Hot Weld Takes First Step To 2009 Grand National
2007 Scottish National and Betfred Gold Cup winner Hot Weld returns to the racecourse today after a near two year absence.
Ferdy Murphy is preparing the ten year old for an attempt at the Grand National in April and his supporters will be keen to see how he gets on today.
Hot Weld has usually needed quite a few runs at the start of each season to reach full fitness so it will be interesting to see how shrewd trainer Murphy intends to combat the limited amount of time he has at his disposal between now and Aintree. It would seem the plan has always been to get the horse there fresh – but how will he get on today in what is a very competitive veterans chase at Doncaster?
Hot Weld is currently a 25/1 chance with Paddy Power and they are currently offering extra place terms on the Grand National – 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5 so now might be the time to take advantage!
Add your views after the race at 3.20 as to how you think Hot Weld performed and if you think he will be a force in the Grand National itself
This post has 19 comments
#1
February 18th, 2009 15:41
I was tempted to take the 25s but I imagine he will need the run today. As you say, it’s a competitive race and he’s got top weight, and with a view on Aintree i’m sure G Lee will take it easy on him and pull him up if necessary. I think i’ll leave it.
#2
February 18th, 2009 15:43
He’ll probably hack-up after i’ve just posted that and be 14/1 in about 45 mins!!
#3
February 18th, 2009 16:31
Started at 16/1 in from 25s but never travelled, and was pulled up about 8 from home.
I wouldn’t think a National bid looks likely unless they can get another run in him soon with a more promising outcome.
#4
February 18th, 2009 17:04
8 from home is a long way out. Didn’t see the race but will watch it on the ATR site at some point later.
#5
February 18th, 2009 17:55
Will he even run in the GN after that? Not a penny of my money until he wins a race this season. Time is not on his side.
#6
February 18th, 2009 19:04
I wouldn’t be too disappointed in that if there was more time especially given his previous early season record over fences:
2006: PPP611
2005: 53611
In those two seasons he has taken three runs to get to his prime so I was a bit mystified to see Mr Murphy saying he doesn’t take much getting ready?
Granted he won 2nd time up over hurdles but surely it looks now like he needs a fair bit of winding up to be at his peak? Hardly likely to happen between now and Aintree I guess although I wouldn’t rule him out totally on today’s bad run as I would imagine it wasn’t totally unexpected.
#7
February 18th, 2009 20:55
I’d say the most likely path would see him swerve Aintree and go back for another crack at Ayr?
#8
February 18th, 2009 23:27
Back in prison again so this is my last post unless my shortlist changes in the next few weeks.I managed to see that the guys were posting
their top 5 so here is mine.
1 RAMBLING MINSTER…………………………………………Thats it as its the only horse that fully fits the stats at the moment.P.S.I’ve left Eastenders to visit Debbie Dingle and i may not be back!!!!! .-)
#9
February 19th, 2009 12:16
“Gammers Says:
February 18th, 2009 at 8:55 pm
I’d say the most likely path would see him swerve Aintree and go back for another crack at Ayr?”
Reply:
I agree Gammers – most likely and gives the horse more time which is clearly needed. If I was the trainer its what I would do.
#10
February 19th, 2009 14:10
Rambling Minster did not place in a C1 race over 3 miles or further in a season previous to this one.
That’s a 10/10 trend Wacky….
#11
February 19th, 2009 14:32
“Rambling Minster did not place in a C1 race over 3 miles or further in a season previous to this one.”
I think this “stat” is more about coincidence than relevance. To me his current level of form is of far more importance and he’s scored twice in Class 1 company this season. If he doesn’t win the National it won’t be because last year or the year before he hadn’t been placed in a class 1 chase!
I think this is one of the spurious “stats” to be honest. When looking at stats you have to look at their relevance – can they explain something? Using the age stat is fine because typically stayers are in their peak at 9, 10, 11 etc. Horses aged 13 or over are generally past their best whilst 6 or 7yos are typically not yet at their peak and/or do not have enough experience. Similarly the stats regarding experience, form over 3m+ (stamina), weight etc are useful because these can explain failure – the horse doesn’t have enough experience, the horse hasn’t proved that he stays etc.
#12
February 19th, 2009 16:17
I agree with you The Stayer…its not a stat im using.
I was saying it to make a point to Wacky about the stats;
There is never a horse who meets EVERY stat (as he stated) and even if you have hte one who meets the most, Rambling Minster, it doesnt mean he will definately win, as Wacky seems to think!
I do use the C1 place in a chase of at least 3 miles (preferably further) however.
#13
February 19th, 2009 17:46
Ok i get your drift but it fits the main trends that you need for a national winner.All i was trying to say was that at the moment no other horse fits the trends as well as RAMBO!!Whats your fancy’s then daniel?Im sure i will find holes in any of your fancys!!!
#14
February 19th, 2009 18:58
Well, as I said on different thread, Aldaniti and Minnehoma came back in the spring after lengthy absences and they both won a chase before their Nationals. I haven’t seen HW’s race but it doesn’t sound good.
#15
February 19th, 2009 20:53
it wasn’t good! But then again who knows what shape he will be in come April
the horse has too much class to rule out, carrying 12 st on soft ground was maybe just too much on a return after 2 years out. 10st on good ground at Aintree would be better….
#16
February 20th, 2009 13:37
wacky Says:
February 19th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
Ok i get your drift but it fits the main trends that you need for a national winner.All i was trying to say was that at the moment no other horse fits the trends as well as RAMBO!!Whats your fancy’s then daniel?IM SURE I WILL FIND HOLES IN ANY OF YOUR FANCIES!!!
I agree, that was my point. My number 1 pick is Rambling Minster. Beyond that, Butlers Cabin, subject to a decent run, Parsons Legacy, ditto, State of Play, if he avoids Cheltenham.
#17
February 20th, 2009 17:44
Look im not having a go Daniel and as you know its hard to make your point on the blog without upsetting people.But can i just say you have said about being placed in a grade 1 the year before being a 10/10 trend and like a french bred 100/100 not won its trends that can be broken and i know which 1 i think has the best chance of being broken.Parsons Legacy may go to Aintree without another run so that breaks the 50 days or less since a run trend and not had 4 runs.Cheers wacky
#18
February 20th, 2009 18:20
I agree re French Bred’s WITH THE EXCEPTION of Butlers Cabin, because for all purposes he IS NOT in fact French!!
I know you weren’t having a go dont worry!
#19
February 20th, 2009 19:36
Re Hot Weld – has the stable said anything regarding the horse’s wellbeing (or not) after being pulled up ? Plus, you would think the trainer knows how much work a horse requires to be ready whatever it has done in previous seasons and, if that is a “given” (a big one I know) HW could be in the GN at a very useful weight.