Grand National Tips 2010
Today sees the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby and for many National Hunt enthusiasts this race is traditionally been seen as the ‘real’ opening of the jumps season.
So, as the National Hunt season is starting to move into gear it seems a good time to open up a new main thread for the Grand National.
With the papers and the internet full of stable tours and horses to follow, we will begin to get more information regarding the targets of the likely protagonists for the Grand National 2010. If we could use this thread to highlight any horses that we have seen that have had their target confirmed as the Grand National then this gives a good starting point for those wishing to get going with an ante post portfolio for the big race at Aintree.
Please also keep us all informed of any Grand National Tips or ‘dark horses’ you may be thinking of or any news and views you may have come across that may help the other readers of our Grand National Blog.
This post has 338 comments
#1
October 31st, 2009 19:31
This is our new main thread on National hopes, thanks Admin, you will keep this one in the recent section until it’s finished with.
Thank you.
Let begin:
One horse mentioned on the Grand National 2010: Early Fancies was FLINTOFF.
Well looking in my local smiths and saw the new Timeform 50 to Follow,(recommended read £7.95). In it was Flintoff who target was reported to be the Grand National. Beware though he earned the famous squiggle mark, making him untrustworthy and unreliable. Looking at his Dosage he has a similar look to Hedgehunter, (if I’am not mistaken, Ben)
Also yesterday was running Bible Lord who didn’t make the cut last year, but was in the race when the weights were published. This horse used to be in last year’s TimeForm. Dosage of Bible Lord is definitely not National material and only seems best in small fields, yesterday race had 8 runners. On the plus side (if any) Liverpool National is wide galloping course and if BL was entered he might think he’s only in a small field. More of wishful thinking I think.
#2
October 31st, 2009 20:35
Neil
Yes Flintoff’s Dosage is similar to both Hedgehunter and Earth Summit. Personally I think he is a tricky customer to catch right. Would the National fences be suitable for him? I have my doubts.
Bible Lord is another who could be considered frustrating. As far as Dosage goes he has far too much speed influences to be considered a contender. Probably not good enough either.
As far as ‘Narrowing the Field’ is concerned it has been a frustrating start to the season, long long way to go yet however.
If anyone is interested I have a free ‘ante-post Dosage report’ giveaway on my blog –
http://narrowingthefield.blogspot.com/
the National is one of the races in focus.
Regards
Ben
#3
November 1st, 2009 14:58
I just found an old list of National horses I made last year (before I’d discovered this site) the list was made when the weights got published, and the stats I used was similar to the main Grand National Guide stats, age (8-12), weight (11st 5lb to 10st) OR (157-136), stamina (must have won over 26f or more), experience chaser (must not be a novice this or last year), must show it can handle large fields (by that it must be 1st or 2nd in a field of 12 or more). With these five stats I disregarded anything with an OR of 135 or lower giving me 91 horses from Exotic Dancer (original topweight)(OR 166) to Patsy Hall.
From this list of 91 horses those that ticked all the stats are:
War Of Attrition, Chelsea Harbour, Knowhere, Comply Or Die, Monkerhostin, Ollie Magern, Black Apalchi, Hear The Echo, Rambling Minster, Miko De Beauchine, My Will, State Of Play, Mom Mome, Silver Birch, Butler’s Cabin, Parson Legacy, Cornish Sett, Garde Champetre.
I also got when the weights rose:
Hot Weld, Kilbeggan Blade, Character Building, Idle Talk, Mattock Ranger, D’Argent, Dix Villez, Patsy Hall.
With the aid of this site I did get it down to a manageable number, but I was just thinking. Silver Birch kept popping into my list even before it’s win (and of course since). What if others are doing the same. I know some in this list are deceased like Hear The Echo, while others are now too old like Silver Birch. I bet though when you make your lists up that some will be in there.
#4
November 2nd, 2009 13:28
I think I read a couple of weeks ago that Flintoff was to be aimed at the Weslh National. It doesnt necessarily mean he wont run in the English version too i suppose……
#5
November 3rd, 2009 00:10
One race not covered in the main national site, is The Eider. While casually looking through Ben’s book I noticed that it was the route of Comply Or Die in 2008 also 2006 Philson Run who finished in fourth.
#6
November 3rd, 2009 11:04
Nil Desperandum also won the Eider after running 6th and 4th in the national. Unfortunately he never got a 3rd try at the national after he won his Eider.
Last season’s winner Merigo needs to win again to get a run in the national, probably not his aim however….
#7
November 3rd, 2009 13:19
In an interview in the racing post last monday, Merigo’s stable hinted the National is very much on the agenda. Agreed he will need another win to get him in though. He was last of those to finish on Saturday though so not sure if anything went wrong there?
#8
November 3rd, 2009 14:23
I thought Nil Desperandum ran the national, but was unsure. You say, Ben, that he ran in the Eider after the National, I was looking at before for a trial race to watch out for.
Ewok (welcome) Flintoff might well run in the Welsh National says in TF that he wants soft type going, national is his season target.
Admin how’s about adding Eider to the main Grand National site for a trial race to look out for.
#9
November 3rd, 2009 23:41
Does anyone think that WoA will target the national this time. Mouse Morris was not happy with the weight given to HTE for the national and with WoA mark coming down all the time (now at 157), was beaten by horse rate 30lb lower last time, it could be a ploy to bring his mark down
Thoughts…
#10
November 4th, 2009 15:28
TC
I think WOA is naturally on the downgrade anyway so they won’t have to try to hard to reduce his mark. He would be an interesting runner should he take part put I think he a shadow of his former self…at best.
Ewok
Interesting to hear connections are aiming Merigo at the National, Becher chase possibly on the agenda? Would be good for the horse to get his eye in over the fences.
#11
November 4th, 2009 16:45
Continuing my theme on trainer’s report (see Grand National 2010: Early Fancies for the others), I now focus on Victor Dartnall’s Russian Trigger who is currently seven. Reading a lot of the past post I know a few were quite keen on this one:
Russian Trigger is by Double Trigger and Cobusino. (DT were a good horse on the flat, used to back it, but that’s another story.)
Russian Trigger: There was a time when people labelled him ‘ungenuine’ but I never held with that thankfully he has repaid my confidence, winning the Midland National at Uttoxeter in March. After winning three on the bounce, I think he fell out of love with hurdles because being such a big fellow he would rap his legs on the hurdles when he went over them.
Things picked up when he won the Kent National in his first handicap chase. He came on a lot for that as he nad been a bit novicey before and won the big one next time out at Uttoxeter. We’ve done a lot of schoolingwith him since then and he has really strengthened up tremendously in the recess. The big aim now if he is good enough is the Grand National, but that will mean quite a bit more experience for him, especially at the bigger tracks. I am toying with him starting off at the Paddy Power meeting in the 3 mile 3 furlong handicap chase. He needs to run in those type of races and if all goes well and he gets the right weight then we could have something to look forward to at Aintree.
These are the view of Russian Trigger’s trainer!
#12
November 4th, 2009 16:53
On the Dosage side his Russian Trigger (0 1 4 5 10) making DP (20), his DI is (0.18) and his CD is (-1.20)
His dosage is almost similar to Rough Quest the 1996 winner, except Rough Quest CD was -1.00.
Like the trainer mentioned I like a bit more experience in him, but I not ruling him out, yet!
#13
November 4th, 2009 16:56
One small point I might add if Russian Trigger had inherited his father’s determination to win in a race then that will be a plus for him.
#14
November 5th, 2009 00:50
Nil Desperandum was my favourite horse a few years back; I think he was 4th in the National the year before he won the Eider and then sadly was killed at Uttoxeter in the Midlands National.
#15
November 5th, 2009 01:09
Russian Trigger is way too inexperienced for the national and might be better of waiting another year before he goes for it.
I know WoA is not his former self, but if his mark was down to 150 in January he would have a great chance. A gold cup winner is still going to have a fair bit of class at 11, and the national could be the aim so we might not see too many classy runs from him this year
#16
November 5th, 2009 10:55
Will there be any threads/trends for the Paddy Power a week on Sat???
Shining Gale fits all the stats for me! Tarotino and Northern Alliance e/w!
#17
November 5th, 2009 11:27
I’m glad someone asked about the PP, as it’s a race early in the season that I like to get my teeth into. It’s a good race for stats, and course form in particular holds up very well.
Some PP stats:
- 31 of the last 38 winners were in the top 4 in the betting
- 16 of the last 18 winners had previously won at the track
- It’s been over 15 years since a ten year old+ has been placed
AGE
Since 1990 (19 renewals), these are the ages of the winners:
5yo (1), 6yo (4), 7yo (6), 8yo (4), 9yo (4).
Based on that I would focus on the 6-8 age group though it could be dangerous to exclude the 9yos. However, if you look at the more recent past and look at the 9 renewals since 2000, you get the following picture:
6yo (3), 7yo(4), 8yo (1), 9yo (1).
Whilst 8 and 9yos were responsible for a fair few winners in the 1990s, since 2000 the race has been dominated by the 6 and 7yos. It’s probably not a coincidence that since Cyfor Malta won his second PP in 2002 (as a 9yo), the race has been dominated by 2nd-season chasers. The only winner since then not to be a 2nd season chaser was Our Vic, though his second season was somewhat abortive after a bad fall and he was still pretty unexposed as a 3rd season chaser.
WEIGHT
Not much to be gained here. Since 1990 the highest weight carried to victory was 11-11 by Bradbury Star, and since 2000 11-9 by Cyfor Malta in 2002. Our Vic won under 11-7 in 2005. At the bottom, 10-00 has been carried to victory a few times. There doesn’t seem to be an obvious trend.
OVERALL
I think the trends point to horses that are 6 or 7 years old and are having their second season over fences or are clearly still on the upgrade. Course form is clearly important with 16 of the last 18 winners previously successful at the course.
At this stage my four against the field are:
Gauvain
Shining Gale
Poquelin (my pick of the Nicholls three)
Razor Royale (If he gets in AND the weights go up)
#18
November 5th, 2009 11:31
Russian Trigger
When did a 7 year old last win the GN will (what will his age be for the GN 2010)? Just food for thought.
#19
November 5th, 2009 11:39
8/10 winners had previously won at Course and Distance
the two exceptions were celestilal gold who was trained by pipe and broke the trends a lot. The other was our vic who fell at the last when well clear in a previous course and distance attempt
Only 3 who have won at Course and Distance
Shining Gale – the last 3 winners have run within 15 days of the pp cup
Chapoturgeon – only one five year old winner in last 40 odd years or so and he won’t have timmy murphy on board
Poquelin – gone up 10lbs after his recent success where he only just got home in a much weaker race
Shining Gale for me
#20
November 5th, 2009 11:42
Forgot to mention last 13 winners rated 136-154
#21
November 5th, 2009 13:48
Systemsman Russian Trigger is seven at this moment. In the New year he will be eight, but he does need more experience as mentioned by several people on here including his trainer. Stayer the PP sounds promising and as Ben would say one of the races covered in his book.
#22
November 5th, 2009 13:52
For the PP you are also looking for a horse who likes to be held up or just off the pace.
#23
November 5th, 2009 14:48
Stayer, TC and Neil,
Appreciate your input greatly. Shining Gale ticks all the boxes for me…I think the previous course win is a great stat. I think even past winners of this race that had never won at Chel before finished (AT LEAST) in the top 2 or 3.
Also in the last eight runnings 7/8 winners raced in a 2m4f race before the PP which ruled out a bunch for me. Not a great stat but when you’re narrowing down an anti post field its kinda points you where you need to be.
Also less than 10 lifetime chase and hurdle runs is another pointer.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s great to speculate about the national but in between now and April there are alot of good high class chases to get stuck into!!!! Hope no one minds the slight deviation!!!
#24
November 5th, 2009 14:49
3 of the last 6 ryanair winners won PP cup, which is worth noting
Exotic Dancer and celestial gold who both won the PP cup, targeted the Gold cup. This would suggest if you’ve got a good fancy for the PP it would be probably worth backing the horse for the ryanair. 74′s available for shining gale looks good to me
#25
November 5th, 2009 15:32
TC,
That last piece of info is very interesting and it’s worth expanding slightly. 5 of the last 6 winners (Fondmort, Our Vic, Exotic Dancer, Celestial Gold and Imperial Commander) have all gone on to land Grade 1 or Grade 2 events later in their career, hence were running in this race very much on an upward curve. To find the likely winner we should probably be looking for a horse with the potenial to progress to that kind of level. Makes me even more keen on SHINING GALE and GAUVAIN as both have form at GD2 level as a novice.
#26
November 5th, 2009 15:53
Matriarch, don’t mind the ‘slight deviation’ at all. All though I don’t do a lot of anti post (with the exception of the cheltenham festival and National) I do love my national hunt racing.
The are clues too for the national in some races, plus it’ll keep my eye in over the season.
Cheltenham is an unique course and past course winners is a definite plus in any of its meetings. (Neil)
#27
November 5th, 2009 16:03
The last 14 winners have all won at, at least 20f – effectively ruling out gauvain. Just backed Shining gale now for the ryanair and in a double with notre pere for this weekend
Another interesting fact i’ve found is that 15 winners aither haven’t run yet this season or have run in the last 17 days
onto the greatwood now
#28
November 5th, 2009 16:57
Systemsman, Bogskar, in 1940, was the last 7yr old to win.
I totally except that the GN is different(the stats are there but Black Secret was only beaten a neck in ’71) but 6 and 7yr olds have won C1/C2 chases at 30f+. I wrote about Possol’s chances, in earlier thread, purely from the point of view that; Could this be another ‘French breds dont win the National’ situation? Or should we just dismiss them out of hand in order to narrow the field?
Interested to hear yours and anyone else’s thoughts.
I’m still looking for, perhaps belatedly, any signs that Church Island is heading for Aintree. Any news?
Badger Ales on Saturday. Any stats anyone? Should be an interesting race including the come back of former Hennessy 3rd, and three times placed in a C1 chase over 24f or more, Preacher Boy. I reckon he would need a third chase win- a C2 17K+ chase- to become a contender.
Thanks fellow bloggers for info so far on PP Cup at Cheltenham.
#29
November 5th, 2009 17:11
I think 6-7 year olds shouldnt be discounted for the national if they have had enough experience over fences (10 chases) and hit the stats.
But if a 6-7 year old is rated between 136-148 at that age, then surely they will be targeted at the big graded chases and that the GN would probably be an afterthought as the horse will probably not have been set out for the race at the start of the season
#30
November 5th, 2009 18:25
A win for Shining Gale at the PP would also boost Killyglen’s chances in the Hennessy (and make Knockara Beau look very promising) – might consider the double
Haven’t looked at PP yet – still working through Hennessy – but CD wins very important as noted – that distance around Cheltenham seems to suit some horses better than any other track/distance combo
#31
November 5th, 2009 18:40
It wouldnt just boost killyglen’s chance in the hennessy. it may also look make Cooldines price for the Gold cup next year look very silly
#32
November 5th, 2009 19:58
Anyone having a bet on the November Handicap (the last rites of the UK flat season)?
Quite like Merchant Of Dubai but will wait for day since trainer has 3 left in at this stage
Possible savers on Hillview Boy, Rangefinder and King’s Destiny
Looks very tight
Charm School in stall 14 – like four previous winners in past 20 years (18 runs at Donny)
Merchant Of Dubai
Shining Gale
Killyglen
…could be a patent
#33
November 6th, 2009 11:50
Hi guys,
Neil – Re The Eider – good idea.
I’ll do some work on that race and see about adding it to the main site – at the very least I’ll make sure it comes up as a thread nearer the time.
Matriarch – thanks for coming on board. I’m tempted to set a thread up for the PP but its stretching it to say that it is a race that throws up many GN clues and as we’ve got quite a few replies on the race already on here I think its probably best to leave things ticking over on this thread.
It’s a good point that has been made regarding the PP and the Ryanair. Have a look at our Cheltenham site where I’ve been doing some long term work on the Festival races including the Ryanair:
http://www.cheltenham-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-guide.php
We are thinking of expanding the blog on that site to a similar style to this one – would many of our regulars be interested in something like that?
#34
November 6th, 2009 13:31
First of all can I say thanks Admin, was not aware of the cheltenham 2010 betting site and its blog. I think that now I am I will most definity be visiting it. I am can assume some of the National hunt enthusiast will be joining me. Still keep coming back to this site and blog though.
Second thanks again for the recognition of the Eider site.
#35
November 6th, 2009 15:42
EWOK, just to let you know after a previous post by you,that FLINTOFFS trainer has said that after the welsh nat. he will be aimed for aintree.on (small)at 110′s e/w.
#36
November 6th, 2009 19:08
Hi Crisp and Systemsman about the debate over age of National hopefuls, I did post on the ‘Grand National 2010: Early Fancies’ a comment about this arguement on the 30th October, 2009 at 8:15 PM. Which I will bring forward to this thread, so that’s it’s fresh in your mind.
To quote myself;
“While we are talking about seven year olds who might have a chance in the national. One of the stats I apply is age 8-12 year old. I feel anything less than 8 would not have the experience, while older than 12 would not have the speed. So if anything would break or bend that rule it would have to show those qualities.
Possol has 15 runs (4 wins) so show experience, trouble is would you want to make an exception and include him in your bets, bearing in mind that a win is not guarantee, or would you have too many who fit in the stats your using anyway.”
Secondly stats on the Badger Ale Trophy:
Paul Nicholls has won half of the last ten renewals, he has also saddled three losing favourites.
Nine of the last ten had won at least over 3 miles.
This often falls to a progressive young chaser, though form at a respected level is a must. Every winner during the last decade had triumphed in a class 3 stature.
This is a key trial race for the Hennessy.
Keep an eye out for horses with a record of coming to hand early, nine in the decade had won in the month of November.
According to Ben’s book (I not going to bore you with Dosage, you are either for or against now) the running style since 1994 are 2 front runners, 4 close to pace, 9 hold up.
Don’t forget the a few national hopefuls running in Ireland: Casey Jones, My Will, War of Attrition, in the 2.30 Down Royal
Happy Punting!
#37
November 6th, 2009 19:54
Would a win for Casey Jones tomorrow wreck his Grand National bid? A win in a grade 1 would surely push him up at least 10lbs?
http://narrowingthefield.blogspot.com/
#38
November 6th, 2009 21:12
Watch out too for Niche Market in the Badger Ale trophy at Wincanton, already rated 145 could a victory or near victory do more arm than good for its national chances.
#39
November 6th, 2009 21:38
If I can just deviate away from the national for a moment (hope you lot don’t mind), the some good national hunt races tomorrow at Wincanton and Down Royal. My preference is for Tasheba in the 2.15 Wincanton, The Tother One & Cornish Sett in the 3.25 at Wincanton and in the 2.30 Down Royal Casey Jones & War Of Attrition. All on channel four.
#40
November 6th, 2009 22:38
Surprised that Ruby isnt going to down royal to ride my will – or is notre pere really feared that much! he must fancy his chances on celestial halo and the tother one. Gullible gordon may prove to be top class also
Really can’t understand why connections continue to run Niche Market right handed especially with the national being the target
#41
November 7th, 2009 02:35
Nenuphar Collonges & Exmoor Ranger for me I think.
#42
November 7th, 2009 18:04
Wasn’t displeased with Casey Jones today – kept on over a trip too short in bad ground against better and more experienced horses at levels (My Will was quietly fancied by Nicholls I think). Trainer and jockey I like.
Have taken some prices on Betfair this afternoon – no key race yet – but looks a great jumper and good stayer. So far he’s my #1 prospect for next year. An in-form, Grade 1 winner off less than 11 stone sounds good to me.
Wonder if he’ll go to Hennessy – staying on 4th or 5th will do nicely – then over hurdles till weights out please.
Will keep topping up over the winter and will also make sure to back my top 3 trends horses once all the trials have been run next March.
But need one to look forward too over the winter months trends or no trends…
#43
November 7th, 2009 18:19
15Oct09 Punchestown (25Gd/Y ,RPR155)
He jumped brilliant. Plan A is to enter him for the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup at Newbury if he gets a reasonable racing weight. Hopefully Denman runs so we’ll get in sitting on the bottom. He doesn’t like it too soft and stays well, and he’s certainly a horse you could start thinking about for Aintree. Paul is certainly thinking that way after today. – Noel Meade, trainer
Certainly one to keep an eye on – looks as if he would be much better going left handed.
#44
November 8th, 2009 01:06
TC I hope so – but I will follow the trends this year and will not back any other horse until after the Midlands National unless CJ gets injured – he’s my instinct selection
#45
November 8th, 2009 12:12
The run from WoA was still pretty good i thought, they need to bring him over here for the better ground i feel.
Admin are we having a separate page for the hennessy?
#46
November 8th, 2009 13:56
Casey Jones OR has risen to 149, his RPR for that race was 147 his TS was 36. Casey Jones could have been outclassed as that was a grade 1 race and he previously won a grade 3 race. Another factor was the going but he did win on heavy (a beginner’s chase over 2 1/2 miles) as well as 3 races on ‘yielding to soft’ according to the irish discription. His jumping though did not help and I reserve my opinion on him until Hennessy.
Concern too about his OR creeping up. He might get lumbered with a huge weight for the National, that I can see three outcomes.
Outcome 1 He wins reguardless of the weight.
Outcome 2 The weight is too much.
Outcome 3 The connections don’t like the weights and pull him out, or don’t enter him for the national.
For obvious reasons I prefer Outcome 1 but will make my desicion when the weights are published.
Happy Punting!
#47
November 8th, 2009 14:31
Neil
Agree about the dangers of AP punting but an average of 70+ on Betfair reflects those – and if he lines up at Aintree regardless of the weight he will probably be 25/1 or shorter given jockey and trainer – so a trade may be possible for a free bet. Think he’s better judged on GS ground or better.
Of more concern to me is the way in which some of the Irish horses were assessed by the handicapper last year. I’m hoping that he will be given his Irish mark because he hasn’t won a big handicap like Hear The Echo, Black Apalachi & Preists Leap did in the 12 months before last year’s race. Southern Vic was given his Irish mark.
But time will tell…
#48
November 8th, 2009 14:34
TC
WOA is a favourite of mine having backed him in 2006. He has a 100% record on G over 20f+. Ground is clearly the key to him. He has never run in a handicap before so he still might be thrown in on G ground.
He was given 157 by the handicapper for last year’s race despite his Irish rating being 163 so he was handed a favour by Mr Smith (there is no logic I’m sure of it). Will be interesting to see whether that rating comes down next week.
With Mon Mome due to run off a minimum of 161, even if his rating stays at 157 he would run off 11’6 (assuming Mon Mome is at the top of the weights). What’s Up Boys came a close second to Bindaree off that weight (I had a large bet on WUB and was gutted!). Drop it a couple of pounds and he would be very interesting if he’s in a bit of form after the weights are out and on G (albeit watered) ground.
Too many ‘ifs’ for me at the moment but he has to be in training for a reason – there must be a target for him this year, surely? From Jumpers To Follow “trainer reports he will be monitoring his wellbeing day by day” – he was off the track for a long time.
#49
November 8th, 2009 15:27
Pablo I hope you have better luck than me. Last year I backed Denman on Betfair in the hope of trading off for a guarantee profit. However that never happened.
#50
November 8th, 2009 16:37
Thanks Neil – bit of luck always useful
Interesting little staying chase at Carlisle featuring Roll Along and Companero. Roll Along should win comfortably but Companero is a horse that interests me for the future.
His trainer says that the Eider or Welsh National are possible targets (loves the mud) and that he has summered well.
#51
November 9th, 2009 09:27
Pablo, TC,
WOA is a difficult horse to assess in terms of how much ability he retains. His highest rating was 174 and he’s now on 157, a drop of 17lbs. A glance through his form since returning from injury gives the indication that he’s not the horse he was and this is probably true. However, i’m not sure his decline is as great as the bare form indicates.
His best form is on good ground, and even when in his prime he was being turned over by the likes of The Listener, Beef or Salmon and In Compliance on testing ground – 2 runs before his GC win he was beaten by over 20l by High Cloy (and others) over 20f when 4/5fav. He’s never shown his best on soft/heavy going and aside from his first run of this season, has not run on anything faster than soft since April 2006 when he won the Guiness Gold Cup. He’s a difficult horse to quantify and until we see him in a 3m+ chase on good ground I don’t think we can get a handle on him. Potentially he is well handicapped as you would expect good ground to bring about an improvement but getting him in a race on good ground is going to be unlikely for the next few months. He’s still in the Hennessy though and I would love to see him in that if the rain stays away. Not an ante-post proposition but he’s defintely one to keep an eye on throughout the season.
#52
November 9th, 2009 10:57
Hi TC,
Yes, we will be having a page dedicated to the Hennessy – I will try and get something up this week.
Thanks
Darren
(Admin)
#53
November 9th, 2009 15:37
I think War Of Attrition is still more than capable of winning a GN. He’s putting up decent performances in top races and still looks very interested. The handicapper dropped him in lower than his official mark to try and entice him to run last year. Will be interesting to see where Casey Jones goes next. Could see him running very, very well in the Hennessy. I doubt this would scupper his GN chances though unless he were to go and win it. With these two in mind it’s worth considering, again, that, at this stage, there must be a good chance that the top weight in 2010 GN will carry at least 161(Mon Mome).
#54
November 9th, 2009 15:51
Shining Gale withdrawn from the PP Gold Cup along with Master Medic and Gauvain……gutted. I’ve just had open wallet surgery….you just gotta love antipost betting….NOT!!!!
#55
November 9th, 2009 15:56
Paddy Power at Cheltenham – Picking up from earlier blog entries does anyone reckon From Dawn Til Dusk has a good chance on trends/stats?
Got Badger Ales down to two (only had a bet on one, The Package- followed the sheep) using some stats and discarded Ellerslie George!
#56
November 9th, 2009 17:03
goes against the trends a little, but i think Knowhere could be the one for the PP, the only other CD winner other than chapoturgeon. an 11 year old hasnt won since 1975 so maybe we are due one. he hits pretty much all the stats
#57
November 9th, 2009 17:46
Crisp – I think From Dawn Til Dusk might be a doubtful runner since heavy rain has been forecast later this week.
Now that Shining Gale has been scratched I will wait for Saturday and take another look then – nothing really appeals at the moment.
Looking forward to the staying chase earlier on the card too.
3 of my GN not-so-shortlist have no form left-handed:
1) One Cool Cookie – last 19 runs right-handed – off shortlist now
2) Niche Market – no left-handed RPR of 140+ and needs to start running left-handed again, surely?
3) Arbor Supreme – ditto for Niche Market
#58
November 9th, 2009 18:28
PPGC on Saturday – like a few others on here, my anti-post pick was for Shining Gale. Given the withdrawals today think it will have to be Poquelin now, though Akilak and Tartak may be of interest EW.
Russian Trigger runs in the 3m3f chase on the same card…
#59
November 11th, 2009 09:35
Just seen some very interesting news regarding the National. Just watched Pipe’s stable tour on the RP site and he nominates OVER THE CREEK as a horse to follow for this season, and that he will be aimed at the 2010 National. I’m very excited by this news and I know a few of us had this one in the back of our minds. Just to refresh:
- Won a Class 1 chase (16 runners)
- Won over 26f (twice)
- Form in key race (3rd in Welsh National)
- 2nd over 4m (2008 NH Chase to Old Benny)
- Never fallen, one unseat (on chase debut)
- 9 chase starts, 2 wins and 4 other top 3 finishes – 66% top 3 SR
- OR 140
After a few years off the track the handicapper may give him chance and he could well reappear rated <140. May mean that he needs a win to guarantee a run in the National if that’s the case but I will be watching him like a hawk from now on. A horse with some classy form in the book, reappearing from a long layoff, owned by David Johnson, trained by David Pipe…. This year’s Comply Or Die?
#60
November 11th, 2009 14:18
Hurrah; is he really back at last! This could be the year! re PPGC, it was mentioned to me that all previous PPGC winners have been CD winners..wondered if Ballyfitz could be [and it's a big if] back to his best. Has won on soft as well and with question marks over how race fit a lot of horses are NTD seems to have his horses ready to run. Also a mention for Il Duce at a big price for a place.
#61
November 11th, 2009 14:47
agree maureen ballyfitz is the one i have fancied and backed at 20′s,especially with the weather forecast.must have a great e/w claim.
#62
November 11th, 2009 16:03
Just had a brief look at the Hennessy weights for ORs for Irish potential National candidates:
Casey Jones – 152 (11’1 if Mon Mome on 11’10 – right at the upper end – 2 or 3 lbs lower and I’d have been really happy)
Willie Mullins:
Snowy Morning – 150 (under 11’0 – possible saver if ground is good)
Arbor Supreme – 142
Pomme Tiepy – 137
Ballytrim – 135
War Of Attrition – 154 (lower than I’d expected)
Offshore Account – 141 (needs to show some form, might not stay (Strong Gale) but G1 winner and could still win a race and be under 11’0)
#63
November 11th, 2009 18:08
Pablo how would Denman effect the Henessy weights?
#64
November 11th, 2009 18:28
Neil S – Sorry I wasn’t referring to the Hennessy itself – as far as I know Denman runs off 11’12 in the Hennessy
What I was doing was looking at how the handicapper has assessed the Irish horses for the Hennessy. In theory, unless they have significant Aintree form (whereupon the mysterious “Aintree factor” is applied – which basically involves clobbering every Irish horse that has ever jumped a fence successfully at Aintree over the GN fences), then that UK rating should be the basis for the Aintree weight (up or down depending on subsequent UK and Irish form).
#65
November 11th, 2009 19:09
Sorry Pablo, misunderstood your last message.
#66
November 11th, 2009 20:36
does anybody know how old over the creek will be in 2010?
#67
November 11th, 2009 20:48
Maureen you are right course and distance winners fair well in the paddy power gold cup in fact let me show the figures. The last 2 decades have produce 16 course winners while 9 from 10 had won over 2 miles 4 furlongs to 2 miles 5 furlongs. Also 8 winners in the last decade had raced between 5 and 15 times over fences. Form wise you looking for horse in form (which I always like) in the last decade you had 40 % winners and 60 % placed last time out. Although I don’t use stats on SP this looks punter friendly where on only 3 occasions in past decade the winner was beyond 3 rd fav. Trainers with good records in this race are Ferdy Murphy, N A Twiston-Davies, N J Henderson, A King, D E Pipe, H D Daly, P F Nicholls, P J Hobbs.
#68
November 11th, 2009 21:09
Dave, Over the creek was foaled in March 1999 making him ten going on eleven.
#69
November 11th, 2009 23:07
A lot of money has gone on Ballyfitz since I decided to back him; I thought I’d get 16/1 but it was down to 12/1 early this evening. The PPGC tends to be won by very good horses; not sure if he is quite of that calibre, although the season before last you would possibly have thought that.
#70
November 11th, 2009 23:44
The PP looks very tricky this year since shining gale was ruled out. A lot of trends but most aren’t ticking enough boxes.
I think i’ll stick with Chapoturgeon and have a small EW on Knowhere
I reckon the trip will be too sharp for Ballyfitz despite the rain but not a race to get too heavily involved in.
Eagerly awaiting the last race on Friday, looks like there are a lot of future stars in there
#71
November 12th, 2009 08:55
After Shining Gale was pulled out I went back to the drawing board and decided to back Ballyfitz at 20s. He has good course form, goes well fresh, looks to be on a reasonable mark and represents NTD who won the race last year. I was worried that 2m5f would be on the sharp side so the more rain the better for him. I have also backed Il Duce at massive odds as he’s been placed in the race the last two years and could go well again. First start for a new trainer too. I’m worried that i’ve not backed one of the top 4 but i’m put off of them for various reasons – Chapoturgeon (5yo, 153 rating, patchy form), Tarotino (no course form, Alan King’s horses not firing 100% maybe), Tranquil Sea (0/2 at the course), Tatenen (5yo, no wins further than 2m). Did fancy Poquelin but he’s friendless in the market and Nicholls said that he won’t run if there’s much more rain. Might just leave it at Ballyfitz and Il Duce.
#72
November 12th, 2009 19:51
Looks like the cats out the bag on over the creek . theyll be queing up to get on this one early on betfair – all the hallmarks of a pipey special on this one – as the stayer says meets a lot of the key trends …. one to be watched bigtime… i await eagerly his debut …!
#73
November 12th, 2009 20:36
Does anyone have a date when Over The Creek will be running, and what races will it be going for, (besides the national.)
Saturdays Paddy Power Gold Cup, on stats it looks to me between Chapoturgeon and Poquelin with best outsider From Dawn To Dusk. I think Chap just have it because a quote about Poquelin says if it rains he might as well stay in his box.
#74
November 12th, 2009 20:42
Just noticed a special bet advertised on the Sporting Life Website. On the Paddy Power race declare page, its for Sky Bet and if you think Chapoturgeon can win on Saturday and then win the Ryanair at the festival you can take double carpet (33/1).
Just thought I mention it in case someone interested.
#75
November 12th, 2009 21:14
Looks a pretty poor bet (33/1) i’m sure you could get at least 50/1 on a double somewhere
Chapoturgeon seems the most likely winner based on the stats, although i wouldnt be hugely confident in backing him
Just seen Twister’s stable tour and he mentioned 3 national candidates being Hello Bud, Irish Raptor and Beat the Boys
#76
November 12th, 2009 23:49
I too have backed Ballyfitz but am also interested in Tarotino – despite my concerns with Alan King’s stable’s form at this meeting and that he doesn’t think the horse will go on softer ground.
When he was with Nicky Henderson, Henderson was sure that he would go on the soft and, apart from the course and distance stat (although 2/20 have won never having run at the course), he is well clear on my ratings for the race. Provided he runs he will get a saver bet from me – sometimes it pays to go against the market and he is a great jumper.
But there seems to be a fair bit of confidence behind Ballyfitz!
#77
November 13th, 2009 01:10
In the 1.55 Cheltenham on Saturday (Servo Trophy Handicap Chase) not worked out proper but noticed that Lacdoudal is due to run. My verdict on Lac is that he is one pace and I don’t think a flat track like Aintree (his last venue) suited him. Cheltenham will play to his strengths.
I know a few seemed quite keen on him last time and I didn’t want you to overlook him. For myself I don’t know at this moment.
#78
November 13th, 2009 14:59
Hi Ben, just thought I inform you, that thanks to your book. I backed my first winner using your system. Hurrah the winner (first of many, I hope) was called loosen my load and ok I backed bigger price winners but its a start.
#79
November 13th, 2009 17:56
Neil S = Neil right?
Out of interest – dosages for Paddy Power & Hennessy??
#80
November 13th, 2009 18:05
Lac has run at HQ many times before and doesn’t have a huge strike rate (goodish but not great) but agree that he is a well-in horse
Russian Trigger should love the stamina test provided his jumping is sound
Toby Jug might be anything
#81
November 13th, 2009 18:12
Apologies didn’t realise Toby Jug was not left in – but goes for 4 miler for youngsters at Festival apparently
#82
November 13th, 2009 19:52
Hi Neil
Excellent! Glad you were on Loosen My Load. I had a look at the race last night and he was the ONLY horse that seemed to fit all the stats. Thankfully I managed to get 4-1 with Paddy P this morning.
Pablo
Hennessy is a pretty poor race as far as Dosage ratings go. I may analyse the Paddy Power on my blog tomorrow (might go for one of the other races) Neil may well beat me too the punch though!!
#83
November 13th, 2009 20:28
Hi Pablo this was the sixth race I worked out from Ben’s book.
The races were Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby; my selection was Tamarinbleu. Then the West Yorkshire Hurdle (same meeting/day); my selection was Pettifour. The following week was the Elite Hurdle (Wincanton); my selection was Tasheba (ran a real stinker, but it happens). Badger Ale Trophy (same meeting/day); my selection was the Paul Nicholls two (spliting my stakes between The Tother One and Cornish Sett). Also that day the was the James Nicholson Champion Chase at Down Royal and I couldn’t split War Of Attrition and Casey Jones so split my stake.
I use Ben’s Stat to ‘narrow the field’ then use a good rating system for any that are left. My preference is Timeform but Racing Post is just as good.
So you see I’ve had near misses as well.
Not worked out the Hennessy yet, but I have worked out tomorrows horses.
Juvenile Novice Hurdle start’s Ben’s day and the Dosages says it should be between Barizan (his CD is .03 out of Ben’s Stat) and Trumpstoo, using TF I get down to Barizan.
Servo Trophy Handicap Chase according to Ben’s figures is between Chelsea Harbour, Lacdoudal and Maljimar. I’ve used TF figures to give me a split between Lacdoudal and Maljimar.
Finally tomorrow is the Paddy Power and Ben has analyse that too. His dosage picks Our Vic (previous winner) , Tranquil Sea (his DI is .01 out of line with Ben’s stats) and Il Duce (his DI is 0.04 out of line with Ben’s Stats), using TF again I get to Tranquil Sea.
which is interesting because using traditional stats I would have gone for Chapoturgeon
#84
November 13th, 2009 20:45
I’am only doing singles per race and I’am trying to see if I come out with a profit for the season, (which is what’s its really about). Ben gives each race a star rating (Hennessy at Newbury get one, while Hennessy at Leopstown gets five) I’am using this as Ben’s level of confidence behind the race and staking in per portion.
He does 145 races from Persian War Novice Hurdle at Chepstow to Swinton Hurdle at Haydock. All top class races (Dosage is no good for sellers etc, Nick taught me that.)
He covers the National too, but I like my stats for national. Still using Ben stats Niche Market fits right into his pattern.
#85
November 13th, 2009 21:01
Ben Today’s race was between Loosen My Load (won at 5/2) and Secret Dancer (third at 16/1), but timeform suggested Loosen My Load to be better. Still quite a good EW on Secret Dancer would not have gone a miss, but just doing win only bets.
#86
November 13th, 2009 21:51
Neil
I often use Dosage for E/W betting, War Of Attrition last week being a prime example. As I have always maintained, Narrowing the Field can be used in a number of ways.
The 1.55 at Cheltenham tomorrow has a few potential national runners on show, should be informative for us….
#87
November 13th, 2009 22:23
Each way is good if price is big enough but like I said trying to get a season where I finish in profit. Which I’ve never done before.
#88
November 14th, 2009 10:22
Just to add something to Admin’s informative races to look out for when finding a Grand National winner. I agree that it would be stretch to suggest Paddy Power Gold Cup being a genuine GN trial but, nevertheless, six GN winners ( maybe even more, struggling to find details on certain race histories ) since 1970 have ran in PPGC and won the GN. When looking at how many horses actually run in both this is perhaps not that bad a return. Gay Trip- won PPGC(Mackeson as it was) Specify- 2nd, Maori Venture-6th, Papillon- 6th, Red Marauder-4th, Bindaree-7th.
#89
November 14th, 2009 10:43
Northern Alliance for me for the PPGC. Reasons? Really confused about the rest of them! Well he’s won C1 chases over 16f and 24f, despite trainer’s misgivings he’s won on heavy ground, the speed/ stamina ratio in his dosage fits in with previous winners, his OR/weight sits in nicely with previous winners and it’s about time the Irish won this. It was between him and Ballyfitz.
I seem to remember reading somewhere(?) that may be connections thought that Northern Alliance best trip might be at or around 24f so perhaps he won’t be heading for Aintree. Ballyfitz was entered for GN last year and the speed/stamina ratio in his dosage would suggest he might be a good thing for Aintree. Would need a C1/C2 chase win at 24f to fit the stats. Has an entry for the Hennessy. Nowhere near the top of my GN list yet but, as we all know, NTD is a trainer to watch at Aintree.
#90
November 14th, 2009 10:53
Neil, interesting to hear that Maljimar / Lacdoudal might be good things today.
Re; GN, it will be the furthest Maljimar has ever ran today and the stats suggest he would need another chase win to be a contender for the GN. The GN stats suggest Lacdoudal would need another chase win as he’s gone 11 chases without winning. 27/27 GN winners had won 1 of their last 10 chases.
#91
November 14th, 2009 12:03
Pablo if I’d used racing post ratings instead of timeform then my selection would have been Chelsea Harbour.
#92
November 14th, 2009 12:09
I will say that what I’ve seen of Lac its my opinion that a stiff finish would be to his benefit. Someone on here though (sorry if I forgot your name) says he’s better right handed than left.
#93
November 14th, 2009 13:11
Chelsea Harbour has a decent chance today, ground will be right up his street.
He has completed the National course before although he has also fallen over the large ones.
#94
November 14th, 2009 13:40
At the prices I think I’ll have a small e/w dabble on Best Actor in the Servo Trophy
#95
November 14th, 2009 14:55
Sorry crisp i mistaken you for pablo. To be honest Lac is not my fav horse because I think he’s hard to win with. However I try to not let personal feelings cloud my judgement when having a bet.
#96
November 14th, 2009 15:02
Neil
I assume you were on Tranquil Sea?
#97
November 14th, 2009 16:18
Yes my only selection in the race. The two others who I would have picked with traditional stats ran well. Obviously Chap would have been my number one preference. On a sad note shame about three mirrors. Ben a question I am keeping records on how your book is doing and I’ve no data on Pistolet Noir who won the 12:50 do you know his dosage figures. Including his B. I. C. S. P. Not impress with Comply Or Die by the way.
#98
November 14th, 2009 16:35
No Neil, I can’t find the full pedigree for Pistolet Noir. The racing post also only have a partial pedigree for the horse, it seems to fall down on the mare side. I will keep searching.
I’m glad you went with Tranquil Sea, he and Ballyfitz (4th) looked the 2 standouts on Dosage and other stats.
Could Ballyfitz be a National candidate? He looks like he needs further and his Dosage rating gives him a shout (as mentioned by Crisp).
#99
November 14th, 2009 17:04
I’m giving up on Ballyfitz; he didn’t jump a fence today and his rider was hard at work right from the start; he might stay but theres a problem with his jumping that hasn’t resolved itself from last year. Russian Triggers jumping didn’t seem too good either in his race.
#100
November 14th, 2009 18:48
What was there not to like about Comply or Die, he ran very well for a log way without the blinkers on and ended up not having enough pace over 3 miles, thought it was a pretty encouraging start to the season and he didnt finish too far adrift.
Ther Servo trophy was an absolute cracker and confirmed to me that Maljimar wont get the national trip and Russian Trigger isnt good enough over his fences yet and needs to wait another year before going for the national.
There wer 2 national candidates, being Don’t Push It and obviously Hello Bud, who both will be suited by the longer trip and the better ground and at the moment Hello Bud looks the best bet for the national
#101
November 14th, 2009 19:15
Ballyfitz looks way too slow for the National to me and probably won’t jump round (or very slowly like Darkness did this year)
#102
November 14th, 2009 19:20
TC yes Comply Or Die did lead for a long way, but when the pace stepped up he couldn’t go with them and finished near last than first. I know it was a hurdle race and they would have been faster anyway.
When Amberleigh House won his national, he ran in a hurdle race, before his national run, I thought he would lose, but to his credit he kept in the leading pack and that impressed me. I just didn’t have the same feeling with Comply Or Die, but season is still young and I might have a change of mind about him.
#103
November 14th, 2009 19:48
CoD only finished 10-15 lengths back, he had the blinkers off and 3 miles is clearly too short. that was his first run over hurdles for about 5 years and I thought that was a pretty encouraging run, better than his run at the start of last season and if they continue and give him another run over hurdles, he will be pretty fresh for April
#104
November 15th, 2009 10:03
Crisp,
Thanks for the info about the PPGC – I will now add to the updated list I am working on of races/dates to look out for – Should be fully updated next week.
#105
November 15th, 2009 10:25
Yes Ballfitz jumping was a tad shabby. Bit like Tidal Bay in that he loses ground at his fences but makes it up in between. Probably not a National candidate….
Though COD ran well enough considering he wouldn’t have been anywhere near 100%.
#106
November 15th, 2009 12:36
One horse who did impress me, was Hello Bud. Led a long way and then at the business end of the race, refused to go away finishing a close third. In fact I thinked he rallied. I don’t know yet if he’s Grand national material but early signs are encouraging.
#107
November 15th, 2009 12:44
great racing yesterday.
In the Servo, Don’t Push It really caught the eye, flying at the end, can this horse do longer distances? as in the GN.
Is the young Gallant Nuit a future prospect? this kind of distance always makes me speculate that extra few furlongs.
Hello Bud ran well, would obviously run like this in the big one, but is he always going to get collared by faster finishers? I think so.
Questions questions… well they may not all be even thinking GN but all the above can jump and thats so important for the GN.
Disappointed as I thought I would be,
by Miko and Lac, Chelsea H had his Irish conditions, jumping let him down in the end, as too often it does. I am getting the red pen ready for these three;)
#108
November 15th, 2009 13:11
Me old mate Comply ran well, better than any prep run last year, thats not really saying much but no blinkers, 3m+ hurdles, positively revelled in it, schooled home kept his attitude. Don’t know why connections apparently think they are protecting his mark considering last year! I’m thinking along similar lines to last year, top weights dropping out, hike in weights… oh hang on, Comply’ll probably be top weight, theres no way he’ll be given any kinda chance, the handicapper is probably feeling a bit ‘hoodwinked’ last year, although he wasn’t! Its a shame, this horse is poetry in motion at aintree.
Looking forward to stablemate Well Chief today, hope he gives MM a race.
#109
November 15th, 2009 13:33
MM- Master Minded not Mon Mome obviously.
I went for an old fav in Our Vic and Il Duce in the PP both gave a good run, but I knew from the weather I was all at sea, hee hee
#110
November 15th, 2009 13:45
I’m not so sure KJ – COD’s mark is 154 and Mon Mome will not be running off less than 161 – that means COD will be getting around 7 lb from Mon Mome (up to 13 lb turn around for 12 lengths)
I am interested in horses around the 145-152 mark but COD off 154, with at least a four run prep and hopefully no Cheltenham Festival run, would be very interesting – he loves the GN and no point in sticking him over fences until after weights out
#111
November 15th, 2009 13:48
Il Duce had a theorical chance according to Ben’s stat. Timeform said it was temperamental and had given their famous squiggle but at 50/1 had to be value for money.
#112
November 15th, 2009 14:50
thanks Pablo, you are right, I was getting a bit carried away with my let the best horse win the national mentality. MMome will certainly be up there in the weights and plan is to run, so going to be different to last years weight rise, 11’10 is tops now, so if thats MM, Comply could be 11’03 not too bad, but I do think with coming 1st and 2nd Comply may be given a few pounds extra, don’t you? maybe not as he was 12l down last yr, hmm. Sentimentality alone says I’ll end up backing him whatever, so thinkin i should just do it now and get it out of the way?
#113
November 15th, 2009 15:10
COD = 36.0 on Betfair now – might be worth trying to get 40 odd?
#114
November 15th, 2009 15:11
I make Hello Bud 100% on the GN trends now with his 3rd place finish yesterday – 50/50 GN winners had a top4 chase/hurdle finish. Can he win it? Has two top 3 C1 chase places now, 28f and 33f and a 47% win/place strike rate in his favour. Will probably need to post a higher RPR than his current 145 (interesting to see what he got yesterday) and would be a slight worry that his current OR 140 could be very near the cut off point next April (OR 161, at least, likely to be top weight). Perhaps a little too much speed in his dosage according to post 1989 trends.
May be not quite good enough after all is said and done but their could still be some improvement in him even at the tender age of 12(by GN).
#115
November 15th, 2009 15:17
Crisp I was impressed yesterday by Hello Bud as I said in an earlier post, but he’s hardly like your namesake. He will set off in front and get collared long before the line. Still if he can learn to settle just off the pace and given a reable weight then he could have a chance.
#116
November 15th, 2009 15:19
Reasonable is the word i meant instead of ‘reable’ which is not even a word. Sorry
#117
November 15th, 2009 15:34
Don’t Push It – (I’m presuming he has a left handed RPR 141 or more) also has 100% GN trends, only lacking a ‘key race’? Again his dosage on post 1989 trends appears to be a bit top heavy in speed. I thought he ran/jumped well yesterday taking on board it was a fact finding mission to see whether he would stay and in quite testing circumstances. Got the scalp of a few ‘National’ winners and gave the winner 25lbs.
#118
November 15th, 2009 17:32
Interesting facts Crisp, just took an early look at GN betting on oddschecker and Don’t Push It has five bookies pricing him mostly at 25′s, has he been put up recently as a possibility or has he just flown into my field of vision?
#119
November 15th, 2009 17:43
mind you Galant Nuit has 3 prices and he’s a 5yr old
#120
November 15th, 2009 18:05
I’m pretty sure Jonjo mentioned the national as a possibility for Don’t Push It, he was very impressive yesterday i thought and i think the welsh national may be ideal for him, he might be slightly high in the weights unfortunately
#121
November 15th, 2009 23:49
anyone know when decs are out for the becher
#122
November 16th, 2009 18:59
Becher declarations out today. Just realised the race is Sunday so not much time to look at it.
#123
November 16th, 2009 19:02
will be keeping a keen eye on seven is my number if he runs in the grand sefton also
#124
November 16th, 2009 19:22
Seven is My Number is the most beautiful looking horse, but I think he’s got a lot of filling out and strengthening up to do. Certainly worth keeping an eye on over the next couple of seasons. Think they’ll plan very much for the future with this one.
#125
November 16th, 2009 19:29
Has anyone got the stats for the becher and grand sefton?
Quite surprised SoP may run in the becher, a decent result and i think his mark will go up enough to give him too much weight for the national
#126
November 16th, 2009 19:58
Very interesting SOP – trainer stated not so long ago that the horse was well but was overweight
In previous years he has been aimed first time out at the Hennessy in 2006 and then the Wetherby race (Charlie Hall) and has 1,2,1 results with his form tailing off until he has had a longer break
Perhaps this time they are going to get him fit on the course rather than have him primed for his first assignment?
Either that or they will go for the previously stated intention to run him over hurdles to protect his mark – he’s also entered for a hurdles race at Haydock on Saturday
#127
November 17th, 2009 09:49
Couple of interesting entries at this stage including VIC VENTURI and PALYPSO DE CREEK. The former is trained by Dessie Hughes and does have quite a similar profile as Black Apalchi before his Becher win in that he’s been slogging it out in the top 3m handicap chases in Ireland and normally runs well without actually winning. The trip might be a bit of an unkown but he jumpes well and seems to cope with any kind of ground.
Palypso De Creek is a 6yo French import in the care of Charlie Longsdon. He’s been brought by Alan Halsell as a National prospect and he has had runners in the race in the past (Wonder Weasel and Longshanks). If he wins this it will ruin his handicap mark but he’s jumped around Auteil, has won on heavy ground and won a 3m novice hurdle at Towcester the other day. He could go well in this.
#128
November 17th, 2009 11:14
Of the Grand National winners only Amberleigh House and Silver Birch ran in the Becher before winning at Aintree and both did with OR’s in the 120′s so it might be worth noting, say, the performance of 8yr old, Keenan’s Future.
Interestingly the only Becher winners to have won having run in less than 10 chases are the Paul Nicholls trio; Silver Birch,
Eurotrek and Mr Pointment.
The pick for me at the moment would be Irish Raptor and Hoo La Baloo.
#129
November 17th, 2009 11:53
Crisp – the double (Becher and GN) has never been done in the same season in the past 20 years – has it ever been achieved do you know?
#130
November 17th, 2009 12:04
Irish Raptor:
Beaten 40l in 2007 Becher Chase (GS) off 132
Beaten 100l+ in 2008 Becher Chase (HVY) off 138.
No Class 1 wins in 8 attempts.
If he runs this time will also be running off 138. I know this doesn’t look a great renewal but unless the field cuts up and there are only a few finishers I can’t see him winning this.
#131
November 17th, 2009 12:23
Pablo I don’t think it has. I think Becher’s chase use to exist before. Then they dropped the November meeting then they started it back up again. The closest I can remember is Amberleigh House and Clan Royal reversing positions.
#132
November 17th, 2009 14:02
The Autumn meeting race at Aintree over the GN fences was called ‘The Grand Sefton’ and was run first over 24f and then over a distance about 100 yards less than 24f.
In more modern times Freebooter, 1950, 12st 4lbs in Sefton, a mere 11st 11lbs! in GN / Team Spirit, 1964, 11st in Sefton, 10st 3lbs in GN, won both races in the same season.
‘The Grand Sefton’ was discontiued in ’65 brought back for just one running in the early seventies.
#133
November 22nd, 2009 13:24
Dev won the grand sefton but when asked about Grand National the jockey said he wouldn’t stay the trip in an aeroplane.
#134
November 22nd, 2009 14:05
I dont see the winner of the national coming from the becher this year – to be fair it was a very ordinary contest but fair play to vic venturi for shouldering 11-12 round there and dispelling any stamina doubts . no doubt he’ll get clobbered by the handicapper now.. i think the henessy and welsh nat will be this years key trials
#135
November 22nd, 2009 14:22
I can if Hello Bud just learns to settle just off the pace.
He stays a marathan trip (4 miles in the Scottish national.
He jumped the National fences well.
He has an OR of 142 which will give him a feather weight.
One reason he probably didn’t win today was he had two runs in short space of time (31 Oct 7th to Last Derby) & (14 Nov 3rd Galant Nuit) but thats just my opinion.
The winner (Vic Venturi) will struggle in the National, he jumped slowly at times and with 39 other runners might get lost in the crowd.
#136
November 23rd, 2009 20:45
Over the Creek entered at Newbury on Saturday……..
#137
November 23rd, 2009 20:54
To get the ball rolling, so to speak, on front runners. I think that lengths off the leader is more important than position. Having said that its around the chair and upto bechers (second circuit) were I like to hear my mentioned. If its doing too much too soon I think can it last home. In the film “Champions” Aldaniti takes over the running at the chair and Josh Gifford played by the late Edward Woodward is anxious he would not last home. We all know now he did, but that is precisely my point in doing too much too soon.
#138
November 23rd, 2009 21:21
Does anybody know over the creeks official mark ? looks like 140 on the racing post website? is this right ? … looking back at his form there a lot of decent horses hes been mixing it with in the past
Albertas Run
Air force One
Niche Market
Imperial Commander
Hennessy
All these horse , he competed against when they were all novices. Most of these have graduated into the big time over the past 12 months whereas the creek was injured and therefore has not had the chance to blossom from promising novice to fully established chaser . i reckon a rating of 140 could be lenient and if theres been talk about mon mone running of 161 then if mr pipe can preserve the creeks mark , he could be running off a featherweight on the big day … a long way to go yet and this fella is pretty fragile , but if they can keep him sound it has all the hallmarks of another comply or die , hes already been 3rd in a welsh national … im sure therell b lots of us watching this one closely……
#139
November 23rd, 2009 22:59
Just thought i’d throw another name into the mix CANE BRAKE, who was set to run in the national last year before getting injured, he finished 5th in the Gold cup in 2007 and is currently rated around 150 and hits all the trends
#140
November 24th, 2009 00:16
Been following Cane Brake this season and he has run two promising hurdles races over the past few weeks (first time giving Troytown winner Beroni a lot of weight & last week showing best ever RPR over hurdles) but needs to show something over jumps (maybe after weights out) to interest me. Won Troytown and Paddy Power back to back before Gold Cup in 2007.
Was given a mark of 155 last year – so really needs to hide from the ruiner of Irish GN hopes until early February.
#141
November 24th, 2009 09:09
From SL website:
“Tom Taaffe is hoping to prepare both Treacle and Cane Brake for a crack at the John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree next April.
Treacle looked an early contender for top staying honours when winning the Munster National last month but he suffered a luckless run in the Troytown Chase at Navan on Sunday.
The eight-year-old was hampered at the first fence and Taaffe admits it was too big an ask to recover lost ground in testing conditions.
“He was nearly brought down twice at the first and got knocked all over,” said Taaffe.
“That put him a long way behind and in that ground it was always going to difficult to get back on terms.
“In the circumstances he did well to finish sixth. He’ll have a break now and we’ll prepare him for a shot at Aintree in April.”
Cane Brake has not run over fences since finishing third in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown last Christmas.
The 10-year-old has had two starts over hurdles so far this term and Taaffe plans to stick with the smaller obstacles for the immediate future.
“Cane Brake will stay hurdling for the minute as he is rated 30lb lower than over fences,” added Taaffe.
“He was a bit unlucky to only finish third the other day and he flew at the finish.
“I think there is a nice hurdle prize or two to pick up with him, then we will go back over fences with Aintree the aim.”"
Cane Brake is a decent horse and the National seems to have been the plan for a while – Taaffe was running him in Grade 1 company or over inadequate trips last season and this season he’s been hurdling. Definitely one to keep an eye on.
Great news about OVER THE CREEK being entered this weekend. The last OR I can see was 138, but normally after such a long break the handicapper drops them a few lbs. I would expect him to be on around 135, and if so he might need to go up a few lbs to guarantee a place at Aintree. The race he’s been entered in is over 2m4f, which you would expect to be a bit sharp for him, especially after over 600 days off the course.
#142
November 26th, 2009 18:40
Welsh National entries are out & some prices too
I’m working through them starting with the favourites
I look for horses that have:
Run over 27f plus – preferably in a largish field
Have had a prep run (obviouly still time for some to run before the race)
Go on soft ground
Have winning chase form at the course or at least placed form or have never run at Chepstow
Appear reasonably well-handicapped
So far Coe fits the bill
And Ballytrim & Flintoff need a prep
But too early for me to play yet
#143
November 26th, 2009 18:52
welsh national is a good one for the stats, i’ll post them when we’ve got a thread open for it
Mr Pointment is down as a potential runner
#144
November 27th, 2009 08:26
OLD BENNY makes his return at Newbury today in the 2.05 Pertemps HCP Hurdle.
I imagine he will need the run but good that King is getting an early pipe opener into him.
Alan King may be looking to get him qualified for the Pertemps final at the festival to use it as his prep run for the National?
Let’s keep our eyes on this one today lads.
#145
November 27th, 2009 18:50
over the creek non runner tomorrow !
#146
November 28th, 2009 15:07
What a thrill the Henessy was today . I didnt have a penny on Denman but that was a joy to watch
Revised National Horses after that
1. Niche Market
2. Gone to Lunch
3. Character Building
4. Over the Creek
5. Dream Alliance
6. Dear Villez
#147
November 28th, 2009 17:12
Dream Alliance; what do you know about him? See he’s back in training. One of my favourites from a couple of years back.
#148
November 28th, 2009 17:22
Hi Maureen – think he had a run over hurdles a few weeks back and finished 2nd . he was entered at the 5 day stage for the henessy but he didnt run . im sure hell be out in the next few weeks and don’t forget he previously finished 2nd in the henessy to some horse called Denman or something like that . DA could be a sporting speculative ante post bet at a nice price
#149
November 28th, 2009 17:36
Dream Alliance has an entry in the Welsh national. I think that suggests that the national could be a realistic target
#150
November 28th, 2009 18:43
does anybody know how old dream alliance will be come the 2010 GN?
#151
November 28th, 2009 18:54
Dream Alliance will only be 9 next April. He was 6 when finishing 11 lenths adrift of Denman 2 years a go, which now looks excellent form.
#152
November 28th, 2009 20:18
I presume he is still owned by the same people; what a fairy tale winner of the National he would be.
#153
November 28th, 2009 21:26
Thought Coe ran a very good Welsh National trial today on better ground than he likes, staying on well – he has all the attributes to run a big race on soft or heavy ground
What A Friend is now favourite – wonder whether he will run
#154
November 29th, 2009 10:41
Gone To Lunch is defintely shooting up the GN charts, needs a top 4 chase place still this season.
Well, I have to admit Niche Market’s run did catch the eye but his win/strike place is still only 40% – his 1 year before GN strike rate was only 38%, 16/16 had 47% or more (only Amberleigh House had below 50%) Have noticed though that he has ran well in plenty of C1 chases. According to the stats he would also need a 3rd chase win. In recent times only Lord Gyllene, had only ran in 4 chases, and Hedgehunter had needed chase wins to fulfil this stat at the start of their GN winning season. Perhaps he’s doing everything back to front! Interesting to see where his OR goes after the Hennessy.
#155
November 29th, 2009 13:52
Handicapper, Phil Smith, “I’ll almost certainly use Niche Market and Barbers Shop as marker horses who’ve both run their race. They’ll stay on their ratings for this race, Niche Market on 145 and Barbers Shop off 156.”
Good news for NM fans so far. (Hear The Echo did get that 8lb added lead weight though for Aintree)
I wonder if Barbers Shop could lose, say, 3lbs by February. Barry Geraghty said that, in his opinion, BS did get the trip in the Hennessy. His dosage would suggest he should get the Aintree trip.
#156
November 29th, 2009 14:49
Nice update Crisp – id be delighted if NM stays on 145 – thatd give him a massive chance – even if top weight on the day is 158 he’d still well below eleven stone . i think it would be very unfair for phil smith to raise NM any higher than that for the national . I thot the reason that he had raised the two previous irish national winners was because he believed their irish ratings were a tad lenient and took appropriate actions . surely he cant rate NM as 145 after running in a hennessy and then raise his mark just because hes running in the national and won a race at fairyhouse.. this is the point i raised last year that i think the handicapper is tinkering about too much with our great race and behaving like dr frankenstein by interfering too much with natural law..!
by all means give the class horses a chance but some of the increases last year to horses such as hear the echo and Butlers Cabin was a tinker too far and Mon Mome ended up winning the race anyway by about 20 lengths.. sorry thats my sunday rant over and im probably talking through my wallet .!! but please please stop tinkering here ,there and everywhere with horses marks like some grotesque scientific experiment
#157
November 29th, 2009 15:58
Niche Market off 145 = too good to be true surely?
He has been 1st past the post in 3 chases but was disqualified and placed 2nd for interference at Exeter – not a stat I rely on to be honest
Has been campaigned at the top table for most of his career – perhaps why he didn’t win any Novice events but has won two big handicaps off low weights by outstaying his rivals
I can’t find any faults in this one off 145 – especially if Mon Mome turns up off 161 (that would be 10’8 although wouldn’t be allowed a claimer) – has to be on my shortlist if allowed to run off 145
#158
November 29th, 2009 16:00
It might be that after two poor runs from Irish National winners in the National, Hear The Echo (who died in the national) & Butlers Cabin the race might have not so much importance attached to them from the Handicapper meaning Niche Market might escape his notice.
#159
November 30th, 2009 10:00
I thought that from a National point of view Niche Market running third was the perfect outcome. After his slightly disappointing run at Wincanton I did wonder that his Irish National win was a bit of a fluke and he also needed to prove to me that he could run a decent race going left-handed before I could back him. His run the other day has certainly removed those doubts. Finishing third behind a monster like Denman and a well-handicapped 2nd season chaser like WAF, was a very good run. If he won the race the handicapper would have crucified him but Phil Smith said that he’s going to leave him on 145, which is great news.
I know that he doesn’t meet some of the stats but Bob Buckler has campaigned him in a strange manner, frequently pitching him in at the deep end. As a novice he was taking on the likes of Albertas run and since then has been thrown in to races like at Kempton earlier this year when he was up against the likes of Denman and MDB off virtually level weights.
What really encourages me is that his form in class 1 handicaps is very good with two wins and a third from four such races. Two of those races are our recognised “key races” so the form looks solid.
#160
November 30th, 2009 10:21
I am curious Stayer you say Niche Market does not meet some of the Stats. At least that the way I read your statement. Which stats does he not meet, because on 145 surely he would be on a nice weight if bottom weight is 136/5 he will be within 12 pounds of bottom weight.
#161
November 30th, 2009 10:39
Neil,
The stats I was referring to are those relating to his chase win and place strike rate thus far – as Crisp pointed out further up, it’s a bit lower than other National winners. However, as I said in my last post, his trainer has pitched him into several races where he’s had no chance of winning or even getting placed, so I am willing to overlook those races.
#162
November 30th, 2009 11:07
From a dosage point of view he looks great for the GN but the jury is still out on the debate as to whether Presenting is a credible sire of a GN winner. The DI & CD numbers do not always tell the whole story. Also there is debate about Accordion too.
Further research is needed.
But I agree that NM’s form looks rock solid.
#163
November 30th, 2009 15:43
Niche Market trainer Bob Buckler;
“What a performance he put in – he is so genuine and tried his heart out. He has come back fine and it is now just a case of seeing what we do now. There is a graduation chase at Newbury at the end of December, the Welsh National is a possible or we could run him over hurdles. It all depends on what the handicapper does with him after the weekend. His owner is keen to have a go at the Gold Cup and the French National in May but the Grand National is his main aim and he could be nicely weighted in that.”
Vic Venturi has only been raised to OR 153, from 148, following Becher win. It might still be enough to stop him but I thought that he won well. Interestingly, this horse like Niche Market also had an end of May, 1 year before GN, low win/place s/r, 38%.
(now it’s 44%, lowest of last 19 or so winners is 42%. Can’t find a definitve list for this I think *Miinnehoma* listed it before the 2008 GN somewhere on these pages. I will try to come up with a list myself or if anyone beats me to it please post it)
He also needed chase wins this season to fit that ’3 chase win’ profile. Perhaps he has ran as well as he can now after 2 chase wins this season. Lord Gyllene, 97, was the last GN to win 2 or more chases in a season before winning a GN. Before him it was Rhyme N Reason, 88, so they do come along now and again. His best RPR is now only 5lbs more than his OR. 16/16 had an RPR 7lbs or more higher than their OR. (Party Politics’ RPR was only 5lbs higher than OR)
#164
November 30th, 2009 15:50
Seagram, 91, also won 2 chases in season.
#165
November 30th, 2009 16:39
What is the latest a national winner has started their season campaign?
My first fancy was Arbor Supreme, but i feel he’s not going to meet the season runs stat. I think this is another stat that State of Play may fall upon. Would have thought that this years national winner would have had a run already
#166
November 30th, 2009 16:54
TC – all since 1990 had started by end November except Miinnehoma & Royal Athlete – in fact they had all run twice before Xmas.
These 2 were both formerly high-class older horses (11 & 12) who had won RSA (Miinnehoma) or come 3rd in Gold Cup (RA).
So far it doesn’t look good for a few of the Irish types. Perhaps Over The Creek too who waas due to run but didn’t.
Yet again they can still run 4 times before the race.
#167
November 30th, 2009 16:59
Miinnehoma & Royal Athlete had both been injured and came back after the New Year.
All other winners had run at least 2 times before Xmas.
#168
November 30th, 2009 17:16
TC- I think Evan Williams has stated in the press of his disappointment with State Of Play’s Hennessy performance and that SOP might now go straight to Aintree! I am also keenly watching Arbor Supreme. Fits the profile of recent 8yr old GN winners in that they are quite experienced for their age with at least 14 chases behind them -Gay Trip, Red Rum, Corbiere, Party Politics, Bindaree. Prep runs is a concern though.
#169
November 30th, 2009 17:52
If thats the case i think we can rule SoP out of the GN
I think AS will be campaigned similar to Hedgehunter, who had 5 runs over Hurdle before winning the Bobbyjo. His national campaign started at 18th Nov. AS was targeted at running in the Hennessy before being out of the handicap and i think he would have run had he made the cut. The only declaration for him is the Welsh nat at the moment
#170
November 30th, 2009 20:01
There’s always the Paddy Power/Pierse chase option that Bobbyjo & Numbersixvalverde took for Arbor Supreme if he doesn’t go for the Welsh National
#171
November 30th, 2009 20:47
Over the Creek now entered for a 2m 6f hurdle race at Sandown on Sat..
#172
November 30th, 2009 20:50
Good stuff – hope he runs ok
#173
November 30th, 2009 20:53
Cane Brake entered in another hurdles race on Sat and the Lexus over Xmas
#174
November 30th, 2009 20:59
I had noticed that Niche Market had a Gold Cup entry; just wonder if he might lose his National chance in that race, as I’m sure he’ll run his heart out in the Gold Cup.
#175
December 1st, 2009 04:45
50 posts per page is a nightmare when trying to find old posts from last year.
crisp 73,
Save you some time – 42%, 46%, 46% and 47%. This is based on after the last prep run before GN.
15/19 50%-90% SR.
4/19 42%-47%.
Papillon had the 42% but from your work he had 53% SR. 1 year before. The fact that 19/19, 1 year before, had 47% or more is amazing.
After the Hennessy I thought Niche market could be the one, mighty CV compared to last years donkey RM ( who had 40% on the day and 40% 1 yr. before) but 38.5% for NM. is a shocker and only 2 chase wins, early days yet. Vic Venturi 37.5% is another shocker.
Just a thought – 5 of the last 9 GN. winners ran in the race before, 10th.,F., F., 3rd. and F.
#176
December 1st, 2009 11:15
The more I look at it COD appears to be the one to beat
A list of the horses that have impressed me this season, have been out injured having previously shown potential or from last year’s race:
Previous runners with key race form (Red Marauder / Amberleigh House / Hedgehunter):
COD
Snowy Morning
Black Apalachi
My Will
Injured list with key race form (COD / Silver Birch):
Over The Creek
Iris De Balme (one piece of form only)
Cane Brake
Experienced chasers with key race form (Bobbyjo / Papillon / Monty’s Pass / Mon Mome):
Vic Venturi
Hello Bud
Novices last year with key race form(Bindaree/Numbersixvalverde):
Gone To Lunch
Niche Market
Others that don’t fit into those categories:
Possol (7-y-o, Racing Post Trophy)
Arbor Supreme (no key race)
Backstage (no key race)
Russian Trigger (Midlands)
Old Benny (injured but no key race)
Casey Jones (due to run in Hennessy but no show)
#177
December 1st, 2009 14:45
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/goracing/blogs/head_of_handicapping.asp
Along with some others on here I have been critical of the way in which some horses have been handicapped in the GN. But I cannot do anything about it so I decided to read the handicapper’s blog. It’s a very good read and offers some valuable insights. “Keep your friends close and your enemies closer” as the saying goes.
#178
December 1st, 2009 16:21
Thanks Miinnehoma for the s/r stats.
Pablo, I agree with you. Comply Or Die looks like the one to beat at the moment.
I, like many on these pages, anticipate Over The Creek’s return. However his OR is now 134, his best RPR is 143. The problem with that is the lowest OR to make the race last year was 139 and no horse in the past 19 years has had a RPR less than 144. Taking this one step further, of the 3/19 GN winners who had a RPR 150 or less, Bindaree OR 136/RPR 144, Montys Pass OR 139/RPR 148 and Numbersixvalverde OR 138/RPR 149, only Monty’s would have survived the cut last year. This year the top weight OR could be at least 161 (Mon Mome) and bottom weight at around the OR 140. Looking at previous recent Nationals if the 2010 top weight is OR 160 or more, then in all likelihood the winner will have produced an RPR 150 or more. I think OTC needs to comeback and win a chase with a massive career best to give himself a chance in April.
#179
December 1st, 2009 16:55
Crisp – the Class 2 0-145 27f handicap @ Cheltenham that Rambo won on New Year’s Day this year might be a good race for OTC – he’d be running off around 11’0 and really should be good enough to win it if he has GN aspirations – plus he goes really well at Cheltenham.
#180
December 1st, 2009 19:28
GN winners first run that season -
11/19 – Nov. 4×2 runs, 1×3 runs.
4/19 – Oct.
1/19 – Sept.
1/19 – Jan.
1/19 – March – 2 chase runs in March.
The odd one out – Monty’s Pass had 7 runs from May – Oct.,had almost a 5 month break and then ran 2 hurdle races in March.
Overall 16/19 had a run in Nov.
#181
December 1st, 2009 19:44
Indeed Monty’s Pass the only one to have had a summer campaign but he was always a regular runner in the Galway Plate as he was best on good ground and was therefore fit for the Kerry & Munster Nationals (again ground mostly right). Also had the Topham 2nd the year before so had experience of the big National fences.
He was put away once the ground turned softer and then got tuned up for the National over hurdles – brilliant jumper – great day when he won.
#182
December 2nd, 2009 09:41
London National, formerly Mildmay/Cazalet chase, on Saturday. This race used to be a very good GN trial. GN winners who ran in this since 1970; Gay Trip-unplaced, Rag Trade – 4th, Ben Nevis- 4th, West Tip -1st, Little Polveir- 3rd, Mr Frisk -1st, Party Politics- 5th. I suppose better and bigger prize trials have come along but this year’s race could be interesting with Russian Trigger, Parsons Legacy and Lacdoudal in the field.
#183
December 2nd, 2009 10:15
Kilbeggan Blade won this race last year and had Hello Bud and Rambo in behind him. 22 entered this year (including KB and Rambo) but a lot of them also have entries at Chepstow and Kelso.
I like the look of HENNESSY in this. Obviously the C&D form from the BET365 reads in his favour but a friend of mine has a contact that knows Malcom Denmark and they pulled him out of the Hennessy to run the horse in this. The Denmark/Greatrex horses are running quite well after a slow start to the season (double at Folkstone the other day). The Champ looks like being at Sandown to ride Forpadydeplasterer and as JP McManus doesm’t have an entry, AP looks like he could renew the partnership.
#184
December 2nd, 2009 12:07
Thanks for that Crisp. The might be better trial races now but you can only judge whats important at the end. Will be looking at the result closely to see if any more clues are there.
#185
December 2nd, 2009 15:33
‘Don’t Push It’, half brother to COD, is entered to run in a chase at Warwick on Sunday. I think he is developing in to a very interesting contender for the GN; 4 chase wins, has won at 25f, placed at 28f,(furthest he’s raced) 55% win/place s/r, RPR 159. Current OR155 is probably going to be too high to win GN(unless top OR is in the mid 160′s). Hasn’t performed in a key race yet but he’s entered for Welsh National, hasn’t won a C1 chase but recent C1 chase 2nd at Cheltenham giving 25lbs to runner up.
#186
December 3rd, 2009 11:35
Parsons Pistol, winner of the 29f ‘Porterstown Chase’ at Fairyhouse last weekend has been given a revised Irish OR of 135.
Bearing in mind that last time he came across the Irish sea his OR at the time was adjusted upwards 5lbs by the handicapper to account for discrepancies between English and Irish ratings, this would have him on 140 for the GN (consistent with Phil Smiths usual approach to predominantly Irish run horses).
Enough to make the cut and a racing weight of 10’3 assuming Mon Mome is top weight (11’10) off 161.
Only falls down on the ‘TS’ stat as far as I can tell – one to keep an eye on.
#187
December 3rd, 2009 13:46
“crisp 73 says:
November 29, 2009 at 10:41 AM
Gone To Lunch is defintely shooting up the GN charts, needs a top 4 chase place still this season.”
He’s the highest ranked horse I have so far for this year’s National now that his rating has dropped to 149 (Niche Market is 148; Snowy Morning is 149).
However the trainer doesn’t seem 100% keen on GN:
“I haven’t ruled out the Grand National, but I think the Scottish National is probably the race I would set my sights on most. I would like to see his jumping being slicker and I just wonder how well he would cope with the drops round the National.”
#188
December 3rd, 2009 14:48
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/injury-rules-state-of-play-out-until-spring/659664/standard/
State of Play out ‘until the Spring’ whenever that is. I know he runs well fresh, but that has to damage his limited chances massively.
#189
December 4th, 2009 03:41
The runners and wts. for the Welsh National gives us a little preview of how things might look in april.
If Gone To Lunch comes in 3rd, in the WN., then I think we might have an upmarket Bindaree on our hands, but with a little bit more wt.,say 10.10. on the day.
Pity about the doubt of him running in the GN.
#190
December 4th, 2009 07:33
I was wondering any chance of Barbers Shop being aimed at the Grand National. Myself I always thought of him as a Gold Cup horse but was watching that programme on channel 4 and it said that the Queen liked the National. How does he fare if he went to Aintree.
#191
December 4th, 2009 09:38
Hi Neil – I dont doubt Barbers shop is a class animal but to me when the pace quickened in the home straight and it turned into a gruelling fight over the last 3 he found it a bit much . he stayed on in his own time but maybe not fast enough . ive just got a feeling that he could be travelling realy well coming to the last 2 and then when it requires that final injection of pace that seems to play to the strenghts of the horses with bottomless supplies of stamina, hell get caught out. nevertheless it would be great for the race to have the queen having a runner in it .. would really capture the publics imagination
#192
December 4th, 2009 09:42
While Im on.. maybe someone has already discussed this – does anybody think Henessy is a decent outsider? won the whitbread last year over 3m 6f – has an or of 138 so probably would have to go up a few pounds . entered in some nice races the next few weeks – will be nine years old next april – won a chase greater than 19k – will obviously stay – could he be a dark horse for the big one . anyone got any thouhts or stats on this one – is his owner one of the guys who doesnt like the national ?
#193
December 4th, 2009 11:36
Hennessy runs in the London National (3m6f) at Sandown tomorrow. Only 9 runners but with the ground riding as soft with heavy patches it will take some getting. Slight concern with the going for Hennessy but a lot of the others e.g. Rambo, Kilbeggan Blade, Hoo La Baloo, Erics Charm and Irish Raptor look very exposed and as a second season chaser he could still be on the upgrade so I expect a bold show.
#194
December 4th, 2009 11:41
I backed Hennessy to win the BetFred because the race wasn’t really a Class 1 race (in effect a 0-145 Class 2 handicap) and Hennessy looked a guaranteed stayer who was unexposed.
However he only won the race because AP McCoy gave him an outstanding ride. He didn’t jump particularly well and AP described him as “lazy”, while Llewellyn said he’s “not very quick”.
He is still lightly-raced and may improve again but I have my doubts that he’s good enough at this stage.
#195
December 4th, 2009 11:42
…for the National.
I prefer Never So Blue for tomorrow’s race.
#196
December 4th, 2009 11:57
I echo Pablo’s thoughts 100% on Hennessy – took the words right out of my mouth!
i remember backing him on short enough odds one day over fences and his jumping was all over the place – left, right, up, down, everywhere but where it should be.
Obviously this CAN change, but I think others are stronger at this stage.
#197
December 4th, 2009 12:24
ok guys thanks for the input – ill keep a close eye on his jumping antics tomorrow! …. i c over the creek declared for the hurdle race in the first .. will also keep an eye on him as well .. txs
#198
December 4th, 2009 16:22
Over the Creek is very interesting. I know people were mentioning him last year but he was out all season.
A third in the Welsh National off a mark 1lb higher than his current mark is better than a lot of the other candidates can offer at the moment.
Stays all day too….
#199
December 4th, 2009 20:19
Looking at London National the are nine horses in this race, don’t know how this race will work out but your nine are:
Rambling Minster 11 11-12 jockey: James Reveley
Hoo La Baloo 8 11-7 jockey: R Walsh
Russian Trigger 7 11-6 jockey: Jack Doyle
Hennessy 8 11-4 jockey: Noel Fehily
Irish Raptor 10 11-4 jockey: P J Brennan
Kilbeggan Blade 10 11-4 jockey: Sam Thomas
Eric’s Charm 11 11-1 jockey: Leighton Aspell
Never So Blue 8 10-9 jockey: A Coleman
Lorum Leader 8 10-8 jockey: Daryl Jacob
According to Timeform Russian Trigger, Irish Raptor, Kilbeggan Blade are all suspect jumpers earning the cross against their ratings and Eric Charm is out of form and says often let down by jumping. The rest are separated only by eight pounds.
Rambling Minster is top on 159 (154RPR),
Hoo La Baloo 156 (152 RPR),
Hennessy 154 (153 RPR),
Lorum Leader 152 (154 RPR),
Never So Blue 151 (154 RPR)
Although nothing against their rating Never So Blue has been let down by jumping and Lorum Leader is none too consistent. Hennessy jumping is also reportly to be ‘not fluent at times ‘ in the bet365 but he stayed on strongly to lead close home.
Point if hennessy were to be a serious contender for THE NATIONAL then he would have to jump better than that, although Sandown Fences take some jumping as well.
Tomorrows race looks between Rambling Minster (AKA Rambo by some people on here! Unless they were talking about The movies) and Hoo La Baloo. Hoo La Baloo has had breathing problems but TF say he’s tough but with Ruby on Board I think he will win tomorrow as for The Main National, I could be wrong but I don’t see anything coming from this race. Still the is always The Welsh National.
#200
December 4th, 2009 20:36
I don’t think Barbers Shop is entered for the National, shame because he won’t live with Denman. Would have caught the public attention and might have layed to rest her’s mothers unlucky loser ‘Devon Loch.’
#201
December 4th, 2009 21:49
Stayer/Silver Birch
I am coming round to the idea of Hennessy tomorrow.
The Greatrex runners are flying as is Noel Fehily.
With doubts over Russian Trigger over the Railway fences and my initial thought Never So Blue (trip), I think he rates a decent bet provided he handles the ground – which will be very testing judging by the way it’s raining at the moment.
Perhaps RT’s stamina on soft will be useful. Maybe have a saver on him.
#202
December 4th, 2009 22:54
Hennessy’s has won 1st time out for the last 2 seasons, however Noel Fehily’s record on board is pretty dreadful
Russian Trigger stamina will definitely play o his advantage in the soft, didnt jump well at cheltenham but only lost by 4 lengths and should benefit from that run
Hard to see Rambo replacing terms of 12 months ago with Eric’s charm and KB off a 10lb higher mark
Hard to see IR staying on the soft
Eric’s Charm is handicapped to reverse places with KB from last year
Never so Blue and Lorum Leader are racing off their highest ever mark and are pretty unknowns
Hoo la Baloo has a fine record at Sandown, goes well on the soft and Ruby has a good record on board and will be running of an all time low mark
Dont think i’m going to get too heavily involved in the race but HlB would be my selection and would have solid claims of at least placing, could be a good day for nicholls/walsh i feel
#203
December 5th, 2009 09:28
Hennessy out
#204
December 5th, 2009 12:39
Too be honest it does not look a great race to me, but I am wondering if everything ok with Hennessy.
#205
December 5th, 2009 15:29
Cane Brake ran in the 3.30 at Navan and was twenty two lengths back in fifth.
#206
December 5th, 2009 16:20
Really concerned for Russian Trigger, and a bit angry with Simon Holt for saying he had refused.
#207
December 5th, 2009 16:41
Russian Trigger put down after breaking a fetlock
#208
December 5th, 2009 16:44
pretty bad idea taking him to sandown after the way he jumped at cheltenham the other week
#209
December 5th, 2009 16:47
Shame about Russian Trigger – really liked this horse – RIP old boy…..
#210
December 6th, 2009 07:40
Who will be top weight in Feb. ?
Looking at the GN betting, I think Notre Pere is the only horse with a higher OR than Mon Mome – could be wrong. If he throws his hat into the ring and doesn’t run, then the Wts. will rise, which is a pain if you fancy one just under 11st.
Looking back at past winners I think MM in Feb. would only get 11.06 ( 10.06 last yr. ) for his 12 length win and not top wt.
C.O.D., My Will and Snowy are 3 other key players whose wts. we can estimate and should help us with the rest.
C.O.D. got in light the last 2 yrs. with 10.06 and 10.12. I feel it will be more like 11.02 this yr.
My Will also got in a little light at 10.10 and was 3rd. So, 2Lb. extra for being light and 2LB. for 3rd. place.( like Snowy in ’08 ) gives him 11.00.
Snowy, bless him had 10.12 and 11.00 the last 2 yrs. So, perhaps 10.12 and a better jockey this yr.
#211
December 6th, 2009 13:41
Mon Mome will not run off less than 161 – the handicapper has told that to his trainer.
So assuming he does indeed run then GN rating of 151 = 11’0
Niche Market off 148 would carry 10’11
Bottom weight would be no lower than GN rating 137
#212
December 6th, 2009 13:42
* So assuming he (Mon Mome) runs off top weight…
#213
December 6th, 2009 13:50
I think it’s a fair assessment to say bottom weight would be on an official rating of between 137 to 134.
As for top weight a lot will drop out because the trainers/owners won’t fancy running their horses on such heavy weight.
My usual observation on top weight is that the weights usually rise by seven pounds from the initial weight published in february.
#214
December 6th, 2009 13:57
Barring injury/retirement all previous GN winners that I can remember have turned up to defend their crown
It’s unlikely that Notre Pere will be risked on ground that isn’t soft – he was pulled out of most of the Nationals last year for that very reason
Therefore it is odds on at the moment that Mon Mome will be top weight
However I would expect that Notre Pere will be entered to add confusion right up until the week of the race – the trainer caused havoc for antepost punters for a few Nationals last year and I can see the same happening again
#215
December 6th, 2009 15:00
I still think that if Mon Mome is fit and well and runs in GN a lot of horses OR 150′s might well run given that all four placed horses this year carried 11st plus. If that happens bottom weight could easily be OR 140/10-3 (last year b/w OR 139- t/w 158) or even higher.
A lot of ifs and buts, does anyone reckon connections of Halcon Genelardais might have a go? His current OR 157, could put him on 11-6. Another good performance, but not winning(though he might well do!), in Welsh National might see him lose another 2-3lbs, and put him in the GN on, say, 11-3.
War Of Attrition OR now 153. Could line up with a very interesting 11-2.
#216
December 6th, 2009 18:06
“a lot of horses OR 150’s might well run given that all four placed horses this year carried 11st plus. If that happens bottom weight could easily be OR 140/10-3 (last year b/w OR 139- t/w 158) or even higher”.
Well I’am prepared to go out on a limb and say that I think last year was a “one off”. I still think the 2010 winner will be OR 137 to OR 148 (as assessed on GN weights day in early Feb)with OR 150 as a possible top winning OR (got in wrong by two points last year when I set my top at OR 146 so going to be a little more cautious this year).
Now currently who looks best with an OR of 137 to 148 or thereabouts? Soon be time for the pre christmas GN asessment – can we find the winner – yes we can!
Perhaps we could have our first GN poll (it was very useful last year even if most of us failed to get the winner)as a Christmas GN winners poll and see how it changes as we go along – it could finish on Dec 31 with the result updated for 1st Jan – what do you think?
As I have been laid low with swine flu for the last week I have had time to reflect and relook at some of the old posts (some very good advice in many). On 18th Dec 2009 (see Grand Nationl 2009: Ante Post thred)I posted my short list of 11 that could win the 2009 GN setting the top OR too low at 146 (if only it had been 148).
Now if only I had listed to Daniel Edwards (top ten post 2009!)who replied on 19th Dec:
Daniel Edwards says:
December 19, 2008 at 4:12 PM
I dont think Mon Mome has quite got the class to win the big one. He’s a bit in and out as well and has a history of tailing off come the end of the season. I should know, i backed him ew last year!
Stats wise, well;
1. OR 148 (HIGH)
2. RPR rating 155 (good)
3. Has won a Chase worth more than £17,000
4. 5 Chase wins
5. Aged 8
6. 21 Chase runs (9 is the minimum, not 10 Systemsman! Minnehomma won with 9!)
7. Won over 24f or more
8. Won Class 1 race last time out
9. TS rating minimum of 150
So he’s rated well, but looks like his good win at Cheltenham last week may have pushed him too high in the weights.
Although Damiel was doubtful he at least, unlike me, highlighted the real possability of Mon Mome winning as early as Dec 19th!
So you see its not too early – we can find the winner by Jan 1st cant we?
#217
December 6th, 2009 20:01
Right I’m going to assume Mon Mome is going to run of 161 and therefore anything off 151 or less will be running<11’0
This is my not so short shortlist that fit the stats (I think)
Niche Market
Character Building
Hello Bud
Gone To Lunch
Trabolgan
Nine de Sivola
Iris de Balme
Flintoff
Parsons Legacy
Brooklyn Brownie
Mr Pointment
Cane Brake
Gungadu – needs a win over 28f
Beat the Boys – needs a win over 28f
Over the creek – needs a performance of 141+ going LH
Parsons Pistol – needs a performance of 141+ going LH
Casey Jones – need a win over 28f
Merigo – needs a top 3 in a class 1 chase
High Chimes – any news?
A New Strory needs a performance of 141+ going LH
War of Attrition – need to drop 2lb
Arbor Supreme – needs another 24f+ win
Can we get rid of any of these on the stats?
#218
December 6th, 2009 20:09
Missed Deream Alliance of there
My 3 against the field would be Niche Market, Hello Bud and Cane Brake
War of Attrition is one i’m expecting to go to Aintree and i think the handicapper will give him a chance
Gungadu could be an interesting candidate should he line up – another Nicholls let go and is now trained by Gordon Elliott
#219
December 6th, 2009 20:43
Nice list TC and a few I have had my own eye on especiely:
Niche Market
Character Building
Hello Bud
Nine de Sivola
I will now put some effort into drawing up a spred sheet to wittle down the top 10 from the 120++++ possible runners who may or may not run – this could take some time.
TC what stats are you using this year as “must have” for your list?
#220
December 6th, 2009 21:00
Firstly i’ve taken in to account that Mon Mome is likely to tun off 161, therefore horses on 11 stone and under are rated<151
1. Top 3 in a class 1
2. age 8-12
3. 10+ chases (i’m assuming a couple of these will have a few more runs over fences to make it to 10)
4. Highest rating of 141+ going left handed
5. won a class 2+ chase (just checked and Flintoff fails on this)
6. won a chase worth 17k+
7. top5 in GC or hen, top 3 in a national/ or 3x 24f+ wins, one over 28f
8. 2 or less chase falls (Miko de Beauchene could now be an interesting candidate though, now tht he’s trained by Venetia Williams)
Someone may need to go over these pre xmas trends
Need to check TS and RPR figures
#221
December 6th, 2009 21:04
Systemsman: “Perhaps we could have our first GN poll (it was very useful last year even if most of us failed to get the winner)as a Christmas GN winners poll and see how it changes as we go along – it could finish on Dec 31 with the result updated for 1st Jan – what do you think?”
Good idea – although I wouldn’t award 6 points for first choice, 5 for second choice etc because it distorts the picture and suggests that selection 1 is 6 times more likely to win than selection 6 – which doesn’t make much sense.
I think we should all simply select 6 horses and add up how many votes each horse receives with all votes being equal.
#222
December 6th, 2009 21:24
yeah, would be interesting to see everyones 6.
Niche Market
Hello Bud
Cane Brake
War of Attrirtion
Arbor Supreme
Gone to lunch
#223
December 6th, 2009 21:30
TC
Over The Creek left-handed RPR 143 winning handicap at Cheltenham in Dec 2007
Parson’s Pistol left-handed RPR 147 winning Grade 2 at Naas in Jan 2009
#224
December 6th, 2009 21:33
Here We Go
Niche Market
Gone to Lunch (questionable runner at mo -)
Character Building
Over the Creek
Hello Bud
Dream Alliance
Dear Villez Interesting outsider
#225
December 6th, 2009 21:39
The NTF 6 –
NICHE MARKET (think he will be on most lists?)
POSSOL
IRIS DE BALME
COE
ARBOR SUPREME
COMPLY OR DIE
#226
December 6th, 2009 21:39
Do we not need a horse that has previously had an OR of 141+ going LH?
OTC will still need a win over 28f
PP TS highest is only 119 and will need another win over 24f+
#227
December 6th, 2009 21:41
Ben – you not fancy Hello Bud on the dosage figures?
#228
December 6th, 2009 21:45
TC, Silver Birch, Ben Aitken & Pablo so far:
4 Niche Market
3 Gone to Lunch
2 Hello Bud
2 Cane Brake
2 Comply Or Die
2 Arbor Supreme
2 Possol
1 War of Attrition
1 Snowy Morning
1 Character Building
1 Over The Creek
1 Dream Alliance
1 Iris De Balme
1 Coe
#229
December 7th, 2009 00:34
Pablo I yet to work out my six but at the moment I prefer Niche Market (in fact if the weight is right I’ll be putting my money where my mouth is), Hello Bud (if he learns to settle just off the pace), Casey Jones (if he gets some big handicap experience), Gone To Lunch, and whatever finishes amongst the first two in the welsh national (providing they are Aintree National bound).
#230
December 7th, 2009 00:46
My list is subject to change but if the weight you lot are predicting for Niche Market is correct then he is one hundred percent backed by me because I feel he is the next winner.
#231
December 7th, 2009 03:59
“All four placed horses this year carried 11st. plus”
Crisp 73,
I hear what your saying but I think the reason might be, they were the 4 class horses left at the wts. Those 4 had 10.06 – 10.12 in org. wts.
From the original wts., 22 horses between 10.05 – 11.10 pulled out of the race and let in 22 donkeys from 10.04 down to Cerium – 22 out of 40 below 10.04.
Cerium was so low in the wts., he had to eat 2 cooked breakfast’s that morning and at one stage in the race he was so far behind I think he was munching on a 3rd., which must have given him the energy to grab 5th. place.
Class will out – with the right wt.
My Will
War of Attrition
Snowy Morning
Gone To Lunch
Parsons Legacy
Young Silver Birch
#232
December 7th, 2009 09:52
Flintoff
Character Building
Hello Bud
Niche Market
MR POINTMENT (remember him!)
Gone to Lunch
#233
December 7th, 2009 09:54
NINE DE SIVOLA?! Are you having a laugh systemsman? 0 wins from 18 chases and the horse has been given every chance to get his head in front over the years. I wouldn’t back this donkey with your money!
My 6 of most interest at this stage are:
Niche Market
Gone To Lunch
War of Attrition
Over The Creek
Arbor Supreme
Church Island
#234
December 7th, 2009 10:05
Includes Stayer’s selections:
6 Niche Market
6 Gone to Lunch
3 Hello Bud
3 Arbor Supreme
3 War of Attrition
2 Cane Brake
2 Comply Or Die
2 Possol
2 Snowy Morning
2 Character Building
2 Over The Creek
1 Dream Alliance
1 Iris De Balme
1 Coe
1 Church Island
1 Flintoff
1 Mr Pointment
1 My Will
1 Parson’s Legacy
1 Silver Birch
7 lists have produced 20 different horses with the Hennessy 3rd and 5th leading the way.
#235
December 7th, 2009 10:45
Arbor Supreme
Church Island
Comply Or Die
Gone To Lunch
Possol
War Of Attrition
‘TC’, I think you might want to go top6/top7? in Gold Cup; Since 1970; Gay Trip 6th, Aldaniti 3rd, Grittar 6th, Miinnehoma 7th, Royal Athlete 3rd, Rough Quest 2nd.(Plenty of placed horses in GN have also finished top6/7 in GC)
#236
December 7th, 2009 11:43
Not sure about Gay Trip but:
Grittar won the Foxhunters’ over the GN fences
Miinnehoma had finished 3rd in the Welsh National
But TC you missed 1st or 2nd over GN fences (Monty’s Pass)
#237
December 7th, 2009 11:59
“NINE DE SIVOLA?! Are you having a laugh systemsman? 0 wins from 18 chases and the horse has been given every chance to get his head in front over the years.”
Fair point The Stayer – I think I spoke too early on that one (got carried away with TC’s excellent work. Not run since PU in Scots Nat(a bit late for fisrt run of the season I think?)and French – two in a row unlikely, no progress since 2007. However i’am sute TC will want to defemd Nine in his list (2nd Scot Nat, 2ns Irsh Nat etc)?
Wait for my offical list but this work will not be completed for a week or two as i want to get it right (I think this first poll takes us up to Jan 1st anyway). It will probably confirm those in the top ten list as most of us are using the same trends give or take one or two.
I am giving any runner who has done well in a key race over the last three years extra attention this year (that way we would not have miseed last years winner).
#238
December 7th, 2009 12:00
Systemsman:
I beg off you to reconsider your stance on the OR versus weight argument.
That is two years in the last ten now where the winner would have been missed using your original OR stats.
if you just say 11_01 and under, you have every winner in the past 25 years! I fail to see how this cant make sense.
Come over to join us on the ‘weight’ stat side!
#239
December 7th, 2009 12:46
Happy to chip in with my 6 at this stage. I’ve worked on the basis that that 161 is top weight, so I’m looking for someing at 11’1 or below on that basis. Age 8-12 next year, won over 24f chase C1 or C2 worth £17k+, top 5 in a ‘key trial’, TS 128+, RPR 144+.
Character Building
Niche Market
State of Play
Hello Bud
Arbor Supreme
Parsons Pistol (ok, a bit of ‘artistic license’ applied here)
My actual shortlist at this stage (with cut off at OR 137 excl PP) consists of 21 horses, and whilst not confident to include in the 6 above – how about Knowhere? Usually clobbered in the weights, but down to an OR of 146 which could equate to a weight of 10’9…
#240
December 7th, 2009 12:53
good to hear you are all going strong,
my 6 at mo are,
black apalachi,
n.mkt.
c.o.d
g.2.lunch.
hello bud,
p.pistol.
obviously,got eye on somecoming back from lay offs,eg.i.d.balme,old benny,etc.
work still v.much in progress.
like n.mkt alot but hope we dont get rambo fever.keep minds open.
back to my other hundred to study,
all food for thought.
njoy.
#241
December 7th, 2009 13:25
Year-Weight-Min Weight-OR-Min OR-Max OR-Lbs Above Min OR-Horse
1990-10’06-10’00-NA-NA-NA-6-Mr Frisk
1991-10’06-10’00-148-142-166-6-Seagram
1992-10’07-10’00-153-146-167-7-Party Politics
1994-10’08-10’00-153-145-169-8-Miinnehoma
1995-10’06-10’00-155-149-173-6-Royal Athlete
1996-10’07-10’00-152-145-166-7-Rough Quest
1997-10’00-10’00-149-149-173-0-Lord Gyllene
1998-10’05-10’00-147-142-170-5-Earth Summit
1999-10’00-10’00-142-142-169-0-Bobbyjo
2000-10’12-10’00-139-127-153-12-Papillon
2001-10’11-10’00-140-129-153-11-Red Marauder
2002-10’04-10’00-136-132-158-4-Bindaree
2003-10’07-10’00-139-132-158-7-Monty’s Pass
2004-10’10-10’00-139-129-155-10-Amberleigh House
2005-11’01-10’05-144-134-153-10-Hedgehunter
2006-10’08-10’04-138-134-156-4-Numbersixvalverde
2007-10’06-10’02-138-134-158-4-Silver Birch
2008-10’09-10’07-139-137-156-2-Comply Or Die
2009-11’00-10’05-148-139-158-9-Mon Mome
Having been relataively stable for a dozen years or so the OR of the minimum weight is beginning to rise again back up towards 1990s levels (in the 140s).
The main difference being that horses are no longer running from out of the handicap.
#242
December 7th, 2009 13:33
Does anyone have to hand a list of the key GN build up races…..also dates they are run and at which course??? Cheers!
#243
December 7th, 2009 13:40
Up to and including Green St (10 lists)
8 Gone to Lunch
8 Niche Market
5 Arbor Supreme
5 Hello Bud
4 Comply Or Die
4 War of Attrition
3 Character Building
3 Possol
2 Cane Brake
2 Church Island
2 Over The Creek
2 Parson’s Pistol
2 Snowy Morning
1 Black Apalachi
1 Coe
1 Dream Alliance
1 Flintoff
1 Iris De Balme
1 Mr Pointment
1 My Will
1 Parson’s Legacy
1 Silver Birch
1 State Of Play
Strong top 6 – GN winner, Irish National winner, Scottish National winner, Gold Cup winner, SN 2nd & Hennessy 5th, and a Willie Mullins horse (no key race)
23 horses from 10 lists means that there are still plenty of different opinions out there
#244
December 7th, 2009 13:56
I am impressed with only a couple previous runners in the GN, COD and er no I think thats it, (was thinking of WOA who hasn’t run in it). Most others with experience and favorable age seem to be suffering Post Grand National Distress Syndrome, either displaying depleted reserves or lack of confidence jumping, I am thinking of My Will, State of Play- injured? and er Rambo- oh my god! both horse and jockey seemed crippled by nerves the other day. The other notable group are the ones who have not reappeared after their efforts, the young Big Fella Thanks, Black Appalachi and King Johns Castle. Not to mention other more general reappearances by Iris de Balme, Over the Creek and Character Building anyone know whats going on with these comeback kids?
#245
December 7th, 2009 13:57
Matriarch: I guess ‘key build-up races’ can be a little subjective, but the ones I will be paying close attention to between now and April are;
Welsh National – Chepstow – Dec 28th
Classic Chase – Warwick – Jan 16th
Ulster National – Downpatrick – Feb
Blue Sq Gold Cup – Haydock – Feb 20th
National Trial – Punchestown – Feb
Gold Cup – Cheltenham – Mar 19th
I’ve identified these by looking at races above ‘Listed’ category that are run over 26.5f or greater. If we were to include other lower quality or shorter races, might also look at the Eider (27 Feb Newc), the Grimthorpe (6 Mar Donc), William Hill Trophy (16 Mar Chelt)
Midlands National – Uttoxeter – Mar 20th
#246
December 7th, 2009 14:03
I think perhaps the Bobbyjo Chase run at Fairyhouse in February will also include a few key Irish players that have been kept over hurdles or haven’t been seen out so far
#247
December 7th, 2009 15:20
Personally pleased about this press release;
Mouse Morris is planning to give War Of Attrition a run over hurdles with a view to a crack at next year’s John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree. The 2006 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner travelled strongly for a long way in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury last month but weakened from the halfway stage to finish 11th of the 18 runners. Morris admits his charge is not the force of old, but could not be happier with the 10-year-old’s current condition.
“The plan at the moment is to give him a run over hurdles to freshen him up a bit,” said the County Tipperary handler. “He’s in great fettle at the moment and I think the National would be his long-term target. He travelled well for a long way at Newbury but he is just getting a bit like myself now – age is catching up with him! I would think he’ll run over hurdles around Christmas time and after that we might look at something like the Thyestes Chase. This will be his last year and as he is in good fettle at the moment, why not keep him going? He’ll tell us when he’s had enough.”
Also pleased that Church Island has now appeared on oddschecker but not yet given a quote by any high st. bookies. Some bad news, his his best RPR has been revised down from 150 to 148. Current OR143.
Just gone through some more horses’ profiles and have found, perhaps one for a ‘chaos’ scenario at Aintree (heavy, mass pile up etc) or perhaps we’ve got enough of these already!!
Anyway, it’s Turpin Green. Gold Cup 3rd, OR 142, best RPR 168, not yet won further than 21f, 15 chases, 3 chase wins, 3 C1 chase places at 24f plus, win/place strike rate 53%, won 1 of last 6 chases. By ‘Presenting’ which seems to a question mark (like WOA) in GN but (again like WOA) has considerably more stamina than speed in his dosage. Pulled up in the Sefton last season which isn’t what you really want but has ran a 4th in 24f chase at Haydock this season. Has an entry in Welsh National.
‘Miinnehoma’. Last year probably was a one off – all placed horses carrying 11st plus – but what I meant was, especially with Kauto and Denman around, more horses just below their standard might have ago at Aintree in order to bag a good prize(generous prize money down to 6th? place in GN). Something like 32 horses with an OR150 or more entered last year, only 11 ran. May be this is about par for the course but most of those probably cried off because of weight concerns. Mon Mome runs off OR161 and it could be a whole new ball game. Just a thought.
Have been looking again at key races of previous winners. Will post to, hopefully, compliment some great posts here already. Thanks all.
#248
December 7th, 2009 15:28
“daniel edwards says:
December 7, 2009 at 12:00 PM
Systemsman:
I beg off you to reconsider your stance on the OR versus weight argument.
That is two years in the last ten now where the winner would have been missed using your original OR stats.”
Ofcourse Daniel after last year I am going to not ignore anything up to OR 152 (I do not intend to get caught out again by the odd 2 or 4lbs)and if it fits all the stas it will be in my list.
Now if Mon Mone is top weight on OR 161
11.01 is OR 152
But I still feel that the most likely winners OR will be 137 to 148 (with 150 as a possible max)
Giving a winning weight of
150 – 10.13
148 – 10.11
down to
137 – 10.00
Would cover 23/25
But you are correct to remind me not to ignore the possibility of anything carrying up to 11.01 (possibly OR 152)
#249
December 7th, 2009 15:29
Correction:
Last post should say (must type more slowly):
“Ofcourse Daniel after last year I am NOT going to not ignore anything up to OR 152″
#250
December 7th, 2009 15:50
I think that Systemsman is right for trying to find the winner before Xmas and his caution about OR also leaves an extra 2 lb or so that the handicapper might add on for whatever reason.
Any Irish horses around the 148 mark will need some leniency from the handicapper because they normally get raised a few extra lbs
However I also agree with Daniel and Miinnehoma that once the final weights are known the runners need to be reassessed in the context of the race.
Last year I was so obsessed with Rambo’s chances that I didn’t properly re-evaluate during race week. Something that I had always done before.
There’s so much that can change – going, late withdrawals before final decs etc
Recent study has shown that there is always value in every National a few days before the race. Most favourites start at 7/1 and most horses don’t stand a chance!!!
Which is why we love it so much!
Slowly slowly catchy GN winner – patience is the key I feel.
#251
December 7th, 2009 16:01
Just thinking out loud.
Take a look at this video and spot the horse who must be in anyone’s top 3 and a likely 2010 GN winner. Tip – its not the winner (this was over only 26f so a bit fast for my hero – but just look at that jumping)!
Replay – Vic Venturi wins Becher Chase
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/8373142.stm
OR 142 – spot on!!
The name is obvious. Any views out there?
#252
December 7th, 2009 17:23
Looks like i was slightly out on the stats – could do with a page just for them
It seems as if we’re looking at horses too high in the weights at the moment and i’d be surprised if Niche Market got in off 148, likewise Cane Brake i think the handicapper may take into account he’s been running over hurdles and put him up. Was WoA dropped a few lbs for last years national tthough?
I’m still not convinced a horse out of presenting will truely get the GN trip, anyone got a record of how they fare over longer trips? As i think their best trip is 3m 4f, this takes into account of (NM, WoA and Turpin Green)
I still think the most likely winner is Hello Bud who would currently carry 10’4 on the day and his run in the becher couldnt of gone any better for NTD, who saw him jump brilliantly, bar one small hiccup. At least we know he will be right up there and out of all the trouble in the GN
Another i like is Arbor Supreme, who has an entry at Cheltenham this week and in the welsh national. The one problem i have with AS, is that he is one that always seems to be held up and that tactic didnt help at all in the Irish National, however at least we know he’s got the stamina and what are the chances of him copying Hedgehunter in winning the Bobbyjo and then the GN – could be a late one to fit the trends
#253
December 7th, 2009 18:06
Anyone like the look of Gungadu, had a mark as high as 161 18 months ago, now trained by Gordon Elliott. I think Paul Nicholls didnt do a great job with him last year – often pitching him in handicaps and letting him run off top weight. He would have won the 4 miler at cheltenham a couple of years, where Butlers Cabin won (who proved tat he was in fine form at the time). Came 6th in the welsh national on his 6th start giving 11lb to miko de beauchene.
As far as the trend go, he will need a win over 28f? Could be a real dark-horse though
#254
December 7th, 2009 18:28
Looking back over the past 19 runnings the following have qualified as top 3 rated (or equal) based on the criteria that I will use this year and have all carried between 11’0 and 11’5 on the day.
The approach is not to rule out any horse for any failure to meet any trend – just add up points gained for each attribute and rank in descending order.
Each race is different and in some years a lower score qualifies.
They haven’t fared badly in terms of performance – 2 wins and 2 4th places out of 9. Much better than the average of 37% finishers.
However this type of horse, with the exception of Mon Mome, has not gone unnoticed and the prices have ranged between 7/1 and 14/1 (Mon Mome of course was 100/1).
Year – Weight – OR – Position – Odds – Horse
1992 – 11’2 – 162 – 4 – 7.5 – Docklands Express
1994 – 11’4 – 163 – P – 9 – The Fellow
1995 – 11’4 – 167 – P – 11 – Miinnehoma
1996 – 11’0 – 159 – U – 8 – Son Of War
2001 – 11’5 – 148 – 4 – 14 – Papillon
2002 – 11’1 – 147 – F – 10 – David’s Lad
2005 – 11’1 – 144 – 1 – 7 – Hedgehunter
2009 – 11’0 – 148 – 1 – 100 – Mon Mome
2009 – 11’5 – 153 – U – 11 – Black Apalachi
This system only works for the final 40 runners and I will post selections up once final declarations are up.
As Miinnehoma (the poster not the horse!) said above so many horses can pull out between initial weights and the race itself that it’s pointless trying to use my system to bet ante-post. Just end up with a big book and smaller profits (if the winner is found!).
#255
December 7th, 2009 18:56
Obviously the vast majority of qualifiers have had <11’0 on their backs
#256
December 7th, 2009 19:10
TC looks like we think alike. Just looking again at the Beecher Chase and you just know that Hello Bud will be right up there in the GN 2010 with the stamina to win and the right weight to see off any late challange. What was interesting about the BC was the way Hello Bud recovered so well from his one mistake otherwise great jumping, leading almost all the way in too short a race for him (I think the whole idea was not to win but to get a feal for the GN fences).
Niche Market would be a live danger but like you TC I also feel the handicapper will not be kind and rate him well over OR148 and blow his chances.
Not sure why TC and others are so keen on Arbor Supreme (good stamina, good OR but class?)unless he wins one or two good races soon, perhaps you can enlighten me?
#257
December 7th, 2009 19:28
Reasons i like Arbor Supreme, although he has dropped down the pecking order
1. Definitely being targeted at the GN
2. Plenty of stamina – won at 29f and 30f (needs another win over 24f or a placing in the welsh national to hit the trends though)
3. age 8-12 in GN
4. Ran in 1+ chases
5. fallen once
6. won a chase worth 17k+
7. Prefers the better ground
8. OR 142
9. very consistent, only been out the top 5 once in all chases
10. likely to have a top jock on board (mccoy, walsh or townend) probably mccoys mount i’d imagine
Now for the negatives
1. will he run 4-6 ties before the GN?
2. Style of running – major negative for me – having said that he has won a race with 24 runners
Has he go the class? – who knows, if he records another win at 24f+, we know he is on track with the trends
#258
December 7th, 2009 19:32
Howdi systems man – good to see u back and on the road to a full recovery..! . quick question for u and tc . why would the handicapper rate niche market any higher than 148? . what justifiable reason does he have for raising his OR any further . surely hes already been assesed on his irish nat win which took him to 145 and then another 3lbs for his hennessy heroics. hes never ran over the aintree fences before and hes not irish so whats the rationale for any further hikes . would be interested in your thoughts…
#259
December 7th, 2009 19:47
Systemsman, TC.
I thought and said on several threads that Hello Bud could come out from that race to have a major chance in THE NATIONAL itself. (Check out comments 65/6 on the Hello Bud thread). I said though that I would prefer it to settle just off the leaders (Obviously though not too far back). RP says it would be suited by better ground, Becher’s was ran on soft.
My first still has too be Niche Market who ran well in two major Grand National trials (Irish National & Hennessy).
#260
December 7th, 2009 20:15
As yet I still not happy putting a six. Not completely happy with Gone To Lunch either since he only won in small fields, but been placed in large fields. Just don’t want to write him off but my gut feelings are growing negative for Gone To Lunch.
#261
December 7th, 2009 20:16
silver – there’s no justifiable reason for the handicapper putting NM anymore, but the fact that he hasnt been very kind to the Irish National winners in recent years is a bit of a concern and a mark of 148 looks very lenient
Neil – I think Hello Bud is at his best trying to make all and thats how he won the scottish national and was running well in his last two races – becher slightly on the short side though. He hasnt got the turn of foot which some of the younger horses are likely to have so he’ll be better making all
#262
December 7th, 2009 20:45
TC – fair point – every time i think about topping up my ante post on the niche market , i start to get the jiters in case he ends up with more than 148 – 148 I believe would give him a great chance , any more than 151 and hes into 11stone + territory which could prove fatal…guess thats the chance we all take .. !
#263
December 7th, 2009 20:46
TC if Hello Bud fits my final stats then a bet will be placed on him. Missed Red Marauder in 2001 because I underestimated him even though he made my final stats. Then blow me did the same again for Mon Mome last year.
#264
December 7th, 2009 20:54
Silver I tried being clever too by placing my Ante post bets before all the facts were in. Last year and the year before. Waiting until date of weights now and in case you think the value might have gone, you be suprised got Earth Summit at 25′s.
#265
December 7th, 2009 21:10
TC Reading Ben’s book “NARROWING THE FIELD ” on the Grand National, he’s studied the last decade and a half and on running styles he says one won from the front, nine won from close to pace and five won being held up. He explains that only Lord Gyllene won making all in that period. I just feel that Hello Bud should as Ben suggest keep close to the pace but not lead. Not until approaching 3 out give or take a fence.
#266
December 7th, 2009 21:39
Just looking at last year’s race and the following horses under 11’0 were the likeliest contenders:
Southern Vic – negatives ground, no key race
Darkness – breeding, no key race
Cornish Sett – no major negatives, not that well-handicapped
L’Ami – too many falls, on the downgrade
Himalayan Trail – out of form
Rambling Minster – qualified by my stats, no key race
Kilbeggan Blade – class, no key race
None of these placed or came close to placing.
Of those currently rated in the 140s with key race form these 3 stand out:
Gone To Lunch – nicely handicapped on best form, but will he go?
Hello Bud – could do with upping his RPR – is he exposed? The last two 12 year olds to win were Royal Athlete (3rd in GC) and Amberleigh House – Aintree specialist who posted his best ever performance in the Becher that year (just beaten by co-favourite for GN – Clan Royal – and RPR-OR = +15!!)
Niche Market – solid contender off 148.
Perhaps another 11’0+ horse will win again?
#267
December 7th, 2009 22:23
TC
On Dosage ratings I cannot have HELLO BUD.
As Neil has also pointed out, a pillar to post National winner is rare these days so that would be another negative in my book.
Cheers
#268
December 7th, 2009 23:09
Hello Bud – needs the quicker ground to win?
dosage stats would suggest he hasnt quite the stamina of previous runners
Willing to use the dosage stats for the GN, but i think the trends are very strong for the race and a bit more reliable. I dont think the dosage stats could have been used to find the likes of Mon mome, mr frisk, little polveir and a few more
Completely forgot that Black Apalachi will probably run again – he’s the likely front runner. Think it is also likely Mr Pointment will run under his new trainer who would be another front runner and i’d imagine HB would sit in behind.
#269
December 8th, 2009 00:02
The a list of prices available on sporting life oddschecker for the Grand National. http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/grand-national
#270
December 8th, 2009 00:03
TC
DOSAGE stats would not have picked some winners but then the same can be said for any and almost every stat and analysis tool.
The chances are HELLO BUD will sit in behind other more prominent front runners so the chances of him being an out and out front runner are maybe not as high as we think (as suggested by TC above).
#271
December 8th, 2009 00:20
You got to admit that he jumped around Aintree very well, only tiring on the run in. We know he can stay because he won the Scottish National that way but how good is the scottish version to the main national. I won’t discount Hello Bud yet he’s just not my number one choice. On good ground he probably be the one I’ll be cheering until Niche Market comes up the elbow to win.
#272
December 8th, 2009 00:28
To be honest Neil I don’t think Hello Bud’s Scottish National was that great. Non-runners and a few under performers maybe devalue the form slightly. It may also be the case that he is struggling off his mark in the 140s…..
#273
December 8th, 2009 09:22
Ben,
I agree that the handicapper may have Hello Bud’s measure now. Just over a year ago he was rated 111 and has gone up by over 30lbs in the last 12 months. I know he’s lightly raced for his age but at rising 12 there can’t be much more improvement to come.
Someone further up mentioned Gungadu? I don’t agree that he would have won the 4-miler at Cheltenham as he fell when running out of petrol. I have doubts about his stamina at anything over 3m1f. He also didn’t seem to enjoy himself in the Becher Chase last year. Difficult to fancy.
#274
December 8th, 2009 10:05
Interesting that noone has mentioned Tricky Trickster recently
Before he was transferred to Nicholls, NTD spoke of him along with Hello Bud & Irish Raptor as a possible winner
Probably would have been out by now under NTD
Is all well with the horse?
Mely Moss came second without a run in 2000
The way that Nicholls got Denman back to his best in the Hennessy suggests that Tricky Trickster may yet run a big race
My concerns would be – lack of experience, big hike in weights
But then the way he outstayed them to win at Cheltenham with the horses behind him that day – he could be anything
Thoughts…
#275
December 8th, 2009 11:15
I think it’s highly unlikely that Hello Bud will win GN. Apart from the dosage angle, 16/16 have won with a RPR 7lbs more than their OR/ 14/16 8lbs or more. The last winner not to do so was Party Politics and he raced off OR152, RPR 157. Hello Bud OR 142/RPR 145 would either have to lose 4lbs, and maybe not even make the cut, or run a new personal best. As I mentioned when talking about Over The Creek only three recent winners had an RPR in the 140′s and they all ran of an OR in the 130′s. Last year bottom weight was OR139. I appreciate that RPR figures are only someone else’s view of form but they do seem to be consistent.
Systemsman, can’t wait for your Christmas in depth look at the hopefuls. Arbor Supreme does need a very good performance on a left handed track and personally I would like to seem him place in the Welsh National (otherwise I would say a win for him is also unlikely) OR 142/RPR 148 (also a negative) but his dosage is spot on, won a 23k chase, won 3 chases, won at 24f, won and placed in C1 chases from 24f-30f, has won 1 of his last 5 chases. He will only be 8yr old but last five 8yr old winners had ran in at least 14 chases and he’s already ran in 14 chases. If he rectifies his negatives at Cheltenham on Friday, or at Chepstow, he could be the one for GN.
#276
December 8th, 2009 11:31
Interesting news regarding WOA”
“Mouse Morris is planning to give War Of Attrition a run over hurdles with a view to a crack at next year’s John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree.
The 2006 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner travelled strongly for a long way in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury last month but weakened from the halfway stage to finish 11th of the 18 runners.
Morris admits his charge is not the force of old, but could not be happier with the 10-year-old’s current condition.
“The plan at the moment is to give him a run over hurdles to freshen him up a bit,” said the County Tipperary handler.
“He’s in great fettle at the moment and I think the National would be his long-term target.
“He travelled well for a long way at Newbury but he is just getting a bit like myself now – age is catching up with him!
“I would think he’ll run over hurdles around Christmas time and after that we might look at something like the Thyestes Chase.
“This will be his last year and as he is in good fettle at the moment, why not keep him going?
“He’ll tell us when he’s had enough.””
Looks like the National could be his swansong. Would be great to see the horse bow out in a blaze of glory.
#277
December 8th, 2009 12:11
Pablo,
I think the big worry with Tricky Trickster is that he will only be 7 next year and only has 4 chases under his belt at the moment. Bearing in mind that he won’t run before the weights come out he will probably go to Aintree having competed in just 6 chases. It’s a concern.
I also think he’s been harshly treated by the handicapper for that win at Cheltenham. I know it was a visually impressive performance but the majority of the field were either plodders like Nine De Sivola that were too slow to contest the RSA or non-stayers that travelled really well before folding like Can’t Buy Time and Drumconvis. Those two travelled like classier animals but just didn’t get up the hill. I think 149 is steep to be honest.
Crisp,
Arbor Supreme is a horse that caught my attention a few seasons ago when as a 6yo he beat Black Apalachi and some other useful stayers over 3m6f. He is similar to TT in that he showed a high level of stamina at a young age which marked him out as a possible National candidate of the future.
I think the National the 2010 National has been the plan for some time. They could have gone for the race last year but Willie Mullins has kept the horse ticking over, and getting a seasons worth of extra experience into him. TT won the Cheltenham 4-miler this year and the plan is to send him to Aintree as a very inexperienced 7yo next April. Why? What’s the rush? If this horse was trained in Ireland I think they would keep him in Ireland running over trips like 2m4f/2m6f to get more experience into him and possibly get him dropped in the weights by a few lbs. They would then be looking at the 2011 National for him. The Irish trainers seem to be in less of a rush to fire their horses at tha National fences – Papillon contested the Irish National a couple of timed before heading to Aintree and Numbersixvalverde and Bobbyjo won that race before their Aintree Glory. You look at Irish runners in the National and the majority of them are battle-hardened pros that are used to slogging it out in big field handicaps. The Britsh trainers are far happier to send 7yo or novices to the race, but they don’t win.
#278
December 8th, 2009 12:41
Posted this on another forum about Mr Pointment. He’s an interesting outsider.
———————————————-
Previous experience over the Aintree fences is a bonus for the Grand National and Mr Pointment has that, having won the Becher Chase in 2007 and finishing 2nd to Black Apalachi in 2008.
Following his win in 2007, he had a crack at the Grand National in the following April, and pulled up at the last fence when beaten, having raced up with the pace.
The consensus from that is that he didn’t stay the trip, but I think that is debateable. He has enough stamina in his pedigree to suggest the trip is doable. His sire is Old Vic, who is also responsible for the likes of Black Apalachi, GN winner Comply or Die, Southern Vic and Chelsea Harbour.
Of more note may be the fact he was hammered by the handicapper for his Becher win, and subsequently lined up for the National with a weight of 11 stone 11 lb’s (OR 155). Considering he was rated only 1 lb lower than the great Hedgehunter, it was a near impossible task for a chaser as inexperienced as he was at the time.
By comparison 2 years later, he starts this season off an OR of 141, which would make him attractively weighted in the National, especially with another 2 years under his belt. His form over fences looks of a high enough level to make 141 a fair mark – his only disappointing runs were last time out over a trip too short and in his prep for the 2008 GN when he was found to have broken a blood vessel during the race. Otherwise he has form behind Hennessy 5th Gone to Lunch, and fellow National hopeful Don’t Push It. His 30 length+ 2nd of 3 behind Denman was understandable given he was only getting 3lb’s!
So having missed the 2009 renewal, why do I think he will run in 2010? Basically there has been a change of ownership. Previously owned by a syndicate of hairdressers, he has now been bought by Mrs J E Wilson, the owner of the likes of Cerium and Arteea, who were given entries for last years race. Wilson attracted criticism for entering these perceived also-rans, as she was viewed as having runners for the sake of it and for the prestige of having an entry in the Grand National when the horses themselves were deemed to have no hope in the race.
However, under the guidance of trainer Paul Murphy, both horses ran well to finish 5th and 10th respectively. Mr Pointment, as a result of the new ownership, has moved stables from Paul Nicholls to the aforementioned Paul Murphy. In my opinion, this bodes well for the prospects of an entry for Mr Pointment, who has better GN credentials than either of those two horses.
An ex-Paul Nicholls winner of the Grand National that springs to mind is Silver Birch – can Mr Pointment repeat the feat?
At 276/1 he has to be worth a few speculative £’s.
#279
December 8th, 2009 12:47
Crisp 73 “I think it’s highly unlikely that Hello Bud will win GN. Apart from the dosage angle, 16/16 have won with a RPR 7lbs more than their OR/ 14/16 8lbs or more. The last winner not to do so was Party Politics and he raced off OR152, RPR 157. Hello Bud OR 142/RPR 145 would either have to lose 4lbs, and maybe not even make the cut, or run a new personal best.”
Well I have to say that is some impressive facts we do need to take note of however there is still plenty of time for any hosre (including HB) to win a big race between now and the GN (in many case perferably after weights day).Anyone spot a good runner whoes RPR is 7poonts or more above its OR and likely to be 11.01 or under – which are the best runners currently in this catagaory? Anyone got a list of say the top 20/30 or so in the betting with OR V PRR – it would make interesting reading would it not? I think I will incorprate this into my stats that I am working on.
#280
December 8th, 2009 13:59
I agree entirely – anybody who is NOT on Mr Pointment at that price is, in my opinion, crazy!!
If he lines up, he will have to have a massive massive chance.
In 2001 Amberleigh House won the Becher
3 years later, in 2004, he won the National
That same year Silver Birch won the Becher.
3 years later, in 2007, Silver Birch won the National.
That same year, Mr Pointment won the Becher.
3 years later, in 2010…..
#281
December 8th, 2009 17:20
Really hoping to see Arbor Supreme on friday (same race as mon mome won), looks the bast handicapped horse in the race and his stamina should play a major part. A win and i think he would be my new favourite for the GN
Have to agree with Mr Pointment being a massive price and is now off avery nice mark, entered in the welsh national and i would think he is national bound under his new trainer, will he hit the season trends though?
Few negative stats against HB, not sure if the handicapper may have got him, his last 2 runs have been on ground much softer than ideal. I thought he ran a cracker at Cheltenham and in the becher he jumped brilliantly all the way, bar one fence. i would think he’s more likely to show better form in the spring when the ground dries out a bit more
#282
December 8th, 2009 18:10
Venetia Williams, on Mon Mome,
“He’s come out of it fine and the race didn’t quite pan out as I’d thought. I don’t think the ground was quite as testing as it looked like it was going to be and in fact, for the first circuit, they didn’t actually go very quick, which was why he was able to bowl along in the front rank. Ruby (Walsh, on Denman) and various others took the decision when they headed off down the back to press on and the pace quickened quite significantly, and we got outpaced. It’s going to be very tough for him now as he’s gone up to 161, so he’s going to be top-weight in handicaps. I’ve got him in a novice hurdle as it’s difficult now to find races to take him to.The Welsh National is a possibility, but it’s going to be tough where ever we go. All roads lead to Aintree in April.”
‘TC’, also can’t wait for that cracking chase at Cheltenham on Friday. Is AP on AS or is it ASAP!
#283
December 8th, 2009 18:54
Re: Mr Pointment
I’d try him in some type of headgear to keep him interested
Fellow Old Vics, both COD & BA have been transformed by headgear & VV wears it too
Would like to see some kind of run/form first though – he hasn’t been out for 10 months but is in Welsh National
Stayer
My thoughts on TT exactly – I think we both agreed way back when
Just thought it was interesting that no-one has mentioned him for a while
#284
December 8th, 2009 19:06
Ewok & Daniel Edwards would Mr Pointment actually be taking his chance in the National. Apart from the Exchanges I don’t see him priced up, or heard anything from official quarters. Pablo warned us earlier about the Exchanges saying that if you phone in or e-mail them they’ll literally put the horse up the and price it up.
At least I think that was what Pablo was hinting at (can’t find the post.)
#285
December 8th, 2009 19:18
Would be surprised if AS doesnt run friday, having said that AP already booked to ride Kia Kaha another of JP’s runners. Paul Nicholls has the tother one entered, but i would think he’ll probably head straight to the welsh national instead which could pave the way for Ruby to ride AS if not i would think Townend will take the ride
Another entry friday is Trabolgan – a somewhat forgotton horse despite winning the hennessy with only 7 chases under him
#286
December 8th, 2009 19:19
ASAP has a good ring to it though!!
#287
December 8th, 2009 19:20
Pablo Tricky Trickster is a seven year old (when the next national runs, I mean) he vastly inexperience is official rating is 129 a false favourite at the moment. Possol is entirely different matter same age but vast more experience and a rating of 145.
Trouble is do you want to make an exception for him or would you rather just back those that meet the stats as you probably have quite a few.
#288
December 8th, 2009 19:22
Systemsman
Almost as important as RPR – OR is Season’s RPR – OR
Only 5/19 haven’t produced or equalled their best RPR from 1st Sept onwards – these are:
Best – Season – Horse
163 – 141 – Royal Athlete
153 – 123 – Bobbyjo
164 – 128 – Papillon
152 – 145 – Red Marauder
156 – 150 – Hedgehunter
My spreadsheet is not up-to-date but I will post RPR – OR after weights out
#289
December 8th, 2009 19:25
Tricky Trickster OR is 149, really cant have him winning the national and can’t help but feel that he would have been far better off staying in NTD’s hands. Really should be giving him more exerience over fences
#290
December 8th, 2009 19:28
Sorry stand corrected TC but the rest of what I said is valid
#291
December 8th, 2009 19:28
Neil – I’m not looking to back TT at all
Agree that Possol is different – I know he’s young but also he is French-bred and some of these seem to get much more experience at such a relatively tender age
The past 4 Welsh National winners have all been French-bred at 6 or 7 whereas, with one or two exceptions, most previous winners were 8 or 9
#292
December 8th, 2009 19:35
Actually the other two recent 7 year olds to win Welsh National were Edmond 1999 (French Bred & Henry Daly = Possol) & Silver Birch 2004 (Nicholls = TT)!!
#293
December 8th, 2009 20:24
I sure somebody on here said about doing a list of the top 20/30 in the betting with OR and RPR, (or did I dream it), this seems like an excellent idea so using the list in the oddschecker I put up earlier and assuming that Mon Mome on OR of 161 will be top weight witn 11-10 here are the first 10 in the list. Age will be at the age when the national is running. (Included is the best RPR going left handed in a chase.)
Tricky Trickster: Age 7, OR 149, Weight 10-12, RPR 150,(LH RPR Same)
Niche Market: Age 9, OR 148, Weight 10-11, RPR 154,(LH RPR 151)
Black Apalachi: Age 11, OR 155, Weight 11-03, RPR 164,(LH RPR 158)
Vic Venturi: Age 10, OR 154, Weight 11-02, RPR 158, (LH RPR Same)
Backstage: Age 8, OR 148, Weight 10-11, RPR 154, (LH RPR Same)
Comply Or Die: Age 11, OR 154, Weight 11-02, RPR 160, (LH RPR Same)
Galant Nuit: Age 6, OR 133, Weight 10-0(oh 4), RPR 133, (LH RPR Same)
Big Fella Thanks: Age 8, OR 150, Weight 10-13, RPR 156, (LH RPR 153)
Possol: Age 7, OR 151, Weight 11-0, RPR 160, (LH RPR 148)
Hello Bud: Age 12, OR 142, Weight 10-5, RPR 145, (LH RPR same)
#294
December 8th, 2009 21:39
Great list Neil and there is value to be had
Tricky Trickster – defending handicap mark, 0 runs
Niche Market – looks good prospect
Black Apalachi – defending handicap mark, 0 runs
Vic Venturi – tad high in weights, respected but not for me at the moment
Backstage – defending handicap mark, 0 runs from September
Comply Or Die – booked for 2nd again or can he go one better?
Galant Nuit – behave not enough class & Eider prospect
Big Fella Thanks – defending handicap mark, 0 runs
Possol – very interesting, too young?
Hello Bud – probably exposed
Only 2 horses have won since 1990 with < 4 runs in a season and both were classy horses coming back from injury (Royal Athlete 3rd Gold Cup – none of the above anywhere near that level on form & Miinnehoma – won RSA, 3rd Welsh National)
The only 2 horses that make any appeal to me from that list are Niche Market (great on paper) and COD (been there, done it etc)
Trying to protect a mark has been done before but the trainers have still got them out before the end of November
Surely the best prep for the National is to run horses to get them race-fit? It’s 4.5 miles, no?
#295
December 8th, 2009 21:50
Not finished yet just taking a rest. Will put more up tomorrow. Unless someone wants to finish it off. Are the weights correct?
#296
December 8th, 2009 21:56
Tricky Trickster: Age 7, OR 149, Weight 10-12, RPR 150,(LH RPR Same)
Niche Market: Age 9, OR 148, Weight 10-11, RPR 154,(LH RPR 151)
Black Apalachi: Age 11, OR 155, Weight 11-04, RPR 164,(LH RPR 158)
Vic Venturi: Age 10, OR 154, Weight 11-03, RPR 158, (LH RPR Same)
Backstage: Age 8, OR 148, Weight 10-11, RPR 154, (LH RPR Same)
Comply Or Die: Age 11, OR 154, Weight 11-03, RPR 160, (LH RPR Same)
Galant Nuit: Age 6, OR 133, Weight 10-0(oh 4), RPR 133, (LH RPR Same)
Big Fella Thanks: Age 8, OR 150, Weight 10-13, RPR 156, (LH RPR 153)
Possol: Age 7, OR 151, Weight 11-0, RPR 160, (LH RPR 148)
Hello Bud: Age 12, OR 142, Weight 10-5, RPR 145, (LH RPR same)
Think that’s right – one or two changes
#297
December 8th, 2009 22:04
Thanks Pablo!
#298
December 8th, 2009 23:00
Was looking at the same info myself today using oddschecker and Racing Post. I think we will find it more interesting when we also have the next 20 in the list to compare with (didnt get any further myself as I was tempted to look up a few much lower in the Oddschecher list (didnt do the LH bit).
Arbour Supreme Age 8, OR 142, Weight 10.05, RPR 148 (LH?)
Gon To Lunch Age 10, OR 149, Weight 10.12, PPR 159 (LH?)
Notre Pere Age 9, OR 167, Weight top if runs, RPR 173 (LH?)
Mr Pointment Age 11, OR 141, Weight 10.04, RPR 163 (LH?)(+22 dif between OR and best RPR!)
………………
Nich Market does look good if he stays on OR 148.
Hello Bud fits all the trends but is only +3 dif between OR and RPR but can still win a race after weights day.
#299
December 8th, 2009 23:31
Think its unlikely NP will run, would like to have already seen Mr Pointment run this season, i think he’ll only have 2-3 runs before the national.
Dream Alliane has a RPR of 150 and OR 142, his hennessy 2nd clearly took a lot out of him, that 2nd has proved to be a very good performance to one of the best horses in sometime (he carried 7lb more than CB + a year younger)
AS also has an entry in a staying hurdle on sunday, i’m beginning To think he’ll follow hedgehunter’s route and stay over hurdles before running in the bobbyjo in feb, as i said previously i think he could be a late one to hit the trends
#300
December 8th, 2009 23:37
Think it’s important to point out that 2/3 or more of the GN horses since 1991 have had an RPR-OR >= 5
Like most pointers it has to be used in context
Older horses in decline will tend to have a bigger RPR-OR difference (Lacdoudal?) – the question is are they ever likely to reproduce their best?
#301
December 8th, 2009 23:39
I do try and take in whats being written on here, and somebody suggested a left handed R P R. That is not the only feature of Aintree National course it’s also flat (level) and galloping. Should we also be taking these into account?
#302
December 9th, 2009 00:27
admin – is it possible just to get a page up just for the stats, in orer for us to relate to it? There are so many to focus on, and we dont to be missing a key stat out
cheers
TC
#303
December 9th, 2009 09:39
OR / RPR ; It needs checking but after this years GN I found that 16/16 had recorded an RPR 7lbs more than their OR in their last 8 chases. 15/16 had recorded a life time best RPR in their last 8 chases. Papillon hadn’t but still recorded a RPR 11lbs more than his GN OR.
#304
December 9th, 2009 10:12
OR/best ever RPR of recent placed horses;
2004
Clan Royal 134/147
Lord Atterbury 130/143
Montys Pass 153/162
2005
Royal Auclair 153/162
Simply Gifted 135/142
It Takes Time 140/161
2006
Hedgehunter 156/170
Clan Royal 140/151
Nil Desperandum 137/149
2007
Mckelvey 136/146
Slim Pickings 140/147
Philson Run 137/143
2008
King Johns Castle 141/152
Snowy Morning 145/157
Slim Pickings 147/150
2009
Comply Or Die 154/158
My Will 152/166
State Of Play 150/165
#305
December 9th, 2009 10:41
I can’t stress enough how carefully RPR-OR must be used. For example – look at last year’s race.
RPR-OR – Odds – Horse
18 – 16 – L’Ami
18 – 100 – Fundamentalist
16 – 33 – Southern Vic
16 – 66 – Idle Talk
16 – 80 – Eurotrek
15 – 14 – STATE OF PLAY
15 – 100 – Cerium
15 – 200 – Arteea
14 – 8 – MY WILL
14 – 100 – Reveillez
13 – 16 – Darkness
12 – 8 – Rambling Minster
11 – 33 – Snowy Morning
11 – 66 – Ollie Magern
11 – 11 – Black Apalachi
10 – 33 – Battlecry
10 – 50 – Knowhere
10 – 200 – Kelami
9 – 20 – Offshore Account
8 – 100 – Zabenz
7 – 100 – MON MOME
7 – 14 – Big Fella Thanks
7 – 50 – Cloudy Lane
7 – 20 – Parsons Legacy
——————————–
6 – 16 – Irish Invader
6 – 33 – Cornish Sett
6 – 40 – Chelsea Harbour
…………………………..
5 – 100 – Preists Leap
5 – 33 – Hear The Echo
5 – 28 – Himalayan Trail
4 – 14 – COMPLY OR DIE
4 – 50 – Stan
4 – 20 – Kilbeggan Blade
3 – 33 – Can’t Buy Time
3 – 22 – Brooklyn Brownie
3 – 100 – Fleet Street
2 – 40 – Silver Birch
1 – 66 – Golden Flight
0 – 7 – Butler´s Cabin
0 – 66 – Musica Bella
If you take the RPR-OR cut off at 7 (16/16) then 13 horses drop out. If the cut off is at 5 (18/18 – OR not available for Mr Frisk’s National on RP site) then a further 3 are omitted – leaving 24 horses left in.
Some of the horses with RPR-OR > 10 were horribly exposed or didn’t get their ground or hadn’t produced much during the season or didn’t have the class or key race experience.
For me, the single most interesting RPR-OR from last year’s race was that of Butler’s Cabin because he was 7/1 favourite and RPR-OR was 0 and, therefore, one to avoid.
#306
December 9th, 2009 10:42
Should read…
“If you take the RPR-OR cut off at 5 (18/18 – OR not available for Mr Frisk’s National on RP site) then 13 horses drop out. If the cut off is at 7 (16/16) then a further 3 are omitted – leaving 24 horses left in.”
#307
December 9th, 2009 11:14
I think I understand what you are saying Pablo. I don’t think you can use RPR>OR on it’s own, but that list does show the winner passing what I think is a ket stat; RPR>OR +7 bringing that down to +5 if the horse is on an OR in the 150′s. And it does depend on how long ago they achieved an RPR>OR +5/7lbs.(L’Ami being a case in point)
The only two horses that got anywhere near the winner in the past few GN’s with a RPR/OR less than 6lbs were two who had already ran a blinder in the GN, COD and Slim.
#308
December 9th, 2009 11:19
Seagram RPR>OR +5 off OR148 so may be RPR>OR +5 should be stat(on the safe side).
#309
December 9th, 2009 11:21
Ignore past Seagram post, RPR>OR +11.
#310
December 9th, 2009 12:41
Are we sure that Mom mome handicap mark is 161 because I am looking at my Weekender Big Race Entries page and for Mom mome it says for Welsh National Mom mome handicap mark 160 weight 11-12.
#311
December 9th, 2009 12:44
Niche market is set 12 pound below on 148 so he checks out.
#312
December 9th, 2009 12:59
Yes but the handicapper has said that we will not lower MM’s mark below 161 for the GN however poorly he performs this season
COD ran off 152 at the Cheltenham Festival last season after a couple of poor runs but was back to his 154 GN rating at Aintree
#313
December 9th, 2009 13:06
Re Mr Pointment – My Will wasnt quoted by any of the firms before his first run last season, yet he went off 7/1 CF.
He was quoted on Betfair though at 330/1
even if Mr Pointment doesnt make the gig, at £2 at 280 odd to 1, i dont feel like I have lost anything!
#314
December 9th, 2009 16:53
Looking forward to Friday’s race at Cheltenham
Mon Mome, Over The Creek, D’Argent & Royal Auclair the last four winners – all fancied for the GN at some point or ran well in the GN
The one that cathes my eye though is not a likely GN contender and that’s According To Pete
The form of the Paddy Power is working out well and ties in with the race at Ascot that The Last Derby won (Shining Gale & Seven Is My Number won next time out, Hold Em 3rd in Paddy Power, Hello Bud not disgraced since, Gone To Lunch 5th in Hennessy).
Joncol (behind Paddy Power winner Tranquil Sea earlier in the season won in Ireland recently); Hold Em 3rd to uphold the Last Derby form; Poquelin well-fancied for the Boylesports; Ballyfitz won over hurdles).
According To Pete should prefer the longer trip.
Anyone agree/disagree?
#315
December 9th, 2009 17:03
I agree Pablo – Ive been sniffing around this one all week . he ran well to finish 5th in the paddy power and ive a hunch he could go close on friday . not sure how he stacks up stat wise but i too im intrigued by this one and he could develop into a live one…
#316
December 9th, 2009 19:17
The chase on friday hasnt produced many great national types in the last 10 years or so – bar MM. Not many winners of friday’s chase have actually completed the GN trip, most have been PU or fallen
#317
December 9th, 2009 21:16
…To conitinue my list I have the next ten. Remember we are assuming Mon Mome is top weight and his OR is 161. Age will be the age of the horse in the new year. RPR is the best wether left or right handed with the highest left handed RPR also recorded.
Don’t Push It: Age 10, OR 155, Weight 11-04, RPR 159 (LH RPR Same)
Mon Mome: Age 10, OR 161, Weight 11-10, RPR 166 (LH RPR Same)
Character Building: Age 10, OR 145, Weight 10-08, RPR 150 (LH RPR Same)
Notre Pere: Age 9, OR 167, Weight will drop by 6 pound if he runs, RPR 173 (LH RPR Same)
Nine De Sivola: Age 9 ,OR 135 Weight 10-0 (oh 2), RPR 146 (LH RPR Same)
Ballytrim: Age 9, OR 132, Weight 10-0 (oh 5), RPR 139 (LH RPR 127)
Companero : Age 10, OR 140, Weight 10-03, RPR 148 (LH RPR Same)
Garde Champetre : Age 11, OR 156, Weight 11-05, RPR 160 (LH RPR 160?) (The question mark is because he earned it on the cross country route at Cheltenham and although Cheltenham is left handed I not competely sure if the race the other way for that race.)
Killyglen : Age 8 ,OR 151 ,Weight 11-00 , RPR 153 (LH RPR Same)
Northern Alliance: Age 9, OR 147, Weight 10-10 RPR 151 (LH Same)
#318
December 9th, 2009 23:14
The next Ten are:
Gone To Lunch: Age 10, OR 149, Weight 10-12, RPR 159(LH RPR Same)
My Will :Age 10, OR 151, Weight 11-00, RPR 166 (LH RPR Same)
Irish Raptor : Age 11, OR 135 Weight 10-00 (oh 2), RPR 145 (LH RPR Same)
War Of Attrition: Age 11, OR 153, Weight 11-02, RPR 173 (LH RPR Same)
Snowy Morning: Age 10, OR 149, Weight 10-12, RPR 167 (LH RPR 159)
Cane Brake: Age 11, OR 150 Weight 10-13, RPR 161 (LH RPR Same)
Butler’s Cabin :Age 10 OR 135, Weight 10-00 (oh 2) , RPR 147 (LH RPR Same)
Hennessy : Age 9, OR 138, Weight 10-01, RPR 143 (LH RPR 141)
According To John: Age 10 , OR 130, Weight 10-00 (oh 7), RPR 151 (LH RPR Same)
Rambling Minster : Age 12 , OR 149, Weight 10-12, RPR 155 (LH RPR Same)
#319
December 9th, 2009 23:43
Heres a bonus lot upto Treacle.
Can’t Buy Time : Age 8 ,OR 141 Weight 10-04, RPR 146 (LH RPR 139)
Parson Legacy: Age 12, OR 143 Weight 10-06, RPR 153 (LH RPR Same)
Finger Onthe Pulse :Age 9, OR 137 Weight 10-00, RPR 150 (LH RPR Same)
Silver Birch :Age 13, OR 138 Weight 10-01 ,RPR 150 (LH RPR 150)
King John Castle : Age 11, OR 145 Weight 10-08, RPR 157 (LH RPR Same)
Offshore Account: Age 10, OR 141 Weight 10-04, RPR 156 (LH RPR 140)
Treacle : Age 9, OR 130 Weight 10-00 (oh 7), RPR 138 (LH RPR 133)
#320
December 10th, 2009 12:20
Could someone post up the RPR-OR of the last 16 winners.
RPR wise, are we talking about their best ever RPR or the one on the day.
Any news/views on Character Building.
Any views on King Johns Castle and Offshore Account.
#321
December 10th, 2009 12:30
AS is a non runner tomorrow, fully expect to run sunday in Ireland, a few to keep an eye on though in that chase with Trabolgan and another interesting runner pomme tiepy
#322
December 10th, 2009 13:25
Thanks for the work Neil – very helpful. I presume we should be very cautious of a best RPR gained some time ago (how far back would we go to be able to ignore it – +12months, 18months, 2years, 30months?)Any views?
Who stands out so far (and meets the the main trends)and who can we exclude (unless they win a big race) even at this stage?
#323
December 10th, 2009 14:09
Miinnehoma – it’s the best RPR before the GN in any chase race
Year – Best RPR – RPR-OR – Horse
1991 – 160 – 12 – Seagram
1992 – 158 – 5 – Party Politics
1994 – 160 – 7 – Miinnehoma
1995 – 163 – 8 – Royal Athlete
1996 – 170 – 18 – Rough Quest
1997 – 157 – 8 – Lord Gyllene
1998 – 157 – 10 – Earth Summit
1999 – 153 – 11 – Bobbyjo
2000 – 164 – 25 – Papillon
2001 – 152 – 12 – Red Marauder
2002 – 144 – 8 – Bindaree
2003 – 148 – 9 – Monty’s Pass
2004 – 154 – 15 – Amberleigh House
2005 – 156 – 12 – Hedgehunter
2006 – 146 – 8 – Numbersixvalverde
2007 – 150 – 12 – Silver Birch
2008 – 155 – 16 – Comply Or Die
2009 – 155 – 7 – Mon Mome
All RPRs were set in same season (or equalled in same season) except:
Papillon & Red Marauder 2 seasons before
Rotal Athlete & Hedgehunter 1 season before
#324
December 10th, 2009 14:57
About Best Rpr it would depend on the horse, most I’ ve posted are fairly recent. However I usually cautious with any horse who is coming back from injury or who had at least a complete season off.
#325
December 10th, 2009 18:18
So on the whole, 14/18, the best RPR has been obtained or equalled in the GN winning season (16/18 this season or the one before)well worth noting – thanks Pablo.
+ 5 (OR V RPR)looks like the min cut off point (if playing safe) with +7 or more being 17/18.
Not looking at trends but just OR/RPR below:
Hello Bud does not look quite so good (so far) on +3 of OR142 (good OR)
Niche Market just gets in on +6 of OR148
Gone To Lunch +10 – looks good of OR149
Parson Legacy +10 – looks very good of OR143
King John Castle +12 – looks very good of OR145
Offshore Account +15 – looks very good of OR141
#326
December 10th, 2009 18:47
Having looked up a few more OR/RPR’s for leading contenders I cant help thinking that the top four on our poll look awefuly good – when you include trends(I can make a case for each of them) – have we got it right early this year (we dont want a one horse wonder like Rambo last year do we)?
8 Gone to Lunch
8 Niche Market
5 Arbor Supreme
5 Hello Bud
Is this up to date?
It will be fascinating in future years to see if our early poll (up Dec31st) is as acuurate as the later ones. I actually think it may be possible to sort the “wood from the trees” better at this time of year than later with all the so called newspaper experts opinions thrown in + weights etc etc.
#327
December 10th, 2009 19:09
As I posted earlier my findings were that 16/16 GN winners had posted an RPR>GNOR +7 in one of their last 8 chases;
Miinnehoma RPR 160 / OR153
Royal Athlete 163 / 155
Rough Quest 170 / 152
Lord Gyllene 157 /149
Earth Summit 157 / 147
Bobbyjo 153 / 142
Papillon 151 / 140
Red Marauder 152 / 140
Bindaree 144 / 136
Montys Pass 148 / 139
Amberleigh House 154 / 139
Hedgehunter 156 / 144
Numbersixvalverde 146 / 138
Silver Birch 150 / 138
Comply Or Die 155 / 139
Mon Mome 155 / 148
#328
December 10th, 2009 19:43
“TC Says:
admin – is it possible just to get a page up just for the stats, in orer for us to relate to it? There are so many to focus on, and we dont to be missing a key stat out”
I’m open to this idea but I’d like to know if this is something that other contributors would be interested in. If I could have another two or three posts saying this is something they would like I will open up a thread but I will have to leave the copying/adding of the relevant stats to the original contributors.
Also, this thread is starting to get slightly too large so I will be looking to open a new main thread in the next couple of days – perhaps once I have had views on the need for a stats thread.
Thanks
Darren
Admin
#329
December 10th, 2009 19:47
To Pablo and crisp 73,
Many thanks for that information.
The 150′s look popular – 10 or so.
#330
December 10th, 2009 21:28
Has anybody seen a price on Gold Cup 3rd. Turpin Green for the GN. Oddschecker have over a 100 or so priced but no sign of Turpin.
He hasn’t run yet in a GN but was down to carry 11st.10lb. in the ’08 GN. So now with OR 142 he should get in with 10st.05lb.
He fits every stat I can find except one. He has not won beyond 21f. but he still has time and I think the genes to do it.
Both Red Marauder and Lord Gyllene won their first 24f. chase in Sept. and Dec. that season.
#331
December 10th, 2009 21:29
I am ready with my six pre new year list.
As more data becomes availible this list could grow/change but lets see if the winner’s amongst my half dozen.
Niche Market
Gone To Lunch
Black Apalachi
My Will
War Of Attrition
Hello Bud
#332
December 10th, 2009 21:44
“crisp 73 says:
December 10, 2009 at 7:09 PM
As I posted earlier my findings were that 16/16 GN winners had posted an RPR>GNOR +7 in one of their last 8 chases.”
Thanks Crisp 73 great info – missed first time. Only wished I had a free subcrription to the RP site (changed since last year).
#333
December 10th, 2009 22:12
Noticed Neil S has My Will in his to 6.
OR151 RPR 166 +15! OR 151 = 11.00 this year (if Mon Mome on OR 161 is top weight 11.10)? 4lbs less than last year perhaps?
My Will – has a great profile (good enougth to do well in Gold Cup [5th and 12th]/Bet Fred Gold Cup[3rd and 3rd]/Racing Post Chase [3rd]/Henessey [7th and 5th]and Grand National 2009 [3rd] some profile – can he improve this year? Carried 11.04 in GN on OR152. Any views out there – will the handicapper clobber him with extra weight (I see no reason why)?
#334
December 10th, 2009 22:28
He ran well behind The Listener in Ireland. While most people ( i think) on here was watching Casey Jones and War . He is nearly Gold cup material but if the weight remains near enough to whats predicted then he could run a big race.
#335
December 10th, 2009 22:36
Admin a page for Stats could help us to go over the stat and help us to get a clearer view.
#336
December 10th, 2009 22:42
Yes I know he’s dosage weak, Ben. I’ve great respect for the Dosage, but the as been Dosage weak winners before like last year. However to compensate for being dosage weak I’ll be looking for a big price.
#337
December 11th, 2009 16:14
Hi everyone,
Please bring your thoughts to a close on this thread as we are reaching the maximum size we want for the main thread.
Also, we just have one additional request for a stats page – we need one or two more for it to seem like it would be widely used.
Thanks
Darren
Admin
#338
December 11th, 2009 17:06
Systemsman, I’m in the same boat as you. I scribbled down those RPR/OR figures last April.
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