Grand National Prep Races: Paddy Power Leopardstown
Apart from the Welsh National at Chepstow, the other big handicap chase over the Festive period is the Paddy Power at Leopardstown and this is another race which can have connotations on the Grand National at Aintree.
In recent years Aintree horses such as Hear The Echo, Point Barrow, Chelsea Harbour, and Numbersixvalverde have run in this valuable handicap at the Leopardstown Xmas Festival meeting. Also, second in last year’s Leopardstown race was Vic Venturi, winner of the Becher Chase this year and currently 20/1 with Stan James for victory in the 2010 Grand National.
The likes of Gungadu, Siegemaster, Parsons Pistol and Pomme Tiepy are in the declarations at Leopardstown and could also end up vying for a place at Aintree but who might actually win this year’s Paddy Power Chase?
Looking at the seven previous winners of this race I’ve come up with the following as a way of whittling down the field:
OR = 106-142 7/7
Weight = 9-10-11-3 7/7
Age = 6-9 7/7
Previously won over at least 20f over fences 7/7
No more than four runs that season 7/7
Only one or two wins previously over fences (i.e. unexposed) 6/7
This cuts the field down to the following:
Dooneys Gate
Rathmore Castle
Hoopy
Old Si
Orpheus Valley
Oscar Time
Casey Supreme
Lochan Lacha
Leanne
Hume River
Of the above I favour Oscar Time and Dooneys Gate. I am slightly worried that Oscar Time’s best runs seem to be on a right-handed track so my Xmas chocolate coin is going to go on Willie Mullins’ eight-year-old Dooneys Gate who looked to be on the verge of winning a chase at Tramore last April when tipping up at the last and made an eye-catching return to the track when third at Fairyhouse recently when running over an inadequate trip.
A light weight and the potential for improvement look the key to this race and this must be one of the few big handicaps in Ireland that Willie Mullins has still to win. Hopefully that will change on Sunday!
Who do you fancy for the Paddy Power Chase and do you think any of the runners could go on to compete at Aintree in the Grand National 2010?
This post has 4 comments
#1
December 23rd, 2009 11:09
Oscar Time for me – not a big bet but a small Xmas treble with Coe in the Welsh National & Joncol in the Lexus
#2
December 26th, 2009 18:03
The Runners and rider for the Paddy Power are:-
Carthalawn, Age 8, OR 155, Weight 11-12, TS 143, RPR 155, TF 159, Dosage 4-6-18-0-0, DP 28, DI 2.11, CD 0.50, SP 25/1
Forpadydeplasterer, Age 7, OR 156, Weight 11-12, TS 153, RPR 164, TF 165, Dosage 5-1-8-4-0, DP 18, DI 1.25, CD 0.39, SP 11/4
Golden Silver, Age 7, OR 155, Weight 11-12, TS 152, RPR 164, TF 164+, Dosage 1-2-10-3-0, DP 16, DI 1.00, CD 0.06, SP 9/2
Made In Taipan, Age 7, OR 151, Weight 11-12, TS 142, RPR 156, TF 156, Dosage 3-2-2-1-0, DP 8, DI 3.00, CD 0.88, SP 10/1
Mansony, Age 10, OR 155, Weight 11-12, TS 158, RPR 158, TF ?, Dosage 1-1-4-0-0, DP 6, DI 2.00, CD 0.50, SP 33/1
Scotsirish, Age 8, OR 154, Weight 11-12, TS 158, RPR 161, TF 163, Dosage 1-4-5-2-0, DP 12, DI 1.67 CD 0.33, SP 14/1
Tranquil Sea, Age 7, OR 156, Weight 11-12, TS 162, RPR 165, TF 171, Dosage 2-0-8-4-0, DP 14, DI 0.75, CD 0.00, SP 7/4
Watson Lake, Age 11, OR 148, Weight 11-12, TS 127, RPR 160, TF 161, Dosage 4-1-5-0-0, DP 10, DI 3.00, CD 0.90, SP 16/1
These prices are whats quoted at the time of posting.
My selection is Tranquil Sea, but I can’t see anything taking a hand at Aintree.
#3
December 26th, 2009 21:35
Sorry forgot to add their riders. Carthalawn is ridden by N P Madden, Forpadydeplasterer is ridden by A P McCoy, Golden Silver is ridden by P Townend, Made In Taipan is ridden by D N Russell, Mansony is ridden by P W Flood, Scotsirish is ridden by R Walsh, Tranquil Sea is ridden by Andrew J McNamara and Watson Lake is ridden by D J Condon.
#4
December 27th, 2009 14:56
Half a dozen or so with real claims here. Parsons Pistol, Oscar Time, Hoopy are compelling but my nod is given to Ballytrim. If can recapture form, the winner from 2007 New Bay Prop is well weighted and represents excellent EW value.
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