This post has 742 comments

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  #1

  Daniel Edwards
  February 22nd, 2010 15:39

  There seems to be increasing numbers of people who think there is a significant chance it could be heavy ground this year. Personally I dont think you can predict accurately this early, but im prepared to run with the idea for now.

  What do people think are the best heavy ground pieces of form in the book for this years runners?

  Similarly, who do people think are the real heavy ground specialists. Im not talking a bit of cut here, im talking bottomless stuff.

  Tear the stats book up for a second (we saw in 2002 this means nothing when the conditions are extreme)

  Who do people think would benefit from a March monsoon?!

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  #2

  Daniel Edwards
  February 22nd, 2010 15:58

  To get the ball rolling;

  Arbor Supreme – 3rd in the Theystes on heavy ground. Probably his best piece of bare form.
  10 of his 19 career runs have come with heavy in the description (either sft.hy or just hy) so connections must think he enjoys it. He has placed in 5 and won an additional one of those 10 starts.
  He also seems to me to be a horse that will stay all day. And he has a 14lb swing in the weights with Priests Leap from that day.

  Chelsea Harbour – his last 5 wins have all come on sft/hy or hy ground (3 of them on heavy ground) He’s also come 2nd in a listed race over 22f this season on heavy ground. He too has a Theystes place on heavy ground.

  My concern with him has always been his jumping, but they would be going a lot slower if it was a bog and I would venture he is weighted to run well too, certainly compared to his last two appearances in the National.

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  #3

  Daniel Edwards
  February 22nd, 2010 16:01

  I should point out as well Arbor Supreme benefits from a 5lb pull with Chelsea Harbour as well for that Theystes run last year.

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  #4

  miinnehoma
  February 22nd, 2010 16:03

  crisp – I don’t have access to RPR’s so I don’t know if HB did or not, thats why I was asking.

  For ages I thought this RPR>OR thing was the best ever RPR but I see now it’s the best RPR in last 8 races. Do you know if Snowy is still on RPR152 and was that achived in last years GN or this season.

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  #5

  Nick Mannion
  February 22nd, 2010 16:14

  Good point Dan E. I have been monitoring the long now mid term forecast and it does suggest the North West will have a very wet early Spring.

  Maybe not as easy to pick one out to suit but at Haydock on Saturday (I was there) that was testing enough to tell us several who wouldn’t get half way…Hello Bud still being touted on stats lists yet I was within 10 yds when Sam TD was telling the lad ‘he didnt jump or go in the ground’ and (as a positive) young Danny Cook (Our Vic) said the old fella loved it and maybe they should have held him up…but I personally think the winner was something special.

  The French horse Louping D’Ainay has good form on the bog of Auteuil but no run since Nov 08 and no prep run as far as I know scheduled. Just out of interest I looked at the first 4 of the past ten years and took the mean average of the ratings. Not sure it will help much but here goes:

  00 MAR 133.5
  01 MAR 138.5
  02 MAR 145.5
  03 MAR 135.5
  04 MAR 138.5
  05 MAR 144
  06 MAR 143.5
  07 MAR 138
  08 MAR 142.5
  09 MAR 151 Overall ave rating of placed horses = 141

  Interestingly the bog of RM year (01) not the worse at all but the general trend has been one of improvement.

  Again for age of the 40 placed horses are

  7yo 0/40
  8yo 9/40
  9yo 13/40
  10yo 9/40
  11yo 7/40
  12yo 2/40

  That tends to make Tricky Trickster and other fancied 7yo’s a real trend bucker as it does for Hello Bud and other 12 yo’s.

  Has anyone heard about why DA was so poor as the 2nd and 3rd in the WN came out and ran brilliantly (winner) and ok (3rd) although the jock looked very disconsolate and was shaking his head as he jogged him back in.

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  #6

  Daniel Edwards
  February 22nd, 2010 16:19

  Maybe Nick you heard the jock say ‘he didnt go or jump well on the ground’

  as in he didnt like jumping on the ground??!!

  I agree that HB has no chance on heavy going, or even soft mind you.

  There’s no way you’ll convince me that horse didnt and doesnt jump well though, so given good ground come April, I wont be put off him.

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  #7

  Nick Mannion
  February 22nd, 2010 16:27

  Yep cant say I heard verbatim and as a youngster maybe STD was overkeen to do well so over exaggerate reasons for defeat but he was not impressed!

  The Waley-Cohen horse Roulez Cool is a Fr import and ran all its races on the vsf t to heavy of Auteuil and it looks good form…

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  #8

  Nick Mannion
  February 22nd, 2010 16:29

  But its a 7 yr old lol

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  #9

  crisp 73
  February 22nd, 2010 16:31

  Looking at the handicap chase runs- wins of the last 16 ‘nearly’ horses to see similarities/trends with the winners, to see what trends might have changed.

  Comply Or Die 11-1
  King Johns Castle 1-0
  McKelvey 9-2
  Hedgehunter 7-3
  Royal Auclair 14-2
  Clan Royal 13-5
  Supreme Glory 13-3
  Whats Up Boys 3-1
  Smarty 10-4
  Mely Moss 3-1
  Blue Charm 14-4
  Suny Bay 8-5
  Suny Bay 5-3
  Encore Un Peu 6-2
  Party Politics 16-5
  Just So 27-2

  15/16 winners ran in 6 or more, Miinnehoma the exception.
  12/16 runners up ran in 6 or more.

  Of the last 16 years winners and runners up only Bindaree and King Johns Castle failed to win a handicap chase. What did they have in common. They both ran in 15 chases or less overall and both had a win place chase strike rate of over 50% race day, Bindaree 53%, KJC 64%.

  5 of the last 16 winners and runners up ran in less than 6 handicap chases. Miinnehoma, Suny Bay(96), Mely Moss, Whats Up Boys, King Johns Castle. What did they have in common. All ran in 11 or less chases overall, and all had a win place chase strike rates on race day of Miinnehoma 78%, Suny Bay(96) 67%, Mely Moss 78%, Whats Up Boys 60%, KJC 64%.

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  #10

  Daniel Edwards
  February 22nd, 2010 16:36

  I mentioned on the other thread I would dig out the figures on the number of each age of horse to run in the last 10 years.

  Im afraid I dont appear to have updated it for the 2009 running, but working back 10 years from and including 2008, we have;

  AGE OF HORSE
  Number of runners
  Percentage of field

  8 year olds – 64 runners — 16.0%
  9 year olds – 108 runners – 27.0%
  10 year olds – 91 runners — 22.8%
  11 year olds – 68 runners — 17.0%
  12 year olds – 29 runners — 7.25%

  So, 10 year olds provide 3 times the runners that 12 year olds do, yet have provided 5 winners in the last 20 years, compared with 3 12 yo winners.

  There’s also only been 2 8yos to win in the last 20 years – the same number as 12yos, yet more than double the number of 8yos have run. So really, its 8yo’s that should get the bad press, not the 12 yos.

  I dont dispute that 9-10 year old is best, but rule out 12 year olds at your peril.

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  #11

  crisp 73
  February 22nd, 2010 16:50

  Miinnehoma, someone posted here, half day harry i think, that Snowy is RPR152 in last 8 chases. So his RPR>OR 5. I don’t think this is good enough. Needs to post something like an RPR154 I reckon. Party Politics managed with RPR>OR 5 but OR153, carried
  10-5, an 8yr old with the world at his feet, loads were out of the handicap and a much less competitve race. Still stats are broken … by the way are you still sniffing round Hello Bud, you the purveyor of good strike rates!!! His career win place s/r is low isn’t it, 34%. 8% lower than the previous lowest of recent times, Bobbyjo.

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  #12

  Daniel Edwards
  February 22nd, 2010 16:56

  I cant be dismissing Snowy Morning on the basis of him being 2 points out on a scale (which is subjective) that runs into the 100s…

  Not in a month of Sundays!

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  #13

  miinnehoma
  February 22nd, 2010 17:06

  crisp – no, I wrote-off HB some time ago. I was just checking your work on your list – which looks good. We can’t have the main trends man, the keeper of the archives, the John Wayne of stats shooting the wrong or right horse by mistake and taking us down the wrong path.

  Does anybody know what RPR snowy got for last years GN.

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  #14

  crisp 73
  February 22nd, 2010 17:08

  Daniel, totally agree with age observations. However I was looking at the last 5 GN’s where we’ve had all the runners in the handicap as we will probably get this year. All placed horses were aged
  8-10. Only 5 so not much data. People are saying GN is becoming like any other handicap and young progressive horses seem to win most handicaps.

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  #15

  Daniel Edwards
  February 22nd, 2010 17:16

  Sound logic Crisp – I think my comments were more aimed at previous assertions that backing 12yos in the national is the way to the poorhouse.

  There seems to have been a shit towards the 9-10yos in recent years. Will be interesting to see if it continues.

  I definately look for a 9-10 yo (as does my points system) just to be clear…but im never not going to back a horse just because he’s 12.

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  #16

  Daniel Edwards
  February 22nd, 2010 17:25

  So, coupling the placed stats for the past 10 years with the numbers of runners in the same day, you get;

  AGE – % of runners – % of placed horses – diff

  8yo – 16% — 22.5% – + 6.5%
  9yo – 27% — 32.5% – + 5.5%
  10yo – 23% – 22.5% – -0.5%
  11yo – 17% – 17.5% – +0.5%
  12yo – 7% — 5.0% — -2.0%

  So 8 and 9 year olds over achieve and, in the last ten years at least, 12 year olds slightly under achieve (although of course the difference between under and over achieving can be as little as one horse)

  I suppose this would suggest that the younger horses are on the up – we all say its hard for an 8 yo to win, but it seems they dont have much problem placing. Surely its just a matter of time therefore before we see more 8yos winning, or even, heaven forbid, the odd 7 yo??!

  No, no… I didnt mean that, I take it back!! Please, no 7 year old winner!

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  #17

  miinnehoma
  February 22nd, 2010 17:37

  Repeat Post – mind you I don’t know the age of the placed horses over the 5 yr period (1970-1974).

  Since 1957 there has been no run of more than 5 winners(age 8,9,10.) without an 11 or 12 yr. old winning.

  You would have said the same thing just before the 1975 GN because the last 5 winners were – 8,9,9,8,9 but who won in 1975 – yes a 12 yr. old

  We have now had 5 younger winners(9,10,10,9,9.) since Amberleigh House 12 yr. old. So I wonder have we a cracker this year aged 11 or 12. Maybe not ?

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  #18

  Nick Mannion
  February 22nd, 2010 17:45

  So Dan a projected first 4 of Tricky T, Possol, Roulez Cool and Le Beau Bai might have you offering yourself up on the Exchanges to take em on??lol

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  #19

  kj
  February 22nd, 2010 17:55

  So, looks like Madison is going for this race and not the bowl that he won last yr.
  This scenario is harder as would mean without any weights rising, previous winners for one, that are aiming at the GN, MM and COD could certainly top4 they love the course.

  Complys round the outside 5m+ style makes you more confident of no trouble, but with Pipe saying he may go straight there now, is fitness for the run in just going to mean a repeat last yr?!
  MM alone down the inside trouble free run is unrepeatable surely, but a weight baring sort.

  Only reason I won’t be backing TT (other than no value/ youthful inexperince) is the GC target! Couldn’t care less if 7yr olds haven’t won or placed, stats only go so far, I can’t name one class 7yr old horse I’ve really fancied to win before!

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  #20

  kj
  February 22nd, 2010 17:59

  plenty of good 8,11 and 12 yr olds. Waste of time tying yourself in knots about age. Due something different(again) or could be seeing a gradual change to younger horses!

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  #21

  Pablo
  February 22nd, 2010 18:01

  Crisp – we have had 3 placed 11 year olds in the past 5 years

  Past 5 Nationals

  Age; # placed runners; # runners; % runners placed
  6; 3; 0; 0%
  7; 10; 0; 0%
  8; 30; 4; 13%
  9; 56; 8; 14%
  10; 49; 5; 10%
  11; 35; 3; 9%
  12; 11; 0; 0%
  13; 5; 0; 0%
  14; 1; 0; 0%

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  #22

  Pablo
  February 22nd, 2010 18:03

  column headings wrong way round in middle!

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  #23

  Nick Mannion
  February 22nd, 2010 18:06

  Miinnehoma

  The only thing in common I can find about the 12 year old winners is that all bar 1 since 1961 had run in the prev years national and run well (Royal Athlete ran and fell in the void Nat 2 years before it won). Several of them (Red Rum , Team Spirit, L’Escargot, Little Polvier, Amberliegh H. were GN regulars).

  None of the 12 year olds likely to get a run this year come close to that limited and ancient trend!!

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  #24

  whitearab
  February 22nd, 2010 18:07

  Regards the questions on Hello Bud, I am getting to the point of thinking he won’t get a run. Number 70 on the initial declarations list is usually ok to get in. However, as has been commented elsewhere on the site, with the number of trainers indicating clear preferences to run their charges, I am struggling to see Hello Bud getting in and bottom weight being 10st 7lbs or even 10st 8lbs. Taking all of that into account, I think we need to think carefully about historic OR, RPR, weight carrying and other relevant trends. Quite conceivably, a horse like Comply or Die who has shown his clear liking for the course and distance may be giving up a maximum of 9 or 10 pounds to other horses. Probably worth trying to put the trends into a running order of reliability – for example I would stick with ruling out the 7 years olds, those older than 12, not won a chase over 24f etc. – but others need more consideration now I think.

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  #25

  Pablo
  February 22nd, 2010 18:16

  Think need to look more carefully at what’s behind the stats – last 2 years no >11+ in the frame – well it’s not surprising really…

  In 2008 only 5 runners aged >10 of which 2 carried top weight of 11’12

  In 2009 9 horses aged >10:

  Rambling Minster – trends pick but pulled up
  Knowhere – 11’7, dodgy breeding
  Silver Birch – previous winner now 12, no form since GN win
  Parsons Legacy – no run for 113 days, ground too soft
  Ollie Magern – 11’6
  Zabenz – no run for 2 years
  Eurotrek – no run for 2 years
  Kelami – only 2 preps, new stable, on the downgrade
  Fundamentalist – not good on trends

  A pretty bad bunch in 2009 with only Rambo considered on trends and as we know he disappointed

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  #26

  Neil S
  February 22nd, 2010 18:23

  Hi miinnehoma, snowy got a rating of 149 for finishing 30 lengths away in 9th place.

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  #27

  kj
  February 22nd, 2010 18:41

  having looked over the card, I don’t think 12yr olds that are likely to get in, are strong this yr.
  Would like to see Trust Fund line up with no weight being used to carrying 12-0.
  Agreed GN ‘ish’ experience seems essential too, and even then they’re battered GN/war horses

  Silver Birch went well for a 12yr old last yr. Out for 2yrs after winning it. Unlucky fall, but wouldn’t have won!

  Hedgehunter would have placed at 12, after poor prep/ health? and looking like a 20yr old before race! coming into contention when D’Argent smacked into him when falling. But wouldn’t have won!

  Amberleigh ran at speeds he never achieved as a young horse to win! oddity and training achievement.

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  #28

  miinnehoma
  February 22nd, 2010 18:47

  Nice one Neil S, many thanks for that info.

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  #29

  crisp 73
  February 22nd, 2010 19:30

  Sorry about the 8-10 yr old last 5 GN’s. I was looking at 1st, 2nd, 3rd but we’ve had Clan Royal,11, 3rd. I’ve been re-reading a lot of old and new stuff that’s been written about the way the race is changing and so on. I also found that in ’65, the field was condensed in to 11-6 top weight and 10-13 bottom weight. Don’t know if they were all in the handicap as it were, Mill House was withdrawn so some crazy rule came into play. Jay Trump won, 8yr old, followed home by another 8yr old and a 10 yr old.

  Looking at Snowy Morning again. Playing devils advocate. His only victory in 19 chases was a 12k, 21f chase last May. If he runs but doesn’t win again before this GN his biggest prize win will have been in his last 21 chases, Feb 07. Over three seasons ago. The last 19 winners had all picked up their biggest prize in their last 13 chases. Given that he was only beaten 10 lengths by Denman in RSA, levels, in March ’07, surely he should have been on to a good thing in ’08 when carrying 11-1, only 8lbs more than bottom weight? Has he already ran the best he can in the GN? What does everyone think?

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  #30

  crisp 73
  February 22nd, 2010 19:31

  That was 11-10 top weight, 10-13 bottom weight in ’65.Jay Trump had 11-5.

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  #31

  DomiDarko
  February 22nd, 2010 19:40

  I hope Snowy does win. I definitely think he will if they give him a full circuit head start and make all the other horses where clogs. I’m being silly now.

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  #32

  Ewok
  February 22nd, 2010 20:09

  Lots of Money for Maljimar today, looks like he has halved in price to 44.0

  Any ideas why anyone? I think he’s a decent each way bet but hard to see him winning.

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  #33

  Maureen
  February 22nd, 2010 20:21

  If I haven’t backed them already [and the way I'm going I probably will have] I shall still back every 9 and 10 year old carrying 11st or less on the day! I still keep going back to Snowy Morning who was my original fancy right from the start. However, I keep seeing pictures of Mon Mome jumping for fun with ears pricked last year and wondering if he just happens to be a Grand National wonderhorse! Closer to the day I’m going to try to categorise horses more eg horses laid out for the race [SoP, Cane Brake, Character Building]; horses well handicapped..[know more after Cheltenham]. Then there’s horses like Gone to Lunch who I really fancied at the start of the season but have shown little form this year. Beginning to think that I’ll just have to give up on finding the winner and just look forward to a totally fascinating race [and hope I don't lose too much1].

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  #34

  Jackie
  February 22nd, 2010 20:51

  Maljimar not won 3m, caught on line a couple times, taken part in longer races, but not won any. Anyone else any other ideas? RP doesn’t have any entries for him either.

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  #35

  Speedyseagull
  February 22nd, 2010 20:59

  He was my 6 pointer in our tips table so I guess I should give some info. The problem is that I can’t really as I just have a gut feeling about him! A classy horse that is well weighted. Always travels well and, on several occasions, has stayed on to finish close. Sometimes he flatters to deceive and comes challenging on the bridle but doesn’t find much. However, I think he is worth a punt. Trainer was absolutely gutted when he was first reserve last year and has said Aintree is the target. Decent form over 3m2f without winning, decent going left handed, decent form in bigger fields. Decent really.

  The main problems are his jumping is OK at best, and he hasn’t raced for a while. If he doesn’t run before Aintree then I will be laying him off

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  #36

  Speedyseagull
  February 22nd, 2010 21:09

  Looks like he is going straight to Aintree. This is from today:

  Nick Williams is keeping his fingers crossed Maljimar makes the cut for this year’s Aintree spectacular having missed out when first reserve last year.

  The 10-year-old was third over the cross-country fences at Cheltenham in December and now heads straight for Liverpool on April 10.

  “He ran a cracker at the Cheltenham Festival last year (second in William Hill Trophy) but because of that race he didn’t run very well at Aintree at the Grand National meeting,” Williams told At The Races.

  “That is why we’re avoiding Cheltenham this year and it’s full steam ahead to Aintree.

  “He’s been off since December but that’s not going to matter to him as he’s a good horse fresh and that will be to his advantage.

  “He’s 61st in the list and I’m told that he’s guaranteed to get in, but I’m not sure where the cut is going to come this year.

  “It would be frustrating if he missed it for the second year running and he only missed it by one last year.”

  This has put me off. I don’t care how much trainers say that their horses go well fresh, I just can’t back one who hasn’t run for 5-6 months. That is also the reason why I am going nowhere near State of Play. Annoying but at least I have some good ante-post money on Maljimar just in case!

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  #37

  Jackie
  February 22nd, 2010 21:11

  There was a post on here re a decent hold up horse, were people looking for them, can quite remember, anyhow, he appears to be one ridden from the rear.

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  #38

  Jackie
  February 22nd, 2010 21:14

  Sorry speedyseagull did not see your post before I wrote mine.

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  #39

  Speedyseagull
  February 22nd, 2010 21:14

  Yep, he tends to cruise through the field and then often finds nothing if he hits the front too soon. This has happened a lot at Cheltenham so maybe he just doesn’t handle the hill.

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  #40

  john
  February 22nd, 2010 21:17

  somebody mentioned Madjamer on the bbc 606 forum today so it might have come from somewhere

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  #41

  Neil S
  February 22nd, 2010 21:30

  Right then, done a bit of number cruching here and been strict with the data.

  Data 1 Age (8-12)
  Data 2 Weight (I use a limit of 11-05 takes care of those occasional winners above 11 stone)
  Data 3 OR range (157-136) same reason as above
  Data 4 Stamina must have won over 26 furlongs
  Data 5 Big Field pattern, must be in first three in a chase of 13 or more runners
  Data 6 No more than 1 fall in entire chasing career (UR,PU,BD, RO ETCETERA DOESN’T COUNT. )
  Data 7 Most be experience chase (prefer third season chaser to 10+ runs.)
  Data 8 Trial races( last year’s race, Galway Plate, Kerry National, Muster National, Servo Handicap, Paddy Power, Becher Chase, Hennessy, London National, Neptune Chase, Irish Paddy Power, Welsh National, Peter Marsh.

  Here’s my list.
  Niche Market
  Cloudy Lane
  Dream Alliance
  My Will
  War Of Attrition
  Darkness
  State Of Play
  Irish Raptor
  Hello Bud

  Plus

  Comply Or Die
  Beat The Boys
  Knowhere

  Some of these are so low as they won’t make the cut.

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  #42

  kj
  February 22nd, 2010 21:40

  ‘madjamer’ funny housewife name for a horse,.. will he catch this ‘Ticky’ Trickster! someone spoke of, as Gone to Lunch has indeed gone for a spot of lunch after spotting this mad jam, tasty.

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  #43

  whitearab
  February 22nd, 2010 22:00

  Useful data list Neil S, thanks.

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  #44

  Neil S
  February 22nd, 2010 22:32

  Got the list of trial races from the dates for your dairy section of this blog (thanks admin, Darren ).

  It amazes me in both jumps and flat how important key races are. I think the reason could be trainers train of thought.

  Have tried to find other trial races, but keep coming back to these.

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  #45

  Showlad
  February 22nd, 2010 22:36

  Fascinating re age breakdowns and successes Daniel, thanks. Shows trend is with 9 and 10 year olds but 12 year olds absolutely cannot be discounted readily.
  Re cut I cannot see AT ALL that so called runner ‘pledges’ will see big change. Should still be 70ish for cut.
  Re weather does anyone join me in putting NO STOCK AT ALL in projected ‘wet’ GN – last year was all the rage and it didn’t materialise. Crikey look how wrong this winter’s projections were and, in the last decade or so of mild winters that were projected to be worst ever etc.
  Will only take real notice of weather couple of weeks before.
  Re Dream I see trainer has said he can be in and out – that’s just him and that Saturday was a defo out. Still, lol, rather have his ‘out’ on Saturday than on April 10th, lol. DA is defo still in with a shout.

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  #46

  Neil S
  February 22nd, 2010 22:58

  Showlad, 1 bad run can usually be forgiven. However easily said than done if some of your money was riding on it. I say this from personal experience.

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  #47

  Pablo
  February 22nd, 2010 23:07

  Jim Dreaper has virtually ruled out the totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup for Notre Pere following a disappointing effort at Fairyhouse on Saturday.

  Last season’s Welsh National and Guinness Gold Cup victor was beaten when unseating his rider at the final fence in the Bobbyjo Chase.

  The County Dublin trainer believes the nine-year-old needs more time between his races and he will aim him at either the Powers Whiskey Irish National at Fairyhouse on April 5 or the John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree five days later.

  “He will not be asked to run again within three weeks of his previous run. I’d say that was possibly the mistake,” said Dreaper.

  “There are certain things you can only find out in a race situation.

  “We’ll freshen him up and he’ll run again, but I would say it’s almost certain he won’t run in the Gold Cup. That’s within three weeks, so he will probably run in either the English National or the Irish one.

  “As long as the ground is not too quick and providing he seems OK, he’ll run in one of those.”

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  #48

  Pablo
  February 22nd, 2010 23:07

  …from sportinglife.com

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  #49

  miinnehoma
  February 22nd, 2010 23:48

  crisp 73 –
  I’m sure your looking for other opinions but here’s mind anyway.

  I have had the same thoughts re- Snowy but since his 3rd. in the GN ’08 with 11.01 he has run in 12 chases, mostly G1 and G2 on crap ground, except for Gold Cup Punch ’08 2nd. and the GN – which he carried 11.08.
  Because he was 2nd. to Denman in RSA they thought he was Gold Cup class and so didn’t run him in Hcaps but ran him in races like the Lexus and Irish Hennessy (3rd.). But this has showed that he’s not in this class and so no big pot wins.

  He has run 28 races in his life with 20 (1st./2nd./3rd.) and only 2 falls.
  He was only 8 yrs. old when 3rd. beaten 5L. in ’08 GN with 11.01 giving 6Lbs to COD, which looks even better with his 2nd. last yr.

  Remember Hedge Hunter fell at the last with 10.12 as an 8 yr. old and won with 11.01 as a 9 yr. old. Snowy had 11.08, a 11.08 last yr, was only a few lenghts off COD/MM at the last fence and halfway up before the elbow, until wt. and lack of prep runs told. He had only 4 (89f.)prep runs last yr. and 5 (95f.)the first yr.

  In the last few days I have looked back, stat wise, with our new stats, why he hasn’t won.

  First year – F1133
  1 – 8 yrs. old with 11.01- big wt. for a wee lad
  2 – only 9 chases but had 3 wins
  3 – no key race form
  3 – no 30/30 stat
  4 – Hcaps 1-0
  5 – 5 prep runs but only 95f.
  All other stats OK including won 1 of his last 10 chases. Casey had him all over the shop and hit the last. So 3rd. with 11.01 as 8 yr old was mighty and better than Hedge Hunters first attempt.

  Second year – 56F2
  1 – wt. 11.08 – huge wt.
  2 – no real 30/30 stat but now in extended one
  3 – Hcaps 2-0
  4 – By 31st Dec.- no win in last 10 chases.
  5 – By race day – no win in last 10 chases
  6 – 4 prep runs but only 89f.
  All other stats OK.

  This year why he might win – 11/8322

  Mullins said, Snowy is running races as short as 17f. this year because he thought he was bored at 3 miles on crap ground and this should give him a boost and also help his speed. He said he would run him in grade 2 races to pick up some prize money.

  He’s now 10 and should have more stamina. Has 4 (85f.) prep runs already not counting the 2 in May.
  1 – wt. 10.13 – mighty, lowest in 3yrs.
  2 – Hcaps 4-0 (miinnehoma had 4-1, Bindaree had 7-0 – door open)
  3 – By 31st. Dec. has won 1 of his last 10 chases
  4 – By GN day has won 1 of his last 10 chases
  5 – Top 3 chase place this season
  6 – Top 3 in any of last 3 races by race day
  7 – In extended 30/30 stat with 3rd. in GN
  8 – 16/20 had a 1st. or 2nd. at this stage
  9 – Ok, price won’t make him win but 29/1 with Betfair and Paddy P. has him now at 20/1
  10- key life races – 3rd/9th GN, 8th. Hennessy,
  3rd. Irish Hen. and 2nd. GC Punch. Not bad for a poor jumper.

  All other stats and s/r’s OK except 2/3 Hcap chase wins or 20% chase win s/r.
  Snowy needs another chase win of any type to match this.
  Maybe he could win the Ryanair on the way – have him backed at 200/1.

• 
  

  #50

  Me6
  February 23rd, 2010 00:34

  Referring back to the first post in this thread, I’m fairly sure that Mullins has written that Arbor Supreme would need better ground, to help his jumping.
  Absolute bog would suit the topweight Notre Pere.
  Parsons Pistol would run for Meade instead of Casey Jones.
  Preists Leap?
  If it was known in advance that it would be a bog, then some of the Good ground performers wouldn’t run, meaning that the horses in the 140-138 range would get a run.
  This would bring Flintoff and Whinstone Boy in.
  This is not a comprehensive list of heavy ground performers.

• 
  

  #51

  miinnehoma
  February 23rd, 2010 02:25

  Eric’s Charm 12 yr. old, GN 10.09 –
  He’s out of RP chase but in the Eider 27th. Feb. So at last, one more chance of showing us his left-hand form and making that RPR141 min. He ran a cracker up front in the ’08 Eider race(COD winner) until 5 out with 11.07, ok he PU.

  Halcon is top OR150(11.12) and then Eric next on OR143 maybe(11.05) – still a big wt.

• 
  

  #52

  Daniel Edwards
  February 23rd, 2010 08:49

  Me6 – would be interesting if you could find that Arbor Supreme quote.

  Yes a bog would suit Notre Pere, but I think that would be cancelled out by the fact he has top weight, which is all the harder on heavy ground.

  Agreed also that a bog would bring Whinestone Boy into consideration, as he would be more likely to make the cut.

• 
  

  #53

  Daniel Edwards
  February 23rd, 2010 09:13

  Nick – ive been laying 7 and 13 year olds for a place for the past 2 years, and will do it again this year.

  I havent quite got the confidence to lay them all for the win yet!

• 
  

  #54

  The Stayer
  February 23rd, 2010 09:37

  I can’t remember the actual quote but i’m pretty sure that Willie Mullins said that Arbor Supreme is better on good ground. I guess the fact that most of his form is on heavy ground is more a reflection that the ground in Ireland is seemingly testing for most of the winter. Arguably his best run was at the 2008 Punchestown Festival (good) when he beat Black Apalachi over 30f:

  “In rear of mid-division, closed from 5 out, tracked leaders from next, 4th travelling well when mistake 2 out, challenged and disputed lead last, soon in front and went clear, COMFORTABLY”

• 
  

  #55

  Daniel Edwards
  February 23rd, 2010 09:47

  Fair point, but I guess I was concerned by his below par run in the Irish on good ground

  It seems obvious to me that he handles heavy ground as well though, which makes him a decent (in theory) antepost bet I guess.

• 
  

  #56

  Showlad
  February 23rd, 2010 09:49

  Agreed team total void of Arbor info – Gold Star to whoever gets info – why doesn’t someone email trainer?

• 
  

  #57

  The Stayer
  February 23rd, 2010 10:01

  His Irish National run was disappointing at face value but he was never really put into the race that day. Part of a grand master-plan?

  I’m hoping (and this may be controversial) that A P picks Don’t Push It or King John’s Castle because the way he fires horses into fences is a bit of a liability at Aintree. Slippers Madden who has ridden Arbor Supreme in the past gave Numbersixvalverde a great waiting ride in the race a few years ago. I would like to see him or Paul Carberry on board Arbor Supreme.

• 
  

  #58

  Daniel Edwards
  February 23rd, 2010 10:05

  Given that Arbor Supreme looks liked an absolute nailed on stayer to me, I would be happy for him to be given a ride by somebody who is prepared to take him the long way round and keep him out of trouble circa Timmy Murphy – Comply or Die – 2008

• 
  

  #59

  crisp 73
  February 23rd, 2010 10:09

  Miinnehoma, probably back Eric’s Charm on Saturday just in case,if he wins/places in Eider he’d surely get decent left hand RPR, then put winnings on him for GN. Already got a little bit e/w 100/1 for GN. Thanks for post about Snowy Morning. Extend ’30/30 top5 Hennessy etc’ stat for one horse! Heresy. He’s a wild card, though may be a winning one.

  The last 5 horses to win the GN at the third or more attempt were;
  Highland Wedding- won 3 Eiders
  Red Rum – won Scottish National, 2nd Hennessy
  L’escargot – won 2 gold cups, 2nd in Irish National, 2nd in Grand Sefton(GN fences)
  Little Polveir – won Scottish National
  Amberleigh House – won Becher and 2nd twice
  Even discounting previous GN runs they had impressive CV’s and had won at 27f or more.

  Found another with good 1 year before stats, ‘wild card’ Kilcrea Castle. Already had two top3 C1 chase places at 24f. A 75% win place strike rate 1 year before, thats now 80%. Not won beyond 20f yet. Only 2 chase wins, 4 handicap chase runs, 1 win. RPR>OR 9. Placed at furthest distance ran,25f. Probably needs another chase win,24f or more, C1. Only 24f win so far was in point to point. One to watch on Saturday. Imagine it’s profile with Racing Post winner on it and running in GN off OR142.

  A; Comply Or Die, My Will, Gone To Lunch, Character Building, Mr Pointment, Iris De Balme, Hello Bud, Parsons Legacy.

  C;War Of Attrition, Beat The Boys, Snowy Morning, Kilcrea Castle, Parsons Pistol

• 
  

  #60

  Pablo
  February 23rd, 2010 10:12

  Willie Mullins from RP before 2009 Thyestes run on Heavy ground

  “Arbor Supreme is in very good form. He stays well and goes on the ground, but the stats are against him as horses carrying more than 11st have quite a poor record.”

  On weights day:

  “Arbor Supreme (10st 8lb) has a good chance. He will love the ground, has a lovely weight and is a nice age. He wouldn’t want the ground soft as he can’t jump out of it.”

  Make of that what you will…

• 
  

  #61

  The Stayer
  February 23rd, 2010 10:17

  Good work Pablo. In Ireland a horse really HAS to go on heavy ground because the going is like that for much of the season. I think this horse is better on a sound surface though.

• 
  

  #62

  Jackie
  February 23rd, 2010 10:18

  I too hope AP doesn’t pick AS, he wants the gn so bad, i feel he rushes his mounts too much, just my opinion.

• 
  

  #63

  Daniel Edwards
  February 23rd, 2010 10:28

  Crisp – Not kncoking your input at all, but this ‘working backwards’ reasoning to show why a previous winner won despite being seemingly the wrong age etc doesnt quite sit right with me.

  In this case, for horses winning at the 3rd attempt, if SM does win, the list above will just become;

  The last 6 horses to win the GN at the third or more attempt were;

  Highland Wedding- won 3 Eiders
  Red Rum – won Scottish National, 2nd Hennessy
  L’escargot – won 2 gold cups, 2nd in Irish National, 2nd in Grand Sefton(GN fences)
  Little Polveir – won Scottish National
  Amberleigh House – won Becher and 2nd twice
  Snowy Morning – 3rd in National off 4lbs higher, 2nd in Sun Alliance and Bobbyjo.

  Do you see what im getting at? Surely Snowy Morning’s 3rd is as good (if not better) an indicator than 3 Eider wins.

• 
  

  #64

  Pablo
  February 23rd, 2010 10:34

  “Arbor Supreme wants better ground and he was trailing towards the back when he clobbered two out and sent Tony McCoy crashing to the ground.”

  RP race report for Thyestes this year

  I agree I think the usual well-watered G or GS at Aintree should suit

  What’s Up Boys and Supreme Glory both sired by Supreme Leader and came 2nd in the race on G

• 
  

  #65

  crisp 73
  February 23rd, 2010 10:58

  Daniel, do you see what I’m getting at? Those five horses listed all did well in races that are arguably very good National trials.
  Why is Snowy Morning’s 3rd in ’08 a good indicator? Simply Gifted finished 3rd in a GN. Snowy’s 2nd in that or this is exactly the point I’m making. What does he win? What proven National trials has he done well in? His 2nd to Denman in RSA I think should have made him a good thing in ’08 with 11-1 OR145. If he couldn’t do it then, why is he going to do it now? Do you think that perhaps winning a 36F chase, could be a little bit beyond him? Should I just keep quiet and not rock the boat?

  I agree stats and trends are no way 100% going to show what’s gong to win but you yourself are using trends on your points system, are you not? So you are working backwards. Looking at previous winners profiles. That’s working backwards. Why give marks to horses that have won at 24f when looking at the GN? Because you are following trends that suggest horses that have done well over 24f or more do well in the GN. That’s working backwards. Why give marks to horses that have performed in C1 chases? Because you are using trends. That’s working backwards. Your knocking off points for a Cheltenham run – looking back at what previous winners have done, that’s working backwards, doesnt sit well with me and given that a third of the last 30 odd winners ran at Cheltenham seems totally irrational, but that’s your business. It’s quite funny that you knock working backwards but are using it yourself but seem to be in some sort of denial about it. Shall I set up some sort of ‘trends anonymous’?

• 
  

  #66

  Jackie
  February 23rd, 2010 11:08

  With the Cheltenham stat is it more to the point that horses that win at C then don’t tend to go on and perform well at gn? Or is that a coincidence stat?

• 
  

  #67

  whitearab
  February 23rd, 2010 11:21

  I think if we are all totally honest we would admit to having fancies that we are pleased the trends through up and take issue with others. I have not done any trend analysis in detail for this year as I think we need to revisit a number, particularly around weight but I do like Snowy Morning. Can I understand why some folks don’t – yes, totally. Can I understand why quite a few do, absolutely. Trends only take you so far and then you have to make a judgement on other factors. Although Mon Mome met a lot of the stats last year, I could not have backed him given his last couple of runs before the National. This year, I’ll be a bit more open minded on that score!

• 
  

  #68

  Neil S
  February 23rd, 2010 12:45

  Hi all, you know I’ve been number crunching and the list that was produced are mostly over 11stone or not ran in a long time, or won’t make the cut, etcetera.
  Well I think the winner is there too but to double check my theory I want other people’s honest opinion on IRISH RAPTOR. Also how does he fair on the 30/30 stat.

  Thanking you in advance.

• 
  

  #69

  The Stayer
  February 23rd, 2010 12:49

  Irish Raptor isn’t good enough for this race as his class 1 chase record will show you. Won’t stay the trip either.

• 
  

  #70

  Pablo
  February 23rd, 2010 12:52

  72 runners direct from Cheltenham Festival last 5 years

  1 win Silver Birch (best RPR at Cheltenham Festival)

  6 places
  Royal Auclair (equalled RPR best)
  Simply Gifted(equalled RPR best)
  Hedgehunter (RPR best)
  Slim Pickings (RPR best)
  Comply Or Die (Season’s best RPR, but 18 lb below previous best)
  My Will (RPR best)

  That’s below average % winners and placed runners (it does get better if you go back further)

  All 7 named above performed very well at Cheltenham

  For me I see Cheltenham currently as a negative, but any good performance will get points from other factors and therefore offset the negative

  As Whitearab alludes to, surely the whole point is that everyone uses different trends (or coincidences) in different ways to suit their own instincts, needs, for reassurance on antepost bets, to back up their judgement etc?

  There is:
  1) No definitive list of trends so get over it
  2) This is a forum – if we all agreed what’s the point?

  Irish horses were a negative for nearly 25 years until Bobbyjo rode into town (5 subsequent Irish winners in next decade)

  Bindaree had never won a handicap (unique for years)

  Red Marauder had never won over 3m in a chase (unique for years)

  COD was wearing headgear and that was supposed to indicate a horse with a dodgy temperament – now BA and VV and COD all in headgear

  Mon Mome was French-bred (Backstage and Possol up in the betting)

  …and the list will go on (just like I have been)

• 
  

  #71

  Daniel Edwards
  February 23rd, 2010 13:47

  Crisp

  “Daniel, do you see what I’m getting at?” – Of course I do!! Its a very valid point, im just countering with what I think was a valid one.

  “If he couldn’t do it then, why is he going to do it now?” Lack of a horse (or two) better than him, 2 years older/stronger/fitter…Nobody gave Mon Mome a hope last year off a HIGHER mark than when he came down the field the previous year.

  “Should I just keep quiet and not rock the boat? ” – Hell no!! We all come on here to debate the merits of the horses. How dull would it be if we all agreed.

  My point was that IF SM did win, then we would all just say, well he had come 3rd previously.

  I totally understand where you are coming from that SM doesnt quite sit right with you. As ive said before, he doesnt sit perfectly with me either, but id rather have him running for me than against me.

  re ‘working backwards’ im the first to admit the stats/trends approach is working backwards (see my post the other day) My point was that I think by trying to justify after the event why a horse won despite having something against him (in this case his 3rd GN run) we could rule out an otherwise worthy candidate.

  I certianly didnt mean to come across as sounding righteous or to be slating your work – I certainly wasn’t. Dont tell the others, but I think I rate your opinions and post above all others.

  friends??!

• 
  

  #72

  Pablo
  February 23rd, 2010 13:50

  “That’s below average % winners and placed runners (it does get better if you go back further)”

  That’s not quite correct I’ll expand on that later on when I get some time

• 
  

  #73

  Pablo
  February 23rd, 2010 13:53

  DE “But I think I rate your (Crisp’s) opinions and post above all others”

  Seconded

• 
  

  #74

  Pablo
  February 23rd, 2010 13:53

  …although I don’t always agree with them!

• 
  

  #75

  Daniel Edwards
  February 23rd, 2010 13:55

  It’s actually almost exactly on average!!!

  7 placed horses out of 20 in the past 5 years is 35%.

  72 runners out of the 200 in the past 5 years is 36%.

• 
  

  #76

  Showlad
  February 23rd, 2010 14:26

  Arbor and Snowy entered at Leopardstown 3.15 this Sunday

• 
  

  #77

  Nick Mannion
  February 23rd, 2010 14:34

  IDB in the Eider on Sat still.

  Noted the Racing Post view on Kilcrea Castle. I hadnt realised was Irish horse till Nov and it fits perfectly the profile of the past 5 Irish winners (138-144) and has its best form on heavy or near as…yup still sticking with the Met Office and their prediction for a wet one this year…

  Def one to watch Saturday in the RP chase…

• 
  

  #78

  Daniel Edwards
  February 23rd, 2010 14:58

  IDB is the one who has me awake at night.

  He is without doubt weighted to run well on the basis of his two runs at the tailend of the 2008 season….but is that enough? he was 66/1 when he won the Scots National – has he improved that much to win that race at such crazy odds (and from whatever ridiculous amount he was out of the handicap) or was it a fluke, given that he hasnt even mixed it in that sort of company apart from those two runs in April 08??

  Is he reliant on good ground?

  Does he jump well enough?

  So many questions…somebody help me!

• 
  

  #79

  Showlad
  February 23rd, 2010 15:41

  …and as if by magic Daniel, Iris is Aintree bound..:

  Sean Curran is keen to run his stable star Iris De Balme in the marathon contest.

  The 2008 Scottish National winner was a fine fifth over hurdles at Wetherby earlier this month on his first start in almost two years and Curran is hoping he will make the cut for the Grand National at Aintree in April.

  “The plan is for him to go to Newcastle,” said Curran. “I was very pleased with his run at Wetherby. He actually jumped into the race at two out, but was then maybe just a bit ring-rusty at the end.

  “He’s come on leaps and bounds since then, so hopefully he’ll run well at the weekend. His better performances have come on better ground, but he’s run well enough on soft before. He’ll then head straight to Aintree if he gets in.

  “It’s such a tight race this year so it’s hard to know whether he’ll get in or not, but we’ll give him entries in the Scottish National again and the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown as a precaution.”

• 
  

  #80

  Systemsman
  February 23rd, 2010 15:51

  Just been having a lastl ook at Cane Brake before placing my anti-post bet today.It may be wishful thinking on my part but I think he cleary did not want to win his last C1 race (his only chaee this year) – was doing very well till half way and if he had won it would have blown his mark for the GN. Running in hurdles mostly this year shows he is clearly aimded big time for a one off shot at the GN. The sort of horse who coud pull out one last big win and has the class and weight to do just that. Price a big big (but not too big)but it makes that anti-post bet very cheap.

  On another front and at the ridk of repeating myself, and it affects CB, I think within two years the 30/30 stat will change (by a future GN winner)) to also include a top 3 in the GN itself or a top 5 in the Gold Cup (fits CB).

  Is all this wishful thinking on my part? – he appears in most lists somewhere? Anway he’s in my portfolio of runners now – one i want on my side like SM. Unless he’s injured he should run and will be prepared with the aim of winning.

• 
  

  #81

  Daniel Edwards
  February 23rd, 2010 15:53

  blast!!

  Really if he wants to have a realistic chance at Aintree, he needs to be at least challening for the win come Saturday?

  If it wasnt for the fact he has been off the track for so long, I would say he would need to be winning, but I think a decent top 3, being in with a chance at the final fence, would be a good result given his time off.

• 
  

  #82

  Systemsman
  February 23rd, 2010 15:55

  “Arbor and Snowy entered at Leopardstown 3.15 this Sunday”

  Please no snow at Leopardstwon! They both need this run and no excuses for AS this time – I still beleve that AS could be one of the best bets for the GN and this race will tell us one way or another.

• 
  

  #83

  The Stayer
  February 23rd, 2010 16:02

  Daniel,

  I don’t think Iris De Balme’s Scottish National win was a fluke, as he showed when a close-up and staying-on 4th in the Bet365 just a week later.

  If you look at his career in France most of it was spent running over 16f-20f on soft or heavy ground, which wouldn’t suit him. He took a few runs to settle in over here but the step up in distance and better ground brought about a massive improvement and even before Ayr he had won over 31f so the signs were there that he appreciated a trip on good ground.

  I thought his first run for around 700 days was very encouraging as he travelled really well before fading at the end. He should come on for that and the Eider would be an obvious target. It will be interesting to see how he fares as the ground will be testing and if Halcon Genelardais doesn’t run he will have 11-9 to lump round.

  I like this horse. He should get the trip, handles big fields and appreciates decent ground. I really hope he gets a run at Aintree.

• 
  

  #84

  miinnehoma
  February 23rd, 2010 16:06

  crisp says -
  Thanks for post about Snowy Morning. Extend ‘30/30 top5 Hennessy etc’ stat for one horse! Heresy. He’s a wild card, though may be a winning one.

  Blimey crisp you could knock me down with a feather after that statement. I would have put a million pounds on, that you agreed with Showlad, TC and others that the 30/30 stat should be extended to include top 3/4 in the GN and top 5/6 in the Gold Cup. I thought I was the only bad boy fighting against that. My mistake then. Well you learn something new every day.

• 
  

  #85

  Daniel Edwards
  February 23rd, 2010 16:08

  I guess Saturday will tell us more Showlad.

  I didnt think it was a fluke by the way, I was just asking the question as to what others thought.

  Systemsman – im not sure a 2m4f chase will tell us much about AS or SM that we dont already know. Looks to me like Mr Mullins just wants to get a light prep run into each of them before tucking them away until Aintree, maybe.

• 
  

  #86

  Showlad
  February 23rd, 2010 16:09

  Stayer I take it you meant ‘no fluke’ lol

• 
  

  #87

  Showlad
  February 23rd, 2010 16:13

  The 30/30 stat cannot extend further down the placings in the inadequacies of the Scots, Irish and Welsh Nats than it does to the GN itself – this would be crackers!
  I say it should reach further down than the other Nats eg Top 4 in GN itself – how on earth could it not?
  Absolutely no test like the test itself and to profess otherwise is absolute folly.
  Oooo-er missus!!

• 
  

  #88

  Daniel Edwards
  February 23rd, 2010 16:16

  Sorry – I said showlad in my last comment when I meant Stayer.

  IDB would go up 3.00 points on my points table and into 4th place just behind Hello Bud if he were to win on Saturday!!

• 
  

  #89

  whitearab
  February 23rd, 2010 16:18

  Daniel – I think the simplistic approach to take with IDB is to assume he won’t get into the race and get yourself a good night’s sleep! I agree that old shark Mullins has been lining Snowy up for the national for a good long while. I am not saying he will win or even run well but I think he is now the ideal age for the race and is well weighted. Although he ran a blinder first time in the National, I think Mullins realised a while back the horse was not progressing anything like his RSA conqueror Denman and is more of a stayer. Problem being he has taken 2 yaers getting his Aintree mark down to a sensible level.

• 
  

  #90

  Daniel Edwards
  February 23rd, 2010 16:20

  haha – whiterab I may well take you up on that advice.

  Problem is he is only one below one of my faves and biggest winners (profit wise I mean) in Hello Bud!!

  Id take them both not being in the race though and take my chances with the others one on my side I think!!

• 
  

  #91

  Showlad
  February 23rd, 2010 16:48

  Next forfeit stage is this coming Tuesday
  Hopefully some niggles may be cleared up. I wouldn’t be surprised if GTL withdrawn.
  Curious to see how many will come out.
  Remember last year it was hardly any withdrawals at the first stage, strangley, then it snowballed after that at next stages.
  Yes Systemsman let’s hope Arbor and Snowy get a run this Sunday.

• 
  

  #92

  Daniel Edwards
  February 23rd, 2010 16:51

  I would guess it wouldnt go far below 100, maybe 95.

  Definately could be one or two antepost tickets being ripped to shreds!

• 
  

  #93

  Pablo
  February 23rd, 2010 17:07

  I think it’s very difficult to judge IDB’s form …

  Both his race in the Scottish and in the Whitbread had a skewed shape – one or two big weight carriers and the rest on low weights (similar to when Bobbyjo won the National from 14 lb ooh)

  Personally I wouldn’t take the form on trust until I’d seen him again in action over fences.

  Even if he gets in he’ll be running against a better field than ever before, yet on the plus side he is a proven stayer (but you don’t have to have won over 4 miles to win the National – in fact COD is the only one to have done so in the past 11 years).

  I am still to be convinced he will be good enough to win (does he have the class?).

  But then if he hacks up in Eider I might change my mind…

• 
  

  #94

  Gammers
  February 23rd, 2010 17:07

  The interesting one will be War of Attrition – if he’s left in, then we will know that Mouse has come to his senses.

  Other than that, I wouldn’t expect much from the first forfeits, of more interest will be 2nd forfeit stage on 23rd March after all the prep runs will have been completed (assuming no serious GN entrant will run later than the Midlands Nat on the 20th).

• 
  

  #95

  DomiDarko
  February 23rd, 2010 17:11

  I’ve been looking closely at Snowy Mornings race record on the Racing Post site to try and boost my confidence in him and its quite interesting.
  Apart from very early on in his career he has only run on good ground 4 times out of 21 races since coming 2nd to Denman in the RSA in March 2007.
  Those runs are listed below:

  Apr 2007
  Ellier Developments Hanover Quay Champion Novice Chase (Grade 1)
  RESULT – 4th to Offshore Account (distance) with Vic Venturi PU. Snowy has finished ahead of VV many times in the past.

  Feb 2008
  At The Races Bobbyjo Chase (Grade 2)
  RESULT – 3rd to afistfullofdollars, 3L behind Hedgehunter while carrying 5lb more. Again, 12L ahead of Vic Venturi.

  Apr 2008
  John Smith’s Grand National Chase (Handicap) Grade 3
  RESULT – 3rd to Comply or Die 5L while carrying 6lb more.

  Apr 2008
  Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup (Chase) (Grade 1)
  RESULT – 2nd to Neptune Collonges 7L on level terms.

  He has put in some great efforts on heavier ground but seems much better on good. Has he just been unlucky as he has run an awful lot in bad conditions? 6 times/heavy, 8 times/soft, 3 times/gs.

  Also, his bad run in the Hennessey was his first run for over 6 months, since then the canny old fox Willie Mullins has been sharpening him up over shorter distances to make sure he is primed.
  He seems not to be talking up his chances too much but i think he feels he has got a very good chance this year. Is this just wishful thinking on my part?

• 
  

  #96

  whitearab
  February 23rd, 2010 17:42

  Hope not Domi Darko as I have been through SM’s form and have come to the same conclusion! But equally, I know there is a similar case for discounting him and so there is need for folks to post his dodgy run history!

• 
  

  #97

  DomiDarko
  February 23rd, 2010 17:51

  I think his form may be a bit misleading as has run so much on ground that favours other horses more than him.
  I’m hoping if the ground is good and the weights don’t go up that we will see him shine. It could be only his 5th run on his favoured ground at a track he seems to like.
  I guess similar claims could be made for others horses too tho!

• 
  

  #98

  kj
  February 23rd, 2010 17:56

  Kilcrea Castle big mover in today, any reason why? or is it because of guru Crisps big up!

• 
  

  #99

  kj
  February 23rd, 2010 18:27

  oh and I see you all on my bog prediction,
  can’t believe you’d believe the met office before me! honestly, if anything their weather tipping is a worry! Anyone could look out the window now and say its really wet.
  Anyway, I wouldn’t count on it being heavy til week before, ground can change quickly, race is a wk late and the summer is getting earlier, soft is more likely I would say. Urging caution to people that have already backed half the field…waste of time?

• 
  

  #100

  Todd
  February 23rd, 2010 18:47

  Hugh Taylor put up Kilcrea Castle today on the atr website as his antepost tip.

  The Grand National is a race that I feel lends itself well to the strategy of backing two or three horses ante-post. I backed Hello Bud a while ago, on the basis that what he needs is a marathon trip, a test of jumping and reasonable ground, but at this stage he wouldn’t be certain to get in (though if he does, I still think he’ll leave this winter’s form over shorter trips on testing ground well behind). However, one horse that does look interesting with the National in mind is KILCREA CASTLE. He’s scheduled to run in the Racing Post Chase at Kempton this Saturday, and whilst the fancy odds for that evaporated whilst I was away last week, his odds for the Grand National still appear to be massive.

  Kilcrea Castle created a really good impression on his debut for Emma Lavelle in a hot Ascot handicap last month, and what impressed most was his jumping, which enabled him to lie up comfortably in what was a strongly-run 2m5f event. Indeed, it’s been his jumping that has been a hallmark of his runs over fences — he looks a really decent size of horse, but is athletic to go with it, and looks a natural chaser, with good experience in high-class races in Ireland, and for that reason I wouldn’t be too concerned that he’s only an eight-year-old. He seems to handle most types of ground, although he was below par once on very heavy going, and his form in Ireland reads really well; he chased home Casey Jones (a Grade One winner himself) in a Grade Three event on his final start for his previous stable in October, and his staying-on second to Schindlers Hunt just over a year ago also reads well; he was in front of Vic Venturi that day in receipt of only a pound, but will receive 12lb from that rival, who is currently 16-1 second favourite for the National, at Aintree.

  Kilcrea Castle isn’t absolutely certain to get in the National, but it looks more likely than not at this stage, and if he does, he looks favourably treated on 10-08 — he seems to have been more favourably treated than some of the Irish-trained horses just above him in the handicap, for instance, and has barely risen in the weights for the two decent performances mentioned above. Of course his stamina is unproven, but he shapes as if he will stay and he comes from an excellent family of staying chasers — his dam is a half-sister to Harbour Pilot and is out of a full sister to the dam of Montys Pass, one of the most impressive National winners we have seen. Anyone backing this horse for the National needs to be aware that the bet could be worthless as soon as Saturday if he is a major flop at Kempton, with Emma Lavelle having stated that she will make her decision on whether or not he goes to Aintree after the Racing Post Chase, but right now I can’t for the life of me understand why he’s 50-1 for Aintree.

• 
  

  #101

  Me6
  February 23rd, 2010 19:33

  Daniel, here is the Mullins AS quote:-
  “Arbor Supreme (10st 8lb) has a good chance. He will love the ground, has a lovely weight and is a nice age. He wouldn’t want the ground soft as he can’t jump out of it.”

  Returning to the bog scenario, I’m not too worried about NP carrying weight, as he is such a big horse. That is academic anyway, because as someone has pointed out, it is not too likely to happen.

• 
  

  #102

  Me6
  February 23rd, 2010 19:42

  Mullins goes on to say that Snowy Morning has the best chance of his, Beroni and Irish Invader have too much weight, Deutschland and Jayo are too young, they’ve only just found out that Dooneys Gate doesn’t stay, and a couple of others won’t get in.

• 
  

  #103

  Systemsman
  February 23rd, 2010 20:41

  Me6
  “Mullins goes on to say that Snowy Morning has the best chance of his”

  That Mullins is plotting something big thats for sure. SM in the right price rage 25/1- 33/1 at this stage. Both SM and AS will be aimed for that one day the GN race day. Now I was looking for something to add to the list after CB but on second thouhts I may just lump more on SN, top and perfect score so far on Daniels list (I know they dont win if top every year but better top than bottom)also clear 2nd on our master list) class + good weight (better if they dont go up and this is likely). Pablo gives him 29 points so far. Must be a very good bet in any short list.

• 
  

  #104

  Pablo
  February 23rd, 2010 20:47

  Back to the 72 Cheltenham runners last 5 years

  18 of them (25%) ran RPR 140+ at Cheltenham which was also their season’s best

  1 win
  6 places

  Which on the face of it sounds quite good

  But what of the other 75%? Perhaps the competitive nature of the races takes its toll

  The chances are that a run at Cheltenham will do more harm than good (but a good run at Cheltenham can be a good pointer)

  70% of GN winners did not run at that year’s Cheltenham Festival (past 20 years)

• 
  

  #105

  Speedyseagull
  February 23rd, 2010 20:50

  hmm, interesting stats re: Cheltenham but for me 30% is too large a percentage to overlook

• 
  

  #106

  Pablo
  February 23rd, 2010 21:03

  I don’t overlook it I just award extra points for those that avoid Cheltenham – its odds on that the winner will not have had a run at this year’s Festival – only one of the past 7 winners has gone to Cheltenham and that was Silver Birch’s jog round the X-Country course giving weight to all but 2 horses – not exactly as competitive as the Gold Cup, William Hill or Kim Muir

  If any horse excels at the Festival it will pick up more than enough points to compensate

• 
  

  #107

  Speedyseagull
  February 23rd, 2010 22:06

  fair play. Can’t wait for Cheltenham. Hoping for a Gordon Elliot Supreme Novices and Grand National double!

• 
  

  #108

  Speedyseagull
  February 23rd, 2010 22:07

  that’s was meant to say Triumph Hurdle!

• 
  

  #109

  miinnehoma
  February 24th, 2010 01:28

  Last 19 winners -

  A = 24f.+ chase wins.

  B = 24f.+ chase and hurdle Runs.

  C = 24f.+ chase and hurdle wins.

  A – B – C

  4 – 21 – 4 MM
  2 – 12 – 3 COD
  4 – 18 – 5 SB
  3 – 13 – 3 N6
  3 – 13 – 4 HH
  2 – 15 – 2 AH
  2 – 14 – 2 MP
  1 – 14 – 4 BIN
  0 – 05 – 1 RM
  1 – 12 – 1 PAP
  3 – 15 – 3 BJ
  6 – 29 – 7 ES
  3 – 07 – 3 LG
  3 – 12 – 3 RQ
  6 – 23 – 7 RA
  3 – 11 – 5 Min
  4 – 10 – 4 PP
  9 – 27 – 9 SEG?
  13 -27 – 13 MF?

• 
  

  #110

  miinnehoma
  February 24th, 2010 03:35

  Our Top 13 -current prep runs/distance.

  47 Gone To Lunch -85P9—106f.
  43 Snowy Morning -8322—85f.
  29 Hello Bud -735U8–136f.
  28 Iris De Balme -5——22f.
  23 Arbor Supreme -7U—–48f.
  23 Cane Brake -635P—93f.
  21 Air Force One -3——24f.
  21 State Of Play -P——27f.
  19 Royal Co Star -36F—-80f.
  12 Dream Allianc -21P—-82f.
  12 Niche Market -8352—101f.
  11 Charac Build -0——20f.
  10 Maljimar -253—-84f.

• 
  

  #111

  Daniel Edwards
  February 24th, 2010 10:39

  For anybody who is still listening, in 2000, Papillon was 2nd on my points system.

  The only horse to score more was ‘Call it a Day’ with 6.98 to Papillon’s 6.78.

• 
  

  #112

  Showlad
  February 24th, 2010 10:48

  O Daniel, can you hear me….I’m still listeining….can you hear me….
  Interesting 3.40 at Doncaster: Trabolgan runs (gutted he looks set to miss cut). Chief Dan George looks good to me.

• 
  

  #113

  Systemsman
  February 24th, 2010 10:59

  miinnehoma I understand your chart and post but what exactly are we looking for? What looks good and what bad? I’am looking at the figures and trying to work it out. Presumeably one of them is that in the last 12yreas all the GN winners bar 1 (11/12)have at least 12x 24f.+ chase and hurdle Runs.

  What is the significance of current prep runs/distance? (sorry buy its that time in the morning – a bit early for me)

• 
  

  #114

  Systemsman
  February 24th, 2010 11:02

  Daniel and Pablo I’am all ears and with your help and some work of my own we will find that winner this year – I just know it. I actually think we already have it but we need Cheltenham out of the way to be sure.

• 
  

  #115

  Daniel Edwards
  February 24th, 2010 11:12

  Can you imagine if Trablogan sneaks in at number 40 though!!

  I think we would see the biggest gamble in GN history – im holding back a large bet for him, just in case he does get close to making the cut.

  A lightly raced 12 year old who won the Sun Alliance, then the Hennessy off 11_12, running in the National off bottom weight of 10_03….im salvating just thinking about it.

• 
  

  #116

  Systemsman
  February 24th, 2010 11:35

  Using miinnehoma post/figures:

  B = 24f.+ chase and hurdle Runs.

  11 from the last 12 GN winners had 12runs or more at 24f chase and hurdle runs – a strong trend.

  Our Top 13 – (anyone with 11 still has time to get the 12 runs in)

  47 Gone To Lunch 20runs Good
  43 Snowy Morning 14 Good
  29 Hello Bud 16 Good
  28 Iris De Balme 9 Poor
  23 Arbor Supreme 11 – needs another -time short
  23 Cane Brake 13 Good
  21 Air Force One 14 Good
  21 State Of Play 15 Good
  19 Royal Co Star 10 Poor
  12 Dream Allianc 17 Good
  12 Niche Market 18 Good
  11 Charac Build 8 Poor
  10 Maljimar 6 Very Poor

  So its not looking good for
  Iris De Balme (overrated in my opinion)
  Royal County Star
  Character Building
  Maljimar

  With Arbor Supreme needing another run at 24f and times running out.

  You may be interested to know Tricky Trickster has 5.

  9 of the last 12 GN winners had 12 to 18 runs and this fits:
  Snowy Morning (gets in all the lists!!)
  Hellow Bud
  Cane Brake
  Air Force One
  State of Play
  Dream Alliance
  Niche Market

  (Air Force One is not certain at this stage for the GN)

• 
  

  #117

  Maureen
  February 24th, 2010 12:02

  Snowy seems crop up in every list, doesn’t he. I’m still kicking myself at missing the 66/1. He’s also the magic age of 10 [along with 9], although he seems to have been around forever. Not sure about his breeding. Given that he was my original ‘hunch’ bet [although I was concerned that the weather might have swayed my judgement on that score] I’m going to top up my original bet. Even more so if the weights remain as they are [fingers crossed]. I’m sure Mr Mullins has been trying to get his weight down for ages, having realised that he wasn’t quite Gold Cup class. I can still remember people talking about him in his novice years as a Gold Cup winner.As for Daniels system, we need every system going this year, even if it’s just for post race analysis [of which there will be a lot imo]. What a headache this year is!

• 
  

  #118

  Daniel Edwards
  February 24th, 2010 12:21

  I too am starting to like Snowy more and more Maureen

  BUT I am not going to make the same mistake we all did with Rambo last year and get TOO excited!

  I still have doubts over his stamina and jumping, which you could say is quite a negative for the National!

• 
  

  #119

  kj
  February 24th, 2010 12:24

  RCS is overated too!
  nice to see the mileage contrast for our top13 Minnehomma, thanks. What was Pablos fitness theory? haven’t taken notes, I think previous winners had something quite high +100f?
  Only the weather (and the fences) can scupper SM chances it would seem!

• 
  

  #120

  Daniel Edwards
  February 24th, 2010 12:43

  Agreed re RCS – bar him hosing up somewhere between now and then, wouldnt back him with somebody elses money.

  …watch him win by 20 lengths!

  Seriously though, Im not sure he’ll even make the final 40.

• 
  

  #121

  kj
  February 24th, 2010 12:50

  so Daniel you are still keen on Trabolgan, he is no.89! below whinstone, how does he score on your system? which has been the best thing to check out for days! so good on you.
  Trabolgan has been injured, minus points for age but lightly raced, so if his score is 4.– thats ok, but unlikely as I seem to remember cheltenham gets a minus…..its not what your systems for really is it and I think Trabolgan another case of wishful thinking. Still couldn’t say I wouldn’t fancy him if he sneaked in.

• 
  

  #122

  Daniel Edwards
  February 24th, 2010 12:54

  Im not ‘keen’ on him as such KJ, but there’s no way I could let him run of that weight without being on him.

  He doesnt seem to hold an entry at chelts – he runs today, is entered in the RP chase and then the National.

  If he were to place today, he would go into the top 15 on the points system…for now.

  I will post his score after the race, together with the current top 20.

• 
  

  #123

  Daniel Edwards
  February 24th, 2010 13:03

  Oh, and Cheltenham doesnt get a ‘minus’ strictly speaking, but you get more points if you didnt run there than if you did, and its quite a small difference at that.

  Silver Birch for instance had an otherwise perfect score, but was still the joint highest score that year, despite his Cheltenham run.

• 
  

  #124

  Systemsman
  February 24th, 2010 13:14

  Daniel
  “I will post his score after the race, together with the current top 20.

  Many thanks that would be very useful.

• 
  

  #125

  Showlad
  February 24th, 2010 13:19

  Yes looking forward to it Daniel.
  btw if any has last 10 years of cut off points – that would be very interesting.
  Last year was number 74.
  Bar some freak occurence, Trabolgan has NO chance of getting in on 89.

• 
  

  #126

  Daniel Edwards
  February 24th, 2010 13:26

  Showlad – from memory (when this was discussed last year) I seem to recall that the cut off had been below 85 for the past 5 years or so.

  Perhaps somebody can enlighten us?

  Agreed about Trabolgan – im not suggesting anybody puts a penny on him….but if a few more come out on Tuesday than we otherwise expected,and the same happens post Cheltenham, he could be getting close!

• 
  

  #127

  The Stayer
  February 24th, 2010 13:31

  I can’t see Trabolgan getting a run unfortunately. He’s 12 and has had injury problems so I presumed that they were persevering with him to have a crack at the National especially after they took him out of the Gold Cup. But they didn’t seem to try to get his rating up which baffles me slightly. I don’t know where they go with him now. Having won a Hennessy under 11-12 off 151 he’s potentially very well handicapped on 137 so I presume he will get an entry for the William Hill at Cheltenham and after that maybe the Irish National or Bet365? Though lightly raced he’ll be too old for Aintree next year surely?

• 
  

  #128

  kj
  February 24th, 2010 13:38

  yes stayer, I think the lack of trying to get him in says alot, just dreaming again.

• 
  

  #129

  kj
  February 24th, 2010 13:39

  and thanks Daniel

• 
  

  #130

  whitearab
  February 24th, 2010 14:24

  Can anyone kindly post the runners (say in the top 70 runners) who meet the C1 race stat (30/30) of winning or being placed in the National, Hennessey, Scottish and Welsh nationals etc? I am starting to pile through my own stats and will be very happy to post these when completed or email the spreadshet I use to anyone who asks. Probably be the weekend before I get through that.

  If anyone knows the novices in that same population of 70 that would be very useful too. I know I’m being a bit lazy but I never get out of work before 8pm at nights!

• 
  

  #131

  Maureen
  February 24th, 2010 14:32

  I’d be grateful for that info also. Unfortunately my printer doesn’t work otherwise I’d print things out with that sort of info for future reference.

• 
  

  #132

  Irish Raider
  February 24th, 2010 16:06

  Well done Showlad, good call on Chief Dan George, the 7/1 on him topped up the Paddypower account nicely…..cheers!!

• 
  

  #133

  Showlad
  February 24th, 2010 16:06

  Hey guys hope you took my tip today on Chief Dan George

  Trabolgan nowhere…

• 
  

  #134

  Irish Raider
  February 24th, 2010 16:07

  Keep ‘em coming!!

• 
  

  #135

  Showlad
  February 24th, 2010 16:08

  Your welcome Irish Raider

• 
  

  #136

  miinnehoma
  February 24th, 2010 16:11

  Systems – nice one, you worked out the first chart and kj has explained the second –

  “nice to see the mileage contrast for our top13 Minnehomma, thanks. What was Pablos fitness theory? haven’t taken notes, I think previous winners had something quite high +100f?”

  Infact I think it was TC’s chart on fitness – all winners had run 98f+ in their prep runs except miinnehoma with 47f. – only 2 prep runs.

• 
  

  #137

  The Stayer
  February 24th, 2010 16:17

  Surely retirement beckons for Trabolgan after that run?

• 
  

  #138

  Daniel Edwards
  February 24th, 2010 16:27

  You ask, I deliver;

  Snowy Morning —- 6.63
  Ellerslie George – 6.13
  Boychuk ———- 6.13 (too low to get in)
  Hello Bud ——– 6.00
  Parsons Pistol — 6.00 (I made a slight mistake in calculating his score last time)

  Beat The Boys —- 5.93
  Gone to Lunch —- 5.63
  Cane Brake ——- 5.50
  Ollie Magern —– 5.40
  War of Attrition – 5.30

  Albertas Run —– 5.28
  Vic Venturi —— 5.28
  Mon Mome ——— 5.18
  Joe Lively ——- 5.15
  Ballyfitz ——– 5.13

  Offshore Account — 5.13 (too low to get in)
  Royal County Star – 5.10
  Eric’s Charm —— 5.10
  Knowhere ———- 4.90
  Dream Alliance —- 4.88

  Interestingly, Chief Dan George is now at number 21 with that run!

  Obviously the above could change a lot and will be adjusted when the last prep runs are in.

• 
  

  #139

  Daniel Edwards
  February 24th, 2010 16:35

  Here are the highest rated horses that miss out on one of the big stats;

  AGE –

  No.37 – Silver Birch – 4.10

  No.53 – Le Beau Bai -3.20 (i.e missing out on a lot of other stats too)

  NO WIN OVER 24f

  No.52 – Pak Jack – 3.23

  ONLY 1 SEASON RUN

  No.25 – Character Building – 4.73

  LESS THAN 9 CHASE RUNS

  No.46 – Whinstone Boy – 3.53

  LESS THAN 3 CHASE WINS

  No.15 – Ballyfitz – 5.13

  NO C1 CHASE PLACE AT 24F OR FURTHER

  No.21 – Chief Dan George – 4.88

  NO TOP 3 RESULT IN SEASON

  No.7 – Gone to Lunch – 5.63

  MORE THAN 3 FALLS/UR

  No.26 – Chelsea Harbour – 4.58

  Oh, and I should point out I have only crunched the numbers on the top 95 in the entries, so their rankings are relative to that.

• 
  

  #140

  miinnehoma
  February 24th, 2010 17:22

  re – mileage chart above

  Remember crisp 73 has told us 4 past winners had less than 4 prep runs but they all had a win.

  -0F1 Ayala
  -1 Aldaniti
  -12P Last Suspect
  -17 Miinnehoma

  So still a chance for-

  -21P dream Alliance(looks like Last Suspect)
  -01 Eric’s Charm
  and others at present with less than 3 runs.

• 
  

  #141

  Jackie
  February 24th, 2010 17:29

  What about ones that have not run for quite a while, with no apparent entries? eg Cane Brake, I know alot like him, but he’s not been out since Dec and then he pulled up. Others haven’t run since nov/dec,sop?? Thoughts?

• 
  

  #142

  Showlad
  February 24th, 2010 17:33

  Daniel, great thanks. What is the area that previous winners have hit is it 6.00 or above?
  Also (if you’ve posted earlieir already pls repost) do you have the list for as long as you’ve calculated this and where the winner came and with what rating eg 4th in list with 6.12 etc) be great if that info was to hand.

• 
  

  #143

  Showlad
  February 24th, 2010 17:49

  This year’s mystery continues…horses tipped highly perform dreadfully (with a few exceptions) then horses who deliver Whinstone, Chief today etc are so far down they won’t get in lol.

  Now one that should get in on a peach of a weight is Parson’s Pistol. I really liked him and then he’s been totally off recently.
  Staying qualities, great win end Nov then a fall and PU on last outing. Seems to go on any ground inc Good. Dark horse? Anyone know his intentions?

• 
  

  #144

  Showlad
  February 24th, 2010 18:01

  Anyone who’s a RP member there are 2 stories on PP in news archive -could anyone post either up if they’re relevant. Thanks

• 
  

  #145

  Jackie
  February 24th, 2010 18:25

  I have on PP that he has 2 3m wins on hy,s,gd. 3m 5f win too. 5th in troytown, but last 2 runs bad. Question marks for me because of last 2 runs.

• 
  

  #146

  Showlad
  February 24th, 2010 18:42

  Sounded OK on 2nd last run in that it was a fall, though last run was dreadful…

• 
  

  #147

  Jackie
  February 24th, 2010 18:48

  Also with that fall it was a jockey that had not been on him in a race at least, but the last one had P Carberry, his usual jock on.

• 
  

  #148

  mandie
  February 24th, 2010 19:15

  hopefully good news for big fella backers like myself.
  pn says ruby will have the choice between him and tricky for his 2010 gn ride.fingers crossed.

• 
  

  #149

  Nick Mannion
  February 24th, 2010 19:44

  Noted the Chief DG run today. Gets me on to one of my pet topics that horses in form (CDG) after the weights come out should get a ‘penalty’ so they climb up the GN handicap and those being ‘preserved’ for a mark for a run (Cerium and anything Wilson owns..) get overtaken…

  Right my chest suddenly feels lighter!

• 
  

  #150

  Neil S
  February 24th, 2010 20:25

  Showlad, I can’t find the articles in the RP but in the Weekender 23 to 28 December 09 he says nothing directly about the national, but does says the 4 miler at cheltenham being a target. He also mentions that PP has developed into a proper staying chaser.

  Of course I am sure I posted this at the time,but get the impression no-ones listening.

• 
  

  #151

  Showlad
  February 24th, 2010 20:42

  Thanks Neil. If you out PP name in news archive on RP 2 stories come up but only accessible if you’re a RP member. I’m listening
  When is the 4 miler at Chelts is it during the fest?

• 
  

  #152

  miinnehoma
  February 24th, 2010 21:39

  Neil S says -
  “Of course I am sure I posted this at the time,but get the impression no-ones listening.”

  Good one Neil S, that made me laugh, join the club.
  I often get the same feeling with posters asking a question, that was answered 10 posts ago.

• 
  

  #153

  Neil S
  February 24th, 2010 21:40

  Showlad,tried getting these internet stories, could you gave me a timeframe to work with.

  The 4 miler is at cheltenham, but unsure of exact date.

• 
  

  #154

  miinnehoma
  February 24th, 2010 21:43

  Would like to clear up a few things about the 30/30 stat. I have always thought it’s a mighty piece of work started by crisp last year and finished by stephen. Since the pattern was set some time ago and no changes have been needed for the last 24 winners I have always been against any change.

  Now this is only my opinion, but the problem I think we have this year is, there are no stand-out horses below 11st., with 3-4 prep runs at this stage, that match this stat except Gone To Lunch.( you might have others).
  Horses can win with less than 4 prep runs but the stat is 1/19.

  But will GTL run in the GN, are his muscle problems sorted and will he show us a mighty performance before the GN – his last 2 races have been shocking.
  So because of this I will welcome Snowy Morning into the fold and if he did win, it would only be a very small change to the 30/30 stat – top 3 GN. As Pablo has said a few times, we have to expect some change.

  Obviously horses above 11st. that match the 30/30 stat could win and save any changes to it.
  Like – My Will, Dream Alliance, Niche Market, Tricky Trickster, COD, Vic Venturi, Joe Lively, Black Apalachi, Mon Mome, Notre Pere and Madison Du Berlais.
  Blimey there are loads above 11st. that could save it. I see what you mean crisp but surely 2 much wt. ? and other factors.

• 
  

  #155

  Neil S
  February 24th, 2010 21:56

  I get the impression on here that some people have set their minds before seeing what their stats throw up. I apologize if this impression is wrong.

  They seem to voice the stats which fits and drop any which don’t. Some on here try and voice a different opinion but some people’s mind seem set.

  For example, a lot on here was going on about Church Island until the official declaration came out earlier this month.

• 
  

  #156

  Showlad
  February 24th, 2010 21:59

  Neil just put in from1 Mar 2009 to today for search to try and garner any possible info on intentions. The search then came up with 2 stories.
  Miinehoma agree 30/30 stat is so powerful, but this is no grounds for discounting the inclusion of Top 3 or 4 (I think Top 4) for GN placings.
  How on earth can we include Top 3 say for Scots, Irish and Welsh but for the actual BIG RACE itself see that the only relevance is to go down to the Top 2?

• 
  

  #157

  Jackie
  February 24th, 2010 22:00

  I think i would want any above 11 04 to only have 1 other stat against it, not saying it definately won’t win, but surely more unlikely to. The lack of recent runs worries me most.

• 
  

  #158

  Speedyseagull
  February 24th, 2010 22:09

  The 30/30 stat is a good one but will be broken at some point. For example, I would much prefer to have a horse who finished a staying on 6th in the Hennessy to one which finished a weakening 5th

• 
  

  #159

  Neil S
  February 24th, 2010 22:10

  Reading Nick Mordin, in the Weekender today, Nick will be looking at the national in detail in a few weeks.

  From 1865 to 1983 the was a winner carrying 11-02 or more within 7 years of each other. Since however we’ve had 25 grand national were the winner carried 11-01 or less.

  This plus the fact a lot of runners have 11 stone something makes me think are we going to witness a weight carrying performance from one of these heavy weights.

• 
  

  #160

  Speedyseagull
  February 24th, 2010 22:20

  Can someone clarify the prep runs? What is the maximum on the trends over past 15 – 20 years. Is it 7 or 8?

• 
  

  #161

  Jackie
  February 24th, 2010 22:32

  I have prep runs as 2-8 28/28, posted earlier on from this site, sorry not sure who OP is though, ( pablo? )

  Weeks since last run 2-7 28/28. Same post.

• 
  

  #162

  Neil S
  February 24th, 2010 22:35

  Showlad, just read these articles first one dated 11 October 2009 headlines read Walsh out to land big race for Martin on Mile.

  The second dated 1 November 09 and reads, Parsons Pistol expected to go well in conditions.

  I can’t find any stories on PP intentions. Sorry!

• 
  

  #163

  Speedyseagull
  February 24th, 2010 22:35

  thanks Jackie, thought that was right

• 
  

  #164

  crisp 73
  February 24th, 2010 22:42

  Miinnehoma- like the table of career runs at 24f or more, I’d started looking at this last weekend, couldn’t believe it when you posted that. Anyway, up the bar, 18/20 GN winners won at 25f or more, the two that didn’t only ran three times at 25f or more, 16/20 won at least 2 career races at 25f or more. Curiously, those that didn’t win twice at 25f had a good record in handicap chases and had a good RPR>OR on the day.

• 
  

  #165

  Showlad
  February 24th, 2010 22:43

  Thanks Neil for looking

• 
  

  #166

  Pablo
  February 24th, 2010 22:48

  Jackie – that looks like Crisp’s work

  Neil – not sure all 30 over 11’0 will turn up – maybe only 20 – in 2008 we had 18 over 11’0 and last year 16 so the race maybe similar shape to the past two years. I thought the quality below 11’0 was poor last year and think that this year it will be much better, for example

  Beroni – won Troytown this year
  Can’t Buy Time – won at Cheltenham this year
  Le Beau Bai – 3rd in Welsh
  Snowy Morning – 3rd in GN before
  Air Force One – 2nd in Hennessy before
  Big Fella Thanks – 6th last year as a Novice
  Character Building – Festival winner last year
  Chelsea Harbour – dropped in handicap, some decent staying form and badly ridden in 2008
  Gone To Lunch – 5th in Hennessy this year
  State Of Play – previous Hennessy winner, 4th last year
  Royal County Star – former Troytown winner, previous 2nd Irish to Hear The Echo
  Ballyfitz – ran well in a few top races this season
  King Johns Castle – former 2nd in GN
  Ollie Magern – well handicapped on best form, big weight last year
  Arbor Supreme – possibilites on best form, top stable
  Cane Brake – GC 5th, 2 big handicaps (but 3 years ago! – but then I am biased – just want to see him run again)
  Kilcrea Castle – win in RP Chase would be very interesting – jumps and travels really well and although dosage not great does have some interesting breeding influences
  Maljimar – nice staying influences if an underachiever so far
  Hello Bud – Scottish winner
  Iris De Balme – Scottish winner

• 
  

  #167

  Jackie
  February 24th, 2010 22:50

  Sorry Pablo. So many tables/stats to keep and then I don’t keep who OP was!! : )

• 
  

  #168

  Systemsman
  February 24th, 2010 23:09

  “Daniel Edwards says:
  February 24, 2010 at 4:27 PM

  You ask, I deliver;

  Snowy Morning —- 6.63
  Ellerslie George – 6.13
  Boychuk ———- 6.13 (too low to get in)
  Hello Bud ——– 6.00
  Parsons Pistol — 6.00 (I made a slight mistake in calculating his score last time)

  Beat The Boys —- 5.93
  Gone to Lunch —- 5.63″

  Daniel when you last posted not long ago you had
  SM 7.58
  EG 7.08
  HB 6.95
  BTB 6.88

  What happneed as some of these have not run? Why did the scores change and are we still looking for 6.35 and above as the ideal score?

• 
  

  #169

  Neil S
  February 25th, 2010 00:21

  Pablo, you put up an impressive list of horses under 11 stone,but can I play devil’s advocate here and put up a counter argument.

  We got Madison Du Berlais whose well in on OR 158, who if turning up on his best form must rate as a danger in anyone’s book. Also we got Niche Market and Tricky Trickster who both ran so well in the Aon chase. Niche Market as only gone up by 4 pounds. Granted Tricky’s price is poor but he has to be worthy of consideration. Last we got Black Apalachi who was leading the pack when coming down bechers second time. I read on anther website (not racing forum) that the pace slowed down when he went, allowing the back numbers to catch up.

• 
  

  #170

  miinnehoma
  February 25th, 2010 01:59

  Our Top 13 -current prep runs/distance.

  and now – Hcap scores -

  47 Gone To Lunch-85P9—106f./5-0
  43 Snowy Morning-8322—85f./4-0
  29 Hello Bud -735U8–136f./18-7
  28 Iris De Balme -5——22f./9-2
  23 Arbor Supreme -7U—–48f./9-2
  23 Cane Brake -635P—93f./9-2
  21 Air Force One -3——24f./2-0
  21 State Of Play -P——27f./6-2
  19 Royal Co Star -36F—-80f./11-2
  12 Dream Allianc -21P—-82f./7-2
  12 Niche Market -8352—101f./6-2
  11 Charac Build -0——20f./8-2
  10 Maljimar -253—-84f./15-2

• 
  

  #171

  miinnehoma
  February 25th, 2010 03:32

  Someone asked for the 30/30 stat list.

  30/30 Stat (+5 rascals+)
  Some others might still qualify via 3×24(1×28)

  MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 9-11-10;
  NOTRE PERE (FR) 9-11-10;
  MON MOME (FR) 10-11-07;
  BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 11-11-06;
  JOE LIVELY (IRE) 11-11-06;
  VIC VENTURI (IRE) 10-11-06.
  COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 11-11-05;
  NICHE MARKET; (IRE) 9-11-04;
  TRICKY TRICKSTER (IRE) 7-11-04;
  DREAM ALLIANCE 9-11-03;
  MY WILL (FR) 10-11-02;
  WAR OF ATTRITION 11-11-1; —+1st.GC+
  LE BEAU BAI (FR) 7-10-13;
  SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 10-10-13; — +3rd.GN+
  AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 8-10-12;
  CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 10-10-11;
  CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 10-10-11;
  GONE TO LUNCH (IRE) 10-10-11;
  STATE OF PLAY 10-10-11;
  ROYAL COUNTY STAR (IRE) 11-10-10;
  ERIC’S CHARM (FR) 12-10-09;
  KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 11-10-09;- +2nd.GN+
  OLLIE MAGERN 12-10-09;
  CANE BRAKE (IRE) 11-10-08;– – +5th.GC+
  IRISH RAPTOR (IRE) 11-10-07;
  MR POINTMENT (IRE) 11-10-07;
  HELLO BUD (IRE) 12-10-06;
  IRIS DE BALME (FR) 10-10-06;
  TRUST FUND (IRE) 12-10-06;
  FLINTOFF (USA) 9-10-05;
  PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 12-10-05;
  ROYAL ROSA (FR) 11-10-05; — +3rd.Becher+
  SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 13-10-05;
  KNOWHERE (IRE) 12-10-04;
  OODACHEE 11-10-04;
  TRABOLGAN (IRE) 12-10-03

  I do hope the winner is on the list – feck.

• 
  

  #172

  Pablo
  February 25th, 2010 08:13

  Neil – I agree that some of the horses above 11’0 look good too

  I just don’t buy the argument that the compression of the weights means that a horse over 11’0 will defintely win this year

  It appears from reading Betfair etc that some have already written off the 11’1 threshold, but think that Black Apalachi ran a better trial than Vic Ventruri because he’ll be 5lb better off in the GN – on the one hand that that weight is no longer important but then yes it is (can’t have it both ways)

  Plenty of top weights win and I always look at the top weight before the favourite because it is the best rated horse in a handicap

  But it depends on which horses are getting the weight and I think that my list shows that those near the top of the handicap will have to run a blinder to win giving weight away to some experienced horses with form in the book

  For example MDB will be giving away 12lb to Air Force One – that’s a 15lb turnaround from their Hennessy form – so it won’t be easy for MDB by any means

• 
  

  #173

  Pablo
  February 25th, 2010 08:16

  That’s if AFO runs – not sure – tend to ignore commnents from his connections

• 
  

  #174

  Daniel Edwards
  February 25th, 2010 08:55

  Systemsman – Fear not. The points I have posted now do not include the points for ‘days since last run’

  If you assume the horse you like will have had their last run within a 3-7 week period, add 1.00 to their score.

  Rough Quest is the only one to tip under this 3 week mark in the past 20 years, so any horse between 2-3 weeks gets 0.05 points.

  All the rest (i.e. those outside the 2-7 week margin) get 0.00 for this stat.

  Whoever it was who asked for a review of the points system over the years I have done it for, I will post this up later.

  Re: the 30/30 stat and ammending it. The way to test it is thus;

  Go back through the last 30 years and see how often it has been ammended during that period.

  In other words, it is top 5 in the Hennessy I believe. If so, check to see if it was once top 3 in the Hennessy, or top 4 and see when it became top 5. Same applies to the other trials that make it up.

  That way then you can see the likelihood of it needing to be amended after this years race.

  Make sense?

• 
  

  #175

  whitearab
  February 25th, 2010 09:11

  Thanks Minnehoma, you are a legend.

• 
  

  #176

  Neil S
  February 25th, 2010 09:53

  Pablo, your point is taken. Personally I think it depends on whose top weight and how much weight they carrying, it also helps if they big enough to carry it, like Party Politics was.

  Second I agree I think BA ran better than VV

  Thirdly if MDB lines up on day more than likely he be carrying some of my money on him.

• 
  

  #177

  Pablo
  February 25th, 2010 11:14

  I don’t really buy into this big horse / small horse argument – Party Poltics was a huge horse yet won and placed with 11’0

  Red Rum was not a massive horse and he carried 12’0 to victory

  The Gold Cup runners have to carry 12’0 and you don’t have to be a giant horse to win the Gold Cup

• 
  

  #178

  Pablo
  February 25th, 2010 11:22

  Should be…Party Poltics was a huge horse yet won and placed with <11′0

• 
  

  #179

  Daniel Edwards
  February 25th, 2010 11:38

  Right, just to tidy up the years I haven’t detailed;

  2006 – Numbersixvalverde top scored with 7.58 (Perfect score) and was the only horse to acheive this score that year, as well as being the only horse to get more than 7.00.

  2005 – Strong Resolve – 7.58 (Perfect Score)

  then a gap to

  Hedgehunter 6.88.

  So Hedgehunter was 2nd in his year in the points table (and would have been scored highly even if given a zero for weight, as at the time the perception was you had to carry under 11 stone)

• 
  

  #180

  Daniel Edwards
  February 25th, 2010 11:51

  So in summary;

  2009 –

  Mon Mome 6.88 (4th)
  1 perfect score
  2 scores above 7.00 (including the perfect score)

  2008 –

  Comnply or Die 7.08 (2nd)
  1 perfect score
  2 scores above 7.00

  2007 –

  Silver Birch 7.08 (joint 1st)
  0 perfect scores
  2 scores above 7.00

  2006 –

  Numbersixvalverde 7.58(1st)
  1 perfect score
  1 score above 7.00

  2005 -

  Hedgehunter 6.88 (2nd)
  1 perfect score
  1 score above 7.00

  2004 –

  Amberleigh House 6.35 (6th)
  1 perfect score
  2 score above 7.00

  2003 –

  Montys Pass 6.48 (5th)
  1 perfect score
  1 score above 7.00

  2002 –

  Bindaree 6.45 (4th)
  1 perfect score
  2 scores above 7.00

  2000 –

  Papillon – 6.78 (2nd)
  0 perfect score
  o score above 7.

  So, in further summary;

  5/9 were in the top 2
  7/9 were in the top 4
  9/9 were in the top 6

  In these 9 years;

  7 horses had a perfect score (backing all for £1 at SPs would return a £4 profit)

  13 horses had more than 7.00 (backing all for £1 at SPs would return a £40 profit)

  Backing the top 2 on the points system each year for £1 at SPs would return a £54 profit.

• 
  

  #181

  The Stayer
  February 25th, 2010 12:15

  Great stuff Daniel. I’ll be interested to see your list after the final decs stage. Top 2 might have to be backed.

• 
  

  #182

  Daniel Edwards
  February 25th, 2010 12:17

  I am intending to back them regardless of who they are, just in case as it were!!

  and then top up on other horses that I fancy, regardless of where they are on the list.

• 
  

  #183

  The Stayer
  February 25th, 2010 12:25

  £54 profit to a £1 stake over the last 9 years. Definitely worth having a few quid on the top 2 on your list, maybe even the top 4 if they score above 7.00 or you’ve already backed the top 2.

• 
  

  #184

  Neil S
  February 25th, 2010 12:27

  Pablo, I picked Party Politics because he quickly came to mind on a horse that could carry a huge weight. When he came second Royal Athlete jumped the last in the lead and according to Jenny Pitman has never lost a race when he’s done that (Royal Athlete not Party Politics )

  The has been small winners too like Battleship.

  Daniel is this the first year you’ve used your system or has it given the winner in the top six when you actually applied it in the relative year.

  What I saying are the past winners on data you know now, or then?

• 
  

  #185

  Daniel Edwards
  February 25th, 2010 12:34

  Neil – very important question.

  The answer (unfortunately) is that this is the first year I have applied it.

  HOWEVER – most of the stats I use havent been ammended (certainly not by great amounts) during the period I have studied. The only main difference, as I have alluded to elsewhere, is the question of weight.

  Strictly speaking, in Hedgehunters year he would have got 0.15 less, as back then the consesus was you had to have less than 11_00 to win. He still would have rated highly though and would have fact (i’ve checked) still been 2nd in the points system.

  I could, I guess, put myself in the position I would have been in at the time (i.e. looking at the past 20 years as it was at the time) and calculate the scores afresh. I will do this when I get time, but my gut feeling is the points wont change much, and I would hope it would still be a reliable system.

  Mon Mome for instance would have lost 0.08 last year, because at the time only Hedgehunter had carried 11 stone or more in the previous 20 years. He still would have ranked highly though.

• 
  

  #186

  Daniel Edwards
  February 25th, 2010 12:48

  Ive just done last year quickly (quicker than I thought once you have the raw data)

  The top 5 remain as before, with just 0.05 here and there difference in the points.

  The trends I use have been fairly solid over the past 20 years, and certainly over the last 10.

  I think if I went back as far as 2000 and those years, there would be some changes, as going back 20 years from that would include the runs of Grittar and Corbiere and their big weight wins. But for recent years, the scores would be largely the same.

• 
  

  #187

  Neil S
  February 25th, 2010 12:50

  Understood Daniel, I still think the system is very clever and sounds well reasoned. Would have been more impressed if it produced the winners in the top six with what you knew then.

  To really work backwards from this time last year you have to know who was in the field then. Personally I know I couldn’t give you a full list of who was running never mind who was in the ante post field a couple of months from the event.

• 
  

  #188

  Daniel Edwards
  February 25th, 2010 13:00

  For 2008 the top 5 remain the same 5 horses, but Comply Or Die narrowly slips from 2nd to 4th, but still has a score of 6.98. Meanwhile Kelami and D’Argent creep above the 7.00 mark and climb above COD in the ratings.

• 
  

  #189

  Daniel Edwards
  February 25th, 2010 13:02

  Neil – the system works solely on the 40 runners on the day.

  For that reason I have urged caution on analysing the results too much at this stage (and in fact only posted them after much pleading!!)

• 
  

  #190

  Systemsman
  February 25th, 2010 13:51

  “Daniel Edwards says:
  February 25, 2010 at 12:17 PM

  I am intending to back them regardless of who they are, just in case as it were!!”

  And my money too Daniel – top six for sure (some more than others after last years 100/1 you just cant be sure. Can you update SM and AS if they run at the weekend + any others who may run at weekend)on Monday.

  On another point if a horse runs at Cheltenham I presume they get 1point for running within 3-7 weeks of GN (if not already awarded by that date) minus a certain small figure I presume for running at Cheltenham (a negative factor I believe)? I thnk that right Daniel?

• 
  

  #191

  Daniel Edwards
  February 25th, 2010 14:03

  Almost right.

  You dont get a negative figure for running at cheltenham, because it happens 2-3 times a decade.

  Instead, you get less points than you do if you dont run. In effect of course this means you are losing out on those that dont run and can’t get a perfect score. Effectively therefore its a ‘minus’ but on my points system scores are actually added after cheltenham depending on whether or not they had a run there.

  It is fair to give a horse 0 for running at cheltenham when it has happened 2 times in the last decade, and also award a horse 0 for carrying more than 11_01, when that hasn’t happened this decade, hence why they get a score either way.

  Reading that back it doesnt sound clear, but its the best I can manage im afraid!!

  Does that make any sense at all?

• 
  

  #192

  Daniel Edwards
  February 25th, 2010 14:05

  Oh, and I will update the scores after every run of any horse, which will certianly be every Monday. If people could point out when a horse has run, it would be appreciated.

  I can tell you now though SM will (for now at least) have a perfect score whatever he does at the weekend.

  Arbor Supreme’s score will change if he places.

• 
  

  #193

  Daniel Edwards
  February 25th, 2010 14:08

  Sorry, that should read

  “It ISNT fair to give a horse 0 for running at cheltenham when it has happened 2 times in the last decade, and also award a horse 0 for carrying more than 11_01, when that hasn’t happened this decade, hence why they get a score either way.”

• 
  

  #194

  The Stayer
  February 25th, 2010 14:45

  Quick question on Air Force One: I know Charlie Mann initially said that the plan might be the Irish National then the Bet365 but do people see him as a likely runner at Aintree? 10-12 must be tempting and the owner won this with Silver Birch so clearly is a fan of the race.

• 
  

  #195

  Neil S
  February 25th, 2010 15:04

  If the target for AF1 is the Irish, and generally you get the truth from trainers months or weeks from any major event than when time is pressing, then I can’t see him running at Liverpool.

  He got pulled out late if memory serves me well last year.

• 
  

  #196

  Daniel Edwards
  February 25th, 2010 15:06

  I think Air Force One is one of the few horses we could all agree is well handicapped. If he lines up he would have to be very seriously considered.

  But there’s just no point at all in trying to steal some value by backing him at the moment when it looks far more likely than not that he will run in the Irish instead.

• 
  

  #197

  The Stayer
  February 25th, 2010 15:09

  “He got pulled out late if memory serves me well last year.”

  True. But this time last year he was rated 160 and he’s been given a rating of 146 this time around. I hope he goes for it because if he were to win the Irish National or Bet365 he would probably be whacked up to around 160 again!

• 
  

  #198

  Daniel Edwards
  February 25th, 2010 16:02

  Carrying on from my earlier posts;

  In 2007 the top 5 would have been the same (and in the same order)

  Silver Birch would have been out at the front on his own, and not joint first with Homers Wells.

  So i think it holds up, certainly for the past 5 years or so.

• 
  

  #199

  Showlad
  February 25th, 2010 17:36

  Mon Mome and Niche running in William Hill at Chelts…

• 
  

  #200

  Nick Mannion
  February 25th, 2010 17:47

  Some brilliant work by several people esp Dan E and the 30/30 stat. I will have to back the top 2 if not top 4 of the stat this year Dan!

  Just a general point but these more recent stats and trends surely hold more water than the 16th (poor joke) as the race ‘aint what it used to be’ for many many reasons…some good some bad some downright emasculating….(I am Ginger McCain!!).

  As it makes the 30/30 stat and the last 5 Irish winners stat (all rated 138-144) then more and more am I drawn towards King Johns Castle plus the top 2 from Dans exceptional work.

• 
  

  #201

  Systemsman
  February 25th, 2010 18:18

  Now I have been looking at GN profiles for a few years on the Racing Post site and sometimes its worth having a quick look at a runner to see if he fits using you eye only. Done this agian today with SM (try it yourself)and he looks all over the “Type” you would look for as a GN winning profle. I know he’s not the only one and yes I am trying to to convince myself that my anti post bet is a good one but he IS a good anti-post bet as we know he is aimed at the GN and that Mullins wants a GN winner!

  I like the fact he has had plenty of runs in big races and has had 4wins with form this season. Other than win the GN in April I’am not sure what more we could ask of him at this stage – a brillient job by the trainer so far in preparing him for one more “big one”! (his last best chance I think). The right age and the right background.

• 
  

  #202

  Neil S
  February 25th, 2010 18:21

  Nick, I am glad you brought up Ginger and his whining about the race not being what it used to be.

  Reading a book recently about memorable grand national and Lottery’s one the first one at this site, was a level weight contest around this time of year and they had to jump a brick wall.
  I think it said that the owners of lottery had to pay an extra £100 on top of what everyone else had to pay for the following years. I think it was around the fifth year it became a handicap.

  So even when rummie lined up in 1973 the race had altered.

• 
  

  #203

  Neil S
  February 25th, 2010 18:24

  Systemsman Sm lacks a win over 26 furlongs for me, unless he proves to be another Gaye Trip I just can’t place any money on him with confidence.

• 
  

  #204

  Neil S
  February 25th, 2010 18:26

  P.S. SM IS FOR SNOWY MORNING AND NOT SIEGEMASTER.

• 
  

  #205

  Pablo
  February 25th, 2010 18:39

  Neil – 4 of the last 10 winners hadn’t won a chase over 26f or more before their win

  The past 6 had won over 26f but from 2000-2003 25f was the maximum

• 
  

  #206

  TC
  February 25th, 2010 18:39

  great to be back in the English sun!! Now time for the cheltenham/aintree assault

  little bit of a surprise in the weights, although i would say overall PS has done a pretty good job and it’s still very likely that MM will be top weight. Still have to stick with the trends as they are still very strong. So many good horses below the 11’00 mark and looks as if a very lightly weighted horse will win. The top6 i put up before weights wouldnt have changed too much, although pretty much lost faith in AS, who hasnt been entered in the willhill either. needs a good performance at Leopardstown!!

  My current 3 for the national would be GTL (Blinkers please!!), IDB (No.1 with an Eider win) and RCS (’08 IN form shouldnt be dismissed lightly). had a silly pre-weights bet on Oodachee with the hope he was raised a few pounds. Pretty much labelled him a non-stayer after his run at Sandown which is probably unfair based on one run (has the magic ‘B’ word in his pedigree). Also may be running this weekend at Leopardstown

  17/19 recorded their best RPR during their national winning season. the exceptions Bobbyjo who won the IN a year earlier and Papillon in the same race who carried top weight.
  Snowy Morning is a litlle flattered by the the formbook and his figures would also suggest that and has been rightfully dropped down the handicap. Should run well again, but i don’t think he’s quite good enough to win unless he goes close to Tranquil Sea in the Ryanair!!

  

• 
  

  #207

  Pablo
  February 25th, 2010 18:53

  TC – hope you had an enjoyable holiday – weather has been sh ite and looks like it will continue

  14/19 I make it to have recorded best RPR during winning season, exceptions being:

  Royal Athlete
  Bobbyjo
  Papillon
  Red Marauder
  Hedgehunter

• 
  

  #208

  TC
  February 25th, 2010 19:09

  yeah was good thanks Pablo

  that stat should have been best LH, but its still out, oops. But all were within their last 4 LH chases. think thats right – might check that though!

• 
  

  #209

  Neil S
  February 25th, 2010 19:31

  Pablo, actually 25½ furlongs required to show stamina, used to say three miles minimum but found too many getting through that stat. So looked at 3 ½ miles but not enough races at the right class. Settled on 26 (25½) furlongs (gold cup distance. )

  It’s a better theory than a good 2½ miler, hate that saying.

• 
  

  #210

  Pablo
  February 25th, 2010 19:59

  Neil – Gold Cup is 26.5 furlongs not 25.5

  All I was trying to say is that if you had used 26f+ then you would have missed

  Papillon
  Red Marauder
  Bindaree
  Monty’s Pass

  in the past 10 years

• 
  

  #211

  Giant
  February 25th, 2010 20:00

  Can I perhaps ask a cheeky question.

  Daniel you said you intend backing your ‘top 6′ and topping up on others you fancy.

  How many horses will you back? Does it not that away the thrill of backing the winner when you’ve bet on 10+ horses?

  I guess the answer is if you make a profit you don’t care but I am just curious.

• 
  

  #212

  Neil S
  February 25th, 2010 21:09

  Pablo you look up gold cup on racing post and it says the distance is 3 miles 1 furlong and 110 yards. It used to read 3 miles 2 furlongs,but since re-measuring the course half a furlong came off.

• 
  

  #213

  Maureen
  February 25th, 2010 21:11

  I think you have to back quite a few horses because whatever happens there is still the ‘luck’ factor in the race [that's my excuse, anyway]. By the way, does anyone know who Eddie the Shoe writes for now that he’s left The Observer. Didn’t have much success last year but he’s generally pretty good.

• 
  

  #214

  Daniel Edwards
  February 25th, 2010 21:15

  All of the Gold cup I can find are listed as being 27f…so they are at least 3m2.5f

• 
  

  #215

  Daniel Edwards
  February 25th, 2010 21:16

  Giant – I think last year I had 6 running for me on the day. I doubt it will be more than that really. If I did say I would back all of the top 6 on my list and some others (I dont recall it , but I may have) I think I was probably getting a bit over excited.

  I could bet on zero horses in the national, or all 40, and it would still be the best 11 minutes of the year!

• 
  

  #216

  Neil S
  February 25th, 2010 21:28

  Pablo I owe you an apology, looked at Gold cup on line and you’re right with the distance. Yet when I collected the form from weekenders at the time it read 25½f and I noticed this because it seemed odd.

• 
  

  #217

  Showlad
  February 26th, 2010 00:05

  Big Big DARK HORSE is PARSON’S PISTOL. Cracking win at 29f at end November, then no disgrace in falling and dissapointing in being PU last time out.
  A big fav on here prior to that. Entered in Kim Muir at Chelts and riding high in Daniel’s list. Great weight at GN on 10-07 and 66th should defo get in. Ran 121f this season (includes around 20f before being PU in last race).
  If he does well at Kim Muir his odds will collapse…

• 
  

  #218

  miinnehoma
  February 26th, 2010 01:44

  crisp 73, re- the table of 24f+ chase/hurdle runs.

  I did that a few years ago and it does give some help. But the problem with it and some other stats is the fact that they are not solid 19/19, which means they are open to different interpretations, be it for or against any particular horse. What we need are more straight forward 19/19 stats.

• 
  

  #219

  ThaiMark
  February 26th, 2010 01:56

  Thanks Daniel – your recent posts and new system have re-galvanised my search for GN winner 2010. So many disappointments recently re non runners, weight increases, weather anomalies etc that I’d given up, at least until race week.

  Out of interest Daniel, how many factors do you take in to account? My own system (not as refined) uses 17 trends and the official version on this site has 20+. All my leading fancies (except King John) were mentioned although only 3 were in your top 6.

  Systems – I’ve just done a similar ‘cast of the eye’ job over the profile of GTL. Man he looks good on trends and you’d have to think that with the difference in prize money (GN 4 x as valuable as SN?) that GTL must be run in the biggest event of them all.

• 
  

  #220

  ThaiMark
  February 26th, 2010 02:40

  Back to Daniels list, in an attempt to cut down the field further I surveyed recent GN winner profiles. TS rating to me indicates class and of course they need this and stamina to win the National. Of the last 13 GN winners all bar 4 had TS ratings in excess of 140 beforehand. The 4 that didn’t achieved TS 140+ before the GN did so later in their career (possibly GN itself – didn’t check) and this fact tells us they all had major improvement in them, but how to spot that? What else did the sub140 four have in common – i) great stamina weighted dosage figures and ii) they’d all won valuable chases (over 50k in current money) which shows they had that big winning mentality.

  So, of Daniels top 13 these have TS over 140

  Snowy
  Gone To Lunch
  Ollie Magern
  War
  Joe Lively
  Ballyfitz

  Joe Lively carries 11-6 and Ollie Magern is 12 and hasn’t won for xxx races.

  Of those in Daniels list under TS 140 that have the right stamina dosage figures and a chase win of say, over 30k )
  Ellerslie George
  Cane Brake

  These were the only 2 in the -140 list with the right dosage – it just happened that they had also won valuable races!! No coincidence I feel.

  Ellerslie George can’t run at Aintree (something like 120L behind in 2 attempts).

  So, on the TS/stamina assumption we are left with:-

  Snowy
  Gone TL
  War
  Ballyfitz
  Cane Brake

  With 2 possible non runners and a horse that can’t jump, the list makes interesting reading.

• 
  

  #221

  miinnehoma
  February 26th, 2010 05:03

  Starting with -

  30/30 stat ++++
  36 horses on list-

  MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 9-11-10;
  NOTRE PERE (FR) 9-11-10;
  MON MOME (FR) 10-11-07;
  BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 11-11-06;
  JOE LIVELY (IRE) 11-11-06;
  VIC VENTURI (IRE) 10-11-06.
  COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 11-11-05;
  NICHE MARKET; (IRE) 9-11-04;
  TRICKY TRICKSTER (IRE) 7-11-04;
  DREAM ALLIANCE 9-11-03;
  MY WILL (FR) 10-11-02;
  WAR OF ATTRITION 11-11-1; —+1st.GC+
  LE BEAU BAI (FR) 7-10-13;
  SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 10-10-13; — +3rd.GN+
  AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 8-10-12;
  CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 10-10-11;
  CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 10-10-11;
  GONE TO LUNCH (IRE) 10-10-11;
  STATE OF PLAY 10-10-11;
  ROYAL COUNTY STAR (IRE) 11-10-10;
  ERIC’S CHARM (FR) 12-10-09;
  KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 11-10-09;- +2nd.GN+
  OLLIE MAGERN 12-10-09;
  CANE BRAKE (IRE) 11-10-08;– – +5th.GC+
  IRISH RAPTOR (IRE) 11-10-07;
  MR POINTMENT (IRE) 11-10-07;
  HELLO BUD (IRE) 12-10-06;
  IRIS DE BALME (FR) 10-10-06;
  TRUST FUND (IRE) 12-10-06;
  FLINTOFF (USA) 9-10-05;
  PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 12-10-05;
  ROYAL ROSA (FR) 11-10-05; — +3rd.Becher+
  SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 13-10-05;
  KNOWHERE (IRE) 12-10-04;
  OODACHEE 11-10-04;
  TRABOLGAN (IRE) 12-10-03

  Using only six 19/19 stats -

  1 – age 8-12—–19/19
  2 – wt. 11-01 or less—–19/19
  3 – min. 3 chase wins—–19/19
  4 – chase win in last 10 chases by Jan.1st.19/19
  5 – 45%+ chase place S/R by 31st.Dec.–19/19
  6 – min. 2 prep runs by GN day—–19/19

  I can hear some people shouting – S/R my donkey.

  Some might still match no.3
  Some might still join 30/30 stat via 3×24(1×28).

  So we are left with 8 -

  WAR OF ATTRITION 11-11-1; —+1st.GC+
  SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 10-10-13; — +3rd.GN+
  AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 8-10-12;
  CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 10-10-11;
  GONE TO LUNCH (IRE) 10-10-11;
  ERIC’S CHARM (FR) 12-10-09;

  PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 12-10-05; -might miss cut
  TRABOLGAN (IRE) 12-10-03 – needs a miracle-no.89

  The winner could be above 11-01 ?
  The winner might not match the 30/30 stat ?

• 
  

  #222

  crisp 73
  February 26th, 2010 07:52

  Miinnehoma, what I meant about runs at 25f or more was that Snowy Morning has ran ten times at 25f or more and not won. This is very unusual.

  Career runs at 25f or more and career wins,
  Mr Frisk 7 – 2
  Seagram 14 – 4
  Party Politics 8 – 3
  Miinnehoma 8 – 3
  Royal Athlete 14 – 5
  Rough Quest 8 – 2
  Lord Gyllene 6 – 2
  Earth Summit 18 – 3
  Bobbyjo 6 – 3
  Papillon 8 – 1
  Red Marauder 3 – 0
  Bindaree 8 – 2
  Monty’s Pass 3 – 0
  Amberleigh House 8 – 2
  Hedgehunter 7 – 2
  Numbersixvalverde 2 – 1
  Silver Birch 15 – 5
  Comply Or Die 10 – 3
  Mon Mome 18 – 3

• 
  

  #223

  whitearab
  February 26th, 2010 08:54

  Crisp – note what you say about Snowy and no wins over 25f+ – but I would rather back a horse who had finished third in the National before, at 8 years old, giving 6lbs to the winner (Comply or Die) giving him 6 pounds – than one who had a win at 25f in an everage race. Long time ago now I accept, but he was also staying on strongly at the end of the RSA where beaten by Denman. I read willie Mullins say in an article recently that he had no stamina concenrs about the horse and that was good enough for me! But I do understand what you are saying.

• 
  

  #224

  andy
  February 26th, 2010 09:32

  think i’m right in saying 17/19 had won over at least 25f and placed over at least 27f.

• 
  

  #225

  Pablo
  February 26th, 2010 10:09

  Those figures don’t look too good for Snowy but in his defence his rating has meant that he has run in six Grade 1 and Grade 2 races over 25f+ apart from his two National runs and two Hennessy runs – so no soft races

  The only two times he has run in a handicap from a mark in the 140s he fell when favourite for the Hennessy and came third in the GN

• 
  

  #226

  Daniel Edwards
  February 26th, 2010 10:37

  I had my first GN dream of 2010 last night!!

  Mon Mome won with ease….much like last year.

  Given that I dreamt this time last year that Butlers Cabin won, with Black Apalachi 3rd, I think its pretty safe to lay Mon Mome this year!!

• 
  

  #227

  crisp 73
  February 26th, 2010 10:38

  Pablo, surely if Snowy Morning was running in Grade 1′s and 2′s it was because they thought he’s good enough to win Grade 1′s and 2′s.

• 
  

  #228

  Daniel Edwards
  February 26th, 2010 10:38

  Somebody asked how many stats I use for my points system. Just the 10.

• 
  

  #229

  andy
  February 26th, 2010 11:03

  getting frustrated now,applied the usual trends then tweaked them a bit (won at 24f,then 25f,11st 5lbs then 11-1 ,won at 25f + placed over 27f etc). only 2 horses meet all trends and both are 12yrs old,maybe i’m trying to make other horses fit like last year when had mon mome on a 8 horse short-ish list and did’nt back it cos i did’nt fancy it and backed state of play,parsons etc.i don’t know what it is about 12yr old’s but for some reason i don’t fancy them even though they meet all my trends.

• 
  

  #230

  Systemsman
  February 26th, 2010 11:12

  Putting the lists of ThaiMark and miinnehoma together we have:

  Short list – best chance of winning:
  SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 10-10-13; — +3rd.GN+
  GONE TO LUNCH (IRE) 10-10-11 (if he runs)
  WAR OF ATTRITION 11-11-1; —+1st.GC+ (if he runs??)
  AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 8-10-12 (if he runs???)- Daniel did mention him.
  ERIC’S CHARM (FR) 12-10-09
  CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 10-10-11

  So all miinnehom’s short list were in Daniel’s short list of 18.

  Looks like the top 4 to me I will back them all if they run) but we are very uncertaim about 2 (AFO and WOA) and GTL will only run if fit(and if fit I think he will run)

• 
  

  #231

  Daniel Edwards
  February 26th, 2010 11:17

  Air Force One wasnt on the top 20 I posted the other day. He’s only had one run this season, and I seem to recall him not placing, so he’ll have lost out points for those two things alone.

• 
  

  #232

  The Stayer
  February 26th, 2010 11:21

  Daniel,

  What are you classing as a “place” here? Are you talking from a betting point of view or a top 3 or top 4 finish regardless of field size? AFO was 3rd behind Tricky Trickster and Niche Market the other day but it were only 6 runners.

• 
  

  #233

  Daniel Edwards
  February 26th, 2010 11:26

  Apologies – a ‘place’ (for these purposes) is top 3.

  My memory has obviously let me down here, but I can assure you, having checked, his score is correct.

  He also loses small points for age of course.

  Obviously another run between now and then would boost his score.

• 
  

  #234

  The Stayer
  February 26th, 2010 11:26

  Iris De Balme will have top weight in the Eider tomorrow. I see Curran has stuck his 7lb claimer on which i’m quite pleased about. As he’s still on the comeback trail it will be a big ask even under 11-05 so i’ll be hoping for him to complete first and foremost and to hopefully finish in the top4.

• 
  

  #235

  Pablo
  February 26th, 2010 11:28

  Crisp – as far as I am aware the GN has been the target for the past 2 years given how well he ran in the 2008 GN.

  Therefore to get the rating down to 147 while the horse is still in pretty good form over trips short of his best is some achievement I think.

  He’s won >£300k in prize money so why not try to get another big Aintree payout rather than win another smaller pot which will affect his mark? He won £85k for coming 3rd in 2008, 2nd was £170k and the winner got £450k.

  My view is that he goes there with a real chance of top 4 again or even winning.

• 
  

  #236

  Daniel Edwards
  February 26th, 2010 11:28

  IRIS DE BALME, winner of the Coral Scottish Grand National in 2007, will carry top weight in the Totesport.com Eider Handicap Chase at Newcastle on Saturday following the defections of Halcon Genelardais and Eric’s Charm.

  The weights have risen 10lb after Alan King opted not tosend Halcon Genelardais north.

  Last year’s winner and ante-post favourite Merigoruns off 11st 2lb, while the Ferdy Murphy-trained Galant Nuit shoulders 11st 5lb.

  Philson Run, who won the Eider in 2006, is on 10st 3lb and Dom D’Orgeval, the subject of a major move in the betting in this week, is on 10st 11lb.

  18 horses have been declared for the 4m1f marathon.

• 
  

  #237

  Daniel Edwards
  February 26th, 2010 11:29

  Sorry for the repetiton there.

  Also imnportantly Eric’s Charm has been withdrawn from that race.

• 
  

  #238

  andy
  February 26th, 2010 11:32

  morgan be + bold ransom for the eider!

• 
  

  #239

  The Stayer
  February 26th, 2010 11:34

  I noticed that Eric’s Charm was withdrawn. I really can’t fancy him given his last 4 runs left-handed have resulted in failures to complete. Doesn’t have an entry at Cheltenham so looks unlikely to prove me wrong before the big day unless he goes in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster next weekend.

• 
  

  #240

  Daniel Edwards
  February 26th, 2010 11:35

  Good – that’s one of those ‘ I shouldnt really back him but im worried about him’ sorts that we can rule out!

• 
  

  #241

  Systemsman
  February 26th, 2010 12:16

  I believe we are now in the 7week count down (from last Saturday) period to the GN.Its important as I believe we are looking for last runs between 3-7weeks prior to the GN?

  Daniel looking forward to your Monday update.

  I’ll risk it and say IRIS DE BALME is another Rambo, overrated and plotted winner of the Scots Nat off a very low weight – up against the big boys on bigger weights he still has it all the prove and no better than many many others so far. Now I’am sure one or two will want to come back on that!

• 
  

  #242

  Showlad
  February 26th, 2010 12:37

  They are intending to run Eric next Sat instead…

• 
  

  #243

  Daniel Edwards
  February 26th, 2010 12:44

  Good gosh damn and other such phrases!

• 
  

  #244

  Showlad
  February 26th, 2010 12:45

  Eider doubtful now, lol…inspection at 2pm.
  Gosh this year is REALLY gonna benefit those with a good few runs in already – Snowy etc.
  It may also have the effect of Chelts being more beneficial as most will really NEED the run rather than pushing it..or more likely it will results in those with less runs than normal still being underprepared for the GN whatever way you cut the cake.

• 
  

  #245

  Daniel Edwards
  February 26th, 2010 12:57

  I just wish the race was tomorrow!! We’re in no man’s land at the moment and its killing me!!

  Still, decs on Tuesday might throw up something to talk about.

• 
  

  #246

  The Stayer
  February 26th, 2010 13:00

  Re: Newcastle, doesn’t sound good. Clerk of the course not optimistic and weather forecast has just said that heavy rain will fall for most of the afternoon I’m f*****g fed-up of the s**t weather we have had this winter.

• 
  

  #247

  Showlad
  February 26th, 2010 13:05

  Re TS we have had winners lower than 140 haven’t we? What was Amberleigh’s?

• 
  

  #248

  Jackie
  February 26th, 2010 13:06

  Glad Eric has an entry, really want to see another run from him.

• 
  

  #249

  Showlad
  February 26th, 2010 13:08

  Totally with you Stayer. First few cancellations and you consider how it affects the bigger picture. Now it is en masse and it REALLY is Pi**ing me off too.
  Those who have won this season (Beat the Boys twice etc) or have had good runs (Snowy etc) are MASSIVELY in on a fitness and race sharp level.
  Crikey hope Chelts is OK…

• 
  

  #250

  Showlad
  February 26th, 2010 13:11

  Important Q: To help see who may run in Irish and who may run in GN, what is the closing date for Irish? As not many seem to show it on their decs.

• 
  

  #251

  Daniel Edwards
  February 26th, 2010 13:35

  Talking of prep runs, by my calculations this lot have had either 1 or 0 so far this season;

  ONE

  Taranis
  Comply or Die
  Irish Invader
  Ballyholland
  Air Force One
  Character Building
  State of Play
  Lennon
  Iris De Balme
  Flintoff
  Oodachee

  ZERO

  Roulez Cool
  Darkness
  Louping d’Ainay
  Follow the Plan
  New Alco
  Mr Pointment
  Trust Fund
  Cerium
  Faasel
  Officier De Reserve

  Bad news perhaps for fans of COD, IDB, Character Building, and Air Force One.

  4-8 runs is a 18/20 stat. So those with just 2 runs so far are more than likely to miss this too.

  They are;

  Black Apalachi
  Tricky Trickster
  Casey Jones
  Nozic
  Possol
  Pablo Du Charmil
  Can’t Buy Time
  Big Fella Thanks
  Deutschland
  Kornati Kid
  Jayo
  Equus Maximus
  Eric’s Charm
  King Johns Castle
  Arbor Supreme
  Kilcrea Castle
  Abbeybraney
  Parsons Legacy
  Glenfinn Captain
  Trabolgan
  Ballytrim
  Kings Advocate

  Those already in the 4-6 bracket (10/10 and 16/20) are;

  Notre Pere
  Our Vic
  Vic Venturi
  One Cool Cookie
  War of Attrition
  Whinstone Boy
  Duers
  Made in Taipan
  Siegemaster
  Le Beau Bai
  Ballyfitz
  Parsons Pistol
  Razor Royale
  Hello Bud
  Knowhere
  Albertas Run
  Mon Mome
  Joe Lively
  Niche Market
  Beat The Boys
  Preists Leap
  Beroni
  Snowy Morning
  Chelsea Harbour
  Gone to Lunch
  Ellerslie George
  Ollie Magern
  Cane Brake
  Royal Rosa
  Mumbles Head
  Chief Dan George
  Offshore Account
  Pak Jack
  Boychuk

• 
  

  #252

  The Stayer
  February 26th, 2010 14:11

  Newcastle off

• 
  

  #253

  Nick Mannion
  February 26th, 2010 14:24

  Yep noted The Stayer and what a bummer but if they had run it maybe that sapping that if IDB had won it could have taken too much out….

  Me thinks with DE’s great list of prep runs that a lot of trainers will be desperate to get a spin in in the next 2 weeks max apart from those who are doing a Chelt/Aintree double…

• 
  

  #254

  Nick Mannion
  February 26th, 2010 14:30

  Can I add am glad am not the only person who dreams about the race Daniel!!
  And if we are after Aintree brownie points I was an extra in Champions (at Aintree) and since my first bet in 1968 (put on by my Auntie…Moidores Token …2nd) I have had only 3 winners (very very poor..) but an astonishing 26 2nds (yes Red Rum the only 2 years it was second!!) and only once never had a horse in the first 4 (Red M’s year…).
  So if anyone wants to know the runner up…watch this space!!

• 
  

  #255

  Daniel Edwards
  February 26th, 2010 14:31

  That is quite an astonishing record Nick!!

  Giving away your age too

• 
  

  #256

  The Stayer
  February 26th, 2010 14:32

  Maybe Daniel. I guess Newcastle has been in doubt all week as I think on Mon/Tues Curran said that if it was off IDB would run in the Grimthorpe next weekend. There are still options for him.

  I see that Arbor Supreme and Snowy Morning run at Leopardstown on Sunday. AS carries top-weight in the 2m5f handicap chase (3:15) and SM goes in the 2m1f Gd2 (4:20). Snowy is up against some class animals in Tranquil Sea, Aran Concerto and Made In Taipan. Ballyholland runs in that race too.

• 
  

  #257

  Showlad
  February 26th, 2010 14:33

  Right on Nick
  Anyone know when the cut off is for Irish Nat? Just wondering as I said earlier (echoing Daniel, Neil etc – “Can you hear me” lol)when we can view those choosing Fairyhouse instead.

• 
  

  #258

  Daniel Edwards
  February 26th, 2010 14:34

  Yeah spotted that too – To be honest I dont think either race will tell us anything about either horse. Bar them picking up an injury (touch wood) im not going to be put off at all by what I see, given the short trips.

  Textbook Aintree warm ups really, arent they.

  Any of the other main players got any entries this weekend?

• 
  

  #259

  Daniel Edwards
  February 26th, 2010 14:40

  Im not sure Showlad im afraid. I dont know how they work over there.

• 
  

  #260

  The Stayer
  February 26th, 2010 14:42

  I’m not too sure either Showlad.

  Daniel, had a quick look through the weekend cards and now we have lost Newcastle I think the only National clues are going to come from the races mentioned at Leopardstown and the Racing Post Chase.

• 
  

  #261

  Daniel Edwards
  February 26th, 2010 14:52

  Yeah, on a quick inspection it seems that way to me too

• 
  

  #262

  Neil S
  February 26th, 2010 15:00

  My opinion is that a lot of grand national candidates will be running over hurdles in the next few weeks, Just to be race fit.

• 
  

  #263

  Pablo
  February 26th, 2010 15:01

  These rated 140 and above not entered at Cheltenham by number of runs so far this season from 1st September 2009; * = entered this weekend:

  Runs; Horse
  6; Conna Castle
  5; Le Beau Bai
  5; One Cool Cookie
  5; Vic Venturi
  4; Cane Brake
  4; Dooneys Gate
  3; Dream Alliance
  3; King Johns Castle
  3; Maljimar
  3; Royal County Star
  2; Arbor Supreme*
  2; Backstage
  2; Big Fella Thanks
  2; Black Apalachi
  2; Equus Maximus
  2; Erics Charm
  2; Nozic
  1; Ballyholland*
  1; Iris De Balme
  1; Irish Invader
  1; Pablo Du Charmil
  1; State Of Play
  0; Darkness
  0; Follow The Plan
  0; Louping D´Ainay
  0; Roulez Cool
  0; Trust Fund

  There doesn’t seem to be a standout horse among that lot – maybe their final preps will tell us more (if they haven’t already run in them)

  Perhaps Cheltenham will provide the winner this year?

  Patience may be a virtue but it isn’t much fun…

• 
  

  #264

  Pablo
  February 26th, 2010 15:05

  Ballyholland should be 0

• 
  

  #265

  Daniel Edwards
  February 26th, 2010 15:06

  Yep – a fair chance Cheltenham will throw up the winner this year.

  Given that we have lost a whole month of racing this season, more horses will run at cheltenham and then at Aintree than usual, increasing the chances of it happening.

  It’s hardly a rare occurence anyway.

  Cane Brake is the one to have off that list me thinks.

• 
  

  #266

  Pablo
  February 26th, 2010 15:07

  No sorry Ballyholland is 1 but Backstage should be 1 also

• 
  

  #267

  Pablo
  February 26th, 2010 15:29

  Looking at those with 3 or more runs:

  6; Conna Castle – no chase win over 3m+, fell today
  5; Le Beau Bai – soft going only
  5; One Cool Cookie – unlikely starter, not well-handicapped
  5; Vic Venturi – great form but doesn’t look that well handicapped and very short in the betting
  4; Cane Brake – pulled up last time, doubts that retains ability (although I have backed)
  4; Dooneys Gate – badly handicapped, doubtful stayer, fell today, unlikely to turn up
  3; Dream Alliance – think he wants soft, desperately poor run last time, possibly ran his race for the season
  3; King Johns Castle – trainer is a maestro but doesn’t look the same horse of 2 years ago
  3; Maljimar – no win over 3m+
  3; Royal County Star – encouraging 3rd in Kerry then very disappointing in Casey Jones race

  VV has held his form all season but I have my doubts that he’s actually good enough

  If it’s soft then Le Beau Bai has a chance otherwise I am hoping that Cane Brake shows some form

  Else it’s all eyes on Cheltenham!

• 
  

  #268

  Nick Mannion
  February 26th, 2010 16:01

  Pablo re Dream A.

  Was at Haydock on Sat and was v soft to testing and DA ran no sort of race and jock was v downbeat when he jogged him back in. Not read anything in the press to say there was a reason for such a poor run.

  Re my age Dan! My b/day is end of march so always had party on last Sat of March and a cheap party game of mums was to cut up all the runners of GN and deal them out to each kid (we got about 4 or 5 each) and the winner got a prize…and I got hooked for life!!

  Since 68 backed 1 horse out of my pocket money and my auntie put 5p ew on another for me. From ’76 when was working backed 3 horses and from 90′ have backed 4 so 26 seconds not that impressive tho fromSpecify (71 one of my 3 winners I had every second horse till Aldaniti…another of my winners!!)
  I used to be able to reel them off Gay Trip…Crisp…L’escargot…Rummy…Rummy…Churchtownboy (unbelievably 2 days after winning the Topham)…Sebastian…Zongalero…Rough & Tumbl….arrrggghhhhh!!!

• 
  

  #269

  Daniel Edwards
  February 26th, 2010 16:08

  Dont put yourself down!! Every 2nd for 10 years is quite a feat, if a somewhat frustrating one!

  My secretary, in Silver Birch’s year I seem to recall, backed 1st,2nd,3rd,5th,6th….and only those 5.

  How is that for shooting!

• 
  

  #270

  Daniel Edwards
  February 26th, 2010 16:14

  Who was your 3rd winner then Nick?

  I’ve also had 3 winners in my time;

  Bindaree (first bet on the National…honest) £5 on the nose….man £100 was a lot of money to an 18 year old in those days!

  Hedgehunter and then COD…

  note;

  2002
  2005
  2008

  So im not due a win until next year!!

  In my defence, im not sure I had a bet in 2003. My love for racing didnt really start until my university days. I do remember going sh*t or bust on Point Barrow the year he fell at the first (2007) and backed him and only him.

  I had just started working in London, spent most the week looking through the card, got my £20 out on payday, strolled into Romford Ladrbokes, got my 10/1 and was most excited….

  What an anti-climax….

  Oh and my flat mate coming home and telling me he had backed Silver Birch, but not each way!

  Memories though!

  Cmon, everybody share theirs – I think we’ve done the stats to death for now.

• 
  

  #271

  Daniel Edwards
  February 26th, 2010 16:16

  Sorry, that should of course read Philson Run (4th at 100/1)

  I got a bit over excited writing the above, sorry!

• 
  

  #272

  Nick Mannion
  February 26th, 2010 16:20

  Wll those in the 70′s were not based on any real knowledge, just went for proven Aintree performers…which seemed to matter far more back then (Sebastian fell at Bechers year before his 2nd).

  Maybe what am saying is the more I (we?) know, the less easy it has become!!

  Never had 2 placed horses and never had more than 2 out of 4 finish so I could be a jinx too! hehe

  The only time ever been on the day we had been backing a horse a/p off the boards since Jan as its form was superb and if there had been exchanges back then I bet you would only have got 1/50 after the second last….and of course we are going bananas…till Last bl**dy Suspect swished its tail and past Mr Snugfit about 50yds from the line…

  And of course my mates all said ‘why we not surprised…was bound to be second with Mannos record… We did well tho as had backed it from 66′s ew all the way down to about 12′s on the day

• 
  

  #273

  Nick Mannion
  February 26th, 2010 16:27

  Other winner was Rough Quest…taking advantage of the no penalty terms (which I disagree with) as had been placed in the GC and was thrown in at the weights so easy enough to pick it out…but then again so had Garrison S…yup anotherof my seconds!!

• 
  

  #274

  Nick Mannion
  February 26th, 2010 16:34

  And last of the old gits memories…after the 67 race and the big pile up at the 23rd…on Mon at school we organised a game where 3 or 4 kids made a ‘bridge’ end to end (yes the 23rd…) and about 25 of us all ran full pelt at it with delib. aim to cause a pile up…nutters or what…but as said hooked/obsessed for life…

  And back to our first crossing swords and me sticking by Welsh Nat horses for GN 16 months (not 4) after…I have had 50/1 ew on Silver By Nature for 2011 (after Sat)…you read it here first….Of course its a shoe in for second….;)

• 
  

  #275

  Daniel Edwards
  February 26th, 2010 16:38

  Who took that bet??!

• 
  

  #276

  Daniel Edwards
  February 26th, 2010 16:45

  Wasn’t it John Francombe who said on the morning of the National, live on the Morning Line;

  “I can tell you one horse that won’t be winning today…Rough Quest!”

  Wasn’t he the first in 60 years or so to place in the GC and then win the GN?

• 
  

  #277

  Nick Mannion
  February 26th, 2010 16:49

  I guess because nobody has mentioned it in stats and was rained off this year…has the old Great Yorkshire at Donny got a good record as a GN trial??

• 
  

  #278

  Nick Mannion
  February 26th, 2010 16:55

  My mate manages the local Ladbrks…all my a/p bets with him…however strange some may be!!!

  Yes RQ was but Garrison S had won the GC and a not far beaten second (only carrying 11-1) in 91. Cant remember quite what RQ caried as not got the Reg Green books to hand but 10-10 rings a bell.

• 
  

  #279

  Pablo
  February 26th, 2010 16:56

  You’re right the more you look at it the harder it gets!

  It used to be easy to narrow the field – wait for 48 hour decs, look at those under 11’5 with a win over 3m and a few prep runs, preferably with form over the fences or in a big race (and trained in Ireland a bonus)

  Maybe it still is and that’s why I am not betting seriously until after Cheltenham at the earliest

  I think I’m finished with AP betting apart from 100/1+ – too many bookies offering too skinny prices and just following Betfair prices – actually rarely any competition at all – can’t actually place a decent bet with most of them

• 
  

  #280

  Nick Mannion
  February 26th, 2010 17:00

  Actually RQ had 10-7….impossible not to back….and the top wt was only 11-7 and although the going was described as ‘good’ was nearer firm….and only 27 (yes how times change!!) ran and a very young Don McCain had a spin round and finished last!!

  Actually many trainers are usually ex jocks so most had a ride in the race …even Venitia W who I think fell at first CT or Valentines in her 1 ride…and Jonjo…best jock of his generation with John F had 10 rides I think and never got round once!!

• 
  

  #281

  whitearab
  February 26th, 2010 17:04

  I know that it is largely covered by number of runs and chase starts but I think the clear trend in National winners over the last 8 or 9 years anyway is quite battle hardened types. Mon Mome, Comply or Die, Silver Birch, Hedgehunter, Numbersixvaleverde, Amberleigh House etc. They were all pretty battle hardened chasers with lots of experience.

  Nothing is forever and so maybe this year a Tricky Trickster, Big Fella Thanks or Possol type will win the race but I just can’t see it myself.

• 
  

  #282

  Pablo
  February 26th, 2010 17:15

  Fascinated to see how Kilcrea Castle gets on tomorrow – he is a very good jumper and travels really well – could be a stats-buster on the dosage (good influences in Busted and Gala Performance)

• 
  

  #283

  Nick Mannion
  February 26th, 2010 17:21

  Agree Pablo. Was an Irish horse till Nov and he fits the trend of last 5 Irish winners (138-144) and nearing my short list if it shows something good tomrrow…

• 
  

  #284

  Pablo
  February 26th, 2010 17:38

  6 weeks tomorrow and counting…

  …very slowly…

• 
  

  #285

  john
  February 26th, 2010 17:43

  This is the list of horses i think can win the national based on weights. In order of best weighted for the national.

  War Of Attrition (IRE)
  Mr Pointment (IRE)
  Seven Is My Number (IRE)
  Snowy Morning (IRE)
  State of Play
  Air Force One (GER)
  Cane Brake (IRE)
  My Will (FR)
  Cerium (FR)

  has anyone any thoughts on these??? I now there is a few that may not run so that will narrow it down for me.

• 
  

  #286

  kj
  February 26th, 2010 17:48

  was irish til nov! hee, hee
  yes very interested wheres KC run?
  another bloody horse with my initials, with ‘KC’ Jones & KJC thats 3, not easy just picking one of those, maybe I should pick all 3 like last yrs lucky double letters feeling, damn, blast!
  Some great posts last several days, glad to see some of you keepin going. Shame about newcastle tmw and if anything runs sunday without taking off! I’ll be suprised, its ‘windy miller’

• 
  

  #287

  kj
  February 26th, 2010 18:07

  oh sorry, I should point out thats not kj ‘oddsence’ prediction its met office official prediction sunday is very windy. Looks like tornado styley to me,. racing ever called off due to er wind problems?

• 
  

  #288

  DomiDarko
  February 26th, 2010 18:20

  I only started using stats about 2 years ago. Before that my bets were purely on gut instinct, weight and stamina. I only ever bet on 1 or 2 horses max. This year i have one. I still have an ok record tho.

  1st’s
  2006 NUMBERSIXVALVERDE
  2000 PAPILLON
  1997 LORD GYLLENE
  1992 PARTY POLITICS

  I also had four 2nds and two 3rds. So thats 10 won or placed in 18 since my first bet on Garrison Savannah. I need another win!

• 
  

  #289

  john
  February 26th, 2010 18:24

  Think i should describe my theroy. The key winning a handicap is to have a which has a weight well belo its ability simply. So i set up a spreadsheet looking at the difference in OR and Best RPR posted on each horses rp profile and not the one on the rp grand national card. An tied to determine how many pounds well in a horse is based on the top weight. Described this in a previous post but never got a reaction. Below is the list of horses that 1lb or better i believe are best of in the weight. You can then narrow this dwon by taking away horses that won’t get in and that have over 11-6 because any horse over that will have a difficult job no matter how well in they are.

  Trabolgan (IRE) 10-3 137 154 168 16
  Knowhere (IRE) 10-4 138 140 165 12
  War Of Attrition (IRE) 11-1 149 121 173 9
  Mr Pointment (IRE) 10-7 141 — 163 7
  Seven Is My Number (IRE)10-13 147 152 168 6
  Snowy Morning (IRE) 10-13 147 165 167 5
  State of Play 10-11 145 — 165 5
  Faasel (IRE) 10-3 137 110 157 5
  Air Force One (GER) 10-12 146 138 165 4
  Cane Brake (IRE) 10-8 142 — 161 4
  Glenfinn Captain (IRE) 10-4 138 107 157 4
  Our Vic (IRE) 11-8 156 167 174 3
  My Will (FR) 11-2 150 147 166 1

  I think though the key to using this is can a horse perform to its best previous rating????? The biggest problem with this sort of analysis is though it may miss out horses with an under rated best rpr. But i do believe a horse must be well in to win and that is the key.

• 
  

  #290

  john
  February 26th, 2010 18:27

  sorry table didn’t turn ou right in the last post here it is again hopefully better??

  Think i should describe my theroy. The key winning a handicap is to have a which has a weight well belo its ability simply. So i set up a spreadsheet looking at the difference in OR and Best RPR posted on each horses rp profile and not the one on the rp grand national card. An tied to determine how many pounds well in a horse is based on the top weight. Described this in a previous post but never got a reaction. Below is the list of horses that 1lb or better i believe are best of in the weight. You can then narrow this dwon by taking away horses that won’t get in and that have over 11-6 because any horse over that will have a difficult job no matter how well in they are.
  Name wt or ts rpr ib diff
  Trabolgan (IRE) 10-3 137 154 168 16
  Knowhere (IRE) 10-4 138 140 165 12
  War Of Attrition (IRE) 11-1 149 121 173 9
  Mr Pointment (IRE) 10-7 141 — 163 7
  Seven Is My Number (IRE)10-13 147 152 168 6
  Snowy Morning (IRE) 10-13 147 165 167 5
  State of Play 10-11 145 — 165 5
  Faasel (IRE) 10-3 137 110 157 5
  Air Force One (GER) 10-12 146 138 165 4
  Cane Brake (IRE) 10-8 142 — 161 4
  Glenfinn Captain (IRE) 10-4 138 107 157 4
  Our Vic (IRE) 11-8 156 167 174 3
  My Will (FR) 11-2 150 147 166 1

  I think though the key to using this is can a horse perform to its best previous rating????? The biggest problem with this sort of analysis is though it may miss out horses with an under rated best rpr. But i do believe a horse must be well in to win and that is the key.

• 
  

  #291

  Showlad
  February 26th, 2010 18:27

  OK guys I gave you my lil tip on Chief Dan George during the week – anyone with any RPC tips? Ground will be soft they say.

• 
  

  #292

  kj
  February 26th, 2010 18:29

  26 2nds Nick wow! hope you had some e/w at good prices. I had a run til last yr of 7 wins, twice definately I backed just 1 horse, twice I had 3 of 4 placers inc the winner. But this will make you feel better I had pocket money on them! last yr much more money and horses and stats and study,…no win
  My first win was Red Rum, very young with my pocket money. Then Corbiere, Party Politics, did West Tip win? god my memory anyway, didn’t get back into it til 2000 Papillion, was young and having fun! been very lucky, but it was sooooo easy! I miss those days especially having 1 horse and it wins, unbeatable feeling.

• 
  

  #293

  kj
  February 26th, 2010 18:45

  when I said pocket money I meant little money £1-£2, I’m not peter pan or something, I have grown up… kind of! well if Nick is describing himself as an old git! what happened to my middle age?
  I still have no words of wisdom this yr, don’t think we should rule out MM on the basis of him winning in your dreams, think he still has a chance of 2nd!

• 
  

  #294

  Nick Mannion
  February 26th, 2010 19:24

  Hi Kj…yup 50 before the race this yr…4 weeks and NOT counting!!

  Yes Mr Snugfit we did v. well out of as had backed it e/w all the way down from 66′w. Of the others most were in top 5 or 6 of betting but all backed e/w. Think Sebastian was 25/1 and Just So had at 40′s a/p and 28′s on the day and a nibble a/p on McKelvie at 33′s…other than that no big wins!!

  John re your list I know some people disagree with me on this but Mr Pointment is now owned by the Wilsons who just buy crocked or on the dongrade chasers with a high enough mark to prob. get a run in the GC and National for a day out. Note Mr P (and Cerium) have no prep runs as they dont enter them with a best chance of winning by running preps (by not running they preserve their mark)…they are just loadsamonies who want a day out…so Mr P. I can’t fancy in all of my 50 (nearly!) years!!

  Of the others Our Vic really impressed me atHaydock on sat but poss too much wt and unknown at the distance. Trabolgan looked past its best when UR the other day.

  SM is on a lot of peoples lists (stats based) and that looks the pick of your bunch!!

• 
  

  #295

  Nick Mannion
  February 26th, 2010 19:33

  Also KJ by having a horse in first 4 apart from 1 year have always had that unbeatable pit ofthe tummy churning thrill of ‘a run for my money’ esp as 2 out of my 4 usually dont make the second circuit so you are watching 1 set of colours…I may be wrong but think colour trans. started in ’69 (Rondetto 3rd…only because had been taken to Haydock for first time that winter..maybe was the Greenalls meet and had backed Rondetto in to a place that day).

  Anyone looking for the second this year the only bet have had so far is 66′s re King Johns Castle (ew)…yes, yes of course I backed him he year he was second…daft question!!

• 
  

  #296

  Nick Mannion
  February 26th, 2010 19:42

  Another foolish thought…but nobody but nobody mentions jocks stats. Maybe its age but there was always the odd jock who had fantastic riding record/s from Brian Fletcher through John White and Richard Dunwoody (mostly on 1 horse!!) and was always worth a second lookat what they were riding.

  I guess Ruby W would be the most prolific (wins/places/getting round) in the 00′s…..

• 
  

  #297

  Showlad
  February 26th, 2010 19:49

  Really lovely hearing your stories Nick, Daniel and KJ.
  Though top prize goes to Nick not only for his stories, but STILL managing to sneak in his ‘win Welsh one year win GN next’ throbbing, persistent stat lol.

• 
  

  #298

  Showlad
  February 26th, 2010 19:49

  OK my great value tips for tomorrow’s big race is Private Be and Piraya.

• 
  

  #299

  Speedyseagull
  February 26th, 2010 20:00

  Does anyone know why Casey Jones was a non runner on the Bobbyjo last Saturday?

• 
  

  #300

  Nick Mannion
  February 26th, 2010 20:18

  Sad man does the stats non shock::

  Jocks given 12 pts for 1st, 8 for second, 5 for 3rd, 4 for 4th, 3 for 5th and 2 for 6th and 1 for getting round…last 10 GN’s.

  Jock – pts – finishes.

  Ruby Walsh 46 (8)
  Timmy Murphy 33 (5)
  Barry Geraghty 30 (7)
  Graham Lee 18 (3)
  AP McCoy 17 (5)
  N Madden 15 (3)

  The rst not much…surprising how many ‘big name’ jocks dont get round much (Choc Thornton. R Johnson, Tom Scu never in top 6) but hon mention for Brian Harding 9 pts but 5 finishes.

  Right, off out for a pint!!

• 
  

  #301

  Desert Orchid
  February 26th, 2010 20:54

  Did I miss something on Royal County Star? My 37p on Betfair has been scratched as if it is a non runner!!
  And as for the dreams of The National, I had one a few weeks back and Mon Mome won too!! He was the only finisher in my dream though!!

• 
  

  #302

  Speedyseagull
  February 26th, 2010 21:05

  A very good point Dessie. My matched odds are now listed as 1 for all my RCS bets. Worrying, as he is 2nd in my ‘top 6′ list. Can see no mention of why this is

• 
  

  #303

  Showlad
  February 26th, 2010 21:11

  What are they playing with RCS on Betfair – somebody find out…
  My bets too now showing as if he’s withdrawn and next decs stage is not until next Tues…has to be an error

• 
  

  #304

  Speedyseagull
  February 26th, 2010 21:18

  I’ve just e-mailed Betfair. May not get a response until tomorrow but will let you know

• 
  

  #305

  Desert Orchid
  February 26th, 2010 21:24

  Cheers Speedy. RCS is a horse that has been mentioned a lot on here so thought I would point it out. Doesn’t really matter to me as I only got a very small part of my bet matched but I haven’t read or seen anything about him being ruled out.

• 
  

  #306

  Showlad
  February 26th, 2010 21:47

  Phoned betfair too re RCS – has to be a mistake – they won’t take anyone out until next Tuesday’s withdrawal stage.

• 
  

  #307

  miinnehoma
  February 27th, 2010 00:32

  crisp, you are dead right, there are some concerns about Snowy but I don’t know what more I can say to you except, with 10.13 etc. he must be in there with a good chance and that’s more than I can say about 95% of the others under 11st. Like most, I am looking for 4 or so crackers that have a fighting chance.
  The only one above 11st. I like is Dream Alliance – will give him a second chance.

  There is one that does worry me and that’s – War Of Attrition – have we any news.

  Apart from the Hcap score stat 1-0 and his sire thing, does anyone have a 19/19 stat(old or new) that says War Of Attrition can’t win the GN.

• 
  

  #308

  Pablo
  February 27th, 2010 00:54

  Strong Gale in breeding? Apart from that…

• 
  

  #309

  miinnehoma
  February 27th, 2010 03:19

  Yes Pablo I see that, not sure about this pedigree thing. His figures suggest he would get 6 miles but then look at Mon Mome and a few others.
  I thought with a few runs under his belt and a low wt. he should have run better in the Hennessy but maybe his first Hcap was a shock to his system. Not sure what was the plan in that race. I remember thinking at the time, blimey he’s up the front right from the jump off – what’s afoot.

  If mouse sticks to his word, then problem solved.

• 
  

  #310

  miinnehoma
  February 27th, 2010 04:12

  Hello Bud down to OR137.

  Snowy with RPR 156 in Ryanair card, what’s that about, thought he was 152.

• 
  

  #311

  Pablo
  February 27th, 2010 08:51

  Sometimes they show best recent RPR and sometimes it’s adjusted for the weight to be carried in the race – always best to check for yourself – takes time but weight-adjusted can be misleading – depends on how far back you read the form

• 
  

  #312

  Me6
  February 27th, 2010 09:26

  Royal County Star is listed as doubtful in the entries on the Racing Post site, so it isn’t just betfair.

  Must be injured or dead, I’d have thought.

• 
  

  #313

  Neil S
  February 27th, 2010 09:29

  Working out the national at the moment, using a slightly different approach. Will post my results when ready

• 
  

  #314

  SILVER BIRCH
  February 27th, 2010 09:36

  Yes . I had RCS as my number one pick and hes totally diSappeared out of the lists and all my ante post betS disappeared .. howl misery – is he dead or seriously injured or something ??.. back to the drawing board again …!

• 
  

  #315

  The Stayer
  February 27th, 2010 09:59

  As Me6 says, the RP site have him down as ‘doubtful’ so I would expect the horse to be taken out of the race next week. I’ve not heard anything but he hasn’t run since December when he fell in a X-Country chase at Cheltenham so maybe he picked up an injury there.

• 
  

  #316

  Ewok
  February 27th, 2010 10:32

  Why take him out of the Market before he is pulled out tho? Don’t they usually leave injured horses in and let them drift in price, like forpadyplasterer and mikael dhaguenet for example?

  Would love to know what Moise Morris is thinking right now, is he going to leave WOA in or not? Watch those odds tumble if he does. Cmon mouse do it!!!!

• 
  

  #317

  Maureen
  February 27th, 2010 10:34

  I’ve given up trying to find the winner this year; my aim is that every horse I’ve backed ante post [the list is rising] actually runs and that some of the ones with big prices start much much shorter on the day of the race. That, to me, is a result. Sifting through the horses that may or may not run is a challenge in itself. [eg back Phillip Hobbs or Alan King at your peril; Dream Alliance being an exception this year].

• 
  

  #318

  Showlad
  February 27th, 2010 10:52

  RCS is a huge ante-post blow for me..oh well. Hope he’s OK..

  Racing Post chase today team? For me Private Be is great value and if Piraya can maintain form is also great value.

• 
  

  #319

  Showlad
  February 27th, 2010 10:54

  Well I tipped Private Be to you all last night when his odds were 18s..this morning his odds are in half..here’s hoping

• 
  

  #320

  The Stayer
  February 27th, 2010 11:00

  I think it’s difficult to see past the top two in the market and top two in the handicap in the Racing Post Chase. If Kilcrea Castle is as good as people are saying he is he should probably win this or go close at the very least, especially as Miss Mitch doesn’t run. The presence of MDB and Nacarat make the handicap a bit top heavy and there are some very exposed horses in there. He’s getting about 20lbs from the top weight and only giving 6lb to the bottom, so if he does see out 3m on soft ground he looks the one to beat.

  I’ve been looking for a decent betting opportunity but outside the top two in the market and top two in the weights it looks a bit of a muddle. With there only being three places on offer I might not have a bet but if I do it will probably be on Oedipe. His last run at Sandown was his best in a while and he’s 6lbs lower in the race this year. He looks to be the one most likely to get in amongst the top 4 in the market.

• 
  

  #321

  Giant
  February 27th, 2010 11:48

  Have backed 4 winners in my time.

  Rough Quest, Monty’s Pass, Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde.

  Suffering a drought at the minute so hoping Snowy, Big Fella, Cane or State of Play do the goods this year!

• 
  

  #322

  Systemsman
  February 27th, 2010 12:40

  Had a look at SM and AS running in Ireland on Sunday. As stated by someone earlier these are clearly nice prep runs for the GN at very short distances designed to sharpen up the horse ready for the fast pace of the GN. Its nice to see a trainer get it so spot on for SM at least. AS still wont have that other 24f chase or more race he needs for the 30/30 stats (but hes so close I have always given him the benefit of the doubt for it anyway).

  So long at they dont get hurt and dont finish last 100L behind I’ll be happy – dont expect a win, its for the exercsie only.

  I would presume these are their last runs before the GN? (if not I bet they end up being anyway).

• 
  

  #323

  Neil S
  February 27th, 2010 12:45

  Maureen, Dream Alliance is still being aimed at national. Phil Hobbs is at a loss to explain DA poor performance last week, but stated that he puts in a poor performance from time to time. He doesn’t seemed to be concerned about it. As for his other runners, two wouldn’t make the cut and Karnito Kid (or whatever it’s called ) hangs in the balance and depends on his next run.

• 
  

  #324

  Neil S
  February 27th, 2010 12:55

  Early days, yet and not done full field, but what do people reckon to one of the previous winners winning again. I know both Mon Mome & Comply Or Die have been burdened with weight and Silver Birch is now a teenager and extremely likely to miss the cut. However I don’t think it’s a forlorn hope, especially Comply Or Die.

• 
  

  #325

  kj
  February 27th, 2010 13:39

  Its impossible to rule out a weight bearing win from one of the many class acts, and course specialists, previous winners could hold the advantage, but like I’ve said before something with <11st keeps flying past in my thoughts and is more than likely.

  I’d love a previous winner to win, last yr nearly happened, which leads me to the question, COD possibly only 1 prep this yr, trainer not worried about that, can he get him fit enough at home?
  I know last yr he ran badly in a couple of preps, then was sick?! then ground wrong…. then ran well in the GN,… so which way do we read Pipes lack of concern?

  Infact, which trainers, do we think are best at home training?
  and importantly this yr, which yards have been frozen for months and horses have had a badly interrupted fitness program and should therefore be avoided!?

• 
  

  #326

  Pablo
  February 27th, 2010 13:54

  http://www.britishhorseracing.com/goracing/blogs/head_of_handicapping.asp

  Mr Smith explains the weights and what he’s done to the shape of the race since 1999

  Neil – I’m in two minds about Mon Mome – either he was a brilliant winner who should really be running off 161, which makes him 6 lb well-in – or the form of the race was rubbish last year and I should look elsewhere.

  COD possibly a better place bet than win bet I think

• 
  

  #327

  The Stayer
  February 27th, 2010 15:30

  Kilcrea Castle was very disappointing in the Racing Post Chase just now. Lots of positive vibes coming from connections over the last few weeks and I know a lot of people fancied him today and as a National dark horse. I can’t see him lining up at Aintree after that performance.

• 
  

  #328

  kj
  February 27th, 2010 15:31

  well, if todays racing teaches us anything its that if the ground comes up like that at aintree, you need a horse with a big heart that needs 6 miles, is it time to pick the bogsters!!!?
  thought KC was disappointing in the end. RR one of those that wins when you don’t back him. MDB team seem to think he has become cheeky, but was staying on they said, not that I noticed, so maybe further better.

• 
  

  #329

  crisp 73
  February 27th, 2010 16:09

  Miinnehoma- it’s probably nonsense but it could be a check and balance thing over what I think is two key trends, I’ve noticed looking at the last 19 GN winners, those that didn’t win at least two handicap chases, 15/19 – Miinnehoma, Royal Athlete, Bindaree, Comply Or Die – did win at least 2 races at 25f or more/ those that didn’t win at least 2 races at 25f or more, 15/19 – Papillon, Red Marauder, Monty’s Pass, Numbersixvalverde – all won at least 2 handicap chases. War Of Attrition, no handicap chase wins but has won twice at 25f or more.

• 
  

  #330

  kj
  February 27th, 2010 16:25

  with remounting now not allowed and with a testing slippery prospect in my opinion quite probable, trouble in running is therefore much greater, what if nothing is left standing!!! maybe there will be NO winner!!

  Red M and Smarty only 2 left standing that heavy yr + just 2 remounted. But all blundered, hampered or impeded on their way round so not an impossible scenario.
  Solid jumping would be more of an advantage you would think, but as we saw they ran into other horses problems. It will be a minefield.
  I’d have to favour the FR and IRE under 11st2 in this case. Still hoping the Mouse goes to War!

• 
  

  #331

  Pablo
  February 27th, 2010 16:25

  john says:
  February 26, 2010 at 6:27 PM

  Name wt or ts rpr ib diff
  Trabolgan (IRE) 10-3 137 154 168 16
  Knowhere (IRE) 10-4 138 140 165 12
  War Of Attrition (IRE) 11-1 149 121 173 9

  John – how did you calculate the 16 for Trabolgan, 12 for Knowhere & 9 for WOA?

  I think RPR-OR is useful for GN because generally the horses have run in at least 10 chases so that the form has had a chance to settle down a bit

  But I would be interested to find out how you calculated the final column in your table from the previous page

• 
  

  #332

  Systemsman
  February 27th, 2010 16:41

  “kj says:
  February 27, 2010 at 4:25 PM

  With remounting now not allowed and with a testing slippery prospect in my opinion quite probable, trouble in running is therefore much greater, what if nothing is left standing!!! maybe there will be NO winner!!”

  Now there is no way that we can predict the ground for the GN its just as likley to be good as heavy – the Met are hopeless at their forcasts. The only thing you can do is pick a team of runners with the right class/weight and trends that cover all ground options – some of our best runners can run on almost anything and we have seen in the past a GN winner winning on ground that was not neccessarily ideal in his pre race profile – so dont worry too much about the ground unless it comes up a bog in the few days before th race. Concentrate on picking the best runners.

  I’am sure we can get the winners list down to six or so by the eve of the race so hang in there folks!

• 
  

  #333

  puzzled
  February 27th, 2010 17:05

  Should we be considering Razor Royale after todays win? jumping was a bit hit and miss at times but he does meet most trends

• 
  

  #334

  Jackie
  February 27th, 2010 17:13

  Surely KC won’t stay?

• 
  

  #335

  Neil S
  February 27th, 2010 17:26

  Puzzled I might be struggling to find the winner, but I fairly confident its not Razor Royale.

  First thing I thought of when he won, was he’s going to have to jump better than that if he is to win at Aintree.

  No doubt someone will argue with me, on this, but that was my impression.

• 
  

  #336

  Maureen
  February 27th, 2010 17:32

  Horse had a very very hard race today. Think it’ll take him a long time to get over it.

• 
  

  #337

  Nick Mannion
  February 27th, 2010 17:50

  Agree with Maureen but a week or so back posted a stat of the last 40 placed horses in the last 10 GN’s and came up with an average age and rating….and it was 141 and 8yo…..yup Razor Royale!!!

• 
  

  #338

  puzzled
  February 27th, 2010 17:50

  Yes i think i am with you Neil…..jumping is the name of the game and i also think that he might not just get round.

  I am very keen to see how Snowy Morning runs tomorrow, i don’t think it will be a win but a good run all the same will do for me, i have just watched the last 2 runnings of the National and with his weight this year i really do believe that he goes there with a winning chance.

• 
  

  #339

  Nick Mannion
  February 27th, 2010 17:51

  Sorry that should read 8-9 yo

• 
  

  #340

  Neil S
  February 27th, 2010 18:43

  Nick, Razor Royale is also Dosage perfect, but thats the only kind thing I can say of his chances.

• 
  

  #341

  crisp 73
  February 27th, 2010 18:50

  GN winners in Racing Post chase;
  Rhyme N Reason 1st, in same season
  Mr Frisk, 3rd
  Seagram, 3rd
  Royal Athlete 4th
  Rough Quest, 1st, same season
  Red Marauder, 6th

• 
  

  #342

  miinnehoma
  February 27th, 2010 19:50

  crisp – I noticed that about War Of Attrition. What do you think, is he a danger, does he have a chance, does the 1 hcap run blow him out.
  Didn’t King Johns Castle have 1-0 hcap score when he was a close 2nd. in GN. Could be like the FR thing, close, close and then result.

• 
  

  #343

  crisp 73
  February 27th, 2010 20:28

  Miinnehoma – in a hopeless Mavis Riley way, I don’t really know. When those handicap chase run/stats were laid down -Pablo I think- I thought it was one of those clearing of the mists moments. His strike rate is brilliant, well he is a Gold Cup winner after all, won at 25f and 27f. I thought there was more of a ‘Presenting’ issue but nobody seems worried by that now. I’m still not convinced he’ll run, even though there is a thawing in the attitude of his trainer. If he does you’d probably have to have a saver on him on the day?
  Back to Snowy. I’ve won money on him, he’s great and he’s been in my top6 this year but another thing I’ve noticed is that he hasn’t been placed in a 24f or more race since 1st September. Somebody mentioned this as important last year – it might have been Systemsman, 25f or more better – I think that all recent winners have done this. The list of negatives, small maybe, are really building up with Snowy. If he doesn’t win his next prep his win strike rate in chases will be down to 17%. King John’s Castle did come close with no handicap chase wins or wins at 25f plus so, well, stats are just stats, but KJC was in the form of his life leading up to that GN.

• 
  

  #344

  Showlad
  February 27th, 2010 20:42

  You’re hilarious Crisp. ‘Have you been yet?’

  So what do we make of Tricky: dismissable on age and inexperience or is our belief in the stats that he won’t/can’t win faltering?

• 
  

  #345

  DomiDarko
  February 27th, 2010 20:52

  I tipped my first winner on my new website. Razor Royale 27/1 on friday night. Hopefully the first of many.

  http://spankmydonkey.blogspot.com/

• 
  

  #346

  crisp 73
  February 27th, 2010 20:57

  Tricky Trickster’s OR is bigger than his RPR now, does that mean he’s going backwards? I wouldn’t be surprised if a 7yr old did win at some point but I think it’ll be relatively experienced,
  Possol-like though it doesnt seem as though he’ll run in GN this year.

• 
  

  #347

  whitearab
  February 27th, 2010 22:28

  Respect your opinion Crisp but happy you leave the rest of us to sweep up the 33s, 25s, 20s etc. on Snowy if all goes to the W Mullins plan! He is only one of 4 I have and will back, so I am not saying he is a stand out to the extent everyone should agree. But as others have posted, in the under 11st bracket he stands out with only a few others as having the right profile and class for the race. He has been 3rd in the National before as an 8 year old carrying more weight than he has this year and it’s as plain as the nose on your face that he is being laid out for the race. I remain of the view that none of the up and comings will win the race – such as Possol, Tricky, Backstage and I just can’t have Big Fella Thanks either (though that is harder to rationalise!). What happened to Kilcrea Castle and Fistral Beach today shows what it takes to win these big chases handicap chases and in my view that is to be a battle hardened handicapper.

• 
  

  #348

  crisp 73
  February 27th, 2010 22:52

  Whitearab- Snowy Morning has never won a handicap chase!

• 
  

  #349

  whitearab
  February 27th, 2010 23:20

  But he has had 28 lifetime starts and won or been placed in 20 of them! And he has not to run in handicaps very often and when he has the ground has usually been heavy/soft. In my view Mullins has been plotting him up for the National for a while now and that is a major reason why has run in few handicaps and Mullins would not be too keen on him winning many. You can see from his recent runs that they have all been over inadequate distances. I would accept he ran poorly in the Hennessey. But he has a mark of 147 now from a not so long ago high of 162. And his this season’s race form is 6118322, with most of those races over way too short a trip. I think with that record Mullins has played a blinder getting him to a mark of 147.

• 
  

  #350

  miinnehoma
  February 27th, 2010 23:45

  crisp,

  Love your work but at the moment your like a dog with a bone, I’m begining to think you don’t like Snowy – only joking.

  Fair dinkum to you, we need to find the winner, we can’t leave any stone unturned. I don’t care who wins aslong as I have my 3 euro on him but I have to say a few things.

  I just had a quick look and I know you said recent but Papillon didn’t win a 24f or further since September – 8th@24, 7th@28, 5th@16, 4th@16, 9th@21 and 3rd@20.
  Looks like the distances Snowy is running at, I wonder has Ted told Willie how to train Snowy.

  Re- Snowy’s chase strike rate(maybe 17%).

  For weeks I thought and said that Snowy needed to win another chase. This I based on your new stat of -
  20%+ Chase win strike rate or 5 chase wins – which is without doubt 100% accurate but which is also just 1 interpretation of the facts available. I only realized this week, that he does not need to win another chase. I hinted at this a few posts ago but now it seems I have to explain it.

  A few years ago when I came up with the chase 1st/2nd/3rd strike rate I looked at the the simpler Chase win S/R but noticed it was too varied and thats why I stuck with the place S/R.

  You have Amberleigh on 37/5 = 13.5% to Mr. Frisk on 27/13 = 48%, and so with these facts I could qoute a 19/19 stat – every winner had a chase win strike rate of 13.5%+.(Snowy OK)

  This would also be a 100% accurate statement. Snowy at present has 22/4 = 18.18%, if he has 1 or 2 more prep runs and no wins then 23/4 = 17.39% and 24/4 = 16.66% both of which are still above the min. 13.5%+ Amberleigh. It would be low but he would still match the last 19 winners and hence no need for a win.

  crisp I could also say-

  53%+ chase place S/R or 4 chase wins (Snowy OK)
  or
  50%+ chase place S/R or 5 chase wins.(Snowy OK)

  Again each of these statements are 100% accurate, so we have to be very careful with the stats. I prefer straight forward 19/19 stats with no add-ons, no extras because the tack-on sample range is to small(2 horses with 5 and 7 chase wins).

  If Snowy wins then your 20%+C/S/R or 5 chase wins stat becomes 20%+C/S/R or 4 chase wins.

• 
  

  #351

  Neil S
  February 27th, 2010 23:53

  Right then I’ve analysed the race another way (all 111 runners, but some won’t get in).
  I’ve taken 12 stats and applied them how they appeared on the racing post website.

  1 Official Ratings 137 or better.
  2 Weight 11 stone 2 pounds or less.
  3 Stamina 3 miles or more.
  4 Extra Stamina 3 miles 3 furlongs or more or top 3 in any of the major 5 national.
  5 First 3 in a field of 13 plus .
  6 To finish in a field of 18 plus.
  7 At least 3 seasons chasing.
  8 Gone huddling this season.
  9 Breeding non French.
  10 Maximum of 1 win from last 6 Runs.
  11 RPR of 145 plus (used unadjusted figures. )
  12 No headgear for this season. Ive included tongue straps in this.

  To qualify a horse only has to pass 11 of the 12 stats. I’ve tried to be unbiased.

  Comply Or Die
  Snowy Morning
  Character Building
  State Of Play
  Royal County Star
  Kings John Castle*
  Arbor Supreme *
  Cane Brake
  Irish Raptor*
  Mr Pointment
  Parsons Legacy
  Trabolgan

  The ones marked * are perfect on the stats.

• 
  

  #352

  puzzled
  February 28th, 2010 00:20

  I totally agree Whitearab, true enough he has not won a h/cap, but when you look into it more he has only lined up in 4 h/caps….which were 2 Hennessy’s and 2 Grand nationals, he has been highly tried for his first h/caps in fact i can think of no other horse who has been thrown in at the deep end in running in the 2 top h/cap races of the season for their first H/caps and like you i think this has been a long term plan and has been done for a reason, his mark has dropped now to the lowest it has been for 2 years and he will go to Aintree with a fighting chance.

  With the benefit of hindsight did he really go into 2 Hennessy’s against Denman (knowing what we do about Denman now) with a winning chance? i think not.

  Knowing what we know about weight and stats he never had a cat in hels chance of winning last year with 11-8 He went into 2 Nationals with weight over 11st, 2008 with 11-1 and 2009 with 11-8…. in 2008 when he was 3RD he was giving Comply or die 6lb for a 5 1/2 length beating.

  I kinda see it like this…….

  2008 Comply or die 10-9 1st
  Snowy Morning 11-1 3RD
  Mon Mome 10-11 10th

  2009 Mon Mome 11st 1st
  Comply or die 11-6 2nd
  Snowy morning 11-8 8th

  2010 Snowy Morning 10-13
  Comply or die 11-5
  Mon Mome 11-7

  This year he has the beating of the last 2 National winners at the weights, Mon Mome has far too much weight, and at the weights he now has a 6lb pull with Comply or die, who has not had an ideal prep this time round(only 1 run this season thus far) after tomorrows race Snowy would have had 5 runs since November which should see him race fit.

  i have just looked at the recording of last years national and over the last 3 fences Snowy morning was there with a chance (weight just took it’s toll in the end),he was boxed in behind horses on the rail clipped heels and stumbled and looked as if he was going to be brought down between the 2nd and 3rd last, and did well to run into 8th.

  Of course it’s all individual opinions and i could be totally wrong but Mullins is no fool, he has not run him against some of the best there is and tried him so highly in his h/caps for no reason.

  come 4.30pm on race day we might just realise what a long term master plan this has been.

• 
  

  #353

  miinnehoma
  February 28th, 2010 00:41

  Nice one Neil S, looks good but I’m sure the no 8 stat is against the law( gone huddling ).

  Now, I want to say a few words about the Hcap stat. Again it is down to interpretation but this time to be honest it doesn’t look good for WAR, Snowy, GTL or AFO.

  But first we can say-

  Hcap runs 4 – 31 19/19 stat (Snowy OK with 4)
  Hcap wins 0 – 09 19/19 stat (Snowy OK with 0)

  But when you look deeper -

  Hcap runs 6 – 31 18/19 (Snowy not OK)
  Hcap wins 1 – 09 18/19 (Snowy not OK)

  As I said it looks bad for -

  War Of Attrition 1 – 0
  Snowy Morning 4 – 0
  Gone To Lunch 5 – 0
  Air Force One 2 – 0

  How’s that crisp.

• 
  

  #354

  Neil S
  February 28th, 2010 00:50

  Taking that list and applying dosage.
  Ben suggests an 83% probability of the winner having a dosage index of 0.18 to 1.00 and a limit of 1.15 in the past 15 years, where the points have been 10 or more.
  The centre of distribution has a 75% change with the value of -1.00 to 0.00, with a limit of 0.25 same conditions.

  This now makes the list

  10 Comply Or Die (2-0-6-4-0) DP 12 DI 0.71 CD 0.00
  35 Snowy Morning (3-2-9-4-0) DP 18 DI 1.12 CD 0.22
  41 Character Building (5-1-6-4-0) DP 16 DI 1.29 CD 0.44
  46 State Of Play (2-0-11-2-5) DP 20 DI 0.60 CD -0.40
  50 Royal County Star (4-0-4-0-0) DP 8 DI 3.00 CD 1.00 (non runner )
  55 King John Castle (3-6-4-0-1) DP 14 DI 3.67 CD 0.71
  57 Arbor Supreme (4-1-3-4-4) DP 16 DI 0.68 CD -0.19
  58 Cane Brake (7-1-20-8-0) DP 36 DI 1.00 CD 0.19
  65 Mr Pointment (2-0-7-4-5) DP 18 DI 0.44 CD -0.56
  77 Parsons Legacy (4-5-10-0-1) DP 20 DI 2.33 CD 0.55
  89 Trabolgan (3-0-1-4-0) DP 8 DI 0.78 CD 0.25

  The numbers are where they appear in the full list.

• 
  

  #355

  Neil S
  February 28th, 2010 00:52

  Meant gone hurdling.

• 
  

  #356

  Neil S
  February 28th, 2010 01:12

  That gives us a list using stats and dosage of:
  Comply Or Die
  State Of Play
  Arbor Supreme
  Mr Pointment

  As being extremely likely.

  Snowy Morning
  Cane Brake
  Trabolgan

  As being probable

  Character Building
  King John Castle
  Parsons Legacy

  As being extremely unlikely

  Royal County Star
  Non runner.

• 
  

  #357

  Neil S
  February 28th, 2010 01:31

  Sorry forgot Irish Raptor dosage (1-4-8-3-0) DP 16 DI 1.29 CD 0.19 this will place IR in the extremely unlikely category.

• 
  

  #358

  Bri
  February 28th, 2010 02:01

  Neil S forgive me if i have misunderstood your 12 number stats but some of them seem irrelevant i.e No french breeding, No Headgear this season.

  I think its time we went back to basics. I remember last year we had the 12 stats of christmas as all GN winners had got certain stats before december.

  If we go back to these then i think we can easily narrow the field down to 6, if not less.

  If i remember rightly there was 4 of us who came up with a shortlist beginning of january and when compared together 4 horses were on all of them including MM.

  At the moment i have a shortlist of 9 and looking back at the lists posted early doors there are 3 that keep getting repeated time and time again on the lists.

• 
  

  #359

  miinnehoma
  February 28th, 2010 02:50

  Right, will apply the Hcap stat to the 8 below, that I was left with a few days ago -

  WAR OF ATTRITION 11-11-1; —+1st.GC+
  SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 10-10-13; — +3rd.GN+
  AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 8-10-12;
  CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 10-10-11;
  GONE TO LUNCH (IRE) 10-10-11;
  ERIC’S CHARM (FR) 12-10-09;

  PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 12-10-05; -might miss cut
  TRABOLGAN (IRE) 12-10-03 – needs a miracle-no.89

  This would leave 4 -

  Character Building
  Eric’s Charm
  Parsons Legacy
  Trabolgan

  Neil’s dosage figures would suggest that around 3 fences out Character and Parsons would be in the market for a Honda 50 to get home.

  So that leaves 2 -

  If Eric thinks he’s in Sandown at the canal turn, he might take 20 or so out to the right with him, which would then leave my no.1 horse sometime ago, with my biggest bet, no.89 Trabolgan to sneak up the inside and bobs your uncle.

  Miracles do happen and he matches every stat known to Man, Beast and crisp.

• 
  

  #360

  ThaiMark
  February 28th, 2010 04:18

  Crisp/ Miinnehoma/Whitearab, great reasoning about Snowy. When all is said & done he’s been well prepared, is lightly weighted for a 10yr old GN 3rd and is on most lists. Is anybody bold enough to lay SM?

  John – intersting list but the top 4 “well in” are all 11 or 12 year olds and look past their prime. Snowy 6th!!

  Cane was one of my recent AP bets. Similar prep to Montys Pass. Likes give in the ground so conditions should suit. Also on many lists but rarely discussed. This time I am lumping on (ref to the guy who said he couldn’t understand people tipping Church Island & Miko & not backing them). Funny now.

• 
  

  #361

  Neil S
  February 28th, 2010 09:18

  Just thinking someone on here mentioned with not able to remount after departing from their horse what could happen if this occurred to the entire field.

  Either they would finish the race like the Weetabix’s advert (no just messing ),or the race is void (like 1993) and everyone gets their money back.

• 
  

  #362

  Pablo
  February 28th, 2010 09:32

  I think that the number of handicap runs and wins needs to be put into context.

  Here’s the record of GN winners since 1990 in Class 1 handicaps.

  OR; horse; class 1 handicap runs
  147; Mr Frisk; 3,5,P,3,4
  148; Seagram; U,9,P,3,2,9,9,1
  153; Party Politics; 2,2,5
  153; Miinnehoma; 2,2,3
  155; Royal Athlete; 4,F,F,6
  152; Rough Quest; F,1,2,F,1
  149; Lord Gyllene; 2
  147; Earth Summit; 1,2,1,P,5,P,5,1,6,5
  142; Bobbyjo; 1,8,2,1,8,13,5
  139; Papillon; 1,4,11,2,2,6,5,1,10,8
  140; Red Marauder; 1,6,F,10,4,5,5
  136; Bindaree; 7,5,3,6,7
  139; Monty’s Pass; 2,3,P,6,2,3,5,6,1,3
  139; Amberleigh House; 2,BD,1,15,3
  144; Hedgehunter; 1,4,3,1,F
  138; Numbersixvalverde; 1,1,BD,4
  138; Silver Birch; 1,1,P,F
  139; Comply Or Die; P,6,4,P,P
  148; Mon Mome; U,2,2,4,3,4,P,6,10,9,1,8,7,8

  And for SM:

  147; Snowy Morning; F,3,9,8

  SM is rated 147 so if he had won a Class 1 handicap he would, most likely, by now have been weighted out of the race anyway since his rating would, in all likelihood, be bigger than the 155 that Royal Athlete carried to victory.

  Year; OR; Weight carried; Age; Horse; Position
  2008; 145; 11’1; 8; Snowy Morning; 3
  2009; 156; 11’8; 9; Snowy Morning; 9
  2010; 147; 10’13; 10; Snowy Morning; ??

  He’s now only rated 2lb higher than in 2008 – back in the 140s from which he has been competitive in the race before.

• 
  

  #363

  Pablo
  February 28th, 2010 09:44

  Year; OR; Weight carried; Age; Horse; Position
  2001; 134; 10’5; 9; Amberleigh House; BD
  2003; 136; 10’4; 11; Amberleigh House; 3
  2004; 139; 10’10; 12; Amberleigh House; 1
  2005; 146; 11’3; 13; Amberleigh House; 10
  2006; 139; 10’9; 14; Amberleigh House; P

  Amberleigh House did his best from marks in the 130s but was found out (albeit aged 13) from his 146 mark – also had to carry > 11’0. Forget his run as a 14-y-o!

  2002; 136; 10’4; 8; Bindaree; 1
  2003; 143; 10’11; 9; Bindaree; 6
  2004; 147; 11’4; 10; Bindaree; U
  2005; 146; 11’3; 11; Bindaree; 11

  Bindaree also was better off marks in the 130s – he won the Welsh National off 138.

  1992; 153; 10’7; 8; Party Politics; 1
  1993; 166; 11’2; 9; Party Politics; VOID
  1995; 151; 10’2; 11; Party Politics; 2
  1996; 156; 10’11; 12; Party Politics; F

  Party Politics came back 3 years after his win to finish 2nd from a 2lb lower mark back in the 150s (he was going extremely well in the Void race but far too early to tell whether he would have won regardless of what the jockey thought).

• 
  

  #364

  Pablo
  February 28th, 2010 11:22

  Mr Frisk was OR 149 not 147

  I had to take a guess on the class for some of the races for some of the horses in the 1990s where it wasn’t obvious from the RP site

• 
  

  #365

  Maureen
  February 28th, 2010 11:59

  Didn’t Snowy make a bad mistake at the water jump as well last year?

• 
  

  #366

  whitearab
  February 28th, 2010 12:27

  Enjoyed everyone’s post on Snowy and there is merit in all of them. Which is why this is the very best blog on the net! I won’t say anything more on the Snowy debate, it is well documented on here in terms of pros and cons – and there are quite a few cons, I accept. And I don’t want it to turn into Rambo mark 2 after last year’s events!!

• 
  

  #367

  Me6
  February 28th, 2010 12:37

  Had a glance at Willie’s column in the RP today.
  Arbor Supreme is only described as a possible. :0
  Snowy is a deffo, and might have yet another race between today and the race!

• 
  

  #368

  crisp 73
  February 28th, 2010 13:03

  Less than six weeks to go and lots of horses to look at. Snowy’s had enough man hours. When you’re collecting your Snowy winnings I’ll be knocking on the door of Mr Bumble’s house to see if there’s any porridge left.

• 
  

  #369

  The Stayer
  February 28th, 2010 13:16

  Kilcrea Castle is to miss both Cheltenham and Aintree following a disappointing run in the Racing Post Chase at Kempton.

  Trainer Emma Lavelle felt the ex-Irish eight-year-old could not act in the testing conditions as he trailed in eighth of the nine finishers behind Razor Royale.

  As a result, Lavelle has scratched Kilcrea Castle from the William Trophy at Cheltenham and the John Smith’s Grand National.

  He could though return for a late spring campaign with the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown a possible objective.

  “He’s absolutely fine after yesterday but he struggles going that pace the whole way on very soft ground,” said the Andover handler.

  “Jack Doyle said he thought he could hear his wind affecting him as well so he could never get into a rhythm accordingly.

  “On the back of that, having talked to the owners we are not going to the National this year and will hopefully go there next year. We will have a look at some of the other big prizes around before the end of the season.

  “We’ve also taken him out of the William Hill at Cheltenham as it will come up a bit quick for him.

  “I know he’s got form on soft ground in Ireland but their style of racing over there is different to ours. They don’t start racing until very later on in the race.

  “It wasn’t a nice experience for him so we’ll try to find a nice race for him before the end of the season and look to the National next year as a main target.

  “There’s nothing set in stone yet but I’ll sit down and discuss it with the owners. One thing that might get thrown into the ring could be the old Whitbread at Sandown.”

• 
  

  #370

  kj
  February 28th, 2010 13:26

  Indeed Crisp, comes down to Snowy landings and well dare I mention the weather might have a part to play there. Got my must have 66-1 ticket 2010 tho!
  I must tell you guys I have a kinda shrine in my kitchen, a newspaper picture, of my last win (last of 8 not 7, papillon to COD, last shrine I had was bindaree, haven’t done one every yr, not religous nutter about it ) anyway its CODs win, I keep looking at it now. Comply looks like he’s leisurely strolling in the park, Snowy is looking awkward landing at a weird angle and KJC looks majestic, jumping the last like a stag! Its haunting me!

• 
  

  #371

  Neil S
  February 28th, 2010 14:23

  Bri I think you’ll find most recent winners have at least 11 of these stats, going for them. I must admit I am not keen on the hurdling factor but reconize that trainers have started this mode of thought, also running a horse at the wrong distance.

  Let me walk you (and anyone else) though my reasons.

  1 OR 137+. This is likely to encompass the entire field on the day, however bad horses rarely win races.

  2 Weight 11-02-. Weight stops horses

  3&4 Stamina 3 miles seems to be agreed by everyone to be the minimum a horses has to get these days. I would stick to this even if Kings John Castle had won two years ago, because it seems logical and also KJC could be just a fluke in the results (these things happen). 3 miles 3 furlongs or top three in (English, Midlands, Welsh & Scottish) nationals shows extra stamina.
  I just won’t except a good 2 1/2 miler can win the national.

  5&6 Large field pattern. Your selection is going to line up against 39 competitors (max). He needs to show he can handle large fields. This test is shown by finishing in top 3 of a field of 13 or more.
  Finishing in a field of 18 or more (this stat replaces fallen at a venue where 8.5% of fallers have fell in the past decade).

  7 Must have 3 season chasing experiences. Not a fan of ten plus chases has this might occur the race just before national. He might put in the numbers, doesn’t mean he’s got the knowledge. Ten chases before start of season might be better.

  8 Hurdling in current season, just a public run on the gallops. You know they no chance against their speedier counterpart, but it lets them run a race and be fitter for it, also protects their chase mark.

  9 Breeding non french. okay I not entirely certain on this rule, but the french breed don’t really seems to stay. I know Mon Mome was a french bred. The one before him was a century ago. 1% chance of another french ( I can live with those odds). Mon Mome did have the other 11 stats working for him though last year.

  10 Maximum of 1 win in the last 6 runs, this is to do with you can only peek once. A horses campaign is centre on a cetain target ie Cheltenham or Aintree in national hunt racing. This is also the conclusion when I looked into past winners and what have they done since their wins.

  11 RPR 145+ poor horses seldom win races.

  12 No Headgear, in a field of 40 and 30 fences a horse needs its full attention. Occassional one will win with headgear Earth Summit springs to mind. He like Mon Mome had the other 11 for him.

  Maybe on the rare occassion you might drop two stats, but usually only one.

• 
  

  #372

  kj
  February 28th, 2010 15:06

  Thanks for clearing up the if they all fall, get too tired R, blunder in the mud and none finish scenario Neil, I was kinda hoping jockeys will have had their weetabix!!!

  I know the bog scenario keeps being beaten down firmly with power tools on here, but theres nothing wrong with being prepared!

  I am going to be busy some of that final week and would really like to discuss it sooner PLEASE! without PANIC!
  I still feel with others it could be an impossible task this year (esp. for traditional players ‘backing’ 6 or less) just keep feeling something big is going to break or bend! so its hard to focus for me, but still loving the stamina of group efforts and hanging on in by a thread!

  Please not the FR /headgear thing again! ‘FR’s like a bit of soft! and I wouldn’t want to see Comply any other way! If the last couple of years winners have taught us anything, surely its that it comes down eventually to a case by case basis.

  I’ve backed Treacle in AS last chance saloon race coming up at 3.15.

• 
  

  #373

  Speedyseagull
  February 28th, 2010 15:12

  I really don’t think the French stat should be included. I didn’t agree with it last year before Mon Mome won, and I certainly couldn’t have it now. L’Aventure is a prime example of a french horse which stays longer than the mother in law

• 
  

  #374

  Speedyseagull
  February 28th, 2010 15:26

  Arbor Supreme 2nd. Didn’t watch the race though

• 
  

  #375

  kj
  February 28th, 2010 15:26

  AS was a different horse today! can I get a rewind on his stat meeting credentials

• 
  

  #376

  kj
  February 28th, 2010 15:27

  travelled well, jumped well, finished well contrast from last race amazing

• 
  

  #377

  Pablo
  February 28th, 2010 15:49

  Very encouraging run from AS today – should please Systemsman

  Snowy Morning next…

• 
  

  #378

  The Stayer
  February 28th, 2010 15:54

  Arbor Supreme ran a very encouraging National trial on ground softer than ideal and over a distance much shorter than ideal.

• 
  

  #379

  kj
  February 28th, 2010 15:54

  whats AS fail on Pablo, can’t see anthing now, was his left handeed RPR 141+ year before?

• 
  

  #380

  john
  February 28th, 2010 16:32

  well a mixed view on Snowy, stamina to win national definaetly jumping a little scary though!

• 
  

  #381

  kj
  February 28th, 2010 16:35

  Snowy ran like snowy does. Blundered one mid race, stayed on well behind 2 good horses.
  My worry about AS is that he hasn’t beaten anything, and seems a bit in and out.

• 
  

  #382

  Showlad
  February 28th, 2010 16:38

  Well done Arbor Supreme – at last one of our big tips coming good!!
  Great weight in GN; prefers better ground (which he will get at GN); stays and likes big fields – his price is plummeting across the board!!

• 
  

  #383

  The Stayer
  February 28th, 2010 16:45

  Yes, I took some of the 33s on Bet365 straight after the race but most of the 33s have gone now. Both Arbor and Snowy have been shortened after their runs today and you can see why. I’m sure Willie Mullins will be very pleased with both of them.

• 
  

  #384

  whitearab
  February 28th, 2010 17:23

  Arbor did once beat Black Apalachi by 5 lengths and so he has beaten some decent horses. But he was getting 16lbs.

• 
  

  #385

  The Stayer
  February 28th, 2010 17:32

  whitearab,

  That was the race that put Arbor Supreme on my long-term Grand National radar. He was only a 6yo novice then and beat a very decent field. You mentioned Black Apalachi but in the field were other horses including Notre Pere, Niche Market, Point Barrow, Run For Paddy and Keenans Future. This horse really wants a trip on decent ground and outside of his Irish National run has not really had those conditions since that day.

• 
  

  #386

  Showlad
  February 28th, 2010 17:33

  Well he’ll still be getting 12lbs from Black Apalachi and on ground much preferred by Arbor

• 
  

  #387

  Speedyseagull
  February 28th, 2010 17:42

  Will he run AS? That is the main question at the moment. Have already lost money on Royal County Star and Kilcrea Castle (2 of my top 6) so may hold off putting money on AS at the moment!

• 
  

  #388

  whitearab
  February 28th, 2010 17:45

  Hope he runs well for those that back him (Arbor). He was not on my short list before today and is still not on it!

• 
  

  #389

  Pablo
  February 28th, 2010 17:50

  Short of winning AS & SM performed well today I thought

  But plenty more preps to be run…

• 
  

  #390

  kj
  February 28th, 2010 17:55

  yes and yes, but some people don’t rate BA at all and they often seem to be the ones that rate Arbor more highly?! quality arguably in that race PU or F and like you said whitearab, AS featherweight 9-10.
  I am still stuck on the fence, AS been one on my radar for a yr since that race too, like him, meets stats, like his weight!!!
  I want someone to explain why there is such a contrast of form here, albeit in the right direction, blatently bad then astonishingly good, suppose could be a certain soft than heavy soft, although usual ground at aintree, not guarenteed!
  ‘and for that reason I’m out’ .. for now others could definately cope with softer better.

• 
  

  #391

  Giant
  February 28th, 2010 17:59

  Jockey Ruby Walsh was happy with Snowy Morning’s run ahead of the John Smith’s Grand National.

  He said: “He looks great in his coat and it was a fair Grand National trial wasn’t it?”

  Trainer Colin McBratney was also delighted with the run of Galway Plate winner Ballyholland, who showed up well for a long way and was not beaten too far in seventh over a trip short of his optimum.

  He said: “You’d have to say it was a great run, a perfect sharpener for the Grand National at Aintree.

  “I thought he was in with a real chance at the second-last – they just quickened away, but I am absolutely delighted.”

• 
  

  #392

  Neil S
  February 28th, 2010 18:07

  I know this is probably on no ones list, but Kilcrea Castle is out of the season after yesterday disappointed run. Just read this on Sporting life website.

• 
  

  #393

  puzzled
  February 28th, 2010 18:33

  The stayer said
  That was the race that put Arbor Supreme on my long-term Grand National radar. He was only a 6yo novice then and beat a very decent field. You mentioned Black Apalachi but in the field were other horses including Notre Pere, Niche Market, Point Barrow, Run For Paddy and Keenans Future.

  I think the key for this race for me is that almost all of the names that you mentioned have progressed over the past 2 years where by “arguably” Arbour Supreme has not.

  If we had to chose between AS and SM who would we chose on race day?

• 
  

  #394

  puzzled
  February 28th, 2010 18:36

  Does anyone know correct figures for Arbor Supreme? Racing post says

  OR 140 TS 145 and RPR 148 but when you go into the racecard on the RP web site it lists OR 142 TS 165 and RPR168

• 
  

  #395

  Systemsman
  February 28th, 2010 18:51

  AS and SM had perfect prep races today and AS better than I expected giving huge weight all round. Hope a few more now join the Arbor fan club!

  Cant see what more either of these two can do to prove themselves other than win the GN! (and SM does not neeed another run). Would have prefered 3 miler for AS today (but got that 1/2/3 in the season “proper”)but WM rightly wanted to get speed training into both AS and SM. AS so close to the 30/30 stat he realy must be given the benefit of the doubt as I have argued all along, no one can say he does not stay and has shown today he can run with a faster pace.

  Dont care what WM says today I think he has primed these two all season to both run in the GN and a wonderful prep job done this year. All we need is for GTL to run as well and I will be very happy. Pleased I backed more on SM at 33/1(high street) on Saturday in case of a good run. Will back these two all the way down till at least 15/1 (as I will on GTL) but only when I am more sure of a run from AS and GTL but we can be sure on SM so get stuck in.

  Anywhere we can see the recorded races free(Irish TV perhaps) I was out this afternoon and could not watch?

• 
  

  #396

  churchtown boy
  February 28th, 2010 18:59

  Attheraces website shows all Irish races free

• 
  

  #397

  Showlad
  February 28th, 2010 19:14

  Is it a given that Ruby is on Tricky or Big Fella or do we think he could be tempted by Snowy?
  Today’s quote: Ruby Walsh was happy with Snowy Morning’s run ahead of the John Smith’s Grand National. He said: “He looks great in his coat and it was a fair Grand National trial, wasn’t it?”

• 
  

  #398

  The Stayer
  February 28th, 2010 19:16

  Puzzled said,
  “If we had to chose between AS and SM who would we chose on race day?”

  It would be Arbor Supreme for me. Snowy Morning is the clearly the classier animal and I would prefer him over most trips, but AS is a thorough stayer and the National test should bring out the best in him. Snowy had has a couple of goes at the National and not got the job done. I’m not sure he’s the stoutest of stayers and as we say today he can still clout one. AS looks like he’s crying out for the trip, normally jumps well and even oif the weights go up will still be under 11st. I think Willie Mullins has plotted a great course to the race with both of them.

• 
  

  #399

  Maureen
  February 28th, 2010 19:17

  ATR just freezes on me all the time, but, from what I managed to see Arbor Supreme jumped better than Snowy, who made another of his terrible blunders [although perhaps the speed of the 2 mile race didn't help]. Perhaps Mr Mullins is aiming for an English and Irish National double this year.

• 
  

  #400

  Pablo
  February 28th, 2010 19:26

  “puzzled says:
  February 28, 2010 at 6:36 PM
  Does anyone know correct figures for Arbor Supreme? Racing post says

  OR 140 TS 145 and RPR 148 but when you go into the racecard on the RP web site it lists OR 142 TS 165 and RPR168″

  Racecards sometimes list adjusted RPRs – adjusted to the conditions of the race. This is all well and good but can be misleading as it might only go back one year for the RPR to adjust. Always best to check it out by looking at individual horse page.

• 
  

  #401

  puzzled
  February 28th, 2010 19:30

  Thanks for that pablo…….i have looked at so many RPR’s and TS’s this w/end, i am getting all my numbers in a muddle as well as reading posts with horses initials like AS and GTL and SM…..some times you gotta be a code cracker to keep up with all posts…lol

• 
  

  #402

  Silver Birch
  February 28th, 2010 19:39

  I think arbor supreme put himself firmly
  in the picture today. Any horse with 10-8
  on his back ans stays 3m 4f deserves respect.
  I think this one could be a major
  mover in the weeks ahead. Def went
  t bette for the more decent ground
  .

• 
  

  #403

  kj
  February 28th, 2010 19:49

  but why can the TS change? and there is quite a difference between 145 and 165!
  Agreed puzzled, when we were all interested in Siegemaster it was totally confusing.

  Thought Systemsmans response to todays AS run was a bit subdued, but hasn’t seen it, if you had you would be raving! it was impressive -lol

• 
  

  #404

  Pablo
  February 28th, 2010 20:05

  KJ – it’s supposed to be used to see which horses are best in at the weights according to RPR or Topspeed – think that the idea is that the one with the highest RPR or Topspeed adjusted for their relative weight carried in the race is the one to be on

  I just don’t trust adjusted RPRs 100% so don’t use them

  I’m sure that they are sponsored by bookies – supposed to be a punter-friendly shortcut and do work from time to time but potentially computer-generated nonsense full of misinformation

• 
  

  #405

  The Subways
  February 28th, 2010 20:07

  puzzled:- you say Arbor hasn’t progressed since the race he beat Black Apalachi?

  I think a lot of people are not taking notice of Arbor’s run, just 3 runs ago.

  Over 3 miles 1 furlong he was a running on close 3rd to Vic Venturi, only getting 4 lb’s. Considering what VV’s done since, and The Sawyer was 6th that day, this was an outstanding run.

  The 4m4f of the GN will bring out the best in him as well, I cannot wait he has a huge chance.

• 
  

  #406

  Showlad
  February 28th, 2010 20:21

  Yes KJ I too was awaiting on a Systemsman Firecracker wake up call!!
  Just watched the race and he was like a Merc in a sea of mini’s – luxuriated being held up – then mid field – then 2 out into top 5 or 6 – then after last fence it was an effortless ride up the gears – SO impressive – I do hope Willie knows his potential.

• 
  

  #407

  Showlad
  February 28th, 2010 20:33

  Anyone know of Cane Brake’s plans or straight to GN?

• 
  

  #408

  Pablo
  February 28th, 2010 20:43

  The horse that beat AS, Stewarts House, may go to Irish National (which this year is before the GN) or for the Topham at Aintree

  His sire Overbury is the same as Simon (well fancied for GN). Overbury has Busted in his pedigree.

  On the dam side Stewarts House has Celtic Cone (Earth Summit’s sire).

• 
  

  #409

  Neil S
  February 28th, 2010 20:49

  Sounds like AS (Arbor Supreme is the flavor of the moment, good job I took the 40′s when I checked him out earlier, thanks to this site.

  Comply Or Die, Snowy Morning & Cane brake to back yet. Trabolgan and Mr Pointment I don’t think will make the cut. If Mr Pointment does then a small each way bet in a newly built Paddy Power will be Just the ticket where I get the extra place.

• 
  

  #410

  Showlad
  February 28th, 2010 20:59

  Hi Neil at 65th in list MrP should defo make cut so I would get your bet in now…

• 
  

  #411

  Neil S
  February 28th, 2010 21:34

  Hi showlad, the Paddy Power, bookies is not open yet in my town.

  Do have a ladbrokes, (where he was quoted at 150/1 recently, but that’s for 4 placings)

  Also have access to a Betfred, William Hills, Coral & Tote.

• 
  

  #412

  Neil S
  February 28th, 2010 21:41

  The is no date when it will be finished but if I am a betting man (if not then what I am doing on here ) I put money on for Cheltenham Festival.

  In the guide lines you say that 50 days is the most for a horse not to run before being successful at Aintree, what’s the closest date.

• 
  

  #413

  Systemsman
  February 28th, 2010 21:47

  Just watched the races (at attheraces)- what can i say delighted does not describe it – bloody brillient is better both came on strongly at the end and SM almost second. Great prep races and could not ask for more. But after Rambo last year i am not going to get too excited until I have picked up the winnings the day after the Grand National!!

  Its important this year to have a group of runners and I do hope GTL is in there as he is as good as these two on paper. Feeling confident at this point but still a long way to go. Who will drop out on Tuesday?

  Cant wait for Daniel’s weekend scores.

• 
  

  #414

  Neil S
  February 28th, 2010 21:52

  So a good run from AS then. Still waiting for Rascal’s verdict.

• 
  

  #415

  Systemsman
  February 28th, 2010 22:09

  Just so you know why I think Gone To Lunch must be in the first three in any list (along with SM and AS)if he runs in the GN.

  Now remember GTL is rated OR145 10.11 for the GN

  Read this make and then make up your own mind:

  07.02.2010
  Hennessy Gold Cup (Ireland) G1
  3m Soft
  1. Joncol 11.10
  2. Cooldine 11.10 nk
  4. Notre Pere 11.10 9.5L

  Notre Pere is rated OR158 11.10 for the GN

  28.04.2009
  Bollesports.com Champion Novice Cahse G1 (Ireland) 3m 1f Soft
  1. Rare Bob 11.10
  2. Gone To Lunch 11.10 1.75L
  3. Joncol 11.10 hd
  4. Cooldine 11.10 18L

  I think the point is made dont you? (pity we cant use BOLD on this site)

• 
  

  #416

  Pablo
  February 28th, 2010 22:11

  Have been keen on Cane Brake’s chances for several months now – like his weight etc – hope that he is out within the next 2 to 3 weeks (would like to see him go for the Leinster National at Naas over 3m – the race that Southern Vic came 3rd in last year as his final prep).

  Trainer form down on previous years this season but Smokin Aces a recent winner so hopefully the tide has turned for the stable.

• 
  

  #417

  whitearab
  February 28th, 2010 22:16

  Even though the majority view on here seems to be for AS, I am firmly in the SM camp. Both ran good trials today. For SM, it was amazing really that he finished 3 lengths behind the Paddy Power Gold Cup winner and joint favourite for the Ryanair over 17f. He did clout a fence badly as he always seems to but that made the final result even more remarkable. Anyone who seen it could see how much ground he was making at the end. My main concern remains his jumping. As for AS, for a fair part of the race I thought it was one of those races where the jockey would get pulled in by the stewards under the Non Triers rule. He sat out very wide most of the way and must have run a good bit further than every other runner in the race. So, taking account of that and the weight he was carrying, it was an excellent run. The negatives from my own PERSONAL viewpoint are this was a pretty poor handicap and had no great strength in depth and my main reservation about the horse is that he does not have the battle hardened type profile of at least the last 9 or 10 winners. There is no doubt at all he is talented though and an ideal type for the race – maybe this year is just too soon. That is my take on him – and I say that having been suckered into backing similar types in previous years and it proving expensive! Although there is a big turn around in the weights, almost a year to the day of this year’s National, AS was beaten literally out of sight by Niche in the Irish National and his form is inconsistent. Anyway, that is what puts me off of him.

• 
  

  #418

  crisp 73
  February 28th, 2010 22:29

  I’m sure Rascal will put his own view down but I noticed he was on the ‘last OR win’ trail which I also think is important as part of the overall profile. Arbor Supreme’s last chase win came off OR125, his GN OR will be 17lbs higher. Bobbyjo turned around a 22lb deficit form last OR win. Numbersixvalverde 12lbs, Amberleigh House 14lbs. Then it comes down to how much you value key races with Bobbyjo and Numbersix winning Irish National and Amberleigh House winning a Becher. At least AS should have a decent left handed RPR now, it was below 141 wasn’t it?

• 
  

  #419

  Pablo
  February 28th, 2010 23:04

  I’m not sure that the ‘last OR win trail’ is the correct one.

  I prefer the ‘highest OR win in a handicap trail’ because I feel that the horses should be judged over their whole career – they certainly are over RPR, number of wins, furthest win, strike-rate (if you use it), key race form etc etc

  And generally winners need a career-best performance to win the race.

  Year; Highest handicap OR win; GN OR; difference; horse; comments
  1990; 154; 149; -5; Mr Frisk
  1991; 146; 148; 2; Seagram
  1992; 149; 153; 4; Party Politics
  1994; 152; 153; 1; Miinnehoma
  1995; 161; 155; -6; Royal Athlete
  1996; 151; 152; 1; Rough Quest
  1997; 139; 149; 10; Lord Gyllene; 2nd off 148 in Midlands National
  1998; 152; 147; -5; Earth Summit
  1999; 122; 142; 20; Bobbyjo; 14 lb out of the handicap; won Irish off 122 previous season
  2000; 140; 139; -1; Papillon
  2001; 135; 140; 5; Red Marauder
  2002; ; 136; ; Bindaree; placed in Welsh National off 136
  2003; 130; 139; 9; Monty’s Pass; won Kerry off 130 that season
  2004; 131; 139; 8; Amberleigh House; 2nd in Becher off 133 that season
  2005; 129; 144; 15; Hedgehunter; won Thyestes off 129 season before; fell at last in GN previous year off 141
  2006; 126; 138; 12; Numbersixvalverde; won Irish National off 126 previous season
  2007; 132; 138; 6; Silver Birch; won Welsh off 132 two seasons before
  2008; 139; 139; 0; Comply Or Die; won Eider off 139 that season
  2009; 140; 148; 8; Mon Mome; won Cheltenham Listed Handicap off 140 that season

• 
  

  #420

  Pablo
  February 28th, 2010 23:09

  So the vast majority had been competitive off similar marks or were in good form in the 12 months leading up to the race – and all were ahead of GN OR on best chase RPR by at least 5lb

• 
  

  #421

  Neil S
  February 28th, 2010 23:27

  Looking at dosage of Snowy Morning and I find it comparable to Earth Summit and Hedgehunter.

• 
  

  #422

  puzzled
  February 28th, 2010 23:29

  5. The Subways says:
  February 28, 2010 at 8:07 PM
  puzzled:- you say Arbor hasn’t progressed since the race he beat Black Apalachi?

  I think a lot of people are not taking notice of Arbor’s run, just 3 runs ago.

  Over 3 miles 1 furlong he was a running on close 3rd to Vic Venturi, only getting 4 lb’s. Considering what VV’s done since, and The Sawyer was 6th that day, this was an outstanding run.

  The 4m4f of the GN will bring out the best in him as well, I cannot wait he has a huge chance.

  The point i was making is that in the race in question (Apr 2008) another poster said that he beat the likes of Notre Pere and Niche Market….both of whom have kept better company and have progressed into better horses since they all met in April 2008. Arbor supreme has not shown anything as good as these 2, nor kept company as classy

  Arbor Supreme has never crossed the Irish sea and has always raced against what i call a cluster of good Irish horses that always seem to be bumping into each other and that maybe makes them look a bit better than they might be against different opposition.

  You mention Vic Venturi…another that rarely crosses the Irish sea and i guess falls into the same catagory ok he won a BobbyJo but once Notre Pere was unseated what really did he beat? and he also won the Becher which was an 8 runner field and once again of the 5 that finished what did he really beat?and The saywer, well apart from a recent bit of form i don’t think that i personally would use that horse as a yard stick as to a means of judging if a horse was good enough to win the national.

  All said and done he could romp home and i have egg on my face but for me he just don’t cut the mustard, for me i feel that there are far better, classier horses, well weighted, whom have kept better company and have shown better form.

• 
  

  #423

  Neil S
  February 28th, 2010 23:49

  Direct quote from racing post about Arbor Supreme’s run ealier today.

  “Is another one who’ll appreciate a sound surface and he ran a cracker under top weight to fill the runner-up berth. On this evidence he could be knocking on the door in a valueable handicap over the coming months over this trip or longer.”

  Sounds good to me and whatever beats him, wins in my opinion.

• 
  

  #424

  Daniel Edwards
  March 1st, 2010 08:40

  Other than AS and SM, and those in the RP Chase, were there any other runners at the weekend, before I update the points table?

• 
  

  #425

  The Stayer
  March 1st, 2010 08:45

  Daniel,

  Ballyholland also ran in Snowy’s race and Treacle ran in the AS race though he probably won’t get in.

• 
  

  #426

  Ewok
  March 1st, 2010 08:46

  Daniel, Ballyholland ran too

• 
  

  #427

  Daniel Edwards
  March 1st, 2010 09:07

  No major changes then – Madison Du Berlais creeps into the top 20, as does Arbor Supreme, 20th place, with a score, at the moment, of 5.10

• 
  

  #428

  Pablo
  March 1st, 2010 09:11

  Made In Taipan also ran yesterday but I doubt that he’ll have too many points anyway

• 
  

  #429

  crisp 73
  March 1st, 2010 09:18

  Pablo- when I was earlier championing the RPR>OR you were constantly telling everyone to be wary of it, now I’m looking at another part of a GN winner’s profile you are championing RPR>OR. I was highlighting that Arbor Supreme’s OR142 for the GN is a lot higher than his last winning mark OR125 and listed the three winners post 1990 who did win the GN of a much higher mark than their lat winning one.

• 
  

  #430

  DomiDarko
  March 1st, 2010 09:25

  Snowys and Arbors runs were very promising and they both finished strongly but i think snowys run was better. He looked fit and in fine form. He was up against much better horses and he is a much classier animal than arbor.
  When arbor came up against good horses in the irish grand national he was way down the field and can be a bit hit and miss if he doesn’t feel like it or if the ground is against him. Whereas snowy always seems to run a good race, especially when given a chance at the weights and his record and OR is much better.
  It will be fascinating to see how the go in the national tho and they both have a great chance. I could have took 50′s on arbor before the race but am sticking with my 66′s for snowy as my only bet. I’m keeping the faith.

• 
  

  #431

  Daniel Edwards
  March 1st, 2010 09:35

  I think I will have a little nibble at AS, but only once the dust has settled. Immediately after his run, there was no liquidity in the market (as is always the case) so those wanting to get on(who use Betfair) I would suggest you wait another 24 hours or so and pick up an extra couple of points.

  Was the same with Rambo last year – 14.0 when he crossed the line in the Gold Cup at Haydock, 16.0 an hour or so later, 20.0 24 hours later, and breifly as big as 24.0 48 hours later

• 
  

  #432

  Pablo
  March 1st, 2010 10:05

  “crisp 73 says:
  March 1, 2010 at 9:18 AM
  Pablo- when I was earlier championing the RPR>OR you were constantly telling everyone to be wary of it, now I’m looking at another part of a GN winner’s profile you are championing RPR>OR. I was highlighting that Arbor Supreme’s OR142 for the GN is a lot higher than his last winning mark OR125 and listed the three winners post 1990 who did win the GN of a much higher mark than their lat winning one.”

  Crisp, sorry for confusion.

  I have been using RPR-OR for a long time but am no slave to it because it does have its limitations.

  RPR is very useful because I don’t get to see every race and therefore it is (I hope) a fairly consistent measure of achievement (there are issues such as the use of marker horses around which the race is judged but no system is perfect).

  It is potentially misleading to compare RPRs because of varying ground and pace in the race but also because best RPR can be from 2 or 3 seasons ago (or even longer!) and the horse may be in decline.

  For example, Trabolgan – best ever RPR 168 – but at 12 and after injury he doesn’t look capable on anything near that any longer. Similarly Cane Brake (RPR 161) – no indication that he is capable of that any longer but I am hopeful…

  That’s why I also look for a validation of the best RPR during the season – i.e. the horse has shown either its best RPR this season or close enough to it/signs of encouragement.

  Also lightly-raced horses that are ahead of the handicapper often don’t have RPR-OR>0. Usually this doesn’t impact on the GN because most horses have run in >10 chases so they are exposed to some degree and typically have shown form in big races on the right ground over a long enough trip etc.

  This year Tricky Trickster is a classic example of a horse with a lousy RPR-OR but which might be well ahead of the ratings – the Gold Cup will tell us more.

  Generally I shy away from ruling a horse out for any single stat and prefer to add up points – because any single stat can be potentially misleading.

  As for last winning OR – again my point was that Amberleigh House had won a Grade 3 Handicap in Ireland off 131 and was 2nd in the Becher off 133 (and 3rd in the GN off 136), so he had shown ability of marks in the 130s before so last win off 125 is for me misleading because it over-estimates the task he faced.

  AS has been placed in the Thyestes off 140 (on ground that apparently didn’t suit) but also ran a shocker in the Irish National off 140 (on ground that apparently should have suited) – so there is still an element of doubt about how well-handicapped he might be.

• 
  

  #433

  The Stayer
  March 1st, 2010 10:30

  One thing I would love to know is the likelihood of Arbor Supreme turning up. Both Willie Mullins and J P McManus have been pretty quiet about him but the way he has been campaigned looks like they have had the race in mind for a while and he was entered last year too. I really hope he does line up. At worst he looks to be Willie’s 2nd string behind Snowy – Irish Invader looks to have far too much weight and Willie’s other entries are too young and/or look blatant non-stayers. As for J P, he only has 4 in the race this year if you exclude Glenfinn Captain. He probably sees Don’t Push It as his no.1 (I don’t), Can’t Buy Time didn’t get 4m at Cheltenham and KJC is still on the comeback trail. Hopefully he’ll let AS take his chance.

• 
  

  #434

  Nick Mannion
  March 1st, 2010 11:14

  I know I know its him going off on the same riff again but can’t understand at all why Mr Pointment is still being considered when you look at the new (this year) owners….!!

  The Wilsons just want show ponies to give them a day out at the GC and GN…they dont prepare them for either race by giving prep runs…even over hurdles…so as to preserve the mark so they (Wilsons) get their days out. They have zero chance…as they are not prepared to be competative in the race (GN) just to turn up on the day in the Wilsons colours…..grrr…save your money!!

• 
  

  #435

  Showlad
  March 1st, 2010 11:19

  Regardless of owners, trainers can make a hores great in it’s preps and training. Mr P is undoubtedly a class act and an Aintree specialist and it remans to be seen if he can come back (similar to Cerium last year of whom trainer ran into a 5th place!).
  I do however feel we should stop focusing on the Wilsons, it’s a drain on our energies. Whatever anyone feels of the Wilsons, we’ll all just have to see what Mr P delivers and I think the matter is best concluded there.

• 
  

  #436

  Nick Mannion
  March 1st, 2010 11:21

  I know you can get a freak run like Cerium last year by their ‘method’ but the only horse I can think of that ran a great race in GN with no prep run was Mely Moss (a top hunter chaser…was 2nd in the 99 Foxhunters at Aintree hence qualified for the GN)) who was 2nd to Papillon in 2000…

  When is the first forfeit stage?? Is it today or tomorrow?

• 
  

  #437

  Nick Mannion
  March 1st, 2010 11:25

  Cant agree a horses prep is vital and the trainer …when it comes to owners like the Wilsons and their money…which talks…do as they are told. The vast majority of decent trainers wont touch the Wilsons horses with a barge pole (its been said in the press) because they think the horses welfare is compromised by not preparing them properly for the two ‘hardest’ races in the fixture list.

  Sorry but would rather go with the likes of Nicky H (to name but one who has been quoted on this) who has prob forgotten far far more about training and understanding horses than we will ever know in a million years…apart from when he slips them substances ‘by mistake’ of course….

• 
  

  #438

  Nick Mannion
  March 1st, 2010 11:29

  And if Mr Pointment was still ‘class’ ask yourself why it was sold for a knock down price out of a top top yard…..it isnt rocket science…and ask yourself why the Wilsons bought it….they just look at the mark and say ‘that’ll get in the GC and GN…buy, buy, buy….’

  End of….

• 
  

  #439

  Pablo
  March 1st, 2010 11:35

  Nicky H doesn’t have a particularly inspiring record in the GN though

• 
  

  #440

  Showlad
  March 1st, 2010 11:37

  Well all we’re in the home straight now!!
  Grand National is 5 weeks on Sat, Cheltenham is 2 weeks tomorrow and tomorrow is the next decs stage
  Exciting times!

  Pablo, or anyone with insight into the yards and owners etc – what would you say, given Arbor’s great run y’day, is his cahnce of running? Prior to it he was a ‘possibility’ stated Mullins, now surely that has increased? What will JP now think?

• 
  

  #441

  Pablo
  March 1st, 2010 11:42

  No idea Showlad but at the very least Willie Mullins should say something about AS & SM in his blog on Friday on goracing.ie

  And like you say we have to see how many drop out tomorrow…

• 
  

  #442

  Showlad
  March 1st, 2010 11:49

  Nick Mr Pointment ended 08 with a runner-up in the Becher and then a runner-up to GTL. He hasn’t run since except a dissapointing run in Feb 09.
  Your posts can be great and real fun Nick, but as with the Welsh-win-one-year-win-GN-next, you can be rude when pressing your point. It’s not ‘rocket science’ (thanks for implying one is thick) that the price was lowered for selling as Mr P is out of form, that is a given.
  In closing, a class horse out of form can be turned around by a great trainer regardless who the owner is. It is very unlikley that Mr P can make this comeback, but for those who wish to have a stake at triple odd figures that is their prerogative. I am focusing on more important issues just now rather than the Wilson’s and will not be participating in you making this Welsh saga mark II.

• 
  

  #443

  Showlad
  March 1st, 2010 11:49

  Thanks Pablo will check it out

• 
  

  #444

  mandie
  March 1st, 2010 11:53

  nick have one of the “WILSONS” done a john terry with your mrs?
  you have made your point about mr p .a few times now, which is valid and accepted as is other peoples.
  i have had a very small e/w on him for the reasons highlighted by showwaddywaddy at 150-1. please lets move on.

• 
  

  #445

  Daniel Edwards
  March 1st, 2010 11:59

  Ditto – I am happy to have £2 on Betfair on him at 330/1

  I have lost the cost of a sunday newspaper if he doesnt win…big deal.

  2001 Amberleigh House wins the Becher…
  3 years later in 2004 he wins the National

  In that same year, Silver Birch wins the Becher
  3 years later in 2007, he wins the National.

  In that same year, Mr Pointment wins the Becher.
  3 years later in 2010,….?

  

• 
  

  #446

  Showlad
  March 1st, 2010 12:14

  How are we all feeling at this stage Mandie, Daniel and all?
  I’m in pretty good shape but more than just a bit peeved at the will-they-won’t-they saga lol. Church and RCS (whatever is wrong with him, hope he’s OK) were 2 real bummer withdrawals and I just hope Arbor gets his chance…

• 
  

  #447

  Showlad
  March 1st, 2010 12:16

  On topic: any news re One Cool Cookie? Not good weights but not too disastrous either and trainer said they would wait and see til after his next race, in which he came a creditable 3rd. I then heard nothing – don’t know if anyone else did…

• 
  

  #448

  Daniel Edwards
  March 1st, 2010 12:20

  As in with the state of my book Showlad?

  If so, I havent been able to lay off as much as I would have liked yet, but have big prices on Cane Brake and Mr P that I am hoping to be able to lay off if and when they are in the final decs.

  GTL, Hello Bud and Snowy are my biggest winners, although I have laid a bit of GTL in the past week with all the will he wont he talk (although I think his price has shortened again the last couple of days)

  Will top up with a saver on AS later this week and then keep one in the chamber in case something jumps into contention at Cheltenham.

  Unlike last year, not hugely confident I have the winner to be honest! Although of course my confidence was misplaced last year!

• 
  

  #449

  Daniel Edwards
  March 1st, 2010 12:21

  One Cool Cookie – his price took a walk after his Bobbyjo run and hasnt come back yet.

  I think (hope) the picture will become a little clearer tomorrow.

• 
  

  #450

  mandie
  March 1st, 2010 12:22

  showlad, i agree i just wish i knew who is going to turn up,so i can concentrate my time effort and finances into those.
  really hoping for a mouse u-turn as i feel strongly for woa chances with that weight and also same as systems for gtl,another high up for me.dont rule out big fella with ruby on, think he is a different animal to last year and year older with less weight, has to have a squeak.

• 
  

  #451

  Daniel Edwards
  March 1st, 2010 12:24

  Better to have one ten pound bet on a horse at 20/1 after Cheltenham, than two £5 bets on the same horse plus another at 30/1 now, in the hope of finding some value, only to see one (or both) of them not line up.

  In other words, in my view, its better to wait and see for a little while. Dont get obssessed with getting the absolute best price on the horse.

• 
  

  #452

  The Stayer
  March 1st, 2010 12:25

  Showlad,

  Bets so far, mainly speculative:
  WOA – 40s & 33s
  Iris De Balme – 50s
  Air Force One – 66s
  Arbor Supreme – 40s & 33s
  Over The Creek – 100s

  Biggest bet so far on Arbor Supreme. Written off OTC but that was only a couple of quid. Not a massive loss if AFO or IDB don’t run but more damaging if WOA or AS don’t.

  Won’t be having any more bets in the National until after Cheltenham now. Cheltenham will be my focus for the next few weeks. Have a few AP Lucky15s & Yankees going into the Festival but starting to get properly involved now that bookies are starting to go NRNB. I’ll be there on the Tuesday and can’t wait!!!!

• 
  

  #453

  Daniel Edwards
  March 1st, 2010 12:34

  Im there in the restaraunt on the Friday!…

  At somebody else’s expense!…

  …

  sorry, thats called gloating isn’t it.

  

• 
  

  #454

  Showlad
  March 1st, 2010 12:55

  Mandie, Daneil and Stayer great to hear your State of Play (couldn’t resist pun).
  I’m a bit like Maureen, I like to have a wider list and then lay as I go along – I just find that exciting and most years reaps dividends. There are so many ways to do it – ebt across the baord wisely, lay when it suits and hold on to your high regards or just wait til nearer time.
  For me my main real hopes that have decent wagers are:
  Snowy
  Arbor
  Niche
  Iris
  Hello Dream
  Cane

  Then my could run a big race/hope show up/long odds hopes or may lay later are:
  Eric
  Ballyfitz
  Ellerslie
  Parson’s P
  Beat Boys
  One Cool
  Le Beau
  Mr P

• 
  

  #455

  Showlad
  March 1st, 2010 12:58

  Have a great time at Chelts Daniel and Stayer
  Stayer you should try and put a face to the name with Daniel and then pull a face through the restaurant window as Daniel stuffs his lol…

• 
  

  #456

  Jackie
  March 1st, 2010 13:00

  Nice to see Eric and PP on someone’s lists still : )

• 
  

  #457

  Daniel Edwards
  March 1st, 2010 13:01

  I too like to have a lot in the book and lay along the way – even if it means I end up laying all of it away, as I did last year with a couple.

  Think I have 10 in the book so far this year – luckily so far I havent lost a single AP bet, and I had a couple (stupidly)last May!

  Kiss of death – watch me lose 5 or 6 tomorrow.

• 
  

  #458

  Daniel Edwards
  March 1st, 2010 13:02

  Showlad – He would have to have blooming long legs, as i’ll be up in the gods on top of the grandstand, a long long way from the riff-raff down in the jungle!!

  
  

• 
  

  #459

  Showlad
  March 1st, 2010 13:10

  OK then..spy on you like stalker through binoculars lol

• 
  

  #460

  Showlad
  March 1st, 2010 13:12

  Yes my 2 main AP losers: Church – a total shock for us all and RCS – anothet total shock for us all.
  However these are 2 unlucky total flukes – I just need Eric to run OK this Sat going left handed lol and Parsons P to do well at Chelts and this will be easily redressed..

• 
  

  #461

  The Stayer
  March 1st, 2010 13:15

  It’s all academic as Daniel will be there on Friday and i’m only going on the Tuesday!

  Myself and Mrs. Stayer will be slumming it with the riff-raff in Tatts!

• 
  

  #462

  Daniel Edwards
  March 1st, 2010 13:19

  Truth be told id rather be down there like last year on GC day – cant imagine you get any of the atmosphere up in the restaraunt, but the view should be stunning.

• 
  

  #463

  Pablo
  March 1st, 2010 13:51

  Ryanair chase is the one I’m looking forward to most (Tranquil Sea looks a real star in the making) and then the Coral Cup (Sir Harry Ormesher and one or two from Ireland)

  Just not excited by Kauto vs Denman – both have been brilliant horses but never betting propositions for me @ the Festival – would prefer Imperial Commander to win the Gold Cup – but Kauto will be hard to beat so no a bet race for me – just looking for National clues in the race!

• 
  

  #464

  Neil S
  March 1st, 2010 14:01

  Pablo, I bet Arkle would have bored you too. His price couldn’t inspire anyone (1/10) but he is a legend in the jumping game.

• 
  

  #465

  Brody
  March 1st, 2010 14:06

  I’m ‘riff-raffing’ it in Tatts on Gold Cup day too. Can’t wait it should be ace. Imperial Commander would be a huge winner for me but I’d be happy with just the place money to be honest.

• 
  

  #466

  kj
  March 1st, 2010 14:08

  Agreed think Tranquil Sea future star, and who ran home behind him yesterday?!
  dare I say he (snowy) is a bit like Ballyfitz, alot in the tank I think if you can really clobber a fence everytime you race and finish stating on! they could win if they didn’t do that ha,haa!!!

• 
  

  #467

  Daniel Edwards
  March 1st, 2010 14:10

  Yeah Tranquil Sea looks like a seriously decent price to me.

  I wont be backing KS or Denman either, but that’s not to say im no excited about it.

  It will still be an ‘I was there moment’ I think, despite Denman’s set back.

  I will be trying to find 3rd and 4th in the race, so will be having a couple of ew bets, What A Friend certainly being one of them, if he lines up.

• 
  

  #468

  Daniel Edwards
  March 1st, 2010 14:16

  I thought the consesus was that IC was a doubtful stayer over 27f and with the hill?

• 
  

  #469

  The Stayer
  March 1st, 2010 14:39

  I think IC is a doubtful stayer too.

  Back to the National, the following hopefuls have been entered for the 3m2f Grimthorpe on Saturday:

  Air Force One
  Big Fella Thanks
  Cloudy Lane
  Coe
  Comply Or Die
  Erics Charm
  Gone To Lunch
  Iris De Balme
  Irish Raptor
  Possol

  Should be an informative race. Having already backed AFO and IDB i’ll be looking for big runs.

• 
  

  #470

  Daniel Edwards
  March 1st, 2010 14:42

  Last chance saloon for GTL as well.

  Last thing I want is an encouraging run from Eric’s Charm – would be yet another one to back!

• 
  

  #471

  kj
  March 1st, 2010 14:57

  Thanks for update Stayer, glad to see COD getting another prep, as Pipe stated he may not and wouldn’t be worried about that. 2 preps is the required winning profile tho, so hoorah. So many of our rated horses to watch for, doncaster says heavy at moment, so could be reading between lines, but hope it goes ahead first of all..
  Its warm and sunny today, go outside! its great,.. getting colder again mid week, I heard the words ‘more snow’ again, lets hope all this talk of snow is a good omen! when snowy was 3rd, there was a snow cloud behind him at the starting line

• 
  

  #472

  Daniel Edwards
  March 1st, 2010 15:19

  Air Force One – Would be his 2nd run of the season. Already has a top 3 this season and meets the other fundamental stats.

  Big Fella Thanks – Only 1 chase win, so really needs a win here to even get close to that stat.

  Cloudy Lane – Meets the stats, save for weight and (depending which way you cut it) career falls/Urs

  Coe – Like BFT only 1 chase winner. Number 79 in the entries as well, and I think he’s a non stayer over the Aintree trip to be honest.

  Comply Or Die – would be his 2nd run of the season (as mentioned) but would need a top 3 to meet the top 3 in the same season stat.

  Erics Charm – Has been discussed!

  Gone To Lunch – ditto!

  Iris De Balme – Would be only his 2nd run of the season and only has 2 chase wins too, so could do with a win really.

  Irish Raptor – cant jump! Hasnt been top3 yet this season and hasnt placed in a C1 chase either.

  Possol – Will be his 3rd run of the season (19/20 stat) and has already won this season.

  So, COD & GTL need to place, and IDB and BFT need a win, from a stats point of view anyway.

• 
  

  #473

  Showlad
  March 1st, 2010 15:29

  Crikey! Arbor down right across the board with the bookies – Ladbrokes have him DOWN TO 16s!! Has news of his participation broken? Down to 23/1 on Betfair too!

• 
  

  #474

  Jackie
  March 1st, 2010 15:29

  Great to see all those out, fingers crossed weather stays good!

• 
  

  #475

  Showlad
  March 1st, 2010 15:30

  Sorry that’s PaddyPower (even more relevant) have him down to 16s not Lads.

• 
  

  #476

  mandie
  March 1st, 2010 15:35

  showaddywaddy, i agree that could be more relevant as i always check what the irish bookies are doing regarding there home horses,especially paddy and boyles.i remember no 6 vv prices, the clue was there. lol (who lives in a stable like that)

• 
  

  #477

  Daniel Edwards
  March 1st, 2010 15:35

  Showlad – so much for my theory! He was back up to 26 or so when I last looked. Somebody has obviously had a big piece of the pie.

  I still intend to wait until after the next forfeit stage.

  I want to be on him, but im not sure he is the best piece ofr value at 16s. I do always say ‘pick the winners and let the bookies take care of the prices’ but the price certainly will affect how much I have on.

  He wouldn’t be in my top 3 at the moment, but would be competing with a whole clutch of others for the couple of spaces behind.

• 
  

  #478

  Showlad
  March 1st, 2010 15:38

  Yer Madie, Boyles are into 20s and Paddys into 16s. Wonder of there’s been a word from the Mullins or McManus camp that has whispered through…

• 
  

  #479

  mandie
  March 1st, 2010 15:40

  showlad what you talkin about willis.
  bet fred still 33′s and p.pow 25′s on my comp. anyway.

• 
  

  #480

  mandie
  March 1st, 2010 15:41

  sorry chap your right just put another 20p in meter

• 
  

  #481

  Showlad
  March 1st, 2010 15:44

  Yes tomorrow’s dec will be intriguing.. There’s no pattern – last year there was only a trickle at first stage and then that became a flood later, I think year before there were quite a lot at first stage..
  Wonder if there’ll be any surprises? Hopefully at least trainers will be quoted (inc Mullins) re hopefuls to give us more of an idea.

• 
  

  #482

  Showlad
  March 1st, 2010 15:46

  Nope Paddy is 16 and Betfred 25 on Arbor Mandie…
  Maybe cookies are sitting on your pc showing older odds..

• 
  

  #483

  Daniel Edwards
  March 1st, 2010 15:47

  Showlad – there’s always a surprise!!

  There are quite a few of the fancied one this year who we just dont know about yet.

  I have a strange feeling though that WOA will stay in!! I bet that cheeky ol’ Mr Morris was piling on when he went out to 60+ on Betfair after weights day!!

• 
  

  #484

  Showlad
  March 1st, 2010 15:51

  I think GTL will stay in but I think he’ll be out at next stage.. Same for WOA I think he’ll stay in but won’t run in the end…
  Watch those odds plummet on Eric if he runs well on Sat lol..

• 
  

  #485

  The Stayer
  March 1st, 2010 15:52

  Kj,

  Doncaster is a course that drains really well so a few days without rain would see the ground drying out a bit before the weekend.

  Interesting that the bookies are shortening AS again today. Maybe Big J P has got the chequebook out after yesterday’s run!! SM has been backed as well. I think PP shortening to 16s could be a coincidence though. They’re one of the bookies already going 5 places so might have had a fair few punters getting on at 25s and 20s e/w so I just being cautious.

• 
  

  #486

  mandie
  March 1st, 2010 15:54

  thanks for that showlad re: gtl woa out. 2 off the top of my list.
  whats the no. for samaratans.

• 
  

  #487

  Pablo
  March 1st, 2010 15:59

  “Neil S says:
  March 1, 2010 at 2:01 PM
  Pablo, I bet Arkle would have bored you too. His price couldn’t inspire anyone (1/10) but he is a legend in the jumping game.”

  Too young to have seen Arkle, Spurs double-winning team and England winning the world Cup live – watching old stuff on video you don’t really get the sense of drama and build-up – so I have to stick to stuff I have witnessed live or live on tv

  For all their achievements Kauto & Denman don’t do it for me – much to do with the constant hype (every time I look at the RP site it’s there) especially when Denman ran poorly last time

  For me the sight of Dublin Flyer jumping a fence at Cheltenham or Viking Flagship being brilliantly and confidently ridden to win his Champion Chases will last forever

  But the National is one race I really look forward to each year and the Aintree GN meeting is my favourite meeting

• 
  

  #488

  Showlad
  March 1st, 2010 15:59

  I don’t think WOA would get trip (Strong Gale) and I think GTL is brilliant but looks PAINFULLY out of form and the sand is slipping away in the egg timer…
  Keep the faith Mandie

• 
  

  #489

  The Stayer
  March 1st, 2010 16:13

  Strong Gale is 3 generations back in WOA’s pedigree. Of more influence would be his sire (Presenting) and his dam sire Good Thyne. Good Thyne has sired some useful stayers in Thyneandthyneagain (Eider winner), Samlee (Becher winner and 30F winner) and Chives (Welsh National 2nd) as well as some decent staying hurdlers. His dosage figures would also suggest that the trip should not be beyond him.

• 
  

  #490

  Showlad
  March 1st, 2010 16:16

  Still a factor though Stayer, but more for me I think he has been great over hurdles but winning the GN is an ask too far.
  Now we’ll see him romp home by 20l lol..

• 
  

  #491

  Daniel Edwards
  March 1st, 2010 16:20

  Without doing the dosage figures etc to death (because I dont understand them!) can you explain why the Strong Gale thing is so bad?

  Has he ever had a GN winner?

• 
  

  #492

  Maureen
  March 1st, 2010 16:37

  pablo, do you remember when Ch 4 measured how far from the fence Dublin Flyer was when he took off from way outside the wings? It was unbelieveable..got it on tape somewhere. What a horse.

• 
  

  #493

  Neil S
  March 1st, 2010 16:53

  WOA is also sired by presenting too and many (not me) says he bad for horses staying extreme distances.

  Pablo, I am also too young for Arkle, but recognize he was a legend, my personal interest started with Michael Dickinson and Silver Buck. He also told you straight who was best in his stable because when he got the famous five up in a interview he recommended Bregawn, not like Paul Nicholls Kauto Star and Denman or Tricky Trickster and Big Fella Thanks.

  Showlad, how’s Snowy Morning doing with the bookies, because someone said on here that his run was more impressive than Arbor’s (which when I saw on RPTV )was something because he came from literally nowhere. ARBOR SUPREME CHECK HIS IDENTITY I THINK YOU’RE FIND IT’S PEGASUS.

• 
  

  #494

  Pablo
  March 1st, 2010 16:58

  Maureen – was that the time that he got back up to beat Egypt Mill Prince in the Mackeson? Or maybe it was the time afterwards. Such a bold horse and even bolder jumper – shame he didn’t stay the Gold Cup trip, but won the Topham (John Hughes as it was then) off 12’0.

  He also won a handicap off 12’0 and a rating of 175 aged 11 – to put that into context Denman won his second Hennessy off 11’12 and a rating of 174 aged 9. (Denman’s was over 27f and DF’s over 21f but both amazing achievements).

• 
  

  #495

  Showlad
  March 1st, 2010 17:02

  Daniel, don’t have stats to hand just know Strong Gale was the big no no on here for staying by many.
  Neil, Snowy too is down across the board on all bookies from 16s StanJames 20s with most and best odds at 25s.
  Copy and then paste this link into your address bar:
  http://odds.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/england/aintree/grand-national/grand-national-2010/

• 
  

  #496

  Pablo
  March 1st, 2010 17:35

  I don’t know for sure whether these are 100% accurate or if the list is complete but I have the following on Strong Gale:

  19 attempts with Strong Gale as sire (but no runners from 2006 onwards)
  5 completions (6th, 7th, 14th, 15th, 16th)
  1 pulled up
  13 fell, unseated, brought down etc

  12 attempts with SG as damsire (2003 onwards)
  5 completions (8th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th)
  3 pulled up
  4 fell etc

  1 attempt SG in 3rd geneartion dam side:
  2007 Gallant Approach 12th (interestingly sired by Roselier – very strong staying influence normally but no major GN influence on dam side)

  2010 possibles SG as damsire:
  Joe Lively
  Darkness
  Dooneys Gate
  Razor Royale
  Offshore Account
  Belon Gale

  2010 possible SG 3rd generation on dam side
  War Of Attrition

  Some people seem to think that Presenting is incapable of siring long distance winners – I don’t know whether this is true and haven’t researched it myself – but I am prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt until I see (or do) some research – but he hasn’t been around very long as a sire of NH horses so the sample is not going to be great – we will know more after this year with Niche Market & WOA

  WOA has Good Thyne, Strong Gale & Gala Performance on dam side – two out of three ain’t bad

  But don’t have a clue how dominant Strong Gale is over other influences, if at all – dosage has to assume that they are all equal and each generation going back is half as influential

• 
  

  #497

  Nick Mannion
  March 1st, 2010 17:40

  See there are 11-12 GN entries still in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster on Sat. Could be well worth a watch…

• 
  

  #498

  Systemsman
  March 1st, 2010 18:19

  “The Stayer says:
  March 1, 2010 at 2:39 PM

  I think IC is a doubtful stayer too.

  Back to the National, the following hopefuls have been entered for the 3m2f Grimthorpe on Saturday:

  Air Force One
  Big Fella Thanks
  Cloudy Lane
  Coe
  Comply Or Die
  Erics Charm
  Gone To Lunch
  Iris De Balme
  Irish Raptor
  Possol

  Should be an informative race.”

  Too right The Stayer. GTL do or die race – if he runs a half decent race he will run in the GN (my opinion) and then watch the pirce plumet. AFO also very intersting if he was to run in GN but I think he will by pass it unless he does very well on Saturday.

  Going to be a “must watch” race.

• 
  

  #499

  whitearab
  March 1st, 2010 18:23

  I am at Cheltenham all week if any of the Blogsters fancy a pint at the course. Will be with a crowd of reprobates but anyone going is very welcome to join us!

• 
  

  #500

  Maureen
  March 1st, 2010 18:27

  I’ve been looking at Gone to Lunchs’ races on ATR; if he was anywhere near the horse he was a few months ago I wouldn’t hesitate to back him. But the again, he’d have a lot more weight.

• 
  

  #501

  Maureen
  March 1st, 2010 18:30

  and Daniel…you have to escape from that restaurant for at least one race; if you don’t see the horses up close and smell the hoof oil you’re not there! We spend most of our time by the paddock and pre parade and watch the races on the screen by the paddock. We like to see the horses walking back [and listen to what the jockeys are saying].

• 
  

  #502

  mandie
  March 1st, 2010 18:41

  just decided to go over everything again, and returned to the RP dated weds. 17/2. j.p.mcmanus is stating that in all proberbility dont push it and cant buy time are his 2 strongest chances and adding arbor supreme “has’nt won for a while” and that was total comment.does not really inject confidence does it.

• 
  

  #503

  Showlad
  March 1st, 2010 18:48

  That may well have all changed now Mandie…:) Good find Mandie

• 
  

  #504

  Showlad
  March 1st, 2010 18:52

  Also with Don’t Push it on 11-05 and Can’t Buy Time on 10-13 he then sees his now cracking in form Arbor Supreme on 10-08

• 
  

  #505

  mandie
  March 1st, 2010 19:00

  i know he probually wont make the cut,but if he did and the going was softish as some are saying possible does anybody have strong views on FLINTOFF.second in the mid.grand nat on testing ground if i recall.mon mome was eighth and 55 lengths behind him and flintoff has a 1lb pull at aintree, nothing brill but every pound counts.

• 
  

  #506

  Pablo
  March 1st, 2010 19:07

  Big Fella Thanks in the Grimthorpe for me if it’s soft – won the SkyBet last year doing handstands

• 
  

  #507

  Neil S
  March 1st, 2010 19:23

  Thanks for that Maureen, I guess I wasn’t there then when I went to Grand National meeting 1989. Didn’t see the parade ring, or much of the race until coming home and watching the highlights. Still I did get to see my equine hero before he died (Red Rum).

  We (me and my brother) was in grandstands and didn’t back a single winner that day. The only return I had was an each-way bet on Lincoln 4th and grand national 4th (lastofthebrownies.)
  That year I had my main hopes on The Thinker.

  Most of the party (a work’s party) went into the beer tent and as far as I know stayed there.

• 
  

  #508

  Maureen
  March 1st, 2010 19:48

  Neil, I was there that year, the only time I’ve been to Aintree. I took my daughter on a coach trip. When we got there I asked a guy working in one of the hospitality suites how I could get to see the race and he replied ‘go home and watch it on the telly!’. We hardly saw a thing. We stood by the elbow and I can remember seeing The Thinker go past, and everyone shouting to everyone else ‘who has won?’and none of us knew. Seargent Sprite came down at The Chair and he was led over to where we were standing. I was so surprised at how small and lean the horses were; more like whppets than horses [expected the horses to look more like the police horses; big and muscular]. I was disappointed that Lean Ar Aghaidh wasn’t running, because he was my favourite horse at the time. When the coach went over The Melling Road on the way there, I couldn’t believe I was actually there. Vodkatini refused to run in his race and everyone groaned, and I have a photo of Sabin du Loir. I do remember seeing Red Rum, but thankfully I got to see him again at Uttoxeter. It was only after going racing quite a lot that I learned where to go and what to do, and I still prefer watching The National on the telly, because that way I can savour every moment of it. Cheltenham is different, but I still probably wouldn’t go if I couldn’t record it and watch it when I got home. We’re there on the Tuesday, by the way.

• 
  

  #509

  Nick Mannion
  March 1st, 2010 19:59

  Wasn’t Cant Buy Time ‘out with the washing’ when it fell about 18th last year?? Off a nice mark too…about 144?

  Doesn’t inspire…

• 
  

  #510

  Nick Mannion
  March 1st, 2010 20:01

  Pablo do you not think Iris DB might be a good bet for Grimthorpe and , if shows somethig, for the big one??

• 
  

  #511

  Nick Mannion
  March 1st, 2010 20:07

  Hi Mandie re Flintoff.

  The part owner (not Freddie F) took his bat and ball home and moved all his horses away from V. Williams and they all ran appallingly for new yard so he has moved them back again. One of them ‘Atouchbetweenacara’ ran a stinker in the Racing Post Chase on Sat so Venitia not been unable to undo what the other trainer had done…so it’s tending to put me off Flintoff …and it doesn’t appear to have any entries other than GN!!

• 
  

  #512

  mandie
  March 1st, 2010 20:20

  nick, thanks all noted,but an interesting one dont you think IF fit.

• 
  

  #513

  Pablo
  March 1st, 2010 20:41

  Nick – IDB might be a bet for GN should he run well but I’d want to see him produce something over fences after his injury before backing him – not convinced by the form of his Scottish National…yet

  Just think if BFT lines up on soft ground he will have everything in his favour except Ruby maybe – although Christian Williams won on him at Donny last time

• 
  

  #514

  Neil S
  March 1st, 2010 20:50

  Maureen I also been to Haydock, which is a better course to see things from (like a dog track).

  I had a lovely time at Aintree though, wish I backed a winner or two. Like Beech Road who won the race before National, and who I only spotted on the racecard when it was too late.

  Beech Road was my champion hurdle pick that year, really pleased with that because he had beaten the Ante post second fav a number of times that year and I thought well on that form he’s got to be placed. I was correct first place at a tasty 50/1. That was my biggest price winner until Iris De Balme in scottish national at 100/1 early price.

  Also I had little polveir in the previous year’s national, but missed him on day. However the was a father and son just below us and they had West Tip (must have been each way) because they seemed happy.

• 
  

  #515

  Speedyseagull
  March 1st, 2010 20:55

  Mon Mome is my biggest winner at 100/1! However, don’t think I’ve ever had a winner at over 50/1 in a race where I have only backed one runner. Although I did have e/w on Rebel Rebel at 150/1 in Guineas a few years ago. Good times! Most of them are losers though!

• 
  

  #516

  Neil S
  March 1st, 2010 20:57

  Made up for it with Mr Frisk in next years national, but then went with Durham Edition for the Whitbread (now bet 365) and I stayed at home and saw the race better.

  Will be watching out for you on TV if you’re one of those people behind Big Mac.

  (I hope you’re not people act like idiots when the cameras are on them).

• 
  

  #517

  Neil S
  March 1st, 2010 21:01

  Speedy Scottish National is not one my luckiest races.

  In Grey Abbeys year however I backed two. First one fell at first and the other one was Grey Abbey.

  In Iris De Balme’s year I backed three. First one fell at first, one I don’t know what happened to it and of Iris De Balme who I got
  from Andrew Barr from the Weekender.

• 
  

  #518

  Neil S
  March 1st, 2010 21:07

  I wonder how many of the leading contenders are pulled out tomorrow. Wonder if any surprises.

  We all know that Royal County Star and Kilcrea Castle are out, but who would be joining them.

• 
  

  #519

  Speedyseagull
  March 1st, 2010 21:07

  My worst race for betting is Irish National – awful!!

  Does anyone know if Channel 4 are showing all Cheltenham races live?

• 
  

  #520

  Desert Orchid
  March 1st, 2010 21:08

  Ah, memories! Good old West Tip! It was probably me and my dad going bonkers Neil if the kid was about 8!! My fist National was 1986 and I had my 50p each way then on him and every year after until he retired. Just behind Dessie in my alltime favourite list!

• 
  

  #521

  Speedyseagull
  March 1st, 2010 21:10

  I can see quite a few coming out tomorrow. However, I think WOA will be left in. Annoyingly, as I haven’t backed him yet

• 
  

  #522

  Speedyseagull
  March 1st, 2010 21:16

  Is anyone else worried that Snowy Morning is being overraced? Wouldn’t surprise me if we see him again before Aintree which would mean he has had 9 prep runs

• 
  

  #523

  whitearab
  March 1st, 2010 21:17

  I had a small saver on WOA last week on Betfair at 40 something. Might be worth doing likewise for those who fancy him. I am in the camp that fully expects him to turn up and run, so long as he comes out of Cheltenham ok. Which he should as he will be well behind Big Bucks and co. The owner of WOA is rather fond of himself and so anything that gets a bit of publicity for himself will be an opportunity not to be missed!

• 
  

  #524

  Neil S
  March 1st, 2010 21:22

  Desert Orchid, yes that seemed to be the age of the lad.
  Had dessie in gold cup. A horse who never knew he was beaten and according to an autobiography of his owner always thought first place was his. Always remember one of dessie king George wins going from the best at 3 miles to the best at 2 miles (Panto prince) and beating him.

• 
  

  #525

  Desert Orchid
  March 1st, 2010 21:27

  Haha, maybe it was me then! I was also at Dessie’s Gold Cup and fairly sure that King George too, lucky little bugger I was!

• 
  

  #526

  Neil S
  March 1st, 2010 21:43

  Dessie’s gold cup from yer man was not the best and it was well documented that he was better right handed than left,however he deserved his victory that day and even if I backed against that day the would be no complaints from me.

• 
  

  #527

  Neil S
  March 1st, 2010 21:51

  Just for the record about West Tip, Desert Orchid, he ran in the 1985 national going very well when coming down at Bechers (22nd).

• 
  

  #528

  Showlad
  March 1st, 2010 22:01

  I cannot wait for the Grimthorpe on Sat Hope GN entries stand ground – esp the ones that need the run (GTL, Iris and Eric lh).
  How many max in field – last year only 8 ran?

• 
  

  #529

  Maureen
  March 1st, 2010 22:12

  I’m losing the plot totally now; have been checking out Chelsea Harbour tonight.

• 
  

  #530

  Speedyseagull
  March 1st, 2010 22:28

  Chelsea Harbour would be my idea of one of the 2 horses I would be least inclined to back! Along with Irish Raptor. You need a break Maureen!

• 
  

  #531

  Neil S
  March 1st, 2010 23:12

  You need a KitKat.¶ Sorry just seemed right there for a pun. Chelsea Harbour was one of my punts last year, too much weight then. Now with 10-11 is quite well in.

• 
  

  #532

  Neil S
  March 1st, 2010 23:22

  Chelsea Harbour top speed 153. Racing Post Rating is 163 (I think that’s adjusted) but even unadjusted is over 145.

  Also his dosage checks out too (2-0-8-4-0) not sure how crisp puts it but I put it as DI 0.75 CD 0.00. I think the ratio 6 speed to 8 stamina points.

• 
  

  #533

  Speedyseagull
  March 1st, 2010 23:27

  Chelsea Harbour:

  Awful jumper
  Awful consistency
  Has run poorly in National before
  Won’t stay
  Poor record in big fields
  Needs it to be bottomless

  You guys can save this post and ridicule me if CH ends up winning!

• 
  

  #534

  kj
  March 2nd, 2010 00:13

  just back from a cultural night out (get me ey!) to find some great funny posts and shared memories on here, ahh! i love you guys. Good to see were all back in good spirits… before tmw, err and the weekend dramas, I too have a dirty secret I checked out chelsea harbour yesterday!

• 
  

  #535

  Ewok
  March 2nd, 2010 07:22

  Well I backed Merigo- beat that!!!

  on the bright side I also back woa and his price has shortened considerably overnight which leads me to believe he will be left in after all. If so, I think we all agree that’s the correct decision?

  Notice cane brake has also been backed on betfair to 44.0

• 
  

  #536

  Desert Orchid
  March 2nd, 2010 07:37

  Yes Neil, I think my dad had backed West Tip in 1985 and was on again in 1986. I seem to rememeber he won a few quid and so did I and as it was my first year at the race I stuck with him! It was a lot easier back then, Pick a horse you liked and back every year!!
  And Dessie’s Gold Cup, well, for me still gives me goosebumps to watch it! Being not quite 9 years old at the time, day off school, Dessie winning and the crowd going bonkers! Racing Posts, racecards, hats, binocular cases all up in the air, random people hugging each other andgrown men crying! Magic!

• 
  

  #537

  Daniel Edwards
  March 2nd, 2010 08:38

  Interesting move on Cane Brake – Pablo and I are enjoying our 80.0 now that he is 42.0 and not much liquidity after that

  If the market is right, WOA is staying in today – now 28.0 on Betfair.

  Oh to have had some foresight and got on at 60s!

• 
  

  #538

  Pablo
  March 2nd, 2010 09:12

  DE – I won’t be enjoying my bets on CB until he jumps the first fence on April 10th at least! Has plenty to prove first and has to line up.

  WOA only listed with 3 bookies on oddschecker – either there is some general re-pricing going or maybe he’s being pulled from the race? I suspect the former but you never know.

  So Kilcrea Castle, Royal County Star and Siegemaster look like being withdrawn at this stage – any others nearer the top of the handicap (>139)?

• 
  

  #539

  Daniel Edwards
  March 2nd, 2010 09:16

  What I meant was, if he comes down another 10 points or so, we can lay our stakes back plus a bit more and turn it into a nice win-win bet.

  That’s what ill be doing anyway.

• 
  

  #540

  Daniel Edwards
  March 2nd, 2010 09:19

  I’ve got Louping D’Ainay down as doubtful.

  I guess Made in Taipan will come out, along with Seven Is My Number too.

  Will be interesting to see if AFO stays in.

• 
  

  #541

  national punter
  March 2nd, 2010 09:32

  I wouldn’t count your chickens on WOA as i had him at 60/1 last year and was crowing when he came down to 25/1, then he vanished of the face of the earth as he got pulled!! My early bets on GTL and AS could do the same so fingers crossed

• 
  

  #542

  Pablo
  March 2nd, 2010 10:42

  Be prepared to wait until tomorrow for news…

  I think last year Aintree announced the remaining runners after the first forfeit stage the day after the deadline (around lunchtime I think) – why it took so long with only 15 or so being withdrawn I don’t know – but maybe they’ll be quicker off the mark this year…

• 
  

  #543

  Showlad
  March 2nd, 2010 10:50

  Ewok you’re hilarious re assurance for WOA I totally would not depend on him running until he’s at the start line (which is not to say he won’t run).
  Rode out on a couple of runners and took the burn with their withdrawals which was fine, but have done an amount of laying that I’m happy with today, on areas I felt good to cash in my chips at a profit was the move to make, before the withdrawals are announced.

• 
  

  #544

  Ewok
  March 2nd, 2010 11:19

  Haha, maybe it’s my heart ruling my head showlad

• 
  

  #545

  Neil S
  March 2nd, 2010 12:47

  Showlad, you said Arbor was backed down to almost half what he was. Well I was just speculating maybe after his run over the weekend his owner (J.P. McMannus I don’t think I spelt his name correctly ) had a sizeable wager on him, because he is a gambling man after all.

• 
  

  #546

  Matriarch
  March 2nd, 2010 12:52

  Hi, does anyone have the last 10 winners of the Grimthorpe Chase please??? Can’t access the ‘Past Winners’ section on RP on works comp! Cheers in advance!

• 
  

  #547

  Showlad
  March 2nd, 2010 13:26

  Hi Neil, no I think it’s possible it’s just people getting on board after Saturday and him going back to where he was in the market a couple of month’s ago.
  Now..something scandalous..lol..I feel Arbor may be or not left in at today’s stage, but my intuition tells me he won’t line up in the end, maybe a 2nd crack at Irish. He fared badly there but had also won at Fairyhouse before too.

• 
  

  #548

  miinnehoma
  March 2nd, 2010 13:39

  Pablo, I was reading an old post of yours re- best ever OR-GNOR. The 2 highest ( – wise ) were Earth S. and COD with -10 and -9. What do you think about Snowy – 15 and War – 25. Is this a good or bad thing.

• 
  

  #549

  Pablo
  March 2nd, 2010 15:23

  Miinnehoma – my feelng is that it could be good or bad – good because they are, on paper at least, well-in on best form and bad because it shows that they have fallen in the ratings for running poorly

  Both Earth Summit and COD had been injured and as a result their ORs came down a lot faster than they would otherwise have done meaning that they were well handicapped before they started their GN-winning season – subsequently Earth Summit won the Welsh National en route and COD won the Eider after weights out

  As has been said before neither Snowy nor War are really experienced handicappers like many National winners have been, but if either had won a handicap they would now probably be weighted out the race.

  Over the past couple of years both have been running in Grade 1 and 2 races without winning and so their weights have come down, although they have both won minor chase conditions events.

  War was also out for a couple of years so his chase rating has come down even more dramatically.

  And both were dropped a few lbs after running down the field in this season’s Hennessy.

  At least Snowy has proved himself off a mark in the 140s in the GN, whereas War has looked on the downgrade over fences recently and it remains to be seen whether War will run and whether his hurdles form can be replicated over the GN fences

• 
  

  #550

  miinnehoma
  March 2nd, 2010 16:02

  Thanks for that Pablo, do you know if Snowy improved his 152RPR on Sunday.

• 
  

  #551

  Nick Mannion
  March 2nd, 2010 16:20

  No postings anywhere of the list after todays forfeit stage yet??

• 
  

  #552

  Maureen
  March 2nd, 2010 17:36

  The reason I was looking at Chelsea Harbour was that I watched the race where he beat Arbor Supreme over 3 1/2 miles a couple of years ago, giving him weight. He’s also the right age, rpr etc and he fell in last years race [which is a plus]. I know he can’t jump and won’t stay [deja vu moment here; Darkness] but at 100/1 I think I’ve got to have a tiny ew on him. Even though he can’t jump, he doesn’t seem to fall [except in last years race] and he is usually running in very competitive races. I’ve also got to back GTL having watched his races. He’s so out of form, but ticks too many boxes to miss out.

• 
  

  #553

  Ewok
  March 2nd, 2010 17:39

  How can falling in last years race be a plus? Surely falling is a bad thing?

• 
  

  #554

  Maureen
  March 2nd, 2010 17:51

  Horses that fall have won it the next year, but horses that are placed or finish don’t. However, Chelsea Harbour fell because he couldn’t jump then and he can’t jump now! It’s just that, checking him out on ATR I hadn’t realised what a classy horse he was. Don’t know his breeding at all, either. It’s just the 100/1 thats tempting. And I am getting delusional!

• 
  

  #555

  Showlad
  March 2nd, 2010 17:53

  Hi Nick. I wouldn’t hold your breath – for some reasons it seems it can take a day to relay a few names lol.
  We may not get the info ’til tomorrow

  Re Chelsea Maureen go with your gut..
  But your quote “Even though he can’t jump, he doesn’t seem to fall” had me in bloody stitches Quote of the year I feel!

• 
  

  #556

  Jackie
  March 2nd, 2010 17:56

  Betting suspended on betfair atm.

• 
  

  #557

  Showlad
  March 2nd, 2010 18:00

  Has been all day.

• 
  

  #558

  DomiDarko
  March 2nd, 2010 18:11

  Arbor Supreme withdrawn from the National
  Sorry i couldn’t resist!

• 
  

  #559

  kj
  March 2nd, 2010 18:26

  Yeah agreed Showlad,. weebles wobble but they don’t fall down
  I think maybe 5% of you will know this quote, probably less you’d have to be a child of the 70′s who went home for lunch!
  Suppose this next stage is going to be lunchtime tmw then!..

  Maureen I’ve concluded I have enough dodgy jumpers in my massive ‘folio for consideration’ this yr, without adding another! Snowy being the only one I’ve backed and I prefer the fact that he hasn’t fallen in the GN and has shown form in good company, but I am slightly worried he could be over raced come race day. whats the max there 8 or 9runs?

  About this fallen in the national better than placed or unplaced thing, I feel its a stat to apply individually and could be misleading, but I haven’t looked into it!!! many of the no.s could be relating to tired horses, young horses, unlucky horses or horses new to the fences and feel it is less valid for dodgy jumpers especially if they been round before, just a thought.

• 
  

  #560

  Pablo
  March 2nd, 2010 18:30

  I think this RP write-up encapsulates Chelsea Harbour perfectly…

  “A really stout staying performance in atrocious ground from CHELSEA HARBOUR, giving upwards of 12lb to everything else in the race. His jumping has let him down on a couple of occasions this season, and it almost did again as he jumped the last two fences well out to his left, causing interference to the runner-up at the final obstacle, but there could be no doubt as to his superiority and there wouldn’t be too many worries about him getting the trip at Aintree. If the ground came up on the easy sideand his jumping holds up, he’s worth his place in the line-up. Never worse than second, he took it up early on the final circuit and continued to pour it on as he beat off one challenge after another.”

  Quite a few ‘ifs’ and ground needs to be slow (it wasn’t when COD won that year and he had to shoulder a welter burden last year) but which 100/1 shot (even Mon Mome had one or two) doesn’t have a few question marks????

• 
  

  #561

  Maureen
  March 2nd, 2010 18:53

  Might be interesting if Chelsea has Erics Charm on his inside when they jump the canal turn, then!

• 
  

  #562

  Maureen
  March 2nd, 2010 18:55

  oh, and I reckon the reason he tends not to fall is that he doesn’t get high enough off the ground to do so; I’ve talked myself into it..I’m off to the bookies……

• 
  

  #563

  Jackie
  March 2nd, 2010 18:55

  kj, prep races between 2-8.

• 
  

  #564

  Pablo
  March 2nd, 2010 19:01

  With Mon Mome taking the “brave man’s route” just behind them… potential carnage

• 
  

  #565

  Pablo
  March 2nd, 2010 19:11

  If you take May 1st then Monty’s Pass had 9 runs

  Seagram had 7 from 1st September – that’s the most from 1st September since 1990

  There is a 3 month break between end May and beginning of September so I take 1st September as the beginning of the jumps season (only Monty’s ran over the summer and he had 4 runs from 1st September and no runs between beginning of November and end of February so was relatively fresh come April)

  Snowy has had 5 runs since 1st September

• 
  

  #566

  kj
  March 2nd, 2010 19:15

  God forbid! I remember backing Attitude Adjuster one year, jumped left, well no, veered left continuously infront of fences and other horses, from very early in the race I hoped it took itself out! as I could feel something awful was going to happen, it did, it took out one of the favs, a grey called Dark Ivy, broke its neck. I felt so sick and so awful, I nearly never watched the sport again.
  Being quite young I felt partly responsible and I certainly never forgave the jockey, poor b******, how scary having to ride that round. Think it finished top10 but I couldn’t have cared less. Sorry but there it is my worst national memory. Hope it never happens again.
  I don’t remember Chelsea H being very like that and would probably have to reconsider backing him if a bog!

• 
  

  #567

  kj
  March 2nd, 2010 19:20

  thanks for detail on snowy runs, thats ok then, phew
  thought someone said he was upto 8! anyway, he doesn’t look tired and overworked, he looks superfit!

• 
  

  #568

  kj
  March 2nd, 2010 19:39

  I just tried to check that story, no record of a grey called dark ivy!? well it was a grey anyway, no record of a horse with that name how wierd, I’ll call it Dapple from now on! apparently I made it all up, so don’t have nightmares ;-0

• 
  

  #569

  Maureen
  March 2nd, 2010 19:49

  You’re not wrong. kj; for some reason I don’t remember that race but I’ve heard many people talk about it with sadness. I’ve often wanted to walk away from the sport when things like that happen. At the end of the day, the betting is unimportant compared to the horses coming back safe, isn’t it.

• 
  

  #570

  Speedyseagull
  March 2nd, 2010 19:56

  Yes, I remembered that race as I’d backed Dark Ivy. It was terrible

• 
  

  #571

  churchtown boy
  March 2nd, 2010 19:56

  Dark Ivy was in the 1987 National, which is before the R’Post started recording the race details I think.

• 
  

  #572

  Desert Orchid
  March 2nd, 2010 19:56

  There definitely was a horse called Dark Ivy, think it died in 1987 race sadly. The reason I remember is that it upset me too as a 6 year old lad. I wrote a story about it when I went to school the next week and my teacher was a bit concerned I seem to remember and called my mum in!

• 
  

  #573

  SILVER BIRCH
  March 2nd, 2010 20:08

  Im sure Dark Ivy was trained by Gordon Richards and was an excellent horse . I also backed it that year and if memory serves me right he broke his neck at bechers. It was a sickening horrid fall and serves to remind us of the heavy price some horses pay in this sport. Similarly to you Desert orchid I was left traumatised by that incident for a few days … Lets hope they come back safe this year

• 
  

  #574

  Speedyseagull
  March 2nd, 2010 20:11

  Back to Chelsea Harbour. Yes, it fell last year but it must be remembered that he ran in 2008 National and finished 56l behind Comply or Die.

  Fallen 4 times, UR 3 times. Not one for me but good luck

• 
  

  #575

  Showlad
  March 2nd, 2010 20:21

  Can anyone clarify Domi’s post – makes no sense – Arbor withdrawn and he couldn’t resist..eh??

• 
  

  #576

  Neil S
  March 2nd, 2010 20:23

  Just Google Dark Ivy and it was the 1987 race, remember it but didn’t think it was so far back on time.

  Matriarch this morning you were asking for previous winners of the Grimthorpe Chase, sorry it took me this long to answer you ,but been working and don’t get long enough breaks to type this on my phone.

  2002 Skillwise, age 10, weight 9-11, SP 20/1, Trainer T.D.Easterby , Jockey David O’Meara, RPR 126.

  2003 Tom’s Pride, age 8, weight 10-11, SP 5/1, Trainer J.L.Spearing, Jockey Marcus Foiley,RPR 125.

  2004 Grey Abbey, age 10, weight 11-12, SP 4/1, Trainer J Howard Johnson, Jockey Alan Dempsey ,RPR163

  2005 Run For Paddy, age 9 , weight 10-5, SP 7/2, Trainer M Pitman, Jockey Noel Fehily, RPR 141.

  2008 Cloudy Lane, age 8, weight 11-9, SP 100/30, Trainer D McCain junior, Jockey Jason Maguire, RPR 161

  2009 Out The Black, age 11, weight 10-0, SP 11/2, Trainer P.J.Hobbs, Jockey Tj O’Brien, RPR 140.

• 
  

  #577

  mandie
  March 2nd, 2010 20:27

  anybody know what has happened to WACKY from last year.
  i have my own thoughts,which are he is with us under new name.
  miss the heated debates from last couple of years with him,if not.

• 
  

  #578

  Neil S
  March 2nd, 2010 20:34

  Showlad, I think Dom is being a smart ass. I think he was teasing, probably win now.

  Horses withdrawn ( just my opinion )

  Can’t Buy Time,
  Gone To Lunch,
  kilcera Castle,
  Notre Pete,
  Parsons Legacy,
  Royal County Star,
  Silver Birch,
  War Of Attrition.

  Remember my opinion only.

• 
  

  #579

  kj
  March 2nd, 2010 20:43

  Thanks for posts, big group trauma hey, I was a teenager and don’t like the idea of being any younger and seeing that, lucky this race such an instituation to survive, BBC must have had alot of genuine complaints esp from parents.
  Can’t believe AA was allowed to race again in 1989 after what happened! seem to remember cursing it all the way round, shouting at the telly ‘stay away…’ I felt so sick, we didn’t need a round 2 did we!
  Whacky could be Big Mac

• 
  

  #580

  kj
  March 2nd, 2010 20:45

  sorry ‘Wacky’ fight! fight! fight! fight!!

• 
  

  #581

  kj
  March 2nd, 2010 20:48

  no I don’t think Big Mac would tell someone to listen to Metallica for inspiration!…

• 
  

  #582

  miinnehoma
  March 2nd, 2010 20:50

  A Hcap win for Gone To Lunch(down for 2) on Saturday would stir things up, tick a few more boxes and infact might put him in pole position.

• 
  

  #583

  Systemsman
  March 2nd, 2010 21:12

  “DomiDarko says:
  March 2, 2010 at 6:11 PM

  Arbor Supreme withdrawn from the National
  Sorry i couldn’t resist!”

  This was rather a silly stupid comment at a critcal time for which I think you should apolagise. Nobody knows the runners until tomorrow so what the hell where you playing at? – some of us have serious money on AS so we can do without this sort of bloody silly nonesence!

  There is a time and place for jokes and this is not one of them. He is well backed on Oddschecker tonight.

• 
  

  #584

  Systemsman
  March 2nd, 2010 21:21

  Sorry Neil S
  I’am going to take a big risk (and dont shot me if i’am wrong)and say that in my opinion (and its only my opinion having looked at his price tonight)Gone The Lunch WILL be declared tomorrow as I think its all about ths weekends run. To not do so would be stupid on the trainers part unless he has cleary made up his mind which I dont think is the case – will he run in the GN? – yes i think he will but a resonable run is needed this weekend. If you were the owner/trainer would you not want to run the best weighted class horse in the whole GN field? But he has to be resonably fit to do justice to his clear class/ability.

• 
  

  #585

  Rascal
  March 2nd, 2010 21:23

  Sorry for my delay folks – I promise you I am working hard. My two main tips for this year’s national may both not run so I am holding back for the time being. I will draw a conclusion based on today’s withdrawals by the end of this week and here, I promise. But I have a first draft of my SNOWY MORNING write up and welcome your worry or arguement. P.S. I disregard SNOWY’s recent run, deliberately really because I feel it was irrelevant. I will comment more on Arbor Supreme in due course.

• 
  

  #586

  Rascal
  March 2nd, 2010 21:24

  SNOWY MORNING is attracting some support this year since he is currently set to carry under eleven stone in the Grand National after supporting 11-1 to a much-haled third place two years ago (two pounds lighter this year).

  He got round last year too – a creditable, though distant, ninth. Carrying 11-08 on his back on his back he gallantly stayed upright despite several mistakes in his jumping.

  Nine pounds lighter this year SNOWY MORNING’S chance is undoubtedly the best he’s had and probably the best he will ever have. Trained and raced with the Grand National in mind SNOWY MORNING meets The Rascal’s key trends but, in his eyes, is unlikely to bag gold on April 10th.

  The main concerns lies in the vocabulary used in many of the Racing Post’s form descriptive – ‘blunder’, ‘hit’, ‘mistake’ are all like to appear when SNOWY MORNING runs. It’s not that he falls all the time (three career upheavals) but the mistakes have often bruised his chances in big races and can perhaps explain just four chase wins from 23 attempts, a win rate that isn’t fatal on trends but certainly puts SNOWY MORNING out of sync with recent winners.

  SNOWY MORNING’s sole win in a chase over a distance in excess of three miles came in a Grade 2 Novice Chase three years ago and only one other chase win has followed since (that’s one win from 19 chases, by the way).

  Furthermore, all of SNOWY MORNING’s wins (hurdles, chases and otherwise) have come in Ireland. The Rascal is not suggesting SNOWY MORNING doesn’t travel well but he’s not a winning horse on these shores.

  The Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury was the tolling bell on SNOWY MORNING’s 2010 Grand National hopes for The Rascal . A full 44 lengths behind DENMAN it was, admittedly, another series of mistakes that blighted his progress. Ultimately eighth SNOWY MORNING was seven lengths behind MY WILL (7th) and was also beaten by National entries NICHE MARKET (3rd), GONE TO LUNCH (5th) and KORNATI KID (6th).

  SNOWY MORNING’s Official Rating is down three pounds since Newbury so he goes into the National on seven pounds better terms with NICHE MARKET. Other comparisons are not so favorable – SNOWY MORNING is on the same terms with KORNATI KID, three pounds worse off with GONE TO LUNCH and four pounds worse off with MY WILL. He is also given weight (on that race to the National) to several behind him so the verdict is the handicap rating doesn’t look so lenient.

  The Rascal is looking elsewhere for his National favorite and if the top-weights withdraw he thinks SNOWY’s backers will be too.

• 
  

  #587

  DomiDarko
  March 2nd, 2010 21:31

  Systemsmum says:
  ‘We can do without this sort of bloody silly nonsense!’

  Yes i agree, how terrible of me. It was a sin of colossal magnitude.

• 
  

  #588

  Ewok
  March 2nd, 2010 21:42

  Come on, it was pretty clear Domi was joking, it said so in the next sentence. A crap joke but lets move on.

• 
  

  #589

  Neil S
  March 2nd, 2010 21:55

  Systemsman, lets not lose sight of the fact that when the first list was drawn up it was expected by us all, or so I got the impression that the Scottish version was his target. Now we are hoping,almost convincing ourselves, he runs as anything been said by his trainer to confirm or deny this

• 
  

  #590

  Systemsman
  March 2nd, 2010 21:59

  There are some critical moments along the GN path and this is one of them, the night before the next declarations. On reading DomiDarkos post I did think AS had been withdrawn (an dspent some time looking it all up)and if I can think that others may also (and those new to this site and the GN)have done so – why make a joke about something very important as if it was true that would cleary make many punters unhappy?

  Anyway DomiDarko has said “Yes i agree, how terrible of me” so yes lets move on but lets remember there are people out there who have spent a long time trying to find the winner for everyone to get on for which real facts/info is nedeed.

• 
  

  #591

  Systemsman
  March 2nd, 2010 22:21

  Neil S. RE: GTL – more than hope I think and also confirmed by price profile tonght (as far as declartions tomorrow are concerend)

  Liverpool Daily Post Feb 17th 2010
  “Jeremy Scott (Gone To Lunch 10st11lb): “I’d be happy enough with that and we just want him to bounce back to a bit of Venetia Williams (Mon Mome 11st7lb, Flintoff 10st5lb, Officier De Reserve 10st3lb): “Phil has put us up 2lb off our normal rating, which is pretty much what I expected.

  “In years gone by horses would have had to carry more than that.

  “He’ll run in the Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock this Saturday all being well and we’d be hoping for a good run and then all roads lead to Aintree.

  “The Gold Cup is an option. He ran in the Midlands National last year and that would be an option too.

  “Flintoff would have a chance of running and he’ll probably start off in the Midlands National.

  “Officier De Reserve is going to run this weekend but he probably won’t get a run in the National.”

  I think this weekends run is all about “”I’d be happy enough with that and we just want him to bounce back to a bit”.

• 
  

  #592

  Neil S
  March 2nd, 2010 22:29

  Systemsman, sounds good was unaware of this comment.

• 
  

  #593

  national punter
  March 2nd, 2010 22:36

  Agreed systemsman, you don’t joke with money and this blog is always usefull for good information which is why i follow the blog and put a few quid on AS a few weeks ago.
  Hope DomiDarko gives himself a bit of karma and finds the horses he backed aren’t running and if they run they fall at the first
  !!

• 
  

  #594

  miinnehoma
  March 2nd, 2010 22:42

  DomiDarko go to your room and take Rascal with you. Show him some tapes of Tommo talking in the 3rd. person. Mind you to be fair, to-night wasn’t that bad, I only counted 4 Rascals. As for the opinion, interesting but I think at this stage we are snowed out. Your either for us or a Guinness – drink.

• 
  

  #595

  Speedyseagull
  March 2nd, 2010 22:57

  I’m bored! Let’s have your predictions for number of withdrawals. I’m going for 11

• 
  

  #596

  Jackie
  March 2nd, 2010 23:02

  16

• 
  

  #597

  Pablo
  March 2nd, 2010 23:03

  Rascal

  I agree with most of what you say but don’t agree that the Hennessy was the “tolling bell” on Snowy’s chances at Aintree.

  Before the Hennessy from Willie Mullins blog:
  “Tomorrow, Snowy Morning will take his chance in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury. It’s a big ask to go over for a race like that first time out, but, with Denman in the race, it’s a rare opportunity for him to race off a light weight. He has just 10st 2lb, and I doubt he has ever had such a light weight to carry in his life.

  He’s well and I’m happy with him, and I’m looking at the race as a kind of win-win opportunity. If he wins or runs well, the prize money is good; if he doesn’t, hopefully he will be dropped in the handicap, which might give him a squeak of getting placed in the Grand National in the spring.”

  After the Hennessy
  “Last week, I suggested that, if Snowy Morning didn’t make the frame in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury, it was my hope that the handicapper might consider lightening his load in future. As it turned out, Snowy was beaten a fair old way into eighth place behind Denman, and we got dropped three pounds for our troubles.”

  Remember some of the other runners you mention had already had a pipe opener – GTL & NM both beaten in about 8th place too in poorer races.

  Snowy’s two best performances came on good ground in the Spring and he has proved that he stays the trip and has completed twice carrying >11’0.

  His jockey after his 3rd in 2008 from RP:
  “He ran great, he jumped super and I just wish I had held on to him a bit longer, but he gave me a super ride. When Hedgehunter won I’d schooled him round for Ruby (Walsh) the year before and the same might happen again – David Casey ”

  Sure he was outstayed by COD when conceding weight, who in turn was outstayed by Mon Mome when conceding weight.

  He might find one or two too good but to me he must have as good a chance as most of getting a place and I wouldn’t be shocked if he won off a 2lb higher mark than when 3rd as an 8-y-o.

  No bet for me at the moment but shortlist material.

• 
  

  #598

  Showlad
  March 2nd, 2010 23:26

  Re Domi – yes it was a joke, but I think it was the lack of clarity in the joke ‘sorry couldn’t resist’. What couldn’t resist the joke or have just heard the non-runners and couldn’t resist posting uo news re arbor etc etc. Anyhoo let’s move on, but I juts think jokes about horses fake withdrawal, by whatever yard stick you use are NOT acceptable posts on this blog.
  Systemsman, I will not directly quote or relay my source, but I CAN CONFIRM that GTL will be left in the GN at the current stage and they are waiting to see his next run before deciding, which will probably be at Newbury this Sat.

• 
  

  #599

  Showlad
  March 2nd, 2010 23:29

  OK long term predictions (whether they are withdrawn tomorrow or at a later stage):
  I think WAO won’t run.
  I think Arbor won’t run.
  GTL too close a call but think will all hinge on Saturday.

• 
  

  #600

  Pablo
  March 2nd, 2010 23:34

  GTL has a good record at Newbury – 2 wins and 5th in Hennessy from 3 runs

• 
  

  #601

  Neil S
  March 2nd, 2010 23:39

  Showlad, what’s good for the goose is good for the gander.

  Lets just see officially what’s come out, Arbor is one of my second biggest independent returns. So hope he keeps in. Of course if he doesn’t then still have my other 4 to rely on.

• 
  

  #602

  Neil S
  March 2nd, 2010 23:42

  My biggest is Iris, unless other results go my way.

• 
  

  #603

  Showlad
  March 2nd, 2010 23:44

  Not getting you Neil…
  I’m allowed along with all on here (and has people have done today in you, lol) to guess who they think will run or not.
  Arbor not running in the end is my gut feeling. No problem with stating that. Entirely different from ‘joking’ that he isn’t running.
  So don’t know what your goose/gander ref is to..

• 
  

  #604

  Showlad
  March 2nd, 2010 23:45

  should read, lol, ‘as people have done today including you’

• 
  

  #605

  Neil S
  March 2nd, 2010 23:48

  Apart from the weight issue what do people think of the Dessie Hughes pair Vic Venturi and Black Apalachi, can’t seem to shake the idea that one of these could be winning on 10th April.

• 
  

  #606

  miinnehoma
  March 2nd, 2010 23:50

  10 and 3 donkeys.

• 
  

  #607

  Showlad
  March 2nd, 2010 23:53

  I rate Black Apalachi far higher personally and he, for me, would easily have been the victor if there was an extra furlong or two the other day. However, if Hedge couldn’t repeat his win with (what was it 11-02), then I’m very doubtful for BA on 11-06. I also am a little doubtful on BA’s ability on not heavy ground.
  But yes, he’s a threat and I shall have a saver on him.

• 
  

  #608

  Neil S
  March 3rd, 2010 00:06

  Showlad my prediction on what would come out ,apart from GTL which systemsman has now shared his news with us , are based on clippings on what I’ve read. Notre Pete not been same since fall, Can’t Buy Time may go for Topham, War he wasn’t happy with weight, I know he retracted his statement but I still think he’ll pull it out. Parson legacy is the Scottish. Have I missed anyone out.

  So weight aside you fancy BA.

• 
  

  #609

  Neil S
  March 3rd, 2010 00:15

  I believe I have, RCS we know, Kilcrea Castle on easy list was a rp headlines, Silver Birch I’ve said along would be pulled out at start. Still think the same for GTL but for systemsman sake hope I am wrong.

• 
  

  #610

  The Stayer
  March 3rd, 2010 08:59

  Do Betdaq already know which horses have been withdrawn?

  If you go to Oddschecker they are still pricing the race but with lots of gaps? Are these horses that they KNOW have been pulled or are they just speculating?

• 
  

  #611

  Showlad
  March 3rd, 2010 09:09

  Nah can’t be, surely not Stayer..they’ve left outd defos like Eric, Conna and defo wait and sees like Bally and Le Beau – if they’re right then lots of shocks.
  Yes Neil, let’s hope all our fancies are still in…

• 
  

  #612

  Showlad
  March 3rd, 2010 09:11

  Can’t be..they’re showing 30-40 withdrawals inc other defos like Nozic who was going straight to Aintree..

• 
  

  #613

  Pablo
  March 3rd, 2010 09:17

  I’m pretty sure that Betdaq’s book has been smaller all along than Betfair’s (which has covered all entries).

• 
  

  #614

  Daniel Edwards
  March 3rd, 2010 09:26

  Yeah where is Wacky this year?? Keeping a low profile after his comments about french horses prior to last year’s race?!?!

  

• 
  

  #615

  mandie
  March 3rd, 2010 09:32

  i think he is closer than you think daniel,(new i.d) !!!
  have a scan and read back if you get chance, the clues are there.

• 
  

  #616

  Pablo
  March 3rd, 2010 09:56

  Who is Wacky?

  I’m ruling out:
  Pablo
  Daniel Edwards
  miinnehoma
  crisp73
  systemsman
  Neil S
  maureen
  The Stayer
  Silver Birch
  Showlad
  Ben Aitken
  Speedyseagull
  Desert Orchid
  kj
  Brian
  Brody
  DomiDarko
  admin
  Rascal
  whitearab

• 
  

  #617

  Ewok
  March 3rd, 2010 10:28

  It’s not me either!!

• 
  

  #618

  Daniel Edwards
  March 3rd, 2010 10:33

  Pablo – you and I have come to the same conclusion. It’s hardly subtle, is it?!

• 
  

  #619

  Pablo
  March 3rd, 2010 10:33

  I don’t think Wacky had a thing about the Wilsons – he was more of an Ian Beale man from what I can recall – so I think we can rule out Nick Mannion too

• 
  

  #620

  Sootydoggolf
  March 3rd, 2010 11:20

  or me! I only look and listen…

• 
  

  #621

  mandie
  March 3rd, 2010 11:24

  read about blokes like you in the news of the world,lurking in car parks at night and looking in car windows.

• 
  

  #622

  Daniel Edwards
  March 3rd, 2010 11:24

  So mandie, who definately wont be winning this year, like the frenchies last year?

• 
  

  #623

  mandie
  March 3rd, 2010 11:29

  it aint me, christ daniel i thought you had cracked it in my opion.
  the clue was 1. they build houses
  2. labour prime minister (smoked a pipe)
  3. played left back for england

• 
  

  #624

  Nick Mannion
  March 3rd, 2010 11:33

  It isnt me either but Dream A def WONT be winning this year because of same season WN form…blah blah blah….!!!!

  No list of withdrawn horses yet!!

• 
  

  #625

  Nick Mannion
  March 3rd, 2010 11:38

  And re the Wilsons!! Just checked back all their GN runners over the past few years …as sooon as they have had their GN run (and their ratings dropped accordingly) they go straight to the sales…check out Arteea, Contraband and so on and so on…….apart from Cerium who I guess they hoped the Aintree factor might give it a rating to get it another run this year (think it’s 75th on the list?)…and of course who hasnt been seen in public since….

  What horse loving wonderful people……;)

• 
  

  #626

  andy
  March 3rd, 2010 11:39

  we’re having enough trouble finding gn winner…never mind who wacky is!
  what are the key trends for finding out who wacky is?

• 
  

  #627

  The Stayer
  March 3rd, 2010 11:42

  Why the hold-up on the list of horses that have been scratched? Deadline was yesterday. It’s now 11:40 so they should be out.

• 
  

  #628

  Nick Mannion
  March 3rd, 2010 11:43

  Oh and before I go do some more bloody work…re Aintree GN brownie points…I have sat on Bowgeeno (4th to Specify in 71 and think had another couple of attempts but F and PU) who was in retirement in Cheshire….go on then…beat that!!!

• 
  

  #629

  mandie
  March 3rd, 2010 11:46

  dont look promising for WOA unfortunately.
  re sporting life site, mouse states he is already for chelt, after the w/e away to keep him interested, but does not go onto mention grand national or change of heart.

• 
  

  #630

  crisp 73
  March 3rd, 2010 11:48

  Which Wilsons are we talking about? Harold? Jocky? Jackie? Ray? the snotty Wilson kid from primary school who kept spiders in his satchel? Woodrow? Cassandra the grammy winner? Charles the nuclear physicist? Or Mari just what I always wanted Wilson?

• 
  

  #631

  Daniel Edwards
  March 3rd, 2010 11:53

  Andy says:

  March 3, 2010 at 11:39 AM

  “we’re having enough trouble finding gn winner…never mind who wacky is!
  what are the key trends for finding out who wacky is?”

  That made me laugh!

  1 – No wacky has ever backed a FR horse in the National
  2 – All wackys shout at people
  3 – 9/10 Wackys annoy people
  4 – 8/10 wackys go mad once a week and rant about Ian Beale

• 
  

  #632

  kj
  March 3rd, 2010 11:54

  5- they love Metallica!

• 
  

  #633

  Pablo
  March 3rd, 2010 11:55

  Few holes starting to appear on oddschecker

  WOA
  Siegemaster
  Darkness
  Beroni
  Royal County Star
  Parson’s Legacy
  Glenfinn Captain
  Jayo
  Irish Invader
  Bible Lord
  Kilbeggan Blade

• 
  

  #634

  Pablo
  March 3rd, 2010 11:57

  Plus:
  One Cool Cookie
  Old Benny

• 
  

  #635

  Nick Mannion
  March 3rd, 2010 11:58

  lol Crisp…no the robber baron landlord Wilsons who own half of Kent ( no idea where that is…my map says ‘here be dragons’ once you get to south Cheshire ) who think that 2 runs a season in the hardest 2 races in the fixture list…1 which includes a levels attempt to takee on Denman and Kauto….bit like me asking you to appear competative for first 50-100m in a 200m race v U Bolt…is what ownership/horse welfare is all about!! and yes my tongue is in my cheek…which some people seem to miss….!!

• 
  

  #636

  Nick Mannion
  March 3rd, 2010 11:59

  God this Metallica track rocks….!!!

• 
  

  #637

  Pablo
  March 3rd, 2010 11:59

  Meant gaps not holes

• 
  

  #638

  Daniel Edwards
  March 3rd, 2010 12:07

  http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/10/03/03/manual_114143.html

  Here’s the list

• 
  

  #639

  Daniel Edwards
  March 3rd, 2010 12:07

  Just 13 horses came out at the latest scratchings stage for this year’s £925,000 John Smith’s Grand National meaning 98 contenders go forward for what will be the richest Jump race ever run in Britain when taking place at 4.15pm at Aintree on Saturday, April 10.

  There has been no rise in the weights for the famous four and a half mile showpiece as the trio who head the handicap on 11st 10lb, Albertas Run, Madison Du Berlais and Notre Pere, are all among the acceptors.

  Ellerslie George has been in fine form since joining Dorset trainer Nick Mitchell from Howard Johnson’s County Durham yard in the summer, and the 10-year-old is being primed for a tilt at the John Smith’s Grand National on Saturday, April 10.

  Mitchell’s charge has triumphed twice from four starts this term, each time ridden by owner Guy Henderson’s amateur rider son Robert.

  Those victories include a career best effort in the Listed Badger Ales Trophy Handicap Chase at Wincanton in November, when Ellerslie George saw off The Tother One by a length and a half.

  The gelding’s latest start, in the victorchandler.com Handicap Chase at Ascot on January 23, saw him finish eighth of the 13 runners.

  Mitchell revealed: “At the moment we are planning to go to Aintree for the John Smith’s Grand National.

  “He’s fine after his last run when we were forced to go to Ascot with him. The ground was far too soft – he doesn’t like soft ground.

  “He had a bit of a broken preparation with cancellations and a foot problem, which is absolutely fine now, so we took him there to get a run into him. He had a good blow and has come on.

  “If it remains dry, we are hoping to go to Newbury on Saturday. If not, we might have to go straight to Aintree but it all depends on the weather and the ground.”

  Henderson is not qualified to continue the partnership in the National but with Ellerslie George having completed the famous course twice previously, Mitchell has had plenty of interest from jockeys keen to take the ride at Liverpool.

  The trainer continued: “Robert is not qualified to ride him but I have a couple of jockeys up my sleeve – there are a few who are keen to ride him.

  “As I said to them, I’ll get this weekend out of the way and then probably make a decision.

  “When he ran in the Becher Chase the ground was heavy and in last season’s John Smith’s Topham he made a bad mistake at the first, went down on his nose and never got back into it.

  “But he got round both times, he has experience of the fences and you never know.”

  Champion trainer Paul Nicholls has five horses remaining in one of the few big races still to elude him, including the antepost favourite Tricky Trickster.

  Last year’s John Smith’s Grand National third My Will and Taranis, both also possibles for the totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup, Nozic and Big Fella Thanks complete Nicholls’ team.

  Six of the last 11 John Smith’s Grand Nationals have gone to Irish raiders and there are 31 remaining contenders who could add to that impressive record.

  Among the leading Irish-trained contenders are totesport.com Becher Chase winners Vic Venturi and Black Apalachi, who finished first and second in the recent Grade Two Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse, and the Gordon Elliott-trained Backstage, who has not run over fences since August.

  Elliott has also kept the 2007 John Smith’s Grand National hero Silver Birch in the field, although he is not guaranteed to get a run with a maximum of 40 runners allowed to go to post. The 13-year-old is currently number 69 in the list of entries.

  The 2006 totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup hero War Of Attrition, who has a weight of 11st 1lb, remains in the race, while trainer Willie Mullins has seven entries still engaged including Snowy Morning, who finished third in the 2008 John Smith’s Grand National and ninth in last year’s renewal.

  Silver Birch is one of three past John Smith’s Grand National winners still in the 2010 field. Last year’s 100/1 shock scorer Mon Mome along with the 2008 victor Comply Or Die, who finished second in 2009, also go forward.

  Indeed, the first six from last year’s race could meet again.

  As well as Mon Mome, Comply Or Die and My Will, the first three home in 2009, fourth-placed State Of Play, Cerium (fifth) and Big Fella Thanks, who came sixth, are all still in this year’s contest.

  Comply Or Die’s trainer David Pipe has no less than nine entries still remaining including The Package, who is currently favourite for the William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase at Cheltenham while among the other leading contenders is last season’s Irish Grand National hero Niche Market, star of Bob Buckler’s stable, and Welsh National hero Dream Alliance, who boasts a great rags-to-riches story.

  There is a second scratchings stage on March 23 ahead of the five-day confirmation deadline on April 5 and the final declaration stage on April 8.

• 
  

  #640

  Daniel Edwards
  March 3rd, 2010 12:08

  Apologies – posted before I read it.

  That only tells us who remains!

• 
  

  #641

  sootydoggolf
  March 3rd, 2010 12:09

  All charges where dropped mandie!

• 
  

  #642

  kj
  March 3rd, 2010 12:12

  err, so that includes bloody War then?!
  I suppose I’d prefer WOA out now than later, but I don’t know why you would really, best to see how cheltenham went, I think.

• 
  

  #643

  Daniel Edwards
  March 3rd, 2010 12:13

  If Silver Birch has made him up to 698, then 9 have come out ahead of him.

  ASsuming Kilcrea Castle, Siegemaster and RCS have defo come out, that leaves 6 others above Silver Birch.

• 
  

  #644

  Pablo
  March 3rd, 2010 12:13

  My list of guesses wasn’t accurate because WOA is still in

• 
  

  #645

  andy
  March 3rd, 2010 12:14

  on sporting life ! 98 remain

• 
  

  #646

  Systemsman
  March 3rd, 2010 12:17

  More: Sory if its duplicates anything.

  A total of 98 horses remain as possible contenders for the John Smith’s Grand National following the latest forfeit stage.

  Just 13 were withdrawn for what will be the richest jump race ever run in Britain when it takes place at Aintree on April 10.

  There has been no rise in the weights for the famous four and a half mile showpiece as the trio who head the handicap on 11st 10lb, Albertas Run, Madison Du Berlais and Notre Pere, are all among the acceptors.

  Champion trainer Paul Nicholls has five horses remaining in one of the few big races still to elude him, including the antepost favourite Tricky Trickster.

  Last year’s John Smith’s Grand National third My Will and Taranis, both also possibles for the totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup, Nozic and Big Fella Thanks complete Nicholls’ team.

  Six of the last 11 runnings of the race have gone to Irish raiders and there are 31 remaining contenders who could add to that impressive record.

  There is a second scratchings stage on March 23 ahead of the five-day confirmation deadline on April 5 and the final declaration stage on April 8.

  Scratchings:
  Irish Invader, Siegemaster, One Cool Cookie, Beroni, Darkness, Jayo, Royal County Star, Kilcrea Castle, Bible Lord, Parsons Legacy, Glenfinn Captain, Kilbeggan Blade, Old Benny.

  So GTL and As still in there!!

• 
  

  #647

  Nick Mannion
  March 3rd, 2010 12:17

  As Pablo said there are 14 taken out of the betting…inc WOA and OCC…rest maybe not on too many peoples AP lists…

• 
  

  #648

  Pablo
  March 3rd, 2010 12:18

  These are the ones out:

  http://www.skysports.com/story/0,19528,12426_6000345,00.html

  Scratchings:
  Irish Invader, Siegemaster, One Cool Cookie, Beroni, Darkness, Jayo, Royal County Star, Kilcrea Castle, Bible Lord, Parsons Legacy, Glenfinn Captain, Kilbeggan Blade, Old Benny.

  Almost right except Kilcrea Castle instead of WOA – sorry WOA backers didn’t mean to cause alarm!

• 
  

  #649

  Nick Mannion
  March 3rd, 2010 12:19

  WOA has been taken out of several betting lists….maybe they were pre-empting??

• 
  

  #650

  Daniel Edwards
  March 3rd, 2010 12:20

  Good work all

• 
  

  #651

  Neil S
  March 3rd, 2010 12:20

  I got a theory on whose wacky, based on the description. Could he be our deleted annoying brat.

  Pablo I don’t think wacky Green St too who occasionally pops up or Ewok.

• 
  

  #652

  Daniel Edwards
  March 3rd, 2010 12:25

  So Hello Bud (fancied but some people worrying about his participation) becomes number 60.

  I am confident 20 will come out between now and race day. More than this amount came out at the second forfeit stage alone if my memory serves me right.

  I think anybody down to Cerium (no.65) stands a 50-50 chance at worst, and you never know, Silver Birch at 68 might just sneak in (if they choose to run him of course)

• 
  

  #653

  kj
  March 3rd, 2010 12:29

  what the russian ‘crush, crush’ man- nah!
  I think admin should help us, they owe me one, right admin! wink, wink

• 
  

  #654

  Neil S
  March 3rd, 2010 12:30

  Thanks, Pablo we can all stop assuming now on whom coming out now, until 23rd March.

  Cheltenham Festival will be key in next forfeit stage and how they handle it.

• 
  

  #655

  Neil S
  March 3rd, 2010 12:33

  Kj yes, but could be wrong. Does any of the early bloggers still log on.

• 
  

  #656

  Daniel Edwards
  March 3rd, 2010 12:34

  Right, what do we do now, given that we have been waiting for this day for weeks….

  any suggestions??!

• 
  

  #657

  The Stayer
  March 3rd, 2010 12:45

  I’m not planning on doing anything Daniel.

  I’m pleased that WOA has (sensibly) been left in the race and also pleased that IDB has been bumped up 10 places. However, I won’t be parting with any more cash until after Cheltenham.

• 
  

  #658

  kj
  March 3rd, 2010 12:52

  War is going to be a worry right upto the off but we kinda new that, I expect him to withdraw post chelts run, regardless of how that goes, and what a great chance he has, so noone put money on him.
  If its a bog,.. which I have my doubts about obviously, with aintree being week late and summer being mid April!.. do we all think alot more would come out? (above young whinstone) He is in the 10-4 group and I think he deserves to get 1st nod after Silver Birch. I’d assume many just wouldn’t run in soft/heavy or soft/tricky as Alan Partridge once called it!

• 
  

  #659

  Pablo
  March 3rd, 2010 12:52

  AS earned a career-best RPR of 153 for latest run, which was left-handed

  Key race aside he’s got pretty good numbers now

• 
  

  #660

  Neil S
  March 3rd, 2010 12:52

  Stayer also pleased that weights haven’t risen, yet.

• 
  

  #661

  Gammers
  March 3rd, 2010 12:54

  Imagine WOA will make a strong re-appearance in the next set of ‘Top 6′ lists. Assuming no increase in the weights looks a good profile other than the SG influence discussed by others earlier in this thread.

  Doubts have to remain over participation though, if running in the LWH at the Festival.

  PS: I’m also not Wacky!

• 
  

  #662

  Neil S
  March 3rd, 2010 12:57

  If War is entered at festival then I put his chances at slim to nil for Aintree. Said on here before he wants 2 miles 6 furlongs and five weeks rest between runs to be at his best.

  Check out his two gold cups runs.

• 
  

  #663

  Neil S
  March 3rd, 2010 12:58

  That trip is obviously a minimum trip required and not an absolute.

• 
  

  #664

  kj
  March 3rd, 2010 13:02

  AS must have had a lowish left-handed RPR end of last season though!? 141 should have been achieved yr before, does anyone know what it was?

• 
  

  #665

  The Stayer
  March 3rd, 2010 13:05

  “Said on here before he wants 2 miles furlongs and five weeks rest between runs to be at his best.

  Check out his two gold cups runs.”

  Neil S,

  Are you talking about WOA? He has only run in one GC and has recorded a fair few wins after only 3 weeks between runs. His last win was only 23 days after his previous run.

• 
  

  #666

  Showlad
  March 3rd, 2010 13:09

  We sometimes forget that horses are animals and them being happy where they are housed and how they are trained is crucial.
  Bit like one of us hating our boss, our work conditions etc and giving in a crap performance, then under a new boss and conditions you perform the same role much better.
  The ‘new’ Elerslie George is a dark horse defo I feel. His class 1 win was great this season and judging by his trainers comments we can draw a line under his placing over the GN fences on the previous 2 occasions, but also take the positive of him getting round and being familiar with them. PLUS he is a defo for the race and is way up in Daniel’s list.

• 
  

  #667

  andy
  March 3rd, 2010 13:11

  not alot of help apart from ruling out rcs.
  still left with a not so shortlist.
  hello bud(might not get in)
  eric’s charm
  arbor supreme
  iris de balme(might not get in)
  dream alliance(11-3)
  state of play(1-2-3 finish,prep)
  gone to lunch(1-2-3 finish)
  niche market(11-4)
  snowy morning(not won 25f)
  parsons pistol(needs another 24f,not sure if placed class1)
  those 10 plus 5 other possibles.hope next forfeit stage is more helpful!

• 
  

  #668

  Matriarch
  March 3rd, 2010 13:18

  Among the 13 scratchings is the Willie Mullins-trained trio of Irish Invader, Beroni and Jayo, while other horses who will be not lining up are One Cool Cookie, Parsons Legacy and Royal County Star.

  Anyone know the others?????

  http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=507255&raceid=&title=No+shocks+at+National+forfeit+stage&lid=&ref=PA+Racing+Feed&nav=&sub=&day=Wed

• 
  

  #669

  andy
  March 3rd, 2010 13:19

  the plus 5 possibles
  beat the boys
  air force one
  war of attrition
  character building(prep,123 finish)
  my will(no win in last 10)

• 
  

  #670

  Showlad
  March 3rd, 2010 13:21

  Scratchings:
  Irish Invader
  Siegemaster
  One Cool Cookie
  Beroni
  Darkness
  Jayo
  Royal County Star
  Kilcrea Castle
  Bible Lord
  Parsons Legacy
  Glenfinn Captain
  Kilbeggan Blade
  Old Benny.

• 
  

  #671

  Showlad
  March 3rd, 2010 13:26

  Interesting to see our betting methods as the big day approaches.
  I bet fairly across the field with my fancies hoping to lay at a profit and retaining my core fancies.
  Also I wonder how we see the ‘maybes’.
  In this area you can only go by your gut.
  I think Arbor should definitely be entered but my gut says he won’t line up.
  I defo think WAO will not line up.
  I think GTL will or will not depending on how he fares on Sat.
  I don’t think Notre will line up.

• 
  

  #672

  Systemsman
  March 3rd, 2010 13:29

  Can someone remind me when we are next voting?

• 
  

  #673

  Showlad
  March 3rd, 2010 13:30

  Next Top 6 Tipsters vote stage is the moment Chelts is over – so 2 weeks time

• 
  

  #674

  Daniel Edwards
  March 3rd, 2010 13:30

  After what happened last time, I daren’t suggest we do another one just yet

  

• 
  

  #675

  Showlad
  March 3rd, 2010 13:31

  I will be posting up analysis of the last vote, at some point this week (was waiting on the withdrawals).

• 
  

  #676

  Showlad
  March 3rd, 2010 13:32

  However, although I do enjoying running this for the team, it is FOR the team so if we want to open a new stage right now and also still do post Chelts then fine with me.
  If so just anyone get the ball rolling

• 
  

  #677

  kj
  March 3rd, 2010 13:39

  Sensible to pull Irish Invader out, the craziest weighted horse in the race.
  I seriously think the horses name got him quite a few pounds! scared phil! best call future irish horses an Alan Partridge ‘Day Today’ name…. Epileptic Fridge Magnet anyone?
  then the fact that II wore dayglow colours!? and was the easiest horse to spot in last yrs race, didn’t help.
  Ran well, jumped well didn’t stay!…. how in hell you give a tested horse +++lbs??? well this is my best theory, glad to see horse taken care of.

• 
  

  #678

  Pablo
  March 3rd, 2010 13:55

  kj says:
  March 3, 2010 at 1:02 PM
  AS must have had a lowish left-handed RPR end of last season though!? 141 should have been achieved yr before, does anyone know what it was?

  121 I believe but neither Lord Gyllene nor Numbersixvalverde had achieved 141 left-handed one year before

  To be fair to AS it was the first time he had run at Leopardstown (a left-handed flat galloping track like the National course) since he won his bumper on debut

• 
  

  #679

  kj
  March 3rd, 2010 13:58

  warning: DON’T EVER google Dark Ivy, its just as horrific as you remember. Rewatched race, gave me nightmares, even tho I followed it up on utube with Alan P and then some Bill Hicks. Can’t believe that tabloid paper printed a front page of the horse mid sommersault, disgusting. Please don’t let curiousity get the better of you, if it hasn’t already, I’m sorry I bought it up.

• 
  

  #680

  Pablo
  March 3rd, 2010 14:09

  Looking at Irish winners (for these purposes Silver Birch is not classed as Irish because he did most of his running in UK trained by Nicholls inc. key race form) – all had RPR>GN OR at Leopardstown or over National course

  Bobbyjo – Leopardstown chase RPR 141
  Papillon – Leopardstown chase RPR 142
  Monty’s Pass – no Leopardstown chase, Aintree National chase RPR 142 (when 2nd Topham)
  Hedgehunter – no Leopardstown chase, Aintree National chase RPR 148 (when fell in National)
  Numbersixvalverde – Leopardstown chase RPR 142

• 
  

  #681

  Pablo
  March 3rd, 2010 14:09

  No6 should be RPR 146

• 
  

  #682

  crisp 73
  March 3rd, 2010 14:12

  KJ, it was horrendous – personally I think making the GN a much faster race by making fences easier to jump is just as crazy – but I remember at the time there were a lot of murmurings, beforehand, by respected journalists concerned about the participation of Dark Ivy – re; his jumping and, if my memory serves me correctly, the standard of races he’d contested. Of course Attitude Adjuster’s – good horse, finished fifth a year later – jockey was blamed. The most ironic thing about that year was that before the race Maori Venture was judged by many to have no chance due to his erratic jumping.

• 
  

  #683

  crisp 73
  March 3rd, 2010 14:23

  Past 19 GN winners, ’26f runs – wins’, chase and hurdles. First 2 records incomplete.
  Mr Frisk 6 – 2
  Seagram 5 – 2
  Party Politics 6 – 1
  Miinnehoma 4 – 1
  Royal Athlete 7 – 3
  Rough Quest 3 – 0
  Lord Gyllene 4 – 2
  Earth Summit 11 – 2
  Bobbyjo 1 – 1
  Papillon 3 – 0
  Red Marauder 3 – 0
  Bindaree 2 – 0
  Monty’s Pass 0 – 0
  Amberleigh House 6 – 1
  Hedgehunter 5 – 1
  Numbersixvalverde 1 – 1
  Silver Birch 12 – 5
  Comply or Die 7 – 2
  Mon Mome 13 – 3

• 
  

  #684

  Nick Mannion
  March 3rd, 2010 14:24

  Just checked back on the RP updated list and they still have WOA with 6 of their 10 betting ‘partners’ not offering odds 0n it.

  Do we think this is because of M Morris’s earlier statements or do they know something more???

  Every other horse (all 97) still get a quote from all 10 bookies…

• 
  

  #685

  crisp 73
  March 3rd, 2010 14:27

  ’26f or more runs-wins’

• 
  

  #686

  kj
  March 3rd, 2010 14:33

  True Crisp, but AA did veer left continously before and into the jumps, as i remembered, grey had been jumping well, maybe clues there for his jockey to pull back a bit! at bechers had no chance.
  The rest of the race AA gets a bit close to good old West Tip, couldn’t watch if AAs jumping style improved for 1989 race, from reading about it suggests pile up at 6th, which AA blundered, hmm.

  thanks for info Pablo, I think AS running here or in Ireland is totally ground dependant now. Doesn’t like too soft, although the other day was soft,.. maybe he likes the sun too! A young horse who looked good in pretty poor company? maybe they’ll wait til next yr, another reason to hold off those bets, its hard work for traditional backers!

• 
  

  #687

  The Stayer
  March 3rd, 2010 14:33

  Nick,

  First thing this morning only 3 bookies had a price for WOA and now 6 do so some have reinstated the horse.

  I was reading on another forum some comments from someone who had been to one of the Cheltenham Preview Nights. Davy Russell was on the panel and when they were talking about the World Hurdle he said that he was looking forward to riding WOA the race and that the horse MIGHT still run in the National. Clearly if they have left the horse in the race they haven’t discounted it entirely.

• 
  

  #688

  Showlad
  March 3rd, 2010 14:45

  Fact 6 and 7 re Whacky hunt trends:
  6: He’s a lot like chocolate – very bad for you – but you just can’t get enough
  7: Would instigate such a current plan where much to our irritation we are missing him and wonder where the hell he’s gone..

• 
  

  #689

  Nick Mannion
  March 3rd, 2010 14:47

  Crisp re your comments above and the ‘making the race easier’ theory. Last night (sad I know) I watched the dvd of all the 60′s and 70′s races and several things struck me.

  Firstly the race was always a week or 2 earlier than now so ground usually softer (seemed to be case in 70-80% of the 20 races) and grass had less spring growing time to give it a full covering.
  Secondly…and maybe related to the first part….the field def. went a couple of strides slower after the charge to the first. You could say that the vast majority weren’t trained as well as todays horses re ‘knowledge’ and techno improvements but the jocks (even the rubbish amatures) were sensible re pace.
  Thirdly the fences were not easy to ‘take the top out of’ so the horses soon got the message that you had to virtually clear them. We have a contradiction here that for horse safety perhaps they shouldn’t be as stiff but maybe the horses ‘think’ they can plough through them all these days.
  Watching the races back then zero liberties could be taken and nowadays if you watch a 00′s replay lots of jumps (and lets face it jumping is surely what the race is about)would have had them on the floor (hopefully unhurt/injured) back then …and also the sight down the back stretch (Canal Turn onwards) of guys virtually rebuilding fences as so much birch and fir is taken out didnt happen back in the day as apart from top dressing…the fences were well built!!
  The balance is that the field these days is usually of far better quality throughout as is the horsemanship but I pesonally hope for ground that does slow them down and it becomes a jumping test!!

  Best sight was 67 and Johnny Buckingham clearing 2nd Canal and looking back at the carnage at the 23rd (miraculously nothing fatal) and his ‘f**k me there’s only me still going’ expresiion on his face!! By the way Foinavon had run way down the field in that years GC….so maybe the Wilsons do know what they are doing….;)

• 
  

  #690

  Nick Mannion
  March 3rd, 2010 14:50

  Oh and you ran a cracker in 73 and still at the elbow it looks impossible for Rummy to catch you….!!

• 
  

  #691

  Nick Mannion
  March 3rd, 2010 14:51

  TY The Stayer re WOA

• 
  

  #692

  kj
  March 3rd, 2010 14:56

  I watched ’73 aswell last night, my dad still goes on about poor Crisp.. ahh, but nice to hand over the reins to a horse like Rummy tho, bought tears to my eyes watching him win just for me in ’77.

• 
  

  #693

  Pablo
  March 3rd, 2010 15:09

  Now UK trained winners (inc Silver Birch for reasons stated above)

  Seems that form previous left-handed form stands up well from Hennessy at Newbury, Welsh at Chepstow and Cheltenham Festival form (not necessarily from that season)

  Nothing we don’t already know instinctively really but every UK-trained horse (inc Silver Birch) bar Lord Gyllene has had RPR > GN OR from the Hennessy OR the Welsh National OR the Cheltenham Festival OR the National fences (GN or Becher) – i.e. they have already performed when it matters in proper, competitive races

• 
  

  #694

  Nick Mannion
  March 3rd, 2010 15:12

  Agreed KJ but think Crisp and his jumping is one of the most thrilling sights ever seen in the race!! I had forgottten that most of the 1st circuit Grey Sombrero was upsides till the Melling Rd and was still in no mans land btween Crisp and the rest of the field when it buckled on landing at The Chair and was sadly fataly injured…

  The tears come to my eyes the 2 times I backed Rummy (75 & 76)!! Although if horses had expressions we could read as easily as peoples seeing Rummy making a second effort v Rag Trade (76) with his face saying ‘this is my domain mate’ and him running his heart out in defeat…pass the kleenex…!!

• 
  

  #695

  mandie
  March 3rd, 2010 15:15

  lads can i just ask you all to pause for a moment and spare a thought for keith alexander the macclesfield football manager who has passed away at the age of 53.
  hope all our thoughts go to is family and freinds.he was a really good genuine guy in a sport that many do not have his qualities.

• 
  

  #696

  Neil S
  March 3rd, 2010 15:15

  Stayer check war of attrition pattern in top class company and you’ll see that he needs rest between each run,he might follow up a win with another in quick succession but that’s will be it. Obviously some races take less winning than others.

  Apology though thought he ran in 2.

• 
  

  #697

  kj
  March 3rd, 2010 15:58

  err, admin, hope this new format can be altered!
  you’ve made the writing too small and removed the times of postings!!!
  crucial if there are tonnes to wade through and you’ve noted something important, not even a no. next to each post, makes it harder to refer to, sorry.

• 
  

  #698

  Showlad
  March 3rd, 2010 15:58

  Admin: Really not liking the new page display – huge white bands either side, which is a waste of space and the text then suffers as it is about a 1/3 of the previous size. Think we had this last year – can we go back to old system thanks?.

• 
  

  #699

  Showlad
  March 3rd, 2010 15:59

  This new style could stop me viewing a lot – I’m getting a headache trying to scrutinise the tiny print

• 
  

  #700

  Jackie
  March 3rd, 2010 16:06

  Thought it was my pc playing up re pae layout, please put back to normal : )

• 
  

  #701

  Jackie
  March 3rd, 2010 16:07

  page, sorry.

• 
  

  #702

  kj
  March 3rd, 2010 16:10

  Agreed, its not reading friendly. If its left this size, please no! going to have to press ‘control’ ‘+’ everytime to get bigger text, but that looses your place and with ‘no times’ on the dates this will be more work, although I ldo ike the fact that its back on one page!
  Don’t want to be rude, but, your green horse logo, is that new? looks weird, looks like George from Rainbow strapped on its back, very buckeroo!

• 
  

  #703

  Pablo
  March 3rd, 2010 16:10

  Was going to go pretty much all in on Chicago Grey NRNB in the Coral Cup if handicapper did what he did last year and gave horses >=140 their Irish mark (cue Ninetieth Minute @ 20/1) – Chicago is Irish 141 but handicapper has him on 151 now

  Oh well back to drawing board…

• 
  

  #704

  kj
  March 3rd, 2010 16:36

  Are you discussing cheltenham on another thread here? just wanted to know, was thinking of looking into it, not that I find it a lucky meeting for me. The ‘private’ page here has one comment from TC.

  sorry admin not giving you time to respond,. but times are crucial, not just dates! sometimes its the only way you can tell which comment someone is responding to, could be very confusing and end up with everyone having to copy what they are responding to, which would just make things really long.
  p.s admin do you know is wacky about?

• 
  

  #705

  Showlad
  March 3rd, 2010 16:54

  Hi All, have posted up the movements in the withdrawals for the 40 places. Table runs down to the original number 74 Abbeybraney, which was the last number included last year (Zabenz).
  Not that you’ll be able to read it very well, lol, ’til Admin fixes the now terrible page (please).

  1) 03-P136 ALBERTAS RUN (IRE) 9-11-10 Trevor Hemmings Jonjo O’Neill
  2) 101-324 MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 9-11-10 Roger Stanley & Yvonne Reynolds II David Pipe
  3) 12-1F544 NOTRE PERE (FR) 9-11-10 Tilly Conway Jim Dreaper IRE
  4) 12/14P/-1 TARANIS (FR) 9-11-09 Angela Yeoman Paul Nicholls
  5) 4-61r01 OUR VIC (IRE) 12-11-08 David Johnson David Pipe
  6) 001-P34 MON MOME (FR) 10-11-07 Vida Bingham Venetia Williams
  7) P151U-0 BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 11-11-06 Gerard Burke Dessie Hughes IRE
  15-5003 JOE LIVELY (IRE) 11-11-06 Richard Dimond Colin Tizzard
  9) 0-21150 VIC VENTURI (IRE) 10-11-06 James Dunne Dessie Hughes IRE
  10) 1/P002-0 COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 11-11-05 David Johnson David Pipe
  11) 201-423 DON’T PUSH IT (IRE) 10-11-05 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill
  12) 43-3U240 MADE IN TAIPAN (IRE) 8-11-04 Frances Duffin/Sean Corby Tom Mullins IRE
  13) 401-0352 NICHE MARKET (IRE) 9-11-04 Graham Regan Bob Buckler
  14) 22121-21 TRICKY TRICKSTER (IRE) 7-11-04 Chris Giles Paul Nicholls
  15) P15P-14 CASEY JONES (IRE) 9-11-03 Gillian Burke Noel Meade IRE
  16) 31FU-36 CLOUDY LANE 10-11-03 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain Jnr
  17) PUPP/-21 DREAM ALLIANCE 9-11-03 The Alliance Partnership Philip Hobbs
  18) 1P00-60 NOZIC (FR) 9-11-03 Sam Mcvie Paul Nicholls
  19) 3201-11 POSSOL (FR) 7-11-03 Neville Statham Henry Daly
  20) 553-205 MY WILL (FR) 10-11-02 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls
  21) 3606-4F PABLO DU CHARMIL (FR) 9-11-02 Joe Moran David Pipe
  22) P230411 WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 11-11-01 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE
  23) 0112313 BACKSTAGE (FR) 8-11-00 MPR & Capranny Syndicate Gordon Elliott IRE
  24) P6-5111 BALLYHOLLAND (IRE) 9-11-00 Cathal McGovern Colin McBratney IRE
  25) FP-1P1P BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 9-11-00 New Club Ladies Nigel Twiston-Davies
  26) 100-000 PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 10-11-00 John O’Donohue/Tom O’Leary Tom O’Leary IRE
  27) 212//U1-2(1)(1) ROULEZ COOL 7-11-00 Robert Waley-Cohen Robert Waley-Cohen
  28) 314F-01 CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 8-10-13 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill
  29) 1P1-0131 LE BEAU BAI (FR) 7-10-13 Glass Half Full Richard Lee
  30) 11411P SEVEN IS MY NUMBER (IRE) 8-10-13 David Johnson David Pipe
  31) 110322 SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 10-10-13 Quayside Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
  32) 22506-P3 AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 8-10-12 Brian Walsh (Co. Kildare) Charlie Mann
  33) 2U136-2U BIG FELLA THANKS 8-10-12 Maggie Findlay & Paul Barber Paul Nicholls
  34) 113-412 DEUTSCHLAND (USA) 7-10-12 Allan McLuckie Willie Mullins IRE
  35) 4/2D133- LOUPING D’AINAY (FR) 11-10-12 Jean-Paul Senechal Francois Cottin FR
  36) 143301-0 CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 10-10-11 Mrs E Wright John Quinn
  37) F0-5260 CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 10-10-11 Frances Duffin/Sean Corby Tom Mullins IRE
  38) 02U-301 DOONEYS GATE (IRE) 9-10-11 Thomas Gilligan Willie Mullins IRE
  39) P2-205P0 GONE TO LUNCH (IRE) 10-10-11 Gary Lever Jeremy Scott
  40) 4116-6P KORNATI KID 8-10-11 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
  41) 60/144-P STATE OF PLAY 10-10-11 William & Angela Rucker Evan Williams
  42) 00-1210 ELLERSLIE GEORGE (IRE) 10-10-10 Guy Henderson Nick Mitchell
  43) 112130- FOLLOW THE PLAN (IRE) 7-10-10 Cavan Developments Bloodstock Oliver McKiernan IRE
  44) 2P-4P15 BALLYFITZ 10-10-09 Fred Mills & Wayne Mills Nigel Twiston-Davies
  45) 043545 CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 11-10-09 Kings Syndicate Jimmy Mangan IRE
  46) P23-15P EQUUS MAXIMUS (IRE) 10-10-09 Greenstar Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
  47) 02P5-01 ERIC’S CHARM (FR) 12-10-09 Martin St Quinton & Peter Deal Oliver Sherwood
  48) 212/0-00 KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 11-10-09 J P McManus Arthur Moore IRE
  49) 0F2-3054 OLLIE MAGERN 12-10-09 Roger Nicholls Nigel Twiston-Davies
  50) 330-30U ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 8-10-08 J P McManus Willie Mullins IRE
  51) 03-635P CANE BRAKE (IRE) 11-10-08 Mount Temple Racing Sydicate Tom Taaffe IRE
  52) 36244/-66 LENNON (IRE) 10-10-08 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson
  53) 02P-253 MALJIMAR (IRE) 10-10-08 Jane Williams Nick Williams
  54) 0/1P025/- NEW ALCO (FR) 9-10-08 D McGowan & S Murphy Ferdy Murphy
  55) U01-4U5 IRISH RAPTOR (IRE) 11-10-07 Caroline Beresford-Wylie Nigel Twiston-Davies
  56) 6P/6220- MR POINTMENT (IRE) 11-10-07 Judith Wilson Paul Murphy
  57) F-051FP PARSONS PISTOL (IRE) 8-10-07 Robert Bagnall Noel Meade IRE
  58) 000-3301 PIRAYA (FR) 7-10-07 Terry Neill David Pipe
  59) 13-01240 RAZOR ROYALE (IRE) 8-10-07 Colin Cornes Nigel Twiston-Davies
  60) 03-0231 THE PACKAGE 7-10-07 David Johnson David Pipe
  61) 11-035B HELLO BUD (IRE) 12-10-06 Seamus Murphy Nigel Twiston-Davies
  62) P31314/-5 IRIS DE BALME (FR) 10-10-06 Lee Power & Geoff Peck Sean Curran
  63) 1P6-142 PALYPSO DE CREEK (FR) 7-10-06 Alan Halsall Charlie Longsdon
  64) 11P/11-1 TRUST FUND (IRE) 12-10-06 Lord Daresbury Richard Barber
  65) 23/32-31 ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 9-10-05 Andrea & Graham Wylie Howard Johnson

• 
  

  #706

  Showlad
  March 3rd, 2010 16:56

  Smiley should be a number 8. Lol, it’s not a sign from me to bet Joe Lively ha ha – could Mother fate have dealt us a sign lol?

• 
  

  #707

  DomiDarko
  March 3rd, 2010 17:58

  Regarding my little joke. I’m not trying to offend people on here so please take this in good spirits. I’m sure i will get shot down for this nevertheless.

  National punter says:
  March 2nd, 2010

  “Hope DomiDarko gives himself a bit of karma and finds the horses he backed aren’t running and if they run they fall at the first!!”

  Reply: Actually i have only backed Snowy as i felt he was the best value in the race ages ago. I think i was the first to tip him at 66/1. I don’t like to bet on 25 horses, there is no skill in that.
  If i was to receive karma i’m sure it would be all good.

  Systemsman says:
  March 2nd, 2010

  There are some critical moments along the GN path and this is one of them.
  Anyway DomiDarko has said “Yes i agree, how terrible of me” so yes lets move on but lets remember there are people out there who have spent a long time trying to find the winner for everyone to get on for which real facts/info is needed.

  Reply: I was being sarcastic! I think people sometimes get lost in the stress of it all and lose sight that the national is a magical event which should be enjoyed so i was just trying to add some humour while we waited for news on the withdrawals. I don’t like to see people lose their money. People shouldn’t bet if they can’t deal with the pressure and enjoy it. In everything their is a lesson to learn and the pursuit of money is one of them. It can burn you.

  Anyone who has studied systems analysis will know that although the stats side of the race is important its only a small part of the big picture.(ooh, controversial) It should be quantitative and qualitative and shouldn’t be overkilled or it ultimately becomes a one dimensional linear approach and blinds the individual of a wider, more holistic perspective.
  I have my own method of generating multiple partial views which uses some stats but doesn’t follow them like the gospel.
  Common sense, instinct and evaluation of inside knowledge, dosage, conditions and simple equations on networks of form much like the 6 degrees of separation principal coupled with some trends must have a role within a dynamic model. It must not be static and must be reflective and iterative to evolve.

  So in summary the winner will be… a horse. Haha!
  Anyway as you can tell i was very bored. I expect i’ll be persecuted now for having alternative views.
  Peace to all and to all a merry christmas.

• 
  

  #708

  Pablo
  March 3rd, 2010 17:58

  http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/taranis-likely-to-miss-gold-cup-after-setback/687990/top/

  Taranis unlikely to go for Gold Cup & GN according to Paul Nicholls – he will say more in RP column on Saturday after horse has scan on Friday

• 
  

  #709

  Nick Mannion
  March 3rd, 2010 18:09

  Does anyone know if Roulez Cool and/or Trust Fund are entered for Chelt Foxhunters??

• 
  

  #710

  Showlad
  March 3rd, 2010 18:24

  Nick they are both entered

• 
  

  #711

  TC
  March 3rd, 2010 18:27

  pretty much focusing on cheltenham at the moment, but if GTL shows a little form at the weekend and turns up at Aintree then he is likely to be my largest bet, unless IDB wins at the grimthorpe or something can come out of the festival – maybe oodachee. Was impressed with AS though and he does look a perfect mccoy ride. At the moment though my 2 are AS and GTL

• 
  

  #712

  TC
  March 3rd, 2010 18:29

  oh… and i’m not wacky either

• 
  

  #713

  Nick Mannion
  March 3rd, 2010 18:32

  Ty Showlad…on RP it has all Chelt cards bar about 3…1 being the FxHtrs!!

• 
  

  #714

  Showlad
  March 3rd, 2010 18:40

  No worries.
  Trust v interesting tho poss like Garde best suited to cross country. On 10-06 it would be Phil’s job to separate Hello, Iris, Trust and Palypso if positions available fall a place or two short of last years cut.
  Personally I don’t think it will. I think it will go down a little further to 76-78. A lot of high class entries this year and I think in the end many will reconsider unless a specialist like COD or in with a great chance like Niche etc.

• 
  

  #715

  john
  March 3rd, 2010 18:45

  I have asked this before but what does everyone think of seven is my number. Will he run, is he good enough?

• 
  

  #716

  petee
  March 3rd, 2010 18:55

  to many stats can just leave you more confused than ever !! go with the force luke go with the force !! lol

• 
  

  #717

  Speedyseagull
  March 3rd, 2010 19:37

  Not sure if any of you guys look at this site, but tends to be updated fairly reguarly with trainer comments

  http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/racing/article7028862.ece

• 
  

  #718

  Maureen
  March 3rd, 2010 20:37

  Think I’ve got to back Ellerslie George as well; oh dear, my bets are getting out of hand. By the way, what’s happened to the typeface..logged on with someone elses computer earlier today and thought it was because I was with a different server. And who’s wacky?

• 
  

  #719

  Systemsman
  March 3rd, 2010 20:48

  “petee
  March 3rd, 2010

  to many stats can just leave you more confused than ever !! go with the force luke go with the force !!

  No petee, you go to the poor house!! If nothing else back the top six in the GN scores chart on this site the week of the GN race. Also cross reference with Daniel’s and Pablos final list at the same time and you should find the winner.

  Right now you should be thinking about a short list with some of these in them (there are a few others). To be sure wait for the week of the race.

  GTL (we need to know this weekends result)
  SM
  AS
  HB
  CB
  DA (only if weights remain the same)

• 
  

  #720

  Systemsman
  March 3rd, 2010 20:49

  It was ment to say “you will end up in the poor house”

• 
  

  #721

  Maureen
  March 3rd, 2010 21:18

  I’m there already…..

• 
  

  #722

  readers digest
  March 3rd, 2010 21:52

  Admin,please go back to the old layout

  ps I am not wacky

• 
  

  #723

  kj
  March 3rd, 2010 22:07

  yeah Maureen you seem to be in the red

  going to be harder to have a conversation if last post was ‘??’hrs ago,
  wonder if admin listens to little ole me complaining, feel like a somewhat lone ranger here guys!? sure others will join the ‘time posted’ campaign, y’all being sheep n all
  *do not be offended * just a joke about human nature, you know the kind that lead us to pile on Rambo!

  DomiD- I forgive you, thought it was obviously a joke, release of nervous energy, no big fuss. Don’t think I’d be backing horses if I was taking money really seriously, however I coulda, shoulda in this race in yrs gone by, but think I woulda backed different horses and lost, in reality.

• 
  

  #724

  Neil S
  March 3rd, 2010 22:16

  John I see nobody has answered your question about seven is my number, allow me to.

  I think seven has serious stamina doubts, this I conclude through his dosage and by his form. His only win above 3 miles came in a 4 runner event, and it might be he stayed better than the other 3. Hardly convincing in my view.

• 
  

  #725

  Jackie
  March 3rd, 2010 22:26

  My pc doesn’t go down to the relevant post either each time. I agree re page going back to how it used to be please.

• 
  

  #726

  Neil Se
  March 3rd, 2010 22:42

  I think Admin is fed up about us making his threads way too long. I think he’s change the format (or got the IT crowd to do it) to teach us a lesson.

• 
  

  #727

  Pablo
  March 3rd, 2010 22:48

  I don’t mind the new layout but I do miss:

  1) As kj says, the time of day as well date below username for each post

  2) The number of posts per thread displayed in the ‘Recent posts’ section – useful steer for what’s popular etc – especially for newcomers to the site

• 
  

  #728

  Showlad
  March 3rd, 2010 22:55

  Admin the size of the text is an nightmare – please fix 2mo. Thanks

• 
  

  #729

  Ewok
  March 3rd, 2010 22:55

  Kj, I agree with the time issue, it’s causing me problems too. Also, if you are on an iPhone you have to scroll down 600 posts to reach the bottom of the thread. This isn’t workable and means I won’t be accessing the thread as often as it is taking me ages to find the last post I read! Can someone sort this asap please?

  Onto the racing and does anyone think we will see cane brake before the national? Looking unlikely, which is frustrating.

• 
  

  #730

  Nel S
  March 3rd, 2010 23:01

  I think its admin way of punishing us for making his threads too long.

• 
  

  #731

  Showlad
  March 3rd, 2010 23:03

  OK Team what’s the take on GTL.
  Bet on him now as price will plummet if he runs well on Sat or hold onto your cash for smaller odds but a defo cert if you wait til he is confirmed to be running…?

• 
  

  #732

  Neil S
  March 3rd, 2010 23:10

  Hi Ewok, know what you mean. Got the new HTC Google phone,and scrolling 700+ messages is a pain in the neck. Maybe it admin way of bringing to our attention his threads are getting too long.

• 
  

  #733

  puzzled
  March 4th, 2010 00:21

  It may have been posted already but i could not see it. RP reports that taranis is injured and out of the gold cup and national

• 
  

  #734

  miinnehoma
  March 4th, 2010 01:18

  Time – past bed time.

  As Kevin Keegan would say – “Love it , Love it” or something like that.

  Yes, I love the new layout – at long last. Scrolling back was murder with only 50 posts on a page but I suppose if you only read the last post then that didn’t bother you.
  Thank God we are back to the old system – mighty.

  Think a new vote before Chelt. would be a help but perhaps we should wait until the Gone To Lunch result on Saturday (D-Day). I think after that race we should know the GN winner.

• 
  

  #735

  Ewok
  March 4th, 2010 08:47

  Showlad, I cant bet GTL on his last couple of runs. Betting him now is basically guessing that he will return to some kind of form on Saturday. I will definitely consider betting him after the race on Saturday IF he has run well. Whilst I appreciate that the value may have gone by then, I think its the most sensible approach. My hunch is that he is out of form and wont run well enough to be backed. We’ll see though.

• 
  

  #736

  Pablo
  March 4th, 2010 09:20

  Ewok – agree.

  I guess that the definition of a ‘value’ bet is personal.

  For me he is no value at all for the National on current form. Should he run well on Sunday he’d be much better value at half the price. Prefer to back an in-form stats-match GTL @ 16/1 or 20/1 rather than an out of form GTL @ 33/1 or 40/1.

• 
  

  #737

  Daniel Edwards
  March 4th, 2010 09:35

  here here

  except im on him already and he’s one of my biggest winners!!

  If he runs well on sat, I think you could be looking at a horse going off single price figures on the day.

• 
  

  #738

  Pablo
  March 4th, 2010 09:47

  DE – good luck!

  I think we were saying he’s a no bet today due to doubts about his form and participation (and no McCoy?).

  AS is a difficult one. 25/1 could look very big if Willie Mullins runs him and McCoy on board – that would be single figures on the day if not fav or jf with TT. Congratulations to anyone who’s on at 50s+.

• 
  

  #739

  admin
  March 4th, 2010 09:56

  Hi,

  We now have a new main thread – please use that from now on

  Thanks
  Darren
  Admin

• 
  

  #740

  Daniel Edwards
  March 4th, 2010 10:23

  I agree Pablo – if I wasnt on him already, I ceraintly wouldnt be on him yet.

  AS is missing that one piece of form, for me, that I can point to and say ‘there’s a horse that can win the National’

• 
  

  #741

  The Stayer
  March 5th, 2010 09:15

  I know this is for Cheltenham but I thought I would post it up.

  http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=Cheltenham

• 
  

  #742

  readers digest
  April 24th, 2010 23:02

  Just finished a 12 hours shift.

  So I may be late in posting this happy news.

  Seen the results on 5 text messages from dad walking home, normally takes me 30mins to walk home – I Ran 15mins Flat(should have bee a horse)

  Church Island (followed the advice on this site to back him e/w)
  Lacdoudal now this one I study, Mark B it does pay off, also dad had him on his list!!
  Monkerhostin, looking for a third horse as back up (also on dad list, so back him too)

  This is what it means to me, I will not have to work 12hrs overtime shift tomorrow and will spend the time with my family.
  That’s what this mean to me.

  We are currently dancing away in the living room as I type!!!! Thank you all

  Admin, Thanks for this site.

  Showlad for the advice and keeping order.
  Main tipsters on here(you know who you are) The work and time and Sharing of your information,Thank you.
  Systemsman – since I’ve been on this site I feel very strongly that GN bet will come!!!

  Rascal you’re write up alway have me smiling
  (but was I not smiling when I saw your recommendation!!!)

  Maureen and Jackie nice to know I am not the only female on here!!!

  Thank you, as a Team GN2011 CAN HAPPEN.