Grand National Tips 2010 (5)
Please now use this page as the main thread for all your thoughts for all things related to the Grand national 2010.
Now we’ve all had time to digest the entries for Grand National 2010 are there any horse you are surprised to see included in the entries and any you were disappointed to see not make the list of potential runners? I was quite surprised to see Our Vic entered – I’m not saying he is not an interesting runner but as the Johnson/Pipe team already have Comply Or Die lined up for the race I was surprised they would possibly chance a horse like Our Vic who has won so many top class races for them.
What about possible Cheltenham Foxhunter candidate Roulez Cool from the Waley-Cohen yard? Did anyone see that horse as a possible Grand National candidate? Surely the general bookmaker quote of 40/1 is on the higly cautious side?
Any of the entries surprise our readers?
This post has 765 comments
#1
February 9th, 2010 16:12
Systemsman, I’m also favouring Arbor Supreme over Snowy Morning and My Will because of the ‘possible’ weight and handicap chase stats. Looking at the entries again I think bottom weight could easily be 10-0 OR137? At this moment, cross referencing every stat that I have with OR137 as bottom weight, Arbor Supreme, Eric’s Charm, Gone To Lunch, Snowy Morning, Trabolgan would appear to be the most likely winner. I’ve backed Dream Alliance but I think he would need bottom weight to be no lower than OR140. Roll on weights day.
Daniel, not all of us said unplaced can’t win!!
#2
February 9th, 2010 16:13
I know Crisp, I know (I was with you too remember) but I was just illustrating that there is a stat for everything if you choose to look for it.
I bet I could rule out every runner this year on one stat or another!!
#3
February 9th, 2010 16:16
“do not accept this idea that ‘dismiss a trend when it doesnt suit but apply another to shoot down a different tip you don’t agree with’….no logic there at all…;)”
Nic – hang on a second – isn’t that what you were doing by suggesting Notre Pere could win but Dream Alliance cant?!
#4
February 9th, 2010 16:18
Final word on the Welsh National thing for me – I am not going to dismiss something that happened in the 90′s (twice) as irrelevant.
if others want to, that’s up to them and I wish them all the best.
I dont think there is anything else to say really on the issue!!
#5
February 9th, 2010 16:31
I’m feeling rather guilty about the long discussion you guys have had about Dream Alliance, as I was the one who originally questioned whether he could peak a second time in the season, and whether he could cope with the weights rise.
I have to admit that this was before I realised that Earth Summit’s WN win was in the same season. Having said that, he was only raised a few pounds, because it was a narrow victory.
#6
February 9th, 2010 16:52
not sure you should feel guilty Me6,
I asked question about same season WN GN winners. Certainly one that splits the pack, I am content to think its definately not going to be easy, and not as easy as those who have done it before eg. Earth Summit won GN after with 10st5! Party Politics 10st7 so easier for them too.. harder today but not impossible.
The confusion rolls on with the ‘unplaced’ stat, to clarify I think unplaced GN horses have quite a good chance of winning, like horses that fall, BUT PLACED horses 1,2,3,4 don’t come back and win!
#7
February 9th, 2010 16:58
Surely another factor in Earth Summit’s favour was that he carried only 10’5 on the day and it was soft ground – he must have thought that it Xmas and the Welsh National all over again
Dream Alliance will likely carry around 11’0 and was raised 9 lb for an equally narrow victory
DA is much better on soft
Objectively (trends) he looks very good (and will probably end up in my top 3), but subjectively I don’t think he’ll win on the likely good/good to soft ground
Left to my own devices I’d say ‘no bet’ but that’s why I have put so much time into studying this race and creating a list of trends that make sense to me so that I do bet on the stronger trends horses as the race has been kind to trends backers
#8
February 9th, 2010 16:58
Amberleigh House, KJ!
3rd then first
#9
February 9th, 2010 17:01
whats this facebook thing, apparently one of you is john mcririck! I’d say its possibly best not to reveal yourself in all dimensions
#10
February 9th, 2010 17:13
Yes, Earth Summit had a great weight, 10-5. Mon Mome did carry 11st last year but remember bottom weight was 10-5.
#11
February 9th, 2010 17:17
Amberleigh was special
I’m sure there are others and thats good as I’ve got Snowy! and will undoubtably have COD too even with 11+++++++++++
Someone said last yr or before that stats point to big difference between placed and UNplaced horses, unplaced being better to find winner, maybe interference enroute etc like MM 08, and placed horses obviously not helped by the extra pounds they will be given subsequently.
I think Snowy should get much less than last yr, but may get a couple for his 4th in 08. this is still good with 10st12. And yes Crisp all depends on bottom weight, stats wise
#12
February 9th, 2010 17:53
crisp nugget from last year.
3/39 (add MM) unplaced one year, won the next.
3/39 Irish National winners won.
3/39 wearing blinkers won.
#13
February 9th, 2010 18:00
Initial weights for the 2008 Grand National -
Dream Alliance 11.01
Snowy Morning 10.12
Mon Mome 10.08
Comply Or Die 10.06
Dream Alliance had 10.08 in Welsh National.
#14
February 9th, 2010 18:16
Mon Mome = 161 = top weight say plus guesses for others
Horse 2008 and 2010 weights
Mon Mome 10.08 now 11.10
COD 10.06 now 11.03
Dream Alliance 11.01 now 11.00
Snowy Morning 10.12 now 11.00 or less
Looks quite good for DA but all should be within 12 lb of bottom weight except Mon Mome
And the other 3 are all proven Aintree performers (6 course visits, 2 wins, 1 second, 1 third and no falls)
Ground hasn’t been softer than g/s since heavy in 2001
Ground rather than weight carried is more of a concern to me for DA and probably having to concede weight to Niche Market and Snowy Morning
#15
February 9th, 2010 18:45
It’s really been a struggle to find a strong stand out contender for this years national so thought I may as well put in my top 6 as I wont be around next weekend, or for when the weights are announced
The front of the market is very weak filled with inexperience and likely ‘weighty’ horses. It does look as if the Irish are going to be very strong this year and have also grown wise to Phil Smith’s handicapping regime by giving their horses an outing in the UK, which probably means their mark will remain unaltered.
There is likely to be many front/prominent runners in the line-up with most looking doubtful ‘stayers’ and others who are likely to be carrying plenty of weight. So, as much as I wouldn’t like to back too many hold-up horses in the national., the race could pan out and be tailor made for one to be held-up
In My top 6 I’ve tried to incorporate the trends and have ranked the horses I would be inclined to back at this current stage. Could well be possible that a few trends can be broken, given the current climate in this country and horses not being able to get a run!
The fact they all have an entry, is that there is a chance that any of them will line up on April 10th. Nearly played very safe on the selections, but am willing to take a chance with a few. Thought I’d put up a bit of reasoning behind the selections, so out of the 112 entries my current top 6;
6pts – Iris de Balme – (141 10st 4lbs) Finally got back on the track and had a pretty decent outing over hurdles at the weekend. I don’t think the Scottish national has been a good GN trial in recent years, but this fella can’t be ignored as he absolutely bolted up. He proved it was no fluke a week later at Sandown. He could yet still be a long way ahead of the handicapper. He was given a superb hold-up ride in the Scottish national and quickened away superbly at Ayr. Similar tactics should help him go very close at Aintree
5pts – Arbor Supreme, – (144 – 10st 7lbs) Hold-up horse who has stamina in abundance and I’m not going to give up on him, he disappointed in the Irish national where the race was almost run in ‘two-halves’ and wasn’t a true enough test of stamina for him. He hasn’t done much yet this season either and preparation has been far from ideal. Hopefully he can return to somewhere near his best in the next couple of runs. The willhill trophy would seem a suitable target for him and McCoy completing the GC/GN double and finally getting the Sports Personality which he so much deserves.
4pts – Royal County Star – (145 10st 8lbs) The one ‘trends’ horse I actually like! They tried to get him to the national last year but failed to recover quickly enough from his hennessy exploits. Question marks over his jumping perhaps, but Paul Carberry gave him a superb waiting ride in the Kerry National to put up a career best effort. The same man on board again and he’d have every chance
3pts – Mr Pointment – (141 10st 4lbs) Paul Murphy worked wonders last year with his two runners. MP has been off the track so long but I wonder if Mr Murphy can work a little more magic with this one. Rated 155 in the national 2 years ago and was running well, till the weight had It’s say. A course specialist who is now a stone lower and likely to have a feather weight
2pts – Gone To Lunch – (146 10st 8lbs) Thought his display at Sandown on Saturday was quite encouraging. He jumped well enough, but the trip was clearly too short. He’s another hold-up horse with bags of stamina but do need to see just a little more next time
1pt – Snowy Morning – (147 10st 9lbs) May yet go up a couple of pounds as he’s returned to somewhere near his best this season. 3rd time lucky for him? Always seems to show his best at Aintree but the tendency to always put in a poor jump or two means I don’t know if he is quite good enough to win. A good round in the Bobbyjo and his price should plummet
Obviously had a bit of a guess on the weights!! Selections may change if those weights are miles out. Four hold-up horses!! Happy to read any thoughts
One horse that still intrigues me is Trust Fund as I’m convinced he has never been able to show his best in an injury plagued career. The other Cloudy Lane, hopefully he’ll run at Haydock in two weeks and will watch that race with keen interest when I return
Showlad – all can be added. Away Thursday onwards before the Cheltenham/Aintree assault!!!!
#16
February 9th, 2010 19:01
I think L’Escargot was 3rd or 4th in Crisp’s National.
There is also Red Rum, 2nd, 2nd, then 1st.
#17
February 9th, 2010 19:05
Pablo, someone has made the point that Comply Or Die put up a better performance last year, than when winning. I haven’t looked at the figures (recently), but I think Comply Or Die will be 3 or 4 lbs lower than Mon Mome, rather than 7.
#18
February 9th, 2010 19:07
Interesting choices TC
#19
February 9th, 2010 19:13
Showlad says:
February 9, 2010 at 2:08 PM
Hi Miinehoma. Surely a win for SM on the eve of the weights would be the worst thing for his camp?
Will he not just be looking for a good work out on Sat in pref to a win?
Showlad – I thought the following might have explained that-
( phil is not going to let Snowy run off OR147 10.07 anyway, more like 10.11 )
OK, if you have been following some of crisp 73′s new stats, then you will know that Snowy needs a chase win to match these. If he wins I don’t think phil can give him anymore than say 4LBS (it’s not a gold cup or welsh nat. type of race). So his OR147 10.07 goes to OR151 10.11 with Albertas Run on OR164 11.10, which I think phil would have given him anyway. If the top 4 don’t run and Mon Mome is new top wt. on OR161, then both DA and SM are on 11.00 – all horses will go up 3LBS.
If Albertas Run is top wt. with OR164 then bottom wt. could be OR140 – thats 67 horses. There are also 7 horses on OR139, if they get in and the wts. rise by 3LBS. then both DA and SM are still 12LBS. off bottom wt.(10.02). Bobs your uncle.
#20
February 9th, 2010 19:22
Mon Mome beat COD 12 lengths going away and I think any rise in the weights would be harsh on COD – he was punished 15 lb for winning after all
My Will was raised for Gold Cup run
State Of Play dropped in weights
#21
February 9th, 2010 19:44
So TC its a stick up!
Four hold up horses, ones gotta do it right?
was wondering which Scot Nat flyer you had in mind the other day… both is the answer, but Iris comes out ontop, is that because of GTLs recent outings, or direct comparison between the 2 around ayr? which I haven’t done actually, if you’ve gleened anything there please post. I hope Iris stays oncourse with his comeback, wanna back a flyer and will be easy for me esp if McCoy doesn’t ride GTL;)
#22
February 9th, 2010 19:50
Me6, yes that someone was me. I was using the RPR as my bench mark. In year he won his RPR was 158 and the year he came second it was 160. Of course the counter argument is that you only have to win by what’s necessary.
#23
February 9th, 2010 20:29
TC your selections are clearly in the right weight range (or OR) so will have a good look at them all.
We both agree on GTL (if running)and AS so far but I will be looking for others around 10.04 to 10.10 so your list is very useful. DA will be my top weight selection – he can only win if he proves he’s was good enougth (had he chosen to do so) to run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (as i think he is – not to win but to run creditably)and can only show this on GN day. The GN is all about “Dreams” – a “cabbage patch” Grand National winner!!! But we also need a good portfolio to go along with him with lower weights and class.
Looks like I am going to have to look more at these from recent comments:
Snowy Morning
My Will
Eric’s Charm
Trabolgan
Royal County Star
But may just have to wait for the weights as I just blow hot and cold about these and change my mind day in day out – I think I will need to lock myself in that public library for an afternoon or two to study them in depth.
Wont back anything thats just had its first run of the season (post Jan 1st) or not run yet.
Already on anti-post
NM
DA
GTL (if running)
HB
AS
Lost CH (probaby headed of Irish National???)
#24
February 9th, 2010 20:56
I rate Ballyfitz VERY highly. Good races this season – will be fit! – keeping on in his 4th in Paddy Power and same in 5th in Welsh and same again in his win at Sandown.
Dark Horse for sure. 2 wins (at 25f) and 2 second places at 24f and 6 of his 9 chase starts.
#25
February 9th, 2010 21:35
i had to remind myself of just how good IDB Scottish national win actually was, and it wasnt a fluke as proven a week later – so he could yet be a long way ahead in the handicap. A lot was made of NM performance in the hennessy, but GTL was just as impressive and is a more thorough stayer. Was it a good ‘staying’ trial with the two paces of the race?
likely to be a strong pace from the start in the national and i just can’t see a great stayer amongst the front/prominent runners although Mr Pointment would be interesting off a stone lower mark. So i do think the race is going to favour thehold-up horses
#26
February 9th, 2010 22:00
The horse I really want to know about is Casey Jones. As far as I know, we haven’t heard his plans since the ‘travel sickness’ update a few months ago.
#27
February 9th, 2010 22:12
Mr McCririck – facebook fan !?!
are you currently posting on here?
#28
February 9th, 2010 22:20
Does anyone have any One Cool Cookie news or at least his last heard plans – is he GN bound?
#29
February 9th, 2010 22:52
I would love to agree with crisp and systems re- gone to lunch because I have backed him but I can’t. His race on sat. was shocking. Why did they run him. A distant 3rd. or 4th. would have shaved a pound or 2 off but 9th., pushing and shoving out the back was wicked. OK, he was 5th. in the hennessy but I think he did the same thing – pushing and shoving. If snowy hadn’t walked through the 2nd or 3rd last, I think he would have finished in front of g.t.o. At times on sat. I couldn’t look at the race, it was so bad. At that rate in the GN, the jockey will have a stroke by bechers 2nd. time. He’s become a right monkey/donkey and unless he wins the blue sq. gold cup I think he will frank how poor the scot. nat. form usually is.
#30
February 9th, 2010 23:09
Miinnehoma – I’m in two minds about GTL
On the one hand he has 2 key race placings and some nice form, but on the other he has looked unreliable recently
Also have to agree about the Scottish National form – the race was poor but GTL was top weight so don’t know how to assess him
Just thought that Niche Market’s and GTL’s runs in the Hennessy were like chalk and cheese – Niche Market looked like he belonged there up with the pace in one of the most competitive handicaps of the year, whereas GTL’s jockey was like you say pushing and shoving along – maybe that’s why McCoy gets the best out of GTL?
TC – you keep saying that the Hennessy & Irish National were slow races – do you have some figures to back this up?
From Nick Mordin’s website about the Hennessy(and he would probably say if the pace was suspect)…
“It looks like Niche Market needs yielding or softer ground, a galloping track and the stronger pace generated in handicap company to bring his stamina into play. He’d won the Irish National and a valuable Listed chase at Ascot the only previous two times he met these conditions, and it took two top class chasers to stop him making it three out of three.”
#31
February 10th, 2010 00:28
Tc, I think you’re remembering Iris through rose coloured glasses. Yes he won the Scottish national, but was nowhere in the Bet365 gold cup.
#32
February 10th, 2010 00:31
Sorry he finished 4th just 5 1/4 lengths away.
#33
February 10th, 2010 00:40
The horse that beat Iris at Sandown that day was the Monk or Monkerhostin to give him his full name. He won on Saturday, could Iris De Balme also comeback and win the national, you never know.
#34
February 10th, 2010 01:11
Totally agree with Miinnehoma’s assessment of GTL’s effort on saturday shocking looked a complete monkey of a horse. How that could possibly be described as encouraging is beyond me! and over 3miles too short a distance!
Having backed Niche Market am I the only one really worried about his run on Saturday maybe I’m being negative but I can’t see what good is going to come of running just before weights day. IF he runs too well and gets anywhere near Denman Phil Smith will be watching and making notes! And if he runs like a drain that isn’t going to reassure me of his well being either, guess he’s got to tread a razors edge between the two!
#35
February 10th, 2010 01:44
The last 4 GN winners had all been given 10.06 on wts. day.
2009 Mon Mome was 34th. on the list, with only 13 horses from 11st. up, cut-off 74.
2008 C.O.D. was 59th. with 26 horses from 11st. up, cut-off 73.
2007 Silver Birch was 56th. with 25 horses from 11st. up, cut-off 75.
I do hope Trabolgan OR137/77th. on list some how makes the cut, as I have my shirt(small shirt) on him for some time but it’s not looking good.
Why he didn’t run on Saturday ( which I thought was a cert and a must ) is a worry and he’s not entered in any races this week. Can only hope that he is ok and that phil helps out, which he might.
#36
February 10th, 2010 07:40
pablo – i havent said the IN or the hennessy was slow. Its the fact they both had a slow early pace. for me there were better ‘stayers’ in the race that finished further back
#37
February 10th, 2010 07:52
sorry my mistake yes you said slow early pace
but how have you measured that ‘fact’? and was the early pace slower than the year before for either race?
#38
February 10th, 2010 09:14
I’m no time expert but having reviewed both races I would say that they were truly run with likely pacesetters up at the front in the early stages – Joe Lively & Denman up with the pace in the Hennessy on the first circuit & Church Island in the top 3 or 4 all the way round in a 28 runner field in the Irish National
So for me the only question mark with Niche Market is the Presenting angle but the sample is too small to categorically write off Presenting’s progeny as unlikely GN winners
In fact only two Presenting horses have tried – Joaaci (66/1 fell 20th) & Brooklyn Brownie (22/1 fell 2nd)
#39
February 10th, 2010 10:07
TC, brave shout at this stage with Iris De Balme but if he shows he’s back to what he was there will be a lot more of us with you come raceday that’s for sure. I wonder how many entrants have won a long distance chase off OR143, granted he had 7lb claimer on board, and will carry less than 11st.
Looking at previous GN winners, with their form, who ran 3 or less preps, the four most recent …
0f1- Ayala
1- Aldaniti
12p- Last Suspect
10- Miinnehoma
Can I take you all back to 1963? Found some interesting stuff in the Times archive. Ayala, 9yr old, 66/1. 3 preps. Unplaced and fell in his first two comeback races, Won the third, a 24f chase, at 7/2 jf, just ten days before GN. After GN the Times journalist talked about a new era.
”The change in the shaping of the fences (1961)has reduced by half the number of falls … consequently those riders who set out to ride in an old fashioned style-keeping wide to avoid trouble and caring little how far the leaders got away from them on the first circuit- could never recover the ground. The horses in front, taking the inside on corners, stayed there … thus trouble in front is no longer likely to come to the aid of those behind.”
Since that ‘significant’ fence change post 1960 GN, and not including Red Rum, only ….
Gay Trip 8.11-5 race time(top weight in a 28 runner generally considered well below average field)
L’Escargot 12.11-3(won two gold cups, 3rd and 2nd in GN)
Grittar 9.11-5 (only 8 finished after a crazy gallop down to Bechers 1st time, something like 18 out of the 39 runners were out of the race after Bechers 1st time, two of his closest pursuers fell close to home and brought down another)
Corbiere 8.11-4 (10 finished, 41 started, race time was 9m 47sec)
another significant fence change in 1989
Hedgehunter 9.11-1 (bottom weight 10-5)
Mon Mome 9.11-0 (bottom weight 10-5)
have carried 11-0 or more to victory.
#40
February 10th, 2010 10:11
Sorry ..
Rhyme N Reason 9.11-0 (race time 9m-53sec, only 16/40 runners in handicap proper)
#41
February 10th, 2010 11:40
Quality research Crisp – of all the stats perhaps the weight one is the strongest – who knows?
On Iris De Balme – what to make of him?
He does stay very well that’s for sure.
But his two major performances have come in very lop-sided races where the top weight was the only horse to carry more than 11’0 and on fast ground.
Still not convinced he’s the real deal but need to see him over fences again or at least in a better race than last time.
Anyone know where he goes next?
#42
February 10th, 2010 12:10
I’m sure that after the Scottish National they said the Grand National would be out of the question because he is such a tiny horse, so I was surprised to see the race as his main aim this year.
#43
February 10th, 2010 12:40
Brody says: “Having backed Niche Market am I the only one really worried about his run on Saturday maybe I’m being negative but I can’t see what good is going to come of running just before weights day.”
I have pointed out before sometimes NOT winning is as important as winning (prior to weights coming out)but its a very dangerous stratagy but less so up against the best of the best like Denman (who may win the Gold Cup in my book, but thats based purely on the fact the GCup is at Cheltenham)so long as he’s not just a length or two or three behind but about 10 – 15, but how does the jockey judge that fine line to lose a pound or two rather than gaining a pound or two?
#44
February 10th, 2010 12:52
Been looking at entries for Grand National in Weekender. The top weight could be Albertas Run on a mark of 164.
#45
February 10th, 2010 13:39
Totally agree re Niche’s run. Why run on eve of weights and have to walk a tightrope? He’s had one ballbusting great run behind Denman. Does he need another – me thinks not.
Anyone know of news/intentions re Mr Pointment?
PS we’ve all been very good and patient little boys and girls and now only less than a week to publishing of weights.
That’s when the fun begins!!
#46
February 10th, 2010 14:03
Gone To Lunch OR 145. Lovely jubbly. Only rated 2lbs more now than when winning Grade2 novice 14 months ago. Rather a monkey on 145 than 153! where he started this season. 6lb’s less than when 5th in Hennessy. Let him have a go, Mr Scott.
#47
February 10th, 2010 14:05
I don’t think you’ve got much to worry about with NM – he was getting 29lb from Denman last time and beaten 7 1/4 lengths
This time they are on level weights – I’d be suprised if there’s less than 20 lengths between them and Denman won’t need to run an RPR in the 180s – he has nothing to beat rated within 24 lb of him!
But it will be interesting to see how Tricky Trickster gets on in receipt of 3 lb from NM and Air Force One in receipt of 6 lb from NM
#48
February 10th, 2010 14:18
Beginning to look good on trends that monkey GTL – although now 3 lb lower than when 2nd in Scottish last year – which race will it be?
#49
February 10th, 2010 14:21
If Gone To Lunch is ‘cheetah’, will McCoy be his Johnny Weissmuller?
#50
February 10th, 2010 14:58
Gone To Lunch has always been spot-on with the stats/trends, infact one of the top 5 horses re- my stats but I would still trade the 3LBS for a better performance last sat. As I said a distant 3rd./4th. would have done the trick. Blimey, he was only OR148 = 10.08 anyway. So, he’s now 10.05 but with 4 poor prep runs and I include the hennessy. I have several AP bets on him but in my book he needs to win the blue sq. gold cup or some chase soon.
#51
February 10th, 2010 15:13
What does everyone make of the fact GTL has only won a chase with 6 runners in it? He has been placed in a chase with 17. It doesn’t look as though Mr Frisk or Bindaree won a chase with more than 8 runners.
#52
February 10th, 2010 15:25
GONE to Lunch OR 145 – yipeeeeee now thats what i call a GN winning OR (weight)- he deserves to run and can the owner/trainer resist when they see his winning weight – I think not? Expect the unexpected.
#53
February 10th, 2010 15:34
Just had another look at GTL’s form on Racing Post site.
ANYONE KNOW WHY HE IS LISTED AS COMING 2ND ON 28Apr09 BUT LISTED AS THIS SEASON? (AND THAT GOES FOR A FEW OTHERS)- I THOUGHT THE OFFICIAL SEASON STARTED ON MAY 1ST? He does need a 1/2/3 otherwise this season. Trainer has done a top job getting him down to OR145 and a lovely possible winning weight. Top trends other than that 1/2/3 but as I said RPost has him 2nd this season.
Any answers?
#54
February 10th, 2010 15:34
I was a fan of GTL at the start of the season but his last 2 runs have been dire. They have not been the runs of a horse who’s canny trainer has left something to work with a hope of getting the horse been beaten, they have been the runs of a horse that looks like it’s lacking enthusiasm for the game. Even if you scratch off the last two runs, he doesn’t travel well in his races. Although the National is over 4.5m they don’t hang about, and I can see him getting badly outpaced like he was at Ayr last year. In the Scottish National his stamina eventually kicked in and he stayed on past inferior horses, but I can’t see him being able to do that against the better class of animal that takes part in the National.
#55
February 10th, 2010 15:36
Systemsman,
He was 2nd to Rare Bob at Punchestown (May), which is officially this season though is really the end of last season.
#56
February 10th, 2010 15:37
I have that fact as an anti, that his wins have been in small fields all with AP aboard. As well as his bad run, last week.
#57
February 10th, 2010 16:01
Interesting that Notre Pere has had its mark reduced a few lbs after Sunday’s race. With quite a few at the top of the handicap closely matched (especially if we factor in an Aintree penalty for Black Apalachi and Vic Venturi), there seems less scope for the handicapper to compress the weights as he did in recent years.
By my estimate he may only be able to compress by 4-6lbs this year, compared to 8lbs in 2009.
Good news for horses hovering around the 11st mark, if Notre Pere were to run.
#58
February 10th, 2010 17:38
GTL beat some decent horses in the hennessy? yes, he was niggled along a fair way in both the hen and SN but reason i was encouraged in comparison to his last run, was the fact he got from A to B. How many others horses currently at the front of the market would you have confidence in completing a chase at the moment? more importantly he jumped adequately without be anything flashy. What do you want him to do? peak mid-season?
#59
February 10th, 2010 18:10
Iris de Balme completed the Scottish National course in exactly the same time as Hello Bud did when winning on the same good ground.
#60
February 10th, 2010 18:21
Anyone think Le Beau Bai will run? Quite like this one. It likes it soft tho and is only 7yo.
#61
February 10th, 2010 18:21
Systemsman, the new national hunt season begins as soon as the mixed sandown meeting finishes. I think the very next day, but won’t be surprised if it was the evening meeting.
#62
February 10th, 2010 18:33
crisp – Maybe J.P. will get the cheque book out and buy GTL so AP can be Johnny Weissmuller.
GTL has won 2 hurdle races with 12 and 13 runners and his 2nd. in SN (11.10)with 17 runners looks ok but I think -Stayer- said it “he doesn’t travel well in his races”.
He doesn’t seem to have that important cruising speed that makes things alot easier. Lets hope he peaks sometime.
#63
February 10th, 2010 18:36
Admin: Can you please put up that ‘runner updates’ thread. We are all losing info forgetting who is intended to run in the GN and who isn’t and having to treck back through reems of posts to find what someone else has posted up ages ago about a horse.
Point in case here is info Domi on Le Beau. Great potential with 4 wins at 24+f in the last year and a good 3rd in Welsh nat.
“The Blue Square Gold Cup is definitely Le Beau Bai’s target at the moment – hopefully it will rain enough for him.
“He is also in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup at Leopardstown but he is unlikely to run in that because I see that Money Trix is in there and it doesn’t seem terribly sensible to take him on at level weights.
“Haydock is a good, stiff track that should play to Le Beau Bai’s strengths and is very much plan A.”
He added: “[Part-owner] Lord Daresbury is very keen for Le Beau Bai to be entered in this year’s John Smith’s Grand National. The horse is very short on experience but he is the sort that would jump around there. For all he is only little, he is very careful and clever as a cat.
“Oliver [Greenhall] would ride him as he gets on very well with the horse. His father has horses in the yard but I use him because he is a very good rider. He is a great horseman and I am lucky to have him.”
#64
February 10th, 2010 18:39
Can anyone figure out why BFT is declared to be running in a graduation chase this Friday (Ruby on board), 4 days before the weights are announced?? Seems an odd decision given that he remains on a mark of 149 for The National
#65
February 10th, 2010 20:03
Banjo, only one prep for BFT so far, fitness more important? considering the weather maybe best to take opportunities to run.
noticed My Will stated intentions…
The 10-year-old, trained by Paul Nicholls, is on course for the totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup and the John Smith’s Grand National, in which he finished fifth and third respectively in 2009.
Miinnehoma- Great posting this morning, how funny all last 4 winners originally allocated 10-06!
Connections have, however, yet to decide who will ride My Will in the Gold Cup in which the Nicholls team hold all the aces with Kauto Star and Denman.
“We haven’t really got that far. Everything’s been up in the air as to who rides what,” My Will’s owner Andy Stewart told At The Races.
“Nick Scholfield gets on very well with him and rode him in the Gold Cup last year, or it could be Christian Williams, or somebody else.
“We haven’t made any decisions at all away from obviously Denman and Kauto Star, who will be ridden by Tony McCoy and Ruby Walsh respectively.
“He’s also going for the National, but whether or not he’s good enough to go two places better than last year, we don’t know.
“He has matured that much more and he ran out of steam a little bit last year.
“At Becher’s second time last year he was almost on the floor. We’ll take our chance in the Grand National again with him.”
Miinnehoma- Great posting this morning, how funny all last 4 winners originally allocated 10-06!
#66
February 10th, 2010 20:11
“The Stayer says:
February 10, 2010 at 3:36 PM
Systemsman,
He was 2nd to Rare Bob at Punchestown (May), which is officially this season though is really the end of last season.”
Sorry The Stayer but the Racing Poat has the Punchestoen Boylesports.com Chamption Novice Chase Grade 1 as 28.04.2009 and is then listed as run in this season so whats up? (this also applies to some others horses who ran in late April)- is the RP wrong or does the season not start on May 1st (or is it the Irish season not the UK one?).
GTL beat Cooldine on 11.10 so not bad was it? Of more concern GTL ran as a Novice last season – how many GN winners in the last 20 years have won the year after novice racing ended? (I know one or two out there will have the answer)
#67
February 10th, 2010 20:17
“Neil S says:
February 10, 2010 at 6:21 PM
Systemsman, the new national hunt season begins as soon as the mixed sandown meeting finishes. I think the very next day, but won’t be surprised if it was the evening meeting.”
Sorry Neil S didnt read your post before I posted the last post. So what date do you make the first day of the new season this year? (looks like GTL got his 1/2/3 in very early!!!)- I dont care if he done it on the first day or the day before the GN so long as he has a 1/2/3 this season – for stats purposes it counts (same issue with AS)!
#68
February 10th, 2010 20:22
The season ends with the Whitbread.
Therefore, the season starts the day after the Whitbread.
Simples.
#69
February 10th, 2010 20:31
Lord Gyllene & Bindaree were both Novices the year before they won
#70
February 10th, 2010 20:47
Your right systems, GTL was in front of Joncol and Cooldine in that race. So he has the class and does finish well but the race report I think backs up that he hasn’t the cruising speed but maybe the GN distance will suit him better.
Chased leaders, headway to 2nd after 4th, dropped to 4th 9th, mistake and ridden 3 out, stayed on under pressure straight, 3rd and mistake last, kept on run-in to 2nd close home.
Novice wise – 3 I think – No. 6, Bindaree and Lord Gyllene.
#71
February 10th, 2010 21:16
Systemsman, this season begun on April 26 2009 Sunday which as Me6 says is the day after the Whitbread.
#72
February 10th, 2010 21:26
Excellent info Showlad, many thanks. Le Beau Bai is very interesting if he runs and it comes up soft.
#73
February 10th, 2010 22:18
kj – yes, 10.06, 4 in a row, can you adam and eve it. After all this work it seems all we have to do is back every horse on 10.06. What are the chances of 5 in a row.
From last weeks work on GN OR’s, I found only one runner on 10.06. If I give you his name the price might drop. So, I will use code.
To receive your FREE code book please send 10 euro to my home address.
OK, fair enough, his name is ( kj, come closer to the screen so I can whisper it ) Deutschland, 7 yr. old – no chance.
#74
February 10th, 2010 22:33
i make it, on current ratings and if Albertas Run is left in and likely to be dropped a pound, then these will get 10’06
State of Play
Character Building
Chelsea Harbour
Kornati Kid
Royal County Star
Gone To Lunch
GTL!!
#75
February 10th, 2010 22:34
Showlad,
The thread you asked for has been there since yesterday:
http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-2010/grand-national-2010-intended-runner-updates/
#76
February 10th, 2010 23:00
“Neil S says:
February 10, 2010 at 9:16 PM
Systemsman, this season begun on April 26 2009 Sunday”
Many thanks. So GTL does have his 1/2/3 in a chase this season (as does AS) for the stats anyway! And a Novice last season can win.
“GTL was in front of Joncol and Cooldine in that race.”
Yes on 11.10 so just think what may be possible on around 10.06 – turbo charged I think. Anyway the right weight, the right OR and the right trends and can race up with the best. The 41/2 miles may be just what he needs to turn over DA or NM?
Re: the 10.06 thing. Well if we look just outside the box and look for the best trends/stats runners between 10.04 and say 10.10 I think we will get close to finding the winner (NM and DA will have to run beyond their best or at their best to match a good light weight runner with form and or class like GTL buts its possible).
#77
February 10th, 2010 23:06
Thanks Admin didn’t know you’d posted it up. Clever Admin
#78
February 11th, 2010 01:18
Niche Market – Left-handed RPR154
Can anyone give me his best left-handed RPR before the Hennesy.
#79
February 11th, 2010 03:22
Stat Wise -
My Will – 10yrs. old
OR150-RPR166-TS157 – form -275
1 – If his next and last prep run is the Gold Cup, then unless he is placed, he will break the top 3 finish in any of the previous 3 runs stat. 19/19
2 – H/C chases 12-1, should have won 3.
3 – has not won 1 of his last 10 chases by 1st.Jan. 19/19 stat.
4 – has not won 1 of his last 10 chases by GN day 27/27 ( unless he wins Gold Cup )
5 – fails – 3 H/C chase wins or 20%+ chase win s/r. 19/19
6 – fails – 2 H/C chase wins or 20% chase win s/r. 19/19
7 – fails – has run in 2 many CI races(25). Last 19 winners 3-15 races.
8 – 3rd. last year – only Amberleigh House 3rd. in ’03 has won the following year. 1/25yrs.
Mind you, my will did run a cracker last year on 11.04 with only 2 prep runs, 3 months apart.
#80
February 11th, 2010 08:33
Surely the top 3 in last 3 races is only a tenuous indicator of form because it is very dependent on the class and type of race the horse runs in?
Bobbyjo, Papillon, Numbersixvalverde & Mon Mome all got their top 3 over hurdles
Whereas My Will has been running against better horses over fences – Grade 1, Hennessy and £25k Class 2 (poor run very soon after Hennessy so possible excuses)
For me it’s another one of these stats that is nice to have on your side but that I don’t use – prefer a decent RPR during season
A 3rd in a Novice hurdle doesn’t really scream National winner to me any more than a 4th in the same race would especially if the aim of the race is merely to keep the horse ticking over (for example how many runners in the race? was the horse staying on? over what distance was the race?)
#81
February 11th, 2010 09:06
Why oh why is Bob Buckler even considering running Niche Market this weekend? Rated 148 right now which should put the horse the correct side of 11st come National day.
Take the Aon Chase. I can see the point that if he gets stuffed by Denman (as you expect he would) his rating won’t be altered but what if Denman runs a shocker and NM only finishes a few lengths behind or what if Denman falls and NM actually wins a Grade 2? These things could happen and if they did the handicapper could over-react and put NM up 10lbs. Bye bye National.
Then there’s this graduation chase at Exeter. Why run the risk of beating useful animals like BFT, TT, Kicks For Free etc off level weights just a few days before the weights come out. Again, the handicapper could over-react and stick the horse up 5lbs+
If they really need to get a run into the horse there are options the weekend after the weights come out. Why potentially f**k up his handicap mark now?
#82
February 11th, 2010 09:12
Re: One Cool Cookie, he was entered last year and as far as I can make out from the comments below, connections wanted to run him but were disappointed with the weight allocated to him so pulled him out. That shouldnt be a problem this year as he is starting to look well handicapped, now rated 142 after reaching 153 in the early part of last season.
These are Swans comments after the weights were allocated last season:
“He seems to have given One Cool Cookie way more than he should have when you consider Exotic Dancer is rated 174. He’s ran in England off around 150 and has ran to his mark.
“I don’t know where he gets this mark from – it’s absolutely crazy. It’s unlikely he will run with that weight.
He ran him in the Irish version instead in which he was making good ground in 7th place, 2 fences out before taking the wrong course.
Another interesting comment is in the “Tote 10 to follow list of horses, where they include a quick one liner about the horse. In OCC’s case the comment was:
“hurdling to protect chase mark for National”
The hurdling bit is wrong as he has run over fences a few times this season. So whilst the National hint could be wrong too, they have got an inkling from somewhere that he may be aimed at the race. If he is, then the price available now doesn’t make sense. Ran a decent race in the Irish version, on a good OR, bred to have the Stamina for the race (his sire Old Vic is responsible for stayers such as Black Apalachi, Comply or Die, Chelsea harbour and Southern Vic). Connections considered Aintree last year and with his lower rating, maybe he will be allocated a more realistic weight. Therefore, i’m taking a punt they do the same this year, at a triple figure price.
#83
February 11th, 2010 09:31
Hey TC – can u tell me a bit more about Royal County Star . Im getting a bit sweet on this horse as he keeps popping up on my trends stats . Do you have any more knowledge on why they didnt run him in this last year ? Im tempted to put some more of this weekends pocket money on him but Ive a nagging feeling that they will enter him and then send him to fairyhouse instead ? Thats whats stopping me lumping on . Was it because the horse wasnt right last year or was it because they didnt like the weight he got or were worried about the fences. ? I like this horse a lot – Ive noticed he keeps popping up on other peoples stats as well and could be a v interesting contender . Does anybody know if Tony Martin is seriously considering him this year ?
#84
February 11th, 2010 09:51
Sorry Guys and Girls – might have been talkking rubbish . Royal County Star wasnt entered last year from what I can see. Think it was 2008 where he was entered but ended up going to Fairyhouse..
#85
February 11th, 2010 10:03
I just wanna go back to BEAT THE BOYS quickly if I may;
People have said he runs well after a break and that all of his disappointing runs seem to come when he has not had a break between racing.
That’s just plain wrong im afraid!
Last season:-
1st run – 3rd behind Joe Lively in Servo chase at Cheltenham
2nd run – (6 weeks later) PU in Welsh National)
3rd run – (7 weeks later) F (when struggling) in Blue Square Gold Cup
4th run – (4 weeks later) PU in Midlands National
This season:-
1st run – WON at Chepstow (C2 chase 14k – off 127)
2nd run – (4 weeks later) PU in Badger Ales
3rd run – (3 weeks later) WON Listed Chase at Newcastle
4th run – (2 weeks later ) PU in listed chase at Cheltenham
SO, whilst he does appear to go well fresh (at the start of the season) I dont think its accurate to say if he has a gap between races he runs well:-
Last season there were two races where he had been off the track for 6-7 weeks and he was disappointing in both.
This season his only good run (aside from seasonal reappearance) has come after just a 3 week break.
I think it is better to say this horse simply only runs well when he wants to!! Will that be at Aintree, the toughest test of them all?? Who knows.
Clearly if he puts his best foot forward he can win, but he could also easily pull up after a circuit!!
All that said, I have thought so much about this one that I will still have a tiny saver bet come weights day!!
The price is sufficiently high on Betfair at the moment to make it worthwhile, but it will be the smallest of savers.
#86
February 11th, 2010 10:19
Speaking of big prices, Eric’s Charm seems to have gone for a massive walk.
Think he was trading around the 500 mark when I last looked!!
Have we missed some news?
#87
February 11th, 2010 11:52
“Pablo says:
February 11, 2010 at 8:33 AM
Surely the top 3 in last 3 races is only a tenuous indicator of form because it is very dependent on the class and type of race the horse runs in?
For me it’s another one of these stats that is nice to have on your side but that I don’t use – prefer a decent RPR during season”
Could not agree more Pablo and a stat that will fall soon.I think its far more important to have a 1/2/3 in a chase in the winning season.
Now for a Systemsman’s News Flash:
Gone to Lunch promoted to joint first in my top six!
I slept on it and could just not get away from GTL on OR 145 and his performance last April on 11.10. The price profile has turned around also from 250/1 down to 55/1 (50 last night) so the market also thinks the trainer/owner may run him in the GN and if he does the price will drop, drop drop!
So this is my current top 4
1. Gone To Lunch
1. Dream Alliance
1. Niche Market
4. Hello Bud
NM and HB look much weeker on trends/stats than the other two.
Amazing but these four were my anti-post bets at Christmas so I have gone around in a full circle an ended up at the same palce (bar losing CH but AS is still a possability.
40/1 still available on GTL in the high street so at the risk on a non runner (you cant get the big anti-post price without some risk) I am going to top up now.
His trainer should be awarded a medal for getting him spot on for the GN stats wise.
#88
February 11th, 2010 12:20
Re Eric’s charm’s odds: no his odds have actually come in, he was over 500 a cpl weeks ago, the high 400s a cpl days ago and now down to high 300s – so if anything his odds are dropping.
#89
February 11th, 2010 12:29
Sorry, I must have misread!
Surely though even 300 is worrying – any horse that is being lined up for the race, and will make the cut (as he will) shouldnt be this price!
#90
February 11th, 2010 12:34
Maybe people are just wary of his record left handed. Might be tempted for a couple of quid as a fun bet though.
Who knows, he could jump right at the canal turn, take out half of the field and be left on his own hehe.
#91
February 11th, 2010 12:39
@ Gammers
Interesting point about Notre Pere…just noted his 5 pt reduction for Sun. He does fit the trend of Welsh National winners performing well in the race 1 or 2 seasons AFTER their W. N. wins or places. He won the WN in 2008.
Mon Mome 2nd in 2007 WN wins 2009 GN
Silver Birch wins 2004 WN wins 2007 GN
Supreme Glory wins 2001 WN 2nd in 2003 GN
Bindaree won his WN AFTER his Aintree win.
Have mentiond peviously that SAME SEASON placed WN horses have an appalling record at Aintree ( I will say that Mon Mome would have finished closer in 2008 GN if hadnt been brought to a standstill when Butlers Cabin fell in front of it at 2nd Bechers)although no winner of last 10 yrs has attempted the double.
If…and it’s a big if…NP does get 11st -11.2 and the bottom weights are around 10.6 …I can’t rule him out at all although he needs give in the ground.
Trainers Quote:
“He will be entered for the John Smith’s Grand National. He will have plenty of weight in the race but is is four-and-a-half miles and even if the ground is better than ideal for him, the long distance would help him.”
The SAME SEASON record of WN horses is the one factor that puts me off DA. Other than that he ticks plenty boxes…but…if he gets around 11st and the handicap is compressed….so does NP!!
#92
February 11th, 2010 13:04
Notre Pere is too slow to go the gallop in a good-ground National.
#93
February 11th, 2010 13:08
OTC goes in the 3m Class 3 chase at Kempton tomorrow. Shoulders 11-11. Current rating is 132 so a win is probably necessary tomorrow.
#94
February 11th, 2010 13:35
Hi everyone,
Love the insight and debate on here. Served me well last year when backing State of Play early anti-post!
I assume everyone is ruling out Tricky Trickster due to age?
My early thoughts for what they are worth include Niche Market,My Will, Black Apalachi and Snowy Morning.
Niche Market’s win in the Irish National put him straight on the short list. His run behind Denman only solidified him in my mind and I think he shows up best in the spring.
My Will one year on, I think is cracking value. If he gets a good weight he could be a steal at current prices.
Black Apalachi looked all over the winner last season before falling. Immediately after last year’s race I thought he was a bet for next year(although I thought the same for Butler’s Cabin last year). He has done nothing this year but is being trained specifically for the race. This weekend will be interesting regarding him.
Finally SM. He seems to have found his zest for the game again with some solid runs. Whether the handicapper will be kind to him and give him a squeak time will tell but at current odds he is definitely work a few quid each way.
#95
February 11th, 2010 13:37
Interesting Titbit for tomorrow for Over the Creek
Is History about to repeat itself:
Comply or Dies Grand National winning season
1st Run – 16th of 19 – 3rd last
2nd Run – pulled up of 10
3rd Run – Blinkered first time – finished 2nd of ten
Over the Creek this year
1st Run 8th of 10 – 3rd last
2nd Run pulled up of 11
3rd Run – Visored for first time ..! ???
Could he finish 2nd tomorrow , head to the Eider in 2 weeks time and then sneak in at the bottom of the nat weights ?? could it be another pipey special – remember this has been his dark horse for the nat all season …..
#96
February 11th, 2010 13:39
Good work Silver Birch.
Will watch with interest.
#97
February 11th, 2010 13:41
Again another a good shout!
#98
February 11th, 2010 13:44
Silver Birch that’s very interesting but based on last year he needs to go up 7lbs so 2nd might not be enough.
#99
February 11th, 2010 13:52
Stayer ..agreed – its very much touch and go . Also he could completely blow out tomorrow . Just a little bit of info i thought was interesting . Ill watch the race with a curious interest tomorrow but ur right .Its either a win or a very close second to have any chance of getting in
#100
February 11th, 2010 14:13
I’m ignoring Tricky Trickster for the National, but having an ew on him for the Gold Cup; quite often get a good priced staying on type for third [if he runs, that is]. Confused about My Will; I very much got the idea after last year that he just wasn’t suited to the race, and I’m not sure that Ruby would be desperate to ride him again. Only the impression that I got, however, could be wrong. Not sure about Gone to Lunch; was really sweet on him at the start of the season, but I do wonder if a lot of his problems are in his head?
#101
February 11th, 2010 14:24
I would agree with those points Maureen. I’m sure Ruby said that the horse made a series of mistakes on the way round and that he wasn’t a natural over the fences. I imagine Ruby will be looking for an alternative opportunity this year.
#102
February 11th, 2010 15:03
Ewok
I agree – One Cool Cookie is one of my lively outsiders at a big price
He’ll love the (likely) ground – all his meaningful wins have come on good and good to soft
He was trying to give weight to Snowy Morning & Black Apalachi in the Bobbyjo and wasn’t disgraced – if the handicapper plays fair he’ll be getting the weight this time around
A Grade 1 winner
He’s the best bred horse (apart from Tricky Trickster possibly) in the entries
Not only Old Vic but on the dam side Montelimar (dual National-winning sire), Le Bavard (in Numbersixvalverde) and Vulgan (the daddy of influences – more influential over the years than Busted)
On the downside though:
Although he has won left-handed and come 3rd at Leopardstown to Mister Top Notch in a Grade 1 (jumping right) he has not been left-handed for over 20 starts
He has never won a handicap and has not come through the handicapping ranks like all the previous 19 National winners (at least)
But triple figures more than compensates for those negatives
For me definitely the classiest animal rated 145 or below
Headgear not a problem – COD, BA and VV all wear headgear – some Old Vics seem to be better for it
#103
February 11th, 2010 15:57
What about Vic Venturi?
Does anyone give him a squeak?
#104
February 11th, 2010 16:22
Not with 11_05 or upwards he is likely to get.
As with all Becher winners, one to watch in future years – possibly in two years.
Only problem of course is that he will be 12 by then, but that didnt stop Amberleigh House I guess.
#105
February 11th, 2010 18:39
Not great news for any Siegemaster fans (final line):
Dessie Hughes is anticipating a bold show from Siegemaster in the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park on Saturday.
The nine-year-old has yet to finish out of the money in four starts this season, running a fine race to finish third in last month’s Thyestes Chase under a big weight.
He holds an entry in Newbury’s Aon Chase on the same day, but is set to stay at home and avoid a clash with the mighty Denman.
“He’s going to head to Gowran Park all being well and he seems in good form,” said Hughes.
“He ran well in the Thyestes to finish third and the form looks good with the winner (Whinstone Boy) coming out and winning again.
“Our horse goes in any ground and although there are one or two rated higher than him on Saturday, I don’t think he’s badly handicapped and he should run well.
“Long-term he will probably end up in the Irish National.”
#106
February 11th, 2010 21:38
Just have to come back on Gone To Lunch as I think most posters are seriously underestimating this real class horse. Any look at his profile now and he just rings out a possible GN winner and has real class.From his form it also looks like the further the distance the better he will be – and he will hang in there when the going gets tougth – no speed I can hear some say? – well his TS is 154 (spot on). His trainer should be awarded a medal for getting him spot on (and that does mean not winning races!!).
So here are some facts for all to ponder: Looks very much like a GN winners profile to me.
OR 145 (possible GN race day weight 10.08 if Mon Mone top on OR 161- 11.10). Perfect
PPR 159 – pefect
OR/RPR + 14 – perfect
Won 3/13 chase. Strike rate 55%. Spot on.
Won C1 Nov Chase worth 19K. Good
2nd this season – good (yes I know it was in April but it counts for stats!!)
Age 10 – perfect (and not over raced)
Won chase at 25f – good (2nd over 33f)
But look at this:
2nd 2009 Scottish National on 11.10
5th 2009 Hennessy Gold Cup on 10.03 (the only time GTL has run in a chase with less than 11.00!!)- this is a key fact that is overlooked by many.
April 2009
2nd in Nov G1 on 11.10 beaten 1.3/4 L by Rare Bob now OR155
beats
Joncol by hd now OR 164!!
beats
Cooldene by 18L+hd now Or163!!
Now thats class!
Now this must rate one of the best performances of the GN possible runners other than DA and NM.
And
2008 2nd in C1/G1 57K Nov Hurdle at Aintree beaten 1/4L.
Dosage
DI 0.76
CD 0.40
Speed 5
Stamina 8
Parfect so more stamina than speed but still got plenty of speed.
His record in spring:
May 2007 2nd in Md H
June 2007 1st in Nov H
March 14th 2008 5th in C1/G1 Nov H at Cheltenham
April 2008 2nd in C1/G1 Nov H at Aintree
March 11th 2009 PU C1/G1 RSA Ch at Cheltenham
April 2009 2nd in Scots Nat C1/G3 over 33f at Ayr.
April 2009 2nd in G1 Nov Chas at Punt
Form from March to June
2152P22
Form from April to June
21222
And only once in the Hennessy Gold on less than 11.00.
Conclusion:
Well i thnk the case for GTL is obvious. Just think what he may do on 10.08 or so over 4.1/2 miles with his profile. If he can beat Joncol (now OR164)and Cooldene (now OR163) when carrying 11.10 less than a year ago and come 2nd in the Scots Nat on 11.10 then anything is possible in the GN on around 10.08!!!
Anyone agree?
#107
February 11th, 2010 22:28
Systemsman
I have been a big fan of Gone to Lunch for a while and fired the money at him for Welsh National and Hennessy. Yes, Welsh National may have been too heavy and, yes, Hennessy may have been too short for him.
However, both his last two runs have been diabolical. At the weekend when he got detached I was hoping he would stay on again at the finish at least make it to 4th or 5th. He did not. The gap stayed the same between him and the pack, and it’s not like the going was that testing.
Obviously the other main problem is that he is likely to be sent to Scottish National rather than Aintree due to the jumping issues. The trainer may reconsider this due to the anticipated GN rating and it will be interesting if he does.
I just can’t back him at the moment. However, as I mentioned, I am a fan of this horse and if he returns to form in next race, and if the trainer’s intentions change then I could be persuaded!
He is basically L’Aventure, but with a lot more quality!
#108
February 11th, 2010 22:54
Systems, Systems, Systems,
Listen, Gone To Lunch’s case and stats is obvious since the Hennessy. Thats why I have him in my top 5. Thats why I have several bets on him @ 40 odd and why I still backed him at 100/1 when you were having doubts about his price profile. Remember your price profile of Jan.22.
All I am saying is I would like to see a little bit of form, a little sparkle of life, which I expected last Saturday. I still would trade the 3LBS for better form. Blimey he carried 11.10 over 33f. so I dont think 3Lbs(10.08-10.05) will make a hugh difference. If he keeps running the way he has been, then he won’t win the GN even on 10.00.
He still has time but in my book he really needs a hugh performance in the blue sq. or his next prep run.
#109
February 11th, 2010 23:06
You don’t need to post such a message on GTL to convince yourself Systems! Clearly that seems what you are trying to do. Sure he has a chance if he shows some sort of form soon but no sane person could be backing him now. He is more likely to be retired soon that win the National!
#110
February 11th, 2010 23:37
Been looking into the dosage angle of the race and came up with three groups of runners.
The first group have DI ranging from 0.18 to 0.71 & CD ranging from -1.00 to 0.00 & have points in all five categories that make up the dosage (Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid & Professional )
1.Arbor Supreme
2. Dooney Gate
3. Dream Alliance
4. Irish Invader
5. Lorum Leader
6. Niche Market
7. Nozic
8. Offshore Account
9. Razor Royale
10. Trick Trickster
11. Whinstone Boy
The second group also has the same range in DI & CD except that not all categories score points.
1. Abbeybraney
2. Anothercoppercoast
3. Ballyfitz
4. Casey Jones
5. Coe
6. Comply Or Die
7. Duers
8. Ellerslie George
9. Iris De Balme
10. Kilbeggan Blade
11. Kornati Kid
12. Lennon
13. Mr Pointment
14. Offaly
15. Oodachee
16. Our Vic
17. Silver Birch
18. State Of Play
19. The Package
20. War Of Attrition
The third group has CD ranging from 0.18 to 1.20 & CF ranging from -1.00 to 0.30 & not covered by list A or B.
1. Alberas Run
2. Ballytrim
3. Beroni
4. Black Apalachi
5. Can’t Buy Time
6. Cane Brake
7. Chelsea Harbour
8. Cloudy Lane
9. Cossack Dancer
10. Flintoff
11. Follow The Plan
12. Gone To Lunch
13. Kings Advocate
14. Maljimar
15. Old Benny
16. One Cool Cookie
17. Over The Creek
18. Parsons Pistol
19. Piraya
20. Possol
21. Priests Leap
22. Roulez Cool
23. Royal Rosa
24. Snowy Morning
25. Vic Venturi
26. Wee Robbie.
Of course this is from dosage alone, the are other trends to apply.
#111
February 11th, 2010 23:43
Pablo/anyone shed any light on the WAO/One Cool Cookie entrants rumours..surely if both weighted well in GN then owners/trainers could SURELY enter both.
What have they only room for 1 in the trailer ..lol.
Someone enlighten me on the likelihood on this one..ta
#112
February 12th, 2010 00:27
Hi Guys….I’m back for another year….good to see all the regular names still here, i decided to leave it late this year after getting my fingers burnt with Rambo and also taking 33/1 on Mon Mome when sp was 100′s
i did far too many stats and research December to February 2009 so much so i was dreaming about the bloody rpr’s, and i looked into things so deeply i feel i talked myself out of many things i should have considered.
so i feel refreshed now for the long haul till post time, so this w/end i shall dust off the big black book and look at my notes, and hopefully be able to pin point possible winners.:-)
#113
February 12th, 2010 01:52
whitearab says: re- GTL
February 11, 2010 at 11:06 PM
“He is more likely to be retired soon that win the National!”
whitearab, thats a cracker, that made me laugh. Some of us are sweating will GTL go to Aintree or Ayr and you reckon he might be retired.
#114
February 12th, 2010 09:21
Systemsman,
I agree with all your points regarding GTL and the stats and that’s why at the start of the season he was very high on my shortlist.
However, it’s not all about stats. Ability, wellbeing and form are at least as important and at the moment I do have concerns about GTL’s wellbeing and form. As I said before (and I agree with what Speedyseagull says) his last 2 runs have been lamentable. I think one or two of you have blinkers on if you think Scott has played a blinder to get the horse’s weight down. He hasn’t. The horse has just run like a drain the last two times. He never went a yard in the Welsh National and even allowing for the fact that he didn’t like the ground that was a desparate run. Saturday wasn’t much better either.
I see several problems here. GTL doesn’t have much tactical speed and his other runs back this point up. He does get outpaced/hit flat-spots in races before his stamina kicks in and he stays on at the end. I have a slight worry that things might happen a bit too fast for him in the National and if he gets outpaced could be left with too much to do.
Perhaps more concerning is the manner of his last two runs. He looks like a horse that doesn’t seem to be enjoying himself at the moment. A break might help, headgear might help, I don’t know but I really can’t part with my cash on the back of his last two runs.
I really like this horse for the race but his last two runs have given me big doubts. Have I been too harsh in my assessment of him? I want someone to convince me otherwise because I like him!! And stats won’t convince me because I know he has a great profile for the race.
#115
February 12th, 2010 09:25
Right, there’s been a lot of talk lately, but not much ‘colour nailing to the mast’ being done!
Is it time for a quick pre-weights top 6 table?
if so;
6pts – Hello Bud
5pts – Dream Alliance
4pts – Niche Market
3pts – Gone to Lunch
2pts – One Cool Cookie
1pt – Character Building
#116
February 12th, 2010 10:06
Keep your hair on Daniel!
A list now and one next week is probably a good idea as we can see if the racing over the next 48 hours and the weights change anything.
I’ve backed Iris De Balme and WOA so they have to be on my list. Niche Market is my idea of the likliest winner at the moment.
6 – Niche Market
5 – WOA
4 – Iris De Balme
3 – Dream Alliance
2 – GTL
1 – Character Building
I’ve added mine to yours to get:
Niche Market – 10
Dream Alliance – 8
Hello Bud – 6
War Of Attrition – 5
Gone To Lunch – 5
Iris De Balme – 4
One Cool Cookie – 2
Character Building – 2
#117
February 12th, 2010 10:11
6pts – Niche Market
5pts – Snowy Morning
4pts – One Cool Cookie
3pts – Comply Or Die
2pts – Cane Brake
1pt – Royal County Star
#118
February 12th, 2010 10:13
Niche Market – 16
Dream Alliance – 8
Hello Bud – 6
One Cool Cookie – 6
Snowy Morning – 5
War Of Attrition – 5
Gone To Lunch – 5
Iris De Balme – 4
Comply Or Die – 3
Cane Brake – 2
Character Building – 2
Royal County Star – 1
Oh well Niche Market is the new Rambo…
#119
February 12th, 2010 10:55
Hi Guys Top 6 Tipsters Table is for our full consideration after weights issued..really feel distracting to pre weights version 4 days before weights come out is pointless..Phase 3 after Chelts and Final Phase at April 5 confirmation stage.
Pablo any idea thought on the idea that WAO or One Cool Cookie will be sent rather than both? Surely can’t hold water if both weighted well..
#120
February 12th, 2010 10:59
Personally I think it would be a useful reference point, as The Stayer says, to see how much weights day changes things, if only for future reference for those considering eve of weights day bets!
#121
February 12th, 2010 10:59
1.Niche Market
2. Dream Alliance
3. Royal County Star
4. Hello Bud
5. My Will
6. Maljimar
For goodness sake Mr Buckler please please dont do anything stupid with Niche Market over the weekend .. please dont do a Joe Lively !
#122
February 12th, 2010 11:15
Niche Market and TT have been declared for the AON Chase tomorrow, along with Ollie Magern, Air Force One, Wee Robbie and Denman. Hopefully Niche Market will plod round in 4th or 5th and not get within 20l of The Tank. I think it’s very dangerous to be honest.
OTC runs at Kempton in the 3m Chase today. If he wins and gets put up 6lbs+ he will go into my top 6 for sure.
#123
February 12th, 2010 11:18
Me too Stayer – this year’s dark horse
#124
February 12th, 2010 11:25
He’s been my dark horse too many times now. I’m waiting till i know he’s going to run, I think. Why is Big Fella Thanks running today? Surely he doesn’t need to win to get into the race?
#125
February 12th, 2010 11:43
i think this is an accident waiting to happen tomorrow for Niche Market !!
#126
February 12th, 2010 11:44
and as you say Maureen what on earth will be the tactics on big fella thanks today . surely its 50/50 that he wins and if he does his OR’s going to go up as well
#127
February 12th, 2010 11:46
Lets hope the Creek follows in CODS footsteps. There are a lot of horses in that race today who are doubtful stayers in my opinion . He needs a win or a half a length beaten second surely …
#128
February 12th, 2010 11:48
OTC really needs to win today to get into the National but if he does win today I would expect his National odds (best price 80/1) to be slashed. That being the case i’ve done a cheeky double 20/1 for today and 80/1 for the National with SportingBet. Pays out a massive £1,700 for a £1 bet. I expect that it’s a quid down the drain but if he wins today……
#129
February 12th, 2010 11:51
I’m blaming it on the weather,
have you seen the USA its like that film again, they’re calling it snowmeggedan!
BFT had 6 preps last yr, only 1 so far this yr, bit of a difference, panic has set in, but is it best to get some mileage incase britain freezes again?
NM running is risky and uneccessary, as discussed earlier scenarios with Denman all possible, Buckler must have snow on the brain!
#130
February 12th, 2010 12:01
6 pts – State of Play
5 pts – Hello Bud
4 pts – Beat the Boys
3 pts – Character Building
2 pts – Gone to Lunch
1 pt – Arbor Supreme
Updating for myself and Silver Birch
Niche Market – 22
Hello Bud – 14
Dream Alliance – 13
Gone To Lunch – 7
State of Play – 6
One Cool Cookie – 6
Snowy Morning – 5
War Of Attrition – 5
Character Building – 5
Royal County Star – 5
Beat the Boys – 4
Iris De Balme – 4
Comply Or Die – 3
Cane Brake – 2
My Will – 2
Arbor Supreme – 1
Maljimar – 1
#131
February 12th, 2010 12:07
when where OTC running?
I’m too busy over next few days unfortunately, panic setting in here as can only review my plan for weights day on weights day! will try and read blog, keep things ticking over, watch race on saturday I hope… until then yikes! writing this has made me seriously worry I’m underprepared, oh well
Maureen- what are your top6 currently, or top10?
we have similar dilemas such as not wanting to back Nicholls horses, BFT issues, SOP, Maljimar. (whinstone)etc etc etc. Other than the ground dependants I don’t think I can seperate the chasing pack.
#132
February 12th, 2010 12:15
OTC goes in the 4:20 at Kempton today.
#133
February 12th, 2010 12:19
Just a word of warning to The Stayer and anyone else thinking of doing the same bet. The double for today and the National will probably be seen as a related bet by most bookmakers and they may settle it as 2 singles. I seem to remember we went over this last year at some point.
#134
February 12th, 2010 12:21
The Stayer says:
February 12, 2010 at 11:48 AM
OTC really needs to win today to get into the National but if he does win today I would expect his National odds (best price 80/1) to be slashed. That being the case i’ve done a cheeky double 20/1 for today and 80/1 for the National with SportingBet. Pays out a massive £1,700 for a £1 bet. I expect that it’s a quid down the drain but if he wins today……
Surprised the bookie took that bet as they normally won’t do a double on one horse winning two different races without making it a ‘special bet’ ie. slashing the odds.
Will be watching OTC closely today but not expecting him to win as he seems badly handicapped against some decent sorts, Polyfast, rimsky and Snakebite all dangerous opposition receiving plenty of weight.
#135
February 12th, 2010 12:24
Desert Orchid,
Yes, Bet365 don’t allow you to place the bet in the first place but SportingBet do so presumably they will pay it out as a double and not two singles?
#136
February 12th, 2010 12:32
The Stayer, I fear it will be 2 singles. Check the rules for related bets on the site:
10.3 Multiple bets that combine selections within different events where the outcome of one affects or is affected by the other.
For example, two Horse Racing selections may be:
Septimus to win the Dante Stakes and
Septimus to win the Epsom Derby.
As the odds of Septimus to win the Epsom Derby depends on whether he wins the Dante Stakes (a recognised Derby trial), the odds for Septimus to win the Epsom Derby at the time the bet was accepted cannot be used to calculate the double odds. A special price to win both races may be quoted instead.
#137
February 12th, 2010 12:35
No major players declared for the Red Mills Chase at the weekend – I think Snowy Morning and/or One Cool Cookie were entered at one stage, but the ones that remain will not be winning at Aintree come April.
#138
February 12th, 2010 12:39
Desert Orchid,
I was just coming back here after looking it up on the SportingBet site, as I just found the piece you posted!
Thanks to yourself and Brody for clarifying that. May all be academic anyway as OTC probably won’t win today but it’s worth remembering for the future.
#139
February 12th, 2010 12:41
whitearab: The whole point of this blog is to inform and learn from each other and I have learnt a lot of new interesting facts this year. Ofcourse we need to convince ourselves first that a certain horse will win otherwise there would be no point in highlighting it! Gone To Lunch was one my first two bets made before the new year and has come out in the top six or so on every piece of research I have posted. But it was important that people knew at one point his price went out to 150/1 and his price profile was shot to pieces with so many on this site adding that he was heading for the Sots Nat.
So what changed:
I have no doubt many people knew but many new to this site would not so this is why GTL had a new post from me:
OR changed to 145 this week – which will give him a perfect weight.
Price profile had completly turned around from 150/1 to 44/1 today indecating that there is market confidence he will run in the GN – I for one think there is now more chance he will run than not run.
Taking this into account meant for me GTL was very much one to keep right at the top of the list. So whitearab I could have kept this to myself but I felt it was worth sharing along with the other stats.
On another point all GN winners have some very bad runs in their GN winning year so I am not put off by his last two runs. I am not suggesting anyone has just GTL as thier one bet but as part of a “portfolio of six against the field” he is a “must have”! (despite the risk of a no run).
#140
February 12th, 2010 12:42
showlad, we have a runaway train, I’m boarding before you blow the whistle again.
6-Dream Alliance
5-Snowy Morning
4-Trabolgan
3-Parsons Legacy
2-Gone To Lunch
1-Silver Birch
Niche Market – 22
Dream Alliance – 19
Hello Bud – 14
Snowy Morning – 10
Gone To Lunch – 9
State of Play – 6
One Cool Cookie – 6
War Of Attrition – 5
Character Building – 5
Royal County Star – 5
Trabolgan – 4
Beat the Boys – 4
Iris De Balme – 4
Parsons Legacy – 3
Comply Or Die – 3
Cane Brake – 2
My Will – 2
Arbor Supreme – 1
Maljimar – 1
Silver Birch – 1
#141
February 12th, 2010 12:43
“On another point all GN winners have some very bad runs in their GN winning year so I am not put off by his last two runs. I am not suggesting anyone has just GTL as thier one bet but as part of a “portfolio of six against the field” he is a “must have”! (despite the risk of a no run).”
Agreed – in a year with no stand out horse, I am pleased to have GTL in my 6 (although that will soon become more than 6 I fear!)
#142
February 12th, 2010 12:47
Not a problem The Stayer. I hope Over The Creek does win today though as he was my first bet this year and have backed and traded him back a couple more times on Betfair. I have €4 left on him to win over €2500, so would love to get a run out of him on the big day!! Fingers crossed!!
#143
February 12th, 2010 12:48
Yes it will be interesting to compare and contrast pre and post weight scores.
6 pts – Gone To Lunch
5 pts – Dream alliance
4 pts – Niche Market
3 pts – Hello Bud
2 pts – Arbor Supreme
now its gets really hard (really not sure yet but.. and may change my mind later)
1 pt – Royal County Star
Update:
Niche Market – 26
Dream Alliance – 18
Hello Bud – 17
Gone To Lunch – 13
State of Play – 6
One Cool Cookie – 6
Royal County Star – 6
Snowy Morning – 5
War Of Attrition – 5
Character Building – 5
Beat the Boys – 4
Iris De Balme – 4
Arbor Supreme – 3
Comply Or Die – 3
Cane Brake – 2
My Will – 2
Maljimar – 1
#144
February 12th, 2010 12:53
Try again – correct score after miinnehoma.
6 pts – Gone To Lunch
5 pts – Dream alliance
4 pts – Niche Market
3 pts – Hello Bud
2 pts – Arbor Supreme
now its gets really hard (really not sure yet but.. and may change my mind later)
1 pt – Royal County Star
Niche Market – 26
Dream Alliance – 24
Hello Bud – 17
Gone To Lunch – 15
Snowy Morning – 10
State of Play – 6
One Cool Cookie – 6
Royal County Star – 6
War Of Attrition – 5
Character Building – 5
Trabolgan – 4
Beat the Boys – 4
Iris De Balme – 4
Parsons Legacy – 3
Comply Or Die – 3
Arbor Supreme – 3
Cane Brake – 2
My Will – 2
Maljimar – 1
Silver Birch – 1
#145
February 12th, 2010 13:14
6 pts – Hello Bud
5 pts – Iris de Balme
4 pts – One Cool Cookie
3 pts – Niche Market
2 pts – Dream Alliance
1 pt – Maljimar
Niche Market – 29
Dream Alliance – 26
Hello Bud – 23
Gone To Lunch – 15
One Cool Cookie – 10
Snowy Morning – 10
Iris De Balme – 9
State of Play – 6
Royal County Star – 6
War Of Attrition – 5
Character Building – 5
Trabolgan – 4
Beat the Boys – 4
Parsons Legacy – 3
Comply Or Die – 3
Arbor Supreme – 3
Cane Brake – 2
Maljimar – 2
My Will – 2
Silver Birch – 1
#146
February 12th, 2010 13:45
Interesting that holders of all three major Nationals (bar GN) are top 3 in the list, plus the two that got a Hennessy top 5.
How many winners have run in key races the same season (inc previous Irish) as their GN win?
Mr Frisk – 3rd Hennessy
Seagram – 9th Hennessy
Party Politics – 2nd Hennessy, 2nd Welsh
Miinnehoma – INJURED
Royal Athlete – INJURED
Rough Quest – 2nd Hennessy
Lord Gyllene – NOVICE
Earth Summit – 1st Welsh
Bobbyjo – 1st Irish
Papillon – 10th Irish
Red Marauder – Fell GN, 10th Irish, 5th Hennessy
Bindaree – 5th Hennessy, 3rd Welsh
Monty’s Pass – 2nd Topham
Amberleigh House – 3rd GN, 2nd Becher
Hedgehunter – Fell GN
Numbersixvalverde – 1st Irish
Silver Birch – Fell GN
Comply Or Die – INJURED
Mon Mome – 9th Scottish, 8th Welsh
11/19 have run in one of the other top Nationals or the Hennessy in the same year
But only 2/7
However if you add in previous year’s Aintree events (Topham, GN, Becher) then the figure rises to 15/19
Exceptions were either injured the previous April or Lord Gyllene (Novice) – 18/19 (exception = Lord Gyllene)
From our list:
Niche Market – 29 – Irish, Hennessy
Dream Alliance – 26 – Welsh
Hello Bud – 23 – Scottish, Becher, Welsh
Gone To Lunch – 15 – Scottish, Hennessy, Welsh
One Cool Cookie – 10 – Irish
Snowy Morning – 10 – GN, Hennessy
Iris De Balme – 9 – INJURED
State of Play – 6 – GN, Hennessy
Royal County Star – 6 – Irish
War Of Attrition – 5 – Hennessy
Character Building – 5
Trabolgan – 4 – INJURED
Beat the Boys – 4
Parsons Legacy – 3 – GN
Comply Or Die – 3 – GN
Arbor Supreme – 3 – Irish
Cane Brake – 2 – INJURED
Maljimar – 2
My Will – 2 – GN, Hennessy
Silver Birch – 1 – GN
Character Building, Beat The Boys, Maljimar have no Aintree National fences, big National or Hennessy runs in their preparation
#147
February 12th, 2010 13:51
Lord Gyllene did run in the Midlands National (as did Mon Mome)
#148
February 12th, 2010 13:53
I think this reinforces the merit of looking at key races – they have been key in the preparation of winning horses for years, plus, by and large, the horses have at one point or other performed with credit in them too
#149
February 12th, 2010 13:58
Winners to have put in a key race performance in winning year = 9/19
But only 1/5
Top 4 in our list have put in a key race performance in past 12 months
Something’s got to give
#150
February 12th, 2010 13:59
I always enjoy your posts Systemsman and I agree on the point on this site – and I love it. But I could see you were trying to convince yourself and possibly others on GTl. For the record, I have a small ante post win bet on him myself but he is showing signs of mojor decline and I could not back him again until he shows some sign of a revival. Even a small sign would be good!
#151
February 12th, 2010 14:07
“Winners to have put in a key race performance in winning year = 9/19
But only 1/5
Top 4 in our list have put in a key race performance in past 12 months
Something’s got to give”
Cracking work Pablo.
What I will say though, is that it doesnt show you cant have a tough race at some point in the same season and still win the National.
Mon Mome won a C1 chase at Cheltenham over 27f in the same season, and COD of course won over 4 miles at Newcastle in the Eider just 6 weeks before.
#152
February 12th, 2010 15:11
“whitearab says:
But I could see you were trying to convince yourself and possibly others on GTl.”
Ofcourse i was trying to convince myself and others now that his OR is 145 and he was gaining support again that he was worth a bet again (the nature of any research is that sometimes only when you put pen to paper can you see the result clearly for the first time and I am clear that GTL is a top 3 pick). I did ask for comment and I have found that is the best way to use this site to get help from people that know a lot more than me.
But I do agree “even a small sign would be good!” would be nice but not essential after his 5th in the Hennessy Gold Cup and his great run last April in Ireland,.
#153
February 12th, 2010 16:30
Showlad, you’re right all this listing can be distracting, rather be looking in depth at some of the horses, RPR’s etc. But, I will post a pre weights, in two lists, looking at two completely differing scenarios. I’m doing this to show how weights are important, in my thinking anyway, and *if weight stats prevail* In both lists I’m looking at what the stats suggest to me as the most likely winner and not say three or four that I think will win and two or three that I think can place.
The first is a scenario that top weight is OR161,11-10/ bottom weight is OR137, 10-0; the second scenario is top weight at 164,
11-10, bottom weight OR140,10-0.
List A
Trabolgan
Gone To Lunch
Arbor Supreme
Erics Charm
Parsons Legacy
One Cool Cookie
List B
Dream Alliance
Gone To Lunch
Snowy Morning
Arbor Supreme
Erics Charm
Possol
#154
February 12th, 2010 16:36
Anybody see Big Fella Thanks unseat Ruby today?
#155
February 12th, 2010 16:39
No, but I was listening to it; doesn’t sound as if his jumping was too good, but the race was a bit sharp for him. He was certainly being ridden to win it so I’m not sure what their plan is/was. They did say he was a bit flat footed in the National last year as well.
#156
February 12th, 2010 16:41
Agreed Crips. Top 6 Tipsters League is at key points at considered and crucial points. Why get all to waste time to post lists up only to amend when one of your Top 6 gets a bad hand from Phil? Also fill site up with tables.. Much rather be studying stats.
As you say though, very helpful for hotties (as we had been doing – HELLO lol) was no need for new list. So here goes…
A List Hotties
Hello Bud
Niche Market
Dream Alliance
Snowy Morning
B List Hotties to watch
Arbor Supreme
One Cool Cookie
Trabolgan
Cane Brake
Eric’s Charm
Trust Fund
Royal County Star
Iris DeBaqlme
Beat the Boys
#157
February 12th, 2010 16:44
yes daniel i did.was very unlucky and if you fancy him as i do (and backed) i personaly dont think there was anything to worry about.he did not actually make a mistake but just seem to buckle, but seemed fine afterwards.was running very well and would probually finished second,good work out me thinks.
#158
February 12th, 2010 16:44
Well obviously we will have to agree to disagree – some find it useful, others dont.
If you dont, just ignore it!
#159
February 12th, 2010 16:45
Those were my general hotties.
Now from me those crucial to getting decent weight eg could go either way and could make or break run for horse:
Dream Alliance
Trabolgan
Snowy Morning
Comply or Die
Notre Pere
War of Attrition
#160
February 12th, 2010 16:49
btw cannot wait to see Eric’s left handed attempt at Haydock – if he fairs even reasonably well – you will see the quckest carshing of odds on betfair lol.
Don’t you see Snowy getting decent weight this time round in either scenario Crisp?
#161
February 12th, 2010 16:52
I will only back Snowy (with small stakes in any event) if he’s got something around 10_12 and it looks as thought the ground will be good/borderline good/soft.
His 3rd in the GN was on good ground and he has suggested in a few of his runs (to me) as though stamina isn’t his forte.
Personally, I think he’ll need his perfect conditions to be in the mix.
He is one of my ‘wait till weights day’ bets at the minute, as with Dream Alliance.
#162
February 12th, 2010 16:59
Over the Creek can now be scrubbed from any lists. I’m gonna wait until Tuesday to put up my list.
#163
February 12th, 2010 17:04
Over The Creek was a major disappointment so he is certainly off my list of possibles
Terrible race, awful sandpit of a track – how can they have Grade 1s there when half the race is on sand? (Slightly over the top but it really has gone downhill that place)
Reminds me why I never bet in races below Class 2
#164
February 12th, 2010 17:06
I’m sort of siding with the argument that Snowy Morning might not get such a good deal, unjust but there you are. I think he is a wolf in sheeps clothing and I think Mr Smith does as well and wakes up sweating in the night after dreaming of SM off OR147, with Walsh aboard, skipping easily away and winning the GN by 10 lengths!
Looking today at weight carrying efforts, those that have carried 10lbs or more than bottom weight to victory since 1990 have had RPR>OR 11, or more.
#165
February 12th, 2010 17:13
Good point Crisp and worth bearing in mind for Tuesday
#166
February 12th, 2010 18:03
Topped up on GTL today – I think its worth the risk at 40/1 in the high street.
Will be looking hard after Tuesday at all those with good trends on OR141 to OR148 who are likely to carry 10.04 to 10.12 on GN race day.
Will certainly take account of Crips excellent info (thanks).
#167
February 12th, 2010 18:22
Crisp – to add your point
Those that carried 10 lb or more above bottom weight and placed since 1991 had one or more of the following:
1) Top 5 finish in that season’s Gold Cup – i.e. bang in form in the blue riband
2) A top 5 Hennessy place that season – i.e. good form in the best quality key race that year
3) Had top 4 place in GN the season before – i.e. handle the track well
4) Had RPR-OR on the day of 10 or more – i.e. potentially well-in on best form
Year; Place; Horse; Comments
1991; 2; Garrison Savannah; Won Gold Cup same season
1992; 4; Docklands Express; Gold Cup top 5 same season
1995; 4; Dubacilla; Gold Cup top 5 same season
1998; 2; Suny Bay; Placed in GN year before
2000; 1; Papillon; RPR – OR > = 10
2000; 3; Niki Dee; RPR – OR > = 10
2001; 1; Red Marauder; Hennessy top 5 same season
2001; 4; Papillon; Won GN year before
2002; 2; What’s Up Boys; Won Hennessy same season
2002; 4; Kingsmark; RPR – OR > = 10
2004; 1; Amberleigh House; Placed in GN year before
2004; 4; Monty’s Pass; Won GN year before
2005; 1; Hedgehunter; RPR – OR > = 10
2005; 2; Royal Auclair; Gold Cup top 5 same season
2006; 2; Hedgehunter; Won GN year before
2008; 4; Slim Pickings; Placed in GN year before
2009; 2; Comply Or Die; Won GN year before
2009; 3; My Will; Gold Cup top 5 same season
2009; 4; State Of Play; RPR – OR > = 10
#168
February 12th, 2010 18:55
Don’t have OR for 1990 but Brown Windsor came 4th in GN that year and was carrying 10’10 (10 lb above bottom weight) – he came 2nd in the Hennessy that season beaten 1/4 l giving the winner 15 lb
So those findings do go back to 1990
#169
February 12th, 2010 19:27
Hi Pablo, for Brown Windsor OR in 1990 it was 153
#170
February 12th, 2010 19:33
Brown Windsor also won the previous season’s whitbread.
The henessy also produced that year, Mr Frisk (winner), and Durham Edition (second ).
#171
February 12th, 2010 20:32
Neil
Thanks for ORs
1989 Hennessy form was certainly upheld in 1990 GN – and the Hennessy only had 8 horses that year – mind you both races were on GF which doesn’t seem to happen these days
Strange that the RP doesn’t have GN ORs for 1990
Where did you get them from?
#172
February 12th, 2010 22:15
From the booklet which tells you how to find the grand national winner. A raceform publication from 1993/4. As samples they have details of the 1990, 1991 & 1992 results an ante post example of the 1990 &1992 races and how they past the post in ‘The race that never was’.
#173
February 13th, 2010 01:38
Prep runs of last 19 winners by early Feb. – before Blue Sq. Gold Cup.
MM–2182—-4
COD-0P2—–3
SB–382—–3
N6–84BD44–5
HH–92406—5
AH–342P—-4
MP–23P6313-7-may/oct.
BIN-75336—5
RM–14552—5
PAP-875—–3
BJ–5805—-4
ES–5516—-4
LG–23111—5
RQ–F22F—-4
RA–36——2
Min———0
PP–225—–3
SEA-32921—5
MF–41335—5
13/19 Had a 1st./2nd. at this stage.
The rascals were peaking 2 early.
#174
February 13th, 2010 07:47
Good grief, last 14 winners had run at least three times by then. There can’t be more than a couple of dozen that have done that this year, can there?
#175
February 13th, 2010 07:52
Just done a count, and it is 69 and rising. A lot more than I was expecting. I suppose my mindset had been skewed by the high profile horses that have been barely seen.
#176
February 13th, 2010 11:03
Me6 “Just done a count, and it is 69 and rising.”
But how many of the 69 are now rated between OR141 and OR148? (where we are most likely to find the winner) – to be safe I guess we could stretch it to OR140 to OR150. Any ideas?
#177
February 13th, 2010 12:29
Is there a possibility of Niche Market & Tricky Trickster ruining their National chances today?
If for some reason they get within x lengths of The Tank will the handicapper raise them to an un-winnable OR?
#178
February 13th, 2010 13:11
I feel that PN thinks that Tricky Trickster could be a seriously good horse [he's got an entry in the Gold Cup] and I wonder if he might not run him in the National if that is true. Just a theory, but someone who told me to back Go Native for the Champion Hurdle when he was 33/1 [I didn't get round to placing the bet] also recommended an ew on Tricky Trickster for the Gold Cup [which I did].
#179
February 13th, 2010 13:32
Niche Market isn’t currently on my top 6 list but is one I’m wary about. He may well ruin his chances today but, unless he finishes within 10 lengths 2nd of Denman, I can’t see his rating changing that much
#180
February 13th, 2010 14:42
My word!
#181
February 13th, 2010 14:54
Had Tricky at 14/1 today. What happened to Denman? Did he fall???
#182
February 13th, 2010 14:56
Coral go 7/1 fav for TT!
Surely TT has to run off >11’01 in the National after that?
Niche Market may well have blown his chance too
#183
February 13th, 2010 14:56
U/R. Was leading and going OK (although not brilliantly) but then made an awful error, stayed on his feet but all momentum gone. At the very next fence, when lying 2nd, he didn’t take off at all and ploughed througb the fence, unseating McCoy.
#184
February 13th, 2010 14:58
Handicapper may react harshly to both. Niche Market was closing on Denman even before he made error and, as both TT and NM finished together, they may both go up a similar amount
#185
February 13th, 2010 15:00
Wow, I dont think anyone expected that!
I worry for NM and TT’s National weights after that, although predictably both have been shortened for the race.
#186
February 13th, 2010 15:00
What a shocker . I think both Niche Market and Tricky Trickster have just blown their national chances . Theres no way the handicappers goin to leave them alone after that . How incredibly risky was that and all our fears have come true . Dear oh Dear ..!
#187
February 13th, 2010 15:00
Well, at least now TT will be 7/1 antepost fave meaning others will be value.
Got bless Paul Nicholls and his 7 year olds in the national!!!
#188
February 13th, 2010 15:07
Quite a good outing for Niche Market and Tricky Trickster. If Denman had finished I don’t think Niche Market would have been to far away.
I don’t think they ruined their chances, I think Denman was running below par. McCoy might be top jockey, but it doesn’t mean he can get the best out of every horse. Felt the same when he rode Best Mate. Wouldn’t surprise me if Sam Thomas will be riding Denman in the Gold Cup.
#189
February 13th, 2010 15:10
P.S just to add Denman is Okay.
#190
February 13th, 2010 15:21
I suppose it all depends on what view he takes of Denman
If he thinks he’s run really poorly then he might make little change to the weights.
To put it into context Madison Du Berlais went up 10lb for thrashing Denman 23 lengths in this race last year
Neither Niche Market nor TT headed Denman this time until he had made a mistake
So maybe they might only go up a couple of pounds. Who knows?
#191
February 13th, 2010 15:21
Question.
Why were TT and NM running in that race when it likely compromises their chances in the National?
Puzzled.
#192
February 13th, 2010 15:41
Has the Aon chase or any of its other incarnations produced any GN winners or any noteable performers?!!!
#193
February 13th, 2010 15:41
Tricky as low as 7/1.
Niche as low as 12/1.
Will need big saddle bags for the lead.
#194
February 13th, 2010 15:50
all over crazy! and can’t back tony for the natinal after that!
Tony fans, he has to take some of the blame there, not the right man to ride Denman, my heart sank when I saw he was on board, even crazier to run NM then. Ruby looked sick, but toed the line with no mention of riding style being partially to blame. Typical easy option, the horse he can’t answer back! Be fair.
#195
February 13th, 2010 15:58
I had a go at rating the race, using the Racing Post facility.
First problem is how many lbs per length, 3m, Gd to Sft? Decided to use 0.8 (I’ve never done form ratings over fences, just on the Flat.)
Then decided that AF1 was unfit, gave him the master rating of 135, and clicked the ‘calculate’ button.
Came out with
152 TT
155 NM
135 AF1
128 OM
124 WR
At least it gives me an incentive to see what figures the RP produce this evening!
#196
February 13th, 2010 16:07
Well I hope Tricky and Niche’s team marvel away at today’s turn of events – as it will be short lived – THEY WILL BE HAMMERED BY PHIL NOW. Typical of Nicholls but REALLY REALLY don’t see ANY REASON in Niche Team in running him today – well I don’t think one of my favs will be on a winnable weight now – NO CHANCE!
#197
February 13th, 2010 16:23
I had my worries before the race and could not see the sense in running this 2 so close to the announcements of the National weights. By winning a Grade 2 they will have to be put up by default. The rating they both held before the AON gave them a great chance in National, surely now they have well and truly scuppered their favorable weights?
If Handicapper views Niche Market as closing in on Denman before his error it could well be a pretty hefty hike….
#198
February 13th, 2010 16:49
There’s been a lot of talk of One Cool Cookie on here at the moment and what the stables plans are for him. Well I’ve just looked C Swans 3 entries in the National – Offshore Account – rated 136, Oodachee – rated 135 and One Cool Cookie – rated 140.
Now if we are all in agreement that 136 is too low for Offshore Acoount to get into the race, then can we assume that One Cool Cookie will be the stables representative?
#199
February 13th, 2010 17:10
Does anyone have any opinions as to how they thought AFO was finishing the race? Cameras didn’t tend to pan back to see him. Thanks
#200
February 13th, 2010 17:29
The RP race report suggests that TT & NM hopes rest on the handicapper. They say AFO not the force of old. Kauto a good thing for the Gold Cup.
But they do say that the weights might remain unchanged for NM & TT. (Apart from Denman and Wee Robbie not much between the others in the race on OR.)
All fun and games and I’m glad that I haven’t had a proper bet yet!
#201
February 13th, 2010 17:31
Think it’s a case of keeping your nerve for the next month because the market reaction & at times overreaction might just send you mad!
#202
February 13th, 2010 17:46
You’ve just made me even more miserable, Ewok! I was going to post about British Chase ratings being about 6-8 lbs higher than Irish ones, (and Hdles ratings about 8-10 higher), but then I noticed that Offshore Account is entered in the Racing Post Chase, and he’s only got 135 for that. For the sake of consistency and saving face, I’d have thought that Smith will row along with that figure if it was designated by one of his fellow handicappers. That means that yet another of my strong fancies won’t make it to the start line!
#203
February 13th, 2010 18:30
If NM goes up for that then I think he has blown his GN chance as many on here predicted might happen (jsut why did they run him??) – he already looked poor on trends. But on the plus side he has shown he is a class act so nice to have him at anti-post on my side whatever happens (but wont bet any more on him if OR more than 150). Just think though if his OR does not go up (unlikely but what do I know about this sort of thing) – cant wait for the weights to come out now.
TT surely now aimed at the Gold Cup (was that not the plan all along? Run him this year for experiance and try to win in 2011) so may blow up for any chance at the GN after a slog in the Gold Cup that is bound to take a lot out of him – he was never fancied by anyone on here anyway and will keep the price up on all our other hopefuls. TT can go as low as they like not a penny on my money will go on him ut bloody hell he doe meet that 30/30 stat 3x24f with one of them at 28f or more! (thank god he’s only 7 and has had only 5 chase runs!!).
#204
February 13th, 2010 21:52
“Weights published……Thursday, February 18th”
http://www.aintree.co.uk/pages/john-smiths-grand-national-race-conditions/
I thought that it was earlier than that – but another 6 six days to go…
#205
February 13th, 2010 21:56
5 days – maths gone wrong
#206
February 13th, 2010 22:16
No Pablo, you were right, at the end of the entries list, they clearly state (on thier OWN website) weights published on 16 Feb. Dunno what they’re on about…
#207
February 13th, 2010 22:30
Betfair says 18th too in the Rules section beside the AP market
#208
February 13th, 2010 22:35
Seen that Showlad and I’m sure that it was Tuesday last year too
The MD of Aintree is, perhaps unfortunately, named Mr Thick – not that I’m suggesting that he is of course
#209
February 14th, 2010 09:56
RPRs for yesterday
TT 148
NM 151
AFO 129
So neither should go up (maybe NM by 1 lb or 2 lb max) unless the handicapper takes a very different view
#210
February 14th, 2010 10:10
Niche unlikely to get hit by handicapper – Buckler
By Tom Kerr 9:45AM 14 FEB 2010 NICHE MARKET trainer Bob Buckler said on Sunday that his John Smith’s Grand National hope was in rude health following his short head defeat to Tricky Trickster in the Aon Chase on Saturday – and that he should only be raised by a couple of pounds in the handicapfor it.
RELATED LINKS
» Grand National betting
The general second favourite for the National had harried Denman throughout before McCoy parted company with the 2008 Gold Cup winner and only a late lunge from Paul Nicholls’ second-string, Tricky Trickster, denied Niche Market victory.
Buckler said: “It was a super run. He idled in front when he had the race won and Tricky Trickster got going once Denman fell, and mugged him on the line.
“I spoke to the handicapper after the race and he said he probably wouldn’t be putting him up much for that. He said he would probably rise 1lb or 2lb, more because of Air Force One [in third] than Denman or Tricky Trickster.”
Niche Market could make his final outing before tackling the National at the Cheltenham Festival, according to Buckler, who added: “The owners are very keen to go for the William Hill Trophy. He’s a horse who takes his racing very well, but there have been no decisions about it yet.”
#211
February 14th, 2010 10:46
Phew !! – thank God for that … I think this horse has a massive chance now if he only goes up one or two pounds and will be number one on my list if thats confirmed . Problem now is the price has gone . However Ive a nice ante post voucher and I cant see how this one can be out of most peoples top three now…
#212
February 14th, 2010 11:04
The problem for Niche Market, as good as he is, is that the added possible 2lbs may make it very hard to win the GN what with his poor trends. I already have worries about DA’s weight (but I think he is on the right side of good) but if NM runs at Cheltenham and this extra weight – it does not look good to me. Happy to have that anti-post bet though in the bag.
Am I the only one that see’s this as another negative?
#213
February 14th, 2010 11:17
I’m beginning to think that Niche Market is a very very good horse, progressing and slightly underrated. Interesting to see what sort of race Tricky Trickster runs in the Gold Cup and also interesting to see how NM performs in the WH; was he placed in it one year? Either way, win or lose the National this year is shaping up to be one of the most fascinating ever albeit getting more and more difficult to pinpoint the possible winner.
#214
February 14th, 2010 11:27
Agree with you Maureen that its becoming harder than i imagined to pinpoint possible winners
For that reason im taking a closer look at largely unfashionable horses that have been overlooked. Iris de Balme is the main one im keeping my eye on – a big run in the Eider will be great. Also, One Cool Cookie who i’m starting to think will run now.
#215
February 14th, 2010 12:08
There seems to be negatives with every major runner this year! Are we missing a hidden gem?
I still have a feeling for Snowy, Hello Bud and My Will, they are slipping under the radar nicely. Hoping for lowish weights. Can’t wait till Tuesday…
My blog: In search of the big win
http://spankmydonkey.blogspot.com/
#216
February 14th, 2010 12:37
If NM only goes up 1 or 2 pounds then I may have to finally agree with you all and put him in my top 6 list! He’s better than I thought he was.
I think he should be put up more. A horse on level weights who was closing back up on Denman before his first error. Should be going up 5 or 6 in my opinion!
#217
February 14th, 2010 13:00
Buckley told ‘by handicapper’ after race re Niche only going up a pound or two…
I can’t believe Phil will just give out this info over the blower as if announcing bingo numbers lol..or is that common practice?
#218
February 14th, 2010 13:05
it wouldnt necesarily have been Phil?
#219
February 14th, 2010 13:12
Yeah article isn’t clear handicapper is referred to as ‘he’ and ‘he’ probaly wouldn’t be putting him up much for that run.
Mmmm..
Nich defo big conisderation for me but I feel the ones to watch will be especially Hello Bud and the likes of Iris De Balme and One Cool Cookie who will be on a great weight with Niche lugging round best part of a stone more..
#220
February 14th, 2010 13:14
With regards to horses running at Cheltenham and then going to run in the National. Can anyone please confirm the stats for running at cheltenham and then winning he Grand Natonal?
#221
February 14th, 2010 13:25
6/19
1990 4th Mr Frisk (Kim Muir)
1991 1st Seagram (William Hill)
1994 7th Miinnehoma (Gold Cup)
1996 2nd Rough Quest (Gold Cup)
2002 7th Bindaree (William Hill)
2007 2nd Silver Birch (X-Country)
All carried < 11’0 on the day in GN
#222
February 14th, 2010 13:34
Don’t forget Grittar fifth (some say sixth ) in Gold Cup in 1982.
Reading People where they claim Le Beau Bai will be on everyone’s short list when weights are published on Tuesday (or is that Thursday ).
What are other people’s verdict on him?
#223
February 14th, 2010 13:40
Is there more of a gap between Cheltenham and Aintree these days?
#224
February 14th, 2010 13:48
Hi Neil I rate Le Beau Bai VERY VERY highly. $ wins at 24f + (inc one at 29f) over last 16 months. Very creditable 3rd at Welsh, goes well on g/s too.
My main reason is his smart, smart character, he really reminds of the classic GN lil horses that craftily get round and bag the big prize, he’s also my fav 7 year old this year. As outlined by his trainer Richard Lee:
Lee remains keen to run the Glass Half Full Partnership’s seven-year-old and said: “The Blue Square Gold Cup is definitely Le Beau Bai’s target at the moment – hopefully it will rain enough for him.
“He is also in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup at Leopardstown but he is unlikely to run in that because I see that Money Trix is in there and it doesn’t seem terribly sensible to take him on at level weights.
“Haydock is a good, stiff track that should play to Le Beau Bai’s strengths and is very much plan A.”
He added: “[Part-owner] Lord Daresbury is very keen for Le Beau Bai to be entered in this year’s John Smith’s Grand National. The horse is very short on experience but he is the sort that would jump around there. For all he is only little, he is very careful and clever as a cat.
“Oliver [Greenhall] would ride him as he gets on very well with the horse. His father has horses in the yard but I use him because he is a very good rider. He is a great horseman and I am lucky to have him.”
#225
February 14th, 2010 13:48
4 wins not dollar wins lol.
#226
February 14th, 2010 13:54
Quote from Buckley re Niche and it was Phil he spoke to..crikey I thought these matters would be confidential…
“I spoke to Phil Smith (BHA head of handicapping) and he said he’d go 1lb or 2lb so that wouldn’t be the end of the world for Aintree.”
#227
February 14th, 2010 13:56
My only problem with Le Beau Bai is his age, simple as that. If he was 8, I would be piling on him. I know everyone has different opinions on certain stats, but the 6 and 7 year old stat is one I just can’t ignore. No money on him for that reason alone
#228
February 14th, 2010 13:59
May be the 7 year olds year this year…last year was the French Bred’s year…
#229
February 14th, 2010 14:01
ITS NOT SO MUCH THE AGE STAT THAT PUTS ME OFF SEAGULL ITS HIS INEXPERIENCE. i WOULDNT WRITE OFF POSSOL SOLELY ON THE GROUNDS OF BEING AGE 7, AS HE HAS SO MUCH EXPERIENCE. lE bEAU bAI ON THE OTHER HAND DOESNT, WHICH CONCERNS ME
#230
February 14th, 2010 14:01
oops – sorry about the caps
#231
February 14th, 2010 14:04
In the period 1929-1940 of the 12 races won there were FIVE seven year old winners.
What are the main reasons for that drought of late? Or do we feel that this stat is continuingly going to be eroded with the high exposure avialable now to 7 year olds to get more and more runs in and thus experience – could it be the next trend to go?
#232
February 14th, 2010 14:22
CRIKEY! GREAT, GREAT RUN from WAR OF ATTRITION at Navan just now at Navan. Another win!
#233
February 14th, 2010 14:23
Another nice win for WOA there.
Anyone considering him?
I cant wait for the weights to come out so I can get concrete thoughts together.
#234
February 14th, 2010 14:26
IF WOA gets a low weight he’s got to be worth serious consideration. He looks as good as ever over hurdles, just landed me a nice little touch there, nice one fella
#235
February 14th, 2010 14:31
giant, yes already have a nice AP ticket on him with 5 places at bet 365.gold cup winner, class carrying hopefully a very nice weight, how can you not feel each-way atleast thoughts.and that in a year where there are no stand out strong winning candidates for me.this year i think each way bets on WAO,SNOWY,HELLO,SOP and even MR P, and GTL if running are the ones to be on.
#236
February 14th, 2010 14:37
Le Beau Bai needs it soft I would say and that would put me off (plus age, high rating etc) – might be worth a bet on the day but antepost not for me
#237
February 14th, 2010 14:50
WAR slashed to 16s with some bookies for GN…
#238
February 14th, 2010 15:12
maureen says:
“Is there more of a gap between Cheltenham and Aintree these days?”
Certainly since 1990 GN normally 3 weeks after the Saturday after Cheltenham as it is this year
Occassionally it has been 2 weeks after and was 4 weeks after in 2007
#239
February 14th, 2010 15:23
Worry quote from owner of NM
‘everything about yesterday’s run was done in consultation with the handicapper. the greatest risk we faced was if we beat Denman fair and square. Which would have happened if Denman had stood up.’
Dunno but sounds very chummy and on the verge of a ‘fix’…did TT get the same ‘it’s ok Paul I wont put him up much if you run him ‘ favours??
Untoward at best…downright dodgy at worse… If at levels you beat AF1 (153) by 18 l…and you reduce AF1 say 2 lb for the run…then at levels to beat a 151 horse 18l then the least you can expect is 154…and this is taking Denman out of the picture…
I thought we had handicaps to level the playing field…guess some seem to be more equal than others…if they are that matey with the handicapper….sheesh…
#240
February 14th, 2010 15:43
Part of the reason for the 7 year olds was their quality, Showlad, remember one of them was five time gold cup winner, Golden Miller.
As for the dollar sign an error in typing or your subconscious saying that there money to be won backing him. LOL
Sounds good,except for recent records of seven year olds.
At the moment my grand national plans are up in the air. Will have to wait on Philip to decide.
#241
February 14th, 2010 15:49
Right, I’ve had a closer look at the performance of 7 year olds in the last 13 runnings (couldn’t be bothered to go back further!). I know something similar to this was done a month or two ago, but I’ve added their number of chase runs prior to the national. (First figure is finishing position, 2nd figure is odds, 3rd figure is number of UK/Ire chase runs prior to national).
Big Fella Thanks – 6th – 14/1 (6)
Can’t Buy Time – fell – 33/1 (9)
Nadover – 7th – 125/1 (13)
Bob Hall – PU – 100/1 (9)
No Full – F – 125/1 (14)
Madison Du Berlais – F – 66/1 (21)
Iron Man – UR – 50/1 (27)
Whispered Secret – UR – 100/1 (8)
Le Duc – UR – 33/1 (20)
Double Honour – UR – 25/1 (14)
Shardam – UR – 18/1 (13)
Royal Atalza – PU – 100/1 (3)
Montreal – F – 200/1 (15)
Jurancon – F – 10/1 (7)
Majed – 12th – 66/1 (0)
Iris Bleu – PU – 100/1 (12)
Spanish Main – UR – 25/1 (6)
Tresor De Mai – F – 66/1 (15)
Village King – F – 50/1 (13)
Castle Coin – UR – 200/1 (11)
Eudipe – F – 10/1 (15)
Damas – F – 200/1 (9)
Decyborg – PU – 200/1 (9)
Evangelica – 17th – 33/1 (17)
It can be seen that many 7 year olds have participated who have had a lot of chase experience. However, it can also been seen that many of those were rank outsiders and not many fancied 7 year olds had over 10 chase runs.
I would say that the most similar example to Possol is Eudipe in 1999. 15 previous chase runs including a class 2 win over 30f, and 3 placed performancs in grade 3 races over long distances. He was carrying 10’10.
These stats are not conclusive. What they do show is that Big Fella Thanks’ performance last year was excellent. However, I don’t think he stayed
#242
February 14th, 2010 16:46
Must report that just read racing post headlines where I discovered that Dick Francis, famous for queen mother’s Devon Loch has died today at 98.
Being horse racing lovers especially grand national I felt I must share this sad news with you.
#243
February 14th, 2010 17:32
Thanks for that Neil, is it the same novellist?
Nick you are SO bang on. Last year in Eurovision a jury member (they were responsible for 50% of vote) resigned as he had met with a contestant previously socially.
Could this running a horse and ALL DONE IN CONSULTATION with the handicapper be nothing less than OUTRAGEOUS?
Mmmmm maybe Dream Alliance’s run in Welsh was done in same way so he may get allocated 10 stone on Tuesday…lol.
It was a class 2 win leaving Air Force One miles behind and before Denmamn fell I think Niche looked the livelier of the two.
#244
February 14th, 2010 18:27
Yes, got his age wrong it was 89.
#245
February 14th, 2010 18:30
You guys have any thoughts as to the chances of Ellerslie george?
#246
February 14th, 2010 18:35
There are worse long shots but I just can’t see him staying 4m4f
#247
February 14th, 2010 19:03
There still seems to be money going on Snowy Morning; can’t tell you how annoyed I am to have missed that 66/1 the other week. Am going to top up my original bet before the weights come out.
#248
February 14th, 2010 19:08
anyone know of ellerslie’s intentions?
#249
February 14th, 2010 19:09
Snowy morning is one of my final 6 but going by previous weights he has been given i think the handicaper will scupper his chances again this year i guess he will get around 11-4, 11-5?
#250
February 14th, 2010 19:26
Hoping Snowy will get between 10-10 to 10-12. His OR is down to 147.
#251
February 14th, 2010 19:41
I managed to get 50′s on SM.
#252
February 14th, 2010 19:42
WOA still 33/1 with will hill. Seriously considering taking that before it is cut like with other firms.
#253
February 14th, 2010 20:06
Nick/Showlad, totally agree with you on this handicapper and owner having chats about weights. Good luck to Niche Market by the way. Still stats against him in my opinion but great that he’s going to run at Aintree anyway.
The handicapper truthfully answering an owner who asks how much is XYZ going to be raised for a performance probably isn’t against any protocols but may be it should be. In my eyes the handicapper is so central to the sport, he’s decides horses OR’s! Fair play, and transparency has to be the goal. Imagine what ‘pressure’ could be put on someone in the handicapper’s position,
”well, sir, we want to run our Irish National winner and Hennessy 3rd, as he would be a great asset to the GN line up, but what weight are you going to give him?”
I know these discussions go on in the press as it were, an owner reportedly says this, handicapper defends his decision (I remember Jenny Pitman publicly criticising handicapper back in ’84 for putting Corbiere’s weight up 10lbs to 12st when he only beat Greasepaint less than a length the year before) but there has to be a line drawn somewhere.
Anyway, guys and gals, I know these sorts of issues raise the hackles of most of us here but this is probably thought of as a public forum, not sure how it stands, legally, so I would say we should be careful about what is written. Perhaps hand the issue over to Mr McCririck, a friend of the site, who’s probably got a very good lawyer!
Snowy Morning- groundswell of support and money. Does it worry anyone that he hasn’t won a handicap chase?
#254
February 14th, 2010 20:58
Even though the story is in the RP today i am amazed that NM will only be raised 1 or 2 pounds, had Denman had stood up NM would not have been left infront that soon it would have been a very different race and he would have been very close to denman or maybe have beaten him,as he was closing, on this basis even though i don’t want to see it i would have thought that NM would have been hiked up at least 5LB, it only seems fair as he even at 9 seems to be a progressing type. And if he is only put up a pound or Two then i think in certain circles questions will be asked.
With regards to Snowy and not winning a H/cap chase, i just think he has been unlucky as he has always been given a lot of weight, with the National in mind he is a national type, fits the trends, completed the course on both occasions. If he were to be allocted 11st or just under he would have a fantastic chance but off 147 i see him the other side of 11st i am afraid, and the task is made so much harder
With
#255
February 14th, 2010 21:07
Talking of Mrs Pitman, she can play “games ” remember when she entered Burrough Hill Lad just to see what weight he’ll get. Handicapper of the time give him 12-7. Then she pulled him out.
#256
February 14th, 2010 21:09
crisp 73, I don’t see that as a problem since the Hcap stat is not a 19/19 stat and at least Snowy has run in 4 Hcaps(4-0,including 3rd in GN.). I think the fact that Bindaree had 6-0 and Miinnehoma had 4-1 means the door is open to any combo. What I would like to see is another chase win – any type -before GN just to match some of your new stats.
War Of Attrition only 1 Hcap, 1-0.
#257
February 14th, 2010 21:10
back in october or november i had this dream, and niche market won the national, a reason why ive backed it antepost
#258
February 14th, 2010 21:16
On site here is only conjecture Crisp, as in reality, we don’t know the conversation that took place ourselves or what any responses could have actually meant in full.
However, on a serious not, it may be good for a new rule to be made that no conversations are allowed to take place between entrants and handicapper.
#259
February 14th, 2010 21:23
Trainers are in contact with the Handicappers on a day-to-day basis, so I don’t quite understand why a fuss is being made on this occasion. After all, no one complained about Smith telling Williams that Mon Mome would get at least 161+ this year, regardless.
#260
February 14th, 2010 21:59
Just seen this quote from Niche Market’s owner….things have changed from 1 or 2LB to 2LB or a bit more, like i said in an earlier post i think the bit more is more likely
“After speaking to the BHA’s senior handicapper, Phil Smith, who will frame the National weights on Tuesday, Regan said: “I am expecting Niche will go up 2lb or a bit more, which would take his official mark from 148 to 150 or thereabouts.
“That ought to translate in the Grand National to around 11st, with the highest-rated entry being Albertas Run on 164, and I’d be happy with that.
“Anything under 11st would be great, but I think we’d be able to run a good race with any weight from 11st 1lb to 11st 3lb.”
#261
February 14th, 2010 22:25
Puzzled he might start off with around 11 stone, but what will his real weight be on race day.
#262
February 14th, 2010 22:35
the owner is saying 11st or there abouts……personally i think 11-3 to 11-5
#263
February 14th, 2010 23:40
To add to the above of course if those with more weight don’t run and the weights rise, which happens every year then of course the likely hood is that he will have an un-winable weight i fear.
#264
February 15th, 2010 01:37
Good point Me6. I don’t have a great understanding re handicapper and trainer contact etc, so if that is the case Phil obviously has done no wrong in the contact. Of the small rise.. that now seems to be getting larger.
Wonder if that was from the one interview, all the pieces being added in. Crikey..talk about Chinese whispers.
Where did you get your quote from Puzzled?
#265
February 15th, 2010 01:40
As much of the team have asked..why put Niche on that run?
#266
February 15th, 2010 06:59
The quote from NM’s owner is on the RP site:
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/g-regan-newbury-aintree-niche-market-a-model-grand-national-horse/682217/latest/
On the subject of handicapper/trainer contact, here is a quote from the BHA’s weekly handicapping blog:-
Many trainers contact us in any given week, and a proportion of the queries relate to updates on current marks or ratings for horses that have been off the course for some time, writes Martin Greenwood. The majority of the other questions asked of us are trainers/owners demanding an explanation as to why their horse is rated X: why is it rated so high; it isn’t winning because we are not dropping it enough, etc, etc.
Part of my handicapping process is to make sure that I can justify every decision I make, therefore I can always point to reasons why a certain horse is rated what it is. I understand that this process is part of my job, and I must be able to defend any decision I stand by.
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/goracing/blogs/handicappers.asp
This is separate from the Chief Handicapper’s occasional blog, which ought to make interesting reading next time it appears:-
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/goracing/blogs/head_of_handicapping.asp
#267
February 15th, 2010 08:47
I would like to announce a volte face about War of Attrition!!
I think I was expecting something better to jump out of the entries when initially dismissing him.
Having had a long think about it over the weekend (and even before he won again at the weekend) he has to be considered superior to so many of the others that I was considering worthwile bets.
Provided he gets the right sort of weight tomorrow, im on…
#268
February 15th, 2010 09:22
Good points all. I think the handicapper telling Mon Mome’s trainer that whatever you do this season the horse will get OR161 in the weights is slightly different. That converstaion happened way before Christmas, and it actually settled that issue- if Mon Mome, say, ran in four 20f chases and came last every time, he would still get OR161.
Miinnehoma, yes, Bindaree didn’t win a handicap chase did he, ran in 6, 15 chases overall, but his overall profile is a little unusual post 1990. OR136,(lowest OR winner of recent times)RPR144(lowest RPR of recent times) and was only a second season chaser wasn’t he? Miinnehoma himself only ran in 9 chases, 4 handicap chases, won 1.
#269
February 15th, 2010 09:31
Good man Daniel!! It’s definitely time to go to War!! I’ve had some of the 40s and may also top-up before the weights come out tomorrow. Didn’t think he would win yesterday to be honest, and with him winning I am a little concerned that they’ll go down the WH route. I hope they don’t and they save him for this. I know i’ve been banging on about him for a while and have probably bored people rigid, but I think the price could collapse when the weights come out tomorrow.
On another note, I watched the AON Chase absolutely aghast on Saturday. I posted on here about Denman not firing or falling but I didn’t think it would actually happen. If NM and TT only escape with a few lbs rise then they have been very lucky. Even if it is just a few lbs that would still put me off NM a bit. Over 4m4f, every pound counts.
One other thing, who do people reckon Pricewise will tip up on Wednesday morning? I don’t follow his tips but you can guarantee that whatever horse he tips will be much shorter on Wednesday afternoon than on Wednesday morning so if you fancy his likley tip then get in now.
#270
February 15th, 2010 09:52
Daniel, I thought WOA’s trainer was persona non grata due to his ambiguous comments regarding his intentions with WOA. Is this posteriori reasoning!!! Interesting to see what weight he’s given. Do you reckon he’ll get OR149 or a little extra special for a former Gold Cup winner? He was actually given an incentive to run last year wasn’t he?
#271
February 15th, 2010 09:54
Last year he went with Big Fella Thanks, so im kinda hoping he goes with Tricy Trickster this year, leaving some value out there for some of the others!
I agree – If WOA has a nice weight, he could by competing for favourtism come race day.
Ive had only the tinniest nible at 30 on Betfair this morning, but if he gets 11_03 or below, ill be having a major bet on him.
re: Niche Market – In a way I kind of hope he goes up a few pounds. At least then we can rule him out, or at least reduce his chances significantly – there are enough ‘maybe’ horses out there this year. One less wont upset me at all!!
Ive had all my little bets now – got two big ones in the bank for tomorrow.
If the weights are right, it will be DA and WOA…if not…who knows!!
#272
February 15th, 2010 09:56
Crisp – obviously it’s a concern about whether he will run or not, but if he is given the right sort of weight, I think it is more likely than not he will, which is why I will be happy to take the risk tomorrow if the weights are right.
Id rather be on him than;
Cane Brake – No piece of top quality form
Beat the Boys – ditto, plus inconsistent
Snowy Morning – question marks over jumping AND stamina – seems madness to back him for the GN given that!
and all the other ‘maybe’ horses.
#273
February 15th, 2010 10:23
Hi team noticed that ballyholand has entered the betting any thoughts?
#274
February 15th, 2010 10:26
“Cane Brake – No piece of top quality form”
Depends how you analyse form I suppose…
5th in Gold Cup beaten 11 lengths but Kauto Star staying on past My Will and State Of Play in the process
Won the Paddy Power Chase off 142 off top weight in Ireland – no other Irish GN winner had won an Irish handicap off such a high mark – in fact no GN winner has won a handicap off such a high mark since Earth Summit in 1998
The Paddy Power win was on the back of a win in the Troytown
No piece of good form for 3 years admittedly but this is a classy horse who’s been injured and trained specifically for the race for the past 2 years (couldn’t make it last time but was on 155)
On past form alone he’d be in my top 3 – just needs a nice weight and a decent run after weights
I don’t think there are many better outsiders to be honest
#275
February 15th, 2010 10:34
Sorry Pablo, you are quite right – my post was meant to say form as in recent.
The gold cup 5th was the reason I first considered him
As I say though, it’s a no brainer to prefer WOA to him I think
#276
February 15th, 2010 10:39
Crisp, Daniel,
When Phil Smith became senior handicapper one of his remits was to improve the strength-in-depth of the National and to get better horses to run. The compression of the weights and the reduction in top weight from 12st to 11-12 (and now to 11-10) have helped but no Gold Cup winner has lined up since Master Oats well over 10 years ago. I think Phil Smith would really love WOA to run. He was given a fair chance last year and this year I think he will be given another attractive mark. He was due to run at Sandown a few weeks ago off 148 and I think he will be given that rating tomorrow to try and tempt connections to run him.
I certainly agree with Daniel’s comments about some of the others. I think a lot of people (and bookies as well) had written off WOA until now. His last two runs have shown that he clearly retains a lot of ability and ethusiasm for the game. He jumps well, appreciates good ground and does meet most of the stats too. If he does get a rating of under 150 (and I think he will) I can see this horse being backed off the boards. He’s the sort of horse that if he wins and you weren’t on you’d be gutted.
#277
February 15th, 2010 10:48
Really feel WAO will not run..world hurdle for him.
Does he have the Strong Gale influence in his pedigree?
Anyway really impressive yesterday and I feel he will be headed to the world hurdle alone.
#278
February 15th, 2010 10:55
The WH worries me slightly but if he gets in under 150 I think he will run in the National. If you were Michael O’Leary what would you prefer a National winner or a WH hurdle winner? It’s a no-brainer to me. Also, this guy owns RyanAir, think how much free publicity the firm will get if WOA runs in the National. “Let’s have a chat to WOA’s owner, Michael O’Leary. He’s the man that owns RyanAir….” How many million viewers worldwide?!
#279
February 15th, 2010 11:03
WOA is one of my favoruite horses and he has won two races in quick succession before but not as competitive as the World Hurdle & GN – when he won the Gold Cup it was off a 2 1/2 month break
But I’m not going to back him until 5 day declarations at the earliest because of ground, Strong Gale (haven’t made my mkind up about this), potentially tough race in World Hurdle, uncertainities about weight (if the handicapper is true to his word he should go up for winning 2 consecutive hurdles races really – his hurdles RPRs are close to his 2nd in Supreme Novices to Brave Inca) and because the trainer has stated that they are taking it one day at a time with him.
I don’t think playing this early factors in all those considerations adequately. Not value for me.
#280
February 15th, 2010 11:05
…I didn’t mean won two races I meant run in two races – I don’t think he’ll win the World Hurdle
#281
February 15th, 2010 11:34
Totally agree Pablo. Great if he does enter and if there are those on this site that are quids in – then well done. For me I laid him at a profit yesterday as I have to go with my own call which is saying he will not run.
If he does then back on for a saver but I have to go with my gut.
#282
February 15th, 2010 12:25
Showlad/Pablo,
I take your points about his participation (or not) but to a certain extent those points apply to any ante-post bet in the National or any other race. The ground is important for any horse, trainers and owners can always change plans, horses can get injured on or off the course etc.
#283
February 15th, 2010 12:33
Showlad says:
February 15, 2010 at 1:37 AM
Where did you get your quote from Puzzled?
Showlad it was from the RP web site
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/g-regan-newbury-aintree-niche-market-a-model-grand-national-horse/682217/related/
#284
February 15th, 2010 12:36
Changing tack slightly (but bearing in mind earlier comments about Smith’s brief to get better horses into the national)
Assuming all the leading players make it to the startline come April, we could potentially have;
The last two Welsh National winners,
The last two Scottish National winners,
The Irish National winner,
The last 3 winners of the Becher,
The last 3 Grand National winners, and
A former Gold Cup winner….
That would make have to make it the best calibre of entrants since when I ask?
#285
February 15th, 2010 12:41
The Stayer says:
February 15, 2010 at 12:25 PM
Showlad/Pablo,
I take your points about his participation (or not) but to a certain extent those points apply to any ante-post bet in the National or any other race. The ground is important for any horse, trainers and owners can always change plans, horses can get injured on or off the course etc.
Come on Stayer do you not remember the terrible stunt Mouse Morris pulled last year? Told the press he wouldn’t run Hear the Echo straight after weight announced as the handicapper raisied his rating 9lb or so, and that he’d run WoA instead who’d been leniently treated. Major betting plunge on WoA follows. Final decs and WoA out, Hear the Echo runs…. Neither horse injured and ground not an issue either, both same owner horses too. Not a trainer to trust or take at his word imo, WoA won’t see a penny of mine until I can get NRNB terms.
#286
February 15th, 2010 12:50
Stayer
Agreed you are right
But for me this is a race that I will have a bet on come what may – there is a budget which will be wagered come what may. Therefore the value proposition is not “there’s no value in this race so I’ll have a bet on the next race or next week”.
I have a certain amount set aside plus any winnings from Cheltenham – so the value proposition is not this is a 2 pt bet or a 3 pt bet.
Therefore I am quite prepared to have just over 3 times more on a 10/1 shot on the day than to back something at 33/1 now – especially if I feel more comfortable waiting for ground, preparation etc. (WOA needs good ground – if it’s soft forget it).
I find antepost bets cloud my judgment, especially when looking at trends – last year I convinced myself that Rambo was a good thing because I already had some money on him so I started looking for similarities between his record and other winners (you’ll always find something if you look hard enough).
Hopefully this year I have learned my lesson and will play late (as I used to). So far I have bet on Cane Brake at nice odds and have traded out of Casey Jones.
#287
February 15th, 2010 12:56
I thought WOA missed the race on account of some problem last season? I thought he had some problem close to the GC but didn’t recover in time for the National either.
#288
February 15th, 2010 13:08
Daniel scratch off one former winner, Silver Birch will have one more run (not national ) before retirement. As reported by me a few weeks ago.
This was reported from racing post Weekender trainer’s comments. Gordon Elliot will be represented by Backstage only, so it appears to me.
#289
February 15th, 2010 13:33
Thanks Neil
Ok, so TWO former winners (including last years second placed too) etc
Still a pretty tasty renewal!!!
#290
February 15th, 2010 13:52
Can I just throw one more thing into the discussion;
Last year a French Bred won…
Year before a horse with blinkers won…
Whilst I appreciate plenty of us dismissed those stats prior to the race, I wonder if there will be another that tumbles this year?
With the first 4 home last year all carrying 11_00 or more (and with at least 3 of them likely to do line up and do so again) I guess the weight of the winner is an obvious place to start.
I dont think I will be ruling out any horse automatically on account of weight this year, but I will still be having huge preference for those around and below the 11 stone mark.
Anybody else planning to be fleixible with any of the more prevelant stats this year?
With the bad weather and the mass of cancelled fixtures over christmas, will we see a winner with only 2 prep runs, or without a top 3 finish this season??
#291
February 15th, 2010 14:09
With the quality and quantity of 7yos this season, that trend must be under serious attack.
#292
February 15th, 2010 14:12
I found it hard to interpret Elliott’s comments in the Weekender. He specifically mentioned La Touche Cup at Punchestown, but I think that was because it would be Silver Birch’s last race.
However, he also said the horse would have the same programme, which indicates it will run in the GN on the way.
#293
February 15th, 2010 14:13
Totally with you Brody not a penny of mine on WOA and no regrets if I have to saver bet him at 10/1 if he runs.
Me6 yes the 7 year old winner could well go this year..
#294
February 15th, 2010 14:15
One Cool Cookie declared for a traditional Grand National trial in the Bobbyjo chase at Fairyhouse on Saturday along with a plethora of National entries. I really think this has a chance of lining up now.
#295
February 15th, 2010 14:17
Daniel,
Obviously i’m bending the 30/30 stat to allow WOA into my calculations, but a GC winner clearly has the class required to win a National and clearly stays at least 3m2f.
I think in general the 30/30 stat could come under fire in the coming years as Irish horses are being kept at home more and more and are having different preparations than previously.
#296
February 15th, 2010 14:23
Ewok,
One Cool Cookie ran in the Bobbyjo Chase last year as well.
#297
February 15th, 2010 14:24
The 7 year old stat hey!
Its one that has stood for so long, and one that has been tested time and time and time again….
The sheer volume of those that have tried and failed I find hard to go against.
I think I am right in saying no 7 year old has even placed since 1970. Whilst we say no horse with more than 11_01 has won since 1983, we do know that some with more than 11_01 have almost won and many have filled 2nd, 3rd and 4th places over the years.
What also makes it a strong stat for me is the record of 6,7, 13 & 14 year olds in the race generally, not just in terms of winning;
In the last 11 years (not being selective, that’s just as far back as my records go) 44 horses have raced in the National as under 8s or over 12s
Only SEVEN have even managed to FINISH the race….
That tells you how hard it is for one of them to actually win it.
I agree though that this year’s 7yo entrants look like a strong batch, but I wont be parting with a penny of my money on ANY of them.
#298
February 15th, 2010 14:25
Yes Stayer but wasn’t trainer really dissapointed with weight? He will get in off a lot less this year. Dark horse defo.
#299
February 15th, 2010 14:33
Yes he is a dark horse. It will be interesting to see what happens with the Irish horses this year as the Irish National is 5 days before Aintree.
#300
February 15th, 2010 14:33
One horse not mentioned, but must have a huge chance (although not on trends,but form) is Madison De Berlais if it goes for it.
The only horse to beat an inform Denman, and on a flat track too.
#301
February 15th, 2010 14:35
Agree with many that althougth WOA does look good i will wait until its confirmed he runs for sure and take a lower price. At the right weight(doubtful)he would be a nice “stakes saver+” in the week of the race when the bookies will offer non runner money back, and better than SN (dodgy jumping) i think.
#302
February 15th, 2010 14:38
“no horse with more than 11.01 has won since 1983″
And again this year I think. Its a risk i am happy to take to place more bets lower down the field on some of the “B list” and well as the anti-post bets on my A list – you do have to have a cut off point somewhere.
#303
February 15th, 2010 14:50
Im not saying I think the winner will defo have more than 11_01 this year, but I wouldnt be at all surprised if it happens.
I am still looking for a horse with less than 11 stone that tickles my fancy, but if I cant find one, ill happily be backing something classy with 11_02, or 11_03 without hesitation.
#304
February 15th, 2010 14:54
Don’t think Denman was considered in form in that race Neil, though was a cracker from MDB..
#305
February 15th, 2010 14:55
yeah first run since the previous year’s GC (and his heart problems) was it not?
#306
February 15th, 2010 15:10
The Stayer says:
February 15, 2010 at 2:23 PM
Ewok,
One Cool Cookie ran in the Bobbyjo Chase last year as well.
—————————————
Bugger, theres me getting all exciting over nothing
Cheers Stayer
#307
February 15th, 2010 15:17
Is it tomorrow for entries? It says the 16th on Aintree web site but someone on here posted a couple of days ago stating that it was Thursday?
#308
February 15th, 2010 15:22
Trabolgan and Erics Charm out of Blue Sq. Gold Cup but both still in Racing Post chase.
#309
February 15th, 2010 15:27
It is tomorrow although Betfair and Aintree both indicated 18th the other day
Being a Grade 1 winner One Cool Cookie will not be favoured by the conditions of the race in the Bobbyjo but will meet the other horses on much better terms in the GN should he line up
He had to give weight away to Snowy Morning and Black Apalachi last year on ground much softer than he’d care for
#310
February 15th, 2010 15:30
Well, Erics Charm is not running in the Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock. His best left hand RPR134 is 7 lower than Bobbyjo’s, previous lowest. No Gone To Lunch.
Looking at that field a win for Beat The Boys/ Ballyfitz/Arbor Supreme will be interesting. While I think we need to be careful of over reacting to any performance, after Rambling Minster, definitely don’t want to throw the baby out with the bath water.
Recent GN winners who ran in Blue Square;
78 Lucius 3RD that season
92 Party Politics 5TH that season
98 Earth Summit 5TH that season
04 Amberleigh House previously 15th
09 Mon Mome 9TH that season, previously 3rd
GN placed horses over last 20 years
90 Rinus 1ST that season
91 Over The Road 8TH that season
94 Moorcroft Boy 2ND that season
95 Party Politics P-UP that season, previously 1st
96 Superior Finish previously 3rd
97 Suny Bay 1ST that season
99 Call It A Day previously 4th
00 Niki Dee 3RD that season
03 Supreme Glory 7TH that season, previously 4th
07 Philson Run 8TH that season
More importantly, who’s going to win Saturday and can we make some money for GN!!
#311
February 15th, 2010 15:37
I still cant fathom why the GC at Haydock is (comapred to others) such a poor trial;
– Its 7 weeks before the GN (giving plenty of time for recovery)
-
#312
February 15th, 2010 15:38
You could be right, Showlad, but MDB still warrants serious consideration even with a huge burden.
Me6, I’ve got the article about Silver Birch before me.
What can I say about him? He is the horse that put me on the map when winning the grand national and he will always be a pet around here. However,even at the advanced age of 13, he still retains ability. Last season he finished a highly creditable second to Garde Champetre in the La Touché Cup. (I think he meant this season as the race was ran on 30/04/09).
Since then he was carried out at Cheltenham last month (actually December, article was in January paper ) in the cross country chase. He is in great form at home and we will stick to the same route for time being. He will go back to Punchestown for the La Touché Cup in the spring and that will probably be it for him.
He doesn’t mention the national, but calling him a pet, etc and ending by saying he will be spoilt rotten by his owner suggests no national for him, how would his owner feel if they sent off the teenager and something happened in the race, I don’t think they risk it, and to be honest he owes nothing to no one.
#313
February 15th, 2010 15:38
..sorry!
– It gets good quality entries each year
– Haydock is a test of stamina, and due to the timing of the race, its often run in soft conditions, so if you can get 3m4f round Haydock you can get 4m4f round Aintree come April
and
– Haydock is a good test of jumping too.
Why does it not produce more eventual GN winners, be it in the same year or in future years??
#314
February 15th, 2010 15:51
Daniel, it is strange isn’t it. Haydock sued to be the place, if they couldn’t perform there they wouldn’t even bother tunring up at Aintree. You’ve reminded me by saying it’s 7 weeks, we will soon be entering the GN ‘last prep zone’. 38/40 have ran within 7 weeks of the race. Specify, 71, 82 days,(though he’d still managed 5 preps) and Aldaniti, 52 days, have been the exceptions.
#315
February 15th, 2010 15:53
Haydock sued to be the place! utter nonsense. I think I’ve got ‘handicapper fever’.
#316
February 15th, 2010 15:53
Quite right Crisp – and you dont want them running any time after the festival either really (although Rough Quest did buck this trend when he won his GN, having placed in the GC just 16 days before)
#317
February 15th, 2010 15:55
Why does it not produce more eventual GN winners, be it in the same year or in future years??
I don’t know – maybe because some trainers want a quieter prep and 3m 4f round Haydock in soft ground is a fair old slog unless you come home in your own time like Mon Mome did last year.
As above, winners of the Haydock GN Trial have had a poor win record in the GN for at least 20 years.
And they invariably go off way too short for GN – often <10/1 because of the market hype overdrive that occurs after weights out.
#318
February 15th, 2010 16:01
That’s the most logical answer isn’t it Pablo, but I would have thought 7 weeks was ample time to get a horse back in tip top shape before the GN
If you look across the racing calendar, 7 weeks is usually ample prep time for any of the big races.
That said, I guess the GN is a one off.
Here’s a little task for somebody – fill in hte gaps in my knowledge here if you could;
2009 – Mon Mome – PU Midlands National
2008 – Comply or Die – 1st Eider
2007 – Silver Birch – 2nd X Country @ Cheltenham
2006 – Numbersixvalverde – ??
2005 – Hedgehunter….
and so on…
would be interesting to see what type of race (if any) the eventual winner has for their final prep run.
#319
February 15th, 2010 16:05
It is strange, especially given that the race used to be called the “Greenalls Grand National Trial.”
I’m not too sure why the race hasn’t been a great trial in the past. Maybe down to the ground? Haydock in February often sees soft or heavy ground but most Nationals are run on good or good-soft ground.
Haydock isn’t the test of a chaser that it used to be. It used to have pretty stiff fences, some of them with drops, and that along with the fact that the course was left-handed and flat gave trainers the thought that horses that jumped and performed well there would have a good chance of taking to the Aintree course. That changed a few years ago when they removed the chase track and the fences to make way for a flat track. They now have wheely fences that they move on and off the hurdles course when required. The wheely fences are all standard, not as stiff as the old ones, with no drops and no water jump. It’s a shame but then the National course itself isn’t as tough as it used to be either.
#320
February 15th, 2010 16:09
2009 – Mon Mome – PU Midlands National
2008 – Comply or Die – 1st Eider
2007 – Silver Birch – 2nd X Country @ Cheltenham
2006 – Numbersixvalverde – 3rd Handicap Hurdle
2005 – Hedgehunter – 1st Bobbyjo
2004 – Amberleigh House – 5th Doncaster h’cap chase
2003 – Monty’s Pass – 4th Novices hurdle
2002 – Bindaree – 7th William Hill, Cheltenham
2001 – Red Marauder – Fell 20f Haydock h’cap chase (not GN Trial)
2000 – Papillon – 3rd Handicap hurdle
1999 – Bobbyjo – 1st Handicap hurdle
Real mixed bag
#321
February 15th, 2010 16:12
Mon Mome was 8th in Midlands not PU
#322
February 15th, 2010 16:13
So with the exception of Mon Mome (100/1) and Red Marauder (freak conditions) they all finished…
how far back do we have to go to find another horse to win the GN having not completed on its previous outing, or even finished outside the top 10 say?
#323
February 15th, 2010 16:14
Sorry Pablo, you’re quite right.
I knew he ran like a drain and must have had PU in my head because of it for some reason.
#324
February 15th, 2010 16:15
Mon Mome actually ran an OK trial at Haydock last year. Yes he finished 9th but he was actually staying on well at the end which is something I always look for
#325
February 15th, 2010 16:16
Mon Mome was 8th.
#326
February 15th, 2010 16:19
Apologies, Mon Mome finished a staying on 7th at Haydock, not 9th
#327
February 15th, 2010 16:25
Thanks for the info Stayer…
#328
February 15th, 2010 16:29
I’ve checked down as far as 1989 (Little Polveir) and, between then and now, there have been no Grand National winners who have finished outside top 10 (inc PU). I belive Mon Mome at 8th is the worst. Racing Post records don’t go back any further. If anyone is going to use this as a trend, I would suggest rule out any not finishing in top 10 last time out. If we had used ‘not finishing in top 7′ last year (based on previous stats) we would have missed out on Mon Mome, so a bit of leeway is required!
#329
February 15th, 2010 16:33
Mon mome last preparation race position seems to be improving every time you review it. Perhaps he might win it, lol.
#330
February 15th, 2010 16:33
Agreed Speedyseagull.
To be fair, I will simply be ruling out anything that I feel ran like an utter drain last time (which is probably common sense anyway to be fair) but its good to see that history backs it up.
7th in a William Hill is no disgrace, nor is 8th in the Midlands National off top weight – although of course you may question whether a horse could recover from that within 3 weeks – the reason a lot were put off last year I think.
Would be grateful if you could post up the others as well…would be nice to add to my records.
#331
February 15th, 2010 16:34
Neil S says:
February 15, 2010 at 4:33 PM
Mon mome last preparation race position seems to be improving every time you review it. Perhaps he might win it, lol.
7th at Haydock, 8th at Uttoxeter Neil, that’s why it looks like it changes everytime!
#332
February 15th, 2010 16:41
PU would be a concern
F is no disgrace but would rather have a clear round lto
Of course finishing position depends on # runners so some leeway has to be there really
Monty’s Pass got a top 4 finish lto but he was 4th of 4 beaten 36l – the race was only over 2m though
#333
February 15th, 2010 16:45
“Of course finishing position depends on # runners so some leeway has to be there really
Monty’s Pass got a top 4 finish lto but he was 4th of 4 beaten 36l – the race was only over 2m though”
Agreed – that’s why I wasn’t going to penalise (in my head) a horse for coming 5th in ,say, the RP Chase, but give a boost to one coming 3rd of 4 in a 2m4f hurdle!
#334
February 15th, 2010 16:54
The others are:
1998 – Earth Summit – 5th Greenalls G3 chase
1997 – Lord Gyllene – 2nd Midlands National
1996 – Rough Quest – 2nd Cheltenham Gold Cup
1995 – Royal Athlete – 5th Doncaster class 2 hurdles race
1994 – Miinnehoma – 7th – Cheltenham Gold Cup
1993 – Race Void
1992 – Party Politics – 5th Greenalls G3 chase
1991 – Seagram – 1st – National Hunt Handicap chase
1990 – Mr Frisk – 4th – Kim Muir Handicap chase
1989 – Little Polveir – 4th – Sandown Amateurs Chase
At the entries stage last year, the horses ranked down to 75th in the entries list ended up racing and, in 2008, it was the horses ranked down to 71st in the list. As there are a lot fewer entries this year, there will be less to come out and so I think we can pretty safely say that if your horse is outside top 70 of tomorrow’s weights then he won’t be running
#335
February 15th, 2010 16:58
So do we have a time for when weights are published tomorrow or do I have to keep checking my internet every 5 mins at work? (no work done for me in that case!!)
#336
February 15th, 2010 17:00
DE and others…Haydock was/is my local track and no idea why the Tommy Whittle and the Greenalls (am too long n the tooth to give them their new sponsor names!)are not good trials.
The shame is that Haydock used to have drop fences which were then angled and now replaced with artificials. Maybe they were good trials before the changes? Red Rum was always given a spin there ( I know I know am going back a bit!).
Re the weights: Dont they have (or did have) a lunch (charity?) where they invite jocks/owners/trainers and celebs and the weights are revealed on the 3rd Tue in Feb (ie tomorrow!) so in the public domain?
#337
February 15th, 2010 17:09
I thought Red Rum preparation race was at Catterick for his final victory, because I’ve a video which says McCain was in a bullish mood afterwards.
#338
February 15th, 2010 17:11
was 12pm last year i think
#339
February 15th, 2010 17:16
From personal memory, talking of McCain, Amberleigh House’s preparation run was in a hurdle race. I remember watching it and thinking to myself next time it will probably be in the winner’s enclosure.
#340
February 15th, 2010 17:19
Neil, returning to Silver Birch . . .
surely “same route” means he’s running in the National???
This is my 3rd attempt at this – after this, I’m giving up on this particular topic!
#341
February 15th, 2010 17:20
So a quite day for the blog tomorrow when weights get published, can’t wait to read everyones verdicts.
#342
February 15th, 2010 17:24
Last year he did run in national, but I think he meant a couple of hurdle races and cross country races. He says Backstage is specially aimed at national.
#343
February 15th, 2010 17:27
I’ve got some stats for Blue Square, anybody looked at it yet?
Last 10 years(haven’t had time to go back further yet)
Reckon we’re looking for something;
aged 7-11
on a bigger OR than previous win
ran in less than 20 chases
won at 24f or placed at further than 24f
3 chase wins or a 30% or more chase win strike rate
17k chase win
won 1 of last 6 chases
a top 3 finish in last (completed) chase
ran in the last 13 weeks, 91 days
#344
February 15th, 2010 17:28
The most important trial this year appears to be the Bobbyjo. Not only has it got 10 GN hopefuls in it, but they’d all get into the race if going for it.
#345
February 15th, 2010 17:36
I think Dream Alliance, Beat The Boys, Arbor Supreme look quite good on those trends.
#346
February 15th, 2010 18:04
Come on Arbor Supreme – you know you can do it!
This one has no excuses this time and it my eye has been well hidden until the weights are out. So its now or never time for me. A win would make him a top 3 pick for the GN (would meet all the stats then)but even a place would make him look good. A place for DA would also be nice.
#347
February 15th, 2010 18:15
im going to wait for the weights are announced, but early fancies being niche market and after tricky tricksters run on saturday and win im liking him to if ruby walsh rides, though p.nicholls has yet to train a national winner
im also liking dream alliance
#348
February 15th, 2010 19:14
I had a vision of you riding him to glory over the finish line there Systems, wearing a ‘Team GN blog’ T Shirt lol
#349
February 15th, 2010 20:16
Guys. Apologies if I am just late with this message as I have not gone back a few pages but I assume those interested in War of Attrition have seen of heard on the owner’s interview on ATR Yesterday? He did not sound that keen at all on the GN and he said clearly that if AOA gets a bigger weight for Aintree than he would have in Ireland, he won’t run in the National. He went onto bemoan the same situation with Hear the Echo last year who died after the race and he said he will not take that chance with WOA. May be sabre ratling but I’d say it would be very wise to hold bets on him as I’d hate to see it be money down the drain.
#350
February 15th, 2010 20:27
Can’t blame him really, we can always back something else, but when you own a horse you either love it, or hate it and with Hear The Echo fate I think the latter for War’s owners.
Will someone be putting the entries on here A.S.A.P if published tomorrow, thank you!
#351
February 15th, 2010 21:14
Three wishes for weights day…
1. Cane Brake 149 or less
2. One Cool Cookie 145 or less
3. Top weight at least 161
#352
February 15th, 2010 21:33
Theres been a lot of money for Casey Jones today. Last price matched on betfair was 42.0! What have I missed?
#353
February 15th, 2010 21:42
50/1 with Stan James?
#354
February 15th, 2010 21:57
My last minute ‘panic’ bet today should have been Cane Brake at 66/1 but I didn’t get round to placing it.
#355
February 16th, 2010 00:09
OK Team.
I declare Phase 2 of The TOP 6 TIPSTERS LEAGUE – OPEN!!
We’re into Tuesday 16 February now and I’m kicking off with TC’s list. He’s away so asekd me to post up for him in his absence. Posting up now so that whoever gets weights news first later today and wants to put up their Top 6 List, can do so.
TC’s is a great, reasoned cracker and he’s also tried to guess the weights – wonder how close he gets?:
TC: It’s really been a struggle to find a strong stand out contender for this years national so thought I may as well put in my top 6 as I wont be around next weekend, or for when the weights are announced.
The front of the market is very weak filled with inexperience and likely ‘weighty’ horses. It does look as if the Irish are going to be very strong this year and have also grown wise to Phil Smith’s handicapping regime by giving their horses an outing in the UK, which probably means their mark will remain unaltered.
There is likely to be many front/prominent runners in the line-up with most looking doubtful ‘stayers’ and others who are likely to be carrying plenty of weight. So, as much as I wouldn’t like to back too many hold-up horses in the national., the race could pan out and be tailor made for one to be held-up.
In My top 6 I’ve tried to incorporate the trends and have ranked the horses I would be inclined to back at this current stage. Could well be possible that a few trends can be broken, given the current climate in this country and horses not being able to get a run!
The fact they all have an entry, is that there is a chance that any of them will line up on April 10th. Nearly played very safe on the selections, but am willing to take a chance with a few. Thought I’d put up a bit of reasoning behind the selections, so out of the 112 entries my current top 6;
6pts – Iris de Balme – (141 10st 4lbs) Finally got back on the track and had a pretty decent outing over hurdles at the weekend. I don’t think the Scottish national has been a good GN trial in recent years, but this fella can’t be ignored as he absolutely bolted up. He proved it was no fluke a week later at Sandown. He could yet still be a long way ahead of the handicapper. He was given a superb hold-up ride in the Scottish national and quickened away superbly at Ayr. Similar tactics should help him go very close at Aintree
5pts – Arbor Supreme, – (144 – 10st 7lbs) Hold-up horse who has stamina in abundance and I’m not going to give up on him, he disappointed in the Irish national where the race was almost run in ‘two-halves’ and wasn’t a true enough test of stamina for him. He hasn’t done much yet this season either and preparation has been far from ideal. Hopefully he can return to somewhere near his best in the next couple of runs. The willhill trophy would seem a suitable target for him and McCoy completing the GC/GN double and finally getting the Sports Personality which he so much deserves.
4pts – Royal County Star – (145 10st 8lbs) The one ‘trends’ horse I actually like! They tried to get him to the national last year but failed to recover quickly enough from his hennessy exploits. Question marks over his jumping perhaps, but Paul Carberry gave him a superb waiting ride in the Kerry National to put up a career best effort. The same man on board again and he’d have every chance
3pts – Mr Pointment – (141 10st 4lbs) Paul Murphy worked wonders last year with his two runners. MP has been off the track so long but I wonder if Mr Murphy can work a little more magic with this one. Rated 155 in the national 2 years ago and was running well, till the weight had It’s say. A course specialist who is now a stone lower and likely to have a feather weight
2pts – Gone To Lunch – (146 10st 8lbs) Thought his display at Sandown on Saturday was quite encouraging. He jumped well enough, but the trip was clearly too short. He’s another hold-up horse with bags of stamina but do need to see just a little more next time
1pt – Snowy Morning – (147 10st 9lbs) May yet go up a couple of pounds as he’s returned to somewhere near his best this season. 3rd time lucky for him? Always seems to show his best at Aintree but the tendency to always put in a poor jump or two means I don’t know if he is quite good enough to win. A good round in the Bobbyjo and his price should plummet
Obviously had a bit of a guess on the weights!! Selections may change if those weights are miles out. Four hold-up horses!! Happy to read any thoughts
One horse that still intrigues me is Trust Fund as I’m convinced he has never been able to show his best in an injury plagued career. The other Cloudy Lane, hopefully he’ll run at Haydock in two weeks and will watch that race with keen interest when I return.
Thanks TC
OK the first set of results makes the Table thus:
6 IRIS DE BALME
5 ARBOR SUPREME
4 ROYAL COUNTY STAR
3 MR POINMENT
2 GONE TO LUNCH
1 SNOWY MORNING
Remember and add in your scores Team and carry the evolving Table forward.
#356
February 16th, 2010 09:11
Just a bit of time before the big announcement! One or two bookies already adjusting some of their prices. I’m planning on doing as much work as I can this morning so I can study the weights this afternoon!!
#357
February 16th, 2010 11:04
Nice one Phil Smith!!!
Mouse Morris has ruled out a crack at the John Smith’s Grand National with War Of Attrition.
The Irish trainer was thoroughly dissatisfied with his the 11-year-old’s allotted weight of 11st 1lb in the Aintree feature and he will now skip the April 10 contest.
The 11-year-old, winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2006, is set to retire at the end of the year despite undergoing a renaissance over hurdles this term.
Morris had hoped to take in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at Cheltenham before going on to the National but he was very disappointed with the handicapper’s assessment of his horse.
“I think with that weight they are basically saying they don’t want us to run,” he said.
“If (joint top-weight) Albertas Run is rated 164 and we are getting 9lb, that means he’s rating us 155.
“I entered our horse in a handicap chase at Sandown the other week and they rated him 149, so I don’t know how they’ve come up with 11st 1lb to be honest.
“We’ve decided we’re not going to go as we won’t be going where we’re not wanted and I don’t know how he can justify that weight.
“The plan now would be to go straight to the World Hurdle and he’ll then probably have his last run at the Punchestown Festival in the Guinness Gold Cup or the big staying hurdle race.”
#358
February 16th, 2010 11:12
ALBERTAS RUN (IRE) 9-11-10;
MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 9-11-10;
NOTRE PERE (FR) 9-11-10;
TARANIS (FR) 9-11-09;
OUR VIC (IRE) 12-11-08;
MON MOME (FR) 10-11-07;
BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 11-11-06;
JOE LIVELY (IRE) 11-11-06;
VIC VENTURI (IRE) 10-11-06.
COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 11-11-05;
DON’T PUSH IT (IRE) 10-11-05;
IRISH INVADER (IRE) 9-11-05;
MADE IN TAIPAN (IRE) 8-11-04;
NICHE MARKET;
TRICKY TRICKSTER (IRE) 7-11-04;
CASEY JONES (IRE) 9-11-03;
CLOUDY LANE 10-11-03;
DREAM ALLIANCE 9-11-03;
NOZIC (FR) 9-11-03;
POSSOL (FR) 7-11-03;
SIEGEMASTER (IRE) 9-11-03;
MY WILL (FR) 10-11-02;
PABLO DU CHARMIL (FR) 9-11-02;
ONE COOL COOKIE (IRE) 9-11-01;
WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 11-11-01;
BACKSTAGE (FR) 8-11-00;
BALLYHOLLAND (IRE) 9-11-00;
BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 9-11-00;
PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 10-11-00;
ROULEZ COOL 7-11-00.
BERONI (IRE) 8-10-13;
CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 8-10-13;
LE BEAU BAI (FR) 7-10-13;
SEVEN IS MY NUMBER (IRE);
SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 10-10-13;
AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 8-10-12;
BIG FELLA THANKS 8-10-12;
DARKNESS 11-10-12;
DEUTSCHLAND (USA) 7-10-12;
LOUPING D’AINAY (FR) 11-10-12;
CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 10-10-11;
CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 10-10-11;
DOONEYS GATE (IRE) 9-10-11;
GONE TO LUNCH (IRE) 10-10-11;
KORNATI KID 8-10-11;
STATE OF PLAY 10-10-11;
ELLERSLIE GEORGE (IRE) 10-10-10;
FOLLOW THE PLAN (IRE) 7-10-10 ;
JAYO (FR) 7-10-10;
ROYAL COUNTY STAR (IRE) 11-10-10;
BALLYFITZ 10-10-09;
CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 11-10-09;
EQUUS MAXIMUS (IRE) 10-10-09;
ERIC’S CHARM (FR) 12-10-09;
KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 11-10-09;
OLLIE MAGERN 12-10-09;
ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 8-10-08;
CANE BRAKE (IRE) 11-10-08;
KILCREA CASTLE (IRE) 8-10-08;
LENNON (IRE) 10-10-08;
MALJIMAR (IRE) 10-10-08;
NEW ALCO (FR) 9-10-08;
BIBLE LORD (IRE) 9-10-07;
IRISH RAPTOR (IRE) 11-10-07;
MR POINTMENT (IRE) 11-10-07;
PARSONS PISTOL (IRE) 8-10-07;
PIRAYA (FR) 7-10-07;
RAZOR ROYALE (IRE) 8-10-07;
THE PACKAGE 7-10-07.
HELLO BUD (IRE) 12-10-06;
IRIS DE BALME (FR) 10-10-06;
PALYPSO DE CREEK (FR) 7-10-06;
TRUST FUND (IRE) 12-10-06;
ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 9-10-05;
CERIUM (FR) 9-10-05;
FLINTOFF (USA) 9-10-05;
PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 12-10-05;
ROYAL ROSA (FR) 11-10-05;
SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 13-10-05;
COE (IRE) 8-10-04;
GLENFINN CAPTAIN (IRE) 11-10-04;
KNOWHERE (IRE) 12-10-04;
OODACHEE 11-10-04;
WHINSTONE BOY(IRE) 9-10-04;
FAASEL (IRE) 9-10-03;
MUMBLES HEAD (IRE) 9-10-03;
OFFICIER DE RESERVE (FR) 8-10-03;
SIZING AUSTRALIA (IRE) 8-10-03;
TRABOLGAN (IRE) 12-10-03;
CHIEF DAN GEORGE (IRE) 10-10-02;
DUERS (IRE) 8-10-02;
BALLYTRIM (IRE) 9-10-01;
OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 10-10-01; P
AK JACK (FR) 10-10-01;
BOYCHUK (IRE) 9-10-00;
KINGS ADVOCATE (IRE) 10-10-00;
TREACLE (IRE) 9-10-00.
GALANT NUIT (FR) 6-9-13;
ANOTHERCOPPERCOAST (IRE) 10-9-12;
BELON GALE (IRE) 7-9-12;
POMME TIEPY (FR) 7-9-12;
MERIGO (FR) 9-9-10;
CHIARO (FR) 8-9-09;
KILBEGGAN BLADE 11-9-09;
ACCORDING TO JOHN (IRE) 10-9-08;
LORUM LEADER (IRE) 9-9-07;
OLD BENNY 9-9-07.
OVER THE CREEK 11-9-04;
COSSACK DANCER (IRE) 12-9-01;
WEE ROBBIE; OFFALY (IRE) 9-8-12.
STAR DE MOHAISON (FR) DR.
#359
February 16th, 2010 11:16
First observations: With one or two exceptions the Irish horses look badly treated again. WOA up to 155 when he would have run at Sandown the other day off 148? One Cool Cookie on the same mark. Irish Invader 11-05?? Where has Phil Smith got that from? Looks like NM and TT got put up more than 1-2lbs for there AON run the other day. I see Hello Bud and Iris De Balme are 70 and 71. Will they get in?
#360
February 16th, 2010 11:23
With all those class horses up near the top of the weights, I really think we could see a winner carrying more than 11 stone this year.
Shocking treatment of One Cool Cookie I must say! At least Snowy Morning has a nice enough weights – on the back of that list, he is the only one I have backed heavily today, with tiny bets on Cane Brake and Beat The Boys too.
A good run from Arbor Supreme at Haydock will put me onto him too.
#361
February 16th, 2010 11:25
One Cool Cookie wont be running off that mark – the trainer was fuming last year – even worse treatment this year!!
#362
February 16th, 2010 11:27
Huge rise for Niche, totally predictable and shocking handling of the horse from Buckler. Why chase after place money in the AON and sacrifice your chance of winning the national? Idiotic.
#363
February 16th, 2010 11:34
After a quick glance the following look attractive to me:
Air Force One 10-12
Arbour Supreme 10-08
Cane Brake 10-08
I think Air Force One has been given a real chance off 10-12 as that equates to 150ish.
#364
February 16th, 2010 11:43
Are these wts. a joke or what. Niche and Tricky 11.04. Dream Alliance 11.03 and Backstage 11.00. Can’t believe it.
#365
February 16th, 2010 11:49
I’ve had a bit on Air Force One at 66/1. Charlie Mann seems to be the only trainer pleased with the weight his horse has been allocated!
#366
February 16th, 2010 11:55
Well – thats put the cat amongst the pigeons!
Rule out Niche Market, Tricky Trickster and Dream Alliance at the weights.
#367
February 16th, 2010 11:55
Horror show !! mr buckler and nicholls must have their head in the gas oven about to light the swan vestas.
If ur from the emerald isle you might as well not bother turning up …
#368
February 16th, 2010 12:02
Only 2Lbs. between Mon Mome and COD for 12L. Bottom wt. looks like 10.05 so add 12Lbs and we have 10.05-11.03 as winner range.
#369
February 16th, 2010 12:02
State of Play backed with Hills at 33/1.
What will the raceday weights be? I reckon a rise of 3lbs with all above Mon Mome coming out. Notre Pere is a real fly in the ointment – trainer has a history of last minute (unexpected) withdrawals.
#370
February 16th, 2010 12:06
One thing to bear in mind as well is that the top 5 in the handicap – Albertas Run, Madison, Notre Pere, Taranis, Our Vic – are all far from certain runners. It’s possible (and I would say quite likely actually) that none of those will run meaning the weights go up by 3lb.
#371
February 16th, 2010 12:09
bloody hell, is this real.
Nice little chats with the handicapper ey..
this list is all over the place.
WOA looks well treated compared to alot here, I would run him instead of sticking two fingers up, 11-1 winnable weight. Felt he could do it still do! just look at the competition Mouse!
#372
February 16th, 2010 12:11
Has Salvador Dali taken over the universe …. Surreal!
I reckon it’ll go two ways. Madison and Notre Pere etc, will have a go, less forfeits than usual, bottom weight is 10-8 and anything could happen, Mon Mome and COD carry less than a stone more than bottom weight! … or Mon Mome top weight, 3lbs rise, slightly more forfeits than usual, bottom weight is 10-4 +3 so 10-7. Second scenario most likely? At this stage I think it’s looking likely the winner has been given 10-13 or less.
Perhaps we should just ignore the Hennessy, Welsh Nat, Becher etc, horses get hammered while those running in hurdles get nice weights, didnt you know who publicly say, ‘I want to support trainers who support races like the Becher’, or something along those lines. Vic Venturi 11-6!!!!! I’d hate to get on the wrong side of the fella!!
#373
February 16th, 2010 12:11
Gammers,
You got in just before me. I think the top 5 in the handicap are all unlikely runners so I see the weights going up by 3lbs. For that reason i’m initially going to focus on those set to carry 10-13/10-12 and under.
#374
February 16th, 2010 12:14
Mon Mome running off 155 eh?
COD’s connections must be fuming – he went up 13lb and Mon Mome goes up a mere 7lb
MM has an excellent chance of being placed (at least) I would have thought
Very happy with Cane Brake’s weight – hoping for some positive comments from connections
#375
February 16th, 2010 12:15
I thought Notre Pere was being aimed at this race…those were the comments of connections earlier in the season, that’s for sure.
Obviously the lower down the weights you go the saver it is, but I would say its 50/50 that we get no rise in the weights.
Isn’t it true that one of the top 5 has lined up in each of the past 10 years?
I seem to remember last year us expecting one or two more to come out, but they didnt.
#376
February 16th, 2010 12:16
Oh, and did we say the last 3 winners have all been allocated 10_06 on weights day?
Good news for Hello Bud & Iris De Balme fans if that is the case!
#377
February 16th, 2010 12:17
I know Crisp it’s a joke. Phil Smith has basically killed the Becher Chase. If a horse wins it they have no realistic chance in the National.
I’m totally gobsmacked by the weight he has given Irish Invader. Ran off 143 last year and was beaten 44l in 11th place. He has not run since but off 11-05 has effectively been given a rating of 159. 159?!?!?! Where the **** has that come from?!
#378
February 16th, 2010 12:22
According to RP weights Albertas is 158 and Mon Mome 155
If true this is an amazing compression of the weights (far worse than last year) and makes ante-post betting on the National pre-weights a complete lottery – might as well choose red or black
Too much meddling for my liking
#379
February 16th, 2010 12:24
Why so desperate to have a winner carry more than 11’01?
It ain’t broke so don’t meddle!
#380
February 16th, 2010 12:28
As mentioned already the top 5 are unlikely to go National route.
Albertas, Madison, Taranis likely to go for the Betfair Bowl/Martell Chase (whatever it is called this year) Our Vic could join them or he may go for the 3 mile hcp. I would be surprised if Notre even made the journey over.
Mon Mome looking like the probable top weight….
#381
February 16th, 2010 12:29
Am I the only one that quite likes the fact this has thrown it wide open?!
Ok, it makes us stats nerds a bit miffed and a couple of our antepost shouts wide of the mark, but that’s the risk you take if you play antepost.
Personally I think it will be one of the best nationals for a long time – I just hope they go a proper pace, unlike last year. If they do, the winner is going to be right out of the top drawer.
#382
February 16th, 2010 12:30
Pablo
Agree! Far too much meddling!
#383
February 16th, 2010 12:32
WOA OUT OF NATIONAL….
Mouse Morris has ruled out a crack at the John Smith’s Grand National with former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner War Of Attrition.
The trainer was thoroughly dissatisfied with the 11-year-old’s allotted weight of 11st 1lb in the Aintree feature and he will now skip the April 10 contest.
“With that weight they are basically saying they don’t want us to run. We’ve decided we’re not going to go as we won’t be going where we’re not wanted. I don’t know how he can justify that weight,” he said.
“If (joint top-weight) Albertas Run is rated 164 and we are getting 9lb, that means he’s rating us 155. I entered our horse in a handicap chase at Sandown the other week and they rated him 149, so I don’t know how they’ve come up with 11st 1lb.
“The plan now would be to go straight to the World Hurdle and he’ll then probably have his last run at the Punchestown Festival in the Guinness Gold Cup or the big staying hurdle race.”
Jim Dreaper was in more philosophical mood after Notre Pere was allotted joint top weight of 11st 10lb.
“It doesn’t matter what we think about it, that’s the weight they are going to carry. That’s more or less what we expected. We’ll put up with it,” said the trainer.
“The National is one of the options. He was disappointing the last day (in the Irish Hennessy), but the run of the race didn’t go for him.
“If it’s heavy ground he might still line-up in the Gold Cup, if it’s good ground he won’t. As far as the National is concerned the ground doesn’t matter as much – running four and a half miles on heavy ground isn’t fair on any horse.
“He appears to be in good form and he may go to Fairyhouse (for the Bobbyjo Chase) on Saturday.”
#384
February 16th, 2010 12:33
Full race card with ratings from RP website below. Basically he’s knocked 6lbs off Albertas Run and made top weight 158.
1 3-P136 Albertas Run105 9 11-10 Jonjo O´Neill 158 152 168
2 81-324 Madison Du Berlais70 9 11-10 D E Pipe 158 157 166
3 -1F544 Notre Pere62 9 11-10 J T R Dreaper 158 176 177
4 214P/1 Taranis70 9 11-9 P F Nicholls 157 101 169
5 -61O81 Our Vic77 12 11-8 D E Pipe 156 167 173
6 81-P34 Mon Mome77 10 11-7 Miss Venetia Williams 155 157 161
7 151U-0 Black Apalachi77 11 11-6 D T Hughes 154 —
8 5-5003 Joe Lively70 11 11-6 C L Tizzard 154 124 173
9 -21150 Vic Venturi77 10 11-6 D T Hughes 154 158 166
10 P072-0 Comply Or Die147 11 11-5 D E Pipe 153 —
11 71-423 Don´t Push It125 10 11-5 Jonjo O´Neill 153 158 168
12 31110- Irish Invader371 9 11-5 W P Mullins 153 —
13 -3U247 Made In Taipan62 8 11-4 Thomas Mullins 152 159 168
14 1-8352 Niche Market56 9 11-4 R H Buckler 152 159 164
15 121-21 Tricky Trickster56 7 11-4 P F Nicholls 152 150 160
16 15P-14 Casey Jones154 9 11-3 Noel Meade 151 121 166
17 1FU-36 Cloudy Lane77 10 11-3 D McCain Jnr 151 153 156
18 UPP/21 Dream Alliance103 9 11-3 P J Hobbs 151 153 168
19 P00-69 Nozic103 9 11-3 P F Nicholls 151 132 168
20 201-11 Possol119 7 11-3 H D Daly 151 128 171
21 -13233 Siegemaster56 9 11-3 D T Hughes 151 112 171
22 53-275 My Will125 10 11-2 P F Nicholls 150 147 163
23 606-4F Pablo Du Charmil70 9 11-2 D E Pipe 150 134 165
24 -74275 One Cool Cookie72 9 11-1 C F Swan 149 149 167
25 230411 War Of Attrition55 11 11-1 M F Morris 149 121 163
26 112313 Backstage62 8 11-0 Gordon Elliott 148 131 168
27 6-5111 Ballyholland81 9 11-0 C A McBratney 148 160 164
28 P-1P1P Beat The Boys120 9 11-0 N A Twiston-Davies 148 142 164
29 90-780 Preists Leap79 10 11-0 Thomas Gerard O´Leary 148 92 155
30 U1-211 Roulez Cool77P 7 11-0 Robert Waley-Cohen 148 134 165
31 -31118 Beroni79 8 10-13 W P Mullins 147 137 167
32 14F-01 Can´t Buy Time99 8 10-13 Jonjo O´Neill 147 136 166
33 1-7131 Le Beau Bai64 7 10-13 R Lee 147 153 165
34 11411P Seven Is My Number70 8 10-13 D E Pipe 147 152 168
35 118322 Snowy Morning72 10 10-13 W P Mullins 147 165 167
36 506-P3 Air Force One56 8 10-12 C J Mann 146 138 151
37 136-2U Big Fella Thanks57 8 10-12 P F Nicholls 146 136 157
38 /3P10- Darkness371 11 10-12 C R Egerton 146 —
39 13-412 Deutschland211F 7 10-12 W P Mullins 146 137 160
40 22d133- Louping D´Ainay496 11 10-12 F-M Cottin 146 —
41 3391-0 Character Building63 10 10-11 J J Quinn 145 —
42 0-5260 Chelsea Harbour133 10 10-11 Thomas Mullins 145 153 163
43 2U-301 Dooneys Gate76 9 10-11 W P Mullins 145 157 158
44 -285P9 Gone To Lunch63 10 10-11 J Scott 145 171 174
45 116-6P Kornati Kid103 8 10-11 P J Hobbs 145 149 150
46 /144-P State Of Play133 10 10-11 Evan Williams 145 —
47 0-1218 Ellerslie George77 10 10-10 Nick Mitchell 144 137 166
48 12139- Follow The Plan396 7 10-10 Oliver McKiernan 144 —
49 5-1552 Jayo77 7 10-10 W P Mullins 144 146 167
50 11U36F Royal County Star120 11 10-10 A J Martin 144 143 169
51 P-4P15 Ballyfitz103 10 10-9 N A Twiston-Davies 143 167 170
52 743545 Conna Castle69 11 10-9 James Joseph Mangan 143 123 167
53 23-15P Equus Maximus79 10 10-9 W P Mullins 143 128 164
54 2P5-01 Eric´s Charm126 12 10-9 O Sherwood 143 112 169
55 2/7-79 King Johns Castle77 11 10-9 A L T Moore 143 149 159
56 2-3954 Ollie Magern56 12 10-9 N A Twiston-Davies 143 134 177
57 30-37U Arbor Supreme79 8 10-8 W P Mullins 142 165 168
58 3-635P Cane Brake102 11 10-8 T J Taaffe 142 —
59 126-23 Kilcrea Castle77 8 10-8 Miss E C Lavelle 142 144 169
60 244/66 Lennon63 10 10-8 J Howard Johnson 142 157 165
61 2P-253 Maljimar120 10 10-8 Nick Williams 142 147 169
62 1P025/ New Alco717 9 10-8 Ferdy Murphy 142 —
63 F-1FU8 Bible Lord63 9 10-7 Andrew Turnell 141 110 164
64 01-4U5 Irish Raptor126 11 10-7 N A Twiston-Davies 141 97 148
65 /6220- Mr Pointment406 11 10-7 Paul Murphy 141 —
66 -951FP Parsons Pistol69 8 10-7 Noel Meade 141 140 162
67 0-3301 Piraya56 7 10-7 D E Pipe 141 166 166
68 -91247 Razor Royale63 8 10-7 N A Twiston-Davies 141 154 171
69 3-9231 The Package120 7 10-7 D E Pipe 141 156 166
70 1-735U Hello Bud103 12 10-6 N A Twiston-Davies 140 151 167
71 1314/5 Iris De Balme63 10 10-6 S Curran 140 —
72 P6-142 Palypso De Creek77 7 10-6 C E Longsdon 140 164 168
73 P/11-1 Trust Fund339 12 10-6 R Barber 140 —
74 /32-31 Abbeybraney122 9 10-5 J Howard Johnson 139 122 158
75 PP/05- Cerium371 9 10-5 Paul Murphy 139 —
76 3/52-P Flintoff103 9 10-5 Miss Venetia Williams 139 —
77 1PF-50 Parsons Legacy119 12 10-5 P J Hobbs 139 91 138
78 6/33P5 Royal Rosa80 11 10-5 J Howard Johnson 139 82 151
79 F-26C2 Silver Birch69 13 10-5 Gordon Elliott 139 133 155
80 F9-226 Coe103 8 10-4 Mrs S J Smith 138 141 166
81 11-544 Glenfinn Captain56 11 10-4 T J Taaffe 138 107 154
82 -3PP46 Knowhere70 12 10-4 N A Twiston-Davies 138 140 174
83 25-056 Oodachee66 11 10-4 C F Swan 138 132 143
84 4F1311 Whinstone Boy65 9 10-4 James Joseph Mangan 138 143 164
85 P83-47 Faasel290 9 10-3 D E Pipe 137 110 152
86 -91233 Mumbles Head63 9 10-3 P Bowen 137 132 165
87 1C49P- Officier De Reserve392 8 10-3 Miss Venetia Williams 137 —
88 56-232 Sizing Australia120 8 10-3 Henry De Bromhead 137 147 160
89 1/P6-4 Trabolgan120 12 10-3 N J Henderson 137 154 164
90 15-370 Chief Dan George70 10 10-2 James Moffatt 136 129 164
91 111P20 Duers105 8 10-2 Paul Magnier 136 146 158
92 81-1F0 Ballytrim79 9 10-1 W P Mullins 135 58 166
93 0-8U87 Offshore Account77 10 10-1 C F Swan 135 142 151
94 /P228P Pak Jack104 10 10-1 R T Phillips 135 156 161
95 1-63F3 Boychuk119 9 10-0 P J Hobbs 134 161 172
96 6/4-54 Kings Advocate76 10 10-0 T J Taaffe 134 150 159
97 3F-116 Treacle139 9 10-0 T J Taaffe 134 163 166
98 45-261 Galant Nuit147 6 9-13 Ferdy Murphy 133 145 161
99 08F421 Anothercoppercoast77 10 9-12 Paul A Roche 132 121 165
100 1F4-22 Belon Gale125 7 9-12 J Howard Johnson 132 147 163
101 5-8600 Pomme Tiepy79 7 9-12 W P Mullins 132 145 166
102 721-72d Merigo56 9 9-10 A Parker 130 63 90
103 414-90 Chiaro63 8 9-9 P J Hobbs 129 93 163
104 6-53PP Kilbeggan Blade63 11 9-9 T R George 129 146 161
105 4-U335 According To John63 10 9-8 N G Richards 128 126 159
106 -512P8 Lorum Leader63 9 9-7 Dr R D P Newland 127 100 162
107 14/9PP Old Benny63 9 9-7 A King 127 —
108 42/8PP Over The Creek57 11 9-4 D E Pipe 124 —
109 53-346 Cossack Dancer154 12 9-1 M Bradstock 121 102 154
110 3P/FP5 Wee Robbie56 10 9-0 N J Gifford 120 139 146
111 /P6P-4 Offaly57 9 8-12 Mrs P Townsley 118 — 64
112 40UP-P Star De Mohaison63 9 M Todhunter — -1
#385
February 16th, 2010 12:36
Indeed stayer, I backed II last yr, ran well but didn’t stay, no runs, its INSANE.
Feel sorry for COD. SOP gets away with it.
So WOA instantly withdrawn?!
Mouse is such a hot head, if he’d just considered it looked at the rest etc. or maybe owners already decided, got cold feet because of last years tragedy. Either way missed opportunity there definately.
Seigemaster 11-3, BA 11-6 haa haa ha!
off to lie down
#386
February 16th, 2010 12:42
At first glance I think Arbor Supreme looks well in. Going have to study further though.
#387
February 16th, 2010 12:48
RACING NEWS Select a Racecard 1.50 Folkestone 2.00 Southwell 2.10 Newcastle 2.20 Folkestone 2.30 Southwell 2.40 Newcastle 2.50 Folkestone 3.00 Southwell 3.10 Newcastle 3.20 Folkestone 3.30 Southwell 3.40 Newcastle 3.50 Folkestone 4.00 Southwell 4.10 Newcastle 4.20 Folkestone 4.30 Southwell 4.40 Newcastle 4.50 Folkestone 5.00 Southwell 5:25 Philadelphia Park 5:50 Philadelphia Park 6:15 Philadelphia Park 6:30 Louisiana Downs 6:38 Philadelphia Park 6:52 Louisiana Downs 7:04 Philadelphia Park 7:15 Louisiana Downs 7:25 Sunland Park 7:30 Turf Paradise 7:31 Philadelphia Park 7:38 Louisiana Downs 7:49 Sunland Park 7:56 Philadelphia Park 7:58 Turf Paradise 8:01 Louisiana Downs 8:13 Sunland Park 8:22 Philadelphia Park 8:24 Louisiana Downs 8:28 Turf Paradise 8:37 Sunland Park 8:47 Louisiana Downs 8:50 Philadelphia Park 8:56 Turf Paradise 9:01 Sunland Park 9:10 Louisiana Downs 9:16 Philadelphia Park 9:24 Turf Paradise 9:25 Sunland Park 9:33 Louisiana Downs 9:49 Sunland Park 9:53 Turf Paradise 9:56 Louisiana Downs 10:13 Sunland Park 10:19 Louisiana Downs 10:22 Turf Paradise 10:37 Sunland Park 10:42 Louisiana Downs 10:51 Turf Paradise 11:01 Sunland Park 11:05 Louisiana Downs 11:20 Turf Paradise 11:25 Sunland Park 11:28 Louisiana Downs 11:49 Sunland Park Today’s Meetings Folkestone Newcastle Southwell Fast Results Folkestone Newcastle Southwell
Notre Pere – carries joint top-weight.
DREAPER ACCEPTS TOP WEIGHT
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Jim Dreaper (Notre Pere 11st 10lb): “It doesn’t matter what we think about it, that’s the weight they are going to carry.
“That’s more or less what we expected. We’ll put up with it.
“The National is one of the options. He was disappointing the last day (in the Irish Hennessy) but the run of the race didn’t go for him.
“If it’s heavy ground he might still line-up in the Gold Cup, if it’s good ground he won’t
“As far as the National is concerned the ground doesn’t matter as much, running four and a half miles on heavy ground isn’t fair on any horse.
“I would hope he’d take to the National fences but you never actually really know until you try.
“He appears to be in good form and he may go to Fairyhouse (for the Bobbyjo Chase) on Saturday.”
Mouse Morris (War Of Attrition 11st 1lb): “‘I think with that weight they are basically saying they don’t want us to run.
“‘If Albertas Run is rated 164 and we are getting 9lb, that means he’s rating us 155.
“I entered our horse in a handicap chase at Sandown the other week and they rated him 149 so I don’t know how they’ve come up with 11st 1lb to be honest.
“We’ve decided we’re not going to go as we won’t be going where we’re not wanted and I don’t know how he can justify that weight.
“The plan now would be to go straight to the World Hurdle and he’ll then probably have his last run at the Punchestown Festival in the Guinness Gold Cup or the big staying hurdle race.
Donald McCain (Cloudy Lane 11st 3lb): “I would have preferred a pound or two less, but I’m not really surprised and it’s pretty much what I expected.
“We just have to hope one of those at the top runs now, so we’ll see what happens.
“He’s entered over hurdles at Haydock this weekend and he could go there as he’s in good nick and it would just keep him ticking over before he goes for the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster (March 6).”
Charlie Mann (Air Force One 10st 12lb): “I’m delighted with that and I was thinking anything under 11st would be a bonus.
“He ran really well at Newbury the other day and has come out of the race in super form.
“The plan now would be to either find a race at Cheltenham for him or maybe go to Doncaster for the Grimthorpe.
Tom Taaffe (Cane Brake 10st 8lb, Glenfinn Captain 10st 4lb, Treacle 10st, Kings Advocate 10st): “Cane Brake has been trained for the race and we’ll continue to look that way for him.
“I’d quite like Treacle to get into the race as well but I’m not sure if he will off 10st, we’ll just have to see.
“I guess if he doesn’t we’ll have a look at the Irish National for him.
“Kings Advocate would be a possible if he gets in and I can’t rule it in or out for Glenfinn Captain as we were disappointed with his run at Gowran the other day and we’re still trying to get to the bottom of that.”
Jimmy Mangan (Conna Castle 10st 9lb, Whinstone Boy 10st 4lb): “‘Conna Castle beat Big Zeb in the Power Gold Cup and he’s been high in the weights ever since.
“He’ll be having a run at Thurles next week and I’d be looking for a big run to prove that he deserves to take his chance in the National.
“Whinstone Boy should get in off that weight. He’s been a great servant and is in terrific form. He loves heavy going so I’d be looking for the ground to be like when Red Marauder won, but to be fair to Liverpool, they always have it nice and juicy so I’d be happy enough.
“You won’t see him in the near future but he might have one more run, possibly over hurdles, before the National.”
Jeremy Scott (Gone To Lunch 10st 11lb): “I’d be happy enough with that and we just want him to bounce back to a bit of form.
“He was a bit disappointing at Sandown last time but we found he has one or two little muscle issues and the ground was probably soft enough for him that day.
“He’s entered at Wincanton this weekend but we’ll see what the weather does and he might go there if he gets a bit of decent ground.
“He’ll probably either go to Aintree or to Ayr for the Scottish National, but it really depends how the horse is nearer the time.
“If he goes to Aintree, it will all come down to the jumping.’”
Howard Johnson (Lennon 10st 8lb, Abbeybraney 10st 5lb, Royal Rosa 10st 5lb, Belon Gale 9st 12lb): ‘”The National has been the plan for Abbeybraney all season, which is why I haven’t run him since Hexham in December.
“I’m very happy with his weight as long as he gets in and I can start getting stuck into him now and get him a run somewhere.
“He’s still a novice so he’s got plenty of options at Cheltenham and places like that.
“Royal Rosa has a great weight as well and I think it would just light him up going round there, while Lennon could run as well.
“I’ve always thought he was a stayer but he’s been running well over shorter trips.
“He ran well at Doncaster the other day but he’ll improve half a stone for that and as he jumps so well, he could give someone a right spin round Aintree.
“Belon Gale probably won’t run and he wouldn’t get in anyway.”
Charlie Swan (One Cool Cookie 11st 1lb, Oodachee 10st 4lb, Offshore Account 10st 1lb): “One Cool Cookie is only rated 140. How the handicapper has come to his conclusion I don’t know.
“Oodachee is probably badly handicapped but he might get into the race. Offshore Account is nicely in and ran a good race in the National last year.
“I’m happy with the weight given to those two, but for One Cool Cookie I’m a bit disappointed.
“Oodachee and Offshore are both in the Racing Post Chase. I’ll just see what the entries are like. They might go there is the ground was good.
“One Cool Cookie could probably run in the Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse on Saturday. I’ll make up my mind after that which way we go.”
#388
February 16th, 2010 13:01
Venetia Williams (Mon Mome 11st 7lb, Flintoff 10st 5lb, Officier De Reserve 10st 3lb): “Phil has put us up 2lb off our normal rating, which is pretty much what I expected.
“In years gone by horses would have had to carry more than that.
“He’ll run in the Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock this Saturday all being well and we’d be hoping for a good run and then all roads lead to Aintree.
“The Gold Cup is an option. He ran in the Midlands National last year and that would be an option too.
“Flintoff would have a chance of running and he’ll probably start off in the Midlands National.
“Officier De Reserve is going to run this weekend but he probably won’t get a run in the National.”
John Quinn (Character Building 10st 11lb): “He should get a run and he’ll have a nice racing weight.
“He seems in good form and all being well, he’ll run at Cheltenham (Kim Muir).”
Richard Lee (Le Beau Bai 10st 13lb): “You always want less weight but I’m happy enough.
“He goes to Haydock on Saturday for the Blue Square Gold Cup but he is ground dependant for Aintree.
“I probably wouldn’t run him if it’s better than soft but one of his owners is the chairman of Aintree, so I may have my hand forced!”
Charlie Longsdon (Palypso De Creek 10st 6lb): “Phil Smith said he’d try to help us get in after his good run in the Becher Chase.
“He’s been put up four or 5lb and we’re still going to have to sweat slightly to see if we’re going to get a run.
“He’ll either go for the Eider Chase at Newcastle or if it’s too soft, he’ll go for the Kim Muir.”
David Pipe (Madison Du Berlais 11st 10lb, Our Vic 11st 8lb, Comply Or Die 11st 5lb, Pablo Du Charmil 11st 2lb, Seven Is My Number 10st 13lb, Piraya 10st 7lb, The Package 10st 7lb, Faasel 10st 3lb, Over The Creek 9st 4lb): “Comply Or Die has been dropped 1lb and has a fair enough weight.
“It’s been the plan all season for him and he’s in great form. He’ll either run at Cheltenham or go straight to the National.
“Madison Du Berlais has a realistic weight as he likes flat tracks.
“He’s in at Wincanton on Saturday and in the Racing Post Chase and he may go for one of those.
“Pablo Du Charmil had a nasty fall at Cheltenham but all being well he’ll go straight to Aintree.
“Our Vic has a lot of weight and isn’t getting any younger, but is in fantastic form and will go to Haydock on Saturday.
“Piraya has a chance of getting in and his owner Terry Neill would love to have a runner.
“Seven Is My Number has a fair enough weight and he’ll appreciate better ground than last time, while The Package could be interesting off 10st 7lb.
“The others probably won’t get in.”
Jimmy Moffatt (Chief Dan George 10st 2lb): “That weight couldn’t be more perfect from anybody’s point of view, but there’s a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and then.
“It’s a superb racing weight but at this moment it looks like it will be tough getting in the race.
“He’s a careful, steady jumper and we wouldn’t mind a crack at it if everything was right at the time.”
Ferdy Murphy (New Alco 10st 8lb, Galant Nuit 9st 13lb):
“Galant Nuit won’t get in but he’s a real horse for the future.
“New Alco was going to run at Doncaster the other week but that was called off and I’ve taken him out of Haydock at the weekend as the ground will be bottomless.
“We’ll give him a run in the William Hill Trophy at Cheltenham and he’ll then go to Aintree.
“His weight looks fine and I think the race will suit him as he’s a classy little horse and I don’t think he’s ever fallen in his life.”
Colin McBratney (Ballyholland 11st): “I thought he’d be off around 10st 6lb, 10st 7lb, but at least we’re sure of getting in the race.
“He’s come out his last race in Naas well and he runs again there in a chase on March 7. Fingers crossed we’ll get him there in one piece.
“That will be his last run – it’s five weeks before the National – and Andrew McNamara has committed himself to riding him at Aintree.
“You never know if they will take to the fences until the day, but he’s a very brave horse and I just hope the ground comes a bit drier for him.”
Bob Buckler (Niche Market 11st 4lb): “He was still gaining on Denman turning in on Saturday and even Tony McCoy was surprised he was still there.
“He kept on galloping and got a little lonely in front. It is one of those unfortunate things that he got beat but he ran a bloody good race.
“He has speed and ability and if you look at the credentials you need in a National horse, he has them all.
“I knew he would end up around the weight he is, although in your dream world you always hope he may get couple of pounds less.
“The weight puts him in the race well, but you do need a bit of luck as well.
“At one stage we were going to leave him in the Gold Cup and whether we should have done after Saturday, who knows?
“He has always shown us that he is a National horse and I won’t get many like him in my lifetime.
“To have a live chance in the National is amazingly satisfying but the worrying side is to keep the horse at his best for the day. You wouldn’t want a setback two weeks before that would mean you are chasing your tail.
“Good to soft ground will be ideal for him. He wouldn’t want it fast and will cope with good.”
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#389
February 16th, 2010 13:03
Interesting reading – especially the comments about Cane Brake and Gone to Lunch.
#390
February 16th, 2010 13:34
Wow how compressed might this be if one of the top wts stays in. DP seemed to suggest MDB could well take his chance…
Ive ditched NP out of hand. I had mentioned Ballyholland a few weeks back…progressive sort but maybe 3-4 lbs too much.
The last 5 Irish winners were all 138-144 so KJC suddenly looking very good.
The Louping D’Ainey looks v v interesting. 2nd bt 1 1/2l (but disq for weighing in light…but Deano Gallagher was jock so perhaps he was floating on the waccy baccy!!) in the 29f Grande S/C du Paris on v soft….and has won a Grade 2… and all form seems to be on soft….if it rains this might be a live one…
Thoughts?
#391
February 16th, 2010 13:36
Also DA and NM …maybe 3-4 lbs too much??
#392
February 16th, 2010 13:49
I had the same thoughts about Luping D’Ainey Nick on seeing that form, but he hasnt run since Nov 08 so can only be on the watchlist at best for now.
#393
February 16th, 2010 13:52
OK then, top 6 post weights;
6pts Hello Bud
5pts Gone to Lunch
4pts Snowy Morning
3pts Dream Alliance
2pts Cane Brake
1pt could be any of 6 here, but ill go with Mr Pointment
Making the table;
7 Gone to Lunch
6 Iris De Balme
6 Hello Bud
5 Snowy Morning
5 Arbor Supreme
4 Royal County Star
3 Mr Pointment
2 Cane Brake
#394
February 16th, 2010 13:54
Cane Brake 6pts
I’ll sort the rest out later Showlad
#395
February 16th, 2010 14:00
Anyone see any comments from Phillip Hobbs anywhere? TIA
#396
February 16th, 2010 14:04
How much longer is the 40′s going to hold with Snowy Morning, off 10-13, 2LB lower than when he was 3rd in 2008, 9LB lower than his run last year when he finished 8th….class horse, good weight this year even allowing for lets say 3LB rise come race day, proven over fences loves the course…..i am beginning to think that it could be 3rd time lucky!!!!
#397
February 16th, 2010 14:15
Puzzled – it’s already gone on Betfair.
I’m pretty sure I had the last of it!
I wouldn’t get too excited about him yet though. The 3rd was on genuine good ground, and I fear he will need that to stay the trip, because stamina isn’t his forte in my view.
#398
February 16th, 2010 14:27
Cheers DE.
Yes noted L D’A hadnt run for over a year and only appears to have the GN entry.
How far down do we think the cut will be(70…75…80?).
Trust Fund too old at 12? Might get some ew if we reckon down to 75 might get a run.
#399
February 16th, 2010 14:32
Also Mouse Morris has taken his bat&ball home then re WOA.
Do we think PS is saying ‘look run em in hurdles and they run well and I’ll still give em what they deserve in the National’…
Good on him if he has…as I am of the opinion that running a GN horse over hurdles is close to ‘schooling in public’….
#400
February 16th, 2010 14:33
Top 70 is usually safe.
Anything below there and you are risking it. Guess you have to balance the risk with the attraction of the price.
Below 80 is certainly a no-no in my eyes, at least until the 1st decs are out.
In my view, 10_05 is looking the most likely bottom weight at the moment, which would mean Whinestone Boy, amongst others, missing out.
#401
February 16th, 2010 14:38
Ty again DE. Yes WB was one of my fancies but he might benefit from another season and worth a good long look for 2011.
Still ‘hot’ on DA?
#402
February 16th, 2010 14:56
Dont think I ever was!!
I fancied him, had the tiniest of nibbles pre weights at 30 on Betfair, and will just sit on that as the smallest of savers (just above break even if he wins)
Was my intention to have my main bet on him if he had 11 stone or thereabouts.
#403
February 16th, 2010 15:11
Agree that 10’05 looks likely bottom weight, but can’t have any degree of certainty around that yet. So with potential withdrawals at the head of the field, I’ll be limiting it to 10’12 – 10’07 for the initial consideration – one hell of a compressed filed, 34 horses in that 6lb range!
Hope that 10’06 makes the cut – Hello Bud would be laughing, surely?
#404
February 16th, 2010 15:26
I hope so Gammers, I hope so!! He’s my biggest winner at the moment.
I know this year there are less entries, and a few big names meaning plenty of horses with talent are on a lower mark than they otherwise would be, but i’d be amazed if Hello Bud didnt make the cut.
He’s number 68 by my list. Surely it can’t go that low??
Surely….
#405
February 16th, 2010 15:36
interesting that HB has gone out across the board today, borderline getting in I suppose with 10-6 ha! but one that phils not fiddled, so fair chance, still not convinced he’s good enough, lets not let this weights business skew our opinions too much. I would like to see him improve his finish in some shorter races before I consider a bet on him for sure.
#406
February 16th, 2010 15:38
Hi all – just wondering if anyone knows what number the cut stopped at last year?
Like Daniel, I’m sweating on 10-6 getting in but for Iris de Balme. I know it went down to 10-5 last year but how many entrants from the original weights did that represent? If anyone has info for previous years would be interested to hear that too.
Was really taken with IdB’s hurdles reappearance the other week and quite fancy him to take COD’s route with an Eider/GN double.
#407
February 16th, 2010 15:49
The only problem I have with Hello Bud is that he likes to run from the front…
But I suppose if you are in front, then at least you have less chance of being brought down by something else!
I worry that if he tries to front run at Aintree, with the pace he will have to go to do it, he will run out of puff.
Im hoping the jock has a bit of sense and drops him in with the leading pack, rather than trying to make all himself, preferably going round the outside like Comply or Die did!
#408
February 16th, 2010 16:13
theres alot to like in the no.69 to 89 bracket.
Hope Abbeybraney gets in at no.74, one I had in my thoughts over a yr ago as a future contender. Not shown much progress, been out for a yr with injury? still running as a novice, 2 runs 1 win at 25f. in G3s so far on comeback, not too encouraging I suppose, always trainer GN aim, still fancies him, Thoughts please!
Whinstone looks very dodgy and Trabolgan dream is over really i think, team didn’t help him in and nor did the phil.
#409
February 16th, 2010 16:22
Thinking about all the prep we’ve done on the assumed OR’s/weights, it’s like being back at school and handing in a ‘great’ essay to Eng.Lit teacher who looks at it and says,’it’s one of the best things I’ve ever read, but I didn’t ask you to write about that’ and puts a big red line through it and you end up with E minus!
My friend said the handicappper didn’t just kick the Irish entrants in the nuts, he took a run up!!!
#410
February 16th, 2010 16:58
Agreed that the Irish have been dealt a bum deal again – I think Mr Smith should remember the idea of a handicap is that all the horses should finish in a line. It isn’t “oh, I better make sure an Irish horse doesn’t win again” because by that logic, if the next two wins go to british yards, the last 5 will have and he would, by his logic, have to punish the british trained horses!!
That said, its a damn tough job and he does a better job of it than I ever could.
What do people think of Air Force One’s chances of STAYING THE TRIP?
He’s always struck me as a horse lacking a bit of pace, so I wonder if the marathon will suit him?
He’s undoubtedly well treated (same mark as his Hennessy 2nd to Madison Du Berlais) and whilst he hasn’t been setting the world alight since, he’s been mixing in the top company and not exactyl been disgraced most of the time.
He makes a few jumping mistakes, but he always stays on his feet.
And I know he is being aimed at the race.
What do people think?
#411
February 16th, 2010 17:14
I make it that those with a touch of class with a nice weight are in no order:
Air Force One – Hennessy 2nd
Character Building – Cheltenham handicap (amateur race admittedly)
Cane Brake – Paddy Power & Troytown, GC 5th
State Of Play – Hennessy
King John’s Castle – 2nd GN
In between:
Royal County Star
Plodders with nice weight:
Arbor Supreme
Hello Bud
Iris De Balme
The bottom three should stay well but I wonder whether they are really good enough
The others should be good enough – question marks over whether some might stay but all need to show some proper form (SOP you just don’t know what he’ll be like – trainer made bullish noises last year but he did about the Hennessy too and about the much over-hyped Cappa Bleu)
Of those with big weights Mon Mome stands out and My Will too
#412
February 16th, 2010 17:21
Can’t find an in-form horse from this season with a nice weight…
#413
February 16th, 2010 17:28
Pablo
Cane Brake KJC and RCS fit the same profile as the last 5 Irish winners (138-144) although if we go back to Bobbyjo the field not as good quality throughout and ‘only’ 36 ran (how things change huh!?).
I dunno if COD 2lb less than Mon Mome for what a 12-15l beating….? Tempting for a place…and is COD’s target…
#414
February 16th, 2010 17:29
I was happy with the weights of my picks Snowy, My Will and Hello Bud.
I think Bud has got a very good weight, Snowys is quite good aswell. My Will weight is fair but not great. They will probably go up a little.
How about Mr Pointment on 10-07! Does anyone know if he will def run?
#415
February 16th, 2010 17:57
Still in shock and nee some time to digest the weights. But one things for sure NM, DA have an impossible task. Like many finding it difficult to find a runner with no more than 10.1O who looks top notch. HB maybe, GTL probably the best but his trainer just sits of the fence will he – wont he?? and AS who needs a win soon. Will have to have a good look at CB and RCS etc.
If GTL runs he is the outstanding choice I think.
#416
February 16th, 2010 17:58
Those 3lbs Gone To Lunch lost look priceless now.
TOP6
1 Air Force One
2 Gone To Lunch
3 Snowy Morning
4 Arbor Supreme
5 Dream Alliance
6 Mon Mome
6
#417
February 16th, 2010 18:00
Does CB have a run before the national? Can’t find it via RP.
#418
February 16th, 2010 18:01
12 Gone to Lunch
9 Snowy Morning
8 Arbor Supreme
6 Air Force One
6 Iris De Balme
6 Hello Bud
4 Royal County Star
3 Mr Pointment
2 Dream Alliance
2 Cane Brake
1 Mon Mome
#419
February 16th, 2010 18:43
Systemsman- I know what you mean, looking for something 10-10 or less. But those on 10-5 are more than likely to be bottom weight, 10-8 on the day if Mon Mome top, so 10-5 +12(19/19) gives us 11-3(could be 11-6 on day though) lbs more than 11st are hard to lug so I think anything given 10-13(possibly 11-2 on the day) definitely has a chance?
Just off the top of my list at the mo’ is Ballyfitz. After this weekend his stats could be very, very good. Best form horse of season on a lowish weight? 4th in 21f Paddy Power, 5th in 30f Welsh National, trained by a guy who takes GN seriously. Very good dosage too I reckon, suggests he could need 36f to show his best.
#420
February 16th, 2010 18:52
6 – Snowy Morning
5 – Dream Alliance
4 – Gone To Lunch
3 – Parsons Legacy
2 – Air Force One
1 – Character Building
16 Gone to Lunch
15 Snowy Morning
08 Arbor Supreme
08 Air Force One
07 Dream Alliance
06 Iris De Balme
06 Hello Bud
04 Royal County Star
03 Mr Pointment
02 Cane Brake
02 Parsons Legacy
01 Character Building
01 Mon Mome
#421
February 16th, 2010 19:11
Crisp – this may be the year that the winner carries over 11’01 to victory as you suggest
However just as there is the within 12 lb of bottom weight stat (19/19) – there is also the getting at least 10 lb from top weight stat (19/19)
It’s all relative weight stuff after all
With top weight a maximum of 158 we are still within the boundaries of the past 10 Nationals (top weight 153 to 158) – so by chance of top weight Systemsman’s usual OR ranges should in theory hold firm
#422
February 16th, 2010 19:18
…and it remains to be seen how mant horses run with OR 149+ – we had 14 last year and 25 entered this year
#423
February 16th, 2010 19:45
hi all, anybody but me feel state of play has a good chance off 5lbs lower than last year.trainer knows this horse inside out,and knows it only goes well fresh,as last year.with that firmly in mind he a’int going to fit the usual trends of prep runs etc.
#424
February 16th, 2010 19:46
I think BFT has been very well treated. Anyone else agree?
I am just glad I held my nerve on sunday and didnt back WOA. That said wouldn’t put it past Mouse to do another U-turn.
Definitely will back SM at those weights.
Cane Brake has shot into my reckoning on now.
My initial list has been shot to pieces with only SM remaining.
Too much weight for Niche Market and Black Apalachi.
#425
February 16th, 2010 19:47
SOP was one I backed last year. Is the plan to go straight to Aintree?
#426
February 16th, 2010 20:03
certainly AFOs become more interesting today and his run on saturday I think said it all. Jumping always ‘funny’ looks novicey overjumping mostly, but no real errors, improved as race went on has a rather high action but staying on at end, so maybe a case for the further he goes theory..
just feels like grabbing at straws at moment doesn’t it.. good weight – no form..
can fresh horses win this far!? SOP is better off, but place horses don’t win, right.
Just watched Trust Funds win in the foxhunters he looks SO good, ideal 10-06, but guess what, hasn’t run since may, anyone have any news on him?
#427
February 16th, 2010 20:13
Yeah Giant, SOP goes straight to aintree. He is on my list on my blog.
http://spankmydonkey.blogspot.com/
#428
February 16th, 2010 20:15
Will not post my 1 to 6 until I have had all tomorrow to digest and review – back to the library!!
#429
February 16th, 2010 20:19
Do you ignore the stat that says a number of runs before then? I have adjusted it somewhat this year because of weather, but none or one at the end of last year? Not sure. Thoughts?
#430
February 16th, 2010 20:28
Just in case anyone wants to know – my initial anti-post bets (no order).
Looking at weight only:
Hello Bud 10.06 (10.09 with +3lbs)- winning weight
Gone To Lunch 10.11 (11.00)-winning weight
Niche Market 11.04 (11.07)- unwinnable weight!
Dream Alliance 11.03 (11.06)-unwinnable weight? (unless its within 12lbs of bottom weight – its possible).
Arbor Supreme 10.08 (10.11)-winnable weight
Church island – Non runner
So 3/6 on winnable weights
1/6 doubtful (but still an ouside chance)
1/6 no chance
1/6 Non runner
Could be worse I guess.
#431
February 16th, 2010 21:03
Well Well Well – my initial top 6 is in Tatters . Right lets try again …
1. Royal County Star
2. Gone to Lunch –
3. Hello Bud
4. Maljimar
5. Le Beau Bai
6. Ballyfitz –
21 Gone to Lunch
15 Snowy Morning
10 Hello Bud
10 Royal County Star
08 Arbor Supreme
08 Air Force One
07 Dream Alliance
06 Iris De Balme
03 Mr Pointment
03 Maljimar
02 Cane Brake
02 Parsons Legacy
02 Le Beau Bai
01 Ballyfitz
01 Character Building
01 Mon Mome
#432
February 16th, 2010 22:32
My Top 6:
6pts Maljimar
5pts Royal County Star
4pts Backstage
3pts Snowy Morning
2pts Kilcrea Castle
1pt My Will
Running totals:
21 Gone to Lunch
18 Snowy Morning
15 Royal County Star
10 Hello Bud
09 Maljimar
08 Arbor Supreme
08 Air Force One
07 Dream Alliance
06 Iris De Balme
04 Backstage
03 Mr Pointment
02 Cane Brake
02 Parsons Legacy
02 Le Beau Bai
02 Kilcrea Castle
01 Ballyfitz
01 Character Building
01 Mon Mome
01 My Will
#433
February 16th, 2010 23:08
6 pts Cane Brake
5 pts Gone To Lunch
4 pts Royal County Star
3 pts Snowy Morning
2 pts Hello Bud
1 pt Air Force One
Running totals:
26 Gone to Lunch
21 Snowy Morning
19 Royal County Star
12 Hello Bud
09 Maljimar
09 Air Force One
08 Arbor Supreme
08 Cane Brake
07 Dream Alliance
06 Iris De Balme
04 Backstage
03 Mr Pointment
02 Parsons Legacy
02 Le Beau Bai
02 Kilcrea Castle
01 Ballyfitz
01 Character Building
01 Mon Mome
01 My Will
#434
February 16th, 2010 23:25
Ginger McCain on his soapbox again (not in my day etc etc yawn yawn)…from Sporting Life…
McCain, who entered folklore by training Red Rum to win the National three times in the 1970s and struck again with Amberleigh House in 2004, is not a man known to mince his words.
He said: “Last year, when I saw all those horses coming back onto the racecourse at the second-last I thought, ‘It’s not Liverpool’.
“You are eliminating the Aintree factor by making it softer, not making it better.
“They should have a top weight of 12st and add more fences – you don’t make it to the top of Everest by taking 10,000 feet off the top.
“It is all about good horses and brave men.”
In response, Sir Peter O’Sullevan quipped: “There are very few men who can talk utter rubbish more engagingly than Ginger.”
Classic stuff from the voice of racing!
#435
February 17th, 2010 06:56
To be honest, I tend to agree with what Ginger has had to say there. Although I wouldn’t put it quite as bold as he has.
Last year didn’t feel like a National to me. Top weight should be 11st 12lbs and the thrills and spills are what the race is all about. Getting your horse there well handicapped and hoping for the luck in running. Whereas now it doesn’t matter too much on both of those factors. It’s in danger of becoming too much like any regular Saturday handicap chase.
So I can understand what he is saying in his piece there, and I’m only in my early twenties!
#436
February 17th, 2010 08:44
I’ve found four GN winners since 1960 that had 3 or less preps, 1st September onwards, and they all won one of those preps. Can’t see Air Force One getting more than 3- trainer quoted in the press that he will run Grimthorpe chase at Doncaster and then a run at Chelt. Fest. (doesn’t say if it will be Gold Cup or not though he’s entered).
Quite worried that my top3 haven’t won a handicap chase and they’ve only ran in 10 between them!
#437
February 17th, 2010 09:07
If Mon Mome ends up as top weight half the field could carry 11st.
State of Play is number 46, and a 3lb rise would see him carry 11st.
#438
February 17th, 2010 09:16
WOA would still be my no.1, but we have to assume he won’t run.
My new top 6. Iris De Balme finds himself cursed with my 6pts by default really
6 – Iris De Balme
5 – Air Force One
4 – Arbor Supreme
3 – Character Building
2 – Cane Brake
1 – Comply or Die
Running totals:
26 Gone to Lunch
21 Snowy Morning
19 Royal County Star
14 Air Force One
12 Hello Bud
12 Arbor Supreme
12 Iris De Balme
10 Cane Brake
09 Maljimar
07 Dream Alliance
04 Backstage
04 Character Building
03 Mr Pointment
02 Parsons Legacy
02 Le Beau Bai
02 Kilcrea Castle
01 Ballyfitz
01 Mon Mome
01 My Will
01 Comply or Die
#439
February 17th, 2010 09:17
Can I ask what’ everyone’s opinion on Backstage, pricewise’s selection for 2pts.
Mine is an unlikely winner.
#440
February 17th, 2010 09:33
Mr Segal obvioulsy knows his horses, but I do wonder where he gets these from sometimes.
Anybody point me to a single piece of form that suggests he can win this??!!?
Anybody….
Suits me fine – just means his price will shrink whilst others hold.
#441
February 17th, 2010 09:54
According to Tom’s article in the RP today he was going to tip up WOA but Mouse Morris’ tantrum scuppered his plans. Looks to me that in the absence of a plan B he has turned to a National winning trainer with a horse that has been confirmed as targetting the race hence followers should at least get a run for their money. To be fair to Pricewise I don’t know who I would tip up this morning if I were him. With the weights handed out to NM and DA, and Mouse Morris all but ruling WOA out, we were all scratching our heads a bit yesterday!
Anyway, no, I don’t see Backstage as the winner. He’s been given a rating of 148 for winning a summer race at Ffos Las and his form up until then was pretty indifferent. Summer jumping is pretty poor so that seems a harsh hike in the weights to me.
#442
February 17th, 2010 09:57
I’m a bit new to horse racing and especially trying to work out handicaps! Cud someone explain why horses wud not get into race, I understand there are only 40 runners so is it a case of the best 40 horses that remain in the race get in, ie top 40 weighted horses remaining. I’d be really grateful for anyone assistance with this cheers lads.
#443
February 17th, 2010 10:07
Billymag,
You are basically correct. The final declaration stage is 10am on the Thursday before the big race. In recent years many more than 40 horses have been declared at this stage and what happens is that the top 40 in the handicap get to race, the next 4 get to be reserves and the rest of the horses “miss the cut”. Where there are one or more horses that share the weight where the 40 cut-off is, the handicapper looks at official ratings on the day to decide which horses are in and which are out.
#444
February 17th, 2010 10:07
Spot on – no explanation needed
Last year the bottom weight was officially rated (OR) 139 and the top weight was 158
Guessing game at the moment but top weight should be in the 155 to 158 range and bottom weight around 140 I would think (plus or minus a couple of pounds)
#445
February 17th, 2010 10:47
here are my top six after trainer’s ruining horses handicap marks or tantrums & phil’s meddling.
1. snowy morning
2.gone to lunch
3.hello bud
4.mr pointment
5.arbor supreme
6.iris de balme
Running totals:
31 Gone to Lunch
27 Snowy Morning
19 Royal County Star
14 Air Force One
16 Hello Bud
14 Arbor Supreme
13 Iris De Balme
10 Cane Brake
09 Maljimar
07 Dream Alliance
04 Backstage
04 Character Building
06 Mr Pointment
02 Parsons Legacy
02 Le Beau Bai
02 Kilcrea Castle
01 Ballyfitz
01 Mon Mome
01 My Will
01 Comply or Die
#446
February 17th, 2010 10:53
Has anyone been able to pin down Phil Smith’s approach to Irish trained horses this year? Before the weights we were expecting about a 3lb / 4lb penalty, plus additional penalties for strong performance in Irish National or Thyestes Chase. Now the weights are out it seems he has taken a different approach this year, and considered each Irish trained entrant in isolation, we even have some running at below their HRI chase OR. Ranges from Glennfin Captain dropped 7lbs to Sizing Australia put up 14lbs.
The compression seems to make sense once you factor in Aintree and Irish penalties – from a 7lb compression for Notre Pere off a pre compression GN adjusted OR of 165, to a 1lb compression benefit for OR 154.
Aintree penalties of 6lbs to previous years GN winner and course specialists, only 1lb to Becher Winners which looks generous, and 4lbs to Foxhunter winner. Cerium and Royal Rosa helped into the race it looks like.
So all in all, weights allocated make a lot of sense with adjustments for expected categories – just the change in approach for Irish trained that makes things unpredictable.
#447
February 17th, 2010 10:56
Good to see that Mouse Morris had no understanding of the compression at the top of the handicap yesterday – wonder if he will change his mind about withdrawing WOA after he has it explained to him? Guessing the horse won’t have been officially scratched yet…
#448
February 17th, 2010 11:11
Whilst on a strict examination of ratings, WOA has a rough deal, I would suggest that 11_01 is a nice enough weight for a GC winner!!
If he lined up, I would still fancy him off that weight.
#449
February 17th, 2010 11:15
http://www.racingpost.com/media/medi…media_id=14479
Just been watching this on RPTV.
David Pipe says Madison du Berlais is more lilely to run than not, which would mean the weights would stay as they are.
#450
February 17th, 2010 11:19
Well its going to be a along hard days work both at home and in the library. Its like some sort of crazy treasure hunt where we are starting all over again from square one and its ver difficult his year. Glad I had that late top up anti-post bet on GTL though and stayed off WOA (made up for losing CI as non runner).
Very relunctant to back anything now thats not going to run.May well wait a lot longer for one or two bets but Saturdays racing may help us all.
Will make a start by looking again at those runners on the new list plus any I think should also be there.
I think we need the collective brain power of the whole team to crack this, not sure if any one person can get it right on thier own. While I dont think NM and DA can win now I am happy to have them as my “big weights runners” should the impossible happen but we need to look much lower down the weights for the winner for sure.
A quick view (based on my thoughts/work since yesterday):
Impossible or near impossible task:
Niche Market
Tricky Trickster
Blavk Apalachi
Casey Jones
Dream Alliance
Possol
Loking very good
Hello Bud
Arbor Supreme (come on you beauty!!)
Gone to Lunch (if he runs)
Royal County Star (jumping?)
Looking OK
Snowy Morning (but the jumping?)
#451
February 17th, 2010 11:20
I know others aren’t convinced, but I dont see the weights going up at all.
I think Notre Pere is also ‘more likely than not’ to run.
#452
February 17th, 2010 11:23
I wouldn’t disagree with that list at all Systemsman, although if I could add a 4th category of ‘A good run between now and race day would make them interesting’ I would put;
Kilcrea Castle
Cane Brake
Parsons Pistol
#453
February 17th, 2010 11:24
mornin all,pablo etc,check out go racing ireland online.includes news on cane brake.and more.
#454
February 17th, 2010 11:27
…save as to say I dont think RCS is up to winning on the basis of his past couple of years form.
#455
February 17th, 2010 11:37
I dont think the weights will change either. Can see both Madison and Notre Pere lining up.
I’ve taken a look at the weights and judged by what ive read/interviews and general gut feeling, i think the cut off point could be as high as The Package on 10’7!! Would be terrible if Hello Bud and IDB were to miss the cut
Heres the list with what I consider to be liley runners highlighted in bold:
ALBERTAS RUN (IRE) 9-11-10;
MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 9-11-10;
NOTRE PERE (FR) 9-11-10;
TARANIS (FR) 9-11-09;
OUR VIC (IRE) 12-11-08;
MON MOME (FR) 10-11-07;
BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 11-11-06;
JOE LIVELY (IRE) 11-11-06;
VIC VENTURI (IRE) 10-11-06.
COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 11-11-05;
DON’T PUSH IT (IRE) 10-11-05;
IRISH INVADER (IRE) 9-11-05;
MADE IN TAIPAN (IRE) 8-11-04;
NICHE MARKET;
TRICKY TRICKSTER (IRE) 7-11-04;
CASEY JONES (IRE) 9-11-03;
CLOUDY LANE 10-11-03;
DREAM ALLIANCE 9-11-03;
NOZIC (FR) 9-11-03;
POSSOL (FR) 7-11-03;
SIEGEMASTER (IRE) 9-11-03;
MY WILL (FR) 10-11-02;
PABLO DU CHARMIL (FR) 9-11-02;
ONE COOL COOKIE (IRE) 9-11-01;
WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 11-11-01;
BACKSTAGE (FR) 8-11-00;
BALLYHOLLAND (IRE) 9-11-00;
BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 9-11-00;
PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 10-11-00;
ROULEZ COOL 7-11-00.
BERONI (IRE) 8-10-13;
CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 8-10-13;
LE BEAU BAI (FR) 7-10-13;
SEVEN IS MY NUMBER (IRE);
SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 10-10-13;
AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 8-10-12;
BIG FELLA THANKS 8-10-12;
DARKNESS 11-10-12;
DEUTSCHLAND (USA) 7-10-12;
LOUPING D’AINAY (FR) 11-10-12;
CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 10-10-11;
CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 10-10-11;
DOONEYS GATE (IRE) 9-10-11;
GONE TO LUNCH (IRE) 10-10-11;
KORNATI KID 8-10-11;
STATE OF PLAY 10-10-11;
ELLERSLIE GEORGE (IRE) 10-10-10;
FOLLOW THE PLAN (IRE) 7-10-10 ;
JAYO (FR) 7-10-10;
ROYAL COUNTY STAR (IRE) 11-10-10;
BALLYFITZ 10-10-09;
CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 11-10-09;
EQUUS MAXIMUS (IRE) 10-10-09;
ERIC’S CHARM (FR) 12-10-09;
KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 11-10-09;
OLLIE MAGERN 12-10-09;
ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 8-10-08;
CANE BRAKE (IRE) 11-10-08;
KILCREA CASTLE (IRE) 8-10-08;
LENNON (IRE) 10-10-08;
MALJIMAR (IRE) 10-10-08;
NEW ALCO (FR) 9-10-08;
BIBLE LORD (IRE) 9-10-07;
IRISH RAPTOR (IRE) 11-10-07;
MR POINTMENT (IRE) 11-10-07;
PARSONS PISTOL (IRE) 8-10-07;
PIRAYA (FR) 7-10-07;
RAZOR ROYALE (IRE) 8-10-07;
THE PACKAGE 7-10-07.
HELLO BUD (IRE) 12-10-06;
IRIS DE BALME (FR) 10-10-06;
PALYPSO DE CREEK (FR) 7-10-06;
TRUST FUND (IRE) 12-10-06;
ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 9-10-05;
CERIUM (FR) 9-10-05;
FLINTOFF (USA) 9-10-05;
PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 12-10-05;
ROYAL ROSA (FR) 11-10-05;
SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 13-10-05;
COE (IRE) 8-10-04;
GLENFINN CAPTAIN (IRE) 11-10-04;
KNOWHERE (IRE) 12-10-04;
OODACHEE 11-10-04;
WHINSTONE BOY(IRE) 9-10-04;
FAASEL (IRE) 9-10-03;
MUMBLES HEAD (IRE) 9-10-03;
OFFICIER DE RESERVE (FR) 8-10-03;
SIZING AUSTRALIA (IRE) 8-10-03;
TRABOLGAN (IRE) 12-10-03;
CHIEF DAN GEORGE (IRE) 10-10-02;
DUERS (IRE) 8-10-02;
BALLYTRIM (IRE) 9-10-01;
OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 10-10-01; P
AK JACK (FR) 10-10-01;
BOYCHUK (IRE) 9-10-00;
KINGS ADVOCATE (IRE) 10-10-00;
TREACLE (IRE) 9-10-00.
GALANT NUIT (FR) 6-9-13;
ANOTHERCOPPERCOAST (IRE) 10-9-12;
BELON GALE (IRE) 7-9-12;
POMME TIEPY (FR) 7-9-12;
MERIGO (FR) 9-9-10;
CHIARO (FR) 8-9-09;
KILBEGGAN BLADE 11-9-09;
ACCORDING TO JOHN (IRE) 10-9-08;
LORUM LEADER (IRE) 9-9-07;
OLD BENNY 9-9-07.
OVER THE CREEK 11-9-04;
COSSACK DANCER (IRE) 12-9-01;
WEE ROBBIE; OFFALY (IRE) 9-8-12.
#456
February 17th, 2010 11:38
ok so bold doesnt work on here, grrrrr!
#457
February 17th, 2010 11:40
I can sort of see why Snowy Morning has become popular but I have some doubts about this one. Off 147 he looks well handicapped compared to last year but let’s not forget that he couldn’t win this off 145 a few years ago. Although he has got round twice his jumping remains a bit sketchy and i’m not sure that he’s the stoutest stayer either.
#458
February 17th, 2010 11:44
The Stayer – You mirror my thoughts exactly, almost word for word.
He is high on my list, but he’s not perfect. As I have said elsewhere, it defies logic to put too much faith in a horse with question marks over stamina and jumping in the National!!
I think he is big value at 40/1 though – no way he will go off that price come raceday. Ive had a fair chunk on him now, with a view to laying my stake back at 20/1 or so in the week before the race.
#459
February 17th, 2010 12:35
I’ll chip in with my top 6 post weights:
6pts – State of Play
5pts – Hello Bud
4pts – Gone to Lunch
3pts – Air Force One
2pts – Arbor Supreme
1pts – Character Building
Running totals:
35 Gone to Lunch
27 Snowy Morning
21 Hello Bud
19 Royal County Star
17 Air Force One
16 Arbor Supreme
13 Iris De Balme
10 Cane Brake
09 Maljimar
07 Dream Alliance
06 State of Play
06 Mr Pointment
05 Character Building
04 Backstage
02 Parsons Legacy
02 Le Beau Bai
02 Kilcrea Castle
01 Ballyfitz
01 Mon Mome
01 My Will
01 Comply or Die
#460
February 17th, 2010 13:09
On my work today so far SM is in the top 6 or so so makes a good saver+ bet at least – he does stick all the main boxes. I have allowed him into the 30/30 stat due to his 3rd in the GN (I know its not part of it but the 30/30 stat does include experiance over the GN fences so why not 1/2/3 in the GN itself?. Still he’s not the best bet – but will say more about that later.
I would certainly like to review my points after the weekends racing.
#461
February 17th, 2010 13:10
SM – correction:
“he does TICK all the main boxes”
#462
February 17th, 2010 13:40
yep, agreed – this weekend could clear the picture quite a bit for us…
similarly it could cloudy it as well!!
Personally, ive got so many on my maybe list that I wouldn’t mind a few of them running really badly, so I can stick a line through them.
I know a few people on here won’t like this, but Arbor Supreme is one of them!!
#463
February 17th, 2010 14:04
Horses that have been backed since weights out (decimals):
Best price pre-weights; best price now; horse
26; 21; Backstage
34; 26; State Of Play
41; 34; Ballyholland
41; 34; Snowy Morning
51; 41; Casey Jones
67; 51; Air Force One
67; 51; Kilcrea Castle
#464
February 17th, 2010 14:14
Again, I throw it in to the mix…of those at the head of the market T Trickster doesn’t get many mentions but one that has zero on here (as far back as a quick scan allows!) is Possol.
Thoughts??
#465
February 17th, 2010 14:16
I understand Snowy being backed as there’s so little to get excited about just now. What a difficult National this is turning out to be. My top 6 has been sabotaged so I’ve scanned the weights and reluctantly post 6 more of whom, frankly I have little confidence in.
6 pts Gone To Lunch. Will he run, won’t he run. No date, no bet.
5 pts Ballyfitz. Brillaint hurdler schooled to a superb chaser? Doesn’t QUITE fit some trends but that may change this weekend….
4 pts Cane Brake. Can’t believe this is 3rd on my list as no win over 3 mile but best of the lightly weighted bunch, IMO.
3 pts Snowy Morning. May have a chance off a lower weight this year but I reckon he’s on that slippery downward slope.
2 pts King Johns Castle. My dark horse this year, terrible dosage figures, never won over 3 mile but now off a similar weight to when 2nd to no other than Comply 2 years ago. Has the all important 30/30 stat as second at Aintree! Hope he runs in the Bobbyjo Saturday.
1 pt Niche Market. Shown so much character and class. Whatever this horse carries he’s gonna run a big race but surely can’t win off 11.??.
If GTL is Aintree bound he’ll be my no.1 but just now I want big runs from Fitz and KJC.
Running Total
41 Gone to Lunch
30 Snowy Morning
21 Hello Bud
19 Royal County Star
17 Air Force One
16 Arbor Supreme
13 Iris De Balme
14 Cane Brake
09 Maljimar
07 Dream Alliance
06 Ballyfitz
06 State of Play
06 Mr Pointment
05 Character Building
04 Backstage
02 King Johns Castle
02 Parsons Legacy
02 Le Beau Bai
02 Kilcrea Castle
01 Mon Mome
01 My Will
01 Comply or Die
01 Niche Market
#466
February 17th, 2010 14:19
Good work Pablo
Possol – it would take a special kinda horse to make me wanna back a 7 year old – whilst his second in the RP last year is good, he’s up 8lb for that and we havent yet seen how he will handle it.
At 20/1 there is no real value in backing him now in my book. Better to watch him next time (probably at the RP Chase again) and see how he fares there. Even a win and I would imagine you could still back him at 10s or so if you really wanted to.
#467
February 17th, 2010 14:20
2nd in last years R Post chase and stuffed Erics Charm (who gets the odd shout on here) by 90+l at Perth in a Class 2 Ch over 24f.
Yes been hurdling (22f and above) but won both pulling a cart…
Hmmmm
#468
February 17th, 2010 14:21
OK DE fair point …the age was the negative for me plus the price…if it was 40′s+ I might have had a nibble…
#469
February 17th, 2010 14:27
I still can’t face this!
its like we’re all spread out on a cold river bank panning for gold, trying to find our fortune, before having to stowaway back to britain with our tails between our legs.. ha!
my face keeps contorting into a weird slightly painful smile.
Anyone done complete breakdown…..on these understudies? Kilcrea castle for example I know nothing about.
Backstage ran in foxhunters last yr, finished somewhere?
what colours does he run in I’ll watch it again.
Still impressed by Trust Fund there, finished fresh, so I’ll ask again anyone heard anything, reasons for no runs yet?
#470
February 17th, 2010 14:30
Systemsman, you’re right a collective effort required.
So, tried this last year, Mon Mome was there of course then I ignored it!, see where it gets us.
11st 5lbs or less – (since 1957 only Red Rum has carried more)
aged 8-12
A; top5 Hennessy/top 3 Irish,Scots,Welsh Nat/ top 2 race over GN fences(not GN itself)-
B; 3 chase wins at 24f or more including 1 at 28f or more
30/30.
A; 24/30
B; 6/30
A; COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 11-11-05; NICHE MARKET (FR) 9-11-4;
DREAM ALLIANCE 9-11-03; MY WILL (FR) 10-11-02;
AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 8-10-12;CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 10-10-11;
GONE TO LUNCH (IRE) 10-10-11; STATE OF PLAY 10-10-11;
ROYAL COUNTY STAR (IRE) 11-10-10;OLLIE MAGERN 12-10-09;
IRISH RAPTOR (IRE) 11-10-07;MR POINTMENT (IRE) 11-10-07;
HELLO BUD (IRE) 12-10-06; IRIS DE BALME (FR) 10-10-06;
TRUST FUND (IRE) 12-10-06; FLINTOFF (USA) 9-10-05;
PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 12-10-05;
B; CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 10-10-11;ERIC’S CHARM (FR) 12-10-09;
(if I’ve missed any off please let me know!)
horses who broke part ‘A’ of Hennessy stat, 6/30
80 Ben Nevis, American, won two Maryland Hunt Cups, 32f, most prestigious chase in USA, brought down in previous GN
84 Hallo Dandy, won at 28f, 4th in previous GN on unsuitable going
86 West Tip, unplaced in Welsh National, unplaced in RSA, won at 29f,won William Hill Trophy chase, fell at 2nd bechers in previous GN when going well
91 Seagram, won at 32f, unplaced in Hennessy, 3rd Racing Post chase, won William Hill Trophy chase
95 Royal Athlete, fell in void GN, Irish National, Hennessy, RSA, 3rd in Gold Cup, 4th in Racing Post chase, won at 28f
97 Lord Gyllene, 2nd in Midlands National, won at 34f
Only horses to break ‘top5 Hennessy etc’ stat in last 40 years
78 Lucius, 3rd in Blue Square Gold Cup Haydock, won at 24f,
73 Red Rum, 4th in Blue Square, 5th in Scots Nat, won at 27f
71 Specify, 2nd in 21f Paddy Power Gold Cup, fell in Hennessy, fell at 2nd bechers when going well in previous GN, won at 24f
70 Gay Trip, won 21f Paddy Power Gold Cup, 4th in King George, 6th in Gold Cup, 2nd in RSA, won at 21f.
#471
February 17th, 2010 14:41
Didn’t realise that the 30/30 stat applied to horses placed over the National fences but not in the National itself! Seems strange but I guess there’s some logic there as previously placed GN horses normally get pounded up. But what about King Johns who seems to have no penalty for his 4L second to Comply?
#472
February 17th, 2010 14:50
Excellent stuff Crisp. As kj described so well, it feels we’re searching for scraps of treasure amidst sand and we need to work as a team to make sense of it all and to separate the wheat from the chaff!
The 30/30 stat isn’t my favourite but it is very strong and it makes me worry about horses like Snowy Morning, TT, BFT, Possol, Cane Brake etc.
I guess the problem is that if you look at the horses that make the ‘A’ or ‘B’ lists there are question marks about most of them and none are rock solid. The top few have big weights, a couple on there have experienced a downturn in form, a couple are iffy jumpers, two haven’t run in ages, one doesn’t stay, one doesn’t go left-handed, and several look like they might not make the cut. Air Force One and Character Building look the most difficult to pick holes in but they’re not that inspiring either!
What about Arbor Supreme? Doesn’t quite make list ‘B’ having only won over 3m+ twice but those wins were over 29f and 30f. Has several other places over 24f+.
#473
February 17th, 2010 14:52
I reckon the winner is on there somewhere Crisp – problem is, they all have their own quesiton marks and there are so many variables (ground, the performance in their next run, whether they will have another run) that I dont think it is worth trying to narrow it down much further yet.
I say you keep that list handy (I certainly have) and after Cheltenham, we see who’s left standing and take it from there. Im sure we will be left with a more managable number then…
He says hopefully!!
Im gonna try and switch off for the next week or so, because I could be posting a different ‘top 6′ on almsot an hourly basis at the minute, and that includes throughout the night (I woke up on Monday night/Tuesday morning wondering what weight WOA was going to get – honestly!!)
#474
February 17th, 2010 15:00
Well, if we throw in some of the top picks on our chart;
A; COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 11-11-05; NICHE MARKET (FR) 9-11-4;
DREAM ALLIANCE 9-11-03; MY WILL (FR) 10-11-02;
AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 8-10-12;CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 10-10-11;
GONE TO LUNCH (IRE) 10-10-11; STATE OF PLAY 10-10-11;
ROYAL COUNTY STAR (IRE) 11-10-10;OLLIE MAGERN 12-10-09;
IRISH RAPTOR (IRE) 11-10-07;MR POINTMENT (IRE) 11-10-07;
HELLO BUD (IRE) 12-10-06; IRIS DE BALME (FR) 10-10-06;
TRUST FUND (IRE) 12-10-06; FLINTOFF (USA) 9-10-05;
PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 12-10-05;
B; CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 10-10-11;ERIC’S CHARM (FR) 12-10-09;
C; BACKSTAGE (FR) 8-11-00; BALLYFITZ 10-10-09;
ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 8-10-08;CANE BRAKE (IRE) 11-10-08;
MALJIMAR (IRE) 10-10-08;
#475
February 17th, 2010 15:04
Sorry, missed Snowy.
A; COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 11-11-05; NICHE MARKET (FR) 9-11-4;
DREAM ALLIANCE 9-11-03; MY WILL (FR) 10-11-02;
AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 8-10-12;CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 10-10-11;
GONE TO LUNCH (IRE) 10-10-11; STATE OF PLAY 10-10-11;
ROYAL COUNTY STAR (IRE) 11-10-10;OLLIE MAGERN 12-10-09;
IRISH RAPTOR (IRE) 11-10-07;MR POINTMENT (IRE) 11-10-07;
HELLO BUD (IRE) 12-10-06; IRIS DE BALME (FR) 10-10-06;
TRUST FUND (IRE) 12-10-06; FLINTOFF (USA) 9-10-05;
PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 12-10-05;
B; CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 10-10-11;ERIC’S CHARM (FR) 12-10-09;
C; BACKSTAGE (FR) 8-11-00; SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 10-10-13;
BALLYFITZ 10-10-09; ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 8-10-08;
CANE BRAKE (IRE) 11-10-08; MALJIMAR (IRE) 10-10-08;
if the winner isn’t there I’m not playing!
#476
February 17th, 2010 15:05
dont forget Snowy Morning
#477
February 17th, 2010 15:18
God I wish Mouse would do a uturn on his decision about War,
don’t think he’s man enough to say he was a bit OTT and has changed his mind. Sad.
Re Niche Markets team, seems thats another ship of fools, not only did they kinda ruin his big GN chances, they now seem to think they should have run him in the gold cup, which they took him out of!
Glad to see Crisp you are considering higher weights have a chance. I was thinking initially 11-3 ok (DA) but you think 11-5 (COD) quite possible, but hard looking at COD last yr isn’t it on 11-6.
Great list, SOP looks best, but you can’t be fit enough to win fresh for 4m4. has it been done?
Take a look at Trust Funds foxhunter win, reminds me of Bindaree, chestnut enjoying it in the sun! anyone heard anything since may?!!!
I’d also stick in Ballyfitz for his WN effort, although a total blunder bus!
- oh you have… I like the C list, thanks for the warm n positive vibes Crispy, feel much better now, even if the rye smile still stuck on
#478
February 17th, 2010 15:18
I’ve been looking at Cane Brake on ATR; still haven’t backed him but so many people fancy him that I keep meaning to add him to my list. However, although he was a very good hurdler and ran well in the Gold Cup his career is full of falls,pu’s, ur’s etc. As for all the rest, I’m like Daniel; my head is just too full of it all and I think I need to put it on the back burner for a while and clear my head. I thought that seeing the weights would make it a bit clearer, but it has had the opposite effect I’m afraid. Mon Mome was allocated 10.6 last year and look how much his weight went up. I know I was amazed at how many horses pulled out last year. However, you’d assume that VW will keep Mon Mome in the race whatever happens to keep the weight down for Flintoff. I’m also in awe of Tricky Trickster who I’m beginning to think is something very special, so even my age criteria is being questioned. The only thing I am certain of this year is that Bible Lord shouldn’t even be allowed to run, for his and everyone elses safety.
#479
February 17th, 2010 15:35
Glad you put up that C list with SM in it. As I am sure he is goingto run I’am going to have a 50%stakes bet on him today. It very odd that he 30/30 stathas the Becher chase etc at Aintree but not 1/2/3 in the GN!- it only a matter of time (as is 1 to 5 in the Gold Cup I hink). I just dont think I can sleep wellat this stage without some cover on SM No2 in our poll so far.
#480
February 17th, 2010 15:44
Mon Mome left off List A. (Welsh National.)
I’ll look up all the races, just to double-check. Luckily got it all on my portfolio thread, apart from 2009 Hennessy & Welsh National.
#481
February 17th, 2010 15:48
What problems do people see with State of Play’s profile for the big race? He’s my only antepost bet so far, and I make him a very strong contender.
The 2 downsides that I have considered and then discounted are;
- only 1 prep / going to Aintree fresh. Not the usual profile of a GN winner, but proven to go well fresh (Hennessey win), and only 36 day longer layoff than when finishing 4th last year, and could be carrying 5lbs less this time.
- placed horses don’t come back to win. Coincidence surely? There can be no valid reason for an unplaced or faller to have a better chance than a placed horse, if anything the opposite should apply.
On the positives, the rest of the profile is spot on, and we know its an intended runner.
#482
February 17th, 2010 15:52
defo coincident about placed horses – Amberleigh House did it after all, albeit two years apart…
#483
February 17th, 2010 15:54
Systemsman, well when I put that list together I was trying to throw a blanket over the winners as it were and see where it led me, and not trying to make things fit.
Only 2 horses in the last 30 years have placed in the GN and comeback to win. Not impossible just an unusual occurrence. Regarding Snowy Morning, he’s in my 6, haven’t bet on him yet. He does miss some stats for me, but I think you’d have to ask, what is in his favour this year that wasn’t in ’08? (Hallo Dandy got his preferred going, Amberleigh House was in the form of his life even at the age of 12, second to Clan Royal in Becher) Snowy Morning’s weight would seem OK, he has ran well on most types of going, still only won at 24f, no handicap chase wins and his current RPR>OR 5 (in last 8 chases, RPR>OR 7 or more 16/16) suggests that he may not have enough in hand. Party Politics was the last only to have a RPR>OR 5 but he’d just been second in Hennessy and Welsh National, was on an OR153 and only carried 10-7 with a lot of the field out of the handicap.
Basically, in my opinion, I don’t think you can just use a previous GN performance as being a sign that a horse will comeback and win as the results suggest that isn’t enough.
#484
February 17th, 2010 16:00
Cane Brake best form 3 years ago admittedly – he does need a good run now
On that form he is the best handicapped horse in the field for me – almost guaranteed to be under 11’0
2 big-field class 1 handicap victories (one off 142 his GN OR – quite a feat off top weight in Ireland) and 5th in Gold Cup
However it was 3 years ago!
He has shown some promise this season (first 2 runs – giving heaps of weight away to Beroni) but hasn’t fared too well last two efforts
All recent chase have been in Grade 1s and have had the effect of lowering his OR
Taaffe said 3 years ago that he really wanted to run Cane Brake in the GN but they preferred the Gold Cup and Irish National (faced impossible task off 159 – no horse has won that race off more than 148 as far back as 1998 at least)
Handicap record for Taaffe = 2,1,1,P (off 159) – previously with Wachman
Has been P quite a bit and on good ground – although did run 5th in GC on GS and there is always some juice in the ground these days
The GN has been the aim for 2 years
If he shows up well in a chase (RPR high 140s/early 150s) then my bets at 100+ will look good otherwise no harm done – at those odds I thought it worth a punt
#485
February 17th, 2010 16:03
AGree with all of that Pablo – I am on at 90 but fear that to stand any chance he will need a good deal of juice in the ground.
#486
February 17th, 2010 16:07
You hardly hear of any trainers complaining about the ground these days – only those that want it rattling fast (Parson’s Legacy)
I’m more interested in the current form
#487
February 17th, 2010 16:10
with you gammers,my no1/2 at present.
#488
February 17th, 2010 16:11
I forgot about the Scottish National, but I’ll let it go. These horses are left off List A:
Oodachee
Black Apalachi
NotrePere
Over The Creek
Mon Mome
Madison Du Berlais
Knowhere
Trabolgan
Silver By Nature
Le Beau Bai.
Off the top of my head, I can’t remember whether Oodachee, Over The Creek or Silver By Nature are entered in the GN, so apologies if I’ve included them in error.
#489
February 17th, 2010 16:13
Forgot about the 2009 Becher, so Vic Venturi is another for List A.
Messy, or what?
#490
February 17th, 2010 16:21
Gammers,
I really fancied SOP last year (and backed him) and he ran well enough to finish 4th. Would I want to back him again this year? I’m not sure. His Hennessy rub earlier in the season was awful, which doesn’t inspire confidence but he has been dropped 5lbs from last year. I don’t know if that will make a huge difference. He’s still got to jump the fences and he made a few mistakes on the way round last year, possibly because he isn’t that big. I’m looking elsewhere to be honest.
#491
February 17th, 2010 16:36
They found a reason for his bad run in the Hennessey; pulled muscle or something, which made me take an interest in him again. I think it’s the fact that Ruby was so negative about My Will and yet State of Play’s jockey was gutted that the mistakes stopped him running a big race, and said the horse really took to the place.
#492
February 17th, 2010 16:46
I thought the whole point of lists A, B & C was to exclude horses with 11’06 or more
Thereby EXCLUDING the following irrespective of form in ‘key races’
Albertas Run
Madison Du Berlais
Notre Pere
Taranis
Our Vic
Mon Mome
Black Apalachi
Joe Lively
Vic Venturi
And possibly exclusing this lot if Mon Mome is top weight:
Comply Or Die
Don’t Push It
Irish Invader
Made In Taipan
Niche Market
Tricky Trickster
Casey Jones
Cloudy Lane
Dream Alliance
Nozic
Possol
Siegemaster
That would mean there’s some value around if Mon Mome were top weight using the 11’05 and below stat (Crisp’s stat goes back to 1957, exception being Red Rum)
#493
February 17th, 2010 17:08
30/30 stat+
MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 9-11-10;
NOTRE PERE (FR) 9-11-10;
MON MOME (FR) 10-11-07;
BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 11-11-06;
JOE LIVELY (IRE) 11-11-06;
VIC VENTURI (IRE) 10-11-06.
COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 11-11-05;
NICHE MARKET; (IRE) 9-11-04;
TRICKY TRICKSTER (IRE) 7-11-04;
DREAM ALLIANCE 9-11-03;
MY WILL (FR) 10-11-02;
LE BEAU BAI (FR) 7-10-13;
SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 10-10-13; – 3rd.GN
AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 8-10-12;
CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 10-10-11;
CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 10-10-11;
GONE TO LUNCH (IRE) 10-10-11;
STATE OF PLAY 10-10-11;
ROYAL COUNTY STAR (IRE) 11-10-10;
ERIC’S CHARM (FR) 12-10-09;
KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 11-10-09; – 2nd.GN
OLLIE MAGERN 12-10-09;
CANE BRAKE (IRE) 11-10-08; – 5th.GC
IRISH RAPTOR (IRE) 11-10-07;
MR POINTMENT (IRE) 11-10-07;
HELLO BUD (IRE) 12-10-06;
IRIS DE BALME (FR) 10-10-06;
TRUST FUND (IRE) 12-10-06;
FLINTOFF (USA) 9-10-05;
PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 12-10-05;
ROYAL ROSA (FR) 11-10-05; – 3rd.Becher
SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 13-10-05;
KNOWHERE (IRE) 12-10-04;
OODACHEE 11-10-04;
TRABOLGAN (IRE) 12-10-03
#494
February 17th, 2010 17:38
Re Cane Break: The last 5 Irish winners were all 138-144 and having their first runs in the apart from Hedgehunter who would have been placed if not fallen at last in A. Houses year.
CB and KJC (ie placed as HH would have been) fill this along with 2 or 3 others. I cant see below 140 getting in so this narrows it down if looking for Irish possibility.
Re Trust Fund. If its a hunter then HChs dont start till beginning of Feb and maybe they thought it would get a ‘running’ mark by preserving its form. It is due to run in a good HCh at Haydock this Sat (one Rough Quest won in the past but AFTER his GN win!). Might be worth noting how it runs.
#495
February 17th, 2010 17:45
You gotta smile at Paul Murphy (Ceriums trainer with Wilsons money,…) “Anxious wait to see if he gets in as 75th on list…He is flting at home…10 times better than last year and he has same mark….”
OK if he is going that well at home why didnt you run him to get a higher mark so then being certain of a run…. or is that too stoopid…..lol
And that sad fact is there are loads below Cerium who deserve a run and with live chances if it gets down to mid 70′s….sheesh!!
#496
February 17th, 2010 18:46
Like I said theres alot to like in the 69-89 bracket and some could have helped themselves in, must be someones plot putting something in the other trainers water.
Didn’t realise Trust Fund just been in HChs since last yr, when he left Alners yard, thanks Nick, detail ey.
Have any winners/placers gone the hunter route in the past?
Re Backstage young horse, but just doesn’t look good on paper at all!
Managed to work out which horse he was in foxhunters, (red with blue sleeves, sound right?) raced with TF mid field and progressing, no jumping mistakes, but when TF accelerated through, Backstage couldn’t follow, made one place up, from a few out, finished 8th kept on but looked like end of stamina? beaten by Le Duc, 5th, who was on downgrade by then.
#497
February 17th, 2010 19:57
Last year 10.04 was 40th. on the initial wt. list, this year 10.04 is 80th. Infact 22 donkey/horses got in below 10.04 and we spent most of our time shopping in this bargain basement dept. with the likes of –
Cornish Sett – 10.02
Darkness – 10.01
Rambling Minster – 10.01
Southern Vic – 10.01
etc.
Mon Mome 10.06 was number 36 (’08 no.59 and ’07 no.56 ), the 4th. 10.06 winner in a row.
This year Phil has pulled a fast one with Albertas OR164 to 158 and not keeping Mon Mome on OR161. So all our horses have gone up 6Lbs ( which is good for MM ). Tricky and Niche cut their own throats last Sat. and are up 10Lbs. To be fair he did allow Snowy his OR147 (10.07 based on Albertas 164), which I thought he wouldn’t.
This year number 70th. is 10.06, so in my book 10.12 is the new 10.06 and since I can’t have 5 in a row (will watch AFO) I will go a pound either side. That gives me Gone To Lunch 10.11(the new 10.05), Snowy 10.13(the new 10.07) and if the wts. dont go up I still give Dream Alliance a chance on 11.03(the new 10.11).
No more bargain basement shopping for me unless its a stand-out cracker and matches all, all the stats.
#498
February 17th, 2010 20:14
Ballyholland has been mentioned by the ‘pros.’
No one has mentioned him here I don’t think.
I assume he isn’t a box ticker?
#499
February 17th, 2010 20:33
Have to come to the conclusion that last year’s race was poor – as Miinnehoma suggests the ones below Mon Mome (11’5), extra weight (handed extra 7lb + cos Irish), Novice, form, off track
Mon Mome – trends
Comply Or Die – weight (former winner)
My Will – trends
State Of Play – trends
Big Fella Thanks – novice
Snowy Morning – weight
Preists Leap – extra weight
Hear The Echo – extra weight
Chelsea Harbour – weight
Knowhere – weight
Cloudy Lane – weight
Silver Birch – form
Ollie Magern – weight
Stan – weight
Eurotrek – 2 years off track
Black Apalachi – extra weight
And the winner was 100/1!!!
Hindsight I know…
More on this year’s bunch 11’0 + to follow…
#500
February 17th, 2010 20:37
Sorry first part came out all wrong – start again…
Have to come to the conclusion that last year’s race was poor – as Miinnehoma suggests the ones below Mon Mome (< 11’0) were Novices, Class 2 beasts masquerading as GN winners etc
Key to comments below:
Trends (11’0 to 11’4 with a touch of class), weight (11′5), extra weight (handed extra 7lb + cos Irish), Novice, poor form, off track for ages
Mon Mome – trends
Comply Or Die – weight (former winner)
My Will – trends
State Of Play – trends
Big Fella Thanks – novice
Snowy Morning – weight
Preists Leap – extra weight
Hear The Echo – extra weight
Chelsea Harbour – weight
Knowhere – weight
Cloudy Lane – weight
Silver Birch – form
Ollie Magern – weight
Stan – weight
Eurotrek – 2 years off track
Black Apalachi – extra weight
And the winner was 100/1!!!
Hindsight I know…
More on this year’s bunch 11′0 + to follow…
#501
February 17th, 2010 20:44
11′ 6+ this year
Albertas Run – really a GN horse?
Madison Du Berlais – afterthoughts?, expecting this to be better this season – still got to carry a lot of weight
Notre Pere – needs soft ground, looks on downgrade
Taranis – was this the target, really?
Our Vic – ditto, ok he’s in form but…
Mon Mome – would be well in for any normal winner but doubts that last year’s race was any good – potential for place though
Black Apalachi – ran a good race last year but was in prime form – needs a good show in Bobbyjo
Joe Lively – Cheltenham specialist – afterthought surely and weight against
Vic Venturi – weight a concern and needs to recapture pre-Xmas form
None of the above currently appeals in any shape or form unless Mon Mome is the real deal
GN winners normally have run in Irish National, previous GN/Topham or performed well in current Hennessy or Gold Cup AND are well-in at the weights AND are handicappers
Which means that 11’5 or lower could be in for a field day…?
#502
February 17th, 2010 20:50
miinnehoma
“That gives me Gone To Lunch 10.11(the new 10.05), Snowy 10.13(the new 10.07) and if the wts. dont go up I still give Dream Alliance a chance on 11.03(the new 10.11).
No more bargain basement shopping for me unless its a stand-out cracker and matches all, all the stats.”
miinnehoma my own view are not far off yours after spending the day looking at all the info – its doing my head and eyes in!
I too still think DA has a ouside chance – just, if he is within 12lbs of bottom weight (and if he is still improving as I think he is).
Will post my 1 to 6 tomorrow morning – need to sleep on it first.
#503
February 17th, 2010 20:58
11’0 to 11’5
Comply Or Die – possible
Don’t Push It – weight
Irish Invader – weight!
Made In Taipan – no 3m+ win
Niche Market – trends, no more weight
Tricky Trickster – possible, youngster
Casey Jones – no handicap experience
Cloudy Lane – not good enough
Dream Alliance – trends, no more weight, needs soft?
Nozic – out of form, no key race
Possol – no Class 1 win, youngster
Siegemaster – unlikely starter
My Will – trends
Pablo Du Charmil – fails on most stats
One Cool Cookie – no key race, possible, but maybe unlikely starter, handicap experience questionable
War Of Attrition – trainer’s got the hump
Backstage – no Class 1, no key race, possible (trainer is top notch)
Ballyholland – interesting possible
Beat The Boys – no key race, doesn’t look well-handicapped
Preists Leap – non-stayer
Roulez Cool – don’t know enough about this one
Again nothing stands out except the obvious but most vulnerable to any rise in the weights
Many of those 11’0 come from big stables and I am sure that not all will run because there will be other handicaps and consitions races to go for
In some ways the more runners the trainer has in the race the less likely they are to win (no stand out) – A P O’Brien in last year’s Derby…?
So I make it that the real story with this year’s race is the quality of the horses in the 140 (Hello Bud, Iris De Balme) to 147 (Snowy Morning, Air Force One) band
These top handicaps are very difficult to win with carrying > 11’0 – Cheltenham, Ireland and GN
That’s my take on it anyway fwiw
#504
February 17th, 2010 21:20
Previous winners:
Mr Frisk – owners didn’t want to enter year before but it was considered – key race place in Hennessy that year, top notch form on GF, got his ground, hosed up
Seagram – 9th in Hennessy that year, best ever performance at Cheltenham Festival win 3 weeks before
Party Politics – key race places in Hennessy & Welsh that season
Miinnehoma – injured, RSA winner previously, placed in Welsh National previously 7th in GC that season
Royal Athlete – previously one of the favourites for void race, 3rd in GC previously, had won a handicap off 163
Rough Quest – RP Chase winner & 2nd in Gold Cup that season
Lord Gyllene – the odd one out – progressive form that season accelerating through the handicap, 2nd in Midlands National to a decent horse
Earth Summit – injured the year before, previous Scottish & Welsh (that season) winner – got soft ground
Bobbyjo – won Irish year before
Papillon – 2nd in Irish to Bobbyjo off top weight (low rating admittedly)
Red Marauder – fluky win, but fell in previous year’s race, ran in Irish and top 5 Hennessy in the 12 months prior
Bindaree – key race places in Hennessy & Welsh that season
Monty’s Pass – 2nd in Topham year before, won Kerry National, waltzed in
Amberleigh House – Aintree specialist, 3rd in GN year before, best performance 2nd in Becher that season
Hedgehunter – fell at last year before, previously key race placed in Hennessy & Welsh and won Thyestes
Numbersixvalverde – won Irish year before, won Thyestes previously
Silver Birch – injured, previously fell in race and won Welsh & Becher
COD – enetered for race when injured, previously placed in RSA and top 4 Hennessy
Mon Mome – 10th (hampered) in race year before, previously key race in Welsh
So all had the National in their sights from at least one year before
So many of the those at the top this year are turning up as if this is an ordinary handicap – but it’s worth £925k – needs some plotting!
#505
February 17th, 2010 21:32
He’s not in my top 6 for several reasons (lack of handicap experience, poor run in Irish National, slightly high in weights, travel sickness) but one horse I have had to back (hoping the weights stay the same is Casey Jones)
After the RSA last year when he finished like a rocket, i said ”Grand National”. He jumps to the left and so LH courses suit him well, he is potentially well in as he is classy and I believe he stays all day. Goes on all sorts out ground.
As i say, not in top 6 at present but if I let him win unbacked I would not be happy!
#506
February 17th, 2010 21:49
Hey!! Really proud of all the team
Been away on business and at hotel last night paid 6 squid to get onto a network conection with laptop and then I got a bit of info and connection and it went tits up – you guys know me well and our passion for GN – so you can imagine me cursing last night in that hotel room lol.
OK 30/30 stat remember we agreed that for GN we were including Top 4 for RACE ITSELF and Top 2 for other Aintree race over GN fences eg Becher etc. This new addition has to stay – how on earth could we make Top 3 in Scots, Wesl and Irish and only Top 2 in the catrual race itself – makes HUGE common sense. Can be no dissention to this – the race we need to pay most heed to of the 4 national Nationals is of course the GN itself.
Shocked by weights esp One Cool Cookie – too much – State of Play – too little. Niche – justice done. Major thumbs up though was for Snowy.
Really feel the ‘will he won’t he’ on Gone To Lunch has hyped his vote somewhat – the attraction opf the untangible etc. Great chance but not my no.1. I have it on very good authority that his recent poor runs HAVE been a source of concern and that doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence.
MASSIVE MASSIVE big winner from weight is Hello Bud. Will post my Top 6 on soon. Latest Top 6 vote open till midnight on Sunday and then I’ll do comparisons and overview soon after.
#507
February 17th, 2010 21:56
Can anyone give me update on any signalled that they were unlikely to run? Please post up any who have said that. Thanks in advance. Arbor and Royal County’s great weights – I thought would have seen them come in but odds if anything have slightly drifted.
#508
February 17th, 2010 22:01
30 horses need to pull out for HB to get in? Is that a concern?
I am new to getting involved betting wise on the national this early so forgive my ignorance:-)
#509
February 17th, 2010 22:01
I agree, DA still in with a shout with a bunch of others dare I say even NM and COD if weights don’t rise and there is a good chance of that. Can we forget MM now?
Quality and form is either high in weights or at real risk of missing cut. Such a mess in the middle, SOP only reliable all rounder! missed 33s, 25s won’t last, still pondering.
Even if I just quit here and back my initials/name do I go with KJC or Casey ‘KC’ Jones here! ah dear…
GTL monkey, AFO bit of a funny monkey? would rather back Silver Birch than Backstage! and never want to back a little Mouse with a big chip on his shoulder ever again! (said this last yr) he is a silly man passing up a chance like this, it was the target, great prep, even if he feels he is defending the irish treatment, WOA not bad in context, he crazy. Deep breath…
Did anyone post a RPR OR +5/7 list recently?
Pablo, can you repost the list of horses with 3+ preps was wondering if adding these important factors pinpoints anything, saturday could help, off to brood on it, dick dasterdly styley. Think I need a break tmw, good work guys keep panning for that nugget!
#510
February 17th, 2010 22:02
Mouse Morris has said WOA is a non runner so we shall see him at the starting tape come April
#511
February 17th, 2010 22:23
GREEN.ST. says:
February 17, 2010 at 11:24 AM
mornin all,pablo etc,check out go racing ireland online.includes news on cane brake.and more.
Whereabout? On site and can’t see any news on Cane etc – can you please post up link. Thanks
#512
February 17th, 2010 22:41
Giant says:
February 17, 2010 at 10:01 PM
30 horses need to pull out for HB to get in? Is that a concern?
Hello Bud 10.06 is 70th. on list. The cut-off for the last 3 years – 74th, 73rd and 75th. so he has a chance. Last year 70th. was 9.11.
#513
February 17th, 2010 22:43
Is averyone discounting Big Fella Thanks, ran really well last year for a 7 year old now back this year and managed to get a weight of 10.12, Snowy has 10.13 yet we think he has a good chance.
Surely a horse with 10.12, came 6th last year on 11.1, familar with national course now 8 year old coming from a champion trainers yard must be on everyones radar yet nobody has him in their top 6 am i missing something.
#514
February 17th, 2010 22:48
by the way BFT will be 9 come end of april
#515
February 17th, 2010 22:48
I am worried about him as one who could ruin my chances, and my mate Craig has lumped on him. I have doubts over his ability to get home; seemed to falter in last 4 furlongs last year, although maybe now he is a year older his stamina may have improved?
#516
February 17th, 2010 23:47
Who wants to have a bet that WoA is not actually withdrawn at the next forfeit stage? MM is about as straight as Rolf Harris’ boomarang.
#517
February 18th, 2010 08:24
If you take the view that those above Mon Mome won’t win because the weight burden is too big in the GN then by compressing the weights at the top he’s made TT & NM’s job that much harder because they have to carry >11’1
I think this compression of the weights really has an adverse effect on those just below the compression threshold
So far from being a level playing field it gives those at the top who didn’t have an earthly (they’re not hiding any secrets from anyone) a few lbs off which means that those just below are relatively worse off
So hopefully all this meddling means business as usual for trends followers and plot merchants alike
#518
February 18th, 2010 08:41
Johnny I had the same thoughts to myself at one stage yesterday, but he’s only won one chase from 9, which has to be a concern.
#519
February 18th, 2010 09:32
Showlad – surely if Hello Bud is well in at the weights, then Gone to Lunch is too;
13lb for a 6 length defeat in the Hennessy to Niche Market
and 11lb from Hello Bud in the Scottish National last April
?
#520
February 18th, 2010 10:17
Jeremy Scott (Gone To Lunch 10st 11lb): “I’d be happy enough with that and we just want him to bounce back to a bit of form.
“He was a bit disappointing at Sandown last time but we found he has one or two little muscle issues and the ground was probably soft enough for him that day.
#521
February 18th, 2010 10:35
I know I said I was going to take a break from this….but I lied.
I have formulated a points system for each runner this year. It uses the last 20 years winners and their records prior to the race.
The points awarded for each stat are weighted according to the percentage of winners in the last 20 years to have met that stat, rather than attributing each runner with either one point or zero points for each stat.
FOR EXAMPLE;
– For age;
7 yos – 0/20
13 yos – 0/20
So any horse 7 or 13 gets minus one for age, as its a fairly safe stat in the sense it has stood for a long long time and many have tried and failed to break it.
Now we all know the last 20 winners have been aged 8-12, by 11 of them have been 9-10. So 11/20 would give a score of 0.55 for each horse 9-10. HOWEVER in the last 10 years (i.e the years more likely to be relevant) that stat is 7/10, or 0.70. So what I have done here i.e. where there seems to be a recent shift in trends, is take the average of the two scores (0.55 & 0.70) which is 0.625.
So any horse aged 9-10 gets 0.625
8, 11 and 12yos get zero
With 7 or 13 getting minus 1 – as explained above.
I have done this for the following stats;
Age
Weight
Last run (days)
Season runs (I go from August onwards)
Chase runs
Chase wins
Class 1 chase place (i.e. the distance)
Best seasonal run
Number of falls/UR (Less than 4 is 19/20)
Ran at Cheltenham
A horse with more than 11_01 gets zero for weight.
A horse with 11_00 or 11_01 gets 0.15 – because 2 of the last 20 winners have done this (0.1) and two of the last ten (0.2) have – which gives an average of 0.15.
For seasonal runs – a horse with 4-6 runs (10/10 & 16/20) gets 0.9 – a horse with less than 2 gets -1.
and so on and so on…
The points, on this system, for the last 20 winners are as follows
2009 – Mon Mome ——— 6.88
2008 – Comply or Die —- 7.08
2007 – Silver Birch —– 7.18
2006 – Numberisxvalverde -7.68
2005 – Hedgehunter —— 6.88
2004 – Amberleigh House – 6.45
2003 – Montys Pass —— 6.48
2002 – Bindaree ——— 6.55
2001 – Red Marauder —– 4.35
2000 – Papillon ——— 6.78
1999 – Bobbyjo ———- 6.78
1998 – Earth Summit —– 7.68
1997 – Lord Gylenne —– 7.68
1996 – Rough Quest —— 5.23
1995 – Royal Athlete —- 7.05
1994 – Miinnehoma ——- 5.65
1992 – Party Politics — 7.05
1991 – Seagram ———- 4.45
1990 – Mr Frisk ——— 5.95
1898 – Little Polvier — 6.15
You can see from that -
Only Red Maruader and Seagram have scored less than 5.00
13/14 runners (again RM being the exception) have scored more than 6 (in fact the lowest is Amberleigh House with 6.45)
Now I know we always run the risk of over egging the stats, but personally I have found this useful for two reasons;
1 – the PERFECT horse rarely wins – Only Numbersixvalverde, Lord Gyllene and Earth Summit scored a ‘perfect’ score of 7.68. SO don’t go looking for the perfect horse and rule out all others because of it. That said a ‘perfect’ score should not be ignored, as it would return a tidy profit over the past 20 years.
2 – I think, personally, this helps give weight to the strong stats and helps to reduce those that aren’t as strong – I know you could do this without the use of numbers, but I feel it helps to formulate it quite clearly.
I wont tell you who scores highly on this basis for this year yet – but I will once the festival is out of the way, so I can input all the runs since then, whether or not they ran at the festival and ‘days since last run’ etc.
I can tell you there is one horse that gets a ‘perfect’ score….at the moment and that there are a surprisingly low number that get above the ’6′ threshold of the last 14 winners (RM aside)
Sorry if you have read all that and think ‘what a waste of time’ but I thought I would at least share and find out!
#522
February 18th, 2010 10:40
I don’t think it’s a waste of time at all. It looks very interesting. Now, what are the scores so far this year?! Spill the beans!!
#523
February 18th, 2010 10:51
haha – what a relief!
I could, but I dont think it’s fair. For instance, a horse could have a good score now, of say 7, and then lose .50 for running at Cheltenham, plus losing another 0.90 if that is his 7th run of the season, bringing his score down to 5.6.
Meanwhile another horse (say with only 2 seasonal runs so far) has another two runs gaining 0.9, and taking his score from 5.8 say, up to 6.7.
#524
February 18th, 2010 10:53
Ok ok, that’s not fair really, so i’ll tell you who is the ONLY horse with a perfect score.
SNOWY MORNING.
As ive said above, im not getting too excited about this, as the ‘perfect’ horse rarely wins (3/20) but having done this exercise, im glad im on him.
He must be considered to have a stronger chance than some of the other names being thrown around?
#525
February 18th, 2010 11:18
Can I ask how long ago does the stat for placed horses in other nationals stand, 1 season before, 2 ? Thanks.
#526
February 18th, 2010 11:22
Silver Birch was certainly 3 years since winning his Becher and Welsh National.
I would guess it is 3 years (which in this case of those two races is in fact 2 seasons)
Personally though, provided they had shown good enough form in the current season, I wouldnt be ruling out a horse who had done it 4 years/3 seasons previously
#527
February 18th, 2010 11:27
Daniel Edwards wonderful work, well done – a systematic approcah based on solid research and past results – love it. May use it myself in future years. This years most “inventive” post.
Any chance you could just let us know who looks good with 6 or more now? – it woud help me not wasting the odd bets or so as at this stage I really dont want to bet on anything thats not without a good chance or not sure of running.
P.S. Are you able to tell if it got the winners right in the last ten years (how many had 6 or more points in 2009 and 2008 as an example)? I guess thats too much work unless you used it in previous years?
“I can tell you there is one horse that gets a ‘perfect’ score….at the moment”
Now I going to spend the rest of the week trying to work it out, my guess is GTL – am I hot or cold??
#528
February 18th, 2010 11:28
Yer Daniel Spill the Full Tin of Beans…c’mon…
You can always do a fresh table for compariosn after Chelts too.
Give us all a hand up
Yes GTL in at weights very well too. But for me Hello is a SCottish GN winner, he ran very well over the fences at the Becher and he seems to be intended to go there. I’m chhosing not to use my skills focusing too much on GTL until he’s a defo runner.
Miinehoma, hi, but Jeremy does go on to say that he’ll either go to Aintree or Ayr – no commitment to GN at all yet.
#529
February 18th, 2010 11:30
Too late with my post SM would have been my second guess.
How many points has GTL so far? Please.
Thnaks Daniel
#530
February 18th, 2010 11:34
Alright alright – gimme a minute or ten!
Systemsman – the misses is away this weekend and I have little planned. I will crunch the numbers for the past couple of years (christ what am I letting myself in for!) and get back to you on that one.
#531
February 18th, 2010 11:54
For the sake of completeness, I should point out that my post above doesnt quite contain the right numbers for some of the winners – I was working on a different version of the spreadsheet and….well I just got them slightly wrong
The overall picture remains the same, but for the sake of completeness;
2009 – Mon Mome ——— 6.88
2008 – Comply or Die —- 7.08
2007 – Silver Birch —– 7.08
2006 – Numberisxvalverde -7.58
2005 – Hedgehunter —— 6.88
2004 – Amberleigh House – 6.35
2003 – Montys Pass —— 6.48
2002 – Bindaree ——— 6.45
2001 – Red Marauder —– 4.30
2000 – Papillon ——— 6.68
1999 – Bobbyjo ———- 6.68
1998 – Earth Summit —– 7.58
1997 – Lord Gylenne —– 7.58
1996 – Rough Quest —— 5.13
1995 – Royal Athlete —- 6.95
1994 – Miinnehoma ——- 5.55
1992 – Party Politics — 6.95
1991 – Seagram ———- 4.45
1990 – Mr Frisk ——— 5.85
1898 – Little Polvier — 6.05
The PERFECT score is now in fact 7.58 (which Snowy Morning still has)
#532
February 18th, 2010 12:02
Have had a long hard look at all the weights and stats and this is my take on this years GN. I still think it will be a little clearer after cheltenham and other than SM I shall hold on to my money for some late bets unless somethinhg looks outstanding or Daniel “spills the beans”!!
6points Gone To Lunch
If he’s fit I think the trainer/owner WILL run him. Has everything weights/trends/speed/dosage/class!!
5points Snowny Morning.
Top trends and class/weight runner.
Ticks almost all boxes. Knows his way around Aintree. 3rd time lucky?
4 points Air Force One
Another class horse with great trends/weight. May run in Irish National and or bet 365 so NO bet yet – a very risky bet at this point.
3points Arbor Supreme
Great weight. Just outside 30/30 trends by a wisker but has all other stats. A win soon and he goes in top 3 for sure. A well hidden runner!!
2points Dream Alliance
This even surprises me. Its still possible if he is within 12lbs of bottom weight and the weights dont change. A real class horse who meets all the trends – only the weight could stop him.
1point Hello Bud
Great weight and trends. Not sure he’s got the class to win (RPR145) likely to make the running and fade at the end.
Running Total (previously updated by ThaiMark on 17.02 at 2.16pm)
47 Gone to Lunch
35 Snowy Morning
22 Hello Bud
21 Air Force One
19 Royal County Star
19 Arbor Supreme
13 Iris De Balme
14 Cane Brake
09 Maljimar
09 Dream Alliance
06 Ballyfitz
06 State of Play
06 Mr Pointment
05 Character Building
04 Backstage
02 King Johns Castle
02 Parsons Legacy
02 Le Beau Bai
02 Kilcrea Castle
01 Mon Mome
01 My Will
01 Comply or Die
01 Niche Market
#533
February 18th, 2010 12:10
OK – this is assuming;
1 – That they all have their last run between 3-7 weeks before the National (Rough Quest being the exception to the rule at 16 days, which lost cost him -0.95 points on the system)
2 – That they DO NOT run at Cheltenham.
Those with scores above 5.50 (17/20 stat) are;
Snowy Morning —- 7.58
Ellersie George — 7.08
Hello Bud ——– 6.95
Beat The Boys —- 6.88
Gone to Lunch —- 6.58
Cane Brake ——- 6.45
Parsons Pistol — 6.45
Ollie Magern —– 6.35
(6.35 or above is a 13/14 stat – RM the exception)
War of Attrition – 6.25
Joe Lively ——- 6.10
Ballyfitz ——– 6.08
Royal County Star – 6.05
Eric’s Charm —– 6.05
Dream Alliance — 5.83
One Cool Cookie — 5.78
Notre Pere ——- 5.73
Niche Market —– 5.73
Character Building – 5.68
If anybody spots any errors, please let me know!
NB I have only gone as low as number 80 on the entries.
NB2 – If your pick has 3 runs at present, give them another 0.9 points, because the figures above are on the basis of their current number of seasonal runs. Similarly if your pick has 6 seasonal runs at present, you might want to dock 0.9 points allowing for the fact that another run would take them to 7.
#534
February 18th, 2010 12:12
I dont know whether this is a good thing or not, but the top 3 on that table are my 3 biggest winners!
#535
February 18th, 2010 12:12
I meant our Top 6 table….
#536
February 18th, 2010 12:19
I am in awe DE!!
If you have this spread sheet and data base up n running ( I am about to ask a big question so several virtual pints in this for you)is it possible to factor in the suitability of the going re the horses ‘known’ preference/s?? ie if Red M had form on heavy and was known to prefer that etc etc…
I ask because they are forecasting a very wet April for the N West (yup how often do they get that right!) and I am drawing up my top 6 and an alternate if it is likely to be v.v. soft++ for the race.
#537
February 18th, 2010 12:28
I could Nick – But that would bring an element of subjectivity into play, which im trying to avoid.
I cant imagine a horse has ever won on ground they didnt like mind you!
#538
February 18th, 2010 12:35
Ok thats cool most act on the good good to soft that Aintree like to provide (apart from Mr Frisk when it was like the M6) anyhow but have just looked at the spring forecast and it looks grim….hence suddenly I want to factor it in to my choices…
Cheers anyhow.
#539
February 18th, 2010 12:55
Thank you everyone for the excellent information.Can anyone explain how a horse is balloted out under Jockey Club Rules of Racing? Every year I’ve bet on the national I’ve had some money refunded but have not understood quite why. Many thanks.
#540
February 18th, 2010 13:13
Bit of info I just noticed if anyone was considring Mr Pointment past Becher Ch 1st and 2nd) as a lively outsider. He is now owned by Fergus Wilson and wife (famous for buying horses just to run in the GC and GN) so his entries are GC then GN…
Red line through it methinks but at 65th in the list he wont be scratched from the race…
#541
February 18th, 2010 13:22
Mr Pointment is still around 150 on the exchanges – if he does line up, there is not a cat in hell’s chance he will go off that price.
In fact, if he runs in the top 8 or so in the GC, it wouldnt surprise me to see Pricewise tip him up and for him to go off a 20/1 shot or so!!
#542
February 18th, 2010 13:32
I see Arbor Supreme was not confirmed for the Blue Square at Haydock. That’s a shame. He’s still in the Bobbyjo but that’s a conditions race and he faces a tough task at the weights if he runs.
Aintree hopefuls confirmed for Haydock – Our Vic, Mon Mome, Dream Alliance, Le Beau Bai, Ballyfitz, Hello Bud. Will be interesting to see how they got on. Looks like being a test as the ground is heavy right now.
#543
February 18th, 2010 13:53
Daniel, brilliant work and some interesting contenders there, glad I got on Snowys 66s even if his jumping means its for place money.
Well atleast its looking like my weather prediction could be right, even if I miss the winner.. again. Even the met office are following us! Whinstone is at 84, but if its a bog more will come out! could be the ticket! Could we pick out a few mudlarks as a group and put them thro your system please, theirs a virtual rain cloud in it for you Daniel
Look forward to catching up later, I gotta go out in the grim weather.
#544
February 18th, 2010 14:23
Right – dont say I dont do anything for you lot.
The only 5 last year to get above the 6.35 threshold were;
Cornish Sett – 7.58 (Perfect score)
Southern Vic – 7.08
Rambo – 6.95
Mon Mome – 6.88
Snowy Morning ( too much weight anyway)- 6.73
Oh to have thought to have done this last year!!
Im sure most of us had at least one of those top 5, if not 2 or 3 (I know I did)
The other 5 above 6.00 were;
Priests Leap – 6.23 – Too much weight
Black Apalchi – 6.23 – Too much weight
Cloudy Lane – 6.23 – Too much weight
Darkness – 6.18
Butler’s Cabin – 6.08
With;
Kilbeggan Blade – 5.83
Brooklyn Brownie – 5.83
State of Play – 5.73
Idle Talk – 5.58
and all of those 4 fell on quite a key stat too of one description of another.
Whilst the winner is in the top 5, note that none of the other first 5 home were even in the top 10 on this points system.
#545
February 18th, 2010 14:24
And as for picking a mudlark and cross referencing it with my list, once cheltenham is out of the way, I will post the whole top 60 or so and let people make up their own minds.
#546
February 18th, 2010 14:32
As for Arbor Supreme not running in the Gold Cup, im kinda glad, because I was worried he would run well and I would have to back him too!!
#547
February 18th, 2010 14:40
Ref: Mr Pointment, Nick is quite right this horse is now no longer trained by Paul Nicholls. He was sold for a knock down price at auction to the Wilson’s, I would guess the reason was his very well documented bleeding problems meaning he was never going to fulfill his potential as a staying chaser. The Wilson’s don’t care about that though they just want cheap horses with high handicap marks that they can enter in the GC and GN for the day out.
Its no coincidence they never enter them in any other races as they know their marks will be slashed by the handicapper. 150/1 to win a Wilson horse? I’d want 1000/1!
#548
February 18th, 2010 14:46
2pm at Wincanton is shaping up to be an interesting trial with Madison, Kilcrea Castle, Gone to Lunch and Irish Raptor enter over 3m1f. Ruby booked to ride the tother one too so must be expecting a big run there!
#549
February 18th, 2010 14:49
Brody – are they the ones who own Cerium??
#550
February 18th, 2010 14:59
Daniel,
Great analysis. Won’t read into it too much now but it will be interesting to see after Cheltenham/Midlands National. I’m probably not going to have another bet until after Cheltenham now.
With regards Arbor Supreme, he still has time to run well. He’s still in the Bobbyjo Chase and there are a few other chases along the way. I’ve been catching up with some of the post-weights interviews on RPTV and RacingUK and neither Willie Mullins or J P McManus mentioned Arbor Supreme at all. Do neither of them really fancy the horse or are they trying to keep him under the radar?
Brody,
Wincanton looks interesting but the meeting is in doubt unfortunately as the course is waterlogged at the moment
Inspection 1pm tomorrow.
#551
February 18th, 2010 16:06
Arbor Supreme- that’s his left hand RPR gone isn’t it, unless he runs at Cheltenham?
Gone To Lunch not running Saturday, probably for the best, doesn’t seem to go on soft.
Well, I’m a Snowy fan as everyone seems to be but what’s he done since his GN 3rd? I think he really needs to pull out a really big performance between now and Aintree.
I’ve looked at those who came back, placed/unplaced in last 40 runnings.
69 Highland Wedding – 7th ‘68 – won three chases in a row including Eider
74 Red Rum – 1st ‘73 – 2nd Hennessy, won at 25f
75 L’escargot – 2nd ‘74 – 2nd in Irish National two weeks after ’74 GN
76 Rag Trade – 10th last ’75 – won Welsh National
77 Red Rum – 2nd ‘76 – won at 24f
84 Hallo Dandy – 4th ’83 – good ground specialist 4th on soft the previous year, won at 24f, 2nd at 28f
89 Little Polveir – 7th ‘86 – won Scottish National ‘87, won at 27f and placed at 28f in winning season
04 Amberleigh House – 3rd ‘03 – 2nd in that season’s 27f Becher chase recording highest ever RPR
09 Mon Mome – 10th ’08 – won 27f, C1 chase recording highest ever RPR
#552
February 18th, 2010 16:08
Sorry Gone To Lunch still down to run Saturday.
#553
February 18th, 2010 16:14
DE yes they are (the Wilsons) they have had some rank outsider in the last 4 or 5 nationals and gold cups…they are not fans/patrons of the sport, just like their ‘days out’ irrespective of if the horse has the proverbial cat in hells chance….as was pointed out…they are clever enough in seeking some knock down priced former v. good chaser and dont run it to preserve its mark although we do have to say Cerium ran a blinder last year but this has to be the ‘freak’ rather than the norm…….I think their cash comes from being property barons/lanlords and owning half of Kent…
Bit of history…Cary Grant always used to like to ‘buy’ a runner for the National (50′s/60′s) but thisa was the days of 80% cart horses plodding round anyhow…I think his grey (Owen Sedge) came 6th one year….ancient history but slight similarity to the Wilsons ethos…
#554
February 18th, 2010 16:16
Wincanton looks like it could be off Crisp:
Saturday’s high-profile meeting at Wincanton is under serious threat with officials announcing an inspection for 1pm on Friday.
The West Country track is due to stage the Bathwick Tyres Kingwell Hurdle, which amongst others is the intended target of reigning champion hurdler Punjabi.
However, the course has been hit by substantial rainfall already today and with more on the way, clerk of the course Barry Johnson is pessimistic about their chances.
“We’ve had 16 millimetres of rain already today and it is still raining now,” said Johnson on Thursday.
“We are forecast to get at least another eight millimetres for the rest of today and into the morning and we are already waterlogged in places, so we certainly wouldn’t race today.
“It will be desperately disappointing if we have to abandon as it’s our flagship meeting, but we’re up against it at the moment.”
As for Arbor Supreme, there is the Grimthorpe Chase up at Doncaster on 6th March. It’s a class 2 so he could end up with top-weight but it’s a flat left-handed track like Aintree and the ground at Donny is often better than elsehwere, and that would suit him.
#555
February 18th, 2010 16:22
Crisp…didn’t Red Rum go on to win the Scottish National in 74 (3 weeks after GN) and didnt Bindaree win a WN 18 months after the GN?
#556
February 18th, 2010 16:30
Daniel, if that is it, I don’t think too much of your points system. It doesn’t seem to sort out the stayers from the non-stayers. Do you at least award points for horses having won a chase at 3 miles, and a few more points for beyond that?
#557
February 18th, 2010 16:40
OK after watching and re watching the 08 race and the trend of the last 5 Irish winners all being 138-144 I am more and more taken with King Johns Castle.
Not a big fan of Paul C and his hold up rides but KJC lost a length at 2nd Bechers (Butlers Cabin’s fall) and at least 3 or 4 at 2nd Valentines (Knowheres fall) and it lost the race by 4l….giving 2lb to COD. So this year it is 12 lbs better with COD who, to be honest has only had the 1 magnificent run (last years GN) since 08.
Yes KJC has done naff all since but with the forecast being for a wet one…I’ve taken some 66′s ew….
#558
February 18th, 2010 16:55
I live not far from Wincanton and its rained like hell all day today, stopped for 20mins at most! Its a small’ish track so don’t think they have a fancy drainage system like Cheltenham. So yes I would be very doubtful about them getting it on at the moment unfortunately. Not sure Pipe would risk Madison in heavy or Gone to Lunch either as he doesn’t seem to go in heavy ground. Such a shame. Still will cheer myself up with a lumpy EW bet on Silver by Nature on teh way home the softer the better for him
#559
February 18th, 2010 17:01
Me6 – Sorry, I wasnt clear in my original post – any horse not having won over 3 miles at least loses 1 point. A horse who has more than 1 win over 3 miles or further gets 0.9 and 0.1 for those with just the one win (Bindaree and Red Marauder)
Nick – I think PC did a great job to get every ounce of stamina out of KJC that year. Surely if it is going to be a wet year (08 was good ground remember) KJC is going to struggle to get home?
#560
February 18th, 2010 17:04
Right the scores for 2008 were;
Naunton Brook – 7.58 (PERFECT SCORE)
Comply or Die – 7.08
Kelami ——– 6.98
D’Argent —— 6.95
Point Barrow — 6.68
Simon —— 6.23
Vodka Bleu –6.23
Dun Doire — 6.18
Hedgehunter -6.10
Ardaghey — 6.08
Philson Run – 6.05
Snowy Morning 5.75
Slim Pickings 5.73
Mon Mome —- 5.55
Notice how there the similarities with last years scores;
ONE perfect score
ONE other above 7.00
THREE between 7.00 and the 6.45 threshold
and then another nine between 6.45 and 5.55.
Weird!
#561
February 18th, 2010 17:37
Sorry Daniel, I’m still not won over. You’re getting the winner, but you’re not picking up the placed horses.
#562
February 18th, 2010 17:44
DE fair point but KJC prefers give in the ground hence my attachment…
Did you pick up my previous post about the Wilsons being the same people who own Cerium?
#563
February 18th, 2010 17:48
Re Wincanton and the w/end trials. Am not a million miles from Haydock but not looking good re the weekend…we have had rain followed by rain…They have improved the drainage on the flat course (grrr…dont get me started…) but the NH course wont take much more…
I will be there in person if it’s on…
#564
February 18th, 2010 17:58
Looks like Mouse Morris is already backpeddling a bit. From yesterday’s Guardian.
“Mouse Morris, who had ruled War Of Attrition out of the Grand National earlier this week because the horse was given a lot of weight, raised the possibility today that the horse might yet run. “I’ll have to talk to Michael [O'Leary, the owner] about it,” Morris said. “I wouldn’t rule anything out. At the moment we’ll think about the World Hurdle [at Cheltenham on 18 March] and then we’ll see.”"
Come on Michael. GC winner off 149. You know it makes sense!!
#565
February 18th, 2010 18:14
Daniel Edwards – wonderful work and so much potential for the future – I will certainly us it next year.
“only 5 last year to get above the 6.35 threshold were” – and includes the 100/1 winner!! – if only we knew this earlier!!
Can you give us the top runners scores for 2008? I just dying to know? (was 2009 a one off?) Please.
#566
February 18th, 2010 18:16
Daniel, good luck with the system, it looks interesting. As long as the winner is in there eh!
Nick what you say about Red Rum/Bindaree is true but I was looking at the period between a horse finishing a GN, placed or unplaced, and then winning.
#567
February 18th, 2010 18:24
Racing Post comments yesterday:
Wille Mullins re: Arbor Supreme
“Snowy Morning has Aintree experience and is probably the best of ours (notice the word probably)
“EQ may take his chance as well as Arbor Supreme who stays well”
This one will be fine tuned down to the last minute I think.
Charlie Mann re: Air Force One
“We’d hald planned to go for the Irish National followed by Sandown’s Bet365 Gold Cup.I was pleased with his Aon Cahse run”
So hold your bets until we know which race he is aiming for.
#568
February 18th, 2010 18:55
Me6 says:
February 18, 2010 at 5:37 PM
Sorry Daniel, I’m still not won over. You’re getting the winner, but you’re not picking up the placed horses.
I think that is having your cake and eating it.
Yes there are similarities between placed horses – Crisp has identified his strike rate as one.
However it is much harder to set up a system for placed horses than for winners.
I have awarded points to every runner since 1990 and placed horses can be Gold Cup winners like Garrison Savannah or aimable old plodders like Philson Run.
Only 37% of horses to run since 1990 have finished the race – in some years only 4 or 6 finishers. Other things equal you need therefore to bet on 3 to have a reasonable chance of backing a finisher, let alone a winner.
So if there are say 6 trends horses the chances are that only 2 will finish. This would leave say 2 places to be filled by non-trends horses.
In any case runners up in races are not necessarily unlucky. In the GN in recent years Clan Royal was extremely unfortunate but I cannot find another from memory. Bindaree had superior staying power to What’s Up Boys and Silver Birch had too much class for McKelvey who got there but too late – the race is 4m 4f not 5m.
Plenty of placed horses are running on past tired horses but were never in with a chance of winning.
Pretty much every year recently the winner has been the best trends horse of the first four home. But the two best trends horses in any year may have already pulled up or fallen.
#569
February 18th, 2010 19:33
Pablo,
I agree with your general points but I would argue that McKelvey was a bit unlucky as he broke down at the end of the race.
#570
February 18th, 2010 19:40
“Pretty much every year recently the winner has been the best trends horse of the first four home. But the two best trends horses in any year may have already pulled up or fallen.”
Okay, Pablo.
#571
February 18th, 2010 19:44
Yes, Mckelvey would have won if not broken down. That’s why, whenever the top stats are listed, I look to see if they were applicable to McKelvey. They pretty much all are actually from memory
#572
February 18th, 2010 19:45
Fair point Stayer – but perhaps Silver Birch already thought he had the race won and he had the class to be up there most of the way round
A great finish to the race whichever way you look at it
#573
February 18th, 2010 20:55
Those mouse Morris comments suggest to me he realises he has made a cock up with his comments the other day. Now he realises he is racing off 149 and not 155, I rckon he will run
#574
February 18th, 2010 21:55
Would love to know what Mr. H. is up to with Trabolgan. Out of the Gold Cup yesterday and to-day entered for a race next Wed. 24th. Still in RP chase 27th. and GN but at best 85th. on list. Not much chance of making the cut unless he knows something we don’t or a mass exodus. He could be thinking Irish/Scot National or Betfred to pay for the 3 years standing in his box (thats the horse not Mr. H.).
#575
February 18th, 2010 22:22
Whatever Barry Geraghty rides will be almost a tip itself – especially if an Irish horse
No ride for Mr H and he had to ride a no-hoper for Mr H last year
Maybe he’ll team up with Tom Taaffe again and ride Cane Brake to glory…
#576
February 18th, 2010 22:52
Gone to lunch trading at 23′s on betfair….whats that all about then?
#577
February 18th, 2010 23:42
Betfair:
Gone To Lunch 30/1
Snowy Morning 34/1
Both heading down, down down.
They all been reading this blog and or they all have come to the same conclusion one or other has a very good chance of winning!
#578
February 19th, 2010 00:12
Hello all, earlier I was looking at the dosage angle of the race. Well I’ve ran some more stats though. Craig Thake from racing post suggests the winner will have an OR no greater than 148. Every winner in the past decade didn’t surpassed this mark.
This mark starts with Backstage and usually the cut off point is seventy odd. So I’ve gone down to Silver Birch.
Out of my list ive looked for proven stamina (26f), experience (10+ starts ) & ability to handle large fields (13+ runners).
My six are now,
6 points Iris De Balme
5 points State Of Play
4 points Arbor Supreme
3 points Ellerlie George
2 points Mr Pointment
My final selection is left to gut feelings and Madison Du Berlais picks up that point. Just missing out are Niche Market & Dream Alliance because of their high weights but are just fancied for a bet.
The table now looks like this
47 Gone To Lunch
35 Snowy Morning
23 Arbor Supreme
22 Hello Bud
21 Air Force One
19 Iris De Balme & Royal County Star
14 Cane Brake
11 State Of Play
9 Dream Alliance & Maljimar
8 Mr Pointment
6 Ballyfitz
5 Character Building
4 Backstage
3 Ellerlie George
2 Kilcrea Castle, Le Beau Bai & Parsons Legacy
1 Comply Or Die, Madison Du Berlais, Mon Mome, My Will & Niche Market.
I think that’s correct.
#579
February 19th, 2010 01:08
Neil S – thats some 6.
Daniel E – mighty work.
This weather is murder, I doubt if GTL will run this Sat. on heavy. We will have to wait another week or so to see whats the story on his muscles and form.
Snowy down to run Naas on Sunday, if he wins, we are laughing, if not I will have to take a good look at Eric’s Charm – matches every stat you love and also every stat you don’t. Could he be ambidextrous for just one day in his life – price down to 150/1.
Still think the horse with the best stats and form is Dream Alliance – Welsh Nat. his first chase in 22 months and wins it with 10.08. It could be the year that Hedge Hunter’s 11.01 is busted.
If Phil compresses this any more it won’t be a Hcap, they will all run with same wt. I think Ginger was right, top wt. 12st, add another foot to the fences, let 60 run and give the jockeys a big stick.
#580
February 19th, 2010 08:50
I can only apologise to Me6 and all of you for being unable to find a system that will pick out the first four horses in the National each year!!
* rolls eyes.
There is no perfect system – I am not suggesting the one I have cited is – but I think it can help.
Systemsman – the 2008 points are near the top of this page (comnment number 5 I think)
#581
February 19th, 2010 08:54
Minnehoma.
If EC is worth consideration he was 90 l behind Possol in a 25f chase not long back….and he (Possol) has won 2 hurdles pulling a cart (22f+) to preserve his chase mark no doubt….
While I think Possols price is a bit skinny I am sure there are better outsider prospects…Trust Fund for one for a place…
Projected forecast is for a very wet spring in the north west and I am more and more taken with the trend of the last five Irish winners being 138-144 and the probability of v soft ++ going…so King Johns Castle and Cane Break (and one or two others in that bracket..esp those meeting the great stats that people have produced…are looking to be on my final 6…
#582
February 19th, 2010 09:01
Pablo:
V fair point re the 2 out of 4 idea but I would put forward at least 2 unlucky runners up (without getting the dvd out) in last 20 yrs. Just So (yes a plodder) was behind everything that fell (esp first circuit) and at conservative estimate lost 15-20 lengths being hampered…how far did he lose by?
King Johns Castle is similar esp at 2nd Valentines (lost 4-5l at cons estimate) and he lost by 4l.
Of course if you are saying 2 out of first 4 wont fit any trends or stats then the Racing Post and a big pin are available in most well run homes!!
#583
February 19th, 2010 09:19
I am of the view that COD had plenty more in the tank and could have pulled it out to beat KJC if he had needed to.
#584
February 19th, 2010 09:38
war of attrition seems to be making a comeback on oddschecker!
hope the mouse is doing a u-turn, i really do. got a very good early ap bet on him and still think it is a good bet aswell.
#585
February 19th, 2010 09:41
I know Dan but we can get subjective about a horse doing just enough in front. COD was 5-6 l clear just past the elbow and had diminished to 4l by the line.
Here’s one to make you laugh. Trying to find a placed horse I looked at the ratings for the first 4 last 10 years and the mean average is 141. Interestingly the ages are 8yo – 9 9yo – 13 10yo – 9 11yo – 7 12yo – 2 (not good for Hello Bud)
So I go and look at the 141 rated 8 -10 year olds and it throws up total walking glue Bible Lord, Parsons Pistol and Razor Royal!!!
Ah well…
#586
February 19th, 2010 09:53
Stretch it to 11 year olds and it does include Irish Raptor…and Mr Pointment, although am totally put off that now it belongs to the Wilsons…
#587
February 19th, 2010 10:02
Surely who Mr P is trained by is more important than who he is owned by?
#588
February 19th, 2010 10:15
agreed DE, i really do think personally that if mr.p makes the cut he could if fit, and that is the question run a big race.i thought he ran well when pulling up at the last, but he is over a stone lighter this time i beleive, and at 150-1 has to be worth a small e-w nibble.
#589
February 19th, 2010 10:51
Daniel Edwards fantasic work and thanks for your imput – so “innovative”.
“Comply or Die – 7.08″ – 2008 and 2nd top score now thats impressive! So the scores were not just a one off. If the system comes up with the winner in say the top 8 (of which we could almost certainly discard one or two for sure on key stats)50% of the time I would be more than ahppy.
Daniel I know I’am pushing my luck but any chance of the 2007 scores or at least that for Silver Birch.
I intend to put this in my GN Black Book of trends/stats/tricks to use nexy year. Any chance Daniel that you could post the details for:
“It uses the last 20 years winners and their records prior to the race.”
Could you post the figures and the curent decimal points awared you are using for (i.e. So any horse aged 9-10 gets 0.625):
Age
Weight
Last run (days)
Season runs (I go from August onwards)
Chase runs
Chase wins
Class 1 chase place (i.e. the distance)
Best seasonal run
Number of falls/UR (Less than 4 is 19/20)
Ran at Cheltenham
Pushing my luck here and would understand if you wish to keep this to yourself after all the work you have done. But I have to say i am really impressed and would love to have a go at using it myself – we could cross check our work next year as its easy to make a small mistake and miss the winner (its happended to me more than once in the past).
I’am going to have to have another good look at these with your scores looking at which miss the key stats – the ones you just have to have that is.
Snowy Morning —- 7.58
Ellersie George — 7.08
Hello Bud ——– 6.95
Beat The Boys —- 6.88
Gone to Lunch —- 6.58
Cane Brake ——- 6.45
Parsons Pistol — 6.45
Ollie Magern —– 6.35
(6.35 or above is a 13/14 stat – RM the exception)
War of Attrition – 6.25
Joe Lively ——- 6.10
Ballyfitz ——– 6.08
Royal County Star – 6.05
Eric’s Charm —– 6.05
Already got SM,HB,GTL but that Ellersie George never heard of him till I looked him up after your post – very interesting to say the least. So thats this weeks research taken care of.
#590
February 19th, 2010 11:08
“Neil S says:
February 19, 2010 at 12:12 AM
Craig Thake from racing post suggests the winner will have an OR no greater than 148. Every winner in the past decade didn’t surpassed this mark.”
The OR 148 as the highest OR for the GN winner goes back to 1997 – 13years (and 1996 was only 149)so I agree with Craig Thake (or does he he agree with me and many others on this site)and posted to that effect some time ago.
In the Racing Post GN runners list Backstage (No 26)is the last named runner with OR148 so the winner in theory shoould be at or below it and includes at least the fisrt 9 in our poll so I think we are on the right tracks this year (I think NM turned out to be our “Rambo” this year but at least we know in time. Not his fault poor thing just way to much weight and who’s fault is that!!).
#591
February 19th, 2010 11:32
Ellersie George looks a non-stayer to me. I certainly wouldnt put any of my money on him unless he does something to change my view between now and raceday.
Re 2007 – I am happy to do that in due course. Will probably have to wait until the weekend.
As for your other request, I will have to think about that one. I dont have any problem sharing per se – nor do I think that it is such a magical system that it will cause great movements in the market….I just need to think about it a bit.
#592
February 19th, 2010 11:33
If you have the time & the interest systems can be useful to predict when a ‘trends’ horse might win.
On my system 30 points minimum is needed but sometimes 30 is not enough to be in the short list of top 3 (or equal) rated horses.
Hedgehunter was as great trends horse but only made the top 3 (or equal) in one year on my system even though he scored 30 or more in 4 of the 5 years he raced in GN.
Bindaree, on the other hand, got a lower score when he won (poor average scores that year) than when he was second.
All fun and games but doesn’t mean I’ll get the winner this year.
And the system scores won’t be completed until after Midlands National/Irish National. But I’ll post the short-listed runners then.
And it doesn’t include strike-rate!
Year; Position; Horse; Short-list?; Points
2001; BD; Amberleigh House; No; 23
2003; 3; Amberleigh House; No; 29
2004; 1; Amberleigh House; Yes; 35
2005; 10; Amberleigh House; No; 30
2006; P; Amberleigh House; No; 28
2002; 1; Bindaree; Yes; 30
2003; 6; Bindaree; Yes; 31
2004; U; Bindaree; No; 28
2005; 11; Bindaree; No; 27
2004; F; Hedgehunter; No; 31
2005; 1; Hedgehunter; Yes; 33
2006; 2; Hedgehunter; No; 31
2007; 9; Hedgehunter; No; 27
2008; 13; Hedgehunter; No; 30
#593
February 19th, 2010 12:16
Since the Second World War the Grand National has been dominated by eight-to-twelve year olds. The race has not seen a thirteen year old winner since SERGEANT MURPHY back in 1923 and SILVER BIRCH is virtually guaranteed not to break that trend in 2010. Currently 78th in the handicap SILVER BIRCH is in very real danger of not making the cut and therefore not getting a run in the race at all. Beyond that, the 2007 winner has not won a race since his heroics in the Grand National and is mainly seen on the cross country circuit nowadays. The handicapper has given SILVER BIRCH a thread of hope in making the final forty but to do so has allotted him an artificial handicap two pounds higher than the weight he should be carrying.
Subsequently The Rascal has his first elimination and must needs look at the younger sorts next.
If thirteen has been unlucky in recent Grand National history then seven has been no more fortunate. Mervyn Jones jockeyed seven-year-old BOGSKAR to victory in 1940, the last race before abandonment as a result of World War Two, but he was the last to do so on a horse that young. This creates a dilemma considering the potential 2010 Aintree field with ante-post favorite TRICKY TRICKSTER and well-backed POSSOL amongst twelve seven year olds entered.
Amongst them, The Rascal can quickly dismiss BELON GALE and POMME TIEPY who are rated so low in the handicap they haven’t a prayer of making the cut.
There are clues in the trainer’s comments following announcement of the weights too – Willie Mullins, trainer of youngsters DEUTSCHLAND and JAYO, stated that it may be a year too soon for the former and that JAYO might wait a year before embarking on the 36 furlong epic too. Neither has winning form over longer distances anyway, a lack that also scuppers the chances of FOLLOW THE PLAN and PIRAYA in The Rascal’s eyes.
With PALYPSO DE CREEK sweating on whether he’ll make the cut or not there’s a strong possibility that he will be given a run at the Cheltenham Festival. Historically Cheltenham runners have not fared well in the National, with just three weeks grace for recovery. So with age, Cheltenham and just two wins from his thirteen chase starts PALYPSO DE CREEK can also be ruled out for the time being.
THE PACKAGE is another game contender that doesn’t have the experience or wins to back up an otherwise tempting proposition. THE PACKAGE won tidily at Cheltenham in December and is like to go there again for the festival, putting further strain on The Rascal’s expectations for THE PACKAGE at Aintree.
ROULEZ COOL has been running point-to-points recently – his one handicap chase win came off an official rating of 130 last April but he showed quality when finishing runner up to RUSSIAN AROUND the following month, rated 142. For the Grand National, however, ROULEZ COOL has been rated 148 and his task just looks too huge and heavy for The Rascal.
The three remaining seven year olds are the one’s causing The Rascal some jitters. Will the age trend fall in 2010?
LE BEAU BAI has an impressive four wins from six chase outings, though none in a class 1 race, but he is The Rascal’s tip for the Blue Square Gold Cup on Saturday 20 and a win there would definitely put him in the frame for the Grand National. Currently set to carry 10-13 at Aintree LE BEAU BAI won’t want the top weights withdrawing and his inexperience could be his undoing when the dust settles.
POSSOL’s chances are not so intimidating to The Rascal. The lack of a class 1 chase win and an official rating that is set to burden him with 11-03, just a pound lighter than TRICKY TRICKSTER who looked so classy when beating Denman earlier this month. The Rascal can’t see POSSOL having the beating of all the others come April 10th.
TRICKY TRICKSTER would need to achieve more than being the first seven year old to win since 1940 – he would also be the first to carry more than 11-03 to victory since CORBIERE in 1983. He’s also entered for the Cheltenham Gold Cup which he must surely go to after beating DENMAN and that is the nail in the coffin as far as The Rascal is concerned.
VERMOUTH was six in 1916 when winning the National at a modified course in Gatwick (now the site of Gatwick Airport) and ALLY SLOPER had done so at Aintree the year before. GALANT NUIT is the only six year old entered this year but listed 97th in the handicap he has no chance of making the cut.
By the time April 10th 2010 comes around it will be 70 years since a horse not aged between 8 and 12 won the Grand National. If the trend does fall than The Rascal believes LE BEAU BAI will be the beneficiary.
But for the time being, The Rascal is looking elsewhere.
NEXT POST – KEY TREND (3 MILE + WINS)
#594
February 19th, 2010 12:28
What do you think of his, (Craig Thake’s) other stat that no more than 1 win in the season? That’s at least 10/10. Do any of you use that one?
#595
February 19th, 2010 12:33
Systemsman, Craig also says if they not won at 3 miles or more, forget them.
You got to go back to Gaye Trip (1970) for a winner who doesn’t meet this trend. Also were the myth you need a good 2 1/2 miler.
Although Red Marauder only got that stat through hurdles.
Craig’s selections are Iris De Balme, Gone To Lunch and one more (can’t recall at moment )
The form horses for me are Tricky Trickster, Niche Market and if the excepted going is right Dream Alliance. However they are not good prices. Maybe a win bet nearer the time.
#596
February 19th, 2010 12:41
I’m looking at his article from last year, does he have one published today then?
#597
February 19th, 2010 12:47
Jackie, if you mean Craig he puts an ante post view every time day after weights.
I remember when Amberleigh house won,his selection was one of the two pressing Hedgehunter.
I nearly had kittens because I left it unbacked.
#598
February 19th, 2010 12:54
Thanks, the one I’m reading is from last year’s rp day of gn. One 10/10 stat was no more than 1 win in the season
#599
February 19th, 2010 13:05
I cant say I use that stat – it doesnt seem to add up to me.
Sure if you have won two tough races, or two handicaps before the weights, then it would be difficult to win the race.
But if you’ve won a chase at the start of the season, got your rating up to 140 odd, and then won a hurdles race say, or a race over 3 miles, after weights day, I dont see why you cant win.
#600
February 19th, 2010 13:07
Systemsman (and all others who care)
I havent done the whole of 2007 yet. However, I can say for certain, the only horses with a score of more than 7 were;
Silver Birch
Homer Wells (who had just won the Theystes and the Bobbyjo, yet went off 33/1??!)
No horse got a perfect score that year.
Once ive finished it I will post up the rest of those that were above 6.35 and also 5.50.
#601
February 19th, 2010 13:08
Sorry, I should have said both horses got 7.08.
Silver Birch lost some points for having run at Cheltenham, and Homer Wells for the distance of his best C1 chase place.
#602
February 19th, 2010 13:10
Totally agree DE
This is one of those ‘coincidence’ stats rather than one that actually makes any sense
Possol has won two races but does that mean he can’t win the GN? Would have he been better off coming second lto?
#603
February 19th, 2010 13:16
Sorry can’t agree re the ownership/training fact of Mr Pointment and Cerium. The Wilsons only buy once high rated chasers for their ‘day out’ in the GC and GN. They do not run them anywhere else (as in a well thought out prep race/s for the GN) just to preserve their mark so they ‘get a run’.
As said before the Wilsons are not patrons or supporters of the sport they just like their day out at Chelt and Aintree. From my understand of the rich list they could give the David J’s, Graham W’s, Trevor H etc a good run for their money …if they wished to invest in the sport or a true horse rather than one or two that fir their very limited ‘desire’.
One assumes the trainer acts totally on their advice…lets face it to have them stood in their boxes apart from 2 races must make it easier for him…. so am afraid it makes who it is (trainer) not even a factor. I assume decent trainers wouldn’t give the Wilsons ethos the time of day….
#604
February 19th, 2010 13:26
The fact he hasn’t had an ideal prep is a factor – the names under the heading ‘owner’ on the racecard will make no difference to me.
And as for their ‘contribution’ to racing – it’s their money, their horse, they can do what they like with him as far as im concerned, so long as they’re not cruel to the horse.
#605
February 19th, 2010 13:33
Its cool we can differ on this.
I personally think it is ‘cruel’ to ask a horse who is probably on the decline to give it no prep and then run it in the GC at levels with the likes of Kato and Denman then send it to Aintree…and many many people in the sport (who know far better than you or me) are very anti the Wilsons ethos…
#606
February 19th, 2010 13:40
suppose it isn’t exactly fair to ask him to go mix with Denman and Kauto etc one day and then run at Aintree 3 weeks later.
Not sure I would go as far to say cruel though – all depends how the jockey treats him on the day/days I guess.
#607
February 19th, 2010 14:18
TREND BREAKERS – PART ONE
KEY TREND – AGE
Since the Second World War the Grand National has been dominated by eight-to-twelve year olds. The race has not seen a thirteen year old winner since SERGEANT MURPHY back in 1923 and SILVER BIRCH is virtually guaranteed not to break that trend in 2010. Currently 78th in the handicap SILVER BIRCH is in very real danger of not making the cut and therefore not getting a run in the race at all. Beyond that, the 2007 winner has not won a race since his heroics in the Grand National and is mainly seen on the cross country circuit nowadays. The handicapper has given SILVER BIRCH a thread of hope in making the final forty but to do so has allotted him an artificial handicap two pounds higher than the weight he should be carrying.
Subsequently The Rascal has his first elimination and must needs look at the younger sorts next.
If thirteen has been unlucky in recent Grand National history then seven has been no more fortunate. Mervyn Jones jockeyed seven-year-old BOGSKAR to victory in 1940, the last race before abandonment as a result of World War Two, but he was the last to do so on a horse that young. This creates a dilemma considering the potential 2010 Aintree field with ante-post favorite TRICKY TRICKSTER and well-backed POSSOL amongst twelve seven year olds entered.
Amongst them, The Rascal can quickly dismiss BELON GALE and POMME TIEPY who are rated so low in the handicap they haven’t a prayer of making the cut.
There are clues in the trainer’s comments following announcement of the weights too – Willie Mullins, trainer of youngsters DEUTSCHLAND and JAYO, stated that it may be a year too soon for the former and that JAYO might wait a year before embarking on the 36 furlong epic too. Neither has winning form over longer distances anyway, a lack that also scuppers the chances of FOLLOW THE PLAN and PIRAYA in The Rascal’s eyes.
With PALYPSO DE CREEK sweating on whether he’ll make the cut or not there’s a strong possibility that he will be given a run at the Cheltenham Festival. Historically Cheltenham runners have not fared well in the National, with just three weeks grace for recovery. So with age, Cheltenham and just two wins from his thirteen chase starts PALYPSO DE CREEK can also be ruled out for the time being.
THE PACKAGE is another game contender that doesn’t have the experience or wins to back up an otherwise tempting proposition. THE PACKAGE won tidily at Cheltenham in December and is like to go there again for the festival, putting further strain on The Rascal’s expectations for THE PACKAGE at Aintree.
ROULEZ COOL has been running point-to-points recently – his one handicap chase win came off an official rating of 130 last April but he showed quality when finishing runner up to RUSSIAN AROUND the following month, rated 142. For the Grand National, however, ROULEZ COOL has been rated 148 and his task just looks too huge and heavy for The Rascal.
The three remaining seven year olds are the one’s causing The Rascal some jitters. Will the age trend fall in 2010?
LE BEAU BAI has an impressive four wins from six chase outings, though none in a class 1 race, but he is The Rascal’s tip for the Blue Square Gold Cup on Saturday 20 and a win there would definitely put him in the frame for the Grand National. Currently set to carry 10-13 at Aintree LE BEAU BAI won’t want the top weights withdrawing and his inexperience could be his undoing when the dust settles.
POSSOL’s chances are not so intimidating to The Rascal. The lack of a class 1 chase win and an official rating that is set to burden him with 11-03, just a pound lighter than TRICKY TRICKSTER who looked so classy when beating Denman earlier this month. The Rascal can’t see POSSOL having the beating of all the others come April 10th.
TRICKY TRICKSTER would need to achieve more than being the first seven year old to win since 1940 – he would also be the first to carry more than 11-03 to victory since CORBIERE in 1983. He’s also entered for the Cheltenham Gold Cup which he must surely go to after beating DENMAN and that is the nail in the coffin as far as The Rascal is concerned.
VERMOUTH was six in 1916 when winning the National at a modified course in Gatwick (now the site of Gatwick Airport) and ALLY SLOPER had done so at Aintree the year before. GALANT NUIT is the only six year old entered this year but listed 97th in the handicap he has no chance of making the cut.
By the time April 10th 2010 comes around it will be 70 years since a horse not aged between 8 and 12 won the Grand National. If the trend does fall than The Rascal believes LE BEAU BAI will be the beneficiary.
But for the time being, The Rascal is looking elsewhere.
#608
February 19th, 2010 14:20
TREND BREAKERS – PART TWO
KEY TREND – 3 MILE + WINS
GAY TRIP won the 1970 Aintree Grand National without having previously proven his stamina by winning a long distance race over three miles or further, but it’s not been done since. The last seven winners had all done so (in chases) at least twice and only four of the last twenty had records inferior to two wins in chases over 3 miles or more.
RED MARAUDER, who won in the bog of 2001, was the last not to have a chase win over the required distance but he had bagged a long distance hurdles win. RED MARAUDER’s exception of not winning over three miles in a chase saves the trends bacon of several entries this year – namely ACCORDING TO JOHN, OFFICIER DE RESERVE, MUMBLES HEAD, ROYAL ROSA and IRISH INVADER but there are plenty that haven’t done so in a hurdle race either and should (on trends analysis) be dismissed.
Those who can be summarily dismissed due to being too far down the handicap to make the cut are GLENFINN CAPTAIN, FAASEL, SIZING AUSTRALIA, DUERS, PAK JACK, KINGS ADVOCATE, ANOTHERCOPPERCOAST, COSSACK DANCER, WEE ROBBIE and OFFALY.
This leaves eleven others to reckon on – David Pipe has said that PABLO DU CHARMIL will go straight to the National after suffering a cut at Cheltenham. This means he will go into the race following a 70 day break, unprecedented of a winner in the last twenty years. His fourth and fallen form this season does not set the world alight and carrying 11-2 The Rascal’s buttons for PABLO remain un-pushed.
MADE IN TAIPAN was quoted by trainer Tom Mullins as being ‘a speculative entry’ and with the handicapper rating him several pounds higher than in Ireland and on a par with TRICKY TRICKSTER it seems doubtful MADE IN TAIPAN will go to post.
NEW ALCO will be going to the Cheltenham Festival but only has two wins from eighteen chase starts and if he does line up at Aintree having raced at Cheltenham he will have had just one run in 717 days. Not a recipe for Grand National success.
CERIUM was last seen running to an impressive fifth in the 2009 National but has been given the same handicap mark as last year, six pounds higher than his ‘real’ racing weight today. This implies that he has been favored by the handicapper in trying to get him within sight of making the cut (and thus adding a few more pounds to up his pecking-order) but it will not assist his chances on the day and the lack of a run this season leaves no doubt in The Rascal’s mind that CERIUM can’t win.
CONNA CASTLE has been over-exposed this season, with nine runs already (and no wins) – The Rascal deems it unlikely that CONNA CASTLE will have any legs left for the Grand National.
KING JOHN’S CASTLE and LENNON have never won a chase handicap and their season form to date has been disappointing. KING JOHN’S CASTLE is twelve pounds better off with COMPLY OR DIE despite running him a close second in the 2008 National but with just one career chase win from fourteen attempts and no win at all since March 2008 The Rascal will not be joining those clambering to back him.
MALJIMAR has struggled to win off his current handicap mark of 142 and is a horse mostly seen at Cheltenham or Newbury – his one outing at Aintree saw him pulled up last year in the John Smith’s Handicap Chase and his attempts over long distances have seen him make blunders or get into trouble. For a notable ten year old two career chase wins is disappointing and the best was off an official rating of 126. Too much for MALJIMAR to do, in The Rascal’s eyes.
BIBLE LORD’s recent form is a major concern going into the National, he has struggled off a revised rating of 143 in his last three outings and consequently enters the National off a mark of 141 which may serve better. BIBLE LORD, though, has always seemed to weaken over distances beyond 24 furlongs and surely won’t make the four and a half miles at Aintree.
With an eighty per cent strike rate (top three places) from ten chases KILCREA CASTLE is appealing – in his one run at over three miles he was a creditable second behind CASEY JONES and ahead of other National entries ONE COOL COOKIE, CHELSEA HARBOUR and ROYAL COUNTY STAR. Lightly raced KILCREA CASTLE seems to track the leaders but make no impression on the winner, which is certainly a worry, and is best watched in the Racing Post Chase at the end of February. With a failure to win in top company and no win for over a year it is still just a fine red line through KICREA CASTLE’s name at present.
The best supported horse of those without a win over three miles or further is BALLYHOLLAND, winner of the Galway Plate last July off an official rating of 131. He enters the Grand National on 148, three pounds higher than his current Irish rating of 145. There are already doubts that he will stay the distance without the significant burden he will have to carry at Aintree and The Rascal has no reason to think he can overcome a very competitive National field this year.
So, forty years since a Grand National winner has not previously won at 24 furlongs (3 miles) or further and there is no real concern that this might happen in 2010. But, if it does, The Rascal suggests that KICREA CASTLE will be the one to do it.
#609
February 19th, 2010 14:21
Daniel, it all depends on what sort of a race they have but can it really be a negative to run at Cheltenham Festival? And we compiled a list last year, not sure where it is, about GN winners who ran at Cheltenham since early 80′s. I think it went something like, Grittar, Corbiere, (West Tip?) Rhyme N Reason, Seagram, Miinnehoma, Rough Quest, Bindaree, Silver Birch, that’s 8or9/27.
In last 30 years, Rubstic, Hallo Dandy, Rough Quest, Papillon, Montys Pass and Mon Mome all ran their last preps within 21 days of GN.
Last year, collectively, I think we were ‘pampering’!! our top picks last year, didn’t want them to run here or there, but they’ve got to be fit as that number of furlongs table – ‘TC’ I think- posted seemed to suggest. Rubstic, Aldaniti, Seagram, Hedgehunter and Comply Or Die all won their last prep whch were chases. Aldaniti, Hedgehunter, Comply Or Die all had at least six weeks off, Seagram had 3 weeks off, Rubstic only carried 10-0.
#610
February 19th, 2010 14:34
You’re right Crisp – the ‘ran at Cheltenham one’ isn’t the strongest stat. I make it 2/10 and 4/20 that have.
For that reason I would never rule a horse out with a run at Cheltenham.
BUT, on the flip side, 8/10 and 16/20 is enough of a trend for it to warrant being a factor, in my opinion.
AS you can probably work out for yourselves from the above fractions, the difference in my table is half a point. A horse isn’t going to fail due to a run at Cheltenham alone (see Silver Birch still being joint 1st in the points table) but I think it should definately be weighted into considerations. Would you want a 12 year old, with its only C1 chase place being at 24f,say, having run at Cheltenham, as your main bet say?
It would put it just below a score of 6 in my table, assuming all others thing were in its favour.
#611
February 19th, 2010 14:49
Sorry, that should of course read
“You’re right Crisp – the ‘ran at Cheltenham one’ isn’t the strongest stat. I make it 2/10 and 6/20 that have.
…
BUT, on the flip side, 8/10 and 14/20 is enough of a trend for it to warrant being a factor, in my opinion.”
#612
February 19th, 2010 14:50
Good post Rascal.
#613
February 19th, 2010 15:25
TREND BREAKERS – PART THREE
KEY TREND – CHASE PRIZE MONEY
The last horse not to meet the ‘previously won £17,000 or more in a chase win’ trend was PARTY POLITICS in 1992. With this falling within The Rascal’s last-twenty-winners analysis it might be said he his cheating his own system by ruling out current contenders who also fail to meet it. However, inevitable inflation has to be given its dues on this one – PARTY POLITICS banked £99,000 for his Grand National victory whereas MON MOME’s prize fund breached half a million. Nevertheless, as a 16/16 trend, it’s worth holding on to and should savage the hopes of another fourteen contenders.
Again, due to their place in the handicap, there are those that won’t get a run – MUMBLES HEAD, OFFICIER DE RESERVE, CHIEF DAN GEORGE, CHIARO, ACCORDING TO JOHN and LORUM LEADER.
Of the others ROYAL ROSA hasn’t won since December 2006 and has never won a handicap race, one win from sixteen chases is sorely disappointing and doesn’t merit support for the Grand National in The Rascal’s eyes.
According to their trainers OODACHEE is more likely to be seen in the Topham Chase and DOONEY’S GATE is best at distances two miles shorter. The former has a confidence sapping strike rate and DOONEY’S GATE is short on experience to pose a threat at Aintree.
Others need huge improvement on their best OR wins – RAZOR ROYALE, FLINTOFF and COE needing winning performances immensely superior to those achieved so far.
This leaves BALLYFITZ and ABBEYBRANEY and both of these can be easily dismissed as well. Both are lacking in chase runs and, whilst ABBEYBRANEY’s win rate is poor, BALLYFITZ has a correspondingly substandard strike rate. BALLYFITZ has not won in top company and ABBEYBRANEY has only placed in a top class race.
The Rascal finds little to inspire him to back either of the pair and sticks with KILCREA CASTLE from his previous trend as the more likely to break the £17k trend as well as the three mile trend than BALLYFITZ or ABBEYBRANEY are to break this alone.
#614
February 19th, 2010 16:00
Just been to your site Rascal, found it bookmarked from last yr, suppose its cheating but I couldn’t wait to see result of the no messin’ rapscallion jury.
Interesting breakdown/up, like the fact that Trust Fund was hanging around for a while, forget what he eliminated for?! just brushed through as real busy, would put up your site but don’t want to spoil the fun here!
Just one thing are you going to factor in weight update now, wondering if you may swap VV for MM in that top10.
#615
February 19th, 2010 16:03
TREND BREAKERS – PART FOUR
KEY TREND – CHASE RUNS
A minimum of ten chase runs is often bandied about as a key National trend but it only supports the last fifteen winners. The Rascal considers the last twenty and 8 is the minimum number of chase runs a National winner has needed prior to the race in this period. A saving grace for the likes of BACKSTAGE, BERONI, BIG FELLA THANKS, EQUUS MAXIMUS, TRABOLGAN, MERIGO and OVER THE CREEK (though noted, of course).
Amongst the five entries with fewer TREACLE and OLD BENNY won’t make the cut so just three left to ponder on to see if a trend breaker lurks amongst them.
Of these, WHINSTONE BOY is least likely to be seen at the start line due to his position in the handicap. Coupling that with seven runs already this season and The Rascal cannot see WHINSTONE BOY being anything other than exhausted and past his best come April.
According to his trainer KORNATI KID is unlikely to run and season form would suggest finishing the course would be the best that could be hoped for.
SEVEN IS MY NUMBER is one of The Rascal’s favorite horses but in his first season of chasing is unlikely to make an impression at Aintree and after seven runs already his season will surely close at Cheltenham in March.
Again failing to find a potential trend breaker here The Rascal has 56 remaining of 110 and only two, in LE BEAU BAI and KILCREA CASTLE, that look able to break the trends. But only four trends have been covered so there’s still plenty more chopping to do and potential trend breakers to find…
#616
February 19th, 2010 16:09
Thanks KJ – stuff I’m posting on here now will be uploaded to my site (with extras) as a post weights guide in the next few days. I hope you’ll check out both. I’ve been reeling from the announcement of the weights somewhat – it’s scuppered me on DREAM ALLIANCE and I am being very careful that what I post next will be on the money. Want to leave it as a surprise, for the moment (hope you don’t mind) but, at present, my main tip is NOT Dream Alliance or Gone To Lunch. I’ll give you that much
#617
February 19th, 2010 17:14
yeah, I’m still gurning here! theres 10+ horses in the 11-1 to 11-7 bracket I DID fancy to win that could still well place, pretty impossible winners now, but maybe one of the many will break free from the cart and grow wings
Think theres an advantage for those with weight bearing experience and experienced course distance, err GN, MM looks more appealing now, although directly compared with CODs 11-6 last yr still looks too hard, but with a good prep unlike last yr I still can’t rule out COD either! I would say My Will possible but he doesn’t like winning for a start. SOP looks better.
Think they could all finish in a line behind something with the brakes off! its still killing me what! If its GTL I would be amazed now. maljimar hmm, kjc another form lacking shocker, Iris comeback? Ballyfitz late developer?..must look into this Kilcrea Castle.
#618
February 19th, 2010 17:16
I mean 11-2 mouse!
#619
February 19th, 2010 17:24
Based on Daniel E’s current ratings on horses I like -(selfish I know) -
Snowy Morning —- 7.58 – 20/20 chance
Gone to Lunch —- 6.58 – 9/20 chance
Eric’s Charm —– 6.05 – 6/20 chance
Dream Alliance — 5.83 – 4/20 chance
Char. Building – 5.68 – 4/20 chance
Air Force One – no rating
Parsons Legacy – no rating
#620
February 19th, 2010 18:09
Early days yet and points can go up or down (things can and will change a lot I’d expect) but here’s how my ratings compare with DE’s at this stage – 32 is normally enough for top 3 (30 in a bad year)
DE rating; My rating; Horse
7.58; 29; Snowy Morning
7.08; 27; Ellersie George
6.95; 28; Hello Bud
6.88; 22; Beat The Boys
6.58; 31; Gone to Lunch
6.45; 26; Cane Brake
6.45; 24; Parsons Pistol
6.35; 29; Ollie Magern
6.25; 32; War of Attrition
6.10; 26; Joe Lively
6.08; 29; Ballyfitz
6.05; 28; Royal County Star
6.05; 27; Eric’s Charm
5.83; 29; Dream Alliance
5.78; 28; One Cool Cookie
5.73; 30; Notre Pere
5.73; 29; Niche Market
5.68; 23; Character Building
Top 3 or equal to date (the ones I have to back according to system)
32; War Of Attrition
31; Gone To Lunch
31; Le Beau Bai
31; My Will
31; Mon Mome
So these would be the ones I would back if the race was tomorrow (plus already backed Cane Brake) – but luckily it isn’t!
#621
February 19th, 2010 18:29
Nice one Pablo, have you a rating for AFO or Parsons.
#622
February 19th, 2010 18:53
AFO 28
Parsons Legacy 23
But like I say some have more exposed form this season which may be a good or a bad thing!
The less exposed ones this season (with fewer runs) still have time to catch up
Silver Birch I think would have been a good example of a late mover
So really ratings can be misleading at this stage – reason why I am playing late
#623
February 19th, 2010 19:12
Thanks Pablo, I see Snowy is out of the Naas race on Sunday and only 5 runners in GTL race.
#624
February 19th, 2010 19:31
“Daniel Edwards says:
February 19, 2010 at 1:07 PM
Systemsman (and all others who care)
I havent done the whole of 2007 yet. However, I can say for certain, the only horses with a score of more than 7 were;
Silver Birch
Homer Wells (who had just won the Theystes and the Bobbyjo, yet went off 33/1??!)
No horse got a perfect score that year.”
Bloody hell Daniel just think of the money we could have made in the last two years (well i did in 2008 anyway as many others did)holidays in the med sun for all the family!
Now dont tell me that Numbersixvalverde in 2006 had 6.3points or more, that would be something!
#625
February 19th, 2010 19:39
oooh Daniel Edwards. I am liking your list!
#626
February 19th, 2010 19:51
“miinnehoma says:
February 19, 2010 at 5:24 PM
Based on Daniel E’s current ratings on horses I like -(selfish I know) -
Snowy Morning —- 7.58 – 20/20 chance
Gone to Lunch —- 6.58 – 9/20 chance
Eric’s Charm —– 6.05 – 6/20 chance”
As an example what does 9/20 chance mean? (9 what? – 20what?)
Sorry to be a pain.
#627
February 19th, 2010 20:01
20 = last 20 winners.
9/20 = 9 horses won with 6.58 or less in the 20 years etc.
The points, on this system, for the last 20 winners are as follows
2009 – Mon Mome ——— 6.88
2008 – Comply or Die —- 7.08
2007 – Silver Birch —– 7.08
2006 – Numberisxvalverde -7.58
2005 – Hedgehunter —— 6.88
2004 – Amberleigh House – 6.35
2003 – Montys Pass —— 6.48
2002 – Bindaree ——— 6.45
2001 – Red Marauder —– 4.30
2000 – Papillon ——— 6.68
1999 – Bobbyjo ———- 6.68
1998 – Earth Summit —– 7.58
1997 – Lord Gylenne —– 7.58
1996 – Rough Quest —— 5.13
1995 – Royal Athlete —- 6.95
1994 – Miinnehoma ——- 5.55
1992 – Party Politics — 6.95
1991 – Seagram ———- 4.45
1990 – Mr Frisk ——— 5.85
1898 – Little Polvier — 6.05
#628
February 19th, 2010 20:24
If GTL runs on Saturday it will be his 6th. Hcap. – spot-on.
#629
February 19th, 2010 20:48
Can GTL get a 1/2/3 in the “real season” raher than the back end of last? If he’s fit its the GN for sure (and watch his price crash).
All eyes on the 2.00 at Wincantoon – come on GTL you know you can do it! (the stable should should spend the next 12 hours next to GTL just repeating 1,2 – 1,2 3; 1,2 – 1,2,3 into his ear! (on second thoughts the horse needs some bloody sleep if he’s going to get that 1,2 3, so I think we’ll just have the stable lad/lass staying up all night repeating it!)
and the
3.35 Haydock
and the
3.40 Fairyhouse
#630
February 19th, 2010 21:41
Hi Guys,Im a new kid on the Blog and correct me if im wrong,but most nat winners have won a handicap chase before winning the big prize.GTL hasn’t so if it wins 2mrw will it have the PERFECT profile to win the national?
#631
February 19th, 2010 22:34
Please could someone tell me the last CHESTNUT gelding to win the national?
#632
February 19th, 2010 22:41
If Gone to Lunch can’t beat two out of 5 when one of those has been off the track for a year and was no great shakes a year ago then he doesn’t deserve to be in the GN. I’ll be watching closely to see a decent run and return to any kind of form from a fit looking horse and not coming off the bridle and needing reminders after one circuit.
Lots of rain this morning, then dry day and a small touch more rain tonight will be touch and go on the inspection tomorrow, shocked if Pipe runs Madison in what is likely to be very heavy going. If GTL beats Madi tomorrow he will become a major player for me, bit all or nothing though!
#633
February 20th, 2010 08:51
Willie Mullins in his Friday blog on go racing
“Snowy Morning has got 10st 13lb, so at least he is below the 11st mark, though it’s still a lot of weight for a 10-year-old. The way he jumps around Aintree, if we could get him there in the form he was when he finished third two years ago, I’d like to think he’d have a chance again.”
#634
February 20th, 2010 10:46
No racing at Wincanton today, a real shame. Good news is Haydock is go though.
#635
February 20th, 2010 11:13
So where does GTL head now? Any entries? Still some time to the GN – how many days now?
#636
February 20th, 2010 11:54
Admin noticed the trendpredictor on the webbsite isn’t working, found it extremely usefull last year. Give me 8 horses including Mon Mome (Raging.
Rascal, great work what is your website?
#637
February 20th, 2010 12:10
TREND BREAKERS – PART FIVE
KEY TREND – WIN RATE
Of the last twenty winners only LITTLE POLVEIR had less than three chase wins under his belt prior to victory but a full score had win-rates (wins per race) of 12.5% or more and only three went into the race having won less than 20% of their previous chase outings (LITTLE POLVEIR, MONTY’S PASS and AMBERLEIGH HOUSE.
The Rascal uses the 12.5% win rate rule as the decisive trend here and the two to be eliminated for failing to meet this minimum might provoke a ripple of shock. NICHE MARKET and BIG FELLA THANKS are among the leading fancies for this year’s Grand National following NICHE MARKET’s Irish National win and BIG FELLA THANKS astonishing all with his sixth place in the Aintree National despite being a novice chaser.
For those that doubt the 12.5% win-rate trend both NICHE MARKET and BIG FELLA THANKS fail to meet the three chase wins trend as well (which has been true of the last nineteen winners).
NICHE MARKET is clearly coming into his prime but has still only placed in 6 of his seventeen chase outings and is far from consistent. The Irish National was won off an official rating of 136 and carrying 10-05, NICHE has been allocated 152 for the Grand National and will carry at least 11-04. The 5 in NICHE MARKET’s season form is actually last place when he tired at Newbury at the end of December. Granted the conditions were testing there but The Rascal thinks NICHE MARKET needs too many things to go in his favour to pull off an Irish/Aintree double carrying 11-04 and any significant rain will scupper his chances completely.
BIG FELLA THANKS has been one of The Rascal’s fancies since last April but when unseating his rider for the second time in his short career at Kempton last time that fancy was crushed. With just one chase win and a ten pound improvement required from when winning at Doncaster over a year ago The Rascal can only see BIG FELLA THANKS placing if there’s an uncontrollable amount of rain rendering the ground soft or heavy.
So no twenty year trend breakers here as The Rascal can see the likes of MY WILL, VIC VENTURI and SNOWY MORNING creating more of a stir despite inadequate win rates below 20% – that would only be a 5 out of 5 trend broken, those below 12.5% have little to no chance in The Rascal’s opinion.
#638
February 20th, 2010 12:27
Bang on form Laventure, winner of Borders Nat in Dec, loves heavy, loves distance, feather weight, likes Haydock, former Welsh Nat winner, 5th in this race in 08 and 2nd in 07 – is THE value bet of the day in the Blue Square.
#639
February 20th, 2010 13:02
I feel not looking good for GTL. Possible muscle problems, out of form and trainer prev preferring Ayr.
Today’s no run I feel may make stable decide too tall an order to be ready for GN fences and test and ain for 2011.
#640
February 20th, 2010 13:06
TREND BREAKERS – PART SIX 5
KEY TREND – STRIKE RATE
LITTLE POLVEIR was again the least consistent of the last twenty Grand National winners in the amount of top three places achieved in his chase runs leading up to the Grand National. With a strike rate of 37.5% he is the only horse with a sub 40% score and is amongst five winners failing to score in less than half of their chase outings.
A 50% rule would leave ERIC’S CHARM, ROYAL COUNTY STAR, MON MOME (this year, not last), HELLO BUD and VIC VENTURI out of contention. Does that cause panic? Don’t worry, The Rascal sticks to the 20/20 trend and 37.5% is the cut off.
Punters should definitely be looking for significant improvement then from BLACK APALACHI, PREISTS LEAP, CHELSEA HARBOUR, OLLIE MAGERN, IRISH RAPTOR and KNOWHERE.
KNOWHERE will struggle to make the cut and has disappointing form this season, he’s not completed the Grand National in three attempts and there’s little to suggest he will do so in 2010.
BLACK APALACHI carries 11-06 this year, a pound up from when unseating at Aintree last year and twelve pounds up from when falling in 2008. When winning the Becher’s Chase over National fences in 2008 BLACK APALACHI’s official rating was 138, sixteen pounds below his current rating of 154. He did win off 146 subsequently but although BLACK APALACHI will be well supported again this year The Rascal can’t see him shrugging off the other 39 with that amount of weight on his back.
PREIST’S LEAP is another that will struggle to win off his current mark and he does like the heavy ground. Though the handicap rating allotted suggests he can improve on 14th last year his three outings this year read nowhere, nowhere, nowhere. Barring a 2001 slog it is a leap of immense faith to suggest PREISTS LEAP will triumph in 2010.
OLLIE MAGERN is not the horse of old, without a win since 2007, and won’t be able to front run the entire field. With form in big fields lacking OLLIE MAGERN can’t make The Rascal’s shortlist.
As the winner of the Topham Chase IRISH RAPTOR has been allotted six pounds more than his true rating in order to help him make the cut. Yet he was struggling off 138 in his last two starts so an eight pound improvement on the Topham win seems very unlikely.
This leaves CHELSEA HARBOUR as the entry most likely to break the strike rate trend. On a nice weight of 10-11 compared to 11-8 twelve months ago he may relish the weight reduction, despite it still being seven pounds above his last winning mark. With just seven places from 30 chase starts, four career falls and three unseated riders, it is by no means a strong selection but any return to winning form would spark The Rascal’s interest.
It is the weakest trend breaker possibility of those suggested so far but joining LE BEAU BAI and KILCREA CASTLE on The Rascal’s long-list is CHELSEA HARBOUR. With 59 eliminations from 110 entries The Rascal’s search continues…
#641
February 20th, 2010 14:12
TREND BREAKERS – PART 7
KEY TREND – SEASON FORM
Recent history shows that Grand National winners have proven their credentials in the season of their victory by placing third or better in at least one of their preparatory runs. It is a twenty from twenty trend and though candidates have time to prove themselves it serves an ante post strategy not to back them until they do.
This unseats the chances of COMPLY OR DIE, IRISH INVADER, NOZIC, DARKNESS, LOUPING D’AINAY, CHARACTER BUILDING, STATE OF PLAY, MR POINTMENT, IRIS DE BALME, PARSONS LEGACY, TRABOLGAN, OFFSHORE ACCOUNT, MERIGO and OVER THE CREEK.
It is safe to assume that TRABOLGAN, OFFSHORE ACCOUNT, MERIGO and OVER THE CREEK so there are only ten entries still standing who can break this trend.
IRISH INVADER has been given an extremely hard task by the handicapper. He will have to surpass a winning mark of 139 by fourteen pounds, has not been seen since last year’s National, has only ever won over three miles in a hurdle race and has yet to place in top company. Very little appeal in IRISH INVADER this year.
Others not seen for some time are DARKNESS, LOUPING D’AINAY and MR POINTMENT. Any one of these would become the first eleven year old winner since 2001 and, if that race is dismissed due to the increment weather, the first since MIINNEHOMA back in 1994.
LOUPING D’AINAY can be discounted having never won a chase handicap in Britain or Ireland – he is French-bred and raced in France (but not since 2008) and has no Grand National credentials.
The doubts about DARKNESS last year were that his jumping can be suspect and, true enough, although he finished DARKNESS blundered badly towards the end and is three pounds higher on official ratings despite being unseen since. That was his only completion in three attempts at 30 furlongs or further and The Rascal cannot see him being first past the post this year or any year in the Aintree Grand National.
MR POINTMENT’s last win was at Aintree in the Becher’s Chase in 2007 but he is a winter horse and has only come out in spring on two occasions, pulled up in the 2008 Grand National and weakening quickly to sixth of seven over 26 furlongs a month earlier. Horses win the Grand National as they hit their best and not when they’re past it so The Rascal does not expect a last hurrah from MR POINTMENT without a good (indeed without any) sort of prep season.
According to his trainer PARSONS LEGACY is unlikely to make the race and IRIS DE BALME is sweating on making the cut too. PARSONS LEGACY has always been fancied as a great trends horse for the Grand National but only turned up for the first time last year and fell at Becher’s Brook to the groans of his followers. PARSONS LEGACY has been second from last in both of his season starts and though the weight allotted looks tempting if PARSONS LEGACY does make the cut he is unlikely to show up and can be discounted for now.
IRIS DE BALME does look interesting but needs plenty to drop out to get in the race. The 2008 Scottish National winner is now three pounds lower in the ratings since then and his fifth place finish at Wetherby in early February was his first run since April 2008 and can be treated with confidence. A top three finish in the next few months would give IRIS DE BALME a big chance of victory were he to make the cut. Hold fire for now.
Despite COMPLY OR DIE’s immense achievement in finishing second last year MON MOME had him well beaten. COMPLY OR DIE has yet to win off a rating higher than the 139 allotted for his Grand National victory two years ago and despite a one pound concession on his rating last year there are others treated better and the feeling is he will take another beating from someone carrying less than 11-05.
CHARACTER BUILDING and STATE OF PLAY’s season returns have both been disappointing. The form of CHARACTER BUILDING’s Kim Muir win last year has not been proven – second placed PRETTY STAR has been disappointing since and The Rascal can’t see CHARACTER BUILDING overcoming the six pound penalty following injury and a lacklustre return.
STATE OF PLAY can never be totally discounted but his last win was back in November 2008 and pulling up in the Hennessy most recently was very disappointing. The 10-11 allotted looks lenient, though, after carrying 11-2 to fourth place last year. Another run is required before STATE OF PLAY carries any support from The Rascal but he can only be classed as a potential winner so must needs make the final list.
NOZIC has just one win at three miles or more, has not made the frame in key races and surely is not the best of those carrying more than 11-01.
So, although they may yet run into form this season there are cases to be made for IRIS DE BALME and STATE OF PLAY even if they don’t. Both are on The Rascal’s final list of potential winners but on current form they would be trend breakers.
#642
February 20th, 2010 14:45
Trends seem to point to rematch of Dream Alliance and Le Beau Bai in Blue Square. I’ve gone for DA, this is 2f shorter which should suit him more than LBB, he was 2nd to Denman in a Hennessy, 27f, after all, and likes testing conditions. Mon Mome for a place.
Showlad, you maybe right about Gone To Lunch, just thought everything, weight etc, was coming right for him.
Rascal, I enjoy reading your stuff.
(Little Polveir did race in more than 8 chases. Definitely won at least 3 chases including 29f chase at Sandown in ’84 and Scots National in ’87. 11th and 8th in ’84 and 87 Welsh Nationals, don’t know what his chase win place strike rate was)
Putting War Of Attrition into horses with best trends most likely to win list this year.
Just to recap, A is top5 Hennessy, top3 Irish, Scots, Welsh Nationals, top 2 Grand Sefton, Topham, Hunter, Bechers chases over the GN fences. 17/20, 14/15.
A; COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 11-11-05; NICHE MARKET (FR) 9-11-4;
DREAM ALLIANCE 9-11-03; MY WILL (FR) 10-11-02;
AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 8-10-12;CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 10-10-11;
GONE TO LUNCH (IRE) 10-10-11; STATE OF PLAY 10-10-11;
ROYAL COUNTY STAR (IRE) 11-10-10;OLLIE MAGERN 12-10-09;
IRISH RAPTOR (IRE) 11-10-07;MR POINTMENT (IRE) 11-10-07;
HELLO BUD (IRE) 12-10-06; IRIS DE BALME (FR) 10-10-06;
TRUST FUND (IRE) 12-10-06; FLINTOFF (USA) 9-10-05;
PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 12-10-05;
3 chase wins at 24f or more including one at 28f or more
B; CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 10-10-11;ERIC’S CHARM (FR) 12-10-09;
those well tipped in our poll,I’m sure WOA will be if we knew if he was running.
C; WAR OF ATTRITION 11-11-01 BACKSTAGE (FR) 8-11-00; SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 10-10-13; BALLYFITZ 10-10-09; ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 8-10-08;
CANE BRAKE (IRE) 11-10-08; MALJIMAR (IRE) 10-10-08;
I’ve gone through these using stats;
‘by the 30th April 1 year before’
16/16 top 3 in C1 chase 20f or more
16/16 a 47% chase win place strike rate
15/16 had ran in at least 7 chases
Lord Gyllene odd one out
15/16 won a C1/C2 chase worth 17k or more
Lord Gyllene is the odd won out.
14/16 won at 24f or more
Lord Gyllene, Red Marauder are odd ones out.
14/16 had recorded a left handed RPR 141
Lord Gyllene, Numbersixvalverde odd ones out.
14/16 won 3 chases
Lord Gyllene, Hedgehunter odd ones out
‘odd ones out had a chase win strike rate place of 63% or more’
(I’ve got a slight problem with left hand RPR’s, not sure if I’ve got data right so might need correcting)
A; Comply Or Die, My Will, Air Force One, Gone To Lunch, Character Building, Mr Pointment, Iris De Blame, Parsons Legacy
C; War Of Attrition, Snowy Morning
Still looking at other horses entered who might qualify on 1 year stats without ‘top5 Hennessy’ etc.
What I find interesting that if those stats hold up we’ve got 10 horses and it’s quite likely that 6 of those 10, COD, AFO, CB, MP, IDB, PL, will have run less than 4 preps, 1st September to GN day, which suggests to me 4 preps or more stat might go this year. It’s worth remembering though that 3/28 had less than 4 preps.
Personally I think Madison, Notre Pere or Mon Mome, who would all qualify on those 1 year before stats, could give the weight stat 11-5 or less, a real test this year.
#643
February 20th, 2010 15:03
Crisp as you know we differ on strike rate but I make it left-handed RPR is 141 minimum
All had 150+ left-handed RPR except
GN OR; L/H RPR; diff; horse
142; 141; -1; Bobbyjo
140; 145; +5; Red Marauder
136; 144; +8; Bindaree
139; 148; +9; Monty’s Pass
138; 146; +8; Numbersixvalverde
So really looking for a left-handed RPR of 150 plus unless the horse is rated 145 or less
Bobbyjo was rated 128 but 14 ooh (in that year’s race only 3 carried 11’0 or more and finished Earth Summit 8th, General Wolfe 12th and Suny Bay 13th)
Every winner apart from Bobbyjo (but we will have no horses racing from out of the handicap this year) had a L/H RPR of >= 5 lb higher than GN OR
#644
February 20th, 2010 15:32
Can’t wait for final table & rascal’s conclusion to his epic. To use a quotation from Gone with the wind & alter it slightly
“Frankly my darling, I do give a dam!”
#645
February 20th, 2010 15:45
Well Silver will be BIG favourite after that run for Scots GN.
Nice prep run for Le Beau Bai in 3rd but yet again Ballyfitz pressing at end and VERY impressive in 4th.
#646
February 20th, 2010 15:55
If only we had a consistant jumping galloper like Monet and Our Vic ey!
even MM hit one there, Coe slowly improving jumps. Ballyfitz hit a couple, the last one when gaining on Our Vic in good style. He could be so good but chances of putting in a bad jump that ruins his chances about 100%
#647
February 20th, 2010 16:08
I would have thought the two horses to take out of todays Haydock race for the nat would be the twiston davies horses – Ballyfitz made his usual jumping errors but was staying on again at the death… Hello Bud jumped impeccably again but I think hes more effective when running on quicker ground and Our Vic took him on for the lead which im sure he didnt like…
#648
February 20th, 2010 16:17
Thanks for putting things into perspective, Showlad, Ballyfitz was being considered in my six. Must add to my betting list.
Meanwhile over in Ireland the D T Hughes pair ran a great race, although their weights are a concern. Also Casey Jones still out, I don’t think that’ll be right in time. Might go for Cheltenham. Oh yer big run too from One Cool Cookie who made the pace.
#649
February 20th, 2010 16:38
Notre Pere ran a shocker I thought and he had the weights very much in his favour
VV ran really well but weight might be a concern in the GN
Interested to see how Madison Du Berlais runs next week because if he is re-routed from the National then weights might rise – NP needs to find some form and Our Vic surely won’t be risked over a trip too far?
#650
February 20th, 2010 16:40
Can’t see Albertas Run or Taranis running off top weight so maybe MM top weight?
#651
February 20th, 2010 16:50
When will people learn Notre Pere needs 4 miles minimum!! he’s just too slow!
Had a nice winner on VV today – getting weight from horses he will be giving it to in the GN, in good form already this season (most of the others weren’t) – looked all over the winner to me.
#652
February 20th, 2010 16:51
I agree with the sentiments about Hello Bud – I was surprised he stuck at it as long as he did given the ground.
I know he faded in the final couple of furlongs, but coming up to 2 jumps out, he was right in the mix for a place.
And as said, his jumping was literally foot perfect.
#653
February 20th, 2010 17:01
Pablo, unless they run Madison to keep wt. of COD.
crisp 73, re- 4 preps or more stat might go this year.
On the flip-side that would leave 4 from your list on 4 or more prep runs (if -my will- runs in GC)
A; My Will, Gone To Lunch,
C; War Of Attrition, Snowy Morning
#654
February 20th, 2010 17:05
What I will take from today:
Yes really nice and very encouraging run from Hello Bud in his 5th (proper season lol) run which has included his 3rd in Class 1 at Chelts the rest included a nice stroll around Aintree in Becher (I was there)and some cerditable showing in ground he really doesn’t like – for me he is defo Top 4 consideration.
Ballyfitz AGAIN looks like he needed another mile and he WILL get that at Aintree BIG BIG dark horse.
Le Beau again another really nice run and a place to show he is no fluke.
One Cool Cookie a nice return. BA and VV well done but too much weight at GN.
Dream Alliance I actually liked they are keeping some in the tank – her will need it.
#655
February 20th, 2010 17:09
Miinnehoma – different owner Madison & COD though
#656
February 20th, 2010 17:11
Systemsman – you asked what Numbersixvalverde’s score was in 2006 – he got a perfect score of 7.58. The previous 20 winners scores have been posted in full previously.
It seems to me that there is usually about 5 horses or so with more than 6.35 or so.
I dont inted to do the whole thing for 2006 and 2005, but I am going to do it for 2004 and see how many horses had a better score than Amberleigh House, who has the lowest score of the past 14 winners (RM aside)
#657
February 20th, 2010 17:16
Pablo say no more – silly me.
#658
February 20th, 2010 17:33
Daniel Edwards so thats 3 years in a row that the GN winner was in a very short list of those with 6.35 or more – very impressive to say the least (its amazing).
“The previous 20 winners scores have been posted in full previously.”
Anyone know the post number I can find these?
#659
February 20th, 2010 17:35
Certainly MM top weight much more likely after today.
VV, BA surely can’t defy weight if up 3lb likewise NM, Dream who ran almost like GTL in WN there! suprised?! or did we expect that after his comeback win, well sure we’re far from happy with that. In contrast Silver was brilliant, with no sign of his WN effort.
I suppose this makes things easier in that without sentiment, we can rule out past winners boo hoo
Ballyfitz who I’ve had on radar a while now, remember noone wanted to talk about this one after WN!!! think the sheep herding effect could strike again every yr on here, unless we are open to discuss everyones thoughts fairly, err especially mine! haa haa!
but NTD really fancied this horse, so been eagle eyed for this little guy.
All I can say is his runs are like repeats, just can’t sort out his jumping completely, even if he does stay on his feet, can’t win clouting one like he does surely, certainly at that stage of the race and at aintree!
This must be reason why sensibly Miko wasn’t entered. Hopefully he’s more like Snowy, can get away with it, but can you win!!?!
Still on my list at that price and with a good weight, but another to worry about whole race if I back him, I’ll be telling myself at the final fence ‘I told myself so!’ if I’m not clutching my chest lying on the floor
#660
February 20th, 2010 17:36
Daniels GN scores for past years:
Sorry everyone, I didnt look hard enougth, it can be found at:
” Daniel Edwards says:
February 18, 2010 at 10:35 AM”
#661
February 20th, 2010 17:43
Following on from earlier post, 1 year before…
14/16 had ran in 3 handicap chases 1 year before. Yep, Lord Gyllene again! and Bindaree odd ones out. Both had chase win place strike rates 63% or more. Negative for Air Force One, Snowy Morning.
That would leave Comply Or Die, My Will, Gone To Lunch, Character Building, Mr Pointment, Iris De Balme, Parsons Legacy.
(War Of Attrition will not run in 4 handicap chases, Miinnehoma ran in 4 the previous lowest, 6 or more usual, by GN day)
#662
February 20th, 2010 17:50
To go against the sheep as you refer to it KJ, I was not over impressed at all with Ballyfitz. He has developed a reliable reputation for not being able to see any chase through without making a real hash of a fence or two and he won’t get away with that at Aintree. I am also firmly in the camp that sees him as a dubious stayer, so I don’t agree that he needs another mile. He wasn’t on my short list and still isn’t. My own list who I have all backed at reasonably good odds are:
Black Apalachi (accepted weight stat is against him)
Niche Market (who I think now has 3 or 4lbs too much)
State of Play
Character Building
Snowy Morning
I backed Gone to Lunch ages ago at 50s but can’t say I have much hope for him at the present time. But I know you have Systems!
VV and BA ran excellent trials today.
#663
February 20th, 2010 18:21
Yeah, I suppose Phil has done a good job when you think about it. He’s given all the best jumpers, stayers, course lovers a ball and chain, unfair to most of the irish though. Made it impossible this year and I feel I should give up! or atleast just crystal ball it!
I think Ballyfitz is a stayer, possibly to 4m4. just takes the wind out of his sails everytime in every race.
Anyone know the score with our latest top6? think we can add to it til tmw?
off to contemplate, chew the cud and chain myself to the kitchen sink.
#664
February 20th, 2010 18:33
My grand national portfolio now looks like:
State Of Play 25/1
Niche Market 16/1
Dream Alliance 33/1
Arbor Supreme 40/1
Iris De Balme 50/1
All a pony (£25) to win.
Alone with 4 £2.50 each way trebles on:
Punjabi 12/1 or Zaynar 5/1 in the champion hurdle.
Kauto Star or Denman both at 2/1 in gold cup.
Niche Market 20/1 in grand national.
#665
February 20th, 2010 18:58
crisp 73 – 14/16 had ran in 3 handicap chases 1 year before.
I think Snowy is OK on that stat – ’07 Hennessy and 2 GN. He has run in 4 at present- score 4-0. But this is a worry in regards both Snowy and GTL(5-0), when 15/19 had won at least 2 Hcaps.
#666
February 20th, 2010 19:07
True and that could be a negative
But if GTL had won a handicap he’d be rated in the high 150s now probably
And if Snowy had won a Hennessy (2 attempts) or GN (2 attempts) he be rated in the 160s or at least high 150s now
At least they are on winnable marks I suppose
#667
February 20th, 2010 21:17
So I was the only one to tip up Silver by Nature then
Told everyone I know to get on him this week and am owed quite a few pints at Chelts now the drift in price helped me too as i took 11/2 and got paid at 7s 
Progressive is that horses middle name backed him for the Welsh and he just keeps improving, if there is any cut in the ground in 2011 and he gets a winable weight he’s nailed on. Our Vic is surely going to win another handicap at 3miles ran a cracker today trip was just a bit too far and ground a bit too soft but this horse is having an indian summer, follow him and you won’t go wrong. Of course there isn’t a cat in hells chance of him staying 4m4f or being declared for the national Pipe is just mucking about as usual, he’ll win again soon though.
Elsewhere I backed Black Ap. EW today and after a lap thought I’d done my money as he was completely off the bridle and gone, came back out of nowhere with a huge run at the death and would have won had VV not been holding plenty in the tank. Both ran taking trials but have to be far far too high in the weights for the GN VV maybe the best horse in the race but again Smith shows he’s killing the Beecher as if you win it you will never have a shot at the big one.
Last year on weights day said Cloudy lane would be top weight on the day many disagreed, this year said MM for top weight on the day… sure many know better but personally all my bets factor around MM as top weight.
Notre Pere today absolutely shocking can not be considered, he is in serious regression, everything was in his favour today had his perfect ground and a crawl of a pace to the race too and flopped.
Ballyfitz no way this hurdler will clear the national course tried to take a couple of fences home with him today and they were those tiny little wheelie fences, god knows what he’ll make of Beechers or the chair!
Hello Bud ran well for a long way in ground he would have hated, not brilliant but not too bad either.
Dream Alliance very poor today in ground he should have liked, got to hope he hasn’t left his race in Chepstow!!!
Someone asked about Miko and the national, he’ll never run in it as his trainers the Alner’s hate the GN and never let any of their horses run in it.
#668
February 20th, 2010 21:35
Pablo,
I see Character Building has 23 points on your system, can you tell me what score would you give him with say 2 more prep runs (one being a chase win at cheltenham).
#669
February 20th, 2010 22:01
TREND BREAKERS – PART 8
KEY TREND – BEST OFFICIAL RATING IN VICTORY
Discounting NUMBERSIXVALVERDE and BOBBYJO who came into the Aintree Grand National as the previous season’s Irish National winners and LITTLE POLVEIR (whose Grand National OR was 70) it is evident that the remaining National winners have all previously managed to win chase features with an Official Rating of 130 or more. With the quality of entrants for the Aintree Grand National significantly improving The Rascal is happy to take this as the bottom line and, on this 17/20 trend, discounts SIEGEMASTER (who is without a handicap win), ARBOR SUPREME, PARSONS PISTOL, BALLYTRIM, BERONI and BOYCHUK in 2010.
There are no concerns that BALLYTRIM or BOYCHUK will break the trend as they won’t make the cut. Dessie Hughes, trainer of SIEGEMASTER, has already said he is unlikely to run whilst Willie Mullins was disappointed with the weight allocated to BERONI (an official rating of 147). Understandable since BERONI’s best OR win was from an Irish rating of 119 – if he goes to post BERONI has a huge, nigh-on impossible task ahead of him.
PARSONS PISTOL has been struggling off a mark of 135 in his last couple of races and is another with too much to do having been handicapped at 141 for the Grand National. ARBOR SUPREME has not won since November 2008 and is amongst many Irish entries that look punished in the handicap. Even with A P McCoy on board, off a one pound lower mark than given for the National, ARBOR SUPREME failed to get into contention in his February outing and eventually unseated two from home.
None of these seem to have the class required of a modern Grand National winner and are dismissed.
Following on from this trend is the improvement on previous best OR wins managed by the last twenty winners. Only two have improved their best OR win by more than 10 pounds and both of those were winners of the previous season’s Irish Grand National. The most improved performance came from LORD GYLLENE who won off an Official Rating of 149, compared to the 139 he had capped at previously, a ten pound improvement.
The ten pound limit currently makes this year’s Grand National too big an ask of ELLERSLIE GEORGE, EQUUS MAXIMUS and BACKSTAGE.
ELLERSLIE GEORGE was a long way behind on soft ground at Ascot last time but his win at Wincanton in November over 3m 1f was encouraging – ahead of THE PACKAGE, NICHE MARKET, ERIC’S CHARM and BEAT THE BOYS. 10-10 looks to be an enticing weight if one of the top weights stay in and ELLERSLIE GEORGE can improve on the Ascot form with faster ground. Despite the amateur jockey giving ELLERSLIE GEORGE a seven pound allowance in those last two races The Rascal has to keep him in as a possible trend breaker for the moment.
EQUUS MAXIMUS has a comparatively harder task, his season win came back in May last year and his form since does not inspire The Rascal to think he will be on fire come April 10th. Pulling up behind WHINSTONE BOY, SIEGEMASTER, BERONI, PREISTS LEAP and ARBOR SUPREME last time out has pulled the rug from under EQUUS MAXIMUS’ Grand National aspirations as far as The Rascal is concerned.
BACKSTAGE is well supported in the market at present following a win at Ffos Las last August but he didn’t take to Aintree last year and was well beaten by TRUST FUND in the Amateur Hunt Chase there. TRUST FUND will be hoping to sneak into the final forty off a mark eight pounds below the one awarded BACKSTAGE. For this reason BACKSTAGE seems badly handicapped, having a best official rating victory of 137 just a pound higher than TRUST FUND’s. Of those carrying 11 stone or more BACKSTAGE is therefore among the least of The Rascal’s fancies.
So if the best official ratings win trend is to succumb to anyone in 2010 The Rascal believes ELLERSLIE GEORGE is the most trustworthy to do it.
#670
February 20th, 2010 22:07
TREND BREAKERS – PART NINE
KEY TREND – KEY RACE FORM
The last 20 Grand National winners have all placed in a Class 1 chase, or its equivalent, prior to National success. This rules out the chances of KILBEGGAN BLADE and TRUST FUND for Aintree 2010.
KILBEGGAN BLADE is miles down the handicap and won’t make the cut whilst TRUST FUND’s involvement is precarious at best and has been absent from the race course since last May. The lack of a healthy prep season rules him out of The Rascal’s reckoning.
Incredibly 15 of the last twenty Grand National winners had placed 5th or better in the Hennessy Gold Cup or had registered a top three finish in either the Scottish, Welsh, Irish or Aintree Grand National (a 6 out of 6 trend in recent years). This gives a green light to MADISON DU BERLAIS, DREAM ALLIANCE, NOTRE PERE, AIR FORCE ONE, MY WILL, SNOWY MORNING, ROYAL COUNTY STAR, MON MOME, GONE TO LUNCH and HELLO BUD of the hopefuls remaining.
The not-so-well’s of our last twenty winners are MONTY’S PASS, LORD GYLLENE, ROYAL ATHLETE, SEAGRAM and LITTLE POLVEIR.
MONTY’S PASS had raced mostly in Ireland prior to his success but notably achieved a second in the Topham Chase over the National fences a year previously and was a winner of the Kerry National over 24 furlongs. VIC VENTURI gets a nod here, then, as winner of the 2009 Becher’s Chase over National fences.
Both ROYAL ATHLETE, SEAGRAM and LORD GYLLENE had chase victories over a distance of 28 furlongs or more giving credence to their prospects and so JOE LIVELY and ERIC’S CHARM stay in the mix.
Finally, LITTLE POLVEIR’s best credential was a fourth place finish over 4 miles prior to victory (32f), keeping CAN’T BUY TIME in contention.
If these habits stick then a further nine entries are left in the shade – ALBERTAS RUN, BEAT THE BOYS, OUR VIC, TARANIS, DON’T PUSH IT, CASEY JONES, ONE COOL COOKIE, CLOUDY LANE and CANE BRAKE.
ALBERTAS RUN carries top weight of 11-10 and will go to the Cheltenham Gold Cup which will surely take too much out of him to be competitive in the Grand National. OLD VIC, a tremendous battler, will be out of his depth at the distance and younger sorts will peg him back. DON’T PUSH IT requires a ten pound improvement on his best official ratings victory and is not fancied to achieve it carrying 11-05. TARANIS will also go to the Gold Cup and carries too much weight. ONE COOL COOKIE has been rated nine pounds higher than he is in Ireland and hasn’t won since last March. With just one win over three miles or further The Rascal has gone cold on ONE COOL COOKIE. CLOUDY LANE has had his best chance in the Grand National two years ago and didn’t take it, The Rascal can’t see him lumbering 11-03 to victory in April.
CASEY JONES would also need to undo what weight trends tell us in carrying 11-03 to Grand National glory. Ahead of JOE LIVELY and NOTRE PERE at Newbury in November CASEY JONES was still behind MY WILL and WAR OF ATTRITION on that occasion. MY WILL is a pound better off with CASEY JONES in the Grand National.
CASEY JONES was rated four pounds better than KILCREA CASTLE when beating him by one and a half lengths at Punchestown in November. He is now nine pounds higher than KILCREA CASTLE. The indication is that The Rascal thinks one or more of CASEY JONES’ rivals in the National will find themselves better off in the handicap and have the beating of him.
CANE BRAKE hasn’t won since 2006 and hasn’t looked likely to this season.
BEAT THE BOYS can be forgiven for pulling up at Cheltenham last time out after just an eleven day break from winning at Newcastle, ahead of COE, ACCORDING TO JOHN and NOZIC. He will need an eight pound improvement in the Grand National but has a healthy win and strike weight and with five chase wins at 3 miles or further cannot be discounted at this stage.
So joining LE BEAU BAI, KILCREA CASTLE, CHELSEA HARBOUR, STATE OF PLAY, IRIS DE BALME and ELLERSLIE GEORGE on the trend breakers list is BEAT THE BOYS.
#671
February 20th, 2010 22:14
Character Building deserves a crack at the big race after being so unlucky not to get there on two seperate occasions. He may have been kept off the course until recently to try and stave off the injuries of the past. To save his legs for a Spring campaign. It looks like a run in the Kim Muir at the festival and then on to Aintree now after his hurdling pipeopener over an inadequate trip. Two prep runs isn’t usually great, but Miinnehoma did it and others have just been touched off with so few seasonal runs. However he gets there, his place in the lineup would be a sight for sore eyes for his supporters. He may not win, but he would go there with an excellent chance.
#672
February 20th, 2010 22:17
Sorry to do this, but Beat The Boys has placed in two C1 chases – one this seaosn, and one in Nov 08, which he won.
And by the way, the C1 place stat applies to chases of at least 3 miles.
In fact, 16 of the last 20 winners had placed in a C1 chase OF AT LEAST 27f.
Exceptions were;
Comply or Die – 25f (RSA Chase)
Montys Pass – 24f – numerous times, but never further than 3 miles.
Red Marauder (only C1 place was over hurdles)
Seagram – 25f – Two Ritz Club Chases at the festival.
#673
February 20th, 2010 22:36
Help required:
Any views on Cane Brake please, both for and against.
He is on Daniel’s list and our combined scores list so has to be considered but is he short list material? I’am seriously considering him as my next bet after the wager on Snowy Morning I had earlier this week.
Daniel gave Cane Brake a score of 6.45 (6th best so far)- over that 6.35 points threshold.
14points Cane Brake – in our points table.
#674
February 20th, 2010 22:38
TREND BREAKERS – PART 10
KEY TREND – RECENT FORM AND WEIGHT
The last twenty winners have all placed at least third in at least one of their last three runs going into the Grand National. Plenty of opportunity for entries to ruin or meet this trend but it currently puts paid to the chances of NOTRE PERE and GONE TO LUNCH.
NOTRE PERE is another of the three on top weight and is entered in the Gold Cup. He tends not to show up if the ground is not to his liking and the win in his season form that kept him in the reckoning earlier came last April.
GONE TO LUNCH has not won since December 2008 and has not recaptured the magic that saw him finish second to HELLO BUD in last year’s Scottish National. He may skirt Aintree and try his luck at Ayr again instead. The Rascal believes others will stay the four and a half miles better than GONE TO LUNCH will.
The trend everyone knows – no recent winner has carried more than 11 stone 1 pound to victory. This would scupper support for MADISON DU BERLAIS, DREAM ALLIANCE, JOE LIVELY, MY WILL, MON MOME and VIC VENTURI.
MADISON DU BERLAIS was pulled out last year after going for the Gold Cup and The Rascal believes the same may happen again. Regardless, defying top weight would be a miracle effort and The Rascal cannot see it happening this year.
DREAM ALLIANCE’s chance seems to have been taken away with the handicapper saddling him with 11-03. He was a long way off under his new rating in the Blue Square Gold Cup and is unlikely to find a nine pound improvement on his best OR win at Aintree.
VIC VENTURI, however, followed up his Becher’s Chase win with victory in the Bobbyjo Chase off his Grand National rating of 154 and looks set to run a big race at Aintree. He certainly can’t be dismissed just yet.
MON MOME also has too much to find on his higher mark and could struggle to do himself justice in defending his title. The Rascal expects to see his 2008 race (10th) and not the hugely impressive win of last year.
MY WILL is back on a winning mark but that win was back in 2006 and season form doesn’t suggest that the two pound leniency on last year’s rating will help him improve on third place last year. The best appears to be behind him.
JOE LIVELY has only won twice since 2007 and both of those wins were at Cheltenham – his third place finish this season was in a field of seven and The Rascal doubts he can win the National of 11-06.
So VIC VENTURI joins the final list, disclosed for the first time, imminently…
#675
February 20th, 2010 22:52
So, The Rascal’s Grand National winner lurks somewhere amongst the following:
TREND SETTERS
CAN’T BUY TIME
ERIC’S CHARM
AIR FORCE ONE
SNOWY MORNING
ROYAL COUNTY STAR
HELLO BUD
TREND BREAKERS
BEAT THE BOYS (no win at 28f or further or key race place)
CHELSEA HARBOUR (substandard strike rate)
ELLERSLIE GEORGE (needs more than 10lb improvement on best OR win and no win at 28f or key race place)
STATE OF PLAY (no season form)
LE BEAU BAI (7 years old, no chase winnings over £17k, insufficient chase runs)
VIC VENTURI (carrying more than 11-01)
IRIS DE BALME (no season form)
KILCREA CASTLE (no win over 3m, no chase winnings over £17k,no 28f win or key race place)
#676
February 20th, 2010 22:55
The Rascal will provide a more detailed analysis of both trend setters and trend breakers as soon as possible, selecting three from each list and thus giving a top six for the 2010 Grand National.
See, it’s not that hard really, is it?
#677
February 20th, 2010 23:09
Contrary to most people, I was not impressed with Ballyfitz. Poor jumper and WON’T stay. Also not impressed with Hello Bud. Not good enough to win National, even on better ground. Not a great National trial. Le Beau Bai did OK but 7yo and hasn’t got the crusing speed. L’Aventure stayed on well as usual after getting detached. Not racing in the big one though.
Does anyone know why Casey Jones was pulled out? Was it the ground or another reason?
#678
February 20th, 2010 23:13
Systemsman says:
February 20, 2010 at 10:36 PM
Help required:
Any views on Cane Brake please, both for and against.
Something I posted a few days ago – and I have backed him at I what I thought were decent Betfair odds – fully admit he’s not stat-proof…
Cane Brake’s best form 3 years ago admittedly – he does need a good run now to prove he’s back near his best (Taaffe didn’t give much away on weights day except – the GN’s the aim)
On that old form he is the best handicapped horse in the field for me – almost guaranteed to be under 11′0
2 big-field class 1 handicap victories (one off 142 which is the same as his GN OR – quite a feat off top weight in Ireland) and 5th in Gold Cup afterwards
However it was 3 years ago!
He has shown some promise this season (first 2 runs – giving heaps of weight away to Beroni & Dorset Square) but hasn’t fared too well last two efforts
All recent chases have been in Grade 1s and have had the effect of lowering his OR
Taaffe said 3 years ago that he really wanted to run Cane Brake in the GN but they preferred the Gold Cup and Irish National (faced impossible task off 159 – no horse has won that race off more than 148 as far back as 1998 at least)
Handicap record for Taaffe = 2,1,1,P (P was off 159) – previously with Wachman where he lost his way a bit having been a Grade 2-winning Novice
Has been P quite a bit and on good ground – although did run 5th in GC on GS and there is always some juice in the ground for GN these days
The GN has been the aim for 2 years but wasn’t able to run last year
If he shows up well in a chase (RPR in the high 140s/early 150s) then my bets at 100+ will look good otherwise no harm done – at those odds I thought it worth a punt
#679
February 20th, 2010 23:17
… there’s also the outside possibility (more out of hope than expectation) that Barry Geraghty might ride Cane Brake – he rode him to win the Troytown and also rode Slim Pickings twice for Tom Taaffe in 07 and 08 – but I guess that the horse would need to show something first and there’s always a certain PF Nicholls who might need a spare jockey or two
#680
February 21st, 2010 00:21
I’m not giving Ballyfitz the vote, given him chances this year to improve further, which he has, but ‘if he can’t jump.. he can’t stay’ is my take and yes he can’t jump, seems to stay on regardless of the hoola dress!
Others have come round to him and I feel if you can fancy Snowy, you can kinda fancy little fitz.
This year is outrageously hard, we must be looking at less than minimum wage if we win! All have faults, problems or too much weight.
I’ve stopped panning for gold after todays dreams were dashed (wish it was a case of panning for silver!) anyway I’m currently being swept away, down the swany!
#681
February 21st, 2010 01:21
Hi systemsman, happy to help on Cane Brake. On dosage probable figures similar to Hedgehunter, Amberleigh House & Earth Summit from the past 15 years. He also demonstrated that he can handle big fields winning against 28 at Leopardstown, 16 at Navan & 17 at Galway. His OR is set at his highest winning mark 142 in which was gained at Leopardstown over 24f in heavy going carrying 11-03.
All his six chase wins have soft or heavy going as their connection.
However his last win was 27/12/07 so might need a confidence booster. Also not won further than 3 miles. The only times he’s tried was at Cheltenham Festival 11 lengths 5th to Kauto Star on good to soft (kauto’s first gold cup win ). Also at Fairyhouse (Butler’s Cabin Irish national wi n) where he was pulled up on good going.
#682
February 21st, 2010 01:28
My view that if the going is a bog on April 10th. Then you’re be pretty smug watching the race.
#683
February 21st, 2010 01:36
Oh yer, forgot you lot are keen on RPR figures his highest (upto 29/12/09) is 161 gained at Leopardstown on 27/12/06 his last winning run & at Cheltenham to Kauto Star 16/03/07
#684
February 21st, 2010 02:25
great work rascal great read and much appreciated…/ think you have the winner in there also, gl
#685
February 21st, 2010 10:00
Daniel, Red Marauder won C1 -grade2- chase at Ascot, 20f, ’98. C1 chase stat could be applied in lots of ways. But if you look at 14/16 won a C1 chase, 12/12, though four of those, Red Marauder, Bindaree, Amberleigh House, Comply Or Die all did so at 20f or 21f. Personally I think it points to a C1 chase win/place at any distance from 20f as important. But, if we put C1 chase at 1 year before at 24f or more, 14/16 the odd ones out are Lord Gyllene and Red Marauder, 63% or more chase win place strike rate. Yes, looked at Beat The Boys and he does meet those 1 year before stats. Any more?
Miinnehoma, you’re right about Snowy Morning, 3 handicap chases, 1 year before.
Up to date list of those meet those 1 year before stats.
A; Comply Or Die, My Will, Gone To Lunch, Character Building, Mr Pointment, Iris De Balme, Parsons Legacy.
C;War Of Attrition, Beat The Boys, Snowy Morning
Put Beat The Boys in ‘wild card’ group. Those fit 1 year before stats.
#686
February 21st, 2010 10:50
Alternative to the one year before stats is the ‘where they were 1 year before’. All since Earth Summit had either ran in Topham/GN and/or Irish the March/April before or been out through injury.
I think that this favours horses with the National as a clear (1 year plus) target rather than johnny-come-latelys.
So it would possibly be a negative for horses that weren’t running in Topham/a National last Spring or weren’t entered for GN last year unless out injured. Others like Tricky Trickster have been publicly targetted at the race for the better part of 12 months too.
(Lord Gyllene; Novice but brought over from New Zealand to win National)
Earth Summit; Injured (previous Scottish National winner)
Bobbyjo; Ran in Irish
Papillon; Ran in Irish
Red Marauder; Ran in GN & Irish
Bindaree; Novice & ran in Topham
Monty’s Pass; Ran in Topham
Amberleigh House; Ran in GN
Hedgehunter; Ran in GN
Numbersixvalverde; Novice & ran in Irish
Silver Birch; Ran in GN
Comply Or Die; Injured (pretty sure had entry in 2007)
Mon Mome; Ran in GN
#687
February 21st, 2010 11:14
Thanks for the correction Crisp -my memory is obviously playing tricks on me as I dont have my data in front of me at the mo.
I have applied my points system to the 2004 running. The top scores were;
Bear on Board – PERFECT SCORE
Takagi – 7.08
Ardent Scout – 6.98
Gunner Welburn – 6.95
Davids Lad – 6.73
Amberleigh House – 6.35
So Amberleigh House was 6th on the points list that year, and of those above him, David’s Lad had too much weight.
So it seems as though all of the last 6 winners were in the top6 on the scores system.
I will do Monty’s Pass year (2003) when I get the chance, as he had a low score (compared to other winners) too.
#688
February 21st, 2010 12:02
What are we do to do with Ollie Magern . Hes popped up on Crisps 30/30 stat . now hes on Daniels excellent system … Everybody looks at him and then probably pulls a face and moves onto the next horse . But im getting a bit worried that he keeps popping up on a lot of stats . Hes been very highly tried up until now, but if comes up genuinely good ground on the day he might be not a bad longshot… Can he be safely dissmissed ?
#689
February 21st, 2010 12:56
“Daniel Edwards: So Amberleigh House was 6th on the points list that year, and of those above him, David’s Lad had too much weight.
So it seems as though all of the last 6 winners were in the top6 on the scores system.”
Very happy with that Daniel – only six or so to bet and normely you could exclude one or two if carrying a huge weight(I’am happy to bet big on about 6 with 2 stakes savers+ most years.)Even 1 in two years would be just great.I really think you have something special there Daniel – the figues prove it.
With regard to your origional scores. What factors would increase or decrease a score between now and GN race day (you mentioned Cheltenham and gave a figure as one example)- are they likley to change a lot?
#690
February 21st, 2010 13:01
Major price movements in top bookies price quoted on oddschecker
Horse; Pre weights; Post weights; After Bobbyjo; Movement
Black Apalachi; 21; 21; 17; In
Backstage; 26; 21; 21; In
Mon Mome; 26; 26; 34; Out
Vic Venturi; 26; 26; 17; In
State Of Play; 34; 26; 26; In
Dream Alliance; 34; 34; 51; Out
War Of Attrition; 34; ; 21; In
Ballyholland; 41; 34; 34; In
Snowy Morning; 41; 34; 34; In
Notre Pere; 41; 41; 51; Out
The Package; 41; 41; 34; In
Casey Jones; 51; 41; 41; In
Trabolgan; 51; 67; 67; Out
Offshore Account; 51; 101; 101; Out
Our Vic; 51; 67; 67; Out
Air Force One; 67; 51; 51; In
Kilcrea Castle; 67; 51; 51; In
#691
February 21st, 2010 13:19
Systemsman – I’ll post top 7 from my system during race week when final 40 declared
Winner in the top 5 horses every year (that’s usually top 3 scores or equal)
Exception was Seagram who was joint 4th rated that year among a total of 7 horses which were top 4 rated or equal
System not designed to be used as an antepost tool as scores can change until after Midlands National and I prefer to wait for final 40
Be interested to compare with Daniel’s system at that stage to cross-check final bets
Don’t want the winner escaping!
#692
February 21st, 2010 13:23
“SILVER BIRCH says:
February 21, 2010 at 12:02 PM
What are we do to do with Ollie Magern . Hes popped up on Crisps 30/30 stat . now hes on Daniels excellent system … ”
6.35; 29; Ollie Magern
In both Daniel’s and Pablo’s lists.
Its look to me like that both Cane Brake and Ollie Magern are the next bets for me (no final decison yet) after that bet on SM they are both class acts that have run at a higher level (OR – RPR very good) in the past that have had gaps or brakes in their running may have the class/experiance/trends to fire again on the one day that matters (follows a recent trend in the GN)- both very dangerous on their low alocated weights I think.
Is OM aimed at the GN?
So my list may look like this by the end of the week (but still considering one or two)
Dream Alliance – proably too much weight?
Niche Market – too much weight (ant-post bet)
Gone To Lunch – looks good if he runs
Hello Bud – will love the distance and jumps well but will he run out of steam at the end?
Snowy Morning – will his jumping hold out?
Cane Brake – can he recapture past form?
Ollie Magern – can he recapture past form?
Would also consider Air Force One but he may not run in the GN.
#693
February 21st, 2010 13:28
Pablo says: “I’ll post top 7 from my system during race week when final 40 declared
Winner in the top 5 horses every year (that’s usually top 3 scores or equal)”
Thanks Pablo – yes I too will cross check your list with Daniel’s it will be very interesting. I think this year a few late best may be in order.
#694
February 21st, 2010 13:34
I have done little mathematical work on the weights and their RPR. I have taken the difference in weights and rpr and added them together to determine who is better off in the weight. Not sure if anyone has already done this.
example Knowhere wt 10-4 RPR 174 comparing to top weight Albertas Run wt 11-10 RPR.
difference in weight 20lbs
difference in RPR 6lbs
Adding the two together is 26lbs Knowhere is 26lbs better of in the weights.
now if i look at Big Fella Thnks on of my fancies BFT wt 10-12 RPR157
difference in wt 12ibs
diferencein RPR -11bs
adding the two together is 1lb better off than top weight.
Below is a summry of the top 10 best of in the weights and how many lbs better off.
Whinstone Boy (IRE) 16
Ballyfitz 17
Maljimar (IRE) 17
New Alco (FR) 17
Coe (IRE)18
Gone To Lunch (IRE)19
Kilcrea Castle (IRE)19
Razor Royale (IRE)20
Ollie Magern 24
Knowhere (IRE)26
#695
February 21st, 2010 14:11
Systemsman – The scores could change depending on;
Best run of the season,
number of chase runs,
number of chase wins,
C1 chase place
Cheltenham run?
number of falls….
I guess the answer is, all of the stats could change, save for age, between now and race day.
I too wouild be happy if the winner was in the top 5 or so every year. I usually have at least 5 running for me in the National.
Problem is however, you dont have to go that far back to find horses with scores below 6, so im not getting excited just yet!
Also of course, the year hedgehunter won, he would have actually lost a point for his weight, because at that stage no horse had won with more than 11 stone for 20 plus years, so as with all stats, it is working backwards somewhat.
I am tempted to post two lists – one with the max weight being 11_01 and another allowing for horses on 11_02 and 11_03 to get the same weight score as those on 11_01 and 11_00 and see how the two lists compare.
re: Ollia Magern- he’s a bit of a head scratcher isnt he!! My gut says he isn’t good enough any more. Take his wetherby runs (where he clearly enjoys himself) and im not sure he has done anything in the past couple of years to show he retains enough ability. You really need everything in your favour to win as a 12 yo – Amberleigh House had come 2nd in the Becher that same season remember.
#696
February 21st, 2010 14:20
Ive just checked Ollie Magern – his only wins in the past SIX YEARS have been his two Charlie Hall wins.
Entered in the RP Chase at Kempton next (?) weekend, so I guess you could watch then and judge on that run. He’s obviously weighted nicely, as he’s slightly less than his Hennessy 2nd, but that was 6 years ago!!!!
#697
February 21st, 2010 14:32
“so as with all stats, it is working backwards somewhat.”
Agree – our lists are merely predictors based on past winners’ performances allowing for a bit of leeway
The interesting thing I find is to compare say the top 6 stats picks with the top of the market come raceday and the value can be seen in the price differentials – some of the stats picks can be 25/1, 33/1 or more (or 100/1 if lucky enough to be on Mon Mome last year)
By that stage it’s non-runner no bet of course too
#698
February 21st, 2010 14:33
…should continue but most of the favourites are under 10/1
#699
February 21st, 2010 15:00
“Daniel Edwards says:
February 21, 2010 at 2:20 PM
Ive just checked Ollie Magern – his only wins in the past SIX YEARS have been his two Charlie Hall wins.
Entered in the RP Chase at Kempton next (?) weekend, so I guess you could watch then and judge on that run.”
Will do just that Daniel and judge him after that. But I think that bet on Cane Brake may be worth having even at this stage as 66/1 in the hight Street is available.
#700
February 21st, 2010 15:04
Hey everyone.
I had a massive loss of faith in my ante-post bets and layed them.
Got rid of My Will, seems to be bang out of form plus Ruby wont be on board, also carrying 11-02. Cant see him winning now.
Got rid of some of Hello Bud, has a decent weight and jumps well but just isn’t good enough and think he will get picked off in a big way.
I still have Snowy, but only because i got 66/1 at Ladbrokes and that is great value. Has a chance but is he on the downgrade? He will be my only bet in the National this year as it is just too hard to call.
I think the national has changed now. In my view most future winners will carry around the 11 stone mark and above now it has become compressed. This year i am hard pressed to find any horse with a low weight who has a realistic chance of winning. Arbor is over rated and i am not convinced by Big Fella(he’ll probably go and win it now).
To be honest i wouldn’t be surprised to see the top 4 comprised of horses all carrying 11 stone plus.
Here is my top 6:
6pts. Tricky Trickster: Even off 11-04 he looks the best equipped horse in the race. Plus he will have Ruby on board. If he runs like he has been he will win. Only worry is how he comes out of Gold Cup run. Only 12-1 so no value.
5pts. Niche Market: Improving horse who must be there of thereabouts. Ran some cracking races this season. Carries 11-04 but how many horses below him are good enough to do better? Not many.
4pts. State of Play: No season form but his record after a break of 4 months or more is(not including his Hennessey run) reads 1112. Plus he was badly hampered but still finished 4th last year and carries 5lb less. Classy and jumps well. My big hope to challenge the 11st+ brigade. If the weights go up 3lb he will have 11-00 which may be too much for such a small horse. Will he go 3 places better than last year off 2lb less? Not sure about that.
Struggling now…
3pts. Black Apalachi: Was cruising last year when unseating. Very well may have won. Good run latest, 8 lengths 2nd to Vic Venturi carrying 5lb more, he will improve for that. Has form at Aintree when winning Becher in 2008. Has 11-06 tho but still a Solid chance.
2pts. Vic Venturi: Horse very much in form. Won the Beecher at Aintree in 2009. Must go well even off big weight. As i said before, i can’t see anything doing better off a lower weight.
1pt. Snowy Morning: 3rd in 2008 of a similar mark. Two years older now. Should be better at 10yo but seem to have stood still. Jumping worries but seems to love it at Aintree. Is there a big run to come in the National? I have a feeling there just might be.
Outsider: Trust Fund 200/1 – Won the Foxhunter at Aintree off 12-00. Used to carrying big weights. Has 10-06 in the National but is No73 so probably won’t get in. Is he good enough to win, probably not.
#701
February 21st, 2010 15:12
Hi Domi, is this a new Top 6 or your Top 6 for Top 6 Tipsters Table? If so, please find last table update and incorporate in. Table closes at midnight tonight.
#702
February 21st, 2010 15:17
Systemsman – Agree re Cane Brake – im already on at 80 or so on Betfair.
Re Montys PAss win in 2003, scores were;
Bindaree – Perfect score (finished 6th)
Gunner Welburn – 6.95 (finished 4th)
Supreme Glory – 6.58 (finished 2nd)
You’llneverwalkalone – 6.58 (PU lame)
Montys Pass – 6.48
So the winner was in the top 5 that year too…
#703
February 21st, 2010 15:30
Sorry, my tips were for the table. After adding my points the table now looks like this:
47 Gone To Lunch
36 Snowy Morning
23 Arbor Supreme
22 Hello Bud
21 Air Force One
19 Iris De Balme & Royal County Star
15 State Of Play
14 Cane Brake
9 Dream Alliance & Maljimar
8 Mr Pointment
6 Ticky Trickster
6 Niche Market
6 Ballyfitz
5 Character Building
4 Backstage
3 Ellerlie George
3 Black Apalachi
2 Vic Venturi
2 Kilcrea Castle, Le Beau Bai & Parsons Legacy
1 Comply Or Die, Madison Du Berlais, Mon Mome, My Will.
#704
February 21st, 2010 15:46
Systemsman/DE
Guess what we have to remember is that these historical lists are based on 40 or less runners
Currently we have 110 or so entered and maybe a possible 70 runners who could conceivably line up on raceday
So there maybe quite a few more trends matches now compared with those that actually race
Looking at the blog’s top 7:
47 Gone To Lunch – not a certain starter
36 Snowy Morning
23 Arbor Supreme
22 Hello Bud – might not get in
21 Air Force One – possible for Ireland
19 Iris De Balme – might not get in
19 Royal County Star
I just think unlike last year when the compression had no real effect on those that raced (only really affected those over OR 165 apart from trying to get WOA to race) we don’t know how many of those over 11’0 will run or if the weights will rise and so the shape of the race is alomost impossible to get to grips with at this stage I feel
Don’t let those nasty bookies get hold of your cash too soon – there will be value on raceday!
#705
February 21st, 2010 15:49
For all you Ballyfitz fans out there
BALLYFITZ, who ran a fine race to finish fourth behind Silver By Nature in the Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock on Saturday, could run in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle next month, en route to the John Smith’s Grand National.
RELATED LINKS
» Grand National betting
» World Hurdle betting
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies said on Sunday: “He did make one very stupid mistake which cost him dear at Haydock, but it could be that Aintree would be the making ofhim.
“We shall keep him in the National for the time being, and it is a definite option for him, but no decision will be taken until after Cheltenham.”
Ballyfitz, who is 33-1 with Boylesports for the Grand National on April 10, was one of a few Cheltenham candidates at Haydock over the weekend for Twiston-Davies, who was also delighted with Kayf Aramis – another with a World Hurdle entry – who chased home Souffleur in the Grade 2 3m hurdle.
“Kayf Aramis is in the World Hurdle and will also have an entry for the Pertemps Final,” said the trainer.
#706
February 21st, 2010 15:57
And finally, the scores for 2002 were;
Smarty – Perfect score of 7.58
You’re Agoodun – 7.08
Streamstown – 6.95
Bindaree – 6.48
So even though he only had 6.48, Bindaree was in the top 4 again that year.
Notice how few horses get perfect scores, in the years I have done in detail anyway.
#707
February 21st, 2010 16:17
Much as it pains me to do so I have to add Ballyfitz to my ante post bets; he was on my shortlist last year until his jumping fell apart. He was such a class act prior to that. Also Beat the Boys, Jekyll and Hyde character that he is. My ante post list is getting longer by the minute! If Kilcrea Castle wins the Racing Post won’t he fit most of the stats? [although that race doesn't seem to throw up National horses; I was chuffed with my ante post on Innox the year and he was a disappointment].
#708
February 21st, 2010 16:27
I agree with pablo’s post thats its almost impossible this year.
If only we could know the 2 most important aspects of all. ‘How the horse feels on the day’ and ‘how lucky the horse will be on the day’. When its as close as it is this year these become crucial.
Because of this i think it is also important to place some faith in your instincts.
Mon Mome clearly woke up in the form of his life. Others have in the past, Royal Athlete springs to mind. Some have had supreme luck such as Red Marauder. Others not so, like Clan Royal.
#709
February 21st, 2010 16:51
Really, really enjoyed your work Rascal – but Snowy Morning apart, don’t fancy your short list or trend breakers much! But your analysis was superb. A very interesting read. It’s all about opinions isn’t it!
#710
February 21st, 2010 17:35
Looking good for Ballyfitz fans:
BALLYFITZ, who ran a fine race to finish fourth behind Silver By Nature in the Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock on Saturday, could run in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle next month, en route to the John Smith’s Grand National.
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies said on Sunday: “He did make one very stupid mistake which cost him dear at Haydock, but it could be that Aintree would be the making ofhim.
“We shall keep him in the National for the time being, and it is a definite option for him, but no decision will be taken until after Cheltenham.”
#711
February 21st, 2010 17:37
Was at Haydock yesterday and it may mean little but I always watch from where the horses come in after the race and you see/hear very significant things sometimes…
These returned legless and/or v negative things said by jock to lad or trainer: Cloudy Lane, Hello Bud, Coe, Ballyfitz, Dream Alliance and Le Beau Bai all looked fit to drop or jocks being v negative.
Surprisingly Mon Mome looked fine and the biggest surprise of the lot (yes he lost but giving 10 lb and ner to a distance) Our Vic was v fresh
#712
February 21st, 2010 17:44
Sorry SilverBirch posted up before reading through – smart minds think alike.
Daniel could you repost up your list for this year (wherever it is now lol) so we can have it to hand to refer to on this page, thanks.
#713
February 21st, 2010 17:45
Was at Haydock yesterday and always watch from near where the horses come in after the race as you can pick up all sorts of things re how a horse looks after plus jocks comments to lad/trainer etc.
The following looked legless/fit to drop or jocks being ultra negative: Cloudy Lane (l/ftd), Coe (l/ftd) Hello Bud (l/ftd + unj), Le Beau Bai (l/ftd), Ballyfitz (l/ftd), Dream Alliance (unj).
These looked good : Mon Mome and even though new to distance and giving 10lb to the winner Our Vic looked fresh and Danny C was very positive and saying stuff about if had held him up migh thave been closer….
Mostly negatives I know and the winner looks a great shortlister already for 2011 GN but thought would pass on what saw and heard re GN entries.
From what saw of the race and no doubt you all saw on tv Ballyfitz wont jump round Aintree. LBB was legless (maybe going) and the rest you can forget although MM and OV had positives.
#714
February 21st, 2010 17:58
“DomiDarko says:
February 21, 2010 at 4:27 PM
I agree with pablo’s post thats its almost impossible this year.”
No its not DomiDarko, I think your suffering from Stats overload. After Cheltenham and in the week of the GN it will be a litle clearer when we know the final 40 or so. Stick with the key trends and Pablo’s and Daniel’s final lists (lets hope there is lots of overlap between the two) and I think you will find the winner!!
#715
February 21st, 2010 18:55
OK think I found Dan’s ratings for this year’s runners for us all to refer to:
Daniel Edwards says:
February 18, 2010 at 12:10 PM
OK – this is assuming;
1 – That they all have their last run between 3-7 weeks before the National (Rough Quest being the exception to the rule at 16 days, which lost cost him -0.95 points on the system)
2 – That they DO NOT run at Cheltenham.
Those with scores above 5.50 (17/20 stat) are;
Snowy Morning —- 7.58
Ellersie George — 7.08
Hello Bud ——– 6.95
Beat The Boys —- 6.88
Gone to Lunch —- 6.58
Cane Brake ——- 6.45
Parsons Pistol — 6.45
Ollie Magern —– 6.35
(6.35 or above is a 13/14 stat – RM the exception)
War of Attrition – 6.25
Joe Lively ——- 6.10
Ballyfitz ——– 6.08
Royal County Star – 6.05
Eric’s Charm —– 6.05
Dream Alliance — 5.83
One Cool Cookie — 5.78
Notre Pere ——- 5.73
Niche Market —– 5.73
Character Building – 5.68
#716
February 21st, 2010 18:55
Daniel what is the ratio – all winners appeared in Top 4 or 6 of your ratings each year?
#717
February 21st, 2010 18:57
crisp 73 – I hope you don’t mind me asking but did you cut Hello Bud of your list (1 yr before) because of left-handed RPR.
#718
February 21st, 2010 19:14
Miinneh:
After the run yesterday, seeing how legless HB was after the race and hearing SamTD saying ‘didnt travel or jump’ should be enough anyhow!
Also last 10 GN’s first 4 horses (40) 12 year olds 2/40 (HB) 7 year olds 0/40 (T Trickster).
#719
February 21st, 2010 19:24
Dont ask me to go into too much detail but if the winner is not in Dabniel’s list of 18 and most probably in the 13 with 6 or more points than I’am not a Systems man at all (I would say that as all my anti-post bets are in there bar Arbor Supreme). Pablo also gives 13 of these 18 runners a score of 27 points or more.
Our top scores (DL = in Daniel’s list)
47 Gone To Lunch in DL. Pablo gives 31
36 Snowy Morning in DL. Pablo gives 29
23 Arbor Supreme NOT in DL. Pablo give ?
22 Hello Bud in DL. Pablo gives 28
21 Air Force One NOT in DL. Pablo gives?
19 Iris De Balme NOT in DL. Pablo gives?
19 Royal County Star in DL. Pablo gives 28
15 State Of Play NOT in DL. Pablo gives ?
14 Cane Brake in DL. Pablo gives 26
Daniel what score has AS so far?
#720
February 21st, 2010 19:53
Will check in the morning and fill in the gaps for you systemsman – Having a quick look at his profile now, I would say (assuming he doesnt run at Cheltenham) he is around 5.05, but let me check that for you tomorrow.
Nick – are you sure you heard the right jockey re: Hello Bud’s jumping!?!?! I would be ASTONISHED if a jock got off him and said he didnt jump well. He looked absolutely foot perfect, even after the ground was clearly getting the better of him. Granted the last fence I didnt see him jump…
yes yes, I know the jock would know better than me, but as I say, im shocked.
#721
February 21st, 2010 20:00
Showlad – It appears as though all the winners were in the top 6 in the last ten years, but top4 is preferable.
#722
February 21st, 2010 20:19
State of Play almost impossible to rate due to lack of form/preparation – others with ? beside them would be in 26-29 region I guess with potentially more to come as they haven’t raced much this season (don’t have access to info right now)
#723
February 21st, 2010 20:31
“Daniel Edwards says:
February 21, 2010 at 8:00 PM
Showlad – It appears as though all the winners were in the top 6 in the last ten years, but top4 is preferable.”
Just think about it Daniel. Just 6x £20 bets (and mine are much bigger)each year for the last ten years and we would have:
Total Staked £200
Total won £4466 at SP
Profit £4266!!
Won
2009 £2000!
2008 £140
2007 £660
2006 £220
2005 £140
2004 £320
2003 £320
2002 £400
2001 £660
2000 £200
And this is at starting prices on the day (some we would have at much bigger prices for sure but may have taken MM at a lower price).
And also Pablo’s “Winner in the top 5 horses every year (that’s usually top 3 scores or equal)”
Pablo how far back does that go?
Easy after the event so only time will tell – but I’am in!!!
So DomiDarko cheer up the team WILL find the winner this year- I just know it!
#724
February 21st, 2010 21:21
I think you mean total staked, £1200 Systemsman, but yes, I see your point.
Problem is – is it sensible just to back the top 6, and miss out on a better bet elsewhere? Also, can you be disciplined to back just the top6 each year!!
I think im going to experiment this year – if a horse is in the top 6 and has ANY sort of chance, im backing him, even if it is just for small amounts.
#725
February 21st, 2010 21:26
To Nick M,
I hear what your saying. I wrote HB off a few months ago for several reasons.
About 12 year olds – I can’t agree. I wouldn’t write off an older horse if I thought he was good enough and matched my stats. You need to look at a bigger picture – 10 yr. trends on anything is 2 short.
Since 1957 there has been no run of more than 5 winners(age 8,9,10.) without an 11 or 12 yr. old winning.
You would have said the same thing just before the 1975 GN because the last 5 winners were – 8,9,9,8,9 but who won in 1975 – yes a 12 yr. old
We have now had 5 younger winners(9,10,10,9,9.) since Amberleigh House 12 yr. old. So I wonder have we a cracker this year aged 11 or 12. Maybe not ?
#726
February 21st, 2010 21:43
Also, given the number of runners they have, 12yos have a better record than 8 yos, both in terms of placing and winning.
I can dig up the numbers….
#727
February 21st, 2010 21:58
I cant count!
Correction:
“Just think about it Daniel. Just 6x £20 bets (and mine are much bigger)each year for the last ten years and we would have:
Total Staked £1200 (10 x £120)
Total won £4466 at SP
Profit £3466 (includes returned winning stake of £20)!!”
#728
February 21st, 2010 22:07
All the way back to 2002 now Daniel, crikey you’ve been busy! Good work and certainly you’ve created something to smile about as it seems to throw up a few no hopers everytime. Gold star!
Still wishing I’d taken Pablos advice in holding off bets til later like I used to, after recent events. Exceptions the snowy ticket and the lack of a TT ticket!
Still sulking here, sorry, and as for the little mention of DA since saturday I’d imagine alot of you are a bit sore about it too.
Thanks for the oncourse report Nick Mannion, interesting to here your thoughts, especially MM being suprisingly fine, as you know he uncharacteristically fluffed the last, just rusty then.
DomiDarko I totally concur with your analysis and like your list.
Out of interest how does TT fair in latest analysis tool, I am worried about him even if in the GC, can’t remember all criteria, buried already, minus one for being 7 I think?
#729
February 21st, 2010 22:09
Daniel yes I agree Hello Bud is a great jumper and showed no signs of a poor jump round yesterday.
With respect to Nick I will be sticking to trainer/jockey official statements. HB to me performed well on ground he did not like.
For me the Scots GN champ and stamina laden horse is dismissed at your peril. Please note: This is not an invite for a Hello Bud saga type thread lol.
#730
February 21st, 2010 22:22
Like most I have been scratching around looking for something under 11 st. and to be honest, I have looked at Ollie Magern – things are that bad. This lad hasn’t won a race since Nelson Mandela was in borstal(well, 17 chases ago).
As for Beat The Boys – 11 st. horse, no 30/30 stat, no key race form, 5 PU’s (max 3, 19/19), RPR-OR= 2.
PU in Kim Muir @26f, Welsh Nat. @30f, Midlands Nat, @34f, Badger Ales @26f, Neptune chase @26f. and fell in last years Blue Sq. Gold Cup. What a cracker, he seems to win or PU.
#731
February 21st, 2010 23:01
OK Team, my Top 6 for phase 2 (phase 3 is open directly after Gold Cup on Mar 19th):
6 points CANE BRAKE
5 points ELLERSLIE GEORGE
4 points NICHE MARKET
3 points HELLO BUD
2 points SNOWY MORNING
1 point BALLYFITZ
This making the final phase 2 table of the Top 6 Tipsters League as:
47 Gone To Lunch
38 Snowy Morning
25 Hello Bud
23 Arbor Supreme
21 Air Force One
20 Cane Brake
19 Iris De Balme & Royal County Star
15 State Of Play
10 Niche Market
9 Dream Alliance & Maljimar
8 Mr Pointment
7 Ballyfitz
6 Ticky Trickster
5 Character Building
4 Backstage
8 Ellerslie George
3 Black Apalachi
2 Vic Venturi
2 Kilcrea Castle, Le Beau Bai & Parsons Legacy
1 Comply Or Die, Madison Du Berlais, Mon Mome, My Will.
#732
February 21st, 2010 23:25
I see that Niche Market still makes double figures ,despite people moaning about his weight.
#733
February 21st, 2010 23:44
Ok, well I’ve managed a list of sorts, made a reasoned guess that weights could rise by 3lb, which helped me rule out MM, COD, TT, DA and NM as would be on or over 11-6.
6 SOP
5 Snowy
4 Iris
3 Cane Brake
2 Trust Fund
1 Whinstone
47 Gone To Lunch
43 Snowy Morning
25 Hello Bud
23 Iris de Balme
23 Cane Brake
23 Arbor Supreme
21 State of Play
21 Air Force One
19 Royal County Star
10 Niche Market
9 Dream Alliance & Maljimar
8 Mr Pointment
7 Ballyfitz
6 Ticky Trickster
5 Character Building
4 Backstage
8 Ellerslie George
3 Black Apalachi
2 Vic Venturi, Trust Fund
2 Kilcrea Castle, Le Beau Bai & Parsons Legacy
1 Comply Or Die, Madison Du Berlais, Mon Mome, My Will, Whinstone Boy.
#734
February 21st, 2010 23:54
Daniel E.- current list with Betfair prices.
Snowy Morning —- 7.58—-29/1
Ellersie George — 7.08—170/1
Hello Bud ——– 6.95——-56/1
Beat The Boys —- 6.88—-142/1
Gone to Lunch —- 6.58—-37/1
Cane Brake ——- 6.45——75/1
Parsons Pistol — 6.45—-379/1
Ollie Magern —– 6.35—–265/1
(6.35 or above is a 13/14 stat – RM the exception)
War of Attrition – 6.25–51/1
Joe Lively ——- 6.10——123/1
Ballyfitz ——– 6.08——-75/1
Royal County Star-6.05—170/1
Eric’s Charm —– 6.05—–189/1
Dream Alliance — 5.83—-43/1
One Cool Cookie — 5.78—161/1
Notre Pere ——- 5.73——104/1
Niche Market —– 5.73—–16/1
Character Building-5.68–28/1
#735
February 21st, 2010 23:57
I don’t think weights will rise, I think Madison Du Berlais will take his change even if none of the other two top weights don’t.
#736
February 22nd, 2010 00:03
I thought Russell (Racing Rascal) was going to post a top six, maybe waiting for next list.
Better late than never KJ
#737
February 22nd, 2010 00:14
yes no weight rise is entirely possible too, but for this top6 exercise I found this the easiest (only) thing to do.
16 mins early,
I like several others with weight too and if weights don’t rise, I’m still in trouble! after the weekend, if we had a weight carrying miracle of old, which I think possibility. VV, TT and BA have definately weighed themselves back in.
Hey! I was ney late laddy
did rascal not post? did he know closes tonight? think its been somewhat subdued after weights then runs and people haven’t realised its closing, maybe they can get an extension for their homework!?
#738
February 22nd, 2010 00:25
my idea of the winner is black aplachi was cruising in front last year until mistake so for me 1.proven over the fences 2.won over the distance 3.loves soft ground
#739
February 22nd, 2010 00:28
my idea of the winner is black aplachi was cruising in front last year until mistake so for me 1.proven over the fences 2.won over the distance 3.loves soft ground:-D
#740
February 22nd, 2010 00:31
All right then, just tidy up the 29 horses in the list for easy reference.
47 Gone To Lunch
43 Snowy Morning
25 Hello Bud
23 Arbor Supreme
23 Cane Brake
23 Iris De Balme
21 Air Force One
21 State Of Play
19 Royal County Star
10 Niche Market
9 Dream Alliance
9 Maljimar
8 Ellerslie George
8 Mr Pointment
7 Ballyfitz
6 Tricky Trickster
5 Character Building
4 Backstage
3 Black Apalachi
2 Kilcrea Castle
2 Le Beau Bai
2 Parsons Legacy
2 Trust Fund
2 Vic Venturi
1 Comply Or Die
1 Madison Du Berlais
1 Mon Mome
1 My Will
1 Whinstone Boy
#741
February 22nd, 2010 00:32
outsider for me has to be silver birch after i won with him in 2008
#742
February 22nd, 2010 00:37
If its still open this would be my current top 6:
6 Character Building
5 Iris De Balme
4 Hello Bud
3 Dream Alliance
2 Niche Market
1 Maljimar
47 Gone To Lunch
43 Snowy Morning
29 Hello Bud
28 Iris de Balme
23 Cane Brake
23 Arbor Supreme
21 State of Play
21 Air Force One
19 Royal County Star
12 Niche Market
12 Dream Alliance
11 Character Building
10 Maljimar
8 Mr Pointment
7 Ballyfitz
6 Ticky Trickster
4 Backstage
8 Ellerslie George
3 Black Apalachi
2 Vic Venturi, Trust Fund
2 Kilcrea Castle, Le Beau Bai & Parsons Legacy
1 Comply Or Die, Madison Du Berlais, Mon Mome, My Will, Whinstone Boy.
#743
February 22nd, 2010 00:44
I think, Showlad, would be pretty mean if he didn’t let you in Brody
#744
February 22nd, 2010 00:45
maljimar nice.
Come race day we’re all gonna be staring at this one, with clammy fingers over ‘bet now’ – the site crashing and…????
#745
February 22nd, 2010 00:50
To be sure, to be sure
Brody’s votes close Phase 2.
#746
February 22nd, 2010 00:50
Racing Rascal said that he was going to sort out three trend setters and three trend breakers.
Not heard anything today from him.
Reading his website before weights published and it was Dream Alliance crossing that winning post first in his vision. What a turn around from him.
#747
February 22nd, 2010 00:55
Top 6 Tipsters Final Phase 2 Table:
47 Gone To Lunch
43 Snowy Morning
29 Hello Bud
28 Iris De Balme
23 Arbor Supreme
23 Cane Brake
21 Air Force One
21 State Of Play
19 Royal County Star
12 Dream Alliance
12 Niche Market
11 Character Building
10 Maljimar
8 Ellerslie George
8 Mr Pointment
7 Ballyfitz
6 Tricky Trickster
4 Backstage
3 Black Apalachi
2 Kilcrea Castle
2 Le Beau Bai
2 Parsons Legacy
2 Trust Fund
2 Vic Venturi
1 Comply Or Die
1 Madison Du Berlais
1 Mon Mome
1 My Will
1 Whinstone Boy
#748
February 22nd, 2010 01:00
think alot of us are suffering from a sense of shattered Dreams at the moment Neil, unlike these apparent hardened fiends who could still vote GTL top! now thats faith!
Beat the Boys got ‘nil point’ which suprises also, as I thought he had a fan club, can’t remember conclusions but seems one thats been ruled out, even though he has 6.88 in the new DrEam analysis.
#749
February 22nd, 2010 01:48
The only reason I dropped him from my second list was because I was unsure where he’s heading to.
If you look back to my original dosage list you see he’s on my C list and quite plausible too.
#750
February 22nd, 2010 01:58
I actually been working on the national, and trying to crack it with the system I’ve used since 1998 (modify slighty )
This system predicted Earth Summit, Bindaree (on day only), What’s Up Boys (ante post), Amberleigh House, Red Marauder & Smarty, Silver Birch, and last year’s winner Mon Mome.
Sadly I didn’t back Red Marauder & Mon Mome & Silver Birch was a late bet with a couple of quid I had with my betfair account (got odds of 47/1)
#751
February 22nd, 2010 02:09
Daniel’s list had Ellerslie George in it (2nd).
This horse was not even mentioned until it appeared in my six.
It only appeared in my six because of its dosage figures plus meeting the other stats I wrote down.
I wonder why Daniel considered it?
#752
February 22nd, 2010 07:32
Some great analysis once again this year guys and gals, let’s keep it up!
Some of you may be interested to know that I have started to create a website about my passion for racing. Come along and check it out if you have time. Thanks.
http://www.thesprintking.moonfruit.com/
#753
February 22nd, 2010 09:08
Neil S – he meets all of my stats almost perfectly, hence his big score.
However, he seems an almost certain non-stayer to me.
#754
February 22nd, 2010 09:21
Somebody asked how many points Tricy Trickster has on my system at the minute – 0.95 at the moment, although of course this could go up by a point or so if is final prep run is in the right window (which it will be)
Obviously if he goes to the GC he will lose half a point.
Loses points for;
Age
Weight
number of chase runs
distance of C1 place
#755
February 22nd, 2010 09:27
He is a presenting progeny (like Niche Market & Coe ) earlier in the blog it was argued that Presenting progeny don’t stay despite the fact that Busted is their great grand sire.
Busted is a great sire for producing national winners and yet Presenting isn’t makes no sense to me.
By the way, War of Attrition & Denman are also Presenting progeny.
#756
February 22nd, 2010 09:37
Daniel, it was the fact that you said it doesn’t stay (Ellerslie George ) which kept me from placing a bet on it on Saturday.
If a Presenting progeny going to win the national then it will be Niche Market.
#757
February 22nd, 2010 10:15
I intended to reply to Neil’s first post by saying that he may be bred to stay, but im pretty sure he doesnt.
I was going to go through each of his races at or beyond 3m4f and show that he doesnt.
BUT in pulling up his profile on the RP website, I appear to have made a massive balls up!
He has only raced once at 26f…and he won it (Badger Ales this year)
I have obviously totally confused him with another horse, because I remember going through his profile and seeing plenty of PU at long distance races and no evidence of him staying beyond 3 miles. It now transpires that that must have been another horse!!
That said, he doesnt jump out at me as an obvious winner, but I think a saver is necessary for sure.
I also now need to find who the ‘non-stayer’ was as Ive definately put the comment in my records next to the wrong horse!!
#758
February 22nd, 2010 13:11
is it just me then that thinks big fella thanks has a chance.
nicholl’s and ruby both have stated how much better the horse is this year, now 8 and 3lb lower than 2008 surely he must have a squeak,especially if and it is possible i think ruby is on board.
#759
February 22nd, 2010 13:23
should have read 2009
#760
February 22nd, 2010 13:34
Mandie, he was one that just missed out on my list this time, just too many fancies, and as I feel I know him well, easier to be critical of. Ruled him out as a lack of prep, unlike last yr ultimately and maybe didn’t quite stay. Kinda replaced him with similar SOP 5lb better off. Kinda wish I’d put him in rather than Cane Brake actually as its so long since he shone, beaten what! etc. possibly blinded by the breeding, bit soft on be my native!
You should have posted him in yours!?
#761
February 22nd, 2010 13:54
thanks kj, not being as experienced as some of you on here,you sometimes think you are missing something.but i really do think that he has a chance as i feel it is not a year where there are horses crying out for a win bet. i feel there are alot you could back e/w hello,snowy,gtl and mr.p on his weight if runs.he is due for a prep run at 2m5f soon to “sharpen up” to quote ruby and pn.
by the way also feel sop has a chance for the frame aswell.
but no real strong win fancies for me at present.
#762
February 22nd, 2010 14:28
Looking back at weekend David Pipe, in the Mirror, seemed to suggets that Madison Du Berlais will run in the GN and there seems to be similar quotes today I think. So that would mean no weights rise.
In their last 8 chases (16/16 RPR>OR 7) Madison has an RPR>OR 15 and Mon Mome RPR>OR 11. Have any other top weights had such favourable stats? They both meet all the stats apart from weight, mind you, it’s a big stat isn’t it. But both of them also seem to be in reasonably good nick. I thought Mon Mome ran well on Saturday, a better horse than last year surely, much better than his performance in the race last year and against better horses I reckon, and is being ‘wound up’ nicely for 10th April. Red Rum won his second GN in election year, 74, last hung parliament the UK had, also the year of the tiger and beat an 11 yr old Irish former Gold Cup winner-Lescargot/War Of Attrition !!!
Back to reality. The 1 year before list …
Miinnehoma, I take it Hello Bud got his best left hand RPR of 141 or more in Scottish National, right? So he’s on the list.
Well, another I’ve found for the wild card list C is Parsons Pistol. Not sure what his best left handed RPR is but on the 30th April ’09 had a win place chase strike rate of 67% anyway. Not on our score board but a mention from Daniel. Won two C1 chases and near or bottom weight on the day. His best win was on an OR126 – only Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde out of the last 18 winners had not won a chase with an OR130 or more. Needs, I think, one more heave-ho to get his RPR in to the 150′s, probably a win, but still interesting nonetheless.
Up to date list of those meeting some trends of former winners 1 year before their win;
A; Comply Or Die, My Will, Gone To Lunch, Character Building, Mr Pointment, Iris De Balme, Hello Bud, Parsons Legacy.
C;War Of Attrition, Beat The Boys, Snowy Morning, Parsons Pistol
Ellerslie George. No C1 win or place until this season. 19/20 had a top3 C1 place 1 year before (including Little Polveir’s Scots Nat, Mr Frisk’ Hennessy 3rd and Seagram’s Ritz Club/William Hill Trophy 2nd and Racing Post 3rd, thought not sure they were actually called C1′s then). Party Politics didn’t though ran 2nd in Hennessy and Welsh National before GN win. Other than that very good strike rates for winning and win/place. ”Soon in rear, not fluent, behind from 10th, tailed off from 17th, virtually pulled up 3 out” is the RP’s on his Becher effort in ’08. May be that was the going though he’s ran well on soft but then ”Blundered 1st, headway 4th (water), weakened 14th, soon well behind, hopelessly tailed off” was RP’s verdict on his Topham run on good ground. Don’t think he likes the fences much does he or just an over critical view from the RP.
#763
February 22nd, 2010 14:32
Parsons Pistol won chase off OR129(not 126)
#764
February 22nd, 2010 14:44
crisp I have no idea if HB did or not. I don’t have access to RPR’s.
#765
February 22nd, 2010 15:03
Hi everyone,
Could we all please use the new thread for general comments – this thread has got too big and unfortunately I wasn’t around last week to set up a new one.
Thanks
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