Grand Sefton Chase 2008: Analysis
In the last five years the Grand Sefton has been won by horses with Official Ratings between 104 and 125 and (I am guessing here) it looks as if the conditions of the race have been changed as the highest rated horse in those five years ran off 130 and tomorrow Turpin Green runs off a mark of 158 – so we are now looking at quite a different type of race.
Consequently in those previous five years Forest Gunner has been the only horse of note to run in the Grand Sefton and then go on to make an impact in the Grand National – that may all now change that better horses are running in this race and the Grand Sefton could become much more significant.
Grand Sefton Entries: The Favourites
Of the sixteen entered Palarshan and Bill’s Echo both ran on Saturday so surely must be doubtful starters.
From the early betting that has been released it appears that Paul Nicholls and Nigel Twiston-Davies have the strongest hands in this race as well with Gwanako and The Hollow Bottom.
Gwanako won the Topham over course and distance in April and although ten pounds higher than that win this doesn’t look an overly competitive race and he did win first time out in a hurdle race last year. It was a great performance to win the Topham as a five year old and his claims look very strong here again today.
The Hollow Bottom is on a hat-trick at Aintree, although he is yet to try out the National fences. He does, however, face the starter 28lbs higher than when winning the first race of this sequence and he will do well to overcome such a hefty rise in the weights for winning two 9k handicaps.
Grand Sefton Entries: Other Fancied Runners
Of the others I’d have reservations about the ground for Regal Heights (needs it very soft), distance about Ponmeoath (would seem to need 3 miles) and jumping about Iron Man (failed to complete in three attempts at the course).
An outsider who may receive support is Bestofthebrownies. Howard Johnson guided Theatre Knight to placings in this race in 2006 and 2007 and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Bestofthebrownies step up on all previous form and perform well even from so far out of the handicap.
Nevertheless, Gwanako looks head and shoulders above this field.
Do you agree? Or do you have a strong fancy for one of the other runners? What about Endless Power or Brooklyn Brownie? Tell us who you are going to back.






This post has 9 comments
#1
November 25th, 2008 10:37
This turned out to be an interesting race but it appears that the changing of the conditions probably hasn’t helped this year with coaxing genuine Grand National contenders into the race.
The first three home all performed well but would surely have stamina issues if asked to step up to the full Grand National distance, although Endless Power and Brooklyn Brownie do have plenty of stamina in their pedigrees.
The race was robbed of its major interest with the incompletions of Gwanako and Regal Heights, both of whom could be at Aintree in April. Gwanako in particular is a strange one as he had jumped so well in the Topham but appeared to down tools going into The Chair and, if he did actually refuse and not just slip, then he would have to be a big question mark should he return to these fences.
The only other horse that potentially could line up is Ponmeoath who was well beaten and I’m not sure he enjoyed it. Possibly he could have been just given a look at the fences and a toodle round out the back (surely not!) but he really should have been a bit more competitive than that (especially on that ground) for it to be seen as a positive outcome.
So, all in all, not many positives for the National itself but a good performance by the winner.
#2
November 25th, 2008 12:39
On to the Hennessy now!
#3
November 25th, 2008 13:06
Yes, Daniel the Hennessy looks like it will throw up loads of Grand National clues as usual.
Have a look at our Hennessy stats page – it may help when considering which horses in that race are likely to go on to Aintree.
http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/hennessey-form.php
I’ll try and do a full preview of the Hennessy this week.
#4
November 26th, 2008 18:16
I make Dear Villez my pick at the moment, with High Chimes and Character Building coming into contention if the ground gets soft or worse.
Albertas Run should go well I would think also.
#5
November 26th, 2008 18:46
It’s going to be an interesting race.
Trends from recent year suggest we should be looking at horses aged 6 or 7 years old, which generally means second or third season chasers.
Also, recent winners were generally placed 1st or 2nd in their most recent run. This trend would rule out Alberta’s Run generally, however this race has been won twice in the last 3 years by the Royal&Sun Alliance winner, which was Alberta’s Run.
The winner is generally also found near the top of the betting.
Personally, with the stats and the ground possibly going soft I also fancy the chances of Dear Villez. He can handle the trip and the ground as he showed in the Munster National H’cap Chase.
#6
November 26th, 2008 22:34
Also need to have won over 3 miles or further (10/10) which rules out Island Flyer amongst others. As you say 6-9 yos win and also those with at least 5 chase runs and 2 chase wins.
Im always weary of relying on the last run stat too much, as it has cost me a few winners this season!!
#7
November 27th, 2008 10:49
A few 8 and 9 yos have won as well, but the key trend for me is to look for a horse with between 4-7 chase runs (9/10 stat) and at least 2 chase wins (10/10)
Once you add this to the age stat, I make it we are left with;
Ornais
Albertas Run
Air Force One
Dear Villez
Always Waining
Oedipe
Verasi
High Chimes
Royal County Star
Patsy Hall
Character Building
If you want to use the placed last time out stat (9/10) then it leaves you with;
Ornais
Air Force One
Dear Villez
Always Waining
High Chimes
Character Building.
Personally id rather do it the old fashioned way!
From that first list I would rule out on account of the SOFT GROUND
Air Force One
Always Waining
Oedipe
I would say Patsy Hall and Verasi are just not good enough for this race and Ornais probably makes too many jumping errors. Royal County Star jumped very badly at Sandown in his last testing race, so that would be a big negative against him for me.
Which leaves me with, my four of
Albertas Run
Dear Villez
Character Building
High Chimes
What do the rest of you think?
#8
November 27th, 2008 14:21
I’m going to follow the age trend to be honest. 9 of the last 12 winners were 6 or 7, and the top 4 in last year’s were within that range also.
Character Building was in the top 4 last year, and is only carrying 6 pounds more this year. He does have very good claims and could be a solid each way bet. However, I hope he doesn’t run a blinder and puts his rating through the roof, because it would be great to see him go off a nice competitive mark in the National if he’s aimed for it.
High Chimes at 9 years old I’m not sure about to be honest (I could be wrong, but can’t see it winning).
Daniel, I’m in agreement with you on Dear Villez and Alberta’s Run. I might even split stakes between the two of them.
#9
November 27th, 2008 15:15
Character Building was a long way back last year though. I think if the ground gets testing, his stamina will give him a good chance though.
I quite fancy him for the national, but he’s not really an ante post price for me. Too many ifs buts and whatfors with still 5 months to go.