Grand National 2010: The Irish Challenge
I was updating some of the other pages on Grand National Guide earlier this week and I was shocked to see that there wasn’t an Irish horse in the first SEVEN horses home in the 2009 Grand National.
This seems completely at odds with the last three years:
2006 Irish horses placed First, Second and Fourth.
2007 Irish horses placed First and Third.
2008 Irish horses placed Second, Third and Fourth.
So, was 2009 just a blip or a collection of under performing horses? Or perhaps the British handicapper over compensated for such strong performances from our Irish counterparts in the three previous years and maybe the Irish were badly handicapped in 2009?
Of the horses to complete in 2009 Southern Vic probably didn’t have the ground to suit, Snowy Morning could possibly have had too much weight, Irish Invader may not have truly stayed, Preists Leap looked very badly handicapped and Offshore Account ran well till two out.
There were a number of incompletions and it’s very difficult to say what might have been for Hear The Echo and Black Apalachi but from a personal view a couple of the above at the very least look to have been harshly treated, although, of course, that is very easy to say in hindsight.
Other strong Irish fancies dropped out close to the race such as Garde Champetre, Notre Pere and War Of Attrition whose trainer Mouse Morris was very critical of the weight given to his ex-Gold Cup winner.
So, should we be careful when selecting possible long range fancies from over the Irish Sea? Is there a chance they will be harshly treated when they come to Aintree? If not are there any less obvious Irish horses that you will be looking out for this year?
Pablo mentioned a few interesting ones on his long list on the Early Fancies thread such as Ambobo, Casey Jones, Arbor Supreme, Emma Jane, Siegemaster etc etc. Do any of these appeal as horses who could work their way into the 2010 Aintree picture?
Let us know how you see the 2010 Irish challenge.










This post has 28 comments
#1
August 11th, 2009 18:00
When it comes to handicapping for the National Phil Smith is a complete Maverick and to be honest some of the weights allocated to the Irish horses last season were an absolute farce. He rated Hear The Echo, a horse that won the Irish National from out of the handicap, something like only 5-6lbs below stable mate and Gold Cup winner War of Attrition! What a complete joke! HTE won the Irish National off 125ish and ended up running off 153 in the National. That’s a hike of 28lbs (2st) for one victory. I think his revised Irish rating was 145, which was probably harsh enough, but 153?! Ridiculous. Preists Leap was also harshly treated. After winning the Thyestes for the second year in a row he was put up from 135 to 146 by the Irish Handicapper. However, good old Phil Smith wasn’t happy with that so whacked another 7lbs on for good measure so he ran off 153 in the National. Black Apalachi also ran off 153, which was 15lbs above his Becher Chase win. I will be watching the weights carefully nect to see if Phil Smith repeats this idiocy.
As for the Irish challenge this year, we know about Black Apalachi and he would go there with a chance again, especially if there is juice in the ground. Not really worth an AP punt at the current price though. ARBOR SUPREME is a horse that I have been following since the end of the 2007/08 season. He beat Black Apalachi over 30f at Punchestown and looked most progressive. The National was never on the agenda last season but I sort of expected a bit more from him if he was to progress to be an Aintree horse. He ran ok last season but it was a tame effort in the Irish National albeit under what looked like a “sympathetic” ride from Slippers Madden. I’m not too sure if he was really there to win the Irish National – if I had a horse good enough for Aintree I wouldn’t want it to win a race like that because we’ve seen what the handicapper does. He remains interesting. J P McManus would love to win the race and clearly has a lot of firepower but with the sad demise of Wichita Lineman and King Johns Castle returning from injury, Arbor Supreme must be one of his best chances for 2010.
Gigginstown House Stud have a couple of interesting possibilities with SIEGEMASTER and ONE COOL COOKIE. The latter is a former Grade One winner and won over 3m+ for the first time in March, when giving Arbor Supreme weight. He then looked unlucky to run out/be carried out in the Irish National when possibly staying on. He could be interesting. SIEGEMASTER was a novice last season but shapes like a thorough stayer. He may be more likey to run at Fairyhouse this season and may be more likely to head for Aintree in 2011.
Of the rest OFFSHORE ACCOUNT ran well for a long way last year considering he was only having his second start since returning from injury so he probably shouldn’t be discounted, CHURCH ISLAND ticks a lot of the right boxes and should be watched closely and the other one is RARE BOB who ran well enough at Fairyhouse before going on to win a Grade 1 at the end of the season. I’ve got a feeling connections may be aiming him at the Gold Cup though.
#2
August 11th, 2009 21:35
This is an interesting point stayer, about the handicapper Phil Smith. Sorry to go off at a tangent Admin,I know this thread’s about the Irish challenge but I feel need to add this about the handicapper Phil Smith.
You say he treated the Irish a bit harsh and you may have a valid point, in fact the first national he did, if memory serves me correct nearly all the field was compressed into the handicap proper: ie nothing in the long handicap. Before it used to be around a quarter of the field carried the correct weight.
In his defence though a handicap all the horses carrying the correct weight should finish in a dead heat. Now with forty horses (or theres about) this is never going to happen, but the does seem to be a group of horses recently at the final two fences.
Lastly to try and get back to what this threads about “Irish Challengers other than the obvious.” This is just suggestions as I really don’t know how he stand up on the stats but Rare Bob who was fourth in the Irish Grand National could be a candidate.
Other than this I have to say the obvious Black Apalache, Church Island, New Story, and Niche Market but some of these have threads of the own and the others will probably have theirs sooner or later.
#3
August 11th, 2009 21:46
A post I put up a few weeks ago:
Consider previous Irish winners:
Bobbyjo = last OR in chase of 128; OR in GN 128 (carried 142 as 14lb out of handicap) = 0 lb change in rating by handicapper
Papillon = 138; 139 = 1 lb extra by handicapper
Monty’s Pass = 137: 139 = 2 lb extra by handicapper
Hedgehunter = 144; 142 = 2 lb extra by handicapper
Numbersixvalverde = 135; 138 = 3 lb extra by handicapper
Silver Birch = 138; 138 = 0 lb change in rating by handicapper
Now consider this year’s Irish ones:
Hear The Echo = rated 145 after Irish GN; 153 = 8 lb extra by handicapper! Double penalty or what?
Black Apalachi = rated 146 after Becher Chase; 153 = 7 lb extra by handicapper! Double penalty or what?
Preists Leap = rated 146 after Thyestes Chase; 153 = 7 lb extra by handicapper! Double penalty or what?
Chelsea Harbour = rated 148 after Thyestes Chase 2nd; 156 = 8 lb extra for coming 2nd and 10lb higher than when coming a well-beaten 9th the year before = OUTRAGEOUS TREATMENT
Snowy Morning, Southern Vic, Silver Birch, Offshore Account, L’Ami, Irish Invader and Himalayan Trail all treated fairly in 2009
So it appears performing well in high profile staying handicaps within past 12 months is not on if Irish-trained
None of the fairly treated ones had won a chase except L’Ami (£8k X-Country) and Irish Invader (hat-trick of races under 2m 3f)
So if you were an Irish trainer – what would you do?
#4
August 12th, 2009 08:18
Pablo,
You confirmed there what I posted above: horses winning high profile chases in Ireland got absolutely clobbered last year whilst those winning lesser events or races over shorter trips seemed to slip under Smith’s radar.
That’s why i’m not sure what to make of Arbor Supreme’s run in the Irish National. On the face of it finishing 14th of the 17 finishers and being beaten by over 50l looks very disappointing. But as I said further up, if Willie Mullins and J P McManus think this horse is a genuine National candidate would they want the horse to win a race like the Irish National after seeing what Phil Smith did this year? Arbor Supreme was rated 141 going into the Irish National so if he had won the race would be looking at a rating of circa 160 for Aintree based on what happened to HTE. If he were mine I wouldn’t want him to win if I had the future in mind! Willie Mullins is no mug. I’ve watched the race a couple of times and by the way Arbor Supreme was ridden i’m not convinced he was there to do the business that day. He’s better than that.
From a punting point of view I would urge everyone on here not to get stuck in to Irish Horses until the weights come out. A few of my friends backed HTE all autumn and pretty much tore up their betting slips when the weights came out.
#5
August 12th, 2009 09:50
I could be interested in Preists Leap given a decent weight – How much could people see him dropping though, realistically?
#6
August 12th, 2009 11:13
Not to sure about Preists Leap. Looked like getting involved making the final turn but stopped as if shot after 2-out. Not to sure if that was just the weight. He’s by Luso who also sired Hear The Echo but it looked like his stamina gave way. Philip Enrights comments were interesting:
“He gave me a great ride and jumped well. I thought I would go very close jumping the second-last, but he got very tired. I had to use him a bit more than I would have liked early on because of the ground.”
Seems that the horse got a bit outpaced early which doesn’t bode too well.
The more I look at the possible Irish challenge the more I think we’ll have a GB trained winner again next year. Outside of Black Apalachi, Church Island, Arbor Supreme, Offshore Account, One Cool Cookie, Rare Bob and Seigemaster i’m struggling to find credible candidates.
Notre Pere and Mister Top Notch look very high in the handicap and both love the mud. Chelsea Harbour and Snowy Morning have both had a couple of cracks and aren’t getting any younger. There are then a load of useful stayers like Pomme Tiepy, Emma Jane, Hold The Pin, Well Run, Ambobo, Ballytrim etc but they all have a few lbs to find to get into the race. Of the other novices from last season i’m not convinced that Horner Woods or Casey Jones are good enough. There are a few other established chasers that could appear but I have my doubts over them too – Patsy Hall (generally indifferent form, falls), Finger Onthe Pulse (bad experience in the Topham, never won over 3m), Royal County Star (best form over 2m4f), A New Story (a nearly horse, fell in Becher Chase), Oodachee (grave stamina doubts), Southern Vic (ran ok this year but will only fair better if the ground is softer) and horses like Cane Brake and King John’s Castle have to come back from injury. I don’t think the Irish challenge is not looking that strong at the moment.
#7
August 12th, 2009 12:05
Not to sure about Preists Leap. Looked like getting involved making the final turn but stopped as if shot after 2-out. Not to sure if that was just the weight. He’s by Luso who also sired Hear The Echo but it looked like his stamina gave way. Philip Enrights comments were interesting:
“He gave me a great ride and jumped well. I thought I would go very close jumping the second-last, but he got very tired. I had to use him a bit more than I would have liked early on because of the ground.”
So with a little bit of improvement, 6lb off his back and perhaps some slower ground, he wouldnt be too far away.
It wouldn’t take a massive leap of faith, is all im saying. Im sitting on my dollar bills for now, but I wouldnt be surprised if he turns up again next year and in good form.
#8
August 12th, 2009 17:17
One horse that I like if it’s soft ground is Parson’s Pistol.
Quote from Nick Mordin…
“PARSONS PISTOL HAS TREMENDOUS STAMINA
Last season PARSONS PISTOL (38) showed that he has few equals when it comes to slogging through mud at a marathon distance off a searching early pace. And he demonstrated this again when ploughing through the sludge to take a very strongly run three mile Grade 2 novice chase at Naas. Third placed CHIRAAZ (23) had gone off so strongly that basically everything was stopping in the last quarter mile, even Parson Pistol.
I’d be wary of opposing Parsons Pistol on genuinely soft or heavy ground over three miles plus in future, especially when there’s a big enough field to ensure a strong early pace. His obvious target just has to be the Irish Grand National. If it came up soft for that race he’d be very interesting.”
He’s never run a chase on G ground and has twice failed at Cheltenham on G/S but I’ll be following him closely and wouldn’t rule him out of running in GN next year, especially if he can perform on G/S or G ground (perhaps 2011 more likely, with 2010 Irish GN the target).
His RPR of 149 is very interesting for a horse rated 136 and with Paul Carberry likely to ride for Noel Meade in his next big race. A Grade 2 win in the bag suggests that he has a touch of class.
#9
August 12th, 2009 23:20
Silver Birch was going really well when he came down this year. I assume he won’t be running next year because of his age.
#10
August 21st, 2009 12:02
I think many of the Irish horses were unfairly treated in 2009 but I think the handicapper was conscious of easy victories by Monty’s Pass, Numbersixvalverde and Hedgehunter and, I suspect, he underestimated the ability of Mon Mome, Comply Or Die etc, to compete against the Irish on their official OR’s and so tried to balance things up.
I think early thoughts about Preists Leap are correct. Seemed to the form he ran out of puff in Irish National and at Aintree.
Top Irish horse for 2010? Church Island fits the stats. 2009 was the first National since 1975 that the first four places were filled by horses carrying 11st plus. If this entices more Gold Cup types to run in 2010 and top weight is around 160 OR then Snowy Morning – with a 2nd or 3rd in Hennessey at Newbury along the way! -
has a massive chance.
#11
August 22nd, 2009 19:27
The fact of the first four home carrying 11 stone or more since 1975 is an interesting one Crisp 73. I had pointed it out in another thread just after 2009 National, but I had not realized the length of time passed between events. Of course the winner was still confined to within 12 pounds of the bottom weight (a stat I was unaware of at the time.)
I don’t think Denman will ever be entered (seriously) for this race but other top horses might and this might restore the National to its former glory.
#12
August 27th, 2009 21:39
Church Island running in wales tomorrow; should be interesting.
#13
August 28th, 2009 10:29
Neil, fellow bloggers, correction to previous post. The last time all four placed horses carried 11st was 1950, not 1975.
#14
August 28th, 2009 14:02
Thanks for that Crisp.
#15
August 28th, 2009 22:38
In 1950 and also in rummy’s days it used to be about survival on the first circuit, nowadays its much more a true staying race. I think that the trainers are realising this also, because my analysis of each year’s national shows this. It could be pure chance that the first four home carried eleven stone or more or it might be a sign that better class staying horses are being entered.
#16
August 29th, 2009 17:33
Church Island I don’t think will be winning for the emerald isle. Unless that was not his true running at Ffos Las.
#17
August 31st, 2009 10:08
I tend to agree but he was held up rather than allowed to run from the front so they might be “saving him for another day”
#18
September 8th, 2009 08:46
Kerry National at Listowel next Wednesday and those entered at the moment include possible National candidates:
Church Island
Casey Jones
Bothar Na
Himalayan Trail
Royal County Star
Also of interest is that Hoo La Baloo, Backstage and Star of Germany have all been entered. They all opposed in a decent race won by the latter at Newton Abbot a few weeks ago and Backstage and Hoo La Baloo then raced each other again at Ffos Las. At Newton Abbot the horses were running off marks as follows: Hoo La Baloo (143), Backstage (137), Star of Germany (129), but revised marks are as follows: Backstage (148), Hoo La Baloo (143) and Star of Germany (137). If they all turn up it should be an interesting contest as Backstage is the highest rated of any entry so would have top weight.
#19
September 10th, 2009 18:20
Does anyone have any useful stats on the Kerry National, please?
#20
September 10th, 2009 22:41
Did some 10-year research before the race last year but have added the 2008 renewal to these stats:
Winning ages – 6(1), 7(3), 8(4), 9(3)
ORs – Last 11 winners rated between 111 – 135, with 6 of those rated 120-130.
Winning weight – weight carried ranges between 9-0 and 12-0!!
Favs – No winners and only 4 placed in last 11 renewals.
Form of last outing – 0,1,1,2,1,3,4,1,U,1,5
Days since last outing – This is interesting. 2 of the last 11 winners had a prep run in early Sept and another 7 had an outing in August. The other 2 winners had runs in July and June.
Just had a quick look through and the following caught my attention:
Knock On The Head
Anothercoppercoast
Line Ball
Changing Course
Not a race I will get involved in massively but if any of those are an e/w price I might have a dabble.
#21
September 19th, 2009 19:04
Arbor Suprmeme has just been entered into the betfair betting market, are the dosage indexes available for this one. Has plenty of stamina for a young horse, could be a year early for the national i feel though
#22
September 21st, 2009 21:35
My Irish shortlist is very similar to The Stayer’s – Black Apalachi, One Cool Cookie, Snowy Morning of the higher weighted horses and Church Island, Arbor Supreme and Offshore Account of those with a lower weight.
I couldn’t back Offshore Account last year but feel that he ran an incredible race seeing as it was only his first chase start for nearly 18 months – he cannot have been properly fit and yet was bang there with 2 fences left and although weakening still completed the course.
I am slightly concerned by the Strong Gale on the dam’s side but will be keeping an eye on him this season as he looks very well-handicapped (Hennessy perhaps).
#23
September 23rd, 2009 01:37
Anyone have views on One Cool Cookie’s pedigree?
Looks pretty good to me = 3-1-6-4-2; 0.78; -0.06
Sire = Old Vic (Vimy influence same as Busted; sire of Comply Or Die)
Dam influences = Montelimar (sire of Monty’s Pass & Hedgehunter) & Vulgan (sire of Gay Trip, dam influence in Corbiere, West Tip, Royal Athlete & Numbersixvalverde)
Was allotted 153 last year but didn’t take part – same rating given to other Irish horses = Black Apalachi, Presists Leap & Hear The Echo
Now rating is down to 143
#24
September 23rd, 2009 19:45
Arbor Supreme Dosage – 4-1-3-4-4(16)/0.68/-0.19
looks like a contender
One Cool Cookie – Tasty lookin Dosage figures I would say (no pun intended there!)
A majority of the Grand National Trials are also put under the spotlight in my book. Not long till release date now….
#25
September 23rd, 2009 19:47
Arbor Supreme also has Busted in his bloodline, this was highlighted as a positive on one of the other threads.
#26
September 26th, 2009 09:34
A horse that I was very sweet on for the National last year was Roll Along; sadly he didn’t run mainly because of his Gold Cup exertions [sp]; not sure what the plans are for him this year, but I think he has a good staying pedigree [needs a good gap between races as well]. Not sure who he’s with this year, either.
#27
September 26th, 2009 09:38
One Cool Cookie will be the perfect age next year, but not sure about his handicap rating; may be a tad high [was he a bit of a dodgy jumper a while ago?].
#28
September 26th, 2009 11:07
Charlie Swan has stated that Offshore Account and Oodachee will be trained for the National
He wasn’t happy that One Cool Cookie was allotted 153 for this year’s race
With Denman being trained for the Gold Cup, unless Madison Du Berlais shows up (and he could easily go for the Aintree Bowl again instead), it looks as though Mon Mome might be top weight off around 161 (Venetias Williams has said that he will go for it again)
This might mean that One Cool Cookie will have >11’0 because once the handicapper has given an Aintree rating he seldom drops it by very much (Butler’s Cabin was OR 135 but GN rated 147 – logic says that he will be lower this year but since when have logic and GN ratings joined forces?)