Grand National 2010 Weights Competition
The weights for the Grand National 2010 will be published on Tuesday February 16th and as last year’s weights competiton was so popular we thought we would do it all over again!
All you have to do is nominate what weight the following horses will be allocated on February 16th and then complete a tiebreaker of EXACTLY how many horses you think will be left in the entries after the publication of the first weights on Tuesday i.e how many horses will be allocated a weight.
The horses we would like you to try and work out Grand National weights for are:
Arbor Supreme
Dream Alliance
Irish Raptor
Mon Mome
Whinstone Boy
Tiebreaker: Number of horses entered at Tuesday 16th February =
Just cut and paste the above paragraph together with your ideas of each horses weight and the number of entries on Tuesday.
You get 10 points for every horse’s weight you get exactly right and 5 points if you are 1lb out either way (higher or lower). Any other weight scores 0.
Entries for this competiton will be accepted up to 10am on Tuesday 16th February.
In the event of one or more of the featured horses not actually featuring in the weights then just the remaining horses will count.
Only one entry per person please and there can be no editing of entries so don’t enter until you are sure you have your final version.
This will just be a fun competiton this year so no prizes apart form the glory of being the Grand National Guide version of Mystic Meg! Regular contributor kj won this competition in 2009 – can she make it a double or will someone else come out on top?
I will also have to ask you all to self score this competition initially as I will be away from my desk until the 22nd of February. I will, of course, check the results on my return but if you would like to work out the winner between you in the interim that would be very helpful.
Good luck to all and let’s try and beat the number of entires to last year’s comp – Get all your mates to have a go!
Darren
Admin
This post has 25 comments
#1
February 9th, 2010 21:44
Arbor Supreme – 144
Dream Alliance – 151
Irish Raptor – 140
Mon Mome – 161
Whinstone Boy – 148
#2
February 9th, 2010 22:00
Thanks for being first TC
Just to make it easier for anyone not used to using ratings could we use the actual weight they will be allocated i.e.
Irish Raptor – 10-0 etc
and we also need the tiebreak with the number of horses entered at the weights stage.
Thanks
#3
February 9th, 2010 22:02
so, for example:
Arbor Supreme 10-0
Dream Alliance 10-0
Irish Raptor 10-0
Mon Mome 10-0
Whinstone Boy 10-0
Tiebreaker: Number of horses entered at Tuesday 16th February = 100
#4
February 10th, 2010 00:12
Okay Admin, i’am willing to give it a try. Don’t know how everyone did last year but here goes.
First is Mon Mome thanks to Pablo we know his OR is set at 161, we just assumed it would be top weight. I think Notre Pere will be top weight on OR 163. So Mon Mome will be allotted 11 stone 8 pounds.
Dream Alliance is on 10 pound lower than that so I expect his weight to be 10 stone 12 pounds.
According to racing post Arbor Supreme is on a handicapped mark of 140, but because he’s from Ireland I expect his mark to be raised to 143 giving him the weight of 10 stone 4 pounds.
Irish Raptor I think will run on a mark of 138 the same mark that he ran in the becher’s chase because in Phil Smith’s blog he mentioned that he would help those that support the race. This will give him the weight of 9 stone 13 pounds.
Finally Whinestone Boy OR is 131 but because of the Irish factor he will be 134 which gives him 9 stone 9 pounds.
As for the tie-breaker I think the will be 109 horses declared.
#5
February 10th, 2010 10:32
Arbor Supreme – 10’09
Dream Alliance – 10’13
Irish Raptor – 10’00
Mon Mome – 11’06
Whinstone Boy – 10’00
Tiebreaker: Number of horses entered at Tuesday 16th February = 111
#6
February 10th, 2010 15:05
Arbor Supreme 10-3
Dream Alliance 11-0
Irish Raptor 10-1
Mon Mome 11-10
Whinstone Boy 10-2
tie breaker; 110
#7
February 10th, 2010 18:30
Arbor Supreme 10-5
Dream Alliance 10-11
Irish Raptor 10-1
Mon Mome 11-8
Whinstone Boy 9-12
Tiebreaker: Number of horses entered at Tuesday 16th February = 104
#8
February 10th, 2010 18:36
Arbor Supreme – 144 – 10’4
Dream Alliance – 151 – 10’11
Irish Raptor – 140 – 10’00
Mon Mome – 161 – 11’07
Whinstone Boy – 150 – 10-10
tiebreaker; 111
#9
February 10th, 2010 20:06
The tie-break question doesn’t make sense – we already know how many horses will be entered as of Tuesday 16th Feb:-
Entries closed February 2,
entries revealed February 3 (112 entries), weights revealed February 16,
first scratchings deadline March 2,
second scratchings deadline March 23.
Five/six-day confirmation stage April 5,
final declaration stage 10.00am, April 8.
#10
February 10th, 2010 20:16
Arbor Supreme 10-02
Dream Alliance 10-11
Irish Raptor 9-13
Mon Mome 11-07
Whinstone Boy 9-12
Tiebreaker: Number of horses entered at Tuesday 16th February = whatever
#11
February 10th, 2010 21:23
Me6 the tie breaker question does make sense as each year the is a few whom are so low in the ratings as to not qualify. This year the maximum entered when the weights are published will be 111 as one is retired.
#12
February 10th, 2010 23:44
Arbor Supreme 10-1
Dream Alliance 10-13
Irish Raptor 9-11
Mon Mome 11-7
Whinstone Boy 10-2
Tiebreaker: Number of horses entered at Tuesday 16th February = 108
#13
February 11th, 2010 14:34
Arbor Supreme – 10_03
Dream Alliance – 11_01
Irish Raptor – 10_01
Mon Mome – 11′08
Whinstone Boy – 10-09
Tiebreaker:- 109
#14
February 11th, 2010 15:50
Arbor Supreme – 10’05
Dream Alliance – 10’13
Irish Raptor – 10’00
Mon Mome – 11′09
Whinstone Boy – 10’09
Tiebreaker:- 108
#15
February 11th, 2010 19:00
Arbor Supreme – 10.00
Dream Alliance – 10.11
Irish Raptor – 9.09
Mon Mome – 11.07
Whinstone Boy – 9.13
Tiebreaker: – 111
#16
February 12th, 2010 01:06
Arbor Supreme – 10′05
Dream Alliance – 10′13
Irish Raptor – 9’13
Mon Mome – 11′9
Whinstone Boy – 10′06
Tiebreaker:- 109
#17
February 13th, 2010 18:21
Arbor Supreme 10,6
Dream Alliance 10,12
Irish Raptor 9,12
Mon Mome 11,9
Whinstone Boy 10,4
Tiebreaker – 107
#18
February 14th, 2010 19:11
Here goes…
ARBOR SUPREME 10-6
DREAM ALLIANCE 10-13
IRISH RAPTOR 10-03
MON MOME 11-10
WHINSTONE BOY 10-04
Tiebreaker 110
#19
February 15th, 2010 12:02
Albertas Run 164 11-10
Mon Mome 162 11-08
Dream Alliance 151 10-11
Arbor Supreme 142 10-02
Whinstone Boy 141 10-01
Irish Raptor 135 9-09
Tiebreaker: 110
#20
February 16th, 2010 09:24
Arbor Supreme 10-03
Dream Alliance 10-12
Irish Raptor 10-00
Mon Mome 11-09
Whinstone Boy 10-04
Tiebreaker: Number of horses entered at Tuesday 16th February = 111
#21
February 16th, 2010 12:26
Miinnehoma – 10 pts
Gammers – 10 pts
Ewok – 10 pts
TC – 10 pts
Me6 – 10 pts
Teddyt – 10 pts
Desert Orchid – 10 pts
Showlad – 10 pts
Daniel Edwards – 5 pts
Neil S – 5 pts
Sootydoggolf – 5 pts
Brody 5 p ts
By my reckoning…
Anybody disagree?
Just goes to show how hard it is!!
#22
February 16th, 2010 15:24
I disagree about it being hard. It is just a question of judging the weight compression – 6 lbs in this case.
If we had gone by the ratings that Smith has used, instead of the weight allocated, I would have got 3 correct (AS, DA and WB) for example, and I’m fairly sure most people would have got 2 or 3, or maybe 4.
#23
February 16th, 2010 15:29
Well then, it is hard, isn’t it!! Part of it is judging what the compression will be, what horses will get bumped for the Aintree factor, how he will treat the Irish horses.
That’s 2 years now we’ve done this, and nobody has got more than 1 right yet!!
#24
February 16th, 2010 15:50
Agree with your tally Daniel, and 4 of us still level after applying the tie-breaker.
Honours very much even!
#25
February 16th, 2010 20:26
it is a bit of a ridiculous competition, based on weights instead of ratings, because if you get the weight compression wrong you’re likely to get most of it wrong, and if you get the weight compression correct then you’re likely to get most of it correct. It is either feast or famine.
On the other hand, if the competition is based on ratings instead, then each horse is treated as a separate entity, and you are more likely to get a wider spread of scores.
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