Grand National Tips 2010 (7)
Posted on March 04th, 2010 in Grand National 2010
Please now use this thread for all your tips and comments on the Grand National 2010.
The following thirteen horses were withdrawn from the list of Grand National runners at the latest scratchings stage:
IRISH INVADER (IRE), SIEGEMASTER (IRE), ONE COOL COOKIE (IRE), BERONI (IRE), DARKNESS, JAYO (FR), ROYAL COUNTY STAR (IRE), KILCREA CASTLE (IRE), BIBLE LORD (IRE), PARSONS LEGACY (IRE), GLENFINN CAPTAIN (IRE), KILBEGGAN BLADE, OLD BENNY
In addition to this it has been also released that Paul Nicholls’ chaser Taranis will also not be running in either the Gold Cup or the Grand National.
Nicholls’ Tricky Trickster remains the 10/1 favourite for the Grand National 2010 with Skybet
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This post has 596 comments
#1
March 4th, 2010 10:39
anybody any idea why there’s sp at the side of W O A, eric’s charm + a few others, aswell as the 13 non-runners that have just been announced.on the sporting life racing ( left hand side big race entries)?
anybody got any cheltenham thoughts,tips?
#2
March 4th, 2010 10:44
probably won’t affect anyone’s anti-post bets,taranis won’t be running in gn.
#3
March 4th, 2010 10:49
(if i had to bet now) my top six
1 hello bud
2 arbor supreme
3 snowy morning
4 gone to lunch
5 state of play
6 parsons pistol
#4
March 4th, 2010 10:50
HELLO…is there anybody there!
#5
March 4th, 2010 10:54
Nobody here Andy. Everyone is nursing migranes after trying to read the small print on this new format blog.
#6
March 4th, 2010 10:54
had this trouble at school…nobody would talk to me!
#7
March 4th, 2010 11:11
Here’s a Cheltenham tip for you Andy. Sizing Australia in the X-Country race will not be out of the first 4 if his first two runs over the course are anything to go by – 3rd and 2nd so far. He’s available at around 6/1 NRNB with bookies going 4 places. One of the best e/w bets of the meeting.
#8
March 4th, 2010 11:18
Guys, regards Cheltenham, from a good source at Newbury racecourse I was given a tip yesterday said to be straight from the mouth of Twiston-Davies. He said he fancies both Imperial Commander and Khyber Kim to go well but his bet of the meeting was a suprise to me. It is PETTITFOUR. I was hunting about to see where he runs but interestingly I see in the Racing Post today that he has been cut from 14/1 to 10/1 for the 4 miler. Is there anyone with access to RP website, Betfair etc. could do a bit of looking and see where he looks likely to run. All I can access at work is Sportinglife.com and that shows Pettitfour declared for 5 races. So there you have it guys, information shared before I am even on myself!
#9
March 4th, 2010 11:24
Pettifour is entered for the 4-miler, RSA, Pertemps Final, World Hurdle and Kim Muir.
Not sure where he will go but his fencing has been far from convincing so far. Also not sure how much he likes Cheltenham as he seems more at home on a flat track.
#10
March 4th, 2010 11:28
Sizing Australia looks a decent bet for sure – Think if you couple him with GC in that race, you shouldnt go far wrong. One of the best types of races to bet on those (Cross Country I mean)
Ive been working through the William Hill Trophy recently. Anybody have any thoughts on that.
Looking over previous years, it seems to be smart go with a unexposed horse, on the upgrade, with a light weight and a C1 win to their name, who is proven over 3 miles and who doesnt fall often (if ever)
Find that horse, and there’s the bet!
#11
March 4th, 2010 11:29
Guys,
We have our site dedicated the Cheltenham Festival – why not have a look:
http://www.cheltenham-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-guide.php
We also have a blog on that site which deals with the race at Cheltenham – why not drop in and give your views on all the races:
http://blog.cheltenham-betting.co.uk/
We hope to see you over there
Thanks
Darren
Admin
#12
March 4th, 2010 11:42
(the stayer)thanks, nice price,good chance.
had garde last year,but no value.
#13
March 4th, 2010 11:48
would be nice to chat about cheltenham somewhere else, agreed, just visited other site, but theres noone there! and their graphics are more friendly, with non migraine ‘colours’ and they got times when posts were made! love the post Miinehomma.
I certainly don’t feel spoilt by the new look now Darren, are you trying to drive us away? shall we all go kidnap the other site? now thats an idea!
Please take note Darren,. text too small, migraine inducing white colour! maybe somewhere inbetween on page size for all those poor ‘ifacers’. Got to go my eyes feel broken.
#14
March 4th, 2010 11:49
Daniel,
Don’t want to get told off by admin but The Package looks pretty solid in the WH having regsitered a class 1 course win earlier in the season. Annoyingly he was 14/1 last week but is now challenging for favouritism at around 7/1.
At a bigger price I like Skippers Brig who ran well in the Boylesports to be third behind Poquelin and Razor Royale. Form from that looks solid as Poquelin is favourite for the RyanAir and RR won the RP Chase the other day. Skippers Brig has won at 3m so the step back up in trip should be fine.
One to possibly watch out for is Finger Onthe Pulse. Won the Jewson a few years ago off 135 and was an ok 6th off 150 in the Festival Plate last year. Things haven’t gone right for him in 3 runs since then and he’s been dropped 13lbs. He’s been entered for the WH, Plate and Kim Muir and looks potentially well handicapped.
#15
March 4th, 2010 11:55
Many thanks Stayer – and noted Darren. Pettitfour wasn’t even on my radar for Cheltenham and I am surprised he looks like going for the 4 miler. Just passing on what I was told from a total reliable source and that there has been money for the beast this morning. If you can tell me where he is best priced for the 4 miler on the Cheltenham blog, that would be rilliant Stayer. May as well have a small interest!
#16
March 4th, 2010 12:02
Ive taken a shine to Skippers Brig too for the reasons you have mentioned, although id like to see some cut in the ground for him. He gets 9lb from Razor Royale for that Boylesports run, and he was only beaten 3 lengths and, like RR, will appreciate the longer trip. Has to be a cracking ew bet, provided the ground isnt too quick.
Another who has solid form this year and ticks all the boxes is Palypso De Creek. Not beaten far in either the Becher (VV has franked the form) or in the Peter Marsh behind Old Vic (who too has run a cracker since) Has some good wins over in France too, hius jumping has been flawless whenever I have seen him he and could be one with a tonne of improvement to come. Again though he wont want the ground too quick – he also has a couple of other entries, so will be interesting to see which he goes for.
The Package has only won 1 chase, which worries me, but he is the best of those at the front of the market in my view.
Finger Onthe Pulse makes too many jumping mistakes for my liking.
#17
March 4th, 2010 12:03
If you look at the GN runners running at Newbury on Saturday (come on GTL you know you can do it – and he will!!) I think it will be the decisive information for the Grand National and not anything that happens at Cheltenham (possibly a pointer to one runner if we are lucky). No its Newbury that will tell us the most, just look at cards!. Just two days to go.
Gone To Lunch has an outstanding chance of a 1/2/3, anything else would be a problem unless they plan to run him again (a 1//2/3 and they dont need to).
I would advise a small bet on GTL so that you can buy into his lower price should he win on Saturday (if he won his price will drop like a stone) or is it more sensible to take the bigger price now (but if he did bad he would probably not run in the GN)- any views?
Daniel can we have your top 10 with points on Monday please?
#18
March 4th, 2010 12:09
Daniel,
Agree with your general point about FOTP hitting too many fences but he has won around Cheltenham before and off 137 looks potentially dangerous if he’s jumping can hold out.
Regarding the Cheltenham ground, Simon Claisse always wants the going to be good by Friday so as a result of him piling loads of water on the week before its normally on the slow side of good-soft on the Tuesday and slowly dries through the week. The WH is on the Tuesday so that should suit Skippers Brig.
Right no more Cheltenham I promise!!
#19
March 4th, 2010 12:27
Systemsman – will do
and then you have the final one after Cheltenham, and that’s your lot!
#20
March 4th, 2010 12:40
Before we move off cheltenham, read in The Express, that they planning to cover Saturday with the festival. Now I don’t know if that means another extra day (used to be three) or meeting starting on Wednesday. If former I think the races are very thin in quality as it is. Views please.
Also looking at National the is 26 horses at 11-0 or over even if half comes out, that’s still a quarter of the field with 11 stone something. Are we correct to dismiss these so quickly.
Thank for listening.
Hello mother can you hear me.;)
#21
March 4th, 2010 12:48
Sorry can’t access that Cheltenham site at work! Apologies – anybody able to look up Oddschecker and tell me where PETTITFOUR is the best price for the National Hunt chase on 17th March please. Sorry Darren!
#22
March 4th, 2010 12:54
Neil – I think the idea was to make it start on the Wednesday and run it until the Saturday.
I dont agree wiht the races being thin on quality – the first 5 races of the meeting, Supreme Novices, Arkle, William Hill Trophy, Champion Hurdle and then the fun of the Cross Country…..I would happily watch that day again and again!
#23
March 4th, 2010 12:57
Whiterab – He is 14s with Victor Chandler,William Hill, Boylesports, Betfred, Stan James and Skybet.
Ladbrokes know – they go 10s.
#24
March 4th, 2010 12:57
Hi kj,
I’ve had words with the powers with be to see what we can do about the text size – I’m not sure if it can be changed but I will follow it up – if there is anything else about the new format you want passed on please add to the thread I’ve added for comments and then I can pass everything on together – Thanks.
Re the Cheltenham site – we do need a few posters, such as yourself, to get things off the ground and I’m sure that blog could be as successful as this one – we’ve obviously all got strong opinons on the Cheltenham races so hopefully you will all give it a go.
#25
March 4th, 2010 13:01
You are a true gentleman Daniel – thanks very much. That’s my lunchtime trip sorted then.
Once you get used to the new look site, it’s just fine. More than fine. I quite like it.
#26
March 4th, 2010 13:02
Now now Whitey I’m not some sort of ogre you now
Just to prove it I’ll help you out with the info
PETITFOUR is 14/1 with a number of bookies – Skybet Tote, Boylesports , Stan James, VC Bet, Coral and Hills
Ah, I see Daniel beat me to it – Good luck with him anyway
#27
March 4th, 2010 13:03
The weight issue is as usual the greatest single and most important issue re GN to discuss. Playing ‘the most probable outcome game’ leaves us with Mon Mome top weight,
11-10, 3lbs rise and by my reckoning a very conservative estimate of 20 horses with 11st or more.(State of Play was no.46 on original entries with 10-11)
Admin, quite like the one page fits all, much better than batches of 50′s, maybe font could be more jet black or golden brown and less hugh cornwell. Get a grip on yourself, something better change or perhaps people wont be hanging around!
#28
March 4th, 2010 13:12
Am I the only one who prefers the new look!! The text looks fine to me?! Maybe its just my supermassive screen at work, dont know.
Have you guys tried changing your zoom settings in the browser? Which browser are you all using?
#29
March 4th, 2010 13:13
Sam Thomas to ride Tricky Trickster in Gold Cup – I never like wishing bad thoughts on people, horses or inanimate objects but if Earl and Randy are right and karma exists I wouldn’t mind if it moves in it’s mysterious ways on March 19th.
#30
March 4th, 2010 13:23
Crisp,
These new changes are only ‘skin deep’ and if you give me ’5 minutes’ I’ll see what I can do about making things a bit more user friendly. I’m sure our tech team will be working on it ‘all day and all of the night’!
Really wanted to get ‘Peaches’ in there but there just didn’t seem a way!
No, I’ll do my best to convey the general feelings re the new changes but already I can see that some of the things seem to be bringing a divided response i.e. one page fits all v batches of 50 etc so can I ask everyone to bear with us whilst we monitor responses.
Thanks
Darren
PS As I can hope you can all already see the issue with number of replies in recent threads has already been sorted
#31
March 4th, 2010 13:28
Oh Daniel you had to boast about having a big one, didn’t you
#32
March 4th, 2010 13:29
Admin, everything’s fine, much better. Just spoke to the duchess and she likes it, strange little girl. Who wants the world? Just a good blog will do.
#33
March 4th, 2010 13:32
Does anybody know why Oodachee is listed as a non-runner on this site? If you click on Trail Form and then Topham Chase,it comes up with a tip for Oodachee for the national and then says “Sorry.Oodachee is not running in the 2010 Grand National”.
#34
March 4th, 2010 13:36
You too are a gent Admin – thanks Darren, you are a gem.
#35
March 4th, 2010 13:40
Hi Corum,
Ah – that is my fault – I haven’t updated that page yet! Ooops.
Basically, when the page was written Oodachee looked more likely to make the race than he does now. Given that he is number 72 of the remaining 98 entrants I have decided that doing him a full profile and therefore creating a price for him isn’t worthwhile as he is unlikely to get into the race. The system thinks he isn’t running in the Grand National as he doesn’t have a profile on Grand National Guide.
I’ll take a look at that page and see if I can do something about it.
Thanks
#36
March 4th, 2010 13:55
Dear Admin, thanks for the quick response.
#37
March 4th, 2010 15:11
Hi admin, I see we’ve got times up (GMT) , would it change when it becomes BST or keep the same like last year.
#38
March 4th, 2010 15:26
Hi Neil,
If there is a problem at that time I’ll try and sort something out.
Thanks
#39
March 4th, 2010 17:40
No problem, also like the fact posts are now numbered. When I first came on (last April) noticed a hour difference in time. Then when GMT came in the time matched.Its not a problem just an observations and just saying that a time stamp with a comment helps future bloggers to know when last post was posted.
#40
March 4th, 2010 18:45
I find the Cheltenham site rather difficult to negotiate;is it just me?
#41
March 4th, 2010 19:35
Gone To Lunch -
He’s down for 2 Hcap chases on Saturday – top wt. in Veterans (soft) and 11.04 in Grimthorpe (good). This is D-Day for him and us.
I think he needs to win, it’s a big ask with his recent form but he has(had) the class and it’s time now to show it, no more messing about. A win would tick more boxes than a place. Like COD in the Eider it would be his first Hcap win and I think it would put him in pole position for the GN because of his wt. etc. – especially if wts. rise 3Lbs.
A place would only drag things out – will he run in another prep chase, will he run in the World hurdle, will he even run in the GN.
For me, Saturday is win or bust, first or last.
#42
March 4th, 2010 20:14
i would be happy with a staying on top 3
#43
March 4th, 2010 20:24
Interested to see what price Lysander is in the Veterans’ chase – this has been his target and he’ll probably have his usual 5 lb claimer on board too
#44
March 4th, 2010 20:30
Added Ellerslie George to my ante post bets today. May add Maljimar as well and that really must be it. At least all of my horses, apart from Kilcrea Castle are still in it, and most of them I’ve backed at a bigger price than they are now. Ellerslie George was 66/1 with Betfred [who are usually stingy with their prices, but for once beat the 50/1 on offer everywhere else.
#45
March 4th, 2010 20:46
Thanks for adjusting the site, it’s much easier on the eyes now. What does everyone think of Beat the boys?
#46
March 4th, 2010 20:49
Ellerslie Geoge now 129-1 on betfair if you fancy more Maureen
#47
March 4th, 2010 20:51
It’s only my personal opinion Maureen but I could not have Ellerslie George at all. I know his Badger Chase win was good but that was on OR of 132 and he has 144 in the National and I don’t think he is classy enough. And I would not go adding Maljimar to that portfolio either! He has never won a race over 24f and I have him firmly in the doubtful stayer over 4m 4f category. I am not at all trying to criticise your selections, more see where the other stalwarts see those two horses.
#48
March 4th, 2010 20:57
Ellerslie George – don’t think he will stay and carrying too much weight
Beat the Boys – won’t stay. Not great form in big fields. Too inconsistent
Maljimar – stamina and jumping dubious, and won’t have run for months. However, I’m a big fan and think he could surprise despite everything seemingly been against him. Classy individual
#49
March 4th, 2010 21:35
Jackie – Beat The Boys is by far my biggest winner at the moment but obviously there is a worry as you don’t know if he will be on a ‘going day’ or not! I also think that the ground will be important with him looking much better on good ground although a little bit of cut would be ok.
I keep putting a few €’s on here and there and it adds up at 200/1! Still a huge price on Betfair which is also a small worry.
#50
March 4th, 2010 21:40
Well I had a small bet on GTL today at 40/1 for the GN and will top up a little bit more tomorrow (have already got a big anti-post bet)just in case he does the job – I agree its all or nothing Saturday. Should he win his price will drop very big and very fast and taking the bet on the GN covers which ever race he rus in Saturday – the last chance to get 40/1 in the High Street I think as he should be capable of winning on Saturday!!
If he loses badly no run in the GN I think and no excuses. I think a win is needed but a good (and it needs to be good) 2/3 would still give him chance of running.
NO 1 for the GN if he wins in my book but I am still happy with SM and AS and HB in my “A team”.
#51
March 4th, 2010 21:52
I thought that if he has a going day, and the ground is good he could get placed. Worth a little bit anyway.
#52
March 4th, 2010 22:15
Last 11 winners of GN.
Total win (win only) prize money (chase&hurdle) before winning GN and their 2 highest prize wins in order.
M.M. 94K (57k+18k)
C.O.D. 91K (30k+20k)
S.B. 119K (58k+43k)
No.6 152K (100k+34k)
H.H. 67K (16k+34k)
A.H. 72K (29k+13k)
M.P. 88K (51k+18k)
Bind. 64K (18k+16k)
R.M. 60K (10k+29k)
Pap. 65K (17k+17k)
B.J. 89K (68k+09k)
Now looking at my Top 3 at this stage -
Dream Alliance 96K (57k+25k)
Snowy Morning 93K (14k+21k)
Gone To Lunch 61K (19k+19k)
Dream Alliance won’t have any more prep runs.
Snowy might have one more.
Gone To Lunch – still think he needs a win.
#53
March 4th, 2010 22:41
Crikey; No 6 had won a lot of money prior to his win for a horse I hadn’t even heard of! I’m a tad obsessed with backing 9 and 10 year olds, which is why I’m hedging my bets with some of them. Also horses that are being aimed at the race. Have set myself a limit of [don't laugh] £20, which I haven’t reaced yet! If I break even I’ll be happy!
#54
March 4th, 2010 23:43
Maureen, why should we laugh at your £20 limit. You obviously set a target and keeping in your budget. Remember the are three golden rules to betting.
1 Bet only what you can afford to lose. The money is not for any other purpose and you won’t miss it if you lose.
2. The are no guarantees. Who would have predicted Foinavon before his win, not me if I am honest although he was before my time he demonstrates my point.
3 Have fun. If your not having fun its time to call it a day (wasn’t that 4th one year). I don’t do it for a living, don’t know about yourself, but I starve if I did.
So no I am not laughing at your “limited stake” I say good luck.
#55
March 5th, 2010 00:32
Forgot to mention Eric’s Charm and War Of Attrition. Eric in the same 2 Hcaps as GTL this Saturday – needs to improve his left-hand RPR.
Total win (win only) prize money (chase & hurdle) and their 2 highest prize wins in order.
Eric’s Charm 74K (18k+21k)
War Of Attrition 532K (99k+228k)- looks mad
#56
March 5th, 2010 01:47
I was wondering what the Ruby Walsh situation might be….will he ride for Mulins or Nichols? will he be able to choose himself or will he be retained by Nichols? either way i guess he is going to be on a good horse at the top of the market.
#57
March 5th, 2010 07:06
It just my opinion but I bet Ruby will be on Tricky Trickster if he fit and lines up.
#58
March 5th, 2010 07:33
Hi Guys & girls, I’ve had a word from Henderson’s yard that Super Kenny is going to win at Newbury today and then onto the Triumph Hurdle.Its a short price to win today so maybe worth taking the 16′s for the TH.Good Luck
#59
March 5th, 2010 09:13
Looks like Ruby Walsh will be on TT and Barry Geraghty is riding BFT tomorrow so he may keep that ride for GN too
That would leave AP McCoy with Don’t Push It, Can’t Buy Time or Arbor Supreme I think
But I suppose things could change afer Cheltenham
Talking of Cheltenham – has anybody posted on the Cheltenham Blog yet? If so where? I looked yesterday, couldn’t find many posts and only the championship races (which are just there to be watched this year for me – 3 likely favourites and CH looks tough) seemed to be covered with their own thread.
Unfortunately not as user-friendly as this place.
Couldn’t we just have a dedicated Cheltenham thread on this site?
#60
March 5th, 2010 09:17
I know this is for Cheltenham but I thought I would post it up.
http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=Cheltenham
I agree with Pablo that a Cheltenham thread on here would be great as nobody seems to post on the main site and last time I posted it took a whole day for my posts to be approved.
#61
March 5th, 2010 09:48
I posted on there yesterday!!
A cheltenham thread on a site called ‘the Grand National Blog’ would seem a little odd!
#62
March 5th, 2010 10:00
Hi,
Re Cheltenham
The reason we have set up a blog on our Cheltenham site is so that hopefully people have an outlet to discuss their fancies/tips etc in an area that is related to the Cheltenham Festival and one that will hopefully be picked up by people investigating that topic. As we have previously discussed, we are reluctant to have threads about other areas on this blog as we feel its best to keep things primarily focused on the GN.
I appreciate that there hasn’t been much traffic to the Cheltenham blog but it does take time for these things to get off the ground and if even a small percentage of the people on here started posting then things would start to take off and other posters would feel happier at joining in.
I hope you’ll give it a go.
With regards to your individual comments:
Pablo,
Here is a link to a thread covering the ‘other’ Cheltenham races:
http://blog.cheltenham-betting.co.uk/cheltenham-festival/cheltenham-festival-ante-post-tips-other-key-races/
As with the issues we’ve had with the new software on this site if you want to let me know what you think the problems are with the Cheltenham site I’ll see if we can make things more user friendly.
Stayer,
I’m sorry you had to wait so long for your first post to show up but once you have been initally approved, as long as you use the same details, your posts will then immediately show on the site.
If anyone else has any comments on this topic please feel free to let us know your feelings
Darren
#63
March 5th, 2010 10:22
Admin (Darren)
Thanks, I have posted there (comment waiting for approval).
Maybe for next year – why not have a blog or link to a blog for each race beside/below the individual race? Then you’ll have trends, runners, odds and comment all in one place. Might make it easier to navigate.
#64
March 5th, 2010 11:12
Hold your bets on Super Kenny as its a non runner today and i don’t think it can win a Triumph hurdle 1st time out!! Sorry
#65
March 5th, 2010 11:20
Welcome back the Whackster!!
You’re cheek, charm and irresistably annoying yet strangely fabulous posts have been missed!
#66
March 5th, 2010 11:22
Wacky – do you know what happened to Super Kenny today? A non-runner.
I hope he’s not injured, as I already have my pennies on the TH.
#67
March 5th, 2010 11:23
Admin I feel you really would be better to rename this blog and house all under one roof eg ‘The Grand National Blog and more’ or ‘The Big Jumps Races Blog’ etc. Like many I can’t be bothered logging in to 2 sites, often don’t have time and having all topic threads in one place is very important for a quick glance if you’re really pressed or busy.
If you do that you will see your Chelts posts fly and all will soon know to come here for Chelts too (word spreads fast).
#68
March 5th, 2010 11:29
Grimthorpe Chase (3m2f) Donny:
Comply or Die
Possol
Cloudy Lane
Air Force One
Iris De Balme
Coe
Veterans Chase (3m2f) Newbury:
GTL
Ellerslie George
Eric’s Charm
Knowhere
Trabolgan
#69
March 5th, 2010 11:54
Hi All well DDay for GTL 2mo.
Sounds like a pc game lol.
Systemsman: left you 2nd important msg re Eurovision on OLBG on your thread.
Well we just don’t know do we re GTL..we’ll all have our thoughts and let’s see..
CAN’T WAIT FOR ERIC’S RUN – WATCH THOSE ODDS CRASH IF HE RUNS WELL!!
#70
March 5th, 2010 12:17
“Veterans Chase (3m2f) Newbury:
GTL
Ellerslie George
Eric’s Charm
Knowhere
Trabolgan”
This is a race GTL should be capable of winning and the best one for the much needed confidence booster.
Message to GTL: “come on beauty – you can do it!!”
No excuses after his race right?
Must get that extra small bet on GTL for the GN today – worth the risk of a lost bet.
#71
March 5th, 2010 12:27
Systemsman,
Connections have opted for the softer option for GTL as the Grimthorpe looks the more competitive race. The ground is a bit softer at Newbury than it will be at Doncaster but he does like Newbury. He was 5th in the Hennessy over C&D off a 6lb higher mark so unless he’s regressing he should win this or go very close at least. No excuses.
#72
March 5th, 2010 12:32
Thoughts on GTL’s race
Veterans Chase (3m2f) Newbury:
GTL – big chance in GN if back to form (should have the beating of this lot at this track really)
Ellerslie George – needs to improve again to have a squeak in GN, no form left-handed
Eric’s Charm – never performed on any big stage away from Sandown, no left-handed form, I would be astounded if this is anywhere near good enough aged 12 to win GN…would be the biggest shock since Foinavon…but you never know!
Knowhere – sums this one up perfectly – you’d have to worry for the others if this wins given his current form
Trabolgan – past his best but hope he runs well for old times
#73
March 5th, 2010 12:33
Personally if I wasnt on GTL, I wouldnt be backing him at the moment – I would much rather wait and have a bigger bet at smaller odds – you havent lost anything if you do this, whereas if you bet now and he runs like a drain, he wont run, and you’ve lost your stake.
#74
March 5th, 2010 12:37
Trabolgan is, obviously, not as good as he once was, but I think he might have enough to win this – his first run of the season was good given his injury problems. Ok he unseated next time out, but he didnt show any danger signs before he did that.
At a track which he won the Hennessy at off a mark 14lb higher, he could go well.
#75
March 5th, 2010 13:03
gonna put a lucky 15 on air force one,gone to lunch,can’t buy time and could’nt find another national horse to back so love of tara.
mainly hoping for a good run from GTL,also air force one not totally out of my calculations for GN.
#76
March 5th, 2010 14:11
hey wacky, you just sneaked in with a tip for today!!?
wheres your list of fancies for the big one!!!?
got any french breds to look out for
did you comeback cause of our devoted wacky key stats list the other day? were you mascarading as mandie? (sorry mandie) or you been spying all along.
Sorry, couldn’t resist, just had to get my questions/jibes in, hope you are well, and glad to have you back.
I’m curious, are you now backing half the field like the majority here seem to be? remember when you had a go at me for backing 6 I think, this yr its hard! (i’ve resisted and just backed 3 so far, 2 I may regret) Still not touched my betfair account, scares me, don’t think the stress of backing and laying is good for you, or good fun possibly, seems a bit like thieving to me!?
but I would like to see a full honest breakdown of someones GN betting and laying experience this yr. as food for thought etc. may tempt me yet.
How well do we think COD has to run tmw with 11-12? highly competitive race, all have to perform well, not all can top3.
My feeling is if he runs as well as MM midlands last yr with that weight, staying on, not bad thing.
Alot of weight in the GN but maybe fitter than last yr, its not impossible but more likely he’ll be 2nd again, bless. Shall I back him now as we know I’ll back him later! hmm
#77
March 5th, 2010 14:40
I applaud all keeping the faith on GTL and really wish you all the best 2mo.
I am on with Ewok and Pablo – bet on him just now is almost purely a bet on him being on form tomorrow.
I really hope it comes off for those who take the risk, I really do.
I think he could well romp home and win 2mo and go off 3rd fav or so for the GN.
But it is my conclusion that in very poor form just now it is too big an ask and I won’t be parting with my cash (or rather I have laid him) until convinced otherwise.
Soon we’ll know..but I wish all the best.
#78
March 5th, 2010 14:50
and me Showlad, im with you too!
#79
March 5th, 2010 14:56
Does anyboyd know of Newmill’s intentions for the Festival? He has a few entries, including the Champion Chase and the Vincent O Brien hurdle.
I cant see him being good enough to get anywhere near the leaders in the Champion Chase, but he would have to have a massive chance in the hurdle race.
40/1 at the moment, so I can only guess that he wont be running in that, but does anybody have any idea?
#80
March 5th, 2010 14:58
Iris de balme is another that really needs to show something tmw, currently still could get 40s, needs to win tmw to meet stats, but I think price will halve if 3rd.
Someone put up a useful post a few days ago about what each horse really needs to achieve in the grimthorpe, mostly win if I remember correctly, can’t find it, anyone got it?
#81
March 5th, 2010 15:06
Twas I, and I said thus;
Air Force One – Would be his 2nd run of the season. Already has a top 3 this season and meets the other fundamental stats.
Big Fella Thanks – Only 1 chase win, so really needs a win here to even get close to that stat.
Cloudy Lane – Meets the stats, save for weight and (depending which way you cut it) career falls/Urs
Coe – Like BFT only 1 chase winner. Number 79 in the entries as well, and I think he’s a non stayer over the Aintree trip to be honest.
Comply Or Die – would be his 2nd run of the season (as mentioned) but would need a top 3 to meet the top 3 in the same season stat.
Erics Charm – Has been discussed!
Gone To Lunch – ditto!
Iris De Balme – Would be only his 2nd run of the season and only has 2 chase wins too, so could do with a win really.
Irish Raptor – cant jump! Hasnt been top3 yet this season and hasnt placed in a C1 chase either.
Possol – Will be his 3rd run of the season (19/20 stat) and has already won this season.
So, COD & GTL need to place, and IDB and BFT need a win, from a stats point of view anyway.
#82
March 5th, 2010 15:33
well that is a stroke of luck me ole chum…
thank you kind sir.
God, I don’t know how I’m going to hold off, or if I should!!? something must do well out of those 4, all 4 been on alot of our radars for ages, all coming from completely different angles. I feel its important to remember just how average most previous winners seasons records actually look. Maybe I should go in now with CoD, his price isn’t going to go out is it, even if he’s 8th, been 25s since April.
#83
March 5th, 2010 15:36
showlad, i think it was you the other day that was drawing attention to the irish bookies and i have just seen that p.pow and boyles are offering the lowest returns on WOA. do you think anything should be read into this, such as money being gambled by the shrewd irish boys over there.has the mouse made a decision.
#84
March 5th, 2010 15:39
COD is a pretty decent bet on Betfair at the minute – back him at 30s, lay him on the day at 15 or so, which he will be for sure, and have a free bet on him at the difference, just in case.
I would also say an ew bet at 25/1 with a highstreet firm is pretty sound value too – he’s got to have more solid chances of placing than a lot of the other horses being banded around on here.
#85
March 5th, 2010 15:43
Happy to take that 40/1 on Gone To Lunch now for on Monday many will wish they had done so.
A risky statement after geting it right on SM and AS so GTL would make it 3/3 and that’s pushing my luck. But I see it like this if GTL cant win this then he’s unlikley to win the GN and a 1/2/3 is a mimimum for a GN entry and 2/3 would have to be very very close to the winner.
This is the perfect prep race for GTL and provided the rainer has done his job and the horse is fit (the big question) he shoild win and win easily considering what he achieved last April. He amy also be a horse who likes better weather and right now its sunny in the South/Newbury and has been all week!
In that library again but got to go now – got a winning bet to put on!
#86
March 5th, 2010 15:47
I know, I should…
Trust Fund only bookies mover today, can’t get that magic 100-1 winner with him now! 161 on betfair
I may have asked this before but has any horse that ran in foxhunters, and hunter chases won/placed in the GN?
#87
March 5th, 2010 15:48
Systemsman – the problem is, if you (the royal you that is) backed every horse before a race because it might come down in price for the GN after, you would have 100s in your book!!
I think those that arent on yet wont be kicking themselves come Monday if he does win/place – they will just put twice as much on him on Monday and feel more confident about his chances!
#88
March 5th, 2010 15:55
“Irish Raptor – cant jump!”
At Aintree on good ground he can and when he gets it right he wins the Topham – ignore his form elsewhere.
Think he should go for Topham again
#89
March 5th, 2010 15:58
definately couldn’t back GTL before tmw.
With the better weather, ground and course preference its atleast quite a black n white choice with him, although still a horse that will come through the field, aswell as the obstacles. Is Tony on tmw?
#90
March 5th, 2010 16:01
re irish Raptor KJ – I was referring to the plethra of F & UR in his form figures!!
#91
March 5th, 2010 16:08
err!$@? agree with you both, rapter for the topham
#92
March 5th, 2010 16:09
Tonys on Eric tmw, what does one make of that!
#93
March 5th, 2010 16:17
systems you remind me of my father in law.
you tend to here the good bets and news a few times but omits the losses and bad decisions.
did you not loose anti-post on church island for instance.not having a go,but remember the bad as well as the good so you keep a level head and more balanced decisions.i have backed GTL way back, but will not top up till after tmmw.
#94
March 5th, 2010 16:33
“Tonys on Eric tmw, what does one make of that!”
Might make me eat my words then when I said EC had no chance whatsoever in the GN!
Maybe Tom Siddall is his jockey for the GN – plenty of lesser jocks have won the GN
But not a particularly inspiring booking that’s for sure
#95
March 5th, 2010 16:33
Maljimar; was watching last years William Hill last night and he ran and jumped brilliantly. I did say to someone ages ago on here that the trainer had said that the horse can lose his race in the preliminaries, but he was quite chilled at Cheltenham; could boil over at Aintree. I don’t think he’d ran for ages before Cheltenham, so goes well fresh and is being aimed at Aintree. Again, he’s the right age and ticks a lot of boxes. [I've only got as far as the third race on day one; got a lot of viewing to do in the next week or so].
#96
March 5th, 2010 16:34
Meant TS might be GTL’s jock for GN
#97
March 5th, 2010 16:43
Doesn’t McCoy usually ride Eric’s Charm when he’s available?
#98
March 5th, 2010 17:10
Come on Eric!! On at huge odds : ) My concern with Maljimar is he hasn’t won 3m. Placed at 25f and 31f is that good enough?
#99
March 5th, 2010 17:13
AP never been out of the top 3 on Erics Charm, he won the race on Darkness last year, still dont think the horse is good enough to win the national but any horse who jumps Sandown well, merits respect. i do think we’ll see a better performance from GTL though on a track he favours. Tom Sidall on board suggests to me that the GN is the most likely option at the moment as i’d expect AP to be on board otherwise
likewise Mattie Bachelor has only been out of the top 3 once on IDB. Interesting jockey booking for Killyglen in that race
#100
March 5th, 2010 17:20
Not a good sign, GTL race only worth 16K, new jock on GTL, A.P. on Eric, Trabolgan 2/1F, Eric 3/1 and GTL 8/1-10/1. Will be an interesting race, maybe Eric will be in pole position after this race – it’s a cracker.
#101
March 5th, 2010 17:46
KJ.
You might have to go back to Grittar and Spartan Missile for hunters whoran well/placed.. but in recent years both Forest Gunner and Libertine were 5th and good hunters…
Re Cheltenham Fxhtrs and GN double…about 10 years agowe had a big punt on Cavalero (long story but a bit of inside info) and it won the Chelt Fxhtrs coming out of the clouds at 18/1 (we had it at 40′s and 33′s!!) Of course with a part of the winnings we lump on for the GN and it was no. 41 and eliminated!!!
#102
March 5th, 2010 17:57
Am I missing something, but if GTL has to win tomorrow and you’re topping up at 40/1, why not back to win tomorrow at 8/1 and reinvest the winnings at 16/1 or whatever the price ends up post-race and get 152/1? Even at 10/1 you’d get 98/1…..
Sorry, I can’t see the value in backing GTL today!
#103
March 5th, 2010 18:03
AP on Eric’s charm 2mo – go Eric!!!
If he has a great ride 2mo what about AP on him in the GN?
Massively intrigueing stuff!!
#104
March 5th, 2010 18:09
I am on GTL for small stakes each way at 50′s but I would not even back him with the mother-in-law’s money until he shows some form! Given that he is in a dodgy veteran’s race, unless he wins by a country mile, he will still be there to back at 33′s and 25′s minimum. And I say that as a man who thought to himself’ there is next year’s National winner’ after I watched him carry 11st 10lbs and nearly win the Scottish National.
#105
March 5th, 2010 18:35
Yes I cans see why many are waiting until after Saturdays race on GTL but I can assure you whitearab i wrong when he says “Given that he is in a dodgy veteran’s race, unless he wins by a country mile, he will still be there to back at 33’s and 25’s minimum” – if he wins you will eed to be quick to get 20/1 even.
mandie in betting ani-post each year I always assume that I will lose about two from 6 or so early bets. I never forget the loses ever! I’am still after revenge on the bookies for last year!!
Clearly I went on too early on Church Island who was always too big a price for a good reason (leason learned)but I too have early money on GTL and wil take the risk on him as he is our NO 1 in our chart and not any old runner. Its 50/50 but lets see.
#106
March 5th, 2010 19:43
Razor Royale. Racing Post chase winner is now 8lb well in for GN, handicapper has put him up to OR149 but he’ll run in GN OR141. RPR>OR 15. No C1 top 3 until this season, Party Politics was the last winner with this profile, C1 winner at 24f, 2nd to Poquelin in C1 at 21f, so no doubt he has the speed but will he last 36f? Won at 25f, furthest distance raced. Good handicap chase record, 2 wins from 6 runs. Chase win place strike rate is 60%, chase win strike rate 30%.
#107
March 5th, 2010 19:53
Razor Royale’s dosage suggest he should get 36f doesn’t it? In % terms speed 31%-stamina 69%. In a strange was looks like a Lord Gyllene-type. Failed on a couple of strong ’1 year before’ trends but had a 75% chase strike rate which is the kind of strike rate others that failed ’1 year before’ trends had.
#108
March 5th, 2010 20:03
RR has some good numbers – I suppose the only drawbacks would be Strong Gale as damsire (pretty dire record) and he looked to have had a hard race at Kempton in RP Chase (didn’t jump that well ironically – or at Sandown the time before)
Given his course form I wonder will he run at Cheltenham first and leave his race behind by the time he gets to GN?
Although Rough Quest won the RP and came 2nd in the Gold Cup before winning at Aintree
#109
March 5th, 2010 20:10
Think dosage numbers are only a rough guide:
DP = 2-0-8-9-3 (22) DI = 0.38 CD = -0.50
That looks good but it’s for Barbers Shop who probably wouldn’t get the trip
DP = 1-0-11-8-2 (22) DI = 0.42 CD = -0.45
And that’s Twist Magic – who’s supposed to be all speed!
Probably need Ben to explain more…
#110
March 5th, 2010 20:19
Speed-stamina % of last 19 winners
Mr Frisk inconclusive, less than 10 dosage points
Seagram 12-88
Party Politics 31-69
Miinnehoma 42-58
Royal Athlete missing data
Rough Quest 15-85
Lord Gyllene 21-79
Earth Summit 53-47
Bobbyjo 40-60
Papillon 25-75
Red Marauder inconclusive
Bindaree 35-65
Monty’s Pass 50-50
Amberleigh House 50-50
Hedgehunter 54-46
Numbersixvalverde 20-80
Silver Birch 20-80
Comply Or Die 42-58
Mon Mome inconclusive
#111
March 5th, 2010 20:25
Not the slightest interested in Twist Magic, Barbers Shop …. I was looking at the merits of Razor Royale from a stats perspective having just discovered his new OR info on RP.
#112
March 5th, 2010 20:38
Or an alternative look at breeding via influences:
Horse; Sire; Sire influence
Mr Frisk; Bivouac
Seagram; Balak; (Busted)
Party Politics; Politico; (Right Royal)
Miinnehoma; Kambalda; (Right Royal)
Royal Athlete; Roselier*
Rough Quest; Crash Course; (Busted)
Lord Gyllene; Ring The Bell; (Right Royal)
Earth Summit; Celtic Cone
Bobbyjo; Bustineto; (Busted)
Papillon; Lafontaine
Red Marauder; Gunner B
Bindaree; Roselier*
Monty’s Pass; Montelimar*
Amberleigh House; Buckskin
Hedgehunter; Montelimar*
Numbersixvalverde; Broken Hearted; (Busted)
Silver Birch; Clearly Bust; (Busted)
Comply Or Die; Old Vic
Mon Mome; Passing Sale
* means more than one GN winner
#113
March 5th, 2010 20:40
“Not the slightest interested in Twist Magic, Barbers Shop …. I was looking at the merits of Razor Royale from a stats perspective having just discovered his new OR info on RP.”
Easy…
Surely if the same speed: stamina ratios are to be found in 2 milers and 2.5 milers doesn’t it throw the whole dosage thing into question? Or are you happy to ignore that?
#114
March 5th, 2010 21:12
Pablo, the only thing I’m ignoring was your reference to two horses not even entered in the GN. You don’t know if Razor Royale will get 36f and neither do I and we could sit and contemplate it’s pedigree for the next 5 weeks and still not know. His basic speed and stamina % are in keeping with previous winners. That’s all. I’ve even asked would he get 36f in my post. I haven’t even advised anyone to bet on it. People have been posting ‘to get stuck in’ with their cash to certain horses and not a squeak from you. Perhaps they are tipping horses you like, I dont know. Razor Royale, at this stage, has some good stats. I don’t know what your problem is with me, every time I post you come back with something usually quite quickly and usually with nothing or not much in common with what I’ve posted.
#115
March 5th, 2010 21:19
Pablo – i’ve made some badge that say “Crisp shouted at me for no reason”
Shall I send you one and you can join my club?!
#116
March 5th, 2010 21:38
I have no problem at all – just putting forward a different perspective for discussion. I respect what you say as much as anyone else on here and like your work and stats (although I don’t use them all – but each to their own – we all have to bet with our own money).
I have been using dosage but don’t know what to do with the Strong Gale influence because it appears to counteract positive dosage numbers, which makes me question the dosage all over again – hence I put up other horses with “good numbers” that aren’t stayers.
I also listed some positive influences as an alternative approach.
Last year there was Rambo mania and I was all over him too but this year I think that there needs to be some debate to avoid the same happening again.
I apologise if you mistake my alternative views as hostility because they are not meant to come across like that – maybe I should qualify what I say more.
I hope that we are all after one thing and that’s the winner.
(As I have said before I am not betting anything before 5 day decs when all form is known and the final 40 almost there – other than Cane Brake who would have to be a complete stats-breaker now so looks like lost money but I won’t trade out – just in case).
#117
March 5th, 2010 22:02
I’d have major doubts over Razor Royale’s staying power, however that could change if he performs well in the willhill – which could show ‘how well in’ he is. the strong gale record is dire though.
currently have a theory on the dosage figures, and will post more on them with further research. obviously they work better on some races more than others. theory is mainly based upon points spread in a horse’s index
might not be the best example but horses with points close together in their index are very much limited to their optimum trip,
ie. Denman
DP = 0-1-1-6-2 (10) DI = 0.18 CD = -0.90
where as Kauto Star proven over a variety of trips (quite similar to Best Mate)has his figures well spread and therefore isnt limited to just one trip
DP = 2-2-6-10-2 (22) DI = 0.47 CD = -0.36
those figures of Twist Magic above also prove that he is limited as to what trip he goes for.
this does require a fair bit more research, but i do think the dosage figures are of much more use on the flat and have started to use them very successfully in certain races
#118
March 5th, 2010 22:05
I don’t think whitearab is anything like wrong on GTL. He is running a very, very average race and if the trainer really wanted to see where GTL was at in terms of form and fitness, he would have gone for the Grimthorpe. The vets chase has three bottom weights on 126, 126 and 126 OR. So he is already ‘well in’ with those 3. Then come three 12 year olds. As has been commented on here, Trabolgan is a shadow of his former self. Given who his owner is, if he was considered prime GN material, he would be up the weights and running. Knowhere is well past his best and Eric’s Charm may win this but personally, I give him zero chance in the National. Unless GTL wins this doing handstands, he will certainly be available at at least 25/1 after the race. My advice if you are tempted is back him to win tomorrow and double it for the National to small stakes. I think you can take a National price with an SP price tomorrow. I genuinely hope GTL runs well but I would not encourage anyone to go backing him right now.
#119
March 5th, 2010 22:29
Steady lads – I thought you 2 were the best of buds – it’s been a long time, looking at stats since last April, this race is killing us.
Like the film – Network – stick your head out the window and shout “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take this any more”.
Razor Royale is a worry. Have been looking at this lad for the last few days.
If he did win, he would create a new profile for a GN winner.
He does match many of the stats but I will stick to 30/30 stat – original and extended, which he does not fit and if W. Hill race(25f) at Chelt. is his last prep (7 runs), then he won’t even sneak in the back door with the old 3×24(1×28).
As you said, he has no C1 top 3 by 30th. April which is 16/16 stat.
Party Politics hadn’t either but had shown us more class and over distance in better key races with 2nd. Hennesy and 2nd.@30f. Welsh National.
Same with Lord Gyllene, won @26f; @34f. and then 2nd.@34f. – R.R. has only won @24f. and @25f. – mind you he hasn’t run any further than 25f.
Rough Quest did win RP and was 2nd. in GC but back to the key races, he was 2nd. in the Hennessy.
I think Razor being at 8 year old might have a better chance next year, if he keeps up the good work.
#120
March 5th, 2010 22:35
Watching last years RSA; interview with GTL’s trainer said how much he hated soft ground. Could that be a reason for him not running well so far this season. However, did say that when he fell in the Foxhunters [?] it was because he overjumped; not good for a potential Aintree horse.
#121
March 5th, 2010 22:42
I thought I would chip in with my views/opinions on the race at the moment and let you know my fancies. I have been pretty quiet on here this year so far but here goes…
Four Contenders
Big Fella Thanks (16/1) – A gallant effort for one so young in the 2009 running, he should have more about him this time around. And with Barry Geraghty being lined up for the ride he will have a cool pilot to guide him and help him to conserve a bit of energy for the end of the race. Aimed at the race all season; Expect a bold show in April.
Arbor Supreme (25/1) – The Mullins horses should always be feared and in Arbor Supreme he has a stayer of great potential. Not quite as classy as some of these but looked good on his latest outing. Again, Aintree has been the aim for him, has won on Soft and Good ground and is fair value at the current prices.
Snowy Morning (25/1) – Becoming used to this race and has performed well both times he has ran in it. Jostled about a bit last year under a heavy burden and faded as a result. An encouraging prep run recently though and a lighter weight in the race itself all points to another fine effort on the cards.
Character Building (33/1) – Has been very unlucky not to make the line up on two occassions, he deserves his chance this time around should he get there. Ticks most trend boxes and having not been raced much this term, will go there fresher than most. A sighter around Cheltenham in the William Hill is on the cards; And then it’s on to Aintree.
Out Of The Ball Park
Air Force One (50/1; Bigger on Betfair) – Clearly had his injury problems, but back with a decent third behind Tricky Trickster and Niche Market in the Aon Chase recently. Passes every trend I use and this classy individual will be a lot shorter in price should he put in a sound effort tomorrow in the Grimthorpe. Worth a small go, at the prices.
#122
March 5th, 2010 23:07
Crisp on razor royale, yes he does have the correct dosage for the trip and yes he has form at 3 miles, but not much more. His jumping was very low, almost looked like a tired horse on Saturday. If he jumped the same on national day he might end up sitting on the chair. However a bigger worry for Razor Royale when I looked at it from my stats is that he’s no 1/2/3 in a field of 13 runners. He may fall at the first when amongst the cavalry charge. PS if that were true I don’t wish the horse (or any horse ) harm. In fact when race is over win or lose I watch the replay and hoping that no causality this year.
Pablo on breeding (I know the example I about to give are not in national )
I give you three horses Best Mate, Cornish Rebel, Inca Trail. Exactly same parents (un desperando and katday ) so exactly same dosage and any other way you want to look at breeding. Yet totally different. Breeding a start but its not everything.
Last but not least hi to the infamous Wacky,love to absorb your knowledge on the national.
#123
March 5th, 2010 23:21
You don’t need to correct me crisp, spotted my mistake, he has form in field of 13+ in fact he won one on Saturday. What I meant was he no form in extra large fields of 18+. This stat I’ve replaced for his jumping, but I don’t think his jumping is up to it either.
#124
March 5th, 2010 23:33
Stephen, the man with “the 12 trends of Aintree”
I know you have said “trends and common sense is the way to go and 9 or 10 out of 12 is OK”.
I see 3 of your top 4 do not match the 12th. trend, which Mon Mome did last year.
Remember last year you were mad that you didn’t stick with the 12 trends which gave 8 horses(all I think matched the 12th. trend) including Mon M.
Do you think this year there are very few good ones that match the 12th. trend or do you just prefer those 3 horses anyway.
#125
March 5th, 2010 23:34
Neil
You’re right neither dosage nor breeding influnces are 100% correct. I gave an example last year of One Cool Cookie and In Compliance – full brothers but different histories.
Maybe nature and nurture are both considerations and maybe look at form not breeding.
I think maybe positive breeding traits be they dosage or influences should be used as a determinant of “strength of bet” rather than “reason to bet” – if that makes sense!
I have a few “strength of bet” indicators which I am working on – not trends but positive influences that winners have that maybe placed horses don’t.
#126
March 5th, 2010 23:55
Tc dosage doesn’t work all the time. Like you I thought that dosage only worked on top class flat races (Derby for example )
Ben came along (on this blog) and showed me how to apply it to the national hunt scene. Had loads of winners since using his figures. Including a 10/1 & 20/1 winner at Sandown recently which gave me some betting money for the national.
Been going over some past results of the National lately a few shocks on dosage. Well to do (71) DP 10, DI 2.33,CD 0.40. Grittar (82) DP 28,DI 3.37,CD 1.07.
Last Suspect (85) DP 28, DI 2.33, CD 0.80.
West Tip (86) DP 18, DI 2.60, CD 0.44.Little Polveir (89) DP 12, DI 2.43, CD 0.50 & Mr Frisk (90) DP 8, DI 4.33, CD 0.75
Their dosage all suggests speed rather than stamina. However I think it can be explained the used to hunt round in them days and raced on second circuit, now they seemed to be racing on both circuits.
#127
March 6th, 2010 00:03
Kj , was lord atterbury a hunter chaser? I seem to remember him finishing 3rd at big odds one year
#128
March 6th, 2010 00:03
Pablo my thoughts exactly.
#129
March 6th, 2010 00:19
Think I try to grab some of that 150/1 on MR POINTMENT more than likely chucking my money away, but when I first saw him jump the fences ( bechers) thought what a natural. Then again in that years national he was enjoying himself. I’ve a theory horses who enjoy themselves out in front are hard,not impossible, to pass. Then came the race against Black Apalachi, and before dropping to 75 lengths beating he was almost along side winner jumping the last, on ground he hated.
My thought is on better ground, fast, he could be worth something. Well thanks to Easter the ground has an extra week to dry out.
#130
March 6th, 2010 07:02
Miinnehoma,
Very well spotted that three out of the four I mentioned don’t meet that magical “30/30″ trend. I shall explain my reasoning behind the choices from a trends point of view…
Both Character Building and Air Force One meet all of my “12 trends”.
Arbor Supreme meets the first 11 and fails on the last trend. But he has won 2 x races at 3m4f+ and 1 race at 2m4f. So that is very close to the “won 3 races at 3m+ (1 being at 3m4f+)” part of the final trend. Therefore, I have allowed some room for the trend to be moulded slightly if indeed he did win.
Snowy Morning meets the first 11 and fails on the last trend. He has finished 3rd in a race over the National fences and not “Top 2″, as the trend states. But once again, this is so close to the mark so as to allow that slight change should he win.
Big Fella Thanks meets the first 11 and fails on the last trend. He would break the mould on the final trend if he won. But he has a 6th place finish over the National fences and I just feel he will be much better this year, especially if Geraghty rides him. The value in his price probably isn’t there now, but he is just a horse that niggles me in that I can’t put him in my “no” list.
What do you think guys and gals?
#131
March 6th, 2010 08:23
Ok my fancies for today (feel that kiss of death wing over to the blog with these horses now, lol):
Before I start Pablo and Crisp – fabulous contributors and gr8 mates – 1st Saturday of each month is an obligatory peace and make up day, didn’t you know?
Grimthorpe: Cloudy, Mill Side, Merigo
Newbury 2.35: Ellerslie George
Newbury 3.10: Our Vic, Batllecry.
Off out now, back tea time.
Willie Mullins Diary on GoRacing stuck on last Fri, if any gets new diary update please send me link to make sure I can access later. Thanks all and good luck and (even tho I ain’t tipped him) to those on GTL.
#132
March 6th, 2010 10:07
Hello again from down town Walford, Sorry i’ve been away so long but as most of you will know i’ve been up on a Murder charge and the mrs wanted another baby!!! For a while i thought i would be watching the nat from HM Prison cell and phil would be bringing up my adopted child!! Anyway back to the national and as you all must know i well and truly had my fingers burnt with Rambling Min and i lost more money on that horse than i earned in a week!!But all was not lost as i won it back laying the horses that didn’t fit the stats and luckily for me that FRENCH bred was to big a price to LAY!! This year seems much harder but if we apply the main stats im sure that in the next few weeks things will become clearer.Im against the front 6 in the betting at the moment and will be laying all of them on the day.I’ve backed 2 horses so far and they are Snowy Morning & GTL but i’ve only had small stakes on both as they both have ? over them in 1 way or another.
Oh well best get back and sort that TART of a daughter out!!! lol ian
#133
March 6th, 2010 10:17
welcome back wacko.
you really do need help, (and not just with finding the winner).
have the wilsons now moved out of the square?
C.O.D. non-runner today,where now for his much needed prep.?
#134
March 6th, 2010 11:52
Re Maureens observations about Maljimar . I agree and I really like this fellow . As Maureen says in the William Hill chase he travelled beautifully . I know there are so many who think he wont stay but based on Un desperado being his sire , surely hes got to have a decent chance. Im sure Un desperado sired Nil desperandum, philson run and cornish rebel who were placed in english and scottish nationals and two of them won an eider.!! Does anybody have any of these fancy dosage figures or can scientifically comment on his likelihood of staying rather than a subjective viewpoint based on his narrow defeat against Wichita lineman ?
#135
March 6th, 2010 12:23
Hey Stephen – I had the same feeling about Big Fella but just looked at his profile again. Last year before GN BFT had 6 prep races – pretty much ideal. This year 2 preps which would suggest the National took it out of him. On 15/11/08 BFT got whooped by one of my fancies this year, Ballyfitz and now at worse terms. That can be turned around but on the face of it BFT looks to have a tough job. I myself am hoping for a good run from GTL today. Cheers.
#136
March 6th, 2010 12:24
Oh, and well done Admin – the new site looks spot on.
#137
March 6th, 2010 12:54
Silver birch is that maljimar you want?
His fancy dosage figures are:
BRILLIANT 0
INTERMEDIATE 3
CLASSIC 8
SOLID 3
PROFESSIONAL 0
DOSAGE PROFILE 14
DOSAGE INDEX 1.00
CENTRE OF DISTRIBUTION 0.00
A well balanced horse in speed & stamina, even using crisp’s terms 50/50.
For national from Royal Athlete to Mon Mome the majority range is DI 0.18 to 1.00 and have a 83% success rate, while CD majority range is -1.00 to 0.00 and have a 75% success rate.
Hope I answered your question Silver Birch!
#138
March 6th, 2010 13:23
Anybody have any news on whether or not Notre Pere will miss the GN, as well as the GC?
#139
March 6th, 2010 13:24
Cheers neil – That fab !! straight from the dosage laboratory..:-)
Wow – I guess that means the dosage figures would at least suggest hes not a forlorn hope but maybe not the strongest , albeit the bigger question maybe to do with him turning up without a run for nearly 90 days … txs fot that anyway much appreciated – I’ll keep him in my top 6 list for the time being…
#140
March 6th, 2010 13:29
Very excited about today’s racing – feeling confident that the Grand National winner is racing today. Will be watching very keenly and will be posting up my conclusions for the Grand National tonight (if I don’t drink too much!). Updates on my website are almost done too. Loving Saturdays!
This year’s race has been frustrating me since the weights were announced (woke up from the DREAM ALLIANCE with a sore head and a bad back). Wishing VIC VENTURI wasn’t carrying so much weight in the biggie too. What I’d give to know the outcome of the National already but you can’t buy time, can you George?
Get the racing started – my Grand National nerves are tingling!
#141
March 6th, 2010 14:12
I have been given a free £5 Victor Chandler bet. Anyone got any tips for the remaning channel 4 races today?! Win or each way
#142
March 6th, 2010 14:50
That’s Gone to Lunch well and truly ruled out for me. Has just lost the plot these last few runs
#143
March 6th, 2010 14:50
Go on crisp.
#144
March 6th, 2010 14:51
well, there you go first time in 5yrs I think, Tony gets back on Eric, wins (and left handed). I assume from comments, Tony has no plans to get on for GN however. Tony didn’t go for GTL today and no chance he will get on this monkey again in the near future. Oh dear.
#145
March 6th, 2010 14:57
I still wont be backing Erics Charm – he still jumped right at times and it was hardly a tough race, so winning it doesnt say too much.
Ellerslie George out of contention too now.
Bye bye to GTL chances too…shame
#146
March 6th, 2010 14:58
Cloudy Lane, anyone?
#147
March 6th, 2010 14:59
Don’t fancy Cloudy Lane for National but fancy him today a bit.
Placed my free £5 bet on Jacarado in 2:50 at Kempton. 2nd at 11/1 – can’t complain!
#148
March 6th, 2010 15:13
interesting comments from AP after the race on EC, saying that he jumped out to his right once he started to tire but was able to get away with it in on a ‘straight’ course. The canal turn may just cause a problem or two for EC! Anyone encouraged by the performance of Knowhere – doesnt fail a stat, travelled really well in the national for the last 2 years under big weights, would be interesting if he got in
Shame about GTL, looks very likely that he’ll now run in the SN.
#149
March 6th, 2010 15:15
Hi Maureen
Was at Haydock when Cloudy Lane had a spin in a 3m hurdle race and was going up and down on the spot from 2 out….making me thing it doesnt stay although 6th to COD was fair effort 08.
#150
March 6th, 2010 15:16
BTT looked good but CBT off the list now…
#151
March 6th, 2010 15:17
BFT bound to shorten now, looks a very solid place bet in the national especially if BJG keeps the ride, but not a horse i’d back to win
#152
March 6th, 2010 15:19
Cloudy Lane looked out on its feet in 3m hurdle spin at Haydock the other week (I was there…) so not sure it will stay although fair 6th to COD in 08 but had a smallish weight that year…
BTT now joint fav!!
#153
March 6th, 2010 15:20
Am guessing nobody thought Knowhere is worth another look at after today??
#154
March 6th, 2010 15:25
Knowhere makes far too many errors to win the National
#155
March 6th, 2010 15:25
BFT I meant…doh…C’Mon IDB…
#156
March 6th, 2010 15:31
Well done to all those on BFT already – but I wont be rushing to get on him at 10s!!
Might be worth a saver, enough to get stakes back, on the day.
Little point in backing anything between now and before the end of cheltenham in my view anyway. Prices wont shirnk much, but the picture could all change
#157
March 6th, 2010 15:32
So IDB out of the picture as well?
Has today made the picture clearer or muddied the waters do we think?
#158
March 6th, 2010 15:33
AFO doesnt bode well…Possol cr*p jumping…CL didnt really stay (as mentioned above)…Coe wont get in and IDB looked well poor……
Hmmmmm
#159
March 6th, 2010 15:35
think the national picture has all of a sudden become a lot clearer… some very disappointing performances, but 2 stand-outs in the veterans chase
#160
March 6th, 2010 15:46
shame I just missed the 16s on BFT now 10s! Couldn’t have resisted after that, esp as he got 5pts on my original list together with one other vote 6pts from Mandie? (hope you on already)
lost out on my list last time, just, due to lack of preps (6 last yr, now 3 and a win this) and worry he could stay quite enough.
Still worried not quite enough staying power, but not at all bad if you already on!
#161
March 6th, 2010 15:51
KJ yeh thanks i was on last sept. with stan james at 33′s, but not crowing because to be honest is a good bet but not outstanding, as i still am not 100%.
#162
March 6th, 2010 16:00
Agree, 33s good, but sometime ago, 16s not exactly great value, 10s forget it. Going to wait reassess post cheltenham. Does he have an entry there or anywhere else before GN? I think its what I’m waiting to see as I think 6 runs fit last yr was ideal, to go that little bit extra.
#163
March 6th, 2010 16:02
I’m reserving opinion – I need to sleep on this. My thoughts have changed so dramatically today and my conclusion is that Phil Smith has done an awesome job this year. Pleased I had a few quid on Big Fella Thanks after last years race but not sure the answer lies there. When you have an idea in your head and something negative happens then it’s important to take stock. I wanted to give you CAN’T BUY TIME, ELLERSLIE GEORGE, IRIS DE BALME and AIR FORCE ONE. But I’m determined to get the winner this year so I’ll not give an opinion until I’ve got one… a proper one. I hate Saturdays!
#164
March 6th, 2010 16:02
Found this article on Iris De Balme in the racing post newspaper from his trainer.
” He’s in good form & we expect a good show from him. 3 miles 2 will be on the sharp side for him but we wanted to run. All being well he’ll go for the Grand National and from there we may have another go at the Scottish National. ”
Maybe it was too short and also lack of fitness that was against him today, but the are worst outsiders to have than him.
#165
March 6th, 2010 16:03
And I backed Possol today too… WOE ME lol
#166
March 6th, 2010 16:05
There’s been money steadily trickling onto BFT for ages now. Shame about GTL because the trainer is such a good bloke [was watching the interview with him before Cheltenham the other night]. Need to see how Character Building gets on at Cheltenham, now. Interesting that none of us have ever had an interest in Possol. Hope Barry Geraghty sticks with BFT at Aintree..wonder who Ruby will ride in the end? Depends how TT gets on in the Gold Cup [my ew hope for that]. It’s all falling into place now [I think....]
#167
March 6th, 2010 16:21
Well the waters are clearer and in some cases littered with my anti- post slips.
My gone to lunch slip is in the bin and has been replaced with an Erics charm one….those with fancy prices about Big Fella, well done, he looks a good thing, but the current price is too short for me.
Ellerslie george’s run was kinda lack lusture, however with 8lb less and better ground he might run ok in the national, i have visions of him lobbing along in front for a long way.
Knowhere is too much of a monkey to know what to think about him and he might not make the cut. possol was very dissapointing, Iris de balme, i guess should be crossed off lists and air force one did not stand up long enough to pass judgement.
But with 3LB less and a year older Big fella thanks is the one to take from todays racing, the 16′s that was available this morning looks real good value now.
#168
March 6th, 2010 16:21
i am very disapointed in IDB, another of my ap bets, and yes he did need the run and 3/2 was probually not ideal but to me he did just not look right at all. the jockey looked like he was having some sort of fit the way he was fighting with him constantly and he had several flat spots dropping back.would not be surprised to hear that all was not well.
#169
March 6th, 2010 16:31
Its one of those days – feeling very down after that crap run by GTL – just dosnt want to know of late does he (didnt even get into the race at all)?
More than once this year it has felt like starting from square one and this is just one such point. Looking forward to Daniele points scores on Monday which may help a bit. Those that have waited this year with their money in their pocket may have done the right thing.
On the positive side I’ve still got SM, AS, HB and DA (+NM who has too much weight) at good anti-post prices.
The only teeny weeny grain of hope for GTL if he should run is that he stayed on today and 4miles + would suit him better. Plenty of GN winners have had bad years other than the one OK race. But I’am clutching at straws here on that performance and recent running I doubt if he will be entered now unless they plan another run.
I think next week i will sit dwon and do a complete re review once again!
#170
March 6th, 2010 16:34
A very enjoyable days racing.
I am pleased I got on Big Fella Thanks last night after my small write up on here about my fancies. Whoever rides him at Aintree out of Ruby or Barry will do for me and he heads there now a leading player.
Also holding Ante Post tickets on Arbor, Snowy and Character Building, so happy with how those three are progressing for Aintree.
Disappointing from Air Force One today as I thought he had a decent chance of showing his credentials. But don’t rule him out just yet. He only went a couple of fences before unseating Paul Moloney, so nothing too strenuous, and he is entered at Cheltenham in the William Hill. A fair effort there and he isn’t totally out of the picture for Aintree. Whilst winning the race looks a tough ask, the 66/1 at VC Bet with 4 places is reasonable enough for the each way theives.
Finally, Eric’s Charm surprised me today with his ability going left handed. AP said after the race that the long straights helped him, so maybe Aintree wouldn’t be too much of an issue. Again, struggling to see him winning the race, but the 100/1 available at Hills still is worth some loose change each way.
#171
March 6th, 2010 16:38
Ithink its clear to me and been toying with the idea for several days now my next bet could be on the Dessie Hughes pair and I don’t care if they are 11-06 in the initial weights at least pair are in form.
#172
March 6th, 2010 16:58
WH haven’t repriced EC yet you can still get 100′s if you’re very quick, trading in the 50′s on betfair so a free back to lay for a good profit.
#173
March 6th, 2010 16:59
I agree with Neil S, I’m going on a couple of the heavier ones now, no value in GFT, but still nice saver on Eric, IF he puts his best foot forward.Awful runs fron GTL and IDB. Still on HB, AS and DA. Small saver on BTB too. Thought about CBT, but don’t think so after that run.
#174
March 6th, 2010 17:00
O and SM.
#175
March 6th, 2010 17:03
Time to give up on GTL or not?
his first 2 runs this season offered a little encouragement, the rest really have been awful much like MM last year. One thing is for sure that he is likely to be a totally different horse on the better ground, and if there is one horse staying on late it will be him. he didnt exactly have the best prep run before the scottish national either. Please apply some headgear and give him a nice prep in the world hurdle!!
two things definitely learnt today is that having a full season and plenty of prep runs during the season is essential for a national winner – unless its a Pipe horse. the other a horse running over hurdles during the season seems to be becoming more common to keep up the horse’s enthusiasm
#176
March 6th, 2010 17:08
My Top 3 at this stage -
Snowy Morning
Dream Alliance
Eric’s Charm
#177
March 6th, 2010 17:11
don’t think you can compare GTLs season to MM last yr, you must have been watching the wrong horse! TC GTL needs a miracle.
#178
March 6th, 2010 17:20
kj
it was a very disappointing performance, but he’s run well in headgear before, and a good run in the world hurdle could really rejuvenate him. obviously a big ask, but i’m not going to give up on him just yet. The GN is run over 36f not 27f and at least he’s one who i’d expect to stay every yard on some decent ground.
#179
March 6th, 2010 17:29
TC
too many things need to fall right now, I think the ground could still be against him, maybe headgear would work, in that way more reminiscent of CODs preps last yr, esp. today… looked interested at first then spat the dummy out. Theres a tiny glimmer if you already got money on, but the rest of us well wait for cheltenham.
#180
March 6th, 2010 17:31
Even if a horse meets all stats and trends it has to be in some kinda form to have a squeak and after todays performance Gone to lunch just don’t have it for me, even if he stays on in the national….no horse wins from out the back, most winners are there or there abouts for the last half of the race.
#181
March 6th, 2010 17:32
I tried to check into WH early today, just went back still seems broken, maybe thats why they still seem to have Eric at 100-1.
#182
March 6th, 2010 17:36
havent backed him at all, and probably will wait to see if anything comes out of cheltenham – which i think is unlikely. the jumping was of most concern, but how much would that improve on better going? i do agree a lot needs to fall right for him now, but it would be silly to write him off, given how the hennessy form has worked out. would like to see him have a spin over hurdles though to get some old spark back if he is to tackle the national
#183
March 6th, 2010 17:45
I didn’t think Iris good or bad really today, thanks Neil for posting trainers thoughts which basically says they ran him over too short a distance to get him fit. And that could be just it, needs another run for sure.
#184
March 6th, 2010 17:46
puzzled – how would you have rated MM form prior to the national last year?
horses can win from out the back and the race looks set up for that this year given the amount of front runners likely to be taking part. Arbor Supreme is a very good hold up horse who looks the ideal type for mccoy
#185
March 6th, 2010 17:52
Puzzled, so you haven’t heard of Rhyme ‘N’ Reason then, and I know I now talking of ancient history here, but it could happen again.
Don’t tear them ante post slips, I remember doing one in the Gold Cup (Cool Dawn at 25/1). Surprised me when it won, because I did it ages ago (to the event) and when it ran gived it no chance.
#186
March 6th, 2010 17:53
Also watched last years race on U tube and Mom Mome came very late on scence. Watch it yourself if you don’t believe me.
#187
March 6th, 2010 18:04
I think the Gold Cup is now the key race in this year’s National.
It’ll help clear up a few questions for me:
1) How badly did Denman run in the Aon – and by association how did NM and TT really perform?
2) Has What A Friend improved from the Hennessy? His Hennessy form ties in with Denman, NM & GTL. (Also think Joncol – at 18 hands – could be a serious horse next year – so be keeping an eye on WAF).
3) How good is TT? (NTD loved him and Nicholls seems to think a loit of him too)
4) Is Casey Jones the forgotten horse? (No handicap form but Gold Cup form has to be respected I feel.)
But from today BFT looks a worthy favourite. My favourite jockey on board and very impressive trial. (And another 8-y-o AS is coming off a career-best RPR.)
Eric’s Charm surprised me but then I still have my reservations because it was a veterans’ Class 2 race.
Well done to anyone with a 100, 200 or 300/1 bet on him. You can’t argue with those prices for a horse who is arguably in the form of his life at 12.
#188
March 6th, 2010 18:08
Obviously Casey has no Gold Cup form yet but he might have in a couple of weeks.
#189
March 6th, 2010 18:10
I’m actually thinking about backing NM before all 16s gone, still fancy him with all that weight, and seeing if I can get a quid on old EC at 100s… but can’t as WH site not workin properly. Now says alert if you click on bet? anyone else experiencing this, can someone check.
#190
March 6th, 2010 18:11
In the form of his life, a nust have ew tipple at odds..it’s looking good for Eric..and STRAIGHT to Aintree – perfect rest and time
Today:
Sherwood said: “This is very emotional for me as I buried my mother yesterday and this was her favourite horse.
“He’ll head straight to Aintree now and we may then look at the bet365 Gold Cup at the end of the season.”
#191
March 6th, 2010 18:23
Also the Gold Cup & Cheltenham might clear away a few from the top of the handicap (or it might not!)
Currently we could be heading for a record number of 11’0+ runners
The list since 1990:
1990; 2
1991; 7
1992; 4
1994; 3
1995; 4
1996; 4
1997; 1
1998; 3
1999; 3
2000; 11
2001; 5
2002; 8
2003; 7
2004; 10
2005; 12
2006; 7
2007; 10
2008; 18
2009; 16
#192
March 6th, 2010 18:29
Happy today with BFT. Really didn’t expect him to win at that trip! Am on @20/1 thankfully. Him and SNowy looking decent bets for me.
Sorry for all you GTL supporters on here. But you all have to admit you were taking somewhat of a leap of faith backing him after his last few runs.
One of the others I’ve backed is Cane Brake. Any one heard/read any news on him?
#193
March 6th, 2010 18:38
currently 27 11st+! I could see that falling to 23 easily, but if top weights come out, adds a bunch back in. The sheer weight of no.s makes the good bunch in the 11.01- 11.06 bracket more tempting and those 11.01- 11.03 even more with potential rise of 3lbs.
Remind me why do we use the 11-06 as absolute limit?
#194
March 6th, 2010 18:44
KJ
74 Red Rum 12’0
77 Red Rum 11’8
82 Grittar 11’5
83 Corbiere 11’4
88 Rhyme ‘N’ Reason 11’0
05 Hedgehunter 11’1
09 Mon Mome 11’0
So since the marvellous freak Rummy 11’5 has been the max carried
#195
March 6th, 2010 18:57
No news on Cane Brake, Giant
Don’t know whether no news is good news!
Another horse we won’t get much news about is State Of Play – leap of faith but on a handy weight
#196
March 6th, 2010 18:57
I adore all those heroic horses.
I thought Grittar, would run in this race forever, my dad had to bet on him every yr it ran. Corbieres yr (my yr) was brilliant my dad also had Spartan Missile. We went mad!
#197
March 6th, 2010 19:12
Just looking at A-Z Of The Grand National Book and this is great:
1983: Corbiere 1st 13-1, Greasepaint 2nd 14-1
1984: Greasepaint 2nd 9-1f, Corbiere 3rd 16-1
1985: Corbiere 3rd 9-1; Greasepaint 4th 13-2jf
Ok not great prices but great performances nonetheless
And then West Tip:
1986 1st
1987 4th
1988 4th
1989 2nd
#198
March 6th, 2010 19:14
Speaking of leap of faiths – guess Ive a cheek saying that about those who have backed GTL since I have backed SOP.
More out of loyalty, as he won me a few quid on e/w punts in last year’s race. That and the nice weight he has.
#199
March 6th, 2010 19:17
Nice story behind BFT’s bid:
Big Fella Thanks teamed up with Barry Geraghty and the 8-1 chance got the better of the Ruby Walsh-ridden stablemate Pasco by one and a half lengths to provide Nicholls with his fourth win in the race in the last five years.
Findlay named the horse after his record-breaking greyhound who won the National Coursing Derby at Clonmel in 1999.
He said: “We had to have the dog put down two weeks ago at the age of 13 and he was pure class.
“I was emotional with what happened to the dog but that was brilliant to watch.
“He was 20-1 when the Grand National weights come out and I am kicking myself for not backing him.”
#200
March 6th, 2010 19:25
Can you imagine the interview Claire Balding vs Harry Findlay should BFT win!?!
…before the watershed too
#201
March 6th, 2010 21:23
Character Building has been a springer in the William Hill Chase market for the festival tonight. Anyone got any idea why? Big run on the cards?
#202
March 6th, 2010 21:26
I’ve only just noticed that oddschecker are showing RUK replays; not sure if this is new or if I’d never noticed them before? This means that, along with ATR replays I shall be burning a lot of midnight oil in the next few weeks.
#203
March 6th, 2010 21:55
I noticed the same thing on sportinglife today!
Can’t see it on oddschecker, don’t like to keep it open tends to upset my computer.
Watched Eric again, jumping right occasionally, bit of a worry, and as for Knowhere, well occasionally he springs up from somewhere, bit hard to read.
#204
March 7th, 2010 00:07
Iris De Balme finished distressed in his race. I fully expect him to be pulled out at next forfeit stage. Gone to Lunch they said they might try the headgear again.
#205
March 7th, 2010 00:54
“TC
March 6th, 2010 17:46
puzzled – how would you have rated MM form prior to the national last year?
horses can win from out the back and the race looks set up for that this year given the amount of front runners likely to be taking part”
Apart from 1 or 2 average performances Mon mome has shown good form, he was not made the favourite for the Welsh national for nothing, in the blue Sq he was 7th to Rambo on heavy ground which maybe is not his ground these days and it was a big ask off top weight in the midlands national on soft going over 4 miles. I took 33′s early doors as he was one of my 6 last year, made me feel ill when i got a 100/1 winner and only got 33′s….but thats racing.
With the benefit of hindsight MM had good peices of form met all the trends apart from being French bred, and we all know how that clouded our judgement last year….and was not the no hoper his price suggested.
Sure horses can win from off the pace and i am sure it has happened in the national, but it is the exception as to the rule….in most nationals the winner has been up with or just off the pace, but sure there have been exceptions.
“#184
Neil S
March 6th, 2010 17:52
Puzzled, so you haven’t heard of Rhyme ‘N’ Reason then, and I know I now talking of ancient history here, but it could happen again.
Don’t tear them ante post slips”
Like i say sure it can happen, but after todays race and previous form this season i just cannot see any reason why Gone to lunch should suddenly improve come April.
All i was trying to say was that he is no longer within my radar based on what is now becoming a succession of poor runs, we were all Rambo bonkers last year after his run away win in the blue Sq, since this race he has showed nothing if he was running this year how many of us would have him on our lists this year?
Sure it’s great to try to get the value many weeks before the race, and you win some and lose some, but if a horse i fancy is clearly not performing i am willing to be objective and say so, GTL might meet all the trends and stats, but stats are only a guide it’s performance and form that are the real indicators.
GTL was one of my bankers purely based on stats/trends and the 2nd to Hello Bud in the Scotts national, but after todays race there is something obviously amiss and i fail to see how we can still find him an attractive betting opposition.
But in order to sucessfully find the winner we must be prepared to look beyond the anti post slips in our hands, there is little point in having faith in little peices of paper when the horse upon them is obviously so out of form and not the horse he maybe once was, after todays race hes participation must be in some doubt.
#206
March 7th, 2010 01:19
Puzzled having reviewed the racing post comments it looks like GTL has fallen out of love with the game. Maybe the headgear will revive him, I don’t know. All I am saying is that until they pull him out, don’t count him out.
To quote Noel Le Mare it is a race with strange unusual finishes. Probably why it captures the public’s imagination.
#207
March 7th, 2010 01:23
Although I be honest with you I haven’t got GTL in my ante post slip, I do have IDB and the signs are not good for him, but until he’s officially pulled out I can hope.
GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR OTHER ANTE POST BETS.
#208
March 7th, 2010 08:45
Ladies and Gents – was just scrolling through some comments going back to the trainers reaction to the weights when I stumbled upon these remarks from Willie Mullins
Of his other runners, Mullins talked up the chances of Equus Maximus (10st 9lb), Beroni (10st 13lb) and Deutschland (10st 12lb), though only the first of those is a definite runner at this stage. He was not so complimentary about Arbor Supreme (10st 8lb), who, he said, was “not the greatest jumper out of soft ground. I think he’d want it good”.
Could it be we may have our eye on the wrong one apart from snowy morning ?. Certainly Equus Maximus may be a dark horse here. Nobody has mentioned him up until now . Hes 270/1 on betfair and runs today I believe . Ive put a couple of quid spare change on him. He could be interesting if he runs well today and some of his form suggests there will be worse 270/1 shots..
#209
March 7th, 2010 10:41
To Systemsman and fellow ante post GTL backers, yesterday was not good news. I take no pleasure from his very poor run but I do think he can now be classed as a very, very unlikely winner. Same for IDB and I never gave Eric’s Charm any chance and I still don’t. Only word of caution is to look at Mon Mome’s form in the Midlands National before he won at Aintree. On that, should have been 200/1 at Aintree! I was very impressed by BFT yesterday but don’t fancy him as the winner either but time will tell. He is definitely a live contender. Of the bigger priced horses, although it is tking a punt, I think Character Building might be interesting at 33s if Quinn can get him back to anything near his best. He won a handicap as easily as you will ever see at last year’s Festival and I recall Mick Fitzgerlad saying a couple of years ago that he saw this horse as ideal Grand National material. Compared to other horses at those sort of prices, I think he is still a bit of value. An interesting to see a post above saying he has been backed for Chelts.
#210
March 7th, 2010 11:23
I’ve already backed Character Building but may top up my bet again. He’s been one of my main ante post bets for 2 years now, so have to stick with him again. Cloudy Lane ran quite well considering he was giving a lot of weight to the other horses [except Killyglen]. He was clobbered by the handicapper a few years ago, and still needs to come down the handicap [think he's not a big horse, which doesn't help]. Connections were very keen on him last year, although I may be blinkered by the fact that he is a McCain horse and if trained elsewhere may not be on my radar screen. This other horse of Willie Mullins; have no idea who he is at all. Way check him out. Deutschland is down to run in a handicap [s] at Cheltenham; worth keeping an eye on him.
#211
March 7th, 2010 11:40
Found this from Racing Forum (posted by Gerald/Me6) – think its from RP:
Willie Mullins, who has 10 engaged, said: “I will run as many as I can, but I think Deutschland (10st 12lb) is too young, although he will come over one day.
“Arbor Supreme (10st 8lb) has a good chance. He will love the ground, has a lovely weight and is a nice age. He wouldn’t want the ground soft as he can’t jump out of it.
“Snowy Morning (10st 13lb) would be the best of mine, but I don’t think Ballytrim (10st 1lb) or Pomme Tiepy (9st 12lb) will get in. Jayo (10st 10lb) is too young and although Dooneys Gate (10st 11lb) is a nine-year-old, we have only just found out he doesn’t stay.
“Beroni (10st 13lb) has a lot of weight, and while Irish Invader (11st 5lb) showed he loved it last year, I am astounded at the weight he has got. He is entered at the weekend and may run then and will have one, if not two, outings before the National.”
#212
March 7th, 2010 12:07
Having digested yesterdays races have taken IDB and Possol off my ‘possibles’ list ( I know…a bit obvious) and added EC to my ‘ew’ list.
Watched last years race again and BFT didnt really get home (bit of a freak year with so many in with a chance at 2nd last mind) so can’t be tempted as may be a legless 4th at best and no e.w. value there…
Did I note some discussion about horses coming from off the pace?? I agree it doesnt happen much these days and last year so many were ‘in touch’ that nothing came from the clouds…last time that happened was A.House and that wasn’t a plan, he’d just been virtually stopped at the melee at first Bechers and G Lee rode a sensible race to get him back …
Watching ‘old’ races (60′s and 70′s) it happened more esp as first circuit was about ‘keeping out of trouble’ and many winners hardly got a mention till 19th onwards. These days the winner can be seen in the first dozen most of the way…Check back…!!
#213
March 7th, 2010 13:08
Puzzled never truer words said in post #204:”there is little point in having faith in little peices of (ante post) paper when the horse upon them is obviously so out of form and not the horse he maybe once was”.
Air Force out of GN prov going not too soft in Irish.
OK Team – regrouping required in the ranks – NOW – Sir!!
Systemsman you’re going to have to give yourself a good old shake!! That’s coming from corporal Showlad!!
Anything wrong with your AntePost Church Island bet – NO!! His longs odds were because he didn’t ‘fit’ many people’s ‘popular’ idea of a fancy. His withdrawal was a shock not to give him a go in the GN. I was on too.
Anything wrong with my RCS ante-post loss – NO!! Great trends fitter and a mystery withdrawal.
THose of us on Iris – if he withdraws – anything wrong – NO!! Great Scots Nat winner and was showing prog comeback (til yest).
You took a risk on GTL and it didn’t work out (yet) so just shake a tail feather and get back in the race.
You’re obv a smart cookie and have a pc, so maybe start getting onto betfair? There you can lay off odds at a profit at times and still retain a good free bet on what you keep back.
For me I’m still in the plus, I feel, with my Ante posts and that’s how I’ve raked in on Silver, Comply and Mon in last 3 years.
C’mon Sytsems get back on the horse!
For me there will be a couple of totally relevant additions to the short list, but the winner, in the main, will be form our ORIGINAL group inc Hello, Snowy, Arbor (if he runs)and (DEFO won’t be ruling out because of weight) Niche and the ‘brilliant but in and out and his last run didn’t bother me’ Dream.
Cashing in chips or holding them is your call and you win some, lose some. As Neil would say if there’s no fun in it and/or can’t afford the outlay don’t risk it (that’s general advice not specific to you).
For me this year I’ve made good on not cashing in on: Eric, Ellerslie and Snowy. Not so good on not cashing in was possibly now Iris and also definitely Church and RCS.
Cashed in on GTL cause I figured I couldn’t afford to sustain loss if he ran, as was my slight inkling, poorly on Sat (good) and Arbor – remains to be seen (if he runs I’ll need to go back on but made double profit in lays).
Week before Chelts coming up.
Team – EYES BACK ON THE BALL!!
#214
March 7th, 2010 13:14
Neil posts #202 and #205 can you please post up full quotes?
Thanks
Also anyone know what’s happened to Willie Mullins ‘Friday, lol’ blog on GoRacing. Now Sunday and not up.
#215
March 7th, 2010 13:16
Nick re BFT and last years effort.
I thought it was very creditable for 7yr old novice. He had 6 runs prior to that effort also, so he may have been slightly over cooked.
A year on he will be stronger and is more experienced. He also has been laid out for the race with 3 prep runs. Added to that he should be carrying less than the 11st1 he had last year.
That’s my theory behind backing him. I do agree that there is no value in his price now though.
#216
March 7th, 2010 13:26
Is there room for a pre Cheltenham top 6 vote, Showlad?
#217
March 7th, 2010 13:55
Fair point Giant esp re weight providing top 3 dont come out.
Perhaps PN has gone back 30+ yrs when the theory was a good 2 and half miler was ideal Aintree type/prep so yesterday was impressive but all value gone.
Would still lay it not ‘getting home’ esp if going soft or worse.
#218
March 7th, 2010 14:31
I feel i’ve almost backed everyone in the national. These are the horses i’ve backed so far
1)Big Fella Thanks 167/1 (double – 13/1 yesterday and 12/1 national)
2)Eric Charms 700/1 (double – 10/1 yesterday and 70/1 for national)
3)Snowy Morning 66/1
4)Ellerslie George 200/1
5)Arbor Supreme 25/1
6)Mr Pointment 140/1
7)Seven is my number 350/1 (like this horse but just taking a punt)
8)Gone to lunch 50/1 (moment of madness)
9)Trust Fund 240/1 (might not get in)
#219
March 7th, 2010 14:44
Er showlad, I didn’t put up post #205 puzzled did, and as for post #202 that was Kj (unless a post has been added, waiting for clarification).
The posts after are mine:
Post #203 Iris De Balme finished distress in his race was from the racing post result section. Don’t know if you have to be a fully paid member to read it, but it’ll be in print in todays paper.
Gone To Lunch is also from same source, full reading is:
Not at his best since finishing 5th in the Hen, was down another 3lb and showed no appetite for game and was the first beaten. He consented to plod on late and connections will presumably slap some headgear on in future (has run well in visor before).
The no quote in post#206 just GOOD LUCK!
When I quote from something written down I try to put full quote in.
#220
March 7th, 2010 15:21
#217
john
March 7th, 2010 14:31
I feel i’ve almost backed everyone in the national. These are the horses i’ve backed so far
1)Big Fella Thanks 167/1 (double – 13/1 yesterday and 12/1 national)
John you will not get such generous odds if BFT wins the national. When one outcome relies heavily on another bookies will only seetle the bet at special odds that they quote, for example yesterday i placed a bet for Gone to lunch to win yesterday and go on to win the national, the shop had to ring through to the odds compliers and i got the reduced odds of 200/1 instaed of the 400 and something to 1 that it should have been.
The likely hood is that your bet will be settled as 2 singles….this winter a guy placed a bet on snow on regional weather centres, he did not know about this rule and he would have won £1000′s instead they settled his bet at £30 quid if i remember rightly.
So guys beware if an outcome relies on another in it being the same horse, special odds must be quoted.
#221
March 7th, 2010 15:47
So although BFT had no votes here, other than mandies and mine, loadsa people got a ticket! grr, I’m not annoyed I didn’t put my money down, honest
Although general ‘limited’ expressions about him not staying over the last fence and up the run in, always been definate place material, suddenly here peoples feelings of lack of prep have turned into perfect laying out prep!? think this is the kinda thing that happens, but in a group, esp when some peoples opinions louder than others. We are going to get distortion.. GTL NEEDS A MIRACLE! I REPEAT..
er, good jumper, looks a total national horse to me. Got the magic double ‘ll’s I was getting vibes on, thats the most important thing obviously. Gutted not onboard, as we’ve all said no value now!
My opinion of BFT hasn’t changed much, a great win is a great win, thats it, he is a year older and he is a nice big… fella!! nice and broad across the chest, tall… dark handsome
No last night I finally went for NM,
won’t back lower than 16s so went for it,
made good money on his Irish nat, so owes me nothing, plus ofcourse I think he has great chance, progressive, workman like attitude (not in a fixing a hole in the road workman sense, this phrase is so outdated) big worry if weight rises yes, 11st4 the limit really, oh well, couldn’t wait, he is flying the flag for 9yr olds!
#222
March 7th, 2010 15:58
As the value has gone on Big Fella thanks it may pay to put it in doubles with Spain and Brazil to win the world cup .
Be a nice double when the 12/1 goes onto a 4/1 or 5/1 shot in the world cup
just a thought
#223
March 7th, 2010 16:10
KJ, i always look out for your posts as they always seem to hold water for me.funny enough,i too was looking again last night and in MM in partic as i stated earlier still dont think i have found the winner,even with good bet on BFT.i have in my opion a few good a/p bets for frame finishes but winner not sure.what i did notice is the weight for distance finishes in the previous 2 nationals between SNOWY and M.MOME.as i was thinking that MM was the best looking bet of the top end,but to me shows how well in i think SNOWY is.the hunt continues.
#224
March 7th, 2010 16:13
I assume NM is niche market. I didn’t have BFT I am no back stabber, I wouldn’t say a horse has no chance then back it the next, not unless a convincing argument was put forward.
Niche is still my number one and my instincts still say him.
#225
March 7th, 2010 16:35
Pablo, ye , said days ago if we want a pre-chelts Top 6 table, as well as a post chelts Top 6, then cool. Then no-one posted up,lol.
So if you wanna start ball rolling then all good.
Neil, something spooky going on, lol,your post I referred to was 203 re GTL and Iris, my mouse must have created an optical illusion for me to mention 202 and 205.
#226
March 7th, 2010 16:35
I didn’t realise till yesterday that Erics Charm was a half brother to Monkerhostin. When I saw how he hung to his right when tired I thought of the canal turn, but also thought of him at the last fence jumping straight towards the elbow.Haven’t backed him, though. At least the Mullins horse did nothing today, so thats another one to not worry about. I think the ‘winning a race valued more than [?] £17,000 is going to come into play in a desperate attempt to reduce my very long ‘short’ list.May top up bets on horses that have drifted out eg Dream Alliance and Hello Bud, and Character Building who may again be one of the favourites after Cheltenham.
#227
March 7th, 2010 16:46
Back stabber!?? sorry I’m confused, what I say?! Just feel now that BFT and TT, both lovely young good (NichoLLs) horses, I now may regret not being on, experience may still rule the day! as I assume we all felt on here, as both less discussed.
And yes Neil, I did mean NM not MM, although come race day if weights don’t rise MM not without chance Mandie, down the inside eek! Going to stick with COD and his round the outside upfrontness!
A friend of mine wanted the Eric’s Charm outsider tip, so I’m happy with that, promised a good night out if it top4s! although today I’m more worried about tipping a horse that jumps right, well fingers crossed its all ok, god it wears yellow too, don’t look, hope my jockeys stay away from it for sure.
** Timmy Murphy beware!!!**
not that I backed COD yet! just think they could end up in similar area, near front. I won’t want those free drinks if it takes out horses enroute! didn’t think of that did I, well, think I’m going to have to start praying! its still the best 100-1 tip I could give. Yes Maureen looks like Monkerhostin too, he refused after bechers when he had a go!
#228
March 7th, 2010 16:50
Is there anyone here who likes Dooneys Gate? I won’t be backing him but have had a sniff around the outsiders and there are worse. He has won a low grade 3m race and was favourite for a 3m race in December. Ruby said he ran too keen early doors. 313/1 on Betfair
#229
March 7th, 2010 16:52
sorry maureen, that reads like YOU look like monkerhostin! I mean Eric ofcourse haa, ha!
#230
March 7th, 2010 17:03
Speedy – see post 210 – Mullins thinks Dooney’s Gate doesn’t stay but don’t want to put you off a 300/1 bet
Horse has Strong Gale as damsire too – but also sire is Oscar so he’s one of those will he/won’t he stay ones like Razor Royale and Offshore Account (both same sire & damsire as DG) – but then as discussed breeding not 100% accurate guide anyway
#231
March 7th, 2010 17:08
cheers Pablo. If trainer says he doesn’t stay then not backing him!
#232
March 7th, 2010 17:34
Anyone know if COD entered anywhere now, cheltenham? 38/40 ran within 7wks of race, although Pipe says not a worry, stats say it is.
Also, where is a full list of aintree races? need to get stuck in
#233
March 7th, 2010 17:42
Hopefully Iris maybe a bug or something that has passed now? Maybe a ray of light..
Quote today: Although Iris De Balme had finished a satisfactory fifth on his return over hurdles at Wetherby last month, he failed to build on that as he trailed home last of 11 finishers on Town Moor.
Trainer Sean Curran has not located a problem, but a full medical check will be carried out.
He said: “He seems fine today but we’re having the vet come and look at him tomorrow.
“There’s nothing wrong that you can see but we’ll know more after the vet has been.
“Plans are on hold for now.”
#234
March 7th, 2010 18:18
OK Team as Pablo suggested let’s get this pre-Chelts Top 6 Table on the go!!
This will be Phase 3 of 5. Phase 4 opening when the last Chelts race has been run, and Phase 5 opening at the 5 day dec stage.
Phases 1 and 2 of the table are below. Phase 2 movers are denoted by + on the way up in our estimations and – for being held in less high of a regard.
Big movers in table 2 were those perceived as the weights ‘winners’ Cane, Iris, Snowy, State, Arbor and Air.
Niche and Dream plummeted, GTL rose very highly and the best ‘steady top showing’ went to Hello Bud who held his position and garnered somewhat more votes into the bargain.
I have removed all non-runners inc Kilcrea Castle of whom we are certain is not to run.
Top 6 Tipsters Final Phase 2 Table:
+47 Gone To Lunch
+43 Snowy Morning
+29 Hello Bud
+28 Iris De Balme
+23 Arbor Supreme
+23 Cane Brake
+21 Air Force One
+21 State Of Play
-12 Dream Alliance
-12 Niche Market
+11 Character Building
+10 Maljimar
+8 Ellerslie George
+ Mr Pointment
+7 Ballyfitz
+6 Tricky Trickster
+4 Backstage
-3 Black Apalachi
+ Le Beau Bai
-2 Parsons Legacy
+2 Trust Fund
+2 Vic Venturi
-1 Comply Or Die
+1 Madison Du Berlais
+1 Mon Mome
-1 My Will
+1 Whinstone Boy
Top 6 Tipsters Final Phase 1 Table:
40 Niche Market
28 Dream Alliance
26 Hello Bud
21 Gone To Lunch
17 Black Apalachi
11 Comply Or Die
10 Trabolgan
10 Big Fella Thanks
10 My Will
9 Snowy Morning
6 Don’t Push It
6 Parson’s Legacy
6 Arbor Supreme
5 War Of Attrition
5 Character Building
5 Possol
4 Casey Jones
3 Backstage
2 Cane Brake
2 Over The Creek
1 Mr Pointment
OK whose gonna be brave and get the ball rolling. Pablo, lol, where have you gone
#235
March 7th, 2010 18:34
yes, Comply and a bunch of others who won’t have <7wk run, including Niche Market, down to run in will hill chase. Found the secret draw again on RP writing bureau! totally forgot how to see a horses entries, christ I'm awful. Still, 2 runs not real good for Cod as stats also point to 4-8 runs 18/20.
Crisp – where are you! I wanted to know your take on the weekend and then some! Was suprised to find you fighting with Pablo tother day, I thought your discussions together most interesting and thorough!
Any springers in the new system DE?
I'm sure you are all sorting your latest pre chelt top6!! I better get on the case too, will be back soon..ish, well might be mid week now, gotta stop messin about and report back Showlad sir, sorry sir!
#236
March 7th, 2010 18:38
Ballyfitz 6
Dream Alliance 5
Niche Market 4
Hello Bud 3
Maljimar 2
Arbor Supreme 1
#237
March 7th, 2010 18:53
Bally a fav of mine too tho no class 1 win – do u think he will just love Aintree and that extra distance?
#238
March 7th, 2010 18:53
no but i put all my doubles seperately, put the money on bft to win yesterday and stuck it all on him then for the national through betfair.
#239
March 7th, 2010 19:18
Arbor Supreme 6
Snowy Morning 5
Big Fella Thanks 4
Mon Mome 3
Cane Brake 2
War Of Attrition 1
Arbor Supreme 7
Ballyfitz 6
Dream Alliance 5
Snowy Morning 5
Niche Market 4
Big Fella Thanks 4
Hello Bud 3
Mon Mome 3
Maljimar 2
Cane Brake 2
War Of Attriton 1
#240
March 7th, 2010 19:25
Showlad. I think ballyfitz if he turns up
Its gonna b a hide behind the sofa job!
It could be an absolute disaster or might make
A man of him.! He got a bit of class though.
#241
March 7th, 2010 19:39
It’s ok kj; I know what you meant to say!Ballyfitz is a nightmare of a horse, as we know that he’ll be staying on at the end of the race [if he doesn't fall]. I’d love to see Black Apalachi get a clear round this time as well. Looking at the lists the ones that we know should jump ok are Niche Market, Mon Mome, Maljimar and Hello Bud.Of those I would imagine that Maljimar hasn’t won a race of sufficient value. A lot of hope being pinned on horses that throw in the odd catasrophic jump. And Tricky Trickster could be Champion the Wonder Horse.
#242
March 7th, 2010 20:03
good win for Ballytrim today, makes him a perfect stats fit for next years national
what’s the likely cut-off point for the national? think i’m going to use the first 65 for the top6′s
#243
March 7th, 2010 20:12
TC last year was 74..
#244
March 7th, 2010 20:31
being that he figures on most lists whats the general feeling about arbor supreme? do we think he will line up or not?
#245
March 7th, 2010 20:54
No Info I can find anywhere puzzled.
Even Mullins blog is 2 days late on goracing.
The drought of post his ‘nice last run’ info is quite staggering…
Anyone?
#246
March 7th, 2010 21:03
all the LLs baLLyheLL.
so no list tonight.
Watching the film on five ‘WAR’ now
#247
March 7th, 2010 21:34
Can only find 3 out of 90 -
6 – Snowy Morning
5 – Dream Alliance
4 – Eric’s Charm
List -
11 – Snowy Morning
10 – Dream Alliance
07 – Arbor Supreme
06 – Ballyfitz
04 – Niche Market
04 – Big Fella Thanks
04 – Eric’s Charm
03 – Hello Bud
03 – Mon Mome
02 – Maljimar
02 – Cane Brake
01 – War Of Attriton
#248
March 7th, 2010 21:43
What has Eric got in common with -
Master Minded, Cenkos, Nakir, Oh Crick and Encore Un Peu.
That last one is a cracker and is worth saying again – Encore Un Peu – say no more.
#249
March 7th, 2010 21:49
Ballytrim was high on the points system this year, but wont get in – one to watch for next year.
Somebody wanna help me out a post a definitive list of ALL the entrants who ran this weekend, so I can update the points table tomorrow.
#250
March 7th, 2010 21:56
Think this is the full list (COD didn’t run)
Our Vic
Cloudy Lane
Possol
Can’t Buy Time
Air Force One
Big Fella Thanks
Gone To Lunch
Ellerslie George
Equus Maximus
Erics Charm
Iris De Balme
Coe
Knowhere
Trabolgan
Ballytrim
Kings Advocate
Merigo
#251
March 7th, 2010 21:56
Let’s help Daniel out…
Off the top of my head..
Eric’s Charm
Iris De Balme
Gone To Lunch
Possol
Ballytrim (tho won’t make cut)
Ellerslie George
Big Fella Thanks
Cloudy Lane
Our Vic
#252
March 7th, 2010 21:57
..thanks Pablo
#253
March 7th, 2010 22:14
From Pablo’s list-
Our Vic – 8th.
Cloudy Lane – 4th.
Possol – PU
Can’t Buy Time – 6th.
Air Force One – UR.
Big Fella Thanks – 1st.
Gone To Lunch – 5th.
Ellerslie George – 7th.
Equus Maximus
Erics Charm – 1st.
Iris De Balme – 11th.
Coe – 3rd.
Knowhere – 2nd.
Trabolgan – 4th.
Ballytrim
Kings Advocate
Merigo
Dooneys Gate – 2nd.
#254
March 7th, 2010 23:24
Got the missing places from those on Pablo’s list.
Ballytrim won the 4.00 at Naas,
Equus Maximus was sixth,
Kings Advocate was seventh in same race.
The one run from yesterday was Merigo in the race won by Wogan (3.25 Doncaster ) was sixth.
Hope this helps fill in the gaps Danny boy.
#255
March 8th, 2010 09:00
Thanks one and all! that took me 5 minutes rather than 50 cos of you guys. Cheers.
Top 20 is;
Snowy Morning —- 6.63
Ellerslie George – 6.13
Hello Bud ——– 6.00
Parsons Pistol — 6.00 (no run since Jan), but entered at Chelt)
Beat The Boys —- 5.93 (no run since Dec, but entered at Chelt)
Gone to Lunch —- 5.63
Cane Brake ——- 5.50 (no run since Dec and NO entries at Chelt)
Ollie Magern —– 5.40
War of Attrition – 5.30
Albertas Run —– 5.28
Vic Venturi —— 5.28
Mon Mome ——— 5.18
Madison Du Berlais – 5.18
Joe Lively ——- 5.15
Ballyfitz ——– 5.13
Eric’s Charm —– 5.10
Arbor Supreme —- 5.10
Air Force One —- 5.10
Knowhere ——— 4.90
Dream Alliance — 4.88
After Cheltenham I will factor in the ‘days since last tun’ factor and the table should take shape then.
Some other noteables are;
Niche Market — 4.78
Black Apalachi – 4.28
Iris De Balme — 3.73
Big Fella Thanks – 3.60
Tricky Trickster – 0.95 (lay!!)
#256
March 8th, 2010 09:40
Hi Daniel, I see on your table that the Paul Nicholls pair & current favorites score very low. I take it you don’t think it’s very likely either will be winning. Hope you’re right about them because I just don’t seemed to fancy them as well.
#257
March 8th, 2010 10:01
Daniel,
Eric’s Charm 5.10 and Dream Alliance 4.88 will have no more prep runs.
So can we say their max is EC 6.10 and DR 5.88, which includes the +1 for last run with in 49 days of GN.
#258
March 8th, 2010 10:15
Correct Miinnehoma – that would make either of them the lowest winner (RM aside) since Rough Quest in ’96.
Neil – I cant be having ANY 7 year old…its hard enough for an 8 year old to win, and the record of 7 yos is so bad that I just cannot be having them. Plus of course the fact he is PN means he is a stingy price….He can win obviously, as he clearly relishes a trip and has class, but I cant be backing him when so many other 7 year olds have tried and failed in the last 40 odd years.
Re BFT – He has a better chance I think, but as somebody has already pointed out, they went a snail’s pace last year so we cant be confident that his 6th (beaten a decent enough distance when you think how the first 3/4 went away after the final fence) means he will win this year, purely by reason of being 12 months older and a couple of lbs lighter. You’d fancy him to go well and do at least as well as last year, but he’s no ew value at 10s and, as my table shows, doesnt quite have a perfect profile.
#259
March 8th, 2010 11:02
Hello (hello hello) is there anybody in there? Just nod if you can hear me…
#260
March 8th, 2010 11:07
Daniel – thanks for that info.
#261
March 8th, 2010 11:16
Willie Mullins blog is up now, a whole page and..yes team.. you guessed it..not a mention on Arbor.
Well, not a penny of mine going on until he’s confirmed.
#262
March 8th, 2010 11:18
Thanks Showlad.
Personally I think there is little value to be gained on ANY horse now until the bookies go no runner no bet…and certainly no value to be betting before the end of the festival.
The market moves happen now in the 7 days before the race, and on the back of any runs at Cheltenham.
#263
March 8th, 2010 11:21
Daniel,I don’t know if I am anti PN (I hope not) ,but I too can’t fancy his pair. Big Fella has the wrong dosage for a modern winner & Tricky is too young (and pair are poor value).
I think the surprise in your list Ellerslie George is intersting, not mentioned until it appeared in my list. Ran a great race over the weekend but stamina started to give, probably because he was trying to make most of the running.
An interesting result was Coe, don’t think he’ll make the cut but the first three was all Presenting offsprings.
I don’t think a presenting offspring will win if they make all the running, but could if they travel just a bit slower then pour it on at the end.
#264
March 8th, 2010 11:22
Daniel,
Eric’s Charm had 5.10 on your last list 24th. Feb. So does he not gain anything for his win on Saturday.
#265
March 8th, 2010 11:37
Neil – Ellerslie cant be seriously considered for the GN now, in my opinion. He was a long shot before that race and didnt really have that top quality piece of form you could point to.
He jumped right, seemed to struggle with the hike in weights towards the end of the race (even with the jock taking off 7lb) and we cant be sure he will stay – Saturday suggest he probably wouldn’t. Not a betting proposition in my view.
Miinnehoma – in a word, no! He already had enough wins at 24f and beyond, already had enough chase runs and wins, already had a C1 place at more than 24f (saturday was a C2 anyway I believe) and he had already won this season.
Obviously we need to take the points thing with a pinch of salt and look at the scores in context; whilst EC doesnt get anymore points for Saturday, it certainly helps his cause, doesn’t it (although as ive said elsewhere, im not rushing to back him)
#266
March 8th, 2010 11:44
No points for Saturday’s win. I don’t like this game anymore- only joking.
#267
March 8th, 2010 11:48
As I’ve said plenty of times, I dont suggest the points system is bombproof – if it were, I would be rich!! So add what you like to EC’s score for the fact he is clearly in form (2 wins on the spin) and the fact he seems to be well in at the weights now.
That said, worth remembering he is 12 and has only had 3 runs this season (18/20 had more than that)…and of course that he still jumps right handede. Surely AP will go elsewhere as well, which would be detrimental to EC’s chances.
Does anybody have a list of the last 10/20 winners or so and details of whether or not they were ‘well in’ on the day of the GN and if so by how much?
#268
March 8th, 2010 12:14
Daniel I totally agree with your assessment of EG, although he is second though on your system, so got to be respected, no I was thinking of NM and hoping that he’s good enough.
#269
March 8th, 2010 12:41
Daniel all respect to all our GN thoughts.
But I don’t agree re Ellerslie George: SO happy at new home and his 2 poorish Aintree runs have been explained (hated ground and clouted 1 fence very hard in other). Class 1 win in November beating Package, Tother One, Niche, Eric and Beat Boys – so I for one will not be discounting him.
Loves good going which is what he should get – maybe a ‘lil more faith in your table
#270
March 8th, 2010 12:44
Showlad – You dont have to blow smoke up my arse before you disagree with me! Im not going to go off on one (mentioning no names) if you do!
Those things you have said are all valid, but for me, they are overpowered by 1 – his mark since that win and 2 – his lack of a good run in a recognised indicator race.
…..
if he stays second in the table though, I will have to have £2 on Betfair though!!! Couldnt live with myself otherwise!!
How’s that for a cop out!
#271
March 8th, 2010 13:07
I should also point out that, depending which way you cut it, EG could have a perfect score really.
16/20 winners (and 7/10) had placed in a C1 chase at beyond 26f
Comply or Die and Seagram were at 25f…Montys Pass 24f and RM 20f.
Now the question is, where is the cut off?
Is it at anything beyond an extended 3 miles (i.e.25f) which would include EG’s run at 26f?
Or do we say it has to be over 3 and a half miles or so, which means the cut off is 27f…
Only 3 of the last 20 had their C1 chase place at 27f, so 13/20 were at 29f (Irish National distance) or further…FYI.
#272
March 8th, 2010 14:01
Showlad, I thought we were going to have 4 polls on who we think going to win the national.
After the weekend thought long and hard about those above 11 stone. Might have the Dessie Hughes pair on day, especially if the a special bet covering both, but for now I’ll stick with my system.
Okay to recap my first poll ( the pre new year one) had
Niche Market receiving 6 points,
Dream Alliance receiving 5 points,
Gone To Lunch receiving 4 points,
Black Apalachi receiving 3 points,
Hello Bud receiving 2 points,
My Will receiving 1 point.
This was based on the recognized trial races before Christmas and what the race readers of the RP , (or myself ) , thought would improve.
My next list came after the weights were published and was thus,
Iris De Balme receiving 6 points,
State Of Play receiving 5 points,
Arbor Supreme receiving 4 points,
Ellerlie George receiving 3 points,
Mr Pointment receiving 2 points,
Madison Du Berlais receiving 1 point.
This new list was based on Dosage,plus who had shown winning form at 3 miles.
Well I think despite this weekend results I am homing in on the winner. If I’ve not picked it before.
#273
March 8th, 2010 14:04
You’ve got 12 names up there Neil, I would hope you do have the winner!!!
It’s been that sort of year though hasn’t it – ive changed my mind so many times already, im not kidding myself thinking that I have it sorted out now.
I can’t recall who I had at number one on my first list…it may have been Hello Bud, and funnily enough, I think I am coming back to him more and more now as time goes on.
#274
March 8th, 2010 14:19
Hi Neil and all.
Yes 4 stages of Top 6 Tipster League this year: At entries; at weights; post chelts and at 5 day dec.
However it had been requested for a pre-chelts too, so this opened at weekend. It will close this Friday at midnight and I will post up anlaysis at the wekend. So 5 stages now with this new pre -chelts request.
Table with Silver Birhc; Miinehoma and pable votes is as thus:
11 – Snowy Morning
10 – Dream Alliance
07 – Arbor Supreme
06 – Ballyfitz
04 – Niche Market
04 – Big Fella Thanks
04 – Eric’s Charm
03 – Hello Bud
03 – Mon Mome
02 – Maljimar
02 – Cane Brake
01 – War Of Attriton
C’mon then ya’ll get voting
#275
March 8th, 2010 14:21
Daniel defo Hello for me is the ONLY totally consistent thread I keep returning too.
If he can get in on his CRACKER of a weight it will incredible.
#276
March 8th, 2010 14:26
After much thought, will go with the following;
Snowy Morning – 6pts
Hello Bud – 5pts
then in reality a big gap to
War of Attrition – 4 pts
Big Fella Thanks – 3 pts
Arbor Supreme – 2 pts
Cane Brake – 1 pt (would be higher if I thought he was going to have a prep run)
Making the table;
Snowy Morning — 17
Dream Alliance — 10
Arbor Supreme — 9
Hello Bud ——- 8
Big Fella Thanks -7
Ballyiftz ——- 6
War of Attrition – 5
Niche Market —– 4
Eric’s Charm —– 4
Mon Mome ——— 3
Cane Brake ——- 3
Maljimar ——— 2
#277
March 8th, 2010 14:27
He’ll get in Showlad…im sure of it.
#278
March 8th, 2010 14:28
arggh!! I spent ages putting all the ‘dashes’ in so that the numbers lined up, as on the old version of this blog, that was the only way to do it….
grrrr!
#279
March 8th, 2010 14:35
6 pts character building
5 pts hello bud
4 pts snowy morning
3 pts state of play
2 pts big fella thanks
1 pts erics charm
showaddy waddy please can you put on list for me i a’nt got a glue how to glue and stitch or what ever you have to do, cheers pal.
#280
March 8th, 2010 14:40
Snowy Morning 21
Hello Bud 13
Dream Alliance 10
Arbor Supreme 9
Big Fella Thanks 9
Ballyiftz 6
Character Building 6
War of Attrition 5
Eric’s Charm 5
Niche Market 4
State of Play 3
Mon Mome 3
Cane Brake 3
Maljimar 2
There you go
#281
March 8th, 2010 14:50
thanks dano much appreciated
#282
March 8th, 2010 15:00
Sorted out my six the only dilemma is what order to put them in. Here goes:
Top marks have to go to Arbor Supreme, I liken him to Pegasus the mythical flying horse when he came late on the scene in his last race. So he gets 6 points.
State Of Play gets the next vote, because he ran in this season. Although he was pulled up in Hennessy, it is possible to run a shocker in the Hennessy yet still win the national Corbiere did it in his national. State Of Play also runs well when fresh, maybe the 50 day rule will be the next trend to fall. He gets 5 points.
Comply Or Die comes next, have to say Mon Mome hurdle race was more impressive than Comply Or Die, but COD using RPR has ran in 2 nationals now and very consistent so could he become the first dual winner since Reynoldstown (Red Rum being a triple winner). So I award 4 points to him.
My next selection like EG might surprise you and he hasn’t done anything to appear on anybody’s radar. Like Mon Mome he just below it and if I’d not studied my trends closely could have missed him.He ran against Eric’s Charm in the London national and in a hurdle race at start of his season. I am receding to Irish Raptor. Once fancied by some for Scottish national on here, I think NTD pulled him out and let HB win. He gets the 3 points.
The 2 points goes to a horse I fancied last year after running a blinder at the festival, and is Character Building.
The final point goes to a natural and in my opinion jumps the Fences better than Rummie. The only snag is he wants fast going. Mr Pointment gets the vote. Could the Wilsons have a fabulous day out by having the national winner, if the going is fast then probably.
Right then all I need to do is update the table,last seen on Pablo’s thread.
13 Arbor Supreme
6 Ballyfitz
5 Dream Alliance
5 State Of Play
4 Big Fella Thanks
4 Comply Or Die
4 Niche Market
3 Hello Bud
3 Irish Raptor
3 Mon Mome
2 Cane Brake
2 Character Building
2 Maljimar
1Mr Pointment
1 War Of Attrition
I think that’s correct.
Pablo just being curious but how do you rate your namesake?
#283
March 8th, 2010 15:09
Don’t know where you got the barking points table Neil, lol, but here is the updated table after your scores:
Snowy Morning 21
Arbor Supreme 15
Hello Bud 13
Dream Alliance 10
Big Fella Thanks 9
State of Play 8
Character Building 8
Ballyiftz 6
War of Attrition 5
Eric’s Charm 5
Niche Market 4
Comply or Die 4
Irish Raptor 3
Mon Mome 3
Cane Brake 3
Maljimar 2
Mr Pointment 1
#284
March 8th, 2010 15:12
Not sure where you get your running total Neil S but my top 6 are as follows:
Snowy Morning
Character Building
Black Apalachi
War of Attrition
Niche Market
Arbor Supreme
#285
March 8th, 2010 15:15
Making it;
Snowy Morning 27
Arbor Supreme 16
Hello Bud 13
Character Building 13
Dream Alliance 10
Big Fella Thanks 9
War of Attrition 8
State of Play 8
Ballyiftz 6
Niche Market 6
Eric’s Charm 5
Black Apalachi 4
Comply or Die 4
Irish Raptor 3
Mon Mome 3
Cane Brake 3
Maljimar 2
Mr Pointment 1
#286
March 8th, 2010 15:16
Guys can we update master table pls
Updated after Whitearab’s:
Snowy Morning 27
Arbor Supreme 16
Hello Bud 13
Character Building 13
Dream Alliance 10
Big Fella Thanks 9
State of Play 8
War of Attrition 8
Ballyiftz 6
Niche Market 6
Eric’s Charm 5
Black Apalachi 4
Comply or Die 4
Irish Raptor 3
Mon Mome 3
Cane Brake 3
Maljimar 2
Mr Pointment 1
#287
March 8th, 2010 15:16
Thanks showlad, took so long in putting my opinion down into type that someone sneaked in and put theirs poll ahead of mine. That poll would have been correct if Pablo’s vote was the last one before mine.
Anyway I hope I put a few in there to make you ponder.
#288
March 8th, 2010 15:17
Lol Daniel. You should have followed that update with your classic ‘there you go’ lol.
Hope our paths cross at some meet Daniel, we definitely share the same sense of humour, lol.
#289
March 8th, 2010 15:19
Thanks guys. I wasn’t being lazy but rather did not want to overly complicate the running scores list!
#290
March 8th, 2010 15:20
Yes for sure Neil.
Good fun on site today following a rather ‘heavy load’ with some strange runs at the weekend.
I’m finding the Arbor Q a bit of a pain in the t*** to be honest. We should be lauding his last run and our collective fancy of him, instead we are totally in the dark re Mullins intentions.
Gold Star to whoeever gets an up to date on Arbor.
#291
March 8th, 2010 15:37
Daniel on post #273 you said I’ve got 12 horses on my list. I have 13 horses actually, because at the start I mentioned Dessie Hughes pair. Been on the other site and their opinion is they to be respected but a bit high in the weights. I totally agree with that, as do (I bet) most on here.
The extra horse is Vic Venturi.
#292
March 8th, 2010 15:58
Showlad like you i am also fed up with the arbor saga as i am holding fire on an ante-post bet and it leaves me a bit up in the air with my final selections.
However i just might have some news maybe today or tomorrow, if i do i will post as soon as.
#293
March 8th, 2010 16:01
thanks for the update DE!
forgive me, its still a bit of a mystery to me, but I have a question,
6.35+ winning score 13/14
which (and can) horses achieve this through winning/ placing in C1?
running also being a point from now on right?
eg. Ballyfitz world? hurdle- win (or place?)for + running at all, would give him near perfect score right!?
#294
March 8th, 2010 16:12
O you ‘lil Puzzler – great if you do and make sure it’s in stone and not a whisper
Neil what other site?
#295
March 8th, 2010 16:40
The thieving racing forum.
#296
March 8th, 2010 17:54
Really struggling for a stand-out, but my current top6 – cant believe how much its changing!! 3 have been there throughout though
6pts Arbor Supreme
5pts Ollie Magern
4pts Hello Bud
3pts Irish Raptor
2pts Snowy Morning
1pt Gone To Lunch
Not going to completely give upon GTL, until i’ve seen his final prep. Both OM and SM been given a fair chance by the handicapper. has to be question marks over IR staying power, but if he’s going to stay anywhere it will be on good ground over the aintree fences. Would be very surprised now if AS doesnt go to Aintree after such a promising run. great run from EC at the weekend, he would fill the 7th spot on my list, but i am afraid he is another of those horses that is just so much better with the champ on board
Snowy Morning 29
Arbor Supreme 22
Hello Bud 17
Character Building 13
Dream Alliance 10
Big Fella Thanks 9
State of Play 8
War of Attrition 8
Ballyiftz 6
Niche Market 6
Irish Raptor 6
Eric’s Charm 5
Ollie Magern 5
Black Apalachi 4
Comply or Die 4
Mon Mome 3
Cane Brake 3
Maljimar 2
Gone To Lunch 1
Mr Pointment 1
Bit of Cheltenham news flying around today. Choc very much fancying his chances on the Tuesday with Bensalem and Medermit, but hasnt really mentioned Somersby. The one he really likes is his bumper ride who he has said will be very hard to beat
#297
March 8th, 2010 18:19
Who’s he riding in the bumper – didn’t think he’d ridden any of them before or has he?
#298
March 8th, 2010 18:22
Drumbaloo – very well fancied, should stay a decent price on the day with it not being with one of the major trainers
#299
March 8th, 2010 18:33
That’s interesting – like his chances – horse he beat isn’t running and always like a horse that wins a close battle – they won’t always be as good as last year’s good thing Dunguib
Just to link to GN – he’s by KJC’s dad and damsire is AS’s dad
Although I think Admin would prefer it if Cheltenham discussion was at:
http://blog.cheltenham-betting.co.uk/
#300
March 8th, 2010 18:46
yeah, bumper is one race i don’t know much about with most of the winners coming from ireland but to hear it pretty much from the main man along with all the irish talking it up during recent weeks means he must have a great chance
#301
March 8th, 2010 19:23
so many horses mentioned in this thread and there is a case for most ,but when push comes to shove are we all just not looking for a niche market ?? lol time for instincts to kick in i think !! go with the force luke go with the force !!
#302
March 8th, 2010 19:41
6pts Backstage
5pts Arbor Supreme
4pts Snowy Morning
3pts War of Attrition
2pts Maljimar
1pt Razor Royale
Running totals:
Snowy Morning 33
Arbor Supreme 27
Hello Bud 17
Character Building 13
Dream Alliance 10
Big Fella Thanks 9
War of Attrition 9
State of Play 8
Backstage 6
Ballyiftz 6
Niche Market 6
Irish Raptor 6
Eric’s Charm 5
Ollie Magern 5
Black Apalachi 4
Comply or Die 4
Maljimar 4
Mon Mome 3
Cane Brake 3
Gone To Lunch 1
Mr Pointment 1
Razor Royale 1
#303
March 8th, 2010 19:42
6pts Big Fella Thanks
5pts Snowy Morning
4pts State of Play
3pts Hello Bud
2pts Character Building
1pt Cane Brake
———————
Snowy Morning 34
Arbor Supreme 22
Hello Bud 20
Big Fella Thanks 15
Character Building 15
State of Play 12
Dream Alliance 10
War of Attrition 8
Ballyiftz 6
Niche Market 6
Irish Raptor 6
Eric’s Charm 5
Ollie Magern 5
Black Apalachi 4
Comply or Die 4
Cane Brake 4
Mon Mome 3
Maljimar 2
Gone To Lunch 1
Mr Pointment 1
#304
March 8th, 2010 19:46
Ah had to amend after almost simultaneous posts with Seagull
Running totals:
Snowy Morning 38
Arbor Supreme 27
Hello Bud 20
Big Fella Thanks 15
Character Building 15
State of Play 12
Dream Alliance 10
War of Attrition 9
Backstage 6
Ballyiftz 6
Niche Market 6
Irish Raptor 6
Eric’s Charm 5
Ollie Magern 5
Black Apalachi 4
Comply or Die 4
Maljimar 4
Cane Brake 4
Mon Mome 3
Gone To Lunch 1
Mr Pointment 1
Razor Royale 1
#305
March 8th, 2010 20:13
It’s quiet on the cheltenham festival blog. Just posted some tips which could give you a beneficial cheltenham.
TC it’s interesting you mention Drumbaloo for the bumper because reading Nick in my Weekender he says that top racing post ratings do well in it. Currently the are 4 in there Araucaria, Ballyburke, Don’t Turn Back & Drumbaloo. The first & last named have raced more than twice and are more likely to win.
For my other choices see the blog, I think Pablo has provided a link (good job too, I am no good with links).
#306
March 8th, 2010 20:33
Can’t find your tips Neil
Pretty sure that Araucaria & Ballyburke are not entered for the Bumper (38 entries in RP)
#307
March 8th, 2010 21:01
Mines changed a lot too!
6 Snowy Morning
5 Arbor Supreme
4 War of Attrition
3 Character Building
2 Maljimar
1 Ballyfitz
Snowy Morning 44
Arbor Supreme 32
Hello Bud 20
Character Building 18
Big Fella Thanks 15
War of Attrition 13
State of Play 12
Dream Alliance 10
Ballyfitz 7
Backstage 6
Niche Market 6
Irish Raptor 6
Maljimar 6
Eric’s Charm 5
Ollie Magern 5
Black Apalachi 4
Comply or Die 4
Cane Brake 4
Mon Mome 3
Gone To Lunch 1
Mr Pointment 1
Razor Royale 1
#308
March 8th, 2010 21:19
Pablo yes they were originally but must have been taken out at some stage. Banker of meeting then is Drumbaloo in the bumper. My comments are waiting approval what’s going on Admin my last comment are up there. Maybe my last comment were under my old E-mail address.
Will recap the tips I’ve picked up and let you decide which to do.
On the first day in the Supreme Novice Hurdle the tips are for Bellvano, Blackmountain & Dunguib.
In the Arkle it’s Osana, Long Run & Sizing Europe.
On day two in the Neptune novice hurdle the tips are for Manyriverstocross, Rite Of Passage, Summit Meeting, The Betchworth Kid & The Hurl.
In the RSA it’s between Bensalem, Burton Port, Diamond Harry, Punchestown & Weapon’s Amnesty. Sure I read about Punchestown being out for season.
The bumper I’ve covers.
#309
March 8th, 2010 22:30
Really would like to see a run from Casey Jones before Aintree. Entered in Gold Cup (I think) but can’t see him running. A bit put off by the fact he has been a non-runner in last two races (travel sickness & off his feed).
#310
March 8th, 2010 22:31
Burton Port far far too big pricewise, given we have the front two in the market as Punchestowns (injured and only 2 chase runs) and Long Run (jumping mistakes + only a 5yo)
Defo my ew selection at the moment in the Arkle.
Punchestowns wasnt out for season, but his involvement is 50-50, which doesnt bode well, even he is does line up, as his prep will have been severely disrupted/
#311
March 8th, 2010 22:31
Sorry, meant RSA, not Arkle of course.
#312
March 8th, 2010 23:15
Speedy I suppose a good outing from Casey Jones would be right on track, sorry about the pun.
Danny the are no guarantees especially at cheltenham, but hope some of the suggestions put forward can run big races and if price is big enough give you a rewarding festival.
Had a good festival last year using the pacepot selections of the racing post on the first day. You know the pie chart in the paper picking up £48 for £5 , then on the Thursday picking up £400+ using sporting life’s placepot tips.
I think Cheltenham as always been lucky for me as a meeting.
#313
March 8th, 2010 23:22
Ps. If you’re too young speedy the pun with Casey Jones is that they used to be a tv series called Casey Jones about a steam engine driver in the wild west.
“I didn’t get were I am today without knowing my tv series.”
Another reference to CJ in another tv series. Reggie Perrin.
#314
March 8th, 2010 23:45
I hadn’t heard of the TV show Neil but have just googled it! Although I had heard of the song Ballad of Casey Jones which apparently was used in that series
#315
March 8th, 2010 23:59
I’ve just been reading up on Drumbaloo; wouldn’t normally have a bet on the Bumper but may take a chance with that one. Also going to check out Restless Harry, but not sure what race he’s in. Going back to National, sorry I’ve not taken part in the ‘top fancies’ stuff but, having had 16 bets already I’m confusing myself and change my mind every five minutes [although Snowy has been there right from day one].
#316
March 9th, 2010 00:11
Maureen, just an idea and you don’t have to put anything down. How’s about putting your best six from your bets if you don’t want to be muddle up.
Speedy I think you can U tube it too. Of course myself and crisp remember it first hand (see earlier blogs).
#317
March 9th, 2010 00:48
Hey Crisp, I’ve re-read your post on Razor Royale. It kinda got overlooked because of the dust-up with Pablo. OK he doesn’t fit the 30/30 stat but he is one of the few that fit my study in to TS/dosage and maybe the only one under 11 stone thats “well in” and proven. With the race favouring younger types maybe an 8 year old will get up again this year.
My top 6
Ballyfitz 6
Cane Brake 5
Razor Royale 4
Snowy 3
King Johns 2
GTL 1
Updated
Snowy Morning 47
Arbor Supreme 32
Hello Bud 20
Character Building 18
Big Fella Thanks 15
War of Attrition 13
Ballyfitz 13
State of Play 12
Dream Alliance 10
Cane Brake 9
Backstage 6
Niche Market 6
Irish Raptor 6
Maljimar 6
Eric’s Charm 5
Ollie Magern 5
Razor Royale 5
Black Apalachi 4
Comply or Die 4
Mon Mome 3
Gone To Lunch 2
King Johns Castle 2
Mr Pointment 1
#318
March 9th, 2010 05:29
Top 10 on list – prep runs/mileage
47-Snowy Morning—83223-/-102F.
32-Arbor Supreme—7U2-/-69F.
20-Hello Bud—735U8-/-136F.
18-Character Building—0-/-20F.
15-Big Fella Thanks—2U1-/-65F.
13-War of Attrition—230411-/-140F.
13-Ballyfitz—4P154-/-128F.
12-State of Play—P-/-27F.
10-Dream Alliance—21P-/-82F.
09-Cane Brake—635P-/-93F.
Daniel,
Have you a score for Razor Royale.
#319
March 9th, 2010 07:51
For what it is worth at this stage (I still have no confidence!) my top 6.
Beat The Boys 6
Hello Bud 5
Big Fella Thanks 4
State Of Play 3
Arbor Supreme 2
Snowy Morning 1
Updated
Snowy Morning 48
Arbor Supreme 34
Hello Bud 25
Big Fella Thanks 19
Character Building 18
State of Play 15
War of Attrition 13
Ballyfitz 13
Dream Alliance 10
Cane Brake 9
Backstage 6
Beat The Boys 6
Niche Market 6
Irish Raptor 6
Maljimar 6
Eric’s Charm 5
Ollie Magern 5
Razor Royale 5
Black Apalachi 4
Comply or Die 4
Mon Mome 3
Gone To Lunch 2
King Johns Castle 2
Mr Pointment 1
#320
March 9th, 2010 08:22
Miinnhoma – good job you asked about Razro Royale. Much to my embarrasment, I forgot to update his score after his run last weekend.
That RP win took him from 2.45 points, to 5.50, which puts him joiny 7th with Cane Brake on the table!!
Sorry!
#321
March 9th, 2010 11:12
bottom 6 in the GN…i mean top 6!(i dream)
hello bud 6pts
arbor supreme 5pts
snowy morning 4pts
eric’s charm 3pts
beat the boys 2pts
parsons pistol 1pt
snowy morning 52
arbor supreme 39
hello bud 31
big fella thanks 19
character building 18
state of play 15
war of attrition 13
ballyfitz 13
dream alliance 10
cane brake 9
beat the boys 8
eric’s charm 8
backstage 6
niche market 6
irish raptor 6
maljimar 6
ollie magern 5
razor royale 5
black appalachi 4
comply or die 4
mon mome 3
gone to lunch 2
king john’s castle 2
mr pointment 1
parsons pistol 1
#322
March 9th, 2010 15:36
All quiet on the Western Front today!!
#323
March 9th, 2010 15:40
iris de balm trainer s.curran states nothing shown up at all with vet tests and scope after bad run.as he says that is worrying as no excuse can be made.not ruled out of national yet however.
#324
March 9th, 2010 15:40
Confused after the weekend runs!!
#325
March 9th, 2010 15:48
So many bad runs, and a few others with no runs for a while, so are they fit?? I just seem to get more questions!! LOL
#326
March 9th, 2010 16:03
I think its a case of ‘Keep it simple stupid!’
Snowy Morning
Hello Bud
War of Attrition (if he isnt overworked at Chelt)
Everything else is behind those in my view and have more serious question marks than those three.
IDB – shocking run last time
Arbor Supreme – will he even run
GTL – Self explanatory
Tricky Trickster – a anti-stats horse if ever there was one!
Black Apalachi, VV, Niche Market, Dream Alliance – too much weight.
State of Play – No run for 150 days or so! (this is a stat that seems to come up in so many big races – both on flat and over jumps – that I am loathe to ignore it)
#327
March 9th, 2010 16:08
Nice one Daniel.
GN Initial Weights 2008/2010
Snowy Morning–10.12/10.13 +1
Dream Alliance-11.01/11.03 +2
Mon Mome ——10.08/11.07 +13
Comply Or Die–10.06/11.05 +13
Cloudy Lane—-10.08/11.03 +9
Madison Du Ber-11.06/11.10 +4
Joe Lively—–11.04/11.06 +2
King J.Castle–10.08/10.09 +1
Black Apalachi-10.05/11.06 +15
Character Buil-10.05/10.11 +6
Eric’s Charm—10.01/10.09 +8
Ollie Magern—11.08/10.09 -13
Mr Pointment—11.08/10.07 -15
Knowhere——-11.08/10.04 -18
#328
March 9th, 2010 16:20
…which is why I am SO annoyed that Mr P hasn’t had a proper prep. I remain absolutely convinced he could have won this if he had.
#329
March 9th, 2010 16:48
WILSONS WILSONS WILSONS lol.
#330
March 9th, 2010 17:57
completely agree about Mr P, really fancied him for the national this year, until i found out where he ended up. Having said that stats can’t last forever and if they are to be broken it should be by an Aintree specialist. Cerium did extremely well to finish 5th after just one prep last year, so it wouldnt be a surprise to me at all if Mr P was to win the national.
not much support for Ollie Magern on here, was unlucky when hampered last year, perfect stats horse other than the fact he hasnt won for a while, but went so so close in the charlie hall this season. Now off his lowest ever mark, obvious question marks over whether his still keeps his ability, but am expecting a decent run from him in the willhill
#331
March 9th, 2010 19:50
Ollie Magern is one of the dark horses isn’t he…and didnt somebody say we were due a 12 year old winner this year??!
I think one of the others that has flown under the radar is Character Building – A place at the festival and he would meet the stats, and score above 6.00 on my points system.
#332
March 9th, 2010 20:01
Ollie Magern better in smaller fields generally and can’t see him staying the trip at all
#333
March 9th, 2010 20:09
Doesn’t Character Building have to win a class 1 race? WHill @ Chelts would do though…
… suffering from the poor trials like many others on here. GTL, EG and IdB anti-posts gone down the drain.
#334
March 9th, 2010 20:13
Apologies, my top 6 was incorrect as I forgot to put the mighty Casey Jones in. Running totals all up to date below
6pts Backstage
5pts Arbor Supreme
4pts Snowy Morning
3pts Casey Jones
2pts Maljimar
1pt Razor Royale
snowy morning 52
arbor supreme 39
hello bud 31
big fella thanks 19
character building 18
state of play 15
ballyfitz 13
war of attrition 12
dream alliance 10
cane brake 9
beat the boys 8
eric’s charm 8
backstage 6
niche market 6
irish raptor 6
maljimar 5
ollie magern 5
razor royale 4
black appalachi 4
comply or die 4
casey jones 3
mon mome 3
gone to lunch 2
king john’s castle 2
mr pointment 1
parsons pistol 1
#335
March 9th, 2010 20:16
mucked that up again. The running totals are correct but WOA is my 2 pointer, maljimar is 1 pointer and razor royale falls off the list
#336
March 9th, 2010 20:38
Totally confused Speedy. Can you please amend the table as it should be thanks
#337
March 9th, 2010 20:53
To clarify Speedy re-present your Top 6 (once you are certain and happy with it lol) and then amend running table.
Still not a sosij re Arbor, I just can’t believe he doesn’t even get a mention after that great run and if he has can someone pls find it lol.
#338
March 9th, 2010 21:19
Why is war of attrition only minus one point speedyseagull when in your original list you awarded it three.
#339
March 9th, 2010 21:31
Showlad – think because it’s Cheltenham next week that everything quiet on AS and virtually every other GN runner that didn’t run last weekend – once Cheltenham is over I’m sure we’ll hear something either way
Concerned about the form of the Taaffe stable – it’s been dreadful for a long time now compared to previous years so not looking good for Cane Brake – have to see how his trainer’s runners get on at Cheltenham next week
#340
March 9th, 2010 21:36
The last running totals were correct, but will post again to avoid any confusion
6pts Backstage
5pts Aebor Supreme
4pts Snowy Morning
3pts Casey Jones
2pts War of Attrition
1pt Maljimar
snowy morning 52
arbor supreme 39
hello bud 31
big fella thanks 19
character building 18
state of play 15
ballyfitz 13
war of attrition 12
dream alliance 10
cane brake 9
beat the boys 8
eric’s charm 8
backstage 6
niche market 6
irish raptor 6
maljimar 5
ollie magern 5
razor royale 4
black appalachi 4
comply or die 4
casey jones 3
mon mome 3
gone to lunch 2
king john’s castle 2
mr pointment 1
parsons pistol 1
#341
March 9th, 2010 21:56
Character Building has always got to be top of my list, but until I see him run at Cheltenham it’s impossible to be certain of a big run in the National.Same with Beat the Boys and Ballyfitz. Backed Maljimar today, having been so impressed with his jumping at Cheltenham last year, and hoping that he a] gets in the race and b] doesn’t boil over in the preliminaries. Was asking at Corals today if I got my money back on horses that don’t get into the race that I’ve backed ante post. I know that if they’re withdrawn I don’t get anything back.They didn’t seem to know.
#342
March 9th, 2010 22:13
maureen i work for corals and you grt your money back if they are balloted out
#343
March 9th, 2010 22:25
Maureen until they offer non runner money back, you likely to lose your stake if your horse doesn’t run. The only exception is if your horse was one of the four reserves and doesn’t get the chance to run.
This is what happened to me in 2008.
#344
March 9th, 2010 22:56
Yes, that makes more sense. Maljimar and Hello Bud may be end up that category, but even then it could be only for nrnb horses? Always worth asking, I suppose.
#345
March 9th, 2010 23:13
Thanks Speedy.
Pablo thought as much re just now quiet for Chelts. But within a day or two after his good run I fully expected a comment inc an indication re his GN intentions for Arbor. Anyhoo we’ll have to wait.
#346
March 10th, 2010 02:46
For what it’s worth!
6pts Snowy Morning
5pts black appalachi
4pts state of play
3pts eric’s charm
2pts niche market
1pt ellerslie george
snowy morning 58
arbor supreme 39
hello bud 31
big fella thanks 19
state of play 19
character building 18
ballyfitz 13
war of attrition 12
eric’s charm 11
dream alliance 10
black appalachi 9
cane brake 9
beat the boys 8
niche market 8
backstage 6
irish raptor 6
maljimar 5
ollie magern 5
razor royale 4
comply or die 4
casey jones 3
mon mome 3
gone to lunch 2
king john’s castle 2
mr pointment 1
parsons pistol 1
ellerslie george 1
#347
March 10th, 2010 04:23
Pipe wise -
David announced this morning that Madison du Berlais will by-pass his engagements at the Cheltenham Festival and instead go straight to Aintree.
He is absolutely fine, but rather than head to Cheltenham he will instead be kept for Aintree where he could aim to defend his title in the Betfair Bowl, or run in the Grand National itself. 8th Mar ’10
#348
March 10th, 2010 06:03
Maureen forgot to add that you’re probably get your money back also if its another false race like 1993. However we don’t want that.
#349
March 10th, 2010 07:53
Eric’s Charm 12yrs. V Rambling Minster 11yrs.
Two improving older horses with same GN OR143 and same new OR149. Both won their last 2 chase prep runs. Both won their last prep on OR143 – RM won a CI and EC won a C2.
Using old and new stats -
Rambling Minster – 56511 = 134f. – pass
3x24f.(1x28f.) – pass
15 chases – won 5 = 33% – pass
Top 3 C1 (won last race-C1) – pass
Runs @24+ chase&hurdle 5-22-7 – pass
Won @25,@26,@27,@28 and @32f. – pass
Chase Hcap stat 12chases – 4 wins – pass
Won 1 of last 10 chases by 1st. Jan. – pass
Won 1 of last 10 chases by GN day. – pass
Best OR-GNOR = -6 – pass
Last chase win OR-GNOR = 0 – pass
RPR-GNOR = -12 (I think) – pass
RPR left-handed 155 pass
Best ever RPR that season (last 8 chases)- pass
So what did he fail -
No top 3 C1 by 30th.April (yr.before) – fail
No top 3 C1 by 31st.Dec. – fail
Place(1/2/3) Strike Rates – Chase and Life Runs-
CP S/R by 30th.April 10/4 = 40%(47%+) – fail
LP S/R by 30th.April 27/11 = 41% (47%+) – fail
CP S/R by 31st.Dec. 13/4 = 31% (45%+) – fail
LP S/R by 31st.Dec. 30/11 = 37% (42%min.18/19 -48%+) – fail
Cp S/R on GN day 15/6 = 40% (42%min.18/19 46%+) – fail
LP S/R on GN day 32/13 = 41% (42%min.18/19 46%+) – fail.
Eric’s Charm – 011 = 83f. ? pass/fail
Passes everything but has one slight fault – no C1 chase win but has a top 2 C1 place in Betfred G.C. @30f. ’06.
Has new OR149(GNOR143) and now a Left-handed RPR153. Which is a best ever RPR for him.
I think he has a better chance on paper than Rambo, especially if the weights rise by 3Lbs., as long as he didn’t buy his steering column in Japan.
#350
March 10th, 2010 10:12
Skippers Brig out of the William Hill Trophy and out for the season!
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/cheltenham-william-hill-trophy-hcp-ch-n-g-richards-setback-rules-skippers-brig-out-of-william-hill-trophy/689999/latest/
BLAST!!
Back to the drawing board on that race
#351
March 10th, 2010 10:44
thanks for that daniel, quite fancied that.
#352
March 10th, 2010 10:51
Shame that there isn’t something with a similar form line…Jayo does, but I dont think he wants 3 miles.
#353
March 10th, 2010 11:09
what about chief dan george!
#354
March 10th, 2010 11:14
Andy – He is defo high on my shortlist.
#355
March 10th, 2010 11:39
One of my favourite horses, The Chief! Backed himat Cheltenham a couple of years ago when he [I think] pulled am muscle during the race. He then ran at Aintree and I had to work late so didn’t get to back him, and the rest is history.
#356
March 10th, 2010 11:48
so many fancies down to run in different races makes it hard for anti-post.think i’ll wait till weekend.
#357
March 10th, 2010 12:12
Ansolute nothing to be gained from antepost betting at this stage – you wont get a big juicy price and we dont even have the decs yet.
Antepost
Antepost
Antepost
Antepost
Antepost
#358
March 10th, 2010 12:17
Absolute
Absolute
Absolute
only joking!
#359
March 10th, 2010 12:17
Maureen, reading your response to my answer about getting your money back if your horse doesn’t run.
The proper rules of Ante Post is all in run or not, unless they are balloted out. That is they to remain declared for the race up to the off.
The four reserves are the only horses in the national to do this. Any below these are usually pulled out
#360
March 10th, 2010 12:24
touchee andy!!
#361
March 10th, 2010 12:34
said only joking mate!
#362
March 10th, 2010 12:38
Ante post betting does have its advantages too. This wouldn’t effect the national but you also get the place terms at the time.
Let me give you an example. I backed the third horse in User Friendly’s oaks, Ante Post. At the time of the bet being struck the was eight horses declared and it was 100/1. On the day the was seven horses and my horse was 33/1, because I placed my bet Ante post I got paid out on the third when those who backed it on the day wouldn’t.
#363
March 10th, 2010 12:49
touchee….not touchy!
#364
March 10th, 2010 13:53
Hello Bud out of William Hill, so going straight to Aintee now I would think.
Character Building remains in, as do Our Vic, Beat The Boys and Niche Market.
The leading fancies stay in as well, as do Palypso De Creek and ‘The Chief’!
#365
March 10th, 2010 14:01
Daniel post 255 Maach 8th.
Many thanks – only just seen as my home computer is waiting a new battery (it wont work for some reason without a battery that will charge) – now working back in the library. List looks good. Will be backing your best selctions after Cheltenham come what may (I have most already). Sorry people but until my cumpter is fixed i will not be able to post much – time for that review though!
#366
March 10th, 2010 14:30
Systemsman – Not sure if you picked up on the fact that Razor Royale should have a score of 5.50 too.
#367
March 10th, 2010 14:42
hey daniel, did you see my post a few days ago, a question for you about your system in the run up to the big day with ballyfitz as example!?
even if he can’t bloody jump!
post #293, took me 10mins to find that, kinda makes sense…
what I’m driving at is the cheltenham or post cheltenham factor, whether you can get points for place and -points for poor run. Please use Ballyfitz example as highish on your system and a few of us can’t shake this one
#368
March 10th, 2010 14:43
Nothing wrong with ante posts if you have a singles and doubles on Dunguib and Big Bucks both at 7/2! I did have Mille Cheif at 14/1 too mind!
#369
March 10th, 2010 14:44
Will post my top 6 by Saturday evening – I hope. Giving its lots of time.
#370
March 10th, 2010 14:59
Hello Bud is still in the Kim Muir.
#371
March 10th, 2010 15:23
Whiterab – im not knocking antepost – just pointing out that there are times when it is doesnt make sense!
And we all know you lose more antepost when you win.
Would love to know where you got 7/2 about BB given that I am sure he was 6/4 after last years race!
As for Dunguib, at even money, he is the lay of the meeting. Do you want him running for you at evens, or the rest of the field at the same price?!
I know which i’d choose…everytime!
#372
March 10th, 2010 15:24
Sorry KJ – read your post and meant to make a point to do the maths and respond.
Will do it now
#373
March 10th, 2010 15:26
Thanks for the correction Miinnehoma
#374
March 10th, 2010 15:30
Can you believe the changes in some of the OR’s.
Gone To Lunch down to OR140
Hello Bud OR137
Trabolgan OR131
Eric’s Charm up to OR149
#375
March 10th, 2010 15:32
BALLYFITZ would go to 6.08 with a place in a C1 CHASE over 27f or further at the festival.
A win would be ideal though, as he only has 2 chase runs at the moment – if he were to get this, his score would be 7.08 (almost perfect)
If the C1 chase place was over 24f-26f, his score would be 5.58. If it was a win, 6.58.
A world hurdle run wouldn’t improve his score.
Can’t Buy Time and Ballyholland are two others that would shoot up the rankings with a C1 chase place at the festival, although both would still be below the 6 point threshold.
In essence though the top 10 or so would remain largely the same.
#376
March 10th, 2010 15:39
Oh, and Palypso De Creek will run in the Pertemps, not the William Hill Trophy.
grrr!!
Looks like my money will be on CDG.
#377
March 10th, 2010 16:13
thanks DE, virtual pork pie with mustard and a pint for you!
So it would have to be a chase, think he’s entered for 2 hurdles..point for running? c’est ca!
Ballyfitz keeps bulldozering one, more so than Snowy, .. BUT.
I know he is a better hurdler for obvious reasons, but he is a stayer (this also splits opinion) but getting more support in latest list here because of his staying on in good chase company, thats a fact.
Infact the staying part of all the contenders is THE final hurdle!
Think we could all do with a table solely for this really. Dosage table perhaps, ‘relatives’ encampments possibly, definately proof C1 27f/29f+ which indicates not just endurance but keeping up with the pace of good company.
Can’t buy time is interesting to mention, didn’t think his run at weekend a bad run, gotta run much further after all, under the radar and schooled around?
Was wondering what AP will ride, not likely to pick 12yr old Eric, shame, like the comparison with Rambo Miinehomma, poor Eric leave him alone he’s lovely, and lets hope turns left, cross fingers, touch wood, stand on one leg hop and pick your nose! sorry, I’m getting nervous
#378
March 10th, 2010 16:27
no, I’m not adding Can’t buy time, was confusing with Don’t Push It I think, more distance in that.
#379
March 10th, 2010 16:27
This is the beauty of racing – interpretation of form! I am in disagreement to KJ in so much that I do not believe Ballyfitz will stay. He has not shown me anything in the big races that suggests he will stay, and don’t think he has stayed on.
I also am surprised that Irish Raptor has scored points in our table. He is my idea of lay of the day! Having said that, I have Backstage as my 6 pointer and no-one else has him at all, so horses for courses!
#380
March 10th, 2010 16:57
I think Mr.P fans are in a similar position, those who don’t rate his chances, especially now, considering his ‘lay out’ prep, shish!… except for his love of aintree once round and low mark, disagree’rs keepin quiet! all I’ll say is Clan Royal gave twice round a real good go and I backed him and Amberleigh fortunately
but Mr.P I never backed, never impressed me.
Out of the once round the block aintree gang, my preferences would be BA and VV, both scuppered with 11-6 (THANKS FOR KILLING THE BECHER PHIL!) Anyone know if they’ve been getting BA to do his press ups!
#381
March 10th, 2010 17:47
Kj my view on Mr P is that he won’t stay the national in normal conditions, however you’ve got to respect his run behind Black Apalachi, on ground he detests. Almost upsides Black jumping last then cried enough.
I am prepared to have a small wager in case the going is fast on the day. The only dilemma is do I take 150/1 (William hill & ladbrokes ) and just have the four places covered. Or take 66/1 with Paddy Power for 5 places. Decisions decisions!
#382
March 10th, 2010 20:38
so now that gone to lunch has an OR of 140 i guess he is 5LB wrong and would carry 10-6 instead of 10-11….looks even worse for this one now.
Helo bud is also 3LB wrong now on 137 but if he had a rating of 137 some weeks back he would more than likely not even get into the race so for his followers it’s not such a bad thing…but in saying that his place is not assured he needs another 21 to come out above him.
And Erics charm will go into the national on 149 6LB, well in and on his highest ever rating and all this at the age of 12!!! could he possibly be improving at this age?
Arbor supreme has gone up to 145 from 142.
Big fella Thanks has gone up to 151 from 146, there is no doubt about it this horse really must have a serious chance, but as a betting proposition all the value has gone from his price, if 12′s are seen again it must be worth a saver.
After his poor run Possol has been dropped 4LB.
Ellerslie george is on 141 from 144
So there are less horses well in this time most that have had recent runs seem wrong at the weights now.
#383
March 10th, 2010 21:21
i just hope tricky trickster wins the gold cup with one of the hardest races ever so that he is not fit for the national.
Petrified off him, he has the ability, not a bad weight for him considering he used to carrying 11-11 over long distances.
But i haven’t backed him and don’t intend to not worth it rather take an e/w longshot as my saver.
#384
March 10th, 2010 21:39
Hi all, I saw some posts discussing Mr Pointment. I thought i’d mention i just wrote a little ditty on him, his stable mate Cerium and the Murphy Yard on my blog. (2nd post down).
I’m also doing a little Cheltenham Comp if anyone is interested.
In search of the big win
http://spankmydonkey.blogspot.com/
#385
March 10th, 2010 21:49
Daniel – Big Bucks was about 6/4 to back months and months after last year’s festival. I have him in at least ten separate bets, mostly doubles with other horses I fancy for Cheltenham and I can assure you that he was 7/2 to win the World Hurdle after last year’s race. Remember he was a well backed 6/1 chance on the day and he still had Punchestowns and possibly Kasbah Bliss. The 6/4 type prices were available not all that long before he beat Karabak and Diamond Harry at Newbury which was many months into the season. As was Dunguib for the Supreme. I am beginning to worry about how much you know about racing with your comments on Dunguib. Good luck to you laying Dunguib. Still, we will see who is right next week.
#386
March 10th, 2010 22:37
Just for the record Mon Mome was dropped 2lb for his run behind Rambo in last year’s Haydock GN Trial (and I’m sure he would have gone down again for Midlands performance, but ended up winning GN) – what the handicapper does and what the trainer has in mind don’t necessarily match!
#387
March 10th, 2010 22:50
I agree with John; I think Tricky Trickster could be something very special and he does worry me.
#388
March 10th, 2010 22:58
Definitely think Gold Cup is the key race from Cheltenham
#389
March 11th, 2010 00:00
I think Niche will reverse places with tricky and the pair (given a clear round) won’t be far away. I know that tricky is weighted to be better on the Aon run, but in that and the Hennessy Niche was always very handy, just basically running flat out. Watched his Irish national win and he was mid division earlier on suggesting a much better tactical race. I hope in the grand national they run this kinda race rather than just flat out.
Also reviewed snowy and Arbor again. Thought snowy’s race was slow earlier on although it was on heavy ground. Liked Arbor though and the way he switched off at the back until the business end of his race. In my opinion if Arbor was to go for the national I can quite easily see him winning. Or running a big race.
#390
March 11th, 2010 00:19
Thanks for that Domi.
Great article for Cerium and Mr P fans:
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/racing/Turf-topics-Murphy-in-plea.5987852.jp
We DO NOT have time at this crucial stage to blab on about the Wilsons, but this great article shows how well Paul Murphy works with horses that have lost their way.
#391
March 11th, 2010 00:28
Showlad, can we talk about the Wilson then after Mr Pointment wins the national.
Only joking (or I am).
#392
March 11th, 2010 01:07
Showlad just read the article you gave the link for….and what i found more interesting than the wilsons and Mr P or Cerium was the paragraph where he said
“that the race has improved so much that 10 years ago you would have got into the race with 110 and now it is around the 139 mark”
being that we work from mainly 10 year trends and the race has improved that much then surely the weight stat will be shot in the very near future, last years 1st 4 home were 11st, 11-6, 11-4, 11-2 could this be the year that it goes?
The classier the race gets the more the weights get compressed, this year for example when the weights were first out before any withdrawals there was only 14LB between the first 50 horses i think this must be the tightest national weight wise there has ever been, so it’s inevitable that this stat will become less relevent as the years go by, this could be the year for a turn up.
#393
March 11th, 2010 01:37
Yes Neil we have absolutely NO IDEA what Mr P has been doing with Paul.
All we DO KNOW is that he did an amazing job on Cerium last year going down same route.
Puzzled – TOTALLY. Niche or Dream for me could be the 2 who could blow the weights stat out of the water. Any of that Arbor news Puzzled?
#394
March 11th, 2010 05:47
Showlad, being serious here, admin ran a thread on Cerium saying should he have got in last year’s race, at the expense of some better animals like Niche.
#395
March 11th, 2010 08:30
Whiterab – I dont know much about racing…but I know Dunguib cant jump!!
In my opinion, backing a novice hurdler who cant jump at evens is a quick way to the poorhouse!!
Three words for you;
My
Cousin
Vinny
#396
March 11th, 2010 09:00
Neil – In answer to your question about Mr P – Back both!!
#397
March 11th, 2010 09:47
Calling Mr. Bumble’s house, can crisp come out to play.
crisp,
Might be worth checking out Hello Bud’s S/R’s again(C/47%OK,43%-2%,L/44%-3%,42%OK). Apart from Eric he’s the only real 30/30 stat horse with Hcap wins on a low weight and high on Daniel’s list. If he gets a 1/2/3 in last prep race, which he would need, then numbers on GN day would be C/43%OK+1% and L/42%OK. Very, very low but a pass.
#398
March 11th, 2010 11:11
No Showlad sorry no Arbor news as yet……i still have ante-post money for him burning a hole in my pocket, when/if i hear anything i will post as soon as
#399
March 11th, 2010 11:51
Re; Antepost and non-runners asked by Maureen. You get your money back if your horse is balloted out, this means he has to be declared right up to the last stage and not switched to a different race before then, its not just the four reserves. So its always best to be cautious over horses entered in two or more races at the Aintree festival as I’d expect Trust Fund to be, as connections will switch target if they think they won’t get in. If a horse has only one target then its a safer bet even if unlikely to get into the race.
On Mr Pointment surprised no one has mentioned to the reason he was sold by Paul Nicholls his cronic bleeding problems, somewhat of an issue for a staying chaser hoping to complete 4.5miles. Just hope the jock has the good sense to pull him up early should he bleed again.
#400
March 11th, 2010 12:03
Never fancied My Cousin Vinny at all Daniel. Dunguib is in a totally different league to him! He won’t have to jump brilliantly to win. I guess that with Quevaga at 5/4 who has not run since May last year and others, I was very surprised you consider Dunguib the lay of the meeting. But it’s all about opinions.
#401
March 11th, 2010 12:10
I think it was mentioned Brody a long time ago in an early episode of the saga known as ‘the wilsons’!
Sorry I bought Mr.P up again and didn’t mention the fact that I think it is cruel to the horse and a potential casualty this year, thanks Brody.
While you are around what are your fancies? can’t remember seeing many thoughts from you, latest thoughts on top picks?
#402
March 11th, 2010 12:15
in conjunction with what i said in post #390 here are things in a little more detail.
This is how the handicap has become compressed over the last 10 years.
2000 26 LB between the 40 runners at post time
2001 24 LB
2002 26LB
2003 26LB
2004 26LB
At this point things start to change
2005 21LB
2006 22LB
2007 24LB
And from this point a big change happens
2008 19LB
2009 19LB
2010 13LB..thus far, maybe 17-19LB come post time
back at the start of the Decade when there was 26LB between top weight and bottom very rarely did a horse carrying 11st or more make the frame, in the latter years as the handicap has become more and more compressed more horses carrying 11st or more have made the frame….for example last year 5 out of the 1st 6 home carried 11st or more (11st,11-6,11-4,11-2 and 11-1)
I have always used the no horse over 11-2 stat as a fundermental part of my selection process in trying to find the winner, and this year i have done the same, and i hope that it holds this year, but with the handicap so compressed and a more classier type of horse lining up in the latter years it’s not a stat that i will rely on so heavily on in the future, as it is only a matter of time before it is no longer an important stat.
#403
March 11th, 2010 12:19
As you say Whiterab – all about opinions.
You may not have fancied him, but a lot of others did!
On what Dunguib has shown to date, he looks very similar to what MCV had shown prior to his supreme run last year.
Master Minded looks more solid to me and is a similar price. Id lay Dunguib everytime im afraid. Id lose some, but id win more, im sure of it.
In other news, Air Force One being given a run at Down Royal on March 17th (Wednesday)
Should be worth watching
#404
March 11th, 2010 12:21
oh, and I may have been over egging the pudding by saying ‘lay of the meeting’ i’ll give you that.
#405
March 11th, 2010 12:46
Puzzled
we are heading for a record number of 11’0+ runners, think there are 27 presently!
2 had 11st+ in 1990, 1 in 1997! 5 out of 6 recent yrs that has been in double figures, with 2008 having highest number 18!
Full list from Pablo post #190, further post goes on to show who actually won with 11st+ and why I am now working with a higher outside weight of <11'06
74 Red Rum 12'0
77 Red Rum 11'8
82 Grittar 11'5
83 Corbiere 11'4
88 Rhyme ‘N’ Reason 11'0
05 Hedgehunter 11'1
09 Mon Mome 11'0
Crisp! comeback, you gone AWOL?
What with systemsman waiting on a battery for his computer, you,.. and the economic meltdown!
well heres a story, the guy that was supposed to get me a new oven (1st replacement burns everything, no grill off option!) well heard yesterday, he's apparently gone AWOL, after his supplier went bust and we're all waiting for him to turn up, only thing is I remembered this morning he has a big, big snake!
Well, don't keep snakes folks and someone just get me a proper bloody oven!
#406
March 11th, 2010 12:53
having said that I’m working with <11'6, COD and the others were left for dead by MM on just 11st!
If COD was really match fit on those weights it would have been closer, but I still think MM would have won. 11'1- 11'3 more possible.
#407
March 11th, 2010 13:02
It is only a matter of time before the weight stat goes…
that said, im not sure it will go above 11_05 for a while.
#408
March 11th, 2010 13:04
KJ i think you are quite right – and in future years if the handicap is to follow it’s recent trend of being so compacted i will also be using a figure of around 11-5/11-6, it would be foolhardy not to, however i am going to have to leave it for this year and hope luck is on my side as i have placed most of my bets already
#409
March 11th, 2010 13:57
Maybe it is more difficult to get a horse to be well-handicapped for the GN once it is rated in the 150s these days given that we haven’t had any horses running with a GN OR in the 160s since 1999
List below for the last 10 years (year 2000 first) shows the number of horses OR 150+ during a stable period of top weights (OR 153-158) when winning ORs ranged from 136 to 148.
Also none of the past 10 winners had ever been rated in the 150s.
GN OR winner; Highest ever rating; top weight OR; number of horses rated 150+
139; 143; 155; 3
140; 143; 153; 1
136; 140; 158; 5
139; 139; 158; 5
139; 139; 155; 6
144; 144; 155; 2
138; 138; 156; 6
138; 142; 158; 6
139; 148; 156; 8
148; 148; 158; 13
It may be a coincidence but every winner since 1990 has carried at least 10 lb below top weight. Not sure what this differential means – any thoughts?
#410
March 11th, 2010 14:12
Hi, the GN winner is either Black Apalachi for Big Fella Thanks with places for Comply or Die, Mon Momme, State of Play and My Will…just wanted to go on the record!
#411
March 11th, 2010 14:16
After a lot of thought overnight this is my top six list. Looks like our early pre-Jan 1st work was fairly accurate (a good reason for doing an early poll is that its easier to sort the wood from the trees!).
I have three who tie for first place (both AS and HB were in my pre Jan 1st list).
Arbor Supreme
Snowy Morning
Hello Bud
Like one or two others I have not yet given up on GTL who gets fourth place due to his good trends and potential class. He needs another run and needs to show some form or wear blinkers but its looking very doubtful now but I wont desert him just yet.
5th and 5th place gets very, very difficult (and thre si a big gap between them and top three/four) as I am confident the winner in in the four above and I may change they two later but for the monment they go to
Dream Allince (just possible but only just)
Big fella Thanks
So if I have to give score its (but remember i have the first three as a tie and any of the three could win):
Arbor Supreme 6
Hello Bud 5
Snowy Morning 4
….BIG GAP…..
Gone To Lunch 3
Dream Alliance 2
Big Fella Thanks 1
Others worth a mention (savers?)- who may replace my 5/6th choice at some point.
War Of Attrition (if he runs)
Ballyfitz
Niche Market (if a big weight should win)
New points follows on from post 346
snowy morning 62
arbor supreme 45
hello bud 36
big fella thanks 20
state of play 19
character building 18
ballyfitz 13
war of attrition 12
dream alliance 12
eric’s charm 11
black appalachi 9
cane brake 9
beat the boys 8
niche market 8
backstage 6
irish raptor 6
gone to lunch 5
maljimar 5
ollie magern 5
razor royale 4
comply or die 4
casey jones 3
mon mome 3
king john’s castle 2
mr pointment 1
parsons pistol 1
ellerslie george 1
#412
March 11th, 2010 14:43
I’m not sure about the weight stat going, purely because I think that, when horses run over such extreme distances every lb over 11st gets more like 2 or more pounds. I think that the handicaps at Cheltenham very rarely get won by horses carrying over 11st.
#413
March 11th, 2010 14:48
Good man Daniel – we can have a theoritcal 50p on that one then! Still v much enjoy your posts.
#414
March 11th, 2010 14:49
Willie Mullins “tweets” on Twitter every now and again. He was on there last night delivering the news about one of his jockeys (E Mullins – related?) getting inuured so I sent him a message asking about Arbor. I’m not holding my breath for a reply as its obviously a busy time for him and i’m sure he is inundated with messages, but there’s nothing to lose is there? I’ll let you know if I hear anything back.
#415
March 11th, 2010 14:51
Great News Pablo – CANE BRAKE is slotted in for Down Royal H’Cap Chase on 17th March alongside Air, One Cool and Offshore.
C’mon CANE BRAKE!!!!
#416
March 11th, 2010 14:53
KJ bloody hilarious post and with a close 2nd comes the Dano/Whitearab exchange and Dano ‘overegging it’ lol.
U guys made me laugh today.
Ewok great – let us know if you get a reply!
#417
March 11th, 2010 15:06
Good news for Cane Brake backers!!
#418
March 11th, 2010 15:28
ADMIN: The cursor on the right hand side to scroll down the page is missing can you please tell web team to replace (Just had to fanny with page for 5 mins to get to bottom post).
Thanks
#419
March 11th, 2010 15:44
Whitereb – good to see that you can understand that two people can have differing opinions on something and still respect each other and get on!
Dont for one second (and this goes for everybody) think if I disagree with you I am shooting you down.
#420
March 11th, 2010 16:00
Not at all mate, not at all. Our chat was almost like breakfast with the wife and a morning meeting with the boss!
#421
March 11th, 2010 16:12
Decent looking race too for Cane Brake
Know whether he’ll be GN material next Wednesday
Really glad he has at least a chance to prove his worth over fences before the big one
On the 11st+ point – don’t think that there’s been an 11st+ winner of the William Hill for at least 10 years
#422
March 11th, 2010 16:34
Quite right Pablo – In fact, 8 of the last 10 winners have had less than 10_10!
There has been no 6 or 11 year old winners in that time either, although an 11 year old won in 1997. No 6 year old has won since Antoni in 1994 – big negative for Tatenen.
The last 10 winners were all unexposed as well, with all of them having less than 20 chase runs and 8 of them having had 12 or less.
The market often gets it right on this one, with 8 of the last ten being in the first 5 in the betting.
Those 3 stats alone (10_10 or under, aged 7-10, top 5 in the market) would have got you 7 of the last 10 winners, which leaves you this year (in a Tania’s tipbit style) with;
The Package
Bible Lord
Officier De Reserve (without a run yet this season)
Ogee
Fingeronthepulse (hasnt won over 3 miles yet)
Palypso De Creek would meet them to, but he is going to go elsewhere according to the trainer
Ive only gone down as far as Lacdoudal in the card, so when the final decs are out, I will do the rest, if need be.
#423
March 11th, 2010 16:35
God im an idiot – that list above is for the first two stats only – obviously apply the ‘top 5 in the market’ one on the day.
Sorry!
#424
March 11th, 2010 20:42
I like to address two points here.
First Irish Raptor. The reasons why IR was choicen by me, he won round the Aintree Fences (Topham Chase) and was second the year before. He’s no class 1 win but has a class 2 win over 27 furlongs at cheltenham. Also when weights were published his trainer said he comes alive at Aintree. I admit he’s not as stylish as Snowy and Arbor but I think he deserves a chance.
Point number two. The 11+ group. So people seemed to think it taboo to bet on anything over 11 stone. The trends point to 10 something they say. Well they right, and wrong.
Before I get shouted down I’ll explain.
This article is from Nick Mordin column in the Weekender on the weights issue.
Quote:
In the old days there were invariably only 2 or 3 horses in the GN set to carry 11-2 or more. A large number of the other runners were moderate horses who were out of the handicap, quite often by a huge margin. They carried the minimum weight of 10st. But they would have carried 20lb-plus less on their true marks.
Now though, the handicap for the GN is getting more compressed with each passing year. Results show that the GC horses are increasingly being scared out of the race by the bad recent record of those carrying big weights. At the same time the huge number of moderate horses who would previously have been able to run from out of the handicap are steadily being squeezed out.
The stats for the last 20 GN show this clearly.
In the last 10 runnings of the GN the top weight has run off an OR 158 or less. The 10 previous to the top weight ran off a mark of at least 163 (adjusting for the different OR scale in the first couple of years).
The bottom weight was OR 127 in 2000. Which has crept up until last year’s mark of 139. Previously most bottom weights used to be in the long handicap and carried minimum of 10st. In the last 5 GN no horse has carried 10-2, and in 4 of the last 5 races the lowest weight was 10-4 or more.
This demonstrates that from 1984 to the present the has been 103 entries running on 11-2 or more unsuccessfully.
In the 38 other GN from WW2 to 1983, 12 entries carried 11-2 or more to success from 87 attempts.Before WW2 40 of the last 99 GN went to 11-2 or more. In fact from 1865 to 1983 there was never a run of more than 7 GN where no winner carried 11-2 or more. From that date the as been 25 races in a row where the winner has carried below this mark.
#425
March 11th, 2010 23:38
ADMIN: The cursor on the right hand side to scroll down the page is missing can you please tell web tesm to replac4 (Just had to fanny with page for 5 mins to get to bottom post).
Thanks;
#426
March 12th, 2010 09:36
Hi,
This doesn’t seem to be happening on my screen – is it a problem for anyone else?
#427
March 12th, 2010 10:05
Surely the ‘cursor’ is part of the browser, as opposed to this site?
#428
March 12th, 2010 10:27
Post 425 looks like a poor attempt at a copy of post 418 – I’d ignore it
Site works fine for me using IE
#429
March 12th, 2010 11:31
Yep, ‘cursor’ is fine for me
#430
March 12th, 2010 12:09
ADMIN: Cursor obv a temp glitch and is now fine.
Also the page is fantastic now – so thanks to you and your team!
Showlad is off out for a day of pampering – it’s my Birthday!
Look forward to reading your posts later tonight everyone
My Birthday Blog Wish: Crisp where are you??
#431
March 12th, 2010 12:12
Palypso De Creek would meet them to, but he is going to go elsewhere according to the trainer
———————————————
I though PDC’s trainer was hoping to sneek into the GN? ???
#432
March 12th, 2010 12:15
Trainer quote for PDC-
“He loved the Grand National fences when he ran in the Becher Chase. He pulled a front shoe off right at the beginning of the race, which made him slightly careful over those fences, but he jumped well. He is a tidy, economical jumper, which I presume is what you need round there anyway.
“He would certainly run once more before the John Smith’s Grand National, possibly twice more. He will get entries in plenty of races and could go to Cheltenham and then on to Aintree. We will enter him in races like the William Hill Chase and the Kim Muir, but it is too early to say for certain where he will run.”
#433
March 12th, 2010 12:57
I was talking about the WH Trophy Conduit – his trainer said last week he is going to run over hurdles, in the Pertempts if my memory serves me right.
#434
March 12th, 2010 13:28
Happy Birthday Showlad!
lets hope your birthday wish comes true and Crisp is getting some vitamin E like the rest of us today, I know I need it.
Have a great day, its mild and sunny here and spring is definately springing, the gods be shining on yee! enjoy
Maybe it’ll be like 1947 which my Dad says went straight from freezing and gloomy to mid June!
Gotta do my list later, poll closes tonight everyone and looks like they’ll definately be snow ontop!
#435
March 12th, 2010 14:07
Many bookies have removed coe from their markets, looks like he is out of the race….he might not have got a run anyway.
#436
March 12th, 2010 15:09
Took your advice Daniel, and backed with William Hills @ 150/1 & Paddy Power @ 66/1. Shan’t hold my breath on a return (mainly because I can’t hold it for a month). However the system I’ve used brings him up as a candidate so very small stakes. Hope he comes back in good health win or lose.
#437
March 12th, 2010 15:20
Snowy out of Ryanair – I wonder is that it then. At least he is over the 100f. mark.
Gone To Lunch out of World hurdle.
#438
March 12th, 2010 15:22
Casey Jones is entered in William Hill Trophy and Gold Cup. Does anyone know which his intended target is? Either way, he will probably be declared as a late non-runner as usual!
#439
March 12th, 2010 15:25
Happy Birthday Showlad,Your free fish & chips are waiting for you at the Chippie and i’ll meet you at the Queen Vic for a few drinks later!! best wishes IAN x
#440
March 12th, 2010 16:04
Yes yes yes – keep Snowy wrapped up in his blanket please! Im sure he will be anyway.
No surprise about GTL really.
#441
March 12th, 2010 16:22
Enjoy birthday celebrations Showlad & let’s hope that the whole blog is celebrating on April 10th as Cane Brake jogs past Snowy & Arbor for the tricast
#442
March 12th, 2010 17:37
Instead of using the 30/30 stat, it might be no harm to start with the 6 basic stats which Admin gave us a few years ago –
•8 to 12 years old
•handicap rating above 135 on the day
•weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
•won over at least three miles
•run in at least ten chases
•won a chase worth at least £17,000
That leaves 33 horses down to 10.06
COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 11-11-05;
DON’T PUSH IT (IRE) 10-11-05;
NICHE MARKET (IRE) 9-11-04
CASEY JONES (IRE) 9-11-03;
CLOUDY LANE 10-11-03;
DREAM ALLIANCE 9-11-03;
NOZIC (FR) 9-11-03;
MY WILL (FR) 10-11-02;
WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 11-11-01;
BACKSTAGE (FR) 8-11-00;
BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 9-11-00;
PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 10-11-00;
CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 8-10-13;
SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 10-10-13;
AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 8-10-12;
BIG FELLA THANKS 8-10-12;
LOUPING D’AINAY (FR) 11-10-12;
CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 10-10-11;
CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 10-10-11;
GONE TO LUNCH (IRE) 10-10-11;
STATE OF PLAY 10-10-11;
ELLERSLIE GEORGE (IRE) 10-10-10;
ERIC’S CHARM (FR) 12-10-09;
OLLIE MAGERN 12-10-09;
ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 8-10-08;
CANE BRAKE (IRE) 11-10-08;
IRISH RAPTOR (IRE) 11-10-07;
MR POINTMENT (IRE) 11-10-07;
PARSONS PISTOL (IRE) 8-10-07;
RAZOR ROYALE (IRE) 8-10-07;
HELLO BUD (IRE) 12-10-06;
IRIS DE BALME (FR) 10-10-06;
TRUST FUND (IRE) 12-10-06;
Well at least that’s a start. (go on Snowy)
#443
March 12th, 2010 17:58
Coe died after his last race.
#444
March 12th, 2010 18:23
Maureen, that’s tragic!
#445
March 12th, 2010 18:57
Oh that is really sad, he jumped great on saturday and was such a giving horse, really likeable, ran some good races recently, progressing youngster, its a real shame. My heart goes out to his team. RIP lovely horse.
Back to business….Working out who is going to run in what at cheltenham is still a puzzle to me, and I am still puzzled as to whether most likely top weight Madison de B is going to defend his Bowl rather than the GN and if lightly weighted Trust Fund, will miss his only chance and more likely be asked to lug 12st and defend his Hunter chase!
I’d love to back him, anyone heard of his intentions being anything other than hunter chases? was he entered in GN before this year?
Still feels an impossible task, finding the winner!
even if I fall back on funny feelings!
double leTTers esp double LLs, well picking some is easy and the winner from there still hard!
Dream aLLiance, heLLo bud, Big feLLa thanks, My wiLL, baLLyfitz, baLLytrim and ..baLLyheLL thats 6 right there! Its ridiculous
#446
March 12th, 2010 19:21
trust fund has been running in plenty of points and i’d expect him to go very close at cheltenham
beginning something may yet come out of cheltenham, in particular keeping close interest on a few although a few probably won’t get in
Hello Bud
Ollie Magern
Irish Raptor
Oodachee
Knowhere
looks like no-one is yet to fancy anthing strongly for the national, which has to be a good thing after Rambo last year
#447
March 12th, 2010 19:47
KJ I don’t entertain the double letter theory, but some apply it to the jockey as well, I believe.
This is the full list of double letters and their entry positions at the moment according to RP.
17 dream aLLiance
19 poSSol
20 my wiLL
24 baLLyhoLLand
33 big feLLa thanks
38 dOOneys gate
42 eLLerslie george
43 foLLow the plan
44 baLLyfitz
45 coNNa castle
46 eqUUas maximus
49 oLLie magern
52 leNNon
61 heLLo bud
63 palyso de crEEk
65 aBBeybraney
67 flintoFF
72 OOdachEE
74 fAAsel
76 oFFicier de reserve
81 baLLytrim
82 oFFshore aCCount
88 anothercoPPercoast
90 poMMe tiepy
93 aCCording to john
95 over the crEEk
96 coSSack dancer
97 wEE roBBie
98 oFFaly
That’s without cheating, cheating you can add any horse with a W (double U) ie snoWy morning.
Also I thought it had to be idential third and fourth letters.
#448
March 12th, 2010 20:38
Still drafting the words for my pre-Cheltenham analysis but expect this to be finished tomorrow. Until then here’s my top six to make the deadline tonight. Will post my theories when the prose is complete.
1st) ERIC’S CHARM (6pts)
2nd) CHARACTER BUILDING (5pts)
3rd) BEAT THE BOYS (4pts)
4th) CAN’T BUY TIME (3pts)
5th) ELLERSLIE GEORGE (2pts)
6th) CHELSEA HARBOUR (1pts)
And the updated table…
snowy morning 62
arbor supreme 45
hello bud 36
character building 23
big fella thanks 20
state of play 19
eric’s charm 17
ballyfitz 13
war of attrition 12
dream alliance 12
beat the boys 12
black appalachi 9
cane brake 9
niche market 8
backstage 6
irish raptor 6
gone to lunch 5
maljimar 5
ollie magern 5
razor royale 4
comply or die 4
casey jones 3
mon mome 3
can’t buy time 3
ellerslie george 3
king john’s castle 2
mr pointment 1
parsons pistol 1
chelsea harbour 1
#449
March 12th, 2010 21:19
thanks for the eFFort NeiLL, soRRy Neil, ah, you unlucky
you’ve indulged me now, so I’LL continue.
Truth is, I’ve managed to find alot of wiNNers in this race in the past, with a wave of my magic wand! (disclaimer- doesn’t aPPly to donkeys, use your nOOdle or noDDle even!)
) the similar ‘double worded beasts starting with the same leTTer’ (not just Irish Invader, darn) I woulda only backed 3 and won.
Last year regardleSS of months of study, if I’d backed my fuNNy fEElings (which I reported here in true crackpot style and risking my gOOd name
No such luck this year with my only fEElins giving a general 29, although only 10 with double LL!!!.. and I’d imagine alot of people got more horses than that already! My powers are weaker these days as I geTTin tOO old to listen, but hey, worth tuning in and droPPin out, maybe not, but must try, its tOO close to caLL otherwise.
Wouldn’t suprise me if the wiNNer is in this 10. Who knows, maybe Niche or Snowy wiLL win, foLLowed by 3 horses with double LLs
P.S Be careful foLLowers, tOO many doubles unlucky this ain’t no aCCumalator! Double leTTers has actually been quite deadly for both man and beast, check the famous roLL caLL, which is a problem as I got double LL in my name, hah!
P.P.S I wiLL try and produce a serious considered list tonight, as even I don’t believe in my powers!
#450
March 12th, 2010 22:07
You are a NuTTER.
#451
March 12th, 2010 22:26
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00rbm34/Storyville_20092010_Race_Horses/
Documentary on iPlayer about Paul Nolan’s stable featuring Joncol and 2 other horses – it’s 80 mins but well worth it for a look behind the scenes – really focussed on the horses and the training staff do all the talking so there’s no annoying narrative a la usual Channel 4 brown-nosing hype
Interesting what they say about the ground when GTL came second at Punchestown – not as soft/heavy as the official going was described apparently – which would make sense given GTL’s liking for g/s or faster
Joncol is huge and should be some horse when he grows up
#452
March 12th, 2010 22:35
War of Attrition 6
Snowy Morning 5
Big Fella thanks 4
Niche Market 3
Comply or Die 2
Trust Fund 1
snowy morning 67
arbor supreme 45
hello bud 36
big fella thanks 24
character building 23
state of play 19
war of attrition 18
eric’s charm 17
ballyfitz 13
dream alliance 12
beat the boys 12
niche market 11
black appalachi 9
cane brake 9
comply or die 6
backstage 6
irish raptor 6
gone to lunch 5
maljimar 5
ollie magern 5
razor royale 4
casey jones 3
mon mome 3
can’t buy time 3
ellerslie george 3
king john’s castle 2
mr pointment 1
parsons pistol 1
chelsea harbour 1
trust fund 1
For what its worth heres my current thinking, change my mind all the time like alot of us this year always had a list of 12 since day 1.
Pablo that doc was a really good watch.
#453
March 12th, 2010 23:03
i did not know that coe had died….i am sure he got 3rd last saturday in a race on C4, it might have been the grimthorpe?
#454
March 12th, 2010 23:17
Yes puzzled Coe did finish third to Wogan in the grimthorpe, because the first three was all presenting progency.
KJ isn’t horses like Red Rum and Mon Mome where the two or more words in the name starting with the same letter cheating. However its your money. If I was to do that system I look who’s riding and see if a double letter horse matches a double letter jockey.
PS Jockey Wilson on Snowy Morning doesn’t count as he is a dartsplayer and probably will put up overweight.
#455
March 12th, 2010 23:21
If any of these do win for you KJ I’d like it to be dreamy aLLaince. As I’ve got an interest on this at double carpet (so big mac calls it ).
#456
March 13th, 2010 00:11
me too Neil! hope the dream wakes up at aintree and last run was enough to recover from WN or i’ll have to throw a double!! unless ofcourse theres some snowboating about!
As for ‘cheating’ with Mon Mome er lucky vibes differ every year like horses that meet the stats. Before you all burn me at the stake, using my lucky vibes plus thought ofcourse and classic stats has won me this race many times over, so only mentioning my nutty theories to help, although I realise some of you may be allergic
#457
March 13th, 2010 00:16
Yep, sad news about Coe. I didn’t know that until Maureen mentioned it and, although I can’t find anything about it on various google searches, Racing Post record does now list him as ‘died as an 8 year old’. Very sad. Hope they all come out of Cheltenham OK.
#458
March 13th, 2010 00:18
Talking about stupid theories etc, I was watching a programme earlier and one of the contestants was called Casey James. Very similar to Casey Jones. COME ON CJ!!
#459
March 13th, 2010 00:22
Kj, you’re probably too young, but I think they should give dreamy a double diamond ” It works wonders “.
I think crisp 73 is around my age, so think he knowns the advert I am referring to.
#460
March 13th, 2010 00:41
its a long time since I’ve actually been to the races and stood near horses that have just run,
the documentary that was on tv thursday night and pablo has posted a link to, really brings home how hard these athletic animals run and frankly how dangerous their state seems immediately after a race. Coe ran his heart out, quite literally I’d imagine.
Sorry Neil, I am too young I think?! you need Crisp too! My sillyness, doesn’t work so well, without Crisp reading between the lines, telling stories where are you???? and I would say systemsman too, but he generally ignores me as he’s far too serious. Thanks to Miinehomma last few days trying to keep us ship shape, its all about the mix I feel, and its showlads birthday wish that you come back Crisp!
#461
March 13th, 2010 06:00
As well as horses, let’s think about the jockeys too, Sam Thomas out of the festival and probably Aintree thanks to an accident at Paul Nichols yard and now Graham Lee, these brave people deserve our respect.
#462
March 13th, 2010 10:41
Good Morning Team – Wing Commander Showlad reporting in – Sirs!!
Thanks to KJ, Wacky and Pablo for your Birthday wishes – nice chilled day out dinner and drive yesterday – the real blast has been reserved for tonight – well it is SATURAY Night innit??
Thanks Wacky Ian for the those drinks at the Queen Vic – I needed them to get over that fish – Pat does get distracted when she spots a dangly set of new earings across the street on a market stall and then overcooks and burns the batter doesn’t she (and always gives you too much vinegar for my liking!!).
OK thank you one and all for your wonderful Top 6 Tips votes. I will now issue mine and bring this phahse cordially and officially to a close.
Thanks to Pablo for the great idea of this extra phase prior to Chelts – very useful.
Votes coming now…
#463
March 13th, 2010 10:58
Right. Like many of you there are a good dozen with genuine staking-a-claim to having a chance to win the 2010 GN.
But that’s the beauty of our Table – it makes you define your fancies and hopefully together we will get the winner.
6 Points – HELLO BUD. This horse reaks class and in the Grand National you CANNOT give the Scots National winner and staying specialist nearly a stone up and expect to catch him.
5 Points – DREAM ALLIANCE. Our in and out fairy tale horse. ‘In’ run at Welsh ‘Out’ run last time and I feel it will be an ‘In’ at Aintree but over 4m4f he will run out of gas and make a late surge but not catch Hello Bud.
4 Points – NICHE MARKET. Class will out as with Dream Alliance, but will find to be crucially wanting when it really matters with his weight at the final inspection.
3 Points – ERIC’S CHARM. You simply cannot ignore the form of his life and this staying gent. Could well be in the frame.
2 Points – CANE BRAKE – I favour him over Arbor to be our Irish dark horse. Class act.
1 Point – SNOWY MORNING – Again another great run but will be amongst the bridesmaids I feel.
TOP 6 TIPSTERS LEAGUE – PHASE 3 FINAL TABLE
PHASE 4 OPENS AFTER JOHNNY HENDERSON CHASE CLOSES CHELTENHAM 5.15PM FRIDAY 19 MARCH
snowy morning 68
arbor supreme 45
hello bud 42
big fella thanks 24
character building 23
eric’s charm 20
state of play 19
war of attrition 18
dream alliance 17
niche market 15
ballyfitz 13
beat the boys 12
cane brake 11
black appalachi 9
comply or die 6
backstage 6
irish raptor 6
gone to lunch 5
maljimar 5
ollie magern 5
razor royale 4
casey jones 3
mon mome 3
can’t buy time 3
ellerslie george 3
king john’s castle 2
mr pointment 1
parsons pistol 1
chelsea harbour 1
trust fund 1
#464
March 13th, 2010 11:19
Look at the movements in best prices on oddschecker since before weights came out and up to today (pre Cheltenham).
IN = price has come in since before weights
OU = price has drifted since before weights
NC = no change in price (although it may have moved in between like Mon Mome)
NQ = no quote avaialable
Pre weights; Post weights; After Bobbyjo; Pre Cheltenham; Movement; Horse
21; 21; 21; 11; IN; Big Fella Thanks
13; 13; 13; 13; NC; Tricky Trickster
17; 17; 17; 17; NC; Niche Market
21; 21; 17; 17; IN; Black Apalachi
26; 26; 17; 17; IN; Vic Venturi
26; 21; 21; 21; IN; Backstage
34; NQ; 21; 21; IN; War Of Attrition
26; 26; 34; 26; NC; Mon Mome
26; 26; 26; 26; NC; Comply Or Die
34; 26; 26; 26; IN; State Of Play
41; 41; 41; 26; IN; Arbor Supreme
41; 34; 34; 26; IN; Snowy Morning
34; 34; 34; 34; NC; Character Building
34; 41; 34; 34; NC; Whinstone Boy
41; 34; 34; 34; IN; Ballyholland
41; 41; 34; 34; IN; The Package
21; 21; 21; 41; OU; Possol
41; 41; 41; 41; NC; My Will
41; 41; 41; 41; NC; Dont Push It
41; 41; 41; 41; NC; Maljimar
41; 41; 41; 41; NC; Cant Buy Time
41; 41; 41; 41; NC; Irish Raptor
51; 41; 41; 41; IN; Casey Jones
81; 81; 81; 41; IN; Razor Royale
34; 34; 51; 51; OU; Dream Alliance
41; 41; 51; 51; OU; Notre Pere
51; 51; 51; 51; NC; Hello Bud
51; 51; 51; 51; NC; Iris De Balme
51; 51; 51; 51; NC; King Johns Castle
51; 51; 51; 51; NC; Silver Birch
51; 51; 51; 51; NC; Le Beau Bai
51; 51; 51; 51; NC; Palypso De Creek
51; 51; 51; 51; NC; Madison Du Berlais
51; 51; 51; 51; NC; Roulez Cool
67; 67; 67; 51; IN; Cloudy Lane
41; 41; 41; 67; OU; Gone To Lunch
67; 51; 51; 67; NC; Air Force One
67; 67; 67; 67; NC; Cane Brake
67; 67; 67; 67; NC; Joe Lively
67; 67; 67; 67; NC; Abbeybraney
67; 67; 67; 67; NC; Flintoff
67; 67; 67; 67; NC; Treacle
67; 67; 67; 67; NC; Ballyfitz
67; 67; 67; 67; NC; Cerium
67; 67; 67; 67; NC; Ballytrim
67; 67; 67; 67; NC; Albertas Run
101; 101; 101; 67; IN; Erics Charm
51; 67; 67; 81; OU; Our Vic
81; 81; 81; 81; NC; New Alco
81; 81; 81; 81; NC; Beat The Boys
81; 101; 101; 81; NC; Trust Fund
None of those currently quoted above 100 have come ‘IN’
#465
March 13th, 2010 11:47
Erics Charm is probably the only fancied horse that I haven’t backed, so I’m going to remedy that this weekend [annoyed I missed the huge prices for him]. I’m not sure that a predisposition to running a certain way is a problem in the National [apart from Canal turn] and I favour 12 year olds over younger horses [9 and 10 still being the best age imo, but I have a problem with 11 year olds]. Can I just say how fascinating this years race has been right from the start; a headache, yes, but certainly not boring. Lets hope the race itself is as good. Just worried that I have totally ignored horses like Black Apalachi and Vic Venturi right from the start [would love BA to run a mighty race even without my money on him; he certainly deserves to].
#466
March 13th, 2010 11:50
Are we forgetting MM again? Thoughts please.
#467
March 13th, 2010 11:57
Oh, and apologies for not putting up a list of my top 6 because my ‘short’ list is still @16;however, apart from Kilcrea Castle, who I only backed in a ‘jumping on bandwagons’ sort of way in case his price came in, it looks as if I might almost reach my target of having my ante post horses running. Also going to top up my bet on Character Building, because he won’t be 33/1 after Tuesday imo.
#468
March 13th, 2010 12:00
MM.Yes, I think we are; who could forget the manner in which he ran and jumped last year. I suppose we have to draw lines somewhere, even with the race getting so difficult to predict, and a big weight like that has got to be a major consideration.
#469
March 13th, 2010 12:39
Still think last years national was a poor race, so i cant have MM at all this year with so many classy horses at the bottom of the handicap
real lack of action on the cheltenham thread!!
#470
March 13th, 2010 13:28
SHOWADDY WADDY belated birthday greetings.
you have made my day as your compiled list has my top 8 with this blogs top 8.still will keep an eye on mr.p.though as i have a gut feeling this is going to be the surprise,and glad to have backed him e/w at huge price and little outlay for major returns.
#471
March 13th, 2010 13:34
and talking of mr.pointment he stays in and goes in the gold cup.preping heck!!!!!
#472
March 13th, 2010 14:55
Casey Jones still in Gold Cup. Yikes! Was hoping he would go for William Hill Trophy!
#473
March 13th, 2010 15:09
Blimy Showlad and I agree the same top six!
I am warming more and more to Hello Bud every week (+AS) that goes by after getting cold feet after Christmas (and taking into account some negative views of many on here). But I said that this year i will stick with my own gut feelings/work and the work of others and with his weight he must have a real chance if he can resist being in the top two/three early on.
(Message to Showlad – hope you watched the UK Eurovision last night – how silly of the public not to select the outstanding girl singer who was best by far!! OK song (very euro but lacks just a little somethinhg I cant define – the wow factor, I think) but with the male singer only 6th to 15th place material i think. Had the public selected the girl singer could have been as low as 4th-6th – but thats the UK enrty for you year after year – just not good enougth for top 3 place.)
Back in the public libraRy everyone – that new battery for my computer being sent for Hongkong (cant spell) and still a few days way.
#474
March 13th, 2010 15:17
Correction. Showlad has Erics Charm is his top six – I held onto Gone To Lunch (for the moment) but otherwise the same.
#475
March 13th, 2010 16:47
Okay folks, I’m ready. About to post my pre-Cheltenham conclusion to the great race and am feeling confident after recent news. To those that read my trend breakers guide a while ago I have utilised the same basis but instead of ignoring some flaws I have selected entries for the longlist based on my own scoring system. The stats are also updated but you’ll need to read the whole thing on my website to get the gist. What follows is also lifted from my site and my time is a bit too limited to edit it all for perfect consumption here. My apologies then for the third person point of view and several anomolies that fail to make sense in context. What is ultimately important is that you get my three tips for this year’s Grand National and I hope you enjoy the unorthodox ride. The very last section is slightly rushed due to my excitement at having got the rest done. In essence I could spout a lot and come to the same conclusion but maybe my debate should start here rather than end so I am content with the content (haha!). I do hope it is enjoyable to read for you.
Might take a few minutes to get it posted but it’s coming I promise.
#476
March 13th, 2010 17:04
Hey Mandie Thanks
Syetms – wise minds (hopefully lol!) think alike re Top 6.
Systems – off topic: UK song has far too much of the middle of the road blandness – we needed a killer SAW song like ‘better the devil you know’ whereas this is like a Steps B side. Nice but we won’t win and why didn’t they do an internal selection with a real pro like Lisa Stansfield etc with bags of experience and charisma and give them a few songs for the public to vote on?!! Big dissapointment from my very high expectations.
#477
March 13th, 2010 17:06
AND THE WINNER IS…
The road to bringing you The Rascal’s tip for the 2010 Aintree Grand National has been undeniably fraught – there have been twists, turns, sweat, tears, tantrums and despair. That metaphorical road has been long and wobbly and hardgoing, much like the race itself. In short, it has been difficult. Very difficult.
And yet, with just weeks to go until the big day (and the small matter of Cheltenham and a couple more forfeit stages to come) the waters are not so muddied. True to form, The Rascal has his antepost solution to the world’s greatest steeplechase and is ready to publish his thoughts with confidence.
For those that fancy an advance flutter on the National this page will hopefully give you some answers – the live bookmaker links will allow you to place your wager and receive bonuses and free bets to boot. Following them will also enable you to support this web site and ensure its longevity.
For those that have skirted the post-weights guide (how could you!) The Rascal will begin with a summary of the process and full details on the fifteen entries who have made the longlist. Then the real work begins – the super-analysis, so to speak – culminating in The Rascal’s inspired tip for the 2010 Aintree Grand National. Enjoy!
Summary
The 98 remaining entries have been whittled down to a longlist of 15 using The Rascal’s selected National trends to narrow the field. At each stage the primary threat going against the trends has been awarded the benefit of the doubt and elevated to the longlist for further examination.
Only five of the National hopefuls have survived unscathed in The Rascal’s analysis – namely CAN’T BUY TIME, ERIC’S CHARM, AIR FORCE ONE, SNOWY MORNING and KNOWHERE. Here’s how they stand with the other ten:
THE LONGLIST
Horse
Age
3M
£
Runs
Wins
WR
SR
SF
OR
BOV
KR
Class
Last Run
Last 3
RP (Rapscallion Points)
Eric’s Charm
12
5
21k
24
6
25%
50%
011
143
143 (+0)
28F Win
Place
35
011
11.50
Can’t Buy Time
8
4
31k
13
5
38.5%
61.5%
016
147
141 (+6)
32F Top Four
Win
35
016
11.33
Silver Birch
13
5 (1)
399k
19
5
26.3%
57.9%
26R2
139
138 (+1)
Ain (1st), Wel (1st)
Win
69
6R2
11.00
Beat The Boys
9
5
33k
15
6
40%
60%
1P1P
148
140 (+8)
None
Win
120
P1P
11.00
Madison Du Berlais
9
3
99k
37
10
27%
59.5%