Comments on: Grand National Prep Races: The Welsh National

By: crisp 73

crisp 73 — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 11:39:19 +0000

Correction to previous post 11/12 won/placed at 25f or more C1 chase. Kendal Cavalier hadn’t but had won at 33f and had a win s/r, 31%, and win/place s/r, 62%.

By: crisp 73

crisp 73 — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 17:20:29 +0000

Well done all that backed Dream Alliance. Trends/stats that I used updated;
15/16 won/placed at 25f or more in a C1 chase
15/16 won 2 or more chases
14/16 ran in less than 20 chases
14/16 had a 50% or more win/place chase s/r
14/16 had a 20% or more win chase s/r
13/16 had won 1 of their last 6 chases
(All exceptions had finished in the top4 in previous Welsh Nat except Miko De Beauchene who’d only won 1 chase but had only ran in 4)
Dream Alliance ticked all the boxes and even had a 5th or better LTO, the fact it was in a hurdle race put me off! Didn’t think he’d had anything near the required preparation for such a gruelling race. Remarkable.

By: kj

kj — Mon, 28 Dec 2009 14:47:05 +0000

well done matriarch, I went for Coe but not your other top pick dream aLLiance, and it had the double letters latest mystery factor went for a bigger outsider in cornish seTT instead. What a comeback from injury, you really had some faith there, well done again!

By: Matriarch

Matriarch — Mon, 28 Dec 2009 14:38:05 +0000

Coe hit the last hard but DREAM ALLIANCE did the biz for me..I mentioned Dream Alliance about a page back and took the 33′s. This horse was runnin off 142 and was second to Denman when last on 142 and was 6lb well in today I think, ran really well and back to his best….33/1 for GN. Think Coe would’ve placed but smashed into last fence.

By: Showlad

Showlad — Mon, 28 Dec 2009 13:57:53 +0000

OK gonna call it.
For me it’s Flintoff. With Coe, Hello Bud and GTL making up my 4 selections. Cornish great place value.

By: crisp 73

crisp 73 — Mon, 28 Dec 2009 13:22:17 +0000

Correction to previous post, Comply Or Die- pulled up in Welsh National, so that’s 14/33,9/20 GN winners ran in Welsh Nat.

By: Neil S

Neil S — Mon, 28 Dec 2009 11:50:47 +0000

Today’s meeting goes ahead, after 4 inspections. Hurrah!!!

By: TC

TC — Mon, 28 Dec 2009 11:38:54 +0000

My main bet on the race is Coe, but i’ve got savers on GTL. Also MdB only just misses out on the stats.

Just trying to assess the race without the trends. Coe and KK should have the better of LBB based on the Cheltenham 4-miler, the race before MdB at Haydock finished just behind Coe and should be better off on the weights this time around. Based on the hennessy GTL should comfortably have the beating of KK. Having said all that HG is 7lb better off this time around and should go close again. looks a tricky race but i’m going to stick with Coe who should relish the stamina test

By: Neil S

Neil S — Mon, 28 Dec 2009 10:20:48 +0000

Thanks for confirming my stats crisp (see grand national tips 2010 [2] ) I thought that generally this is the most important trial race ran before Main event in april. However I still think this season that honour will go to the Hennessy.

By: crisp 73

crisp 73 — Mon, 28 Dec 2009 09:46:29 +0000

A third inspection at 10.30.
If it goes ahead Le Beau Bai and Gone To Lunch are the picks on the stats I’m using followed by Kornati Kid and Nozic. A big negative for me concerning Coe is that he has an 11% win strike rate (only Riverside Boy,18%, and L’Aventure,16%, had a win s/r less than 20% in last 15 runnings and they’d already had a top4 Welsh Nat finish)and the fact he’s only won 1 chase( 12/15 had won 3 or more, 14/15 had won 2 or more, Miko De Beauchene only won 1 chase but he’d only ran in 4).

I make it that 13/33, 8/20 GN winners ran on the Welsh Nat.
(*same season)
*Rag Trade- 1st, Rubstic- pulled up, *Corbiere-1st, West Tip- unplaced, *Rhyme N Reason- 2nd, Little Polveir- unplaced, *Party Politics- 2nd, Miinnehoma- 3rd, *Earth Summit- 1st, *Bindaree- 3rd, Hedgehunter- 3rd, Silver Birch- 1st, Mon Mome- 2nd.