Grand National Tips 2010 (10)

Please now use this thread for all your tips and comments on the Grand National 2010

With less than a fortnight to go to the Grand National we have started to see money coming in for a number of horses with the feature being the hardening of Big Fella Thanks at the head of the market and the sustained drop in price of Arbor Supreme.

The latter’s drop in price could have been instigated by a supposition that Tony McCoy was going to ride but this has turned out not to be the case with Paul Townend confirmed by Willie Mullins as the big race jockey earlier this week.

Subsequently there has been some support for Can’t Buy Time with punters second guessing that this means that McCoy will be on this one of the remaining three JP McManus owned horses left in the Grand National.

Personally, I think he may opt for Don’t Push It, a horse that has always been a challenge over fences and one who provided one of McCoy’s epic rides when winning the John Smiths Handicap at Aintree last year. The other option would be King Johns Castle and given that horses Aintree form perhaps a ride on him is not out of the question for the Champ either?

What if McCoy doesn’t really fancy the chances of any of these horses and gets offered an outside ride that he does fancy? Is it feasible he would be allowed to not ride for McManus?

Tell us what you think here.

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589 Responses to Grand National Tips 2010 (10)

  1. wacky says:

    Thanks TC.I follow ten year trends in the RACING POST and im confident that the horse they will highlight on the day will be……………..

  2. Neil S says:

    Cheers for that Croat Goat, yes it was! I think a male rider would have pulled cheers up. I think she was just out to prove a point. Luckily no harm came to the horse.

  3. wacky says:

    Has anyone seen that Sam twiston-davies has been given the ride on Hello Bud even thou he hasn’t managed to ride out his claim?

  4. heavyevvy says:

    re sam t d
    in football if a team plays an inelligable player they are disqualified.
    surely you are either qualified or not

  5. TC says:

    It’s pretty much been the plan for the past few months for Sam to get the ride on HB, they were hoping that they would allow him in with the Foxhunter victory

  6. Bri says:

    So wacky who is your mystery selection then?

  7. wacky says:

    Ive applied all the main trends 8-12yrs old,136-148 Official rating,Won £20,000 chase,Won over 3 miles,4-6 runs this season and run in the last 50 days.That left me with….SNOWY MORNING. We will wait another 100yrs for a french bred winner so back to winning ways!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  8. kj says:

    wacky you’ve not mentioned one horse you fancy yet! you cheeky mare ;)

  9. kj says:

    damn you beat me… I was thinkin of snow

  10. kj says:

    as for the 100yrs til next fr winner, in your dreams mate!

  11. wacky says:

    Well i’ll will be 147 if i do wait that long for it to happen again!!!!

  12. not1since2002 says:

    Isn’t there a slight worry about Dream Alliance and the number of times he’s pulled up?

  13. Bri says:

    Well wacky pretty pleased with you picking snowy as he is on my shortlist as well.

    Just need to get that list of 7 plus 2 down to 4.

    Think the top 2 take care of themselves when bottom weight rises by at least 1lb so down to 5 + 2 which is very manageable at this stage.

  14. Jay Trump says:

    Wacky – you asked about recent winners with less than 4 prep runs.

    Well he didn’t win but in 2007 Mckelvey had only 3 prep runs and came a 3/4l second.

    Taking nothing from Silver Birch but the history books may have been different if Mckelvey hadn’t finished lame. Of course if he’d had more runs he may not have finished lame but it’s something I’ve always thought about when applying the 4-6runs stat.

  15. Showlad says:

    Turftrax update (I think earlier comment that it was looking a bit better was looking at first report which is for Milmay cource, which isn’t so bad).
    Situ no better:
    Course Aintree (Grand National)
    Next Race Thursday 8th April
    Report Date Friday 2nd April; 1:30 pm
    Going Soft (Heavy in places canal turn & valentines)
    Going Stick 3.8 on Wednesday at 3pm

  16. Systemsman says:

    Post 518. Silly me in listing my Black Book selections I forgot to add Tricky Trickster who does have 3 stars with A+B. I make him 7th out of my nine selections but he is only a 7 year old as may end up on over 11.05 (not known yet)or more than 12lbs above bottom weight and he has only 3wins from 6 races. Now with only 6 races I cant see him as a GN winner this year – he was alo a Novice last season. Only 6 chase races and a Novice last season and aged 7 – it does just not add up as a winning profile does it?

    So Showlad as I value your opinion (and on the Euovision by the way – thanks for Germany)and we are in agreement on the whole about this years winner I will look once again at State of Play. I woud value your views on why he may win. The negatives stck out though as no run for so long and his form line reads P – what other GN winner had a P as his only result in GN winning year, but I am willing to be won over? (and I think the key 6 we support will do the job anyway).

  17. Matriarch says:

    Been looking at OR figures of the winners since 1999. Apart from Bobbyjo (he was raised 14lb from his last chase race) All the other winners since have either had the same OR from their previous chase race or have been raised, 1,2 or 3lb only. Not sure its a stat but interesting.

  18. Systemsman says:

    “wacky
    April 2nd, 2010 21:01

    Ive applied all the main trends 8-12yrs old,136-148 Official rating,Won £20,000 chase,Won over 3 miles,4-6 runs this season and run in the last 50 days.That left me with….SNOWY MORNING.”

    Wacky it should also have left you with A.Supreme (there I go again – wash my mouth out with soap and water)!

  19. PeterThePig says:

    Snowy Morning. If the race conditions are worse than soft the horses wit proven stamina to win beyond 28 furlongs would have a better chance IMHO.

    Has Snowy won 28 furlongs or further? 3rd GN 2 ears ago.

    Has Snowy won a chase with a large number of horses in it?

    If you had only 1 win bet, would it be on Snowy?

    I think he has a place chance, don’t get me wrong and a big weight pull with COD and has similarities to My Will who seems to be ignored on this blog.

    I gave Snowy 1 point last time as everyone else was convinced of a bold performance at the weight.

    The current odds of BFT @7-1 and Snowy @20-1 would seem to me to reflect their chances in that both horses not won over 28f or further and they are going to have similar weights to carry. BFT’s form is a little better and has RW as opposed to the better value offered by Snowy but is nearly 3 times as likely to win given the current market sentiment.

    Please do’t take this as criticism, I got ‘burnt’ along with many others on RM last year. We are all looking for a better outcome this year!

  20. Showlad says:

    Systemsman re Eurovision you’re welcome but the BIG tip still to come after GN and it’s a BIGGIE!

    Re State of Play. I’ll take brief overview of our great Top 6 overall scorers then come to him, my 7th selection and I think the winner is amongst them.

    Dream Alliance – heads a group of 3 that, in my opinion, is streets ahead (on evidence) of the rest of the field. He has a streak of brilliance that IF on display next Saturday will leave the rest of the field in his wake. Weight not great but now the at least soft ground will be right up his street.
    Hello Bud – another class act, brilliant jumper, aimed at the GN and holding something back for the Big Day – I would say yes. Proven stamina is aided by the best weight by far of my Fab 3.
    Niche Market – total class act and Irish winner. Would have run him at least 1 race less than he has been. Weight like Dream not great but he CANNOT be discounted.

    Now quite a gap to..
    Eric’s Charm – no brilliant Class 1 win, but he is in AMAZING form, great stamina, likes soft and if the weather sapping going needs guts, stamina and a bit of maturity he is ignored at your peril. A bit of bad luck for a classier act and he could be right in there.

    Now another gap to, as I see them, the best potential progressors in the list..
    Arbor Supreme – is first off here, as if he delivers I feel it will be more dynamic. I feel it’s an incredible showing for this boy or a no disgrace middle placing.
    Snowy Morning – then comes our perennial brides maid (well 3rd and 8th was it?). Sharpened over shorter distance workouts this year, a good weight and in the words of the song it’s now or never..

    OK now onto my 7th player:
    State of Play – Hennessy winner and a total class act. Hampered last year at Bechers and therefore a bad landing, regrouped for a good 4th, but up until that point jock was sure he was going to win. He is the NON STATS horse for sure. Very like Comply last year, who had a PU and 2 other unremarkable prep runs. Except State likes to run even FRESHER than Comply. Now this is a stats killer. But for me this is the nature of the beast and it is a gut instinct that he cannot be discounted (even with a poorer prep than last year). His PU explained by blood problem or something and is now going great guns again.
    Mon Mome could be there again but I see his 11-07 to 11-10 in the soft maybe being one lug too far.

  21. Neil S says:

    Showlad I take it your quite keen on State of Play. It won’t be the worst result for me, neither would it be the best, but good luck.

    You do know that P stand for pulled up and not pissed it. Sorry old joke;

    Guy reading a form guide and picks one with F’s and P’s in it’s form. Mate points this fact out and says it’s no chance.
    “Sure it has ain’t the F’s for first past post and the P’s for pissed it. ”

    Myself I think Dream Alliance, never sat easy with me this dismissed 11 stone and above thing, and the still a chance he’ll be within 12 pounds from bottom.

    I say that but financially Arbor Supreme is my number one.

  22. not1since2002 says:

    On the bright side.”PU” is better than “fell” and “dead”.

  23. mr frisk says:

    first of all long wait holding off see if arbor running, then weather changes and holding off to point off knowing better what going would likely be (my guess is soft with heavy patches) that brings up dillemma off older horse /lighter weight (with a side interest of who can be the one to find the 100/1 each way with bragging rights) lol oh what a quandery this year is !! ime getting a migraine think ille go down the P ulled up.U nseated rider, B rought down . ha ha :)

  24. not1since2002 says:

    Must say i was lucky to find this blog. I never knew ppl could go into such fascinating detail about a race. Luck in running should be examined in more detail though…hehe

  25. mr frisk says:

    well i have done all the calculations ,i have delved deep into the realms of quantam physics NOT1 and i have finally managed to eek out the conclusion !! EITHER YOU GET IT OR YOU DONT !! lol

  26. not1since2002 says:

    Mr frisk, I’m about to nod off but before i do i’ll give you one little tip..Air Force One will have undercarriage problems if he runs(flys)or takes a quantum leap. Just give me your top horse. I don’t want top 6 ok?..lol..nite

  27. wacky says:

    Arbor Supreme has only had 3 runs this season as the season starts from August!!So AS doesn’t fit the stats!!They have prices on the going at Aintree now so a winner to be had before the racing starts!!

  28. JJF says:

    Really enjoy all the views on here , and the banter is great . Just 2 questions if anyone can help ? I have several anti post bets on via Betfair and am wondering when do I need to lay my bets before the market is suspended and moves to the main page ? Thanks to all and can anyone put in their top 6 selections ?

  29. Neil S says:

    Not1since2002 can I just say not all falls are fatal.

  30. Neil S says:

    Haycock today going heavy. This gives us a measure for Aintree. Channel 4 says the forecast is for it to dry out towards next weekend.

  31. andy says:

    Tony McCoy is leaning towards riding Don’t Push It in the John Smith’s Grand National.

    The 14-times champion had been considered likely to partner Can’t Buy Time in next Saturday’s Aintree feature, but current ground conditions have forced a rethink.

    Don’t Push It and Can’t Buy Time are both trained by Jonjo O’Neill and owned by JP McManus.

    “There’s no pressure to make a final decision until nearer the time, but having originally been pencilled in for Can’t Buy Time, I now find myself leaning towards Don’t Push It,” McCoy told the Daily Telegraph.

    “You can forgive Can’t Buy Time his run in the race last year – he eventually fell at the 18th – because he went there on the back of a hard race in the four-mile chase at Cheltenham, but there is a slight question mark about his stamina and he definitely wouldn’t want the ground too soft.

    “To my mind, Don’t Push It has a bit of class and ability, and he’d be fine on that ground.

    “That is my thinking at the moment, and I reserve the right to change my mind several more times!”

  32. admin says:

    Hi everyone,

    Please things to a close on this thread now and start using the new main thread I have just opened.

    Thanks

  33. notelppa says:

    JJF: Ante-Post market closes Thursday so lay anythjng off by then but I’d suggest not leaving it late as there’s very little activity late on as I found out in 2008.

  34. grekko says:

    I don’t know if this helps but, I noticed that in the last 3 GN which were heavy going (1994-2009 ) ,each of the placed horses(except Blowing Wind in 2001) had previous Chase wins at 3m or 3m+ in soft or heavy going:

    2001 : Red Marauder
    2:Smarty (1 3mch)
    3:——-BW——
    4:Papillion (1Sft) 1GN

    1998 :Earth Summit
    2:Suny Bay (4 sft)
    3:Samlee (1 sft)
    4:St Melion Fairway (2sft) (1 hvy)

    1994: Minnehoma
    2:Just So (1 sft) (1 hvy)
    3:Moorcroft Boy (2sft) (1 hvy)
    4:bony Jane (2 sft) (1 hvy)

    Could that be a pointer to this years GN?

  35. grekko says:

    #584
    grekko
    April 3rd, 2010 18:57

    I don’t know if this helps but, I noticed that in the last 3 GN which were heavy going (1994-2009 ) ,each of the placed horses(except Blowing Wind in 2001) had previous Chase wins at 3m or 3m+ in soft or heavy going:

    2001 : Red Marauder
    2:Smarty (1 sft)
    3:——-BW——
    4:Papillion (1 sft) 1GN

    1998 :Earth Summit
    2:Suny Bay (4 sft)
    3:Samlee (1 sft)
    4:St Melion Fairway (2sft) (1 hvy)

    1994: Minnehoma
    2:Just So (1 sft) (1 hvy)
    3:Moorcroft Boy (2sft) (1 hvy)
    4:bony Jane (2 sft) (1 hvy)

    Could that be a pointer to this years GN?

  36. flockhartx says:

    hey peeps first time on this site some very interesting reading. I have come up with a few your points of view would be of interest top 5
    big fellow thanks
    snowy morning
    arbor supreme
    comply or die
    mon mome

    i am going to try a tricast so i think my first 3 and maybe a slight rotation. anyone got any views please

  37. Muppet1976 says:

    Hi I was just interested in a comment made by Pablo about how many Ibs above bottom weight the winner was weighted ,well could it be expanded to mention the going on the day of the race as it may be of interest to see what ground conditions were and the difference in the weight,just a thought.I am absolutley hooked on this site since finding it last year and the racing knowledge is astounding.
    Keep up the good work.

  38. scooby says:

    3 against the field. Big fella thanks (no thanks at the price) snowy morning and character building. The last named is primed to win. Enough said all you doubters. I am as sure as when I won on silver birch and took 40/1.

  39. soulboy says:

    i must agree with scooby. character building has a real chance and is a great ew bet. my free £25 coral bet, (win only), that i won at cheltenham will be gan rite on cb’s nose. good luck all.