Grand National Tips 2010 (9)
Posted on March 24th, 2010 in Grand National 2010
Please now use this thread for all your tips and comments on the Grand National 2010.
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This post has 613 comments
#1
March 24th, 2010 10:01
Kicking off thread 9 (9!) with Speedyseagull’s votes and the subsequent rolling league table:
6pts Backstage
5pts Eric’s Charm
4pts Arbor Supreme
3pts Big Fella Thanks
2pts Maljimar
1pt Vic Venturi
24 Arbor Supreme (5/6)
17 Erics Charm (5/6)
15 Snowy Morning (4/6)
14 Big Fella Thanks (3/6)
12 Hello Bud (3/6)
9 Backstage (2/6)
6 Maljimar (3/6)
6 Ballyfitz (1/6)
6 Dream Alliance (1/6)
5 The Package (2/6)
5 Ellerslie George (2/6)
5 Black Appalachi (1/6)
4 Mon Mome (2/6)
4 State of Play (1/6)
3 Vic Venturi (2/6)
3 Ollie Magern (1/6)
2 Chelsea Harbour (1/6)
2 Niche Market (1/6)
2 Razor Royale (1/6)
1 Beat The Boys (1/6)
#2
March 24th, 2010 11:22
6pts Hello bud
5pts Eric’s charm
4pts Arbor supreme
3pts Dream alliance
2pts Beat the boys
1pt Can’t buy time
28 Arbor supreme(5/6)
22 Eric’s charm(5/6)
18 Hello bud(3/6)
15 Snowy morning(4/6)
14 Big fella thanks(3/6)
9 Dream alliance(1/6)
9 Backstage(2/6)
6 Maljimar(3/6)
6 Ballyfitz(1/6)
5 The package(2/6)
5 Ellerslie george(2/6)
5 Black apalachi(1/6)
4 Mon mome(2/6)
4 State of play(1/6)
3 Viv venturi(2/6)
3 Ollie magern(1/6)
3 Beat the boys(1/6)
2 Chelsea harbour(1/6)
2 Niche market(1/6)
2 Razor royale(1/6)
1 Can’t buy time(?)
#3
March 24th, 2010 11:25
And still not ruled out
State of play
Don’t push it
Snowy morning
#4
March 24th, 2010 11:25
Revisiting the topic of horses currently ‘well in’ at the weights (i.e. those whose current OR after Cheltenham and MGN is higher than their allocated GN OR), there are currently 10 horses well in (have looked as far down list as 10.03):
1)Razor Royale 8lbs
2)Erics Charm 6lbs
2)The Package 6lbs
4)Big Fella Thanks 5lbs
5)Vic Venturi 4lbs
6)Black Apalachi 3lbs
6)Arbor Supreme 3lbs
8)Knowhere 2lbs
8)Faasel 2lbs
10)Whinstone Boy 1lb
This list will only change for any horses having a final prep run after 21st March.
#5
March 24th, 2010 11:31
On the other side of the coin, these are the 10 horses now worst treated at the weights;
1) Royal Rosa 17lbs
Ollie Magern 5lbs
Officier de Reserve 5lbs
2) Mr Pointment 11lbs
3) Joe Lively 7lbs
4) Irish Raptor 6lbs
4) Hello Bud 6lbs
4) Cerium 6lbs
4) Oodachee 6lbs
10) Beat the Boys 4lbs
10) Ballyfitz 4lbs
Lots of NTD horses on the list of those badly in – so don’t be at all surprised if Razor Royale has Paddy Brennan on board and proves to be the pick of the bunch.
#6
March 24th, 2010 11:32
Top 6 list to follow shortly – final deliberations underway…
#7
March 24th, 2010 11:43
I wonder if Paddy Brennan will be on Irish Raptor; NTD has been waxing lyrical about this horse for months…when talking about the race he always says ‘don’t forget Irish Raptor’. Maybe we need a altenative quest, the ‘who will Paddy Brennan ride’ one.
#8
March 24th, 2010 11:54
Maureen
Think there’s goona be alot of people backing NTD horses off the back of cheltenham.
tempted to back more than the 2 in my list,but not moving away from the trends.
#9
March 24th, 2010 11:55
no i’m not a Arsenal supporter!
#10
March 24th, 2010 11:59
I for one not surprised the NTD staying chasers on the downgrade. He runs them too often and too quickly and IC and Baby Run had had light campaigns/long rest and did the business at Chelt. Only Irish Raptor (of his GN horses) seems lightly run…and it was the only one I considered for my top 6!!
Arrgh boys n girls dont forget to up the number of lists!!!
28 Arbor supreme(5 out of
22 Eric’s charm(5/8)
18 Hello bud(3/8)
15 Snowy morning(4/8)
14 Big fella thanks(3/8)
9 Dream alliance(3/8)
9 Backstage(2/8)
6 Maljimar(3/8)
6 Ballyfitz(1/8)
5 The package(2/8)
5 Ellerslie george(2/8)
5 Black apalachi(1/8)
4 Mon mome(2/8)
4 State of play(1/8)
3 Viv venturi(2/8)
3 Ollie magern(1/8)
3 Beat the boys(1/8)
2 Chelsea harbour(1/8)
2 Niche market(1/8)
2 Razor royale(1/8)
1 Can’t buy time(?)
#11
March 24th, 2010 12:02
It should read
28 Arbor Supreme (5 out of 8)!!!
And if people have time and for a bit of fun how about a bottom six of those least likely…ie 6pts to the horse that would never win unless we had a Foinavon ‘incident’ etc etc…??
Will post one in a bit when have sifted the rubbish…
#12
March 24th, 2010 12:13
Think Hello Bud should read (4/8) too…see NTD got it in too many lists!!! hehe give it a break Nige!!!
#13
March 24th, 2010 12:22
Ok funtime. The 6 least likely:
Lennon 6pts
Joe Lively 5pts
State Of Play 4pts
Priests Leap 3pts
Mr Pointment 2pts
Air Force One 1pt
In someways harder as you can betcha 1 of the 6 will ‘run a blinder’ but reasons..
Len: Just there for G Wiley who likes a runner BUT he is a good supporter of the game.
Joe L : Weight form stats kitchen sink…
S of P : 1 run in Nov and PU but past GN experience could prove me wrong.
Priests L : form stats kitchen sink..
Mr Pointment: One word…Wilson…
AFOne: P3UF… behave Charlie…
Please, if any of the above in your top 6…dont take it personally!!!
#14
March 24th, 2010 12:31
My mates (unfounded am sure if the legal people are reading ) rumour that Lennon is the bookies sponsored horse this year…ie esp the 1 race day out of the year punters…in Liverpool…a horse called Lennon….you with me??? lol
#15
March 24th, 2010 12:35
Sorry…think i cocked the list up!
#16
March 24th, 2010 12:38
Its cool Andy..typos etc and doing it in a rush (like me having to drop the screen and appear busy doing ‘real work’….)…they happen!!
#17
March 24th, 2010 12:39
I would have;
Made in Taipan
Deutschland
Piraya
All before those 6 Nick, especially Mr P, Air Force One and State of Play, and probably Priests Leap too.
If Mr P was trained by the same person, had ran the same race in the GC, but was owned by Mr X and Mrs Y rather than the Wilsons, would you still say he had no chance?
#18
March 24th, 2010 12:48
I think RPR-OR >= 7 for 18/19 winners (>=5 19/19) on raceday “suggests” that all were well-handicapped
But how many were officially well-in after weights out:
Comply Or Die (after Eider handicap win)
Silver Birch (potentially after Cheltenham 2nd in X-Country handicap)
Hedgehunter (potentially after Bobbyjo – although it’s a conditions race so not 100% likely)
Lord Gyllene (after Midlands National 2nd)
Rough Quest (after RP victory & Gold Cup 2nd)
Miinnehoma (won handicap at Newbury on comeback run after weights out)
Seagram (won handicap at Cheltenham)
So that’s 7/19 or 3/5, whichever you prefer.
#19
March 24th, 2010 12:48
Good point Dan but only if the horse had had proper campaing and preps…as because it is the Wilsons ‘only Chelt GC and National for our day out’ ethos then nope…as have said…if they wanted to preserve its mark am sure a spin or two over hurdles to get it ‘match fittish’ would at least show genuine intent so to speak…
So am saying Yes if Mr P elsewhere and ok+ prep runs…would have been on my ‘long list’ to win/place….!!
#20
March 24th, 2010 12:57
That wasn’t clear…am saying would have wanted to see Mr P run at least twice pre GC (even if hurdles) then could have factored in that run although on a like for like basis you have to say you would put Cerium above it if it gets a run…but same reservations ie nothing else done/considered apart from sit in the stables and just turn up to show off our colours (Wilsons) on the big day/s….
We can but speculate but they must have a ‘local’ track (they own half of Kent so lets say Folkestone or 1 of London tracks) to give em a hurdles spin/prep…if they of course were ‘considered’ owners who understand that to run horses in just the 2 ‘most difficult/hardest’ chases in the fixture list only is bordering on ‘cruel’….but it is just my view…
#21
March 24th, 2010 13:04
And as they are both (Mr P and Cerium) on the downgrade and unless a miracle GN run I would lay you anything you like they will both be at the sales at the soonest opportunity …which is their (Wilsons) perogative but kinda sums them up…
Will also lay you odds they purchase another high marked ‘crock’ at the sales and stuff it away with no runs and turn it out at GC and GN in 2011…name your price!!
#22
March 24th, 2010 13:05
Daniel quiet request (I know you’re sensitive to loud voices, lol).
When are we getting your list? Yesterday was just a reminder of previous list is that right?
#23
March 24th, 2010 13:13
No Showlad, yesterday was the list!!
#24
March 24th, 2010 13:21
Nick – So should your reasoning not say “no prep” rather than “Wilson”
?
#25
March 24th, 2010 13:23
I’ve been sat in the garden with a beer looking through recent winner stats – back to 1997. I know everybody knows the trends we use but over these 12 races there are some striking facts ref prep runs and days since last run that maybe we’re overlooking.
Winners with less than 4 prep runs 0
4 prep runs 1
5 prep runs 4
6 prep runs 7
The amazing Comply or Die got away with 4 prep runs so I will now definitely be looking closer at those with 5-6 races this season
Days since last run on GN date
40 – 50 days 3
30 – 40 days 2
20 – 30 days 7
Of the 7 that had raced less than a month before, 5 had done so within 25 days (2 had raced at Cheltenham). This suggests a recent run as a positive.
More to come as RPR/OR race day intersting as well.
#26
March 24th, 2010 13:31
SELECTION HAD AN HARD JOB TRYING TO RANK THEM BUT HERE GOES:
Big Fella Thanks -6
Snowy Morning -5
Arbor Supreme -4
Eric Charm -3
Ellereslie George -2
Vic Venturi -1
Others that just missed out are:
Backstage, Madison du Berlais, Hello Bud, Maljimar
32 Arbor supreme(6 out of 9
25 Eric’s charm(6/9)
20 Snowy morning(5/9)
20 Big fella thanks(4/9)
18 Hello bud(3/9)
9 Dream alliance(3/9)
9 Backstage(2/9)
7 Ellerslie george(3/9)
6 Maljimar(3/9)
6 Ballyfitz(1/9)
5 The package(2/9)
5 Black apalachi(1/9)
4 Mon mome(2/9)
4 State of play(1/9)
4 Viv venturi(3/9)
3 Ollie magern(1/9)
3 Beat the boys(1/9)
2 Chelsea harbour(1/9)
2 Niche market(1/9)
2 Razor royale(1/9)
1 Can’t buy time(?)
#27
March 24th, 2010 13:41
Is there any chance that Chief Dan George will get in? And if he did, where does he stand stats wise? He’s a lot closer to the cut off point than I thought.
#28
March 24th, 2010 13:43
I seem to recall CDG being a long way below the usual cut off on weights day – he was outside the top 80 for sure. Perhaps somebody could fill me in?
If I had to price him getting a run, I would say 8/1….which makes his price of 33/1 with the crooks on the highstreet pretty ridiculous!
#29
March 24th, 2010 13:49
Daniel’s Current Top 6 so it’s on this thread:
Snowy Morning — 7.58 (Perfect Score)
Ellerslie George – 7.08
Chief Dan George – 6.58
Hello Bud ——– 6.45
Beat The Boys —- 6.38
Vic Venturi —— 6.23
Madison Du Berlais – 6.13
The astute amongst you will notice that there are 7 horses listed there – CDG wont get in bar a miracle.
Interestingly 3 of those 6 have what plenty of people would regard as ‘too much weight.’
If you go a little further back, 14/17 scored 6.35 or more AND were in the top 6.
The 3 exceptions are;
2001 – RM – 4.40
1996 – Rough Quest – 5.18
1994 – Minnehoma — 5.55
So, for the sake of completeness, thos between 5.00 and Madison Du Berlais are;
Air Force One 6.05
Arbor Supreme 6.05
Eric’s Charm 6.05
Ollie Magern 5.85
Dream Alliance 5.83
Notre Pere 5.73
Mon Mome 5.63
My Will 5.63
Joe Lively 5.60
Ballyiftz 5.58
Chelsea Harbour 5.53
Silver Birch 5.45
Dont Push It 5.43
Cloudy Lane 5.28
Niche Market 5.23
Black Apalachi 5.20
Character Building 5.18
Razor Royale 5.05
#30
March 24th, 2010 14:18
6 Snowy Morning
5 Black Apalachi
4 Character Building
3 Arbor Supreme
2 Big Fella Thanks (jut can’t see it winning with Nicholls factor!)
1 State of Play
35 Arbor supreme(7 out of 10)
26 Snowy morning(6/10)
25 Eric’s charm(6/10)
22 Big fella thanks(5/10)
18 Hello bud(3/10)
10 Black apalachi(3/10)
9 Dream alliance(3/10)
9 Backstage(2/10)
7 Ellerslie george(3/10)
6 Maljimar(3/10)
6 Ballyfitz(1/10)
5 The package(2/10)
5 State of play(2/10)
4 Mon mome(2/10)
4 Vic venturi(3/10)
4 Character Building (1/10)
3 Ollie magern(1/10)
3 Beat the boys(1/10)
2 Chelsea Harbour(1/10)
2 Niche Market(1/10)
2 Razor Royale(1/10)
1 Can’t Buy time(1/10)
#31
March 24th, 2010 14:22
6/ state of play
5/ big fella thanks
4/ snowy morning
3/ mon mome
2/ hello bud
1/ erics charm
same 6 as before bar 1. mon mome in and character building out, although positions have changed.
could i be a pain and ask somebody with an extra brain cell to mine to update list, as i a’int got a clue.
maybe mr mannion may think that about my top selection,but there you go wacky.
#32
March 24th, 2010 14:25
Interesting that despite neither SM or AS having run since the last vote, they appear to have swapped places!
#33
March 24th, 2010 14:52
35 Arbor supreme(7 out of 11)
30 Snowy morning(7/11)
27 Big fella thanks(6/11)
26 Eric’s charm(7/11)
20 Hello bud(5/11)
10 Black apalachi(3/11)
9 Dream alliance(3/11)
9 Backstage(2/11)
7 Ellerslie george(3/11)
7 Mon mome(3/11)
6 Maljimar(3/11)
6 Ballyfitz(1/11)
5 The package(2/11)
5 State of play(2/11)
4 Vic venturi(3/11)
4 Character Building (1/11)
3 Ollie magern(1/11)
3 Beat the boys(1/11)
2 Chelsea Harbour(1/11)
2 Niche Market(1/11)
2 Razor Royale(1/11)
1 Can’t Buy time(1/11)
No need to single people out Mandie…I think you will find all the stats boys (ie number of prep runs) would rule S of P out…I backed it last year and if had same prep as 08/09 esp after last years run in the big one then would have been a shoe in…1 prep run with a P…not easy to fancy… and on my 6 least likely I did say a) thats the one that could surprise and b) it isn’t personal…just a bit of fun/taking a view…
Dan yes if the Wilsons had given Mr P a proper prep then a serious consideration…they dont/never will …so thats that though they have confounded me by entering both Mr P and Cerium in the Bet365 (The Whitbred for those of us old enough…) but noted they are now I think 9 and 5 lbs ‘worse in’ on their GN marks than what given for Bet365…!!
#34
March 24th, 2010 14:54
Early days with our top 6 list but can we say that 5 of the final overall top 6 looking likely?? No clear 6th choice yet…
#35
March 24th, 2010 14:55
List updated with Mandie’s top 6.
Mandie
March 24th, 2010 14:22
6/ state of play
5/ big fella thanks
4/ snowy morning
3/ mon mome
2/ hello bud
1/ erics charm
35 Arbor supreme(7 out of 11)
26 Snowy morning(7/11)
27 Big fella thanks(6/11)
26 Eric’s charm(7/11)
20 Hello bud(4/11)
11 State of play(3/11)
10 Black apalachi(3/11)
9 Dream alliance(3/11)
9 Backstage(2/11)
7 Ellerslie george(3/11)
7 Mon mome(3/11)
6 Maljimar(3/11)
6 Ballyfitz(1/11)
5 The package(2/11)
4 Vic venturi(3/11)
4 Character Building (1/11)
3 Ollie magern(1/11)
3 Beat the boys(1/11)
2 Chelsea Harbour(1/11)
2 Niche Market(1/11)
2 Razor Royale(1/11)
1 Can’t Buy time(1/11)
#36
March 24th, 2010 14:57
Sorry State of Play adjustment:
35 Arbor supreme(7 out of 11)
30 Snowy morning(7/11)
27 Big fella thanks(6/11)
26 Eric’s charm(7/11)
20 Hello bud(5/11)
11 State of play(3/11)
10 Black apalachi(3/11)
9 Dream alliance(3/11)
9 Backstage(2/11)
7 Ellerslie george(3/11)
7 Mon mome(3/11)
6 Maljimar(3/11)
6 Ballyfitz(1/11)
5 The package(2/11)
4 Vic venturi(3/11)
4 Character Building (1/11)
3 Ollie magern(1/11)
3 Beat the boys(1/11)
2 Chelsea Harbour(1/11)
2 Niche Market(1/11)
2 Razor Royale(1/11)
1 Can’t Buy time(1/11)
#37
March 24th, 2010 14:58
Ellerslie George still has the Presenting cross to bare. I wish I had time to read all threads going back to the start of the season. It’s been a fascinating journey. From memory I think Hello Bud and Snowy have been there right from the start.
#38
March 24th, 2010 15:01
Hello Bud has certainly been in the mix since his Scots National win, but I seem to recall Snowy being thrown around only at the start of this season and only being a major fancy since around christmas sort of time, probably when viable alternatives weren’t as forthcoming as people perhaps expected….I could be wrong.
#39
March 24th, 2010 15:06
Nick, BA has only been in 2 of 11 lists
#40
March 24th, 2010 15:11
you have to say, that the top 5 or 6 maybe popular with our views,but you could easily pick more than one doubt with each of them. not looking for perfect score/fit, but there is not one as said before that you feel confident to steam in big time. funny year and the best bet although not backable now is mon mome e/w at 5 places nrnb in my opion.
#41
March 24th, 2010 15:19
Have checked back to 05 and these are the placed horses and number of prep runs…not sure it shows any trends but think 3 and over seems to be needed..
09 (year) 2nd (place) 3 (prep runs)
3rd 2
4th 2
08 2nd 4
3rd 5
4th 4
07 2nd 3 (did have a July run too)
3rd 5
4th 1
06 2nd 4
3rd 3
4th 6
05 2nd 6
3rd 4
4th 6
#42
March 24th, 2010 15:25
Good shout Mandie re Mon Mome. I only worry both of top 2 come out and it gets 3lb extra although VW in the RP yesterday said she doesnt think top weight would make any diff…
I could give loads of reasons why my top 6 could well fail big style so none of them am over confident and there are a couple in it for value.
Maljimar was 41st last year and was being backed down on the expectation of it getting a run and missed out. They have aimes it at the race but am ‘worried’ no run since Dec tho that was a staying on 3rd in 31f+ Cross Country at Chelt not far behind Garde Champetre who we know is more than useful!!
#43
March 24th, 2010 15:31
TY Irish R…
35 Arbor supreme(7 out of 11)
30 Snowy morning(7/11)
27 Big fella thanks(6/11)
26 Eric’s charm(7/11)
20 Hello bud(5/11)
11 State of play(3/11)
10 Black apalachi(2/11)
9 Dream alliance(3/11)
9 Backstage(2/11)
7 Ellerslie george(3/11)
7 Mon mome(3/11)
6 Maljimar(3/11)
6 Ballyfitz(1/11)
5 The package(2/11)
4 Vic venturi(3/11)
4 Character Building (1/11)
3 Ollie magern(1/11)
3 Beat the boys(1/11)
2 Chelsea Harbour(1/11)
2 Niche Market(1/11)
2 Razor Royale(1/11)
1 Can’t Buy time(1/11)
#44
March 24th, 2010 15:32
thats my point nm, at this stage you would want and expect to be 85-90% confident of your top couple with a few other fancies, but i cant say i am more than 60% on any this year. yet anyway, but will change now.
#45
March 24th, 2010 15:34
Last year I was very very confident…and ended up with none in the first four
this year I am totally, 100% unconfident…
#46
March 24th, 2010 15:43
Lol both the above…will only back 4 of my 6 anyhow (allowing for all 6 lining up on the day) and did have 1 a/p nibble on King JC but thats almost been chucked in to the recycling bin!!
He ran last week over hurdles and was 2 from the back….with Chelsea Harbour BEHIND him….so zero confidence in that 1 a/p bet Far more in my treasured a/p folder is Silver By Nature for the 2011 race….but still cant get my head round what Phil S will do if Denman runs re the handicap!!!!!
#47
March 24th, 2010 15:55
Nick – you wanna hope Denman does run, because Silver By Nature has a rating in the mid 150s already doesnt he??! So even some ‘creative’ running before the GN would surely see him on 11_00 plus, perhaps even as much as 11_05
#48
March 24th, 2010 16:06
Am assuming Silver By will run a couple of just ok races (think they fancy a tilt at Scots Nat) before next year so might slip down 3 or 4 lbs but if Denman does run thay cant give him 11-10 and say Mon Mome (going by pre GC this year ratings as my comparison ie 182-148) 9st 4…. they would have to compress the h/cap and give ‘the rest’ more weight which a) puts them worse in than Denman and b) for max publicity really encourages Denman to run…
Some days I dream about being offered Phil S’s job…but that would have my brain in melt down…!!
#49
March 24th, 2010 16:14
Still would rather my fancy be ‘worse in ‘ v 1 and better in v 38…even if the 1 is Denman!!
#50
March 24th, 2010 16:27
If Mon Mome is topweight this year then he will be the only horse to have benefitted more than marginally from a bit of generosity from Mr Smith (other than some out of form types)
Also he will again have succeeded in encouraging precisely zero horses to run that wouldn’t have otherwise – last year Cloudy Lane topweight for example
The weights compress themselves because:
a) the prize money is so big so more horses running in the 140s and 150s – these are generally handicappers and not Gold Cup types
b) most sensible trainers don’t want their precious Gold Cup types to die too young at Aintree – so topweight in 150s rather than 160s – Mr Smith thinks he’s encouraging horses to run but when it comes to racetime he isn’t – a load of old pony Smithy
The thing is if Mon Mome is topweight he will be 6lb better in than Smith said he would have been last year – what would have COD done with 6lb less last year (got an awful lot closer I would have thought)?
Pretty much everything below Mon Mome should be running off 6lb less (I feel sorry for COD’s connections and most previous winners’ too who didn’t get the MM treatment)
Too much meddling by PS imo – time to give someone else a shot imo – 10 years in any job too long these days
#51
March 24th, 2010 16:29
But in his defence it has only taken him 10 years and Denman might run next year
#52
March 24th, 2010 16:31
Back in the public library doing last minute research for us all bofer my two posts tonight. My top four are easy then it gets very hard indead but its most likley that one of the top four will win. Still have the problem of will weights go up 3lbs and at the end of the day I’am going to base my selections on yes they will tonight so will not support anything over 11.05 – now on 11.02.
#53
March 24th, 2010 16:31
Would connections be likely to keep Madison in to keep the weight down for The Package?
#54
March 24th, 2010 16:33
Possibly Maureen – although different owners
#55
March 24th, 2010 16:35
I’d imagine they all come to ‘arrangements’ over such matters…..
#56
March 24th, 2010 16:36
Had to make a few changes after Cheltenham and the withdrawals but here are my dirty half-dozen:
6 – Arbor Supreme
5 – Comply or Die
4 – Snowy Morning
3 – Character Building
2 – Hello Bud
1 – Mon Mome
#57
March 24th, 2010 16:55
Table update with the Stayer’s ‘Dirty Half-Dozen’….
The Stayer
March 24th, 2010 16:36
Had to make a few changes after Cheltenham and the withdrawals but here are my dirty half-dozen:
6 – Arbor Supreme
5 – Comply or Die
4 – Snowy Morning
3 – Character Building
2 – Hello Bud
1 – Mon Mome
6 – Arbor Supreme
5 – Comply or Die
4 – Snowy Morning
3 – Character Building
2 – Hello Bud
1 – Mon Mome
41 Arbor supreme(8 out of 12)
34 Snowy morning(8/12)
27 Big fella thanks(6/12)
26 Eric’s charm(7/12)
22 Hello bud(6/12)
11 State of play(3/12)
10 Black apalachi(2/12)
9 Dream alliance(3/12)
9 Backstage(2/12)
8 Mon mome(4/12)
7 Ellerslie george(3/12)
7 Character Building (2/12)
6 Maljimar(3/12)
6 Ballyfitz(1/12)
5 The package(2/12)
5 Comply or Die (1/12)
4 Vic venturi(3/12)
3 Ollie magern(1/12)
3 Beat the boys(1/12)
2 Chelsea Harbour(1/12)
2 Niche Market(1/12)
2 Razor Royale(1/12)
1 Can’t Buy time(1/12)
#58
March 24th, 2010 17:11
It’s real funny this year, 3 weeks away from the race and the horse that tops the top 6 fancies list is a horse that we don’t even know will line up.
Does anyone know when the next dec stage is for the Irish National? i would have thought because of the weight they will carry in the Irish National that both horses will miss the Irish and go for the national, but you never know, i don’t have a penny on Arbor yet because i am afraid of getting my fingers burnt
#59
March 24th, 2010 17:19
OK – my top 6 is as follows:
6pts – State of Play
5pts – Arbor Supreme
4pts – Erics Charm
3pts – Snowy Morning
2pts – Air Force One
1pt – Character Building
Which makes the running totals (updated for myself and Stayer):
46 Arbor supreme(9 out of 13)
37 Snowy morning(9/13)
30 Eric’s charm(8/13)
27 Big fella thanks(6/13)
22 Hello bud(6/13)
17 State of play(4/13)
10 Black apalachi(2/13)
9 Dream alliance(3/13)
9 Backstage(2/13)
8 Mon mome(4/13)
8 Character Building (3/13)
7 Ellerslie george(3/13)
6 Maljimar(3/13)
6 Ballyfitz(1/13)
5 The package(2/13)
5 Comply or Die (1/13)
4 Vic venturi(3/13)
3 Ollie magern(1/13)
3 Beat the boys(1/13)
2 Chelsea Harbour(1/13)
2 Niche Market(1/13)
2 Razor Royale(1/13)
2 Air Force One (1/13)
1 Can’t Buy time(1/13)
#60
March 24th, 2010 18:08
Just playing devil’s advocate but our top 6 shows:
Two from W Mullins – can they both be realistic GN contenders from the same stable? Or are they much of a muchness? Mullins has said that Snowy is his number one but we favour Arbor (although on votes cast they are equal at 9/13 – the points thing is debatable)
One from PN – who so far has shown poor form in GN for such a good NH trainer
Eric’s Charm – who is 12 and wasn’t mentioned before winning two small-field Class 2 races against poor fields
Hello Bud – who is 12 and hasn’t sparkled this year (but might have the NTD magic – but then Bindaree was only 8 and Earth Summit a Welsh National winner – as TC has posted the Scottish
has been a woeful guide (HB beat Novices and plodders) – only ES but he did it at a very young age and subsequently won the Welsh)
State Of Play – who as Nick M states was pulled up on only start and a lot has to be taken on trust from the trainer – he bigged up both SOP and the hugely disappointing Cappa Bleu before the Hennessy – however stable is in top form
Is it really this open?
Bet it won’t be after the event…
#61
March 24th, 2010 18:30
i really am struggling for a stand out this year. Prep runs have proven to be so vital over the years, many horses in this years national have 2-3 prep runs for the national and therefore haven’t clocked up enough mileage. i do think that is a major negative against Arbor Supreme. Has Hello Bud lost his way? have to admit i did expect more from him at cheltenham and i do worry as to how good his Scottish national win was. The obvious choice it would seem is Snowy Morning but i just can’t see him winning, although placing. Erics Charm looks like this years Rambo and will struggle at Aintree jumping out to the right all the time.
Horses that just miss out ‘statswise’ need to be considered as all stats need to be flexible… and theres never been this many over the 11 stone barrier
#62
March 24th, 2010 19:19
18 >=11’0 in 2008
16 >=11’0 in 2009
20 so far this year – might be more if weights rise – but could be more withdrawals
Shape of the race could be similar to past 2 years
Guess it comes down to are those below 11’0 good enough?
#63
March 24th, 2010 19:38
i’d be surprised if either of the top 2 run in the national, especially NP, he looks like he’s been plotted out for next year but is more than likely to stay till the last minute. If thats to happen it looks as if most of the runners will be on 11’0+
#64
March 24th, 2010 19:45
My 6 least likely to win bar a miracle are:
Made in Taipan
Lennon
Preists Leap
Deutschland
Chelsea Harbour
Irish Raptor
#65
March 24th, 2010 20:09
V. interesting Pablo re the current top 6. As said could give loads of reasons why all my personal top 6 have enough negatives to make me sound as if making pre emptive excuses!!
Prep runs is a double edged sword. My view on NTD (see the Chelt comparisons) is he over runs/runs too quickly his staying chasers…apart from IC and Baby R (few previous runs) the rest were dire…and on good ground too…
The only horse to place in last 5 years with 1 prep run was Philson Run 4th in 07 at 100/1. It did have great stats (previous Eider and I think Mids Nat winner etc) and his 1 run was mid feb mid div at Haydock. Having just watched a replay he was given a peach of a ride and got right in to contention at 2nd Canal only for Simon to fall right in front of him at 2nd Valentines and lost a conservative 8-10 l…He was 4th beaten 17l so we could say either yes min prep but great run or ‘if only had another race or 2 in his legs’ might have ‘got home’ better…
So nnot impossible for SofP to run well and 2 of last years first 4 only had 2 prep runs BUT think that can be ‘got away with’ on good ground…if its soft (as forecast pointing to) then stamina really counts….
#66
March 24th, 2010 20:16
Pablo – is it really this open??
Er, yes, I would say it is!!
Im thinking of ignoring every stat in the book, and trying to find a horse who jumps well, will stay, has a touch of class. If he has a good weight relative to his ability, all the better.
Sometimes it pays to go back to the start.
#67
March 24th, 2010 20:18
First Post:
Systemsman’s “Black Book system” selections (works best in the week of the race):
Note these are not my own selections – they will come in Poat 2 later tonight. Its is a very easy liitle sytem that can often pinpoint the winner or the odd runner you may have missed out. You need three stars to win.
3 Star Results for last ten years:
2009 No – price (why we did not get the winner).Winner 2stars
2008 Yes. Winner 3 stars
2007 Yes. Winner 3 stars
2006 No – distance. Winner 2 stars
2005 Yes. Winner 3 stars
2004 Yes. Winner 3 stars
2003 Yes. Winner 3 stars
2002 Yes. Winner 3 stars
2001 Yes. Winner 3 stars
2000 No – distance. Winner 2 stars
7/10 70% accurate (In the three lost years the winner had two stars and had a 1/2/3 in his last three races). Each year there is a small, short list with 3 stars by race day (much smaller than you would think).
3 star runners Grand National 2010.
Runners who end up on over 11.05 will automatically be excluded from this list (based on current weight).
Dream Alliance
Erics Charm
Arbor Supreme
Hello Bud
Notice how close this list is to the “top six” list.
3 stars with weeknesses in my opinion (you can find big holes in the profile of those below)
The Package
Chief Dan George
Dont Push It
Backstage
Razor Royle
Majimar
I guess if I had time we should have looked at 2 stars with 1/2/3 in their last three runs but there is only so much time you can spend on this (Snowy Morning would fall into this catagory).
I may have missed one in which case I will post it up if I ever find one. I will recheck this list between now and the GN race week and try to look at 2stars + 1/2/3 in their last three races as well so take this as a rougth draft for the moment.
#68
March 24th, 2010 20:18
Going to have a cup of tea then will post my top six.
#69
March 24th, 2010 20:20
Looks like a mixture of rain and cloudy days over next 16 days
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/forregdaily.aspx?postcode=Liverpool%2cMerseyside&selected=0
#70
March 24th, 2010 20:23
Not sure re Phil S. thread above. What I will say is that he has done a great job if we look at the runs of the horses the year after they won GN. CoD and Hedgehunter were both 2nd Montys Pass 4th and No6Val 6th…..that to me is superb handicapping. I have a peronsl view on Hedgehunter (which might apply to Mon Mome next year) that his 2nd in the 06 GC (after weights for 06 GN)…even if it was poorish GC…meant he lumped more than a fair weight in 07….MM might run v well even if weights rise…but will not get a break in ’11 because of the GC 3rd this year…
Phil cant be blamed for the amount of ‘good’ handicappers within a narrow band that enter these days. Thats down to the fact that the course (another debate… not for now) has been perhaps made easier than it should be so ‘real’ jumping is not quite the factor it should be…
You tell em Ginger!!!
#71
March 24th, 2010 20:40
Can somebody explain why Arbor Supreme can win the GN given;
1 – his Irish National run last year
2 – his Thester run this season.
I need convincing….somebody convince me!!
#72
March 24th, 2010 20:42
Theystes I meant obviously!
#73
March 24th, 2010 20:50
Think it might be the run in the Irish Nat. instead that might be the problem Dan….
#74
March 24th, 2010 20:52
As in this years…although I do remember Ebony Jane doing both in 5 days and was 4th to Minnehomma after placing in the Irish Nat…
#75
March 24th, 2010 21:13
Hello everyone, had a great cheltenham, but wondering if its a good thing or bad thing to miss cheltenham if you going in a race over 36 furlongs jumping 16 obstacles (14 twice) making 30 fences, against upto 39 competitors. The rule of thumb for ante post backers is to find a horse who misses cheltenham, but is it correct.
Here is the record going back to 1989 Little Polveir. (Let the record speak for itself).
2009 Mon Mome missed,
2008 Comply Or Die missed,
2007 Silver Birch went (cross country),
2006 Numbersixvalverde missed,
2005 Hedgehunter missed,
2004 Amberleigh House missed,
2003 Monty’s Pass missed,
2002 Bindaree went (William Hill),
2001 Red Marauder missed,
2000 Papillon missed,
1999 Bobbyjo missed,
1998 Earth Summit missed,
1997 Lord Gyllene missed,
1996 Rough Quest went (Gold Cup),
1995 Royal Athlete missed,
1994 Miinnehoma went (Gold Cup)
1992 Party Politcs missed,
1991 Seagram went (Ritz (now William Hill)),
1990 Mr Frisk went (Kim Muir),
1989 Little Polveir missed.
So thats 6 out of 20 who went to cheltenham, I would take it that its advantage to miss cheltenham.
#76
March 24th, 2010 21:16
I’ve just been looking at the list of runners in the paper the day after weights were announced and, a few years ago, before I started looking at the race in more depth I would have gone out and backed Snowy Morning, Character Building, Dooneys Gate, Gone to Lunch, State of Play, Ellerslie George, Ballyfitz, Equus Maximus and Maljimar ie every horse aged 9 or 10 carrying less than 11st. Wonder if the winner is there this time?
#77
March 24th, 2010 21:17
Ok this is the jury vote fom Systemsman after very careful thought.
I belive that there are two oustanding runners this year and one stand out more tha all others. My top three have been in my top six all season and reamin as does DA who I just cant let go of jet despite the weights.
1. Arbor Supreme
OR 142(for national)now 145 – perfect
Weight 10.08 (possibly 10.11) – perefect
TS 145 – perfect
Won at 29f and 30f – perfect
2nd and 4th at 28f twice – perfect added to above
3rd to Big Zeb at 21f lost by 16.5f carring 11.12 over only 21f. Top class
Beat BA.
Won Han Chase 19K and 23K (Grade C)
Last prep race – overtook whole field and fast finishing 2nd at over only 21f (Grade B).
Dosage perfect.
Class/Speed /Stamina this one has it all.
Will have no problem keeping with the fast early pace and should be there at the end.:
Record over big distance (last first)
29f 136K 14th – Irish National
29f 19K 1st
30f 23K 1st
28f 13K 4th
28F 16K 2nd
Can carry a big weight and win.
2.Snowy Morning
Cant decide since christmas if its SM aor HB but SM now.
Knows the course
Prepared for this race
Record speaks for itself
3. Hello Bud
Scots National winner
Has he got someting in reserve _ I think he may have.
So my ponts are:
Arbor Supreme 6 points
Snowy Morning 5 points
Hello Bud 4 points
Dream Alliance 3 points
One of the above should win
Erics Charm 2 points
Now its really hard and coul b any of 5 or so
Niche Market 1 point (as good as anya sI dont think we will neda 6th runner!)
New total added to post 57
51 Arbor supreme(10 out of 14)
42 Snowy morning(10/14)
32 Eric’s charm(9/14)
27 Big fella thanks(6/14)
26 Hello bud(7/14)
17 State of play(4/14)
12 Dream alliance(4/14)
10 Black apalachi(2/14)
9 Backstage(2/14)
8 Mon mome(4/14)
8 Character Building (3/14)
7 Ellerslie george(3/14)
6 Maljimar(3/14)
6 Ballyfitz(1/14)
5 The package(2/14)
5 Comply or Die (1/14)
4 Vic venturi(3/14)
3 Niche Market(2/14)
3 Ollie magern(1/14)
3 Beat the boys(1/14)
2 Chelsea Harbour(1/14)
2 Razor Royale(1/14)
2 Air Force One (1/14)
1 Can’t Buy time(1/13)
#78
March 24th, 2010 21:21
Come on then Systems – you have him as your number 1 pick…explain those two runs to me….convince me to back it!
#79
March 24th, 2010 22:23
Who is everyones top 3 best jumpers entered in this years national.
#80
March 24th, 2010 22:24
Dan – I think AS run in the Thyestes should be put down to the ground, as for the Irish national, i’m not too sure, but i dont think it was a help thats he’s very much a hold-up horse. looked as if he may have had a bit of trouble over the first few fences as they were very closely packed together at the back of the field. i’ve got a lot of doubts about him for the national this season, but he put up a personal best last time out and is an improver. Preparation hasnt been ideal this year and personally if he was mine i’d be inclined to wait a year and get a good few runs into him. Having said that Harry Findlay has got the crazy idea of running Denman next year, so they’ll have to take their chance with AS this year. Got him covered AP, but Mr Mullins has made some strange decisions this year. His price probably wont change too much, as i think AP is likely to be on CBT
Cant help but feel Mr Hourigan could have made the ‘national trends horse’ a lot easier!!
#81
March 24th, 2010 22:42
Not going to go into too much detail over my top 6, other than the fact I think Ollie Magern is very well handicapped and put up a very good run at Cheltenham, jumps well and I cant see the trip being a problem. the top 2 are the horses I’ve got least doubts about for putting up a decent account of themselves in the national
6pts Ollie Magern
5pts Snowy Morning
4pts Hello Bud
3pts Mon Mome
2pts Arbor Supreme
1pt Chelsea Harbour
53 Arbor supreme(11/15)
47 Snowy morning(11/15)
32 Eric’s charm(9/15)
30 Hello bud(8/15)
27 Big fella thanks(6/15)
17 State of play(4/15)
12 Dream alliance(4/15)
11 Mon mome(5/15)
10 Black apalachi(2/15)
9 Backstage(2/15)
9 Ollie magern(2/15)
8 Character Building (3/15)
7 Ellerslie george(3/15)
6 Maljimar(3/15)
6 Ballyfitz(1/15)
5 The package(2/15)
5 Comply or Die (1/15)
4 Vic venturi(3/15)
3 Niche Market(2/15)
3 Beat the boys(1/15)
3 Chelsea Harbour(2/15)
2 Razor Royale(1/15)
2 Air Force One (1/15)
1 Can’t Buy time(1/15)
#82
March 24th, 2010 22:46
“What I will say is that he has done a great job if we look at the runs of the horses the year after they won GN. CoD and Hedgehunter were both 2nd Montys Pass 4th and No6Val 6th…..that to me is superb handicapping.”
I would disagree – he gave the horses a very difficult task and they were always beaten by a lower weighted horse having carried a high weight – no stand-out skill involved at all – the RP ratings tell a similar story
COD won by 4 lenghts and was put up 15lb then lost by 12 lengths carrying 11’06
Hedgehunter won by 14 lengths and was put up by 12lb and lost by 6 lengths carrying 11’12
Numbersixvalverde won by 6 lengths and was put up by 11lb losing by 43 lenghts carrying 11’03
Monty’s Pass won by 12 lengths and was put up by 14lb and lost by 34 lengths carrying 11’10
Surely all it shows is that enough weight stops horses even course specialists at a specialist’s course?
Average increase for these = 13lb whereas Mon Mome is up only 7lb for winning by 12 lengths – this is not in keeping with previous years and is in my opinion down to either the ego of the man or pressure from outside to get that elusive good horse to run in the race. The race is still popular and attracts increasingly higher prize money – just leave it alone!
What is consistent is that all 5 of the above won the race with ease – which means he failed 5 times to stop an easy winner – and long may that last!
#83
March 24th, 2010 22:55
i havent got any fancy systems but heres my top 6
from seeing with my own eyes
1 big fella thanks
2 mon mome
3 black apalachi
4 viv venturi
5state of play
6 niche market
now
51 arbor supreme 10 15
42 snowy morning 10 15
33 big fella thanks 7 15
32 erics charm 9 15
26 hello bud 7 15
19 state of play 5 15
14 black apalachi 3 15
13 mon mome 5 15
12 dream alliance 4 15
9 backstage 2 15
8 character build 3 15
7 vic venturi 4 15
7 ellerslie george 4 15
6 maljimar 3 15
6 bally fitz 2 15
5 the package 3 15
5 comply or die 1 15
4 niche market 3 15
3 o;;ie magern 2 15
3 beat the boys 1 15
2 chelsea harbour 1 15
2 RAzOR ROYALE 1 !%
2 air force 1 1 15
1 cant buy time 1 15
#84
March 24th, 2010 22:57
damn took me so long t c got in b4 me srry ignore my league table
#85
March 24th, 2010 23:05
Sorry but here I go again…
Regarding Ollie Magern, TC
He hasn’t finished within 10 lengths of the winner in his past 27 races except in 4 tries at Wetherby in his first outing of the season in the Charlie Hall (a small field Conditions race not a handicap)
Don’t get me wrong he’s great at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall but seems to be a course specialist at Wetherby in the Autumn
#86
March 24th, 2010 23:18
to be honest i really dont have a stand-out, the reasons i like OM is a great jumper and looks like a longer trip will suit. thought his run at cheltenham was very encouraging. The reasons he hasnt been able to finish close over the past few years is the fact that Phil Smith hasnt given him much of a chance and had to continue racing in the graded races. Now, he looks like he’s finally been given that chance. i’ve got doubts over nearly all of them but he jumps well and should stay
#87
March 24th, 2010 23:31
ok ill have another go after my 6
53 arbor supreme 11 16
47 snowy morning 11 16
33 big fella thanks 7 16
32 erics charm 9 16
30 hello bud 8 16
19 state of play 5 16
16 mon mome 6 16
14 black apalachi 3 16
12 dream alliance 4 16
9 backstage 2 16
9 ollie magern 2 16
8 character building 3 16
7 vic venturi 4 16
7 ellerslie george 3 16
6 maljimar 3 16
6 ballyfitz 2 16
5 the package 2 16
5 comply or die 1 16
4 niche market 3 16
3 chelsea harbour 2 16
3 beat the boys 1 16
2 razor royale 1 16
2 air force 1 1 16
1 cant buy time 1 16
#88
March 24th, 2010 23:36
I hadn’t realised the price – agree enough encouragement in OM’s William Hill run not to be 150/1 or 200+ on Betfair
My aplogies I just assumed he’d be shorter than that
#89
March 24th, 2010 23:43
really looks like being soft going this year and cant get picture of b a sauntering home in bechers out of my mind but do think he has 2 or 3 pounds too much.bft goes well on soft and think he is well weighted and if he has made any sort of progress from last year will take all the beating.
#90
March 24th, 2010 23:44
p.s have lumped on both at 25s
#91
March 25th, 2010 00:12
IS Arbor’s 3rd to Big Zeb really being hailed as great form? Big Zeb never came off the bridle and was eased down to win by 17 lengths, he could have won by 35 lengths had Davy Russell wanted to! And the second that day View Mount Prince hardly looks a top class animal either. As for the weight all the top 5 carried level weight in that race.
He beat Black Ap but received 15lbs, 1 lb should = 1 length BA lost by 5 lengths so for me BA still the superior performance on ground he would have hated, must have been proper fast ground as I note Notre PU in the same race.
I don’t mind people quoting the pop pickers highlights of their fancies form but lets not give half facts to give a distorted view of how that form stacks up.
I still haven’t heard a legitimate reason for his flops in the Irish Nat and Thys. I’d love to be convinced as some are that this horse is ‘the one’ but looks more like Rambo hype all over again his last race he beat trees to finish second, I’m honestly not seeing a single good horse behind him in that field other than Treacle who obviously was on a bad day PU as fav.
If he skips the Irish national, we’ll know on the day I suppose as if he is the real deal McManus’ money will surely come by the wheelbarrow load and the price will tumble.
#92
March 25th, 2010 00:24
No Pip tonight, er I mean Rascal, I’ve got great expectations about that lad. I don’t know if he’s giving us the winner or a passage from Tom’s Brown School Days. Keep up the good work Rascal.
Will post my selections probably on Saturday, systemman I take it you’ll having two votes, a personal one and one from your little black book. Make sure its not the one with the telephone numbers in it, lol.
#93
March 25th, 2010 00:30
Question, Pablo I’ve found the old article you posted back in September about the 20+ chase runs and the number of prep runs needed for 3 miles 7 furlongs or more, but the link you put up then is broken, you don’t remember the full rules do you?
#94
March 25th, 2010 02:40
The blog is becoming a slanging match. Too many disputes, little statistical debate – please come back Crisp.
For what it’s worth, I was looking at ORs race day and lowest over last 12 winners was 136 (Bindaree). That should rule out Irish Raptor (135) & Hello Bud (134) but not sure anybodys listening anymore.
#95
March 25th, 2010 03:33
Hey Speedy – that’s a great weather forecast link. Looks like there’s gonna be heaps of rain up there. How quickly does the course dry out?
Thanks Pablo for reminding me of Chelsea Harbour, who was I believe 2nd in your list. I’d dismissed him early on but as there are so few “stand outs” this year, feel he should be given a little air time (esp as 2 of my leading fancies been withdrawn).
CH loves to get his toe in and judging by the Seaguls forecast, could well have his favoured conditions at Aintree. On 3rd Feb 2008 this horse beat Arbor Supreme by 7 lengths in a 28f race and under GN weights is in receipt of 18lbs from that day. Fits the 30/30 stat, will still be a 9 year old come race day and knows his way round the course having finished when a 7 year old carrying 11-2. Had 5 prep runs this season, a recent run (albeit a poor one) and keeps popping up on our lists.
OK, last few runs poor but we all dismissed Mon Mome last year for the same reason and then looked at the profile afterwards and said “how did we miss him”. Just putting a long priced alternative forward as all the leading contenders have holes in their profile.
#96
March 25th, 2010 06:23
Thai Mark, Irish Raptor OR is 141 & Hello Bud is 140. However I don’t want to be accused off starting a slang match, just a healthy debate.
#97
March 25th, 2010 07:57
Id love to see Denman run in 2011 just because i dont think he has a chance, looked past his best in the GC and IMO is regressing, will mean lots of value for other horses next year
#98
March 25th, 2010 08:40
Lets not get confused between a slanging match and having a debate/questioning other peoples posts – its all for the greater good. Like Neil, all I see is healthy debate so keep it up chaps
Will post my top 6 at the weekend. I too am coming round to the way of thinking that we should be looking at some of the longer priced runners.
Maljimar anyone? My only concern ois that his best form seems to be at Cheltenham, which is a very different track to Aintree. The lack of a win over 3m, can be ignored on the basis he has planty of form over at least 3m, including over 3m7f behind Garde Champetre
#99
March 25th, 2010 08:52
Found this on the betfair forum:
———————
Bobbyjo – Irish National winner 1st time over GN
Papillon – Irish National regular1st time over GN
Red Marauder – fell previous year’s GN
Bindaree – 4th previous year’s Topham
Monty’s Pass – 2nd previous year’s Topham
Amberleigh House – GN regular, Becher regular
Hedgehunter – fell prevous year’s GN
Numbersixvalverde – Irish National winner 1st time over GN
Silver Birch – fell prevous year’s GN, won Becher
Comply Or Die – GN virgin
Mon Mome – 10th previous year’s GN
COD the only won that hadn’t attempted GN fences or Irish National the previous Spring & he was entered for GN previous year but was injured
#100
March 25th, 2010 08:53
TC – good effort, but I can’t be having his (Arbor Supreme) Theystes run this year being down to the ground, when he has won before on heavy ground and when he came 3rd in the same race the season before on the same ground carrying virtually the same weight and off virtually the same mark (he was a 1lb higher second time round in both cases)
Thanks for your view on the Irish National – useful. Anybody know if I can watch that race online anywhere?
#101
March 25th, 2010 08:58
Hold on a minute…
Surely stats and assessment of form are both relevant? And both are subjective for me.
Which stats to use, which to ignore
Which pieces of form are relevant, which to ignore (RP ratings are subjective based around the horse that ran to its form – it’s an opinion)
It’s all about opinions and this is a forum – if we all agreed then there wouldn’t be 9 threads on this year’s GN fcs!!!
The more debate the better or we’ll get an Arbor love-in and Rambo II – end of rant.
#102
March 25th, 2010 09:05
Neil – I tried looking for those articles and couldn’t find them – can’t remember whether I printed them or saved them on laptop.
I’ll have another look but from memory it was something about exposed horses >20 runs over NH rules needing at least 5 runs to win a long distance chase run in the Spring (I think it was looking at the Eider, Scottish etc etc too)and horses with 13-20 runs needing 3 runs or more
I think older horses (11+?) needed 5+ runs too (not sure how far back the study went though)
#103
March 25th, 2010 09:07
DE – attheraces.com for Irish races
#104
March 25th, 2010 09:09
I don’t think this is a slagging match, it’s healthy debate!! You can only go so far with the stats and then you have to start being more subjective.
With regards Arbor Supreme’s Irish National run, have a look and see if he was ever put in the race. I remember thinking at the time (and posted on here ages ago) that it looked like he was given a pretty tender ride that day. For what reason I don’t know, but he did run much better at Punchestown next time when 3rd behind Ambobo and Vic Venturi. He was only getting 4lbs from Vic Venturi that day for a <2l beating but is set to get 12lbs from him in the National so is much better off.
In a year where there seems to be no stand-out/rock-solid candidate there most horses look to be carrying some doubts. That run in the Irish National was at face value disappointing, but to me he has done enough elsewhere to suggest he is capable of landing a blow in a race like the National. I guess those of us that like AS can see enough to suggest he could run well, while those that don't can pick enough holes in his form to put them off.
To me the same is true of Snowy Morning. Looks to have been trained for the race, hits the stats, has course experience etc but there are still a few doubts about his jumping at times and whilst he looks much better in than last year he's still 2lbs higher than when 3rd in 2008. Why will he fair better this year off a 2lb higher mark? Also, if you look through his form what do you see? Do you see a stayer that has been running well over inadequate trips or is this horse basically a two-and-a-half-miler? You can interpret his form either way!
These are the sort of questions that we need to try and answer in the next two weeks!!
#105
March 25th, 2010 09:12
Thanks Pablo.
Just to be clear – im not knocking AS – I kind of want to back him, but I want those two runs explained first!
#106
March 25th, 2010 09:18
Right, last night I said I was going to find a horse that would definitely stay, jumps well and has a touch of class…
In terms of staying power, I want a horse who has run beyond 3m4f and has stayed every yard of it.
By my reckoning, here is a list of the horses currently in the top 50 that in my opinion WILL (as far as you can be certain) stay;
NOTRE PERE
MON MOME
BLACK APALACHI
JOE LIVELY
VIC VENTURI
COMPLY OR DIE
NICHE MARKET
TRICKY TRICKSTER
CLOUDY LANE
DREAM ALLIANCE
MY WILL
SNOWY MORNING
BIG FELLA THANKS
STATE OF PLAY
BALLYFITZ
ERIC’S CHARM
KING JOHN’S CASTLE
ARBOR SUPREME
HELLO BUD
CERIUM
FLINTOFF
I make that 21….
Now, some will stay better than others (we’re all equal….just some are more equal than others)
Some aren’t on that list MIGHT stay, but we don’t KNOW they will. I’m not saying if a horse isn’t on that list it WONT stay either, but I think those are the only ones we know WILL stay, on the basis of what they have done on the track to date.
Does anybody feel I have missed anybody from my list? Alternatively does anybody feel there is anybody on there who won’t stay? VV is probably the one who I have been a bit lenient with, but he has ran ok in the Irish and looked like a stayer to me in the Becher on heavy ground. I think I’ve given Ballyfitz the benefit of the doubt too, on the basis that his Welsh National run this season was on heavy ground.
I thought it might be useful to get a list using everybody’s ideas and then remove those who don’t jump well, who aren’t good enough, who aren’t well handicapped and then see who we are left with.
Personally I want to ignore all the stats (just for a moment) and see if it brings up any different horses.
#107
March 25th, 2010 09:33
Well there are some in there that I have doubts about but I don’t want to be too controverisal! To me, Cloudy Lane and Cerium being would be doubtful stayers despite their top 6 National finishes. If Cloudy Lane had stayed he would have finished in the top 3 a few years ago.
I would probably have put Character Building in as he was 2nd to Butler’s Cabin in a Cheltenham 4-miler.
#108
March 25th, 2010 09:41
Stayer – Agreed about Cerium and Cloudy Lane…Last year was slowly run and as you say, CL’s chance was 2 years go…BUT I think it would be unfair to say they wont stay, more that others will stay better.
CB was another I tossed around…those 4 milers at Cheltenham are run pretty slowly I think and aren’t a real test as such. Plus he’s faded in a couple of races around 3m4f, so im not sure about him.
What do other people think about these 3, and any others for that matter?
#109
March 25th, 2010 09:50
Daniel,
I would say that 4m around Cheltenham is a proper test with all the undulations and the uphill finish.
#110
March 25th, 2010 09:51
I was referring more to the calibre of the race – I remember people picking wholes in Butlers Cabin’s credentials last year on that basis.
Maybe I am being harsh though….
#111
March 25th, 2010 10:02
Daniel,
I think the Festival 4-Miler is a better race than a lot of people give it credit for. Someone posted this up on another forum I look at a while back. The following horses all ran in the 4 miler as novices before going on to better things:
TIMBERA (Irish National winner)
POINT BARROW (Irish National winner)
BUTLER’S CABIN (Irish National winner)
NICHE MARKET (Irish National winner)
HOT WELD (Scottish National & Sandown Gold Cup winner)
HEDGEHUNTER (Grand National winner)
SILVER BIRCH (Welsh National, Beecher Chase, Grand National winner)
SUPREME GLORY (Welsh National winner)
TOPSHAM BAY (Dual Whitbread Gold Cup winner)
CELESTIAL GOLD (Hennessy winner)
MIKO DE BEAUCHENE (Welsh National winner)
GARDE CHAMPETRE (Cross Country supremo!)
HENNESSY (Sandown Gold Cup winner)
TRICKY TRICKSTER (AON Chase winner)
There are probably others too.
#112
March 25th, 2010 10:08
Ok, so lets put CB on the list too.
Who do we want to get rid of as dodgy jumpers?
I’ll start with SNOWY MORNING, BALLYFITZ and BIG FELLA THANKS.
#113
March 25th, 2010 10:18
Ballyfitz definitely! Can’t jump fences at pace at all. Not the biggest fan of Big Fella Thanks but i’m not sure i’d class him as a dodgy jumper though he has 2 unseats from 10 chases, which isn’t great. Snowy Morning i’m not sure about. 2 falls in 20+ chases isn’t too bad but he does make mistakes, and normally one pretty bad one each race. Jury still out on those two. Possibly of as much concern would be Notre Pere who’s jumping hasn’t been great this season and has 2 failures to complete from 5 chases since November.
#114
March 25th, 2010 10:25
Big Fella Thanks has a habit of throwing in a shocking jump in quite a few of his races. As you say, 2 unseated from 10 starts isn’t great but its the races where he has made bad mistakes, stayed on his feet, but ruled himself out of contention because of those mistakes that concerns me. Take a look at some of his runs last season, and this for that matter, to see what I mean.
Im a Snowy Morning fan, but I dont think there can be much dispute that he isnt a sound jumper, even if he does stay on his feet a lot!
Would be interested to hear what others think about Notre Pere. He’s had his problems this year injurywise, so wonder if it would be harsh to say he is a dodgy jumper on the basis of his form this year.
What do people think?
#115
March 25th, 2010 10:34
Also worth bearing in mind that NP has been running in G1 races over 3 miles during that time, Stayer, making fluent jumping all the harder.
#116
March 25th, 2010 10:49
Hello everyone for another year.
Last years winner Mon mome had no record of his female family so it was impossible to give him a correct reading.
With a couple of winners now in the last 10 years with no fashionable female line i think it shows that it must be a positive not to have too much speed or class in the female family.
This year there are a couple of stand outs regarding the breeding and a couple of well fancied runners with no chance of winning.
This system is still 100% in finding the final qualifiers for the national and i will post whether or not i have a full pedigree for each of the final qualifiers.
I will post details tonight
#117
March 25th, 2010 11:09
Hi Daniel- big fan of the ‘back to basics’ approach. I would go with the following:
Stayers (placed over 27f and dosage indicates stays): Madison, Notre, Mon M, Black A, Comply, Niche, Tricky, Dream A, My Will, Can’t BT, Snowy, AF One, State of Play, Chelsea H, Erics, Ollie M, Arbor, Maljimar, H Bud, Flintoff, Silver B, Officier DR.
Stayers that Jump (2 or less F / UR): Madison, Black A, Comply, Niche, Tricky, Dream A, My Will, Can’t BT, State of Play, Ollie M, Arbor, H Bud, Flintoff, Silver B, Officier DR.
And have class (C1 win if GB trained): Madison, Black A, Comply, Niche, Tricky, Dream A, My Will, Can’t BT, State of Play, Ollie M, Arbor, H Bud, Silver B.
Then if we can permit going back to the most basic trends:
Age 8-12: Madison, Black A, Comply, Niche, Dream A, My Will, Can’t BT, State of Play, Ollie M, Arbor, H Bud.
Weight under 11’5: Niche, Dream A, My Will, Can’t BT, State of Play, Ollie M, Arbor, H Bud.
Not a bad list of 8, and reasonably supportive of the stats work done so far.
#118
March 25th, 2010 11:18
Gammers,
Good work. I agree with virtually all of that but I would question whether Can’t Buy Time is a stayer though. Was travelling like a sure thing in the Cheltenham 4-miler last season before totally emptying and walking up the hill. If he got the trip he would have won that race.
It’s interesting that you mention Officier De Reserve. The horse used to be trained by Paul Nicholls and was placed in a Weslh National. He’s now with Venetia Williams and in her early-season stable tour she said he could be a National horse one day. Looks unlikely to get in this year but he’s on my shortlist for the Irish version.
#119
March 25th, 2010 11:21
Stayer – agree with you entirely about Officier De Reserve.
Good run in the Welsh a couple of years back as a very young horse and he just emptied in the final furlong. With a few more years under the belt, could easily get the trip.
One to watch for future years for sure.
#120
March 25th, 2010 11:22
“Neil S
March 25th, 2010 00:24
systemman I take it you’ll having two votes, a personal one and one from your little black book.”
No just the one personal vote which I have now made. However I have decided to go back to the Black Book System and work on the 3 stars + 2 stars who came 1/2/3 in one of their last 3 races (especiely if they fit the 30/30 stat)as this would have given us a 10/10 GN winners in a fairly short list so i think its worth the work. And its starts today. Will post the results when I have them.
#121
March 25th, 2010 11:40
Daniel,
That Welsh National run was indeed a very good effort for a 6yo. It’s such a tough race for a horse so young and it looks as though it may have taken him some time to recover. But he’s been switched to Venetia and she gave him 10 months off before running him in the William Hill last week. I though the horse ran ok as he was basically switched off at the back and ran on a bit towards the end. It will be interesting to see where they go. He’s unlikely to get in at Aintree and has been dropped a few lbs so is in the Irish National off 133. Hits a lot of the stats for that race so will be of interest if he goes for it.
#122
March 25th, 2010 11:47
Daniel Edwards and others – nice work this morning a great idea. I’am going to run your full list Daniel through the black book system (if not already inculded) so we can see if there are any coming up in both final lists. This will take the rest of the week.
Its difficlut as if we throw out dodgy jumpers like SM we may throw out the winner as everyone agrees he can fiddle his way around and has done so twice in the GN but I guess you do have to make some hard decisons at some point to get down to a managable list.
Gammers enjoyed your final list but I would as I have 4 from your 8 (and the reason I held onto DA and NM for the moment)- still worried I may have missed soemthing good so enjoying Daniel’s thred and will do my bit to add to it.
#123
March 25th, 2010 11:49
Gammers
nice list of 8,my will & ollie no win in last 10 chases though!
#124
March 25th, 2010 11:50
You and I both Stayer – agree re: the William Hill run. A good showing given he hadnt run for the best part of a year before!!
Just hope Denman doesnt run or he might be too far out of the handicap.
Hope he doesnt run too well in the Bet365 or the Irish – or he’ll be no sort of antepost price really!
#125
March 25th, 2010 11:53
Andy – we’re tearing the stats book up for the day!!
Systems – Ive already backed SM so im certianly not throwing him out. Im just trying to find a horse that might have flown under the radar or been elimanted on a stats only basis.
#126
March 25th, 2010 11:55
So, the list thus far is;
NOTRE PERE
MON MOME
BLACK APALACHI
JOE LIVELY
VIC VENTURI
COMPLY OR DIE
NICHE MARKET
TRICKY TRICKSTER
CLOUDY LANE
DREAM ALLIANCE
MY WILL
STATE OF PLAY
ERIC’S CHARM
KING JOHN’S CASTLE
ARBOR SUPREME
HELLO BUD
CERIUM
FLINTOFF
CHARACTER BUILDING
Any others that people wanna throw out on the basis of stamina or jumping ability, before we move on to class and handicap mark?
#127
March 25th, 2010 11:59
I think that’s a fair list. They have all shown enought to suggest that they are likely to stay and they all have a decent chance of getting round on jumping ability.
#128
March 25th, 2010 12:02
Right, so who just cannot possible be good enough to win?
CERIUM….
If we stretch it a little further, I guess we could include MY WILL on the basis that his best chance was last year and he had no excuses then. Same can be said about KING JOHN’S CASTLE? His best chance 2 years ago maybe?
What do people think?
#129
March 25th, 2010 12:09
Royal Rosa Anyone!
#130
March 25th, 2010 12:13
Dont rule out Palypso De Creek just yet. hoping he will get in, will run of 10’6 ( maybe 10’9) loved the fences in the beacher and has been in form all season.
Stays and jumps well!
Thoughts Please
#131
March 25th, 2010 12:17
Thanks for the response, Pablo, logically I would have put it the other way round, ie 20+ needing the fewer. Systemsman and Rascal I hope I didn’t offend it was a little bit of humour, systemsman it was just the way I read your post, confused.com me.
Someone was asking about Arbor and why should we put money down on him, well watch that 2 1/2 mile race and see how he finishes, plus note how relaxed he traveled, good enough for me.
#132
March 25th, 2010 12:18
Conduit – I certianly fancied him for the William Hill before he was re-routed – I backed him in the Pertemps too but he ran like a drain.
His chase form this season looks solid. The bare form of some of his french runs looks good too.
Problems? Well he’s never run beyond 26f and he faded that day (Becher 09) although granted it was bottomless ground. He was getting a stone from Vic Venturi that day and was soundly beaten. Vic Venturi has shown since with his win in the Bobbyjo that he has improved again and PDC still only gets a stone from him at Aintree, so hard to see him reversing the form, in my opinion….
Whichever way I cut it, im starting to come round to Vic Venturi!!! Hopefully the weights will go up, so I can put that idea to bed!
#133
March 25th, 2010 12:19
Stats say he’s too young Conduit if he was 8 or 9 years old with a few more chases under his belt would be a major fancy for me. Next year he could be a serious contender though.
#134
March 25th, 2010 12:20
Neil – big difference between finishing a 2mile4 race well and staying 4miles4f!
Bit like saying, a horse finished a 5f sprint race well, so would stay in the Leger!!
#135
March 25th, 2010 12:21
Going back to yesterdays theme of the 6 least likely to win – I would go with (only considering those with 10’3 and above):
Deutschland, Abbeybraney, Royal Rosa, Conna Castle, Mr Pointment, Oodachee
#136
March 25th, 2010 12:22
Good points…lets see how he is routed next year.. I too am still toying with the idea of VV and also want NP and MDB to drop out to raise the weights.
#137
March 25th, 2010 12:25
Neil re staying requirements, why don’t post up the broken link that will prob jog Pablo’s mind.
Re ‘debating’ am with all – totally healthy – unless we get soemone on a ‘dog with bone pointless exercise’ carry on of which there’s been little of late.
Debate away
Order, Order!!
#138
March 25th, 2010 12:29
DE, I’d throw off your list CERIUM, lack of class, no proper prep runs, KING JOHN’S CASTLE, lack of stamina, a masterful waiting ride from Carberry coaxed every bit of stamina from him a couple of years back and he still didn’t quite get home can’t see he would have improved since. I’d put CLOUDY LANE out too as he has never quite seem out the trip and just doesn’t seem to like Aintree either. There are quite a few others I could suggest ditching but that would be on other grounds not class or stamina.
#139
March 25th, 2010 12:33
Yes Daniel,you’re right the is (an extra 2 miles).
Daniel my point was that he was “switched off” at the back and only finished like a train towards the business end of the race. The jockey could have stayed there for an extra two miles if the race was long enough and still come relatively speaking at the same stage in the race.
This is also in the back of my mind with Vic Venturi, yet a horse like Hello Bud or Niche Market ;if ridden like he been ridden all season at the front, flat out I would lay on betfair. If my betfair account was healthy, which it isn’t.
#140
March 25th, 2010 12:38
If you work your way through the formbook, do the necessary maths, its plain to see that VV is weighted to run close (if not ahead of) Hello Bud and also more than likely Niche Market, two that have been mentioned a lot on here, by myself included!
#141
March 25th, 2010 12:40
Thanks for the input Brody.
Given that you’re the third person to question Cloudy Lane’s staying power, lets scrub him too, leaving;
NOTRE PERE
MON MOME
BLACK APALACHI
JOE LIVELY
VIC VENTURI
COMPLY OR DIE
NICHE MARKET
TRICKY TRICKSTER
DREAM ALLIANCE
STATE OF PLAY
ERIC’S CHARM
ARBOR SUPREME
HELLO BUD
FLINTOFF
CHARACTER BUILDING
Anybody want to get rid of any others?? Remember, the use of the words ‘trend’ or ‘stats’ is strictly forbidden!! (for today at least!)
#142
March 25th, 2010 12:43
Re the Venetia Williams horse in the Irish National. Wasn’t he favourite for a race in Ireland last year when trained by PN and got pushed off the course by another horse. I’d forgotten about the incident till now.
#143
March 25th, 2010 12:47
Maureen,
Yeah, he was badly squeezed and ended up being carried out. I think it might have been a certain horse called Chelsea Harbour either falling or jumping violently out!
Daniel,
Without resorting to the stats it’s difficult to put a line through any more of those horses though I always thought Tricky Trickster was a crap name! Does that count?!
#144
March 25th, 2010 12:49
haha – afraid not!
Lets get down to handicapping then – which of those is handicapped badly i.e. is running off a mark they have failed off in the past, or a lot higher than they have ever run off.
alternatively, which are handicapped very well?
#145
March 25th, 2010 12:58
Joe Lively jumping always struck me as dodgy, he was one of the horses in that Derren Brown program and he won that day,but the rest was as bad as he was. Probably get shouted down by someone. Also Flintoff earned the Timeform squiggle earlier in season.
#146
March 25th, 2010 13:02
Timeform squiggle?
#147
March 25th, 2010 13:09
I know people say that Cloudy Lane has missed his chance but, if I remember right his handicap mark went through the roof before his first National, and it’s only just started to come down. Connections really fancied his chances last year. I’ve always heard the ‘doesn’t stay’ remark about him, but sometimes two years of maturing can make a big difference.
#148
March 25th, 2010 13:11
Timeform squiggle indicates that Timeform think the horse is unreliable (for temperamental or other reasons).
#149
March 25th, 2010 13:11
Maureen – His mark went through the roof before his first national, but he ran off his previous mark and was something crazy like 18lb well in!
#150
March 25th, 2010 13:13
Thanks Stayer
Flintoff is hardly bombproof granted, but 2nd in a Blue Sq GC, 6th in an Irish Nat (granted beaten a long way) 3rd in a Scotish National and 2nd in a Midlands National.
Big fields a test of stamina seem to suit him.
Its hard to fancy him seriously on the basis of his sole run this season, but he stays, jumps and is, I think, on his day, good enough.
#151
March 25th, 2010 13:16
Maureen,
Daniel is right about Cloudy Lane. He won two races after the weights came out in 2008 so on National day he was running off a mark 18lbs lower than his current OR. That explains why he was AP favourite for a long time that year.
#152
March 25th, 2010 13:19
I am quite amazed that some of you guys would eliminate both SM and BFT because of their jumping.
Snowy Morning- sure i am the first to admit he is not the best of jumpers, but he is clever he fiddles his fences,if his jumping was that bad would he have finished the course on 2 occasions?.
I have just seen a replay of last years race, and weight was the handicap to him last year not his jumping he might have hit a couple but on the whole he ran a fantastic race, and i would be very happy to have him on my list.
Big Fella thanks-another that as completed the course, sure his jumping is a bit sus at times, he might have lost his jockey on 2 occasions but he has never fallen and once again he is clever, he fiddles and manages to stay on his feet, in 15 races he has unseated on 2 occasions and finished just outside the frame in 6th in last years national, he is a serious player this year, and i would not be surprised if Ruby were to choose him.
jumping is the name of the game and mistakes will happen, kauto is arguably one of the best horses ever seen but he hit the deck last week, and he can be a terrible jumper, look at so many races where he has literally crashed through the last fence, but he is clever and has always stood up.
Red Marauder- had terrible legs, his career was dogged with leg problems, they were as fragile as glass, and as a result he only had a 21 race career, he was an awful jumper, i once heard Alister Down say that he jumped like a breeze block, but he was very clever and he fiddled his fences.
Personally i would sooner have a dodgy jumper who has been round the course and is clever with it’s jumping rather than an unknown, after all it’s horses for courses and some just don’t take to the National.
#153
March 25th, 2010 13:19
But then when people sat down and figured out that Comply or Die was getting a 8lb swing for a 3l beating over a trip that was sure to suit COD better, the money came for COD, and the rest, as they say, is history!
#154
March 25th, 2010 13:22
Puzzled – Im just trying to look at things from a different angle. Snowy Morning is by far my biggest winner come Aintree, so im not against him.
Im just trying to go ‘back to basics’ if you like by trying to find a stayer who jumps well and is classy!
#155
March 25th, 2010 13:24
Ah; it must be the following year that I’m thinking of..he’s certainly had a lot of weight to carry since then. Perhaps next year [if he keeps losing his jockeys on a regular basis!] his weight will come down to a resonable level.
#156
March 25th, 2010 13:47
Pablo: We have to disagree re Phil S and his handicapping of previous winners. If so many of the winners in last 7/8 years who came back the following year finish top 6 to me thats a fantastic job. With 100+ to consider re original weights there has to be something/a few/several who will always always ‘beat’ the handicapper especially if they havent won/placed in higher profile staying chases…
I think the only true indication is the year on year performance of the previous winner and I think in last 10 years (SB didnt turn up in 08 and AH was ‘getting on in years’ and the RM year was a bit of a freak although Papillon was 4th….)that marks him out as all but spot on.
After all what is he supposed to do. If horse A wins the GN then they have to expect something near top weight the following year (depending on other top class runners with non GN form and mark v. them if they run)as I do think a few pounds Aintree factor is fair…if he didnt include that throughout the field then Becher/Topham/Fxhtrs winners/placed would not make the final 40….and I for one remember Ginger Mc going apoplectic they year A House didnt make the final 40 as Phil hadn’t factored in a few extra pounds for its Becher run….and the old git was proven correct….3rd then first…
The other thing that the stats prove is the weights of the winners last how ever many years….would you think he could put the previous years winner in at 11-0 or less?
Nope he cant so overall the results prove a fantastic job…
#157
March 25th, 2010 13:50
And think how many past winners come back and get close to winning again….Hedgehunter (twice) and COD (twice??) just in the last 4 runnings.
#158
March 25th, 2010 13:53
The following figures are not the dosage index they are figures to do with mares in the pedigree.
Has you may or may not know the x chromosome is carried by the female and passed on to her sons and daughters, but the sons can not pass this chromosome onto a son only a daughter rendering the dosage index useless.
It is the quality and stamina in the mares that the following measures.
mon mome and comply or die had insufficient info regarding their damlines so correct figures were useless.
The first 2 figures are the mares speed followed by the next for class and the last 2 for stamina past national winners are
silver birch 3 1 8 5 7 4 12 12 14 20
numbersix 4 4 5 6 9 8 15 13 15 20
hedgehunter 5 5 1 9 5 11 14 12 16 15
am house 2 0 7 3 1 2 4 9 10 11
monty’s pass 5 2 3 7 7 7 14 10 12 17
bindaree 4 3 10 2 10 7 12 17 15 22
red marauder 4 2 4 8 4 6 12 10 14 16
papillon 0 6 3 9 7 6 16 9 18 19
bobbyjo 7 2 2 4 10 9 14 11 8 16
earth summit 4 2 6 6 7 6 13 12 14 19
lord gyllene 3 1 4 8 8 4 16 8 13 20
rough quest 1 4 5 9 8 5 17 10 18 22
royal athlete 4 3 10 4 7 7 11 17 17 21
miinnehoma 4 4 4 8 6 8 14 12 16 18
party politics 1 3 4 7 9 4 16 8 14 20
The horse topping your lists
arbor supreme 5 4 2 8 7 9 15 11 14 17
snowy morning 4 7 1 7 6 11 13 12 15 14
big fella 9 2 3 6 5 11 11 14 14 14
erics 2 6 6 3 5 8 8 14 15 14
hello bud 5 3 4 8 5 8 13 12 15 17
state of play 2 4 5 12 4 6 16 11 21 21
black apalachi 4 6 8 5 4 10 9 18 19 17
dream alliance 2 4 5 8 5 6 13 11 17 18
backstage 3 4 7 10 0 7 10 14 21 17
ollie magern 3 3 6 5 8 6 13 12 14 19
c building 6 6 5 6 6 12 12 17 17 17
vic venturi 2 5 6 6 6 7 12 13 17 18
ell george 3 2 7 11 3 5 14 12 20 21
maljimar 3 2 4 5 10 5 15 9 11 19
Remember the first 2 figures are speed the middle one class and the last 2 stamina of the first 5 numbers.
past national winners had no more than 9 speed points apart from hedgehunter who had 11.
This would seriosly doubt big fella thanks chance along with charac building and snowy morning.
Past national winners all had more than 12 stamina points this would go against big fella again erics charm only 8 black apalachi and backstage.
Also looking at the figures of the last 3 numbers it looks like the best profile is to have for example 9 10 13 an increase towards stamina
arbor supreme 11 14 17
hello bud 12 15 17
dream alliance 11 17 18
ollie 12 14 19
vic venturi 13 17 18
Maljimar 9 11 19
I hope this helps to narrow down the field further thanks red rum.
#159
March 25th, 2010 14:02
Re the jumping ‘debate’.
Another tricky one as a really good jumper can end up on the floor early as ‘jumped too well’ although the drop factor of the fences not what is was…(wrongly in my opinion)…
You would prefer an ‘intelligent’ horse who cottons on early doors that this is a bit different and needs a ‘safer’ approach (NOT ‘looking after itself’…they tend to lose too many lengths as there are 30 to jump so 1-2 l at each fence adds up…). I do think the fences are easier to jump (again wrongly but horse welfare has to be considered) and as said watching 60′s and 70′s re runs they could not take a liberty…watch a 90′s and esp a 00′s re run and they take shed loads out of a fence without it disrupting their strides….doesn’t quite look/feel right to me…but again I guess health and safety has to be considered.
So what I am saying is still couldn’t fancy a horse with FFUF figures but a replay of last years race (with so many in contention at second last) and watching them all jump round with comparative ease….they were not all good/better/great jumpers…it’s just the course is easier to jump these days…so I personally don’t think jumping is the factor it once was…
Another pint Ginger….??
#160
March 25th, 2010 14:24
Ah a stat from Reg Green:
No idea how many years this is over but this is for non finishers and I suspect are ’rounded up’.
58% are PU (am sure some because they jumped badly/didn’t like it but shows not down to falling). He says this includes all horses ‘Distanced’ years ago. Apparently flag wavers came out at The Chair and any real stragglers at that stage were stopped form continuing as seen as too far behind. ‘S true!!
10% are BD (impossible to factor in )
3% are CO or ‘stopped’ (I assume than means like Clan Royal and again impossible to factor in)
4% Refuse
7% UR which can sometimes be jockey not horse error.
So…only 18% fall…..remarkable really….
Another pint Ginger and Reg….??
#161
March 25th, 2010 14:25
It may have been ‘better in the old days’ Nick, but you count how many horses this year are undone by the fences!! It will be about half the field!
#162
March 25th, 2010 14:26
Red Rum,
Thanks for that info. Interesting that some of the horses high on the list fair pretty well.
#163
March 25th, 2010 14:28
So if PU is 3 times more likely than falling then it has to be stamina we need to concentrate on methinkshhh…..yeshh another please Reg and Ginger….
#164
March 25th, 2010 14:29
Dan…see the stats above your last post…less than 20% of the non finishers are down to falls….hic….
#165
March 25th, 2010 14:32
Nick – I delibaretly said being undone by the fences to include those pulled up when not taking to it….see rambo last year!
And i never understand why people differentiate between fall and UR – both mean the same thing to me – horse jumped badly…so badly he didnt finish.
#166
March 25th, 2010 14:33
And am not sure about better in the old days (you try following your colours in black and white young fella….hic….) just ‘different’ and dare I say a truer test…not just another 4m+ handicap which it is moving towards being….albeit a fiendish one to unravel…slumps at the bar….zzzzz…..
#167
March 25th, 2010 14:37
Fair point Dan re F and UR but sometimes (admit not many to distort a stat) freaks happen like a mid 70′s National at first Bechers and The Duke (David Nicholson) gets over it fine but the horse on his inside shoots the jock out of the side door and as he is flailing arms in mid air they intertwine in The Dukes and yank him out of the saddle too…and he was givebnn a UR in the papers the next day!! You can se eit on the reruns and shame camera didnt stay on The Duke as you can see him in the background as the field go to Foinavon going mental at the lad who…if you pardon the expression…pulled him off…!!
#168
March 25th, 2010 14:46
Sorry Nick have to disagree again
These previous winners coming close – they were all beaten! And comfotably so by a better-handicapped horse on the day (the horse they were the year before)
Those 4 were put up an average of 13lb (where’s the skill in that!) having proved they liked the course – of course they can run well again – only 1/3 finish each year – but as I pointed out none came close to actually winning (gallant in defeat)
Mon Mome has only 7lb more so he is well-in compared with Hedge, No6, Monty’s & COD. Now if MM dead-heats with COD then that will be great handicapping.
#169
March 25th, 2010 14:55
Pablo – last year there were 10 in a line at the last….that’s a pretty good effort I think!
COD beat all the others home easily…bar MM.
I would say he did a good job last year
#170
March 25th, 2010 14:56
1990+ (720 runners)
Finishing position; runners; % runners
Winners; 19; 2.6
Placed; 57; 7.9
Unplaced; 193; 26.8
P; 129; 17.9
U; 114; 15.8
R; 22; 3.1
BD; 15; 2.1
CO; 2; 0.3
F; 169; 23.5
#171
March 25th, 2010 14:59
So that’s almost 40% F/UR in the last 20 years Pablo….
Where did you get your stats Nick?!
#172
March 25th, 2010 15:04
Slow pace after BA fell DE – 2 false starts too – all the horses under 11’0 were poor – and the first 4 still separated by 17 lengths or so at the end
Anyway life’s too short…
#173
March 25th, 2010 15:07
Fascinating stuff Redrum
The Package
Tricky Trickster
Chief Dan George
Ballytrim
You wouldn’t mind giving those the Redrum treatment would you?
#174
March 25th, 2010 15:15
OK, apologise for my comments earlier, just felt it was all getting a bit confrontational but none of that today.
Neil S, current rating of Hello Bud is 134 & Irish Raptor 135 on RP website. They’ve been re-rated and as such look unlikely winners as the last 12 were rated 136+ on race day.
Welcome back Redrum – you got a top six?
#175
March 25th, 2010 15:16
“puzzled
March 25th, 2010 13:19
I am quite amazed that some of you guys would eliminate both SM and BFT because of their jumping.”
I agree with puzzled. Not a good start to your new system when you rule out a horse that has jumped 60 GN fences in the last 2 years, finished 3rd and was in the front 5 over the last fence last year. Stick with the stats.
Daniel, After months of work, if you have major doubts about Arbor Supreme, why the hell do you have him as your 3rd. best horse.
#176
March 25th, 2010 15:24
Miinnehoma – because I dont think there are many other viable alternatives!!
I like him (as ive said numerous times today) and on the best of his form he has every chance. But those two sub-standard runs (both in the past 12 months) worry me.
#177
March 25th, 2010 15:38
Daniel, your right but if I had those doubts about a horse he wouldn’t be in my top 20 and AS is not in my top 20.
#178
March 25th, 2010 15:40
Guess it depends on personal preference – what is more important – class or form? We could argue until the cows comes home I guess.
Mon Mome had no chance on the formbook last year…
Despite all the things i’ve said, I cant find a horse to go above AS on my own personal list and into 3rd place.
#179
March 25th, 2010 15:44
“AS is not in my top 20″
Are you serious? Do you really think that at least 20 horses appear to have a better chance at this stage?
#180
March 25th, 2010 16:06
Stayer,
Figure of speech but I don’t rate him at all. I think like last year we are back shopping in the bargain basement dept.
#181
March 25th, 2010 16:38
Come on then, Mr Homa, give us your top 6!
#182
March 25th, 2010 17:05
Daniel I only have 3 -
Snowy, Dream and Eric.
#183
March 25th, 2010 17:22
crisp mentioned this before – will the 4+ prep runs stat (18/19) break this year with 18 of top 41 with less than 4 prep runs or does it make our choice much easier.
+02 Black Apalachi49 11 11-6
+00 Comply Or Die25 11 11-5
219 Tricky Trickster22 7 11-4
21P Dream Alliance49 9 11-3
+69 Nozic103 9 11-3
+4F Pablo Du Charmil70 9 11-2
016 Can´t Buy Time35 8 10-13
3UF Air Force One24 8 10-12
2U1 Big Fella Thanks35 8 10-12
+00 Character Building25 10 10-11
++P State Of Play133 10 10-11
5P6 Equus Maximus34 10 10-9
011 Eric´s Charm35 12 10-9
7U2 Arbor Supreme41 8 10-8
669 Lennon22 10 10-8
253 Maljimar120 10 10-8
4U5 Irish Raptor126 11 10-7
++0 Mr Pointment22 11 10-7
#184
March 25th, 2010 17:29
Well I have been in that public library again (think have worn my library seat out this year)working on Daniel’s list all afternoon for the team and come up with some interestng results and a very small short list which know doubt wil delight one or two. But you’ll just have to wait till later tonight as I need a rest and some play time on the net!
The full list (which I think will prove to be very accurate) needs to include a few runners other than in the list given by Daniel today (but it was a good list Daniel)so tonights post is to be seen as Part A only – hope to complete the whole job in next 48hours.
#185
March 25th, 2010 17:35
miinnehoma it all depends when you take the start of the season – I wil always use the R.Post list as AS has FOUR prep runs (this may apply to others). The NH season starts before the end of April.
AS seasons runs are 37U2 on RP site (I think I have hasd this discussion before).
This year with all the bad weather i would not be put off with a runner with 3 prep runs if they meet all the key trends and have run within 50 days of the GN.
#186
March 25th, 2010 17:46
Redrum; still trying to understand the figures you gave; is the stamina calculated by whoever is the damsire, or do any races the dam had during her career come into it? I know a lot of it can be open to interpretation, because I read up on Sea the Stars last year and a lot of people didn’t think he would stay [I did, thankfully]. I do find it fascinating. On the subject of The Package, did anyone see that jump he did at Cheltenham, a la Dublin Flyer? And, on the subject of jumping ability, I think Comply and Die is very good..and Mon Mome is perfection. In fact, Mon Mome is perfection personified and I think I’ve talked myself into backing him [for peanuts].
#187
March 25th, 2010 17:58
Thanks stayer for explaining about the squiggle, Daniel I hope I wasn’t ignorant but I was typing to you in my dinner hour via my phone, when my dinner hour ended and I had to go back to work, that and I had a mental block on how to spell tempermental, (probably still not spelt it right yet).
Red Rum your views are like a blast of fresh air and very interested that Arbor who will rein Supreme (any betting that would be the headlines if he were to win, lol ), is not totally dismissed.
#188
March 25th, 2010 18:13
Stat wise the prep runs 2-7 (20/20) are from Aug. on but I suppose it’s up to yourself.
+17 Ballyholland41 9 11-0 and 313 Backstage62 8 11-0 should be on the less than 4 prep run list.(Aug. on)
Those with 4+ prep runs – (Starting from Aug.)
25 from top 45 runners.
++3244 Madison Du Berlais42 9 11-10
+F544U Notre Pere49 9 11-10
+P3463 Mon Mome22 10 11-7
+50030 Joe Lively25 11 11-6
211501 Vic Venturi49 10 11-6
++423P Don´t Push It23 10 11-5
U2474P Made In Taipan23 8 11-4
+83529 Niche Market25 9 11-4
++3644 Cloudy Lane35 10 11-3
++2757 My Will22 10 11-2
+1P1PP Beat The Boys25 9 11-0
+780U0 Preists Leap25 10 11-0
+83223 Snowy Morning41 10 10-13
++8530 Deutschland24 7 10-12
+52600 Chelsea Harbour27 10 10-11
+301F2 Dooneys Gate35 9 10-11
+12187 Ellerslie George35 10 10-10
4P1540 Ballyfitz23 10 10-9
3743545UConna Castle43 11 10-9
++7980 King Johns Castle27 11 10-9
395467 Ollie Magern25 12 10-9
+33019 Piraya42 7 10-7
912471P Razor Royale25 8 10-7
++2312 The Package25 7 10-7
735U87 Hello Bud23 12 10-6
#189
March 25th, 2010 19:34
My stats were from Reg Greens book and go up to the mid 90′s from when the results were factually complete so not from the first race so I assume about 100 years worth up to the then point.
I have seen results for 20′s and 30′s where they say DNF (did not finish) next to horses so no idea how he interpreted that or what research he did to establish what exactly happened to a horse.
Also the stats were only about those that didnt finish, not those that did. Also, in a year like Foinavon no idea how many of those at the 23rd were given F, Ref,CO, UR or stopped…I guess they could be seen as all/some/none of the above for each horse.
Will still stand by Phil S and his handicap. As I said if there are about 110 horses to handicap (2 months before the race we may add) then its odds on at least one will get through and beat the previous years winner and its hard to establish just how good say a Hedgehunter was or even COD (1st and 2nd) when we measure them all against the glorious freak that was Red Rum. I can imagine the outcry if he gave say this years winner (assuming it will be about a 10-8 to 10-10 range) only asay 11-2 next year, top weight stays in and it wins for 2nd year pulling a cart….rest of trainers will cry (rightly) fix….no h/cap can regularly stand up to 36f and 30 fences and 110 orig. entries… as said its big odds on something will sneak under the radar …the only way I would concede was if the previous years winners came back and were hammered….they aren’t…so Im with Phil still.
#190
March 25th, 2010 19:48
Think this sums it up.
08 Mon Mome carried 2lb more than COD and got beat 55+l
09 COD carried 6lbs more than MM (so 8lb pull for 55l beating which should always in theory always favour COD) and lost by 12l so a 67l reversal….
How on earth can Phil S predict that???
#191
March 25th, 2010 19:52
Daniel – from the ones left in your list, there are two who I think will NOT stay the full 4m4f. They are Flintoff and, rather controversially, Hello Bud!
My opinion on the full list of most likely stayers is:
Don’t Push it
Backstage
King Johns Castle
Vic Venturi
Joe Lively
Notre Pere
Arbor Supreme
Niche Market
Black Apalachi
Silver Birch
Royal Rosa
Maljimar
Eric’s Charm
Dream Alliance
Tricky Trickster
Madison du Berlais
My Will
State of Play
Comply or Die
Mon Mome
Cerium
Snowy Morning
Air Force One
I believe all others won’t stay the FULL trip, including Big Fella Thanks.
#192
March 25th, 2010 19:57
Yet COD v Snowy Morning:
08 COD beat SN 5 and 1/2 l getting 6lb (at 1lb a length that looks spot on)
09 COD beat SM 13l getting just 2lb so SM better in yet COD proving what a good horse he is at Aintree and allowing perhaps for SM easing as not going to place….
Spot on Phil.
#193
March 25th, 2010 20:03
Good to be back Thai mark top 6 would be
d alliance 6
v venturi 5
a supreme 4
h bud 3
o magern 2
maljimar 1
Pablo figures for the four are
the package 3 9 4 12 2 12 14 16 25 18
trickster 4 4 6 4 7 8 11 14 14 17
c d george 2 2 6 4 10 4 14 10 12 20
ballytrim 0 8 1 10 9 8 19 9 19 20
Pablo the package falls on the speed figures and trickster by a point on stamina.
Looking at tricksters pedigree he has a northern dancer daughter called fanfreluche this is often a good sign for stamina.
The mare that won the melbourne cup 3 times had her close up in her pedigree aswell has monty’s pass and hedgehunter.
The other 2 have endless stamina i like the look of chief dan george thanks for bringing him up.
Maureen the figures take into account not just the damsire but all the female families in the first 6 generations.
Their is a book that explains more called conduit mare profiles it is in expensive but interesting.
#194
March 25th, 2010 20:37
Miinne wheres Arbor if you have Don’t Push it and My Will on your list?
#195
March 25th, 2010 20:42
redrum 6 and my 3 now on list -
57 arbor supreme 12 18
53 snowy morning 12 18
36 erics charm 10 18 33 big fella thanks 7 18
33 hello bud 9 18
23 dream alliance 6 18
19 state of play 5 18
16 mon mome 6 18
14 black apalachi 3 18
12 vic venturi 5 18
11 ollie magern 3 18
09 backstage 2 18
08 character building 3 18
07 ellerslie george 3 18
07 maljimar 4 18
06 ballyfitz 2 18
05 the package 2 18
05 comply or die 1 18
04 niche market 3 18
03 chelsea harbour 2 18
03 beat the boys 1 18
02 razor royale 1 18
02 air force 1 1 18
01 cant buy time 1 18
#196
March 25th, 2010 20:59
Sorry about that, maybe it’s an omen for Big Fella Thanks.
Neil S, are you talking to me. I only have 3 on my list, silly I know but there you are – Snowy, Dream and Eric. I do think BFT is a danger and maybe Razor Royal if the stats don’t hold. Maybe My Will or Air Force One might break a few small stats and win.
#197
March 25th, 2010 21:03
Pablo, Showwaddy waddy says if I put the link up it might jog your memory. Sure it doesn’t need much jogging, but for the benefit of the others:
Pablo september 2009 14:02 (now referred to #109 post)
I thought this might be of interest-a slightly different approach to solving the national conundrum
http://www.onlinebettingexposed.com/the-aintree-grand-national-2009/
and
http://.onlinebettingexposed.com/the-aintree-grand-national-2008/
#198
March 25th, 2010 21:06
I know this is 197 when it will appear but for some reason I’ve one awaiting moderation, strange.
Miinnehoma I was just asking about why Arbor Supreme is not on your list he has 4 prep runs.
#199
March 25th, 2010 21:28
Neil S, I hate to give out but are you and some others speed reading these posts (especially my posts). Sorry about this but sometimes I wonder whats the point.
Arbor Supreme has 3 prep runs since Aug. He did have one in May but the prep run stat 2-7 runs which is 20/20 is based on runs since Aug.
He has gap between 2nd. of May and his next run on the 13th. of Dec. How can anyone call that 4 prep runs but then what the hell do I know.
#200
March 25th, 2010 21:39
Part A (part B – the full list i next 24hours)
Daniel’s origional list today was:
NOTRE PERE
MON MOME
BLACK APALACHI
JOE LIVELY
VIC VENTURI
COMPLY OR DIE
NICHE MARKET
TRICKY TRICKSTER
CLOUDY LANE
DREAM ALLIANCE
MY WILL
STATE OF PLAY
ERIC’S CHARM
KING JOHN’S CASTLE
ARBOR SUPREME
HELLO BUD
CERIUM
FLINTOFF
CHARACTER BUILDING
Well the nature of the exercise was to compare this alsit with my Black Book System which I have now modifed to make it 10/10 (10 winners from the alst 10 GN)who either had 3 stars or two stars plus a 1/2/3 i last 3 runs and also match the 30/30 (both tos eon 3 stars and the 2 star runner). So who in Daniel’s fit the inneer profile?
Note: Any runner on more than 11.05 on race day is taken out of this list (I for one would still keep DA even if 11.06 as stakes “cover” bet):
3 stars – meets the system requrements
2 stars – meets some key requirements
A = placed 1/2/3 in one of last three races
B = meets the requiremmenst of the 30/30 stat
All the last 10 wins have had either 3stars (70%)and A + B
or 2stars + A and B 30%)
Most likely winner
Nich Market 11.04 3stars A + B
(Chase strike rate only 39%)
Dream Alliance 11.03 3stars A + B
Arbor Supreme 10.08 3stars A + B*
(* = AS so close to 30/30 stat given benefit of the doubt)
Snowy Morning 10.13 2stars A + B*
(* = SM gievn benefit of the doubt by adding 1/2/3 in GN to 30/30 stat)
Maybe’s but missing at least one important factor
Hello Bud 10.06 3stars B
(Chase strike rate only 39%)
Tricky Trickster 11.04 3stars A
Erics Charm 3 stars* A
(* = only 3 stars if his price drops further)
So thats it only AS and SM left if the weights go up 3lbs but DA and NM included if weights remain the same. Amazing it hits the top two on our top six list. I am now very confident about these two (+ DA if weights do not go up).
Ofcourse we now need to consider some outside Daniel’s list so will post part B with the “master list” in next 24hours.
If we had not had a cut off point of 11.05 those below would also have 3 stars A + B
Mon Mome 11.07
Black Apalachi 11.06
(Chase strike rate only 33%)- 42% min needed.
Vic Venturi 11.06
#201
March 25th, 2010 21:41
Miinnehoma ,sorry to cause offence, thought Arbor counted that’s all. However if you want I’ll shut up with the exception of posting my six when and where needed.
#202
March 25th, 2010 22:24
Now Neil S don’t be silly, you did not cause any offence. There is no problem, I was just letting off some steam. Sorry about that and please keep posting, we need all opinions to find this winner.
#203
March 25th, 2010 22:31
Red Rum – I really enjoyed reading your posts today, mostly because your top six is also mine. just wanted to say.
#204
March 25th, 2010 22:43
Next week,Nick Mordin reviews the national, he has a very good record in the national, having the winner amonst his selection last year. Also with a little luck usually have the forecast too.
However now I’ve mentioned it sods law he’ll miss the winner this time.
#205
March 25th, 2010 22:52
My take on the stats
1.. The 30/30 stat A top 5 Hennessey/top 3 Irish,Scots Welsh National/top 2 in race over GN fences/
B 3 wins at 24f including one at 28f or more
(A is 16/19, 12/12) – solid, proves stamina and jumping is not a worry in large handicaps
2. top 3 C1 chase, 25/25 – proves the horse’s class
3. 2-7 weeks since last run 28/28 – very important, confidence booster over fences
4. won at 24f or more, 39/39 – no stamina worries
5.. top 4 chase, top 3 hurdle this season, 43/43 – shown form during the season
6. 9+ chases – experience is vital – but horse may have already achieved stat 1
7. aged 8-12. 62/62, age trend – needs flexibility, again wouldn’t be put of a horse that has achieved stat 1
8. RPR of 141 or more LH 20/20 – straight jumper!
9.. weight less than 11-4, 27/27 – solid, should always be a horse during the season that has had to perform over inadequate trips and is therefore well handicapped
10. RPR of 144 or more 20/20 – mainly covered by no.8
11. 32/39 placed at 28f or more, 3 of the 7 didn’t race beyond 27f) – again solid
12. Has won a C1/C2 chase worth 17K 17/17 – not essential, would rather see the horse perform in stat 1 and 2 consistently
13. . won 1 of last 10 chase – depends on how the horse is campaigned
14. 98f+ clocked up during season 18/19 – preparation has therefore been ideal and the horse has no injury problems, no great jumping worries and we’ve got a ‘fit’ horse
Stats I don’t feel are essential and require flexibility would be 6,7,12 and 13
Having reviewed them, I do have preference for Snowy Morning, would like to have seen AS have another prep and is being backed on the form of one run this season!?!. I don’t value the Scottish national form and therefore have lost as much interest in Hello Bud, however he’s a good jumper and should enjoy the ground. Ollie Magern, I still like off his lowest ever mark and returned to some form at Cheltenham.
Redrum – found your posts very interesting one line from yours ‘past national winners had no more than 9 speed points apart from hedgehunter who had 11.
This would seriosly doubt big fella thanks chance along with charac building and SNOWY MORNING.’
Same trainer, and I wonder how close SM would have gone in 2009 had he also fallen at the last in 2008 a la Hedgehunter in 2004
#206
March 25th, 2010 22:53
Talking of going back to basics and this idea might be controversial but age 8-12 in the last decade only 1 won,similar story for previous decade, and nine year olds are statistically the best age, so should we amended that state to 9-12 years only.
#207
March 25th, 2010 23:24
Last 8 year old to win was Bindaree in ’02.
Might be a step to far, they seem to pop up every 8/9 years over the last 36 years. Before that you had 4 between ’58 and ’66.
#208
March 25th, 2010 23:28
I think you’re right, Miinnehoma.
#209
March 25th, 2010 23:35
Perhaps, more Brownie points for nine year olds. After all the book which introduced me to stats says on age 8-12 year olds, but take heart if your selection is a 9 year old.
#210
March 25th, 2010 23:45
Just been doing some research and came across this. Can someone explain how 1989 GN winner Little Polveir fits the 30/30 stat – 1/2/3 welsh national, scots national etc etc(as it says its 30 from 30)? Its the only one in the last twenty years that does not quite line up with my modified “black book system” which is now 19/19 having checked tonight back 20years.
#211
March 25th, 2010 23:46
“miinnehoma
March 25th, 2010 23:24
Last 8 year old to win was Bindaree in ‘02.”
So another is well overdue!!!
#212
March 25th, 2010 23:51
In what way does it not fit? It won the Scottish National in 87. The OR was calculated different then is that it.
#213
March 26th, 2010 00:04
1. The 30/30 stat A top 5 Hennessey/top 3 Irish,Scots Welsh National/top 2 in race over GN fences/
B 3 wins at 24f including one at 28f or more
(A is 16/19, 12/12) – yes, B
2. top 3 C1 chase, 25/25 – yes, several times
3. 2-7 weeks since last run 28/28 – yes
4. won at 24f or more, 39/39 – yes
5.. top 4 chase, top 3 hurdle this season, 43/43 – yes, 2nd in chase
6. 9+ chases – experience is vital – yes, 30
7. aged 8-12. 62/62, age trend – yes, 10
8. RPR of 141 or more LH 20/20 – yes, 149
9. Weight less than 11-4, 27/27 – yes, 10’11
10. RPR of 144 or more 20/20 – yes, 156 twice
11. 32/39 placed at 28f or more, 3 of the 7 didn’t race beyond 27f) – yes, won 28f
12. Has won a C1/C2 chase worth 17K 17/17 – yes, Grade 2 £24k
13. Won 1 of last 10 chase – no, 1 of last 11 chases (maybe 12 after Saturday)
14. 98f+ clocked up during season 18/19 – yes, 125 and counting
Passes 13 of 14 of these trends and I’m doing the rain dance for Aintree
Soft ground and the 2010 Grand National winner is…
Chelsea Harbour
Here comes the rain
I love the rain…
#214
March 26th, 2010 00:06
I think we are due an 8 or even 11/12 year old. The last two winners were 9 year olds. We haven’t had three 9 year olds in a row since 1948. Infact 4 won between ’48 and ’51.
Little Polveir did win the SN.
#215
March 26th, 2010 01:12
Systems,
Tricky and Eric match the 30/30 stat via 3×24(1×28). So should they be 3 star A+B
3 stars – meets the system requrements
2 stars – meets some key requirements
A = placed 1/2/3 in one of last three races
B = meets the requiremmenst of the 30/30 stat
Maybe’s but missing at least one important factor
Hello Bud 10.06 3stars B
(Chase strike rate only 39%)
Tricky Trickster 11.04 3stars A
Erics Charm 3 stars* A
(* = only 3 stars if his price drops further)
#216
March 26th, 2010 05:37
Using 8 stats on all horses from 11.04 – 10.06.
1 – age 8-12+++62/62
2 – wt. 11.04 or less+++27/27
3 – min. 3 chase wins++++19/19
4 – chase win in last 10 chases+++27/27
5 – min. 42%+ C/P S/R on GN day++++19/19
6 – 2-8 prep runs++++26/26
7 – won @ 24f+ chase/hurdle++++37/37
8 – 2-7 weeks since last prep run+++28/28
So we are left with 11 -
CLOUDY LANE10 11.03 – 3644
DREAM ALLIANCE9 11.03 – 21P
BEAT THE BOYS9 11.00 -1P1PP
CAN’T BUY TIME8 10.13 – 016
SNOWY MORNING10 10.13 – 83223
AIR FORCE ONE8 10.12 – 3UF
CHARACTER BUILDING10 10.11 – 00
ELLERSLIE GEORGE10 10.10 – 12187
ERIC’S CHARM12 10.09 – 011
ARBOR SUPREME8 10.08 – (3)7U2
RAZOR ROYAL8 10.07 – 912471P
#217
March 26th, 2010 08:49
miinnehoma
March 25th, 2010 18:13
Stat wise the prep runs 2-7 (20/20) are from Aug. on but I suppose it’s up to yourself.
Exactly!! I hope this puts this particular argument to bed!
Miinehoma – great work with your last post!!
#218
March 26th, 2010 09:03
Have people written off Character Building this year? Only 8pts on our latest table and only nominated by 3/18 voters. Never really fancied this one in previous years but in a year where there doesn’t seem to be any horses with outstanding credentials he has come into my reckoning.
#219
March 26th, 2010 09:25
Stayer – With a decent prep he would have been in my top 3, but he hasn’t, in my opinion, shown enough this season to convince me he can win the big one.
Plus there are the niggles about whether he has the fight in a finish – cant remember which race it was but there was one last season where he didnt fancy it at all in a finish. And of course he won that Cheltenham race on the bridle, so questions as to what, if anything, he would find coming off it.
Agree with your sentiments that there isnt an ‘outstanding candidate’ this year, so dont let me, or anybody else, talk you out of your fancies, because im sure that the eventual winner, whoever they are, will have been dismissed by many on here at some point during the past 6 months or so!
#220
March 26th, 2010 09:57
Thanks Ellie hope it helps
TC The system definately says Big fella can’t win the race. I think the high position of the horse in the betting has a lot to do with harry findley.
The man is desparate for a national win even maybe willing to run denman next year.
Your right Snowy Morning just misses out but i’m not sure i would rule him out completly.
#221
March 26th, 2010 10:11
Daniel,
I echo those sentiments really. As I said, i’ve never been a massive fan of the horse and i’m only really looking at him as there are so many question marks hanging over other contenders
ADMIN: A couple of jockey bookings have been announced over the last few days (Liam Treadwell – Nozic, Denis O’Regan – Black Apalachi). I think last year we had a separate thread for the jockey bookings so now we’re few are coming throigh it might be worth starting one.
#222
March 26th, 2010 10:28
Stayer – Yep, CB is one of about 10 horses I cant bring myself to put my money on, but that I think could win it!
My strategy on a race like this years is to not bet on too many – the temptation is to back loads to spread your money around, but you could back 6-8 this year and still not even get one placed!
I think I have decided that I will be on;
Snowy Morning 10pts
Hello Bud 3 pts
Eric’s Charm 1pt
and if (and only if) the weights dont go up, I may crumble and have half a point on Vic Venturi.
#223
March 26th, 2010 10:31
oh and before anybody asks, im not on AS because EC represents better value in my eyes and I dont want to back them both.
#224
March 26th, 2010 10:33
Any news on VV anybody? Has taken a walk out to 40/1 on Betfair!!
#225
March 26th, 2010 10:44
Aintree weather forecast:
Every day from Sun 28 Mar (apart from Thurs 1 Apr) is raining until Monday April 5.
But picture has changed again as from the Tuesday up to and including race day it is dry.
So only thing we DO know is rain is in the mix but when it will come keeps changing.
Will keep an eye on updates but don’t think we’ll REALLY know until beginning of the race week.
#226
March 26th, 2010 10:50
Saw some news the other day that the course was riding good-soft. Keep trying the Turftrax link on the Aintree site but they are not refreshing it as yet. Hopefully they will start doing so next week:
http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=aintree
#227
March 26th, 2010 11:01
If its good to soft at the minute, with that rain forecast, its not (assuming the rain comes) going to be any faster than that on the day, is it?
#228
March 26th, 2010 11:32
Pablo: re Chelsea Harbor.
Black Book score:
1 star + B
It fails on:
Price curently 50/1- 100/1 (we exclude betfair etc)with 100/1 quoted 9 times – too high (yes I know MM was 100/1 but he had more stars + A and B).
No 1/2/3 in last 3 races.
And misses another star factor for a star.
Chase Strike rate 7/30 23% – much too low.
Last win Dec 2008 12 runs ago – not good.
Conclusion – unlikely to win but well worth a look Pablo as we should leave no stone unturned at this stage. I am also looking at others for my final black book list.
miinnehoma – thanks for that revision, imprtant i dont get it wrong as the revised black book system is now a 19/19 correct system. I will revise the list soon.
Team: it would be helpful ie we mention the name of the horse we are talking about at the head of each post. Most times you can guess the runner but sometimes its gets dificult.
#229
March 26th, 2010 11:32
Miinnehoma
happy with that 11, seems as i have 5/6 in there.
you’ll do for me!
#230
March 26th, 2010 11:38
Totally with Systems on listing names. It does get tiresome when a certain horse hasn’t been mentioned for a while and you’re wondering who XYZ is. Why not let’s go for ‘Big’ instead of ‘BFT’ etc
#231
March 26th, 2010 11:44
sorry!! By VV I of course meant Vic Venturi!
Any news?!
#232
March 26th, 2010 11:44
The revised Black Book list (thanks to minnehoma for the correction)- this is Part A only so far using Daniel’s list yesterday. Found the GN winner 19/19.
3 stars – meets the system requrements
2 stars – meets some key requirements
A = placed 1/2/3 in one of last three races
B = meets the requiremmenst of the 30/30 stat
All the last 19 winnners have had either 3stars and A + B
or 2stars + A and B
Remember if weights go up we exclude anything that is over 11.05
Most likely winner
Nich Market 11.04 3stars A + B
(Chase strike rate only 39%)
Tricky Trickster 11.04 3 stars A + B
Dream Alliance 11.03 3stars A + B
Arbor Supreme 10.08 3stars A + B*
(* = AS so close to 30/30 stat given benefit of the doubt)
Snowy Morning 10.13 2stars A + B*
(* = SM gievn benefit of the doubt by adding 1/2/3 in GN to 30/30 stat)
Erics Charm 3stars A + B
(so long as his price drops to 33/1 or less before the race)
So there we have it so far:
If weighst remain the same a list of 6
NM, TT, DA, SM, EC, AS
If weights go up 3lbs a list of 3
SM, EC, AS
+ any on Part B (if any) to come soon. Amazing how short the list is (and normely is each year).
If the system is correct this year I promise o post the system rules the day after the GN for all to use.
#233
March 26th, 2010 11:47
agree, sometimes have to get a teenage texter in to read abbreviations!
#234
March 26th, 2010 11:58
Daniel Edwards:
Re: Your GN bets.
I urge you to have stakes saver + bet of Arbor Supreme (you might want to wait for final confirmation of his GN run)as with your other three you probably have the winner (if weights go up, if not I still think DA has a chance). Team dont get me wrong here I’am not saying is the only one who can win just that he needs to be in anyone top four. Both AS, SM and DA have come up in the many bits of resaerch I have done since Christmas.
#235
March 26th, 2010 12:05
Systems – ive decided this year I am having 2 main bets and then 2 savers MAX – if I have a second saver and Vic Venturi doesnt run or his weight goes up, it will be Arbor Supreme. If not, he wont be running for me.
You have to take a stand against some of them. At 16/1, im happy to look elsewhere for some ew value.
#236
March 26th, 2010 12:08
Bit of news about the ‘also rans’ Seems Nozic (not mentioned here once..never..not ever…by anyone) has been sold to The Sun as some sort of promotional thing and will run with Lian T getting the ride. Interestingly in the article P Nich. said he hasnt made riding arrangements for BFT or TT but no mention of My Will…which had traded at 999/1 on Sporting Bet pre the last decs stage…
#237
March 26th, 2010 12:21
Crikey; I had it in my head that Nozic wasn’t running. Not that I would have backed him.
#238
March 26th, 2010 12:29
Sat 5.05 Navan will greatly affect Backstage and Chelsea’s odds one way or tother. Interesting race.. A good run from Chelsea could put him right back in contention and similarly a poor one from Backstage could see him drift or a good run shorten even more.
May well watch that one..
#239
March 26th, 2010 12:30
Stayer, about Character Building after his last run I just don’t fancy him at all. However doing the double (William hill / national ) I should have something on him even if its a token bet.
Agreed about naming the horse your taking about, for instance I could have put Cb meaning character building and if he was still entered some people might think Cane Brake.
I tell you what could be an interesting topic of conversation, bookmakers. Should bookmakers keep a runner in the betting when like Casey Jones or Coe they have a fatality, people who don’t know could be placing a bet on a horse with zero percent of winning.
#240
March 26th, 2010 12:32
Just found this. Now the news is not which horse McCoy will ride but that MccOy talks about a choice of four for the GN and if they are ALL certain . And the name of one is AS!!
Wednesday 24th March – the Guardian
“Another year, another Grand National dilemma for Tony McCoy. The champion jockey enjoyed a productive Cheltenham Festival last week, winning top-class races over hurdles and fences, and as he waited for his sole ride here yesterday his thoughts turned to the question of how he might achieve a first victory in the Aintree race a fortnight on Saturday.
He would dearly love to win a National for his employer, the owner and high-profile gambler JP McManus, who has fielded dozens of runners without success over the past 20 years. But the race has been famously unkind to McCoy and it is understandable that the jockey is not getting carried away about his chances, whichever horse he chooses to ride from those that McManus has entered.
“You can make a case for the four of them, really,” is McCoy’s judgment. “None of them are outstanding candidates, I wouldn’t have thought. King Johns Castle has been second in a National [behind Comply Or Die in 2008], Arbor Supreme ran well the last day, Can’t Buy Time was a bit disappointing last time out and so was Don’t Push It.
“I haven’t really spoken to the boss about it yet. As I don’t have to make a choice until two days beforehand, I’ll probably leave it fairly late.”
McCoy’s choice is complicated by the fact that even the least fancied of the quartet, King Johns Castle at 50-1, has a serious chance, according to Frank Berry, McManus’s racing manager. “The race at Navan last time [over hurdles] was a bit slow for him but he was finishing strongly. He’s not getting younger but he ran a blinder [at Aintree] two years ago and you would hope that the place would do it for him again,” Berry said.
McCoy has not ridden King Johns Castle in a race for more than two years and feels the 11-year-old has “had a few runs” since he last showed useful form. He appears more tempted by Don’t Push It, despite the disappointing effort he turned in at the Cheltenham Festival last week, when pulled up in the Pertemps Final won by Buena Vista.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2010/mar/24/tony-mccoy-grand-national-jp-mcmanus
So the plot begins:
Part 1 – AS to run in GN 2010
Part 2 – AS to win the GN 20010!
Having McCoy as the jockey – positive or negative – any views?
#241
March 26th, 2010 12:35
“Part 2 – AS to win the GN 20010!”
That would be a long wait – I would ot be able to have that med holiday in the sun and the new 37inch TV set – i’ll be long gone!
Should say “2010″
#242
March 26th, 2010 12:38
“None of them are outstanding candidates, I wouldn’t have thought.”
??
#243
March 26th, 2010 12:40
Systemsman 20010? That long
#244
March 26th, 2010 12:55
Arbor will be past it by 20010.
I’m generally a fan of AP but I wouldn’t see him as a positive jockey booking in the National. I know he has had his share of bad luck in the race, but i’m not sure his active riding style is really suited to the demands of Aintree. In a race like this I prefer a jockey that takes the “quietly quietly” approach and just let the horse pop away rather than one that makes the mind up for the horse and fires it into every other fence.
#245
March 26th, 2010 13:06
So which jock do we think is best suited to the demands of Aintree?
Of those riding at the mo, who has the best record, not just in terms of wins, but in getting a horse round and into contention?
#246
March 26th, 2010 13:15
Pablo/anyone – can you help me with this?
“Can someone explain how 1989 GN winner Little Polveir fits the 30/30 stat?”
#247
March 26th, 2010 13:20
Systemsman – he won the Scots National
The RP records only go back as far as 88 and, I think, he won in 87.
#248
March 26th, 2010 13:26
Systemsman
Scottish GN winner
Plus pretty certain he would have been a 28f plus 2 x 24f too
#249
March 26th, 2010 13:27
re, nozic
has been bought half and half by sun and coral currently shares being won in comps so will run unless anything untowards happens
#250
March 26th, 2010 14:02
Re Arbor Supreme
If this one wins it will be the fist time in the last 20+ years a horse has won the GN without at least placing in a Graded chase, (ie Grade 1,2,3). To me this means the trainer thinks it has not been good enough to run with the best. The other way to look at it is that the trainer has not given the horse a chance to prove its self. I’m a great believer in stats for the GN & the Graded placing is another stat I use & hasn’t failed yet.
My horses backed so far in order are
1 Snowy Morning
2 Hello Bud
3 Dream Alliance
4 Niche Market
I will probably have a saver bet on SoP as fits all the stats except the runs before stat.
Others backed & lost on are Trabolgan, Cane Brake & Iris, the joys of AP betting!!
#251
March 26th, 2010 14:19
Re jocks best suited:
I posted something about a month ago giving jocks a Grand Prix style points system for last 10 years and Ruby W was way out in front and Barry G a good second. We can argue that it depends on the horse (Ruby will always be on something fancied though he did stay loyal to Hedgehunter when it had next to zero chance in its final run…). Timmy M has good frecod (ok 1 horse big contribution) but his patient style…not the exaggerated hold up of a Paul C…seems to work.
For me the best winning ride of last 10 years was Graham Lee as A House virtually left stranded after the melee at first Bechers (I think 7 or 8 came down) and he took his time and didnt panic. Even Ginger said he was swearing at him around 2nd Bechers/Canal as he said he thought he had given AH too much to do……
If it is going to be soft or worse this year then I for one would want a hold up/patient rider…and as much as am an AP fan…would rather he wasnt on one of mine in the GN…
#252
March 26th, 2010 14:20
Re Little Polvier…didnt he win the Grand Military at Sandown just before his GN win?? Not sure what the conditions/distance etc is for that but it is a fair race re distance if not quality…
#253
March 26th, 2010 14:23
Sorry am wrong…LP was bought specifically for the GM and was fourth and the GN was a pure afterthought…!!!
#254
March 26th, 2010 14:26
Interesting how things have changed…in LP’s year 3 of first six were 12yo (inc first 2) and in last 10 years only 2/40 (first 4 each year) have been 12yo…
#255
March 26th, 2010 14:44
New discussion topic: The Forgotten Horse
Have just been categorizing the remaining entries, and the one that I think we’ve all ruled out (presumably on the grounds of weight), but that must have a live chance is NICHE MARKET.
Currently trading as long as 20/1, having been as short as 12/1 pre weights, a proven stayer this has to represent some value.
Examining the relevant form – Placed in the Cheltenham 4 miler as a 7 yo Novice, Irish National Winner, a staying on 3rd in the Hennessy and narrowly beaten by Tricky Trickster in the Aon, when putting Denman under pressure.
I know it would blow the <11'01 stat out the water, but interestingly would still be in the '12lbs or less above bottom weight' if less than 7 horses come out.
Only 2 chase wins and a 1,2,3 strike rate of 39% place him just outside of acceptable range on some of the weaker stats, but if we can forgive the run at Cheltenham on the grounds that the National is his only real target, we could be overlooking a maturing performer who ticks almost all the right boxes.
So thats my nomination – who would you say are the forgotten horses of this years renewal?
#256
March 26th, 2010 14:55
It would only really tweak the weight stat, depending which way you cut it.
I would prefer Vic Venturi though, at a similar price and weight.
#257
March 26th, 2010 15:03
Arbor Supreme has been clipped in by 7 bookies today.
#258
March 26th, 2010 15:04
Gammers he also won Irish national, and his cheltenham run wasn’t too bad. The forgotten horse to me is Dream Alliance trainer can’t explain his poor run last time out. However if you say that they are entitled to run poorly now and then he’s got to be strongly fancied, especially if the going going to be soft.
#259
March 26th, 2010 15:05
Wouldn’t put Arbor’s run in stone yet..
From Willie Mullins blog today:
The post-Cheltenham planning is less straightforward than usual this year, with the big festivals at Fairyhouse, Aintree and Punchestown all falling quite close together.
Punchestown is scheduled for a week earlier than usual, which will make it tough on horses recovering from their travels and so on.
I’d prefer to save most of mine for Fairyhouse and Punchestown, so we won’t have a big team going to Aintree.
#260
March 26th, 2010 15:09
I did see that Showlad. However, I got the impression Willie Mullins was talking about the meeting as a whole rather than the National itself – there are plenty of novice chaes, handicap hurdles etc to stay at home for but there’s only one Grand National.
#261
March 26th, 2010 15:10
Forgotten horse….Black Appalachi.
Was going well under a lot of weight last year until he came down. Well able to clear big fences. All the talk this year is of rain. Well if it does BA loves it soft!!
#262
March 26th, 2010 15:11
Hi Stayer. Yes just the same game though ain’t it – we just don’t know do we?
#263
March 26th, 2010 15:13
By the same token, Comply looking more likely to have Timmy Murphy on board and The Package is obviously NOT a certainty.
From same article as on AP:
Timmy Murphy, who was among the winners here at Kempton yesterday, has what seems a stronger hand for the National, even though his choice has been narrowed to two as the owner David Johnson, who retains his services, withdrew Our Vic and Seven Is My Number at yesterday’s forfeit stage. That leaves Comply Or Die and The Package, as well as Over The Creek, who is so far down the weights that he is likely to be eliminated.
The Package is no bigger than 20-1 for Aintree after being beaten by Chief Dan George in a photo-finish for the William Hill Trophy at the Festival, where he ran on strongly but too late. Murphy, though, is far from convinced.
“He’s still very young, inexperienced for a National, so we haven’t decided if he’s a definite runner yet, it’s been talked about. You can’t beat experience in a race like that but, touch wood, he seems very clever. He’s a good jumper, he stays and he’s got a good weight.”
As things stand, Murphy seems to be leaning towards maintaining his partnership with Comply Or Die, who was a gallant second under a big weight 12 months ago. “He’s only 1lb less than he was last year, so they haven’t given him too much of a chance for being another year older. But we’re happy with him; he showed plenty of enthusiasm [when well beaten in his prep-run at Cheltenham].”
Captain Chris certainly has the size to be a National runner one day but he will be confined to novice hurdle company when he goes to run at Aintree next month, having been an impressive winner here yesterday. “We’ll put a tongue tie on him,” said Sarah Hobbs, wife of the trainer Philip. “He was gurgling all the way up the straight.”
#264
March 26th, 2010 15:16
Redrum,
Am I reading this wrong or has AH only 4 stamina points and RA 11.
“Remember the first 2 figures are speed the middle one class and the last 2 stamina of the first 5 numbers.
Past national winners all had more than 12 stamina points this would go against big fella again erics charm only 8 black apalachi and backstage”.
am house 2 0 7 3 1 2 4 9 10 11
royal athlete 4 3 10 4 7 7 11 17 17 21
#265
March 26th, 2010 15:27
Willie at weights release at Aintree:
“Arbor Supreme had a good chance. He will love the ground, has a lovely weight and is a nice age – but he wouldn’t want the ground soft as he can’t jump out of it. Snowy Morning would be the best of mine”
So he knows Arbor obv better than anyone and if it is soft then not looking good. That’s a currently unfounded big IF it is soft though – won’t really know weather til beginning of race week.
#266
March 26th, 2010 15:33
Showlad,
I don’t suppose we will know much more until this time next week. There a quite a few horses entered at Fairyhouse and Aintree (including Arbor and Snowy) and I imagine decisions will be made closer to the time according to what the going is like at each venue etc.
#267
March 26th, 2010 15:48
Is it April 10th yet?
#268
March 26th, 2010 16:03
Who won?
#269
March 26th, 2010 16:23
Showlad – im the last person you want to ask! I dreamt it was a Butlers Cabin-Black Apalchi 1-2 last year!
#270
March 26th, 2010 16:37
“Gammers
March 26th, 2010 14:44
New discussion topic: The Forgotten Horse
Have just been categorizing the remaining entries, and the one that I think we’ve all ruled out (presumably on the grounds of weight), but that must have a live chance is NICHE MARKET.”
I didnt Gammers, he was given 3 stars with A + B in the Black Book ratings (which surprised me)which means he could win if the weights DONT go up. But than as you say he has “only 2 chase wins and a 1,2,3 strike rate of 39%” which has to be taken into accout if you want a shorter list. I placed him in 6th place .in my own top 6. I think DA is a better bet of the big weight runners currently of tso eon 11.02 to 11.05.
As some have stated Arbor Supreme is dropping like a stone on Betfair. It now looks a fair call to say he is running in the GN. 16/1 with some. Could easily end up in top four in betting by GN day and that looks good. They must all be reading ths site!!!
#271
March 26th, 2010 16:50
BET365 are going NRNB and 5 places so i’ve had a bit more on Arbor Supreme e/w at 18s.
#272
March 26th, 2010 17:06
Stupid me I finely take the plunge and rushed out to place a big bet on Eric’s Charm (in our top six list and in my black book system list). Checked Odschecker and thought it said 50/1 at Ladbrookes so when I turn up I’am told 40/1 so I take it thinking its the best on the high street on offer. Stupid me WHill still have 50/1 (!!) so I must have looked it up wrong or Lad reduced the price today – anyway will only cost me a few £’s or so to put right with WH. Lesson – dont rush out without checking twice the latest price and who has it on offer.
Really want EC to drop to at least 33/1 if possible by race day – it should do (however even over 33/1 it would still have 2stars with both A + B so could still win like Mon Mome last year).
#273
March 26th, 2010 17:12
Forgotten Horse:
Might be obvious but Comply Or Die.
Fantastic run last year under big weight and as said in previous post not even Superman could have foreseen a 67l revesal with Mon Mome on 08 form and COD beat the rest…
Again it has show little in prep runs but it showed v little last year in preps and seems to be a true Aintree type and has a fairish weight say compared to Hedgehunter when he came back after his 1st and 2nd places.
If Timmy M. stays loyal then it could go close again and if we use MM as benchmark COD 8lb better in on last year.
#274
March 26th, 2010 17:16
Noted W Mullins views on his…I know we are two weeks away but been quite a wet 3 days L/Pool area (WED-FRI) this week and he doesnt fancy AS on soft….
#275
March 26th, 2010 17:21
And doing my best weatherman voice:
The weekend for the Liverpool area will be a mixture of sunshine and showers but early next week, Mon and Tues will see prolonged periods of heavy rain and even a possiblity of snow where the temperature drops far enough…
We could be looking at an ‘old fashioned’ slog come April 10th folks!!
#276
March 26th, 2010 17:23
Then as we head towards the Easter weekend we can expect generally unsettled conditions with either showers or longer spells of rain, with the showers wintry over northern hills, although some drier, brighter conditions are also likely at times. Beyond the Easter weekend we are currently expecting unsettled conditions to persist
Gulp….
#277
March 26th, 2010 17:52
I am a bit confused about Willie Mullins quote that Arbor Supreme “would not want soft as he cannot jump out of it” if thats the case then why has he only ever run him on mainly soft or heavy? he has only run on good ground a handful of times.
#278
March 26th, 2010 18:03
Now, I have been casting my eye specifically over a few rank outsiders. To be honest, there isn’t much that takes my eye at all but one who shows just a few glimmers of hope:
Royal Rosa – 10’5′ – OR139
Has raced 5 times over 3m2f+ in class 1 or 2 company
Feb 08 – Don – 32f – gd – OR 128
Pulled up behind King Harald
Feb 08 – Ncs – 33f – g/s – OR126
5/18 – btn 36l – kept on from 3 out behing COD
Apr 08 – Ayr – 33f – gd – OR143
6/24 – btn 34l – kept on from 4 out behind IDB
Nov 09 – Ain – 26f – soft – OR128
3/8 – btn 7l – stayed on to take 3rd behind VV
Dec 09 – Kel – 32f – soft – OR126
PU behind L’Aventure
Not raced since Jan 2010
4 prep runs
Now, it’s not great but there are couple of sneaky bits of ‘staying on’ form at long distances in good races. OR is a bit too high for my liking.
Might not get in but, at 150/1 on Bet365 with NRNB (218 on Betfair) I think it’s worth throwing a cheeky couple of quid e/w at it
#279
March 26th, 2010 18:21
Hi team, from a wet north west. Of course there’s lots of rain about it is a bank holiday next week.
#280
March 26th, 2010 18:21
Agreed puzzled AS has good form on both Soft and Heavy so dont know what all the fuss is about (can also win on good!). I have no doubts myself on ground soft with some gd/sft patches would do fine and I dot see a proble evn if its all soft – just check his record to see. Obviusly I would be deligted if its was Gd/Sft with some Soft patches and it is still to early too tell other than its unlikely to be all good ground according to the weather forcast post on here.
Many GN winners have won on ground that was not ideal for them (on past records) – more than you think.
#281
March 26th, 2010 18:24
Amongst my scraps of paper in front of me is something that I copied a while ago from somewhere; it says 9 y old, good; 10 and 11 softer. I think it meant that older horses handle such conditions better. It made snense at the time. I looked at Royal Rosa earlier in the season, must have been the November race. Was very classy a few years ago.
#282
March 26th, 2010 18:54
Arbor Supreme backed today. Into 16/1 with a number of firms. It can only be a good sign.
#283
March 26th, 2010 19:20
Re Arbor: caution to all get on Bet 365 they are NRNB in case he goes to Fairyhouse.
I have a sneeking feeling AP will go for King John.
#284
March 26th, 2010 19:25
Fogotten Horse (great idea by the way):
PRIESTS LEAP:. Every chance 2 out in last year’s GN but buckled under the 11-05. This year he’s on 10-11. 7th in Irish Nat after mistake near end. Winner over 3m and loves soft/heavy.
As you all know I’m the last to go with any weather hype – but weather prjections really are shaping towards a soft National this year.
#285
March 26th, 2010 19:36
If AP goes for King John, who do you think will ride Arbor? Paul Townend or Paul Carberry maybe? Think the latter rides the course amazingly – takes the shortest way around the inside but seems to keep his rides out of trouble
#286
March 26th, 2010 19:37
the weather doesnt look great for the national… and just what are the chances of it being a SNOWY MORNING, he really would be a fitting national winner to say the least!!
#287
March 26th, 2010 19:55
Just thought I’d see if the Grand National form tool (on this site) would bring anything up.
So I set the Chase win of 3m+ to at least 1 because every modern winner has won at 3 miles (RM over hurdles only).
Seasons falls no more than 0, because they need to be a sound jumper.
Runs over National fences at 0 to give any new comers a chance.
Last race finished in top 3, I worked out the last 20 runnings the was a 45% record of horses finishing in first three, besides it shows they hitting form.
Weight I set to full range, something at back of my mind that heavy weights are being discounted so easily.
Age I set to the usual 8-12 year olds.
Chase runs I set to 10 at least, I think this fact has been well established so I am happy to go with it.
Season runs to at least 5 giving them a good outing.
Biggest chase win to 20K (nearest to 17K)
Career Win to 200k.
Official Ratings to 140.
Days last run between 20-50 days.
It churn out two names.
Vic Venturi and Snowy Morning.
#288
March 26th, 2010 19:56
Forgot I also set career falls to 2 to account for their novice days
#289
March 26th, 2010 20:23
Neil
http://onlinebettingexposed.com/?p=224
…is the link for 2008 GN analysis, which is an interesting read (even though he should have stuck with COD as mentioned at the top!)
Can’t find the link for 2009 analysis, sorry
#290
March 26th, 2010 20:26
Apologies to all if I take over for a moment. This is my post Cheltenham guide free of alcohol influences, and finished. Sorry I posted a lot of it before I was done.
#291
March 26th, 2010 20:29
I apologise for repeats and to admin for space but this is my current analysis and my opinion. I repeat parts now for ease of reading and because some might have missed the start and also because I got a little giddy on alcohol later on.
There are some changes along the way so I hope you read it through. Above all, I hope you enjoy, if you don’t agree.
#292
March 26th, 2010 20:30
AGE
‘Age is something that doesn’t matter, unless you are a cheese.’ (Billie Burke)
…or a horse entered in the modern Grand National, adds The Rascal, less wittily.
Since the Second World War eight to twelve year olds have exclusively (yes, without exception) dominated winners row in the Aintree feature race. That’s seventy years of hurt for six and seven year-olds and the veterans of thirteen years or more. Why would 2010 be any different for a race that has continued to evolve, continued to satisfy and continued to provide winners who meet the expectations of a Grand National champion? Kids and their grandparents don’t win it!
VERMOUTH was six in 1916 when winning the National at a modified course in Gatwick (now the site of Gatwick Airport) and ALLY SLOPER had done so at Aintree the year before at the same age. You can bet your life and the lives of everyone you know that this trend won’t be broken this year as there won’t be a six year old showing up for the 2010 renewal.
Horses’ ages are an illusion though, as far as racing is concerned anyway, since our favourite thoroughbreds actually enjoy two birthdays – the day they were born and January 1st. So, of the seven year olds in the field TRICKY TRICKSTER won’t really be seven until June and PALYPSO DE CREEK can stop lying about his age in May. The bookmakers won’t take your life if one of them wins though, official is official.
This may seem academic but the two eight year olds that have won the Grand National in the last twenty years were actually, for real rather than for official purposes, not a day under eight years old when they ran. This makes the age trend the strongest of any trend you’ll find on this or any other site so the remaining (though honest) seven-year-olds – namely DEUTSCHLAND, PIRAYA and THE PACKAGE can also be dismissed.
If seven has proven unlucky since BOGSKAR’s 1940 victory then it comes as no surprise that thirteen has been notoriously unfriendly too. The race has not seen a thirteen year old winner since SERGEANT MURPHY back in 1923 – to give you an idea of how long that is Edward VIII was monarch then (it was George VI who preceded our present Queen). How many of you would recognise a photograph of either of them?
At thirteen years of age the one pound improvement on his 2007 triumph will prove very hard to find for SILVER BIRCH, should he squeeze into the final forty.
Save for any lingering hunches you may have which, incidentally, The Rascal doesn’t share the field can be quickly trimmed to 49.
Of the seven year olds masquerading as eight year olds? Namely CAN’T BUY TIME, AIR FORCE ONE, RAZOR ROYALE and, hehe, BIG FELLA THANKS – well, a trend is a trend but The Rascal won’t push it. This vain crowd survive…for now, at least.
#293
March 26th, 2010 20:30
3 MILE + WINS
‘The vision must be followed by the venture. It is not enough to stare up the steps – we must step up the stairs.’ (Vance Havner)
When The Rascal goes to bed at night he likes to put some positive vibes behind his closed eyes. He concocts the scenes of his would-be endeavours and lulls himself to sleep amid images of heroism. He has the perfect retort, or the avalanche of abuse, that had eluded him in the moment but sorely came to him after the event. He delivers it verbatim and the victim reels whilst the crowd applauds.
Amongst many feats The Rascal has won the WWE Royal Rumble countless times, has carried the can for betrayals of state with great dignity and sacrificed himself for the good of mankind, he has scored the winning goal for Ipswich Town in the FA Cup Final despite struggling to make the game after suffering pre-match wounds sustained in a road traffic accident prior to the game in which he saved the life of an autistic child. He has signed his own books, recorded his own records and Phil Helmuth has humbly told him, at least seventeen times, how well he played to win the World Series Of Poker.
The Rascal is so immortal in those winking moments before sleep that sometimes he likes to come second in great honour because coming first is a bit boring and the drama of second is much more epic. Of course, at such times, he is still the winner in the eyes of the nation.
The drift of sleep dampens the moments and sets him on his way to sobriety and then he awakes and finds himself a skinny wretch with an ‘I want to be a celebrity, get me out of here’ job and the world’s all wrong again.
It is the same, bizarrely, with the marathon Grand National – wannabe staying thoroughbreds are found out by those that can stay, and stay, and stay again. Not since 1970 has a winning Grand National horse not previously won over a distance of 24 furlongs or more. In 2010 there are those that dream about it but have never tried – namely MADE IN TAIPAN, CONNA CASTLE and LENNON and those that have tried but come short of victory – PABLO DU CHARMIL, KING JOHN’S CASTLE, CERIUM, BALLYHOLLAND and MALJIMAR.
When The Rascal goes to bed tonight he won’t be riding any of these to Grand National glory.
In making a selection for the Grand National The Rascal wants a strong winning horse that has proven form in healthy long chases so we’re left with 41 to choose from.
In the last twenty years RED MARAUDER, who won in the bog of 2001, was the only winner that had not secured a chase win over 24 furlongs or more but he had bagged a long distance hurdles win. The RED MARAUDER exception saves the trends-bacon of ROYAL ROSA. Frowned upon by The Rascal but not fatal in his analysis at this stage.
Sweet dreams rapscallions…
#294
March 26th, 2010 20:31
WINNING CHASE PRIZE MONEY
‘It is not well for a man to pray cream and live skim milk’ (Henry Ward Beecher)
Quality horses win Grand Nationals, it is essentially what keeps the race so magnificently appealing. Throughout this analysis the class and winning potential of our entries is constantly referred to. It is a gallant, if cheeky, attempt to whittle down the field to find the horse with the virtues required of a winner and yet…
Why does everything come down to money, eh?
The Rascal doesn’t judge people by the money they earn but, somewhat hypocritically, does not extend the same liberty to Grand National entries.
Oh, a plague on society for its materialistic ends! Still, The Rascal wants to bag some wonga on April 10th and it’s a fair old trend to use.
The last horse not to meet the ‘previously won £17,000 or more in a chase win’ trend was PARTY POLITICS in 1992. With this falling within The Rascal’s last-twenty-winners analysis it might be said he his cheating his own system by ruling out current contenders who also fail to meet it. However, inevitable inflation has to be given its dues on this one – PARTY POLITICS banked £99,000 for his Grand National victory whereas MON MOME’s prize fund breached half a million pounds. Tasty!
As a 16/16 trend, it’s worth holding on to and defeats the hopes of another six contenders – ROYAL ROSA (it was coming), BALLYFITZ, OODACHEE, DOONEY’S GATE, FLINTOFF and ABBEYBRANEY.
The remaining 35 are looking wealthily smug so The Rascal reminds them that the last seven winners had previously banked at least £29k in a chase win – a truth that wipes the smile from beneath the noses of SNOWY MORNING, CHELSEA HARBOUR, ERIC’S CHARM and ARBOR SUPREME. The Rascal is not a harsh imp, though, and he’ll not hold them to the sword just yet.
Let’s find that winner and have coffee with cream to nurse our hangovers on April 11th. The hunt continues…
#295
March 26th, 2010 20:32
CHASE RUNS
‘I think men who have a pierced ear are better prepared for marriage. They’ve experienced pain and bought jewellery.’ (Rita Rudner)
It’s an innocuous quote but one of The Rascal’s favourites and in this sense it is intended to suggest that experience is the mother of all gifts. When taking up poker its rarely a good idea to take a seat next to some buccaneer wearing a big fat bracelet with the letters WSOP on it – he’s going to make mince meat out of your pocket nines and bleed all the saturated fat from your pores in the form of sweat. And tears too, most likely!
You’ve got to ply your trade in the modern world and work your way up the rickety ladder of life – there’s no better gift than the gift of experience and all that babble. The Rascal watches the videos of his old school plays and his washed-out complexion is soon pink again, at least in the cheeks. That wooden delivery! That timing just a second off perfect! Training and devotion iron out our deficiencies even when we’re blessed with natural talent (as The Rascal’s form tutor used to say).
The Rascal’s first omelette was hopeless but there’ll be egg in the faces of anyone who mocks his culinary talents nowadays! Perseverance is rewarded and so it proves in the Aintree Grand National.
History tells us that experience is a knockout blow to the novices. A minimum of nine chase runs prior to success has been required of our recent National winners and so WHINSTONE BOY and BACKSTAGE are short of the necessary piercings in 2010.
MIINNEHOMA won the Grand National with just nine chase runs in the locker but that was sixteen years ago so EQUUS MAXIMUS is living a charmed life in this analysis.
The Rascal won’t be drawing attention to his big ears should he nap the winner this year but the payout may well go towards his wedding fund.
#296
March 26th, 2010 20:33
SEASON FORM
‘However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results.’ (Winston Churchill)
The year is 1986 and The Rascal is in junior school preparing to compete in a majorly anticipated paper aeroplane competition. There is urgent preparation as we fold and press the creases of our efforts and crayon our names on the wings. The week had been dour for The Rascal – two practices in the school field had seen his effort flap feebly in the wind and plonk nose-first within a toe-twitch of his feet, the origami equivalent of having your pants pulled down.
Yet on this Friday preceding the school holidays The Rascal was making finishing touches to his flight-defying shambles – how could a piece of wretched paper cause such personal shame and wreck a boy’s social standing? The injustice of it all.
Yet, if The Rascal’s future looked unlikely to be in engineering there were few amongst that class who possessed the same level of skills in observation.
The Rascal had seen nemesis-boy make a cut here, a fold there and The Rascal had heard the whoops of girls who would have babies too young in later years when nemesis-boy’s plane flew like a Fantasia creation in the practice runs.
Well, The Rascal could cut, The Rascal could fold – and so he did.
No one expected The Rascal’s paper aeroplane to win, no one saw it coming – but, on the day, no one realised that it wasn’t The Rascal’s paper aeroplane at all. It was a carbon copy of the plane that had been winning all week, only this time the wing bore a different name in crayon.
He shared his Cadbury’s Chocolate Orange prize when he won, so it wasn’t really cheating.
In finding the National winner there is nothing underhand about recognising that a known-flop is unlikely to soar without major intervention. The last twenty Grand National winners had all shown signs of ability and form in the season of their victory, all having banked at least a third place finish before turning up at Aintree.
It is apt then to dismiss those who have shown no form in the field this season and who don’t have the facility to engineer a reinvention. This eliminates MR POINTMENT, CHARACTER BUILDING, STATE OF PLAY, NOZIC, COMPLY OR DIE, PREISTS LEAP and IRISH RAPTOR.
Before you think your favourite has had the season to back up your fancy please remember that only four of the last twenty winners had failed to finish 2nd or 1st in one of their preparatory runs so there are minor concerns for those who have only managed a third place finish – MON MOME, JOE LIVELY, CLOUDY LANE, AIR FORCE ONE, OLLIE MAGERN and HELLO BUD.
The Rascal will keep them in mind though as he takes a look at the remaining 26 contenders…
#297
March 26th, 2010 20:34
STRIKE RATE
‘If we can play like that every week we’ll get some level of consistency.’ (Alex Ferguson)
It’s not how well you do something, it’s how often you do it that ultimately matters, states The Rascal (sagely).
Or, as his mother puts it, “Why don’t you do anything?”
No matter what our walk in life we’ve all had our days of glory. The paper aeroplane anecdote is just one of those that The Rascal has enjoyed and yet he has not gone on to be a professional paper-thrower, competing at the highest level against the Japanese. In actual fact the chances are his next effort, and any further efforts, would undermine the level of his previous achievement until he became famous for being a one hit wonder like Chesney Hawkes! (Evident to see why The Rascal has never ventured back to the sport of his youth with such benign consequences at stake.)
Our great sporting heroes have consistently continued to impress – there are no one and only moments that create sporting legends and it is only apt that the same is true of Grand National winners. In chase outings none of the last nineteen winners had a strike rate (that’s a top three place in a chase) of less than 40%.
The Rascal will not be urging anyone to back a horse in the greatest race in the calendar year that might or might not perform on the day. The Grand National is not a lottery, it is a great sporting occasion from which great horses have imprinted their names in the hearts of the nation. If you want to treasure April 10th 2010 until the day you die because you were on the winner, or nurse the wounds of a cruel second or third place until your story is so embellished it is a more valiant story than you could have made by picking first, then it makes sense to side with a horse that is competent and consistent.
Falling short of the 40% strike rate threshold are BLACK APALACHI, NICHE MARKET, PREISTS LEAP, CHELSEA HARBOUR, OLLIE MAGERN, HELLO BUD and KNOWHERE. It may seem contrite to dismiss a former Becher Chase winner and last year’s Irish National champion with such brutal assumption but there are deeper waters running under the currents of these trends and when The Rascal comes to giving individual appraisals on the final forty your reservations may be appeased.
The Rascal’s field is down to 19 and perseverence will see us home…
#298
March 26th, 2010 20:39
RECENT FORM
“Greatness is not in where we stand, but in what direction we are moving. We must sail sometimes with the wind and sometimes against it – but sail we must and not drift, nor lie at anchor.” (Oliver Wendell Holmes)
All our remaining contenders have met the earlier requirement of having placed in the top three in at least one of their season starts but this is not enough for The Rascal. The last twenty winners of this race have all achieved at least one of those places in at least one of their last three races.
It is no good to set yourself ablaze at home and run into town to show the world how immortal you are only to end up burnt to cinders at the bottom of your garden and embarrassingly calling your mum to come and take you to the hospital (not an anecdote, before you ask!).
Monumental achievements require momentum. Preparation is there for a horse to peak at the right time and the remaining hopefuls, in The Rascal’s view, require that all important place to be considered. It is enough to render the chances of NOTRE PERE, CLOUDY LANE, MY WILL and EQUUS MAXIMUS implausible and these four leave The Rascal’s swiftly crumbling list.
Joining them are the previously fancied BEAT THE BOYS and AIR FORCE ONE. These two look limp and lifeless prospects at the bottom of that garden since the last twenty winners had all managed to complete in at least one of their previous two runs (i.e. not pulled up, unseated or fallen). BEAT THE BOYS’ disappointing show at Cheltenham sees him fall from The Rascal’s favour as does AIR FORCE ONE who has failed to keep his jockey in his last two outings.
The Rascal’s Grand National selection will emerge from the one of the final thirteen:
MADISON DU BERLAIS
MON MOME
JOE LIVELY
VIC VENTURI
DON’T PUSH IT
DREAM ALLIANCE
CAN’T BUY TIME
SNOWY MORNING
BIG FELLA THANKS
ELLERSLIE GEORGE
ERIC’S CHARM
ARBOR SUPREME
RAZOR ROYALE
You are but a few steps away from The Rascal’s solution to this year’s conundrum. Speaking of which, in the last twenty years, the last letter of the winning horse’s name has never been a vowel for more than two consecutive years – the trend is (C=consonant, V=vowel) C-C-C-C-V-V-C-V-C-V-C-C-V-C-V-C-V-C-V-V. This would leave us with MADISON DU BERLAIS, JOE LIVELY, DON’T PUSH IT, SNOWY MORNING, BIG FELLA THANKS and ERIC’S CHARM.
Haha, don’t worry, there’ll be no lame climax to this analysis but it may be worth bearing in mind for those with other-worldly ways of narrowing the field. The Rascal believes he has a better method…
#299
March 26th, 2010 20:40
“Neil S
March 26th, 2010 19:55
Just thought I’d see if the Grand National form tool”
The information is not reliable or not up to date as an example they have AS as coming U in his last race (it was 2nd). Unless it is 100% I would not take any notice of its prediction.
#300
March 26th, 2010 20:40
WEIGHT / OFFICIAL RATING
“Tranquil pleasures last the longest; we are not fitted to bear the burden of great joys.” (Christian Nestell Bovee)
The Rascal’s loved ones will attest to the fact that he has devoted a huge percentage of, not just time, but care and sacrifice into getting his 2010 Grand National selection right. The cut and thrust of this latest guide is merely a sideshow to some pretty brutal disappointments over the last few months and a short aside to the dastardly riddle The Rascal has tried to solve amidst the pressure of appeasing last year’s disappointments.
This year the snow fell in January – and did it fall! – and BIG FELLA THANKS fell at Kempton too! The snow froze and so did The Rascal’s resolve when DREAM ALLIANCE got stung with 11 stone 3 pounds by the handicapper and went on to drag his heels at Haydock. The more work The Rascal put in the further the answer to ‘Who will win the Grand National, Rascal?’ seemed to get.
The Rascal is talking sleepless nights and half-written stuff being screwed up and thrown in the bin, the clichés of frustration in one of the most torturous routes to finding a winner he can remember. The price of failure is taken personally and with much apology, The Rascal doesn’t count it in his own coins but in those of his friends and family who have listened. For himself, The Rascal can deliberate and understand his mistakes pretty quickly – he certainly did last year – but it is still gutting when, after pumping your heart into something you care about, the blood just ends up as a bright red flush on your cheeks.
The fault lines lie in the basis that The Rascal has a proud and stubborn history in this race – only 2000 and 2009 have disappointed him to the point of abject misery. Now is the time to step up and get it right again but with the burden of eleven previous winners at the back of his mind the pressure to succeed is great.
It is the same agony of carrying previous glories on their back that has blighted the prospects of the top rated horses in the Grand National. No winning Grand National horse has carried more than 11 stone 1 pound to victory since CORBIERE lumbered 11-04 to victory in 1983. It is a trend that The Rascal has used religiously for many years and it has proved to be a very useful tool. That said, when HEDGEHUNTER became The Rascal’s ninth success in this race (2005) he had been drawing a line through entries with eleven stone or more and would have missed or dismissed his leading fancy if he hadn’t found the ability to be flexible or introspective in his system.
HEDGEHUNTER had The Rascal’s support because when weights were originally announced he was set to carry less than 11 stone and only late withdrawals saw him creep above The Rascal’s cut off point.
The same could still happen to several of the horses remaining in this analysis but the time has come not to waiver. Rather than use the physical weight to thin the list The Rascal will hold to the principle that the Official Rating of the Grand National winner has not exceeded 149 in the last nineteen renewals (OR’s were calculated on a different basis in earlier years). The Rascal parts company with MADISON DU BERLAIS, VIC VENTURI, DREAM ALLIANCE, MON MOME, JOE LIVELY and DON’T PUSH IT as a consequence.
As The Rascal’s pre-Cheltenham selection it is only fair to comment on MADISON DU BERLAIS.
MADISON went to Aintree last year and won the Totesport Bowl off an official rating of 169.
He returns this year with an official rating of 157 but a Grand National rating of 158 (due to adjustments made since weights were announced).
The Rascal highlighted MADISON DU BERLAIS as his prime selection for the Grand National before the Cheltenham Festival and has taken a flutter at the over-generous odds of 50-1. There are no doubts that he is a class act, and a big danger, but the big price on offer is purely there because he may yet skip the National and go for the Totesport Bowl double instead.
If MADISON DU BERLAIS does line up in the big one then the 50s may go but each-way value should remain for a horse with such a glitzy history. The worries are his disappointing stats in large company, one win in a field of 15 (his others are 10 or less) and he fell in the 2008 National having stayed in mid-division carrying a pound less than he would this year.
The Rascal hasn’t gone entirely cold on MADISON DU BERLAIS’ winning chances but he does believe a place is more likely. If a horse needs to peak at the right time to win the Grand National (and it does!) then The Rascal must too. The new conclusion then is that top weight is too much for MADISON.
DREAM ALLIANCE is rated 151 for the Grand National following his Welsh National win at the end of December. He ran off this new mark in February but lost his way at Haydock and eventually pulled up.
The Rascal’s pre-weights tip had only just returned from a lengthy absence when winning the Welsh National and seemed to be on course for an epic season but it now appears to The Rascal that he has been found out by the handicapper very quickly and will struggle to improve nine pounds on his best OR win in such a competitive group at Aintree.
From 55 potential winners of the Aintree Grand National The Rascal now has but seven remaining after just eight decisive trends. The conclusion is in sight…
#301
March 26th, 2010 20:42
THE HANDICAP TIME GAP
“Stay committed to your decisions, but stay flexible in your approach.” (Tim Robbins)
With some audacity, but nonetheless brutal honesty, The Rascal can say this – on the night of Monday 22nd April 2010 he could not sleep, the conclusion of this guide’s argument was very much on his conscience. Then, in the wee hours of Tuesday, the whole thing clicked in The Rascal’s mind.
The Rascal had made the same mistake as he had when PAPILLON won in 2000 and when NUMBERSIXVALVERDE won in 2006. He was ignoring what had come so naturally to him in 1992 (PARTY POLITICS), 1998 (EARTH SUMMIT), 2005 (HEDGEHUNTER) and 2008 (COMPLY OR DIE). Sometimes the winner is just staring right at you in the face and you either embrace it or ignore it depending on your prejudices or stubborn resolve to batter out a different result on your calculator.
This guide isn’t a grotesque horror movie where protagonists get slashed big time for daring to step into a separate room from their comrades. Sure, The Rascal has eliminated the likes of THE PACKAGE, TRICKY TRICKSTER, BLACK APALACHI and VIC VENTURI who all look promising contenders, but the Grand National is there to be enjoyed and everyone who reads this will want their own personal imprint on the race should they win. You’ll have your fancy, your colours, your name, maybe your favourite horse is making a play for the greatest dream of all. Back it, please, and The Rascal hopes you get a race out of your selection – the gut is a pretty strong trend as well and so is the heart. ALDANITI won and RED RUM thrice!
The Rascal’s gut, heart and analysis equals an 11 winners from 18 Grand Nationals trend. It’s up to you if you follow that trend or not. But with every ounce of emotional energy in his excitable bones The Rascal will risk failure time and again to back his own impulse in the Aintree Grand National. In the early hours of April 23rd The Rascal realised his winner of the 2010 Grand National. On doing so The Rascal slept. Yes, he slept and dreamt of paper aeroplanes and The Elbow.
But he didn’t dream of ELLERSLIE GEORGE.
Since he announced the weights for the Grand National Phil Smith (the handicapper) has been chewing his teeth at the success of some of the entries. His job is to make this contest a level playing field yet trainers are canny and can belie the strength of their entrants or get lucky when not realising the true potential of their candidatures. Of our remaining contenders BIG FELLA THANKS, ERIC’S CHARM, ARBOR SUPREME and RAZOR ROYALE are all rated higher than when the handicapper drew up the race. To coin a phrase they will all be punching below their weight, to coin another ELLERSLIE GEORGE is punching above his!
On his revised rating ELLERSLIE GEORGE would need a nine pound improvement on his previous best Official Ratings victory but Phil Smith has asked him for a twelve pound improvement. Second from last at Newbury last time out ELLERSLIE GEORGE looked a solid (and reassuring for the Grand National) front-runner but floundered as soon as he came under pressure and he jumped waywardly from there on in. The 7th and 8th form in his last two races exactly mirrors MON MOME’s pre-National form last year but the difference is MON MOME’s races were much tougher weight-wise, much longer distance-wise, and much classier… erm… class wise. Six remain then and two must leave in order for The Rascal to give you his top four and, amongst them, his winning selection for the Aintree Grand National 2010.
You are one click away…
#302
March 26th, 2010 20:44
THE CONCLUSION
“It is not the critic who counts, not the man who points out how the strong man stumbled, or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes short again and again, who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, and spends himself in a worthy cause, who at best knows achievement and who at the worst if he fails at least fails while daring greatly so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat.” (Theodore Roosevelt)
The Rascal will suffer from those that withstand his mechanics of discounting horses based on trends, of adapting those trends at certain junctures and even of pertaining to pick a Grand National winner from the outset at all! It is a goofy business and many still attest that the Grand National is a lottery, most recently spouting the unfortunate incident of CLAN ROYAL being run out of the race in 2005 as their proof.
The Gold Cup proved that there is never such a thing as a two-horse race, last year’s National proved that tides can be turned and no one is standing up to say that the Grand National is without elements of misfortune and fortune. But luck favours the winners.
The Rascal makes pains to point out that the same is true of most sporting competitions, bar perhaps Curling, but it doesn’t stop the punditry and so the quote he has chosen here is an inspiring one and it speaks of sweat and tears. The Rascal has not jumped into selecting his Grand National tip at the eleventh hour, thinking he must needs make a show of being all-knowing. This is not some show-off clip. This is his passion and has been for years. On this, if this alone, The Rascal knows what he is doing and he is an ‘over-the-years’ winner in this race. And yet, those reading this, may think he has torn it down to a two horse race. Well he has, in a way, but you can’t back them all.
There will be mockery or silence should he lose, there will be those who followed him last year after watching him come good on COMPLY OR DIE who now think that The Rascal’s win was a freak result and not MON MOME’s. They will abscond this year and be proved right or wrong. That is a decision and it’s fair play.
The Rascal though does not buckle and will not whimper if he’s wrong. There are other forces at play in this world, not just the strength of his will to nail this race. Win or lose he will still find his own advice to be the best advice in 2011, he’ll be a year wiser in fact and still in profit on the race.
The depth of The Rascal’s investment in the Grand National cannot be counted in the words on this website or the money gambled, just as the rewards cannot be counted on anything material or visible either. This is Aintree 2010 – and this time it’s personal!
He begins his conclusion with the two horses that CAN win the Grand National but WON’T have The Rascal’s money riding on them save for party bets (NB. The Rascal backs four horses in this race and his previously stated eleven winners have all been amongst these four, he has won money on Grand Nationals in sweepstakes and halves with his mates or girlfriends or purely putting a couple of quid on them for broke comrades or girls he fancies, for example, but he refers to these as party bets rather than confident selections).
CAN’T BUY TIME (The Rascal’s 6th place selection)
Since setting down to work on this year’s Grand National CAN’T BUY TIME has been prominent in The Rascal’s mind. In fact he fully expected to be giving you this horse as his number one selection when the time came. Alas, the pathway has taken a different avenue and J P Mcmanus’ horse looks right out of sync with the main eventers that look likely to line up for the big race.
It may yet be decided to put CAN’T BUY TIME up for the Topham Chase on Ladies Day instead and The Rascal would welcome that decision.
CAN’T BUY TIME is a pound lighter than when falling, having never featured, in last year’s renewal but on Official Ratings terms is actually four pounds higher this time round so any adjustment in the weights would render his cause all but hopeless.
The promise came in January, at Cheltenham, where A P McCoy rode CAN’T BUY TIME to victory in a Grade 3 handicap. He was all out to grab that win though and the consequent ratings hike has left him needing a hefty improvement in the National. He meets RAZOR ROYALE (4th in the Cheltenham race) on the same terms at Aintree and has won over three miles or further on four occasions so the chance remains but the current rating (and weight) is based on a two and a half mile win so he’s likely to be found out over two miles more as he was at Newbury last time over much less.
SNOWY MORNING (The Rascal’s 5th place selection)
SNOWY MORNING is attracting some support this year since he is currently set to carry under eleven stone in the Grand National after supporting 11-1 to a much-haled third place two years ago (two pounds lighter this year). He got round last year too – a creditable, though distant, ninth. Carrying 11-08 on his back he gallantly stayed upright despite several mistakes in his jumping.
Nine pounds lighter this year SNOWY MORNING’S chance is undoubtedly the best he’s had and probably the best he will ever have. Trained and raced with the Grand National in mind SNOWY MORNING meets The Rascal’s key trends but, in his eyes, is unlikely to bag gold on April 10th. The main concerns lie in the vocabulary used in many of the Racing Post’s form descriptive – ‘blunder’, ‘hit’, ‘mistake’ are all like to appear when SNOWY MORNING runs. It’s not that he falls all the time (three career upheavals) but the mistakes have often bruised his chances in big races and can perhaps explain just four chase wins from 23 attempts, a win rate that isn’t fatal on trends but certainly puts SNOWY MORNING out of sync with recent winners.
SNOWY MORNING’s sole win in a chase over a distance in excess of three miles came in a Grade 2 Novice Chase three years ago and only one other chase win has followed since (that’s one win from 19 chases, by the way).
Furthermore, all of SNOWY MORNING’s wins (hurdles, chases and otherwise) have come in Ireland. The Rascal is not suggesting SNOWY MORNING doesn’t travel well but he’s not a winning horse on these shores.
The Rascal is looking elsewhere for his National favorite and if the top-weights withdraw he thinks SNOWY’s current backers will be too.
And so for the The Rascal’s run-in, this is where his mind sits post-Cheltenham, and here is his conclusion to the 2010 Aintree Grand National…
4th) ARBOR SUPREME
Ireland’s big hope should he skip the Irish National and go to Aintree instead. That doubt renders him unsupportable for the time being so there may be time for CAN’T BUY TIME to sneak into The Rascal’s top four and with J P McManus holding so many potential winners this year who would blame him for diverting one to Fairyhouse?
After all, ARBOR SUPREME has only ever raced in Ireland and has a 17 pound improvement to make on his best OR win (if you give the Irish ratings three pounds that’s still a 14 pound turnaround required). That said, ARBOR SUPREME is one of few who can be trusted to stay the distance and is a relative unknown. He may well have ducked the radar not just of the pundits but of the handicapper himself and the years of Irish raiders could be revived if ARBOR SUPREME crosses the water.
Hold fire until the Irish National decision is made but if ARBOR SUPREME goes to Aintree The Rascal will be having more than a saver on this one.
3rd) ERIC’S CHARM
The talk surrounding ERIC’S CHARM is whether, with his persistent tendency to jump to his right (Aintree runs left handed), he could make this a five mile marathon for himself rather than four and a half. He put some of those demons to bed when asserting himself to victory at Newbury in his last outing and ERIC’S CHARM has emerged as somewhat of a trends phenomenon this year. A P McCoy was on board at Newbury, however, and that mastery was clearly required. McCoy won’t take the ride at Aintree.
A Class 2 win this season keeps ERIC’S CHARM on track in The Rascal’s trends but his last Class 1 place came four years ago which is a concern. ERIC’S CHARM appears to be in the form of his life, at twelve years of age, though the proof of that won’t really be known until April 10th.
Jumping could get ERIC’S CHARM into trouble at Aintree with fences like The Chair and Becher’s Brook requiring left-handed expertise but other contenders are likely to give him a wide berth in the running so, given a clear round, he could well charm the greying generation of Eric’s in the country.
The great news is that great odds are still available for this veteran chaser and he must be on most short lists and a worrying ommission if he’s not.
2nd) RAZOR ROYALE
RAZOR ROYALE will go from carrying 11-03 at the Cheltenham Festival to 10-07 at Aintree which, for a horse that has beaten NACARAT this season, is somewhat remarkable.
For information, NACARAT’s current OR is 162, RAZOR ROYALE’s is 149 but his Grand National OR is 141. Eight pounds lighter than he should be!
This new emergence in The Rascal’s Grand National radar is also one of few who has had a decent amount of runs this season. The Rascal would normally be looking for a horse with at least four prep runs during the season but the weather has rendered that very difficult for many and The Rascal has let it go this year. Well, RAZOR ROYALE meets that trend with seven season runs. Excellent.
The eight pound hike RAZOR ROYALE had to struggle with at Cheltenham may well have been a bit too much to bear after just a seventeen day interval from his rejuvenation at Kempton but he’ll be back on his Kempton mark at Aintree following a twenty-five day reprieve.
The trainer? N A Twiston-Davies! Does it need stressing more?
RAZOR ROYALE needs two more to drop out before the big day to make the cut (and they will come). He’s floating around the 40/1 mark at time of writing and if he’s not in your arsenal then you’ll regret it if you lose the war.
The Rascal is even-splits between RAZOR ROYALE and his National selection but the fact that it is becoming clear just how good this horse potentially is makes his, post-Cheltenham, Grand National winning selection…
BIG FELLA THANKS
The Rascal, rightly, gave BIG FELLA THANKS no chance last year. As a seven year old he was amongst the first to be eliminated from his analysis and would have fallen on The Rascal’s trends hurdles under number of chase runs, weight carried etc. if he hadn’t been dismissed early on already.
Yet when he ran a cracker of a race to finish sixth, as a novice, it was clear there really was something about BIG FELLA THANKS that the sensible punter should get behind. He was, back in May/June 2009, the one The Rascal was looking for in terms of this year’s race and yet it wasn’t until that sleepless night of Monday 22nd April that The Rascal chastised himself for leaving his favourite behind.
He realised that maybe, having had the hunch so early, he had worked doubly hard to erase it.
BIG FELLA THANKS couldn’t win this year’s National to the point that he stood more chance last year in The Rascal’s tainted prognosis. Thankfully, The Rascal changed his mind but unfortunately the bookmakers beat him to the conclusion.
The Rascal apologises, profusely, for nominating the favourite. He really does realise that everyone wants a big price winner in the National – he does too!
The Rascal has almost had an aversion to the favourites this year, certainly as far as BIG FELLA is concerned, which smacks of arrogance. That cloud has passed, The Rascal’s cloud has passed and at last the search is over. The Rascal’s tip for this year’s race ends in a consonant and is BIG FELLA THANKS. And please remember that in most races 8/1 would be a big price and if you’re quick 10/1 is still available in some places.
Starting with the main negative – BIG FELLA THANKS is not the most reliable jumper, he does make mistakes and it impacted upon his race last year and prevented him from getting into real contention. He unseated at Kempton in February as he had in the December of 2008 but he did get round the 30 fences at Aintree last year and only tired a couple of fences from home despite a rocky ride.
Remember, this was a young horse with no experience and no rapscallion chance of winning the Grand National. He went into 2009 carrying 11-01 but is on 10-12 this time around, three pounds lighter!
BIG FELLA THANKS is now rated 151 following a very impressive win at Newbury, five pounds below the handicap mark he has been given for the Grand National. A horse in the progressive stage of his career is always one to be on and, though that does not always translate to the Grand National in which victory is generally the peak of a colt’s career, how long have we waited for a multiple winner of this great race? For a horse with the heart and ability to come back year on year and stamp his name on Aintree? Too long.
BIG FELLA THANKS has the tank to do it and youth on his side to boot. He will be a better horse next year than this and could well be the next big thing at Aintree.
Last year was his first test in such a big race but he came out smelling of roses and as much as it is right to scoff at the price on offer (it is, as always, unreasonable) The Rascal, for one, will overcompensate with his investment to get the return he would like.
BIG FELLA THANKS has run fifteen times in his career (in all races) and has only once carried under 11 stone (nine races ago). His career form reads 12/112/322U136-2U1. The six is this race last year, when he really couldn’t win.
Well this year he can and The Rascal thinks he will. The Rascal’s recommendation for Aintree 2010 is to make sure you don’t miss out on…
RAZOR ROYALE and BIG FELLA THANKS
Back them now through the links on this site.
#303
March 26th, 2010 20:54
Systemsman thanks for the word of caution. However I’ve just placed a back up bet on the two names that it churn out. I am still keen on my initial bet of Arbor Supreme, Niche Market, and co but most of my bets this year are win only were I’ve gone each way in past, so I’am just covering my bets. Besides deep down I think I was really looking for a good reason to back these.
… and now the Life and Times of the Rascal continues…
#304
March 26th, 2010 20:55
Is tbe table I’ve added to right?
1st) Big Fella Thanks
2nd) Razor Royale
3rd) Eric’s Charm
4th) Arbor Supreme
5th) Snowy Morning
6th) Can’t Buy Time
54 arbor supreme 11 16
44 snowy morning 11 16
39 big fella thanks 8 16
36 erics charm 10 16
26 hello bud 7 16
19 state of play 5 16
14 black apalachi 3 16
13 mon mome 5 16
12 dream alliance 4 16
9 backstage 2 16
8 character build 3 16
7 vic venturi 4 16
7 ellerslie george 4 16
6 maljimar 3 16
6 bally fitz 2 16
5 the package 3 16
5 comply or die 1 16
4 niche market 3 16
3 o;;ie magern 2 16
3 beat the boys 1 16
2 chelsea harbour 1 16
7 RAzOR ROYALE 2 16
2 air force 1 1 16
2 cant buy time 2 16
#305
March 26th, 2010 21:06
Someone on here called for our bottom six. The Fonavon awards. The one who can only win if they all fall at the 23rd fence.
On my list I put Big Fella Thanks.
Last year Tom Segal picked him as his national tip, so during last season’s run I had a bet on him and noted how he ran. He seemed to be found wanting when they quicken up, tried to go with them in the race, but I concluded he wasn’t good enough. In a big field like the national that the last thing you need. Or I think so anyway.
Joe Lively would be there can’t jump.
Character Building after his last race showed no form, and I really like a grey to win, but I can’t see it being him this year.
In typical Miinnehoma style I just put the three.
Remember this is my personal view who would surprise me if they won.
#306
March 26th, 2010 21:08
Move over Willie Mullins I’am taking over AS from here! (I wish).
Just what is the man talking about (my only explanation is that he is still hiding the plot which has been going on for 12months, if the price drops less money made by all the stable, owners and contacts):
For the second time:
Won 29f Sft Nov 2008
Won 30f Gd April 2008
Won 20f Sft/Hy March 2008
2nd 21f Hy Feb 2010
2nd 28f Hy Feb 2008
3rd 25f Sft/Hy May 2009
3rd 26f Sft March 2009
3rd 24f Hy Jan 2009
3rd 21f Sft/Hy Jan 2008
So what is Willie talking about? Also looks like a spring horse to me.
The money tonight says he runs in the GN – best price now 20/1 (betfair 19/1). Corals and WH 16/1. Best backed runner today for a good reason. 8th Fav and soon be higher when we really know next week. I’am happy to back him at the bookies for a run in this years GN.
#307
March 26th, 2010 21:59
After Some Deliberation i have got my top 6 (for now) down to
1st) Arbour Supreme
2nd) Snowy Morning
3rd) Eric’s Charm
4th) State Of Play
5th) Hello Bud
6th) Dream Alliance
60 arbor supreme 12 17
49 snowy morning 12 17
40 Erics Charm 11 17
39 big fella thanks 8 17
28 hello bud 8 17
22 state of play 6 17
14 black apalachi 3 17
13 mon mome 5 17
13 dream alliance 5 17
9 backstage 2 17
8 character build 3 17
7 vic venturi 4 17
7 ellerslie george 4 17
6 maljimar 3 17
6 bally fitz 2 17
5 the package 3 17
5 comply or die 1 17
4 niche market 3 17
3 o;;ie magern 2 17
3 beat the boys 1 17
2 chelsea harbour 1 17
7 RAzOR ROYALE 2 17
2 air force 1 1 17
2 cant buy time 2 17
#308
March 26th, 2010 23:05
I now make the Black Book Revised System a 20/20 winning system now that I know Little Polveir won the Scottish National and came 1/2/3 in one of his last three races (he came 3rd).
Will post the full and final list as soon as I can.
Anyone know where I can find individual horse race results beyond twenty years?
#309
March 26th, 2010 23:25
Systemsman, its just a suggestion but how’s about Racing Post,not on line but back issues.
I remember watching Red Rums victory on greatest sporting moments (BBC) then sporting life suddenly printed the result for them days. Might be worth a try.
#310
March 26th, 2010 23:41
This Arbor supreme, thing just don’t seat nicely with me, i have spent many an hour today going through his form, quotes,post race comments and i just don’t see why he is at the top of most peoples lists, i can make a case for him being in lets say the top 10 but i just don’t see how he can win.
When you take the last 10 winners of the National and you look back through their form….sure they will have thrown in the odd bad race or even a few but on the whole they will of course have met most stats and trends that we ourselves use and have fair form, but most importantly for me they have run up against the best there is.
Apart from the odd race or a handful of lets say “good classy horses” he might have raced against Arbor supreme is maybe not as special as he seems.
It might be that as he has only ever raced up against mainly Irish horses, they maybe make him look better than he is, he has only ever raced in Ireland and apart from big meetings here in England when some Irish horses are brought over most of the season these Irish horses only race against each other and maybe run well against each other this month and maybe not as well the next.
I really see him being a Southern Vic type, you must all remember last year we rated him highly, and he did finish 8th but up against the big boys he just was not good enough, and his profile was very similar to Arbors he had shown some good form, ran some nice races, but mainly only run against a good group of Irish horses, that maybe made him look better than he really was, arguably you could say that Southern vic is a far better horse than Arbor is.
I could be proved wrong, and he could romp in and it could be a long term plan that Mr Mullins will pull off but, for me the more i study this fellow the more unlikely i see it.
#311
March 27th, 2010 00:02
Fair play to you puzzled for speaking out against the masses but i for one hope your wrong lol.
I do know where your coming from as last year i felt the exact same about Southern Vic and didnt back him but Arbor supreme just grabs me as a natural winner of the GN. Dont ask me to explain why but he just does.
I do need to do some final studying of all form and thats why i put ‘for now’ on my top 6 as i think things could change drastically over the next couple of week.
1 of the major factors i will be looking at more closely is where and whom against the form was achieved.
#312
March 27th, 2010 01:08
Oooops!!
Forecast now shows rain EVERY day in Liverpool (bar one – the Monday) from Sunday 4th April up to and including Saturday 10th April.
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/forregdaily.aspx?postcode=Liverpool%2cMerseyside&selected=0
#313
March 27th, 2010 02:22
Hello all, started following this blog religiously last year. Have a very decent record with the national but last year followed advice on here and lumped on Rambling Minister and Kilbeggan Blade. Neither featured. So I’ve been following with caution this year and intend to stick to my own hunches and form prowling, although I’d apreciate any feedback.
Arbour Supreme is very interesting I’d agree, although I’d be very wary of him not jumping out of soft ground (could well be a Mullins plot but it’s risky business thinking one knows better than the trainer!). Will be interesting to see what McCoy does.
The one I particularly like, even if he does have a lot of weight, (probably won’t back it if the weights go up though) is Vic Venturi. Ticks a lot of boxes and is surely a cracking E.W at least at 16s. He was careful over the national fences in the Becher but very nimble. (2 slightly indifferent runs in the Irish National worry me, but he beat Arbour Supreme!)
Have a few questions to pose the group about the others. Are people discounting Whinstone Boy and Backstage because their lesser known trainers have already won it? We think that they’re overpriced because of it and also that lightning doesn’t strike twice? Personally think they might be the Irish plot horses to fear, but I’d like to hear your views. I realise they haven’t run in a lot of chases, but Backstage has seen the aintree fences and a big field before (foxhunters last year I believe) and Whinstone Boy looks like the bowling along in front sort of horse who could really take to it.
Also, I think the forgotten horse on here is Irish Raptor. Do we all think he doesn’t have a chance of staying? NTWD seems particularly sweet on him and as others have pointed out hasn’t had two many runs this campaign, which I like.
Lots of options! still haven’t put any bets down yet but I’m closing in.
#314
March 27th, 2010 07:29
as i stated previously and suspected, ruby is on big fella thanks which is a massive boost to his chances and i now have more confidence in the ap. bet i have.
#315
March 27th, 2010 08:08
Well done Rascal, great analysis and I’m pleased 3 of my top 6 are in there:-
1st Razor Royale
2nd Chelsea Harbour
3rd Arbor Supreme
4th Ballyfitz
5th Snowy Morning
6th King Johns Castle
64 arbor supreme 13/17
51 snowy morning 13/17
40 erics Charm 11/17
39 big fella thanks 8/17
28 hello bud 8/17
22 state of play 6/17
14 black apalachi 3/17
13 mon mome 5/17
13 dream alliance 5/17
13 razor royale 3/17
9 backstage 2/17
8 character build 3/17
7 vic venturi 4/17
7 ellerslie george 4/17
7 chelsea harbour 2/17
6 maljimar 3/17
9 bally fitz 3/17
5 the package 3/17
5 comply or die 1/17
4 niche market 3/17
3 ollie magern 2/17
3 beat the boys 1/17
2 air force 1 1/17
2 cant buy time 2/17
1 king johns castle 1/17
#316
March 27th, 2010 08:22
Arbor Supreme deserves to be top of the tree because it fits most trends and is well in at the weights but definitely not another Rambo year. In fact I see AS drifting over the next 2 weeks because of the boggy conditions – and Chelsea Harbour (just me & you Pablo) getting more support.
This year will be a trends buster – I’m sure. Something like not won in last 10 or no recent top 3 may not matter too much when all around is F or PU – fitness more important and those all important prep runs.
#317
March 27th, 2010 08:23
Morning all, as I suspected too Mandiewandy with Ruby’s decision..Tricky will drift now..
Well Team – GREAT WORK ALL!!!
As we approach British Summer time tonight – don’t forget to turn your clocks FORWARD at 1am to 2am – can I say it’s a pleasure knowing you all and as Systemsman says – can we solve it? – YES WE CAN!!
Will post up my Top 6 tonight and it is a straight to the point, call to arms – may disagree with the current thinking on here – but I’m gonna give it to ya (oo-er).
Off out now – til tonight.
5.05pm Navan Chelsea great ew value.
Til later…
#318
March 27th, 2010 08:25
Nop me too big Chelsea fan Thai Mark – been on him for weeks now
Byeeee…
#319
March 27th, 2010 08:25
Thaimark – like your list . I suspect that based on some of your selections your half expecting a soft ground national . At least I have a kindred spirit in Ballyfitz ! I know this horses jumping is dodgy but if its a soft ground national they may go a couple of strides slower and not put his jumping under so much pressure. If the jockey can just hunt him round like richard guest on red marauder then who knows… I noticed that the two horlicks he had in the Welsh National and the Blue Square Gold cup were at open ditches . Im wondering whether he is leaving his legs behind at these fences because other than that his jumping was reasonably ok .. Then again he wont get away with that carry on at the chair or valentines. I still think though hes a class horses who could be hunted round and be involved at the finish . 2 weeks to go!
#320
March 27th, 2010 08:26
Im also a fan of Chelsea Harbour if it comes up a bog . He would be number 7 on my list..Interesting to see how he does today
#321
March 27th, 2010 09:12
I tried the Grand National tool myself on the front page
Here was my criteria
Chase Wins – 1
Run Over GN Fences – 0
Seasonal Wins – 0
Weight 10-6 -> 11-4
Chase Runs 10
OR >136
Chase Win >10k
No more than 1 Seasonal Fall
No More than 3 Career Falls
Age 8 to 12
Season Runs at least 4
It chuntered out only 5 horses
Niche Market
Snowy Morning
Razor Royale
Hello Bud
Ballyfitz
Im not sure if all the horses are actually in the database yet and looks like the form still one reace downlevel but this is a handy tool to quickly separate the wheat fromn the chaff if other normal people dont have the passionate obsessive quest to find the winner as our good selves
#322
March 27th, 2010 09:36
Re Arbor Supreme
If this one wins it will be the fist time in the last 20+ years a horse has won the GN without at least placing in a Graded chase, (ie Grade 1,2,3). To me this means the trainer thinks it has not been good enough to run with the best. The other way to look at it is that the trainer has not given the horse a chance to prove its self. I’m a great believer in stats for the GN & the Graded placing is another stat I use & hasn’t failed yet.
My horses backed so far in order are
1 Snowy Morning
2 Hello Bud
3 Dream Alliance
4 Niche Market
I will probably have a saver bet on SoP as fits all the stats except the runs before stat.
Others backed & lost on are Trabolgan, Cane Brake & Iris, the joys of AP betting!!
#323
March 27th, 2010 10:40
I’m on Chelsea as well at 100/1[but then again, I'm on everything!]
#324
March 27th, 2010 10:44
Ruby Walsh will ride the Paul Nicholls-trained Big Fella Thanks in the John Smith’s Grand National.
Walsh was also considering partnering Tricky Trickster, also from the Nicholls yard, but has instead sided with the in-form eight-year-old, owned by Paul Barber and Harry Findlay.
Big Fella Thanks is the ante-post National favourite following his impressive triumph earlier this month in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury.
Walsh told the Irish Examiner: “I confirmed yesterday (Friday) with Paul Nicholls that I’ll be aboard Big Fella Thanks for the Grand National at Aintree in a fortnight.
“The horse has been motoring well and had a good look around the course last year as a novice.
“He started this season off 150 and has been given 146 in the National and you would hope he will prove extremely competitive, especially after his impressive victory over an inadequate trip at Newbury recently.
“He’ll also be on the right side of 11st, so I reckon there’s a good chance we’ll get around and leave a few behind us.
#325
March 27th, 2010 11:26
Re: Grand National tool
Silver Birch I think AS should be in that list using your criteria (but I know they dont have his last race result listed) which is why the results are unreliable.
Admin can you update the results for the Grand National tool so its is accurate!
Now I’am looking for my last bet or a good saver bet, what is it to be?
BFT 4th in our top six list (but not in my black book list). No value
TT Not in out top six list but in my black book list if and only if weights do not go up.Little value.
VV – on 11.06 currently, a small outside chance if weights dont go up
Or just put more on
SM, EC, AS
Whats it to be?
#326
March 27th, 2010 11:30
David Pipe in the mirror today hints that Madison will run: “We are leaning towards running Madison”
Not definite but would be good news for horses like Dream Alliance, Mon Mome and Niche Market. HE also lists Piraya as a def. like teh horse but don’t see it as a national horse too inexperienced. Says Timmy could ride either CoD or Package no definite decisions on if they run.
#327
March 27th, 2010 11:37
From the Arbor Supreme fans club HQ
“Volty
March 27th, 2010 09:36
Re Arbor Supreme
If this one wins it will be the fist time in the last 20+ years a horse has won the GN without at least placing in a Graded chase, (ie Grade 1,2,3). To me this means the trainer thinks it has not been good enough to run with the best. The other way to look at it is that the trainer has not given the horse a chance to prove its self. I’m a great believer in stats for the GN & the Graded placing is another stat I use & hasn’t failed yet.”
Wrong and wrong aagin:
28Feb10 Leo 21Hy HcCh 23K 11-8 2/16 1¾L, Stewarts House[12/1]10-4 GRADE B
02May09 Pun 25Sft/Hy HcCh 37K 11-4 3/17 3½L, Ambobo[11/2]10-13 GRADE B
22Jan09 Gow 24Hy HcCh 63K 11-4 3/18 13L, Preists Leap[13/2]10-10 GRADE A
29Nov08 Fai 29Sft HcCh 19K 10-8 1/18 5L, Forest Leaves[11/2F]9-11 GRADE C
03Feb08 Pun 28Hy HcCh 16K 10-3 2/15 7L, Chelsea Harbour[3/1F]11-10 GRADE C
Volty your list is great in my opinion if you add AS and EC to it.
#328
March 27th, 2010 11:42
Brody great news if Madison was to run and as you say it would give DA and NM, TT and even possibly just VV (but unlikley)a chance. It it happens a few may need to revise there views on NM I think (NM, DA and TT are in the black book selections {20/20] if weights do not go up).
#329
March 27th, 2010 12:04
Systemsman
March 27th, 2010 11:37
Re From the Arbor Supreme fans club HQ
Perhaps somebody could correct me if i’m wrong but the Irish call our equivalent Class 1,2 etc Grade A,B, etc. This is not the same as Graded races if this makes sense. A Full Graded chase is stated as, (from Arbor S. form, RP website)
Cor 24Sft/Hy NvHG3 (G in race description, Graded race)
Pun 25Sft/Hy HcCh (Not a Graded race, but our equivalent of class 2)
#330
March 27th, 2010 12:20
Below the best performances in Grade 1 and 2 chases or ‘handicapper’ where horse has only acheived a place in a graded handicap (all the major Nationals are among the graded handicaps)
Miinnehoma – won RSA Grade 1
Royal Athlete – 3rd Gold Cup Grade 1
Rough Quest – 2nd Gold Cup Grade 1
Lord Gyllene – 2nd Grade 2 Novices’
Earth Summit – handicapper
Bobbyjo – 2nd Heineken Gold Cup Grade 1
Papillon – won Newlands Chase Grade 1
Red Marauder – handicapper
Bindaree – won Grade 2 Novices’
Monty’s Pass – handicapper
Amberleigh House – won Grade 2
Hedgehunter – handicapper
Numbersixvalverde – handicapper
Silver Birch – handicapper
Comply Or Die – 2nd RSA Grade 1
Mon Mome – handicapper
Note: Hedgehunter did win the Bobbyjo Chase (Grade 3) and Numbersixvalverde was placed 3rd in a Novices’ Grade 3
However, Hedgehunter won the Grand National Trial in Punchestown on his 4th start over fences (no Graded starts beforehand) and Arbor Supreme came 2nd in the same race 5 years later on his 5th start over fences
Hedgehunter had started 4 times over 3.5 miles or more he won the National and Arbor Supreme has started 5 times over 3.5 miles or more
Hedeghunter had won a Thyestes (Arbor 3rd one year, UR the next) and Hedgehunter had raced in one GN, one Hennessy and one Welsh before he won
So Hedgehunter clearly had better credentials
But both were identified as National types & handicappers early in their careers and did not go down the Graded Novices’ route
#331
March 27th, 2010 12:23
Hedgehunter clearly an exceptional horse of course
#332
March 27th, 2010 12:26
I’am sure the experts can help us with the Irish grading system. I’ve always assume that Irish Grdae A and B was rougthly the same as UK Class 1 – not sure about Irish Garde C (must at least be UK Class 2). Can anyone help?
With Irish horses that have mostly raced or only raced in Ireland you have to be careful when reading the form. As an example the TS rating is not always given for Irish races. I have been caught out in the past on the Grand National miss reading irish from, especiely those that mainly or only race in Ireland.
Now AS has run in a UK equivilant of a Class 1 and I wrong or not? There are people on this site who can give us a correct answer so can you please help?
#333
March 27th, 2010 12:31
Pablo
As can be seen from your post my point is that all GN winners had at least placed in a Grade3 chase or higher & this is why I’m not as keen on Arbor S. He has really good H’cap form in some good races but is this good enough form for a National winner. I think its really difficult this year as there is no stand out horse below the magical 11st.
#334
March 27th, 2010 12:49
Re Systemsman
As far as I can tell, all Arbor S. form is in the Eqivelent of our class 2 or lower except this race where he placed in a class 1
22Jan09 Gow 24Hy HcCh 63K 11-4 3/18 13L, Preists Leap[13/2]10-10
No class 1 win though?
#335
March 27th, 2010 12:49
But AS has placed in the Grade A Thyestes – doesn’t that count?
#336
March 27th, 2010 12:54
Hi people,
I’ve been reading this site with interest for months – I think the thoughts and effort that people put in is fantastic, so thanks all.
For what it’s worth my top 6 is as follows:
1. Big Fella Thanks
2. Snowy Morning
3. Niche Market
4. Majilmar
5. Black Apalachi
6. Dream Alliance
I’m pretty happy with my top 3 and I like Majilmar as an outsider, (though appreciate he’s nowhere on trends!) but could easily swap 5 & 6 for Hello Bud, Vic Venturi or even Mon Mome.
I find Erics Charm interesting, but can’t have him on the grounds that I don’t think he can win a 36f race jumping left handed.
I have also looked at Arbor Supreme, and if he does run I will most likely have a saver on him as he stacks up well on trends. However I just don’t see him having the quality to win a race like the national. Hasn’t beaten anything really this season and I just can’t be having him on the back of a 5l win against Black Apalachi getting well over a stone, and I can’t see how finishing 16l behind Big Zeb can possibly indicate the horse can win the national and is being touted as “evidence”.
Anyways good luck to all and hope we all back the winner! Update standings (I believe) are as follows:
64 arbor supreme 13/18
56 snowy morning 14/18
45 big fella thanks 9/18
40 erics Charm 11/18
28 hello bud 8/18
22 state of play 6/18
16 black apalachi 4/18
13 mon mome 5/18
14 dream alliance 6/18
13 razor royale 3/18
9 maljimar 4/18
9 bally fitz 3/18
9 backstage 2/18
8 niche market 4/18
8 character build 3/18
7 vic venturi 4/18
7 ellerslie george 4/18
7 chelsea harbour 2/18
5 the package 3/18
5 comply or die 1/18
3 ollie magern 2/18
3 beat the boys 1/18
2 air force 1 1/18
2 cant buy time 2/18
1 king johns castle 1/18
#337
March 27th, 2010 13:13
Volty, taking your point with Arbor, systems did mention a grade A, even with your liberal view point does that not count, or are you just making excuses to back your judgment.
#338
March 27th, 2010 13:27
Volty I think the general trend rule is won Class 1 or won class 2 and placed 1/2/3 in class 1 – he fits this dont you agree?
#339
March 27th, 2010 13:49
Systemsman
March 27th, 2010 13:27
Volty I think the general trend rule is won Class 1 or won class 2 and placed 1/2/3 in class 1 – he fits this dont you agree?
Yes I agree with that, the only thing extra I look for is the Graded placing but thats just my view point. Perhaps I’m being to over critical into the form or perhaps I’ve miss understood the difference between Irish & our ratings. Arbor has some fantastic form especially its last run however to me, it just does not look like a National winner. If we all agreed on everything this would be a very sad & boring blog. Its this great debate that will hopefully find the winner for us all. If Arbor does win I will come on here & congratulate you all that backed it & kick myself for not listening to you all. I would however be greatful if somebody would kindly explain the diffences in Graded races in Ireland & how they relate to our system if I’ve got my interpretation wrong.
#340
March 27th, 2010 13:50
Does anyone know why Chelsea Harbour pulled out of todays race?
Do hope I haven’t lost another National entry, ever since seeing the Scotish National i had assured myself that gone to lunch would win, then lost iris de balme so my high odds on BFT and AS ( if he runs ) have been wiped out by my non runners, next year i think i will wait to the second dec before i back any
#341
March 27th, 2010 14:05
Noted the above ‘shouts’ for Chelsea Harbour for GN and saying if it comes up a bog etc etc.
Well it ran in a bog last time 2m7f hurdles and was last to finish of 14 a distance behind the next to last horse (king Johns Castle actually…)….and thats GN winning form???
Umm is there an app for that then???
#342
March 27th, 2010 14:17
I’m away for the weekend now. Really pleased I found this site, I look forward to more debate & banter next week. Hope you all have a good weekend.
#343
March 27th, 2010 14:19
Disappointed Chelsea Harbour isn’t running today but then he was >200 when I backed him on Betfair so I can live with that
At those odds Nick I’m not looking for a horse to tick all the boxes and his last run was disappointing – he was reported to “have hung badly right throughout” and was never put in the race
However in his defence he is well-in on his best form and the manner in which he won the Punchestown Grand National Trial in 2008 would give him an excellent chance on soft or worse ground
But I guess it’s looking dodgy that he will be back to his best form
If he was in good form he would’t be 100/1 at the bookies now would he?
#344
March 27th, 2010 14:33
It may not win the national but at odds of 240/1 it makes for an exciting race if he finishes again.
if it does turn out to be a bog anything can happen, or is it wishfull thinking after last years winner expecting lightning to strike twice!!
#345
March 27th, 2010 15:00
The value of the race is a clue. I would say apart from the obvious G3 Hcap, the Thyestes @ 63K/51K Grade A Hcap is a C1 race. The Grade’s B&C Hcaps I would think are C2 races.
#346
March 27th, 2010 15:20
Lol you’ve got to laugh at one of the remaining archaic mediums – the weather forecast.
A few hours later and now race week is forecast as nearly DRY all week from nearly WET all week late late last night lol.
Guess we’ll not know til week of race..
#347
March 27th, 2010 15:28
The first leg of the spring double just finished and Penitent has won at 3/1, wonder how many doubled him up with current national favorite Big Fella Thanks.
#348
March 27th, 2010 15:32
Gutted if Chelsea doesn’t run today. More twists and turns this year than Wacky’s Enders.
Silver – if the Harbour has an issue, I’m gonna refer back to your superb list of load luggers to find an alternative, namely…
Niche Market
Dream Alliance
Tricky Trickster
My Will
Snowy Morning
Character Building
Chelsea Harbour
Ballyfitz
Erics Charm
Ollie Magern
Arbor Supreme
Parsons Pistol
Hello Bud
#349
March 27th, 2010 15:58
Thats a shame about Chelsea – theres a comment in the Racing post to say that they have kind of rushed him back from an injury a bit and maybe thats something to do with why hes not running today. More twist and turns ! Certainly more doubt if he’ll turn up or not..
Thaimark – hope its given u an idea of some solid stayers . I reckon were going to need them the way the weathers going..!!
#350
March 27th, 2010 15:58
Fair point Pable re CH but am more of an old school current form ‘bookies dont do us any favours so they are 100/1 for a very good reason’ man…
Just to add I have KJC a/p at 66′s (since entries first out but pre weights) and all but threw my slip in the recycling box after the race where CH was behind him….
On another point, does Ruby W have the choice of one of PN’s and WM’s or does PN have first call on him? If he does have a choice then chosing BFT must be a slight negative (and more) re SM…am assuming AS as a McManus horse is an AP McCoy option…
I wasnt over sure BFT got home last year but was only 7 and if RW has a choice of several am sure he wouldnt beon if he thought it wouldnt stay the trip now a year older. Trouble is the bookies will clip it 2 or 3 points now so becoming zero value….
#351
March 27th, 2010 16:20
just noticed CDG now into 20-1 , surely has no chance of getting into the national ?????????
#352
March 27th, 2010 16:26
Nick – I find the antepost betting on the National facsinating since any horse that puts in any kind of run after weights out gets cut by the bookies (it’s clearly not all money-based – they really do hunt in packs in the Betfair era)
To me this means that there is always value available even on raceday (or at least during raceweek) plus there is always the money that goes on Ruby and AP regardless of whether their horses are well-handicapped (plus Nicholls & Mullins horses usually under-priced)
Many times the winner has not contested a high profile race as a final prep
I’ll update my movement in odds table since weights out at some point over the weekend and then perhaps we can discuss where the value lies
#353
March 27th, 2010 16:34
Yes SilverBirch more twists lol.
Guys as someone requested earlier if we can even just shorten names but not just intial them – there’s gonna be LOADS of posts coming in over the next fortnight and I for one agree can be bothered/don’t have time to keep remembering which of the 75 left in that the initials are referring to lol.
#354
March 27th, 2010 17:11
Ok Pablo thats cool….I do look at the handicap for value esp as the GN framed 2months before the off…but would appreciate any value thoughts in the final week…
Watching Backstage over 2m 4f…on heavy…held out the back first 2 miles….poor run…and Made In Taipan 2nd…oh well there goes one of my top 6 already…
#355
March 27th, 2010 17:14
Backstage didnt jump well at all…..regardless of other factors…so it will not be backed (no pun intended) by me now…and as MM and BFT will have little value in them I might have to look beyond my top 6 for my 4th bet!!!
#356
March 27th, 2010 17:15
Sorry Shwld….Mon M and Big Fella T…;)
#357
March 27th, 2010 17:45
OK my view on Arbor Supreme:
A promising enough start in his career over flat and hurdles and then showed a promising enough of a start to his chase career, which on 5th time out showed progress with a noteworthy 2nd to Chelsea Harbour, who was 2 years older but still giving Arbor 21 lbs and a sound 7l beating.
Then a pleasing enough showing followed with a 4th, a win and a 5th in his next 3 runs over relatively unremarkable chases.
Then his running takes on a new top class potential when he wins the Dunboyne in a field of 24. Though in receipt of 21lbs and 23lbs from Black Apalachi and Point Barrow, still a great run and they trail in 2nd and 6th in a quality field over a stamina testing 30f.
A rise of 12lbs for his next chase in a decent field of 18 at Fairyhouse and the form continues with him winning again over 28f.
Now comes a subsatantial rise in class in the Thystes and he gets a creditable 3rd, although giving in 10lbs to winner Priest’s Leap and only 2lbs to Chelsea Hrabour, the now 7 year old Arbor, gets a sound 13l and 9l length beating.
So for me at this point no more and certainly no less than possibly 1 great run, proven stamina and bags of potential for the future.
At this point the progress halts somewhat with a 3l beating coming 3rd to One Cool Cookie, who was still giving Arbor 10lbs. No disgrace but the superb momentum halted.
Then, for me, comes a MAJOR black mark. Arbor liked Fairyhouse, winning on his last time out there, and here comes the BIG BIG test of that earlier potential. The stamina length was there – over 29f – and (according to Mullins) ground he should like in Good. He is towards rear for most and NEVER A FACTOR finishing just in top half, coming in 14th out of 28 runners. His first big test (as we like in the 30/30 stat: a Gold Cup, Hennessy, Irish, Scots Welsh or English Nat place) and a big fat ZERO.
Following month a good 3rd in the Pat Taafe chase in a high quality field. Again lots of promise if not brilliance. Then his form takes walkabout for 9 months including a dreadful run in the Thystes, reversing his good run of a year earlier, and in style ‘at back, nowhere’ very similar to his Irish Nat run before eventually UR.
Last month a creditable, top weight carrying, 2nd in an unremarkable field.
Now, I ask myself does this horse merit top of the leader board in our Top 6 table? Well my answer is a clear NO.
Is there an element of the ‘dark horse’ attraction?
Is there somewhat of a ‘getting swept up together’ in a fashion slightly reminiscent of Rambo last year on this blog?
Well the answer to that would be YES and YES.
Is he then a false trail, a damp squib?
Well to confuse matters further, NO.
However herein lies THE ANSWER!!
Arbor Supreme has bags of potential and great stakes to POSSIBLY great GN winner claims.
He is NOT, for me, in the league of Niche Market, Dream Alliance and Hello Bud who have PROVEN themselves in the Big Race field Class 1 races with WINS.
Conclusion: ARBOR SUPREME has to be on everyone’s leading longer list of strong contenders and is a very possible winner of the 2010 Grand National.
However, that win would mean him being VERY progressive and is not currently something he has SHOWN that he DEFINTELY possesses and CAN deliver, unlike Dream, Niche and Hello.
He is rightly a BIG tip and of very high regard in this year’s considerations but, whether he wins in 2 weeks time or not, his place at the top of our table I feel is CURRENTLY very overblown from what he has shown so far.
#358
March 27th, 2010 18:17
I think thats a very good synopsis showlad and I would agree with you . A lot of people have latched onto him because he has a low weight and is a definite stayer. I think on the balance of what he has done his price is getting plenty short enough and he hasnt done it in a “national” so there are still nagging doubts whether he is good enough . However 10-8 is a beautiful weight and youd be a brave man to not at least have him on your side…
#359
March 27th, 2010 18:31
Is Tricky Trickster becoming backable at 27/1 on betfair?
#360
March 27th, 2010 18:37
Showlad & Silver Birch – it’s a dilemma for sure with old Arbor Supreme
Trainer states that he’s better on good ground than softer (we know that they get this wrong sometimes)
But he clearly appreciates a trip and is still only 8
The Irish run was bitterly disappointing – although the only hold up horses to win since 1998 (as far back as I have gone) have carried 10’0 or less – AS carried 10’12 in Irish last year (12 lb extra ring any bells?)
And as for this year’s Thyestes – not many got into the race this year so I’m not sure how to rate the form
In AS’s favour, hold up horses have won the GN – Numbersixvalverde (held up) and Amberleigh House (behind) are two recent examples
So I think it’s dangerous to write him off but he is not as proven as other recent Irish winners
But it’s a funny old year…
#361
March 27th, 2010 18:37
Been wondering how to approach this list.
First list the pre-new year one was all about the key races and what the racing post and my own opinion on what could improve from there.
Niche Market from that list has ran solid races, while Dream Alliance sort of like spat out the dummy, but unlike Gone To Lunch he can redeem himself. Boy, oh boy Gone To Lunch his season’s been a nightmare, what can I say, I am only saved myself a bet on him because I thought that the national was not his first choice. I have however bets on Niche Market and Dream Alliance.
List Two was based on dosage, the theory that of a horses stamina and speed. Red Rum I quite intrigued about for want of a better term (the female dosage) I know its not called dosage but something else, where can I learn more about it. Anyway Ellerslie George first appeared in that list and while I like his dosage and he has won over 3 miles, I think he lacks class.
List three I was getting close to what could win it and Irish Raptor first appeared, he was beaten by Eric Charm in the London National, Eric is becoming a talking horse on this blog.
This time its personal though the first of two lists where I be putting up six of the best that I’ve backed, not necessary what can win me the most.
6 pts goes to Arbor Supreme (sorry Volty, I likes what I sees and he ready to run a big race).
5pts goes to Mon Mome (stayed on well in gold cup, could he become a dual winner).
4pts goes to Vic Venturi (at first I wasn’t too keen on him, even though I backed him in the bechers, however I did note he jumped the canal turn best of all and finished well. He might well repeat that on big day. Plus the only thing lacking for me was form in a big field, discovered that he’s already met that stat).
3pts Comply Or Die another previous winner who didn’t run to badly in the early stages of the William Hill Trophy at Cheltenham.
2pts Niche Market been sweet on his chances all season, if he runs the same kinda race he ran when winning at Fairyhouse (Irish National)
1pt Dream Alliance if and its a big if you can forgive him his last run then he still has a chance, especially if everyone’s predicting a wet Aintree.
The only casuality this year for me was Iris De Balme.
Apart from the six mentioned I got in no particular order, Mr Pointment, Irish Raptor, State Of Play, Snowy Morning.
Table: I believe I’am the 22nd member on the table, please do try and update it.
70 Arbor Supreme 14/22
51 Snowy Morning 13/22
40 Eric’s Charm 11/22
39 Big Fella Thanks 8/22
28 Hello Bud 8/22
22 State Of Play 6/22
18 Mon Mome 6/22
14 Black Apalachi 3/22
13 Razor Royale 3/22
11 Vic Venturi 5/22
9 Backstage 2/22
9 Ballyfitz 3/22
8 Character Building 3/22
8 Comply Or Die 2/22
7 Chelsea Harbour 2/22
7 Ellerslie George 4/22
6 Maljimar 3/22
6 Niche Market 4/22
5 The Package 3/22
3 Beat The Boys 1/22
3 Ollie Magern 2/22
2 Air Force One 1/22
2 Can’t Buy Time 2/22
1 Dream Alliance 1/22
1 King Johns Castle 1/22
#362
March 27th, 2010 18:39
Arbor Supreme into 14s with Bet365, but 20-1 with Stan James and NRNB
#363
March 27th, 2010 18:57
Not a flat fan, but the Dubai World cup was absolutely brilliant, will definitely be making my way over next year
Really liked AS’s chances for the national at the start of the year, i have him covered AP, but i would be very cautious about backing him right now. There are no doubts about his staying ability and he’s taken some notable scalps whilst being ahead of the handicapper. He’s ran respectably in the Thyestes last year and last time out over a shorter trip.
The national was clearly the plan at the start of the season and he was set to copy the same route as Hedgehunter with the hennessy/welsh nat/thyestes. Unfortunately the Mullins stable were really struggling before xmas and he hasnt had the chances in some of the top races this year, which begs the question of whether he is able to compete at the top level off his current mark? There is very little evidence to show that he can.
the horses Mullins has put in the national in the past few years have had plenty of runs under them and been nicely prepped, AS being backed on the basis of just one performance this season. In conlusion, i think he’d be heading to the national under prepared and wouldn’t be surprised at all if he’s a N/R
#364
March 27th, 2010 18:58
think my top 6 has been lost on the table, will update it later
#365
March 27th, 2010 19:00
re arbor supreme — showaddy waddy watch out tin hat time here comes systems.and here was me hopeing for a quiet w/e.
#366
March 27th, 2010 19:09
TC you were the 15 member on the table your current six were: Ollie Magern, Snowy Morning, Hello Bud, Mon Mome, Arbor Supreme & Chelsa Harbour.
At least thats what I assume.
#367
March 27th, 2010 19:12
Showwaddy Waddy that only remains for you to add yours and close this session, unless some late comers want to chip in, your perfectly entired to your votes.
#368
March 27th, 2010 19:14
think thats right Neil, they’re bound to change again!!
i’ll let you do the honours
#369
March 27th, 2010 19:21
Beware long post!
Remaining 75 runners and how prices have moved since before weights
N.B. Prices are best prices at the bookies quoted on oddschecker.com
Movement; Pre weights; Post weights; After Bobbyjo; Pre Cheltenham; After Midlands; Horse
In; 21; 21; 21; 11; 9; Big Fella Thanks
In; 26; 26; 34; 26; 13; Mon Mome
In; 21; 21; 17; 17; 17; Black Apalachi
In; 41; 41; 34; 34; 17; The Package
Out; 17; 17; 17; 17; 19; Niche Market
Out; 13; 13; 13; 13; 21; Tricky Trickster
In; 26; 26; 17; 17; 21; Vic Venturi
In; 26; 21; 21; 21; 21; Backstage
In; 34; 26; 26; 26; 21; State Of Play
In; 41; 41; 41; 26; 21; Arbor Supreme
In; 41; 34; 34; 26; 26; Snowy Morning
In; 34; 34; 34; 34; 26; Character Building
Out; 26; 26; 26; 26; 29; Comply Or Die
In; 41; 41; 41; 41; 29; Cant Buy Time
In; 41; 34; 34; 34; 34; Ballyholland
In; 101; 101; 101; 101; 34; Chief Dan George
Out; 34; 41; 34; 34; 41; Whinstone Boy
No change; 41; 41; 41; 41; 41; My Will
No change; 41; 41; 41; 41; 41; Maljimar
No change; 41; 41; 41; 41; 41; Irish Raptor
Out; 41; 41; 41; 41; 51; Dont Push It
In; 81; 81; 81; 41; 51; Razor Royale
Out; 34; 34; 51; 51; 51; Dream Alliance
No change; 51; 51; 51; 51; 51; Hello Bud
No change; 51; 51; 51; 51; 51; King Johns Castle
No change; 51; 51; 51; 51; 51; Palypso De Creek
In; 67; 67; 67; 51; 51; Cloudy Lane
In; 67; 67; 67; 67; 51; Ballytrim
Out; 41; 41; 51; 51; 67; Notre Pere
Out; 51; 51; 51; 51; 67; Silver Birch
Out; 51; 51; 51; 51; 67; Madison Du Berlais
No change; 67; 51; 51; 67; 67; Air Force One
No change; 67; 67; 67; 67; 67; Abbeybraney
No change; 67; 67; 67; 67; 67; Flintoff
No change; 67; 67; 67; 67; 67; Treacle
No change; 67; 67; 67; 67; 67; Ballyfitz
No change; 67; 67; 67; 67; 67; Cerium
In; 101; 101; 101; 67; 67; Erics Charm
Out; 51; 101; 101; 101; 67; Offshore Account
Out; 67; 67; 67; 67; 81; Joe Lively
No change; 81; 81; 81; 101; 81; Dooneys Gate
No change; 81; 81; 81; 101; 81; Nozic
Out; 81; 81; 81; 81; 101; Beat The Boys
Out; 67; 67; 67; 101; 101; Ellerslie George
Out; 67; 101; 101; 101; 101; Galant Nuit
Out; 81; 81; 81; 101; 101; Equus Maximus
Out; 81; 101; 101; 101; 101; Deutschland
No change; 101; 101; 101; 101; 101; Merigo
No change; 101; 101; 101; 101; 101; Preists Leap
No change; 101; 101; 101; 101; 101; Chelsea Harbour
No change; 101; 101; 101; 101; 101; According To John
No change; 101; 126; 126; 101; 101; Piraya
No change; 101; 101; 101; 101; 101; Officier De Reserve
No change; 101; 151; 151; 151; 101; Over The Creek
In; 151; 201; 201; 201; 101; Faasel
Out; 101; 101; 101; 101; 126; Conna Castle
Out; 101; 101; 101; 101; 126; Belon Gale
Out; 101; 151; 151; 151; 151; Kings Advocate
Out; 101; 151; 151; 151; 151; Pablo Du Charmil
Out; 101; 151; 151; 151; 151; Made In Taipan
No change; 151; 151; 151; 151; 151; Mr Pointment
No change; 151; 151; 151; 151; 151; Knowhere
No change; 151; 151; 151; 151; 151; Ollie Magern
No change; 151; 151; 151; 151; 151; Royal Rosa
Out; 101; 201; 201; 201; 151; Oodachee
Out; 101; 201; 201; 201; 201; Chiaro
Out; 101; 201; 201; 201; 201; Anothercoppercoast
Out; 151; 201; 201; 201; 201; Duers
Out; 151; 201; 201; 201; 201; Lennon
Out; 101; 251; 251; 251; 201; Pomme Tiepy
Out; 151; 251; 251; 251; 251; Pak Jack
Out; 201; 251; 251; 251; 251; Lorum Leader
Out; 201; 251; 251; 251; 251; Cossack Dancer
Out; 201; 501; 501; 501; 501; Wee Robbie
No change; 501; 501; 501; 501; 501; Offaly
#370
March 27th, 2010 19:22
Can’t be ar*ed to analyse it now but hopefully it will give a good picture of which horses (and why) have moved in the market
#371
March 27th, 2010 19:27
Pablo, most people just put beware of the dog sign, lol. .Tc don’t get offended by this but is your gender female in which case its your right to change your mind. Only joking, sorry if I offended anyone with that remark.
#372
March 27th, 2010 19:51
Re the odds…what price would Cheif DG be if was likely to get in the 40??
And flat racing…nope…you lost me….is that the thing where they have 6 or 7 bumpers on the card then??
#373
March 27th, 2010 20:53
I reckon if he gets in he’ll be close to favouritism [is that a proper word?].
#374
March 27th, 2010 20:54
Any thoughts on Ellerslie George? Looks quite good on the stats, including, OR, weight, form, 3m+ cls 1 winner, goes on good-soft/soft and ran at Aintree before, not to well but has the experience,won in field of 14+runners, unexposed too.
#375
March 27th, 2010 21:06
Matriarch:
Elleslie G. was 50+l behind Erics Charm last run getting 6lbs and is giving EC 1lb at Aintree so by that one measure it doesnt look good…
Also he was hopelessly tailed off in last years Topham…
I know it meets a lot of stats but its last run (current form) and Aintree run doesn’t inspire…
#376
March 27th, 2010 21:17
Yes Maureen it is a proper word!
Its very unlikely he will get in as it needs 17 to come out as he is 57. Usually from this point you can expect 4 or 5 to drop out but with the Irsh Nat being before the GN then perhaps anther couple who have dual entries might opt for IN so its numbers 46-48 who are really sweating….49-51 hoping against hope and 52+ probably resigned to not getting in….
#377
March 27th, 2010 21:23
Neil S how come you have only given Dream alliance 1 point in your updated table when he had 13 prior to you putting your update on.
Is the table still right?
Admin can we have a seperate thread for just posting our top 6 as its getting lost in translation in this one.
#378
March 27th, 2010 21:35
Sorry, my fault. Should have looked properly.
#379
March 27th, 2010 21:41
Showlad when you put your list in Dream Alliance should read 14 & 6/22.
#380
March 27th, 2010 21:52
Not exactly scientific but is anyone else pleased that Nicholls has a shocking record in the National and has the favourite yet again! Recall how well My Will was backed into favouritism on the eve of the National last year. Long may he stay at 7/1 – what a ridiculous price. He should be about 3/1 just to get there!
#381
March 27th, 2010 22:06
Managed to lay off most of my exposure to Chelsea Harbour today because he was a non runner and subsequently read in the RP write-up of the race he missed that he’s lame
Still leaves me with an almost full bank to bet on the race
If only I could find something to bet on apart from Arbor, Big Fella, Mon Mome, Snowy – all short prices!
#382
March 27th, 2010 23:02
Come on Pablo you can still just get 20/1 on Arbor Supreme and a resonable price on Snowy so we must not get too greedy (dont forget Eric’s Charm either 50/1 available in the high street). Less than two weeks now to make your mind up.
Hope to post my final black book system list by wednesday night at the latest.
#383
March 27th, 2010 23:09
Corected talbe.
70. Arbor Supreme 14/22
51. Snowy Morning 13/22
40. Eric’s Charm 11/22
39. Big Fella Thanks 8/22
28. Hello Bud 6/22
22. State Of Play 6/22
18. Mon Mome 6/22
14. Black Apalachi 3/22
14. Dream Alliance 6/22
13. Razor Royale 3/22
11. Vic Venturi 5/22
09. Backstage 2/22
09. Ballyfitz 3/22
08. Character Building 3/22
08. Comply Or Die 2/22
07. Chelsea Harbour 2/22
07. Ellerslie George 4/22
06. Maljimar 3/22
06. Niche Market 4/22
05. The Package 3/22
03. Beat The Boys 1/22
03. Ollie Magern 2/22
02. Air Force One 2/22
02. Can’t Buy Time 1/22
01. King Johns Castle 1/22
#384
March 27th, 2010 23:20
Sorry Neil S -
Showlad, you are the keeper of the table -
rascal used the wrong table, infact the points were wrong after only 3 votes – dear, dear, dear. Blimey, we can’t only have 22 posters, now the rest of you don’t be shy – vote, vote.
76 arbor supreme 16 22
68 snowy morning 15 22
44 erics charm 12 22
39 big fella thanks 8 22
35 hello bud 10 22
25 dream alliance 8 22
22 state of play 6 22
21 mon mome 7 22
16 vic venturi 6 22
14 black apalachi 3 22
13 razor royal 3 22
11 ollie magern 3 22
09 backstage 2 22
09 ballyfitz 3 22
08 comply or die 2 22
08 character building 3 22
08 chelsea harbour 3 22
07 ellerslie george 3 22
07 maljimar 4 22
06 niche market 4 22
05 the package 2 22
03 beat the boys 1 22
02 air force one 1 22
02 cant buy time 2 22
01 king johns castle 1 22
#385
March 27th, 2010 23:42
erics charm 6pts
dream alliance 5pts
razor royal 4pts
snowy morning 3pts
niche market 2pts
arbor supreme 1 pt
#386
March 27th, 2010 23:48
We have a new member comply or cry whose points need adding to table. Thanks miinne was following on from Thai Mark.
#387
March 27th, 2010 23:51
Wrong after 3 votes and people point out my mistakes.
#388
March 28th, 2010 00:03
Hi Guys. Miinehoma I created the TOP 6 TIPSTERS LEAGUE for our Blog, but no, lol, I’m not the keeper of the table.
Yes I’ll show the final updates, changes and will give analysis. But when you give your votes, the giver is entirely responsible for adding them in to the rolling table. Unless you are decent like Mandie and ask for someone to do this for you at the time.
Neil have no idea where ‘Comply or Cry’s’ post is, if you do then please amend and if you don’t have time/the inclination to do so, lol, I fully understand.
Apart from that – if you don’t add your scores in yourself, then they may not be reflected in table (unless someone sees the omission and has time/inclination to fix).
At the next and final phase (5 day decs stage)absolutley NONE of us will have time to babysit the rolling table.
So, if you don’t put your scores into rolling table, then they won’t be included. We all lose out then, but the alternative, one person baysitting and going over reams of votes is impossible. Simples.
So my votes to come now and will close table Phase 4 as promised at close of Saturday 27 March.
#389
March 28th, 2010 00:24
Well team, sterling work with a great variation of thoughts and voters cast.
Looking forward to final phase at 5 decs stage when nearly all runners and importantly the weather will be known.
Showlad’s Top 6 at this 2nd last stage:
6 POINTS DREAM ALLIANCE
Class act will break the weights barrier trend if neccessary.
5 POINTS NICHE MARKET
Ditto with above and this season’s best all rounder but feel Dream’s brilliance will just out.
4 POINTS HELLO BUD
Another proven class act, primed for this one and will give a superb account of himself, but can see him being drawn in on the flat run to the line.
3 POINTS ERIC’S CHARM
consistency, consistency, stamina, stamina, form, form..what more can I say?
2 POINTS STATE OF PLAY
superb classy little horse will perform well again but the super fits will close the deal.
1 POINT RAZOR ROYALE
Connections feel he’s jumping better, getting stronger, shaping into a GN horse. Quirky but brilliant at times. The dark horse, has to be in my frame.
TOP 6 TIPSTERS LEAGUE PHASE 4 FINAL TABLE.
(PHASE 5 OPENS FOLLOWING RELEASE OF INFO AT 5 DAY DECS STAGE ON 5 APRIL).
76 arbor supreme 16 23
68 snowy morning 15 23
47 erics charm 13 23
39 big fella thanks 8 23
39 hello bud 11 23
31 dream alliance 9 23
24 state of play 7 23
21 mon mome 7 23
16 vic venturi 6 23
14 black apalachi 3 23
14 razor royal 4 23
11 ollie magern 3 23
11 niche market 5 23
09 backstage 2 23
09 ballyfitz 3 23
08 comply or die 2 23
08 character building 3 23
08 chelsea harbour 3 23
07 ellerslie george 3 23
07 maljimar 4 23
05 the package 2 23
03 beat the boys 1 23
02 air force one 1 23
02 cant buy time 2 23
01 king johns castle 1 23
#390
March 28th, 2010 01:04
I don’t believe it, would it have killed you to add in mr frisk’s vote. Dear, dear, dear.
77 arbor supreme 17 24
71 snowy morning 16 24
53 erics charm 14 24
39 big fella thanks 8 24
39 hello bud 11 24
36 dream alliance 10 24
24 state of play 7 24
21 mon mome 7 24
18 razor royal 5 24
16 vic venturi 6 24
14 black apalachi 3 24
13 niche market 6 24
11 ollie magern 3 24
09 backstage 2 24
09 ballyfitz 3 24
08 comply or die 2 24
08 character building 3 24
08 chelsea harbour 3 24
07 ellerslie george 3 24
07 maljimar 4 24
05 the package 2 24
03 beat the boys 1 24
02 air force one 1 24
02 cant buy time 2 24
01 king johns castle 1 24
#391
March 28th, 2010 01:26
6 Snowy Morning has a big chance. 3rd in this off 145 a couple of years ago, giving Comply or Die 4lb’s and beaten 5 lengths. Spent most of the following season with a sky high mark, which he found tough, none more than in the 2009 National off 11 stone 8. Again, he completed the course but finished a distant 8th. This year has seen his mark drop to a more manageable 147, not necessarily through anything the horse has done wrong – he has been running at shorter trips and acquitting himself well. He has a great weight, is very consistent, has completed the Grand National course 2/2 and looks a contender to me. 33/1 looks decent.
5 State of Play is another who has experience over the National fences. Finished a good 4th last year off a mark of 150. Is now rated 145, the same mark off which he won the Hennessy in 2006. The stable have been pretty open about protecting his mark for another go at the National and if he gets there in one piece, after his injury issue, which explained his lacklustre run in the Hennessy, he will be a market leader. Although recent winners of this race have had a prep run within a couple of months before the race, it is clear that State of Play runs best when fresh so this shouldn’t be counted as a negative.
4 Vic Venturi has all the credentials to run a big race. 11 stone 6 would normally be prohibitive to me having a bet but I think there is a big chance the weight trend could be busted this year. The first 4 home last year carried 11 stone or more and if Mon Mome is top weight this year then over half the field could be carrying 11 stone plus including most of the market leaders.
Putting that issue to one side, he looks an improved horse this year and has won his last 3 outings over fences, one of which was in the Becher chase over the National fences. Last time out he won the Bobbyjo chase over 3m1f staying on well to beat stablemate and fellow GN hopeful Black Apalachi with subsequent winner One Cool Cookie, a distance back in 3rd. He is in form, jumps the fences and despite the big weight, is actually 4 lbs well in after his last victory. With plenty of stamina in his pedigree a big run looks assured.
3 Big Fella Thanks Ran a great race last year as a novice to finish 6th and with another year under his belt should progress from that. He has less weight than last year and should run well.
2 Maljimar – He caught my eye at the Festival last year, getting caught on the line by Witchita Lineman in the WH Chase, usually a good pointer for Grand National hopefuls. He has stamina in his pedigree being a half brother to Nil Desperandum, who was favourite for this race a couple of years ago befor ehe was tragically killed. Last time out Maljimar ran a decent race over 31f, finishing 3rd of 16 beaten 3 lengths by Garde Champetre. He has a lot going for him
1 Arbor Supreme – I have my doubts as to whether he is good enough but he seems like the trends pick this year so I’ll include him.
78 arbor supreme 18 25
77 snowy morning 17 25
53 erics charm 14 25
42 big fella thanks 9 25
39 hello bud 11 25
36 dream alliance 10 25
29 state of play 8 25
21 mon mome 7 25
20 vic venturi 7 25
18 razor royal 5 25
14 black apalachi 3 25
13 niche market 6 25
11 ollie magern 3 25
09 backstage 2 25
09 ballyfitz 3 25
09 maljimar 4 25
08 comply or die 2 25
08 character building 3 25
08 chelsea harbour 3 25
07 ellerslie george 3 25
05 the package 2 25
03 beat the boys 1 25
02 air force one 1 25
#392
March 28th, 2010 02:05
Gone back to start to see if points were right.
Here the team members who made the list:
1 Daniel Edwards
2 Nick Mannion
3 Pablo
4 Irish Raider
5 Peter The Pig
6 Silver Birch
7 Speedyseagull
8 Andy
9 John
10 Whitearab
11 Mandie
12 Ben Mallinson
13 Stayer
14 Gammer
15 Systemsman
16 TC
17 Red Rum
18 Miinnehoma
19 Rascal
20 Bri
21 Thai Mark
22 Comply or Cry (post 336)
23 Neil S
24 Showlad
25 Ewok
Miinne couldn’t find Mr Frisk’s list.
#393
March 28th, 2010 02:23
Frisks list…post 385
#394
March 28th, 2010 02:56
P’s and Mr frisk between showlad and mine.
#395
March 28th, 2010 03:57
Looks bad for Chelsea then – out to 250/1 on betfair. I need another for my top 6 but won’t back those over 11-3 (Niche looks the best if I did). It pains me to say it but I’m going to have to consider Erics Charm. Maureen made a good point in #281 that the soft conditions should suit the oldies more than 8/9 yr olds.
Looking at the GN course, (ref Erics tendancy to jump right) the 2 fences that may pose a problem is Foinavon and the Canal Turn – the rest are all taken straight. I could see him in contention, jumping Bechers at speed, tearing through the middle of Foinavon and then being so far right at the Turn that by the time our Jock pulls him round, he’ll be 10 -15 lengths down. Could be a loss of 30 lengths over the 2 laps! Somebody tell me it won’t be that bad.
#396
March 28th, 2010 05:15
i read somewhere they resolved the issue with erics charm in last race,if concerns thai each -way double with leading goalscorer world cup !! nice little pay out
#397
March 28th, 2010 05:18
i even doubled him up with ERIC cantona just to cover the lucky name stat !! lol
#398
March 28th, 2010 07:58
I had no idea that Maljemar was a half brother to my beloved Nil Desperandum; would surely have gone close the year that he was killed. He bailed me out the year before [and possibly the year before that?].
#399
March 28th, 2010 11:33
For all those looking for that “last bet” like me I thought tis might help:
Highest weight of GN winner 11.01(2005)1984 to 2009 25 years (excluds void year)
Highest weight since 1958 11.05 (1965, 1970, 1982) 50 years other than the one and only Red Rum 1974 12.00, 1977 11.08.
So on that evidence I am sticking to 11.05 as the highest possible winning weight until we find another Red Rum and a horse brakes this trend.
So the weights going up or not is very important as to t he chance of a few good runners.
Views?
#400
March 28th, 2010 11:39
what was up with my top 6
#401
March 28th, 2010 11:51
I’ve tried to look for a bet at 50/1 or more and the only one that I can find is Hello Bud
Will be in off a nice low weight and we know that he stays well
Has been running against decent horses for most of the season and hated the heavy ground twice (plus amateur-ridden the last 3 times)
So will be fit and even though he is 12 should be there or thereabouts if getting a clear round
However with the uncertainty over the weather I am going to hold fire – I think his chance would be much better on better ground
#402
March 28th, 2010 11:54
Going to go over and check everyone’s list, if the no objections Asap.
#403
March 28th, 2010 11:58
How about this year doing the French bred and Weight double?
6 points: Madison du Berlais
5 points Mon Mome
4 points Razor Royale
3 points Big Fella Thanks
2 points Comply or Die
1 Point Niche Market
Please may these be respectfully added to the table .Thanks
#404
March 28th, 2010 12:13
Systems Man – I’m sitting here toying whether to top up on Dream Alliance but I cant make my mind up . If he stays on 11-3 hes a player. I know it doesnt seem much if there is a 3lb increase but I think the weights going up to 11-6 could do for him . Its a shame as I really like this horse and assuming he doesnt throw in a bad one , he’s got to be there or thereabouts especially with all the rain around.
#405
March 28th, 2010 13:21
Silver Birch Dream Alliance has 3 stars A + B (my Black Book System ratings which is 20/20)if the weights stay the same he has a real chance (fits all the main trends/stats,)if the weights go up 3lbs he still has 2 stars A + B (still a winning cobination if 11.05 or less)and would be only 1lb ouside of the winning system weight so he is the one runner I would still back at 11.06 just in case (and I have a big bet anti-post anyway).
#406
March 28th, 2010 13:56
1. Vic Venturi
2. Arbour Supreme
3. Hello Bud
4. Backstage
5. Dream Alliance
6. Whinstone Boy
#407
March 28th, 2010 14:13
83 arbor supreme 19 26
77 snowy morning 17 26
53 erics charm 14 26
43 hello bud 12 26
42 big fella thanks 9 26
38 dream alliance 11 26
29 state of play 8 26
26 vic venturi 8 26
21 mon mome 7 26
18 razor royal 5 26
14 black apalachi 3 26
13 niche market 6 26
11 ollie magern 3 26
12 backstage 3 26
09 ballyfitz 3 26
09 maljimar 4 26
08 comply or die 2 26
08 character building 3 26
08 chelsea harbour 3 26
07 ellerslie george 3 26
05 the package 2 26
03 beat the boys 1 26
02 air force one 1 26
01 whinstone boy 1 26
#408
March 28th, 2010 14:18
Right first part the magificent seven or to the end of Grand national tips part 8
we had Dainel Edwards, Nick Mannion, Pablo, Irsh Raider, Peter The Pig, Silver Birch & Speedyseagull and the score stood at :
(as they appeared in people list)
Snowy Morning 6,4,6,1 (17) (4/7)
Hello Bud 5,3,4 (12) (3/7)
Arbor Supreme 4,6,5,5,4 (24) (5/7)
Erics Charm 3,5,3,1,5 (17) (5/7)
Vic Venturi 2,1 (3) (2/7)
Beat The Boys 1 (1) (1/7)
Big Fella Thanks 6,5,3 (14) (3/7)
The Package 4,1 (5) (2/7)
Backstage 3,6 (9) (2/7)
Maljimar 2,2,2 (6) (3/7)
Mon Mome 1,3 (4) (2/7)
Chelsea Harbour 2 (2) (1/7)
Black Apalachi 5 (5) (1/7)
State Of Play 4 (4) (1/7)
Niche Market 2 (2) (1/7)
Ellerslie George 1,4 (5) (2/7)
Dream Alliance 6 (6) (1/7)
Razor Royale 2 (2) (1/7)
Ballyfitz 6 (6) (1/7)
Ollie Magern 3 (3) (1/7)
That was the situtation entering this thread.
Then came Andy, John, Whitearab, Mandie, Ben Mallinson (who was just repeating Mandies list confused me a bit, so come to conclusion to ignore your list), The Stayer, Gammer, Systemsman, TC, Heavyevvy, Miinnehoma (who only give 3), Red Rum, Rascal, Bri, Thai Mark, Comply Or Cry (who must have been waiting for moderation from Admin), Neil S (mine), Mr Frisk, Showlad and last but not least Ewok
Final Table looks like:
Arbor Supreme 79pts with 19 votes out of 26
Snowy Morning 78 pts with 18 votes out of 26
Erics Charm 53pts 15 votes out of 26
Big Fella Thanks 48pts 10 votes out of 26
Hello Bud 39pts 11 votes out of 26
Dream Alliance 37pts 10 votes out of 26
State Of Play 29pts 8 votes out of 26
Mon Mome 21pts 7 votes out of 26
Vic Venturi 20pts 7 votes out of 26
Razor Royal 18pts 5 votes out of 26
Ellerslie George 7pts 3 votes out of 26
Niche Market 17pts 7 votes out of 26
Black Apalachi 16pts 4 votes out of 26
Maljimar 12pts 6 votes out of 26
Chelsea Harbour 11pts 4 votes out of 26
Ollie Magern 11pts 3 votes out of 26
Backstage 9pts 2 votes out of 26
Ballyfitz 9pts 2 votes out of 26
Comply Or Die 8pts 2 votes out of 26
Character Building 5pts 2 votes out of 26
The Package 5pts 2 votes out of 26
Beat The Boys 3pts 2 votes out of 26
Air Force One 2pts 1 vote out of 26
Can’t Buy Time 2pts 2 votes out of 26
King Johns Castle 1pt 1 vote out of 26
Hope everyones happy and now lets move on, we’re into the elbow and would the be a Devon Loch type inicident waiting to happen for the leaders. Lol
#409
March 28th, 2010 14:20
Ok systems man ,uve convinced me . I like my Welsh national runners at Aintree Ive topped up ..!
Welsh national runners whove done well at aintree recently …
Seems to be the best race for winners and seconds to come from recently
2009 Mon Mome
2008 Comply or Die
2007 Silver Birch , Mackelvey
2005 Hedgehunter
2003 Supreme thingy – 2nd to Montys pass
2002 Bindaree, Whats up boys
1998 Earth Summit
#410
March 28th, 2010 14:21
Parisian you’re a little late with your list deadline was last night. However I will try and amend it.
#411
March 28th, 2010 14:25
Would be a great story if Dream Alliance could do it but I can’t back him because he pulled up last time out and that’s a big negative for a GN horse
From 1990 onwards horses that pulled up lto are 0/110 in the GN
The four to place were:
Party Politics
Niki Dee
Smarty
Lord Atterbury
#412
March 28th, 2010 14:26
Miinehoma wish you wouldn’t jump to conclusions. Last post I read before putting my 2 posts up was yours at 11.20pm. I then posted my 2 up totally absorbed in my deliberations.
Put my first posted up re each of our own responsibility re incoporating our scores into table and then continued with my deliberations on my Top 6. I then posted up my Top 6 and went to bed. I didn’t see Mr.Frisk’s post so really don’t appreciate your comments on me not including his scores.
This is the type of crap why Crisp ain’t here anymore and frankly I don’t need such snidey comments either.
Huge amount of posts between now and the off and in final phase of table at 5 day dec stage please ALL include your scores into table. If anyone has to do it for someone then thank you in advance – but let’s not lay the guilt trip if people don’t – some days we all have leisurely time on the blog, other days it will be a snatched coffee 2 mins. Let’s just chill.
Peace.
#413
March 28th, 2010 14:48
Table and if anyone else adds anything TOUGH!!!
ARBOR SUPREME 84 POINTS 20 VOTES OUT OF 27,
SNOWY MORNING 78 POINTS 18 VOTES OUT OF 27,
ERIC’S CHARM 53 POINTS 15 VOTES OUT OF 27,
BIG FELLA THANKS 48 POINTS 10 VOTES OUT OF 27,
HELLO BUD 43 POINTS 12 VOTES OUT OF 27,
DREAM ALLIANCE 39 POINTS 11 VOTES OUT OF 27,
STATE OF PLAY 29 POINTS 8 VOTES OUT OF 27,
VIC VENTURI 26 POINTS 8 VOTES OUT OF 27,
MON MOME 21 POINTS 7 VOTES OUT OF 27,
RAZOR ROYALE 18 POINTS 5 VOTES OUT OF 27
NICHE MARKET 17 POINTS 7 VOTES OUT OF 27
BLACK APALACHI 16 POINTS 4 VOTES OUT OF 27,
MALJIMAR 12 POINTS 6 VOTES OUT OF 27,
CHELSEA HARBOUR 11 POINTS 4 VOTES OUT OF 27,
OLLIE MAGERN 11 POINTS 3 VOTES OUT OF 27,
BACKSTAGE 9 POINTS 2 VOTES OUT OF 27,
BALLYFITZ 9 POINTS 2 VOTES OUT OF 27,
COMPLY OR DIE 8 POINTS 2 VOTES OUT OF 27
ELLERSLIE GEORGE 7 POINTS 2 VOTES OUT OF 27,
CHARACTER BUILDING 5 POINTS 2 VOTES OUT OF 27,
THE PACKAGE 5 POINTS 2 VOTES OUT OF 27,
BEAT THE BOYS 3 POINTS 2 VOTES OUT OF 27,
AIR FORCE ONE 2 POINTS 1 VOTE OUT OF 27,
CAN’T BUY TIME 2 POINTS 2 VOTES OUT OF 27,
KING JOHNS CASTLE 1 POINT 1 VOTE OUT OF 27,
WHITSONE BOY 1 POINT 1 VOTE OUT OF 27.
#414
March 28th, 2010 14:50
I hope everyone’s happy and like showlad said lets double check those scores and tables in future.
#415
March 28th, 2010 15:00
Pablo about Dream Alliance pulling up last time, Red Marauder fell in the race before his national. However he the only one in the past 20 running (and longer probably) to not finish, plus his national was all about surviving ( so I thought). So Dream Alliance chances are not zero but stat not good on that score.
Counteracting that the welsh national is second to none for grand national winners it produces (or thats my thoughts, anyway).
#416
March 28th, 2010 15:18
Will check in future – I only had 3 sets of scores to add up and still got them wrong!
First bets on Arbor Supreme last night & this morning.
Really feel he’s the one this year. He’s got lots of experience in big fields having run at the Punchestown Festival twice and in the Thyestes twice, plus ran in the GN Trial on his 5th start over fences (coming in top 3 on all completed starts in those events). As an 8-y-o I’m hoping that there’s more to come and he did get a career best RPR lto.
Only major negative for me is no key race but then the way some of the Irish horses were treated last year I think it’s not suprising he stayed away.
Willing to forgive the Irish National run as no hold up horse has won that for years carrying more than 10’0 (and horses such as No6 and Amberleigh House have won the National from the back recently).
If the trainer is right and he doesn’t jump as well in bad ground then missing the Welsh was also a good move.
No longer praying for rain – want the sun to shine now
#417
March 28th, 2010 15:28
Thanks Neil and especially for adding the ‘out of’ part showing how many times each horse has appeared in blogger’s lists.
Analysis will be posted today and I’m also going to show the TOTAL points horses have collected in all 4 voting phases since Day 1. This may well help us reflect a bit more clearly.
Oh, I just don’t know where I find the time,honestly I don’t, lol…
#418
March 28th, 2010 15:30
Pablo re Dream Alliance – reported on the ‘Galloping’ tips on SportingLife yest – Dream was the pick with great rumbles coming from the stables re his prep for the big one. This may sound odd, but I’m actually OK with his dud last time out. Trainer said it’s totally in his character (ina nd out for no reason) and I’d rather it was then and hopefully he’ll come to Aintree with plenty in the tank
.
#419
March 28th, 2010 15:31
Neil – Red Marauder fell at the first so at least the race wouldn’t have taken much out of him – whereas Dream Alliance did run poorly
At least that’s my take on it
Also I think it’s a negative for Razor Royale – 7 runs and pulled up last time out – has he been over-trained this year? (Plus Strong Gale concerns too)
#420
March 28th, 2010 15:32
Mr Frisk could you find that Eric article and post it up (if you have time) would be great. Thanks
#421
March 28th, 2010 15:36
I think it will be a one, two for the Wilson’s with Mr Pointment storming to the line with Cerium a close second. Lol, you gotta love those Wilsons.
I teasing of course, or am I?
#422
March 28th, 2010 15:38
Silver Birch:
Post #408.
We (as in on here) had a quite heated discussion re Welsh Nat and GN. When we had sorted it out the proof was that SAME SEASON WN winners or placed horses had a dire record in the SAME SEASON GN ie 4 months later. What we found was 16 months (or in Silver Birches case 28 months) later was when they ran a blinder in the GN. Also Binderee won his WN AFTER his GN win…..
So on that basis Dream Alliance (1st 09) Le Beau Bai (3rd) and Ballyfizt (5th) doesnt look good but Notre Pere (1st in 08) should do apart from top weight.
All trends can be broken of course but it is one that puts me off a horse. Just to say I have already backed Silver By Nature (2nd 09 WN)a/post for the 2011GN!!!
#423
March 28th, 2010 15:42
Showlad – you got a link for Sporting Life gallop article with news of Dream Alliance?
#424
March 28th, 2010 15:43
Pablo, I give you that point, but his national only two got round, plus a further two remounted and got round.
#425
March 28th, 2010 15:45
Neil – misunderstanding – all I meant was that he fell at the first fence so no harm done – DA ran for 3 miles in heavy ground before being pulled up
#426
March 28th, 2010 15:48
Here you go Pablo, in full:
DREAM ALLIANCE has been allowed plenty of time to get over his Haydock exertions as Hobbs is aware he is at his best when fresh.
The Grand National hope continues to give the right signals with Aintree on the near horizon.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/racing_tipping_centre/ (then click ‘Gallops reporter’).
#427
March 28th, 2010 15:55
Re the weather:
Have had a mate on the phone who happens to be groundsman of the local cricket club. He called about something else (obviously) but had a moan about ‘how far behind’ the ground is in terms of grass growth this year.
So as I had an expert (this guy writes books on the subject and works at Myerscough Agric. Coll.) I asked him how that would effect the outfield (ie where they want a good covering of grass rather than the wicket where they do all sorts of strange voodoo and things…)and would it be the same on a racecourse.
To simplify he said because of the cold the grass growth cycle is 3-4 weeks behind. What that means is that when it rains there isnt enough grass to help absorb it and it becomes boggy very very quickly. (I immediately thought of how a little rain at Chelt this year on the Friday seemed to really change the going very quickly).
So assuming Aintree as it isnt that far from here has had the same temps and is as far behind with the growth cycle then it will not take much rain at all to make it testing. He said (for his cricket club) that if it warmed up now he wouldnt have caught up at all by their first fixture (24th April) so he said (being the kind of bloke who follows the weather forecast for fun…it is his geek thing…!!) he cant see the GN being run on anythingother than soft (if dryish for next 2 weeks) to near heavy if just averageto worse rainfall…
Not wanting to be a doom-monger but this guy knows his stuff….and wish had thought of asking him before!!! Now, where’s me wellies… and the extra extra long going stick!!!
#428
March 28th, 2010 15:56
Weather changing again, lol, we’ve gone from all rain race week to all dry race week and now it’s forecasting rain early in week then dry. We REALLY won’t know, lol, til Mon/Tues of race week I don’t think..
#429
March 28th, 2010 16:01
Sterklin work Nick, thanks. How far is ‘not that far’ from Aintree?
Maybe give your mate a call again in few days, please
Sounds though, with more rain forecsat (from tomorrow 6 of the next 12 days has rain) that it could just be falling the class horse’s way, who loves both soft and heavy – Dream Alliance.
Not 9according to Mullins) good news for Arbor..
#430
March 28th, 2010 16:04
Nick, better late than never, thanks for the weather report.
#431
March 28th, 2010 16:11
Well Aintree or rather Liverpool is just down the M62 for me about 40-50 miles (rough estimate ) so the weather in Greater Manchester will be within a high probability of being the same, will be watching local weather report closely from now on.
#432
March 28th, 2010 16:12
Showlad:
Just under 30 miles as the crow flies but the temps have been the same in the NW as a whole.
Yes he said the forecast re rain (thinking about his C Club) isnt good the next 2 weeks and all our weather comes from the South West ie off The Irish Sea via L/pool and Southport.
Knowing Eddie and how much he is into his grass technology now I have put the idea in his head he will be on t’internet as we type checking out what racecourses do for groundkeeping etc etc!!
Although have the footie on at min and Anfield looks in great condition if on the soft side of good!!
re Dream A…I was at Haydock for that last run and it just did not appear to be enjoying the ground at all that day….and infact all theother GN runners in that race still engaged you wouldnt fancy at all apart from Mon Mome who was staying on. remember, apart from the winner that day they were all stuffed by Our Vic who was trying 3m+ for the first time giving them all weight.
#433
March 28th, 2010 16:14
Neil and Nick, thanks.
Gold Star to Nick: he’s even got his grass loving geek friend on the case!!
God you guys make me laugh. Sincerely thank you..
#434
March 28th, 2010 16:18
Not good news for Arbor for sure so I won’t be topping up until much nearer the time
If it is soft then this is how horses carrying 11’0+ have fared in soft or heavy ground since 1990:
Year; Going; Position; Horse
1994; H; U; Quirinus
1994; H; F; The Fellow
1994; H; R; Run For Free
1998; S; 2; Suny Bay
1998; S; P; Rough Quest
1998; S; F; Challenger Du Luc
2001; H; 4; Papillon
2001; H; BD; General Wolfe
2001; H; U; Earthmover
2001; H; U; Beau
2001; H; F; Tresor De Mai
Some good horses there. In those days the handicap was more distorted but still not great news when you consider that Papillon was remounted (no longer allowed) and Suny Bay was rated 170 (so clearly way better than anything in this year’s field and had come 2nd the year before, won the Hennessy etc etc)
So unless Aintree drains as well as they say it does (I hope!) I’ll be looking for a horse who loves soft ground, is under 11’0 and likes to race prominently (and is in-form etc etc)
Any ideas?
#435
March 28th, 2010 16:20
Nick- fair point on Dream Alliance . Its gonna be tougher after a 9 pounds hike but I dont think the evidence is completely compelling that we can discount horses who have won or placed that season in the Welsh Nat from triumphing . Earth summit managed it no problem and remember Bindaree and Whats up Boys finished 3rd and 4th at Chepstow in December before coming on and fighting out a marvellous finish 4 months later . If the 9lb penalty is what might do for Dream Alliance then maybe Ballyfitz is the better option as he finished in 5th and wasnt clobbered by the handicapper as a result. Loved your post by the way on the Cricket ground . The best post in ages , made me laugh , buts its great the way every one is pulling together to try help and find the winner . Weve even got the groundsman from one of the local cricket clubs helping out . Great stuff !!
#436
March 28th, 2010 16:21
Pablo the rule I use is that if a horse fails to finish TWICE in the GN season the dont back it(and it a definate no no for the GN if fell twice). Dream Alliance was pulled up on heavy when the jockey knew he could not win thus keeping him for the GN (quite correct too) and as others have stated its not out of character for this one.
I also think PU is better than F or UR as far as stats goes. PU can be for a very positive reason such as making sure you are keep something for a better race (like the GN)when its clear you cant win (and in the case of DA this was on heavy).
No the last prep race is no a problem so long as the runner has a 1/2/3 in ONE of his last three races (and ofcouse MUST as a minimum a 1/2/3 during the GN season).
If Dream Alliance stays on 11.03 I will be very tempted to top up on what is already a big bet as he meets all the trend/stats and we cant ignore this can we:
Won the Welsh National.
28Dec09 Chp 30Hy C1HcChG3 57K 10-8 1/18 ¾L, Silver By Nature[20/1]10-2p
1lL second to Denman in the 2007 Hennessy!!
01Dec07 Nby 27Sft C1HcChG3 85K 10-7 2/18 11L, Denman[16/1]11-12
And clearly in coming back into form after a bad patch in 2008 – just the sort to win the GN.
This hosre could be anything and on paper has a better record than my AS. Had his weight been lower he would be my NO 1 choice.
#437
March 28th, 2010 16:22
Eric immediately comes to mind Pablo…
#438
March 28th, 2010 16:26
Remember it was no ordinary ‘bad patch’ too, was totally understandable – career threatening injury. Get on him before he drops like a fly if the amount of rain forecasted turns out to be accurate..
#439
March 28th, 2010 16:28
yes ille see if i can find it again showlad
#440
March 28th, 2010 16:33
I live on the Wirral about 6 miles from Aintree so can give weather updates closer the time if needed. I’ll be up early on the Sat with excitement and nerves, in the Princess Royal stand this year!
#441
March 28th, 2010 16:38
Think Eric’s Charm is vulnerable to something better – he’s a Class 2 horse really for me but he might be worth having a saver on
State Of Play would be the one I think – same mark as Soft ground Hennessy win and being fresh might be an advantage
Maybe Whinstone Boy if he gets in
#442
March 28th, 2010 16:49
Well the weather has been good for two days here in the south midlands and as i look out the window at 5.35pm its still sunny and light. So I know its not Liverppol but we do need to be cautious about weather forcasts – they have been VERY inaccurate this year. A relatevely dry week leading up to the GN with Gd/Sft now could still give us Gd/Sft on the day.
My prediction (bearing in mind the cousre drains well) based on some rain but also dry days just before the GN saturday and current going off gd/sft (and thats after lots of rain) would be Sft with Gd/Sft patches which should suit most of the leading runners and even with luck genuine Gd/Sft!! (perhaps with sft patches)- now I think Arbor S, Dream A, Erics C, Snowy M would love that! (and if it goes Sft no problem for all of them).
Suprisingly even Hello Bud has good form on Gd/sft and sft!
#443
March 28th, 2010 16:50
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/forregdaily.aspx?postcode=L9&selected=0
Forgot this link too…
#444
March 28th, 2010 16:51
PICTURE: Mark Cranham
Eric’s Charm lands Veterans’ Chase
By Stuart Riley 2:47PM 6 MAR 2010 Report: Newbury, Saturday
Blue Square supporting Greatwood Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Class 2) 3m2½f, 10yo+
Eric’s Charm won the Veterans’ Chase under a typically strong ride by AP McCoy. Getting back up in a thrilling finish, the 9-1 shot saw off the persistent Knowhere on the run in with Dom D’Orgeval running on for third.
RELATED LINKS
» Veterans Chase result
Newbury highlights on RPTV
Always prominent, McCoy set the early pace and they went a strong gallop throughout. Eric’s Charm was joined in their first trip down the home straight by Ellerslie George with the two leaders pressing on and really stretching the field down the back.
By the time they turned for home Eric’s Charm seemed to be travelling much the best of the fourwho were still in contention. Ellerslie George began to fade as Trabolgan and Knowhere began to lay down their challenge to the eventual winner. The strong pace took its toll on Trabolgan who faded tamely and was looked after by Barry Geraghty.
Knowhere and Eric’s Charm jumped the last side-by-side but McCoy elicited more from his mount as Knowhere wandered about a bit under Paddy Brennan and had to be straightened up by Paddy Brennan. It was enough to see McCoy assert and his better jumping won him the race. Dom D’Orgeval ran on past beaten horses to fill the places and should come on for the run
Speaking after the race an emotional Oliver Sherwood said: “This is for my Mum, I buried her yesterday and this was her favourite horse.
“This was the plan on the way to the Grand National. He’s gone fine left-handed and silenced those critics but he would not want any firm in the going. It was plenty fast enough for him today.”
here it is showlad hope that helps you !!
#445
March 28th, 2010 16:55
Thanks so much Mr F
#446
March 28th, 2010 16:57
AS has come right in the betting!
#447
March 28th, 2010 17:07
that was good to soft showlad and said wouldnt want it any firmer ,with predicted weather and carrying maybe a stone less than veterans race ime liking what ime seeing !!
#448
March 28th, 2010 17:41
My pleasure Silver Birch and Showlad.
By the way Show. wasn’t Backstage v. v. disappointing yesterday. I couldn’t take anything positive from the run at all…
#449
March 28th, 2010 17:42
THE PLOT Part 1 begins to come good!
Right thats the final clue for me Arbor Supreme will riun in the 2010 GN!(but ofcousre I could be wrong).
Now 14/1 to 16/1 on Oddscehecker.com 3rd Jt Fav or Jt 4th Fav. Now thre is no way this sort of money is going on unless he runs in the GN.
Juts had a chat with my mum and asked her if she wanted her GN bet on AS tomorrow (thinking 20/1 was availbale still) with a risk it runs the Irish Nat. She went for the bet tommorow (good on her a risk atker at 81!) pitty its only going to be 16/1 at best.
I predict clear 2nd or 3rd fav on GN race day for AS – spot on.
Would love to see Dream Alliance’s price drop – I guess it would if the weights dont do up.
#450
March 28th, 2010 18:03
Absolutely Nick, right on re Backstage.
Trainer ‘just wanted to give him a look at the fences’. Well I think I’d have wanted more from him than ‘looking at the fences’ lol. Believe me he’ll need to do more than ‘look at the fences’ a week come Saturday lol!! Gordon Elliot says ‘if it dries up we’ll see a different horse’ – well I wouldn’t be banking on it.
Mr Frisk, yes we’re not knowing how Eric will be in this top class field but we DO know for sure he is ‘unleaveoffable’, lol, on anyone’s list.
#451
March 28th, 2010 18:10
Systemsman I do think I’ll have to give Willie Mullins the nod re Arbor’s best ground. If he says ‘he can’t jump out of it’ re soft, I have to take that as a bad sign. Much of Ireland’s races are on heavy as we know. But soft ground I don’t think we can take a s a good for him. Willie knows his results on soft and heavy but obviously is not keen on it for him.
#452
March 28th, 2010 18:16
so what odds did you get for silver nature for 2011 g/n nick mannion ??
#453
March 28th, 2010 18:25
Backstage remains my number one. If the ground is OK he will come good come Aintree
#454
March 28th, 2010 18:42
With Arbor coming in, I am sitting pretty on 40/1. Of course that doesn’t mean he won yet, fingers & toes crossed and anything else too.
#455
March 28th, 2010 19:02
OK Team!
Below is the final table for the
TOP 6 TIPSTSERS LEAGUE PHASE 4.
Following the runners points in the current table, I have researched back and I have now displayed for us the TOTAL points given by us to all of the runners from Phase 1 right through to Phase 4.
This makes very helpful reading, as, if consistency is the name of the game (and some have said to feeling that we can lose the ‘great horses staring you in the face at the beginning of our search’)then here we can now see those who have consistently done well from Day 1.
Analysis:
Well it’s pretty easy and clear in this Phase 4. The GOOD news is our Top 6 are 10 points at least clear of the rest of the pack.
It’s VERY easy to see how our combined voice speaks at the moment. Again, it’s good news and we seem to split into two trains of thought: those we would generally say have proven their claims already on the big playing field – Dream Alliance, Hello Bud – and those we feel are progressive (in general or specifically to the Grand National)and who we feel will rise to the occasion and show their potential and claim the crown – Arbor Supreme, Snowy Morning, Eric’s Charm and Big Fella Thanks.
Of our ‘Total Points’ awarded over all phases, the Top 6 and consistent scorers are:
1 – Snowy Morning 198 points
2 – Arbor Supreme 158
3 – Hello Bud 139
4 – Dream Alliance 86
5 – Niche Market 84
6 – Erics’s Charm 73
These are the leaders from the vantage point and overview from Day 1.
TOP 6 TIPSTERS LEAGUE – PHASE 4 FINAL TABLE.
(PHASE 5 OPENS AFTER 5 DAY DECS INFO IS RELEASED).
ARBOR SUPREME 84 POINTS (158) 20 VOTES OUT OF 27,
SNOWY MORNING 78 POINTS (198) 18 VOTES OUT OF 27,
ERIC’S CHARM 53 POINTS (73) 15 VOTES OUT OF 27,
BIG FELLA THANKS 48 POINTS (72) 10 VOTES OUT OF 27,
HELLO BUD 43 POINTS (139) 12 VOTES OUT OF 27,
DREAM ALLIANCE 39 POINTS (86) 11 VOTES OUT OF 27,
STATE OF PLAY 29 POINTS (69) 8 VOTES OUT OF 27,
VIC VENTURI 26 POINTS (28) 8 VOTES OUT OF 27,
MON MOME 21 POINTS (25) 7 VOTES OUT OF 27,
RAZOR ROYALE 18 POINTS (22) 5 VOTES OUT OF 27
NICHE MARKET 17 POINTS (84) 7 VOTES OUT OF 27
BLACK APALACHI 16 POINTS (45) 4 VOTES OUT OF 27,
MALJIMAR 12 POINTS (27) 6 VOTES OUT OF 27,
CHELSEA HARBOUR 11 POINTS (11) 4 VOTES OUT OF 27,
OLLIE MAGERN 11 POINTS (16) 3 VOTES OUT OF 27,
BACKSTAGE 9 POINTS (19) 2 VOTES OUT OF 27,
BALLYFITZ 9 POINTS (29) 2 VOTES OUT OF 27,
COMPLY OR DIE 8 POINTS (26) 2 VOTES OUT OF 27
ELLERSLIE GEORGE 7 POINTS (18) 2 VOTES OUT OF 27,
CHARACTER BUILDING 5 POINTS (44) 2 VOTES OUT OF 27,
THE PACKAGE 5 POINTS (5) 2 VOTES OUT OF 27,
BEAT THE BOYS 3 POINTS (15) 2 VOTES OUT OF 27,
AIR FORCE ONE 2 POINTS (23) 1 VOTE OUT OF 27,
CAN’T BUY TIME 2 POINTS (5) 2 VOTES OUT OF 27,
KING JOHNS CASTLE 1 POINT (3) 1 VOTE OUT OF 27,
WHITSONE BOY 1 POINT (2) 1 VOTE OUT OF 27.
#456
March 28th, 2010 19:19
Mr Frisk:
I have a ‘special relationship’ with my local Ladbrokes ie it is managed by a big mate of mine so he will take any bet I care to mention how ever ‘left field’ it might be.
For instance just won £35+ on a bet struck 3 years ago that Alistair Cook would captain England at cricket by 31/12/10.
He gave me 50/1 after the Haydock race on Silver By Nature (I said 66/1 he said 40′s and we met half way!!).
#457
March 28th, 2010 19:22
I’ve just been looking back on Tips 4; no340 to see which horses were in that list that we know are still intended runners.
#458
March 28th, 2010 19:29
News Flash
Arbor Supreme Jt 2nd Fav with Paddy Power tonight on 12/1. Jt 3rd Fav with many others (5 in fact).
Now what do the Irish know we dont?
#459
March 28th, 2010 19:35
This is like Papillon the night before he [errr]…won the Grand National!
#460
March 28th, 2010 19:39
“Showlad
March 28th, 2010 18:10
Systemsman I do think I’ll have to give Willie Mullins the nod re Arbor’s best ground. If he says ‘he can’t jump out of it’ re soft, I have to take that as a bad sign.”
Showlad if Arbor Supreme can do what he has done on Hvy and Soft just think what might be possible on Gd/Sft (the current ground conditions and a possible for GN day)!! Watch the money pour in if it is gd/sft.
Anyway what is Willie on about he has already “jumped out of it”, won on Sft and won on Sft/Hy and good last prep race 2nd on Hy (where he showed a lot of speed at the end on Hy)!
#461
March 28th, 2010 20:16
I starting to get less and less excited about Arbor Supreme…he could win, of course, but I think he has less chance than Big Fella Thanks, and he’s one ive already decided I wont be on at the price. Given that Arbor is hardly any bigger, ive decided I wont be on him.
He is this years ‘Southern Vic’ – the one that im not on that, that meets the stats and that I think is most likely to win.
Ive just had a little nibble on Eric’s Charm on Betfair at 50s with some football winnings from the weekend.
That’s me done now…until raceday at least.
Worringly Snowy has taken a slight walk on Betfair I notice, but Vic Venturi did that the other day and seems to have come back in now.
#462
March 28th, 2010 20:20
Systems, I think it because they offering Non runner no bet, at least I thought I saw it on their website, but went into their shop yesterday and couldn’t see that condition.
#463
March 28th, 2010 20:31
I also think that this year it looks top heavy.
In the olden days the rule we would have gone with was in the handicap proper, these day its under 11 stones. Not many this year under 11 stone in form and looking likely to stay.
#464
March 28th, 2010 20:52
Hey Systemsman – hope you have not forgotten that Snowy Morning has an even better form line with Denman than Dream Alliance. Denman beat DA 11 lengths giving him 19lbs. Snowy was only 10 lengths behind Denman off level weights in the Royal and Sun Alliance at Cheltenham a few years back (admittedly). But I do recall being quite impressed how well Snowy stayed on. I think we need to start looking at the sta on how much weight the last X winners have carried above bottom weight. I think it is 11lbs or 12lbs and it is quite a solid stat.
#465
March 28th, 2010 21:00
Showlad, thanks for all the hard work in compiling all the tables together.
Thanks for everyones views and I hope its a profitable race for you, oh and thanks for systemsman for all that time in the library, doing all the leg work.
Race time is getting nearer and I was reflecting on what you did wrong with Rambo, I think nothing much,just unlucky.
#466
March 28th, 2010 21:17
The problem wih Rambo is that we got carried away with his Haydock win. Rambo didnt hit the pre-season national trends – much like Erics Charm this year. He was backed on his season form (cue for the famous words). If he was really a national horse connections would have realised at a much earlier stage of the horse’s career
#467
March 28th, 2010 21:22
Rambos connections are notoriously anti National; I think it was only the fact that his form was so good last year that they almost had to run him.
#468
March 28th, 2010 21:47
whitearab “I think we need to start looking at the sta on how much weight the last X winners have carried above bottom weight. I think it is 11lbs or 12lbs and it is quite a solid stat.”
You are quite right. We are missed two vital bits of info:
Bottom weight
Top weight.
And then we cans see who is 11lb (I think its 11lbs as I wrote it down at the time and have just found it im my GN book) above bottom weight.
I’ve ceratinly not forgot Snowy and his performance aganist Denman – has a great chance. My top four bets are. Dont read me wrong any of those below can wim and not just AS.
AS
SM
EC
HB
DA
NM
The weights will determine my last bet and I think will also determine the fate of DA and NM with preference for DA. Would love the weights not to go up so we can see how good DA is.
#469
March 28th, 2010 21:51
No “Rambo” this year me thinks as we have a very good short list. We now need to know those weights to help sort out the last piece of the puzzle. May have my final Black Book systems list by tomorrow night if all goes well – back to that library tomorrow afternoon.
#470
March 28th, 2010 21:54
hi dont understand a lot of how your points work but i came on here reading all through post last year and backed rambo as that seemed the one every one was going all out for i lost as i expected at lot of others did but its fun and it onley comes once a year can anyone tell me if Razor Royale will be a definete runner i fancy a little flutter thanks in advance.
#471
March 28th, 2010 22:07
Des hi. Razor is intended as a definite runner, yes.
#472
March 28th, 2010 22:11
I’ve gone back to basics. I’ve gone through each horse over 7yo weighted 11’5′ or under (down to Whinstone Boy) and looked at their form over the 3 longest trips that they have run at (chase only). I’ve looked at the Racing Post comments on those 3 runs and have listed below the horses that have done their best work at the end of at least 2 of those 3 runs:
Don’t push it
Comply or die
My will
Backstage
Can’t buy time
Air force one
Dooneys gate
Conna castle
Erics charm
Arbor supreme
Hello bud
Royal rosa
Abbeybraney
I’ve then taken out those who finished 10th or worse in their last race (not including falls/ur). That leaves us with:
My will
Backstage
Can’t buy time
Air force one
Dooneys gate
Conna castle
Erics charm
Arbor supreme
Hello bud
Royal rosa
I’ve then taken out horses who have not finished in the top 3 in any of their last 3 races. Leaves us with:
Backstage
Can’t buy time
Air force one
Dooneys gate
Erics charm
Arbor supreme
Royal rosa
There you go. Winner should be amongst those 7. Simples!! I wish!
#473
March 28th, 2010 22:14
thanks for that showlad i saw you on here last year and i notice a few of the others names to thanks for helping me out going to do him ew allready backed AS to win i will hold and see what you all come up with or do you think i should back him now at around 40s what you think ?
#474
March 28th, 2010 22:30
Weather report heavy rain for north west tomorrow.
#475
March 28th, 2010 22:32
Betting and fancies are an individual thing Des. Razor is well regarded. A bit of a quirky jumper but getting better and stronger, connections think very highly of him.
How you place your ‘kitty’ is totally your call.
Razor came 10th in our poll (post #455).
I would advise though looking for a bookie that is ‘non runner no bet’. To my knowledge Bet 365 and Stan James are.
#476
March 28th, 2010 22:32
May I also suggest a small each way double:
1)Whoever you fancy in the national (Backstage for me)
2)Hunter Mahan in US Masters (best price 50/1)
#477
March 28th, 2010 22:32
Thanks for appreciating the research on TOP 6 TABLE Neil
#478
March 28th, 2010 22:43
Des , I would back him on NRNB terms and if possible if you’re backing each way 5 places. Paddy power are offering 5 places for one. However I can’t see Razor being a fashionable choice with the masses so probably be just as big on the day, but its how you feel that’s important, remember no guarantees, have fun and keep to your budget wether 50p each way or £1,000 each way. Good luck!
Like to thank Admin his team for putting up this blog and giving us somewhere to air our views.
#479
March 28th, 2010 22:44
thanks for that showlad individual thing i agree just wanted your thoughts and i think i will leave alone as my bet would be with ladbrokes as i have a free 25.00 bet with them going to do ew when i think the time is right dont wont to put it on then its a non runner so i will wait and see what all you guys are going for hope you dont mind i read through a lot of your coments and find them very intersting com on get me that winner ha ha good luck to you all i will be reading with you all thanks again.
#480
March 28th, 2010 22:47
thanks for that neil you guys are great i can do it with all your help get in there so excited.
#481
March 28th, 2010 22:48
Showlad, I always say praise where its due.
#482
March 28th, 2010 22:53
Yes, seconded, good point to thank Admin for a great Blog and, after teething problems, lol, a lovely designed, easier to view and access design
Gold Star Admin
#483
March 28th, 2010 22:56
Wonder when Irish next decs is?
Info on Irish seems SO thin on the ground this year
Couldn’t even see much on Fairyhouse site..
Anyhoo a week on Saturday for ‘the off’ of the BIG ONE
Cripes!! It’s gonna be great – CAN’T WAIT!!!
#484
March 28th, 2010 23:10
Simon Holding, sorry your list came too late. Must have been waiting for clearance, however if Showlad and yourself don’t object then add it to final table when five days are declared. In case anyone doesn’t know Simon’s post has appeared on post number 403. Unless you want to send in a completely new list.
#485
March 28th, 2010 23:41
i must admit recently its been like a psunami of wise words sweeping me along till we reach the golden gates of the arbor oops (harbour) lol where everything becomes still and suddenly makes sense !! ok i concede gracefully with a soothing drink in hand ,mines a double !! supreme arbor and torres leading goalscorer world cup
#486
March 28th, 2010 23:45
but when it wins will become a arbor supreme lol
#487
March 29th, 2010 08:13
Can anyone explain the movement for Arbor Supreme over the last few days? This time last week you could still get 25s but now 16s is the best you can get with some firms going as low as 12s. Big drifter on Betfair for the Irish National so people seem to think he’s going for Aintree but i’ve not read anything at all. I’m glad I topped up on Friday because I think the value has pretty much gone now.
#488
March 29th, 2010 08:48
I think it’s been kicked off by many going to the NonRunnerNoBet sites for their bet on him with the uncertainty of whether he will run. Then he was lised as 1 of 4 AP possibilities for the race in an interview with AP and I think it’s just gathered momentum from there.. Plus his high regard and Top 6 Table status to viewers on here.
#489
March 29th, 2010 09:50
I read that Wille Mullins said Arbor Supreme was going to Aintree in his RP column yesterday – don’t buy the paper only use online so can’t confirm
#490
March 29th, 2010 10:26
” Pablo
March 29th, 2010 09:50
I read that Wille Mullins said Arbor Supreme was going to Aintree in his RP column yesterday – don’t buy the paper only use online so can’t confirm”
Has anyone got the paper and can confirm this 100% – it would explain the support yesterday.
We need to be careful not to get too fixated on just one runner (and I am AS biggest Fan)but I do think the winer is in a list of around about 6 or 7 runners most of whom, if not all are in the top 10 on our joint poll.
Over the last few days Dream Alliance keeps poping up in my head as something very special if he stays on 11.03 and is no more than 11lbs above bottom weight and finsishes the race(and even with one lb extra would not put me off – we must allow for a miner change in trends). I am convinced he is the best of the heavy weights. That race against Denman just cannot be ignored. He is a bit in/out/in but if he has an “in” day (and not PU) just watch out!
Speedyseagull: I know its different a bit (and I’am bending the stick to make my case)but if you took Dream Alliance’s last three completed chase runs he would fit yout list (30f, 27f and 24f).
#491
March 29th, 2010 10:35
Message from Arbor Supreme Fan Club HQ:
Anyone wanting 16/1 on Arbor Supreme as a bet or top up needs to be thinking of making that bet today as I cant see it lasting much longer. Its the best price you will get now and from Thursday/Friday it will be lower (betfair has As for Irish National at 30something so the signs are good for the GN).
Can we pull off Part 1 of THE PLOT?
#492
March 29th, 2010 10:54
Systemsman
word of caution!
don’t want you to get to fixated on the one horse like we did last year with rambo.
#493
March 29th, 2010 11:01
Andy i think I also said that – post 490 unless you are being ironic that is.
“We need to be careful not to get too fixated on just one runner (and I am AS biggest Fan)but I do think the winer is in a list of around about 6 or 7 runners most of whom, if not all are in the top 10 on our joint poll.”
I really dont tink AS is another Rambo and we have another 5 or so runners who are also very good with great trends and I have never suggested anyone ONLY backs AS (and you can see I am also still keen on DA if weights dont go up) in fact I am recommeding a list of about six – my final list should be posted tonight.
#494
March 29th, 2010 11:07
State Of Play drifting slightly on Betfair, now out to 29s from 22s on Saturday. Any news?
#495
March 29th, 2010 11:23
(Caveat: just my opinion based on some research not a personal attack – people seem to have been getting a bit touchy recently but it’s forum for debate so here goes…)
I have to disagree Systemsman on Dream Alliance, especially when you said that being pulled up was better than falling – the stats do not appear to back that up.
I cannot remember when a horse last won a big race being pulled up last time out. None of the Irish, Welsh, Scottish or Hennessy winners over the past 10 years or so have been pulled up lto.
I looked at the Weatherby’s Aintree & Punchestown Guide from last year and it concentrated on 29 races (going back up to 10 years before). One and only one winner was pulled up lto out of 250+ races (that’s 0.4%).
I have been through this year’s Cheltenham Festival results and not a singe winner was pulled up lto. Horses have a better record falling than pulling up last time out – but to fall is far from ideal too.
DA is now rated in the 150s and ran poorly last time out when pulled up. To my mind that is an interrupted preparation and no matter how well he is working at the moment he will still have to run 4.5 miles.
For me Dream Alliance has had his day in the sun this year. There will be several horses for whom the GN is not just a nice afterthought or a fun day out because it has been their main target for over a year. The prize is £500k not £50k like the Welsh.
He might yet win but the stats would be very much against him doing so.
(But that’s only my view.)
#496
March 29th, 2010 11:33
systemsman
no,was’nt being ironic. sorry did’nt see or remember post.
just a friendly reminder, just don’t want any of us to make same mistakes as last year.
#497
March 29th, 2010 11:33
Excellent post Pablo, i will swerve him for now. Hopefully you’ve saved me a couple of quid.
Another i’m swerving for now is Arbor Supreme unless I see something from Mullins categorically stating he is going for the English version. I know the price pattern suggests he will go to Aintree but the forecast rain is a concern given the trainers comments.
#498
March 29th, 2010 11:39
Pablo
that’s a good stat, might scrub dream alliance & beat the boys from my list?
#499
March 29th, 2010 11:45
I’m not saying don’t bet on them just putting forward the reasons why they wouldn’t be at the top of my list
#500
March 29th, 2010 12:05
Andy, if you’re cautious about Arbor (or don’t fancy him for one reason or another ), then what about his stable companion Snowy Morning.
Personally I think Arbor myself this year but to use a cliche I’ve not put all my eggs in one basket.
#501
March 29th, 2010 12:35
I have a medium term forecast for all days leading up to the Wednesday before the race and it looks like pretty solid unsettled weather with heavy rain and high winds.
Maybe another Red Marauder year ?
#502
March 29th, 2010 12:55
I’ve been checking out W P Mullins Racehorse Trainer. Not only does he give a run down on his horses but says which ones are likely to beat them.Looked at yesterdays results and he was spot on.Unfortunately no mention of the National, but I’ll be checking what he says on the run up to the race. Should be an interesting read on national day.
#503
March 29th, 2010 13:00
With our top six after the 5 day decs are we allowed to ditch one of our last top six even if it is still down to run?
Drawing a line under Backstage. Watched a re-run of last years Foxhunters at Aintree and have to say jumped superb to be a staying on 8th not beaten too far…BUT he jumped so badly on Saturday and the trainer said he didnt like the soft ground…
Well thats exactly what he is going to get at Aintree (tippled it down all day today and set to continue at least till tomorrow.
So ground and current form combine for me to omit him from my final top six.
#504
March 29th, 2010 13:00
Know it’s a stats ‘impossibility’ but with the compression of the handicap surely the forgotten E/W NRNB value is with Madison…
7th FEB 09 Levyboard chase Kempton 3 miles
Madison 11-06(Dotted up)
Denman 11-10 (Beaten 23 lengths)
Albertas 11-05(Further 25 lengths)
Niche 11-06 (Further 21 lengths)
Surely wont be 50s on the day given a run and goes on anything.
Thanks for all your informed comments to date.
#505
March 29th, 2010 13:01
Been rainig all night and on and off day today here in Liverpool with lots more forecast till Saturday……
#506
March 29th, 2010 13:01
One that has really gone for a walk on Betfair is Chief Dan George. Been trading in the 40s over the last few days but is now 100+. A reflection that the horse probably won’t get a run or has something gone wrong with the horse?
#507
March 29th, 2010 13:44
“Champion jockey Tony McCoy looks set to partner Jonjo O’Neill’s Can’t Buy Time as he chases an elusive first success in the John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree.
McCoy’s boss, leading owner JP McManus, has four entries for the world’s most famous race in King Johns Castle, Don’t Push It, Arbor Supreme and Can’t Buy Time.
The Willie Mullins-trained Arbor Supreme is the shortest of the quartet in the betting but at this stage, he is set to be ridden by Paul Townend.
McManus’ racing manager Frank Berry said: “Paul Townend is probably going to ride Arbor Supreme and we’re not certain yet whether AP will ride Don’t Push It or Can’t Buy Time.
“Nothing is written in stone yet, but I think Tony will ride one of Jonjo’s (O’Neill) horses.
“It is a while away yet so nothing is certain but at this stage, it’s more than likely Tony will ride Can’t Buy Time.”
Speaking on his Facebook page, Mullins said: “Paul Townend is going to ride Arbor Supreme in the Grand National.”
So what do the Arbor Supreme fans make of this? Clearly it’s great news that Willie and Frank have said that Arbor is definitely going for the race and for the reasons I mentioned further up i’m not unhappy that AP will not be on board. Paul Townend is a decent enough jockey and is pretty much the stable no.1 when Ruby is not available. Has won on Arbor before and got Irish Invader round last year on his first National ride.
#508
March 29th, 2010 13:55
Hi Nick
Yes you can amend if any NRs are in your Top 6 list, but obviously the poster will have to amend rolling table themselves
#509
March 29th, 2010 14:06
Wonder which one Geraghty will go for. If it’s not a Nicholls horse then that might be a tip in itself.
#510
March 29th, 2010 14:07
Andy/Systemsman.
Yes agree re non-fixation on Arbor (doesn’t help referring to yourself as his fan club, lol, Systems
I think Arbor has bags of unfulfilled potential. However, I do definitely think a bit of the Rambo fixation is easy to see as being evident with this blog just now.
We have the Scots, Welsh and Irish GN winners in the field and apart from a bit extra weight with Dream and Niche, surely their proven track record and wins are way ahead of what Arbor has achieved – and a good 2nd in an unremarkable field recently in no way for me changes that.
So for him to be SO far ahead of them and even ahead of Snowy with his GN record, to me, for sure, is overinflated.
I think the answer as Systems says is in our clear Top 6 or 7 – and I too believe the winner is there (not forgetting Razor).
Pablo given Dream’s unique comeback from injury and amazing win in heavy at Welsh, I don’t see jockey pulling him up, if perhaps trainer said ‘don’t push it’, is a negative. I see DA easily overcoming such a stat. Last year State would have surely won, his jockey had said, without that timely clout of the fence. That would have overturned stats too.
I also don’t think that your inference to the GN being an afterthought for the Dream team is accurate. Love the debate though Pablo, so all good. For me Dream is my top claim if prep goes well, as reported by Gallops reports the other day.
#511
March 29th, 2010 14:51
“Earlier in the day, Arbor Supreme had been the subject of substantial support for Aintree, with Victor Chandler cutting him to 12-1 from 16-1 in expectation that McCoy would take the ride.”
Bookmakers are such thieves! They’ve been shortening up Arbor Supreme over the last few days thinking that AP would be on (and the once-a-year punters would pile in) and now he has pretty much decided to ride Can’t Buy Time the bookies are slashing the price on that horse too!
#512
March 29th, 2010 15:03
In that public library again working for the team.
Well the work on the “Black Book System” final selections is now finished and I will post the results tonight. Checked all the leading players and all runners from BFT to C.Harbour + Ollie Mag on Oddschecker.com + all that were on Pablo’s list of those who have stamina for a long race.
I am confident we have the winner – look in tonight to see if you agree.
#513
March 29th, 2010 15:16
Systemsman
March 29th, 2010 15:03
In that public library again working for the team.
Looking forward to the report Systemsman.
#514
March 29th, 2010 15:20
Showlad you reply to Pablo re DA was spot on “Pablo given Dream’s unique comeback from injury and amazing win in heavy at Welsh, I don’t see jockey pulling him up, if perhaps trainer said ‘don’t push it’, is a negative.
Could not agree more – they knew the next race was the GN so it was the right think to do to PU on heavy.
Forgive my excitment but I am a big fan of AS and after waiting so long to now see him 3rd Fav and even 2nd Fav is what the anti-post GN is all about.When some of us suggested AS for the GN back after Chritmas there were few who took him seriously as they do now (some still dont). But lets be clear what matters this year is to have a list of six or so and find the winner in that list and I think this site has found that list with variations for 5th and 6th. If I’ve got the winner I really dont care what he’s called so long as I backed him. But you have to admit the GN dream story is also attractive if AS wins (the fine art of peparing a GN winner by WM) or DA (bred from a donkey!).
P.S. I always belived you wont win unless you really do believe that you selction can and will win.
#515
March 29th, 2010 15:46
We are not talking about nice touch on a £10k race we are talking about a £500k race. I know that you are keen on the horse but ‘pulled up lto’ is a major negative to overcome – the more I look into it the worse it becomes.
Last year I was talking through my Rambo pocket and think you guys are doing similar stuff this year with Dream Alliance. Remember on Channel 4 the connections were very bullish beforehand – they have no PR people to appease unlike trainers.
Dream Alliance from RP:
“Welsh National winner Dream Alliance was disappointing as he made mistakes and struggled to go the pace. It´s probably worth remembering, though, how few races he´s had over recent years so he´s probably not one to rely on too heavily.”
Obviously he can still win but surely he’d have been better off going round in his own time like Mon Mome did last year?
#516
March 29th, 2010 16:31
Yes, it will be interesting to see what BG ends up riding. I don’t think he was that impressed by Tricky Trickster in the GC – if he was i’m sure he would have been booked by now. He’s probably waiting to see with what happens with the Irish horses – Backstage and Whinstone Boy (if he gets in) could be available rides. Also, NTD is planning on running 6 or 7 so there will be a few spares there!
#517
March 29th, 2010 16:50
Paul Townend just been given the ride on AS!!
Article suggests AP Mc will take the ride on Can’t Buy Time..
W Mullins also says SM will run but not confirmed rider yet…
#518
March 29th, 2010 16:52
Reading up on State of Play; trainer says he pecked at fence 20 but was also badly hampered at Bechers second time round, ‘having seen how well he jumped and travelled around those big fences I will be keen to go back there next April’ Watching some of his races his form does seem to be in and out. That could be because after his Hennessy win he was rather pitched in at the deep end, probably out of his depth. However he runs incredibly well after very long lay offs. he’s not a big horse, so his races possibly take a bit out of him. So many questions over so many horses this year. At least we know SoP likes the place which is a huge advantage [and, famous last words, isn't likely to overjump because he's too little to!].
#519
March 29th, 2010 17:07
great ride for Townend… but he’s still yet to break his duck in the UK.
Got way too many doubts about AS to be topping up on him at the moment. mainly doubts about his class but definitely not his stamina.
#520
March 29th, 2010 17:09
I’d have given the ride to Katie Walsh…but not sure if she qualifies…or if the ban she and Nina C got a Chelt for producing one of best finishes of the meeting (utter stupidity by the stewards but there you go…) runs through Aintree…
#521
March 29th, 2010 17:21
Why give Katie Walsh the ride when Paul Townend has ridden the horse twice and finished 1st and 3rd on him?
#522
March 29th, 2010 17:28
As she is a better jockey… simple as…
#523
March 29th, 2010 17:29
2 Chelt. winners and Townend has how many?
#524
March 29th, 2010 17:41
“2 Chelt. winners and Townend has how many?”
I know that you know better than that Nick!
#525
March 29th, 2010 17:44
nick me ode fruit, i am a better driver than my mrs honest, but i aint got a f1 drive this w/e.
#526
March 29th, 2010 17:52
Dream Alliance now biggest price than he has been for a while on betfair at 60-1 – wonder why he is drifting? Forecast rain should be right up his street
#527
March 29th, 2010 18:00
Arbor Supreme is now 10/1 with Stan James. That’s ridiculous.
#528
March 29th, 2010 18:09
Accordiing to oddschecker both 365 and stan james are offering non runner money back, and bet 365 and paddy power are offering 5 places.
We need the other bookmakers to follow suit now.
#529
March 29th, 2010 18:23
Someone asked further up if Mullins said specifically in his Racing Post column yesterday if AS was going for the National. He did indeed – and Snowy Morning. I have had a couple of ante post bets on AS but don’t see him as any value at all right now at 16/1 or less. I see him as a more likely winner next year than this if he does not blow his handicap mark. Why do I say that? Look at the profile of every one of the last 10 or so winners. Everyone of them you would describe in the ‘battle hardened’ category. He is only a year out of novice chasing. I very much like the horse but do think he is turning into a bit of a Rambo.
#530
March 29th, 2010 18:23
stupid price for AS in my opinion, who is yet to perform in a major race. Poor preparation and looks as if they’ve been forced to run him this year instead of next due to the Denman talk
I have to view the Townend booking as a major negative. He’s a good jockey, but lets face it if AS is that good the champion jock of England or Ireland would have ridden AS. How often does Ruby Walsh get it wrong!?! BFT nowhere near as many votes on the table
#531
March 29th, 2010 18:27
Anyone heard anything re: Dream Alliance? Now out to 65-1 on betfair !
#532
March 29th, 2010 18:34
For upto the minute ground conditions then use the link below.
This link normally goes live the week before the first day of the aintree so it should be running from Thursday this week
http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=aintree
#533
March 29th, 2010 18:46
Well its great news is it not that we now know that both Snowy M and Arbor S are running in the GN (Part 1 of the PLOT completed). Wether they win or not its just great to have them in there and no money lost on anti post (like Church Island and GTLunch!!)- remember AS is the Teams NO 1 choice.
Now AS jsut cant win can he – re jockey I mean? He has the best jockey for him who knows him best but others say if he was the best horse then McCoy would have picked him but if McCoy had ridden him some would say it would mean no chance bearing in mind McCoys record in the GN and the way he rides – so poor old AS just cant win this issue. AS a clear 2nd Fav with Stan James at 10/1 – while this is a silly price I dont thing the money is going down for nothing (you cold have got 20/1 on Saturday with some). I really dont want AS to be race day FAV as I hate to bet on the GN Fav but i would be surprised if BFT did not say the clear Fav (7/1 with many – again a silly price).
#534
March 29th, 2010 18:54
I know The Stayer but I do remember an interview on tv with Ruby W about 5 years ago and we all know he is very modest and how close the Walsh clan are but he was asked in all seriousness who he rated re current jocks and of course he said AP and a few others but then added ‘my younger sis is a better jockey than I was at her age and she out rode me in a bumper the other day’….
He is a sound judge….and scarily enough the eldest Walsh (who isnt a jock) is the other half of Nina C….can you imagine how good their offspring might be in 20+ years time?? What a bloodline
#535
March 29th, 2010 18:58
J Rambo I wouldn’t worry re the market just now. Many people are laying off to shift their cash onto other horses.
I got Vic Venture in the 40s the other day and he’s now back in at 21s on Betfair.
Dream has consistently been between 50s – 65s of late so I wouldn’t be unduly concerned.
#536
March 29th, 2010 19:00
I know its not done and dusted with Arbor, but I am kinda relieved that Tony Mc Coy not riding. He’s a great jockey but he’s sort of jinxed when it comes to the national and like I said before (somewhere) he doesn’t get the best out with every horse.
#537
March 29th, 2010 19:01
Systemsman,
I wouldn’t get too dejected about AP not picking Arbor Supreme over the other J P McManus entries. Whilst I think Arbor has the best chance of the four it isn’t that clear cut and AP has won on Don’t Push It and Can’t Buy Time before but has little experience of Arbor Supreme and King John’s Castle. Jocks don’t always get it right either – Aidan Coleman rode Mon Mome in the National in 2008 but rode Stan in the race last year.
#538
March 29th, 2010 19:04
TC and one or two others, I know RW is retained by both PN and WM but…and have racked my brains….I don’t ever recall him riding one of JP Mc’s for anybody. Maybe JP (his owner perogative) doesnt like him riding for him or something…
So perhaps AS was never a possibility for Ruby…and to be fair to Paul T. they (the Irish fraternity) have been singing his praises for a couple of years now and he was 11th last year on Irish Invader…
I’d still have Katie W on but again maybe JP has had a (minor) tiff with the Walsh family sometime…;)
#539
March 29th, 2010 19:06
I was hoping for Paul Carberry on Arbor but presume he will be on KJC again now
#540
March 29th, 2010 19:06
Last of the 16s has gone on Arbor now. I presumed that after the news that AP would be on something else the support would end but SportingBet have only just gone 14s a moment ago.
#541
March 29th, 2010 19:07
Stayer – Its no just AP, that has turned down the AS ride though. Ruby Walsh has the pick of Nicholls and Mullins, if he thought AS was that good, he would surely have delayed his decision on BFT. Both champs can’t surely have turned down a possible national winner?
#542
March 29th, 2010 19:10
Nick – Walsh has ridden AS many times , including his last run
#543
March 29th, 2010 19:15
TC see my above re Ruby and riding for JP MC.
I know it is speculation but this is a man who after a tiff with Alex F over Rock Of Gibralters stud rights sold his near quarter share in the richest footballl club in the world to 2 American ‘cowboys’ knowing that it would (and possibly still has) undermined the financial stability of the club….now thats holding a grudge!!
Bri: Thanks for the link to turftrax…but trust me it’s p*ssed it down all day in the area and is set to for the rest of the week…so the colour code they use for The Somme is the one to look out for….!!
#544
March 29th, 2010 19:16
Fair enough I was wrong then re the JP Mc thing…
#545
March 29th, 2010 19:18
And will join the people asking serious questions as to why the 2 best jocks have turned the ride down. He isn’t in my top six so no opinion either way but would be very concerned if was on it….
#546
March 29th, 2010 19:34
Jock news:
PN confirms Barry G. will be on Tricky Trickster and the racing manager for JP Mc said “Richie McLernon will probably ride whichever horse ‘AP’ doesn’t ride and we might run King Johns Castle in the race too – either Davy Russell or Paul Carberry will ride him.”
Interestingly Paul N confirmed Liam Tredwell on Nozic but didnt mention My Will at all….last years GN third.
#547
March 29th, 2010 19:36
I reckon Paul Townend is a massive bonus for Arbor Supreme . Far as Im concerned this lad is the rising star in Ireland so I’d be more than happy with this boy onboard, Reminds me a bit of slippers Madden a few years ago when winning on Numbersixvalverde. I wouldnt be discounting just because Ruby has said no “Big Fella” thanks
#548
March 29th, 2010 19:41
All this talk about jockeys is rubbish
Liam Tredwell
‘Slippers’ Madden
Robbie Power
3 of the last 4 have hardly been big names, and no doubt some were put off them by the fact they had a ’2nd rate’ jock on board.
At the end of the day, if any of them were bad jocks, they wouldnt get rides.
#549
March 29th, 2010 19:50
Why is it rubbish?
If McCoy or Walsh thought AS had a better chance than CBT or BFT then one of them would have taken the ride
I’m not doubting Townend’s ability, but the two champions have turned the ride down. Yes Aiden Coleman got it wrong last year, but we’re talking about 2 champions that have ridden in a lot of grand nationals
#550
March 29th, 2010 19:55
Not happy at all with this train strike. I’ve booked my ticket to go up early to my mum’s nearby (Southport)on the Thursday lunchtime (2 days before national). Now I can’t even get on national express web site to book a coach as a contingency plan!
#551
March 29th, 2010 19:55
Given that Paul Nicholls had a pretty dismal Cheltenham by his standards, I wonder if Ruby feels some sort of obligation to ride for him at Aintree? There’s probably more political stuff going on than just riding the best horse. What do we know about Nozic, by the way? I know someone who quite fancied him for the Gold Cup a few years ago. I was also thinking about dual winners; we didn’t have dual winners of the Gold Cup for years, and now they seem to happen all the time..just crossed my mind that we may be due for another dual National winner?
#552
March 29th, 2010 19:56
TC McCoy record is zero in the national, and Ruby could be letting his heart rule his head.
#553
March 29th, 2010 20:00
No chance of Nozic staying the trip
#554
March 29th, 2010 20:00
reading the blogs tonight there seemed to have been an air of panic buying for a/s before value gone !! if a lot of ppl do use this sight as a guide then maybe made a rod for our own backs !! has he pulled out of irish ?? this is reminding me to much of rambo last year now,i have no asbestos gloves so will get fingers burnt again ,think look elsewhere !!
#555
March 29th, 2010 20:08
I also think the jockey talk stuff is a red herring. Ruby was always going to ride for Nicholls if he had a fancied horse. He has the 7/1F and so that one is a no brainer. He doesn’t even ride for his old man much these days if Nicholls has something to ride on the same day. Re McCoy, much like I don’t like backing a Nicholls horse in the National, I don’t like McCoy on a horse that I fancy! Yet I have huge respect and admiration for the man. There must be an element of McCoy riding for his main retained trainer in O’Neill and McManus staying loyal to jockeys in his wider team. In terms or Arbor’s chance, I think it is unaffected by this. Which makes anything like 12/1 or 10/1 and very, very silly price.
#556
March 29th, 2010 20:10
Oh and I am off to lay some of my Betfair odds off on AS soon!
#557
March 29th, 2010 20:21
The one factor you havent mentioned re the jock of AS is that the GN is the one remaining ambition of McCoy so he wouldnt think twice re Jonjo loyalty if he considered AS had any sort of real chance.
Same re Ruby. Surely he would like to be the winning most GN jock of all time (I think its George Stevens from an age back…but modern record is 3 by Brian Fletcher) and if he hs ridden AS before it is not an unknown quantity…yet he has turned it down.
Am NOT saying another jock cant win on it….just that the two above turning the ride down speaks volumes….
#558
March 29th, 2010 20:22
My final piece of work.
The final list for the “Black Book System” which as far as I am able to tell has been correct 20 times from the last 20 years running of the GN.
To win the GN a runner needs:
3 stars or 2 stars plus
A) The 30/30 stat(1/2/3 Irish Nationl, Scots National, Welsh national etc)
B) Placed 1/2/3 in one of last three races
The full system will be posted if we win this year.
A) To be included the runner must be 11.05 or less and ofcourse get into the race if they have a low weight. In my list there are 4 runners who come into this catagory who may not qualiy on the day of the race.
We do not yet know.
Top weight
Bottom weight.
So who has 3 stars and A + B (the best selections).
or
2 stars + and A + B (last year Mon Mome had 2 stars and A + B). A price of 33/1 or less on the off is a very big advantage but not 100% essential as witnessed by Mn Mome last year.
So who is in the list for the 2010 GN?
One of these should win the Graand National.
By weight order.
3 stars and A + B
Niche Market 11.04
Tricky Trickster 11.04
Dream Alliance 11.03
(the above three would carry more than 11.05 if weights go up 3lbs)
Erics Charm 10.09
Arbor Supreme 10.08
Ballytrim 10.01 (note he probably will not get in so wait for the 5 day declarations)
2 stars and A + B (just one!!)
Snowy Morning
So thats it just 7 names of which 4 may not even be in the system on GN day.
I will make an exception for Dream Alliance if he ends up on 11.06 as he will be just 1lb wrong.
Note how close to the teams top 10 this list is.
So who is dangerous?
Well in my eyes its not those who have 3 stars + A or B but those on 11.06 and above who have 2 stars and A + B these are:
2 stars + A and B (only exluded from 3 stars due to current weight 11.06 or over)
Mon Mome 11.07
Black apalachi 11.06
Vic Venturi 11.06
But you have to remember no runner has won the GN with 11.06 or over in 50 years other than Red Rum (twice)who had to win with less than this (11.06) once first. If the weights go up I would not worry about these three above at all.
These are UNLIKELY winners but may well place (remember the last 20 winners had 3 or 2 stars with BOTH A and B). I would not even consider any in the list below unless 33/1 or less on the off.
3 stars with A OR B (but not both)
Hello Bud 10.06* – price – needs 33/1 or less
The Package 10.07 – price OK
Backstage 11.00 – price OK
Chief Dan George 10.02 – price OK
Maljimar 10.08 – price, needs 33/1 or less
Razor Royle 10.07 – price, needs 33/1 or less
….
Faasel 10.03 – needs big drop in price to 33/1 or less. Unlikley to get in.
Ellerslie George 10.10 – needs big drop in price to 33/1 or less.
Conclusion:
For me I think it means that one of these is most likley to win the GN 2010:
(* = my bets so far)
Arbor Supreme*
Snowy Morning*
Erics Charm*
Dream Alliance* (even possibly of 11.06)
and if weights do not go up
Niche Market*
Tricky Trickster (but aged 7 I dont think so myself)
and just an outside (and I do mean outside)possabilty:
Vic Venturi
Black Apalachi
Mon Mome
I’am going to wait for that last bet to see who is running on the day on 11.05 or less (and get in) and who is 11lbs or less from bottom weight.Ofcourse I would have to back Ballytrim (3 stars + A and B) if he got in but its very unlikely.
#559
March 29th, 2010 20:25
The vast majority of the other jocks dont get the luxury of a choice…just get offered a (as in 1) ride…which most are going to take in the biggest race of the year…so the names above…Tredwell, Madden and Powers just happened to be offered the ride on the best horse (on the day)….they DIDN’T pick the ride…
#560
March 29th, 2010 20:32
Interesting stuff Systems – would you be topping up on Niche Market if the ground turned out to be soft or worse? I ask as he is by Presenting and doesn’t seem to have any form on give underfoot conditions. I don’t think GS would cause him any problems.
#561
March 29th, 2010 20:33
yes i agree about ballytrim loved the stats on him, took a bet on him at 33,s ,why was he ever so short in the odds if hardly any chance of being ranked ?
#562
March 29th, 2010 20:34
Let’s assume it will be soft or heavy for now. I have looked at any horses who have ‘stayed on’ etc in a class 1 or 2 race at 26f or more on soft or heavy ground. There are actually only 8 horses that meet this:
Madison du Berlais (1)
Mon Mome (2)
Black Apalachi (1)
Vic Venturi (1)
Erics Charm (1)
The Package (1)
Royal Rosa (1)
Knowhere (1)
4 of these seem to be too high in the weights. One of them is a 7 year old. Royal Rosa is 150/1 and Knowhere has failed in the national plenty of times already.
That leaves Erics Charm who hasn’t got the best LH record.
Anyone please feel free to see if we have a horse 11’0 or under who is likely to relish a boggy 36f, because I just can’t find an obvious candidate! Maybe Whinstone Boy but he may not get in and has never raced over more than 24f
#563
March 29th, 2010 20:36
Repeat my comments earlier about Arbor Supreme
“Really feel he’s the one this year. He’s got lots of experience in big fields having run at the Punchestown Festival twice and in the Thyestes twice, plus ran in the GN Trial on his 5th start over fences (coming in top 3 on all completed starts in those events). As an 8-y-o I’m hoping that there’s more to come and he did get a career best RPR lto.
Only major negative for me (and I appreciate that for some it is enough to say ‘no bet’) is no key race but then the way some of the Irish horses were treated last year I think it’s not suprising he stayed away.
Willing to forgive the Irish National run as no hold up horse has won that for years carrying more than 10′0 (and horses such as No6 and Amberleigh House have won the National from the back recently). In fact only one horse has come in the top 3 in the past 12 years with an OR >=140 (AS was rated 140 and carried 10’12 at Fairyhouse last year).
If the trainer is right and he doesn’t jump as well in bad ground then missing the Welsh was also a good move.
All Irish winners (except Silver Birch who did most of his groundwork in UK trained by Nicholls) have recorded RPR>=140 at Leopardstown – large, left-handed galloping track – AS 153 lto and won a bumper there as a kid.”
If this was any other race I would say his price offers little in the way of value (silly price if you want). However, this is not just any race for me as I have a budget each year that I use up for this race alone.
So value for me is defined by the bets at the top of my rankings for the race.
Arbor is top at the moment along with Mon Mome. So they are the favourites in my book (also near the top for bookies – typical!).
For me Mon Mome is probably a more realistic bet to place than win – so at the moment I would have more on Arbor than Mon Mome. But if weights rise others might come into the equation. So I’ll have to wait until 48 hour decs to have any more bets, once weights are known.
If I can wait that long!
#564
March 29th, 2010 20:39
Speedy – doesn’t Preists Leap love the bog? I know his form has been shocking this season but he ran well in the race for the most part last year on ground that was unsuitable for him and has taken some nice scalps in the past including Black Apalachi, Arbor and Chelsea Harbour. I’ve backed him for a place at big odds on betfair assuming it will come up soft/heavy
#565
March 29th, 2010 20:43
Sorry, I forgot to add that I have limited my search to horses who have finished in the top 3 in one of their last 3 races, and who finished in the top 10 (unless fell etc) in their last race
Other than that, yes, Preists Leap does like a bog but he has been so shocking this year that just can’t have him!
#566
March 29th, 2010 20:50
Speedy – surely Arbor Supreme qualifies on his win in the Grade C Porterstown Handicap?
“In rear of mid-division, headway to 8th approaching 6 out, improved in 7th entering straight, led approaching last, kept on well (op 5/1)” from RP comments
He was only rated 125 (10’8) at the time but Irish ratings are generally lower than in the UK and a Grade C is at least the equivalent of a Class 2.
Numbersixvalverde won the Grade A Irish National off 126 (10’1) and never carried more than 140 before his National victory off 138.
#567
March 29th, 2010 20:53
Aah, I have taken an Irish Grade C to be the equivalent on a UK class 3!
#568
March 29th, 2010 20:56
Snow, even heavy snow, along with numbingly cold rain will chill the United Kingdom and Ireland this week.
A meeting of arctic cold off the Norwegian Sea with a series of wet Atlantic storms will yield the waves of wintry precipitation.
The most important of these storms will spin sluggishly over the heart of the region through midweek.
Its yield will be widespread rain, some heavy enough to trigger minor flooding. And, as temperatures dip toward freezing, wet snow will mix in, at least briefly, over much of the British Archipelago,
Hills and highlands of Scotland, northern England, Wales and Ireland will receive most of the snow with localized accumulation of 6 inches to at least a foot. At the same time, lowlands will have little or no snow accumulation.
Adverse impact of the snow will be confined mostly to roads crossing uplands in the northern and western parts of the Archipelago. Here, travel over some of the highest roadways will be tough.
Heavy wet snow could down power lines and cut electrical power.
Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Jim Andrews
oh dear more like a snowy week than a snowy morning !!
#569
March 29th, 2010 20:59
anyone know a blacksmith who specialises in snow shoes ?? lol
#570
March 29th, 2010 21:00
Interesting stuff Systemsman. Fair play to you. But I still can’t have Eric’s Charm at all! Like the look of a few on your list though.
Good work too speedyseagull. I had a dig about the lower weighted horses who clearly like soft ground and Whinstone Boy also caught me eye. Not sure if he will get in but if he does he will be quite interesting if the ground is soft, which looks likely.
#571
March 29th, 2010 21:01
Fitting victory for Snowy Morning does look very likely!!
Surely Silver Birch would have another crack at the national with all this weather around
Any news on Chelsea Harbour?
#572
March 29th, 2010 21:02
The magic sign have been re-pricing this evening -Arbor available at 16-1 with them – going going going……..
#573
March 29th, 2010 21:04
I’m not 100% certain about the Irish Graded handicaps but in UK the GN is Grade 3 but Class 1.
I would think that Grade A and Grade B would be Class 1 and Grade C maybe Class 1 or more likely Class 2.
Can anyone help clarify?
#574
March 29th, 2010 21:06
Whinstone Boy is 33/1 with Bet365 NRNB
Not sure Pablo. I’ve asked that question on here before but no reply so assumed no-one knew the answer! I would be very surprised if Grade C equated to class 1. I would say it may be at the lower end of class 2.
#575
March 29th, 2010 21:12
Paddy Power is worth £79k to winner and is Grade B.
It maybe that they are not compatible – different handicapping systems.
#576
March 29th, 2010 21:14
Fair point. So Arbor Supreme may qualify and that is good news!
#577
March 29th, 2010 21:31
As far as jockeys go…
Ruby Walsh rides for Nicholls in England and Mullins in Ireland, simple as that really.
I wouldn’t be worried about Paul Townend being on Arbor at all. He has won Grade One chases in Ireland. Slippers Madden has one chase win in the UK in the last five seasons, that being the Grand National.
All this talk about why would McCoy or Walsh turn down the ride doesn’t wash with me.
#578
March 29th, 2010 21:52
Here we go again – in defence of AS:
“Speedyseagull
March 29th, 2010 20:34
Let’s assume it will be soft or heavy for now. I have looked at any horses who have ’stayed on’ etc in a class 1 or 2 race at 26f or more on soft or heavy ground. There are actually only 8 horses that meet this:”
Arbour Supreme
29f Soft “led approaching last, kept on well”
29Nov08 Fai 29Sft HcCh 19K 10-8 1/18 5L, Forest Leaves[11/2F]9-11
30f Heavy! “disputd lead last, soon in front,and went clear comfortably”
25Apr08 Pun 30Gd HcCh 23K 9-10 1/24 5L, Black Apalachi[12/1]11-1
Remember its not easy comparing an Irish race with a UK class race – best to use money value. Those above were 19k and 23K.
Re: Weather – going to be controveral again – but its that time of year and I’am taking “no prisoners” now after being laid into after I raised concerns about Rambo early on last year (and then became a fan with everyone else)- this year I staying with my own work/and others and my gut instincts.
On the westher front its rain until Friday then mild weather with a warm front from the south until least least Monday (with some sunshine over the weekend!). So we have in fact almost 9 whole days for the course to dry up a bit (a well draining course remember)with at least a weekend (Friday to Monday) of OK weather for sure with sunshine. It could still easily by Gd/Sft or Gd/sft with Sft patches or Sft with Gd/Sft patches. I for one am not expecting Heavy – no doubt one or two will want to challange me on that.
I would not be suprised with Gd /Sft at all (maybe with some sft patches)
#579
March 29th, 2010 22:00
Updated Lievrpool weather: 7 of next 9 days have rain!!!
#580
March 29th, 2010 22:01
There’s the link as I say 7 out of next 9 days rain:
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/forregdaily.aspx?postcode=Liverpool%2cMerseyside&selected=0
#581
March 29th, 2010 22:03
P.S. And my forcast by the way was for the Liverpool area. But the Irish National may well be a bog if it takes place at all.
#582
March 29th, 2010 22:05
No, I actually agree with you in a way Systemsman – I was just thinking ahead and aloud. I’m not going to lay off any of my good ground horses until we get a pretty accurate idea of what going will be 3-4 days before hand. I can always do it then.
For example (and I know hardly anyone on here gives him a squeak!) my biggest winner is Backstage. However, if it becomes blatantly obvious ground will be soft or heavy then I will lay some off that off and whack it on a creature such as Whinstone Boy (if he gets in).
I find it very tricky this year and I think sometimes looking at the race so far in advance hinders you somewhat. In Silver Birch year, I literally picked up the racing post pull out on the Tuesday, spent 2 hours studying it, and came to the conclusion that McKelvey was the stand out candidate. Ok, he didn’t win, but he might of done if he hadn’t gone lame at the elbow
#583
March 29th, 2010 22:20
Showlad try this forcast.
OK/good weather in Liverpool from Friday to Monday at least (and also confirmed by the Sky TV forcast – check SKy News weather forcast).There is a warm front moving up from the South on Friday. But to be fair the BBC are still saying heavy rain/heavy showers Friday and Saturday.
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/7days.asp?zipcode=Liverpool
The whole thing revolves around the warm front from the South and when it will hit Liverpool or not.
#584
March 29th, 2010 22:22
Hope you looked up my link Systemsman – rain onlt stops on Thursday (at moment). Don’t knwo where you looked up but some met group must have weather wrong then.
My forecast:
Tue – rain
Weds – rain
Thurs – showers
Fri – rain
Sat – dry
Sun – rain
Mon – rain
Tue – rain
Weds – showers
Link again:
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/forregdaily.aspx?postcode=Liverpool%2cMerseyside&selected=0
#585
March 29th, 2010 22:27
This is bloody hilarious innit?
Your link in some ways is actually worse Systems, lol.
On race week it shows:
Mon – dry
Tues – rain
Weds – dry
Thurs – snow (CRIKEY LOL!!)
Fri – rain
and on the day of the race – RAIN!!
#586
March 29th, 2010 22:45
the weather is as unpredictable as getting 2 consecutive blogs on here agreeing on it !! if the grass not coming through cos of cold fronts/snow then as mentioned before wont take much rain for it to turn soft/heavy !! (cricket groundsman reference)
#587
March 29th, 2010 22:52
on accuweather it will actually take a search for aintree !!
#588
March 29th, 2010 22:56
maybe grand national tips (10) will be filled with us agreeing on a weather website !! lol
#589
March 29th, 2010 23:00
Ha ha Mr F.
All good though – one thing in one shape or form it’s gonna be wettish. I think at very best Soft (good to soft in places) at worst Soft to Heavy.
Can anyone list the likely Top 40 (say dwon to Hello) who falls into what preference.
I see Backstage now drifting at the thought of soft going…
#590
March 29th, 2010 23:06
No not quite correct Showlad (I did not notice the 8-14 day forcast but as you know more than 3 days ahead can be very inaccurate).The Sky new weatherforcast was 10% that a warm fron would move up from the South from Friday.
Here is the forcast I was on about:
Wed 31st – cloudy with sun
Turs 1st April – cloudy with sun
Fri 2nd April – cloudy with sun
Sat 3rd – rain at night, clody /sun in day
Sun 4th – cloudy with sun
Mon 5th – cloudy with sun
Tues 6th – rain
Wed 7th – Cloudy
Thurs 8th – Snow showers!! (regard as rain)
Fri 9th – night snow showers: day cloudy
Sat 10th – cloudy with sun
#591
March 29th, 2010 23:16
No not quite correct Systems lol.
Your link on race day, Saturday 10 April, shows rain (that’s those splodgy circles, lol) as well as sun and clouds.
#592
March 29th, 2010 23:18
Read on another forum that Paddy Brennan will choose between Irish Raptor & Hello Bud
Anyone have any more news on NTD’s runners?
#593
March 29th, 2010 23:34
can see a niche in the market here lol OLWG (on line weather guide) checks for patent lol
#594
March 30th, 2010 00:01
Just rewatched last years race. Snowy didn’t just make a couple of mistakes, the commentator was saying that he made mistakes all the way round. He may not have fallen, but it cost him a lot of ground. I still can’t believe how fresh Mon Mome was after he won or how well Comply or Die was going all the way round.
#595
March 30th, 2010 01:29
Haha, so funny to get back and find you all discussing the weather, I told you it might be heavy!
So my big question from the depths of wintertime,.. will enough horses be withdrawn if it comes up soft to heavy for my boy whinstone to get in?
what number is he on the current list???
I have little doubt he will get the trip and on right ground find it hard to see past him on a low weight, so please can we make a list of horses who near as can be, wouldn’t run on heavy?!!!
and therefore try gauge what chance he has getting in on the ground he needs.
Makes sense I think and I may get shouted down, but, I would like it if we could all get some value if this weather situation happens, without throwing money away and before the bookies figure it, that relies on us all staying ahead and taking a calculated risk. I did some research months ago, concluding long cold winters make a bog more ‘likely’, thanks for the grass development data backup squad report, but lets not concentrate on will it be, won’t it, lets get on with it see if we get a clearer picture in wetter scenario before someone else does. Babbling but some sense?!
Good to be back, some lively debate here over past week I see, AS into 12s! briefly read Ruby made choice? BFT ey, typical now 8-1! ah dear I need sleep.
#596
March 30th, 2010 01:31
You have to admire the blind faith of people who say the best two jocks who have probably ever ridden over fences and their combined knowledge and experience and ambition when both….and I will retype that slowly…both… have (probably) turned down the ride on the same horse… and that isnt significant?
Well, if I had a phone a friend to ask for views on horses and the race RW and APMc would be near the top…but what do they know eh?
And all those years Ruby rode in the National other horses (Irish) than PN’s even when PN had a retainer on him…. I guess they dont count…sheesh…all that and possibility of snow too….;)
On another note I think we can safely say the going is going to be very soft to near heavy and I think the field (as in good ground horses being taken out) could really cut up and horses around the current 55-60 position could well get a run…
Maureen, I have watched the last 2 years races earlier and esp. Comply and Mon Mome and over 60 fences I didnt see anything close to a mistake apart from Mon Mome being brought to a standstill at 2nd Bechers when Butlers Cabin fell in front of it.
They seem to be true Aintree types and after Mon M’s GC run he is well in the frame and I dont think we can leave CoD out either although am not sure if he likes the softer ground it is looking to be…but MM doesnt seem to mind it…
#597
March 30th, 2010 02:19
My mate the cricket groundsman emailed me links and articles re the grass growing or not.
Have yawned my way through it but basically it needs consistent temps above 7c and above(that means overnight too) to start to grow to its full potential (ie what the groundsmen for C clubs or racecourses need!!).
On the Met Office website for L/Pool its going to be too cold (ie below 7c) most of the week to encourage the grass…so any rain…and lots is forecast…gets straight into the ground and …well we can imagine the rest!!
Dont think it will quite be as bad as Red M’s year but would bet odds on the heaviest since.
Have seen pics of one race in the 50′s where it was that wet (standing water) they missed the water jump out (I know…a contradiction…!!) but the take off for it had as much water as the ‘proper’ side!!
#598
March 30th, 2010 07:24
Sorry, I need a break from this amateur forecasting for a while – the pros can’t get it right so what chance for the rest of us ffs!
Calling amateur vets…
Let’s just assume it is soft or heavy
Was I too hasty in laying off almost all my stake (as much as I could before price got too high) on Chelsea Harbour?
Reportedly lame so missed his race last Saturday
2 questions:
1) Would he have needed a vet’s certificate or can they self-certify these days? (No allegations of foul play – just uncertain what constitutes lame – could it be just a touch of stiffness?)
2) Would there be any chance of him running in GN 2 weeks after being lame? (Clearly not an ideal scenario for his preparation).
Regardless of his price a fit and well (not looking likely) Chelsea Harbour would be the only horse I could see older than 9 (older horses tend to perform better when the ground is bad in GN) with a genuine chance off 11’0 or less on soft/heavy ground (I’ve come to the view that State Of Play prefers better ground)
Such a shame if he doesn’t make it
I think it will be an absolute lottery otherwise on bad ground – a bookies’ bonanza
#599
March 30th, 2010 07:50
Presumably those that are concerned about Arbor Supreme being passed over by AP and Ruby are also very worried about Snowy Morning? Willie’s no.1 and no.2 jocks (Walsh and Townend) have looked elsewhere and the fact that Willie said yesterday that plans weren’t finalised for Snowy Morning leads me to beleive that David Casey is waiting to see whether or not Oodachee and/or Offshore Account get in.
#600
March 30th, 2010 08:35
Hello,
Neil – Thanks for including my scores, you are correct in that my post took an age to be approved as I was awaiting moderation.
My take on the weather is that there is no point worrying too much at this stage, I only trust the forecast 2-3 days in advance, and given the drainage systems and the relatively warm weather I still favour soft/good-soft ground, but will reassess this time next week.
This is also supported by an article on RP an hour ago:
AINTREE clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch is predicting “lovely jumping ground” for the three-day John Smith’s Grand National meeting, which begins on Thursday week.
His confidence comes despite forecasters expecting the Merseyside area to see plenty of rain before the action starts.
A Met Office spokeswoman said: “The early signs for Aintree are for the weather to remain changeable, but perhaps not quite as wet as we have had over recent days.
“There will be some showers, but I think we will be looking at good sunny spells between the showers.
“Temperatures will be near or perhaps a little above average, but there is quite a lot of rain to come.”
#601
March 30th, 2010 08:46
BLue SQ and 888 gone out to 25′s on AS on odds checker. What going on????
#602
March 30th, 2010 08:51
Something gone wrong with Oddschecker I think. If you go to BlueSq they are going 14s.
#603
March 30th, 2010 08:53
Not too concerned about Walsh,McCoy not picking arbor etc…
after all the horses AP as passed over in the past,thinking he’d have a better chance on others!
#604
March 30th, 2010 09:28
“”The Stayer
March 30th, 2010 07:50
Presumably those that are concerned about Arbor Supreme being passed over by AP and Ruby are also very worried about Snowy Morning? Willie’s no.1 and no.2 jocks (Walsh and Townend) have looked elsewhere and the fact that Willie said yesterday that plans weren’t finalised for Snowy Morning leads me to beleive that David Casey is waiting to see whether or not Oodachee and/or Offshore Account get in.”"
Really i don’t think that much thought should be given to why Ruby chose Big fella, over his other choices, as Ruby has a cluster of good horses to chose from and any one of them goes to Aintree with a great chance, but i am concerned that McCoy did not choose Arbor being that he does not have that greater selection of good horses to choose from, if the market is to believed then Arbor lines up with a far better chance than anything else he could have choosen from.
But in saying all this i don’t think we should read into this too much as a stables NO1 jockey does make the wrong call from time to time.
#605
March 30th, 2010 09:43
So by the same reasoning are you must be concerned that Paul Townend as stable no.2 (effectively no.1 as Ruby has gone elsewhere) has chosen Arbor Supreme over Snowy Morning? Big negative for Snowy surely?
#606
March 30th, 2010 09:47
Please bring your thoughts on this thread to a close now and start using the new main thread that I have just opened.
Thanks
#607
March 30th, 2010 09:49
Neil S -Post (500)
yes mate,got snowy,state of play & character ready to replace any of my 6 that drop out or i change my mind about.
is’nt there a big stst about horses that place at GN one year never win year after or something like that.
then again now i think about it did’nt amberleigh house?
#608
March 30th, 2010 10:06
Just a thought on the weather again.
What if the Irish National cannot take place (heavy rain/snow forcast for Ireland) – would many of the dual entered runners (how many?)not want to run in the UK Grand National and I suspect a few would not want it so heavy if it took place? Any views?
I have revised my own forcast for the GN ground to Sft with some gd/sft patches after watching sky weather news again and checking other forcasts both rain and sun/cloudy are forcast for the next 10 days (NOT rain every day I might add, Sunnny on Friday). However there is a warm front moving in from the south on Friday and its difficult to predict how this will affect the north west beyond Saturday (rain).
The good news that they are predicting a very nice day for GN race day.
Irish National see:
Worsening weather a concern for Fairyhouse
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2010/0330/1224267345255.html
Still plenty of time to clear up a bit by Monday but still looks like Heavy or Hvy/Sft
#609
March 30th, 2010 11:21
With respect to you Nick – I thiok you are making a mountain out of a very small mole hill. Walsh is on the favourite and so why would he pick AS – simples. McCoy has a choice from a few and he has picked one with a similar looking chance to AS. I, for one am glad he is not on AS.
#610
March 30th, 2010 13:00
I see yer man Tulloch (Clerk of course Aintree) is living in lala land as he says lovely ground for the GN…
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/nw/liverpool_forecast_weather.html
Just see for the next 5 days…not one period without rain….
Maybe Mr Tulloch should get out more…or at least pop his head out of the door!!!
#611
March 30th, 2010 13:04
No sorry if we have the 2 best at anything both making a choice to avoid something…well as I said…call me old fashioned for trusting the ‘best in the business’….and infact you said it yourself…they have both chosen horses they think have a better chance….
We are not talking ‘journeymen’ jocks…we are talking the best…
Whatever I am backing, or planning to, if they had either chosen to ride it I would be in raptures…if either or both of them had dismissed it…then I would start to think again…
But if straws need to be clutched at to justify possibly…note the possibly…misguided near blind faith…then far enough.
I wish I was a bookie sometimes..or a layer on the exchanges….
#612
March 30th, 2010 15:49
NON RUNNER:
Air Force One has the bet365 Gold Cup as his favoured objective after trainer Charlie Mann decided against the chaser taking up either of his National entries.
#613
April 7th, 2010 11:06
Here are my top 6 although I only back 4:-
Vic Venturi 6pts
Character Building 5pts
Eric’s Charm 4pts
Preists Leap 3pts
Dont Push It 2pts
Snowy Morning 1pt
I went with Preists Leap last year and thought he did ok this year he got less weight and the ground will be more to his liking at 100/1 4th place will do me!!!!