Other Aintree Races 2009
Posted on March 29th, 2009 in Grand National 2009
I’ve seen some comments asking for a seperate thread for the shoulder races for the Aintree Festival so perhaps we can use this thread as the place to list all our thoughts, tips etc.
I tried a full section on this meeting last year and on reflection its probably best to just have one page like this and then I will set up a Topham page early next week as well.
So, all your non Grand National Aintree ideas on here please.
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This post has 77 comments
#1
March 29th, 2009 20:52
I’m in the Tatts on the Friday and County Roof Stand on the Saturday so will be focusing primarily on those days.
From an initial glance of the cards i’m really looking forward to the Melling Chase on the Friday – Voy Por will undoubtedly start favourite after dismantling Master Minded in the race last year, but think Nacarat must have an awesome chance after his win at Kempton lto.
Does anyone have a link for previous ‘other’ race stats at the meeting? The RP website listed last 10 yr history for each race during Cheltenham but nothing there at the moment.
Will post up my selections nearer the time, happy studying guys!
#2
March 29th, 2009 21:00
http://www.freebetinfo.com/jumps-racing seems to have some fairly basic trends – something to start with at least!
#3
March 29th, 2009 21:29
Got the stats for the Maghull novices chaase
aged 5-8 14/14/5 or 7 yrs old 11/14
2m+ wins (hdl and chs) 4-11 12/14 14/14 have won at least one tho
2m wins 13/14 incl hdl
run well at Cheltenham
15-46 days since last run 14/14
0-24 days 12/14
2-5 chases 13/14
top 6 LTO 11/14 (other 3 fell)
Thats what i’ve got for now, i’ll look at other races later in the week
#4
March 30th, 2009 10:46
Thanks TC gives us some tips based on your findings too
#5
March 30th, 2009 14:03
I have the aintree festival betting guide which gives a lot of trends for the major races which I will post up here. the trends usually throw up quite a few good winners at aintree – cheltenham is so much harder. I’ll review the night before each race and let you know what I think.
#6
March 30th, 2009 15:47
That would be very useful Baggy – Looking forward to seeing that.
#7
March 30th, 2009 21:12
Good stuff son need all the help we can get I am especially interested in the Topham and the Bumper(Saturdays) stats/trends
#8
April 1st, 2009 16:10
Starluck is my nap tomorrow – best on a flat track on good ground -think he will take all the beating – ran a cracker in the Triumph travelling like the winner for the most part but didn’t get up the hill – Aintree will be right up his street
#9
April 1st, 2009 21:11
BIG BUCKS 5/6 at Paddy Power is a 5 STAR NAP on the 1st day at Aintree.Is it Saturday yet? Good luck everyone
#10
April 1st, 2009 21:17
Admin,
Why haven’t you posted my reply?
It was being moderated last night then never appeared…
Do i need to be a member or something?
As far as I could see there was nothing wrong with it.
I never even got an email with a reason.
Thanks
#11
April 1st, 2009 21:32
race 1 – only 5 years
all 5 finished 1st or 2nd at aintree
6 or 7 years old – 100%
4/5 carried maximum penalty
4/5 finished placed in world hurdle
4/5 run close to the pace
4/5 1st 3 in the betting
not an original choice but BIG BUCKS all the way
#12
April 1st, 2009 21:33
i wont even go into the stats for race 2 – i was left with 3 and one was walk on – if that doesnt win at aintree i dont know what will. WALK ON (sentimental reasons) – starluck or silk drum alternatives
#13
April 1st, 2009 21:36
totesport bowl – not many strong trends but on the basis of an unplaced run in the gold cup and a 2nd in the king george and with weight received i think mccoy has made a mistake and albertas run has his ground @ 12/1. not a strong trends race.
#14
April 1st, 2009 21:40
23/25 over 9 yrs old
14/16 placed last time out (others fell and 5th) – lose those who ran badly
good race for the favs 15/16 in the first four so look close to the front
handicappers have a good record as opposed to Hunters
i was left with distant thunder, mcevoy, take the stand, trust fund
out of these RP sporlights shortfalls in all. I am going for take the stand as he has his ground though trip might be short
#15
April 1st, 2009 21:42
Baggy – could you post a link where you have got these stats from as i can’t find them anywhere
cheers
#16
April 1st, 2009 21:43
last race was foxhunters obviously
#17
April 1st, 2009 21:45
that’s it really. the others threw up nothing
locksmith – see the national post. he was left in my list so i backed him.
no stats on the last race but one – fancy planet of sound
last race – only left with hernando royal but dont fancy it so gone for sunnyhill boy for JP Macmanus
#18
April 1st, 2009 21:46
I bought a book called the aintree and punchestowns betting guide. if you want any particular race i will post up all the info.
#19
April 1st, 2009 21:54
nice one baggy – i’ll have to start working them out myself i think. Does Karabak fit the trends on saturday in the mersy novices hurdle – think he’s going for that one as he’s entered in two, fancy him in a double with Rambo
#20
April 1st, 2009 22:03
mersey novices
4 year olds are 0 from 27 since 1996
1 winner older than 6 in last 21 years (last year)
most winners (8 of 12) finished top 6 at cheltenham – the others look to be either paul nichols or irish trained *
the only two winners outside the top 2 in the betting where irish trained or trained by nicky richards
paul nicholls has won 3 out of 3 and N Richards is win or place on all 4 runners
only 2 horses in the last 10 years have finished unplaced in last 5 runs and that was last run – at cheltenham (in supreme novice)
only one horse hasnt won during season in last 10 years
only one horse has run less than 4 times in last 10 years * made a mistake above 2001 winner ran once and not at cheltanham
last 10 winners had run over last 46 days
#21
April 1st, 2009 22:13
cheers for that, think it’ll be Tatenen then
#22
April 1st, 2009 22:13
for sure i could not oppose big bucks on trends, even if he wasnt the best horse. i am not an odds on backer though.
#23
April 1st, 2009 22:16
yeah i think mighty man will go close especially with the weights pull, one to stay away from for me, misread mersey nov trends, gonna stick with Karabaak in that one i think
#24
April 1st, 2009 22:33
my big bet tomorrow will be walkon
#25
April 2nd, 2009 07:35
Aintree today so far:
Leslingtaylor & Locksmith in 4:20
Sunnyhillboy & Whitstone Boy in 5:30
4 x win
4 x E/W doubles
Good luck with your bets everyone!
#26
April 2nd, 2009 08:07
Hi Baggy,I narrowed the foxhunters down to 3 of your 4 as Take the stand has had over 20 chase starts which is a big stat.The last 10 winners have been priced under 8/1 so at the moment that just leaves us with Trust Fund,but Distant thunders price may come down.8yr olds have a poor record so that is why im passing over Agus A Vic.Hope that helps and good luck.
#27
April 2nd, 2009 08:22
I’ve gone for Distant Thunder in the Foxhunters. Bet365 are going 4 places at 1/4 odds and 12/1 seems pretty fair to me.
#28
April 2nd, 2009 09:21
Hi Onry,
When you make you first post I have to approve you and it was my day off yesterday – hence the delay – sorry about that – you shouldn’t have any problems now
#29
April 2nd, 2009 10:51
Good luck to everyone over the next 3 days
Thought I’d post my bets / staking plan (I have a 50 Pt Bank for the meeting, excluding the GN – make of a “point” what you will !!)
2:00 6 Pts Win Big Buck’s @ 5/6
2:35 4 Pts Win Hebridean @ 3/1
3:10 2 Pts Win Exotic Dancer @ 7/2
3:45 3 Pts Win Agus A Vic @ 4/1
4:20 2 Pts Win Leslingtaylor @ 8/1
1 Pt Win Valain @ 16/1
4:55 4 Pts Win Chapoturgeon @ 15/8
5:30 2 Pys Win Prince Taime @ 10/1
1 Pt Win Auroras Encore @ 16/1
Total Stake 25 Pts (Bank 25 Pts) – hopefully shouldn’t do too much damage…….unlike my 4 Pts already gone west on Character Building !!
Fingers Crossed
#30
April 2nd, 2009 13:31
Day One Nap BIG BUCKS wins @5/6.Come on WALKON!!!
#31
April 2nd, 2009 13:36
just watching BBC2 and Alan King worried about the track!!!!! doesnt sound very bullish.
#32
April 2nd, 2009 13:41
i reckon you should ignore everything a trainer says on TV, be it bullish or negative. it was easy…anyway that’s my weekend paid for.
#33
April 2nd, 2009 13:41
WALKON WALKON WALKON with hope in your heart!!!Exotic Dancer next please!!
#34
April 2nd, 2009 13:43
i’ll have a small bet on alberta’s but obviously with mccoy passing him over you’d have to think exotic dancer is the main danger to denman. good luck.
#35
April 2nd, 2009 14:30
i got a bit lucky there with my ew – having reviewed the odds take the stand is too big based on trends so i have backed mcevoy
#36
April 2nd, 2009 14:40
Distant thunder into 8′s so it fits the stats with trust fund now.Both good e-w bets!!
#37
April 2nd, 2009 14:45
Trust Fund for me
#38
April 2nd, 2009 14:54
Get in TRUST FUND!! 3 winners and a 2nd on day 1.Happy days
#39
April 2nd, 2009 15:09
happy days. 2 wins, 3rd and 4th (mcevoy not take the stand)
having reviewed the stats I think Valain is the one to be on for the win.
#40
April 2nd, 2009 15:25
Got that Locksmith totally wrong!
#41
April 2nd, 2009 15:27
Leslingtaylor needed faster ground – maybe at Ayr
#42
April 2nd, 2009 15:42
Very Sad day for racing we have lost one of racing greats and good bless his soul.Sleep well EXOTIC DANCER and thanks for some great memories.
#43
April 2nd, 2009 16:48
Sunnyhillboy does the business
2 winners and an each way place double from 3 races
Aintree has the best handicaps and the National fences!
#44
April 2nd, 2009 17:20
What a sad day today, ive been following exotic dancer for many years now and was my favourate horse, gutted
.
R.I.P my friend.
Ive always hated mccoy, killed my fav horse, hate him even more now -_-.
#45
April 2nd, 2009 17:27
trust fund
sunnyhill boy
big bucks
and starluck place good day today
#46
April 2nd, 2009 20:15
anyone fancy a treble on saturday
Karabak
Kalahari King
Rambo
should be good as other two race before GN and could be a nice little earner, especially as Karabak and Kalahari King had great races at Chelt
#47
April 2nd, 2009 21:00
Baggy is there any chance you can a little review for the races tomorrow.
#48
April 2nd, 2009 21:29
Does anyone have any trends for the Topham tomorrow?
#49
April 2nd, 2009 21:36
just got back from football. i am all over it now.
#50
April 2nd, 2009 21:50
not much to go on in the 1st race but looking to
a 1st or 2nd in previous race (cheltenham or flat excluded) – all recent i think
flat bred ( 5 of last 6)
1st 4 in the betting (14 of 18)
leaves american trilogy, red moloney and silk hall
with the king stable in form and in receipt of weight and in fact the highest OR of the three that would be my pick.
#51
April 2nd, 2009 22:02
mildmay novices
16 of last 18 had won over 3M or further
look for horses 8 or younger – only like a butterfly won recently
minimum 2 previous chase wins
minimum 4 chase runs
this leaves herecomethetruth *, shining gale *, seigemaster and or jaune
there’s been nothing at 10/1 over won in the past twenty years which only leaves those starred and it is hard to knock herecomesthetruth so I think that would be my choice.
#52
April 2nd, 2009 22:07
This is excellent Baggy but can I query your comment about Silk Hall having the highest OR of the 3 horses you listed?
#53
April 2nd, 2009 22:12
melling chase
7 or under – only 2 winners in 21 years
1st 3 finish – only monets garden (aintree specialist who was 4th)
win over 20f or further
leaves
nacarat
schlindlers hunt
tidal bay (fits the monets profile)
voy por ustedes
the winners usually has competered in the queen mother, tingle creek, melling previously or ryanair – which moves me to bypass nacarat
pretty boring but it must be either voy por ustedes (a favourite of mine) or tidal bay (unbeaten at aintree)
#54
April 2nd, 2009 22:13
sorry about the slik hall OR. I was looking at the OR in their last race, not the revised OR.
#55
April 2nd, 2009 22:22
Is Silk Hall still the selection then?
I was at Aintree today and Nicky Henderson walked passed and my mate got his autograph and asked him of his best bet and he said Riverside Theatre should go very well in the 2.00
#56
April 2nd, 2009 22:41
I can’t help with the topham really. there are some trends but it takes a hell of a lot of your own input so i can only give me tips.
discount horses over 11, who ran unplaced last time (exc chelt), less than 5 runs this season and debatable horses over 11st
look for course form who ran at cheltenham
i quite like oodachee and irish raptor. irish raptor has completed 4 times so should give you a good run and a pointer maybe to darkness. oodachee has been running over hurdles and the irish dont send over many and when they do i always like to take a closer look.
of course you have to respect mr pointments form and the fact ruby has chosen gwanako will also tell you something.
just not a good trends race I am afraid.
#57
April 2nd, 2009 22:43
mick fitz and mccoy gave me and my mate their best chances once at a pre-cheltenham dinner! i havent had chance to thank them yet!!!!5th and nowhere.
#58
April 2nd, 2009 22:56
sefton novices
using minimum 2 wins (14/14) minimum 4 runs (15/16) and winning form over 3m it only leaves pride of dulcote and weapons amnesty. latanier and merrydown have form at 23f so i would leave them in as well for further analysis.
for those karabak fanciers the last 14 to have been placed have been beaten here.
but of those i suggested maybe a slight ew on merrydown. on NHF against karabak he as beaten 11l giving 7lbs and nicky richards always trains horses for this festival. he is my ew of the day @ 25/1.
#59
April 2nd, 2009 23:12
totepool handicap hurdle
taking these trends literally
minimum 4 runs (21/21)
older than 5 (20/21)
rating between 124-134 (13/13)
you are only left with the bottom 4
of the lesser trends of novices, run at cheltenham and coming back from chasing somehow piraya manages to fit all 3.
i am not really sure what to make of it as it is the least fancied on the books.
#60
April 2nd, 2009 23:30
liss na tintri in the NH flat
1st or 2nd last time out
more than 1 run unless a win
must have won 1 race
4 and 5 year olds have won all 4 races
not run this year
leaves only liss na tintri, miss overdrive, chili rose and eastern paramour
miss overdrive is kings second string
obvious danger forgetting trends is candy creek as same trainer and booked ruby walsh
#61
April 2nd, 2009 23:37
Initial thoughts on Friday’s racing:
2.00 Red Moloney
2.35 Killyglen
3.45 The Sawyer, Ellerslie George
4.20 Weapons Amnesty
4.55 Captain Americo, Kayf Aramis
#62
April 2nd, 2009 23:38
a good day today (1, 1, 3, F (4), 0 (6), 3, 1)
not sure about tomorrow. looking back my last good day like above was 2005 and nothing sticks out except herecomesthetruth.
looking forward to voy por v tidal bay.
i have 3 outsiders to back ew (oodachee, merrydown and piraya) and i am not sure about the 1st. i think i should review my findings.
so its liss na tintri for me!
#63
April 3rd, 2009 08:23
LOVE the look of today’s fields and has the look of an “Each Way Thieves” benefit. In fact so much so, that I’ve raised the bank by 20 Pts (something I’ve never, EVER done). So here goes then – and nothing left for tomorrow if it all goes breasts up : 36 Pt Bank from yesterday (starting from 50 Pts) + 20 Pt “Top Up”.
2.00 4 Pts EW Red Moloney @ 11/2
2.35 2 Pts EW Siegemaster @ 12/1
3.10 7 Pts EW Tidal Bay @ 11/2
3.45 3 Pts EW Ping Pong Sivola @ 15/2
1 Pt EW The Sawyer @ 16/1
4.20 4 Pts EW Weapon’s Amnesty @ 11/2
4.55 2 Pts EW Kayf Aramis @ 9/1
2 Pts EW Inchidaly Rock @ 10/1
0.4 Pt Win Lucky 15 (with Betfred of course !)
Red Moloney @ 5/1+
Tidal Bay @ 9/2+
Ping Pong Sivola @ 7/1+
Weapon’s Amnesty @ 5/1+
You won’t be hearing from me tomorrow if they all go down the swanee – cos I’ll have done 70 big ones.
Should be OK but you never know – I was confident yesterday too !!
TaTa
#64
April 3rd, 2009 08:44
E/W yankee for today
2.00 Red Moloney
3.45 The Sawyer
4.20 Weapons Amnesty
4.55 Captain Americo
Plus win bets as the day progresses
Good luck with your bets everyone!
#65
April 3rd, 2009 09:38
i wouldnt argue with either of those bets guys. good luck.
#66
April 3rd, 2009 11:43
Todays 5 star bet is VOY POR USTEDES.Also fancy RIVERSIDE THEATRE,SIEGEMASTER,PING PONG SIVOLA & CAPTAIN AMERICO all E-W.Good luck everyone and if i only have 1 more winner(RAMBO)i will be over the MOON!!!
#67
April 3rd, 2009 12:46
Just 1 more to add to the mix is OODACHEE in the Topham.Didn’t get home against CB at chelt and was 6th in this last year.
#68
April 3rd, 2009 14:59
i should have done the forecast in the topham eh? had oodachee ew though so not a bad result. up for the day so far as only had a small win double earlier. got an ew on merrydown but that’s it. will break even minimum.
#69
April 3rd, 2009 15:29
Thank God for Killyglen – saved the day
Nothing from first 3 legs on yankee
Captain Americo in the next would make it a good result overall
#70
April 3rd, 2009 20:44
race 1 – paul nicholls 3 runners have won. when do you get nicholls and walsh @ 20/1 in a race where only cape tribulation is the only trends horse left in at less odds. i think it is worth a punt
4 year olds – 0 from 27 in 18 years
7+ years – 1 in 21 years (i know my tip is 7 but its too good a bet)
finished outside of top 6 at cheltenham
ew on conflict of interest though purely on trends cape tribulation.
#71
April 3rd, 2009 20:48
race 2 – 14/14 have run in the arkles and they have finished 1-2-3 or fell. no reason to think it wont happen again so take your pick. i backed killyglen in RSA and missed out today so maybe tatenen will repay my losses tomorrow and is a tentative selection.
#72
April 3rd, 2009 20:49
race 3 – i couldnt find the winner myself but would say dont look at 5 year olds (1 in 20) or those without a 2m 4f win already. the irish look to have it in the bag and hopefully an emotional win for al eile. i wont be betting.
#73
April 3rd, 2009 20:54
race 4 – the race may have changed now because until 3 years ago recent form was important but the prize money was upped and it looks like horses may now be trained for this as all the last 3 finished unplaced. however i have a strong fancy for three mirrors who fits the bill of most previous winners, looks to be a spring horse checking all his runs, ran 2nd here last year and I imagine ferdy murphy has him primed for a big run again.
#74
April 3rd, 2009 20:55
national – rambling minster hopefully. but if not i hope all the horses and jockeys arrive back safely and someone wins.
#75
April 3rd, 2009 20:58
5.00 if anyone is not in the pub.
5 and 6 year olds have won 16/18
horses with 11st + are 0 from 71 over 18 years
bypassed cheltenham
this actually only leaves four
oldrik
mutual friend
fairyland
hot diamond
felix de giles looks a good jockey so i would have a punt at fairyland
#76
April 3rd, 2009 21:22
my two outsiders in the last are wymott and alexander beetle
#77
April 3rd, 2009 21:43
Cranky corner in the bumper lads and lassies ran in the chelt bumper behind a GOOD animal in Dunguib so not disgraced
Ruby won’t win the National but he just might sign off with a winner get on Cranky ,which a lot of us will be if Rambling doesn’t win as I’ve had my biggest bet ever on so I’m up to my KNACKERS and higher in Rambling Minster .