Grand National Tips 2010 (3)
The new year is here and things are starting to hot up on the ante-post scene for the Grand National 2010.
Are you getting a short-list that you feel happy about? Have you actually had many bets yet? I’d be interested to know how many of our contributors have made an ante-post wager on the Grand National before the new year and what inspired them to do so if they have. And those that haven’t what is stopping you from investing? Do you believe that the Grand National Odds have a lot of fluctuation still to make? Are you waiting for the entries or the weights?
Let us know what strategy you employ when making an ante-post bet on the Grand National and if you have had a bet, who was it on?
Maybe you fancy the yet to race in 09/10 Tricky Trickster? The National Hunt Chase winner is now trained by Paul Nicholls and the Champion Trainer seems to keen to hide his new charge from the eyes of the handicapper?
If you do fancy Tricky Trickster he can be backed at 16/1 with Boylesports
This post has 609 comments
#1
January 7th, 2010 13:47
No ante-post bets from me as yet, my strategy is to wait for weights day, as you may find Irish runners whose OR looks on the low side carrying a few extra pounds to give them a chance of making the final 40, or some of the main fancies may be penalised for Aintree or other form, and find themselves carrying too much.
Weights day will probably see the list topped by some classy types who will not be declared on the day, so I will be looking at anything given between 9lbs and 22lbs less than Mon Mome who I assume will be top weight on the day; therefore topping and tailing at (race day weights) 11.01 (historical max winning weight unless you are Red Rum) and 10.02 (which would equate to adjusted GN OR of 139, assuming Mon Mome is top weight from OR 161), same bottom OR as last year.
Admittedly the bookies will be adjusting their odds to take all this into account on weights day, so I may lose some value through waiting, but with so many variables still in play I’m reluctant to get involved any earlier.
#2
January 7th, 2010 14:38
Gammers
I see the theory behind having a weight cut-off at 11-01 (statistically sound) but do you think compression of the handicap, which has been happening for a number of years, will eventually allow one of the ‘classier’ horses to prevail?
#3
January 7th, 2010 14:50
Potential list (using current OR’s)
11.10 161 Mon Mome
11.09 160
11.08 159
11.07 158 Air Force One
11.06 157 Snowy Morning, Cloudy Lane,
11.05 156
11.04 155 Y Don’t Push It, Black Apalachi
11.03 154 Comply or Die,
11.02 153 War of Attrition
………………………
11.01 X 152 Y
11.00 X 151 Possol, Dream Alliance, Cane Brake, Nozic, Darkness, Ollie Magern,
10.13 150 My Will
………………………
10.12 X 149 Y Big Fella Thanks, Miko De Beauchene, Tricky Trickster, Joe Lively, Roll Along
10.11 X 148 Y Niche Market, Backstage, Beat the Boys, Gone To Lunch
10.10 X 147 Can’t Buy Time, Will be done
10.09 X 146 Preists Leap,
10.08 X 145 State of Play, King Johns Castle, Kornati Kid, Chelsea Harbour, Vic Venturi
10.07 XX 144 Y
10.06 X 143 Church Island
10.05 X 142 Y
10.04 X 141 Maljimar, Iris de Balme, Mr Pointment, Arbor Supreme
……………………..
10.03 X 140 Y Hello Bud
10.02 139 Y Offshore Account, Irish Invader, Cornish Sett, Knowhere Beroni
10.01 138 Y Silver Birch, Hennessy, Coe
10.00 XX 137 Trabolgan, Brooklyn Brownie,
……………………..
09.13 136 Y Southern Vic,
09.12 135 Irish Raptor, Oodachee, Butlers Cabin
09.11 134 Over The Creek
09.10 133 Cerium, Always Waining, A new story
09.09.132 Ballytrim
09.08.131 L’Aventure
The ones I don’t think will head to Aintree
Notre Pere – Surely the Punchestown Gold cup would be too much of a lure after winning so easily last year
Gone To Lunch – Scottish national
Arbor Supreme – Poor prep
Is Vic Venturi’s rating of 145 right?
Who mentioned all the 3′s the other day? Didn’t plan for it… but…potentially 33 could be
#4
January 7th, 2010 15:10
Sure VV was 154 after Becher & that’s what it says on Irish ratings site
Think RP is having a mare with its ORs
#5
January 7th, 2010 15:15
Thats what i thought VV’s rating was. I can’t seem to find many horses rated 153-161 likely to run in the national
#6
January 7th, 2010 15:49
UK horses 153-161
Mon Mome (FR)
Air Force One (GER)
Cloudy Lane (GB)
Dont Push It (IRE)
Halcon Genelardais (FR)
Star de Mohaison (FR)
Irish horses 145+
Notre Pere (FR) (2001) 163
Black Apalachi (1999) 155
Vic Venturi (2000) 154
War Of Attrition (1999) 153
Casey Jones (2001) 151
Snowy Morning (2000) 149
Irish Invader (2001) 148
Backstage (FR) (2002) 148
Northern Alliance (2001) 147
Preists Leap (2000) 146
Cane Brake (1999) 145
King Johns Castle (1999) 145
Chelsea Harbour (2000) 145
Ballyholland (2001) 145
#7
January 7th, 2010 15:56
Cane Brake off 145 – nice run after weights out & lump on job – 3lb higher than Paddy Power win off 11’3
How can handicapper justify upping his chase rating based on form this season – P after travelling ok for a long way in Lexus? Never run at Aintree before.
Fingers crossed.
#8
January 7th, 2010 16:19
Obviously Cane Brake’s strike-rate is low but his win rate is decent – my undisputed #1 off 145-148 with a decent run under his belt
Good form as a 6 or 7-y-o (like so many National winners) plus injury has meant a drop in the ratings (like a fair few winners)
#9
January 7th, 2010 16:37
Did like Cane Brake earlier in the season, but are you convinced he’ll get the national trip?
Trainer looks to be doing a great job with him, dropping his rating to 145
#10
January 7th, 2010 16:45
re-cane brake, are you convinced he will get his prefered ground.
alot of PU in form when running yield or good,and probually prefers plenty give.
#11
January 7th, 2010 16:57
Not convinced that he will get the trip – but none of the horses seem to have as good a pedigree as Numbersixvalverde or Silver Birch, for example
Dosage seems to be inconclusive – may or may not get the trip – has won 2 competitive 3 mile handicaps in Ireland on bad ground plus a staying on 5th in GC (beat State Of Play & My Will) – has touch of class and the GN is the plan from what I can gather (faced an impossible task when pulled up in Irish National giving 17lb after claim to Butler’s Cabin and running off 159 – to put that in perspective Papillon came 2nd in Irish off topweight off a mark of only 133)
Two Oscars have run 10th and 15th last year and two Presentings (both fell) – so we have no idea that those types will stay
As Roselier said on the Betfair AP forum Sadler’s Wells has been a positive influence though not as a direct Sire (Bob Hall only runner pulled up)
Supreme Leader has had 2 2nd places (What’s Up Boys and Supreme Glory) from 9 attempts – Can’t Buy Time (fell last year) and Arbor Supreme go this year
Can’t find a ‘great prospect’ on breeding – if anyone can please let me know
Neil? Ben?
#12
January 7th, 2010 17:05
Ground will ride good to soft and Silver Birch didn’t have any problem with the watered surface
He didn’t have a prayer of winning the Lexus and it wasn’t the plan, likewise in Irish National would have been a tremendous performance off 159
These days they try to make the ground fair for everyone
#13
January 7th, 2010 17:06
That Roselier chap seems a nice chap on BF (compared to some). Good to see he had some positive comments on CI – wasnt sure if i should tell him the target though!
Are you sure Cane Brake’s dosage is incomplete. It shows;
DP = 7-1-20-8-0 (36) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.19
Septimus is set to go to stud, that could make a big influence into future staying chasers
#14
January 7th, 2010 17:08
Actually One Cool Cookie might be the one on pedigree – but right-handed etc as discussed before
#15
January 7th, 2010 17:17
TC – agreed – also think Roselier might be Kendal Cavalier on Racing Forum
By inconclusive I meant 1.00; 0.19 is on the edge – could be interpreted either way
36 dosage points is also much higher than any other winner I think – though how relevant that is I’m not sure – Hegdehunter the highest with 28 (1.15; 0.11)
Cane Brake will be my pick provided weight & performance next time out are ok – otherwise will stick strictly to my 3 top stats picks
This is no Rambo situation developing here for me (I hope!) but I need one on my side (it was Casey Jones until he missed the Hennessy!)
#16
January 7th, 2010 17:22
future prospects on pedigree;
One Cool Cookie
Smoking Aces
Aiteenthirtythree
Valentine Vic
Oscar Time
Oscar Looby
Tamadot
Companero
Anothe JP horse in there, Oscar Time and One Cool Cookie the ones to look out for i think
#17
January 7th, 2010 18:00
Someone mentioned L’Aventure earlier as one who could sneak in after another good run. She is actually my favourite horse as produced my biggest ever win and entertaining watching her! However, in the one time she ran in the National (2004 or 2005 from memory) she got way detached and plugged on in her own time. Although she has a new trainer now, can’t see her being entered. Nicholls never entered her at any stage after the year she ran I don’t think. Would love it if she did though, especially if it was soft! Hence I have just placed a sneaky £2 on her!
#18
January 7th, 2010 18:05
L’Aventure was 7 when she took on the national, since then she’s fallen away a bit. She is now a very experienced 11 year old who looks to be rejuvenated under her new trainer. Will need another win if she’s to enter the national frame though
#19
January 7th, 2010 18:18
Re breeding of this years contenders, as I’m sure you know Un desperado is in Possol and Maljimars breeding, sire to Nil Desperandum:( Philson Run and Cornish Rebel, definate proof of stamina but generally part of the oh so nearly crew. Solid.
Oscar (out of Sadlers Wells) ‘new kid’ sire, impressive mid distances so far, doubts? this year represented by Casey Jones, Offshore Account (neg- Strong Gale / 15th last year, reads- mistake bechers, hampered &left in front at bechers second time, weakened 2 out blundered, hmm) and Tricky Trickster ( ++ pos Montelimar- Hedgehunter and Monty) I think he has best breeding re this race, but inexperienced 7yr old.
Off track here, but Money Trix has a nice pedegree, Old Vic, Buckskin. Has a 2nd at Aintree 25f, never raced further, almost all races 1st or 2nd, only raced 7 chases age 10- why not race let a horse like him go further?
#20
January 7th, 2010 18:30
re church islands mark
he was entered in the hennessy off 144 so you would think he would have the same mark for aintree therefore guaranteeing him a run
btw lads excellent work
#21
January 7th, 2010 18:31
money trixs 2nd at aintree was C1 hurdles, but anyway nice to play owner/ trainer
#22
January 7th, 2010 18:52
Ben – yes, I think at some point a horse carrying more than 11.01 could win it, but have to draw the line somewhere, so for now I’m sticking with the stats.
#23
January 7th, 2010 20:17
Does anybody know what the plan is with Garde Champetre. He would be a faboulous ew bet – maybe not good enough to win but surely hed be staying on at the death when others have cried off. He was being well touted for this last year but then was pulled out at the February Decs stage . Do you reckon Enda Will bodyswereve aintree again … hes not bad on the stats . probably falls down on “placd in a c1 chase” and current OR . If there were any murmurings however of him taking his chance I dont think the handicapper would give him his current OR of 160 . Its a big “if” whether he runs but if he is entered could go well at a price
#24
January 7th, 2010 20:29
Well I really am going to have to fight the Arbor Supreme corner tonight. One or two people are making big mistakes.
This is one of the two/three best trend horses in the GN 2010.
Only one season run – wrong!
He has two runs this season not one! The season starts on 01.05.2009 so his run on 02.05.09 when he came 3rd counts (we either have a start date or we dont – a start date is a start date!. I am sure he will also have at least one more chase run anyway after weights are out.
Dosnt meet the 30/30 trend – well almost and more than Niche Market. You cant get closer than this (and would only require a small tweek in the 30/30 trends which we should expect)
Part of the 30/30 trends is 3x24f wins of which one should be at 28f or more (this is very important for Irish trained horses who run in Ireland – i dont think AS has run outside Ireland)
2 x 24 or more (29f and 30f!)
1 x 20 (just 4f short)
+
2nd over 28f
4th over 28f
So if he won without another win at 28f or more the new part of the 30/30 trend would just change
to:
3x24f chase wins of which one must be at 28f or more
OR
3x20f chase wins of which two must be at 28f or more.
Only a very small tweek and we should expect this sort of small chage in any trends.
Dosage – perfect.
RPR spot on
TS spot on
OR spot on
Possible weight spot on.
Won Han chase worth 23K over 30f
Won Grade C Han chase worth 19K over 29f
3rd in a Grade A Han Chase worth 63K
Has won of Hy/Sft/Good so ground no problem.
Won and placed in large Han fields.
14 runs 3 wins. Good
Strike rate 57& – spot on.
Strike rate April 31st 2009 53.8% – spot on
Price profile perfect (see my earlier post).
Now 25/1 down from 33/1 and challanging for 2nd Fav – the money is going on.
So folks for me AS has to be in any top 4 list and the 25/1 will not last much longer – I expect his price to drop like a stone after the weights are out.
I will say this and stand by it.
Arbor Supreme will run in the 2010 Grand National.
25/1 will seem very generous on GN day – he may well be in the top 4 in the betting.
He should be in the top 4 of any trends list (for me he is equal top).
#25
January 7th, 2010 20:31
Most of Cane Brake Dosage’s comes from his sire Sadler’s Wells side 32 out of 36. Just to remind you there are five categories in dosage.
B=Brilliant (Speed), I=Intermediate (Speed), C=Classic (Speed & Stamina),S=Solid (Stamina),P=Professional(Stamina)
You got sire Sadler’s Wells himself (8 pts in classic and 8pts in solid).
Grandsire Northern Dancer (4pts in brilliant and 4pt in classic).
Great Great Grandsire Nearco (1pt in brilliant and 1pt in clasic).
Great Great Grandsire Native Dancer(1pt in intermediate and 1pt in classic)
Great Great Grandsire Hail To Reason (2pt in classic).Gr
Great Great Grandsire Forli (2pt in classic).
So to recap points on speed side is 15 points (half classic count ) and stamina has 17 points from sadler’s well side of the family.
His dam brings dosage points from two great great grandsires Exclusive Native (2pts in classic) and Grey Sovereign (2pt in brilliant), so that 3 points in speed and 1 point in stamina.
Total B=7, I=1 , C=20, S=8, P=0 DP (36) DI 1.00 (not counting the ones below 10 the last 10 out of 12 had DI of 1.00 or lower.
Example of winner’s with same DI (Amberleigh House and Monty’s Pass).
His CD +0.19 (CD as a range of -2.00 to +2.00).
No recent winner has exact CD but you’re really looking for a negative figure however Ben say upto 0.25 is just acceptable.
Examples of winners with positive CD Hedgehunter, Amberleigh House, Earth Summit.
To put the Dosage in crisp’s terms 50-50 at least I think. Crisp if figure is wrong please correct. Thanks
#26
January 7th, 2010 20:42
Systems techincally you are right he did run on 2nd May 2009. However his run was in Ireland (Punchestown) and not this side of the Irish Sea. Ireland have a different start and finishes to their season.
His next run came 13 December 2009 at Cork.
You got May to December (isn’t that a tv series) anyway let’s be serious here 7 months break inbetween, so would his May run help keep him fit for his December run (don’t think so.)
I think in the Irish season his May run was last season, but more importantly the horse would probably feel his May run was last season too.
#27
January 7th, 2010 20:51
Systems before you get on your high horse let me publish a quote about Arbor Supreme made on 29 Nov 08 at Fairyhouse by his trainer Willie Mullins.
He going to get hiked in the ratings for that performance. He could be a horse for Aintree although the fact he has won here makes the Irish National another possible target.
He finished 14 out of 28 in the Irish National, 57 lengths behind Niche Market.
Could he be trying now for Aintree?
#28
January 7th, 2010 21:08
Re: Arbor Supreme
Neil S “Could he be trying now for Aintree?”
Systemsman on a very high horse says “yes you bet he is”.
#29
January 7th, 2010 21:13
Systems
i like Arbor Supreme, and am willing to put a line through the Irish national run but at the same time is it possible he ran into a bit of trouble? I would also argue the case that he’s had one season run and Mr Mullins is struggling to run a few at the moment. The key factor he misses out on though – is that he hasnt put in a performance LH yet. He’s been entered in neptune/hennessy/welsh national chase (all LH) but been withdrawn – is something amiss with his jumping? He needs to put in a performance LH – maybe the willhill at Cheltenham (JP had Wichita last year). I will be watching him for the rest of the season but he needs to put a couple of stats right for me
#30
January 7th, 2010 21:23
Had first bet today, Dream Alliance 33/1 e/w. If bottom weight is as it was last year, OR139, then he’ll carry 12lbs more than bottom weight. (No horse since fences were modified post 1989 GN has carried more than 12lbs more than bottom weight) Hopefully if Mon Mome, or may be something with an even higher OR, is top weight and this encourages a fe more on the 150′s to run and entries are on a par with last year than bottom weight could easily be OR140/141, Dream Alliance would carry 10/11lbs more than bottom weight.
Systemsman, I feel that possibly one or even two of our top stat horses will emerge from now until 19/3/10. Arbor Supreme could be one of them. Whether or not AS eventually fits those 30/30 ‘Top5 Hennessy etc’ stats you and many others are right to suggest keeping an open mind even if we have found a solid two or three who fit all the stats we’re using.
Miinnehoma, I’ve looked at those lifetime NH flat, hurdles and chases win place strike rates % – you knew didn’t you!- well, I don’t think it’s looking good for Niche Market, Hello Bud or for fans of, me included, …. Church Island!! I think it’s a thumbs down.
As on previous posts, 1st column April 30th 1 year before, 2nd column 31st December, 3rd column race day.
Miinnehoma 87-87-82
Royal Athlete 54-54-53
Rough Quest 56-61-62
Lord Gyllene 75-86-90
Earth Summit 50-48-45
Bobbyjo 45-42-42
Papillon 57-55-48
Red Marauder 77-65-63
Bindaree 71-67-61
Monty’s Pass 65-66-63
Amberleigh House 47-48-47
Hedgehunter 59-67-65
Numbersixvalverde 64-57-55
Silver Birch 56-53-55
Comply Or Die 60-56-58
Mon Mome 50-52-50
Only Earth Summit and Bobbyjo’s figures have been significantly affected in a negative way by looking at lifetime s/r rather than just chase s/r. Both of those started season with a chase s/r of 60% or more.
Niche Market 36-35-?
Church Island 36-34-?
Hello Bud 36-35-?
#31
January 7th, 2010 21:26
Silver, I think it really unlikely Garde Champetre will run, he is a money making machine in the cross country, risk too great.
#32
January 7th, 2010 21:28
There are several Irish horses which I am keeping an eye on, some which don’t meet stats, but won’t be betting anything until weights. They are, in order of interest:
Siegemaster
Arbor Supreme
Casey Jones
Snowy Morning
Vic Venturi
One Cool Cookie
#33
January 7th, 2010 21:33
While on Ben’s blog there an anon person who uses Dosage only he say he uses horses with points in all categories and twenty percent win strike rate so confronted him and they said for national they use a forty two win and place strike rate. Recent welsh national winner Dream Alliance meets these stats, how does he fare on the thirty, thirty stat, anyone?
#34
January 7th, 2010 21:36
Crisp – Why should previous hurdling performances affect the national picture? I’m sure someone will come up with a stat ruling Dream Alliance out next
#35
January 7th, 2010 21:38
dave chisnaLL in the darts, dream aLLiance in the GN?
#36
January 7th, 2010 21:43
TC, why indeed? But people use one or two hurdle races to compliment certain trends/stats. We use them in preps, people use them to satisfy winning over 24f, Red Marauder did it in a hurdle race. Like everything else any near misses need a caution mark but what the figures do, I think, is put us in the direction of good, consistent performers. Those three I named are way off the mark aren’t they?
#37
January 7th, 2010 21:52
Crisp ’73
Just thought you should know all the facts before you decided to back him. He might still be a cracker, who knows.
#38
January 7th, 2010 21:55
I can’t see how hurdle races should be counted. It’s going to favour certain horses more. A lot of the older horses will now have a spin over hurdles to freshen them up before a big chase (no intention of winning). Some horses may be given about 10 novice hurdle races at the start of their career. Whereas another can go straight into handicap company. I think its important to stick to the chase s/r
#39
January 7th, 2010 22:00
Neil S, people keep writing that the 30/30 stat is top 3 in a National, etc.
Dream Alliance winning the Welsh National counts , doesn’t it?
Makes the 2nd in the Hennessy superfluous.
Doh!
#40
January 7th, 2010 22:00
Fair point TC. Church Island has ran in something like 14 hurdle races, only placed in 2. I still think he has an e/w shout, especially at the price probably still available, because of his good chase s/r and performances in Irish and Kerry Nationals.
#41
January 7th, 2010 22:01
I think it’s important to stick to the main stats, they worked last year, those s/r are for the last 16 winners, but you could then ssy 15/15 winners were rated <148
#42
January 7th, 2010 22:16
If the stats call for lifetimes races, bumper, hurdles and chases you can’t start mixing it by using chases alone. Surely you get a confusing picture.
#43
January 7th, 2010 22:20
There is always going to be a stat ruling a horse out. With these s/r though – how about a horse thats placed in every hurdle start, then places rarely in chases being PU nearly all the time, claims a poor/fortunate 3rd in a c1 handicap in an 8 runner contest – to hit the national stats, is that enough evidence over fences?
#44
January 7th, 2010 22:21
The magnificent seven…
Cane Brake
Arbor Supreme
Snowy Morning
Dream Alliance
Niche Market
Miko De Beauchene
Comply Or Die
#45
January 7th, 2010 22:27
TC I hear what you saying such an example may meet the stats on paper but not the spirit. Point is have the horses who formed the stat been counted this way. If not then a recalculation is in order.
#46
January 7th, 2010 22:28
However, one thing I’d be concerned about is winning the Welsh National and the Grand National in the same season . . .
1) The H’capper will put him up, and the horse won’t have the chance to slip down the rankings.
2) The horse has to peak for the second time in the same season.
#47
January 7th, 2010 22:36
the last stat put up is performances in all races. I much prefer the chase s/r%
#48
January 7th, 2010 22:36
Don’t use strike-rate myself
Would expect winners to have a decent strike-rate because they need to be decent horses but it depends how they have been trained, what races they have competed in etc
Do like horses to have shown class in first 2 seasons over fences – won at least one big handicap and/or have shown RPR 150+ AS 148 so marginal) – sign of a touch of class, especially when well ahead of OR
Then it’s a question of getting the handicap mark right for the big day and hopefully showing some form during the season…
#49
January 7th, 2010 22:44
Miko de Beauchene is interesting; when he was with Robert Alner he said he was an out and out stayer and a good jumper. I don’t like to be rude about jockeys but Andrew Thornton did seem to come off him a lot and I did wonder if a change of jockey would help. Doesn’t seem to have a price with the big three bookies yet, though.
#50
January 7th, 2010 23:29
Pablo, neither do I. This is the first time I’ve seen the 30/30 stats in action. Hope it finds the winner.
#51
January 7th, 2010 23:34
Neil – The 30/30 stat
A top 5 Hennessey/top 3 Irish,Scots Welsh National/top 2 in race over GN fences/
B 3 wins at 24f including one at 28f or more
(A is 16/19, 12/12)
#52
January 7th, 2010 23:47
thoughts on Dear Villez please? Would write out the positives and (fewer) negatives but it’s late LOL
Thanks
#53
January 8th, 2010 00:13
Good thoughts maureen re miko. Its good to discuss different horses that may have come off our lists for valid reasons, but may come back in for valid reasons if we are open to it.
Like the magnificent seven Pablo, which ones Yul Brynner!
I have been a bit worried we may be agreeing for the sake of being agreeable esp regarding those at the top of our top6 list and this could result in not even talking about the winner, let alone finding another Rambo (bigger concern).
Is it safe to assume some of you xtreme hard workers have done such a thorough job that nothing has slipped the statistical net?
Has anyone checked out ALL horses with no prices?
Can something come into the picture thats not even listed yet?
I’m trying to think of a good example… nine de sivola
#54
January 8th, 2010 00:22
COD is Yul Brynner I reckon – 1st and 2nd to his name
I think the real worry will be if Mon Mome doesn’t show up because we are assuming 161 as top weight – perhaps need a plan B with OR 155 – OR 158 as topweight – there seem to be a lot of horses around the 148-151 mark
#55
January 8th, 2010 00:31
Yes come on! you know I love them
COD can’t win if MM doesn’t show, I think a plan B is always sensible. Just been thinking of getting on a few now as prices are moving, although its dangerous as several are up there ‘borderline’ in potential weight terms.
#56
January 8th, 2010 00:36
Kj – “been thinking of getting on a few now as prices are moving”
One of them is certainly moving quite fast and i’m glad i backed CI before xmas
Who’s Yul Brynner – think i’m too young!!
#57
January 8th, 2010 00:46
Get outta here! no just joking.. Magnificent Seven is a classic western (film) and Yul a unique actor, made before my time too, but you gotta watch it, its part of your education
they got horses!
#58
January 8th, 2010 01:01
sorry I’ll stop winking now, its a nervous twitch bought on by too much studying of ifs, buts and maybes…information overload! my computer seems to be having a fit too. CI is missing off the bookies lists now? not that he is gonna make me part with money, its weird tho and still says OR 128!
#59
January 8th, 2010 01:05
worth a watch then, i’ve got a lot to lern! any national horses in there?
I’m assuming CI will run off 143 (irish rating) his price is really starting to drop on BF
#60
January 8th, 2010 01:08
I thought you meant they were all going to be ridden by Frankie when you said magnificent 7. Yes that would change things no Mon Mome but what about Mon himself his last hurdle run was impressive. What if he carried top weight to victory because of his hurdle runs giving him a fitness edge.
#61
January 8th, 2010 01:10
nine de sivola not best example as has many bookies quotes, fails several stats, hasn’t actually won a chase! but nearly did at marathon distances, not been out this term,.. but you get what I mean have we missed one that is similar but meets more stats?
#62
January 8th, 2010 01:12
MM winning would be great! we haven’t talked about him having any chance, no points on our list ( same as last yr!)
#63
January 8th, 2010 01:14
no chance of 100-1 though, shame
#64
January 8th, 2010 01:20
There are a lot that just miss out on the stats (but thats why the stats are made), i went through our top 12 and what they need to put right in their profile (nine de sivola is another good example as would just need a chase win), mentioned a few others but its unlikely to see any more horses enter the frame now, with the hennessy and welsh national out the way. We’ll have to watch the class 1 chases from now on to see if there are any more horses gaining a top 3 etc. Maybe we need a list of horses who are the ‘stat hitters’ and a ‘nearly’ list
#65
January 8th, 2010 10:29
Someone commented on my Facebook page saying he thinks MON MOME will win again. Think the guy is a point to point trainer, has also trained a Hereford National winner. He thinks a mark of 161 is win-able for last years champ, also points out that Mon Mome has a terrific burst of speed that only lasts for 2 furlongs and the horse needs to be held up for as long as possible for that burst of speed to be effective……
#66
January 8th, 2010 11:19
Interesting case Ben
The more I look at last year’s race it was
a) either an astonshing performance from Mon Mome
b) or the horses below 11’0 were a bad bunch stats-wise and MM was fitter than most of the those above 11’0 and accelerated away from a bunching field that has slowed down after BA unseated at 2nd Becher’s. The two false starts also meant that some horses had expended more energy than normal. The race was run 12 seconds slower than Hedgehunter’s win.
Now any of those statements/opinions in b) on its own might not make much sense but combined they tell me that the form is perhaps not all that it seems.
And that 11’10 is beyond Mon Mome with plenty of solid candidates around the 149-151 mark.
#67
January 8th, 2010 12:09
There are many people including those in the racng press who are stating that GN winners will now have 11.00 or more or win on OR 153 or more.
For me 2009 for the odd year out not another new trend. So I am confident this years winner will be OR 141 to OR 150 (10.04 to 10.13)with the ouside possibilty (but this is unlikely and would requre a new trend to be set)of a low of OR 137-140, 10.00 to 10.03 and a high of OR 150 – 152, 10.13 to 11.01. This is based on Mon Mome running on weight of OR161.
I could be wrong but its a risk I am willing to take to narrow down the field.
This year I am going to stick to my own assessmnet which does ofcourse take into account others peoples work. Last year I did question Rambo and almost got shot down for doing so and then went with the crowd big time myself – never again!
I think our poll will find the winner in the top 10 at least.
We have some very good Class 1 winners this year with good trends so I am confident we can get that winner and that holiday in the sun paid for by the bookies.
#68
January 8th, 2010 12:15
Yeah, I can’t see Mon Mome being able to win off 161. Mon Mome is a very good handicapper, I would say thats his level, but to win a race such as the National from a mark of 161 you need to be an exceptional horse and I don’t think you could ever class Mon Mome in that bracket…..
#69
January 8th, 2010 12:20
I don’t think Silver By Nature is heading to Aintree but what if he was whats are people’s view on him, does he fare well on the stats, or any other points of view.
#70
January 8th, 2010 12:33
Hedgehunter wasn’t able come back and defy a rating of 156 and he was good enough to finish 2nd in a couple of Grade One races including a Gold Cup. I don’t think Mon Mome is in that class so faces a near impossible task off 161.
#71
January 8th, 2010 12:56
Mon Mome was the winner of what has turned out to be a poor national, this years runners rated 141-150 look a lot stronger (3 national winners and possibly a hennessy winner. The only one i think could go well again is My Will who has a few more runs under him this time
#72
January 8th, 2010 12:57
Systemsman – I agree
The compressing of the handicap hasn’t really affected the GN yet – Cloudy Lane top weight last year (WOA didn’t run) and Mon Mome likely to be top weight this year
It does affect the AP betting market – Denman last year before weights and Exotic Dancer (RIP) will he/won’t he run?
But come race day no affect – yet…
#73
January 8th, 2010 13:04
The Stayer
Excellent comparison between Hedgehunter and Mon Mome, that shows exactly what last years winner is up against….
#74
January 8th, 2010 13:19
1st of a big thank you to all the people who have put in many hours research on our behalf n order to find 2010 grand national winner.
Systemsman
very interested in your arguments for arbour supreme,however I see he was not on the list of 36 that fitted the pre Xmas stats that you said would include the winner, was he missed or did he not qualify as I haves narrowed the list down to 8 with doudts against some actually running in the race,I don’t want to miss out on any contenders,as last year being blinded by Rambo meant my definitive list on race day was 4, only 1 not backed Mon Mome,thanks
#75
January 8th, 2010 14:01
Interesting article/interview with pro-punter Andy Gibson in today’s Racing Post. He comments on the recent renewals of the Welsh National and the poor record of horses that COMPLETED the race in the remainder of the season. The gruelling nature of the race maybe leaves it mark for a while after the race…there are exceptions obviously (mon mome & Notre Pere last year for example).
#76
January 8th, 2010 14:14
i think we’ve seen that happen this year with the hennessy, all bar What A Friend and Snowy Morning (maybe Barbers Shop – 3rd in a poor KG) have either put in poor performances on their next run or haven’t got back on the track yet just shows how gruelling that race was
#77
January 8th, 2010 18:20
Half day harry uou really must read all the posts (i did not post a list of 36 that fitted the pre xmas stats). This is what i posted on 21st Dec (note there are now three Grand National Tips threds – two are full up – this is NO 3).
I strongly urge you to read the posts from all the many great stats/trends people on this thred not just mine – i could be wrong. I will a lso myslef be looking and rechecking my work against the polls on this site (2nd poll after weights are out)
My post on 21 Dec – in which Arbor Supreme IS included.
“In no order
Niche Market
Arbor Supreme
State Of Play
Hello Bud
Character Building (no run so far)
Gone To Lunch
My Will
Snowy Morning (only won at 24f)
Parsons Legacy (he’s back!)
Church Island
Joe Lively (no quote on Oddschecker so far)
You can probably discard Character Building* and Joe Lively* but we will keep them in for the moment incase they do run.
In order:
Parsons Legacy 22+ OR 139 RPR 153
Church Island 22+ OR 143 RPR 150
Gone To Lunch 22 OR 149 RPR 159
Joe Lively* 22 OR 149 RPR 165
Arbor Supreme 21++ OR 142 RPR 148
Hello Bud 21++ OR 142 RPR 145
My Will 21+ OR 150 RPR 161
Character Building* 21 OR 145 RPR 150
Snowy Morning 21 OR 149 RPR 167
State Of Play 20++ OR 145 RPR 165
Niche Market 19+ OR 148 RPR 154
A surprsie or two dont you think – Niche Market last of 11! Parsons Leagcy top!
Well thats the points (I could explain but it would take ages it includes the pre Jan 1st Stats and the 30/30 stats etc)
Who do I personelly like: Any of the above could win but ……
1. Hello Bud – will give his all and will do well – but will he win? This horse will not let us down – will be there or therabouts!! Loves Aintree.
2. Arbor Supreme looks great especiely if he comes 2nd/3rd in Welsh Nat (dont wont hie to win).
3. Gone to Lunch
4. Niche Market – just cant be ignored
5. Parsons Legacy – great profile.
6. State Of Play – must have a chance of OR 145 (if allowed ro run of this)”
………..
Now I have a confession to make – for some time I was under the mistaken impression that Arbor Supreme nened a 28f chase win – well he already has that and more. He just needs a 24f chase 1/2/3 to have a perfect profile (and i am prepeared to give him the benefit of the doubt anyway on what he has achieved already over long distances). It goes to show you must check your own work again and again – i have missed out on at least one GN win in the past by making a small mistake and not spottig it.
My short list has now changed due to the work of others and my further research. I no longer rate Hello Bud and Parsons Legacy as highly. Arbor Supreme, Church Island, Niche Market, Gone To Lunch (needs a 1/2/3 this season), Cane Brake (new))all look good.
You will have to read my GN Proability Forcast Part 2 to see the full list – coming your way soon. Also check out my price profile posts which offers an alternative view on the winner – another one coming up very soon.
#78
January 8th, 2010 19:11
Systemsman
sorry for the confusion,I never meant to imply it was your list,here is the list I refer to
Back to basics. I did this list a few weeks ago, so I might have a few wrong and some horses might still make the list (3×24+ with 1/28+)
Using oddschecker’s GN betting list and the 30/30 stat - 5th Hennessy etc. If the stat holds then the winner should be on the list.
Niche Market
Blach Apalachi
Comply Or Die
Vic Venturi
State Of Play
Hello Bud
Dream Alliance
Mon Mome
Character Building
Notre Pere
Nine De Sivola
Garde Champetre
Silver By Nature
Gone To Lunch
My Will
Irish Raptor
Butlers Cabin
Rambling Minster
Parsons Legacy
Oodachee
Silver Birch
Kilbeggan Blade
L’ami
Merigo
Miko De Beauchene
Trabolgan
Over The Creek
Church Island
Flintoff
Iris De Balme
Cornish Sett
L’Aventure
Himalayan Trail
Air Force One
Mr Pointment
Brooklyn Brownie
I was only asking if Arbor Supreme needed adding to this list or does he not qualify on these particular stats, I have read and appreciate all contributions to the cause,however we are following strong trends to lead us to the winner,and I really don’t want to repeat last years mistake and miss the winner,many thanks systemsman for your time
#79
January 8th, 2010 20:19
TC I was going to study Presenting Offspring because looking at his Dosage he looks to have lots of stamina. His points are B=2, I=4, C=2, S=10, P=8 DP total 28, DI 0.37, CD -0.69.
These figures suggest that he’ll bring stamina to any of his off springs.
I know that a few/ lot of you are not keen on Presenting.
Then I asked not on a dosage angle which sire’s are good for National and you replied Busted. Good as Sire or Grand Sire. Well Busted is Presenting Grand Sire meaning he’s Presenting’s offspring Great Grand Sire. Surely you can’t support one and not the other if they in same family?
#80
January 8th, 2010 20:58
Neil – I know this is a dilemma – what does Presenting do that negates Busted (if indeed Presenting is a bad thing)? Also the sample of Presenting’s to have run in is still very small
If Presenting is ok then War Of Attrition – Busted on one side & Strong Gale on the other – does Strong Gale cancel out Busted?
I think it’s an indicator rather than an exact science
#81
January 8th, 2010 21:14
Very good point Neil!
I don’t subscribe to the view that the Presenting lot don’t stay marathon distances. I’m sure I did some research a while back and I don’t think there was a huge number of Presenting offspring that had actually tried past 3m2/3f. As you point out Busted is in the presenting pedigree and he has a fairly large influence on the National. The influence’s Presenting passes on certainly suggests that his offspring should stay the National trip.
#82
January 8th, 2010 21:23
Referring to Niche Market?
Whilst the figures are very strong suggesting there is a lot of stamina. Presenting has been a very successful sire and has produced horses who are generally very strong gallopers who travel very well in their races. However can they maintain that over 36f, based on other ‘Presenting’ horses it would look doubtful. He has only recently produced a 4 mile winner in a very weak class 3 race.
The two more noticeable long distance ‘Presenting’ runners are Hennessy (McCoy superride!!)who has a lot of stamina on the dam side with Roselier and obviously the other is Niche Market
Many others that have attempted trips of 28f+
Just trying to name some recent ones
Out The Black – scottish grand national – travelled brilliantly all through the race, when push came to shove alongside Hello Bud he couldnt find anything
Coe – Travelled well throughout the welsh national in conditions he should have relished but couldnt find anything in the last few furlongs – (he was struggling before he hit one hard)
The King of Angels – summer national – travelled well throughout but couldnt find anything
Niche Market could well be the exception, but there seems to be a great pattern with the ‘Presenting’ horses (travelling well – till almost ‘hitting the wall’ and finding nothing). i can see a similar pattern happening again in the national with both WoA and NM travelling well but almost stopping 5-6f out
As i said there could well be an exception but i wouldnt be confident of neither WoA and NM getting 36f
#83
January 8th, 2010 21:30
Ive just being going through Betfair just to check there arent any little gems in there we have
missed . the one that sticks out like a sore thumb is Joe Lively .. 280/1 . is there something worng with this horse ?- does anyone know if hes injured ?- systems man has already pointed this horse out – so he fits just about all the stats – hes ran in a welsh national and henessy and keeping very good company over the last few months . hes going to be nearly 2 stone better off with mon mome on 2008 welsh national runnings . is this a dark horse lurking ? or is he the price above because the trainer has stated hes not going got the national or injured. i cant see much worng with this horses profile other than he needs to bounce back to form in the next 2 months . but surely that is not impossible ? – anybody any thoughts ?
#84
January 8th, 2010 21:31
Strong Gale seems to bring speed. Strong Gales Dosage B=12, I=7, C=13, S=2, P=0 total profile 34, dosage index 3.00, centre of distribution +0.85.
I not entirely sure but Strong Gale’s off-spring are better at shorter distances.
Busted (whose offspring is Presenting via Mtoto) B=6, I=0, C=6, S=2, P=36 total profile 50, dosage index 0.22, centre of distribution -1.24. These figures to me suggest he brings lots of stamina.
Probably why TC suggested busted.
Pablo I don’t think Presenting is a bad thing, but over the weekend I intend looking at four-mile plus races over the last decade to see how his offspring did, and was the a good answer to why they didn’t win or run well. Nothing else to do while this snow hitting the country.
You mention War. (what is it good for, absolutely nothing.) sorry Pablo my little sense of humour there. War has got both Busted and Strong Gale as great grand sires, Busted on the male side and Strong Gale on the female side.
I no expert but if you look at their CD Busted is the stronger and indeed War dosage goes like this.
B=0, I=1, C=3, S=8, P=4, DP=16, DI=0.19, CD=-0.94
His dosage suggest that busted side of family is stronger and he has plenty of stamina.
Busted himself has solid points while Strong Gale does not have anything directly.
On Dosage alone the no logical reason to leave War out, but then you’re a dosage expert as you done it in the derby.
#85
January 8th, 2010 21:41
Silver Birch – i got Joe Lively added to BF as he was a good stats fit, think he will head to the national but then realised the ‘strong gale’ factor
Is there not areason why more Presenting horses haven’t been targeted at longer distance races (theres enough of them!!)? To me there’s a clear reason
Joacci the only one to have run in the national
#86
January 8th, 2010 21:46
txs tc – knew there had to be a catch
so his breeding’s letting him down – i might sacrifice my chicken boona tomorrow night and put a few quid on him at those prices – worth a dabble for a few pounds . ill keep a close eye on him .. maybe theyll send him for the letheby and christopher again – ran a blinder last year – although wouldnt want him to win – that OR of 149 looks very lenient if he can recapture last seasons form ….
#87
January 8th, 2010 21:55
TC Brooklyn Brownie repesented Presenting last year and Fell.
#88
January 8th, 2010 21:55
JL very good on the stats but saves his best for Cheltenham, worth a couple of a quid though. Hopefully see him at the end of the month at Cheltenham
#89
January 8th, 2010 22:48
Is the Welsh National/Hennessey factor one that applies to horses a year or so after they have placed in those races [or, in the case of the RSA @ 3/4 years!]? There was a thread about this a while ago but it’s too far back to find it. It’s easy to find the winners of those races but not the placed horses.
#90
January 8th, 2010 23:16
Mon Mome did finish second in a welsh national a few years before winning his national last year. Ideally i go for the current event, but a previous event should not be ignored. This is what I think myself and what I’ll be implying from now on.
#91
January 8th, 2010 23:17
Will post a price/confidence update tomorrow on all selectons makes interesting reading.
#92
January 8th, 2010 23:28
Half day harry I do apologise – its me thats confused (too many posts). Arbor Supreme as I have explained only just fails on the all important 30/30 trend (which is why he was not in that list that was mine). He needs a 1/2/3 in a 24f chase to meet the 30/30 trend and would then have a perfect profile. I for one would include him it the list as he is so very close and has won at 29f and 30f. But if we are going to stick my the letter of the trend he still needs that extra 1/2/3 in a chase this season which i am confident he will get (if he didnt get it it would only be a very small tweek in the 30/30 trend anyway – something we should expect for the odd trend or so).
Hope this helps.
#93
January 8th, 2010 23:31
Maureen if you don’t want to subscribe to racing post, then sporting life provide the same info. Click racing, then search, type winner of race, click name, click race and full details will appear.
#94
January 8th, 2010 23:36
Correction
Re: Arbor Supreme – should read:
“he still needs that extra 1/2/3 in a 24f or more chase this season”
#95
January 8th, 2010 23:46
Maureen inbetween type winner’s name and click name forgot to tell you click the big search button. Although it’s obvious. To get a certain race click date of race. PS YOU DON’T HAVE TO TYPE WINNER’S NAME IN. YOU CAN TYPE IN ANY RUNNER FROM THE RACE.
#96
January 9th, 2010 00:40
Royal County Star
Hits most trends – dodgy dosage but only 8 dosage points
On my reserve list
#97
January 9th, 2010 02:00
Pablo earlier you asked what Presenting does to negates Busted. I don’t think in theory he does but one avenue to think about if he did is dilution. The further back busted is in the pedigree line the less his effects. Another angle could be the dosage pedigree of the Dam.
#98
January 9th, 2010 06:53
Thanks systemsman will now x ref with other info and see if he would qualify, will let you know result
#99
January 9th, 2010 09:30
Interesting to hear Paul Nicholls on the Morning Line today say that the lack of racing was not having an adverse effect on the majority of his string and that he’s still keeping them tick over – if anything the Novice hurdlers were the ones he’d be concerned about. Said that if the cold spell went on much longer it would then become a problem but all systems go for Cheltenham (and Aintree I suppose).
#100
January 9th, 2010 10:35
Pablo – also in the racing post Paul said his two “main ones” for the national were tricky trickster and big fella thanks – he didnt metion my will – doesnt mean to say it wont be running but i wouldnt be lumping the mortgage on it yet either …..
#101
January 9th, 2010 10:41
Silver Birch thanks – did he say anything about when we might see TT next or running plans for the horse?
#102
January 9th, 2010 11:16
Pablo – unfortunately no mention of running plans but reading what he has said, hes keen to go with these two,particularly if notre pere turns up as he believes that will secure a weight lower than eleven stone for both tt and bft….
#103
January 9th, 2010 11:48
Follow The Money – an alternative views (Review 2)
Well I have now checked all the runners listed on Betfair. We are looking for runners who have a grapth that runs from left to right (high to low)to show consistent market confidence and we have one or two surprsies about who cant win.
I will not list all runnerse – it will take too long just the big names and those mentioned often. If a runner it not listed it either means the evidence is inconclusive or has no hope at all (especiely if a very big price). Remember these are not my views its what the research shows.
* = in our top 25 list runner.
CAN WIN THE GN 2010
Tricky Tricster 21/1
Black Apalcahi* 21/1
Niche Market* 21/1
Possal* 24/1
Arbor Supreme* 32/1
Miko De Beauchene* 80/1
Church Isalnd* 80/1
Possibles – improving gapth line (downwards)
Big Fella Thanks* 24/1
Cant Buy Time 60/1
The market can change so it worth noting who stays in the list above/below and who comes out over the next 12 weeks.
CANT WIN TH GN 2010
Parsons Legacy* 230/1
Rambling Minster
Vic venturi 34/1 – take note
State Of Play 44/1
Notre Pere 40/1
Denman 60/1
Casey Jones 230/1
Northern Alliance 360/1
Old Benny 90/1
Cane Brake* 90/1 – take note!
Gungndu 260/1
Mr Pointment* 140/1 – take note!
Joe Lively 170/1
Cornish Sett 340/1
Darkness 220/1 (poor thing!)
Irish Invader
Southern Vic
Over The Creek*120/1 – take note
Unlikely to win GN 2010 (grapth going clearly upwards)
Gone To Lunch* 75/1 – take note. Not looking good at all (heading for SN?).
Dont Push It* 85/1 – take note
Hello Bud* 50/1 – take note
So there we have it – some to avoid, some to hope for (those not mentioned)and some who look good.
The key is to check who comes in to each list and price as we go along.
From our top 25 these look best(given in order on our top 25 list)
Niche Market
Church Island
Black Apalachi
Big Fella Thanks (a possible only)
Miko De Beauchene (looks intersting, a Hennessy winner but strike rate low)
Arbour Supreme (still in there!!)
Possal
Top 25 to avoid – cant win/unlikely to win
Hello Bud (on unlikely list)
Gone To Lunch (on unlikely list)
Dont Push It (on unlikely list)
Parsons Legacy
Casey Jones
Cane Brake
Over The Creek
Mr Pointment
#104
January 9th, 2010 11:52
Notre Pere could mean a load more horses under 11’0.
Shame the horse isn’t as good as they thought – would have preferred him to go to Gold Cup and leave the National picture clearer
The trainer might procrastinate right up until the last minute over the ground – like he did in Ireland and for Scottish
I’m waiting until race week – too many things up in the air
#105
January 9th, 2010 11:55
A few of them on the avoid list will not even be going like, Denman whom the is a thread about saying he’s not going.
#106
January 9th, 2010 11:56
Miko De Beauchene is not a Hennessy winner. Welsh National you mean.
#107
January 9th, 2010 12:38
I think Notre Pere would go well, if he gets soft ground, even off a big weight. I could see him placing.
On the Mon Mome front, firstly of we accept, I don’t, that 2009 result was a freak are we saying the whole race was a freak or just MM’s victory because if we are just saying MM is a freak then do we say Comply Or Die would have won that race, say, 8/10, because he was carrying 11-6! And taking that approach, well this year we could have heavy conditions(not had won for 9 years so we must be due one) or a pile up or whatever. The one unusual thing about last year was that it was a slowish race and who’s to say it won’t happen again. But whatever conditions,situations come up in the race the GN does seem to be always won by horses with a lot in common and because of that is a stat friendly race.
Playing devils’s advocate for a moment, a bit of fun, looking through chase win chase s/r% and handicap chase win s/r% of last 16 winners.
1) 14/16 had a chase win strike rate of 20% or more. The two that didn’t had won 5 or more chases.
2) 12/16 had won at least 2 handicap chases, 4 that didn’t had an overall chase win strike rate of 20% or more.
So will the 2010 winner fulfil both of these stats?
1)a chase win strike rate of 20% or more / won 5 or more chases
2)won at least 2 handicap chases / win chase strike rate 20% or more
#108
January 9th, 2010 13:51
For me I think the best horse won on the day but I think that Mon Mome will struggle off his weight
The first four home had all won a handicap over 26f or more and had good key race form so it was no surprise to see them up there
But the quality of the field below 11’0 was poor
Perhaps that’s why we latched onto Rambo and made more of his Haydock win on heavy than perhaps we should – we wanted something to back under 11’0 – and unfortunately he didn’t take to the track at all
#109
January 9th, 2010 14:28
Hi there! Before I reply with my main theme I going to ask you all a question, which I want you to answer properly.
Would you say that Denman (if they decide to have entered him) would have had a chance of winning the National?
I thought that if they would he would have had every chance of doing what Golden Miller did in the thirties.
#110
January 9th, 2010 14:37
no to win, maybe yes to a place.
#111
January 9th, 2010 14:37
Last year i thought Denman would have a chance of winning a national, now i’d say no chance. Probably the best traveller and jumper i have seen through his races, but i seriously doubt he would last the trip
A lot has been discussed on the stats, but nothing at all mentioned on how each of the ones mentioned are to win a national. I still strongly fancy Church Island and i’ll explain later how i think Black Apalachi will help him win.
#112
January 9th, 2010 15:07
Always great to discuss previous winners Very few horses can WIN carrying over 11st let alone 11st10, in any good quality races really, the ones that can, do it time and again, but not going to happen in this race.
Hedgehunter was the best national horse in recent times after winning with 11st1, he was given 11st12 for 3yrs, shame:( came 2nd the following year after 2nd in GC, (fitness close to the national, just like MM! noticed that ‘days since last run’ stat has gone walkies) the further attempts were after little prep bacause of setbacks and both times he was hampered when progressing in to the top 10 on the 2nd circuit. I think he’d have placed certainly last time but not won. What a horse! He had plenty of C1 2nds and 1sts, with 11st3, 11st6, 11st10 in the GC and several 2nds with 11st 12!
Now MM is no hedgey, NO extreme weight 1sts and 2nds in C1 or C2. Last year and last time out look his best! but both races were nearing 30secs slow! says it all really. Even if GN is slow again, doubt he can get that turn of foot with 11st10. COD is no donkey and was routed to the ground with 11st6.
#113
January 9th, 2010 15:14
Hi TC I glad you responded to my question.
You say that last year you thought DENMAN had a chance. Yet you say Niche Market although top of our current list has a negative factor of being Progeny of Presenting.
Well Denman is also a Progeny of Presenting as I discovered when looking the pedigree enquery site and entering Progeny “Presenting”
#114
January 9th, 2010 15:19
Neil – having watching a great deal of ‘Presenting’ horses over the past year, it’s really put me off backing them beyond 28f unless its guaranteed good ground
#115
January 9th, 2010 15:26
Notre Pere lining up has real bonus potential for alot of horses re weight, BFT had 11st1 last year, 10st10 would be nice. COD could end up with 11st1 if treated fairly enough and why not! he was well beaten in the end last year Phil!
#116
January 9th, 2010 15:45
I think that the data of Presenting Progency staying four miles and beyond in top class company is inconclusive.
He’s had many progency, but only a handful of “Top Class” horses. Who mustly race around two and half miles.
For the record on theory I don’t see why they can’t stay the trip and maybe just like the “french bred stat” that would be corrected this year.
#117
January 9th, 2010 15:58
Looking back all the way to Red Marauder year of 2001. Don’t think I need to go back any further, I’ve come to the conclusion that with only two progency running of presenting in them years and both falling that Niche Market or any other Presenting progency ie Coe cannot be ruled out on breeding.
#118
January 9th, 2010 16:12
I know you’re all dying to hear this kind of thing from your mystic guru
If the race was run today ha! all the extra silly signs of the universe are pointing to dream aLLiance! only negative in real terms is winning the welsh nat ‘this’ year.
If you were looking to the welsh nat for a pointer this year Miko is lookin good.
DA born on 23rd, aLLiance owners 23 in number. hoBBs trainer, out of horses called Bien Bien and rewbeLL, could be his luck has been realised however in the welsh version.
Darts- chisnaLL in yeLLow finishing on buLL!
#119
January 9th, 2010 16:14
Think Presenting didn’t go to stud until 1995 or 1996 so he wouldn’t have had a GN runner until the mid-2000s at the earliest
KJ – your boy ChisnaLL is some player – and his Dad is great value!
#120
January 9th, 2010 16:24
yeah, he just said he was gonna go get drunk! darts with a hangover! hope mumma chisnall stops him, just wait til you win tmw mate!
#121
January 9th, 2010 16:26
KJ can’t argue with that DA is my second choice at this moment, being the national you got to have more than one horse running for you.
Might chance my mind when more data comes in (weights day, can’t wait.) However if our assumptions of OR and Weight are correct then this is unlikely.
#122
January 9th, 2010 16:29
anyone have a diary featuring weather pointers?
any pattern to what spring is like after a deep winter?
#123
January 9th, 2010 17:30
Not, really but from memory I do recall snow for The Thinkers Gold Cup. Delayed it a bit (enough for me to collect my wage and place a bet on him.)
Being looking at Racing Rascal’s website to see if I can throw up a new angle. The past twenty one years he gives in detail (1993 Void).
We all know that age stat you want 8-12 year old, well the past twenty runnings are as follows:
8 year olds have had a 10% record
9 year olds have had a 30% record
10 year olds have had a 25% record
11 year olds have had a 20% record
12 year olds have had a 15% record
9 and 10 years old have the best records.
Also looked at Weight. Highest winning weight was 11-01 or 155 pounds, lowest winning weight was 10-0 or 140 pounds.
Thats a difference of 16 pounds (inclusive) so to make things easy I divided weight into four groups.
140 pounds to 143 pounds (10-0 to 10-3) three winners 15%
144 pounds to 148 pounds (10-4 to 10-8) nine winners 45%
149 pounds to 151 pounds (10-9 to 10-11) five winners 25%
152 pounds to 156 pounds (10-12 to 11-01)three winners 15%
Weight ideally on stats then 144 pounds to 151 pounds (10-4 to 10-11) has a 70% chance.
So ideally you’re looking for a nine or ten year old carrying between 10-4 to 10-11 (inc)
#124
January 9th, 2010 17:31
TC I am inclined to agree with your Presenting opinions as expressed at 9.23 last night.
NM is still on my list, taking into account the good company he’s been in, some with low weight but some 11st top4s too, however can’t find a race that hasn’t been slow! I believe a slow race is his only real chance.
#125
January 9th, 2010 17:50
Weight carried depends on what top weight is and how many horses are running from out of the handicap
Table below shows number of runners by OR bands – tend to forget how many classy horses lined up for the void race (Esha Ness would have been a total trends-buster but probably wouldn’t have won anyway considering how many better horses stopped riding)
Year; <140; 140s; 150s; 160s; 170s
91; 0; 31; 6; 3; 0
92; 1; 27; 8; 4; 0
93; 0; 0; 34; 2; 3
94; 0; 28; 5; 3; 0
95; 0; 21; 10; 3; 1
96; 0; 20; 4; 3; 0
97; 0; 19; 16; 0; 1
98; 0; 34; 1; 1; 1
99; 0; 25; 6; 1; 0
00; 28; 9; 3; 0; 0
01; 30; 9; 1; 0; 0
02; 26; 9; 5; 0; 0
03; 23; 12; 5; 0; 0
04; 23; 10; 6; 0; 0
05; 21; 17; 2; 0; 0
06; 20; 14; 6; 0; 0
07; 17; 17; 6; 0; 0
08; 10; 22; 8; 0; 0
09; 5; 22; 13; 0; 0
The current shift seems to be more runners in the higher 140s and lower 150s and less runners below 140
This may be the first time a horse has run in the OR 160s for over a decade
The policy of reducing ratings of top horses to allow them to compete has had no impact on top weight so far because they haven’t turned up – it’s more of a subtle shift of more horses taking part rated in high 140s and low 150s – maybe as an indirect consequence of better horses being entered and then not making the race
#126
January 9th, 2010 18:10
KJ, isn’t it the year of the dragon? Dream Alliance’s syndicate from Wales!
Totally agree with you that Niche Market needs a slow race, I’d mentioned it before. Irish National was slow, hs win at Ascot was slow. Interestingly Venetia Williams commented on the Hennessy, from the Mon Mome angle obviously, and said that MM managed to stay with them for most of the first circuit because the pace was slow, look at the video if you can MM is right up there, never seen him do that before! Niche could win a National but I think it would have to be a slow run race.
#127
January 9th, 2010 18:11
Just to clear up the ‘Presenting’ issue, whilst I doubt them getting the national trip. I’m not ruling Niche Market out the picture as he is probably going to be a good ‘trends’ horse. It’s just purely my opinion and hopefully I’ve tried to justify those doubts
Now I wrote earlier the affect of Black Apalachi on the national so here goes
How can Black Apalachi help set up a national success for Church Island?
To start with I think it’s a tad naïve to rule Church Island out just because he hasn’t had that big chase win yet. I’m quite sure if he’d have won the Kerry national a lot more people would be talking this horse up.
Now the reason Church Island has been going from the front in his races is due to the fact he needs a strong gallop and is able to attack his fences with more ease. The affect the blinkers has had recently has brought out a lot of improvement in him and could be part of the reason as to why he has been pipped on the line (bet 365 and IN) and caught a little ‘flat footed’. To say he hasn’t a turn of foot though I think would be wrong, as seen how quickly he was closing at Sandown after going behind. Could there also be a case that he was leading for too long?.
I know it’s still 3 months away but how is the race going to unfold and what has this got to do with Black Apalachi? Assuming both horses get there as well.
Like most people I am expecting BA to go off in front again and create another strong gallop – exactly what CI needs, and he doesn’t need to lead this time. BA was beginning to create a gap between himself and others last year and providing he stays on his feet (hooves!) I expect the same to happen again and CI to be the one tracking him. BA with the lack of racing he’s had (assuming) and the weight carrying is more than likely to tire 5-6 furlongs out. By this stage a big enough gap may have already been created for others not be able to make up enough ground. This could well leave CI clear and with a decent jockey on for a change (hopefully Mr Geraghty) I think he will be hard to peg back. The question is, is there a horse with enough finishing speed to make up ground over 36f and is there another horse suited more by the strong gallop set?
That’s how I currently see the race panning out and I believe Black Apalachi will have his say in the race. If BA stays up then i expect to it to play to CI’s advantage, certainly won’t help Hello Bud
Think i’m getting bored!!!!!
#128
January 9th, 2010 19:42
I thought at the time that the pace in the Irish National was pretty fair and that the race was run at a decent gallop.
Church Island doesn’t normally hang around and he was clearly ridden to win the race so any negative for Niche Market in that race has to be a bad sign for Church Island too, doesn’t it?
#129
January 9th, 2010 20:20
The time of the Irish national may have been a tad slow but we don’t know how much quicker Church Island could have gone (could he have maide it more of a stamina test or did the amateur jock think he’d done enough?) he was caught ‘flat footed’ and still had a lot left in the tank, this was the same case in the Bet 365. The reason he got beat, i feel waS the blinkers. Is that likely to happen in the national bearing in mind he could have the company of Black Apalachi for a fair way? It would seem the stronger the gallop the better for him as seems to get into a great rhythm. I think he may well benefit with a decent jock on board also
#130
January 9th, 2010 21:04
W Mullins on Snowy Morning (from goracing.ie):
“Tomorrow, Snowy Morning will take his chance in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury. It’s a big ask to go over for a race like that first time out, but, with Denman in the race, it’s a rare opportunity for him to race off a light weight. He has just 10st 2lb, and I doubt he has ever had such a light weight to carry in his life.
He’s well and I’m happy with him, and I’m looking at the race as a kind of win-win opportunity. If he wins or runs well, the prize money is good; if he doesn’t, hopefully he will be dropped in the handicap, which might give him a squeak of getting placed in the Grand National in the spring.”
———————————————
“Last week, I suggested that, if Snowy Morning didn’t make the frame in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury, it was my hope that the handicapper might consider lightening his load in future. As it turned out, Snowy was beaten fair old way into eighth place behind Denman, and we got dropped three pounds for our troubles.
All in all, I wasn’t too disappointed with him, because the Hennessy is a tough race to tackle on your first run of the year. Nonetheless, I’m not sure if those three pounds would bring Snowy and Denman together – if we had beaten Denman by the same margin as he beat us, I think it’s safe to say we’d be going up more than three pounds!
Something salvaged…”
—————————————
Therefore, by my reckoning, Snowy is now on OR 147 – subject to any Aintree tinkering – although beaten 30L last year
#131
January 9th, 2010 21:20
Neil S
“Weight ideally on stats then 144 pounds to 151 pounds (10-4 to 10-11) has a 70% chance”.
This has always been my view and my OR/Weight Part 1 post also proved this.
Now who fits this best and at the top of our poll?
Church Island OR 143
Arbor Supreme OR 142
Niche Market OR 148
All look good (+ a few others)and also confirmed by my “Follow The Money” post.
TC we both agree that Church Island will be on OR 143 or thereabouts. The English handicaper always talks to his Irish counterpart before the GN. As a Irish National 2nd Church Island will be given OR143 (his Irish mark) or thereabouts (anthing up to OR 148 would be OK so no problems.)
Church Isalnd – thera re so many positives.
2nd in Irish National 2009 beaten only 2 lengths by Niche Market over 29f
4th in the bet 365 Gold Cup over 3Of
2nd in the Kerry National in Sept 2009 over 24f (93K race, Grade B)
4th in the Irish Nationl 2007 beaten only 43/4lengths by Butlers Cabin over 29f
There is no way the handicapper will place this horse on hs UK OR rating of OR128. A very kanny trainer if you ask me – well done to him.
In positive list after psotive list (trends, 30/30,Dosage (just take a look at those dsoage figures!),Folow The Money etc)
Amazing thing is the price you can still get. I predict with confidence that CH will drop the most in price of all the key runners when the weights are out (ofcourse I am stuffed and so is TC if he is given OR 128 – but it is just not going to happen) – get on while you can. Betfair 66/1 – dont wait.
#132
January 9th, 2010 22:06
Systemsman – in all likelihood Church Island will be in my top 3 stats picks, given a good OR – and he does look solid on the stats
Just doesn’t excite me as a good thing for the race – so happy to leave the price for now and wait
#133
January 9th, 2010 23:17
I can’t really get over excited about Church Island. Let’s have a look at his handicap record in England:
Dec 06 – Cheltenham 3m2f class 2 OR 141 – 9/15 – beaten 36 lengths – ‘weakened soon after’
Nov 08 – Cheltenham 3m1f class 2 OR 134 – 8/17 – beaten 31 lengths – ‘weakened after 3 out’
Feb 09 – Newbury 3m3f class 2 OR 136 – 2/8 – beaten 11 lengths – ‘stayed on run in but never any chance with winner’
Mar 09 – Ascot 3m class 2 OR 136 – PU/12 – ‘pulled up before 13th’
Apr 09 – Sandown 3m6f grade 3 OR 136 – 4/14 – beaten 2 lengths – ‘kept on same pace after’
Aug 09 – Ffos Las 3m2f class 2 OR 139 – 12/17 – beaten 100 lengths – ‘tailed off from 13th’
So, in his 6 races in UK, he has only really shown any type of form twice and has only stayed on once. The race where he came 2nd to Darkness would probably have been a 3rd if Church Island hadn’t crashed out.
#134
January 9th, 2010 23:51
Being doing more research. This time on OR of winners, the current handicap system goes back to 1990, which is why Little Polveir rating is only 70. Pre 1990 used to be based on 100 (i think) then they change it to be in line with the flat. Mr Frisk data is unavailable. So the data starts with 1991. I also found out quite by accident that winners of national don’t win many more races afterwards, if any. Do they put up a career best to win does it ruin them afterwards. Bad news for Comply Or Die and Mon Mome then if so.
Year Winner/OR (races won after), Top Weight Details
1991 Seagram, OR 148, (0), Fraze, OR 166, 11-10.
1992 Party Politics, OR 153, (2), Twin Oaks, OR 167, 11-7.
1994 Miinnehoma, OR 153, (1), Quirinus, OR 169, 11-10.
1995 Royal Athlete, OR 155, (0), Master Oats, OR 173, 11-10.
1996 Rough Quest, OR 152, (2), Young Hustler, OR 166, 11-7.
1997 Lord Gyllene, OR 149, (0), Master Oats, OR 173, 11-10.
1998 Earth Summit, OR 147, (1), Suny Bay, OR 170, 12-0.
1999 Bobbyjo (oh 14), OR 142, (0), Suny Bay, OR 169, 11-13.
2000 Papillon, OR 139, (1), Young Kenny, OR 155, 12-0.
2001 Red Marauder, OR 140, (0), Beau, OR 153, 11-10.
2002 Bindaree, OR 136, (1), Kingsmark, OR 155, 11-9.
2003 Monty’s Pass, OR 139, (1), Behrajan, OR 158, 11-12.
2004 Amberleigh House, OR 139, (0), Le Coudray, OR 155, 11-12.
2005 Hedgehunter, OR 144, (0), Le Coudray, OR 155, 11-12.
2006 Numbervalverde, OR 138, (0), Hedgehunter & Royal Auclair, OR 156,11-12.
2007 Silver Birch, OR 138, (1), Hedgehunter, OR 158, 11-12.
2008 Comply Or Die, OR 139, (0), Hi Cloy, OR 156, 11-12.
2009 Mon Mome, OR 148, (0), Cloudy Lane, OR 158, 11-10.
Taking the stats on OR you’ve got 136-140 8 winners (44.45%).*
Range 141-145 2 winners (11.11%).
Range 146-150 4 winners (22.22%)
Range 151-155 4 winners (22.22%)
Really make the first percentage 44.44 but when added together only comes to 99.99% so rounded up by .01.
So 55.55% chance the winning OR would be 136-145.
#135
January 9th, 2010 23:58
Bobbyjo real OR then would have been 128, but forced to race on 142.
For the purpose of previous stats and table took the OR on what he was forced to race on.
#136
January 10th, 2010 00:42
Also got details of void national. I would really count it in the stats though. Winner Esha Ness, OR 136. Top weight Quirinus OR 160, 11-10 who was flagged down at water jump.
#137
January 10th, 2010 00:43
I meant would not
#138
January 10th, 2010 01:12
Additional: while looking through my booklet on how to find the grand national winner I found details of Mr Frisk’s Year.
1990 Winner Mr Frisk, OR 149,(4), Top Weight Bonanza Boy, OR 165, 11-9
#139
January 10th, 2010 05:39
KJ – I’m interested in the weather forecast also – went to the Met Office site and this is their forecast for the winter period……………
…..”There is a 30% chance of a drier winter, a 35% chance of an average winter and a 35% chance of a wetter winter”. Maybe a bit of fence sitting going on or maybe they just don’t know either. They don’t go as far as a Spring forecast.
On a different subject, is it right that Dream Alliance should be dropped as a leading fancy because of OR increase to 151?
#140
January 10th, 2010 09:39
According to my research, no. The been four winners out of nineteen on hundred and fifty one or higher.
#141
January 10th, 2010 10:16
Agree that CI’s UK form looks a bit in and out, plus he’s had his ground more often than not and the Whitbread (Bet365 or whatever) at Sandown was a poor race by historical standards
Having said that I was impressed with him in Ireland and initially fancied him very strongly for the Bet365 (and he jumped well that day too)
His Autumn target was the Kerry National and he narrowly failed, last Spring his target was the Irish National and he narrowly failed in that (the Sandown race maybe came a bit too quickly) – the GN appears to be this Spring’s target
Should he line up the trainer will have him spot on no doubt – he always seems to perform well on the big day and he’s a big horse who jumps well and goes well in big fields
His pedigree looks good for the race
Likely stayer, jumps well, possibly off very nice weight – almost talking myself into backing him – but not yet
#142
January 10th, 2010 10:26
Hi all. Does anyone have to hand the latest MASTER KEY stats that they could post please?? Is it fair to say OR between 135 – 151?
Also, what do you think about Miko De Beauchene’s chances and will he even line up???
#143
January 10th, 2010 11:01
Hi Matriarch – im becoming more and more sweeter on Mikos chances as the weeks go by . We have a horse who has won a welsh national and finished 4th in another. He should safely get in with less than eleven stone on his back and hes guaranteed to stay the trip .. If he gets good to soft or even softer i think hes a major player . Its funny how his name keeps popping up on people shortlists but hes not the favourite “hot horse” at the mo. My only worry is that the Alners consistently kept him away from Aintree and im trying to find out the reason why . Was it because they thought he was too young or was it because they specifically didnt want him jumoing the aintree fences . Hes now with Venetia Wiliams,fresh from Aintree glory last year nd I would love if she gaves this fella a shot at the big ones in April. However at the moment nobody seems to know whether thats his target or not . Looking back at his form in the red square gold cup, i reckon hell think hes been let loose off 10-12 or so in the national . Lets hope they decide to go for it
#144
January 10th, 2010 11:22
The obvious next step for Miko is the Haydock race again after weights out
#145
January 10th, 2010 12:51
Okay, done my research and come up with profile of the ideal runner. This is assuming Mon Mome defends his title as top weight on 164 pounds (11-10) and his OR is 161. We should be looking at a nine or ten year old carrying 144 pounds (10-4) and 148 pounds (10-8) whose won a class one race of 25.5 furlongs or more. Any suggest anyone?
#146
January 10th, 2010 13:03
Good request Matriarch. Here are the MASTER KEY STATS list.
ALL the Team: Before we lose the plot and we’ve still TONS of time, can we work on amending/tweeking/adding/deleting to this master list.
It can then be used as the agreed yardstick and we can see how each potential GN 2010 winner shapes up. Just now there are 21 points. Maybe we can get this rounded down to the unanimous important ones. OK change/tweek/amend/add as we go. Put your point in and then change the stat (if neccesssary). Let’s try and get a lean, mean MASTER KEY set of STATS to compare all to.
Here are the Stats:
OR of above 135 on the day
Run in at least ten chases
Won a chase worth at least £17,000
Aged 8-12. 62/62, age trend.
Top 4 chase, top 3 hurdle this season, 43/43
Won 1 of last 10 chases
2-8 prep runs 28/28
2-7 weeks since last run 28/28
Weight less than 11-4, 27/27
Top 3 C1 chase, 25/25
Won at 24f or more, 39/39
32/39 placed at 28f or more, 3 of the 7 didn’t race beyond 27f)
RPR of 144 or more 20/20
RPR of 141 or more LH 20/20
2 or less career falls 12/16
The 30/30 stat (most important i think)is: A – top 5 Hennessey/top 3 Irish,Scots Welsh National/top 2 in race over GN fences or B – 3 wins at 24f including one at 28f or more
(A is 16/19, 12/12)
Run in 10+ Chases
Won a Chase worth £17,000+
Weight no greater than 12lbs above bottom weight
Top 3 finish in a Class 1 Chase over 3m+
Top 3 finish in any of previous 3 runs
TS of 128+
Last run no greater than 50 days
#147
January 10th, 2010 13:03
5 falls/ur is very worrying for Miko.
I think someone mentioned a few days ago that we should list any longer odds dark horse we are personally considering which may be off the radar a bit. My ones (99/1+ on betfair) are.
Maljimar 99/1 (needs to win over 3m+)
Irish de Balme 129/1 (needs to have some races and show some form)
Ballytrim 150/1 (needs to perform at higher level)
Siegemaster 189/1 (needs to perform over 3m2f+)
Casey Jones 189/1 (needs to drop a couple of pounds and not be travel sick)
Nine de Sivola 199/1 (needs to learn to win and actually get a couple of races in)
Joe Lively 239/1 (needs a top 3 finish without rating going back up)
One Cool Cookie 299/1 (need to be convinced he will head to Aintree)
L’Aventure 309/1 (needs another win to push up rating and not convinced she will be entered)
Boychuk 369/1 (needs a slight rise in ratings and more consistency)
Joe Lively is a particularly interesting one. Do we reckon he will be sent to Aintree? This is a horse who won a 3m4f G3 race at Chepstow off 143 beating Halcon Generladais by 14 lengths. He was then raised to 155 for the Welsh National and finished a creditable 10l 6th to Notre Pere ‘staying on same pace’ at the end. He has shown nothing this year which isn’t a good sign but his rating has been dipping slowly. Last race was a poor peformance behind The Package off 158. However his rating is now 149 and I feel that, if he shows a 3rd place finish without his rating going up, then he could be in business
#148
January 10th, 2010 13:12
Hopefully the Thyestes will be on in a couple of weeks. Wins for Parsons PIstol and Balytrim should put them in the national picture. Two worth keeping an eye on in that race in regards future nationals are Oscar Looby and One Cool Cookie if they take up their entries.
I think Joe Lively is heading to Aintree, but… the strong gale influence!! The falls to Miko de Beauchene would be a worry, two of them last year were in top company and he does seem to have sorted that out with Venetia Williams and we’ll have to see how he gets on at Haydock
#149
January 10th, 2010 13:12
Speedy – yes , ive been conducting a similar exercise… and the two that stick out to me are on your list – joe lively and siegemaster, i think siegemaster would be a good horse to go to aintree but i cant see any press cuttings indicating he might . i think hes in the same stable as vic venturi and black apalachi so they might decide that’s their 2 . however hes only 10/1 for the thyestes and if he runs well there might get some shorter quotes for the nat . shame we dont know future running plans
#150
January 10th, 2010 13:23
ThaiMark
“On a different subject, is it right that Dream Alliance should be dropped as a leading fancy because of OR increase to 151?”
Not impossible TaiMark but very difficult. He may have destroyed his chance when winning the Welsh National (I think he did). He would carry 11.00 on OR 151 – this woold require a new 15 year trend for a combined OR/Weight – last year Mon Mone was the highest OR for 15 years on OR148 on 11.00. So you can see its unlikely but just in the realm of possible.
#151
January 10th, 2010 13:46
joe lively and siegemaster?
What does the money say?
Joe Lively:180/1 No – very unlikely (graph is overwelmingly upwards)- but some very recent support in last week (downwards)so needs watching. Would need to drop to less than 100/1 to take seriously.
Siegemaster:230/1 No (graph is oevrwelmingly in an upwards direction including the last week). Will not win.
#152
January 10th, 2010 13:47
Most important thing is to decide what you are using the stats for!
Is it that the winner MUST meet all stats or most stats or all key stats? If there are key stats – which are key?
Or should these stats to be used to narrow the field to a usable short-list for further study?
Is there some flexibility around the stats?
Each year someone will come out and say “well that winner met all the stats” – like there is a definitive list
Well there isn’t!
And why should there be?
#153
January 10th, 2010 14:37
Exactly Pablo. Could you please edit MASTER KEY STATS list to what you see as key? Just to get your slant on it?
#154
January 10th, 2010 14:40
Systemsman, odds market is very ineteresting, but given Mom Mome was 100/1 and continually spiralling outwards before the off, I for one will not be laying any stock in it.
If I did I wouldn’t have got either MM or Silver Birch at monster odds. It’s a handy reflective tool – but for me not nearly as important as, say, the 30/30 stat etc.
#155
January 10th, 2010 14:48
Good question Pablo, what are the key stats. On a horse meeting all stats that fine but I think you should be flexible. If a horse doesn’t meet say one stat, then I think it should stand on the rest.
What do others think?
On stats earlier I was looking for candidates that are nine or ten years old, official rating between hundred and forty one to hundred forty five, weight ten stone four to ten stone eight, and won a class one race over twenty five and half furlong. This is assuming of course that Mon Mome defends his title carrying eleven stone ten and is top weight with an official rating of hundred and sixty one.
Looked at all runs on oddchecker from Tricky Trickster to Church Island (except Russian Trigger whose deceased (R.I.P.) and Denman whom we know would not be going to Aintree.)
The result surprised me too, but the are only three candidates meeting all these stats:
Vic Venturi
State Of Play
Iris De Balme
Remember these are what I deemed to be ideal stats, the might be less than ideal, but passible who might win.
#156
January 10th, 2010 15:07
Showlad
I don’t think any of them are key – I use a points system and will add up points awarded for each stat and will back the top 3 (and anything equal with the 3rd top rating)
None of the horses to have won has got 100% score on my system and every winner has a slightly different profile (no two winners alike!) – so I cannot say which stat is better than any another
This forum is really helpful to discuss things and refine systems etc but I am not expecting to agree with everybody about which stats to use or which are better
Sorry if that’s not helpful but I want to compare my ratings with the bookies/Betfair prices so like them I cannot rule out a horse for any one factor
#157
January 10th, 2010 15:14
thaimark- I was interested in getting past weather for ground conditions at aintree after cold winters, to see if we can predict what spring may be like, we could easily be as good as real weathermen
1978 was apparently the last one, can’t recall that tho, wasn’t 1979 hot?.. god my memory is shocking… one freeze in the early 60s? 1946/7 &8 i think BIG freeze and spring 1948 itself was very wet, although I can’t remember that cause I didn’t exist!
Just lookin for clues, want to make a ‘going list’ which I think would be a good thing regardless of if anyone out there has a memory of this. Looking on net can’t find either list of big freeze winters or the going for following GN results, anyone got a list? say for 1979, 46/7/8
#158
January 10th, 2010 15:20
KJ
From A-Z of GN by Marcus Armytage
1948 g/f
1963 s
1979 g
1981 g
Any other bad winters anyone remembers?
#159
January 10th, 2010 15:21
1947 hy
#160
January 10th, 2010 15:50
A few articles from Betfair that may be of interest:
http://betting.betfair.ie/horse-racing/grand-national-2010/2010-grand-national-at-aintree-the-beginners-guide-to-handic-161209.html
http://betting.betfair.ie/horse-racing/grand-national-2010/grand-national-trends-are-generally-okay-but-specifically-ru-211209.html
http://betting.betfair.ie/horse-racing/grand-national-2010/2010-aintree-grand-national-trends-080110.html
Quotes:
“At one time the handicapper would allocate extra weight to horses that had performed well over the big fences. This has stopped and the race is treated like any other. Therefore horses that have done well over the course should now have an advantage”.
“It’s not as easy to pull the wool over the handicapper’s eyes these days however, and he’s been given extra powers in recent times to deal with horses he feels are keeping their ability hidden.”
So it’s not the Aintree factor anymore – it really is up to Phil Smith – sounds a bit dodgy to me.
There are some notable errors in som of the figurs in these articles – “none of the last ten winners had fallen or unseated over fences in their career” = wrong.
Shows that it pays to do your own research if you can – or look at Showlad’s list, all of which has been challenged on these pages, so should be accurate.
#161
January 10th, 2010 15:50
Yes, that’s all okay but you want bad winters in the north west of england. It’s no good if you’re looking at what the weather like down south. I give you an example, down south I’ve been reading about water shortage because of dry summers. These past few years. Yet up say Manchester area and Liverpool we’ve had no shortage.
#162
January 10th, 2010 15:54
Although it’s been bad with snow over christmas and new year. The only light snow falling now. I suggest you note how Haydock is doing as this is Aintree’s closest neighbour.
#163
January 10th, 2010 16:12
Thanks pablo,
suprised 48 g/f as thats the only yr that I thought I’d found out was wet after cold, maybe it was dry spring wet summer/autumn. I wonder if digging deeper would reveal a pattern or not. I think the course was wetter before 60s anyway. A more recent relevance, books are still handy hey! and ofcourse Neil weather is site specific, so only northern memories need apply
Re miko,
2 falls- upper limit together with 3 URs not good, obviously has put in an occasional blunder, but a case has been argued that a change of trainer and jockey seems to have worked, so far. Someone suggested ages ago, he can’t win because he has the current winning trainer, don’t be silly, as someone responded thats a bonus!
Can he sort out his occassional jumping mistakes for aintree now with Venetia? all I can say is it’ll be interesting to watch his progress,find out his plans nearer the time.
He fails on s/r partly for the no of Fs URs PUs inclined to give benefit of doubt here.
He has won a C1 handicap 29f g/soft at haydock with 11st12!
still only 10, like MM last yr been around for what seems like longer, a good thing. Will get <11st to appreciate, sound familiar?
#164
January 10th, 2010 16:22
Neil interesting list above, VV, SOP and Iris personally I think 10st8 is a low cut off point I think even 10st12 could miss the winner. I don’t think MM was a freak result, with 11st although with weight fitness is key to win!
#165
January 10th, 2010 16:40
Lifetime, chase and hurdle, win/place strike rates of last 16 winners on 31st December.
Miinnehoma 87%
Royal Athlee 54%
Rough Quest 61%
Lord Gyllene 86%
Earth Summit 48%
Bobbyjo 42% (had a chase s/r of 53%)
Papillon 55%
Red Marauder 65%
Bindaree 67%
Monty’s Pass 66%
Amberleigh House 48%
Hedgehunter 67%
Numbersixvalverde 57%
Silver Birch 53%
Comply Or Die 56%
Mon Mome 52%
In 1977-1978 season the Welsh National was abandoned, it used to be run in February in those days, and the last day of Cheltenham Festival was abandoned, Gold Cup ran after the GN. Coincidentally that was the only year in the last 35 that the ‘top 5 Hennessy etc’ stat was broken.
#166
January 10th, 2010 16:58
KJ these three are based on OR, weight, age and stamina in class one races. Looking at those which fits best, not necessary the ones who could win. However Vic Venturi is out of Old Vic who progency includes Comply Or Die. I thought that we are trying to find something missed in the original list at New Year, so the only way I thought was to approach the subject from a new angle.
#167
January 10th, 2010 17:26
Indeed Neil, new angle good, was just wondering really what would come into it if you extended the weight/ OR up.
Can you tell me going for 1964, 1982 and 1978 pablo.
Coincidence or not thanks for the snippet Crisp, would be interested to know more details about the year the 30/30 stat was broken, Lucius info and how far back before it was again, if its a modern times pattern.
Confirmed a couple of cold ones inc the north, but only proper up north,. scotland, northumberland (wales and down south checked out too) but not mid north?! I know it can be different weatherwise but unlikely to get away with it if all else are frozen. Anyway I may be barking up a random tree, but I’m starting to think about the going and want all things covered, horses that go on anything starting to appeal or waiting til the week of the race, hmm.
#168
January 10th, 2010 17:49
“Showlad says:
January 10, 2010 at 2:40 PM
Systemsman, odds market is very ineteresting, but given Mom Mome was 100/1 and continually spiralling outwards before the off, I for one will not be laying any stock in it.”
On Mon Mome you are wrong he was 33/1 on weights day and fell into the correct price range on the Racing Post list on weights day (Feb). “The Follow the Money” comcept is an alternative to trends, in 2008 it did find he winner as did trends/stats. It is only a tool and should not be used on its own – i use it to confirm my short list as I am looking for confidence in the market. The really interesting part I think is too see who gains and loses support as we go along. It is a work in progress and may take a year or two more to get right.
It has already indecated (as has this web site)that both Hello Bud and Gone To Lunch are not quite the good things I once thought so it has been useful for me.
#169
January 10th, 2010 17:54
Pablo
“I don’t think any of them are key – I use a points system and will add up points awarded for each stat and will back the top 3 (and anything equal with the 3rd top rating)”
Yes Pablo I think that is the way forward. I would also add up the total score and back the top 6 at 100% in my case with the next two at 50% or something like that.
#170
January 10th, 2010 18:04
systems, i know why you are not so interested in hello bud now,too much TS in breeding if i recall,but apart from he might head elsewhere and not the national does gone to lunch not interest you.or anyone else for that matter as i really fancie him.
#171
January 10th, 2010 18:11
Mandie check the original list pre new year, he was one of my choices behind Niche Market and Dream Alliance. I can’t say for other people but I put a lot of thought into my list. Unless I get fresh data I sticking to my list.
#172
January 10th, 2010 18:26
thankyou neil,that gives me confidence as i like to listen to peoples thoughts and choices,but also like to think i go with my own thoughts and judgements.i go by stats.to a certain extent,and some more than others as suggested earlier,but at the end of the day they need applying to your own list and feelings.i learned the hard way last year when getting carried along with the flow on rambo.would never have got the winner myself though having said that,but did back state of play e/w,thats as close as it got.thanks again,just hope GTL goes to aintree,he will be my choice.
#173
January 10th, 2010 18:31
The problem with Gone To Lunch is that we don’t know where he is heading. If we’re to take the view of the betting market it would look unlikely that he heads to Aintree. There is also the McCoy factor, who seems to get a lot more out of him than others. Jim Scott has also seemed very negative towards the national and said not long after the hennessy that his jumping would need to improve. I’m sure if we knew he was heading to Aintree there would be a lot more interest in him
#174
January 10th, 2010 19:04
good points tc, but do you think the mccoy factor is a coincidence. i agree there does seem to be good results in the form with ap on board,but durrack has took the last two rides and he pulled up in 1 of them.also regards his jumping i think he has only one career fall.
#175
January 10th, 2010 19:06
Neil S
“On stats earlier I was looking for candidates that are nine or ten years old, official rating between hundred and forty one to hundred forty five, weight ten stone four to ten stone eight, and won a class one race over twenty five and half furlong. This is assuming of course that Mon Mome defends his title carrying eleven stone ten and is top weight with an official rating of hundred and sixty one.
neil this is far too narrow a definition of the winning trends and is based on looking for the middle point of key trends – amistake in my opinion. As an exapmle both 8 year olds and 11year olds do win the GN as do runners with OR over 145 (5 times in the last 15 years in fact).
I also looked at these figures and came up with a far broader range (and some will still say too broad, but it does cover all the last 15 years)that covers the OR/Weight combination.
OR 141 to 148
Weight 10.04 to 10.11
Last 15 years.
Those GN winners over OR 148 in the last 15 years all carried 10.11 or less.
Those GN winneres on OR136 to OR140 all carried 10.04 or more.
I think you will now find more tha 3 runners who now fit the GN winners profile.
#176
January 10th, 2010 19:15
Systemsman. My ref to Mon Mome was not wrong I was ref to his price at the off, as we all know the famous 100/1 winner (I think on betfair you could get him even higher).
Your research, as all, is valued, but I for one will be sticking to performance stats rather than the bookies prices – if we’d heeded that then no-one would have bet him (well not many did lol) and I for one would have laid him off. So if he was 33/1 at weights and then out to 100/1 at the off, it shows how wrong the bookies got it, going completely in the wrong direction.
#177
January 10th, 2010 19:45
Mandie – i haven’t watched a great deal of GTL but i do remember Jim Scott saying that the jumping needed to improve and it sounded as if another tilt at the Scottish national would be more likely off the same mark. The reason seamus Durack has been on board is because McCoy wasnt available for the hennessy and also looks as if he’s getting more rides for Paul Nicholls in Ruby’s absence. I’m sure if he wanted to ride GTL in the Welsh national he would have.
He was closing fast in the Scottich national, but the form of that race doesnt look partcularly strong now. He ran pretty well in the hennessy but had to be niggled along a fair bit and left himself too far behind – under AP i think he would have finished closer. He can’t do that in this years national especially if Black Apalachi runs. If GTL does to the national he will need to be ridden nearer the pace. He certainly has the stamina on his side though and is one of a few that i think can challenge late.
I think there is also a case that the hennessy may have ‘bottomed’ a number of horses and i think we need to see more from them in their next outings
#178
January 10th, 2010 19:48
System, I got my range by cross referencing weight with official ratings. I agree I could have taken a bigger sample but kept it small to analyse a specific area . When doing proper research I would also be looking at not just ideal stats, but passable stats and those which miss just one stat (providing the rest are ideal) which is a new way for me. As for age the better than a one in two chance on previous runs that the winner would be nine or ten. When I brought my booklet in early nineties the best age on stats was eight or nine year olds. However still look at full range when doing proper study.
#179
January 10th, 2010 19:51
Showland : You were not wrong but to those that know little about the GN may have thought Mon Mome was always a big price close to 100/1 or even bigger last year.
Most years (but not all) the GN winner will be no more that 40/1 max on weights day as listed in the Racing Post bookies list.
No system can always be 100% correct wether we us trends/stats, price etc and I have stated before that I will settle for 50% or better so that every 2nd year or so the bookies pay for a good family holiday in the sun. This year I am going to make it hurt and hurt bad because those blood suckers took our money last year. I not only want that holiday in the sun – all inclussie ofcousre, but a brand new 37inch flat screen TV and the very latest model no less. Bring it on!
Like you I will be using performance and trends first, and price as confirmation. I may use price for my last bet in the 48hours leading up to the race if something looks special and the money is rolling in – if it fits most key trends (but I would probably have it already in most cases).
#180
January 10th, 2010 19:57
thanks very much for that tc, food for thought for sure.
#181
January 10th, 2010 19:58
systems – looking for a decent pay out then!?!
#182
January 10th, 2010 20:59
TC:
“systems – looking for a decent pay out then!?!”
Yep for me and all the gang on here, this year we are going to make it big!
I can already visulise that huge 37″ TV in my living room. Will start to look at some holiday brochures very soon!!
#183
January 10th, 2010 21:02
Full list of the ones you requested KJ
1947 hy
1948 g/f
1963 s
1964 s
1978 f
1979 g
1981 g
1982 g
#184
January 10th, 2010 22:21
Totally with you Systemsman. (btw I’m Showlad not Showland lol).
I could really do with a windfall this year after a crap 2009. I will be led by the stats, but got CI at amazing odds and since his Irish GN super and EFFORTLESS run (though I felt he could do with a few extra furlongs)he was my big one to watch this year. Can’t quite get him out of my head…
#185
January 10th, 2010 22:50
Showlad re CI “Can’t quite get him out of my head…”
Nor can i, seems to good to be true, especiely at the mega mega (thats two mega’s) price I got (I cant reveal this yet)but he will still be one in a portfolio of of possible winners I will bet on but he will be my biggest win if he does the job.
Just wait for his weight to come out and the press will write him up big and the price with nosedive.
Can such a good possibility still be such a good price? A one of chance for us all if he pulls it off. But dont lets do another Rambo we need not one but a few good possabilities this year.
#186
January 10th, 2010 23:17
Did anyone agree with the post i put up yesterday, i know its very early to be talking about how the race could unfold but i believe if Black Apalachi stays up, it would be a huge benefit to CI
I don’t think CI is another Rambo at all. He’s consistently proven himself in the big races. The reason he is going to remain a big price is because hardly anyone will know his target plus the fact he wouldn’t be the most well known horse. If he’d have just got over the line in the kerry national or if the bet 365 was another furlong further he would be half the price
#187
January 11th, 2010 03:58
Anybody know Big Buck’s from the TRF Racing forum site. He would be a friend of Kendal Cavalier (remember)yes/no.
Amazingly after someone on this site asked for a complete list of all our key stats (3 years work), they all appear within 18 hours on another racing site, stat for fecking stat, word for word, even the words (most important i think). A lot of hard work and effort by a lot of people just robbed or given away. Such is the nature of the web and some people. The rest wll be in code. Bast—-.
#188
January 11th, 2010 08:20
the stats went straight to the racing forum almost as soon as they were put back up – probably should have left them!! think we can leave the stats page. The best one is that gerald guy who obviously reads this site and found out Church Island was heading to the national and put it up straight away on there – check all his AP bets out as well!!
#189
January 11th, 2010 10:23
“crisp 73 says:
January 9, 2010 at 6:10 PM
KJ, isn’t it the year of the dragon? Dream Alliance’s syndicate from Wales!
Totally agree with you that Niche Market needs a slow race, I’d mentioned it before. Irish National was slow, hs win at Ascot was slow. Interestingly Venetia Williams commented on the Hennessy, from the Mon Mome angle obviously, and said that MM managed to stay with them for most of the first circuit because the pace was slow, look at the video if you can MM is right up there, never seen him do that before! Niche could win a National but I think it would have to be a slow run race.”
“As usual, it was run at a sound gallop and it looked hard work to make ground from off the pace on the holding surface.” Hennessy 2008 – g/s 6:51
Hennessy 2009 g/s 6:40 – Denman best ever Topspeed and joint best RPR
Admittedly comparing race times is not an exact science but the above does suggest that the race was, if anything, not a slow race.
They may have gone a touch slower on the first circuit than they might in the GN but Niche Market was in a good rhythm, jumping well and keeping on well at the end.
#190
January 11th, 2010 11:28
Team – don’t get disheartened at plagiarists of our info on this site.
Stats, tips, analysis – all of course has to be FREELY and LIBERALLY posted up on here – it’s exactly what the site is for.
If someone spots such plagiarism, why not post up some response to where it appears.
The vast majority – take note 99.9999% of the public – are not privy or in the know re our great work which is why we hope to be quids in come the big day against the sea of Joe public having a flutter.
Tossers who post up the info are in a sense still unveiling to another minority specialist group, so don’t let them get to you – just chill.
GO OUR TEAM!!
#191
January 11th, 2010 11:48
Did these guys put up a link back to here from the forum?
If not they really should have.
I myself did a blog post a few weeks back and took some of the stats from you guys on here and mixed them in with my own stats. I made sure it was clear that some of the stats were sourced from here and put a solid link back to this forum.
#192
January 11th, 2010 13:39
Ref the list being transferred, OK it will narrow down the field for them but getting the winner is a different matter. It’s the amazing knowledge of participants and depth of analysis that makes this thread special. Most of us have our own criteria anyway and it’s probably best left that way or we’ll all be going for Rambo again. RIP the list.
TC – I thought your early forecast for the race with CI & BA was detailed to the point that I could see it happening. I wish it were that easy. CI has been at the top of my list from the start but the lack of Anti Posts by major bookies makes me cautious. It’s a very close handicap call between Niche Market & CI but the latter seems to have dosage figures more suited to the National.
On that matter, I sent a note to Venetia Williams yard asking for dosage figures on Mico De Beauchene as unable to get any from pedigreequery.com. No reply to date. Is anybody able to supply these for me?
#193
January 11th, 2010 13:54
Hennessy 2009 g/s 6:40 – Denman best ever Topspeed and joint best RPR
It seemed to me that the hennessy was very much split into two halves, and i’m sure there would be times to prove that. The pace of the race was very slow in the early stages and as soon as Denman took over the pace quickened a fair bit. Amost turned into 2m 5f race. Much like the Irish national was slow to begin with, i’m not sure the hennessy was a ‘stayers’ race as the pace wasn’t consistent. The front 2 were comfortably better than the rest but i would definitely not label Barbers shop a stayer. I have my doubts as to whether Niche Market can keep going at a consistent pace throughout the national as his two performances have come off a slow early pace which won’t happen at Aintree
#194
January 11th, 2010 13:55
Thaimark
Dosage figures will not exist for MDB because he has 0 points – i.e. no Chef-De-Race in his 4 generation pedigree – Royal Athlete the same. The Inf on his DI & CD means infinity i.e. 0/0
He has won a Welsh National and been campaigned over an average of 27.5f in his past dozen or so races so I don’t think his stamina will be in question
More of a concern is his jumping and form – if VW can keep him happy and interested then he’s a live contender for sure
#195
January 11th, 2010 13:55
…hopefully Ben will be able to confirm the dosage bit of the above
#196
January 11th, 2010 14:01
Pablo
Yeah, Miko De Beu is indeed Dosage weak. 0-0-0-0-0 (0) 0.00 / 0.00. As you correctly point out there are zero Chef’s in his 4 Gen pedigree.
Don’t let it put you off though as Mon Mome was also Dosage Weak with 4 points (? off top of my head). Generally it is horse with 8 points or more (Dosage strong)that win the National, recent winners with less than 8 points have had the biggest winning SP of recent times.
#197
January 11th, 2010 14:20
Thank Ben, Mark it was probably because you misspelt the name. TC this Gerald fellow admits to using this site. Page 9 Date 20 nov 2009 timed 21:39. I quote him as he writes ” Did a search for Denman on google, and restricted it to the past 24 hours came across.” He then puts a link in to this site on the Denman page. Where I mentioned about how I suspected Denman would not be running. He goes on from there to say ” Elsewhere on this site I’m referred to as a lunatic a rather sobering experience. “
#198
January 11th, 2010 14:26
TC I also found this site on google. Was not on a blog at time, decided to join this one. My point is anyone can take the info put up on any web site if they know what to put in google for it.
#199
January 11th, 2010 15:31
I’ve spoken with Gerald on a couple of occasions as I’m also a member of the Racing Forum Blog. Now you mention it I remember the Lunatic comment!! Made me chuckle!
Thaimark
I would be surprised if any of the top yards use Dosage as a tool so the Williams yard may not actually know what you are asking them. If you have any Dosage based queries feel free to drop me a line either on my own Blog or indeed on here.
#200
January 11th, 2010 15:40
Ben, question on the dosage points
Obviously some horses have more points in their index than others, just wondering if there is any indication that the ones with more points are likely to have more ‘gears’ and therefore better of tactically?
Denman and Kauto for example, Denman a big brute of a horse who just keeps galloping and Kauto who we have seen has many gears
#201
January 11th, 2010 15:54
Ben your commits on top yards in this country not using dosage, as Nick from weekender says American use it all the time.
#202
January 11th, 2010 17:30
god the darts killed me, got such a headache from willing chizzy on, there are limits to my powers
and I knew he was wolfies underdog! If my horse(s) runs aswell in the GN well you gotta be pleased and if it goes along similar lines, the plodders can win, I had Amberleigh House after all, who is the best plodder this year tho? I think its hard to work out, as staying on is crucial
#203
January 11th, 2010 17:47
Since Niche Market is being accused of being a slowboat then surely Church Island is guilty by association – he made much of the running in the Irish National
From RP comments – Church Island “Prominent, led 9th, headed before 6 out, ridden to lead entering straight, headed 2 out, kept on, no extra run-in”
Niche Market “Mid-division early, chased leaders before halfway where 6th, headway to 3rd 6 out, ridden into 2nd entering straight, led 2 out, kept on well under pressure”
#204
January 11th, 2010 17:57
I apologised to Gerald for that “lunatic” comment – it was inappropriate – I really meant eccentric because most of us come up with a shortlist yet he bets on 30+ horses – different approach but he got the winner last year and I didn’t
#205
January 11th, 2010 18:26
Pablo – i wasnt accusing NM of being a slowboat, quite the opposite and he benefitted from a slow early pace much like the Irish national. I’m just not sure if he can keep up a steady gallop throughout a longer trip. Church Island has had to try and force the pace in his recent runs and i feel he will benefit from the stronger pace set at Aintree as in his recent runs he’s still had a lot left in the tank, i don’t think the formbook tells the whole story.
How’s Geralds AP bets going, did notice Garde Champetre as his main one
#206
January 11th, 2010 18:37
Hi there, earlier we were discusing this snow that’s about, and what sort of spring would follow.
I said you want to focus on the weather in the Northwest of England because this is the area that Aintree is.
Well good news, everybody just watched the local weather report and the thaw has started in this part of the country.
Will keep you informed.
#207
January 11th, 2010 18:52
Pablo, I’m not trying to throw mud to Niche Market and mislead people here. TC, in saying the Hennessy turned into a 2m5f race, was kind of what I was alluding to. That first part of the Hennessy was slow and so says one of Britains best trainers, not me. The final mile, half mile, given the ground, was probably super fast and yes Niche Market was there all right.I’ve looked through my comments here on nowhere can I read that I wrote Niche Market is a ‘slow coach’. Hey I do take note of what you say. I think you, and many people here, know far more about racing than me. Niche Market has speed to burn, but looking at his Irish National win the time was slow on good ground and I think that’s why he won. If he gets a slow pace for whatever reason at Aintree then good luck to him.
The stats seem to suggest fairly consistent horses win GN’s and Niche Market lifetime win place strike rates and chase win place strike rates are way behind those of the last 16 winners. In fact in the last 15 runnings no horse who has finished in the first 3 has had win place strike rates as low as him.(If we want to include 4th place in big fields then surely 3rd of four runners can’t count for much?) Notes of caution for our top choice or is Niche Market this year’s sacred cow?
#208
January 11th, 2010 19:02
spring may comeback! its not the end of the world yet, great news, we atleast get to see this race run, should be a cracker!
Don’t think anyone writing off NM, just think a slow first circuit would suit. We just broadening disscussion to other ‘slow’ seeming horses, I myself was going to mention CI because there is a confusion and uncertainty there inparticular. HB seems to run ‘true’ races of his choice if you like, but there is an argument that CI is not, his dosage suggests speed?! i think someone said, its confusing and we hopefully get to find out if he is this years Butlers Cabin.
#209
January 11th, 2010 19:06
Crisp, Pablo, fellows – its not the year of the dragon I’m afraid, its the eye of the tiger! (wolf)
#210
January 11th, 2010 19:07
according to couch on RPtv,he is stating that ruby will be on BIG FELLA THANKS,who is high on my list.
#211
January 11th, 2010 19:16
I assume you’re talking about chinese new year. It the year of the tiger on feb 14 until then its the year of the ox.
#212
January 11th, 2010 19:18
mandie that is great news for BFT, not so good for My will, I thought Ruby may do this, as he was not happy with MWs jumping last yr.
Neil we’re all chinese now
#213
January 11th, 2010 19:22
Not sure the form of last years national is going to be that strong, but BFT chould improve a bit for the experience. IF Ruby is on board, then what on earth is Mr Nicholls doing with Tricky Trickster!! He’s cost £330,000 and sat in a stable!
#214
January 11th, 2010 19:31
kj, i just felt that another year older,now 8 and the fact that he will be fresher than last year as he had run 4 times by now comparesd to just the once this term and might even be a couple of pounds lighter he has a cracking e/w chance at least.now if ruby was on board that would be very interesting.
#215
January 11th, 2010 19:45
Personally rate NM higher than CI fwiw
Either might make my final 3 on points so I might be cheering on one or both come the big day yet
Difficult to gauge a hierarchy of all runners without confirmation on weights
#216
January 11th, 2010 20:40
Church Island has run in 14 HCP chases to date winning only one, which gives him a strike rate of only 7.1% in HCP’s….I know Bindaree never won a HCP before winning the GN but apart from that the lowest HCP % win (in last 10yrs) was CoD in 2008 with 12.5% – the highest (again in last 10yrs) was Numbersixvalverdie with a 50% strikerate in HCP’s before the national. Is this not a worrying stat in CI’s case???? Surely he won’t run in another HCP between now and the GN?
#217
January 11th, 2010 21:00
It’s 1 in 15 if you count Novice Handicaps
Niche Market on the other hand is 2 wins and a 3rd (2 key races) from 6 handicap starts
The other three starts – 2 poor runs at Wincanton (one on impossible terms) and pulled up behind Arbor Supreme conceding 14lb in weight and on ground faster than ideal
The ground for the Irish National was not fast according to trainer in RP comments “Niche Market is a brilliant and economical jumper who keeps galloping. I’d have been happier if the ground was softer but it all worked out wonderfully. It’s my first time here and it is an amazing track and a proper big galloping circuit. People in Ireland want to help you, not hinder you and they did a very good job watering last night. In hindsight missing the cut for the John Smith’s Grand National probably helped us today as this was a more suitable track for him. Harry gave the horse a super ride. Show jumping has made him an excellent horseman – Bob Buckler”
Ideally for me a horse needs to show decent form at 6 or 7 (or during first 2 seasons) and show up well in handicaps – strike rate will usually be high but not key to have a high strike rate
#218
January 11th, 2010 21:04
*meant a high overall strike rate in chases
Plus how relevant is form over hurdles for horses jumping 40 dirty great fences?
#219
January 11th, 2010 22:18
Pre internet access I used to get a list of the runners as soon as the weights came out and backed everything that looked as though it was a] definately going to run b]carry less than 11st and c] aged 9. I then backed everything that Eddie the Shoe tipped in The Observer the weekend before the race. Until this year his record was outstanding. I still intend to look very carefully at all of the 9 year olds this year! [I did back Amberleigh House, however, when he won. 12 year olds seem ok but I'm very anti 11 year olds for some reason. Younger horses seem to place more and more these days, though].
#220
January 12th, 2010 00:40
TC
re your Dosage points totals
This is one of the many aspects of Dosage I am looking at.
At the moment I would say horse with huge numbers of points in their profile make into better hurdlers (ISTABRAQ & INGLIS DREVER are good examples) not many Chasers have vast numbers in their totals.
There was a discussion on my blog (Neil was part of it) about horses with points in all categories and are they possibly superior. KAUTO STAR, ARKLE, BEST MATE & HEDGEHUNTER fit into this category.
Click on this blog post and look at the comments to see the discussion about points across the board – http://www.narrowing-the-field.com/2010/01/big-ntf-festive-review-part-iii.html.
cheers
#221
January 12th, 2010 01:27
I was just about to say a few nice things about Flintoff, after looking at his profile but Paul Beck, the owner, has decided to-day to bring his horses back to VW, so I won’t.
#222
January 12th, 2010 01:37
Ben, about this site pedigreequery.com. Racing Post doesn’t recognise the name Mico de Beauchene – I have to access the horse info through Dream Alliance (their 2007 Welsh National run). I figured the same might be the same on PQ.com but it does say you can add a horse using dam/sire names. So here’s my admission – I entered Mico’s details but the site didn’t recognise D/S names and gav Mico the 0-0-0-0-0 numbers it has now. So, the figures are incorrect. I have submitted queries on Mico’s dam/sire and hope to get something sorted. I was only trying to help!!!!!!! Any help/comments out there to make me feel better?
#223
January 12th, 2010 06:43
Thaimark i think you misspelt the name try with a k not a c and pedigreequery should recognise the name.
#224
January 12th, 2010 06:54
Thaimark and TC the name of the horse is Miko De Beauchene and not Mico De Beauchene, it’s like when systemman called showlad, showland. He knew what he meant but a computer will take exactly what’s typed in. I have the same trouble sometimes so My advice is check your spelling.
#225
January 12th, 2010 07:32
Neil
Spot on. Its Miko not Mico and the database won’t understand that you have made a typo.
Thaimark
I would happily enter a horse on Pedigreequery for you (I have done it on numerous occasions) Either drop me a mail or leave a comment on my blog as I may miss it on here.
As Neil points out, its a good idea to make sure you are spelling the horses name correct, I used to make this mistake all the time.
Cheers
#226
January 12th, 2010 09:45
With regards BFT and Ruby was that the video by “The Couch” you got that from? I would be careful about anything he says because he always tips up horses owned by “his mates” Andy Stewart or Harry Findlay. I would be absolutely amazed if Ruby has already committed to BFT given that Paul Nicholls will have TT, My Will and others entered and Willie Mullins will also have a few entered. Ruby will leave his choice as late as he can based on the horse’s weight, form and ground. There’s no way he has already chosen BFT.
#227
January 12th, 2010 10:00
Re: dosage
I think its important to remember what the system was originally designed for – to track the evolving nature of the breed on the flat and the effects of pedigree on performance (in US particular) NOT to pinpoint future winners over jumps in UK & Ireland (although that’s not to say that it doesn’t work, Ben!).
Therefore horses that do not have many points are not necessarily at a disadvantage – they merely do not have any/many ancestors to have performed with distinction on the flat.
One of the greatest sires of NH horses Roselier did not pass on any points to his offspring – among others:
Carvill´s Hill
Suny Bay
The Listener
Monet´s Garden
One Knight
The Grey Monk
Kingsmark
Royal Athlete
Royal Emperor
Senor El Betrutti
At its best dosage can be a very useful indicator – and Ben’s analysis shows that there are ‘acceptable ranges’ around dosage for certain races and types of race – but it is NOT 100% reliable – much like any other ‘stat’.
#228
January 12th, 2010 10:10
* should say any/many recent ancestors
#229
January 12th, 2010 10:44
Ben
Cheers for the response, i think its certainly something to look into. the reason for the hurdlers having so many points is because they are generally bred for the flat. good idea to bring a book out for the flat – thats where the figures are at their best/more conclusive
Havent looked into the number of points a great deal myself but my current theory is the horses with more points or a more scattered index may have more gears and be better tactically. The ones with lower figures or a more grouped together index are likely to have as few gears and don’t have as many changes of pace.
Looking ahead to Cheltenham i don’t expect the champion hurdle to be a tactical race and would think they are going to go at a quick pace throughout so we may be looking at a horse with the lower/grouped figures (Go Native). The Gold cup won’t be a tactical battle either and Denman will go off in front, blunting Kauto tactical speed and therefore I think Denman will win
#230
January 12th, 2010 10:51
Pablo
Agreed. Dosage is not 100% reliable, like every other statistical analysis tool out there. There are always exceptions to every rule/trend/stat and it is a fact that a lot of people/punters overlook in their quest for a ‘quick fix’.
To be profitable at racing you need to work hard at it, like life itself.
#231
January 12th, 2010 12:07
My findings on dosage is that it works best in top class races.
#232
January 12th, 2010 15:02
Neil/Ben – thanks for correcting me on the “K” for Monsieur Beauchene. Don’t know how I could have got it wrong. Yes, dosage figures really are 0-0-0-0-0 so my new friend Miko will remain on the short list – for now.
Betfair quote Miko at 90/1 & Church Island at 70/1 – I’m getting tempted as they are throw away odds.
#233
January 12th, 2010 18:36
Thanks for the grounding Stayer!
ofcourse Ruby won’t have made up his mind which of the many he is going to ride yet. Just thought someone may’ve gleaned an inside edge on which way he was leaning. The ground will probably help him decide and like I said I will get on whatever his decision is, rather him than me, what a choice to make,..
Will he remain loyal to ‘My Will the nearly horse’? could My Will improve for last years GN experience, could BFT?. I’m not sure, ofcourse he could go for TT or Arbor Supreme! theres probably another ‘wonder horse’ I haven’t mentioned.
#234
January 12th, 2010 19:13
Looks like someone having a dabble on parsons legacy on betfair – hes been about 240s for as long as i care to remember = down to 85s now – anybody owning up ?
hes still on my list of 8 – still got a bit to prove this season though but if he bounces back to form in the spring he cant be totally ruled out
#235
January 12th, 2010 19:56
Silver Birch, yes, that happened after Systems put Parsons on the can’t win GN list – steady Systems, only joking.
He dropped yesterday in 12 hours from 230 – 75. Whats a foot ?. I have my 3 euro on him for some time @ 330 but as you say he needs 2 good runs ( at least 1 win in my book ) and good ground in april to be at his best.
#236
January 12th, 2010 20:01
Hi Team. Keeping us sharp with awareness topics (we will not be making RAMBO II this year lol!!).
Anyone care to throw some thoughts in the ring re KJC’s 2nd to COD in 2008?
Only 1 single win at 24f as a 5 year old. NO WINS at 24f or more AT ALL after that. Best ground soft – heavy.
But only 4 lengths separated him and a shock win on GOOD ground at the 2008 GN.
This would have thrown all out of the water. Any thoughts??
#237
January 12th, 2010 20:09
Only £619 in total has been bet on Parson’s Legacy out of >£123k and there is only £2 lined up to back him – this is hardly a full scale gamble guys!
#238
January 12th, 2010 20:18
Showlad – KJC would have indeed blown several stats out of the window
Firstly trained by a very shrewd man and ridden by one of the top 3 National jockeys for me (Walsh, Carberry & Geraghty)
He was well-in on his Pierse handicap 2nd to Mister Top Not Notch but nothing much else pointed to him winning the National – except his price
As for the ground – it is mostly soft to heavy in Ireland and some Irish horses improve for the better ground in the UK at Cheltenham and Aintree
He was held up because they were not certain he would get the trip – I guess in the end COD was the better (and more proven) stayer but KJC came there cruising before the elbow
#239
January 12th, 2010 20:23
The now a place only market formed on betfair. One of those people on the other forum got betfair to form it.
#240
January 12th, 2010 20:24
he he minnehoma .. ive stuck a few shekels on him at the crazy prices too- if he wins itll be a major contribution to the family holiday . but by no means my Number1 pick of my golden 8 ..still hovering around dream alliance, niche market and miko as my leading 3 with my will, hello bud, church island following close behind ,parsons and gone to lunch bringing up the rear . long way to go yet though as they say …..
#241
January 12th, 2010 21:08
Doing some more research for us all that requ)ires looking up 100′s of results (or rechecking) but cant report for another 48hours (spent all afternoon in the library . Its going to be worth it.
From my research so far I am warming as are others to Miko De Beauchene being in my short list of six against the field. He was also pointed to in my “Follow the Money” profile post. I am getting the same few runners cropping up time and again in my research so I think we are close to finding the winner!
Any more views out there on Mike (I am not saying he is going to win but should he not be in any top six against the field)?
Just as an aside went out today to look at new TV sets for the small change from my (and our) winnings this year. Cant decide between a 37inch HD plasma Panasonic or a 37inch HD LED Sony – what do you think???!!
#242
January 12th, 2010 21:54
I heard plasmas don’t last?! but I’m gonna need a new oven.. the door just bloody blew off!
#243
January 12th, 2010 21:55
Nice one Pablo, only £619 on Parsons. I didn’t know that information was available but I see it now.
Mon Mome and COD have about £4000 on and Tricky T. £8800.
#244
January 12th, 2010 22:38
330 on a horse that was 20/1 last year is a very good price
#245
January 12th, 2010 22:45
Quick update on “Follow The Money – an alternative approach”
Parsons Legacy is now off the “Cant Win GN 2010 List” and has moved onto the “Unlikely To Win List”.
As has already been reported there has been some recent support (but not a lot of money) his graph is now downwads (but its only a short period downwards so far) but this may not be maintained – time will tell so he moves into the unlikley list unless there is a lot more support over time or the recent support vanishes.
#246
January 13th, 2010 00:03
I like Miko too
Miko hasn’t won for 9 chase starts – so next will be 10th – perhaps the Haydock Gold Cup (Rambo’s race – the GN Trial as it was called) – according to Crisp’s stats he’d need to win that (win in last 10 chases) and then break the spell of GN Trial winners not winning the GN
#247
January 13th, 2010 00:09
Pablo, Last year -
Betting plunges forces Parsons Legacy into 14-1
31 MAR 2009 A GRAND NATIONAL betting plunge gathered momentum on Tuesday on the Philip Hobbs-trained Parsons Legacy, who has not been seen on a racecourse since mid-December.
All leading bookmakers cut the odds of the 11-year-old, who can run particularly well when fresh and is suited by good ground. It is understood that a tipping service inspired the move.
Bet365 and Paddy Power offer as short as 14-1 about Parsons Legacy, while Stan James and Victor Chandler, who both went 40-1 on Tuesday morning, are now 16-1 and 20-1 respectively. Coral, who cut him to 20-1 (from 33), reported that liabilities had hit the six-figure mark.
Hobbs said that the plunge was nothing to do with him or the stable. “My last bet was five years ago at Royal Ascot,” he said.
“I suppose people are backing him because it looks as though the ground will be right. He has some good form over the years, including a close-up third to Hot Weld in the 2007 Scottish Grand National, and a second to Cloudy Lane in that season’s Kim Muir at Cheltenham.”
#248
January 13th, 2010 08:24
Systems , as per minnehoma – i had the same dilemna last year – seems plasmas are better looking but are more prone to breaking down a lot and unreliable . LEDS are more solid and reliable but maybe not as flashy … its a bit like deciding what girlfriend to go for
based on past experiences i would suggest you go for the LED .. ! good luck
#249
January 13th, 2010 09:20
Miinnehoma – yes I remember – think he missed his chance the year before but would he have beaten COD?
Last year there seemed to be quite a few ‘gambles’ going on – L’Ami for a while, Butler’s once AP up, My Will once Ruby up, Irish Invader went off at 16/1 as did Darkness
Rambo was backed in over a much longer period and BFT was well backed after being WisePriced
I guess people are desperate for last minute ‘value’ (which usually exists) and prey to a strong argument from a tipping line & don’t want to be left out
Plus the RP loves to stir it all up and report all these ‘gambles’ – would like to know how much money actually goes on and how much the firms are just stirring the market up for effect to generate volume and profit – seems the RP and the bookies are inextricably linked these days – not sure whether it’s RP or PR (for bookies)
The series of tipsters tipping up different horses for the same races at Cheltenham while there’s no decent racing going on being a prime example
#250
January 13th, 2010 09:27
I couldn’t fancy Parsons Legacy on his form so far this season. Given he’s a top-of-the-ground horse his two runs this term have been very poor. He’s 12 now so age could be catching up with him.
#251
January 13th, 2010 09:29
Systemsman
regarding new tv it depends what tou want to watch on the tv as to which tv to buy,4 example movies,football terrestrial tv,happy to advise if wanted
#252
January 13th, 2010 09:37
Talking of age, quite a few on here focus on 9 or 10 year olds when picking the winner. Here’s why I’m in their camp.
Age over 10 in the top 5
2004 – 3
2005 – 2
2006 – 1
2007 – 1
2008 – 0
2009 – 0
In the last 2 renewals, the record of participants over 10 years old:
2008 – 10 horses took part, 2 finished.
2009 – 9 horses took part – NONE finished.
So we’ve moved from 3 finishing in the top 5 in 2004 to zero completions in 2009. Is this a trend that’s here to stay?
#253
January 13th, 2010 11:05
Year; 11+; Under 11; Age of winner; % 11+
1990; 18; 20; 11; 0.47
1991; 18; 22; 11; 0.45
1994; 15; 21; 11; 0.42
1995; 15; 20; 12; 0.43
2001; 14; 26; 11; 0.35
2004; 13; 26; 12; 0.33
Winners over 10 (11+) tend to win when there are lots of other oldies around too
Year; 11+; Under 11; Age of winner; % 11+
1992; 16; 24; 8; 0.4
1996; 8; 19; 10; 0.3
1997; 14; 22; 9; 0.39
1998; 10; 27; 10; 0.27
1999; 10; 22; 9; 0.31
2000; 12; 28; 9; 0.3
2002; 8; 32; 8; 0.2
2003; 8; 32; 10; 0.2
2005; 13; 27; 9; 0.33
2006; 15; 25; 10; 0.38
2007; 10; 30; 10; 0.25
2008; 5; 35; 9; 0.13
2009; 9; 31; 9; 0.23
Winners 10 or under have won whatever the representation of runners – but appear to dominate when the number of oldies is in single figures (or 10 or less)
However much depends on the quality of the oldies – my stats show that shortlisted oldies (trends picks) have an excellent record 5/21 won; 8/21 placed (remembering that on average only 37% of all runners complete)
But the only shortlisted oldies in the past 2 years were D’Argent (U) & Rambo (P)
Basically you can prove anything with stats!
#254
January 13th, 2010 11:13
that’s 8/21 win or place (so 5 winners, 3 placed)
#255
January 13th, 2010 14:34
Hey Pablo – from your stats 1990 – 1995, four oldies won. From 1996 to present day, 2 oldies have won (2004 – Amberleigh House treated leniently for prior accomplishments – wouldn’t happen these days). The more seniors that take part, sure, the better chance one may win. Not too keen on 12 year olds anymore with drying ground etc but do feel an 11 will stick one to us soon.
#256
January 13th, 2010 15:09
Thaimark
Certainly looks that way – but would still consider 11yo or 12yo if stats fit – some are still relatively lightly-raced
#257
January 13th, 2010 15:10
Sitting in the public libray again doing that research – its driving me crazy but its got to be done – cant have the gang losing again this year can we?
Should be able to report by Thursday night.
#258
January 13th, 2010 16:05
good on you systemsman!
About that tv, I understand thethe LED contrast ratio is up the plasma level now, which was its main prob, sony good!
just checkin in, unfortunately got more pressing things to sort out, like my exploded oven! there was hot glass popping like popcorn all over, wierd thing is I imagined the door was going to fall off the day before, but not explode!!!
lucks not with me this week, so not going to ‘big up’ anything. Gone off ALL my fancies now I’ve picked them apart, for example just as everyone here seems to be coming round to Miko/Mike I’ve gone the other way, 6 F/UR orPU in last 10 chases, no win in last 10 chases although only 4 chances to, dodgey, ifs and maybes tho, doubting your choices is good analysis, not lost hope guys, I’ve just got to that stage, I need to find out who is unfairly weighted!!! Grrrrrrrrrrr! come on Phil don’t play with us, don’t play with destiny, keep it real!
Keep up the analysis, remember, people are copying our work cause its the best! We rock!
#259
January 13th, 2010 16:10
keep up the good work everyone but dont assume that just as good work/analysis doesnt exist elsewhere, some of which has been missed on here i think
#260
January 13th, 2010 16:23
probably does, but I’m happy just here with this friendly lot. Can’t stop people spying, plagiarising or whatever so just saying best to think of it as flattery, we do such good work we’re worth copying.. Go Team! if you have something to share from somewhere else we’ve missed, then share it!
#261
January 13th, 2010 16:32
dont want the price to be affected so will keep it to myself for now!
#262
January 13th, 2010 16:49
Showlad, people, there aren’t many things King John’s Castle has in common with the last 16 GN winners, or other runners up like Blue Charm or Mely Moss or 3rd placed in ’05 Simply Gifted. One thing is win place strike rate. (I’m coming round to the idea that lifetime strike rate is nearly or more important than just chase win place strike rate. Like Systemsman, I’m still researching.)
It isn’t the Holy Grail or The Meaning Of Life, but an important tool, I think, for those who want to narrow the field using stats. Looking at the last 16 GN’s 16/16 had a life time strike rate or chase strike rate of 47% or more on race day. To me it’s logical that high s/r% = consistency. I’m only using ‘raw’ figures as it were, not counting a 4th in a 18 runner handicap though when you actually look through form there are 3rd’s in four runner races so swings and roundabouts. In the last 15 GN’s no horse has even finished in the first 3 with a chase strike rate less than 42% on race day. Actually, only Bobbyjo with 42%, was under 45%. Roll on April!
#263
January 13th, 2010 17:25
Matthaus says:
January 13, 2010 at 4:10 PM
keep up the good work everyone but dont assume that just as good work/analysis doesnt exist elsewhere, some of which has been missed on here i think
Is there a point to this post?
I don’t think anyone on here is that arrogant – which is why we are all exchanging ideas
If something is being missed then put up or shut up, thanks
#264
January 13th, 2010 17:32
i think the arrogance is yours, crying when writing on a forum is used elsewhere, of course it will be, it happens to everyone with good ideas…like i said i dont want the price to go so wont be putting anything on here especially as its been missed so far..keep up the good work all the best and less of the head up your own butt would be good for readers i feel
#265
January 13th, 2010 17:42
Matthaus = Big Bucks of TRF
care to enlighten us with any new ideas, or would you rather just read and criticise!?! Fancies Dear Villez for the national – any more comments needed?
#266
January 13th, 2010 17:46
i have read his stuff too yes, he likes miko like some on here, im just giving an opinion not bothered about forums or gangs etc
#267
January 13th, 2010 17:47
Sorry it doesn’t bother me if my research is used elsewhere – I have posted up stuff on Betfair before too – this forum is about sharing ideas
Why bother writing on this forum that we have missed something and you’re not going to tell us what we’ve missed?
Not exactly constructive
#268
January 13th, 2010 17:48
Matthaus, your performance at the 1998 World Cup was … oh, hang on … a good idea, eh, well share and share alike. The trouble with Britain today is it’s I’m alright Lothar and sod the rest of ya, come on smile, all these stats are in code anyway, the code decipherer is available from all good adult shops, £28.50 pp. Ask for, ‘A large Canal Turn, please’, and the assistant will see you alright.
#269
January 13th, 2010 17:54
i do my own work its ok like i said, lothar was a great player imo ha, just some of you good folk were slating others for using work its a forum its an open house so relax and keep going///seems odd you want 2 advertise a horse or price before backing it urself thats the reason im saying keep going but will keep my edge for me seems fair good luck
#270
January 13th, 2010 17:56
No point you gleaning others info and benefitting from it but then keeping your own views/tips to yourself Matthaus.
Crikey we’ll rename you Magpie lol. C’mon share and share alike..
#271
January 13th, 2010 18:00
Fair dos Matthaus
#272
January 13th, 2010 18:02
btw team what do we make of Beat The Boys? Great Class 1 win at Newcastle 6 weeks ago. Obviously prefers g g/s which he’ll get at Aintree. Good strike rate (45%). OR 148 – fine.
#273
January 13th, 2010 18:25
Not a fan of Beat the Boys. In his 4 races of 3m4f and over he has finished tired. Admittedly these runs were on soft/heavy ground, but would need to take stamina on trust
#274
January 13th, 2010 18:28
Anyone going to own up to destroying CI’s price on BF, He’s now lower thsn HB!!
A few interesting entries in the gold cup, probably having preps for the national including Mr Pointment
#275
January 13th, 2010 18:44
4 of last 5 of BTB’s wins of 3m or over state ‘stayed on well/stayed on gamely etc’ so not sure where you’re getting this view from Speedy.
#276
January 13th, 2010 18:45
Yep, but not on his runs of 3m4f or over! Maybe he peaks at 3m2f? Maybe not, and failure may be just down to the ground.
#277
January 13th, 2010 18:46
Crickey Matthaus! think you may have been a bit misunderstood, you’ve rubbed everyone up the wrong way here, know you’ve dropped in sometimes?. can’t recall when or any of your opinions or stats and I’m sure everyone would welcome your angle, but to swing in with ‘you’ve missed something’ and not sharing but critising, then flattering yourself with ‘the price will be effected’ if I tell you attitude,.. well its a bit much, noone knows enough about you, so why think that?! join in or you’ll just end up a spy, and thats a bit creepy!
#278
January 13th, 2010 19:34
Matthaus good luck with those bets. I hope you do pick the winner. Chances are though we will also be on it. Personally I would like to repeat ninety eight were i had the winning forecast.
#279
January 13th, 2010 19:34
apologies not intended// will post thoughts if and when they become worthwhile as they are not yet lol weather playing havoc isnt it
#280
January 13th, 2010 19:58
TC says:
January 11, 2010 at 6:26 PM
How’s Geralds AP bets going, did notice Garde Champetre as his main one
Fairly poorly. Main hope of a good result is with Miko. Otherwise, basically hoping an Irish horse wins. Beat The Boys is another good ‘un – I’m discounting last season’s form because of NATD’s form during the winter. I thought BTB travelled very well at both Wincanton and N’cle, and I think there’s more in the locker.
Coe, Ballytrim, Merigo, Jass etc haven’t put up a good performance to get into the race.
Himalyan Trail and Golden Flight have both dropped through the handicap. Bothar na is frustrating his trainer even more than he is frustrating me.
#281
January 13th, 2010 20:07
Most of the problems are from the bets that I had in April, May, June, which I thought were quite sensible at the time. However, several of them were on horses rated below 140, and a couple of the aforementioned joined them, plus a couple of dead ‘uns, and the doubtful runner Garde Champetre.
In the end, I’ll just be grateful to win my money back, and try to have a more focussed attempt next year.
#282
January 13th, 2010 20:27
Everyone I think Matt is another Helohelo myself just trying to get a response from us.
#283
January 13th, 2010 21:08
Well a few a very few runners are clearly beginning to excert themselves in all my work – the same names time and again (so we wont be doing “Rambo” this year). Hope to post my latest research on Friday night – almost complete but I need 24hours or so to make sence of it all.
But i will tell you this now. Church Island is now down to 60/1 on Betfair, he will be in my top six list and he has one of the two best price profiles of all runners (if he gets in on OR 143 or thereabouts he will be in the top 4 in the betting by GN race day). That price will continue to drop. But he’s not the only “good thing” I can assure you – who are the others? And who has the other perfect price profile? Well you will have to wait till Friday night to find out.
Do you remember the Saturday morning cinema when your were a kid? – well its like that you have to wait for the next instalement/post! The excitement mounts!
#284
January 13th, 2010 21:31
Some news on Tricky Trickster…..
http://www.prweb.com/releases/grandnational2010/trickytrickster/prweb3433214.htm
#285
January 13th, 2010 21:35
And a snippet on Character Building… heading for Cheltenham before the GN?? Am I right in saying that horses that have ran at the festival generally don’t win a GN or am I mis informed??
“Trainer John Quinn has twice been thwarted in his bid to get the 10-year-old grey back on the track since his victory at the Cheltenham Festival
Quinn said: “At the moment we’re looking at the Sky Bet Chase for Character Building and he might run there. He had a stone bruise that kept him off for a little while after Cheltenham and he was actually ready to run in the Hennessy but got a knock 10 days before the race.”
He added: “We hope to get to the Grand National with him this year, but we will be trying to do what we can with him along the way.
“You’re in trouble if you wait for the National and then fall at the first fence. Aintree is part of the plan but it’s not the big plan. We’ll stick him in a handicap at the Cheltenham Festival as well.
#286
January 13th, 2010 21:53
Matriarch
Make it 6/19 to have run at Festival – all fared pretty well, some very well
Mr Frisk – 4th Kim Muir
Seagram – 1st William Hill
Miinnehoma – 7th Gold Cup
Rough Quest – 2nd Gold Cup
Bindaree – 7th William Hill
Silver Birch – 2nd X-Country Chase
Character Buidling – don’t know what to make of him – decent horse or Class 2 showboat?
#287
January 13th, 2010 21:55
Don’t want to upset everyone here, but this info might change things. This from my racing paper ” It may be 3 months away, but the GN is already an appealing ante post project. The beauty about this year’s race is that we already know the most likely top weight, with connections of Notre Pere having declared their intention to run him at Aintree. Jim Dreaper’s gelding has a rating of 163, whereas last year’s top horse Cloudy Lane headed the weights on 158. The difference may not seem much, but 5 pounds is significant, as it should ensure that leading fancies Tricky Trickster and Possel creep in under the all- important 11 stone barrier. State Of Play was 4th last season under 11-02, yet, if getting in off his current mark of 145, would have only 10-06. Food for thought. ” On this site we’ve been working on the assumption of Mon Mome being top weight on rating 161 and weight of 11-10.
#288
January 13th, 2010 22:05
Notre Pere is an AP nightmare, personally i’d be surprised if he ran in the national. Surely connections will find the Punchestown gold cup too hard to resist after winning so easily last year. Phil Smith could yet drop NP a couple of pounds, putting him on the same mark as Mon Mome. I dont think 2lbs is going to change too much
#289
January 13th, 2010 22:24
Below is a list of those horses whose GN rating is + or – 2lb their OR
Not sure how accurate this is (got from a spreadsheet from last year around weights day) – but it’s meant to be difference between GN rating and OR; horse; possible reason for difference
8; Chelsea Harbour; Irish
2; Comply Or Die; GN
7; Black Apalachi; Becher/Irish
8; Hear The Echo; Irish GN
7; Preists Leap; Irish
12; Butler´s Cabin; Irish GN year before/GN
-2; Offshore Account; Injured
4; L´Ami; Irish
4; Irish Invader; Irish
5; Brooklyn Brownie; Grand Sefton
3; Himalayan Trail; Irish
3; Idle Talk; McCain/regular Aintree
#290
January 13th, 2010 22:59
TC “Phil Smith could yet drop NP a couple of pounds, putting him on the same mark as Mon Mome. I dont think 2lbs is going to change too much”
Agreed and makes little difference to my calculations other than those on around OR150 ish (DA being one on OR151 and Possal OR151.As TC says the top is just as likley to be OR 161 NP or not.
#291
January 13th, 2010 23:26
Said I keep you lot informed on the weather, this part of the country. Weather report says the slow thaw will continue.
By Friday it predicted the thaw will start for real on west side of mainland britian.
#292
January 13th, 2010 23:57
I’ve also just read about Character Building; there’s no way that I can’t not have a small ew on him again this year, even though stats wise he will be a no no. I was gutted when he was pulled out of the race last year. Just hope he gets to the race itself this year.
#293
January 14th, 2010 00:58
I thought initially there was no pattern after hard winters, but now I’ve pinpointed them and seen a full annual list of race conditions,.. there is! spring is usually wet or very wet!!!- well it is at aintree.
Ofcourse we don’t know if this cold winter is going to continue beyond january, if that matters or indeed if the gulf stream is packing in for good! (in which case this is quite warm for this far north and they’ll probably be no racing ever!;)) but… lets say history repeats, the ground will be soft or heavy.
First of all, how different is drainage on the course today, I don’t know, will it just be soft?
If it is heavy then only around a quarter are likely to finish,. so shall we have a vote for the ‘heavy top3?’ its best mudlark time!
#294
January 14th, 2010 01:10
sorry I’m not ready with mine as only just noticed there is a pattern, excited tho, as it would change the whole thing, some Irish horses would probably benefit, nothing springs to mind and its late, anyway to form a heavy list I suppose best wait to see if a drainage expert is around incase its more likely to be soft these days, as I’ve been led to believe.
#295
January 14th, 2010 01:17
That’s interesting KJ and makes anti-post betting even more risky. Anyone who wants to waste cash now for a big price (why do you think the high street bookies aren’t quoting them!) without knowing going or trainer plans is surely doing it for bragging rights. These same people will come on after and tell us how much they won but conveniently forget all the profit sapping APs.
#296
January 14th, 2010 06:10
If like you say heavy or soft then DA has got to be on short list. Someone mentioned on here its winning pattern on such ground. A bit like ES in 98.
#297
January 14th, 2010 06:58
Kj the is one point you’ve forgotten and that is National is a week later than normal this year because of Easter.
#298
January 14th, 2010 12:10
Getting a little carried away here trying to predict he weather for April – the Met cant even get it right 24hours ahead!! This is a pointless exercise till we are much closer in time.
Many of our top runners can run on almost anything. I dont think we will be far wrong if assume Good/Soft and look for the odd good thing that prefers the softer side and also the odd one or two the firmer side – then we cover all angles. Its why you need a portfolio of runners for the GN not just one or two (and why I think anti-post is a must if you want to win big).
ThaiMark
You are so wrong. What makes this race totely unique is the anti post prices. I always assume I am going to lose the odd bet or two going in early but the profit more than makes up for it. This year 33/1 and better has been available on a number of top runners – on the day they will on the whole be 15/1 or less.
With the GN I have always seen it as an investment a sort of savings plan for the winter. You buy shares in runners and hope they increase in value (or at least if you have the winner). If I win 1 in 2 I am more than happy – its also a lot of fun which my whole family enjoy – we make it into a sort of GN party in the afternoon (we also now do this for the Euro Song Contest – we are a “sad” family!). If I win I always put aside the GN betting bank for next year. Now last year I lost but recovered all the stakes + more on the Eurovision Song Contest and gave the winner out to everyone on here well before the contest – this became the 2010 betting bank, so all this year bets are free!!
So if you win you must reinvest some of the profit for next year and not use it till the following years GN.
#299
January 14th, 2010 17:52
Hi Team, can we help each other by updating on any horse and their ‘intentions’ to run at GN or not e.g. we know Dream Alliance is Aintree bound.
Listed a few below if any can help with any info on their intentions great.
HELLO BUD
GONE TO LUNCH
TRABOLGAN
DON’T PUSH IT
CHURCH ISLAND
Any other info on intentions of any horses at all making waves on out site would be very grateful.
#300
January 14th, 2010 17:59
Price update;
Church Island sinking down like a stone in price now 50/1 on Betfair (down 10points in one day)- I did warn you. Now just how many people are reading this blog? (will the bookies pay us some comission?)If you want some of the action get on while you can. Be aware he not the only runner with a great profile but one I already wake up in the middle of the night about worried he dosnt get in on OR 143 ish (I think he will by the way). What a profile, what a price (still, but not much longer)!!
#301
January 14th, 2010 18:10
Showlad – Send a few e-mails, been already informed what CI’s target is
I would think Hello Bud and Dont Push It are definitely intended runners. GTL would be a useful one to find out, as Jim Scott has already sounded pretty negative towards the national
#302
January 14th, 2010 18:17
So I take it CI is Aintree bound (you didn’t say lol). Thanks
#303
January 14th, 2010 18:18
shhhhh
#304
January 14th, 2010 18:27
Showlad, what about a new vote.
#305
January 14th, 2010 18:59
Hey Miinehoma
Next vote is w/c Feb 16 when weights are released
#306
January 14th, 2010 20:21
Showlad your a spoil-sport but if the rules are set in concrete then so be it.
I see Snowy Morning is back on his proper OR 149 with the RP but Vic Venturi still on OR 145 – can’t be right. Church Island still on OR 128.
Crisp ’73 – Your new stat – 14/16 20% c/s/r or 5 chase wins and 12/16 etc. is very interesting. Just to add to it, I make it 17/19 and 15/19. Did you notice if most or just how many of these achieved this by 31st. Dec in winning season.
#307
January 14th, 2010 21:04
Crisp ’73 – I forgot to say, your thoughts on l/s/r are correct but you must have gauged by now, very few want to know but then everybody is different. As you know the l/s/r is a mirror image of the c/s/r – 1 predicts and the other confirms, the key is consistency from day 1.
#308
January 14th, 2010 21:12
Miinehoma if the vote was now my vote would be exactly the same. The no new data in to form an opinion. When weight are in things can start to be calculated.
Had a look at our competitor. Don’t really like it much. Ours is more friendlier providing you are over 18 and act like it.
Just for fun, how would you new six differ from your original list?
#309
January 14th, 2010 21:32
Let’s just throw a fly in the ointment. ARE YOU GETTING THIS RACING FORUM. Notre Pere at rating of 163 is now on his highest winning mark, goes well in mud and in my opinion is just short of gold cup standards. Off top of my head the best chance to win carrying the saddlecloth number one since the legendary Red Rum.
#310
January 14th, 2010 22:10
“Notre Pere at rating of 163 is now on his highest winning mark, goes well in mud and in my opinion is just short of gold cup standards. Off top of my head the best chance to win carrying the saddlecloth number one since the legendary Red Rum.”
No chance. Even on heavy ground I would prefer others.
#311
January 14th, 2010 23:13
Neil S, Nice one. My top 4 wouldn’t change but I just wanted to see if others had changed their top 4 inlight of the many new stats.
#312
January 14th, 2010 23:46
Hey Miinehoma. Votes for the TOP 6 TIPSTERS TABLE is placed to gauge our collective thoughts at KEY points. Otherwise we’d be holding a new vote on every shifting piece of info. The gap in between allows us to reflect and then place our considered scores on the doors. The next key phase is post weights, then the 3rd vote is post Chelts and the 4th and final vote is at 5 day final dec stage. You’ve got a month to nail your expert thoughts
Neil I agree Notre Pere is BIG threat if going goes his way. The Welsh GN champ and Irish GN 3rd is a proven big race player. ‘Easily closed home’ is how his Punchestown Gold Cup win describes him (carrying 11 – 10) nine months ago.
#313
January 14th, 2010 23:48
Crisp re strike rates – if you find time could you outline a league table of our Top 25 and how they fare with this stat?
#314
January 15th, 2010 00:56
Any interest in Erics Charm 12 year old – He sneaks into the 30/30 stat via the less travelled route – 3×24+(1×28+). This route is 6/30 and 3/19 I think, the last being Lord Gyllene in ’97.
He seems to fit all the stats at the moment, has a nice OR 143 and 2 prep runs -01 and a mighty price on Betfair 290.
The bad news – no C1 win yet ( but has been placed ), has won his 5 chases right handed, infact 8/10 life wins right handed.
He was 2nd. to Lacdoudal in the ’06 Betfred and he won his last race, 30f by 19L, a class 2 at Sandown.
Sandown, OK, I have answered my own question – he’s a right handed merchant, just a thought.
What about Cornish Sett 11 years old – Could he be the new Mon Mome ?. Again this lad fits most of the stats, OR 139, 3 prep runs -PC8 and a mighty 430 with Betfair. Was 12th.(10.10- poor prep) in ’08 GN (MM was 10th.). Like Mon Mome he has been 2nd. in Welsh National and 8th. in the current season WN.
Stat wise at the moment the only fault I see is c/s/r – 3% short for Dec. 31st. But the big question is, what happened last year in the GN (10.10 – good prep), only 17th. Do we have any excuses for him – his da (Accordion), the going, the wt, was he mugged, etc. or is he a 430 Donkey.
#315
January 15th, 2010 04:18
At this stage the key races in the 30/30 stat are over but some horses may still qualify using the 3×24+(1×28+) route, thats if the stat holds. This is a list of some of the more fancied one’s in the betting and what they need. Will leave out GN 1st-3rd and gold cup horses – SM,KJC,WOA,CB,etc – those that wish to add them, fire away.
149 Tricky Trickster needs 1x24f
151 Possol 1x28f
149 Big Fella Thanks 1x24f&1x28f
141 Arbor Supreme 1x24f
148 Backstage 1x28f
143 Silver By Nature 1x24f&1x28f
155 Don’t Push It 1x24f&1x28f
147 Can’t Buy Time 1x28f
139 Offshore Account 1x28f
I wonder is it safe at this stage to write off Character Building, Butlers Cabin, and Mr Pointment because of no prep runs yet or should we allow them the 2/19 chance (Royal Athlete and Miinnehoma). Mind you those 2 were RSA/Gold Cup class.
#316
January 15th, 2010 11:22
* I for one would probably write off anything that has not run so far this season unless they win something very big (Class1).
* Showlad my post tonight should answer some of your questions about the league table and strike rate.
* Arbor Supreme I am confident this one will get his 1x24f or more and then will have one of the best profiles of any runner (inculding CI!)- in fact THE best profile. Even without it I am giving him the benefit of the doubt as he he so close(we should expect small tweeks in any trends/stats). Arbor Supreme my joint NO 1 – now I have given away tonights news but its worth knowing.
Everything about this horse and his profile shouts out “possible GN winner”!!
#317
January 15th, 2010 12:35
Did Cornish Sett have a wind op recently?
#318
January 15th, 2010 12:42
Not sure Maureen – think he had one 2 years ago (before 2008 GN)
#319
January 15th, 2010 12:51
Showlad, not sure if I’ve got all of our top picks covered, I’ve been checking them as they’ve come up in the blog. Been using 1st, 2nd, 3rd regardless of field size. Looking through form of this years potential runners and previous winners, 4th out of 20, 3rd of four, seems to even itself out to me. OK, so it wouldn’t pass any ‘scientific analysis test’ but which of our stats would! Narrow the field, if I can plagiarise Admin and Ben, is the name of the game.
December 31st lifetime win place strike rates of previous 16 winners, 42% or more, (15/16, 48% or more, Bobbyjo had 42 but a chase s/r of 53) would suggest negatives for State Of Play 39, Church Island 34, Niche Market 35, Iris De Balme 37, Black Apalachi 35, Hello Bud 35.
December 31st chase win place strike rates of previous 16 winners, 45% or more, would suggest negatives for Vic Venturi, 44, Miko De Beauchene 34, State of Play 40, Niche Market 38, Black Apalachi, 30, Hello Bud 43, Cane Brake 38.
It is only one stat amongst many but I think s/r’s along with Pablo’s handicap chase runs/wins info, RPR>OR, about 6/7 or more if OR in 140′s, 4/5 or more if OR in 150′s and placed in C1 chase could be the most important as a lot of 2nd’s and 3rd’s in the GN over the past 16 runnings meet the winner’s profile on these stats.
Systemsman, Arbor Supreme is looking good. Taking an all round view he could be the one to beat if he gets those prep runs in to his legs! Quite experienced on the track as well, just like the last handful of 8 year old winners, 14 chases or more.
Miinnehoma, Erics Charm was reportedly running and jumping well, though only lasting 6 fences!, in Topham. A fall over the fences is defintely not a negative. A test for this ‘right hander’ would surely be something like 29f Blue Square at Haydock.
#320
January 15th, 2010 13:10
Madison Du Berlais now on OR 166 – will this one go to Aintree?
He was stuffed in the King George – it’s either GN or Betfair Bowl isn’t it? He’s entered in the Gold Cup but doesn’t act at Cheltenham. Might get a lb or two clipped off to get him into the race – fell early on 2 years ago
#321
January 15th, 2010 14:07
Pablo
Madison de Berlais is definitely getting an entry for Grand National according to interview with D Pipe,however it doesn’t mean he will run,I think they will run in Betfair Bowl
#322
January 15th, 2010 14:19
I wonder what Madison Du Berlais could do to Comply Or Die’s weight? Under 11st?
#323
January 15th, 2010 14:39
Hi Team. Interesting re Arbor Supreme but am going to play bad cop to keep us all in shape. Looking forward to your research Systemsman but will throw this in the ring to keep us sharp.
Bad Cop: 3 out of last 5 runs has shown ‘kept on same pace’ not the ‘staying on well’ we’re looking for. Had ALL to gain and NOTHING to lose when putting in dismal 14th in Irish GN ‘towards rear, never a factor’. Considered him VERY highly on last year’s form, but last 5 races mediocre to very poor and this season in TERRIBLE form.
Bad Cop conclusion: Why look to tweek stats, plea a case for this horse when so many currently, I emphasise currently, better options are on the table (Hello, Dream, Gone to, Church, Niche etc etc). For me a GREAT set of results in 2008. But surely he can’t be held any higher in regard than MR.POINTMENT, TRABOLGAN etc if their next runs were to be a cracker.
As I say really looking forward to research and hope this deliberate devil’s advocate view is helpful. Unless info compelling I don’t thonk this year we should go too strongly down one street as if we’ve found the Holy Grail of GN hopefuls unless info is NOW and not on a wish list. Bad Cop – Over and Out!
#324
January 15th, 2010 16:34
I thonk! Hello Dream Gone to Church Niche, is a great accidental sentence Showland
hee, hee.
Very interesting that MDB could be entered possibly to help keep MANY other good contenders weight down, could give advantage back to classy types with higher ORs. Or, horses Phil rates could end up initially given more weight and when the top weights withdraw be worse off surely!
Remind me, if this is a tactic, at what point do weights not go up approaching the race, if top weights withdrawn? I thought it was the eve of race.
#325
January 15th, 2010 17:26
Can we be sure that Arbor will run off 141/142?
He’s entered in the Thyestes with a host of other Mullins runners next Thursday
Chance for another 3m win but he’ll have too much weight if he does – Preist’s Leap was hammered last year (18lb higher for GN) and Chelsea Harbour was harshly treated for his 2nd in the race
#326
January 15th, 2010 17:51
AS would be the highest rated of the Thyestes for some time, so dont really fancy his chances
Hopefully both Parsons Pistol and Oscar Looby both run, both of them could be potential national horses
#327
January 15th, 2010 18:07
No I don’t fancy him for the race either – mightr not even run – Mullins has 7 or 8 in there at the moment
Have to say I don’t really fancy anything for the race at this moment – so bet strategy is working well
AS would have been interesting had he run ok in the Hennessy
CI just doesn’t appeal to me at all – won one handicap off 128 and might have to run off low 140s – keeps getting beaten and setting the race up for others – was really off 127 in Irish National and won’t be able to have a claimer on board in GN
Probably means CI will bolt up with AS 2nd!
#328
January 15th, 2010 18:08
* so no bet strategy for GN
#329
January 15th, 2010 18:16
Pablo – I’m pretty sure CI would be a lot more appealing if he’d have won a major chase. The fact he hasnt has kept his OR right at the bottom of the national weights. Really think he will benefit off a stronger early pace from BA. The Bet365 was the race that has made me think CI can win the national. He’s also having a nice break, whereas all the others are struggling to get a run through this weather. Neither CI or NM will have the benefit of a claimer in the national, but i do think there its highly likely that Mr Geraghty will be on board CI
What would you do with AS? I would be prepared to be patient with him with his lack of prep.
#330
January 15th, 2010 18:42
Yeah AS is tricky – like some others I was really disappointed with him in the Irish and couldn’t think of backing him until I’ve seen him over fences again – not a good sign that he’a missed so many engagements like you say
BJG on board would be a big bonus to any horse – my impression of the Sandown race was that it was a Class 1 race in name only – poor race 0-145 handicap and only 1 horse has come out and won since from 42 attempts – in a Veteran’s race at Huntingdon! But CI was running quickly after his Irish run so maybe harsh judgement
#331
January 15th, 2010 19:15
Grand National Review 2010 or The Scores On The Grand National Stable Doors.
So what happens when we compare our top 25 + one or two others with our key trends list. Who stands out and who ar the best anti-post bets?
These are the stats/trende that were used:
1. OR of above 135 on the day
2. Run in at least ten chases
3. Won a Chase worth at elast £17,000
4. Aged 8-12 62/62 AGE TREND
5. Top 4 chase, top 3 hurdle this season (from May 1st), 43/43
6. Won 1 of last 10 chases
7. 2-8 prep runs 28/28
8. 2-7 weeks since last run 28/28 (NOT USED)
9. Weight less than 11.04, 27/27
10.Top 3 C1 chase, 25/25
11. Won at 24f or more, 39/39
12. 32/39 placed at 28f or more, 3 of the 7 didnt race beyond 27f (given + in chart)
13. RPR of 144 or more 20/20
14. RPR of 141 or more LH 20/20 (NOT USED – do not have figures)
15. 2 or less career falls 12/16
16. The 30/30 stat. A -top 5 Hennessey/top 3 Irish,Scots,Welsh National/top 2 in race over Gn fences or B – 3 wins at 24f including one at 28f or more (A is 16/19,12/12)
17. Run in 10+ Chases
18. Weight no greater tahn 12lbs above bottom weight
19. Top 3 finish in a Class1 Chase over 3+
20. Top 3 finish in any of previous 3 runs
21. TS of 128+
23. Last run no greater tah 50 days (NOT USED)
24(A). Chase strike rate of 45%
24 (B). Combined strike rate for all Hurdle/Chase runs of 48% or 42% if Chase strike rate is 53% or more 16/16
A number of assumptions have had to be made.
Mon Mome to be 11.10 of OR 161. This chart would also need to be recompleted after the weighst are out and also again after the Chletrnham festival.
Personely I am not happy with 24B but I have given two sets of score with both 24A (A in list)and 24 B (B in list) – a * is given if the runner meets this trend
Maximum poinst is 20
Our Top 25 list with the points
A B
40 Niche Market 19/20 19/20
29 Church Island 20/20* 19/20
28 Dream Alliance 19/20* 19/20*
26 Hello Bud 19/20 19/20
21 Gone To Lunch 18/20* 18/20*
17 Black Apalachi 15/20 15/20
11 Comply Or Die 17/20* 17/20*
10 Trabolgan 16/20* 16/20*
10 Big Fella Thanks15/20* 15/20*
10 My Will 18/20* 18/20*
9 Snowy Morning 16/20* 16/20*
8 Miko De Beauchene18/20 19/20*
6 Don’t Push It 17/20* 17/20*
6 Siegemaster 18+/20* 18+/20*
6 Parson’s Legacy 18/20* 17/20
6 Arbor Supreme 19/20* 19/20*
5 War Of Attrition 17+/20* 17+/20*
5 Character Building18/20* 18/20*
5 Possol 15+/20* 15+/20*
4 Casey Jones 16/20* 16/20*
3 Backstage 14+/20* 14+/20*
2 Cane Brake 18/20* 17/20
2 Jass 11/20 12/20
2 Over The Creek 14/20* 14/20*
1 Mr Pointment 17/20* 17/20*
+
Tricky Trickster 12/20* 12/20*
Anything with 18 or over is a possible winner in my book but I think those with 19 in either column A or B are the real possible stars.
So who is top and bottom?
TOP using A (45% chase strike rate). The points on the left after the fisrt number are those given by all posters for the Jan 1st poll.)In order
PROBABLES
1. 29 Church Island 20/20*
2. 6 Arbor Supreme 19/20*
2. 28 Dream Alliance 19/20*
4. 40 Niche Market 19/20
4. 26 Hello Bud 19/20
POSSIBLES
6. 21 Gone To Lunch 18/20*
6. 10 My Will 18/20*
6. 5 Character Building18/20*
6. 6 Siegemaster 18+/20*
6. 6 Parson’s Legacy 18/20*
6. 2 Cane Brake 18/20*
BOTTOM (and good lay bets)
1. Tricky Trickster 12/20*(and No 1 the betting!!)
2. 3 Backstage 14+/20*
3. 2 Over The Creek 14/20*
No using list B (Combined strike rate for all Hurdle/chase runs of 48% or 42% if Chase strike rate is 53% or more 16/16) how doe sit compare and who is tops in both A and B?
PROBABLES (no 20/20 in this list)
1. 6 Arbor Supreme 19/20*
1. 28 Dream aliance 19/20*
1. 8 Miko De Beauchene19/20*
4. 40 Niche Market 19/20
4. 29 Church Island 19/20
4. 26 Hello Bud 19/20
POSSIBLES
5. 6 Siegemaster 18+/20*
6. 21 Gone To Lunch 18/20*
6. 10 My Will 18/20*
6. 5 Character Building 18/20*
BOTTOM (and good Lay best)
1. 2 Jass 12/20
2. Tricky Trickster 12/20*
So adding up the points (based on position) for both the top (Probbables and Possibles) for A and B who comes out on top – the lowest combined score is the best.
TO WIN GRAND NATIONAL 2010
1. Arbor Supreme 3
1. Dream alliance 3
3. Church Island 5
4. Niche Market 8
4. Hello Bud 8
4. Miko De Beauchene 8
7. Siegemaster 11
8. Gone To Lunch 12
8. My Will 12
8. Character Building 12
11.Parsons Legacy 13 or more
11. Cane Brake 13 or more
No that the basic scores and and does not reflect price profile but its does show the Jan 1st top 25 chart was accurate in my mind.
Taking into account a number of factors here is my won short list. I will post on the top few soon.
1. Arbor Supreme – perfect price profile (so far)
1. Church Island – perfect price profile (so far)
3. Niche Market – a lot wrong with his trends BUT!
4. Dream Alliance – if (and a big if) he gets the right weight.
4. Miko De Beauchene – on the points given above.
I like both Hello Bud and Gone to Lunch but the price profile and other factors such as dosage say a big NO at this stage (I have an early anti-post bet on them so am not too worried).
So thats it – will post more of my top picks later. Better post this before it all gets lost in the air somewhere.
#332
January 15th, 2010 19:30
Top of the betting:
Tricky Trickster – no runs
Arbor Supreme – 1 hurdles run
Backstage – no runs since the summer
Big Fella Thanks – 1 chase run
Black Apalachi – no runs
Comply Or Die – 1 hurdles run
Madison Du Berlais – 2 chase runs
Niche Market – 2 chase runs, inc key race
Possol – 2 hurdles wins
The Package – 3 chases, 1 win
Vic Venturi – 2 chases, 2 wins (inc Becher), 1 hurdles
Value to be had elsewhere?
#333
January 15th, 2010 19:38
Fine piece of work again systems man – hope they didnt have to throw u out the library because the wee woman wanted to go home .. interesting uve included siegemster – i mentioned this one a few days ago . interesting hes riding so high in the stats – i think this one could be a dark one if they decide to send him there . entered up in the thyestes and has been kept on the go through the winter so will be race fit . i like all of your 11 apart from your top 2 ..! i just cant see it with arbor supreme and church island even though they keep popping up in the stats . i suppose id better have a bet on these 2 just in case but i prefer the 3 you have just behind these 2 . niche market, dream alliance and miko … i think they are the best looking qualifiers so far . looks live we are all hovering around the same ones but arbor and ci still have some doubting thomas’s to convince .. !
#334
January 15th, 2010 19:46
crisp 73, re- your 14/16 & 12/16 – no need for an answer, I did that bit of work and Lord Gyllene is the odd one out.
#335
January 15th, 2010 19:53
Systems that some going, nice work. I see my two fav are up there, Niche Market & Dream Alliance. Nice to see that your prepared to also look at those with just one or two stats short of perfect.
Of course it will be interesting when we know the correct OR and weight Phil Smith will assign the field.
#336
January 15th, 2010 20:04
great stuff systems!
#337
January 15th, 2010 20:46
Excellent work Systemsman
#338
January 15th, 2010 21:08
Amazing work systems, but what about Big Fella, SOP and Black App. They should go well, plus they have the important factor of National experience and a touch of class.
Do we know predicted weights for these?
Big Fella is now 8yo, SOP 10yo and BA 11yo.
Also Silver by nature was flying at the end when 2nd to Dream alliance. Thoughts chaps?
#339
January 15th, 2010 21:17
Also Snowy Morning might run well if back on a lower weight. Anyone think he might have a squeek along with my picks above?
Thinking of getting my first bets on Big Fella and BA.
#340
January 15th, 2010 21:59
Was looking at the odds and Cloudy Lane/Southern Vic are 120 and 180 at the moment. Granted they didn’t stay but might be worth a shout if getting a low weight.
#341
January 15th, 2010 22:38
Top work Systemsman
#342
January 15th, 2010 23:17
Had a quick look again at Betfair(+ = quality of price profile)
Price profile looks excellent for TT+,BA,NM+,Possol++, AS+++,DA+,SM,MDB++,CH+++ (checked down to Garde Champetre)so the money backs my list or is the money following my list?? (but it does give me confidence for my anti-post bets)
Question: Who is backing Tricky Trickster? – I make him one of the bast lays for the GN. I can only presume one of the big tippsters lines has given him out early and wasted everyone’s money – lay and lay and lay again (one for next year or the year after maybe at best). Anyone support him or agree with me?
I would be interested in a few peoples informal top six as we have had some time to reflect since the first poll – not a poll (the next one after weights come out) just out of interest so that i can compare and contrast and see if I have made any mistakes or overlooked a good thing or two. I could have it all wrong?
#343
January 16th, 2010 00:17
Sorry don’t have a top six but have steadily backed Cane Brake on Betfair in the belief that he’s very well handicapped, might stay & trainer has twice placed Slim Pickings (an inferior beast imo) – hoping he shows some proper chase form before the race and stays on a decent rating! And Betfair price reflects those concerns I think
Encouraged to see that he’s no folorn hope on your system Systemsman
Otherwise weighting until much nearer the time with doubts over top weight, ground, line-up, #runs etc
#344
January 16th, 2010 00:18
* Otherwise waiting not weighting!
#345
January 16th, 2010 00:21
* Forlorn
Getting late
#346
January 16th, 2010 00:22
Great research Systems. I do think there should be naturally a lot of one’s own ‘wisdom’ and gut instinct on top of stats and research, which is what will decide our individual bets in the end.
Not a fan of Arbor’s recent form. Especailly his none placing at one of the ‘biggies’ – Ramboesque?
Re Top 6 outlines, think this weakens poll takes, but good idea for people to voice their current hotties, whether that’s 2 horses or 12.
Be great to see your same research over an even wider list (case any slip through the net – KJC?) rather than just our Top 25 – though the library assistants may kill you, lol.
Well done and thanks
#347
January 16th, 2010 09:01
Showlad good call – Heres Silvers “half dozen Hotties” at the mo
Niche Market
Dream Alliance
Miko De Beauchene
Hello Bud
Church Island
My Will
Birchys Betfair Blockbusters ( horses available at monstrous odds) who might run a good race and give people a fun run for their money at a price . On the other hand thye might not even turn up
Joe Lively
Siegemaster
Garde Champetre
Cant Buy Time
Coe
The only one I dont have in there is Arbor supreme . Ill keep a close eye out for this one in the Thyestes and take it from there . Would be great to get others thoughts on not only their current main fancies but any fun runners at a price they think its woth considering .
#348
January 16th, 2010 09:03
sorry forgot parsons legacy
Niche Market
Dream Alliance
Miko De Beauchene
Hello Bud
Church Island
My Will
Birchys Betfair Blockbusters ( horses available at monstrous odds) who might run a good race and give people a fun run for their money at a price . On the other hand they might not even turn up
Joe Lively
Siegemaster
Garde Champetre
Cant Buy Time
Coe
Parsons Legacy
#349
January 16th, 2010 11:06
You’re welcome SB.
As I said let’s look at our hotties at the mo, whether that’s 2 or 12 horses. In the form of our top 6, that can wait until we have had a really considered and deliberated opinion and then give it on w/c Feb 16 after weights.
So I’ll give my established hotties; ones to watch hotties and respected hotties. I may have missed one or two out, but as keeping with the spirit of Systemsman’s request, this should be a chilled out reflective list, not our major Top 6 vote – just a check-in so to speak.
Established Hotties in pref order:
DREAM ALLIANCE
NICHE MARKET
CHURCH ISLAND
HELLO BUD
NICHE MARKET
TRABOLGAN
MIKO DE BEAUCHENE
Ones to watch Hotties in pref order:
MR POINTMENT
ARBOR SUPREME
PARSONS PISTOL
BEAT THE BOYS
SIEGEMASTER
BALLYTRIM
Respected Hotties:
COMPLY OR DIE
BLACK APALACHI
KING JOHNS CASTLE
SNOWY MORNING
RAMBLING MINSTER
CHARACTER BUILDING
At this stage I would be worried, agreeing with Pablo, if my options were shorter – there’s a LONG LONG WAY TO GO!
#350
January 16th, 2010 11:10
Is that a sign that NICHE MARKET got typod in twice – KJ?
Seriously guys I want to say thanks for the good nature anmd spirit of this year’s Blog and any niggles have been cordially nipped in the bud in the most gentlemanly manner(with the exception of 1 that admin stepped in). Let’s keep this unblinkered, open minded and respectful team attitude – IT’S THE WAY TO FIND THE WINNER!
C’mon Guys my friends Systemsman and KJ need a good Telly and Oven out of this
Let’s find the winner!
#351
January 16th, 2010 11:25
Great stuff systems, was going to put up my 6 last night but a few ciders were beckoning
From a current backing point of view, there would only be 2 i’d be interested in.
Church Island
Miko de Beauchene
I don’t think there is any value in Arbor Supreme, Dream Alliance or Niche Market’s price. My views on AS are on his own thread and i would be currently worried about the preparation for him. With DA, he’s had a very tough race in the Welsh national, how quickly is he going to recover this time? Sounds harsh, but its taken 2 seasons to get over the hennessy and i wouldnt be rushing to back him before i see his next run. Likewise, Niche Market had a very tough race in the hennessy, on the evidence of his last run he hadnt recovered and neither have a few of them – need to see a lot better from him next time. Plus i still have the stamina doubts
So if i was picking a top 6 right now, i would be looking for the horses that have showed form and also be trying to find some value in the market
Church Island
Snowy Morning
Miko de Beauchene
King Johns Castle
Mr Pointment
L’Aventure
Two that just miss out are Cane Brake and Trabolgan
I’ve included L’Aventure in the hope that she carries on the upward curve and just sneaks in at the bottom of the weights, could be possible with another convincing victory
#352
January 16th, 2010 13:09
Still no official verdict on this year’s national and trying to keep an open mind. Unofficially my six remain unaltered. However last year the was three horses I had to back according to my research. One I was really keen on and backed ASAP was Hear The Echo. We all knew what happen there. In fact I think I read some people’s views at the time on here like War better. The second was the winner Mon Mome and this is not the first time I’ve let the winner slip through my fingers. The last I did a last minute bet on was Miko De Beauchene. So although not in my top six has too be considered a real theat. At the moment on AS i’ve no real views for or against.
#353
January 16th, 2010 13:10
Top six:
Cane Brake
Miko De Beauchene
Snowy Morning
Niche Market
Comply Or Die
Arbor Supreme
Reserves:
Dream Alliance
Royal County Star
Trabolgan (although Henderson’s record in the race post-1989 is dismal)
Ballytrim
#354
January 16th, 2010 13:58
It looks like the 3 most fancied horses on here currently are Dream Alliance, Niche Market, Church Island. Respect the first 2, but won’t be going near Church Island.
My favourites at the moment are as follows in no order. These include ones I would bet on now, and ones I am purely keeping an eye on as is likely they won’t run:
Backstage
Joe Lively
Nine de Sivola
Gone to Lunch
Maljimar
L’Aventure
Snowy Morning
Over the Creek
Boychuk
Big Fella Thanks
Siegemaster
Casey Jones
Arbor Supreme
#355
January 16th, 2010 14:46
Re: Miko de Beauchene
This may have been answered before but does anyone know the plans for this horse that many of us are putting in our top six or so as I have done. He is only quoted by one bookie outside the internet ones so far (on Oddschecker.com)so what’s the story? Dont want to waste money at this stage as i alreadyy have a fair bit laid out. This would be very helpfu;l if you can answer it.
The team is working well this year we are all keeping an open mind and some very useful comments in the last day for me to work on (the “hotties”). Even if I like one or two be aware that i will have a “portfolio” of about six against the field and a couple more as “stakes savesr+” by GN race day.
I can already see Showlad, Pablo, TC, Neil S and many others sitting on that hot med beach under the shade of a tree with their wife and kids sipping cool free “cocktails of the day” served by their AI hotel waiter all payed for by the bookies – bring it on!
I think we already have the winner in our sights we just need to pinpoint it a bit more into our top six by GN day.
Pop into that public library again – its so much faster than my home computer. There might even be few librarians with the GN winner this year (and half the staff in all my local bookies)! But dont worry most people still think its all about pin sticking, if only they knew the truth.
#356
January 16th, 2010 17:00
Interesting comments on POSSOL from Henry Daly – seems undecided whether he is going to run at Aintree or not.
—————————————–
“I freely confess that I’m a bit confused as to what to do because we’ve got so many options even though the Grand National has always been on the agenda. He’ll win another hurdle with a double penalty and he might go for a graded hurdle, the River Don at Doncaster over three miles. If he were good enough to run in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham in March it would mean him having a hard race before the National. I’m going to have a chat with the owner because he could run in the River Don then the Racing Post Chase and Aintree because the weights would already be out. The one thing I’m not concerned about is his jumping, but I honestly don’t know which way I’m going to go at the moment.”
#357
January 16th, 2010 18:38
This may sound stoopid but i need some advice from the experts on this forum. On Betfair can i just place a normal win bet without having a risk or liability as in matched betting. I just signed up and don’t understand this concept yet even tho i have watched the demo they have. Sorry for this guys and many thanks to whoever answers.
I ask this as i found a couple of good horses at about 200-1.
#358
January 16th, 2010 20:01
mighty work systemsman!
Looks like we’ve all got good judgement!? although I like to think so, would be nice to see how a few that didn’t make our top25 would fair through the system, something like SOP a horse that we fancied last year,. runs well fresh and with less weight,
one of the ‘ballys’..hey ballyfitz not listed? I thought this was his target? anyone know why he not even listed? ok well ballytrim seems to be one creeping into peoples lists inc mine! put something with no chance thro too, like I said worried how close all our top choices came out!
I also think the 141 RPR left handed figures, would be important addition, if anyone got them please post.
Think posting our latest thoughts a productive idea, stops us going round in circles before weights out and after our original 31st dec list is digested!
Some of us wanted this mid term reassessment, but were kind of told NO! remember noone is boss on this site, admin excepted, we should be open to new ideas and I for one think this ‘mid jan pre weights long list’ should happen every year.
My opinions have changed about some, so its a good exercise.
Some will probably have too much weight, but if Notre Pere turns up, well, more confusion as what could initially have less weight could end up with more if NP pulls out before the night before right?
Picked a top10, in some kinda no particular order-
Dream Alliance- classy, but has he run his race?
Miko- previous owner doubted aintree would suit, IF he jumps round, great chance.
COD- can’t rule out, hope can get less weight than last yr, as well beaten 2nd with 11st6, if NP runs could get 11st and go close.
Don’t Push it- OR 155, eek give it a chance phil!
Niche Market- nails?!
Seigemaster- 3 preps fit, great s/r, likes heavy
Trabolgan/ WOA- 2 top comeback kids. Trabolgan will get no weight!
Ballytrim- ahead of Arbor S & Casey Jones
BFT- doubts staying this far, but a year older
#359
January 16th, 2010 20:18
The A list
Trabolgan
Snowy Morning
Gone To Lunch
Dream Alliance
Parsons Legacy
The B list
Character Building
Butlers Cabin
Mr Pointment
My Will
Silver Birch
The C list
Joe Lively
Over The Creek
Cornish Sett
Erics Charm
Flintoff
#360
January 16th, 2010 20:29
I like Ballytrim too, but he’s going to struggle to get in off an OR in the early 130′s. Needs a win before Feb really.
#361
January 16th, 2010 20:57
I like alot on others lists that haven’t made it on mine
I’m also watching for
AS, Cane Brake, GTL, Nine de Sivola, My Will.
Its hard to rule alot out this time round,
can it really be a winning yr!?
currently looks like backing 10 could miss the one!
some popular ones I can’t have are CI, Parsons L, Mr.Pointment
some others that feel in danger of permanent pen!- BA, HB and Snowy.
I have stronger opinions on stronger horses if u like, thats because I remember past performances, dodgey jumping, not staying etc. Its hard to weigh that up against those you’ve rarely watched
#362
January 16th, 2010 21:29
Agreed – think Ballytrim would have to win the Thyestes on Thursday to get in – even then he might have too much weight!
#363
January 16th, 2010 22:08
oh, looks like Ballytrim could miss out, shortly after being picked out!
Snowy is down to run tmw, if anyone sees it please report, I want to know if he clouts a few as usual, which I’m afraid will be reason enough for me to get the permanent pen and finally say he can’t win the GN, unless snow clouds form again on the day
#364
January 16th, 2010 23:43
Connections of Cloudy Lane were very hopeful of a big run last year. He’s always struggled with the huge weights he’s been given; perhaps the handicapper might give him a chance this year? Another horse that I can’t ignore [along with Character Building] because they, unlike a lot of other horses have always been aimed at the race. However, not sure if the McCains feel that Cloudy Lane is an ‘Aintree’ horse. Feel that the National is very much a ‘trainers’ race and some [eg P Nicholls] don’t give the race the respect it deserves.
#365
January 17th, 2010 07:35
Certain horses will have a fixed wt.(*) irrespective of their OR. So at the moment the initial wts. might look like this for some of them -
Notre Pere 11.10
Mon Mome 11.08 *
Don’t Push It 11.02
C.O.D 11.02 *
Vic Venturi 11.01
War Of Attrition 11.00 *
My Will 11.00 *
Black Apalachi 10.12 *
Snowy Morning 10.12 *
Dream Alliance 10.12
Possol 10.12
Cane Brake 10.11 *
Tricky Trickster 10.10
Joe Lively 10.10
Miko De Beauchene 10.10
Niche Market 10.09
Gone To Lunch 10.09
Backstage 10.09
Big Fella Thanks 10.08 *
Can’t Buy Time 10.08
State Of Play 10.08 *
King Johns Castle 10.08 *
Character Building 10.06
Butlers Cabin 10.05 *
Erics Charm 10.04
Church Island 10.04 -OR143
Arbor Supreme 10.02
Mr Pointment 10.02
Hello Bud 10.01
Flintoff 10.00
Offshore Account 9.13 *
Cornish Sett 9.13
Parsons Legacy 9.13 *
Silver Birch 9.12 *
Kilbeggan Blade 9.12
Brooklyn Brownie 9.12
Trabolgan 9.12
L’Ami 9.12
OOdachee 9.10
Irish Raptor 9.10
Over The Creek 9.09
#366
January 17th, 2010 10:22
muRdeR initially no you have to risk something. However if for example you risk say a tenner on a 200/1 shot on betfair (199/1) really as you minus one to get what odds it is. You can lay off if it comes down in price. Say if it comes down to 100/1 you could lay for say twenty. Your liable for nothing and win a tenner whatever the result. If however it doesn’t come down you risk the tenner. If you lay first then you want to win a tenner and risk 200 times that. However if it drifts in price you can counteract your first bet. If you are laying though you need the necessary funds in your account. You also have to counteract your initial bet on the same market in this case the Ante post market and not on the day market.
#367
January 17th, 2010 11:10
From Phil Smith’s blog talking about the Becher Chase – so the Aintree factor does still exist – those Betfair articles were wrong then!
“Indeed I will use the “Aintree factor” to do my best to give all five of the finishers an opportunity to run in April as they have shown themselves to be more than capable over the big fences.
When I do the weights in February there are always owners and trainers who ask me to ensure their horse gets a run. I will be saying to them you will have to get in the queue behind the horses that supported the Becher Chase and showed themselves worthy of the chance.”
Miinnehoma
Are you sure that once allocated a weight, irrespective of whether the horse actually runs, then that is the minimum weight the horse will ever carry in the GN.
And do you have some proof?
I suspected that this might have been the case but have found an exception (there may be more):
Royal Auclair 2nd 2005 off 153
Royal Auclair F 2006 off 156
Royal Auclair F 2007 off 147
#368
January 17th, 2010 12:40
Pablo nice weight for HELLO BUD then…
#369
January 17th, 2010 13:31
Thanks Neil. I don’t really understand it at the mo. Its the selecting your own odds bit i don’t get but i will just have to look into it more. I will prob just put a normal win bet on at the price it shows if thats possible.
#370
January 17th, 2010 13:42
Snowy Morning has just finished 2nd (beaten 4.5 lengths by Scottsirish) over an inadequate trip. Good performance.
#371
January 17th, 2010 13:49
Wow, thanks Speedy, another one I can’t write off!
Indeed Showlad, kinda forgot how low in the weights HB could be, although surely he’ll get a few for running at all in the becher.
Still nice weight, can you remove permanent pen?
starting to think twice round the track for him obviously better, if he could just get away from them.
#372
January 17th, 2010 13:58
Year; GN rating; Horse; Position
2001; 134; Amberleigh House; BD
2003; 136; Amberleigh House; 3
2004; 139; Amberleigh House; 1
2005; 146; Amberleigh House; 10
2006; 139; Amberleigh House; P
2005; 148; Ballycassidy; U
2006; 139; Ballycassidy; F
2007; 141; Ballycassidy; U
2007; 148; Idle Talk; U
2008; 139; Idle Talk; 14
2009; 139; Idle Talk; 12
2006; 137; Jack High; U
2007; 135; Jack High; F
2006; 140; Joes Edge; 7
2007; 134; Joes Edge; P
2004; 136; Kelami; BD
2007; 144; Kelami; P
2008; 139; Kelami; U
2009; 139; Kelami; P
2007; 154; L’Ami; 10
2008; 145; L’Ami; F
2009; 145; L’Ami; P
2006; 142; Silver Birch; F
2007; 138; Silver Birch; 1
2009; 148; Silver Birch; F
The above would suggest that the GN rating can go down as well as up – so apart from Mon Mome I don’t think we can safely predict the weight for any other runner.
Or can we?
#373
January 17th, 2010 14:06
Its in the lap of the phils!
#374
January 17th, 2010 14:14
Can someone remind me which dates the first entries are listed, and which date the weights come out please?
#375
January 17th, 2010 14:17
entries close feb 2, weights out feb 16 according to the dates for your diary thread.
#376
January 17th, 2010 14:18
Pablo I never be assuming anything. Not even Mon Mome being top weight. However he will be close enough. For the purpose of my list i did look at the stats loosely ie done three miles and highly probable of running above OR 136. For me all the hard work starts Feb 16 or whenever the weights are announced.
#377
January 17th, 2010 14:22
Thanks KJ
#378
January 17th, 2010 14:38
Agreed, and its a close call at the moment. I fancy alot with too much weight to win really, and some that may not get in! both of which Phil could give extra too, thats a guessing game. Bottom weight was 10st5 last year after weights rose 7lbs I think, still best to find something in a more traditional weight bracket.
Can anyone remember at what stage when topweight withdraws, weights don’t go up? I think its as late as morning of the race.
#379
January 17th, 2010 14:38
Hope Snowy’s price doesn’t come in after that; still haven’t had my ew at 40/1! What will the handicapper do, with it being a 2 mile race?
#380
January 17th, 2010 14:42
Darn it; 33′s with Corals now; they didn’t hang about, did they?
#381
January 17th, 2010 15:58
This is lookin like a very classy renewel this Year!
#382
January 17th, 2010 16:45
PRICE UPDATE
Keeping an eye on the price pofile on our top runners on betfair for us all.
Now in my opinion something is wrong (or up) with Gone To Lunch.
1. 100/1 on a runner who should be 33/1-40/1 at most.
2. Price profile is bloody aweful and geting worse(graph is going up and up from left to right – the opposite of what is needed).
3. There is clearly no confidence in this runner for the GN at this time.
Conclusion.
Is he headed for the Scottish National (the money is indecating this is the case or something is wrong)?
Advice:Stay of Gone to Lunch for the moment until we know more.
What do you think?
Still had no reply as to why Tricky Trickster is so well supported (and still is today)? Any ideas?
#383
January 17th, 2010 16:57
Hey everyone, really sorry i’m asking this again but i just placed my bet on betfair and was a bit worried if i done it wrong.
I placed £10 on Brooklyn Brownie at 530-1 which were matched.
If it wins do i actually get £5,300 like if i had bet bet with other bookmakers?
Also, if it loses do i just lose my stake and am not liable for anything else. Its really confusing.
Someone please reply a yes or no so i can relax.
Thanks everyone.
#384
January 17th, 2010 17:14
Systemsman
As has been said before by a few on here – runners behind TT in the 4-miler at Cheltenham have done well since:
4th Can’t Buy Time won well at Cheltenham (albeit 2m 5f)
5th Hennessy – won Bet365 at Sandown
6th Kornati Kid – 6th in Hennessy
8th Niche Market – won Irish National (read on Betfair that trainer said he ran no race behind TT as jockey got instructions wrong)
F Parson’s Pistol (ground against?) – has won a race since
F Le Beau Bai (ground against?) – placed in Welsh National
F Coe (ground against?) – ran well for most of the Welsh
So on the face of it the form looks pretty good – although the first four home were held up so some of the amateur riders might have gone off too fast
Obviously TT has since been sold for a large sum to be trained by Nicholls but hasn’t been out since and was raised 20lb for his efforts
He’s only raced 4 timed over fences so could be anything – and Nicholls has talked about sending him to the Gold Cup (66/1)
NTD after Cheltenham in RP quotes:
“You never quite know whether they will stay four miles until they actually run over the distance but he always looked like he would, and he has jumped and galloped all the way to the line to win. Now we know that there is no problem in him staying this trip, the Scottish National at Ayr next month is the thought we have at the moment as you might as well strike while the iron is hot.”
But NTD did mention TT as a GN horse (along with Irish Raptor) after Hello Bud won the Scottish
But 18/1 doesn’t appeal remotely for such an inexperienced horse
Not for me – and not many mentions on this forum
But bookies aren’t taking any chances!
#385
January 17th, 2010 17:28
Thanks Pablo.
Its amazing that this “upstart” has achieved far less that Niche Market and many others yet is so supported. We have seen this sort of thing so many times – runs one good race and then blows up with all the extra weight thereafter.
For me Tricky Trickster is a “talking horse” and will trick a few into losing their hard earned money. If he wins a big Class 1 chase again soon I may be willing to revise my view (but then if he does they may see him as a future Gold Cup horse and not one for the GN). There are plenty of runners with far better credentials for sure (NM, SM, HB, MDB, DA etc).
#386
January 17th, 2010 17:32
Agree with all that
#387
January 17th, 2010 17:34
And should add that Novices tend to do well in the Scottish and Irish Nationals but never seem to produce in the GN against more experienced horses
Big difference in a Novice handicap for amateur riders and the GN
Although he clearly stays well and is bred for it
#388
January 17th, 2010 17:48
NTD would have won the national with TT – maybe not this year though. He would have probably run in the hennessy and welsh national. If it was any other year i think they would have also considered him a future gold cup horse – bad move to take him away from NTD in my opinion. PN doesn’t really seem to treat the national with much respect
#389
January 17th, 2010 17:56
Does anyone think Brooklyn Brownie has a chance this year. I think the ground will be in his favor and he was unlucky last year. Trainer stated he will most likely run again this year. I got £12 at 530-1.
Hope this post gets on. Most of my posts have not made it on. I dont know if the admin are blocking them or not?
#390
January 17th, 2010 19:44
To above post,
To ensure your posts don’t get blocked could you please use a consistent username – it appears you are using a variety of usernames and this is the reason your posts are being blocked.
#391
January 17th, 2010 19:55
Bb is another Presenting progeny and ran last year. The no reason on dosage why he can’t stay. I have to say on class he may be lacking. I think Niche Market is Presenting best chance. Having said that sod law is BB will win.
#392
January 17th, 2010 20:58
I plumped for BB last year instead of II and MM,
thought he would stay, his dam sire is Lafontaine, Papillions dad, didn’t get a chance to see as fell 2nd fence, I would say I think he was at the front of that pile up, looked like overjumped with a horse next to him.
I would also now read from watching his races that he’s not quite good enough.
#393
January 17th, 2010 21:04
Brooklyn Brownie 220/1 on Betfiar tonight. On price profile so far not a chance! His whole profile goes from left to right upwards all the way – the exact opposite direction to what you need to see.
No Class 1 win
RPR 143 – lowish
OR 137 – a bit low
2nd in a class 1 chase – OK
Won at 24f – OK but could be better
2nd in Sefton HC at Aintre – good
Conclusion
This is a class 2 horse that so often fail against the big boys on the day and he looks just like all the rest. May run (if he’s lucky) but not got the class to win and at 220/1 the money says a big NO!
#394
January 17th, 2010 21:14
I like horses, if I was you i’d lay off that £12 . Which if your first bet was at 530 to 1 and he’s now at 220 to 1 should be no problem.
#395
January 17th, 2010 21:39
There have been a lot of price fluctuations with Casey Jones. After trainer comments about travel sickness he jumped well into triple figures but recently went very low, before edging back up to the current price of 84/1.
I like this horse and is best going left handed. However, even if gets over travel sickness, do we think his weight may be too high?
#396
January 17th, 2010 21:55
If he gets over travel sickness would the be time to get him ready. Plus in my mind would the be a chance of him getting travel sickness before the big race itself.
#397
January 17th, 2010 21:57
Speedy
Was my main fancy for the race until he missed the Hennessy – had a few small bets in October/November – but wanted him to show some form in a true run handicap
If he lines up Carberry may well be on board which would be no bad thing
He’s entered in the Irish Hennessy & Gold Cup
#398
January 17th, 2010 22:02
A good performance in Irish Hennessy would be good but could push his rating up. A staying on 3rd or 4th would be nice!
#399
January 17th, 2010 22:07
RedRum, if your bet wins, there will be a 5% deduction from your NETT winnings on the market. So, if you have other bets on the race, ante-post, these will be taken into account before the 5% deduction is made.
For example, if you have £10 @ 10 on the winner, the deduction will be 5% of £90. However, if you also had 2 other £10 on the race that were losers, the deduction is 5% of £70.
If you bet regularly, so that your turnover is greater, the reduction will be slightly less than 5%.
#400
January 17th, 2010 23:00
RedRum,
I would say yes. If he wins you get £5300 – Betfair commission, if not, you only lose your £10 stake.
Pablo, Miinnehoma
Are you sure that once allocated a weight, irrespective of whether the horse actually runs, then that is the minimum weight the horse will ever carry in the GN.
And do you have some proof?
Blimey Pablo, did I say that ?.
Proof and crystal balls I have none, it’s just the way I walk.
As A.P.O’Brien would say “Listen, Listen” I just thought a rough list of the wts. might be some help.
For some horses I just used their current OR v Notre Pere’s OR163. For the others I looked at their initial GN wts. from the last 2 years, how they performed in the race, what Phil did to them and what he might do.
#401
January 17th, 2010 23:09
Miinnehoma
Sorry – no you didn’t say it – but I thought it was implied by the * next to the OR (i.e this is the minimum they will carry)
Just wanted to check because there will be some like State Of Play who ran last year and whose OR is lower than last year and others like (talking through my wallet) Cane Brake who was entered but didn’t run and is now rated lower
All be known on 16th Feb
#402
January 18th, 2010 00:28
Pablo, say no more, won’t be long now.
#403
January 18th, 2010 00:41
For those having problems with Betfair and what you are really winning/risking. In the title of the event you have the words more options and also an arrow. Click this and it will bring up a small box with more options. The section we are interested in is the profit and loss. Click all four options in this section so that they show a tick. Now when you bet it will display in one colour what could be won and in another colour your what you are liable for. Hope this sorts you out.
#404
January 18th, 2010 00:52
Forgot to say about Cane Brake, his current OR is down to 145 so he should be on 10.06 but I thought because of his 5th in Gold Cup and 3rd in Lexus he might stick him with a few more lbs.
#405
January 18th, 2010 00:57
muR deR when typing in your own odds (for backing) you can wait patently for it to be matched. If its not matched then no bet. Or change it to whats someone wants matched in the lay section. This will be the highest figure in the back section with the sum of money they want to win. If you bet lower than this odds betfair will match you with the better odds. Visa versa for laying.
#406
January 18th, 2010 12:35
Had my first dream for the national, it wasn’t the race itself so not that exciting, just a chat, think it was my first blog dream ever!
anyway, think I’m curious (and somewhat in the dark ) about Seigemaster.
He’s in my latest list and several others lists, but I haven’t seen him run that I can remember, hasn’t run further than 25f, won on heavy going tho, does he have the class.. what does his dosage say?
Can we build a profile for this one?
#407
January 18th, 2010 13:01
how far back does the RPR-OR +7 theory go?
I seem to remember it was Crisps stat and quite a recent development, like last 5yrs?
I haven’t applied this yet as feel phil could do anyting, just looking and saw that
VV who has hardly been mentioned here, any reason?
currently +13 even with his becher win surely will be quite well in!?
#408
January 18th, 2010 13:07
Hi Team
KJ Siegemaster should be running (along with a bevvy of excellent GN dark horses) in the Thystes on Thurs at Gowran Park. Siege has been placed on 5 occasions on yielding or good too.
With all the frustrations of the lay off should be a cracker.
Less than a month chaps before we REALLY know what we’re dealing with and the weights are issued.
#409
January 18th, 2010 13:21
Systemsman: From an old query you had re UK/Ire courses being left or right handed: when you go onto racing post and place horse name under search, in the horse’s race history, just hover your mouse over the course name abbreviation and it shows up which side the track runs on and gives a description of the course.
#410
January 18th, 2010 14:36
Systemsman, great work again on recent GN ratings post.
Well, been looking at ’20% chase win strike rate/5 chase wins’ and I think this is a really long trend, quite sure at the moment that it’s 27/27.
These are on my list, ‘top5 Hennessy,etc’ being most prominent stat, in current OR order;
Comply Or Die, Dream Alliance, My Will, Gone To Lunch, Erics Charm,
Lacdoudal, Trabolgan
against the ‘top5 Hennessy etc’ are;
War Of Attrition, Possol, Nozic, Snowy Morning, Nenuphar Collonges, Offshore Account, Siegemaster
KC, last year I made a note that all recent winners, 18/19 (I think) had recorded a RPR>OR 7, (Party Politics had 5) in one of their last 8 chases.( Party Politics’ 5 was also in one of his last 8 chases)
#411
January 18th, 2010 14:39
Arbor Supreme should also be in second list in last post.
#412
January 18th, 2010 15:40
Back to that discussion on ‘bad weather possibly affecting National runners’. I said that Lucius, ’78, was the only non-’top5 Hennessy etc’ to win in last 35 years. Well, runner up that year was Sebastian V, Scottish National winner in ’77. He had only made his seasonal reappearance in early March, injuries I think, and came 3rd in chase. He was entered for what is now 25f William Hill Trophy at Cheltenham Festival. It was to be run on 3rd day of festival but was wiped out by … snow! As the late great Reg Green said in his, ‘A Race Apart’, ‘one thought to be in need of a race was Sebastian V’. Did the weather change the ’78 GN result!!
#413
January 18th, 2010 16:46
Sorry admin i was using different names. I couldn’t decide what to use but i will stick with this one now.
Thanks so much Neil, i understand the backing/laying thing now.
Your right, i think i will lay Brooklyn Brownie to get my money back but i’ll still have some left on him so its all good.
I thought he was worth a punt at 530-1 to get a free bet at big odds. If he gets in it will be off a real low weight and if it turns into a bit of a lottery on fastish ground i’ll be happy having a few grand in winnings riding on him for nothing.
My other fancy is Hello Bud. Goes well on any ground but prob doesnt want it too soft. Cracking stamina and a turn of pace much like Mon Mome last year. Should get a lowish weight. 55-1 Thoughts?
#414
January 18th, 2010 16:55
Worth bearing in mind that many horses will have RPR-OR of +5 or more
But these horses didn’t last year:
Comply Or Die
Butler’s Cabin
Musica Bella
Can’t Buy Time
Golden Flight
Silver Birch
Brooklyn Brownie
Stan
Kilbeggan Blade
Fleet Street
#415
January 18th, 2010 17:01
Domidarko. This year there are various scenarios that can put different horses ‘in the frame’: weights, the going, how the race is run and pans out etc.
But in answer to your question the Scottish National winner (and a clear round at Becher, I was there – he had foot off pedal at end to protect his OR I feel) is EXCELLENT value at 55/1 whether as a potential winner or to lay at a profit later (he will go off around 16s I think).
#416
January 18th, 2010 17:10
Show-I was there Max Boyce-lad, surely you’re not suggesting Hello Bud was being schooled ‘under NH rules’ as it were are you!!
#417
January 18th, 2010 17:20
Had a look at BB on betfair last night after your enquiry. The 220 to 1 is offered by someone who is asking to lay at that price. In other words he asking someone else to back at that price. To lay you want a price quoted on the right hand column.
#418
January 18th, 2010 17:26
RPTV has a useful introduction as to the use of RP ratings in relation to OR
#419
January 18th, 2010 18:11
Now my dear friend Crisp, would I suggest suvh a thing!
To clarify: Hello Bud sailed round the fences and let’s just say the main aim that day seemed to be to achieve a ‘clear round’ over those GN fences and to familiarise himslf with them above all else. He seemed totally unpushed as he the others in the run-up sailed past for him to end in 5th place. But of course, his tun that day was all above board and within the rules.
#420
January 18th, 2010 18:11
tun should read run, lol
#421
January 18th, 2010 18:27
Showlad I thought the rules of racing was to ride out for the best possible place. Although the stewards never saw anything wrong.
#422
January 18th, 2010 18:50
Crisp – ‘20% chase win strike rate/5 chase wins’ and I think this is a really long trend, quite sure at the moment that it’s 27/27.
Church Island – 6/29 21%
Not a big fan of these s/r. it’s the key handicaps that are important. There are a lot of things that can go wrong with the l/s/r and i don’t think hurdle form has too much relevance to jumping 30 massive fences
#423
January 18th, 2010 18:53
Put this up a few weeks ago and the relevance of the scottish national to the grand national
How good a trial is the Scottish national for the Grand national?
Using the top 3 statistic from 1991-2008, there are 54 potential national candidates. Only 23 have ran in the national after finishing in the top 3 at Ayr though
The 23 runners have had a combined 34 attempts at the Grand national
21/34 did not complete the national
Of the 13 completed runs only 5 of them finished in the first 4 at Aintree
4/5 already had form in another key race before the grand national though (Earth summit & Supreme Glory won welsh nat, samlee & over the road were 3rd in welsh nat) – the one that didn’t was Superior Finish in ’94 who was quite a distant 3rd
This doesn’t bode well for Hello Bud. It looks as if the quickness of the ground at Ayr in recent years does not suit a potential national winner
#424
January 18th, 2010 20:36
Hi all, old friends and new – just checking in as we build up to the 2010 National. Hope I can provide some entertaining input for you as the week’s go by.
I believe there is a poll for top six contenders so I’d like to offer my contribution based on my work so far.
My current top six are
1) DREAM ALLIANCE
2) CAN’T BUY TIME
3) NORTHERN ALLIANCE
4) MY WILL
5) HELLO BUD
6) VIC VENTURI
I’ll be more vocal once the weights are announced in February but will post as often as I can before then.
#425
January 18th, 2010 21:00
As you know Helleo Bud was my joint NO1 before xmas but having looked at his dosage and price prifile, comments on here,etc he does not look good now (but I have a good anti-post bet on him anyway). I also was very impressed by that Becher Chase run – he clearly loved those fences. Take a look at his price profile – not very good – just started to dip down again but his price would have to drop a fair bit and over some time for me to be more confident.
crisp 73 post 10 seemed a very important post but I cant work out what you are saying. Can you repost in plain english.
“Well, been looking at ‘20% chase win strike rate/5 chase wins’ and I think this is a really long trend, quite sure at the moment that it’s 27/27.
These are on my list, ‘top5 Hennessy,etc’ being most prominent stat, in current OR order;
Comply Or Die, Dream Alliance, My Will, Gone To Lunch, Erics Charm,
Lacdoudal, Trabolgan”
Are you saying these are the only runners in the top 25 list that have a 20% strike rate????
#426
January 18th, 2010 21:15
Church Island now down to 44/1 on Betfiar tonight – looks like the team have been steaming in. Now just what price will the High Street bookies open up at if he is given a rating of OR143 or therabouts for the GN? Has a runner ever gone this low before on Betfair before the High street bookies even give a quote?
#427
January 18th, 2010 21:44
TC of those that placed top 3 in Scots National, the number that finished the GN course was 13 and for 40% (38.46%) of those to place in Top 4 of GN I actually think is quite a positive rather than a negative.
#428
January 18th, 2010 21:49
Systems
20% chase win strike rate/5 chase wins’ 27/27.
Church Island – 6/29 wins 21%
Really like this horse, and am very glad to have backe him early. The only stat that has come up is the l/s/r, which, personally i don’t like for many reasons. The other reason people have been opposing him is that he doesnt seem to see out his races (pipped at the line). Watched all of his runs this year and that isnt the case and i can’t see how a horse can ‘set up the race’ over 36f. Only got round to watching the bet365 (whitbread) in november – thats the race that needs to be watched. Wonder how long they have been training him with the blinkers on at home? Seems to have improved him a stone and his handicap form this past year has been very good (very canny training performance). Thought the Kerry national was a top race this year. Montys Pass won that off 130, CI a one length 2nd to a good ride from Ruby off 143. Hope he gets to Aintree safe and well and Mr Geraghty is on board.
There are 4 others i will be keeping a keen eye on over the next few weeks. Arbor Supreme, hopefully he runs thursday. Dream Alliance, need to see him follow up his welsh national win with another decent spin. The one main worry is the ground though – he clearly needs it soft or worse (Silver Birch had shown form on good ground). Trabolgan who is entered this weekend and the other is Miko de Beauchene who will probably run at Haydock once weights are released.
Kj, Showlad – i wouldnt be too hopeful of Siegemaster heading to Aintree. Gigginstown are only likely to send one horse like last year. They had the option of HTE and WoA
This year i would think the pecking order would be
War of Attrition
One Cool Cookie
Siegemaster
#429
January 18th, 2010 21:56
Showlad – 1/34 have finished in the top 4 after a top 3 in the scottish national with the use of the key race of the Welsh National
The ones that have finished the GN have the stamina but have finished quite far down the field. Maybe i just don’t value the SN in relation to the GN
#430
January 18th, 2010 22:20
No worries TC just research. Thanks. But you can’t discount the other 4 of the 5 who finished Top 4 GN just because they ran in another key race. Still Scots, Irish and Welsh are still what they are – a long trip, handicapped chase and very valuable gauges.
#431
January 19th, 2010 03:03
crisp 73,
re- your 27/27. Those extra 8 winners, did any of them only qualify by the 5+ chase wins or were they all 20% merchants. Last count 17/19 had the 20%.
Lacdoudal OR140, 11 year old, very good, forgot about him. I think you mentioned last april he might be Sandown bound, have we any GN news about him. I see he is down to run Doncaster 30th Jan. He still needs a 24f chase win to fit 30/30 stat, no chase win last 12 but everything else looks OK.
#432
January 19th, 2010 07:58
Hello all! Wow, there has been some serious homework going on here! I have a lot of catching up to do it seems! I am off tomorrow so will have a proper scan through all the threads then. At the moment I have no idea what to back but I hope this year I can manage better than a 4th and 3 fallers from my selections! I intended to back Hello Bud a while back but I see some are not so keen at the moment (although he has come in on Betfair overnight…typical!)
Anyway, off to work to earn some money to put on these beasts! Keep up the good work everyone!
#433
January 19th, 2010 10:03
Systemsman, no, I don’t think those on my list were the only qualifiers ’20% or more chase wins strike rate/5 or more chase wins’. Those that don’t include Big Fella Thanks, Niche Market, Vic Venturi, Black Apalachi, The Package, Snowy Morning, Nine de Sivola, King Johns Castle.
Looking at these figures with other stats including Pablo’s handicap chase wins/runs stat, Bindaree appears to be one of the most ‘unusual’ GN winners of recent times(no handicap chase wins, no chase wins after his novice days etc). Take him out of the equation and the ’20% chase wins strike rate/ 5 chase wins’ becomes
’27% chase wins strike rate/5 chase wins’. Now that would narrow the field!!
TC, have hurdles got anything to do with winning the GN? I don’t know but of the last 16 GN winners, Miinnehoma, Royal Athlete, Papillon, Red Marauder, Bindaree, Montys Pass, Amberleigh House, Comply Or Die’s lifetime win place strike rate was equal or higher, at 31st December, than their chase win place strike rate. (Lord Gyllene only jumped fences in UK) Of those who had a higher chase win place strike rate had a chase win place s/r of 53% or more. Does it matter? Who the hell knows but it does suggest a certain amount of consistency throughout their racing career.
Miinnehoma, sorry, yes Lacdoudal missing a 24f and should go on second list. Second list is growing perhaps ‘Hennessy’ stat is looking shaky this year.
An alternative way at looking at ’27/27 won one of their last ten chases’. Looking at the last 16 winners, when did they win their most valuable race? 13/16 did it in their last 10 chases but Royal Athlete won it during his last 11 chases, Bindaree and Amberleigh House, 13 chases. Perhaps there is hope for the likes of My Will and Lacdoudal on this stat.
#434
January 19th, 2010 10:51
Miinnehoma, according to the Times Archive, Grittar, Corbiere, Hallo Dandy, Last Susspect, West Tip, Maori Venture, RhymeNReason, Little Polveir all won 5 or more chases prior to GN win. So it’s interesting that in recent years Miinnehoma, Lord Gyllene, Bindaree, Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde won less than five though none of them had contested more than 15 chases.
#435
January 19th, 2010 10:59
last post should be; ‘Miinnehoma, Lord Gyllene, Bindaree, Hedgehunter, Numbersixvalverde, Silver Birch and Comply Or Die won less than five though none of them had contested more than 15 chases.’
#436
January 19th, 2010 11:06
Systemsman, re read your post about my post .. all I was saying was that I was researching ’20% or more chase win strike rate/ 5 or more chase wins’ and then I listed horses that I was keeping an eye on because everyone else was listing. Many of those I’m looking at are still falling on some stats and I wasn’t implying that all mine are 100% stats.
#437
January 19th, 2010 13:10
Does anyone know which horses have a 20% strike rate in chases?
#438
January 19th, 2010 14:07
Many thanks TC.
Wonderful work and so useful. Its such a strong trend is it not?
“TC says:
January 18, 2010 at 9:49 PM
Systems
20% chase win strike rate/5 chase wins’ 27/27.”
It will certaily help narrow down the field and reinforce or help to reject certain runners.
Now I’ve got a lot of new work to do checking our top 25 and the first 20 or so in the betting!!! (DomiDarko I’am now working on it [give me a day or two] but maybe someone already has the answer?)
#439
January 19th, 2010 14:29
Set yoor TV recorder for 2.35 Gowan Park (Ireland) on Thursday for the Tendrleen Thyestes Handicap Chase Grade A over 3 miles.
31 runners and about a third are down for the GN!(heavy ground at the moment).
SIEGEMASTER fans will want to watch this one.
Now a 2nd or 3rd from Arbor Supreme would be spot on (and give him a perfect profile)and I for one am going to top up my shares on him tomorrow before the race. Should be able to handle the Heavy for a place but a bit of Soft would be nice. Some prices are going to change (lower always lower)after this race for sure.
AS currently has a 21.43% chase win strike rate. If he didnt win he would be down to a 20% strike rate which is still OK (just). However its clear that a 27% strike rate is a better score to have if possible or 5 chase wins.
What a race for us all to savour!
#440
January 19th, 2010 17:14
Yes Systemsman – can’t wait what a cracker! A number of horses to look out for and also if we see a return to form for some former hotties this means the winner could come from many options.
#441
January 19th, 2010 17:33
I notice previous runnings have been a field of 18. Will all 31 get in or will this be trimmed back to 18.
Also any thoughts on potential winner?
#442
January 19th, 2010 17:37
No thoughts on the winner just yet for the Thyestes, but will definitely be watching Oscar Looby as a potential national candidate for the next couple of years
Pretty sure Nine de Sivola is out injured for the year
#443
January 19th, 2010 18:07
Hi TC. Parsons, Siege, Priest, Hold, KJC all good value…
#444
January 19th, 2010 18:17
Anyone give A New Story a squeak in the National?! Thought not…
#445
January 19th, 2010 18:27
Just to mention that Ballyholland won a 2m hurdle race today at Naas and has been traded at 49/1 on Betfair for the National (definite target). Not really one for me as stamina unproven, but worth noting anyway.
#446
January 19th, 2010 18:34
showlad – Think i’ll stick to the OR <135 for the Thyeststes, 12/12 stat
Ran in last 32 days is also 11/11, a lot of winners ran over the christmas period, many putting in below par performance in the paddy power
11/12 ran in less than 8 handicap chases
They’re the strongest trends i’ve got at the moment, might look into it a little bit more later
Do like Parsons Pistol though, but will wait for the decs. He could give the national picture a real shake-up
#447
January 19th, 2010 18:35
A New Story aged 12 now, but good record in Irish GN 3rd and 4th. Great placings history over stamina sapping races. Early great s/r but seems forever bridesmaid of last few years. You never know…
#448
January 19th, 2010 18:36
TC could you list who fits that stat, if you have time..
#449
January 19th, 2010 18:50
Showlad – I’ll try and get a decent post up later on the race – those trends narrow it down to about 10, hopefully can come up with a few more stats. Paddy Pub doesnt mind it heavy and has plenty of stamina so another one to consider
Didnt realise Oscar Looby ran today, hopefully they go to the Irish national with him
#450
January 19th, 2010 19:27
I think 10/10 winners have had a previous run at Gowran. I fancy Paddy Pub and e/w Parsons altho he has never ran at Gowran. Gonna be an interesting race. The Peter Marsh Chase on Sat at Haydock is another race i’ll be watching. Think Cloudy Lane bust a few OR weight trends last Year. Some good quality jumps racing tho!
#451
January 19th, 2010 19:32
For all L’Aventure fans (me especially), please note that she has been entered in a HURDLES race on Saturday. The chances of her getting another chase victory before GN weights are announced therefore seem very slim. No chance of getting in on current rating.