Comments on: Grand National Tips 2010 (4)

By: Giant

Giant — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 20:24:32 +0000

Sorry for the typos above. Written a little too hastily.

By: Giant

Giant — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 20:22:35 +0000

Hi everyone,

Love the insight and debate on here. Served me well last year when backing State of Play early anti-post!

I assume everyone is ruling out Tricky Trickster due to age?

My early thoughts for what they are worth include Niche Market,My Will, Black Apalachi and Snowy Morning.

Niche Market’s win in the Irish National put him straight on the short list. His run behind Denman only solidified him in my mind and I think he shows up best in the spring horse.

My Will one year on, I think is cracking value. If he gets a good weight he could be a steal at current prices.

Black Apalachi looked all over the winner last season before falling. Immediately after last year;s race I thought he was a bet for next year. He has done nothing this year but is being trained specifically for the race. This weekend will be interesting regarding him.

Finally SM. He seems to have found his zest for the game again with some solid runs. Whether the handicapper will be kind to him and give him a squeak time will tell but at current odds he is definitely work a few quid each way.

By: banjo31

banjo31 — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 18:34:44 +0000

Can anyone figure out why BFT is declared to be running in a graduation chase this Friday (Ruby on board), 4 days before the weights are announced?? Seems an odd decision given that he remains on a mark of 149 for The National….

By: The Rascal

The Rascal — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 19:50:23 +0000

The smile was a typo – not a betting hint. I love the profile of Dream Alliance but will want some rain and I have a hunch for MY WILL but this is not a clear picture. I will elaborate I promise but little free time at present, sorry.

By: The Rascal

The Rascal — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 19:47:58 +0000

Well I’ve reviewed my stats and so on and have it down to 14 at the moment on trends/stats alone. Will be updating my site over the next week and will post a feature here once the weights are announced. But for ur info:

1) Dream Alliance
2) Beat The Boys
3) Casey Jones
4) One Cool Cookie
5) Can’t Buy Time
6) Eric’s Charm
7) War Of Attrition
Cloudy Lane
9) My Will
10) Snowy Morning
11) Royal County Star
12) Mon Mome
13) Hello Bud
14) Cane Brake

All others ruled out for one reason or another at the moment.

By: Me6

Me6 — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 16:24:31 +0000

Oliver Sherwood also has a website that it may, or may not, be worth keeping an eye on:-

http://www.oliversherwood.co.uk/News.php

By: Me6

Me6 — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 16:20:11 +0000

Hi people

Just to let you know that the original source of that Eric’s Charm quote was the attheraces stable tours:-

http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=505651&raceid=&title=Oliver+Sherwood+Stable+Tour&lid=features+-+stable+tours&ref=Features+-+Stable+Tours&nav=features&sub=&day=Tue

Gerald

By: DomiDarko

DomiDarko — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 16:19:52 +0000

I make SNOWY, MY WILL and NICHE the classiest horses with the best predicted weights and who will go on the ground. They are also the right age 10, 10 & 9.

One horse everyone seems to be forgetting is HELLO BUD. He is the one horse in the race who has supreme stamina who should get a low weight. He loves good ground but didn’t like the heavy conditions on his last two starts. He also likes to be in the leading pack. I have a little bit on him at 55-1.

By: Nick Mannion

Nick Mannion — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 16:18:48 +0000

The one thing I would say these days re weight/handicap in the National is that it is far more compressed as about 10.6 seems to be bottom weight (not sure what the lowest weight winner/s of last 10-15 yrs have been but I bet there is a trend for a spread of winners weights!) and more horses up the higher end of the handicap tend to run so a horse on say 11.4ish will both be getting weight and not giving as much to ‘fewer’ …which you dont have to go back to far to verify…Bindaree (for example) on 10.4 and 136 wouldn’t get a run these days….and thats only 2002..

Again these are just observations/thoughts…not written in stone or offered as the ultimate tip…

By: crisp 73

crisp 73 — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 16:08:31 +0000

Systemsman, I’m also favouring Arbor Supreme over Snowy Morning and My Will because of the ‘possible’ weight and handicap chase stats. Looking at the entries again I think bottom weight could easily be 10-0 OR137? At this moment, cross referencing every stat that I have with OR137 as bottom weight, Arbor Supreme, Eric’s Charm, Gone To Lunch, Snowy Morning, Trabolgan would appear to be the most likely winner. I’ve backed Dream Alliance but I think he would need bottom weight to be no lower than OR140. Roll on weights day.

Daniel, not all of us said unplaced can’t win!!