Grand National 2010: Value Bets
The first entry stage for the Grand National 2010 is a week today and this will be the day when the Grand National starts to come into focus of the majority of punters and, inevitably, a number of horses will get backed as a result.
So, for those of us who are mulling over all things Grand National based for a much longer period of the year, this final week before the entries should be an opportunity to make our knowledge count.
Of course, we have to take calculated risks as to which horses are actually going to be in the entries if we have a bet now but in some cases I would rather take that chance than be scrambling to get a price when the internet and paper tipsters decide they like the look of a horse you’ve been thinking of backing for ages. With that in mind I’d like to ask our knowledgable members to put forward two pre-entries tips – one at Grand National Odds of under 50/1 and a more speculative suggestion as to an outsider that we might consider.
If you had to have two bets now under these circumstances who would you go for and why? I’ll put up similar threads as we get further down the entry process and we can see how our tips develop but I’d really like some early value tips from those of you who are putting in so much work.
I will start things off with Big Fella Thanks and Gone To Lunch.
I’m not sure how many of the main fancies still have any room for improvement but that is not something you could say about Big Fella Thanks. I was very impressed with his run in the Grand National last year for a horse so young and with the benefit of another year’s experience he could well be the horse that ends the Paul Nicholls hoodoo.
My other selection, Gone To Lunch, has been suggested as being aimed at the Scottish National instead, a race he finished second in last year. This may be so but targets often change and at 100+ on the exchanges I think Gone To Lunch could well end up at Aintree but, if not, at those prices we will not have lost too much. If he performs well at Doncaster on Saturday his price could contract so perhaps he is worth a bet now? His stamina and consistent form on decent ground would make him very interesting if he were re-routed to Aintree.
I’ve seen Maljimar put forward as an outsider to consider by some of our contributors and I’d like to see if anyone believes his current price at around 85 represents any value? How about Siegemaster or Parsons Pistol? Anyone taking these Irish horses at big prices?
Please give details of two horses you think are good value in the current Grand National Odds, one at under 50/1 and another at 50/1 or above.










This post has 15 comments
#1
January 27th, 2010 01:00
Don’t really like putting up anything before I worked anything out. However I have had a small wager on the champion hurdle result, the gold cup result at cheltenham and Niche Market in the Grand National. Nothing big just 4 £2.50 each way trebles hoping to win a maximum of two grand. Probably come to nothing but my main bet on National begins as soon as I work out the field. One I would back to lay on exchanges would be comply or die.
#2
January 27th, 2010 02:19
It is too late to look for early value bets – they have all but disappeared. The betfair market adds up to about 125% at the moment.
At the current prices, I would have to say Nozic 400 and um, err, there isn’t another one that I’d like to single out.
#3
January 27th, 2010 02:24
Well, okay, if you’re forcing us to pick a horse less than 50 then it has to be Mon Mome, innit.
#4
January 27th, 2010 08:40
Admin, the right hander Erics Charm. Was entered in 2008, now at an equalling career best OR143. RPR 150, C1 chase 2nd, won a 17k C1/C2 chase, good win place strike rates (chase and career) won at 30f placed twice more at 30f.
Me6, good call with Nozic. Won a C1 a year ago. RPR>OR15!
#5
January 27th, 2010 09:46
I’d take State of Play at shorter odds (39/1 approx), and Miko de Beauchene at longer odds (70/1 approx) if I had to have a punt now.
However, personally I will wait for the weights – some value may be lost, but weight carried is such an important factor that until you can have a decent stab at what top weight and bottom weight will be and where a given horse is framed in the handicap, punting is too much of a lottery for me at the moment.
#6
January 27th, 2010 12:37
Im with you admin – similar to a systems man pitch theres nothing quite like getting on early on some fancied horses and watch as the weeks pass by and see those prices contract . some people decide to lay off nearer the day and others like myself go for full unadulterated glory…. I love dabbling on these horses at big prices…even if they dont win for a couple of quid it provides great fun in both the lead up to and during the race. some people may have given up on finding value but i clearly remember comply or die available at 95s just shortly before he won the eider . so even into february if you can pick the right ones theres still a chance of some value
Im going to be naughty and say that my main fancies are nearly all trading in the mid 20s now so im going to be naughty and suggest two over 50/1 .. joe lively and maljimar .. joe lively is 230s! and maljimar approx 90s .. joe lively i believe is either a 19/20 0r 20/20 horse on the systems man stats . if he bounces back to form in the big race at cheltenham on sat with a top 3 finish why on earth is he that price . remember the tizzard stable was woefully out of form in december . I expect better on Sat . Maljimar is the type of horse i love to back in the national i.e he travels beautifully through his races when he gets the right ground . have a look at him in the Wwilliam Hill chase last March . now we know he also stays 4 miles and the trainer has already said the national is his long term target . great bets for any folk who want a couple of quid on…
#7
January 27th, 2010 17:27
The two main problems with my outsider value choice Nozic are that he may not run, and he ran badly in the Welsh National.
I believe that with a lower weight this year there is every chance Nozic will run, despite Nicholls not saying anything about the subject. I’m not too worried about one bad run, as I am putting a lot of store in Nicholls saying before the WN that the horse was in good form.
#8
January 28th, 2010 08:12
I wouldn’t say it was value but this price might look generous with hindsight – 100+ on Beroni
A progressive horse this season (bolted up in Troytown) – he has Right Royal on his dam side (in pedigrees of Miinnehoma, Party Politics & Lord Gyllene) – so possibly has more stamina than any Accordion to have run in the GN
Entered in the Haydock Grand National Trial (Blue Sq Gold Cup) – if he turns up there and runs well he’ll be in the 20s not the 100s
#9
January 28th, 2010 15:05
I haven’t had the chance to study it yet and as Neil S says, it is hard to put any names out there until the field has been studied.
However, from what I have seen / heard at the moment and in the name of fun:
under 50/1 – The Package.
over 50/1 – Irish Invader.
#10
January 29th, 2010 11:25
If you fancy WOA then I can only see his price contracting so the 33s available now is probably the best “value” you will get. Whether 33/1 is in itself “good value” is another question, but I don’t think it’s a bad price as to me he has stronger claims than most of those shorter in the market. There was a mini gamble on him in the run up to the race last year and I can see him getting a lot of attention in the press this time around – Gold Cup winner running of circa 150 (around 11st), back to winning form this season, probably running his last race etc. With the media exposure I can see him being backed into being one of the favourites come race day.
Over 50/1, maybe Iris De Balme if he can come back to form – he’s been declared for Doncaster tomorrow.
#11
January 29th, 2010 14:05
If it gets an entry then Garde Champetre, especially if they put Nina C in the saddle has to be considered. It depends on how it would get handicapped (translating cross counrty form) but I will certainly back it if it runs.
Last years race threw up few clues as Mon Mome won going away (watch the 08 race and it would have finished nearer but for Butlers Cabin almost bringing it to a standstill at second Bechers) so Black Apalachi is worthy of a look . Both Specify and West Tip fell at second Bechers the years before they won and Little Polvier had 3 failed attempts to get round before he won.
Best of last years runs under the weight was Comply Or Die. The rest of the top ten was filled with real rubbish (Cerium) so not sure at all what else you can take out of the 09 race.
#12
January 29th, 2010 17:11
My AP bet has gone to Church Island before xmas. In terms of looking for a nice priced outsider – the one who is still a massive price is Mr Pointment. Paul Murphy trained Cerium and Arteea last year who both ran very well in the national. I wouldnt expect him to win but should make a nice place bet
Looking at what is likely to be the front of the market, there should be a lot of value on the day as it looks quite weak to me
Tricky Trickster and Big Fella Thanks – Probably 1st and 2nd favourite after PN has another great Cheltenham. Neither will have had enough runs over fences this season
Black Apalachi – Weighted out of it
Possol – Mr seagull’s tip at the start of the season
Backstage – Gordon Elliot already meriting respect in the national
Vic Venturi – won a poor becher
Don’t Push It – Likely to be McCoy’s mount
War of Attrition – Strong Gale horse’s have a terrible record in the national and i don’t expect WoA to stay the trip
So i’d expect the first 4 home to all return at quite high prices
#13
February 3rd, 2010 18:40
What happened to Iris de Balme anyone?
#14
February 5th, 2010 08:15
TC
War of Attrition is by Presenting. The Strong Gale influence is in the 3rd generation on the Dam’s side so the influence will be diluted a little.
DomiDarko
IRIS DE BALME is entered at Wetherby tomorrow and Lingfield on Monday, both entries are for Novice Hurdles.
He was in a Novice Hurdle race at the cancelled Donny meeting from last weekend.
#15
February 5th, 2010 09:06
Ben – A mix of Presenting and Strong Gale would not fill me with great confidence as to WoA staying the trip
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