Grand National Tips 2010 (8)
Posted on March 16th, 2010 in Grand National 2010
Please now use this thread for all your tips and comments on the Grand National 2010.
Who will you be backing in the Grand National? One of the favourites – Tricky Trickster? Big Fella Thanks? Or more of an outsider like former Topham Chase winner Irish Raptor or unlucky loser at Cheltenham, The Package.
Talking of Cheltenham, don’t forget to also check out our Cheltenham Betting Site for all you need for the four days of the Cheltenham Festival
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This post has 564 comments
#1
March 16th, 2010 17:31
KJ cheltenham festival always seems to be lucky for me.
I remember though in 1982 my first big bet, saw Silver Buck at 8/1 for Gold Cup and thought my birthday had come, because he was always odds on. Did him ante post.
Also on the day did Silver Buck along with The Drunkard Duck and Scots Lane (who won the races both sides of that year’s Gold Cup) in a 10p ew patent.
However being new to racing and up north I did each way equally divided I won £98 then, but I later learned if I’d gone win to win, place to place I’d had won over £200.
Gold Cup winners I had over the years has been
Silver Buck
Bregawn
Forgive N’ Forget
The Thinker (lucky there as start was delayed due to snow and I had enough time to collect my wage and place a bet on him).
Desert Orchid
Cool Dawn
Looks Like Trouble
Best Mate (3 times I think)
Kicking King
Kauto Star
Denman
Kauto Star
Plus a 50/1 champion hurdle in Beech Road.
#2
March 16th, 2010 17:36
Got back £19.68 from my placepot. Must have paid £98.40
#3
March 16th, 2010 18:02
Systemsman back on line with a new battery (funny managed to sort it out today without the new battery all the way for Hongkong!! – fiddled about with the mains line at the back of the laptop and it came on live – if only I tried harder the last week).
Now to move on.
Believe it or not this is the first time for some years I am not having any bets at Cheltenham (last year I showed how you could make money by NOT betting at Cheltenham but sticking to the races on the miner tracks in the same week)saving my big bank and my work for the GN. So all this week I will be re-reviewing my work on the GN and not looking at any Cheltenhm races – hope to be able to report something at the end of the week.
Cant wait for Pablo’s and Daniel’s post Cheltenham GN scores.
#4
March 16th, 2010 18:19
You’ve missed all the action systemsman. Welcome back.
Hope those two at the festival had a good day.
#5
March 16th, 2010 18:29
hey systems’ was just gonna start taking bets on your battery arriving before the national
suppose the bets still on! I am still waiting on a proper oven! gave powers that be a ring today got deafened by their fax machine! they are ‘ijets’ as father ted would say.
#6
March 16th, 2010 19:01
bit of a mixed day at cheltenham for me, backed Menorah AP. Shame Ogee couldnt hang on and had to back super Khyber in the CH and didnt expect that performance from Binocular. was an awful long way out with the arkle tho!
Theatrical Moment looks very useful and was finishing very well, should be a candidate for the scottish national and probably should have gone for the 4 miler tomorrow. looks as if Ollie Magern could do with a national trip
#7
March 16th, 2010 20:51
can anybody let me know how character building looked and ran today, my number one choice for the GN but i was unable to watch race due to pesky work!
#8
March 16th, 2010 22:41
‘hello! where is everybody?’
dave you can watch the race(s) free on sportinglife.com
CB never figured like I expected him to, jumped round, thats all I can say really.
#9
March 16th, 2010 22:48
Charater Building finished 12th (jumped slowly never in contention.
#10
March 16th, 2010 23:27
Not to sure about tomorrow’s placepot, and to be honest in days of the three day festival, I usually have one unlucky day (some years two).
However using Ben’s dosage spreadsheet combined with timeform’s ratings I will attempt to crack day two.
We open with the NH Chase
(10) Mobaasher
(17) Synchronised
That two bets!
Then the Neptune Investment Novice hurdle
(12) Rite Of Passage
Still two bets!
RSA Chase next
(8) Punchestowns
(9) Weapon’s Amnesty
Now doubled to four bets!
Season Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase
(2) Forpadydeplasterer
(6) Master Minded
That brings total bet to eight!
Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
(26) Hampshire Express
(28) Shadow Dancer
That bring total to sixteen bets!
Fred Winter Juvenile novice handicap hurdle
(4) Notus De La Tour
(10) Bothy
(11) Sanctuaire
makes 48 bets.
#11
March 17th, 2010 00:01
Manyriverstocross looks a cracking each way bet – should love the ground
#12
March 17th, 2010 07:58
If Long Run doesnt win the RSA, then I think Burton Point could.
I like Pong De Sivola in the first
and Master Minded WILL win the Champion Chase and at evens represents value in my book!
But im keeping my powder dry today
#13
March 17th, 2010 08:06
No Cane Brake today unfortunately – not looking good for GN now – maybe the good ground put them off (it’ll be watered properly at Aintree)
Like these today:
Finian’s Rainbow & Manyriverstocross
Sir Harry Ormesher & Wishfull Thinking
Tavern Times & Drumbaloo
#14
March 17th, 2010 09:54
Wonder if Stayer and his wife had a good day at the festival, and Daniel on Friday.
#15
March 17th, 2010 10:56
Daniel edwards
can you remember on march 10th, me suggesting chief dan george and you saying already got it on shortlist.
guess which muppet did’nt back it?
changed my mind and had ogee…what a plonker!
#16
March 17th, 2010 11:25
my selections for today are
1.30 – Far more serious (ew) & Youngstown (ew)
2.05 – Holo Ladies ew , Some Present ew & Ghizo ew
2.40 – Citizen Vic ew
3.20 – Well chief ew
4.00- Shadow Dancer ew, Ballyvoille ew, City Thethre ew
#17
March 17th, 2010 12:38
OK, posting my placepot/acca bets. Hope admin doesn’t mind Cheltenham taking up his GN thread!:
£2.50 E/W ACC
becauseicouldntsee
finians rainbow
long run
master minded
£1 E/W ACC
presenting forever
peddlers cross
citizen vic
twist magic
PLACEPOT (10p units)
becauseicouldntsee
mobaasher
presenting forever
finians rainbow
quel esprit
long run
master minded
lake legend
mamlook
silk affair
doctor deejay
hunterview
stormy weather
Good luck all
#18
March 17th, 2010 13:28
said I wasn’t gonna play with money today, but can’t let the first 4miler go, Abbeybraney and Mobaasher for me. First has an aintree entry remember and was on the radar with Arbor Supreme a year or so ago.
Good luck all!
#19
March 17th, 2010 13:43
Abbeybraney PU.
#20
March 17th, 2010 13:49
what I say, I usually loose at cheltenham, bad sign if I back it, always a fight to break even!
Poke de sivola was tempting, I know someone here got it… another de Sivola running later.
Not great from Abbey, jockey stopped racing half way, probably won’t get in anyway, red pen there.
#21
March 17th, 2010 13:55
Placepot down on first leg, that the way it goes.
#22
March 17th, 2010 14:50
To answer the unasked question, no I didnt back Poker De Sivola….and I didnt back Burton Port ew
And im not backing master minded for big dollar in the next
#23
March 17th, 2010 14:53
Citizen Vic took a very heavy fall. Hope he’s ok.
Had Poker De Sivola and Rite of Passage.
#24
March 17th, 2010 14:58
I think he may have broke his neck, was going so well another future prospect bites the dust I think.
Now, didn’t catch who that fella was, think an owner of Weapons Amnesty and therefore owner of WOA, said he’s going for world hurdle then punchestown, so pretty much confirms more lost money!
#25
March 17th, 2010 15:09
One Cape Cross down (Manyriverstocross) but continuing that theme with Cross Appeal in Fred Winter with a proper bet
Smaller bets still running on SHO and WT in Coral
And TT & Drum in Bumper
Good luck with your bets!
#26
March 17th, 2010 15:44
Citizen Vic was put down.
#27
March 17th, 2010 17:25
No joy today – tempted to leave it until Aintree now – although might have more luck on the new course tomorrow…
#28
March 17th, 2010 17:26
Tomorrow looks no easier, with the Jewson, Pertempts, Kim Muir AND the Plate ALL lookig ridicuously trappy.
Anybody who sinks the placepot tomorrow is a heck of a punter!
I think Katchit might surprise a few people in the World Hurdle, if the ground stays quick.
#29
March 17th, 2010 17:27
Oh, and Barbers Shop could be the one in the Ryanair.
#30
March 17th, 2010 17:29
Yep alot of long faces (ha,ha) even today oncourse, tmw odds drifting as noone has any money! ha!
tempted to back ballyfitz over hurdles tmw, may wait as prices going out, though I suppose he may have instructions to save something for aintree?
#31
March 17th, 2010 17:48
are they still expecting rain for tmw?
I’m tempted at 33s to try get my GN stake back with WOA in the world hurdle, not exactly been great for those dead certs so far, BB looks unbeatable sure.
Agree my old friend little Katshit could go well, would be pleasing to watch, but working tmw.
Had two (moneyback)2nds today, a 5th, grr, a PU and a last! I love watching cheltenham, but I hate it, now wheres my guinness!
#32
March 17th, 2010 17:51
Was the any real clues for Aintree over the two days.
My first impression was Character Building needs more runs and probably won’t be ready for national, Offshore Account won’t get in, but if he did must warrent serious attention.
The two to take out were Comply Or Die and Niche Market.
Comply Or Die weakened towards the end and his task in the national looks stiff, however he might not be fully fit for cheltenham, because I think aintree is his target and cheltenhams undulations might not have helped too.
Niche Market, fancied him all season for Aintree, and a quote here from RP race-reader
” Grand National hope NICHE MARKET gave his all under a positive ride and only tired out of things late on. Horses carrying 11 stone plus in this contest always faces a very stiff task and it was a perfectly respectable prep for the national.”
As for the other race the cross country Sizing Australia got hampered, Silver Birch weakened and Priests Leap stayed at the back. To be honest only Priest Leap will make the cut, but I don’t think he’ll take his position at Aintree.
Nothing really of note today
#33
March 17th, 2010 17:58
I thought Niche Market ran well too – he seems to have drifted after the race though, strange!
Hello Bud tomorrow, and he has his ground now.
#34
March 17th, 2010 18:07
NEIL, did you think character building looked right in running? i ask because as he was my no.1 6 pointer i have concerns.he just did not seem to take to it to me with no rythem.i fear he is not fit and will be pulled.can you re-assure me (lie if you have to) lol.
#35
March 17th, 2010 18:14
Yep, NM price has bounced back to 16s but you can still 25s at will hill, wish I’d waited now, but I thought it would shorten with a reasonable showing, odd.
Ran perfect 100f mark I think before yesterday, now had 5 preps, some hard? but seems good enough, read as gone over?
#36
March 17th, 2010 18:25
Mandie, Character building’s only problem to me was lack of fitness, he jumped well but alway towards the back.
#37
March 17th, 2010 18:27
Hi all
Hope you had a good day 2 at Chelt! Peddlers Cross (get in!!) means am ahead but Long Run me down (grrr my banker…)…
GN…see Air Force One fell at Down Royal today.
In the 4m+ at Chelt. the owners of the 4th(Any Currency) were interviewed beforehand and said they wanted a GN horse and it was an impressive staying on 4th…one for the ’11 or ’12 notebook! Also Nina C (the best Carberry riding ) and Katie W getting bans when both were superb and it was the end of a 4m chase…disgraceful…
#38
March 17th, 2010 18:29
I think Ruby (Walsh) who is the most successful jockey at the festival (currently riding), could be the new Lester Piggott. What I mean is the new housewife’s choice for the Grand National.
#39
March 17th, 2010 18:38
Am I missing something but isn’t Deutschland (mid div in Coral Cup) entered in GN??
Whats that all about…is Mullins serious??
#40
March 17th, 2010 19:06
Being working on the GN and would you belive the Eurovison Song Contest (another great annual bet thats easy!)- see OLBG site under “specials” for the winner – a special post will go up by Thursday evening (Showlad one for you).
Back to the GN;
The riddle is will the winner brake the 11.01 barrier or not? I have been struggling with this since Christmas and the only solution for me is to have two lists, one based on the winner on 11.01 or under and another for the winner up to 11.05 – with plenty in both lists.
I say this as both DA and NM just cannot be ignored for so many good reasons so they stay in my top six or so (DA more than NM in my opinion). I’am hoping for some help in resolving this problem from both Pablo and Daniel with their post Cheltenham lists. Now we do have a good shortish list so we dont need to panic but we need to now sort the good ones from the emotional attachments some us have on early fancies but are now poor selections (like my GTL).
#41
March 17th, 2010 19:56
Hi Systemsman,
Why dont you just have the 1 list where it is x amount of lbs above bottom weight. Think this was discussed at length last year (sure it was 12lbs above bottom weight is the trend)
All you have to work out then is roughly what bottom weight will be on the day.
#42
March 17th, 2010 20:15
Bri ,last year 12 pounds nearly covered the field, what if because of the compression of the weights 12 pounds covered the entire field this year.
#43
March 17th, 2010 20:53
Neil – 24lb is the maximum and last year it was 19lb which meant 11’4 and upwards had a tough time – as it transpired 11’6 and 11’4 came 2nd & 3rd but were beaten by 12l and 13 1/4l respectively – but that’s still a long way even after 4 1/2 m
Still think 10’7 or 10’8 will be bottom weight – I think top 51 goes down to 10’8 currently and can see at least 10 coming out if not more
#44
March 17th, 2010 21:02
These 17 10’8 and above might be doubtful:
Albertas Run
Made In Taipan
Possol
Pablo Du Charmil
War Of Attrition
Beat The Boys
Preists Leap
Seven Is My Number
Air Force One
Deutschland
Dooneys Gate
Kornati Kid
Ellerslie George
Follow The Plan
Equus Maximus
Lennon
New Alco
Then you could throw in from the top:
Madison
Notre Pere
Old Vic
And that would be 20
#45
March 17th, 2010 21:09
Good points systems man . Im sitting here watching the barcelona game and the beauty that is Lionel Messi … in between watching him ripping Stuttgart to shreds im also torturing myself about the 11 stone barrier as well. Its like a game of Bruce Forsyths play your cards right . Higher or lower ! Im going to go high and top up my bets on Niche Market and Dream Alliance . Im then going to go low and the ones i,m hovering around at the mo are :
Snowy Morning
Big Fella Thanks
Ballyfitz
Ollie Magern
Hello Bud
Arbor Supreme
Maljimar
So Far Cheltenham has been kind to me
i.e I havent lost any money , indeed in a small profit at the mo..
Looking forward to the Twiston Davies duo tomorrow .
I guess times running out for any more prep runs and were going to have to nail our next 6 horses to the mast pretty soon . ! So far Im not sure Chelts has made much difference ..!
At the mo I think DA and NM are still backable. If the weights go up another 3 pounds however surely thats a bridge too far..
#46
March 17th, 2010 21:25
I backed Megastar in the bumper but ignored the horse that beat him last time. I can’t even get winners when there aren’t any fences to get in the way. Cheltenham is turning into a nightmare. [Not sure about Character Buildings fitness etc but, boy is he a beautiful horse; the perfect dapple grey].
#47
March 17th, 2010 21:39
I’ve had a shocking Chelts so far but will plough on!
One for the indirect national notebook tomorrow is Nostringsattached. He was put firmly in his place by Backstage at Ffos Las so, if he runs well, it will be a positive for Backstage
#48
March 17th, 2010 21:51
Post 41: Bri “All you have to work out then is roughly what bottom weight will be on the day.”
There lies the problem Bri what will bottom weight be? I could wait till near the day and lose some value or try to guess now and gain some value – which is it to be? Might make sence to wait for the next declaration day in late March. However if I am sure a horse is running and has all the right trend it gets my money now -its the top ups on runners like DM and NM (early bets)that are the problem and we cant even be sure about AS who I feel will run (but its only a assumption based on what we know so far).
Not an easy year without a large porfolio of runners on your side. For those who are nervous about this or have little money its probably best to wait until “non runner money back” in the race week – - but its not my style. Maximum risk for mega returns for me!(so long a s I win every two years[50% of the time]).
#49
March 17th, 2010 22:00
Silver Birch good list its similar to mine so I would say that, but I guess we are both using similar trends/stats.
Cant make my mind up about Big Fella Thanks (a possible Saver+ for me) – any help out there for and against?
#50
March 17th, 2010 22:25
What are stats for favourite? I didn’t think they’re too good, something like 2 out of last 10. Then 1 second/joint favourite. Although I thought he was great in his last run, and I was sorry I hadn’t got on at a decent price!
#51
March 17th, 2010 23:16
Couldn’t resist it – back for more…
Marty’s Mission for me in the Byrne Group Plate tomorrow
Nice weight and has been running against some top novices (won his only easier task) and could have gone for the Jewson – jumps very well, stays well, likes good ground (hope Claisse doesn’t water too much!), is owned by the Stewart Family and is 33/1 for a nice each way (have taken some 48s and 50s on Betfair too)
#52
March 18th, 2010 08:07
Right, as I said yesterday, only a fool would be in the placepot today….
Here’s our selections;
1st
Hey Big Spender
China Rock
The Hollinwell
2nd
Palypso De Creek
Alfie Sherrin
Buena Vista
3rd
Barbers Shop
Planet of SOund (I dont agree with this one, but thats democracy)
4th
Big Bucks
5th
Private Be
Sunnyhillboy
Made in Taipan (beaten 2l by Big Zeb this season!)
6th
Galant Nuit
Hello Bud
I just cant figure out the Kim Muir this year and have ended up going with two horses who cant win on the stats! No 6yo winner since 1972 and no 12yo winner since 1981!!
Im also on for singles on;
Palyspo De Creek ew
Barbers Shop
Katchit ew
good luck all
#53
March 18th, 2010 08:20
Slight change of plan – added Poquelin in the Ryanair and taken out Hello Bud -81 lines and if we’re still alive going into the Kim Muir, I can lay Galant Nuit for a place at about 2/1 on Betfair.
Had a quid on Made in Taipan to win too.
that’s me done – how about others put there bets up now, rather than claiming they had them after the event!
#54
March 18th, 2010 09:18
For today’s placepot I’ve think:
1.30 cheltenham
(3) Hey Big Spender
(12) The Midnight Club
(17) Rivaliste
2.05 cheltenham
(5) Alfie Sherrin
(7) Ainama
(13) Smoking Aces
(18) Buena Vista
2.40 cheltenham
(8) Poquelin
(11) Tranquil Sea
3.20 cheltenham
(1) Big Bucks
4.00 cheltenham
(3) Chapoturgeon
(9) Watch My Back
(20) Sunny Hill Boy
4.40 cheltenham
(1) Ballabriggs
(10) Shillingstone
((12) Galant Nuit
I make that 216 bets, good luck everyone and remember the are NO GUARANTEES!
#55
March 18th, 2010 09:39
Selections
TPP1,1,17,1,4243,2409,116509975,1~1,2,2,2,4243,2409,116510002,1~1,3,2,3,4243,2409,116510074,1~1,4,1,4,4243,2409,116510113,1~1,5,3,5,4243,2409,116510167,1~1,5,19,5,4243,2409,116510182,1~1,6,4,6,4243,2409,116510266,1~1,6,23,6,4243,2409,116510284,1~#es=1;
Placepot Places
1 Rivaliste (17) 4
2 Ballyfitz (2) 4
3 Barbers Shop (2) 3
4 Big Buck’s (1) 3
5 Chapoturgeon (3) 4
I’m So Lucky (19)
6 Hello Bud (4) 4
Ma Yahab (23)
Unit Stake 4@: 0.50
Stake: 2.00
Total Stake: 2.00
#56
March 18th, 2010 10:11
pablo; I made a note of Martys Mission last time he ran, and then on Tuesday Andy Stewart was asked for his best bet of the week and he said Martys Mission in…The Jewson, so I backed him yesterday only to find, to my horror that he wasn’t running. I’ve had to back him in the other race, now [if the owner doesn't know where they're going to run what chance is there for the rest of us?]. And Davy Russell thinks Made in Taipan is running out of his skin at the moment [I am NOT going to argue with Davy Russell]. However, this is coming from a deranged woman who has had a bet on Cousin Vinny today [he can't go from Champion the Wonder Horse to Muffin the Mule overnight..can he?????]
#57
March 18th, 2010 10:24
Talking of Davy Russell I also quite like Time Electric in the Pertemps but will wait and see what they say about the ground first
#58
March 18th, 2010 11:24
Ok here’s my placepot for today:
Hey Big Spender (3)
Nicanor (8)
Prince Erik (10)
Cross Kennon (21)
Poquelin (8)
Deep Purple (4)
Big Buck’s (1)
Watch my back (9)
From Dawn to Dusk (21)
Galant Nuit (12)
Shillingstone (10)
Good luck everyone!
#59
March 18th, 2010 11:38
Had a look at the sporting life placepot suggestion, last year I won over £400 with their suggestions.
1.30 cheltenham
2 Seven Is My Number
13 Dave’s Dream
15 The Hollinwell
2.05 cheltenham
5 Alfie Sherrin
6 Don’t Push It
7 Ainama
2.40 cheltenham
2 Barbers Shop
7 Planet Of Sound
3.20 cheltenham
1 Big Bucks
6 Karabak
4.00 cheltenham
9 Watch My Back
10 Mister Goldrick
12 Atouchbetweenacara
4.40 cheltenham
1 Ballabriggs
10 Shillingstone
12 Galant Nuit
This though is 324 bets.
#60
March 18th, 2010 11:40
My placepot:
1.30 cheltenham
Hey Big Spender
The Hollinwell
Tanks for that
2.05 cheltenham
Alfie Sherrin
Kayf Aramis
Palypso de Creek
2.40 cheltenham
Poquelin
Scotsirish
3.20 cheltenham
Big Bucks
4.00 cheltenham
Victoria’s Groom
The Sawyer
Sunnyhill Boy
4.40 cheltenham
Ballabriggs
Boychuk
Nostringsattached
#61
March 18th, 2010 11:56
The one I like that I havent backed is Deep Purple ew in the Ryanair at 40/1.
Francombe on the Morning Line this morning also fancied him, and he has a habit of finding one at a big price.
Given my record this week, he is almost guaranteed to place given that I am not on him!!
If I get anything returned from PDC in the Pertempts I will have a nibble.
I still cant figure out why Made in Taipan is the price he is. It just doesnt make sense!
#62
March 18th, 2010 12:01
Slight correction their 10 in the 4.00 is not Mister McGoldrick but Tarotino. The rest are correct.
#63
March 18th, 2010 12:02
everytime I reconsider Hello Bud in the big one, I realise he has a fight just to get in on 10’6!
Like your list of low weights Silver,
were you considering Ollie before cheltenham? I wasn’t, thought he ran a great trial, ran like a different horse, taking to settling tucked in and staying on.
Hope you all have a profitable day today,
yep couldn’t resist a flutter too, two are down for the national, plus sunnyhill boy and tranquil sea. Hope all come back safe today.
#64
March 18th, 2010 12:31
Hi Kj – yes ive been nibbling away at Ollie Magern over the past few weeks at insulting odds. Your right , If Ollie tries to blaze a trail – a la Charlie Hall chase – his goose will be cooked . If he gets good ground ( absolutely vital) and tucks in behind and pops away then hes a very intriguing outsider.. Still a nagging doubt that something a bit more progressive will do for him . However I think he could surprise a few . I dont really see much difference between Ollie and State of Play yet Ollie is a much more attractive price for a few shillings . Only 4 months ago he got done over the last by TamarinBleu and Deep purple.Thats top class form . I hope they use the same tactics as per Tuesdays race. I can see him creeping away at the back and coming into it late. I know hes only small but his jumping is normally pretty good. Surely theyve nothing to lose albeit the last mile is totally unknown territory
#65
March 18th, 2010 12:36
Daniel – I also agree on Deep purple . Seems a ridiculous price for a Charlie Hall Winner. If they hadnt turned the taps on , Id be getting really stuck into him. Wonder whether now the ground might be a bit dead for him . Despatched my dad to the bookies with a £2 quid wager on it.. Hope all have an enjoyable day !. Theres been some money for the Bud. That would suggest better is expected today especially on the faster ground . If he runs into a place today his odds will plummet.
#66
March 18th, 2010 12:50
Thinking of a nibble for ballyfitz, another small horse but this one can’t jump and I think will stay. Really risky one to back no doubt!
come in alot on betfair I see, still 66s at will hill. If he places today even though hurdles, which he can jump, that will halve don’t we think?
Ryan air looks a good race, not confident with my selection, what with my luck this yr, my first instinct which I ignored at big price was Scotsirish, but there are many.
#67
March 18th, 2010 13:04
I went and placed a £5 e.w double on Hello Bud for today and the National, i got the manager to ring through to get a special price and i got 400/1 and just when i thought i knew all about racing and odds the trader said that they would accept the bet but in the event of a winning place bet it would be settled at 1/8 of the odds….yes thats right 1/8, they make the rules up as they go along i am sure.
I checked with another leading bookie and it’s correct the odds complier makes his own price for the win and place options…..and then it’s a case of take it or leave it.
So in real terms Hello Bud to place today and place in the National, when there is still doubt that he will even get in the race with combined odds of 50/1 is poor value of anyones money.
#68
March 18th, 2010 13:13
I see Silver by Nature has pulled out of the Midlands National.He’s heading for the Scottish National or Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on April 24.This horse has serious class in my opinion.
#69
March 18th, 2010 13:37
That’s me out then…doh..
#70
March 18th, 2010 13:57
Sporting life’s placepot down did it for old time sake 5p unit £16.20. However my personal selections was third at best. Also had winner in another bet (lucky 15 ew ,25p unit ).
#71
March 18th, 2010 14:16
Both Daniel’s and mine placepot are still going.
#72
March 18th, 2010 14:18
Well done! Two EW’s landed for me, 2nd and 4th.
#73
March 18th, 2010 14:18
We’re alive…just – China Rock was 5th and being overtaken in the home straight but seemed to get a second win.
I picked out Buena Vista for the placepot – getting a 20lb swing for a 2l length beating by Kayf Aramis last year! 2lb lower than that run and 8lb lower than when 5th in this 2 years ago….
Did I back him??
Did I heck….
frustrating isnt the word.
PDC was nowhere, which I am surprised by.
#74
March 18th, 2010 14:28
Daniel the nothing worse than picking a winner and not backed it.
#75
March 18th, 2010 14:36
Well after this week im getting used to it…
Had Menorah(14s) Poker De Sivola (14s) and now Bunea Vista (18s) in my placepot/jackpot and not backed them this week.
Thank god for Chief Dan George at 33/1
Im going tomorrow….you can bet the run will end then, when I will be backing all and sundry!
#76
March 18th, 2010 14:58
regretting not having two in the world hurdle now!
#77
March 18th, 2010 15:00
Good luck for tomorrow Daniel, I think Tricky Trickster will run a huge race behind the principal two.
Talking of huge race top weight (for national ) Albertas Run ran a fantastic race. My placepot selection was second pending a Stewart enquiry.
Not had to much luck with Stewart enquiry over the years.
One year picked a winner, thought I’d pick it up later, only for a Stewart enquiry to be called and my winner was disqualified. This was before bookies paid out on both results.
Only had one gone for me. In the whitbread backed Docklands Express who won it via a Stewart Enquiry.
Hope Stayer and his wife enjoyed their day out on first day, or are they there all week.
#78
March 18th, 2010 15:05
I just wonder if TT is quick enough – he was a long way behind them in the Aon before Denman fell. I fear that he might get outpaced a touch, before staying on for 4th maybe.
#79
March 18th, 2010 15:10
WAR OF ATTRITION OWNER HAS JUST STATED STRAIGHT TO PUNCHESTOWN AFTER TODAY AND THEN THATS IT. THATS ME DOWN THEN.
#80
March 18th, 2010 15:16
Thanks for the information, Mandie, must have missed that.
#81
March 18th, 2010 15:29
Big Bucks wins, thought this would have made a national horse at one time.
#82
March 18th, 2010 15:32
Another ew 2nd for me, best day so far.
#83
March 18th, 2010 15:52
Neil – who is Stewart??!!
Big Bucks – never in doubt was it!! Dunno what I was so worried about now.
#84
March 18th, 2010 15:55
Sorry must have misspelled meant steward
#85
March 18th, 2010 16:00
Right, so who comes 3rd in the GC tomorrow, behind the Big Two?
Imperial Commander? Still progressing, course specialist, but will he stay?
Tricky Trickster? Will he struggle with a fast pace? Will he get too far detached and then stay on past beaten horses for 3rd? maybe…
Cooldine – hasnt won this season and the RSA last year was poor.
My Will – 5th last year but doesnt appear to be better than that this year.
What do people think?
#86
March 18th, 2010 16:06
Well, coming round the final bend I thought we were out of it – Sunnyhillboy stayed on like a train!!
Come on Galant Nuit!!!
#87
March 18th, 2010 16:56
only heard the commentry but it did not sound that greater run for Hello Bud, but i guess the trip was on the short side for him.
Thus far Cheltenham has not given many clues for the National, do you all agree?
#88
March 18th, 2010 16:58
Good news, bad news !
Good news another placepot up, Ballabriggs won & Galant Nuit third. Hello Bud ran a great race, but tired.
Bad news another casualty in Isn’t That Lucky. (At least it was reported the screens are up.
You know the only good news about the 1993 Grand National, the one that was void, was the was no casualties.
#89
March 18th, 2010 16:59
I’ve backed Tricky Trickster at 66/1 and Calgary Bay at 100/1; can’t decide whether to ew the other long priced horses as well. Some strange results at Cheltenham this week. So much for Mr Stewart and his Martys Mission, especially with his Gwanako finishing well to get 5th.Note to oneself ‘Never listen to owners or trainers’.
#90
March 18th, 2010 16:59
I cant remember puzzled when so many leading protagonists for the big one have fluffed their lines in the lead up to the big one. The only ones that emerge with any credit are possibly Ollie Magern and Niche Market…
Ballyfitz and Hello Bud out with the washing. Air Force one fell . Joe Lively beaten out of sight . Chelsea Harbour ran a nightmare at the weekend. Still as big a conundrum as ever methinks ..!
#91
March 18th, 2010 17:00
Oh . Palypso de Creek finished right behind Ballyfitz.
#92
March 18th, 2010 17:11
Totally agree Puzzler – no big clues and ‘break through horses’ just never happened.
Hello Bud nice work out 7th of 24 all bodes REALLY well I feel for GN
#93
March 18th, 2010 17:13
I have to say a nice rest period now, in the form of his life, great weight in GN and Eric’s Charm is more appealing as each day goes by…
#94
March 18th, 2010 17:56
this placepot lark is easy!
#95
March 18th, 2010 18:16
Come on people Hello Bud 7th at Cheltemham at a short distance – I call that a fine prep run (juts like SM and AS had recently). The last thing I wanted was for HB to win today and be over the hill for the GN – winning at Cheltenham is bad form for the GN anyway. No a good prep run is just what the trainer ordered and me!- should sharpen him up no end.
Now we need that one race, just that one race – the Grand National when Hello Bud holds onto a bit for that finish – I see no reason why he cant do it (along with a few others, but AS looks better by the day).
Anyone agree?
#96
March 18th, 2010 18:17
Well done Pablo – dont forget you post Cheltenham list please.
#97
March 18th, 2010 18:28
This year won over £200 on todays Placepot.
News on Isn’t That Lucky, had to leave the course in a horse ambulance. Not reported as dead, maybe he can recover, I hope so.
#98
March 18th, 2010 18:29
Yes, on further reflection Systems , 7th isnt all that Bad. We only have to look back to last year when Mon Mome could only finish 8th in his prep run in the Midlands Nat . Im dying to see the replay on the sporting life website but its not came up yet . Bud is still a definite for my top 6
#99
March 18th, 2010 18:33
This is how racing post saw Hello Bud’s latest run.
Likes to front run but had to settle in the chasing group this time. He has plenty of stamina and kept galloping, and this was a step in the right direction with his target of the Grand National in mind.
#100
March 18th, 2010 18:43
Had a look on Cheltenham TV . One gets the impression that maybe that race was always a stride too quick for Hello Bud . Given it was over 3m its no real surprise. I thought that was an adequate trial and with 10-6 on his back I think hes a definite player especially if the ground remains goodish. One for the shortlist
#101
March 18th, 2010 19:14
Did not see Hello Bud’s run today as a positive and he has gone further down my list.
Well done on the placepot Neil!
#102
March 18th, 2010 21:22
Thanks Seagull, my ambition in placepots though is to land a typical grand national day placepot, when the dividend pays around £10,000. Did land grand national placepot one year, when Red Marauder won, had Smarty & Papillon in the national leg. Think as placepots went it was a very small dividend.
#103
March 18th, 2010 23:19
well another day another loss! worse today with just 4 bets resulting in a 2nd, never play at cheltenham!
Watched HB just now, don’t think a bad run, kept going with pace by jock, good practice, did look tired crossing the line.
Hard to tell how fast races are going, overall feeling I get from our national horses runs so far is they’re a bit slow! and I hope at aintree this is still counteracted by the extreme distance even if they go ‘hell for leather’ the first lap. It is now a race about being able to keep up reasonably on fast first lap and/or having great finishing.
#104
March 19th, 2010 08:25
Does anybody have the definitive list of 30/30 stats horses – I trawled through the list and came up with the following last night :
NicheMarket
Dream Alliance
My Will
Le Beau Bai
Snowy Morning
Air Force One
Character Building
Gone to Lunch
State of Play
King Johns Castle
Ollie Magern
Irish Raptor
Mr Pointment
Hello Bud
Any glaring omissions ? especially 3 x 3m (1 at 28f)
If so it would suggest theres only 14 to concentrate on if we are disciples of the faith. At least half a dozen of these I believe could also be removed as looking like extremely unlikely winners . Could leave us with a short list of about 8 horses that if 30/30 stat holds up are the ones we need to concentrate on.
#105
March 19th, 2010 11:40
Silver Birch “If so it would suggest theres only 14 to concentrate on if we are disciples of the faith. At least half a dozen of these I believe could also be removed as looking like extremely unlikely winners”
Working on similar lines myself but I have included Arbor Supreme as have others as he is so close to the 30/30 stat and miner changes/modifications can be expected to any stat from time to time (remember the French bred issues, or the blinkers issue).
So which six do you think we could safely remove (having now included AS ofcourse)?
#106
March 19th, 2010 12:06
Systems
Lets see now
The Original 14 and how to reduce further
NicheMarket – Keep -
Dream Alliance – Keep
My Will – Keep
Le Beau Bai – 7yo,needs a bog and not cert to run – runs uttox tomorrow – ditch
Snowy Morning – Keep
Air Force One – Dont think hell turn up – ditch
Character Building – only 2 prep runs – ditch
Gone to Lunch – has disappeared off betfair -whats going on ??
State of Play – only one prep run – ditch
King Johns Castle – showed nothing in 3 prep runs over hurdles- ditch
Ollie Magern – keep – finished 7th at cheltenham in the William Hill Chase
Irish Raptor – keep but sorely worried about his staying powers
Mr Pointment – not ran all season – ditch
Hello Bud – ran 7th in the Kim Muir keep
So that leaves !!
Niche Market
Dream Alliance
My Will
Snowy Morning
Ollie Magern
Irish Raptor
Hello Bud
#107
March 19th, 2010 12:07
Add Iris DeBalme and Arbor Supreme..!
Niche Market
Dream Alliance
My Will
Snowy Morning
Ollie Magern
Irish Raptor
Hello Bud
Arbor Supreme
Iris De Balme
#108
March 19th, 2010 12:09
Hopefully Ive not missed any others . At least thats a manageable list to go to war with !
#109
March 19th, 2010 12:14
Eric’s Charm fits the 3 x 3m inc one at 28f+. So where does he fall down Silver?
He for SURE is on my list.
#110
March 19th, 2010 12:23
TOP 6 TIPSTERS LEAGUE ANNOUNCEMENT
Just to say Team that the next Phase (phase 4) will be opened immediately after news on Tuesday (or whenever it filters through lol)is released of the next decs stage at Aintree.
With the extra phase of the TOP 6 TIPSTERS added and voted on pre-Chelts, we were all looking forward to the post Chelts TOP 6 vote opening after today’s end of the meet.
But of course it is pointless start today without the next decs info.
So to clarify next TOP 6 TIPSTERS vote opens as soon as next decs stage info is released.
#111
March 19th, 2010 12:32
ollie magern is interesting, like I said yesterday, a bit of retraining been going on there. 7th is a 20/24 stat last time out, or that could not inc last yr so 20/25 just, either way that still keeps HB in too.
#112
March 19th, 2010 12:38
Cheer Showlad – then I need to add him to my list : so thats
Niche Market
Dream Alliance
My Will
Snowy Morning
Ollie Magern
Irish Raptor
Hello Bud
Arbor Supreme
Iris De Balme
Erics Charm
Im giving Iris once last chance tomorrow . Anything less than a top 3 and I think he will have to go which leaves 9 to sift through..
#113
March 19th, 2010 13:45
If bottom weight 10’6-10’8 say, looking quite possible, its more likely that horses weighted upto 11’5 (maybe more) could win, Madison meets the yr before stats as does Mon Mome obviously with course wins. Both have looked good this term staying up with pace and staying on in races too short.
I think HB and Trust Fund, who runs today and also meets the 30/30 both on 10-6 both may not get in.
Ruling out SOP has to be dangerous surely on 10’11.
Hope all are safe today, especially Denman and Kauto Star, and MM and TT ofcourse. Can’t wait, what are we hoping to see from our GN GC runners?
#114
March 19th, 2010 14:06
With reference to Post 48 by Systemsman
Bottom weight will be between 10:06 & 10:08
If you go with 10:08 then everything above 11:06 you can rule out.
I personally will be going with 10:06 being bottom and will rule out anything above 11:04 for my value bets now as i can always add a saver on the day if bottom weight is slightly higher.
Back to today im going with Imperial Commander in the GC
#115
March 19th, 2010 14:14
Apologies the stat for weight above bottom weight is actually no more than 11lbs above bottom weight so obviously knock 1lb off the weights i stated in post No 114.
#116
March 19th, 2010 14:39
thanks for that pointless ref Bri?! Is that you Brian?! I think Crisp, Minnehomma, Thaimark and Pablo although possibly got some of wrong people there and I can’t be bothered to find the posts from around weights out, were thinking 10’6- 10’8 probable first! if you wanna be funny.
This place does go round in circles a bit, sometimes relevant points seem ignored, then the masses come round to it as something new and written in stone! Hopefully this is a sign we are all on the same page in the end.
11 lb less than top weight WAS a solid stat as I remember til last yr! I’m going to find it hard to ignore MM on 11’7 if bottom 10’8. As he would miss the 11lb above bottom weight by a pound!
#117
March 19th, 2010 14:42
Goog old pricewise…DE Williams ew sets me up for being ahead at Chelt!!
Actually think the 2 hunters (Roulez Cool and Trust Fund who won the Aintree f/htrs last April)are really worth watching today with a view to GN. Still (so far) only think The Package (CD George prob wont get in) has come out of Chelt with enhanced prospects. We can take a view but Hello Bud was dire and NM average but seems they are ‘held on to’ because people have beentipping them up for months…
Not saying I dont agree they still match all the fantastic stats etc that people have presented to usbut am an old school recent form man…
Am saving my top 6 till after the next dec. stage (Tues)…
And cmon Denman….!!!
Oh and as said t’uther day Nina is the best Carberry riding….how about Katie the best Walsh? lol…
#118
March 19th, 2010 14:50
KJ How did the 11lb above bottom weight get broken last year!
Im not being funny and also not claiming to have said it will 10:06 – 10:08 first.
The only reason im saying it now as last year i kept saying dont ignore Frrench horses and dont rule out any horse over 50-1 early on that the posts got buried so quickly that come the day they were lost to the masses.
One of the reasons why not many looked at MM last year was because of his price.
Decemeber 2008 he was on at least 3 peoples list as meeting the trends but when he was priced over 50-1 he got scratched from these lists.
#119
March 19th, 2010 15:07
Bri, different stat of 11lb below top weight. MM was 9lb below. I’ve got it written in my notebook, along with my first list of fancies, top of list MM! talked out of it, esp after Midlands nat being a big no-no! that was reflected in the price going out from 33s. Both of us if I remember correctly thought he ran well, but I ruled him out being persuaded by general feeling here, thats still my worry.
Things do get buried, I’d like to say I try to take note of things I agree with and sometimes don’t write in agreement there and then, so it is important not to take ‘no comments’ as disagreement I suppose with everyone realising things at different times.
A classic kj cheltenham, only bet in 1600 today, resisted backing Bertie and Kennel Hill there, coulda won my moneyback! b*****!
Gold Cup is here, good luck, but safe journeys all!
#120
March 19th, 2010 15:10
Bri the stat wasn’t broken last year. Bottom weight last year was 10-5 making anything below 11-3 in range. Kj though is prepared to be flexible about this stat.
#121
March 19th, 2010 15:26
Kauto falls!!!
#122
March 19th, 2010 15:28
Wow Imperial Commander but how about that run from Mon Mome for the GN on the strength of that ????!!!!!
#123
March 19th, 2010 15:30
I knew Kauto would fall, thank god he didn’t break his neck, was a bit close. MM brilliant prep ey!
#124
March 19th, 2010 15:32
Well my GN fund looking very healthy after Imperial commander won.
Lets hope i can carry that into the Big one itself
#125
March 19th, 2010 15:35
how many doubles there hey, well done Bri and all that got it, his box at NTDs is idealic! happy horse.
#126
March 19th, 2010 15:39
Want to see the replay but think MM has just run himself into my top six esp as TT was stuffed………I know it was beat 20+l but at levels to Denman and IC and staying on…..can’t be ignored now!!!
Just hope one of the top weights stays in so MM doesnt go up!!!
Please dont let Roulez Cool or Trust Fund run blinders now and confuse me even more!!!
#127
March 19th, 2010 15:42
wish I’d had money on MM in that he got 3rd! 100-1 again! out of his depth hey, wish I’d money on MM for the GN already even tho 11-7 as short as 10-1 now, ridiculous. Got Trust Fund in the next Nick, so probably be last
#128
March 19th, 2010 15:43
Well been given a free bet to equal stakes as part of the 4-1 offer with Bet365. Hard to choose between Trust Fund and Baby run but think i will go with TF.
#129
March 19th, 2010 15:44
Yes, Trust Fund
Mon Mome now GN 2nd favourite!
#130
March 19th, 2010 15:51
Managed to get 30′s for MM a few weeks ago for GN, and was on ew way today : ) Also on IC only £1 though.
#131
March 19th, 2010 15:55
Good shout Jackie. I didn’t bet on the GC as my heart is with Denman (although didn’t enjoy seeing Kauto fall) and couldn’t fancy IC after King George but fair play to NTD and team.
Hopefully it will end the Kauto as good as Arkle nonsense too….great horse to be sure but not up there with Himself…and as a GN blog let us not forget L’Escargot…2 GC wins and a GN and 2 GN places……that beats Kauto in my opinion…!!
#132
March 19th, 2010 16:11
Yay, best day for me, on Baby and trust fund. Were you on Baby in the end Bri?
#133
March 19th, 2010 16:28
I think we need to take a long hard look at all of The Twisters runners in the National this year!
#134
March 19th, 2010 16:30
Yes just noted MM promoted to 2nd fav and TT eased out to 14′s and 16′s.
Also War of Att. taken out of betting and My Will 999/1…anybody any definate news on the intentions??
#135
March 19th, 2010 16:34
Maureeen…and this is off top of my head…but re NTD runners…you will find IC and Baby R have won today as have had a good lay off and were fresh. Most of his others (in my humble opinion) run too often or too quickly again and all his potential GN horses have been v. busy this winter…
Not saying he wont get a good run out of one of em at least but I can’t be persuaded….yet!!
#136
March 19th, 2010 16:43
well done Jackie, If I was on TF the rest of you should be on Baby Run
I have no luck at cheltenham, next yr I will have to get one of you to put money on for me, cause as soon as I do they loose.
)
Trust Fund not too bad, tight camera work meant no chance of watching him after he had to step over a couple of fallers (intelligently done) I do think he likes sun on his back, like Ruby needs smile wiped off his face (smiling never a good sign for Ruby
Doubted MM would ever be 100-1 again, said I’d back him if he was, didn’t, ha! he was 150-1 yesterday too, now got to decide quick if I’ll have any of the 16s left, for a horse still just likely to miss the less than 12 lb ABOVE bottom weight, and if the top weights come out well,…anyone else thinking hard?
I’d agree Maureen NTD stable lookin good, but not that strong for GN, Ballyfitz stepped at a hurdle yesterday just like when he’s over fences, raced alot of hard races and back to the biggest fences next, a worry as he doesn’t semm the brightest button. Thought Irish Raptor was running today? not that I fancy it at all.
Hope they take out 2nd last fence for rest of today.
#137
March 19th, 2010 16:54
Sorry to hear about yr Chelt KJ. Had 5 ew places and Peddlers Cross so am ahead plus I had forgotten one of my quirky bets which I cashed in(the local Ladb’s manager a mate of mine so he always takes em)which was Aliastair Cook to captain England before 31/12/10 £5 at 17/2….so thats my weekend paid for!!!
Dont see NTD horse winning the GN (re my above comments) but I bet he has 1 in a place….
#138
March 19th, 2010 17:27
Pigeon Island wins the last; he’s winning with horses that can’t even jump!
#139
March 19th, 2010 17:35
Hello everyone, how did Tricky trickster do in gold cup in regards for national, also was the any other impressive runners today.
#140
March 19th, 2010 17:41
Tricky Trickster a terrible disappointment; struggled to keep up with the pace from quite early on..not sure if he pulled up but he was nowhere to be seen at the end of the race.
#141
March 19th, 2010 17:48
So the end of an era, remember KS falling in QMCC
Saw Mon Mome come in third, but didn’t catch the rest.
So we have a new Rambo in Mon Mome, the horse no one wanted a year ago, and will bust the 12 pound above bottom if he wins again. Yet all season has nothing wrong.
#142
March 19th, 2010 18:05
Neil S
Mon Mome ran a blinder if only a staying on past beaten horses 3rd but 23l beating by Denman when 34l worse in….not to be sniffed at!
The rest of GN runners in GC. T Trickster was dire as was My Will and the 2 Wilson horses (dont get me started..) verging on cruel…taking on KS, Denman and IC at levels with no prep then on to Aintree….grrrrr…so wrong in so many ways!!
I think MM is proving to be a better horse than we may have thought…..
#143
March 19th, 2010 18:07
Just gotta learn never to bet at cheltenham!
as someone said early this week, I hate cheltenham!
Ofcourse Pigeon Island won, I’ve backed him 10times won and lost, but didn’t back him there! It was a sure thing!
My Will ran extremely poor by his standards, shame if he is all run out, at 10! I think it more likely that TT was schooled, I’m not being serious, shocking.
Although GC is top class and top speed!!! different to GN in a way but lets face it if you run well in GC you got a great GN chance.
MM really stayed on, I mean properly, a true stayer, sure others were beaten, but not like other hopes that have been at best ok! and/or running wins or places against poor opposition. He is hardy, but yes the small matter of 11-7, eek. Also moderate early speed in race helped I felt, which not going to get at aintree.
Foxhunters seemed fast today I think, flat out, quite nationalesque! too fast for Trust Fund? how do we equate these undulating speeds, its a problem. Here we have two horses that are going to be mid field first lap, I don’t like it! Comply or die all the way!
#144
March 19th, 2010 18:18
KJ do you think the rain had slowed it down a stride or two as all the winners today (apart from Triumph) seemed to be v.tired?
Forecast for Aintree is for a wetter one than for a few years so might have to factor this in and you do find the jocks go that stride slower if the going soft or worse even in GN!!
Yes am confused as the 2 best runs at Chelt have negs re GN …The Package only 7yo and MM 11-7… and my one man campaign to have penalties after GN weights out would get Chief DG, Faasel and Gallent Nuit a run at Aintree as their good performances at Chelt warrant!!
#145
March 19th, 2010 18:23
Silver Birch agreed on your list other than one marked below:
Niche Market
Dream Alliance
My Will
Snowy Morning
Ollie Magern
Irish Raptor
Hello Bud
Arbor Supreme
Iris De Balme – exclude (whats he done so far?)
Erics Charm
Tricky Trickster found out today as I suspected but did not have the courage to post on here. I think we have to admit that both DA and NM still have possabilities but we will know more when final weights are clear.
A message to all the late Mon Mome fans – dont get carried away. He came 3rd 30L behind Imperial Commander and was the best of the “all so rans” (with Kauto Star falling). Its shows he a good runner but no more like his GN win did in a poor year. Remember he will carry at least 11.07 and will have to bralke all recent trends – would have to be something “special” to do that (which he’s not)!.
Gold Cup winners cant win the Grand National in recent years. I have never forgotten Master Oats who won the Gold Cup in 1995 with 12.00 and then could only come 7th in the GN with 11.10 and he was at his very best that month)and in 1997 came 5th with 11.10. Now Mon Mome is no Master Oats and if anything has probably blown himself up running in the Gold Cup so close to the GN. Could get a place, I admit but a second win – I think not. Anyone agree?
Have to say I am very happy for us all about that Tricky so and so!
#146
March 19th, 2010 18:29
Systems…fair points re MM but am not a latecomer as backed it in 08 when fair 10th but overlooked last year.
My point is he was 23l behind Denman today (we can trust his past record) when 34l worse in…Not many do the GC then GN although Rough Quest for one and Minnehomma in recent years ran good GC’s and GN’s…but even fewer do it the other way…ie win a GN and run well in GC….Hedgehunter did and he was a very very good GN horse…so I am suggesting MM might be of similar stature…doesn’t mean it will win in 3 weeks but if stays on 11-7 then has to be placed although now too short for an ew punt!!!
#147
March 19th, 2010 18:40
I really can’t see Mon Mome winning another National. He did well to win ONE if you ask me! I expect him to be top weight once the final field is sorted out and it seems an impossible task.
The big question from today is will Ruby now decide to ride Big Fella Thanks in the National?
#148
March 19th, 2010 19:08
Systems : agreed
Iris is likely to get pulled out of my list tomorrow . Ive heard they are expecting sizeable rainfall overnight which makes his task tomorrow even harder . Assuming he goes we are left with the following.. Keep the faith!
Niche Market
Dream Alliance
My Will
Snowy Morning
Ollie Magern
Irish Raptor
Hello Bud
Arbor Supreme
Erics Charm
#149
March 19th, 2010 19:09
i think ruby will as i have stated several times and been ignored on here ride BFT.
systems, cant see why MM has any lesser chance after running in gold cup as he ran mid.g/n last year over 4mile 2f.in soft going with 11’12 on his back and then as we know won at aintree.
#150
March 19th, 2010 19:26
‘Late Mon Mome fans’ systemsman, come on!
I too have mentioned MM having a chance every bloody yr! along with several others, do you think you are a bit blinkered to see him? agreed to win with 11-7 minimum! would be near impossible and a place more likely, although hard too and I’d like you anti MM’ers to recognise him as ‘good’ thats all, if he gets top5!
I don’t know, wins with 11’1 after not ‘blowing himself up’ carrying 11-12 in the midlands nat slog last yr, what do you want blood!
I am more worried about Arbor Supreme not having beaten much. Arguably best performance beating BA when he carried 9’10!!!! and BA 11’1.
Although had a very good run, which meant we didn’t write him off last time, who did he beat?! and seems very ground dependant! So who is really getting carried away here. Although I don’t sound keen I do like the horse, with several been watching for a yr+ but well put it this way if MM ran off a winnable weight lets say 11’1, there’d be no competition. Not really fancying any strongly in the 30/30 strict list, feel a bit annoyed Phil got it so right I suppose! now the real work begins.
I was with you Mandie! I’ll have to back him then I said I would! but 8-1 now!
#151
March 19th, 2010 19:28
Mandie i’m with you BFT all the way. Although i don’t like that he is now favourite. My list is
BFT
Arbor Supreme
State of Play
Ellerslie George
Eric Charm
Snowy morning (ew)
moment of Madness Bets
trust Fund
Seven is my number
Mr pointment
Gone tolunch (bye bye)
The horse i’m a maybe on now arre
Beat the boys
can’t buy time.
#152
March 19th, 2010 19:40
sorry backstage not beat the boys
#153
March 19th, 2010 20:00
As there can only be onw winner I have taken a different analysis and looked at each weight group seperately to try and determine who would win in the 11-10, 11-9 category etc. This is what i think. Please feel free to scruitinise.
11-10 Madison Du Berlais
11–8 Our Vic
11-7 Mon Mome
11-6 Black Apalachi
11-5 Comply Or Die
11-4 Tricky Trickster
11-3 Dream Alliance
11-2 My Will
11-1 War of Attricttion
11-0 Back Stage
10-13 Snowy Morning
10-12 Big Fella Thanks
10-11 State of Play
10-10 Ellerlsie George
10-9 Eric Charm
10-8 Arbor Surpeme/Cane Brake
10-7 Mr Pointment
10-6 Razor Royale
Now that list can be narrowed down further by removing everything above 11-6.
11-6 Black Apalachi (not enough runs)
11-5 Comply Or Die (to much weight)
11-4 Tricky Trickster (no chance)
11-3 Dream Alliance
11-2 My Will
11-1 War of Attrittion (wont run)
11-0 Back Stage
10-13 Snowy Morning
10-12 Big Fella Thanks
10-11 State of Play
10-10 Ellerlsie George
10-9 Eric Charm
10-8 Arbor Surpeme/Cane Brake
10-7 Mr Pointment
10-6 Razor Royale
Now thats a fair old list still but if you apply the stats, form and won’t run they can be narrowed further.
#154
March 19th, 2010 20:14
Mandie if BFT wins with Ruby and I’m not on as too short, well, I’ll be gutted, but happy that the only other person to give him any points (before last list) has won at a big price! thats what I like!
Sheen worn off alot of runners as an extreme mix of hard campaigns and lack of runs collide!
have liked another extreme this yr, ages, 8 v 12yr olds – will they cancel each other out!
I have backed some prefered 9/10yr olds in Snowy, Niche and the Dream, still good hopefully but not confident they haven’t peaked and if weights go up, relying on a dodgy jumper!
Anyone got any stats for tmw midlands nat?
I just looked at the list, Le Beau Bai, Kornati Kid, and Iris are the GN contenders there, plus L’Aventure a fav on here is running.
#155
March 19th, 2010 20:23
KJ I hope you don’t mean me with the late MM fans remark, as I mentioned how well its first hurdle race was run against Comply Or Die’s run. Didn’t put any money on then as the season was just starting and the information was hard to assess.
Then the weights came out and MM had too much weight for the analysts amongst us, yet I also said I feel that a dual grand national winner is due. A long term pattern, if you like although it doesn’t really work like that.
I’ve also joined the Rambo, er I mean Mon Mome fan base by putting my cash on him. Wish I put it on sooner though.
#156
March 19th, 2010 20:28
Am sorry but can’t have this knocking of MM. I can imagine the salivating if it was TT 3rd today (wow 3rd in a GC…must run a big race in the GN…)…..
Last year MM beat My Will (as a benchmark) 13 1/2 l getting 4lb….today on levels stuffed My Will out of sight (and TT for that matter…who was fav before today for GN I hasten to add..) and in GN will be giving 3lb to TT and 5 to My Will….so it has to be given a chance..and just noted been promoted to jt fav (Mon Mome that is)…
I can’t imagine any other horse finishing 3rd in GC not being given massive chance and as mentioned beforethe only previous GN winner I can remember ever coming back to run in a GC and run well was Hedgehunter…who was a very very good GN horse even under big weights…
Infact wasn’t there lists people put up of last 20 GN winners and how little they won or placed AFTER their GN wins??? Will say again, I think MM is a much better horse we gave it credit for…but that doesn’t mean it will win at Aintree…but must run a big race and can’t be ignored…
Just as an afterthought…if we think this year is tricky…what if Harry F follows through his statement of running Denman in next years GN???? I mean what would that do to the handicap(before today was 182-148 v Mon Mome) as if Denman got 11-10 then even with MM getting 5-7 lbs Aintree factor it would still leave MM on 9-11!!!!! Arghhhhhhhhhh!!!
#157
March 19th, 2010 20:41
The reference to “late supporters” of Mon Mome refers to no one in particuler but refers to our whole Team! This was the total team score (Top 6) for Mon Mome re Cheltenham:
Mon Mome 3points!!
I rest my case.
kj “I am more worried about Arbor Supreme …. So who is really getting carried away here”
So lets look at Arbor Supreme and a few others in relation to Denman and each other:
First Arbor Supreme
25Apr08 Pun 30Gd HcCh 23K 9-10 1/24 5L, Black Apalachi[12/1]11-1
03Feb08 Pun 28Hy HcCh 16K 10-3 2/15 7L, Chelsea Harbour[3/1F]11-10
01Jan08 Fai 21Sft/Hy Ch 7K 11-12 3/12 16½L, Big Zeb[8/1]11-12
Big Zeb just won the Quen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham (rated OR 165 before his win this week)! Admittedly AS was 16.5L behind but this was over 21f at LEVEL WEIGHTS!! It shows the speed he has (as does his last prep race) + his abilty to run over a distance – won at 29f and 30f (2 of his 3 wins).
Beat Black Apalachi.
Beat Clelsea harbour (9th in 2008 GN, 12th in this year Newbury Hennessy Gold Cup, 3rd in the Irish Henessey Gold Cup 2009).
Has won and placed carrying 11.04 x2, 11.08,11.12×2!.
Remember AS currently will carry only 10.08. This is a class horse who is probably way better than his OR mark and has the ability, speed, and endurance with his very low weight (which the trainer has worked hard to keep down)to challange anything currently entered in the GN 2010!!
Snowy Morning
21Feb09 Fai 25Sft ChG2 28K 11-8 2/5 17L, Black Apalachi[5/2]11-3t
05Apr08 Ain 36Gd C1HcChG3 450K 11-1 3/40 5½L, Comply Or Die[16/1]10-9
31Dec07 Pun 20Sft H 11K 11-12 1/10 3L, Vic Venturi[8/13F]10-13
14Mar07 Chl 25GS C1ChG1 96K 11-4 2/17 10L, Denman[10/1]11-4
Snowy Morning
Lost to Denman by only 10L at level weights
Beats Vic Venturi by 3L carrring + 13lbs
Lost to Black Apalachi by 17L carring +5lbs BUT Arbor Supreme beats BA 5L with -19lbs but has shown he can carry a big weight over a long distance and win!
Niche Market
28Nov09 Nby 27GS C1HcChG3 114K 9-11 3/19 7¼L, Denman[33/1]11-12
13Apr09 Fai 29Gd HcCh 136K 10-5 1/28 2L, Church Island[33/1]9-13
25Apr08 Pun 30Gd HcCh 23K 10-10 PU/24 Arbor Supreme[16/1]9-10
Niche Market
Lost to Denman by 7.75L with -29lbs
Won Irish National on 10.05
Lost to Arbor Supreme over 30f – OK he was PU but he still lost.
Dream Alliance
28Dec09 Chp 30Hy C1HcChG3 57K 10-8 1/18 ¾L, Silver By Nature[20/1]10-2p
01Dec07 Nby 27Sft C1HcChG3 85K 10-7 2/18 11L, Denman[16/1]11-12
Dream Alliance
Lost to Denman by only 11L with -19lbs (better effort than NM I think)
Won Welsh National on 10.08
So you can see that AS, SM, NM, DA all have a good chnace. But what stands out is the “hidden” potential talent of Arbor Supreme on only 10.08. So no KJ, no one is getting carried way – his propects are based on fact and performance (also has a great dosage ratings, Speed 5, Stamina 8, DI 0.68, CD -0.19)
#158
March 19th, 2010 20:49
The work begins then – apologies as always for the third person speak. Everything takes forever nowadays so I don’t have time to adapt what I write for my website to what I post here but to follow is the beginning in what will prove a less airy-fairy culling of the Grand National field. It may take me a week to get it all posted but I think the conclusion is worth waiting for and may relieve some of you if anything I say is taken seriosly. I do have the winnings from eleven Grand National winners etched on my liver so I think I have some right to promote my thoughts. Hope it’s a decent read whether you agree or not anyway. SPOILER ALERT – the 2010 Grand National winner will be revealed in this series (haha).
#159
March 19th, 2010 20:52
The Cheltenham festival has been and gone, capped by an imperial performance from the commander. Now all eyes turn to Aintree and the successor to MON MOME, whose incredible performance in the Gold Cup had the bookies running scared and they quickly reeled his price in to second favorite, so there might not be a successor after all!
The Rascal can’t wait to find out… preferably before the day – that is the purpose of this site after all.
So here is The Rascal’s penultimate analysis, coming to you just after the Cheltenham Festival. It will be reflected upon over the coming weeks and finalized on March 31st, at which stage The Rascal will take a short breather before returning with his final take on the race in the week it runs. So stay tuned because what was looking like an impossible field to decipher is fast becoming very doable.
The Rascal begins his post-Cheltenham guide with 69 horses – gone are the driftwood too far down the handicap to qualify for one of the forty places available and known or highly suspected withdrawals are also stricken from The Rascal’s list.
Enjoy…
AGE
‘Age is something that doesn’t matter, unless you are a cheese.’ (Billie Burke)
…or a horse entered in the modern Grand National, adds The Rascal, less wittily.
Since the Second World War eight to twelve year olds have exclusively (yes, without exception) dominated winners row in the Aintree feature race. That’s seventy years of hurt for six and seven year-olds and the veterans of thirteen years or more. Why would 2010 be any different for a race that has continued to evolve, continued to satisfy and continued to provide winners who meet the expectations of a Grand National champion? Kids and their grandparents don’t win it.
VERMOUTH was six in 1916 when winning the National at a modified course in Gatwick (now the site of Gatwick Airport) and ALLY SLOPER had done so at Aintree the year before at the same age. You can bet your life and the lives of everyone you know that this trend won’t be broken this year as there won’t be a six year old showing up for the 2010 renewal.
Horses’ ages are an illusion though, as far as racing is concerned anyway, since our favourite thoroughbreds actually enjoy two birthdays – the day they were born and January 1st.
So, of the seven year olds in the field TRICKY TRICKSTER won’t really be seven until June, POSSOL will be looking forward to his 7th birthday the weekend after the Grand National whilst FOLLOW THE PLAN can stop lying about his age on the Monday. PALYPSO DE CREEK, meanwhile, won’t hold his celebrations until May. The bookmakers won’t take your life if one of them wins though, official is official.
This may seem academic but the two eight year olds that have won the Grand National in the last twenty years were actually, for real rather than for official purposes, not a day under eight years old when they ran.
This makes the age trend the strongest of any trend you’ll find on this or any other site so the remaining (though honest) seven-year-olds – namely ROULEZ COOL, LE BEAU BAI, DEUTSCHLAND, PIRAYA and THE PACKAGE can also be dismissed.
If seven has proven unlucky since BOGSKAR’s 1940 victory then it comes as no surprise that thirteen has been notoriously unfriendly too. The race has not seen a thirteen year old winner since SERGEANT MURPHY back in 1923 – to give you an idea of how long that is Edward VIII was monarch then (it was George VI who preceded our present Queen). How many of you would recognise a photograph of either of them?
At thirteen years of age the one pound improvement on his 2007 triumph will prove very hard to find for SILVER BIRCH, should he squeeze into the final forty
Save for any lingering hunches you may have which, incidentally, The Rascal doesn’t share the field can be quickly trimmed to 60.
Of the seven year olds masquerading as eight year olds? Namely CAN’T BUY TIME, SEVEN IS MY NUMBER (ironically), AIR FORCE ONE, KORNATI KID, PARSONS PISTOL, RAZOR ROYALE and, hehe, BIG FELLA THANKS. Well, a trend is a trend but The Rascal won’t push it. This vain crowd survive…for now, at least.
#160
March 19th, 2010 20:57
Hello folks,
Pretty punishing Cheltenham I have to say. Peaked with Sizing Europe and from there all downhill.
Onto the national.
Any word on Cane Brake??
#161
March 19th, 2010 21:04
i remember kj you also being a supporter of bft,and i would guess you have been a victim as i and probually a few others on here to not going with our own gut feelings and allowing ourselves to get carried along with feelings of some of the more forceful opions of some who may appear to have more knowledge.i think we need to discuss,evaluate and then apply the info to your own systems and feelings.sorry if i am wrong kj, but i think that’s what happened last year over rambo me included and it cost,so not again.
#162
March 19th, 2010 21:08
Rascal . Loved ur post. Especially the line about
The cheese. Whens the next instalment? I was just
Getting really into your latest post and then it
Was all over. It was like that tony hancock sketch
Where he gets to the last page of the whodunnit
And the page has been ripped out!
#163
March 19th, 2010 21:16
I reckon its fair to say that we should treat
With caution Mon Momes third today. Bottom line
He stayed on through tired and beaten horses.
Carruthers and cooldine had already paid a heavy
Price for trying to spar with imperial commander
And denman and they were out on their legs after
The third last. It was a decent prep race but i
Think 11-7 and possibly 11-10 will be enough to
Stop him winning. One thing however that he most
Surely is is an out and out stayer and i can see
Him being in the first seven or eight without
Actually winning.
#164
March 19th, 2010 21:55
Not going to be able to post much more over the next few days unfortunately but I will when I can. I don’t know when you’ll be starting the post-Cheltenham league table but when the party’s getting started then can you begin with mine – ERIC’S CHARM (6), ARBOR SUPREME (5), SNOWY MORNING (4), VIC VENTURI (3), MADISON DU BERLAIS (2) and BIG FELLA THANKS (1). Low score for MADISON is based on the doubts about him running, VIC VENTURI has always bugged me and the Bobbyjo win has his name buzzing even louder despite my constant attempts to dismiss him. My ARBOR SUPREME turnaround is based on the fact that I may have overcomplicated things for myself this year but the main reasons will transpire when my notes are written up (and posted here). I stand by what I’ve said previously on this forum as far as SNOWY MORNING is concerned but as a follower of trends I have to take his side in the National though I prefer the chances of AS. If ERIC’S CHARM can stay out of trouble (and if I was an opposing jockey I’d stay on his left hand side for sure) and jump the Canal Turn without doing a lap of honour afterwards then I feel he’ll run a huge race. BIG FELLA THANKS is clearly best of the favourites for me and gets the point. MON MOME and COMPLY OR DIE are place threats but not winners for me – I agree with Systemsman. I think NICHE MARKET is a red herring and that TRICKY TRICKSTER is likely to do better but without winning. Disregarding trends I think the only other outstanding candidate is BLACK APALACHI who has been underexposed on this forum but STATE OF PLAY should never be completely ruled. Negative statements or not I can’t see past any of the named horses in this post.
And here’s the list of current entries… (only joking)
#165
March 19th, 2010 21:56
No, Neil I wasn’t talking to you, systemsman commented on all the late support for MM, and getting carried away,..but I don’t like this comparing MM to Rambo!!! I assume you are joking! I hope so!
Haven’t backed MM, probably won’t only because of weight and completely agree with Nick about how people would be raving if TT had been 3rd!
What annoyed me was I think MM should have earned a bit of respect, before today! I’m not saying he’s Arkle! but he’s a really good stayer.
Systemsman, I understand you weren’t talking to me, more about ‘our top6′ lists, and yes it is sensible to concentrate on classically weighted horses, but it doesn’t exactly thrill me this year, phil has stitched us up! frustration returns… Oven still hasn’t materialised!
Thanks for reminder, systems, that AS has weight carrying experience and wins in the all important, year before book! has always been in the wings for me, but I can’t forget the runs before last time out, he looked like he hated it soft the time before, and yet he has run well on heavy!?
maybe it’ll be the only real working ‘plot’ to aintree this yr, cause it sure as hell wasn’t GTL.
Not ditching him, waiting, but need to get to the bottom of this ground thing, as if its soft I don’t know I could back him at the moment.
Rascal your post has cheered me, kids and their grandparents don’t win! haha!
#166
March 19th, 2010 22:14
Just read on the racing post that Harry Findley is considering Denman for next year’s national. Surely the time as now passed for that. I also think a lot of its talk and even if he was serious now, he’ll get cold feet about the idea and pull him out.
#167
March 19th, 2010 22:22
Kj one of my favorite authors is Stephen King and a line he wrote in his Dark Tower novels is assume makes an ass out of u and me. Which seems to me as a spelling aid. However in this case you’re correct, however I’ve backed it today with hills and got 14/1. Don’t forget midlands national tomorrow could yet be another clue, is any aintree’s entries running tomorrow.
#168
March 19th, 2010 22:49
Can I just say that because of his weight I do not expect MM to win, but I stand by my ew bet on him, as I can see him running into a place. What I don’t want is his weight to increase though.
#169
March 19th, 2010 23:44
Systemsman, I think its only fair to highlight that Arbor Supreme was in receipt of lumps of weight in some of those races.
You say that AS was beaten by Big Zeb 16 lengths off level weights, which is decent given the events of this week but you make no mention of the weight Black Apalachi (19lbs)o Chelsea Harbour (21lbs) were giving Arbor Supreme in the other 2 races you mentioned.
With this in mind, i’m still not convinced he is as well treated as you suggest. I am willing to be persuaded otherwise though!
#170
March 19th, 2010 23:46
TOP 6 TIPSTERS LEAGUE ANNOUNCEMENT
Just to say Team that the next Phase (phase 4) will be opened immediately after news on Tuesday (or whenever it filters through lol)is released of the next decs stage at Aintree.
Re-Posted as some are still asking:
TOP 6 TIPSTERS LEAGUE ANNOUNCEMENT
Just to say Team that the next Phase (phase 4) will be opened immediately after news on Tuesday (or whenever it filters through lol)is released of the next decs stage at Aintree.
With the extra phase of the TOP 6 TIPSTERS added and voted on pre-Chelts, we were all looking forward to the post Chelts TOP 6 vote opening after today’s end of the meet.
But of course it is pointless start today without the next decs info.
So to clarify next TOP 6 TIPSTERS vote opens as soon as next decs stage info is released.
#171
March 19th, 2010 23:51
I take my hat off to Mon Mome of whom I won on last year and would have lumped more on if listened to my gut as Mandie says and not swept away with those who discounted him on price and French.
If he wins again then hats off.
However, I side with Systemsman and Silver Birch on this, the GN will be one step too far. As he did last year (and most horses do) there’s a dud thrown in with the great runs now and again and he’s run so well so far this year, I fear between 11-07 to 11-10 at the GN, may just be that dud race for him. A great run today from him but SURELY a punishing one 3 weeks before the GN.
#172
March 20th, 2010 01:43
How I see things right now…
Arbor Supreme was only 6 when he trashed the field (Hold The Pin fell at the last under pressure) including Black Apalachi and he rates favourite for me right now
Mon Mome has a lot of weight but the handicapper has reduced his weight by 6lb from his 161 rating so he rates a danger
Le Beau Bai is only seven and if it rained he would be my favourite but unlikely he would run otherwise
Snowy Morning looks good but I feel he is place material unless clearly the Mullins number one
And a saver on Big Fella Thanks if Barry Geragthy rides (although Ruby might take the reins which wouldn’t be a bad thing either!)
Will be cheering on Cane Brake too
#173
March 20th, 2010 02:11
Don’t forget Iris running in midlands national, typically he run a huge race, and be right up there again and confuse thing for us analysts. Or so I hope.
#174
March 20th, 2010 02:24
Just watched the repeat of GC on ch4, I’m sorry but beaten horses or not, MM finished like a train!
Its not about taking sides and its not all about meeting every stat! Its about spotting a winner!
With 11’7 you couldn’t rule him out completely with that performance, stats are only written in sandstone not marble!
After taking the view he couldn’t win from day 1 last yr, interesting how many people backed him, probably as they realised how ridiculous 100-1 was I suppose. Just shows how we get influenced, persuaded out of our gut instincts.
I’ve already backed COD, not MM, again, but arguably MM can carry weight and finish faster! True every pound counts at 4m4 but he made 11st1 look easy after 11-12 3wks before, last year. I’ve persuaded myself into it now! and humble pie for those big doubters if he top5s!
I thought I was confused earlier when I heard ‘Take the stand’, but yes it was the same horse, at 14, unfortunately he fell 4 out, in the incident that scuppered a true run from TF. Hope he and all other fallers ok, so many broken necks this yr I’m thinking I’ve had enough of this game… tipping Gypsy George for the midlands tmw
#175
March 20th, 2010 02:38
looks like alot of rain before the off tmw afternoon however, have to look again tmw.
#176
March 20th, 2010 08:29
Well, I got my bottom well and truely spanked at the festival yesterday!! Had Arcalis ew, but that wasnt even enough to get my stakes back on that race alone!!
Couldnt for the life of me see IC winning, but I was in the winners enclosure (right at the front – in the rain!) when they brought him in and the atmosphere was something special.
Best part of the day was when Restless Harry got up – I think I would have been sick if he hadnt.
#177
March 20th, 2010 10:23
well… christmas over for another year, another great festival partly helped by the weather on the first 3 days. Another year to unlock the festival puzzles. Peddlers Cross really made the festival for me and can’t wait for him to go chasing. Can’t believe Mr Henderson pulling such a fast one with Binocular to beat super Khyber. One of the loudest cheers for the 4 days had to be Restless Harry getting back up, which just goes to show what these horses put themselves through for the sport
Looks as if too much is being made of MM’s 3rd by the bookies as he stayed on past some slightly above average handicappers. He wasnt put in the race to win, whereas others were, given an easy ride and outstayed them. It was a very similar performance to My Will last year who was carrying a lower weight in the national
Wasnt impressed with HB performance on ground he should have really enjoyed and looks as if his bubble has burst. Ollie Magern wasnt beaten that far in the willhill and was finishing strongly after a great round of jumping, he should really relish the Aintree trip
The national picture hasnt become much clearer though, Le Beau Bai or Iris deBalme could put themselves in the picture with a success this afternoon
#178
March 20th, 2010 11:29
KJ “True every pound counts at 4m4 but he made 11st1 look easy after 11-12 3wks before, last year. I’ve persuaded myself into it now! and humble pie for those big doubters if he top5s!”
Hardly fair KJ. I and some others have stated that MM will not win the GN, but I have stated as other have that he could place – so no humble pie I think. I say again for Mon Mome to win he would have to brake trends going back a long way (Pablo + others how long since a runner with 11.07 min has won the GN?)and he may even carry 11.10. If Master Oats could not win with 11.10 just after his Gold Cup win and was in tip top form then no Mon Mome will not win but he may just(but I personely dont think so – as I suspect the Gold Cup will have taken a lot out of him) get a place 2/3/4th at best.
However you are right to stick to your gut feelings KJ but they must be based on facts and all the facts for very long time say that you cant win the GN on 11.07 or 11.10 unless you are something very, very special and most of the others are out of the handicap.
My gut feeling and one I have had all along Arbour Supreme was the outstanding choice this year (+ CI if he had run)on his weight and performance so far.
Ewok, AS could not help the weight he was allocated when he beat BA and 7L 2nd to Chelsea Harbour he coud only win or place well which he did. But that run againt Big Zeb if thats not a clue to the GN winner nothing is! Please study his races and see that he can run and win with maximum weight on his back – now with 10.08 or even 10.11, just think what he may do. Dont get me wrong he’s not the only one with a chance but the one I will be cheering on every inch of the way – will top up this weekend. I dont think 25/1 will last much longer and would expect no better than 14/1 on the day if that.
#179
March 20th, 2010 12:24
Time to recover those Cheltenham losses at Uttoxeter with an e/w attempt on L’Aventure at 25/1.
Come on rain! We want a deluge!
#180
March 20th, 2010 12:50
KJ – I agree with Gypsy George – he comes out top of my ratings for the race along with Inoma James – so those two for me
#181
March 20th, 2010 12:52
Peace guys
KJ I think what systems and I are trying to say is total respect to MM great horse. But now the value has gone and for the subsatntial outlay for a good return I wouldn’t rate him my number 1. I may have a saver but don’t think he’ll win – but for sure not ruling out that he could.
Other better weighted horses with etter value attract my attention more just now.
Yes Speedy – La’venture and Le Beau Bai will love that rain
#182
March 20th, 2010 12:54
OK I’ve shined it up and it’s in a lovely presentation box – GOLD STAR for whoever gets info on Arbor
This is fekkin ridiculous surelt there MUST be a word about him out there!
#183
March 20th, 2010 13:03
Maybe it’s what Willie (Mullins ) isn’t saying about Arbor that’s significant. We should know his plans by Irish national.
Arbor is still trained by Willie? Only in a pre cheltenham interview to Weekender he mentions Snowy Morning saying it goes directly for the national, but no mention of Arbor not even saying that Irish is his target.
#184
March 20th, 2010 13:04
I think one of the things to remember about horses these days is how fit they can get without actually racing; look at Longshanks who ran a blinder a couple of years ago and had spent ages just swimming etc. That makes me think that State of Play still has a good chance, especially as he’s like Imperial Commander; a horse that runs well when fresh.
#185
March 20th, 2010 13:09
Liked State Of Play last year but I’d want to see the money down for the horse before backing him myself – he is very well handicapped on his best form
#186
March 20th, 2010 13:22
Thank you for the lovely comments on my previous post. Below is part two and I hope you continue to enjoy it. Good luck everyone.
#187
March 20th, 2010 13:22
3 MILE + WINS
‘The vision must be followed by the venture. It is not enough to stare up the steps – we must step up the stairs.’ (Vance Havner)
When The Rascal goes to bed at night he likes to put some positive vibes behind his closed eyes. He concocts the scenes of his would-be endeavours and lulls himself to sleep amid images of heroism. He has the perfect retort, or the avalanche of abuse, that had eluded him in the moment but sorely came to him after the event. He delivers it verbatim and the victim reels whilst the crowd applauds.
Amongst many feats The Rascal has won the WWE Royal Rumble countless times, has carried the can for betrayals of state with great dignity and sacrificed himself for the good of mankind, he has scored the winning goal for Ipswich Town in the FA Cup Final despite struggling to make the game after suffering pre-match wounds sustained in a road traffic accident prior to the game in which he saved the life of an autistic child. He has signed his own books, recorded his own records and Phil Helmuth has humbly told him, at least seventeen times, how well he played to win the World Series Of Poker.
The Rascal is so immortal in those winking moments before sleep that sometimes he likes to come second in great honour because coming first is a bit boring and the drama of second is much more epic. Of course, at such times, he is still the winner in the eyes of the nation.
The drift of sleep dampens the moments and sets him on his way to sobriety and then he awakes and finds himself a skinny wretch with an ‘I want to be a celebrity, get me out of here’ job and the world’s all wrong again.
It is the same, bizarrely, with the marathon Grand National – wannabe staying thoroughbreds are found out by those that can stay, and stay, and stay again. Not since 1970 has a winning Grand National horse not previously won over a distance of 24 furlongs or more. In 2010 there are those that dream about it but have never tried – namely MADE IN TAIPAN, CONNA CASTLE and LENNON and those that have tried but come short of victory – PABLO DU CHARMIL, KING JOHN’S CASTLE, NEW ALCO, CERIUM, BALLYHOLLAND and MALJIMAR.
When The Rascal goes to bed tonight he won’t be riding any of these to Grand National glory.
In making a selection for the Grand National The Rascal wants a strong winning horse that has proven form in healthy long chases so we’re left with fifty to choose from. In the last twenty years RED MARAUDER, who won in the bog of 2001, was the only winner that had not secured a chase win over 24 furlongs or more but he had bagged a long distance hurdles win. The RED MARAUDER exception saves the trends-bacon of ROYAL ROSA. Frowned upon by The Rascal but not fatal in his analysis at this stage.
Sweet dreams rapscallions…
#188
March 20th, 2010 13:34
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
lost the plot
#189
March 20th, 2010 13:46
Yes Showlad, ofcourse we don’t really disagree much when it comes down to it, just got different way of twisting facts to suit your fancies
when we do all disagree its either about no hopers; there were some people trying to be heard about Rambo last yr, but when either certain people or masses have made up their minds they’re practically inmoveable, I was one that was totally swept up with Rambomania. One big race and we went mad.
Or disagreement occurs with horses with real chances with a big weight and after last years weight carrying top4? its more tempting.
Or horses that haven’t really proved themselves against much, seem a bit young and inexperienced, irish usually and we know how dangerous they can be.
MM winning would be magic, likewise COD and frankly anything over 11’3 because of the facts on weight. Theres only one solution,..
‘may the best horse win race’ equal weights 11’1, lets go! we’ll see who the real champ is! sod this handicapping rubbish, I want to see the best horse win! who will it be?
Re AS they’re probably waiting on the weather, horses aren’t actors and he hated the soft recently. Another one who likes the sun?!
#190
March 20th, 2010 13:52
will war of attrition run? Does anyone know?
#191
March 20th, 2010 13:59
well theres Knowing and knowing! comment from an owner? (on tuesday when another horse won at chelt) said wordle hurdle then punchestown then retired. Someone else heard a repeat of this the day he ran in the world hurdle, so in short yes, not running GN, that money has gone!
#192
March 20th, 2010 14:04
WINNING CHASE PRIZE MONEY
‘It is not well for a man to pray cream and live skim milk’ (Henry Ward Beecher)
Quality horses win Grand Nationals, it is essentially what keeps the race so magnificently appealing. Throughout this analysis the class and winning potential of our entries is constantly referred to. It is a gallant, if cheeky, attempt to whittle down the field to find the horse with the virtues required of a winner and yet…
Why does everything come down to money, eh?
The Rascal doesn’t judge people by the money they earn but, somewhat hypocritically, does not extend the same liberty to Grand National entries.
Oh, a plague on society for its materialistic ends! Still, The Rascal wants to bag some wonga on April 10th and it’s a fair old trend to use.
The last horse not to meet the ‘previously won £17,000 or more in a chase win’ trend was PARTY POLITICS in 1992. With this falling within The Rascal’s last-twenty-winners analysis it might be said he his cheating his own system by ruling out current contenders who also fail to meet it. However, inevitable inflation has to be given its dues on this one – PARTY POLITICS banked £99,000 for his Grand National victory whereas MON MOME’s prize fund breached half a million pounds. Tasty!
As a 16/16 trend, it’s worth holding on to and defeats the hopes of another six contenders – ROYAL ROSA (it was coming), BALLYFITZ, OODACHEE, DOONEY’S GATE, FLINTOFF and ABBEYBRANEY.
The remaining 44 are looking wealthily smug so The Rascal reminds them that the last seven winners had previously banked at least £29k in a chase win – a truth that wipes the smile from beneath the noses of SEVEN IS MY NUMBER, SNOWY MORNING, CHELSEA HARBOUR, GONE TO LUNCH, KORNATI KID, ERIC’S CHARM, ARBOR SUPREME and TRUST FUND. The Rascal is not a harsh imp, though, and he’ll not hold them to the sword just yet.
Let’s find that winner and have coffee with cream to nurse our hangovers on April 11th.
#193
March 20th, 2010 14:24
Sorry Silver Birch but am having to disagree. Will say that I dont expect Mon Mome to win this year but the run in the GC was exceptional…no dismissing it by saying ‘this other horse did this and ran like that’ makes any difference at all…what counts is where they are at the post…not how they got there…It is the ultimate test of top class chasers and now good prize monet goes down to sixth, owners/trainers are not put off running the best even if they think there is /was (mistakenly now) zero chance of beating KS and Denman. Nobody turned up to take on Arkle as they did know he was unbeatable and place prize money not there…
So Mon Mome proved himself the third best chaser yesterday. Fact. It makes him a very very good bet on 11-7 (esp with proven Aintree pedigree) but I agree with 11-10 it looks all but impossible. You have to remember yesterday he stuffed Tricky T. (the then fav for GN) out of sight…and unless the GC has taken a lot out of him I think MM will place (first 5) and hopefully get some recognition as a better horse and not a ‘freak’ 100/1 winner…
Couple of questions. On RP latest prices War of Attrition has been taken out of betting and My Will is 999/1 on exchanges…any news/reasons why?/
Secondly watching Uttoxeter already surely the ground there will make a good run by IDB or LBB too exhausting to recover for Aintree..??
#194
March 20th, 2010 14:28
I think Arbor Supreme is the only one currently whose below 11 stones that I’am getting excited about, if he doesn’t go then I personally think the winner will come from above this mark.
Of course I could be wrong and the still 3 weeks to go, but we’re in the home straight (or final furlong to use a racing term).
#195
March 20th, 2010 14:29
Forgot to add re Mon Mome look at Comply Or Die…did less than zero between GN’s and was 2nd under big weight last year….MM has run 3rd in a GC and is all but being dismissed ffs???? A grip is needed to be got!!!;)
#196
March 20th, 2010 14:29
Team any thoughts on Midlands Nat?
Laventure great ew and Le Beau Bai has winners claims..
Anyone?
#197
March 20th, 2010 14:31
I am hoping for a big run for Iris De Balme, but today gone for Ballydub!
#198
March 20th, 2010 14:36
“So Mon Mome proved himself the third best chaser yesterday. Fact.”
Sorry disagree – that’s nonsense – he came third in the Gold Cup – that’s the only fact. I would have thought that Kauto Star is a better horse than Mon Mome.
#199
March 20th, 2010 14:38
Oh and I know Dan E amongst others will laugh at this…I couldn’t sleep last night…not thinking about this years race but next years…howdahell will Smiffy frame a handicap if Harry F’s threat to run Denman proves a reality!!!!
Smiffy…resign now mate…it would be impossible!!!!
#200
March 20th, 2010 14:39
CHASE RUNS
‘I think men who have a pierced ear are better prepared for marriage. They’ve experienced pain and bought jewellery.’ (Rita Rudner)
It’s an innocuous quote but one of The Rascal’s favourites and in this sense it is intended to suggest that experience is the mother of all gifts. When taking up poker its rarely a good idea to take a seat next to some buccaneer wearing a big fat bracelet with the letters WSOP on it – he’s going to make mince meat out of your pocket nines and bleed all the saturated fat from your pores in the form of sweat. And tears too, most likely!
You’ve got to ply your trade in the modern world and work your way up the rickety ladder of life – there’s no better gift than the gift of experience and all that babble. The Rascal watches the videos of his old school plays and his washed-out complexion is soon pink again, at least in the cheeks. That wooden delivery! That timing just a second off perfect! Training and devotion iron out our deficiencies even when we’re blessed with natural talent (as The Rascal’s form tutor used to say).
The Rascal’s first omelette was hopeless but there’ll be egg in the faces of anyone who mocks his culinary talents nowadays! Perseverance is rewarded and so it proves in the Aintree Grand National.
History tells us that experience is a knockout blow to the novices. A minimum of nine chase runs prior to success has been required of our recent National winners and so WHINSTONE BOY, SEVEN IS MY NUMBER and KORNATI KID are short of the necessary piercings in 2010.
MIINNEHOMA won the Grand National with just nine chase runs in the locker but that was sixteen years ago so EQUUS MAXIMUS is living a charmed life in this analysis.
The Rascal won’t be drawing attention to his big ears should he nap the winner this year but the payout may well go towards his wedding fund.
#201
March 20th, 2010 14:43
Nope the Gold Cup result is in the book. A chaser (note the noun) means it has to jump fences…KS didn’t yesterday….and am afraid jumping them is part of the deal….so KS on the day didn’t meet the criteria…am sure on another day if KS stood up it would have beaten MM…it didn’t and didn’t…so MM by the one measure we have (the best running against each other on levels and having to jump all thefences) is third best…the conjecture counts for nothing and as the first two and KS dont have a GN entry….then MM is rightly jt/fav…even though I made it clear I dont think it will win…but demands attention and recognition…thats all!!
#202
March 20th, 2010 14:44
Well I’am off the put another bet on Arbor Supreme at 25/1 while I can. I being toying all week looking for somethig new and its just not there for me yet – the top four or so stand out.
Having lost Church Island early (and probably wated money on GTL) I’am going to feel really stupid and really pissed off if AS is not declared next week but its the chance I am happy to take as I belive this one has been plotted up for some time by McManus and Mullins (Double M’s!!)- the best chance they have had for years. McManus so wants that GN win!!
Re: AS ground preference:
Won 29f Sft
Won 30f Gd
Won 20f Sft
Won NHF 16f St
2nd 21f Hy
2nd 28f Hy
3rd 25f Hy
3rd 26f Hy
3rd 24f Hy
4th 28f Gd/Y
He has only ran on Gd/Y or better three times coming 14th (Irish National), 1st and 4th.
In March, April, May he has come (most recent first)
3rd, 14th, 3rd, 1st, 5th, 1st,
So he has no problem running well in the spring (but can also do it at other times)
KJ “Re AS they’re probably waiting on the weather, horses aren’t actors and he hated the soft recently. Another one who likes the sun?!”
The evidence above shows he actually likes it Soft or Heavy but can also win on better ground so I’am not too bothered by the ground but am very bothered he runs!!
#203
March 20th, 2010 14:44
Am on Iris De Balme too in the hope he can rebound. Ground a little more soft than he prefers but not disastrous. Trainer obviously happy after last lacklustre run that he is healthy and fit…so we’ll see.
Only thing we know is he will love the extra distance. So possibly the last of our high regards and the chance to click into form..
#204
March 20th, 2010 14:45
Cant wait for Pablo and Daniel (please) to post their post Cheltenham lists as it will help me clarify my last and or top up/+ saver bets.
#205
March 20th, 2010 14:51
REALLY bored with the MM debate. A waste of our energy. Potted version we ALL see his merit, some more than others, some will bet on his now short odds some won’t.
Please now – END OF.
Let’s focus on the BIG picture.
All eyes to Le Beau Bai, Kornati Kid and Iris in 25 mins
#206
March 20th, 2010 14:53
Also perhaps a truer measure is MM v those just below KS Denman and now IC class….stuffed TT and My Will and beat Cooldine the best chaser Ireland could throw in to the race….so MM the best of the rest…and people still not thinking he has to be considered? lol
As said yesterday if TT had been 3rd they would be salivating all over their laptops telling us ‘the GN is inthe bag’ etc etc…plus posts that have desperatelytrying to justify their earlier faith in the likes of NM and HB and trying to find any small crumb of comfort in average to dire runs at Chelt….and MM does that….and silence all but…
Just to finish MM wont win GN but a place is a given all but…and The Package is too young and CDG wont get in….so Chelt has not found us the winner as the rest of the GN entry runs (Albertas perhaps aside as dont think it will turn up and too much weight if it does)were average through rubbish to dire….
#207
March 20th, 2010 14:53
Chase course at Utt ‘soft’ NO idea why Le Beau has drifted out…
#208
March 20th, 2010 14:57
I think we are all coming down with post cheltenham fever! on the day MM beat Kauto and My WIll and Mr.P… thats all that it comes down to, he was 3rd best stayer on the day.
Only bet in the national today, nursing my cheltenham wounds, so far watching uttox, I coulda won with Carrick and Bella, typical, hope it means I win next. Ground getting heavier by second.
Looking forward to DE, Pablo list too! not to mention Crisps final analysis!!!
#209
March 20th, 2010 14:58
Who are you in Midlands KJ?
#210
March 20th, 2010 15:01
I think Tricky ran no sort of race in the Gold Cup. The big question is it a one off or has he peaked in the Aon.
#211
March 20th, 2010 15:03
If the third in the GC isnt part of the BIG picture then can only assume it’s been distorted/edited on Photoshop….lol
Worried re the ground at Uttoxeter as am an IDB fan (upset at last rubbish run) as a) might mean not a good run (although MM was average in it last year before GN glory)or b) a really good run might take too much out of it…
LBB a watching brief as has been below my radar but now Chelt seems to have scuppered quite a fewit has to be worth a look ….
#212
March 20th, 2010 15:03
Hmm, I did a £1 Uttoxeter Trixie on:
Carrickmines 9/2
Bella Haze 16/1
Le Beau Bai 9/1
and a £1 e/w double on:
Bella Haze 16/1
L’Aventure 20/1
Already in profit which I’m happy about but could be very happy days if Le Beau Bai or L’Aventure romps home!
In theory, Le Beau Bai has too much weight and L’Aventure isn’t up to this class these days but we shall see!
#213
March 20th, 2010 15:08
Louping D’Ainey (35) and Follow The Plan (43) just taken out of GN betting….
#214
March 20th, 2010 15:15
Gypssy George main bet, knew you’d be on L’Aventure Showlad! G’Luck all!
#215
March 20th, 2010 15:16
IDB ew (heart rather than head bet!) is it.
GL all.
#216
March 20th, 2010 15:24
Count out Iris De Balme, I don’t know if its the ground, but he seems to me like a horse who has fallen out of love with the game.
#217
March 20th, 2010 15:25
Thats IDB off my GN list…
#218
March 20th, 2010 15:26
Damn! So close!
#219
March 20th, 2010 15:27
My verdict is Iris will be pulled out at next stage, hope I’am wrong, as Aintree will be better ground.
#220
March 20th, 2010 15:27
Brilliant ride from McCoy (again!)
#221
March 20th, 2010 15:28
Syncronised joins Silver by Nature and Any Currency in my 2011 GN notebook…
#222
March 20th, 2010 15:30
that was heavy! thought L’Aventures day from the 1st.
Really too heavy for IDB to be overpushed, was running ok, no point in destroying his chances there. Better to get some sort of run I think it more positive than negative.
#223
March 20th, 2010 15:31
Well done Laventure a nice each way return off of 20/1
Le Beau just not soft enough and too much weight?
#224
March 20th, 2010 15:34
No, a horse thats fallen out of love with racing runs like GTL! Iris has right attitude question is still, can he recover from injury to former self and get fit enough on wrong ground.
#225
March 20th, 2010 15:38
I know it’s 3 weeks off but they do say Aintree will be soft this year…plus the turf is about 3-4 weeks behind its growing cycle with the cold weather…though they say it might catch up half of that if it stays as warm as this last week…bugga yet another factor to consider…as if it isn’t hard enough!!!
#226
March 20th, 2010 15:40
KJ are you saying you wouldn’t dismiss IDB? I am a big fan but thats scrubbed him off my potential top 6 today…..but am open to a view that might keep him on my possibles ….
#227
March 20th, 2010 15:56
SEASON FORM
‘However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results.’ (Winston Churchill)
The year is 1986 and The Rascal is in junior school preparing to compete in a majorly anticipated paper aeroplane competition. There is urgent preparation as we fold and press the creases of our efforts and crayon our names on the wings. The week had been dour for The Rascal – two practices in the school field had seen his effort flap feebly in the wind and plonk nose-first within a toe-twitch of his feet, the origami equivalent of having your pants pulled down.
Yet on this Friday preceding the school holidays The Rascal was making finishing touches to his flight-defying shambles – how could a piece of wretched paper cause such personal shame and wreck a boy’s social standing? The injustice of it all.
Yet, if The Rascal’s future looked unlikely to be in engineering there were few amongst that class who possessed the same level of skills in observation.
The Rascal had seen nemesis-boy make a cut here, a fold there, The Rascal had heard the whoops of girls who would have babies too young in later years when nemesis-boy’s plane flew like a Fantasia creation in the practice runs.
Well, The Rascal could cut, The Rascal could fold – and so he did.
No one expected The Rascal’s paper aeroplane to win, no one saw it coming – but, on the day, no one realised that it wasn’t The Rascal’s paper aeroplane at all. It was a carbon copy of the plane that had been winning all week, only this time the wing bore a different name in crayon.
He shared his Cadbury’s Chocolate Orange prize when he won, so it wasn’t really cheating.
In finding the National winner there is nothing underhand about recognising that a known-flop is unlikely to soar without major intervention. The last twenty Grand National winners had all shown signs of ability and form in the season of their victory, all having banked at least a third place finish before turning up at Aintree.
It is apt then to dismiss those who have shown no form in the field this season and don’t have the facility to engineer a reinvention. This eliminates MR POINTMENT, CHARACTER BUILDING, STATE OF PLAY, IRIS DE BALME, NOZIC, COMPLY OR DIE, PREISTS LEAP, IRISH RAPTOR and LOUPING D’AINAY.
Before you think your favourite has had the season to back up your fancy please remember that only four of the last twenty winners had failed to finish 2nd or 1st in one of their preparatory runs so there are minor concerns for those who have only managed a third place finish – MON MOME, JOE LIVELY, CLOUDY LANE, AIR FORCE ONE, OLLIE MAGERN, CANE BRAKE and HELLO BUD.
The Rascal will keep them in mind though as he takes a look at the remaining 33 contenders…
#228
March 20th, 2010 15:57
KJ in all due respect and I myself have £25 on him so I am willing to be wrong, but your clutching at straws here with Iris. He had to be given the whip or ridden half way, seemed to be making ground for a short while then lost it again.
However only three finished and the winner was a tired horse as the last few jumps showed. If Iris does line up maybe the better ground would help.
On the plus side KJ I had Cool Dawn ante post when he won his gold cup, good job too because on the day there another one I wouldn’t have backed.
#229
March 20th, 2010 16:20
All PU or F except final 3.
Trainer can go decent work-out on ground he doesn’t like for IDB or feel not in form enough for GN. Think it may be latter but won’t be surprised either if he’s still in come Tuesday and runs 3 weeks today.
3 WEEKS TODAY!! YIPEE
#230
March 20th, 2010 16:22
btw I think Walsh will go on BFT and I don’t think Nicholls will run Tricky…Just my thoughts.
#231
March 20th, 2010 16:33
Not saying its enough to get into top6,
which I respect. Think we all now the big boys can take care of themselves and thats the inbalance we live with. Just had to get that off my chest, I will now ‘end of’ as us apparent americanos say..
whoops sorry.
but I thought Iris has shown good trying attitude while we’ve been watching his comeback on ground he doesn’t like. Unlike that dead horse that certain people persisted in flogging, didn’t ask them to ‘end of’ did you Showlad, quite the little footman you’re becoming.. but still a peacemaker ofcourse
Back to Iris, It was really testing ground, ran a lap as did most of the field, so not exhausted good, but its still an unknown for Iris, not sure he good enough, had long enough,.. a tall order. He probably won’t get his ground, won’t get in on 10’6! and we’ll never know… I’m definately not saying go bet on him. I’d prefer to be holding a ticket on MM 33-1 or 25s even, right now
#232
March 20th, 2010 16:34
Showlad it might not be between the Nicholls pair does he not also ride for Mullins too, plus Nicholls has more than just the two.
Who ever he picks would get a lot of support I bet, even if its the donkey from blackpool beach. ONLY JOKING THERE, DON’T TAKE IT ALL TOO SERIOUS!
#233
March 20th, 2010 16:37
Question for everyone, if A P McCoy was riding a horse you fancied, but yet to back in the national, would it put you off, given his record in the big race?
#234
March 20th, 2010 16:41
Yeah, who compared Ruby to Lester the other day euww!
how that wrinkley murmering wierdo ever became a housewives choice I’ll never know.
Think Ruby may choose BFT over Snowy.
As for backing AP well if its the right horse yes, Eric would become 2nd fav! ain’t gonna happen is it.
#235
March 20th, 2010 16:43
You teaser KJ
huge splash of tongue in cheek with ‘end of’ lol – you should know me well enough.
Seriously though think we should focus on the big picture rather than making small points into Question Time debates lol.
Agree with you on Iris could go either way (just like your new oven lol)but even if does run it really would be a BIG ask wouldn’t it.
#236
March 20th, 2010 16:45
Any chance AP on Eric? Didn’t someone say there was something he said after Eric’s win that counted him out of riding him?
Still think Eric’s odds after his great lh win and amazing form are RIDICULOUS.
#237
March 20th, 2010 16:55
Anyone have any idea where the cut off point is likely to be, now? I’m losing track of which horses may or may not run [trying to pre empt next weeks elimination stage when the prices will come in dramatically]. All the horses that have been aimed at the race are looking more and more interesting. And, with the Midlands being won by a horse carrying far too much weight [also so many stats flying out the window at Cheltenham] I don’t think I’m any closer to having an idea of the winner now than I was months ago…
#238
March 20th, 2010 16:59
Absolutely Showlad, glad you always here with your sense of humour, I’ve needed one of those eye rolling faces everyday this year, be it in yellow on here or in real life,… well whats left of it
It was me that noted AP post Eric win, he was very.. I like to ride him once a year or so… he’s a good old horse. Blank.
#239
March 20th, 2010 17:07
Indeed Maureen, its a desperate slog with no end in sight. I’m at the end of my stamina hey, would seem lucky ain’t my middle name no more!
If only there was a horse called Utter chaos entered, I’d back it and be done with it! anyone know a horse with no name? 
will it be a bog, will it be mid summer by apr 10? grrrrr
#240
March 20th, 2010 17:22
On top of it all I’d backed the horse that came second in the Triumph [at 33/1]. Haven’t got over it yet…….
#241
March 20th, 2010 17:28
Hi Maureen.
As it stands 6 of top 46 are out of the betting onthe Racing Post Site so that must mean down to 46 for certain and My Will is 999/1 on some exchanges so that indicates they know it wont run so that takes us down to 47. Looking at the rubbish last runs of thse above and down to 70 + weight/ground factors I would estimate down to 65-70 (on the current list) will get in.
They make another dec. on Tuesday so that should give us more of a clue.
Re backing anything just because AP is on it: Well we all know he can ride and would rather back his …he has been placed a few times and unlucky (Clan Royal baulked at Bechers)plus a bit hamstrung by having to ride JP’s so heisnt a Jonjo who I thinkam right in saying never ever got round in 10 or 11 rides even though a top draw jock in his day!!
#242
March 20th, 2010 17:34
4. Taranis 15. Casey Jones 22. War of A. 35 Louping D’Ainey 39 GTL 43. Follow The Plan and 70. Coe all taken out of betting.
#243
March 20th, 2010 17:43
I’ve never been McCoys biggest fan, but I must say I don’t think I’ve ever seem him ride like this before. I also feel that JP would let him ride another horse if it would give him the win that he so wants. He gets on so well with Eric’s Charm. Bt the way…Berties Dream for the Grand National in a few years time, anyone? [if I can't find the winner this year I'll start on 2014 now.....]
#244
March 20th, 2010 17:50
Fair point Maureen and think Eric C guarenteed a run so if AP rides him will be short odds on the day.
I am more than prepared to say (as have already backed it a/p) that Silver By Nature is my 2011 tip with todays Mid Nat winner+ Any Currency as possibles….but if Deman is entered……then what kind of handicap can be framed??? Beggars belief….as if they make it ‘possible’ for Denman ie a proper handicap rating for the rest rather than measured against him then who would want to take him on even though would be 11 by then….!!!
#245
March 20th, 2010 17:58
Don’t say I’m not good to you Maureen.
15-5003 JOE LIVELY (IRE) 11-11-06 Richard Dimond Colin Tizzard
Last year the 74th horse in original weights list (Zabenz)got in.
So here are horses still left in (at last decs)down to Abbeybraney who is this year’s 74th in original list.
Out of respect have removed Casey Jones who was 15th in weights list at last decs stage.
1) 03-P136 ALBERTAS RUN (IRE) 9-11-10 Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O’Neill
2) 101-324 MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 9-11-10 Roger Stanley & Yvonne Reynolds II David Pipe
3) 12-1F544 NOTRE PERE (FR) 9-11-10 Tilly Conway Jim Dreaper IRE
4) 12/14P/-1 TARANIS (FR) 9-11-09 Angela Yeoman Paul Nicholls
5) 4-61r01 OUR VIC (IRE) 12-11-08 David Johnson David Pipe
6) 001-P34 MON MOME (FR) 10-11-07 Vida Bingham Venetia Williams
7) P151U-0 BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 11-11-06 Gerard Burke Dessie Hughes IRE
9) 0-21150 VIC VENTURI (IRE) 10-11-06 James Dunne Dessie Hughes IRE
10) 1/P002-0 COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 11-11-05 David Johnson David Pipe
11) 201-423 DON’T PUSH IT (IRE) 10-11-05 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill
12) 43-3U240 MADE IN TAIPAN (IRE) 8-11-04 Frances Duffin/Sean Corby Tom Mullins IRE
13) 401-0352 NICHE MARKET (IRE) 9-11-04 Graham Regan Bob Buckler
14) 22121-21 TRICKY TRICKSTER (IRE) 7-11-04 Chris Giles Paul Nicholls
16) 31FU-36 CLOUDY LANE 10-11-03 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain Jnr
17) PUPP/-21 DREAM ALLIANCE 9-11-03 The Alliance Partnership Philip Hobbs
18) 1P00-60 NOZIC (FR) 9-11-03 Sam Mcvie Paul Nicholls
19) 3201-11 POSSOL (FR) 7-11-03 Neville Statham Henry Daly
20) 553-205 MY WILL (FR) 10-11-02 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls
21) 3606-4F PABLO DU CHARMIL (FR) 9-11-02 Joe Moran David Pipe
22) P230411 WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 11-11-01 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE
23) 0112313 BACKSTAGE (FR) 8-11-00 MPR & Capranny Syndicate Gordon Elliott IRE
24) P6-5111 BALLYHOLLAND (IRE) 9-11-00 Cathal McGovern Colin McBratney IRE
25) FP-1P1P BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 9-11-00 New Club Ladies Nigel Twiston-Davies
26) 100-000 PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 10-11-00 John O’Donohue/Tom O’Leary Tom O’Leary IRE
27) 212//U1-2(1)(1) ROULEZ COOL 7-11-00 Robert Waley-Cohen Robert Waley-Cohen
28) 314F-01 CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 8-10-13 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill
29) 1P1-0131 LE BEAU BAI (FR) 7-10-13 Glass Half Full Richard Lee
30) 11411P SEVEN IS MY NUMBER (IRE) 8-10-13 David Johnson David Pipe
31) 110322 SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 10-10-13 Quayside Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
32) 22506-P3 AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 8-10-12 Brian Walsh (Co. Kildare) Charlie Mann
33) 2U136-2U BIG FELLA THANKS 8-10-12 Maggie Findlay & Paul Barber Paul Nicholls
34) 113-412 DEUTSCHLAND (USA) 7-10-12 Allan McLuckie Willie Mullins IRE
35) 4/2D133- LOUPING D’AINAY (FR) 11-10-12 Jean-Paul Senechal Francois Cottin FR
36) 143301-0 CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 10-10-11 Mrs E Wright John Quinn
37) F0-5260 CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 10-10-11 Frances Duffin/Sean Corby Tom Mullins IRE
38) 02U-301 DOONEYS GATE (IRE) 9-10-11 Thomas Gilligan Willie Mullins IRE
39) P2-205P0 GONE TO LUNCH (IRE) 10-10-11 Gary Lever Jeremy Scott
40) 4116-6P KORNATI KID 8-10-11 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
41) 60/144-P STATE OF PLAY 10-10-11 William & Angela Rucker Evan Williams
42) 00-1210 ELLERSLIE GEORGE (IRE) 10-10-10 Guy Henderson Nick Mitchell
43) 112130- FOLLOW THE PLAN (IRE) 7-10-10 Cavan Developments Bloodstock Oliver McKiernan IRE
44) 2P-4P15 BALLYFITZ 10-10-09 Fred Mills & Wayne Mills Nigel Twiston-Davies
45) 043545 CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 11-10-09 Kings Syndicate Jimmy Mangan IRE
46) P23-15P EQUUS MAXIMUS (IRE) 10-10-09 Greenstar Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
47) 02P5-01 ERIC’S CHARM (FR) 12-10-09 Martin St Quinton & Peter Deal Oliver Sherwood
48) 212/0-00 KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 11-10-09 J P McManus Arthur Moore IRE
49) 0F2-3054 OLLIE MAGERN 12-10-09 Roger Nicholls Nigel Twiston-Davies
50) 330-30U ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 8-10-08 J P McManus Willie Mullins IRE
51) 03-635P CANE BRAKE (IRE) 11-10-08 Mount Temple Racing Sydicate Tom Taaffe IRE
52) 36244/-66 LENNON (IRE) 10-10-08 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson
53) 02P-253 MALJIMAR (IRE) 10-10-08 Jane Williams Nick Williams
54) 0/1P025/- NEW ALCO (FR) 9-10-08 D McGowan & S Murphy Ferdy Murphy
55) U01-4U5 IRISH RAPTOR (IRE) 11-10-07 Caroline Beresford-Wylie Nigel Twiston-Davies
56) 6P/6220- MR POINTMENT (IRE) 11-10-07 Judith Wilson Paul Murphy
57) F-051FP PARSONS PISTOL (IRE) 8-10-07 Robert Bagnall Noel Meade IRE
58) 000-3301 PIRAYA (FR) 7-10-07 Terry Neill David Pipe
59) 13-01240 RAZOR ROYALE (IRE) 8-10-07 Colin Cornes Nigel Twiston-Davies
60) 03-0231 THE PACKAGE 7-10-07 David Johnson David Pipe
61) 11-035B HELLO BUD (IRE) 12-10-06 Seamus Murphy Nigel Twiston-Davies
62) P31314/-5 IRIS DE BALME (FR) 10-10-06 Lee Power & Geoff Peck Sean Curran
63) 1P6-142 PALYPSO DE CREEK (FR) 7-10-06 Alan Halsall Charlie Longsdon
64) 11P/11-1 TRUST FUND (IRE) 12-10-06 Lord Daresbury Richard Barber
65) 23/32-31 ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 9-10-05 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson
#246
March 20th, 2010 18:01
You know both MM and COD ran with 11’12 last time out before their wins, hadn’t noticed that before and I do think it can make alot of difference if a horse suddenly has several pounds less. Who carried a heap of weight last time out 2010!?
#247
March 20th, 2010 18:03
other than MM (eye rolly face)
#248
March 20th, 2010 18:20
Looks as if Maljimar [with his ear plugs and valium]will get in. Wonder how tempted they would have been to run The Chief if he’d been higher up the weights, although I always thought of him as more of a Scottish National horse.
#249
March 20th, 2010 18:23
Ha ha KJ. I think it really is just the animal side of a horse that kicks in, you know the energy cycle, and only a trainer knows (or should do lol) what suits their horse best.
Venetia maybe knew MM still needed a stretch with a heavy weight before Aintree – it obv worked a treat.
Same with State of PLay – they know how he ticks.
Think VERY highly of Arbor but I will wait until he is declared by Mullins – just my call on this one. I have enough on horses who may not run and can’t take another on board lol.
#250
March 20th, 2010 18:30
I don’t like to discuss sums on here – think it very ungentlemanly lol.
But had a good Cheltenham, thank God
Let’s call it in biscuits, lol. I started with a meagre pot of one biscuit. After Day 1 I had 21 biscuits (thanks to Chief Dan George). End Day 2 foolishly put too much back on and ended day with 9 biscuits. Day 3 and down to 6 biscuits. These 6 biscuits all went on Day 4 and thanks to my STRONG belief in Imperial when I saw him beat Kauto before and a win on Pigeon I ended up back on 28 biscuits. But I aim to learn from Day 2 and my FOOLISHNESS when I allowed myself to get carried away and place 60% of pot back in the ring.
Feeling good with GN now and decs on Mar 23 and Arbor decision are my final pieces to the jigsaw
#251
March 20th, 2010 18:36
Heres a list of all that carried over 11’7 last time out little in the gap between 11’1 and 11’7 actually, this lot get <11st in the national. I've added their place and size of field.
Eric 11'10 and won!!!, 1/8
Ellerslie 11'11, 7/8 same veterans chase.
Seven is my no 11'9 5/20
Chelsea 11'13, 12/14 -hurdles 2m7
AS 11'8 2/16
Ballyfitz 11'8
Cane Brake 11'10 PU Dec
Mr.P 11'10 10/11 last effectively GC
Parsons P 11'10 PU
Hello Bud 11'9 7/24
Trust Fund 12'0 10/24
Cerium 11'12 8/11 GC
Royal Rosa 11'10 5/12
Whinstone boy 11'12 1/8
#252
March 20th, 2010 18:45
Maureen ain’t showlad good to you. Kj I was comparing Ruby to Lester only for the housewives choice not because he’ll be gaoled for not paying taxes. He has two previous winners and ridden the most winners at the cheltenham festival (over the years). As for McCoy I think he’ll be compared to Frankie in the Derby and we all know that he won on Authorized.
Now I know the 2010 national is yet to run,but in one or two years if he progress the right way the winner of the national will be Fire And Rain. Who you might ask, well he won the summer national at Uttoxeter.
#253
March 20th, 2010 18:47
Good list Pablo.
Like MM last year I wonder if Hello Bud will feel like he’s carrying a feather with 10-6 to 10-9 on his back after 11′ 9 and Eric’s Charm too with 10-9 to 10-12 on his back after 11-10!!
#254
March 20th, 2010 19:09
Pablo lol I meant Sir KJ
#255
March 20th, 2010 19:23
showaddy waddy
if you were interested in top up on arbor supreme, did you know he has gone out to 33′s with hills today.don’t think you are going to beat that now at this stage of the gig.have you recovered from paddys day yet, my head is still banging so it is.
#256
March 20th, 2010 19:24
Showlad; I made the same mistake with Cheltenham as last year..I did rather well up the the Thursday but,even though I only really fancied Barizan on Friday I still had bets, although my instinct was to stop. Also, looking at my notes I backed horses that needed good ground and it hadn’t sunk into to my somewhat [by then] befuddled brain that the going had changed. By the way, thanks for the list!
#257
March 20th, 2010 19:36
Mandie – wonder why he’s gone out then, out on betfair a bit too..maybe word got back of off to Fairyhouse (sounds like a blinkin’ story – off to Fairyhouse)?
I know you are just saying go on go on go on!!!
Maureen exactly, I was Mr.bettingisgreatfungreedyguts when placing my bets that night for Day 2 after Day 1. Decided to stick to 5 of the 21 biscuits going on Day 2 I had, and in end put on about 12 – just shows you.
Now I try to say ‘OK how much are you betting on this market’ then try and stick to that before all the fancies come out the woodwork and before I know it I’m sunk lol.
have to say my big wins were my own ‘guts’ and not from the big tipsters.
#258
March 20th, 2010 19:43
“mandie
March 20th, 2010 19:23
showaddy waddy
if you were interested in top up on arbor supreme, did you know he has gone out to 33’s with hills today.don’t think you are going to beat that now at this stage of the gig.”
nandie heres me took 25/1 after checking oddsceheker.com – you just cant win! Its a good price and the best you will ever get as mandie confirms – glad only ne bookie took him out or I would be suspecting the worse.
#259
March 20th, 2010 19:43
Looking at list I posted up for Maureen any got a definitive list of defo non runners to add to Nick’s?
Please post up entire list so it’s rolling. Thanks
#260
March 20th, 2010 19:43
Re: AS
I mean too him out” to 33/1 ofcourse
#261
March 20th, 2010 19:48
go on go on go on, how I enjoyed father Ted this week on ch4!
great to see his daughter walsh win and what with all the family there well, it was quite moving.
As for you and your biscuits showlad, well shant scoff, I ate all mine.
#262
March 20th, 2010 19:59
showlad you sound like something off father ted with your go on go on go on.
systs real ball ache you taking 25′s and in a matter of hours you could have got 33′s, still chap remember on at 25′s is better than not.
think this price change is only temp. and not something to worry about and don’t think the rest will follow but you never know.maybe hills are just adjusting there book and doing some balanceing.
#263
March 20th, 2010 19:59
Lol KJ
I do feel team, that on reflection the key lead up races and Chelts have been kind to us (today too) with hardly any breaking through..
I do feel also though that this opens up to something just kicking into form lol – but then if we thought like that we’d bet on nothing.
In retrospect lack of runs and last minute form/fitness runs, as very cleverly stated today are now starting to collide.
I think the super fit horses, peaking correctly, instead of quite a bit ahead, are STREETS AND STREETS AND STREETS ahead this year.
#264
March 20th, 2010 20:01
just had 8 custard creams on a top up bet.
#265
March 20th, 2010 20:10
Avoid that Jammy dodger though Mandie love, it could be the financial ruin of you.
I spent my vanilla slice, doubled up with a choc chip cookie and now I’m out on the streets..
You’re bloody hilarious Mandie..
#266
March 20th, 2010 20:16
Weights will be announced 2pm Monday for Irish National. To confuse us further it seems there will be a fair bit of overlap with GN. Link here for anybody who’s interested…
http://www.meathchronicle.ie/sport/horseracing/articles/2010/03/18/3995735-entries-for-fairyhouse-national-revealed/
Never heard of Meath before.
#267
March 20th, 2010 20:16
financial ruin showwy OH CRUMBS.
if you like alot of chocolate on your biscuit BIG FELLA join our club THANKS.
#268
March 20th, 2010 20:32
Hi Thai (crumbs, that rhymes) anywhere we can get Irish GN entry list?
Fairyhouse web does not have up yet..
#269
March 20th, 2010 21:03
Guess what video my friends got for us to watch,
State of Play!
#270
March 20th, 2010 21:05
OOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHH those KJ crystals will be a shakin in the wind…could it be a sign KJ?
#271
March 20th, 2010 21:08
Hi Showlad
Not 100% non runners but the list above all taken out of Racing Post betting and as said My Will is 999/1 on the exchanges…but will keep an eye on RP list and inform as it happens…
#272
March 20th, 2010 21:23
So all below out Nick, ye? Thanks.
4 Taranis
15 Casey Jones
20 My Will
22 War of A.
35 Louping D’Ainey
39 GTL
43 Follow The Plan
70 Coe
#273
March 20th, 2010 23:07
Actually those taken out could be quite helpful for shortening our list of the top 6 (pity about GTL though if he is out but not surprised).I can stop worring about CJ, MW, WOA all of whom had chances according to some.
In the week of the race I think it will be very clear and we wil be down to about 4 real propects (KJ can you hear that). Had no answer to my query about BFT – to back or not – is he a real danger? (no value at all).
#274
March 20th, 2010 23:32
mandie, mandie – strong opinion alert,
Perhaps you should look away or have a cup of tea.
Mon Mome did run a cracker but we are looking for the GN winner.
What a difference a week makes. A few horses that I thought might still have a slim chance have now blown it. I think at this stage we can now write off –
My Will, War Of Attrition, Character Building, Air Force One, Gone To Lunch, Cane Brake(102 days), Razor Royale, Iris De Balme and Silver Birch.
What can I say about AS & HB.
Arbor Supreme I think would be better in the Irish National and Hello Bud in the Scottish National but if his OR drops anymore he might not even get in to the SN.
The 3 I think that can win the GN -
Dream Alliance
Snowy Morning
Eric’s Charm
So no change there then. Most of the time I think Snowy is home and hosed but some times I hear a little crisp 73 voice saying ” whats he done, no Hcap wins, no 25f. wins etc”. So then I think Eric is the one, matches all the stats, nice wt. etc. but then I hear a little miine voice saying ” does Eric have the class, beware of improving older horses, jumping right means he will run 5 miles etc”.
That leaves me with Dream Alliance, who again matches all stats but can a horse with 11.03 win. He was 2nd. to Denman in the Hennessy when Denman was Denman.
Looking at past winners I think you would always have a doubt anyway about something before they win.
For me at this stage it boils down to 4 questions -
1- Will the wts. rise.
2- If they don’t, can Dream give Snowy 4Lbs. or Eric 8Lbs.
3- Can Snowy give Eric 4Lbs.
4- Does Eric have the class.
Go on Snowy or Go on Eric or Go on Dream.
#275
March 21st, 2010 00:55
Miinnehoma I would agree,except I put Arbor Supreme in the maybe pile, because he’s good enough but we don’t yet know if he’s going for it. Eric Charm is fast becoming the dark horse, pardon the pun, on this blog and he won the London national, my little contribution to this team.
#276
March 21st, 2010 05:41
Sorry Showlad, can’t find complete list of Irish National entries either. Will have to wait until 2pm Monday for weights (maybe they’ll be back at work then after St Patricks day).
While looking I did find this interesting quote from Charlie Mann on Air Force One
“His main target would be one of the Nationals – either the English, Scottish or Irish – but they are all within about 10 days of each other. Because of that, he might go for the Irish National and then the Whitbread (bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on April 24). It’s the only way you could do it to give him time between his races.”
If Charlie thinks that way others may do as well – easier race & another 4 days rest.
#277
March 21st, 2010 06:08
Miinnehoma – I didn’t see Razor Royale’s race in the William Hill – was it that bad that he should be written off? Comments suggest he was chasing leaders until 4 out then hit a fence & tailed off. May have been ordered to do so by NTD if no chance.
I’m desperate this year to hold on to my last few fancies – really aren’t many left for me.
Arbor drifting at Betfair – now 32 from 25 yesterday so maybe Irish is the target.
#278
March 21st, 2010 08:45
Good post minnemoma some interesting stuff. Looks
Like some of the jigsaw puzzle finally falling
Into place . Im removing Iris from my list
Im now left with
Dream Alliance
Niche Market
My Will – looks iffy according to some
What exchange site is he 999 on ?
Snowy Morning
Ollie Magern
Arbor Supreme
Erics Charm
Irish raptor – remove only 3 prep runs
Hello Bud
So that would leave these magnificent 7 assuming
My will doesnt run
Dream Alliance
Niche Market
Snowy Morning
Ollie Magern
Erics Charm
Arbor Supreme
Hello Bud
Lets see what this week brings! :_)
#279
March 21st, 2010 09:10
Some market drifters on Betfair this morn :
Could be something about nothing but worth noting for any who want to get on at a price!
Niche Market 17 -> 27s
Arbor Supreme 25 ->32s
Cant Buy Time 60 -> 110s
#280
March 21st, 2010 09:27
I see Erics Charms is now 65′s on Betfair, Money coming in for him?
#281
March 21st, 2010 09:43
I think Cant Buy Time i going for the Topham. Cant explain the drift on the other 2 though? AS for the Irish maybe?
#282
March 21st, 2010 09:44
Cane brake has come in from 150.0 to 65.0
Cant think why?
#283
March 21st, 2010 09:52
Yes Ewok . spotted that – thats a strange one . I can only assume it means hes going for the big one but would be nice to see another prep run before he turns up . Thats whats putting most people off at the mo…
I can’t see My Will anywhere at 999/1 on Betfair.. so I’ll have to add him back in
And then there were 8 !
Dream Alliance
Niche Market
My Will
Snowy Morning
Ollie Magern
Erics Charm
Arbor Supreme
Hello Bud
#284
March 21st, 2010 10:45
Team Inportant Post:
It’s crunch Sunday the day before Irish weights announced and I have a little theory: Is Arbor drifting as he is entered in Fairyhouse? Is Cane coming in because he isn’t?
MEGA IMPORTANT TASK: If any of us can find out ANY info today on key runners with a Q mark then a huge huge GOLD STAR lol.
Maybe if you’re going to Fairyhouse for the Irish GN you could call them today and ask if a certain horse is entered? Anyone with stable contacts give them a call and ALL of us scour the websites and sources and report back.
Thanks Thai Mark, Seahorse, Silver and Ewok for eagle eyed reports on changes.
#285
March 21st, 2010 10:48
Do you think that Niche Market is going back to Ireland instead? Warming more to Erics Charm especially since hearing that he is a half brother to Monkerhostin [so must have stamina on the damside]. And have to risk an ew at a huge price on Ollie.
#286
March 21st, 2010 11:38
The problem for some of us could be that AS will be enteerd for the Irish National and GN and the owner/trainer will not make up thier mind till jsut before the Irish National (they probably have not yet decided)!! – which is why the price may have drifted. JP would be a fool not to run AS in the GN his best chance for years.
NM drifting – a bit of a worry.
Not a good year for anti-post and I may play it somehwhat different next year.
#287
March 21st, 2010 12:09
Now let me stress this post has no guarantees whatseover, is not from Willie Mullins and is only what I personally have been told today:
Him getting in on the weights etc also a factor.
I have been told that no ultimate final decision has been made for Arbor Supreme but Aintree is the likely destination
#288
March 21st, 2010 12:16
systems could not agree more about next year and ap bets,looks like we have our fingers burnt on a few this year
#289
March 21st, 2010 12:24
Nah AP bets best for me – FORTUNE FAVOURS THE BRAVE!!
#290
March 21st, 2010 12:24
But I think if the trinner reckons he has a chance in the GN he would let him run instead of the irish. Remember there is a massive difference in prize money between the the GN and the irish.
If he doesn’t run then the trainer mustn’t think he is good enough and good job for us one less to consider. Pity i have backed him antepost though. Which reminds me is any bookies doing money back nrnb yet.
#291
March 21st, 2010 12:27
trinner should say trainer. My spelling on here is bad. But in my defence my laptop is missing a button which the dog ate.
#292
March 21st, 2010 12:33
give him one of showlads biscuits then john.
#293
March 21st, 2010 12:51
Silver – you’ve got 3 x 12year olds in your final 8. Ambeleigh house last “oldie” to win and he & Ginger were a bit special. Don’t see that with Hello, Eric or Ollie. The former 2 don’t have the right stamina figures in their pedigree compared to previous GN winner trends. Ollie may do although his figures are incomplete so unable to tell (not won in xxx races so don’t have a lot of faith anyway).
I’m not writing 12 year olds off totally but they do seem to struggle with the fast nature of the course these days. I’d much prefer a progressive 8 year old (like Razor & Arbor) and would be interested to hear thoughts on the matter.
#294
March 21st, 2010 13:09
#289 John, bet365 have NRNB and e/w 5 places
available.though not the best odds on offer for
some of the contenders.
#295
March 21st, 2010 13:26
It is a bit kids V grandparents isn’t it, as Rascal put it. I t is safer to go for the 8 yr olds but riskier at the same time. Continually drawn back to this lot too. Taken half my friends stake on Eric so I can celibrate IF he wins and takes out my other horses,. if they live anyway. Now I quite fancy Ollie, less so Bud but I can’t back 3 12yr olds!
Niche drifting is bad for us lot on at lower prices, and I read it as worry he’s had an exhausting few runs and done well, before cheltenham, which wasn’t bad as he doesn’t like it there, but others in those races have run poorly since and maybe people guessing its the end of the line for him this season. Hope it isn’t.
Arbor S, like I said before seems pretty ground dependant to me (discuss) and I think the weather will be a factor in deciding where they go, which I don’t think they have.
#296
March 21st, 2010 14:23
Silver Birch:
My Will is 999/1 on Sporting Bet but seems to be generally 33′s or 40′s on others giving a price.
The other six I mentioned above all taken out of RP betting list and 5 of the 6 have DOUBTFUL next to them on the card…which to my mind is a tad disrespectful to poor CJ…surely they can put SCRATCHED next to him?
#297
March 21st, 2010 14:28
Thanks for that update Nick
#298
March 21st, 2010 14:36
My thoughts on all the NTD entries:
He has said he will run all that ‘get in’ so he could have 6+ runners (Beat The Boys, Ballyfitz, OM, Irish R, Razor R, Hello B and less likely Knowhere). My view is with his staying chasers (NOT IC) he tends to run them too often and too quickly and they either have very in and out form … BTB 1P1PP or we are left desperately trying to justify our previous faith in the likes of Hello B on figures of 735U87….
IC and Baby Run have had light campaigns and they won at Chelt. So Irish Raptor has form over the Aintree fences (1st and 2nd in Topham)and only 3 runs this season (not sure thats enough but rather that than any of his others who have too many miles/runs)so if I had to have a NTD horse in my top six….Irish Raptor would be the one.
#299
March 21st, 2010 14:43
Just went to top up my bet on Dream Alliance who was 50/1 with W Hills only to find he had gone in to 33′s. Still 50/1 with oddschecker, though. Hobb’s horses are in great form at the moment.
#300
March 21st, 2010 14:46
Ok Cheers Nick – Thats a strange one with My Will . Wish someone would come out and clarify one way or the other . I’ll keep a watching brief for the time being . Maybe hell do a Binocular!
#301
March 21st, 2010 15:11
If you fancy him its worth opening an account on SB and having £1 ew!!
#302
March 21st, 2010 15:30
Thaimark -fair points . 3 12 year olds in my list doesnt exactly inspire me with confidence but given there is so much lack in depth of quality 8 and 9 year olds this season , Im not sure Ive got much other choice.!
I guess bottom line for me is I put aged second to making sure I have an out and out stayer in the field, a fact I believe is consistently underestimated
Lets look back over the past 5 years on the first 2 at Aintree
2009 Mon Mome – 2ND Welsh Nat 3m 5f, COD 1st Aintree 4m4f
2008 COD – 1st Eider 4m 1f, KJC 2nd 3M
2007 Silver Birch – 1st Welsh Nat 3m 5f, McKelvey 1st 4m 1F Uttoxeter
2006 Numbersixvalverde – 1st Irish Nat 3m 5f. Hedgehunter 1st Aintree 4m 4f
2005 Hedgehunter – 3rd Welsh National 3m 5f, Royal Auclair 2nd 3m 6F Whitbread
2004 Amberleigh House – 3rd Grand National 4m4f
Clan Royal 1st 3m 3f
So my own passionate belief is that the most important attribute out of everything is STAMINA STAMINA STAMINA – We need to find the stayers whether theyre youngsters or pensioners ane even horror of horrors if theyre carring more than 11 stone!
So going Back to the 8 and their best ventures over a punishing stamina sapping trip:
Dream Alliance – 1st 3m 6f
Niche Market – 1st 3m 5f
My Will – 3rd 4m 4f
Snowy Morning – 3rd 4m 4f
Ollie Magern – 2nd 3m 3f
Erics Charm – 1st 3m 6f
Arbor Supreme – 1st 3m5f
Hello Bud – 1st 4m 1f
So I’d have to say despite being in any way a dosage expert I’d be more than confident that all of these horses will stay and age maybe is of secondary importance compared to ability to run and run and run forever
However its maybe worth opening up a disussion on who are the stamina packed gee gees that are likely to run who will be there at the death and wont be vying for an oxygen mask
Suggestions on stamina ladens carrying 11-4 or
less at the mo based on previousform in the book
Surely the winners in here !
Niche Market
Dream Alliance
Tricky Trickster
My Will
Snowy Morning
Character Building
Chelsea Harbour
Ballyfitz
Erics Charm
Ollie Magern
Arbor Supreme
Parsons Pistol
Hello Bud
#303
March 21st, 2010 15:38
One last point and then Ill go away! – for the 13 above , I’ll be interested to see where they figure on Daniels system to see if there is any relationship ..
#304
March 21st, 2010 16:11
Just read an article in RP that says D Johnson owner and D Pipe trainer v v keen to run The Package and if he gets in T Murphy is convinced it will stay and will prob get off COD to ride him…
I think his run at Chelt was excellent but its only 7yo…….and we all know that stats for that…but the Pipe team very sweet on him.
#305
March 21st, 2010 16:17
Right let’s review those intended runners over Cheltenham and Uttoxeter this past week!
Tuesday 16th March:
Beat The Boys pulled up 2.40 cheltenham,
Character Building finished 12th 2.40 cheltenham,
Chief Dan George won 2.40 cheltenham,
Comply Or Die finished 13th 2.40 cheltenham,
Joe Lively finished 14th 2.40 cheltenham,
Knowhere fell in the 2.40 cheltenham,
Niche Market finished 9th 2.40 cheltenham,
Officier De reserve finished 10th 2.40 cheltenham,
Offshore Account finished 4th 2.40 cheltenham,
Ollie Magern finished 7th 2.40 cheltenham,
Priests Leap finished 13th 4.00 cheltenham,
Thats all the intended runners for aintree I could find running on Tuesday, removed Casey Jones from list (R.I.P.).
Now we move on to Wednesday,
Abbeybraney pulled up 1.30 cheltenham,
Air Force One fell 3.40 Down Royal.
So unless I missed something only two ran on wedenesday, so we move on to Thursday.
Albertas Run won 4.00 cheltenham,
Don’t Push It pulled up 2.05 cheltenham,
Galant Nuit 3rd 4.40 cheltenham,
Hello Bud 7th 4.40 cheltenham,
Made In Taipan Pulled up 4.00 cheltenham,
Oodachee 10th 4.40 cheltenham,
Palypso De Creek 14th 2.05 cheltenham,
Parson’s Legacy unseated rider 4.40 cheltenham,
War Of Attrition 12th 3.20 cheltenham.
That’s all I can find on Thursday, so we move onto Friday (Gold Cup Day),
Cerium 8th 3.20 cheltenham,
Mon Mome 3rd 3.20 cheltenham,
Mr Pointment 10th 3.20 cheltenham,
My Will 7th 3.20 cheltenham,
Possol 5th 2.40 cheltenham,
Roulez Cool brought down 4.00 cheltenham,
Tricky Trickster 9th 3.20 cheltenham,
Onto Saturday (Midlands National day),
Iris De Balme pulled up 3.15 uttoxeter,
Kornati Kid pulled up 3.15 uttoxeter,
Lorum Leader pulled up 3.15 uttoxeter.
These are all the week’s intended Grand national runners I could find and their finishing positions plus race details, apologies if I missed any.
Hope this helps with your points system Daniel.
#306
March 21st, 2010 16:18
I’ve got a list from last years racingforum that Kendal Cavalier did re staying pedigrees[that's when I got more interested in that sort of thing, having always only looked at the sire and not the damsire before] and on that list were Ballyfitz. Character Building, Cloudy Lane, Maljimar and Ollie Magern. Another reason why Ballyfitz has been bothering me for so long. They were all the right age as well; 9 last year. Ollie was 11 [the age I like the least next to 7] but 12 doesn’t bother me. Of course Eric and a few others weren’t on the scene last year. I hope KC doesn’t mind me putting this down or misinterpreting what he said. Can’t wait to hear what Daniel has to say, and, with Tuesdays scratchings everything should be a lot clearer [she says hopefully].
#307
March 21st, 2010 16:21
The Package Chelt Tues 2nd
Faasel Chelt Weds 2nd
Trust Fund Chelt Thurs 9th
Other than that great list Neil!!
#308
March 21st, 2010 16:23
Oh and Silver Birch was all but last Chelt CC Tues
#309
March 21st, 2010 16:25
Sorry I missed The Package 2nd 2.40 cheltenham (Tuesday)
#310
March 21st, 2010 16:27
Thanks Nick, doing it from memory plus runners index from Racing Post for those particular days.
Together we’ll crack it!
#311
March 21st, 2010 16:44
Isn’t the Package 7! Timmy going to get off COD I’m quite shocked!
#312
March 21st, 2010 16:46
To add to Monday’s Chelts list Daniel, The Package of ofcourse came 2nd to Chief Dan George.
#313
March 21st, 2010 16:48
Hi Neil didn’t spot your addition.
V interesting 7 year old The Package..
#314
March 21st, 2010 17:06
Happy Birthday The Package! actually 7 tmw
#315
March 21st, 2010 17:09
Thats okay Showddy waddy just thought I help Oh Danny Boy with his points system.
Personal score backed Comply Or Die and Irish Raptor.
At this rate I’ll have the entire field covered, but who cares as long as I make a profit at the end.
Going with Showaddy Waddy (you don’t mind me calling you that, if you do i’ll keep to showlad)
Jaffa Cakes on Niche Markets, Arbor Supremes, Iris De Balme, Mon Mome, Dream Alliance, State Of Play.
Hobb Nobbs on Comply Or Die & Irish Raptor
Broken Biscuits on Mr Pointment and some with Niche Market (extra bet)
Crumbs.
#316
March 21st, 2010 17:16
Nothing on crisp 73, since Grand National tips (7) thread post 114 (march 5th).
He did seem to end that message on the cross side, hope he’s okay and his choice not to come back on this thread, and not because of ill health or worse.
Admin could you send an E-mail wishing him well please.
#317
March 21st, 2010 17:17
Yes KJ the Pipe team (The Package same owner as COD) really sweet on it and TM v. keen to ride it if it runs.
Maybe (like French breds till that stat fell) they ignore stats or don’t see it as a reason not to give it a big chance. I thoughtit ran great race at Chelt. so in form and other than the age it would be in my final six already…!!
Neil your great list made it easier for me to spot the one or two missing but think we got em all now!!
#318
March 21st, 2010 17:20
Whats every ones opinion on Abbeybraney. Personally I don’t think he’ll get in but might have a small fun bet on him if he did.
#319
March 21st, 2010 17:24
It ran rubbish at Chelt but the owners (G Wiley) always likes a runner or two so am sure it will line up if makes the cut….
#320
March 21st, 2010 17:41
Well Nick, Package certainly forward for what until tmw is a 6yr old
Really good run with Timmy onboard at cheltenham, signs there, only 8 chases but only once out of top3. Will obviously get further than the 25f he’s run so far. but late runs from the back of the field,. not a great idea in GN, I as jockey would show some loyalty this year and stick with my GN winner COD, bloomin hell, I’m on COD already really hope he attracts a good jockey and bloody wins, in your face greedy Tim! Atleast they’re all the same team, obviously they really rate him. Not another one to consider no!!!!
#321
March 21st, 2010 18:03
can I second the motion to contact Crisp73 please admin!
hope he ok, although I think it more likey he upset with the comment from DE somewhat compounding the tiff with Pablo. Which I thought weird as they’re ideas really bounced off each others, great part of the team. Maybe its just this yr being so hard, an absolute ‘If the winners not there I’m not playing’ to quote Mr.Crisp not long before this all happened. Know that feeling. Anyway Admin, can you say we miss him thanks.
#322
March 21st, 2010 18:06
ThaiMark, re- Razor royal.
Was in two minds about this horse before Chelt. Didn’t fancy him until crisp did a post on him. He does match most stats but not the 30/30 stat. The Racing Post chase does not throw up many GN winners unless combined with some other key race form, which he has not. The fact that he PU in Chelt. won’t stop him winning the GN but it’s made my mind up. He’s only 8, has 10.07(which I think is really 10.01 – but for Phil’s messing), has 7 prep runs, has the Strong Gale problem and I don’t think he has the class yet to win the GN – maybe next year.
#323
March 21st, 2010 18:37
Yes admin please drop Crisp a line
Just a non-intrusive GN Bloggers are asking for you, hope you are well type thing. Please
#324
March 21st, 2010 18:37
The Package must have had a very tiring race at Cheltenham; I think connections were astounded that The Chief beat him [although all credit to them they were the first to congratulate the winner....which is what I would expect from David Pipe; never seen him without a smile on his face at the races]
#325
March 21st, 2010 18:40
Showlad
March 21st, 2010 12:24
Nah AP bets best for me – FORTUNE FAVOURS THE BRAVE!!
+ Mandie
I did not say I would not make any AP bets just be a little more careful as I do agree with Showlad – its do or die for me most years! (Showlad cant wait for you final Euroviion opinion on OLBG – I have it down to 4 possible to win).
NM looks OK on Betfair now and I think the issue about AS is to do with no final decision not yet made but as Showlad had indicated they probably would like to run him in the GN – its my view also but its a gut reaction (not just because I have stacks of money on hm).
#326
March 21st, 2010 18:42
Showaddy Waddy is just fine with me
Thanks Neil and Nick for getting all info for Dan (saw Neil had covered my post and then later saw you had already covered Neils, Nick, lol). As long as we get there between us.
There will be a bit of a heartstopper 2mo with Irish GN weights – but don’t worry team,many, including Arbor I think, will hold 2 entries until they are sure they get into Aintree and/or weigh up options.
#327
March 21st, 2010 18:44
Yes Systemsman I am now on Arbor too, my news today tipped me into the positive and I went forward in faith before value gone:)
Yes my Eurovision list v soon and will contain a different Top 4 from yours!!
#328
March 21st, 2010 19:19
Just like to echo the comments re Crisp
Crisp – I never meant for any confrontation and was only ever giving an alternative view (Devil’s Advocate if you like) – only meant to challenge not to disrespect – and we have jointly helped each other to develop some analyses like RPR-OR and handicap form etc (I was even an advocate of strike-rate for a while!)
Your work, together with Systemsman’s, is and has been the heart of this blog – I know I’m not only speaking for myself because I think we have all learned a huge amount from the pair of you
#329
March 21st, 2010 20:15
Systemsman – you asked about my rankings after Midlands National
Remember these can change with any rise in weights, withdrawals etc
Caveat – as a trends-based rating this is a model based on past performance etc etc
Every winner has been in the top 3 (or equal) since 1990 (exception Red Marauder who was rated 4th but only 1 point behind the third-rated horse)
So these are the top 3 rated and equal (= 31 points or more, plus those rated 1 point below) – and clearly not all will run (plus ratings may change)
32 Arbor Supreme
32 Mon Mome
31 Chelsea Harbour (best rating achieved)
31 My Will (equal top rating)
30 Ballytrim
30 The Package
30 Snowy Morning (best rating achieved)
30 Le Beau Bai
30 War Of Attrition
30 Vic Venturi
(State Of Play is also considered because he can’t run within 50 days and perform, as is Big Fella Thanks who scores very highly if you ignore dosage, which I am still slightly uncertain about)
Ones to note for me are The Package (as mentioned in posts above – which is interesting – to me at least!) and Chelsea Harbour (thrown a few quid at on Betfair at a huge price just in case!)
#330
March 21st, 2010 20:30
Chelsea Harbour! So my 50 pence each way may not be wasted?
#331
March 21st, 2010 20:47
Its interesting that Mon Mome is rated so highly, like I said last week not done anything wrong, and probably still have a realistic chance on top weight
#332
March 21st, 2010 20:48
The last of the 50/1 still available tonight with William Hill on both Dream Alliance (only WH) and Hello Bud. Both should run and after Tuesdays declarations I would expect the price to start to drop a bit especiely DA (well worth taking “50/1″ if only as a saver). This year I would be looking for a race day price on the winner of under 30/1 so anything now over 50/1 that also has higher prices quoted looks unlikely. I just dont see two big price winners in a row (so I will be worried if HB does not start to drop in price soon).
Any thoughts on price?
#333
March 21st, 2010 21:09
You’re probably right Systemsman, but it has happened in the past.
1928 Tipperary Tim 100/1
1929 Gregalach 100/1.
2009 Mon Mome 100/1
2010 Unknown ???/?
#334
March 21st, 2010 21:16
Will update my points system on Tuesday after the entries.
Thanks for the lists though guys
#335
March 21st, 2010 21:21
So Pablo to be clear: You’ve had 20/20 of the winner in your top 3 for the last 20 years (except RM)?
#336
March 21st, 2010 21:27
Pablo many thanks for that list – very interesting. I really do want to compare it now with Daniels post Cheltenham list (I only have two of your 10 so far so am a bit worried). I’am going to really panic if AS does not run based on this list!
Wont be backing Mon Mome due to weight (youve got to take some risk unless you backing all 40!!)
Wont back Chelsea Harbour as 237/1 on oddscekecrker tonight
Wont back Ballytrim as 370/1 on Oddschecker tonight (but others have him 33/1 – 66/1)strange?
Wont back Le Beau Bai as 104/1 on Oddschecker tonight (others have him 40/1- 66/1) strange again?
Wont back War Of Attrition as very unlikely to run (unles confirmed late runner in which case I may back him).
And I dont fancy VV but will review all those below you listed below(I have AS and SM so far).
So that leaves to consider:
32 Arbor Supreme
31 My Will (equal top rating)
30 The Package
30 Snowy Morning (best rating achieved)
30 Vic Venturi
Pablo if weights go up 3lb have would that change your list?
#337
March 21st, 2010 21:39
It’s amazing how people’s different points systems come up with such varying results! I’ve just finished mine and Chelsea Harbour actully came SECOND BOTTOM on -22!!
#338
March 21st, 2010 22:00
Speedyseagull any chance of posting your top 10 with points? The more info the better.
#339
March 21st, 2010 22:07
Systemsman – if weights go up 3lb then Snowy on 11’2 so would lose ground on the others – more weight than in 2008
Speedy – did surprise me did old CH so had to back him at big price just in case – but agree funny how opinions and systems can differ so much
Still there’s plenty of time for CH and others to be declared non runners and weights to rise
I really need to wait for 5 day decs and then day of race card
#340
March 21st, 2010 22:12
Hi Pablo could you answer my post #333 thanks:
So Pablo to be clear: You’ve had 20/20 of the winner in your top 3 for the last 20 years (except RM)?
#341
March 21st, 2010 22:54
Showlad 18/19 in top 3 or equal third but have to remember that it is with hindsight and modelling previous results.
If I’d 18/19 winners the bookies would no longer take my bets! And I’d be relaxing in the sunshine rather than braving the British weather.
I used stricter rules on dosage last year and missed Mon Mome. Also I used price as an indicator.
This year I have amended to ignore price and now I give the benefit of the doubt to horses with dosage points less than 10.
I don’t know why I included price last year because I never use price as a guide for other handicaps – in fact as a rule if I really really fancy a horse I bet more the bigger the price (crazy it may sound but nice when it comes in – just have to take a long term view).
Using dosage points less than 10 meant that Mr Frisk, Royal Athlete, Red Marauder & Mon Mome all improved their ratings.
So there is a big element of back-dating which is not ideal but is I suppose a trends thing.
After all it is only meant to be a guide and not gospel – Foinanvon and all that!
I had expected a few clear front runners on ratings (as has been the case recently) – in which case I would have backed them blind – but this year it looks tight and so I will use my judgement (and probably still get it wrong!). But I will at least cover my stakes with the top 3 just in case.
I back at least 3 because only 37% of runners since 1990 have finished including many of my top 3 rated. So 3 runners gives a good chance of one finishing – hopefully 1st!
Sorry to have all these caveats but it is only a system and like Speedy says they do differ. But I guess if the same names crop up time after time in everyone’s lists and they are not the favourites we have some value don’t we?
#342
March 21st, 2010 22:59
Yep, I won’t ramble on explaining how the points are scored and deducted but needless to say it’s all to do with current form, favoured conditions, trends etc. The list changes slightly dependant on going. This Top 10 is based on g/s ground as that is what i think it might be. It is also based on the top 3 of the weights coming out. If one of them doesn’t, then the points will change again:
18 Eric’s Charm
11 Vic Venturi
11 Mon Mome
10 Big Fella Thanks
9 Arbor Supreme
7 The Package
6 Razor Royale
4 Snowy Morning
4 Gone to Lunch
3 Hello Bud
Obviously GTL prob won’t run but he is there for now.
The bottom 10 are:
-22 Irish Raptor
-21 Chelsea Harbour
-20 Deutschland
-20 Follow the Plan
-20 Preists Leap
-20 Pablo du Charmil
-20 Flintoff
-16 Lennon
-16 Possol
-16 Made in Taipan
I’ve only gone down to Whinstone Boy and ties in the weights
#343
March 21st, 2010 23:02
I can’t boast any exact stats about past performance as have only done it for past 3 nationals. I think the winner has come from my top 10 each year. Mon Mome was 8th. Comply or Die was 2nd. Silver birch was 6th (McKelvey was 1st).
#344
March 22nd, 2010 01:31
Not heard from stayer too, did he have a good cheltenham.
Will he have a good Aintree,will we all have a good aintree.
Kj on a lighter note did you enjoy your film,I recommend The Shining, the a grand national winner mentioned in it too.
RED RUM which is murder backwards.
#345
March 22nd, 2010 02:30
had a little dunk (with a broken biscuit) on ballytrim at 33/1 any chance at all he will line up on the day ? or is he to far down the ranks ?
#346
March 22nd, 2010 02:36
Speedy – as 2 of your top 10 will probably withdraw, could you tell us 11 & 12?
Other runners at Cheltenham:-
Ballyfitz, 13th
Razor Royale PU
Erics Charm is giving me a headache. Prefers to go right handed, 12 years old, not won a race over 25K (I use as inflation adjusted for old 17k) and never performed at Aintree but keeps popping up on these lists. Also declared for Bet 365 so what will the route be?
#347
March 22nd, 2010 02:48
Mr Frisk – Ballytrim was 92nd on first entries list and still 82nd so very unlikely to get in. Also declared for Irish National I believe so you may want to cover that as well if the chips allow.
Miinne – thanks for rationale on Razor. I think the 30/30 stat will be tweaked over the years. As RR has never run over 25f and has the right dosage figures I’m gonna give him benefit of doubt but accept that 10-10 (with a weights rise) may be too much for a 7/8 year old.
#348
March 22nd, 2010 04:10
mr frisk – Ballytrim is No.81 on the list – doesn’t look good, very slim chance but you never know.
ThaiMark – From what I have read I think the plan is for Eric to run in the GN.
#349
March 22nd, 2010 09:45
Hi all,
Hope everyone enjoyed The Festival! I had a great day out when we went on the Tuesday and the higlight of my week was backing Chief Dan George in the William Hill. Obviously I peaked to soon because it was pretty much all down-hill from then on!! Managed to limp out with only a small loss so not too bad when it was pretty much a punter’s bloodbath. Really sad what happened to Casey Jones and Citizen Vic. Citizen Vic was a smashing horse who had the potential to be very good indeed.
#350
March 22nd, 2010 09:47
Thai Mark Eric’s Sandown win was for £19k, it’s up to you, but no-one I know, lol, is using inflated qualification prices.
#351
March 22nd, 2010 09:51
If you’re going to use a figure for ‘highest value chase won’ then there should be some sort of inflation allowance – it would be ridiculous not to do this.
What is the lowest value ‘highest’ chase win any of the last ten had?
I dont use this stat by the way.
#352
March 22nd, 2010 10:17
Sorry dont know if its already been put up but BET365 have gone NRNB for the national
#353
March 22nd, 2010 10:19
If that’s the case Daniel all stats using the £17k minimum win will need to be redone.
I don’t think so…
#354
March 22nd, 2010 10:20
and still paying 5 places AP.
#355
March 22nd, 2010 10:21
Sorry Showlad, I dont follow you?
#356
March 22nd, 2010 10:35
Lots of of us in our private points systems, 30/30 stats etc use min win £17K. If we start to up the minimum win bar by inflation gradients then that’s gonna take a whole lot of extra work.
Anyway, more importantly, when are we getting your new points update for your system
How did you do at Chelts up overall, break even or a loss?
#357
March 22nd, 2010 10:47
Just because something is hard work, doesnt mean it should be done!!
Personally I think the placed in a C1 chase stat covers the logic behind the 17k stat and with a greater degree of certainty, so I just use this.
Having turned a nice profit on the first day and won the placepot on the second, I took all of my winnings with me to the course on Friday…..and spanked everylast penny.
So in answer to your question, I broke even…to the penny!
#358
March 22nd, 2010 11:02
Pablos list (if I carry on like this nothing will be left!):
So I was left with:
So that leaves to consider:
32 Arbor Supreme
31 My Will (equal top rating)
30 The Package
30 Snowy Morning (best rating achieved)
30 Vic Venturi
Wont be backing The Package to win. Aged 7 (when did the last 7 year old win?) and French (two in row I dont think so). Only ONE chase win from 8 runs (that would set a new trend. Needs more time – one for the future perhaps). Will he even get in?. But bags of potential so may have to be considered for a sstakes “Saver” – still not sure even about this (unless Daniel also has him in his list).
Wont be backing Vic Venturi ste to carry at least 11.06 (when did a GN winner last carry this much.). OR/RPR only +2. Failed twice over 29f so may only be good up to 26/27F. The weight will do him in against other top runners.
So that now leaves:
32 Arbor Supreme
31 My Will (equal top rating)
30 Snowy Morning (best rating achieved)
And note My Will is French – two in a row??? (that seems unlikley but he remaisn a possible at this stage). Will Daniel also have him in his list?
#359
March 22nd, 2010 11:19
Ill post the list after the decs tomorrow (Wednesday) but I cant imagine much has changed given what happened (or didn’t happen) at Cheltenham.
But I will say that the Package features absolutely nowhere near the top of the list Systemsman, to put your mind at rest.
#360
March 22nd, 2010 11:29
The Stayer; did you see a totally deranged women screaming the place down when the Chief won? That would have been me..we watched it on the screen and then rushed paddockside to take photos of him. He totally bailed me out this week. I don’t usually put money on my favourite horses but for once I had a last minute sentimental bet on him. I didn’t know till later about Casey Jones. The lesson I learned this year [I should have remembered from last year] is to quit after day 3. The only horse I fancied on Friday was Barizan, but I still had bets on the other races.
#361
March 22nd, 2010 11:33
The races on day 4 are stupidly hard to call!
That didnt stop me backing 4 in the Vincent O Brien Hurdle though, did it!?
#362
March 22nd, 2010 11:37
Conduit that means the other bookmakers will follow suit very shortly.
Oh Danny Boy to adjust for inflation you have to know when this stat was first used and know the rate of inflation.
Showwaddy waddy I think that Danny Boy saying that probably 10 or 5 years ago 17k could have been the value of a listed or class 2 race, today it could be a class 3. 17k is probably still a valid figure to work with.
Stayer welcome back, don’t be a stranger
#363
March 22nd, 2010 11:51
Neil – those were my exact points. Its the reason I dont use the stat – it seems a slightly arbitary figure and nowadays a 17k chase isn’t exactly top class, so I dont see the point of it.
Example – I am not going to rule out a horse who has won a 14k chase two years ago who has since come 3rd in a Hennessy!!
#364
March 22nd, 2010 12:02
Thanks Neil. I haven’t been on here much over the last 2 weeks as i’ve been putting my efforts into Cheltenham and the National has taken a back seat. All eyes on Aintree now though.
Maureen,
I had seats in the Guinness Village and in my section I was seemingly the only one cheering/uncontrollably screaming “The Chief” home. Judging by the looks I was getting after the race everyone else must have been on The Package! Or maybe it was just the noise level – I did find it difficult to speak for about an hour aftewards!! It was a really good race for me as I had Ogee e/w as well. Wednesday and especially Thursday were very poor days for me. Friday was much better with Soldatino and Barizan e/w doing the business for me in the Triumph and Dee Ee Williams getting placed in the County. Tell Massini was bitterly disappointing though. Really fancied Ashkazar in ther Martin Pipe as he looked a plot job but he was pretty awful as well. Overall, I made profit on Tuesday and Friday but not enough to outweigh the losses from Wednesday and Thursday so I finished with a small loss. I’ll take that on the chin as I know others fared far worse.
#365
March 22nd, 2010 12:11
Just looked at Racing Rascal’s website (hope you don’t mind) for the form figures previous national winners came into the race with.
Taking from Little Polvier onwards (20 official winners),I see that won last time out is 4 in 20 or 20%, placed last out (1/2/3) 9 in 20 or 45%, and finished in top 9 last out 19 in 20 or 95% with only Red Marauder falling last time out. Rough Quest has two falls in the season he won, Pulled up along Monty’s Pass and Comply Or Die.
#366
March 22nd, 2010 12:12
I said earlier that Cant Buy Time is likely to run in the Topham – that was straight from the stables mouth. However, he is now available to back at 27.0 and available to lay at 36.0. Considering he was verging on 3 figure odds only a few days ago that is a significant shortening and suggests he will line up for the big one.
#367
March 22nd, 2010 12:35
Iris De Balme out of the National, and the Whitbread, according to the RP.
#368
March 22nd, 2010 12:43
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/grand-national-iris-de-balme-misses-national-and-bet365/694914/top/
#369
March 22nd, 2010 12:45
#52
miinnehoma
March 4th, 2010 22:15
Last 11 winners of GN.
Total win (win only) prize money (chase&hurdle) before winning GN and their 2 highest prize wins.
M.M. 94K (57k+18k)
COD 91K (30k+20k)
S.B. 119K (58k+43k)
No.6 152K (100k+34k)
H.H. 67K (16k+34k)
A.H. 72K (29k+13k)
M.P. 88K (51k+18k)
Bind 64K (18k+16k)
R.M. 60K (10k+29k)
Pap. 65K (17k+17k)
B.J. 89K (68k+09k)
My Top 3 -
Dream Alliance 96K (57k+25k)
Snowy Morning 93K (14k+21k)
Eric’s Charm 84K (18k+21k)
#370
March 22nd, 2010 12:53
hoping for some help from next forfeit stage,because still have too many horses and just keep going over everything.
only 2 horses meet 18/18 trends
hello bud
eric’s charm
then i’ve got seven on 17/18
beat the boys
parsons pistol
dream alliance
gone to lunch
ollie magern
arbor supreme(think he’ll run in irish)
can’t buy time
then these on 16/18
snowy morning
niche market
my will
character building
state of play
can’t back all 14, 4 max.
#371
March 22nd, 2010 13:05
Money is piling on Can’t Buy Time today [but not on betfair]. He was in my original list but I then ruled him out; age and stamina doubts, I think.
#372
March 22nd, 2010 13:05
I reckon you could lose My Will from that list at the next decs Andy.
It would be the training performance of a lifetime if State of Play can win given the fact his last run was 5 months ago.
Parsons Pistol has also been off the track for a while too.
#373
March 22nd, 2010 13:13
did’nt state of play finish 4th after a long lay off last year?
#374
March 22nd, 2010 13:17
i know my will & ollie have’nt had a win in last 10 chases.
#375
March 22nd, 2010 13:18
for some reason can’t get my head around top 2 being 12yrs old, don’t know what it is?
#376
March 22nd, 2010 13:19
Lets look at individual horses and not generic assumptions. What I mean is, whilst a 5 month lay off would be a negative for most horses, it IS NOT a negative for State of Play. Look at its historic form.
#377
March 22nd, 2010 13:20
He did Andy – but the lay off wasnt as long as this. Plus of course, he was well held by those in front of him.
I could see him running well again (top 6 maybe) but given that his price is quite small, dont think he represents good ew value myself.
#378
March 22nd, 2010 13:21
Just noticed this – The London National Chase (class 2) was worth 31K in ’08 but only 18K in ’09.
Eric was robbed of a 31K win on his CV.
Sandown
06 Dec 2008
« 3:35 betinternet.com London National Chase (Handicap) (Class 2) (0-145, 5yo+) (3m5f110y) 3m5½f Good To Soft 24 fences
£31,310.00, £9,250.00, £4,625.00, £2,315.00, £1,155.00, £580.00
Sandown
05 Dec 2009
« 3:30 betinternet.com London National Chase Handicap (Class 2) (0-150, 5yo+) (3m5f110y) 3m5½f Soft 23 fences 1 omitted
£18,786.00, £5,550.00, £2,775.00, £1,389.00, £693.00, £348.00
#379
March 22nd, 2010 13:24
Ewok – State of Play may be better fresh…
…but that doesnt mean he is better fresh than a horse who has had a decent prep!
if that makes sense!
The ‘days since last run’ is a strong one, in my opinion, as it applies to so many top class races. The Arc is a good example. No winner in the last 40 years has won it without a run in August/September…year after year there are horses who dont have a prep, year after year they are fancied, and year after year they get beat.
Look at the Championship races at Cheltenham, the Welsh National, The Derby, any other big races you can think of (Hennessy and Guineas aside being as they are at the start of the season) They are all almost ALWAYS won by a horse who has run in the previous 8 weeks or so (Gold Cup is more like 10 weeks)
State of Play might be better himself fresh and might run better at Aintree than if he had run at Cheltenham, or during February say, but that doesnt mean he will run better than all of the other horses who run regularly and take well to their racing.
#380
March 22nd, 2010 13:32
and, yes he does have some good performances fresh, but he has some that arent so good too (Gold Cup in 07, Charlie Hall 2nd when fave, handicap at the festival meeting in 08, this years Hennessy) so its no banker.
#381
March 22nd, 2010 13:45
Not totally shocked at Iris De Balme departure from the National, like I said he looked to have hated that experience on Saturday
#382
March 22nd, 2010 13:58
State Of Play is a conundrum and is bound to split opinion I guess
Purely in terms of handicapping he will run off the same mark as when he won the Hennessy (145)
Dream Alliance won the Welsh off the same mark (142) as when second to Denman in his Hennessy run
Ninetieth Minute was allowed to run off his Irish mark (140) when winning the Coral Cup last year – usually Irish horses are put up a few lbs because the handicapping system is different in Ireland
This year Thousand Stars was also allowed to run off only 1 or 2 lb more than his Irish mark and won the County hurdle (he had won 2 of his previous 3 starts while he had to carry >11’0 in the Pierse where he overjumped at a critical time having travelled very well)
The main reason why I was keen on Cane Brake was that he has been given a real chance off the same mark as when he won the Paddy Power (142, albeit 3 seasons ago) – however he has shown little form after an encouraging first run back over hurdles
State Of Play has shown much less this year – poor run in the Hennessy – but he was well-backed on the day the weights came out because he gets a 12 lb weight turnaround with Mon Mome
RP quote: “He was brilliant until the two before Becher’s then he dropped his back-end and I had to go to Plan B after those two mistakes. It was still Plan B until jumping Valentine’s then he jumped brilliantly again and I thought he would win two out. He just didn’t quicken with the winner. – Paul Maloney, jockey”
Big ‘if’ but if he is in form than he is entitled to go close I would have thought
The only problem is we have no racecourse evidence!
#383
March 22nd, 2010 14:03
Well said Pablo – ‘no racecourse evidence’ I think there are others at similar and bigger prices with better chances personally.
Obviously there are some at similar and smaller prices with worse chances too!! He’s far from a no-hoper, just not in my top 5 or so
#384
March 22nd, 2010 14:09
DE – I think he might rate a saver if he’s backed on the day but I couldn’t back him with any confidence otherwise
#385
March 22nd, 2010 14:15
Talk of the devil…
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/10/03/22/RACING_National.html
Trainer very bullish about SOP!
#386
March 22nd, 2010 14:16
Arbor Supreme coming in as well
#387
March 22nd, 2010 14:16
When are trainers not bullish!!
#388
March 22nd, 2010 14:22
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/j-t-r-dreaper-the-tother-one-p-f-nicholls-notre-pere-tops-irish-national-weights/694932/top/
Notre Pere co-heads the Irish National entries.
#389
March 22nd, 2010 14:22
Look how fit Evan Williams got Barizan the other day without seeing a racecourse for months. Like I said a couple of days ago, Longshanks ran a blinder a few years ago when unable to do any work in the run up to the race. I still remembet how distraught SoP’s jockey was last year, being convinced that with a clear round the horse would have won. The important thing is he said how much the horse was enjoying himself.
#390
March 22nd, 2010 14:23
Noted the story in RP about the Irish National weights topped by Notre P. but no list of the full entries….any ideas/links??
#391
March 22nd, 2010 14:25
Backstage & Chelsea Harbour due to run at Navan on Sat
#392
March 22nd, 2010 14:26
I’am going around in circles – just cant see past my top few:
AS
HB
SM
DA
NM
with GTL probably out)
Looking for about two mre but just not ahppy with any others 100% but it looosk like
Erics Charm next best
GN weight 10.09 very, very good
OR 143 for GN (now 149). Very good
OR/RPR + 4 poor
Won 6/24 chases very good
Thiseson 011 very good
Won at 25f or more this season (30f + 27f) – very good
Won or placed in last 3 runs – very good
TS 146 – very good
Won C2 Chase – good
Won C1 = No – not so good
Placed C1= Yes (2nd Betfred Gold Cup) – very good
30/30 stat won 3 x24for more with 1x30f and 1x27f – excellent (and must take note point)
Won in 18 runner race- very good.
12 year old – Ok but only just.
So not a bad 6th selection to take GTL’s place is it? Any views?
Is EC in the top 6 or not? On weight/trends he looks as good as NM who has only won twice and has a OR/RPR of +2.
#393
March 22nd, 2010 14:30
Maureen to my knowledge the only horse ever to run a great race with little/no prep in recent times was Mely Moss 2nd to Papillon with no run for 11 1/2 months before hand. I think if the ground is good or better then it would help horses with no/little mileage but if g/soft or worse then stamina must find them out…
I was on SofP last year so am not anti the horse but cant fancy it this year as one v. poor prep run.
#394
March 22nd, 2010 14:33
And to confirm…Iris DB (62) and New Alco (54) taken out of betting lists on RP…
#395
March 22nd, 2010 14:46
Barizan did indeed run a blinder Maureen…and then got picked off on the line by one who had a prep!!!
#396
March 22nd, 2010 14:47
And the ‘lay off’ factor…if we can make a comparison…Paula R might have done little road milage or warm up races in prep due to injury but could place in a Euro/World/Olympic 10k…..but not in the marathon.
I do think the lack of races for the National does matter where as for a shorter race it matters less so…
I guess there is ‘fresh’ and ‘ideally prepared’ but we are allowed to take a view on which matches which for which event…if that figures!!
#397
March 22nd, 2010 14:49
Talking about withdrawls etc…
even leaving War of Attrition in (you never know with Mouse!) Hello Bud is number 58 by my reckoning, which means he will almost certainly get a run.
There were 13 pulled out last time, with 11 of them coming from the top half.
Traditionally you get more pulled out after Cheltenham, so if, say, 25 come out this time, with 20 being in the top half, then Whinstone Boy will be getting pretty close!!
On the balance of probabilities, you would have to say he will miss out though.
Anybody wanna take a stab at number 40 on race day? Cerium maybe…
#398
March 22nd, 2010 14:49
Systems, re – Eric
It’s RPR-GNOR = 10, very good.
#399
March 22nd, 2010 14:51
I have to say Systemsman, your thinking mirrors mine.
If the race were today (assuming they were all entered) I think that list would be my idea of the best 6 bets FOR THE WIN ONLY, albeit not in that order.
#400
March 22nd, 2010 14:52
And to finish…the opposite is my view (and more than welcome for people to take the other side on this) that NTD over runs most of his staying chasers (either too often or too quickly)…as proven by IC and Baby Run winning at Chelt. with few miles on the clock so fresh (but not in terms of prep needed for 36f+!!) but most of his GN entries over cooked and I can’t fancy them (Irish R apart) for that reason…
#401
March 22nd, 2010 14:55
State of Play ‘very goooood’ as samuri sword maker said in Kill Bill,(RIP David Carradine) which I also watched at weekend Neil
if any horse can do it with no prep it is SOP, little guy loved it last yr, with some prep… couldn’t do it. Less weight this yr but basically dubious you can get a horse fitter than ALL the rest at home. Injured in last run I can’t remember what it was tho? as in is it possible it can go wrong again?
Glad Iris not running really I have to say, things not really gone his way and he really tried.
#402
March 22nd, 2010 14:57
lol Dan E you know I would love the final 40 to be 1 above Cerium but at this point I will say (71) Knowhere as think poss soft going might pull 1 or 2 more out this year than previously but would love Whinstone B (73) and even Faasel (74) get in esp after great Chelt run…!!
#403
March 22nd, 2010 15:01
If Whinstone Boy got in, I could see him being Pricewise’s tip on the day (the sort of horse he likes to throw up) and going on a single figure price!!!
I hope he doesnt get in though – would be another one I would have to back!
#404
March 22nd, 2010 15:06
If you/we anyone checks back WB was the first I put forward as a serious tip pre weights post entries but thanks to the great stats you boys put up (in WB’s case less than 8 or 9 chases?) then you made me think again…but most of the rest I have considered have all run dire since/been taken out/ fall down on other stats, that if WB gets in he will be in my top six mainly due to lack of credible alternatives at the min!!!
#405
March 22nd, 2010 15:08
And am a big Pricewise fan as DE Williams (e.w.) made it a profitable Chelt for me!!
#406
March 22nd, 2010 15:10
Arbor in Irish National with 11st. price 12/1.
#407
March 22nd, 2010 15:10
Snowy (147) & Arbor (145) entered at Fairyhouse both set to carry 11’0 or more
Surely GN for the pair rather than humping that sort of weight around Fairyhouse where bottom weight will likely be around 10’0?
#408
March 22nd, 2010 15:12
SoP had some sort of muscle problem in the Hennessy kj.
#409
March 22nd, 2010 15:16
Good to see in RP story they want CDG to run in the GN (forlorn hope methinks) and adds ammunition to my arguement that there should be small ‘penalties’ post GN weights so in form/progressive horses can overtake those on the downgrade/false mark rags and get the run they deserve!!! Grrrr….as they say…
#410
March 22nd, 2010 15:16
KJ is that Volume 1 or 2 either are blood baths. Just been watching some video form at my local bookies (Tote ) Vic and black being whipped in their becher’s, Backstage ran nicely into third, without troubling the leading pair in a hurdle race. Tricky coming from a mile back to collar Niche,but it was Mon winning his national hands and heels and coming third from a mile out in gold cup that impressed me.
#411
March 22nd, 2010 15:19
Any news about King Johns Castle [while we're talking about horses that haven't run for [err] a while! I’ve got a book that I kept prior to Cheltenham and, looking at it I wish I’d stuck with a lot of the horses I’d chosen at that point. Perhaps one of us should put ourselves into isolation for a couple of weeks and re emerge with a clear head [I'm not volunteering, though..]My head is totally scrambled; I need to focus somehow.
#412
March 22nd, 2010 15:21
KJC has been running moderately (if im being generous) over hurdles this season.
#413
March 22nd, 2010 15:24
Any link to full Irish Nat list??
‘Worrying’ re double entries on the basis that I can see owners putting a GN horse in a later race (SN or Bet365) on the basis of say ‘might need an extra week or two after Chelt/last run or ground not ours at Aintree…but to put them in an earlier race must mean that has to be fist choice /pref. unless given a real stopping weight…
#414
March 22nd, 2010 15:42
Irish entires:
54-4u 1 Notre Pere (FR)(155) (JTRDreaper) – 11,10
2 The Tother One(155) (PFNicholls (in
GB)) – . …………………… 11,10
3 Synchronised(151) (JO’Neill (in GB)) 11,06
fp-46 4 Aran Concerto(148) (NMeade) – ……. 11,03
5 Ballabriggs(148) (DMcCain Jnr (in
GB)) – . …………………… 11,03
32-33 6 Siegemaster(148) (DTHughes) – ……. 11,03
-3223 7 Snowy Morning(147) (WPMullins) – .. 11,02
12-30 8 Deutschland (USA)(146)
(WPMullins) – ………….. 11,01
p-3uf 9 Air Force One (GER)(145) (CJMann
(in GB)) – . ………………. 11,00
37-u2 10 Arbor Supreme(145) (WPMullins) – . . 11,00
u3ff- 11 Miko De Beauchene (FR)(145)
(MissVWilliams (in
GB)) – . …………………… 11,00
u36u- 12 Royal County Star(144) (AJMartin) – 10,13
54-00 13 Church Island(143) (MHourigan) – …. 10,12
15-p6 14 Equus Maximus(143) (WPMullins) – . 10,12
9-116 15 Quiscover Fontaine (FR)(143)
(WPMullins) – ………….. 10,12
56-11 16 Shakervilz (FR)(143) (WPMullins) – . . 10,12
0-1f2 17 Dooneys Gate(142) (WPMullins) – . … 10,11
u1-60 18 Ambobo (USA)(141) (MBrassil) – …… 10,10
55-20 19 Jayo (FR)(141) (WPMullins) – ………… 10,10
731-5 20 Oscar Time(141) (MMLynch) – . ……… 10,10
1-541 21 Dancing Tornado(140) (MHourigan) 10,09
-7531 22 One Cool Cookie(140) (CFSwan) – … 10,09
u-313 23 The Midnight Club(140) (WPMullins) 10,09
1u-01 24 Ballytrim(139) (WPMullins) – …………. 10,08
25 Sunnyhillboy(139) (JO’Neill (in GB)) 10,08
4-0/- 26 Theatrical Moment (USA)(139)
(JO’Neill (in GB)) – …… 10,08
6-6f2 27 Whatuthink(139) (OMcKiernan) – …… 10,08
111-8 28 Beroni(138) (WPMullins) – . ……………. 10,07
2p6/- 29 Flintoff (USA)(138) (MissVWilliams
(in GB)) – . ………………. 10,07
15-21 30 Moskova(138) (PNolan) – . …………….. 10,07
13-1p 31 Oscar Looby(138) (NMeade) – ………. 10,07
-f70- 32 Poker De Sivola (FR)(138) (FMurphy
(in GB)) – . ………………. 10,07
33 Galant Nuit (FR)(137) (FMurphy (in
GB)) – . …………………… 10,06
13-3f 34 Jered(137) (NMeade) – . ………………… 10,06
12-p9 35 Montero(137) (DTHughes) – ………….. 10,06
227-2 36 Alpha Ridge(135) (PNolan) – …………. 10,04
-2212 37 Becauseicouldntsee(135)
(NFGlynn) – . …………… 10,04
38 Nostringsattached(134) (JO’Neill (in
GB)) – . …………………… 10,03
p1p/- 39 Officier De Reserve (FR)(133)
(MissVWilliams (in
GB)) – . …………………… 10,02
14-23 40 Hangover(132) (CO’Dwyer) – …………. 10,01
341p- 41 The Last Derby (FR)(132) (EGriffin) – 10,01
04541 42 A New Story(131) (MHourigan) – ……. 10,00
9-312 43 Across The Bay(131) (NMeade) – ….. 10,00
31-p3 44 Beckett Rock(131) (MFMorris) – . …… 10,00
1500- 45 Double Dizzy (GB)(131) (RHBuckler
(in GB)) – . ………………. 10,00
01//- 46 Far More Serious(131)
(CELongsdon (in GB)) 10,00
u1f-0 47 Operation Houdini(131)
(DEFitzgerald) – ………. 10,00
4-215 48 Anothercoppercoast(130)
(PARoche) – . …………… 9,13
17-p2 49 Bluesea Cracker(130) (JMotherway) . 9,13
20-80 50 Knock On The Head(130)
(ALTMoore) – …………… 9,13
p-632 51 Selection Box(130) (CAMcBratney) – . 9,13
116-p 52 Treacle(130) (TJTaaffe) – ……………….. 9,13
p-u19 53 Nuvelli(129) (SDonohoe) – ……………… 9,12
44-21 54 Stewarts House(129) (ALTMoore) – . . 9,12
-4455 55 Wild Passion (GER)(129) (NMeade) . 9,12
60-0p 56 Pomme Tiepy (FR)(128) (WPMullins). 9,11
3-111 57 Saddlers Storm(128) (AJMartin) – …… 9,11
2-113 58 Will Jamie Run(128) (PStafford) – …… 9,11
2/-33 59 Window Of Hope(128) (TJTaaffe) – . .. 9,11
5-044 60 Bronte Bay(127) (PWFlynn) – …………. 9,10
61 Kia Kaha (GB)(127) (JO’Neill (in GB)). 9,10
28-28 62 Orpheus Valley(127) (PWFlynn) – …… 9,10
5312- 63 Wins Now (GB)(127) (NMadden) – ….. 9,10
5915p 64 Badgerlaw(126) (MrsJHarrington) – …. 9,09
43-25 65 Leanne(126) (WHarney) – ………………. 9,09
021-3 66 Agus A Vic(125) (PMartin) – ……………. 9,08
-p0-7 67 Dun Doire(125) (MrsPCurling) – ………. 9,08
0540- 68 Hoopy(125) (GElliott) – . ………………….. 9,08
4p5-5 69 Good Fella(124) (PMooney) – . ………… 9,07
3f-25 70 Hume River(124) (MrsJHarrington) – . . 9,07
////- 71 Idle Talk(123) (DMcCain Jnr (in GB)) . 9,06
32p-1 72 Lurgan(123) (DTHughes) – ……………… 9,06
688-u 73 Oulart (GB)(123) (DTHughes) – . ……… 9,06
-3869 74 Baily View(122) (MFMorris) – ………….. 9,05
71u-4 75 Lochan Lacha(122) (AJMartin) – . ……. 9,05
20-35 76 Casey Supreme(121) (LWhitmore) – . . 9,04
-2f23 77 Corskeagh Royale(121) (NMeade) – .. 9,04
936-5 78 Hold The Pin(120) (AJMartin) – ……….. 9,03
4u512 79 Jack The Bus(120) (PCasey) – . ………. 9,03
p-u76 80 Polmar (FR)(119) (WPMullins) – . …….. 9,02
p0-13 81 The Bosses Nephew(116) (JBrassil) . 8,13
555-3 82 Ide No Idea(109) (WJBurke) – . ………… 8,06
21p7- 83 Kells Castle (GB)(106) (GElliott) – …… 8,03
46-66 84 Lydon House (GB)(105) (GElliott) – …. 8,02
3111- 85 Themoonandsixpence (WPMullins) . NH
#415
March 22nd, 2010 15:52
I don’t see whinstone entered there, considering how low in GN list he is I am suprised, although maybe they entered him elsewhere at aintree for experience.
#416
March 22nd, 2010 15:53
I like the look of Saddlers Storm in the Irish National.
#417
March 22nd, 2010 16:03
I think Whinstone Boys connections said they were keen to run at Aintree albeit not in the National itself. Interested in Jered after his first fence fall at Cheltenham when well fancied and have to take an interest in Quiscover Fonteine if he runs. Looked like a donkey off the beach compared to the other horses at Cheltenham on Tuesday; need to rewatch the race. Can’t give up on him yet.
#418
March 22nd, 2010 16:22
Some good chatter today boys…
Meet you back here same time tomorrow?!
#419
March 22nd, 2010 16:27
Newbury Result
06 Mar 2010
« 2:35 » Blue Square Supporting Greatwood Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Class 2) (0-145, 10yo+) (3m2f110y) 3m2½f Good To Soft 21 fences
£10,019.20, £2,960.00, £1,480.00, £740.80, £369.60, £185.60
WATCH RACE – 20p
RESULT RATE RACE Hide all comments in running Show all pedigrees
HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR
« 1 Eric’s Charm (FR) 9/1 12 11-10 O Sherwood 143 * *
b g Nikos – Ladoun (FR) (Kaldoun) A P McCoy
Led to 5th, stayed pressing leader, challenged 15th until led 17th, went right 4 out, under pressure when mistake 2 out, joined last, kept on gamely to assert final 75yds (op 15-2 tchd 10-1)
« 2 2¼
#420
March 22nd, 2010 16:29
now doesnt that read like a typical g/national finish ? and he also went right in that one and is carrying about a stone less !! i think all my biscuits going on him this year !! think he will win by a short bread oops head lol
#421
March 22nd, 2010 16:32
It was encouraging for sure Mr Frisk, but personally I think he needs to find a lot more to win the big one. Those vetrans races are pretty soft (Darkness won it doing handstands last year if I remember rightly and then never got into it at Aintree) and I think against the younger boys, he may struggle
#422
March 22nd, 2010 16:59
Pablo, perhaps you could help me with a question, please.
Cast your mind back to the summer, if you will. You printed an article about four mile plus races and the number of runs needed. I might be mixed up here but was it 20+life runs they only need 3 runs to be fit and below that figure 5 runs that season?
#423
March 22nd, 2010 17:16
well in the race before that of 3m5 f he was carrying 3lbs more and to quote the racing post review he “romped home” as far as the younger horses go either they are to young or the ones that are right age have disappointed in the run up ? i have read all comments on here for weeks with much admiration ,but no one even mentioned MM till it did well in a race , not many stats held up !! maybe we have to admit the ppl who set the weights did an awsome job this year ??
#424
March 22nd, 2010 17:26
how many other horses that we have seen run recently can honestly be said to be in “the form of there lives” form is a major factor and there is only one i can see !!
#425
March 22nd, 2010 17:36
I count 13 horses with Irish N GN double entry…although 4 are below Flintoff(67) in GN weights so that does look like a min of 6 (above and inc Flintoff) less likely to run at Aintree…
#426
March 22nd, 2010 17:53
And one important site not many seem to use (The Met Office) 15-30 day forecast for NW inc. Liverpool and environs.. is more than average rainfall expected…
#427
March 22nd, 2010 18:01
Pablo since 1991 only 3 runners (one was Bobbyjo and in 1990 Desert Orchid did it on 12.00 so only the best of the best can do it)have won the Irish GN with 11.00 or more so I thnk you are correct about NM and SM (I really hope so)as I was the trainer/owner it would just not make sence when you can run in the GN with so much less weight. Anyway it looks hopeful – I really want them both to run as I think one will do the job on the day (unless HB has a really top day and has held something back).
#428
March 22nd, 2010 18:34
RP just put up…Albertas Run (not a big surprise) taken out of National…
#429
March 22nd, 2010 18:45
Enjoyed the last week’s posts folks. Just recovering from a long week at Cheltenham. It’s not the betting that is the main problem, it’s the 12 hours on the beer every day! Interested in SOP debate above. You can’t argue with the 49 days stat and I won’t. But the trainer knows that his horse must run fresh and so he was never going to run SOP to meet a stat! It may well cost him and in my own opinion, he is a place horse rather than win horse but there is nothing to argue about why he has not run. And good luck to you who like Eric’s Charm, I just think he has very little chance at all.
#430
March 22nd, 2010 19:59
Looking at the sporting life website for entries for the big day (Aintree) quite a few have sp against their names, this usually means that sporting life is expecting them not to run.
Taking these out and Albertas Run out the forty plus four currently stands at:
1 Madison Du Berlais 11-10 50/1
2 Our Vic 11-8 66/1
3 Mon Mome 11-7 12/1
4 Black Apalachi 11-6 14/1
5 Joe Lively 11-6 66/1
6 Vic Venturi 11-6 14/1
7 Comply Or Die 11-5 20/1
8 Made In Taipan 11-4 100/1
9 Niche Market 11-4 16/1
10 Tricky Trickster 11-4 14/1
11 Cloudy Lane 11-3 50/1
12 Dream Alliance 11-3 40/1
13 Nozic 11-3 66/1
14 Possol 11-3 40/1
15 My Will 11-2 33/1
16 Pablo Du Charmill 11-2 100/1
17 Backstage 11-0 16/1
18 Ballyholland 11-0 25/1
19 Beat The Boys 11-0 50/1
20 Roulez Cool 11-0 66/1
21 Le Beau Bai 10-13 66/1
22 Snowy Morning 10-13 20/1
23 Air Force One 10-12 50/1
24 Big Fella Thanks 10-12 8/1
25 Deutschland 10-12 80/1
26 Character Building 10-11 28/1
27 Chelsea Harbour 10-11 66/1
28 Dooneys Gate 10-11 66/1
29 Kornati Kid 10-11 100/1
30 State Of Play 10-11 20/1
31 Ellerslie George 10-10 66/1
32 Ballyfitz 10-9 66/1
33 Conna Castle 10-9 100/1
34 Equus Maximus 10-9 66/1
35 King Johns Castle 10-9 33/1
36 Ollie Magern 10-9 100/1
37 Arbor Supreme 10-8 20/1
38 Cane Brake 10-8 50/1
39 Lennon 10-8 150/1
40 Maljimar 10-8 33/1
and the four reserves at this moment are:
r1 New Alco 10-8 50/1
r2 Irish Raptor 10-7 40/1
r3 Mr Pointment 10-7 66/1
r4 Parsons Pistol 10-7 100/1
This is just my opinion on how I read the sporting life big race guide.
#431
March 22nd, 2010 20:13
No Erics Charm in your list?
#432
March 22nd, 2010 21:25
I know, the a SP against his name, which I am taking that they think he’ll get withdrawn, of course they could be wrong.
#433
March 22nd, 2010 21:51
Neil with Notre Pere just been a story on RP that says trainer has sussed why its been running so badly so been treated and giving it first serious piece of work this week and if not ready for Irish national they will run it in GN….one suspects it will need the extra 5 days and take its place in the GN…
#434
March 22nd, 2010 21:55
And…personal opinion/s but many diff reasons why, I cant see Our Vic. Possol, AFO , Deutchsland and New Alco (he has doubtful on the Racing Post card and they have taken it out of their betting lists) lining up….
#435
March 22nd, 2010 22:03
Thanks for that Nick, the official withdrawal stage is 23 March, interesting to see who comes out and who stays in.
#436
March 22nd, 2010 22:04
A small but important point that hopefully someone can answer….but all horses at the same weight are at the moment listed alphabetically….so if horse 40 (for arguements sake)is the first one on 10-7….leaving 5 others on the same weight missing out….do they shuffle them and promote the current best rated 10-7 horse in to that spot????? Surely it can’t just be alphabetical????
#437
March 22nd, 2010 22:08
Nick – I believe in that situation the handicapper ranks horses based on any form since the weights were announced and then comes up with the order.
New Alco has been confirmed as a non-runner
#438
March 22nd, 2010 22:11
Ok ty SS that pushes The Package up several places then and I am now v confident it will get in…
#439
March 22nd, 2010 22:14
I am not 100% sure but I think he’ll split them or rearrange them to how their current handicap mark is. If further splitting or rearranging needed that might be alphabetical.
#440
March 22nd, 2010 22:20
So if the cut falls on the 10-5 horses their current ratings order are Flintoff, Abbeybraney, Silver Birch, Cerium and Royal Rosa
If it is on 10-6 horses Palypso De Creek, Hello Bud and Trust Fund
If it goes as low as 10-4 its Knowhere, Whinstone Boy and Oodachee
#441
March 22nd, 2010 22:25
10-7 not as easy…Razor Royale but Mr Pointment, Piraya and The Package all the same, then Irish Raptor and Parsons Pistol
#442
March 22nd, 2010 22:43
crisp 73 nugget –
using original 30/30 stat – 5th. in Hen etc.(but using only top 2 in races over GN fences not counting GN )
Two parts to 30/30 stat -
A – 5th. Hennessy etc. 24/30
B – 3x24f (1x28f) 6/30
Horses who broke part ‘A’ of Hennessy stat, 6/30
80 Ben Nevis, American, won two Maryland Hunt Cups, 32f, most prestigious chase in USA, brought down in previous GN
84 Hallo Dandy, won at 28f, 4th in previous GN on unsuitable going
86 West Tip, unplaced in Welsh National, unplaced in RSA, won at 29f,won William Hill Trophy chase, fell at 2nd bechers in previous GN when going well
91 Seagram, won at 32f, unplaced in Hennessy, 3rd Racing Post chase, won William Hill Trophy chase
95 Royal Athlete, fell in void GN, Irish National, Hennessy, RSA, 3rd in Gold Cup, 4th in Racing Post chase, won at 28f
97 Lord Gyllene, 2nd in Midlands National, won at 34f
Only horses to break 30/30 stat(A&B) ‘top5 Hennessy etc’ in last 40 years.
78 Lucius, 3rd in Blue Square Gold Cup Haydock, won at 24f,
73 Red Rum, 4th in Blue Square, 5th in Scots Nat, won at 27f
71 Specify, 2nd in 21f Paddy Power Gold Cup, fell in Hennessy, fell at 2nd bechers when going well in previous GN, won at 24f
70 Gay Trip, won 21f Paddy Power Gold Cup, 4th in King George, 6th in Gold Cup, 2nd in RSA, won at 21f.
#443
March 22nd, 2010 23:26
Surely sp against Eric in sportlife list can’t signal he’s going to be withdrawn..they have New Alco as OK who actually IS withdrawn..
#444
March 22nd, 2010 23:35
Showlad, all I am saying is that’s how I view sporting life’s opinion. Guess we know by tomorrow or even Wednesday for the non runners to be filtered down to us waiting punters.
#445
March 22nd, 2010 23:38
This is a bit like Chinese whispers here. Someone has an opinion next its Gospel truth.
#446
March 22nd, 2010 23:53
Not Chinese whispering or saying the sp on sportlife is gospel for being withdrawn – cheeky.
Merely commenting. Can’t be right anyway as they’ve got Albertas Run quoted at 33s when he is a defo withdrawn.
Leighton Aspell due to ride Eric has a lacerated kidney (ouch! get better soon Leighton) so Oliver Sherwood is looking for a new jock. AP where are you…lol
#447
March 23rd, 2010 07:20
showlad you don’t want Tony on it, it’ll get carried out by two lose horses at bechers, lol!
#448
March 23rd, 2010 08:33
Neil – I made the same mistake myself before the first set of decs – there were a whole load of horses with SP next to them, who actually remained in!!
Im starting to worry that the weights will go up and that Snowy Morning will be saddled with 11_02!
#449
March 23rd, 2010 08:39
Yep, looking more and more likely MM will be top weight.
#450
March 23rd, 2010 09:42
Traded out of Cane Brake over the past day or so – got a feeling they might take him out today
#451
March 23rd, 2010 09:42
That’s a great shame about Leighton Aspell, he’s a very good jockey, hope he gets better soon.
#452
March 23rd, 2010 09:53
Pablo – I was lucky I did it at 45 or whatever it was
That said, the book isnt looking too healthy this year. Ive used a whole stack of free bets with different bookies to back Snowy Morning and Hello Bud though – looks like they will be my only two big winners this year.
Touch wood I havent lost any of the opening account bets yet either….ive put the mockers on it now!
#453
March 23rd, 2010 09:53
whatever happens with the weights i’m sticking with the trends until broken.
i know they could be any year and especially the weight trend with handicap compression etc.
my personal opinion ,that maybe the 11-1 could go this year but i don’t think the 11-5 will.
#454
March 23rd, 2010 09:53
Well he AP gave Eric his great lh win a coiuple of weeks ago..wouldn’t complain Neil, but the fact Leighton was on him of course means Tony already wasn’t, so..
!
Staying on Cane Brake and if he’s out I’ll just have to take it on chin Pablo.
Well last decs now before 5 day and 48 hours stages – v exciting
#455
March 23rd, 2010 09:55
GTL has been withdrawn from the market by Betfair…
apologies if that is old news, but I couldnt remember if it had been discussed.
#456
March 23rd, 2010 09:57
Yes for sure Andy – could see Niche or Dream being the limit of ‘weights’ winners this year..11-10 MM may be pushing it.
#457
March 23rd, 2010 10:06
not making mistake made last year, had shortlist of 7 or 8. backed 5 of them leaving out mon mome and backed state of play, who i think had 11-2 ?.but really fancy dream alliance who is 11-3 and now state of play is 10-11.
#458
March 23rd, 2010 10:08
OK Team. Phase 4 of our Fantastic TOP 6 TIPSTERS LEAGUE opens as soon as any of us get decs (yes when will that be – today, tomorrow, Thursday lol).
Phase 4 of course starts from scratch, as usual, afresh. Phase 4 table closes midnight on SATURDAY 27 MARCH.
To refresh our memories of our Table pre-Chelts – here it is:
TOP 6 TIPSTERS LEAGUE – PHASE 3 FINAL TABLE
PHASE 4 OPENS AFTER NEXT DECS STAGE ON MAR 23RD.
snowy morning 68
arbor supreme 45
hello bud 42
big fella thanks 24
character building 23
eric’s charm 20
state of play 19
war of attrition 18
dream alliance 17
niche market 15
ballyfitz 13
beat the boys 12
cane brake 11
black appalachi 9
comply or die 6
backstage 6
irish raptor 6
gone to lunch 5
maljimar 5
ollie magern 5
razor royale 4
casey jones 3
mon mome 3
can’t buy time 3
ellerslie george 3
king john’s castle 2
mr pointment 1
parsons pistol 1
chelsea harbour 1
trust fund 1
#459
March 23rd, 2010 10:09
That’s the million dollar question isnt it Andy – do you back all the stats horses, including the ones you cant fancy at all, or do you back the stats horses you fancy and then a couple of others that go against the stats, but that you fancy anyway?!
I did a mixture of both last year – backing stats horses Darkness and Cornish Sett, who I didnt really fancy, and not backing Mon Mome and Southern Vic, who i REALLY didnt fancy, and backing State of Play and Butlers Cabin who missed a key stat, but that I fancied anyway.
What to do this year?!
#460
March 23rd, 2010 10:12
might back all 40!
#461
March 23rd, 2010 10:16
Showlad- don’t throw anymore horses at me i confused enough!
#462
March 23rd, 2010 10:21
Andy, hopefully you’d have the winner then!! Lol.
#463
March 23rd, 2010 10:25
Only if he backs the reserves too!! Just in case
#464
March 23rd, 2010 10:30
Ha ha Andy.
Will be very interesting today.
Many interesting moves..
Cane interesting..in and out all week.
Le Beau I think will stay in despite some drifts..team keen on Aintree and I think isn’t an owner Aintree chairman or something…?..or is he injured..
Parson’s Pistol dark horse..no word of late..will he pull..?
Arbor..could blog be reeling with a shock withdrawal..
Many mysteries as I sit tellin’ me story at me camp fire.. Now there were many horses and one day along came a decs stage..and..then there were 62 left..ha, ha!
#465
March 23rd, 2010 10:34
Are we all thinking that the announcment will be delayed until tomorrow again, as with the last 2 stages?
#466
March 23rd, 2010 10:37
Beat the boys,apart from PU 27 times at the side of his name. can anyone rule that out for me?
meets 17/18 trends.
#467
March 23rd, 2010 10:42
And don’t mention Darkness and Cornish Sett last year, lost too much on them!
#468
March 23rd, 2010 10:43
think i’m just gonna ask my wife to pick me one out and be done with it!
#469
March 23rd, 2010 10:44
Andy – Beat The Boys has never completed a race beyond 28f. The only good run I can see on his record even at this distance was 2 and a half years ago at Cheltenham, and he finished very tired that day.
I couldnt say with 100% confidence he wont stay, but I would say there’s probably an odds on chance that he wont even complete the course, especially given all those PUs in his form, as you point to.
Note though, I think in his last 7 races (off the top of my head) he has either won or PU!!
If he lined up at 100/1, I guess it would be foolish not to have a couple of quid though – im on at around 150 on Betfair, but will be looking to lay it off if and when the price comes down.
#470
March 23rd, 2010 10:45
don’t mention darkness, had him last year…they’ve entered him this year because he’s still going round from last year!
#471
March 23rd, 2010 10:47
daniel
that’s why i can’t seem to rule him out,he’s either won or PU.
#472
March 23rd, 2010 10:50
Would suggest we wait and see for a while yet Andy – given all those PUs, connections might decide to not run him. His price has only got steadily bigger over the past couple of months too, so best to wait and see for now. If he’s in the final 40 on race day and the weights dont go up (remember, he has 11 stone already) he might be worth a saver, but not before, in my view.
#473
March 23rd, 2010 10:54
Daniel
regarding the 28f stat. I use must have won over at least 25f and placed over at least 27f.
think it’s a 17/19 stat, just to get the list down a bit.
#474
March 23rd, 2010 10:57
Beat The Boys a defo dark horse – could go one way or another. PUs often blamed on ground, likes good, tho last run a dissapointment. Within last 15 months 2 wins at 24 f (inc a class 1) and a 3rd over 28f.
Cannot be dismissed and this one really is down to one’s own perecption of how this complex cookie will crumble on the day..
#475
March 23rd, 2010 11:01
Andy – I wasnt looking at his form from a stats point of view, just what I thought the bare form suggested he might manage as to a maximum trip.
He is an intriguing one though, for sure!
#476
March 23rd, 2010 11:03
l’aventure retired, won me many a few quid!
#477
March 23rd, 2010 11:04
I think there’s also an argument to be made for BTB doing all of his best running at the start of the season.
Plus of course he has gone up 20lb in the weights already this season.
#478
March 23rd, 2010 11:04
Andy if your not sure ans overwelmed by stats/trends etc (including me at times then wait for the week of the race when you will get “no run money back” and the “team” should have it down to four good prospects!
If the weights go up 3lbs then I am sure we are looking again at a winner at 11.02 or less (bye bye NM and proably DA as well – teach them to do so well earlier on!)
Come on people we Can do it!
I’am bringing out the Systemsman’s “BLack Book final check system” after declarations to help the team (really best used in the week of the race or as close to the off as possible)- we need all the help we can get.
#479
March 23rd, 2010 11:11
Ah, but what do we do when the site crashes!!
; )
#480
March 23rd, 2010 11:24
Jackie
that’ll be my fault, i’m jinxed.
my pc does’nt crash, it falls same as my horses!
#481
March 23rd, 2010 11:50
Nothing filtering through on RP site yet. Dan E: they have had GTL as ‘doubtful’ on the main RP card for several days now and also took him out of their betting list (ie using RP to bet with their partners) at the same time…which has also been the case with WOA though that was a talking horse 3-4 weeks ago on here that has dropped to silence anyhow…
#482
March 23rd, 2010 11:55
And before any old jokes about talking horses (you need to be of a certaon age to get the reference…) then Mr Ed actually ran twice in the National in the mid 90′s best run was when BD by The Fellow at second canal when close enough to maybe run in to a place in Minnehommas year…yawn…..!!
#483
March 23rd, 2010 12:01
And becasue am really reallty bored and have put his lang into more adult terms my younger brother (when about 6 or 7) said ‘Am not surprised that Bar Leaves never wins…it must be sh*gged out running in every race…’ You can’t make em up…
#484
March 23rd, 2010 12:05
And those ‘worrying’ about weight rises:
Notre P’s trainer said they have sussed and treated why been running so poorly so will give it some serious work over next week or so but if not ready for Irish N (I dont think it will be..) then we will def. run him at Aintree…
#485
March 23rd, 2010 12:18
Just looked at the ATR site to look at Snowy Morning’s form, according to them his next race is on April 5th in the Irish Nash. Aintree a no go for him then (or is that old news?!!)
#486
March 23rd, 2010 12:22
It can’t be true; please tell me it’s not true……
#487
March 23rd, 2010 12:25
Matriarch: I stress this is only my view but I can see why owners put an entry in AFTER the GN (ScotNat or Bet365) as an alternative but to put them in a race BEFORE must surely point to that being the pref…
Have no view at the min on SM but the Irish Nat entry sends out signals of the 8 (inc and above Flintoff) in the GN list that are in the IN will run there instead or at least 6 of the 8 will at a conservative estimate..
#488
March 23rd, 2010 12:28
Snowy morning
on sporting life, he’s only entered for grand national.not irish!
#489
March 23rd, 2010 12:34
Andy, I’m just going by what I saw on the ATR website. I clicked for SM’s form and it states his next race as April 5th, Fairyhouse. Just think it’s a bit strange. I’m not saying its gospel, just what I saw on ATR!
#490
March 23rd, 2010 12:40
Matriarch
yes mate,understand. i’m just saying what’s on sporting life.
#491
March 23rd, 2010 12:46
Andy no probs! I hope I’m wrong and have not scared too many people! Just thought I’d share what I’ve seen tho!! I know some people (from what I’ve read)are tired of their AP bets going by the way side!
#492
March 23rd, 2010 12:47
think gonna have to wait until tomorrow to find out who’s still in.
they sure do take their time!
#493
March 23rd, 2010 12:52
WHY o’ why did I get my hopes up for today, when I knew full well it would be tomorrow!! Just like on weights day…and just like at the first forfeit stage!?!?!?!
#494
March 23rd, 2010 13:02
Totesport have withdrawn several likely looking NR from their betting, they were first to withdraw Garde Champetre 24hrs before the news broke last year so they probably have had the list already.
Obviously this is not offiial but all below look very unlikely now:
WOA, Albertas run, Possol, Iris De Balme, New Alco, Roulez Cool, Le Beau Bai, Cane Brake, Our Vic, Trust fund, Kornati Kid, Seven is my Number, Sizing Aus, Trabolgan, Parsons Pistol, Louping, Mumbles Head, Boychuk
No total shocks there and less than I would have thought.
#495
March 23rd, 2010 13:06
Re Snowy Morning/Arbor Irish National debate, I wouldn’t be too worried yet as Willie has entered every staying chaser at his yard for the Irish National 14 in total He likes to keep his options wide open, but should the ground come up perfect for Arbor I wouldn’t past him to switch the horse he’s not the most reliable trainer when it comes to Ante Post betting just ask the poor sods counting their loses on Mikael D’Haugent at Cheltenham.
#496
March 23rd, 2010 13:23
If that is right Brody, then number 40 is Arbor Supreme, with Hello Bud down at 48!!!
*gulp
#497
March 23rd, 2010 13:24
Although if GTL is out as well, they shuffle up one, leaving either Lennon or Maljimar at 40 and Hello Bud at 47.
#498
March 23rd, 2010 13:25
Which would mean the top 6 on my points table within the top 45 (allowing for a couple of late withdrawls) as;
Snowy Morning
Ellerslie George
Beat The Boys
Vic Venturi
Madison Du Berlais
Air Force One
I do hope you’re wrong!!
#499
March 23rd, 2010 13:58
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/10/03/23/manual_134757.html
The full list of horses taken out of the race is:
Albertas Run, Taranis, Our Vic, Casey Jones, Possol, War Of Attrition, Roulez Cool, Le Beau Bai, Seven Is My Number, Louping D’Ainay, Gone To Lunch, Kornati Kid, Follow The Plan, Cane Brake, New Alco, Parsons Pistol, Iris De Balme, Trust Fund, Coe, Mumbles Head. Sizing Australia, Trabolgan, Boychuk.
#500
March 23rd, 2010 14:03
As far as Snowy Morning goes, every single quote I have read from Mullins, including in his Sunday column in the RP has spoke of Snowy being aimed at the Grand National. I’d ignore any red herrings on the Irish National. Slightly surprised that WOA may be a non-runner given his self-interested, self-publicist owner. For the record, I had a small wager on WOA on betfair. As you say Brody, the Tote were quick and spot on last year. Seems Hello Bud getting in is the main worry for quite a few folks on here.
#501
March 23rd, 2010 14:06
From sportinglife.com
The full list of horses taken out of the race is:
Albertas Run, Taranis, Our Vic, Casey Jones, Possol, War Of Attrition, Roulez Cool, Le Beau Bai, Seven Is My Number, Louping D’Ainay, Gone To Lunch, Kornati Kid, Follow The Plan, Cane Brake, New Alco, Parsons Pistol, Iris De Balme, Trust Fund, Coe, Mumbles Head. Sizing Australia, Trabolgan, Boychuk.
#502
March 23rd, 2010 14:07
From same article:
Mon Mome heads 75 entries left in the John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree.
A 100/1 winner last year, he warmed-up for the 2010 renewal by finishing third in the totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup.
No less than 63 of the remaining horses – a remarkable 84 per cent – are still in the handicap proper and with a maximum field size of 40, a weight of at least 10st 7lb currently needed to make the final line up.
The John Smith’s Grand National, this year carrying a record £925,000 in prize money, is one race still to elude champion trainer Paul Nicholls but he has four chances of adding the world’s most famous chase to his CV next month. Big Fella Thanks, winner of a Grade Three handicap chase at Newbury earlier this month, is currently totesport’s 8/1 favourite for the John Smith’s Grand National, and Tricky Trickster, who was unplaced in the totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup after winning the Grade Two Aon Chase on his previous start, are among Nicholls’ leading hopes.
Six of the last 11 John Smith’s Grand National winners were trained in Ireland and there are 25 contenders who could add to that record in 2010 including Vic Venturi, winner of the totesport.com Becher Chase at Aintree in November, and Black Apalachi, who landed the same race in 2008. Both represent Curragh trainer Dessie Hughes.
The 2007 John Smith’s Grand National winner Silver Birch needs 11 horses to come out of the race to be guaranteed a run while Comply Or Die, successful in the 2008 renewal and runner-up in 2009, is certain of a place in this year’s line-up.
Other leading contenders include The Package, who was a fast-finishing second in the William Hill Trophy Chase at Cheltenham last week, Welsh National hero Dream Alliance and 2009 Irish Grand National winner Niche Market, who will bid to give trainer Bob Buckler his biggest success at Aintree on Saturday, April 10.
#503
March 23rd, 2010 14:07
I’m sure I read Charlie Mann say somewhere that AFO won’t be going for the GN, hardly blame them after all his recent falls and UR’s, I’d also be surprised if Pipe didn’t switch Madison to the aintree Bowl or similar race again.
#504
March 23rd, 2010 14:14
I am fancying Chief Dan George.The horse finished fifth in the Scottish National last year and he also won in the William Hill trophy at the Cheltenham Festival last week, so its looking good.
#505
March 23rd, 2010 14:18
Afternoon all;
Does anyone have the info to hand about how many horses came out between 2nd forfeit and race day for the 2009 edition? Might help to assess where the cutoff will be.
I have a feeling it wasn’t that many, but could be wrong…
#506
March 23rd, 2010 14:32
Shame about Cane Brake I had a resonable bet on him as so many put him forward but never felt sure myself. So another one bites the dust but to make up for it it appears I dont have to worry about Trabolgan and Boychuk all of whom have been mentined by some. Obviously I have also lost GTL but that was no surprise. Still the anti-post costing me a bit this year so I just hope AS does run and HB gets in (I think he will).
#507
March 23rd, 2010 14:37
That’s more like it!!
Hello Bud at number 44 and should sneak in from there.
Anybody below 10_05 must now be a no-go and those on 10_05 are going to have a nervous wait.
Will post the points update shortly.
#508
March 23rd, 2010 14:45
Where’s the list Dan? Rp just says 75 left in…
#509
March 23rd, 2010 14:52
Ah got it the card has been updated.
Just to say 7 of top now 49 also in the Irish Nat. and of the 2 10-6 horses Dan, Hello Bud has the worse current rating so would flip down one as ahead of Palypso on alphabetical order only (see my earlier post on the current orders of same weighted horses).
I think The Package is now in so thats helped with my top 6….more to follow….!!
#510
March 23rd, 2010 14:58
Just by way of refresher;
12/13 winners (RM being the usual exception to the rule!) were in the top 6 on the points system on race day AND all scored 6.35 minimum.
The top 6 at the moment are;
Snowy Morning — 7.58 (Perfect Score)
Ellerslie George – 7.08
Chief Dan George – 6.58
Hello Bud ——– 6.45
Beat The Boys —- 6.38
Vic Venturi —— 6.23
Madison Du Berlais – 6.13
The astute amongst you will notice that there are 7 horses listed there – CDG wont get in bar a miracle.
Interestingly 3 of those 6 have what plenty of people would regard as ‘too much weight.’
If you go a little further back, 14/17 scored 6.35 or more AND were in the top 6.
The 3 exceptions are;
2001 – RM – 4.40
1996 – Rough Quest – 5.18
1994 – Minnehoma — 5.55
So, for the sake of completeness, thos between 5.00 and Madison Du Berlais are;
Air Force One 6.05
Arbor Supreme 6.05
Eric’s Charm 6.05
Ollie Magern 5.85
Dream Alliance 5.83
Notre Pere 5.73
Mon Mome 5.63
My Will 5.63
Joe Lively 5.60
Ballyiftz 5.58
Chelsea Harbour 5.53
Silver Birch 5.45
Dont Push It 5.43
Cloudy Lane 5.28
Niche Market 5.23
Black Apalachi 5.20
Character Building 5.18
Razor Royale 5.05
So, on this system, VV and MDB have more of a chance of those on the high weights than Dream Alliance, Niche Market, and others.
#511
March 23rd, 2010 15:01
Nick – I think The Package being one of the 10’07 horses is tied with 4 others for the 40th and final place (assuming no more withdrawals), so would not be assured of the place as would depend on the current ORs of the 5 horses at noon on the Thursday preceeding the race when the line up will be finalised.
Looking back at my lists from 2009 it appears that only one horse came out after the 2nd forfeit stage – surely this is wrong – can anyone confirm? Would place the participation of The Package and Hello Bud in serious doubt…
#512
March 23rd, 2010 15:02
My top 6, to get us under way;
Snowy Morning 6 points
Hello Bud 5 pts
Arbor Supreme 4pts
Erics Charm 3 pts
Vic Venturi 2pts
Beat The Boys 1pt
#513
March 23rd, 2010 15:10
Gammers – I know Character Building came out in the days before the race.
#514
March 23rd, 2010 15:11
Gammers: Last night I listed the 10-7, 10-6, 10-5 and 10-4 horses by their current (as of yesterday) rating. I am not sure if Phil S. sits down and looks again but surely, if he does, he has to take the Chelt run of The P and put him in. It isnt quite personal but if Mr Pointment misses out I for one will be chuffed!!
Surely with 7 of top 49 being in Irish Nat and there only being 5 days between then shall we say 3 at worse/5 at best will run in Ireland and scratch GN??
Also forecast is for a wet 3 weeks up this end (aye trubble at mill la…) so ground might take 1 or 2 more out…
Taking a view I would go for 48th with proviso of shuffle for same weighted on that mark.
#515
March 23rd, 2010 15:33
Agree, I think based on runs to date The Package will be top of those on 11’07 (we’ll be able to tell when the ORs are published tomorrow including updates for Cheltenham runs), but nothing to stop one of the others realising this and getting a sneaky extra prep run in.
But in liklihood, agree, The Package gets in. I’d still have reservations about Hello Bud; which is annoying given what a good stats horse it is!
All fun and games.
#516
March 23rd, 2010 15:33
OK here we go
Big Fella Thanks 6pts
Erics Charm 5pts
The Package 4pts
Backstage 3pts
Maljimar 2pts
Mon Mome 1pt
I will only back 4 of the aboveand if The P doesnt make the cut then King Johns Castle is my next best.
BFT: To me thrown in at weights and has won on soft (Sky Bet 09) and has a touch of class.
EC: Old school current form pick.
The P : Again old school progressive type but v big doubt re age.
Backs : Noted a real staying on 8th in last yrs Foxhunters (old school past Aintree experience!!) and has v good P to P form on heavy.
Maljimar : 09 2nd in William Hill. Staying on 3rd in Dec 09 Cross C at chelt (31f+). Light campaign and aimed at this. Worry is no run since Dec.
MM: I thought the GC third is thrown in (any other handicap) but we all know the weight stats for GN. Has the Aintree factor and can see it placing if one of top 2 stays in.
More then welcome to be told why many/some/none/all of the above are ‘not worthy’ but I will say this is my 41st ‘betting national’ and am still more comfortable with my ‘old school’ approach but that doesnt mean I dont/haven’t appreciated all your fantastic stats/trends and brilliant info. Some who havent made my top 6 were left out due to my observational trends (lets not go down the same season Welsh Nat debate again eh? lol) and it has been a real pleasure to find other obsessives re GN like me!!
Just to add since 1969 have only had 3 winners but 26 seconds andonly 1 year (Red M’s) with nothing placed. From 69-76 backed 2 horses. 77-89 3 horses and 90 to now 4 and since 05 I count 5th as placed as thats what my bookie has offered.
Cheers all…
#517
March 23rd, 2010 15:46
Im sticking with my guns and putting my neck on the block – HELLO BUD WILL GET IN
Plus of course, Bet365 are non-runner no bet, so get the 40s now, cos it wont be there on race day!
#518
March 23rd, 2010 15:51
There must be something wrong. Article says Mon Mome heads list but no mention of Madison or Notre Pere being withdrawn. Have I missed something????
#519
March 23rd, 2010 15:53
Hope so for you Dan. I will still say down to 48th (shuffle for same weights on 48th mark proviso)and think HB will run for sure.
It came in to my old school cant see anything in recent form to encourage me (HB and about 20 others!!) and dismissing those with IGN entry (cant see the GN as an afterthought approach paying dividends) but accept your stats/trends view.
#520
March 23rd, 2010 15:55
Mark: I think it ‘heads’ as in the big name eyecatcher esp re the GC third. MDB and NP still in.
#521
March 23rd, 2010 16:00
I dont think for a second a horse entered in both has Aintree as an ‘afterthought’ – its just a case of trainers (and owners) giving themselves options….What happens if it now rains non stop for the next two weeks at Aintree, but not over at Fairyhouse. Fast ground horses have protected themselves, and soft ground horses would be entered at Aintree and bypass Fairyhouse, when the IN might otherwise have been the preferred route.
#522
March 23rd, 2010 16:01
Quick Nick – before Showlad shouts at you, update the table after your top 6!!
#523
March 23rd, 2010 16:07
Lol theres only mine and yours so far post these decs and only Erics Charm on both so he has to be ahead!!!
#524
March 23rd, 2010 16:07
6 pts Arbor Supreme (everything primed for a big run – looks likely to stay with Busted in the bloodline)
5 pts Big Fella Thanks (no price but has improved and has now shown both speed and stamina)
4 pts Snowy Morning (jumping has improved and looks to have every chance – will he actually win though?)
3 pts Mon Mome (handicapper has been lenient, better-treated than recent winners, good recent form)
2 pts Chelsea Harbour (with soft in the description he can run a big race – fresher than he’s been during quieter season than normal due to injury – will be watching him closely on Saturday – ran a really big race in 2008 on ground faster than ideal – 200+ on Betfair is all the value I need)
1 pt The Package (progressive horse – another in form – worried about age but trained by those trend-busting Pipes)
Overall including Daniel’s and Nick’s scores:
11 Big Fella Thanks (cue Thommo…)
10 Arbor Supreme
8 Snowy Morning
8 Eric’s Charm
5 The Package
5 Hello Bud
4 Mon Mome
3 Backstage
2 Chelsea Harbour
2 Maljimar
2 Vic Venturi
1 Beat The Boys
#525
March 23rd, 2010 16:10
UPDATE:
Erics Charm 8pts
Big Fella Thanks 6
Snowy Morn. 6
Hello Bud 5
Arbor S. 4
The Package 4
Backstage 3
Vic Vent. 2
Maljimar 2
Mon Mome 1
Beat The Boys 1
#526
March 23rd, 2010 16:12
Ta Pablo for stealing my thunder/update!!
#527
March 23rd, 2010 16:16
Sorry Nick – I thought I was doing you a favour!
#528
March 23rd, 2010 16:21
No its cool and as with Dans list (although the lightweight hasn’t given us his reasons yet!!) am v interested in yours and as to why…
I put mine up and will stick with it as a (very) old school approach!!
#529
March 23rd, 2010 16:24
Continued from previous…
STRIKE RATE
‘If we can play like that every week we’ll get some level of consistency.’ (Alex Ferguson)
It’s not how well you do something, it’s how often you do it that ultimately matters, states The Rascal (sagely). Or, as his mother put it, “Why don’t you do anything?”
No matter what our walk in life we’ve all had our days of glory. The paper aeroplane anecdote is just one of those that The Rascal has enjoyed. And yet he has not gone on to be a professional paper-thrower, competing at the highest level against the Japanese. No, in fact the chances are his next effort and further efforts would undermine the level of his previous achievement until he’s a one hit wonder like Chesney Hawkes. You can see why he’s never ventured back to the sport when running the risk of such a benign consequence.
Our great sporting heroes have consistently continued to impress – there’s no one and only moments for sporting legends and it is only apt that the same is true of Grand National winners. In chase outings none of the last nineteen winners had a strike rate (that’s a top three place in a chase) of less than 40%.
The Rascal doesn’t want to urge anyone to back a horse in the greatest race in the calendar year that might or might not perform on the day. The Grand National is not a lottery, it is a great sporting occasion from which great horses have imprinted their names in the hearts of the nation. If you want to treasure April 10th 2010 until the day you die because you were on the winner, or nurse the wounds of a cruel second or third place until your story is so embellished you’re prouder of it than you might have been by picking first, then it makes sense to side with a horse that is competent and consistent.
Falling short of the 40% strike rate threshold are BLACK APALACHI, NICHE MARKET, PREISTS LEAP, CHELSEA HARBOUR, OLLIE MAGERN, HELLO BUD and KNOWHERE. It may seem contrite to dismiss a former Becher Chase winner and last year’s Irish National champion with such brutal assumption but there are deeper waters running under the currents of these trends and when The Rascal comes to giving individual appraisals on the final forty your reservations may be appeased.
The Rascal’s field is down to 19. Eleven winners from eighteen Grand Nationals is, in The Rascal’s eyes, consistent so please persevere with his savageness until the final resolution…
#530
March 23rd, 2010 16:27
Lightweight!!
I only didnt put them up because I thought I had bored everybody to death with them already!!
In brief;
SM – Classy animal, weighted to go very close on the basis of the last two runnings.
HB – wonderfully well handicapped (if you run a form line through GTL to Niche Market and on to others) Will stay longer than the mother in law and should come good in the spring, especially if we get good ground.
AS – typical ‘flying under the radar’ irish sort. Looks to have improvement in him, again weighted well and looks as though he will stay every yard and more.
Eric’s Charm – a stats pick if im honest!
Vic Venturi – Won the Becher and Bobbyjo this season – yes I know Black Apalachi did the same last year and didnt follow up, but he didnt get his ground. VV has everything else going for him and I prefer him to all the others above the 11 stone mark.
Beat The Boys – Just because I have a horrible feeling about this one, I put him in! It could easily have been Character Building, or Mr Pointment. Or even Air Force One.
Those obviously dont include my doubts about each one!
#531
March 23rd, 2010 16:32
Cheers Dan and never bored by this and we have all revised our views since the weights/Chelt etc etc.
The thing that grabs me is EC (not the ersatz blues guitarist…Peter Green the only real deal…!) we both had him but for totally diff. reasons!
#532
March 23rd, 2010 16:35
Of the ones currently in the top 40 my opinion is all the following are quite likely to drop out and then you have to add in setbacks in training Irish Nat. defections to that so I think Hello Bud is definitely going to get in and more below could also squeeze in, looks a tough ask for Whinstone and Chief Dan George though:
1 1-3244 Madison Du Berlais42 9 11-10 D E Pipe 158 157 166
2 1F544U Notre Pere49 9 11-10 J T R Dreaper 158 129 157
9 U2474P Made In Taipan23 8 11-4 Thomas Mullins 152 159 168
23 6-P3UF Air Force One24 8 10-12 C J Mann 146 138 151
25 -41230 Deutschland24 7 10-12 W P Mullins 146 137 160
28 -301F2 Dooneys Gate35 9 10-11 W P Mullins 145 157 165
#533
March 23rd, 2010 16:38
Nick – mine’s pretty old school really
Class – all 6 have been placed in (or won) a major big-field Class 1 handicap (GN, Thyestes, RP Chase, William Hill)
Trip – 4/6 have placed (or won) over 28f or more – Big Fella Thanks 6th in GN last year as 7-y-o, The Package won 26f at Cheltenham (the farthest he’s raced)
Prep – all have had a least 4 runs this season (exceptions the 8-y-os BFT & AS who possibly don’t need as much getting fit) – all have had a run within 6 weeks of the National
Form – all have shown good form this season (exception Chelsea Harbour but he’s a big price)
#534
March 23rd, 2010 16:44
I agree with you Pablo that Chelsea Harbour is one to reconsider…if AND ONLY IF the ground is bottomless though, in my view.
#535
March 23rd, 2010 17:22
I don’t read into as much stats as most of you guys but I have picked 7 of the last 11 winners! Anyway heres my 6 based on a shorter stats list, a gut feeling and a bit of sentimentality!!!
6 Snowy Morning….stats
5 Black Appalachi…my local horse plus I think even with the weight he’s going to run a huge race
4 State of Play…herselfs cousins husband will be onboard (Paul Moloney) but he also hits my stats!!!!
3 Erics Charm….form horse
2 Niche Market…..Irish National winner…a good omen.
1 Ellerslie George…a hunch.
There’s my less than technical appraisal, I’m sure some of the serious stats men will be appauled!!!!
#536
March 23rd, 2010 17:26
14 Snowy Morning
11 Big Fella Thanks
11 Erics Charm
10 Arbor Supreme
5 The Package
5 Hello Bud
5 Black Appalachi
4 Mon Mome
4 State of Play
3 Backstage
2 Chelsea Harbour
2 Maljimar
2 Vic Venturi
2 Niche Market
1 Beat The Boys
1 Ellerslie George
#537
March 23rd, 2010 17:39
Can I be cheeky and ask updaters to put after the horse how many lists it has been on??
14 Snowy Morning (3 out of 4)
11 Big Fella Thanks (2/4)
11 Erics Charm (3/4)
10 Arbor Supreme (2/4)
5 The Package (2/4)
5 Hello Bud (1/4)
5 Black Appalachi (1/4)
4 Mon Mome (2/4)
4 State of Play (1/4)
3 Backstage (1/4)
2 Chelsea Harbour (1/4)
2 Maljimar (1/4)
2 Vic Venturi (1/4)
2 Niche Market (1/4)
1 Beat The Boys (1/4)
1 Ellerslie George (1/4)
#538
March 23rd, 2010 17:53
RECENT FORM
“Greatness is not in where we stand, but in what direction we are moving. We must sail sometimes with the wind and sometimes against it — but sail we must and not drift, nor lie at anchor.” (Oliver Wendell Holmes)
All our remaining contenders have met the earlier requirement of having placed in the top three in at least one of their season starts but this is not enough for The Rascal.
It is no good to set yourself ablaze at home and run into town to show the world how immortal you are only to burn yourself to cinders at the bottom of the garden and embarrassingly have to call your mum to come and take you to the hospital. No, this is not an anecdote, before you ask!
Grand National winners, at least the last twenty, have all achieved at least one of those top three places in at least one of their last three starts.
Monumental achievements require momentum, preparation requires peaking at the right time and our remaining hopefuls (in The Rascal’s view) require that all important place. This solid trend is enough to render the chances of NOTRE PERE, CLOUDY LANE, MY WILL and EQUUS MAXIMUS implausible.
These four leave The Rascal’s swiftly crumbling list but joining them is the previously fancied BEAT THE BOYS. The last twenty winners have all managed to complete in at least one of their previous two runs (i.e. not pulled up, unseated or fallen in both) but BEAT THE BOYS’ disappointing show at Cheltenham sees him fall from The Rascal’s favour here despite his November win having pulled up twice since.
The Rascal’s Grand National selection will emerge from the one of the final fourteen:
MADISON DU BERLAIS
MON MOME
JOE LIVELY
VIC VENTURI
DON’T PUSH IT
DREAM ALLIANCE
CAN’T BUY TIME
SNOWY MORNING
AIR FORCE ONE
BIG FELLA THANKS
ELLERSLIE GEORGE
ERIC’S CHARM
ARBOR SUPREME
RAZOR ROYALE
You are but a few steps away from The Rascal’s solution to this year’s conundrum. Speaking of which, in the last twenty years, the last letter of the winning horse’s name has never been a vowel for more than two consecutive years – the trend is (C=consonant, V=vowel) C-C-C-C-V-V-C-V-C-V-C-C-V-C-V-C-V-C-V-V. This would leave us with MADISON DU BERLAIS, JOE LIVELY, DON’T PUSH IT, SNOWY MORNING, BIG FELLA THANKS and ERIC’S CHARM.
Haha, don’t worry, there’ll be no lame climax to this analysis but it may be worth bearing in mind for those with other-worldly ways of narrowing the field. The Rascal has a better method…
#539
March 23rd, 2010 18:01
Stat – 18/19 past GN winners had 4-7 prep runs. A stat which most of us were very keen on the last few years.
This year we have 18 horses out of the top 45 with less than 4 prep runs and 11 of these are in the top 21 in the betting – including the Fav, 3rd. and 4th. Fav.
#540
March 23rd, 2010 18:17
Daniel many thanks for your list, its amazing but my “Black Book” ratings (you wouldnt even get the rules if your torture me – not even with water torture!!)are not too far off the first 11 (excluding a few heavy weights ofcourse).
Will post soon when I have time to asess all the key runners and review them in my head! Probably tomorrow evening – I dont want to rush to at this important stage.
#541
March 23rd, 2010 19:33
Seems an old gits (me ) ‘moaning’ might pay off…as Phil S gone in to print (in RP) saying he would raise several of the field since the weights (Chief Dan George being the key example) hence giving a far truer final field…and hopefully hinting that they may change the rules to allow penalties (small) for good runs after weights…Please please please…have been saying this for years!!!
#542
March 23rd, 2010 19:42
6 points Dream Alliance – trend breaker on the weight? Stays forever.
5 points Arbour Supreme – seems well in to me
4 points Ellerslie George – trip the only worry
3 Points Hello Bud – ground and recent form a worry but stays forever
2 points Razor Royale – well in but will it stay?
1 point Snowy Morning – wouldn’t want to miss out now would I?
15 Arbor Supreme (3/4)
15 Snowy Morning (4/5)
11 Big Fella Thanks (2/4)
11 Erics Charm (3/4)
8 Hello Bud (2/4)
6 Dream Alliance (1/4)
5 The Package (2/4)
5 Ellerslie George (2/4)
5 Black Appalachi (1/4)
4 Mon Mome (2/4)
4 State of Play (1/4)
3 Backstage (1/4)
2 Chelsea Harbour (1/4)
2 Maljimar (1/4)
2 Vic Venturi (1/4)
2 Niche Market (1/4)
2 Razor Royale (1/4)
1 Beat The Boys (1/4)
#543
March 23rd, 2010 19:49
CHELTENHAM
“It is not the critic who counts, not the man who points out how the strong man stumbled, or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes short again and again, who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, and spends himself in a worthy cause, who at best knows achievement and who at the worst if he fails at least fails while daring greatly so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat.” (Theodore Roosevelt)
Now The Rascal will suffer from those that withstand the mechanic of discounting horses who have raced in the Cheltenham Festival – the argument being that in such a competitive festival the recuperation period required is not enough to do the business at Aintree a few weeks later.
The quote is above is an inspiring one and it speaks of sweat and tears. The Rascal has not jumped into selecting his Grand National tip at the eleventh hour, thinking he must needs make a show of being all-knowing. His loved ones will attest to the fact that he devotes a huge percentage of, not just time, but care to getting this right. The cut and thrust of this latest guide is merely a sideshow to some pretty brutal disappointments over the last few months and a short aside to the dastardly riddle The Rascal has tried to solve amidst the pressure of appeasing last year’s disappointments.
The snow fell, and did it fall, and BIG FELLA THANKS fell at Kempton too! The snow froze and so did The Rascal’s resolve when DREAM ALLIANCE got stung with 11 stone 3 pounds by the handicapper and went on to drag his heels at Haydock. The more work The Rascal put in the further the answer to ‘ Who will win the Grand National, Rascal?’ seemed to get.
The Rascal is talking sleepless nights and half-written stuff being screwed up and thrown in the bin, the clichés of frustration in one of the most torturous routes to finding a winner he can remember. The price of failure is taken personally and with much apology, The Rascal doesn’t count it in his own coins but in those of his friends and family who listen.
For himself, The Rascal can deliberate and understand his mistakes pretty quickly – he certainly did last year – but it is still gutting when, after pumping your heart into something you care about, the blood just ends up as a bright red flush on your cheeks. The Rascal still has a proud and stubborn history in this race – only 2000 and 2009 have disappointed him to the point of abject misery. Now is the time to step up and get it right again – over the years anyone who has followed The Rascal would have been in handsome profit in this race and yet reputations stand and fall very quickly.
But, yes, for those that observe with a critical eye, The Rascal is eliminating MON MOME, JOE LIVELY, DON’T PUSH IT and RAZOR ROYALE because they ran in the Cheltenham Festival. There are other reasons too, of course – this isn’t a grotesque horror movie where protagonists get slashed big time for daring to step into a separate room from their comrades.
The Rascal, though, is cutting to the chase in this guide and here’s the two bare bones of why – no horse in the last twenty renewals has raced in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and gone on to win the Grand National (MON MOME, who has clearly earned his status as a great Grand National winner, still carries too much weight in the National with or without the Gold Cup and so it must be seen as a negative in such a potent field at Aintree). Secondly, if any horse that raced at Cheltenham is to win the Grand National this year there were others, already eliminated, that showed plenty more capacity than JOE LIVELY, DON’T PUSH IT or RAZOR ROYALE.
The Rascal will be so bold as to say that Cheltenham 2010, an awesome spectacle in itself this year, closed more doors than it opened as far as Aintree 2010 is concerned.
With further audacity The Rascal can say this – on the night of Monday 22nd April 2010 he could not sleep, the conclusion of this guide’s argument was very much on his conscience. Then, in the wee hours of Tuesday, the whole thing clicked in The Rascal’s mind. The Rascal had made the same mistake as he had when PAPILLON won in 2000 and when NUMBERSIXVALVERDE won in 2006.
And on realising who was going to win the 2010 Grand National The Rascal slept. Yes, he slept well and dreamt of paper aeroplanes and The Elbow.
#544
March 23rd, 2010 20:00
Just a note – the quote for the last post is also for all you guys who have busted a gut this year to sustain a coherent debate in this forum. Hats off to you and thanks. I also missed the elimination of AIR FORCE ONE which should have happened the post before with BEAT THE BOYS (failed to complete the last two races). Conclusion tomorrow people with two more posts and then I can enjoy commenting on the bits rather than writing an epic every time. Hope you’ll all visit my site in the week of the National though – will probably post my fence by fence guide here as well since I still haven’t launched properly but I’ll have comments on all the runners which will be impossible to copy and paste here. Will let you know when. Sleep well and good luck – the clock is properly ticking now
#545
March 23rd, 2010 20:04
For your info the nine remaining entries in my guide are MADISON DU BERLAIS, VIC VENTURI, DREAM ALLIANCE, CAN’T BUY TIME, SNOWY MORNING, BIG FELLA THANKS, ELLERSLIE GEORGE, ERIC’S CHARM and ARBOR SUPREME. And I (not biased at all, lol) think that’s a pretty awesome group to be focussing on.
#546
March 23rd, 2010 20:10
Some words of wisdom from the Twister !..
Fresh from his Totesport Gold Cup success with Imperial Commander, Nigel Twiston-Davies still has seven possible runners in the race, and he said of their chances:
“Beat The Boys was a bit disappointing at Cheltenham so we’ll have to check that he’s come out of it alright. But the plan is to run Ballyfitz, Irish Raptor, Ollie Magern, Razor Royale, Hello Bud and – if he gets in – Knowhere.
“I’m very excited about Irish Raptor’s chances and he’s run six times over the National fences. Hello Bud led the other day at Cheltenham and got tired at the end but he’ll run a hell of a race I’d have thought.
“Ollie Magern is down to a weight he could win off. He’s a good jumper and quite exciting as well. Razor Royale hadone of those days and didn’t have things his own way at Cheltenham but the extra mile and a half will suit him so I’m excited by him too.”
#547
March 23rd, 2010 20:13
At the same forfeit stage last year, the 52nd horse was the last that made the start line.
Finally, someone else has given Backstage some points!
Will do my list later this evening
#548
March 23rd, 2010 20:21
great to see the place buzzing again, thanks to all!
Its my better halfs birthday on thursday, worse for wear, already!
I think someone here is 50 this week
.. Nick!
so have a good one and many happy returns!
will have to review properly saturday I should imagine, but worried I’ve backed the wrong’uns if weights rise or not ey. Got to look afresh… thats what we’re all trying to do and that has to be the right road.
Sad to hear Aspell is injured… and not on Eric.
Biggest question now, who is as they say well in!?
Interesting to read Phil would give VV and BA 4lbs more making them top weights. Was interseted by the repost of a Crispy nugget (thanks Minnehomma)
that points out some statistical misses, horses that fell at bechers 2nd circuit then came back and won!!
#549
March 23rd, 2010 20:34
The Rascal, though, is cutting to the chase in this guide and here’s the two bare bones of why – no horse in the last twenty renewals has raced in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and gone on to win the Grand National.
Rascal, Rascal, Rascal – apart from Rough Quest 2nd. ’96 and Miinnehoma 7th. ’94 in the Gold Cup.
Rascal if you build it right(site wise) they will come.
#550
March 23rd, 2010 20:36
Here goes !- Horses picked nbased on a sneaking suspicion of another weights rise of 3lb
Ballyfitz – 6
Arbor Supreme – 5
Hello Bud – 4
Ollie Magern – 3
Maljimar – 2
Erics Charm – 1
20 Arbor Supreme (4/6)
15 Snowy Morning (4/6)
12 Erics Charm (4/6)
12 Hello Bud (3/6)
11 Big Fella Thanks (2/6)
6 Ballyfitz (1/6)
6 Dream Alliance (1/6)
5 The Package (2/6)
5 Ellerslie George (2/6)
5 Black Appalachi (1/6)
4 Mon Mome (2/6)
4 State of Play (1/6)
3 Ollie Magern (1/6)
3 Backstage (1/6)
2 Chelsea Harbour (1/6)
4 Maljimar (2/6)
2 Vic Venturi (1/6)
2 Niche Market (1/6)
2 Razor Royale (1/6)
1 Beat The Boys (1/6)
#551
March 23rd, 2010 20:38
sorry poor old maljimar – i need to move him up a few places
20 Arbor Supreme (4/6)
15 Snowy Morning (4/6)
12 Erics Charm (4/6)
12 Hello Bud (3/6)
11 Big Fella Thanks (2/6)
6 Ballyfitz (1/6)
6 Dream Alliance (1/6)
5 The Package (2/6)
5 Ellerslie George (2/6)
5 Black Appalachi (1/6)
4 Mon Mome (2/6)
4 State of Play (1/6)
4 Maljimar (2/6)
3 Ollie Magern (1/6)
3 Backstage (1/6)
2 Chelsea Harbour (1/6)
2 Vic Venturi (1/6)
2 Niche Market (1/6)
2 Razor Royale (1/6)
1 Beat The Boys (1/6)
#552
March 23rd, 2010 20:48
Schoolboy error by The Rascal. I would never have made it, of course. Just a typo on his part cause he’s used to saying twenty. Thanks for pointing it out, will amend tomorrow (but only the years). Need food and sleep now, my writing fingers are tired and that’s four mistakes I’ve counted from three posts but thanks for the lovely gesture miinnehoma.
#553
March 23rd, 2010 20:56
mistake appears on betinternet.com’s site – they quote The Package at 33-1 if anyone is interested
#554
March 23rd, 2010 21:04
kj,
crisp’s nugget shows if your horse doesn’t match the 30/30 stat it might match the profile of the 4 in the last 40 years that broke the stat.
Have put Snowy in with these 4 and he doesn’t look out of place. But we also have him in the extended 30/30 stat. Not sure if Eric matches the class of the 6/30 – 3×24(1×28).
Only horses to break 30/30 stat(A&B) ‘top5 Hennessy etc’ in last 40 years.
10 Snowy Morning, 3rd & 9th in GN, 2nd in Punch Gold Cup, 8th in Hennessy, 3rd in Irish Hennessy, 3rd in Bobbyjo, won at 24f.
78 Lucius, 3rd in Blue Square Gold Cup Haydock, won at 24f,
73 Red Rum, 4th in Blue Square, 5th in Scots Nat, won at 27f
71 Specify, 2nd in 21f Paddy Power Gold Cup, fell in Hennessy, fell at 2nd bechers when going well in previous GN, won at 24f
70 Gay Trip, won 21f Paddy Power Gold Cup, 4th in King George, 6th in Gold Cup, 2nd in RSA, won at 21f.
#555
March 23rd, 2010 21:04
Talkig of horses “well-in” according to the handicapper – well here’s one from 2 years ago – Cloudy Lane a massive 20lb well-in & still didn’t win; mind you Comply Or Die was 11lb well-in & Snowy 9lb well-in that year
#556
March 23rd, 2010 21:15
Good point Pablo but for every Cloudy Lane (doesnt stay and not 1 mention anywhere on here in 3 months) there is a Rough Quest thrown in and wins doing hand stands!!
Cheers KJ I didnt really need reminding but am still 40 something till Sunday. Going by what Phil S said on RP today (re horses he would re evaluate since publication of weights seems he thinks The Package and Erics C ‘good handicap things’…
#557
March 23rd, 2010 21:18
2nd Bechers fallers that came back and won….can only think of Specify and West Tip in last 39 years…..
#558
March 23rd, 2010 21:21
and both were going well when they fell…not out with the washing tired falls…….yes I have them all on dvd….and not just an old gits hazy memory….!!
#559
March 23rd, 2010 21:27
Yes, top of my mind was the constant worry of horses that strictly speaking are weighted out of it, yes still! in this case BA….fallen at bechers last time while running too well, fallen year before in similar handstand style, but has got round and won the becher. Probably Specify/ West Tip was only carrying 10’7, and I would want a signed training report stating work done on BAs upper body strength! but would be a real echo from the past if BA did it. Another eye roller for me if that crosses the line.
#560
March 23rd, 2010 22:14
Hi Team thought I’d post up the runners and weights as they now stand.
Last year the horse originally at number 74 in the weights was the last to make the cut.
In the list below Abbeybraney was the original 74th horse in this years list. Gone down as far as all those on 10-05.
1) 101-3244 MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 9-11-10 Roger Stanley & Yvonne Reynolds II David Pipe
2) 12-1F544U NOTRE PERE (FR) 9-11-10 Tilly Conway Jim Dreaper IRE
3) 001-P3463 MON MOME (FR) 10-11-07 Vida Bingham Venetia Williams
4) P151U-02 BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 11-11-06 Gerard Burke Dessie Hughes IRE
5) 15-50030 JOE LIVELY (IRE) 11-11-06 Richard Dimond Colin Tizzard
6) 0-211501 VIC VENTURI (IRE) 10-11-06 James Dunne Dessie Hughes IRE
7) 1/P002-00 COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 11-11-05 David Johnson David Pipe
9) 3-3U2404P MADE IN TAIPAN (IRE) 8-11-04 Frances Duffin/Sean Corby Tom Mullins IRE
10) 401-03520 NICHE MARKET (IRE) 9-11-04 Graham Regan Bob Buckler
11) 22121-210 TRICKY TRICKSTER (IRE) 7-11-04 Chris Giles Paul Nicholls
12) 31FU-3644 CLOUDY LANE 10-11-03 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain Jnr
13) PUPP/-21P DREAM ALLIANCE 9-11-03 The Alliance Partnership Philip Hobbs
14) 1P00-60 NOZIC (FR) 9-11-03 Coral Racing Ltd Paul Nicholls
15) 553-2057 MY WILL (FR) 10-11-02 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls
16) 3606-4F PABLO DU CHARMIL (FR) 9-11-02 Joe Moran David Pipe
17) 0112313 BACKSTAGE (FR) 8-11-00 MPR & Capranny Syndicate Gordon Elliott IRE
18) P6-51110 BALLYHOLLAND (IRE) 9-11-00 Cathal McGovern Colin McBratney IRE
19) FP-1P1PP BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 9-11-00 New Club Ladies Nigel Twiston-Davies
20) 100-000U0 PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 10-11-00 John O’Donohue/Tom O’Leary Tom O’Leary IRE
21) 314F-016 CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 8-10-13 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill
22) 1103223 SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 10-10-13 Quayside Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
23) 2506-P3UF AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 8-10-12 Brian Walsh (Co. Kildare) Charlie Mann
24) 2U136-2U1 BIG FELLA THANKS 8-10-12 Maggie Findlay & Paul Barber Paul Nicholls
25) 113-41230 DEUTSCHLAND (USA) 7-10-12 Allan McLuckie Willie Mullins IRE
26) 143301-00 CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 10-10-11 Mrs E Wright John Quinn
27) F0-52600 CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 10-10-11 Frances Duffin/Sean Corby Tom Mullins IRE
28) 02U-301F2 DOONEYS GATE (IRE) 9-10-11 Thomas Gilligan Willie Mullins IRE
29) 60/144-P STATE OF PLAY 10-10-11 William & Angela Rucker Evan Williams
30) 00-12100 ELLERSLIE GEORGE (IRE) 10-10-10 Guy Henderson Nick Mitchell
31) 2P-4P1540 BALLYFITZ 10-10-09 Fred & Wayne Mills Nigel Twiston-Davies
32) 043545U CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 11-10-09 Kings Syndicate Jimmy Mangan IRE
33) P23-15P6 EQUUS MAXIMUS (IRE) 10-10-09 Greenstar Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
34) 02P5-011 ERIC’S CHARM (FR) 12-10-09 Martin St Quinton & Peter Deal Oliver Sherwood
35) 212/0-0000 KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 11-10-09 J P McManus Arthur Moore IRE
36) F2-305467 OLLIE MAGERN 12-10-09 Roger Nicholls Nigel Twiston-Davies
37) 330-30U2 ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 8-10-08 J P McManus Willie Mullins IRE
38) 36244/-660 LENNON (IRE) 10-10-08 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson
39) 02P-253 MALJIMAR (IRE) 10-10-08 Jane Williams Nick Williams
40) U01-4U5 IRISH RAPTOR (IRE) 11-10-07 Caroline Beresford-Wylie Nigel Twiston-Davies
41) 6P/6220-0 MR POINTMENT (IRE) 11-10-07 Judith Wilson Paul Murphy
42) 000-33010 PIRAYA (FR) 7-10-07 Terry Neill David Pipe
43) 3-012401P RAZOR ROYALE (IRE) 8-10-07 Colin Cornes Nigel Twiston-Davies
44) 03-02312 THE PACKAGE 7-10-07 David Johnson David Pipe
45) 11-035U00 HELLO BUD (IRE) 12-10-06 Seamus Murphy Nigel Twiston-Davies
46) 1P6-1420 PALYPSO DE CREEK (FR) 7-10-06 Alan Halsall Charlie Longsdon
47) 23/32-31P ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 9-10-05 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson
48) 50PP/05-0 CERIUM (FR) 9-10-05 Judith Wilson Paul Murphy
49) P63/52-P FLINTOFF (USA) 9-10-05 Andrew Flintoff & Paul Beck Venetia Williams
50) 56/-33P5 ROYAL ROSA (FR) 11-10-05 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson
51) 0F-26r20 SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 13-10-05 Brian Walsh (Co. Kildare) Gordon Elliott IRE
#561
March 23rd, 2010 22:23
Re – 4+ prep runs 18/19 stat.
4 past winners had less than 4 prep runs but they all had a win.
-0F1 Ayala
-1 Aldaniti
-12P Last Suspect
-17 Miinnehoma
If the stat holds.
Looks good for –
Tricky Trickster, Dream Alliance, Can’t Buy Time, Big Fella Thanks and Eric’s Charm.
Not good for -
Black Apalachi, Comply Or Die, Nozic, Pablo Du Charmil, Air Force One, Character Building, State Of Play, Equus Maximus, Arbor Supreme, Lennon, Maljimar, Irish Raptor and Mr Pointment,
#562
March 23rd, 2010 22:30
Working on my final lists; there will be two posts:
1) “The Black Book system” selections
2) My own top six and why
And they are not nesssearily (cant spell the bloody word) the same.
Thank god for this site. Felt bad ealier today when i thought AS and even HB were gone along with GTL but after seeing the new voting list and posts feel much cheeered up as my anti post bets are all in the at the top.
Looks like Erics Charm has taken the place of GTL on many lists so far. Great innovation to put the number of people voting for each selection (lets keep this for the future in all votes) as I shall not take too much notice of any runner getting 6points if only one or two vote for them by the end.
Hope to post by tomorrow night – going to sleep on it.
#563
March 23rd, 2010 22:45
My list:
6pts Backstage
5pts Eric’s Charm
4pts Arbor Supreme
3pts Big Fella Thanks
2pts Maljimar
1pt Vic Venturi
24 Arbor Supreme (5/6)
17 Erics Charm (5/6)
15 Snowy Morning (4/6)
14 Big Fella Thanks (3/6)
12 Hello Bud (3/6)
9 Backstage (2/6)
6 Maljimar (3/6)
6 Ballyfitz (1/6)
6 Dream Alliance (1/6)
5 The Package (2/6)
5 Ellerslie George (2/6)
5 Black Appalachi (1/6)
4 Mon Mome (2/6)
4 State of Play (1/6)
3 Vic Venturi (2/6)
3 Ollie Magern (1/6)
2 Chelsea Harbour (1/6)
2 Niche Market (1/6)
2 Razor Royale (1/6)
1 Beat The Boys (1/6)
#564
March 24th, 2010 09:44
Hi everyone,
Please start using the new thread I have just set up from now on please
Thanks
Admin