Welsh National 2008: Comments/Research/Tips
In just over a week the Welsh National takes place at Chepstow and this race is not only one of the highlights of the National Hunt Season but it has often proved to be an excellent trial race for the Aintree Grand National itself.
A whole swathe of horses have taken part in the Welsh National and then gone on to glory at Aintree in subsequent years and Grand National winners Earth Summit and Silver Birch have actually won both races. For a full analysis of the history of Welsh National runners in the Grand National follow this link to another page on Grand National Guide:
http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/welsh-national-form.php
But what of this year?
A large number of horses entered at Chepstow look likely (at this stage) to head for Aintree with the likes of Mon Mome, Halcon Genelardais, High Chimes, Notre Pere, Miko De Beauchene, Joe Lively, Character Building and Darkness figuring in both sets of prices.
Let us know who you fancy for this year’s Welsh National and if you think they can go on to win the Grand National at Aintree
This post has 14 comments
#1
December 19th, 2008 14:23
First thing to say regarding trends for me is hte issue or the weights.
I would not rule any of them out on the basis of weight this year. Halcon has showed he can lump 11_12 round anywhere on any ground whatever the competition. Next in the weights are the 11_03 brigade. Halcon won in 2006 carrying this much, so automatically ruling a horse out with 11_03 might be a bit foolish.
HOWEVER, if you are looking for trends in the weights, since Master Oats won in 1994, 10/11 winners have carried less than 10_13. In fact, 8/10 winners have carried 10_05 or less to victory.
This year I would guestimate there will only be 12 horses or thereabouts carrying 10_05 or less, so the winner is perhaps most likely to come from this batch.
From that group, Darkness, Mon Mome and High Chimes all look bang on for a cracking run. One at a bigger price who I think could go well is Wild Cane Ridge.
What do you think guys?
Some other quick stats for you;
11/11 STATS
Winners aged 6-9
Won a chase over 24f or further
Either 1 or 2 season runs
At least 4 chase runs
Last run between 20-46 days.
Interestingly 7 of the last 10 winners have previously won at Chepstow as well, and the other 4 had never run at the track before.
#2
December 20th, 2008 12:02
Been thru the stats on the race and MON MOME looks a E-W steal.Also i really fancy P HOBBS two horses in the ladbroke hurdle..PRINCE TAIME & BELCANTISTA Paddy Power paying on 1st 5.
#3
December 22nd, 2008 17:54
28 left in the welsh national now after 2day …. potential aintree contenders still engaged for sat are joe lively,always waining,darkness ,mon mome, high chimes plus the classier topweights halcon gen and miko de beauch – character building has been scratched
#4
December 22nd, 2008 19:13
Possible impact on GN 2009:
Darkness OR 143 on my current short list, if he runs in GN? Available now at 50/1) – fine but up to 4 points lower would be great (this could be the Dark horse!!). I find this horse very interesting and one to keep an eye on.
High Chimes OR 140 – good but we need a good RPR of 144 or better and he would then be on my short list (but needs to keep his 140 OR!)
Always Waining OR 147 (a bit high) needs to lose a few points (but wrong age of 7)
Anyway the picture will become clearer soon.
#5
December 22nd, 2008 23:49
Mon Mome and Air Force One IN E-W singles and a E-W double should help pay for christmas.AFO has never been out of the 1st 3 when it has run left handed and you have to ask questions about KS & VPU.Anyone agree?
#6
December 23rd, 2008 15:48
I think I’m going with the favourite, Nenuphar Collonges, for this race. Seems to meet all the trends and should run a big race.
#7
December 23rd, 2008 15:52
Never won at Chepstow though (7/10) and never placed in a C1 Chase (8/10)
Granted they are not nailed on trends, but ones to overcome nonetheless.
I think there is some cracking ew value in this race. Beat the Boys, Cornish Sett and Darkness all look set for big big runs in my eyes, and at 25/1 and upwards, look fantastic ew value.
#8
December 23rd, 2008 19:42
Anybody reckon Glasker mill could run a good race at a big price? I reckon 40/1 is a huge price providing it stays on its feet!
#9
December 26th, 2008 12:28
Darkness , High Chimes and Gypsy George all declared for Chepstow tomorrow – lets hope it beats the predicted frost … im hoping at least one of them places 2nd or 3rd… if none of them are in the mix tomorrow i think it would be fair to draw a line through their names . however lets be posisitve and hope they can run a big race .. i would have to say that if they dont then my attention will turn to a couple of the irish horses and butlers cabin…. merry xmas all ……
#10
December 27th, 2008 00:06
Just checked Odds Checker.com
Only a two horse race acording to Betfair price trends:
Nenuphar Collonges now 27/5 (was 28/5 and previously 29/5). BLUE 4* (never won at Chepstow, 7/10 trend)
Mon Mome now 28/5 (was 29/5 and previously 6/1 and 31/5). BLUE. 5* (2nd in 2006 and has won Class 1 chase)
Officier De Reserve now 19/2 (was 10/1). BLUE
High Chimes now 23/2 (gone out from 11/1 and 21/2). RED
Notre Pere now 23/2 (was 12/1 and previously 25/2). RED
Halcon Genelardais now 25/2 (gone out from 12/1). NEGETIVE
So its two against the field on Betfair price trends (blue – going down in price on eve of race):
1. Mon Mome
2. Nenuphar Collonges
Reserve: Officier De Reserve
I’ve also got a small ante-post bet on Halcon Genelardais who will run a good race but the weight will tell against him at the end of the race I think.
#11
December 27th, 2008 13:13
The Welsh National is always one of my favourite races of the year and this year looks to be a really high quality renewal.
It looks a really tricky race to call but like Texas Pete I took a little of the 40/1 about Glasker Mill earlier in the week as I think this horse was in the process of running a very big race last time out when hampered and has the potential to rate more highly.
Of the more fancied runners I’m a big fan of Mon Mome and Notre Pere and both have been kind to me recently but I fear that they may not be that well handicapped now. Halcon Genelardais has always to be respected but may find one or two with less weight who manage to get past him. Officer De Reserve and High Chimes look the most likey of the fancied runners to me and the Nicholls runner looked like he could have gone very close in the Troytown and if the breathing operation has worked could prove hard to beat.
Good luck to all and look out for an analysis thread later on where we can look at how the race panned out and the likely effect on the National itself.
#12
December 27th, 2008 14:55
I’m never around for this christmas fun usually, getting my first look at this course! lovely countryside and big rolling hills. I’ve already had a semi blind bet though! gone for the dark horse prospect for the big one, Darkness and outsider the refreshed Cornish Sett [well he one for me last time]Like systemsman think Halcon will run well as usual but something will go past with less weight. I like Mon mone too and Joe Lively ran well last time.Have enjoyed reading all the speculations that have been going on for the big one, this will be interesting to watch.Good luck guys
#13
December 27th, 2008 15:46
That was great! think cornish sett is new dark horse [is he in the nat?] not impressed with Darkness, didn’t notice High Chimes at all. My quick analysis is Joe Lively can’t go 4m, Cornish can!!! he is a refreshed new horse. Only problem would be coming from well back he may hit traffic problems, is he running in the big one this year?
#14
December 27th, 2008 23:22
“Notre Pere now 23/2 (was 12/1 and previously 25/2). RED”
Now if only Notre Pere had been Blue last night instead of Red on Betfair!!!!!!! (still the trend was down from 25/2 to 23/2 and I should have taken more note of this)