Hennessy Gold Cup 2008: Analysis
The Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury has proved a great starting point to many Grand National entrants’ seasons and 2008 looks potentially no different.
Our Hennessy page on the main Grand National Guide site deals with how runners in this race have fared and is a good starting point if you think your Hennessy fancy might go on to take part in the grand National:
http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/hennessey-form.php
But what of the Hennessy itself? Who should we be looking to back?
The race is traditionally a haven for up and coming, second-season chasers and, in my opinion, the horses with less miles on the board are the ones to focus on. I’m using the following criteria to narrow the field down:
Less than eleven races over fences
Aged under 10 years old
Placed first or second or last start
This fairly short check list eliminates a large number of the runners and leaves us with:
Air Force One
Big Bucks
Dear Villez
Character Building
Island Flyer
My own preference from the runners highlighted is for Island Flyer as I was very impressed with his effort in a decent Hennessy trial, the Badger Ales at Wincanton.
I’m slightly concerned about Big Bucks’ jumping. Too often the comments “blundered” seem to crop up in his analysis and I’d rather go with the horse from the in form Tom George yard that will apparently be up and around the pace of the race.
I’m tempted by Character Building and I think he will run a big race but I just can’t see him being good enough to win a race like this. I would think he will do his National chance no harm with a prominent run though. Air Force One is not a horse I have ever really taken to, despite his admirable record and I think Dear Villez had his big race last time out.
Of the others eliminated by the stats, I believe it very possible that Albertas Run could bounce back to form and I have sneaking feeling about My Will at a huge price, even though his trainer is very negative about his handicap mark.
So, that’s it for now and I am signing off for a bit as I am away on leave so good luck at Newbury and hope your National ante post vouchers look a bit more attractive after the big race.
Keep posting your thoughts on the Hennessy and let everyone know how you think the race will effect the Grand National and thanks to Daniel and Jimmy Boy for their Hennessy analysis on the Grand Sefton thread. Good work lads!
This post has 59 comments
#1
November 30th, 2008 11:52
I would have thought the horse to take out of today would be High Chimes. Stayed on well up the straight withour ever troubling the front three…will be interesting to see if he goes for the welsh national now….
#2
December 1st, 2008 20:55
Looks like there is not a lot to read out of this years Hennessy.
Up to now and so far its last years form that gives the clues for the GN but still very early days.
Anyone got on anti-post yet? And if so why back that horse so early? Will give my early anti-post selection if enough people reply.
#3
December 1st, 2008 21:37
Hello systems man … good to c ur still alive and well… ive been having a dabble at some tasty prices early doors …. unfort it seens a bit of a funny year as not one horse seems to possess the perfect profile . anyway heres my initial top 5 …. still a long way to go and probably some more fine tuning to do ….but here goes
fancy prices and nibbled at = (all nice ORS and already out this season)
high chimes
himalayan trail
over the creek
darkness
gypsy george
not so fancy prices – will back nearer the time
hear the echo
character building (assuming he can win a decent chase race)
feel free anyone to agree / rip to shreds / laugh at …..
anybody else want to show their hand
#4
December 2nd, 2008 10:52
As mentioned elsewhere in July/August I backed;
My Will at 330/1 – Laid at 140/1 and then again at 80/1
Himalayan Trail at 65 – Laid at 30/1
Parson Legacy (my biggest bet) Backed at 120/1 – Laid at 60/1
Snoopy Loopy – Backed at 90/1 – Laid at 55/1
Garde Champetre – Backed at 110/1
New Story – Backed at 110/1
Royal County Star – 140/1
Why so early? Well they all met the stats, so far as is possible this early, and so far all their prices have come down enough to make them smart bets. Whoever wins the GN I win at the moment!
#5
December 3rd, 2008 22:03
I’ve also had an early nibble at a few,just a few quid at some nice prices;
Garde Champetre
Surface To Air
Over The Creek
Battlecry
An Accordion
High Chimes
Kings advocate
Got them all at tasty prices so i hope a few of them make it although i think i can rule out kings advocate(not run for ages and no entries) and An Accordion(OR too high)!
#6
December 3rd, 2008 22:45
Im keeping a keen eye on Hot Weld, High chimes, Hear the echo and Old Benny at the moment.
would love to hear people’s comments on these horses
#7
December 4th, 2008 10:07
Hot Weld would be very interesting for me, but he’s been off the track for a long long time now and would have to re-appear very soon for me to be interested.
Hear The Echo I also like, except he’s got a few too many F or UR in his form if you go far enough back.
Old Benny is a 7yo so I have no interest in backing him. No horse has even placed as a 7yo in at least the last 10 years. Does anybody know when the last 7yo placed?
High Chimes I like . I think he’ll need to improve again though for his Hennessy run, but thats certainly not out of the question. However, to meet the stats, he’d have to place himself in a decent race fairly soon, which could push his mark up a bit high, as he is already OR 141. Anything above 145 would leave him carrying at least 11.02 come the day.
that would be my opinion anyway!
#8
December 4th, 2008 11:52
Thanks for those comments Daniel. Agree with most of them thats why im holding back on placing my bets. Would like to see them all back out by the mid january otherwise my interest is gonna look elsewhere.
Just a quick question if anyone knows the answer to it (been trying to find out the info for mysel but cant find it anywhere) Would Old Benny not be 8 by the time the GN comes around.
#9
December 4th, 2008 12:32
Born in May 01 according to the RP Website. Is that right?
Personally, I dont think its worth backing big stakes yet. Yes you may get it right occasionally, but you’ll get it wrong more often. Better to wait until the weights are out, and then place a bigger bet when you can perhaps be more confident.
As ive said, the bets I have had so far have been small fry.
#10
December 4th, 2008 14:25
Cheers Daniel,
For some reason i couldn’t get access to the RP website.
Not putting any bets on at moment (I like to wait to see the weights as well)
Just keeping my eye on these ones and a couple of others which have caught my eye over the past 2 seasons
#11
December 6th, 2008 13:02
Howdy Dan – im a big high chimes fan – was interested in ur comment about needing to get placed in a high quality race to pass the stats… can you give us a bit more insight – i thot it was just his rpr rating that was a tad low… any current chinks in his armour from a stats point of view ? looking forward to chepstow – would like to saee him finishing 3rd there …
#12
December 6th, 2008 19:53
Silver Bich: the profile of High Chimes is looking good but not quite god enough for me to have an anti-post bet just yet (but I may change my mind on this depending on comments posted here).
On 9 key early tends he has a score of 7/9 very good).
He fails on (but still plenty of time to get it right):
1. Only 9 Chase starts – 10 is best (but I am sure he will race again before GN so will reach the 10 mark easy. We can ignore this then.
2.Best RPR of 141. He needs minimum of 144 so needs another race with a good performance. This is an important factor for the last 10 years or so the minimum pre GN RPR is 144 (a 10/10 trend). Too important to ignore.
However all other trends look good and certainly one I will be keeping an eye on – as soon as he has a RPR of 144 or more I will be having a bet on him (he could ofcourse set a new minimum RPR pre GN trend of 141 which is not far off the curent minimum of 144 so we need to be careful).
Bets trends about High Chimes are:
1. OR 140 (according to RP today)so will get a good winning weight
2. Best TS 131
3. Won chase over £17,000
4. Aged 9
5. Won class 1 or two chase
6. Won over at least 3 miles (26f in fact)
7. Runs well in March/April!!
One to place on an early short list I think along with another horse who scores 9/9 on the early trends.
#13
December 6th, 2008 20:00
Just checked Odds Checker.com. High Chimes is only quoted by Betfiar as 79/1 – no one else has a price – so we may need to wait to be sure he is entered in the GN and at least has it as a possible target for this season. Anyone know any more?
I never place an anti post bet on the GN until all the main High Street bookies price it up indicating the horse is at least serious about a run in the GN.
#14
December 6th, 2008 20:30
Thanks systems man for answering my question and for taking the time to go though it in such a detailed manner.very much appreciated .. as you say , ill think ill take my foot off the gas for a while and just keep a watching brief until the other side of xmas . then we should know a bit more.. its always fun having a dabble at such fancy prices for a few quid.. the picture should come clearer after xmas.. to be honest if we are looking for horses to have at least run four times before the great day , theres not all that many that have really been out and getting fit… hear the echo, himlayan trail and southern vic are the only other ones that i can see with 140ish or ratings that have managed to get out and get a couple of runs under their belt…the quest goes on .. !
#15
December 7th, 2008 14:45
High Chimes has only won twice over fences. Last 20 GN winners have won at least 3 times. That was the one stat putting me off. PLUS I like my picks to have at least placed in a G1 race. High Chimes hasn’t I dont think.
I wouldnt be put off by 9 runs over fences. Monty’s Pass had 9, Numbersixvalverde had 10, and the last 4 winners have all had less than 14 (I think) To me that shows that it is perhaps becoming more of a young man’s race than previously. For that reason, this year I wont be ruling out a horse with only 8 chase runs….but thats for another day!!
#16
December 8th, 2008 09:53
High Chimes hasnt placed in a G1 race yet, thats whats putting me off.
PLUS he’s only had 2 chase wins. Last 20 winners, at least, have had 3 or more chase wins.
#17
December 8th, 2008 13:45
Hello guys. Systems, i remember we said about the National winner having won a race in it’s last ten starts, only Amberleigh House didn’t fit in the last ten years and one or two in the last twenty five years or so, but if you say the National winner won one of it’s last TEN CHASES then bingo! I think this covers the last thirty five odd winners (i’ve been looking at The Times archive section so fairly sure this is correct)
I have also found some very interesting criteria for every National winner since 1981 and when used with the sorts of trends we’re keeping to it cuts down the list of probables even further- will post them when I’ve made another check(again using Times archive) Using these criteria High Chimes would need a win over 28 furlongs or further or a top 3 place in Welsh National.
Anybody interested in Celestial Gold? Former Hennessey winner of course, only raced further than 26f once, i think, second over four miles. Does appear as though Pipe is trying to keep rating low with runs over short distances against very good opposition.
Lastly, if a high rated horse does make the starting line in April- may be Halcon Genelardais-even though the handicapper is condensing the weights some very decent horses could be running with less than 11st but higher than recent OR winner ratings. Any thoughts?
#18
December 8th, 2008 19:12
Will be posting fulll Grand National 2009 Anti-Post review here around Wednesday.
I have looked at all the leading runners using many of the well known trends and already we can see a few that are worth looking at.
It strange but true that in most of the last ten years you could indentify the Grand National winner at this stage along with other selections even at this stage (Comply or Die was identifable this time last year)!
I will also post my Anti-Post best bet!!
Crisp cant wait for your update.
Admin can we have a new heading Grand National 2009 Anti-Post or something like it?
This year we are all going on a long cruise when we win!!!!
Ofcourse this could be one of those rare years when the winner goes agianst the trends – it will happen now and again.
#19
December 8th, 2008 21:00
Hello crisp – i was looking at celestial gold earlier in the season as a possible – but im almost certain he has been retired now
#20
December 9th, 2008 11:14
antepost….
#21
December 9th, 2008 14:44
A lot of horses currently listed on Betfair are running either at Cheltenham on Friday or in the Peterborough on Thursday;
Snowy Morning
Snoopy Loopy
Turko
Simon
One Cool Cookie
Garde Champetre
Parsons Legacy
Star de Mohaison
Irish Raptor
A New Story
Character Building
Always Waining
Trigger the Light
#22
December 10th, 2008 21:01
Ante-Post Grand National Review 2009
The aim of this review is to see if we can find a good Ante-Post bet on the Grand National at this early stage. Is it too early for this exercise? The answer is No, as the Grand National weights are published in early February (after which the weights are only changed if the top weight drops out but the weights will always reflect the OR of each horse in early February not March/April). At this point there is probably only time for a selection to run once more (twice at most if it is due to run prior to or over Christmas) and in most cases is likely to have its OR changed only a few points up or down.
Can we identify a good ante-post bet and could we also identify the possible Grand National winner for 2009? You bet we can!
We will use a set of 9 minimum trends that the Grand National winners needs and in most cases has achieved by this time in the winning year (of course other horses will come into the picture at a later stage but we are looking for the ante-post best bet at a good price).
These ten trends are:
1. OR 138 to 144 (136 to 147 can also be considered so allow for changes in th next month or so).
2. RPR (Racing Post Rating) of 144 minimum (this is a key trend) often neglected by many others.
3. TS (Racing post time rating) of 128 minimum (to win the GN you must have class and speed).
4. Won a Chase worth £17,000 or more.
5. Won three or more Chases (any type).
6. Age 8 to 12.
7. Has run in 10 or more Chases (any type) – we can at this stage consider 8 or more.
8. Won a chase over at least 24f (but 26f or more is best).
9. Won a Class1 or 2 Chase (one is best)
Of course there are other trends but we don’t wont t be too hard at this stage. Its amazing that only THREE runners from the first 44 (and 52 checked in total) in Odds Checker.com list meet all nine trends at this stage and only one is quoted by all four big Hight Street bookmakers (Hills/Lad/Tote/Coral) – see the list at the end of this post.
The review
Odds Checker.com list 44 horses with odds of 40/1 or less where no bookmaker lists the selection with even one 50/1. I have also looked at a few priced with just one or two 50/1 from the 21 bookmakers selected. Why are the odds so important? You will see when we look at the Grand National winners odds for the last 20 years (the last ten years listed below):
Odd 1st 2nd 3rd
2008 7/1JF 20/1 16/1
2007 33/1 12/1 33/1
2006 11/1 5/1JF 5/1JF
2005 7/1F 40/1 66/1
2004 16/1 10/1 40/1
2003 16/1 40/1 33/1
2002 20/1 10/1 8/1
2000 10/1 25/1 25/1
1999 10/1 25/1 25/1
1998 7/1F 11/1 8/1
In the last ten years 3 Fav or Joint Fav have won the Grand National and in the last twenty years (missing the void race in 1993) 4 Fav or JF have won. Its a myth that you can stick a pin in the list to find a giant priced winner. In the last twenty years 16 winners have been 20/1 or less on the day! In the last twenty years of the 60 horses that have finished 1st, 2nd or third only 14 were priced over 20/1- worth noting I think. And you will note that in the last ten years only one horse won priced over 20/1 (331 in 2007) on the day.
So we have checked the first 44 horses listed by Odds checker.com who are listed by Coral/Hills/Ladbrooks/Tote as not being over 40/1 and anther 5 who are listed as 50/1 by one or two of the four only. Of the 44 top horses we have:
12 are priced by all four high street bookies (most likely to run)
5 by3
12 by 1
11 by 0 (may not rum?)
The results are:
Meet all nine trends in my order of preference.
1. Butlers Cabin Or 138 (!!) listed by all four bookies 4/4. Must be on any short list!
2. Himalayan Trail OR 141listed by 2/4. Needs another 3 runs (should not be a problem).
3. Guard Champetre OR 144 listed by 2/4 . A bit of a Cross Country specialist.
Others who are close with a 138 to 144 OR rating in no order:
1. Klibeggan Blade OR 141 (TS 124 – a bit low). Listed by 0/4!
2. Chelsea Harbour OR 138. Needs a TS of 128 (currently 124). Listed by 4/4. (9th in 2008 GN – not a good sign).
Others to consider with OR 136 to 147
1. Slim Pickings OR 147. Needs another Chase win. Possible EW bet at best. Had his chance?
2. Parsons Legacy OR 146. My early selection last year! Listed by 1/4
3. High Chimes OR 140. Needs another win. listed by 0/4
4. Irish Raptor OR 136. Needs win Chase win worth £17,000 or more. Listed by 3/4.
5. Black Apalachi OR 146. Beechers Chase winners don’t win GN in same year (so far)! Listed by 4/4
There are 16 from the 51 runners I have not assessed in detail quoted by just one or two from the big 4 but all priced at 33/1 or more – I will update if I find a good one when I have time to look at these.
Recommendation.
1. Butlers Cabin at 20/1 – take it now as it is only going to shorten very soon (Lad has 16/1 already).
Sorry I cant find one bigger in price or more surprising but the bookies are getting very good at pricing up the GN.
Now what do you think?
#23
December 11th, 2008 10:25
I think Butlers Cabin is the best pick at the moment, but I dont want to go backing him at 20/1 with so many variables to still consider.
Ive backed a fair few of the others you mention though, as ive already mentioned. Good to see your work backs up mine (or viceversa)
Good work!
#24
December 11th, 2008 11:14
Some great research Systemsman, although I expected nothing else from you.
It was widely noted, I think even in commentary, from last year’s race that Butler’s Cabin was running well before he fell at Becher’s last year. As we know, horses who have fallen can come back and win the race (Hedgehunter for example).
Also, the horse was 8 in last season’s race, so shall be 9 going into the 2009 meeting. 9 and 10 year olds have won 5 of the last 6 Nationals.
Butler’s Cabin has won over Aintree, and obviously the National Hunt Challenge Cup win at Cheltenham suggests he has some class and has stamina.
However, would you agree that recent runs have been slightly disappointing? Plus, isn’t Butler’s Cabin a French horse, and we all know of their record in the race…
#25
December 11th, 2008 13:03
Amazing stuff systems man ….thats what you call a full research…. as the last fortnight has unfolded my top two now are high chimes and himalayan trail…
as jimmy boys states .. interesting to see uve tipped two french breds…how much emphasis should be put on the fact that butlers and garde have the dreaded (FR) against their names….! ill keep nibbling away at the chimes and himalayan trail in the meantime high chimes chance should be more obvious after the welsh nat…does anybody know hear the echos or .. is it really 149 ?
#26
December 11th, 2008 13:42
I make it 132 last time I checked Silver Birch.
If anybody is interested, I have a spreadsheet which some people may find useful.
Let me know and I will email it to those who want it.
#27
December 11th, 2008 13:52
The more i look at the possible runners then i have to agree with you SilverBirch. Already got on Himalayan and just had a price given to me for High Chimes by Bet365, waiting for Ladbrokes to get back to me (just small stakes for now but think the prices are going to only come down from now on for these 2)
#28
December 11th, 2008 14:37
75 on Betfair at the moment is High Chimes Brian.
#29
December 12th, 2008 00:46
Jimmy said about Butlers Cabin “However, would you agree that recent runs have been slightly disappointing?
Now if I owned him with a perfect 138 OR rating I would make sure it stayed that way – the last thing i would want would be to win or even come near to winning a good race (and that is whats been happening – so the connections are very serious about trying to win in 2009). Dont expect to see any form from this horse until after the GN weights are declared or even up until the GN itself (he does ofcourse need a 1/2/or 3rd sometime this year for the best trends profile)
Racing post comment on Butlers Canin in the Grand National 2008 “Butler’s Cabin, who was disputing the lead and still tanking along when he fell at Becher’s for the second time, where the same connections’ Clan Royal was carried out in similar circumstances three years ago. Although he had been bitterly disappointing since his wins in the 4m National Hunt Chase and the Irish Grand National last spring, he looked right back to form and might well have been involved”
The only down side is that he is French bred but ALL his racing has been in the UK or Ireland (won Irish National!). There will be many other good horses to add to our short list but Butlers Cabin has to be in it, French bred or not!
#30
December 12th, 2008 09:17
If we are talking trends though, we have to rule him out surely!! If we’re doing it by using common sense then we leave him in.
#31
December 12th, 2008 13:46
Interesting stuff on Butlers. How many French breds have got to the starting line with a good profile anyway? Not many. Encore un Peu, 2nd in ’96, only ran in 8 chases(I think) and was nine pounds out of handicap and beaten by a Gold Cup second on 10.7! In 2000 Dark Stranger was jf but hadn’t won over three miles, Mely Moss was second but hadn’t run all season. Edmond, jf in ’01 a low rating despite winning Welsh Nat, Blowing Wind, twice third but hadn’t won over three miles. Iris Bleu, only 7 years old, and Gingembre, 11st 9lbs, heavily backed in ’03, Clan Royal didn’t have right number of prep runs in ’04,’05 or ’06. Royal Auclair finished second in ’05 carrying 11st 10lbs(a plus for French breds I think, giving away 19lbs to bottom weight and nine pounds to Hedgehunter) Last year Butlers Cabin had a disrupted build up and only three prep runs. A good point of argument or just a long list of excuses!!
#32
December 12th, 2008 14:37
Lets just hope there are no GN trainers reading this blog. Now we’ve gone and told them exactly what they have to do to prep a horse for the best chance of winning, we’ll find ourselves in future years with all horses entered fitting the profile…
Its Himalayan Trail for me on the ante-post market.
Looking forward to 29 Jan when the real work can begin.
#33
December 13th, 2008 11:38
Hi guys,
some great comments on here since I’ve been away – thanks very much keep up the great work.
As usual some excellent stuff from Systemsman – Butlers Cabin must have a very good chance but I must just question one of your criteria. You say about only looking at horses towards the front of the market but surely at this point last year Comply Or Die would have been bigger than 50/1 if he was quoted at all? Shouldn’t we keep an open mind about all horses from a price persepctive at this stage and concentrate on other criteria? We wouldn’t want to miss out on the chance to back or trade on something that meets most of your criteria simply because it is a big price would we?
With this in mind I will start doing a weekly copy of the oddschecker and betfair tables so we can have a look back at the prices that have been quoted about the eventual GN winner and I will do this from the word go for next year – should be interesting to see what prices have been available.
I’ll be having a look at the Hennessy with a view to what effect its had on the National and taking a look at the early runs of some of the more fancied runners next week so keep a look out for that and keep the comments coming.
#34
December 13th, 2008 16:31
Another one for the list – ‘Standin Obligation’ Won five times over 24f-25f. Hasn’t tried a further distance yet.
#35
December 13th, 2008 20:06
Good try Crisp, Standin Obligation meets eight of the nine early trends I posted earlier. He does not however have a Chase win worth £17,00 or more (an important trend). He does have a Hurdle win worth 25K.
The other problem is that he is not listed on Odds Checker.com for the GN so we dont know if he is entered or intends to run yet.Cant recommend him yet I think.
Its a fact that eight from the last eleven GN winners met all the nine early trends I listed by this time in each GN year. If we lower the TS rating to 111 then it would be 10/11 (2005 Monty Pass was the odd one out only because most of its races in Ireland were not assessed for TS ratings).
Now this is mind bogglng.
All eleven of the last eleven GN winners had no higher than a OR rating of 144 earned by this date in their GN winning year (in fact its 135 to 142 for 10/11). So we shuld concentrate on all runners at this stage for the Ante-Post bet on runners with a OR of no more than 144 (135 to 143 best). Some one out there must disagree surely!
As a result I now have an ante-post bet on Himalayan Trail as well as Butlers Cabin (waiting for High chimes to be priced up).
Now there must be lots of other views on the best early ante-post bets out there?
Which are the three best Ante-post bets – cards on the table please?
Mine are.
1. Butlers Cabin OR 138
2. Himalayan Trail Or 141
3. High Chimes OR 141(when priced by a few bookies on Odds Checker.com)
I will come back on the higher priced runners next week some time.
#36
December 13th, 2008 20:08
Correction it should read “So we shuld concentrate on all runners at this stage for the Ante-Post bet on runners with a OR of no more than 144 (OR 135 to OR 142 best)”
#37
December 13th, 2008 21:33
So what about Garde Champetre? his chase OR is not quoted on the bhb web-site but his chase OR is 144 according to the racing post, is this his cross-country chase OR?
#38
December 13th, 2008 21:56
Texas Pete. It was OR Chase rating of 144(X-country or not is all the same as far as i know). But that its old rating before he won at cheltenham so i think he’s blown his OR for the GN now – waiting for the new OR later this week – can’t imagine it wont go up. Or am I wrong?
#39
December 13th, 2008 23:00
Your probably right systems man although i’m sure i read somewhere that the handicapper doesn’t put them up the full whack for these races.he was 144 for the cross-country race but i don’t know if he’d be that for a normal chase.After winning at cheltenham he probably has blown it now anyway!
#40
December 14th, 2008 13:30
Some more fab stuff, i steadfastly believe the OR stat on the GN winners is one of the strongest trends in the racing calendar year . I agree that at the mo there are only a few candidates who tick all the right boxes. Ive already lumped on himalayan trail and even more on high chimes. I will back butlers at some point in the new year as he cannot be left out of the equation. One other outside i Like is Darkness . he reminds me very much of complky or die in that he was a top novice and then got injured and has been dropped to 143 by the handicapper. i would think he also meets most of the key trends nd any one looking for a tasty outsider should consider him . Charlie Egerton has already stated that he has only one chance this season to win a “big one with him” . Ive interprested that as him knowing this horse is ultra well handicapped on his old form and once he wins hell shoot up the ratings. doesnt like soft ground though so may not see him until after the new year..anbody have any thoughts – is darkness the dark horse
#41
December 14th, 2008 13:30
Intersting article here on Himalayan Trail. Its clear that he is aimed at the GN 2009 so ante-post bets look safe other tha an injury.
“Mangan revealed today: “At the moment the plan is to take Himalayan Trail to Aintree for the totesport.com Becher Chase. He has the alternative of going to Navan for the Troytown Chase but at the moment the plan is Liverpool.
“We bought him at Doncaster Sale in May and he’s had a good summer. His owner has a farm just down the road so he spent the summer there and came back in pretty good shape.
“The horse ran in the Cork National with a huge weight, which was a big ask of him, but Davy Russell was very pleased with him. When he emptied out, Davy eased off and pulled him up. He needed the run but he also had to give two stone and more to some horses, including the winner, and that was an impossible task first time out.
“He ran a cracker to win the Midlands National for Sue Smith but he was only carrying 9st 9lb that day and he beat Badgerlaw who hasn’t set the world on fire yet.”
Mangan is hoping that Himalayan Trail can emulate Monty’s Pass and is looking for a big show at Aintree on Sunday.
He continued: “The whole idea behind purchasing him was to go for the John Smith’s Grand National. I think it’s vital to give them a little trip over the course and I think the totesport.com Becher Chase is the ideal opportunity. He’s improved mentally since Cork so I’m hoping for a very big run out of him.”
Came 5th in Becher Chase – a good prep run. Kept his OR 141 – just right for GN.
http://www.aintree.co.uk/news/mangan-primes-himalayan-trail-for-the-totesportcom-becher-chase-at-aintree/
Any more views on Himalayan Trail anyone?
#42
December 14th, 2008 14:18
Cards on the table systems man
1. Himalayan Trail
2. High Chimes
3. Darkness
4. Over the Creek
5. Butlers Cabin
6. hear the echo (maybe depending on or)
My top 5 at the mo – the order of fanciability may change in the next few months but ive bet the first 4 and i will also bet Butlers at a later date – if HTE has an or of 149 Its gonna prove very tough
#43
December 14th, 2008 16:00
Systems, I thought Standin Obligation might miss a few trends, so all he needs is a good win and a couple of more preps!
Well, I’ve been looking at national winners from the last fortyBasically picking out the best performance of each national winner or the performance that has most in common with any winners.
1.top 2 finish in the Paddy Power/Mackeson because of Gay Trip 70 and Specify 71- he did win over 3 miles but in two poor races and had fallen in previous National.
2.top 2 finish in a race over National fences/Topham/hunters/the old ‘Sefton’/becher etc.
3.top 2 in a national- American,Irish,Welsh,Scottish
4.won three races over 3miles or further.
5.top 5 hennessey cognac gold cup.
That’s it. I was a bit suprised that no winner had won, say, one or two long distance chases and nothing else. And half of them had National fences experience.
#44
December 14th, 2008 16:09
Sorry last post meant to say ‘the last forty years’ and I meant to add that to put it to a ten year trend, along with other trends, is a top 5 hennessey place or a top 2 National place or a top 2 aintree race place. No horse since Lord Gyllene 97, qualifies with just three wins at three miles.
#45
December 14th, 2008 18:20
Darness – what a great find Silver Birch.
You are right very, very similar profile to Comply Or Die – 3rd in the Sun Alliance Chase. If he runs then he must be in the current short list (but will he run in GN? and will he get the reqired number of prep races in before the GN?)
Meets eight of the nine early trends (has only 8 of the required 10 chase runs – not a problem with plenty of time for at least two more). Has a 3rd place this season, Best RPR of 156 and TS of 133 both very good.Won a Class 1 race (Grade 1 in fact. 50/1 with Coral – very tempting and will look super value if he runs.
#46
December 15th, 2008 18:18
Anyone with thoughts on D’Argent? Was a strongly tipped contender on these forums last year, has maintained his OR rating from last year, (141) and is due back on the track this weekend.
Is he worthy of consideration this year, or has his best chance gone?
#47
December 15th, 2008 21:54
D’Argent’s trainer, Alan King, has said on more than one occasion that his horse is not a GN horse and that he doesnt like running at Aintree.
That’s why I didn’t back him last year, when he fell, and why I wouldnt back him this year either.
Whilst he may have ‘met the stats’ sometimes you have to look past these.
#48
December 15th, 2008 23:40
D’Argent is not listed on Odds Checker.con for GN 2009 so it implies he is unlikley to run.
I am still working on the 40/1 and above and hope to have a report on by Thursday.
Can anyone find another little gem like Blackness spotted by Silver Birch?
I like your short list Silver Birch by the way, but both High Chimes and Over The Creek need another Chase win and a better RPR if possible, High Chimes and OTCreek need a RPR of 144 or more, currently HChimes best is 141, Over the Creek has a RPR best of 143 [only one point out so I may just give it the benefit of the doubt]. In only two of the last 12 years was a RPR of 144 not been reached by this date by the GN winner in its winning year).
#49
December 15th, 2008 23:58
I would be very interested on anyone’s opinion on Parsons Legacy. The only fault I can find is the current OR 146 rating (two more than best trends and four more than for my mid December trends) otherwis elooks good. I had him down on my short list last year.
If he was to lose a few OR points before the weights are declared he would have a very good profile (pity he won that race). Currently quoted by 8 out of 21 bookies on Odds Checher.com (best High Street price 33/1)
Any views out there?
#50
December 16th, 2008 09:42
I backed Parsons Legacy a long time ago. His run last friday wasnt ideal, but that can be attributed to the ground. I think he should run well if lining up this year
#51
December 16th, 2008 10:10
My worry with High Chimes is that he looks nailed on for a big run in the Welsh National, where he also, along with 3 or 4 others, meets the stats.
Where he to come 2nd/3rd in that race say, how much do people think he would go up in the weights?
#52
December 16th, 2008 12:09
Correction to my post on Parsons Legacy It should read “Parsons Legacy. The only fault I can find is the current OR 146 rating (two more than best trends) otherwise looks good. I had him down on my short list last year.
The best RPR of 153 is fine.
#53
December 16th, 2008 13:22
Good point Daniel – im hopin High Chimes can finish 3rd at chepstow . thereafter he would have a placed effort in a ” national” . Any closer and he risks ruining his mark…. i recKon if he wins were talking about 148/149 and if hes second maybe about 144 / 145 . so 2nd wouldnt be disaster but a win most certainly would …if he doesnt finish in the first 3 i think its good night vienna…not much margin for error here
#54
December 16th, 2008 13:34
Well done systems man – looking forward to your scan of the horses greater than 40s – if i wasnt so busy at work id have a go myself … i had some time on my hands a few weeks ago and thats how i unearthed darkness. I’m sure there may be another couple lurking further down that may meet most of the trends.. looking forward to your findings…
#55
December 16th, 2008 14:01
Ive looked pack through the previous Welsh Nationals and seen what the placed horses have gone up from following their run.
Obviously its all relative to how the rest finish, but I would think High Chimes would probably go to a mark no higher than 144-145 were he to come 2nd.
#56
December 16th, 2008 14:09
What about King Harald Systemsman?
Also, I noted elsewhere you mentioned that ideally a national horse should have won over 27f or further. Can you tell me which, or if not how many, of the last, say, 20 winners HAVE NOT won over this far, just so I can add it to my data.
Cheers!
#57
December 16th, 2008 17:28
GUYS,
I would like all the ante post comments to be placed from now on to the Grand National Ante Post thread – to encourage you I’ve got a little prize – the best ante post comment added to this thread by midnight 31st December will win a signed copy of Mick Fitzgerald’s Book Better than Sex
Please could you add your ante post comments/research/tips to the GRAND NATIONAL ANTE POST thread and NOT this thread but you can copy YOUR posts from this thread if you wish.
#58
December 16th, 2008 23:32
Hi Guys,I’ve just had a brief look at all your hard work and just want to remind everyone that to find the winner now you will have to be very lucky.Just a few stats that have held up for the last 11yrs 1.The winner will have to had 4-6 runs this season 2.It must have run within 49 days of the race.3.It must not have fallen/UR to many times in career.We cannot predict any of this yet so i will wait for the weights to come out before i start my shortlist.Oh and a message to DANIEL that OLD BENNY will be 8yrs old next year.Also im sorry but i won’t back a french bred as they haven’t won the race for donkeys years!!Butlers cabin will have Mr MCcoy onboard which is another NO No!!Bring on the welsh nat as its a good race for stats. Keep up the good work guys and MERRY XMAS
#59
December 17th, 2008 23:04
Hi Guys,What i’ve stated above still stands.But i do have a list of horses that could fit the stats come next april.What do you think of these guys? HEAR THE ECHO,HOT WELD,MATTOCK RANGER,MISTER TOP NOTCH,NEWBAY PROP,PRIESTS LEAP and ROYAL COUNTY STAR. Fancy looking into the stats on any of these ADMIN?