Scottish National 2008: Race Analysis
April 10th, 2008The Scottish National 2008 will be the first in our series of races where we will open up a thread for all to discuss the the individual merits of the race itself and any potential bearing it may have on the 2009 Grand National
Previous Winners
A good place to start is to look at the basic details of the last ten previous winners:
Scottish National Winners/Age/Weight/SP/Official Rating
2007 Hot Weld 8-9-9 14/1 124
2006 Run For Paddy 10-10-2 33/1 135
2005 Joe’s Edge 8-10-0 (5oh) 20/1 132
2004 Grey Abbey 10-11-12 12/1 148
2003 Ryalux 10-10-5 15/2 140
2002 Take Control 8-10-6 20/1 140
2001 Gingembre 7-11-2 12/1 137
2000 Paris Pike 8-11-0 5/1JF 143
1999 Young Kenny 8-11-10 5/2F 140
1998 Baronet 8-10-0 (3oh) 7/1 133
Analysis
The victory of Hot Weld was something of a trend breaker last year in that he did not have a top five finish last time out and had a low official rating. If we look upon Hot Weld as a one off it leaves these basic requirements:
Aged 7-10 (10/10)
Official Rating 132-148 (9/10)
Finished in top 5 on last outing (9/10)
In addition no horse that has run in that seasons Grand National has gone on to win the Scottish National so it would appear we can discount any horse who lines up after a trip round the Grand National fences. We can also discount those horses with a poor jumping record as only 2001 winner Gingembre had a record that included more than two falls or unseats.
Stamina will also be a huge consideration and nine out of the last ten winners had demonstrated winning form over at least 3 miles.
So add in:
No more than two falls or unseats (9/10)
Stamina proven at three miles (9/10)
And it looks also safe to remove any horse following on from Aintree.By my reckoning this leaves a shortlist of:
Himalayan Trail
Old Benny
Royal County Star
Boychuk
Newbay Prop
The two that appeal to me most out of those are Midlands Grand National winner Himalayan Trail who would be aiming to complete the same double as Young Kenny and Philip Hobbs’ Boychuk. The former’s claims are more obvious but Boychuk’s recent run at Aintree could be misleading as I thought he was staying on again at the finish whereas the RP comment is ‘weakened after three out’.
Hobbs has obviously targeted this race in recent years with Parsons Legacy 3rd in 2007, Double Honour 4th in 2005 and Gunther McBride favourite for the race and booked for a place at least when falling in 2003. I wouldn’t be surprised if Boychuk puts in an improved performance in the Scottish National.
Are there any trends that you would add or take away from this list?
We will be looking at how the Scottish National has effected the Grand National over the years and how the 2008 may have a bearing on the Aintree race for 2009 in the days to come. Keep an eye out for those posts and keep us updated on your ideas on the Scottish National.
Systems Man Says:
April 10th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
Extra Scottish Grand National Trends
OR (always a vital factor)
132 to 148 9/10 trend (2007 OR 124[an odd year best ignored])
124 to 148 10/10 trend
TS
114 mimimum 10/10 trend (2007 TS 114 odd year out again, note however that in 1997 , 11years ago it was TS 110! so a low TS is possible)
127 to 159 9/10 trend
AGE
8 to 10 9/10 trend
7 to 10 10/10 trend
Prep Races
3 to 8 10/10
1, 2nd or 3rd this season 9/10 trend (2007 again was odd year out when winner was 6th in best prep run)
Chase wins (any kind)- min of 2 10/10 trend
Class 1 or 2 Chase win (any kind at any time) 8/10 trend
or
Class 1 or 2 Chase win or 2nd in Class 1 or 2 Chase (any kind at any time)10/10 trend
* Plus special secret factor I cant disclose which applies to all the last 10 winners.
Good short list Admin.
Will post my short list soon. I have the following curently. I have others on your own short list I still need to check.
Current Weights
Himilayan Trail
Old Benny
+ if weights go up
King Harold (will look good if weights go up)
Systems Man Says:
April 10th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
Sorry Admin I note you have already included OO.
I meant to add this:
RPR (Racing Post Rating)
134 to 157 9/10 trend
134 to 163 10/10 trend (2004 best RPR 163 odd one out)
Gammers Says:
April 10th, 2008 at 11:57 pm
Note of caution on ages; 3 winners age 11 or above in the last 20 years.
One to add in tho is that all of the last 20 winners have been placed or better over 25f and longer (16/20 27f or longer). 19/20 had run in at least 6 chases (of any kind) previously.
Yet to apply the trends to the entries - will wait until next week.
Systems Man Says:
April 11th, 2008 at 11:06 am
For an early price. This is not a complet work yet I have just looked at most of the leading runners. Will need to do again when we know who is running next week but for what its worth here is my trends list.
Maximum Point - 27 (9 trends with up to 3 points each)
** = Has the secret factor in full
* = has some of the secret factor
Current Weights
1. Himalayan Trail 27** (won over 34f)
2. Old Benny 25** (won over 32f)
3. King Harold 24** (won over 32f)
4.Royal County Star 24** (won over 24f, placed over 29f)
OTHERS
5. Leading Man 23* (won over 25f)
6. Lothian Falcon 23* (won over 26f)
IF weights go up eithe 8lbs or 14lbs this is the new list;
1. Himalayan Trail 26**
2. King Harold 26**
3. Leading Man 26*
4. Lothian Falcon 26*
OTHERS
5. Old Benny 24**
6. Newbury Prop 24**
Note: There are some runners I have still to assess.
Gammers is right “One to add in tho is that all of the last 20 winners have been placed or better over 25f and longer (16/20 27f or longer)”. This is one of the trends I have used in the list above.
Hope this helps.
Miinnehoma Says:
April 11th, 2008 at 10:48 pm
I think the lotto would be easier than this race.
I like King Harald and as a wild card Celestial Gold.
8/10 had course experience.
3/10 ran in the race before - 3rd., 4th. and 9th.
5/10 had run at 33f. before -2 winners, a 3rd. 4th.and 9th.
4/10 ran in a Hennessy - 2nd., 3rd., 7th. and fell @ 12/1.
If Hot Weld is odd, have a close look at Joes Edge. Only 2nd. in one attempt at 25f in a novice chase with only 3 runners - beaten 30+ lengths.
texas pete Says:
April 12th, 2008 at 8:16 pm
I think old benny should be should be the market leader judging by his last run and that’s who my money’s on. i think he’d like it soft or good to soft and going by the weather up here at the mo i’d be very surprised if that’s not what it is.i got him at 12s earlier in the week 10s now. he won’t be that on the day
Sneak Says:
April 13th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
I have noticed that Stan James does not have Royal County Star listed as a potential runner, but William Hill does - does this mean the horse is not running?
Systems Man Says:
April 13th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Looks like the weights will not change as top weight Halcon Genelardais 11.12 is a runner according to the Sunday Mail. So I think you can discount anything under 9.07 (below King Harold on 9.07 - 9.09 minimum weight 11/11 trend). This should help us sort the men form the boys!
My top two still looking good if they run (HT wont run if its too soft according to trainer!)
1. Himalayan Trail 27** (won over 34f)
2. Old Benny 25** (won over 32f)
Note of caution:(from Miinnehoma) 8/10 had course experience - neithe HT or OB have run at AYR but nor did the other 20% who won in the last 10years.
I will now check out some of the top weights as Halcon Genelardais has run at Ayr (5th in 2006 SN when his RPR best was only 154 its now 173!) and must have a chance or a place or better.
Systems Man Says:
April 13th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
My short list now reads
Current Weights
1. Himalayan Trail 27** (won over 34f)
2. Wild Cane Suger 24 to 27** (it depends on whether you give no points for distance or all three - won at 20f, 4th at 29f,2nd at 24×2f). LOves Ayr and runs on HY and Sft!
3. Old Benny 25** (won over 32f)
4. King Harold 24** (won over 32f)
5.Royal County Star 24** (won over 24f, placed over 29f)
The OR of some heavy weights like Halcon Genelardais OR 169 is too high (OR 124 to 148 10/10 trend). I suggest we reject all above Opera Mundi OR 150.
The winner lies between
Opera Mundi 10.07 OR 150
AND
Without A Doubt 9.03 OR 132
OR as low as (but unlikely)
Brooklyn Breeze 8.09 OR 124
Miinnehoma Says:
April 13th, 2008 at 11:53 pm
re- Halcon,
4/20 top wts. have won on gd.,gd/sft. and soft.
‘04 11-12 @12/1 on g/s. 28rns. OR 148-122.
‘99 11-10 @5/2F on sft.15rns. OR 140-116.
‘97 11-10 @16/1 on gd.17rns. OR 150-118.
‘93 11-10 @6/1 on gd.21rns. OR 167-143.
Miinnehoma Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 4:17 am
Halcon has a 5 lb. pull with Miko for the Hd. 2nd. in Welsh National. In that race Halcon gave Over The Creek 28 lb. and 16L. beating, so where does that leave Old Benny.
Old Benny has 4 chase runs with 1 win. Both a new low for 10 and 20 yr. trends. Bless him.
Thaimark Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 5:30 am
Right Minnehoma, Old Benny is held by Halcon and Mico, more so by the first mentioned. Looking past these two, I’m siding with Himalayan Trial (27/27) - it powered home in the Midlands National with a smilar weight which looks like a copy of Comply’s preparation before winning the GN. Can anybody tell me when the weights for Scottish National were announced?
Texas Pete Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
Himalayan Trail,Lothian Falcon and Royal County Star are all non-runners also the clerk of the course says on RP web-site “we think the ground will definately be on the SOFT side”.That’ll suit Old Benny,Miko and Halcon.My money’s on Old Benny!
Systems Man Says:
April 14th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
Lost Himalayan Trail (I did warn this was possible and my own money was on it),Royal County Star, Lothian Falcon and King Harold.
I have decided not to invest in this race with 3 from 5 of my key trend horses missing.
The whole think depends on wether top weights or low weights get it - I go for low weight so:
1. Wild Cane Suger 24 to 27** (it depends on whether you give no points for distance or all three - won at 20f, 4th at 29f,2nd at 24×2f). LOves Ayr and runs on HY and Sft!
2. Old Benny 25** (won over 32f)
And I cant be bothered to work out any more.
Good luck to all who can work out this puzzle.
Showlad Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 9:10 am
Scottish national is a puzzle - but DON’T GIVE UP SYSTEMS MAN,WACKY AND ALL - HELP US OUT WITH UR BEST ESTIMATE - PLS!!!!
Even if this is a stats nightmare, pls give it ur best shot!
SILVER BIRCH Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
Hi folks - i think the most interesting aspect around ayr on saturday centres around the ground not the weights…. if indeed we get a heavy or soft ground scottish national which hasnt happened for donkeys ages then it could make things very interesting - ayr takes some getting in heavy ground believe u me and ive seen horses in tears at the end of races here over 3m let alone 4 ..
The last time i remember it being this soft brave old moorcroft boy bravely stole the show - however the interesting thing was their position in the handicap
1st - moorcroft boy - 10lbs out the handicap
2nd - general wolfe - 9lbs out the handicap
3 - arthurs minstrel - 8lbs out the nadicap
4 - Lo stregone - in the handicap
5 - abercromy chief - 26lbs out the handicap
So dont throw the towel in yet folks if ur horse is out the handicap - on heavy ground - i recon anything currently down to 9st-4 still has a chance
rocky again! Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
does anyone know if butlers cabin is running
Miinnehoma Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 4:16 am
Butlers Cabin will only run if the going is good or g/s. It seems that Celestial and Vodka are out - what a race.
Starting to look like another duel between Halcon and Miko with Opera and Benny trying to muscle in. Mon Mome and Philson Run will be looking for a place.
wacky Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 10:50 pm
KJ I’ve just worked out your theory on how to back the national winner. Back at least 10 horses in the races and cover 25% of the field and you wander why i think some people need help!!Bookies love people like you so no wander you need our help to find the winner!!!!Telling everyone that im a big head when you don’t have a clue about who i am and then you go down the pub and tell everyone you have backed the winner and placed horses.(didn’t tell them how many you backed)GOODBYE
Showlad Says:
April 16th, 2008 at 11:25 pm
Wacky, give us ur thoughts on the Scottish National, even if the weights etc make it difficult, just a vague outline would be great
Think the lightly raced Osmosses could come good…
Grand National King Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
There is little quality in the race.
My bets - Miko and Old Benny to win. The Bookies have got it spot in making these 2 favourites. I cant see any other horse winning except Halcon who will need to be at his best to overcome his massive weight handicap.
Mon Mome for a place.
rammy Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
hi, can anyone of the better qualified lads amongst you tell me if
‘in the loop’ has any chance as i have just come back from ireland and heard his name being bullishly used several times.stop the bickering lads and let the few who know what they are talking about get on and help us novices, i for one learnt so much off wacky, systems man, minnihomma etc from the national and will always be in there debt.love the sport and love learning more so stop the scoring of points as we all know who is pucker and who not.
Systems Man Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
This is a difficult race to call. Putting aside the trends for a moment I am inlclined to agree with Miinnehoma “Starting to look like another duel between Halcon and Miko with Opera and Benny trying to muscle in”.
Halcon staying in has made this a different type of race. Old Benny and Wild Cane Suger are the trend horses but for me having had another look i think its Halcon or Miko, either could win.
wacky Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
I will post my horses to back and to lay on saturday morning as i think the going is a major factor as this isn’t such a strong stats race.
Comply or Eat Pie Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 7:48 pm
Wild Cane Ridge, course form, likes it soft, 14-1 worth a shot?
Showlad Says:
April 17th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Thanks Wacky. Rain tonight and 2mo morn forecast for Ayr.
Miinnehoma Says:
April 18th, 2008 at 4:39 am
In The Loop -
His long handicap of 7-11 and all his low ratings give him a very slim chance. He is 31 lbs out of the handicap. In the last 20 yrs. the max o/h winner was 17 lbs out. This lad is almost twice that.
Now the good news -
The trainer said on thurs. that the handicapper overlooked his last race and so should be less than 31 lbs out, how much ?.
He’s a strange we horse, 10 yrs old with only 6 runs in his life, all chase runs with 2 wins. He’s had 4 prep runs, winning his last @ 26f., beating Dun Doire and Point Barrow at level wts. - not bad.
In Dec. he was 1 3/4 L. 2nd/19 to Agus A Vic, who was the Fav. for the foxhunters at Chelt.
His chase strike rate of 1st 2nd and 3rd in total V chase runs is a cracking 66%.
His parents Lord Americo and Buckskin mean he will love the distance and he has proved he will love the going.
Perhaps he is a 10 st. horse with false number plates.
A strange we horse for a strange we race @ 40/1.
wacky Says:
April 18th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Hope this helps find the WINNER? TEN YEAR TRENDS 1/ No winner aged 6,9 & 11 or older. 2/No winner with official rating over 150. 3/ No winner with 4 plus handicap wins.4/No winner with 1 or less chase wins.I think that knocks out the front 4 in the betting but i don’t think we should leave a 9yr old out on the stats.
wacky Says:
April 18th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
Taking into account the stats i’ve given above im left with 3 as had to drop some as hadn’t got enough wins over 3 miles to leave in. So its down to LEADING MAN,KILBEGGAN BLADE & FLINTOFF for me.If you are looking for placed horses then 4/13 horses officially rated over 150 have been placed. So MIKO DE BEAUCHENE & HALCON GENELARDAIS must have good chances of making the frame.These all should go on the heavy ground.
Gammers Says:
April 18th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
Based on my own stats analysis, my prediction is Miko de Beauchene to win. Not exactly going out on a limb I know; but there you go. Wild Cane Ridge, Mon Mome and Kilbeggan Blade all decent each way shouts.
Miinnehoma Says:
April 18th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
Halcon Genelardais
Miko De Beauchene
Flintoff
Openide
Leaning Tower of Caerfilli Says:
April 18th, 2008 at 9:19 pm
Ground drying out by all accounts and now likely to be good or good to soft at worst. Clerk of the course (Self) receiving a lot of flak for calling the ground well wrong and subsequently messing up the handicap.
Phil P Says:
April 19th, 2008 at 8:04 am
Morning line this morning suggests the ground is nearer to GOOD than anything else!!!
Time to recalculate me thinks!!
wacky Says:
April 19th, 2008 at 9:12 am
Im sticking with LEADING MAN as the ground drying out will be against most of the runners.Think that the 2 at the top of the handicap will struggle to give weight away on good ground so they are lays on the win market for me.
Systems Man Says:
April 19th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
“Morning line this morning suggests the ground is nearer to GOOD than anything else!!!”
And Himalayan Trail ducked (or was that chickened out) due to possible Heavy ground - what a shame!
Not a race to invest to much money this time round (this is my best advise).
A poor estimate at best but:
Miko De Beauchene
Wild Cane Suger
Old Benny
Systems Man Says:
April 19th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
Well not a trends year was it and it always felt a strange year with the weights and the gruond issues.
The winner 26lbs out of the handicap and won at 66/1! (I might add it did have the secret incredient that I cannot disclose). Only won 1 chase and a class 3. It looks like a race for low weighted horses at the moment but not one to put much money on in future.
Now the Sandown Bet 365 Gold Cup Chase on 26/4/08 looks very good for trends and one to recoup any money on. In my book we only have about 10 to worry about even before the final runners are declared.
So admin can we have a page for the Sandown Gold Cup Chase please?
kj Says:
April 19th, 2008 at 8:52 pm
“wacky” you are nasty
just seen your comment to me on this page that I haven’t
even been on before!?! dated april 16th
I told you, I backed the winner of the GN before I found this site!
it was the first horse I backed and I didn’t even know you!
can’t you recognize the truth when its even written in the blog history
you think I need your help, you need help with that attitude.
The first three years I won I backed only one horse so put that in your pipe!!
I backed 6 horses this year in the end and everyone knows! not atleast 10!
I have not only claimed you have a big head for thinking the whole world was
on Comply because it was your tip, I also complimented you on your hard work and valued opinion and how much I had enjoyed reading it,
you have just been slinging mud and still somehow think I was on your tip, unbelievable!
You called Russell an idiot! and he got the winner and two placed
you also rubbed people like Crisp73 and Brody up the wrong way with your strong words.
bit of a pattern here for you!
I hope Admin tell you to reel your head in!
if you can’t do it yourself
because you are spoiling this not just for me, but for everyone else,
sorry everyone,
this guy has enraged and upset me
I regret saying anything in the first place,
I know I should have let it lye but I don’t want to be bullied
especially when they are telling untruths
Unless you apologize for your last comments wacky
(I’ve given up on you excepting that I and others back GN winners without you)
well, I’m afraid you don’t exist. I still don’t want you to leave but I want to put this all behind us and just be nice, enough said.
wacky Says:
April 20th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
I apologise to KJ and anyone else i have upset on this blog.I feel that i’ve been misunderstood by some of you in my quest to help find the winner of the national.I will not post anymore of my views as i don’t want to upset my fellow bloggers.Good luck to you all in the future.wacky
Brody Says:
April 21st, 2008 at 1:49 am
If that’s true, great news.
Guessing nobody picked that winner out then? And if you did how the hell did you do it? Looked an impressive performance was still going away with ease when passing the post. If he can handle the bigger fences at Aintree has to be respected. Managed to land a nice little touch with Old Benny E/W at 12/1, hope a few more of you got on early enough for the each way value, it did disappear quite quick. Noir didn’t quite get the trip it seems also Halcon staying in was bad news and think the ground wasn’t a true good which wouldn’t have helped. Not aftertiming either posted my two on the other thread.
Was a shame for those that lost out on Himalayan like Systems Man, think it would have had a great chance with Halcon pushing so many out of the handicap and ground shouldn’t have been a problem.
Will be picking up my winnings tomorrow from the bookies and putting straight back on 50/50 split between:
Character Building GN 2009
Sizing Europe CH 2009
Bit crazy I know but its the bookies money so won’t be too upset if I lose it
kj Says:
April 21st, 2008 at 1:59 pm
wacky- I don’t want you to leave like I said.
I and many others value your opinion,
we have often had similar thoughts about
horses chances or lack of in the GN and it is good to hear
someone else expressing similar conclusions.
Often you tell it like it is sometimes you go too far, but
I can except that and I think I have been too sensitive recently
Like I said on the thread where this all kicked off,
I think being misunderstood may be the problem with blogging
considering this is the only blog I have ever been on I’m learning this
We all love this site and are thankful for finding
such a place to exchange real independent points of view
after all these years.
I feel we have built a great community and that certainly includes you wacky, don’t go!
kj Says:
April 21st, 2008 at 2:26 pm
I only watched the scottish national
fancied King Harold and Him Trail and when they withdrew
well I thought something like this would happen,
top weight just being beaten by unknown.
Hope someone got this 66-1 shot carrying no.22
with no no.33 in this national, I shoulda used my
wacky numbers system to pick this one outta the pack!
noticed this horse is out of Cyborg doesn’t that have a few other national credits? what a funny shaped horse think there might be a bit of hyena in there somewhere!
Denman Says:
April 21st, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Wacky.. Dont be like that. Its true that some people may have misunderstood where your coming from but its us against the bookies! and we need your help as you are one of the people who put in the most effort to help us out.
So please re-consider yeah?
wacky Says:
April 21st, 2008 at 5:52 pm
Thanks for your comments guys and i expect i will be back next year.I must say that if we all met up we would have a good laugh about all this in house(blog)fighting.I talked everyone that would listen to me into backing COD & D’ARGENT,but its not so easy to get your views across on here as i suppose some of the things i’ve said sound cocky!!But i will say if the race was run every week i would quit work!!See there i go again!!!!!!
Gammers Says:
April 21st, 2008 at 9:29 pm
Agree with Systems that the Sandown Gold Cup looks a good trends race, and with the entries down to 24 today my shortlist is now 6 (ok 25% of the field, so maybe not that good a trends race).
Royal County Star looks to be a justifiable favourite, with Newbay Prop representing good value at 16/1.
Not sure how good an indication it will be for GN 2009, but any handicaps over this sort of distance should offer some clues.
SILVER BIRCH Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 2:54 pm
yes wacky - please dont go - u shoot from the hip and tell it like it is but underneath what may seem a hard edged exterior lies a man with a burning passion for evthing to do with the grand nat and genuinely tries to help others find the winner - ur prob just frustrated coz comply or die was staring us in the face for so long and lots of us talked round it… were all grand nat buffs and we need to stick together !! ..
Jimmy Boy Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 5:38 pm
Agreed. I think it would be great if every now and then people contributed updates with horses they have seen that look like national types, or we discuss upcoming races.
Come January hopefully everyone will be back on this blog and we’ll be analysing the big race again. Hopefully there will be staring us right in the face early on, at a nice price, and we all bash the bookies together!
wacky Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 6:21 pm
Just looked at the betting on the national for next year and have to say nothing is catching the eye.But i feel sure that COD,SNOWY MORNING,SLIM PICKINGS & CLOUDY LANE will all have to much weight.I can’t believe that the fav at the moment DENMAN will be entered after he wins the gold cup again next year but who knows.
Systems Man Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 9:46 pm
Agree with your comments Wacky. We need to find the 2009 winner with 10stone something and OR 136 to 144 + the other key trends. Role on 2009! COD cannot win next year!
kj Says:
April 24th, 2008 at 2:06 am
yep, statistically speaking that is correct. Any horse that wins or is placed in the GN can’t win ever again.
That’s why I want another aintree national!!!
for all those consequently weighted out of contention! its only fair that these specialists get another chance
at aintree glory off an even mark.
Why not? we have the enthusiasm! lets campaign for it
Sandown gold cup on saturday looks an interesting mix,
have to look into it tmw
Systems Man Says:
April 24th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
Sandwon Gold Cup Saturday:
My short list on best trends (the bookies have got this one correct)
1. Ungaro*
2. Royal County Star *
+
3. Patsy Hall* (best value IF it runs - you need to wait and see - many bookies do not have a price on oddschecker.com - you may have to wait till Saturday to be sure).
* - has secret trend required to win for last 10 years (last weeks SN winner Iris De Balme at 66/1 also had it).
I dont think Iris De Balme will figure in it (two years in a row SN and Sandown Gold Cup double - I dont think so!). The winner lies between (it wont be another Scottish National I think!):
TOP WEIGHT
Ungaro 10.10 OR 150
BOTTOM WEIGHT
Royal County Star 10.00 OR 140
I cant say I have studied this race in fine detail as I am ploting up something big in May to make ‘loads of money’ if I get it right so have been somewhat distracted.
Gammers Says:
April 25th, 2008 at 11:05 am
I’ve had a bit of a detailed look, and from the 19 runners that seem to be confirmed (although having difficulty getting the info) we have 5 possibles on the 20 year trends being, Royal County Star, Iris de Balme, Ungaro, Lothian Falcon and Bewleys Berry.
Agree with Systems that IdB completing the double a year after Hot Weld is unlikely, but handicap wise IdB is carrying a nominal 10′0 but the jockey has a 7lb allowance. On Ayr form should be carrying 10′4, so seems well in.
As we know from GN2008 the handicap does have a huge part to play as the three well in horses there were CoD, Snowy and Cloudy Lane.
Having talked IdB up, personally my money will still be on RCS.
Bookies have this one spot on I’m afraid.
wacky Says:
April 26th, 2008 at 8:40 am
Just watched the Morning Line and Tanya pointed out that no jockey claiming 5lbs or more has won the race in the last 20yrs and only 1 horse has won with a 3lb claimer.What do you think about that guys? Lump on Medicine Path its won on good to firm and Major Cad won’t stay!!
Systems Man Says:
April 26th, 2008 at 11:32 am
My bet today on Sandown Gold Cup.
Royal County Star 3.5 pts to win at 5/1 (Lad)or better
Ungaro 2.5 pts to win at 15/2 (Coral) or better
Lothian Falcon 1 pt to win at 9/1 (Coral) or better - stake cover bet
Bewleys Berry 1 pt to win at 12/1 (Coral) or better - stake cover bet.
Total staked 8 pts - with a good profit if RCS or Ungaro wins.
Iris de Balme - no way, but its keeping up the prices on the other good runnners! Looks like Gammers and I agree.
wacky Says:
April 26th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Royal County Star & Caribou both look good e-w bets for me today.
wacky Says:
April 26th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
Roll on 4th april 2009.That was rubbish today!!!
Brody Says:
April 27th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
Was very worried to see poor Bewley’s break down like that, but seems he should be okay in the long term and going into a well earned retirement.
Betting wise had 2pts E/W on Hoo La Baloo and Racing Demon, ended up just over even so not bad. Didn’t even look twice at Monkey, top quality horse but really thought he’d gone at the game and was past his best. Also nice to see an old friend in Royal Auclair still cutting it at a high level shame I didn’t back him this time.
kj Says:
April 27th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
oh dear sorry to hear about bewleys Brody
I completely missed the race been too busy
was going to have a bet on old Royal Auclair
lucky for me it didn’t win really
I did think that the Scottish winner Iris
would run well too unlike many of you guys?!
saw a recording of the end of the race
looked like he flew home think he may be one for the future too surely!?
Any more good hunt races left?
I could do with something enjoyable after this weekend believe me, please don’t tell me the jumps are all over again NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
Brody Says:
April 28th, 2008 at 2:18 am
Err yeah Sandown is the finale of the season.
And yeah Iris ran a good race for me, jockey didn’t really keep him close enough to the pace and probably gave him too much to do at the end, still if you will put a claimer on-board gotta live with the odd error.