Comments on: Scottish National 2008: Race Analysis

By: Brody

Brody — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 01:18:09 +0000

Err yeah Sandown is the finale of the season.

And yeah Iris ran a good race for me, jockey didn’t really keep him close enough to the pace and probably gave him too much to do at the end, still if you will put a claimer on-board gotta live with the odd error.

By: kj

kj — Sun, 27 Apr 2008 17:30:12 +0000

oh dear sorry to hear about bewleys Brody
I completely missed the race been too busy
was going to have a bet on old Royal Auclair
lucky for me it didn’t win really
I did think that the Scottish winner Iris
would run well too unlike many of you guys?!
saw a recording of the end of the race
looked like he flew home think he may be one for the future too surely!?
Any more good hunt races left?
I could do with something enjoyable after this weekend believe me, please don’t tell me the jumps are all over again NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

By: Brody

Brody — Sun, 27 Apr 2008 11:42:11 +0000

Was very worried to see poor Bewley’s break down like that, but seems he should be okay in the long term and going into a well earned retirement.

Betting wise had 2pts E/W on Hoo La Baloo and Racing Demon, ended up just over even so not bad. Didn’t even look twice at Monkey, top quality horse but really thought he’d gone at the game and was past his best. Also nice to see an old friend in Royal Auclair still cutting it at a high level shame I didn’t back him this time.

By: wacky

wacky — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 15:09:03 +0000

Roll on 4th april 2009.That was rubbish today!!!

By: wacky

wacky — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 11:08:17 +0000

Royal County Star & Caribou both look good e-w bets for me today.

By: Systems Man

Systems Man — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 10:32:21 +0000

My bet today on Sandown Gold Cup.

Royal County Star 3.5 pts to win at 5/1 (Lad)or better
Ungaro 2.5 pts to win at 15/2 (Coral) or better
Lothian Falcon 1 pt to win at 9/1 (Coral) or better - stake cover bet
Bewleys Berry 1 pt to win at 12/1 (Coral) or better - stake cover bet.

Total staked 8 pts - with a good profit if RCS or Ungaro wins.

Iris de Balme - no way, but its keeping up the prices on the other good runnners! Looks like Gammers and I agree.

By: wacky

wacky — Sat, 26 Apr 2008 07:40:07 +0000

Just watched the Morning Line and Tanya pointed out that no jockey claiming 5lbs or more has won the race in the last 20yrs and only 1 horse has won with a 3lb claimer.What do you think about that guys? Lump on Medicine Path its won on good to firm and Major Cad won’t stay!!

By: Gammers

Gammers — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 10:05:25 +0000

I’ve had a bit of a detailed look, and from the 19 runners that seem to be confirmed (although having difficulty getting the info) we have 5 possibles on the 20 year trends being, Royal County Star, Iris de Balme, Ungaro, Lothian Falcon and Bewleys Berry.

Agree with Systems that IdB completing the double a year after Hot Weld is unlikely, but handicap wise IdB is carrying a nominal 10′0 but the jockey has a 7lb allowance. On Ayr form should be carrying 10′4, so seems well in.

As we know from GN2008 the handicap does have a huge part to play as the three well in horses there were CoD, Snowy and Cloudy Lane.

Having talked IdB up, personally my money will still be on RCS.

Bookies have this one spot on I’m afraid.

By: Systems Man

Systems Man — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:15:45 +0000

Sandwon Gold Cup Saturday:
My short list on best trends (the bookies have got this one correct)

1. Ungaro*
2. Royal County Star *
+
3. Patsy Hall* (best value IF it runs - you need to wait and see - many bookies do not have a price on oddschecker.com - you may have to wait till Saturday to be sure).
* - has secret trend required to win for last 10 years (last weeks SN winner Iris De Balme at 66/1 also had it).

I dont think Iris De Balme will figure in it (two years in a row SN and Sandown Gold Cup double - I dont think so!). The winner lies between (it wont be another Scottish National I think!):
TOP WEIGHT
Ungaro 10.10 OR 150
BOTTOM WEIGHT
Royal County Star 10.00 OR 140

I cant say I have studied this race in fine detail as I am ploting up something big in May to make ‘loads of money’ if I get it right so have been somewhat distracted.

By: kj

kj — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 01:06:20 +0000

yep, statistically speaking that is correct. Any horse that wins or is placed in the GN can’t win ever again.
That’s why I want another aintree national!!!
for all those consequently weighted out of contention! its only fair that these specialists get another chance
at aintree glory off an even mark.
Why not? we have the enthusiasm! lets campaign for it
Sandown gold cup on saturday looks an interesting mix,
have to look into it tmw