Grand National Prep Races 2010: The Kerry National
The Kerry National may not be hugely influential in the outcome of the 2010 Grand National but the race has thrown up one Grand National winner in the last ten years (Monty’s Pass) and a number of other horses have run in both races such as: Irish Invader, Bothar Na, Just In Debt, Garvivonnian and Haut De Gamme.
It’s certainly feasible that an Irish trainer could eye this as a good place to have a run for a horse who has the long term aim of Aintree and there are a number of potential Grand National runners still engaged at Listowel on Wednesday 16th September including:
Backstage
Hoo La Baloo
Royal County Star
Church Island
Northern Alliance
Himalayan Trail
Also in the field is dual Kerry National winner Ponmeoath and David Pipe’s improving handicapper, Star Of Germany.
Trainer Form
David Pipe will be hoping his charge will become the first British trained winner of this race since Ferdy Murphy’s Macs Supreme in 2000.
The British raiders are also represented by Paul Nicholls’ Hoo La Baloo. This is a race Nicholls has attempted to win for a number of years sending over the likes of General Claremont, Galapiat Du Mesnil and most recently, Oulart.
However, the trainers to watch out for are Monty’s Pass’ trainer Jimmy Mangan who has Himalayan Trail still entered and particularly, Willie Mullins.
Mullins has had eleven runners in the last ten years in the Kerry National and they have yielded two wins (Bothar Na and Euro Leader) and two more runner-up spots so this is undoubtedly a race Mullins likes to target.
At this stage, Willie Mullins has two horses left in the declarations, 2006 winner Bothar Na and the inexperienced chaser, Sonnium.
Do any of the entries appeal to you as Grand National horses? Is there a Monty’s Pass lurking in the Kerry National? What are your fancies for the race itself?
This post has 45 comments
#1
September 11th, 2009 11:52
Thanks for the Stats Stayer over on the Irish Changelle tread.
Just to clarify it I’am looking for a runner who is between 7 to 9 years old (inclusive).
Rated between 111-135 but 120-130 are the best.
Winning weight could be anything.
Most be in form with a prep run around August but no earlier than June.
Stats on Fav I usually ignore because being fav or rank outsider would have no bearing on how it would run, however that doesn’t mean I don’t take in the price when doing my bet.
Will overlay these stat onto the current field and see what I ccome up with.
#2
September 11th, 2009 12:03
“Stats on Fav I usually ignore because being fav or rank outsider would have no bearing on how it would run, however that doesn’t mean I don’t take in the price when doing my bet.”
Neil, I would agree with that reasoning that the horse doesn’t know what price it is etc. Having said that we can learn something from the fate of the favourites. The fact that favourites haven’t performed well in recent years does give the indication that the race is competitive and open and that there might be value elsewhere.
As I said on the Irish Challenge thread, I like the look of the following at this stage:
Knock On The Head
Anothercoppercoast
Line Ball
Changing Course
Doesn’t appear to be a market at the moment but if any of the above are an e/w price and the ground is in their favour I might get involved.
#3
September 11th, 2009 19:19
Using the stats provided by The Stayer, thank you, I can elimate the following:-
Stat 1 OR between 135 to 111 so anything above Washington Lad or below Air Of Confusion can be elimated.
Stat 2 Age 7 to 9 so that means Himalayan Trail, Paco Jack, Bothar Na, Nine O, Sanglote, Sonnium & Air Of Confusion can all be elimated.
Stat 3 Horses in form with a last run no earlier than June, this means that Washington Lad, Florida Express, Cool Running, Dashing George, Ballycullen Boy, Conem, Operation Houndini, Aggie’s Lad, Clew Bay Lodge & Well Run are also elimated.
This means using these three simple yet effective stats I’ve left with Knock On The Head, Tasmin, Anothercoppercoast, The Fonze, Hill Fairy, Line Ball, Changing Course, Green Mile, Treacle & Golden Kite. I know they are no guarantees but I quite happy with the above list, will go through individual form to see if I can narrow down further.
#4
September 11th, 2009 19:30
Green Mile & Paco Jack favourites
Oddschecker & RP have the full list
#5
September 12th, 2009 13:18
Just a quick note for those considering a bet on the Kerry National the going is forecast to be HEAVY!!
#6
September 12th, 2009 16:48
The only one who fits the stats and can go on the expected ground and (near enough) the distance is Tasman who gets a quote of 16/1 with Paddy Power.
#7
September 14th, 2009 17:43
Haven’t looked at this properly and won’t have a bet because I have added all races in Ireland (except Irish National) as no bet because I want to concentrate on UK tracks only
Going to specialise in staying handicaps at Haydock, Newbury & Aintree – nice fair, flat, left-handed tracks
And save the major bets for GN and Cheltenham festivals where the season’s form is known and the vast majority of horses are trying to win
However for those interested in the Kerry National I found this on another site…it’s not my work remember!
“Not a whole lot to choose between the horses aged 6 to 9 who have landed the last 10 runnings.
No horse aged 10 or over has won the race in the last 10 years from 24 runners.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-7 or more: 2-2-14
Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 1-2-19
Horses carrying 10-7 to 10-13: 2-6-35
Horses carrying 10-6 or less: 5-17-91
Not a huge amount to be gleaned from weights carried although the first 4 home in the last 2 years have all carried 10-5 or less.
Horses rated 126 or more: 7-12-63
Horses rated 125 or less: 3-15-96
7 of 10 winners were officially rated 126 to 135
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won or placed on last completed start
7 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
8 of 10 winners (last
had run in past 30 days
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F or further
6 of 10 winners had won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival (3 of 4 exceptions had never run at Listowel before)
5 of 10 winners ran in that season’s Galway Plate
Trainers
Willie Mullins (2-2-11) has won the race twice in the last 4 years as has Eric McNamara (2-0-4) who has won the last two runnings with Ponmeoath.
Michael Hourigan (1-4-10) has seen half of his 10 runners make the frame while Arthur Moore (1-0-4) has also saddled the winner of this race in the past 10 years (2001).
Enda Bolger (0-3-6), Davy Fitzgerald (0-2-3) and Charlie Swan have all saddled multiple placed runners in the past 10 years.
Price
10 of 10 winners were priced between 11/2 and 14/1
7 of the 10 winners came from the first 5 in the betting and none have been bigger than 14/1.
Favourites (0-5-12) have not won the race in the last 10 years. Level stakes loss of 10.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
Aged 6 to 9
Officially rated 126 to 135
Won or placed last time out (in last 30 days)
Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
Won over 2M 4F+
Priced between 11/2 to 14/1 (first 5 in the betting)
Trained by Willie Mullins or Michael Hourigan”
#8
September 15th, 2009 10:27
FINAL DECS:
1 083F0-6 Ponmeoath (IRE) 17 9 11-7 E McNamara P W Flood 145
2 17-111F Royal County Star (IRE) 49 10 11-3 A J Martin P Carberry 141
3 2P24-00 Church Island (IRE) 19 10 11-2 b Michael Hourigan Andrew J McNamara 140
4 1F34-04 Northern Alliance (IRE) 48 8 11-2 A J Martin R Walsh
5 241311 Star of Germany (IRE) 25 9 10-13 D Pipe T Scudamore 137
6 96-3P45 Kerryhead Windfarm (IRE) 17 11 10-12 b A Maguire 136
7 0-51438 Washington Lad (IRE) 17 9 10-11 b P A Fahy B J Geraghty 135
8 4P0F0-P Himalayan Trail 19 10 10-8 James J Hartnett 132
9 201311 Paco Jack (IRE) 17 5 10-8 t J Crowley R M Power 132
10 419-352 Knock On The Head (IRE) 49 7 10-7 p1 J Crowley M P Walsh 131
11 6PU-390 Bothar Na (IRE) 49 10 10-5 W P Mullins P Townend 129
12 P0-F28U Cool Running (IRE) 19 9 10-5 p C Roche A P Crowe 129
13 PP21P0- Dashing George (IRE) 164 7 10-5 p E McNamara A P Cawley 129
14 2/1278-2 Tasman (IRE) 50 9 10-5 L McAteer D N Russell 129
15 BF-5644 Anothercoppercoast (IRE) 49 9 10-2 P A Roche 126
16 53F26-1 The Fonze (IRE) 31 8 10-2 E Doyle J R Barry 126
17 283U/7-0 Ballycullen Boy (IRE) 45 9 10-1 D E Fitzgerald 125
18 8481-63 Hill Fairy 32 7 10-1 J Morrison K T Coleman 125
19 51F-564 Line Ball (IRE) 17 8 10-1 b C Roche Reserve 1 125
20 175P-96 Conem (IRE) 3 9 10-0 W J Austin Reserve 2 124
21 85-2602 Green Mile 39 7 9-13 t A J Martin Reserve 3 123
Glad I didn’t get involved AP as a couple of the ones I fancied don’t line up.
Might have a look at Knock On The Head and Anothercoppercoast tomorrow. The Fonze also interests me now that Changing Course is a non-runner.
#9
September 15th, 2009 11:23
Stayer I still fancy Tasman but with Soft to Heavy going I.am only doing small stakes, probably each way as well.
#10
September 15th, 2009 12:50
Can anyone tell me what RPR Tasman was given for its win on the 31st July 2008? – Thanks.
By the way, according to the Racing Post, the going is now “yielding”.
#11
September 15th, 2009 13:13
any thoughts on dashing george e/w.possible
#12
September 15th, 2009 14:28
Tasman has a squeak but he seemed to be outstayed by Natal last time over 22f and Natal wouldn’t be a horse that you would consider a great stayer. He is a useful horse though so it’s possibe that his superior class over Tasman saw him through rather than stamina.
Still looking at Knock On The Head, Anothercoppercoast and The Fonze. At 7, Knock On The Head is the youngest of the three so is possibly the one that could be progressing – he finished 2nd in the Galway Plate last time. My worry would be that though he’s won at 20f a few times, he’s not won in 6 attempts beyond that distance.
Anothercoppercoast finished 2 places and 2l behind Knock On The Head in the Galway Plate. He’s 2lb better off with KOTH for that, but again, his furthest under rules is over 20f. He has though won a P2P over 24f and did look to be staying on stronger than most in the Galway plate. I give him more chance of seeing out the trip than KOTE.
The Fonze is interesting. Never raced over 24f but is 2/2 over 22f which is the furthest he’s raced. Looked like there was more in the tank when he won last time out though he did have a claimer taking 7lbs off. Sneaks into this race on 10-02 and though this is a step up in class and trip he arrives in good form. My concern is that although he’s won on heavy a couple of times, he may be better on decent ground. He’s as big as 25/1 though and that price could tempt me.
#13
September 15th, 2009 21:01
seems to be money going on The Fonze [16's from 25's with WH].
#14
September 16th, 2009 08:20
Think i’ll have a small EW on Cool Running, unseated last time and hampered the time before when AP was on board, clearly must think highly of him to send him over to ffos las LTO. Gone down 6lbs for that fall and looks very well handicapped against the horses he ran against at Galway. Ballycullen boy, the fonze and Tasman look like the should go close with the latter having previous course form
#15
September 16th, 2009 08:26
The going is not as bad as anticipated as it’s listed as yielding with good-yielding in places. Think I might have some of the 25s available on The Fonze.
#16
September 16th, 2009 10:50
Fancy so many horses in the race, but am going to have a bet on Anothercoppercoast ew. Ticks more boxes than the rest.
#17
September 16th, 2009 19:03
A change of tactics from Church Island, At Ffos Las he was always towards the rear, here he was ridden more up with the pace and just failed by a length to Northern Alliance. My horse finished nowhere.
Maybe with Church Island it might be like Beef Or Salmon where his best form is the other side of the Irish Sea, or maybe the Ffos Las race came too soon or maybe he just had an off day. I really don’t know but will keep an eye on him, but keep my money in my wallet until I’ve figured him out.
#18
September 17th, 2009 09:28
I backed Royal County Star last year AP, but he never even got an entry.
I like him as a potential National horse, but will be keeping an eye on him, and my money in my wallet, for now.
#19
September 17th, 2009 13:52
Agree with RCS
#20
September 18th, 2009 09:17
Church Island; If he’s entered- can’t find any National price quote for him anywhere, so may be big if – I’m convinced he would be one of the stat horses next April.
Neil, a good point about’figuring’ his form out. I think the answer to this is his trainer. In the four ‘richest’ races Church Island has contested, all Class 1, he’s never been further than 5 lengths away from the winner.
The slight worry I have about him at this stage is he won his two Class 1 novice chases on soft and heavy(does he need a lot of rain at Aintree?)
In keeping with the very interesting dosage discussion on other threads, His Dosage Profile, 1-0-3-8-6, suggests not enough speed, though he has won two chases, one a C1, at 20f. Still reading up, trying to understand dosage figures!, so he has 2.5 speed points
(adding up the first two columns and half of the third) and 17.5 stamina points(adding up the last two columns and half of the third). Unusual but Seagram had 3 speed and 23 stamina, Rough Quest had 3 speed 17 stamina.
#21
September 18th, 2009 09:52
Great points about Church Island Crisp
He does rate an excellent each-way bet for the National should he line up because his jumping and form in the big races holds up really well (plus his trainer is no mug)
My only concerns are that he sets the race up for stalking horses (as can be seen by RP comments below) and potentially there will be plenty of other front runners in the race – Black Apalachi, Mr Pointment, Hello Bud, Irish Raptor all like to get on with it too
Irish National 2007 (4th)
Soon 2nd, led from 8th, ridden 4 out, strongly pressed from next, headed last, no extra run-in
Irish National 2009 (2nd)
Prominent, led 9th, headed before 6 out, ridden to lead entering straight, headed 2 out, kept on, no extra run-in
Sandown (Bet365) Gold Cup 2009 (4th)
Led 3rd and soon about 8 lengths clear, well ahead with one pursuer from 15th, headed 3 out, kept on same pace after (tchd 17-2)
Kerry National 2009 (2nd)
Chased leader in 2nd, led 3rd, ridden and headed 2 out, kept on, close 3rd last, kept on same pace to go 2nd run-in
#22
September 18th, 2009 10:00
On the Dosage points…
The three winners from Mr Frisk onwards that have no Solid or Professional points (Mr Frisk, Red Marauder and Mon Mome) all have fewer than 10 points overall (Royal Athlete not available)
Other horses that I have noticed with a similar pattern (10 or fewer points with no Solid or Professional points) this year are Big Fella Thanks, Hot Weld and Royal County Star
So perhaps those 3 should not be ruled out on breeding alone
#23
September 18th, 2009 10:16
*didn’t mean stalking horses meant less prominently-ridden horses
#24
September 18th, 2009 10:41
Not a great race from a punting point of view but it was good to see two of the more likely National candidates fighting out the finish.
Church Island ran another sound race in defeat. Once again he’s shown that he jumps well and copes with big fields. To me he remains very interesting for the National though I do echo some of the concerns expressed above in that he might set the race up for something in behind especially as he could get taken on for the lead and end up going too fast early doors. I would also be a bit concerned that he’s rising 11 and has not run in the race before. Maybe the owners are not up for it? However, if he is entered, with any luck Hourigan will run him without the blinkers and/or hold him up a few times which would guarantee a decent e/w price.
Royal County Star I am less keen on. Still looks a bit chancy over some of his fences and as a 10yo he’s unlikely to be improving in that department. He is probably a bit of an iffy jumper. I also have stamina doubts. I know he has won the big 3m Troytown Chase and finished 2nd in an Irish National but he was beaten a long way behind HTE that day, and failed to make an impression in this year’s contest and also the BET365 at Sandown last year. He has also previously pulled up in a Hennessy. His last 2 wins were over 18f and 17f and I just get the impression that this horse is best at around that sort of trip.
#25
September 18th, 2009 11:25
To be fair RCS did finish best of those carrying 11st+ in Irish GN (normally won by a horse carrying 10st)
Agree that RCS might flatter to deceive on the long Aintree run-in but I think the trainer is planning something big for him this season (first summer campaign and best run for 18 months at Kerry National under his belt)
#26
September 18th, 2009 12:15
Hi everyone
I’m glad the Dosage theme has been carried on in other threads.
Crisp – If you want to understand the Dosage theory, please buy my book. When I 1st came across Dosage I was almightily confused, however I have spent the best part of 4 years studying the subject and there is a large section of my book that describes Dosage as plainly and concisely as I could manage. Whilst writing my book I showed the ‘Dosage explained’ pages to a number of people who knew nothing about horse racing in the hope that complete novices could understand what I was trying to get across. The results were positive, so don’t try to hard at the moment to bust your brains getting your head around the figures, my book will hopefully explain all. I can say at the moment you are on the right lines but maybe looking too in-depth at the individual figures.
As for Church Island, I would tend to agree, he may actually be a touch too slow for the national and would probably need the soft/heavy ground you mentioned.
#27
September 18th, 2009 14:49
Ben,
Dosage is something that I have limted knowledge about so it’s interesting to hear your take on horses from that viewpoint. I will check out your book when it is released.
I understand the general point about a horse having too much speed and not enough stamina for a race like the National but i’m not too sure what you mean about Church Island being “a touch too slow.” Visually, he doesn’t appear to be a horse that’s particularly slow as he seems to be able to get to the front of big fields – he did in the Irish National, Bet365 and Kerry National. I sometimes wonder if he lacks the gears to quicken if necessary at the end of the race, but in the National the second circut is typically slower than the first so this wouldn’t generally be an issue. At the end of the National horses are more staying-on rather than sprinting.
#28
September 18th, 2009 16:01
The Stayer
Apologies for my grammar, I was at work when I submitted my last reply so it was a rushed post! By being “a touch too slow” I meant slow from a Dosage perspective, i.e. he has a stamina heavy Dosage rating. Your analysis of him is exactly the point I was trying to get at, he lacks the gears to quicken at the end of his races, his Dosage figures certainly hint at this as do his performances on the track. Church Island’s front running tendencies come from his stamina influences allowing him to keep up a constant gallop rather than any speed influences allowing him to set off at a rate of Knots.
However, now that I am home from that lovely place called work I have had a proper look at Church Island’s Dosage figures and comparing them to previous winners suggest that he might indeed fit the profile of a national winner.
He would still be a touch on the (Dosage) slow side for a national winner but I would not be discounting him from calculations.
Regards
#29
September 18th, 2009 19:08
Hi there, the’s a lot of interest concerning the Dosage system. Like I said on other threads my knowledge is limited on the subject but was first introduce to the Dosage system by Nick Mordin in the Weekender (mainly for the Derby).
He also covers this, and many more, in his book “Betting For A Living” as well as a system for the Grand National in which he says the most easy race to analyse.
The Dosage system was invented by Steven A. Roman who worked at Shell Oil in Houston and mainly for the Kentucky Derby. He published is Dosage Index in 1981 and said a Dosage Index greater than 4.0 should not be able to stay the Kentucky Derby distance of a mile and a quarter. Breeding experts at the time was outraged by this and when Strike The Gold won who D.I was more than the 4.0 experts thought that the idea was finished but Strike The Gold won in a slow time.
The are five groups in the Dosage Profile
B=Brilliant (influence for speed),
I=Inermediate (influence for speed),
C=Classic (influence for speed and stamina),
S=Solid (influence for stamina)
P=Professional (infuence for stamina)
You are looking for the Chef-de-race in a horse’s pedigree and the Sire gets 16 points,Grandsire 8 points each,Great Grandsires 4 points each and finally Great, Great Grandsires 2 points each.
A Chef-de-sire can have his points split between to adjacent caterogies like I and C but not say B and P.
The Profile is a matter of adding up the points the higher the profile the classier the horse and the Centre Of Distribution shows where the stongest influence in a horse’s pedigree. The higher the CD the more speed there is.
To find the DI we take the points in B+I+(half of C) and divide the answer by the points in S+P+(the other half of C).
To find the CD we must double the points in B add the points in I then deduct double the points in P and finally deduct the points in S.
Of course I found an amazing site which does this work for you Pedigreenquery.com
Like I said Ben, Nick has tried this on the national himself, but in national hunt races they go slower than their flat counterpart. For example a 2 mile race over the flat would be finished sooner than a 2 mile hurdle race, and that would be finished sooner than a 2 mile chase.
Look forward to giving your book a try though.
#30
September 18th, 2009 19:48
Neil
You are correct, 2 miles on the flat is quicker than 2 over jumps. However I am not looking at this from a time perspective. I have taken the view that some horses are just not genetically built to be successful in some races, at some race tracks, under certain conditions or a mixture of all three. I think you may be surprised by the findings in my book.
When I first started looking at Dosage and the effect it has on national hunt racing I sent my findings to Dr Romans who himself stated what I had uncovered was indeed very interesting.
I myself have successfully implemented Dosage into my own race analysis for a number of years.
#31
September 19th, 2009 09:56
Hi Ben.
I was wondering with the Dosage System do you use the Dosage Index.
In the Derby (contested by 3yo colts) Nick says the limit for the D.I. is 3.8.
However for the Oaks (contested by 3yo fillies) he says the limit is double that (7.6).
Would this be the same for the national, is the limit double for a mare (Nickel Coin being the last successful mare) or are they on level terms with the others. Or do you not use the D.I.?
#32
September 19th, 2009 10:22
Ben,
Thanks for your reply. I wasn’t picking up on your grammar, I just wanted clarification of what you mean by “too slow”. Thanks for the explanation, it’s pretty much what I thought you meant.
Does having the ability to change gears/quicken etc at the end of a race really matter in a race like the National? I can see how a galloper that lacks gears (i.e. Church Island) could be short of pace at the end of a 3m race, especially a race run at a slow pace, but 4m4f at Aintree is different. I think in most cases the first circut is run at a faster pace than the second, as horses get tired etc. At the end of the National horses appear more like they’re staying on past their rivals rather than accelerating away.
#33
September 19th, 2009 11:29
Looking at the Nationals since 1990 (Mr Frisk) there have been two winners sired by Roselier (Royal Athlete & Bindaree) and two by Montelimar (Monty’s Pass & Hedgehunter). The Busted influence on the sire’s side has produced no less than 5 winners (Seagram, Rough Quest, Bobbyjo, Numbersixvalverde & Silver Birch).
To me these results do not look like coincidences. It appears that some influences are significantly stronger than others.
18 times a horse sired by Montelimar has run in the National (1999 onwards) – includes Hedgehunter 5 attempts and Monty’s Pass 3 attempts
20 times a horse sired by Roselier has run in the National (1999 onwards) – includes Bindaree 4 attempts
42 times a horse with Busted on the sire’s side has run in the National (1999 onwards) – includes Brave Highlander 3 attempts
Amazingly if you take into account best RPR 144+, 3-6 runs in season from 1st September, 11’5 or lower, key race form, winner of Class 1 race and run within 50 days you get:
Montelimar – Monty’s Pass (1) & Hedgehunter (1)
Roselier – Bindaree (1 & 6), Kendal Cavalier (12) & D’Argent (U) – plus Royal Athlete won in 1995
Busted influence on sire’s side – Bobbyjo (1), Supreme Glory (2), Numbersivalverde (1), Joes Edge (7), Silver Birch (1), Simon (F) – plus Seagram won in 1991 and Rough Quest won in 1996
That makes 12 qualifiers with key factors in their favour from 1999 onwards:
6 winners
1 2nd
3 other finishers
1 unseated
1 fell
Plus 3 other winners of the race during the 1990s
Qualifiers so far this year – RPR best 144+, key race form & winner of Class 1 race – the Irish National 1 & 2: Niche Market & Church Island.
#34
September 19th, 2009 13:33
Ben my point with flat against jumps is not so much as time, but of being a true run race. Some NH races are not true run races. Strike The Gold in my example won the Kentucky Derby in a slow time and so you can conclude it was not a true run race. Still interested in your book though.
#35
September 19th, 2009 14:27
Great discussion guys
Neil
I use both DI and CD ratings in analysis. No difference between geldings and colts (so far, may be something I will look into in future versions of narrowing the field). I agree some NH races are not true run races but they also have obstacles to clear, these variables are just part and parcel of the great sport of jumps racing, probably why we love it so much.
The Stayer
You are correct; over 4m4f it is unlikely horses will be changing gear at the end of the race. However, I do feel 4 of the last 5 winners (Silver Birch excluded) have shown some form of acceleration in the final stages of the national. Unsure why this is but that is my own personal observation.
Pablo
Very interesting post and excellently researched. Busted is one of the influential sires highlighted by Dosage. Busted is placed in the Solid section which basically means he produces/has produced horses that excel at the longer distances. Any horse with Busted in their 4 generation pedigree will gain Busted’s stamina influences. As I mentioned in another thread on here, Niche Market is a horse I have my eye on with regards to Dosage and the National.
#36
September 19th, 2009 14:32
From 1999 onwards:
Sired by Roselier or Montelimar or with Busted influence on sire side, best RPR 144+, 3-6 runs in season from 1st September, 11′5 or lower, key race form, winner of Class 1 race and run within 50 days:
12 qualifiers – 6 winners, 1 placed, 3 unplaced, 2 failed to complete
Other sires and no Busted on sire side, best RPR 144+, 3-6 runs in season from 1st September, 11′5 or lower, key race form, winner of Class 1 race and run within 50 days:
34 qualifiers – 5 winners, 4 placed, 8 unplaced, 17 failed to complete
#37
September 19th, 2009 14:37
Ben – do you have any views on Presenting as a sire?
Someone on here (I think that it was Maureen, apologies if not) suggested that Presenting has never sired a horse to have won over 4m+ (admittedly not that many races)
Also Strong Gale appears to have been a negative influence for GN runners (although a great sire at up to 3m 4f)
#38
September 19th, 2009 15:36
Pablo
No surprise that Strong Gale is a negative sire for the national as he passes on a vast number of speed influences to his progeny, not ideal for the national obviously.
Presenting is a sire that is very much on the up at the moment. Any runner sired by Presenting should definitely be given at least a second look. Put simply, this stallion brings stamina to the table, primarily due to Busted being his grand-sire. I would not be discounting his runners at 4mile +, as you say I don’t think that many have tried. Off top of my head I know that Niche Market was 4th in the 4miler at 08 Cheltenham Festival and Out the Black was 3rd in this years Scottish national and 2nd in the 08 Summer national, both 4m 1/2f. His offspring are certainly bred to stay long distances.
#39
September 19th, 2009 20:06
Small correction to a note I made earlier the site is pedigreequiry.com not pedigreenquiry.com
#40
September 23rd, 2009 11:11
How old is Silver Birch now? I understand he’s running in the cross country race at Cheltenham next month. He was going so well when coming down in this years National, and still doesn’t have a lot of miles on the clock. Think Gordon Elliott is an amazing trainer.
#41
September 23rd, 2009 11:41
Maureen, Silver Birch is twelve at this moment. Foaled on the 6 april 97. Next national would make him thirteen.
#42
September 23rd, 2009 16:29
Thanks Neil; I thought he’d be @ 13 next year. Perhaps they are just going to aim him at the cross country races, which would make more sense, age wise. Interested to read the comment about Over the Creek on another thread; I’ve backed this horse before only to have him not run, but have always fancied him for the race, and no one better than the Pipes for bringing a horse back after a few problems.
#43
September 23rd, 2009 18:33
admin
Really thinke you should expand this site and put up a cheltenham antepost page/site. This site clearly has some of the most knowledgable race followers and would love to hear everyone’s views. I have all the stats and trends available for all four days and already know that medermit has a huge chance in the Arkle
#44
September 23rd, 2009 22:12
I would welcome a “tips” section for National Hunt races where we might discuss other races within the same site – we are (mostly) all National nuts but most of us also love the other major jumps races too
#45
September 23rd, 2009 22:47
I thought that the summer national & Kerry National threads an excellent idea. Would love more threads on national trials and possibly other big races too.
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