Grand National Prep Races: The Welsh National

The early entries for the Welsh National has recently been released so even though the race is still just under a month away I thought it would be good to get a page up and running.
The significance of the Chepstow race in terms of who wins the Grand National at Aintree cannot be underestimated – full details of the Welsh National’s relationship with the Grand National are detailed on one of Grand National Guide’s other pages:

The 2009 running looks certain to continue in this vein with a whole host of National prospects lined up to run in Wales. Mon Mome is the highest rated horse in the race and if he or 2006 winner Halcon Genelardais take up their place then horses rated 130 or below will be looking at running from out of the handicap. Here are some of the other notable Welsh National entries who could end up also being a Grand National runner:

My Will
Don’t Push It
The Tother One
Gone To Lunch
Niche Market
Dream Alliance
Hello Bud
Beat The Boys
Irish Raptor
Old Benny
Morgan Be
Our Monty
Parsons Pistol
Silver Birch
Southern Vic
Arbor Supreme

If we end up with 33% of these running at Chepstow we are in for a super race with the current English, Irish and Scottish National winners entered as well as two former Welsh National winners in the aforementioned Halcon Genelardais and Miko De Beauchene.

I have had Flintoff in mind for this race for some time and whilst I am a big fan of Venetia Williams I’m quite encouraged that he has made the move to Tim Vaughan’s stable. The way this young trainer seems to improve horses who have been racing elsewhere is becoming very well known and I feel Flintoff would not be far away on some of his old form for Miss Williams so if Vaughan can eek out a few extra pounds of improvement then Flintoff must have a big chance.

I shall be making my first visit to Chepstow for the Welsh National this year and as it’s one of my favourite races of the year I’m really looking forward to it – I’m hoping Flintoff can help pay for some of the expenses!

Flintoff has been opened up a best price of 20/1 with Stan James and could well repay each-way support

Who do you fancy for the Welsh National and do you think any of the potential runners can emulate Mon Mome and go on to Aintree and win the Grand National 2010?

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59 Responses to Grand National Prep Races: The Welsh National

  1. Neil S says:

    Thanks for confirming my stats crisp (see grand national tips 2010 [2] ) I thought that generally this is the most important trial race ran before Main event in april. However I still think this season that honour will go to the Hennessy.

  2. TC says:

    My main bet on the race is Coe, but i’ve got savers on GTL. Also MdB only just misses out on the stats.

    Just trying to assess the race without the trends. Coe and KK should have the better of LBB based on the Cheltenham 4-miler, the race before MdB at Haydock finished just behind Coe and should be better off on the weights this time around. Based on the hennessy GTL should comfortably have the beating of KK. Having said all that HG is 7lb better off this time around and should go close again. looks a tricky race but i’m going to stick with Coe who should relish the stamina test

  3. Neil S says:

    Today’s meeting goes ahead, after 4 inspections. Hurrah!!!

  4. crisp 73 says:

    Correction to previous post, Comply Or Die- pulled up in Welsh National, so that’s 14/33,9/20 GN winners ran in Welsh Nat.

  5. Showlad says:

    OK gonna call it.
    For me it’s Flintoff. With Coe, Hello Bud and GTL making up my 4 selections. Cornish great place value.

  6. Matriarch says:

    Coe hit the last hard but DREAM ALLIANCE did the biz for me..I mentioned Dream Alliance about a page back and took the 33′s. This horse was runnin off 142 and was second to Denman when last on 142 and was 6lb well in today I think, ran really well and back to his best….33/1 for GN. Think Coe would’ve placed but smashed into last fence.

  7. kj says:

    well done matriarch, I went for Coe but not your other top pick dream aLLiance, and it had the double letters latest mystery factor ;) went for a bigger outsider in cornish seTT instead. What a comeback from injury, you really had some faith there, well done again!

  8. crisp 73 says:

    Well done all that backed Dream Alliance. Trends/stats that I used updated;
    15/16 won/placed at 25f or more in a C1 chase
    15/16 won 2 or more chases
    14/16 ran in less than 20 chases
    14/16 had a 50% or more win/place chase s/r
    14/16 had a 20% or more win chase s/r
    13/16 had won 1 of their last 6 chases
    (All exceptions had finished in the top4 in previous Welsh Nat except Miko De Beauchene who’d only won 1 chase but had only ran in 4)
    Dream Alliance ticked all the boxes and even had a 5th or better LTO, the fact it was in a hurdle race put me off! Didn’t think he’d had anything near the required preparation for such a gruelling race. Remarkable.

  9. crisp 73 says:

    Correction to previous post 11/12 won/placed at 25f or more C1 chase. Kendal Cavalier hadn’t but had won at 33f and had a win s/r, 31%, and win/place s/r, 62%.