Comments on: Hot Weld Takes First Step To 2009 Grand National

By: Neil Myhill

Neil Myhill — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 18:36:07 +0000

Re Hot Weld – has the stable said anything regarding the horse’s wellbeing (or not) after being pulled up ? Plus, you would think the trainer knows how much work a horse requires to be ready whatever it has done in previous seasons and, if that is a “given” (a big one I know) HW could be in the GN at a very useful weight.

By: Daniel Edwards

Daniel Edwards — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 17:20:06 +0000

I agree re French Bred’s WITH THE EXCEPTION of Butlers Cabin, because for all purposes he IS NOT in fact French!!

I know you weren’t having a go dont worry!

By: wacky

wacky — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 16:44:11 +0000

Look im not having a go Daniel and as you know its hard to make your point on the blog without upsetting people.But can i just say you have said about being placed in a grade 1 the year before being a 10/10 trend and like a french bred 100/100 not won its trends that can be broken and i know which 1 i think has the best chance of being broken.Parsons Legacy may go to Aintree without another run so that breaks the 50 days or less since a run trend and not had 4 runs.Cheers wacky

By: Daniel Edwards

Daniel Edwards — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 12:37:34 +0000

wacky Says:
February 19th, 2009 at 5:46 pm

Ok i get your drift but it fits the main trends that you need for a national winner.All i was trying to say was that at the moment no other horse fits the trends as well as RAMBO!!Whats your fancy’s then daniel?IM SURE I WILL FIND HOLES IN ANY OF YOUR FANCIES!!!

I agree, that was my point. My number 1 pick is Rambling Minster. Beyond that, Butlers Cabin, subject to a decent run, Parsons Legacy, ditto, State of Play, if he avoids Cheltenham.

By: Russell

Russell — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 19:53:38 +0000

it wasn’t good! But then again who knows what shape he will be in come April

the horse has too much class to rule out, carrying 12 st on soft ground was maybe just too much on a return after 2 years out. 10st on good ground at Aintree would be better….

By: crisp 73

crisp 73 — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 17:58:06 +0000

Well, as I said on different thread, Aldaniti and Minnehoma came back in the spring after lengthy absences and they both won a chase before their Nationals. I haven’t seen HW’s race but it doesn’t sound good.

By: wacky

wacky — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 16:46:12 +0000

By: Daniel Edwards

Daniel Edwards — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 15:17:04 +0000

I agree with you The Stayer…its not a stat im using.

I was saying it to make a point to Wacky about the stats;

There is never a horse who meets EVERY stat (as he stated) and even if you have hte one who meets the most, Rambling Minster, it doesnt mean he will definately win, as Wacky seems to think!

I do use the C1 place in a chase of at least 3 miles (preferably further) however.

By: The Stayer

The Stayer — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 13:32:31 +0000

“Rambling Minster did not place in a C1 race over 3 miles or further in a season previous to this one.”

I think this “stat” is more about coincidence than relevance. To me his current level of form is of far more importance and he’s scored twice in Class 1 company this season. If he doesn’t win the National it won’t be because last year or the year before he hadn’t been placed in a class 1 chase!

I think this is one of the spurious “stats” to be honest. When looking at stats you have to look at their relevance – can they explain something? Using the age stat is fine because typically stayers are in their peak at 9, 10, 11 etc. Horses aged 13 or over are generally past their best whilst 6 or 7yos are typically not yet at their peak and/or do not have enough experience. Similarly the stats regarding experience, form over 3m+ (stamina), weight etc are useful because these can explain failure – the horse doesn’t have enough experience, the horse hasn’t proved that he stays etc.

By: Daniel Edwards

Daniel Edwards — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 13:10:42 +0000

Rambling Minster did not place in a C1 race over 3 miles or further in a season previous to this one.

That’s a 10/10 trend Wacky….