Grand National Prep Races: The Becher Chase
The declarations for the Becher Chase have been announced and the field sees a good mix of familiar faces and interesting newcomers set to face the Grand National fences.
2007 National winner Silver Birch takes his place in the field along with other Aintree favourites such as Parsons Legacy, Can’t Buy Time, Irish Raptor and State Of Play.
Newcomers that catch the eye are Scottish National winner Hello Bud, Howard Johnson’s inexperienced but talented chaser Companero and Irish raider Vic Venturi.
Paul Nicholls has won three of the last five runnings of the Becher Chase and has two entries at this stage – Hoo Loo Baloo and Nozic.
Also, on the card on Sunday is the Grand Sefton Chase which also takes place over the Grand National fences. This race tends to have less of a long term effect on the Grand National itself due to being run over a shorter distance, but there are still some interesting runners entered with Idle Talk, One Cool Cookie and Always Waining gaining entries here and in the Becher and the likes of Brooklyn Brownie, Bible Lord and Private Be also due to line up in the Sefton.
However, the most intriguing entrant is probably the enigmatic Seven Is My Number form the David Pipe yard. The David Johnson owned gelding has looked to have his fair share of temperament in the past but the Pond House team have done well to win three chases with him this year and it will be very interesting to see how he takes to the National fences.
Who do you fancy in the Becher Chase and the Grand Sefton and can the winners of these races go on to further success in the Grand National 2010?
This post has 64 comments
#1
November 17th, 2009 12:20
Couple of interesting entries at this stage including VIC VENTURI and PALYPSO DE CREEK. The former is trained by Dessie Hughes and does have quite a similar profile as Black Apalchi before his Becher win in that he’s been slogging it out in the top 3m handicap chases in Ireland and normally runs well without actually winning. The trip might be a bit of an unkown but he jumpes well and seems to cope with any kind of ground.
Palypso De Creek is a 6yo French import in the care of Charlie Longsdon. He’s been brought by Alan Halsell as a National prospect and he has had runners in the race in the past (Wonder Weasel and Longshanks). If he wins this it will ruin his handicap mark but he’s jumped around Auteil, has won on heavy ground and won a 3m novice hurdle at Towcester the other day. He could go well in this.
HOO LA BALOO is also quite interesting. He’s got loads of ability and in terms of his OR he’s paid the price for running good races over 2m in his younger days against horse like VPU and Dempsey. His highest rating was 158 but he’s slipped down to 141 now so looks handicapped to win a decent prize at some stage (has won off 145). He’s a bold jumper so I think he could take to the fences but my worry is that his one win over 3m was in a militay race. He won it under the huge burden of 12-10 but he was simply in a different class to his rivals so his class rather than stamina saw him through. He’s had quite a few chances at 3m+ since without suceess and I think he’s probably more suited to 2m4f-2m5f Somwething like the Topham would probably be up his street. The Becher may stretch his stamina too far but if Ruby is on board there’s no-one better to help in that department.
#2
November 17th, 2009 18:01
a few stats
13/17 ran in the last 22 days, 7 of those ran 21 days ago
three that didnt ran over the national fences in their last run and were having their first run of the season. the other was Eurotrek who hadnt raced for 9 months
15/17 finished top 5 LTO the other 2 were Pulled up (Black Apalachi and Eurotrek)
14/17 had 10+ chase runs (3 that didnt wre trained by Paul Nicholls)
14/17 had won a Class 1-2 chase over 24f+ (2 that Hadnt were trained by P. Nicholls and the other was Amberleigh House)
any other to add?
#3
November 17th, 2009 23:53
Two for me at this stage:
Offshore Account has lots going for him at the weights and impressed me with the way he jumped and travelled for most of the GN until weakening near the end – also it will help to be ridden fairly prominently on the likely soft ground
Pak Jack looks best of the outsiders
#4
November 18th, 2009 09:06
Thought State of Play was being campaigned over hurdles this year?
#5
November 18th, 2009 12:31
I see that twenty four are declared at this moment and top rated on 169 adjusted RPR is A New Story
#6
November 18th, 2009 22:54
Just thought I add a bit of detail to TC’s excellent stats.
THE BECHER’s CHASE STATS
2008 (Winner:0F2-P Black Apalachi)(Age 9)(Weight 10-5)(ADJ RPR 138(Top-10))(SP 15/2)(Going: Heavy)(Best RPR in last 12 months and races since: 2nd PUNC HANC 30f (1))(Style of running from the front.)
2007 (Winner:122-4 Mr Pointment)(Age 8)(Weight 11-5)(ADJ RPR 146 (Top-4))(SP 15/2)(Going: Good to Soft)(Best RPR in last 12 months and races since: 4th CHEL HANC (class 2) 24.5f (0))(Style of running from the front.)
2006 (Winner:411P- Eurotrek)(Age 10)(Weight 11-7)(ADJ RPR 147 (Top-4))(SP 25/1)(Going: Good)(Best RPR in last 12 months and races since: won classic 29f (1))(Style of running close to pace.)
2005 (Winner:00765 Garvivonnian)(Age 10)(Weight 10-4)(ADJ RPR 130 (Top-3))(SP 33/1)(Going: Good to Soft)(Best RPR in last 12 months and races since: 3rd FAIR GD 3 CH 25f (4))(style of running close to pace.)
2004 (Winner:24P-1 Silver Birch)(Age 7)(Weight 10-1(1oh)(1ow))(ADJ RPR 123 (Top-5))(SP 4/1F)(Going: Soft)(Best RPR in last 12 months and races since: 2nd WINC NOVC(class 3) 25.5f (3))(Style of running from the front.)
2003 (Winner: 1411- Clan Royal)(Age 8)(Weight 10-12)(ADJ RPR 126 (Top-6))(SP 11/2)(Going: Good)(Best RPR in last 12 months and races since: Won Topham HANC 21.5f (0))(Style of running held up.)
2002 (Winner: -1332 Ardent Scout)(Age 10)(Weight 9-11 (6oh))(ADJ RPR 123 (Top-12))(SP 14/1)(Going: Good to Soft)(Best RPR in last 12 months and races since: 3rd HAYD HANC (class 3) 24f (7))(Style of running close to pace.)
2001 (Winner: PB-52 Amberleigh House)(Age 9)(Weight 10-9)(ADJ RPR 121 (Top-12))(SP 33/1)(Going: Soft)(Best RPR in last 12 months and races since: 2nd HAYD HANC (class 3) 16f (0))(style of running held up.)
2000 (Winner: F3P-3 Young Kenny)(Age 9)(Weight 12-0)(ADJ RPR 144 (TOP))(SP 9/4F)(Going: Soft)(Best RPR in last 12 months and races since: 3rd Scot NAT 33f (2))(Style of running close to pace.)
1999 (Winner: P345- Feels Like Gold)(Age 11)(Weight 10-0(5oh))(ADJ RPR 126 (Top-3))(SP 9/1)(Going: Good)(Best RPR in last 12 months and races since: 5th Grand National 36f (0))(Style of running close to pace.)
#7
November 18th, 2009 23:01
Stat 1: Four of the last five winners were making their debuts over fences.
Stat 2: Seven of the last ten winners had raced at least 13 times over fences.
Stat 3: Only 3 of the last ten winners had not won over at least 24f (3 miles.)
Stat 4: You want something that runs in a handy position.(According to Ben’s Book.)
#8
November 18th, 2009 23:08
Like Offshore Account but wondering why he is entered in this
He handles the track – completed last year in GN and runs off 141 I think – should he win he will get +7lb or so plus the Aintree factor for the GN – makes no sense – unless he is ridden “for the experience” or to get fit
Soon after last year’s GN Charlie Swan was saying that he was looking forward to campaigning the horse for a full season (only one hurdles prep before last GN)
Puts me off backing him unless connections think he won’t stay the trip
Just look what happened to Black Apalachi’s mark last season
#9
November 18th, 2009 23:10
Meant won’t stay the GN trip not the shorter Becher trip!
#10
November 18th, 2009 23:18
Very interesting point about best RPR in past 12 months Neil – very significant factor for GN too, especially > 5 lb better than OR
#11
November 18th, 2009 23:19
Will investigate further…
#12
November 18th, 2009 23:41
The stats would suggest Keenan’s future as the likely winner. Is he a horse that likes to ride out in front though?
#13
November 19th, 2009 00:01
My racing paper suggest Hello Bud and I must admit his style of running is at the front. Both in the scottish national and in last weeks Paddy Power.
#14
November 19th, 2009 00:08
i’d be surprised if Hello Bud ran to be honest after last weekend. He would look a likely winner though if he ran.cI hope he doesn’t as he’ll be clobbered by he handicapper in April if he wins
#15
November 19th, 2009 00:09
The abbreviations used by the way course first 4 letters. Hanc = Handicap Chase. Novc = Novice Chase. For hurdles replace H for C. Used to have computer program years ago which used same abbreviations.
#16
November 19th, 2009 00:27
Agree TC a lot would depend on how HB came out of last week’s run. As for the national the running style might be a clue as to why the winner of this as rarely gone on to win the national, but those who finish well and jump well could be worth noting!
#17
November 19th, 2009 19:33
Speed to stamina ratio of Becher winners on good to soft or softer
(except Garvivonnian who had less than 10 dosage points)
Black Apalachi 43-57
Mr Pointment 31-69
Silver Birch 20-80
Ardent Scout 8-92
Amberleigh House 50-50
Young Kenny 25-75
Earth Summit 53-47
Samlee 20-80
Kildimo 21-79
If it is good to soft or softer on Sunday these figures would suggest a negative for Hello Bud 65-35 and Hoo La Baloo 68-32, amongst others.
Keenan’s Future 53-47. Agree with you ‘TC’ this could be the one to beat according to stats.
Nozic is also entered in Betfair chase on Saturday. If he runs there will there be a 6lbs weights rise in the Becher?
Royal Rosa – does anybody know when it achieved it’s top RPR 140?
#18
November 19th, 2009 19:48
I expect Nicholls will declare Nozic for this as well. I think it’s the case that once the final decs are in, if the top weight is a non-runner the weights do not rise. I remember Nicholls coming under fire for doing this at Cheltenham a few seasons ago. He declared the very highly rated Rigmarole for the County Hurdle and the horse was due to carry top weight. Because he was rated so highly, a lot of horses were due to run from out of the handicap. He ran in the Champion Hurdle instead and was a late non-runner in the County. The weights didn’t rise and the new top weight, Sporazene, trained by Paul Nicholls won a race where only around half a dozen horses ran from inside the handicap.
Is he going to try something similar here to keep the weight down for Hoo La Baloo?
#19
November 19th, 2009 22:26
Is Hoo La Baloo good enough? I’ll be disappointed if he is – can’t see him doing anything in the GN myself – but you never know…
#20
November 20th, 2009 00:27
A lot of bets already placed on A New Story who would have a decent profile for the national if he were to win the becher. he also comes out pretty well on the stats
#21
November 20th, 2009 09:18
A New Story ran in a 3m4f race last Sunday so must be a doubtful runner this weekend.
#22
November 20th, 2009 09:38
he’s got the most bets on him by far according to the RP, i’ll wait for decs before backing anything i think
#23
November 20th, 2009 09:48
TC,
Maybe other punters know something we don’t! Even if he does run, a 3m4f slog in heavy ground just 7 days before the race wouldn’t seem like a great prep to me.
#24
November 20th, 2009 10:01
What are your guy’s thoughts on State Of Play?
Seems an odd move from connections as he must have a decent chance in the Becher but by winning on Sunday he would surely scupper himself handicap wise for the big one?
Companero will love soft ground but may lack experience.
#25
November 20th, 2009 10:16
Every Becher winner, bar Black Apalachi who had won 1 of his last 17 chases, had won 1 of their last 10 chases.
#26
November 20th, 2009 10:20
A New Story was well backed last year for the race having come 3rd in the same race last time out (Cork National). Last year he travelled quite nicely before falling when trying to get into contention – although there’s no way he would have troubled the winner.
He is thoroughly exposed and again it would be disappointing if he were good enough – hasn’t won for 4 years. Might run into a place though but I’d rather have no bet on the race than side with ANS.
#27
November 20th, 2009 10:21
Ben,
This is what I read on the RP site a few days ago:
“EVAN WILLIAMS is contemplating a crack at the £100,000 ‘Fixed Brush’ Handicap Hurdle at Haydock on Saturday for last season’s John Smith’s Grand National fourth State Of Play.
Williams has also put the Hennessy and Charlie Hall Chase winner in the Totesport.com Becher Chase at Aintree on Sunday but, if he has his way, he will go down the hurdles route.
“I would have liked to have gone straight back to the National without another run,” said Williams, “but realistically, he’ll probably run at the weekend, or failing that wait for the Hennessy. It makes sense to look at the hurdling options with a view to protecting his chase rating.”
Interesting that Williams favoured the hurdle race to protect SOP’s chase mark but the horse has not been declared for it. Looks like the owners have had their way and he will either run in the Becher or the Hennessy.
#28
November 20th, 2009 10:23
Pablo,
A New Story did run in the Cork National last year but the race was 2 weeks earlier.
#29
November 20th, 2009 10:40
Doesn’t look good. Just looked at Oddschecker and SkyBet and Betfair are only quoting 8 horses:
Vic Venturi
Irish Raptor
Palypso De Creek
Hello Bud
Keenans Future
Idle Talk
Royal Rosa
Cleni Boy
If these are indeed the final decs then it’s a massively disappointing turnout.
#30
November 20th, 2009 10:49
No bet if that’s the case & watch it for GN pointers. Glad I haven’t bet on the race – really dangerous playing before final decs at the moment, GN aside.
#31
November 20th, 2009 10:50
Definitely only 8 runners, 2 of which look like running from out of the handicap. What a shite turnout for a £100k race.
#32
November 20th, 2009 11:06
Very Very disappointing!
Field sizes have been decent in recent years for this race but 8 runners is a poor show. Might only get a couple of finishers!!
#33
November 20th, 2009 11:27
I think my friend Mr Smith needs to take some of the credit for ruining this particular renewal.
#34
November 20th, 2009 11:47
Totally agree Pablo. This race used to be a good race for trainers to have a go at with would-be National candidates. I don’t blame trainers or owners with National aspirations for not sending their horses to this race anymore. Phil Smith crucifies any horse that wins it and effectively ruins their chance in a National. Paul Nicholls learned this with Eurotrek and Mr Pointment and he doesn’t have a runner this year. What other £100k staying handicap chase run this season can you see Paul Nicholls not having at least one runner in?
#35
November 20th, 2009 16:07
It looks as if Hello Bud is a definite runner then and Paddy Brennan is on board. I assume he’s come out of his race at Cheltenham well. Think i will be backing him, and keeping a keen eye on Keenan’s future. Hope Hello Bud doesnt ruin his mark too much though
#36
November 20th, 2009 16:14
Maybe Phil Smith will go easy this time around though, with only 8 runners declared as a way of encouraging more runners next time
I’m fully expecting Hello Bud’s price to completely go after Sunday’s race
#37
November 20th, 2009 16:27
Not done any workings out, but HB will probably set off in the lead. A style of running which seems to suit this race, but not the National. Enjoy this race but I can see no reference for the national itself.
#38
November 20th, 2009 16:39
would you not back a prominent/front runner for the national then? i certainly would rather back one than a horse sat in midfield trying to avoid all the calamities.
If Hello Bud has recovered from last week i fully expect him to win especially with him being the yard’s 1st choice
#39
November 20th, 2009 18:07
I rather back a smart one like rummy he dodged any fallers.
When Amberleigh House won I back five or six horses that year (All Ante Post) and one of the horses was Hedgehunter. Felt a bit anxious as he jumped on suffrance because he was being pressed on both sides. I kept urging on Hedgehunter even though I knew he wouldn’t last home (that year). He fell at the last with a fall through tiredness. Lucky for me AH came to my rescue and pipped Clan Royal.
I also like to hear one of my horses mentioned but if it’s doing too much in the early stages I think can it last home. To my knowledge only one horse has led very nearly from start to finish and that’s Lord Gyllene.
Starting last is no disadvantage anyway in 1988 Rhyme n’ Reason jumped the first fence last and crept up the field to win. Didn’t back it myself but I always remember it.
#40
November 20th, 2009 18:25
most winners in recent years are usually in the front 10-15 all the way and as i said i’d rather have them there than dodging all the fallers
#41
November 20th, 2009 20:33
The Becher’s race looks very close to me, but after studing it (with the aid of Ben’s Book and Timeform) my decision is just with Vic Venturi another horse who likes to make the running.
Wonder if Vic Venturi & Hello Bud (who according to TF only a pound between them) would cut each others throats and set the race up for a hold up horse like Keenan’s future or Royal Rosa.
For me it doesn’t look worth it to split my stakes so risking it on Vic Venture.
Good Luck to all those having a bet in this, not one to get involve with heavily though.
#42
November 20th, 2009 20:56
Is anyone having a serious bet in this. Really considering a large bet on Hello Bud, and am not too bothered that he only race last saturday. He won twice in a week last November and only had 9 day off before the Scot national
#43
November 20th, 2009 21:25
TC – no bet from me but Hello Bud would probably be my choice – could run them into the ground like BA did last year – Palypso De Creek could be the fly in the ointment.
Offshore Account would have been my bet if he’d run given that State Of Play (if he’d run) was supposed to be a bit tubby accoring to trainer. At least Hello Bud is clearly in reasonable form and fit.
Mind you Vic Venturi is not the first Old Vic to have improved fitted with headgear – BA and COD spring immediately to mind.
Therefore NO BET!!
#44
November 20th, 2009 22:05
No one has mentioned Irish Raptor who everyone seemed keen on in the scottish national before Hello Bud became the centre of attention. Although timeform gives him a x for dodgy jumping.
#45
November 22nd, 2009 10:29
I can’t see much reason to oppose Hello Bud and he has been heavily backed this morning
This could be the day that Always Waining goe close also after disappoinying at Ascot, he finished 4th in the topham last year off a mark of 140, and he is now 133 and looks a very big price
#46
November 22nd, 2009 11:09
I think Hello Bud will be hard to beat in The Becher but think the price is a bit short now at 7/2.
I’ll be looking at the Bowen horses in the Sefton – he has a great record around Aintree and his two here look overpriced, although Always Waining’s price seems to be going.
#47
November 22nd, 2009 11:50
Hello Buds profile looks good for this years GN so we dont want his OR going up too much (spot on at 142 today) if he wins. A second or third would do!
#48
November 22nd, 2009 11:59
“TC says:
November 20, 2009 at 6:25 PM
most winners in recent years are usually in the front 10-15 all the way and as i said i’d rather have them there than dodging all the fallers”
TC I agree 100% – rather have a front runner (or towards the front) with the right credential than one at the back! A front runner can win the National – any more views on this (remember those that said a French horse could not win or one with blinkers!!)? Perhaps we should continue tis dicsusion on front runners on the main GN thred as its very interesting.
Come on Hello Bud a good 2rd/3rd please (and not too close to the winner).
#49
November 22nd, 2009 12:31
Pak Jack for me in G Sefton – saver on Craiglands
#50
November 22nd, 2009 14:05
Vic Venturi won well but in my opinion jumped a little slow at times and with upto 39 other runners in the National could struggle.
Hello Bud could develop into a national horse, he stays (4 miles
Scottish National), he jumps the fences well, he have a feather weight (I hope), the only negative is he likes to make the running.
If he can settle just off the pace I would seriously think about backing him for the big one in April (each way of course.)
#51
November 22nd, 2009 14:15
Another one for the Dosage Figures Neil! 7-1 sp, thank you very much!
I’m with you, his jumping was slow on more than one occasion and with more runners and more fences to get in the way come April I don’t think the National will be ideal.
Likely to get a large enough weight as well.
#52
November 22nd, 2009 14:32
Ben did you have it yourself, sorry TC about Hello Bud.
#53
November 22nd, 2009 14:40
Interesting to see what the handicapper does this year with Vic Venturi
Apart from the weight he has plenty of experience in big fields in Ireland, has never fallen, goes on any ground and seems to be better with headgear
Not a forlorn hope by any means but won’t be backing him in a hurry
Hello Bud completed the course which is a big plus and has run better on better ground so it’s too soon to write him off I think
#54
November 22nd, 2009 14:51
Glad i didnt fully commit to putting too much on Hello Bud, i think he jumped well and the trip was clearly too short for him. I still think he has a big national chance and will still be lowly weighted come april
Vic Venturi will surely be weighted out of the national now. Was very impressed with Keenan’s futures’ run and he definitely looks one for the national as it looked as if he wanted further
#55
November 22nd, 2009 14:56
I did Neil, backed it at 5-1 with Pad Pow but they give best price guaranteed so got the 7-1! My other bet of the day was Pak Jack EW. I made sure that I gave myself some time to bet this wkend!!
Thought Hello Bud ran well but maybe his effort at Cheltenham last week started to take its toll late on?
#56
November 22nd, 2009 15:01
Don’t you qualify for a free bet with them. Myself I did it online with the Magic Sign at SP. (Ladbrokes)
#57
November 22nd, 2009 15:06
Free bet with Pad Pow? Not at the moment no. Can’t believe Vic Venturi was allowed to start at 7-1, the softening ground was always likely to be in his favour.
#58
November 22nd, 2009 15:21
According to the beeb he was friendless in the market. That’s why I don’t pay any attention to SP trends. Although you feel more confident when the market is going with you.
I thought that PP does the sponsoring for CH4 racing saying free bet if your winner is 4/1 or better. Might be confusing them with another bookmaker.
Still your book is 3/3 for this weekend even if I picked the wrong one at 3.10 Ascot.
#59
November 22nd, 2009 15:32
Yeah, SP trends are not much cop in my opinion; the horse doesn’t know what price it is!
Think you are confusing PP with B365.
Book is 3/3 this wkend and between us we are 3/3!
Ascot Hurdle – Ben = Karabak / Neil = Zaynar
Amlin Chase – B = Albertas Run / N = Schindlers H
Becher – B = Vic Venturi / N = Vic Venturi
Do we think Vic Venturi will be raised 7lbs for his win to 155? More if Mr Smith adds the Aintree factor?
#60
November 22nd, 2009 16:10
If he goes up to 155 there’s a better Old Vic rated 154 – previous winner and 2nd – COD!! Be interesting to see what his rating is though – apart from that everything else would be pretty much spot on for VV with a hurdles run and a spin in the Bobbyjo to freshen him up. 25/1 too short with doubts about the weight.
#61
November 22nd, 2009 21:54
Well I am happy with Hello Buds 5th palce. OR 142 should stay the same(?) – was this the plan all along?. He finished and got to look around Aintee and those GN fences after a hard race at cheltenham and runs better over further and better ground. One for the short list.
Anyone got Hello Buds best RPR rating? How does his general GN profile look now?
#62
November 23rd, 2009 00:05
His best RPR is when he won the Scottish National and was 145, his runs this season at Ascot and Cheltenham have been 143 and 144.
#63
November 23rd, 2009 08:28
Any news if Palypso De Creek will be aimed at the National after a quite nice run on sunday ?
#64
November 23rd, 2009 14:43
Well done Ben/Neil for sticking with the ‘dosage’ favourite Vic Venturi- I thought the weight rise would stop him and Keenan’s Future, I backed it e/w 14/1, would prevail. Becher seems to be becoming a stat friendly chase.
Perhaps VV will get a huge OR rise for GN but you never know what will turn up next April and he might still end up somewhere around the 11st mark.