Grand National Tips 2009
Posted on February 12th, 2009 in Grand National 2009
Hi everyone,
Further to my post on the Grand National Ante Post thread I would be grateful if you all would start adding your Grand National Tips for 2009 to this thread now instead.
The other thread is just becoming too big! When it reaches that size it become difficult to manage and could be offputting for new readers so seeing as we have just had the issue of the weights, it seems a good time to start a fresh thread.
If all our regular contributors would be so kind as to give an overview of their current selections and the reasoning behind why they have made those selections that would be ideal. Also, a few general tips for the novice Grand National punter would also be very useful.
Thanks again for all your great input.
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This post has 1495 comments
#1
February 12th, 2009 12:32
I’ll start!
For those of you who dont know about the importance of stats in the Grand National;
To me the NUMBER 1 stat has to be;
1- AGE
No horse aged 6,7,1 or 14 has even PLACED in the GN since 1969. No horse any of these ages have won since 1940.
This makes age the most important stat in my book. It makes sense as you need to have experience to get round
such a tough test, and you need to be at your peak to mix with the best staying chasers around.
2- WEIGHT
If you look at those horses who place in the race, each year they tend to be weighted below 11 stone.
Since Corbiere in 1983, only Hedgehunter has won carrying more than 11 stone.
In the last 10 years, out of 72 RUNNERS carrying MORE than 11 stone, only 25 horses have FINISHED, and
only 7 horses have PLACED in the first 4. A 10% strike rate just for a place is not very good I think!
This relevance of this is obviously because it is hard to give weight to the rest of the field over such
4 and a half miles.
3- A WIN OVER 3 MILES OR MORE
This stat is true since 1970, and makes sense for obvious reasons! Any horse with insufficient stamina cannot
win the Grand National. I have put this one a bit lower due to KJC coming close last year, and of course the fact
you could feasibly have a horse who has never won over 3 miles but has finished 2nd over, say, 4 miles who by doing
so has proved he has the stamina.
4- RPR
Not less than 145 to be safe, although if you want to ignore Red Maurader’s victory as a fluke, then you can say not less than 148.
This won’t rule out many horses each year though I find.
5- DAYS SINCE LAST RUN
This one needs to be treated with a bit of caution as the goalposts are always changing. Before Hedgehunter, people said
the last run of a GN winner had to be within 45 days. Now this has become 48 days because of Hedgehunter. Personally I would
say a horse needs to have had his last run within a period of 14-49 days (or 2 -7 weeks) before the national. Do not rule out
a horse with a run 13 or 50,51,52 ish days before though purely on this basis.
Just doing the above 5 rules will leave you with about 10-14 horses, and then you can narrow down from there. It will have found you the winner in each of the last 20 years and quite possibly beyond!
Hope this helps!
#2
February 12th, 2009 12:34
I thought that it might be useful to look back over the last ten winners…
Grouped by profile (based on Racing Post Ratings – RPR):
Well-backed, progressive Irish National winners – Bobbyjo, Numbersixvalverde
Well-backed progressive Irish provincial National winner – Monty’s Pass*
Well-backed Irish invader with solid recent form – Hedgehunter*
Well-backed Irish invader with solid past form – Papillon
Previously injured horses with at or near career-best RPR comeback performances in run up to the race – Red Marauder*, Silver Birch* and Comply Or Die
Aintree specialists / McCain factor – Amberleigh House*
Consistent stayer with a series of 144 RPR runs – Bindaree
* = previous Aintree experience
#3
February 12th, 2009 12:39
Bindaree did have previous Aintree experience, sorry
#4
February 12th, 2009 12:55
Excellent start Daniel. Just one small point I have always worked on a RPR minimum of 144 (not 145) am I wrong? But as you say its normely a bit higher.
#5
February 12th, 2009 13:01
The emerging trend over the last ten years has been the six Irish winners, but interestingly this year many Irish trainers have complained that the handicapper has treated them harshly
Of the Irish winners all except Papillon had shown some form (RPR 144+)in the run up to the race (Southern Vic?)
Three of the last ten winners had spent a year or more out with injury but came back as strong as ever – possibly refreshed from a break (Fleet Street? very tenuous but I took the 300s on Betfair)
The two that stand alone are:
Amberleigh House who reserved his best for Aintree and only had to repeat his performance in that season’s Becher Chase (RPR 154) to win in 2004 (although Clan Royal might have been unlucky)
Bindaree who was consistent if unspectacular (Character Building?)
#6
February 12th, 2009 13:15
Please see the previous entries in the Ante Post thread for previous reports.
Thank you Stephen and Brody. To clarify my current list A is the list of 9&10 year olds not already eliminated, giving them a slight edge over 8,9 and 12 year olds who are in List B. Current lists are as follows:
LIST A
EXOTIC DANCER (FR) 9-11-10
CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02
WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-01
CHELSEAHARBOUR(IRE) 9-11-00
SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-00
CANE BRAKE (IRE) 10-10-13
ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13
COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12
STAN (NZ) 10-10-12
BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-10-11
PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-10-11
BALLYFITZ 9-10-10
KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 10-10-10
MIKO DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 9-10-10
MY WILL (FR) 9-10-10
L’ANTARTIQUE (FR) 9-10-09
STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08
MON MOME (FR) 9-10-06
BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05
HOBBSHILL 10-10-05
OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 9-10-05
REVEILLEZ 10-10-04
ENDLESS POWER (IRE) 9-10-03
GOLDEN FLIGHT(FR) 10-10-03
L’AMI (FR) 10-10-03
SIMON 10-10-03
CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-02
FLEET STREET 10-10-02
MUSICA BELLA (FR) 9-10-02
DARKNESS 10-10-01
SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00
HOT WELD 10-9-13
KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13
BROOKLYNBROWNIE (IRE) 10-9-12
CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-9-12
CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 10-9-12
HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12
TUMBLING DICE (IRE) 10-9-12
ARTEEA (IRE) 10-9-11
IDLE TALK (IRE) 10-9-11
ICE TEA (IRE) 9-9-10
MALJIMAR (IRE) 9-9-10
COMPANERO (IRE) 9-9-09
MATTOCK RANGER (IRE) 9-9-09
BAGAN (FR) 10-9-08
DIX VILLEZ (FR) 10-9-08
PATSY HALL (IRE) 9-9-08
LIST B
MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 8-11-08
SNOOPY LOOPY (IRE) 11-11-05
STAR DE MOHAISON (FR) 8-11-05
NOTRE PERE (FR) 8-11-04
NOZIC (FR) 8-11-03
AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (IRE) 11-11-01
IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 8-11-00
KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-10-13
OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12
HEAR THE ECHO (IRE) 8-10-11
ONE COOL COOKIE (IRE) 8-10-11
SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-06
PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-04
ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 8-10-03
FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-03
BATTLECRY 8-10-02
IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-01
RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01
SILVERBURN (IRE) 8-10-01
TRABOLGAN (IRE) 11-10-01
ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00
CERIUM (FR) 8-9-11
KELAMI (FR) 11-9-11
IRON MAN (FR) 8-9-09
NICHE MARKET (IRE) 8-9-09
BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 8-9-08
BIBLE LORD (IRE) 8-9-08
FLINTOFF (USA) 8-9-08
HOMER WELLS (IRE) 11-9-07
IN THE LOOP(IRE) 11-9-07
LIST Z
CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-01
OEDIPE (FR) 7-10-00
ZABENZ (NZ) 12-9-11
The next stage is based on the weights, which is complicated by guessing whether or not Exotic Dancer or Madison Du Berlais choose to line up. They will both go for the Gold Cup and general feeling is that this will be a race too much. Top weight could even fall to Cloudy Lane, currently on 11-2, which would raise all horses weights by 8 pounds. Horses carrying 11-3 or over don’t win nationals in modern times (1985 was the last time this occurred). So regardless of who is top weight we can immediately rule out:
EXOTIC DANCER (FR) 9-11-10
MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 8-11-08
SNOOPY LOOPY (IRE) 11-11-05
STAR DE MOHAISON (FR) 8-11-05
NOTRE PERE (FR) 8-11-04
NOZIC (FR) 8-11-03
Chances are both EXOTIC DANCER and MADISON DU BERLAIS will pull out after Cheltenham and weights will rise leaving several additional horses over the 11-3 mark. I am not going to totally eliminate those horses but they are falling into my doubtful lists – will track them in my further analysis but with lower ‘grading’ and more scepticism.
If just EXOTIC DANCER fails to show up weights will go up 2 pounds putting the following horses on unwinnable marks:
CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02
AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (IRE) 11-11-01
WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-01
The above are joining others in LIST Z.
If both EXOTIC DANCER and MADISON DU BERLAIS don’t run weights are up 5 pounds so the following join the above on 11-3 or more:
CHELSEAHARBOUR(IRE) 9-11-00
IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 8-11-00
SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-00
CANE BRAKE (IRE) 10-10-13
KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-10-13
ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13
COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12
OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12
STAN (NZ) 10-10-12
These poor souls are going into a new list, namely LIST Y.
Further weight analysis will be carried out once our choice of horses has thinned out somewhat.
I have spreadsheets and further comments on the above horses and lists if anyone would like them. E-mail called_andryka@yahoo.co.uk
At present there are 39 horses in LIST A (down 9), 21 in LIST B (down 9), 9 in LIST Y and 6 in LIST Z, 45 horses have been eliminated (a further six).
Later to today I will be removing those horses that won’t make the distance (a further fifteen!). Please let me know if the above doesn’t make sense.
#7
February 12th, 2009 13:15
Daniel Edwards RE Weight.
If my maths is right then horses under 11 stone have a 10% strike rate at places as well.
Don’t get me wrong i stick to the ‘No horse over 11-03′ rule but just thought you could of worded that bit better for new comers to the site as the reasoning you have given is mis-leading.
i.e you say 72 horses have carried over 11 stone in last ten year and only 7 have placed given a 10% strike rate.
That would mean 328 horses (400-72) have carried under 11 stone and got 33 (40-7) placings which is a strike rate of 10%.
#8
February 12th, 2009 13:24
Just shows, statistics are useless!!
Its not quite as simple, because some years have seen less than 40 runners, but I agree with your point.
I wouldnt back them for a win, and would be weary of doing so for a place, considering that in theory those higher up are the better horses and perhaps should be placing a bit more often.
#9
February 12th, 2009 13:25
Good work everybody
Keep it going Rascal, I am intrigued as to how your list is going to pan out.
#10
February 12th, 2009 13:29
Its actually horses OVER 11 stone 1 that have 7/72 in the last 10 years for a place. I will provide the stats for the last 20 years tomorrow.
Re: RPR, Red Maurader had 145 I believe Systemsman, I think. Next worst was Bindaree on 148. To be honest you can usually spot a horse with a low RPR from a quick glance at the formbook anyway.
#11
February 12th, 2009 13:32
My tips are based purely on gut instinct. I’ve never been too keen on stats as they are sitting there waiting to be proved wrong, and my tips often completely contradict these figures anyway. My gut is screaming Cane Brake to me. After watching this finish fast and late over 3 and a half miles last year it just had to be pencilled in for the Grand National and nothing I have seen since suggests otherwise. I have been nibbling at this from silly prices and will continue to do so. The other one I really like even though all the stats people will laugh at me is Gwanako, only a six year old ( too young ), and very inexperienced. Forgive his refusal at the Chair in Novemeber and he could go very close, again at silly prices. He has already won around the big fences at Aintree and just strikes me as a real National type.
#12
February 12th, 2009 13:40
Just looked at the decs for the big chase at Haydock on Saturday…
Character Building has AP booked to ride and the cheekpieces are on. They look to be gearing up for a big run
#13
February 12th, 2009 13:41
….Winners of that race have a shocking record in the GN though and im struggling to find a previous winner who’s even placed in it.
#14
February 12th, 2009 13:44
Big Fella Thanks- admirably summed up on previous thread by Systems. I didn’t even bother purchasing the apparently Holy Grail/ Racing Post Grand National weights edition as soon as I read that apparently serious journalists were quoting an inexperienced 7yr old as a good each way bet at 25/1. I would never dream of telling anybody what to do with their money but instead of putting it on Big Fella Thanks but there are some fantastic charities out there….
Black Secret, second in 1971 was the last 7yr old to get placed. Already a winner over fences, BS raced in the Kim Muir chase at Cheltenham as a 6yr old and won five chases in 70/71 season.
Plenty of 7yr olds have ran since, Ceol Na Mara was 5th in 76, had won four chases, Senator Maclacury was 5th in ‘81, had already won a Punchestown GN trial over 28f(may have been even further) Nadover’s 7th last yr was the best performance since ‘81. While I would hesitate to never to say never if a young horse is placed in the GN in the future it will be a very experienced young horse.
So, fancies at the moment? Cornish Sett, Parsons Legacy and Rambling Minster tick nearly all the boxes for me at the moment. Waiting to see on a few others like everyone else.
While I agree with Systems up to a point about horses in the betting
and SP’s on winners or on average lower than they used to be I’m not too worried about big prices at the moment. When you look at the top of the betting at the moment you could arguably rule out HTE, My Will, Snowy, Comply, Apalachi,Notre,Cloudy, Madison on weight, BFT and Cant Buy on age, and put big question marks by Character and Vic.
#15
February 12th, 2009 13:46
IM not worried about price either. We’ve had a 40/1 winner and a 33/1 winner in recent history.
#16
February 12th, 2009 13:53
Daniel Edwards Says:
February 12th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
Its actually horses OVER 11 stone 1 that have 7/72 in the last 10 years for a place. I will provide the stats for the last 20 years tomorrow.
The important stat for me RE weight is that no horse since corbiere in 1983 has won carrying more than 11-03 (corbiere had 11-04) i think when you start bringing percentages of placings into it then all it does is muddy the clear waters especially for new visitors to the site.
Apart from that great summary of how to narrow down the field and me choosing 11-03 instead of your 11-01 is just my preference as i like to give the stats a margin for error so to speak
#17
February 12th, 2009 13:59
A fair point Daniel about the race on Saturday. But wasn’t the same true of Eider winners last year and then look what happened
#18
February 12th, 2009 13:59
Ive just realised I wasnt actually clear on the weight point in my summary. I would allow up to 11_02, as I always like to give a slight margin, although I would much still prefer a horse below 11 stone.
#19
February 12th, 2009 14:03
Stephen Says:
February 12th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
A fair point Daniel about the race on Saturday. But wasn’t the same true of Eider winners last year and then look what happened
Very true!!!
#20
February 12th, 2009 14:47
The Grand National is a long-old haul and the class two-and-a-half milers do not fair well. Since 1970 all Grand National winners have previously won over 3 miles or further. Remember, we’re looking for the winner here and nice advance bet to get the best odds. So at this stage we can safely rule out:
IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 8-11-00
STAN (NZ) 10-10-12
ONE COOL COOKIE (IRE) 8-10-11
ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 8-10-03
SILVERBURN (IRE) 8-10-01
CERIUM (FR) 8-9-11
KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 10-10-10
L’ANTARTIQUE (FR) 9-10-09
HOBBSHILL 10-10-05
ENDLESS POWER (IRE) 9-10-03
MUSICA BELLA (FR) 9-10-02
CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 10-9-12
TUMBLING DICE (IRE) 10-9-12
ARTEEA (IRE) 10-9-11
MALJIMAR (IRE) 9-9-10
MATTOCK RANGER (IRE) 9-9-09
BAGAN (FR) 10-9-08
PATSY HALL (IRE) 9-9-08
IRON MAN (FR) 8-9-09
BIBLE LORD (IRE) 8-9-08
FLINTOFF (USA) 8-9-08
HOMER WELLS (IRE) 11-9-07
That’s right – KING JOHN’S CASTLE gets the boot at this early stage. Can we be confident of eliminating him at this stage since he ran a good second in last year’s race and many will be backing him in the weeks to come? I say this – we haven’t seen King John’s Castle since that Aintree race, he’s been out through injury. We’ll see how he fairs at Leopardstown this weekend (if it goes ahead). Otherwise it’s one prep run in Ireland for a horse yet to win in England. He’s carrying 10-10 at the moment, a pound less than last year but should we lose a few horses at the top of the weights he will be sneaking into dangerous territory. On last years run I’m not going to mock anyone backing KING JOHN’S CASTLE each-way but I want the winner and this is not it! KJC is eliminated.
Please note that I only have season stats for COMPANERO, MATTOCK RANGER, BAGAN, DIX VILLEZ, PATSY HALL, IRON MAN, NICHE MARKET, BEAT THE BOYS, BIBLE LORD, FLINTOFF, HOMER WELLS and IN THE LOOP. I am not too concerned as all are unlikely to run but if anyone can point me in the right direction for their career stats I would be grateful.
Our current lists as we head into the scoring stages of my analysis are.
LIST A (27 horses, down 12)
BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-10-11
PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-10-11
BALLYFITZ 9-10-10
MIKO DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 9-10-10
MY WILL (FR) 9-10-10
STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08
MON MOME (FR) 9-10-06
BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05
OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 9-10-05
REVEILLEZ 10-10-04
GOLDEN FLIGHT(FR) 10-10-03
L’AMI (FR) 10-10-03
SIMON 10-10-03
CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-02
FLEET STREET 10-10-02
DARKNESS 10-10-01
SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00
HOT WELD 10-9-13
KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13
BROOKLYNBROWNIE (IRE) 10-9-12
CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-9-12
HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12
IDLE TALK (IRE) 10-9-11
ICE TEA (IRE) 9-9-10
COMPANERO (IRE) 9-9-09
DIX VILLEZ (FR) 10-9-08
LIST B (13 horses, down
HEAR THE ECHO (IRE) 8-10-11
SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-06
PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-04
FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-03
BATTLECRY 8-10-02
IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-01
RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01
TRABOLGAN (IRE) 11-10-01
ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00
KELAMI (FR) 11-9-11
NICHE MARKET (IRE) 8-9-09
BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 8-9-08
IN THE LOOP(IRE) 11-9-07
LIST Y (7 horses, down 2)
CHELSEAHARBOUR(IRE) 9-11-00
SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-00
CANE BRAKE (IRE) 10-10-13
KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-10-13
ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13
COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12
OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12
LIST Z (6 horses, unchanged)
CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-01
OEDIPE (FR) 7-10-00
ZABENZ (NZ) 12-9-11
CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02
AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (IRE) 11-11-01
WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-01
We have eliminated 67 horses (a further 22 at this stage). That’s over half the field out based on simple age, weight and distance ‘givens’. In the next stages the true contenders will begin to emerge.
#21
February 12th, 2009 15:12
SportyGirl – I agree with the gut instinct bit and have also backed Cane Brake (even after finding that it was carrying 10′13 rather than the 10′1 error in my spreadsheet – would have been a much larger bet if that had been true).
If my gut instinct also matches my key trends then I’ll have more on nearer the time (although for some Cane Brake falls on the OR stat – which is clearly centred around the top weight who might be rated 159 or 166 – so why the OR range before we know what the top weight is? Also for OR purposes is Butler’s Cabin 135 or 147 and either way does he get in to the OR range or should he be left out based on OR?)
Like the OR range other trends quoted here are too prescriptive for me – like won a chase over £17,000. Some horses can run better and earn more for running into a place in a better race – good for owners that like the bigger meetings. (In practice most of these are decent horses and the £17k ‘rule’ is not an issue).
#22
February 12th, 2009 15:16
hi all, well i cannot believe this but all my bets are on and all my money done.does anyone agree that this year is very much different in finding the winner.i am not normally in this position but apart from my beloved butlers cabin nothing has stood out to me and all the leading fancies have negartives against them some big ( big fellow thanks)for one.i cannot beleive the super value you can get on horses in my opion with great chances and big enough to go e/w on them all.i normally have 4 backed but this year my money has gone alot further and i have 6.maybe i have had made the wrong choice not holding back and being ready for that usual late fancie that nearly always comes along but i really feel my gut instinct is right. time will tell.
1 butlers cabin 25/1 last year backed
2 cornish sett 100/1 last year backed
3 state of play 40/1
4 rambling minster 40/1
5 him.trail 40/1
6 garde champ. 40/1
have i done right or wrong lads,i am having many mixed thoughts but really beleive the winner is there,and at worst get placings and make a profit.
#23
February 12th, 2009 15:18
Here’s my beginners pointers for aspects of a horses’ profile to consider when trying to identify the winner. Note, this is not my shortlist or a rigorous list of factors which must be applied, but is useful to consider some or more of these factors;
1) Age – rule out 6,7,13+
2) Weight – immediately rule out anything 11′0 and over, consider ruling out 10′6 and over should weights rise. Rule out anything 9′8 and below as unlikely to get in.
3) Rule out anything with what appears to be a 6lb or more penalty based on GN OR vs actual OR.
4) Rule out anything with TS below 128
5) Rule out anything with RPR below 144
6) Rule out anything that hasn’t won at 24f or hasnt placed at 27f
7) Rule out anything that hasn’t won a class 1 or 2 chase worth a minimum £17k.
9) Rule out anything with 2 or more non-Aintree falls
10) Rule out anything with less than 2 runs in the current season
11) Rule out any Novice chasers
Strictly applying these 11 criteria would give a shortlist of 4; 1) Parsons Legacy, 2) Simon, 3) Rambling Minster, 4) Garde Champetre
The winner might not be in that list, but these are certainly the 4 horses that best fit the established trends.
#24
February 12th, 2009 15:28
Cane Brake also fits into the ‘off the track for ages’ profile of Red Marauder, Silver Birch and Comply Or Die
If he builds on his 3rd in the Lexus Chase (148 RPR) next time out he would be right back to near his best
#25
February 12th, 2009 15:29
How important is a higher than normal official rating to you guys? you see in previous years the higher the rating normally meant the more weight given so i think thats why we see OR’s between 135 and 144(because the higher rated horses with more weight could not carry it round) but this year a few horses meet all trends, have a great weight(below 11st) even allowing for a 5-7lb hike in the comming weeks but have an official rating of more than 144…..thoughts please.
#26
February 12th, 2009 15:38
Ok – with this list of now 28 does anyone want to let me know why a certain horse cannot win?
Do we discard any runners who have completed in a grand national but not placed in the first four? (What if we have a more improved horse that has finished out of the top 4 and has improved this season?)
Do we take out any runner that has not won at least 2 chases (trend is 3 but time for one more win)? Is this a strong enough trend? Why cant a horse win with only 2 chase wins?
Is it safe to take out any runners bigger than say 50/1 in the antepost market?
I know some of you (Wacky) will discount all french breds but is this wise?
#27
February 12th, 2009 15:42
We can’t back them all
we want good odds and our best fancies based on our best information and knowledge. It will be a lot easier on the day when we know what top-weight is and who’s done what over the coming months but i say if you have a system that’s worked in the past then stick to it and get your money on now.
#28
February 12th, 2009 15:42
I am with you on all 4 points there Dan.
#29
February 12th, 2009 15:47
Character Building fans – AP McCoy booked for Saturday
I’ve already laid off my GN bet on CB – maybe a tad too soon…
#30
February 12th, 2009 16:05
Character Building is fighting for favouritism in that race at the moment. If he wins I think there will be a lot of money lumped on him.
For one, if he wins the race he will meet all the stats and will be going off on a ver nice low weight. Secondly, he’s a grey, and the ladies love a grey.
#31
February 12th, 2009 16:12
Ryme no reason I like your picks, see below
My five against the field and therefore the ones I would ‘tip’ if I was inclined to do tips:
Character Building 4pts E/W @ 33/1 25/1
Its probably all down to Saturday for this horse a good run and it looks well in at the weights for a place run at least, I’d say he got the best deal out of all from the handicapper. Solid consistent stayer, never fallen ever or UR only PU once. Never finished outside the top 4 in any race and has run well against top opposition, 2nd Butlers over 4miles at Chelts, 3rd behind Denman with Madison in 4th. Really fancied this last year has been campaigned with one target the GN, made sure I was on early this year.
Garde Champetre 4pts E/W @ 40/1
Love this horse I’m firmly on the bandwagon, it’d be great to have a first female jockey in Nina win it too. Got on entry list day, have always liked the horse and as soon as I saw him on the entry list my money went down quick before the price tumbled. Stays longer than the mother-in-law, very sound jumper and as the price tag suggests has a nice touch of class to compete in this company. Given luck in running can’t see him out of the first 4 home. The Silver Birch parallel is also very encouraging. Finally think this was given an absolutely cracking weight to win off.
Southern Vic 4pts E/W @ 33/1
Not a horse I fancied at first but backed on the advice of a few very knowledgable people, also ran my trends through it and like its profile alot ticks most of teh boxes nicely. Irish trained always a bonus too and Ted Walsh is a man who knows how to win this race. Likes soft ground so nicely covers that option if it should come up soft on the day. Again this one has been very well treated by the handicapper.
Butler’s Cabin 8pts win @ 20/1
Loved his run last year before Beechers as he was cruising comfortably. McCoy will be back on board so safe hands there, only negative for me is the huge hike in the weights was hoping he’d run off near bottom weight. Backed to win as he will either bolt up, fall or eat the starter. Yes the horse has previous of being a bit of a nutter. As for the FR thing Best placed French bred horse since 2000:
2000: Mely Moss – 2nd @ 25/1
2001: Blowing Wind – 3rd @ 16/1
2002: Blowing Wind – 3rd @ 8/1
2003: Montifault – 5th @ 33/1
2004: Clan Royal – 2nd @ 10/1
2005: Royal Auclair – 2nd @ 40/1
2006: Clan Royal – 3nd @ 5/1
2007: Liberthine – 5th @ 40/1
2008: Nadover – 7th @ 125/1
Himalayan Trail 4pts EW @ 33/1
Check out his Mids national win, ok he beat average opposition but the little bugger is still motoring on after 4miles and doesn’t put in a single bad jump, if it retains all that ability its gonna run a big race. Also transfering from Sue Smith to Jimmy Mangan is like going from Bristol City to Man Utd can’t have done the horse any harm. Has jumped round the national fences in the beecher in ground he would have hated too.
Hasn’t shown much recent form but Irish trainers like Mangan and Walsh are a bunch of fiddlers with their horses, they don’t show their hand before the big one, you sometimes have to take a leap of faith and don’t get too tied up in recent form, check out his horse Monty’s Pass finished 4 of 4 in a average hurdles race before thrashing everything and I mean thrashing. Mangan’s GN horses don’t always show it on the track they do their work at home. Now check the history, Papillon did nothing the same season before bolting up. Bobbyjo won one hurdles race and FA else before the big one!
Now I could be completely wrong and the horse is shot and will run no sort of race, but at 33/1 I think there is plenty of value there even just for place money.
Also like the following and have added to my list of ones to watch in case they put in a good show or there is a big market move for any of them:
Battlecry – needs a good run soon
Beat the Boys – probably won’t get in
Companero – probably won’t get in
Cornish Sett – unplaced horses don’t come back and win, genreally
Fleet Street – needs a good run soon
Ice Tea – probably won’t get in
Rambling Minster – will he run?
Lets hope we all do as well as last year I reckon about 90% made a good profit last time, personally got the winner and 2 places from 5 runners
Regards
Ian
#32
February 12th, 2009 16:17
crisp 73 Says:
February 12th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
Black Secret, second in 1971 was the last 7yr old to get placed. Already a winner over fences, BS raced in the Kim Muir chase at Cheltenham as a 6yr old and won five chases in 70/71 season.
Ah, well done Crisp, now there is a name for the nostalgia lovers amongst us – Black Secret. I’m sure he might have got one of my first 10p each ways in this great race! Sorry, I got carried away there……
I came on primarily just to comment on this from Dan
Dan Says:
February 12th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
Is it safe to take out any runners bigger than say 50/1 in the antepost market?
Personally I would be keen to remain open minded pricewise as I would have thought that some of the more recent previous winners might have been the subject of quite a sustained gamble (I am guessing here) and will have shortened dramitcally from this sort of time till post time. As I say I can’t be sure but I wouldn’t be certain that horses such as Papillon, Montys Pass and Silver Birch would have been excluded if you had exercised the 50/1 barrier at this stage in their years.
Perhaps someone has that info – I seem to remember reading a bit about this on another thread?
#33
February 12th, 2009 16:34
Thanks Admin.
I am very open minded about a horses price. I think it was systemsman who said no bigger than 40/1 but cant be sure.
There could be a horse trading at 66/1 at the moment and might win a race at the weekend and be given a price of 20/1 or something.
#34
February 12th, 2009 16:37
Brody
Agree that Bobbyjo and Papillon didn’t show much in season of National win, but Monty’s Pass showed progressive chase form
RPR in first column
Bobbyjo (Irish-trained – Carberry)
141 Jan 98 2nd Pierse Chase G2 (3m)
153 Apr 98 1st Irish Grand National (3m 5f)
156 Apr 99 1st Grand National
Didn’t show much in his runs after his Irish National victory (153) but that performance marked him out as a serious contender and was heavily backed down to 10/1
Papillon (Irish-trained – Walsh)
164 Apr 98 2nd Irish Grand National (3m 5f)
150 Feb 99 1st Newlands Chase G2 (2m)
156 Apr 00 1st Grand National
Strong performance behind Bobbyjo in 98 Irish GN, but no show in 99 Irish GN under top weight (reportedly lame). Didn’t show much in his runs at a variety of trips and handicap marked subsequently dropped a few pounds before being heavily backed in the few days before the race from 33/1 to 10/1
Montys Pass (Irish-trained – Mangan)
142 Apr 02 2nd Aintree Topham Chase (2m 6f)
148 Sep 02 1st Kerry National (3m)
162 Apr 03 1st Grand National
Good performance in Topham (142) bettered by Kerry National victory (148) in run up to very impressive National win – well fancied at 16/1
#35
February 12th, 2009 16:41
Admin, i know for a fact Silver Birch was a 100/1 at this time of the year when he won. not sure about the other 2 but would hazard a guess they were bigger than 50/1 at this time of year.
#36
February 12th, 2009 16:44
I did say;
Is it safe to take out any runners bigger than say 50/1 in the antepost market?
So I will take the answer as No!
#37
February 12th, 2009 16:52
do any of you guys know where you can watch recordings of previous races for free?
i normally use rpr web site but all those 20p’s are mounting up i must have looked at 100’s of races over the past 2 weeks…….i just need to see how my final fancies normally run to make a final decision
#38
February 12th, 2009 16:54
I watch last year’s over on bbc sport – don’t know what they’ve got on previous years. you tube for clips.
#39
February 12th, 2009 16:58
Copy and paste this link to watch last years race
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/7332762.stm
#40
February 12th, 2009 17:12
attherace website – free when you register
racingpost only does racing uk at 20p a spin
#41
February 12th, 2009 17:14
At the races is free puzzled, not got every race but will have some of them!
#42
February 12th, 2009 17:16
attheraces i meant
#43
February 12th, 2009 17:26
on the bbc horse racing page trying tying the name of a horse in the search area
for instance i tried “notre pere” and they have a replay of the Welsh National
not sure how far back the replays go (certainly have the grand nationals going back a few years i think)
#44
February 12th, 2009 17:28
thanks guys i will check that out.
would you consider state of plays OR of 150 to high (as it goes against the stats)…..even though he might run off 11st give or take a 1lb either way if the weights were to rise….just a thought
#45
February 12th, 2009 17:37
as was posted on the other thread the OR range has been consistent for trends pickers because the top weight has varied by only 3lb since 2002
should the top weight be above 158 (which it might be) then I can see no reason why the OR range should have to remain the same
in fact the OR is potentially misleading – weight carried is the better trend i would suggest
#46
February 12th, 2009 17:42
should say the OR of the top weight has varied by only 3lb since 02 (155 to 158)
the trends OR range is potentially misleading should the top weight rise appreciably to 166 for example (should Exotic Dancer)
#47
February 12th, 2009 17:43
The Grand National course consists of 30 jumps, some pretty gruelling especially in a tightly packed field, so it makes sense to be on a solid jumper and avoid any temperamental sorts. So in this section I am scoring List A horses with 5 points if they have no career falls or unseated riders, 4 points for one career fall or unseated rider, 3 points for 2 career falls or unseated riders and eliminating those with 3 or more career falls or unseated riders. List B will be categorised in the same way but with one point less. Similarly Lists Y and Z will be listed in the same way but with one point less.
I only have season information for Companero, Dix Villez, Niche Market, Beat The Boys and In The Loop. For the time being these horses have been allocated 4 points in List A and 3 points in List B as none of them have fallen this season. If anyone has their career stats I would be delighted to update my guide.
The results:
LIST A
No Career Falls (5 POINTS)
STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08
GOLDEN FLIGHT(FR) 10-10-03
FLEET STREET 10-10-02
DARKNESS 10-10-01
HOT WELD 10-9-13
KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13
BROOKLYNBROWNIE (IRE) 10-9-12
CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-9-12
HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12
One Career Fall or No Season Falls (4 POINTS)
BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-10-11
MY WILL (FR) 9-10-10
MON MOME (FR) 9-10-06
BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05
REVEILLEZ 10-10-04
L’AMI (FR) 10-10-03
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00
ICE TEA (IRE) 9-9-10
COMPANERO (IRE) 9-9-09
DIX VILLEZ (FR) 10-9-08
Two Career Falls (3 POINTS)
PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-10-11
BALLYFITZ 9-10-10
OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 9-10-05
CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-02
SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01
ELIMINATED HORSES – MIKO DE BEAUCHENE, SIMON, IDLE TALK
LIST B
No Career Falls (4 POINTS)
PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-04
BATTLECRY 8-10-02
RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01
ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00
One Career Fall or No Season Falls (3 POINTS)
SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-06
FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-03
IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-01
TRABOLGAN (IRE) 11-10-01
NICHE MARKET (IRE) 8-9-09
BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 8-9-08
IN THE LOOP(IRE) 11-9-07
Two Career Falls
KELAMI (FR) 11-9-11
ELIMINATED HORSE – HEAR THE ECHO
LISTS Y & Z
No Career Falls (3 POINTS)
(Y) CANE BRAKE (IRE) 10-10-13
(Y) ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13
(Z) CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-01
(Z) OEDIPE (FR) 7-10-00
(Z) ZABENZ (NZ) 12-9-11
(Z) AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (IRE) 11-11-01
(Z) WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-01
One Career Fall (2 POINTS)
(Y) COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12
(Y) OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12
(Z) CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02
Two Career Falls (1 POINT)
SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-00
ELIMINATED – CHELSEA HARBOUR, KNOWHERE
So we have eliminated another 6 horses through this process and some big names have fallen at my fifth hurdle – notably current favourite HEAR THE ECHO who has been badly treated in the handicap to boot and will likely run off over 11 stone. Last 2 races – sixth at Leopardstown over 3 miles ‘no extra before last, kept on same pace’, 5th in Nacan over 2m7f ‘no extra in sixth 2 out, left moderate 5th, kept on one pace. No wins in England. He’s out for me – sorry H T E fans.
I am also happy to lose MIKO DE BEAUCHENE, SIMON and IDLE TALK. MIKO DE BAUCHENE has unseated in his last two outings, SIMON has taken his chances in this race before (might place but remember we’re after the winner), it is tight as to whether IDLE TALK will get into the race – he has apparently been primed for the National but since we won’t know if he’s in until a week before (most likely) it seems silly to back him now.
CHELSEA HARBOUR and KNOWHERE were already in my dubious list and have both tried the National before. They go in the elimination pile which is now up to 73 (47 remain).
More tomorrow and a surprise leading contender early in my analysis – it’s not BUTLER’S CABIN.
#48
February 12th, 2009 17:45
i agree Pablo i also think that the weight will be more important than the OR, i just wanted oppinions before i start tweaking the stats
After all the OR is just the offical rating, if a horse is rated 1-3 points above what we have seen in previous years then maybe this needs to be looked at if it is carrying a weight under 11st, it should not be discounted lightly
This year i think that there are so many “nearly” stats horses that the winner just might be making a new stat for next year.
#49
February 12th, 2009 18:16
Systemsman Says:
February 12th, 2009 at 11:42 am
Unfortunaely for Tom segal I always keep back copies of the weights day Racing Post (an essential for any serious GN study).
Systemsman , Can you tell me the position that Amberleigh House was in the betting in the RACING POST WEIGHTS EDITION
Thanks
#50
February 12th, 2009 18:42
Keep it up Rascal. Loving the work and it makes for an interesting read.
#51
February 12th, 2009 18:56
Brody loved your short list (on the other thread)other than Character Building (unless he wins a big race soon, then he’s in!)- mine is very similar. More and more I like GARDE CHAMPETRE (running at Cheltenahm in X- Country no problem).
#52
February 12th, 2009 18:59
Don’t horses have to have been placed or won in a Hennessy, Irish Nat, Scots Nat, Welsh Nat or a race over the National fences though systemsman?
#53
February 12th, 2009 19:23
‘Im Back’ so watch out you French Lovers!!Thanks KJ for sending posts to my prison cell!!I’ve had time to read up more on the race in the prison library and i think some of you could do with a bit of time inside!!! I want to know why anyone that follows the trends have Butlers cabin,Hear the echo,Black apalachi,Comply or die,Snowy morning,Big fella thanks,Character building,Cloudy lane,Madison Du Berlais,My will,Notre pere,Chelsea harbour,Exotic dancer,Hot weld,Kings john castle,Garde Champetre,WOA,Star de mohaison and abbeybraney on there shortlist?I will be laying as many of these as i can so i can sell the cafe and chippie and buy a casino!!!!I only have 3 horse on my shortlist and they are all still trading at 33/1!! ‘I’LL BE BACK’with them when i feel i’ve filled my boots enough!!Just sent jane down the bookies to get another 50p e-w on them with Bianca’s tips from the Cafe!!!! ian
#54
February 12th, 2009 20:14
I already fancied Garde heavily but for him to get 10-0 was superb,only major worry has to be it’ll prob be a female jockey-Nina Carberry-well capable in the x-country races but don’t know if she’d win the national
#55
February 12th, 2009 21:00
Rambling Minister
A quote from his last race where he carried 11-8 to victory on new years day “The well-backed RAMBLING MINSTER dug deep under maximum pressure on the run-in and landed his first success since winning over4m last season. His proven stamina came to the fore when it mattered most. This was his highest winning mark to date, so it has to rate as a personal-best display. However, he is now an 11yo, and a rise back up in the handicap will likely scupper a follow-up bid, but he will no doubt continue to pay his way”
Does anyone have aview on this?? I think carrying 10stone now makes him a great bet for the National
#56
February 12th, 2009 21:23
I thik somebody (maybe pablo) mentioned it but i think reveillez deserves a mention
10 chase runs
3 chase wins
won over 25f
or 146
non french
won a chase greater than 17k
10-4 to carry
ts up in the 140s
rpr in the 160s
only thing wrong is he has had only 1 run this season
im amazed nobody else has mentioned this horse
if he comes back to form in his next race hes a ridiculous price
#57
February 12th, 2009 22:00
Quick Question-Does anyone know if Parsons Legacy is going to have 2 more runs before the big day?If not i will have to put a big ? against its chances.Last 11 winners have all run at least 4 times and most had run 6 times.Can anyone tell me what Kilbeggan blades best TS figure is please? Ta ian(rambo)Beale
#58
February 12th, 2009 22:01
Johnny – RAMBLING is still holding NUMBER 1 on my list,
as I carefully make and re-make my selections – GO FILL YOUR BOOTS.
Dan – yes absolutley I would disregard the odds factor. ALL other stats are based on facts: age, weight, runs etc – whereas odds are estimates by bookies – yes they’re worth watching as a pointer – but not as a set trend – Silver Birch (on whom I won at odds of 100/1 +) blows the odds, as a premanent trend, out of the water.
Puzzled – go to http://www.youtube.com – type in grand national and the year you want and they will all come up for free.
Got a REALLY good feeling guys that we are gong to be back at same stage as last year – again with some variances – but the winner in NEARLY ALL of our shortlists.
Well done ALL that we needed a new thread!!
#59
February 12th, 2009 22:27
Birchy – I gave Reveillez a mention on the other thread.
Could be JP’s sneaky horse of this years race, proven quality, but lightly raced due to injury. The big question mark is whether he is fully recovered.
Runner up to Hot Weld in the 2007 Whitbread, and with a best RPR of 160 this horse could be running off a very nice weight. Only 1 run in the last 2 years and was PU – this is the big risk; is he fully fit and JP / Jonjo hiding the home form to land a KJC style gamble, or is he well past it?
If Reveillez is still involved after Cheltenham (and esp if he has a good prep) the 100/1 currently on offer will look a massive price.
#60
February 12th, 2009 23:06
Showlad, Rambling Minster is on my short list too so will be going out tommorrow to get some 40/1 while it lasts.
I agree that price is a guide only and if you want the winner every year ignore it.
If you want a short list early at big prices you have too take a few risks – me I will settle for 8 wins from every 10 years (80% strike rate)if i can get to that point with the help of this great web site. Therefore I think anything above 50/1 now unless it comes in quickly is probably not going to win (I will go further and say any horse with more than one 50/1 quote with the big four, Tote, Corals, WH and Lad is not going to win and ofcourse I will be caught out once or twice in every 10years on this but I will still have a short list faster at big, big prices.
Its up to you – wait and get a low price (so many missed the 20/1 on Butlers did they not?) or get in now for the bigger prices (my top six bets are already on – a record for me this early).
#61
February 12th, 2009 23:09
Good Call Gammers – i immediately thought he could be the kjc type horse for this year .. i couldnt beleive his price on betfair …as u say its bit of a gamble but at the prices on offer u cant go wrong .. i will keeping an eye on this one leading up to cheltenham – old jp knows how to pull a fast one .. this could be the one this year …
what a great hand he has this year with butlers , garde , kjc . lami , cant buy time and this fellow..!
#62
February 12th, 2009 23:23
Well guys and girls after having a few to many SOUTHERN comforts in the queen VIC and alot of RAMBLING at some MINSTER that came into the cafe i’ve been left with two horses that are carrying my money this year!!!I also like Kilbeggan blade and Cornish sett but feel that they can get placed at best.Good luck and its free french fries for all at the chippie when one of them win!!!Regards Ian(rambo)beale .-)
#63
February 13th, 2009 00:14
I have just come across a message on the betfair ante post forum regarding rambling minster,stating that the owners are interested in going for the national. How true this is, i don’t know but its some positive news. (information by rhinestone). This horse fits all the trends and more and more people are starting to notice this. Very nicely weighted for the big race, not too sure about this weekends race at haydock on heavy ground.
#64
February 13th, 2009 01:34
Alanham I heard exactly the opposite that Rambling owners aren’t keen on the race! But just a rumour I have no concrete evidence to back that up, enough for me to keep a watching brief until someone can give some concrete positive reports of him being a definite from the yard. Anyone?
#65
February 13th, 2009 02:26
BRILLIANT SITE THIS. Thanks to all for your hard work, given for free.
Are there any stats on ruling out runners who have failed to complete(fell,P.U or U.R.) 2 or more times in the current season?
#66
February 13th, 2009 10:08
To all you Rambling Minster fans;
His record in C1 chase’s is as follows;
Mar ‘07 finished 9/23 off a mark of 132 in the William HIll Trophy at the Cheltenham festival. This came after a win in a C2 chase off a mark of 124, so an 8lb rise.
Apr ‘07 PU in the Scottish National off the same mark.
Jan ‘08 6/20 over 24f(not too bad, granted) off a mark of 141.
So why do people think he can win the Grand National of a mark of 143? Somebody tell me why, without making reference to the stats.
#67
February 13th, 2009 10:10
I forgot to mention, Kilbeggan Blade beat Rambling Minster comfortably in the London National at Sandown, and Kilbeggan Blade 6lb better off when they meet at Aintree!
#68
February 13th, 2009 10:11
Again I ask…
Doesn’t a horse have to have been in the top 4 in either the Hennessy, Irish Nat, Scots Nat, Welsh Nat or a race over the National fences?
I can’t seem to find where Rambling Minster has done this?
#69
February 13th, 2009 10:49
Stephen Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 10:11 am
Again I ask…
Doesn’t a horse have to have been in the top 4 in either the Hennessy, Irish Nat, Scots Nat, Welsh Nat or a race over the National fences?
I can’t seem to find where Rambling Minster has done this?
MOST (not all) of the last 28 winners have done this. I think it was Crisp73 who provided us with this stat, so ill leave it to him.
#70
February 13th, 2009 10:58
Points in favour of Rambling Minster:
1) 1st in class 2 chase Jan 09, beating Character Building by 3 lengths. Reopposing off 4lb worse terms but a good form indicator. King Harald and Noir et Vert beaten in same race.
2) 1st in class 2 chase Dec 07 off top weight over 32f.
3) A sound jumper, with no F’s or UR’s in his record
4) Current OR and RPR ratings are the best in his career indicating a horse at the top of its form and possibly open to further improvement despite age of 11.
To provide a bit of balance the downsides would be his previous Aintree form (well beaten by Fundamentalist) and performance in the Scottish National.
On balance, a horse that ticks most of the boxes (what horse has the perfect profile after all?) and at 40/1 excellent value even if there are a few lingering doubts.
I don’t think there is any horse in the 120 that we couldn’t pick holes in, but this horse has fewer than most.
#71
February 13th, 2009 11:04
Those are all fair points Gammers, but he to me looks like a horse who will always fall short at the top level.
I dont like backing horses that haven’t placed or at least ran really well in a C1 race before; I cant remember who the last horse to win the GN without having done so. It must have been a long time ago.
You need CLASS to win the GN. This horse hasn’t showed me he has it yet
#72
February 13th, 2009 11:11
Just of a few observations about the horses we seem to be interested in, what I think they need to do to fit trends/profiles;
Butlers cabin – top 4 in a chase
Rambling Minster , Kilbeggan Blade, Garde Champetre – to be placed in a Grade 1 chase
Southern Vic – a 3 mile chase win, preferably over 28f (as has no form in Hennessey or Nationals, did unseat in race over GN fences)
Character Building – G2 win worth 17k
Simon – a 3mile chase win, preferably over 28f (no form in Hennessey, Nationals, races over GN fences)*Little Polveir fell twice in GN before winning in 89.
Silver Birch – if taking into account his point to point win, at least one more run over fences.
Hot Weld – two prep runs and previous two winners with two prep runs or less, Aldaniti 81, and Miinnehoma 94, also won one of their preps over fences.
Slight negatives for;
Cornish Sett- no unplaced horse has come back to win since Rag Trade ‘76 though Little Polveir unplaced before his two falls. CS did have wind op’ though and this has had an obvious improvement on his previously questionable stamina, won Badger Ales, 2nd in Welsh Nat.
Himalayan Trail – only Rough Quest, since 1990 has had two non finishes in winning season.
State Of Play – will probably have to race off at least 10-13 may be 11-1/ connections unsure about running if weights rise. Hedgehunter did win off 11-1 but bottom weight was 10-5. Bottom weight likely to be no higher than 10-2. Only Papillon has carried 12lbs or more than bottom weight since 1988.
What they needed at this stage, the last ten winners;
08 Comply Or Die- chase win in his final prep, had gone 9 chases without a win.
05 Hedgehunter – top 4 in a chase
00 Papillon – top 4 in a chase
#73
February 13th, 2009 11:15
Quick question crisp about the weight.
If as you say bottom weight is 10-02 would i be right in thinking that if using your method for the max weight to be carried by the winner will it be 10-13?
#74
February 13th, 2009 11:18
Systems I agree generally re price gauge, but would say to again temper it with some GN knowledge. After a quick scour at anyting over 50s with the main 4, check to see that there are no diamonds in the rough. In SB’s year, for sure I found one – a previous Welsh nat winner, returning slowly but surely to form, a class act similar to BC – And if I saw any of such calibre again I would include them. This year for me there is one more such horse.
RAMBLING fans: I think we have to go with this official quote just after weights announced – he’s looking good :
Keith Reveley (Rambling Minster 10st 1lb): “That sounds good enough to me and we would have a fighting chance of getting in off that.
“That would be a smashing weight so we’ll see how things go between now and then and if he’s in good form, we could give it a go.
“He’s entered at Haydock at the weekend but that must be a bit doubtful but I’d like to give him another run or two before the National.”
Now I have ONE BIG FAV to put to the table – can anyone source any quotes from Enda/info re the likelyhood of GARDE participating?
STATS FANS anyone having difficulty re ‘Best TS figures’ etc and a horse’s race history, go to:
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/racing.sd?r_date=2009-04-04#top
Then click on ‘card’ and the GN field appears.
Now the IMPORTANT bit I think most are missing out – for ALL the detailed and up to date info on a particular horse, then click on the particular horse’s NAME in the runners list and a page dedicated to that horse with all the history and in-depth stats, opens up.
#75
February 13th, 2009 11:35
As a fan of Rambling Minster I nevertheless agree with Dan Edwards, and think that the Minster needs to place(Dan is it top 3 or 4 not quite sure!) on Saturday or it would need to run in another G1 before the big day.
Stephen; the last eleven winners have all had top 5 form in Hennessey, top 3 in a Irish, Scots or Welsh National or a top 2 in a race over GN fences. 15 of the last 18 winners also have this profile. Those that hadn’t had won at least three chases at 3 miles with one of those wins at 28f or further. The last winner not to share these profiles was Specify in 71. He had two wins at 3miles and was second in the Paddy Power, called the Mackeson back then, and fell in a Hennessey. ‘Silver Birch’ made the point about including those that had ran in these profile races. I think only Lucius, Ben Nevis(still not quite complete research), Hallo Dandy and Lord Gyllene in the last thirty years had not contested a profile race. Still researching and will post at some stage a more complete list.
#76
February 13th, 2009 11:41
I will double check my stats Re: a place in a C1 race, and get back to you.
#77
February 13th, 2009 12:35
crisp 73
Bloody hell Crips just when I was getting very confident aout my short list (soon to be posted)I’am now all nervous and full of doubt. But you make very important and excellent points about many of the top fancies (excellent point on Himalayan trail x2 fail to finish but my money is already on).
Much to see and watch in the next few weeks.
Me I still think OR 136(9.08 – current weight) to OR 144(10.02)is where the winner is (and OR 146 Max)! Stand with the “trends” my friends (its a bit like the “Force” in Star Wars).
#78
February 13th, 2009 12:40
From Racing Post website…
Trainer John Quinn is confident Character Building can secure his first success over fences in almost two years in Saturday’s race.
Having made a winning reappearance over hurdles back in November, the nine-year-old went on to run creditably in two competitive handicap chases at Cheltenham before another pleasing runover hurdles at Doncaster.
He returns to fences over a more suitable trip on Saturday and with champion jockey Tony McCoy deputising for the injured Dougie Costello, Quinn is hopeful his charge should make his presence felt.
“We’re happy enough with him and you would think conditions at Haydock should suit him down to the ground,” said Quinn.
“We were happy with his run over hurdles at Doncaster lasttime and he has come out of the race in good form.
“Unfortunately Dougie’s injured and that’s why your man is riding him. He’ll do the job I would say.
“We’d be hopeful he’ll run a big race.”
Character Building is currently on 9st 12lb for the Grand National at Aintree following the publication of the weights earlier this week, meaning he will have his work cut out to get a run.
“Obviously he needs a good few to come out of the race but you never know,” Quinn added.
#79
February 13th, 2009 12:44
crisp 73
Dead keen to know what your list is. Love your work on past winners which I have filed away for future use.
I will post mine tonight.
#80
February 13th, 2009 12:44
Right, the last ten winners have ALL finished in the TOP THREE in AT LEAST ONE C1/G1 CHASE prior to winning their Grand National;
Comply or Die 2 (Sun Alliance & a Novice Chase)
Silver Birch 1 (Welsh National)
Numbersixvalverde 1 (Irish National)
Hedgehunter 2 (Welsh National, Novice Chase)
Amberleigh House 2 (Grand National, Novice Chase)
Montys Pass 6 (Kerry National x 2, Munster National x 2, 2 handicaps
Bindaree 5 (Tommy Whittle, Welsh National, 3 Novice)
Red Marauder 1 (an additional 1 over hurdles as well)
Papillon 1 (Irish National)
Bobbyjo 2 (Irish Mational, Punchestown GC)
Earth Summit 4 (Welsh National x 2 Scottish National, plus one other
A note of caution perhaps; 4 of the last ten had only done it once, so it may be broken.
#81
February 13th, 2009 12:45
All interesting stuff guys. Although he is a fine horse, I can’t understand why there is a strong view for Garde Champetre, fiollowing the (FR) breeding argiment, which is a strong one. I would back Black Apalachi and Hear the Echo but for the likley weights rise. As of now, the three that interest me (noting some are big fans of number of runs in a season) are State of Play, Trabolgan and Reveillez (mentioned earlier by another chap). And I agree that Rambling Minster and Kilbeggan Blade are worth a second look – Hot Weld would be interesting if he made it in too. The strange thing (also as pointed out elsewhere) is that King John’s Castle (2nd last year) has never won over 3 miles or further.
I have been working on a spreadsheet going through each trend per runner and would be happy to share it with anyone prepared to help me refine and finalise it (Systemsman for example?).
#82
February 13th, 2009 12:50
mornin,comply or die scoped dirty,non runner weekend.
possible problem for pipe team.had planned to put head gear back on.
also enda bolger says like to run garde champetre fresh.is 20 odd days enough break.
just bit of info for thought
#83
February 13th, 2009 12:52
Great work Crisp…….very important stats, just a thing with the National stat, i thought i read somewhere on the old thread that a horse only had to have run over national fences and you said have a top 2 place…..could you confirm please.
Right i am off to apply these stats to my final 8…
#84
February 13th, 2009 13:12
Systems, you’re nervous!!! I’m very surprised that so few winners needed to prove anything at this stage, 7 weeks’ish until the race!
Brian; I’m only writing what I’m seeing about the weight. Since the modifications to fences after 89, I make it that the average weight carried by the winner has fallen from 10-12 to 10-8. Five horses carried 14lbs or more than bottom weight to victory from 70-89, even leaving out Red Rum’s two wins of huge weights, compared to none since 1990.
#85
February 13th, 2009 13:17
Well Hennessey,scots,irish, etc,etc stat applied and all 8 still stand, i was hoping it would help knock at least 2 out…. so my search continues.
4 of my last 8 are down to run tomorrow, so i guess things might be a little clearer come tomorrow evening.(weather permitting)
#86
February 13th, 2009 13:21
oh, I almost forgot, going back to the 11_01 stat, taking it back further, since and including 1990, 9 horses have placed carrying more than 11_01, although as we saw, 7 in the last ten years show it is becoming more frequent.
#87
February 13th, 2009 13:27
CLASS OF HORSE
Unclassy horses don’t win Grand Nationals anymore. Year on year the standard of entries has risen – one of my memorable victories, BOBBYJO, would not have made the cut in any of the last seven runnings (thanks to the Racing Post for that source of information). In the last ten years the official rating (OR) of the winning horse has been between 136 (Bindaree) and 144 (Hedgehunter). This year’s national has attracted a record 16 entries with an OR of 155 or more (8 more than last year). It is generally perceived that the reason for these entries was due to the possibility of Denman running but that is no longer the case so expect several further withdrawals. However it is fair to assume that the OR of the 2009 National winner might be higher than recent trends suggest. Let’s investigate this further and score our remaining candidates accordingly.
The sixteen entries with OR’s of 155 or more are:
157 AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (IRE) 11-11-01
158 AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 7-11-02
155 CANE BRAKE (IRE) 10-10-13
156 CHELSEAHARBOUR(IRE) 9-11-00
158 CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02
166 EXOTIC DANCER (FR) 9-11-10
156 IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 8-11-00
155 KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-10-13
164 MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 8-11-08
160 NOTRE PERE (FR) 8-11-04
159 NOZIC (FR) 8-11-03
155 ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13
161 SNOOPY LOOPY (IRE) 11-11-05
156 SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-00
161 STAR DE MOHAISON (FR) 8-11-05
157 WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-01
Only 6 of these remain out of my exclusion zone at the moment and of these all six are in lists Y and Z as they will be carrying too much weight should EXOTIC DANCER or MADISON DU BERLAIS or both withdraw.
AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS was definitely entered in the hope that DENMAN was going to run. Barring setbacks CANE BRAKE and CLOUDY LANE will both run. I do not have a current source on ROLL ALONG’s plans. Based on OR trends and the unlikely chance of their making the starting line up I am eliminating three more horses – AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS, SNOWY MORNING and WAR OF ATTRITION.
Now let’s categorise the remaining horses (those in Lists A, B, Y and Z) and score them according to where they fall in the region of our OR marker 136 – 144.
155+
155 CANE BRAKE (IRE) 10-10-13
158 CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02
155 ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13
150 – 154
150 – STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08
153 – BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-10-11
152 – MY WILL (FR) 9-10-10
153 – PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-10-11
152 – BALLYFITZ 9-10-10
154 – COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12
154 – OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12
145 – 149
145 – GOLDEN FLIGHT(FR) 10-10-03
148 – MON MOME (FR) 9-10-06
147 – BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05
146 – REVEILLEZ 10-10-04
145 – L’AMI (FR) 10-10-03
147 – OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 9-10-05
146 – PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-04
148 – SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-06
145 – FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-03
140 – 144
144 – FLEET STREET 10-10-02
143 – DARKNESS 10-10-01
141 – HOT WELD 10-9-13
141 – KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13
140 – BROOKLYNBROWNIE (IRE) 10-9-12
140 – CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-9-12
140 – HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12
142 – GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00
144 – CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-02
143 – SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01
144 – BATTLECRY 8-10-02
143 – RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01
142 – ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00
143 – IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-01
143 – TRABOLGAN (IRE) 11-10-01
143 – CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-01
142 – OEDIPE (FR) 7-10-00
135 – 139
138 – ICE TEA (IRE) 9-9-10
139 – KELAMI (FR) 11-9-11
139 – ZABENZ (NZ) 12-9-11
137 – COMPANERO (IRE) 9-9-09
136 – DIX VILLEZ (FR) 10-9-08
137 – NICHE MARKET (IRE) 8-9-09
136 – BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 8-9-08
135 – IN THE LOOP (IRE) 11-9-07
Looking at this list even from a purely percentages point-of view it looks like we need to shift the historical 136-144 trend to a 140-149 outcome. Stats don’t lie unless you make them though so horses with an OR between 140 and 144 are being awarded 3 points, those with OR’s between 145 and 149 will receive 2 points, ORs of 136 – 139 and 150 – 154 get 1. Harshly those above 155 get nothing extra here and IN THE LOOP is eliminated, falling below our minimum expectation of the winner’s OR.
So four horses have been eliminated based on Official Ratings 77 leaving us with 43 contenders. By the end of today you will see this diminish to a list of 26, one of whom will WIN the 2009 John Smith’s Grand National. I will call my final 26 LIST EN.
Laters…
#88
February 13th, 2009 13:27
Hi Puzzled, what is your final 8?
Daniel, looking forward to seeing you evolving list.
#89
February 13th, 2009 13:33
Cheers Crisp.
I know you stated it earlier on the other blog but couldnt find it among the many posts on there.
I think its an excellent observation by yourself and am keen to apply it to my own trends for finding the winner this year.
Just wasn’t sure how much more than bottom weight you included in your findings.
#90
February 13th, 2009 13:55
Back on the old thread
Systemsman Says:
February 4th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Dan “The last 10 winners all had at least 3 runs BEFORE the weights came out. Is it too risky therefore to put a line through those that only have 2 runs come weights day”
Dan trends can and do change slightly from year to year! (last year the “blinkers myth” was destroyed). I think every now and again we will all be caught out but not too often i hope.
So min two runs prior to weights coming out would be the safe option (but three best).
I think that this is a VERY IMPORTANT stat to keep in mind.
Showlad i will post what i hope is a final list of 5 once i have done a little bit more work…and like i said after the Blue Square tomorrow i hope things will be a little clearer.
#91
February 13th, 2009 14:17
What date on old thread, puzzled, there tons of entries, lol.
Thanks
#92
February 13th, 2009 14:22
Interesting once again Rascal. Keep it up mate!
#93
February 13th, 2009 14:31
Showlad as posted above 4th Feb at 12.29pm…..i copied it
#94
February 13th, 2009 14:31
Dan Edwards, thanks for top3 G1 info. I’m now assuming that all winners since 1990 fit that stat due to having contested similar races. Will try and check asap.
Systems, I think you’re assumption of OR146 or less for the winner is a very fair guess.
My very shortlist, at the moment is Parsons Legacy and Cornish Sett.
Others on currently long list of those fitting winner profiles; State Of Play, Mon Mome, Butlers Cabin, L’Ami, Rambling Minster, Kilbeggan Blade, Endless Power, Garde Champetre, Character Building, Brooklyn Brownie, Himalayan Trail. Still agnostic on FR question though!
There are several more that are good on current trends that I think need a 3mile or long distance win/place to get me really interested; Southern Vic, Fundamentalist, Simon(interestingly nearly back to his OR 143 racing post win in ‘07 after being as high as 153)
#95
February 13th, 2009 14:53
Thanks Puzzled but only post u made on old thread on 4 Feb was re Fundamentalist. No worries.
#96
February 13th, 2009 15:03
crisp 73 Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
Dan Edwards, thanks for top3 G1 info. I’m now assuming that all winners since 1990 fit that stat due to having contested similar races. Will try and check asap.
Just to complete;
Lord Gyllene 2 (Midlands National, Novice Chase)
Rough Quest 3 (Racing Post, Gold Cup, Hennesey)
Royal Athlete 1 (Gold Cup)
Miinnehoma 2 (Sun Alliance, Welsh National)
Party Politics 2 ( Welsh National, Hennesey)
A 15/15 stat. Im not too sure about Seagram though. I havent checked his record, but I dont think he raced over here much?
#97
February 13th, 2009 15:05
Just remembered Seagram came 3rd in the Racing Post, and Mr Frisk has twice played in the Hennesey.
Maybe Little Polvier is the last winner not to have placed in a C1/G1 race previously.
#98
February 13th, 2009 15:10
CLASS, STAYING POWER and AT HOME AT AINTREE
Following on from my previous post class horses win the Grand National in modern times. All ten the last decade’s winners had won a race worth £17k or more prior to their Grand National trend. I am eliminating those horses that do not fit this trend. I appreciate there are nearly 2 months to go before the big race day but I am confident in omitting the following:
Staying Power. My next stage is to award points to horses who have career wins over 4 miles (the Grand National is 4m4f). We want to reward those with proven staying power so it’s 2 points for every win over 4 miles. The following horses climb up the ladder of contention:
4 points HOT WELD 10-9-13
4 points COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12
2 points BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05
2 points HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12
2 points SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-06
2 points RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01
I am also awarding half a point to horses for every win over 3 miles (discounting the 4-mile races above) and to reflect comfort running at Aintree there is an additional point for horses that have registered a win at the track (regardless of which fences were jumped.
With this done I am now merging the four lists to create a league table of the horses in contention. We have the following result.
14.5 HOT WELD 10-9-13
11.5 KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13
11.5 RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01
11.0 HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12
10.5 SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-06
10.0 GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00
9.5 STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08
9.5 DARKNESS 10-10-01
9.5 BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05
9.5 ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00
9.0 MON MOME (FR) 9-10-06
9.0 COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12
8.5 FLEET STREET 10-10-02
8.0 CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-01
7.5 GOLDEN FLIGHT(FR) 10-10-03
7.5 REVEILLEZ 10-10-04
7.5 L’AMI (FR) 10-10-03
7.5 BATTLECRY 8-10-02
7.5 OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12
7.5 OEDIPE (FR) 7-10-00
7.0 BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-10-11
7.0 BALLYFITZ 9-10-10
7.0 CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-02
7.0 SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01
7.0 PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-04
7.0 FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-03
7.0 TRABOLGAN (IRE) 11-10-01
6.5 IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-01
6.0 MY WILL (FR) 9-10-10
6.0 OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 9-10-05
5.0 PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-10-11
5.0 CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02
4.5 DIX VILLEZ (FR) 10-9-08
4.5 ZABENZ (NZ) 12-9-11
4.0 KELAMI (FR) 11-9-11
4.0 CANE BRAKE (IRE) 10-10-13
3.5 NICHE MARKET (IRE) 8-9-09
3.5 BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 8-9-08
3.5 ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13
All horses below a score of seven will be eliminated leaving us with LIST EN – 27 horses (sorry, I miscounted before), one of which WILL WIN THIS YEAR’S GRAND NATIONAL. I hope your current investments all show in the list which will follow with best current prices for each horse.
#99
February 13th, 2009 15:14
sorry – eliminated horses based on the 17k trend:
BROOKLYNBROWNIE (IRE) 10-9-12
CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-9-12
ICE TEA (IRE) 9-9-10
COMPANERO (IRE) 9-9-09
#100
February 13th, 2009 15:24
Trainers comments below regarding Character Buildings chances at Haydock tomorrow. Victory here would give him a fantastic profile and will see him shorten to one of the favourites for the National.
“We’re happy enough with him and you would think conditions at Haydock should suit him down to the ground,” said Quinn.
“We were happy with his run over hurdles at Doncaster last time and he has come out of the race in good form.
I am already on Character Building but will be backing him again prior to the race tomorrow.
Comply and Die has been ruled out of the Haydock race as the stable are not happy with him.
#101
February 13th, 2009 15:31
Wait until after the weekend Rascal as Character Building could romp away with the Haydock race
#102
February 13th, 2009 15:33
Rascal wot is Character short of 17K, a few hundred?
I would exclude him at peril. CB has to be in GN mix in my book.
#103
February 13th, 2009 15:35
Great stuff Dan. Little Polveir won Scots National in 87! Must check West Tip and Hallo Dandy, Maori Venture was 3rd in Hennessey in ‘86, Last Suspect was 3rd twice in Irish Nat. I think we may have got a very good 25 yr trend here!
#104
February 13th, 2009 15:41
My final post will come after the weekend so if Character Building does come home at Haydock I will reassess prior to my final selections being made available. Promise
Thanks for your support Stephen.
#105
February 13th, 2009 15:46
And ive just realised they were ALL over a distance of 3 miles or more WITH THE EXCEPTION of Red Marauder (His was over 20f) although I consider his win to be a bit of a freak result due to the extreme weather conditions.
In fact, for those who like 9/10 or 19/20 stats, only Montys Pass had not placed in a C1 race over a distance FURTHER than 3 miles.
I think that stat alone would rule out a heck of a lot or horses this year!
#106
February 13th, 2009 15:55
Sorry for the above post, which duplicates one earlier that I had missed!
If we are looking at a possible shift in OR this year due to the compression of the handicap as it stands, we would probably allow 136 – 149 to be safe. This would be a 12/12 stat if we go back to 1997 when Lord Gyllene won off 149 and in 1998 when Earth Summit won off 147.
It is also worth studying the “win in Class 1 0r 2″ stat. 10 of the last 12 winners had actually won a class 1 race, so this could help in narrowing down the shortlist further.
10 of the 12 winners also finished in the top 5 in their final prep race, the last 11 winners were either winless or had one win during the current campaign.
Did I read on here somewhere that all recent winners had won a race within the last 18 months, unless injured for a long period? If this is the case, surely Butlers Cabin needs to win before the Grand National as his last win was in April 07.
#107
February 13th, 2009 15:58
Prices on my 27 against the field are given below. Hot Weld has emerged as the surprise leading contender but the final analysis is not yet done. On Monday many in this list will be axed! I will give details as elaborately as I can and let you know who I think will win this year’s Grand National.
If you’re desperate for a bet today then my advice is an each-way bet on the Irish horse Trabolgan at 66-1 and, of course, take the 16’s on Butler’s Cabin for the win if you missed the 20’s.
Otherwise, hold fire and I will give you my final word until closer to the day of the race on Monday.
Please note that I agree to reassess Character Building if he wins tomorrow – his ’score’ would be 9.
33-1 HOT WELD 10-9-13
33-1 KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13
40-1 RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01
33-1 HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12
40-1 SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-06
40-1 GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00
50-1 DARKNESS 10-10-01
33-1 STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08
150-1 ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00
16-1 BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05
40-1 MON MOME (FR) 9-10-06
21-1 COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12
50-1 FLEET STREET 10-10-02
25-1 CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-01
40-1 GOLDEN FLIGHT(FR) 10-10-03
50-1 L’AMI (FR) 10-10-03
50-1 BATTLECRY 8-10-02
100-1 OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12
50-1 OEDIPE (FR) 7-10-00
66-1 REVEILLEZ 10-10-04
50-1 BALLYFITZ 9-10-10
66-1 TRABOLGAN (IRE) 11-10-01
40-1 CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-02
40-1 PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-04
33-1 SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01
100-1 FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-03
22-1 BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-10-11
#108
February 13th, 2009 16:05
My god!!! I’ve got some catching up to do,
Great work everyone! just skimming thro looks like some serious sorting
out been going on. Everyones electrical fields have realigned
was working yesterday, just back here after a 12hr power cut!!!
happened at exactly midnight on friday 13th! I don’t even believe in that one! but I have had some weird luck and stuff recently.
Anyway my router was fried!.. the gods not on wackys side me thinks! punished me for visiting him in his little cell
well done admin you were like Speedy Gonzales! arriva! arriva!
#109
February 13th, 2009 16:13
Trabolgan isnt running in the national according to owners racing manager!
#110
February 13th, 2009 16:31
Ooo, thanks Dan – I’ve actually got that in my notes for Monday’s post – sorry everyone. Thanks for spotting that – typing this all up in a hurry today as you’ve probably noticed by my typos. 66’s on Reveillez is my big-price recommendation for the moment but would recommend holding off until I give a complete picture on Monday.
Was thinking about doing a written commentary on the race as if it were live with the 40 I think will make the cut and revealing my top four tips through that before providing a full explanation afterwards. What does everyone think? Worth my effort?
#111
February 13th, 2009 16:40
Performance Factor, good stuff.
Top 3 in a Grade 1 place.
Well I can’t find one for Hallo Dandy,( 81-Aldaniti 2nd in Scots Nat, 83 -Corbiere,won Welsh Nat, did) but I’m using Times Archive -very good and free- the papers never always recorded what sort of race it was. Just for the record HD was 4th the previous year and won at least 3 chases at 3 miles and one of those was at 28f.
West Tip won Ritz Club at Cheltenham Fest, Mildmay/Cazalet chase at Sandown and was second in Chepstow’s rehearsal chase so he’s safe, I think. Still 85-08, the last 23 winners, is some run,eh?
So not sure about ‘82-Grittar and Hallo Dandy, Red M and Monty definitely didn’t get top3 grade 1 place at a distance of over 3miles but, get this, all four of these horses had experience of GN fences! Cheers Dan Edwards.
#112
February 13th, 2009 16:42
Rascal – welcome to the Reveillez fan club .. u me and gammers are the only members at the mo .. im going to add him to my list …. !
1. Southern Vic – Cl winner
2. State of Play – C1 Winner
3. Himalayan Trail – C1 Winner
4. Butlers Cabin – C1 Wwinner
5. Hear the Echo – C1 winner
6. Garde Champetre – C2 Winner
Fun big price bet
Reveillez – C1 winner
#113
February 13th, 2009 16:46
haha – pleased to a member.
#114
February 13th, 2009 16:48
I’m also on Reveillez at big prices Rascal and Birchy,one thats maybe slipped under the radar.I look forward to hearing your 4 Rascal!
#115
February 13th, 2009 16:51
At the moment my 5 against the field are, in some order of preference;
1 – Butlers Cabin
2 – Parsons Legacy
3 – Garde Champetre
4 – Character Building
5 – State of Play
Whilst Himalayan Trail meets the stats, his last run put me off.. a lot!
I am keeping an eye on Rambling Minster (needs to win or at least challenge for the win this weekend for me) Southern Vic and perhaps even Brooklyn Brownie.
#116
February 13th, 2009 17:06
Anybody, calculated how many horses have a top 3 Grade 1 place?
A 23/23 trend, placed in a grade 1 further than 3 miles 21/23.
I know his OR has never got up in to the 140’s, he will be on an OR of 140 in the National,and he’s a few quid short of a 17k win but how does Brooklyn Brownie- RPR 143 TS 140 rate?
By the way ‘79- Rubstic was second in Scots Nat, ‘78- Lucius was placed in the old Greenall Whitley National trial at Haydock(sure this must have been grade 1, Admin any ideas?)
#117
February 13th, 2009 17:07
Is Himilayan Train due to run again soon? Only 8 chase starts so far and needs minimum 10 I beleive?
#118
February 13th, 2009 17:09
….sorry typo ‘Trail’ not Train!!!
#119
February 13th, 2009 17:16
great work rascal,watching with great interest,and all my 6 backed are still in.however i think you will find that trabolgan is no longer a runner although i can’t remember where i read this but i have somewhere.please check before backing.
#120
February 13th, 2009 17:23
sorry already been stated.SILVER BIRCH great list 4 the same,just take s.vic and hte out and put cornish sett and rambling minster in and you are there my freind.
#121
February 13th, 2009 17:24
Nicky Henderson on Golden Flight, Fleet Street, Trabolgan and Oedipe (Racing Post GN pullout) – “The likely ones to run are Fleet Street and Golden Flight. I’ll need to get a run into Golden Flight fairly soon but he’s very good.”
That’s all I have.
#122
February 13th, 2009 19:22
Rascal – great analysis
One observation – you award 2 points for each win over 4m for staying power..
..this sounds reasonable except when you look at the last 10 winners – only Silver Birch and Comply Or Die had previously raced at, let alone won, a chase over 4m+ (except for Hedgehunter who fell in the National in 2004 and Amberleigh House who came third in 2003)
Is this fair?
#123
February 13th, 2009 19:36
As I stated in an earlier post, if Character Building wins at Haydock tomorrow, and in doing so posts a RPR in excess of 144, he will have a superb profile for the race!
With this in mind, my recommnendation is to back the horse in a double with ladbrokes, at 6/1 for tomorrows race, and 25/1 for the National. The double pays 182/1. So in effect, as he realistically has to win tomorrow to be considered, we are getting 182/1 about the horse for the National. If he does win tomorrow he likely to be one of the favourites, so a small wager on the double tomorrow could look a steal come National day. If he doesn’t win tomorrow he can probably be discounted anyway, so it looks well worth the risk!
#124
February 13th, 2009 20:42
Rascal amazing I’ve got my top six in your top 9! (dont agree on Hot weld by the way.
Will post my list but need another 24 hours to place them in order so they will be up tommorrow night (sorry everyone but i want to do a good job).
Will now be using Dans work – “Right, the last ten winners have ALL finished in the TOP THREE in AT LEAST ONE C1/G1 CHASE prior to winning their Grand National” (thanks Dan. A 15/15 stat just cannot be ignored)to double check all runners and to work out the order of merit.
Almost there and feeling very confident again with most of the main contenders already covered.
#125
February 13th, 2009 20:45
Hello everyone! Excellent work, been checking in on a regular basis and reading but this is my first post! Mainly to help Performance Factor – You won’t get those odds for the double! Bookies have a rule to do with related doubles and they will offer you a special price for this double. Hope that saves you any trouble should Character Building win tomorrow!
#126
February 13th, 2009 20:53
Excellent idea Performance Factor. I had never thought of that! Well worth it when you look at it.
#127
February 13th, 2009 20:57
Just stuck my GN bet on before the prices go down. All to WIN.
Spread some small bets on these and will pick one horse to add more to at a later date.
1. Butlers Cabin
2. Character Building
3. Garde Champetre
4. Rambling Minister
5. Himalayan Trail
6. Kilbeggan Blade
All have great stamina and low weight so surley one will come through and do the business.
#128
February 13th, 2009 20:57
Bloody good advice Performance Factor for anyone wanting to cover Character Building – should he win he will be in the first four in the betting (but I’am very unsure he will). Now do I risk about £15 just to cover myself – will sleep on that one?????
“With this in mind, my recommnendation is to back the horse in a double with ladbrokes, at 6/1 for tomorrows race, and 25/1 for the National. The double pays 182/1″.
#129
February 13th, 2009 21:00
Stephen, glad you approve. If we had done the same before Comply Or Die won the Eider last year, we would have been sitting on a real good bet come National day! I have had £20 on this evening, so a potential 3.5K return for that stake looks pretty good to me! If he fails tomorrow, he is unlikely to win the National anyway, so it seems a logical double to me.
Systems, would be interesting to know your top six, even if not in order.
#130
February 13th, 2009 21:03
Systems. I also have my doubts as to whether he will win tomorrow, but he has a really good chance and I think the double just cannot be ignored, even to very small stakes!
It will be a really interesting race to watch and should give major pointers to the National. I just wonder whether Coe might be the fly in the ointment here for National hopefuls!
#131
February 13th, 2009 21:07
Looks like I warned you too late! Anyone else thinking of doing the Character Building double please be aware that you will not have the bet settled at full multiple odds should he win both races!!
#132
February 13th, 2009 21:19
SYSTEMS MAN i think your 6 are
rambling minster
state of play
killbegan blade
himalayan trail
garde champetre
darkness
how close is that. agree with 4 but have cornish and butlers not killbegan and darkness.
#133
February 13th, 2009 22:03
It’s on Performance Factor
I could only afford a £5ew double at the moment but I managed to get 13/2 and 25/1
Come on AP, steer him home son!
#134
February 13th, 2009 22:27
As has previously been mentioned, with no stand-out horse this year perhaps the 2009 National will be the race where one or two of the established trends fall.
With that in mind I have gone back and looked at which horses fall short on just 1 ‘crucial’ trend or 2 ‘desireable’ trends. The results are quite interesting with some classy horses included.
Currently excludes Character Building, but that could all change come tomorrow afternoon.
Group A – meet all trends I’m using:
Rambling Minster, Parsons Legacy, Garde Champetre, Simon.
Group B – fail on 1 ‘desireable’ trend:
Reveillez, State of Play, Southern Vic, Darkness, Trabolgan, Always Waining, Monkerhostin, Ollie Magern, Kelami.
Group C fail on 1 ‘crucial’ or 2 ‘desireable’ trends:
Exotic Dancer, Madison du Berlais, War of Attrition, Knowhere, Cane Brake, My Will, Silver Birch, Butlers Cabin, Cornish Sett, Fleet Street, Kilbeggan Blade, Himalayan Trail.
Produces quite a different list to normal, notably in the area of the higher weighted horses who meet most other trends. Not saying I would necessarily back any from list C, or the higher ranked from list B were the weights to go up but indicates how many entries are there or thereabouts on the trends.
Of particular note would be Monkerhostin, Ollie Magern and State of Play were the unthinkable to happen and Exotic Dancer take his chance in the race!
#135
February 13th, 2009 22:27
Hi guys….i looked into doing this double bet on Character Building today as i had the same idea and was told that as it was the same horse it would count as a specialist bet and trading would quote a special price on the double…..which obviously would be reduced odds, so i did not take it any further…..is this right or have i been mis-led?
#136
February 13th, 2009 22:33
Puzzled, I tried it with 4 of the major bookies and 2 wouldn’t let me but the other 2 did. I’m not sure if I’m allowed to mention their names on here or not but just try it with different bookmakers and you will find some that will let you
#137
February 13th, 2009 22:35
Great work from everyone,really enjoying the debate, just thought i would add a note of caution to anyone doubling up on tomorrows gold cup Grand National double as the stats are not good as no winner has done the double in the same year,suny bay went closest, even placed horses dont do well with niki dee the only one to place in the same year and the only horse to win again in the same season was young kenny in 1999, hope this helps and thanks to all for all the effort put in.
#138
February 13th, 2009 22:35
Spot on puzzled. See my earlier posts.
#139
February 13th, 2009 22:38
Hi Stephen, i just spoke to 2 major bookies who i have accounts with and both of them said that the bet would not be accepted at current odds and special odds would have to be quoted.
So i hope that those of you who have placed bets already will have them honoured at those prices
#140
February 13th, 2009 22:41
Well I have the bet on and it has been accepted by the one I tried. Again, don’t know if I’m allowed to mention which but all I will say is that he is a character in Friends
#141
February 13th, 2009 22:43
do you mean Joey…he he he
#142
February 13th, 2009 22:46
IS VIC THERE?
#143
February 13th, 2009 22:47
Half Day Harry – Didnt they say that about the Eider last year when Comply or Die won?
#144
February 13th, 2009 22:48
Excellent point Dan.
Although I am clearly biased in this case!
#145
February 13th, 2009 23:03
well i’m on with on-line a/c ladbrookes there said no probs f— em
#146
February 13th, 2009 23:05
well guys the above mentioned bet is classed as a “related bet” and any bets taken in error will be settled (i am talking as if he has won tomorrow and the National already) as 2 singles.
I just got this from one of the big 4’s rule book
We do not accept multiple wagers where the respective outcomes are related, related meaning that should one event happen the outcome of another event in the wager becomes more likely to happen (i.e., Generous to win the Derby, Generous to win the Irish Derby and Generous to win the Prix De L’Arc de Triomphe). Should a related wager be accepted in error then the whole stake will be equally divided as singles on selections with the price given for the first race/event to take place being accepted and subsequent selections being settled at prices available immediately after the previous race/event has been completed.
However it is still a good bet i suppose if you can get a reasonable special price quoted from the bookies trading dept.
#147
February 13th, 2009 23:07
Well they have taken my bet. It should say if they don’t want it to happen. So I’m having my double
#148
February 13th, 2009 23:07
Loving the blog. Looking to put the bet on in the morning on CB. Did Badcrooks accept any of your money @ tha price?
#149
February 13th, 2009 23:09
Also, I don’t see how it can be determined by them that if he wins tomorrow it is more likely he wins the National. We just think it is because of trends.
#150
February 13th, 2009 23:11
me too stephen,printed receipt of acceptence off to comfirm.will get kavanagh qc on the bloody job.
#151
February 13th, 2009 23:12
Dan-This is true Dan,we must remember stats tell us what has happened before not what will happen in the future, however if we are using stats to help identify the possible winner,as far as i can see Comply or Die is the only winner of the Eider Chase in last ten years to run in Grand National in same season 1 run 1 win,5 previous winners of Blue Square Gold Cup to run in same year National 0 wins, i was only trying to help.
#152
February 13th, 2009 23:26
I agree Harry that it is a poor record and doesn’t look that appealing on paper.
Hopefully this can be the year that changes it
#153
February 13th, 2009 23:34
“Systems, would be interesting to know your top six, even if not in order”
OK in No order except that Butlers Cabin will not now be in the first three – happy now Wacky? (I will also take note of Dan’s work and place all runners who have placed in a Class 1 Chase before all others).
In NO Order (will post this tomorrow)- eight against the field.
Garde Champetre
Southern Vic
Himalayan Trail
Darkness (the “Dark” horse in the GN)
Rambling Minster
Kilbeggan Blade
Rambling Minster
Butlers Cabin
Now with too much weight and unlikely to win
Black Apalachi
Hear The Echo
On watch list
Parsons Legacy
Character Building (if he wins tomorow he’s in the list)
Will have two doubles tomorrow on both CB and RM in case one wins the Blue Square Gold Cup along with the GN!
#154
February 13th, 2009 23:36
It should say:
In NO Order (will post this tomorrow)- seven against the field.
Garde Champetre
Southern Vic
Himalayan Trail
Darkness (the “Dark” horse in the GN)
Rambling Minster
Kilbeggan Blade
Butlers Cabin
#155
February 13th, 2009 23:39
The biggest worry is that even the great RED RUM used this race 5 times as a warm up for Aintree and the one time it won, it was beaten in the national.As well as Red RUM,Party Politics and Earth Summit have run in the haydock race and gone on to victory at Aintree.Im praying RAMBO doesn’t win 2mrw.Just looked at the last eleven winners and none had form figures 000 like Butlers Cabin!!! Loading my Betfair account to Lay Lay LAy!!!Will soon have my casino Riiiiiicccccckkkkkyyyyy
#156
February 13th, 2009 23:48
Come on Systemsman you know it makes sense cross those French breds off your shortlist!!I know im a pain in the Butt and i keep on like a long playing record,but i want us all to have a shortlist of 3 horses-RAMBLING MINSTER,SOUTHERN VIC & KILBEGGAN BLADE.I know what you are thinking but these are the only ones that are close enough to fit the trends.FACT
#157
February 13th, 2009 23:57
Will ahve to think again about those two doubles as they are a “related” bet. Will need a good price to part with my money.
#158
February 14th, 2009 00:00
Wacky – getting nearer to you. We agree on the three and I am getting colder on BC but not ready to ditch him yet if he gets on 10.10 or under (if he had been given a few pounds less I would still have him in my top 4 – my money is already on anyway).
#159
February 14th, 2009 00:13
Just tried to find horses with a OR of 136-146 that has won a grade 1 that could fit the stats and found 2 which were Darkness and Cornish Sett(finished 12th last year)so the grade 1 stat may not be upheld this year.
#160
February 14th, 2009 08:58
Hello all you GN bloggers. I’ve been following this years thread with great interest – it’s a pleasure to be able to read comments from so many informed writers.
My top 3 are as follows:-
Himalayan Trail
Kilbeggan Blade
Southern Vic
Dangers:-
Rambling Minster & Character Building
Garde Champetre (French)
Butlers Cabin (French & over-weighted by Phil Smith)
Comments on the above:-
Himalayn Trail doesn’t hold the perfect profile – only had 8 chases but having won the 4m 1f Midlands National (surged clear after 4 out, stayed on strongly, easily – won 22L) should be considered a leading contender. I think HT is a Spring horse and could well bolt up off another low weight.
Kilbeggan Blade & Character Building all have form against Rambling Minster. Versus RM, CB is 7lb better in for a 3L loss but the Blade is 6lbs better in for a 4.5L win. Out of these 3 at present you’d pick Kilbeggan Blade (profile of 1st, 1st 1st too good??), regardless of how CB runs on Saturday.
Southern Vic – profile doesn’t stand out – needs a good run to inspire confidence.
Sorry systemsman but Darkness has to be discounted as only 2 full runs (& 2 pu) since 2005 is not good enough.
I would be interested to see comments on Top Speed figures for the leading contenders.
#161
February 14th, 2009 09:26
Just thought you should all know tried placing a double on CB on willhill they accepted the bet and took the money but i got an error message back saying i had to phone them and quote slip70.
Phoned the guy and they said that the bet wwas relatd and would therefore be voided, so they give me my money back.
Have emailed them looking for odds on him to do the double
#162
February 14th, 2009 10:20
Hmm well I haven’t had anything back yet from the place I put the bet on.
#163
February 14th, 2009 10:35
Wow. How many posts have there been since I last contributed?
Having re-evaluated, I’ve not totally dismissed Echo’s chances but am not considering for any more money as it’s already on and I have to hope he has a chance! Apparently, Mouse Morris is threatening to go for back to back Irish Nationals instead. Still happy enough with BC and I think he can carry the extra weight. However, I’m more confident with my 3rd choice, Himalayan Trail and have now backed Rambling Minster. I’m disregarding Southern Vic and, for the moment, Character Building. I have money on Darkness on Betfair and expect to lay it off for a small free bet plus a bit of profit. Other than that, we’ll wait and see.
#164
February 14th, 2009 10:37
nothing back from laddies either stephen and still reads ok on statement and outstanding bets.
#165
February 14th, 2009 10:43
Morning all.
New to the forum but have been following for some time. Have a number of antepost bets on already and these most closely resemble those put forward by Systemsman. The main reason for this post however is to alert you to the offer that BlueSquare have today in terms of any horse winning today’s long distance chase and the National in April. As it is a special bet there is no issue about “related bets”. I’m on CB and have had a small interest on MM and CS.
#166
February 14th, 2009 10:54
Hi guys, been fascinating reading your work! Been very helpful with narrowing down my list and I’m pleased to see that my top horses feature- got some questions for you all though:
Will Kilbeggan’s Blade be running? Just I’ve seen that his rank is something like 62 which could mean he’ll drop out?
Also, will Hot Weld be running? Since he’s not run since 2007! Or am I just reading that wrong?
Based on what’s been said and my own research, my top 6 would be, in no particular order:
1) Black Apalachi (especially since he won Bechers- a c1 race.
2)Rambling Minster
3) Kilbeggan’s blade (if he runs)
4)Parson’s Legacy (again will he run?)
5)Butler’s Cabin?
6) Maybe Comply or Die for a place, but something tells me he isn’t going to win again is he?
#167
February 14th, 2009 11:12
Just out of interest when did you place the double. I’ve tried to place it on ladbrokes and paddy they both won’t let me, i then tried willhill and it was allowed but got the error message and then they refunded it.
Backed him tho ew for today in Haydock and if he wins i’l just lump the whole winnings on the best price i can get.
#168
February 14th, 2009 11:16
I am also on with Ladbrokes at 182/1 the double as I advised, and like Minty, have had nothing back from them, so looks OK. I understand that this is a related bet, but think it should still be honoured. At the end of the day, the prices taken are quoted by them, independently for each race. We are just taken each individual price and placing them in a double. Isn’t it the same as placing a double on Manchester Utd to win both the premiership and FA CUP?
Also, if the bet was not honoured, and stakes split as some suggest, would they, if Character Building ran a stinker (and drifts in the Grand National market), then offer the second half of the “single” at the revised GN odds? I think not! Therefore, the fact that one bet can have an impact on the other, should be irrelevant, as the bet is placed before either race takes place.
I must admit, on reviewing the race, COE still looks the fly in the ointment for all the National hopefuls! Still 182/1 looks good vlue to me!
#169
February 14th, 2009 11:16
Johnny
I placed the double last night.
#170
February 14th, 2009 11:24
cheers lads got it on with coral
haydock 7/1
national 20/1.
#171
February 14th, 2009 11:24
me too 8-30 last night.
#172
February 14th, 2009 11:27
and because i just signed up ive been given £20 free bet yes its all good
#173
February 14th, 2009 11:28
Re – doubles: my advice would be to get second absolutely clear clarification that bet is a double and that it will stand.
There’s nothing worse to spoil the fun of a market than wondering if bet will be voided – if it is you can moan, but won’t have a leg to stand on and when there will you be? I’d get each of your doubles verified by traders to be safe.
Re today can’t believe 2 of the big favs on this site Rambling and Character are running and I can’t wait
:)
#174
February 14th, 2009 11:38
Phoned Coral the Bet is a valid double YEAH
#175
February 14th, 2009 11:49
Wacky
“Just tried to find horses with a OR of 136-146 that has won a grade 1 that could fit the stats and found 2 which were Darkness and Cornish Sett(finished 12th last year)so the grade 1 stat may not be upheld this year”.
I think you got this wrong Wacky. We are looking for trend runners who have been placed (1/2/3) in a Class 1/G1 Chase.
Dan can you confirm and possibly update with your final version on these excellent stats (one of the best posts this year in my opinion)?
“In fact, for those who like 9/10 or 19/20 stats, only Montys Pass had not placed in a C1 race over a distance FURTHER than 3 miles”.
AND
“Right, the last ten winners have ALL finished in the TOP THREE in AT LEAST ONE C1/G1 CHASE prior to winning their Grand National”
Which runners with OR 136 to 146 fit the above two trends?
#176
February 14th, 2009 11:58
Another option today is a £10 bet of Character Building to win at 6/1 (or 13/2) and then lump on fast with the best revised price on the GN – you might jsut get 20/1 ig he wins (more like 16/1 best).
This would make £70 return (if CB wins today) at 20/1 = £1470 if CB wins GN. better than a void bet!
Personely I would put the £70 winnings (if BC wins that is)on Shameri in the 16.50 in Wincanton today at about 8/11 and if it wins you would have about £120 to put on BC for the GN (return then would be about £2520 at 20/1).
#177
February 14th, 2009 12:06
ThaiMark – a warning about Kilbeggan Blade – this horse has never shown any form in the Spring before – in fact its performances have been dismal – it is best in late Autumn / early Winter
Also Rambling Minster is best on Good ground and a Spring horse according to his trainer so his last time out performance, which equalled his highest RPR, is arguably even better for being on Good to Soft
Rambling Minster’s run behind Cloudy Lane and Comply Or Die in December 2007 at Haydock – when he was giving weight to both on Soft ground! – looks very good in light of how well the other two have run subsequently and their respective National handicap marks
Virtually guaranteed to get the trip, he must have a great chance in my opinion – the only problem is that he might lack a touch of class, but that didn’t stop Amberleigh House and both have Buckskin in their pedigree
Value bet
#178
February 14th, 2009 12:15
…added to which Rambling Mintser has never fallen in his career
Looks better and better each time I look at it
Hoping for a decent run today on ground it won’t fancy
#179
February 14th, 2009 12:22
Sorry Systemsman i had seen that 10/11 had won a grade 1 before winning at Aintree and the other was 2nd.This stat is worrying me as there are major holes in the majority of the field if we have to apply this stat.Maybe we will have to raise the bar on OR so we can find a horse with enough class to win the race?Preists Leap maybe?I’ve lumped on rambo so will have to put my prices up in the Chippie and cafe!!!
#180
February 14th, 2009 13:14
Been a bit worried about the bet i placed checked the coral website and they said
“In accumulative wagers where bet contingencies are related or where the same selection is taken to win more than one event, a combined price that reflects the relativity will be applied for settlement, regardless of any individual prices marked on the betting slip. In instances where a combined price cannot be applied the bet will be settled as singles dividing the total stake available proportionately amongst the selections.”
#181
February 14th, 2009 13:21
will kilbeggan blade definetely get in off a mark of 9-13 what is the predicted cut off mark
#182
February 14th, 2009 13:27
Sorry what i seem to be talking loads of tripe.
Rang coral again, they confirmed that the bet should have had a combined odds under normal circumstances but because they have taking the bet and the odds are quoted they will stand over it.
So for my 5ew if he wins in both races £922.50
#183
February 14th, 2009 15:02
Rambling Monster – price dropped massively
Brilliant jumping
#184
February 14th, 2009 15:05
Yeees! Just had a fiver on Rambling Minister, £75 Get in…
Not a huge win but a win all the same.
#185
February 14th, 2009 15:05
GO RAMBLING – THIS YEAR’S COMPLY OR DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
#186
February 14th, 2009 15:06
Systemsman Says:
February 14th, 2009 at 11:49 am
Wacky
“Just tried to find horses with a OR of 136-146 that has won a grade 1 that could fit the stats and found 2 which were Darkness and Cornish Sett(finished 12th last year)so the grade 1 stat may not be upheld this year”.
I think you got this wrong Wacky. We are looking for trend runners who have been placed (1/2/3) in a Class 1/G1 Chase.
Dan can you confirm and possibly update with your final version on these excellent stats (one of the best posts this year in my opinion)?
“In fact, for those who like 9/10 or 19/20 stats, only Montys Pass had not placed in a C1 race over a distance FURTHER than 3 miles”.
AND
“Right, the last ten winners have ALL finished in the TOP THREE in AT LEAST ONE C1/G1 CHASE prior to winning their Grand National”
Which runners with OR 136 to 146 fit the above two trends?
Thanks for the kind words!! You’ll have to forgive me, my stats are all on another pc I dont have access to today. BUT I will give you the list on Monday
#187
February 14th, 2009 15:08
had a tenner on rambling wahooo !!!!! character building blundered badly about 3 out. right through it
#188
February 14th, 2009 15:09
Well done for all those brave enough to get on Rambling Minster at 40/1 for the GN before today. Looked like he would stay even further, jumped beautifully and no rightly challening for favourtism for the GN.
I managed to get on at 23/1 in running on Betfair. Laid off my Charcter Building bet as well for the smallest of profits.
Rambling Minster, Butlers Cabin and Parsons Legacy would be my 3 if the race were today now.
#189
February 14th, 2009 15:12
Wacky – you can flog the Chippie in April and get that Casino
#190
February 14th, 2009 15:15
Yes that was very impressive,not on it yet but i’m off to ladbrokes to take some of the 25s they’re still offering!
#191
February 14th, 2009 15:16
Now who doubts RAMBLING MINSTER is not good enough to win the national? I have been taking big odds about this horse for a while now.
#192
February 14th, 2009 15:18
phew I went for Rambling just in time! for the national I mean, was seconds late for this race and just went for the main event after seeing him start jumping a couple. Although CB was tempting, Rambling looked to have the keen attitude and great fluid movement. Happy he won as big tick in stats terms,
really impressive.
#193
February 14th, 2009 15:23
that was pretty impressive stuff from rambling minster . he absolutely cruised round there . i must admit i did not think he was good enough to win a nat before today but i have to say that was top stuff. hell go onto my shortlist after that although i suspect all the value will have gone now .very reminiscent of comply or die last year..!
#194
February 14th, 2009 15:23
Already on Rambling for GN, happy with that £75 win today.
Just got Voy Por aswell in my Neptune Collonges Double.
Won a football bet aswell. Im on a roll.
#195
February 14th, 2009 15:33
COME ON RAMBO!!!! Its won a Grade 1 race if im not mistaken.Only request now is can it be the 4th april 2mrw!!!Got 110’s,100’s 80’s 40’s and just phoned Ladbrokes and took 25’s!!Who is coming to the MALDIVES with Jane,Ricky,Bianca and ME?Sleep well RAMBO you have a date with destiny…….
#196
February 14th, 2009 15:36
HTE Unseated today at gowran park
#197
February 14th, 2009 15:51
Well, what a race today!
I am slightly disappointed with Character dropping off like that. He hit one of the fences and got bumped but no excuse really. I felt today was going to be his day to shine but that didn’t materialise. Shame. But if he is balloted out of the race I get my ante post money back so not too bad. He is still a talented horse and could still bounce back.
As for Rambling Minster, what a performance. Jumped very well and seemed to cruise to the front and win well. Must have a huge shout now for Aintree. Low weight and fit the trends. He now has the key top 3 finish in a C1 race and has 3 or more chase wins above 3 miles. I don’t really see where there is a fault in his trends.
I have taken some of the 25/1 so now my two Ante Post tickets that I have on are…
Character Building @ 25/1
Rambling Minster @ 25/1
I think I will leave it now until nearer the day.
#198
February 14th, 2009 15:53
60 on rambling at 20/1 ….. must be having a mad day
#199
February 14th, 2009 15:54
thats for the national not today hahaha or i’d be in the pub
#200
February 14th, 2009 16:05
Ah well alls not lost got a £20 free bet so that all going on Rambling eachway
Had him at 40/1 in middle of week cheers Showlad
#201
February 14th, 2009 16:06
Keith Reveley will now aim Rambling Minster at the Grand National following his fine staying performance in the Blue Square Gold Cup Chase at Haydock.
The trainer said “He’s not really a heavy ground horse
but James walked the course and found a good strip of ground up the straight”
“He will go for the National now, he’s got 10st 1 lb its a lovely racing weight and he is a brilliant jumper.”
Get yourselves down to Ladbrokes and snap up the 25-1
whilst you still can!
#202
February 14th, 2009 16:18
Well Johnny you’re welcome – I did say fill your boots
Wacky – thanks – that quote from the horses mouth really is the icing on the cake!!
Straight to the National now – Go RAMBO!!!!
#203
February 14th, 2009 16:27
Just shut the chippie and told jane to shut the cafe,im in need of a stiff drink!!But don’t worry ‘I’LL BE BACk’
#204
February 14th, 2009 16:29
Got 40-1 after 2 fences jumped, lucky. But I only play with pocket money, wish I’d had more on! spose still looks bargain at 25s.
Looks like possibly justified not to get swept up with HTE, regardless of weight, dare I say, another unseated someone said today?
RAMBO! VERY Comply or Die, (shame COD scoped badly and didn’t run here, as I refuse to give up on him! wanted to see his post weights blinkered return before deciding.) Rambling was so like him tho, the ease and going round the outside, staying on too, EASY!!! In terms of others, no eyecatchers as mesmerised by Rambo!
Miko the only other one to take or does he fail on an important stat? noone even mentioned him, has unseated twice recently? like HTE would like to see how and why. any other black marks? although its enough for me.
Nadover didn’t suprise me, one of those extremely unlikely to get in GN, shame for him I think as definate place potential, why didn’t Phil help this one in!!! connections must be annoyed with BCs unfair boost! he finished last year aged 7 in 7th! Cornish, Mon Mone didn’t get going, disappointing.
#205
February 14th, 2009 16:39
I’ve just watched Rambo’s last two runs before that monstrous demolition job today – at Sandown he was staying on nicely and needed more than the 3m 5f in the London National and at Cheltenham he stayed really well up the hill – today he showed he could do it on a flat left-handed course with stiff fences (like Aintree) on ground that he doesn’t favour
What was really impressive in all three runs was his near faultless jumping and the way he travels so sweetly in his races
Plus his jockey gets on really well with him and its the father/ son combo like Carberry in 1999 and Walsh in 2000
Took the 40s on Betfair earlier in the week and I have been to Laddies twice already since the race and I’m going to lump more on online
I think the only thing that can stop him is if Exotic Dancer runs and something classy carrying 11 stone or so puts in the performance of its life and breaks the trends (Cane Brake, King Johns Castle, Snowy Morning or Comply Or Die) or if State of Play reproduces his Hennessy form
The rest are running for place money at best
25/1 looks like bet of the season right now
Can anybody convince me otherwise?
#206
February 14th, 2009 16:41
Guys ladbrokes alone sitting at 25s on RAMBO – I would go for it!!
Even if he’s not your fancy, he could still be a great lay-off for you – I think he’ll go off at 7 or 8 to 1 favourite on the Day.
#207
February 14th, 2009 16:49
oh!!! you’re right showlad he’ll prob go off fav!
but I don’t like backin favourites,
well it isn’t yet! so think I should, always gutted when I win every year and win relatively so little.
#208
February 14th, 2009 17:01
I haven’t been here or had my computer working since this new page really, can’t believe its upto 200 posts already! it all looks good open reassessment, loving it! and now we may have found our winner! going to have few more quid (just a few) at 25s ontop of my 40s, he is THE low weighted one for me!
Like Pablo said, something around 11stone with class is the slight worry, but we can find that too! My Will has come in again I’ve noticed, any reason? is this because of his jumping or is he stated a definate runner?
#209
February 14th, 2009 17:16
Revised list after today and HTE unseating rider ..
Cant see any horse turning up at aintree with form figures- 556u and then winning the national ..
Rambling Minsters win puts him right in the mix – well done to u lads and lasses already on at fancy prices . i will invest right away..!
1. Southern Vic
2. State of Play
3. Rambling Minster
4. Himalayan Trail
5 .Garde Champetre
6 .Butlers Cabin
Fancy Fun bet – Reveillez
#210
February 14th, 2009 17:22
Betfred are only 14’s on RAMBO!!Lets hope that Butlers cabin is fav for the race on the day!!
#211
February 14th, 2009 17:23
I think a new important fact as I tried to express at the end of the last thread, FEB 11TH at 636 is a higher TS.
According to systemsmans stat he/we have been using
TS has to be 111 and preferably over 128 (7/11)
I looked into this and unless I am confused but don’t think I am,
Bindaree had the lowest winning TS by some way in the last 10 yrs of 129!
this is a classier race now! does the bar need raising? Rambling has good enough TS, Kilbeggan does not!
#212
February 14th, 2009 17:40
my ante posts o far on looking through this thread and the other one:
in no order :
1. butlers cabin
2. hear the echo … bad move i now think
3. rambling minister
4. state of play
the horse that just gives you that funny feeling when you see its name
5. parsons legacy
#213
February 14th, 2009 17:43
sounds like war of attrition may head to aintree
i reckon there are only 3 at the top end of the handicap that can win this
War of Attrition
State of Play
My Will
The boys down at the bottom end their biggest threat comes from these three above methinks
#214
February 14th, 2009 17:53
I am on 4 now, can I stick to 6 max?
in backing order
Black Aps- oh dear
Cornish- its not over!
Garde Champ- hope you’re reading connections,
great chance! he CAN win at cheltenham
then can win this too.
Rambling Minster- as Led Zep said “rambo on”
#215
February 14th, 2009 18:20
just started to calm down after that great performance by rambling minster. Bets so far-
rambling minster at 300s 130s and 114s
my will at 25s and 33s
mon mome at 55s
chelsea harbour at 75s
butlers cabin at 20s ( only because of systemsman )
irish raptor – non runner
Am starting to feel giddy and still 6/7 weeks to go.
#216
February 14th, 2009 18:25
Well done Pablo. You were spot on with Rambling Minster. But looking at other contenders I can’t yet rule out Himalayan Trail. And with regards to Kilbeggan Blade it does look like he runs his best races in the depth of winter – not a Spring runner but I can’t ignore the fact that he gave Rambling Minster a 4.5L whipping when 6lbs better off in the GN weights!
#217
February 14th, 2009 18:30
Well i’ve now got some sorting out to do as my current bets are:
Butlers Cabin – Small insurance bet put on in january
HTE – Medium bet put on in January (Need a replacement for this one now)
Garde Champetre – Big bet Pre weights
Rambling Minster – Big bet Pre race today
Now for my replacement for HTE. Will be looking at State of Play, Himalayan trail and Parsons legacy in more depth now (already used a free bet for Himalayan Trail)
Not sure i need to rush into putting any of these bets on now tho as im sure what value is left on them will last that bit longer so im happy to sit back and wait til the end of Feb after the 1st declaration stage and possibly til after cheltenham
Then it will be time to look for that big outsider bet.
#218
February 14th, 2009 18:43
Just been on the forum on betfair and Rambo is on everyones lips.If you want the 25’s you had better be quick as i don’t think it will last the night!!Its under 20’s on betfair so the other bookies will be feeling the pinch soon!!Im going to see what rating and speed figure its got after that stroll in the (haydock)park.Anyone want to back any of the front ten(except rambo)with me on betfair please?
#219
February 14th, 2009 18:54
Trying to figure out which horse can beat Rambo…
Quite a long list – but these are the ones that I reckon to be well handicapped on best form (other than Rambo the Monster that is)
War Of Attrition (former Gold Cup winner – the sort that you’d kick yourself if it won)
Snowy Morning (needs to show some form)
Monkerhostin (French bred – old dog – give up if this wins)
My Will (French bred but have a nagging doubt that this one might win – will make up my mind on the day)
State of Play (everything in its favour)
Reveillez (off the course for a long while and pulled up on comeback run – but worth small change at 200/1)
Endless Power (don’t believe this will stay but we shall see in Racing Post Chase next Saturday)
L’Ami (French – tried and failed before)
Simon (will he make it past Valentine’s second time around?)
Battlecry (watching brief on this one – great run behind Big Bucks at Aintree last year but erratic jumper)
Darkness (off injured for a while but given chance by handicapper)
Silverburn (Denman’s brother but doubtful stayer in my opinion – looked knackered in RSA last year at Cheltenham)
Southern Vic (trainer knows how to place his horses – worry is Strong Gale in breeding – might not stay)
Trabolgan (very well in but injured)
Garde Champetre (French, not sure what to make of cross country races – will make my mind up after Cheltenham)
Oedipe (French, 7 years old)
Bets so far:
Rambo @ 40/1 (Betfair) and 25/1 at Laddies
State of Play (average 83 at Betfair)
Simon (average 39 at Betfair)
Plus small fun bets on a few 100/1 to 300/1 shots
#220
February 14th, 2009 19:06
Well i think as far as my final list is concerned,
Rambling Minster
state of play(still needs a run)
simon(needs to be placed over 25f before race)
parsons legacy(needs at least 1 run before race)
I have been waiting for Todays race and it answered a lot of questions for me regarding Rambling Minster, Mon Mome, Character Building and Cornish Sett and other form lines through them.
And i think that i could be forgiven for saying that i think i have seen the winner of the 2009 Grand National in full glory today, the way he ran all the way on the outside and taking up the running a circuit from home and the fluent jumping just seemed to have a touch of class about it, a touch of class that told me to go out and get as much 25/1 as The magic sign could offer me
For most of this horses jumping career he has lumped weight around the mid 11st mark and even allowing for a hike in the national weights he will carry just under a stone less in the National than he has raced with in the last year.
After todays performance carrying 11.3 in that ground 10.01 for the National looks very generous indeed.
I will back the others in my list as savers just in case a mis-hap does occur but for me i am quite happy that i have seen the winner and don’t think that i will be looking elsewhere.
So my friends with 25/1 still on offer the magic sign should be calling us all.
#221
February 14th, 2009 19:16
kj Says:
February 14th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
I think a new important fact as I tried to express at the end of the last thread, FEB 11TH at 636 is a higher TS.
According to systemsmans stat he/we have been using
TS has to be 111 and preferably over 128 (7/11)
I looked into this and unless I am confused but don’t think I am,
Bindaree had the lowest winning TS by some way in the last 10 yrs of 129!
this is a classier race now! does the bar need raising? Rambling has good enough TS, Kilbeggan does not!
Hi KJ, Think i might have the answer for you on the TS thing.
I could be mistaken but it looks like you’ve been looking at the TS they won the national in and not the TS prior to the national they won.
#222
February 14th, 2009 19:23
Hi Admin,I owe you a big apology as i didn’t THANK YOU for moving the blog so i could see what the others were saying.So Thank you very much and if your ever in the westcountry i will get you a few beers!!I think my time in prison has been very good as backing RAMBO at all rates from 110’s -25’s has been a god send and its very satisfying that i found RAMBO without any help.Time to take the girlfriend for a ruby and i may let her have FRENCH FRIES im that happy!! cheers Ian(rambo)Beale
#223
February 14th, 2009 19:25
HAPPY VALENTINE’S GUYS & GIRLS.
#224
February 14th, 2009 20:02
thanks Brian, think may be true the TSs I posted were GN TSs, but I also looked at lifetime TS in a chase stats. Would be grateful if someone would look into this again…Brian?
Still think I have something here, just looking quickly at COD eider win last year TS 150.
I can’t see horses like Kilbeggan winning anymore because of low TS stat, maybe if he ploughs them into the ground in heavy mud!!! haa! just looked at sporting life site and uses same words “ploughing through the mud” for Rambos win today. Does anyone think the grond was THAT testing? if so makes Rambo look even harder!!! would have to be even muddier for horses like kilbeggan to beat horses with TSs of 140s and 150s, no!
#225
February 14th, 2009 20:21
when Kilbeggan beat Rambling at sandown on dec6, the ground looked extremely testing if I remember correctly and Kilbeggan just kept ploughing away until he was in front in the end, Rambling never got into it that day, possibly as truely testing heavy! Every horse has their limit on the various heavys I think. So can’t rule out Mon Mome and Cornish in better ground. TSs in the race at sandown were for Killer 124 and Rambo 120. Haven’t seen todays TS stats, but Rambo seemed to motor in what sporting life is calling mud plough conditions!!
#226
February 14th, 2009 20:47
My top 3 for the National:-
1. Rambling Minster (backed at 40/1)
2. Himalayan Trail (backed at 33/1)
3. State of Play (backed at 33/1)
I don’t stick rigidly to the stats, as I allow a bit of lee-way for horses that I believe have the form/class to win. But these 3 definitely come out well all round.
Re RAMBO – is it a bit worrying that he won today? When did the last GN winner go into the race off the back of 2 wins? I had been hoping he would just get placed really.
#227
February 14th, 2009 20:53
come on stats man we are all on a high with Rambo….don’t go putting doubts in our minds.
Hold your nerve and it will come to those who wait
#228
February 14th, 2009 21:15
Lord Gyllene won 3 in season of National win and won by 25 lengths
Rambo puts in best 2 performances of career to 1) win to get in the race off 10′1 and 2) win again after weights out – how can that be a bad thing?
#229
February 14th, 2009 21:34
Hate to brake up the party but I think many are getting carried away with Rambo – lets have a little cool assessment.
Yes he is in my eight against the field:
Garde Champetre
Southern Vic
Himalayan Trail
Darkness (the “Dark” horse in the GN)
Rambling Minster
Kilbeggan Blade
Rambling Minster
Butlers Cabin
And Character Building is now dropped from my watch list (no hope now I think).
But and its a big but
There will be other Class 1 winners between now and GN day so dont lets get too carried away.
How may days to GN day?(is the win not just outside the 50 days for a last prep run?[should he not run again that is]
Two wins in a row in GN season!(strange profile – peeking too early?)
Am I the only one who thought he looked knackered towards the end (OK he had a very good excuse carried 11.03 in Heavy) – extra mile in GN though!
Having said all that OR 143 and 10.01 in National!! Must be on any short list.
#230
February 14th, 2009 21:51
For me Systemsman he is the first horse thats fits in snugly with all requirements, for the past 2 weeks i have scoured the entries but nothing seemed to fit nicely untill today…..yes you are quite right there will be some c1 winners between now and national day but will they be as impressive?
There are 49 days between today and April the 4th Saturday the 4th being the 49th day so all is well.
I disagree with what you say about him looking knackered, i have re watched the race and concidering the ground i thought he looked very fresh…. if he looks as tired 2nd time round as he jumps valentines i will be a very happy man.
#231
February 14th, 2009 21:58
Nice to see you have Rambling Minster twice in your list systems
He deserves it, ha ha!
It’s 49 days until the National so he sneaks in that stat
And as mentioned Lord Gyllene did have more than one win in his National winning season, so it is possible.
Just looking at Kilbeggan Blade again, it’s raced 3 times in long distance C1 chases and PU every time. Plus it seems to go off the boil in Spring. Doesn’t look too healthy to me.
#232
February 14th, 2009 22:34
Stephen dont get me wrong this is my post on 31st Jan:
“January 31st, 2009 at 7:13 pm
alanham thank you – greta work. How did I miss Rambling Minster? who by the way has a perfect score of
9ABC*
He is OR 135 up to OR143 now (will he be able to handle any extra weight with a RPR of 147 best – its OK but I would prefer 149 +++ or at least one RPR 150 or more). However he must be placed in our short list. Did I miss any others?
Checked his price which is between 25/1 and 40/1 so that looks good for this time of year as well. I will be having some of that 40/1!”
He also fits the Pre Chritmas winners profile but was overlooked by me (must never make that mistake again but I did have 120+ runners to cover in detail!!), but should have been in the list meeting all the requirements(Post Dec 18th 2008: Can we find the 2009 winner – YES we can!).
So he is in the very short list but there will be others.
Just for interest these were the Pre Chritmas winning trends selections – with Rambo added now(all the last ten GN winners had met the trends (see Dec18th post)prior to Xmas!! – amazing is it not?
In no order (with some new notes):
1. Butlers Cabin – good chance
2. Himalayan Trail – good chance
3. Black Apalachi – too much weight now
4. Darkness – needs run and win.
5. Garde Champetre – good cahnce
6. Parsons Legacy – chance – still watching
7. King Harold – not looking so good
8. Kilbeggan Blade – good chance
9. Chelsea Harbour – unlikely now
10. Southern Vic – good chance
11. L Ami – unlikely
12. Rambling Minster- good chance!!
Now thats what i call a good list for December 2008 and the winner may well be in there.
#233
February 14th, 2009 22:41
Keith Reveley had said before Rambo won today that he wanted to get 2 runs into the horse before Aintree.But ‘Ran between 20 and 49 days ago’ still fits the stats.Its time to be calm now and alot of water has to run under the bridge before the big day.If the only fault we can find is that Rambo has won two on the trot and it fits every other stat then feel the force and keep steaming in!!!Im hoping to lay off at around 10’s on the day and still show a very nice profit.French Fries anyone?
#234
February 14th, 2009 22:55
Yes it was a good win today but time for everyboby to calm down,i wasn’t on it today but i’ve had a wee bit on it now,well done if you were on today but its not won the nat has it?
#235
February 14th, 2009 23:01
This blog yesterday found a 23/23 trend, top 3 place in grade 1 (possibly even longer, does anybody know anything about Hallo Dandy!! and that Greenall Whitley chase that Lucius was placed in, see earlier post, is now this Haydock Park Gold Cup!) Adding this to the winner profile, top 5 Hennessey, top 3 Irish/Scots/ Welsh Nat, top 2 in a race over GN fences and current trends though not applying prep runs at the moment as we dont know how many prep runs they will have had come big day,
** in the last 30 yrs three horse have won with 3 prep runs or less,two winners in the last 19 yrs have had more than six**
These horses OR 150 or less, are currently spot on and I’m still including Frenchies (Rambling’s dam sire is Buckskin and he is French!) Vive la difference. .
OR is National rating.
1.Himlayan Trail 138 – 3×24f+ chase wins including 1 at 28f+ / two non finishes this season small negative.
2.Brooklyn Brownie 140 – 2nd over GN fences, has won over 24f chase/ a low highest ever OR, not raced further than 24f so stamina question but good bloodline -Lafontaine is dam sire(Papillon’s dad)
3.Hot Weld 141 – Scots Nat winner /not raced yet but neither had Miinnehoma at this time in ‘94.
4.Rambling Minster 143 – 3×24f+ chase wins including 1 at 28f / if he doesn’t run again will be attempting a three timer
5.Cornish Sett 144 – 2nd Welsh Nat / an unplaced horse hasn’t come back to win following season since ‘76.
6.L’Ami 145 – 2nd in Hennessey / unplaced and fell in previous Nationals though Little Polveir unplaced and fell and unseated in late eighties
7.Parsons Legacy 146 – 5th Hennessey, 3rd Scots Nat / seems fragile and pulled out last year
8.Silver Birch 148 – won Welsh Nat, becher chase / only one horse has won more than won National since the war
9.State Of Play 150 – won Hennessey / not very big and a weight rise could finish his chances
close…..
1.Garde Champetre 140, 3×24f+ chases including 1 at 28f+ /
needs top 3 place in Grade 1
2.Character Building 140, needs to win Grade 2, or higher, chase
3.*Southern Vic 143, hasn’t won since 06 but has been injured, similar profile to Specify ‘71
4.*Darkness 143, pulled up in Welsh/Scots Nat but did finish 3rd in Sun Alliance
5*Simon 145, fell and unseated in previous Nationals though Little Polveir did this in late eighties/ best chance in Natonal to date as last winning OR was 143 and has come down from 152
*ideally need a chase win over 28f, Red Rum ‘73 and Lucius ‘78 most recent winners not to finish, top 5 Hennessey etc or win at 28f.
#236
February 14th, 2009 23:13
In last post didn’t include
Kilbeggan Blade 141, 3×24f+ chase wins 1at 28f+ who needs a top 3 grade 1 place
Highland Wedding ‘69 last winner to come here on a run of victories, his National win was his fourth in a row.
#237
February 14th, 2009 23:42
Posted this again,
This blog yesterday found a 23/23 trend, top 3 place in grade 1 (possibly even longer, does anybody know anything about Hallo Dandy!! and that Greenall Whitley chase that Lucius was placed in, see earlier post, is now this Haydock Park Gold Cup!) Adding this to the winner profile, top 5 Hennessey, top 3 Irish/Scots/ Welsh Nat, top 2 in a race over GN fences and current trends though not applying prep runs at the moment as we dont know how many prep runs they will have had come big day,
** in the last 30 yrs three horse have won with 3 prep runs or less,two winners in the last 19 yrs have had more than six**
These horses OR 150 or less, are currently spot on and I’m still including Frenchies (Rambling’s dam sire is Buckskin and he is French!) Vive la difference. .
OR is National rating.
1.Himlayan Trail 138 – 3×24f+ chase wins including 1 at 28f+ / two non finishes this season small negative.
2.Brooklyn Brownie 140 – 2nd over GN fences, has won over 24f chase/ a low highest ever OR, not raced further than 24f so stamina question but good bloodline -Lafontaine is dam sire(Papillon’s dad)
3.Hot Weld 141 – Scots Nat winner /not raced yet but neither had Miinnehoma at this time in ‘94.
4.Rambling Minster 143 – 3×24f+ chase wins including 1 at 28f / if he doesn’t run again will be attempting a three timer
5.Cornish Sett 144 – 2nd Welsh Nat / an unplaced horse hasn’t come back to win following season since ‘76.
6.L’Ami 145 – 2nd in Hennessey / unplaced and fell in previous Nationals though Little Polveir unplaced and fell and unseated in late eighties
7.Parsons Legacy 146 – 5th Hennessey, 3rd Scots Nat / seems fragile and pulled out last year
8. Butlers Cabin 147 – won Irish Nat / out of form
9.Silver Birch 148 – won Welsh Nat, becher chase / only one horse has won more than won National since the war
10.State Of Play 150 – won Hennessey / not very big and a weight rise could finish his chances
close…..
1.Garde Champetre 140, 3×24f+ chases including 1 at 28f+ /
needs top 3 place in Grade 1
2.Character Building 140, needs to win Grade 2, or higher, chase
3. Kilbeggan Blade 141, 3×24f+ chase wins 1at 28f+ / needs a top 3 grade 1 place
4.*Southern Vic 143, hasn’t won since 06 but has been injured, similar profile to Specify ‘71
5.*Darkness 143, pulled up in Welsh/Scots Nat but did finish 3rd in Sun Alliance
6*Simon 145, fell and unseated in previous Nationals though Little Polveir did this in late eighties/ best chance in Natonal to date as last winning OR was 143 and has come down from 152
*ideally need a chase win over 28f, Red Rum ‘73 and Lucius ‘78 most recent winners not to finish, top 5 Hennessey etc or win at 28f.
#238
February 15th, 2009 00:44
surely darkness need to prove something before being on a shortlist 3rd and pu since reappearing after 2 years????
#239
February 15th, 2009 01:56
I’ve got Himalayan Trail as my 2nd choice, and he could be the one, assuming he gets in the race. Will have a low weight (around 10-3?), has winning form over 4m 2f, Won a Class 1 race £57k, OR 140, is right age (10-y-o), etc.
Also he has run over hurdles a couple of time this season which could be a plus.
I know he pulled up last time out, but if he were to run a decent race between now and the big one his price would surely crash.
Anyone got a stat that would put you off Himalayan?? Would be grateful for advice!
#240
February 15th, 2009 02:23
Alrite fellas,
I wrote on this blog last year, and was the one who had severe doubts over D’Argent, and tipped Comply or Die and Snowy Morning (which Wacky and a few others heavily mocked me for!)
Having looked at this race, there is one horse i really like and can’t see past as the winner and its NOT Rambling Minster (or Rambo)
My tip is HOT WELD. This horse has bags of stamina and has won constantly shone over the longer distances. Winner of 2006 NH chase, Scottish National and Betfred Gold Cup. At the moment, carrying only 9st 13 which will rise a little when Exotic Dancer pulls out. However, Hot Weld will be getting weight from his opponents.
#241
February 15th, 2009 05:16
Hi all
Great work so far. Shame I dint compile my shortlist before todays race as it appears Rambling Minster would have been on it and therefore wouldve got better value than Ive had to take today. Got £15 on at lads at 25s with a view to laying out at 10-11/1 come the day. I follow most of the trends you have all described and great spot on the “top 3 in a class 1 chase” by the way! Like you say, got to be reasonably careful with that as a few have only got the 1 top 3. So if anything really good hasn’t then won’t discount it 100%.
Slightly worried that this year could just be a little different -with much better horses being entered than previous. So going to allow some margin for faults if any horses stand out but don’t quite fit certain patterns.
And still worried with what happened last year with King Johns Castle. I went heavy on CoD after his superb ‘top weight’ performance in the Eider last year and it paid off. But if he had fallen say, a horse that failed on many of our trends would have won it in KJC. Just worries me slightly that things are changing.
Anyways, I hope to compile my shortlist before next weekend and I would assume it will contain the same types that have been mentioned here.
Keep up the good work
Ells
1
#242
February 15th, 2009 10:16
Hi Russell, Welcome back to the blog and im sorry if i upset you last year.The reason i had doubts about COD was that no horse had won the eider and then won at Aintree.Im only doing my best to give a view that can help and i put my hands up if i got it wrong.So now im very confident that you have got it wrong this year with Hot Weld.Why pick a horse that hasn’t run this season when most national winners have had 4 runs before the big day?Also do you think it will be good/firm on the day? I have a strong trend for today in the HCGC at Leop and that is the last ten winners have won over CD so Notre Pere looks a good bet @4/1 today and maybe good value for the gold cup @25/1.
#243
February 15th, 2009 11:12
Well its all be said on Rambling Minster – glad I put my money where my mouth was on Friday night.
Lets keep an eye on the Eider and the Grimthorpe before we go overboard tho!
#244
February 15th, 2009 13:14
I have been looking at the career form of Butlers Cabin and would like some opinions on this.
If you look at the form prior to the Irish National Win most of its runs were on left handed tracks;
Left Handed – 10 runs (2,4,3,3,1,1,4,3,10,1).
Right handed tracks – 4 runs (2,3,7,1).
It won the Irish National on a right handed track but since then, apart from its fall in the National last year (when going very well – on left handed track) it has only been raced on right handed tracks (other than hurdle race at Newbury on 28.11.08).
It has not had a prep chase on on a left handed track and was wondering whether its form has not been very good.
Just something to think about……
#245
February 15th, 2009 13:50
Great work guys and girls
Suppose most impressive thing for me was Rambo’s style and stamina yest: Good position early and then held at front few for most of race and then came Coe’s late challenge – Rambo stayed with it and then destroyed him with a further switch in gears (really don’t know where you got your view that Rambo was tiring Systems).
Little fav today (w/o getting in French debate) – What do we make of My Will’s chances? Saw him on return run and was v impressive? Would appreciate if anyone has in depth view on him and duly posted it up.
PS Silver Birch – where did you get info that looks likely War may run?
#246
February 15th, 2009 14:05
SHOWLAD totally agree with you dont know where systems gets the “knackered” at the end on ramblings race from.totally gob smacked me and that is only because i nearly always agree with or see his point of views.must admit i am on at 40s and that is mainly due to someone on here stating to get on before sats race because of what has now happened,but he was on my list but i would have waited i am sure,so a big thanks to ever.IT WASN’T BEALE thats for sure.to be honest i thought the opposite i remember saying to her in doors how well he looked at the end,he looked class to me even more so than c.o.d last year.
#247
February 15th, 2009 14:37
Howdi Showlad – here u go … by no means definite but dont be surprised if the war shows up…
from last nights racing post
WAR OF ATTRITION could be bound for the John Smith’s Grand National after trainer Mouse Morris said on Saturday that therace was ” definitely on the agenda ” for the 2006 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner.
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However plans for Hear The Echo, trained by Morris for War Of Attrition’s owner Michael O’Leary, are less certain after last year’s Irish Grand National winner unseated Davy Russell two out in the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park.
Morris said: “War Of Attrition goes for the Gold Cup next month and obviously a lot will depend on how he comes out of Cheltenham.
“But he’s been fairly treated for the National and there is every chance that he will go to Aintree.”
#248
February 15th, 2009 14:47
Just a couple of points folks …
I think its fair to say that most of us are all congregating around the same horses now and have loaded up at the local turf accountants respectively on the folowing :
rambling,vic,himalayan,state of play ,butlers,kilbeggan ,garde
however ive detected that although evbody happy with their lot , that we all keep peering up to the top end of the handicap at the big boys and wonder / fret which ones could possibly burst our happy bubble
for what its worth i think systems man and crisps list def contain the winner and we are all on the right track but who are the trend busters who could thrown the spanners in the works
i think the following three horses still worry me and could go mighty close just through their class coming to the fore
War of Attrition , Miko de Beauchene, My Will
It may be worth having a saver on these especially nearer the time if jonjo starts making noises about running exotic dancer.
Nevertheless happy where i am at the mo although need to load up a bit more on the minster now …
#249
February 15th, 2009 14:58
Just a few things about Rambling Minster. As I said earlier Highland Wedding was the last horse, I think, to win on the back of a run of victories and coincidentally was the last,before COD, to win the Eider!
Keith Reveley, Minster’s trainer has said that the horse might now go to straight to Aintree which is fine by me because Hedgehunter and COD won a chase in their last prep and they had seven and six weeks respectively to recover.
#250
February 15th, 2009 15:14
Your right Ryme no Reason i didn’t tell you to lump on Rambo,cause its the only horse i’ve backed and i wanted to snap up all the 40’s i could before the price crashed!!Need all the money i can get with a wife,two kids and a FAGGOT to look after!!!!!!!Got all day brekfast on specials today with French fries!!!IAN BEALE .-)
#251
February 15th, 2009 15:19
Just a quick 2 sec post..
Just to say guys this very sec the 25s on Rambo Monster lol, have gone from Lads…20s or lower now…
ROCK ON RAMBO!!!!
#252
February 15th, 2009 15:27
I’m on
Rambling Minister at 40s and 20s
Garde 33s
Kilbeggan 40s
Looking for another two. Love the horse hot weld i have always said he will the national one day but since his injury would like to see him run first before i put my money on him.
Others I like are Mon Mome and Fundamentalist has anyone any view on these two
#253
February 15th, 2009 15:50
Silver Birch – agree about War – I’ve had a small saver on him – if he lines up he’ll be a lot shorter I reckon
Showlad – just looked at My Will again – his run behind Madison in the Hennessy was encouraging but I think there are plenty of doubts about this one:
1) He was off the track for 18 months before the Hennessy and hasn’t run since
2) Before his spell off the track he’d been a regular runner running 8 or 9 times over fences each season and very consistently – perhaps a tad too high in the weights to win because he’s been so consistent?
3) I’d want to see him run again before backing him at 20/1 – way too short for me for a French Bred coming back from a long lay-off
Re: Simon – looked at this one again and traded out – he needs another run before I’m interested – doesn’t look value compared with Rambo
#254
February 15th, 2009 15:55
Dan – Re: Butler’s Cabin – I don’t know what’s going on there – trainer appears to do things his way – looked at last year’s National again and yes he was going well but so were a good few others (COD, Snowy Morning, KJC, Slim Pickings, Bewleys Berry etc etc) – effectively off the same OR in National this year of 147 (lower racing weight because better horses lining up in 2009) and I can see something being better handicapped or with more class beating him
#255
February 15th, 2009 16:47
Connections of Miko De Beauchene are eyeing the totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup after his pleasing display at Haydock on Saturday.
The 2007 Welsh National winner turned in a fine weight-carrying performance when third in the Blue Square Gold Cup, a race he won 12 months ago but off an 8lb lower mark. Robert and Sally Alner’s nine-year-old showed enough promise on Merseyside to now come under consideration for the Gold Cup on March 13.
“We’ve yet to speak to the owners, but I was speaking to Sally and she’s very keen to go for the Gold Cup and give it a crack,” regular pilot Andrew Thornton told At The Races.
“He’s at the right age and the Gold Cup is very much up in the air at the moment.
“He’s going to be a 100-1 chance, but if ground conditions come up really soft you need a horse that’s going to get up the hill.
Thornton was unseated by Miko De Beauchene on his previous two starts and reflected: “It was nice to have a little bit of luck with him.
“He was staying on at the finish and he should improve again.”
#256
February 15th, 2009 17:13
In the cold light of day can we look at Rambo’s good and bad points. A few have got carried away I think (yes he is on my short list too).
As I pointed out yesterday he will not be the only Class 1 Chase winner between now and GN day.
Now if he goes straight to the GN when was the last time a horse had this profile (just a bit odd dont you think)?
1st, 1st and 1st(Grand National if he wins)? Crisp how long ago was Highland Wedding?
Like Gammers said “Lets keep an eye on the Eider and the Grimthorpe before we go overboard tho!”
Now I am going to look at that video of Rambo’s win again and again and will report back later.
Anyone else have any doubts at all or is it all sown up already (I dont think so, I really dont)?
#257
February 15th, 2009 17:38
Next Saturday we have:
Racing Post Chase at Kempton
Eider Chase at Newcastle
Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse
Should be a few more pointers & hopefully be able to rule out a few more as well
#258
February 15th, 2009 17:43
The way Rambling has improved since last race
( racing off OR of 122 last year, i think ? )
I would say he will be the first National winner to go there with 2 prev wins in a row .
This horse looks a Monster machine * glad to be on at 110, 44 and 20’s .
#259
February 15th, 2009 17:59
Systemsman because Rambling minster is going into the national with form firures of 1st,1st i see it as no bad thing it goes to show that a horse is at the top of his game at present.
Sure no recent horse has gone into the national with such form but it really is not a stat that has any relevance, i think it might be a stat too far.
Sure there are plenty of races to come and the National picture will undoubtedly change, many times, but if Rambling minister now goes straight to the National he must be going with a real live chance based on yesterdays performance and i would sooner him go with my money riding on form figures of 6-5-1-1 than form figures of F-8-0-8
#260
February 15th, 2009 18:16
Systems, of course you’re right about Rambling Minster and he’s got no bigger fan than me- I think his first mention on these threads was from me after his New Years Day victory which was important because he had been on a losing run and every winner since I dont know when, apart from the USA’s Ben Nevis in 81, has won one of their previous ten chases. I think we’re all excited because everyone seems to have got a good juicy price for probably one of the big three or four stat chances come the day. By the way Highland Wedding was in 69! I’m still thinking though, rightly or wrongly and despite being very happy to have backed RM at 33/1, that this year’s winner will come from the first set of criteria of my winners profile, top 5 Hennessey,etc 15/18, 11/11; added to current trends plus that spot on C1/G1 top 3 stat.
Systems, anyone, what do you make of this Brooklyn Brownie, I really think with this could be Ireland’s great hope given that Southern Vic still needs a big performance or War Of Attrition, Preists Leap and Silver Birch get in with the weights they’ve been allocated which is highly improbable.
And what does evrybody think about the 17k chase win? I presume all recent winners have won a chase of this value but what about inflation, deflation, stagflation? (anybody know that Robert Peston email address!!!) Is it something we can compare with, say a winner in the early mid-nineties which I think is quite relevant to the business of finding this years winner.
And Systems I found your reposting of your Christmas list very interesting. If anybody else did lists back then isnt it amazing how our fancies back then virtually match what we like now. The National winner never has much to prove by the turn of the year in his winning season. Fascinating stuff. Unfortunately I didn’t back Rambling Minster after his New Years Day win!
Back to the Class 1/Grade 1 stat, didn’t King Johns Castle finish second in a C1/G1 chase?
#261
February 15th, 2009 19:28
Surprised no one has mentioned the Hennessy from today yet. Just watched it again and very impressed by Notre Pere once again. Still unlikely to win with his current weight especially if it does increase which its likely to do. However, we were all talking about the possibility of Denman ruining this stat, or the likes of War of Attrition or Exotic Dancer having a chance if they run. Well today Notre Pere showed no humiliation in coming a very decent 2nd to Neptunes Collonges who’s OR before the race was 178 and I believe ran up to his best (Was being ridden to make sure he won).
Assuming he did run up to his OR then Notre Pere has to be rated at 170+ based on todays run, and the fact that he was staying on indicated he may well have beat NC given more distance. His current weight in the National puts him around 160-161.
Now I’m not saying I will be backing him, just saying if we’re discussing the likes of Denman and Exotic Dancer upsetting the OR/Weight stat then we have to also contemplate this horse who has proven stamina and a great jumper. And although appearing to be burdened at the weights with an OR of only 138 he appears to be quite a few lbs well in after todays performance.
Ells
1
#262
February 15th, 2009 19:31
No problems Wacky, we (as a group of bloggers) got it right in the end eventually pretty much, i was only frustrated becasue when i tipped up Snowy Morning as each way value i was repeatedly ignored / mocked lol. I am a trends man BUT i follow my own instinct with that.
What i will say about Rambling Minster, which is the same thing i said about D’Argent last year, he ticks many of the boxes BUT this does not necessarily mean the winner has been found. Even ignoring the luck factor which does exist, there are runs of his in the past that don’t fill me with confidence. On recent form, he looks great but will he be cantering along after 4 and a half miles in the same fashion? I for one will remain sceptical. The value was had at 40s and above
Re HOT WELD. Yes he has been off the track for a long time but remember, so had Miinehoma. He has reportedly been laid out for this race and a prep run over hurdles will be sufficient if he has been trained for this. He will be running off 10 stone on the big day, and for a horse with so much class over the longer distances, i think he will have too much in hand over the rest.
#263
February 15th, 2009 20:00
Hi Russell. Big day for Hot Weld on Wednesday at Doncaster in 3mile chase. It will be soft but ground shouldn’t be any worse than that. I posted earlier about Aldaniti ‘81 and Miinnehoma ‘94 who both came back and only run one and two prep runs respectively and they both notched a chase win before Aintree, as did Last Suspect ‘85 who only had 3 preps. Do you think HW needs to win?
#264
February 15th, 2009 20:32
Hi guys.
Thanks Silver Birch and Pablo for info.
I think we’re all doing great as a team but let’s keep it like that – as a TEAM.
So much time was spent on the overrated (on current form that is) Butler’s Cabin, so let’s NOT make the same mistake with RAMBO.
I think I sum up many’s opinion here: A progressive stayer, coming into the form of his life (we’ve defo not seen the end of his progressiveness) and couple that with his PERFECT WEIGHT and we have many’s current front runner. Does that mean the race is over – of course not. Does it mean his odds at 25s and anything above over=superb value – yes it absolutely does!!
I TOTALLY agree that STATS of exact positioning before the GN are interesting but NOT an important trend – except VV bad form, of course which does not bode well. COD first with Eider double, RAMBO maybe first in years at a teble win streak inc GN – but let’s not be blinkered – these stats are NOT a deal breaker. One MASSIVE plus for me though is his HUGELY talented jumping – my bets will feel in very good hoofs (lol) on GN day. I can tell you of my considerable holdings on RAMBO just now, not many will be getting laid off.
Let’s push on now as a team and focus on the REST of the field.
Wacky, Systems, Silver, Pablo, Crisp, Puzzled, Rascal, Daniel, KJ and all you greats on this blog – let’s evaluate the rest of the field.
What do we think of both Parsons and Hot Weld – not much recently at all to go on but the class is there. Are they rumoured to run? What do we feel they need to do to be shortlisted by the Team, and have they a schedule upcoming that could see their prep back on track and satisfy the Team?
#265
February 15th, 2009 20:39
Re Rambling Minster being tired at the end of the race, lets not forget that 3m5f round Haydock is a long 3m5f and when its heavy at Haydock, it really is heavy. On the basis of that run, I have abosolutely no doubts that Ramlbing Minster will stay the distance at Aintree.
#266
February 15th, 2009 20:48
I agree with the words of caution on Rambling Minster and I also speak from a position of winning money (c£2k) if he wins the National. He put up a superb jumping performance on Saturday and I was personally a bit surprised that Ladbrokes still went 25/1. But Ladbrokes do know the time of day and I see he is now 20/1 at Lads. And so I backed him again this morning. If he makes the line up, then he could be around 10/1 on the day. It may be over simplifying it but I remain of the view that (FR) breds get the red pen treatment and so out goes Butlers Cabin, My Will etc. Hot Weld I too like but he will only have had one run come Aintree and so it is hard to back him with confidence. He is laso 62 in the list and needs 22 to come out to get a run. A small saver before he runs this week would be the advice. My short list remains Rambo, Kilbeggan Blade (63 on the list and so may not get in either), Souther Vic and State of Play (and outsiders worth a few bob on Betfair) are Darkness and Reveillez (has to have anoher run). The weights should go down to the low ten stones+ at least and so there will still be a big weight difference between top and bottom weights. But I have very much enjoyed reading the threads guys – thanks.
#267
February 15th, 2009 21:09
Well I dont expect either of Parsons/Hot Weld to get four prep runs in. Does that they can’t win? No. We need to understand the figures and why theey are there. It would seem that modern training methods consider that four to six prep runs is the ideal sort of campaign for a horse aimed at the National, in an ideal world. But horses are not machines. Injuries, going concerns upset plans. Ok we’ve only had three winners with 3 or less prep runs in 27 runnings but I would say that is more like an occurence, like the wearing of blinkers, it’s happened before/it’ll happen again. As I mentioned though in earlier post Aldaniti, Last Suspect and Miinnehoma all won a chase in their preps.
#268
February 15th, 2009 21:31
Both State of Play and Parsons Legacy have had two runs, like good ground and go well fresh (both won first time out) – perhaps they won’t run again until the race itself?
State of Play has previously won at Aintree after a break since before Xmas (he then had a seven month break before winning the Hennessy first time out)
Crisp – do you know if a horse won the National in the last 30 odd years without a run after Xmas?
#269
February 15th, 2009 21:43
Yes you are quite right Showlad it is time to move on and have a look at the other contenders, we don’t want to miss anything…..if their is a chink in Rambos armour then it’s best we try and find it now
Parsons Legacy is one still on my savers list but i am concerned that his race pattern is beginning to form just like last years….we were crying out for him to run as he fitted nicely into all the current stats but a week or 2 before the race he was withdrawn without the runs we wanted to see and his chance was gone along with all our monies
For me i would want to see a very good run before i risked any money on him this year back in December when he pulled up in the Boylepoker he was facing many of this years entries….and at this stage i don’t think that form is good enough.
Hot Weld is indeed more difficult to sum up, he has the long distance form and does tick all the boxes but i am very concerned that he has to overcome nearly 2 years off the track and will not fit in at least 3 runs before the National(but in saying that he did run 3 times in April 2007 winning Twice) so you never know with this trainer, if he thinks he needs the runs for peek fitness then he might just run him again soon after Wednesday.
But in saying all this i would sooner have a saver bet on Hot Weld based purely on his previous long distance form rather than Parsons legacy….sure the stats we seem to apply do indeed help find the winners but this horse has gone the distance, and the fact that he has been there and done it i think speaks volumes.
#270
February 15th, 2009 21:48
Pablo i agree i think that State of play will want to run fresh and if he lines up the next time we see him run will be in the big race itself…. Evan Williams has made it known that he thinks he has found the key to this horse and openly acknowledges that he ran him too often in the past.
So if he takes his chance than he will be one with a break of over 3 months since his last race.
#271
February 15th, 2009 22:00
Ok – so how about a list of horses to take a close look at next time out?
To start…
Parsons Legacy
My Will
Hot Weld
Southern Vic
#272
February 15th, 2009 22:05
Great List Pablo for closer spec
#273
February 15th, 2009 22:08
I’d rule out the French Bred (My Will) Pablo.
#274
February 15th, 2009 22:12
I’m new to this forum so go easy on me. I’m generally skeptical about statistics but this is a race where the stats are an incredibly powerful tool in predicting the winner. Some say the National is a lottery but on the contrary, winners of the race have remarkably similar profiles.
Some criteria I use are as follows:
-Won over at least 3m (11/11)
-Won a class 1 or class 2 chase (11/11)
-Originally allotted 9st12-10s13 (10/11)
-Officially rated 136-147 (10/11)
-Ran between 10 and 27 times over fences (10/11)
If you apply these criteria you are left with the following shortlist:
BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05
PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-04
REVEILLEZ 10-10-04
FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-03
GOLDEN FLIGHT (FR) 10-10-03
L’AMI (FR) 10-10-03
SIMON 10-10-03
IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-01
RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01
SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01
ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00
HOT WELD 10-9-13
KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13
Make of it what you will but those basic criteria have shortlisted virtually all of the recent winners. I think there’s a very high chance the winner will come from that lot. Accordingly, last week I took the 33s and 40s available on Southern Vic and Rambling Minster respectively and will be adding many of the other shortlisted horses to my portfolio over the coming weeks.
#275
February 15th, 2009 22:38
Do i think Hot Weld needs to win on his return at Doncaster? not necessarily win, this is not a trend that would rule him out, i just want to see him run a good race without visibly tiring extensively in the last half mile. The ground at Aintree won’t be a problem for him as the chances of it being good / good to soft are v high. Hot Weld would only really be at a disadv. if it was heavy
I for one dont think the ground at Haydock was that much of a bog. So Rambling Minster’s stamina i don’t think has been fully satisfied yet. But yes, lets move on to other contenders!!
#276
February 15th, 2009 23:27
Russell,
Rambling Minister has won over 4m on Soft ground with 11-7 on his back. If that doesn’t satisfy you i’m not sure what will!
#277
February 16th, 2009 01:02
“Ok – so how about a list of horses to take a close look at next time out?”
Add Darkness to the list.
On a point of history. the last time a Fav won two years in a row was 1893 and 1894? I really dont want my money on the FAV! Currently its close between BC, HTE and BFT.
#278
February 16th, 2009 01:06
Any more thoughts on State of Play please. I have him on my short list but am worried about his possible weight but I notice so many out there have him as a good thing.
No money on him yet so please can I have your views soon as I am very tempted.
#279
February 16th, 2009 01:57
State of Play will arguably need a run before Aintree – the horse is entered for the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham (and the Gold Cup) to freshen it up?
State of Play has got a lot going for it for the GN – especially if it recaptures 2006 Hennessy form. The weight wouldn’t put me off (unless it soars to over 11 stone with drop-outs), he’s a reliable jumper, perfect long-term form and experience (13 chases and 5 wins), fourth season chaser, won at Aintree (ok, it was the Mildmay), twice come out on top in big fields, and has mixed it in classy company without disgrace.
I’m not sure owners/trainer are taking the Grand National seriously though judging by this season’s preparation. I would have expected him to be taking a shot at the Welsh National on Boxing Day rather than chasing home Cloudy Lane at Wetherby??
I’m keeping a watching brief for now. A decent run at Cheltenham may see the price down below 20/1 for the National though.
#280
February 16th, 2009 04:19
re – state of Play
Stand back and look at the GN list. How many horses between 10.1 and 10.8 have won the Hennessy and thought good enough to run in the Gold cup – finished 6th.with Neptune Collonges 8th. A horse of this class on 10.8 must be worth a second look even if the wts. go up.
#281
February 16th, 2009 04:46
re- Rambling Minister –
What a performance, he looks to be the one.
Very hard to find any faults with this horse apart from a few obvious minor things that are not worth mentioning. Last year proved it doesn’t pay to dig 2 deep.
At present he looks to be the one.
#282
February 16th, 2009 08:55
Had a classic “bet to nothing” on Saturday. Had £4 at 350/1 on Rambling Minister to win both Saturday’s race and the big one in April. I’m a great believer in such bets…once had a couple of quid on Justin Gatlin at 100/1 to win Olympic 100 metres gold.
I wanted to keep on the right side of Rambo and i’ve now done that and some.
Not counting any chickens yet though–there’s still a dark horse or two out there who will be springers in the market before off time.
#283
February 16th, 2009 10:21
Pablo- I’ll keep checking but the longest gap between prep run and National I’ve found so far is Aldaniti ‘81 – 52 days.
It’s unlikely but if the weights didn’t go up I think State Of Play could win it in style off 10-8,Nat OR 150, best OR 160- 10lbs less and he’s still winning races. I suppose you would have to give him a chance with anything up to 10-13/11-1, remember bottom weight could be 10-2/10-4, but as it’s been said earlier how serious / worried are connections about a weight rise and SOP isn’t very big. I’d prefer it if he had another spin round in the Gold Cup, finished in top 6. May be if Madison Du bulldozer wins GC Pipe might be tempted to do the double which would be the best scenario for SOP.
Miinnehoma- I’ve just come across those fascinating 1st , 2nd, 3rd, strike rate in chases statistics of GN winners that you posted last year. 14/18 winners have had 50% or more, the others had at least 42%(I make Rambling Minster’s 40%)
#284
February 16th, 2009 10:40
Systemsman,
State of Play is a horse that I find very difficult to form a conclusion about. When he followed up his excellent Aintree win with his Hennessy triumph he looked a most progressive horse but since then I don’t think he has progressed a great deal, as much of his form has been indifferent. He has run some poor races but every 2nd or 3rd run delivers a performance which won’t let you write him off completely! For example, his form in the 2nd half of last season was poor but he comes back and wins the Charlie hall before once again running a bit below par in the Roland Merrick.
One thing I do believe is that this horse runs best fresh, and Evan Williams ran him too frequently last season. I would see him running between now and Aintree as a big negative. 4 of his last 5 wins have come in October and November and 3 of those being his seasonal debut. Also, when he won at Aintree in ‘06, that was his first run since Boxing Day. Every one of his 7 career wins has come after a gap of a minimum of 5 weeks since his previous run. If I had backed him I would want to see him go there a fresh horse.
If the weights don’t go up too much, and if he goes there a fresh horse with the ground good-soft or better (he has won on soft but I think he’s better on a sound surface), he could run a blinder. I don’t think I would back him yet though because if he runs at Cheltenham I really think that would ruin his chances.
#285
February 16th, 2009 11:30
On the advice given think I will wait a bit longer on State of Play (or might just have a small bet next weehk)- the key has to be to get in on 11.01 or less and preferably under 11.00. He appears to be one horse we dont want to see run again till the GN so the price should hold at least to Cheltenham should he run there (but best if he dosnt from what The Stayer says {exellent post by the way]).
I put my hands up and now admit Rambo is on of the two best ante post bets currently (but i can find a few problems with trends such as Crisp 73 mentioned). I woud post them but I get the feeling most would not want to know and it would be an unpopuler post, condemended by all.
#286
February 16th, 2009 11:56
Across all the bookies on ‘oddschecker’ there are currently 7 horses quoted as a fav or joint-fav for that company. These are;
Butlers Cabin
Hear The Echo
Big Fella Thanks
Rambling Minster
My Will
Comply or Die
Notre Pere
The bookies don’t seem able to pick a winner at this stage, so no wonder we can’t fully agree between ourselves!
If your raceday portfolio was to include the winners of the Haydock Gold Cup, Racing Post Chase, Eider and Grimthorpe you would probably have a good shout given the form of those selections. The key will be in getting the money on for the GN before those races are run. Many of us managed it this Saturday, lets hope the next 3 weekends are equally productive.
#287
February 16th, 2009 12:06
Trying to summarise some of the points:
Parsons Legacy
Only run twice this season – many people fancied this one last year until it was pulled out before the race – interested to see how it gets on next time out – will it run before Aintree? It won first time out after 9 month break this season
My Will
He’s a Frenchie but has class and will watch his next run with interest – likely to be the Gold Cup and if he’s staying on strongly up that hill – which he didn’t do in 2007 – might have a saver
Hot Weld
This one likes the sun on its back and goodish ground and has stayed 4 miles before – sounds like Aintree in April? – very interested to see how it gets on this week
Southern Vic
Trained for this by Walsh who knows his business – very similar to the way Papillon was trained – variety of trips etc – many of us eager to see this one perform well because we have ante-post vouchers on this one
Darkness
Handicapper given this one a real chance – needs an encouraging run and then it’s all systems go – owned by Andrew Lloyd-Webber so BBC creaming themselves if this one goes in – Eurovision blah blah blah
Simon
Fallen twice at Valentine’s second time around – might be racing off lowest racing weight 3rd time around – needs another run first – usually warms up with Racing Post Chase but not entered this year
Brooklyn Brownie
Good staying pedigree, some form with Snoopy Loopy and stayed on well into 2nd place over National fences (on soft ground which is not ideal) – might not get in but another sound run would be nice
Reveillez
Decent horse coming back from injury – pulled up on reappearance with jumping errors too – needs another run but trading at a big price if he performs well
State of Play
Some of us would consider another prep run a negative rather than a positive
Other ones I’m keeping an eye on (but probably not for you trends boys) – Snowy Morning, Cane Brake, Irish Invader and Fleet Street
#288
February 16th, 2009 12:34
Systems post,post! I think we do need to look at others but any info is good info, you’re doing a public service!
Good points,The Stayer, but can any horse win the National without a prep run within say eight weeks( covering the fairytale Aldaniti factor)? Not raced over 27f so we would have to take stamina on trust. The point about running well fresh is important, but doesn’t look as though he will have his prep before Cheltenham, prep runs at Cheltenham are not bad but do we think a negative for SOP? After his 6th in Kauto Star’s Gold Cup he finished 31 lengths, over 25f, behind Exotic Dancer at Aintree receiving just 4lbs. While it may not have been a great performance for SOP, I think any of the other contenders for this year’s National wouldn’t mind that.
#289
February 16th, 2009 12:46
Crisp – if State of Play has a prep run at Cheltenham or anywhere else (unless over hurdles) I will trade out at the start of that prep race and take a profit – I want it fresh come race day
#290
February 16th, 2009 12:49
Crisp,
He was only beaten about 9l by ED in the Gold Cup and that was off level weights so getting beaten 31l by the same horse at Aintree when 4lbs better off was a disappointing run and a lower level of form.
I agree with the general principle that you want a horse to be sharp for the National because any chinks in fitness are sure to be exposed over the 4m4f trip. However, you do have to take each horse on it’s own merits. Most horses do like to be kept on the go and improve for a couple of runs, but not all, and a look through State of Play’s form gives a strong impression that this is a horse that is best after a break. I honestly think that if State of Play goes to Cheltenham he will leave his National chance there.
Whether Evan Williams can get him fit enough for the National is another thing, but he got him fit enough for the Hennessy first time out.
#291
February 16th, 2009 12:56
Pablo im also keeping one eye on Fleet Street as from what i can see he fits many of the trends for the national.
I think Saturday will be the deciding factor for Fleet Street but if he goes well there i cant see 66’s lasting long on him but on the other side of the coin if he doesn’t do well there then thats his national chances gone in my opinion.
#292
February 16th, 2009 13:09
Brian – I’m on Fleet Street at fancy prices on Betfair and am looking for a good run on Saturday if ground not too soft – nice weight in National if it stays
#293
February 16th, 2009 14:30
Bobbyjo Chase @ Fairyhouse this Saturday @ 3:15pm
Black Apalachi
Chelsea Harbour
Snowy Morning
Southern Vic
all down to run…
#294
February 16th, 2009 14:44
Systemsman asked for a list of horses rated 135-145 with a C1 chase place at distance beyond 3 miles.
I have only gone as low as OR of 139, as anything below is touch and go to get in at this stage. The horses are, with the relevant distances in furlongs;
Abbeybraney 25f(never won over 3 miles)
Golden Flight 29f (no runs yet this season, or last season)
L’AMI 28f
SIMON 26f
BATTLECRY 25f
CORNISH SETT 30f
Musica Bella 28f (Never won over 3 miles)
DARKNESS 25f
TRABOLGAN 27f
HOT WELD 33f
CHARACTER BUILDING 27f
HIMALAYAN TRAIL 34f
IDLE TALK 28f
KELAMI 30f
ZABENZ 25f
The observant amongst you will have noticed this has knocked GARDE CHAMPETRE out of contenion…from a stats point of view at least… his only C1 place came over hurdles at 19f.
Personally I would throw the net as high as State of Play in terms of OR, but that’s not what was asked for!
#295
February 16th, 2009 14:48
I should point out Southern Vic has placed in a C1 at 24f, but not beyond. So its not impossible for him to win at the moment, although only Monty’s Pass and Red Marauder have done this in the past 25 years.
#296
February 16th, 2009 15:03
The Bobbyjo Chase should be informative.
Had a quick look at the Eider entries and I don’t think any have an entry in the National. It actually looks a pretty low-grade affair with the top ones rated only 136.
#297
February 16th, 2009 15:15
Hi Guys….some good posts of late.
Re State of play i too agree that if he does indeed run between now and post time then his chance has gone, maybe for him the National has been an afterthought and had the trainer aimed him more at this race then he would maybe had run him in late Jan early Feb, for me A run in March would be too late as we have agreed he wants to go fresh.
I think at this stage really a bit of common sense needs to be applied to the stats. sure the basic current stats that we apply do indeed help us narrow down the field and leaves us with a bunch of horses.
Now most are going to be running for what is maybe their final preps between now and Mid March so see how they run, be bold if they don’t impress then scratch them. Sometimes i think that because they meet a few stats then we become frightened to elimate them just in case, but if the horse don’t show much, stats or not the likely-hood is it won’t win.
I remember around this time last year Comply or Die put in a fantastic performance to win the Eider and some talked it down, we spoke for days about the blinkers thing and some ultimatly talked themselves out of the winner and 33/1 25/1 20/1 (all these fancy prices were lost) and he romped home the 7/1 favourite.
After Rambos performance Saturday we should have a few quid even at the 20/1 offered today as it was a good performance sure it is not the 40’s that was available but 20/1 is still a fancy price to me
(don’t get me wrong he might not win but based on Saturday he must be a live contender. Then look at others in the coming weeks and do the same if they impress, this way i am sure we will find the winner.
Should we really elimate a horse because it wears blinkers, Theoretically their is no reason that blinkers that are applied to help will in the end hinder, should we really eliminate a horse because it is French bred and considered not bred for distance when a French bred like Garde Champetre has won Twice over 3m7F and placed once(this is not one of my fancies by the way because of him being more aimed at Cheltenham than Aintree)
In 1994 should we have eliminated Miinnehoma because no comedian had ever owned a national winner before?
At this stage common sense should prevail,if we look too deeply then we will talk ourselves out of a possible winner, Sure apply the stats but ultimately let your eyes be the guide.
#298
February 16th, 2009 15:29
There are a lot of positive comments on this blog about Kilbeggan Blade, and I happen to agree. However, are we sure he will get in?
Does anyone have any backdated info from last year comparing weights at this initial stage against who finally got in on the day. i.e if your horse was in 65th position in the weights (as a random example) at this equivalent stage last year, did they end up getting in on the day?
Hope that makes sense. Can’t check any other racing sites at work!
#299
February 16th, 2009 15:33
Good post Puzzled.
You do have to be careful about the stats you go by. Further up I posted the ones I follow, and I think they are the crucial ones. Use these to eliminate the horses that are unlikely to win then to make your selections you have to go on form, going etc.
I see Garde Champetre has been mentioned a few times. He ticks a lot of the right boxes and has made my shortlist but he is one of the horses i’m wanting to pass over to be honest.
I don’t think his level of form over fences is good enough. In his novice chase campaign he only won once and in fact ran as a novice for two seasons as he didn’t get his head in front the first time! He ran poorly in the 4-miler at the Festival as well.
He then switched to the Banks/X-Country races and does boast decent good recent form. But these races, barring one or two specialists, are typically made up of 10, 11, 12 year old chasers that have lost their way and their trainers are using the race to try and “rekindle their interest.” They’re often run at a pretty slow pace as well. If you take the times of the Cheltenham races (3m7f) then scale them up to what it would be over 4m4f, you typically get a time 30-40 secs slower than most Nationals. I think he’l get taken off his feet.
#300
February 16th, 2009 15:47
So the Eider is a dud next Saturday then – never mind…
Still leaves Racing Post Chase, 3:10 (Rough Quest did the double) and Bobbyjo Chase,3:15 (Hedgehunter did the double)
After those two races are we going to see anything as dramatic as the plunge on Rambo last weekend?
Or loads on the drift…
#301
February 16th, 2009 15:48
Like you The stayey i am not really a fan of GC, i think that there are better horses to be considered at this stage, i know Silver birch took the Cheltenham X country, National route but i am not really a fan of a horse having this kina preparation.
If anyone fancies Hot Weld then the 33’s readily available might look very generous after Wednesdays race.
#302
February 16th, 2009 15:50
Agree with you Stayer. Puzzled, I like your posts and they make a lot of sense. My suggestion is that we try agree the 6 or 7 trend categories that we wish to live or die by, agree our shortlist and then monitor runners over the next week or two, particularly at the Festival. I also share the view that a run at Cheltenham for State of Play would be a negative and I have already backed him at 33/1. My short list that I have backed is Rambling Minster, Southern Vic, State of Play and Kilbeggan Blade (might do well to get a run). I have backed two outsiders at ridiculous prices on Betfair (Darkness and Reveillez).
Puzzled makes a very good point on the headgear argument. Anyone who did not be open minded enough to ignore that trend last year (and I am pretty much in that cetegory) missed out on a winner. That is why I’d like to see us agree on the core trends we will work to.
I am a great believer in getting the red pen anything with (FR) after its name. It is 100 years since the last French bred winner of the National (1909) and of the last 80 odd FR bred horses to run in the race, only 6 have been placed. OK so Clan Royal and Royal Auclair have been placed but they have not won – and as for Butler’s Cabin, he had a long way to go when he fell last year and he has not run this. He definitely must go, from my point of view.
But we have been running this thread as a really cracking collegiate effort and I am happy to be convinced by anyone else that I should be more open minded on FR breds, the weights, Official rating etc.
As I have offered before, I have a spreadsheet with the top 70 runners in it and it is largely complete in terms of measuing each againt the top 9 or 10 key trends. I would be happy to share that, if anyone wants to help me complete it and check the data that I have included in it.
Cheers
#303
February 16th, 2009 15:55
I have 4 selections for the National, all low weighted and one of those is Kilbeggan Blade. He seems to fit most major trends so would somebody PLEASE do me the favour of telling me why he’s not rated by the informed members here?. Is his TS too low. What about entries before the National? He’s definitely not French.
#304
February 16th, 2009 16:05
Whitearab Says:
February 16th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
I am a great believer in getting the red pen anything with (FR) after its name. It is 100 years since the last French bred winner of the National (1909) and of the last 80 odd FR bred horses to run in the race, only 6 have been placed.
Out of interest do you have the same stats for the irish and british bred horses over the same time frame as the French breds?
#305
February 16th, 2009 16:06
Good points made on State of Play’s form/likes/dislikes. The point I’m trying to make is that he will not need to be at his best to win the National. Some horses have needed career bests TS/RPR to win this race. State Of Play would surely though need time on the racecourse to build up stamina reserves whether he runs best fresh over 3 miles or not. The amount of time between last prep run and National is a really strong stat. Nothing has won the National with a gap of longer than 52 days, if ever,in modern times though it has to accepted that one or two have been second, Mely Moss/Clan Royal for instance.
#306
February 16th, 2009 16:06
Puzzled,
It’s not so much the X-country race being used as a National prep, it’s the fact that outside of the X-country arena Garde Champetre boasts very ordinary form over fences – form not good enough to win a National. Silver Birch was different in that he was not a X-Country specialist and had a level of form over conventional obtacles to suggest he was good enough to win the National (Welsh National and Becher Chase winner).
Whitearab,
French breds haven’t had the greatest success over recent years but we seem to have more and more French breds being trained in Britain (and now Ireland too) and I think it’s only a matter of time before one wins. They have already been knocking on the door with Clan Royal and Royal Auclair. And don’t forget winners Amberleigh House and Numbersixvalverde, both Irish bred but had a French sire and French dam respectively. As you say, you live or die by the stats that you adopt but you’re braver than me if you adopt that one!
#307
February 16th, 2009 16:17
Ardaghey and Dun Doire were the lowest weighted horses to run in the race last year. At this equivalent declaration stage they were joint 70th in the list (along with a few others who did not make the final cut). There is no guarantee that this pattern will be replicated this year but, assuming it is, the following horses are on that cusp:
62nd Hot Weld
= Kilbeggan Blade
64th Brooklyn Brownie
= Character Building
= Conna Castle
= Himalayan Trail
= Piraya
= Tumbling Dice
70th Arteea
= Cerium
= Idle Talk
= Kelami
= Zabenz
Does anyone think Brooklyn Brownie has an e/w squeak if it gets in?
#308
February 16th, 2009 18:00
I’m not a fan of Kilbeggan Blade
He was all out to win at Sandown (right handed track with tough finish) under an outstanding ride from AP McCoy – otherwise he simply would not have won
Rambling Minster was beaten fair and square that day but was still staying on very well and travelled well too (looking like the winner) – see the video
Subsequently Rambo has excelled with 2 career bests
I would suggest that history shows that Kilbeggan has peaked already this season and unless his stamina proves otherwise – should stay all day – I cannot have him winning the National
I don’t like his running style, nor the fact that he’s shown absolutely dismal form in the Spring
I don’t think he has the necessary class and tactical speed to win – might run into a place but I would be very shocked if this were to prevail
#309
February 16th, 2009 18:41
Daniel Edwards
“Personally I would throw the net as high as State of Play in terms of OR, but that’s not what was asked for!”
Quite correct Daniel (bst to lplay safe at this stage)and I have done this for my own short list which is almost reday to post – just got to tinker with ita bit here and there.
Would it be posible for you to post the full list up to State Of Play. Sorry if i was being a little to “risk taking” – it is clearly best to have the full list.
Two to have doubts about:
GARDE CHAMPETRE – not placed (1/2/3) in a C1 chase.
HIMALAYAN TRAIL !! – failed to complete in two races this season – a big no no for trends (my secret GN trends “Black Book” states that any horse that has failed to complete twice in GN season should be ignored!). Poor old HT.
#310
February 16th, 2009 19:09
I agree Pablo, Kilbeggan Blade was in my final 12 but when you look at his TS 124 (quite low) it kinda put me off.
Like it has been said on here before the national is not a lottery race like many think, you need a degree of class and a good cruising speed to win. The winner is normally in the first 6-7 2nd time round cruising along, and i just cannot see Kilbeggan doing this.
#311
February 16th, 2009 20:36
Does anybody know when the Grimthorpe Chase is?
#312
February 16th, 2009 21:21
Grimthorpe = 28th Feb
#313
February 16th, 2009 22:20
Parsons Legacy
Rambling Minister
Southern Vic.
Cant believe the price still on Parsons with Betfair,Ive already taken 120`s and 110`s and will not be greedy.
Just taken the 22`s for Rambling,yes I missed the boat with Laddies on saturday.
Also had Southern Vic at 48.
#314
February 16th, 2009 22:39
Nice one Pablo! I shall make a note of it. Although I am sure the valuable input of everyone on this site wouldn’t have let me miss it
#315
February 16th, 2009 23:11
Systemsman i respect your stat concerning Himalayan Trail being pulled up in 2 races this season, i would just like to say in his defence both races were on heavy ground & even Black Apalachi was pulled up in the first one,also i read an article in todays Racing Post with James Mangan were he said that the horse disliked the heavy ground, they have also tried him with a tongue tie and there has been a great improvement, he plans to run him at the weekend and we will see the real horse. In the becher chase were he came 5th Barry Geraghty said the horse jumped the fences like montys pass did,the horse isn’t far off meeting your important trends for the race and does he not have a profile of being laid out for the race by a trainer who has already done it once recently.
#316
February 16th, 2009 23:22
A few things I’m mulling over this evening….
1, Miko de Beauchene has not been tipped up much – are the form figures putting off punters? In particular the two recent ‘unseated’ and PU. In many ways the horse ticks the boxes and looks like he can can cart weight round marathon distances better than most. His performance on Saturday was arguably better than Rambo’s taking into account the weight and conditions? He’s a Welsh National winner and Haydock Gold Cup winner….that’s two bags of gold dust!! I would suggest that if he runs and finishes, he’s in the frame. Classy, proven battler with ‘boom or bust’ form figures.
2, How likely is Rambo to get in? Put another way, is there a realistic chance he will not make the starting line-up? Didn’t we sweat a bit over COD last year in very similar circumstances? There are a number of other fancied horses even worse off, reliant on 20+ horses above them pulling out. It could be a tight squeeze.
3, King Johns Castle should be a stronger horse this year but there are plenty of negatives to put against him, including the fact he’s not raced for a year and appears to lack ‘class.’ He came pretty close to stealing the headlines and ripping up the stats book last year though? Does he have any supporters out there?
#317
February 16th, 2009 23:53
To Crisp 73,
Spot on – very clever and kind of you to mention that little stat gem from last year. It certainly put the tin hat on D’Argent for me,with only 39% strike rate but unlike RM, he had other faults.
In fact systemsman said he was going to put that stat in his bag of tricks for this year.But I think he must have forgot, otherwise he would not have been touting the 3 donkeys some time ago. ie Black Apalachi, Hear the Echo and Chelsea Harbour.
Re – RM
Your right,RM has a 40% strike rate – this would be a new low but on the bright side only 2% below the lowest but 14/18 did have 50%+. Some stats will change slightly each year, so if RM wins,42% becomes 40%. No big deal if everything else is ok.
#318
February 17th, 2009 00:02
Johnny –
1. Miko is on my long shortlist but I understand connections are going for the Gold Cup, especially if it is soft going. I would wait and see what happns after the gold cup. The only other issues are it will probably carry at least 11st 1 and the dreaded letters FR after its name.
2. Rambo only needs 15 to come out Johnny.
3. Cant back this as not been out yet and again will probaby carry at least 11st 1 on the day.
#319
February 17th, 2009 09:58
Rambling Minster should almost certainly make the cut. I reckon that in the current top 40 there are at least 15 horses that are unlikely runners. Rambo is currently 55 on the list but after his win on Saturday is now the highest rated of the horses set to carry 10-01, which therefore makes him no. 52. He only needs 12 to come out. I think last year the last horse to make the cut was 62/63 in the original handicap so i’m confident he will get in.
I’m not too sure about this strike rate thing. Too many factors to consider why horses do/don’t win races. Is the horse fully fit? Does it like the ground? Is the trip correct for the horse? Is the horse trying or are connections trying to get the horse beat to knock a few pounds of for a target later in the season etc? I honestly don’t think you can write-off horses that have a poor strike rate, as it’s not always a true reflection of the horse’s ability or attitude.
#320
February 17th, 2009 10:16
Important post again Dan E. class 1 top3 place over 24f+.
The classy Darkness seems to be on the fringes of lots of lists, mine included, at this stage but what does everybody think about his performances in Scots and Welsh Nationals- pulled up both times? Both of his C1 wins came in fields of 7 or less so he hasn’t won a chase in a large field.
#321
February 17th, 2009 11:21
Darkness was once a decent horse and at first glance 66/1 looks big, but i’d actually want that sort of price on him just getting round. He’s a bad jumper and doesn’t travel well in his races. Some comments in running from his recent races read as:
“Several minor errors and never looked to be going well”
“Not jump well”
If that doesn’t put you off his record in races where there have been more than 16 runners reads as 0, P, P where the 0 was 18/20. If he doesn’t fall he’ll get badly outpaced, spit the dummy out and be tailed-off at the end of the first circut. Not for me.
#322
February 17th, 2009 12:21
Hi all, just a quick update to let you know that I have been making some revisions to my national analysis and scoring system and hope to upload my findings on the net somewhere in the next few days. I will post the address as soon as this is done. I have hit a hurdle so to speak on scoring for class 1 & 2 chase wins but I am working through those now. I am also going through the last ten winners to see how they would have scored using my system. Thankfully this appears to tie in perfectly with what I have so far. As I am fairly confident that not much will change once my scores are finalised here are my 12 against the field.
HOT WELD 10-9-13
RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01
KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13
HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12
DARKNESS 10-10-01
STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08
SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-06
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00
BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05
MON MOME (FR) 9-10-06
ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00
COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12
Of these I think it is safe to rule out STATE OF PLAY, SILVER BIRCH, MON MOME and COMPLY OR DIE.
Looking at their order in the handicap of the remaining horses we have:
62nd HOT WELD
55th RAMBLING MINSTER
63rd KILBEGGAN BLADE
66th HIMALAYAN TRAIL
52nd DARKNESS
60th GARDE CHAMPETRE
37th BUTLER’S CABIN
59th ALWAYS WAINING
Current prices and ground preference:
33-1 HOT WELD (Good To Firm)
20-1 RAMBLING MINSTER (Good)
33-1 KILBEGGAN BLADE (Soft)
33-1 HIMALAYAN TRAIL (Soft)
50-1 DARKNESS (Good to Soft)
40-1 GARDE CHAMPETRE (Soft)
16-1 BUTLER’S CABIN (Good)
150-1 ALWAYS WAINING (Good)
A very interesting race indeed if they all get in but my selections based on Good or Good to Soft ground, the likelihood of making the race and every other darn statistic I’ve thrown into the mix are:
1) RAMBLING MINSTER
2) DARKNESS
3) BUTLER’S CABIN
I look forward to sharing my full analysis with you online for your feedback and comment.
#323
February 17th, 2009 12:27
However, my gut instinct tells me that this years winner will be RAMBLING MINSTER, BUTLER’S CABIN or HOT WELD so please give me another 48 hours before I nail by flag to the mast.
#324
February 17th, 2009 12:38
Rascal,
I certainly agree with many on your shotlist, and Rambling Minster and Butler’s Cabin are both in my top 5 most likely winners.
Really can’t have Darkness though (see my previous post).
#325
February 17th, 2009 12:51
I appreciate what your saying Stayer but Darkness has no career falls. I’m interested in your comments about his performances in big fields and will look at that in more depth before I publish my final analysis. Infact, I have a feeling he shouldn’t be on my list – no wins since 2005? Is that right?
#326
February 17th, 2009 13:06
Very intersting post from Half Day Harry earlier, re Himalayan Trail. Looks like he might be due a run this weekend?
As I have stated previously on here, if HT runs a decent race before the national then the price will nosedive. Surely worth a few quid, given that he meets most stats…..
#327
February 17th, 2009 13:06
Darkness is in my ’small bets on outsiders’ list but I would not have such a definite view in ruling him out as The Stayer. The horse has won the Feltham (£70k race in 2005), been placed in the Royal and Sun Alliance at the Festival and been 3rd in a £50k 3 Mile chase at Haydock carrying 11st 12lbs, beating Rambling Minister by 16 1/2 lengths and giving him 4lbs into the bargain. So I would certainly not dismiss him completely – although I much prefer Rambling Minister and accept Darkness ran a shocker in the Welsh National (but don’t think soft is his ground).
#328
February 17th, 2009 13:18
Indeed, no win since 2005. Interestingly, as well, out of his 6 career wins 4 were with AP McCoy as the jockey. If he picks Darkness as his ride for the race I wonder how this will be perceived considering his successes, yet his poor record in the race.
To be fair, I don’t think I can put any of my money on Darkness for the race. His recent form has been very patchy, and as some have pointed out his performances in big fields have maybe found him out.
My 4 against the field will be very similar to others at this stage:
1.Rambling Minster
2.Butler’s Cabin
3.Garde Champetre
4.Kilbeggan Blade
#329
February 17th, 2009 13:18
BUTLER’S CABIN now best priced at 14-1, 12-1 generally. Looks like those who didn’t listen when it was 20s feel a bit silly now. Apart from Wacky of course, who’ll be thrilled at laying BC when it goes off 7-1 favourite.
#330
February 17th, 2009 13:22
Rascal, Whitearab,
Fair enough comments. Perhaps I have been too dismissive of his chances.
Rascal is correct in that he hasn’t won since December 2005 but he was off the course for over 18 months and has only ran 4 times since that, being placed twice.
Yes he’s won a Feltham and also been placed in a RSA Chase, but if you look at the RSA apart from the winner they have mostly turned out to be a pretty mediocre bunch.
My issue is with the way he jumps and travels and I don’t think he does either with enough fluency for this. Ok so he hasn’t actually tipped up but he does make mistakes, and over 4m4f they will catch up with him. His runs in very big fields have been very poor and I can’t see him enjoying the hurly-burly at Aintree.
#331
February 17th, 2009 13:38
Rascal nice work and very close to my own selections.
I wont put a penny on Hot Weld until it runs (so its a wait and see still but its getting late for prep runs!!).
Darkness is still the Dark horse but needs to run and do well in a prep race (wait and see but I have saver on him).
ALWAYS WAINING too big in price at this stage.
Himalayan Trail – two fails to finish in GN season (a big NO for trends, but I have already got a big bet on him)
KILBEGGAN BLADE and GARDE CHAMPETRE (I have early bets on but now feel very cold about their chances – a little big in the price range – too many 40/1’s)
Now I keep having this dream it the commentry on the GN 2009 coming up to the last fence:
“And it Rambling Minster and Butlers Cabin neck and neck as they approach the last in the 2009 Grand National – what a race, what a fiinsh. What a fantastic jump by …… to go into a lead over the last and now surges ahead of ……”
Fill in the gaps!
So Racscal I agree the top two curently are(sorry Wacky – heeee’s back!)
1. Rambling Minster
1. Butler Cabin (but MUST get a 1/2 or 3rd in a Chase over 25f or more prior to GN)
Anyone know BC next race?
#332
February 17th, 2009 13:42
Depends on the weather but I think it might be at Cheltenham now Systemsman. Did someone say Hot Weld was down to run this week?
#333
February 17th, 2009 13:50
Just checked – Hot Weld tomorrow 3:20 at Doncaster. We’ll be keeping a sharp eye on that race.
#334
February 17th, 2009 13:56
Re systemsmans dream
“And it Rambling Minster and Butlers Cabin neck and neck as they approach the last in the 2009 Grand National – what a race, what a fiinsh. What a fantastic jump by …… to go into a lead over the last and now surges ahead of ……”
You forgot to add the last bit systemsman – “and making a late run is Himalayan Trail, he’s closing in fast….and HIMALAYAN TRAIL WINS THE 2009 NATIONAL! ”
Well, ok, I’m getting a bit carried away, but he is 2nd on my current list after all!
#335
February 17th, 2009 14:01
Get the RED PEN through Butler’s Cabin. Would not have him at 20/1 if you offered me it now. Hope he continues to shorten up and leave the value about the real winner. You will be the one looking silly come Grand National day rascal (just teasing!).
There will be no mention of Bulter’s Cabin in the closing stages of the race commentary!
Rascal – note your comments too and agree with them on Darkness. I have a lot of respect for what you say.
#336
February 17th, 2009 14:23
Casting the net as high as State of Play brings in the following (again with their furthers C1 place in furlongs)
STATE OF PLAY 27f
MON MOME 30f
SILVER BIRCH 36f
BUTLERS CABIN 29f
Offshore Account 25f (only 6 chase runs)
PARSONS LEGACY 33f(See note below)
REVEILLEZ 33f
Just missing on the ideal profile is Opera Mundi on 24f, but he is a 7 year old.
Worth pointing out that since Rough Quest, all of the winners have placed in a C1 race over a distance of 3 miles or beyond, AT LEAST one season before winning their GN. Negative for Rambling Minster? I wouldnt say so, but its worth putting out there I think!
SO, on the basis of ;
1-Likely weight (assuming a rise of 6lb or more) of no more than 11_02
2- Aged 8-12 AND
3- Top 3 finish in a C1 race of a distance of 3 miles or further;
I think I can say with 98% certainty, that the winner of the GN this year will be on this list;
L’AMI
SIMON
BATTLECRY
CORNISH SETT
DARKNESS
RAMBLING MINSTER
TRABOLGAN
HOT WELD
CHARACTER BUILDING
HIMALAYAN TRAIL
SOUTHERN VIC
IDLE TALK
KELAMI
ZABENZ
STATE OF PLAY
MON MOME
SILVER BIRCH
BUTLERS CABIN
PARSONS LEGACY
REVEILLEZ
A lot of these can be scratched for the reasons already outlined. Quite a few frenc breds in there as well. Personally I would scrub quite a few so it looks like this;
BATTLECRY
CORNISH SETT
RAMBLING MINSTER
HOT WELD – Needs a run
SOUTHERN VIC
STATE OF PLAY – If he goes to Cheltenham, im not interested.
SILVER BIRCH – Needs a good run, or two
BUTLERS CABIN – Needs a good run
PARSONS LEGACY – See below.
REVEILLEZ – Needs a good run after last time PU
That’s my ‘long’ shortlist though! Im 85-90% certain the winner is on there. I wont be straying from that unless a horse not on there places in a C1 race over 3 miles or more in the next 3 weeks (i.e. before the end of the festival)
Looking at that list makes me very sweet on Rambling Minster, if the race were today that is!
NB Very worrying is the fact Parsons Legacy’s price has drifted from 40 to 65 on Betfair – This coupled with his poor last showing suggests to me he may not line up come race day.
#337
February 17th, 2009 14:33
Sorry, I forgot to add a win over 3 miles or more obviously.
#338
February 17th, 2009 14:50
Hi Dan – love ur list . very close to my own ….
ive got it down to the magnificent seven below assuming the weights significantly increase …
if they dont id add miko and my will …
STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08 Evan Williams
REVEILLEZ 10-10-04 Jonjo O’Neill
SIMON 10-10-03 John Spearing
RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01 Keith Reveley
SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01 Ted Walsh IRE
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00 J Enda Bolger IRE
HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12 Jimmy Mangan IRE
Ive been torturing myself about how to reduce the list further but ive decided ill make sure ive nibbled at the whole 7 and sit back and watch events unfold.. i think ur right that its unlikely that much can poss change before the great day now but ill keep an eye on the most talked about horse on this forum Butlers Cabin to see what he does . I just cant get away fron the fact that hes already been raised 12lbs by the aintree handicapper just for this one race (compared to his normal or this season) and thats without him even demonstrating yet hes capable of returning to last years form .!! ..
Jonjo also said he needs good ground so i reckon he will only have one more run before the big one and with current form figures of -808 or something like that hes gonna have to perform big time on his remaining race to warrant an interest.
#339
February 17th, 2009 15:01
RE Butlers Cabin
I see that Butlers cabin appears on so many lists, sure i understand that this horse has gone the distance and won some good races around the 4M mark, and he meets most trends, also i cannot disagree that he was really traveling when coming down in last years National, but his form since is so uninspiring his last 3 races have been 8/13, 13/17, 8/19.
WE all seem to have a great knowledge of racing and this race and surely we can see that the 12/1 currently on offer for the horse does not represent value, with his current form even the 20/1 advised seems a bit skinny to me.
When we look at some of the horses lining up this year and we also look at the current form on offer can we honestly say that Butlers Cabin earns his place at the head of the market?
For me i would want to see a really good run within the next 3 weeks for him to earn his place in my top 4
#340
February 17th, 2009 15:02
I hope and prey Butlers Cabin puts in a good run before the big day, as he is my biggest winner at the moment, with Parsons Legacy and Rambling Minster just behind. Still a long way to go that and that can all change.
Looking at my list made me think about Southern Vic a bit more, but I am reluctant to back a horse who given any indication he stays beyond 3 miles yet, not at 30.0 on Betfair anyway. If he can put it a belter a Fairyhouse this weekend, I may have a tiny nibble.
#341
February 17th, 2009 15:04
puzzled Says:
February 17th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
RE Butlers Cabin
I see that Butlers cabin appears on so many lists, sure i understand that this horse has gone the distance and won some good races around the 4M mark, and he meets most trends, also i cannot disagree that he was really traveling when coming down in last years National, but his form since is so uninspiring his last 3 races have been 8/13, 13/17, 8/19.
When we look at some of the horses lining up this year and we also look at the current form on offer can we honestly say that Butlers Cabin earns his place at the head of the market?
I have backed him on the basis that he is being aimed at this race and it would not surprise me at all if he put in a good run between now and race day. If and when he does, 20/1 would soon become 7/1F.
If he doesnt, I can lay off at the 16/1 or so MAX he is going to be and have lost nothing.
#342
February 17th, 2009 15:39
That’s very conservative I think Daniel he is already only 12 to 14 generally and add in the McCoy factor of people following him and with the bookies laying money on-course to shorten the official SP to rob blind the once a year punters I will be looking to lay off my 20-1 at single figure prices and have him running for me on a no lose basis and at least a 10-1 return should he win
#343
February 17th, 2009 15:42
I meant 16/1 if he doesnt run well between now and then. As I say that is the MAX I can see him going off if he does run. As you say, I think even without a good run between now and then we could be looking at 10/1 and shorter. I am set to lay my 20/1 at 10/1…the way his price is going at the moment, it may get that small even without another run.
#344
February 17th, 2009 15:55
Silver Birch Says:
STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08 Evan Williams
REVEILLEZ 10-10-04 Jonjo O’Neill
SIMON 10-10-03 John Spearing
RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01 Keith Reveley
SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01 Ted Walsh IRE
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00 J Enda Bolger IRE
HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12 Jimmy Mangan IRE
Interesting list SB, mainly for me because I have backed the bottom 4 and don’t think the other 3 have that much of a shout personally, Simon is a serial faller I can forgive one fall but two is too many he’s also shown no form this season to add to that. SoP already much discussed will he leave his race at the festival, Reveil is he fit is he a definite runner?
half day harry Says:
February 16th, 2009 at 11:11 pm
Systemsman i respect your stat concerning Himalayan Trail being pulled up in 2 races this season, i would just like to say in his defence both races were on heavy ground & even Black Apalachi was pulled up in the first one,also i read an article in todays Racing Post with James Mangan were he said that the horse disliked the heavy ground, they have also tried him with a tongue tie and there has been a great improvement, he plans to run him at the weekend and we will see the real horse. In the becher chase were he came 5th Barry Geraghty said the horse jumped the fences like montys pass did,the horse isn’t far off meeting your important trends for the race and does he not have a profile of being laid out for the race by a trainer who has already done it once recently.
Harry, Any chance you know what race Jimmy plans to run him in? Guessing in Ireland but over hurdles or fences? I also read a quote from Jimmy M from before his beecher run stating the reason he was running that race was to get him used to the national fences as the only reason Jimmy had bought him from Sue Smith was to try and win the GN! Which probably tells you how seriously he was taking those races in very unfavourable ground, much better to pull him up than risk him. Very tempted to top up my bet on him before the weekend in case the 33’s disappear.
#345
February 17th, 2009 16:09
Brody -
Id agree that in terms of fanciability im gravitating towards the bottom four on my list . State of Play is a bit of an enigma – however he does possess a high degree of class and if he trots up off 10 -8 to 10 -13 well all be kicking ourselves .. I think Reveillez is extremely interesting …ur right no guarantee he will turn up but worth a few pounds here and there at crazy odds – particularly as he seems to keep coming up on peoples trends analysis …
he won that 2m 5f handicap at cheltenham which i believe montys pass and amberleigh house also previously ran in before national glory and his whitbread 2nd was a fine effort giving ten pounds to hot weld after stumbling and ripping his shoe off with a lap to go – (my will back in 3rd)
Im also dying to know what race Jimmy Mangan is targettting Himalayan Trail at – can anybody out there help out .. !
#346
February 17th, 2009 16:20
Himalayan Trail has a similar profile to Monty’s Pass in his year leading up to race (albeit in a slightly different order)
Monty’s = Second in Topham to get him used to the National fences, then a win in a (Kerry) National (3m) followed by some mediocre hurdle outings to keep him ticking over
Himalayan = Win in a (Midlands) National (4m 2f), clear round prep over National fences in Beecher Chase (very tenderly ridden) and a couple of mediocre hurdle outings
The big difference is that Monty’s won a race in his build up and so far Himalayan has not put anything of note in the form book since switching to Mangan
That’s the reason I can’t back him before he runs next – rather take 16/1 after a convincing performance than twice the odds in hope that he reproduces (can’t see him going off much under 16/1 on the day – plenty of others for the Racing Post / BBC / Channel 4 to misinform punters about)
#347
February 17th, 2009 16:20
Found it, 4.50 at Naas, a 3m handicap hurdle will be watching with interest.
#348
February 17th, 2009 16:31
Brody & Silver Birch
Himalayan Trail is entered in a handicap hurdle over 3 miles at Naas on sunday lets hope he runs and puts in a good perfomance.
#349
February 17th, 2009 16:34
Good catch guys .. txs – hopefully we see a little improvement at the weekend – interesting stuff…..
#350
February 17th, 2009 16:34
A lot of people now getting negative about Garde Champetre,i’d been hoping he’d drift out more and get a wee bit more on, but no still getting bet on Betfair and was cut at one bookies today.I think this is a sign that providing he doesn’t get balloted out he’ll turn up.If it comes up soft he’s only got 10-0 prob have about 10-4 on the day.Still my number 1 !
#351
February 17th, 2009 16:35
Rascal Says:
February 17th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
BUTLER’S CABIN now best priced at 14-1, 12-1 generally. Looks like those who didn’t listen when it was 20s feel a bit silly now. Apart from Wacky of course, who’ll be thrilled at laying BC when it goes off 7-1 favourite.
Surely YOU should feel a bit silly Rascal! with such arrogant words how are you going to feel when/if he fails. Got enough problems narrowing it down this year with horses with more claims than him I’m afraid, the fact that he is jf with BFT a 7yr old speaks volumes to me. We are obviously still all divided on this horse, us “non believers” are not feeling silly and that we should have listened to our “betters” I hate that kind of suggestion sorry, it has no place here. We still all agree to disagree!
Horses on many of these fabulous new stats lists,(well done for all the hard work thats been going on! we’re going to need another thread soon!) include Simon who I could never see staying in touch towards the business end of the race or for that matter staying home in his own good time! less weight may help I suppose but I can’t see it making that much difference.
I also can’t see Parsons Legacy in this race. Still can’t shake off Himalayan Trail, excuses for recent runs seem justified he has the featherweight and as I said before he loves spring.
#352
February 17th, 2009 16:48
Point taken KJ – I didn’t mean to offend. I have backed BUTLERS CABIN at 20s and I am still glad I did but previously on this thread many people erred and its getting shorter and shorter. It’s great news for the layers and for those who got 20s who can cover their investment by laying the same. I did not mean to be intentionally arrogant, just tongue in cheek. Apologies. x x
#353
February 17th, 2009 17:01
This years shortlist has to be :-
Rambling Minster
Hot Weld
Black Apalachi
Garde Champetre
State of Play
Himalayan Trail
I always think it’s important to back a horses for the race ante-post who act different going – i.e. BA and GC will go on soft and the rest are really good ground horses although Rambo showed versatility last Saturday – very impressive – in the form of his life.
#354
February 17th, 2009 17:03
My other tip is to back BA now and then lay off in-running. Look at his Becher Chase win – led all the way round – he will trade a real short price in-running and this could be a good tactic. I’m on at 28-1 and think that is real value.
#355
February 17th, 2009 17:13
Three of the last ten winners had spent a year or more out with injury but came back as strong as ever – consider the Hot Weld angle – massive success over longer trips on good or quicker ground – runs tomorrow at Doncaster for his prep run – I will be watching but Ferdy reportedly has him back to his best.
The downside probably is that he could have done with a few more runs! Everyone agree?
#356
February 17th, 2009 17:19
Thanks for that Rascal, I know from last years run ins with Wacky that the written word can kinda morph its meaning! and feeling strongly about something is hard to put across without being taken a bit the wrong way. One minute I was happily catching up here with another 100posts+ since I last looked! and the next I felt rather annoyed and had to say something …and didn’t delete;)
Got to say I am overwhelmed by the input on this new thread, may have to make notes soon! Some fresh keen talent has emerged here and great to see some real oldies(no offence meant) in Stats man, Thaimark and Miinnehoma back!
#357
February 17th, 2009 17:22
Himalayan Trail seems popular with many on here. I’d be worried that he had only had the 8 chase runs, which is less than other National winners. Also, will ge get in? He’s currently no. 67 so it must be borderline.
#358
February 17th, 2009 17:35
That is my exact issue with Himalayan Trail – only 8 chases so far and with them 2 Pulled Ups this season. Again it is 67 on the list so literally touch and go if it makes it in – of course if balloted out money back but cant seem to rule in or out at the moment.
#359
February 17th, 2009 17:43
Afternoon lads,
I was looking through the form for Himalayan Trail and i must admit i found excuses for this poor runs this year, and thats always a good thing in the National because the featherweight he has been allocated comes into play, in a big way! My concern is that he wont get in, number 67 in the list? I am concerned enough that Hot Weld will struggle to make it in, and that is only 63…..
Looking through Rambo’s form (yes i know we are not talking about this one anymore) but I’m still not convinced. Pulled up in Scottish National 2007 and was never travelling well, has won over 4m on soft ground carrying 11st 7 but he had very little opposition. As i said before, i think the value has gone on this one, sure to start shorter on the day i suppose tho, all good for traders.
Butler’s Cabin and Simon are exactly the same as Bewleys Berry’s chances last year in mind. I spent all the buildup saying he would not stay and when push came to shove he didnt get home (did well to get 5th place money). Nothing has convinced me that Simon or Butler’s Cabin will a) jump round 2 circuits and b)have enough gas at the end to contest the finish
Why on earth Butler’s Cabin is 12/1?!! and joint favourite? in my mind, thats madness
Looking forward to Hot Weld tomorrow at Donny
#360
February 17th, 2009 18:06
Agree with you Russell, don’t thin Butler’s will get round – he is a renound quirky customer – also, I think McCoy will ride him and feel that he is cursed in this race – think back to him coasting along on Clan Royal and getting carried out by the loose horse! Think he will be like Scudamore and Francome – another of the greatest jockeys never to win the big race.
Is it me or is Garde Champetre only entered in the National at the moment – nothing on the RC website to say he is going for the X Country – this would give him a better chance I feel. Something I don’t like in my national bets is those that have run at the festival that same year – it is too taxing on the horse and the big race comes round far too quick – anybody disagree with this? Could affect State of Play for example if right.
#361
February 17th, 2009 18:09
Indeed Stayer. Him.T is inexperienced and hasn’t beaten much either, borderline in many respects! The weight and his progress last year in spring the only reasons I haven’t rule him out.
My pick of the featherweights no suprise here is still Rambo, just hope his impressive win hasn’t taken too much out of him, every horse has its limit, as we saw in the same race I think with Mon Mome and Cornish there great runs ended atleast temporarily.
Hot Weld tmw! interesting doesn’t he have a rather low TS?
did anyone look while I was away into TS chase stats in relation to recent TSs for winning the GN?
#362
February 17th, 2009 18:23
hot weld best chase ts 114 best hurdle ts 78
cornish setts owner on atr this afternoon saying he expects it to line up in the national.
#363
February 17th, 2009 19:00
Beware – long post!
Unless something really radical happens in the Bobbyjo Chase on Sunday I am going to do my best not to have any more bets until the week of the race – I can’t see any more value anywhere (I can see a lot of horses who are not value, but I’m not a layer)
During race week I am going back to basics – class, trip, form and preparation – all the clues should be out by then
However, the Grand National is usually won by a horse who has been prepared specifically for the race and not entered for the hell of it and prepared as an afterthought
This means that the trainers will want to find out whether their animal has a chance – the winner gets a fortune! – the best way to find out is to run it in a decent staying handicap or over stiff fences or both
It is no coincidence, in my mind at least, that the last umpteen winners had placed in (or won) a National (Grand, Irish, Scottish, Welsh, Midlands, Kerry, Borders etc) or the Beecher Chase or Racing Post Chase or a Hennessy (5th or better) or the Gold Cup at Cheltenham (5th of better)
These races are all over 3m+ and are either full of classy types or over stiff fences that take some jumping or both – jumping and stamina – BOTH are required to take the National
(The Eider is normally quite poor and COD had already qualified with a previous finish in the Hennessy behind Trabolgan)
Done some research and the following (in descending order of weight down to horse 70) have placed in or won one of the above races:
Exotic Dancer
Madison Du Berlais
Snoopy Loopy
Notre Pere
Air Force One
War Of Attrition
Snowy Morning
Cane Brake
Knowhere
Comply Or Die
Monkerhostin
Ollie Magern
Black Apalachi
Hear The Echo
King Johns Castle
Miko De Beauchene
My Will
Eurotrek
State of Play
Mon Mome
Silver Birch
Butlers Cabin
Parsons Legacy
L’Ami
Simon
Cornish Sett
Rambling Minster
Trabolgan
Hot Weld
Character Building
Himalayan Trail
That’s 31 in total – if they all line up that’s some staying chase!
In the coming weeks – by studying preparation, closer inspection of staying prowess and recent form in more detail – I think this will come down to 4 or 5 (plus a sensible application of some other trends)
I’m already on Rambo and State of Play – I need 2 or 3 more
In coming to this conclusion I have laid off bets on:
Darkness
Brooklyn Brownie
Reveillez
Smaller bets survive on:
Cane Brake
War Of Attrition
Snowy Morning (placed ages ago before he was so poor – looking for good run on Saturday or probably have to write off)
Does anyone think I should add any further races to my list – Bobbyjo Chase or any other chase in Ireland?
#364
February 17th, 2009 19:00
SILVER BIRCH will swerve the Cheltenham Festival nextmonth and instead run over hurdles before heading to the Grand National.
His trainer Gordon Elliott had been toying running him in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase, the race in which he finished second to Heads Onthe Ground before winning the National two years ago, but a change of plan has now been made.
The recent point-to-point winner had been expected to run at Punchestown on Wednesday but is now an intended runner in a point-to-point at Bennettsbridge in Kilkenny on Sunday instead.
Elliot said on Tuesday: “We decided to give Punchestown [over hurdles] on Wednesday a miss and the plan now is to run in anotherpoint-to-point in Kilkenny this Sunday and then go back over hurdles at Navan on the Sunday after Cheltenham. All going well, he’ll then go back to Liverpool.
“We decided it was the wrong thing to do to go back over the banks at Cheltenham as he might only get one more chance to go back for the National again.
“He’s in great nick and he worked very well this morning, so fingers crossed wecan get him to Aintree in one piece.”
#365
February 17th, 2009 19:04
KING JOHNS CASTLE, off the track since finishing second in last year’s John Smith’s Grand National, will make his reappearance over hurdles either at Navan on February 28 or at Naas on March 8.
Arthur Moore, trainer of the JP McManus-owned ten-year-old, said: ” We’re looking at starting King Johns Castle back in either a rated hurdle at Navan or in the same handicap hurdle at Naas which he won last year before going on to finish second in the National.”
BLACK APALACHI, winner of the Becher Chase in November, will warm up forAintree in the Grade 2 At The Races Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse on Saturday.
The ten-year-old is being aimed at the the John Smith’s Grand National after thriving in testing conditions when winning the Becher Chase by 74 lengths. However, he has only been seen once since, running over hurdles.
Trainer Dessie Hughes said: “Black Apalachi is in good form and Saturday’s race fits in nicely with Aintree coming up. The ground is very important for him and we’re hoping for a wet spring.”
Southern Vic, Snowy Morning, Chelsea Harbour, who finished a remote third behind Neptune Collonges in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown, and One Cool Cookie are the other Grand National entries among the nine possibles for Saturday’s 3m 1f contest.
#366
February 17th, 2009 19:22
I agree, most value gone but feel that if Hot Weld runs well tomorrow, his price may tumble – 46-1 on betfair available now – worth a cover bet at least – doubt is whether he will get in of course
#367
February 17th, 2009 20:38
Hi Guys any number crunching thoughts on Hot Weld’s TS – any probs?
#368
February 17th, 2009 20:59
Hi everyone,
Just found this site,Really interesting,I aint really into trends but great reading everynight when i get in from work,
In tha past few years ive backed (ante post)bobbyjo 33/1
numbersixvalverde 40/1 comply or die 98/1 on betfair,This year i fancy and have backed butlers cabin20/1 , rambling minster 40/1 andsouthern vic 40/1 and battlecry 50s.hopefully get a place with one to get a decent ammount back at least,regards
#369
February 17th, 2009 21:07
hi guys on hot weld …… just been digging and found this from the times dated 21st jan …….. ferdy murphy :
“We’re desperate to get a run into Hot Weld and we want to go for the Sky Bet Chase. If they get a deluge at Doncaster, we’ll think again – he has the option of the William Hill Chase at Cheltenham but it’s Aintree that matters and he’s a horse you can get right for one race.”
#370
February 17th, 2009 21:59
i still think 33s on Hot Weld is madness
The only problem with him is we havent seen him in a long lay off. A nice run tomorrow and a solid effort at Cheltenham, he could easily be 16/1 or shorter on the day.
If he makes the line up in shape, carrying 10st on his back…he should have a great chance
#371
February 17th, 2009 22:09
RE: STRIKE RATE
“miinnehoma Says:
February 16th, 2009 at 11:53 pm
To Crisp 73,
Spot on – very clever and kind of you to mention that little stat gem from last year. It certainly put the tin hat on D’Argent for me,with only 39% strike rate but unlike RM, he had other faults.
In fact systemsman said he was going to put that stat in his bag of tricks for this year.But I think he must have forgot, otherwise he would not have been touting the 3 donkeys some time ago. ie Black Apalachi, Hear the Echo and Chelsea Harbour.
Re – RM
Your right,RM has a 40% strike rate – this would be a new low but on the bright side only 2% below the lowest but 14/18 did have 50%+. Some stats will change slightly each year, so if RM wins,42% becomes 40%. No big deal if everything else is ok.”
Reply:
Sorry everyone the stike rate is in my GN Black Book (I cant remember who first posted this but it was very good info)but what with so many other factors/trends I have forgot to use it. Must now do more homework and find out the stike rate (1/2 or 3rd in Chases) of all the leading runners.
Anyone done this already – if so can you please, please post it.
I make Rambling Minster 7/15 runs 46.6 % strike rate so he qualifies (but not under the better 50% 15/17 trend (last years trend, I have not updated for the GN 2008 yet)
#372
February 17th, 2009 22:12
Looking through Rambo’s form (yes i know we are not talking about this one anymore) but I’m still not convinced. Pulled up in Scottish National 2007 and was never travelling well, has won over 4m on soft ground carrying 11st 7 but he had very little opposition. As i said before, i think the value has gone on this one, sure to start shorter on the day i suppose tho, all good for traders.
Comply or Die had a similar poor run in the Scottish National on his record. Dont forget the Scottish National is always at the end of the season, and that year COD had had a tough year….maybe the same could be said of Rambling Minster. You can’t not be impressed by his run on Saturday, I think anyway.
#373
February 17th, 2009 22:16
Rambling Minster is 6/15 in the strike rate department Systemsman, which is 40%. Still looks good though and he is at the top of the tree stats wise at the moment for me.
#374
February 17th, 2009 23:46
Some very interesting posts although ‘death by stats’ springs to mind
I’ve never really been one for stats, instead going with current and past form and instinct..would welcome any comments on the following horses some of whom I like:
Butler’s Cabin – don’t think I’ll be backing this one but it did seem to be going well until it fell last year..and for those wanting to see a good run, am i right in thinking that the form leading up to last year’s National wasn’t that great?
Comply or Die – backed it last year as it jumped two out in the Eider and a certain bookies was caught sleeping as they had left the book up
just thought well he’ll stay and he’s classy..any idea why the form is poor? am I wrong to feel that he might just remember last year’s race and produce another big effort?
King John’s Castle – I saw someone say he may lack the necessary ‘class’..one of the reasons I backed him last year was because i thought he had a bit of class..and the way he cruised up to the pack of four with two to go last year was impressive..any thoughts?
Cloudy Lane – have backed it this year..Does he stay? How much more weight will he have this year? one year older, one year stronger, one year wiser?
Reveillez – have a feeling about this one..has injury problems but i think it’s a classy animal who might just show that class at Aintree
also like Hot Weld, Chelsea Harbour and Roll Along
How far down the list do you think it will be to get a run?
OT – but does anyone know where Mister Top Notch may run next?
Thanks.
#375
February 17th, 2009 23:51
I think 1, 2, 3 strike rates are important (although a ball ache to work out). They are certainly fascinating. However, I think they can become distorted by horses racing in poor quality races, especially early in their careers.
For example, Red Marauder (2001 winner) notched up wins in his first five chase runs, three of which were in very poor C3 or C4 races worth just a few grand each. The prizes hardly covered the petrol money and one was a three-runner contest so he would have struggled to be out of the frame!
I would be interested to see strike rates for C2 and C1 races only of say eight runners or more. (I know, even more of a ball ache!!)
Also, there is a danger that some very good performances are lost in a statistical fog, such as RM’s 4 length defeat to Kilbeggan Blade at Sandown in December when he finished 5th out of 16 runners.
It was an impressive run and, with hindsight, the springboard for something special. His eye-catching fourth just a few lengths behind Cloudy Lane and COD in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock in December 2007 would also be seen as a black mark against him.
Having said all that….I do think such stats have merit, provided they are qualified and, like many others on this site, I’m really grateful to those who have the patience, persistence and expertise to share them with us.
#376
February 18th, 2009 01:52
Have to agree with Russell – treat Hot Weld with caution – this horse won a Scottish National and whatever the Gold Cup is called that Tommo gets excited about every year but means very little (he beat nothing in a worthless race) – both on ground that suited – Grand National is now typically run with a tiny bit of give because it is so valuable – no Good to Firm in April in Liverpool unless global warming goes bananas because stakes are too high
#377
February 18th, 2009 02:11
Going last ten years 99-08 – G, G, Hvy ,G ,G ,G ,GS ,GS ,G ,G
#378
February 18th, 2009 06:01
I’ve been flicking through a few of last years OLBG GN posts and some things are worthy of note.
1)Kilbeggan Blade and Parsons Legacy were withdrawn from the National on 18th March 2008 along with 8 others (didn’t know KB was entered last year – pu in Scotish National instead). I’d be wary about backing either of those before April.
2) Here’s some of the winners requirements from last years blog (Systemsman actually)
Pre race RPR of at last 144 10/10
……..
9/10 trends
Recorded a Topspeed figure of at least 128 9/10
Three to five outings since start of August 9/10
OR rating of 136 to 147 9/10 {odd one out was OR 128
Can somebody apply these figures, especially TS & OR to some of the fringe horse like Kilbeggan (TS 124 you say), Himalayan Trail, Hot Weld & Southern Vic and tell us which are no-hopers? (granted most may improve with a run before race day but useful nonetheless).
3) This year there are 3 weeks between Cheltenham & GN. Silver Birch win came with a 32 day break. As we are trying to find the winner I think it’s fair to discount all those running at the Festival!?
4) We seem to be extending trends this year but the 11st rule should be set in stone! Hedgehunter has been the most outstanding GN horse of recent time and his win off 11-1 came as no great suprise. Until the stats consistently prove otherwise, we should strike through anything that will carry over 11st (I don’t see another Hedgehunter running this year).
Weight rises (or not) and the actual top 40 are major unknowns so I guess they’ll be little conviction on a top 3 until end March (but a lot of discussion!).
#379
February 18th, 2009 07:00
By way of clarification on 4) above, I know the 11st rule is nothing new. There seems to be a consensus this year that the contest may go to a classy type around 11 stone or more, but the stats say that is unlikely to happen. Anything from State of Play or above should be put to one side on a B list to be reviewed in the unlikely event that weights don’t rise by 5/6 lbs.
#380
February 18th, 2009 09:18
ThaiMark, I think you can’t say the 11′1 rule is set in stone this year as the rules of the race have changed with top weight going from 11′12 to 11′10 so naturally we should review this and take it into account and possibly give a bit more account to horses near the mark. Having said that I think Butler’s is the highest in the weights that I’ve backed so definitely concentrating a the trends OR region in my case.
Re; Rambling’s run on Saturday (haven’t mentioned it yet) I notice a lot of people were quick to draw comparison to CoD. But no one compared it to Cloudy Lane (probably people not so keen to make that comparison), Cloudy’s form before last year 5111, Ramblings current form 511… One more win between now and Aintree and it’d be identical! Is this horse going to be over the top come the 4th?
#381
February 18th, 2009 09:20
War Of Attrition is a better horse than Hedgehunter in my opinion – granted he might not stay (Strong Gale) and his proposed run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup might take it out of him
But if the GN really is his target and he does stay I think he would take all the beating off 11′1
#382
February 18th, 2009 09:27
Brody – I think Rambo is straight to GN – no more prep runs
#383
February 18th, 2009 10:23
Pablo- I think you’re spot on with the list of important races- see some of my earlier post, esp 4th Feb on previous thread.
A top 5 in Hennessey; top3 in Irish,Scots,Welsh Nationals; top 2 in a race over GN fences(but not Nat. itself) covers 23 of the previous 29 winners, 15/18, 11/11. The other six had all won at least three chases at 24f or more with at least one of those wins at 28f or futher. Interestingly of those six they either had either ran in previous GN or had won over 32f.
In the last forty years only Gay Trip ‘70, Specify ‘71, Red Rum ‘73 and Lucius ‘78 didn’t share this profile but all had C1 top3 place.
In fact there is only winner in the last forty years without a C1 top3 place and that is Hallo Dandy – still researching.
#384
February 18th, 2009 10:25
I see as of today Rambling Minsters official figures are
OR 149 RPR 155 TS 144
#385
February 18th, 2009 10:29
With regards the weight of a horse come the day of the race and the whole 11st 1lbs debate. I prefer to use the stat that no horse has won carrying more than 12lbs above bottom weight. This then allows for changes in the bottom weight each year and still keeps the stat strong.
What do others think?
#386
February 18th, 2009 10:36
Puzzled – I know very encouraging stats for Rambo!
Crisp – general view seems to be that the quality of the National field is improving and the prize money on offer certainly is – the two normally go hand in hand
Does this mean that some of the key indicators from say 30 years ago have less relevance due to the changing nature of the race?
Or should we take the view that this is simply a unique race for thorough stayers and sound jumpers – always has been and always will be? And therefore some indicators are just as relevant now as they were 30 or 40 years ago
#387
February 18th, 2009 11:08
Stephen and ThaiMark good comments, but with the possibility of a change of classier top weighted horses entering – note the word ‘change’ – then max top weight or max extra weight in comparison may need tweeking/given allowance.
Again I think our thoughts are helpful to each other and we’ll hopefully get their as a team.
Howver, ThaiMark, although you seem very sure re max top weight, I for one won’t neccessarily be being so rigid in evaluations.
Open mind, to a changing race will catch the birdy (hopefully, lol).
#388
February 18th, 2009 11:32
“Or should we take the view that this is simply a unique race for thorough stayers and sound jumpers – always has been and always will be? And therefore some indicators are just as relevant now as they were 30 or 40 years ago”
I think so. The nature of the Gold Cup has changed in recent years in that if you go back to the 80s and even the 90s the winner was typically a horse that had plenty of stamina and a touch of class. Races like the Hennessy and Welsh National were decent trials. However, most of the recent winners can hardly be described as having bags of stamina and Best Mate, Kicking King, WOA and Kauto Star all had high-class form over 2m/2m4f. It’s class that won them their Gold Cups and not stamina.
Now whilst class might be enough to get a horse home over 3m2f at level weights I still think you need a thorough stayer to win the National and for that reason I think you still need horses with proven stamina. I know some people (including, incredibly, some trainers) still have the view that decent 2m4f horses make good National horses because they can hunt round the first circuit etc. This is an illusory view that has no empirical grounding. Stayers win Nationals not two-and-a-half-milers. I can’t see this changing.
As for the weight carried by horses. There is this debate as to relative vs actual weight but over extreme distances I think actual weight is important. Phil Smith has been cutting the top horses some slack by compressing the weights for a number of years but still not that many horses with more than 11st on their back make the frame. In fact is that the quality of the race increasing but it’s not just increased at the top but through the whole field. The last few years the bottom weight has been well above 10st meaning all horses running from inside the handicap. Gone are the days when you can put a line through a load of horses running from out of the handicap that have little realistic chance. It’s a much more competitive race nowadays and whilst the lowering of the top weight to 11-10 should in theory help the class horses, they still have to give a lot of weight, over 4m4f, to horses at the bottom, and I still think that horses lower in the weights hold an advantage.
#389
February 18th, 2009 11:57
mornin all,
re state of play running intentions.
read trainer comments on racing post news archive on 8th feb 08.trainer says no point going anywhere cheltenham.grand national could be the one.
my short list at mo.
rambling minster.
him/trail.
butlers cabin.
state of play worries me as danger.watched last run,jumped well,but is small horse for big weight
#390
February 18th, 2009 11:58
should read anywhere near cheltenham.re state of play.sorry
#391
February 18th, 2009 12:09
Stayer – agree that weight carried is very important
I had massive bet on What’s Up Boys in 2002 and he got beat in last 100 yards carrying 11′6
Anyone’s guess as to what the threshold is but I would say that anything over 11′5 should have a line through it
But 11′1 clearly has been achieved so who’s to say that 11′2 or 11′3 is not possible?
As for small horses carrying weight – State of Play caried 11′4 to win Hennessy in Soft ground as a 6 year old – weight will not be the reason if he fails in my opinion
#392
February 18th, 2009 12:12
I shall be putting a line through anything that on the day is carrying 12lbs+ above the bottom weight.
#393
February 18th, 2009 12:12
sorry should say weight carried will not be the reason
clearly something might be well in on the handicap and beat him – Rambo?
#394
February 18th, 2009 12:17
fair comment pablo,re s.o.p.weight carrying.thanx.
food for thought.
#395
February 18th, 2009 12:25
“But 11′1 clearly has been achieved so who’s to say that 11′2 or 11′3 is not possible?”
Pablo,
Everything’s possible but is it that probable. Red Rum carted 12-00 around and others since have carried 11st or more. Hedgehunter was the last to do it and hindsight tells us that the horse was still on the upgrade and was well handicapped – he had the class to finish 2nd in the Gold Cup the next season.
But what about this year? It looks likely that ED and MDB will not run, which will leave the weights to rise 5lbs and Snoopy Loopy to shoulder 11-10. That would mean that all the horses down to L’Antartique will carry 11st or more. Now if you put a line through the novices, 6yos, 7yos and blatant non-stayers you’re left with a group of horses that look pretty exposed and/or badly treated by the handicapper. The only ones I would hesitate to put a line through would be WOA, My Will, Comply Or Die, Miko De Beauchene and Black Apalachi. Those horses would have some sort of chance though Black Apalachi and Miko both need plenty of juice in the ground. Aside from those I can’t see the winner coming from the 11st + brigade this year.
#396
February 18th, 2009 12:31
Stayer – I also agree about some trainers thinking they can turn 2m 4f horses into GN winners – this is clearly to our advantage as punters – the more the merrier really
Having said that it will be fascinating to see how WOA gets on should he turn up – I suspect that he will not stay the trip (Strong Gale influence) but for me he’s the class act in the race at the weights if he does – small wager at 50/1 seems a reasonable punt (when did you ever get 50/1 on a Gold Cup winner?)
#397
February 18th, 2009 12:39
“Having said that it will be fascinating to see how WOA gets on should he turn up”
Yes, as I said in my previous post he would be one horse in the 11st+ group that I couldn’t dismiss entirely, especially if the ground was genuinely good on the big day. But as I also said further up, I think his class got him home over 3m2f but class won’t be enough to get him to see out 4m4f. I think i’m letting my heart rule me here as I had a big punt (by my standards) on him when he won his Gold Cup. I must be more objective.
#398
February 18th, 2009 12:41
By the way – does anyone have any news on Exotic Dancer?
O’Neill on weights day – “Exotic Dancer is a decent horse and you’d have to really expect top weight. He normally jumps well and, if he were to settle for the first mile, he’d have a decent chance. The plan is to go straight for the Gold Cup, win that and then win the National!”
Maybe a bit tongue-in-cheek but didn’t rule it out – weights might not go up
#399
February 18th, 2009 12:43
Stayer – yeah I backed WOA for Gold Cup too – sentimental bets normally losing bets…
#400
February 18th, 2009 12:56
“- sentimental bets normally losing bets…”
Indeed Pablo. Sentimental betting puts you on a fast-track to the poor-house!
As for ED. If Denman were running I think connections would let him take his chance but as Denman isn’t, and AP will be claimed to ride one of the J P McManus horses, I reckon he will bypass the race.
#401
February 18th, 2009 13:52
Anyone have any views on in-running bettng for the big race? I am sure that Black Apalachi will lead from the off and if completing the first circuit in tact is likely to trade short in running. This will probably depend on the ground of course – needs plenty of juice – with our climate at present its anyones guess what the going will be on the day but you can pretty much be sure that it will be at least on the soft side of good – Aintree do water regularly now for safety reasons primarily. Bit worried about GC and HW not getting in – went down the list again and was struggling to pick out 26 runners that probably won’t run – any thoughts on this guys?
#402
February 18th, 2009 13:59
I think you can tell from the end of Jonjo’s quote that he is clearly on the wind up and taking the interview that seriously.
#403
February 18th, 2009 14:02
RE: green st. Says:
February 18th, 2009 at 11:57 am
mornin all,
re state of play running intentions.
read trainer comments on racing post news archive on 8th feb 08.trainer says no point going anywhere cheltenham.grand national could be the one.
Hi Green St, but your post doesn’t make clear if it’s Chelt or GN he’s going to/could be the one? Please clarify thanks.
Can u also post up link to artice. Ta much
#404
February 18th, 2009 14:15
Hi Showlad just to clarify – I think what Evan Williams said was “there’s no point going anywhere near cheltenham” in reference to sops targets being either the grand nat , the betfred or the scottish nat . i reckon theres next to no chance he’ll appear at chelts and hes likely to plump for one of the three above . whether he has a prep run before these 3 i guess that remains to be seen.hope this helps
#405
February 18th, 2009 14:19
I think it would be foolish to rule out runners who have run at Cheltenham purely for the reason is it 3 weeks before this year. You could run on the Tuesday and therefore have had your last run 25 days before. Horses who have won having had a ran within the last 25 days are;
2003 Montys Pass
2002 Bindaree
2000 Papillon
1999 Bobbyjo
1997 Lord Gyllene
1996 Rough Quest
1994 Miinnehoma
1991 Seagram
1990 Mr Frisk
Rule them out at your peril I think!
Perhaps more concerning for me would be Silver Birhc’s build up. Is it sufficient to run him in two point-to-point races and then once over hurdles? What do people think? Personally I wont be rushing to back him without a chase run, as he is a horse who has had his fair share of problems. I may decide to have a small saver on him nearer the time, as he is certainly capable of winning, but I wont be rushing to do it until he has come through his next 2 runs in good shape.
I am also concerned by the number of GN winners in recent years who have never won again over fences. Winning the GN can take so much out of horse, regardless of what looks a favourable weight, I wonder if Silver Birch can win the big one again…
#406
February 18th, 2009 14:38
I don’t think the National is a stayers versus class issue. Both are vital when choosing from a varied shortlist. You need to find the classiest horse that appears as thought it will stay, which has had the right preparation on the lowest weight! There probably isn’t a great deal of relevance in looking at the Nationals as far back as the 1970’s to choose this year’s winner – though we all seem to when we want to, to rule out 7yr olds, 13 yr olds etc – other than looking for trends that have lasted a generation which is what interested me.(C1 top 3 place for example) And if anything those observations I made on the winner’s profiles are getting stronger. 23/29, 15/18, 11/11.
As I said in earlier posts whatever method you use to find a shortlist I personally think you should weight it with much more relevance on what has happened since, and including, 1990 after fences were modified after ‘89 National.
The handicapper has been compressing the weights since 2000 but still nothing has carried a weight to victory anything like pre 1990. Grittar, Aldaniti, Corbiere, Maori Venture, Rhyme N Reason all carried weights of 10-13 or more in the 1980’s alone- OK so there were plenty of low quality horses in some of those races and plenty were racing out of the handicap- but only Hedgehunter has carried 10-13 or more since 1990 and the year he did so 10st 5lbs was bottom weight. But of course it’s wise to look at slight deviations in what has gone before.
#407
February 18th, 2009 14:40
Thanks Silver Birch. Greens St’s quote seems to be re the Grand National not any 3 of them. Do u know if it was the GN specific or any 3 that he was ref to (v important)?
Ta much in advance.
#408
February 18th, 2009 14:48
In my last post I meant that the profile getting stronger is the top5 Hennessey etc. Including that with the 3chase wins at 24f or more with one win at 28f or more covers the past 29 winners, 36/40.