Comments on: Grand Sefton Chase 2008: Analysis

By: Daniel

Daniel — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 14:15:09 +0000

Character Building was a long way back last year though. I think if the ground gets testing, his stamina will give him a good chance though.

I quite fancy him for the national, but he’s not really an ante post price for me. Too many ifs buts and whatfors with still 5 months to go.

By: Jimmy Boy

Jimmy Boy — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 13:21:31 +0000

I’m going to follow the age trend to be honest. 9 of the last 12 winners were 6 or 7, and the top 4 in last year’s were within that range also.

Character Building was in the top 4 last year, and is only carrying 6 pounds more this year. He does have very good claims and could be a solid each way bet. However, I hope he doesn’t run a blinder and puts his rating through the roof, because it would be great to see him go off a nice competitive mark in the National if he’s aimed for it.

High Chimes at 9 years old I’m not sure about to be honest (I could be wrong, but can’t see it winning).

Daniel, I’m in agreement with you on Dear Villez and Alberta’s Run. I might even split stakes between the two of them.

By: Daniel

Daniel — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 09:49:57 +0000

A few 8 and 9 yos have won as well, but the key trend for me is to look for a horse with between 4-7 chase runs (9/10 stat) and at least 2 chase wins (10/10)

Once you add this to the age stat, I make it we are left with;

Ornais
Albertas Run
Air Force One
Dear Villez
Always Waining
Oedipe
Verasi
High Chimes
Royal County Star
Patsy Hall
Character Building

If you want to use the placed last time out stat (9/10) then it leaves you with;

Ornais
Air Force One
Dear Villez
Always Waining
High Chimes
Character Building.

Personally id rather do it the old fashioned way!

From that first list I would rule out on account of the SOFT GROUND

Air Force One
Always Waining
Oedipe

I would say Patsy Hall and Verasi are just not good enough for this race and Ornais probably makes too many jumping errors. Royal County Star jumped very badly at Sandown in his last testing race, so that would be a big negative against him for me.

Which leaves me with, my four of

Albertas Run
Dear Villez
Character Building
High Chimes

What do the rest of you think?

By: Daniel

Daniel — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 21:34:18 +0000

Also need to have won over 3 miles or further (10/10) which rules out Island Flyer amongst others. As you say 6-9 yos win and also those with at least 5 chase runs and 2 chase wins.

Im always weary of relying on the last run stat too much, as it has cost me a few winners this season!!

By: Jimmy Boy

Jimmy Boy — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 17:46:36 +0000

It’s going to be an interesting race.

Trends from recent year suggest we should be looking at horses aged 6 or 7 years old, which generally means second or third season chasers.

Also, recent winners were generally placed 1st or 2nd in their most recent run. This trend would rule out Alberta’s Run generally, however this race has been won twice in the last 3 years by the Royal&Sun Alliance winner, which was Alberta’s Run.

The winner is generally also found near the top of the betting.

Personally, with the stats and the ground possibly going soft I also fancy the chances of Dear Villez. He can handle the trip and the ground as he showed in the Munster National H’cap Chase.

By: Daniel

Daniel — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 17:16:05 +0000

I make Dear Villez my pick at the moment, with High Chimes and Character Building coming into contention if the ground gets soft or worse.

Albertas Run should go well I would think also.

By: admin

admin — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 12:06:02 +0000

Yes, Daniel the Hennessy looks like it will throw up loads of Grand National clues as usual.

Have a look at our Hennessy stats page – it may help when considering which horses in that race are likely to go on to Aintree.

http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/hennessey-form.php

I’ll try and do a full preview of the Hennessy this week.

By: Daniel

Daniel — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 11:39:27 +0000

On to the Hennessy now!

By: admin

admin — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 09:37:48 +0000

This turned out to be an interesting race but it appears that the changing of the conditions probably hasn’t helped this year with coaxing genuine Grand National contenders into the race.
The first three home all performed well but would surely have stamina issues if asked to step up to the full Grand National distance, although Endless Power and Brooklyn Brownie do have plenty of stamina in their pedigrees.
The race was robbed of its major interest with the incompletions of Gwanako and Regal Heights, both of whom could be at Aintree in April. Gwanako in particular is a strange one as he had jumped so well in the Topham but appeared to down tools going into The Chair and, if he did actually refuse and not just slip, then he would have to be a big question mark should he return to these fences.
The only other horse that potentially could line up is Ponmeoath who was well beaten and I’m not sure he enjoyed it. Possibly he could have been just given a look at the fences and a toodle round out the back (surely not!) but he really should have been a bit more competitive than that (especially on that ground) for it to be seen as a positive outcome.
So, all in all, not many positives for the National itself but a good performance by the winner.