Grand National Tips 2010 (4)
2009 Grand National winner Mon Mome has the latest run in his season today at Haydock in the Peter Marsh Chase and whilst he looks up against it today it will be interesting to see how he fairs with a view to defending his crown in the Grand National 2010.
Other Grand National prospects on show this weekend include King Johns Castle and Southern Vic in a big handicap chase over 2m 5f at Leopardstown and Black Apalachi who is having his first run of the season in the Pertemps Hurdle Qualifier at the same meeting.
Black Apalachi seems to be lagging behind in interest on our blog compared to some of the other Grand National Runners and yet, at first glance, seems to have solid claims to be at the top of our staking plans.
Dessie Hughes seems keen to hold on to his existing handicap mark and there are no plans to run over fences until after the publication of the weights. Two incompletions in three attempts over the Grand National fences may temper enthusiasm but many a punter will be swayed by how well he was going when unseating at Bechers Brook last year and the imperious nature of his win in last year’s Becher Chase.
Please start adding your general thoughts on the Grand National 2010 on this page and start off by giving your opinions on the horses running this weekend but please also give a potential Black Apalachi backer the reasons why or why not they should back this horse for Grand National 2010.
This post has 691 comments
#1
January 23rd, 2010 11:50
Great to have some decent jumps racing back after the last few weeks.
Any reason as to why Kia Kaha is overpriced today?
Admin wants thoughts on Black Apalachi
#2
January 23rd, 2010 11:56
crisp 73, mighty work.
I presume that’s the last nail in Niche Market’s coffin.
Black Apalachi – donkey and that’s the positive side.
#3
January 23rd, 2010 11:59
Process of elimination has got me to Cloudy Lane – Jaunty Flight has been off for 9 months
Also like Kilcrea Castle at Ascot
Don’t think I can judge Black Apalachi until after his Bobbyjo run next month
#4
January 23rd, 2010 12:01
Agreed – Cloudy Lane the one to beat, but Kia Kaha is a very big price based on his 2nd to Shining Gale back in November
Sounds as if Kilcrea Castle could be heading to Aintree
#5
January 23rd, 2010 12:07
Beg to differ but how can you rule out Niche Market on the basis that he hasn’t won 4 races in his life yet has won a £39k Listed Handicap at Ascot and the Irish National (a key race!) – plus 3rd in Hennessy?
Just suppose he’d won 3 2-bit Novice chases and a Class 2 handicap and come 3rd in the Scottish National – would he really be any more likely to win?
#6
January 23rd, 2010 12:52
I’m not ruling out NM on not having won 4 chases, simply because of the class competion he has run with, stats need to be sensibly flexible and this is definately one of those cases.
As for BA, having not been seen since last years GN already a big negative and I’m not convinced having once mastered winning once round the track has as much clout as people may think including the handicapper.
More importantly for me has always been the nature of his falls in the GN, more specifically the steep landings that don’t come off!
Backed him last year and was extremely worried by how well he was going infront, if that makes any sense! if he’d stayed on his feet, who’s to say, he couldn’t have atleast placed! I don’t think he’s a donkey! but not top notch! don’t think its impossible, but it is with 11st1+
#7
January 23rd, 2010 13:34
Silver, think Maljimar is a great little outsider, especially if he can produce one of those steaming finishes into the frame! I mentioned him think after his appearance in the x country, looked good therefor first crack, although willing to accept that x country race can be a bad sign, can be positive, it was Silver Birchs route to aintree glory and at 200-1 woo! not bad.
#8
January 23rd, 2010 13:40
Kj – yes agreed – i thought i remembered somebody mentioning him previously but couldnt remember when . I also noticed hes by Un Desperado who produced cornish rebel,nil desperandum and philson run who were all dour stayers so ud have to hope he’ll stay … great little outside bet
#9
January 23rd, 2010 13:46
Yep, I mentioned Maljimar a couple of weeks ago. Don’t consider it one of my strongest bets but was worth a dabble at the old price
I’ve just had to have a token £1 e/w double on my two favourite horses today – L’Aventure & Mon Mome. Don’t expect either to finish in the frame but always worth a go!
#10
January 23rd, 2010 14:15
yes I remember writing about the un desperado link, can’t be at all bad!? still gutted about nil desperandum, I was really sure he would win that year!
Speedy, I find it hard to seperate old favorites/ characters who’ll probably do well even with big weight, from horses with real chance of winning, take the thyeses? tother day, I backed something that had won for me before, and one that woudn’t get in the GN unless it won, (fair enough there) when I should have backed my other 3 picks and had the 1,2,3! whinstone boy stood out a mile! I need a cut throat sidekick to stop me doing this!
I like you am bound to have a few sentimental bets, I can’t help myself, but if its a horse like Hedgehunter then that ain’t bad. Not saying MM is a hedgehunter but still, a horse winning again esp this race is the greatest dream to support!
#11
January 23rd, 2010 15:00
I think Phil should realise a repeat winner is what we all want, we want horse heroes!
this is THE race that reaches the masses, you gotta go for their souls man! you gotta bring them in make them believe the old war horses can win again!.. and your not seen as cruel! give a fair chance to previous winners and placers in the bloody weights! It will be good for the whole sport, so many people who only watch once a year have said this to me, its seen as cruel, we need to keep support for racing as a whole.
#12
January 23rd, 2010 15:39
Good run from Mon Mome keeping on nicely at the end
#13
January 23rd, 2010 15:40
And a 12yo winner for you KJ
#14
January 23rd, 2010 15:57
Great days racing. Peddlers Cross was very impressive and i don’t think the supreme novices is that clear cut at all. Fantastic performance by Our Vic, i’d think Palypso de Creek will go up a few pounds after that effort as well and might just get into the national.
#15
January 23rd, 2010 16:00
failed to back Our Vic there, always wins when I don’t haha, I’ll tell you next time, thought one of these young upstarts would go past!
12yr old magic, won with a beautiful combination of solid jumping, smooth travelling and staying power. Agree MM done good.
#16
January 23rd, 2010 16:23
Soft in the description and I think The Sawyer would be interesting for the Topham (plus Whinstone Boy perhaps) – ground too fast last year
#17
January 23rd, 2010 19:46
The Welsh National 2009
Just found this video. Just look at the speed of Dream Alliance after such a long run (Miko D B also did well and that Silver By Nature who finished so well is also one to watch for the future).
I dont think DA will want good ground but Hvy or Sft and even Gd/Sft will do fine.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/8433158.stm
Spending some time now looking at key races if I can find them on video to review all curent top selections.
#18
January 23rd, 2010 20:35
looking at this years welsh nat, those that were staying on I would say were Miko and Ballyfitz, both of whom we seem to be in the dark with regarding their intentions, any clues out there?
a while ago there was a firm commitment from NTD for Ballfitz, wasn’t there? I wasn’t interested in him then! now I agree the further he goes the better, haven’t heard a thing? how does he do on important stats anyone processed this forgotten one?.. anyway,
Miko would be a helpful few pounds lighter, Ballyfitz on 143 would get about 10-06, 4lbs less than the welsh version.
#19
January 23rd, 2010 20:50
Systemsman if you don’t have a racing post subscription then another place you could try is u tube although it is hit and miss. Also a stopwatch site whose address i’ve forgotten but you can probably google it.
#20
January 23rd, 2010 21:08
attheraces.com for free Irish National
http://www.cheltenham.co.uk/racing/watch_historic_races.html
for Cheltenham races plus previous years (some races)
#21
January 23rd, 2010 21:14
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/8371490.stm
Becher Chase – plus other Nationals, Welsh & Becher if search by name of horse I think
#22
January 23rd, 2010 22:06
Just a qick price note:
War of Attrition gaining support and the second half of his price graph looks very good – however he would need Mon Mome not to be top weight in my opinion (its posssible, Notre Pere is OR163 – is there anyone who may relisticaly run with a higher OR?). Perhaps the real surprise this year is going to be that Mon Mome isnt top weight on GN day – would give a real chance to DA, MDB and even WOA etc – we need to be prepared for this (two lists I think A – with MM as Top weight and B with another on a higher top weight – hopefully many will be in both but clearly not all)
Church Island 44/1 with Betfair and stil not quoted by the High Street bookies – what price will they open with?
Miko De B – whats happening? I want a bet but just cant risk throwing my money away until the big boys give a quote. I’ll just have to wait.
Anyone – just anyone think Tricky Trickster will win the GN out there? – if so please defend your runner. Where is all the money coming from? – I just dont get it but obviously many punters do???
#23
January 23rd, 2010 22:28
Systems – Both Miko and CI are my AP bets so far. Miko was in the entries for the national last year before falling in the Gold cup, so its probably on the agenda this season. Thought he ran very well in the Welsh national.
As for CI, 44/1 is an incredibly low price for a horse not yet quoted by a bookmaker, just shows how much confidence there is on him. His price is similar to the likes of My Will and Snowy Morning. He seems to put in some poor performances (slightly unlikely off 128 though) before his major targets, so hopefully he can drift back out after his comeback run
Havent backed Dream Alliance yet, not sure if he will handle the likely better going at Aintree, but the main reason is the fact that Phillip Hobbs has tended to leave his horses very fresh for Aintree over the past few years, so need to see him run again
#24
January 24th, 2010 01:31
What was the ground like when Dream Alliance came second to Denman in the Hennessey 2 years ago?
#25
January 24th, 2010 02:44
Maureen according to the sporting life site the going was soft
#26
January 24th, 2010 10:36
miinnehoma – ‘Black Apalachi – donkey and that’s the positive side.’
Miinne – Surely Grade Two wins over hurdles and fences, wins in the Irish Paddy Power and Becher Chase would make BA look out of place on Southport beach? Also, the 250k of prizemoney wouldn’t be bad?
I’m not sure he can win a GN but he surely merits serious consideration? Please give the reasons why you think he can’t win at Aintree but try and be constructive in case his owners ever drop in!
#27
January 24th, 2010 11:27
In relation to the Miko question . Did anyone see the interview with Venetia Williams on her gallops last week when discussing the Grand National . The two horses she instinctively mentioned that would be targetted at it were Mon Mone and Flintoff . So its still worrying times for Miko , albeit in another interview she stated she had 8 seasoned chasers who would be considered for it and nothing had been decided. I guess this is a tricky one and more nail biting will unfold . Hes definitely a decent stats horse and still a decent price on here but certainly seems like hes not a definite amd maybe a decision will not be made until after the Haydock Gold cup race
#28
January 24th, 2010 12:50
It seems the Haydock race is the main target for Miko – and why not given his record? It would be a surprise were he not to be given an entry for GN. But agree this will he/won’t he scenario will probably go on until after the Haydock race.
#29
January 24th, 2010 13:17
Tricky Trickster entered in Novices’ hurdle tomorrow at Fontwell – wonder how many National runners have made their seasonal reappearance at Fontwell?
Later on the same card Over The Creek competes in a handicap hurdle off top weight.
#30
January 24th, 2010 13:51
Afternoon!
Don’t suppose anybody knows the last 10 winners of the SkyBet Chase (The Great Yorkshire Chase) being run on 30th Jan at Donny??? Can’t find anything not even on Wiki. Cheers.
#31
January 24th, 2010 14:12
Pablo – interesting to see over the creek in action – however isnt he running out of time to get into the weights . any decent chase targets over the next few weeks for this fella ? – surely he needs a top 3 chase before the weights come out to have any chance..
#32
January 24th, 2010 14:29
This seems like a bargain – I provide the horses, and you provide the trends.
00 Beau
01 Heidi III
02 Moor Lane
03 Barryscourt Lad
05 Colourful Life
Only half the horses. I’ll have another look in a couple of minutes.
#33
January 24th, 2010 14:29
Matriarch
This site usually has some past winners
http://www.ratz4racing.co.uk/Sky-Bet-Great-Yorkshire-Handicap-Chase-24.htm
Silver Birch
Real shame this one hasn’t has a full season. He’s one of the only ones I would have had no doubts about staying if fit enough.
#34
January 24th, 2010 14:42
The GN 2010 is shaping up incredibly with a HUGE dividing line appearing between a relatively small group with real claims and a very large (and ever increasing group) of those who appear to have little claim.
Arbor dissapointed massively and horses tiped to be returning to form/dark horses eg Ballytrim, Himalayan Trail and today (v disappointing)King’s Advocate all deliver damp squids. Opportunities for embers of hope (v good prose for a Sun aft I thought)to fully ignite continually flop. High regards who need to improve OR to get in, go and enter in hurdles (Laventure and Over the Creek) EH? EH? In the words of Marvin Gaye “What’s goin’ on?!”
Only piece of momentum has come form Siegemaster’s easy 3rd, when nearly carrying top weight, on Thursday.
#35
January 24th, 2010 14:45
08 An Accordion.
I’ll have another look for some more.
#36
January 24th, 2010 14:48
Skybet winners 2003-2009
2009 Big Fella Thanks (D) 7g PF Nicholls Christian Williams 13 9/2 (2f)
2008 An Accordion (D) 7g D Pipe JW Farrelly 17 11/2 (f)
2007 ! Simon (D) 8g JL Spearing A Thornton 10 7/1 (Jt 3f)
2006 ! A Glass In Thyne (D) 8g BN Pollock A Thornton 15 16/1
2005 Colourful Life (D) 9g PF Nicholls J Tizzard 12 9/1 (Jt 3f)
2004 Tyneandthyneagain (CD) 9g R Guest H Oliver 11 7/1
2003 Barryscourt Lad 9g MC Pipe R Greene 18 9/2 (2f)
#37
January 24th, 2010 14:49
Thanks Pablo.
The missing ones, apparently, are
09 Big Fella Thanks
07 Simon
06 A Glass In Thyne
04 TyneandThyneagain.
I’ll check what date each was run, the value, and whether they were all 3 miles.
#38
January 24th, 2010 14:51
Cheers Pablo and Me6!!! Need to claw some bac after that Peter Marsh Chase yesterday!
#39
January 24th, 2010 14:53
And whatever happened to ‘Simon’ was always tipped for big things especially the GN but never quite made the grade.
#40
January 24th, 2010 15:04
Simon and A Glass In Thyne were 25f at Southwell.
#41
January 24th, 2010 16:04
I am still very interested in Over The Creek. He was on my list last year but obviously never made the race. I remember Pipe saying he was going to be aimed at The National and staying races this season and was his dark horse fo the year. He is leaving it a bit late because it would seem he needs to go up in the weights. He hasn’t traded at massive odds on Betfair which is a good sign…I am wondering if I should have a cheeky few €’s on before he runs tomorrow? I will kick myself if he runs well and shortens for the National. Decisions decisions!
#42
January 24th, 2010 18:03
Running tomorrow? He’s been on my ante post list for a few years now. Surely will have to do something amazing between now and when the weights are announced to get into the race this year?
#43
January 24th, 2010 18:12
If everyone had to pick a top 6 and an outsider at this stage based on current form, good ground on the day and predicting the weights what would it be, presuming that all fancied horses will run?
Mine would be, subject to change and in no particular order:
Dream Alliance – Looked very powerful when winning Welsh Nat
Niche Market – Improving, 3rd in Hennessey and won Irish Nat
Gone to Lunch – Was running-on 2nd in Scot Nat under big weight
My Will – Very consistent, ran well last year, perfect age
Snowy Morning – 3rd in 2008, OR near the same mark now
Big Fella Thanks – 6th last year but a year older and stronger
Outsider: Brooklyn Brownie – Capable of going well off a low weight which he should get. Will also like the ground.
So far have backed, with a view to laying:
My Will 45-1 (now 40-1)
Gone To Lunch 75-1 (dropped to 60-1, now up to 90-1) Doh!
Brooklyn Brownie 530-1 (now 230-1)
#44
January 24th, 2010 18:40
Hi Domi we’re doing our next Top 6 Votes after weights on Feb 16. Just now generally posting up our general favs (or ‘hotties) and ones to watch (or hotties to watch lol)has proved to be helpful.
My (not extensive) hotties just now:
Favs: Dream; Church; Niche; Hello; Comply; Snowy.
Ones to watch: Trabolgan; Siegemaster; Ballyfitz; Beat the boys; Arbor; Iris de balme; Old Benny; Over Creek.
#45
January 24th, 2010 18:45
Thanks for info on Dream Alliance Neil. Apologies re Over the Creek as I repeated what Silver Birch had said earlier. You guys have been pretty busy today!!
#46
January 24th, 2010 19:01
Snowy Morning is in danger of having too many runs!
#47
January 24th, 2010 20:27
“Showlad says:
January 24, 2010 at 2:42 PM
The GN 2010 is shaping up incredibly with a HUGE dividing line appearing between a relatively small group with real claims and a very large (and ever increasing group) of those who appear to have little claim.”
Agreed Showland which should make our job easier but its the ones on the edge of being in the top six that are hard at the moment and the long trem plans of some good ones like MDB (anyone out there know the stable and fancy sending an E-Mail?)
Just cant get my head around Niche Market(n fact i dont see him winning but I have an anti-post bet on him) there is so much wrong with the profile and that very, very tiring race aganist Denman (look what happened to DA) but he has the class and form does he not!
#48
January 24th, 2010 20:48
Dream Alliance was injured at Aintree; it wasn’t just the race against Denman that took it’s toll. Seems to have been a bit of money on Big Fella Thanks today; surely can’t be my 25pence ew at William Hills yesterday??!! Has something been said about him that I’ve missed?
#49
January 24th, 2010 21:48
Tricky Trickster running in a hurdle in the 1.05 at Fontwell on Monday will shake up the head of the market if he does not win (looks like a two horse race to me and TT really should win)- its only a grade 4 hurde so he should win with ease if he is going to stand any chance in the GN. If he wins its proves nothing other than he’s fit (but his price may drop a bit more – all the better for us I think! – it will take the pressure of one or two others).
#50
January 25th, 2010 00:01
At this stage:
Snowy Morning (top) then in no order, Comply Or Die, Miko De Beauchene, My Will, Niche Market, State Of Play, War Of Attrition plus 3 longshots Cane Brake, Royal County Star & Over The Creek
#51
January 25th, 2010 00:05
BFT had 5 of his 6 prep runs by this time last year, match fit and didn’t quite get home, although only 7, can he improve enough,. this time only been out once! beaten 23l in a slow race. This is why I haven’t backed him yet… all 25s going, like maureen said whats happened?
#52
January 25th, 2010 00:12
Snowy your no.1 Pablo, wow!
always a horse you feel if he jumps better could easily win, seems to get away with it even tho it often looks dramatic, unlike say Chelsea Harbour now why is that?
#53
January 25th, 2010 00:22
is snowy just a masterly balanced creature like a ballet dancer?
like your list Pablo, still not buying into CI then, me neither. RCS is a suprise, think we’re all considering such an array of outsiders, its mind boggling this year.
#54
January 25th, 2010 01:23
admin, re- Black Apalachi
I use the term donkey for horses that I think have no chance of winning the Grand National. Now I’m sure BA is a lovely wee horse and will win more races but not the GN in my opinion. Last year I called him, Chelsea Harbour and Hear The Echo – the 3 donkeys and nothing about BA has changed since then.
My opinion is based solely on the stats that I believe in. The first and important one I use when looking at GN runners is the controversial stat called 1st,2nd,3rd,Chase Strike Rate (last 19 winners). It seems to be a cracker of a stat if it favours your chosen one but a very much maligned stat if it does not. For me this stat is the business, it immediately sorts out the donkey list, but like any stat it’s only a cracker if it holds.
Up to a few months ago I would have said BA can’t win and at best he might be placed. But after crisp 73′s extensive work on this stat regards placed horses in the last 16 Nationals and his 2 new time lines of April 30th and Dec 31st for the winners ( which you should know, if you have been following the posts ) would make me now think that BA’s chance of even a place is slim to none.
Say no more, where do I send the bill and if BA wins I plead insanity by numbers.
#55
January 25th, 2010 10:25
SkyBet Chase 30/01/10:
OR between 115 – 136 10/10
Age bwtween 7 – 9 8/10 (Others 6yrs & 10yrs)
Wgt between 10,1lb – 11,2lb 10/10
Competed in between 2 – 10 chases 10/10
Between 1 -4 seasonal runs 10/10
Ran three miles + in two of last three races 8/10
Ran between 16 – 56 days 9/10
Ran between 16 – 77 days 10/10
Ran in Cls 3 or higher LTO 9/10
SP no bigger than 20/1 10/10
With above in mind I fancy Khachaturian (altho has 5 runs already this season) Zitenka and (maybe) Pocket Aces.
#56
January 25th, 2010 11:38
Pablo that was a very brave list and so different to mine – its got me thinking I will now have to look at all your selections. I’am going to have a good look at your Snowy Morning for sure in the next day or so.
We now have a period of reflection before the weights are out and its a good time to go back to square one and review all the work. I agree with miinnehoma a good review start is the 1/2/3 chase strike rate plus the 30/30 stat(1/2/3 irish, welsh ,scottish national etc etc)
#57
January 25th, 2010 12:02
Systems, would this be a good time to post up the ‘master key stats’ again then? Do you have them???
#58
January 25th, 2010 12:22
I’m going to have an ew on Snowy Morning at 40/1, as well; I just feel there’s a big race in him, and with a bit of luck [messed up the water jump last year, didn't he?] and leniency from the handicapper he could go close. Especially as WM seems to be freshening him up mentally by giving him shorter races to run this season.
#59
January 25th, 2010 12:25
Hi all,
What do people think of Palypso de creeks chances? ran in beacher to see if he handles the fances, which he did IMO. ran a blinder on saturday behind our vic.. ( no way should he have gone off at 33-1 when hes won a 3m chace in heavy going in france).im happy as i backed him!! remained at 66-1 after both of thoses races.. . if he goes up in the weighst a little i can see him getting a nice low weight . a little cut in the ground and he may well have a chance.. ive had a little e/w bet already ..thoughts please?
#60
January 25th, 2010 13:45
I am assuming that the Key stats that you are referring to are:
1. Official Rating has to be above hundred and thirty five (on day).
2. Run in a least ten chases.
3. Won a chase of at least seventeen grand.
4. Age between eight to twelve. (inclusive) 43/43.
5. Top four chase, top three hurdle this season (counting season beginning May)
6. Won a chase in the last ten chases.
7. Two to eight prep runs 28/28.
8. Two to seven weeks since last run 28/28.
9. Weight below eleven stone four pounds 27/27.
10. Top three class one chases 25/25.
11. Won at three miles or more 39/39.
12. Placed at three miles four furlongs 32/39 (three of the seven didn’t race beyond three miles three furlongs).
13 Racing Post Rating of hundred and forty four or greater 20/20.
14 Racing Post Rating of hundred and forty one or greater going left handed 20/20.
15. Two falls or less in entire career 12/16.
16. First five in Hennessy or first three in Irish/Scots/Welsh/ National or top two over the Grand National fences or three wins at three miles including a victory at three miles four furlongs or greater (first condition 16/19, second condition 12/12).
17. Weight got to be twelve pounds or less from bottom weight (on day).
18. Top three in a class one chase over three miles or greater.
19. Top three in any previous three runs.
20. Top speed of hundred and twenty eight or greater.
21. Last run no greater than fifty days.
22. Chase strike rate of forty five percent or chase and hurdle of forty eight percent if chase chase strike rate is fifty three percent or greater.
These are what systemsman put down as the stats on 15 January 2010, 7:15PM Grand National tips 2010 (3).
#61
January 25th, 2010 13:48
Neil when you’re doing research next could you give the occurence figure for each of the above key stats. Would be much appreciated.
#62
January 25th, 2010 13:59
Cheers Neil.
Tricky Trickster 2nd at Fontwell today. Over the Creek still to come though in the last race at Fontwell.
#63
January 25th, 2010 14:19
Well no wonder no one on here spported TT. 2nd when heavy odds on in a Class 4 Hurdle. To be fair its a long way to GN day but its poor grade race he should have won if he’s to be the “false” Fav!
#64
January 25th, 2010 14:22
Sorry, just read Tricky Trickster got beaten in the 1.05 at Font.
Comments are ” Led 10th, Soon ridden drew clear of remainder, but always being held by winner from 3 out.” The race was slow by 56.7 seconds.
The distances involved. 1st Chamirey beat 2nd Tricky Trickster by 4.5 lengths and the pair was 30 lengths clear of Alteranthela.
Reprinting stats again like Showlad says its easier on the eyes.
1. OR 135+.
2. Ran in 10+ chases.
3. Won a chase of £17,000.
4. Age 8-12.
5. Top 4 chases or top 3 hurdles (starting from May).
6. Won 1 chase from last 10 chases.
7. Prep runs 2-8.
8. Weeks since last ran 2-7.
9. Weight below 11-04.
10. Top 3 class 1 chase.
11. Won at 3 miles+.
12. Placed at 3.5 miles.
13. RPR of 144+ (overall).
14. RPR of 141+ (LH).
15. No more than 2 falls in career.*
16. First 5 in hennessy or top 3 in Scots/Irish or Welsh National or
top 2 over grand national fences or 3 wins at 3 miles+ including 1 at 3.5 miles+.
17. Weight has to be in range of 12lb from bottom weight on day.
18. Top 3 in a class 1 chase at 3 miles+.
19. Top 3 in previous 3 runs.
20. Top Speed (ts) of 128+.
21. Last run no more than 50 days.**
22. Chase strike rate 45% or chase and hurdles strike rate of 48% if chase strike rate is 53%+
* Career falls are you also counting brought down in this, because it could be a little unfair.
** This stat seems covered by me with stat 8.
#65
January 25th, 2010 14:29
RE. GN STATS:
Was it also mentioned earlier that the last 17(???)winners had all recorded a ‘win’ by Dec 31st?
#66
January 25th, 2010 16:14
Well im afraid that didnt look too hot for all us creek fans out there. Seemed to be struggling in that final mile or so and id be amazed if hes the national winner now . Maybe the years are catching up with him or possibly given he is now 11 he needs a few races to get him cherry ripe . Whatever it is I suspect he is seriously running out of time here. Henessy is also out for the rest of the season
#67
January 25th, 2010 16:57
I would suggest u dont want to be lumping any more money on Gone to Lunch
Gone To Lunch is an intended runner in Saturday’s Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster.
The Jeremy Scott-trained 10-year-old will make the long trip from the edge of Exmoor to South Yorkshire for the historic three-mile handicap chase ahead of a return to Ayr for the Scottish Grand National in April, a race in which the classy stayer was a close runner-up last term.
Scott confirmed: “The principal plan is to go to Doncaster for the Sky Bet Chase and then we will be looking at a return to Ayr for the Scottish Grand National. We covered the Sky Bet Chase entry with one in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham, just in case of bad weather at Doncaster.”
#68
January 25th, 2010 17:35
Thanks silver alway thought that G T L was not aintree bound, but not quite sure hence the inclusion in my list.
#69
January 25th, 2010 18:02
Re: Gone to Lunch
It was all there to see in the price profile (which I think will prove very useful this year). Pity I had too early an anti-post (pre christmas)bet but “you win some you lose some” when doing anti-post.
That’s one we can take out of the top 25 list – just a wee bit easier now!
#70
January 25th, 2010 18:56
Article in Sporting Life Website claiming Trickster still national fav despite defeat.
Tricky Trickster remained at 16/1 fav for GN with hills after finishing 2nd to Chamirey at Font.
Having won the National Hunt Chase (chel last season) and then changed hands for 320,000 guineas (calculated to be £336,000) and moved from NTD to PN, there was an exaggerated market move for the 4/11 fav but Chamirey was always in control on the 2nd circuit.
Ruby (Walsh) mount closed the gap approaching the last flight but Chocolate (Robert Thornton) had something left and won by 4.5 lengths.
Hills left TT unaltered as their fav for the GN a race in which Nicholls as not yet won.
Nicholls was quoted as saying,
” That’s just what I expected. I’ve said all along that he wouldn’t be fully wound up for his first run and we’ve got targets down the road, including a possible run in the Gold Cup.
I didn’t have him right in the autumn and I suspect he’s a spring horse. We know he’ll improve enormously and we only bought him for one race. We want to do the job properly.”
#71
January 25th, 2010 18:57
GTL and we can possibly write off Creek – th e list ever shortens!!
Thanks Neil, have you a % for each key stat that is missing a frequency % eg % that won race over 17k; % that had 2 – 8 prep runs? Be great if we knew how ‘strong’ each stat was.
#72
January 25th, 2010 18:59
I take it the ‘one race’ Nicholls refers to is the GN, yes? Just checking lol.
#73
January 25th, 2010 19:07
Hi all, shame about GTL. I had money on him. Oh well.
I’m still learning my trade so to speak in this field so just wanted to get peoples expert views on the chances of these outsiders i have plucked from the depths. Thanks.
Nine De Sivola
Kornati Kid
Flintoff
#74
January 25th, 2010 19:11
Oh and Russian Trigger!
#75
January 25th, 2010 19:18
Hang on, he’s not even in it is he?
Admin please can u delete the travesty that is 24 & 25. Thanks
#76
January 25th, 2010 19:33
DomiDarko Russian Trigger suffered a fatal accident.
Showlad I’ve put the stats up on the original list. These stats are new to me so don’t know if they work but they look well thought out and you did get comply or die two years ago (I presume).
#77
January 25th, 2010 19:35
I’ve got my own system for the national (still it will be interesting to compare notes in roughly a month’s time.)
#78
January 25th, 2010 19:44
Hi Neil, not quite understanding you..
You have the stats but several stats ‘winner over 17k’ or ’2 – 8 prep runs’ etc don’t have a frequency of their occurence beside them eg ’29/30 had won a 17k’ or ’27/29 had run 2 – 8 prep races’ etc. That’s what I was meaning..
#79
January 25th, 2010 19:47
Conduit – I backed Palypso de Creek on Saturday and also thought he was overpriced. However, he is a 7 year old and for that reason I won’t back him for National
Domi Darko – Nine de Sivola doesn’t seem to like winning however he does stay so would be interesting. However, he hasn’t run this season and haven’t heard any noises about him running. As for Flintoff, he is rather inconsistent and don’t think he has quality for National
That’s two of my top 6 gone with Gone to Lunch and Over the Creek. Over the Creek could improve over the slower run longer chases before Aintree however I would think he needs a win in at least a class 2 chase before weights are announced in order to get rating up. Based on today, there is little chance of that happening.
I’ve always seen Gone to Lunch and Casey Jones as very well matched. Let’s just hope CJ gets over travel sickness and goes to Aintree!
#80
January 25th, 2010 19:52
Ahh!!! I see (says the blind man)
Showlad all I did was copy them down from an earlier post.
Prehaps Systemsman can help us or Pablo.
#81
January 25th, 2010 19:58
Different to you Systemsman – my current list is only in theory because I will not be having any bets until much nearer the race so my list might change by the week without hurting my pocket – got enough on Cane Brake & Casey Jones for longshots and don’t see any value anywhere else – but I’m sure that they’ll be value out there nearer the time
#82
January 25th, 2010 20:02
This was put up a few weeks ago – not sure if it’s up to date
1. Aged 8-12. 62/62
2. Top 4 chase, top 3 hurdle this season, 43/43
3. Won 1 of last 10 chases 16/16
4. 2-8 prep runs 28/28
5. 2-7 weeks since last run 28/28
6. Weight less than 11-4, 27/27
7. Top 3 C1 chase, 25/25
8. Won at 24f or more, 39/39
9. 32/39 placed at 28f or more, 3 of the 7 didn’t race beyond 27f)
10. RPR of 144 or more 20/20
11. RPR of 141 or more LH 20/20
12. Has won a C1/C2 chase worth 17K 17/17
13. 2 or less career falls 12/16
14. Win & Place SR of 47%+ @ April 30 the preceding year 16/16
15. The 30/30 stat (most important i think)
A top 5 Hennessey/top 3 Irish,Scots Welsh National/top 2 in race over GN fences/
B 3 wins at 24f including one at 28f or more
(A is 16/19 & 12/12)
#83
January 25th, 2010 20:04
Neil: Lol
Tried to point that out delicately ha ha
Pablo, pocket no hurty much, yes, but your odds will be mucho shorter…each to their own system, I suppose.
SkyBet should be classic
Surely SOMETHING has got to show some glimmer of GN form. GTL will no doubt be on wrong ground again, as in Welsh…
#84
January 25th, 2010 20:06
Oh, and French bred 1/100
#85
January 25th, 2010 20:27
showlad, if we used the same stats we would all come to the same conclusion. Fine if the winners in there.
However you could miss another Mon Mome, I think that the spirit of the pre-new year’s list is a good idea. Work out the national in our own way (including feelings for horses) and compare notes.
Also later when we’ve got a new list argue the pro and cons of each horse in our list.
#86
January 25th, 2010 20:50
Pablo;
Had a quick look at Snowy Morning.
Good:
OR + form this year (OR gives him a much better chance than last year – will the handicaper play ball?).
Seems to be able to run in GN and still do well after (unlike most others).
Chase strike rate.
Done well in some good quality races.
Price profile very good for last 2/3 of price graph
Bad.
Cant sse a 30/30 stat unless you are counnting the 3rd in the GN which was not used.
Poor record over longer distance accept for that 3rd in the GN.
Prone to mistakes even if he gets away with them (but the GN is very unforgiving.
I have an open mind on this one at this stage.
Pablo would be very keen to hear your views on SN chances.
#87
January 25th, 2010 21:15
Systemsman
I just think if he’s given a chance by the handicapper (<150) he should go very well. Although he’s got recent form on Heavy it’s over shorter trips and I think he’s better on decent ground & going left-handed. Also his jumping can be in and out but he’s completed the GN course twice from two attempts.
There isn’t an outstanding candidate for me this year and I reckon Aintree experience might help. 5/9 had run in GN the previous year. Of the other 4, COD was injured the previous year, Numbersixvalverde was winning the Irish National, Monty’s Pass was 2nd in the Topham and Bindaree 4th in the Topham (as a Novice).
#88
January 25th, 2010 21:50
Course form being overlooked a little? None of the top fancies have much course form
Irish Raptor – Personally don’t think he’ll stay, needs a 1/2/3 in a C1
Gwanako – needs a slight drop in weights
Pak Jack – needs a rise in weights, completed national course 4/5 times
Mr Pointment – needs a run!!
Keenans Future – needs a big rise in weights
Black Apalachi – Needs a run!!
Oodachee – needs a rise in weights
Its hard to see Snowy Morning not getting the Aintree treatment from Phil Smith and i’d expect him to be put up to a mark of around 152ish. Kept on his current mark would give him a great chance as he seems in much better form. The horses rated 140-149 seem a lot stronger this year, although not many have course form, i’d expect one to prevail. Paul Nicholls hasnt mentioned My Will in terms of the national this year – wonder if Gwanako might run instead for the Stewarts
#89
January 25th, 2010 21:55
Is Treacle likely to run?
#90
January 25th, 2010 22:01
Neil, yes I am aware of using same stats produces same winner, doh.
I’m just meaning the generally accepted key stats, if there in table form, with as much info beside each stat(eg frequency of stat occuring) is helpful for us to refer to.
Pablo lol re 1/100 French stat.
So here are key stats with frequency of occurence posted beside. Anyone with further/more up to date info please amend, especially frequency of stat occuring where missing. 6 of the 21 stats have no frequency of occurence info. Ta.
1. OR 135+.
2. Ran in 10+ chases and won 1 of them in last 10 chases 16/16.
3. Won a chase of £17,000. 17/17
4. Age 8-12. 62/62
5. Top 4 chases or top 3 hurdles (starting from May). 43/43
6. Prep runs 2-8. 28/28
7. Weeks since last ran 2-7. 28/28
8. Weight below 11-04. 27/27
9. Top 3 class 1 chase. 25/25
10. Won at 3 miles or more. 39/39 (extra info: 32/39 placed at 28f or more, 3 of the 7 that weren’t didn’t race beyond 27f anyway)
11. Placed at 3.5 miles.
12. RPR of 144+ (overall). 20/20
13. RPR of 141+ (LH). 20/20
14. No more than 2 falls in career. Frequency is only 12/16*
15. POSSIBLY MOST IMPORTANT: First 5 in Hennessy or Top 3 in Scots/Irish or Welsh National or Top 2 over Grand National fences or 3 wins at 3 miles+ including one win at 3.5 miles+. This Stat is 30/30.
16. Weight has to be in range of 12lb from bottom weight on day.
17. Top 3 in previous 3 runs.
18. Top Speed (ts) of 128+.
19. Strike rate: Let’s just say s/r overall minimum is 45% whatever (whether chase alone, or chase/hurdle combo)
20. Win & Place SR of 47%+ @ April 30 the preceding year 16/16
#91
January 25th, 2010 22:02
should say 6 of 20 stats doh
#92
January 25th, 2010 22:06
Mon Mome
Comply Or Die
My Will
State Of Play
Big Fella Thanks
Snowy Morning
Preists Leap
Offshore Account
Can’t Buy Time
Silver Birch
Parsons Legacy
Black Apalachi
Were among those that ran last year in GN – would it be a major suprise if one of that lot won the GN – not really
#93
January 25th, 2010 22:09
Just made nearly of my money back thru laying, so i only have small bets on now. Managed to sell my Gone to lunch bet too!
I think i will pick just one main horse after the weights are out.
I know of someone (not personally) who has spread bet £2000 already. Not sure how he expects to make a profit doing that.
For me, that also takes away from the most important thing of all that the National brings…the fun and magic.
Theres something that turns me back into an little boy again on National day, holding my £1 betslip with wonder and anticipation…my eyes transfixed with glee watching jockeys colours shining in the sun. Feeling my heart swell with adrenalin as my horse gets over the last and is still in it on the long run in. The crowds roar overwhelming my ears. Nothing can beat it.
No amount of money can beat that can it? (Don’t answer that!)
#94
January 25th, 2010 22:14
can only see CoD and Snowy Morning winning out of last year. As i said SM mark will probably be raised and CoD only one run this season and will probably only have one other at the festival. At the moment i think the horses possibly rated in the 140′s are much better this time around
#95
January 25th, 2010 22:38
Good point systems have amended key stats part for 30/30 key race to in luce Top 4 in GN itself (of course that change should be there). Gn must be rated higher than Irish, Welsh or Scots but fair enough maybe not as high as Hennessy.
1. OR 135+.
2. Ran in 10+ chases and won 1 of them in last 10 chases 16/16.
3. Won a chase of £17,000. 17/17
4. Age 8-12. 62/62
5. Top 4 chases or top 3 hurdles (starting from May). 43/43
6. Prep runs 2-8. 28/28
7. Weeks since last ran 2-7. 28/28
8. Weight below 11-04. 27/27
9. Top 3 class 1 chase. 25/25
10. Won at 3 miles or more. 39/39 (extra info: 32/39 placed at 28f or more, 3 of the 7 that weren’t didn’t race beyond 27f anyway)
11. Placed at 3.5 miles.
12. RPR of 144+ (overall). 20/20
13. RPR of 141+ (LH). 20/20
14. No more than 2 falls in career. Frequency is only 12/16*
15. POSSIBLY MOST IMPORTANT: First 5 in Hennessy or Top 4 in GN itself or Top 3 in Scots/Irish or Welsh National or Top 2 over Grand National fences in another race or 3 wins at 3 miles+ including one win at 3.5 miles+. This Stat is 30/30.
16. Weight has to be in range of 12lb from bottom weight on day.
17. Top 3 in previous 3 runs.
18. Top Speed (ts) of 128+.
19. Strike rate: Let’s just say s/r overall minimum is 45% whatever (whether chase alone, or chase/hurdle combo)
20. Win & Place SR of 47%+ @ April 30 the preceding year 16/16
#96
January 25th, 2010 22:39
in luce should read include
#97
January 25th, 2010 22:47
16. Weight has to be in range of 12lb from bottom weight on day.
How strong is that stat? Mon Mome off 161 means possible bottom weight of 137. Bottom weight carried 10’5 (139) though last year. Backing anything in the 150′s would be slightly risky at the moment
#98
January 25th, 2010 22:55
TC says:
“horses possibly rated in the 140’s are much better this time around”
Inclined to agree but i am keeping an open mind (no more Rambo’s for me). I really do think (basrd on 10 year+ trends and the quality of many runners i am looking at) that the winner will be back in the OR137 to OR148 bracket with OR141 to OR148 most likely (10.04 to 10.11) if Mon Mome is top on OR161 of 11.10 and have said this from the beginning this year.
Now who fits the keys stats as listed above (Showlad’s post) best in this grouping? Any names anyone so that we can compare, contrast and review? CI is one key name obviously.
Like TC says the OR 140′s runners are so much better this year and this is the group I will mainly concentrate on while not excluding other possabilities at the same time (not easy as the list can get too long) – I dont want to get caught out like last year when I excluded anything above OR146 (at Christmas) so missed the winner on OR 148!!
#99
January 25th, 2010 23:40
I notice Mon Mome is no longer rated 161 but is rated 156 instead. Is this significant for the GN?
#100
January 25th, 2010 23:45
To showlad with reference to or 135+ i think only once had it been broken. Stat can only go back afar as Mr Frisk. Will post details asap. Reasons I told everyone before they used a different basis pre 1990.
#101
January 25th, 2010 23:48
Cheers Neil. Be great when we have frequency levels for all stats.
#102
January 25th, 2010 23:50
I would rate the 145 to 154 bunch as quite strong:
Miko De Beauchene
Gone To Lunch
Possol
Snowy Morning
Big Fella Thanks
Cane Brake
Tricky Trickster
Niche Market
State Of Play
Casey Jones
Character Building
Backstage
Comply Or Die
Vic Venturi
My Will
Dream Alliance
Can’t Buy Time
King Johns Castle
Dear Villez
Royal County Star
War Of Attrition
Would be shocked if the winner wasn’t in that list – although maybe Church Island of the lower weighted horses (good trends and Busted etc very positive – but have my doubts about his ability to actually win a decent race these days – only win in past 17 chases was in a Class 2 Veteran’s race – surely not enough)
Still depends on handicapper and top weight on the day
#103
January 25th, 2010 23:58
News on that Or stat it was bobbyjo who was given a rating of 128 when weight were announced but was forced to run a stone over weight. So his rating would show up as 142. Clearly an exception to the rule.
#104
January 26th, 2010 00:06
Bobbyjo broke another stat. Last irish winner before him was L’Escargot in 75. Baking any irish runners in this period would not have got you the winner, yet despite this never fully ruled out irish horses. Same could happen for french bred or it could be another century before a french bred wins again.
#105
January 26th, 2010 00:08
Mistype meant backing not baking which is just plain silly.
#106
January 26th, 2010 00:43
Any news on Dear Villez – nothing since being PU in Scots National 9 months ago?
#107
January 26th, 2010 00:57
So that was what was behind the Irish drought Neil! They were BAKING those poor animals alive!! Here’s me thinking it was just the French that were into horse meat lol
Those ravenous Liverpudlians…
#108
January 26th, 2010 01:17
Showlad to use a quote from a comedian of my time. “Oh, you are awful, but I like you. “
#109
January 26th, 2010 03:11
Catching up on a few back messages. Big news from Ewok is right, Mon Mome now rated 156. If Notre Pere doesn’t run that will put weights at (selected)
Dream 11-05
Miko 11-03
Niche 11-02
Church 10-09
Is the rating change an anomoly?
#110
January 26th, 2010 05:30
Phil Smith told Williams after last year’s race that there was no point trying to manipulate Mon Mome’s h’cap rating down, as the horse would be awarded at least 161 for the GN anyway.
#111
January 26th, 2010 08:14
Dream Alliance dropped last night as low as 15 on Betfair but now back to 25. You can still back him at 33/1 with 6 other bookies. He has a 3% share of the current Betfair market on the GN with 5,900. The no.1 seems to be Tricky T. who has just over 7% share with 14,400 but then Black A. has over 6% with 12,500.
#112
January 26th, 2010 11:05
Showlad – howdi – also been wondering about Dear Villez – I had him on my top six way back in October but theres not been sight nor sound of him since… posesses a bit of class and has a 4th in the hennessy to his name but would have liked him to have already been out to think about considering. Maybe hes one to take a price about at ridiculous odds but no runs before end of January would have me worried . The only thing in his favour is he is with team nicholls so anything would be possible
#113
January 26th, 2010 12:01
so when Nicholls said other day he bought TT with one race in mind, surely he’s not refering to the GN! or maybe he is, has a weird approach to this race doesn’t he! or as some people think a lack of respect for what it takes to make a national horse
#114
January 26th, 2010 12:12
I know Arbor Supreme ran a very low key race in the Thyestes Chase last week but i keep reading quotes from Willie Mullins saying he is a much better horse on good ground. This being so why have 6 out of his last 7 runs been on soft/heavy ground?? Is Mullins pulling a fast one or is it just that there aren’t many alternative races for him to run in in Ireland?? I was thinking if Arbor did get in and needed good ground i’d have the going covered having backed Dream Alliance who needs it to come up soft.
#115
January 26th, 2010 13:48
I still don’t understand why anyone would move a horse from NTD to PN with a view to winning the National [and I find PN's attitiude to the race bordering on the obscene!]. Maybe Tricky Trickster will win by a country mile [I have to admit Big Fella Thanks surprised me last year] but he seems way too young for a start. I don’t understand why trainers ignore factors like that. Must re watch Tricky Trickster at Cheltenham as I can’t remember much about the race. I did back him, but only because he was tipped on another forum. PN’s horses have little value, either, even when it comes to the National.
#116
January 26th, 2010 13:49
RE. SKYBETCHASE
Another stat: Placed in last three races 10/10
Mill Side (25/1 – 33/1 with Betfair) ticks all my boxes, followed by Zitenka (16/1 – 25/1 with Betfair).
#117
January 26th, 2010 14:30
Maureen,
In answer to your question on TT, last year he was owned by the Million In Mind Partnership who’s policy is to sell their horses every season (I think) and then buy new ones. They did qute well to cash in and sell the horse for something like 320,000gns!! I’m sure NTD would have wanted to keep the horse but didn’t have an owner with pockets as deep as Chris Giles who has his horses with Paul Nicholls.
Agree about your point regarding Nicholls and his National horses. Very poor value at the current prices.
#118
January 26th, 2010 16:22
Less than a week to go until Grand National 2010 entries close (Midday on February 2nd). So next week we should be left with a list of 150 or so horses to go over with a fine tooth comb! Could be there are a few we’ve missed altogether, or could be some of our ‘Top 25′ don’t get an entry…
As I recall from previous years, we had quite a wait between the official closing date, and the announcement of the entrants (1 or 2 days maybe) – has anyone got detail on when the announcement will be made (didn’t somebody email Aintree last year?!)
Obviously the picture won’t be complete until the weights, two weeks later (Feb 16) but at least will help to focus the bulk of research.
So until next week, some food for thought – 2007: Silver Birch, 2008: Comply or Die, 2009: Mon Mome; all horses returning to top class form in or shortly before the Grand National, having previously fallen from more illustrious heights. Perhaps the trend of returning ‘champions’ will continue in 2010 with the likes of:
Dream Alliance
My Will
Miko de Beauchene
Trabolgan
State of Play
Knowhere
#119
January 26th, 2010 16:45
Unless I am going to strat all my research from square one (which I am not) I am going to presume that Phil Smith will keep is word and allot Mon Mome OR 161 at least (why would he change it?).
#120
January 26th, 2010 16:49
GAMO, maybe even war of attrition.
#121
January 26th, 2010 17:33
#
crisp 73 says:
April 22, 2009 at 12:39 PM
5 high % trends for April 30th 2009 for GN 2010;
1. 18/19 had ran in at least 7 chases-
Lord Gyllene odd one out.
2. 17/19 won at 24f or more.
Lord Gyllene,Red Marauder are odd ones out.
3. 17/19 had recorded a left handed RPR 141.
Lord Gyllene, Numbersixvalverde odd ones out.
4. 17/19 won 3 chases.
Lord Gyllene, Hedgehunter odd ones out.
5. 15/16 won a C1/C2 chase worth 17k or more.
Lord Gyllene is the odd won out.
#
crisp 73 says:
April 22, 2009 at 1:03 PM
6. 16/16 GN winners has a top3 in a C1 chase a year before their National win.
#
Pablo says:
April 22, 2009 at 1:33 PM
Crisp – good stats
What all your exceptions had was a strike rate of 70%+ by end of April season before – so exceptions must have good strike rate.
#122
January 26th, 2010 17:51
Gammers just backing this bunch of old warriors, can’t go far wrong ey!
I would be tempted to keep previous winners in too! Comply hasn’t moved one inch from 25-1, the worry is obviously Phil may feel like attaching a ball and chain aswell this year! even tho 11st6 was more than sufficient and the mid weighted lot were rubbish,
Does he want horses that can jump and compete to regularly collapse afterwards! not good publicity so not good for sport.
He told Venetia straight after GN, MM would be treated off OR161 come what may!!! is this not bizarre!? typical english, reasonable one minute, then overeacting the next. Can’t remember this kind of statement of intent for a national horse before!?
He should (be made to) reassess last year as we have and see that the mid weighted bunch were mediocre, others had too much weight to win, and that MM had three attempts and only won once!
#123
January 26th, 2010 18:02
I think 161 would be a little high for Mon Mome in comparison to previous years (no way should he be rated above Hedgehunter in his 3rd national) and i hope he does review the national again, as it has turned out to be quite poor. CoD raised 15lb from the previous year and comes 2nd!! Part of the reason i don’t think anything can win from last year
Absolutely loving the way the market is shaping up. PN bound to have another great Cheltenham and BFT and TT likely to go off 1st and 2nd fave, creating a lot of value on some horses on the day
#124
January 26th, 2010 18:23
I think I am allowed to change my mind – and I have.
Strike rate depends on what races the horse runs in.
Strike rates in Class 1 races
Hedgehunter: 5 runs 60%
Numbersixvalverde: 7 runs 42%
Silver Birch: 3 runs 33% (or 50% if include Becher which is now a Class 1)
COD: 8 runs 25%
Mon Mome: 14 runs 29%
So if we use strike rate we are looking for a horse that has a very high strike rate outside Class 1 company.
Yet key race performances are all in Class 1 races…
The Gold Cup & RSA chase are Class 1 events…
The Racing Post Trophy, Bobbyjo and Thyestes too…
For me it’s a question of is the horse handicapped well enough on its best form?
Has it performed well in handicap company before? Is it a reliable enough jumper?
Has it had a good preparation?
Does it have a good chance of staying?
Has it been aimed at the race?
#125
January 26th, 2010 18:25
Just not a fan of career chase or even worse career strike rate
#126
January 26th, 2010 18:54
Pablo, Up to now I couldn’t find any flaws with Dream Alliance. So the last post was only pointing to a small flaw with Dream Alliance and nothing else.
re- 2 chase wins or 70% s/r.
#127
January 26th, 2010 18:58
That should be 2 chase wins and 70% s/r.
#128
January 26th, 2010 19:23
Miinnehoma – no offence taken – just wanted to explain why I have changed tack
#129
January 26th, 2010 20:49
Going back over the OR 140′s who meet the 30/30 stat and preferably a 45% chase strike rate.
Vic Venturi any views out there please? For or against.
#130
January 26th, 2010 20:55
About previous winners with the exception of Mr Frisk who won 4 races after national, most have won no more than 2 races and most of them are poorer class. Could running the National mean they have to run a career best.
#131
January 26th, 2010 21:42
There have been so many changes over the past few years. Not all that long ago nearly all the horses seemed to be running from out of the handicap. It didn’t take much expertise to work out that only a few horses could win it, and once the going was established you could narrow it down even more [eg Earth Summit]. Then there were the ‘Irish’ years, when said horses slipped into the handicap under cover of running in unsuitable races/hurdle races. Handicapper seems to have got them covered now. So the latest difference [and one that I think is having quite an effect] is this compression of the handicap to encourage better horses to run. This possibly means that Niche Market and Dream Alliance may have been given too much weight to win, but perhaps horses such as Notre Pere may be good to back for a place. [Please excuse me for thinking out loud here!]. Can’t wait to see which horses are definately down to run.
#132
January 26th, 2010 22:11
Best RPR prior to win; Winning RPR; Difference; Winning OR; Winning RPR-OR; Horse
160; 160; 0; 148; 12; Seagram
158; 158; 0; 153; 5; Party Politics
160; 150; -10; 153; -3; Miinnehoma
163; 154; -9; 155; -1; Royal Athlete
170; 156; -14; 152; 4; Rough Quest
157; 161; 4; 149; 12; Lord Gyllene
157; 161; 4; 147; 14; Earth Summit
153; 156; 3; 142; 14; Bobbyjo
164; 156; -8; 139; 17; Papillon
152; 145; -7; 140; 5; Red Marauder
144; 148; 4; 136; 12; Bindaree
148; 162; 14; 139; 23; Monty’s Pass
154; 154; 0; 139; 15; Amberleigh House
156; 166; 10; 144; 22; Hedgehunter
146; 154; 8; 138; 16; Numbersixvalverde
150; 150; 0; 138; 12; Silver Birch
155; 158; 3; 139; 19; Comply Or Die
155; 166; 11; 148; 18; Mon Mome
#133
January 26th, 2010 22:15
indeed maureen, likewise Neil, we’ve always known, its a stat basically! ha ha.. yet more reason to give previous winners a break mr.handicapper gggggrrrrrrrrrrr!!!
#134
January 26th, 2010 22:29
None of those aged 11 or above bettered their previous best RPR in the GN
Best RPR prior to win; Winning RPR; Difference; Winning OR; Winning RPR-OR; Horse; Age
160; 160; 0; 148; 12; Seagram; 11
158; 158; 0; 153; 5; Party Politics; 8
160; 150; -10; 153; -3; Miinnehoma; 11
163; 154; -9; 155; -1; Royal Athlete; 11
170; 156; -14; 152; 4; Rough Quest; 10
157; 161; 4; 149; 12; Lord Gyllene; 9
157; 161; 4; 147; 14; Earth Summit; 10
153; 156; 3; 142; 14; Bobbyjo; 9
164; 156; -8; 139; 17; Papillon; 9
152; 145; -7; 140; 5; Red Marauder; 11
144; 148; 4; 136; 12; Bindaree; 8
148; 162; 14; 139; 23; Monty’s Pass; 10
154; 154; 0; 139; 15; Amberleigh House; 12
156; 166; 10; 144; 22; Hedgehunter; 9
146; 154; 8; 138; 16; Numbersixvalverde; 10
150; 150; 0; 138; 12; Silver Birch; 10
155; 158; 3; 139; 19; Comply Or Die; 9
155; 166; 11; 148; 18; Mon Mome; 9
#135
January 27th, 2010 00:28
Maureen the nothing to forgive, this forum is design for your thought to be aired. Without an objective view we cannot move forward.
I too remember the old days when a majority of runners would be cut with the simple rule of looking in the handicap proper (ie nothing in the long handicap.)With the exception of years like Fonavon this usually worked.
I mentioned that no previous winner had won more than twice recently but also to counter this arguement Comply Or Die using RPR as a gauge ran a better race in second than he did when he won. Also if something happened to Mon Mome on route (we all see archive footage of Devon Loch) we would be celebriting a dual Grand National winner by now.
#136
January 27th, 2010 03:16
Vic Venturi
Positives
Dosage figures look good. Likes Aintree.
Negatives
OR 154 so may carry 11-04ish. Beaten 35L in Irish National last year – now 10lb higher. Unproven at current weight. Only 1 win at 24f or more.
Talking previous winners, the only one that interests me is COD. Still only 25 lifetime races – think he’ll run another big race.
Can’t shake off that horse Trabolgan either. Won the Hessessy in 2005 off 11-12 – now weighted 1 stone lighter. Any news/views?
#137
January 27th, 2010 08:50
Might have mentioned it before but 15/16 GN winners had an OR on raceday the same or higher than their previous chase win, Bindaree was the odd one out.
#138
January 27th, 2010 09:50
Crisp – my figures don’t agree – I make it that Royal Athlete, Earth Summit, Papillon & Bindaree all won a chase off a higher OR than their GN-winning mark
9/18 had OR on the day below their highest ever chase rating – in the majority of cases after injury and some respite from the handicapper (Miinnehoma, Royal Athlete, Earth Summit, Red Marauder, Silver Birch & Comply Or Die – Seagram was still largely climbing the ratings but his OR 154 was running out of the handicap in Desert Orchid’s Racing Post Trophy win) – the other two Papillon (7 runs without a top 3 finish in chases) & Bindaree (7 runs with 2 top 3 finishes) were dropped a few lbs by the handicapper
The remaining 9 had all won a race within the past year (including Irish National) – Rough Quest, Lord Gyllene, Bobbyjo, Monty’s Pass, Hedgehunter, Numbersixvalverde, Mon Mome or had secured at least one key race position during their winning season – Party Politics (Hennessy & Welsh), Amberleigh House (Becher)
Highest OR ever; Highest winning OR; OR on the day; Horse
154; 146; 148; Seagram
153; 149; 153; Party Politics
157; 152; 153; Miinnehoma
163; 161; 155; Royal Athlete
151; 151; 152; Rough Quest
148; 139; 149; Lord Gyllene
157; 157; 147; Earth Summit
129; 122; 142; Bobbyjo
145; 140; 139; Papillon
143; 135; 140; Red Marauder
140; 137; 136; Bindaree
137; 130; 139; Monty’s Pass
139; 131; 139; Amberleigh House
142; 142; 144; Hedgehunter
135; 126; 138; Numbersixvalverde
142; 132; 138; Silver Birch
148; 139; 139; Comply Or Die
148; 140; 148; Mon Mome
#139
January 27th, 2010 10:04
Crisp – I misinterpreted your statement but still think that Royal Athlete & Papillon would make your stat 13/16
#140
January 27th, 2010 11:03
Sorry for mistake, hmm, could still be interesting, 12/14 is quite strong, wouldn’t hesitate to use that for any other chase though we do have some strong stats to work with. Just noticed from your list Pablo that only Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde hadn’t won a chase off OR130 or higher.
Actually looking at your latest lists Pablo every winner on it had either won a chase off OR135 or higher or else had an RPR>OR on raceday of 8 or more.
#141
January 27th, 2010 11:07
Last post could be a last chase win OR137 or higher or RPR>OR on raceday of 8 or more.
#142
January 27th, 2010 11:11
You could go up to OR139 or …!
#143
January 27th, 2010 13:21
18/18 GN winners won a chase off, OR140 or higher or RPR>OR 8 or more on raceday. Makes you think doesn’t it.
#144
January 27th, 2010 19:56
I’m quite keen on One Cool Cookie. Do you think trainer will ever enter him in the English version?
#145
January 27th, 2010 20:25
One Cool Cookie entered at Thurles on Thursday along with Snowy Morning (how many runs!)
Hasn’t run left-handed since Feb 2007 when 3rd to Mister Top Notch in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown (21 starts)
Could be an outrageous plot but trainer did say last April that Offshore Account (with a full season under his belt – but hopelessy out of form) and Oodachee (2nd in Topham – but not seen out since August) would be his runners
You never know though…
#146
January 28th, 2010 12:34
Wow – no posts today, that must be a first!
Mon Mome is now rated 153 – are we confident he will still run off 161 in the GN? I’m getting a little nervous that my assumptions will be proved wrong. We can only wait until weight day I suppose?
#147
January 28th, 2010 13:18
Snowy Morning and One Cool Cookie in action in the 3.25 at Thurles. A win for Snowy Morning would surely give him too much weight in April. Or can The Fonze record another victory giving the Kerry National yet another form boost after Anothercoppercoast’s victory at the weekend
#148
January 28th, 2010 13:54
RE. SKYBET CHASE 30.01.10.
I’ve whittled it down to Mill Side (but who is the reserve) and Zitenka. Anyone else taken an interest in this race?
#149
January 28th, 2010 15:08
TC – you’ll be pleased to know that GN no-hoper, I mean hopeful, CI is due to run over hurdles next Wednesday 3rd at Down Royal
Backstage & Oodachee are having a spin over hurdles on the same card too
#150
January 28th, 2010 16:04
Shoul be a nice little pipe-opener for the no-hoper before he makes the most of his lenient English handicap mark
Which major race did Bindaree win before landing the national?
#151
January 28th, 2010 16:18
Indeed. A few months ago I was a bit worried that Hourigan was overdoing it with CA as he had a very busy late summer and autumn. However, he’s not run since 31st October so has a 3 month rest and a few spins over hurdles should put him spot on for the big day.
#152
January 28th, 2010 16:21
The more I look at it CI will, weight permitting, very likely make it into my top 3 on trends so I might have to have a decent bet on him – system designed to take subjectivity out of the equation – have to back top 3 in system whatever they may be!
#153
January 28th, 2010 16:31
Skybet Chase this weekend – I’ve taken Kicks for Free to reverse the Sandown form with Seven is my Number (weighted to do so). Admittedly KfF is carrying more weight than most recent winners of the race, but gut feeling and a little analysis suggest the 16/1 available is generous.
But I’d love Trabolgan to perform strongly and be right in the National frame!
#154
January 28th, 2010 16:37
I’d expect Khatchaturian to be reversing the form with SIMN with a very low weight in the Skybet. A lot of horses in there needing wins to enter the national picture, so should be a great race. Won’t be getting involved with the race though, as i’ll be at Chelters.
#155
January 28th, 2010 18:57
I must admit I find picking winners very hard in January & February – normally keep bets to a minimum – November & December better as are March & April
One I like the look of is Nenuphar Collonges – King’s team in much better form now than it was around Hennessy time
#156
January 28th, 2010 19:30
Said in the Liverpool echo that Our Vic might get an entry for the National.
#157
January 28th, 2010 23:21
First of all must apologise for format of this message having problems with main computer. Gordon Elliot Backstage & Silver Birch are reviewed in the trainers quotes.
#158
January 28th, 2010 23:34
Message part 2. Backstage age 8. He won 4 ptp & did well for us at perth in the summer, winning a handicap chase over 3 miles & a novice hurdle over 3 miles 1 furlong. He has a mark in the mid 140′s which hopefully would get him in. I think he is the ideal type for the race as he jumps beautifully & staying is his forte. He will have 1 or 2 runs over hurdles when the ground dries up as I don’t want to mess up his handicap mark. Hopefully we can get him out in early March.
#159
January 28th, 2010 23:50
Message part 3. Silver Birch age 13. What can I say about him? He is the horse that put me on the map when winning the Grand National & he will always be a pet around here. However, even at the advanced age of 13, he still retains ability. Last season to Garde Champetre in the La Touche Cup. Since then he was carried out at Cheltenham last month in the cross county chase. He is in great form at home & we will stick to the same route for the time being. He will go back to Punchestown for the La Touche Cup in the spring & that will probably be it for him. When he retires he will go to his owner Brian Walsh’s farm in County Kildare, where he will be spoilt rotten. Sounds like no Grand National for SB then, hope he enjoys his retirement.
#160
January 29th, 2010 11:10
Admin, I think Black Apalachi may have missed his chance. He might be a decent e/w shout, but going by the numbers and they seem to be right more often than wrong in this race, he doesn’t appear to consistent enough to win a GN, hence poor strike rate figures.
Systemsman, you asked about Vic Venturi well his case will test the handicapper won’t it? Didn’t I read that the handicapper said he wanted to reward trainers who supported the Aintree races?
Anyway from a numbers point of view VV’s strike rate is going the right way over 50% career win place strike rate, 44% chase win place strike rate, which is considerably better than it was at the start of the season but that is unusual for recent GN winners.There have been one or two near misses with similar stats though in past 15 years such as Encore Un Peu and Royal Auclair. His ’1 year before stats’ aren’t that great either so, personally, I’m thinking perhaps a place at best but what will the handicapper give him?
#161
January 29th, 2010 11:26
Group brainstorm while we wait for the weights.
This will help me in my own “back to basics” review which I am finding harder than I thought (so many runners have something wrong with their profile).
Which two runners fit the winning stats/trends best with OR141 to OR149 (possibly 10.04 to 10.12 if Mon Mome is top weight on OR161- 11.10 – but he may not be ofcourse).
The idea is not to think too hard about this just post your 1 and 2 – its the overall score that is important not just one persons view (its a bit like our top 6 [25]). I will post my 1/2 after a few have joined in. Whos first? (even 5 or 6 posts would give us a clearer picture). I will keep the scores (dont worry this is not the same as the top 6 which is due after the weights are out).
So what have we?
1. ?
2. ?
1, is your top choice, 2 is your second top choice. Horse with the lowest score will the the best selection within this OR range.
Must be OR 141 to OR 149 and fits the stats well. Important not to think about it too much – remember its the overall impression that matters of the group.
#162
January 29th, 2010 11:41
Nigel Twiston Davies has spoken about Beat The Boys in the press and said he’ll get a GN entry. BTB meets lots of stats, good ’1 year before’ stats, 15 chases-6 wins, 10 handicap chase runs-3 wins, C1/C2 17k win, won 24f C1, placed 28f C1, 60% chase win place strike rate, 45% career win place strike rate, won a C1 chase off OR140. Doesn’t seem well handicapped, RPR>OR 2, needs to perform ‘Houdini’ trick on Saturday, not to win but post, say RPR155 or more and lose at least 2lbs off his rating or win big and hope handicapper is watching Dr Zhivago or whatever’s on BBC2!
#163
January 29th, 2010 12:58
Looking at profiles of recent winners and each one from Earth Summit in 1998 onwards had either:
Run in GN or Topham the previous April, or
Run in Irish the previous March/April, or
Been injured the previous March/April and therefore unable to take part at Aintree or Fairyhouse
#164
January 29th, 2010 12:59
Good spot Crisp. Looks like he has taken a hammering on betfair on the back of this news! I guess if you were to bet at this stage at least you know the horse is aiming at The National and you will more than likely get a run for your money. Like you say ticks a few boxes and has some fair form, will need good ground though to show best I feel. 100/1 isn’t the worst price and will be much shorter if lines up in April.
#165
January 29th, 2010 13:04
I wouldn’t touch Beat The Boys with a bargepole.
Form from his last 10 runs reads as follows:
PU,1,3,PU,F,PU,1,PU,1,PU
Far too inconsistent and far too many failures to complete. Not one to be relied on and I agree that his current rating of 149 doesn’t look lenient.
#166
January 29th, 2010 13:22
I admit when I looked at the form line I felt the same The Stayer!! Like I say though, it seems the ground would be key to this ones chances on further inspection. Good/ Good to soft in places would be as soft as he would want. 3 of the pulled up and 1 fall can be accounted for by the ground and the other 2 pulled ups were on good to soft. He does have bits and pieces of form in Soft ground too and in a year when it is hard to find many that fit all the stats, he fits many. Always good to have all ground conditions covered, so I may have a little dabble but would have liked the fancy prices on offer earlier today!!
#167
January 29th, 2010 14:08
Crisp I too am a fan of BTB. Most of his poor runs are accounted by ground, but there is enough of the disappointment factor, to say at the least he is quirky and not reliable. With the biggest % of GN runs being on good, though, that does bode very well for him.
I have posted my like for him previously on this site and he was one of my main ‘silly odds’ uptakes.
So quirky and unreliable yes, but for sure can’t be discounted. It’s a personal choice. COD had many pointers to being unreliable in earlier runs – in his 10 prev runs to his GN win he had 3 PU and 1 fall. Again all down to your own judgement.
My main reason for NOT discounting BTB was he has a crucial element in this snow and ice ravaged season, that hardly ANY have – 2 WINs over 24f, 1 of them a CLASS 1 beating Coe and in both races ‘stayed on well’, ‘stayed on gamely’.
#168
January 29th, 2010 14:30
I see Character Building takes a spin over hurdles at Doncaster on Saturday…
#169
January 29th, 2010 17:48
“Pablo says:
January 29, 2010 at 12:58 PM
Looking at profiles of recent winners and each one from Earth Summit in 1998 onwards had either:
Run in GN or Topham the previous April, or
Run in Irish the previous March/April, or
Been injured the previous March/April and therefore unable to take part at Aintree or Fairyhouse”
Wonderful work Pablo this could be the “golden key” that unlocks the Grand National door for us.
The GN and IN runners last year are obvious but which of our top 25 and or best backed runners were unable to run in the GN or IN due to inury last Mrach/April or took the season off?
I am trying to comply a list of the best qualifiers Pablo’s info (post 13) so this would be useful to know. Anyone know one or two? We can strat with Dream Alliance.
#170
January 29th, 2010 19:02
Beat The Boys was entered last year and wouldn’t have got in off GN rating 136
He’s now 148 – too high for me & doubtful stayer on dosage
#171
January 29th, 2010 19:19
Yes will get in this year if trainer wants the entry.
Doseage to me is a helpful tool, but not all in my book.
There have been poor doseage winners haven’t there? Mon Mome’s doseage was relatively poor wasn’t it?
Also a request to the team – does anyone know Trabolgan’s GN intentions?
#172
January 29th, 2010 19:32
They’re obviously persevering with him with some sort of purpose; no chance of winning a Gold Cup but an owner that would love him to win the National..trainer that I don’t think of as a ‘National’ trainer, though. One that you can’t ignore, isn’t he. Had a bet on Backstage yesterday because I never ignore Gordon Elliot. A very very canny trainer.
#173
January 29th, 2010 19:38
Hi Maureen. So trainer’s gone on record saying he would love Trablogan to win GN, yes?
#174
January 29th, 2010 19:47
Some very interesting comments on Joe Lively today as well .. !
“He ran quite respectably in the Hennessy Gold Cup but he was very disappointing at Cheltenham last time out.”
“All of our horses were running badly at the time, so I think that you can excuse him that run, but they seem to have come through it now.
“He won this race last year and, although he is not getting any younger, I am expecting a decent run from him.
“We left him out of the Gold Cup this year but he will be entered in races like the William Hill Trophy Chase.
“He’s rated 149 now and we will also give him an entry in the Grand National – as long as he doesn’t do anything stupid tomorrow and blow his mark!”
#175
January 29th, 2010 20:08
Showlad: Beat the boys has one 1 out 7 top class races.
Most of his wins has come at class 2 and 3, between 3 miles and 3 miles 2 furlongs on good and good to soft going.
They also occur on left handed galloping tacks.
Apart from Warwick (left handed sharp track) and Kempton (right handed sharp track)
The dosage suggest he has more speed than stamina. Last years winner was dosage weak, this is not the case with BTB his DP is 26 made up of B3, I4, C15, S4, P0, his index is 1.26 no winners since Royal Athlete has won with such an high Index, without being dosage weak, his CD is 0.23 which is similar to Earth Summit’s CD.
Dosage’s is not everything but BTB has had 4 goes from 3 miles 3 furlongs to 4 miles 1 furlong without success, although 4 goes is not a massive amount of data and the could be other facts for his defeats.
#176
January 29th, 2010 20:16
Nothing on record about Trevor Hemmings, but my instinct tells me that if you win a National once you really want to win it again.
#177
January 29th, 2010 21:33
Found this quote re: Trabolgan last year, the last paragraph is eyecatching!
Trabolgan sidelined again with new problem
By Lee Mottershead12.18PM 15 FEB 2009
TROUBLED chaser Trabolgan has suffered the latest setback in a heavily interrupted career after trainer Nicky Henderson revealed that the former starnovice is out for the season due to a breathing problem.
The 2005 RSA Chase and Hennessy Gold Cup winner returned this winter after just over three years on the sidelines, but plans to run him in this season’s John Smith’s Grand National – for which he was as short as 40-1 with Paddy Power – have been abandoned.
RELATED LINKS
» Grand National card
» Grand National betting
Henderson said: “Trabolgan is going to come out of training for a moment. Unfortunately, his airways aren’t working as they should, and I have a nasty feeling that we spent three years mending one thing and with two years of inactivity his larynx has got lazy and it’s affecting him.
“We’ve got to do a wind operation, which is very frustrating. However, we wouldn’t be mending him if we didn’t want to bring him back, so he’s out for the season but will come back and win the 2010 Grand National!”
#178
January 30th, 2010 00:20
Find of the nighht goes to Ewok!! Well done
Thanks Maureen and Neil for info.
SO INTERESTED to see how Trabolgan goes in Skybet tomorrow – it’s tomorrow’s highlight for me. To me a place in tomorrow’s field would make him getting bang on target for Aintree.
Think Gone to Lunch, if taking a liking to the ground, could also run big race and along with Pretty Star and Beat The Boys is great ew value.
Trabolgan may run a blinder…let’s (hope and) see.
#179
January 30th, 2010 00:30
Old Benny
Trabolgan (entered 2009)
Iris De Balme
Over The Creek
Cane Brake (entered 2009)
King Johns Castle (entered 2009)
were the injured ones that I can think of
#180
January 30th, 2010 00:32
Plus of course Dream Alliance as Systemsman said
#181
January 30th, 2010 00:43
My concerns for Trabolgan are his rating of 137 – will it be enough? – and also his age (12) – with only one run under his belt so far will he be race fit enough?
But he’s a former RSA and Hennessy winner (off 11’12) – and beating COD twice – so has the class
#182
January 30th, 2010 00:48
Exactly Pablo – a true run with ALL to win and NOTHING to lose tomorrow. Let’s all wish the injury prone wonder horse well
Very interesting…
#183
January 30th, 2010 09:35
Trabolgan is very interesting and would need to win or place today to get in to the National – he’s rated 138, bottom weight last year was 139 so if he were to run badly and get dropped a few lbs he would stand very little chance of getting a run at Aintree. On that basis you would have to assume that he’s been prepared to run a big race today. 12/1 could be tempting.
#184
January 30th, 2010 11:30
Pablo – thanks for that list.
Trabogan – this years “dark horse” (like Darkness last year)- got the class and cant be ignored but needs that place to up his OR a bit then he would be in many people’s lists i think. Without that place today I dont think will worry to much- with it and OR 141 to 148 he will look very good.
#185
January 30th, 2010 12:10
This is beginning to be a race against time, now, to get runs into a lot of horses. Perhaps an advantage to the Irish horses?
#186
January 30th, 2010 12:26
Gutted to lose Doncaster today. Trabolgan, Iris de Balme, Possol, Character Building were all due to run
#187
January 30th, 2010 12:42
Yes, it’s really gutting to lose these meetings so close to Cheltenham and Aintree. With the National weights out in just a few weeks it looks like Trabolgan might not have time to get his rating up to guarantee a run.
#188
January 30th, 2010 13:14
Trying to get to the bottom of this chase strike-rate thing.
Proportion of overall chase runs in non-Class 1 non-Novice events; Overall s/r; S/r outside Class 1 (exc Novice events); S/r in Class 1 events (exc Novice); Horse
64%; 50%; 56%; 40%; Mr Frisk
71%; 75%; 90%; 38%; Seagram
71%; 57%; 60%; 50%; Party Politics
56%; 78%; 80%; 75%; Miinnehoma
69%; 50%; 64%; 20%; Royal Athlete
74%; 70%; 71%; 67%; Rough Quest
90%; 90%; 89%; 100%; Lord Gyllene
60%; 52%; 60%; 40%; Earth Summit
53%; 47%; 44%; 50%; Bobbyjo
38%; 42%; 56%; 33%; Papillon
46%; 46%; 83%; 14%; Red Marauder
60%; 53%; 67%; 33%; Bindaree
76%; 66%; 68%; 60%; Monty’s Pass
81%; 46%; 43%; 57%; Amberleigh House
45%; 73%; 80%; 67%; Hedgehunter
60%; 60%; 67%; 50%; Numbersixvalverde
77%; 62%; 70%; 33%; Silver Birch
64%; 50%; 78%; 0%; Comply Or Die
42%; 50%; 80%; 29%; Mon Mome
The second column is the one that is commonly used on here. However due to the variability of performances in column 4 (Class 1 races outside Novice events) the overall strike rate is determined to a large extent by a) how many Class 1 races a horse has run in and b) its strike-rate in those races.
For example Papillon ran outside Class 1 company in only 38% of his races (column 1) but his strike-rate in Class 1 races is only 33% so his overall chase s/r is the lowest of any winner – yet his s/r in Class 1 races was better or equal to that of the past 3 winners.
Bobbyjo and Amberleigh House were better in Class 1 races than other races (maybe also because they ran in several in Ireland off low weights).
For me the overall s/r is potentially misleading and I won’t be using it.
#189
January 30th, 2010 13:21
Quite interesting how poorly some of the winners’ records have been in Class 1 handicaps prior to the race – I suppose if they had been too good the horses would have had to carry too much weight.
Mind you all of those that had run in 10 or more Class 1 handicaps had won at least one of them.
COD’s record was pretty shabby (except Hennessy 4th).
Mr Frisk; 3,5,P,3,4
Seagram; U,9,P,3,2,9,9,1
Party Politics; 2,2,5
Miinnehoma; 2,2,3
Royal Athlete; 4,F,F,6
Rough Quest; F,1,2,F,1
Lord Gyllene; 2
Earth Summit; 1,2,1,P,5,P,5,1,6,5
Bobbyjo; 1,8,2,1,8,13,5
Papillon; 1,4,11,2,2,6,5,1,10,8
Red Marauder; 1,6,F,10,4,5,5
Bindaree; 7,5,3,6,7
Monty’s Pass; 2,3,P,6,2,3,5,6,1,3
Amberleigh House; 2,BD,1,15,3
Hedgehunter; 1,4,3,1,F
Numbersixvalverde; 1,1,BD,4
Silver Birch; 1,1,P,F
Comply Or Die; P,6,4,P,P
Mon Mome; U,2,2,4,3,4,P,6,10,9,1,8,7,8
#190
January 30th, 2010 14:06
Gutted about Donny. Was particularly keen to see Iris de Balme and Character Building get a run in
Hoping for a good run from Joe Lively. Watch his price drop if he gets 2nd or 3rd. If he wins, his mark may be too high for Aintree
#191
January 30th, 2010 14:28
Anyone watch the utoxetter 1.55 until the last fence only three horses remiained. I was on Power shared but he fell at the last. Will the bookie still pay out. Its just that i have him in an ew accumulator. I also had faller insurance but would be better if he got placed.
#192
January 30th, 2010 15:05
Is it possible that the handicapper could help a class animal like Trabolgan into the race? he made sure that the butler got a big hand up last year! and has tried to encourage class horses at the top end run with lower weights. Considering his old form, time off with injury, recent comeback and unluckiness not to get a run here, I would consider helping him in if it were my job.
#193
January 30th, 2010 15:09
Trabolgan is rated 137 – i think that may be too low. Maybe Henderson can get a run into him before the weights are announced and all our stressing will be unnecessary.
A perfect run from Joe Lively just now? Staying on well at the death to close the gap on carruthers in 2nd. I dont think the handicapper can raise him for that?
#194
January 30th, 2010 15:17
Yes, glad i topped up on Joe Lively before the off. If he gets put up, it would surely be a pound or 2 at most. I would hope not though, 3rd out of 7 with one faller.
#195
January 30th, 2010 15:28
I thought that was a perfect outing for Joe Lively – staying on up the hill against decent horses and hopefully the most he would be raised if at all is 1 or 2 lbs… Im almost certain as well this horse has a very high trends profile against the 20 trends highlighted by systems man . he’ll prob have one more run at cheltenham and lets hope he goes for the nat . a great sporting outsider
#196
January 30th, 2010 15:40
Thought Joe Lively ran quite well but he ran in snatches (can get away with that in a small field but not in National) and this was at his favourite course over his favourite distance in ground conditions that suit. Ollie Magern (12) is better at Wetherby on faster ground, Knowhere (12) has gone at the game and Madison prefers a flat track.
I’m not sure that the form is all that and Taranis (although a great run after all his problems) was heavily favoured by the conditions of the race – getting 10lb from Joe yet rated higher.
For me Joe still needs to prove his form in a handicap not a small field conditions race.
#197
January 30th, 2010 15:53
…plus the dreaded Strong Gale as damsire
#198
January 30th, 2010 15:56
yes I never thought Joe, from his performances could stay extreme distance. Not one for me.
#199
January 30th, 2010 15:59
Considering the quality if the 2 horses in front of him, i’d say the form is decent enough and he now looks well treated off 149. He was giving Taranis 10lb’s and Carruthers 6 lb’s and was only beaten 6 lengths and 1 3/4 lengths. He was closing on carruthers at the end too. Considering the regard those 2 are held i’d say the form looks pretty solid. We know he acts in big fields and this to me signalled a return to form. Is he now a trends fit?
Anything in triple figures looks worth taking to me, especially as we now know he will get an entry.
#200
January 30th, 2010 16:01
yes, i’d agree stamina at the National distance is a concern. Noted as staying on over 3m 4f last season offers some hope though. Maybe JL will be one for the place market ultimately.
#201
January 30th, 2010 16:03
I appreciate the concerns. However, at the current price of 150 there could be a lot worse
#202
January 30th, 2010 16:11
Carruthers has run below par both times before at Cheltenham & I still don’t think he’s as good as some seem desperate to want him to be – he’s all big-margin chase victories in 4 or 5 runner fields on heavy ground.
But where would we be if we all agreed on the form?
#203
January 30th, 2010 16:14
It is his distance for sure Ewok no doubt and at the price better than most, but theres a whole bunch that get upto 3m 4f, but its that extra, its a bigger problem than usual?! think it could come down to travelling speed if one of these doubtful stayers wins. Jumping a bonus for Joe too.
How do we gauge NM and BFT previous meetings with Carruthers performance today? definately Carruthers best cheltenham performance. Is it neither here nor there?
#204
January 30th, 2010 17:13
he totally smashed it with NM and BFT before, I’d agree Carruthers not that great, is it not worrying how far he beat these two before? he did it twice to NM! nearly all 25s gone with bookies today, seems they’ve read it as a positive!!?! betfair hasn’t
#205
January 30th, 2010 18:50
Fantastic days racing at Cheltenham, always helps having NTD quite local!!
Looks as if The Sawyer may just be creeping himself into the GN picture
How many horses from the Argento are likely to head to Aintree?
Carruthers – Just short of the top graded races at the moment, might be a little more to come though. Not sure why there are doubts about him in a larger field as he’s a bold front runner who jumps very well, majority of the time. Potentially a national candidate 2011-2012
Joe Lively – I have the stamina/strong gale doubts, but now on a nice mark. Looks as if he’ll head to Aintree this year
Madison du Berlais – An attempt to drop his mark a little further today as he hates Cheltenham?
Ollie Magern – Where does this one fall on the stats apart from s/r of which i’m not a fan? while since he won i think is the main stat but think he’s heading to Aintree again
Inchidaly Rock – Grandsire is Busted like so many recent national winners and should play a big part in the NH chase at the festival. Shame he’s trained by PN otherwise he could have a good chance in the national in 2011/2012
But a great performance from Taranis today to beat all these after 2 years off the track!
#206
January 31st, 2010 13:31
Can Parson’s Pistol deliver today at the GN trial 3m 4 f at Punchestown..? Somebody’s gotta deliver soon lol..
#207
January 31st, 2010 13:35
Hi everyone. Just wondered what Hello buds likely weight will be. Anyone want to make a guess what it will be around?
#208
January 31st, 2010 14:00
Hi Pablo and all, Good Sunday Afternoon!
Pablo, could you please outline Cane Brake’s case for the GN, if you will please, I know you hold him in very very high regard. I see the merit, it’s the unproven stamina seems to be a possible issue for me (as well as the poorish recent form).
#209
January 31st, 2010 14:09
Which horses meet the trends so far. Is there a link to the page of the shortlist?
#210
January 31st, 2010 14:47
Showlad
CB was a very good handicapper a few years ago and came 5th in the Gold Cup picking up really well in the closing stages before storming up the hill on G/S (RPR 161 in handicap & Gold Cup).
His DI is 1.00 (same as Monty’s Pass & Amberleigh House) and his CD is 0.19 (lower than Earth Summit). He’s on the fringes on dosage but by no means a non-stayer on paper.
He’s rated 145 in Ireland so if he’s anything around 150 in GN I think it could be argued that he’s quite well handicapped on old form.
He hasn’t run in a handicap since PU in Irish National 3 years ago (off 159 so no chance), since when, between injuries, he has been campaigned exclusively in Grade 1s in chases.
Tom Taaffe said earlier in the season that he’s back & fit and that the GN is the plan for him this season. Taaffe has only had him for 11 starts – 4 Grade 1s, 4 handicap chases (2 wins & a second, plus PU) and 3 runs over hurdles.
I just think that dropped back to his proper level he’s potentially very interesting and that >100/1 presents value, especially if OR 151 or less in GN and if he shows something over fences in the next 6 weeks (plus I’m encouraged that he’s not in the Gold Cup this year).
#211
January 31st, 2010 14:59
Oh well..poor run from Parson’s Pistol – with the weather, fixture cancellations and virtually ALL of these guns brimming with promise that have failed to fire (crikey can’t even get their OR up to get in the blinkin race in the first place!!).
THE GAP IS EVER WIDER WITH THE ‘A LIST’ BREAKING FURTHER AND FURTHER AWAY.
My prediction without a shadow of a doubt is that only 1 or 2 hotties (it could have been a dozen or more) will break through to forge forward and stake their claim alongside the A Listers and this will undoubtedly come at Cheltenham or maybe too a pre-Chelts race, Blue Square Gold Cup or if Skybet rescheduled etc.
VERY VERY interesting!
#212
January 31st, 2010 15:00
Thanks for that Pablo. If him or Arbor fire again before GN day they will defo be a top consideration.
#213
January 31st, 2010 15:06
I make it that only Lord Gyllene of all the winners since 1990 needed to win a race after Xmas to get into the GN field – and he was a bit of a freak
Maybe the horses that need to win after Xmas to get in the race either aren’t good enough or ready enough to win?
#214
January 31st, 2010 17:32
Showlad who are in the “A list” now as there are various opinions about?
I agree that the best runners have been seen other than what happens at Cheltenham (possibly one runner at most).
I looking at this years Henesssay (a top notch race this year), Welsh National and Irish National plus the odd one or two in last years GN as the key buts its still a bloody big list!!
#215
January 31st, 2010 17:43
What about the Scottish National?
#216
January 31st, 2010 18:51
Hennessy was good this year but we have seen Dream Alliance win the Welsh in 2009 off his Hennessy 2nd mark in 2007 (OR = 142)
Air Force One was 2nd in 2008 off 153 and has been injured this season (OR=158). Say the handicapper drops him to 153 – would that make him on a good mark (certainly some on Betfair seem to think so)?
Obviously needs a few runs under his belt – think he’s out over hurdles this week.
#217
January 31st, 2010 19:02
AFO also in Miko’s Haydock race and has a GC entry too…
#218
January 31st, 2010 19:05
Mind you his rating is still 158 despite being beaten 40L, 69L, 40L and P in his last 4 races
#219
January 31st, 2010 19:59
Systemsman, I can’t ignore you, you’re our anchor man, our David Coleman. My two at this moment OR141-OR149 are Gone To Lunch and Erics Charm. Why?
I like the ‘top 5 Hennessy etc’ stat, I like number of handicap chase runs and wins stat, I like career and chase win place strike rates and I like chase wins/chase win strike rate.
My pre-weights list is now;
Madison Du Berlais, Notre Pere, Mon Mome, Air Force One, Halcon Genelardais, Comply Or Die, Dream Alliance, My Will, Gone To Lunch, Character Building, Erics Charm, Parsons Legacy, Trabolgan.
From Madison to Halcon we have got weight and plenty of it. Comply, Dream and Will are dependent on top weight. I’m not sure Parsons and Trabolgan would make the cut. Character Building has the Accordion connection and there seems to be a consensus about stamina worries due to that.
So Lunch and Eric. I wonder if connections of Lunch would really pass up a chance to line up at Aintree with an OR148. His 2nd at Ayr, 33f, was off 148 and nearly got to Hello Bud giving him 15lbs. So to Eric! 509/1 on betfair! Will he get an entry? He’s 12 but just won 30f C2 chase by 19 lengths, OR135, may be hist best ever performance. Won at 30f, placed twice more at 30f. Dosage inconclusive. Good career/chase win place strike rates, chase win strike rate, 2nd in C1 chase 30f, won C1/C2 21k chase, 18 handicap chases- 3 wins, Well, I’ve been bludgeoned with the merit of the performances of Niche Market. So I’ve looked at them. Ascot, December 08, 24f, and Eric gives Niche 16lbs and gets beaten a shade under 19 lengths off 143. Eric has now reached again his best ever OR of 143. Crumbs of comfort. Has not performed left handed but he’s got an entry for Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock.
Away from the ‘top5 Hennessy etc’ stat, I like Possol, Snowy Morning, Nenuphar Collonges, Arbor Supreme, Lacdoudal.
#220
January 31st, 2010 20:50
Still a fair way to go…
OR 141-149 (some of the Irish ones might be rated higher, plus maybe SOP)
Miko De Beauchene
Gone To Lunch
Snowy Morning
Cane Brake
Niche Market
State Of Play
Church Island
Arbor Supreme
Can’t Buy Time
Royal County Star
OR 150+
Casey Jones
Comply Or Die
Vic Venturi
My Will
Dream Alliance
War Of Attrition
Madison Du Berlais
#221
January 31st, 2010 21:28
There seems to be a lot riding on the Haydock race
Yet only 3 winners have ever run in the race according to RP archives
Party Politics – 5th in winning season (OR 153, RPR 148)
Earth Summit – pulled up (OR 152) and then 5th in winning season (OR 147, no RPR beaten 46+L)
Mon Mome – 3rd (OR 142, RPR 143) and then 7th in winning season (OR 148, RPR 116)
So it seems it has been very much a trial used to get the horse in shape rather than a must win, must get a good RPR race
Interestingly all had run in the Welsh beforehand in their winning season:
Party Politics – 2nd (OR 153, RPR 148)
Earth Summit – no run first time, then 1st (OR 143 RPR 157)
Mon Mome – 2nd (OR 136, RPR 151), 8th (OR 144, RPR 142)
#222
January 31st, 2010 21:29
Normally wouldn’t expect Irish-trained runners to run in the race
#223
January 31st, 2010 21:49
Does anybody know the last 10 winners of the Blue Square Handicap Chase, the one at Donny this coming Saturday by any chance???
#224
January 31st, 2010 22:02
Systemsman the A List: well, I think that’s the Top 4 from our previous table who were far ahead of the field (have excluded 5th place Gone To Lunch of whom I have been personally told by the trainer he is unlikely to be at Aintree and will prob go to Scots GN):
Niche Market
Church Island
Dream Alliance
Hello Bud
Then it seems to the Big 4 we are adding our own highly rated favs, who, although this varies from team member to team member, they virtually all seem still to be in our Top 25.
For me I add to the Top 4 Trabolgan, Miko, Comply, War and Snowy with Arbor, Cane and Siege in my next ‘to watch’ list.
Entries 2mo guys and then weights in a fortnight.
Top 6 should be gripping viewing when we do the next stage (at weights).
The current table for ref is:
40 Niche Market
29 Church Island
28 Dream Alliance
26 Hello Bud
21 Gone To Lunch
17 Black Apalachi
11 Comply Or Die
10 Trabolgan
10 Big Fella Thanks
10 My Will
9 Snowy Morning
8 Miko De Beauchene
6 Don’t Push It
6 Siegemaster
6 Parson’s Legacy
6 Arbor Supreme
5 War Of Attrition
5 Character Building
5 Possol
4 Casey Jones
3 Backstage
2 Cane Brake
2 Jass
2 Over The Creek
1 Mr Pointment
#225
January 31st, 2010 22:15
http://www.ratz4racing.co.uk/ normally has big race winners – can’t fidn that race though Matriarch
Back to the Haydock race…
It seems that the winner (if he runs in GN) invariably goes off at a short price for the GN and fails…
Year; Horse; Price in GN; Position in GN
2009 Rambling Minster – 8/1 pulled up
2008 Miko de Beauchene
2007 Heltornic
2006 Ossmoses
2005 Forest Gunner – 8/1 5th
2004 Jurancon II – 10/1 fell
2003 Shotgun Willy – 7/1 pulled up
When I get some more time I’m going to look at the other trials – I’m convinced that the market overreacts to performances in some races after weights out.
I guess that you don’t want a horse to leave its race behind in a trial – unless a soft one like COD’s Eider win against poor opposition (none of whom would have got in the National that year) or Silver Birch having a day out at the X-Country – even Hedgehunter was eased down near the finish of the Bobbyjo.
Of the other recent winners – Monty’s Pass, Amberleigh House, Numbersixvalverde and Mon Mome had been kept ticking over after producing before weights out.
#226
January 31st, 2010 22:26
No worries Pablo…I tried that site but no joy. Cherers anyways. I’ll just wait for the ‘previous winners’ option on the RP website to pop up.
#227
January 31st, 2010 22:43
A link for all the major races and winners, not sure if the Donny race this weekend is on here though. Plenty of trends to work out!!
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_British_National_Hunt_races
#228
January 31st, 2010 22:49
On Tuesday we will know the full list of declared runners and 2 weeks after that what weight they will be carrying.
For me nothing has altered since the Hennessy, its still seems like a strongly run race and Niche Market still the one to beat.
However I will not put all my hopes on one horse as it might come down in the cavalry charge to the first fence, Dream Alliance is an excellent second choice if going is slow.
#229
January 31st, 2010 23:07
Many thanks team for your lists today – its very helpful.
These were my anti-post bets (+AS):
40 Niche Market
29 Church Island
28 Dream Alliance
26 Hello Bud
21 Gone To Lunch
Not because they are top of the list but because I thought they were the best at the xmas stage. Looks like GTL is out and off to the SNat (but by no means certain). NM has major trends issues (but real class) and DA may have weight issues (but look very good on paper – if only he gets a decent weight but I think he will be 2/3lbs the wrong side of good). HB has dosage issues and his price profile is very poor(as is that for GTL).
And that leaves CI with AS (if he wins a chase before GN day)+ one or two more to select like SN and MDB?
It still leaves me a bit worried at this stage.
#230
February 1st, 2010 09:26
One forgotten horse, albeit not a trends or dosage horse…
Mister Top Notch
“Smart staying chaser, built for the game, and a Grade 1 winner as a novice a few seasons back… produced a fine effort under a welter burden in the Munster National at Limerick last October, finding only Dear Villez, to whom he was conceding 12lb, 3l too good; not seen out after finishing a keeping on fifth behind Schindlers Hunt over 2m5f at Leopardstown in January…a real trier who carries big weights and loves soft ground…the season’s aim being the Grand National.” Source: Jumpers to Follow 2009-2010
Also has another interesting piece of form – beating King Johns Castle in the Pierse Chase conceding 10lb (and gave Black Apalachi 18lb and a beating).
Currently OR 158 but hasn’t run in a chase for over a year so might get some respite from the handicapper – low/mid 150s maybe.
Dosage looks weak but he could be a dosage stats-buster because his dam is packed with stamina, largely due to the Vulgan influence.
Vulgan is in the pedigrees of old National favourites such as Durham Edition & Suny Bay plus previous winners Corbiere, West Tip, Royal Athlete (that’s both Jenny Pitman winners – coincidence?) and Numbersixvalverde – and he sired 3 winners Team Spirit, Foinavon (lucky) & Gay Trip.
Not saying he’ll win or even place – not sure he’ll even get an entry – don’t know if he’s fit or injured. But I will be keeping an eye out for him just in case – would be a great name for this year’s winner.
#231
February 1st, 2010 09:44
Interesting to see a B list develop. The contenders there making great appeal for me are Trabolgan, Miko, Comply, War and Cane.
Had a quick look at Erics Charm as had slipped through my net. Since 2005 the poor soul has tried to run left handed 6 times and never finished. Can’t consider on the strength of that.
#232
February 1st, 2010 09:49
Thats a good spot, Pablo; when I was a kid Vulgan seemed to be in the pedigree of just about every horse in the race. Team Spirit was my first ever winner.
#233
February 1st, 2010 10:15
Pablo,
Re: Mister Top Notch, I have a vague memory that the horse was injured after his last run and has been retired. I might be wrong but I do recall that.
#234
February 1st, 2010 10:18
Stayer – thanks – me too – I wasn’t sure whether he was injured or not but I remember hearing some news. I tried looking for the ‘out for the season’ thread on Betfair but couldn’t find it.
#235
February 1st, 2010 10:37
Maureen – a horse with Vulgan in the first 2 generations is like GN gold dust these days. Be a real shame if Mister Top Notch has been retired – would love to see him have a go.
#236
February 1st, 2010 12:17
Mister Top Notch was definitely out fo the season…I will find a link for you soon!
#237
February 1st, 2010 12:18
And here it is.
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/d-e-fitzgerald-newbury-mister-top-notch-could-have-run-his-last-race/656095/
#238
February 1st, 2010 15:05
Thanks, DO
#239
February 1st, 2010 16:45
Phil Smith and the Irish / Aintree factors:
With entries for the 2010 Grand National closing at noon tomorrow, once the entries are announced how much reliance can we place on a horses’ current OR, relative to the OR of the top rated horse as being the basis for the weight they will be assigned on 16 Feb?
Looking at the stats from last year, we can learn something about Mr Smiths criteria for adjusting allocated weights, and avoid potentially costly mistakes by backing horses who will be ‘clobbered’ by the handicapper, or overlook those we expect not to get into the race, but do.
First point to note is that we will be assessing horses based on OR published by the BHA this Wednesday 3rd Feb, however the GN weights will be allocated off ORs from the following week, that will not be known until after weights announced. Not many entrants will run in this 7 day period, but the handicapper may still re-assess them by a pound or two either way.
Each year Phil Smith makes 3 broad categories of adjustment:
- compress the top of the handicap
- factor in prior performances over GN fences
- adjusted Irish ratings
All other horses will be weighted from their OR.
Compression of the handicap means that horses within 10 OR points of the top ranked horse often appear ‘well-in’ at the weights. Based on 2009 this will be to the tune of between 1 – 8lbs. I.e. top ranked horse will carry 11’10, but unadjusted horses further down the handicap will carry 8lbs more weight relative to the top horse than their OR mark suggests. This will filter down with reducing impact to around the 11st mark. What does this mean in analysis terms – basically, horses in the early – mid 150′s may end up at around 11’00.
Aintree performances resulted in ‘penalties’ of between 2 – 12lbs being applied last year. For 2010 this could mean anything up to that level being given to the following horses in addition to their ‘fair’ weight: Pak Jack, Vic Venturi, Hello Bud, Black Apalachi, Mr Pointment, Comply or Die, Brooklyn Brownie etc etc… For some this may wreck their hopes of a GN win, but for others could get them into a race they would otherwise have been rated too low for.
Irish trained horses: It is clear that the handicapper believes Irish ratings are generally low compared to the British equivalents. Because of this he will adjust the ratings of Irish trained horses without a recent GB run (and therefore rating). In 2009 the average increase was 5lbs, and the adjustment range between 0 – 13lbs. As such if we assume a base OR of 140 being the lowest that will get in on race day, we should still consider any Irish trained entrants rated 127 and above, until we know the weights for certain. (Church Island, Parsons Pistol may come into the reckoning).
So all in all, what should we consider when making judgements on the entries prior to weights being announced?
1) Remember horses allocated around 152-155 may be slightly better treated at the weights than in a normal handicap.
2) Any horse with form in the Becher, Grand Sefton, Topham or Grand National chases may be allocated a penalty weight, this can be a + or a – depending on current OR.
3) Irish raiders will be raised in the weights, bringing those seeming too lowly rated to get into the race into contention.
4) Beware when staking on horses at the top or bottom of your preferred OR range, and any horse could still be reassesed in the weeks until the official weights announcement.
#240
February 1st, 2010 17:27
nice piece of work, Gammers!
#241
February 1st, 2010 17:39
Yes a great roundup and hope for CI aswe suspected(now if he gets 10.02 to 10.10 ust what will his price be one week after the weights are out?)
Many thanks Gammers.
#242
February 1st, 2010 17:43
So has Trabolgan no chance of being helped in? and if this is the case and was the target race, couldn’t he have been entered, like Ollie Magern was, at both racecourses at the weekend to try avoid this problem!? I like many here would love to see him get in, as the signs were positive and we all love a comeback.
#243
February 1st, 2010 18:59
Isn’t the compression of weights only a minor issue for horses over 155 and more significantly over 160 (Snoopy Loopy, Exotic Dancer last year)?
Last year’s runners
GN OR; OR; GN OR – OR; Horse
158; 159; -1; Cloudy Lane
156; 148; 8; Chelsea Harbour
156; 157; -1; Snowy Morning
143; 143; 0; Can’t Buy Time
155; 156; -1; Knowhere
154; 152; 2; Comply Or Die
154; 154; 0; Ollie Magern
154; 154; 0; Stan
153; 146; 7; Black Apalachi
153; 145; 8; Hear The Echo
153; 146; 7; Preists Leap
152; 152; 0; My Will
151; —; ; Eurotrek
150; 150; 0; State Of Play
149; 149; 0; Big Fella Thanks
148; 148; 0; Mon Mome
148; 148; 0; Silver Birch
147; 135; 12; Butler´s Cabin
147; 149; -2; Offshore Account
146; 146; 0; Parsons Legacy
146; 146; 0; Reveillez
145; 145; 0; Fundamentalist
145; 145; 0; Golden Flight
145; 141; 4; L´Ami
144; 144; 0; Battlecry
144; 144; 0; Cornish Sett
144; 144; 0; Fleet Street
144; —; ; Musica Bella
143; 143; 0; Darkness
143; 139; 4; Irish Invader
143; 143; 0; Rambling Minster
143; 143; 0; Southern Vic
141; 141; 0; Kilbeggan Blade
140; 135; 5; Brooklyn Brownie
140; 137; 3; Himalayan Trail
139; 139; 0; Arteea
139; 139; 0; Cerium
139; 136; 3; Idle Talk
139; —; ; Kelami
139; 140; -1; Zabenz
Over 155 that didn’t run:
166; 174; -8; Exotic Dancer
164; 159; 5; Madison Du Berlais
161; 165; -4; Snoopy Loopy
161; 161; 0; Star De Mohaison
160; 160; 0; Notre Pere
160; 160; 0; Nozic
159; 159; 0; Air Force One
157; 157; 0; Afistfullofdollars
#244
February 1st, 2010 19:05
And I think WOA was dropped from 163 to 157
#245
February 1st, 2010 19:25
seems Trabolgan is entered with several others including WOA and GTL at sandown on saturday. Should be warmer overnight by thursday so will go ahead
Would his OR go up by probable requirement of 2/3 if Trabolgan placed? and if he doesn’t do badly in what looks a good line up then what? no points no prizes!
WOA had special treatment for sure last year to tempt him in, but not convinced will he get it this time, as his intended target and irish!
currently 153, so could go up if he runs well in this chase on saturday. Borderline like so many on my list!
#246
February 1st, 2010 19:45
Not a problem Pablo, we are all here to help each other!
#247
February 1st, 2010 20:13
A horse no-one has mentioned yet is COE.
This could be a good long-shot.
It seems to be improving slowly, especially in its jumping, OR creeping up to 139. Has put in some solid displays and has a very good dosage profile.
Probably misses out on the stats side and i think he lacks the class of some others but i wouldn’t rule him out of getting round in a decent enough place. Thoughts…
#248
February 1st, 2010 20:16
I should also add COE came 2nd at Haydock last year, 9th in the Scottish Nat and 6th in the Welsh Nat. He fell but was running a decent enough race in the Nat Hunt at Cheltenham aswell.
#249
February 1st, 2010 20:27
Guys think i might have stumbled on something interesting from last year
Heres the horses who ran off their true marks
143; 143; 0; Can’t Buy Time – fell
154; 154; 0; Ollie Magern – fell
154; 154; 0; Stan – fell
152; 152; 0; My Will – 3rd
150; 150; 0; State Of Play – 4th
149; 149; 0; Big Fella Thanks – 6th
148; 148; 0; Mon Mome -1st
148; 148; 0; Silver Birch – fell
146; 146; 0; Parsons Legacy – fell
146; 146; 0; Reveillez – fell
145; 145; 0; Fundamentalist – pulled up
145; 145; 0; Golden Flight – fell
144; 144; 0; Battlecry
144; 144; 0; Cornish Sett
144; 144; 0; Fleet Street
143; 143; 0; Darkness
143; 143; 0; Rambling Minster – pulled up
143; 143; 0; Southern Vic – 8th
141; 141; 0; Kilbeggan Blade
139; 139; 0; Arteea – 10th
139; 139; 0; Cerium – 5th
Now take out the fallers
your then left with
148; 148; 0; Mon Mome -1st
152; 152; 0; My Will – 3rd
150; 150; 0; State Of Play – 4th
139; 139; 0; Cerium – 5th
149; 149; 0; Big Fella Thanks – 6th
143; 143; 0; Southern Vic – 8th
139; 139; 0; Arteea – 10th
143; 143; 0; Darkness 13th
144; 144; 0; Battlecry 16th
144; 144; 0; Cornish Sett 17th
143; 143; 0; Rambling Minster – pulled up
141; 141; 0; Kilbeggan Blade – pulled up
145; 145; 0; Fundamentalist – pulled up
Maybe its just coincidence but it suggests that
6 of the first 8 , and 7 of the first 10 home all ran off their proper marks. does this suggest that its mission impossible for those horses who are penalised with a higher mark because of an aintree penalty or because they are irish or even if they have a lower mark because ultimately they will have too much weight
as i said might be nothing more than coincidence but an interesting set of results nevertheless
#250
February 1st, 2010 20:54
Phil Smith would probably been happy with the result last year, so I would have thought he would have kept to the same method as last year
Can we guess the weights?
Ran previous year, near top of handicap and given another chance;
158; 159; -1; Cloudy Lane
156; 157; -1; Snowy Morning
155; 156; -1; Knowhere
2nd in Thyestes given 4lb + given 4lb for not racing in England during season;
156; 148; 8; Chelsea Harbour
UK horses either having first run over national fences, or ran below par in the previous national – mark hasn’t changed;
143; 143; 0; Can’t Buy Time
152; 152; 0; My Will
150; 150; 0; State Of Play
149; 149; 0; Big Fella Thanks
154; 154; 0; Ollie Magern
154; 154; 0; Stan
146; 146; 0; Parsons Legacy
146; 146; 0; Reveillez
145; 145; 0; Fundamentalist
145; 145; 0; Golden Flight
144; 144; 0; Battlecry
144; 144; 0; Cornish Sett
144; 144; 0; Fleet Street
144; —; ; Musica Bella
143; 143; 0; Darkness
143; 143; 0; Rambling Minster
141; 141; 0; Kilbeggan Blade
139; 139; 0; Arteea
148; 148; 0; Mon Mome
139 139; 0; Cerium
Been off track but previously ran in national so kept on same mark
139; —; ; Kelami
151; —; ; Eurotrek
148; 148; 0; Silver Birch
Previous winner;
154; 152; 2; Comply Or Die
Becher winner;
153; 146; 7; Black Apalachi
Irish national winner, Butlers Cabin was running well previous year and given another 4lb. Hear the Echo given 4lb for not racing in England and 4lb for winning IN?
153; 145; 8; Hear The Echo
147; 135; 12; Butler´s Cabin
Thyestes winner;
153; 146; 7; Preists Leap
Been off track;
147; 149; -2; Offshore Account
139; 140; -1; Zabenz
Irish horse, not run in England;
145; 141; 4; L´Ami
143; 139; 4; Irish Invader
Irish horse ran in England;
143; 143; 0; Southern Vic
Grand Sefton winner
140; 135; 5; Brooklyn Brownie
Ran in Becher
140; 137; 3; Himalayan Trail
139; 136; 3; Idle Talk
Based on that
7lbs added to the Thyestes and Becher winner
3lbs added to the horses that finished the Becher
4lbs added to the Irish horses, not to have run in the UK
2lb added to the previous winner
Snowy Morning 147 (been running in graded company though)
Church Island 143
Hello Bud 143
Vic Venturi 161!!
Mon Mome 155
Palypso de Creek 142
Whinstone Boy 138
Chelsea Harbour 145
Niche Market 148 or 152
Whatever happens with Mon Mome’s rating, it’s likely top weight will still be at least 161. Best keep an eye on Chelsea Harbour
Hope thats all nice and straight forward!!
#251
February 1st, 2010 21:10
Think COD was added 2 lb because he was raised to 154 for winning the GN then fell to 152 after poor runs – same principle as Mon Mome this year – that’s your rating son so don’t try to pull a fast one
#252
February 1st, 2010 21:11
All makes tomorrow more interesting – when will we find out?
#253
February 1st, 2010 21:12
Pull a fast one? hey?
#254
February 1st, 2010 22:27
Entrants are announced 2pm on Weds Pablo
#255
February 1st, 2010 22:37
I for one will not be placing any more bets until after the weights are announced. However, the list of entrants will enable me to narrow down my spreadsheeta and add any horses that aren’t on ther (always a few which no-one has thought of).
#256
February 1st, 2010 23:30
Now who will be the biggest surprise tommorrow and not entered?
Gone TO Lunch maybe? (his price profile has been shot to pieces and clearly something is up).
#257
February 2nd, 2010 01:30
I think Gone To Lunch will be entered at first and get pulled out later so to keep the connections options open
#258
February 2nd, 2010 01:35
I think Gone To Lunch will be entered at first to keep the options alive for the connections, and pulled out later.
#259
February 2nd, 2010 09:58
Pablo – quick response on compression of the top end of the handicap, using data from weights day 2009.
Top 3 horses all received significant benefit; Exotic Dancer 8lbs, Madison du Berlais 5lbs, Snoopy Loopy 4lbs. Next horse Star de Mohaison – bit of a mystery why left unchanged, my guess would be was re-assessed up a couple of lbs, and then received compression benefit of equal and opposite amount. Next Notre Pere who received a net 2lb penalty, probably a 6/7lb Irish penalty offset by a 4/5lb compression benefit. Then Nozic, Air Force One and Cloudy Lane all got 1lb compression benefit (unless this was all reassesment of their marks – which your data suggests it might have been). Then another strange one, WOA being 6lbs well in, and finally Afistfullofdollars unchanged, but could again hide an Irish penalty and a compression benefit.
So with a couple of odd exceptions, everything at 11’01 and above appears to have received some benefit from compression of the handicap.
TC – good work, could have cracked it
KJ – agree, I think Trabolgan needs to do enough for a 3lb rise between now and weights out.
#260
February 2nd, 2010 10:22
Systemsman don’t know if you read my previous post. Trainer informed me GTL unliley to run in GN probably go to Scots GN. However Neil you’re right, he did say he will be given an entry.
Well 1 hour and 38 minutes left to enter GN 2010. How exciting!!
#261
February 2nd, 2010 10:34
I think he’s been mentioned previously but, what’s happening with Abbeybraney this year? Was on my list for last year and was given 10.3 on weights day.
#262
February 2nd, 2010 10:37
Gammers – agreed except for I think that it needs to be made clear that:
1) In my list from the previous page, MDB’s 159 rating was before he beat Denman in the Kempton race – therefore he will have been reassessed at 169 and dropped to 164 – so effectively 5lb well in(my list of OR’s was from weights day and will be 95%+ accurate bar for a few horses that ran between entries and weights AND whose rating was subsequently changed by the handicapper – i.e. MDB)
2) The handicapper compressed the weights for those above 11’0 in the ENTRIES handicap – Exotic Dancer was top rated on 174 but given GN OR of 166 = 11’10 – when in fact Cloudy Lane was topweight on raceday off 158 = 11’2 in entries handicap
Therefore last year the compression of the weights had little to no effect on the race – and I expect the same will happen this year because the quality of those at the top (assuming max OR=163) is not as good as last year.
For me the question is how far will the handicapper go in compressing the weights?
Will it be in relation to topweight in the entries?
Or is there an OR threshold?
Surely the latter if the aim is to bring in the better horses – there must be an absolute threshold for determining the better horses?
So if 163 is topweight surely there shouldn’t be any significant compression of the weights – given that last year the real beneficiaries were all rated 165+?
#263
February 2nd, 2010 10:57
MDB is rated 166 so he might be the exception
Unless there’s something rated higher from left field (Imperial Commander was entered last year)
#264
February 2nd, 2010 11:27
Interesting arguement Pablo.
So maybe class animals that have shown little or nothing this term will be the only ones to benefit?!
SOP down from 150 to 145, one run PU, if he gets 1 or 2lb for last years GN, he will be still better off in terms of weight.
#265
February 2nd, 2010 11:32
Maybe an Aintree factor added for SOP for his 4th last year?
Butlers Cabin was kept on 147 despite falling a mile from home the previous year (going well but then a long way still to go in the race)
#266
February 2nd, 2010 11:45
Pablo – an excellent point.
So in analysis terms I would rank the entry list by OR, reduce the OR of the top few by a max of 8lbs, boost Irish or Aintree runners in line with TC’s analysis and then list weights declining from 11’10 downwards based on self adjusted ORs.
Then within that list identify the highest weight horse considered likely to run (Mon Mome, Notre Pere or Vic Venturi perhaps) and assign that horse 11’10, before re-listing the weights downwards using the same intervals as previously.
Should get us close to being able to frame which horses will run, and off what weight on the day.
Or perhaps I’ll wait until the 16th….!
#267
February 2nd, 2010 11:56
The thing is I remember we had a competition on this blog last year to guess the weights of 5 horses – I think you won KJ – and with only one correct answer!
To justify all the hype I guess the handicapper will have to do something different.
I just hope that he doesn’t start messing with ratings in the 150s too much because there is no need – topweight has never dropped below 153 since 1990 (don’t know before) and was in the 153-158 range throughout the 2000s – so these horses will run.
#268
February 2nd, 2010 12:03
Butlers Cabin was a strange anomoly, the whole thing made me lol as they say, poor little donkey did remarkably well with his lot last year, bless.
Maybe Phil will have a fritz on another horse this year
Maureen, Abbeybraney was also on my outsider/ one to watch list post last years race.
Haven’t seen him develop really have we?
Not raced in great company in his 2 races this year, unlike last, 2nd in C1s to Barbers Shop and Notre Pere.
Won at furthest distance so far of 25f last time out- C3 left handed, 8 chases, small fields, suppose not a strong enough case!? wonder if he gets entered, like Arbor, will find it hard to resist a horse spotted a year or so before the race!
#269
February 2nd, 2010 12:14
Yep Pablo, I won, only competition I ever won! great fun hope admin puts it on this year, it was like our little lottery!
think I got Him Trails weight, 3 others got one correct too, won on tiebreaker question for no. of entries left, everything was way off for everyone which was really funny and suprising, something to bare in mind when second guessing phil.
#270
February 2nd, 2010 13:41
Copy and paste from theracingforum: (Dont know where he got the info from, i cant find it anywhere and the betfair markets are still suspended.)
——————————————-
Entries for the Grand National closed today and interestingly there are fewer entries this year than for some time – 111 entered.
#271
February 2nd, 2010 13:42
See Iris (de Hyena) still has Aintree on the agenda! comeback finally begining at wetherby.
I’m wondering seriously as I’m sure alot of us are, if Miko been entered!
Will an entry tell us what Venetia thinks of his suitability to jump aintree fences? or will he just be withdrawn if entered at a later date, what is Venetias record regarding approach to races, any clues out there?
#272
February 2nd, 2010 13:47
111!!! wow! thats less than the withrawl stage last year! does it cost anything to enter/ withdraw? could be the reccession, only serious candidates entered…
#273
February 2nd, 2010 13:59
Doesnt really matter how many are entered now I think – there were 20-30 last year that would have been about 2 stone and more out of the handicap if they had run!!
Maybe the fact Notre Pere is being seriously considered for this race has scared a few off, as even more will face the risk of being out of the handicap.
entries anybody!?
#274
February 2nd, 2010 15:48
Hi KJ – have you heard or was it in the press – is Aintree the pkan for Iris?
#275
February 2nd, 2010 16:49
Hey Showland
I just read it on racingpost.com
trainer quoted as saying “I have entered him in the Grand National but I just want him back on the track first and then we will see what happens after that. He has to get in the National for a start so it’s very much at the handicapper’s discretion. Hopefully he will run this weekend and then go to the Eider Chase at the end of the month. If he is still all right after that then he would go to Aintree.”
Last yr COD raised 2lb for winning, so SOP will be raised what 1 for placing?
alot comes down to weight increases AFTER weights announced in actual effect, last year 8lb raise from what looked a winning mark for alot, inc COD who ran off 11st6 in the end.
Now, we don’t think MDB will run here do we, he’ll go for the bowl, so why bother, but if he entered given top weight and withdraws leaving NP tops, thats just a 3lb rise this yr. Leaves SOP at square one!
what do we think COD will get? I think if fair, ha! another 1 lb on last yrs allocated weight, so 10st12!? This means if subsequent rise is just 3lb winning is possible! or am I dreaming
#276
February 2nd, 2010 16:49
Well, we have a 6 year-old entered: Galant Nuit. That would be a bit of a trends buster. Not been able to get any more info so far over and above the 111 entries, so looks like they are doing a good job of embargoing the info until tomorrow.
#277
February 2nd, 2010 17:12
Just found this – dont you think it makes the perfect Grand National winners story (there’s always one) – if he wins that is?
Fingers and toes crossed for DA weight!!
“Cheltenham man’s racehorse could hit big screens.
THE extraordinary story of a racehorse owned by a Cheltenham man is set to be turned into a film.
A US-based film company with Welsh connections are currently seeking investment to make a movie about Dream Alliance, whose band of owners include Peter Woodall, who lives near The Reddings.
Racing has proved popular with film-makers, with National Velvetstarring Elizabeth Taylor and Seabiscuit starring Tobey Maguire among those to make it to the silver screen.
A film about Dream Alliance has all the ingredients to be a classic, from his humble beginnings on an allotment in a mining village in Wales, to surviving a life-threatening injury and winning the Welsh National for the 22-strong Alliance Partnership.
To complete his fairytale story, Dream Alliance will now bid for a famous win the Grand National.
Woodall said: “How things have turned out is beyond my wildest dreams.”It’s beyond my wildest dreams.”
Dream Alliance was bred from a £350 mare and raised on an allotment by Jan Vokes, who runs a working men’s club in Cefn Fforest, where most of the syndicate are regulars.
Woodall, a tax partner for a company in Bristol, was persuaded to sign up to the syndicate for £10 a week by a work colleague.
After going into training with Philip Hobbs, Dream Alliance showed talent by finishing second to Denman in the 2007 Hennessy Gold Cup.
But disaster struck when the horse sustained a severed a tendon in front of Woodall’s eyes at the 2008 Grand National meeting.
Woodall said: “It was touch and go whether was he put down on the racecourse.
“We asked the vets whether there was a chance he could walk again – we weren’t even thinking about racing – and they said yes, so we sent him to the veterinary hospital in Liverpool for stem cell treament and paid for it out of the money he’d won for us.”
Dream Alliance recovered so dramatically that he went back into training with Hobbs and confounded the experts by winning the Welsh National at 20-1.
Woodall said: “Tom O’Brien, who had only just come back from injury himself, gave him a fantastic ride.
“I’ve never seen so many grown men cry.”
Dream Alliance is 33-1 for the Grand National at Aintree on April 10.
He will gear up for the world-famous race in the Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock on February 10.”
http://www.thisisgloucestershire.co.uk/sport/
P.S. still time to drop a pound or two in weight!! (by not winning!!)- now why would you want to win on Feb10 when you are already OR151.
Should he get in unber 11.00 he must have a great chance!!
#278
February 2nd, 2010 17:17
Sorry to spoil the fun Systemsman but the Haydock race is on 20 February after weights out
#279
February 2nd, 2010 18:49
Re: Dream Alliance
The paper got it wrong – I should have checked our site first.
Lets hope the handicapper is kind (or MM not top weight which we have tended to overealy on I think. NP could easily be top even on GN day)as DM on even 11.00 must be right in there in my book (over this on GN day and its a problem).
Now how can you resist a runner with this background?
“Dream Alliance was bred from a £350 mare and raised on an allotment”
Worth a £1 bet just for the fun the hope and the dream!
#280
February 2nd, 2010 18:51
Correction:
“as DA (Dream Alliance)on even 11.00 must be right in there in my book etc etc”
#281
February 2nd, 2010 18:59
Thanks KJ for Iris info and right on Systemsman re Dream Alliance
Only hours now until the 2010 GN entrants are unveiled. Hope none of our main players are omitted.
#282
February 2nd, 2010 19:22
Best joke so far…I wonder if Rambo is entered, surely not!!
#283
February 2nd, 2010 21:34
Not only did they nearly lose Dream Alliance at Aintree but they had just lost his dam [I think it was the night before]. Thankfully the foal that she was having survived. Philip Hobbs said that even if they couldn’t save Dream Alliance for racing he would get a job as a police horse or something similar because of his wonderful temperament. The lady who bred him still works at a supermarket to pay for it all, but people in the syndicate are spread as far as Scotland. It’s one of the most amazing racing stories ever, and I’m going to be a complete wreck watching him in the race. Stem cell treatment is so unbelieveable and the horses seem to come back as good as new. If there is a God of Racing surely he will let this horse win the National!
#284
February 3rd, 2010 09:01
In ‘our’ archives;
1)**COMPLY OR DIE says: February 10, 2009 at 9:04 PM
Looking back at the notes I made in 07 about the Betfair market on the day of the weights. Only 12 out of the top 20 actually ran,Silver Birch was not in the top 20.In fact not one of the 1st 4 home were in the top 20 in the betting.**
Has anyone got information on 08, 09?
2) Last year on weights day some bloggers here listed their fancies. Top of the table of ‘mentions’ not points;
State Of Play 7
Butlers Cabin 5
Cornish Sett 5
Mon Mome 4
Parsons Legacy 4
Himalayan Trail 4
Garde Champetre 4
Collectively much better than our final table. What went wrong!
Have to recall ‘Brian’s’ effort. Played a blinder. 13 horses listed, 2 didn’t run, named the 1,2,3,4!; Comply or Die, Hear the echo, My will,State of play,Mon mome,Butlers cabin,Parsons legacy, Cornish sett,Rambling minster, Garde Champetre,Kilbeggan Blade,Character Building,Himalayan trail
#285
February 3rd, 2010 10:11
When are the entries published? Betfair have suspended betting so it must be soon
#286
February 3rd, 2010 10:15
A good and MAJOR MAJOR point Crisp. Last year we seemed to rate highly what came natural to our skilled and talented considerations and possibly then got distracted by more current races and new hotties that appeared including those with no big race track record eg Rambling Minster.
As the saying goes ‘If it ain’t broke don’t fix it!’.
I had Mon Mome as one of my main fancies initially. This regard, along with the team, dwindled, though thankfully I never laid bets I had on him at some of those crazy odds, so I did OK only by my last bit of sane reasoning, which was that he was too good a horse to lay for the pennies I would get in return and that it was far better to leave the bets in place – thank God I did.
Great time to bring up that point Crisp, as the GN 2010 entrants are imminent.
#287
February 3rd, 2010 10:16
Noon today Stayer
#288
February 3rd, 2010 10:27
Thanks Showlad.
That is food for thought regarding Rambo. We should definitely be careful not to get too carried away with a stand-out peformance. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but Rambo won a 3m4f slog in heavy ground 7 weeks before the National. 7 weeks sounds like a lot to me but perhaps it wasn’t long enough for an 11yo to fully recover from those exertions?
This year I will be far more careful and with only a couple of months before Aintree I will be looking at how hard a race a horse has. At the end of the day you want the horse to be at it’s peak in April, not in February or March.
#289
February 3rd, 2010 10:44
Was Rambo’s performance something to do with the ride? James Reveley is a great rider, but the family loved Rambo dearly and I wonder if the horse was entered under much trepidation. Keith said 3 months ago: ‘he got a bit of a fright over the fences in the National last season’. Was this to to do with a too cautious ride? Only conjecture but food for thought…
It is SO brave of jockey and rider riding in the world’s greatest race but to me it HAS to be done so with a passion, confidence and grit.
#290
February 3rd, 2010 10:55
Indeed Showlad, worry passed from Keith to horse, it was obvious on the BBC interview with him beforehand, that expectation didn’t help him either, I remember thinking “oh no!”
The combination of fear and carnage the horse subsequently met, plus the exertions in the impressive slog race he won before, seems to have set him back forever, poor little pet! ah!
#291
February 3rd, 2010 10:56
Maybe it was the ride, maybe he got a fright early and didn’t enjoy it, maybe he was still feeling the effects of a hard race at Haydock. Could be one or all of those factors and we’ll never know for sure, but I think the lesson is there that a horse shouldn’t go from zero to hero on the back of one run. I know some people backed Rambo before his Haydock win (including me) but I got carried away after that win and ended up staking far too much on him.
On these pages we’ve been talking about the 2010 National pretty much since the day after the 2009 race. Between us we have a list of horses that have caught the eye over a period of time and have shown us on more than one occasion that they could have what it takes to win this. We’d probably do best to stick with those and not let one good run from a previously unconsidered horse cloud our judgement.
#292
February 3rd, 2010 11:04
thanks Crisp, for reminding us of Brian and his true voice, I miss him, he was one of a somewhat dwindling bunch this year that were prepared to really discuss whatever horse came up from anyone! tand assess performance and feelings along with stats, and reasses, like with MM il we managed to talk each other out of it, ha ha!
Admin email Brian would ya!
#293
February 3rd, 2010 11:07
I think there are Grand National trainers and non Grand National trainers. Those like Paul Nicholls who don’t give it the respect it deserves; Alan King, who doesn’t seem to like his horses running but, above all Mary Reveley who apparetly detests the race [and it must filter through]. Also, a younger horse might run a mighty race before the National and still be improving/maturing, whereas an older one may win a big race and that will be the peak of his career. I’d still veer towards 9 and 10 year olds.
#294
February 3rd, 2010 11:18
I agree KJ, yes admin, as a special favour to us please tell Brian team says hi and that we need him to come back and join the team’s efforts
#295
February 3rd, 2010 11:32
I’ve only gone and found my one and only tiny notebook! hoo-bloody-rah! First bit of good luck all year, serious! going to start writing things down again, feel I’ve missed picking out alot of good points, that may have got my list get below 10! I know I should’ve been anyway, oh well,. its a little insight into changing thoughts good and bad, a bit like a diary but not thank god!
Immediately found a Crisp nugget!
post GN last year wrote his 2010 likes, think Crisp said the winner could be found as early as April stats wise, not sure if this is pure stats based tho, anyway, still looks good 9mths later,
CB, SOP, Parsons, Miko, Iris, Flintoff, Hot Weld, Nine de Sivola, BC, COD, BA.
#296
February 3rd, 2010 12:19
Yes; I found some notes last week for coming season. Back Go Native for Ch Hurdle; 33/1 now but you’ll see a different horse come March. [too late!]
#297
February 3rd, 2010 12:47
112 entries
Abbeybraney (IRE) J. Howard Johnson 9
According To John (IRE) N. G. Richards 10
Air Force One (GER) C. J. Mann 8
Albertas Run (IRE) Jonjo O’Neill 9
Anothercoppercoast (IRE) Paul A. Roche, Ireland 10
Arbor Supreme (IRE) W. P. Mullins, Ireland 8
Backstage (FR) Gordon Elliott, Ireland 8
Ballyfitz N. A. Twiston-Davies 10
Ballyholland (IRE) C. A. McBratney, Ireland 9
Ballytrim (IRE) W. P. Mullins, Ireland 9
Beat The Boys (IRE) N. A. Twiston-Davies 9
Belon Gale (IRE) J. Howard Johnson 7
Beroni (IRE) W. P. Mullins, Ireland 8
Bible Lord (IRE) Andrew Turnell 9
Big Fella Thanks P. F. Nicholls 8
Black Apalachi (IRE) D. T. Hughes, Ireland 11
Boychuk (IRE) P. J. Hobbs 9
Can’t Buy Time (IRE) Jonjo O’Neill 8
Cane Brake (IRE) T. J. Taaffe, Ireland 11
Casey Jones (IRE) N. Meade, Ireland 9
Cerium (FR) Paul Murphy 9
Character Building (IRE) J. J. Quinn 10
Chelsea Harbour (IRE) Thomas Mullins, Ireland 10
Chiaro (FR) P. J. Hobbs 8
Chief Dan George (IRE) James Moffatt 10
Cloudy Lane D. McCain Jnr 10
Coe (IRE) Mrs S. J. Smith 8
Comply Or Die (IRE) D. E. Pipe 11
Conna Castle (IRE) James Joseph Mangan, Ireland 11
Cossack Dancer (IRE) M. Bradstock 12
Darkness C. R. Egerton 11
Deutschland (USA) W. P. Mullins, Ireland 7
Don’t Push It (IRE) Jonjo O’Neill 10
Dooneys Gate (IRE) W. P. Mullins, Ireland 9
Dream Alliance P. J. Hobbs 9
Duers (IRE) P. Magnier, Ireland 8
Ellerslie George (IRE) Nick Mitchell 10
Equus Maximus (IRE) W. P. Mullins, Ireland 10
Eric’s Charm (FR) O. Sherwood 12
Faasel (IRE) D. E. Pipe 9
Flintoff (USA) Miss Venetia Williams 9
Follow The Plan (IRE) Oliver McKiernan, Ireland 7
Galant Nuit (FR) Ferdy Murphy 6
Glenfinn Captain (IRE) T. J. Taaffe, Ireland 11
Gone To Lunch (IRE) J. Scott 10
Hello Bud (IRE) N. A. Twiston-Davies 12
Iris de Balme (FR) S. Curran 10
Irish Invader (IRE) W. P. Mullins, Ireland 9
Irish Raptor (IRE) N. A. Twiston-Davies 11
Jayo (FR) W. P. Mullins, Ireland 7
Joe Lively (IRE) C. L. Tizzard 11
Kilbeggan Blade T. R. George 11
Kilcrea Castle (IRE) Miss E. C. Lavelle 8
King Johns Castle (IRE) A. L. T. Moore, Ireland 11
Kings Advocate (IRE) T. J. Taaffe, Ireland 10
Knowhere (IRE) N. A. Twiston-Davies 12
Kornati Kid P. J. Hobbs 8
Le Beau Bai (FR) R. Lee 7
Lennon (IRE) J. Howard Johnson 10
Lorum Leader (IRE) Dr R. D. P. Newland 9
Louping d’Ainay (FR) F. Cottin, France 11
Made In Taipan (IRE) Thomas Mullins, Ireland 8
Madison du Berlais (FR) D. E. Pipe 9
Maljimar (IRE) Nick Williams 10
Merigo (FR) A. Parker 9
Mon Mome (FR) Miss Venetia Williams 10
Mr Pointment (IRE) Paul Murphy 11
Mumbles Head (IRE) P. Bowen 9
My Will (FR) P. F. Nicholls 10
New Alco (FR) Ferdy Murphy 9
Niche Market (IRE) R. H. Buckler 9
Notre Pere (FR) J. T. R. Dreaper, Ireland 9
Nozic (FR) P. F. Nicholls 9
Offaly (IRE) Mrs P. Townsley 9
Officier de Reserve (FR) Miss Venetia Williams 8
Offshore Account (IRE) C. F. Swan, Ireland 10
Old Benny A. King 9
Ollie Magern N. A. Twiston-Davies 12
One Cool Cookie (IRE) C. F. Swan, Ireland 9
Oodachee C. F. Swan, Ireland 11
Our Vic (IRE) D. E. Pipe 12
Over The Creek D. E. Pipe 11
Pablo du Charmil (FR) D. E. Pipe 9
Pak Jack (FR) R. T. Phillips 10
Palypso de Creek (FR) C. E. Longsdon 7
Parsons Legacy (IRE) P. J. Hobbs 12
Parsons Pistol (IRE) N. Meade, Ireland 8
Piraya (FR) D. E. Pipe 7
Pomme Tiepy (FR) W. P. Mullins, Ireland 7
Possol (FR) H. D. Daly 7
Preists Leap (IRE) Thomas O’Leary, Ireland 10
Razor Royale (IRE) N. A. Twiston-Davies 8
Roulez Cool R. Waley-Cohen 7
Royal County Star (IRE) A. J. Martin, Ireland 11
Royal Rosa (FR) J. Howard Johnson 11
Seven Is My Number (IRE) D. E. Pipe 8
Siegemaster (IRE) D. T. Hughes, Ireland 9
Silver Birch (IRE) Gordon Elliott, Ireland 13
Sizing Australia (IRE) Henry de Bromhead, Ireland 8
Snowy Morning (IRE) W. P. Mullins, Ireland 10
Star de Mohaison (FR) M. Todhunter 9
State of Play Evan Williams 10
Taranis (FR) P. F. Nicholls 9
The Package D. E. Pipe 7
Trabolgan (IRE) N. J. Henderson 12
Treacle (IRE) T. J. Taaffe, Ireland 9
Tricky Trickster (IRE) P. F. Nicholls 7
Trust Fund (IRE) R. Barber 12
Vic Venturi (IRE) D. T. Hughes, Ireland 10
War of Attrition (IRE) M. F. Morris, Ireland 11
Wee Robbie N. J. Gifford 10
Whinstone Boy (IRE) James Joseph Mangan, Ireland 9
#298
February 3rd, 2010 12:51
Have checked the Racing Post and ATR websites but no list of entries to be found anywhere….Can anyone help or do we have to wait for the weights?
Also my small contribution to fancied improving horses not making the final 40. Why not a penalty system for any runs in chases AFTER the weights are published so horses who are on the up but got a smallish weight in Feb might leapfrog a ‘freak’ allocation or two who are the Cerium style rubbish (I know I know …it ran well last year).
It wouldnt pay trainers to give something who looks likely to get in an ‘easy mid div’ prep as the horses ahead might well pick up the penalties and overtake them in the list. And those trainers whoget overtaken cant ‘cry’ about not being able to prep as they wish (yes a prep to finish mid div….now about the ‘schooling in public’ rule…)…as horses more deserving in April (ie via improvemen since the weights come out) will get to run instead of their ‘not quite one of the best 40′ come the day.
Simples.
#299
February 3rd, 2010 12:53
No Church Island…not a good start for many.
#300
February 3rd, 2010 12:54
CHURCH ISLAND??!! WTF is Hourigan playing at?
#301
February 3rd, 2010 12:58
Thanks Dan, are these from the official source THEN?
#302
February 3rd, 2010 13:01
No Miko either !
#303
February 3rd, 2010 13:01
No Miko and alot of interesting pretenders starting with Abbeybraney, Ellersie George, Maljimar, Sizing Australia, Whinstone or Treacle anyone?!!!
Had wrong feelings about CI all round, not even entered, ouch!
#304
February 3rd, 2010 13:05
Interesting absentees (apart from Church Island):
Miko De Beauchene
Garde Champetre
L’Ami
Cornish Sett
Butler’s Cabin
Southern Vic
Lacdoudal
Silver By Nature
#305
February 3rd, 2010 13:07
I came across the entries on another forum so cant say it is official yet.
#306
February 3rd, 2010 13:25
Looking at the RP site these entries appear accurate. We can now beging separating the wheat from the chaff/2-milers before the weights come out.
#307
February 3rd, 2010 13:32
Official Aintree entries here:
http://www.aintree.co.uk/news/112-entries-for-2010-john-smiths-grand-national/
No Church Island (a big anti-post bet at 100/1!!)- gutted and no Miko (no bet so far)- bloody hell looks like I went in too early this year. Still DA and NM still in three
#308
February 3rd, 2010 13:38
ever heard this little ditti?
1,1 was a race horse
2,2 was 1,2
1,1,1,1 race
and 2,2,…1,1,2!
sorry I’m getting over excited!
Like you said Stayer interesting absentees, but except for Miko, I had down others as definately won’t run, or can’t win or even place, including some old friends, so no help there for me. If lists correct I am genuinely suprised by CIs non entry, much more so than Miko, bad vibes for both.
Agree now is the time to go through OTHERS and newcomers that are off our radar.
#309
February 3rd, 2010 13:39
Interesting that they found a problem with State of Play after the Hennessey and have sorted it out. Wondered why he ran so badly. Silver by Nature was always more likely to go for the Scottish National. Whinstone Boy and Treacle interesting; J Mangan hasn’t had him [WB] long, has he?
#310
February 3rd, 2010 13:40
What do people make of OLD BENNY?
I see he’s been entered for an interesting looking 4m Class 2 chase at Doncaster on Saturday. Currently rated 132 so would need a win or at least a place to guarantee a run at Aintree. Has won over 4m in the past and 4th in a Scottish National. As big as 100/1 with Totesport.
#311
February 3rd, 2010 13:54
No entries for Halcon, Dear Villez, Rambo, Hennessy, in addition to the ones above.
Entries of interest on initial rundown: Ollie Magern, Dream Alliance, My Will, Joe Lively, Gone to Lunch, Niche Market, Beat the Boys, Cane Brake, Character Building, State of Play, Arbor Supreme, Hello Bud, Knowhere, Parsons Legacy…
A strong renewal in prospect.
#312
February 3rd, 2010 14:13
A couple from further to the left of the field!
Beat The Boys is an intriguing one – she tends to win one race, and then PU in the next.
My concern would be the fact she has been pulled up in all of the national type races she has entered.
She has never finished out of the first 3 however when she has completed a chase!! 15 starts, 6 wins, 3 other places, and 5 PU. Just the one fall (in the Blue Square GC last year) to her name. Stamina is no problem, doing most of her serious racing over 3m4f and further.
Cant figure her out though. Anybody?
Other one is Over the Creek – 3rd in the 2007 Welsh National. 2nd over 4 miles at Cheltenham (to Old Benny) in 2008. Lightly raced 11yo (mainly down to injuries) I know he has been knocked around on her before only to not make it to the race track in time each year, but this year he’s had a couple of hurdle runs already.
My concern would be both of those hurdle runs have been poor. Could be one to watch though – if he were to run with a touch more promise next time out, I would be interested.
#313
February 3rd, 2010 14:21
Systemsman give us Church Island’s profile again and those ridiculous and you and I would bet on him big time again – too great a profile and odds to ignore. So NO REGRETS! This will just make us focus even harder to spraed our smaller pot further. Deal, OK?!
Respect to Vanetia for Miko at least no leading us on.
Dream, Niche, Hello, Trabolgan, Arbor, Siege, Beat Boys – still great value options.
#314
February 3rd, 2010 14:22
should read ‘ridiculous odds’
#315
February 3rd, 2010 14:26
OK serious task. Gold Star to first team member who posts up entries and where they should sit weights wise – this will help us see the Top 80 or so who alone should be in chance of making cut. Can use their own or the helpful analysis on what weights Phil may allocate that was posted up other day.
Just a rough to help us see who can be discounted weights wise immediately.
#316
February 3rd, 2010 14:27
great minds ey maureen?
as I remember we both got NM and Treacles big odds wins, tipped whinstone lhere last time out, but didn’t follow up, went for Paddy Pub again instead, doh!
Whinstone is really interesting me again now,
Buckskin dam sire, very inexperienced but very good jumper, blatent stayer, 9yr old, but is he one for heavy conditions only? bring on the rain! is he another Amberleigh House? would be interested on your take maureen.
#317
February 3rd, 2010 14:30
damn his OR only 131
#318
February 3rd, 2010 14:38
KJ,
On that note there are quite a few horses engaged this weekend that need big runs to ensure a run:
Old Benny(132) and Chiaro(130) have been entered for the 4m race at Doncaster on Saturday (Class 2).
At Sandown on Saturday there is a 3m Class 2 which has quite a few National entries engaged, most notably Trabolgan(137), Irish Raptor(135), Kilbeggan Blade(135), According To John(130) and Lorum Leader(127). They all need to put in a decent run to ensure they get in at Aintree. I think we are in for an interesting few weeks before the weights come out as trainers scramble to get their horses into the race.
#319
February 3rd, 2010 14:43
Hey KJ. Whinstone only won last time out for me as on feather weight, also Siege looked like lots left in tank that day and was FAR more noteworthy.
Daniel, BIG fan of what could be a very dark horse this year Beat The Boys who loves good ground (on whcih GN is ran mostly) she is a HE by the way lol. Possibly only horse to win 2 chases this year ‘staying on’ and one win was a class 1.
#320
February 3rd, 2010 15:14
Interesting that amongst the entries is Mr Pointment whose stamina I’ve questioned before, wonder if now he’s older if he’ll stay better.
#321
February 3rd, 2010 15:15
This is true Showlad, he won with a featherweight but jumped and travelled impeccably never the less unlike all the rest and would get a featherweight again IF he squeezed in.
He also won a hurdle before that with 11st10 beating Powerstation and Scotsirish, who also likes it heavy.
I’d have to disagree about Seigemaster his last couple of squiffy jumps in that race suggested to me there wasn’t anything much left, but maybe he had an off day and on 144 in the GN can’t rule out.
#322
February 3rd, 2010 15:15
Showlad “no regrets” its the price you pay to get a big big price at anti-post – I lose one or two every year. Miko a bonus for me as he was going to be my next bet but he is no longer competition for my other runners now.
About to go out a place a big bet on Dream Alliance who will run and i dont care anymore about his weight as I know he will give his all – has to be my NO 1 now (I think i will back him all the way down to under 15/1 or less). Still hope lives for AS if he can pull a chase win out of the bag before the GN. Nice to see GTL still in there and really hope they think again about running him if he gets a good weight (obviouisly aimed at the Scots Nat but who knows – they didnt withdraw him today did they?.
Cant wait for the weights and our new top of the GN chart scores.
#323
February 3rd, 2010 15:17
I am even more certain that this years GN winner already has the correct GN winners stats/trends and that there are no new surprises – its all down to the weights now I think.
#324
February 3rd, 2010 15:20
Siegemaster, Casey Jones, Equus Maximus – all good horses but do they have the experience?
Be interesting to look at the age breakdown – how many 6 and 7 years old entered compared with last year
One Cool Cookie – if he remembers to turn left at the Canal Turn (think last 21 starts right-handed) is interesting me again
Potentially the best pedigree in the race – Old Vic sire (COD’s dad), Montelimar (damsire – father to Hedgehunter & Monty’s Pass) & other influences on the damside Le Bavard (damsire of Numbersixvalverde) and Vulgan (the daddy)
Now rated 140 in Ireland – was allocated 153 last year
#325
February 3rd, 2010 15:22
Could have sworn she was a she!!
I must have got confused – I know Beat The Boys is owned by a group of women. Maybe’s thats what did for me.
#326
February 3rd, 2010 15:25
…and potential major pull in weights with Niche Market (thought OCC was going quite well in the Irish until he made an odd manoeuvre out of Irish Raptor’s box of tricks)
#327
February 3rd, 2010 15:34
Personally, im struggling to find one that ticks all the boxes – there are ‘ifs’ and maybes about plenty this year, but nothing that jumps out.
With all the disruption over the past 4-6 weeks due to the weather, I think im gonna hold fire until some of the likely contenders get out there for another run.
I dont think theres any need to rush on now for fear of missing a price – Rambo was available at 22 after his Blue Square win last year, for at least 2 weeks after it as well, and went off around 9 on Betfair i seem to recall.
Most the market movement is in the 2-3 weeks before the race i.e. after cheltenham.
#328
February 3rd, 2010 15:36
To Dan Edwards
Beat The Boys Nigel TD tends to run it too quickly after previous race/s. Its winning form is v good and maybe NTD is trying to get another quick run in before handicapper gets at it.
Ballyfitz is another NTD with in and out form who seems to be run too quickly. Fair 5th Welsh Nat (less than 2 weeks from prev run) and did beat Big Fella Thanks as a novice!
Interesting Irish entry is Ballyholland. Won Grade A Galway plate and has won over diff distances and hurdles/chase in heavy or worse.
If gets a racing weight I might risk £5 ew at long odds early doors.
#329
February 3rd, 2010 15:38
right thats it, can’t wait till weights out now with that kind of threat systemsman!
I’m going to back the dream!
price hasn’t changed since I got that dreamy feeling about it the same day Crisp put his money down a while ago. Suppose the reason the price has lasted is his borderline weight issues and having won a hard race already. NP entry has made that 2lb better, hope phil doesn’t randomly make it 2lb worse!
Will back it anyway, long live the dream!
#330
February 3rd, 2010 16:02
not done it yet! cold feet!
may end up just watching to snap up last 33s
Does anyone have a table handy, re winning or placing in welsh nat in same year as running GN?
was wondering if they get added penalty in GN weights or just increased OR, and wether they just need a year to recover as I feel stats point too.
Do horses ever do both (or nearly) in one season?
#331
February 3rd, 2010 16:14
For those that follow the 30/30 stat – A top 5 Hennessey/top 3 Irish, Scots, Welsh National/top 2 in race over GN fences – the 111 entries can be chopped straight down to about 27 or 28 I think.
#332
February 3rd, 2010 16:16
earth summit , corbiere did the double in same season , party politics and bindaree placed in welsh nat and then won in same season . so it can be done Niche Market and Dream Alliance look like the professionals choice here … still some good value to be had elsewhere . joe lively , maljimar , cant buy time , my will for starters
#333
February 3rd, 2010 16:24
Erics Charm, 66-1. Nice one Eric, nice one son …. Well, Mon Mome got an RPR in the 140′s in finishing down the field in last years Blue Square Gold Cup so hoping for Eric at least shows some enthusiam left handed, may be a top 6 finish, and gets an RPR 141 or more.
Had a couple of pounds each way on Churchie at 100-1. Well, there you are.
Ian Bartlett is standing down from BBC commentary team. It will now be the classic McGrath(O’Sullevan)over to Owen(Hanmer) over to O’Heir(Wilson) back to Owen over to McGrath … I’m not excited honest!!!!
#334
February 3rd, 2010 16:29
kj
Mon Mome was mid div 8th in 2008 Welsh Nat (tho 2nd in 2006 WN)(after mistake put it out of contention) while Cornish Sett was 2nd but came near the back in 09 GN.
Naunton Brook 4th 07 WN …pu in 08 GN
Heros Collange 2nd 05 WN….ur in 06 GN
Cornish Rebel 3rd 05 WN…pu in 06 GN
Silver Birch won it in 04 but not the GN till 07
Strong Resolve 2nd 04 WN…. 17th behind Hedgehunter 05 GN
L’Aventure 4th in 04 WN…. 15th in 05 GN
Supreme Glory won 01 WN and was second in GN but in 03.
Not a great pointer mate methinks!!
#335
February 3rd, 2010 16:32
Got the 33/1 at Corals on “the Dream” and feel a lot better for it after losing out on CI. I do feel his price will drop in the week after the weights are out as he is likely to be allocted 10.12 if NP stays in (please run in the GN, NP!). I could even see both NM and DA on 10.11 each due to their runs against Denman.
Still as of today you can easily get 33/1 on DA but keep an eye on it KJ. Me i’am going to back it all the way down but there will be about five others to keep it company.
Now i need to find another runner – whoes it going to be? – bets to wait for the weigts I think.
The Stayer (anyone): I dont surpose you have that list of 27/28 out of the 111 entries that fit the 30/30 stat and their OR’s?? It would be a good starting point I think for reassement at this point. We can forget anything under OR137 and over OR152 – so what does that leave?
#336
February 3rd, 2010 16:32
Crisp its O’Heir the BBC have ditched IB will now do 1-4 and Valentines to race course and Darren Owen is doing Bechers area!!
#337
February 3rd, 2010 16:33
State of Play confirmed for National and will go straight to Aintree as his trainer says he runs better the fresher he is…..has been injured recently surely cant win….who was the last horse to win a GN on first run of season?! Cant be many recent ones?! Oh and cheers to CI’s trainer….still two months left till GN and i’m down already! Grrr.
#338
February 3rd, 2010 16:34
Re above post as Welsh National as v poor pointer to GN …
Can’t go with The Dream lads…sorry!!
#339
February 3rd, 2010 16:37
thanks silver, I shoulda bloody known, I won with all of those (in the GN) mind you it was the only race I knew then,. ah those were the days, ignorance was bliss!
like that weetabix ad on tv!
thought Silver was retiring too, but your down to run mate
#340
February 3rd, 2010 16:38
Systemsman,
I think these are the 27/28 though it’s probably best to double-check as I may have missed some. I have also added WOA because he clearly has the class to win this and this stat is basically looking at class at the end of the day:
2506-P Air Force One346 8 153 -4
151U-0 Black Apalachi77 11 — -4
43391- Character Building394 10 145 —
P072-0 Comply Or Die147 11 154 -4
UPP/21 Dream Alliance103 9 151 142 160
3/52-P Flintoff103 9 139 -4
2-285P Gone To Lunch103 10 148 154 162
1-735U Hello Bud103 12 140 129 148
31314/ Iris De Balme714 10 — —
01-4U5 Irish Raptor126 11 135 76 130
2/7-79 King Johns Castle77 11 — 130 143
81-324 Madison Du Berlais70 9 162 153 165
81-P34 Mon Mome77 10 153 150 157
/6220- Mr Pointment406 11 — —
53-275 My Will125 10 150 135 154
81-835 Niche Market102 9 148 149 157
2-1F54 Notre Pere102 9 — 172 176
214/9P Old Benny103 9 132 -4
825-05 Oodachee245 11 — 108 122
342/8P Over The Creek75 11 — -4
1PF-50 Parsons Legacy119 12 139 68 118
F-26C2 Silver Birch69 13 — 110 135
/144-P State Of Play133 10 145 -4
1/P6-4 Trabolgan120 12 137 129 142
P/11-1 Trust Fund339 12 136 -4
-21150 Vic Venturi77 10 — 150 161
P23041 War Of Attrition79 11 — 108 153
#341
February 3rd, 2010 16:40
Just realised that Old Benny shouldn’s actually be there. Think he was 4th in a Scottish Nat but the stat says top 3.
#342
February 3rd, 2010 16:44
Silver Birch.
Cheers for Welsh Nat stats but am going to suggest they are ancient history maybe (as in trainers saying a good 2 1/2 miler is the Aintree type) and the last 10 yrs shows v poor correlation between WN placed horses and GN in same season.
Maybe if someone offered me 40′s for DA for 2011 GN I might bite their hand off!!
#343
February 3rd, 2010 16:45
Just realised I missed Ollie Magern and Royal Rosa who both hit the 30/30 stat but are very unlikely winners. Royal Rosa won’t even get in off 123.
#344
February 3rd, 2010 16:45
OK a little info from last year for us to use when whatever ‘lil star (please!) posts up the projected weights list.
The horse that just made the cut was Zabenz on OR of 139 and he was 74th on the original list. So when projected list is posted up we will be pretty safe to just regard the first 80.
Incidentally for all of those who just squeezed in, all on an OR of 139, it just shows what motivation does for the spirit, as they fared really well as a group. Though Kelami was PU and Zabenz F, Idle Talk was 12th, Atreea 10th and Cerium in 5th was just 1 length short of astoundingly grabbing 4th place.
#345
February 3rd, 2010 16:54
from the entries ive seen i will be tempted by another bet on BLACK APALACHI with the winter were having the race could well be the type of race this horse runs and if it rains i will fancy the winner will be black apalachi, but if the ground stays good then i would have to go for the 2008 winner comply or die if he is right at the weights he will be tough to beat,
#346
February 3rd, 2010 16:59
Nick Mannion, can I put it to you, just a theory of mine, that in the last ten years or so top weight OR has generally been in the 150′s ‘ish. Win, or nearly win a Welsh National and you’re OR goes up. If top weight OR is at least 161 then Dream Alliance has a great chance because he wouldn’t be carrying over 11st. Party Politics, 2nd in Welsh National, carried a measley 10st 7lbs off an OR152 because, luckily, top weight had an OR167. In a National ten years later he’d have had 11st 6lbs ‘ish and would have been lucky to place. Earth Summit won Welsh National and only carried 10st 5lbs in GN because top weight had a high OR.
#347
February 3rd, 2010 17:01
Dress it up how you like, but the Welsh National is actually the best trial for the Grand National itself.
Obviously it doesnt produce the winner every year (that would be too easy!) but over the last 20 years (including the 2009, 2007 and 2005 GN Winners) it prodcues more winners than any other race. 7 of the last 17 GN winners had placed in the Welsh National at some point.
Can anybody point me to another race that produces more winners? (ill give you a clue – there isn’t one)
So to suggest Dream Alliance cant win this year because of his Welsh National run is a little foolish in my eyes.
Granted its hard to do the double – as Silver Birch said, only 2 in the last 30 years have done it- but that doesnt mean he cant.
Out of interest, I also cant find another race that has been won by 2 different GN winners in the same season as their GN winner, in the past 30 years or so. Anybody care to find one?
The only that comes close that I can see is the Irish National – won by Numbersixvalverde in 2005 (won at Aintree 12 months later) and Bobbyjo in 1998 (ditto)
The Welsh National is a mighty fine trial.
#348
February 3rd, 2010 17:03
Cracking work the Stayer. Thanks
#349
February 3rd, 2010 17:12
Sorry Dan but cant agree. The trends can’t go back further than 10 yrs before they become ‘ancient’ re how the sport moves on.
I accept that the WN has thrown up GN winners in last 10 yrs BUT NOT in same year/season and as my quick stats had shown…too many placed horses who went on to same seasons GN did v poor. Fact.
It is a SAME SEASON stat NOT a continuation over seasons to come stat.
Thats why with DA I might give it a swerve this year is all…not foolish… just a trend as pointed out.
#350
February 3rd, 2010 17:45
Also if you take last years WN (08) look at the reversal between Cornish Sett (2nd) and Mon Mome (a distant 8th) come Aintree.
Welsh Nat is a good trial for future Nationals yes…same season pointer…no can’t agree.
#351
February 3rd, 2010 17:53
Bloody hell, now that is swings and roundabouts! I suppose atleast you could argue all got away with winning in weight terms as something ran in the GN with a massive OR which doesn’t seem to happen now?
In terms of winning both in same seaon, Earth Summit and Corbiere had perfect weight, I remember my 50p ew, ah. Its as we all think really, better if top3 a previous year, not impossible however not been done by horse with 10st12 that DA will get. Still great pointer, one of the best trials, can’t ignore that, and I’m a dreamer!
Showlad, quite recently and for several years cut off was 134, but think it likely to stay higher as I think less will pull out and theres more entrants with higher ORs, but with my lack of spreadsheets based knowledge, thats my guess showlad.
Think its time to regroup, ask if anyone has analysed ‘X’ properly, like you said guess who is no.80 on our list, sorry I can’t help not written a thing down!
I need to focus on traditional lower weighted horses personally, I love so many borderline horses again! KJ 10 bets here I come!
Think we got some good horses that are going to miss out, that are better than last years low OR bunch. Hope Trabolgan gets in with 137, was thinking trainer should give him one of those stem cell ‘magic’ boosters!
#352
February 3rd, 2010 17:56
Erics Charm should be in that ‘top5 Hennessy etc’ list.
#353
February 3rd, 2010 18:01
Cross reference ‘top5 Hennessy, top 3 Irish Scots Welsh National, top 2 in Becher, Topham, Hunter chase over GN fences and 3 wins at 24f or more including 1 at 28f or more’ with a 47% chase win/place strike place 1 year before, 17/17, and things get interesting.
#354
February 3rd, 2010 18:10
oh your killing me Crisp, percentages are my school days black spot.
#355
February 3rd, 2010 18:23
The risks of AP betting!! d’oh
Erics Charm needs to put in a decent effort at Haydock, he can’t seem to go LH for toffee
I’ve got so many doubts over the front of the market. As much as DA is a great trends horse and it would be a great story if he won, i doubt he can handle the ground
My top 3 have changed somewhat based on the entries
1. Royal County Star
2. Oodachee
3. Ollie Magern
Anyone interested in Trust Fund?
#356
February 3rd, 2010 18:28
The Stayer: what do the figures in your very welcome list mean (they always get displayed strange dont they when posted) I can work some out but not all.
crisp 73: “Cross reference ‘top5 Hennessy, top 3 Irish Scots Welsh National, …… and things get interesting.”
crisp 73: who does that leave? I’ll spend all night wondering or spending hours working it out. I was planning to do it anyway but if you have the answer i would be grateful for the info.
#357
February 3rd, 2010 18:30
Post up then Crisp…
Sorry Nick totally with Daniel on Welsh stats. Double can be done, place and win same year can also be done. Stats favour doing well next year but this stat is no means strong enough for me to doubt DA this year. I am glad of his Welsh win this year after 2 years out and he is peaking at the right time. This in no way is sme 99 year French bred stat lol, that was blown out of the water last year anyway. Each to their own perceptions and thus bets..
There is a shiny, almost glistening Gold Star that awaits first team member who posts up projected Top 80 in weights so we can discount rest of field.
#358
February 3rd, 2010 19:03
Found this if that helps Showlad, sorry, its like blankety blank, got to fill in all the gaps and I have no time now
in trouble here again! gotta keep it in check, maybe this is why Brian, Brody and Topcat to name but a few, aren’t back, they’ve been banned!
sorry I’ve gone all silly, too excited. Hope I’m allowed out later to play…bye!
can’t remember what the XXs andYs were, winners and placers? have removed NRs so far…
can I have an outline of a star Showlad, to colour in later
note if Notre Pere runs OR 163 so -2lb,
11.10 161 Mon Mome
11.09 160
11.08 159
11.07 158 Air Force One
11.06 157 Snowy Morning, Cloudy Lane,
11.05 156
11.04 155 Y Don’t Push It, Black Apalachi
11.03 154 Comply or Die,
11.02 153 War of Attrition
………………………
11.01 X 152 Y
11.00 X 151 Possol, Dream Alliance, Cane Brake, Nozic, Darkness, Ollie Magern,
10.13 150 My Will
………………………
10.12 X 149 Y Big Fella Thanks, Tricky Trickster, Joe Lively,
10.11 X 148 Y Niche Market, Backstage, Beat the Boys, Gone To Lunch
10.10 X 147 Can’t Buy Time,
10.09 X 146 Preists Leap,
10.08 X 145 State of Play, King Johns Castle, Kornati Kid, Chelsea Harbour, Vic Venturi
10.07 XX 144 Y
10.06 X 143
10.05 X 142 Y
10.04 X 141 Maljimar, Iris de Balme, Mr Pointment, Arbor Supreme
……………………..
10.03 X 140 Y Hello Bud
10.02 139 Y Offshore Account, Irish Invader Knowhere Beroni
10.01 138 Y Silver Birch, Coe
10.00 XX 137 Trabolgan, Brooklyn Brownie,
……………………..
09.13 136 Y
09.12 135 Irish Raptor, Oodachee, Butlers Cabin
09.11 134 Over The Creek
09.10 133 Cerium, Always Waining, A new story
09.09.132 Ballytrim
09.08.131 L’Aventure
#359
February 3rd, 2010 19:17
A flicker of an outline of a Gold Star is winging it’s way to you KJ
Of course we need a team star to come through and post the projected Top 80 weights..I wonder who it will be…
#360
February 3rd, 2010 19:25
pointed out elsewhere//air force one is rated 153
#361
February 3rd, 2010 19:26
i’d still say top weight is likely to be 161/162
and i’m going to add
7lbs added to the Thyestes, Becher winner (maybe Topham winner)
3lbs added to the horses that finished the Becher
4lbs added to the Irish horses, not to have run in the UK
3-4 lbs maybe to the 2nd/3rd of the Topham
Wasnt sure that Royal County Star would get an entry, but i do like him – is this likely to be Ruby’s mount? Also ran at Cheltenham so is unlikely to go up anymore in the weights
#362
February 3rd, 2010 19:30
Does this mean you’re going to do the list then TC?
Go on be our Hero, get us ahead of the game and leave us with the only 80 we really need to look at!!
#363
February 3rd, 2010 19:36
Alright, i’ll have a go. I’ll add those weights and try to compress the top of the weights, couple of hours then.
#364
February 3rd, 2010 19:41
Thanks kj. How accurate do people rate these weights as i am about to place some money?
Been doing some analysis and my fancies in order of preference based on my weights predictions at this very moment are:
1-Snowy Morning 11.06? I have him carrying around 10-13
2-My Will 10-13? I had have around 11-03
3-State Of Play 10-08? I have him around 11-00
4-Dream Alliance 11-00? Prob about right. Rated about 10-08 plus extra weight for winning Welsh Nat. Not sure about the ground with this one.
5-Niche Market 10-11? This looks bang on
6-Hello Bud 10-03? I have him around 10-08 to 10-10 depending on Scots win. Not sure he is quite good enough tho and a bit old.
Dosage of DA and NM suit but top 3 picks have been there and done well and also have exceptional experience and jumping ability, not to mention class. All have top OR’s of 160+! but are running of a lower mark, especially Snowy. Another good fact is my top 3 picks are 10 year olds and DA and NM are 9.
It is a bit lottery no matter what, but i am reasonably confident ‘at least’ one of these will run a absolute blinder.
Still really fancy Gone to lunch if he runs…
A(big!)long shot for a place would be Coe on about 10-08.
Also, what ever happened to Iris de Balme?
#365
February 3rd, 2010 19:44
TC I truly mean it – on behalf of all the team – thanks
#366
February 3rd, 2010 19:47
Hi Domi. Iris intends to run in GN if prep goes OK, was running at cancelled Doncaster meet at weekend.
#367
February 3rd, 2010 20:03
just checking back in, sneaky me, gotta say thanks to TC for working on it, haven’t seen one elsewhere, so gold medal I think. I’ll be thinking of you while I do some of my chores, which is worse!? hmm,
note the skeletal list I put up is a little inaccurate too, Snowy down to 147 mark, Air force One… Butlers not entered. Good luck
#368
February 3rd, 2010 20:03
Thanks Showlad. Yes TC that list would be excellent.
I’m sure everyone already knows but just in-case you did’nt, Snowy Morning is 66-1 on Ladbrokes!
I just put down £7.50 for a potential £500 win. That is a cracking bet if you ask me.
#369
February 3rd, 2010 20:54
11 12 163 Albertas Run
11.10 161 Mon Mome, Notre Pere, Madison du Berlais, Taranis, Vic Venturi,
11.09 160
11.08 159
11.07 158 Our Vic
11.06 157
11.05 156
11.04 155 Y Black Apalachi, Casey Jones, Don’t Push It, Joe Lively, Made in Taipan
11.03 154 Comply or Die,
11.02 153 Air Force One
………………………
11.01 X 152 Y Glenfinn Captain, Siegemaster, Star de Mohaison,
11.00 X 151 Cloudy Lane, Darkness, Dream Alliance, Nozic, Possol,
10.13 150 Deutshland, My Will, Pablo du Charmil,
………………………
10.12 X 149 Y Big Fella Thanks, Tricky Trickster, Ballyholland, Cane Brake, Ollie Magern, Preists Leap, War of Attrition,
10.11 X 148 Y Niche Market, Backstage, Gone To Lunch, Beat the Boys, Irish Invader, Le Beau Bai, Roulez cool,
10.10 X 147 Can’t Buy Time, Conna Castle, Equus Maximus, Ellerslie George, Seven is my Number, Snowy Morning
10.09 X 146 King Johns Castle
10.08 X 145 State of Play, Character Building, Chelsea Harbour, Kornati Kid, Royal County Star,
10.07 XX 144 Y Arbor Supreme, Follow The Plan, Lennon, One Cool Cookie
10.06 X 143 Ballyfitz, Bible Lord, Dooneys Gate, Hello Bud, Erics Charm, Razor Royale,
10.05 X 142 Y Beroni, Jayo, Kilcrea Castle, Maljimar, New Alco, Palypso de Creek,
10.04 X 141 Iris de Balme, Mr Pointment,, Irish Raptor, The Package, Trust Fund,
……………………..
10.03 X 140 Y, Duers, Offshore Account,
10.02 139 Y Abbeybraney, , Cerium, Flintoff, Oodachee, Knowhere, Mumbles Head, Parsons Legacy,
10.01 138 Y Coe, Parsons Pistol, Whinstone Boy
10.00 XX 137 Trabolgan, Faasel, Officier de Reserve, Silver Birch,
……………………..
09.13 136 Y Chief Dan George, Piraya,
09.12 135 Ballytrim, Kilbeggan Blade,
09.11 134 Anothercoppercoast, Boychuk, Over the Creek, Sizing Australia, Treacle,
09.10 133 Galant Nuit, Pak Jack,
09.09.132 Belon Gale, Old Benny
09.08.131 Kings Advocate,
09 07 130 According to John, Chiaro, Merigo, Pomme Tiepy,
Not Added
Louping d’ainey – anyone know much about him?
I doubt Alberta’s Run will run, so have kept the weights the same.
A lot at the top rated very close to 161 and I expect PS to drop a pound or two off them
Not sure if SoP and SM will get the Aintree treatment
On paper it does look a strong renewal, BUT there are a lot in there looking like doubtful stayers and very lightly raced horses. Won’t be touching any Strong Gale horses either (WoA). Think the Irish have got wise to Phil Smith and they have got a huge chance this year.
#370
February 3rd, 2010 20:55
Prizes for guessing the starting line-up
1. Mon Mome
2. Madison du Berlais
3. Vic Venturi
4. Black Apalachi
5. Don’t Push It
6. Joe Lively
7. Comply or Die
8. Glenfinn Captain
9. Cloudy Lane
10. Dream Alliance
11. Darkness
12. Nozic
13. Possol
14. My Will
15. Big Fella Thanks
16. Ballyholland
17. Cane Brake
18. Ollie Magern
19. Preists Leap
20. Tricky Trickster
21. War of Attrition
22. Backstage
23. Irish Invader
24. Niche Market
25. Roulez Cool
26. Can’t Buy Time
27. Conna Castle
28. Ellerslie George
29. King Johns Castle
30. Character Building
31. Chelsea Harbour
32. Royal County Star
33. State of Play
34. Arbor Supreme
35. Hello Bud
36. Razor Royale
37. Kilcrea Castle,
38. Maljimar,
39. Palypso de Creek
40. Irish Raptor
41. Mr Pointment,,
42. , Iris de Balme,
43. The Package,
44. Trust Fund,
141 likely to be cut off point?
#371
February 3rd, 2010 20:59
have added weights on;
7lbs added to the Thyestes, Becher winner, Topham winner
3lbs added to the horses that finished the Becher
4lbs added to the Irish horses, not to have run in the UK
4lbs addedto the 2nd/3rd of the Topham
#372
February 3rd, 2010 21:11
Brilliant work TC. In next post I’ll have tidied your fab list up a little for ease of reading.
Do we really think Madison will run? Don’t think so myself
#373
February 3rd, 2010 21:18
great work TC, thanks agaain.
I’ve got away from duty, my knees gone! as me dad would say, too much blogging inactivity!
One thing, there is no 11st12, top weight is 11st10, so I would -2 all above.
#374
February 3rd, 2010 21:22
no.80 looks like Mumbles Head area
who are they? never heard of them mumble, mumble..
#375
February 3rd, 2010 21:25
TC’s projected weights list:
11 12 163
Albertas Run
11.10 161
Mon Mome
Notre Pere
Madison du Berlais
Taranis
Vic Venturi
11.07 158
Our Vic
11.04 155
Black Apalachi
Casey Jones
Don’t Push It
Joe Lively
Made in Taipan
11.03 154
Comply or Die
11.02 153
Air Force One
11.01 152
Glenfinn Captain
Siegemaster
Star de Mohaison
11.00 151
Cloudy Lane
Darkness
Dream Alliance
Nozic
Possol
10.13 150
Deutschland
My Will
Pablo du Charmil
10.12 149
Big Fella Thanks
Tricky Trickster
Ballyholland
Cane Brake
Ollie Magern
Preists Leap
War of Attrition
10.11 148
Niche Market
Backstage
Gone To Lunch
Beat the Boys
Irish Invader
Le Beau Bai
Roulez cool
10.10 147
Can’t Buy Time
Conna Castle
Equus Maximus
Ellerslie George
Seven is my Number
Snowy Morning
10.09 146
King Johns Castle
10.08 145
State of Play
Character Building
Chelsea Harbour
Kornati Kid
Royal County Star
10.07 144
Arbor Supreme
Follow The Plan
Lennon
One Cool Cookie
10.06 143
Ballyfitz
Bible Lord
Dooneys Gate
Hello Bud
Erics Charm
Razor Royale
10.05 142
Beroni
Jayo
Kilcrea Castle
Maljimar
New Alco
Palypso de Creek
10.04 141
Iris de Balme
Mr Pointment
Irish Raptor
The Package
Trust Fund
10.03 140
Duers
Offshore Account
10.02 139
Abbeybraney
Cerium
Flintoff
Oodachee
Knowhere
Mumbles Head
Parsons Legacy
10.01 138
Coe
Parsons Pistol
Whinstone Boy
10.00 137
Trabolgan
Faasel
Officier de Reserve
Silver Birch
09.13 136
Chief Dan George
Piraya
09.12 135
Ballytrim
Kilbeggan Blade
09.11 134
Anothercoppercoast
Boychuk
Over the Creek
Sizing Australia
Treacle
09.10 133
Galant Nuit
Pak Jack
09.09.132
Belon Gale
Old Benny
09.08.131
Kings Advocate
09 07 130
According to John
Chiaro
Merigo
Pomme Tiepy
#376
February 3rd, 2010 21:26
Was only a guess but i think MDB is 50/50. There are a few in there, that i’d think won’t go to Aintree (AFO, GTL, OV). Gigginstown are only likely to send one horse (WoA) so i’d say it’s unlikely that Siegemaster and One Cool Cookie will run.
Now that CI is not going…!! Royal County Star is fast becoming top pick, also posted his highest RPR this season in the Kerry National
#377
February 3rd, 2010 21:34
Number 40 and assured to run from above is Can’t Buy Time.
Regardless of OR etc there should still be, for varying reasons, roughly the same number of drop outs. Last year it was the 74th horse in the list, Zabenz, that made it through.
So this year, at OR of 140 (1 higher than last year’s cut off), the line would be drawn after OFFSORE ACCOUNT.
I have a feeling Trabolgan may be rated higher by Phil than his OR and he has used such creative license in the past.
#378
February 3rd, 2010 21:35
OFFSHORE LOL.
Freudian slip – still sore after Churchy’s vanishing act lol
#379
February 3rd, 2010 21:39
You are not far off TC.
Your number 40 Irish Raptor is only 4 places higher than the projected horse to be last to make the cut based on last year’s projection – Offshore Account.
I there prove to be a few less drop out – you would be bang on.
#380
February 3rd, 2010 21:56
I make number 80 on OR 137 but that’s without TC’s amendments
TC – have to agree with you that Ireland has a very strong hand this year
But Air Force One looks very dangerous off 11’02 on your list if he gets 2 or 3 runs in soon
#381
February 3rd, 2010 22:03
I have:
Snowy £15 at 66/1 = £1000
My Will £12 at 44/1 = £500
Gone to Lunch £1 at 120/1
I think these are top value considering their ability.
Wont be putting any more on unless i top up the My Will bet.
I think the favs on this board(NM & DA)are dangerous but DA prefers soft and only carried 10-1 in the Welsh Nat. I dont fancy his chances off 11 stone. NM is decent but i think SM and MW offer much better value. SM is twice the price and MW is sooo consistent plus they are both 10 and jump brilliantly.
So they will both fall at the 1st now!!! just my luck!!!
#382
February 3rd, 2010 22:06
Air Force One on BBC2 at 10:45 – KJ get your money on now!!!
#383
February 3rd, 2010 22:14
now that really made me ‘lol’ cheeky!
#384
February 3rd, 2010 22:17
Ha Ha!
#385
February 3rd, 2010 22:49
When I said it would get interesting I mean that in, my opinion, following those stats would lead us closer to the winner. I don’t know how long it would take me to work out chase win strike rates of 112 horses! Well, I’ve already got about 30 or so on a spreadsheet.
#386
February 3rd, 2010 22:54
… that should be chase win place strike rates.
#387
February 3rd, 2010 23:12
Surely Joe Lively hasn’t bee raised 6 pounds for that last performance?
#388
February 3rd, 2010 23:24
TC’s post at 19 above – just in case you are wondering:
Last 15 years GN winners.
X – a winner at this weight
Y – a winner on this OR
Lats 15 years:
Highest OR was 155 Royal Athlete in 1995(weight 10.06)
Highest weight was 11.01 Hegehunter in 2005(OR144)
#389
February 3rd, 2010 23:24
Just started looking and i have made a list of some horses with my thoughts beside them, the list isn’t complete by any sense and i know there are lots of horses missing like DA and COD etc, but thought i’d post it anyway.
Has anyone any thought on any of these horse.
Snowy Morning (have money on only cause it 66/1 wit lads and everyone else 50s)
mumbles head (anyone know anything about this),
trust fund (anyone know anything about this as well, looks good but needs some runs i think),
our vic,
vic venturi (probably two much weight though)
whinstone boy (looks like he would rather have a bog though)
the package (too young?????????)
LE BEAU BAI (seems to stay well but maybe to young)
KILCREA CASTLE (has anyone any thought on this horse think he looks good, has come 2nd in a grade 3 3 mile race)
ABBEYBRANEY (good age, likely low weight, won over 24f)
ACCORDING TO JOHN (came 3rd to denman in sun alliance in 2007 – not bad feat i think)
#390
February 3rd, 2010 23:43
Trust Fund is the one that fascinates me, i put him up 5lb in line with last years Grand Sefton winner. Does he have the class? no top 3 in a class 1, but he’s one of a few to have form over the fences. Considering how short in the betting Backstage is, i find him really interesting. He’s 12 but has had his fair share of injuries and we’ve only just seen the best of him last year.
Has he been pointing? Will probably have to watch a re-run of the foxhunters again
#391
February 4th, 2010 00:27
Hi everyone just thought I’d refreshed the new year’s list and update it so it’s back in everyone’s minds.
40 Niche Market
29 Church Island (non runner)
28 Dream Alliance
26 Hello Bud
21 Gone To Lunch
17 Black Apalachi
11 Comply Or Die
10 Trabolgan
10 Big Fella Thanks
10 My Will
09 Snowy Morning
08 Milo De Beauchene (non runner)
06 Don’t Push It
06 Siegemaster
06 Parson’s Legacy
05 War Of Attrition
05 Character Building
05 Possol
04 Casey Jones
03 Backstage
02 Cane Brake
02 Jass (non runner)
02 Over The Creek
01 Mr Pointment
#392
February 4th, 2010 00:29
Agree that Niche Market looks very very solid – he’s won the Irish and ran up with Denman for most of the Hennessy (that has for me to be the best piece of form on show all season in the context of this race and the likely weights) plus he has been campaigned against decent horses virtually all his career
Plus these four which should be bigger prices:
Cane Brake
One Cool Cookie
Royal County Star
Snowy Morning
Hopefully all will be <OR 150 in the weights
#393
February 4th, 2010 00:46
Pablo can you enlighten me re One Cool Cookie, his track record seems very unnattractive to me, but he seems a bit of a fav at times on here.
Could you post up the Pablo once over please…
#394
February 4th, 2010 00:48
TC so is the Foxhunters run over the GN fences?
Others are of course the GN, the Becher, Topham and Grand Sefton, ye?
#395
February 4th, 2010 01:04
Only one worry with NM, hope his recent work hasn’t left big mark, do you need to keep this one ticking even so? wouldn’t like to see this one at cheltenham?
Lots of other worries, too many horses!
and too many I like not just with high or low weight issues, but now price! don’t know if I can hold out til weights day compadres…Snowy @66-1, too good to pass on even if it means utter torture watching him jump!
#396
February 4th, 2010 01:50
think 8 horses going to be a struggle this year, honestly, its ridiculous and surely statistically must be less profitable, only 4 places &1 winner however many you back!
Anyone got any stats on this? too many variables? going to be a real issue this year, knowing where to stop.
Anyone fancy a go at this conundrum…’ a starter for 10′- even stakes, say £10 e/w, all at 25-1, you don’t win but get 2 placers, a very possible scenario I think,.. question is how few horses can you back to break even? ha, not very positive thought I know, not a proper gamblers question ey!
I know what Clement Freud would’ve said!
well I like my e/w fun,. places helped me claw back some of my loses on R**** last year. Think I’m going in pretty even stakes this time after last year!
#397
February 4th, 2010 01:59
6 is the real limit isn’t it, not a big hope of keeping to that this year. Going to be winning or loosing proper this time.
#398
February 4th, 2010 02:21
Knacked on way to bed but made myself get some of those crazy 66s odds on Snowy at Ladbrokes – CRAZY ODDS glad I did!! Watch that plummet tomorrow!
#399
February 4th, 2010 02:25
me too, 1st bets on.. Snowy and Dream couldn’t wait out tmw and didn’t wanna miss it!
#400
February 4th, 2010 07:44
OCC – all depends on the weight & the noises that the trainer makes on weights day – I like his pedigree and he has some decent bits of form (and one of only a few with RCS & VV to make any show in Irish off >11’0 last year) but there are some worries such as right-handed runs and no key race – just thought he might be a decent price on the day given the hype at the top of the market – but its entirely possible that he won’t even run so no bets yet
#401
February 4th, 2010 08:42
Looks Like Joe Lively raised 5lbs for his run last week . Handicappers taking his revenge . Joe will not be winning the Nat off a rate of 155 methinks . looks like theyve blow it with this one which means its looking more and more as if the two main trends horses have to be Dream Alliance and Niche Market . Everything else seems to be falling by the wayside
The top 3 Il ike at the mo after analysing the entries are
1. Niche Market
2. Dream Alliance
3. My Will
Nice Outsiders – Cant buy time , Maljimar
#402
February 4th, 2010 08:43
To suggest anything older than 10 years old stats wise is ancient, is also foolish to me!!
I also bet I could rule out any horse you could chose to pick out and say “he cant win the national, because no horse that has won/placed in race X that he won/placed this year has won the national in the last 10 years!”
I dont disagree it’s hard to win both, but there’s no way anybody is going to convince me it is sensible to rule out Dream Alliance BECAUSE he won the Welsh National in December.
#403
February 4th, 2010 09:19
Just to illustrate my point;
No horse had won the Eider in the same year as a National for god knows how many years before Comply or Die
No horse had placed in the Cross Country at Cheltenham and won the National EVER (I think) before Silver Birch did it
No horse had won the Bobbyjo (a hard race in late Feb) in the same year as the National for donkeys years before Hedgehunter
No horse had won the National having been placed in the same season’s Becher for god knows how long before Amberleigh House
No horse had won the Kerry National and Grand National in the same seaosn EVER (I think) before MOntys Pass did it
No horse had done the Welsh National/Grand National double for more than 10 years when Earth Summit did it
No horse had placed in the Gold Cup and won the National in the same season for donkeys years when Rough Quest did it
…
Do you see what im trying to say?
#404
February 4th, 2010 09:37
Guys i’m going to start with an apology this morning. I tried to do some analysis on the 30/30 stat yesterday but I did it in a rush so made a couple of mistakes and didn’t explain what was going on. Apologies for the mis-information.
Below are the 31 horses that meet the 30/30 stat (I think). The following horses have all have a top 5 Hennessy/top 3 Irish, Scots Welsh National/top 2 in race over GN fences. The exception is WOA who as a Gold Cup winner has shown the required level of class/ability in a staying chase (which this stat is really getting at).
2506-P Air Force One346 8 153 -4
151U-0 Black Apalachi77 11 — -4
43391- Character Building394 10 145 —
P072-0 Comply Or Die147 11 154 -4
UPP/21 Dream Alliance103 9 151 142 160
3/52-P Flintoff103 9 139 -4
2-285P Gone To Lunch103 10 148 154 162
1-735U Hello Bud103 12 140 129 148
31314/ Iris De Balme714 10 — —
01-4U5 Irish Raptor126 11 135 76 130
2/7-79 King Johns Castle77 11 — 130 143
P1-713 Le Beau Bai103 7 148 138 151
81-324 Madison Du Berlais70 9 162 153 165
81-P34 Mon Mome77 10 153 150 157
/6220- Mr Pointment406 11 — —
53-275 My Will125 10 150 135 154
81-835 Niche Market102 9 148 149 157
2-1F54 Notre Pere102 9 — 172 176
F2-395 Ollie Magern70 12 149 95 161
825-05 Oodachee245 11 — 108 122
342/8P Over The Creek75 11 — -4
/P228P Pak Jack104 10 130 129 135
1PF-50 Parsons Legacy119 12 139 68 118
11U36F Royal County Star120 11 — 125 152
6/33P5 Royal Rosa80 11 123 59 129
F-26C2 Silver Birch69 13 — 110 135
/144-P State Of Play133 10 145 -4
1/P6-4 Trabolgan120 12 137 129 142
P/11-1 Trust Fund339 12 136 -4
-21150 Vic Venturi77 10 — 150 161
P23041 War Of Attrition79 11 — 108 153
The numbers before the name are form, then we have days since last run (if they don’t run before the National), Age, OR, TS and RPR.
I went straight for this stat as it’s the one that isn’t going to change before Aintree – the Irish National is only 5 days before big one so whatever happens there will probably not affect this year’s race. It also reduces the field to a very managable number straight away.
I know we shouldn’t be too dogmatic about these things but all of the last 30 winners have hit this stat so at the moment I would say the winner is likely to come from the list above.
#405
February 4th, 2010 09:52
Think we get the point there DE
I am only going to use the stats thst i feel are relevant to the national, of which s/r arent one for many reasons. The point about big races such as the Welsh national and the Hennessy, is that they are such gruelling contests and how much does it take out of a young/inexperienced chaser. DA failed to complete a start after being 2nd in the Hennessy, so how much has the WN taking out of him and has he left his season at Chepstow? The last horse to have copleted the GN+WN double was Earth Summit who was vastly experienced over fences. Same goes for this years Hennessy, clearly taken it’s toll on a lot of horses, and based on his last run, it’s certainly had it’s say on NM. Both DA and NM need good preps and whilst the horses who perform so well in the major races have plenty of ability, it’s not till the following season we see them perform well in the national. Been the case for the last 3 winners -also Hedgehunter.
Going to have to put up my top 6 soon as i’m not around whilst weights are out, it’s looking unlikely that NM and DA will be in that list, as currently i would have no confidence in backing either
#406
February 4th, 2010 09:57
A perfectly valid and well reasoned argument TC!
#407
February 4th, 2010 10:38
Read an article about Maljimar which said that he can seriously boil over before a race and the National could completely tip him over the edge with the parade etc. When he came second at Cheltenham he somehow managed to stay quite calm, so , if he runs might be worth seeing how he handles the preliminaries and having a top up bet quite late on if he looks ok.
#408
February 4th, 2010 11:34
Yes I see exactly what you are trying to say.
You dont wish to accept the trend re the WN. As my quick stats had shown no horse places/wins the race and goes on to perform in the SAME SEASON GN. It is a trend and trends can be overturned but it is still a factual trend. Yes we can all list many other races that are also not good pointers to GN (trends…which you appear to accept if they are useful to your arguement it seems…).
Am not saying DA can’t win the GN or run very well, all I did was point out the trend re SAME SEASON WN winners/placed horses and the GN (rather foolishly apparently….).
Also with the 10 year point. No sport stands still. Who would have thought that Leeds Utd would be wallowing in Div 3 and Hull City(Div 4 ten yrs ago) in the Prem if you look at the stats/tables from 10 years ago…
With racing and the GN many things change from the fixtures (length of and when preps are run…Mids Nat as one example) the quality of the field in the GN and its vast over subscription re entries and many other innovations re training and prep for GN (could you have seriously seen Red Rum or West Tip having a spin over hurdles as prep??).
To conclude, there is nothing foolish about pointing out the factual trend re the WN as I did. There is nothing foolish about accepting the change in any sport, and here the GN and NH racing, so rendering much from 10+ years ago as not worthy of serious consideration. But there is something a tad one eyed about not accepting something that you somehow feel might ‘diss’ your selection and taking it personally…Some may call that foolish…
As a PS I still havent found too much that jumps out at me so DA would be high on my current list. I liked the way Beat The Boys won The Rehersal but it follows a win with a real stinker (my view is NTD runs them too quickly) and under the weight last year Comply or Die ran the best race of those back this year but will wait for the weights and the preps later this month. And if somone offered me 40′s for DA for 2011 GN would take it like a shot!!
End of perhaps?
#409
February 4th, 2010 11:51
Hi All have posted up the MAIN KEY STATS again.
Slight change last time to the 30/30 stat was to include Top 4 in the actual GN itself – which of course was a must (we can’t go top 3 in Irish/Scots/Welsh and only Top 2 in the Big One itself lol).
1. OR 135+.
2. Ran in 10+ chases and won 1 of them in last 10 chases 16/16.
3. Won a chase of £17,000. 17/17
4. Age 8-12. 62/62
5. Top 4 chases or top 3 hurdles (starting from May). 43/43
6. Prep runs 2-8. 28/28
7. Weeks since last ran 2-7. 28/28
8. Weight below 11-04. 27/27
9. Top 3 class 1 chase. 25/25
10. Won at 3 miles or more. 39/39 (extra info: 32/39 placed at 28f or more, 3 of the 7 that weren’t didn’t race beyond 27f anyway)
11. Placed at 3.5 miles.
12. RPR of 144+ (overall). 20/20
13. RPR of 141+ (LH). 20/20
14. No more than 2 falls in career. Frequency is only 12/16*
15. POSSIBLY MOST IMPORTANT: First 5 in Hennessy or Top 4 in GN itself or Top 3 in Scots/Irish or Welsh National or Top 2 over Grand National fences in another race or 3 wins at 3 miles+ including one win at 3.5 miles+. This Stat is 30/30.
16. Weight has to be in range of 12lb from bottom weight on day.
17. Top 3 in previous 3 runs.
18. Top Speed (ts) of 128+.
19. Strike rate: Let’s just say s/r overall minimum is 45% whatever (whether chase alone, or chase/hurdle combo)
20. Win & Place SR of 47%+ @ April 30 the preceding year 16/16
#410
February 4th, 2010 11:55
Good call Maureen, will certainly hold off. Could hopefully drift from 40s now, not as good value as snowy last night!
Have they tried those mega earplugs? are they allowed to take a pony on parade? was it just luck at cheltenham or did they do something right!
Already biten all my nails off with snowy, now this!
Nice round up guys of the welsh nat/ DA/ NM/ same year thang, its the whole dilemma in a nutshell.
Nick without healthy arguement, we merely brush the surface, when I asked the question about the same year, I wanted full answrs, arguements for and against, you’ve all given that fully, its been the best disscussion in ages!
stats are stats in the end, ( but who started this ‘end of’ phrase its so annoying, but point taken lets wind this fully explored one up!)
I backed DA last night, still have doubts, not about the same year thing as much as his low jumping style translating to aintree! end of?
#411
February 4th, 2010 11:55
Yes Nick, concluded lol.
I think people were not rejecting your Welsh national same season stat, because of course on a smaller occurence it has been achieved twice already and with DAs great claims they certainly felt he could be in the minority who could achieve it again.
Niche and DA stake GREAT claims but for me it certainly doesn’t stop there.
#412
February 4th, 2010 12:00
See the point about the Welsh national, but perhaps it is because it is often [I think] won by a young up and coming chaser, therefore it takes them longer to get over it? Perhaps a slightly older, more mature horse would recover quicker, and it depends how hard a race the horse had. Given that State of Play runs well fresh and is being aimed at the National, along with the fact that they there’s a reason for his pure run last time, I can’t resist the 33/1 available. Especially as they said that he really took to the place [unlike My Will who didn't].
#413
February 4th, 2010 12:01
Stayer your 30/30 stat list includes the other criterion to qualify for it, yes? The 3 wins at 24f inc 1 win at 28f.
The full 30/30 is:
First 5 in Hennessy or Top 4 in GN itself or Top 3 in Scots/Irish or Welsh National or Top 2 over Grand National fences in another race or 3 wins at 3 miles+ including one win at 3.5 miles+. This Stat is 30/30.
I agree with common sense too. I would add Beat the Boys to list with 5 24f wins inc 2 at 26f. Would we really discount him because of not winning at 2 extra f when he’s won 5 chases at 24f +?
#414
February 4th, 2010 12:10
Have you noticed something really intriguing re Beat The Boys profile more in depth?
His failures come when when Nigel Twiston Davies runs him just DAYS after a good win. But when he actually gives the horse a break he has followed that win on EVERY OCCASION with another win or place. Bodes very well if he gets a rest before the GN. Lets hop Nigel surely sees this too..
#415
February 4th, 2010 12:14
It seems Nick, given your final paragraph, we dont actually disagree that much!
I was suggesting it was foolish to say he couldnt win or that the Welsh National wasnt a good trial.
I dont think I was twisting the stats to suit my argument – I was pointed out that following your reasoning, you wouldnt have got many winners over the last 20 years of the national because you will have been rulling them out!
I think the ‘how far back do you go’ argument has been done to death before, so I wont bring that one up again, save to say I like to go back more than 10, for any race, not just this one, and then decide how much weight to give to more recent trends over older ones.
Dream Alliance isnt MY PICK either, just to clarify!
#416
February 4th, 2010 12:25
About the Welsh National debate, I too question the merits of one race. For example the Derby winner has won this race or that race and the following year everyone is looking at the same race again for answers. However this site suggests a number of key races for the national, each one test for class and stamina.
#417
February 4th, 2010 12:39
Showlad we had a late one last night lol, got my first bets on at 2:22 ha ha!
gotta go now
enjoy
Just gotta remember how I talked myself out of MM last year and then stuck to it like many others, because he raced 4m in heavy with 11st12 2 wks before! the stat of ‘if it races at or after cheltenham it has NO chance of winning’ oh dear.
Maureen, SOP is interesting again, could get couple of pounds less, upto phil and his aintree factors!
Not backing My Will without Ruby is my rule and even then unsure he has will to win. My feeling is both could place again, but so could 10 others. Not simple this year is it. Just gotta ask yourself, ‘Do you feel Lucky!’
#418
February 4th, 2010 12:42
Re: State of Play – whilst I would say you would fancy him to get round and prehaps be in the first 6 or so, I just cant see him winning on the back of 4 months off the racetrack (they have said he will go straight there for certain) AND carrying 11_04 ish or upwards.
That said, if you are a trader, it would be smart money to take some 33 now, with a view to laying at 14s or so come raceday – he will almost certainly line up and given his run last year, he is bound to be in the top 5-6 in the market.
#419
February 4th, 2010 12:57
A lot of trainers putting horses in the race as a bit of an afterthought, but a few really want this race; State of Play, Character Building, Dream Alliance, Black Apalachi and possibly Cloudy Lane [is the handicapper ever going to give him a break?]. I’d say this is going to be the most difficult National ever to find the winner of, which also makes it the most fascinating! So, at the moment I’m just backing horses that I’m pretty sure are [all being well with the horse] going to run.
#420
February 4th, 2010 13:17
Admin: Good point Maureen. Could you please start at thread ‘Intended to run’ so that we can post up news and press reports etc when a trainer/owner declares the likelihood of their horse running? Would be a great help to keep abreast of the intendees.
#421
February 4th, 2010 13:38
Not sure if that helps; backed a horse of JP’s a few years ago that they were waxing lyrical about in the run up to the race, and next thing I knew it wasn’t running; not due to injury..just wasn’t running. A friend of mine wrote to Philip Hobbs years ago and complained on my behalf that a horse entered for the race didn’t run, and he just replied that if you don’t enter you can’t run. I think a lot of the time it’s the trainer wanting the horse to run and the owners disagreeing. [I'd actually only put 50 pence on the horse anyway!]. It’s all part of the fun in the run up to race..reading between the lines!
#422
February 4th, 2010 14:07
I’am of to the coffee shop this afternoon(lucky me I retired early so can indulge myself like this) to have a very long detailed look at The Stayer’s 30/30 stats list and then looking at other key trends/price etc (repsoted by Showlad) and will report back some time if I ever reach a conclusion. The fisrt two are easy and are now for sure in my new top six or so but the other four or so – now thats where it gets hard.
1. Dream Alliance
1. Nich Market
3. ?
4. ?
5. ?
6. ?
I keep going hot and then cold about Snowy Morning (despite a nice price), My Will, State Of Play and some others – its doing my head in but I hope to sort this puzzle out soon.
#423
February 4th, 2010 14:37
By my reckoning, Stayer’s list can become, with only the most feelting of glances;
Character Building
Dream Alliance
Flintoff
Gone To Lunch
Hello Bud
Iris De Balme
Irish Raptor
King Johns Castle
Mr Pointment
My Will
Niche Market
Over The Creek
Pak Jack
Parsons Legacy
Royal County Star
State Of Play
Trabolgan
Trust Fund
War Of Attrition
And that really is with only a fleeting glance – heaps of those havent run yet this season (CB, Iris De Balme) or have got far from ideal profile (Irish Raptor having fallen 6 times in his career, including over the aintree fences more than once)
#424
February 4th, 2010 14:52
If Trabolgan gets any sort of prep run in him between now and April, he will have to be of huge interes. Even if he goes up 8lb or so in the weights for a win between now and weights day, he will still be carrying less than 11 stone.
For a horse that won a Hennessy with 11_12, I would venture that would seem a shade light!!
#425
February 4th, 2010 14:59
Daniel,
Funny you should post that up because I have been trying to reduce the 31 to a more manageable number and this is what I have come up with:
Age (62/62) aged 8-12 which eliminates Le Beau Bai(7) and Silver Birch(13)
3m+ win (39/39) rules out King John’s Castle
Top 3 class 1 (25/25) eliminates Irish Raptor and Trust Fund
Class 1/2 win >£17k (17/17) rules out Flintoff, Oodachee, Royal Rosa
Won one of last 10 chases (??/??) – eliminates My Will and Ollie Magern
Seasonal form – Top 3 chase or top 4 hurdle (43/43) rules out quite a few horses so we end up being left with the following:
Dream Alliance
Hello Bud
Madison Du Berlais
Mon Mome
Niche Market
Notre Pere
Royal County Star
Trabolgan
Vic Venturi
War Of Attrition
Clearly with just over 2 months to go some of the eliminated horses have a chance to get that class 1 win or top 3 finish this season, but if the race were tomorrow one of the 10 horses above would be the most likely winner.
#426
February 4th, 2010 15:11
…and surely Vic Venturi would be too high in the weights, along with Mon Mome, Madison Du Berlais, Notre Pere
Which leaves us with 6!!
Easy this hey
#427
February 4th, 2010 15:15
Oh, and with the exception of Red Marauder (freak year – only C1 place was over 20f over hurdles) and Montys Pass (6 places in a C1 over 24f exactly) all of the last 25 winners had placed in a C1 chase OVER FURTHER THAN 3 MILES.
To be safe I say 3 miles or further, but I like to see over further than 3 miles ideally.
Apologies if that is repetition
#428
February 4th, 2010 15:27
Don’t think WoA should be in that list either
Madison du Berlais entered in the Albert Bartlett – A prep before the national?
Be interesting to see how Whistone Boy performs up against Glencone Marina in the 3.45
#429
February 4th, 2010 15:31
TC,
Strictly speaking WOA shouldn’t be in the list but he just looks too dangerous off his new rating (149) to dismiss readily. What’s better form at the end of the day, a Gold Cup win or Hennessy 5th?
#430
February 4th, 2010 15:40
I dont disgaree that he should be considered, but I think its worth remembering just how bad his Gold Cup was that he won!!
Beef or Salmon and Monkerhostin as Joint faves!!
No previous winner in the race,
Hedgehunter getting second,
Kicking King (the defending champ and two time King George winner) absent through injury.
The previous two Hennessy winners absent….
Now, im not one of those people who says ‘it was a poor renewal’ but in this case, I think it is worth remembering what sort of race it was that year.
#431
February 4th, 2010 15:43
Throwing every stat I can think off – still might have missed one or two though from the ‘top5 Hennessy etc’, there’s so many entered that I hadn’t considered!- and weighing up probabilities, there are three standouts.
Gone To Lunch, My Will and Dream Alliance. They are not without little black marks. Gone To Lunch hasn’t won a handicap chase, ran in four could conceiveably run in one or two more by race day while My Will has gone 11 chases without winning. Although My Will has that negative, overall, I think it’s a smaller negative than others have and if you look at when a horse won it’s most valuable chase, then you get a figure of won one of it’s last 13 chases. Not moving goalposts just looking for ‘most likely’. But will those two run?
So to Dream Alliance. Those 1 year before stats are indicating that may be next year could be his year. Only Lord Gyllene and Hedgehunter in recent times hadn’t won 3 chases by April, 1 year before and their win/place chase strike rates were in the 70% zone 1 year before. DA’s was 50%. Could be nothing and I’m certainly not putting the boot in to something I’ve backed, just a slight worry. On the whole My Will is looking very good. Just to recap,
5th in a Hennessy off 154,5th to Kauto Star in a Gold Cup just last Spring,3rd to Mon Mome off 152,(*interestingly though horses who come back and win usually do so from the same or a higher mark and not as probably is often thought, a lower more competitve mark, I’ll look into this more and post asap*) won 28f Servo Chase at Cheltenham off OR150, 11-6, 5 career runs at Aintree placed 4 fell once, raced four times at 28f or more and never unplaced. Already three good preps under his belt this season. But will Will be entered!
Can I join Systemsman in the queue for the paracetamol to ease the headache.
#432
February 4th, 2010 15:46
Just following the stats that’s all
and i am prepared to be slightly flexible with them. I do agree that he is rated way below his best, but i’m sure his best has long gone and he doesnt have any handicap form. Strong Gale is enough to put me off anyway
#433
February 4th, 2010 15:51
See TC, that’s where I struggle with WOA – look at his form (gold cup aside) and what has he done in the past 4 years?
Answer, very little. Sure you can make the odd excuse for some of the runs, throw in a few ifs and maybes, say he ran ok considering X & Y, but when you look at it as a whole, im not sure the class is quite there.
Before everybody screams at me ‘no class! he won a GC’ I suggest if you dont look at the name of that race and look who he actually beat (L’Ami in 4th as well) it doesnt quite stack up.
If he were a decent price (say 25s upwards) on the day it would be foolish not to invest ‘just in case’ but I would guess (if he runs) he will be 14/1 or smaller, so he’s of no interest to me at that sort of price.
Gotta rule some of them out, and i’m ruling him out….just.
#434
February 4th, 2010 15:55
WOA won one of the fastest Gold Cups of all time and it was run around 8s faster than all other good-ground gold cups since 2000. Only Looks Like Trouble’s win in 2000 was faster but the official going that day was good-firm. WOA has also won or been placed in other Grade 1 events including finishing 2nd to the brilliant Brave Inca (future CH winner) in a Supreme Novices hurdle. This horse is class and he looks likley to run in a National off 149. When was the last time a GC winner run in the National off 149?
#435
February 4th, 2010 15:56
I don’t think WoA can win the national and am prepared to put a line through him. The front of the market is very weak.
Another good performance from Whinstone Boy, looks as if he’s probably done enough to get into the national now
#436
February 4th, 2010 15:58
That ‘won it’s most valuable chase’ part of last post refers to last 16 winners. Won their most valuable win in their last ….
Miinnehoma 7 chases
Royal Athlete 11
Rough Quest 8
Lord Gyllene 2
Earth Summit 3
Bobbyjo 6
Papillon 8
Red Marauder 10
Bindaree 13
Montys Pass 2
Amberleigh House 13
Hedgehunter 3
Numbersixvalverde 4
Silver Birch 6
Comply Or Die 1
Mon Mome 4
Earth Summit
Bobbyjo
Papillon
Red Marauder
Bindaree
Montys Pass
Amberleigh House
Hedgehunter
Numbersixvalverde
Silver Birch
Comply Or Die
Mon Mome
#437
February 4th, 2010 15:59
Sorry about second half of post, it’s nonsense!
#438
February 4th, 2010 16:03
All valid points the Stayer (although I still dont accept it was a strong gold cup – we all know times arent always indictive over long jumps races)
However, ill flip it back at you.
In his last 5 chase starts over 3 miles or more, Hennessy 2009, JNwine Champion 2009, Punchestown GC 2009, Lexus Chase 2009, Lexus Chase 2006, what has he done to make you think he is good enough to win the big one?
a 64l beating to Denman in 11th place in the Hennessy off 154?
a 18l beating to The Listener in 3rd of 8 in the JNwine?
Pulled up 3 out in the Punchestown GC
a 20 length beating by Exotic Dancer in the Lexus (granted that’s no disgrace) in 2009
He’s been disappointing over shorter distances too since his GC win, so I dont think im being selective.
Nothing against the horse; just dont think it is one of the stand out bets at this stage, especially when he could easily still be alloted more than 11 stone.
#439
February 4th, 2010 16:08
In addition, to say “what has he done in the past 4 years?” is a little misguided. He was injured for the best part of two of those years and has had 10 runs since returning winning 3 of them (including a Gd3 chase and Gd2 hurdle), and has been placed in 3 Gd1 chases and a Gd2 chase. Not exactly shabby.
I guess we could go round in circles forever debating the one horse but I know that I would be rather with him than against him – i’m happier to back him and him not win than for me to watch him win without me having anything on.
#440
February 4th, 2010 16:14
You’re right we could go round in circles!! we obviously disagree, that’s all.
I wasnt meaning ‘what has he done in the past 4 years’ to be ignoring the fact he had been injured. I just meant since he won his GC.
I backed too many last year for fear of not getting the winner… and I still didnt get the winner!! This year im going to stick with my gut more..and my gut tells me there are others that are better.
I wouldn’t exactly fall of my chair with shock if he did though!
I have fond memories of backing him when he won his GC (was on overnight at 12s (i think) before Pricewise put him up and he became 7/1!) so would cheer if he proves me wrong!
#441
February 4th, 2010 16:17
Daniel,
With regards the Hennessy, i’m not sure he was there to win to be honest. I think he ran in the Hennessy to try and get his weight down for this (he’s been dropped to 149).
With regards the other races, I think he is a better horse on dood ground and since returning from injury most of his runs have come on soft/heavy ground. I was suprised (in a good way) when he won the other day because Powerstation and Oscar Dan Dan are decent hurdlers, with the latter looking progressive, and I thought WOA ran a very good race to beat them on heavy ground. Admittedly he was getting some weight from those horses but he showed that he clearly retains a level of ability and enthusiasm for the game.
He seems to be a horse that is polarising opinions somewhat! I can understand why some people view his form and see a horse in terminal decline but I see enough to feel that there’s life in this horse yet.
#442
February 4th, 2010 16:23
Whinstone Boy has just won; wonder if he’s the ‘dark horse’ that I’ve been worrying about? Down to 33/1 now.
#443
February 4th, 2010 16:27
Whilst he WAS a great horse WoA is not the same as he was 4 years ago. He has won an ok graded hurdle race and his price has been slashed, he hasnt done anything of note over fences in a long time. On top of that – has anyone got a record of previous Strong Gale horses in the national
Ollie Magern should be in that 30/30 stat
#444
February 4th, 2010 16:29
Happy memories indeed Daniel. I was at Cheltenham that day and backed WOA. I don’t remember too much as I got very, very drunk afterwards!
Mouse Morris has said that the National will probably be his last race so win or lose I hope he gets round in one piece and gets to enjoy a well deserved retirement.
#445
February 4th, 2010 16:37
here here
If only backing the National winner was as easy as the Gold Cup hey!
1st bet on the GC was Kicking King, then WOA the next year. Then I decided not to bet when Kauto won his 1st, was on Denman antepost at 6/1 for his, then was there in person to watch and back Kauto last year!
Going this year, and hoping Kauto can make it another succesful year for me and him both!
There is certainly some life in WOA, that’s for sure.
#446
February 4th, 2010 16:44
The Stayer: been working on your 30/30 list this afternoon but have a problem with some of the figures.
As an example you have
Parsons Legacy TS 68 PPR 118 which should be
TS 141 RPR 153
Silver Birch TS 110 PPR 135 which should be
TS 144 RPR 150
I am loking at best TS and RPR’s (up to now)are you?? – can you clarify please as i would like to slim the list down to the best 8 or so using the correct info.
#447
February 4th, 2010 16:46
I did check the trends for the Eider (going back to 03 ). 1 yr it wasnt run.
Of the 3 winners who ran in the GN they have a record of 1st, 4th and 4th.
In the last ten years no Welsh Nat winner has ever run in the SAME SEASON GN (perhaps injury, perhaps the trainers considered the WN took too much out of them…), and, as pointed out earlier, all the placed horses who did run in the SAME SEASON GN have a dreadful record.
On those trends alone I personally would take the Eider but it doesn’t mean Dream Alliance (especially as it has few recent miles on the clock after the time off) can’t buck it!!!
#448
February 4th, 2010 16:58
The Stayer on my work so far which you have also helpfully completed i agree with your list:
Dream Alliance
Hello Bud
Madison Du Berlais
Mon Mome
Niche Market
Notre Pere
Royal County Star
Trabolgan
Vic Venturi
War Of Attrition
+ Gone To Lunch should he run???
Daniel Edwards – yes can can eliminate Mon Mome, Madison Du Berlais, Notre Pere but why VV?
I make it:
Dream Alliance
Hello Bud
Niche Market
Royal County Star
Trabolgan
Vic Venturi
War Of Attrition
+ Gone To Lunch should he run??? (unlikely)
Which i will come back to in a later post with an order of merit after more study.
I just cant see much being added to the list between now and GN day.
#449
February 4th, 2010 16:59
I thought VV was rated in the high 150s? Am I wrong?
#450
February 4th, 2010 17:01
Systemsman,
The figures came from the card on the RP website on the following link. I presumed they were correct.
http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=497800&r_date=2010-04-10&big_race=Y
#451
February 4th, 2010 17:15
My mistake VV OR154 too high.
Now leaves
Dream Alliance
Hello Bud
Niche Market
Royal County Star
Trabolgan
War Of Attrition
+ Gone To Lunch should he run??? (unlikely)
Probably WOA is “over the hill” but may have to be a possible stakes saver on the day – undecided about this.
#452
February 4th, 2010 17:20
systems – Ollie Magern 2nd in the Hennessy 2004, is he being discounted because of this s/r stat
#453
February 4th, 2010 17:24
TC,
In my post earlier I discounted Ollie as he has not won one of his last 10 chases.
#454
February 4th, 2010 17:34
I agree with TC in that the top of the betting market is weak, I reckon there could be another nice priced winner. The ‘top5 Hennessy etc’ stat is looking weaker than last year. I reckon top 3 in Blue Square Gold Cup chase(produced last winner not to have Hennessy stat,Lucius) Midlands National, William Hill Trophy at Festival, and Gold Cup(4th,5th,6th place etc) could be very important. I might be wrong but I also think that thugh there are some lovely chasers entered OR136-150, not many appeal to me at the moment in the context of winning a GN.
#455
February 4th, 2010 17:36
Could put Kempton’s Racing Post in as well though I like left handed trials(bar Irish National though that is over 29f)
#456
February 4th, 2010 17:52
I use Racing Post Chase top 3 and Gold Cup top 5 as key race performances but that’s just my view
#457
February 4th, 2010 18:01
Anyone got chapter and verse about the handicapping ‘slippage’ that was used up until 2003?
When did the slippage occur and what was its basis?
I think that this may be important because the GN is a handicap after all and any changes to the handicapping system will surely have had knock-on effects on GN horses and trainers
Should we be looking only at 2003-2009 for some indicators?
#458
February 4th, 2010 18:31
Black Apalachi will not meet any of the stats because his trainer is totally focused on Aintree; horses that have fallen before do better than horses that are placed [ok twice is more than unlucky!]. I keep completely overlooking him. Going to watch last years race again.
#459
February 4th, 2010 18:45
Nice run in Thsytes from Whinston on feather weight, well done today, but surely in NO WAY near league of top contenders..
#460
February 4th, 2010 18:59
Whinstone Boy has a fantastic staying pedigree – sired by supreme leader and dam was a Buckskin mare. Wish he hadnt of won today so that they saved him for next year – hopefully they still might
#461
February 4th, 2010 19:02
No big race place or 3 x 24+ wins though…the 30/30 stat
#462
February 4th, 2010 19:26
Pablo your ‘lil ‘once overs’ are very helpful to me and I’m sure to the team too.
Am I right in thinking you’re a fan of the Irish 08 runner up Royal County Star? Could you give us your view on him please?
#463
February 4th, 2010 19:47
Yeah, i hope WB runs in the topham like Montys Pass did. He’s got a lot of staying power in his pedigree hopefully next year for him
Think i’ve become part of the RCS fan club, wasnt sure he’d get an entry. He was 12 lengths 2nd in the ’08 IN. Turned out to be some very classy horses in that race. The winner HTE ran in the national last year off 153 – its looking likely RCS is going to get 145. Get the feeling that this could be the gambled on Irish hope like many of Tony Martin’s are, going to have a top jock on board (Carberry or Walsh)
#464
February 4th, 2010 21:11
RCS – having second thoughts about him because I’m worried whether he’s good enough to win rather than place – OR 145 would be maximum really – his form in Irish National is good (another one who wasn’t disgraced carrying >11’0 in Irish National – which is very difficult to do off 145 because no horse has got placed with such an OR in the past 11 years – as far back as my records go)
Maybe Whinstone is this year’s Lord Gyllene and will win it after running up a sequence?
#465
February 4th, 2010 22:07
Royal County Star – can we really rely on this one?
Comments on his last few races:
11.12.09 “Fell 16th”
15.10.09 “mistake 6 out,slight mistake 2 out”
16.09.09 “kept on same pace {over 24f)
29.07.09 “bad mistake and unseated rider 4 out”
13.07.09 when won over 17f “slight mistake last”
29.11.08 Hennessy “blundered 10th and 12th – PU”
08.11.08 “always towards rear”
26.04.08 bet 365 gold cup “numerous mistakes”
Not the profile of a GN winner I think!!!
TS is 127
Chases won at
17f
18f
24f
20f
22f
Nothing over 24f!
With this profile it would be a miracle if he won the GN!
Any other views?
#466
February 4th, 2010 22:09
Correction:
RCS
TS is 125 (not 127)
#467
February 4th, 2010 22:18
I think his 3rd in this season’s Kerry National will stand him in good stead and his 7th in the Irish with OR 145 and 11’3” was a brave run. His 2nd in 08 in Irish to HTE was a very good run too.
For me he’s not DA or NM but he’s in the running as a serious contender.
#468
February 4th, 2010 22:33
It was mighty really. Liverpool is the plan and that win won’t do any harm,” said Mangan.
“Stamina is his plus and I’ll be doing a rain dance in Liverpool.
“He’ll also get an entry for the Irish National but if the ground was fast he wouldn’t run in either.”
Comments after Whinstone’s win. Hadrly encouraging if going is good…
#469
February 4th, 2010 23:36
RCS – I think there is enough staying blood there with Phardante being his grandsire. The worry is that hardly only one Phardante runner has finished the GN (Niki Dee 1999). But he is currently coming into his best ever form and ran well in the Kerry national – the only time Paul Carberry had been on board, how much of a difference does he make to a horse!! The mistakes would be a slight worry but they havent happened anywhere near as much with a top jock on board. He’s always performed in his class 1′s. Paul Carberry or Ruby Walsh on board and i would definitely be a backer.
Still havent given up on AS yet either
#470
February 4th, 2010 23:37
hooray, exciting news, my outsider ‘heavy’ tip (and maureens, Matriarchs?) wins!
straight jumper, calm decent traveller, love him.
had nothing on whinstone for GN as obvious worry he wouldn’t get in, will he now? was on 131?!
I had no idea he was running today to try fix that, price is a little short now for the inexperience, but feel he could pull it off with a punchy pedegree albeit for bogs! seems to have character too, intelligent for a horse
Remember I’m predicting good to soft at best this year after our cold snap, although race effectively a week late, so could be drying up…I shall be doing a rain dance and trying to holding off on this one til week of race. Soft or even better heavy this horse could well win!
#471
February 5th, 2010 00:06
He does have a win at 3 miles (twice) and some might say that is proven stamina, for me personally I like to see a win in class one company over 3 miles 2 furlongs (Gold Cup Distance.)
However when studing Rascal’s page the one factor every winner had was a win over the minimum 3 miles, even Red Marauder who scored his 3 miles over hurdles.
RDC is not one I be picking, however I just started to analysis the form (systemsman style).
The one thing that hit me was quite a lot of horses who are outside the ideal age range (8-12). Including the fav who as well as age also looks totally inexperienced (ie less than 10 chases.)
I hope he keeps fav myself as the real chances will be better prices.
#472
February 5th, 2010 09:39
I think Royal County Star was talked about last year and my opinion is still that he’s too chancy at his fences and will be high on my list of horses likely to end up on the deck.
With regards the going, since 2000 we have had one National run on heavy ground and the others have all been on good or good-soft. From an AP perspective it makes sense to focus on horses that handle good and good-soft ground as history tells us that this is the most likely going on the day. I wouldn’t be piling in to any mudlarks at this stage.
#473
February 5th, 2010 09:58
Yeah I got my fingers burnt by backing RCS last year and he wasnt even entered if my memory serves me right!
I think there are more solid options at this stage and would only consider a saver bet on him if he remains in the race a couple of days before raceday itself.
Personally I think anybody who is on;
Dream Alliance
Hello Bud
Niche Market
cant be far wrong at this stage. I will certainly get on Dream Alliance and Niche Market (already on Hello Bud from last year) if the weights are right come weights day, and then see what crops up between then and raceday.
#474
February 5th, 2010 09:58
3 horses that could hit the stats late;
Arbor Supreme – entered in the Haydock tace, Willhill chase would seem more likely given JP’s record in the race
Ollie Magern – Racingpost chase
My Will – ????
#475
February 5th, 2010 10:09
Sorry, meant to ask;
Why no Character Building on the list Systemsman?
I cant see what stat he fails on…
#476
February 5th, 2010 10:19
I still hold out hope for Arbor Supreme but JP has loads of other entries so they could end up bypassing Aintree this year if things don’t go to plan.
Can’t fancy Ollie Magern on what we have seen recently. No win since Nov ’07 which is 15 starts now. I don’t think he’s been that shrewdly campaigned to be honest. He’s clearly not as good as he was but they have kept on running him in races like the King George and Gold Cup so his rating has only dropped very slowly. I know he’s slipped down to 149 but even on that mark he doesn’t look that well handicapped given his current level of form.
#477
February 5th, 2010 10:23
Daniel,
CB does hit all the stats in terms of previous form but the last stat I used to get down to my list of 10 AT THIS STAGE was the 43/43 seasonal form – top 4 chase, top 3 hurdle finish.
CB (along with a few others) has not hit this stat so far (having not run). He clearly has time to remedy that.
#478
February 5th, 2010 10:26
Quite right – how stupid of me!
Personally I dont think he has got the time to get fully fit in time for the GN – he would need 2 runs MINIMUM, probably 3 between now and the end of the festival on 19th March. That’s asking a lot, even though he is entered in a couple of lightweight races this weekend, and then the GC at Haydock in a fortnights time.
Ive got an antepost ticket though so am hanging on to the slim hope – plus it would be a great win if he could do it, with all the injury problems he’s had.
#479
February 5th, 2010 10:30
I can’t fancy CB – still yet to run this season, also an unlikely stayer
Really struggling to find a horse that stands out this year. At this stage i don’t like any of the main 3 trends horses (NM, HB, DA). I think the winner is either likely to hit the stats late, break a minor stat or have previous course
#480
February 5th, 2010 10:33
Problem with hitting the stats late so to speak, is that all the winners I can find have ticked off the stats at least a year before, with the odd exception, such as number of chase runs/wins.
The C1 chase top 3 finish has been done for all of the last 30 winners in at least the season before, with the excpetion or Rough Quest in 1996.
I did flag this last year when we were all getting excited about Rambo’s chances, but it was swatted aside.
I wonder if it’s worth considering again; Is there a reason why a horse might struggle to win the National having only placed in a C1 chase for hte first time in the same season? or is it just a coincidence?
#481
February 5th, 2010 10:35
It would be a nice story if he were to win but he seems to have dealt with more problems than the Citizen’s Advice Bureau!!
He could get 3 runs under his belt before Aintree and the races you mentioned would be the obvious targets – a spin over hurdles tomorrow, Haydock in two weeks then something like the William Hill or Kim Muir at Cheltenham. I would be worried if he isn’t declared this weekend.
#482
February 5th, 2010 10:38
It’s a lot to ask in such a short space of time, isn’t it?
Even if he was to get those 3 in, it would be far from ideal with so many previous winners having swerved the festival.
#483
February 5th, 2010 10:43
Cloudy Lane being overlooked a little maybe – favourite 2 years ago. He’d be a very likely winner of the race at Haydock
#484
February 5th, 2010 10:46
Daniel,
“I wonder if it’s worth considering again; Is there a reason why a horse might struggle to win the National having only placed in a C1 chase for hte first time in the same season? or is it just a coincidence?”
It might tie in with age and experience. Most Nationals are won by horses that are running in their third (or more) season over fences hence they generally have plenty of experience. You would expect such horses to have run in Class 1 races during their previous campaigns and probably “hit the stat”. Second season chasers don’t have a particularly good record in the National and many second season chasers would be running in class 1 races for the first time in that season. If they “hit the stat” in a Class 1 it’s likely that they would have done so in that same season which could help explain your finding.
#485
February 5th, 2010 11:02
I still think the 6lb rise for Joe Lively is a disgrace and complete overreaction. Seething!!
(Yes, that is partly the pocket talking!)
#486
February 5th, 2010 11:10
It was a good performance from Joe Lively at the weekend, he was giving 10lb to Taranis
Has anyone got the trends for the Blue Square gold cup at Haydock? It could prove to be a really key race with a lot in there failing on small ‘national stats’ and I do think Cloudy Lane could be the dark horse we havent picked up on
#487
February 5th, 2010 11:11
That was the only reasoning I could think of too Stayer – I think it would take a brave man to rule out a horse who had only done it this season, but its certainly worth bearing in mind.
You need to ask yourself, like Rambo last year, was it a one off? Why havent they done it sooner?
#488
February 5th, 2010 11:18
TC,
I thought Cloudy Lane shaped like a non-stayer when trailing home in 6th behind COD in 2008. Even if you forgive him that, he ran off 141 that day and his current rating is 151 so it looks a big ask.
#489
February 5th, 2010 11:24
Cloudy Lane is a much better horse now. He was 8 in the 2008 national – so much so, that i think he would have won the Lexus. He was still quite inexperienced over fences also in 2008. He’s won off 155, and i think quite a few national winners have a decent Haydock record. Just trying to find a few horses who aren’t quite there on the stats and CL could be one of them
#490
February 5th, 2010 11:27
Yes, agreed that Cloudy Lane did not stay that extreme distance.
Could we also say the same about Big Fella Thanks? Or, does the fact that he is now a year older mean that we will be stronger and be able to stay those extra few furlongs? An interesting contender but not one I’ve backed yet
#491
February 5th, 2010 11:41
Well I have to agree with others on this site that the three best trends/stats runners so far are:
1. Dream Aliance – 2009 Welsh National winner
1. Niche Market – 2009 Irish National winner
3. Hello Bud – 2009 Scottish National winner
I would also include Gone To Lunch if he were to run.
So that the first three (all are now in my anti-post portfolio).
None of the three are perfect (DA is the bast fit bar weight)but they are the three big National winners and one is bound to have a very good run for sure!
I had given up on HB who was my very first firm selection at christmas but with so few looking all over good on trends I am warming to him again and just cant leave him of the list – will probably run the first 3/4 of the GN very well – its the last 1/4 that the problem for him!! (but worth having just in case – better than RCS I think)..
I also have not given up on AS who will get a good weight but needs that chase win – come on AS you cn do it!
Now just need 3 or 4 more!
#492
February 5th, 2010 12:27
Hello all, I’ve been going on about Niche Market since his run in the Hennessy and Dream Alliance since the Welsh National, both runs impressed me, but don’t forget Silver By Nature who was closing on Dream Alliance at the end of the Welsh National. How does he fair on your 30/30 stat.
#493
February 5th, 2010 12:30
Silver by Nature hasn’t been entered
#494
February 5th, 2010 12:42
Some interesting pointers over the weekend possibly.
Character Building has been declared for hurdle races at Donny and Wetherby so the trainer must be desperate to get a run into the horse.
GTL and According To John have both been declared for the 3m Chase at Sandown. ATJ is only rated 130 so will probably need to win to guarantee a run at Aintree.
Old Benny (132), Chiaro (130) and Kilbeggan Blade (135) have all been declared for the 4m race at Donny. If any of those are to get in the National they are going to have to go close tomorrow.
Trabolgan (137) wasn’t declared for the Sandown race tomorrow. Unless he runs next weekend it will be very touch-and-go for him to get a run at Aintree with that rating.
#495
February 5th, 2010 12:45
Shame about Trabolgan – he was lining up to be my ‘dark horse’ bet
Can you imagine a horse who won the Hennessy off 11_12 running in the GN off 10_02 or such like?!?!
Not impossible yet, but looking less and less likely.
I wonder if he will go for the GC anyway, and only run in the National if he doesnt have a hard run in that. I know in previous years the aim has always been the GC.
#496
February 5th, 2010 12:48
Suprised Chiaro hasn’t had a full campaign geared towards the National – I thoght he looked quite promising a while back.
On all known form Kilbeggan Blade stands no chance – he’s no better than Rambo and flopped in his race at Sandown this year
#497
February 5th, 2010 12:52
Funny how so many horses seem to be falling by the wayside and the horses that have been so highly touted since last year are still the ones that we all end up coming back to . there are so many now converging around the same 3 or 4 horses
No matter how many times I look at it I come back to these 4
1. Niche Market
2. Dream Alliance
3. Hello Bud
4. My Will
I have backed all of these and these will be my four core bets
My outsider list is as follows
Joe Lively (too much weight now methinks to win)
Cant buy Time
Maljimar
Royal County Star
Only over 8 weeks to go .. !
#498
February 5th, 2010 12:53
9 weeks isnt it?
#499
February 5th, 2010 12:54
Thanks speedy, just realized he wasn’t entered. Must have been mixing him up with Silver Birch who I expect to go at the first forfeit stage.
#500
February 5th, 2010 13:01
Scottish National I would imagine for Silver by Nature [being a northern horse].
#501
February 5th, 2010 13:06
If they really want Trabolgan to get into the National they will have to run in the Aon Chase at Newbury next weekend and hope he finishes close enough to Denman to get put up a few lbs. That’s the only race he can really run in before the weights come out.
#502
February 5th, 2010 13:16
Difficult to go up the ratings being placed in a tough Conditions race like the Aon – they’s be better off running in the horse in a Class 2 handicap and winning it – for the horse’s confidence and to be sure of getting in
#503
February 5th, 2010 13:21
I agree Pablo. My point was that they have run out of time as I don’t think there are any Class 2 handicap chases over 3m+ between now and the 16th February. After pulling the horse out of the race tomorrow the Aon looks to be the only option open to them before weights day. It might be that they’re not that serious about running the horse in the National but with the owner being who he is I find that unlikely.
#504
February 5th, 2010 13:27
I think its definately true to say Trabolgan aiming for GC and only if he doesn’t get a hard race there will they consider GN. No panic to get his rating up also suggests this.
Would they risk him IF he gets in, likes to hit a few and get away with it, different story at aintree perhaps and after all those yrs of nursing him back, would you risk him? I suppose at 12 you might…more importantly would his owners!
Got a feeling this is one the handicapper would help in as he’s top draw but unlikely to run even with help I would think.
Whats our lowest OR running guess?
#505
February 5th, 2010 13:47
I could easily see it going as low as 137 or thereabouts.
Agree about Trablogan ‘hitting a few’ – even when he runs well his reports are full of ‘blundered’ ‘faultered’ or ‘hit’!!
Im going throw us off at a tangent a bit now. How about Kilcrea Castle for a potential improver? It would need to do something good between now and race day of course, but he has an entry in the RP Chase, which has been a good indicator down the years.
Dark horse…
#506
February 5th, 2010 14:09
I liked the way Kilcrea Castle ran the other week – travelled really nicely and looked to jump quite well
I’ll have another look at him – agree he could be a lively outsider
#507
February 5th, 2010 14:19
Guess there isn’t an easy answer but with the trend of last 12 years and 6 Irish winners is there a ‘way in’ in that the Irish horses that havent got direct form v. best of the English entries (yes, less so these days as more horses cross the water …both ways…for more races) that shows these Irish horses get in a good few pounds below a true mark??
Silver B rated 138
No6Val 138
HedgeH 144
Montys P 139
Papillon 139
Bobbyjo 142
Yes I know, after the race any mark is going to make easyish winners look thrown in!! Just a thought as 1 or 2 Irish horses around that 138-142 mark might be worth a good look at!!
They are: 138 Offshore Account
139 Beroni, Character Building
140 Jayo
141 Arbor Supreme
143 Conna Castle, Equus Maximus, Irish Invader, One Cool Cookie
144 Siegemaster
But my eye has been taken by the improving Whinstone Boy (mentioned elsewhere) but 131 might be too low to get it a run!!
#508
February 5th, 2010 14:28
Character Building is trained in Yorkshire!
#509
February 5th, 2010 14:32
Whoops you are right!! Trying to do them quickly on 2 comps just noted the (Ire) not the trainers name…Ireland!!
Happens when trying to work too…hehe Wonder if any of the other 9 cross ref with yr 30/30 list??
#510
February 5th, 2010 14:51
Nick,
Most of those Irish horses aren’t great on the stats:
Irish Invader – only 3m win was a hurdle race, no runs this season and looked like a non-stayer last year.
Jayo – No 3m win, 7yo.
Conna Castle – no 3m win
Beroni – only 1 3m win, never raced beyond 3m.
Equus Maximus – Only run in 8 chases, no real form outside novice company.
That leaves One Cool Cookie, Siegemaster and Arbor Supreme, of which the latter would have the best staying form having won twice over further than 3m (29f, 30f).
#511
February 5th, 2010 14:53
will whinstone not go up for win yesterday?
if so by how much? needs 6 atleast! a horse that could take the extra weight with ease.
can handicapper just boost a horse in because of impressive recent form? he boosted Butlers for showing absolutely nothing!
#512
February 5th, 2010 14:54
I wouldnt discount One Cool Cookie so quickly.
#513
February 5th, 2010 14:59
Phils Smith added 7lb to the Thyestes winner and also added on 4lb for all the irish horses not to have run in the UK. So thats 11lb for starters added to his current rating of 131 before yesterdays win. So he’d be guaranteed a run. Still think 141 is likely to be bottom weight.
If WoA wasnt heading to Aintree, then i would fancy One Cool Cookie’s chance in the national
#514
February 5th, 2010 15:02
Daniel,
I’m not discounting One Cool Cookie at all. Of the Irish horses Nick outlined he would be one of the 3 that tick most of the right boxes. He’s slipped 7 or 8lbs down the handicap since last year so could be dangerous.
A lot of people seem to be getting excited about Whinstone Boy on here. He’s only run in 6 chases so he’s basically a novice.
#515
February 5th, 2010 15:07
I agree with the Stayer about Whinstone Boy – not even on my radar….yet.
One Cool Cookie, like a lot of em, would have to do something between now and then to make me part with my cash, but its certainly not implausible
#516
February 5th, 2010 15:16
Cheers for the replies esp to The Stayer and TC (hope you are right re WB and Phil S giving it enough to get in!!).
I go back to BobbyJo tho to underline my 10yrs+ radical changes point…1998 GN 36 ran…now its over subscribed by 36+ evey year!!!
#517
February 5th, 2010 15:29
It was just me looking for any trend in last 10-12 yrs (Irish winners jumped out) and then when saw how close all their ratings were….
On closer inspection and your welcomed comments OCC seems to be the one from that list but am becoming more enamoured with WB….
#518
February 5th, 2010 15:38
Thanks TC, well getting a run is the main thing, say Whinstone also gets 2 for yesterday that could be 144 10st7 if MM top weight and thats ok. considering the company and his lack of experience. If and ONLY IF its a bog, he is my no.1. a lord gyllene, bindaree kinda year perphaps, although maybe more of a stretch, he jumps, travels, and is a calm intelligent horse. Its one where what you can see, outweighs novice status.
Sorry for bringing BC up there, Butler fans, but best example of phils whims and overeactions, don’t think last years boost was fair as on the decline and anyway, he gave him so much weight he shouldn’t have bothered fixing it anyway! Crazy stuff, really annoyed me, but BC to his credit ran better than I expected, poor thing.
Would prefer if Phil gently boosted form horses and class comebacks like Trabolgan myself, although by doing so makes it harder to find the winner! but thats his job
#519
February 5th, 2010 15:40
Nick,
Inexperience would be a major concern in the case of Whinstone Boy. Only had 6 chases so far and even if Jimmy Mangan can squeeze in a couple more he will be heading to Aintree with 8 chases behind him.
I have a stat that last year 10/11 winners had run between 10 and 27 times over fences. Mon Mome hit that stat so make that 11/12. I think the winner that didn’t hit it was Amberleigh House who actually had more runs than 27, not less than 10.
TC, Crisp, Daniel, Anyone,
Have you got a stat on inexperienced runners? Has a horse ever won the National with less than than 10 chases under their belt?
#520
February 5th, 2010 15:48
Miinnehoma won < 10 chases
But he won RSA and was 7th in Gold Cup
#521
February 5th, 2010 15:53
2009 Mon Mome ———- 24
2008 Comply or Die —– 14
2007 Silver Birch —— 13
2006 Numbersixvalverde – 10
2005 Hedgehunter ——- 11
2004 Amberleigh House — 38
2003 Montys Pass ——- 41
2002 Bindaree ———- 16
2001 Red Marauder —— 13
2000 Papillon ———- 25
1999 Bobbyjo ———– 17
1998 Earth Summit —— 25
1997 Lord Gyllene —— 10
1996 Rough Quest ——- 22
1995 Royal Athlete —– 16
1994 Miinnehoma ——– 9
1992 Party Politics —- 14
1991 Seagram ———– 30
1990 Mr Frisk ———- 27
1989 Little Polveir —- 8
That’s as far back as I go in my log.
So to recap:
Numbersixvalverde 10
Lord Gyllene 10
So Miinnehoma with 9
Little Polveir with 8
I go with 8 as a minimum, but really want to see 10 or more.
Interestingly, before MM last year, the previous 4 winners had all been quite lightly raced.
#522
February 5th, 2010 15:54
Pablo,
You’re correct. Miinnehoma had only run in 9 chases before Aintree and the National was his 10th start over fences.
You are also correct in that he had won an RSA, been 7th in a GC and 3rd in a Welsh National so had experience in tough 3m+ chases. He was also a 3rd season chaser.
I would suggest that the National could be too big a test for Whinstone Boy so early in his chasing career.
#523
February 5th, 2010 15:58
Daniel,
Thanks for putting that up. The Little Polveir number is incorrect though. The Racing Post records only go back to 1988 but he had won the Scottish National in 1987 so would have had more than 10 chases.
Miinnehoma on 9 would be the lowest but he had run in tough races like the RSA, GC and Welsh National.
#524
February 5th, 2010 16:02
Undone by the archives!! thanks for the heads up Stayer (can anybody tell me how many he did have, so I can update my records?) I did have him down as a Scottish National winner, but didnt connect the dots!
I still go with 8 minimum – but it is just that, a MINIMUM
#525
February 5th, 2010 16:03
Miinnehoma – Another Martin Pipe trends buster!! Can you class Dream Alliance and Whinstone Boy in the same league? Whinstone Boy has already had a hard enough season this year for a novice
18/19 had already run 98-181f on the racetrack under rules in their national winning season (includes hurdles) You can guess the odd one out!
#526
February 5th, 2010 16:05
good call gang!
on the plus side you know he has excellent pedegree, buckskin like Amberleigh, infact to all who haven’t seen him race, he seems similar to him in character, jumping and travelling. Slow TS 119 but thats 5 chases and in the wet! Beat Powerstation in hurdle race while both carrying 11st10, been tested! but yes, could be one for next yr, but ground dependant so will have to take his chances now if soft side as may not get another chance.
Bring on the rain I say, think if he looses in bog it would be to DA maybe or Maljimar. I just wanta see real test and in this scenario my boy whinny would be amazing stat breaking glory!
#527
February 5th, 2010 16:06
Chuffing hell TC – How long did it take you to add up all the numbers on that one!!
Something thats always intrigued me is the fact that so many National winners never seem to win another race after their national win. I know Party Politics won the Haydock GC after his 1992 win, but does anybody know of other winners that have won another race, any race, after their GN win.
Would be interesting to know when thinking about Comply or Die’s chances and, to a lesser extent perhaps, Mon Mome….and Silver Birch of course!
#528
February 5th, 2010 16:08
My gut feeling would be that Whinstone Boy would go for the Irish National. Annoyed that I missed the race yesterday. Why, as an 9 year old, has he had so little racing, and why did I think I’d read that Jimmy Mangan had only just got him, when he’s trained him throughout his career? very enigmatic, this one. Wish I’d risked the 50/1 a few days ago!
#529
February 5th, 2010 16:09
Hedgehunter & #6valverde both won Thyestes and then the GN the following season
#530
February 5th, 2010 16:10
KJ – We don’t need stat breakers!
Glad Cheltenham is coming up, cause there isnt a horse i strongly fancy for the national at all
#531
February 5th, 2010 16:10
Maureen
Numbersixvalverde was lightly raced for a 10 year old – so all not lost for WB next year – he might be there for the experience this year (or go for Topham like Monty’s Pass – another 10 year old winner for Ireland)
Think if they’re not going to be hotshots over hurdles the trainer can take his time
#532
February 5th, 2010 16:21
Managed to find a few quotes feom the trainer. Sounds as if they were aiming for the Topham [the lads love Liverpool] thinking he wouldn’t get in the National. ‘I’d love to run him in the National’. ‘He’s had a few slight problems and is a bit weak in his tendons’. The ‘lads’ were also involved with Monty’s Pass. Certainly one to keep an eye on.
#533
February 5th, 2010 16:23
Numbersixvalverde was my nightmare year; as I said to everyone I knew, ‘I’ve backed every horse that could win it except this horse called Numbersixvalverde..bet he goes and wins it..’
#534
February 5th, 2010 16:26
One Cool Cookie does not fit the profile of a 90s/00s winner because his rating has slipped someway without him being injured
The rating of a winning horse has only fallen from the highpoint of its career by more than a few pounds if it has been out injured
But that doesn’t mean that a plot is not afoot…
Previous highest OR; GN OR; Diff; Horse; Comments
154; 148; -6; Seagram; out of handicap in Desert Orchid’s RP Chase win when rated 154
153; 153; 0; Party Politics
157; 153; -4; Miinnehoma; injured when rated 157
163; 155; -8; Royal Athlete; injured when rated 161
151; 152; 1; Rough Quest
148; 149; 1; Lord Gyllene
157; 147; -10; Earth Summit; injured when rated 157
129; 142; 13; Bobbyjo; out of handicap in GN
143; 139; -4; Papillon
143; 140; -3; Red Marauder
140; 136; -4; Bindaree
137; 139; 2; Monty’s Pass
139; 139; 0; Amberleigh House
142; 144; 2; Hedgehunter
135; 138; 3; Numbersixvalverde
142; 138; -4; Silver Birch; injured when rated 142
148; 139; -9; Comply Or Die; injured when rated 148
148; 148; 0; Mon Mome
But that injury bonus from the handicapper has been useful over the years – particularly to good young horses
Miinnehoma – won RSA
Royal Athlete – 3rd Gold Cup
Earth Summit – won Scottish National
Silver Birch – won Welsh National
COD – 2nd RSA, 4th Hennessy
#535
February 5th, 2010 16:32
Well ok Royal Athlete was 10 when he came 3rd in the Gold Cup but he was a leading Novice – winning the Reynoldstown and a faller when favourite for the RSA
#536
February 5th, 2010 16:43
Judging by the way he handicapped Mon Mome in 2008 the handicapper clearly thought that the horse had gone
2008
141 GN 10th beaten 58L
143 Scottish GN 9th beaten 47L
133 Haydock 2nd
140 Cheltenham 1st
2009
148 GN 1st
Rapid fall then rise in the weights (after a spell out but when his rating hadn’t dropped too much)
I wonder whether this yo-yoing of weights will be a sign of things to come
#537
February 5th, 2010 17:07
I still don’t understand this slippage in the handicap prior to 2003
Can anyone explain?
When did slippage occur – at the end of the season? On 31st December?
How much slippage occurred?
Did it happen to all horses?
It may be totally irrelevant or might shed some light – I’m completely in the dark on this one.
#538
February 5th, 2010 17:22
Cheers Pablo and DE and The Stayer (and Maureen re WB).
Am amazed at the Little Polvier stats as 2 of its previous chases were in the preceding 2 GN’s but yes DE they tend to make WB look less and less likely.
Also Pablo and OCC again take your point.
It was just a general muse this lunch time…what had last 10-12 winners thrown up trend wise and 6 Irish trained winners rated 138-144 was worth an ask…!!
Now where have I put my drawing board…?
#539
February 5th, 2010 17:26
Also Maureen you can watch the WB race for free (and all Irish races) on the At The Races website.
#540
February 5th, 2010 17:32
Silver Birch looks like we are converging once again on the same runners. My Will looks good for my 4th choice but not certain yet – more work to be done but DA, NM and HB cannot be left out if trends are your thing – and they are mine!
Sometimes we all look for that missing factor, the “dark horse” and all the time the winner is there in front of us – I think it could be one of those years with either DA or NM storming to the finish line.
At least its not a “Rambo year” and we are all looking at a short spred of possible winners.
I would caution everyone not to take your eye of AS who may yet do the buisness (or not)and he is already so very close on trends, but we may have to wait right up to Cheltenham to find out – very frustrating – pass the aspirin please!.
#541
February 5th, 2010 17:32
I thought I could only watch it the same day. I’ll check it out.
#542
February 5th, 2010 17:33
DE great point about winners not winning another race.
Without checking I know Rough Quest won a hurdle and Hunter chase after GN win and Bindarees Welsh National win was AFTER his GN win
Other than that…
#543
February 5th, 2010 17:37
Yes Papillon win 17f listed chase Dec after GN win…how far back we gonna go?
#544
February 5th, 2010 17:49
Find that interesting that the 6 Irish trained winners in the last 11 years were rated 138-144. Extend that to 145 and we’ve got 2 excellent ‘trends’ horses
#545
February 5th, 2010 17:53
Daniel Edwards says:
February 5, 2010 at 10:33 AM
“Problem with hitting the stats late so to speak, is that all the winners I can find have ticked off the stats at least a year before, with the odd exception, such as number of chase runs/wins.
The C1 chase top 3 finish has been done for all of the last 30 winners in at least the season before, with the excpetion or Rough Quest in 1996.
I did flag this last year when we were all getting excited about Rambo’s chances, but it was swatted aside”
Daniel could you post up who does qualify and ticks these boxes a year ahead? Thanks in advance.
#546
February 5th, 2010 18:04
Mr What was last ‘novice’ to win, 1958, Irish trained, according the great Reg Green. Dont know how many chases he ran, though looking at the Times archive a journalist of the day says that he had finished in the top 2 in his last six races, nice high strike rate!
Well,I thought he’d been retired but Star De Mohaison is due to run in a hurdle tomorrow. Has entry in Haydock’s Blue Square Gold Cup off OR152,presume that will be his GN rating. 3lbs below his rating when narrowly beaten by Mon Mome at Cheltenham, 26f, giving MM 18lbs.
Looking again at handicap chase runs/wins.
13/19 won 3 or more handicap chases. 15/19 won 2 or more.
10 ran in 12 handicap chases or more and they all won at least 3.
Back to the 13/19. It might be of interest it might be guff, look away if you don’t like strike rates.
What of the six that didnt win 3 handicap chases. Party Politics, Miinnehoma, Royal Athlete, Bindaree, Hedgehunter, Comply Or Die. They all ran in 8 or less handicap chases and lined up on the day with a 20% or more chase win strike rate and a 50% or more chase win place strike.
#547
February 5th, 2010 18:14
I take exception with the idea that Niche Market is a trends horse.
He fails on chase wins, career wins, chase win strike rates, career win strike rates, chase win place strike rates, career chase win strike rates. Nothing has finished in the first 3 in the last 15 years with win place strikes as low as his, chase or career. Admittedly he could rectify some of these by raceday but a trends horse, appeal to invoke trade description act!
#548
February 5th, 2010 18:32
Just a lttle word, I think we should make clear when we know info for a fact or if it’s only our own thoughts – or it gets turned into chinese whispers, like bunch of old fishwives, lol, as if it IS a fact.
Point in case: as various posts on here gather momentum it seems we’re all saying Trabolgan for GC and for GN only if his GC run was poor. NOT the case at all. The below from a year ago and since then of course he’s been back on track and running and was 4th last time out. Gossipy fishwives, I dunno…lol. Re getting in GN I think Henderson will know what they’re doing – maybe it’s been indicated already that no rush with prep run just for OR as he is going to be allocated based on his class history and should get in? Now there’s a nice fishwifey consideration…
I may be wrong but I have a feeling for Trabolgan that he is this year’s dark horse.
Henderson said: “Trabolgan is going to come out of training for a moment. Unfortunately, his airways aren’t working as they should, and I have a nasty feeling that we spent three years mending one thing and with two years of inactivity his larynx has got lazy and it’s affecting him.
“We’ve got to do a wind operation, which is very frustrating. However, we wouldn’t be mending him if we didn’t want to bring him back, so he’s out for the season but will come back and win the 2010 Grand National!”
#549
February 5th, 2010 18:35
I’ll try again the room is full of steam coming out of my ears or is it just a lot of hot air!
Crisp rant, Take Two
I take exception with the idea that Niche Market is a trends horse.
He fails on chase wins, career wins, chase win strike rates, chase win place strike rates, career win place strike rates. Nothing has finished in the first 3 in the last 15 years with win place strikes as low as his, chase or career. Admittedly he could rectify some of these by raceday but a trends horse, appeal to invoke trade description act!
… that’s a wrap.
#550
February 5th, 2010 18:58
Crisp – I guess that you have to stick to your guns because you follow the trends
I don’t so I won’t – as I’ve said before I award points based on various criteria and will back the top 3 regardless of whether I like their chances
For me part of the debate is which horses might break the trends
Because many on here and other forums, media etc said that a French-bred couldn’t win the National and that “trend” was 99/99
Trend-busters:
1999 Bobbyjo – Irish-trained (non-Irish trained 23/23)
2001 Red Marauder – no chase win at 3 miles (don’t know but a longish time I’d guess – but certainly 10/10)
2002 Bindaree – no wins in a handicap chase (well certainly 11/11)
2003 Monty’s Pass – Topham as only key race/30-30 stat (well certainly 12/12)
2009 Mon Mome – French bred 99/99
That’s 5 out of the past 11 years
And the amendments have been made to many systems on here
Trends are a useful pointer but none is likely to be fixed forever
#551
February 5th, 2010 19:14
On another point
Louping D’Ainay has never run in the UK or Ireland
Previous horses like that have been allocated topweight – Quirinus (Czech horse) won the Velka Pardubicka over 35f in 1992 and ran at Windsor after weights out in 1993 (void race) and was given 174 as a rating – ran off 169 the following year
Could that happen again?
#552
February 5th, 2010 20:43
Hi Daniel Edwards, earlier you mentioned about previous national winners not winning another race.
In fact with the exception of Mr Frisk who won 4 and Esha Ness who ‘won’ the void race no winner has won more than 2 races since.
The facts on the matter are:-
1990 After Mr Frisk’s won (7/4/90 worth 70k) he went on to win on (28/4/90 @ Sand 48k),(03/11/90 @ Sand 4k),(16/11/91 @ Asco 5k),(15/11/91 @ Asco 3k.)
1991 Seagram didn’t win another race.
1992 Party Politics won (4/4/92 worth 99k) he won on twice after that first @ Hayd on 27/02/93 race worth 25k, then on 04/12/93 @ Chep race worth 15k.
1994 Miinnehoma won (09/04/94 worth 115k) winning one more race afterwards @ Hayd 07/01/95 race worth 17k.
1995 Royal Athlete didn’t win another race.
1996 Rough Quest won (30/03/96 worth 142k), won twice more afterwards,first @ Folk on 17/12/96 race worth 2k then @ Newb on the 15/03/99 race worth 1k.
1997 Lord Gyllene didn’t win another race.
1998 Earth Summit won (04/04/98 worth 212k),then won on the 21/11/98 @ Aint worth 28k.
1999 Bobbyjo didn’t win another race.
2000 Papillon won (08/04/00 worth 290k) then won @ Leop (ireland) on 27/12/00 race worth 10k.
2001 Red Marauder didn’t win another race.
2002 Bindaree won (06/04/02 worth 290k) then won @ Chep on 27/12/03 race worth 47k.
2003 Monty’s Pass won (05/04/03 worth 348k) then won a race at Cork on flat (private function no data) on 15/06/03.
2004 Amberleigh House didn’t win another race.
2005 Hedgehunter didn’t win another race.
2006 Numbersixvalverde didn’t win another race.
2007 Silver Birch Won (14/04/06 race worth 399k) then won a ladies open at Nen on 07/02/09 value unknown, Nen is a meeting in ireland.
2008 Comply Or Die not yet won another race.
2009 Mon Mome not yet won another race.
This tells the picture that after the year they won their nationals most went on to win in tin pot races.
The is however a flip side to this arguement since Red Rum’s famous triple win a number of previous winners have been runner up in a following year (not necessary the next year afterwards). The last horse to do this was Comply Or Die last year. His RPR when winning was rated at 158 and last year 160. So I think some winners of this race has just been unlucky and sooner or later a previous winner will just have that bit of extra luck and become the first dual winner since rummy.
On a different topic the stat of winning 17K in the 30/30 stat should that be amended for inflation.
#553
February 5th, 2010 22:51
A return to form in Blue Square for Old Benny could see him emerge as a dark horse for this year. Needs to get his OR (132) up. This 4th placed in 08 Scot National and winner over 4m at Chelts in 08 has been out for 18 months and struggled on last 2 showings, but he is, I think, Alan King’s only GN entry and stable is back on form.
If not him surely Chiaro or Kilbeggan will step up to mark. Crikey some horse in need of their OR raised for GN entry surely has to run a decent race before the 16th lol!!!!
#554
February 5th, 2010 23:04
Indeed Showlad. I think we have to give Old Benny another chance. He hasn’t set the world alight in his two starts this season but Alan King’s string was in poor form in November and December. The trip and ground should suit tomorrow so no real excuses. I hope he does it to be honest but i’m worried about the novice Bay Cherry. He’s by the same sire as Old Benny (Saddler’s Hall) and his Damsire is Roselier so he should stay forever.
#555
February 5th, 2010 23:13
Stayer, do we have any gauge as to what ‘points’ on the OR scale a win tomorrow would be worth? Think getting OR up to 139 is min req for GN this year.
#556
February 5th, 2010 23:14
what about big fella thanks. 6th last year and he was only 7. could get a couple of pounds lighter this year. he didn’t have a great race earlier in the season but, it was his first one out since national and on heavy ground think he is in with a massive shout. My problem is his low odds 18/1 but then again i’m gready.
#557
February 5th, 2010 23:24
Showlad,
I agree that if Old Benny is to get a run at Aintree he probably needs to go up by 7lbs or more. He therefore really needs to win tomorrow to get that result but I guess the manner of the victory is key. If he but hacks up by 15l then he’ll probably go up enough to get in but if he scrapes home by a neck with lots of other horses close up he might only go up a few lbs. I don’t know enough about handicapping to be sure what is required though.
#558
February 5th, 2010 23:34
Ye just wondered as Chiaro has promise too, but he’s even further away at OR 130. Kilbeggan no good in C1 I feel, but he has won over 30f in the Lonodn national and he is very good value. He is closer at OR 135 – so a lot to aim for.
#559
February 5th, 2010 23:35
Does anyone know of any other key GN hopefuls racing 2mo with aim to get OR increased?
#560
February 6th, 2010 00:12
Stayer
Bay Cherry’s pedigree looks even better on the damside as Kemal (Rhyme ‘N Reason’s sire) is there too
Also entered in the 4-miler at the Festival
#561
February 6th, 2010 06:49
Pablo, regarding Continental horses, the BHA h’capper nowadays takes a view. In the past a horse had to run in three races in this country to get a rating, but that doesn’t apply any more.
If we’re holding a sweepstake on the issue, my guess is that Louping D’Ainay will be given 149. I was going to say 150, but at the last second changed it to 149, factoring in Smith trying to encourage the horse to run.
#562
February 6th, 2010 11:14
“crisp 73 says:
February 5, 2010 at 6:14 PM
I take exception with the idea that Niche Market is a trends horse.”
Crisp 73 you were quite right to point this out. I got carried away and in truth was refering to a combination of trends and stats with Niche Market being a clear stand out “class horse” but not a trends horse so apologise if I confused anyone (I have also pointed this out myslef in past posts).
The trends for NM are very odd and he would upset a number of trends if he won would he not? – but on class you cant fault him and I just have to have him in my top three even if I prefer trends to class (but its best to go for trends + class if possible or cover all angles in a portfolio as I am doing). Must must “expect the unexpected” and trends do chnage in small ways from year to year – let us never forget the “French bred cant win” issue on this blog.
I am going to compare and contrast Niche Market and Dream Alliance in a future post as they make an interesting comparison both having run so well against Denman.
#563
February 6th, 2010 11:56
Relishing 4m test at Donacster today at 4pm. REAL GN test.
Any other GN hopefuls running today other than Kilbeg, Chiaro and Old Benny (my tip for 4m race)?
#564
February 6th, 2010 11:58
Systemsman, I couldn’t take an issue with you. You’ve galvanised the whole blog. Yes, things do change, and we need to be sensible-well, we do if we want to win money anyway!- and look at the thing as a whole. It’s all probability, that needs to be stated. But I do want to say certain stats/trends/probabilities shouldn’t be clouded with, for instance, the ‘FR’ thing. ‘FR”s had been placed on a number of occasions in recent GN’s, I’ve bet on a few myself, the stats that I find interesting me more and more are those that are met even by horses who have got close to winning and there are a few.
#565
February 6th, 2010 12:03
Showlad:
No key hopefuls this w/end. Just some of the chaff.
Gone To Lunch, Bible Lord, Old Benny and Kilbeggan Blade in Eng.
In Ireland tomorrow Made In Taipan and Notre Pere.
If I have msissed something having a spin in a hurdle as prep I apologise!
#566
February 6th, 2010 12:05
and Chiaro!
#567
February 6th, 2010 12:12
I’d take issue with that Character Building is having a blow over hurdles I for one would be very interested to see his well being. Fingers crossed 2010 is his year certainly deserves a bit of luck.
#568
February 6th, 2010 12:18
Iris De Balme goes in the 1:45 @ Wetherby. After 650 days off the course will probably need the run but he’s obviously on the comeback trail.
#569
February 6th, 2010 12:22
One I haven’t seen mentioned much but impressed me last year at a huge price was Preists Leap currently 100/1 makes plenty of appeal as an EW prospect if he can get a decent weight. Was in with every chance 2 out before tailing off, maybe the weight of 11.5 got to him. Shown nowt so far this season which is a worry though, one to watch if given less than 11st in case of a return to form i reckon.
#570
February 6th, 2010 12:52
Iris De Balme is 50/1 with most bookies for the National. Has the Scottish National win which hits a load of the stats – 30/30 key race form, win over 3m, class 1/2 win >£17k. He’s also won another race over 31f and was 4th in a Bet365/Whitbread. I’m not a big follower of strike rate but his chase win/place SR is 10/15 in total and 6/9 in GB so 66% for both. I am very interested to see how he gets on today.
#571
February 6th, 2010 14:26
I thought Iris De Balme ran very encouragingly. Travelled well but just outdone for a bit of toe and maybe fitness but it was a very creditable effort after such a long layoff. Others were impressed as there has been movement on Betfair and one bookie has cut the horse from 50s.
Character Building also ran ok I thought. The trip was always going to be on the sharp side.
#572
February 6th, 2010 14:49
Is this the decision today as to which national GTL goes to? A good jumping display at Sandown and surely its the grand national. Come on Jim Scott let him have his chance!!
#573
February 6th, 2010 15:53
Awful from Gone to Lunch. Out of my reckoning now
#574
February 6th, 2010 15:56
He was poor there. Think you can forget about According To John too. Won’t get in the National off 130.
Old Benny, Chiaro and KB up in the next at Donny.
#575
February 6th, 2010 15:59
so old monkerhostin shows them how its done with 11st12 aged 13.
How do all of you that call him rubbish think of the competition now!
GTL is a funnny sort and I would only consider backing him with McCoy onboard and even then, dodgy.
#576
February 6th, 2010 16:13
You can forget Old Benny, Chiaro and KB. They were terrible in that race there.
Disappointing day for the National hopefuls with only Iris De Balme running particularly well.
#577
February 6th, 2010 16:14
Now it’s Old Benny, Chiaro and Kilbeggan to join the massive list of damp squibs leading up to the weights. Almost unprecedented – unbelievable…
Iris good run from being off for so long and I woild rate this as the most meaningful postive today. Acoording to john decent run but no great shakes…
#578
February 6th, 2010 16:24
I didn’t exactly see most of it and had no sound! paid to see basically and went for old Benny, what happened did he fall? stupid ‘aintree hopefuls will run well’ bet, ha! was going to go for Gidam too, grr… Iris did well although didn’t see that either, only positive, but like his trainer said gotta see how it goes first.
#579
February 6th, 2010 17:23
Not great runs from most of the GN entries (Iris De Balme apart was encouraging but he needs to build on that)
But most of the GN horses running today were Class 2 types weren’t they (except GTL who needs better ground & probably McCoy but still looks a bit of a monkey)
These are entered in the GC & GN:
Air Force One
Albertas Run
Casey Jones
Cerium
Cloudy Lane
Madison Du Berlais
Mon Mome
Mr Pointment
My Will
Trabolgan
Tricky Trickster
Any of these that manage a good run and get 11’0 or under in the National would have to be taken seriously I reckon on what is looking a pretty open renewal of the GN, Niche Market apart – but I’d want to see him back to a bit of form after that run lto
#580
February 6th, 2010 18:04
Well today I scanned the full list of entries to see if i could unearth anything thats lurking thats not been on our radar screen . To be honest i was extremely disappointed and as the weeks go by it only reinforces my belief on the horses I already have . There was one horse however who did stand out . And funnily enough Ive just looked through the latest threads and I think Brody has beat me to it . Spot on Brody… Its weLl worth going back to look at preists leap’s run last year with 11-5 on his back . he was still on the bridle coming into the home straight . Im going to guess he gets an or of 148 which means he’ll prob get in here this time with 10-11 on his back . I think there could be worse outsiders and Ive a funny feeling this fella will spring to life in the next month and will be a live dark horse ..
#581
February 6th, 2010 19:39
Think Preists Leap didn’t stay – he fell away very quickly and Snowy was carrying more weight & 45L ahead of him – plus he didn’t stay in the Irish National either – Strong Gale factor perhaps?
#582
February 6th, 2010 20:49
I can’t see Strong Gale anywhere in Preist Leap’s pedigree but it looked as if he didn’t stay last year as he stopped as if shot.
Not a good day for our Grand National hopefuls. Chiaro finised last in the 4-miler at Doncaster and Old Benny and Kilbeggan Blade pulled up. They all have slim chance of getting into the National as does According To John who finished 5th at Sandown today. That was an ok run but he’s not going to get put up the required 8-10lbs on the back of that.
The two that ran over hurdles faired much better. At first glance Character Building’s 13th place looks poor but he was beaten <15l in a competitive race over a distance well short of his best. He’s shown me enough not to write him off.
Iris De Balme ran a very good race after 650+ days off the course. He looked to be the last off the bridle but was done for a bit of toe and probably fitness at the end. He has to build on that but on that showing there’s no reason to suggest why he can’t.
#583
February 6th, 2010 20:53
Sorry my mistake – was getting my horses mixed up – no Strong Gale in Preists Leap!
#584
February 6th, 2010 20:58
Preists Leap finished sandwiched between horses with Strong Gale last year – Idle Talk, Darkness & Offshore Account – but definitely doesn’t have the dreaded SG influence
#585
February 6th, 2010 21:24
Forgot to add in that I though GTL ran a shocker at Sandown. I really fancied him for the National at the start of the season but his last two runs have been dire. He always seems to hit a flat spot in his races but in his last two runs he seems to have shown a lack of enthusiasm which is a worry. Maybe some headgear will help but I couldn’t fancy him on his last two runs.
#586
February 7th, 2010 05:05
I’m disappointed that both Miko & Church are non runners as I’m now left with Niche Market as my main fancy. Crisp, I respect your comments on the strike rate of NM but that aside he fits all trends does he not? The horse has placed 4th four times and is generally entered in high class contests so I’m prepared to make allowances. I’d be more concerned about the weight he may have to carry.
Having been through the National list again Ballyfitz now joins my B list along with War, Cane & Trabolgan.
Ballyfitz age 10
Best RPR 156
TS 148, OR 143 (from 152)
9 chases, 2 wins over 3m+
Excellent dosage figures
5th in Welsh National
Fitz has been successful over hurdles and that’s probably the reason he doesn’t have the perfect GN profile but a good run at Cheltenham will put that right. Comments either way would be very much appreciated.
#587
February 7th, 2010 10:29
Ballyfitz cant jump!
didnt get to see a lot of racing yesterday, how poor was GTL – did he jump poorly? Good 5th for Iris de Balme?
so many front/prominent runners looking like going to the national – all looking likely non stayers, so i’m definitely not giving up on AS with a waiting mccoy ride
#588
February 7th, 2010 11:02
Strike rates…
The table below shows chase runs, wins, places & s/r for runs up to and including first run in a major National (GN, I, S, W) to the left of the horse’s name and subsequent runs to the right of the horse’s name
Runs; Wins; Places; Strike-rate; Horse; Runs; Wins; Places; Strike-rate
14; 4; 3; 50%; Mr Frisk; 0; 0; 0; N/A
28; 9; 12; 75%; Seagram; 0; 0; 0; N/A
12; 5; 3; 67%; Party Politics; 2; 0; 0; 0%
6; 3; 3; 100%; Miinnehoma; 3; 1; 0; 33%
10; 5; 1; 60%; Royal Athlete; 6; 1; 1; 33%
23; 5; 11; 70%; Rough Quest; 0; 0; 0; N/A
10; 3; 6; 90%; Lord Gyllene; 0; 0; 0; N/A
11; 4; 4; 73%; Earth Summit; 14; 3; 2; 36%
12; 5; 3; 67%; Bobbyjo; 5; 0; 0; 0%
5; 2; 2; 80%; Papillon; 19; 4; 2; 32%
8; 5; 0; 63%; Red Marauder; 5; 0; 1; 20%
13; 3; 5; 62%; Bindaree; 2; 0; 0; 0%
41; 7; 20; 66%; Monty’s Pass; 0; 0; 0; N/A
22; 3; 5; 36%; Amberleigh House; 15; 2; 7; 60%
8; 1; 5; 75%; Hedgehunter; 3; 2; 0; 67%
7; 3; 3; 86%; Numbersixvalverde; 3; 0; 0; 0%
8; 4; 2; 75%; Silver Birch; 5; 0; 2; 40%
7; 3; 2; 71%; Comply Or Die; 7; 1; 1; 29%
9; 4; 3; 78%; Mon Mome; 15; 1; 4; 33%
Figures for Mr Frisk and Seagram might be incomplete
With the exception of Amberleigh House all had achieved a s/r of 50%-100% up to and including first run in a major National – but for some horses these runs were in Novice company or Class 2 and 3 handicaps – such as Mon Mome:
4 wins, 3 places, 1 UR in Class 2 to 4 races and UR in Scottish National
The results are very different after the first run in a major National handicap as one might expect given that managing the OR becomes a bigger consideration
All bar three winners had a chase win-place s/r of N/A or <40%, except:
Amberleigh House whose figures include a dodgy 3rd from 5 runners and 3rd from 6 runners – plus a unique 1 win and 3 places over Aintree’s National fences
Hedgehunter whose figures include a win in the Bobbyjo after weights out
Silver Birch whose figures include a 2nd place in the Cheltenham X-Country after weights out
(COD also won his race after weights out)
So for me there is too much ‘noise’ in the strike rate and I would think that being well handicapped on best form is better than being consistently in the top 3 (especially when including 3rd out of 5 etc)
The fewer the number of chase runs the more likely the chase s/r will be high because there will tend to be a greater proportion of Novice and lower class handicap events included
Any thoughts?
#589
February 7th, 2010 11:18
i’m not a fan, but i suppose what s/r shows is the consistency even if there are horses who have run in plenty of novice events. It shows the horse is a plenty good enough jumper and is adaptable to different conditions. Also showing that the horse can adapt to how the race is run – both NM good performances have come off a slow early pace, so is their evidence he can adapt to the likely stronger early pace in the national . After all GN’s are won by clever horses, so it can show the horse’s adaptability skills, but like most stats they do need a degree of flexibility
#590
February 7th, 2010 11:22
Thaimark- fair comments, each to his own. As for stats I suppose sooner or later a GN winner might have have won only 2 chases rather than 3, say. Niche Market hasn’t shown consistency of previous winners. I don’t think it’s just a matter of class and Pablo’s recent more in depth look at strike rates seem to suggest this. Obviously modern winners need to have shown success in C1′s but they have been consistent in whatever class of chases they’ve ran in, some GN winners had very low win place strike rates in C1 chases. Going back to his 4th out of 20 in 32f at Cheltenham, well you could include that as a place but then would you include his 3rd of 4 or 2nd of 4 which he’s had. Three of his 4th place finishes have been in races with 7 runners or less. Overall I think top3 strike rates are a good stat.
Gone To Lunch- if yesterday’s run loses 2-3lbs off his GN weight then it was a good run. I’d rather him run off 145 than 148 and he’s got four preps under his belt. Can’t take away his strike rates, 5 handicap chase runs, 3 chase wins, 2nd in Scot National under a big weight, RPR figures etc -remember Mon Mome’s last couple of preps. Thought he jumped well under pressure, didn’t seem to be enjoying it. Seems to need good ground. Would need a top4 chase place to fit stats.
#591
February 7th, 2010 11:52
GTL vs Niche Market
Key race runs 2 vs 2
Chases 13 vs 16
Chase wins 3 vs 2
Chase win-place s/r 54% vs 38%
Handicaps 5 vs 6
H’cap wins 0 vs 2
Chase runs in small fields (<10 runners) 5 vs 8
Chase wins in small fields 3 vs 0
Win-place s/r in small fields 100% vs 38%
Chase prize money won £114k vs £217k
#592
February 7th, 2010 11:53
Pablo, I think it is very helpful to get these figures down as it does show interesting patterns and reinforces our perceptions. With regard to inexperience (thinking of whinstone again) all had a big strike rate which is encouraging and is what you would expect if something inexperienced could win. Just needs rain to show us.
Weather check
This cold air way up above us hasn’t gone anywhere really, you can tell from watching satellite images, westerly weather fronts that usually wash over us are still hitting a wall before they reach us and splitting. If its wet this spring this Amberleigh House relative could outstay them by his plodding away, think he needs to practice as they did with AH getting his finishing momentum up! Its a fun scenerio and I shant mention it again if everyone tells me who they think will beat him in a bog
GTL last two runs have shown a worrying attitude more than anything, although since before the welsh people have suggested them as intended for weight loss or wrong ground, which would be good if true, jurys out… left really just hoping its a case of wrong jockey hey.
Crisp MMs last preps I did not read as bad at all and certainly not bad attitude and therefore poor travelling and jumping, theres no comparison. Only hopefor GTL is he is transformed by McCoy.
Thaimark- I agree Ballyfitz ran well in welsh, especially towards end! blundered one half way as he does which is THE worry. As I said a while ago thought NTD was keen on him running, I didn’t rate him before the welsh, atleast he’s shown us something encouraging.
#593
February 7th, 2010 12:26
Kj,
I agree with your analysis on GTL. His last two runs have been more than getting him beat to get a few lbs off for the National – see WOA’s run in the Hennessy for a good example of that. You can make the excuse that he hated the ground in the Welsh National and that 3m around Sandown might be a bit sharp for him, but to me GTL has run like a dog on his last two runs and has shown a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the game. I’m very disapointed as I fancied him at the start of the season and his first two runs were encouraging. I can’t fancy him on his last two performances.
Thaimark,
Before parting with some cash on Ballyfitz watch him in action in the PaddyPower and Hennessy. His jumping in those races was appalling. I think he’s just a better hurdler than fencer.
#594
February 7th, 2010 12:39
Some news on Whinstone Boy, Conna Castle and Iris De Balme:
Jimmy Mangan has set his radar on more Grand National glory – this time with Whinstone Boy and Conna Castle.
The County Cork handler won the Aintree showpiece with Monty’s Pass in 2003 and is quietly optimistic about his chances this year.
Whinstone Boy was impressive at Clonmel earlier this week, having supplemented a Gowran success in January.
Mangan said: “It was a good performance, but he is a mudlark and that would be the only thing I’d worry about.
“He’s definitely not a front-runner and he has no real speed for a relentless gallop on fast ground.
“Saying that, he jumps and stays and has all the right ingredients for an Aintree horse.
“We’ll have a quiet time with him, but if he runs again it could be over hurdles a month before the race.”
Although Conna Castle finished last in the Tied Cottage Chase on his most recent outing, Mangan is excited by the 11-year-old’s Aintree credentials.
“I was over the moon with him last Sunday at Punchestown,” said the trainer.
“He didn’t really handle the soft ground, but he flew up the hill.
“Andrew McNamara said he’d have won after another two miles – he’s a horse with a lot of toe.
“The owners are dead keen for him to go to Liverpool and he could well be the dark horse in the race.
“He’s be entered next Saturday at Gowran, but I’d say that might come too soon.”
Sean Curran has similarly lofty ambitions with Iris De Balme. The 2008 Scottish Grand National winner made an encouraging return to action on Saturday at Wetherby, where he finished fifth over hurdles.
Curran’s 10-year-old chestnut had previously been off the track since April 2008 with a series of setbacks.
“He ran a cracker at Wetherby and he seems fine,” reflected Curran.
“Tom Siddall gave him the perfect ride and rode him to win.
“We’ll now go for the Eider Chase at Newcastle (February 27) and then on to Liverpool.
“He’s a better horse on better ground, but I wouldn’t want to be running him on fast ground – not with the problems he’s had.”
Not the most encouraging comments on Whinstone Boy. Conna Castle looks a highly dubious stayer to me.
#595
February 7th, 2010 12:45
Agree that IDB was an interesting run yesterday…the rest of the GN entries (hurdles or otherwise) got the red line through them as I wasn’t enamoured with CB’s effort.
Just a general observation but after Comply or Dies win he was utter rubbish in all his races till last years GN where e ran a blinder under a big weight.
Mon Mome (and re watching the 08 race it was bought to a virtual standstill when BC came down at 2nd Bechers so would have run a far better race than its placing suggested…so I am leaning towards it being one of these Aintree ‘specialists…))has had a couple of decent runs (1 hurdle ) showing much more between GN’s than CorD and yet doesnt appear on too many peoples radar…guess we are expecting it to be hammered with the weight??
Not a serious tip as such…just an observation….
#596
February 7th, 2010 13:10
speaking of horses attitudes, as an example think Sizing Australia could be a good horse, but has no will to win or race? obviously they’ve sent him cross country to get the horse interested in racing?! has kind of worked, but still not running upto potential at all, maybe would run better without a jockey! or at aintree?
what can you do with a young horse like this that seems to have plenty but just not giving it!
Would be funny if MM smashes it! (as the kids say)
think he could place with 11st6 but not win, like COD last yr, winning with 11st10 would make him a god!
Staying on with top weight in midlands nat in tacky conditions last year as prep for real thing, makes you think, its not completely beyond the realms of possibility, but its beyond the stats. Think we all think they are course suited but unlikely to be given a chance in the weights of winning. 11st3 I would back for sure.
#597
February 7th, 2010 13:36
Backstage 3rd on reappearance.
Haven’t really looked at this one, under my radar? what do people think of him?
#598
February 7th, 2010 13:38
Backstage isn’t a horse i’m particularly keen on but he ran a solid enough race at Musselbrough just now.
#599
February 7th, 2010 14:15
The Stayer:
Ty for the trainer updates. Just to note that my trend of 6 of last 11 Irish trained winners with rating of 138-144 fits Conna Castle perfectly!!
Have to say tho on all other factors it doesnt look great…
Fair comment re MM kj
#600
February 7th, 2010 14:19
Backstage did beat the previously well touted Church Island by 100 l over 26f in Aug.
137 perhaps wont get it a run?
#601
February 7th, 2010 14:30
Just another general thought…as the dates are fairly fixed re entries closing and weights published….wouldnt it be an idea for courses to have some decent 0-138 3m+ chases between those dates to give that say 130-138 band a prep that could give them an increase to ‘get in’? I am sur they would be well subscribed…
#602
February 7th, 2010 14:34
I think Backstage was my number one pick at our last tips stage, and remains high on the list. He was 137 when he won his last handicap chase and so will be higher now, and will get in
#603
February 7th, 2010 14:57
Backstage OR 148
If you fancy him for the national then surely you’d have to give the foxhunters winner Trust Fund a chance
#604
February 7th, 2010 15:11
Trust Fund hasn’t impressed me with his record in class 1 chases (PU,5th,PU). Just feel that he lacks the class. Backstage is unproven at highest level and at extreme distances, but think he has improvement (despite 11 pound rise) and one to take chance on
#605
February 7th, 2010 15:18
Backstage – well he falls down on a few indicators for me perhaps but consider these words…
“At the age of thirteen Gordon first entered the racing world, working for Tony Martin at weekends and holidays…Intermittently Gordon spent around twelve years with Tony while also gaining experience with Liam Brown on the Curragh and the late Gordon Richards. Gordon (Elliott) also spent a year in England working for the fifteen times champion trainer Martin Pipe.”
Gordon Elliott has already worked wonders with Silver Birch taking him down the X-Country route – and with the Martin/Pipe influences maybe he’s good enough to re-write the way in which a National winner is trained for the race?
#606
February 7th, 2010 15:18
Above quote from GE’s website
#607
February 7th, 2010 15:29
Don’t Push It, who I gave top marks to, purely as had ‘nil points’ in our top of the pops, is simply undiscussed here,. is that because of his
unwinnable OR 155 right!?
Impressive in the Servo with 11st11 certainly has staying quality and finishing speed, race style not my favourite for GN, concern when jumping at speed to catch up, you can mess up chances getting to the front and in an instant ruining your winning chance.
However, one to discuss I think with NP possibly at 163 would get borderline 11st2.
How will Tony choose!
#608
February 7th, 2010 16:52
Any thoughts on Notre Peres 10l 4th in Irish Hennessey just?
WNat winner in 08…
#609
February 7th, 2010 16:53
” crisp 73 says:
February 7, 2010 at 11:22 AM
Gone To Lunch- if yesterday’s run loses 2-3lbs off his GN weight then it was a good run. I’d rather him run off 145 than 148 and he’s got four preps under his belt.”
Could not agree more. Its not all about winning – losing can be as important prior to weights out. If he’s lost a 1bs or two the jobs done and I for one dont think a clear decision has been made to bypass the GN (for Scots Nat) untill the owner and trainer see his GN weight. Also agreed he needs a 1/2/3/4 in a chase (preferably 1/2/3) after weights out – just like AS. These two I still have hope for – well I would, I have anti-post bets on them both.
So its:
1. DA
1. NM
3. HB
(GTL and AS are already early anti-post bets).
Others being considered but may wait for weights:
MW -looks good on paper. Most likely my 4th selection to win.
SM
The last of the 33/1 on DA is about to go so get on by Tuesday if you want that price.
#610
February 7th, 2010 18:23
Hi Team. Systemsman felt your despair the other day re runners choices, red herrings and strange directions.
But now feel chilled and I feel the answer is in our original findings DA, NM and HB plus those seeking to join them. My Will doesn’t show winning edge for me and at best I feel will forever be bridesmaid.
B list looking to Trabolgan – really have afeeling on this one if he gets in; Arbor and Cane if they start to fire, WAO and RCS is up there. COD, MM will fare again well, though of the previous runners who did well, Snowy Morning may yet fight for my number 1 slot. This class act giving COD 6lbs in his win and last year managed 9th lugging 11-8 around he course last year. He will arrive SUPER FIT to Aintree as did Mon Mome last year.
#611
February 7th, 2010 19:35
I think I’m going to top up my bet on Snowy if the 50/1 is still available. I keep thinking that this could be his year.
#612
February 7th, 2010 19:40
Earlier the team was discussing Backstage. Can I just add that early on in the season he was my first choice of the new season when he won at Ffos Las. However knew then that the was better to come.
Can I just add that summer form is not taken too seriously by me but if an horse continues to show good form when the quality horses appears, well that’s a different matter.
#613
February 7th, 2010 19:52
Showlad “B list looking to Trabolgan – really have afeeling on this one if he gets in”
Totely agreed that Trabolgan must be watched and could prove very dangerous.
OR 137 – a bit under what we need (but handicapper may help with his record!)
RPR 168 – very good (OR/RPR +31!!)
TS 157 – very good
Chase strike rate 5/8 = 63% very good
8 chase runs – on the light side – a couple more would do nicely.
Wom Henssessy in 2005 of 11.12 Or151!!!! – real class
Wonn RSA chase at cheltenhan in 2005 of 11.04!! – real class.
One race this season – not so good!
Age 12 – at the top end of age for winners
Conclusion.
At return to the form of his Hennessy win and he would be a match for NM and DA with a much lower weight. He is now 12 and has only one run this season and this return to form would be very difficult – his Hennessy win was 5years ago!! One to watch and would need a very good run prior to GN to have confidence in his return to form at 12 years of age.
Looking at his form from 2008 on its not so good is it?
#614
February 7th, 2010 19:59
Too late for him and i can’t see how Trabolgan is going to get into the national now snd why should he get special treatment from Phil Smith?
I’ll have to put my top 6 up during the week as i’ll be away for the next couple. All 6 likely to be rated 141-147
#615
February 7th, 2010 20:14
No worries TC post it up as a one-off and I’ll carry forward for you
Showlad prediction: he WILL be shown some respect and thus help from Phil and I say quite rightly so. Yes only 8 chase runs Systems but all that tiem out and he was down for Skybet that was cancelled. Lots left in tank with time out and no regular 12 year old.
Does anyone know of RCS intentions?
#616
February 7th, 2010 20:25
Nice one showlad
Think they tried to get RCS to Aintree last year before the hennessy run took it’s toll on him. He’s the one trends horse i actually like, especially if Paul Carberry rides again as the Kerry national appears to be a decent form line
#617
February 7th, 2010 20:30
Cheers TC.
Anyone know Trusts Funds intentions? Thanks all…
#618
February 7th, 2010 20:40
Just seen that Over the Creek has been entered in a 3m class 3 handicap chase at Kempton on Friday. Will be carrying a hefty burden and, from previous 2 runs, can’t see him winning. I believe he needs to win in order to make the National start line. Unlikely, but at least Pipe is giving him a chance of making it
#619
February 7th, 2010 20:46
Always have had greatest respect for the Pipes – they always give their horses every chance of making the big races and aren’t scared to run them in lower grades if needs be
Whereas Trabolgan… he’s 12 and this is his last chance… ??
#620
February 7th, 2010 21:00
At this stage, there are 2 horses who I have not bet on yet, but may do so dependant on whether they show anything over fences before the big race
Iris de balme – I think a lot of people are in the same boat on this one.
New Alco – I like this horse but hasn’t run for nearly 2 years! Entered in Racing Post Chase and Blue Square Gold Cup. If he shows any hint of form (even something like a staying on 6th or 7th) then I might bite the bullet and back him, in the hope that he gets then later gets a top 3 finish before Aintree
#621
February 7th, 2010 21:10
Maybe its not over yet for the creek he he.. – this is the last clutch of the straw – the last roll of the dice …I see hes been dropped to 132 now . how on earth can that be if he hasnt run over fences … ?? so he would need to win or come a very close second to have any chance….
#622
February 7th, 2010 21:32
Fair play to David Pipe. Looks like they want to get the horse into the National and they are going to give him a chance at Kempton. A win is probably needed though and 3m on a fast track like Kempton might be on the sharp side for him so it looks a tall order.
#623
February 7th, 2010 22:34
If he can’t win a Class 3 he really doesn’t merit a place in the National
#624
February 8th, 2010 09:26
Systemsman- My Will, his pro’s outweigh his cons at the moment but remembered post race interview with Ruby Walsh last year, interviewer said something like he did well finishing 3rd after a couple of mistakes and Ruby not looking very chuffed with it all said ‘four or five’ mistakes. No guarantee he will run, going to what Nicholls has said. His 1 win from 12 handicap chases doesn’t look good either. I’m a fan of his and he was creeping in to my top3 but I’m not so sure. Thought I’d mention this, chins up, we’ll find the one!
#625
February 8th, 2010 09:34
SOME NEWS ON BACKSTAGE:
Gordon Elliott was “thrilled” with Backstage as he began his Grand National preparations by finishing third over hurdles at Musselburgh on Sunday.
The eight-year-old, formerly trained by Evan Williams, travelled well for a long way in the hands of Jason Maguire in the race won by Nicky Henderson’s classy mare Candy Creek.
Elliott is set to give Backstage just one more run before the April showpiece, for which he trades at around the 25-1 mark.
“We were thrilled with Backstage. It was his first run for a while and he was only 75% right,” said Elliott.
“We gave him a run at Musselburgh for better ground. We didn’t really want to be travelling with him but Jason was thrilled.
“He had a blow going to the second-last and the National is the plan.
“He’ll possibly have one run over fences in a month’s time and that will probably be it, straight to the National after that.
“He’s a great horse to have, the lads in the yard own half of him with Middleham Park Racing and it will be a good day at Aintree.
“He’s jumped around there before, he travels, he’s very easy going but it will be hard to get Jason to ride him with his commitment to Donald McCain so I think Paul Carberry will ride him if Noel Meade doesn’t have anything.”
SOME NEWS ON WOA
Connections will wait to see what weight War Of Attrition is allotted in the John Smith’s Grand National before deciding on his big-race target.
Mouse Morris’ 2006 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner has found a new lease of life since reverting to hurdles, but owner Michael O’Leary fancies a crack at the Aintree spectacular.
However, if the handicapper assigns the veteran a hefty National burden, he is likely to be rerouted to the Ladbrokes World Hurdle.
“We were delighted with him last time,” said O’Leary.
“He hadn’t run well over fences for about two years. It’s very hard for him in Ireland because he wants good ground and he just doesn’t jump out of soft that well any more.
“Mouse said ‘let’s go back over hurdles’ and he loved it at Christmas and ran very well at Gowran.
“We’ll send him off to the Boyne Hurdle at Navan next and after that we’ll see what the weights are like in the National.
“If he gets a ridiculously high weight in the National, we’ll probably take him to Cheltenham for the World Hurdle. If he gets a reasonable weight, we’ll maybe put him away and wait for Aintree so we’ll see what the handicapper does,” he told At The Races.
Admin,
I think someone else mentioned an idea about having a separate thread for these kind of comments so that they are all in one place. I think it would be a good idea especially with the weights coming out next week as there will be lots of comments from trainers and owners following on from that.
#626
February 8th, 2010 11:06
Hello all, during the course of the jump season I’ve been posting some of the trainer’s comments about their horses. Now is a good time to bring these comments back to public attention.
Here’s what Nicky Richards had to say on According To John in December.
He is a good consistent type of chaser. Hasn’t won for a while now but he has suffered injury problems in past seasons. His owner, Sir Robert Ogden, has always adopted a careful policy with his horses and he has been very patient with him. This season he has finished 3rd at Haydock and Newcastle. In the Rehearsal he finished an encouraging 3rd as he ran on stongly from the 2nd last. The plan now is a step up in distance to a trip of 3 miles or more. He is a great big strong lad and I think he has the ability to bag a nice prize one day.
#627
February 8th, 2010 11:54
Well he won’t be making it into the National this year. Rated 130 and was only 5th at Sandown the other day so he’s more likely to get dropped a few lbs than go up. Doesn’t look like he’s progessing to be honest. 5th in that Sandown race off 130 the other day and was 4th in the same race off 135 in 2009.
#628
February 8th, 2010 12:09
Oh dear, complete change of tune from Mouse on War there, I put a little on him at the weekend too! instead of more snowy.
So its really down to the handicapper now hey,
mouse’s saying,’do you want this gold cup winner to run or I’ll take him elsewhere’ an honest kinda threat really isn’t it, not exactly cool and not what he was saying!
hope phil aware of new agenda as I think WOA could do better at cheltenham now anyway and would think unless he is treated well he won’t run, shame as I thought he could do well and shame for my pennies.
War is down from what 163 last year to 149, was given special treatment last year to tempt him, this year now similar situation, so phil would want to tempt him right,.. what kinda mark is Mouse looking for do we think? better than 10st12 presumably, thoughts..
#629
February 8th, 2010 12:27
Kj,
Those comments on WOA from Michael O’Leary not Mouse Morris and I was quite encouraged by them. He’s basically saying that he wants to run WOA in the National (and at the end of the day it is the owner that decides) but they want to see what weight he gets.
WOA was entered in the Sandown race on Saturday and was set to run off 149 so I presume he will be given that rating next week. If Phil Smith keeps to his word and allocates Mon Mome (most likely top weight) 161 then WOA will carry a very reasonable 10-12 on the day. To me that would be far more tempting than taking on the likes of Big Buck’s, Karabak and Tidal Bay in the WH.
#630
February 8th, 2010 12:31
Could anybody tell me Snowy Morning’s best RPR in his last 8 chases? Be very grateful, gladly return favour if I can help with anything.
#631
February 8th, 2010 12:52
Admin: Yes please, please a dedicated ‘intentions’ or ‘runner updates’ thread for us to view news on whether a horse may or may not be running or any updates etc to save us wasting our dosh on an eventual non-runner. ASAP – PLEASE – thanks.
Re My Will – for me no winner’s class only saver bet and I don’t think Ruby will be on this year.
WAO yes I too interpret current reports as very postive – if good weight he will run.
Any one know of Trust Fund’s intentions? Garde type appeal – would probably flop in step up in class, but interesting..
#632
February 8th, 2010 13:00
hi crisp 73
Snowy Mornings best RPR in his last 8 chases was 152
#633
February 8th, 2010 13:15
Two more from Fredy Murphy’s yard.
First is Galant Nuit who I think is on the young side.
He was a lovely young horse who won at Uttoxeter with the 4 year old’s alllowance of 11lb in his favour. He was raised 15 pounds for that.
When he lost the 11 pounds allowance when he turned 5 his form started to tail off.
The summer he progressed and at cheltenham (November meeting ) he won a thriller where he picked up when asked at the last. He was helped by the soft ground. The plan is to go for the Eider.
New Alco is also aintree bound.
He suffered from foot trouble, so we to Ian Wright at Newmarket where he found that he was continually bruising his pedal bone. Sean Murphy, owner, decided to let nature take it’s course and left him to rest in a empty field.
Time healed him, the plan was the Hennessy but the trainer states he might not get in. He also says he runs well when fresh.
#634
February 8th, 2010 14:23
Looks like David Pipe really wants Over The Creek to run this weekend. He and New Alco have both been entrered in a 3m1f Class 2 up at Ayr on Saturday.
OTC has also been entered in a 3m Graduation Chase at Exeter on Sunday, as have Niche Market, Big Fella Thanks and Tricky Trickster.
#635
February 8th, 2010 15:55
Good reasearch The Stayer and Neil S. Hope Over the Creek does win and sneak in Aintree field but I doubt it. New Alco is also on my watchlist
#636
February 8th, 2010 16:04
Hi Guys – thanks for the heads up on Ballyfitz jumping, or lack of it. I did have a little tickle at large odds but will leave it at that for now.
I’m really trying to find a decent alternative to Niche Market, who is the only one left in my first string. I like Snowy but don’t see that his 30L beating by MM last year reads all that well, even with 11-8. I would say the 5.5L 2nd to Comply the year before was a better performance which may suggest he’s now firmly on the downgrade. To win at the 3rd GN attempt would be a huge feat.
Interesting as well, as Half Day advised, that Snowies best RPR over last 8 runs is a full 15 below his best of 2 years ago. I don’t want to knock the horse as have him in my top 6 but just feel he’s only there because nothing else has shown much so far. There’s still time though.
#637
February 8th, 2010 16:15
Charlie Mann has hit out at the programme of three spring-time Grand Nationals in the space of just 12 days.
Mann had hoped to run Saturday’s AON Chase candidate Air Force One in two out of the Aintree, Irish and Scottish Nationals but thinks he might have to settle for just one of those high-profile targets for his talented German-bred.
Mann, who says he is looking forward to Air Force One taking on Denman at Newbury this weekend, explained: “The programme book is so topped-up in April that it’s just crazy.
“Punchestown is just over a week after Aintree with the Irish National just a few days before the Grand National itself and then it’s just another week (after Aintree) until the Scottish National at Ayr.
“Air Force One hasn’t run since Punchestown last year and when a horse has been held up like he has, you want to be able to go for as many big races as you can.
“As it stands I’ll be pushing it to run him in Ireland and Scotland.”
More immediately, Mann is yet to book a jockey to replace the injured Noel Fehily aboard his former top novice chaser, who finished second to Madison Du Berlais in the 2008 Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury.
He added: “I do need to get a race into him, and if he can have a nice pop round behind Denman for some prize-money, that will be fine. The main thing is that he comes back in one piece.
“The alternative to Newbury, should that be off, is the CGA Chase at Wincanton, but one race I do want to go for is the Grimthorpe Cup at Doncaster as he has more chance of getting good ground at Doncaster than anywhere else.
“After that it will be a shot at one of the Nationals and I’m thrilled with his progress. I’ve got him right and am over the moon with him.”
#638
February 8th, 2010 16:42
Whats everyones thoughts on Taranis?
#639
February 8th, 2010 16:45
Showlad- fair point about My Will. I reckon that unless Snowy Morning steps up with an RPR well in to the mid 150′s (and handicapper puts him in under OR150) Ruby Walsh won’t ride that either. Arbor Supreme?
#640
February 8th, 2010 16:46
Thanks ‘Harry for RPR info.
#641
February 8th, 2010 16:52
Taranis – I would be absolutely amazed if he were to run and if he did I would be equally amazed if he were to get the trip.
#642
February 8th, 2010 16:55
So I take it no one has info on Trust Fund…
Hi Crisp, is Ruby tied to a number of trainers or does he have free reign (excuse pun, couldn’t resist)?
#643
February 8th, 2010 16:59
Eric’s charm anyone? Do like Air Force One too,if he runs well on return, he has 3 entries before GN.
#644
February 8th, 2010 17:00
Thanks Stayer. Yeah i thought that was an odd entry. He is 33-1 with bookies based on one comeback run???
#645
February 8th, 2010 17:10
Showlad, I think Trust Fund looks useful, could’ve been a contender in days of yore. No C1 place but his latest C1 runs were on heavy and all his recent wins have been on Good to Soft or quicker. Perhaps he’s been unlucky. If he got in off his mark, OR136, with his RPR143, could run well.
Uusually Mullins or Nicholls for Mr Walsh isn’t it?
#646
February 8th, 2010 17:13
A big positive to take from Snowy Morning this season is that he has jumperd quite well in his last couple of races – he was woeful last winter
He’ll be a different proposition on better ground over a longer trip too
He’s definitely in with a chance off <11’0
#647
February 8th, 2010 17:26
I agree about Snowy. He is(was)the value bet. Creeping down to 40-1 after i got him at 66-1!
#648
February 8th, 2010 17:56
Niche looks most likely winner
Then Snowy & COD look sure to run well
Then outsiders like OCC/Cane Brake/RCS if they get a run
Or if Paul Carberry or BJG ride anything interesting
Don’t like anything else really – think DA will be a wonder horse if he wins GN on faster ground (assuming not soft or worse) after 9lb rise and all his problems
#649
February 8th, 2010 18:10
Sat 13th Feb
Conna Castle
OCC
Snowy
Preists Leap
Siegemaster
all entered over 2m 4f at Gowran Park
Will be Snowy’s 4th run of the year (2010!) and send him over 100 furlongs for the season
#650
February 8th, 2010 18:13
“Pablo: think DA will be a wonder horse if he wins GN on faster ground (assuming not soft or worse) after 9lb rise and all his problems”
Agreed the 9lb rise is a real concern and his chance depends on him still being progressive and still not having shown his best yet(which I think may be the case)plus his allocated weight.
#651
February 8th, 2010 20:57
Its all a little dodgy isn’t it! DA agreed.
Have worries about all of them.
One week I’d decided after another face-off/ siderail chinning jump, that I couldn’t back snowy, then with prep fitness and with his ‘I’m still standing’ attitude (not to mention the 66s) I was in, I believe it possible, but ofcourse could get suprise aintree treatment which I think unfair esp when you haven’t won it and with that jumping… may never, love to see how a good round of jumping could translate.
While on subject of previous runners/ winners, COD not a horse that can go away at the finish me thinks, unlike MM, so will possible 3lb less weight make any difference to him actually winning, I’m thinking another MM will go past (BUT WHO!!?? and I’m worried he’ll be penalised for his distant beaten 2nd aswell.
bless him.
Not going to advise taking him down the inside even though last year was empty lucky for MM! imagine that gap will be filled back in this time.
But my point is he can only run his style…solid, round the outside 6m! 3lb less would still only place is my feeling. Will back him when drifts after next weeks extra pound anyway
Not becoming enthused with latest fancies here RCS, PL no way! OTC, Eric, even my old chum MW unlikely.
Are we not missing something here?
We want something with finishing speed at the end of 4m+ of jumping, haa its easy!
#652
February 8th, 2010 21:15
Jackie, Eric’s Charm is in the form of his life, his recent 30f, C2 win off OR135 has put him up to equal his highest ever OR143. 2nd in C1, at 30f. 18 handicap chases, 3 wins. Good chase/career win place strike rates. The questions are can he put together a left handed performance and will he run. Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock will give us the answers.
#653
February 8th, 2010 21:26
Anyone know One Cool Cookie’s intentions?
#654
February 8th, 2010 21:39
kj – that final sentence you’ve written is probably covered by the ’08 scottish national. So glad to see him back on the track!
#655
February 8th, 2010 21:43
Thanks crisp 73, hope he can, had a very small ante on him : ) Still have another 7 on my short list.
#656
February 8th, 2010 21:59
I hope Pipe decides to send over the creek to Exeter. That might be the perfect race to get his OR up by 5 or 6lbs . If he can hang onto the coat tails of big fella thanks and niche market , he might do a joe lively and finish 3rd and get ramped up 6lbs for his troubles , which in this case , would be exactly what he would be looking for.. its not over until the fat lady sings . but shes already practicing her vocals behind the curtains and the creek is in the last chance saloon !
#657
February 8th, 2010 22:01
Jackie/Crips is Eric intended for GN or no word?
#658
February 8th, 2010 22:39
I just started looking through stats when all entries were declared Showlad, and he came up in my dozen or so top horses, don’t know if the GN is his intended race or not.
#659
February 8th, 2010 22:40
Sorry should read intended or aimed at race : )
#660
February 8th, 2010 23:00
Thanks Jackie. Maybe it will hinge on how he goes lh at Haydock
#661
February 9th, 2010 06:44
The trainer of erics charm said that the owners want to run him in the national as phil smith described him as a national horse. Trainer was less convinced though. Can’t remember where I read it but I’ll try and dig it out
#662
February 9th, 2010 07:29
I think according to Timeform his jumping is suspect, they even give him a cross against his ratings.
Personally I wouldn’t want to bet on such an animal, doesn’t the 30/30 stats cover this situation anyway.
#663
February 9th, 2010 08:28
The 30/30 is covered as a stat – although by Class 2 and 3 races
But I don’t rate Eric’s Charm’s chances at all
Left-handed chase form = F,6,P,F,P – including P twice at Haydock and a fall early on in the Topham
He did win well last time out. I think the trainer described it as his National.
But what did he beat on soft ground at his track? Lorum Leader was soundly outclassed in the same grade next time and the most of the ones behind had wrong ground or have been regressive in recent months (except poor Russian Trigger).
He’s 12 now but has never run in the race before which implies that the trainer has never fancied it before and he wasn’t entered last year – bit too old to be having second thoughts and afterthoughts about
Recent horses 12 years old to have won the National were in a different league – Amberleigh House (Becher win & two Becher 2nds, GN BD & 3rd, Topham 9th – plus Grade 2 winner in Ireland) and Royal Athlete (favourite for Void race and 3rd in a Gold Cup plus Reynoldstown winner as a Novice)
EC not for me
#664
February 9th, 2010 08:30
Erics Charm is a right-hand track specialist. His last 4 attempts going left-handed – PU / F / PU / PU – the fall came over the National fences.
Under no circumstances can I have him for the National I’m afraid.
#665
February 9th, 2010 08:37
Ok so Party Politics was favourite for the Void race but Royal Athlete was certainly one of the favourites and he did win a Cheltenham handicap off 161
#666
February 9th, 2010 09:44
Excellent post Re: Eric’s Charm Pablo.
He was one of the ones I couldn’t fancy, but at the same time was worried about, if you know what I mean. A bit like Southern Vic was last year.
Your reasoning there though has pushed him over the edge into the ‘cant win’ pile, so many thanks!
This two week teaser between entries day and weights day kills me….every year!!
#667
February 9th, 2010 09:56
Ewok, yes would be great if you could find piece re trainer talking specifically re horse and GN.
Obviously great claims but only if horse can be successfully schooled to translate successes to left hand courses.
If any king of result at Haydock, then one to take note of, but currently a no no.
#668
February 9th, 2010 10:27
DE
I don’t tend to put a line through any horse but I think for 11 and 12 year olds the chances of them winning these days are fairly remote unless they’ve run in the race before (i.e. it’s not give him a spin around Aintree before he retires) and/or shown some class by beating some decent horses.
Mr Frisk – multiple fast ground handicap winner including off 154 – got his ground at Aintree
Seagram – winner at Cheltenham festival, 3rd off 154 in Racing Post Chase
Miinnehoma – winner RSA & 7th Gold Cup and rated in 150s
Royal Athlete – 3rd Gold Cup, won Reynoldstown, won handicap off 161 (entered for Void race)
Red Marauder – ran in race previous year, Class 1 winner at Ascot
Amberleigh House – Aintree specialist, Grade 2 winner in Ireland and 3rd in previous GN (also ran once before in race too)
#669
February 9th, 2010 12:45
Found it. it was on Geralds thread on the racing forum so i have cut and pasted it here. I hope he doesnt mind.
——————————————————–
Looks like it could be fun and games at the Canal Turn, if the righty Eric’s Charm is still standing:-
ERIC’S CHARM
12 b g Nikos – Ladoun
Staying handicap chaser who won off highest mark of 135 latest start when beating Lorum Leader 19 lengths over three miles five at Sandown December 5. Now 143 but has been competitive off that calibre of rating in the past.
“Sandown last time was his day but there will be others. The owners are very keen to have a crack at the Grand National so he won’t run again until after the weights have been announced. Phil Smith, the handicapper, is adamant he’s a National horse – I’m not so sure. Although he fell in the Topham, that trip was too short and put him out of his comfort zone.”
#670
February 9th, 2010 12:51
Jackie, dont give up on your small ante post just yet! If Eric posts a RPR141 or better at Haydock- I think Mon Mome did last year and he finished 9th- he will have the stats on his side.
#671
February 9th, 2010 13:52
If Snowy wins the Red Mills chase on Saturday, then I think the 112 horses boils down to 2.( steady, it’s only my opinion )
Dream Alliance V Snowy Morning.
( phil is not going to let Snowy run off OR147 10.07 anyway, more like 10.11 )
Unless –
My Will wins a chase – Gone To Lunch or Erics Charm or Character Building wins the Blue Sq. Gold Cup – Parsons Legacy wins a chase – Trabolgan is treated like Royalty by uncle Phil or 37 horses above him don’t run.
If none of these things happen then it’s – Mr. DeMille, I’m ready for my close up, roll cameras and action – the dream is on.
#672
February 9th, 2010 14:08
Hi Miinehoma. Surely a win for SM on the eve of the weights would be the worst thing for his camp?
Will he not just be looking for a good work out on Sat in pref to a win?
#673
February 9th, 2010 14:08
Im slowly starting to come round to the Snowy Morning school of thought.
I may have confused myself between him and another horse, but weren’t a lot of people seemingly put off him before the 2008 run due to supposed sub-standard jumping? or am I thinking of somebody else?
Oh, and before anybody says horses who place in a national dont come back to win it 2 years later, or something similar, just remember what we all said about Cornish Sett’s chances last year because he had finished unplaced in the previous year?? And who went and won it in the end……
#674
February 9th, 2010 14:10
I know his rating might be too high but Notre Pere fits a good trend.
No Welsh National winner has ever run in the SAME SEASON G. Nat (ie 4 months later) in the last ten years but all the placed horses (last ten years) who have run in that SAME SEASON G. N. have an appalling record.
Yet…Supreme Glory wins W.N. and 16 mths later 2nd in G.N.
Silver Birch wins W.N. and 28 mths later wins G.N.
Mon Mome 2nd in W.N. and 16 mths later wins G.N.
Bindaree won his W.N. 20 mths AFTER his G.N. win…
Notre Pere won W.N. 16 mths (come G.N. day) ago…
Yes he is high in the ratings but that was a good 10l 4th in the Irish Hennessey on Sun…
I know people will take an opposite view but give me NP over DA …as the Welsh Nat trend of SAME SEASON runners in G.N. can’t be ignored…
Thoughts??
#675
February 9th, 2010 14:11
And the above post to my previous proves my point…Cornish Sett was 2nd in the 08 W.N. and was hammered at Aintree 4 mths later….
#676
February 9th, 2010 14:39
Dream Alliance can win the race, but it will be hard.
Notre Pere cannot, given the weight he will be conceded to all and sundry.
I wish I knew who you were – we could have a matchbet!
#677
February 9th, 2010 14:54
I make it Niche Market vs Snowy Morning vs COD
With only a back to form showing from Cane Brake (in which case he is the best handicapped horse in the race for me on his handicap wins & Gold Cup 5th – if under 11’0) or signs of life from One Cool Cookie or Royal County Star to stop them (again if both under 11’0)
Plus anything that comes from this year’s Gold Cup and has a decent weight in GN
#678
February 9th, 2010 15:31
“Nick Mannion
I know people will take an opposite view but give me NP over DA …as the Welsh Nat trend of SAME SEASON runners in G.N. can’t be ignored…
Thoughts??”
Plenty: There is no logic to this line of thought- how can it be wrong to win any national in a GN year? DA is the horse who came 2nd to Denman in the Henessey the year Denman won the Gold Cup – cant get much better other than NM efforts which equal it this year.
Now remember how many people on this site said a french bred could not win the GN or how about the many that said you couldnt win the GN with blinkers? We need to think outside the box a bit- “expect the unexpected”!
The dream lives and it can be done but as others have said it will be hard – he needs 11.00 or less (and the less the better the chance).
Well I going to stick with my own judgement this year. This site has got me all hot and cold with regard to SM as the 4th bet i am looking for but his jumping is just so error prone (but I might have a stakes saver on him as so many on here rate him). No I think AS may suprise us all yet but time is running out and he could well turn into another Southern Vic (all promise and no action) but what a beautiful weight he will likely get – then a good run and you will all wish you had got on early (or not!!)
Its the calm before the storm time or what? – the waiting is getting to me – just cant seem to find much new now and so many GN runners will not run until after the weights are out.
#679
February 9th, 2010 15:45
It also makes no sense Systemsman because it dismisses one stat (no winner with more than 11_01 since 1983) for another one (no welsh national/Grand National double in 15 years or so) which is without question weaker because it hasnt applied for long AND because more horses have tried to break it and have failed!
84 horses in the last ten years have run with more than 11_01. None have won.
#680
February 9th, 2010 16:03
It is a trend…am not sure how we can apply logic to a trend as a trend is ‘factual’ and I love it when people dismiss a trend by applying/quoting another trend….doh…plenty of logic there then!!
I was asking re thoughts to NP and it seems the general thought is ‘too much weight’ which I think is fair enough (it fits a trend apparently…) but I am personallly put off DA because of the W.N. trend….accepting that no winner has attempted the double in same season these last ten years…
So, in conclusion, I accept NP will have too much weight (and trainer says needs soft to heavy) but do not accept this idea that ‘dismiss a trend when it doesnt suit but apply another to shoot down a different tip you don’t agree with’….no logic there at all…;)
#681
February 9th, 2010 16:04
Hi everyone,
We now have a new main thread – please start using that one from now on.
Many thanks
Darren
Admin
#682
February 9th, 2010 16:08
Systemsman, I’m also favouring Arbor Supreme over Snowy Morning and My Will because of the ‘possible’ weight and handicap chase stats. Looking at the entries again I think bottom weight could easily be 10-0 OR137? At this moment, cross referencing every stat that I have with OR137 as bottom weight, Arbor Supreme, Eric’s Charm, Gone To Lunch, Snowy Morning, Trabolgan would appear to be the most likely winner. I’ve backed Dream Alliance but I think he would need bottom weight to be no lower than OR140. Roll on weights day.
Daniel, not all of us said unplaced can’t win!!
#683
February 9th, 2010 16:18
The one thing I would say these days re weight/handicap in the National is that it is far more compressed as about 10.6 seems to be bottom weight (not sure what the lowest weight winner/s of last 10-15 yrs have been but I bet there is a trend for a spread of winners weights!) and more horses up the higher end of the handicap tend to run so a horse on say 11.4ish will both be getting weight and not giving as much to ‘fewer’ …which you dont have to go back to far to verify…Bindaree (for example) on 10.4 and 136 wouldn’t get a run these days….and thats only 2002..
Again these are just observations/thoughts…not written in stone or offered as the ultimate tip…
#684
February 9th, 2010 16:19
I make SNOWY, MY WILL and NICHE the classiest horses with the best predicted weights and who will go on the ground. They are also the right age 10, 10 & 9.
One horse everyone seems to be forgetting is HELLO BUD. He is the one horse in the race who has supreme stamina who should get a low weight. He loves good ground but didn’t like the heavy conditions on his last two starts. He also likes to be in the leading pack. I have a little bit on him at 55-1.
#685
February 9th, 2010 16:20
Hi people
Just to let you know that the original source of that Eric’s Charm quote was the attheraces stable tours:-
http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=505651&raceid=&title=Oliver+Sherwood+Stable+Tour&lid=features+-+stable+tours&ref=Features+-+Stable+Tours&nav=features&sub=&day=Tue
Gerald
#686
February 9th, 2010 16:24
Oliver Sherwood also has a website that it may, or may not, be worth keeping an eye on:-
http://www.oliversherwood.co.uk/News.php
#687
February 9th, 2010 19:47
Well I’ve reviewed my stats and so on and have it down to 14 at the moment on trends/stats alone. Will be updating my site over the next week and will post a feature here once the weights are announced. But for ur info:
1) Dream Alliance
Cloudy Lane
2) Beat The Boys
3) Casey Jones
4) One Cool Cookie
5) Can’t Buy Time
6) Eric’s Charm
7) War Of Attrition
9) My Will
10) Snowy Morning
11) Royal County Star
12) Mon Mome
13) Hello Bud
14) Cane Brake
All others ruled out for one reason or another at the moment.
#688
February 9th, 2010 19:50
The smile was a typo – not a betting hint. I love the profile of Dream Alliance but will want some rain and I have a hunch for MY WILL but this is not a clear picture. I will elaborate I promise but little free time at present, sorry.
#689
February 10th, 2010 18:34
Can anyone figure out why BFT is declared to be running in a graduation chase this Friday (Ruby on board), 4 days before the weights are announced?? Seems an odd decision given that he remains on a mark of 149 for The National….
#690
February 10th, 2010 20:22
Hi everyone,
Love the insight and debate on here. Served me well last year when backing State of Play early anti-post!
I assume everyone is ruling out Tricky Trickster due to age?
My early thoughts for what they are worth include Niche Market,My Will, Black Apalachi and Snowy Morning.
Niche Market’s win in the Irish National put him straight on the short list. His run behind Denman only solidified him in my mind and I think he shows up best in the spring horse.
My Will one year on, I think is cracking value. If he gets a good weight he could be a steal at current prices.
Black Apalachi looked all over the winner last season before falling. Immediately after last year;s race I thought he was a bet for next year. He has done nothing this year but is being trained specifically for the race. This weekend will be interesting regarding him.
Finally SM. He seems to have found his zest for the game again with some solid runs. Whether the handicapper will be kind to him and give him a squeak time will tell but at current odds he is definitely work a few quid each way.
#691
February 10th, 2010 20:24
Sorry for the typos above. Written a little too hastily.