Comments on: Grand National 2010: Value Bets

By: TC

TC — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 09:06:55 +0000

Ben – A mix of Presenting and Strong Gale would not fill me with great confidence as to WoA staying the trip

By: Ben Aitken (NTF)

Ben Aitken (NTF) — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 08:15:22 +0000

War of Attrition is by Presenting. The Strong Gale influence is in the 3rd generation on the Dam’s side so the influence will be diluted a little.

DomiDarko

IRIS DE BALME is entered at Wetherby tomorrow and Lingfield on Monday, both entries are for Novice Hurdles.

He was in a Novice Hurdle race at the cancelled Donny meeting from last weekend.

By: DomiDarko

DomiDarko — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 18:40:17 +0000

What happened to Iris de Balme anyone?

By: TC

TC — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 17:11:56 +0000

My AP bet has gone to Church Island before xmas. In terms of looking for a nice priced outsider – the one who is still a massive price is Mr Pointment. Paul Murphy trained Cerium and Arteea last year who both ran very well in the national. I wouldnt expect him to win but should make a nice place bet

Looking at what is likely to be the front of the market, there should be a lot of value on the day as it looks quite weak to me

Tricky Trickster and Big Fella Thanks – Probably 1st and 2nd favourite after PN has another great Cheltenham. Neither will have had enough runs over fences this season

Black Apalachi – Weighted out of it

Possol – Mr seagull’s tip at the start of the season

Backstage – Gordon Elliot already meriting respect in the national

Vic Venturi – won a poor becher

Don’t Push It – Likely to be McCoy’s mount

War of Attrition – Strong Gale horse’s have a terrible record in the national and i don’t expect WoA to stay the trip

So i’d expect the first 4 home to all return at quite high prices

By: Nick Mannion

Nick Mannion — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 14:05:35 +0000

If it gets an entry then Garde Champetre, especially if they put Nina C in the saddle has to be considered. It depends on how it would get handicapped (translating cross counrty form) but I will certainly back it if it runs.
Last years race threw up few clues as Mon Mome won going away (watch the 08 race and it would have finished nearer but for Butlers Cabin almost bringing it to a standstill at second Bechers) so Black Apalachi is worthy of a look . Both Specify and West Tip fell at second Bechers the years before they won and Little Polvier had 3 failed attempts to get round before he won.
Best of last years runs under the weight was Comply Or Die. The rest of the top ten was filled with real rubbish (Cerium) so not sure at all what else you can take out of the 09 race.

By: The Stayer

The Stayer — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 11:25:32 +0000

If you fancy WOA then I can only see his price contracting so the 33s available now is probably the best “value” you will get. Whether 33/1 is in itself “good value” is another question, but I don’t think it’s a bad price as to me he has stronger claims than most of those shorter in the market. There was a mini gamble on him in the run up to the race last year and I can see him getting a lot of attention in the press this time around – Gold Cup winner running of circa 150 (around 11st), back to winning form this season, probably running his last race etc. With the media exposure I can see him being backed into being one of the favourites come race day.

Over 50/1, maybe Iris De Balme if he can come back to form – he’s been declared for Doncaster tomorrow.

By: Jamie Taylor

Jamie Taylor — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 15:05:05 +0000

I haven’t had the chance to study it yet and as Neil S says, it is hard to put any names out there until the field has been studied.

However, from what I have seen / heard at the moment and in the name of fun:

under 50/1 – The Package.

over 50/1 – Irish Invader.

By: Pablo

Pablo — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 08:12:08 +0000

I wouldn’t say it was value but this price might look generous with hindsight – 100+ on Beroni

A progressive horse this season (bolted up in Troytown) – he has Right Royal on his dam side (in pedigrees of Miinnehoma, Party Politics & Lord Gyllene) – so possibly has more stamina than any Accordion to have run in the GN

Entered in the Haydock Grand National Trial (Blue Sq Gold Cup) – if he turns up there and runs well he’ll be in the 20s not the 100s

By: Me6

Me6 — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 17:27:41 +0000

The two main problems with my outsider value choice Nozic are that he may not run, and he ran badly in the Welsh National.
I believe that with a lower weight this year there is every chance Nozic will run, despite Nicholls not saying anything about the subject. I’m not too worried about one bad run, as I am putting a lot of store in Nicholls saying before the WN that the horse was in good form.

By: Silver Birch

Silver Birch — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 12:37:10 +0000

Im with you admin – similar to a systems man pitch theres nothing quite like getting on early on some fancied horses and watch as the weeks pass by and see those prices contract . some people decide to lay off nearer the day and others like myself go for full unadulterated glory…. I love dabbling on these horses at big prices…even if they dont win for a couple of quid it provides great fun in both the lead up to and during the race. some people may have given up on finding value but i clearly remember comply or die available at 95s just shortly before he won the eider . so even into february if you can pick the right ones theres still a chance of some value

Im going to be naughty and say that my main fancies are nearly all trading in the mid 20s now so im going to be naughty and suggest two over 50/1 .. joe lively and maljimar .. joe lively is 230s! and maljimar approx 90s .. joe lively i believe is either a 19/20 0r 20/20 horse on the systems man stats . if he bounces back to form in the big race at cheltenham on sat with a top 3 finish why on earth is he that price . remember the tizzard stable was woefully out of form in december . I expect better on Sat . Maljimar is the type of horse i love to back in the national i.e he travels beautifully through his races when he gets the right ground . have a look at him in the Wwilliam Hill chase last March . now we know he also stays 4 miles and the trainer has already said the national is his long term target . great bets for any folk who want a couple of quid on…