Grand National Tips 2010 (12)

Please add all your thoughts and tips for the Grand National 2010 to this thread.

The declarations for the Grand National have been released and all the original top forty Grand National Runners stood their ground meaning that well backed horses such as Chief Dan George and Whinstone Boy miss out. The reserves for Saturday’s race will be in this order:

Silver Birch
Cerium
Royal Rosa
Knowhere

The reserves will come into play if there are any non-runners announced before 9am on Friday.

In other news, jockeys have been confirmed for some of the leading fancies with AP McCoy going with Don’t Push It thus leaving Can’t Buy Time to Richie McLernon and, more surprisingly, Nina Carberry being announced as the Grand National jockey for recent purchase Character Building.
As things stand, high-profile jocks Richard Johnson and Choc Thornton remain without a ride in the Grand National 2010.

Big Fella Thanks currently remains the 7/1 favourite for the Grand National 2010 with Boylesports

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568 Responses to Grand National Tips 2010 (12)

  1. Daniel Edwards says:

    Well said Crisp

  2. REDRUM says:

    Thai Mark

    Don’t push its figures

    3 6 3 7 7 9 14 12 16 17

    Kept the 100% record of the system intact with a gradual increase of the numbers through speed to stamina.
    I think the figures proved big fella would not stay the distance.
    Hello bud and state of play also have the correct numbers but black apalachi’s numbers didn’t add up.

  3. whitearab says:

    Good to hear from you Crisp. You have been much missed and I also agree with you in general terms on the trends. I do use trends and as I posted elsewhere on the site, I backed the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th. I could not back Don’t Push It because of the weight he was carrying. My bet on Black Apalachi was done a long time ago and before the weights came out and that is why I did not back him more than once. But I think Pablo or whoever said we need to have a good think about key trends again was right. In the last few years we have seen trends that SOME folks follow all broken – headgear, French Bred and weight. Something I posted messages on a couple of times this year is that the profile of the last dozen or so winners has been quite similar in that they have all been very experienced to battle hardened handicappers but with a bit of class about them. That is the main thing I will be looking for in next year’s winner when the time comes. But I most certainly will stay with a lot of the key stats. Even on the ‘not to win over 3 miles’ stat – you could knock out 8 horses – none of whom were anywhere close to winning (indeed I think only 2 finished both beaten distances). The strong age stat (63/63) also knocked out 5 horses (one of whom also failed to meet the 3 miles stat too). What I think is becoming a stronger stat is one that Pablo and others put up a while back and that is number of races run/furlongs covered. Less than 4 runs in the season does seem to be a negative as far as finding the WINNER goes. I bet Dessie Hughes is cursing not getting another run into BA after the weights came out. And on the days since last run stat (14/49 days), only State of Play (and we all know why with him) from 6 runners who had not run in that time bracket were anywhere near it. So I do still strongly believe the National is a trends race in part but would also accept we need to focus more on class of horse and experience in terms of finding the winner.

  4. Pablo says:

    Systemsman (long post)

    I think we are moving into a new era with the GN and now it is a completely different race to the Scottish & Irish Nationals, where the prize money is relatively poor (£500k to winner in GN vs £100k).

    In fact I would think that Scottish & Irish National winners will start to struggle in GN because these races are simply inferior – recently won by horses rated 143 max but usually in the 130s.

    The shape of these races now is not unlike the GN in the Golden Age of Trends (2000-2008) – a minority of horses carrying >11’0 and usually won by a horse carrying 150 was common for winners, is that the topweight was only 158 rather than in the 160s/170s.

    What does Saturday’s result mean for trends?

    1. For me it would indicate that the 30/30 trend (which is already a bastardisation of performance in key races plus a dubious concoction of staying power in other, not necessarily key or even Class 2, races) needs to be binned or to be re-invented as one or more trends.

    2. Weight is no longer the issue it was – although if we did get a soft ground National it might be.

    3. The list of trends horses in this new age is likely to be longer than it has been during the Golden Age…

    4. …which means that judgement and a degree of flexibility will be needed.

    I’m going back to old school study for GN – form, class, preparation (to suit the horse & based on trainer), trip (or in this case – unexposed at the trip?), suitable handicap mark etc.

    As others have said, hopefully the blog will be as much about the discussion of the performance of individual horses as trends.

    Finally, I really do feel that the votes do nothing more than polarise opinion on here and actually narrow the focus of the blog. By concentrating our discussions on those at the top of the league we overlooked the winner lurking towards the bottom of the very first vote – for the second consecutive year.

  5. Pablo says:

    Take 2… the middle part didn’t make any sense!

    Systemsman (long post)

    I think we are moving into a new era with the GN and now it is a completely different race to the Scottish & Irish Nationals, where the prize money is relatively poor (£500k to winner in GN vs £100k).

    In fact I would think that Scottish & Irish National winners will start to struggle in GN because these races are simply inferior – recently won by horses rated 143 max but usually in the 130s.

    The shape of these races now is not unlike the GN in the Golden Age of Trends (2000-2008) – a minority of horses carrying >11′0 and usually won by a horse carrying <11'0. Scots & Irish Nationals should continue to provide profits for trends followers.

    In the 1990s an OR of 150+ was common for winners, but the difference this year is that the topweight was only 158 rather than in the 160s/170s.

    What does Saturday’s result mean for trends?

    1. For me it would indicate that the 30/30 trend (which is already a bastardisation of performance in key races plus a dubious concoction of staying power in other, not necessarily key or even Class 2, races) needs to be binned or to be re-invented as one or more trends.

    2. Weight is no longer the issue it was – although if we did get a soft ground National it might be.

    3. The list of trends horses in this new age is likely to be longer than it has been during the Golden Age…

    4. …which means that judgement and a degree of flexibility will be needed.

    I’m going back to old school study for GN – form, class, preparation (to suit the horse & based on trainer), trip (or in this case – unexposed at the trip?), suitable handicap mark etc.

    As others have said, hopefully the blog will be as much about the discussion of the performance of individual horses as trends.

    Finally, I really do feel that the votes do nothing more than polarise opinion on here and actually narrow the focus of the blog. By concentrating our discussions on those at the top of the league we overlooked the winner lurking towards the bottom of the very first vote – for the second consecutive year.

  6. andy says:

    SILVER BY NATURE has joined Denman as a defector from Saturday’s Coral Scottish Grand National after injuring a leg at the weekend.

    RELATED LINKS
    » Scottish National card
    » Scottish National betting
    Lucinda Russell’s stable star, runner up in the Welsh equivalent and an impressive winner of the Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock, was made 6-1 favourite by the sponsors following the announcement that previous market leader Denman would miss the contest.

    Russell, who trains the stayer for St Johnstone FC chairman Geoff Brown, said: “It’s devastating for the yard and Geoff was absolutely unbelievable the way he took such bad news.

    “He has chipped a bone at the back of his knee and our vet Hugh Sommerville has told us he needs six weeks boxand a nice summer out at grass.”

    Denman was ruled out of the Ayr marathon on Sunday night with connections preferring instead to target the Punchestown Festival.

  7. Brody says:

    #135

    Brody
    April 9th, 2010 11:03
    Nice idea Daniel:

    THE ONE HORSE;

    I WIN MOST MONEY ON – Character Building

    I THINK MOST LIKELY TO WIN – Niche Market

    I HAVENT BACKED BUT WOULD LOVE TO SEE WIN – Don’t Push It – McCoy deserves a win in the GN for services to racing

    I HAVENT BACKED AND THINK IS THE BIGGEST DANGER – Black Apalachi

    AT A SMALL PRICE THAT I CANT SEE WINNING – Arbor Supreme

    Glad I got a couple right though obviously didn’t back them, doh! Really happy to see McCoy win and cheered him home all the way once I realised Hello Bud wasn’t going to stay, don’t feel bad about missing out on his horse as he never was appealed to me and Tony flip flopped between DPI and Can’t Buy Time and didn’t appear bullish about his chances at all this year talking down his chances in the press. Always thought BA would run a big race if he got round and just couldn’t see overhyped Arbor doing it at all didn’t actually notice him once until the BBC listed the fallers after the first circuit.

    I’ve always taken the view on this race of using a mix of both trends and race form reading. I feel being rigidly fixated to stats and trends isn’t helpful and definitely going back and backfitting existing systems to include this years winner just boggles the mind really!

    For me I agree with Whitearab/Pablo and a few others that have said that this race becomes less about a strict set of golden rules and more like trying to solve a normal Saturday handicap with traditional form reading every year. I think looking for experienced, stayers who can jump and have a touch of class is the route I’ll be following next year whether they fit particular systems or not. Either way its not an Ante-Post big betting race for me anymore went in a lot smaller this year than last and will continue reducing stakes next, actually have to agree with Bauer on that one, (shock horror) as its becoming harder to call each year, wasn’t at all confident going into it and that proved correct, I’ll stick to Cheltenham for my bigger Ante Post wagers from now on as it has always proved more consistently successful for me. National next year will prolly have a couple of small AP plays after weights and couple more in the week of the race when NRNB kicks in.

  8. maureen says:

    I agree, except it’s never going to be a normal handicap because of the compression of weights at the top end. I thought the handicapper had given Black Apalachi far too much weight, even though he was saying he had been quite lenient with him.I suppose you can’t encourage a better class of horse to run without making it possible for them to win. And there will always be the sort of enigmatic horse that won on Saturday that you don’t know which version of him is going to turn up. In retrospect, if Black Apalachi’s jumping had held up for the past few years we might have been looking at another Aintree legend [so much for me thinking he was tiring last year!]. Perhaps we are going back to the time when the National was a more important race than the Gold Cup. Who knows? The race has a life of it’s own…how fascinating is that…

  9. miinnehoma says:

    Ye of little faith, one blip on the weights and we should through the stats out the window. It wasn’t stats we needed this year it was a crystal ball that was required.

    Why would we pick an 11.05 horse with a possible 3Lb rise when 5 days ago the jockey, not just any jockey but AP didn’t even know and had to be told by the trainer which one to ride. What chance had we got.

    Stick with the stats, it will help to narrow down the field and take paracetamol for those gut feelings.

  10. whitearab says:

    I did comment that I did not think BA was tiring when he fell last year when you posted that one Maureen! But I agree with you on the weights. The compression makes life harder and horses that win around Aintree over the National fences, even at at distances well short of the National distance get clobbered. Black Apalachi and Vic Venturi were both harshly treated for winning the Becher. In BA’s case, he won the Becher by a long way in shocking ground and was then given a harsh rating. He unseated in the 2009 National and was then 17th of 19 in his only other run before the National weights came out (a hurdle race). And despite that his rating was 6lbs higher this year than last. All of this will only make finding the winner more difficult. Smith also said he would have raised BA and Vic Venturi again if he could and so it does not take a genius to work out what will be in the mind of trainers when preparing a charge they fancy for the National in future. That is why class and a real, tough handicapper profile is what I will focus on in the main next year. Recenet form will need looked at closely to see whether horses are genuinely losing it or protecting their handicap mark.

  11. Rascal says:

    The Scottish National – Saturday 17th April

    The Rascal has mainly focussed on the profiles of the last fifteen winners of the Scottish Grand National in determining his selection for 2010 but there are some deviations. At this early stage there are still plenty of entries likely to defect so The Rascal has based his assessment on the top 40 in betting.

    Age

    In the last fifteen years WILLSFORD (1995) has been the only twelve year old winner and, indeed, has been the only twelve year old to triumph in this race in the 44 renewals that The Rascal has access to.

    In the period from 1966 to the present day the age picture has looked like this:

    6 YEAR OLDS – 1 WINNER
    7 YEAR OLDS – 8 WINNERS
    8 YEAR OLDS – 13 WINNERS
    9 YEAR OLDS – 12 WINNERS
    10 YEAR OLDS – 6 WINNERS
    11 YEAR OLDS – 3 WINNERS
    12 YEAR OLDS – 1 WINNER

    It is perfectly sensible not to rule out any seven to ten year olds but the others that can potentially be ruled out here are FINE BY ME (11), HIMALAYAN TRAIL (11), HOLD THE PIN (11), IDLE TALK (11), LOTHIAN FALCON (11) and OUT THE BLACK (12). An eleven year old winner last year but history suggests it’s unlikely to be repeated.

    Weight

    6 winners have carried 11 stone 5 pounds or more to victory since 1966, including GREY ABBEY (11-12) in 2004 but The Rascal is looking for a winner with an official rating no less than 124 and with anything rated above 150 unlikely to run we’re left with HALCON GENELARDAIS, MIKO DE BEAUCHENE, RAZOR ROYALE, CHIEF DAN GEORGE, AIR FORCE ONE, GONE TO LUNCH, AURORAS ENCORE, MOBAASHER, MONTERO, NENUPHAR COLLONGES, THEATRICAL MOMENT, BALLYFOY, POKER DE SIVOLA, THAT’S RHYTHM, FABALU, GIDAM GIDAM, SELECTION BOX, LOCHAN LACHA, SUPERIOR WISDOM, CHIARO, MA YAHAB, MEANUS DANDY, DOM D’ORGEVAL, MERIGO, ACCORDING TO JOHN, PRESENT M’LORD, HUKA LODGE and LORUM LEADER.

    Season Runs

    Less than three season runs in preparation for this race would defy a fifteen year trend, eleven from fifteen had between four and six preparation races and The Rascal has made this his range to eliminate HALCON GENELARDAIS, RAZOR ROYALE, MONTERO, THAT’S RHYTHM, GIDAM GIDAM, SELECTION BOX, SUPERIOR WISDOM, CHIARO and LORUM LEADER leaving nineteen potential winners of the Scottish National. Namely MIKO DE BEAUCHENE, CHIEF DAN GEORGE, AIR FORCE ONE, GONE TO LUNCH, AURORAS ENCORE, MOBAASHER, NENUPHAR COLLONGES, THEATRICAL MOMENT, BALLYFOY, POKER DE SIVOLA, FABALU, LOCHAN LACHA, MA YAHAB, MEANUS DANDY, DOM D’ORGEVAL, MERIGO, ACCORDING TO JOHN, PRESENT M’LORD and HUKA LODGE.

    Career Wins

    All but one of the last fifteen winners had a minimum of four career victories to their name (n.b. TYPE OF RACE UNDEFINED) so MEANUS DANDY and PRESENT M’LORD can be dismissed.

    3 Mile + Wins

    JOES EDGE was the only recent winner of the Scottish National not to have previously registered a win over three miles. IRIS DE BALME and GINGEMBRE had only done so once and RYALUX twice while the remaining 11 of our 15-winners sample had previously scored three or more victories over the three mile distance. Clearly an advantage then so the best looking contenders in this regard are MIKO DE BEAUCHENE, CHIEF DAN GEORGE, AIR FORCE ONE, GONE TO LUNCH, MOBAASHER, NENUPHAR COLLONGES, BALLYFOY, FABALU, MERIGO, ACCORDING TO JOHN and HUKA LODGE this year.

    Strike Rate

    With such a difficult race to judge and with some healthy odds on offer it seems prudent to The Rascal to make his wager on the Scottish National an each-way bet. He’s therefore following entries with an attractive strike rate – after all, the previous fifteen winners of the Scottish National had all placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd in at least 40% of their chase runs.

    This rules out MIKO DE BEAUCHENE, ACCORDING TO JOHN and HUKA LODGE.

    Form in Big Fields

    All fifteen of the last Scottish National winners had previously registered at least a sixth place finish in a field of 16 horses or more. Failure a few from home then for BALLYFOY who does not meet this requirement.

    Form

    11 out of the last fifteen winners all had a season win going into the Scottish National and three of the remaining four had at least a top three place to show off about. NENUPHAR COLLONGE looks the least likely of the remainder then.

    The Shortlist

    Red marks are plastered across The Rascal’s spreadsheet but some have avoided the stain and these make up The Rascal’s Scottish National shortlist of 6:

    CHIEF DAN GEORGE
    AIR FORCE ONE
    GONE TO LUNCH
    MOBAASHE
    FABALU
    MERIGO

    Getting Brutal

    The Rascal is not prepared to back all six of his selections so it’s time to get even more brutal with the stats and narrow the field down further.

    The last 14 winners have all finished at least sixth in their most recent race – this would dismiss the chances of AIR FORCE ONE.

    Winners with an inadequate five to nine chase runs have all registered strike rates of 70% or better – this rules out FABALU.

    The final four all have a great chance of winning the Scottish National but The Rascal is going to plump for MERIGO who has winning form at Ayr and can return to winning form off his new chase mark.

    1st) MERIGO
    2nd) CHIEF DAN GEORGE
    3rd) MOBAASHE
    4th) GONE TO LUNCH

  12. Flagship says:

    I’ve always taken the view on this race of using a mix of both trends and race form reading. I feel being rigidly fixated to stats and trends isn’t helpful and definitely going back and backfitting existing systems to include this years winner just boggles the mind really!

    Couldn’t agree more Brody.

  13. Systemsman says:

    Flagship and your meathod for finding the winner was?, and the points you awarded DPI was??? No one gave DPI a single point other than on the first round so my meathod is certainly no worse than yours!which isnt saying a lot this year ofcourse)

    No one will be as critcal of the Black Book System as I am at the moment. I am examining every single last part of it and studying the results for the last 21 years to find any cracks. No it would be easy to be critical – could go on and on about the many who kept forcasting Heavy and Very Sft time after time thus diverting our attention onto Sft ground runners at a critical point but I’ll leave it there. I will post my own review when I have completed my work.

    On the 30/30 stat. Well I cant belive that some people are giving up up a stat that is still 30/31 without alteration that at least would help narrow down the field for some of your selections.

    Its a parady to suggest that those of use who use trends/stats slavishly follow them come what may – its just not true and our posts show that clearly. I for one did not back EG or TT who were in the trends list and BBS (Black Book System).

    Its a fact that most of the key trends/stats stand – you can use them to help your selections or not – the choice is yours but please dont knock those of use who do stand by them as a helping process. On this site alone the winner of the Irish National at a big price and Beecher Chase were found by using trends/stats (a wonderful piece of work by more than one person – well done) so a little more respect for trends/stats please.

  14. Rascal says:

    Very trends based, very unsubtle and very general but very happy with my final four.

  15. kj says:

    Crisp- thank god you’re alive!

    I looked back over archive that Neil found on the original GN 2010 page and GN 2010(2) yesterday.
    My main point is, CRISP WE NEED YOU, I NEED YOU… to bounce possibilities off, you will engage in unpopular but valid ideas, not talk mostly with just a select few unless engaging in an argument and take an objective view!!
    DPI passed the stats 100% according to your system but no key race and as I vaguely pointed to in a further post, had never really ran the shorter distances or the longest, speculating an undercover distance machine!
    but fancied about 12 all the way through this yr. never got beyond that, was near impossible!

    Crisp, you’ve done great work, you are flexible and you contribute as objectively as anyone could!
    By the way, I said this at the time, I choose COD by myself at the time, was also selected by influential(noisey) people, seem to remember Wacky banging on about this one actually after Eider, we must not get OTT after winning performances its easy to inflate their claims! just happened to be the right horse that time.

    Please, Crisp post your ‘meets the stats the year before’ list, its one of my favourites! and people please suggest horses you see aimed at this, future prospects Crisp may have missed.

    As you reposted above Crisp, you analysed DPI against the stats and posted the results at the time, in a side disscussion a few of us had, .. that then maybe should have as Neil suggested been put on a ‘facts!’ list of horses that qualify, stating what they miss slightly etc, this horse was under the radar as no key race thats all! exceptional performance notes or something.
    The idea this year of pages for some horses could have worked, Crisp you posted your simple profiling on top of most of those threads, for us to make of what we will, thank you, that should continue as was best way to keep objective and note pros and cons etc. horse by horse.
    I suffered from the sheep herding instinct again, I said I would, like all of us, me putting DPI top of my list, I stated then! was because I wanted to avoid this herding reality and vote for equally valid potential winners! Just picked the right horse again, put off by weight (went on to back weighted horses anyway) lack of interest, worry he was gonna run elsewhere- his price went out and stayed out until McCoy got on. I would then never have picked him in the end (unless I backed the 12!)

    WE LIVE AND LEARN, most important to remember is horses are crazy animals first! machines after ;)

    Crisp keep up the good work, Systemsman keep up the GOOD work! everyone else especially big contributers, old friends, independant thinkers, quiet wise voices, females! (that makes me sound like McCruick) the welsh but not the crazy russian!
    Come on we are a good team and we love this race.

  16. admin says:

    Hi everyone,

    Can we bring things to a close on this thread – getting too big!

    Two new threads opened to keep you busy!

    Thanks

  17. TC says:

    Crisp – great to have you back, wish i had a record of my posts, will be definitely be having a large notebook for next season!!

    :)

  18. Showlad says:

    Sensational News re Grand National Blog Team’s 2010 success!!!! TOTALLY TOTALLY OVERLOOKED.

    Hi Team have done some research on how our collective Top 12 from the GRAND NATIONAL 2010 TOP 6 TIPSTERS LEAGUE FINAL TABLE fared.

    We’ve obviously selected very well on Grand National type horses with only 50% of our Top 12 unseating, falling or being pulled up, whereas in the race as a whole 65% suffered that fate.

    Of the 6 of remaining horses from our Top 12 who were still standing – NOW GET THIS!!! – our 6 horses then filled 6 OF THE TOP 7 PLACES!!

    A quality non stats fitting horse ridden brilliantly by AP actually won, but as I’ve posted earlier – if we accept the classier line up now and effects of the weight compression does give other horses SO much more of a chance and that the best style of betting is each way – we would have returned 4 EACH WAY WINS on 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th.

    Incredibly bad luck that our TOP 12 predicted 6 OF THE TOP 7 PLACES but not the winner – BUT STILL INCREDIBLE GOING AND…WELL DONE TEAM ON A BRILLIANT OVERALL RESULT!!!!

    102 points Snowy Morning 26/35 OVERALL POINTS 300
    CAME 6TH
    94 points Arbor Supreme 24/35 OVERALL POINTS 252
    UR
    85 points Hello Bud 21/35 OVERALL POINTS 224
    CAME 5TH
    58 points Big Fella Thanks 14/35 OVERALL POINTS 130
    CAME 4TH
    49 points Eric’s Charm 16/35 OVERALL POINTS 122
    FELL
    48 points Niche Market 20/35 OVERALL POINTS 132
    PU
    47 points State Of Play 18/35 OVERALL POINTS 116
    CAME 3RD
    37 points Dream Alliance 11/35 OVERALL POINTS 123
    PU
    35 points Mon Mome 10/35 OVERALL POINTS 60
    FELL
    21 points Character Building 6/35 OVERALL POINTS 65
    CAME 7TH
    18 points Backstage 3/35 OVERALL POINTS 37
    UR
    17 points Black Apalachi 5/35 OVERALL POINTS 62
    CAME 2ND