Well done.

February 11th, 2009 at 3:26 pm

Gammers, interesting stuff with OR’s concerning Butlers.
I think the Irish have paid this year for several daylight robberies; Monty’s Pass won so easily he came back a year later with 17lbs more and still finished 4th; Hedgehunter didn’t need to race until he got to the elbow; No6 took candy from babies.
What will be interesting now is a performance which puts a horse well in on the day at these weights. I think Comply Or Die was rated something like a stone ‘well in’ last year on the day itself due to his Eider win.

crisp 73 Says:

February 11th, 2009 at 3:37 pm

Pablo- agreed about Brooklyn Brownie; won at 3miles, 2nd and 4th in a grade 1, second in a race over the GN fences, dam sire is Lafontaine(Papillon’s daddy), never fallen in 37 races, has already had 3 prep runs, won one of his last ten chases … as I said in earlier post just £737 short of the magic 17k chase victory. Maybe we could have a whip-round!!

Gammers Says:

February 11th, 2009 at 3:38 pm

Agreed Crisp. A win on Saturday for either Rambling Minster or Character Building could start to make matters interesting. I’ll be availing myself of some 40s on Rambling before the wknd.

Daniel Edwards Says:

February 11th, 2009 at 3:46 pm

kj Says:
February 11th, 2009 at 3:21 pm

Sure Daniel, but I imagine this year that with all the meetings abandoned due to the weather, alot more horses will have had less than the required 3 runs, is this correct?
If so, do you take from this that there are less horses that can win?
or as I am tempted 2 could be enough!

Fair point KJ. Thats why I said to meet the trends and not that it means they cant win. Whilst I dont think it impossible either of them could still win, I would like to see them run at least twice before the big day before I would think about backing them; once wouldnt be enough for me, as I find it hard to imagine a horse coming back from a 2 year or so break and actually running a true race (as opposed to a ‘he’ll come on for that’ sort of race)

February 11th, 2009 at 3:11 pm

Is it right that if either Snoopy Loopy or Exotic Dancer come first or second in any race at cheltenham then they are on for a £1m bonus if they win the national as well.

Surely that could be a very tempting offer for the connections of these horses if they manage the cheltenham part of it.

February 11th, 2009 at 2:39 pm

Okay folks, a quick look at who has been treated kindly or harshly by Mr Smith. Both the BHA and Racing Ireland have published their ORs for this week, so we can compare these with the nominal ORs assigned for the National.

Horses ‘well in’ on National OR:
Exotic Dancer 8lbs
War of Attrition 6lbs
Madison Du Berlais 5lbs
Snoopy Loopy 4lbs
Garde Champetre & Offshore Account 2 lbs
Nozic, Air Force One, Cloudy Lane, Snowy Morning, Oodachee, Dun Doire all 1 lbs

So the horses at the top of the list benefit from compression of the handicap, but still have to carry over 11′0. Oodachee and Dun Doire will not get in. So the only horses given an advantage by the handicapper are strong trends pick GARDE CHAMPETRE and Offshore Account.

Horses treated harshly on National OR:

Dix Villez 13 lbs more than current OR
Butlers Cabin 12 lbs
Ballytrim 11 lbs
Sea Diva 10 lbs
Chelsea Harbour & Hear The Echo 8 lbs
Black Apalachi, Priests Leap, Hoopy all 7 lbs
Mattock Ranger 6 lbs
Brooklyn Brownie, Tumbling Dice, Oulart all 5 lbs
6 Horses with 4 lbs penalty
3 Horses with 3 lbs penalty
5 Horses with 2 lbs penalty
1 Horse with 1 lbs penalty.

What to make of all this?

Firstly, you can see why the Irish trainers were up in arms about the weights they were allocated. Phil Smith must feel that the Irish Racing Authorities rank equivalent horses lower than their UK counterparts.

Secondly, for all those saying HTE and BA ‘done over’ by the handicapper – neither has been treated as harshly as Butlers Cabin who has 12 lbs to make up on recent form to even be on terms with other horses in the race. This, combined with recent poor form, has put me off him massively – and suggests his current price is far too short. (See, an arguement against BC not centered on the dreaded ‘FR’!)

Food for thought…

rocky again! Says:

February 11th, 2009 at 2:44 pm

briliant im glad ive backed the winner

One bad thing about GARDE CHAMPETRE is it comes from the back and could get brought down.

Normally horses that race up with the pace win this race-he doesnt

kj Says:

February 11th, 2009 at 2:52 pm

always has been an arguement against BC without the FR thing. Think Phil was “dreaming” giving BC the weight so Tony can ride him to glory! its the only reason for such a rise surely, if he just wanted to get him in the race he coulda had 5lb less.
Thanks for the list Gammers!
Interseting Offshore Account is now making an appearance with his topical economic name, must look into this one.
Tell me how does Cornish do in this analysis? noticed more people a bit interested in this one here too.

crisp 73 Says:

February 11th, 2009 at 2:58 pm

Dan Edwards- right about Parsons. So far so good. I read that Hobbs is looking forward to him taking part.

Trabolgan has been ruled out for the rest of the season according to Hemmings’ racing manager, another one of the list.

RE; Haydock Gold cup on Saturday; I think Rambling Minster(though there is some doubt about him running) needs to place, Character Building needs to win. Another placing over 28f would be great for Cornish Sett.

It will be very interesting to see how Aintree winner Endless Power gets on in the Racing Post chase,Feb 21st, first time over 3 miles. Great quote from his trainer about how he ‘doesn’t know how the horse get the last two miles but they’ve got to have a go’!

National seven weeks on Saturday so all fancies now need to run between now and March 21st- keeping in with trend since 1982 /
2-7 weeks/16-49 days since last prep run – Aldaniti ran 52 days before his win in 1981.(add in Aldaniti’s figures and the trend goes way back)

Gammers Says:

February 11th, 2009 at 3:03 pm

KJ – Cornish is racing from his correct mark.

February 11th, 2009 at 12:44 pm

A quick report. More at a later date.

My top three against the field (in no order)based on trends (pre Chritmas winner trends especiely) and Price Profile.

Note: Maximum weight is based on Cloudly Lane being top weight on 11.10 up 8lbs from current mark)

1. Southren Vic 10.01(min) 10.09(max)
1. Butlers Cabin 10.05 10.13
1. Himalayan Trail 9.12 10.06

Price Profile (big four High Street bookies). No 40/1 or over by any bookie on Odds checker.com

1. Southern Vic 33/1
1. Butlers Cabin 14/1 – 16/1
1. Himalayan Trail 16/1 – 20/1

Note: All three need a 1/2/3rd in a Chase over 25f or more this season so this list may change

Others later.

Wacky and Systemsman agree!! (Hear The Echo will be in the top 5/6 if he still gets in under 11.00 which i think is very doubtful – I have never been a fan as you know, nor am I keen on 8 year olds over 4miles +)

Best Lay: (not my thing but this one must make you money)

Big Fella Thanks 16/1 – 20/1 (taken loads of money in last 24 hours)

Fails on almost all trends!!

Notelppa Says:

February 11th, 2009 at 1:01 pm

I hate to say it systemsman, but with the exception of Southern Vic, I agree. It looks to me that the only tool Mr. Smith has at his disposal is oddschecker.com!! New trend, if a horse is favourite before the weights are announced, forget it, you’ll get too much weight. How can you give a horse who hasn’t run in a chase for about a year such a penalty? I’m already well ahead if BC wins so, I think I’ll get stuck in to Himalayan Trail. There’s a couple of 7yos at near the top of the betting to lay, Big Fella and Cant buy time.

Dan Says:

February 11th, 2009 at 1:10 pm

Systemsman – I backed HTE on betfair at 19’s but now with the weight it is likely going to run off I am not happy with my bet. Do you think it is a good time to Lay HTE and cut my losses?

Systemsman Says:

February 11th, 2009 at 1:16 pm

Notelppa fair points. The more I look at Southern Vic the more holes I can find (but this applies to all my selectons when I look at them too much!). The key must be a good place at 25f or more or else forget it. I do like a horse who has won over 27f or more and always worry about those that havnt.

I will be revising my short list as we go along – it may well change but is most likely to come from my longer list of about 8 to 10 I am down to.

I will post a longer list of six to eight later.

Both Hear The Echo and Black Apalachi (the one for the mud) got “done over” by the Handicapper and now stand little chance unless the weights stay the same (unlikely).

Systemsman Says:

February 11th, 2009 at 1:22 pm

Dan. I also backed HTE a day a or so ago(a half bet of my normal amount)based on the many fans on this site and now also regret it (moral: trust your own judgement)- but thats life.

HTE may still have a small chance if he can still get in under 11.00 but i doubt it.

Do you think it is a good time to Lay HTE and cut my losses?
You must make your own mind up on this based on a review of all known facts. If it was me I would – what do others think out there?

Dan Says:

February 11th, 2009 at 1:31 pm

I think the problem with Southern Vic is that it is likes heavy or soft ground and it has never run on good or even good to soft.

Daniel Edwards Says:

February 11th, 2009 at 1:39 pm

I backed Hear the Echo as well, but have managed to lay it off completely, so nothing lost.

I am now sitting sweet on Parsons Legacy (one that is being forgotten about a bit I think) Butlers Cabin and Garde Champetre.

However, my betfair page is showing only a worst case scenario loss for me of £1.27!! So, I shall be having a fair bit more on whoever takes my fancy in the coming weeks.

Dan Says:

February 11th, 2009 at 1:52 pm

Are we in agreement then that Hear the Echo faces a stiff task and is likely to carry in excess of 11st? Even if Exotic Dancer stayed in Mouse Morris was not happy wih the weight so that is off putting as well.

February 11th, 2009 at 10:16 am

State of Play- I’m a fan. I just think that if the weight rises more than 5lbs he will have to carry 11st, still good at the weights for a Hennessey winner, but he isn’t very big and he would have it all to do lumping that weight. I am convinced this is what trainer/ connections are concerned about

Pablo Says:

February 11th, 2009 at 11:32 am

Crisp I agree about State of Play and the weight but too late for me because I have backed him

They are making noises about running Exotic Dancer which would suit State of Play and other classy types (My Will etc)…

…but might prevent a few fancied plodders lower down the handicap like Character Building and Himalayan Trail from running

I thought that it would be easier without Denman but I don’t think it is

February 10th, 2009 at 11:07 pm

I hope he does get in kj

I take your point about what Phil might have been thinking and that may be the case. However, he can’t base it on guess work surely? He has to go with their best form in my eyes. If he is indeed thinking as you suggest then why has Butler’s Cabin been given a 12lbs rating change with Character? BC recent form has been awful compared to Character’s, why is he not thinking he has peaked? I do know what you were saying though and appreciate your input.

I just find it all very odd when you look at the form. Plus I am sweating that he makes the line up! Ha Ha.

Pablo Says:

February 10th, 2009 at 11:22 pm

My two concerns with Character Building are:

1) He hasn’t recorded a RPR above 143 (for instance Denman beat him 19 lengths in the Hennessy giving him the best part of 2 stone)

2) He hasn’t looked honest at the finish recently

I’m waiting for his next run before I make up my mind

Stephen Says:

February 10th, 2009 at 11:28 pm

To be fair though Denman should be beating him, Denman is rated 182 and Character is rated 140 (I realise they weren’t at the time).

The next run is the key. If he wins a big staying race such as the one he is in on Saturday then he could meet every single trend as he is on the cusp of some of them now. Very similar to the way Comply Or Die got to Aintree last year.

Pablo Says:

February 10th, 2009 at 11:37 pm

Agreed – should be a fascinating race