Summer National at Uttoxeter 2008
June 28th, 2008The Summer National at Uttoxeter is an oasis for jumps fans in a sea of flat racing and, more importantly for us, it is an early indication of some of the horses that might end up at Aintree if not this year then certainly at some point in the future.
Previous winners in the Grand National
Previous winners of the Summer National Mckelvey, Take The Stand and Jurancon have all been well fancied for the Grand National itself predominantly as they had proved their stamina in this race. As we all know Mckelvey ran a huge race in 2007 with injury possibly preventing him for getting up to beat Silver Birch.
So, let’s look at the previous winners at Uttoxeter:
2000 Berlin Blue OR110 7-10-5 11/2 13 ran 26k - value of race
2002 Stormez OR133 5-11-8 11/2 14 ran 32k
2003 Jurancon OR122 6-10-10 9/1 13 ran 35k
2004 Take The Stand OR138 8-11-12 14/1 16 ran 44k
2005 Rheindross OR117 10-10-3 25/1 16 ran 44k
2006 Mckelvey OR130 7-10-10 11/2 15 ran 45k
2007 Kock De La Vesvre OR123 9-10-9 5/1J 11ran 40k
Who will win at Uttoxeter in 2008?
With only seven years to go on we need to be a bit creative with our interpretation of any prospective trends so I will suggest that for various reasons the wins of Berlin Blue and Take The Stand could be left out of the equation when considering the qualities required for the winner in 2008.
The win of Berlin Blue in 2000 was when the race was worth much less than its value today and in the intervening years and is probably not a true reflection of the quality of horse that runs in the race. Take The Stand’s win off 138 and with 11st 12lb was probably a bit of a freak. Given that he ended up running second in the Gold Cup he was entitled to win even with the big weight but as a rule I would be doubtful about big weights in marathon chases. If we do leave these horses out of the equation then the remaining four winners have had an official rating of between 117 and 133.
This only really gets rid of the top four in the weights but with no horse winning older than 10 years old we could also eliminate Philson Run, Chabrimal Minster, Harlov and Take The Stand.
Our Selection
So from an original 16 we have 8 left to consider and out of those the one that interests me the most is Mr Ed. I have long thought that this former good flat horse is capable of winning a decentish handicap over fences but the main requirement for him appears to be good to firm ground and he has received these underfoot conditions very rarely in his career over fences. He has tons of weight in hand on better fancied horses such as Forty Acers and Rackalackey from previous defeats where they have since gone up in the weights and whilst he may appear the least fancied of the Bowen quartet I think he looks a nice each way bet.
Let us know who you fancy and we will come back on after the race and have a look at it from an Aintree perspective as well as discuss where the money went!
Pav Says:
June 28th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
I quite like the look of Surface To Air. A young progressive horse, with a good jumping record and is proven over longer distances. One to keep an eye on if he does well in this race.
rammy Says:
June 29th, 2008 at 10:39 am
I also like Mr Ed in fact i have backed him e-w but i do fear Chabrimal Minster.Its just like the old days sorting through these instead of flat races.
rammy Says:
June 29th, 2008 at 7:10 pm
nice one pav, ran well didn’t he.thought chabrimal minster also ran well till falling.hope you had some cash on sta.
admin Says:
June 29th, 2008 at 11:18 pm
Yes, well done Pav. Great shout with Surface To Air. I was a bit worried about the forecast good to firm ground for him but the rains came and this probably aided his cause but he won with plenty in hand. He looks like a young chaser with a future and with a rise in the weights assured after this win he could come into the Grand National reckoning. He’ll probably go up to the low 140s after this and that should be enough to see him get a place at Aintree if connections want to go down that route but as he is only 7 and this was only his fourth race over fences his owner and trainer may want to wait another year for such targets. He looks a a horse to keep an eye on though.
Our selection Mr Ed ran well enough but the rain probably didn’t help his cause and perhaps he just isn’t up to this sort of grade over the big obstacles.
As for the others Out The Black ran a nice first race over a marathon trip and Chabrimal Minster could have posed a threat when he came down. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Richard Ford’s horse in one of pre Christmas Aintree races to see how he gets on over the big fences.
Not sure how many of the others could possibly ever be involved at Aintree but it was great to see a competitive jump race after all this flat stuff!
Pav Says:
July 1st, 2008 at 7:41 am
Although S to A will be 8 by next year’s GN, I agree that he may be too inexperienced. I think the 2010 race should be his target if he doesn’t go too high in the weights.
I’m coming to the conclusion that horses should be ignored in the GN until they are 9. 9 and 10 year olds have dominated in recent years and Cloudy Lane’s run seems to add fuel to this theory.
admin Says:
July 7th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
I see that Coral appear to be the only fixed odds firm to put up a quote after Surface To Air’s victory in the Summer National. 40/1 looks a bit skinny to me but 50+ is available on Betfair.
Jimmy Boy Says:
July 8th, 2008 at 10:00 am
Admin, are there going to be any more previews on possible National contenders in 2009?
I asked in another thread if Character Building could be one of the next couple/few.
Thanks
admin Says:
July 31st, 2008 at 3:54 pm
Hi Jimmy Boy,
Yes, sorry for the delay, I had some leave to take here in admin HQ but will defintely be doing another preview of National contenders this week and will look at Character Building in full detail.
If you (or anyone else) has any other contenders you would like us to flag up then please let us know and we hope to get through most of the remaining prominent horses in the betting in the next couple of weeks.
We will review the likely runners regularly and any new entrants into the market will be looked in some detail.
Jimmy Boy Says:
August 12th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
Thanks a lot for your overview admin. Interesting stuff