Comments on: Grand National Tips 2010 (3)

By: admin

admin — Sat, 23 Jan 2010 11:06:56 +0000

Hi everyone,

We have a new main thread open now so please begin using that for your ideas, stats and fancies. Please also have a look at giving your positives and negatives on Black Apalachi as a starting point for the thread.

Thanks

Darren
Admin

By: Pablo

Pablo — Sat, 23 Jan 2010 11:05:16 +0000

Every GN winner since 1990 has won 3 chases – so <3 could be seen as a negative

By: Pablo

Pablo — Sat, 23 Jan 2010 11:01:41 +0000

Crisp – not sure how useful the winning 4 races stat will be

Last year only Big Fella Thanks, a 7-y-o, hadn’t won 4 races in his lifetime

So 39/40 had

30/40 had won 4 chases in their career before last year’s race – which isn’t suprising considering virtually all of them were rated in the 140s+

Those that hadn’t were:
1 chase win = Battlecry, BFT
2 chase wins = Idle Talk, Fleet Street
3 chase wins = Arteea, Preists Leap, Hear The Echo, Himalayan Trail, Reveillez, Kelami

By: crisp 73

crisp 73 — Sat, 23 Jan 2010 10:30:11 +0000

After looking at lifetime wins of GN winners, last 16 runnings, 28/32- 2nd and 3rd placed in GN, last 16 runnings had also won 4 races. 3 of the 4 that didn’t had lifetime win/place strike rates of 48% or more, the other won or placed 5 times at 32f or more.
To recap in the last 16 runnings, 47/48 1st, 2nd, 3rd placed in GN had won 4 races or more or had a lifetime win place strike rate of 48% or more.

In the last decade 29/30 1st, 2nd, 3rd placed in GN had won at least 4 races. The other had an 75% lifetime win strike rate/ 80% lifetime win, place strike rate.

By: SILVER BIRCH

SILVER BIRCH — Sat, 23 Jan 2010 09:28:07 +0000

Last word on Maljimar guys before I go and have a hearty breakfast! . He reminds me very much of Red Marauder who was a classy animal who was mostly campaigned at 2m 5f . Before the national he had only one 3 mile win to his name and that was in a hurdle race at Market Rasen. He Did however have a Henessy fifth which helped him qualify for Crisps stats . Maljimars 2nd in the William Hill Chase still looks good and i think this horse could be a springer in the market in betwen Cheltenham and the National . Hes down to 85s now , mostly because of my pizza money but im going to keep a close eye on this fellow as the weeks unfold… the quest continues

By: SILVER BIRCH

SILVER BIRCH — Sat, 23 Jan 2010 09:19:22 +0000

Yes guys , im starving this morning . maybe a moment of Fri evening madness ..who knows ! back to normal duties today and looking forward to the big races at haydock and ascot today..!

By: miinnehoma

miinnehoma — Sat, 23 Jan 2010 06:02:03 +0000

Blimey Silver, that was some pizza – Maljimar now 85 with Betfair.

By: miinnehoma

miinnehoma — Sat, 23 Jan 2010 04:11:10 +0000

Silver Birch, what can I say, can I be frank, after looking at Maljimar’s profile in regards our stats, I would have had the pizza.

But I see the potential, perhaps in 12 months time if he wins 3x24f+ (1x28f+) or has a top 3 in a key race, then I would take 200/1.

By: SILVER BIRCH

SILVER BIRCH — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 22:52:16 +0000

One last post on Maljimar – he was between 25-1 and 33-1 to win the Grand national last year so i dont understand why he is 200 to 1 on betfair. my pizza moneys gone on . if anything hes only enhanced his claims this year by finishing 3rd in that cross country race in december …

Whether he is quite good enough to win remains to be seen but looks great value at that price

By: SILVER BIRCH

SILVER BIRCH — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 22:29:39 +0000

Ha ha – thanks guys . I appreciate your quick responses on Church Island – guess its in the lap of the gods of the handicapper . lets hope he gets a run – based on his Irish national runs he deserves it . it will be fascinating to see what the handicapper decides..Ive been doing a bit of cheltenham studying on the excellent page that Neil pointed out where you can watch all the last years races and also the december mtg. One horse whos name keeps popping up in all these key cheltenham races is maljimar. 7th in a paddy power, 2nd in a Ritz – just pipped by Wichita Lineman and ran 3rd in a 4 miler cross country at Cheltenham . I think this horse could be a fascinating outsider . Ive sacrificed my friday night pizza to put a few quid on at 200 to 1 on betfair .. I think there is a largescale perception that this horse doesnt stay , but given he fully stayed 4m at cheltenham and no disgrace to be beaten by garde champetre on softish ground, we have a horse with both stamina and speed . i think last year he just missed out by 1 to get into the race . Hes trained by the guy who got Philson run to place in the race before . He has been known to be a bit of a nutcase in the prelims ( the horse not the trainer )but i reckon this is a decent horse who very few of us have talked about up until now …already three runs under his belt . passes a lot of the stats but maybe falls down on not having won over 3 miles . just got beat a whisker though by wichita lineman .. interesting little horse