Grand National Tips 2009
Posted on February 12th, 2009 in Grand National 2009
Hi everyone,
Further to my post on the Grand National Ante Post thread I would be grateful if you all would start adding your Grand National Tips for 2009 to this thread now instead.
The other thread is just becoming too big! When it reaches that size it become difficult to manage and could be offputting for new readers so seeing as we have just had the issue of the weights, it seems a good time to start a fresh thread.
If all our regular contributors would be so kind as to give an overview of their current selections and the reasoning behind why they have made those selections that would be ideal. Also, a few general tips for the novice Grand National punter would also be very useful.
Thanks again for all your great input.
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This post has 1495 comments
#1
February 12th, 2009 12:32
I’ll start!
For those of you who dont know about the importance of stats in the Grand National;
To me the NUMBER 1 stat has to be;
1- AGE
No horse aged 6,7,1 or 14 has even PLACED in the GN since 1969. No horse any of these ages have won since 1940.
This makes age the most important stat in my book. It makes sense as you need to have experience to get round
such a tough test, and you need to be at your peak to mix with the best staying chasers around.
2- WEIGHT
If you look at those horses who place in the race, each year they tend to be weighted below 11 stone.
Since Corbiere in 1983, only Hedgehunter has won carrying more than 11 stone.
In the last 10 years, out of 72 RUNNERS carrying MORE than 11 stone, only 25 horses have FINISHED, and
only 7 horses have PLACED in the first 4. A 10% strike rate just for a place is not very good I think!
This relevance of this is obviously because it is hard to give weight to the rest of the field over such
4 and a half miles.
3- A WIN OVER 3 MILES OR MORE
This stat is true since 1970, and makes sense for obvious reasons! Any horse with insufficient stamina cannot
win the Grand National. I have put this one a bit lower due to KJC coming close last year, and of course the fact
you could feasibly have a horse who has never won over 3 miles but has finished 2nd over, say, 4 miles who by doing
so has proved he has the stamina.
4- RPR
Not less than 145 to be safe, although if you want to ignore Red Maurader’s victory as a fluke, then you can say not less than 148.
This won’t rule out many horses each year though I find.
5- DAYS SINCE LAST RUN
This one needs to be treated with a bit of caution as the goalposts are always changing. Before Hedgehunter, people said
the last run of a GN winner had to be within 45 days. Now this has become 48 days because of Hedgehunter. Personally I would
say a horse needs to have had his last run within a period of 14-49 days (or 2 -7 weeks) before the national. Do not rule out
a horse with a run 13 or 50,51,52 ish days before though purely on this basis.
Just doing the above 5 rules will leave you with about 10-14 horses, and then you can narrow down from there. It will have found you the winner in each of the last 20 years and quite possibly beyond!
Hope this helps!
#2
February 12th, 2009 12:34
I thought that it might be useful to look back over the last ten winners…
Grouped by profile (based on Racing Post Ratings – RPR):
Well-backed, progressive Irish National winners – Bobbyjo, Numbersixvalverde
Well-backed progressive Irish provincial National winner – Monty’s Pass*
Well-backed Irish invader with solid recent form – Hedgehunter*
Well-backed Irish invader with solid past form – Papillon
Previously injured horses with at or near career-best RPR comeback performances in run up to the race – Red Marauder*, Silver Birch* and Comply Or Die
Aintree specialists / McCain factor – Amberleigh House*
Consistent stayer with a series of 144 RPR runs – Bindaree
* = previous Aintree experience
#3
February 12th, 2009 12:39
Bindaree did have previous Aintree experience, sorry
#4
February 12th, 2009 12:55
Excellent start Daniel. Just one small point I have always worked on a RPR minimum of 144 (not 145) am I wrong? But as you say its normely a bit higher.
#5
February 12th, 2009 13:01
The emerging trend over the last ten years has been the six Irish winners, but interestingly this year many Irish trainers have complained that the handicapper has treated them harshly
Of the Irish winners all except Papillon had shown some form (RPR 144+)in the run up to the race (Southern Vic?)
Three of the last ten winners had spent a year or more out with injury but came back as strong as ever – possibly refreshed from a break (Fleet Street? very tenuous but I took the 300s on Betfair)
The two that stand alone are:
Amberleigh House who reserved his best for Aintree and only had to repeat his performance in that season’s Becher Chase (RPR 154) to win in 2004 (although Clan Royal might have been unlucky)
Bindaree who was consistent if unspectacular (Character Building?)
#6
February 12th, 2009 13:15
Please see the previous entries in the Ante Post thread for previous reports.
Thank you Stephen and Brody. To clarify my current list A is the list of 9&10 year olds not already eliminated, giving them a slight edge over 8,9 and 12 year olds who are in List B. Current lists are as follows:
LIST A
EXOTIC DANCER (FR) 9-11-10
CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02
WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-01
CHELSEAHARBOUR(IRE) 9-11-00
SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-00
CANE BRAKE (IRE) 10-10-13
ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13
COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12
STAN (NZ) 10-10-12
BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-10-11
PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-10-11
BALLYFITZ 9-10-10
KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 10-10-10
MIKO DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 9-10-10
MY WILL (FR) 9-10-10
L’ANTARTIQUE (FR) 9-10-09
STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08
MON MOME (FR) 9-10-06
BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05
HOBBSHILL 10-10-05
OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 9-10-05
REVEILLEZ 10-10-04
ENDLESS POWER (IRE) 9-10-03
GOLDEN FLIGHT(FR) 10-10-03
L’AMI (FR) 10-10-03
SIMON 10-10-03
CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-02
FLEET STREET 10-10-02
MUSICA BELLA (FR) 9-10-02
DARKNESS 10-10-01
SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00
HOT WELD 10-9-13
KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13
BROOKLYNBROWNIE (IRE) 10-9-12
CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-9-12
CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 10-9-12
HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12
TUMBLING DICE (IRE) 10-9-12
ARTEEA (IRE) 10-9-11
IDLE TALK (IRE) 10-9-11
ICE TEA (IRE) 9-9-10
MALJIMAR (IRE) 9-9-10
COMPANERO (IRE) 9-9-09
MATTOCK RANGER (IRE) 9-9-09
BAGAN (FR) 10-9-08
DIX VILLEZ (FR) 10-9-08
PATSY HALL (IRE) 9-9-08
LIST B
MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 8-11-08
SNOOPY LOOPY (IRE) 11-11-05
STAR DE MOHAISON (FR) 8-11-05
NOTRE PERE (FR) 8-11-04
NOZIC (FR) 8-11-03
AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (IRE) 11-11-01
IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 8-11-00
KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-10-13
OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12
HEAR THE ECHO (IRE) 8-10-11
ONE COOL COOKIE (IRE) 8-10-11
SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-06
PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-04
ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 8-10-03
FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-03
BATTLECRY 8-10-02
IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-01
RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01
SILVERBURN (IRE) 8-10-01
TRABOLGAN (IRE) 11-10-01
ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00
CERIUM (FR) 8-9-11
KELAMI (FR) 11-9-11
IRON MAN (FR) 8-9-09
NICHE MARKET (IRE) 8-9-09
BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 8-9-08
BIBLE LORD (IRE) 8-9-08
FLINTOFF (USA) 8-9-08
HOMER WELLS (IRE) 11-9-07
IN THE LOOP(IRE) 11-9-07
LIST Z
CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-01
OEDIPE (FR) 7-10-00
ZABENZ (NZ) 12-9-11
The next stage is based on the weights, which is complicated by guessing whether or not Exotic Dancer or Madison Du Berlais choose to line up. They will both go for the Gold Cup and general feeling is that this will be a race too much. Top weight could even fall to Cloudy Lane, currently on 11-2, which would raise all horses weights by 8 pounds. Horses carrying 11-3 or over don’t win nationals in modern times (1985 was the last time this occurred). So regardless of who is top weight we can immediately rule out:
EXOTIC DANCER (FR) 9-11-10
MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 8-11-08
SNOOPY LOOPY (IRE) 11-11-05
STAR DE MOHAISON (FR) 8-11-05
NOTRE PERE (FR) 8-11-04
NOZIC (FR) 8-11-03
Chances are both EXOTIC DANCER and MADISON DU BERLAIS will pull out after Cheltenham and weights will rise leaving several additional horses over the 11-3 mark. I am not going to totally eliminate those horses but they are falling into my doubtful lists – will track them in my further analysis but with lower ‘grading’ and more scepticism.
If just EXOTIC DANCER fails to show up weights will go up 2 pounds putting the following horses on unwinnable marks:
CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02
AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (IRE) 11-11-01
WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-01
The above are joining others in LIST Z.
If both EXOTIC DANCER and MADISON DU BERLAIS don’t run weights are up 5 pounds so the following join the above on 11-3 or more:
CHELSEAHARBOUR(IRE) 9-11-00
IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 8-11-00
SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-00
CANE BRAKE (IRE) 10-10-13
KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-10-13
ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13
COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12
OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12
STAN (NZ) 10-10-12
These poor souls are going into a new list, namely LIST Y.
Further weight analysis will be carried out once our choice of horses has thinned out somewhat.
I have spreadsheets and further comments on the above horses and lists if anyone would like them. E-mail called_andryka@yahoo.co.uk
At present there are 39 horses in LIST A (down 9), 21 in LIST B (down 9), 9 in LIST Y and 6 in LIST Z, 45 horses have been eliminated (a further six).
Later to today I will be removing those horses that won’t make the distance (a further fifteen!). Please let me know if the above doesn’t make sense.
#7
February 12th, 2009 13:15
Daniel Edwards RE Weight.
If my maths is right then horses under 11 stone have a 10% strike rate at places as well.
Don’t get me wrong i stick to the ‘No horse over 11-03′ rule but just thought you could of worded that bit better for new comers to the site as the reasoning you have given is mis-leading.
i.e you say 72 horses have carried over 11 stone in last ten year and only 7 have placed given a 10% strike rate.
That would mean 328 horses (400-72) have carried under 11 stone and got 33 (40-7) placings which is a strike rate of 10%.
#8
February 12th, 2009 13:24
Just shows, statistics are useless!!
Its not quite as simple, because some years have seen less than 40 runners, but I agree with your point.
I wouldnt back them for a win, and would be weary of doing so for a place, considering that in theory those higher up are the better horses and perhaps should be placing a bit more often.
#9
February 12th, 2009 13:25
Good work everybody
Keep it going Rascal, I am intrigued as to how your list is going to pan out.
#10
February 12th, 2009 13:29
Its actually horses OVER 11 stone 1 that have 7/72 in the last 10 years for a place. I will provide the stats for the last 20 years tomorrow.
Re: RPR, Red Maurader had 145 I believe Systemsman, I think. Next worst was Bindaree on 148. To be honest you can usually spot a horse with a low RPR from a quick glance at the formbook anyway.
#11
February 12th, 2009 13:32
My tips are based purely on gut instinct. I’ve never been too keen on stats as they are sitting there waiting to be proved wrong, and my tips often completely contradict these figures anyway. My gut is screaming Cane Brake to me. After watching this finish fast and late over 3 and a half miles last year it just had to be pencilled in for the Grand National and nothing I have seen since suggests otherwise. I have been nibbling at this from silly prices and will continue to do so. The other one I really like even though all the stats people will laugh at me is Gwanako, only a six year old ( too young ), and very inexperienced. Forgive his refusal at the Chair in Novemeber and he could go very close, again at silly prices. He has already won around the big fences at Aintree and just strikes me as a real National type.
#12
February 12th, 2009 13:40
Just looked at the decs for the big chase at Haydock on Saturday…
Character Building has AP booked to ride and the cheekpieces are on. They look to be gearing up for a big run
#13
February 12th, 2009 13:41
….Winners of that race have a shocking record in the GN though and im struggling to find a previous winner who’s even placed in it.
#14
February 12th, 2009 13:44
Big Fella Thanks- admirably summed up on previous thread by Systems. I didn’t even bother purchasing the apparently Holy Grail/ Racing Post Grand National weights edition as soon as I read that apparently serious journalists were quoting an inexperienced 7yr old as a good each way bet at 25/1. I would never dream of telling anybody what to do with their money but instead of putting it on Big Fella Thanks but there are some fantastic charities out there….
Black Secret, second in 1971 was the last 7yr old to get placed. Already a winner over fences, BS raced in the Kim Muir chase at Cheltenham as a 6yr old and won five chases in 70/71 season.
Plenty of 7yr olds have ran since, Ceol Na Mara was 5th in 76, had won four chases, Senator Maclacury was 5th in ’81, had already won a Punchestown GN trial over 28f(may have been even further) Nadover’s 7th last yr was the best performance since ’81. While I would hesitate to never to say never if a young horse is placed in the GN in the future it will be a very experienced young horse.
So, fancies at the moment? Cornish Sett, Parsons Legacy and Rambling Minster tick nearly all the boxes for me at the moment. Waiting to see on a few others like everyone else.
While I agree with Systems up to a point about horses in the betting
and SP’s on winners or on average lower than they used to be I’m not too worried about big prices at the moment. When you look at the top of the betting at the moment you could arguably rule out HTE, My Will, Snowy, Comply, Apalachi,Notre,Cloudy, Madison on weight, BFT and Cant Buy on age, and put big question marks by Character and Vic.
#15
February 12th, 2009 13:46
IM not worried about price either. We’ve had a 40/1 winner and a 33/1 winner in recent history.
#16
February 12th, 2009 13:53
Daniel Edwards Says:
February 12th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
Its actually horses OVER 11 stone 1 that have 7/72 in the last 10 years for a place. I will provide the stats for the last 20 years tomorrow.
The important stat for me RE weight is that no horse since corbiere in 1983 has won carrying more than 11-03 (corbiere had 11-04) i think when you start bringing percentages of placings into it then all it does is muddy the clear waters especially for new visitors to the site.
Apart from that great summary of how to narrow down the field and me choosing 11-03 instead of your 11-01 is just my preference as i like to give the stats a margin for error so to speak
#17
February 12th, 2009 13:59
A fair point Daniel about the race on Saturday. But wasn’t the same true of Eider winners last year and then look what happened
#18
February 12th, 2009 13:59
Ive just realised I wasnt actually clear on the weight point in my summary. I would allow up to 11_02, as I always like to give a slight margin, although I would much still prefer a horse below 11 stone.
#19
February 12th, 2009 14:03
Stephen Says:
February 12th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
A fair point Daniel about the race on Saturday. But wasn’t the same true of Eider winners last year and then look what happened
Very true!!!
#20
February 12th, 2009 14:47
The Grand National is a long-old haul and the class two-and-a-half milers do not fair well. Since 1970 all Grand National winners have previously won over 3 miles or further. Remember, we’re looking for the winner here and nice advance bet to get the best odds. So at this stage we can safely rule out:
IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 8-11-00
STAN (NZ) 10-10-12
ONE COOL COOKIE (IRE) 8-10-11
ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 8-10-03
SILVERBURN (IRE) 8-10-01
CERIUM (FR) 8-9-11
KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 10-10-10
L’ANTARTIQUE (FR) 9-10-09
HOBBSHILL 10-10-05
ENDLESS POWER (IRE) 9-10-03
MUSICA BELLA (FR) 9-10-02
CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 10-9-12
TUMBLING DICE (IRE) 10-9-12
ARTEEA (IRE) 10-9-11
MALJIMAR (IRE) 9-9-10
MATTOCK RANGER (IRE) 9-9-09
BAGAN (FR) 10-9-08
PATSY HALL (IRE) 9-9-08
IRON MAN (FR) 8-9-09
BIBLE LORD (IRE) 8-9-08
FLINTOFF (USA) 8-9-08
HOMER WELLS (IRE) 11-9-07
That’s right – KING JOHN’S CASTLE gets the boot at this early stage. Can we be confident of eliminating him at this stage since he ran a good second in last year’s race and many will be backing him in the weeks to come? I say this – we haven’t seen King John’s Castle since that Aintree race, he’s been out through injury. We’ll see how he fairs at Leopardstown this weekend (if it goes ahead). Otherwise it’s one prep run in Ireland for a horse yet to win in England. He’s carrying 10-10 at the moment, a pound less than last year but should we lose a few horses at the top of the weights he will be sneaking into dangerous territory. On last years run I’m not going to mock anyone backing KING JOHN’S CASTLE each-way but I want the winner and this is not it! KJC is eliminated.
Please note that I only have season stats for COMPANERO, MATTOCK RANGER, BAGAN, DIX VILLEZ, PATSY HALL, IRON MAN, NICHE MARKET, BEAT THE BOYS, BIBLE LORD, FLINTOFF, HOMER WELLS and IN THE LOOP. I am not too concerned as all are unlikely to run but if anyone can point me in the right direction for their career stats I would be grateful.
Our current lists as we head into the scoring stages of my analysis are.
LIST A (27 horses, down 12)
BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-10-11
PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-10-11
BALLYFITZ 9-10-10
MIKO DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 9-10-10
MY WILL (FR) 9-10-10
STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08
MON MOME (FR) 9-10-06
BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05
OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 9-10-05
REVEILLEZ 10-10-04
GOLDEN FLIGHT(FR) 10-10-03
L’AMI (FR) 10-10-03
SIMON 10-10-03
CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-02
FLEET STREET 10-10-02
DARKNESS 10-10-01
SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00
HOT WELD 10-9-13
KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13
BROOKLYNBROWNIE (IRE) 10-9-12
CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-9-12
HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12
IDLE TALK (IRE) 10-9-11
ICE TEA (IRE) 9-9-10
COMPANERO (IRE) 9-9-09
DIX VILLEZ (FR) 10-9-08
LIST B (13 horses, down
HEAR THE ECHO (IRE) 8-10-11
SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-06
PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-04
FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-03
BATTLECRY 8-10-02
IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-01
RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01
TRABOLGAN (IRE) 11-10-01
ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00
KELAMI (FR) 11-9-11
NICHE MARKET (IRE) 8-9-09
BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 8-9-08
IN THE LOOP(IRE) 11-9-07
LIST Y (7 horses, down 2)
CHELSEAHARBOUR(IRE) 9-11-00
SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-00
CANE BRAKE (IRE) 10-10-13
KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-10-13
ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13
COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12
OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12
LIST Z (6 horses, unchanged)
CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-01
OEDIPE (FR) 7-10-00
ZABENZ (NZ) 12-9-11
CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02
AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (IRE) 11-11-01
WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-01
We have eliminated 67 horses (a further 22 at this stage). That’s over half the field out based on simple age, weight and distance ‘givens’. In the next stages the true contenders will begin to emerge.
#21
February 12th, 2009 15:12
SportyGirl – I agree with the gut instinct bit and have also backed Cane Brake (even after finding that it was carrying 10’13 rather than the 10’1 error in my spreadsheet – would have been a much larger bet if that had been true).
If my gut instinct also matches my key trends then I’ll have more on nearer the time (although for some Cane Brake falls on the OR stat – which is clearly centred around the top weight who might be rated 159 or 166 – so why the OR range before we know what the top weight is? Also for OR purposes is Butler’s Cabin 135 or 147 and either way does he get in to the OR range or should he be left out based on OR?)
Like the OR range other trends quoted here are too prescriptive for me – like won a chase over £17,000. Some horses can run better and earn more for running into a place in a better race – good for owners that like the bigger meetings. (In practice most of these are decent horses and the £17k ‘rule’ is not an issue).
#22
February 12th, 2009 15:16
hi all, well i cannot believe this but all my bets are on and all my money done.does anyone agree that this year is very much different in finding the winner.i am not normally in this position but apart from my beloved butlers cabin nothing has stood out to me and all the leading fancies have negartives against them some big ( big fellow thanks)for one.i cannot beleive the super value you can get on horses in my opion with great chances and big enough to go e/w on them all.i normally have 4 backed but this year my money has gone alot further and i have 6.maybe i have had made the wrong choice not holding back and being ready for that usual late fancie that nearly always comes along but i really feel my gut instinct is right. time will tell.
1 butlers cabin 25/1 last year backed
2 cornish sett 100/1 last year backed
3 state of play 40/1
4 rambling minster 40/1
5 him.trail 40/1
6 garde champ. 40/1
have i done right or wrong lads,i am having many mixed thoughts but really beleive the winner is there,and at worst get placings and make a profit.
#23
February 12th, 2009 15:18
Here’s my beginners pointers for aspects of a horses’ profile to consider when trying to identify the winner. Note, this is not my shortlist or a rigorous list of factors which must be applied, but is useful to consider some or more of these factors;
1) Age – rule out 6,7,13+
2) Weight – immediately rule out anything 11’0 and over, consider ruling out 10’6 and over should weights rise. Rule out anything 9’8 and below as unlikely to get in.
3) Rule out anything with what appears to be a 6lb or more penalty based on GN OR vs actual OR.
4) Rule out anything with TS below 128
5) Rule out anything with RPR below 144
6) Rule out anything that hasn’t won at 24f or hasnt placed at 27f
7) Rule out anything that hasn’t won a class 1 or 2 chase worth a minimum £17k.
9) Rule out anything with 2 or more non-Aintree falls
10) Rule out anything with less than 2 runs in the current season
11) Rule out any Novice chasers
Strictly applying these 11 criteria would give a shortlist of 4; 1) Parsons Legacy, 2) Simon, 3) Rambling Minster, 4) Garde Champetre
The winner might not be in that list, but these are certainly the 4 horses that best fit the established trends.
#24
February 12th, 2009 15:28
Cane Brake also fits into the ‘off the track for ages’ profile of Red Marauder, Silver Birch and Comply Or Die
If he builds on his 3rd in the Lexus Chase (148 RPR) next time out he would be right back to near his best
#25
February 12th, 2009 15:29
How important is a higher than normal official rating to you guys? you see in previous years the higher the rating normally meant the more weight given so i think thats why we see OR’s between 135 and 144(because the higher rated horses with more weight could not carry it round) but this year a few horses meet all trends, have a great weight(below 11st) even allowing for a 5-7lb hike in the comming weeks but have an official rating of more than 144…..thoughts please.
#26
February 12th, 2009 15:38
Ok – with this list of now 28 does anyone want to let me know why a certain horse cannot win?
Do we discard any runners who have completed in a grand national but not placed in the first four? (What if we have a more improved horse that has finished out of the top 4 and has improved this season?)
Do we take out any runner that has not won at least 2 chases (trend is 3 but time for one more win)? Is this a strong enough trend? Why cant a horse win with only 2 chase wins?
Is it safe to take out any runners bigger than say 50/1 in the antepost market?
I know some of you (Wacky) will discount all french breds but is this wise?
#27
February 12th, 2009 15:42
We can’t back them all
we want good odds and our best fancies based on our best information and knowledge. It will be a lot easier on the day when we know what top-weight is and who’s done what over the coming months but i say if you have a system that’s worked in the past then stick to it and get your money on now.
#28
February 12th, 2009 15:42
I am with you on all 4 points there Dan.
#29
February 12th, 2009 15:47
Character Building fans – AP McCoy booked for Saturday
I’ve already laid off my GN bet on CB – maybe a tad too soon…
#30
February 12th, 2009 16:05
Character Building is fighting for favouritism in that race at the moment. If he wins I think there will be a lot of money lumped on him.
For one, if he wins the race he will meet all the stats and will be going off on a ver nice low weight. Secondly, he’s a grey, and the ladies love a grey.
#31
February 12th, 2009 16:12
Ryme no reason I like your picks, see below
My five against the field and therefore the ones I would ‘tip’ if I was inclined to do tips:
Character Building 4pts E/W @ 33/1 25/1
Its probably all down to Saturday for this horse a good run and it looks well in at the weights for a place run at least, I’d say he got the best deal out of all from the handicapper. Solid consistent stayer, never fallen ever or UR only PU once. Never finished outside the top 4 in any race and has run well against top opposition, 2nd Butlers over 4miles at Chelts, 3rd behind Denman with Madison in 4th. Really fancied this last year has been campaigned with one target the GN, made sure I was on early this year.
Garde Champetre 4pts E/W @ 40/1
Love this horse I’m firmly on the bandwagon, it’d be great to have a first female jockey in Nina win it too. Got on entry list day, have always liked the horse and as soon as I saw him on the entry list my money went down quick before the price tumbled. Stays longer than the mother-in-law, very sound jumper and as the price tag suggests has a nice touch of class to compete in this company. Given luck in running can’t see him out of the first 4 home. The Silver Birch parallel is also very encouraging. Finally think this was given an absolutely cracking weight to win off.
Southern Vic 4pts E/W @ 33/1
Not a horse I fancied at first but backed on the advice of a few very knowledgable people, also ran my trends through it and like its profile alot ticks most of teh boxes nicely. Irish trained always a bonus too and Ted Walsh is a man who knows how to win this race. Likes soft ground so nicely covers that option if it should come up soft on the day. Again this one has been very well treated by the handicapper.
Butler’s Cabin 8pts win @ 20/1
Loved his run last year before Beechers as he was cruising comfortably. McCoy will be back on board so safe hands there, only negative for me is the huge hike in the weights was hoping he’d run off near bottom weight. Backed to win as he will either bolt up, fall or eat the starter. Yes the horse has previous of being a bit of a nutter. As for the FR thing Best placed French bred horse since 2000:
2000: Mely Moss – 2nd @ 25/1
2001: Blowing Wind – 3rd @ 16/1
2002: Blowing Wind – 3rd @ 8/1
2003: Montifault – 5th @ 33/1
2004: Clan Royal – 2nd @ 10/1
2005: Royal Auclair – 2nd @ 40/1
2006: Clan Royal – 3nd @ 5/1
2007: Liberthine – 5th @ 40/1
2008: Nadover – 7th @ 125/1
Himalayan Trail 4pts EW @ 33/1
Check out his Mids national win, ok he beat average opposition but the little bugger is still motoring on after 4miles and doesn’t put in a single bad jump, if it retains all that ability its gonna run a big race. Also transfering from Sue Smith to Jimmy Mangan is like going from Bristol City to Man Utd can’t have done the horse any harm. Has jumped round the national fences in the beecher in ground he would have hated too.
Hasn’t shown much recent form but Irish trainers like Mangan and Walsh are a bunch of fiddlers with their horses, they don’t show their hand before the big one, you sometimes have to take a leap of faith and don’t get too tied up in recent form, check out his horse Monty’s Pass finished 4 of 4 in a average hurdles race before thrashing everything and I mean thrashing. Mangan’s GN horses don’t always show it on the track they do their work at home. Now check the history, Papillon did nothing the same season before bolting up. Bobbyjo won one hurdles race and FA else before the big one!
Now I could be completely wrong and the horse is shot and will run no sort of race, but at 33/1 I think there is plenty of value there even just for place money.
Also like the following and have added to my list of ones to watch in case they put in a good show or there is a big market move for any of them:
Battlecry – needs a good run soon
Beat the Boys – probably won’t get in
Companero – probably won’t get in
Cornish Sett – unplaced horses don’t come back and win, genreally
Fleet Street – needs a good run soon
Ice Tea – probably won’t get in
Rambling Minster – will he run?
Lets hope we all do as well as last year I reckon about 90% made a good profit last time, personally got the winner and 2 places from 5 runners
Regards
Ian
#32
February 12th, 2009 16:17
crisp 73 Says:
February 12th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
Black Secret, second in 1971 was the last 7yr old to get placed. Already a winner over fences, BS raced in the Kim Muir chase at Cheltenham as a 6yr old and won five chases in 70/71 season.
Ah, well done Crisp, now there is a name for the nostalgia lovers amongst us – Black Secret. I’m sure he might have got one of my first 10p each ways in this great race! Sorry, I got carried away there……
I came on primarily just to comment on this from Dan
Dan Says:
February 12th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
Is it safe to take out any runners bigger than say 50/1 in the antepost market?
Personally I would be keen to remain open minded pricewise as I would have thought that some of the more recent previous winners might have been the subject of quite a sustained gamble (I am guessing here) and will have shortened dramitcally from this sort of time till post time. As I say I can’t be sure but I wouldn’t be certain that horses such as Papillon, Montys Pass and Silver Birch would have been excluded if you had exercised the 50/1 barrier at this stage in their years.
Perhaps someone has that info – I seem to remember reading a bit about this on another thread?
#33
February 12th, 2009 16:34
Thanks Admin.
I am very open minded about a horses price. I think it was systemsman who said no bigger than 40/1 but cant be sure.
There could be a horse trading at 66/1 at the moment and might win a race at the weekend and be given a price of 20/1 or something.
#34
February 12th, 2009 16:37
Brody
Agree that Bobbyjo and Papillon didn’t show much in season of National win, but Monty’s Pass showed progressive chase form
RPR in first column
Bobbyjo (Irish-trained – Carberry)
141 Jan 98 2nd Pierse Chase G2 (3m)
153 Apr 98 1st Irish Grand National (3m 5f)
156 Apr 99 1st Grand National
Didn’t show much in his runs after his Irish National victory (153) but that performance marked him out as a serious contender and was heavily backed down to 10/1
Papillon (Irish-trained – Walsh)
164 Apr 98 2nd Irish Grand National (3m 5f)
150 Feb 99 1st Newlands Chase G2 (2m)
156 Apr 00 1st Grand National
Strong performance behind Bobbyjo in 98 Irish GN, but no show in 99 Irish GN under top weight (reportedly lame). Didn’t show much in his runs at a variety of trips and handicap marked subsequently dropped a few pounds before being heavily backed in the few days before the race from 33/1 to 10/1
Montys Pass (Irish-trained – Mangan)
142 Apr 02 2nd Aintree Topham Chase (2m 6f)
148 Sep 02 1st Kerry National (3m)
162 Apr 03 1st Grand National
Good performance in Topham (142) bettered by Kerry National victory (148) in run up to very impressive National win – well fancied at 16/1
#35
February 12th, 2009 16:41
Admin, i know for a fact Silver Birch was a 100/1 at this time of the year when he won. not sure about the other 2 but would hazard a guess they were bigger than 50/1 at this time of year.
#36
February 12th, 2009 16:44
I did say;
Is it safe to take out any runners bigger than say 50/1 in the antepost market?
So I will take the answer as No!
#37
February 12th, 2009 16:52
do any of you guys know where you can watch recordings of previous races for free?
i normally use rpr web site but all those 20p’s are mounting up i must have looked at 100′s of races over the past 2 weeks…….i just need to see how my final fancies normally run to make a final decision
#38
February 12th, 2009 16:54
I watch last year’s over on bbc sport – don’t know what they’ve got on previous years. you tube for clips.
#39
February 12th, 2009 16:58
Copy and paste this link to watch last years race
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/7332762.stm
#40
February 12th, 2009 17:12
attherace website – free when you register
racingpost only does racing uk at 20p a spin
#41
February 12th, 2009 17:14
At the races is free puzzled, not got every race but will have some of them!
#42
February 12th, 2009 17:16
attheraces i meant
#43
February 12th, 2009 17:26
on the bbc horse racing page trying tying the name of a horse in the search area
for instance i tried “notre pere” and they have a replay of the Welsh National
not sure how far back the replays go (certainly have the grand nationals going back a few years i think)
#44
February 12th, 2009 17:28
thanks guys i will check that out.
would you consider state of plays OR of 150 to high (as it goes against the stats)…..even though he might run off 11st give or take a 1lb either way if the weights were to rise….just a thought
#45
February 12th, 2009 17:37
as was posted on the other thread the OR range has been consistent for trends pickers because the top weight has varied by only 3lb since 2002
should the top weight be above 158 (which it might be) then I can see no reason why the OR range should have to remain the same
in fact the OR is potentially misleading – weight carried is the better trend i would suggest
#46
February 12th, 2009 17:42
should say the OR of the top weight has varied by only 3lb since 02 (155 to 158)
the trends OR range is potentially misleading should the top weight rise appreciably to 166 for example (should Exotic Dancer)
#47
February 12th, 2009 17:43
The Grand National course consists of 30 jumps, some pretty gruelling especially in a tightly packed field, so it makes sense to be on a solid jumper and avoid any temperamental sorts. So in this section I am scoring List A horses with 5 points if they have no career falls or unseated riders, 4 points for one career fall or unseated rider, 3 points for 2 career falls or unseated riders and eliminating those with 3 or more career falls or unseated riders. List B will be categorised in the same way but with one point less. Similarly Lists Y and Z will be listed in the same way but with one point less.
I only have season information for Companero, Dix Villez, Niche Market, Beat The Boys and In The Loop. For the time being these horses have been allocated 4 points in List A and 3 points in List B as none of them have fallen this season. If anyone has their career stats I would be delighted to update my guide.
The results:
LIST A
No Career Falls (5 POINTS)
STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08
GOLDEN FLIGHT(FR) 10-10-03
FLEET STREET 10-10-02
DARKNESS 10-10-01
HOT WELD 10-9-13
KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13
BROOKLYNBROWNIE (IRE) 10-9-12
CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-9-12
HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12
One Career Fall or No Season Falls (4 POINTS)
BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-10-11
MY WILL (FR) 9-10-10
MON MOME (FR) 9-10-06
BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05
REVEILLEZ 10-10-04
L’AMI (FR) 10-10-03
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00
ICE TEA (IRE) 9-9-10
COMPANERO (IRE) 9-9-09
DIX VILLEZ (FR) 10-9-08
Two Career Falls (3 POINTS)
PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-10-11
BALLYFITZ 9-10-10
OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 9-10-05
CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-02
SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01
ELIMINATED HORSES – MIKO DE BEAUCHENE, SIMON, IDLE TALK
LIST B
No Career Falls (4 POINTS)
PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-04
BATTLECRY 8-10-02
RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01
ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00
One Career Fall or No Season Falls (3 POINTS)
SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-06
FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-03
IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-01
TRABOLGAN (IRE) 11-10-01
NICHE MARKET (IRE) 8-9-09
BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 8-9-08
IN THE LOOP(IRE) 11-9-07
Two Career Falls
KELAMI (FR) 11-9-11
ELIMINATED HORSE – HEAR THE ECHO
LISTS Y & Z
No Career Falls (3 POINTS)
(Y) CANE BRAKE (IRE) 10-10-13
(Y) ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13
(Z) CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-01
(Z) OEDIPE (FR) 7-10-00
(Z) ZABENZ (NZ) 12-9-11
(Z) AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (IRE) 11-11-01
(Z) WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-01
One Career Fall (2 POINTS)
(Y) COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12
(Y) OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12
(Z) CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02
Two Career Falls (1 POINT)
SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-00
ELIMINATED – CHELSEA HARBOUR, KNOWHERE
So we have eliminated another 6 horses through this process and some big names have fallen at my fifth hurdle – notably current favourite HEAR THE ECHO who has been badly treated in the handicap to boot and will likely run off over 11 stone. Last 2 races – sixth at Leopardstown over 3 miles ‘no extra before last, kept on same pace’, 5th in Nacan over 2m7f ‘no extra in sixth 2 out, left moderate 5th, kept on one pace. No wins in England. He’s out for me – sorry H T E fans.
I am also happy to lose MIKO DE BEAUCHENE, SIMON and IDLE TALK. MIKO DE BAUCHENE has unseated in his last two outings, SIMON has taken his chances in this race before (might place but remember we’re after the winner), it is tight as to whether IDLE TALK will get into the race – he has apparently been primed for the National but since we won’t know if he’s in until a week before (most likely) it seems silly to back him now.
CHELSEA HARBOUR and KNOWHERE were already in my dubious list and have both tried the National before. They go in the elimination pile which is now up to 73 (47 remain).
More tomorrow and a surprise leading contender early in my analysis – it’s not BUTLER’S CABIN.
#48
February 12th, 2009 17:45
i agree Pablo i also think that the weight will be more important than the OR, i just wanted oppinions before i start tweaking the stats
After all the OR is just the offical rating, if a horse is rated 1-3 points above what we have seen in previous years then maybe this needs to be looked at if it is carrying a weight under 11st, it should not be discounted lightly
This year i think that there are so many “nearly” stats horses that the winner just might be making a new stat for next year.
#49
February 12th, 2009 18:16
Systemsman Says:
February 12th, 2009 at 11:42 am
Unfortunaely for Tom segal I always keep back copies of the weights day Racing Post (an essential for any serious GN study).
Systemsman , Can you tell me the position that Amberleigh House was in the betting in the RACING POST WEIGHTS EDITION
Thanks
#50
February 12th, 2009 18:42
Keep it up Rascal. Loving the work and it makes for an interesting read.
#51
February 12th, 2009 18:56
Brody loved your short list (on the other thread)other than Character Building (unless he wins a big race soon, then he’s in!)- mine is very similar. More and more I like GARDE CHAMPETRE (running at Cheltenahm in X- Country no problem).
#52
February 12th, 2009 18:59
Don’t horses have to have been placed or won in a Hennessy, Irish Nat, Scots Nat, Welsh Nat or a race over the National fences though systemsman?
#53
February 12th, 2009 19:23
‘Im Back’ so watch out you French Lovers!!Thanks KJ for sending posts to my prison cell!!I’ve had time to read up more on the race in the prison library and i think some of you could do with a bit of time inside!!! I want to know why anyone that follows the trends have Butlers cabin,Hear the echo,Black apalachi,Comply or die,Snowy morning,Big fella thanks,Character building,Cloudy lane,Madison Du Berlais,My will,Notre pere,Chelsea harbour,Exotic dancer,Hot weld,Kings john castle,Garde Champetre,WOA,Star de mohaison and abbeybraney on there shortlist?I will be laying as many of these as i can so i can sell the cafe and chippie and buy a casino!!!!I only have 3 horse on my shortlist and they are all still trading at 33/1!! ‘I’LL BE BACK’with them when i feel i’ve filled my boots enough!!Just sent jane down the bookies to get another 50p e-w on them with Bianca’s tips from the Cafe!!!! ian
#54
February 12th, 2009 20:14
I already fancied Garde heavily but for him to get 10-0 was superb,only major worry has to be it’ll prob be a female jockey-Nina Carberry-well capable in the x-country races but don’t know if she’d win the national
#55
February 12th, 2009 21:00
Rambling Minister
A quote from his last race where he carried 11-8 to victory on new years day “The well-backed RAMBLING MINSTER dug deep under maximum pressure on the run-in and landed his first success since winning over4m last season. His proven stamina came to the fore when it mattered most. This was his highest winning mark to date, so it has to rate as a personal-best display. However, he is now an 11yo, and a rise back up in the handicap will likely scupper a follow-up bid, but he will no doubt continue to pay his way”
Does anyone have aview on this?? I think carrying 10stone now makes him a great bet for the National
#56
February 12th, 2009 21:23
I thik somebody (maybe pablo) mentioned it but i think reveillez deserves a mention
10 chase runs
3 chase wins
won over 25f
or 146
non french
won a chase greater than 17k
10-4 to carry
ts up in the 140s
rpr in the 160s
only thing wrong is he has had only 1 run this season
im amazed nobody else has mentioned this horse
if he comes back to form in his next race hes a ridiculous price
#57
February 12th, 2009 22:00
Quick Question-Does anyone know if Parsons Legacy is going to have 2 more runs before the big day?If not i will have to put a big ? against its chances.Last 11 winners have all run at least 4 times and most had run 6 times.Can anyone tell me what Kilbeggan blades best TS figure is please? Ta ian(rambo)Beale
#58
February 12th, 2009 22:01
Johnny – RAMBLING is still holding NUMBER 1 on my list,
as I carefully make and re-make my selections – GO FILL YOUR BOOTS.
Dan – yes absolutley I would disregard the odds factor. ALL other stats are based on facts: age, weight, runs etc – whereas odds are estimates by bookies – yes they’re worth watching as a pointer – but not as a set trend – Silver Birch (on whom I won at odds of 100/1 +) blows the odds, as a premanent trend, out of the water.
Puzzled – go to http://www.youtube.com – type in grand national and the year you want and they will all come up for free.
Got a REALLY good feeling guys that we are gong to be back at same stage as last year – again with some variances – but the winner in NEARLY ALL of our shortlists.
Well done ALL that we needed a new thread!!
#59
February 12th, 2009 22:27
Birchy – I gave Reveillez a mention on the other thread.
Could be JP’s sneaky horse of this years race, proven quality, but lightly raced due to injury. The big question mark is whether he is fully recovered.
Runner up to Hot Weld in the 2007 Whitbread, and with a best RPR of 160 this horse could be running off a very nice weight. Only 1 run in the last 2 years and was PU – this is the big risk; is he fully fit and JP / Jonjo hiding the home form to land a KJC style gamble, or is he well past it?
If Reveillez is still involved after Cheltenham (and esp if he has a good prep) the 100/1 currently on offer will look a massive price.
#60
February 12th, 2009 23:06
Showlad, Rambling Minster is on my short list too so will be going out tommorrow to get some 40/1 while it lasts.
I agree that price is a guide only and if you want the winner every year ignore it.
If you want a short list early at big prices you have too take a few risks – me I will settle for 8 wins from every 10 years (80% strike rate)if i can get to that point with the help of this great web site. Therefore I think anything above 50/1 now unless it comes in quickly is probably not going to win (I will go further and say any horse with more than one 50/1 quote with the big four, Tote, Corals, WH and Lad is not going to win and ofcourse I will be caught out once or twice in every 10years on this but I will still have a short list faster at big, big prices.
Its up to you – wait and get a low price (so many missed the 20/1 on Butlers did they not?) or get in now for the bigger prices (my top six bets are already on – a record for me this early).
#61
February 12th, 2009 23:09
Good Call Gammers – i immediately thought he could be the kjc type horse for this year .. i couldnt beleive his price on betfair …as u say its bit of a gamble but at the prices on offer u cant go wrong .. i will keeping an eye on this one leading up to cheltenham – old jp knows how to pull a fast one .. this could be the one this year …
what a great hand he has this year with butlers , garde , kjc . lami , cant buy time and this fellow..!
#62
February 12th, 2009 23:23
Well guys and girls after having a few to many SOUTHERN comforts in the queen VIC and alot of RAMBLING at some MINSTER that came into the cafe i’ve been left with two horses that are carrying my money this year!!!I also like Kilbeggan blade and Cornish sett but feel that they can get placed at best.Good luck and its free french fries for all at the chippie when one of them win!!!Regards Ian(rambo)beale .-)
#63
February 13th, 2009 00:14
I have just come across a message on the betfair ante post forum regarding rambling minster,stating that the owners are interested in going for the national. How true this is, i don’t know but its some positive news. (information by rhinestone). This horse fits all the trends and more and more people are starting to notice this. Very nicely weighted for the big race, not too sure about this weekends race at haydock on heavy ground.
#64
February 13th, 2009 01:34
Alanham I heard exactly the opposite that Rambling owners aren’t keen on the race! But just a rumour I have no concrete evidence to back that up, enough for me to keep a watching brief until someone can give some concrete positive reports of him being a definite from the yard. Anyone?
#65
February 13th, 2009 02:26
BRILLIANT SITE THIS. Thanks to all for your hard work, given for free.
Are there any stats on ruling out runners who have failed to complete(fell,P.U or U.R.) 2 or more times in the current season?
#66
February 13th, 2009 10:08
To all you Rambling Minster fans;
His record in C1 chase’s is as follows;
Mar ’07 finished 9/23 off a mark of 132 in the William HIll Trophy at the Cheltenham festival. This came after a win in a C2 chase off a mark of 124, so an 8lb rise.
Apr ’07 PU in the Scottish National off the same mark.
Jan ’08 6/20 over 24f(not too bad, granted) off a mark of 141.
So why do people think he can win the Grand National of a mark of 143? Somebody tell me why, without making reference to the stats.
#67
February 13th, 2009 10:10
I forgot to mention, Kilbeggan Blade beat Rambling Minster comfortably in the London National at Sandown, and Kilbeggan Blade 6lb better off when they meet at Aintree!
#68
February 13th, 2009 10:11
Again I ask…
Doesn’t a horse have to have been in the top 4 in either the Hennessy, Irish Nat, Scots Nat, Welsh Nat or a race over the National fences?
I can’t seem to find where Rambling Minster has done this?
#69
February 13th, 2009 10:49
Stephen Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 10:11 am
Again I ask…
Doesn’t a horse have to have been in the top 4 in either the Hennessy, Irish Nat, Scots Nat, Welsh Nat or a race over the National fences?
I can’t seem to find where Rambling Minster has done this?
MOST (not all) of the last 28 winners have done this. I think it was Crisp73 who provided us with this stat, so ill leave it to him.
#70
February 13th, 2009 10:58
Points in favour of Rambling Minster:
1) 1st in class 2 chase Jan 09, beating Character Building by 3 lengths. Reopposing off 4lb worse terms but a good form indicator. King Harald and Noir et Vert beaten in same race.
2) 1st in class 2 chase Dec 07 off top weight over 32f.
3) A sound jumper, with no F’s or UR’s in his record
4) Current OR and RPR ratings are the best in his career indicating a horse at the top of its form and possibly open to further improvement despite age of 11.
To provide a bit of balance the downsides would be his previous Aintree form (well beaten by Fundamentalist) and performance in the Scottish National.
On balance, a horse that ticks most of the boxes (what horse has the perfect profile after all?) and at 40/1 excellent value even if there are a few lingering doubts.
I don’t think there is any horse in the 120 that we couldn’t pick holes in, but this horse has fewer than most.
#71
February 13th, 2009 11:04
Those are all fair points Gammers, but he to me looks like a horse who will always fall short at the top level.
I dont like backing horses that haven’t placed or at least ran really well in a C1 race before; I cant remember who the last horse to win the GN without having done so. It must have been a long time ago.
You need CLASS to win the GN. This horse hasn’t showed me he has it yet
#72
February 13th, 2009 11:11
Just of a few observations about the horses we seem to be interested in, what I think they need to do to fit trends/profiles;
Butlers cabin – top 4 in a chase
Rambling Minster , Kilbeggan Blade, Garde Champetre – to be placed in a Grade 1 chase
Southern Vic – a 3 mile chase win, preferably over 28f (as has no form in Hennessey or Nationals, did unseat in race over GN fences)
Character Building – G2 win worth 17k
Simon – a 3mile chase win, preferably over 28f (no form in Hennessey, Nationals, races over GN fences)*Little Polveir fell twice in GN before winning in 89.
Silver Birch – if taking into account his point to point win, at least one more run over fences.
Hot Weld – two prep runs and previous two winners with two prep runs or less, Aldaniti 81, and Miinnehoma 94, also won one of their preps over fences.
Slight negatives for;
Cornish Sett- no unplaced horse has come back to win since Rag Trade ‘76 though Little Polveir unplaced before his two falls. CS did have wind op’ though and this has had an obvious improvement on his previously questionable stamina, won Badger Ales, 2nd in Welsh Nat.
Himalayan Trail – only Rough Quest, since 1990 has had two non finishes in winning season.
State Of Play – will probably have to race off at least 10-13 may be 11-1/ connections unsure about running if weights rise. Hedgehunter did win off 11-1 but bottom weight was 10-5. Bottom weight likely to be no higher than 10-2. Only Papillon has carried 12lbs or more than bottom weight since 1988.
What they needed at this stage, the last ten winners;
08 Comply Or Die- chase win in his final prep, had gone 9 chases without a win.
05 Hedgehunter – top 4 in a chase
00 Papillon – top 4 in a chase
#73
February 13th, 2009 11:15
Quick question crisp about the weight.
If as you say bottom weight is 10-02 would i be right in thinking that if using your method for the max weight to be carried by the winner will it be 10-13?
#74
February 13th, 2009 11:18
Systems I agree generally re price gauge, but would say to again temper it with some GN knowledge. After a quick scour at anyting over 50s with the main 4, check to see that there are no diamonds in the rough. In SB’s year, for sure I found one – a previous Welsh nat winner, returning slowly but surely to form, a class act similar to BC – And if I saw any of such calibre again I would include them. This year for me there is one more such horse.
RAMBLING fans: I think we have to go with this official quote just after weights announced – he’s looking good :
Keith Reveley (Rambling Minster 10st 1lb): “That sounds good enough to me and we would have a fighting chance of getting in off that.
“That would be a smashing weight so we’ll see how things go between now and then and if he’s in good form, we could give it a go.
“He’s entered at Haydock at the weekend but that must be a bit doubtful but I’d like to give him another run or two before the National.”
Now I have ONE BIG FAV to put to the table – can anyone source any quotes from Enda/info re the likelyhood of GARDE participating?
STATS FANS anyone having difficulty re ‘Best TS figures’ etc and a horse’s race history, go to:
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/racing.sd?r_date=2009-04-04#top
Then click on ‘card’ and the GN field appears.
Now the IMPORTANT bit I think most are missing out – for ALL the detailed and up to date info on a particular horse, then click on the particular horse’s NAME in the runners list and a page dedicated to that horse with all the history and in-depth stats, opens up.
#75
February 13th, 2009 11:35
As a fan of Rambling Minster I nevertheless agree with Dan Edwards, and think that the Minster needs to place(Dan is it top 3 or 4 not quite sure!) on Saturday or it would need to run in another G1 before the big day.
Stephen; the last eleven winners have all had top 5 form in Hennessey, top 3 in a Irish, Scots or Welsh National or a top 2 in a race over GN fences. 15 of the last 18 winners also have this profile. Those that hadn’t had won at least three chases at 3 miles with one of those wins at 28f or further. The last winner not to share these profiles was Specify in 71. He had two wins at 3miles and was second in the Paddy Power, called the Mackeson back then, and fell in a Hennessey. ‘Silver Birch’ made the point about including those that had ran in these profile races. I think only Lucius, Ben Nevis(still not quite complete research), Hallo Dandy and Lord Gyllene in the last thirty years had not contested a profile race. Still researching and will post at some stage a more complete list.
#76
February 13th, 2009 11:41
I will double check my stats Re: a place in a C1 race, and get back to you.
#77
February 13th, 2009 12:35
crisp 73
Bloody hell Crips just when I was getting very confident aout my short list (soon to be posted)I’am now all nervous and full of doubt. But you make very important and excellent points about many of the top fancies (excellent point on Himalayan trail x2 fail to finish but my money is already on).
Much to see and watch in the next few weeks.
Me I still think OR 136(9.08 – current weight) to OR 144(10.02)is where the winner is (and OR 146 Max)! Stand with the “trends” my friends (its a bit like the “Force” in Star Wars).
#78
February 13th, 2009 12:40
From Racing Post website…
Trainer John Quinn is confident Character Building can secure his first success over fences in almost two years in Saturday’s race.
Having made a winning reappearance over hurdles back in November, the nine-year-old went on to run creditably in two competitive handicap chases at Cheltenham before another pleasing runover hurdles at Doncaster.
He returns to fences over a more suitable trip on Saturday and with champion jockey Tony McCoy deputising for the injured Dougie Costello, Quinn is hopeful his charge should make his presence felt.
“We’re happy enough with him and you would think conditions at Haydock should suit him down to the ground,” said Quinn.
“We were happy with his run over hurdles at Doncaster lasttime and he has come out of the race in good form.
“Unfortunately Dougie’s injured and that’s why your man is riding him. He’ll do the job I would say.
“We’d be hopeful he’ll run a big race.”
Character Building is currently on 9st 12lb for the Grand National at Aintree following the publication of the weights earlier this week, meaning he will have his work cut out to get a run.
“Obviously he needs a good few to come out of the race but you never know,” Quinn added.
#79
February 13th, 2009 12:44
crisp 73
Dead keen to know what your list is. Love your work on past winners which I have filed away for future use.
I will post mine tonight.
#80
February 13th, 2009 12:44
Right, the last ten winners have ALL finished in the TOP THREE in AT LEAST ONE C1/G1 CHASE prior to winning their Grand National;
Comply or Die 2 (Sun Alliance & a Novice Chase)
Silver Birch 1 (Welsh National)
Numbersixvalverde 1 (Irish National)
Hedgehunter 2 (Welsh National, Novice Chase)
Amberleigh House 2 (Grand National, Novice Chase)
Montys Pass 6 (Kerry National x 2, Munster National x 2, 2 handicaps
Bindaree 5 (Tommy Whittle, Welsh National, 3 Novice)
Red Marauder 1 (an additional 1 over hurdles as well)
Papillon 1 (Irish National)
Bobbyjo 2 (Irish Mational, Punchestown GC)
Earth Summit 4 (Welsh National x 2 Scottish National, plus one other
A note of caution perhaps; 4 of the last ten had only done it once, so it may be broken.
#81
February 13th, 2009 12:45
All interesting stuff guys. Although he is a fine horse, I can’t understand why there is a strong view for Garde Champetre, fiollowing the (FR) breeding argiment, which is a strong one. I would back Black Apalachi and Hear the Echo but for the likley weights rise. As of now, the three that interest me (noting some are big fans of number of runs in a season) are State of Play, Trabolgan and Reveillez (mentioned earlier by another chap). And I agree that Rambling Minster and Kilbeggan Blade are worth a second look – Hot Weld would be interesting if he made it in too. The strange thing (also as pointed out elsewhere) is that King John’s Castle (2nd last year) has never won over 3 miles or further.
I have been working on a spreadsheet going through each trend per runner and would be happy to share it with anyone prepared to help me refine and finalise it (Systemsman for example?).
#82
February 13th, 2009 12:50
mornin,comply or die scoped dirty,non runner weekend.
possible problem for pipe team.had planned to put head gear back on.
also enda bolger says like to run garde champetre fresh.is 20 odd days enough break.
just bit of info for thought
#83
February 13th, 2009 12:52
Great work Crisp…….very important stats, just a thing with the National stat, i thought i read somewhere on the old thread that a horse only had to have run over national fences and you said have a top 2 place…..could you confirm please.
Right i am off to apply these stats to my final 8…
#84
February 13th, 2009 13:12
Systems, you’re nervous!!! I’m very surprised that so few winners needed to prove anything at this stage, 7 weeks’ish until the race!
Brian; I’m only writing what I’m seeing about the weight. Since the modifications to fences after 89, I make it that the average weight carried by the winner has fallen from 10-12 to 10-8. Five horses carried 14lbs or more than bottom weight to victory from 70-89, even leaving out Red Rum’s two wins of huge weights, compared to none since 1990.
#85
February 13th, 2009 13:17
Well Hennessey,scots,irish, etc,etc stat applied and all 8 still stand, i was hoping it would help knock at least 2 out…. so my search continues.
4 of my last 8 are down to run tomorrow, so i guess things might be a little clearer come tomorrow evening.(weather permitting)
#86
February 13th, 2009 13:21
oh, I almost forgot, going back to the 11_01 stat, taking it back further, since and including 1990, 9 horses have placed carrying more than 11_01, although as we saw, 7 in the last ten years show it is becoming more frequent.
#87
February 13th, 2009 13:27
CLASS OF HORSE
Unclassy horses don’t win Grand Nationals anymore. Year on year the standard of entries has risen – one of my memorable victories, BOBBYJO, would not have made the cut in any of the last seven runnings (thanks to the Racing Post for that source of information). In the last ten years the official rating (OR) of the winning horse has been between 136 (Bindaree) and 144 (Hedgehunter). This year’s national has attracted a record 16 entries with an OR of 155 or more (8 more than last year). It is generally perceived that the reason for these entries was due to the possibility of Denman running but that is no longer the case so expect several further withdrawals. However it is fair to assume that the OR of the 2009 National winner might be higher than recent trends suggest. Let’s investigate this further and score our remaining candidates accordingly.
The sixteen entries with OR’s of 155 or more are:
157 AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (IRE) 11-11-01
158 AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 7-11-02
155 CANE BRAKE (IRE) 10-10-13
156 CHELSEAHARBOUR(IRE) 9-11-00
158 CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02
166 EXOTIC DANCER (FR) 9-11-10
156 IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 8-11-00
155 KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-10-13
164 MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 8-11-08
160 NOTRE PERE (FR) 8-11-04
159 NOZIC (FR) 8-11-03
155 ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13
161 SNOOPY LOOPY (IRE) 11-11-05
156 SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-00
161 STAR DE MOHAISON (FR) 8-11-05
157 WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-01
Only 6 of these remain out of my exclusion zone at the moment and of these all six are in lists Y and Z as they will be carrying too much weight should EXOTIC DANCER or MADISON DU BERLAIS or both withdraw.
AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS was definitely entered in the hope that DENMAN was going to run. Barring setbacks CANE BRAKE and CLOUDY LANE will both run. I do not have a current source on ROLL ALONG’s plans. Based on OR trends and the unlikely chance of their making the starting line up I am eliminating three more horses – AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS, SNOWY MORNING and WAR OF ATTRITION.
Now let’s categorise the remaining horses (those in Lists A, B, Y and Z) and score them according to where they fall in the region of our OR marker 136 – 144.
155+
155 CANE BRAKE (IRE) 10-10-13
158 CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02
155 ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13
150 – 154
150 – STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08
153 – BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-10-11
152 – MY WILL (FR) 9-10-10
153 – PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-10-11
152 – BALLYFITZ 9-10-10
154 – COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12
154 – OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12
145 – 149
145 – GOLDEN FLIGHT(FR) 10-10-03
148 – MON MOME (FR) 9-10-06
147 – BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05
146 – REVEILLEZ 10-10-04
145 – L’AMI (FR) 10-10-03
147 – OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 9-10-05
146 – PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-04
148 – SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-06
145 – FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-03
140 – 144
144 – FLEET STREET 10-10-02
143 – DARKNESS 10-10-01
141 – HOT WELD 10-9-13
141 – KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13
140 – BROOKLYNBROWNIE (IRE) 10-9-12
140 – CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-9-12
140 – HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12
142 – GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00
144 – CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-02
143 – SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01
144 – BATTLECRY 8-10-02
143 – RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01
142 – ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00
143 – IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-01
143 – TRABOLGAN (IRE) 11-10-01
143 – CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-01
142 – OEDIPE (FR) 7-10-00
135 – 139
138 – ICE TEA (IRE) 9-9-10
139 – KELAMI (FR) 11-9-11
139 – ZABENZ (NZ) 12-9-11
137 – COMPANERO (IRE) 9-9-09
136 – DIX VILLEZ (FR) 10-9-08
137 – NICHE MARKET (IRE) 8-9-09
136 – BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 8-9-08
135 – IN THE LOOP (IRE) 11-9-07
Looking at this list even from a purely percentages point-of view it looks like we need to shift the historical 136-144 trend to a 140-149 outcome. Stats don’t lie unless you make them though so horses with an OR between 140 and 144 are being awarded 3 points, those with OR’s between 145 and 149 will receive 2 points, ORs of 136 – 139 and 150 – 154 get 1. Harshly those above 155 get nothing extra here and IN THE LOOP is eliminated, falling below our minimum expectation of the winner’s OR.
So four horses have been eliminated based on Official Ratings 77 leaving us with 43 contenders. By the end of today you will see this diminish to a list of 26, one of whom will WIN the 2009 John Smith’s Grand National. I will call my final 26 LIST EN.
Laters…
#88
February 13th, 2009 13:27
Hi Puzzled, what is your final 8?
Daniel, looking forward to seeing you evolving list.
#89
February 13th, 2009 13:33
Cheers Crisp.
I know you stated it earlier on the other blog but couldnt find it among the many posts on there.
I think its an excellent observation by yourself and am keen to apply it to my own trends for finding the winner this year.
Just wasn’t sure how much more than bottom weight you included in your findings.
#90
February 13th, 2009 13:55
Back on the old thread
Systemsman Says:
February 4th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Dan “The last 10 winners all had at least 3 runs BEFORE the weights came out. Is it too risky therefore to put a line through those that only have 2 runs come weights day”
Dan trends can and do change slightly from year to year! (last year the “blinkers myth” was destroyed). I think every now and again we will all be caught out but not too often i hope.
So min two runs prior to weights coming out would be the safe option (but three best).
I think that this is a VERY IMPORTANT stat to keep in mind.
Showlad i will post what i hope is a final list of 5 once i have done a little bit more work…and like i said after the Blue Square tomorrow i hope things will be a little clearer.
#91
February 13th, 2009 14:17
What date on old thread, puzzled, there tons of entries, lol.
Thanks
#92
February 13th, 2009 14:22
Interesting once again Rascal. Keep it up mate!
#93
February 13th, 2009 14:31
Showlad as posted above 4th Feb at 12.29pm…..i copied it
#94
February 13th, 2009 14:31
Dan Edwards, thanks for top3 G1 info. I’m now assuming that all winners since 1990 fit that stat due to having contested similar races. Will try and check asap.
Systems, I think you’re assumption of OR146 or less for the winner is a very fair guess.
My very shortlist, at the moment is Parsons Legacy and Cornish Sett.
Others on currently long list of those fitting winner profiles; State Of Play, Mon Mome, Butlers Cabin, L’Ami, Rambling Minster, Kilbeggan Blade, Endless Power, Garde Champetre, Character Building, Brooklyn Brownie, Himalayan Trail. Still agnostic on FR question though!
There are several more that are good on current trends that I think need a 3mile or long distance win/place to get me really interested; Southern Vic, Fundamentalist, Simon(interestingly nearly back to his OR 143 racing post win in ’07 after being as high as 153)
#95
February 13th, 2009 14:53
Thanks Puzzled but only post u made on old thread on 4 Feb was re Fundamentalist. No worries.
#96
February 13th, 2009 15:03
crisp 73 Says:
February 13th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
Dan Edwards, thanks for top3 G1 info. I’m now assuming that all winners since 1990 fit that stat due to having contested similar races. Will try and check asap.
Just to complete;
Lord Gyllene 2 (Midlands National, Novice Chase)
Rough Quest 3 (Racing Post, Gold Cup, Hennesey)
Royal Athlete 1 (Gold Cup)
Miinnehoma 2 (Sun Alliance, Welsh National)
Party Politics 2 ( Welsh National, Hennesey)
A 15/15 stat. Im not too sure about Seagram though. I havent checked his record, but I dont think he raced over here much?
#97
February 13th, 2009 15:05
Just remembered Seagram came 3rd in the Racing Post, and Mr Frisk has twice played in the Hennesey.
Maybe Little Polvier is the last winner not to have placed in a C1/G1 race previously.
#98
February 13th, 2009 15:10
CLASS, STAYING POWER and AT HOME AT AINTREE
Following on from my previous post class horses win the Grand National in modern times. All ten the last decade’s winners had won a race worth £17k or more prior to their Grand National trend. I am eliminating those horses that do not fit this trend. I appreciate there are nearly 2 months to go before the big race day but I am confident in omitting the following:
Staying Power. My next stage is to award points to horses who have career wins over 4 miles (the Grand National is 4m4f). We want to reward those with proven staying power so it’s 2 points for every win over 4 miles. The following horses climb up the ladder of contention:
4 points HOT WELD 10-9-13
4 points COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12
2 points BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05
2 points HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12
2 points SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-06
2 points RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01
I am also awarding half a point to horses for every win over 3 miles (discounting the 4-mile races above) and to reflect comfort running at Aintree there is an additional point for horses that have registered a win at the track (regardless of which fences were jumped.
With this done I am now merging the four lists to create a league table of the horses in contention. We have the following result.
14.5 HOT WELD 10-9-13
11.5 KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13
11.5 RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01
11.0 HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12
10.5 SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-06
10.0 GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00
9.5 STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08
9.5 DARKNESS 10-10-01
9.5 BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05
9.5 ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00
9.0 MON MOME (FR) 9-10-06
9.0 COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12
8.5 FLEET STREET 10-10-02
8.0 CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-01
7.5 GOLDEN FLIGHT(FR) 10-10-03
7.5 REVEILLEZ 10-10-04
7.5 L’AMI (FR) 10-10-03
7.5 BATTLECRY 8-10-02
7.5 OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12
7.5 OEDIPE (FR) 7-10-00
7.0 BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-10-11
7.0 BALLYFITZ 9-10-10
7.0 CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-02
7.0 SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01
7.0 PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-04
7.0 FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-03
7.0 TRABOLGAN (IRE) 11-10-01
6.5 IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-01
6.0 MY WILL (FR) 9-10-10
6.0 OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 9-10-05
5.0 PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-10-11
5.0 CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02
4.5 DIX VILLEZ (FR) 10-9-08
4.5 ZABENZ (NZ) 12-9-11
4.0 KELAMI (FR) 11-9-11
4.0 CANE BRAKE (IRE) 10-10-13
3.5 NICHE MARKET (IRE) 8-9-09
3.5 BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 8-9-08
3.5 ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13
All horses below a score of seven will be eliminated leaving us with LIST EN – 27 horses (sorry, I miscounted before), one of which WILL WIN THIS YEAR’S GRAND NATIONAL. I hope your current investments all show in the list which will follow with best current prices for each horse.
#99
February 13th, 2009 15:14
sorry – eliminated horses based on the 17k trend:
BROOKLYNBROWNIE (IRE) 10-9-12
CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-9-12
ICE TEA (IRE) 9-9-10
COMPANERO (IRE) 9-9-09
#100
February 13th, 2009 15:24
Trainers comments below regarding Character Buildings chances at Haydock tomorrow. Victory here would give him a fantastic profile and will see him shorten to one of the favourites for the National.
“We’re happy enough with him and you would think conditions at Haydock should suit him down to the ground,” said Quinn.
“We were happy with his run over hurdles at Doncaster last time and he has come out of the race in good form.
I am already on Character Building but will be backing him again prior to the race tomorrow.
Comply and Die has been ruled out of the Haydock race as the stable are not happy with him.
#101
February 13th, 2009 15:31
Wait until after the weekend Rascal as Character Building could romp away with the Haydock race
#102
February 13th, 2009 15:33
Rascal wot is Character short of 17K, a few hundred?
I would exclude him at peril. CB has to be in GN mix in my book.
#103
February 13th, 2009 15:35
Great stuff Dan. Little Polveir won Scots National in 87! Must check West Tip and Hallo Dandy, Maori Venture was 3rd in Hennessey in ’86, Last Suspect was 3rd twice in Irish Nat. I think we may have got a very good 25 yr trend here!
#104
February 13th, 2009 15:41
My final post will come after the weekend so if Character Building does come home at Haydock I will reassess prior to my final selections being made available. Promise
Thanks for your support Stephen.
#105
February 13th, 2009 15:46
And ive just realised they were ALL over a distance of 3 miles or more WITH THE EXCEPTION of Red Marauder (His was over 20f) although I consider his win to be a bit of a freak result due to the extreme weather conditions.
In fact, for those who like 9/10 or 19/20 stats, only Montys Pass had not placed in a C1 race over a distance FURTHER than 3 miles.
I think that stat alone would rule out a heck of a lot or horses this year!
#106
February 13th, 2009 15:55
Sorry for the above post, which duplicates one earlier that I had missed!
If we are looking at a possible shift in OR this year due to the compression of the handicap as it stands, we would probably allow 136 – 149 to be safe. This would be a 12/12 stat if we go back to 1997 when Lord Gyllene won off 149 and in 1998 when Earth Summit won off 147.
It is also worth studying the “win in Class 1 0r 2″ stat. 10 of the last 12 winners had actually won a class 1 race, so this could help in narrowing down the shortlist further.
10 of the 12 winners also finished in the top 5 in their final prep race, the last 11 winners were either winless or had one win during the current campaign.
Did I read on here somewhere that all recent winners had won a race within the last 18 months, unless injured for a long period? If this is the case, surely Butlers Cabin needs to win before the Grand National as his last win was in April 07.
#107
February 13th, 2009 15:58
Prices on my 27 against the field are given below. Hot Weld has emerged as the surprise leading contender but the final analysis is not yet done. On Monday many in this list will be axed! I will give details as elaborately as I can and let you know who I think will win this year’s Grand National.
If you’re desperate for a bet today then my advice is an each-way bet on the Irish horse Trabolgan at 66-1 and, of course, take the 16′s on Butler’s Cabin for the win if you missed the 20′s.
Otherwise, hold fire and I will give you my final word until closer to the day of the race on Monday.
Please note that I agree to reassess Character Building if he wins tomorrow – his ‘score’ would be 9.
33-1 HOT WELD 10-9-13
33-1 KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13
40-1 RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01
33-1 HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12
40-1 SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-06
40-1 GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00
50-1 DARKNESS 10-10-01
33-1 STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08
150-1 ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00
16-1 BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05
40-1 MON MOME (FR) 9-10-06
21-1 COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12
50-1 FLEET STREET 10-10-02
25-1 CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-01
40-1 GOLDEN FLIGHT(FR) 10-10-03
50-1 L’AMI (FR) 10-10-03
50-1 BATTLECRY 8-10-02
100-1 OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12
50-1 OEDIPE (FR) 7-10-00
66-1 REVEILLEZ 10-10-04
50-1 BALLYFITZ 9-10-10
66-1 TRABOLGAN (IRE) 11-10-01
40-1 CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-02
40-1 PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-04
33-1 SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01
100-1 FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-03
22-1 BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-10-11
#108
February 13th, 2009 16:05
My god!!! I’ve got some catching up to do,
Great work everyone! just skimming thro looks like some serious sorting
out been going on. Everyones electrical fields have realigned
was working yesterday, just back here after a 12hr power cut!!!
happened at exactly midnight on friday 13th! I don’t even believe in that one! but I have had some weird luck and stuff recently.
Anyway my router was fried!.. the gods not on wackys side me thinks! punished me for visiting him in his little cell
well done admin you were like Speedy Gonzales! arriva! arriva!
#109
February 13th, 2009 16:13
Trabolgan isnt running in the national according to owners racing manager!
#110
February 13th, 2009 16:31
Ooo, thanks Dan – I’ve actually got that in my notes for Monday’s post – sorry everyone. Thanks for spotting that – typing this all up in a hurry today as you’ve probably noticed by my typos. 66′s on Reveillez is my big-price recommendation for the moment but would recommend holding off until I give a complete picture on Monday.
Was thinking about doing a written commentary on the race as if it were live with the 40 I think will make the cut and revealing my top four tips through that before providing a full explanation afterwards. What does everyone think? Worth my effort?
#111
February 13th, 2009 16:40
Performance Factor, good stuff.
Top 3 in a Grade 1 place.
Well I can’t find one for Hallo Dandy,( 81-Aldaniti 2nd in Scots Nat, 83 -Corbiere,won Welsh Nat, did) but I’m using Times Archive -very good and free- the papers never always recorded what sort of race it was. Just for the record HD was 4th the previous year and won at least 3 chases at 3 miles and one of those was at 28f.
West Tip won Ritz Club at Cheltenham Fest, Mildmay/Cazalet chase at Sandown and was second in Chepstow’s rehearsal chase so he’s safe, I think. Still 85-08, the last 23 winners, is some run,eh?
So not sure about ’82-Grittar and Hallo Dandy, Red M and Monty definitely didn’t get top3 grade 1 place at a distance of over 3miles but, get this, all four of these horses had experience of GN fences! Cheers Dan Edwards.
#112
February 13th, 2009 16:42
Rascal – welcome to the Reveillez fan club .. u me and gammers are the only members at the mo .. im going to add him to my list …. !
1. Southern Vic – Cl winner
2. State of Play – C1 Winner
3. Himalayan Trail – C1 Winner
4. Butlers Cabin – C1 Wwinner
5. Hear the Echo – C1 winner
6. Garde Champetre – C2 Winner
Fun big price bet
Reveillez – C1 winner
#113
February 13th, 2009 16:46
haha – pleased to a member.
#114
February 13th, 2009 16:48
I’m also on Reveillez at big prices Rascal and Birchy,one thats maybe slipped under the radar.I look forward to hearing your 4 Rascal!
#115
February 13th, 2009 16:51
At the moment my 5 against the field are, in some order of preference;
1 – Butlers Cabin
2 – Parsons Legacy
3 – Garde Champetre
4 – Character Building
5 – State of Play
Whilst Himalayan Trail meets the stats, his last run put me off.. a lot!
I am keeping an eye on Rambling Minster (needs to win or at least challenge for the win this weekend for me) Southern Vic and perhaps even Brooklyn Brownie.
#116
February 13th, 2009 17:06
Anybody, calculated how many horses have a top 3 Grade 1 place?
A 23/23 trend, placed in a grade 1 further than 3 miles 21/23.
I know his OR has never got up in to the 140′s, he will be on an OR of 140 in the National,and he’s a few quid short of a 17k win but how does Brooklyn Brownie- RPR 143 TS 140 rate?
By the way ’79- Rubstic was second in Scots Nat, ’78- Lucius was placed in the old Greenall Whitley National trial at Haydock(sure this must have been grade 1, Admin any ideas?)
#117
February 13th, 2009 17:07
Is Himilayan Train due to run again soon? Only 8 chase starts so far and needs minimum 10 I beleive?
#118
February 13th, 2009 17:09
….sorry typo ‘Trail’ not Train!!!
#119
February 13th, 2009 17:16
great work rascal,watching with great interest,and all my 6 backed are still in.however i think you will find that trabolgan is no longer a runner although i can’t remember where i read this but i have somewhere.please check before backing.
#120
February 13th, 2009 17:23
sorry already been stated.SILVER BIRCH great list 4 the same,just take s.vic and hte out and put cornish sett and rambling minster in and you are there my freind.
#121
February 13th, 2009 17:24
Nicky Henderson on Golden Flight, Fleet Street, Trabolgan and Oedipe (Racing Post GN pullout) – “The likely ones to run are Fleet Street and Golden Flight. I’ll need to get a run into Golden Flight fairly soon but he’s very good.”
That’s all I have.
#122
February 13th, 2009 19:22
Rascal – great analysis
One observation – you award 2 points for each win over 4m for staying power..
..this sounds reasonable except when you look at the last 10 winners – only Silver Birch and Comply Or Die had previously raced at, let alone won, a chase over 4m+ (except for Hedgehunter who fell in the National in 2004 and Amberleigh House who came third in 2003)
Is this fair?
#123
February 13th, 2009 19:36
As I stated in an earlier post, if Character Building wins at Haydock tomorrow, and in doing so posts a RPR in excess of 144, he will have a superb profile for the race!
With this in mind, my recommnendation is to back the horse in a double with ladbrokes, at 6/1 for tomorrows race, and 25/1 for the National. The double pays 182/1. So in effect, as he realistically has to win tomorrow to be considered, we are getting 182/1 about the horse for the National. If he does win tomorrow he likely to be one of the favourites, so a small wager on the double tomorrow could look a steal come National day. If he doesn’t win tomorrow he can probably be discounted anyway, so it looks well worth the risk!
#124
February 13th, 2009 20:42
Rascal amazing I’ve got my top six in your top 9! (dont agree on Hot weld by the way.
Will post my list but need another 24 hours to place them in order so they will be up tommorrow night (sorry everyone but i want to do a good job).
Will now be using Dans work – “Right, the last ten winners have ALL finished in the TOP THREE in AT LEAST ONE C1/G1 CHASE prior to winning their Grand National” (thanks Dan. A 15/15 stat just cannot be ignored)to double check all runners and to work out the order of merit.
Almost there and feeling very confident again with most of the main contenders already covered.
#125
February 13th, 2009 20:45
Hello everyone! Excellent work, been checking in on a regular basis and reading but this is my first post! Mainly to help Performance Factor – You won’t get those odds for the double! Bookies have a rule to do with related doubles and they will offer you a special price for this double. Hope that saves you any trouble should Character Building win tomorrow!
#126
February 13th, 2009 20:53
Excellent idea Performance Factor. I had never thought of that! Well worth it when you look at it.
#127
February 13th, 2009 20:57
Just stuck my GN bet on before the prices go down. All to WIN.
Spread some small bets on these and will pick one horse to add more to at a later date.
1. Butlers Cabin
2. Character Building
3. Garde Champetre
4. Rambling Minister
5. Himalayan Trail
6. Kilbeggan Blade
All have great stamina and low weight so surley one will come through and do the business.
#128
February 13th, 2009 20:57
Bloody good advice Performance Factor for anyone wanting to cover Character Building – should he win he will be in the first four in the betting (but I’am very unsure he will). Now do I risk about £15 just to cover myself – will sleep on that one?????
“With this in mind, my recommnendation is to back the horse in a double with ladbrokes, at 6/1 for tomorrows race, and 25/1 for the National. The double pays 182/1″.
#129
February 13th, 2009 21:00
Stephen, glad you approve. If we had done the same before Comply Or Die won the Eider last year, we would have been sitting on a real good bet come National day! I have had £20 on this evening, so a potential 3.5K return for that stake looks pretty good to me! If he fails tomorrow, he is unlikely to win the National anyway, so it seems a logical double to me.
Systems, would be interesting to know your top six, even if not in order.
#130
February 13th, 2009 21:03
Systems. I also have my doubts as to whether he will win tomorrow, but he has a really good chance and I think the double just cannot be ignored, even to very small stakes!
It will be a really interesting race to watch and should give major pointers to the National. I just wonder whether Coe might be the fly in the ointment here for National hopefuls!
#131
February 13th, 2009 21:07
Looks like I warned you too late! Anyone else thinking of doing the Character Building double please be aware that you will not have the bet settled at full multiple odds should he win both races!!
#132
February 13th, 2009 21:19
SYSTEMS MAN i think your 6 are
rambling minster
state of play
killbegan blade
himalayan trail
garde champetre
darkness
how close is that. agree with 4 but have cornish and butlers not killbegan and darkness.
#133
February 13th, 2009 22:03
It’s on Performance Factor
I could only afford a £5ew double at the moment but I managed to get 13/2 and 25/1
Come on AP, steer him home son!
#134
February 13th, 2009 22:27
As has previously been mentioned, with no stand-out horse this year perhaps the 2009 National will be the race where one or two of the established trends fall.
With that in mind I have gone back and looked at which horses fall short on just 1 ‘crucial’ trend or 2 ‘desireable’ trends. The results are quite interesting with some classy horses included.
Currently excludes Character Building, but that could all change come tomorrow afternoon.
Group A – meet all trends I’m using:
Rambling Minster, Parsons Legacy, Garde Champetre, Simon.
Group B – fail on 1 ‘desireable’ trend:
Reveillez, State of Play, Southern Vic, Darkness, Trabolgan, Always Waining, Monkerhostin, Ollie Magern, Kelami.
Group C fail on 1 ‘crucial’ or 2 ‘desireable’ trends:
Exotic Dancer, Madison du Berlais, War of Attrition, Knowhere, Cane Brake, My Will, Silver Birch, Butlers Cabin, Cornish Sett, Fleet Street, Kilbeggan Blade, Himalayan Trail.
Produces quite a different list to normal, notably in the area of the higher weighted horses who meet most other trends. Not saying I would necessarily back any from list C, or the higher ranked from list B were the weights to go up but indicates how many entries are there or thereabouts on the trends.
Of particular note would be Monkerhostin, Ollie Magern and State of Play were the unthinkable to happen and Exotic Dancer take his chance in the race!
#135
February 13th, 2009 22:27
Hi guys….i looked into doing this double bet on Character Building today as i had the same idea and was told that as it was the same horse it would count as a specialist bet and trading would quote a special price on the double…..which obviously would be reduced odds, so i did not take it any further…..is this right or have i been mis-led?
#136
February 13th, 2009 22:33
Puzzled, I tried it with 4 of the major bookies and 2 wouldn’t let me but the other 2 did. I’m not sure if I’m allowed to mention their names on here or not but just try it with different bookmakers and you will find some that will let you
#137
February 13th, 2009 22:35
Great work from everyone,really enjoying the debate, just thought i would add a note of caution to anyone doubling up on tomorrows gold cup Grand National double as the stats are not good as no winner has done the double in the same year,suny bay went closest, even placed horses dont do well with niki dee the only one to place in the same year and the only horse to win again in the same season was young kenny in 1999, hope this helps and thanks to all for all the effort put in.
#138
February 13th, 2009 22:35
Spot on puzzled. See my earlier posts.
#139
February 13th, 2009 22:38
Hi Stephen, i just spoke to 2 major bookies who i have accounts with and both of them said that the bet would not be accepted at current odds and special odds would have to be quoted.
So i hope that those of you who have placed bets already will have them honoured at those prices
#140
February 13th, 2009 22:41
Well I have the bet on and it has been accepted by the one I tried. Again, don’t know if I’m allowed to mention which but all I will say is that he is a character in Friends
#141
February 13th, 2009 22:43
do you mean Joey…he he he
#142
February 13th, 2009 22:46
IS VIC THERE?
#143
February 13th, 2009 22:47
Half Day Harry – Didnt they say that about the Eider last year when Comply or Die won?
#144
February 13th, 2009 22:48
Excellent point Dan.
Although I am clearly biased in this case!
#145
February 13th, 2009 23:03
well i’m on with on-line a/c ladbrookes there said no probs f— em
#146
February 13th, 2009 23:05
well guys the above mentioned bet is classed as a “related bet” and any bets taken in error will be settled (i am talking as if he has won tomorrow and the National already) as 2 singles.
I just got this from one of the big 4′s rule book
We do not accept multiple wagers where the respective outcomes are related, related meaning that should one event happen the outcome of another event in the wager becomes more likely to happen (i.e., Generous to win the Derby, Generous to win the Irish Derby and Generous to win the Prix De L’Arc de Triomphe). Should a related wager be accepted in error then the whole stake will be equally divided as singles on selections with the price given for the first race/event to take place being accepted and subsequent selections being settled at prices available immediately after the previous race/event has been completed.
However it is still a good bet i suppose if you can get a reasonable special price quoted from the bookies trading dept.
#147
February 13th, 2009 23:07
Well they have taken my bet. It should say if they don’t want it to happen. So I’m having my double
#148
February 13th, 2009 23:07
Loving the blog. Looking to put the bet on in the morning on CB. Did Badcrooks accept any of your money @ tha price?
#149
February 13th, 2009 23:09
Also, I don’t see how it can be determined by them that if he wins tomorrow it is more likely he wins the National. We just think it is because of trends.
#150
February 13th, 2009 23:11
me too stephen,printed receipt of acceptence off to comfirm.will get kavanagh qc on the bloody job.
#151
February 13th, 2009 23:12
Dan-This is true Dan,we must remember stats tell us what has happened before not what will happen in the future, however if we are using stats to help identify the possible winner,as far as i can see Comply or Die is the only winner of the Eider Chase in last ten years to run in Grand National in same season 1 run 1 win,5 previous winners of Blue Square Gold Cup to run in same year National 0 wins, i was only trying to help.
#152
February 13th, 2009 23:26
I agree Harry that it is a poor record and doesn’t look that appealing on paper.
Hopefully this can be the year that changes it
#153
February 13th, 2009 23:34
“Systems, would be interesting to know your top six, even if not in order”
OK in No order except that Butlers Cabin will not now be in the first three – happy now Wacky? (I will also take note of Dan’s work and place all runners who have placed in a Class 1 Chase before all others).
In NO Order (will post this tomorrow)- eight against the field.
Garde Champetre
Southern Vic
Himalayan Trail
Darkness (the “Dark” horse in the GN)
Rambling Minster
Kilbeggan Blade
Rambling Minster
Butlers Cabin
Now with too much weight and unlikely to win
Black Apalachi
Hear The Echo
On watch list
Parsons Legacy
Character Building (if he wins tomorow he’s in the list)
Will have two doubles tomorrow on both CB and RM in case one wins the Blue Square Gold Cup along with the GN!
#154
February 13th, 2009 23:36
It should say:
In NO Order (will post this tomorrow)- seven against the field.
Garde Champetre
Southern Vic
Himalayan Trail
Darkness (the “Dark” horse in the GN)
Rambling Minster
Kilbeggan Blade
Butlers Cabin
#155
February 13th, 2009 23:39
The biggest worry is that even the great RED RUM used this race 5 times as a warm up for Aintree and the one time it won, it was beaten in the national.As well as Red RUM,Party Politics and Earth Summit have run in the haydock race and gone on to victory at Aintree.Im praying RAMBO doesn’t win 2mrw.Just looked at the last eleven winners and none had form figures 000 like Butlers Cabin!!! Loading my Betfair account to Lay Lay LAy!!!Will soon have my casino Riiiiiicccccckkkkkyyyyy
#156
February 13th, 2009 23:48
Come on Systemsman you know it makes sense cross those French breds off your shortlist!!I know im a pain in the Butt and i keep on like a long playing record,but i want us all to have a shortlist of 3 horses-RAMBLING MINSTER,SOUTHERN VIC & KILBEGGAN BLADE.I know what you are thinking but these are the only ones that are close enough to fit the trends.FACT
#157
February 13th, 2009 23:57
Will ahve to think again about those two doubles as they are a “related” bet. Will need a good price to part with my money.
#158
February 14th, 2009 00:00
Wacky – getting nearer to you. We agree on the three and I am getting colder on BC but not ready to ditch him yet if he gets on 10.10 or under (if he had been given a few pounds less I would still have him in my top 4 – my money is already on anyway).
#159
February 14th, 2009 00:13
Just tried to find horses with a OR of 136-146 that has won a grade 1 that could fit the stats and found 2 which were Darkness and Cornish Sett(finished 12th last year)so the grade 1 stat may not be upheld this year.
#160
February 14th, 2009 08:58
Hello all you GN bloggers. I’ve been following this years thread with great interest – it’s a pleasure to be able to read comments from so many informed writers.
My top 3 are as follows:-
Himalayan Trail
Kilbeggan Blade
Southern Vic
Dangers:-
Rambling Minster & Character Building
Garde Champetre (French)
Butlers Cabin (French & over-weighted by Phil Smith)
Comments on the above:-
Himalayn Trail doesn’t hold the perfect profile – only had 8 chases but having won the 4m 1f Midlands National (surged clear after 4 out, stayed on strongly, easily – won 22L) should be considered a leading contender. I think HT is a Spring horse and could well bolt up off another low weight.
Kilbeggan Blade & Character Building all have form against Rambling Minster. Versus RM, CB is 7lb better in for a 3L loss but the Blade is 6lbs better in for a 4.5L win. Out of these 3 at present you’d pick Kilbeggan Blade (profile of 1st, 1st 1st too good??), regardless of how CB runs on Saturday.
Southern Vic – profile doesn’t stand out – needs a good run to inspire confidence.
Sorry systemsman but Darkness has to be discounted as only 2 full runs (& 2 pu) since 2005 is not good enough.
I would be interested to see comments on Top Speed figures for the leading contenders.
#161
February 14th, 2009 09:26
Just thought you should all know tried placing a double on CB on willhill they accepted the bet and took the money but i got an error message back saying i had to phone them and quote slip70.
Phoned the guy and they said that the bet wwas relatd and would therefore be voided, so they give me my money back.
Have emailed them looking for odds on him to do the double
#162
February 14th, 2009 10:20
Hmm well I haven’t had anything back yet from the place I put the bet on.
#163
February 14th, 2009 10:35
Wow. How many posts have there been since I last contributed?
Having re-evaluated, I’ve not totally dismissed Echo’s chances but am not considering for any more money as it’s already on and I have to hope he has a chance! Apparently, Mouse Morris is threatening to go for back to back Irish Nationals instead. Still happy enough with BC and I think he can carry the extra weight. However, I’m more confident with my 3rd choice, Himalayan Trail and have now backed Rambling Minster. I’m disregarding Southern Vic and, for the moment, Character Building. I have money on Darkness on Betfair and expect to lay it off for a small free bet plus a bit of profit. Other than that, we’ll wait and see.
#164
February 14th, 2009 10:37
nothing back from laddies either stephen and still reads ok on statement and outstanding bets.
#165
February 14th, 2009 10:43
Morning all.
New to the forum but have been following for some time. Have a number of antepost bets on already and these most closely resemble those put forward by Systemsman. The main reason for this post however is to alert you to the offer that BlueSquare have today in terms of any horse winning today’s long distance chase and the National in April. As it is a special bet there is no issue about “related bets”. I’m on CB and have had a small interest on MM and CS.
#166
February 14th, 2009 10:54
Hi guys, been fascinating reading your work! Been very helpful with narrowing down my list and I’m pleased to see that my top horses feature- got some questions for you all though:
Will Kilbeggan’s Blade be running? Just I’ve seen that his rank is something like 62 which could mean he’ll drop out?
Also, will Hot Weld be running? Since he’s not run since 2007! Or am I just reading that wrong?
Based on what’s been said and my own research, my top 6 would be, in no particular order:
1) Black Apalachi (especially since he won Bechers- a c1 race.
2)Rambling Minster
3) Kilbeggan’s blade (if he runs)
4)Parson’s Legacy (again will he run?)
5)Butler’s Cabin?
6) Maybe Comply or Die for a place, but something tells me he isn’t going to win again is he?
#167
February 14th, 2009 11:12
Just out of interest when did you place the double. I’ve tried to place it on ladbrokes and paddy they both won’t let me, i then tried willhill and it was allowed but got the error message and then they refunded it.
Backed him tho ew for today in Haydock and if he wins i’l just lump the whole winnings on the best price i can get.
#168
February 14th, 2009 11:16
I am also on with Ladbrokes at 182/1 the double as I advised, and like Minty, have had nothing back from them, so looks OK. I understand that this is a related bet, but think it should still be honoured. At the end of the day, the prices taken are quoted by them, independently for each race. We are just taken each individual price and placing them in a double. Isn’t it the same as placing a double on Manchester Utd to win both the premiership and FA CUP?
Also, if the bet was not honoured, and stakes split as some suggest, would they, if Character Building ran a stinker (and drifts in the Grand National market), then offer the second half of the “single” at the revised GN odds? I think not! Therefore, the fact that one bet can have an impact on the other, should be irrelevant, as the bet is placed before either race takes place.
I must admit, on reviewing the race, COE still looks the fly in the ointment for all the National hopefuls! Still 182/1 looks good vlue to me!
#169
February 14th, 2009 11:16
Johnny
I placed the double last night.
#170
February 14th, 2009 11:24
cheers lads got it on with coral
haydock 7/1
national 20/1.
#171
February 14th, 2009 11:24
me too 8-30 last night.
#172
February 14th, 2009 11:27
and because i just signed up ive been given £20 free bet yes its all good
#173
February 14th, 2009 11:28
Re – doubles: my advice would be to get second absolutely clear clarification that bet is a double and that it will stand.
There’s nothing worse to spoil the fun of a market than wondering if bet will be voided – if it is you can moan, but won’t have a leg to stand on and when there will you be? I’d get each of your doubles verified by traders to be safe.
Re today can’t believe 2 of the big favs on this site Rambling and Character are running and I can’t wait
:)
#174
February 14th, 2009 11:38
Phoned Coral the Bet is a valid double YEAH
#175
February 14th, 2009 11:49
Wacky
“Just tried to find horses with a OR of 136-146 that has won a grade 1 that could fit the stats and found 2 which were Darkness and Cornish Sett(finished 12th last year)so the grade 1 stat may not be upheld this year”.
I think you got this wrong Wacky. We are looking for trend runners who have been placed (1/2/3) in a Class 1/G1 Chase.
Dan can you confirm and possibly update with your final version on these excellent stats (one of the best posts this year in my opinion)?
“In fact, for those who like 9/10 or 19/20 stats, only Montys Pass had not placed in a C1 race over a distance FURTHER than 3 miles”.
AND
“Right, the last ten winners have ALL finished in the TOP THREE in AT LEAST ONE C1/G1 CHASE prior to winning their Grand National”
Which runners with OR 136 to 146 fit the above two trends?
#176
February 14th, 2009 11:58
Another option today is a £10 bet of Character Building to win at 6/1 (or 13/2) and then lump on fast with the best revised price on the GN – you might jsut get 20/1 ig he wins (more like 16/1 best).
This would make £70 return (if CB wins today) at 20/1 = £1470 if CB wins GN. better than a void bet!
Personely I would put the £70 winnings (if BC wins that is)on Shameri in the 16.50 in Wincanton today at about 8/11 and if it wins you would have about £120 to put on BC for the GN (return then would be about £2520 at 20/1).
#177
February 14th, 2009 12:06
ThaiMark – a warning about Kilbeggan Blade – this horse has never shown any form in the Spring before – in fact its performances have been dismal – it is best in late Autumn / early Winter
Also Rambling Minster is best on Good ground and a Spring horse according to his trainer so his last time out performance, which equalled his highest RPR, is arguably even better for being on Good to Soft
Rambling Minster’s run behind Cloudy Lane and Comply Or Die in December 2007 at Haydock – when he was giving weight to both on Soft ground! – looks very good in light of how well the other two have run subsequently and their respective National handicap marks
Virtually guaranteed to get the trip, he must have a great chance in my opinion – the only problem is that he might lack a touch of class, but that didn’t stop Amberleigh House and both have Buckskin in their pedigree
Value bet
#178
February 14th, 2009 12:15
…added to which Rambling Mintser has never fallen in his career
Looks better and better each time I look at it
Hoping for a decent run today on ground it won’t fancy
#179
February 14th, 2009 12:22
Sorry Systemsman i had seen that 10/11 had won a grade 1 before winning at Aintree and the other was 2nd.This stat is worrying me as there are major holes in the majority of the field if we have to apply this stat.Maybe we will have to raise the bar on OR so we can find a horse with enough class to win the race?Preists Leap maybe?I’ve lumped on rambo so will have to put my prices up in the Chippie and cafe!!!
#180
February 14th, 2009 13:14
Been a bit worried about the bet i placed checked the coral website and they said
“In accumulative wagers where bet contingencies are related or where the same selection is taken to win more than one event, a combined price that reflects the relativity will be applied for settlement, regardless of any individual prices marked on the betting slip. In instances where a combined price cannot be applied the bet will be settled as singles dividing the total stake available proportionately amongst the selections.”
#181
February 14th, 2009 13:21
will kilbeggan blade definetely get in off a mark of 9-13 what is the predicted cut off mark
#182
February 14th, 2009 13:27
Sorry what i seem to be talking loads of tripe.
Rang coral again, they confirmed that the bet should have had a combined odds under normal circumstances but because they have taking the bet and the odds are quoted they will stand over it.
So for my 5ew if he wins in both races £922.50
#183
February 14th, 2009 15:02
Rambling Monster – price dropped massively
Brilliant jumping
#184
February 14th, 2009 15:05
Yeees! Just had a fiver on Rambling Minister, £75 Get in…
Not a huge win but a win all the same.
#185
February 14th, 2009 15:05
GO RAMBLING – THIS YEAR’S COMPLY OR DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
#186
February 14th, 2009 15:06
Systemsman Says:
February 14th, 2009 at 11:49 am
Wacky
“Just tried to find horses with a OR of 136-146 that has won a grade 1 that could fit the stats and found 2 which were Darkness and Cornish Sett(finished 12th last year)so the grade 1 stat may not be upheld this year”.
I think you got this wrong Wacky. We are looking for trend runners who have been placed (1/2/3) in a Class 1/G1 Chase.
Dan can you confirm and possibly update with your final version on these excellent stats (one of the best posts this year in my opinion)?
“In fact, for those who like 9/10 or 19/20 stats, only Montys Pass had not placed in a C1 race over a distance FURTHER than 3 miles”.
AND
“Right, the last ten winners have ALL finished in the TOP THREE in AT LEAST ONE C1/G1 CHASE prior to winning their Grand National”
Which runners with OR 136 to 146 fit the above two trends?
Thanks for the kind words!! You’ll have to forgive me, my stats are all on another pc I dont have access to today. BUT I will give you the list on Monday
#187
February 14th, 2009 15:08
had a tenner on rambling wahooo !!!!! character building blundered badly about 3 out. right through it
#188
February 14th, 2009 15:09
Well done for all those brave enough to get on Rambling Minster at 40/1 for the GN before today. Looked like he would stay even further, jumped beautifully and no rightly challening for favourtism for the GN.
I managed to get on at 23/1 in running on Betfair. Laid off my Charcter Building bet as well for the smallest of profits.
Rambling Minster, Butlers Cabin and Parsons Legacy would be my 3 if the race were today now.
#189
February 14th, 2009 15:12
Wacky – you can flog the Chippie in April and get that Casino
#190
February 14th, 2009 15:15
Yes that was very impressive,not on it yet but i’m off to ladbrokes to take some of the 25s they’re still offering!
#191
February 14th, 2009 15:16
Now who doubts RAMBLING MINSTER is not good enough to win the national? I have been taking big odds about this horse for a while now.
#192
February 14th, 2009 15:18
phew I went for Rambling just in time! for the national I mean, was seconds late for this race and just went for the main event after seeing him start jumping a couple. Although CB was tempting, Rambling looked to have the keen attitude and great fluid movement. Happy he won as big tick in stats terms,
really impressive.
#193
February 14th, 2009 15:23
that was pretty impressive stuff from rambling minster . he absolutely cruised round there . i must admit i did not think he was good enough to win a nat before today but i have to say that was top stuff. hell go onto my shortlist after that although i suspect all the value will have gone now .very reminiscent of comply or die last year..!
#194
February 14th, 2009 15:23
Already on Rambling for GN, happy with that £75 win today.
Just got Voy Por aswell in my Neptune Collonges Double.
Won a football bet aswell. Im on a roll.
#195
February 14th, 2009 15:33
COME ON RAMBO!!!! Its won a Grade 1 race if im not mistaken.Only request now is can it be the 4th april 2mrw!!!Got 110′s,100′s 80′s 40′s and just phoned Ladbrokes and took 25′s!!Who is coming to the MALDIVES with Jane,Ricky,Bianca and ME?Sleep well RAMBO you have a date with destiny…….
#196
February 14th, 2009 15:36
HTE Unseated today at gowran park
#197
February 14th, 2009 15:51
Well, what a race today!
I am slightly disappointed with Character dropping off like that. He hit one of the fences and got bumped but no excuse really. I felt today was going to be his day to shine but that didn’t materialise. Shame. But if he is balloted out of the race I get my ante post money back so not too bad. He is still a talented horse and could still bounce back.
As for Rambling Minster, what a performance. Jumped very well and seemed to cruise to the front and win well. Must have a huge shout now for Aintree. Low weight and fit the trends. He now has the key top 3 finish in a C1 race and has 3 or more chase wins above 3 miles. I don’t really see where there is a fault in his trends.
I have taken some of the 25/1 so now my two Ante Post tickets that I have on are…
Character Building @ 25/1
Rambling Minster @ 25/1
I think I will leave it now until nearer the day.
#198
February 14th, 2009 15:53
60 on rambling at 20/1 ….. must be having a mad day
#199
February 14th, 2009 15:54
thats for the national not today hahaha or i’d be in the pub
#200
February 14th, 2009 16:05
Ah well alls not lost got a £20 free bet so that all going on Rambling eachway
Had him at 40/1 in middle of week cheers Showlad
#201
February 14th, 2009 16:06
Keith Reveley will now aim Rambling Minster at the Grand National following his fine staying performance in the Blue Square Gold Cup Chase at Haydock.
The trainer said “He’s not really a heavy ground horse
but James walked the course and found a good strip of ground up the straight”
“He will go for the National now, he’s got 10st 1 lb its a lovely racing weight and he is a brilliant jumper.”
Get yourselves down to Ladbrokes and snap up the 25-1
whilst you still can!
#202
February 14th, 2009 16:18
Well Johnny you’re welcome – I did say fill your boots
Wacky – thanks – that quote from the horses mouth really is the icing on the cake!!
Straight to the National now – Go RAMBO!!!!
#203
February 14th, 2009 16:27
Just shut the chippie and told jane to shut the cafe,im in need of a stiff drink!!But don’t worry ‘I’LL BE BACk’
#204
February 14th, 2009 16:29
Got 40-1 after 2 fences jumped, lucky. But I only play with pocket money, wish I’d had more on! spose still looks bargain at 25s.
Looks like possibly justified not to get swept up with HTE, regardless of weight, dare I say, another unseated someone said today?
RAMBO! VERY Comply or Die, (shame COD scoped badly and didn’t run here, as I refuse to give up on him! wanted to see his post weights blinkered return before deciding.) Rambling was so like him tho, the ease and going round the outside, staying on too, EASY!!! In terms of others, no eyecatchers as mesmerised by Rambo!
Miko the only other one to take or does he fail on an important stat? noone even mentioned him, has unseated twice recently? like HTE would like to see how and why. any other black marks? although its enough for me.
Nadover didn’t suprise me, one of those extremely unlikely to get in GN, shame for him I think as definate place potential, why didn’t Phil help this one in!!! connections must be annoyed with BCs unfair boost! he finished last year aged 7 in 7th! Cornish, Mon Mone didn’t get going, disappointing.
#205
February 14th, 2009 16:39
I’ve just watched Rambo’s last two runs before that monstrous demolition job today – at Sandown he was staying on nicely and needed more than the 3m 5f in the London National and at Cheltenham he stayed really well up the hill – today he showed he could do it on a flat left-handed course with stiff fences (like Aintree) on ground that he doesn’t favour
What was really impressive in all three runs was his near faultless jumping and the way he travels so sweetly in his races
Plus his jockey gets on really well with him and its the father/ son combo like Carberry in 1999 and Walsh in 2000
Took the 40s on Betfair earlier in the week and I have been to Laddies twice already since the race and I’m going to lump more on online
I think the only thing that can stop him is if Exotic Dancer runs and something classy carrying 11 stone or so puts in the performance of its life and breaks the trends (Cane Brake, King Johns Castle, Snowy Morning or Comply Or Die) or if State of Play reproduces his Hennessy form
The rest are running for place money at best
25/1 looks like bet of the season right now
Can anybody convince me otherwise?
#206
February 14th, 2009 16:41
Guys ladbrokes alone sitting at 25s on RAMBO – I would go for it!!
Even if he’s not your fancy, he could still be a great lay-off for you – I think he’ll go off at 7 or 8 to 1 favourite on the Day.
#207
February 14th, 2009 16:49
oh!!! you’re right showlad he’ll prob go off fav!
but I don’t like backin favourites,
well it isn’t yet! so think I should, always gutted when I win every year and win relatively so little.
#208
February 14th, 2009 17:01
I haven’t been here or had my computer working since this new page really, can’t believe its upto 200 posts already! it all looks good open reassessment, loving it! and now we may have found our winner! going to have few more quid (just a few) at 25s ontop of my 40s, he is THE low weighted one for me!
Like Pablo said, something around 11stone with class is the slight worry, but we can find that too! My Will has come in again I’ve noticed, any reason? is this because of his jumping or is he stated a definate runner?
#209
February 14th, 2009 17:16
Revised list after today and HTE unseating rider ..
Cant see any horse turning up at aintree with form figures- 556u and then winning the national ..
Rambling Minsters win puts him right in the mix – well done to u lads and lasses already on at fancy prices . i will invest right away..!
1. Southern Vic
2. State of Play
3. Rambling Minster
4. Himalayan Trail
5 .Garde Champetre
6 .Butlers Cabin
Fancy Fun bet – Reveillez
#210
February 14th, 2009 17:22
Betfred are only 14′s on RAMBO!!Lets hope that Butlers cabin is fav for the race on the day!!
#211
February 14th, 2009 17:23
I think a new important fact as I tried to express at the end of the last thread, FEB 11TH at 636 is a higher TS.
According to systemsmans stat he/we have been using
TS has to be 111 and preferably over 128 (7/11)
I looked into this and unless I am confused but don’t think I am,
Bindaree had the lowest winning TS by some way in the last 10 yrs of 129!
this is a classier race now! does the bar need raising? Rambling has good enough TS, Kilbeggan does not!
#212
February 14th, 2009 17:40
my ante posts o far on looking through this thread and the other one:
in no order :
1. butlers cabin
2. hear the echo … bad move i now think
3. rambling minister
4. state of play
the horse that just gives you that funny feeling when you see its name
5. parsons legacy
#213
February 14th, 2009 17:43
sounds like war of attrition may head to aintree
i reckon there are only 3 at the top end of the handicap that can win this
War of Attrition
State of Play
My Will
The boys down at the bottom end their biggest threat comes from these three above methinks
#214
February 14th, 2009 17:53
I am on 4 now, can I stick to 6 max?
in backing order
Black Aps- oh dear
Cornish- its not over!
Garde Champ- hope you’re reading connections,
great chance! he CAN win at cheltenham
then can win this too.
Rambling Minster- as Led Zep said “rambo on”
#215
February 14th, 2009 18:20
just started to calm down after that great performance by rambling minster. Bets so far-
rambling minster at 300s 130s and 114s
my will at 25s and 33s
mon mome at 55s
chelsea harbour at 75s
butlers cabin at 20s ( only because of systemsman )
irish raptor – non runner
Am starting to feel giddy and still 6/7 weeks to go.
#216
February 14th, 2009 18:25
Well done Pablo. You were spot on with Rambling Minster. But looking at other contenders I can’t yet rule out Himalayan Trail. And with regards to Kilbeggan Blade it does look like he runs his best races in the depth of winter – not a Spring runner but I can’t ignore the fact that he gave Rambling Minster a 4.5L whipping when 6lbs better off in the GN weights!
#217
February 14th, 2009 18:30
Well i’ve now got some sorting out to do as my current bets are:
Butlers Cabin – Small insurance bet put on in january
HTE – Medium bet put on in January (Need a replacement for this one now)
Garde Champetre – Big bet Pre weights
Rambling Minster – Big bet Pre race today
Now for my replacement for HTE. Will be looking at State of Play, Himalayan trail and Parsons legacy in more depth now (already used a free bet for Himalayan Trail)
Not sure i need to rush into putting any of these bets on now tho as im sure what value is left on them will last that bit longer so im happy to sit back and wait til the end of Feb after the 1st declaration stage and possibly til after cheltenham
Then it will be time to look for that big outsider bet.
#218
February 14th, 2009 18:43
Just been on the forum on betfair and Rambo is on everyones lips.If you want the 25′s you had better be quick as i don’t think it will last the night!!Its under 20′s on betfair so the other bookies will be feeling the pinch soon!!Im going to see what rating and speed figure its got after that stroll in the (haydock)park.Anyone want to back any of the front ten(except rambo)with me on betfair please?
#219
February 14th, 2009 18:54
Trying to figure out which horse can beat Rambo…
Quite a long list – but these are the ones that I reckon to be well handicapped on best form (other than Rambo the Monster that is)
War Of Attrition (former Gold Cup winner – the sort that you’d kick yourself if it won)
Snowy Morning (needs to show some form)
Monkerhostin (French bred – old dog – give up if this wins)
My Will (French bred but have a nagging doubt that this one might win – will make up my mind on the day)
State of Play (everything in its favour)
Reveillez (off the course for a long while and pulled up on comeback run – but worth small change at 200/1)
Endless Power (don’t believe this will stay but we shall see in Racing Post Chase next Saturday)
L’Ami (French – tried and failed before)
Simon (will he make it past Valentine’s second time around?)
Battlecry (watching brief on this one – great run behind Big Bucks at Aintree last year but erratic jumper)
Darkness (off injured for a while but given chance by handicapper)
Silverburn (Denman’s brother but doubtful stayer in my opinion – looked knackered in RSA last year at Cheltenham)
Southern Vic (trainer knows how to place his horses – worry is Strong Gale in breeding – might not stay)
Trabolgan (very well in but injured)
Garde Champetre (French, not sure what to make of cross country races – will make my mind up after Cheltenham)
Oedipe (French, 7 years old)
Bets so far:
Rambo @ 40/1 (Betfair) and 25/1 at Laddies
State of Play (average 83 at Betfair)
Simon (average 39 at Betfair)
Plus small fun bets on a few 100/1 to 300/1 shots
#220
February 14th, 2009 19:06
Well i think as far as my final list is concerned,
Rambling Minster
state of play(still needs a run)
simon(needs to be placed over 25f before race)
parsons legacy(needs at least 1 run before race)
I have been waiting for Todays race and it answered a lot of questions for me regarding Rambling Minster, Mon Mome, Character Building and Cornish Sett and other form lines through them.
And i think that i could be forgiven for saying that i think i have seen the winner of the 2009 Grand National in full glory today, the way he ran all the way on the outside and taking up the running a circuit from home and the fluent jumping just seemed to have a touch of class about it, a touch of class that told me to go out and get as much 25/1 as The magic sign could offer me
For most of this horses jumping career he has lumped weight around the mid 11st mark and even allowing for a hike in the national weights he will carry just under a stone less in the National than he has raced with in the last year.
After todays performance carrying 11.3 in that ground 10.01 for the National looks very generous indeed.
I will back the others in my list as savers just in case a mis-hap does occur but for me i am quite happy that i have seen the winner and don’t think that i will be looking elsewhere.
So my friends with 25/1 still on offer the magic sign should be calling us all.
#221
February 14th, 2009 19:16
kj Says:
February 14th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
I think a new important fact as I tried to express at the end of the last thread, FEB 11TH at 636 is a higher TS.
According to systemsmans stat he/we have been using
TS has to be 111 and preferably over 128 (7/11)
I looked into this and unless I am confused but don’t think I am,
Bindaree had the lowest winning TS by some way in the last 10 yrs of 129!
this is a classier race now! does the bar need raising? Rambling has good enough TS, Kilbeggan does not!
Hi KJ, Think i might have the answer for you on the TS thing.
I could be mistaken but it looks like you’ve been looking at the TS they won the national in and not the TS prior to the national they won.
#222
February 14th, 2009 19:23
Hi Admin,I owe you a big apology as i didn’t THANK YOU for moving the blog so i could see what the others were saying.So Thank you very much and if your ever in the westcountry i will get you a few beers!!I think my time in prison has been very good as backing RAMBO at all rates from 110′s -25′s has been a god send and its very satisfying that i found RAMBO without any help.Time to take the girlfriend for a ruby and i may let her have FRENCH FRIES im that happy!! cheers Ian(rambo)Beale
#223
February 14th, 2009 19:25
HAPPY VALENTINE’S GUYS & GIRLS.
#224
February 14th, 2009 20:02
thanks Brian, think may be true the TSs I posted were GN TSs, but I also looked at lifetime TS in a chase stats. Would be grateful if someone would look into this again…Brian?
Still think I have something here, just looking quickly at COD eider win last year TS 150.
I can’t see horses like Kilbeggan winning anymore because of low TS stat, maybe if he ploughs them into the ground in heavy mud!!! haa! just looked at sporting life site and uses same words “ploughing through the mud” for Rambos win today. Does anyone think the grond was THAT testing? if so makes Rambo look even harder!!! would have to be even muddier for horses like kilbeggan to beat horses with TSs of 140s and 150s, no!
#225
February 14th, 2009 20:21
when Kilbeggan beat Rambling at sandown on dec6, the ground looked extremely testing if I remember correctly and Kilbeggan just kept ploughing away until he was in front in the end, Rambling never got into it that day, possibly as truely testing heavy! Every horse has their limit on the various heavys I think. So can’t rule out Mon Mome and Cornish in better ground. TSs in the race at sandown were for Killer 124 and Rambo 120. Haven’t seen todays TS stats, but Rambo seemed to motor in what sporting life is calling mud plough conditions!!
#226
February 14th, 2009 20:47
My top 3 for the National:-
1. Rambling Minster (backed at 40/1)
2. Himalayan Trail (backed at 33/1)
3. State of Play (backed at 33/1)
I don’t stick rigidly to the stats, as I allow a bit of lee-way for horses that I believe have the form/class to win. But these 3 definitely come out well all round.
Re RAMBO – is it a bit worrying that he won today? When did the last GN winner go into the race off the back of 2 wins? I had been hoping he would just get placed really.
#227
February 14th, 2009 20:53
come on stats man we are all on a high with Rambo….don’t go putting doubts in our minds.
Hold your nerve and it will come to those who wait
#228
February 14th, 2009 21:15
Lord Gyllene won 3 in season of National win and won by 25 lengths
Rambo puts in best 2 performances of career to 1) win to get in the race off 10’1 and 2) win again after weights out – how can that be a bad thing?
#229
February 14th, 2009 21:34
Hate to brake up the party but I think many are getting carried away with Rambo – lets have a little cool assessment.
Yes he is in my eight against the field:
Garde Champetre
Southern Vic
Himalayan Trail
Darkness (the “Dark” horse in the GN)
Rambling Minster
Kilbeggan Blade
Rambling Minster
Butlers Cabin
And Character Building is now dropped from my watch list (no hope now I think).
But and its a big but
There will be other Class 1 winners between now and GN day so dont lets get too carried away.
How may days to GN day?(is the win not just outside the 50 days for a last prep run?[should he not run again that is]
Two wins in a row in GN season!(strange profile – peeking too early?)
Am I the only one who thought he looked knackered towards the end (OK he had a very good excuse carried 11.03 in Heavy) – extra mile in GN though!
Having said all that OR 143 and 10.01 in National!! Must be on any short list.
#230
February 14th, 2009 21:51
For me Systemsman he is the first horse thats fits in snugly with all requirements, for the past 2 weeks i have scoured the entries but nothing seemed to fit nicely untill today…..yes you are quite right there will be some c1 winners between now and national day but will they be as impressive?
There are 49 days between today and April the 4th Saturday the 4th being the 49th day so all is well.
I disagree with what you say about him looking knackered, i have re watched the race and concidering the ground i thought he looked very fresh…. if he looks as tired 2nd time round as he jumps valentines i will be a very happy man.
#231
February 14th, 2009 21:58
Nice to see you have Rambling Minster twice in your list systems
He deserves it, ha ha!
It’s 49 days until the National so he sneaks in that stat
And as mentioned Lord Gyllene did have more than one win in his National winning season, so it is possible.
Just looking at Kilbeggan Blade again, it’s raced 3 times in long distance C1 chases and PU every time. Plus it seems to go off the boil in Spring. Doesn’t look too healthy to me.
#232
February 14th, 2009 22:34
Stephen dont get me wrong this is my post on 31st Jan:
“January 31st, 2009 at 7:13 pm
alanham thank you – greta work. How did I miss Rambling Minster? who by the way has a perfect score of
9ABC*
He is OR 135 up to OR143 now (will he be able to handle any extra weight with a RPR of 147 best – its OK but I would prefer 149 +++ or at least one RPR 150 or more). However he must be placed in our short list. Did I miss any others?
Checked his price which is between 25/1 and 40/1 so that looks good for this time of year as well. I will be having some of that 40/1!”
He also fits the Pre Chritmas winners profile but was overlooked by me (must never make that mistake again but I did have 120+ runners to cover in detail!!), but should have been in the list meeting all the requirements(Post Dec 18th 2008: Can we find the 2009 winner – YES we can!).
So he is in the very short list but there will be others.
Just for interest these were the Pre Chritmas winning trends selections – with Rambo added now(all the last ten GN winners had met the trends (see Dec18th post)prior to Xmas!! – amazing is it not?
In no order (with some new notes):
1. Butlers Cabin – good chance
2. Himalayan Trail – good chance
3. Black Apalachi – too much weight now
4. Darkness – needs run and win.
5. Garde Champetre – good cahnce
6. Parsons Legacy – chance – still watching
7. King Harold – not looking so good
8. Kilbeggan Blade – good chance
9. Chelsea Harbour – unlikely now
10. Southern Vic – good chance
11. L Ami – unlikely
12. Rambling Minster- good chance!!
Now thats what i call a good list for December 2008 and the winner may well be in there.
#233
February 14th, 2009 22:41
Keith Reveley had said before Rambo won today that he wanted to get 2 runs into the horse before Aintree.But ‘Ran between 20 and 49 days ago’ still fits the stats.Its time to be calm now and alot of water has to run under the bridge before the big day.If the only fault we can find is that Rambo has won two on the trot and it fits every other stat then feel the force and keep steaming in!!!Im hoping to lay off at around 10′s on the day and still show a very nice profit.French Fries anyone?
#234
February 14th, 2009 22:55
Yes it was a good win today but time for everyboby to calm down,i wasn’t on it today but i’ve had a wee bit on it now,well done if you were on today but its not won the nat has it?
#235
February 14th, 2009 23:01
This blog yesterday found a 23/23 trend, top 3 place in grade 1 (possibly even longer, does anybody know anything about Hallo Dandy!! and that Greenall Whitley chase that Lucius was placed in, see earlier post, is now this Haydock Park Gold Cup!) Adding this to the winner profile, top 5 Hennessey, top 3 Irish/Scots/ Welsh Nat, top 2 in a race over GN fences and current trends though not applying prep runs at the moment as we dont know how many prep runs they will have had come big day,
** in the last 30 yrs three horse have won with 3 prep runs or less,two winners in the last 19 yrs have had more than six**
These horses OR 150 or less, are currently spot on and I’m still including Frenchies (Rambling’s dam sire is Buckskin and he is French!) Vive la difference. .
OR is National rating.
1.Himlayan Trail 138 – 3x24f+ chase wins including 1 at 28f+ / two non finishes this season small negative.
2.Brooklyn Brownie 140 – 2nd over GN fences, has won over 24f chase/ a low highest ever OR, not raced further than 24f so stamina question but good bloodline -Lafontaine is dam sire(Papillon’s dad)
3.Hot Weld 141 – Scots Nat winner /not raced yet but neither had Miinnehoma at this time in ’94.
4.Rambling Minster 143 – 3x24f+ chase wins including 1 at 28f / if he doesn’t run again will be attempting a three timer
5.Cornish Sett 144 – 2nd Welsh Nat / an unplaced horse hasn’t come back to win following season since ’76.
6.L’Ami 145 – 2nd in Hennessey / unplaced and fell in previous Nationals though Little Polveir unplaced and fell and unseated in late eighties
7.Parsons Legacy 146 – 5th Hennessey, 3rd Scots Nat / seems fragile and pulled out last year
8.Silver Birch 148 – won Welsh Nat, becher chase / only one horse has won more than won National since the war
9.State Of Play 150 – won Hennessey / not very big and a weight rise could finish his chances
close…..
1.Garde Champetre 140, 3x24f+ chases including 1 at 28f+ /
needs top 3 place in Grade 1
2.Character Building 140, needs to win Grade 2, or higher, chase
3.*Southern Vic 143, hasn’t won since 06 but has been injured, similar profile to Specify ’71
4.*Darkness 143, pulled up in Welsh/Scots Nat but did finish 3rd in Sun Alliance
5*Simon 145, fell and unseated in previous Nationals though Little Polveir did this in late eighties/ best chance in Natonal to date as last winning OR was 143 and has come down from 152
*ideally need a chase win over 28f, Red Rum ’73 and Lucius ’78 most recent winners not to finish, top 5 Hennessey etc or win at 28f.
#236
February 14th, 2009 23:13
In last post didn’t include
Kilbeggan Blade 141, 3x24f+ chase wins 1at 28f+ who needs a top 3 grade 1 place
Highland Wedding ’69 last winner to come here on a run of victories, his National win was his fourth in a row.
#237
February 14th, 2009 23:42
Posted this again,
This blog yesterday found a 23/23 trend, top 3 place in grade 1 (possibly even longer, does anybody know anything about Hallo Dandy!! and that Greenall Whitley chase that Lucius was placed in, see earlier post, is now this Haydock Park Gold Cup!) Adding this to the winner profile, top 5 Hennessey, top 3 Irish/Scots/ Welsh Nat, top 2 in a race over GN fences and current trends though not applying prep runs at the moment as we dont know how many prep runs they will have had come big day,
** in the last 30 yrs three horse have won with 3 prep runs or less,two winners in the last 19 yrs have had more than six**
These horses OR 150 or less, are currently spot on and I’m still including Frenchies (Rambling’s dam sire is Buckskin and he is French!) Vive la difference. .
OR is National rating.
1.Himlayan Trail 138 – 3×24f+ chase wins including 1 at 28f+ / two non finishes this season small negative.
2.Brooklyn Brownie 140 – 2nd over GN fences, has won over 24f chase/ a low highest ever OR, not raced further than 24f so stamina question but good bloodline -Lafontaine is dam sire(Papillon’s dad)
3.Hot Weld 141 – Scots Nat winner /not raced yet but neither had Miinnehoma at this time in ‘94.
4.Rambling Minster 143 – 3×24f+ chase wins including 1 at 28f / if he doesn’t run again will be attempting a three timer
5.Cornish Sett 144 – 2nd Welsh Nat / an unplaced horse hasn’t come back to win following season since ‘76.
6.L’Ami 145 – 2nd in Hennessey / unplaced and fell in previous Nationals though Little Polveir unplaced and fell and unseated in late eighties
7.Parsons Legacy 146 – 5th Hennessey, 3rd Scots Nat / seems fragile and pulled out last year
8. Butlers Cabin 147 – won Irish Nat / out of form
9.Silver Birch 148 – won Welsh Nat, becher chase / only one horse has won more than won National since the war
10.State Of Play 150 – won Hennessey / not very big and a weight rise could finish his chances
close…..
1.Garde Champetre 140, 3×24f+ chases including 1 at 28f+ /
needs top 3 place in Grade 1
2.Character Building 140, needs to win Grade 2, or higher, chase
3. Kilbeggan Blade 141, 3×24f+ chase wins 1at 28f+ / needs a top 3 grade 1 place
4.*Southern Vic 143, hasn’t won since 06 but has been injured, similar profile to Specify ‘71
5.*Darkness 143, pulled up in Welsh/Scots Nat but did finish 3rd in Sun Alliance
6*Simon 145, fell and unseated in previous Nationals though Little Polveir did this in late eighties/ best chance in Natonal to date as last winning OR was 143 and has come down from 152
*ideally need a chase win over 28f, Red Rum ‘73 and Lucius ‘78 most recent winners not to finish, top 5 Hennessey etc or win at 28f.
#238
February 15th, 2009 00:44
surely darkness need to prove something before being on a shortlist 3rd and pu since reappearing after 2 years????
#239
February 15th, 2009 01:56
I’ve got Himalayan Trail as my 2nd choice, and he could be the one, assuming he gets in the race. Will have a low weight (around 10-3?), has winning form over 4m 2f, Won a Class 1 race £57k, OR 140, is right age (10-y-o), etc.
Also he has run over hurdles a couple of time this season which could be a plus.
I know he pulled up last time out, but if he were to run a decent race between now and the big one his price would surely crash.
Anyone got a stat that would put you off Himalayan?? Would be grateful for advice!
#240
February 15th, 2009 02:23
Alrite fellas,
I wrote on this blog last year, and was the one who had severe doubts over D’Argent, and tipped Comply or Die and Snowy Morning (which Wacky and a few others heavily mocked me for!)
Having looked at this race, there is one horse i really like and can’t see past as the winner and its NOT Rambling Minster (or Rambo)
My tip is HOT WELD. This horse has bags of stamina and has won constantly shone over the longer distances. Winner of 2006 NH chase, Scottish National and Betfred Gold Cup. At the moment, carrying only 9st 13 which will rise a little when Exotic Dancer pulls out. However, Hot Weld will be getting weight from his opponents.
#241
February 15th, 2009 05:16
Hi all
Great work so far. Shame I dint compile my shortlist before todays race as it appears Rambling Minster would have been on it and therefore wouldve got better value than Ive had to take today. Got £15 on at lads at 25s with a view to laying out at 10-11/1 come the day. I follow most of the trends you have all described and great spot on the “top 3 in a class 1 chase” by the way! Like you say, got to be reasonably careful with that as a few have only got the 1 top 3. So if anything really good hasn’t then won’t discount it 100%.
Slightly worried that this year could just be a little different -with much better horses being entered than previous. So going to allow some margin for faults if any horses stand out but don’t quite fit certain patterns.
And still worried with what happened last year with King Johns Castle. I went heavy on CoD after his superb ‘top weight’ performance in the Eider last year and it paid off. But if he had fallen say, a horse that failed on many of our trends would have won it in KJC. Just worries me slightly that things are changing.
Anyways, I hope to compile my shortlist before next weekend and I would assume it will contain the same types that have been mentioned here.
Keep up the good work
Ells
1
#242
February 15th, 2009 10:16
Hi Russell, Welcome back to the blog and im sorry if i upset you last year.The reason i had doubts about COD was that no horse had won the eider and then won at Aintree.Im only doing my best to give a view that can help and i put my hands up if i got it wrong.So now im very confident that you have got it wrong this year with Hot Weld.Why pick a horse that hasn’t run this season when most national winners have had 4 runs before the big day?Also do you think it will be good/firm on the day? I have a strong trend for today in the HCGC at Leop and that is the last ten winners have won over CD so Notre Pere looks a good bet @4/1 today and maybe good value for the gold cup @25/1.
#243
February 15th, 2009 11:12
Well its all be said on Rambling Minster – glad I put my money where my mouth was on Friday night.
Lets keep an eye on the Eider and the Grimthorpe before we go overboard tho!
#244
February 15th, 2009 13:14
I have been looking at the career form of Butlers Cabin and would like some opinions on this.
If you look at the form prior to the Irish National Win most of its runs were on left handed tracks;
Left Handed – 10 runs (2,4,3,3,1,1,4,3,10,1).
Right handed tracks – 4 runs (2,3,7,1).
It won the Irish National on a right handed track but since then, apart from its fall in the National last year (when going very well – on left handed track) it has only been raced on right handed tracks (other than hurdle race at Newbury on 28.11.08).
It has not had a prep chase on on a left handed track and was wondering whether its form has not been very good.
Just something to think about……
#245
February 15th, 2009 13:50
Great work guys and girls
Suppose most impressive thing for me was Rambo’s style and stamina yest: Good position early and then held at front few for most of race and then came Coe’s late challenge – Rambo stayed with it and then destroyed him with a further switch in gears (really don’t know where you got your view that Rambo was tiring Systems).
Little fav today (w/o getting in French debate) – What do we make of My Will’s chances? Saw him on return run and was v impressive? Would appreciate if anyone has in depth view on him and duly posted it up.
PS Silver Birch – where did you get info that looks likely War may run?
#246
February 15th, 2009 14:05
SHOWLAD totally agree with you dont know where systems gets the “knackered” at the end on ramblings race from.totally gob smacked me and that is only because i nearly always agree with or see his point of views.must admit i am on at 40s and that is mainly due to someone on here stating to get on before sats race because of what has now happened,but he was on my list but i would have waited i am sure,so a big thanks to ever.IT WASN’T BEALE thats for sure.to be honest i thought the opposite i remember saying to her in doors how well he looked at the end,he looked class to me even more so than c.o.d last year.
#247
February 15th, 2009 14:37
Howdi Showlad – here u go … by no means definite but dont be surprised if the war shows up…
from last nights racing post
WAR OF ATTRITION could be bound for the John Smith’s Grand National after trainer Mouse Morris said on Saturday that therace was ” definitely on the agenda ” for the 2006 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner.
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However plans for Hear The Echo, trained by Morris for War Of Attrition’s owner Michael O’Leary, are less certain after last year’s Irish Grand National winner unseated Davy Russell two out in the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park.
Morris said: “War Of Attrition goes for the Gold Cup next month and obviously a lot will depend on how he comes out of Cheltenham.
“But he’s been fairly treated for the National and there is every chance that he will go to Aintree.”
#248
February 15th, 2009 14:47
Just a couple of points folks …
I think its fair to say that most of us are all congregating around the same horses now and have loaded up at the local turf accountants respectively on the folowing :
rambling,vic,himalayan,state of play ,butlers,kilbeggan ,garde
however ive detected that although evbody happy with their lot , that we all keep peering up to the top end of the handicap at the big boys and wonder / fret which ones could possibly burst our happy bubble
for what its worth i think systems man and crisps list def contain the winner and we are all on the right track but who are the trend busters who could thrown the spanners in the works
i think the following three horses still worry me and could go mighty close just through their class coming to the fore
War of Attrition , Miko de Beauchene, My Will
It may be worth having a saver on these especially nearer the time if jonjo starts making noises about running exotic dancer.
Nevertheless happy where i am at the mo although need to load up a bit more on the minster now …
#249
February 15th, 2009 14:58
Just a few things about Rambling Minster. As I said earlier Highland Wedding was the last horse, I think, to win on the back of a run of victories and coincidentally was the last,before COD, to win the Eider!
Keith Reveley, Minster’s trainer has said that the horse might now go to straight to Aintree which is fine by me because Hedgehunter and COD won a chase in their last prep and they had seven and six weeks respectively to recover.
#250
February 15th, 2009 15:14
Your right Ryme no Reason i didn’t tell you to lump on Rambo,cause its the only horse i’ve backed and i wanted to snap up all the 40′s i could before the price crashed!!Need all the money i can get with a wife,two kids and a FAGGOT to look after!!!!!!!Got all day brekfast on specials today with French fries!!!IAN BEALE .-)
#251
February 15th, 2009 15:19
Just a quick 2 sec post..
Just to say guys this very sec the 25s on Rambo Monster lol, have gone from Lads…20s or lower now…
ROCK ON RAMBO!!!!
#252
February 15th, 2009 15:27
I’m on
Rambling Minister at 40s and 20s
Garde 33s
Kilbeggan 40s
Looking for another two. Love the horse hot weld i have always said he will the national one day but since his injury would like to see him run first before i put my money on him.
Others I like are Mon Mome and Fundamentalist has anyone any view on these two
#253
February 15th, 2009 15:50
Silver Birch – agree about War – I’ve had a small saver on him – if he lines up he’ll be a lot shorter I reckon
Showlad – just looked at My Will again – his run behind Madison in the Hennessy was encouraging but I think there are plenty of doubts about this one:
1) He was off the track for 18 months before the Hennessy and hasn’t run since
2) Before his spell off the track he’d been a regular runner running 8 or 9 times over fences each season and very consistently – perhaps a tad too high in the weights to win because he’s been so consistent?
3) I’d want to see him run again before backing him at 20/1 – way too short for me for a French Bred coming back from a long lay-off
Re: Simon – looked at this one again and traded out – he needs another run before I’m interested – doesn’t look value compared with Rambo
#254
February 15th, 2009 15:55
Dan – Re: Butler’s Cabin – I don’t know what’s going on there – trainer appears to do things his way – looked at last year’s National again and yes he was going well but so were a good few others (COD, Snowy Morning, KJC, Slim Pickings, Bewleys Berry etc etc) – effectively off the same OR in National this year of 147 (lower racing weight because better horses lining up in 2009) and I can see something being better handicapped or with more class beating him
#255
February 15th, 2009 16:47
Connections of Miko De Beauchene are eyeing the totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup after his pleasing display at Haydock on Saturday.
The 2007 Welsh National winner turned in a fine weight-carrying performance when third in the Blue Square Gold Cup, a race he won 12 months ago but off an 8lb lower mark. Robert and Sally Alner’s nine-year-old showed enough promise on Merseyside to now come under consideration for the Gold Cup on March 13.
“We’ve yet to speak to the owners, but I was speaking to Sally and she’s very keen to go for the Gold Cup and give it a crack,” regular pilot Andrew Thornton told At The Races.
“He’s at the right age and the Gold Cup is very much up in the air at the moment.
“He’s going to be a 100-1 chance, but if ground conditions come up really soft you need a horse that’s going to get up the hill.
Thornton was unseated by Miko De Beauchene on his previous two starts and reflected: “It was nice to have a little bit of luck with him.
“He was staying on at the finish and he should improve again.”
#256
February 15th, 2009 17:13
In the cold light of day can we look at Rambo’s good and bad points. A few have got carried away I think (yes he is on my short list too).
As I pointed out yesterday he will not be the only Class 1 Chase winner between now and GN day.
Now if he goes straight to the GN when was the last time a horse had this profile (just a bit odd dont you think)?
1st, 1st and 1st(Grand National if he wins)? Crisp how long ago was Highland Wedding?
Like Gammers said “Lets keep an eye on the Eider and the Grimthorpe before we go overboard tho!”
Now I am going to look at that video of Rambo’s win again and again and will report back later.
Anyone else have any doubts at all or is it all sown up already (I dont think so, I really dont)?
#257
February 15th, 2009 17:38
Next Saturday we have:
Racing Post Chase at Kempton
Eider Chase at Newcastle
Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse
Should be a few more pointers & hopefully be able to rule out a few more as well
#258
February 15th, 2009 17:43
The way Rambling has improved since last race
( racing off OR of 122 last year, i think ? )
I would say he will be the first National winner to go there with 2 prev wins in a row .
This horse looks a Monster machine * glad to be on at 110, 44 and 20′s .
#259
February 15th, 2009 17:59
Systemsman because Rambling minster is going into the national with form firures of 1st,1st i see it as no bad thing it goes to show that a horse is at the top of his game at present.
Sure no recent horse has gone into the national with such form but it really is not a stat that has any relevance, i think it might be a stat too far.
Sure there are plenty of races to come and the National picture will undoubtedly change, many times, but if Rambling minister now goes straight to the National he must be going with a real live chance based on yesterdays performance and i would sooner him go with my money riding on form figures of 6-5-1-1 than form figures of F-8-0-8
#260
February 15th, 2009 18:16
Systems, of course you’re right about Rambling Minster and he’s got no bigger fan than me- I think his first mention on these threads was from me after his New Years Day victory which was important because he had been on a losing run and every winner since I dont know when, apart from the USA’s Ben Nevis in 81, has won one of their previous ten chases. I think we’re all excited because everyone seems to have got a good juicy price for probably one of the big three or four stat chances come the day. By the way Highland Wedding was in 69! I’m still thinking though, rightly or wrongly and despite being very happy to have backed RM at 33/1, that this year’s winner will come from the first set of criteria of my winners profile, top 5 Hennessey,etc 15/18, 11/11; added to current trends plus that spot on C1/G1 top 3 stat.
Systems, anyone, what do you make of this Brooklyn Brownie, I really think with this could be Ireland’s great hope given that Southern Vic still needs a big performance or War Of Attrition, Preists Leap and Silver Birch get in with the weights they’ve been allocated which is highly improbable.
And what does evrybody think about the 17k chase win? I presume all recent winners have won a chase of this value but what about inflation, deflation, stagflation? (anybody know that Robert Peston email address!!!) Is it something we can compare with, say a winner in the early mid-nineties which I think is quite relevant to the business of finding this years winner.
And Systems I found your reposting of your Christmas list very interesting. If anybody else did lists back then isnt it amazing how our fancies back then virtually match what we like now. The National winner never has much to prove by the turn of the year in his winning season. Fascinating stuff. Unfortunately I didn’t back Rambling Minster after his New Years Day win!
Back to the Class 1/Grade 1 stat, didn’t King Johns Castle finish second in a C1/G1 chase?
#261
February 15th, 2009 19:28
Surprised no one has mentioned the Hennessy from today yet. Just watched it again and very impressed by Notre Pere once again. Still unlikely to win with his current weight especially if it does increase which its likely to do. However, we were all talking about the possibility of Denman ruining this stat, or the likes of War of Attrition or Exotic Dancer having a chance if they run. Well today Notre Pere showed no humiliation in coming a very decent 2nd to Neptunes Collonges who’s OR before the race was 178 and I believe ran up to his best (Was being ridden to make sure he won).
Assuming he did run up to his OR then Notre Pere has to be rated at 170+ based on todays run, and the fact that he was staying on indicated he may well have beat NC given more distance. His current weight in the National puts him around 160-161.
Now I’m not saying I will be backing him, just saying if we’re discussing the likes of Denman and Exotic Dancer upsetting the OR/Weight stat then we have to also contemplate this horse who has proven stamina and a great jumper. And although appearing to be burdened at the weights with an OR of only 138 he appears to be quite a few lbs well in after todays performance.
Ells
1
#262
February 15th, 2009 19:31
No problems Wacky, we (as a group of bloggers) got it right in the end eventually pretty much, i was only frustrated becasue when i tipped up Snowy Morning as each way value i was repeatedly ignored / mocked lol. I am a trends man BUT i follow my own instinct with that.
What i will say about Rambling Minster, which is the same thing i said about D’Argent last year, he ticks many of the boxes BUT this does not necessarily mean the winner has been found. Even ignoring the luck factor which does exist, there are runs of his in the past that don’t fill me with confidence. On recent form, he looks great but will he be cantering along after 4 and a half miles in the same fashion? I for one will remain sceptical. The value was had at 40s and above
Re HOT WELD. Yes he has been off the track for a long time but remember, so had Miinehoma. He has reportedly been laid out for this race and a prep run over hurdles will be sufficient if he has been trained for this. He will be running off 10 stone on the big day, and for a horse with so much class over the longer distances, i think he will have too much in hand over the rest.
#263
February 15th, 2009 20:00
Hi Russell. Big day for Hot Weld on Wednesday at Doncaster in 3mile chase. It will be soft but ground shouldn’t be any worse than that. I posted earlier about Aldaniti ’81 and Miinnehoma ’94 who both came back and only run one and two prep runs respectively and they both notched a chase win before Aintree, as did Last Suspect ’85 who only had 3 preps. Do you think HW needs to win?
#264
February 15th, 2009 20:32
Hi guys.
Thanks Silver Birch and Pablo for info.
I think we’re all doing great as a team but let’s keep it like that – as a TEAM.
So much time was spent on the overrated (on current form that is) Butler’s Cabin, so let’s NOT make the same mistake with RAMBO.
I think I sum up many’s opinion here: A progressive stayer, coming into the form of his life (we’ve defo not seen the end of his progressiveness) and couple that with his PERFECT WEIGHT and we have many’s current front runner. Does that mean the race is over – of course not. Does it mean his odds at 25s and anything above over=superb value – yes it absolutely does!!
I TOTALLY agree that STATS of exact positioning before the GN are interesting but NOT an important trend – except VV bad form, of course which does not bode well. COD first with Eider double, RAMBO maybe first in years at a teble win streak inc GN – but let’s not be blinkered – these stats are NOT a deal breaker. One MASSIVE plus for me though is his HUGELY talented jumping – my bets will feel in very good hoofs (lol) on GN day. I can tell you of my considerable holdings on RAMBO just now, not many will be getting laid off.
Let’s push on now as a team and focus on the REST of the field.
Wacky, Systems, Silver, Pablo, Crisp, Puzzled, Rascal, Daniel, KJ and all you greats on this blog – let’s evaluate the rest of the field.
What do we think of both Parsons and Hot Weld – not much recently at all to go on but the class is there. Are they rumoured to run? What do we feel they need to do to be shortlisted by the Team, and have they a schedule upcoming that could see their prep back on track and satisfy the Team?
#265
February 15th, 2009 20:39
Re Rambling Minster being tired at the end of the race, lets not forget that 3m5f round Haydock is a long 3m5f and when its heavy at Haydock, it really is heavy. On the basis of that run, I have abosolutely no doubts that Ramlbing Minster will stay the distance at Aintree.
#266
February 15th, 2009 20:48
I agree with the words of caution on Rambling Minster and I also speak from a position of winning money (c£2k) if he wins the National. He put up a superb jumping performance on Saturday and I was personally a bit surprised that Ladbrokes still went 25/1. But Ladbrokes do know the time of day and I see he is now 20/1 at Lads. And so I backed him again this morning. If he makes the line up, then he could be around 10/1 on the day. It may be over simplifying it but I remain of the view that (FR) breds get the red pen treatment and so out goes Butlers Cabin, My Will etc. Hot Weld I too like but he will only have had one run come Aintree and so it is hard to back him with confidence. He is laso 62 in the list and needs 22 to come out to get a run. A small saver before he runs this week would be the advice. My short list remains Rambo, Kilbeggan Blade (63 on the list and so may not get in either), Souther Vic and State of Play (and outsiders worth a few bob on Betfair) are Darkness and Reveillez (has to have anoher run). The weights should go down to the low ten stones+ at least and so there will still be a big weight difference between top and bottom weights. But I have very much enjoyed reading the threads guys – thanks.
#267
February 15th, 2009 21:09
Well I dont expect either of Parsons/Hot Weld to get four prep runs in. Does that they can’t win? No. We need to understand the figures and why theey are there. It would seem that modern training methods consider that four to six prep runs is the ideal sort of campaign for a horse aimed at the National, in an ideal world. But horses are not machines. Injuries, going concerns upset plans. Ok we’ve only had three winners with 3 or less prep runs in 27 runnings but I would say that is more like an occurence, like the wearing of blinkers, it’s happened before/it’ll happen again. As I mentioned though in earlier post Aldaniti, Last Suspect and Miinnehoma all won a chase in their preps.
#268
February 15th, 2009 21:31
Both State of Play and Parsons Legacy have had two runs, like good ground and go well fresh (both won first time out) – perhaps they won’t run again until the race itself?
State of Play has previously won at Aintree after a break since before Xmas (he then had a seven month break before winning the Hennessy first time out)
Crisp – do you know if a horse won the National in the last 30 odd years without a run after Xmas?
#269
February 15th, 2009 21:43
Yes you are quite right Showlad it is time to move on and have a look at the other contenders, we don’t want to miss anything…..if their is a chink in Rambos armour then it’s best we try and find it now
Parsons Legacy is one still on my savers list but i am concerned that his race pattern is beginning to form just like last years….we were crying out for him to run as he fitted nicely into all the current stats but a week or 2 before the race he was withdrawn without the runs we wanted to see and his chance was gone along with all our monies
For me i would want to see a very good run before i risked any money on him this year back in December when he pulled up in the Boylepoker he was facing many of this years entries….and at this stage i don’t think that form is good enough.
Hot Weld is indeed more difficult to sum up, he has the long distance form and does tick all the boxes but i am very concerned that he has to overcome nearly 2 years off the track and will not fit in at least 3 runs before the National(but in saying that he did run 3 times in April 2007 winning Twice) so you never know with this trainer, if he thinks he needs the runs for peek fitness then he might just run him again soon after Wednesday.
But in saying all this i would sooner have a saver bet on Hot Weld based purely on his previous long distance form rather than Parsons legacy….sure the stats we seem to apply do indeed help find the winners but this horse has gone the distance, and the fact that he has been there and done it i think speaks volumes.
#270
February 15th, 2009 21:48
Pablo i agree i think that State of play will want to run fresh and if he lines up the next time we see him run will be in the big race itself…. Evan Williams has made it known that he thinks he has found the key to this horse and openly acknowledges that he ran him too often in the past.
So if he takes his chance than he will be one with a break of over 3 months since his last race.
#271
February 15th, 2009 22:00
Ok – so how about a list of horses to take a close look at next time out?
To start…
Parsons Legacy
My Will
Hot Weld
Southern Vic
#272
February 15th, 2009 22:05
Great List Pablo for closer spec
#273
February 15th, 2009 22:08
I’d rule out the French Bred (My Will) Pablo.
#274
February 15th, 2009 22:12
I’m new to this forum so go easy on me. I’m generally skeptical about statistics but this is a race where the stats are an incredibly powerful tool in predicting the winner. Some say the National is a lottery but on the contrary, winners of the race have remarkably similar profiles.
Some criteria I use are as follows:
-Won over at least 3m (11/11)
-Won a class 1 or class 2 chase (11/11)
-Originally allotted 9st12-10s13 (10/11)
-Officially rated 136-147 (10/11)
-Ran between 10 and 27 times over fences (10/11)
If you apply these criteria you are left with the following shortlist:
BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05
PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-04
REVEILLEZ 10-10-04
FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-03
GOLDEN FLIGHT (FR) 10-10-03
L’AMI (FR) 10-10-03
SIMON 10-10-03
IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-01
RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01
SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01
ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00
HOT WELD 10-9-13
KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13
Make of it what you will but those basic criteria have shortlisted virtually all of the recent winners. I think there’s a very high chance the winner will come from that lot. Accordingly, last week I took the 33s and 40s available on Southern Vic and Rambling Minster respectively and will be adding many of the other shortlisted horses to my portfolio over the coming weeks.
#275
February 15th, 2009 22:38
Do i think Hot Weld needs to win on his return at Doncaster? not necessarily win, this is not a trend that would rule him out, i just want to see him run a good race without visibly tiring extensively in the last half mile. The ground at Aintree won’t be a problem for him as the chances of it being good / good to soft are v high. Hot Weld would only really be at a disadv. if it was heavy
I for one dont think the ground at Haydock was that much of a bog. So Rambling Minster’s stamina i don’t think has been fully satisfied yet. But yes, lets move on to other contenders!!
#276
February 15th, 2009 23:27
Russell,
Rambling Minister has won over 4m on Soft ground with 11-7 on his back. If that doesn’t satisfy you i’m not sure what will!
#277
February 16th, 2009 01:02
“Ok – so how about a list of horses to take a close look at next time out?”
Add Darkness to the list.
On a point of history. the last time a Fav won two years in a row was 1893 and 1894? I really dont want my money on the FAV! Currently its close between BC, HTE and BFT.
#278
February 16th, 2009 01:06
Any more thoughts on State of Play please. I have him on my short list but am worried about his possible weight but I notice so many out there have him as a good thing.
No money on him yet so please can I have your views soon as I am very tempted.
#279
February 16th, 2009 01:57
State of Play will arguably need a run before Aintree – the horse is entered for the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham (and the Gold Cup) to freshen it up?
State of Play has got a lot going for it for the GN – especially if it recaptures 2006 Hennessy form. The weight wouldn’t put me off (unless it soars to over 11 stone with drop-outs), he’s a reliable jumper, perfect long-term form and experience (13 chases and 5 wins), fourth season chaser, won at Aintree (ok, it was the Mildmay), twice come out on top in big fields, and has mixed it in classy company without disgrace.
I’m not sure owners/trainer are taking the Grand National seriously though judging by this season’s preparation. I would have expected him to be taking a shot at the Welsh National on Boxing Day rather than chasing home Cloudy Lane at Wetherby??
I’m keeping a watching brief for now. A decent run at Cheltenham may see the price down below 20/1 for the National though.
#280
February 16th, 2009 04:19
re – state of Play
Stand back and look at the GN list. How many horses between 10.1 and 10.8 have won the Hennessy and thought good enough to run in the Gold cup – finished 6th.with Neptune Collonges 8th. A horse of this class on 10.8 must be worth a second look even if the wts. go up.
#281
February 16th, 2009 04:46
re- Rambling Minister –
What a performance, he looks to be the one.
Very hard to find any faults with this horse apart from a few obvious minor things that are not worth mentioning. Last year proved it doesn’t pay to dig 2 deep.
At present he looks to be the one.
#282
February 16th, 2009 08:55
Had a classic “bet to nothing” on Saturday. Had £4 at 350/1 on Rambling Minister to win both Saturday’s race and the big one in April. I’m a great believer in such bets…once had a couple of quid on Justin Gatlin at 100/1 to win Olympic 100 metres gold.
I wanted to keep on the right side of Rambo and i’ve now done that and some.
Not counting any chickens yet though–there’s still a dark horse or two out there who will be springers in the market before off time.
#283
February 16th, 2009 10:21
Pablo- I’ll keep checking but the longest gap between prep run and National I’ve found so far is Aldaniti ’81 – 52 days.
It’s unlikely but if the weights didn’t go up I think State Of Play could win it in style off 10-8,Nat OR 150, best OR 160- 10lbs less and he’s still winning races. I suppose you would have to give him a chance with anything up to 10-13/11-1, remember bottom weight could be 10-2/10-4, but as it’s been said earlier how serious / worried are connections about a weight rise and SOP isn’t very big. I’d prefer it if he had another spin round in the Gold Cup, finished in top 6. May be if Madison Du bulldozer wins GC Pipe might be tempted to do the double which would be the best scenario for SOP.
Miinnehoma- I’ve just come across those fascinating 1st , 2nd, 3rd, strike rate in chases statistics of GN winners that you posted last year. 14/18 winners have had 50% or more, the others had at least 42%(I make Rambling Minster’s 40%)
#284
February 16th, 2009 10:40
Systemsman,
State of Play is a horse that I find very difficult to form a conclusion about. When he followed up his excellent Aintree win with his Hennessy triumph he looked a most progressive horse but since then I don’t think he has progressed a great deal, as much of his form has been indifferent. He has run some poor races but every 2nd or 3rd run delivers a performance which won’t let you write him off completely! For example, his form in the 2nd half of last season was poor but he comes back and wins the Charlie hall before once again running a bit below par in the Roland Merrick.
One thing I do believe is that this horse runs best fresh, and Evan Williams ran him too frequently last season. I would see him running between now and Aintree as a big negative. 4 of his last 5 wins have come in October and November and 3 of those being his seasonal debut. Also, when he won at Aintree in ’06, that was his first run since Boxing Day. Every one of his 7 career wins has come after a gap of a minimum of 5 weeks since his previous run. If I had backed him I would want to see him go there a fresh horse.
If the weights don’t go up too much, and if he goes there a fresh horse with the ground good-soft or better (he has won on soft but I think he’s better on a sound surface), he could run a blinder. I don’t think I would back him yet though because if he runs at Cheltenham I really think that would ruin his chances.
#285
February 16th, 2009 11:30
On the advice given think I will wait a bit longer on State of Play (or might just have a small bet next weehk)- the key has to be to get in on 11.01 or less and preferably under 11.00. He appears to be one horse we dont want to see run again till the GN so the price should hold at least to Cheltenham should he run there (but best if he dosnt from what The Stayer says {exellent post by the way]).
I put my hands up and now admit Rambo is on of the two best ante post bets currently (but i can find a few problems with trends such as Crisp 73 mentioned). I woud post them but I get the feeling most would not want to know and it would be an unpopuler post, condemended by all.
#286
February 16th, 2009 11:56
Across all the bookies on ‘oddschecker’ there are currently 7 horses quoted as a fav or joint-fav for that company. These are;
Butlers Cabin
Hear The Echo
Big Fella Thanks
Rambling Minster
My Will
Comply or Die
Notre Pere
The bookies don’t seem able to pick a winner at this stage, so no wonder we can’t fully agree between ourselves!
If your raceday portfolio was to include the winners of the Haydock Gold Cup, Racing Post Chase, Eider and Grimthorpe you would probably have a good shout given the form of those selections. The key will be in getting the money on for the GN before those races are run. Many of us managed it this Saturday, lets hope the next 3 weekends are equally productive.
#287
February 16th, 2009 12:06
Trying to summarise some of the points:
Parsons Legacy
Only run twice this season – many people fancied this one last year until it was pulled out before the race – interested to see how it gets on next time out – will it run before Aintree? It won first time out after 9 month break this season
My Will
He’s a Frenchie but has class and will watch his next run with interest – likely to be the Gold Cup and if he’s staying on strongly up that hill – which he didn’t do in 2007 – might have a saver
Hot Weld
This one likes the sun on its back and goodish ground and has stayed 4 miles before – sounds like Aintree in April? – very interested to see how it gets on this week
Southern Vic
Trained for this by Walsh who knows his business – very similar to the way Papillon was trained – variety of trips etc – many of us eager to see this one perform well because we have ante-post vouchers on this one
Darkness
Handicapper given this one a real chance – needs an encouraging run and then it’s all systems go – owned by Andrew Lloyd-Webber so BBC creaming themselves if this one goes in – Eurovision blah blah blah
Simon
Fallen twice at Valentine’s second time around – might be racing off lowest racing weight 3rd time around – needs another run first – usually warms up with Racing Post Chase but not entered this year
Brooklyn Brownie
Good staying pedigree, some form with Snoopy Loopy and stayed on well into 2nd place over National fences (on soft ground which is not ideal) – might not get in but another sound run would be nice
Reveillez
Decent horse coming back from injury – pulled up on reappearance with jumping errors too – needs another run but trading at a big price if he performs well
State of Play
Some of us would consider another prep run a negative rather than a positive
Other ones I’m keeping an eye on (but probably not for you trends boys) – Snowy Morning, Cane Brake, Irish Invader and Fleet Street
#288
February 16th, 2009 12:34
Systems post,post! I think we do need to look at others but any info is good info, you’re doing a public service!
Good points,The Stayer, but can any horse win the National without a prep run within say eight weeks( covering the fairytale Aldaniti factor)? Not raced over 27f so we would have to take stamina on trust. The point about running well fresh is important, but doesn’t look as though he will have his prep before Cheltenham, prep runs at Cheltenham are not bad but do we think a negative for SOP? After his 6th in Kauto Star’s Gold Cup he finished 31 lengths, over 25f, behind Exotic Dancer at Aintree receiving just 4lbs. While it may not have been a great performance for SOP, I think any of the other contenders for this year’s National wouldn’t mind that.
#289
February 16th, 2009 12:46
Crisp – if State of Play has a prep run at Cheltenham or anywhere else (unless over hurdles) I will trade out at the start of that prep race and take a profit – I want it fresh come race day
#290
February 16th, 2009 12:49
Crisp,
He was only beaten about 9l by ED in the Gold Cup and that was off level weights so getting beaten 31l by the same horse at Aintree when 4lbs better off was a disappointing run and a lower level of form.
I agree with the general principle that you want a horse to be sharp for the National because any chinks in fitness are sure to be exposed over the 4m4f trip. However, you do have to take each horse on it’s own merits. Most horses do like to be kept on the go and improve for a couple of runs, but not all, and a look through State of Play’s form gives a strong impression that this is a horse that is best after a break. I honestly think that if State of Play goes to Cheltenham he will leave his National chance there.
Whether Evan Williams can get him fit enough for the National is another thing, but he got him fit enough for the Hennessy first time out.
#291
February 16th, 2009 12:56
Pablo im also keeping one eye on Fleet Street as from what i can see he fits many of the trends for the national.
I think Saturday will be the deciding factor for Fleet Street but if he goes well there i cant see 66′s lasting long on him but on the other side of the coin if he doesn’t do well there then thats his national chances gone in my opinion.
#292
February 16th, 2009 13:09
Brian – I’m on Fleet Street at fancy prices on Betfair and am looking for a good run on Saturday if ground not too soft – nice weight in National if it stays
#293
February 16th, 2009 14:30
Bobbyjo Chase @ Fairyhouse this Saturday @ 3:15pm
Black Apalachi
Chelsea Harbour
Snowy Morning
Southern Vic
all down to run…
#294
February 16th, 2009 14:44
Systemsman asked for a list of horses rated 135-145 with a C1 chase place at distance beyond 3 miles.
I have only gone as low as OR of 139, as anything below is touch and go to get in at this stage. The horses are, with the relevant distances in furlongs;
Abbeybraney 25f(never won over 3 miles)
Golden Flight 29f (no runs yet this season, or last season)
L’AMI 28f
SIMON 26f
BATTLECRY 25f
CORNISH SETT 30f
Musica Bella 28f (Never won over 3 miles)
DARKNESS 25f
TRABOLGAN 27f
HOT WELD 33f
CHARACTER BUILDING 27f
HIMALAYAN TRAIL 34f
IDLE TALK 28f
KELAMI 30f
ZABENZ 25f
The observant amongst you will have noticed this has knocked GARDE CHAMPETRE out of contenion…from a stats point of view at least… his only C1 place came over hurdles at 19f.
Personally I would throw the net as high as State of Play in terms of OR, but that’s not what was asked for!
#295
February 16th, 2009 14:48
I should point out Southern Vic has placed in a C1 at 24f, but not beyond. So its not impossible for him to win at the moment, although only Monty’s Pass and Red Marauder have done this in the past 25 years.
#296
February 16th, 2009 15:03
The Bobbyjo Chase should be informative.
Had a quick look at the Eider entries and I don’t think any have an entry in the National. It actually looks a pretty low-grade affair with the top ones rated only 136.
#297
February 16th, 2009 15:15
Hi Guys….some good posts of late.
Re State of play i too agree that if he does indeed run between now and post time then his chance has gone, maybe for him the National has been an afterthought and had the trainer aimed him more at this race then he would maybe had run him in late Jan early Feb, for me A run in March would be too late as we have agreed he wants to go fresh.
I think at this stage really a bit of common sense needs to be applied to the stats. sure the basic current stats that we apply do indeed help us narrow down the field and leaves us with a bunch of horses.
Now most are going to be running for what is maybe their final preps between now and Mid March so see how they run, be bold if they don’t impress then scratch them. Sometimes i think that because they meet a few stats then we become frightened to elimate them just in case, but if the horse don’t show much, stats or not the likely-hood is it won’t win.
I remember around this time last year Comply or Die put in a fantastic performance to win the Eider and some talked it down, we spoke for days about the blinkers thing and some ultimatly talked themselves out of the winner and 33/1 25/1 20/1 (all these fancy prices were lost) and he romped home the 7/1 favourite.
After Rambos performance Saturday we should have a few quid even at the 20/1 offered today as it was a good performance sure it is not the 40′s that was available but 20/1 is still a fancy price to me
(don’t get me wrong he might not win but based on Saturday he must be a live contender. Then look at others in the coming weeks and do the same if they impress, this way i am sure we will find the winner.
Should we really elimate a horse because it wears blinkers, Theoretically their is no reason that blinkers that are applied to help will in the end hinder, should we really eliminate a horse because it is French bred and considered not bred for distance when a French bred like Garde Champetre has won Twice over 3m7F and placed once(this is not one of my fancies by the way because of him being more aimed at Cheltenham than Aintree)
In 1994 should we have eliminated Miinnehoma because no comedian had ever owned a national winner before?
At this stage common sense should prevail,if we look too deeply then we will talk ourselves out of a possible winner, Sure apply the stats but ultimately let your eyes be the guide.
#298
February 16th, 2009 15:29
There are a lot of positive comments on this blog about Kilbeggan Blade, and I happen to agree. However, are we sure he will get in?
Does anyone have any backdated info from last year comparing weights at this initial stage against who finally got in on the day. i.e if your horse was in 65th position in the weights (as a random example) at this equivalent stage last year, did they end up getting in on the day?
Hope that makes sense. Can’t check any other racing sites at work!
#299
February 16th, 2009 15:33
Good post Puzzled.
You do have to be careful about the stats you go by. Further up I posted the ones I follow, and I think they are the crucial ones. Use these to eliminate the horses that are unlikely to win then to make your selections you have to go on form, going etc.
I see Garde Champetre has been mentioned a few times. He ticks a lot of the right boxes and has made my shortlist but he is one of the horses i’m wanting to pass over to be honest.
I don’t think his level of form over fences is good enough. In his novice chase campaign he only won once and in fact ran as a novice for two seasons as he didn’t get his head in front the first time! He ran poorly in the 4-miler at the Festival as well.
He then switched to the Banks/X-Country races and does boast decent good recent form. But these races, barring one or two specialists, are typically made up of 10, 11, 12 year old chasers that have lost their way and their trainers are using the race to try and “rekindle their interest.” They’re often run at a pretty slow pace as well. If you take the times of the Cheltenham races (3m7f) then scale them up to what it would be over 4m4f, you typically get a time 30-40 secs slower than most Nationals. I think he’l get taken off his feet.
#300
February 16th, 2009 15:47
So the Eider is a dud next Saturday then – never mind…
Still leaves Racing Post Chase, 3:10 (Rough Quest did the double) and Bobbyjo Chase,3:15 (Hedgehunter did the double)
After those two races are we going to see anything as dramatic as the plunge on Rambo last weekend?
Or loads on the drift…
#301
February 16th, 2009 15:48
Like you The stayey i am not really a fan of GC, i think that there are better horses to be considered at this stage, i know Silver birch took the Cheltenham X country, National route but i am not really a fan of a horse having this kina preparation.
If anyone fancies Hot Weld then the 33′s readily available might look very generous after Wednesdays race.
#302
February 16th, 2009 15:50
Agree with you Stayer. Puzzled, I like your posts and they make a lot of sense. My suggestion is that we try agree the 6 or 7 trend categories that we wish to live or die by, agree our shortlist and then monitor runners over the next week or two, particularly at the Festival. I also share the view that a run at Cheltenham for State of Play would be a negative and I have already backed him at 33/1. My short list that I have backed is Rambling Minster, Southern Vic, State of Play and Kilbeggan Blade (might do well to get a run). I have backed two outsiders at ridiculous prices on Betfair (Darkness and Reveillez).
Puzzled makes a very good point on the headgear argument. Anyone who did not be open minded enough to ignore that trend last year (and I am pretty much in that cetegory) missed out on a winner. That is why I’d like to see us agree on the core trends we will work to.
I am a great believer in getting the red pen anything with (FR) after its name. It is 100 years since the last French bred winner of the National (1909) and of the last 80 odd FR bred horses to run in the race, only 6 have been placed. OK so Clan Royal and Royal Auclair have been placed but they have not won – and as for Butler’s Cabin, he had a long way to go when he fell last year and he has not run this. He definitely must go, from my point of view.
But we have been running this thread as a really cracking collegiate effort and I am happy to be convinced by anyone else that I should be more open minded on FR breds, the weights, Official rating etc.
As I have offered before, I have a spreadsheet with the top 70 runners in it and it is largely complete in terms of measuing each againt the top 9 or 10 key trends. I would be happy to share that, if anyone wants to help me complete it and check the data that I have included in it.
Cheers
#303
February 16th, 2009 15:55
I have 4 selections for the National, all low weighted and one of those is Kilbeggan Blade. He seems to fit most major trends so would somebody PLEASE do me the favour of telling me why he’s not rated by the informed members here?. Is his TS too low. What about entries before the National? He’s definitely not French.
#304
February 16th, 2009 16:05
Whitearab Says:
February 16th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
I am a great believer in getting the red pen anything with (FR) after its name. It is 100 years since the last French bred winner of the National (1909) and of the last 80 odd FR bred horses to run in the race, only 6 have been placed.
Out of interest do you have the same stats for the irish and british bred horses over the same time frame as the French breds?
#305
February 16th, 2009 16:06
Good points made on State of Play’s form/likes/dislikes. The point I’m trying to make is that he will not need to be at his best to win the National. Some horses have needed career bests TS/RPR to win this race. State Of Play would surely though need time on the racecourse to build up stamina reserves whether he runs best fresh over 3 miles or not. The amount of time between last prep run and National is a really strong stat. Nothing has won the National with a gap of longer than 52 days, if ever,in modern times though it has to accepted that one or two have been second, Mely Moss/Clan Royal for instance.
#306
February 16th, 2009 16:06
Puzzled,
It’s not so much the X-country race being used as a National prep, it’s the fact that outside of the X-country arena Garde Champetre boasts very ordinary form over fences – form not good enough to win a National. Silver Birch was different in that he was not a X-Country specialist and had a level of form over conventional obtacles to suggest he was good enough to win the National (Welsh National and Becher Chase winner).
Whitearab,
French breds haven’t had the greatest success over recent years but we seem to have more and more French breds being trained in Britain (and now Ireland too) and I think it’s only a matter of time before one wins. They have already been knocking on the door with Clan Royal and Royal Auclair. And don’t forget winners Amberleigh House and Numbersixvalverde, both Irish bred but had a French sire and French dam respectively. As you say, you live or die by the stats that you adopt but you’re braver than me if you adopt that one!
#307
February 16th, 2009 16:17
Ardaghey and Dun Doire were the lowest weighted horses to run in the race last year. At this equivalent declaration stage they were joint 70th in the list (along with a few others who did not make the final cut). There is no guarantee that this pattern will be replicated this year but, assuming it is, the following horses are on that cusp:
62nd Hot Weld
= Kilbeggan Blade
64th Brooklyn Brownie
= Character Building
= Conna Castle
= Himalayan Trail
= Piraya
= Tumbling Dice
70th Arteea
= Cerium
= Idle Talk
= Kelami
= Zabenz
Does anyone think Brooklyn Brownie has an e/w squeak if it gets in?
#308
February 16th, 2009 18:00
I’m not a fan of Kilbeggan Blade
He was all out to win at Sandown (right handed track with tough finish) under an outstanding ride from AP McCoy – otherwise he simply would not have won
Rambling Minster was beaten fair and square that day but was still staying on very well and travelled well too (looking like the winner) – see the video
Subsequently Rambo has excelled with 2 career bests
I would suggest that history shows that Kilbeggan has peaked already this season and unless his stamina proves otherwise – should stay all day – I cannot have him winning the National
I don’t like his running style, nor the fact that he’s shown absolutely dismal form in the Spring
I don’t think he has the necessary class and tactical speed to win – might run into a place but I would be very shocked if this were to prevail
#309
February 16th, 2009 18:41
Daniel Edwards
“Personally I would throw the net as high as State of Play in terms of OR, but that’s not what was asked for!”
Quite correct Daniel (bst to lplay safe at this stage)and I have done this for my own short list which is almost reday to post – just got to tinker with ita bit here and there.
Would it be posible for you to post the full list up to State Of Play. Sorry if i was being a little to “risk taking” – it is clearly best to have the full list.
Two to have doubts about:
GARDE CHAMPETRE – not placed (1/2/3) in a C1 chase.
HIMALAYAN TRAIL !! – failed to complete in two races this season – a big no no for trends (my secret GN trends “Black Book” states that any horse that has failed to complete twice in GN season should be ignored!). Poor old HT.
#310
February 16th, 2009 19:09
I agree Pablo, Kilbeggan Blade was in my final 12 but when you look at his TS 124 (quite low) it kinda put me off.
Like it has been said on here before the national is not a lottery race like many think, you need a degree of class and a good cruising speed to win. The winner is normally in the first 6-7 2nd time round cruising along, and i just cannot see Kilbeggan doing this.
#311
February 16th, 2009 20:36
Does anybody know when the Grimthorpe Chase is?
#312
February 16th, 2009 21:21
Grimthorpe = 28th Feb
#313
February 16th, 2009 22:20
Parsons Legacy
Rambling Minister
Southern Vic.
Cant believe the price still on Parsons with Betfair,Ive already taken 120`s and 110`s and will not be greedy.
Just taken the 22`s for Rambling,yes I missed the boat with Laddies on saturday.
Also had Southern Vic at 48.
#314
February 16th, 2009 22:39
Nice one Pablo! I shall make a note of it. Although I am sure the valuable input of everyone on this site wouldn’t have let me miss it
#315
February 16th, 2009 23:11
Systemsman i respect your stat concerning Himalayan Trail being pulled up in 2 races this season, i would just like to say in his defence both races were on heavy ground & even Black Apalachi was pulled up in the first one,also i read an article in todays Racing Post with James Mangan were he said that the horse disliked the heavy ground, they have also tried him with a tongue tie and there has been a great improvement, he plans to run him at the weekend and we will see the real horse. In the becher chase were he came 5th Barry Geraghty said the horse jumped the fences like montys pass did,the horse isn’t far off meeting your important trends for the race and does he not have a profile of being laid out for the race by a trainer who has already done it once recently.
#316
February 16th, 2009 23:22
A few things I’m mulling over this evening….
1, Miko de Beauchene has not been tipped up much – are the form figures putting off punters? In particular the two recent ‘unseated’ and PU. In many ways the horse ticks the boxes and looks like he can can cart weight round marathon distances better than most. His performance on Saturday was arguably better than Rambo’s taking into account the weight and conditions? He’s a Welsh National winner and Haydock Gold Cup winner….that’s two bags of gold dust!! I would suggest that if he runs and finishes, he’s in the frame. Classy, proven battler with ‘boom or bust’ form figures.
2, How likely is Rambo to get in? Put another way, is there a realistic chance he will not make the starting line-up? Didn’t we sweat a bit over COD last year in very similar circumstances? There are a number of other fancied horses even worse off, reliant on 20+ horses above them pulling out. It could be a tight squeeze.
3, King Johns Castle should be a stronger horse this year but there are plenty of negatives to put against him, including the fact he’s not raced for a year and appears to lack ‘class.’ He came pretty close to stealing the headlines and ripping up the stats book last year though? Does he have any supporters out there?
#317
February 16th, 2009 23:53
To Crisp 73,
Spot on – very clever and kind of you to mention that little stat gem from last year. It certainly put the tin hat on D’Argent for me,with only 39% strike rate but unlike RM, he had other faults.
In fact systemsman said he was going to put that stat in his bag of tricks for this year.But I think he must have forgot, otherwise he would not have been touting the 3 donkeys some time ago. ie Black Apalachi, Hear the Echo and Chelsea Harbour.
Re – RM
Your right,RM has a 40% strike rate – this would be a new low but on the bright side only 2% below the lowest but 14/18 did have 50%+. Some stats will change slightly each year, so if RM wins,42% becomes 40%. No big deal if everything else is ok.
#318
February 17th, 2009 00:02
Johnny –
1. Miko is on my long shortlist but I understand connections are going for the Gold Cup, especially if it is soft going. I would wait and see what happns after the gold cup. The only other issues are it will probably carry at least 11st 1 and the dreaded letters FR after its name.
2. Rambo only needs 15 to come out Johnny.
3. Cant back this as not been out yet and again will probaby carry at least 11st 1 on the day.
#319
February 17th, 2009 09:58
Rambling Minster should almost certainly make the cut. I reckon that in the current top 40 there are at least 15 horses that are unlikely runners. Rambo is currently 55 on the list but after his win on Saturday is now the highest rated of the horses set to carry 10-01, which therefore makes him no. 52. He only needs 12 to come out. I think last year the last horse to make the cut was 62/63 in the original handicap so i’m confident he will get in.
I’m not too sure about this strike rate thing. Too many factors to consider why horses do/don’t win races. Is the horse fully fit? Does it like the ground? Is the trip correct for the horse? Is the horse trying or are connections trying to get the horse beat to knock a few pounds of for a target later in the season etc? I honestly don’t think you can write-off horses that have a poor strike rate, as it’s not always a true reflection of the horse’s ability or attitude.
#320
February 17th, 2009 10:16
Important post again Dan E. class 1 top3 place over 24f+.
The classy Darkness seems to be on the fringes of lots of lists, mine included, at this stage but what does everybody think about his performances in Scots and Welsh Nationals- pulled up both times? Both of his C1 wins came in fields of 7 or less so he hasn’t won a chase in a large field.
#321
February 17th, 2009 11:21
Darkness was once a decent horse and at first glance 66/1 looks big, but i’d actually want that sort of price on him just getting round. He’s a bad jumper and doesn’t travel well in his races. Some comments in running from his recent races read as:
“Several minor errors and never looked to be going well”
“Not jump well”
If that doesn’t put you off his record in races where there have been more than 16 runners reads as 0, P, P where the 0 was 18/20. If he doesn’t fall he’ll get badly outpaced, spit the dummy out and be tailed-off at the end of the first circut. Not for me.
#322
February 17th, 2009 12:21
Hi all, just a quick update to let you know that I have been making some revisions to my national analysis and scoring system and hope to upload my findings on the net somewhere in the next few days. I will post the address as soon as this is done. I have hit a hurdle so to speak on scoring for class 1 & 2 chase wins but I am working through those now. I am also going through the last ten winners to see how they would have scored using my system. Thankfully this appears to tie in perfectly with what I have so far. As I am fairly confident that not much will change once my scores are finalised here are my 12 against the field.
HOT WELD 10-9-13
RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01
KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13
HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12
DARKNESS 10-10-01
STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08
SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-06
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00
BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05
MON MOME (FR) 9-10-06
ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00
COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12
Of these I think it is safe to rule out STATE OF PLAY, SILVER BIRCH, MON MOME and COMPLY OR DIE.
Looking at their order in the handicap of the remaining horses we have:
62nd HOT WELD
55th RAMBLING MINSTER
63rd KILBEGGAN BLADE
66th HIMALAYAN TRAIL
52nd DARKNESS
60th GARDE CHAMPETRE
37th BUTLER’S CABIN
59th ALWAYS WAINING
Current prices and ground preference:
33-1 HOT WELD (Good To Firm)
20-1 RAMBLING MINSTER (Good)
33-1 KILBEGGAN BLADE (Soft)
33-1 HIMALAYAN TRAIL (Soft)
50-1 DARKNESS (Good to Soft)
40-1 GARDE CHAMPETRE (Soft)
16-1 BUTLER’S CABIN (Good)
150-1 ALWAYS WAINING (Good)
A very interesting race indeed if they all get in but my selections based on Good or Good to Soft ground, the likelihood of making the race and every other darn statistic I’ve thrown into the mix are:
1) RAMBLING MINSTER
2) DARKNESS
3) BUTLER’S CABIN
I look forward to sharing my full analysis with you online for your feedback and comment.
#323
February 17th, 2009 12:27
However, my gut instinct tells me that this years winner will be RAMBLING MINSTER, BUTLER’S CABIN or HOT WELD so please give me another 48 hours before I nail by flag to the mast.
#324
February 17th, 2009 12:38
Rascal,
I certainly agree with many on your shotlist, and Rambling Minster and Butler’s Cabin are both in my top 5 most likely winners.
Really can’t have Darkness though (see my previous post).
#325
February 17th, 2009 12:51
I appreciate what your saying Stayer but Darkness has no career falls. I’m interested in your comments about his performances in big fields and will look at that in more depth before I publish my final analysis. Infact, I have a feeling he shouldn’t be on my list – no wins since 2005? Is that right?
#326
February 17th, 2009 13:06
Very intersting post from Half Day Harry earlier, re Himalayan Trail. Looks like he might be due a run this weekend?
As I have stated previously on here, if HT runs a decent race before the national then the price will nosedive. Surely worth a few quid, given that he meets most stats…..
#327
February 17th, 2009 13:06
Darkness is in my ‘small bets on outsiders’ list but I would not have such a definite view in ruling him out as The Stayer. The horse has won the Feltham (£70k race in 2005), been placed in the Royal and Sun Alliance at the Festival and been 3rd in a £50k 3 Mile chase at Haydock carrying 11st 12lbs, beating Rambling Minister by 16 1/2 lengths and giving him 4lbs into the bargain. So I would certainly not dismiss him completely – although I much prefer Rambling Minister and accept Darkness ran a shocker in the Welsh National (but don’t think soft is his ground).
#328
February 17th, 2009 13:18
Indeed, no win since 2005. Interestingly, as well, out of his 6 career wins 4 were with AP McCoy as the jockey. If he picks Darkness as his ride for the race I wonder how this will be perceived considering his successes, yet his poor record in the race.
To be fair, I don’t think I can put any of my money on Darkness for the race. His recent form has been very patchy, and as some have pointed out his performances in big fields have maybe found him out.
My 4 against the field will be very similar to others at this stage:
1.Rambling Minster
2.Butler’s Cabin
3.Garde Champetre
4.Kilbeggan Blade
#329
February 17th, 2009 13:18
BUTLER’S CABIN now best priced at 14-1, 12-1 generally. Looks like those who didn’t listen when it was 20s feel a bit silly now. Apart from Wacky of course, who’ll be thrilled at laying BC when it goes off 7-1 favourite.
#330
February 17th, 2009 13:22
Rascal, Whitearab,
Fair enough comments. Perhaps I have been too dismissive of his chances.
Rascal is correct in that he hasn’t won since December 2005 but he was off the course for over 18 months and has only ran 4 times since that, being placed twice.
Yes he’s won a Feltham and also been placed in a RSA Chase, but if you look at the RSA apart from the winner they have mostly turned out to be a pretty mediocre bunch.
My issue is with the way he jumps and travels and I don’t think he does either with enough fluency for this. Ok so he hasn’t actually tipped up but he does make mistakes, and over 4m4f they will catch up with him. His runs in very big fields have been very poor and I can’t see him enjoying the hurly-burly at Aintree.
#331
February 17th, 2009 13:38
Rascal nice work and very close to my own selections.
I wont put a penny on Hot Weld until it runs (so its a wait and see still but its getting late for prep runs!!).
Darkness is still the Dark horse but needs to run and do well in a prep race (wait and see but I have saver on him).
ALWAYS WAINING too big in price at this stage.
Himalayan Trail – two fails to finish in GN season (a big NO for trends, but I have already got a big bet on him)
KILBEGGAN BLADE and GARDE CHAMPETRE (I have early bets on but now feel very cold about their chances – a little big in the price range – too many 40/1′s)
Now I keep having this dream it the commentry on the GN 2009 coming up to the last fence:
“And it Rambling Minster and Butlers Cabin neck and neck as they approach the last in the 2009 Grand National – what a race, what a fiinsh. What a fantastic jump by …… to go into a lead over the last and now surges ahead of ……”
Fill in the gaps!
So Racscal I agree the top two curently are(sorry Wacky – heeee’s back!)
1. Rambling Minster
1. Butler Cabin (but MUST get a 1/2 or 3rd in a Chase over 25f or more prior to GN)
Anyone know BC next race?
#332
February 17th, 2009 13:42
Depends on the weather but I think it might be at Cheltenham now Systemsman. Did someone say Hot Weld was down to run this week?
#333
February 17th, 2009 13:50
Just checked – Hot Weld tomorrow 3:20 at Doncaster. We’ll be keeping a sharp eye on that race.
#334
February 17th, 2009 13:56
Re systemsmans dream
“And it Rambling Minster and Butlers Cabin neck and neck as they approach the last in the 2009 Grand National – what a race, what a fiinsh. What a fantastic jump by …… to go into a lead over the last and now surges ahead of ……”
You forgot to add the last bit systemsman – “and making a late run is Himalayan Trail, he’s closing in fast….and HIMALAYAN TRAIL WINS THE 2009 NATIONAL! ”
Well, ok, I’m getting a bit carried away, but he is 2nd on my current list after all!
#335
February 17th, 2009 14:01
Get the RED PEN through Butler’s Cabin. Would not have him at 20/1 if you offered me it now. Hope he continues to shorten up and leave the value about the real winner. You will be the one looking silly come Grand National day rascal (just teasing!).
There will be no mention of Bulter’s Cabin in the closing stages of the race commentary!
Rascal – note your comments too and agree with them on Darkness. I have a lot of respect for what you say.
#336
February 17th, 2009 14:23
Casting the net as high as State of Play brings in the following (again with their furthers C1 place in furlongs)
STATE OF PLAY 27f
MON MOME 30f
SILVER BIRCH 36f
BUTLERS CABIN 29f
Offshore Account 25f (only 6 chase runs)
PARSONS LEGACY 33f(See note below)
REVEILLEZ 33f
Just missing on the ideal profile is Opera Mundi on 24f, but he is a 7 year old.
Worth pointing out that since Rough Quest, all of the winners have placed in a C1 race over a distance of 3 miles or beyond, AT LEAST one season before winning their GN. Negative for Rambling Minster? I wouldnt say so, but its worth putting out there I think!
SO, on the basis of ;
1-Likely weight (assuming a rise of 6lb or more) of no more than 11_02
2- Aged 8-12 AND
3- Top 3 finish in a C1 race of a distance of 3 miles or further;
I think I can say with 98% certainty, that the winner of the GN this year will be on this list;
L’AMI
SIMON
BATTLECRY
CORNISH SETT
DARKNESS
RAMBLING MINSTER
TRABOLGAN
HOT WELD
CHARACTER BUILDING
HIMALAYAN TRAIL
SOUTHERN VIC
IDLE TALK
KELAMI
ZABENZ
STATE OF PLAY
MON MOME
SILVER BIRCH
BUTLERS CABIN
PARSONS LEGACY
REVEILLEZ
A lot of these can be scratched for the reasons already outlined. Quite a few frenc breds in there as well. Personally I would scrub quite a few so it looks like this;
BATTLECRY
CORNISH SETT
RAMBLING MINSTER
HOT WELD – Needs a run
SOUTHERN VIC
STATE OF PLAY – If he goes to Cheltenham, im not interested.
SILVER BIRCH – Needs a good run, or two
BUTLERS CABIN – Needs a good run
PARSONS LEGACY – See below.
REVEILLEZ – Needs a good run after last time PU
That’s my ‘long’ shortlist though! Im 85-90% certain the winner is on there. I wont be straying from that unless a horse not on there places in a C1 race over 3 miles or more in the next 3 weeks (i.e. before the end of the festival)
Looking at that list makes me very sweet on Rambling Minster, if the race were today that is!
NB Very worrying is the fact Parsons Legacy’s price has drifted from 40 to 65 on Betfair – This coupled with his poor last showing suggests to me he may not line up come race day.
#337
February 17th, 2009 14:33
Sorry, I forgot to add a win over 3 miles or more obviously.
#338
February 17th, 2009 14:50
Hi Dan – love ur list . very close to my own ….
ive got it down to the magnificent seven below assuming the weights significantly increase …
if they dont id add miko and my will …
STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08 Evan Williams
REVEILLEZ 10-10-04 Jonjo O’Neill
SIMON 10-10-03 John Spearing
RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01 Keith Reveley
SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01 Ted Walsh IRE
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00 J Enda Bolger IRE
HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12 Jimmy Mangan IRE
Ive been torturing myself about how to reduce the list further but ive decided ill make sure ive nibbled at the whole 7 and sit back and watch events unfold.. i think ur right that its unlikely that much can poss change before the great day now but ill keep an eye on the most talked about horse on this forum Butlers Cabin to see what he does . I just cant get away fron the fact that hes already been raised 12lbs by the aintree handicapper just for this one race (compared to his normal or this season) and thats without him even demonstrating yet hes capable of returning to last years form .!! ..
Jonjo also said he needs good ground so i reckon he will only have one more run before the big one and with current form figures of -808 or something like that hes gonna have to perform big time on his remaining race to warrant an interest.
#339
February 17th, 2009 15:01
RE Butlers Cabin
I see that Butlers cabin appears on so many lists, sure i understand that this horse has gone the distance and won some good races around the 4M mark, and he meets most trends, also i cannot disagree that he was really traveling when coming down in last years National, but his form since is so uninspiring his last 3 races have been 8/13, 13/17, 8/19.
WE all seem to have a great knowledge of racing and this race and surely we can see that the 12/1 currently on offer for the horse does not represent value, with his current form even the 20/1 advised seems a bit skinny to me.
When we look at some of the horses lining up this year and we also look at the current form on offer can we honestly say that Butlers Cabin earns his place at the head of the market?
For me i would want to see a really good run within the next 3 weeks for him to earn his place in my top 4
#340
February 17th, 2009 15:02
I hope and prey Butlers Cabin puts in a good run before the big day, as he is my biggest winner at the moment, with Parsons Legacy and Rambling Minster just behind. Still a long way to go that and that can all change.
Looking at my list made me think about Southern Vic a bit more, but I am reluctant to back a horse who given any indication he stays beyond 3 miles yet, not at 30.0 on Betfair anyway. If he can put it a belter a Fairyhouse this weekend, I may have a tiny nibble.
#341
February 17th, 2009 15:04
puzzled Says:
February 17th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
RE Butlers Cabin
I see that Butlers cabin appears on so many lists, sure i understand that this horse has gone the distance and won some good races around the 4M mark, and he meets most trends, also i cannot disagree that he was really traveling when coming down in last years National, but his form since is so uninspiring his last 3 races have been 8/13, 13/17, 8/19.
When we look at some of the horses lining up this year and we also look at the current form on offer can we honestly say that Butlers Cabin earns his place at the head of the market?
I have backed him on the basis that he is being aimed at this race and it would not surprise me at all if he put in a good run between now and race day. If and when he does, 20/1 would soon become 7/1F.
If he doesnt, I can lay off at the 16/1 or so MAX he is going to be and have lost nothing.
#342
February 17th, 2009 15:39
That’s very conservative I think Daniel he is already only 12 to 14 generally and add in the McCoy factor of people following him and with the bookies laying money on-course to shorten the official SP to rob blind the once a year punters I will be looking to lay off my 20-1 at single figure prices and have him running for me on a no lose basis and at least a 10-1 return should he win
#343
February 17th, 2009 15:42
I meant 16/1 if he doesnt run well between now and then. As I say that is the MAX I can see him going off if he does run. As you say, I think even without a good run between now and then we could be looking at 10/1 and shorter. I am set to lay my 20/1 at 10/1…the way his price is going at the moment, it may get that small even without another run.
#344
February 17th, 2009 15:55
Silver Birch Says:
STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08 Evan Williams
REVEILLEZ 10-10-04 Jonjo O’Neill
SIMON 10-10-03 John Spearing
RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01 Keith Reveley
SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01 Ted Walsh IRE
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00 J Enda Bolger IRE
HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12 Jimmy Mangan IRE
Interesting list SB, mainly for me because I have backed the bottom 4 and don’t think the other 3 have that much of a shout personally, Simon is a serial faller I can forgive one fall but two is too many he’s also shown no form this season to add to that. SoP already much discussed will he leave his race at the festival, Reveil is he fit is he a definite runner?
half day harry Says:
February 16th, 2009 at 11:11 pm
Systemsman i respect your stat concerning Himalayan Trail being pulled up in 2 races this season, i would just like to say in his defence both races were on heavy ground & even Black Apalachi was pulled up in the first one,also i read an article in todays Racing Post with James Mangan were he said that the horse disliked the heavy ground, they have also tried him with a tongue tie and there has been a great improvement, he plans to run him at the weekend and we will see the real horse. In the becher chase were he came 5th Barry Geraghty said the horse jumped the fences like montys pass did,the horse isn’t far off meeting your important trends for the race and does he not have a profile of being laid out for the race by a trainer who has already done it once recently.
Harry, Any chance you know what race Jimmy plans to run him in? Guessing in Ireland but over hurdles or fences? I also read a quote from Jimmy M from before his beecher run stating the reason he was running that race was to get him used to the national fences as the only reason Jimmy had bought him from Sue Smith was to try and win the GN! Which probably tells you how seriously he was taking those races in very unfavourable ground, much better to pull him up than risk him. Very tempted to top up my bet on him before the weekend in case the 33′s disappear.
#345
February 17th, 2009 16:09
Brody -
Id agree that in terms of fanciability im gravitating towards the bottom four on my list . State of Play is a bit of an enigma – however he does possess a high degree of class and if he trots up off 10 -8 to 10 -13 well all be kicking ourselves .. I think Reveillez is extremely interesting …ur right no guarantee he will turn up but worth a few pounds here and there at crazy odds – particularly as he seems to keep coming up on peoples trends analysis …
he won that 2m 5f handicap at cheltenham which i believe montys pass and amberleigh house also previously ran in before national glory and his whitbread 2nd was a fine effort giving ten pounds to hot weld after stumbling and ripping his shoe off with a lap to go – (my will back in 3rd)
Im also dying to know what race Jimmy Mangan is targettting Himalayan Trail at – can anybody out there help out .. !
#346
February 17th, 2009 16:20
Himalayan Trail has a similar profile to Monty’s Pass in his year leading up to race (albeit in a slightly different order)
Monty’s = Second in Topham to get him used to the National fences, then a win in a (Kerry) National (3m) followed by some mediocre hurdle outings to keep him ticking over
Himalayan = Win in a (Midlands) National (4m 2f), clear round prep over National fences in Beecher Chase (very tenderly ridden) and a couple of mediocre hurdle outings
The big difference is that Monty’s won a race in his build up and so far Himalayan has not put anything of note in the form book since switching to Mangan
That’s the reason I can’t back him before he runs next – rather take 16/1 after a convincing performance than twice the odds in hope that he reproduces (can’t see him going off much under 16/1 on the day – plenty of others for the Racing Post / BBC / Channel 4 to misinform punters about)
#347
February 17th, 2009 16:20
Found it, 4.50 at Naas, a 3m handicap hurdle will be watching with interest.
#348
February 17th, 2009 16:31
Brody & Silver Birch
Himalayan Trail is entered in a handicap hurdle over 3 miles at Naas on sunday lets hope he runs and puts in a good perfomance.
#349
February 17th, 2009 16:34
Good catch guys .. txs – hopefully we see a little improvement at the weekend – interesting stuff…..
#350
February 17th, 2009 16:34
A lot of people now getting negative about Garde Champetre,i’d been hoping he’d drift out more and get a wee bit more on, but no still getting bet on Betfair and was cut at one bookies today.I think this is a sign that providing he doesn’t get balloted out he’ll turn up.If it comes up soft he’s only got 10-0 prob have about 10-4 on the day.Still my number 1 !
#351
February 17th, 2009 16:35
Rascal Says:
February 17th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
BUTLER’S CABIN now best priced at 14-1, 12-1 generally. Looks like those who didn’t listen when it was 20s feel a bit silly now. Apart from Wacky of course, who’ll be thrilled at laying BC when it goes off 7-1 favourite.
Surely YOU should feel a bit silly Rascal! with such arrogant words how are you going to feel when/if he fails. Got enough problems narrowing it down this year with horses with more claims than him I’m afraid, the fact that he is jf with BFT a 7yr old speaks volumes to me. We are obviously still all divided on this horse, us “non believers” are not feeling silly and that we should have listened to our “betters” I hate that kind of suggestion sorry, it has no place here. We still all agree to disagree!
Horses on many of these fabulous new stats lists,(well done for all the hard work thats been going on! we’re going to need another thread soon!) include Simon who I could never see staying in touch towards the business end of the race or for that matter staying home in his own good time! less weight may help I suppose but I can’t see it making that much difference.
I also can’t see Parsons Legacy in this race. Still can’t shake off Himalayan Trail, excuses for recent runs seem justified he has the featherweight and as I said before he loves spring.
#352
February 17th, 2009 16:48
Point taken KJ – I didn’t mean to offend. I have backed BUTLERS CABIN at 20s and I am still glad I did but previously on this thread many people erred and its getting shorter and shorter. It’s great news for the layers and for those who got 20s who can cover their investment by laying the same. I did not mean to be intentionally arrogant, just tongue in cheek. Apologies. x x
#353
February 17th, 2009 17:01
This years shortlist has to be :-
Rambling Minster
Hot Weld
Black Apalachi
Garde Champetre
State of Play
Himalayan Trail
I always think it’s important to back a horses for the race ante-post who act different going – i.e. BA and GC will go on soft and the rest are really good ground horses although Rambo showed versatility last Saturday – very impressive – in the form of his life.
#354
February 17th, 2009 17:03
My other tip is to back BA now and then lay off in-running. Look at his Becher Chase win – led all the way round – he will trade a real short price in-running and this could be a good tactic. I’m on at 28-1 and think that is real value.
#355
February 17th, 2009 17:13
Three of the last ten winners had spent a year or more out with injury but came back as strong as ever – consider the Hot Weld angle – massive success over longer trips on good or quicker ground – runs tomorrow at Doncaster for his prep run – I will be watching but Ferdy reportedly has him back to his best.
The downside probably is that he could have done with a few more runs! Everyone agree?
#356
February 17th, 2009 17:19
Thanks for that Rascal, I know from last years run ins with Wacky that the written word can kinda morph its meaning! and feeling strongly about something is hard to put across without being taken a bit the wrong way. One minute I was happily catching up here with another 100posts+ since I last looked! and the next I felt rather annoyed and had to say something …and didn’t delete;)
Got to say I am overwhelmed by the input on this new thread, may have to make notes soon! Some fresh keen talent has emerged here and great to see some real oldies(no offence meant) in Stats man, Thaimark and Miinnehoma back!
#357
February 17th, 2009 17:22
Himalayan Trail seems popular with many on here. I’d be worried that he had only had the 8 chase runs, which is less than other National winners. Also, will ge get in? He’s currently no. 67 so it must be borderline.
#358
February 17th, 2009 17:35
That is my exact issue with Himalayan Trail – only 8 chases so far and with them 2 Pulled Ups this season. Again it is 67 on the list so literally touch and go if it makes it in – of course if balloted out money back but cant seem to rule in or out at the moment.
#359
February 17th, 2009 17:43
Afternoon lads,
I was looking through the form for Himalayan Trail and i must admit i found excuses for this poor runs this year, and thats always a good thing in the National because the featherweight he has been allocated comes into play, in a big way! My concern is that he wont get in, number 67 in the list? I am concerned enough that Hot Weld will struggle to make it in, and that is only 63…..
Looking through Rambo’s form (yes i know we are not talking about this one anymore) but I’m still not convinced. Pulled up in Scottish National 2007 and was never travelling well, has won over 4m on soft ground carrying 11st 7 but he had very little opposition. As i said before, i think the value has gone on this one, sure to start shorter on the day i suppose tho, all good for traders.
Butler’s Cabin and Simon are exactly the same as Bewleys Berry’s chances last year in mind. I spent all the buildup saying he would not stay and when push came to shove he didnt get home (did well to get 5th place money). Nothing has convinced me that Simon or Butler’s Cabin will a) jump round 2 circuits and b)have enough gas at the end to contest the finish
Why on earth Butler’s Cabin is 12/1?!! and joint favourite? in my mind, thats madness
Looking forward to Hot Weld tomorrow at Donny
#360
February 17th, 2009 18:06
Agree with you Russell, don’t thin Butler’s will get round – he is a renound quirky customer – also, I think McCoy will ride him and feel that he is cursed in this race – think back to him coasting along on Clan Royal and getting carried out by the loose horse! Think he will be like Scudamore and Francome – another of the greatest jockeys never to win the big race.
Is it me or is Garde Champetre only entered in the National at the moment – nothing on the RC website to say he is going for the X Country – this would give him a better chance I feel. Something I don’t like in my national bets is those that have run at the festival that same year – it is too taxing on the horse and the big race comes round far too quick – anybody disagree with this? Could affect State of Play for example if right.
#361
February 17th, 2009 18:09
Indeed Stayer. Him.T is inexperienced and hasn’t beaten much either, borderline in many respects! The weight and his progress last year in spring the only reasons I haven’t rule him out.
My pick of the featherweights no suprise here is still Rambo, just hope his impressive win hasn’t taken too much out of him, every horse has its limit, as we saw in the same race I think with Mon Mome and Cornish there great runs ended atleast temporarily.
Hot Weld tmw! interesting doesn’t he have a rather low TS?
did anyone look while I was away into TS chase stats in relation to recent TSs for winning the GN?
#362
February 17th, 2009 18:23
hot weld best chase ts 114 best hurdle ts 78
cornish setts owner on atr this afternoon saying he expects it to line up in the national.
#363
February 17th, 2009 19:00
Beware – long post!
Unless something really radical happens in the Bobbyjo Chase on Sunday I am going to do my best not to have any more bets until the week of the race – I can’t see any more value anywhere (I can see a lot of horses who are not value, but I’m not a layer)
During race week I am going back to basics – class, trip, form and preparation – all the clues should be out by then
However, the Grand National is usually won by a horse who has been prepared specifically for the race and not entered for the hell of it and prepared as an afterthought
This means that the trainers will want to find out whether their animal has a chance – the winner gets a fortune! – the best way to find out is to run it in a decent staying handicap or over stiff fences or both
It is no coincidence, in my mind at least, that the last umpteen winners had placed in (or won) a National (Grand, Irish, Scottish, Welsh, Midlands, Kerry, Borders etc) or the Beecher Chase or Racing Post Chase or a Hennessy (5th or better) or the Gold Cup at Cheltenham (5th of better)
These races are all over 3m+ and are either full of classy types or over stiff fences that take some jumping or both – jumping and stamina – BOTH are required to take the National
(The Eider is normally quite poor and COD had already qualified with a previous finish in the Hennessy behind Trabolgan)
Done some research and the following (in descending order of weight down to horse 70) have placed in or won one of the above races:
Exotic Dancer
Madison Du Berlais
Snoopy Loopy
Notre Pere
Air Force One
War Of Attrition
Snowy Morning
Cane Brake
Knowhere
Comply Or Die
Monkerhostin
Ollie Magern
Black Apalachi
Hear The Echo
King Johns Castle
Miko De Beauchene
My Will
Eurotrek
State of Play
Mon Mome
Silver Birch
Butlers Cabin
Parsons Legacy
L’Ami
Simon
Cornish Sett
Rambling Minster
Trabolgan
Hot Weld
Character Building
Himalayan Trail
That’s 31 in total – if they all line up that’s some staying chase!
In the coming weeks – by studying preparation, closer inspection of staying prowess and recent form in more detail – I think this will come down to 4 or 5 (plus a sensible application of some other trends)
I’m already on Rambo and State of Play – I need 2 or 3 more
In coming to this conclusion I have laid off bets on:
Darkness
Brooklyn Brownie
Reveillez
Smaller bets survive on:
Cane Brake
War Of Attrition
Snowy Morning (placed ages ago before he was so poor – looking for good run on Saturday or probably have to write off)
Does anyone think I should add any further races to my list – Bobbyjo Chase or any other chase in Ireland?
#364
February 17th, 2009 19:00
SILVER BIRCH will swerve the Cheltenham Festival nextmonth and instead run over hurdles before heading to the Grand National.
His trainer Gordon Elliott had been toying running him in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase, the race in which he finished second to Heads Onthe Ground before winning the National two years ago, but a change of plan has now been made.
The recent point-to-point winner had been expected to run at Punchestown on Wednesday but is now an intended runner in a point-to-point at Bennettsbridge in Kilkenny on Sunday instead.
Elliot said on Tuesday: “We decided to give Punchestown [over hurdles] on Wednesday a miss and the plan now is to run in anotherpoint-to-point in Kilkenny this Sunday and then go back over hurdles at Navan on the Sunday after Cheltenham. All going well, he’ll then go back to Liverpool.
“We decided it was the wrong thing to do to go back over the banks at Cheltenham as he might only get one more chance to go back for the National again.
“He’s in great nick and he worked very well this morning, so fingers crossed wecan get him to Aintree in one piece.”
#365
February 17th, 2009 19:04
KING JOHNS CASTLE, off the track since finishing second in last year’s John Smith’s Grand National, will make his reappearance over hurdles either at Navan on February 28 or at Naas on March 8.
Arthur Moore, trainer of the JP McManus-owned ten-year-old, said: ” We’re looking at starting King Johns Castle back in either a rated hurdle at Navan or in the same handicap hurdle at Naas which he won last year before going on to finish second in the National.”
BLACK APALACHI, winner of the Becher Chase in November, will warm up forAintree in the Grade 2 At The Races Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse on Saturday.
The ten-year-old is being aimed at the the John Smith’s Grand National after thriving in testing conditions when winning the Becher Chase by 74 lengths. However, he has only been seen once since, running over hurdles.
Trainer Dessie Hughes said: “Black Apalachi is in good form and Saturday’s race fits in nicely with Aintree coming up. The ground is very important for him and we’re hoping for a wet spring.”
Southern Vic, Snowy Morning, Chelsea Harbour, who finished a remote third behind Neptune Collonges in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown, and One Cool Cookie are the other Grand National entries among the nine possibles for Saturday’s 3m 1f contest.
#366
February 17th, 2009 19:22
I agree, most value gone but feel that if Hot Weld runs well tomorrow, his price may tumble – 46-1 on betfair available now – worth a cover bet at least – doubt is whether he will get in of course
#367
February 17th, 2009 20:38
Hi Guys any number crunching thoughts on Hot Weld’s TS – any probs?
#368
February 17th, 2009 20:59
Hi everyone,
Just found this site,Really interesting,I aint really into trends but great reading everynight when i get in from work,
In tha past few years ive backed (ante post)bobbyjo 33/1
numbersixvalverde 40/1 comply or die 98/1 on betfair,This year i fancy and have backed butlers cabin20/1 , rambling minster 40/1 andsouthern vic 40/1 and battlecry 50s.hopefully get a place with one to get a decent ammount back at least,regards
#369
February 17th, 2009 21:07
hi guys on hot weld …… just been digging and found this from the times dated 21st jan …….. ferdy murphy :
“We’re desperate to get a run into Hot Weld and we want to go for the Sky Bet Chase. If they get a deluge at Doncaster, we’ll think again – he has the option of the William Hill Chase at Cheltenham but it’s Aintree that matters and he’s a horse you can get right for one race.”
#370
February 17th, 2009 21:59
i still think 33s on Hot Weld is madness
The only problem with him is we havent seen him in a long lay off. A nice run tomorrow and a solid effort at Cheltenham, he could easily be 16/1 or shorter on the day.
If he makes the line up in shape, carrying 10st on his back…he should have a great chance
#371
February 17th, 2009 22:09
RE: STRIKE RATE
“miinnehoma Says:
February 16th, 2009 at 11:53 pm
To Crisp 73,
Spot on – very clever and kind of you to mention that little stat gem from last year. It certainly put the tin hat on D’Argent for me,with only 39% strike rate but unlike RM, he had other faults.
In fact systemsman said he was going to put that stat in his bag of tricks for this year.But I think he must have forgot, otherwise he would not have been touting the 3 donkeys some time ago. ie Black Apalachi, Hear the Echo and Chelsea Harbour.
Re – RM
Your right,RM has a 40% strike rate – this would be a new low but on the bright side only 2% below the lowest but 14/18 did have 50%+. Some stats will change slightly each year, so if RM wins,42% becomes 40%. No big deal if everything else is ok.”
Reply:
Sorry everyone the stike rate is in my GN Black Book (I cant remember who first posted this but it was very good info)but what with so many other factors/trends I have forgot to use it. Must now do more homework and find out the stike rate (1/2 or 3rd in Chases) of all the leading runners.
Anyone done this already – if so can you please, please post it.
I make Rambling Minster 7/15 runs 46.6 % strike rate so he qualifies (but not under the better 50% 15/17 trend (last years trend, I have not updated for the GN 2008 yet)
#372
February 17th, 2009 22:12
Looking through Rambo’s form (yes i know we are not talking about this one anymore) but I’m still not convinced. Pulled up in Scottish National 2007 and was never travelling well, has won over 4m on soft ground carrying 11st 7 but he had very little opposition. As i said before, i think the value has gone on this one, sure to start shorter on the day i suppose tho, all good for traders.
Comply or Die had a similar poor run in the Scottish National on his record. Dont forget the Scottish National is always at the end of the season, and that year COD had had a tough year….maybe the same could be said of Rambling Minster. You can’t not be impressed by his run on Saturday, I think anyway.
#373
February 17th, 2009 22:16
Rambling Minster is 6/15 in the strike rate department Systemsman, which is 40%. Still looks good though and he is at the top of the tree stats wise at the moment for me.
#374
February 17th, 2009 23:46
Some very interesting posts although ‘death by stats’ springs to mind
I’ve never really been one for stats, instead going with current and past form and instinct..would welcome any comments on the following horses some of whom I like:
Butler’s Cabin – don’t think I’ll be backing this one but it did seem to be going well until it fell last year..and for those wanting to see a good run, am i right in thinking that the form leading up to last year’s National wasn’t that great?
Comply or Die – backed it last year as it jumped two out in the Eider and a certain bookies was caught sleeping as they had left the book up
just thought well he’ll stay and he’s classy..any idea why the form is poor? am I wrong to feel that he might just remember last year’s race and produce another big effort?
King John’s Castle – I saw someone say he may lack the necessary ‘class’..one of the reasons I backed him last year was because i thought he had a bit of class..and the way he cruised up to the pack of four with two to go last year was impressive..any thoughts?
Cloudy Lane – have backed it this year..Does he stay? How much more weight will he have this year? one year older, one year stronger, one year wiser?
Reveillez – have a feeling about this one..has injury problems but i think it’s a classy animal who might just show that class at Aintree
also like Hot Weld, Chelsea Harbour and Roll Along
How far down the list do you think it will be to get a run?
OT – but does anyone know where Mister Top Notch may run next?
Thanks.
#375
February 17th, 2009 23:51
I think 1, 2, 3 strike rates are important (although a ball ache to work out). They are certainly fascinating. However, I think they can become distorted by horses racing in poor quality races, especially early in their careers.
For example, Red Marauder (2001 winner) notched up wins in his first five chase runs, three of which were in very poor C3 or C4 races worth just a few grand each. The prizes hardly covered the petrol money and one was a three-runner contest so he would have struggled to be out of the frame!
I would be interested to see strike rates for C2 and C1 races only of say eight runners or more. (I know, even more of a ball ache!!)
Also, there is a danger that some very good performances are lost in a statistical fog, such as RM’s 4 length defeat to Kilbeggan Blade at Sandown in December when he finished 5th out of 16 runners.
It was an impressive run and, with hindsight, the springboard for something special. His eye-catching fourth just a few lengths behind Cloudy Lane and COD in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock in December 2007 would also be seen as a black mark against him.
Having said all that….I do think such stats have merit, provided they are qualified and, like many others on this site, I’m really grateful to those who have the patience, persistence and expertise to share them with us.
#376
February 18th, 2009 01:52
Have to agree with Russell – treat Hot Weld with caution – this horse won a Scottish National and whatever the Gold Cup is called that Tommo gets excited about every year but means very little (he beat nothing in a worthless race) – both on ground that suited – Grand National is now typically run with a tiny bit of give because it is so valuable – no Good to Firm in April in Liverpool unless global warming goes bananas because stakes are too high
#377
February 18th, 2009 02:11
Going last ten years 99-08 – G, G, Hvy ,G ,G ,G ,GS ,GS ,G ,G
#378
February 18th, 2009 06:01
I’ve been flicking through a few of last years OLBG GN posts and some things are worthy of note.
1)Kilbeggan Blade and Parsons Legacy were withdrawn from the National on 18th March 2008 along with 8 others (didn’t know KB was entered last year – pu in Scotish National instead). I’d be wary about backing either of those before April.
2) Here’s some of the winners requirements from last years blog (Systemsman actually)
Pre race RPR of at last 144 10/10
……..
9/10 trends
Recorded a Topspeed figure of at least 128 9/10
Three to five outings since start of August 9/10
OR rating of 136 to 147 9/10 {odd one out was OR 128
Can somebody apply these figures, especially TS & OR to some of the fringe horse like Kilbeggan (TS 124 you say), Himalayan Trail, Hot Weld & Southern Vic and tell us which are no-hopers? (granted most may improve with a run before race day but useful nonetheless).
3) This year there are 3 weeks between Cheltenham & GN. Silver Birch win came with a 32 day break. As we are trying to find the winner I think it’s fair to discount all those running at the Festival!?
4) We seem to be extending trends this year but the 11st rule should be set in stone! Hedgehunter has been the most outstanding GN horse of recent time and his win off 11-1 came as no great suprise. Until the stats consistently prove otherwise, we should strike through anything that will carry over 11st (I don’t see another Hedgehunter running this year).
Weight rises (or not) and the actual top 40 are major unknowns so I guess they’ll be little conviction on a top 3 until end March (but a lot of discussion!).
#379
February 18th, 2009 07:00
By way of clarification on 4) above, I know the 11st rule is nothing new. There seems to be a consensus this year that the contest may go to a classy type around 11 stone or more, but the stats say that is unlikely to happen. Anything from State of Play or above should be put to one side on a B list to be reviewed in the unlikely event that weights don’t rise by 5/6 lbs.
#380
February 18th, 2009 09:18
ThaiMark, I think you can’t say the 11’1 rule is set in stone this year as the rules of the race have changed with top weight going from 11’12 to 11’10 so naturally we should review this and take it into account and possibly give a bit more account to horses near the mark. Having said that I think Butler’s is the highest in the weights that I’ve backed so definitely concentrating a the trends OR region in my case.
Re; Rambling’s run on Saturday (haven’t mentioned it yet) I notice a lot of people were quick to draw comparison to CoD. But no one compared it to Cloudy Lane (probably people not so keen to make that comparison), Cloudy’s form before last year 5111, Ramblings current form 511… One more win between now and Aintree and it’d be identical! Is this horse going to be over the top come the 4th?
#381
February 18th, 2009 09:20
War Of Attrition is a better horse than Hedgehunter in my opinion – granted he might not stay (Strong Gale) and his proposed run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup might take it out of him
But if the GN really is his target and he does stay I think he would take all the beating off 11’1
#382
February 18th, 2009 09:27
Brody – I think Rambo is straight to GN – no more prep runs
#383
February 18th, 2009 10:23
Pablo- I think you’re spot on with the list of important races- see some of my earlier post, esp 4th Feb on previous thread.
A top 5 in Hennessey; top3 in Irish,Scots,Welsh Nationals; top 2 in a race over GN fences(but not Nat. itself) covers 23 of the previous 29 winners, 15/18, 11/11. The other six had all won at least three chases at 24f or more with at least one of those wins at 28f or futher. Interestingly of those six they either had either ran in previous GN or had won over 32f.
In the last forty years only Gay Trip ’70, Specify ’71, Red Rum ’73 and Lucius ’78 didn’t share this profile but all had C1 top3 place.
In fact there is only winner in the last forty years without a C1 top3 place and that is Hallo Dandy – still researching.
#384
February 18th, 2009 10:25
I see as of today Rambling Minsters official figures are
OR 149 RPR 155 TS 144
#385
February 18th, 2009 10:29
With regards the weight of a horse come the day of the race and the whole 11st 1lbs debate. I prefer to use the stat that no horse has won carrying more than 12lbs above bottom weight. This then allows for changes in the bottom weight each year and still keeps the stat strong.
What do others think?
#386
February 18th, 2009 10:36
Puzzled – I know very encouraging stats for Rambo!
Crisp – general view seems to be that the quality of the National field is improving and the prize money on offer certainly is – the two normally go hand in hand
Does this mean that some of the key indicators from say 30 years ago have less relevance due to the changing nature of the race?
Or should we take the view that this is simply a unique race for thorough stayers and sound jumpers – always has been and always will be? And therefore some indicators are just as relevant now as they were 30 or 40 years ago
#387
February 18th, 2009 11:08
Stephen and ThaiMark good comments, but with the possibility of a change of classier top weighted horses entering – note the word ‘change’ – then max top weight or max extra weight in comparison may need tweeking/given allowance.
Again I think our thoughts are helpful to each other and we’ll hopefully get their as a team.
Howver, ThaiMark, although you seem very sure re max top weight, I for one won’t neccessarily be being so rigid in evaluations.
Open mind, to a changing race will catch the birdy (hopefully, lol).
#388
February 18th, 2009 11:32
“Or should we take the view that this is simply a unique race for thorough stayers and sound jumpers – always has been and always will be? And therefore some indicators are just as relevant now as they were 30 or 40 years ago”
I think so. The nature of the Gold Cup has changed in recent years in that if you go back to the 80s and even the 90s the winner was typically a horse that had plenty of stamina and a touch of class. Races like the Hennessy and Welsh National were decent trials. However, most of the recent winners can hardly be described as having bags of stamina and Best Mate, Kicking King, WOA and Kauto Star all had high-class form over 2m/2m4f. It’s class that won them their Gold Cups and not stamina.
Now whilst class might be enough to get a horse home over 3m2f at level weights I still think you need a thorough stayer to win the National and for that reason I think you still need horses with proven stamina. I know some people (including, incredibly, some trainers) still have the view that decent 2m4f horses make good National horses because they can hunt round the first circuit etc. This is an illusory view that has no empirical grounding. Stayers win Nationals not two-and-a-half-milers. I can’t see this changing.
As for the weight carried by horses. There is this debate as to relative vs actual weight but over extreme distances I think actual weight is important. Phil Smith has been cutting the top horses some slack by compressing the weights for a number of years but still not that many horses with more than 11st on their back make the frame. In fact is that the quality of the race increasing but it’s not just increased at the top but through the whole field. The last few years the bottom weight has been well above 10st meaning all horses running from inside the handicap. Gone are the days when you can put a line through a load of horses running from out of the handicap that have little realistic chance. It’s a much more competitive race nowadays and whilst the lowering of the top weight to 11-10 should in theory help the class horses, they still have to give a lot of weight, over 4m4f, to horses at the bottom, and I still think that horses lower in the weights hold an advantage.
#389
February 18th, 2009 11:57
mornin all,
re state of play running intentions.
read trainer comments on racing post news archive on 8th feb 08.trainer says no point going anywhere cheltenham.grand national could be the one.
my short list at mo.
rambling minster.
him/trail.
butlers cabin.
state of play worries me as danger.watched last run,jumped well,but is small horse for big weight
#390
February 18th, 2009 11:58
should read anywhere near cheltenham.re state of play.sorry
#391
February 18th, 2009 12:09
Stayer – agree that weight carried is very important
I had massive bet on What’s Up Boys in 2002 and he got beat in last 100 yards carrying 11’6
Anyone’s guess as to what the threshold is but I would say that anything over 11’5 should have a line through it
But 11’1 clearly has been achieved so who’s to say that 11’2 or 11’3 is not possible?
As for small horses carrying weight – State of Play caried 11’4 to win Hennessy in Soft ground as a 6 year old – weight will not be the reason if he fails in my opinion
#392
February 18th, 2009 12:12
I shall be putting a line through anything that on the day is carrying 12lbs+ above the bottom weight.
#393
February 18th, 2009 12:12
sorry should say weight carried will not be the reason
clearly something might be well in on the handicap and beat him – Rambo?
#394
February 18th, 2009 12:17
fair comment pablo,re s.o.p.weight carrying.thanx.
food for thought.
#395
February 18th, 2009 12:25
“But 11′1 clearly has been achieved so who’s to say that 11′2 or 11′3 is not possible?”
Pablo,
Everything’s possible but is it that probable. Red Rum carted 12-00 around and others since have carried 11st or more. Hedgehunter was the last to do it and hindsight tells us that the horse was still on the upgrade and was well handicapped – he had the class to finish 2nd in the Gold Cup the next season.
But what about this year? It looks likely that ED and MDB will not run, which will leave the weights to rise 5lbs and Snoopy Loopy to shoulder 11-10. That would mean that all the horses down to L’Antartique will carry 11st or more. Now if you put a line through the novices, 6yos, 7yos and blatant non-stayers you’re left with a group of horses that look pretty exposed and/or badly treated by the handicapper. The only ones I would hesitate to put a line through would be WOA, My Will, Comply Or Die, Miko De Beauchene and Black Apalachi. Those horses would have some sort of chance though Black Apalachi and Miko both need plenty of juice in the ground. Aside from those I can’t see the winner coming from the 11st + brigade this year.
#396
February 18th, 2009 12:31
Stayer – I also agree about some trainers thinking they can turn 2m 4f horses into GN winners – this is clearly to our advantage as punters – the more the merrier really
Having said that it will be fascinating to see how WOA gets on should he turn up – I suspect that he will not stay the trip (Strong Gale influence) but for me he’s the class act in the race at the weights if he does – small wager at 50/1 seems a reasonable punt (when did you ever get 50/1 on a Gold Cup winner?)
#397
February 18th, 2009 12:39
“Having said that it will be fascinating to see how WOA gets on should he turn up”
Yes, as I said in my previous post he would be one horse in the 11st+ group that I couldn’t dismiss entirely, especially if the ground was genuinely good on the big day. But as I also said further up, I think his class got him home over 3m2f but class won’t be enough to get him to see out 4m4f. I think i’m letting my heart rule me here as I had a big punt (by my standards) on him when he won his Gold Cup. I must be more objective.
#398
February 18th, 2009 12:41
By the way – does anyone have any news on Exotic Dancer?
O’Neill on weights day – “Exotic Dancer is a decent horse and you’d have to really expect top weight. He normally jumps well and, if he were to settle for the first mile, he’d have a decent chance. The plan is to go straight for the Gold Cup, win that and then win the National!”
Maybe a bit tongue-in-cheek but didn’t rule it out – weights might not go up
#399
February 18th, 2009 12:43
Stayer – yeah I backed WOA for Gold Cup too – sentimental bets normally losing bets…
#400
February 18th, 2009 12:56
“- sentimental bets normally losing bets…”
Indeed Pablo. Sentimental betting puts you on a fast-track to the poor-house!
As for ED. If Denman were running I think connections would let him take his chance but as Denman isn’t, and AP will be claimed to ride one of the J P McManus horses, I reckon he will bypass the race.
#401
February 18th, 2009 13:52
Anyone have any views on in-running bettng for the big race? I am sure that Black Apalachi will lead from the off and if completing the first circuit in tact is likely to trade short in running. This will probably depend on the ground of course – needs plenty of juice – with our climate at present its anyones guess what the going will be on the day but you can pretty much be sure that it will be at least on the soft side of good – Aintree do water regularly now for safety reasons primarily. Bit worried about GC and HW not getting in – went down the list again and was struggling to pick out 26 runners that probably won’t run – any thoughts on this guys?
#402
February 18th, 2009 13:59
I think you can tell from the end of Jonjo’s quote that he is clearly on the wind up and taking the interview that seriously.
#403
February 18th, 2009 14:02
RE: green st. Says:
February 18th, 2009 at 11:57 am
mornin all,
re state of play running intentions.
read trainer comments on racing post news archive on 8th feb 08.trainer says no point going anywhere cheltenham.grand national could be the one.
Hi Green St, but your post doesn’t make clear if it’s Chelt or GN he’s going to/could be the one? Please clarify thanks.
Can u also post up link to artice. Ta much
#404
February 18th, 2009 14:15
Hi Showlad just to clarify – I think what Evan Williams said was “there’s no point going anywhere near cheltenham” in reference to sops targets being either the grand nat , the betfred or the scottish nat . i reckon theres next to no chance he’ll appear at chelts and hes likely to plump for one of the three above . whether he has a prep run before these 3 i guess that remains to be seen.hope this helps
#405
February 18th, 2009 14:19
I think it would be foolish to rule out runners who have run at Cheltenham purely for the reason is it 3 weeks before this year. You could run on the Tuesday and therefore have had your last run 25 days before. Horses who have won having had a ran within the last 25 days are;
2003 Montys Pass
2002 Bindaree
2000 Papillon
1999 Bobbyjo
1997 Lord Gyllene
1996 Rough Quest
1994 Miinnehoma
1991 Seagram
1990 Mr Frisk
Rule them out at your peril I think!
Perhaps more concerning for me would be Silver Birhc’s build up. Is it sufficient to run him in two point-to-point races and then once over hurdles? What do people think? Personally I wont be rushing to back him without a chase run, as he is a horse who has had his fair share of problems. I may decide to have a small saver on him nearer the time, as he is certainly capable of winning, but I wont be rushing to do it until he has come through his next 2 runs in good shape.
I am also concerned by the number of GN winners in recent years who have never won again over fences. Winning the GN can take so much out of horse, regardless of what looks a favourable weight, I wonder if Silver Birch can win the big one again…
#406
February 18th, 2009 14:38
I don’t think the National is a stayers versus class issue. Both are vital when choosing from a varied shortlist. You need to find the classiest horse that appears as thought it will stay, which has had the right preparation on the lowest weight! There probably isn’t a great deal of relevance in looking at the Nationals as far back as the 1970′s to choose this year’s winner – though we all seem to when we want to, to rule out 7yr olds, 13 yr olds etc – other than looking for trends that have lasted a generation which is what interested me.(C1 top 3 place for example) And if anything those observations I made on the winner’s profiles are getting stronger. 23/29, 15/18, 11/11.
As I said in earlier posts whatever method you use to find a shortlist I personally think you should weight it with much more relevance on what has happened since, and including, 1990 after fences were modified after ’89 National.
The handicapper has been compressing the weights since 2000 but still nothing has carried a weight to victory anything like pre 1990. Grittar, Aldaniti, Corbiere, Maori Venture, Rhyme N Reason all carried weights of 10-13 or more in the 1980′s alone- OK so there were plenty of low quality horses in some of those races and plenty were racing out of the handicap- but only Hedgehunter has carried 10-13 or more since 1990 and the year he did so 10st 5lbs was bottom weight. But of course it’s wise to look at slight deviations in what has gone before.
#407
February 18th, 2009 14:40
Thanks Silver Birch. Greens St’s quote seems to be re the Grand National not any 3 of them. Do u know if it was the GN specific or any 3 that he was ref to (v important)?
Ta much in advance.
#408
February 18th, 2009 14:48
In my last post I meant that the profile getting stronger is the top5 Hennessey etc. Including that with the 3chase wins at 24f or more with one win at 28f or more covers the past 29 winners, 36/40.
#409
February 18th, 2009 14:49
“I think it would be foolish to rule out runners who have run at Cheltenham purely for the reason is it 3 weeks before this year.”
This depends on the horse and the race I think. As I said further up, all of SOP’s seven wins have come after a break of 5 weeks or more, so I think he goes best fresh. But for a horse that takes it’s racing really well, a run at the Festival might be what is required to bring it on so it’s in top shape for Aintree. To me it’s more of a question of how hard a race the horse has. I think the Gold Cup is always going to be a hard race. Carrying 11-10 around 3m2f of Prestbury Park is never going to be easy and it’s a tough race just 3 weeks before Aintree. I would be very wary about backing a horse that has run in the Gold Cup. If a horse is to run at Cheltenham I like to see it run in a race like the Racing Post Plate. 2m5f should be a bit sharp for a National contender but a staying on peformance to finish in 5th or 6th would bring a horse on nicely without taking too much out of them.
#410
February 18th, 2009 15:00
In the last 50 or so years, Rough Quest aside, horses who place in the GC do not go on to win at Aintree.
The last horse to win at the festival and then win the GN was Seagram (I think it was him, odnt have mmy book ‘The A-Z of the Grand National’ with me – great book by the way!!) I cant remember who the last horse before him was, but I know it was a long long LONG time ago.
Bindaree and Silver Birch in the last ten years have run at Cheltenham and then won the GN.
So yes, definately a big negative if you run at Cheltenham, but not a complete no-no. If Garde Champetre/State of Play were to win at Cheltenham, I would certainly be put off having a major bet on them.
#411
February 18th, 2009 15:09
sorry didnt make that clear,
got story off racingpost.com/news/newspaper_archive.sd.
just trying to say very unlikely s.o.p will run at cheltenham.trainer says aintree,scots nat,or bet 365 gold cup at sandown.looking at.quote
“but while not cleared it with owners,just think aintree could be the race that really suits him”.
hope this helps.
#412
February 18th, 2009 15:13
To Daniel Edwards – correct me if I’m wrong Daniel but I don’t think any of the horses you mention actually ran at the festival that same year – I believe that it is the gruelling test of cheltenham that affects horses ability to cope with the marathon test in April. All festival races are run at a franetic pace where stamina is at the forefront and therefore leave the horses leggy when taking on Aintree. Look back through history and even for the other National meeting races, there aren’t many horses that have completed the double i.e. champion hurdle then Aintree hurdle. Corect me if I’m wrong though!!
#413
February 18th, 2009 15:21
Following on from an earlier post.
GN winners who raced 25 days or less in the 80′s;
82 *Grittar, 16 days
83 *Corbiere, 23 days
84 Hallo Dandy, 21 days
85 Last Suspect, 25 days
86 *West Tip, 23 days
87 Maori Venture, 22 days
88 *Rhyme N Reason, 23 days
*ran at Cheltenham, only Corbiere placed.
#414
February 18th, 2009 15:27
“‘The A-Z of the Grand National’ with me – great book by the way!!)”
I picked this up from the Racing Post website a couple of weeks ago and have just started reading it. When I opened if for the first time and saw the best part of 600 pages of solid text I was a little put off but it makes easier reading than I thought it would.
If SOP runs in any race at the Festival it’s a big negative as all his winning has been done after a rest. Your point about horses winning at Cheltenham is in line with my comments about hard races. You would expect that a horse to have won or been placed in a race at the Festival to have had a harder race than one that has been popped round to finish mid-division.
#415
February 18th, 2009 15:33
This website is quality – some amazing info being thrown up!!
#416
February 18th, 2009 15:44
The Stayer Says:
February 18th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
“‘The A-Z of the Grand National’ with me – great book by the way!!)”
I picked this up from the Racing Post website a couple of weeks ago and have just started reading it. When I opened if for the first time and saw the best part of 600 pages of solid text I was a little put off but it makes easier reading than I thought it would.
See those 600 pages, it just got me excited!!! I skipped the odd winning horse etc, but pretty much read the whole thing.
#417
February 18th, 2009 15:58
Hot Weld – old nag or serious Grand National contender?
I vote for old nag but am prepared to be proved wrong…
#418
February 18th, 2009 16:11
showlad – evan williams comments on sop below
“I can’t see any point in going anywhere near Cheltenham and if the National came right, we’d get in there off 10 stone.
“I think he’s had a great little season so far but it
was always my intention not to make the same mistake as last year in running him too often.
“I’ll look at the Scottish National and the Whitbread (bet365 Gold Cup) at Sandown.
“But while I have not cleared it with the owners, I just think Aintree could be the race that really suits him.”
#419
February 18th, 2009 16:26
rip, rip tear tear is the sound of Puzzled tearing up his anti post savers on Hot Weld
#420
February 18th, 2009 16:26
hot weld – pulled up not even half way ………….. big red line through me thinks.
#421
February 18th, 2009 16:32
It’s won last 4 times on GF but even allowing for softish ground that was a poor effort – training performance of all time if that wins GN
#422
February 18th, 2009 16:32
HW also seemed to jump like a dog and looked on his toes at the start – something definitely amiss although it was heavily backed on the exchanges. Not sure they will even go for the National on the back of that performance although they could have just been giving him a pipe owner – over 2 years off track, he clearly needs it!!!
#423
February 18th, 2009 17:41
Crisp re your message:
“In my last post I meant that the profile getting stronger is the top5 Hennessey etc. Including that with the 3chase wins at 24f or more with one win at 28f or more covers the past 29 winners, 36/40.”
Can you list the horses that pass this test of the top 70 please?
I think we need to try and agree a top 7 or 8 trends. The one’s that I would live or die by are weight (nothing over 11st), age (only 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12 year olds), ditch novices, ditch FR breds (I know not everyone agree with that one!).
I am interested in Crisp’s note above and number of days since last run, number of lifetime chase runs etc. But is there a will to agree a top 6 or 7 trends that are factually agreed as being strongest? I already have most of the trends plotted across a spreadsheet for the top 70 in the weights – but not the interesting one you raise Crisp (3 wins over 24f and one over at least 28f).
Offered before – but happy to share this with others adding greatly to the debate.
Thanks
#424
February 18th, 2009 17:48
I agree re too many trends.
My 5 to live and die by are;
1- AGE 8-12 yo
2- WEIGHT 11_02 or less for me
3- RPR of 145 MINIMUM
4- A 1-2-3 finish in a C1 Chase over at least 3 miles.
5- No runs within the past 2 weeks, but at least one in the last 7 weeks.
And they are in order of preference as well.
Why doesn’t everybody post their top 5?!
#425
February 18th, 2009 18:02
“Stephen Says:
February 17th, 2009 at 10:16 pm
Rambling Minster is 6/15 in the strike rate department Systemsman, which is 40%. Still looks good though and he is at the top of the tree stats wise at the moment for me”.
Correct Stephen – apologies – I counted one Hurdle race as a Chase by mistake. It is a little concern about Rambo but would only be a small change in the trends (42% down to 40%)so I am not overworried – its these small changes in the trends we should expect. Still the best and NO 1 bet for the GN currently despite some miner concerns (but I worry about all my short list right up to GN day).
Looks like e dont have to worry about Hot Weld as any sort of possible competition.
#426
February 18th, 2009 18:45
Just to say hello to all you stats people. Keep the good work up, cus it makes great reading. Its a bit early for any input from me just yet but does anybody know whats happening with Fundamentalist, Reveillez, or Fleet Street???? They are on my list at the moment as interesting outsiders. Thanx
#427
February 18th, 2009 18:49
Thanks Daniel – I agree that is what we need to do now. I like your 5!
#428
February 18th, 2009 19:04
My top 5 in order are:
1- AGE 8-12 yo
2- WEIGHT 11 or less (for me)
3. No 7 year old or Novices
4. FR Bred
5. A 1-2-3 finish in a C1 Chase over at least 3 miles.
Interested in Crisps 24f and 28f wins too though!
#429
February 18th, 2009 19:16
The ante-post trends I stick to rigidly are as follows:-
* Must be aged 8-12
* Must carry less than 11 stone
* Must have won a chase worth at least £20k
* Must be priced no bigger than 50/1 in betting following announcement of weights
Then ideally…..
* Has won or been placed over 3m 4f +
* No more than 2 career falls
* Official Rating of 136-150 (used to only go up to 144 but being more careful this yr)
There are other stats that will come into play later, e.g. I would not back anything that has run at the Cheltenham Festival (not everyone may agree on this!) & must have run between 3-6 times this season come GN day.
Does anyone have firm views re Top Speed (TS)?
#430
February 18th, 2009 19:36
Posted these further up but here they are again. These are the ones that count for me:
-Won over at least 3m (11/11)
-Won a class 1 or class 2 chase (11/11)
-Originally allotted 9st12-10st13 (10/11)
-Officially rated 136-147 (when weights come out) (10/11)
-Ran between 10 and 27 times over fences (10/11)
After this I go on form, ground etc.
#431
February 18th, 2009 19:44
Foxesfan – Fleet Street due to run on Saturday in Racing Post Chase @ Kempton over 3 miles – currently trading at big odds on Betfair for GN – runs into a place on Saturday and it meets most key trends
#432
February 18th, 2009 19:55
Cheers Pablo – much appreciated
#433
February 18th, 2009 20:00
I’m pretty sure Miinnehoma ran in the Gold Cup the same year he won at Aintree. He chipped his way round in fifth or sixth from memory?
#434
February 18th, 2009 20:01
Hi all.
Just had a sizable and final bet on RAMBLING MINISTER to win.
Aside from getting bogged down on stats, although they are essential in this race.
Sometimes the best choice is staring you in the face and is simpler than it may seem.
To me this horse is an obvious choice after its last performance. Not only is it bang in form, has a perfect weight, faultless jumping credentials, likes good groung and has recent wins over 4m but it also meets all other trends such as age.
Obviously its not garunteed to win but i really dont think you could do worse with your money guys as this looks the best bet in the race by a long shot(just my opinion).
I can see a few holes in almost all other fancies.
I say take the price on this before it goes.
#435
February 18th, 2009 20:34
Stats Man
“Does anyone have firm views re Top Speed (TS)?”
Reply:
Absolute minimum of TS 111 but many will use TS128 minimum(obviously TS 128 [i think its a 10/11 trend] or better is the standard you are looking for but if you only use it you may miss a winner). This could have been more of a problem in the past than now as not all races in Ireland had TS ratings some years ago. I did post the minimum TS ratings last year but cant be bothered looking through 1000 odd posts to find it).
Anyone got the TS ratings for the last 10 and 15 years (best TS rating prior to winning the GN)?
#436
February 18th, 2009 20:53
evnin daniel.my top 5 as follows in order.
rambling minster.
him/trail.
butlers cabin.
looking at
darkness and fleet st.
but who knows a mate.
#437
February 18th, 2009 21:09
My top five are:
Rambling Minster
Kilbeggan blade
Himalayan Trail
Garde Champetre ( saver bet, depending on whether MALE jockey on board)
Fleet Street
Will be backing these again nearer the day once clearer re date of last race.
#438
February 18th, 2009 21:26
My top five are:
Rambling Minister
Kilbeggan Blade
Himalayan Trail
Garde Champetre
Butlers Cabin
Hmmm, i sense a theme appearing here!
#439
February 18th, 2009 21:37
sorry to be boring guys,
1 rambling minster
2 butlers cabin
3 state of play
4 himalayan trail
5 garde champetre
but i think when steady edwards ask for top 5 he was refering to your top 5 pref.trends/stats.
#440
February 18th, 2009 21:40
The stats I shall be using to narrow down the field come race day will be as follows (thanks to great work by everyone on this site)…
1. Age 8 to 12
2. Won 1+ Chases over 3m+
3. Run in 10+ Chases
4. Won a Class 2+ Chase
5. Won a Chase worth £17,000+
6. Weight no greater than 11lbs above bottom weight
7. Top 3 finish in a Class 1 Chase over 3m+
8. Top 3 finish in any of previous 3 runs
9. TS of 128+
10. RPR of 144+
11. Last run no greater than 50 days
12. Top 5 finish in Hennessy
OR Top 3 in Irish, Scots or Welsh National
OR Top 2 in a race over Aintree National fences
OR 3+ Chase wins at 3m+ (one being at 3m 4f+)
Maybe they should change the Christmas song to “The 12 trends of Aintree”
I believe using those stats above on the day of the race will leave you with a few horses to have a wager on. I would also suggest that if a horse meets 9 or 10 of the trends and fails on the others by a small margain then they also come into the reckoning allowing for a slight adjustment in the trends. The trends for me are there to rule out horses with no chance that fail on a large number of them and to point the way to the likely winners.
Trends and common sense is the way to go.
What do others think of this?
#441
February 18th, 2009 22:09
I forgot a win over 3 miles of course as well!! doh! Although if you have placed in a C1 chase over 3 miles or more, you have probably won over 3 miles anyway, or at least shown you stay.
#442
February 18th, 2009 22:19
Oh, and my 5 against the field, in some sort of order;
1 – Rambling Minster
2 – Butlers Cabin
3 – Parsons Legacy
4 – State of Play
5 – Garde Champetre
#443
February 18th, 2009 22:36
hey steady eddy(dan.ed) always thought you talked alot of sense,4 out of 5 aint bad.
#444
February 18th, 2009 22:59
The first forfeit stage is next tuesday (feb 24th)then the second forfeit stage is on the 17th march, can anybody confirm this.
My five-
RAMBLING MINSTER
MY WILL
MON MOME
CHELSEA HARBOUR
BUTLERS CABIN
#445
February 18th, 2009 23:03
Already backed:
Southern Vic (33s)
Rambling Minster (40s)
Further 3 against field:
Butler’s Cabin
Parsons Legacy
Always Waining
#446
February 18th, 2009 23:28
Sorry I am back up from five and possibly not happy with a couple of my ante posts!
Garde Champetre is the one I really feel I’ve possibly changed my mind about, because of relatively slow speed of cross country and lack of C1, think he could get fifth! as he has a good TS! still comparing him in my mind to Spot the Difference can’t see him doing better unless he turns out to love aintree, it is possible. Also think he’ll go to cheltenham and now think this a negative in what could testing conditions.
On the plus side he jumps, he stays he is used to carrying big weights so 10-0 which is likely to go up 5lbs is a good light load.
Stats man and other TS questioners!
This is the stat that I have bought up a few times recently, as I want it reassessed!
When I looked at GN TSs of winners and placed horses and their lifetime chase TS;
which Systemsman seems often in recent years to be achieved in this race itself! a sign of the change in course? so would agree with you if anyone has TS figures of winners before GN this would be very helpful!!!
Anyway the GN TSs ALL above 128 for the winner in the last 10yrs.
SINCE the “winning” exception of Bindaree 129, the winner is no lower than 142 Amberleigh House 2004 and the runner up no lower than 136 Clan Royal 2004 too.
I have no idea what the numbers are measured in, or how.. anyone? but numbers is numbers! and I think the recent figures (since 2002) are for winners and places in the 140s and 150s!!! so why not apply a higher TS?
#447
February 18th, 2009 23:35
Hi all, pretty new to the game so be gentle but i’d like to know what are TS figures?
#448
February 19th, 2009 05:19
Did someone mention my name, yes I was 7th. in the gold Cup and 23 days later I won the national – boy were my legs sore.
Right – someone wanted top speeds etc.
Last 18 GN winners.
Best ever T/S in a chase and best ever RPR before winning. Plus OR on the day.
T/S RPR OR
’08 – 150 155 139
130 150 138
138 146 138
126 156 144
136 154 138
111 148 138
143 153 136
155 152 140
159 164 138
142 153 142
151 157 147
148 157 149
167 170 152
165 163 155
156 160 153
145 158 153
147 160 148
128 156 ?(150)
#449
February 19th, 2009 07:32
Hi, first time poster on this site and i’ve found your blogs very interesting and appear to be matching my thoughts on the potential winner of the GN, i feel right now that it’s Rambling Minster’s year. However after just missing out on the quadfecta last year getting 1,3,4,5, i want another go at this year and am wondering who yu feel will fill the placings.
My shortlist is as follows and reasons i’m not sure about them;
Butler’s Cabin (poor form and french bred)
Black Apalachi (needs soft ground, distance a worry – but has won over the national fences)
Snowy Morning (poor form)
Comply Or Die (poor form, but think he will complete race as distance not a worry for him)
Himalayan Trail (very inexperienced but has won a 4m chase)
Southern Vic ( distance a worry and i think he’ll need the ground to be gd-firm)
State Of Play (not too sure of this one, won at aintree – think the distance for him is a question mark though)
War Of Attrition (class horse jumps well, who should complete course)
Cornish Sett (improver on last year, paul nicholls best horse currently and in decent form)
Garde Champetre (won around 4m mark, french bred though and hasnt had a run all year)
Kilbeggan Blade (in great form, with ood stamina, ? over his spring form)
Silver Birch (not sure on SB – has he any entries soon)
Knowhere (class horse distance a worry – plus fallen twice in GN already)
Fundamentalist (distance a worry, but is in better form than last year and won at Aintree earlier in the season)
From this my top 4 would be
1. Rambling Minster
2. Kilbeggan Blade
3. War of Attrition
4. Fundamentalist
#450
February 19th, 2009 08:50
Miinnehoma – those figures you’ve produced are fantastic!! And by the way thanks to you and you’re hamster eating owner for the win back in 1994. Only my 2nd ever win after Party Politics at that stage.
Montys Pass TS of 111 is really bugging me. I don’t think he should have won in 2003 and that’s proven by the fact that he was the lowest priced finisher that year (that’s got to be unusual). All 7 others under 16/1 either pu, ur or fell. The 111 stat stands as a fly in the ointment. One other thing about Monty’s – his whole career was spent racing in IRL except for 4 trips to Aintree & 2 to Cheltenham. That kind of under the radar activity doesn’t seem to miss Phil Smith’s attention any more.
So, here’s what I think about TS which is clearly very important in the GN. Use a minimum TS of 128 (unless the horses name begins with an M – bet you were slow Miinnehoma) nothing more, nothing less.
#451
February 19th, 2009 09:10
Sorry, looks like that should be minimum best TS of 126 or else we would have missed Hedgie.
#452
February 19th, 2009 09:53
I don’t trust topspeed figures because of their volatility and I think Miinnehoma’s figures bear this out (albeit small sample):
Topspeed range: 111 to 167 (average 144, standard dev c.14)
RPR range: 146 to 170 (average 156, standard dev c.6))
Re: Monty’s Pass – forget topspeed and the only doubtful things about Monty’s Pass were that he had fallen once (not uncommon) and not won over further than 3 miles
However he duly bolted up and came 4th off 11’10 the next year
#453
February 19th, 2009 10:35
I’ve noticed that one or two people have mentioned Mon Mome and Chelsea Harbour and wanted to share something that might be useful: BE WARY OF BACKING HORSES THAT HAVE COMPLETED THE COURSE IN PREVIOUS NATIONALS. This is something that everyone should bear in mind.
After last year’s race I did some research into the National winners and horses that complete the race one year have a very poor record when trying to do better in subsequent years. Since Red Rum won his third National in 1977, I think only 3 horses that have completed the course have gone on to win in future years. Two of those were placed (Hallo Dandy 4th 1983, won in 1984, and Amberleigh House 3rd in 2003, won in 2004). The other horse was Little Polvier, who won at the 4th attempt with previous form reading 9, U, U. So only 3 horses to complete have gone on to win in the last 30 years and only 1 of those finished unplaced. How many must have tried? A good few I should reckon.
I would avoid any horse that finished the race in previous years. Those that finished placed obviously faired well over C&D but the handicapper usually does for them and those that completed the course out of the frame either don’t stay and/or aren’t good enough, and they won’t stay or be good enough in the future. It might be dangerous to apply this rule arbitrarily as each horse needs to be taken on it’s merits, but if you are considering backing a horse that has completed the course in previous years I would urge caution – if the horse has been placed, is it still ahead of the handicapper this time? If the horse was an also-ran – why was it an also-ran and why is it likely to fair better this time?
Fallers on the other hand should not be dismissed, as over the same period 6 horses (Silver Birch, Hedgehunter, Red Marauder, Royal Athlete, Little Polveir and West Tip) have come to grief before going on to win. Ben Nevis was also brought-down the year before he won.
#454
February 19th, 2009 10:58
I’m doing ratings for last 10 winners and get consistent results for 9 of the 10 – the exception being Red Marauder
Red Marauder won the race on heavy (only 4 finished) and for me does not fit the profile of the other 9 – so I am going to ignore his race
My final list of horses will be those that meet the standard of the 9 based on going of Good or Good to Soft – and if it comes up Heavy I will re-evaluate on the day
Aintree normally drains very well so unless there is a monsoon on race day – should be ok
If the ground is Good or better they will water it so that noone complains about the ground – the size of the prize is to big to run on Good to Firm (another reason why Hot Weld might not have conditions in his favour even if he makes a miraculous return to form)
Also perhaps a reason why many Irish horses, who from past form appear to have a preference for a bit of give, seem to manage 4m 4f on what is officially described as ‘Good’ ground
Incidentally, by my calculations, the only Horse that reaches the standard of those 9 is…Rambling Minster
But there’s a few weeks left for that to change…
P.S. Will also test on all runners over those 9 Nationals and see how many qualified each year (and where they finished)
#455
February 19th, 2009 12:34
Just done some research on price – will post later. In most years you would find the winner if you drew a line under anything up to 40/1 in the bookies list in the Racing post on weights day.
This year it means Rambling Minster upwards (!! – how that for a strange cooincidence. Rambo’s the one so far.
The following popler horses DO NOT fit this proviso:
Battlecry – 50/1 x 4
Cornish Set – 50/1 x 4
Endless Power – 50/1 x 4
Golden Flight – 50/1 x 2
L’Ami – 50/1 x 7
Silver Birch – 50/1 x 1
Patsy Hall – 66/1 x1
Darkness (oh no, my outsider against the field))- 66/1 x 2
Fleet Streee – 66/1 x 1
Snoopy Loopy – 66/1 x 3
Trabolgan – 66/1 x 8
Brooklyn Brownie – 100/1 x 2 (NO chance!)
Fundamentalist – 100/1 x 7 (No chance!)
How long before someone mentions Silver Birch (I dont have the RP for weights day 2007 – does anyone know what the highest price was on weights day?)puting Siver Birch aside its a fact that if you cut off at 40/1 on weights day in the vast majority of years you will find the winner in the shorter list of 40/1 down.
#456
February 19th, 2009 14:10
Good old Silver Birch eh lol
He was 100/1 on Weights day Systemsman although i agree it is a rare occurence of this happening so people who follow this trend (i personnally dont) would be safe 9 times out of 10 if they look at horses 40/1 and below on weights day.
(If i remember right about SilverBirch i think he was 50/1 with some of the bookies on weights day but i obviously looked for the highest price available, so you could maybe argue that if at least one bookie has a horse priced at 50/1 or below you should include it and disregard the rest)
#457
February 19th, 2009 14:16
Stayer;
I agree the stats are not good for horses who have finished unplaced at the national on their return the following year. Why is this? Well because the GN is a true test, so if you turn up and can only get round in 10th one year, you probably aren’t good enough to win. Also, just completing the course takes a heck of a lot out of a horse, so this may have a detrimental effect on reappearance.
HOWEVER, with CORNISH SETT i think there are circumstances that need to be considered. He has had a breathing operation since last year’s race, which PN has said has made all the difference. His run in the Welsh National clearly shows he has the class to run well at Aintree. I cant see him carrying any more than he did last year, and it may even be a few pounds less.
He goes there with a life chance, although I agree he has a lot to find on last year’s run.
#458
February 19th, 2009 14:18
live chance, not life chance…*rolls eyes
#459
February 19th, 2009 14:20
thanks for that post Miinehoma, now I see where systems got the 111 figure! Got to say I got my info from sporting life website and quickly looking thro I have completely different figures!? both for best ever TS in a chase and best RPR, eg.Montys Pass reads TS 145 RPR 162
apparently his best ever TS 145 was in the GN! thats the bit I find hard to believe.
Last year I have COD TS 157 RPR 158
whats going on here? have things gone metric!!!
#460
February 19th, 2009 15:36
NEW STAT ALERT (as if we needed any more!)
Over the last 15 Renewals all winners had a run after the weights were announced (I’m assuming weights were always announced in early Feb – not sure if this is true).
2 only had post weight preps over hurdles
2 performed badly over fences
but 11/15 finished in the top 5 of a chase after weights announcement. (3 1st, 4 2nd, 0 3rd, 2 4th, 2 5th).
Not the most reliable trend we’ve come across but 73% clearly worth considering.
This is 100% in the last 6 years, where the horse has run over fences.
This could be a possible differentiator once people have compiled their shortlists – rule out any that have run over fences after 10 Feb but finished outside top 5. (Also rule out any not running in say the last 60 days before GN).
#461
February 19th, 2009 16:15
Post below taken from the Racing post web site…
JOHN SMITH’S GRAND NATIONAL winner Comply Or Die and Butler’s Cabin, the favourite to steal his crown at Aintree in April, are among the high-profile entries for the Cheltenham Festival handicaps.
Comply Or Die figures in a 93-strong entry for the William Hill Trophy, while Butler’s Cabin has been given the Pertemps Final, Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup and Glenfarclas Cross-Country Chase as his three options.
#462
February 19th, 2009 16:17
What do people make of Conna Castle? He only missed out on my shortlist due to his OR being 1lb lower than my cutt-off, but he’s got some classy form over hurdles and fences including a GD 1 win only 13 months ago. Stamina would be a worry though, but he’s running in the Racing Post Chase on Saturday and he should improve on the better ground. Anyone taken the 66s?
#463
February 19th, 2009 17:15
Conna Castle:
No win at 24f+ (only raced over 24f once, 7/18 in Theystes)
Best TS 122
Never run at any distance over 24f, and only once at that distance.
Not one for me based on that…
#464
February 19th, 2009 18:45
So, it looks as though Himlayan Trail is having his final prep in a hurdle and Garde Champetre is having his in Cross Country at Cheltenham. If this is the case HT will not have had a top 3 chase place this season and GC will not have finished in the top 3 of a C1 chase (though has over hurdles?). Both trends are very strong, 20/20 at least, so is it the end of the road for these two?
Parsons Legacy hasn’t been entered for any Cheltenham handicaps, any news anybody?
#465
February 19th, 2009 18:54
Anyone know if/when Reveillez/Fundamentalist planning to run soon?
#466
February 19th, 2009 19:15
Both Reveillez and Fundamentalist entered at Cheltenham I think
#467
February 19th, 2009 19:15
CRISP 73 -
Philip hobbs said in his straight from the stable interveiw in racing post weekender that Parson’s legacy will go straight to Aintree as he is best fresh
#468
February 19th, 2009 19:16
Hi all.
I’m a keen follower of the stats myself and only found this page last year. I picked up on COD here but prior to that I think I’ve had 5/7 winners using my own system.
This year, I’ve got to say that Rambling Minster looks a blinding bet at 20-1. I watched his Haydock run and for a horse that allegedly doesn’t like it soft, it won going away easily. The weight is a belter and I intend to lump on with a few saver bets to be decided nearer the time.
#469
February 19th, 2009 19:24
Cheers Harry. That’s Parsons Legacy off the list as well then! It’s taking shape now!
#470
February 19th, 2009 20:22
fundamentalist down to run in william hill trophy on 10th march
#471
February 19th, 2009 20:36
Correction, top 3 in a chase in winning season is 19/20. Papillon finished 3rd over hurdles – so HT needs a top 3 at the weekend.
#472
February 19th, 2009 20:41
Does anybody know if there are there any trends that would exist if you take away the 2001 race that Red Marauder won?
Thanks
Ells
1
#473
February 19th, 2009 21:06
Thanks guys for info.
Crisp Re Parsons – off what list? The list of who’s going to Chelt?
#474
February 19th, 2009 21:36
Red Marauder fell last time out before the National but all others recently have been in top 7 last time out – no pulled up, fell etc
With exception of Red Marauder and Party Politics all winners since 1990 have had a best RPR prior to their National win at least 6lb (in many cases > 10 lb) higher than Grand National rating (which is not necessarily the same as OR – this year Exotic Dancer 11’10 is rated 166 for GN and State of Play 10’8 is rated 150 etc – so anything on 10’0 or below is rated 142)
This year some of the Irish runners have a Grand National rating in excess of their OR:
Hear The Echo – OR = 145, GN = 153
Preists Leap – OR = 146, GN = 153
Black Apalachi – OR = 146, GN = 153
But:
War of Attrition – OR = 163, GN = 157
#475
February 19th, 2009 22:58
Just ran a few figures through the Grand National Runners Analysis Tool on this site and it came out with my own short list ( so it must be about right I think) using trends etc. Still need to double check against a few more criteria but here it is:
In no order other than RM and Bc being at the top:
40/1 and under on weights day:
Rambling Minster – backed
Butlers Cabin – backed
Souhern Vic – backed
State of Play – not backed yet (waiting to see if he get in under 11.00)- will back if 33/1 starts to go.
Kilbeggan Blade – backed
Mon Mome – not backed
50/1 and over on weights day
Cornish Set – not backed
Fundamenatalist – not backed – too high in price
Alwways Waining – not backed – too high in price
Not selected by the Grand National Runners Analysis Tool that I have backed early:
Hear The Echo – now too much weight
Back Apalachi – now too much weight
Himalayan Trail – two “fail to finish” this season!
Garde Champetre – no Class 1 Chase win or 1/2/3rd
So my short list of four against the field so far has to be:
Rambling Minster – backed
Butlers Cabin – backed
Southern Vic – backed
Kilbeggan Blade – backed. No C1 chase but won HC 30fx2, won HC 29f x2)
State Of Play – still waiting, a bit high in the weights? (but will take 33/1 if its starts to go).
What do you think?
#476
February 19th, 2009 23:05
Rambling Minster and Butler’s Cabin look good at this stage.
Bit wary of Kilbeggan Blade’s form in the spring. Seems to go bye-bye.
Southern Vic fails on some of the trends does he not?
#477
February 19th, 2009 23:14
If SOP goes fresh and straight to the GN (as they seem to be veering towards) he is an OUTSTANDING hope.
The trainer says they’ve found the key – to run him fresh. That would figure with winning 2nd last time out and then being indifferent only 7 weeks later. His form is littered with great results when rested. Even if weights go up 5lbs he’d be same as Hedgy.
I for one think this year we are REALLY missing class horses who also fit stats and this Hennessy winner ticks many boxes. To me he is MUCH better value than BC and almost resmebles BC’s hit and miss form before then putting in his good run before falling last year.
SOP is probably potentially sitting 2nd on my list, behind Rambo at the mo.
#478
February 19th, 2009 23:52
Gammers Says:
February 19th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
NEW STAT ALERT (as if we needed any more!)
Over the last 15 Renewals all winners had a run after the weights were announced (I’m assuming weights were always announced in early Feb – not sure if this is true).
2 only had post weight preps over hurdles
2 performed badly over fences
but 11/15 finished in the top 5 of a chase after weights announcement. (3 1st, 4 2nd, 0 3rd, 2 4th, 2 5th).
Not the most reliable trend we’ve come across but 73% clearly worth considering.
This is 100% in the last 6 years, where the horse has run over fences.
This could be a possible differentiator once people have compiled their shortlists – rule out any that have run over fences after 10 Feb but finished outside top 5. (Also rule out any not running in say the last 60 days before GN).
You do realise Monty’s Pass finished dead last 4 out of a field of 4 in his prep run? Would you rate that better than 6 out of say 20 in a bigger trial?
#479
February 19th, 2009 23:58
In agreement with Showlad – Rambo looks best and State of Play when fresh could go really well
My two best hopes at the moment
But that’s as it stands…
This time last year Comply Or Die had not run in the Eider and with hindsight that run showed he could win the National
So some other horse might step up to the plate
My instinct says it won’t be Kilbeggan Blade – I don’t believe that he travels well enough and hasn’t placed in a key race – but some of his stats look quite good – dilemma but haven’t ruled him out yet – a lot depends on next run
#480
February 20th, 2009 00:16
Stats are really important and they have led me to my only bet so far – RAMBLING MINSTER. He looks outstanding.
In fact it’s difficult to make a case against him without sounding petty. Perhaps it would have been reassuring to see a bit of form in a Welsh National or Hennessy? Maybe a spin over the Aintree fences in the Becher Chase? Apart from that he’s surely an indentikit Grand National winner.
He first caught my eye when he finished behind COD and Cloudy Lane at Haydock last year and I was delighted when he exploded into top form this season. Why wasn’t he entered last year? Or was he taken out very early doors?
His display at Haydock last Saturday (I watched it again last night) was mighty impressive, as good a National trial as you can get. He jumped flawlessly and, I thought, looked fresh at the finish taking into account the distance and conditions.
I was amazed to see him still trading at 25s afterwards. Major slip-up by the bookies. I think he may go off favourite for the GN and he certainly deserves to be a lot shorter than he is.
His stats profile is unrivalled. However, I do feel we are due a quirky winner, a horse defying some of the key stats.
There are lots of recent winners that fit the ‘quirky’ or ‘rogue winner’ mould, such as second season chasers Bindaree (2002), Numbersixvalverde (2006), old-timers like Amberleigh House (2004) and Monty’s Pass (2003) who both had around 40 chase runs under their belts before winning the GN, mudlark Red Marauder (2001), even Silver Birch (2007) whose recent form simply wasn’t good enough to win a National but whose longer term profile was excellent.
Going back further you’d have been hard pressed to tip veteran Royal Athlete (1995).
That’s why I’m keeping an open mind about KING JOHNS CASTLE (he wouldn’t have to improve that much from last year to get close and how many Irish ‘hurdlers’ have we watched scoot to success at Aintree in the last ten years?), MIKO DE BEAUCHENE and possibly STATE OF PLAY.
Even CLOUDY LANE cannot be confidently dismissed, in my opinion. OK he’s carrying a lot of weight (although only a few more pounds than in 2008) and he disappointed last year, but Donald McCain will be happy to be out of the limelight this year. The horse was too young last year anyway (he’d only turned eight a few weeks earlier). One year on, he will be stronger and have more stamina.
This horse could contest the next four Grand Nationals and become a Suny Bay, Party Poltics, Corbiere, Hedgehunter, etc. Look how much Hedgehunter improved between his tired fall at the final fence (2004) as an eight-year-old and returning victorious 12 months later.
There are a few more contenders which I think will be in the mix and could take the race if they’ve got the one quality every Grand National since Lottery has had….a slice of good fortune.
But, for me, it should be the year ‘Rambo romps to Grand National victory.’
And, after talking myself out of COD last year in favour of dodgy jumper D’Argent, p’raps I’m due a slice of fortune too??
#481
February 20th, 2009 10:15
War of Attrition is the one against the field that is bugging me
A gold cup winner carrying 11st? I dont know, maybe we would all have egg on our face if he bolted up at Aintree
At the my shortlist:
RAMBLING MINSTER
HIMALYAN TRAIL
WAR OF ATTRITION
STATE OF PLAY
(HOT WELD if he puts in a good run at Cheltenham)
#482
February 20th, 2009 10:46
I too watched the Haydock race again yesterday and as I said further up, Rambling Minster won with something in hand and could have found more if required.
There has been a bit of money for Southern Vic over the last couple of days. A few bookies clipped him in from 33s in to 25s yesterday and Betfred have just made him 20s.
#483
February 20th, 2009 10:51
Which website did you see Rambling Minster on, wouldnt mind a look myself, didn’t see his race at weekend – looked on both ATR and RP
#484
February 20th, 2009 10:55
Brody – Monty’s Pass is not one of the 11 that I was referring to; his prep runs were over hurdles.
Crisp – are you ruling Parsons out based on the ‘days since last run’ stat? I think this could be dangerous, as already stated in the case of SOP some horses run better fresh so it is a positive that he is not having a prep. This could also be the case for Parsons – 4/6 of his career wins came after a break of 60 days or more, the other wins after shorter breaks being back in 2004 and earlier.
Personally after his withdrawal last year I would take the news that he is ‘going straight to Aintree’ as a positive sign that he will run this year.
#485
February 20th, 2009 11:02
Topcat,
I’ve got it recorded at home but Haydock is a RUK channel so you should be able to see it from the RP site.
Any more views on Conna Castle?
#486
February 20th, 2009 11:07
why is it that as soon as systems man mentions ….. that french bred …. anywhere on this blog the price drops ? hahaha the thing that impressed with rambo at haydock wasnt the win but that he took up the lead with something like a mile and a half left to run …. and stayed on to win imo he didnt tire and although im not sure the ground was quite the marsh it was made out to be no doubt after the weather that week it would have been testing.
#487
February 20th, 2009 11:39
Cheers stayer found it on RP
pesonally i don’t think Conna castle will last the distance, he’s never run over 3 miles and is in very poor form this season, can’t see him making the frame
#488
February 20th, 2009 12:22
I didn’t think his run under top weight in the Thyestes was bad at all actually (7/18 beaten 20l). On ground he doesn’t like he was conceding weight to mud-lovers like Priests Leap and Chelsea Harbour that day, but is set to meet those two in the National with a staggering pull in the weights of 19lbs and 21lbs respectively. People talk about the Irish horses being badly handicapped and whilst this is seems true of those towards the top of the handicap, Conna Castle and Southern Vic seem well treated to me.
#489
February 20th, 2009 12:29
My ratings so far – at least 31 is normally required to win the National and some will get more points for running well inside the 50 day mark etc, posting a good RPR etc (so State of Play will only get 28 but I will make allowances for him because of trainer comments and goes well fresh);
34 Rambling Minster
29 Ballyfitz
28 Notre Pere
28 State Of Play
27 Cornish Sett
26 Black Apalachi
26 Miko De Beauchene
26 Kilbeggan Blade
26 Himalayan Trail
25 War Of Attrition
25 Chelsea Harbour
25 One Cool Cookie
25 Mon Mome
25 Garde Champetre
25 Brooklyn Brownie
Not sure what Ballyfitz is doing up there but I doubt he’ll run
One Cool Cookie looks dodgy too
Rest seem to have been touted at some point
Maybe there’s something there after all
#490
February 20th, 2009 12:55
Its quite amazing when you look back over the last 150 or so posts how most are beginning to point towards Rambling Minster.
I know it is early days but i think he is an outstanding bet at the 20/1 currently on offer.
I keep on looking for an alternative but to be honest i am struggling. A few weeks back i really thought that this was going to be a hard National to crack this year but as the days are going by for me it seems one of the easiest….all roads lead back to Rambo.
……well thus far
#491
February 20th, 2009 13:00
I agree Puzzled 20s still seems amazing value and was think of stocking up to lay on that later…
Crisp can u clarify your Parson’s ‘strike off list quote’ that one’s got us all puzzled n confused lol
#492
February 20th, 2009 13:13
Just had a few more quid on Rambo this afternoon. Hills and Laddies are still offering 20′s. Betfred have got him in at 14′s.
I can’t see the 20-1 lasting much longer especially once it gets near Cheltenham and we have the pull outs from the top of the field.
Anyone know if Rambo is due a prep race before the big day?
#493
February 20th, 2009 13:18
Phil his team think it’s likely straight to Aintree now…
#494
February 20th, 2009 13:20
Plan is for Rambo to go straight to Aintree and you’re quite right, the 20s is unlikely to last much longer. Get as much as you can. Can’t see any great performances from a leading fancy before Cheltenham (except perhaps the big fella and we all know he won’t win).
#495
February 20th, 2009 14:47
Agree with you Puzzled and Showlad. 20′s remains and outstanding price, as I think Rambling Minster only has to run well and stay on his feet to get at least a place. I was tempted back into Hills at lunchtime for another £25 ew on him – and I seem to be doing that (not always the same stake) with increasing frequency! It is hard not to be tempted when he is clearly up there, as identified by key trends and figures we have all worked on and contributed to. And I think there is no one will doubt that he will be CONSIDERABLY shorter come the day, possible even a single priced favourite. I just hope he stays sound and makes it to post.
#496
February 20th, 2009 14:48
Thanks for the info on Parsons Legacy. On the basis of his poor last showing, and the fact if he does go straight to Aintree he will not have run for over 3 months, I will be laying him and putting the money earned on Rambling Minster….again!
#497
February 20th, 2009 15:03
Rambo now 14-1 with paddy power
#498
February 20th, 2009 15:07
Just got 21.00 on Betfair though, so make sure you shop around.
As people are saying, I am extremely surprised he is still this price.
Roll on April 4th!
#499
February 20th, 2009 15:47
Daniel,
The Betfair price will generally hold as it’s win only. The bookies will be cutting the odds to protect against the EW hits.
#500
February 20th, 2009 16:04
Just popped myself down to the Bank of Rambo (aka the Magic Sign)
They are offering, and get this, a credit-crunch munching 2000% tax free interest to hold your money for 43 days
Admittedly times are tough and they’ve had to cut interest rates by 500% in the last 6 days
Enjoy!
#501
February 20th, 2009 17:32
I’m glad I topped up my bet on Southern Vic earlier. All the 33s have gone now. He’s been very popular over the last few days. Has Ted Walsh said anything on RTE or in the Irish Press at all? I’m just wondering where the money has come from.
#502
February 20th, 2009 17:43
Stayer – he’s running in Bobbyjo chase tomorrow – a good performance there and he’s bang in the picture – a poor run and I’m putting a line through him
#503
February 20th, 2009 17:48
“Stayer – he’s running in Bobbyjo chase tomorrow – a good performance there and he’s bang in the picture – a poor run and I’m putting a line through him”
Yes and i’m hopeful of a big run. I’m just wondering why there seems to have been money for him over the last few days. Perhaps the bookies are expecting him to run well tomorrow and are shortening in advance or Ted Walsh has said something in the press.
#504
February 20th, 2009 17:53
Good field for Fairyhouse, 3.15 tomorrow:
One Cool Cookie
Snowy Morning
Black Apalachi
Forget The Past
Southern Vic
4 possible GN contenders
Plus a few GN possibles in Racing Post Chase @ Kempton, 3.10:
Nozic
Stan
Ollie Magern
Big Fella Thanks
Nacarat
Ungaro
Fleet Street
Battlecry
Silverburn
Possol
Billyvoddan
Oedipe
Lacdoudal
Endless Power
Conna Castle
Laskari
Piraya
New Little Bric
Fier Normand
Market could move again on Saturday afternoon…
#505
February 20th, 2009 18:00
I’m on Big Fella big for Saturday, winnings (fingers crossed) will probably go striaght back on Rambling for the national.
Also hopeful of a good run from Southern Vic and Him Trail at the weekend as I’m on those at nice prices.
#506
February 20th, 2009 18:10
From memory most of the Irish challengers seem to have too much weight to carry (Notre Pere etc) or are badly in (HTE, BA etc) or in poor form (Snowy) or coming back from injury (KJC) or in Gold Cup (WOA)
Maybe Southern Vic is the one the Irish have latched onto
He’s more class than Rambling Minster but he’s got Strong Gale influence in breeding and that’s a negative for Aintree
#507
February 20th, 2009 18:21
Southern Vic would need to win on sat and look like he would stay further for me to be interested.
He is 20/1 just for the Bobbyjo, so I have no interest at backing at 33/1 for the National….
Mind you, I said that about Rambling Minster this time last week!! Again though, id rather have twice the stake at half the odds, than a specualtive bet now.
#508
February 20th, 2009 18:35
The best ante post bet on an Irish horse I can see at this moment is Brooklyn Brownie. If it gets a prep run the only stat it fails on that I can see would be a 17k chase win, unless it wins one of course!
I meant I will strike Parsons Legacy of my list of horses that can win this National if it doesn’t run a prep. It may still be some e/w value though.
#509
February 20th, 2009 18:37
If weights were only to rise say, 2lbs, anybody interested in Ollie Magern?
#510
February 20th, 2009 19:06
For me Ollie Magern is way below his best at present
#511
February 20th, 2009 19:15
“Southern Vic would need to win on sat and look like he would stay further for me to be interested.
He is 20/1 just for the Bobbyjo, so I have no interest at backing at 33/1 for the National….”
Daniel,
I don’t think he has to win tomorrow but a bold show would give me encouragement. Where did you get him being 20/1 for the Bobbyjo from? I can’t find a market yet and the ATR betting forcast suggests he will be 5/1 3rd fav.
“If weights were only to rise say, 2lbs, anybody interested in Ollie Magern?”
Crisp,
No. Away from Wetherby he’s been in woeful form lately. He’s 100/1 for tomorrow and there are 20 runners and not 40.
I’ve done something either inspired or more likely very stupid. I can’t seem to shake off Conna Castle and after reviewing his last run think he will go well tomorrow. Decided to have an e/w double on him for tomorrow (16s) and Aintree (66s). Huge payout for a tiny stake if he wins and not a bad return if he places in both. I’m not normally one for these kind of bets but it’s a total bet to nothing.
#512
February 20th, 2009 19:29
Advice to all.
20/1 Coral/Lad on Rambling Minster still available – get on now while you can – me I’am going to have some more of that tomorrow – still good value.
Southern Vic – 33/1 gone! 25/1 WH/Tote still available – if you like it take this price whle it lasts (mines all on already)
Butlers Cabin now a silly price of 11/1 – 14/1 – but I did say it would happen (and still in with a good chance).
Come on Rambo! (remember he fits the pre Christmas winners trends profile [as does BC and SV]!!)
#513
February 20th, 2009 20:27
Doubled up on Ramb with my free bets – equivalent with BET365 of getting him at 36-1 at present – had a bit of 40′s and magic sign’s 20′s on top – lets clear them out! I see a few are running scared with 14s already.
#514
February 20th, 2009 20:58
PP have chalked up southern vic at 11-4 for tomorrows bobbyjo . will be v interesting to see how this horse runs tomoro . theres been an asolute roll on this horse today but as someone already stated maybe people getting on in case its price collapses after tomorrow . p carberry booked –
one gets the impression that this horse hasnt played its full hand yet . lets c what tomorrow brings…!
#515
February 20th, 2009 21:20
Southern Vic fails on the key stat of not having had a top 5 place in the Hennessy, top 3 in Irish, Scots or Welsh National, top 2 over National fences or 3+ chase wins at 3m+ with one being at 3m 4f+. Every winner from Mr Frisk until now has had this.
#516
February 20th, 2009 21:26
When I was looking through Southern Vic’s form last week I noticed this, which was about his first run (and win) outside of novice company in October 2006:
“The Troytown at Navan or possibly the Hennessy at Newbury were both mentioned by Ted Walsh, who described him as “a good old staying horse who might arrive in Aintree some day.”"
An off the cuff comment or has Ted Walsh long thought that this horse would shape into a National candidate? He’s trained one so he should know. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he’s run in a couple of hurdle races this season, taken on Mansony over 2m1f and is now running in a 3m chase after the National weights have come out. I think this has been the plan for some time.
#517
February 20th, 2009 21:37
pp have now cut southern vic to 16s…! somebody somewhere must be having a right old plunge on this…. i understand why the minster has been cut but that seemed to happen after he had won on the sat . southern vic is being slashed everywhere before hes even ran ..
#518
February 20th, 2009 21:38
“Southern Vic fails on the key stat of not having had a top 5 place in the Hennessy, top 3 in Irish, Scots or Welsh National, top 2 over National fences or 3+ chase wins at 3m+ with one being at 3m 4f+. Every winner from Mr Frisk until now has had this.”
I mentioned on the Hot Weld thread that I feel that some of the “stats” people follow are spurious. I think this is one. The Grand National is a staying race so it’s going to be the case that many horses that run in the race have previously run in the other top staying chases that are out there, and for a horse to be good enough to win a National you would think that it must have run pretty well in those races and showed that they stayed etc. However, to discount a horse that hasn’t seems very dangerous. It’s not like Southern Vic has run in those races and keeps failing e.g. like Character Building, whose performances in staying chases suggest that he isn’t good enough. Southern Vic doesn’t have much experience in staying chases but a bold run tomorrow in a Grade 2 will be good enough for me.
#519
February 20th, 2009 21:54
Thanks for responding The Stayer.
Southern Vic does meet every other trend I use bar that one and to be fair, if he does win tomorrow he will have 3 chases wins over 3m. So he would only just be out of the trends by a slight margain.
He does look a good bet from that perspective.
#520
February 20th, 2009 22:05
As we need to approach the race from as many angles as possible, I’ve had a look at the form for each horse in terms of handicap chases they’ve run over 3m+. I’ve looked at the comments to see whether they’ve kept on/stayed on etc. If they’ve fallen, that race may not have been included if they’ve been in contention at the time. I’ve ruled out horses who’ve run less than 2 of this race type, carry over 11’1, who have not won this season, who have completed the National but finished unplaced, or who are not aged 8-12. The top percentages are:
Rambling Minster 8/12 75%
Priest’s Leap 2/3 67%
Garde Champetre 2/3 67%
My Will 4/7 57%
Simon 6/12 50%
Miko de Beauchamp 2/4 50%
State of Play 2/4 50%
Parsons Legacy 6/13 46%
Always Waining 4/9 44%
Monkerhostin 3/7 43%
Kilbeggan Blade 5/12 42%
Hot Weld 3/8 38%
Comply or Die 2/6 33%
Himalayan Trail 2/6 33%
Knowhere 1/3 33%
Hear the Echo 1/3 33%
Always Waining, Hot Weld, Comply or Die discounted due to current poor form.
Monkerhostin discounted due to awful attitude around National fences
Priests Leap, Hear the Echo discounted as OR is over 15 pounds higher than last win
Himalayan Trail discounted as less than 10 chases
Garde Champetre discounted as is X-Country specialist
Kilbeggan Blade discounted as he has pulled up in each of the three 3m+ chases he has tried at Class 1 level
This leaves the following:
Rambling Minster
My Will
Simon
Miko de Beauchamp
State of Play
Parsons Legacy
Knowhere
I’m not a big fan of the french bred stat but there are a couple in there. I’m concerned about Miko’s recent habit of UR and general form as well as badly handicapped. I was all for Parsons last year but seems a bit fragile and pulled up in last race.
So, that leaves:
Rambling Minster
My Will
Simon
State of Play
Knowhere
I have no idea what to make of State of Play. I’ve not backed it but it is niggling away at me
SImon isn’t in great form, has poor TS figures this year and hasn’t raced since Dec. However, it’s on the mark of 2 years ago and may have a few quid if it runs again, hoping it stays on its feet this year
My Will interests me. I know it has only had one run recently but may run again at Cheltenham. Obviously that is another stat against it but, in this classy horse’s case, it will need it. French Bred is against it and so is the price, but it is a danger
Knowhere interests me for some reason I can’t explain. Poor last run, may run at Cheltenham and has poor record over National fences and is dodgy jumper generally. Was going very well last year before it fell though and think it is very well handicapped. Can’t shake it off!
This leaves RAMBLING MINSTER. Enough said!!
#521
February 20th, 2009 22:08
Sorry, couple of rushed typos. I’ve meant to say that I’ve excluded horses that have run in less than 3 of this race type, and excluded those who have not RUN this season
#522
February 20th, 2009 22:15
Speedy – id agree with you on knowhere – there something about this horse that i keep coming back to – hes finished 5th in a henessy and was still going well when tipping up carring 11-11 last year – guess its a big if – but if the weights dont go up he gets in with less than eleven stone this time.. by no means in my top list of 5 but circling on the perimeter and trading at a nice price on betfair…if there going to be a shock this year it could be him and hed still qualify on one of the key stats trends…
top 5 place in the Hennessy, top 3 in Irish, Scots or Welsh National, top 2 over National fences or 3+ chase wins at 3m+ with one being at 3m 4f+.
#523
February 20th, 2009 22:18
I thought he was a decent bet at 33s but i’m suprised at the amount of support there has been for him over the last few days. As Silver Birch says, he’s as low as 16s now and he hasn’t done anything on the course to justify that kind of movement.
Whilst he doesn’t have much big 3m+ chase experience I think he will stay. He was second in a 3m hurdle as a 5yo and won two novice chases at 3m as a 6yo. One was a GD 1 and the other was a GD 2 where he gave weight and a beating to Church Island and that horse is a dour stayer.
#524
February 20th, 2009 23:07
Stayer- interesting use of the English Language, spurious, which is an adjective and means ‘not genuine or real’
I researched the winners and attempted to cover their previous achievements with a ‘profile’. It may or may not produce this years winner and if trainers no longer use these chases then the profile doesn’t mean anything but
72) Well To Do – 3x24f wins including 1x28f
74) Red Rum – 2nd Hennessey/3x24f inc 1x28f
75) L’Escargot – 2nd in race over GN fences
76) Rag Trade – won Welsh Nat/3x24f inc 1x28f
77) Red Rum – won Scots Nat/2nd Hennessey/3x24f inc 1x28f
79) Rubstic – 2nd Scots Nat/3x24f inc 1x28f
80) Ben Nevis -3x24f inc 1x28f
81) Aldaniti – 3rd Hennessey/2nd Scots Nat
82) Grittar – 1st in race over GN fences
83) Corbiere – won Welsh Nat/3x24f inc 1x28f / (poss 5th Hennessey)
84) Hallo Dandy – 3x24f inc 1x28f
85) Last Suspect – 3rd Irish Nat/3x24f inc 1x28f
86) West Tip – 3x24f inc 1x28f
87) Maori Venture – 3rd Hennessey
88) Rhyme N Reason – won Irish Nat / 2nd Welsh Nat /5th Hennessey(’85 may have done better in other years?)/3x24f inc 1x28f
89) Little Polveir – won Scots Nat/3x24f inc 1x28f …..
it looks quite real to me, you can check the rest on racing post, I can’t be bothered to type any more.
#525
February 20th, 2009 23:43
Hi all. Almost finished compiling my short list, will post in an hour or so. I wouldn’t worry Crisp, I think its a great stat and I have employed it myself. All I will say, is if they have ran a close 4th in 1 of the Nationals, have won a similar length race like Racing Post Chase or Midlands National, or have 24f, 25f, 25f wins like Exotic Dancer for example then I’ve let them off if they appeal to me on the other trends. But I agree that its a solid stat and one that should be considered and applied even if not employed stringently.
Ells
1
#526
February 20th, 2009 23:50
speedyseagull I think you need to run your figures after Cheltenham.
There will be one or two surprises yet at Class 1 level and you will not see the near best of BC until his last prep race (his very best will be saved for the GN).
#527
February 20th, 2009 23:57
If Southern Vic comes 1st, 2nd or 3rd tomorrow as i think he will he has to be on any short list.
He fits most trends and has the speed and class.
Silver Birch your trend would then read (if SV won the GN):
“top 5 place in the Hennessy, top 3 in Irish, Scots or Welsh National, top 2 over National fences or 3+ chase wins at 3m+ with one being at 3m 4f+ or won a Class One Chase (G1/G2)over 25f or more in the race year entered for GN”.
#528
February 21st, 2009 01:25
Crikey Systems I hope SV can come in the Top 3 – there are only bloody 5 in the race lol!
Re Stayer and his arrogant post re Crips’s stat: (quote) I mentioned on the Hot Weld thread that I feel that some of the “stats” people follow are spurious. I think this is one. (end of quote)
Well I didn’t find it ‘spurios’ Crisp found it very useful.
Stayer – on this blog you issue your posts as if they are some Decree from the ‘Oracle’ lol – you are no better or worse than any of the other contributors here and I suggest you stop being so arsey and get off your high horse.
#529
February 21st, 2009 01:51
Hi
Hoping people could help with a couple of questions about Brooklyn Brownie. I think he looks a nice type especially at the odds but difficult to find out anything on his trainers/owners plans for remainder of season. I need to know:
1. Is he having a prep run as he hasn’t run since Nov.
2. Anybody know if he’s likely to line up for the GN.
3. I’ve got his Breeding down as Presenting – In The Brownies (IRE) (Lafontaine (USA). Anybody know anything about either of these stamina?
Would be much appreciated anybody who can help me find answers to those questions. Like I say like him although slight concerns over whether he has is classy enough to win the race.
Thanks
Ells
1
#530
February 21st, 2009 02:38
Should Southern Vic come first or a decent second tomorrow there will be a plunge on him winning the National but no Strong Gale progeny or relative has been placed in the National ever (or so I have been informed)
For those who think we are being arrogant about Rambo – we are saying that odds of 4% or 5% chance of him winning in the bookies is too low – we might lose but the odds are wrong – very wrong
#531
February 21st, 2009 02:41
…or maybe no Strong Gale has won
#532
February 21st, 2009 03:59
Finally finished my analysis, although a little worried that I’m not majorly confident on any of them, and it also seems that many are heading to Cheltenham before Aintree too.
Anyway, I will start with the last 15 I was left with – the 15 I thought were best suited.
Exotic Dancer – Unlikely to run but couldn’t rule out for sure if he did run as better than anything that’s raced in recent times and not too far away from Denman on OR – who everyone thought could win under top weight. (Not Backed)
Notre Pere – Great horse in form of his life. Previous run behind Neptunes Collonges was arguably more impressive than his Welsh National win and actually appears to be well in now at the weights based on that performance. However tiring season, seems to need soft/heavy ground and may struggle especially if landed with top weight come race day. (Not Backed)
Air Force One – Trainer has said GN is unlikely (Not Backed)
Chelsea Harbour – If comes soft/heavy then has a chance. (Not Backed)
Miko de Beauchene – GC appears at this moment in time to be the agenda. However in my opinion last run was mightily impressive under top weight when 4l behind Rambling Mnster – thought it was going to win entering straight – was cruising. Two runs previous are a little unfair as PU in Welsh National due to awful hampering when travelling well. And UR due to unfortunate stumble. (Plan to back after GC or if owners/trainers change their mind about priorities).
State of Play – Trainer is confident but in two minds with this one as likes to run fresh, but no horse has gone so long without running before winning the National in a long time. (Placed small win bet)
Silver Birch – Backed in 2007 – was my highest rated horse of the bunch (just ahead of Mckelvey 1st and 2nd
, took 65s 2 months before National. Haven’t seen P2P he ran in yet but sounded like he ran fine. (Already £150 positive on this horse as backed before race and layed out since. If he runs well in next P2P then will back again. Has nice weight and in much better position than most previous winners)
Parsons Legacy – Similar to State of Play. Really liked last year and had decent money on when it was withdrawn
. (Nice E/W prospect but won’t back until more solid gossip about this horse’s plans.
L’ami – Wish this horse wasn’t being aimed at Cheltenham primarily. Wasn’t a fan of this horse back in 07 and was actually surprised it made it round in 10th. Under different trainer now and seems to be a rejuvinated horse. I myself am a big fan of the cross country chases as National Preps, I think they take significant stamina and take it out of a lot of horses. Therefore I really like his preperation this year. Although not against opposition of old, seems to be enjoying himself and looks as good if not better than he did then. Seems to be in everyones shortlist based on stats, but dismissed due to previous Aintree form. However, even if weights rise by 5lb as expected he would be a stone better off than 07, under new trainer, better prep, no hectic/tiring season, 2 years older (10 – perfect age) and in better form. Also current favourite for x-country chase at Cheltenham, if he wins that, odds will collapse. Only negative as mentioned is National is an after thought
.(Backed – will have more on once I know if he is likely to run or not)
Cornish Sett – Worried about last run but has stamina and good chance. No worse off than in Welsh National on what is likely to be much preferred ground. Had terrible breathing problems last year and still managed to make it round. (Backed – will place more if reason for his bad run last time surfaces, or has better run since)
Rambling Minster – Great form. Great weight. Great price! (Backed all of 25s I could get at Lads).
Garde Champetre – Although no C1 win – won x-country chase at Cheltenham worth 50k. Cheltenham usually reserved for best horses so going to allow this fault. Won at Aintree over hurdles. Great stamina. Oustanding form and not sure handicapper has quite got on top of this one yet. Not 100% sure if has class to win but great profile. Trainer seems to think he likes being fresh which wouldn’t be good if he’s running at Cheltenham, however I disagree with this as 3 of his wins have come within a month of previous run, and has struggled after lengthy breaks.(Backed)
Brooklyn Brownie – Not sure if has the class. But good stamina bloodline. Aintree fences Experience. (Not backed yet, still deciding, would like to know plans).
Character Building – Unlucky in last race – was going ok till mistake 5th out. Still good chance but unsure if good enough form. Is he on the top of his game at the moment? (Not Backed yet)
Niche Market – Not sure about class or if he will make it in the race. No top 5 hennessy etc but 4th in Cheltenham – 32f. Not good enough probably. (Not Backed).
Others:
Monkerhostin – Trainer said return visit is unlikely. (Not Backed)
Mon Mome – 10th last year and wasn’t good enough. Although I like just don’t see what will change this. (Not Backed)
Darkness – Really like. Fits in with last two winners of coming back from absence. Obviously fancy for National as already been entered in Scottish and Welsh Nationals before. If back to old form then well in. Unsure about stamina but nice outsider. Looking for next run. (Small bet now and much more if runs well next time out)
Southern Vic – I know this will upset a lot of people but hate this choice. Backed it two years ago on thinking it was a great National prospect. However not been impressed since. Not won since 06. Never seen on good ground. Just don’t fancy it now whatsoever. Even if he wins tomorrow I’ll still be skeptical. (Not Backed)
Always Waining – Backed Ante-Post last year. Concerned about 2 PU’s – can’t back until has a more recent run. Must do much better for me to regain confidence. (Not Backed)
Beat The Boys – Not sure if he’s classy enough and doubt he will make it in. (Not Backed).
Others that have potential but have had poor form of late – need to see much more from include:
Comply or Die – Get the feeling blinkers might have been intentionally left off so he runs badly and in turn is given a little bit of slack by handicapper. Either way he is better off than I thought he would be and I’m sure will show much improvement once blinkers go on.
My Will
Butler’s Cabin
Simon
Hot Weld
Himalayan Trail
Mattock Ranger
D’Argent
Patsy Hall
Bit worrying that 3 of my main fancies are all French Bred, but its about time one won. I know its a very strong stat but I don’t believe in this French aren’t bred for stamina anymore. The likes of Garde has proven he can go significant distances.
Sorry to take up so much room everyone. Feel free to scroll past lol.
Keep up the good work!
Ells
1
#533
February 21st, 2009 04:41
Just like to say that i love the page, think we need one for Cheltenham festival though
#534
February 21st, 2009 10:26
Fleet Street is horse that hasn’t been mentioned very much, i think he covers most trends, especially if he wins today, put £1ew on a double for kempton today and the national potential return £717
#535
February 21st, 2009 10:36
Great post Lough Derg and a massive fan of your namesake – one of my fav horses in training..
Heres my ramblings for what theyre worth
TOP 5 CHOICES
Southern Vic – defintely there is an element of intuitiveness on this one . he doesnt fit the crisp stats but he passes the stats on many other peoples key trends . ill be honest and say the main reason for backing him is his trainer who pulled off a master touch with papillon ..he knows the time of day and i believe this has been the plan all year long despite very low key approach . nicely weighted and coming back to form – today is the acid test -backed
State of Play the great enigma – nobody really foaming at the mouth on this one but everybody terrified of leaving a hennessy winner with 10-8 off their list = passes crisp trends but ive a little niggling doubt about the long lay off even though it should suit this horse – backed
Rambling Minster – the perfect trends horse and must be backed .crusied round haydock , travelled well jumped well , low weight , if you dont have a few bob on this one your either skint , crazy or extremely brave – backed
Garde Champetre – he reminds me so much of Silver Birch – i had backed silver Birch big time to win in his year of triumph but believed in all reality he was probably playing for a place – the rest is history.. ! i get the same vibe about this boy – admirably consistent and tough if it comes up softish then this boy will be bang on the premises of 10-0 – make no doubt about it – backed
Himalayan Trail – i would suggest people keep a close eye on this horse today . yes he has been far from perfect this season , but miracolously he is being fitted with a tongue tie today … whats the betting we see a similar lazarus style resurrection in his form very very shortly…. backed
Some others that Merit respect
War of Attrition – Backed
Miko De Beachene – not backed – waiting till afer gc
Knowhere – backed for a couple of quid – his letheby and christopher win last year now looks very hot
Simon – not backed yet – still humming and hawing
Reveillez – backed for a couple of quid at big odds on bf
Brooklyn Brownie – loitering at the bottom of the hadicap of a featherwight and previous experience of the fences – needs a run – not backed yet
#536
February 21st, 2009 10:48
Just remember guys that when backing horses that are running before the national and in the national in a double that you must ask for a special price as the bet will not count and will be settled as 2 singles.
It is classed as a related bet as one outcome will rely heavly on the other, so reduced odds are applied.
If backing Southern Vic to win todays race and then go on to win the national you wont get 3/1 and 25/1 and combined odds of just over 100/1 you will more likely only get offered odds of around 33-40/1 for this double.
So beware guys when placing doubles for the same horse this year.
#537
February 21st, 2009 11:05
Fleet Street has been backed on Betfair recently – was around 200 now 55 or so
Big positive if it wins today and has on board one of the three best National jockeys in my opinion
I think it’s always worth having a few extra quid on your horse in the National if Barry Geraghty, Paul Carberry or Ruby Walsh are riding
#538
February 21st, 2009 11:06
“Showlad Says:
February 21st, 2009 at 1:25 am
Crikey Systems I hope SV can come in the Top 3 – there are only bloody 5 in the race lol!”
Reply:
Nice one Showland but thats the point – every chance of a 1/2 or 3rd place!! Now this is the key point: a major GN trend is that a Grand National winner needs to come 1st/2nd or 3rd in a Chase prior to the GN in GN year.
If SV wins the GN the “Crisp factor” would then read (now ameneded)
ONE
“top 5 place in the Hennessy, top 3 in Irish, Scots or Welsh National, top 2 over National fences or 3+ chase wins at 3m+ with one being at 3m 4f+ or won a Class One Chase (G1/G2)over 25f or more in the race year entered for GN”.
or
TWO
“top 5 place in the Hennessy, top 3 in Irish, Scots or Welsh National, top 2 over National fences or 3+ chase wins at 3m+ with one being at 3m 4f+ or 1st/2nd or 3rd in a Class One Chase (G1/G2)over 25f or more in the race year entered for GN”.
Not such a big change is it considering the 1/2/3 25f Chase bit is already a key trend.
I’am not sayig SB will win the GN just that he will need to be in a short list if 1/2/3 today.
Anyone know the last time a GN winner never placed 1/2/3 in a Chase (any class) in GN year?
#539
February 21st, 2009 11:08
Correction:
It should say
“Anyone know the last time a GN winner was not placed 1/2/3rd in a Chase (any class)over 25f or more in GN year?
I would really like to know.
#540
February 21st, 2009 11:32
Systemsman – Papillon was not placed 1/2/3 in any chase the year he won the National. Infact the only time he finished in the top 3 of any race that year was 3rd in a hurdle race over 20f the race before the National. Form figures read 875493.
He did fit the stats though by coming 2nd in the Irish National 2 seasons previous and by finishing in the top 3 of any race in any of his 3 previous runs before the National itself.
#541
February 21st, 2009 11:32
Systemsman – Papillon didn’t – same trainer
#542
February 21st, 2009 11:42
Papillon won off 139 but his performance in Bobbyjo’s Irish National 2 seasons before was RPR 164 – a massive 25lb better
Southern Vic will be running off 143 in GN and did best RPR of 159 in Novice Chase at Naas Jan 06 – a very healthy 16lb differnce
Back to his best he is very well handicapped
But doubtful stayer in my opinion
#543
February 21st, 2009 11:43
Hi All.
Really looking 4ward to Racing POst Chase 2day
Conna ready 4 big race. Endless Power silly odds and dark horse with unkown abilities re stamina.
Prices will tumble if either of these win or place 2 day.
Silver HT runs tomorrow at Naes in the 4.50pm.
Systems, yes SV will then fit stats, but hardly a testing trial, lol
I will have to see a BRILLIANT run from him 2day, as currently find SV far too moody and inconsistent to warrant my serious money.
Enjoy today all! 6 weeks to the Big One
#544
February 21st, 2009 12:22
Guys,
Following on from Crisp’s excellent post earlier re the “Hennessy/Irish/Scots/Welsh Nat/GN fences/3 wins at 24f one being at 28f” trend. I have carried on his work…
72) Well To Do – 3×24f wins including 1×28f
74) Red Rum – 2nd Hennessey/3×24f inc 1×28f
75) L’Escargot – 2nd in race over GN fences
76) Rag Trade – won Welsh Nat/3×24f inc 1×28f
77) Red Rum – won Scots Nat/2nd Hennessey/3×24f inc 1×28f
79) Rubstic – 2nd Scots Nat/3×24f inc 1×28f
80) Ben Nevis -3×24f inc 1×28f
81) Aldaniti – 3rd Hennessey/2nd Scots Nat
82) Grittar – 1st in race over GN fences
83) Corbiere – won Welsh Nat/3×24f inc 1×28f / (poss 5th Hennessey)
84) Hallo Dandy – 3×24f inc 1×28f
85) Last Suspect – 3rd Irish Nat/3×24f inc 1×28f
86) West Tip – 3×24f inc 1×28f
87) Maori Venture – 3rd Hennessey
88) Rhyme N Reason – won Irish Nat / 2nd Welsh Nat /5th Hennessey(’85 may have done better in other years?)/3×24f inc 1×28f
89) Little Polveir – won Scots Nat/3×24f inc 1×28f …..
90) Mr Frisk – 3rd Hennessy/3x24f wins inc 1x28f
91) Seagram – 3x24f wins inc 1x28f
92) Party Politics – 2nd Hennessy/2nd Welsh Nat
93) VOID
94) Miinnehoma – 3rd Welsh Nat
95) Royal Athlete – 3x24f wins inc 1x28f
96) Rough Quest – 2nd Hennessy
97) Lord Gyllene – 3x24f wins inc 1x28f
98) Earth Summit – Won and 2nd Welsh Nat/Won Scots Nat/3x24f wins inc 1x28f
99) Bobbyjo – Won Irish Nat/3x24f wins inc 1x28f
00) Papillon – 2nd Irish Nat
01) Red Marauder – 5th Hennessy
02) Bindaree – 3rd Welsh Nat/5th Hennessy
03) Monty’s Pass – 2nd in race over GN fences
04) Amberleigh House – Won race over GN fences and 2nd twice
05) Hedgehunter – 3rd Welsh Nat/4th Hennessy
06) Numbersixvalverde – Won Irish Nat/3x24f wins inc 1x28f
07) Silver Birch – Won over GN fences/Won Welsh Nat/3x24f wins inc 1x28f
08) Comply Or Die – 4th Hennessy
So that’s every single winner since ’79 that has met this trend. Making it look very strong to me. I will certainly be using it to narrow down the field on the day.
Opinions guys?
#545
February 21st, 2009 12:46
Re: Monty’s Pass – his win in the Kerry National was the key for me – his second in the Topham showed he got round the fences well
But Topham is not a 3m+ race
Seagram – 3rd Racing Post Chase
Royal Athlete – 3rd Gold Cup
Lord Gyllene won Midlands National
Montys Pass won Kerry National
Amberleigh House won Beecher Chase
Rambo has not won or placed in one of these races – but has won a Borders National
Win or place in any UK or Irish National, Hennessy (top 5), Becher Chase, Racing Post Chase and Gold Cup (top 5) are 3m+ races to concentrate on in my opinion – all require a combination of jumping and stamina (some more than others) in (normally) biggish fields – which makes them reasonable trials
Previous Aintree experience not essential
#546
February 21st, 2009 12:49
I might be wrong here guys but i think the last 6/7 winners have had a completed run around Aintree. Surely this would rule SV out, either way i won’t be backing him.
Anyone got any views on Fundamentalist, i think he is a huge price for a horse that won at Aintree earlier in the season at 3m 2f, i assume he’ll be running at Cheltenham at some point
#547
February 21st, 2009 12:59
Stephen great work which I will keep a copy of for future years. Its very impressive and it realy make sme worried about Rambo and any other hosre who doe snot fit the profile.
So where does this leave Rambo and all his fans on this site(one of my cocerns I mentioned much earlier – he aslo only has a 40% {1/2/3 in Chases] strike rate not the minimum 42%)? You dont appear to include the Scottish Borders National in your list won by Rambo. Everyone dont get me wrong – I am a big fan of Rambo but we must also look at any weekness.
Stephen do you have a short list based on your work? (or has it bene posted? – can you give date so i can find it).
#548
February 21st, 2009 13:01
Just as a matter of interest, the Key Stats on today’s Racing Post Chase as follows:
Top Four in Betting 10/12
Weight above 11st 9/12
Official Handicap Mark 143 – 152 10/12
Won Class 2 Chase at least 10/12
Won over 3m 10/12
1st or 2nd last time out 11/12
On this basis, if we apply the 10/12 trends and above, but exclude the betting at this stage, we are left with the following:
BIG FELLA THANKS
UNGARO
FLEET STREET
At this stage, the only one with a top four quote with Ladbrokes is BIG FELLA THANKS, but this may change closer to the off, with both Ungaro and Fleet Street in the top 6/7. Fleet Street would be very interesting for the National if winning this, so it may be worth having a small stake on him prior to the race.
Have a great day!
#549
February 21st, 2009 13:51
“Stayer- interesting use of the English Language, spurious, which is an adjective and means ‘not genuine or real’
it looks quite real to me, you can check the rest on racing post, I can’t be bothered to type any more.”
Crisp,
A lot of my work involves analysing sets of data and looking at relationships between them. We use the word “spurious” when there appears to be a correlation between data sets but the correlation has no grounding i.e. they are random/coincidental.
As I said further up I think the relationship between the National winner and previous form in Hennessy’s, Welsh Nationals etc is somewhat like this. The national is a staying race for staying horses so one would expect the horses lining up in the National to have experience in other big staying handicaps. It’s more an issue of natural progression rather than a requirement to win a National. Say Southern Vic hacks up by 10l today. Would you seriously leave him out of the reckoning? If he wins tomorrow and finishes third in the National it won’t be because he’s not finished 3rd in a Hennessy or a Welsh National it will because he isn’t good enough.
#550
February 21st, 2009 14:00
Although I know it doesn’t feature a National entry this year, but just had a look at the key stats for the Eider, based on the last 12 years.
These are:
Top 6 in betting
OR of 121-139
Carrying 11 stone or more
Winner of Class 2 Chase+
Winner at 3m1f+
Aged 7-10
Top 4 finish last time out
Based on these, only two horses meet the criteria:
JASS
MERIGO
#551
February 21st, 2009 14:27
I’am off now to put some more ££££££££££ on Southern Vic before his 1st/2nd /3rd today when the price will drop. 25/1 still available but will it be later tonight?
#552
February 21st, 2009 15:12
I am with you Systemsman – GREAT WORK Stephen continuing Crips’s excellent post. Shall we call it it the STepehn Crispa stat lol. Again with Systems – would be great if you can show us the list who fits in wit this trend.
This trend was in the main one of my reasons for tipping BC last year, who knows if it may have delivered if he hadn’t fallen?
Are you including Rambo’s last win as a ‘Borders National’?
I think all long distance, quality ‘Nationals’ may well be good to be included.
#553
February 21st, 2009 15:16
Sorry but I feel this lifetime chase strike rate statistic is misleading to say the least
Consider what Rambo’s objective is – to win a a race over 4m 4f (36f)
Distance Runs wins places unplaced win/place win
All 15 5 1 9 40% 33%
24f+ 14 5 1 9 43% 46%
25f+ 10 5 1 4 60% 50%
27f+ 3 3 0 0 100% 100%
28f+ 2 2 0 0 100% 100%
32f+ 1 1 0 0 100% 100%
Looks to me like Rambo gets better the further he goes
#554
February 21st, 2009 15:35
Absolutely Pablo. The focus in main for srike rates should lean heavily towards long distance runs.
A horse has 9 2nd places at 3m, but loves a 4m + try out. This could spell a major stayer in the amking but his stat would be only 10%.
All stats need common sense evaluation and then we all make up our OWN MINDS with which stats WE CHOOSE to heed.
That’s where the RESPECT for each other comes in.
Yes Pablo with you on this one – strike needs to heed the race in mind.
#555
February 21st, 2009 15:45
Re: Systemsman – “So where does this leave Rambo and all his fans on this site(one of my cocerns I mentioned much earlier – he aslo only has a 40% {1/2/3 in Chases] strike rate not the minimum 42%)? You dont appear to include the Scottish Borders National in your list won by Rambo. Everyone dont get me wrong – I am a big fan of Rambo but we must also look at any weekness.”
Yes, you are right to say we should study weaknesses as keenly as we study strong points. And, by definition statistics are cold and rigid.
However, Rambo’s 1,2,3 chase ratio of 40% would suddenly leap to 47% had he finished only half a length quicker at Haydock in December 2007 when 4th behind Cloudy Lane, Comply or Die and High Chimes. I don’t think this half length can possibly affect his chances of landing a Grand National, even though the stats would suggest otherwise.
In this context you can see the potential pitfalls of stats being viewed as gods. As the Yanks say, I think we need to give some stats a little ‘latitude.’
My only concern with Rambo is the lack of Welsh National, Hennessy or Aintree experience, which is not essential but arguably desirable.
I’m loving your work Systemsman – and, like many others, I’m very grateful.
#556
February 21st, 2009 15:48
However my stats were misleading!!
All runs 40% win & place
25+ 66% win & place
Rambo pulled up over 33f GF in Scottiah National – probably won’t be GF at Aintree and 5th over 30f at Sandown (right handed track – then went on to best two performances ever)
Still I think he’s shown enough not to be worried about a career 40% strike rate (win & place)
#557
February 21st, 2009 15:53
Sorry having a nightmare – should be 26f+ 66% win & place
#558
February 21st, 2009 16:02
Garde Champetre
just having a closer look at this one, please do not discount just because of the french bred connection. What other trends does this horse fail on? At the weights, he looks well in. An out and out stayer, great jumper (cross country background)….40/1? I like the formline that runs from Rambo to Kilbeggan Blade through to Garde Champetre
#559
February 21st, 2009 16:18
big redline through endless power, battlecry, possibly fleet street
#560
February 21st, 2009 16:20
fleet street very disappointing – geraghty working hard all the way and dropped out of contention very quickly – probably non runner I would imagine
#561
February 21st, 2009 16:23
what you make of ollie magerns run
#562
February 21st, 2009 16:25
Southern Vic’s jumping was shocking – VERY POOR 4TH and looked to be tiring, lol!!!
Definitely off the Top List.
#563
February 21st, 2009 16:27
Conna Castle promising 6th (I think) and running on well.
#564
February 21st, 2009 16:29
Had a feeling SV would deliver a dud today and so glad I didn’t stock up on his dwindling price
#565
February 21st, 2009 16:35
Yes, much like Hear The Echo last week Southern Vic didn’t jump great there. On a positive note he seemed to jump a bit left so going left at Aintree should improve that. However, having backed him for the National i’m probably clutching at straws.
#566
February 21st, 2009 16:47
i was done in! put some money on Black Apps to watch, but only heard last two jumped on will hill radio, sounded good for my selection! but what happened to SV? oh ok. shocking! showlad, was he pulled up too?
Ollie M looked good compared to recent shows, Conna Castle went well I thought, don’t see why the interest in Fleet Street, my picks are looking good all of a sudden
#567
February 21st, 2009 16:51
also had computer crash when trying to get on Merigo in eider, oh well! just some fun and I still have hope for comply!!! interested to see if him trail gets all springtime tmw!
#568
February 21st, 2009 16:53
Hi KJ, SV started promisingly enough, then a cpl poor jumps and finally just ran out of any stamina/fifth gear and came in 4th out of 5. For a horse that hasn’t won since 06 I wouldn’t be running to place a bet on him lol!
#569
February 21st, 2009 17:01
I haven’t backed Southern Vic but I didn’t think he did that badly – one mistake and then the rider gave up riding
He was badly off with the others at the weights but right in contention when making the blunder
He’s 8lb better off with Snowy Morning at Aintree
One Cool Cookie is 5lb better of with Snowy Morning
And Black Apalachi is 2lb worse off with Snowy Morning
Which all means that Black Apalachi is right back in the picture I would say but with 8lb less Southern Vic is no forlorn hope if he jumps well (and of course if he stays)
#570
February 21st, 2009 17:01
How did Black Apalachi run. the fact he won looks at good bet for national but carrying 10-11 for it with the prospect of the weights rising 4 or 5lb should i hold back placing my bet?
Can anyone see the price dropping much further than 12s within the next 4 weeks especially since he hasn’t any further runs booked
#571
February 21st, 2009 17:04
From my own observations it would seem that on the whole southern vic jumped fine( albeit a little out to the right) .. he seemed to be absolutely cruising as they turned into the straight and i was thinking to myself . wow your looking good boy … then he had what can only be described as the mother of all horlicks , crashing through the third last which completely knocked the stuffing out of him and his chance was gone . im sure there will be some who would suugest he was incredibly unlucky , however my own observation on him today is that when it came to the business end of the race and jumping under pressure at speed , vic was found wanting . i have to be honest and say i cant see him winning a national based on that … accordingly i am removing him from my list and topping up further on rambling minster
NEW TOP 5
1 = STATE OF PLAY
1 = RAMBLING MINSTER
3 HIMALAYAN TRAIL
4 GARDE CHAMPETRE
5 = KNOWHERE ( NEW ENTRY) !
Only silver cloud today was i backed merigo in the eider . how on earth did morgan be not win that .quite incredible – lets see if im about to endure further pain tomorrow with himalayan trail:-)
#572
February 21st, 2009 17:08
Lets be honest. Southern Vics chances are over. He hasnt won a race since 06, has no form on the kind of ground he will encounter at Aintree and has atrocious form. I wouldn’t be backing him at 80/1 never mind still under 30s on Betfair. As for Black Apalachi, it was quite a good performance and I do like him, but he was much better in today than he will be at Aintree and Phil Smith makes it extremely difficult for Becher winners to have a chance these days. I think Mr Pointment was better than Apalachi and even he struggled with his weight. Was running nicely to about a mile out. Weight just killed his chances. Same is likely to happen with BA. Therefore Johnny, although he’s gonna give you a good run I wouldn’t be backing it, especially at 12s. Likely to be about 9-10/1 on the day.
Hope this helps
Ells
1
#573
February 21st, 2009 17:16
agree 100% with lough derg, great post
my top 3 (in no particular order)
1. RAMBLING MINSTER
2. GARDE CHAMPETRE
3. HIMALAYAN TRAIL
Its coming together….
#574
February 21st, 2009 17:23
A big weight will really test Black Apalachi at Aintree even if the going is soft as he likes, perhaps I should say especially if it’s soft as he likes.
This horse went 16 chases between victories over three years (!!!) and although his recent form is impressive, I don’t think it’s GN winning form. It won’t stop the Irish piling the cash on him though.
It would be interesting to work out his 1,2,3 chase ratio. Less than 30%??
#575
February 21st, 2009 17:28
Yer, thats the problem he needs soft/heavy but with that kind of weight there’s better horses, who are better in, who go on that ground, that have more chance – Chelsea Harbour, Preists Leap etc.
Not sure if anybody’s already seen this but..
Silver Birch is to miss the Cheltenham Festival in favour of an alternative route to Aintree for the John Smith’s Grand National.
Gordon Elliott’s 12-year-old ran in the Cross Country Chase at the Festival two years ago before going on to claim the National and his trainer had planned to follow the same path this time around.
However, he has ruled out the Glenfarclas-sponsored Cross Country at Cheltenham and will instead sun his charge in a point-to-point this weekend with his final prep race set to be over hurdles at Navan on March 15.
“We decided to give the race a miss with Silver Birch. The plan now is to run in another point-to-point in Kilkenny this Sunday and then go back over hurdles at Navan on the Sunday after Cheltenham,” Elliott is quoted as saying in the Racing Post. “All going well, he’ll then go back to Liverpool.”
Injury deprived Silver Birch of the opportunity to defend his Grand National crown and Elliott is hopeful the new plan will work in his favour.
“We decided it was the wrong thing to do to go back over the banks at Cheltenham as he might only get on more chance to go back for the National again,” Elliott continued.
“He’s in great nick and fingers crossed we can get him to Aintree in one piece.”
Very interesting, and if he wins that P2P and then his hurdle race then going to be a very short price.
Ells
1
#576
February 21st, 2009 17:34
Sorry I disagree Lough, sure the weight for Black Apps may well be too much and beehers are over punished, but I see him stayin better than Mr.Pointment! who I never saw getting home last year, glad to see his connections have seemingly realised he couldn’t win GN even with 10stone! Glad I am on Black Apps at 33s plus, he is out of Be my native thats not a bad thing.
Anyone that saw the race can I ask how well BA did it? good jumping? fluid travelling? same goes for Snowy mornings reappearance cheers.
#577
February 21st, 2009 17:35
Well the National picture is getting a little bit clearer now, i think it is safe to rule out Southern Vic now, his jumping just did not seem good enough, he found no height.
Black apalachi will certainly have too much weight.
Battlecry seemed not to stay Fleet Street did not really show endless power was never mentioned.
So when you look back over the last 200 posts Rambling Minster is on everyones lists so surely if the stats go to plan, and he keeps on his feet he must surely be in the first 4 home?
So with so many contenders showing their cards today and none seemingly holding the aces Rambling Minster must be an outstanding bet at 20/1 with 5/1 place money on offer.
#578
February 21st, 2009 17:44
they are protecting Silvers legs and if he comes out ok can’t say I wouldn’t back him!
BA now jf with BC, if I was beginning to look now for my winner like every year before, I wouldn’t back these two I have to say.
#579
February 21st, 2009 17:56
Fair enough KJ, each to their own, I actually thought Pointment would just think the weight got to much of him. Either way my point with Black Apalachi is that I still feel he has too much weight. Wasn’t like he was running off anywhere near the same mark today as he will be doing at Aintree and needs soft/heavy to be at his best. Like the horse and could win it under different circumstances but seems to be a victim of the handicapper.
Really hope Himalayan Trail runs well tomorrow otherwise worried I’m not going to have enough horses to bet on lol.
Ells
1
#580
February 21st, 2009 18:04
I’ll admit I have backed southern vic already but a couple of points.
He looked big enough before the race.
This was his first time going right handed for 4 or 5 years and he did not look comfortable jumping always to the left.
Paul Carbery stopped riding after he made a bad mistake at the third last.
#581
February 21st, 2009 18:21
Well I was wrong about Rambling Minster last week, but I think I was right about Southern Vic this week! Saved me some stake money.
#582
February 21st, 2009 18:25
agreed Lough, just hoping for a decent run for my money the whole way round! and hopefully a place! Haven’t played the layin game,. so if I’m on I’m on! old fashioned I suppose, that sounds dodgey!?!
Would like to hear about BAs jumping today, as looked a while back at his departure in the GN last year and he was doing a handstand! but none of that in the Beacher so I suppose I can answer my own ?s
Hope its spring like in Ireland tmw, to convince Himalayan Trail to come out of his shell and play for our coppers, think may still be in the dark with this one tmw and could be dark horse…other than Cornish of course
#583
February 21st, 2009 18:32
i cannot beleive anybody still thinks there is any chance for southern vic.never have fancied it i thought he never ran fluently or jumped well with any conviction or height.i also think people are going overboard with black app.especially the bookies.different race and conditions etc. i know but compare his run to the one we witnessed last week in rambo, how fluent and clean he was.
rambo,state of play,him.trail,garde.champ and of cause butlers.
#584
February 21st, 2009 18:47
I have just watched the Bobbyjo and Racing Post Chases again. Perhaps I was a bit harsh on Southern Vic immediately after the race as his run wasn’t actually as bad as I thought. He did hold every chance 3-out and didn’t look that tired but after the mistake Paul Carberry didn’t get after him and let him come home in his own time. I’m still disappointed with that but it’s not as bad as it looked at face value.
The annying thing about Black Apalachi was that I backed him for the National @ 66s last year only to see him tip-up at the second. I got my money back and more in the Becher Chase and he clearly relishes a slog in the mud. His form on better ground is less good and he does have a big weight this year. Soft/heavy ground would make carrying a big weight more difficult but in those conditions he would be a serious contender as he would be won of only a handful of horses that would see out the trip in that sort of ground. Not an AP proposition for me as to me his chance is ground dependant but I can see him being a bit of a plunge horse if the ground was very testing.
As for the Racing Post Chase, I don’t think any of the horses there caught the eye with a view on the National. Ollie Magern ran a sound enough race but the likes of Fleet Street and Endless Power ran very disappointingly. Conna Castle didn’t jump that well and ran a strange sort of race. He seemed to get a bit outpaced as he was just getting into the race, which is not what I would expect given he’s a GD 1
As
As for the Racing
#585
February 21st, 2009 18:50
Don’t know what happened there. It just submitted!!!
Anyway, yes Conna Castle sort of got outpaced then sort of stayed on then sort of got out-stayed again at the end. Difficult to assess him, but overall none of the horses from that race are screaming at me to back them for Aintree.
#586
February 21st, 2009 18:54
I have a small bit each way on Sothern Vic and was pleased enough with how he ran. But he just does not look a true stayer and for that reason I would not be backing him again. And for all you guys with Butlets Carbin and Garde Champetre on your shortlists, get the red pen out!
#587
February 21st, 2009 19:08
..another good point to take from SV’s 4th out of 5 –
I notice he had 4 legs and a tail – must count for something!!
#588
February 21st, 2009 19:24
why must we put a red line through garde champetre?
second best tip as far as i can see….!
#589
February 21st, 2009 19:28
Stayer – agree about Black Appalachi – he’s on list for the day, especially if weights don’t go up
Three that really interest me at the moment:
Rambling Minster (bundles on & fingers crossed)
State of Play (backed – hope he’s in top shape on race day)
Himalayan Trail (backed – looking for encouraging run tomorrow and will top up if he produces)
Others on longer list:
Notre Pere (if skips Cheltenham and weights stay the same)
Black Appalachi (if weights stay same)
Long shots:
Cane Brake (backed at big prices – liked the way he stayed on in Kauto Star’s Gold Cup)
#590
February 21st, 2009 19:30
why whitearab because they are french ????? yyyaaaawwwwnnnn
are you wacky in disguise?
#591
February 21st, 2009 19:44
Russell,
I posted this further up. Have a careful look through Garde Champetre chase form. He’s been a revelation since switching to the X-Country and Banks courses but his previous chase form was well below the level required to win a National. Turned over at odds on a few times and he was a novice chaser for two seasons as he couldn’t get his head in front the first season. Stamina is also dubious. Lasts out over 3m7f in these slowly run X-Country chases but was well beaten in the 4-miler at Cheltenham a couple of years ago.
#592
February 21st, 2009 19:49
see i view it differently,
in my opinion he is a progressive sort and has got stamina, his form over x-xountry suggests this. Remember this horse beat Monets Garden off level weights in his youth, among others (incl Inglis Drever).
His form since that race at Cheltenham has been astounding and running round Aintree off only 10 st….i dont know, i cant rule this one out.
Thanks Stayer for the reply, i agree that his stamina has not been proved in a quicker run long distance race
#593
February 21st, 2009 20:00
Russell,
He was a very progressive hurdler for sure but he very much regressed when novice chasing. It is possible that it took him a while to get his act together over the bigger obstacles and is now approaching something like the promise he showed as a hurdler That is possible, but to me it looked like he lost his way and was sent to have a crack at these X-Country races as they weren’t sure where to go with him. He’s done really well in that sphere but it’s difficult to decipher how he will fare in a more conventional race. These X-Country races are run at a slow pace and contested by a lot of horses that are on the downgrade. I don’t know how reliable the form is but taken at face-value I think it may over-state Garde Champetre’s ability.
#594
February 21st, 2009 20:15
did people not think and some said that about silver birch thou the stayer?
#595
February 21st, 2009 20:16
will rambling minster get arun in the national?
#596
February 21st, 2009 20:50
Yes because he is French bred but also because he has generally only ran in cross-country races. Yawn all you like Minty, the facts on French Breds is possibly the strongest statistic of them all and has never failed me in 20 years. Not a winner for 100 years exactly (lots have tried) and a handful of places from the last 80+ runners. But keep throwing your cash away all you like – happy for you shorten up Butlers Cabin all you like – helps with other prices. It’s appreciated mate!
#597
February 21st, 2009 21:16
whitey i aint going to fall out with you and i think we have floggred the french thing with wacko to death.we will agree to disagree please come back after the race and explain what happened and how you intend adjusting your stats.even if bc does not do the buiss,which is possible,i bet you it aint another 100 years before one does win.they are getting stronger and nearer and our side do argue bc is not really french anyway.
#598
February 21st, 2009 22:11
“did people not think and some said that about silver birch thou the stayer?”
I mentioned this further up Minty. Silver Birch boasted had only raced a few times over the X-Country courses and more importantly boasterd some very good form over conventional fences having won the Welsh National and Becher Chase. Garde Champetre has run to nowhwere near that level outside of the X-Country arena and looks to me to be a X-Country specialist.
#599
February 21st, 2009 22:55
Thank you to Systemsman and Showlad for the mention. In answer to your questions…
“Systemsman Says:
February 21st, 2009 at 12:59 pm
Stephen great work which I will keep a copy of for future years. Its very impressive and it really makes me worried about Rambo and any other hosre who does not fit the profile.”
Rambo does indeed fit that profile as he has 3x24f wins inc 1x28f. So that’s good news on the Rambo front
“Showlad Says:
February 21st, 2009 at 3:12 pm
Again with Systems – would be great if you can show us the list who fits in wit this trend.”
I will try and do this tomorrow as it would take a bit of time. It should prove useful though.
“Systemsman Says:
February 21st, 2009 at 12:59 pm
Stephen do you have a short list based on your work? (or has it been posted? – can you give date so I can find it).”
I don’t have a definite short list as such Systemsman but I was a fan of Character Building back before Christmas and had a nibble on him EW. Unfortunately he doesn’t look up to scratch now. The other horse I have EW money on is of course Rambo as he seems to be the cast iron trends horse. So far they are my two with my money riding on them.
Looking at the list in betting order…
Butler’s Cabin – Still waiting for a top 3 finish. Excellent claims trends wise if he gets it. Poor in at the weights on his OR though and price has gone.
Black Apalachi – Pretty good trends wise. Awful percentage in top 3 placings in chases though and plenty high enough in weights. Plus ground won’t be in his favour. Not for me.
Comply Or Die – Was on last year when he won but can’t see a repeat. Too much weight. No back-to-back winner for yonks. No thanks.
Hear The Echo – Seemed to be the trends horse for this year. Given far too much weight though and seems to have gone off the boil. Probably not for me at this stage.
My Will – Again, meets a number of the trends but has only one run this season. Another high in the weights. Can’t have him at the moment.
Rambling Minster – Nice low weight. Fits virtually all trends there are. Has to be on anybody’s list.
Big Fella Thanks – Too young at 7. No chance.
Can’t Buy Time – Too young at 7. No chance.
Cloudy Lane – Didn’t seem to stay last year. More weight. Very little encouragement.
Notre Pere – Huge improvement in this horse. Will have a tough task that high up in the weights though, if he turns up at all.
Snowy Morning – Can’t see him going two better than last year. Not as good this time around and more weight.
Character Building – Fits some trends. One good win away from fitting all. Poor run last time though and question marks remain.
Looking further down…
Himalayan Trail – Only 8 chase runs, which is pretty low. Seems to have gone off the boil since moving to Ireland. Needs a top 3 finish soon. Two none finishes already this season. May not get in. Not convinced at the moment.
Kilbeggan Blade – Very low TS and RPR figures. Seems to tail off in spring. Poor record in C1 chases. However he has a low weight and excels over long distances. Chances; but take with caution.
Garde Champetre – Loves extreme distances and obviously takes to unique fences. Does fit a lot of trends and again has a lovely racing weight. Something niggles about him winning with me but could easily jump into a place.
State Of Play – Obviously a classy horse once. Could still retain the ability and could be well treated at his best. Long lay off worries me before a National as that is a strong trend. Another to treat with caution.
Nothing much else stands out and going off those above I think it comes down to what most people have on here already…
Top Pick
Rambo – Fits so many trends. High TS and RPR. Has 3x24f wins inc 1x28f. Will have a lovely racing weight on the day. Best Price 20/1 – Steam in!
In With Chances
Garde Champetre – Has 3x24f wins inc 1x28f. Decent TS and RPR. Will have a good weight. No C1 chase placing though. Best Price 40/1 – Nice Each Way bet.
Butler’s Cabin – Won Irish Nat. Fairly low TS and RPR, but qualifies. Not so well in at weights. Needs form soon but if finding it will be a threat on the day. Best Price 14/1 – Value all gone.
#600
February 21st, 2009 23:33
If ‘Rambo’ wins he will be the first GN winner since Lord Gyllene (1997) to have won more than once over fences in the preceding 360 days.
Rambling Minster will, of course, have already won two chases in about 100 days as he lines up on April 4.
Lord Gyllene won twice within about 70 days prior to his Aintree romp, but the next best is Bobbyjo (1999) who won twice in just under a year.
The average appears to be around 450 days since a GN winner’s last but one chase win. However, Comply Or Die (2008) and Silver Birch (2007) had only won once in the preceding 1,200 days and 850 days respectively.
Perversely, ‘Rambo’ would need to buck a trend which suggests horses can be too successful in the run-up to a Grand National bid, something Cloudy Lane (2008), Forest Gunner (2005), Dark Stranger (2000), Double Thriller (1999) and Suny Bay (1998 & 1999) couldn’t do.
Recent winning form is not essential, but recent good form is.
(I hope I’ve got my maths right, but if not I’m sure someone will let me know.)
#601
February 21st, 2009 23:59
With todays results and some mighty information here the last few days, I am begining to wonder has Silver Birch got anything to beat apart from Rambling Minster. Have I lost the plot, don’t all shout at once.
#602
February 22nd, 2009 01:11
Johnny Valentine on the face of it your post about winning form going into a national looks very strong but when you dig a little deeper it starts to unravel…
Dark stranger…. had a very poor OR and only ever ran off of 136 Twice in his life and never really met the 136-144 trend (10/11) also he ran in the National that red marauder won which was on desperate ground and only had 4 finishers.
Suny Bay…. both times ran off 11-12 and 11-13, so could not possibly win a national off this weight (in accordance with the stats).
Double thriller….. only had 2 chase wins to his name and had never been placed in a class 1 chase (he failed on the stats also).
Forest Gunner went into the 2005 national with only 2 previous runs that season and did not meet the min 3 runs stat, also he did not stay the distance…. he went into the 2006 national with poor form of ur pu pu (we knew after the previous years national that he did not stay)
So Rambling Minster goes into the national this year up holding all the stats that the above have failed on, i guess he will be the first real condender going into a national with good winning recent form and meeting all the stats……maybe it’s all the more reason to grab the 20/1 on offer.
#603
February 22nd, 2009 01:18
You’ve lost the plot miinne, he is racing in P2P for £150 win pots and suddenly he has proved he is back to his best and able to win the toughest chase in the world? Why are they not racing under rules against real opposition, something to hide? My mum could win some of these P2P races seriously a point to pointer winning the grand national, more chance accrington stanley winning the FA cup.
Haven’t got time to type a full review of todays trials and how they relate to the national but I’ll just say a big thumbs up to everything ‘the stayer’ has posted summed it up nicely.
As someone big into Southern Vic can’t express how disappointed I was with his run, never seemed to travel in his comfort zone to me and always seemed to struggle to keep up with BA, when he blundered at the third out was no surprise and only a jockey with the quality of Paul would have bought him home in one piece from there.
Stayer, I was huge on BA last year too at 120 to 66, recommended to my once a year friends too, it seems it was all a year too early, he got took off his feet last year if he had settled into the race he’d been a cast iron place with that feather weight. This year he is a bet on the day prospect only at current odds needs soft ground to win and we rarely get that at aintree.
I disagree with your harsh words on GC, Jonjo is a very average trainer who is unable to get the best out of alot of his horses dispite more financial backing than every other trainer even the great PFN, he nearly destoyed GC and hadn’t a fecking clue what to do with the horse. Enda has transformed him into a consistant winner and whilst X-country may not be the quickest in the world in that sphere he is asked to carry 12st at aintree he will only have to carry just over 10, I’d say that was a pretty fair trade off!
Ref the Rambling fan club, I’m definitely on board and loaded into him and today just franked his claims even more as every possible challenger fell flat on there arse. But and its a huge one. He has never seen the national fences some horses take one look and just down tools and say no thanks mate (see Monkerhostin mega gamble LOL)
Am I the only one who sees this HUGE hole in his form?
#604
February 22nd, 2009 01:28
btw to anyone clinging to the hopes of Exotic Dancer running I’d just say check out the current oddchecker odds between the Betfair price and high steet bookie price (bearing in mind the BF price is generally the smarter tissue) Bookies 33/1 Betfair 89/1 still think he is running?
#605
February 22nd, 2009 01:36
Sure it’s true that rambo has never seen the Aintree fences but i guess we could have said that about many other horses in the past…..i guess it’s the chance we take, the way he jumped last w/end i would have thought that he would be able to cope with them.
The thing is it could be a bonus that he has not seen them before, if he had run well over them before then Mr Smith would have given him much more weight(like he seems to do with horses that have previous experience over these fences, more so those that have won or been placed) and as a result he would not probably on our lips like he is now.
#606
February 22nd, 2009 01:47
Following today’s trials, herewith my shortlist for the National, in no particular order:
RAMBLING MINSTER
GARDE CHAMPETRE
BUTLERS CABIN
KILBEGGAN BLADE
HIMALAYAN TRAIL
STATE OF PLAY
PARSONS LEGACY
At this stage, on the assumption the weights will only go up 5-6lb, I cannot see the winner being outside these 7.
Just as a matter of interest, stats for the Eider spot-on today. As per my previous post, only 2 horses qualified, with the winner, one of the two!
#607
February 22nd, 2009 01:48
To be fair Brody I can’t imagine many people have taken the 33s at the bookies
If Exotic comes second in Gold Cup isn’t there a bonus on offer for winning the National (£1m or something)? That would concentrate the minds of connections
Think that the Betfair price factors that uncertainty in – bookies have just priced up a default price – most are 33/1 to 50/1 regardless of their chance
Certainly doesn’t mean he’s a definite no-show at Aintree in my opinion
#608
February 22nd, 2009 03:20
We’ll see Pablo but the multi-millionarie Sir Robert Ogden hardly needs to risk one of his favourite horse for a paultry £1 mill
#609
February 22nd, 2009 10:28
“Showlad Says:
February 21st, 2009 at 3:12 pm
Again with Systems – would be great if you can show us the list who fits in wit this trend.”
Here is the list I have made for all runners between fav and 40/1 in the betting. The list is in betting order and I must stress that it is current as of today and could change ever so slightly between now and race day.
Black Apalachi – Won over GN fences
Butler’s Cabin – Won Irish Nat
Comply Or Die – 4th Hennessy/3x24f wins inc 1x28f
Hear The Echo – Won Irish Nat
My Will – 5th Hennessy
Rambling Minster – 3x24f wins inc 1x28f
Big Fella Thanks – NO MATCH
Can’t Buy Time – NO MATCH
Cloudy Lane – NO MATCH
Notre Pere – Won Welsh Nat/3rd Irish Nat/3x24f wins inc 1x28f
Snowy Morning – NO MATCH
Character Building – 3rd Hennessy
Chelsea Harbour – 3x24f wins inc 1x28f
Exotic Dancer – NO MATCH
Himalayan Trail – 3x24f wins inc 1x28f
Kilbeggan Blade – 3x24f wins inc 1x28f
King Johns Castle – NO MATCH (Unless you include the National itself, which I am not doing as that isn’t the trend)
Priests Leap – NO MATCH
Simon – NO MATCH
Southern Vic – NO MATCH
State Of Play – Won Hennessy
War Of Attrition – NO MATCH
Hot Weld – Won Scots Nat/3x24f wins inc 1x28f
Madison Du Berlais – Won and 4th Hennessy
Star De Mohaison – NO MATCH
Air Force One – 2nd Hennessy
Cane Brake – NO MATCH
Cornish Sett – 2nd Welsh Nat
Garde Champetre – 3x24f wins inc 1x28f
Miko De Beauchene – Won Welsh Nat/3x24f wins inc 1x28f
Mon Mome – 2nd Welsh Nat
Parsons Legacy – 3rd Scots Nat/5th Hennessy
Silver Birch – Won Welsh Nat/Won over GN fences/3x24f wins inc 1x28f
It certainly proves interesting. Out of the 33 horses listed above 12 of them do not meet this trend going back to 1979.
Does that help Systemsman and Showlad? And anyone else for that matter.
#610
February 22nd, 2009 11:21
Fantastic work Showlad.
Use this tool combined with my Pre Chritmas trends and every year you can have some good early ante -post bets pre Christmas on a possible GN winner at gigantic prices.
Will post again on this later today.
Looks like on almost all counts Southern Vic is now off the short list (even if I do have money on it).
Hot Weld also has to win a race and has to few prep races (I think he wil head for the Scots Nat anyway).
Parsons Legacy (I’am still holding off at the moment)- will he run? Still a bit high in the betting for me at this point.
#611
February 22nd, 2009 11:23
Re: Puzzled – ‘Johnny Valentine on the face of it your post about winning form going into a national looks very strong but when you dig a little deeper it starts to unravel…’
Absolutely right, Puzzled. I think Rambo is best qualified to extend his winning form out of the horses I listed. One thing that is really baffling me is the fact that, knowing everything we know, why is Rambling Minster such a big price?
I wouldn’t offer anyone any more than 10/1 at this stage, and if nothing changes between now and April 4, he could merit a price as low as 7/1?
If he gets round (and I think his chances are better than evens) he will surely make the frame. Or am I being blinded by the bright lights of profit?
That’s not to say I’ve given up looking for an alternative winner in the form of Miko, State of Play and a few others.
#612
February 22nd, 2009 11:35
“Systemsman Says:
February 22nd, 2009 at 11:21 am
Fantastic work Showlad.”
Erm… I think you mean fantastic work Stephen
That took me ages this morning ha ha.
Although I’m sure Showlad has done fantastic work other times and he will also appreciate me doing the list
#613
February 22nd, 2009 12:02
RE Johnny valentine- I think Rambo is best qualified to extend his winning form out of the horses I listed. One thing that is really baffling me is the fact that, knowing everything we know, why is Rambling Minster such a big price?
This year it is a very undecided market, for example if you look at the books of the leading bookies between themselves they all have the 1st 9 in the betting market at 14/1, i have never seen an anti post market priced in such a fashion- they just have not worked it out themselves yet
The variety in prices offered for the 1st 9 is amazing sure some are offering 20/1 about Rambo and others as low as 14/1…if you combined all their markets and took the lowest price offered it would look something like this
Black apalachi 12/1jf
Butlers cabin 12/1 jf
Rambling Minster 14/1
My will 14/1
Comply or die 14/1
Hear the echo 14/1
Big fella thanks 14/1
Notre Pere 14/1
So at this stage i would be very pleased that i could still get 20/1 about Rambo and not be concerned that his price is bigger than i expected (and i agree with you it’s an outstanding price)
But this year the bookies are all over the place thats why the prices seem to have no fluency.
#614
February 22nd, 2009 12:05
I think if the race were to be run next week then Rambo would be around the 10/1 mark but there are a few other leading horses that will run before the race, including all the Cheltenham entries, before the market takes shape – and there’ll probably be a plunge horse during the last week
But 20/1 does look like a good bet right now
#615
February 22nd, 2009 12:09
Also Rambo not trained in Ireland or from a leading stable
#616
February 22nd, 2009 12:13
Stephen I do apologise – “Fantastic work Stephen” and I do mean it. I very, very useful tool this year and for other years.
#617
February 22nd, 2009 12:33
Yes Stepehn Great work:) Off to my Aun’s today, can’t wait till I get back tonight to devour it
Well guys, got some of the 40 odds offered on HT on betfair last night, if he joins Hot Weld, SV and many many more in the land of dissappointing prep runs, so be it.
SURELY these HUGELY terrible prep runs for the GN fancies CANNOT continue lol.
#618
February 22nd, 2009 12:44
Here is Stephens trends list combined with Systemsman’s Pre-Christmas winners profile list
1. Rambling Minster – 3×24f wins inc 1×28f
2. Butler’s Cabin – Won Irish Nat (needs 1/2/3 in 25f or more chase still)
3. Kilbeggan Blade – 3×24f wins inc 1×28f
4. Himalayan Trail – 3×24f wins inc 1×28f (two fail to finish!!)
5. Black Apalachi – Won over GN fences (tto much weight now)
6. Hear The Echo – Won Irish Nat (too much weight now)
7. Garde Champetre – 3×24f wins inc 1×28f
8. Parsons Legacy – 3rd Scots Nat/5th Hennessy (will he run – slighty high in the betting)
+ These two I dont fancy now
9. Chelsea Harbour – 3×24f wins inc 1×28f
10.Southern Vic – NO MATCH (needed a 1/2/3 at 25f in Chase and faled yesterday)
The winner lies in the eight against the field!!
Best 5 in order.
1. Rambling Minster – 3×24f wins inc 1×28f
1. Butler’s Cabin – Won Irish Nat
3. Garde Champetre – 3×24f wins inc 1×28f
4. Parsons Legacy – 3rd Scots Nat/5th Hennessy
5. Himalayan Trail – 3×24f wins inc 1×28f (just dont like two to fail to finish this season but still a very good trends horse!!)
State Of Play – waiting (in Stephens list but not my Pre-Christmas list)- will bet (and he will join the list of nine against the field) if he is under 11.00 – tis is a safety bet for me.
Looks like Performance Factor and me agree in full.
#619
February 22nd, 2009 12:58
Hi Systems, heading out now.
Just a quick Q re your lovely list – no Cornish Sett or Mon Mome on your list?
#620
February 22nd, 2009 14:29
Latest race info from the racing post…….
Endless Power dies after Racing Post Chase injury
THE Jim Goldie-trained Endless Power has died after fracturing his pelvis in the Racing Post Chase at Kempton on Saturday.
The nine-year-old had won the Grand Sefton over the Aintree fences in November and was being aimed at the Grand National.
However, he was pulled up before the fourth-last and died just hours after the race.
A stable spokeswoman said: “He fractured his pelvis in the race.
“There were complications afterwards and we tried our best to save him.
“Unfortunately, he passed away lastnight before we even got the chance to put him down.”
#621
February 22nd, 2009 14:32
Just to remind everyone, here are the GN withdrawal dates………. first forfeit stage February 24, second forfeit stage March 17. Five/six-day confirmation stage March 30, final declaration stage 10.00am, April 2.
Why is Rambling quoted at 20/1 and not up there with the favourites? He’s listed 52nd in the handicap and as such can’t currently be considered a runner, even by those who know. 12 of the top 14 in the betting (most no-hopers) are filled with those who have guaranteed places. The fact that RM is currently 3rd favourite (Betfair) reflects how highly the bookies regard this this animals chances, if he lines up. I would say the same of Himalayan T who is less assure of a gallop on April 4th (and for whom I will have my fingers crossed tonight).
#622
February 22nd, 2009 14:33
yeah I’m still holding hopes for those two showlad, but they fail on the ran and finished before thing!
Like everything except Miko they didn’t come out rosey in Rambos race! result of a successful pre christmas campaign?
#623
February 22nd, 2009 14:43
sorry to hear about endless power.
Bolger has said that he intends to run Garde at cheltenham.. to win obviously as Nina is on a run of wins on him… and he says Garde likes to be fresh!
do we think he’ll even send him to Aintree?
#624
February 22nd, 2009 14:58
He says he likes Garde to be fresh but if you look at his last runs he’s only had about 4 weeks between his runs so that argument doesn’t hold up.In his x-country races he often has to be carry about 12-9 on heavy ground so his time is obviously going to be slower.
What if there is heavy rain?-not out of the question is it-he has improved massively since cheltenham and if he’d been winning a chase here or there he’d be carrying more weight.
I think all you Minster bunch think you’ve won already- there’s still plenty time to go.
I’ve bet Rambling Minster myself as well as Garde but i fancy Garde more!
#625
February 22nd, 2009 15:00
Does anyone know if Parsons Legacy is running this year or is he more likely to head for the Irish or Scottish National?
Is he in with a chance? Bad run latest…
#626
February 22nd, 2009 15:01
Was writing my message as Puzzled posted sad news about Endless Power. Kinda puts this all in to perpective!
#627
February 22nd, 2009 15:23
I was just suggesting Tex, Bolger may not want to send Garde to GN after continully winning the cross countries. There was no comment on GN so was speculating. Many people think cheltenham is too close at 22 days or something like that, I concluded the x country is different, Garde will be riden to win there with significant weight as per! and then we’ll see if 3wks is enough to win over 4miles! I for one rate Bolger as a trainer and like what he has done for Garde and L’Ami for that matter. I too am on both Garde & Rambo and its fair enough to get excited about Rambo, its better than the constant BCing!;)
#628
February 22nd, 2009 15:33
I like the fact Tex that you pointed to Garde winning these races with massive weight, contributing to the slower time, this is what gives us hope for the big one! hope he runs.
#629
February 22nd, 2009 16:22
Still not sure what to make of Garde Champetre’s level of form
+ve
Latest RPR of 154 compares very well to Grand National rating of 142
Seems to be improving in terms of RPR
Nice weight to carry
Decent trainer
Same sire as Royal Auclair – second behind Hedgehunter off a big weight
-ve
Trainer likes his winners at Cheltenham – is GN somewhat of an afterthought?
Proximity of Nadover in last run (Nadover well beaten in last year’s GN and comfortably beaten over regulation fences by Rambo at Haydock – albeit collateral form not always reliable)
Can’t bet on this one until after Cheltenham – if at all
#630
February 22nd, 2009 16:49
Nadover is no bad thing. Progressive, good jumper with a lot of stamina. He was only seven in last year’s GN and I think he did really well to finish seventh, admittedly a long way back. He’s not going to get in this year’s race but he could be one we’re talking about for 2010 or 2011, especially if he continues to steadily improve and clocks up a decent marathon chase win in the next 12 months. That’s realistic in my opinion.
He seems to stay (and was closing on Garde and L’Ami at Cheltenham) even though he’s……….ssshh…….French bred!!
There’s a lot to like about Garde (and a nice price too), but there’s also quite a few question marks. I suspect Cheltenham is the primary aim, so I’m definitely keeping my money dry for now.
#631
February 22nd, 2009 16:53
Anybody see Loughs performance just now at Fontwell, he really is just the best horse lol. Coming to the last in a line of 4, of course there’s only one winner
Looking forward to watching Himilayan Trail later.
Ells
1
#632
February 22nd, 2009 17:30
“Showlad Says:
February 22nd, 2009 at 12:58 pm
Hi Systems, heading out now.
Just a quick Q re your lovely list – no Cornish Sett or Mon Mome on your list?”
Reply:
Fair point Showland both are coming up on this sites “Grand National Runners Analysis Tool” whan I input key data. Have dicarded them in the past (CS 12th last year in GN and still 2×50/1 on Oddschecker.com: MM 10th last year in GN OR148 a little bit high [but a possibility], 1×40/1 on Odchecher.com still).As a rule I dont back last years GN placed runners – terrible record.
Anyone have views on these two?
A negative against Garde Champetre is that there are still 3x 40/1 still on Oddschecker.com but to be fair to him we need to see the price after Cheltenham.
Important ammendment to my post February 22nd, 2009 at 12:44 pm:
My short list should read:
Best 6 in order.
“Six against the field”.
1. Rambling Minster – 3×24f wins inc 1×28f
1. Butler’s Cabin – Won Irish Nat
3. Garde Champetre – 3×24f wins inc 1×28f
3. Kilbeggan Blade – 3×24f wins inc 1×28f
5. Parsons Legacy – 3rd Scots Nat/5th Hennessy
6. Himalayan Trail – 3×24f wins inc 1×28f (just dont like two to fail to finish this season but still a very good trends horse!!)
Forgot to add KB (silly me)
I think the winners is in there somewhere (the other four were Hear The Echo, Black Apalachi, Chelsea Harbour and Southern Vic all not looking good now, too much weight etc)
#633
February 22nd, 2009 17:42
News today (said in a very quiet voice)
Cheltenham:
“Butlers Cabin is also entered in the Cross-Country Chase but Jonjo O’Neill has the option of running his charge in the Pertemps Final and Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup”.
#634
February 22nd, 2009 18:00
Do we agree to put a red line through Himalayan trail after his performance just now???
#635
February 22nd, 2009 18:04
Couldn’t quite hear the commentary as kids party going on here!
Was that him finishing 5th?
#636
February 22nd, 2009 18:06
He’s 40′s with some(only 3) but none of the major bookies and also seeems to rarely be above 40s on Betfair,that for me is a sign that barring injury he’ll run, he’s also running on the 1st day of the festival which gives him 25 days to recover,not ideal but better than running on the friday, if anybody is thinking about having a bet on him i’d strongly advise taking 40s if you can get it,what’ll happen if butlers runs in that race and Garde beats him.Watch those odds go !
#637
February 22nd, 2009 18:06
I thought it was more like 9th or 10th.
I will have to look for the full result later on.
#638
February 22nd, 2009 18:16
Systemsman – I have a view about Mon Mome. French bred which is a problem and, on the face of it, has not run well in last 2 chases. Having said that, please take note that in both of those races he was creeping slightly closer in the final stages without ever getting competitive. Also, regarding last year’s National, you need to bear in mind that he was very badly hampered by the stricken Butler’s Cabin which completely disrupted the rhythm. I don’t think he would have won, but would have had a chance of 3rd or 4th. I think a small e/w bet can be considered for National.
I’ve seen a couple of comments on here about choosing a horse with a minimum TS of 128. I would treat this with caution as the late McKelvey’s minimum TS prior to 2007 National was 127 and, although not set in stone, I’m pretty sure he would have won that year if he hadn’t broken down.
Any thoughts? I think McKelvey met all the other stats
#639
February 22nd, 2009 18:24
Yep Himalayan Trail gone for me now. I was hoping he would run well today but that was very poor, even on soft ground, was expecting better than that. I’m a little worried that I have no horses this year lol. Think the Cheltenham Festival is going to have a much bigger part to play this year with so many of them planned to run there. Really hope Nicholls runs BFT at Aintree cos that should give us all better value on other horses. The more and more these fancied horses flop, SV, HT etc, and more and more inclined to the likes of L’ami and Silver Birch. Normally I would agree that our winner is in the top few in market but I’m not sure this year, Butlers Cabin is in terrible form, BFT has no chance, Black Apalachi is going to have too much weight etc. Seems like we’re getting real value on some of the more likely winners
. Rambo still 20s!
Ells
1
#640
February 22nd, 2009 18:41
Agreed – HT has it all to do but let’s face it he’s no Monty’s Pass and trainer will have to perform miracles to win GN now
Rambo at 20/1 still the value
Will look again at:
Mon Mome
Cornish Sett
Kilbeggan Blade
But I am clutching at straws to find any alternative to Rambo and State of Play – or if weights stay the same then Black Appalachi and Notre Pere have both run really well recently and would come into the picture
…unless something comes out of Cheltenham
#641
February 22nd, 2009 18:47
Himalayan Trail might be one to consider for 2010 though if trainer can keep his rating reasonably low and get him into some form – rated only 137
#642
February 22nd, 2009 18:55
Yep! I’m actually starting to hope Jonjo leaves Exotic in now because I’m struggling to find horses I actually want to back. L’ami, Garde Champetre, Rambo of course, Cornish Sett and small bet on Darkness. There’s some that may come into my reckoning if I see something more, Parsons, Butlers, Hot Weld etc. But at the moment id rather Exotic stayed in. Id be lumping right on Notre Pere and Miko if this happened, with smaller amount on Black Apalachi as still believes he won’t want the good ground hes likely to meet at Aintree.
Ells
1
#643
February 22nd, 2009 18:58
indeede, lough. the old timers are on the up ey!
didn’t you have a breathing op like Cornish?
well silver birch anyway! I think of others like L’Ami and Mon Mome as old because they started young in this race, are there more 7/8 year olds in recent years? are they more fairly treated in the weights when they comeback these days? are they something to consider with there chances now at the ‘right’ age? there not exactly late developers like Black Apalachi and Rambo!?
well done with your win today lough ‘so tough’
#644
February 22nd, 2009 19:50
Stats man- Himalayan trail scraped home in 11th
and as a result has taken a walk on Betfair.
#645
February 22nd, 2009 20:21
Ameneded short list again!
My short list now reads:
“Five against the field”.
1. Rambling Minster – 3×24f wins inc 1×28f
1. Butler’s Cabin – Won Irish Nat
3. Garde Champetre – 3×24f wins inc 1×28f
3. Kilbeggan Blade – 3×24f wins inc 1×28f
5. Parsons Legacy – 3rd Scots Nat/5th Hennessy (I’am still waiting on this one. Will he run?, price etc)
State Of Play – watching
I think the winners is in there somewhere (the other five were Hear The Echo, Black Apalachi, Chelsea Harbour, Southern Vic and Himalayan Trail all not looking good now, too much weight etc).
If Butlers Cabin comes 1/2 or 3rd in a Chase at 25f or more his trends profile will be slightly better than Rambo other than being so called “French bred” (never ran in France in its life)!
Wacky if it wins I’am off to Sydney you can have Southampton (by the sea)!!
#646
February 22nd, 2009 20:24
I’d also suggest all those who say Garde’s x-country form doesn’t hold up. take a look at Silver Birch’s form in these, the maximun he carried was 11-10 and was well beaten,he then carried 11-4 and was 2nd,Garde has been carrying over 12 and winning -and well.
#647
February 22nd, 2009 20:25
I went out for a days pointing and glad i did to avoid even more weekend misery being heaped on via himalayan trails effort today – another one to scratch off the list..
its geting like that Gladiators program on the tv .. doom , doom, doom , another one bites the dust …
cant ever remember a year when so many leading protagonists and talking horses have fluffed their lines ….
REVISED TOP 5 – 2ND UPDATE THIS WEEKEND!!
1= RAMBLING MINSTER
1 = STATE OF PLAY
3 = GARDE CHAMPETRE
4 = KNOWHERE
5 = MIKO DE BEAUCHENE
#648
February 22nd, 2009 20:41
For all those RAMBLING MINSTER fans, 25-1 still available at seangraham.com FILL YOUR BOOTS
#649
February 22nd, 2009 20:57
Thats a decent shout ALANHAM.nice one looks like i’m gona have to opon up another account !
#650
February 22nd, 2009 20:58
open even pardon the french !
#651
February 22nd, 2009 21:12
Totally agree with Birch : so many dropping away but RM remains at 20 to 25 – 1 – usually when the big hopes dwindle, the others get shortened by the bookies – just had another £30 plus a £30 free bet at the bank of RM – try Centrebet through bookiesindex.com for the freebie.
#652
February 22nd, 2009 22:12
I don’t what anyone can read into Silver Birch’s display today… It doesn’t look encouraging. Next stop Aintree?
http://www.p2p.ie/results.asp?key_m=6678
#653
February 22nd, 2009 22:19
Yet some more shattered dreams today !!
1 ARC EN CIEL (GER) 9yo Fogarty, M P 12st 6/4-2/1
B G DAUN (GER) – AMARNA (GER) Owned by Kevin Murphy Trained by C.A. Murphy
2 nk LASQUINI DU MOULIN (FR) 10yo Hagan, D J 12st 12-14/1
GR G SAINT PREUIL (FR) – API (FR) Owned by Finnegan, Ms. A. & Hagan, J. Trained by John Hagan
3 2L DUSTY DOOLAN (IRE) 11yo Byrne, S C 12st 2-3/1
BR G ARCTIC LORD – ROBERTO MOSS Owned by Maria Byrne Trained by Denis Paul Murphy
PU SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12yo McGonagle, S 12st
#654
February 22nd, 2009 22:26
Agree Silver B its a year like no other or is it? fancied horses are falling away week after week, luckily they’re not the ones I have picked out, well it wasn’t luck I suppose I don’t like to back dodgey jumpers or ‘lightweights’
Many fancied here were promising but not good enough maybe, a bit of wishful thinking with some. I can’t come round to BC either because of no form and Tony factor I just can’t!!! ok!
Got plenty of others with FR after their name still in my periphery vision!
Did you say Silver Birch pull up today!!! nnnnoooo.
Is he ok? not like poor Endless Power.
#655
February 22nd, 2009 22:27
Is that Silver Birch’s effort today?
#656
February 22nd, 2009 22:29
Good work on the Silver birch result guys…….. i would have missed that.
So another red line……i have used my red pen so much this past week the ink has run dry
#657
February 22nd, 2009 22:34
yes sb pulled up whilst “odds on” in a ptp in ireland 2day …. lets just hope the old boys ok and not anything serious amiss – as you say puzzled, another horse we need to draw a line under ….
#658
February 22nd, 2009 22:45
Come on guys and girls there are some good runners out there that all meet the trends and have not let us down yet and comply with Stephen’s GN trends and my Pre-Chritmas winners profile. Fill your boots while you can.
Depressed – no way, bring it on!!!!!!
1. Rambling Minster – 3×24f wins inc 1×28f
1. Butler’s Cabin – Won Irish Nat
3. Garde Champetre – 3×24f wins inc 1×28f
3. Kilbeggan Blade – 3×24f wins inc 1×28f
5. Parsons Legacy – 3rd Scots Nat/5th Hennessy (I’am still waiting on this one. Will he run?, price etc)
State Of Play – watching and will bet if under 11.00 on GN day.
Silver Birch never met the trends did he? – winners dont come back to win again unless there Red Rum (the one and only saint of the GN). Why clutch at such poor straws when you can have the whole harvest!!
#659
February 22nd, 2009 22:52
Ok so another one bites the dust.Get on Garde Champetre now at 40s-if you can get it-because he’s looking the main threat to Rambling Minster and all this talk about Cheltenham taking it out of him is kak.He’ll be on 2 stone less at Aintree and he’s improved no end and only had about a month between all his recent races.check out Silver Birch’s profile and Garde is a better horse.Soft ground is the key.What price was Silver Birch? will Garde be the same?.Doubt it!
#660
February 22nd, 2009 23:08
So many chances are still up in the air at the moment. It is a very tricky year to work out. But I am glad Rambo is there looking good
I am excited about Tuesday for the next forfeit stage to see who drops out and how much closer some are to getting a run.
#661
February 23rd, 2009 00:29
A comment I would like to make on the chances of Cornish Sett and Character Building. I don’t think it matters that they were both beaten a long way in the Red Square at Haydock. In general such horses are being trained to peak in April, not February. As an example I would point to the 2003 Red Square as an example. On the basis of his win at Haydock, Shotgun Willy went off 7/1 favourite but was PU. Two horses that finished well-beaten at Haydock ran blinders in the National – Amberleigh House was 3rd at Aintree having been beaten 64 lengths into 15th, while Supreme Glory was 2nd in the GN having run well for a long way at Hayd before weakening into 7th.
#662
February 23rd, 2009 09:58
“I am excited about Tuesday for the next forfeit stage to see who drops out and how much closer some are to getting a run.”
I had a look at how many dropped out at this stage last year and it was 25:
BEEF OR SALMON, TURPIN GREEN, FORGET THE PAST, FOREMAN, THISTHATANDTOTHER, DREAM ALLIANCE, DOM D’ORGEVAL, ROMAN ARK, SIR REMBRANDT, NINE DE SIVOLA, CHARACTER BUILDING, BARON WINDRUSH, NIRVANA DU BOURG, TOM SAYERS, LAMPION DU BOST, MAJADAL, BOTHAR NA, OODACHEE, ST MATTHEW, OUR ARMAGEDDON, PASS ME BY, SEA DIVA, SIXO, HEAR THE ECHO, GARDASEE.
Well over half of those withdrawals were way down the handicap and wouldn’t have got a run anyway. The overall picture might not change that much tomorrow if only a couple of horses from the top 40 are pulled out.
#663
February 23rd, 2009 11:36
The 25s for Minster at Sean Graham has gone.20s now!
#664
February 23rd, 2009 11:40
Texas what do you make of Sean Graham’s? Bit wary of off of the main bookies. Don’t see him quoted on oddschecker or bestbetting. Looked on site and didn’t see info on security systems re when placing a bet with your card like Verfied or is it SSL etc
#665
February 23rd, 2009 13:01
I never placed a bet with them but they have a shop in a town near me,i was planning on going in there and placing a bet but not worth the bother now i can get 20s elsewhere.i’m going open an account elsewhere and get a free £50 matched and put it on Minster.Even if you never use the site again or prefer using Betfair its worth the hassle!
#666
February 23rd, 2009 13:03
J Rambo mentioned the site earlier Showlad,it’s worth a look !
#667
February 23rd, 2009 14:31
I am pleased I resisted the temptation on Silver Birch, and even more pleased Himalayan Trail was laid some weeks ago!
Roll on April…
#668
February 23rd, 2009 14:52
your point is steady eddy.why do people use this string to brag what they have supposely done and backed and avoided etc. etc.same people time after time.are we really interested in your cuckoo world.there are people on this site putting alot of hard work in and not crowing or blowing there own trumpets.be constructive but for christ sake stop the crap.
#669
February 23rd, 2009 14:59
Is anybody seriously able to put up a viable alternative to the Mingin Blister? Out of the whole field I’m ashamed to say I reckon Le French Garde Champetre is the only opposition. Comments or advise would be welcome as I need to back something other than Mingin (now that Him T bombed out).
#670
February 23rd, 2009 15:27
Had another look at a couple:
Mon Mome
This horse is in better form than last season but unfortunately won that race at Cheltenham beating Star De Mohaison well before the weights out so running off a 7lb higher mark in the National this year than when a well beaten 10th last year – not for me
Cornish Sett
When was the wind operation – some people say before last year’s National – anyone got a link to anything concrete on this?
Anyway this one is also in better form than last season but will run from 4lb higher than when a well beaten 12th last year. Stayed on in Welsh National but conviningly beaten by Notre Pere and was never put in contention to win. Disappointed (along with Mon Mome) when comfortably beaten by Rambling Minster – not for me
Ones that have run since the weights out and done well:
Horse: Latest RPR-GN rating
Notre Pere: +12
Rambling Minster: +12
Black Apalachi: +11
Miko De Beauchene: +7
Big Fella Thanks: +7
#671
February 23rd, 2009 15:42
Found this quote from Nicholls re Cornish Sett
“He was struggling with his breathing last season, ” Nicholls said. “I gave him an operation before the National [in which he finish 12th] and maybe that has just helped him a bit. Ruby thought he might have picked the wrong one, but I am pleased for Nick as he has done a lot of work on him.”
#672
February 23rd, 2009 15:53
What do we all think of Miko de B’s chances?
Carrying 10st 10 presently, likes a bit of cut in the ground which he will get at Aintree and seems to have bags of stamina shown in win in the Welsh National.
He is receiving a 3lbs weight pull from Rambo since his recent defeat. He only finished 4 lengths back. Surely on this line of form we should be discussing him at least
Why is this one not being mentioned, 40/1 seems huge. Oh please dont tell me its because he’s french bred!! It looks like he will run in the Gold Cup, but i dont think this counts him out
#673
February 23rd, 2009 16:15
Russell,
“likes a bit of cut in the ground which he will get at Aintree”
Why will he get cut in the ground at Aintree? Most of the recent Nationals have been run on good or good/soft ground and he wants it much deeper than that.
#674
February 23rd, 2009 16:23
Miko De Beauchene got a really good chance if weights stay the same and he negotiates the first four or five fences safely
Can see him running on in Gold Cup
But he has unseated twice in last three runs – on the plus side might make him fresher horse than most going to Aintree
Interesting runner but I would like to see how well he does in Gold Cup first
#675
February 23rd, 2009 16:25
…but also think Rambo was value for more than the weight turnaround from Haydock
#676
February 23rd, 2009 16:35
maybe its the recent unseatings Russell, PU a few times too. He looks most likey to run possibly if he unseats at cheltenham! If Miko gets round he is a threat with a big weight for sure, had an eye on him, if weights go up less 5lb hard to resist, him and a few others who are weight carrying machines!!! its a battle of heavyweights and featherweights in my mind, if weights go up alot will be easier to pick my last contender.
hee hee. good form with snoopy, haa haa. 2nd round aintree last time out, featherweight, Papillon related any thoughts?
Brooklyn Brownie has also had a few under the radar mentions, noted originally here by Crisp I think, he has the double same letter name that has been lucky recently
#677
February 23rd, 2009 17:51
Systems man – ur outsider has finally popped his head above the parapet ..!
Darkness is also set to reappear on Saturday but it is more likely at Newbury in the Totescoop6 Veterans’ Handicap Chase than at Doncaster.
The 10-year-old has had a wind operation since being pulled up in the Coral Welsh National.
“He’ll go to Newbury, probably. He’s had a wind operation so we’ll see how he gets on,” said trainer Charlie Egerton.
#678
February 23rd, 2009 18:23
minty Says:
February 23rd, 2009 at 2:52 pm
your point is steady eddy.why do people use this string to brag what they have supposely done and backed and avoided etc. etc.same people time after time.are we really interested in your cuckoo world.there are people on this site putting alot of hard work in and not crowing or blowing there own trumpets.be constructive but for christ sake stop the crap.
It was more of a light hearted comment by way of my summary of the weekends action! Ive obviously touched a nerve though, so dont bother reading anything I write in future.
#679
February 23rd, 2009 18:43
my fear with those near the 11st barrier at the moment is that the weigts are likely to ris, probably by the 5lbs – is this happened as already said, BA,Miko and co would be up against it carrying more than 11 – Think the new barrier would then be set at State of Play. Personally, I’m not one for backing a horse that runs in the Gold Cup in the same year. Nice to see Ladbrokes still holding the 20s on Rambling.
#680
February 23rd, 2009 18:51
Hi all.
Really glad to hear that Darkness is re-appearing soon. Only had a small bet at the moment but I want more horses to spread out my list againt the field lol. At the moment only comprises confidently of Rambo. Really hope he runs well.
With regards to Miko Russell I have mentioned him quite a lot since his last impressive run.I would say that he’s quite long because he’s likely to have a lot of weight and because there is no gaurantee whatsoever that he will run. The Alners have expressed their main concern at the moment is Gold Cuop. However if weights don’t rise and he does run he is without doubt my number 2. Ran extremely well last time under top weight.
Ells
1
#681
February 23rd, 2009 19:02
Re Darkness – i jettisoned him off my list at xmas time after a poor run in the welsh national – but if you go back and look at his run at haydock beforehand thats pretty hot form…
running with 11-12 – trying to give possol ( 2nd in racing post chase on sat ) 8lbs and mon mome 9lbs …
and finised in front of rambling minster giving it 4lbs …. hmmmm…
Carrying 10-1 in the nat
i can see it now – a tenner double on darkness to win the nat and the uk to win the eurovision song contest .. easy money or what
andi lloyd webbers gonna be the man the year i reckon.. 
:-)
#682
February 23rd, 2009 19:19
“SILVER BIRCH Says:
February 23rd, 2009 at 5:51 pm
Systems man – ur outsider has finally popped his head above the parapet ..!”
Reply:
Thanks Silver. I have a 1/3 normal bet on him already as a safety bet as he really is the Dark horse in the field. His 3rd this season was over 24f not the 25f or more which would look much better (Newbury in the Totescoop6 Veterans’ Handicap Chase – do you know the distance of the race or the possible one at Doncaster?
If he wins watch his price drop, drop drop! (fits my pre-christmas winners trends but he’s not in Stephens excellent GN winners profile)- might top up a bit more before Saturday but got my fingers burt last weekend when topped up a little more on Silver Birch (strange his price is holding and even droppng in places after going out at first).
#683
February 23rd, 2009 19:19
STEADY,it was note to do with a summary of the w/e just yet another look at me rant. you and wacko most arrogant posters,dont get it off the lads who do the real work systems,showlad,crisp,s.birch,stephen,russell
,the stayer etc.it is meant as constructive observations that get peoples backs up,not just me either but if you cant stand the heat then you know the rast.
#684
February 23rd, 2009 19:33
Howdi Systems man – i think both those races on sat are over 26 furlongs – so that would be useful to help his stats rating . dont want to get my hopes up too high after the weekend !.. enjoying all the craic on here though .. fab stuff…
#685
February 23rd, 2009 19:35
While we are waiting for the new declarations lest take a few minutes to consider the TS and RPR reports in the Racing Post on weights day (only based on assessment up to weights day ofcourse).
TS Best (* + a good GN winning trends runner)
Exotic Dancer 183
Garde Champetre 182*
My Will 182
Oedipe 182
Simon 182
Snowy Morning 181
Battlecry 180
Silverburn 180
State of Play 180*
.
.
Darkness 178*
RPR
Oedipe 179
Always Waining 177
Imperial Commander174
Iron Man 174
Coply of Die 173
Cornish Set 171
Garde Champetre 171
.
.
Brooklyn Brownie* 168
.
.
Southern Vic* 162
CONCLUSION:
1.Ignore Garde Champetre at your peril! (3rd on my short list- fits my pre-christmas winners profile and Stephens GN winners profile)
2.keep an eye on Darkness (especely this weekend)
3. Keep watching Stae of Play and Brooklyn Brownie
Note:
These RPR and TS lists from my memory and back copies of the RP have not been too reliable with regard to the GN so be cautious.
#686
February 23rd, 2009 19:59
If GN was tomorrow, Mon Mome, L’Ami, Cornish Sett, Rambling Minster fit current trends plus winners profile and C1 chase top 3. MM and CS had poor run in last race, if they don’t run again, but 3/23 National winners fell/pulled up in their last race so..
In a Jimmy Saville style they are top of the National pops, pop punters.
The big climbers are Butlers Cabin needs top 4 chase place 40/40, top 3 chase place 39/40, Garde Champetre and Kilbeggan Blade need C1 top 3 chase place 23/23.
State Of Play and Parsons Legacy need another prep, 2-8 weeks last prep 36/36, 2-7 weeks 35/36.(this stat probably goes back even longer)
#687
February 23rd, 2009 20:14
er, we seem to have another eastender here! Minty, what are you going on about?! you’ve lost it mate… enders accent
Just been looking back over this thread, very daunting playin catch up, so missed alot, seen some recent posts mentioning Brooklyn Brownie from Silver, systems , crisp and Lough ‘the new guy’.. said in a brooklyn accent. Certainly got some respected interest! whens he running?
So Crisp, you aren’t writing off MM and L’Ami either? you now cause of running and finshing in it before. Have to say there frenchness is more off putting!!
#688
February 23rd, 2009 20:29
..you Know because of running… it should read,.. ‘hey we’se all doin accents now’
Just looked on other thread seems to be a difference of opinion on SVs run, confused conclusions etc. I didn’t see it but I think the one about when it got serious his jumping went to pot sounds reasonable, but I am in the dark really on this one, is that the general conclusion?
#689
February 23rd, 2009 21:42
Hi Kj – it was my good self that made the comment about his jumping going to pot… maybe thats a tad harsh as he only made one mistake but boy oh boy was it a big one .. im astonished however to see that through yesterday and even more so today he still being hammered on bf – as low as 23s when i last looked . somebody somewhere is having a right old go on this one … as i said would love to be proved wrong but i have my doubts
#690
February 23rd, 2009 21:48
I’ve watched the race twice now on At The Races site kj. The point with Southern Vic is that regardless of whether he was running well or not, he hit a fence and finished poorly. Therefore his form still looks terrible for this season and as Crisp repeated just 2 posts above – 39 of last 40 winners have been top 3 in a chase in their winning season. Only Papillon I believe didn’t and even he at least top 3′d in a hurdles race.
Glad to see somebody else sees L’ami is well up there at the moment. He’s always there on everybody’s list if you look but then is just dropped off at the end for no reasl reason, French? Placed Before?. Difference between him and Mon Mome is that.. if they have already placed quite a distance away in the National, for me, something major has to have changed for them to have a chance another time round. Mon Mome hasn’t really changed (not exactly in outstanding form) and if weights go up 5lb he will have same weight as last year. Whereas last time L’ami placed he was only 8 yrs old and carrying 11-8. This year even with the rise he will have at least a stone less than that and be the ideal age of 10. Furthermore he is now with different trainer, is in cracking form and looks to be enjoying himself again. Was only 1 and half lengths behind Garde Champetre back in Dec albeit with weights reversed but has come on from that and is now favourite for x-country race at Cheltenham. If he beats Garde and Butlers Cabin in that, which bookies think he will, can you imagine his price for GN? Like I say my main worry is that Bolger has come out and said Cheltenham is the main priority. But if he runs top 2 there I can’t imagine them not running him in GN at peak age with that weight.
Reasonable bet now and bigger once I know he’s running.
Anybody know which of the Cheltenham races Butler’s Cabin is most likely to run in? He’s entered for 3 at the moment.
Cheers
Ells
1
#691
February 23rd, 2009 21:48
For those reveillez fans , hes been entered in a handicap chase at newbury on sat – will be interesting to see how he gets on if he turns up – definitely an outsider but worth a few fun quid at some fancy prices…
#692
February 23rd, 2009 22:06
Have reservations about Darkness and Brooklyn Brownie
Darkness
Very encouraging run back from long spell off with injury then very disappointing in Welsh National now going to have wind operation
Also a very quirky customer
Damsire is Strong Gale so is a doubtful stayer on pedigree (no placed horse has ever had Strong Gale in its breeding)
But is well handicapped if everything goes right
Too many question marks for me
Brooklyn Brownie
Run in 19 chases but never over more than 25f (strange for a horse that would appear to have good staying pedigree with Lafontaine as damsire – Papillon’s dad)
Read on Betfair that no Presenting horse has won over 4m or more – more research required on this one but interesting if true
Quote from RP is a bit of a worry too – “Although he’d never won before over three miles, I think we have maybe been riding him too prominently, and I told Phil to switch him off today and not to allow him to do much too soon” – he was held up for the trip – again doesn’t suggest that connections would be confident of him staying 4m 4f
#693
February 23rd, 2009 22:44
Just a little stat to throw with all the others in the melting pot………
I took all nationals from 2001-2008 and looked at the racecard order of the 3 placed horses.
2001 10-26-13
2002 21-4-16
2003 18-31-20
2004 22-27-33
2005 11-7-39
2006 26-2-16
2007 30-36-24
2008 33-27-16
In 8 years those in single figures from 1(top weight) to 9 only managed to fill 3 of the placings 3/24….so this goes as proof i guess that those carrying big weights hardly get placed let alone win the race.
If we disregard the 2001 national (Red Maurader) because of the state of the ground leaving only 4 finishers (i don’t think we can get a true reading with this race) and use the other 7 Nationals the winner has been somewhere in between 11 and 33 so come race day the horses that meet the stats in between say 10 and 34(to allow for a slight error should be the ones that we should be looking at)
Those horses from 35-40(low weights) i guess have as much chance as those between 10 and 34 but over the last 8 years and 24 possible placings they have only filled “2″ places(2/24) and have a worse record than those in single figures.
#694
February 23rd, 2009 23:12
Are the bookies keeping Rambling Minster at bay in the betting (20/1) because they are not convinced he will get in?
There are a lot of other horses far from guaranteed a place in the line-up, such as Darkness, Southern Vic, Garde Champetre, Hot Weld, Kilbeggan Blade, Brooklyn Brownie, Character Building and Himalayan Trail.
Some will get in for sure. For instance, I think Rambo will be OK. But some of the others could be stuffed you know.
In an earlier post, The Stayer suggested the picture may not be much clearer after tomorrow’s forfeit stage. I agree. Most withdrawals will be either obvious ones from the top of the handicap or no-hopers from the bottom half.
Some of the horses listed above could still be a dozen or so places away from the top 40.
On a separate note – re: Puzzled and race card numbers – in the 1980s and 1990s you didn’t need to look outside beyond numbers 1 to 15 to find the winner. Things have certainly become stretched in the handicap in the last decade or so.
#695
February 23rd, 2009 23:22
Don’t know why Rambo is still 20/1 but two reasons why Butler’s Cabin is 12 or 14/1 having shown nothing for the best part of 2 years apart from going well 2/3 way round Aintree last year – JP McManus & AP McCoy – whereas Rambo is not with a big stable perhaps?
#696
February 23rd, 2009 23:36
Can I please stress that, if the only reason any of you are refraining from backing Mon Mome is because it finished 10th last year, you should maybe reconsider.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not backing Mon Mome as I don’t think it will win – I see it as being pretty one paced. However, I did back it last year and it was creeping into contention nicely until being badly hampered by Butler’s Cabin’s fall. It lost all rhythm after that and never got back into it.
Just to through that in there. As I say, I don’t think it will win but if any of you are keen e/w punters then you could do worse. Maybe smallish stakes though.
Like many posters here, I’m struggling to find an alternative to Rambling Minster! The ones which are bugging me are My Will (despite being french bred & only having one run) and State of Play
#697
February 24th, 2009 00:28
A lot of people have asked me for my main reasoning behind picking Grand National horses, and to be honest I go with my gut feeling above anything else
I have made some mistakes, namely I was sure Strong Resolve was going to win a few years back and he never got into it, I was also big on Bothar Na in 2007. Still i’d like to think my reasoning is profitable
2008 = C or D, Snowy Morning & Black Apalachi
2007 = Mckelvey & bothar na
2006 = NumbersixVV
2005 = Strong Resolve ~ had a saver on Hedgehunter tho
2004 = Amberleigh and Clan (what a result!)
This is not to blow my own trumpet, as many of you guys on this site I bet have picked the winner and placed horses many times, but to give some credibility to my advice!!
If any irregular punters follow this blog then my advice is to never ignore the weight issues. The ground will be watered and so good to soft is as fast as it gets. Also, the prelims to the race seem to get lengthier each year, i.e. the horses have to mill around for longer before the start,disadv. carrying a heavier load. Over 11st is a huge burden when you have horses that have been protecting their marks all year hurdling down at 10st
Your looking for a horse that jumps well (no. of career falls important), has run on well over longer distances (combination of softer ground and more weight would make this even more important) and seems to have beaten the handicapper by recent form.
I can’t see past Rambling Minster and Garde Champetre at the moment despite looking at every potential entrant. Miko de B is a good price, but there are many slight worries that put me off backing him. Whatever way you look at it, it is very hard to ignore a horse that stays and has a low racing weight. This is concrete and doubts concerning either of the 2 factors above should make you put a red line through it.
Hope this helps people as my approach is not shrouded in elimination of horses by statistics per say, just using common sense
Cheers,
Russ
#698
February 24th, 2009 08:24
J Rambo reckons weights will rise 5lbs. I’m worried that Cloudy Lane will end up top weight on the day which presumably means weights will have gone up 8lbs. Is this right?
Great work by all you stat fans. I’m keen on State of Play so I was interested to see the stat on the record of horses not having a prep run. Not sure how this works with SOP as everyone seems united that he needs to go to the race as fresh as possible.
#699
February 24th, 2009 10:42
Some more information of winners since 1990:
Hores Sire Stone Lbs OR (in GN) Longest trip win (f)
Mr Frisk Bivouac 10 6 ?? 29
Seagram Balak 10 6 148 32
Party Politics Politico 10 7 153 26
Miinnehoma Kambalda 10 8 153 26
Royal Athlete Roselier 10 6 155 28
Rough Quest Crash Course 10 7 152 25
Lord Gyllene (NZ) Ring The Bell 10 0 149 34
Earth Summit Celtic Cone 10 5 147 33
Bobbyjo Bustineto 10 0 142 29
Papillon Lafontaine 10 12 139 25
Red Marauder Gunner B 10 11 140 24
Bindaree Roselier 10 4 136 25
Monty’s Pass Montelimar 10 7 139 24
Amberleigh House Buckskin 10 10 139 27
Hedgehunter Montelimar 11 1 144 28
Numbersixvalverde Broken Hearted 10 8 138 29
Silver Birch Clearly Bust 10 6 144 30
Comply Or Die Old Vic 10 9 139 33
The best ‘stat’ from here is clearly weight carried – only Hedgehunter has carried more than 11 stone – whereas OR ranges between 136 and 155
#700
February 24th, 2009 10:57
Like all stats picking, breeding is not an exact science but the following horses 11’1 or under have a GN-winning sire:
Silver Birch Clearly Bust
Chelsea Harbour Old Vic
Comply Or Die Old Vic
Black Apalachi Old Vic
One Cool Cookie Old Vic
It is often thought that stamina comes from the dam side and these have a GN-winning influence on the dam side, again 11’1 or under:
Afistfullofdollars Buckskin
Roll Along Montelimar
One Cool Cookie Montelimar
Abbeybraney Roselier
Simon Buckskin
Rambling Minster Buckskin
Brooklyn Brownie Lafontaine
Character Building Roselier
I have excluded anything with Strong Gale in its pedigree
Doesn’t mean the winner is there though
#701
February 24th, 2009 11:03
Missed Ollie Magern and Battlecry who both have Gala Performance on dam side (West Tip’s dad)
#702
February 24th, 2009 11:28
Anyone know what time the latest list of entries is announced?
#703
February 24th, 2009 11:30
My thoughts exactly Stephen. Can’t see list posted anywhere…
#704
February 24th, 2009 11:43
Does anyone know of racing plans for Kilbeggan Blade? As far as I can see at present he doesn’t have any entries before Aintree, which would obviously be a major concern!
#705
February 24th, 2009 11:51
Betfair market suspends at 12pm – don’t know when announcement is though
Tom George KB’s trainer on weights day
“That sounds about ideal to me. If a few at the top don’t run it would put him on about 10st 4lb and that is just about right. he’s an improved horse and the national has been the plan for a long time.
He’ll have one more run over hurdles and then it will be Aintree. We just need to keep our fingers crossed that he gets in.”
Can’t seem to shake this horse off – want to put a line through it but keeps coming out well on trends.
#706
February 24th, 2009 13:44
Can’t find the withdrawal info online anywhere – no doubt you guys will inform when able to be viewed
#707
February 24th, 2009 13:53
Last year’s John Smith’s Grand National runner-up King Johns Castle may have his first run since Aintree at Navan this weekend.
Arthur Moore’s grey 10-year-old was initially ruled out for the campaign with a tendon injury but he made a quicker than expected recovery and a return to Merseyside is now back on the agenda.
He holds an entry in the Athboy Hurdle and ground conditions will dictate whether or not he lines up.
“Obviously we’re pleased he came back to himself quicker than expected and everything seems fine with him,” said Moore.
“He’s quite forward but the main objective is just to get a run into him and that will either be this weekend or the following weekend.
“I wouldn’t want to run him on heavy ground and the conditions will probably be the deciding factor as to whether he runs this weekend or the following weekend.”
#708
February 24th, 2009 13:59
good work Pablo on the ancestoral front!
my unconcious said he’d win could have meant this year!? been watching him since back then and although it was easy to dismiss his chances last year, he withdraw after a bad prep run I think, he is much improved ‘plough horse’ and if it is a slog he could win, other than that I keep thinkin I have to rule him out with a low TS, potential for a bad jump!! smallness, PU in class 1s, too many black marks!?
I can’t shake off KB completely either as he came up when trying to divine for the winner last year!!
#709
February 24th, 2009 14:41
What are they waiting for? Publish the list lol
#710
February 24th, 2009 14:54
If its anything like last year, it won’t be announced until tomorrow.
Today is the deadline for them to be forfeited, but it will be announced tomorrow. Not sure if this is correct, but think I remember something along those lines from 2008.
#711
February 24th, 2009 15:05
Well that’s even more annoying.
I was excited for it being today
#712
February 24th, 2009 15:24
Gutted
#713
February 24th, 2009 15:25
Market movers
Hills 14-1 about BFT
Southern Vic 20/1 in three or four places on oddschecker
#714
February 24th, 2009 15:37
As regards Mike de B – get the red pen through him – yes because he’s a French Bred! And Butlers, Garde Champetre and My Will etc.!
At the risk of p*ssing off Minty, Russell and others (no offence taken last week at all Minty – it is all about opinions).
Here are the French Breds who ran in JUST the last four Grand Nationals.
2008
Nadover (7th and beaten a distance), Mon Mome (10th), Milan Deux Mille (14th). Pulled Up – Vodka Bleu. Fell – Turko, Madison du Berlais, Butlers Cabin, Turko, L’Ami, No Full, Kelami and Iron Man.
2007
Liberthine (5th, beaten 17+ lengths), Puntal 8th (beaten a distance), L’Ami (10th), Clan Royal (11th), Kelami (13th), Pulled Up – Celtic Sun, Sonevafushi Fell – Royal Auclair, Le Duc – Refused – Monkerhostin.
2006
Clan Royal (3rd – beaten 7 1/4 lengths), Puntal (6th beaten a distance). Pulled Up – Le Roi Miguel, Iznogood, Iris Royal. Fell – Royal Auclair, Innox, Juvigneur, Haut de Gamme, First Gold, Le Duc, Heros Collonges.
2005
Royal Auclair (2nd – beaten 14 lengths), Innox (7th and beaten a distance), Heros Collonges (8th), Izznogood (12th), Joly Bey (14th), L’Aventure (15th). Pulled up Le Coudray, Fondmort, Astonville, Jakari. Fell – Foly Pleasant, Double Honour, Marcus du Belais. Carried out – Clan Royal.
I think you would all agree – lots of runners, far from all duffers or outsiders and if I went back to 2004, 2003 and on – you’d find the same pattern. Some will say that one year this statistic will be blown away – but you could say the same for 7 year old winners, novice winners, winners who haven’t won over 3 miles. You have to take an opinion on key statistics in trying to find the winner and ignoring French Breds in WIN bets is close to the top of my list. Will this and all other trends last forever – probably not! But I’m sticking with it until it needs re-assessed.
#715
February 24th, 2009 18:06
Of all of the trends the french bred 1 may be the strongest. However when approaching these trends we always go in with ‘common sense’ goggles on. All the trends I’m using and most other people are using have some evidence as to why they are important for a National winning horse. The 2 that seemed to have been found this year (correct me if i’m wrong) – ‘top 3 in a chase in winning year’ and ‘top 5 hennessey etc’ both make sense. They indicate that a horse who is going to win the National must have had some form that season and has enough class to finish well in a top stamina race in the past.
Now I don’t follow these trends stringently, if a horse I like came 4th by half a length from 1st then am I going to put a line through them? – No – they lost a chase by half a length – that’s good form. Similarly if a horse has won a Midlands National but not come top 5 in Hennessy etc am I going to throw em out? – No.
My problem with the french bred stat is I don’t think it has much relevance anymore and therefore I don’t employ it. I don’t know how many french horses were running in the earlier Nationals but doubt it was as many as there are now, so makes the dates it goes back to a little less important. As far as I’m aware people’s main reason for saying they don’t win the National is because they aren’t bred for stamina. But this just clearly isn’t the case anymore, the likes of GC clearly has stamina in abundance. Butler’s Cabin won the Irish National! Most of these horses hardly spend anytime in France anymore and things just aren’t the same as they were. Therefore if there is no argument to back up the stat anymore then I’m not going to employ it.
Don’t get me wrong I wish most of my short list wasn’t French – because of the trend. But am I going to cancel them off for a lesser fitting horse because of this? No.
God I can’t win for French horse to win the National again lol.
Ells
1
#716
February 24th, 2009 18:10
For me now its the equivalent of saying “O well no horse in orange colours has won in ? years”, or “no horse beginning with j has won since ?” and then employing them. A trend is only useful is we can back it up with a reason why it is a trend and not just through coincidence.
If there is no reason for French horses not winning anymore then we should not employ it.
Ells
1
#717
February 24th, 2009 18:17
Well you keep putting your win money on those Franch Breds Lough Derg and keep those bookies living in fine style! There have been plenty of French breds running in the last 20 Nationals. I’d say there is an argument that your logic is flawed on this one – it is not all about form. Certainly not if you are taking any heed of the stats on novices, ages of winners etc. You should read Paul Jones book on Grand National trends (indeed you may have already) and you will see that there is well defined logic to the anti-French Bred view. And it is not a small minded Brits and Irish only view! It would take me too long to repeat it here but I was fascinated with it when I read it, followed the advice for a bit and until there is National winner with (FR) after its name will not be backing a French bred runner. Yes, French Breds have stamina (BC has won over 4 miles) – but let’s see one win over 4m 4f! But as I said before, we all pay our money and take our choice I guess.
#718
February 24th, 2009 18:19
You are getting rather silly now Loogh Derg! See you back on this Board on the morning of Sunday 5th April!
#719
February 24th, 2009 19:03
Look, my point is this: I agree that in the past there were strong reasons for striking off French horses. I just don’t believe those points are relevant anymore and therefore unless someone can give me a solid explanation to back up why a french breds can’t win the National then I won’t be crossing them off my shortlist. Not saying a french horse will win this year, just don’t think we should be dismissing horses simply because they have FR after their names anymore.
Ells
1
#720
February 24th, 2009 19:13
Whitearab Says:
February 24th, 2009 at 6:17 pm
Well you keep putting your win money on those Franch Breds Lough Derg and keep those bookies living in fine style!
Thanks I will betting on Royal Auclair and even more so Clan Royal have been great successes for me and kept me in fine style, not so good for the bookies though, not all of us are mugs who back win only in a 40 runner handicap.
#721
February 24th, 2009 19:17
Regards the discussion over a ‘safe’ way to apply the trends, be it FR bred, age, weight, novice etc – all of these trends are bound to be the subject of change over time; thats how trends are formed after all.
The best way to ‘protect’ yourself against this change is twofold;
i) Build in a level of tolerance to the trends you use to allow for minor variances.
ii) Take a balanced view of the runners and how they measure up against a number of key trends rather than ruling them out based on one trend in isolation.
It may well be that a FR bred also doesn’t have form over 27f+ furlongs etc, a novice doesn’t meet the chase runs / wins statistic, or a horse wiha low OR / RPR has missed out on a chase win of a certain class or value.
Where such horses fall short across a number of trends then it is relatively safe to rule them out, where they fail on just 1 such as the FR against their name (which I actually don’t use myself) I would consider it very dangerous to apply this in isolation.
I have tried to take this into account in my post of 13 Feb, which even brings Exotic Dancer into play as he meets almost all trends except the weight to be carried.
I’m not saying ED will win off top weight – just that it is only one measure that rules him out!
#722
February 24th, 2009 20:29
Precisely my point. If the weights were to stay the same then someone like Miko would be perfect trend fitter. Other than the fact hes french bred. You have to allow some give, every horse every year isnt gonna fit every trend. Trying to find the best fits or close things.
Ells
1
#723
February 24th, 2009 21:49
I hate to burst your bubble Whitearab but the recent record of french bred is not exactly bad
2005 = Royal Auclair (2nd) to the Hedge
2006 = Clan Royal = 3rd
2007 = Liberthine 5th
AND 2004 = CLAN ROYAL (2nd) but he would have won if not for the most stupid piece of riding by Liam. Driving Clan Royal off towards the chair before realizing he had to come back to the elbow, lost his without miles from home…led to him being narrowly beaten by Amberleigh House
If Clan Royal wins this (a very small if), your “no french bred will ever win” theme, goes out of the window! This trend is completely useless, ther is no reason to back it up anymore, not all french bred are bred without stamina, such GC, Butlers Cabin etc lol
or perhaps people think that if Clan Royal had a whip and ran straight after the last, then Amberleigh House would have magically found a set of rocket blasters attached to his backside?
#724
February 24th, 2009 21:58
Now don’t shout me down guys i am trying to look at this objectivly
If a French bred does win this year then maybe it will kill off this argument once and for all *sigh* last year we had the same with the blinkers thing.
Realisticly if i fancied them would i cross a horse off my list like Butlers cabin and Garde Champetre because they were french bred….answer no…..and why because they are long distance proven winners, sure you could say BC has only won up to 4M and the extra 4f will catch him out(how many national winners have won over 4m 4f before the race) and you could say GC runs long distance over the slow country track and the national is a different kettle of fish (Silver Birch)…all valid points but in reality they have almost been the distance and done it.
Last year many were either talked out of backing Comply or die or decided from the off they were not going to back him because of the blinkers stat, how can you put a black mark against something that is fitted to help a horse? after all they are fitted to help not hinder.
Had their been some evidence that French breds cannot stay the distance then i would be in the don’t back brigade, but i just cannot objectivly see a case for it. Had Hedgehunter fallen in 2005 we would not be having this discussion today
The 2005 National, Royal Auclair 2nd off 11-10, if i look at this honestly does this evidence tell me that a French bred who was carrying top weight(or there abouts)and came 2nd did not stay? in fact 2nd off top weight tells me what a bloody good “staying” performance he put in.
But in saying all this, this year i will not be backing any french Breds (maybe a small saver on GC) not because they are French Breds but because i just don’t fancy them…..but my advice would be don’t be put off what you read on here, if you fancy a French bred then back it.
I am a gambler who spends many hours studying races like this part for fun and part for profit
and if i adopted this blinkered opinion that French breds cannot win a modern day Grand national then i would be doing myself and my racing knowledge an injustice.
Sure no French bred has won for 100 years and in my opinion won’t this year but in real terms if you look at it objectivly with stayers like BC and GC this year there is no reason why…..in my opinion of course
#725
February 24th, 2009 22:08
well performance… i know the connections of kilbeggan blade and know that he is going to have a hurdle race as a prep probably in the first week of march and then head straight to aintree
#726
February 24th, 2009 22:09
excellent posting PUZZLED,i was going to say that!!!lol
you talk alot of sense my freind and put over well.
you should back bc and gc e/w thou you clown !! lol
#727
February 24th, 2009 22:30
In the cold light of day I have re-assessed the stats and the form and can only come up with 1 horse that I am happy with – RAMBLING MINSTER.
I know this is old news, but I’ve been desparelty trying to find something else with better trends and form and I just can’t do it! I’ve had to put a few more quid on him again today. I remember last yr when everyone (well, most) were convinced COD was the one and maybe we’ve done it again here.
How about we start re-posting our top 3 picks as things stand, with comments alongside as to any concerns?
1. Rambling Minster – no concerns apart from the fact his recent form looks different from the majority of GN winners (not enough to stop piling on the cash)
2. State of Play – Slight worry about the weight as it will rise owing to withdrawals, plus no recent run, though as others have pointed out he goes best fresh
3. Black Apalachi – Weight and ground issues
I did have HT but can’t forgive his recent run.
#728
February 24th, 2009 22:56
Sounds good to me Stats Man – my top two as well and have been for a while now
Waiting for form of others at Cheltenham, weights to get sorted out and still deciding about Kilbeggan Blade
#729
February 24th, 2009 22:58
If weights go up 7lb or 8lb I think Rambo’s chance is even better because a lot of classy types will be over the 11st barrier
However for State of Play and my longshot, Cane Brake, a rise in the weights wouldn’t be so good
#730
February 24th, 2009 23:22
Surprised that only Kj told bold Minty to go to his room.
I hear what your saying Minty but wrong target and would advise you to read all Daniel Edwards posts again.
Rambling Minster – Have run out of horses to challenge him. Is it time to sell the house and lump on at 20/1. 20/1 – what do the bookies know that we don’t. If the Dancer holds his ground, have we a new ball game, a new list – Snowy, C.O.D. or War.etc.
#731
February 24th, 2009 23:34
I guess the picture might be a little clearer tomorrow when we know the withdrawals but for the past 2 weeks now i have struggled to find an alternative to Rambo, every day i look and he looks even better and i find myself putting yet another Tenner on
I have to be careful…..Miinehoma says sell the house and lump on, it will be in reverse for me if he loses i will just have to sell the house….lol..lol
Seriously……. at the moment i just cannot see an alternative, i have a few saver bets running, but those are like Southern vic, hot weld and character building…all of which i thought i was going to steal the value before they run last week, little did i know that they were all going to fluff their lines in their preps
So all i can put up at this stage is Rambo.
#732
February 25th, 2009 00:19
i have been quiet here recently but i am on the rambling wagon too now. can the regulars give me their opinion on ballyfitz. he has come onto my radar today and i need to know if i’m being daft. my new 4 are rambling, garde, butlers and bally. will give my reasons soon.
#733
February 25th, 2009 00:42
Ballyfitz is fairly very high up my ratings list too – especially if they don’t go to Cheltenham with him – surely can’t win the race there anyway
+ve
He slammed BFT giving him 8lb and has some decent form should the weights stay the same
Outstayed Miko De Beauchene at levels in Cheltenham Festival handicap last year over hurdles
Ran very well at Aintree over hurdles staying race last year
Also his pedigree suggests he’ll stay all day
-ve
He’s neither run in a handicap chase nor a key trends race
He’s never run in a large field in a chase (7 biggest)
His chase topspeed is low – maybe because tactical races
He’s been novice chasing (but is 9 years old)
#734
February 25th, 2009 00:49
…and his jumping is inconsistent but then so was Snowy’s and he got into a rhythm last year and got round well
#735
February 25th, 2009 00:54
brilliant pablo. thank you. i’ll be back tomorrow but thank you!
#736
February 25th, 2009 02:55
Ballyfitz got crossed off my very first list which I would say is a worry in itself, must have had some major issues to do that.
Couldn’t agree more with everyone at the moment about both the french bred thing and Rambo. We should only apply a trend if it sensible to do so.
I have been saying for a while now that I hope something does step up and run a great prep race as I’m worried that there isn’t anything that touches Rambo and I don’t want all my faith in one horse lol. Comply was easily my favourite last year, but I had few bets on others to spread my liability. Think the cross country chase at Cheltenham could be a huge indicator this year, especially if BC runs in it to!
Good idea with the top 3 – see where everyone is at the moment.
My current 3 – assuming the weights rise at least 5lb are:
1. Rambling Minster
2. L’ami (Would prefer if Cheltenham wasn’t main aim but if runs well in that then well in at the weights and likely to collapse in price).
3. Garde Champetre
A few could overtake these if some things change but if the race was today with 5lb higher weights, they would be the 3 I was most confident backing.
Ells
1
#737
February 25th, 2009 11:04
top 3 at mo is,5 lb rise.
rambling minster,
butlers cabin,
state of play,
still got eye on,
gardechamp,
kilbeg/blade,
darkness,
and the old parsons leg.
#738
February 25th, 2009 11:14
Spoke to Aintree – nice to know some things haven’t changed lol – they’re as SLOW and INEFFICIENT as ever – they still HAVEN’T given withdrawal details to press although it took place yesterday lol.
Same shambles EVERY year.
Anyone wanting to hurry them up lol call 0151 522 2911
#739
February 25th, 2009 11:16
Top 3 – pre 1st forfeit stage
1) Rambling Minster
2=) Garde Champetre (Doubts: Aimed at Chelt xC)
2=) Simon (Doubts: Fallen twice previously of more weight)
2=) Parsons Legacy (Doubts: Might not line up, withdrawn last yr)
Cheating slightly, but there you have it!
#740
February 25th, 2009 11:31
Now told it will be released (hopefully) by 12 – 1 today, lol.
Duh…er…copy list…duh..paste onto web page…duh…release to racing post etc…duh…have another coffee..duh..
The more that call in will hopefully have a knock on effect and help the next fofeit stages being posted up quicker..
#741
February 25th, 2009 11:43
Maybe they’d work quicker if they didn’t have to keep answering the phone….
#742
February 25th, 2009 11:54
Trust me Gammer, Marketing Depts only act when they have to…if they think many (which is true) are vexed at delay they will act
#743
February 25th, 2009 12:08
“Pablo Says:
February 25th, 2009 at 12:42 am
Ballyfitz is fairly very high up my ratings list too – especially if they don’t go to Cheltenham with him – surely can’t win the race there anyway
-ve
He’s neither run in a handicap chase nor a key trends race
He’s never run in a large field in a chase (7 biggest)
His chase topspeed is low – maybe because tactical races
He’s been novice chasing (but is 9 years old)”
Reply:
Come on folks stop clutching at those straws – there all blow away in the wind.
Currently 10.10, Novice Chasing, Never ran with more tha 7 runners etc etc!!!! Get real – NO CHANCE!!!!
I seem to remember that Nick Mordon used to say one of the key GN trends was a 1/2/3 in a Han Chase with 12 or more runners (I think it still holds). I would rule Bally out on this alone.
And heres more negatives.
TS 94! (the absolute lowest TS is 111 if we go back about 12 years and has been 128 for many years now)
2 Chase wins (needs 3 min)
Ran in 5(!) Chases (needs 10 min)and no Han Chases
It gets worse the more you look at it – an absoulte stinker of a profile – forget it and lump on Rambo instead.
#744
February 25th, 2009 12:18
Wow, there’s been a lot of posts since I last visited. Tough to catch up. I think there’s a lot of straw clutching going on. I don’t think anyone wants to believe that there’s only 1 true trends horse with a real chance. If Rambling Minster doesn’t win, I think we’ll be reassessing for next year. So, I’d say steam in to Rambo and dont be afraid to go with your instinct on savers. I’m still hoping BC and Hear the Echo are there or there abouts in case Rambo doesn’t get round. Haven’t written Himalayan Trail off either and have decent money at decent 3 figure prices on Darkness which I’ll lay off closer to the day.
#745
February 25th, 2009 12:35
good morinin systems man,
whats your opinion, or anyones for that matter on darkness,revillez,and do you think totally discount southernvic and him/trail after last runs,
replys would be helpful,they are still bugging me.
just trying to eliminate from list.
cheers.
#746
February 25th, 2009 13:00
Ha ha – you do make me laugh Brody. Caln Royal and Royal Auclair have been great place money successes for you!! I hate to think how little money you win.
Clan Royal, 3rd at 5/1Fav and who was nowhere in his other two National runs (accepting he was carried out once). And the brilliant Royal Auclair who fell in the National in both 2006 and 2007.
I am not saying that a French Bred horse cannot win the National just that it is very unlikely! Let’s see who is all on here posting on the evening of the race or the following morning about the French Bred winner. And I am talking about the winner and have done so consitently – not places (though I would not back a French Bred at all).
Where are you when I need you Wacky!!
#747
February 25th, 2009 13:10
17 withdrawals including
Denman, Air Force One, Cane Brake and the late Endless Power.
#748
February 25th, 2009 13:12
Any idea who the others are, I cant find them anywhere
#749
February 25th, 2009 13:13
THE FOLLOWING 17 HORSES HAVE BEEN OFFICIALLY SCRATCHED BY THEIR TRAINERS:
AIR FORCE ONE (GER), CANE BRAKE (IRE), GWANAKO (FR), ABBEYBRANEY (IRE), ENDLESS POWER (IRE), TRABOLGAN (IRE), OEDIPE (FR), D’ARGENT (IRE), HOMER WELLS (IRE), GALLANT APPROACH (IRE), SEA DIVA (IRE), EMMA JANE (IRE), BALLYTRIM (IRE), ROYAL ROSA (FR), DENMAN (IRE), JOE LIVELY (IRE), LEADING ATTRACTION (IRE)
#750
February 25th, 2009 13:15
Courtesy of the Aintree website:
THE FOLLOWING 17 HORSES HAVE BEEN OFFICIALLY SCRATCHED BY THEIR TRAINERS:
AIR FORCE ONE (GER), CANE BRAKE (IRE), GWANAKO (FR), ABBEYBRANEY (IRE), ENDLESS POWER (IRE), TRABOLGAN (IRE), OEDIPE (FR), D’ARGENT (IRE), HOMER WELLS (IRE), GALLANT APPROACH (IRE), SEA DIVA (IRE), EMMA JANE (IRE), BALLYTRIM (IRE), ROYAL ROSA (FR), DENMAN (IRE), JOE LIVELY (IRE), LEADING ATTRACTION (IRE)
#751
February 25th, 2009 13:21
Hi Green St. I’ve had a small bet on Darkness already as I do really like him and he is unknown. This is what I wrote few days ago
“Fits in with last two winners of coming back from absence. Obviously fancy for National as already been entered in Scottish and Welsh Nationals before. If back to old form then well in. Unsure about stamina but nice outsider. Looking for next run.”
As for Reveillez, he is another 1 I like and similar profile to Darkness. However not been top 3 in a chase this season, nor has he top 5 in Hennessy, top 3 in National etc, although did come 2nd to Hot Weld in class 1 over 29f. Do quite like but it would take major performance at Newbury/Cheltenham for me to back him.
As for Southern Vic and HT they have both gone from my list. Was never a fan of SV this year anyway, and HT’s run over hurdles wasn’t inspiring at all, was outpaced whole time.
That’s my two cents anyway
Ells
1
#752
February 25th, 2009 13:39
Glad to see our peristence brought that list out on the website nice and early. Now for all you Rambo fans – a quote from today
It’s lookin’ good…
Keith Reveley believes Rambling Minster has all the necessary attributes to launch a bold bid for John Smith’s Grand National glory.
The 11-year-old is a 16-1 chance with totesport for the April 4 event following his impressive victory in the Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock earlier in the month.
Rambling Minster is among 106 horses going forward for the £900,000 feature at the first forfeit stage.
Reveley said: “The plan now is to go straight to Aintree.
“Rambling Minster’s win at Haydock last time was brilliant – he galloped, jumped and travelled really well. That was probably a career best performance at the age of 11, which is amazing.”
Rambling Minster, who has 10st 1lb in the handicap, won over a marathon trip at Kelso in 2007 and his Saltburn trainer has no concerns about his ability to see out the extra three furlongs.
Reveley continued: “He’ll definitely stay the distance at Aintree. He won a Borders National on heavy ground over four miles, one furlong, so the trip won’t be a problem.
“A bigger concern would be the 39 other horses all travelling flat out over those massive fences – you need luck in running to have any chance.
“It was heavy at Haydock last time but he will go on any ground and I personally believe his preference is for good ground, even though he will handle a bit of cut.
“In his younger days we always thought of him as a good ground horse, so we’ll take more or less anything.”
Reveley’s son, jockey James Reveley, has struck up a good partnership with Rambling Minster and after enjoying a first success over the National fences aboard the ill-fated Endless Power last November, he is set to retain the mount.
The trainer added: “James has been doing well and is improving all the time. He has already managed to have a winner over the Aintree fences so that experience will stand him in good stead.
“It is a good partnership, the horse jumps well for him and they seem to suit each other.
“We just need to be 100% on the day, keep away from any bugs and such like along the way and then pray for loads of luck on the day. That’s all we can do.”
There were no major surprises among those withdrawn from the race with the likes of Denman and injured pair Trabolgan and Joe Lively taken out.
#753
February 25th, 2009 13:47
Whitearab Says:
February 25th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
Ha ha – you do make me laugh Brody. Caln Royal and Royal Auclair have been great place money successes for you!! I hate to think how little money you win.
Clan Royal, 3rd at 5/1Fav and who was nowhere in his other two National runs (accepting he was carried out once). And the brilliant Royal Auclair who fell in the National in both 2006 and 2007.
I am not saying that a French Bred horse cannot win the National just that it is very unlikely! Let’s see who is all on here posting on the evening of the race or the following morning about the French Bred winner. And I am talking about the winner and have done so consitently – not places (though I would not back a French Bred at all).
Where are you when I need you Wacky!!
Yeah cos I take SP on all my national bets, for the record Clan Royal 25/1 Royal Auclair 50 & 66/1 paid out 1/4 odds so RA paid more than CoD SP last year and CR only slightly less. Probably did a bit better than you last year as being a win only trends luddite you would never have backed a blinkered runner, (or Eider winner) that one was in stone like the FR bred trend, made no logical sense also (feel free to aftertime away though).
By all means come on here and brag all you want if a french bred doesn’t win this year, doesn’t prove anything, now if they don’t win for twenty years I’ll accept you’re right. This year I think it is more likely than not a french bred won’t win and can only see two french breds who I think have strong claims to win the race (backed 6 including 2 FR) and they could both meet trouble in running or find one too good (Rambling Minster). But if Garde and Butler’s don’t win it won’t be because of their liking for garlic and smelly cheese that’s for sure.
Do feel free to back up your assertion with a well thought out, logical, intelligent reasoning or you could just post something like this “100/100 LOL!!! (FR) CAN”T WIN!!!” and I’ll feel free to ignore you like I do Wacky.
#754
February 25th, 2009 13:49
Rambo is sitting now at number 50 – very nice
For others fancies on this site, between 51 – 60 sits Southern, Garde, Hot W, Kilbeggan, Brooklyn, Character, Conna nd Himalayan at no.60 – All these lookin good for entry
Will post up entire list now for everyone’s ref on site.
#755
February 25th, 2009 13:50
Top 70:
Form Horse Age/Wgt Owner Trainer
353-231 EXOTIC DANCER (FR) 9-11-10 Sir Robert Ogden Jonjo O’Neill
425F-611 MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 8-11-08 Roger Stanley & Yvonne Reynolds II David Pipe
31320P SNOOPY LOOPY (IRE) 11-11-05 Walters Plant Hire Ltd Egan Waste Ltd Peter Bowen
11/3-024 STAR DE MOHAISON (FR) 8-11-05 Sir Robert Ogden Paul Nicholls
63P-4112 NOTRE PERE (FR) 8-11-04 Tillie Conway Jim Dreaper IRE
112/-U1P0 NOZIC (FR) 8-11-03 Sam Mcvie Paul Nicholls
16-0431 CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain Jnr
1/1//2110-4 AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (IRE) 11-11-01 E McElroy, Linda Shanahan, Sue Magnier Noel Meade IRE
23/-1132 WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-01 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE
61U1F23 CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 9-11-00 Frances Duffin Tom Mullins IRE
3/114-16 IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 8-11-00 Our Friends in the North Nigel Twiston-Davies
332-56F2 SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-00 Quayside Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
16UP-10 KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-10-13 Raymond Mould Nigel Twiston-Davies
225-13P ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13 Bryan & Philippa Burrough Carl Llewellyn
P211-P0 COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12 David Johnson David Pipe
3P1-5025 MONKERHOSTIN (FR) 12-10-12 Martin St Quinton Philip Hobbs
40-25555 OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12 Roger Nicholls Nigel Twiston-Davies
4-2P51P0 STAN (NZ) 10-10-12 Paul Beck Venetia Williams
20F2-P151 BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-10-11 Gerard Burke Dessie Hughes IRE
501-556U HEAR THE ECHO (IRE) 8-10-11 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE
6P-024143 ONE COOL COOKIE (IRE) 8-10-11 Gigginstown House Stud Charlie Swan IRE
140-0F1 PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-10-11 John D O’Donohue Tom O’Leary IRE
152-1122 BALLYFITZ 9-10-10 F J Mills & W Mills Nigel Twiston-Davies
P/22212- KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 10-10-10 J P McManus Arthur Moore IRE
12P-0UU3 MIKO DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 9-10-10 Andrew Wiles Robert & Sally Alner
32023/-5 MY WILL (FR) 9-10-10 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls
411P/1P/- EUROTREK (IRE) 13-10-09 Paul Green Paul Nicholls
11640-5 L’ANTARTIQUE (FR) 9-10-09 Mary Durkan Ferdy Murphy
2560-14 STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08 Mr & Mrs William Rucker Evan Williams
2-322U13 BIG FELLA THANKS 7-10-07 Paul Barber & Maggie Findlay Paul Nicholls
00-21020 MON MOME (FR) 9-10-06 Vida Bingham Venetia Williams
0/1PP-63P OPERA MUNDI (FR) 7-10-06 Sir Robert Ogden Paul Nicholls
F/02421/- SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-06 Brian Walsh (Co. Kildare) Gordon Elliott IRE
03F-000 BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill
1111F-0 HOBBS HILL 10-10-05 J P McManus Charles Egerton
1111/U2- OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 9-10-05 Brian Polly Charlie Swan IRE
23/54-1P PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-04 R A S Offer Philip Hobbs
F0612/-P REVEILLEZ 10-10-04 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill
00146P FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-03 Colin Cornes Nigel Twiston-Davies
1/P133/3- GOLDEN FLIGHT (FR) 10-10-03 John & Barbara Cotton Nicky Henderson
03F0-421 L’AMI (FR) 10-10-03 J P McManus Enda Bolger IRE
2U4U-40 SIMON 10-10-03 Mercy Rimell John Spearing
332-245P BATTLECRY 8-10-02 Trevor Hemmings Nigel Twiston-Davies
P00-F120 CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-02 Peter Hart Paul Nicholls
042-P610 FLEET STREET 10-10-02 Henry Ponsonby Nicky Henderson
122210 MUSICA BELLA (FR) 9-10-02 Jean-Paul Senechal Francois Cottin FR
63-11131 CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-01 J P McManus Jonjo O’Neill
113P//-3P DARKNESS 10-10-01 Lady Lloyd-Webber Charles Egerton
F32311 IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-01 Sackcloth & Ashes Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
46-5651 RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01 The Lingdale Optimists Keith Reveley
2314-64P SILVERBURN (IRE) 8-10-01 Paul Green Paul Nicholls
5F/-06U34 SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01 Brenda Graham Ted Walsh IRE
P641PP ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00 Mr & Mrs Peter James Douglas Peter Bowen
111-421 GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00 J P McManus Enda Bolger IRE
PPP611/-P HOT WELD 10-9-13 Simon Hubbard Rodwell Ferdy Murphy
20P-111 KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13 K Doocey & Mrs A Doocey Tom George
412402 BROOKLYN BROWNIE (IRE) 10-9-12 P Gaffney & Neil Stevenson Malcolm Jefferson
P/3-14330 CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-9-12 Mrs E Wright John Quinn
P-2P6006 CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 10-9-12 Kings Syndicate Jimmy Mangan IRE
1-P504P0 HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12 Mark Gittins Jimmy Mangan IRE
33-4F0F0 PIRAYA (FR) 6-9-12 Terry Neill David Pipe
26U-344 TUMBLING DICE (IRE) 10-9-12 Lucy Donegan Tom Taaffe IRE
3/00010- ARTEEA (IRE) 10-9-11 Judith Wilson David Pipe
0P/50PP- CERIUM (FR) 8-9-11 Judith Wilson Paul Murphy
050-240 IDLE TALK (IRE) 10-9-11 Trevor Hemmings Donald McCain Jnr
0F2U6-P KELAMI (FR) 11-9-11 Halewood International Ltd Lisa Williamson
0/232P5/- ZABENZ (NZ) 12-9-11 Sarah Hobbs Philip Hobbs
PP541P ICE TEA (IRE) 9-9-10 Sandicroft Stud Donald McCain Jnr
2U41U-0 MALJIMAR (IRE) 9-9-10 Jane Williams Nick Williams
211-1113 COMPANERO (IRE) 9-9-09 W M G Black & Sue Johnson Howard Johnson
#756
February 25th, 2009 13:58
Top three
1. Rambling Minster
1. Butlers Cabin
(but MUST HAVE 1/2/3 at 25f or more prior to GN its all own to the next race)
2. Garde Champetre
(has won Class1 Nov Hurd at Aintree!)
2. Kilbeggan Blade
(PU in three C1 chases a big worry)
Watching
State Of Play (weight, MUST be under 11.00, nice profile). Wont let 33/1 go without taking some though.
Darkness (watching next run)
Parsons Legacy (price a bit high too many 40/1′s, needs another prep run)
Black Apalachi (weight, MUST be under 11.00)
I would like to hear more opinions on Mon Mome – 10th last year but good trends and a C1 winner this season (do we stand by the trend that placed horses in GN can never win the next year?). Some of us would look stupid if he was the French horse that did win and not BC or GC!
#757
February 25th, 2009 14:13
Mon Mome is on my watch list for the time being. Much depends on who comes out at the top of the handicap – if Cloudy Lane ends up as top weight then Mon Mome carries 11’01.
If it comes up soft and the weights go up by 5lbs or less then I’d be interested, but slightly put off by 3 career URs.
Watching brief for the time being.
#758
February 25th, 2009 14:16
I’m not interested in Mon Mome; backed him ew last year and he was disappointing.
Yes he has won a big race this year, but then he didnt run well next time out when conditions should have suited as fave or Joint fave. I think he is too hard to get right perhaps. Whatever it is, he wont have any of my money.
Not much help on the withdrawls today; its got rid of most of the 6 & 7 year olds, which of course we had all done already!
#759
February 25th, 2009 14:46
thanks for reply
all helps,yet again we wait to see what this weekend brings one way or the other,
bin looking to see where parsons leg may run at cheltenham,as read that would behis prep for national.cant see him entered in any chases,bit worrying?.
still a bit of concern to me about old adage,aimd at cheltenham,peak to soon for aintree,
would bother me with,
garde champetre,
lami,in x country,
also my will,notre pere,knowhere,war of attrition,miko d b.
all gold cup entries,probably first aim.
not new i know,but bit to ponder.
#760
February 25th, 2009 14:51
Whitearab you keep going on about this french stat you have regarding the number of places athey have got against the number of runners but a couple of week ago i asked you to look at the same stat for British bred horses and you still have not come back with the reply.
Also please consider the following to points regarding french bred horses:
1. French horses were ONCE bred for speed over a short distance therefore it was reasonable to discount them from the national hopefuls but nowadays that stat is blown out of all proportions because French horses are no longer just bred for Speed (Have a look at the long list of recent french winners winning top class races over the longer distances).
2. If you just count the parents of grand national winners then 20% of the last 10 winners were part french.
If you allow to go back a little further in there bloodline to include there grandparents then 50% of all grand national winners in the last 10 years were part french.
Now if you dont want to include any french breds then fine but stop quoting misleading Stats as some people will look at what your saying and interpret it wrong and be put off certain horses for the absolute wrong reasons.
#761
February 25th, 2009 14:54
I repeat;
Correlation does NOT equal causation.
Butlers Cabin has been trained in Ireland since he was a foal. He has never raced in France, Im not even sure he was born in France (?) His two parents (one of whom was not even French) got it on whilst IN france.
Somebody tell me why that means he cannot win the GN?
Please.
#762
February 25th, 2009 14:57
OK guys we’re all doing our bit as a team now
Well done everyone!
Can anyone take on the task of posting up a handy list of all prospective GN winners who are running this weekend?
Be great if this list had meeting and time of each race.
#763
February 25th, 2009 14:57
Sorry, NEITHER of his parents are in fact French, they are both USA bred, although one of them has a trace of french bloodline.
#764
February 25th, 2009 15:07
Showlad;
SATURDAY:-
Cloudy Lane – Kelso – 3.35 AND Doncaster (Grimthorpe) 3.25
Comply or Die – Doncaster 3.25
Darkness – Newbury 2.35 AND Doncaster 3.25
Fundamentalist – Newbury 2.35 AND 3.10
Hobbs Hill – Newbury 3.10
Idle Talk – Newbury 2.35 AND Doncaster 3.25
Irish Raptor – Newbury 2.35
King Johns Castle – Navan 3.20
Stan – Newbury 3.10
Reveillez Newbury 3.10
…
Quiet a few in other words!!
Doncaster 3.25 and Newbury 2.35 seem to be the ones to watch.
I will be interested to watch Irish Raptor and Darkness in particular (although im not sure Darkness is suited by the big fields of the GN)
#765
February 25th, 2009 15:14
Himalayan trail is meant to be having another run tomorrow!!
#766
February 25th, 2009 15:17
Sorry, I wasn’t clear; that’s just a list for Saturday.
#767
February 25th, 2009 15:18
Thanks Daniel
Let’s use that as a rolling list – anymore running this weekend can be added to it.
#768
February 25th, 2009 15:19
YES pls Dan update all runners for all races this week up to and inc Sunday – Go Danny
#769
February 25th, 2009 15:24
well no suprises, putting Abbeybraney in the ones to watch memory bank for next year and beyond! We’re all mostly, playing the beyond Rambo game, beyond my 4 anteposts, GC, BA, Cornish and err um.. Rambo! I’ve got alot of FRs on my standby list! plus others already on radar, things for me haven’t changed in a long time as never really convinced by SV, HTE, jury out more on Him Trail as spring horse. I am no nearer picking my extra 2 and may not now until nearer the time, cheltenham.
Note to Admin!
think this thread is making my computer a bit unhappy,…new thread please!
(also did you get my email?)
#770
February 25th, 2009 15:38
Fact a French Bred horse has not won the Grand National for 100 years exactly. I don’t know how many have tried but I’d reckon upwards of at l;east a couple of hundred. Folks who read this Board will have the brains to decide if a rendis material or not Brian. And no I am not going off to research things for you – do it yourself.
Fact 2 – the head British handicapper (Phil Smith) has himself commented on the French Bred matter, when asked how to narrow down finding the winner.
I am happy to accept that one year a French Bred may win the National but until one does, get the red pen out.
#771
February 25th, 2009 15:39
Irish Rapter Daniel? is he in the national!?
really think I should cross him off.
not that I am interested in him at all.
Good list of some real hopefuls, something to really enjoy watching, is it on C4? ..except HTs run tmw. which I assume will still leave us none the wiser about him. God I hope its not sunny GN day or I might back him
#772
February 25th, 2009 15:42
Sorry, got Irish Raptor confused with Irish Invader!
#773
February 25th, 2009 15:42
Mon Mome. I think the biggest problem he has at Aintree is his size (if weights rise more than 5lb, say, I think he find it difficult to win) and it did appear as though he found the course hard going last year but he wasn’t running well last year anyway and I seem to remember Venetia Williams saying he wasn’t 100%. And he was actually only a 7 yr old (foaled in late April). This year, as Systems says, he is smack on the trends.
#774
February 25th, 2009 16:00
FENCES ONE & TWO
They’re under starters orders and they’re off! 75 potential winners of the 2009 John Smith’s Grand National but only one can win. They’re jostling for an early lead from the off and the first fence is approached at speed. Oh no! EUROTREK falls at the first! We’ve never had a 13 year old winner of the Grand National since the war and there won’t be one this year.
It seems that age is a factor as they approach the second – the nine year olds are finding themselves in a prominent position, 23 of the last 62 winners have come from this age group.
We lose GWANAKO and PIRAYA at the second, the babies of the group at six years of age fair just as badly as 13 year olds and we can ditch some more at…
THE FIRST OPEN DITCH
The 7 year olds fail to buck a lifetime’s trend. AIR FORCE ONE, BIG FELLA THANKS, OPERA MUNDI, CAN’T BUY TIME and OEDIPE are all impeded by the loose horses and stutter at the third.
FENCES FOUR AND FIVE
Only 67 of our starters remain and the weight of the task is too much for our top weights EXOTIC DANCER and MADISON DU BERLAIS who refuse at the fourth. RED RUM was the last horse to carry 11-08 or more to Grand National victory and these two refuse to defy that tradition.
Calamity at the fifth – it’s a heavy task – and no one feels it more than SNOOPY LOOPY, STAR DE MOHAISON, NOTRE PETRE and NOZIC. Since 1960 only 6 horses have ridden to victory carrying 11-03 or more, RED RUM did it twice and the last time was CORBIERE in 1983!
BECHER’S BROOK
Arguably the most difficult of the national fences and our remaining 61 hopeful jockeys know they need to be on a competent mount. OUCH! It’s crash, burn and nose dives for MON MOME, KELAMI, L’AMI, FUNDAMENTALIST, CORNISH SETT, SIMON, MIKO DE BEUCHENE, MALJIMAR, IDLE TALK, CHELSEA HARBOUR, ABBEYBRANEY, KNOWHERE and HEAR THE ECHO. All have registered three or more falls or unseated riders stats in their careers. No surprise then to find only 54 remaining after Becher’s.
Nearly a third of the field are already rueing what might have been as we approach…
FOINAVON
The famous scene of 1967 where there was a huge pile-up as a rider-less horse cut across the Grand National runners. Oh my word! A repeat in 2009! Loose horse ABBEYBRANEY, who has never won over three miles or further takes out CONNA CASTLE, SILVERBURN, MUSICA BELLA, CERIUM, HOBBSHILL, ARTEEA, TUMBLING DICE, L’ANTARTIQUE, ONE COOL COOKIE, STAN, IMPERIAL COMMANDER and KING JOHN’S CASTLE! Uncanny! None of those horses have won at three miles or further either! But then, the last horse to win the Grand National that had not already registered a career win over three miles was GAY TRIP in 1970 so no surprise that this bunch fail to make the trip in 2009.
CANAL TURN
With less than the maximum 40 runners now remaining it’s possible the starter might realise his mistake at letting 75 begin this virtual race! This could raise the weights of all the horses by as much as 8 pounds. Something clearly on the minds of AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS, WAR OF ATTRITION and SNOWY MORNING. Their races take a turn for the worse as all three refuse at the eighth.
VALENTINES
No love lost at fence number nine as the hopes of BROOKLYN BROWNIE, CHARACTER BUILDING and ICE TEA turn cold. All three are fallers and are left to wonder if they’ll ever win a race worth more than £17,000! The last ten year’s Grand National winners all have but these nags are still waiting. This year to buck the trend? Not for love nor money!
FENCES 10 and 11
As our serious contenders take a breather over two standard fences we see PREIST’S LEAP and IRISH INVADER tail off before the tenth. The class horses are simply outclassing them and since neither has managed to register a class 1 or 2 chase victory to their name they prove to be simply not good enough to win the 2009 renewal.
Preparation is key to Grand National victory. None of the last 12 national winners has pulled up more than once in races leading up to its victory. That accounts for ALWAYS WAINING and HIMALAYAN TRAIL who pull up (again!) at the eleventh.
FENCE 12
It’s a long run to fence number 12 and it’s a long road to Grand National victory. All of the last 12 national winners had at least four runs in the year preceding their victory and the average is only just short of 6. Simply not enough time for those we lose at fence number 12 to be primed for this race. Front runner HOT WELD fails to complete here and we also lose DARKNESS, SILVER BIRCH, CANE BRAKE, COMPLY OR DIE, DARKNESS, GOLDEN FLIGHT, MY WILL, OFFSHORE ACCOUNT, PARSONS LEGACY, REVEILLEZ, STATE OF PLAY, TRABOLGAN and ZABENZ.
FENCE 13
Bizarrely thirteen horses remain as we cross the Melling Road and approach the thirteenth. Ultimately the national can only be lucky for one but the following are jumping and running strong for their respective jockeys:
BALLYFITZ 9-10-10
BATTLECRY 8-10-02
BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-10-11
BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05
CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02
FLEET STREET 10-10-02
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00
KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13
MONKERHOSTIN (FR) 12-10-12
OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12
RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01
ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13
SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01
FENCE 14
OLLIE MAGERN is leading the field. A known front runner and a class horse with over £300k in career prize money. MONKERHOSTIN, BUTLER’S CABIN and GARDE CHAMPETRE remain to defy the French bred statistic (no winner for 100 years or more). Irish eyes are smiling as BLACK APALACHI, ROLL ALONG and SOUTHERN VIC remain in contention. They’re all over the fourteenth and we approach The Chair.
THE CHAIR
Experience is beginning to tell as we approach the half-way point of the National. The tallest fence on the course, and the longest, but its stringing out the field. BALLYFITZ is first to succumb – unseated at the chair. History shows us that Grand National winners need at least 10 chase runs behind them before competing for the ultimate prize. BALLYFITZ has but four.
THE WATER JUMP
Splash! ROLL ALONG’s dreams are sunk at the water jump, with just 7 career chases to his name he falls short of national pedigree and it’s a wet afternoon’s work for the jockey.
FENCE SEVENTEEN
The last of our remaining hopefuls that fails to meet the form book of chase runs pulls up at the seventeenth. FLEET STREET won’t be making the papers tomorrow with just nine chase runs.
FENCE EIGHTEEN
Ten remain then and we are moments away from discovering the 2009 champion. MONKERHOSTIN refuses here though and we’re down to nine. No one expected to see him here after he found the Aintree fences not to his liking in 2007 and he has not had a change of heart since.
FENCE NINETEEN
OLLIE MAGERN pulls up. A valiant effort from the front runner but his legs have gone and doubts about his stamina for this have sadly proven prophetic.
FENCE TWENTY
Our final eight are over the twentieth safely.
It’s BATTLECRY from BLACK APALACHI with BUTLER’S CABIN in hot pursuit. Alphabetical order persists with CLOUDY LANE in fourth, a length ahead of GARDE CHAMPETRE. KILBEGGAN BLADE follows up in sixth and our back markers are RAMBLING MINSTER and SOUTHERN VIC.
FENCE TWENTY-ONE
There’s no more puff in CLOUDY LANE and he calls it a day at the twenty-first. Carrying 11-02 was always going to take its toll on last year’s favourite and he pulls up ten from home.
FENCE TWENTY-TWO
Cries of derision as BATTLECRY falls at the twenty-second. Was disappointing in the Racing Post Chase in Kempton this February and doubts over his jumping, stamina and ability to run in a big field prove his undoing in the Grand National.
FOINAVON
No calamities this time around. RAMBLING MINSTER and BUTLER’S CABIN, proven stayers, are looking strong. BLACK APALACHI is justifying he punter’s money. GARDE CHAMPETRE is looking comfortable too whilst KILBEGGAN BLADE and SOUTHERN VIC are not out of contention either. They’re all over Foinavon.
THE CANAL TURN
SOUTHERN VIC fell at the Canal Turn in last year’s Becher’s Chase, which BLACK APALACHI went on to win, and history has repeated itself as SOUTHERN VIC tumbles here. His last win over three miles (or over any distance) was back in 2006. All his wins have come on soft to heavy ground and the rest are just too good for SOUTHERN VIC to overcome this time around.
FENCE TWENTY-FIVE
BUTLER’S CABIN looked like a National winner before his nose-dive last year and he’s outlasted himself this time around, taking the twenty-fifth and taking the lead from BLACK APALACHI who is waning. RAMBLING MINSTER looks like he stays forever whilst GARDE CHAMPETRE and KILBEGGAN BLADE are aiming to shock the favourite-backers. They’re all over safely and approaching Valentine’s for the final time.
VALENTINE’S
It’s all over bar the ‘might-have-beens’ for BLACK APALACHI. Effectively raised 21 pounds since winning last year’s Becher’s Chase. He fell at the second in the 2008 Grand National and is another that likes it softer. He gives up the chase at Valentine’s, pulling up to leave our field down to four.
FENCE TWENTY-SEVEN
Four to jump but only one of four can win the Grand National – GARDE CHAMPETRE, KILBEGGAN BLADE, RAMBLING MINSTER and BUTLER’S CABIN. The Irish look stunned as two French horses take up the running in the final stages. GARDE CHAMPETRE from BUTLER’S CABIN, RAMBLING MINSTER up there gamely and KILBEGGAN BLADE on their heels. 1, 2, 3, 4 – they’re all over keenly with just three to jump.
FENCE TWENTY-EIGHT
Female jockeys don’t win Nationals, French-breds don’t win nationals, ten of eleven previous winners have more than ten 3-mile races to their career profiles. GARDE CHAMPETRE looks a winner but the Grand National takes no prisoners and the other three look ‘more like’ Grand National winners. We lose GARDE CHAMPETRE at the twenty-eighth – he falls after a game effort but just has too much to prove.
FENCE TWENTY-NINE
The French are desperately disappointed as BUTLER’S CABIN makes a mistake two out. The horse has not been in form this year, was over-rated for this year’s national and subsequently took on too much weight purely based on his effort in last year’s renewal. He’s too far behind to catch RAMBLING MINSTER and KILBEGGAN BLADE.
THE FINAL FENCE
KILBEGGAN BLADE and RAMBLING MINSTER take the final fence in their stride. Both can stay, both can jump but they can’t both win. KILBEGGAN BLADE has three career pulled-ups to his name (including last year’s Scottish National), he’s won just one race in a field of 16+ horses after 13 times of asking and would prefer more cut in the ground.
RAMBLING MINSTER has three wins in big fields but he likes to come from off the pace which doesn’t suit the national. He might be expected to be too far behind at this stage to mount a challenge which all looks good for…
BUTLER’S CABIN has come back from nowhere! He’s found form when it matters the most, he’s made up for his earlier error and he’s past KILBEGGAN BLADE, now a distant third. RAMBLING MINSTER remains the only obstacle to French success. Can he get there?
NO! RAMBLING MINSTER wins by a short head from BUTLER’S CABIN with KILBEGGAN BLADE in third.
What a National! What a result! News has just broken that some geezer in Lincolnshire has just won a shed-load!
#775
February 25th, 2009 16:16
Whitearab i already know the answer for the percentages of british horses placed in the same timeframe you done it for the french horses.
My point is you dont so therefore how can you base your findings as fact when you aren’t comparing them to anything else.
But soon as im kind and like people to have all the facts then here you go.
Irish horses placings as a percentage over the past 9 years = 13.68%
British Horses placed as a percentage over the past 9 years = 6.15%
French horses placed as a percentage over the past 9 years = 6.31%
And like i say if you rule out French bred horses for the reason that very little of them place compared to how many run then you need to do the exact same for all british bred horses as well.
The 100 years since last french horse won stat is not valid nowadays becaus of the breeding program that is now in place in france to enable french bred horses to have the stamina for the big races in the uk and ireland which they started taking more and more serious roughly 9 year ago.
Discount French breds at your peril. And to be honest i hope you, whitearab, do discount french breds until one has won as that will be one extra winner the rest of us find that you dont.
#776
February 25th, 2009 16:18
and Rascal wins most enjoyable pretend running of the 2009 GN!!!
#777
February 25th, 2009 16:22
#778
February 25th, 2009 16:27
legendary !!! hahaha
#779
February 25th, 2009 16:35
You should send that off to the Racing Post Rascal, Genius
#780
February 25th, 2009 16:40
Nice one Rascal, as long as Nina gets back on GC and finshes fourth then i would be very happy with that result.
Whitearab i have already stated earlier that the french and british placings are very similar. will need to check out htem percentages that someone has stated above to see if they match up.
But all im saying is that you stating facts regarding the french should be proven facts and current facts not out of date statements or facts that are not compared to anything. (will be interesting to see if the britsh percent is lower than the french as originally thought it was just slightly higher).
As for people who come on here should have the brains to work it out for themselves then i think you need to keep your opinions to yourself then and let them make up there own minds instead of spouting facts that can be proven to be incorrect to persuade people to think like you.
We have done the french bred to death and to be honest im sick of hearing about it now but if you insist on talking about it then please state the truth.
YES its a Fact French horse not won the national for 100 years.
But last year the same was said about eider winners and horses wearing blinkers.
Trends are there to help guide us to the winner and certain trends need to be looked at in a different light each year.
#781
February 25th, 2009 16:50
Great work Rascal truly great.
fingers crossed that it pans out like that, although the short head victory makes me feel sick, can you at least make it 3 lenghts for the sake of my nerves?
#782
February 25th, 2009 16:52
when i do the rewrite, no problem.
you might not win on the rewrite though 
#783
February 25th, 2009 17:57
Guys – just something thats been niggling me over the past few days .. at the weekend i completely ruled out Southern Vic due to his shortcomings in the Bobby jo
on heavy ground , twelve months previously, snowy morning was a similarly warm order for this race .. he jumped like an absolute dog and trailed in ten lenghts behind afistful of dollars and hedgehunter… there were all sorts of nasty comments about the quality of his jumping and that he looked like
he would be an accident waiting to happen at aintree.
form summary for the race:
Stablemate and odds-on favourite Snowy Morning was very disappointing. He didn’t jump with any fluency and, having been held up, he was struggling to make any impression four out. He just kept on at one pace in the straight, and while it’s far too early to write him off for Aintree, he wouldn’t be sent on this evidence.
he then proceeded on his very next race to run a belter at aintree off eleven stone – leading till the very last . he didnt win it but he sure gave his supporters a run for their money …
so the point is , maybe we have prematurely written southern vic off and that we need to be careful not to miss what happened from the previosu year
im not advocating he may win it but just a small point to bear in mind that it may not preclude him from running well in the big one…
#784
February 25th, 2009 18:17
I wouldnt disagree with that, but it was enough of a negative for me to make others have far better chances.
#785
February 25th, 2009 18:39
Great post Rascal, loved it and agree with the outcome and just like my dream BC and Rambo fighting out the finish.
#786
February 25th, 2009 19:01
Loved the commentary, some debatable fallers/puller uppers lol but gotta be done haha.
As for Snowy Morning Silver Birch. You hit the nail on head in the fact that he didn’t win. As far as I know all our trends and stats only apply for winners. There’s going to be plenty of horses that break trends for places all the time. King Johns Castle really shook me up last year. But if your looking at Snowy Morning in 3rd then we might aswell look at KJC and say well he had hardly even run over 3m, never mind won at it. Had Comply fallen at the last he would have gone on broke most of the trends out there. I’m not going to start doubting my decision on all the horses that haven’t won at 3m+ now though.
Plus at least Snowy Morning had had good form over the winter. 2 firsts in hurdle races and then ran 3rd in both the Irish Hennessy and Bobby Jo. Plus to his credit he was running on in that race at the end, after some bad errors.
Southern Vic on the other hand has ran terribly all season. The reason why every one has been so critical of that run is because he needed a good run there to prove to everyone that he is the same horse or a horse that fits the trends and can win the GN. If he didn’t need that race then yes it would be a downer, but people wouldn’t be totally writing him off. That’s the difference.
I think the point with all these things like we have said before is common sense. If Southern Vic had it all on paper and had just ran badly there then I certainly wouldn’t be striking him off my list. But that was his last chance to prove to me why people are so loyal to him and he showed me nothing to alter my opinion on him. I really don’t understand the fascination with Southern Vic anymore. I had him 2 years ago as a great National type and had small ante post bet accordingly. However he has very poor form this season and has never ran on the ground he is going to encounter at Aintree.
Nice observation to make but I wouldn’t let it worry you. It would upset a few trends were SV to win now. And if we get as nit picky as that like I say, we may well have to re-assess all those under 3m wins because KJC ran even better than Snowy Morning.
Ells
1
#787
February 25th, 2009 19:01
New to this site! What a great analysis of the greatest steeplechase in the world!
Just wanted to get your opinion on Brooklyn Breeze. Seems to fit all the trends except minimum winning prize money – £16k as opposed to £17k. Am I right that’s the only one he falls down on?
Has Class 1 form with Snoopy Loopy on good ground, has run previously over the National fences. Only negative I can see is possible staminda doubts – never run over 3m before.
Would love to hear your views on this one!
#788
February 25th, 2009 19:06
Thank you for your kind comments. I am just glad I didn’t post it last night. BALLYFITZ might have won (I was quite drunk) but at least it meant we could talk about some other horses. We seem to be agreed on RAMBLING MINSTER and (with exceptions) BUTLER’S CABIN. A bit more expose on KILBEGGAN BLADE and BLACK APALACHI would be welcome here I think. How badly treated is BLACK APALCHI compared with his Becher’s win? How significant is his national run last year? Can KILBEGGAN BLADE compete if we just get G/S? Can GARDE CHAMPETRE really win? Over the whole forum have we got a definitive list of say 12 horses that can win this year? Is it longer than that? There was a call for top three selections but can we have a run of replies with our top six so we can build a definitive list of the one’s that really might win.
My six:
BUTLERS
RAMBLING
GARDE
KILBEGGAN
APALACHI
VIC
#789
February 25th, 2009 19:25
My only problem with doing that Rascal is that I probably only have 3 horses I would be confident in backing now. However I have several horses that if they doing something in their next run would come straight into reckoning. Therefore I find it difficult to post who can and can’t win before they have finished their preperation or before weights rise/stay the same.
Three at the moment would be Rambo, L’ami and Garde Champetre. With anywhere between 6 and 15 coming into it depending on their next run.
Ells
1
#790
February 25th, 2009 20:10
A fair point but i don’t think any of us are prepared to say anything definite yet so i am looking for our feb/march predictions. i think it helps for future years.
#791
February 25th, 2009 20:33
Agree Lough, but had a go just to try and see where I am if it was run tomorrow…
Rambo
Garde Champ
Black Apalachi
Cornish Sett
loyally and happily sticking by my anteposts!
so thats 4 already, think I can do 8! if I rule as actually more likely to WIN rather than nearly win, although I like to get the placers too, Brooklyn would be my chancer this year, but hey to seriously win
Miko- for ‘biggest weighted’ winner would consider possible upto 11-03, backers just have to hope he stands up and jockey glued on, haa ha.
My will- safe class jumper, can win if weights go up no more than 4lb
Comply- think he could manage to win with 11-01 so thats just 3lb rise, oh. Awaiting blinkered triumphant comeback hoping it proves he’s not another horse finished by this race and we can have a fairytale showdown finish between him and Rambo!)
if weights go up more than 5lb my one against the field would be
L’Ami- finally and sucessfully operated to seperate him from Mon Mome
#792
February 25th, 2009 20:40
You should get an award for that Rascal!
My top 6:-
Rambling Minster
State of Play
Black Apalachi
Garde Champetre
Parsons Legacy
Himalayan Trail
I will be taking another look at Kilbeggan following your commentary, as I can’t quite recall why I put a line thru him.
#793
February 25th, 2009 20:42
RE Rambling Minster, Garde Champetre and Kilbeggan Blade….. are any of you guys worried that some of these frequently mentioned/fancied horses might just not get a run in the race?
Rambling Minster is currently position 50 but because of his current OR if it came to a ballot between those given a weight of 10-01 he would be first in so it would make him no 47 at the present time(i would have thought he would get in)
Garde Champetre is currently position 54, he would obviously need 15 to come out to get a run. (personally i think this may be a bit tight)
Kilbeggan Blade is no 56 and once again i would have thought this is touch and go.
In the case of the last 2 I think it is a lot to ask for around a 3rd of the 53 runners above them to be withdrawn between now and race day.
Also i have been looking at the likely hood of Excotic dancer running or being withdrawn and their being a hike in the weights…..well i found this in Phil Smith’s blog and i just think they might let him take his chance.
Phil says……”Exotic Dancer was top weight in 2007 although he didn’t run. Since then he had been 2nd in the Gold Cup and won two Grade 1 Chases. I was hoping that the new top weight of 11st. 10lbs. (down 2 lbs. from last year and down 4lbs. since 2000) would tempt connections to run him this time. I decided to let him run off a rating of 166 compared with his normal rating of 174.
On average the winner of a Handicap chase goes up 8lbs. so my thinking was that if he ran off 166 then he could win if he ran to his best of 174. If I made him run off 174 then he would have to perform to 182 to win the Grand National which considering it is over a mile further than he had ever run before, I considered unlikely.”
#794
February 25th, 2009 21:01
Still think regardless of the FR by his name Mon Mome has it all to do off a 7lb higher mark than last year – was well beaten last year as was Cornish Sett who’s got 4lb more (and he’d already had the operation BEFORE last year’s race)
One that does interest me again is Snowy Morning if weights stay the same (but need to wait until race) – clearly liked Aintree and on best behaviour last year when jumped very well and ran better in this year’s Bobbyjo than last year’s
#795
February 25th, 2009 21:13
Ones at the top I can see missing the race:
Star De Mohaison – trainer not bullish on weights day
Afistfullofdollars – trainer not bullish on weights day
Imperial Commander – too far for this one?
Stan – trainer not bullish on weights day
One Cool Cookie – 760 on Betfair
Eurotrek – over 2 years since last run
That’s six out of the way BEFORE Cheltenham so I’d say Rambo, GC & KB get in
#796
February 25th, 2009 21:15
Sorry almost 2 years for Eurotrek
#797
February 25th, 2009 21:17
And Monkeyhostin
#798
February 25th, 2009 21:59
Puzzled Top 70 at first issue of weights is normally a safe bet to get in. On that day no.70 was Arteea. He is now no.63. Kilbeggan and Garde should be fine
at no’s 54 & 56.
As should Character no.58 and Himalayan no.60.
#799
February 25th, 2009 22:59
I think Eurotrek will run. Nicholls seemed pretty keen on weights day and its pretty much his last chance. We shall see.
Ells
1
#800
February 25th, 2009 23:03
Rascal that was amazing!! Thanks
btw Silver Birch never won 4 races year before he won, did he?
#801
February 25th, 2009 23:03
preists leap been hammered on betfair today
#802
February 25th, 2009 23:43
i noticed that J RAMBO,but also spotted today on gg.com that his trainer was being very bullish in interview about his chances.this could be reason.think it was wacky who first mentioned him a while back.cant remember why he was disgarded thou.
#803
February 25th, 2009 23:56
Great post Rascal! You ask for more expose on Kilbeggan blade so here goes. I backed it at small stakes a few weeks ago before doing my research properly:
WEIGHT
not a problem in National terms. Will be one of the most lightly weighted runners in the field and OR is only 4 pounds higher than last chase win
QUICKER GOING
Has only run 5 times on going which was good or g/f:
Grade 3 – 4m1f – Pulled Up
Class 2 – 3m2f – beaten 37 lengths
Class 4 – 3m2f – beaten 41 lengths
Class 3 – 3m – beaten 12 lengths
Class 4 – 3m – beaten 1 length
That doesn’t make great reading
CLASS
Problem isn’t just that he hasn’t been placed in a class 1 chase. The key stat is that he has run 3 times in Class 1 company in handicap chases over 3m and has actually pulled up on each occasion. It’s not liked he was a rank outsider each time either:
19 April 08 – 24 runners – 25/1
12 January 08 – 13 runners – 12/1
17 February 07 – 16 runners – 6/1
These stats worry me greatly!!
Will get back to you guys tomorrow with my top 6. In order to formulate one, some stat or other will have to be broken. Most likely to be the french bred one but not finished my study yet. The French Bred stat must be respected by all, but no one can tell me that a horse such as L’Aventure doesn’t stay when she’s in the mood!
#804
February 26th, 2009 00:07
top 6;
RAMBO
GARDE CHAMPETRE
big gap…
MIKO DE BEAUCHENE
COMPLY OR DIE
SNOWY MORNING
BUTLERS CABIN (no value)
#805
February 26th, 2009 00:26
Excellent post rascal,cant wait for the real thing.
Anybody notice that himalayan trail also been backed on betfair from an high of 64 after sunday back to 39,i know on the face of it sunday didn’t look good,however there is still time for another run and i really felt they were laying this horse out for the grand national and they wont use trends to prepare the horse, and isnt far off meeting the trends needed to qualify.trainer meets trends after sucessfully plotting path to aintree already with monty’s pass,anybody with any opinions ?.
#806
February 26th, 2009 00:42
speedyseagull
that is the missing link on KB – class
i dismissed this one then had a rethink because it came out quite well on some criteria but you are right it doesn’t have the class – KB dismissed again
#807
February 26th, 2009 06:58
re – Himalayan Trail
No chance unless 1st,2nd or 3rd in another prep run. 6 runs already -2 Pu’s on Hy. but was 5th. in becher on Hy. beaten 98L.,last race shocking. Only 8 chase runs but has the important 3 wins. Good chase strike rate 50% but shocking life strike rate of 31%. Perhaps the Midland GN was a flash in the pan, 9st-9lb and – 5lb off.
Needs another prep run to turn things about.
re – Kilbeggan Blade
Very interesting wee horse. Gave our No.1 horse – Rambling Minster – 7lbs. and a 4&1/2 length beating in Dec. San. 30gs. – A.P. did help. KB had only 1 prep run for that race but RM had 2. Now looks good inlight of what RM has done – yes. His 3 C1 failures is a worry – 2Hy. and 1G (which was in the Scot.Nat.but many good horses have failed in that race.). His 3 prep wins is also a worry but he has 1 more lined up and if he was placed it would take the shine of those. His last 4 wins have been on right handed tracks but he has won a few on left handed. I think last year he was giving 10st.4lb.
#808
February 26th, 2009 09:21
I wouldn’t rule out either KB or Rambo based solely on their number of wins this season
I really do not understand how the number of prep wins can have any bearing on a horse’s chances in the Grand National except where a horse:
1) runs up a sequence over fences prior to the weights being published and thereby runs off a very high mark negating its chances when it could have been run over hurdles or run less frequently to protect its mark
2) wins at Cheltenham (or afterwards) and has had a really hard race
Kilbeggan Blade
This horse was rated 137 before its Sandown win – if it hadn’t have won that day and had kept the same rating it would have been allotted 9’9 in the GN – thereby ruling it out of the race in all likelihood
Both its other wins have come over hurdles which have no bearing whatsoever on its chase mark
Rambling Minster
This horse was rated 135 before its Cheltenham win – if it hadn’t have won that day and had kept the same rating it would have allotted 9’7 in the GN – even less chance of making the race
The Haydock win was after the weights had been published and therefore all it did was prove Rambo’s wellbeing
From recent memory both Hedgehunter and Comply Or Die won after the weights had been published on their last outing before their GN success with, shock horror, their best performance of the season – again not a negative.
Therefore in some circumstances this number of wins thing can be a negative, and is a strong argument for some trainers to keep there horse’s mark in the 140s for example, but is clearly not a negative in the cases of KB and Rambo – all things equal both will turn up to Aintree comparatively fresh and in good form
Whether either one is good enough remains to be seen
#809
February 26th, 2009 09:41
Come on Pablo, lets have a bit of balance on Cornish Sett/ Snowy Morning. Cornish Sett is rated 4lbs higher than last year, I’d say that was very minimal considering he’ll actually be running on a very handy weight, anything between 10-4/10-10, and he has won Badger Ales and finished 2nd in Welsh Grand National this season. Snowy is on a mark of 11lbs more than last year and hasn’t won one of his last ten chases, a 27/27 – 32/33 trend. Cornish is actually 7lbs better off than their comparative weights last year.
Grand National urban myth no. 101/ unplaced horses come back to win. In the last 32 years two winners that had been previously unplaced came back to win- Rag Trade and Little Polveir which is incidentally, the same number of GN winners who have worn blinkers in the same period, Earth Summit and Comply Or Die.
#810
February 26th, 2009 10:02
Crisp – last two times Snowy Morning has run on Good ground was 3rd in GN (Cornish Sett beaten out of sight after breathing op) and 2nd to Neptune Collonges at Punchestown (excellent form)
Near his best I think Snowy Morning is well capable of giving Cornish Sett 12lb and the indications are that he enjoyed himself at Aintree last year – but true he hasn’t shown much form recently but at least his last run was better than anything else this season
If the weights go up by more than 5 lbs then I’d say his chance goes with it
#811
February 26th, 2009 11:23
Victor Chandler offering 25/1 on Rambling Minster and 40/1 on Garde Champetre.
Last chance at these prices ladies and gents…
#812
February 26th, 2009 11:39
Yer Gammer noticed that too…
Filled up for a friend on Rambo and for myself (whether to stick or lay, haven’t decided yet) on Garde.
What a VC market move, eh?…’Ye, let’s move 2 of the best stats horses out in the market’, ha ha.
But thanks VC
#813
February 26th, 2009 11:39
Ha ha back into 20s and 33s lol
#814
February 26th, 2009 12:09
VC take an opinion and stand out price… for 5 minutes LOL.
#815
February 26th, 2009 12:14
any of those bookies step out of line…
hammer them back into the herd
#816
February 26th, 2009 13:49
A while ago I had a feeling an 11yr old would win this year!.. still can’t pick the winner if it was just left to them!
Rambo won his race after this thought,(yes I backed him in that race because of it) but when you look at the race KB won, if Rambo turns up in that sort of mood what other 11yr old would win?.. Knowhere? I’m not into Parsons one of those horses I’ve always resisted for some reason!
#817
February 26th, 2009 13:51
Just had a quick look at the top of this thread at Daniel’s first post on the subject. I quote one part of it “Personally I would
say a horse needs to have had his last run within a period of 14-49 days (or 2 -7 weeks) before the national.”
Where does this leave Rambo? That must be close if he doesn’t run again now (as is thought) between his Haydock win and the big day.
Personally it’s not a stat I’ve taken much notice of myself previously. Of more concern to me is to avoid anything that ran at Cheltenham. HOWEVER, I did back Silver Birch!!!! I had it ante post though before his Cheltenham run which was lucky for me! The only problem was I never got stuck into it again after Cheltenham.
#818
February 26th, 2009 13:59
Looking at who might defect from the big race soon – I had a look at the current exchange prices for the following :- all trading between 178-1 and 769-1 on betfair seemingly suggesting that they may be pulled – good news for Rambo, GC, CB, SV, HW, KB etc :-
Star de Mohaison (354), A fistfullofdollars (209), Imperial Commander (209), Monkerhostin (279), One Cool Cookie (769), Ballyfitz (299 – drifted considerably in last few days), L’Antartique (309), Opera Mundi (359), Fleet Street (179), Silverburn (379.
Looking promising for the preferred selections on this site.
#819
February 26th, 2009 14:00
comply or die your thoughts…..could have carried 7lbs more last year and still won, clearly took to the fences, only one slight error, must be on short list!!
Ok, lack of form, but that could change on saturday, and blinkers could be back on, just have a feeling that the yard are protecting its mark and chances, but surley a horse from the pipe yard will be 110% fit come the big day!
#820
February 26th, 2009 14:06
I think it is very possible cloudy lane will be top weight as time goes on, which means weights rise 8lb! would make final selections easier, ain’t gonna happen til after cheltenham tho. Is a Kilbeggan Blade an irish type of plough incidentily!!! how appropriate hee, hee
#821
February 26th, 2009 14:18
Indeed kj, you could quite easily eliminate everthying above BC following the 11st rule – would really have to lump on GC and Rambo some more then
#822
February 26th, 2009 14:21
Ranbling Minster’s last run will be 49 days before the National, so not really a problem.
That is my number 6 stat in terms of importance, this year at least, behind C1 Chase place over 24f or more.
As somebody else has already alluded to, with all the cancellations due to the bad weather this year, and several fancied horses going well fresh, that could be the stat that tumbles this year…
#823
February 26th, 2009 16:16
Irish Invader threw his hat into the John Smith’s Grand National picture with an all-the-way success in the Cashel Chase at Thurles.
The eight-year-old is trained by Willie Mullins, who won with all three of his runners at Downpatrick on Wednesday and was taking his total to 17 in the last fortnight with this success.
Irish Invader (9-4) made all under Paul Townend in beating Carthalawn by four and a half lengths to bring up his hat-trick, and now has Aintree as his aim, for which he has been allotted 10st 1lb.
“That was a super ride by Paul, he took the initiative right from the start and jumped from fence to fence,” said Mullins.
“I’m having serious thoughts about going for the Aintree National. We’ve been making plenty of use of him over shorter trips but we could put him to sleep there and he jumps so well.
“That’s Plan A at the moment.”
#824
February 26th, 2009 17:19
Irish Invader has good staying genes on the dam side – Busted
Since 1990 Busted appears as a sire influence for:
Seagram
Rough Quest
Bobbyjo
Numbersixvalverde
Silver Birch
Apart from Silver Birch he also appears on the sire side for:
War Of Attrition (also Strong Gale on dam side – might negate)
Ballyfitz
Eurotrek
Fundamentalist
Silverburn
Always Waining
Brooklyn Brownie
Himalayan Trail
#825
February 26th, 2009 17:22
II into 64-1 from 80-1 within the last hour on betfair
#826
February 26th, 2009 17:25
Worth a speculative ew quid I think, although he’s not yet placed in a C1 race over 3 miles or more.
#827
February 26th, 2009 17:29
And Simon and Can’t Buy Time
#828
February 26th, 2009 17:35
Ive posted my thoughts on Cant Buy Time on the other thread
#829
February 26th, 2009 17:44
Was HT running today?
#830
February 26th, 2009 18:03
HT as in Himalayan Trail, wasn’t he meant to be running today?
Also Hot Weld is said to be running this week, anyone know where and time?
#831
February 26th, 2009 18:23
hot weld entered on 10th march at chelt.
#832
February 26th, 2009 19:11
Thx Dragon, Brian you thought HT was running today, ye?
#833
February 26th, 2009 19:34
HT was down to run at Thurles today but seems to have been withdrawn or it was an error on Sporting Life who had him on the card originally and then withdrawn at overnight decs.
#834
February 26th, 2009 20:03
hi been reading all the comments with interest. just got a question to ask though.
A horse that wins the national is usually a class horse that has sneaked into the race with under 11 stone on its back i.e comply or die. or a class horse in the past thats come back into form i.e silver birch or a horse that has always had the national as its aim and any other form is just to prepare it for this race. hedgehunter, numbersixvalverde. my point is should we be looking at horses that don’t even qualify for the race unless better horses drop out i.e rambling minster. surel the winner is in amongst the runners as it stands ?
#835
February 26th, 2009 20:17
Just to clarify my point
Does anyone know how many winners out the last 20 years did not qualify for the race outright ?
#836
February 26th, 2009 21:48
“J Rambo Says:
February 26th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
Irish Invader threw his hat into the John Smith’s Grand National picture with an all-the-way success in the Cashel Chase at Thurles”.
Reply:
Straws, sraws and more straws.
Aged 8 (very poor record)
Never won a chase at 24f or more!!!
Not placed (1/2/3)in a chase at 25f or more this season
Best RPR 146 (a bit on the low side unless better today).
Conclusion:
It wont win the GN
#837
February 26th, 2009 22:07
Superwinger –
Thats a question and a half.
Can only give you information on the last 2 winners.
C.O.D. needed 19 better horses to drop out, infact 26 or so did.
Silver Birch needed 14 or so to drop out and again 24 or so did.
Sorry, thats it.
#838
February 26th, 2009 22:11
SYSTEMS MAN i really agree with you about irish invader (i think),however can a share with you something i have heard from ireland.i am not trying to say i have inside imfo. because i aint.however my wife comes from ireland and we obviously know people and relatives over there and have on occassions had good tips.i heard a while back that mullins was laying one out for the gn.which i assumed was snowy again.recently not quite being able to get quite enough imfo,i was lead to beleive it wasn’t “the obvious” to quote.i have had a conversation pm. following ii win today and told the distance is no problem and the trainer is very keen.it has been running at shorter distances we all know than what we all look for but was told that is deliberate and to get on.as i say i am not in the know but only what i was told so make of it what you will.could this be the one from ireland that has got under the radar?
#839
February 26th, 2009 22:38
Relooking at my longer pre-christmas winners profile list (it time to re check everything while things are quiet).
I will post the reults sson.
The only new event is that L’ami is still in the tends but currently the price is to high (must be 33/1 or lower by GN day) and I think its had its chance anyway in the past.
The current top trends runners ar all coming uo again and again each time I run different sets of winners profiles etc over them. They are posted already but i will do a post when my work is completed (I will also look at a few ouside my Xmas trends that have ben mentioned like Mon Mome, BROOKLYN BROWNIE) etc.
I have started to use my “secret black book GN winners profile” [its kept in a glass case with an inscription over it that says "only unlock when desperate"} to double check so we should have a very good short list soon.
Worried about Rambo's % placed profile (40% 1/2/3 in Chases, 2% below the normal minimum [and most GN winners have 50% or better] any views? – can anyone calm my nerves on this issue?
#840
February 26th, 2009 22:47
ryme no reason (I get the last bit)
“and we obviously know people and relatives over there and have on occassions had good tips.i heard a while back that mullins was laying one out for the gn.which i assumed was snowy again.recently not quite being able to get quite enough imfo,i was lead to beleive it wasn’t “the obvious” to quote. etc”
Reply:
Garde Champetre is normely ridden by a jockey called Nina – now its strange but true that my daughter is called Nina (really)- so it must have as much chance as Irish Invader who has never won over 3miles let alone 41/2 miles!!!
Dont tell anyone but the word has it from Ireland that JP Mcmanus and Tony McCoy are desperate to win the GN this year so have BC as your back up.
We could go on!
(dont take this too serious its done to lighten things up a bit)
#841
February 27th, 2009 01:30
I believe we were posting top 6 current chances the other day. Mine are as follows. Apart from Rambling, the trends seem to be going out of the windown this year (not intentionally!):
Rambling Minster
Notre Pere
Black Apalachi
Irish Invader
Kilbeggan Blade
Garde Champetre
And 7th is Brooklyn Brownie who will swap places with one of these if the weights rise rapidly
#842
February 27th, 2009 11:14
What does anyone else make of Rambling Minsters Spring form. It keeps niggling away at me now that it doesn’t look that good.
Im hoping this is just pre-national jitters as im heavily on this horse but cant get it out of my mind.
Will post my top 6 list soon just need to get it down from the list of 10 i have.
#843
February 27th, 2009 11:37
Taken another look at Irish Invader – its the sort of runner that can easily attract you at this stage but fails on many counts.
New RPR best of 149 (winnable)
TS best 138 (winnable)
Placed % in Chases 75% – very good
Last six wins over:
18f (newest)
18f
17f
16f
16f (oldest)
Can yousee a probem here (nothing near evn 3 miles)
Last runs over 22 or more
24f Fell
22f 10/22
25f 6/14
24f 3/14 Hurdle
24f 1/13 Nov Hurdle
24f 6/18 Nov Han Hurdle
Not so good is it (never been placed in a chase at 24f or more let alone win) other than the one win over 24f in a Nov Hurdle (June 2007)?
Has not placed in a Classs 1 (G1/G2) Chase.
I just cant see it winning and you would be better off putting your money on Rambo/BC/GC/KB.
For me the big unknowns are:
State of Play – what weight will he carry?
Darkness – will he win a prep race? (getting very late)
Butlers Cabin – will he get a 1/2/3 at 25f or more prior to GN???? (if he does he will be Fav for the GN I think)-if he dosnt he’s doomed!!
#844
February 27th, 2009 12:07
It still bugs me that Kilbeggan Blade beat Rambo by 4 1/2 lengths over 3 1/2m, and RAMBO giving him 4lbs!!!
Is Rambo good enough to actually win this? It is niggling at me, that we are missing a real classy horse that doesnt quite fit other trends. Ideas:
WAR OF ATTRITION
HOT WELD
SNOWY MORNING
STATE OF PLAY
HEAR THE ECHO
#845
February 27th, 2009 12:25
All the main fancies booked runs between now and April 4th (although plans can and do change):
Black Apalachi – None
Butlers Cabin
16:40 Thu 12th Mar Cheltenham 3m 1f 110y 2
16:00 Tue 10th Mar Cheltenham 3m 7f 2
14:05 Thu 12th Mar Cheltenham 3m 1
Rambling Minster – None
Comply Or Die
15:25 Sat 28th Feb Doncaster 3m 2f 2
14:40 Tue 10th Mar Cheltenham 3m 110y 1
Hear The Echo
14:40 Tue 10th Mar Cheltenham 3m 110y 1
Snowy Morning
15:20 Fri 13th Mar Cheltenham 3m 2f 110y 1
14:40 Thu 12th Mar Cheltenham 2m 5f 1
Cloudy Lane
15:25 Sat 28th Feb Doncaster 3m 2f 2
15:35 Sat 28th Feb Kelso 2m 6f 110y 2
14:40 Tue 10th Mar Cheltenham 3m 110y 1
Notre Pere
15:20 Fri 13th Mar Cheltenham 3m 2f 110y 1
Southern Vic – None
Simon
14:40 Tue 10th Mar Cheltenham 3m 110y 1
State Of Play
14:40 Thu 12th Mar Cheltenham 2m 5f 1
15:20 Fri 13th Mar Cheltenham 3m 2f 110y 1
Kilbeggan Blade – None
Garde Champetre
16:00 Tue 10th Mar Cheltenham 3m 7f 2
Himalayan Trail – None
King Johns Castle – None
War Of Attrition
15:20 Fri 13th Mar Cheltenham 3m 2f 110y 1
Character Building
14:40 Tue 10th Mar Cheltenham 3m 110y 1
16:40 Thu 12th Mar Cheltenham 3m 1f 110y 2
Hot Weld
14:40 Tue 10th Mar Cheltenham 3m 110y 1
Parsons Legacy – None!!!
Miko De Beauchene
15:20 Fri 13th Mar Cheltenham 3m 2f 110y 1
Mon Mome
14:40 Tue 10th Mar Cheltenham 3m 110y 1
Irish Invader – None
LAmi
16:00 Tue 10th Mar Cheltenham 3m 7f 2
Cornish Sett – None
Silver Birch
16:00 Tue 10th Mar Cheltenham 3m 7f 2
#846
February 27th, 2009 12:42
Russell Says:
February 27th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
It still bugs me that Kilbeggan Blade beat Rambo by 4 1/2 lengths over 3 1/2m, and RAMBO giving him 4lbs!!!
Is Rambo good enough to actually win this? It is niggling at me, that we are missing a real classy horse that doesnt quite fit other trends. Ideas:
WAR OF ATTRITION
HOT WELD
SNOWY MORNING
STATE OF PLAY
HEAR THE ECHO
Why did you have to go and say that Russell!!
I agree with you though. I certainly wont be having all my eggs in a Rambling Minster shaped basket on race day.
I am very interested in State of Play as the one who doesnt fit the trends
#847
February 27th, 2009 13:06
If state of Play rus in the ryanair chase (or not at all) rather than the Gold cup then this one could well be the one to beat, providing weights don’t rise too much, which i don’t think they will.
All i need to work out now is 33′s a big enough price to take the gamble of him swerving the gold cup!!!
Another one im waiting on for its next race is My Will.
What does anyone else think about My Will apart from it only having 1 prep race so far
#848
February 27th, 2009 13:22
My Will is another classy one that has slipped down the weights due to a period of inactivity.
I think there is a lot of question marks with him though, the main one being is he an out and out stayer? I dont think at 20/1 he makes much appeal now.
#849
February 27th, 2009 13:26
Comply or Die and Idle Talk go for the Grimthorpe at the weekend, Darkness and Cloudy Lane give it a swerve.
#850
February 27th, 2009 13:57
RAMBLING MINSTER OUT FOR THE SEASON
Just heard on the news wires that Rambling Minster has picked up a tendon injury and is out for the rest of the season. Trainer and owner gutted. What a disaster for all of those ante post wagers.
#851
February 27th, 2009 14:12
Great List Brody – thanks!
Can you extend it a bit to include the likes of Reveillez, Brooklyn, Fundamentalist etc
Thanks in advance
#852
February 27th, 2009 14:13
Brian u thought HT was running yest, any idea when he is due to?
#853
February 27th, 2009 14:13
good day all.
sorry if already been posted,but just update on national runners engaged this weekend.
cloudy lane goes to kelso for 2m 6f.t.sport.com prem chase on sat.4 runners.class 2 12.5k.
darkness goes to newbury for 2.35.vets h/c chase on sat.8 runners.15.655k.class 2.
king johns castle was down to run 2m hurdle sat 2.15 at navan,but not dec.
you know about grimthorpe runners.
hope may help.
im watching darkness,intresting to see how goes.
#854
February 27th, 2009 14:16
State of play is certainly classy – quality performance in at Hennessy – the point about him running well fresh needs to be taken into account against the lack of runs prior to the big one – even if the weights rise, he will still more than likely get in under the 11st barrier and must be considered in my view – Evan Williams believes the National is made for him
#855
February 27th, 2009 14:22
My view on the Rambo v KB clash is that last time they met this was over 3m 5f and Rambo seems to improve for going up in distance. I thought his Haydock performance was a career best and he appears to be having a right old indian summer – Reveley says he will definitely get the trip – have to believe that the further 4 furlongs could bring about even more improvement – if he was from a fashionable stable, he would be much shorter in the market and still represents the best value for me
#856
February 27th, 2009 14:26
Hot Weld into 35-1 from 60-1 in the last 24 hours – hard to see why on last time out’s performance – shocking
#857
February 27th, 2009 14:28
also on newbury card,3.10
2m 4f 30k class 1 chase.17 run.
reveillez,stan,fundementalist,
will be checking out reveillez witn intrest.
#858
February 27th, 2009 15:00
Just seen the message ‘RAMBLING MINISTER OUT FOR THE SEASON’ posted here but can’t see anything about that on RacingPost.com, Attheraces.com or Sportinglife.com.
Anyone know anything about this? It would be bad news for lots of us on here if it is right.
#859
February 27th, 2009 15:04
Well the last winner to enjoy along holiday before GN day was, still subject to research, Specify in 1971. I make it that he had a gap of 84 days, 12 weeks, between his last prep, 9th Jan, until winning GN on 3rd April. Interesting though he had still managed 5 prep runs that season.
Just to catch up on length of some popular long term trends;
8-12 yr olds winning GN, 62/62
weight carried by winner,11st 1lbs or less, 24/24 – 11st 5lbs or less, 30/30
4-6 prep runs, 14/14 – 2-7 prep runs, 18/18 – 2-8 pr, 24/24
2-7 weeks since last prep run, 24/24 – 2-8 weeks, 36/36
top 3 place in C1 chase, 23/23
a win in last ten chases, 27/27
#860
February 27th, 2009 16:02
Crisp, excellent work as usual. I was wondering how long back the ‘days since last run’ one went, so thanks a million.
#861
February 27th, 2009 16:54
I’ve noticed in the cross-country at cheltenham L’ami is carrying 4lb less than Garde Champetre but 3lb more in national,a pull of 7lbs,not bad!.
I was also at first very put off by the thought of a female jockey on board garde and was hoping they’d replace her with JT McNamara-the stables 1st choice jockey-but now i’m not so sure.If you look at all her previous rides aboard she’s put in almost faultless performances,i’d say she deserves the chance
#862
February 27th, 2009 17:14
Showlad, HT was down to run yesterday on the ladbrokes-teamtalk website although it looks like this was an oversight and had been left in for the overnight dec’s as someone has already stated.
Not sure when HT is next due a run as i normally only find out within 5 days of the race happening.
If i get notification of him being in the 5 day dec’s stage of any race i will let you know as when i looked on Racing post there was no entries (apart from GN) against him
#863
February 27th, 2009 17:17
Nothing wrong with Nina – she can give the boys a run for their money – look over her past performances at Cheltenham – had a few winners in decent races – obviously respected as JP wouldn’t have her aboard with no faith in her abilities – she has already completed the course also and the genes are there, her father and brother won the race in 1999 wiht Bobbyjo, good omen? A national winner always has a story don’t they?
#864
February 27th, 2009 17:42
Rambling Minster; I think there’s always a doubt. I’ve backed it but I’ve got my doubts about how good he is but he’s gone and won a C1 over 28f. He can’t do any more. As for aspects of is form, he’s done good things(as I’ve said before look at Tommy Whittle chase) The way I look at you could run these chases over 28f or more five times in exactly the same conditons and easily get five different results. This isn’t flat racing or poncing about over 3 miles at Kempton!! These distances are awesome.
For what it’s worth in recent years the winners have been proven in those ‘winner profile’ races. Those like State Of Play, Mon Mome, Butlers Cabin, L’Ami and Cornish Sett who also have excellent current trends might have the upper hand come the day, but the Rumbling Monster will ramble a big one!
#865
February 27th, 2009 17:55
The following horses currently in the top fourty have odds over 100-1 on Betfair and could possibly withdraw before the big day: SNOOPY LOOPY, NOZIC, AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS, IMPERIAL COMMANDER, MONKERHOSTIN, OLLIE MAGERN, STAN, ONE COOL COOKIE, BALLYFITZ, EUROTREK, L’ANTARTIQUE, OPERA MUNDI, HOBBS HILL, REVEILLEZ and FUNDAMENTALIST. I seriously doubt the involvement of EXOTIC DANCER, MADISON DU BERLAIS and STAR DE MOHAISON which leaves the final fourty looking like this (MUSICA BELLA and SILVERBURN also eliminated):
NOTRE PERE (FR) 8-11-10
CLOUDY LANE 9-11-08
WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-07
CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 9-11-06
SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-06
KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-11-05
ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-11-05
COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-11-04
BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-11-03
HEAR THE ECHO (IRE) 8-11-03
PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-11-03
KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 10-11-02
MIKO DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 9-11-02
MY WILL (FR) 9-11-02
STATE OF PLAY 9-11-01
BIG FELLA THANKS 7-11-00
MON MOME (FR) 9-10-12
SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-12
BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-11
OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 9-10-11
PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-10
GOLDEN FLIGHT (FR) 10-10-09
L’AMI (FR) 10-10-09
SIMON 10-10-09
BATTLECRY 8-10-08
CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-08
FLEET STREET 10-10-08
CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-07
DARKNESS 10-10-07
IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-07
RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-07
SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-07
ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-06
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-06
HOT WELD 10-10-05
KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-10-05
BROOKLYN BROWNIE (IRE) 10-10-05
CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-10-05
CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 10-10-05
HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-10-05
Of course if this works out as above I would demand a knighthood but I wouldn’t want to be backing anyone not in the above list at this stage.
#866
February 27th, 2009 18:11
Just to throw the cat amongst the pidgeons!
SINCE 1994 and Miinnehoma’s win, the only 11 year old to win the Grand National was Red Marauder. If we discount that as a fluke result (as most do) then no 11 year old has won since 1994.
Rambling Minster is 11.
Now, im not saying I agree with that, but if people say they have an issue with backing 8 year olds (last winner Bindaree in 2002, no other winner since 1992) then surely there is also an issue with 11 year olds (and 12 year olds for that matter) 10/13 winners have been 9/10 and the last 4 have all been 9/10 as have 5 of the last 6.
#867
February 27th, 2009 18:33
Get that cat away…
We have been sticking to the age range of 8-12 throughtout our debate. If you start tweaking stats that have been used you will probably end up with a grand total of 0 horses that fit the stats.
#868
February 27th, 2009 18:44
Bet this thread won’t have anywhere near the amount of comments if BIG FELLA THANKS wins this year
#869
February 27th, 2009 18:47
Rascal writes:
Bet this thread won’t have anywhere near the amount of comments if BIG FELLA THANKS wins this year.
Don’t think you need have any fears that will happen Rascal.
#870
February 27th, 2009 18:58
Thx Crisp – great post. Brian – Cheers.
4 eight or eleven year old winners in last 17 years = 24% – that is FAR too large a figure to discount and narrow to 9/10 year olds (never mind the 12 year old winners).
8 – 12 stat of course stays
#871
February 28th, 2009 02:06
Just as a matter of interest, I have applied the key stats to the Gold Cup Handicap at Newbury this afternoon.
The key stats are as follows:
12/12 has run within the last 2 months
11/12 had a top four placing LTO
11/12 had won a Class Chase or Higher.
11/12 were 12/1 or shorter in the market
9 of the last ten were Irish or Frnech bred.
Based on these stats, the stand-out horse is HOLD EM.
#872
February 28th, 2009 02:07
Apologies for one of the above stats!
It should read
11/12 had won a Class 3 Chase or higher.
#873
February 28th, 2009 11:32
Will Drakness win today 2.30 Newbury? Its anyones guess (but in with a very good chance at a good price). If he wins he will confirm my pre-christmas GN winners profile but he will still not fit Stephen’s GN winners profile (placed Wel Nat, Scot Nat, 1-5 Hennesssy etc etc) 3rd in Sun Alliance Chase though – price will drop bigtime if he wins.
Cloudy Lane runs at 3.35 Kelso and it most likely to win this 2m 6f race (more vunerable at this distance but his class should see him through)- odds on to win. Will not change GN picture as is likely to be top weight on the day.
Best bet (safest)today Lake Legend 14.25 Doncaster.
#874
February 28th, 2009 11:49
Fancy Darkness today, backed in a double with Rambo at over 100/1. If Darkness wins today, I’ll stop backing Rambo. Value may have gone for today’s race though.
#875
February 28th, 2009 14:42
Posted up and edited Dan’s list for today’s runners. Been away for couple days so if it’s changed again, let me know.
SATURDAY:-
Cloudy Lane – Kelso – 3.35 AND Doncaster (Grimthorpe) 3.25
Comply or Die – Doncaster 3.25
Darkness – Newbury 2.35
Fundamentalist – Newbury 3.10
Hobbs Hill – Newbury 3.10
Idle Talk – Doncaster 3.25
Irish Raptor – Newbury 2.35
King Johns Castle – notlisted at Navan now
Stan – Newbury 3.10
Reveillez Newbury 3.10 now non runner
Let’s see how they get on today!
Of some of our fancies – C’mon Darkness, someone put in a decent prep run – our fancies poor prep form surely cannot continue, lol.
#876
February 28th, 2009 14:48
carried on prev list mistake, sorry, lol, of course raptor not in GN
#877
February 28th, 2009 15:12
Kelami in 2:20 at Kempton also. Just found it.
Ells
1
#878
February 28th, 2009 15:26
Thanks Lough updated
Kelami in 2:20 at Kempton
Cloudy Lane – Kelso – 3.35
Darkness – Newbury 2.35
Fundamentalist – Newbury 3.10
Hobbs Hill – Newbury 3.10
Idle Talk – Doncaster 3.25
Stan – Newbury 3.10
#879
February 28th, 2009 15:31
Kelami was looking excellent until finding bugger all in last half mile. If it wasnt scratched out already it is now. Huge market move on Darkness – into 2/1. I said on my big list that if it runs next time out then im putting a whole lot more on it. Appears as if its going to, although my moneys with yardbird.
Ells
1
#880
February 28th, 2009 15:42
Get in Darkness. 4/1 winner running on to Rambo!
#881
February 28th, 2009 15:44
At Bloody last – Darkness was superb!!
Not as good a jumper as RAMBO, but was champing at the bit with – this is the best bit – TONS OF ENERGY!!!!!!!!
Would still have had better of Raptor for me – looked to have lots more in tank before Raptor came down.
Well I had him at long odds – so at lil justification at last!!!
Will EASILY get the GN trip.
#882
February 28th, 2009 15:50
Absolutely, Irish Raptor wouldn’t have stayed with him and AP did well to stay on after that horrible fall, relief to see the jockey get up ok. I’m reconsidering laying off the rest of my Darkness money on Betfair, might just keep it running for a big win at long odds. It’s looking really good this year as BC and HTE were big winners and now Rambo and Darkness too with my stakes already covered thanks to Betfair profits.
#883
February 28th, 2009 15:54
Darkness may well get the trip certainly going to be helped with 10-01, but I don’t like his jumping
#884
February 28th, 2009 15:56
A couple of slightly dodgy jumps today but never fallen or U/R!
#885
February 28th, 2009 16:07
Well at long last – we have a new kid on the block who looks very very interesting… he reminded me a lot of bindaree .. chestnut with a big whiteface and travelled and jumped very well in the main. he seemed to bounce off that ground and did well to win so handsomely carring top weight . hes got to come into anyones reckoning off 10-1 in the nat and if mr egerton decides to run him i think this fella needs to go on the short list. i had been betting him before xmas and then stopped after the welsh nat performance but ive managed to get on at some tasty prices. my only gnawing concern is how we could cope in slightly softer ground and in a bigger field .. but id rather be with him than against him
Latest top list
1= Darkness
1= Rambling Minster
3 = Southern Vic
4 = State Of Play
5 = Garde Champetre
6 = Knowhere
7 = Miko De Beauchene
Fun Bet = Reveillez
#886
February 28th, 2009 16:11
true, he takes some semi calculated chances, not a bad jumper, would like it if he had been to aintree for a look really, would certainly end up with no finger nails if he runs for me!
#887
February 28th, 2009 16:16
Agree KJ. Obviously on my list and a nice winner, but he doesn’t dislodge Rambo at the top for me. Interested to see Cloudy later.
#888
February 28th, 2009 16:22
Sorry guys but don’t share your enthusiasm
+ve
Travelled well and got round
Looked at home on better ground
10’1 in GN
Formerly high-class novice
-ve
This was a Class 2 chase full of not very good horses
His jumping has always been erratic
His record in 20+ fields in 30f+ races is PP from two outings
His damsire is Strong Gale – no GN winners have been related to Strong Gale and no placed horses in the National in last ten years (haven’t checked before then)
The GN is another 10 furlongs than he went today – there is no way he will definitely stay the GN trip
Whereas Rambo beat Class 1 horses over further showing an awful lot more and has won over 4m and has Buckskin as his damsire (a GN winning sire)
Darkness is not for me
#889
February 28th, 2009 16:41
Will Darkness cope with the hurly burly of a 40-runner field in the Grand National?
From 17 races (hurdles and chases) he’s not won in a race of 14 runners or more.
13 runners or less – 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1
14 runners or more – 3 0 3 PU 3 PU
Big field experience is a must, especially if a horse is not used to Aintree’s fences. He could easily be spooked. I couldn’t back him with much confidence on that basis.
Darkness has got hallmarks of Bindaree and Numbersixvalverde about him though, and I think he would get the distance. Never fallen, but evidence that he’s not a fluent jumper.
I also notice his trainer Charlie Egerton had sufficient faith to throw him into the Scottish Grand National at the end of his debut chasing season in 2006 when he was pulled up when not doing nothing. Does anyone know why there was a 31-month break after that till last November?
#890
February 28th, 2009 16:42
Sorry…”when not doing nothing”….oh, you know what I meant!!
#891
February 28th, 2009 16:46
Kelami in 2:20 at Kempton – started well and faded to be unplaced
Cloudy Lane – Kelso – 3.35
Darkness – Newbury 2.35 Bags of energy if some worrying jumps, but showed tons of and great stamina injection when required
Fundamentalist – Newbury 3.10 Good progressive at end running on strongly, good sign for GN for this former Aintree winner. Today a VERY significant 6th
Hobbs Hill – Newbury 3.10 7th faded
Idle Talk – Doncaster 3.25 Decent 3rd
Stan – Newbury 3.10 – showed near end but couild not make it count when mattered – 5th
Showlad’s conclusions:
V poor 3rd of 4 for Cloudy.
Idle Talk decent 3rd, but not pushing through towards end so hardly a great pointer for GN.
Darkness – well done, though worrying at some jumps. In my ‘to be considered’ list, but not in very top list.
My BIG BIG point today guys – he has a great ratings: TS 148 RPR 163 OR 145. Superb 10′ 03 in GN, A winner at Aintree 4 months ago (20 lbs heavier than weighted at GN!!), Last time pulled up, but today a v progressive 6th and returning to form – guys watch out for FUNDAMENTALIST!!
#892
February 28th, 2009 16:47
Cloudy falls at the first. Doesn’t tell us much.
#893
February 28th, 2009 17:00
I think Out The Black could be the dark horse, haa haa.. thought I’d/ we’d missed something there when commentary said he was in the national! not going to get in he is way down the list somewhere!?! Think I would have prefered this guy to Darkness.
Fundamentalist another 11yr old! ran well and deserves a look, he is another out of Strong Gale I think though.
#894
February 28th, 2009 17:31
Rambo 16-1 with Magic Sign
Darkness into 33-1 with most, some go 40-1
#895
February 28th, 2009 17:46
I’m afraid I wasn’t impressed with Darkness at all guys. It may or may not have won if Irish Raptor hadn’t crashed out, but the jumping was poor. It can’t win a National with jumping like that. He was also niggled along a fair bit earlier in the race. Of course he is in a better position than he was before the race but not for me.
#896
February 28th, 2009 19:14
someone wrote here yesterday I think that they’d heard Rambling Minster was out with a tendon injury!?! was this just a rumour?
hope so because he is still the only really impressive winner recently and even if he doesn’t win… I want to see him try. Shame Comply or Die didn’t get a run today, last chance missed?
#897
February 28th, 2009 19:28
I bloody hope it was a rumour! He’s currently on 19.5 at Betfair so probably either a wild rumour or a malicious lie!!
#898
February 28th, 2009 19:32
Keith Reveley said Rambling Minster suffered over-reach after Haydock, don’t think this is anything major, trainer doesn’t think so. Just a minor muscle strain isn’t it.
#899
February 28th, 2009 19:35
I cant believe some of the over positive comments on Darkness.
Now to decare my hand – I have a 1/3 normal bet on him at Xmas at 50/1 so I was a possible fan until today!!
Bloody awful jumping and if that had been Aintree he would have fallen for sure (100% sure of that). Not sure either that he would have beaten Irish Rapter who was travelling well until he hit the fence.
This really was NO sort of prep race to give confidence (and I watched every second of it) – a NO hoper in my opinion but a possible for next year – needs lots more work for 2010 not 2009! Not a penny more of my money will go on this horse – it will fall if it runs in the GN.
Come on Rambo/BC/GC and KB!
#900
February 28th, 2009 19:35
I think this Darkness could be place material, but as Systems wisely said, ‘why clutch at straws’, we have a handful, so far, with good trends.
#901
February 28th, 2009 19:38
It was reported that Rambling Minster had a bit of heat in a tendon in December but he obviously recovered from it. I think if there was any perceived truth in any rumour over the last few days then the horse’s Betfair price would have taken a hit.
A training injury, illness or a slice of bad luck in running are the only things that can prevent Rambo finishing in the frame on April 4.
I think it’s encouraging that Ladbrokes trimmed the price today to 16/1.
#902
February 28th, 2009 19:39
RE RAMBO – Brody where did u get out for season news? It’s nowhere else to be seen? Anyone….?
#903
February 28th, 2009 19:45
#904
February 28th, 2009 19:50
So what do we deduce from that KJ? A Brody joke or what…
Ladbroke’s taken RAMBO into 14s!
Pls someone confirm he will be OK.
Big sign surely would have been if had drifted on BEtfair, but all is well.
Brody pls clarify…
#905
February 28th, 2009 20:16
Yeah guys, Keit Reveley had mentioned overstretch on Rambo after Haydock race but it was not a worry. Reveley quoted as chuffed with Rambo as recently as Wednesday after 1st withdrawal decs.
If any ‘news on the wires’ were even remotely credible he would have tumbled on Betfair.
Brody you really need to clarify your post.
Today into 16s on Lads (not 14s).
Go RAMBO!!!!
#906
February 28th, 2009 20:47
Time to fill up on Rambo at 20/1 while its still possible (come GN day we will all wish we had some still at that price)as so many possible “good things” have fallen away one by one. Whatever the amount you want to win take it now at 20/1 – ofcourse you need a few other runners to go with it.
I will be posting my latest short list very soon and the reasons why each is a good bet.
#907
February 28th, 2009 20:58
message to Brody – ha ha ha, he he he, you’re a laugh a month!
#908
February 28th, 2009 21:08
KB leathered today on betfair
#909
February 28th, 2009 23:36
some joke ey! not a nice way to finish my evening last night! not that I’m a big money better, no, but this scare made me realise how it’d be a poorer race this year without him! its nice to have a stand out exciting prospect, so if it was a joke… bad joke man! Brody I’m shocked if it was indeed you… you better hide
Theres no chance of Out the Black getting in with 9-02 is there? how many need to come out, well loads, whats the most the has ever come out? shame as he looked the type who’d go well,. and get this! 16months ago he had a heart op similar to Denmans, so that gives you hope for the horse (and fans)coming back to something like he was…
#910
March 1st, 2009 00:13
Well i managed to get special odds of 100/1 on Darkness winning today and going on to win the national, i had a tenner e.w………sure he won today but i was not impressed with his jumping if i am to collect more than place money (if i am lucky) he really has to up his game in the jumping department.
Well the magic sign have shortened rambo’s odds into 16′s, to be honest i am surprised they held out for so long….every time i pass my local i seem to find another Tenner to put on
If any more leading fancies flop then he will only shorten more and more, as he’s is the only impressive form on show at present.
#911
March 1st, 2009 01:27
Forgive me if I’ve missed it….but what’s the general feeling on State of Play running in the Grand National? Will he or won’t he?
If he runs at Cheltenham (he’s entered in the Ryanair Chase and the Gold Cup) I don’t believe he will take part in the GN just three weeks later, or at least not take part with a realistic chance of winning. All the evidence suggests he needs a longer than average break between races.
His last three wins, including the Hennessy (2006), all followed a lengthy lay-off, but his return to form in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby (51K race) three months ago puts him bang in the frame for the GN.
He would carry up to a stone less than he was allocated for the GN in 2007 (11st 8lbs), although any likely weights rise could push him through the 11 stone mark, arguably hitting his prospects hard.
Overall he’s got a great profile (don’t forget a 6th place in the Gold Cup two years ago just 11 lengths behind Kauto Star), but I fear his owners and/or trainer may be harbouring Cheltenham dreams for this year, possibly another tilt at the Gold Cup but more likely the Ryanair.
Maybe they see the GN as something for another year.
I’m tempted to load up on some of the 33s for Aintree but fear he won’t be there. C’mon State of Play. Never mind Cheletnham; go for Aintree glory.
#912
March 1st, 2009 01:57
Been getting worried today because as I mentioned in my large post about a week ago, I had small bet on Darkness at 100s with a view to piling a lot more on if he got a decent result in his next run. The second Irish Raptor crashed into the sides I piled my cash on Darkness for the National, assuming I’d get the last of his decent odds. Assumed he would be 33/1 and shorter. However with so many negative comments and his price remaining still (on Betfair anyway) I decided to have another look at both the race and his profile.
Firstly, the race:
In my opinion he would have won regardless of the incident. Many of you will have a different opinion but this is just mine. He wasn’t as fluent jumping as IR but then again who is, that horse jumped perfectly throughout but Darkness was always on his tail – Irish Raptor had made a bid a long way from home – imo would have struggled to see it out and Darkness clearly stayed on at the end. Secondly I fail to see where all this ‘bad jumping’ happened. He only made one major mistake and that was earlier on – went through the fence but landed fine. Slightly brushed through the second last. But other than that jumped fine, if not as fluent as IR. He absolutely flew the last fence.
He lugged 11-12 round giving a lot of weight to some good horses. Church Island had won very easily in good style in another class 2 only 10 days before this and therefore had got away with keeping his handicap. Darkness battered him by 11 lengths and that was after being hampered by IR.
Secondly whoever mentioned it only being a class 2 race etc. Last year COD won the Eider (class 2) in an average renewal lugging round top weight. Granted that was a better performance than this but still a very similar profile
Secondly, his profile:
Aged between 8-12 (ideally 9-10) – 10 (Check)
Rated between 136-157 – 143 and will be higher than this after today (Check)
Won over 3 miles – (Check)
Won a race worth 17k – (Check)
Ran in at least 10 chases – 10 (Check)
Not run longer 55 days before GN – (Check)
Carrying less than 11st – (Check)
Finished in top 3 in C1 chase – (Check)
3 runs before weights day – only 2 (Nearly Check)
Placed in C1 chase over 24f – (Check)
50% strike rate of 1st, 2nd, 3rd in chases – 80% (Check)
Tope 3 in a chase in winning season – (Check)
Top 5 in chase after weights announced – (Check)
TS over 126 – 133 (Check)
RPR over 144 – 156 (Check)
French bred (for those of you that like it) – No (Check)
Tope 5 in Hennessy/top 3 in a National/Top 2 in race over GN fences/won 2x24f 1x28f – 2x24f 1x25f 1x26f. (So very nearly Check – 2f off, with wins in C1s at 3m).
These is pretty much every trend I can think of. If I’ve missed any please do tell me. However he only falls down on 1 major trend, and on that one he’s pretty damn close. Now regardless of what you thought of his race or his performance this is hardly clutching at straws. Without doubt for me he has the best profile on paper, at least as good as RM’s. Not saying I fancy him as much as some others as there are negatives. Why has he PU in both the Scottish and Welsh Nationals? Still doesn’t appear to be at the same class as he was before the injury (then again neither did Silver Birch until the National). However based on the trends that we all follow he comes out in fine fine form. Also fits the recent trend of coming back from lay-off and therefore being well in at the weights (COD and Silver Birch).
Since watching the race and then re-studying his profile I’m not as worried and he is without doubt in my top 3 at the moment as others have yet to prove to me – he doesn’t. Just really hope he runs now as he seems major value at 66s on Betfair if he does.
Just don’t understand how all those people who were attempting to take saving graces from SV’s or HT’s races can put this one down when the horse ran very well. Also who’s to say he won’t jump well at Aintree, he made one mistake that he could actually fall from today and even on that one he landed fine. If we were cancelling out any horse that had made one jumping error but stayed on their feet in a race before National every year we would have missed many winners. Remember he has never fallen/unseated rider.
Anyways this is my two cents on Darkness’ chance feel free to pick it apart.
Ells
1
#913
March 1st, 2009 02:05
Got some quotes from after the race:
Good:
1. In the absence of the trainer, Charles Egerton, who is buying horses in Florida, Lady Lloyd-Webber’s racing manager, Simon Marsh, said: “He will run in one of the handicaps at Cheltenham or the Grand National, but not both. He has 10st 1lb in the National, so he is in the handicap and will get in. Tony said he would have won anyway.”
2. McCoy had to keep the injury-hit but smart Darkness up to his work and they obliged by 11 lengths from Michael Hourigan’s Church Island.
Owner Lady Lloyd-Webber said: “He couldn’t breathe at Chepstow last time but he had that seen to. He is entered at Cheltenham but fairytales are made at Aintree and I am all for going for these things if he’s up for it.”
3. Lady Lloyd-Webber’s Darkness won the Veterans’ Chase at Newbury in somewhat fortuitous circumstances but ran out an 11-length victor and will now be aimed at the Grand National in April.
The injury-prone 9-4 favourite was kept up to his work and beat Church Island and Puntal very easily with McCoy saying:”He’s got a little bit of class.”
Bad:
1. But when told her horse was 33-1 for Aintree, Lady Lloyd-Webber said: “Too short.” Coral are 40-1, m’Lady, although Darkness does have a tendency to clout a fence and that would not be advisable over the huge Aintree fences.
Quote from before the race which I had seen before today but not bothered posting:
1. Darkness, for his part, was pulled up in the Welsh National after an encouraging run at Haydock. “We couldn’t find anything wrong with him,” the trainer said, “but he did gurgle. He, too, has had a wind operation and has everything in his favour now. Both of them should be pretty straight.”
Darkness holds a Grand National entry but Egerton warned: “He would have to go and win for us to think about heading to Aintree.”
Really hope they go the Aintree route. Quite a lot of my money riding on it lol.
Ells
1
#914
March 1st, 2009 09:15
Lough Derg – a great post and im with u 100% of the way . u can be subjective as u like about yesterdays performance but the bottom line is he passes most of the major trends and im astonished u can still get some of the prices quoted on betfair. if he turns up im putting him at the top of my list along with rambling minster. lets heope lady webber talks edgy into it.. 10st-1 in the national .. remember this horse has already finished in front of ramblimg minster this season giving him weight at haydock . he deserves a lot more respect than he has been getting and is a real player for aintree
#915
March 1st, 2009 09:25
where is there any proof this horse can stay??
Only runs at longer distance = pulled up; not one for me
#916
March 1st, 2009 10:01
Out of the entries which of the horses like to run at thefront, in the middle and which would run at the back.
If Rambo is a back runner i would be slightly concerned as he will need fair bit more luck.
Thanks in advance if anyone knows this
#917
March 1st, 2009 11:26
Rambo is generally held up at the start of the race but this might not be a problem
His trainer and jockey know that he wil get the trip and therefore he won’t need to stick to the inside to save ground
Therefore I can see him ploting his course on the wide outside staying out of trouble at Becher’s and the Canal Turn
My main concern is that they will be going quickly from the off and that he gets outpaced early on and has to use extra energy to stay in touch
Apart from that I expect he stays and jumps and has a nice weight
#918
March 1st, 2009 11:57
Re: Drakness:
“Lough ‘so tough’ Derg
Tope 5 in Hennessy/top 3 in a National/Top 2 in race over GN fences/won 2×24f 1×28f”
Reply
No (you can be as close as you like but he FAILS to met the trend)
And i undertand this trend goes back a long way – time for Stephen to speak up on this.
I can tell you that Darkness does fit the Pre-chritmas winners profile and would fit my “Secret Black Book” profile but only if his price is 33/1 on the day (will it be?).
I have an early part bet on Darkness and may have a bit more only if it is 33/1 or lower on the day as an insurance policy (this is in the light on the many trends he does meet). I honestly think he will fall if he runs but I hope I am wrong.
#919
March 1st, 2009 12:15
I understand this systems simply saying that hes not far off meeting the trend. We have all said there is potential of one of the trends being broken this year as there are so many and I was simply stating that he wouldn’t change that trend by that much if he won. Would simply change to 2x24f 1x26f. I’d rather a horse only just failed a trend than was miles away.
Listen guys, I’m not saying this horse has won or will win, those two PU’s worry me – although he has had wind operation since Welsh National (bad breathing supposed reason for bad performance in Welsh National + only second race back in years).
What I am saying is if we are following the trends he surely has to be on anyones shortlist and I don’t get the people who are still putting BC or SV up as some of their top tips who still fail over him?
Really wish Irish Raptor had stayed on his feet, would be a totally different picture if Darkness had stayed on to pass him and win by 2 or 3 lengths.
Ells
1
#920
March 1st, 2009 12:28
Every single winner since 1979 has had that stat.
But I am open to a flexible approach to the stats and understand that some can indeed be broken or changed slightly as the years pass. Darkness is one of those horses that I personally would take a look at on the day should he line up. He could be a nice each way bet. I can’t have him as the winner though I’m afraid.
#921
March 1st, 2009 12:45
Yes but I also believe that the same stat minus the 2x24f and 1x28f aspect has been upheld for 11 years. I think I’m right in thinking Rambling Minster fails on this trend but makes the cut when you include the 2x24f and 1x28f. Doesn’t matter to me as he’s won the Scottish Borders and Blue Square Gold Cup but simply showing this as a counter argument. If he wins I think i’m right in saying it will a break a trend that the last 11 winners have all had.
Ells
1
#922
March 1st, 2009 13:51
The year Butler’s Cabin won the Irish National he previously won at Cheltenham, his November/December form was not quite as shocking but still pretty lame as was his Jan/Feb form before last year’s Grand National. They hold him up in touch and let him go late. I expect to see a rejuvinated BC at Cheltenham and for him to justify his short price at Aintree. I lumped on large in January at 20s but won’t back again until Cheltenham. No one else does anything for me apart from Rambling Minster who I now have a little more money on than BC (again at 20s) but his big field form isn’t special and Scottish National run in 07 where he pulled up is an alarm bell for me. As someone recently mentioned I think he will be outpaced early doors and have too much to do. ‘Never reached the leaders’ I expect to read come April 5th. Butler’s Cabin is favourite and rightly so – my heart and head says it’s his time. One trend bites the dust maybe but c’est la vis. Don’t back now till after Cheltenham though. 10s after a place is better than 12/14s now if he proves a dud.
#923
March 1st, 2009 14:27
After reading some of the comments regarding Rambo and after already lumping on, I am now worried that he may get outpaced and will then have too much to do.
Is there a posative side to this? KJC did well last year coming from the back so why can’t Rambo?
#924
March 1st, 2009 14:34
Hi Guys.
To save weaving through HUNDREDS (well done guys) of posts, can someone refresh my memory.
State of Play: The word from his camp is options are open but straight to GN seems likely route. That’s right isn’t it? From about 2/3weeks ago I think…
Anyone remembers or even better with a link to this quote would be great. Ta much.
RAMBO into 16s on Skybet now too
#925
March 1st, 2009 14:36
I have been following this thread for a while now and i wanted to ask if anybody had any thoughts on Offshore Account. I am beginning to look for a saver as since the publication of the weights i cant see past State of Play as the winner, and have invested accordingly! However, i am now worried about him going to cheltenam first and blowing his chance and the possibility of an 8lb hike in the weights.
#926
March 1st, 2009 14:54
Feb 8th – from sportinglife web site.
Evan Williams is leaning towards a tilt at the John Smith’s Grand National for stable stalwart State Of Play.
The 2006 Hennessy Gold Cup winner has enjoyed another solid season so far, winning the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby before returning to West Yorkshire to finish fourth in the Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day.
Williams has purposely given the nine-year-old a mid-season break since then.
And while he is weighing up a number of options, a tilt at the Aintree spectacular is under serious consideration.
“He is in the Grand National this year and we will be keeping an eye on that as it could just be the ideal place to go now,” said the Vale of Glamorgan trainer.
“I can’t see any point in going anywhere near Cheltenham and if the National came right, we’d get in there off 10 stone.
“I think he’s had a great little season so far but it was always my intention not to make the same mistake as last year in running him too often.
“I’ll look at the Scottish National and the Whitbread (bet365 Gold Cup) at Sandown.
“But while I have not cleared it with the owners, I just think Aintree could be the race that really suits him.”
#927
March 1st, 2009 15:03
I will be backing State Of Play if Cloudy Lane doesn’t start as top weight (i.e. if SOP runs off less than 11st. And, of course, if he runs which seems likely so long as my first clause stands and either Exotic, Madison or those above Cloudy start. I still harbour doubts he will get the run though and without a race since December would be a concern. This will be my saver bet and no more me thinks.
#928
March 1st, 2009 15:18
P.S. State Of Play does maintain an entry in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. If he runs there all bets are off for the National.
#929
March 1st, 2009 15:21
There you go Johnny…thanks you ‘lil Rascal
#930
March 1st, 2009 15:22
#931
March 1st, 2009 15:32
Just looking through and I see Andreas is entered for the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual. I love this horse even though its never won me very much. Can anyone tell me more about the chances of Andreas running and winning? Probably have a fiver on it anyway.
#932
March 1st, 2009 17:16
Trainer Evan Williams seems genuinely interested in letting STATE OF PLAY have a crack at the GN. Thanks for the research, Rascal. I guess we’ll know for definite in the next week or so.
The prep race trend may have to take a hit this year, but it will be exceptional circumstances. All indications are that a race now would harm SOP’s chances, not help them. The prep race stat is not linked to a horse’s ability or suitability, it is an indication of fitness and we’ve heard so many times (and the there’s hard proof in the form book) that SOP is ‘best when fresh.’
There’s no hard evidence he can win at 4+ miles, although he’s had plenty of success at 3+ miles which, of course, is a must. His Hennessy success is gold dust in terms of GN winners’ profile.
If he can line up with 11 stone or less, I think he’s got a great chance, potentialy a genuine, proven (and lucrative) threat to RAMBLING MINSTER.
So, the moment our quirky Welsh cow farmer Mr Williams commits to Aintree, prepare to milk the 33s currently available before the price collapses to 20s or 16s.
#933
March 1st, 2009 21:17
Completed my full review. For this I have reviewed all 14 runners that matched the pre-Christams GN winners profile (it used OR 135 to OR 146 only). I have also looked at State Of Play and Brooklyn Brownie who have been mentioned on ths site many times.
All 16 runners were matched against:
1. The pre-Chrismas Gn winners profile (see post by me on Dec 17th)
2. Stephens GN winners profile (placed Welsh, Scots, Irish Nat, first five Hennesssey etc).
3. My secret “Black Book” profile that I use to make final selections.
This list is only likely to change slightly due to Cheltenham winners or losers.
Results:
A = Match with pre-christmas GN winners profile
B = Match with Stephens GN winners profile
C = Match with Black Book profile (sorry its a secret and has to stay that way). Three stars is the maximum award (but + are also possible)
A B C
Ramblin Minister YES YES ***
Negative: only 40% strike rate
Butlers Cabin Yes YES **?
Negative. MUST get 1/2/3 in next race at 25f or more or out of this list. Best profile if he does.
Garde Champetre YES YES ***
Negative: Not won Class 1 chase or been placed in Class1
Kilbeggan Blade YES YES ***
Negative: Not won Class 1 chase or been placed in Class1
………………………………………..
Next Best:
State Of Play NO YES ***+
Negative: OR 150 (ouside last ten year range for winner). Still a resonable bet IF under 11.00 (But only if). Best “Saver Bet” if under 11.00 and runs.
Parsons Legacy YES YES ***
Negative: Needs to be 33/1 (too many 40/1′s still)or under on the day (will he run?). Saver bet if under 33/1 on day and runs.
…………………………………………
Other:
L’Ami YES YES **?
Negative: Needs to be 33/1 (currently 40/1 -50/1) or under on the day. Has now run in GN twice coming F and 10th – looks like he had his chance but good trends bet if price is lower (not one for me).
So there we have it four good runners against the field + at least one good saver
The following failed to qualify for one or more good reasons:
Himalayan Trail
PU twice this seson. Strike rate 37.5%
Chelsea Harbour
Only 8 runs, strike rate 26.08%, OR 156, currently 11.00
Darkness
Fails to match Stephens GN winners profile. Price still too high (possibly the best of those rejected so some caution). We may review this one again later.
Southern Vic
Not placed at 25f or more this season.
Fails to match Stephens GN winners profile
Matlock Ranger
Pull Up twice this season.
Only two Chase wins.
Fails to match Stephens GN winners profile.
Much too high in price (66/1-150/1!)
King Harold
Not placed at 25f or more this season.
Fails to match Stephens GN winners profile.
Too high in price (40/1- 66/1)
Will he get in on OR 135?
Brooklyn Brownie
Fails to match Stephens GN winners profile.
Never won Class 1 or 2 chase
Not placed in Class 1 chase
Price still too high (40/1- 66/1)
Non runners
Iris de Balme
Endless Power
If I have missed any good trends runners I am happy to run them trough the “three systems system” given time.
I am confident the winner is in the short list of four + State Of Play if under 11.00 and Parsons Legacy if 33/1 or under on the day..
Bring it on!!!!
Now what do you think out there?
#934
March 1st, 2009 21:19
Sorry the post does not show the layout well with the ABC and Yes etc but I think you can see what I have to say.
#935
March 1st, 2009 21:45
Excellent post there Systemsman.
Those 4 do seem to be the top of the pile at the moment. Hopefully come the next forfeit stage a few of the top weighted horses will drop out making that list look even better.
#936
March 1st, 2009 23:09
Hi Systemsman, Cornish Sett failed on your system?
#937
March 1st, 2009 23:15
So far (pre-Cheltenham) only two horses have got a high enough rating from me (equal to previous winners):
Rambling Minster (backed)
Black Apalachi (not backed)
State Of Play would with another run (backed)
Others close:
Notre Pere
Chelsea Harbour
Snowy Morning
Himalyan Trail
Systemsman – what do you make of Black Apalachi?
#938
March 1st, 2009 23:18
Great stuff Systemsman. Thank you.
My big problem with KILBEGGAN BLADE are his performances in his three C1 races. You’re right that he’s never won or been placed in a C1 race. In fact, on each occasion he’s reportedly clattered fences and been out of contention when he’s been pulled up some distance from home. He will need a remarkable improvement in his form at this level to find himself in the shake-up. Even a C1 top six place would have offered some encouragement, but there’s nothing.
His trends profile gives him a chance – he’s quite rightly on the shortlist for serious consideration on that basis. But, I think further investigation reveals dire cracks in his credentials. Better horses will need to be taken out of the race for KB to have a chance of winning, in my opinion.
Is his best hope soft going and a handful of finishers? I won’t be backing him. Good luck to those who are. I’ve been wrong before. Often!
#939
March 2nd, 2009 00:29
I think Stephen left Brooklyn Brownie and Darkness off his matched list because of their prices at the time.
Brooklyn does match Crisp and Stephens work of art with his 2nd. to Endless Power over GN fences.
He was 2nd. in a C1 to Snoopy Loopy and has won a C2 chase. But he’s a few bob short of the 17K. race and time is running out for a few more prep runs. Bless him. (Lafontaine no less – pity )
#940
March 2nd, 2009 01:09
“Brody Says:
February 27th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
RAMBLING MINSTER OUT FOR THE SEASON
Just heard on the news wires that Rambling Minster has picked up a tendon injury and is out for the rest of the season. Trainer and owner gutted. What a disaster for all of those ante post wagers.”
I didn’t post this some sad individual copied my username for a hilarious joke. Think I can guess who it was.
#941
March 2nd, 2009 01:20
Beware of the powers of Darkness.
Darkness V Rambling Minster
2F. short V 2% short.
Infact Saturdays race was 27F. according to Racing Post. So, Lough, your only 1F. short of Crisp/Stephens work of art.
Last year I rounded up the lowest strike rate of 41.66% to 42%. So, Systemsman, that should take 0.34% off your worries about Rambling.
So what do we have –
A dodgy jumper with no falls no ur’s but 2pu’s(1 at Ayr.33) and 1 furlong short V A good jumper with no falls no ur’s but 2pu’s(1 at Ayr.33) and 1.66% short.
Sticking strickly to the C/S profile then Rambling is the winner but beware of perfection.
Remember C.O.D. pulled up at Ayr.33 and Chep.30
#942
March 2nd, 2009 02:35
VERY good point miinnehoma. Totally forgotten about COD’s 2 PU’s in Nationals. All I would say is that they were before his lengthy absence whereas Darkness’ Welsh PU was only in Dec. However owner has come out and given reason for that performance. Remember so many of us were happy to get on Cornish Sett when we thought he had had breathing operation since his 10th in last years GN. We know Darkness has since Welsh National yet still appears to be pretty friendless.
By the way I loved how L’ami also came out in Systems short list as well and failed based on the fact that he was too gooder value lol. Totally understand your reasoning systems, just makes me laugh that he isn’t good value unless his price falls, really ironic.
Ells
1
#943
March 2nd, 2009 02:38
Pablo,
I think you have mentioned a few times about the Strong Gale Stamina influence – No GN winners or even placed horses. I don’t doubt you but can you confirm this is 100%.
#944
March 2nd, 2009 08:35
Systemsman – nice to see that you’re confident enough to show your final list at last. It really looks sadly lacking in genuine candidates this year. With Ramblings preparations complete he sure does look the stand out selection trends-wise in a mediocre bunch.
Are you applying any kind of TS figure to the selections? I would think Garde, Kilbeggan (can still impress us) & Butlers may fail if you used 126 – 128 as a minimum. Maybe you’re “stretching the net” a wee bit this year.
For me, now that Him T can no longer be considered winner material, at presnt the only 2 who should be considered a danger are Garde & State of Play.
#945
March 2nd, 2009 09:22
Systems, surely Mon Mome and Cornish Sett meet all trends. Brooklyn Brownie narrowly fails on 17k win as he has been 2nd at Aintree and had a top3 C1 chase place, though under 24f. Needs a prep.
#946
March 2nd, 2009 09:44
“Systems, surely Mon Mome and Cornish Sett meet all trends. Brooklyn Brownie narrowly fails on 17k win as he has been 2nd at Aintree and had a top3 C1 chase place, though under 24f. Needs a prep.”
Crisp,
What makes you think these horses will fair better this year when they weren’t good enough last year?
Further up in this thread I posted some stats about horses finishing unplaced then coming back for a second try. They don’t win.
#947
March 2nd, 2009 10:16
note to the stayer-
1. are you my stalker
2. Why are you lying?
‘Further up in this thread I posted some stats about horses finishing unplaced then coming back for a second try. They don’t win.’ ….. Kilmore 62, Highland Wedding 69, Rag Trade 76, Little Polveir 89.
And in the last 30 odd years Churchtown Boy, The Tsarevich, Durham Edition and Just So, all came second. The Pilgarlic 79, Classified 85, Monanore 88, Brave Highlander 00, Nil Desperandum 06 were all 3rd or 4th.
I’m not sure whether they will win, I cant see in to the future. Cornish Sett has won C1 race and finished 2nd in Welsh National this season, best form of his life? But anyway, they fit the stats, that is the point, and merit consideration.
#948
March 2nd, 2009 10:39
Another great post twist.
Again it may not happen much at all (returning to do well after being unplaced) but with all considerations you have to use your common sense and in the end make your OWN judgement. Cornish well in on my list.
It would be nice Stayer, if AGAIN, you could post your opinion, then leave it at that – for others to mull over and consider and for you to do the same with theirs.
But here you go again all arsey in your tone as if you are ‘The Oracle’.
State your opinions, views others opinions – that’s it.
Stop being so dogmatic.
#949
March 2nd, 2009 10:40
Read Crisp for twist – am having a twister with morning coffee lol -too many confectionery names 1st thing!
#950
March 2nd, 2009 10:51
Note to Crisp-
1. Not stalking you, just trying to stop you wasting your dosh.
2. Little Polveir was indeed the last horse to finish unplaced to go on and win the race. That was ’89, which I make 20 years ago. How many also-rans have come back for another go in the last 20 years?
I also stressed the point about UNPLACED horses. Durham Edition had already finished 2nd before his 5th place in ’89 and would have faired better that year if it wasn’t for the heavy going.
Ok so Mon Mome and Cornish Sett do fit the stats but the stats throw up a pretty long shortlist that needs to be cut down. I think putting a line through the horses that finish unplaced in previous years is a sensible measure based on recent history.
#951
March 2nd, 2009 11:02
Crisp – Cornish’s great form at times this season defo needs close consideration – esp his gliding with ease and loads left in tank when coming 2nd in Welsh Nat, I absolutely agree.
His breathing op hadn’t fully kicked in to full benefit at last years GN and they say he is now getting full benefit.
I would discount his chances no more than blinker stat or Eider/GN double stat didn’t put me off COP last year.
#952
March 2nd, 2009 11:13
Stayer- look, no point in wasting energy arguing. Twenty years since Little Polveir- but that is just it is an unusual occurence like an Eider Chase winner winning(Highland Wedding 69- COD 08)
I’ve backed Cornish Sett at 50/1. He’s a completely different sort than last year. I don’t think that is wasted bet when, after all is said and done there are FR’s, 7yr olds, horses carrying 11st+, horses who haven’t performed in C1 chases, horse who haven’t won one of their last ten chases, horses who may be lacking a prep run, at the head of the betting.
#953
March 2nd, 2009 11:14
Fair enough comment Showlad.
His form in the early part of the season was much improved but with that has come the cost of a higher mark this time around. Also, what did you make of his Haydock run? A bit disappointing given his Welsh National effort?
#954
March 2nd, 2009 11:31
Yes a dissapointing run after WN, but although not cast in dye, that can sometimes mirror the erratic form of GN winners in the season (calendar year) running up to the Big Day.
Cornish may more lay claims to a place, but given the luck (unluck BC last year) of the draw, I think for sure, his win and then runner-up in WN (esp with lots still in tank) mark quite a change since he plodded (though nice plodding)round Aintree last year and therefore he cannot be discounted.
#955
March 2nd, 2009 11:36
Stayer if want to take a piece about your own advice and look at more recent history then the list isn’t very long based on trends given that at this moment in time. Weight will probably rule out COD, Black Apalachi and My Will, Butlers,current form- top4 chase place 40/40, Garde and Kilbeggan dont meet top 3 in C1 chase place 23/23. State Of Play and Parsons need a prep run or go against the last prep run trend 2-8 weeks 36/36. Mon Mome, L’Ami,Cornish Sett and Rambling Minster are still good on the trends. Three of those have been unplaced!
#956
March 2nd, 2009 11:53
“Mon Mome, L’Ami,Cornish Sett and Rambling Minster are still good on the trends. Three of those have been unplaced!”
Three that I have put a line through!! At least i’ve backed Rambo, who will bolt up and all this discussion about Cornish Sett et al will be academic
Being serious though I did back Mon Mome at long odds last year but he shaped like he didn’t see out the trip so I couldn’t back him this year, and I have the same feeling about L’Ami in 2007. Cornish Sett would be the best of the three but still not for me.
A couple of others to make my shortlist haven’t been discussed much on here and one of those is Simon. Forgotten horse or a no-hoper?
#957
March 2nd, 2009 12:02
L’Ami massively on on previous weights and new home and training regime seem to fit like a glove. He has been on my list at long odds since Dec.
Cornish though seems best of the three unplaced bunch though.
Simon will have ‘safe bet’ from me, but feel his chances have really gone.
#958
March 2nd, 2009 12:06
Lets keep the L’ami train going!
Just really hope they run him.
Ells
1
#959
March 2nd, 2009 12:21
*Disclaimer – these are my views based on my research and not meant to be gospel*
Strong Gale
Strong Gale was a very successful stallion over the years producing some very good horses at a variety of trips:
Shorter tripe – 20 – 21f: Strong Promise, Katabatic etc
Staying chasers – 24 – 27f: Life Of A Lord, Marlborough, Merry Gale, Cab On Target, Stormfairweather, Opera Hat, Ad Hoc, Sibton Abbey etc
Extreme trips 31f+: ???
From the research that I have done using the RP site (since 1988 on horses RPR 135+) I can find 31 times a Strong Gale-sired horse has run over 31f or more (extreme distances) – no wins and the only place is Ad Hoc’s second in the Scottish Grand National 33f (he failed 3 times in the GN)
Best Strong Gale sire performances in National:
1996 Three Brownies 10’0 (6th beaten 22L) 100/1
weakened
1996 Life Of A Lord 11’6 (7th beaten 36L) 10/1
outpaced from 4 out
1996 Lusty Light 10’11 (16th beaten 122+L) 14/1
always behind
1999 Back Bar 10’0 (14th beaten 107+L) 200/1
tailed off
1999 Strong Chairman 10’0 (15th beaten 109+L) 50/1
tailed off
Another 13 runners P, U etc
Strong Gale died in the mid-1990s I think and therefore he will no longer be a sire of GN entries
Strong Gales as a dam sire or influence on dam side
This is more difficult to assess because there will be hundreds out there – all I have been able to do here is go through the runners in the last 10 Nationals
The two that have finished the race:
2007 Gallant Approach 10’9 (12th beaten 113L) 33/1
tailed off
2008 Idle Talk 10’9 (14th beaten 113L) 66/1
weakened badly 4 out
In addition these have P, U or F:
Shotgun Willy (twice – once when a hot 7/1 favourite)
Takagi (25/1)
Fundamentalist (66/1)
Idle Talk (20/1)
Conclusions
From those that have run none has been proven to truly stay the trip
But this does not mean that one might in the future
This year’s entries – War Of Attrition, Hear The Echo, Offshore Account, Fundamentalist, Darkness, Southern Vic – each has Strong Gale as an influence on the dam side
My conclusion is that Strong Gale is a negative but lots of other things are negatives too such as no Class 1 form, no wins at 3m+, no form this season
Although none of these other negatives has prevented a horse from being placed before
If I were selecting between two closely-matched horses and one had Strong Gale in its pedigree and the other Busted – I would stick with the Busted influence and rule out the Strong Gale
But that’s my personal view and my money on the line
Problem is when you get the influence of both – War Of Attrition and Fundamentalist – does one counteract the other?
#960
March 2nd, 2009 12:22
Should say shorter trip not tripe – Katabatic was not tripe!
#961
March 2nd, 2009 12:31
Should also add that some of the horses mentioned in the 24-27f bracket above were multiple winners of decent races over 3m to 3m 3f
But none could make the grade over the marathon trip
#962
March 2nd, 2009 12:54
Lough; I think L’Ami could be very good value. Carried a wopping 11st 8lbs! in to 10th in ’07. The interesting thing is he will be giving Butlers 11lbs, if they meet at Cheltenham but he will be receiving 2lbs at Aintree. That race at the festival could be very important.
Pablo; yes, this Strong Gale seems a big negative in GN.
#963
March 2nd, 2009 14:04
great to read the arguements that have been playing out in my own head! over and over…haa haa.
thought Fundamentalist ran a good prep other day, unlike many. a positive! he can throw in a good one (occasionally)… but so many good horses from Strong Gale have come and faded here, oh,.. well good value place chance at 100-1 ey. L’Ami at generally 50-1 better?! still haven’t moved in on him trying to hold out til cheltenham run, but at that price, how can this hold!!? I know! he ran finshed before… aged 8 with 11st8! good excusses I think!
Interesting breeding situation with Fundamentalist and WOA had slipped by me that they were both out of Strong Gale and Busted! have to say I couldn’t decide either way with them staying 4m4, now I know why
#964
March 2nd, 2009 14:08
Precisely Crisp. I really hope BC goes for the x-country cos if either of Garde or L’ami beat him (which the odds suggest they will) then their odds will collapse. Another thing is he was only 8 when he carried 11st 8. He’s 10 now – perfect age and is going to be a stone lighter this year with only 10st 8 (assuming Exotic and Madison pull out).
I’m always very wary of backing previously unplaced horses in GN because as people have said before, if they couldn’t come close to winning it one year then why can they win it next time. However I make exceptions if they have major changes. This horse is now with different trainer and running much more appropriate races. Plus if you remember there was huge hype from his camp before that 07 National with Mccoy saying it was his best ever chance of winning. With both form like his and a profile that meets all the trends I just don’t see why he’s so long in market. Only negatives are that trainer has come out and said x-country at Cheltenham is main aim and also that there is no guarantee he will run.
Ells
1
#965
March 2nd, 2009 14:30
With a few more people beginning to come round to my way of thinking with regards to L’ami I decided to watch his 2 Nationals. In 08 he fell at second, he’s on wrong side of camera so you cannot see what happened, but there was a horse that fell near him, that’s all I know.
For the 07 race I watched thinking how has this horse come so far behind. For 2/3rds of the race he has to be one of the main contenders. Is always in the top 7-8 at the front and jumps perfectly. After the 17th it is commented that L’ami is “running well” and he is in about 5th. At the 22nd – Bechers he is slightly hampered by Bewley’s Berry who falls. Nothing too major but interrupts his flow. Then at 24th – Canal Turn, his momentum is well and truely knocked by 2 riderless horses who land right in front of him and Mccoy is thrown up in air. Gets whip out too try and get back it. After this he hits a few fences and just can’t keep up with pace.
This is only my view of the race and I didn’t go into it with a bias view, just wanted to watch his performance. The horse ran like a winner up until the 22nd when slightly hampered, then only 2 fences later is pushed outside by 2 riderless horses. Not saying he would have won, but was having no problems till then. Plus he was carrying 11st 8lb which eventually would take its toll on most horses, especially 8 year olds.
I’m becoming more and more confident about this horse the more I look at him. If stamina was an issue then I’m not as concerned as he has been running in 31f races this season and coming close. Just hope he runs.
Ells
1
#966
March 2nd, 2009 15:07
It’s L’Ami’s class that is the key. 2nd in a Hennessey, 4th in a King George. OR in 07 -158 OR in GN -141. Stamina certainly does not seem to be an issue – definteley looked like weight not stamina was the issue in 07. Fell last year but of course it’s well dcoumented a fall around Aintree is no negative; West Tip, Little Polveir x2, Royal Athlete(watch void National the horse didn’t know it wasn’t a race!) Rough Quest(in topham) Red Marauder, Amberleigh House( marked as fall but looks as though he was baulked by riderless horse)Hedgehunter, Silver Birch .. it’s almost a requirement. Seems to prefer soft side of good ground.
If there is to be a gallic winner, a big 99 year if, then you need a ‘friend’ in L’Ami.
#967
March 2nd, 2009 15:11
L’ami: Tasty odds, but although you’ll find worse horses at shorter odds, I can’t see L’ami turning round his recent defeats to GC. Given that I can’t see GC winning if he puts in a big run at Cheltenham, the same has to be said, but more so for L’ami. The Cross Country at Cheltenham will be really interesting though and it does highlight how badly off BC is at the weights. A good performance when not expected from BC could be of interest. If you fancy something in this race, why not back it for the race in a double with a horse who can win in the GN. E.G. GC – Rambo dbl = 89/1 or L’ami – Rambo dbl = 83/1.
The only way you can make money on L’ami would be to back then lay it off. If you do this, you’d really need L’ami to win at Cheltenham in which case, why not back him at 3/1? There’s a good chance of making money by coupling the two against the field for the Cross Country at slight odds against.
As an example, you had to fancy Darkness on Saturday and rather than back for the National, I took 104/1 about him winning on Saturday and Rambo winning the National. He won, but his GN odds didn’t even halve. I now have 5 times the stake and a great chance come April 4.
#968
March 2nd, 2009 15:25
In addition to the above, why not back L’ami at 3s to win at Cheltenham then see whether he’s likely to go to Aintree? If not, pocket your profit, if so, invest it and as long as the price is 13/1 or more, you’re better off than backing him at 50s. Same goes for GC but more so as he’s 7/2 at Cheltenham and only 33s for the GN. So back him at 7/2 and then if he runs at Aintree, you can re-invest at 7/1 and still make more money than backing at 33s.
#969
March 2nd, 2009 15:52
Was it the weight or the ability to stay?
Innox (2005, 7th, 11/1, 10’13) ran a huge race for a long way and looked a danger to all four out, but from the next fence the writing was on the wall and he failed to get home
L’Ami (2007, 10th, 14/1, 11’8) ran well for a long way
Went prominent 12th, mistake 22nd (2nd Bechers), mistake 26th, weakened 3 out, tailed off
Both have same dad (Lute Antique)
Granted L’Ami was a better horse but Innox beat him in the Racing Post Chase
Still I think the X Country should provide several good pointers
#970
March 2nd, 2009 17:11
Good post Pablo, I forgot that L’Ami and Innox were half-brothers. L’Ami is also a full brother (admittedly classier) to Kelami, and Kelami was pulled up in the 2007 race. I’m sure I read some comments from Mick Fitz after the race about Kelami jumping really well but just not getting the trip.
#971
March 2nd, 2009 17:28
I know I keep going on about breeding and staying and jumping but these statistics should hopefully point out why.
Last ten GNs 1999-2008
Runners = 391
Finishers = 132
Within 25 lengths of the winner = 30
This suggests that on average:
2 out of every 3 runners does not make it round for one reason or another
Only 3 horses each year are within 25 lengths of the winner at the end of the race
There are hard luck stories admittedly but being a good jumper and being able to stay are clearly very important
Very obvious but easy to overlook with so many other factors to consider and perhaps why collateral form is not necessarily that conclusive (these horses have often come up against each other many times before with varying results)
#972
March 2nd, 2009 18:33
Pablo, sorry again you’re giving a very stilted picture. Innox went to the GN in 05 without a run for 63 days, no runs in winner profile races. L’Ami, barring accidents, will line up for the National with great trends,including 2nd in Hennessey. His achilles heel is 4 career falls though to be accurate this is one of the trends that has been most recently broken.
#973
March 2nd, 2009 19:00
I agree with Pablo here. L’Ami may tick the right boxes and may have shown some class form a few years ago but he shaped like a non-stayer in the National on a previous attempt, his half-brother shaped like a non-stayer and his full brother shaped like a non-stayer. On pedigree he looks doubtful to get the trip.
#974
March 2nd, 2009 19:02
Crisp – I was asking the question because I thought people were getting carried away by a horse with arguably its best days behind it
L’Ami went into the race 2 years ago with a very good profile – weight, a Cheltenham run and number of career falls arguably the only downsides
This year his best RPR is a stone below what it was two years ago although he has a nice weight
Back to his best he has a chance on handicapping but we’ll have to wait for Cheltenham to find out
I still have my doubts about him staying which is all I said
#975
March 2nd, 2009 19:31
To Pablo
Many thanks – mighty work.
#976
March 2nd, 2009 20:26
Lough Derg – L’Ami has also come up on my radar a couple of times and so I’ve followed your lead and watched National again. No doubt he was hampered but so too was Mon Mome last year. In fact Mon Mome was hampered 3 times: by Butlers Cabin falling at Bechers (badly hampered), by Knowhere’s shocking attempt at jumping Valentines and by another horse somewhere along the line (but that last one was only a minor hamperage).
Despite the above, I generally agree with the comments about unplaced horses coming back for another bite of the cherry and failing. I don’t think L’Ami or Mon Mome will win, and the same goes for Cornish Sett. One of them may get placed but that’s about it. If I was betting one of them e/w, I would go for Mon Mome.
#977
March 2nd, 2009 20:37
Forget L’Ami he has no chance in the National – and not just because of the French Bred article. You are welcome to keep backing him Lough Derg and are doing nothing whatsoever to ‘come round to your way of thinking’. How arrogant. He is definite red pen material.
The fact is he is carrying less weight this year than did when he was an 8 year old is because he is regressive. This is a horse that could give Kauto Star and other good horses a race in his day. He is now more or less campaigned in cross-country races and poor handicaps. I had to laugh at your trying to make his previous efforts around Aintree sound positive.
He has an outstandiing chance of winning at Cheltenhem though (indeed I have backed him) and I agree with Notelppa. Back him to win at Cheltenham and double it with something that has a chance at Aintree.
#978
March 2nd, 2009 20:47
Pablo funny as ever and great research
RAMBO looks SO increasingly strong EVEN when I try to think to the contrary..
Main 2 plusses for me with him, which your research, Pablo, just underlines, are – to be a great jumper (his technique and record (never fallen) are impeccable AND the other being getting the trip – he ran 4m+ to win ‘Borders National’ and at Haydock could have run on all day and Reveley says trip ‘no problem at all’.
I think in the main ANY great, even good run at Chelts will be good for stats for the horse that does so – but still can’t help thinking, on the whole, will leave less in tank for GN.
#979
March 2nd, 2009 21:41
WhiteArab do you own a stationary box as you seem to be putting a lot of red lines through horses and im just worried you wont have enough ink left.
In fact never mind ink being left is there any horses left that dont have a red scribble through them.
Really interested in hearing what your selection(s) is/are and the reasons for not giving them the old red pen treatment.
#980
March 2nd, 2009 22:14
For what its worth I think the winner is curently around 33/1 or less on Oddschecker.com. Very few people have taken note of price as a trend but this is a good indecator most years (yes in about 1 in 10 you may get caught out). The bookies are gettnng much better at finding the GN winner and hammering the price.
Current runners at 33/1 with odds checker.com (ignore Betfair/WBX/BETDAQ and Sporting Index for the general check)
Included:
Exotic Dancer (Betfair 74/1) downwards (25 runners in total)
Excluded: (so far – could ofcourse change with a Cheltenham win).
I mention the many so called “good things” only.
All no hopers unless they win at Cheltenham!
Parsons Legacy 33/1 – 40/1 [x10](Betfair 47/1)
Darkness 25/1 – 40/1 [x5] {Betfair 64/1}
Miko De Beauchene 33/1 – 40/1 [x3] (Betfair 64/1]
Mon Mome 25/1 – 40/1 [x1] (Betfair 79/1!)
Silver Birch 33/1 – 50/1 [x1] (Betfair 47/1)
Cornish Sett 33/1 – 50/1 [x2] (Betfair 59/1)
LAmi 40/1 – 50/1 [x9!!] (Betfair 64/1!)
Golden Flight 33/1 – 50/1 [x3] (Betfair 64/1)
Battlecry 33/1 – 50/1 [x7] (Betfair 74/1)
Brooklyn Brownie 40/1 – 66/1 [x10!!] (Betfair 139/1 !!!)
Reveillez 50/1 – 100/1 [x3] (Betfair 119/1)
Winners price in GN last 20 years
2008 7/1JF
2007 33/1
2006 11/1
2005 7/1F
2004 16/1
2003 16/1
2002 20/1
2001 33/1
2000 10/1
1999 10/1
1998 7/1F
1997 14/1
1996 7/1F
1995 40/1
1994 16/1
1993 VOID
1992 14/1
1991 12/1
1990 16/1
1989 28/1
1988 10/1
Starting price – last 20 years:
33/1 or over 3/20
Under 33/1 17/20
20/1 or under 16/20!!
So forget those big price runners at 40/1 or more unless they win at Cheltenham and ofcousre there price will drop anyway.
#981
March 2nd, 2009 22:27
Bloody hilarious Brian ha ha
#982
March 2nd, 2009 23:05
Here is the list of entries @ Cheltenham of the top 14 in the betfair market none of them have anything booked earler,Black Apalachi,Rambo,southern vic,king johns castle,and kilbeggan blade have no entries
10th march
240 my will comply or die hear the echo
cloudy lane.
400 garde champetre butlers cabin
11th march
130 big fella thanks
12th march
205 butlers cabin
240 snowy morning state of play
440 butlers cabin
13th march
320 my will snowy morning state of play
#983
March 2nd, 2009 23:18
Not that such an annoying and brash post deserves a dignified response whitearab. Nevertheless I will give you one anyways.
As far as I’m aware we are all here to offer our opinions and ideas regarding the Grand National and its potential winners. Based on my research which is very similar to most people’s on here L’ami has come up on my shortlist. If he hasn’t on yours then so be it.
I have merely been putting up L’ami’s stats and profile as I think it has a chance. People can choose to dismiss or take in this information. I am by no means telling anybody what to do or who to back. Which is strange as that seems to be something you do constantly :S (DO NOT BACK THIS, RED PEN, HE WILL NOT WIN etc).
In recent days a few more people have started to bring L’ami as up as prospect (if not as strongly as me). Hence my comment about ‘coming round to my way of thinking’. I’m not claiming that its beacuse of me that they’re changing their minds etc, just happy to see other people verifying my thoughts.
In your opinion he is regressive. I tend to disagree as I think he has had his best season for a while this season, and seems to be much happier house in his new home. Also ‘in your opinion’ cross country races are poor races, again I tend to disagree, I really like them as GN preps. There are no ‘facts’ when discussing opinions whitearab, if your going to criticise other people you need to understand this.
Feel free to not listen to any of my comments as I pay no attention to yours. I welcome responses, positive or negative from anyone on here, providing they are intelligent, backed-up responses. That after all is what we are here to do, help each other out. If I make a mistake, or I tip a horse that won’t win, then by all means tell me, but have some evidence to suggest otherwise.
Makes me laugh how someone can call me arrogant when all they ever do is tell everyone else how they are wrong and they need to ‘put a red line through it’. This isn’t a competition to see who is best, but a team game.
GOD I hope we have a french winner this year of all years
Ells
1
#984
March 2nd, 2009 23:56
Surely this burst a few bubble:
“I mention the many so called “good things” only.
All no hopers unless they win at Cheltenham!
Parsons Legacy 33/1 – 40/1 [x10](Betfair 47/1)
Darkness 25/1 – 40/1 [x5] {Betfair 64/1}
Miko De Beauchene 33/1 – 40/1 [x3] (Betfair 64/1]
Mon Mome 25/1 – 40/1 [x1] (Betfair 79/1!)
Silver Birch 33/1 – 50/1 [x1] (Betfair 47/1)
Cornish Sett 33/1 – 50/1 [x2] (Betfair 59/1)
LAmi 40/1 – 50/1 [x9!!] (Betfair 64/1!)
Golden Flight 33/1 – 50/1 [x3] (Betfair 64/1)
Battlecry 33/1 – 50/1 [x7] (Betfair 74/1)
Brooklyn Brownie 40/1 – 66/1 [x10!!] (Betfair 139/1 !!!)
Reveillez 50/1 – 100/1 [x3] (Betfair 119/1)
Come on defend your selections so many of these have been put forward and I may still change my mind if you can convince me and others
On Befair the cut of point currently (under 40/1) is Garde Champetre (37/1) upwards to Black Apalachi (13/1) – 16 runners (so Himalayan Trail, War of Attrition, Character Building, Hot Weld and Chelsea Harbour are excluded).
Food for thought is it not?
#985
March 3rd, 2009 00:31
Been looking at L’Ami aswell but not prepared to back it until after Chelt see how he gets on with good ground (hopefully). He doesn’t seem to have any form on good ground seem to love a bog.
Comply or Die, hasn’t run since the weights have been announced dare i say his prev run without head gear where to get a low weight. the question is he won last year carrying 10-9 carrying 10-12 now, how much of a weight increase would you give him to win again.
I think he could carry possibly 11-2 11-3 and still win. This is a horse with proven class, he’s been trained for this race again this year hence his the bad runs at the earlier in the season to get a lower weight.
Anyone any vews? Does he not match most trends?
#986
March 3rd, 2009 01:33
Johnny are you not the least bit worried about the overnight withdrawls from his last two entries? Personally I think all is not right with the horse maybe last year took more out of him than anyone realised and he has been an injury prone horse. I can’t believe that he would be delibrately run badly as Phil Smith was always going to whack his weight right up for last years performace.
#987
March 3rd, 2009 02:34
I have actually thought this about the ‘no blinkers’ issue as well. If they are as vital to the horse as we have been made to believe, then why leave them off? I too think they had run him without until weights day in order to maybe get a couple of pounds better off. He was intended to run with blinkers since the weights day which does make you wonder if this is the case.
Also I would have agreed with you brody but there have been no signs of unrest from anyone at the Pipe yard and he has said this this week:
“We’ve decided against running him as there is no point risking him on fast ground,” said Pipe.
“Tom Scudamore and Timmy Murphy rode up at Doncaster on Friday and they said it had dried out a lot. I thought it might happen and it’s a shame but he’ll probably go to Cheltenham now.
“The ground should be fine there as they will water if it’s too quick.”
Sounds like he was genuinally pulled out because of the ground.
Slightly more worried about the dirty scope meaning he was pulled out of Haydock Gold Cup, but again, comments were quite positive:
“We had to withdraw him because of a dirty scope, so we’ll have to wait a bit longer,” said trainer David Pipe.
“I don’t know how long it will hold him up, but he’ll entered for Cheltenham. Otherwise he’s in great form.”
Finally before the Grimthorpe Pipe said this:
“I am favouring running him at Doncaster and I imagine he will run if the ground is OK,” said Pipe. (Already said before the race that ground was worry).
“He will have the blinkers back on next time he runs.
“He is in tremendous form at home and I hope to see a different horse with blinkers back on.”
I can’t believe that he would be so optimistic about his chances if there was something wrong with the horse. I won;t be backing a horse who’s likely to have more than 11st, in bad form and with unplanned prep at 20s just yet. However if he runs well at Cheltenham then he has a gooder chance as any previous winners of repeating the feat.
My view – wouldn’t back just yet unless you think he’s gonna run a blinder at Cheltenham and wanna risk getting the early value. However you could do much worse (Big Fella Thanks mentioning no names
) I expect he will definately get round again.
Ells
1
#988
March 3rd, 2009 04:06
Been working all night and now I’ve finished decided to treat myself and watch last years Grand National as I’m beginning to get excited now.
Three things I thought after watching the race:
1. Comply or Die had that won without doubt. Don’t care whether Butler’s Cabin stays on his feet or not, that year was Comply or Die’s, ran perfectly throughout – what a horse! One of the best winners in recent times in my opinion.
2. Hedgehunter is just an awesome horse. Even up until about 4 out I was thinking ‘he’s well in this!’
3. King John’s Castle still really scares me, runs perfectly throughout and pretty much gets every inch of the trip, if he’d won, the National would become a lottery again
lol.
Just thought I’d leave my musings on here
Ells
1
#989
March 3rd, 2009 14:12
If anyones interested Southern vic is entered in the three mile leinster National Chase on Sunday – along with priests leap – .
As I said in a previous message SV had not raced right handed for 4 years, until last time and it did not suit. Also he looked big before the race.
So I am willing to see him run again left handed again before writing him off fully
#990
March 3rd, 2009 15:18
I do agree with you Lough Derg – it is all about opinions and I do respect your’s, Brody’s – and that of everyone else who posts on here (whether I agree with them or not). Let’s face it, some will back this year’s winner based on what trends we live and die by and others will not.
Brian – I am never struggling for stationery! Red pens hardly get used these days and so they last me a long time!
In terms of my short list on finding the WINNER (accepting that I take the red pen to French Breds as far as finding the winner goes), it is:
1. RAMBLING MINSTER (can’t pass a betting shop without putting more on!)
2. BLACK APALACHI (backed AP but won’t again until I see if he gets soft ground AND the weight not going up more than 2lbs)
3. STATE OF PLAY (backed AP but won’t again until I see if he has a run around Cheltenham and avoids a hike in the weights)
4. KILBEGGAN BLADE (backed AP and would back again if he looks like getting a run – he is due to turn up in a hurdle race soon)
I have had fun bets on Betfair many weeks ago on DARKNESS, REVEILLEZ and SOUTHERN VIC.
Regards an earlier post, KING JOHN’S CASTLE has never won a race over 3 miles and so strangely enough gets the boot on my workings (17F is the furthest distance he has won a chase and he has only won one chase, not the required three!). But he did stay on well last year, although I agree with Lough Derg that COD was the winner a long way out.
#991
March 3rd, 2009 15:23
With regards to KJC i was merely stating how much his run scared me lol. A horse that I’m pretty sure not one of us would have tipped up, came so close to glory and ran a cracking race. I’ll never be backing it though. If there is going to be one like that this year I would take a crack at Irish Invader, but again no way I’ll ever be backing it. The 3m+ win trend makes sense and therefore I stick by it.
Ells
1
#992
March 3rd, 2009 15:55
Darkness backers might like to know that his RPR from Saturday means that he is now very well handicapped – the RPR equalled his lifetime best and there may be more to come.
Incidentally, for what its worth, his time was faster than Trabolgan’s win in the Hennessy on similar ground (although you can never completely trust going reports).
I traded out of Darkness a while back due to concerns over his ability to stay and his erratic jumping so have no financial interest.
But should he jump round and stay (big ‘ifs’ for me)…
…would have a great chance on weight and class
#993
March 3rd, 2009 15:58
…which also might suggest that Irish Raptor might be a good thing for the Topham?
#994
March 3rd, 2009 16:26
That’s great news Pablo and what’s better is his odds have collapsed on Betfair. From 65s into 40s. I’ve been really annoyed as like I mentioned before, I backed him heavily the minute Irish Invader hit the rail in order to get what I thought would be the last of the value and was then surprised when he actually drifted after the race
. Back to lower than I backed him for now so I’m happy. I did think it was a decent performance.
Ells
1
#995
March 4th, 2009 00:00
Is this thread still the live one? Unusual not to have any comments for 6 hours!!
#996
March 4th, 2009 09:46
“Is this thread still the live one? Unusual not to have any comments for 6 hours!!”
Everyone’s busy studying for the Festival!!
#997
March 4th, 2009 11:32
Nice list there Whitearab (although i wont be having Black Apalachi as i dont think it will come soft enough)
Without shooting me down (or telling me to get the red pen out ha ha) can someone tell me what they think about Ballyfitz apart from it not having ran enough chases.
The reason i ask is my current top selections will not be getting anymore of my cash until after the festival so i decided to start thinking ‘outside the box’ in trying to find a likely longshot that will give me a decent run for my money
#998
March 4th, 2009 11:57
on sportinglife
Evan Williams has confirmed State Of Play will head straight to the John Smith’s Grand National – and the handler is increasingly confident of a bold show from his charge.
“We’ll go to the Grand National, it’s a race that looks made for him and he won’t go to Cheltenham,” the trainer confirmed.
“He’ll be trained especially for the Grand National and the handicapper has given us a massive change with 10st 8lb. If the top one comes out we’ll have 11st 10st. His form after a break reads well too and I couldn’t be happier with him.
“He won’t mind the ground, has gone well around the Mildmay Course before and there will be far worse horses than State Of Play running off his weight at Aintree.”
State Of Play is currently a 28/1 chance for the National with Sky Bet.
#999
March 4th, 2009 12:10
My top 3 for the national are as follows
1. Cornish sett
2. Rambling Minster
3. State of play
the two that i am wary of are
War of Attrition. this horse has won a gold cup and won or placed in 17/19 of its chases. If exotic dancer stays in surely at 11st 1lb this horse has a great chance.
Also Hear The Echo i know it has poor form this season but it won the Irish Nat and two of its three runs this season over hurdles, so maybe its form in those are irrelevant.
Does anyone think that if you are waiting for a horse to perform well at Cheltenham i.e 1,2,3 place, that the National will be too soon after a tough race at cheltenham.
Any comments will be appreciated.
By the way i love this website, lets all enjoy it and keep it friendly.
#1000
March 4th, 2009 12:11
Excellent spot Johnny M! Been waiting for something like that to appear! State Of Play is currently my biggest winner (Rambo not far behind!) but held back from investing more on him when I saw his Cheltenham entries. The key does appear to be the horse being fresh and even if that means he falls outside of the trends with days since last run, it is not gonna stop me from topping up again now!
#1001
March 4th, 2009 13:02
State Of Play scars the hell out of my short list – the one runner I cant pin down as it all revolves around the weight he will carry.
This is a monster of a horse
Lets look at its form:
Positives:
RPR 165 (best)
TS 160 (best)
Won 5 from 13 Chase
Won class 1 Chase
Won Class 1 Charle Hall chase Nov 2008 – this season.
Won Henessy Gold Cup Nov 2006
6th in Cheltenham Gold Cup March 2007!
Aintree form 11/17, 4/5 and 1/8 (won C2 Chase) – so completed three times in which he won once.
Passes on Stepehens GN winners profile.
Only fails my Pre-Christmas winners profile due to the OR 150 (I only included OR 135 to OR 146)
Has ***+ (the highest) in my “Black Book” ratings.
Negatives:
Only two prep runs (normely 3 required)- we did say this year with the bad weather this could result in a miner change to the recent trends.
OR 150 – a little high.
Weight 10.08 (winnable). 5lb rise would make 10.13 (still winnable). 8lb rise would make 11.02 (1lb ouside of the ten year trend I believe).
RPR and TS a little too high (can it ever be too good?)- just picking at staws here.
Had this horse had a OR of 140 to 146 he would be the best bet for the GN!
Its therefor impossible to diregard State Of Play as a possible winner so today I will be backing him at 33/1 at Corals – this price will not hold nearer the GN. Its a bet worth losing just to give me some piece of mind if he runs alonside Rambo/BC/GC/KB/BA.
Many may wish to wait until the final weight but then the value may have gone. If he ends up on 11.02 I think thats his chance gone.
Recommend:
33/1 State Of Play as a bet or “Safety Bet” to cover other selections.
Butlers Cabin – does he have just the one entry next week? Its do or die for BC – without the 1/2/3 at 25f or more his profile is crap – with it its the best on offer. Whatever the race it will be worth a small EW bet – nothing to hide now.
Brian
“Without shooting me down (or telling me to get the red pen out ha ha) can someone tell me what they think about Ballyfitz apart from it not having ran enough chases”.
Reply:
Positive:
RPR 158
Negatives:
TS 94 (way too low)
Chase runs 5 (needs 10)
Chase wins 2 (needs 3)
Not won Class 1 chase
Won only Class 2 14k (meeds 17k win)
Novice Chaser this season!!
Conclusion:
Its a bloody aweful profile – this horse is not ready to win the GN this year. Both class and speed are not good enougth. Needs more experiance.
#1002
March 4th, 2009 14:10
Butlers Cabin – does he have just the one entry next week? Its do or die for BC – without the 1/2/3 at 25f or more his profile is crap – with it its the best on offer. Whatever the race it will be worth a small EW bet – nothing to hide now.
You mentioned this before Systemsman and I have to pull you up on it this time.
Butlers Cabin leads at Cheltenham by 10 lengths and he falls at the last. Is he a good bet or not?
Or
He finished 4l 5th having made a mistake at the last. Is he a good bet or not?
I dont accept that without a top 3 is can be THE BEST selection and without it a CRAP one. Surely you can see this too? It is taking too much notice of the stats if one realtively minor thing can change your opinion of a horse’s changes.
For the record I would like to a see good run out of BC before being confident of his Aintree chances. Ill judge that on its merits though.
#1003
March 4th, 2009 14:12
I know what your saying Systemsman RE: Ballyfitz but the same would of been said about KJC last year and i would rate Ballyfitz as an upcoming prospect (albeit a late one) for chasing.
Dont get me wrong i am not saying Ballyfitz will win but i have been trying to see if there is another KJC out there and to find it you have to think outside of the box and not look at any of normal trends for the winner.
Its just an exercise im doing while waiting for cheltenham as that will be the big pointer for the national i believe this year.
Excellent news that Johnny M. My money down as quick as a flash when i seen that news RE: SoP. 33′s way to big a price for this horse and as i said earlier the only gamble was whether to put the money on before cheltenham in the hope he bypassed the gold cup at the last minute.
#1004
March 4th, 2009 15:05
“Butlers Cabin – does he have just the one entry next week? Its do or die for BC – without the 1/2/3 at 25f or more his profile is crap – with it its the best on offer. Whatever the race it will be worth a small EW bet – nothing to hide now.
Daniel I stand by every word – i will live or die by the trends/profiles – he has to get a place. Time will tell but i really do want him to get that place.
#1005
March 4th, 2009 15:14
Brian,
I agree wholeheartedly with Systemsman about Ballyfitz. He is an exciting young chaser and could run well in the Royal & Sun Alliance next week if he gets his act together. He beat Big Fella Thanks at Cheltenham in November without even knowing he had been in a race – so he definitely has talent. But his profile is very poor as regards the National – not to forget that Twiston Davies is struggling at the moment.
He is a novice.
He has not run in 8 chases.
He has not won 3 chases.
No National/Henessey form.
No course form around Aintree.
plus what Ststemsman covers.
State of Play I have backed a couple of times but strangeley I am rather disappointed that Williams is not giving him around round Chltenham next week. My view on those horses running at Cheltenham is NOT to discount them purely on the basis of running there. If SoP had been chased around in one of the handicaps and finished an easy 6th or 7th, I’d prefer that to him not having a prep run at all.
But my expectation is that L’Ami (11 10)and Garde Champetre (11 12)for example, will have really hard races if they complete the 3m 7f cross-country handicap and so apart from fancying neither anyway, it would put me off even more.
AND JUST SEEN ON THE WIRES, NOTRE PERE IS OUT OF THE GOLD CUP AND VERY UNLIKELY TO RUN AT AINTREE. Dreaper said that he was unlikely to run at Aintree before his injury anyway.
#1006
March 4th, 2009 15:17
NOTRE PERE VERY LIKELY TO MISS THE NATIONAL.
HE WILL MISS THE GOLD CUP.
#1007
March 4th, 2009 15:26
Systemsman Says:
March 4th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
Daniel I stand by every word – i will live or die by the trends/profiles – he has to get a place. Time will tell but i really do want him to get that place.
But last year you agreed to ignore the blinkers trend.
Im not looking to start another stats v not-stats debate, im just saying surely you can see my point; that it is silly to be able to say that if he finishes 4th at Cheltenham you think he is ‘quote’ crap ‘unquote’ but if he comes 3rd (which could be a difference of a nose) then he is the ‘quote’ best ‘unquote’ bet for the GN.
SURELY you can see the flaw in this viewpoint?
#1008
March 4th, 2009 15:40
State Of Play- haven’t backed him yet but will probably do so e/w, such a blot on the handicap if weights don’t rise anymore than 7lbs.
But can he win? No Hennessey winner has ever won GN- I wonder how many have been apparently so well handicapped!! Have now checked the every GN winner since 1960, 99% certain that Specify at 84 days has had the longest lay off, nothing else has come anywhere near him(Aldaniti 52 days, and for future reference, four winners in the 60′s only had 10-14 days between final prep run and GN.)
Come GN day State Of Play will have gone 99 days with a race. I know he won Hennesey fresh but so have many others, I’ve started to look at other chases 4m+ and I can’t see any winners who have had anywhere near such a long lay off.
#1009
March 4th, 2009 15:56
Systemsman Says:
March 4th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
“Butlers Cabin – does he have just the one entry next week? Its do or die for BC – without the 1/2/3 at 25f or more his profile is crap – with it its the best on offer. Whatever the race it will be worth a small EW bet – nothing to hide now.
Daniel I stand by every word – i will live or die by the trends/profiles – he has to get a place. Time will tell but i really do want him to get that place.
WOOOOOOOOH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Very dangerous quote that systemsman.
As no matter where BC finishes his OR at time of weights was 135 and the lowest according to the stats and trends is 136.
The way i look at it is if your going to be lenient on one trend, namely the OR, then you must surely have to take into consideration on how the horse runs if placed 4th or worse rather than the current rend of being placed in top 3.
I respect your hard work you put in every year but just dont want you being too blinded by the trends.
After all you see it makes sense to start looking at French breds if there good enough (Oops did i say the dreaded F word again
) so why not look at a horse if it finishes one place lower down than the current stats tell us.
#1010
March 4th, 2009 16:02
Well said Crisp 73. The stats for the National stand up year after year because it’s such a unique event. Going fresh and winning at 3m 2f is very different to doing so at the GN. SoP is also unproven at anything further than the Hennessay distance which must be a worry. I do rate the horse but as a place only for the National.
#1011
March 4th, 2009 16:02
Crisp the way i look at it regarding State of Play is the horse obviously runs better fresh.
So im not put off by it not having a prep race for 99 days prior to the GN.
Say for arguments sake he was to run at the weekend ran for a mile then pulled up would that make the horse a more attractive proposition for the GN as it had a prep race within the magic 44 day period.
The rise in weights could be more of a problem but i cant honestly see the weights rise more than 5lbs so i am still happy with the weight on SoP.
#1012
March 4th, 2009 16:16
Brian, what 44 day period?
I’m just stating what I’ve seen and read re; days since last run. I know (if I didn’t I bloody well would do so by now because everyone keeps telling me!) that SOP runs best fresh but so have, no doubt, many countless others. Surely 99% of trainers think it a bad thing to have a long lay off before a long distance chase otherwise more would be trying it, so days since last prep run can’t just be coincidence can it?
I’m going to back him so they’ll be no bigger cheers for him than in my house, and the first GN winner to be trained in Wales since 1905, marvellous,(oh I can hear the groans, Crisp is a Taff!) but he will be up against some hefty stats.
#1013
March 4th, 2009 16:35
Ah, should have guessed State of Plays trainer, Williams, was from Wales (I love the Welsh by the way)! Does the fact the Welsh havn’t trained a GN winner since 1905 have a bearing? That’s longer than the French stat thing. Williams isn’t exactly in sparkling form at present – 1 win from 31 tries – at least he’s not peaking too soon.
#1014
March 4th, 2009 16:43
“Surely 99% of trainers think it a bad thing to have a long lay off before a long distance chase otherwise more would be trying it, so days since last prep run can’t just be coincidence can it?”
But this depends entirely on the horse. Most horses do tend to run better after being kept going and benefit from a prep run 3-4 weeks before a big target. You will probably find that the vast majority of horses that line up in April will have had a run in the last 40 or 50 days.
However, looking through SOP’s form gives a big indication that he needs to have long breaks between his races. I don’t expect Evan Williams thinks it’s a great idea to have a long layoff before the race, it’s more of a necessity based on what the horse has done in the past.
Don’t forget also that Mely Moss ran Papillon very close after a 300+ day layoff. Can you say the layoff cost Mely Moss the victory or was he beaten by a better horse? As a very fragile horse a prep-run would probably have meant that he wouldn’t have got to Aintree in the first place.
#1015
March 4th, 2009 16:51
Wasn’t having ago at you crisp i was just saying why SoP not running for a while doesn’t bother me (I prefer it to have not run than too have run more recently)
Sorry dont know why i put 44 days for some reason i thought 7 weeks at 7days a week = 44 days doh!
The recent stats say that a horse should of ran within 7 weeks of the national (your hard work proves otherwise over a longer time although not as long as what SoP is going to try and achieve)
#1016
March 4th, 2009 16:53
Good to see everyone back again. Got to agree with everything that’s been said unfortunately systems. I’ll bide by a stat but will always use my common sense if needs be. I think you can’t have such a fine line between Butler’s Cabin being ‘crap’ and him being ‘the best bet’ based on one place. If he runs a distant third, is that really gonna satisfy you?
However I do agree that Butler’s Cabin is a bad bet and that he seriously needs a good performance. He would have to run considerably well for me to consider backing him for this years national. I didn’t back him last year, and he has done nothing to convince me that I should be doing this year either. If he cums 4th by a nose, its unlikely I’ll be backing him, but that’s not cos of the trends, that’s purely cos at this point in time, I really don’t fancy his chances.
I’m really happy that I don’t fancy any of the top 3 in the market. Getting such good value on the eventual winner. Black Apalachi I really like, but goin to have too much weight and would need softer ground. Butler’s Cabin’s season has been atrocious and I don’t believe he is the same horse. And Big Fella Thanks? What is goin on with this horse? He’s shortened into 17/1 on Betfair these past few days. Are people insane? I would back pretty much every other horse in the eventual 40 than him lol. Would defy almost every trend going if he won lol. Unless there’s some trend we haven’t heard about – All horses with the initials BFT win the National maybe? Ah well keep shortening his odds please losers, its just pushing the eventual winner out
.
Ells
1
#1017
March 4th, 2009 17:04
I personally think that the long lay off did affect Mely Moss just as it probably did Durham Editon, 3 months without a run in 90, Smarty, two months without a run in 01, Clan Royal, four months without a run in 03. All best men, never the groom!
#1018
March 4th, 2009 17:06
Brian, no worries!
#1019
March 4th, 2009 17:07
Back to this top3 C1
#1020
March 4th, 2009 17:11
sorry … back to this top3 C1 chase stat,23/23, anybody looked at all placed horses recently? I’ve started to look and I don’t think there is many without it- Simply Gifted 66/1 3rd in 05 was placed over a C1 hurdle- interestingly Garde(has in hurdles) and Kilbeggan who don’t continue to attract support.
#1021
March 4th, 2009 17:42
“I personally think that the long lay off did affect Mely Moss just as it probably did Durham Editon, 3 months without a run in 90, Smarty, two months without a run in 01, Clan Royal, four months without a run in 03. All best men, never the groom!”
Ah, but was it thr layoff that cost them victory or were there other factors? Durham Edition was having his 3rd crack at the race and was beaten by a horse in the form of its life (won the Whitbread a few weeks later), Smarty didn’t like the heavy ground in ’01 and in 03′ Clan Royal, Lord Atterbury and Hedgehunter went too quick and were just exhausted at the end (hence Hedgehunter’s tired fall and Lord Atterbury finishing distressed).
#1022
March 4th, 2009 18:23
It was 2004 that Hedgehunter fell and for the last time, Clan Royal only lost that race because the jockey completely forgot to aim him at the elbow, instead presuming he was jumping the chair again. Also, Clan Royal had lost its whip halway round the 2nd circuit
Amberleigh House would not have reached him if it were not for the combination of these two things
On a more cheery note, I loved Mely Moss, mainly because i backed him at nice odds, really thought he was going to get up and win but it wasn’t to be….
#1023
March 4th, 2009 18:35
Cannot see anything beyond Rambling Minster and State of Play…
…except Black Apalachi
I had previously dismissed this as a soft ground specialist running for the bookies but have to admit I was very wrong
This horse has improved significantly this season and doesn’t know when to give up – he is as tough a handicapper as there is
I also dispute the fact that he needs soft ground because he put up a very decent performance at Punchestown last April on good ground over 3m 6f (longer than Irish National) – staying on really encouragingly when looking well beaten
The ground is usually watered at Aintree for GN (for Silver Birch’s race the ground was ‘carpet-like’ according to the report – and Silver Birch likes to get his toe in) – so as long as it’s not riding on the fast side of good I think he’ll do very well
He’ll be running of a 23lb higher mark than when he came second last April and is still 11lb well in according to RPR – great progress and only 4 races this season so shouldn’t be over the top
Even off 11’4 I’d consider having a saver on him – but I’ll wait until nearer the day
…and Snowy Morning (if the weights stay the same)
This one was possibly ridden too positively last year and like Hedgehunter a bit more restraint might do the job – excellent form behind Neptune Collonges at Punchestown last April on good ground (which might be franked next week)
If Ruby Walsh is on board then that will be the icing on the cake
So my 4 are RM, SOP, BA and SM
#1024
March 4th, 2009 19:02
HI All
Thanks for gr8 posts.
Haven’t had chance to look at posts last cpl days and now am rushing out. Back 2mo aft
Just a quickie to say I’ve heaped on 33s on SOP
GET IT WHILE YOU CAN GUYS!!
#1025
March 4th, 2009 19:08
I have to say that I feel very releived now I have a full bet on State Of Play, come GN day I would not want to have that one against my short list if 11.00 or under with his record even if I lose on this one I feel the bet is justified.
OK I accept that if BC comes a good 4th he is not completley out of it (but i stand by the 1/2/3 profile) but when using trends/profiles for a short list we do have to have a cut of point (obviously in the week up to the GN its gets a bit easier)- if you dont have some rules your short list gets far too long and already my list has included up to 8/9 runners at one time or another.
Now last year there was no logic behind the blinkers issue. This year coming 1/2 or 3rd in a Chase over 25f or more shows that the horse is still in form and may also still improve rather than on the way down in form – now there is some logic in that is there not (also backed by trends)?
My new short list.
Class 1 winnners
1. Rambling Minster (the best current profile)
1. Butlers Cabin (if 1/2/3rd prior to GN)
1. State Of Play (especiely if 11.01 or under)
Class 2 winners
4. Garde Champetre
4. Kimbeggan Blade
Others with a chance
Need under 11.00 (if over forget it)
6. Black Apalachi
6. Hear The Echo
Watching
Southern Vic – next race “do or die”
Parsons Legacy – will he run – still too high in price.
#1026
March 4th, 2009 19:47
I cant see past sop this year, (unless 8lb rise). If that should happen, does anybody have any thoughts on Offshore Account which i think could be the dark horse this year and hasn’t been mentioned yet. By the way this year is the first time on this site and find it compulsive viewing (wife not happy!!!), thanks to everybody and keep it up.
#1027
March 4th, 2009 19:49
Russell makes a good point about Clan Royal. Its pretty clear he would have won that year. I had both Amberleigh House and Clan Royal so wasnt too bothered :p. However it would be interesting to see which, if any of the trends would be different had he won.
Here’s what I’ve found:
-He was never placed in a class 1. Although he did win in the bechers which at the time was classed as a class 2.
- He only had 1 run the entire season before the Grand National. This was in the bechers, which he won. This was back in November – over 4 months gap.
-Obviously didn’t run in chase after weights were announced and therefore ‘no top 5 in chase after weights announced’.
-T
#1028
March 4th, 2009 19:57
Sorry entered before I had finished:
-Top RPR before race of 147 (just gets in)
- And top TS of only 115.
- Oh, and hes French Bred
Evaluation:
I’m pretty confident in saying without the lack of whip, and the jockeys error, he would have definately won that Grand National. In my opinion one of the unluckiest horses in Grand National history. These stats therefore are good for..
-Horses with long lay offs – State of Play, Parsons Legacy etc (Clan Royal was only given one hurdle race entire season as prep for the next years National in which he was going well before being carried out at 22nd.)
! – Butler’s Cabin, Garde Champetre and L’ami.
-Horses with no run in class 1s. – Garde Champetre, Kilbeggan Blade etc. (Altho as I said, won Bechers, which is now a C1, but at the time, was only C2).
-Posibbly horses with low TS – altho I’d still be cautious of this.
And Finally… – FRENCH BREDS
Make of this what you will and if someone knows something I don’t or I’ve messed up somewhere please let me know. However it does make interesting reading.
I’m going to do McKelvey next time ive got a spare minute as again without the injury entering the home stretch I’m pretty confident he would have won too – drifted all the way across the track. Again I backed both so wasn’t too bothered lol.
Ells
1
#1029
March 4th, 2009 20:54
I do not believe that Clan Royal would have won in 2004…and I had a stack on him, so I’d love to believe I was hard done to.
Yes, it may have been a closer if the horse had taken the shortest route from the final fence and/or the jockey had not lost his whip.
But, having watched the race many times since, I think Clan Royal was almost out of gas two out. So was Lord Atterbury. Meanwhile, Amberleigh House finished superbly from off the pace and would have won by 15 to 20 lengths with an extra furlong.
If Clan Royal had kicked on, what’s to say Amberleigh House wouldn’t have stepped up another gear too? Ifs and buts…
Although not as dramatic, it had hallmarks of Red Rum’s finish to pip Crisp in 1973. Amberleigh House was a real journeyman GN winner and certainly not the classiest. He didn’t fit the classic profile too well either. He was, however, a deserving winner in 2004 in my humble opinion.
P.S. I had a sizeable ante post each way double on Clan Royal (25/1) and Phil Mickelson (16/1) in the US Masters that year. Eight days later I sat in a bar in Tobermory, Mull, on Easter Sunday and winced as Lefty won the Masters with ease ‘costing’ me almost £10,000!! I got a few quid back on the each way bet but it still hurt to be so close, yet so far….
P.P.S. Some great contributions to the blog over the last few days. Thank you. It is fascinating how the fog is slowly clearing. Let’s hope we’re facing the right way when it finally lifts!
#1030
March 4th, 2009 21:14
Has anybody tried the winner predictor tool on this blog – quite a useful tool – if you follow the prompts and fill in the data below , then all of a sudden 100 odd horses become 8
Chase Wins of 3m + at least 1
Season Falls no more than 1
Runs over National Fences at least 0
Career Falls no more than 3
Wins This Season at least 0
Last Race finished in top 6
Weight 9-11 to 11-0
Age 8 to 12
Chase Runs at least 10
Seasonal Runs at least 3
Biggest Chase Win (£’000) at least 20k
Official Rating at least 136 Over
Days since last run N/A at mo
The eight are
Black apalachi
snowy morning
priests leap
rambling minster
southern vic
darkness
kilbeggan blade
garde champetre
Removes all the subjectivity and helps you stick to the trends … if the weights do go up by 5lbs then the 8 becomes 5 …
rambling minster
southern vic
darkness
kilbeggan blade
garde champetre
i believe the winner is in these 5
#1031
March 4th, 2009 21:19
Stayer, you must be a millionaire.
#1032
March 4th, 2009 21:28
Hi guys, found this site last year and have been viewing regular, never posted before as I dont know the first thing about all the trends etc (i backed Character Building a long time ago!) but i do love the national. The last time i went to the national was 18 years ago and I backed seagram to win a couple of days after my 21st, will be back this year as it falls on my 39th birthday, hope its lucky!
So based on all your input i have so far backed:
Character Building(!)
Rambling MInster
Garde Champetre
State of Play
#1033
March 4th, 2009 21:30
Sorry – i should add that the above tool cannot replace the fab work done by systems man , crisp , rascal , pablo etc et etc over the past few months . just thought id reference it as a quick and useful little tool for those whos brain is on the verge of exploding or are hurtling towards the divorce courts for the amount of time theyre spending on this blog ..
#1034
March 4th, 2009 22:03
Silver Birch
“Has anybody tried the winner predictor tool on this blog – quite a useful tool – if you follow the prompts and fill in the data below , then all of a sudden 100 odd horses become 8″
Reply:
Yes all my work has been checked and rechecked on the predictor tool which is why your short list is almost my short list.
However there is still time for some change which is why we are waiting on Southern Vic next race this weekend and the same for BC next week. What makes me confident is that the site tool come out with my list and its also confirmed by Stephens excellent work and my Black Book profile.
1. Rambling Minster
1. Butlers Cabin
1. State Of Play
4. Garde Champetre
4. Kimbeggan Blade
These need under 11.00 (if over forget it)
6. Black Apalachi
6. Hear The Echo
Watching
Southern Vic – next race “do or die”- still a chance.
Parsons Legacy – will he run – still too high in price.
Come on Rambo – bring it on!!
#1035
March 4th, 2009 22:18
yip good approach systems man
its a great tool to ensure your not deviating off the straight and narrow too much and stying close to the trends that have served us well
ill stick with these lot for the time being
rambling minster
southern vic
darkness
state of play
kilbeggan blade
garde champetre
knowhere
miko de beauchene
slowly but surely the pieces seem to be falling in place – looking forward to chelts after which all the facts will be fully known and time for some final refinements and final plunges – great stuff .. one month and counting
#1036
March 4th, 2009 23:14
All this fuss about State of Play. Can a Welsh cow farmer really train a Grand National winner? Evan Williams has won it before….! His 16/1 shot beat the great Golden Miller.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/obituaries/evan-williams-729307.html
#1037
March 4th, 2009 23:23
Agreed SB and Systemsman – definitely helps to keep it simple sometimes and do a sanity check against some broad trends
On another note – and I don’t want to offend anyone – but does anybody else prefer the Aintree Grand National meeting to the Cheltenham Festival or is it just me?
I’ve never really liked the Cheltenham Festival – far too many races, runners and hype and I haven’t placed a bet on it since 2006 when WOA saved my bacon after a very stressful 4 days
For me Aintree is perfect at 3 days and also like that it comes so soon after Cheltenham which means that most Cheltenham runners are running on empty when they show up – more value
Highlight of the racing calendar in my book
#1038
March 5th, 2009 00:23
Silver Birch
If you use Stephens match 21 list with the 5 left.
Then 5 becomes 3.
Rambling Minster
Kilbeggan Blade
Garde Champetre
#1039
March 5th, 2009 01:33
I always get it wrong at cheltenham Pablo, not looked at its endless reams of possibility at all, not my thing, tried and failed with alot of stressing involved, so totally with you there, cross country is my only love there, oh and I’ll watch the gold cup ofcourse… but betting hmmmm nah!.. unless I get a feelin on the day… doh!
Like your new next gen name ‘systemdsman’
#1040
March 5th, 2009 01:55
“Stayer, you must be a millionaire.”
Great riposte. Well worth waiting for.
#1041
March 5th, 2009 03:40
As stated before, going to look at Mckelvey and see what trends he would have broken, if any, had he not picked up tendon injury entering the final stretch and won.
-Didn’t run in a chase after the weights were announced and therefore didn’t come top 5 in a chase after the weights were announced. However did win a C2 hurdles race (I remember this well as I had him at 120s before this race and his odds collapsed
Good memories).
- No top 5 in Henn, top 3 in national, top 2 over aintree fences. Only one win at 25f and 1 at 32f. However did win C1 4 mile chase at Uttoxeter.
- Top RPR of only 146 before GN. (Need 144+).
- Top TS of 127 before GN. (Need 126+).
Evaluation: Nothing like as many trend breaks as Clan Royal j ust the Top 5 Henn,top 3 National trend etc. Although like I say, won a 4mile C1 chase at Utt.
More interestingly like Clan Royal, only just scrapes in on the RPR and just passes on TS (which Clan Royal failed on). Think I’m going to treat these as lesser trends now based on this. Not a huge fan of them anyways as they aren’t objective. Calculated by the Racing Post.
I’ve got to say I disagree on Clan Royal. Its my favourite National and the one I’ve watched more than any. Love how Jim McGrath states that there’s ’3 major chances in this years Grand National’. No one even spots Amberleigh House till late.
Watching it so many times and my opinion till hasn’t changed. I personally feel Clan Royal would have without doubt won that National. He must lose at least 3 lengths going the wrong way, plus the rider having no whip means it would difficult to keep the horse going. The horse should have won that race. Plus comparing it to Crisp v Red Rum only further solidifies this claim. It is generally accepted that had Pitman not made the mistake at the elbow then Crisp would have held on.
Anyways each to there own. Just thought it would be interesting to analyse these two potenial (should have been) winners and see how the trends would be affected.
The Clan Royal profile really gives hope to SOP and the French Breds.
Got to say, I can’t wait for Cheltenham! Unlike some others I have to admit, I love it, win or lose. The more races the better for me.
Ells
1
#1042
March 5th, 2009 06:29
If we look at C/S 34 past GN winners.
27 have taken the Hennessy etc. route.
7 have taken the 3x24f wins inc. 1x28f route.
The last winner to take the 3x24f etc. route was Lord Gyllene, 12 years ago in ’97. So are we due one ?
3 of our top horses have this profile.
1 – Rambling Minster
2 – Kilbeggan Blade
3 – Garde Champetre
Only 2 others match this profile on Stephens 21 list – Chelsea Harbour and Himalayan Trail.
#1043
March 5th, 2009 09:38
Stayer-
Did you know during March 90 that Mr.Frisk was about to run in to probably the best form of his life?
Did you know in March 01 that the going at Aintree for the GN was going to be heavy?
Did you know that in March 04, Hedgehunter, Clan Royal and Lord Atterbury, as you put it, were going to go to fast?
#1044
March 5th, 2009 09:51
I don’t see what your point is with that last post Crisp.
In order to back up your stat regarding runs within the last 40/50 days you used a few examples of horses that came second after a layoff. Now, whilst fitness MAY have been an issue in these cases, there are other factors that contributed to their defeat. Yes, the defeats uphold your stat, but the fact that horses have got pretty close to winning after a break means I can’t totally put a line through them, especially horses like SOP that require a break to be at their best.
#1045
March 5th, 2009 10:05
I doubted you would Stayer.
It’s not my stat, I didn’t invent it, it is a fact. 47/48 GN winners raced within 8 weeks of the race. If you don’t think that is interesting that’s your business. That stat is very useful for an all round picture of what might happen which is after all what this blog is all about because we don’t know for sure what will happen.
#1046
March 5th, 2009 10:28
Its easy to brush off Clan Royal’s narrow defeat, but IF he had won, then a lot of the trends would have taken a hit, including the dreaded FRENCH BRED one!
For the record Amberleigh House wasn’t going away at the end despite Graham Lee driving him out, the gap got to a few lengths and that was the maximum. I can’t for the life of me see how Clan Royal loses that race if he goes straight to the elbow. Combine that with putting a whip in Cooper’s hand and the chance of Amberleigh House getting up is v v small in my opinion. But we shall never know
He was also so unlucky to get carried out at Bechers 2nd circuit a year later when absolutely steaming in about 10 lengths clear.
i’m with Lough Derg about Mckelvey, but i had him backed at 100s withut silver birch. Now that was his race for the taking. Tendon injury in the last furlong? Talk about unlucky, each time i watch that race im sure he is going to get there, Mcgrath “and Mckelyey is coming home like a train”
#1047
March 5th, 2009 12:35
Just to add a few £££££££££’s for the “GN War Chest” here is my banker for Cheltenham (in past years I have often run a double on my banker + GN selections/s)
BANKER (take to odds today)
World Hurdle – 12/03/2009
Kasbah Bliss to win at 11/10 (Coral/Lad)
Full cover on Punchestowns at 4/1 (Coral/WH)
Thus:
£50 to win on KB would returns £55
£12.50 win on Pun would return £50
Profit £42.50 for £62.50 investment (money returned if Pun wins)
Anyone who saw Kasbah bliss last run has to be impressed (such speed which will see him up that hill – only just failed lasy year and a better horse this year G3 flat winner this year!!! (and did well in a G1 flat). I was a fan of Pun (who will beat BB) until I saw KB run again – what a monster of a horse!!
It will be my only Cheltenham bet other than any systems bets that may or maynot be at Cheltehham (the World Hrle is very likely to be one from what i can see of the race profile)
Any more suggestions for the GN War Chest?
#1048
March 5th, 2009 12:39
Must get my name right – its “Systemsman”
And Wacky, Kasbah Bliss is French!!!!!!!!
The monster will win doing hand stands up the hill! (great respect for Punchestowns though – just one to good I think)
#1049
March 5th, 2009 12:46
I was on both Clan Royal and Amberleigh House in that showdown! and I willed what even people on tv called a donkey! to win. You can’t change history, jockey error is part of the race and unluckily for Clan he was always the nearly guy. The fairytale was Amberleigh,. plodder wins! I had watched some of his great prep runs that year esp. working on him finishing with more umph! and speed which he lacked. Great training example.. but where was the humble apology from the likes of Clare Balding? Plodders can win and that worries me this year with Kilbeggan! if the only horse infront of him is at the end of its run ‘the plough’ will win!
One more thing, although the ‘blinkers’ shouldn’t obviously rule horses out, as people did last year, it IS a slight worry. I think it is sensible to remember that COD ran around the outside and any horse in blinkers (or without) is safer there. Think Rambo will be out there and hopefully the rest of my stayers.
#1050
March 5th, 2009 13:03
I think it’s a tough call as to whether or not Clan Royal would have won against Amberleigh House
But the year Clan Royal was way out in front before being carried out – I am as certain as I can be that that horse that year was going way too fast to win
The horse clearly had some issues which even the best jockey couldn’t control completely (with or without a whip in hand)
#1051
March 5th, 2009 13:14
grand national war chest david nich.mares race tues.chelt. get on QUEVEGA mullins best chance of week,and you can still get 7/2. i am on big time at 9/2.
other value e/w good chances are whiteoak smurfit 33/1
psycho vince o’brien 10/1
planet of sound arkle 10/1
love cheltenham as i do g.nat.just don’t get carried away by all the hype and so called tips and bankers,go with your own judgement.
#1052
March 5th, 2009 13:25
Couldn’t concur more with what you’re saying Russell. Totally agree.
KJ I’m not re-writing history. However what I am saying is that ‘rider losing his whip’ or ‘being ridden wrongly’ wasn’t something we could have predicted when viewing Clan Royal’s profile. You can’t hold that against the horse, and if we accept he would have, or there was a good chance he would have on that race, then I just figured it would be interesting to see which of the trends would be broken had he (or Mckelvey) won as I believe they would have both won, had it not been for *non-horse profile related* incidents.
From this research I still intend to hold up the ‘placed in a C1 stat’ as Clan Royal won the Bechers which is oviously a decent race. I feel Garde Champetre has won some decent races including the x-country at the Cheltenham Festival, and has done all this mainly under huge weight. Therefore I’m willing to let this go.
The mckelvey trend brings up Stephens (sorry if I’ve got the wrong person) stat on the Top 5 Hennessy etc. I assume the reason we hold this trend is because it shows that a horse has proven stamina/has class or can jump the course. As there are many permutations to how a horse can meet this trend I’ve always said I’m very liberal when applying it. For example if a horse has won Midlands National or placed when staying on. If I watch a horse run staying on in a decent race that was at like 26-27f then I might allow it. I think of all the stats this is one were I’m willing to be subjective to each horse. Great trend tho I must say, not taking anything away from it.
Finally makes room for horses with a lay off and french breds – which I allow anyways.
Keep up the good work everyone!
Ells
1
#1053
March 5th, 2009 13:39
Re GN war chest:
I’d be tempted to back Katchit for a place in Champion on Betfair if I could get 5/1 or better but nothing else appeals
Irish Raptor should go well if entered for Topham (2nd last year, 2lb lower, never fallen over GN fences at Aintree in 4 attempts, possibly best ever run (almost!) against Darkness the other day) – hope he bypasses the Cheltenham festival
#1054
March 5th, 2009 14:32
Only had a look at the big races so far, but my banker at the moment, aside from Kasbah Bliss as mentioned, would be Walkon in the Triumph Hurdle.
#1055
March 5th, 2009 14:39
Clarified in the Jewson is one to consider
#1056
March 5th, 2009 19:02
The Cheltenham Festival also provides a number of key stats for various races, and I will be posting a few of these here over the next few days.
I will be having a number of bets in order to boost the Grand National fund, and will be placing some doubles with some of my leading Grand National fancies.
#1057
March 5th, 2009 19:03
Garde Cameptre- 33s on paddy power and they paying 5 places, i know we don’t like backing horse for a place but this to me looks like a better butler of black apalachi.
i wouldn’t be prepared to back bc before cheltenham as someone says if he goes well it will likely be 10s compared to 14s so.
£1ew buttler cabin @ 10s – win £12.50 place £2.50
£1ew garde @ 33s – win £43.25 place £9.25
Now what is the better prospect and the least risk?
#1058
March 5th, 2009 19:07
should have said better bet than butlers or black app
#1059
March 5th, 2009 19:21
As regards Cheltenham,
L’AMI should go well in the cross country race.
BENSALEM, I fancy really strongly in the Albert Bartlett.
But the banker ofthe whole meeting is VOY POR ESTEDES and I am lucky enough to be on at 6/1. I think he has way less competition than KASBAH BLISS (would not rule out entirely PUNCHESTOWNS, BIG BUCKS or FAIR ALONG).
I have a double on VOY and KASBAH and so I hope they do both win!
As for a big price horse who may be interesting – HARPER VALLEY in the county hurdle. Third off level weights behing Binocular and Celestial Halo at Aintree last year (beaten 20 lengths admittedly) – and is in the County Hurdle off of 10st 9lbs. Worth a look – especially now that non-runner no bet is here.
#1060
March 5th, 2009 19:26
£1 e/w on Butler’s Cabin at 10/1 – where is the value?
A 25% profit for a place on a horse that has achieved nothing for 2 years except fall in a race over a mile from home 12 months ago
‘Going like the winner’ – and falling over a mile from home – brilliant! Tell that to your bank manager
#1061
March 5th, 2009 19:28
75% profit sorry but still poor
#1062
March 5th, 2009 19:38
yes exactly what i’m saying that a ew on garde or a decent horse at 33s likely to get a place is better than a butlers or black app at 10 who are looking dodgey to win
sorry typed it wrong at the start
#1063
March 5th, 2009 19:55
5 places handy for a French horse too!
#1064
March 5th, 2009 20:30
Just trying to ascertain what trends are considered as the key trends before compiling my shortlist at this stage.
Winner of a race at 3m+
Winner of a Class 1 or Class 2 race
Weight Below 11stone 1lb
Age 8 to 12
Chase Runs at least 10
2-6 seasonal runs
Won a race at least 17K value
Official Rating at least 135
Days since last run 20-49 (unless horse has a proven record of being best fresh)
Career Racing Post Ratings of 144+
Career Topspeed Rating of 128+
Top 3 in Grade 1 event
Placed in top five in Hennessy, top 3 in National, first 2 over Grand National fences, or 3 x 3 mile+ wins, including 1 x 28f+
Place percentage of around 40% in completed chases.
Can someone please confirm whether the Top 3 in Grade 1 event is purely for chase races, and also includes hurdle races.
Also, I believe I saw a stat on here that stated that horses had won within their last ten outings unless injured for a long time. Is this correct, and what was the percentage on this stat?
Also, are there any good stats relating to finishing positions in National winning season?
Thanks for the anticipated feedback guys.
#1065
March 5th, 2009 21:28
Performance Factor I’ll be suprised if you dont come up with the same list as me with those trends.
Carefull with TS (I think its 125 [?} for the last ten years and as low as 111 to cover the last 12 years or so(I used TS 111 as the min for the pre-christmas winners profile just to be safe).
Ran a few of your trends (the ones it would allow – Admin can we add a few more options for next year?)in this sites Grand National Runners Analysis Tool. It came out with:
BC
RM
KB
SV
SOP
MM
Dar
Fun (100/1)
AW (150/1
#1066
March 5th, 2009 21:47
Well, I reckon these are the 11 horses from the last ten years which have finished in the frame (1,2,3 or 4) in the GN after running in the Chelteham Festival between 16 days and 32 days earlier.
No Cheltenham winner has gone on to win the GN during this period. Which begs the question…name the last Cheltenham winner to win the GN in the same year? If I have an idle moment I may do some rummaging….
Only one Cheltenham winner over the last ten years has been placed in the GN – What’s Up Boys (2002 runner-up to Bindaree), 23 days after coming 5th in the Gold Cup.
Two GN winners raced at Cheltenham some 32 days (Silver Birch, 2007) and 25 days (Bindaree, 2002) earlier.
2008: None
2007:
1, Silver Birch 2nd over 3m7f at Cheltenham
3, Slim Pickings 5th 2m5f
2006:
2, Hedgehunter 2nd 3m2f (Gold Cup)
2005:
2, Royal Auclair 4th (GC) 3m2f
3, Simply Gifted 3rd 2m 5f
2004:
3, Lord Atterbury PU 3m2f
2003: None
2002:
1, Bindaree 7th 3m3f
2, What’s Up Boys 5th 3m2f (GC)
3, Blowing Wind 1st 2m3f
2001: None
2000:
3, Niki Dee PU 3m1f
1999:
4, Addington Boy 5th 3m2f (GC)
#1067
March 5th, 2009 21:49
Systemsman, thank you for your input, and all the hard work you put in on here. It is very much appreciated.
Can you clarify the grande 1 place. Is that purely in chase races?
Also, what is your opinion on finishing place in previous race, as I note the top 5 is a 10/12 trend! Do you know if any other stats are available for current season placings?
Also do you have any feedback on the winning within last 10 outings stat?
#1068
March 5th, 2009 22:05
Rambo latest:
Ladbrookes now 16/1 – looks like all the money from the fans on this site (and me) has piled in!
Now lets take out that 20/1 left at Corals (will it last till tomorrow night?)
Top 4
BA 12/1 (Lad) 13/1 (Betfair)
BC 14/1 (Lad) 13.5/1 (Betfair)
RM 16/1 (Lad) 16.5/1 (Betfair)
BFT 20/1 (Lad) 16.5/1 (Betfair)
#1069
March 5th, 2009 22:29
Performance
“Can you clarify the grande 1 place. Is that purely in chase races?
Also, what is your opinion on finishing place in previous race, as I note the top 5 is a 10/12 trend! Do you know if any other stats are available for current season placings?
Also do you have any feedback on the winning within last 10 outings stat?”
Reply:
Sorry none of these are my trends. Can anyone else help?
I do believe the placed in Class one is refering to a Chase only.
I dont use “finishing place in previous race, as I note the top 5 is a 10/12 trend!”- but worth noting as a extra check (but not to exclude on its own).
I do use 1/2 or 3rd in a Chase at 25f or more in GN season for my short list (BC still needs to do it).
The winning in last 10 outings is not mine so I cant comment other than use it as another extra check (but not one to exclude on its own)
Try this ammended trends list which i think will give you my own short list or clsoe to it.
Winner of a race at 3m+
Winner of a Class 1 or Class 2 race
Weight at or below 11stone 1lb
Age 8 to 12
Chase Runs at least 10 (9 if it has a run planned for Cheltenham)
2-6 seasonal runs
Won a race at least 17K value
Official Rating at least 135
Days since last run 20-49 (unless horse has a proven record of being best fresh)-[note: thats 29 to 49 days from GN race day]
Career Racing Post Ratings of 144 or more
Career Topspeed Rating of 128 or more {give a +](but do not excude on this one trend – allow TS 111 as min) [give a -]. NO TS 111 exclude.
Top 3 in Grade 1 event or Class 2 winner.
Placed in top five in Hennessy, top 3 in National, first 2 over Grand National fences, or 3 x 3 mile+ wins, including 1 x 28f+
Place percentage of around 40% in completed chases.
I will be very interested to know the complete list (hope you spot the small changes i made). Would be worth a list with and without (two lists) a 1/2/3 place in a Class 1 chase.
You could try adding a OR max of 150 (which would include SOP ofcourse)or some other figure.
#1070
March 5th, 2009 22:32
doubt the last of the 33s for SoP will last much longer either
#1071
March 5th, 2009 22:33
stock up at the bank of will hill on SoP
#1072
March 5th, 2009 22:39
Hey, Not quite sure just how accurate that runners analysis tool is, no disrepect to Admin. I was surprised at systems results after not seeing L’ami appearing as I know he meets the trends, hence why he’s made my shortlist. Anyway, went to try it out myself and he didn’t come up. Checked his profile on sporting life to make sure he did and I was right. Then took away all restrictions other than being between 9-11 and 11-12 and there’s only 46 horses – surely we need to be analysing the entire field?
Also Garde Champetre doesn’t come up because you put minimum win of 20k and not 17k. Even tho he has a win of 19k according to the site. Someone correct me if im wrong but was the x-country chase at Cheltenham festival last year not worth 50k?
Think im gnna stick to doing it myself.
Ells
1
#1073
March 5th, 2009 23:07
Systems, I think the stats I had mentioned, together with your shrewd amendments, make a terrific profile to find the winner! I will be looking at the race again over the weekend and will post my shortlist on Sunday, although it already is very similar to yours.
I already have a minimum return of 1.2K secured on Rambling Minster, Darkness, Garde Champetre and Butlers Cabin, so am happy with those at the moment. Obviously State of Play is the other runner that stands out at the moment, but I am not convinced he will be under 11-1 on the day. I still believe Cloudy Lane will be top-weight, which would mean the weights go up 8lb! Does anyone else have any strong views on this?
#1074
March 5th, 2009 23:39
Think Nozic might run which will mean 7lb rise in the weights
Star de Mohaison and Notre Pere look very unlikely
The two at the very top are in Gold Cup so not really sure
Snoopy Loopy enetered for everything but probably better off going for BetFred at Sandown – nowadays noone takes it seriously apart from Thommo on Channel 4 – even Monkerhostin won it recently – too close to Aintree and Punchestown where proper racing takes place
#1075
March 5th, 2009 23:44
Performance Factor,
Peter Bowen is trying to win the Order of Merit with Snoopy Loopy and the horse has been given a bit of a break after a heavy autumn/winter schedule. I’m sure the horse will have a busy end to the season to try and win it and can see him taking in Cheltenham, Aintree and Ayr or Sandown if necessary. He could line up in the Betfair Bowl though as its a GD2 and is worth more points the National – 3rd in that would get the same points as winning the National. I guess it partly depends on how he and his OOM rivals fair at Cheltenham but also the priorities of the owners – do they want to win the £200k OOM pot or would they prefer a crack at the National?
#1076
March 6th, 2009 00:02
Has ALWAYS WAINING had much of a mention? OK, he won’t win unless the ghost of Foinavon returns. But 150/1!! Not guaranteed to line up, I know.
Worth a little tickle? Should I break open little Emily’s piggy bank for a cheeky fiver each way?
C1 winner over three miles (I think), never fallen. Trainer reckons he can run forever. Young but plenty of miles on the clock as they say. Not far off the classic GN profile. Could he conceivably plod his way to a place at big, big odds?
#1077
March 6th, 2009 01:21
Systemsman Says:
March 5th, 2009 at 10:05 pm
Rambo latest:
Ladbrookes now 16/1 – looks like all the money from the fans on this site (and me) has piled in!
Now lets take out that 20/1 left at Corals (will it last till tomorrow night?)
Why do you want a shorter price on Rambo ?
Rambo still available @ 20/1 in many places.
20/1 will still be available at least until next week,Ladbrokes made it 16/1 last weekend,due to them being the last to offer 25/1.
None of the others have followed.Let it be 9/1 on the day yes,but lets not try and encourage the shortening of our fav please.
#1078
March 6th, 2009 02:47
Just beginning my analysis of the stats, and cannot seem to find a Grade 1 placing for Rambling Minster, as per the 23/23 trend earlier on the blog. Perhaps I have missed it! MAybe somebody could confirm this fact?
#1079
March 6th, 2009 03:13
Hi Performance
I think I can clear this up. At times people use the word Grade instead of Class. As you know there is a difference. The trend you are looking at is top 3 in a CLASS 1. Doubt many of the previous National winners actually placed in a GRADE 1 lol. As Rambo won a class 1 last time out he without doubt meets this stat. Hope this helps
Ells
1
#1080
March 6th, 2009 09:15
To add to the last comment Grades 1, 2 and 3 are all Class 1
And Listed is too
Useful to know for assessment of Irish & French form
On the subject of weight carried & sorry to state the obvious…
This is clearly an issue with some very well handicapped horses failing to win when carrying over 11’1 – Take The Stand was 20+lb well in in 2005 but had to carry 11’5 for example
However handicapping clearly means that, other things equal, the better horses have more weight – it doesn’t mean that a horse used to carrying 11’12 (such as Garde Champetre) will suddenly sprout wings because it is carrying a mere 10’0 on its back
Its all relative to the horses and class of horses its competing against and how much weight they have (much less to do with how tall they are)
Think of a yo-yo football club – too poor for the Premiership but arguably too good for the Championship
Generally trainers are creatures of habit and the issue of class almost becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy with horses deliberately run (often at the wrong trip or on the wrong ground) at a higher class until the weight comes down and then conveniently dropped into a lower class race to win off a big weight – class usually tells
If it comes to a choice between a horse with Class 1 form and a horse with winning Class 2 form but no form in Class 1 – I’d take the Class 1 form every time
This is why I cannot have a decent bet on Kilbeggan Blade although once he’s had another run he might reach the required rating to be considered for a bet – so if I do bet it’ll only be a small saver – he has never completed a Class 1 chase
#1081
March 6th, 2009 10:01
“Has ALWAYS WAINING had much of a mention? OK, he won’t win unless the ghost of Foinavon returns. But 150/1!! Not guaranteed to line up, I know.
Worth a little tickle? Should I break open little Emily’s piggy bank for a cheeky fiver each way?
C1 winner over three miles (I think), never fallen. Trainer reckons he can run forever. Young but plenty of miles on the clock as they say. Not far off the classic GN profile. Could he conceivably plod his way to a place at big, big odds?”
Johnny,
I’m quite keen on Always Waining to be honest and I know one or two others that are too. He meets most of the stats (the ones I go by anyway) and is a better horse on decent ground so his last two runs can be forgiven. Good to see that the horse is still in the William Hill next week and I may take the 150/1 before that. On good ground he’s no 150/1 shot.
#1082
March 6th, 2009 10:56
Thank you for the clarification of the Top 3 in Class 1 stat, I think I was having a blonde moment!
I previously raised a point concerning “number of times since last success”. I believe I saw a post that stated that all recent winners had won within their last ten runs (or 18 months -can’t quite remember what it was) unless thay had been out for a considerable period with injury (ie Silver Birch),
Does anybody have any further info on this stat, as it would clearly indicate horses that are out of form or lost the winning habit.
Thank you for your efforts
#1083
March 6th, 2009 10:57
Regarding Always Waining, as far as i know in the last 20 or so years no horse has won the National after pulling up twice in that season. I appreciate AW prefers good ground, but would still have preferred to see him finish
The only real outsider I half fancy is Brooklyn Brownie but he has not run since November and doesn’t have any entries, and so I will steer clear.
there is another thread on this site which lists the National runners at Cheltenham. It lists Mon Mome as one of those but I can’t see it declared in any of the races. I’ll assume it was withdrawn unless anyone knows otherwise?
#1084
March 6th, 2009 11:08
No Cheltenham winner has gone on to win the GN during this period. Which begs the question…name the last Cheltenham winner to win the GN in the same year? If I have an idle moment I may do some rummaging….
Seagram is 1991, having won, I think, the William Hill Trophy at the festival, although I could be wrong.
He was the first horse to do the double for 40 odd years!
#1085
March 6th, 2009 11:13
Performance- Still researching but I think that this is a long term stat- GN winners have won one of their last ten chases. In recent times only Ben Nevis ’80- is odd man out, he came over from USA in 78 and ran 12 times in Europe without a win, according to reports.
#1086
March 6th, 2009 11:27
Stocked up on last vestiges of SOP silly odds @33s on Willhill. Only them and Corals remain at 33s.
Re Comply or Die comment – No Rambo is only available with 20s on 3 bookmakers now (boyles into 16s and WH no odds just now are recompiling), so not correct at all to say ‘none others have followed suit’ in shoretening Rambo.
Re Systemsman or if he’s in a cool dude mode he calls himself SystemsDman
I also share his enthusiasm re price dropping for a number of reasons
1 – it makes you feel great and your fun and research worthwhile as a gem you have discovered is found by others and the price plummets
2 Of course in my case I also have odds stacked by to lay off on Rambling Minister.
#1087
March 6th, 2009 11:30
COMPLY OR DIE
“Why do you want a shorter price on Rambo ?
Rambo still available @ 20/1 in many places.
20/1 will still be available at least until next week,Ladbrokes made it 16/1 last weekend,due to them being the last to offer 25/1.”
Reply.
Wrong! The only High Street bookie with 20/1 this morning is Coral otherwise its 16/1 (WH have no quote). Many,many visitors to this site will only bet on the High Street (as i do) and dont use internet bets (investments!). So for them its now or never for the 20/1.
Yes there is a good cgance of the 20/1 lasting a few more days but why take the risk as Corals are out on a limb with regard to the other three big High Street bookies.
For me its about everyone getting a good free family holiday in the sun this year and those new to this site need to be aware that Ramling Minster is the best trends horse (currently) and 20/1 is the best High Street price but not for much longer.
So I say take the 20/1 and hammer those bookies! – lets make it hurt this year. We can all have fun in the sun this summer!!
#1088
March 6th, 2009 11:35
Quality
#1089
March 6th, 2009 12:00
Anyone know why Hills seem to have taken Rambo out of their betting? I’m hoping that they are just going about re-pricing him and have not heard something that the rest of the bookies have not.
#1090
March 6th, 2009 12:19
I think they may have had a substantial amount of money on him on doubles where the first part has won (which is the only way to get more money on than they would let you have on a single). He will shorten. 16/1 or shorter
#1091
March 6th, 2009 12:27
Stayer read my earlier post today.
I was told on phone they are re-pricing him.
#1092
March 6th, 2009 12:28
That’s a relief!! Was hoping that WH hadn’t got hold of some info suggesting that Rambo would miss the race.
#1093
March 6th, 2009 12:37
It’s a mixed chalice of an info titbit though isn’t it lol?
I will only be fully happy when they have posted up the new odds for him on WH (still down at mo).
#1094
March 6th, 2009 12:43
Me too Showlad!! His Betfair price is holding up though and that’s normally the first indicator that something has happened.
#1095
March 6th, 2009 12:54
My answer of ‘recompiling’ I was told came from the very top, I made sure it wasn’t an ‘admin’ or ‘supervisor’ reply – this was from the odds compiling team, so hopefully all well
#1096
March 6th, 2009 13:30
Away from Rambo, the decs are in for the weekend action and we have some Irish hopefuls running in the Leinster National at Naas on Sunday:
Chelsea Harbour 11-10
Preists Leap 11-8
Southern Vic 11-5.
In the National they are set to carry 11-1, 10-11 and 10-1 respectively so Southern Vic is much worst off with the other two than he will be at Aintree. If he runs them both close I would be very encouraged. Less encouraging is the fact that “b1″ is by his name on the racecard. Maybe they are trying them to make him focus on his fences a bit more? It worries me slightly.
#1097
March 6th, 2009 13:55
Southern Vic beginning to worry me
If he does well on Sunday then he is likely to become the 4th qualifier on my ratings after:
Rambo ***** bet
Black Apalachi (waiting until nearer the time to bet)
Notre Pere (possibly too much weight and likely to miss race – no bet)
With State Of Play (*** bet) not far behind but penalised by for not having run for ages (a half decent performance in a run would make him qualify too)
So the only reasons not to go with Southern Vic for me are:
1) Yet to post a decent RPR this season
2) Strong Gale (although he is Old Vic’s son – as is COD and BA)
A good run on Sunday and I’ll have to wager in with a decent bet – a poor run and no way I’d touch him – tempted to have a saver now
#1098
March 6th, 2009 14:17
“A good run on Sunday and I’ll have to wager in with a decent bet – a poor run and no way I’d touch him – tempted to have a saver now”
#1099
March 6th, 2009 14:19
Should have said “Agreed” (my bet was on at Xmas – still hoping for a run for my money – we will see this weekend)
#1100
March 6th, 2009 14:56
I agree SM it is all about us getting a free holiday,I like your thinking,CoD is paying for my next 5.
However Rambo is still available at 20/1 @ Blue square,Victor chandler,William Hill (been in this morning and asked)along with Coral Boyles only moved the price this morning.
Good luck
#1101
March 6th, 2009 15:11
“I think we will try the same tactics at Kempton even though it is back over further – a lot of Old Vic’s have been sharpened up by putting blinkers on, including Old Vic”
Comments by trainer about Snoopy Loopy (although I don’t remember Old Vic wearing blinkers)
Comply Or Die and Black Apalachi two other horses to wear headgear and do well
So maybe Southern Vic ok
#1102
March 6th, 2009 15:19
Anyone agreed that now is the time to get Rambo for the equivalent of 40-1 – thinking of doubling up with Kasbah or Voy Por – the latter has to be my banker of the meeting – look out for Clarified in the Jewson – a good word out for this one – will be in under 11st and we all know what Tony Martin is capable of at Cheltenham
#1103
March 6th, 2009 15:23
If the other 4 including 888.com do drop before
Corals lets hope its an omen,since Corals
were the last to offer the 25/1 about Comply
or Die last year which I felt obliged to make
the most of their generousity.
#1104
March 6th, 2009 15:43
Silver Birch drifted massively today on Betfair. Anybody know why? I know they always planned to pull him out of the x-country race at Cheltenham, don’t suppose they withdrew him today or something and people have taken the wrong reaction to it?
I know his next race is due to be a hurdle at Navan on March 15th. Although no entries for that yet. Anybody any news? Just struck me as a big drift.
Thanks
Ells
1
#1105
March 6th, 2009 15:50
Performance Factor Says:
March 5th, 2009 at 11:07 pm
I already have a minimum return of 1.2K secured on Rambling Minster, Darkness, Garde Champetre and Butlers Cabin, so am happy with those at the moment. Obviously State of Play is the other runner that stands out at the moment, but I am not convinced he will be under 11-1 on the day. I still believe Cloudy Lane will be top-weight, which would mean the weights go up 8lb! Does anyone else have any strong views on this?
I totally agree PF, I’m going to wait and see on SoP until final overnight decs and all withdrawals. Cloudy Bay is the top weight 100% certain to run for me all others above in the weights are questionnables which puts SoP on an unwinable weight, he’s good but no Red Rum or Hedgehunter. All will become clearer though after the festival and the 17th forfeit stage, fingers crossed none of mine are withdrawn.
Really looking forward to seeing Southern Vic run on Sunday and have my fingers crossed for a strong run.
#1106
March 6th, 2009 15:50
Nice idea about doing a few doubles J Rambo.
I’ve just had a nibble at Binocular & Rambling Minster, just under 50/1.
Just a bit of fun really, but might boost the coffers!
#1107
March 6th, 2009 15:57
@lough re: Silver Birch drift
Not backed him myself but that drift wouldn’t overly concern me as its only being laid for peanuts, if there was serious money stacked to lay him that’d be a diff matter. With everyone complete keyed on the festival right now I doubt there is much liquidity in the GN AP market so outsiders prices will drift in and out for peanuts sums of money. Character Building has been up and down like a yo-yo last couple of weeks when I’ve looked from 45-90.
#1108
March 6th, 2009 16:08
Ref. Cheltenham I’m shocked a self confessed stats man like Systemsdaman would overlook the most crucial Cheltenham trend, that its a banker/short priced fav graveyard. From memory last year I think only 5 of 25 favs won! And if you’d consistently backed all short price 2/1 shots or less for even stakes over the last few festivals you’d be well out of pocket now. IMO this is because Cheltenham is the one place where EVERYONE is trying and not holding anything back unlike the usual fiddling that’ll be going on at a midweek meet so all races are relatively open affairs with plenty of potential winners making favs poor value compared to bigger priced horses.
Cheltenham banker… doesn’t exist*
*Except Masterminded who only has to jump round to win, he’s so good the mighty star of the king powerhouse stable is afraid to take him on and has sloped off with tail firmly between his legs
Ofc the bookies know this so he’s near unbackable currently so I’ve doubled him with Bino, who’ll probably go and let me down now being a favourite 
#1109
March 6th, 2009 16:12
an 8lb rise would put State of PLay on 11 stone 2, which I consider to be a winnable weight (not ideal, but winnable)
For a long time, people said you had to have 10_13 or less, but Hedgehunter raised the bar by 2lb; I dont see why it cant go up one more, which would still be one less than Corbiere’s win carrying 11_03 in 83, and 2 less than Grittar the year before carrying 11_04.
1lb is not a lot of weight remember! A decent sized steak, that is all!!
#1110
March 6th, 2009 16:13
Binocular is one of the worst bets of the festival from a value point of view IMO.
Plenty to take him on with at the ridiculous price of 5/4.
Katchit for me is an ew steal at 14/1.
#1111
March 6th, 2009 16:37
Was referring to Voy Por as my festival banker “in my opinion” – this is a game of opinions after all
#1112
March 6th, 2009 16:40
Fair point Daniel but is State of Play another Hedgehunter? May have decent form over shorter distances but his Hennesy win and decent Gold Cup performance 2 years ago are the furthest he’s ever been (3M 2 1/2f). Hedgehunter, at least knew what the GN was all about having been in contention at the last the previous year. In fact, had he been run differently, he might have won then as an 8yo. It’s true that 1lb is not a lot but winning with 11_1 is a massive task. I’m afraid I wouldn’t fancy him with any more than, say, 10_10. He’s run in 2 HC Chases in the last 2 years and there was nothing in those performances to say that he’ll improve a great deal for the extra distance where the weight will tell more.
#1113
March 6th, 2009 16:47
I c Ruby Walsh booked to partner Southern Vic on Sunday . Will be interesting to c what happens if he performs well.. is ruby obliged to ride the p nicholls horses bigfella thanks or my will could he conceivably ride his dads horse….??
#1114
March 6th, 2009 16:49
Notelppa Says:
March 6th, 2009 at 4:40 pm
Fair point Daniel but is State of Play another Hedgehunter? May have decent form over shorter distances but his Hennesy win and decent Gold Cup performance 2 years ago are the furthest he’s ever been (3M 2 1/2f). Hedgehunter, at least knew what the GN was all about having been in contention at the last the previous year. In fact, had he been run differently, he might have won then as an 8yo. It’s true that 1lb is not a lot but winning with 11_1 is a massive task. I’m afraid I wouldn’t fancy him with any more than, say, 10_10. He’s run in 2 HC Chases in the last 2 years and there was nothing in those performances to say that he’ll improve a great deal for the extra distance where the weight will tell more.
Astute observations as always…
From what you say there, I would say you dont fancy him at all. If you are concerned re trip, it doesnt matter what weight he is carrying really!
We don’t know he will stay, but we didnt know that about a fair few other winners as well, Numbersixvalverde most recently.
#1115
March 6th, 2009 16:51
Daniel Edwards Says:
March 6th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
Binocular is one of the worst bets of the festival from a value point of view IMO.
Plenty to take him on with at the ridiculous price of 5/4.
Katchit for me is an ew steal at 14/1.
People said that about MM at evens last year against VPU, personally just think Bino could turn out to be a bit special too and win it in style. We’ll see, fully prepared to admit I could have got it all wrong and end up with egg on my face and out of pocket on Bino.
Love Katchit one of my fav. horses, seems to be out of love with the game this season though so couldn’t back him. Won in the Dark is an EW steal at a huge price I think if the ground comes right.
#1116
March 6th, 2009 17:01
5/4 is a ridiculous price on Binocular. True, so why not take the 8/5 available at Sporting Bet or the 2.78 with Betfair? I think the bankers are worth lumping on to – Master Minded, Kasbah and Binocular – had 4fold with these 3 plus Rambo. Also can see Denman as the only real challenger to Kauto and the 2s being offered against Kauto (Hills) could be worth sticking in there as well. A good Cheltenham would mean massive payouts on Rambo. Unfortunately, I’m away on business most of next week and will miss the action!
#1117
March 6th, 2009 17:10
Rambo @ Hill’s: All that fannying about and he is re-instated back at 20s. They’re obv on verge of dropping od though…
Phew! Thank Goodness – all is well on RAMBO front lol
#1118
March 6th, 2009 17:11
Master Minded aside, I do not see any of those others to be the ‘bankers’ they are being described as, although I do favour Kasbah Bliss in the World Hurdle.
There are a lot of good horses in the Champion this year. Binocular got beat at the festival last year, is just 5yo and inexperienced. Enough for me to take him on, whether its 5/4 or 7/4!
Also, here’s a good stat for you, the last three 5 year olds to win the Champion Hurdle have succesfully defended their crown. I wonder if Katchit can make it 4 from 4…
Re the Gold Cup, I think cases can be made for Neptune C and Exotic Dancer as well (albeit a weaker one) for him. How many horses have lost their GC crown and then regained it? I dont think Kauto is a banker either, especially if the ground is dead or slow as it looks it may be. I will be betting on Denman in that race as well, as at 7/1 I would kick myself if he won and I wasnt on him!
#1119
March 6th, 2009 17:17
Daniel Edwards says
“Binocular is one of the worst bets of the festival from a value point of view IMO. Plenty to take him on with at the ridiculous price of 5/4. Katchit for me is an ew steal at 14/1″
It’s just a fun bet Daniel, I don’t bet heavily on the festival as it’s a bit of a minefield. I agree Katchit is pretty good value and I have had a “fun bet” on that one at 16/1 a while back.
Let’s not get carried away by cheltenham, it’s the GN where we can make real money.
#1120
March 6th, 2009 17:24
Agree re Denman but I don’t think Neptune C or ED will overturn Kauto. Don’t know of GC winners who regain title, but was second last year to an exceptional horse who is a shadow of the horse he was then so I’d say this year is an exception.
#1121
March 6th, 2009 17:35
But Neptune was right upsides Kauto at the finish last year and I would say he has improved since then for sure…
#1122
March 6th, 2009 18:07
No doubt Neptune’s a better horse but Kauto’s performance last year was undoubtedly below par and I think he’s shown that he’s better than that and should improve at least as much on that performance. Much better preparation this year and should be fresh as a daisy.
#1123
March 6th, 2009 18:12
true…
#1124
March 6th, 2009 18:24
The 2009 Grand National media guide, crammed with trivia for people like us who spend far too long online researching this year’s fancies and not enough time with our loved ones, is now available to download at http://www.aintree.co.uk/pages/media-guide/
#1125
March 6th, 2009 18:45
Surprised with everyones views on the Gold Cup. I absolutely love Kauto Star and was welling up cheering him home when he destroyed them all in the King George in Dec after so many people doubting him. However, even I will say that now he is now beatable. The problem is.. by who? Denman imo is cracking value. Whether hes a shadow of his former self or not I’d happily take a 1 in 7 chance that he isn’t. Don’t believe a horse that good can just lose it all, especially when everyone has said he is fine.
My big one to take Kauto on though is Madison du Berlais. I don’t see NC, ED, Barbershop etc even coming close. But the more and more I watch the Levy Board Chase the more I think its as much about him running a good race as it is Denman running a bad race. It only looks such a bad performance from Denman because of how good Madison du Berlais was. Absolute machine. Let’s not forget he beat Albertas Run (who every1 tipped would be the 1 to topple Denman) by 50 lengths! And there’s nothing wrong with AR and he was rated 165 before that race. Even if not running up to scratch then that still must put Madison at 170+. Although his Hennessy wasn’t as impressive as Denmans (whos would be), it was still very very impressive and he beat a lot of good horses.
Like Snoopy Loopy and Black Apalachi, appears to be a totally different horse this year who the handicapper clearly has no idea how to rate. Appears to be progressing and who knows what his potential is. Will be very interested to see him run off level weights with a beatable Kauto and an off Denman. Plus good noises from the Pipe camp.
Must say as much as I couldn’t wait for Denman v Kauto last year its really great to have a Gold Cup where there’s many potential winners.
RE – Silver Birch – Yer I guessed that, just seemed odd, he’s been steady for a long time. Was very sudden drift that’s all. I’ve no money on him any more. Backed him at 150s at Xmas and layed out long time ago. Just wondered.
Ells
1
#1126
March 6th, 2009 18:50
IMPORTANT – Calling Wacky, Systemsman, KJ, Crisp, Pablo, Stayer, Thai Mark, Stephen, Daniel and everyone who makes this blog great (but there is no room to list you all lol
By Joves I think Showlad’s got it!!
OK guys a great way to assess our collective thoughts for the GN.
Everyone lists their Top 6. Horses get 6 points for top spot desceneding down to 1 point for their 6th choice, OK?
This gives us chance to list our Top 4 and build up other tips by also then listing our 5th and 6th choices.
OK so the way it works and Rules :
You list your 6 horses and you can give any comments you wish.
You then add your points onto the previous table in the previous post, giving an ongoing COMBINED table of the points allocated by the contributors of this blog. EG if Rambo was sitting with 6 points at the top of the table, after the first vote by say, Pablo and then, say, Crips gave him 2nd place and 5 points, his total changes to 11 points, get it.
The tabel will start afresh AFTER Cheltenahm, but once you list your TOP 6 just now, you cannot re-list until after Cheltenham.
OKay let’s call it the GN BLOGGERS TIPS LEAGUE.
I’ll go first and post up now and get the ball rolling!
#1127
March 6th, 2009 18:54
The comparison between Hedgehunter and State of Play is a fair one and State of Play compares very well
1) Before his first National Hedgehunter had won the Thyestes and come 4th in the Hennessy off 10’4
2) Before his second National he won he added the Bobbyjo Chase (not a handicap) and was rated 144 at Aintree
State of Play won the Hennessy of 11’4 and this season has won the Charlie Hall – a non-handicap – and is rated 150 at Aintree
Of course Hedgehunter went on to win the National and come second in the Gold Cup but at this stage before he won he was not a better rated horse than State of Play is now
#1128
March 6th, 2009 18:55
GN BLOGGERS TIPS LEAGUE:
SHOWLAD’S TOP 6:
1) RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01 Keith Reveley Amazing PROVEN stamina, jumps brilliantly, fantastic weight, form resembles COD. Although 11 is definitely still progressive. Truly way out ahead of the field in my estimations.
2) STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08 Evan Williams Total class act in every way. Have to take it on trust re running best fresh – but form strongly suggests so. Combine that with focus now only GN and he HAS to be considered.
3) DARKNESS 10-10-01 Charles Egerton Quirky, brilliant at times. Stamina unknown but the class of this horse suggests he could be somewhere threatening at the finish.
4) GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00 J Enda Bolger IRE BIG test for this horse in GN. Cross country specialist coming on in chases, who is used to lumping around nearly 12 stone. CANNOT, even if does like the odd croissant for breakfast. Be dismissed.
5) KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13 Tom George Some disappointments in C1 company, but is DEFINITELY progressive and has scalps of Mon Mome, Rambling etc previously. Again – could this be his day?
6) CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-02 Paul Nicholls Glided into 2nd at Welsh National for this horse who seems transformed now fully benefiting breathing operation. His 2nd at Welsh National was way better than his performance in previous year and has to be on anyone’s real contender list for GN that he could turn around last year’s 10th also.
So, after 1st contribution GN BLOGGERS TIPS LEAGUE table stands at:
RAMBLING MINISTER 6 POINTS
STATE OF PLAY 5 POINTS
DARKNESS 4 POINTS
GARDE CHAMPETRE 3 POINTS
KILBEGGAN BLADE 2 POINTS
CORNISH SETT 1 POINT
OK Guys, add in your own TOP 6 and add into table and adjust accordingly. Let’s see where the table takes us!
#1129
March 6th, 2009 19:09
MY TOP 6
Darkness 6
Rambling Minster 5
Southern Vic 4
State of Play 3
Garde Chapetre 2
Himalayan Trail 1
So
RM = 11
Darkness 10
State of Play 8
Garde Champeter 5
Kilbeggan Blade 2
Cornish Sett 1
Himalayan trail 1
#1130
March 6th, 2009 19:10
Sorry should be
RM = 11
Darkness 10
State of Play 8
Garde Champeter 5
Southern Vic 4
Kilbeggan Blade 2
Cornish Sett 1
Himalayan trail 1
#1131
March 6th, 2009 19:13
Thanks Silver Birch
Bloody Marvellous –
can’t wait to see the table’s changing places as it rolls out!!
#1132
March 6th, 2009 19:17
Assuming weights stay the same:
Black Apalachi 6 points
Rambling Minster 5 points
Snowy Morning 4 points
State Of Play 3 points
War Of Attrition 2 points
Southern Vic 1 point
Rambling Minster 16
State Of Play 11
Darkness 10
Black Apalachi 6
Garde Champetre 5
Southern Vic 5
Snowy Morning 4
War Of Attrition 2
Kilbeggan Blade 2
Cornish Sett 1
Himalayan trail 1
#1133
March 6th, 2009 19:35
as above assuming weights stay the same
1) Cornish Sett 7
2) Rambling Minster 21
3) State of Play 15
4) War of Attrition 5
5) Preists Leap 2
6) Darkness 11
#1134
March 6th, 2009 19:53
My selections:
1) Butler’s Cabin (trusting this one, backed big)
2) Rambling Minster (everyone knows why already, backed big)
3) State Of Play (waiting to lump large on this one on the day, not backed yet)
4) Kilbeggan Blade (if there’s loads of rain then I’ll be a Kilbeggan mark on the day. Not backed yet).
5) Garde Champetre (doubts here but I am loving the fact that I am struggling to get to six, backed small).
6) Black Apalachi (weight and last year’s run concerns me, not backed)
Rambling Minster 21
State Of Play 19
Darkness 11
Garde Champetre 7
Black Apalachi 7
Butler’s Cabin 6
Southern Vic 5
Snowy Morning 4
War Of Attrition 5
Kilbeggan Blade 5
Preists Leap 2
Cornish Sett 1
Himalayan trail 1
#1135
March 6th, 2009 19:54
Great Pablo and superwinger. The table is for as we see things now. That’s why we will start a new and fresh table after Chelts and next fofeit stage.
New table starts on Mar 18.
Pablo do u really see BA getting round and winning on current weight? Do u feel he will be able to do that over GN trip?
Interested to hear your thoughts. He was about 7th/8th on my list.
And yes Pablo, GN is the biggie for me not the mad circus (as marvellous as it) that is Chelts.
#1136
March 6th, 2009 19:58
Please all amend ENTIRE table – not just those you allocate your points to.
So up to and including Rascal table is:
Rambling Minster 26
State Of Play 19
Darkness 11
Garde Champetre 7
Black Apalachi 7
Butler’s Cabin 6
Southern Vic 5
Snowy Morning 4
War Of Attrition 5
Kilbeggan Blade 5
Preists Leap 2
Cornish Sett 1
Himalayan trail 1
#1137
March 6th, 2009 20:05
Sorry Showlad – thanks for this and amendment. Forgot to add on Rambling’s points (like he needs them).
#1138
March 6th, 2009 20:05
By the Way:
Easiest way to do table is: cut and paste the most recent table onto your own post and then alter the points on the table as you allocate yours.
#1139
March 6th, 2009 20:09
My top 6 are
1. Rambling Minster
2. Grade Champetre
3. Black Apalachi
4. State of Play
5. Irish Invader
6. Knowhere
this makes the table
Rambling Minster 31
State Of Play 22
Darkness 11
Garde Champetre 12
Black Apalachi 11
Butler’s Cabin 6
Southern Vic 5
Snowy Morning 4
War Of Attrition 5
Kilbeggan Blade 5
Preists Leap 2
Irish Invader 2
Cornish Sett 1
Himalayan trail 1
Knowhere 1
#1140
March 6th, 2009 20:11
sorry Cant add should be
Rambling Minster 32
State Of Play 22
Darkness 11
Garde Champetre 12
Black Apalachi 11
Butler’s Cabin 6
Southern Vic 5
Snowy Morning 4
War Of Attrition 5
Kilbeggan Blade 5
Preists Leap 2
Irish Invader 2
Cornish Sett 1
Himalayan trail 1
Knowhere 1
#1141
March 6th, 2009 20:39
I’ve only backed two so far – RAMBO and STATE OF PLAY – and will probably stick at that to be honest, although BUTLERS CABIN may get a straight win bet as cover if he shows a flicker of old form in the cross country at Cheltenham.
Of the rest, I can’t see any of them winning (sounds cocky I know!!). I can see them running into a place, however.
1, Rambling Minster.
2, State of Play.
3, Butlers Cabin.
4, Garde Champetre.
5, Always Waining.
6, L’Ami.
So the updated table is….
Rambling Minster 32
State Of Play 24
Darkness 11
Garde Champetre 10
Butler’s Cabin 10
Black Apalachi 7
Southern Vic 5
War Of Attrition 5
Kilbeggan Blade 5
Snowy Morning 4
Always Waining 2
Preists Leap 2
L’Ami 1
Cornish Sett 1
Himalayan Trail 1
#1142
March 6th, 2009 21:10
1, Rambling Minster.
2, Garde Champetre.
3, Butlers Cabin.
4, Himalayan Trail.
5, Southern Vic.
6, Character Building.
Updated table is….
Rambling Minster 38
State Of Play 24
Garde Champetre 15
Butler’s Cabin 14
Darkness 11
Black Apalachi 7
Southern Vic 7
War Of Attrition 5
Kilbeggan Blade 5
Snowy Morning 4
Himalayan Trail 4
Always Waining 2
Preists Leap 2
L’Ami 1
Cornish Sett 1
Character Building 1
#1143
March 6th, 2009 21:38
6)Rambling Minister
5)Garde Campetre
4)State of Play
3)Kilbeggan Blade
2)Funadmentalist
1)Comply or Die
Rambling Minster 44
State Of Play 28
Garde Champetre 20
Butler’s Cabin 14
Darkness 11
Kilbeggan Blade 8
Black Apalachi 7
Southern Vic 7
War Of Attrition 5
Snowy Morning 4
Himalayan Trail 4
Fundamentalist 2
Always Waining 2
Preists Leap 2
L’Ami 1
Comply or Die 1
Cornish Sett 1
Character Building 1
#1144
March 6th, 2009 22:07
6)Rambling Minister
5)State of Play
4)Black Apalachi
3)Darkness
2)Himalayan Trail
1)Comply or Die
Rambling Minster 50
State Of Play 33
Garde Champetre 20
Butler’s Cabin 14
Darkness 14
Black Apalachi 11
Kilbeggan Blade 8
Southern Vic 7
Himalayan Trail 6
War Of Attrition 5
Snowy Morning 4
Fundamentalist 2
Always Waining 2
Preists Leap 2
Comply or Die 2
L’Ami 1
Cornish Sett 1
Character Building 1
#1145
March 6th, 2009 22:15
Table looks AMAZING – so helpful for us all to get an OVERALL picture of the tips of the contributors to this site.
Any of GN running at all this wknd?
#1146
March 6th, 2009 22:25
Hi guys i have not posted for a while , but i am back now
i cannot believe that there are over 1000 posts on this new thread, last year in total i think we only made about the mid 500′s this year thus far must be approaching 2000.
Well like i said some weeks back now i could not see past rambling Minster then and i am still of the same opinion today, so i have backed 2 others as savers just in case so heres my list……
6) Rambling Minster
5) Darkness
4) Southern Vic ( depends on Sundays race really)
3) State of play (depends if the weights rise)
2) Simon (depends if he gets a good run in soon)
1) l’ami
Rambling Minster 56
State Of Play 36
Garde Champetre 20
Butler’s Cabin 14
Darkness 19
Black Apalachi 11
Kilbeggan Blade 8
Southern Vic 11
Himalayan Trail 6
War Of Attrition 5
Snowy Morning 4
Fundamentalist 2
Always Waining 2
Preists Leap 2
Comply or Die 2
L’Ami 2
Cornish Sett 1
Character Building 1
Simon 2
#1147
March 6th, 2009 22:30
Alo Aintree, Alo Aintree, can you hear me, over.
These are the results from the Crisp jury.
un point goes to Brooklyn Brownie – a place beckons but if he preps could win it. When did a cake last win a GN?
deux point goes to Character Building – everybody loves a grey but nobody loves him. Horrendous mistake at Haydock but didnt want to go down and even jumped another fence. Class at the bottom of the handicap and placed over 32f.
trois point goes to L’Ami – could be the one if FR trend crumbles.
Hulk Hogan’s got his own tv show and is everybody’s ‘friend’- Lutteur/wrestler was the last FR winner!
quatre points go to State Of Play – 99 days since last run but Nena had 99 balloons and State is half German. Will be fit but not match fit, might lack that edge needed in the final furlong.
cinque points go to Rambling Minster – will he find one or two a bit nippier or will the Rumbling ‘Monster munch’ the rest!
six points go to Cornish Sett – cornish cream is the best and cream always rises to the top. Career defining runs this season in Badger Ales and Welsh National.
That concludes the voting from the Crisp jury.
#1148
March 6th, 2009 22:33
Sorry haven’t updated scores.
Rambling Minster 60
State Of Play 40
Garde Champetre 20
Butler’s Cabin 14
Darkness 19
Cornish Sett 13 , superswingers 6 wasn’t added
Black Apalachi 11
Kilbeggan Blade 8
Southern Vic 11
Himalayan Trail 6
War Of Attrition 5
L’Ami 5
Snowy Morning 4
Character Building 3
Fundamentalist 2
Always Waining 2
Preists Leap 2
Comply or Die 2
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 1
#1149
March 6th, 2009 22:36
So much depends on weight (and the next weeks results)but this is my best shot (as of tonight)from the Systemsman jury:
6. Rambling Minister
5. Butlers Cabin
4. State of Play (so much class but weight?)
3. Garde Champetre
2. Kilgeggan Blade
1. Southern Vic
New totals:
Rambling Minster 62
State Of Play 40
Garde Champetre 23
Butler’s Cabin 19
Darkness 19
Southern Vic 12
Black Apalachi 11
Kilbeggan Blade 10
Himalayan Trail 6
War Of Attrition 5
Snowy Morning 4
Fundamentalist 2
Always Waining 2
Preists Leap 2
Comply or Die 2
L’Ami 2
Cornish Sett 1
Character Building 1
Simon 2
#1150
March 6th, 2009 22:38
Is there block voting?
#1151
March 6th, 2009 22:40
Alo Aintree, there must a RBS/HBOS banker in charge of the scoreboard because nothing adds up.
#1152
March 6th, 2009 22:40
Now reads (after Crisp ammendment):
Rambling Minster 66
State Of Play 44
Garde Champetre 23
Butler’s Cabin 19
Darkness 19
Cornish Sett 13
Southern Vic 12
Black Apalachi 11
Kilbeggan Blade 10
Himalayan Trail 6
War Of Attrition 5
L’Ami 5
Snowy Morning 4
Character Building 3
Fundamentalist 2
Always Waining 2
Preists Leap 2
Comply or Die 2
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 1
#1153
March 6th, 2009 22:40
Ha ha Crisp – it may get like Eurovision this year – they’ll have to bring in the juries
#1154
March 6th, 2009 23:19
Where’s Terry Wogan when you need him
#1155
March 7th, 2009 00:36
To Maxi,- new to site
Twice you have asked about Offshore Account but your question has fallen on deaf ears.
My advice would be to keep your money in your offshore account.
Last run 464 days ago and only 6 chase runs. Would be a mighty shock to the stats if this horse wins the GN.
#1156
March 7th, 2009 02:01
Ok, I will go;
RAMBLING MINSTER 6 Points
BUTLERS CABIN 5
STATE OF PLAY 4
CORNISH SETT 3
PARSONS LEGACY 2
GARDE CHAMPETRE 1
I make that;
Rambling Minster 72
State Of Play 48
Garde Champetre 24
Butler’s Cabin 24
Darkness 19
Cornish Sett 16
Southern Vic 12
Black Apalachi 11
Kilbeggan Blade 10
Himalayan Trail 6
War Of Attrition 5
L’Ami 5
Snowy Morning 4
Character Building 3
Fundamentalist 2
Always Waining 2
Preists Leap 2
Comply or Die 2
Simon 2
Parsons Legacy 2 (NEW ENTRY!)
Brooklyn Brownie 1
#1157
March 7th, 2009 03:12
Hi all, good idea Showlad, altho as Ive said before, always difficult when prep runs still to come and no idea on weights. Should be interesting.
Few points before I post mine.
1.) Slightly worried that people might be talking with their money rather than their heads. Whether I like BC or SV or not, objectively I can’t imagine anyone being confident backing them at the moment. Fair enough 5th or 6th as potential but top 3? They may shoot up the list with good runs but as far as I know we’re doing it at this moment in time. I’m never one to criticise other peoples opinions as everyone is allowed one, I’m merely saying if we are doing a list together – of the best bets then we have to be true to our mind and not our money.
2.) Im assuming weights are up 5lb as this seems the one we can be most confident with atm. Therefore no BA sorry guys. I do like him but will be too much weight and believe even with 10-11 he would need soft. I would be backing Miko if I had to back a horse around that weight, altho slightly worried them still heading for Gold Cup.
3.) Very interesting to see the range of horses selected. Really thought most of us were on the same wavelength but 21 different horses now lol.
Anyways enough of my ramblings (see what I did there
), here’s my list at this current point in time! Going to be a stretch as don’t really have a 6.
1. Rambling Minster – 6
—————————– Not much in it between the next 3
2. L’ami – 5
3. Darkness – 4
4. Garde Champetre – 3
—————————– Another decent gap here
5. Parsons Legacy – 2 (Can’t back till I know hes running, lost a bit last year when they pulled him with no warning). Plus I would like to see another prep race because unlike SOP he doesn’t need to run fresh, eg. 2nd at Cheltenham Festival after running in Jan and then 3rd in Scottish Nat only a month later.)
6. Cornish Sett – 1
Got decent wedge on SOP but plan to lay most of that out on the day. Backed more as a precautionary measure as he is the unknown. Most positive thing for me is the trainers feelings rather than the horses profile, just not sure he will get the distance or that hes a National horse.
If weight stays the same then will be backing Miko.
Rambling Minster 78
State Of Play 48
Garde Champetre 27
Butler’s Cabin 24
Darkness 23
Cornish Sett 17
Southern Vic 12
Black Apalachi 11
L’Ami 10
Kilbeggan Blade 10
Himalayan Trail 6
War Of Attrition 5
Parsons Legacy 4 (Much Better Daniel – dont get why hes so low )
Snowy Morning 4
Character Building 3
Fundamentalist 2
Always Waining 2
Preists Leap 2
Comply or Die 2
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 1
Think that’s right
Cheers
Ells
1
#1158
March 7th, 2009 10:07
Rambling Minster 6
Southern Vic 5
Darkness 4
Parsons Legacy 3(must have a prep race)
State of play 2
Butlers Cacin 1
Updated
Rambling Minster 84
State Of Play 50
Garde Champetre 27
Butler’s Cabin 25
Darkness 27
Cornish Sett 17
Southern Vic 17
Black Apalachi 11
L’Ami 10
Kilbeggan Blade 10
Himalayan Trail 6
War Of Attrition 5
Parsons Legacy 7
Snowy Morning 4
Character Building 3
Fundamentalist 2
Always Waining 2
Preists Leap 2
Comply or Die 2
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 1
#1159
March 7th, 2009 10:24
Here’s my top 6 (though I’m only really happy with the first 3!) :-
6 pts = Rambling Minster
5 pts = State of Play
4 pts = Garde Champetre
3 pts = Black Apalachi
2 pts = Himalayan Trail
1 pt = Parsons Legacy
Updates results:-
Rambling Minster 90
State Of Play 55
Garde Champetre 31
Butler’s Cabin 25
Darkness 27
Cornish Sett 17
Southern Vic 17
Black Apalachi 14
L’Ami 10
Kilbeggan Blade 10
Himalayan Trail 8
War Of Attrition 5
Parsons Legacy 8
Snowy Morning 4
Character Building 3
Fundamentalist 2
Always Waining 2
Preists Leap 2
Comply or Die 2
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 1
#1160
March 7th, 2009 10:40
Really good idea this Showlad. Here are my top 6:
1. Rambling Minster
2. Butler’s Cabin
3. State of Play
4. Southern Vic
5. Parsons Legacy
6. Always Waining
This could change depending on what happens during the next week, and on what happens to the weights, but the running total now becomes:
Rambling Minster 90
State Of Play 54
Garde Champetre 27
Butler’s Cabin 30
Darkness 27
Cornish Sett 17
Southern Vic 20
Black Apalachi 11
L’Ami 10
Kilbeggan Blade 10
Himalayan Trail 6
War Of Attrition 5
Parsons Legacy 9
Snowy Morning 4
Character Building 3
Fundamentalist 2
Always Waining 3
Preists Leap 2
Comply or Die 2
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 1
#1161
March 7th, 2009 10:42
Looks like Stats man got in before me so i’ve done mine again:
Rambling Minster 95
State Of Play 59
Garde Champetre 31
Butler’s Cabin 30
Darkness 27
Cornish Sett 17
Southern Vic 20
Black Apalachi 14
L’Ami 10
Kilbeggan Blade 10
Himalayan Trail 8
War Of Attrition 5
Parsons Legacy 10
Snowy Morning 4
Character Building 3
Fundamentalist 2
Always Waining 3
Preists Leap 2
Comply or Die 2
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 1
#1162
March 7th, 2009 11:18
Bookies must have got their prices wrong then
Nowhere in our list:
Hear The Echo
Big Fella Thanks
My Will
Can’t Buy Time
#1163
March 7th, 2009 11:24
I think you’re right Pablo, they’ve got them too short.
Hear The Echo = too much weight
Big Fella Thanks = 7-y-o
My Will = too much weight
Can’t Buy Time = 7-y-o
There’s probably lots of other good reasons for not backing them, but the above reasons knock them straight out for me. (have assumed weights will be rising by 5lb).
#1164
March 7th, 2009 11:39
Mine are:
1. Rambling Minster
2. Black Apalachi
3. Garde Champetre
4. Kilbeggan Blade
5. Darkness
6. Knowhere
Running Totals:
Rambling Minster 101
State Of Play 59
Garde Champetre 35
Butler’s Cabin 30
Darkness 29
Southern Vic 20
Black Apalachi 19
Cornish Sett 17
Kilbeggan Blade 13
L’Ami 10
Parsons Legacy 10
Himalayan Trail 8
War Of Attrition 5
Snowy Morning 4
Character Building 3
Always Waining 3
Fundamentalist 2
Preists Leap 2
Comply or Die 2
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 1
Knowhere 1
#1165
March 7th, 2009 11:48
Before the Haydock race that Rambo won, Character Building would have been in the top 6 easily if we had compiled this list at that time – yet now he’s way down near the bottom
#1166
March 7th, 2009 12:17
19 sets of votes in on table – what a great gauge oif where we’re all at.
Still one of the big4 shortens him, after all their fannying about WH will prob follow soon.
Clock gets set at zero after Chelts/next fofeit – so it’s fine and safe to vote how you see the picture just now.
VC keep us all amused – do they keep Rambo at 20s – no, do they move him into 16sno – they MOVE HIM INTO 18s LOL
V observant Pablo re CB and I couldn’t resist being good to you on a Saturday morning and giving you (and all) this update on one of our prev favs:
“John Quinn believes Character Building can bounce back to form in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup at Cheltenham next week.
The nine-year-old was a winner over hurdles at Towcester on his return from injury back in November and he has since turned in fine placed efforts at Cheltenham and Doncaster.
He was a big disappointment when finishing down the field in the Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock last time but Quinn is confident he will show his true colours at Prestbury Park on Thursday.
“The Grand National is the plan for Character Building and we will hopefully run him at Cheltenham first and then go straight to Aintree afterwards,” said Quinn.
“He’s come out of his Haydock race in good order and I think there were several reasons as to why he didn’t run his race, with the biggest factor being the going.
“He doesn’t really handle heavy ground and he is a much better horse on a faster surface.
“We are hoping for a better run on the faster ground forecast at Cheltenham next week.
“He has already run well around the course twice this season and I think he goes into the race with a decent chance.”
#1167
March 7th, 2009 12:27
Even before the Rambo race, doesn’t CB automatically fail the trends as never won chase worth 17K? Thought this was one of the main trends….?
#1168
March 7th, 2009 12:31
Think he failed by just a few quid though Stats Man…
#1169
March 7th, 2009 12:53
Strictly speaking his RPR is 1lb below too
However his profile is very close and 1lb a few quid probably don’t make that much difference
Except that when you look at his profile overall he just seems to lack the class and will to win
#1170
March 7th, 2009 13:00
6 = Garde Champetre
5 = Rambling Minster
4 = Comply or Die
3 = Snowy Morning
2 = State of Play
1 = Parsons Legacy
#1171
March 7th, 2009 13:05
Don’t agree on class – I think CB has that.
It’s just that will to win when he had BC on a plate at Chelts but resisted and lost by 3/4 of a length in the end…
A good run in Kim Muir and his odds will sharply come in again.
#1172
March 7th, 2009 13:56
He needs to show something because it looks like the handicapper has his measure at the moment but it’s a Class 2 race so he’s every chance of doing well
CB’s Record in Class 1′s is not good though
Same could have been said about Rambo’s Class 1 record a few weeks ago but he put that right in style
#1173
March 7th, 2009 14:03
Russell you add in your points to the last table’s total posted up and post up the new table totals..
#1174
March 7th, 2009 14:18
Does anyone have any views or stats for todays racing
#1175
March 7th, 2009 14:49
In the first two at Sandown im on:
2:05 – Time For Rupert – for me the best horse in the race and at 22/1 I’m happily willing to think the handicapper may have not have rated this horse highly enough for his C2 win last time out. If this was from a big stable we would be talking 8/1 or lower.
2:35 – Mister Quasimodo – Entered for the Bet365 Steeple chase at Sandown in late April and this appears to be its prep run. Not going to Cheltenham this year and being dropped way back in class here. 6/1 appears good value to me.
Sure these will both Pull Up now lol but you asked for any views on todays racing.
Ells
1
#1176
March 7th, 2009 14:58
Regarding today’s racing:
2.05
Bakbenscher
Tullamore Drew (good e/w value at 33/1)
2.35
Zacharova
3.10
I have Dreamed (great e/w value at 25/1 with most bookies)
#1177
March 7th, 2009 15:01
Hi
Going back to the Class/Grade issue. The Fighting Fifth hurdle is a Grade 1, but only Class 3? What’s that about? Something different cos its hurdles or what?
Ells
1
#1178
March 7th, 2009 15:05
Hi Guys have updated table below now with Russell’s.
If anyone else gives their points without adding into main table, then someone else do it please lol
Rambling Minster 106
State Of Play 61
Garde Champetre 41
Butler’s Cabin 30
Darkness 29
Southern Vic 20
Black Apalachi 19
Cornish Sett 17
Kilbeggan Blade 13
L’Ami 10
Parsons Legacy 11
Himalayan Trail 8
War Of Attrition 5
Snowy Morning 7
Character Building 3
Always Waining 3
Fundamentalist 2
Preists Leap 2
Comply or Die 6
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 1
Knowhere 1
#1179
March 7th, 2009 15:23
rambo 6=112
black apalachi 5=24
state of play 4=65
darkness 3=32
butlerscabin 2=32
southern vic1=21.
best cheltenham bets in my opinion are.
voy por ustedes,
kasbah bliss,
garde champetre,
madison du berlais,
stick them with rambo.got potential i think.acca
#1180
March 7th, 2009 16:04
Seven Is My Number – my only bet today.
#1181
March 7th, 2009 16:12
european dream ew
#1182
March 7th, 2009 16:16
stupid jockey lol
#1183
March 7th, 2009 16:26
so who’s going to win;
14/ 70% Rambling Minster
2/10% Cornish Sett
1/ 5% Darkness, Black Apalachi, Butlers Cabin,Garde Champetre
most mentions;
20 Rambling Minster
17 State Of Play
12 Garde Champetre
9 Darkness
#1184
March 7th, 2009 16:28
Daves Dream
Nice win there! That will do me, knew 14s was far too big.
Ells
1
#1185
March 7th, 2009 16:39
OK last time…zzzzz…..hi green st, but you have to update (cut and paste) the WHOLE table…
Feels like I’m an extra on Blue Peter,lol..
Updated now, lol, inc green st’s votes…
Rambling Minster 112
State Of Play 65
Garde Champetre 41
Butler’s Cabin 32
Darkness 32
Southern Vic 21
Black Apalachi 24
Cornish Sett 17
Kilbeggan Blade 13
L’Ami 10
Parsons Legacy 11
Himalayan Trail 8
War Of Attrition 5
Snowy Morning 7
Character Building 3
Always Waining 3
Fundamentalist 2
Preists Leap 2
Comply or Die 6
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 1
Knowhere 1
#1186
March 7th, 2009 16:56
Come on, Noakes sort it out!!
#1187
March 7th, 2009 17:28
Good idea Showlad was thinking the same thing yesterday but couldn’t get it together!
Damn, didn’t get on golden sunbird there, too busy thinking on here! missed the ‘double Ds’ of Daves Dream wearing double 1s too!.. lucky this year!!! went for my other lucky no.7 there :0 Not many horses with two of the same letters in our list, just Brooklyn Brownie.
Been a bit of work for you! good spot by crisp early on when Cornish was’ne gettin his points
Notice some people have assumed weights as staying the same and some 5lb rise, I think 8lb rise is a real possibility. Changes everyones list considerably I reckon, and I don’t know which list to add!?
If weights stay similarish 4lb or under I would include COD, Miko, SOP maybe, BA,. but going to do list for the going up 5-8lb.
Rambo 6
Garde Champetre 5
Cornish Sett 4
L’Ami 3
Kilbeggan Blade 2
Brooklyn Brownie 1
so list compiled now looks like this
Rambling Minster 118
State Of Play 65
Garde Champetre 46
Butler’s Cabin 32
Darkness 32
Southern Vic 21
Black Apalachi 24
Cornish Sett 21
Kilbeggan Blade 15
L’Ami 13
Parsons Legacy 11
Himalayan Trail 8
War Of Attrition 5
Snowy Morning 7
Character Building 3
Always Waining 3
Fundamentalist 2
Preists Leap 2
Comply or Die 6
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 2
Knowhere 1
#1188
March 7th, 2009 17:42
I for one would like to see wackys list!
and am aware he and others have a problem seeing threads this large,
so to be fair to all
ADMIN….this looks like a good place to start a new thread!?
#1189
March 7th, 2009 17:45
Showlad, just been looking back over the final few days on the blog before last year’s race.
There were 68 selections by about 20 different bloggers though most people were naming their selections, no order of preference.
14/21% DArgent
13/19% Comply Or Die
5/7% Point Barrow
4/6% Philson Run, Simon, Dun Doire, Naunton Brook,
King Johns Castle 1, Snowy Morning 2, Slim Pickings 3.
#1190
March 7th, 2009 20:53
Great work on finding that info on CB Showlad. Where did you get it from? I’ve been trying to find it.
#1191
March 7th, 2009 22:00
Lots of rain forecast in the cheltenham area so butlers cabin maybe a non runner.If like me you don’t fancy the horse lay it now before it drifts on betfair.Can’t believe its still 2nd fav!!
#1192
March 7th, 2009 22:29
Hey Stephen got it from from Sporting life, but I copied over article in entirety, so you missed nothing.
Interesting Crisp. Still, within those most mentioned that you listed we still had the Top 4 and the winner was close in 2nd –
I’d take that this year if it was SOP – though would rather it was RAMBO.
Yes Whacky get that bloody list posted up.
#1193
March 7th, 2009 23:14
Kilbeggan Bldae runs in 14.35 at Warwick 3m 1f Novice Hudle on Sunday.
Just a prep race to keep him ticking over. Should win on all known factors (will be odds on).Wont add much to GN picture.
#1194
March 8th, 2009 01:06
6. Rambling Minster
5. State of Play
4. Kilbeggan Blade
3. Black Apalachi
2. Darkness
1. Reveillez
Rambling Minster 124
State Of Play 70
Garde Champetre 46
Butler’s Cabin 32
Darkness 34
Southern Vic 21
Black Apalachi 27
Cornish Sett 21
Kilbeggan Blade 19
L’Ami 13
Parsons Legacy 11
Himalayan Trail 8
War Of Attrition 5
Snowy Morning 7
Character Building 3
Always Waining 3
Fundamentalist 2
Preists Leap 2
Comply or Die 6
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 2
Knowhere 1
Reveillez 1
#1195
March 8th, 2009 09:22
miinnihoma, thanks for info on offshore acount.
6 – State of Play
5 – Rambling Minster
4 – Darkness
3 – Cornish Sett
2 – comply or die
1 – Garde Champetre
Rambling Minster 130
State Of Play 76
Garde Champetre 42
Darkness 38
Butler’s Cabin 32
Southern Vic 21
Black Apalachi 27
Cornish Sett 24
Kilbeggan Blade 19
L’Ami 13
Parsons Legacy 11
Himalayan Trail 8
War Of Attrition 5
Snowy Morning 7
Character Building 3
Always Waining 3
Fundamentalist 2
Preists Leap 2
Comply or Die 8
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 2
Knowhere 1
Reveillez 1
#1196
March 8th, 2009 09:33
Great stuff this year guys, here’s how I see it:
6 – State of Play
5 – Rambling Minster
4 – Cornish Sett
3 – Parsons Legacy
2 – Black Apalachi
1 – Knowhere
Rambling Minster 135
State Of Play 82
Garde Champetre 42
Darkness 38
Butler’s Cabin 32
Black Apalachi 29
Cornish Sett 28
Southern Vic 21
Kilbeggan Blade 19
Parsons Legacy 14
L’Ami 13
Himalayan Trail 8
Comply or Die 8
Snowy Morning 7
War Of Attrition 5
Character Building 3
Always Waining 3
Fundamentalist 2
Preists Leap 2
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 2
Knowhere 2
Reveillez 1
#1197
March 8th, 2009 10:45
E/W yankee for a bit of fun at Cheltenham and to hopefully add some more ammunition to the Rambo funds:
Torphichen (7/1, Supreme Novices) – David Pipe very keen on this one, stable in form, his Dad sent out another 4 year old to win this 10 years ago (Hors La Loi III), should be a big improver
Ninetieth Minute (20/1, Coral Cup) – Well handicapped on this season’s form, longer trip will not be a problem as by Old Vic and the forecast rain will help slow down the speedier types, should be staying on nicely at the end of the race
Dunbuig (7/1, Bumper) – Looks to have the best form on offer and would be much shorter, if not clear favourite, if trained by Willie Mullins – really impressive in last run
Rambling Minster (20/1) – You know why…
#1198
March 8th, 2009 10:52
With regards to Butlers Cabin.
This horse really worries me. Even with a poor run at Cheltenham, i keep having this vision of it still winning the National. I really hope that this doesn’t happen as i would feel cheated. Don’t get me wrong i know plenty of Horses are run to get their weights down etc but i feel that if this horse was to win the national this year it would be done by underhand methods. Everyone knows that this horse has had the national as a target for the last year but it has shown no form and should have no chance this year on what it has shown so far. anyone else worried about this horse ?
#1199
March 8th, 2009 11:26
I think Butler’s Cabin’s price is shocking value
It’s still running off the same rating as last year – 147
As I’ve said before he was going well when he fell but lots of other horses were too at the time – the first five home for example – and I would say that its ludicrous to suggest that he would have won since he fell well over a mile from home
If it wins fair play to him but I cannot see the logic in backing an out-of-form horse to win the National at 14/1
Bobbyjo and Papillon didn’t show much in their winning season, but the National looks much more competitive this year with prize money at least double what it was back then
You need a well handicapped horse to win, and even on his Irish National-winning performance, there are many better handicapped horses in my view
#1200
March 8th, 2009 11:53
Pablo:
“As I’ve said before he was going well when he fell but lots of other horses were too at the time – the first five home for example – and I would say that its ludicrous to suggest that he would have won since he fell well over a mile from home
If it wins fair play to him but I cannot see the logic in backing an out-of-form horse to win the National at 14/1″
Reply:
It been well knon that you would not see the best form this hosre till the spring either his last prep race (this week) and the GN itself.
For me a good run this week is essential (a good 2nd or 3rd, a win would go agianst the trends Chelt winner + GN winner). Others have pointed out he still has a chance if in the first 5.
As regards the price you were advised to take the 20/1 a long time ago on this site (by me and others).
If he had not fllen last year i am confident he would have been placed 1/2/3 or 4th.
I still think this horse could win the GN and fight it out with Rambo but I really do want to see a good run this week (which is why i will have a small EW bet on him).
Pablo
I agree Torphichen (7/1, Supreme Novices)is a good EW bet (Cousin Vinny has beaten nothing so far! a week Fav). Better still take four against the Fav Torphichen (7) , Go Native (10) , Kempes (12) , Micheal Flips (12) – 1pt on each would return a minimum of 4pts profit! A good start to the Cheltenham Festival if all goes well (and more money if the GN War Chest).
#1201
March 8th, 2009 11:53
Concur 100% with views on Butler’s Cabin. Hasn’t shown any decent form since Irish National with the exception of last years Grand National. He was only going as well as someone like Bewleys Berry who ended up 30l behind. If he wins I’ll be severely annoyed but on his form since that Irish National he won’t be getting a scrap of my money, espeically at the ridiculous prices he is atm.
As I’ve said before, extremely happy with the Grand National market at the moment. Because we have Black Apalachi, who actually could win it but would appear to need soft ground, plus if there is an expected weight rise he will be carrying too much, then there’s Butlers Cabin – see above. And then Big Fella Thanks – if he wins I’ll eat my own face lol.
Such great value on horses that actually can win.
All I will say about BC is that he won at the Cheltenham Festival carrying 12st over 4miles and then went on to take the Irish National less than a month later. So a bold showing at Cheltenham Festival this year would interest me.
Ells
1
#1202
March 8th, 2009 12:01
Butlers Cabin not listed on Oddschecker.com for Cheltenham X- Country. Any news anyone?
#1203
March 8th, 2009 12:19
Also on my note I’ve got written down that 10/11 previous winners have had more than 10 3-mile races. Is this true, unsure as to where I’ve got it from. If it is true, is it races or chases?
Thanks
Ells
1
#1204
March 8th, 2009 12:35
Think Butlers is only entered in the Kim Muir on Thursday Systemsman.
#1205
March 8th, 2009 12:40
Systemsman – not saying Butler’s Cabin won’t win I just want to see some form BEFORE I bet – even your 20/1 not value to me in the hope that it turns in a good performance – much rather have a saver at 8/1 or 9/1 with form behind it than a blind punt at 14/1 or 20/1
Butler’s in the Kim Muir on Thursday
Same owner as L’Ami and Garde Champetre so was never going to X Country – also unfair on Enda Bolger for JP McManus to have another trainer’s horse running in his colours when he’s farmed the race for JP over the years
#1206
March 8th, 2009 12:48
well Nass snowed off today so thats a lot of National entries preps messed up.
Priests leap
king Johns castle
southern vic
all without a run.
#1207
March 8th, 2009 13:15
oh dear, yet again the weather wins! If any of those three had shown something it would have given us a nice little shake up pre cheltenham.
Wacky- where u been? thought you were locked up!. show us yer list, come on stick um up!!!
#1208
March 8th, 2009 13:15
Re. our top 6 so far
out of all of us that have posted our top 6 (22 of us) we all agree that Rambling Minster is in our top 2.
16 of us have him 1st
6 of us have him 2nd
Even at this pre Cheltenham stage this looks pretty conclusive that he at present at 20/1 really is the e.w horse.
We have posted over 2000 postings on this years race and some of us really have a knowledge of racing and more importantly this race.(i am excluding myself from this comment as i don’t want to be labled a big head
So if the general consensus is that the great and the good of this forum place him in the top 2 with all the combined knowledge that we have brought this year then he really must be an e.w steal at 20/1.
I have not posted much this last few weeks i have just been observing, and i have come to the conclusion that because Rambo seems such a good thing to us all, we cannot believe it and some of you guys, are trying to make cases for other horses that we would not normally consider….purely in order to find an alternative.
Last year i remember that most of us kinda got down to a list of 3 or 4 and c.o.d looked a good thing then but some tried to find fault, minds were changed and a good priced a/p winner was lost. in my opinion this year rambo looks much more solid than c.o.d last year.
Sure something could happen and he might not even get round….it’s jumping afterall and i fully understand that in this game their is no dead cert but When everybody that has posted on here thus far puts Rambo in their top 2 then we really should take note lets hope that some don’t make the mistake they made last year!!!
#1209
March 8th, 2009 13:16
Mornin All (well aft but it is a Sunday)
I see RAMBO now into 16s on Blue Square, that just leaves WH (who have dithered on his odds all week) and Corals at 20s
Re snowed off, not so bad for Preists Leap, but terrible news for KJC and SV who desperately needed a run/return to form.. Surely they’ll run in something else b4 Big Day.
Now that decs are in for Chelts be great if someone could post up a list of GN runners and when they run during Festival.
GRAND NATIONAL LEAGUE TABLE closes at midnight tomorrow night and then I shall publish a summary on the findings.
It will re-open and be re-set to zero on 18th March following both Chelts and next fofeit stage.
#1210
March 8th, 2009 13:22
BTW I, like all on this site, do my best to bring us all manner of info on this site (including my bloody Val Singleton stint with the LEAGUE TABLE lol), but I have a little favour to ask: Like many of you I am VERY concerned at the absolute drought of info on Garde’s intentions for GN. Enda seems to never address it.
Could someone PLEASE have a scour and see if there’s any info..
btw 3 weeks on Saturday!!!
#1211
March 8th, 2009 13:27
aaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
#1212
March 8th, 2009 13:43
BTW WTF is with all this txt abrvns? IMO
LOL
#1213
March 8th, 2009 13:50
“Desert Orchid Says:
March 8th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
Think Butlers is only entered in the Kim Muir on Thursday Systemsman.”
Thank you Desert Orchid.
So its the Kim Muir (with amateur riders!!! – scary) but 25/1 got a get a bit of that EW.
There are no if or buts or excuses, times up, BC has to do well in this race and its the right one for him.Thank god is over 25 for the trends – just need that 1/2/3. BC stands as good a chance as any on best form (and we are expecting a return to best form or forget the GN) – is this the same race he won im March 2007 with a new name?
A great to race to watch for GN fans – could turn out to be more important than the X-Country.
#1214
March 8th, 2009 14:19
Runners this week (down to Tumbling Dice, 9′ 12)
Today, 2.35 Warwick
Kilbeggan Blade
TUESDAY
Cross Country:
L´Ami
Garde Champetre
William Hill Trophy:
Star De Mohaison
Roll Along
Comply Or Die
Ollie Magern
My Will
Reveillez
Simon
Silverburn
Always Waining
WEDNESDAY
National Hunt Chase:
Can’t Buy Time
RSA Chase:
Ballyfitz
William Hill Trophy:
Hobbs Hill
Fundamentalist
Golden Flight
Hot Weld
THURSDAY
Ryanair Chase:
Imperial Commander
L´Antartique
Festival Plate:
Stan
Silverburn
Jewson Novices Handicap:
Can’t Buy Time
Kim Muir:
Butler´s Cabin
Character Building
FRIDAY
Gold Cup:
Exotic Dancer
Madison Du Berlais
Snoopy Loopy
War Of Attrition
Knowhere
Miko De Beauchene
Star De Mohaison
Roll Along
My Will
Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys:
Piraya
#1215
March 8th, 2009 14:26
Sorry – I think this is right (William Hill has loads of runners):
Today, 2.35 Warwick
Kilbeggan Blade
TUESDAY
Cross Country:
L´Ami
Garde Champetre
William Hill Trophy:
Star De Mohaison
Roll Along
Comply Or Die
Ollie Magern
My Will
Reveillez
Simon
Silverburn
Always Waining
Hobbs Hill
Fundamentalist
Golden Flight
Hot Weld
WEDNESDAY
National Hunt Chase:
Can’t Buy Time
RSA Chase:
Ballyfitz
THURSDAY
Ryanair Chase:
Imperial Commander
L´Antartique
Festival Plate:
Stan
Silverburn
Jewson Novices Handicap:
Can’t Buy Time
Kim Muir:
Butler´s Cabin
Character Building
FRIDAY
Gold Cup:
Exotic Dancer
Madison Du Berlais
Snoopy Loopy
War Of Attrition
Knowhere
Miko De Beauchene
Star De Mohaison
Roll Along
My Will
Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys:
Piraya
#1216
March 8th, 2009 14:38
6. rambling minster
6. butlers cabin
4. state of play
3. parsons legacy
2. black apalachi
1. snowy morning
Rambling Minster 136
State Of Play 80
Garde Champetre 42
Darkness 38
Butler’s Cabin 37
Southern Vic 21
Black Apalachi 29
Cornish Sett 24
Kilbeggan Blade 19
Parsons Legacy 14
L’Ami 13
Himalayan Trail 8
War Of Attrition 5
Snowy Morning 7
Character Building 3
Always Waining 3
Fundamentalist 2
Preists Leap 2
Comply or Die 8
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 2
Knowhere 1
Reveillez 1
snowy morning 1
#1217
March 8th, 2009 14:41
sorry meant to be
5. butlers cabin
#1218
March 8th, 2009 14:56
Southern Vic still needs that run and preferably at 25f or more. Not looking so good is it?
#1219
March 8th, 2009 15:08
Agreed it’s a real shame that the race has been abandoned – would have been interesting to see how S Vic got on with blinkers against decent handicappers like Chelsea Harbour and Preists Leap
#1220
March 8th, 2009 15:43
Kilbeggan blade turned over at odds of 1/2, had a hard race and did not look impressive but then again he was carrying 12-1
#1221
March 8th, 2009 15:43
Defeat for Kilbeggan Blade – came 2nd in a poor standard hurle race but, to be fair, was giving a lot of weight to all other runners. Shouldn’t change too much, although it does mean that it has now got a prep run in under the magical 45 days or whatever it is
#1222
March 8th, 2009 15:51
He was actually carrying 11-10 with Rhys Flint’s claim and young Rhys is good value for that 5lbs. I know the race was full of 5 and 6yos some of which are on the upgrade, but it was a poor race and it was a disappointing run. It should bring him on for Aintree though.
#1223
March 8th, 2009 15:57
KB seemed to be struggling from quite a way out, but he did stay on very dourly all the way to the line. Didn’t change my mind about him at all, decent place claims if he jumps round but lacks the class to win it.
#1224
March 8th, 2009 16:09
Only Coral’s and VC still standing Rambling at 20′s Hills have cut to 16′s tempted to chuck a last bit more on him today before it goes.
#1225
March 8th, 2009 16:18
finally, Will Hill have buckled – Rambo now in to 16-1
#1226
March 8th, 2009 16:51
Is it just one more winner before Rambo’s jockey James Reveley loses his three pound allowance or has it already gone? I’ve lost track.
Could it make a difference as we’re cheering him home at The Elbow?
#1227
March 8th, 2009 16:58
JV – fairly sure not allowed to claim allowance in National so don’t think it makes any odds how many winners the boy Reveley rides
#1228
March 8th, 2009 17:10
Victor Chandler into 16s now on Rambo – only Corals out on a limb at 20s
#1229
March 8th, 2009 17:35
just watched the boy reveley give bold ransom a peach of a ride to win – he has got ability – doesn’t panick – bodes well for Rambo
#1230
March 8th, 2009 17:45
Pablo Says:
March 8th, 2009 at 4:58 pm
JV – fairly sure not allowed to claim allowance in National so don’t think it makes any odds how many winners the boy Reveley rides.
I’m sure you’re right, Pablo. He’s notched up another win now so it’s irrelevant.
Reassuring to see the money coming in for Rambo. I’ve probably had my fill for now anyway. Hills have snipped SOP too from 33s to 25s.
#1231
March 8th, 2009 18:06
yeah they got scared when I put another tenner on Rambo earlier this afternoon
hee hee
yeah me big time! ‘ROFL’ing- ‘can you see what it is yet!’ aussie accent. Sorry getting excited and decided its 2 L8 t beat this txt tlk phenomenuminum
#1232
March 8th, 2009 18:22
I am by no mens a huge KB fan, but I agree that 2nd will keep him ticking over and will have nearly 2 stone less (at current weights) and well over a stone less, (even if they rocket), when it comes to the Big Day.
KB, I would be, in a weird way, happier that he has left something in tank to peak later. His connections may well have asked for a decent run through only with GN in mind.
Bodes well though for KB.
Great news re Rambo odds
#1233
March 8th, 2009 18:26
I see SOP also in on odds with WH today – into 25s – now let me see who would be the only one left at 33s, well, er, would that be Corals lol…
#1234
March 8th, 2009 18:28
btw Is AP McCoy tied to any stable t GN? No?
If not I fancy the Lloyd Webbers persuading him to ride Darkness
#1235
March 8th, 2009 18:36
Well I for one am off to Corals to get the last of that 20/1 tomorrow – I’ve already told them i will be coming in the day after the GN with a wheelbarrow to collect the winnings!!!!! (will it last past 2pm tomorrow?). Last chance for the 20/1 – you have been warned.
The bookies are running scared of Rambo – lets keep it that way.
Cant wait to see BC run this week.
KB neither here nor there as expected (but should have won odds on), adds or takes away nothing.
#1236
March 8th, 2009 19:15
btw Is AP McCoy tied to any stable t GN? No?
If not I fancy the Lloyd Webbers persuading him to ride Darkness
yes he is retained to ride any of J P McManus’s horses i.e Butlers Cabin
#1237
March 8th, 2009 19:30
Hi guys,I have to say im struggling to pick 6 as i can only be paid on the 1st 5.All i can say is Rambling minster is my 1st choice by a very long way.I’ve had a little e-w on Southern vic,Preists leap and Black Apalachi but im far from convinced about any of them.I’m going to get some of the 20/1 at corals left on RAMBO and try and stop that french lover Systems from getting any 2mrw!!!Fish cakes anyone!!! IB
#1238
March 8th, 2009 19:34
Right Whackster just grade your Top 6, as in who you prefer from 1st to 6th.
Get it done b4 I leave for Caf in a mo
#1239
March 8th, 2009 19:36
Herewith my top six, sorry no surprises here!
6 RAMBLING MINSTER
5 STATE OF PLAY
4 GARDE CHAMPETRE
3 DARKNESS
2 BUTLERS CABIN
1 PARSONS LEGACY
Just to add, Character Building would be very high on my list of he was to win at Cheltenham this week!
Rambling Minster 142
State Of Play 85
Garde Champetre 46
Darkness 41
Butler’s Cabin 39
Southern Vic 21
Black Apalachi 29
Cornish Sett 24
Kilbeggan Blade 19
Parsons Legacy 15
L’Ami 13
Himalayan Trail 8
War Of Attrition 5
Snowy Morning 7
Character Building 3
Always Waining 3
Fundamentalist 2
Preists Leap 2
Comply or Die 8
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 2
Knowhere 1
Reveillez 1
snowy morning 1
#1240
March 8th, 2009 20:20
RAMBLING MINSTER 6
MY WILL 5
BUTLERS CABIN 4
CHELSEA HARBOUR 3
MON MOME 2
IRISH INVADER 1
Can,t believe there is no points for MY WILL. I have got a good feeling for this one. I know its got the dreaded (FR) next to its name and fails on a couple of the trends but still convinced its going to run a big race.
Rambling Minster 148
State Of Play 85
Garde Champetre 46
Darkness 41
Butler’s Cabin 43
Southern Vic 21
Black Apalachi 29
Cornish Sett 24
Kilbeggan Blade 19
Parsons Legacy 15
L’Ami 13
Himalayan Trail 8
War Of Attrition 5
Snowy Morning 7
my will 5
chelsea harbour 3
Character Building 3
Always Waining 3
Fundamentalist 2
Preists Leap 2
Comply or Die 8
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 2
mon mome 2
irish invader 1
Knowhere 1
Reveillez 1
snowy morning 1
#1241
March 8th, 2009 21:01
alanham
“Can,t believe there is no points for MY WILL. I have got a good feeling for this one”.
Reply:
My Will
Positives:
Won Clas 1 chase
Best RPR 164
Best TS 157
Placed 19/26 chases (very good)
Won 6/26 Chases
5th in this years Hennessy
Negative
OR 152 (above the ten year trend of approx 137 to 144)
Weight 10.10(winnable) +5lb = 11.01(just winnable) + 8lb = 11.03(not winnable)
No 1/2/3rd at 25f i Chase this year.
Only one prep race (needs 3)
Last race 29th Nov (ouside 50 day trend)
Last win Nov 2006 (!!!)
Only one race since April 2007!
Last good TS at or above TS 128 was March 2006 with TS 152
Conclusion:
Probably too much weight.
Only one run this season (something wrong?)
Only the same one run since April 2007.
No win since Nov 2006 – outside 18month trend.
Needs more time and races- will not win if he runs that is.
#1242
March 8th, 2009 21:20
THATS A NO NO THEN HEY SYSTEMS HE HE HE
#1243
March 8th, 2009 21:26
MY WILL – Was top rated in timeform ratings when the weights were first released and is obviously a class horse with good form over the years. Was returning from injury when running a good race in the hennessy and is due out at cheltenham this week. I am slightly worried about lack of races but there has been some good money for this horse and i still am hoping for a big run this week.In 31 races, has only failed 5 times to finish in the first 5.
#1244
March 8th, 2009 21:41
Thanks for your imput though Systemsman.
#1245
March 8th, 2009 21:44
alanham- I like My will and think he has a class chance although he has been campaigned hard and seems older than his years, but others maybe have a better chance certainly statistically speaking. He didn’t make my top6 shortlist mainly because I have decided its quite possible weight could go up 5lb+
Calling all peeps unable to get down to top6!
May I suggest its alot easier and not too unlikely, if you assume cloudy lane becomes top weight or like I did the list for weight going up 5-8lb, this is why one of my anteposts, BA didn’t get a look in
it was the only way I could get down to 6
so Come on! stick um up
#1246
March 8th, 2009 22:13
alanham
“In 31 races, has only failed 5 times to finish in the first 5″.
Reply:
Yes but only one of them since April 2007 and that was a 5th.
As you say, due to run in Gold Cup and will come out knackered!!!!!!!! (its where I see this horse a poor finisher in the Gold Cup not a GN winner)and will he then run in the GN anyway?????
Big drop in OR and more races and who knows for 2010?
#1247
March 8th, 2009 23:22
6=Rambling Minster
5=State of Play
4=Butlers Cabin
3=Hot Weld
2=Hear the Echo
1=Himalayan Trail
my bottom 3 selections were close with other choices but made it on to the list as i see it at this time.
Rambling Minster 154
State Of Play 90
Garde Champetre 46
Darkness 41
Butler’s Cabin 47
Southern Vic 21
Black Apalachi 29
Cornish Sett 24
Kilbeggan Blade 19
Parsons Legacy 15
L’Ami 13
Himalayan Trail 9
War Of Attrition 5
Snowy Morning 7
my will 5
chelsea harbour 3
Character Building 3
Always Waining 3
Fundamentalist 2
Preists Leap 2
Comply or Die 8
Hot Weld 3
Hear the Echo 2
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 2
mon mome 2
irish invader 1
Knowhere 1
Reveillez 1
snowy morning 1
#1248
March 8th, 2009 23:32
6 Rambling Minster
5 Garde Champetre
4 Black Apalachi
3 State of Play
2 Cornish SEtt
1 Darkness
Rambling Minster 160
State Of Play 93
Garde Champetre 51
Darkness 42
Butler’s Cabin 47
Southern Vic 21
Black Apalachi 33
Cornish Sett 26
Kilbeggan Blade 19
Parsons Legacy 15
L’Ami 13
Himalayan Trail 9
War Of Attrition 5
Snowy Morning 7
my will 5
chelsea harbour 3
Character Building 3
Always Waining 3
Fundamentalist 2
Preists Leap 2
Comply or Die 8
Hot Weld 3
Hear the Echo 2
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 2
mon mome 2
irish invader 1
Knowhere 1
Reveillez 1
snowy morning 1
#1249
March 8th, 2009 23:45
Could someone please clarify the “18 month without win” stat that systemsman mentioned above with reference to My Will.
If the stat is a solid one, surely this would rule out Butlers Cabin? (unless he wins at Cheltenham), as he has not won since the Irish National in April 2007, which would represent a two year period.
#1250
March 8th, 2009 23:55
Just as a matter of interest, if anybody is hoping for a win from either Character Building (11-12) or Butlers Cabin (11-8) in the Kim Muir, it is a 9/10 stat of carrying 11-2 or less, and a 10/10 stat of 11-7 and less. If this stat is upheld, neither looks to be capable of winning!
#1251
March 9th, 2009 00:11
“Performance Factor Says:
March 8th, 2009 at 11:45 pm
Could someone please clarify the “18 month without win” stat that systemsman mentioned above with reference to My Will”.
Reply:
Stats from my “GN Black Book”
(You need to update of 2008 as i recorded it prior to 2008 GN)
15 of the last 17 years (up to 2007)GN winner had no more than 18months without a win (the odd ones out AH and SB – although SB misssed 12months through injury). So its 18months unless injury intervenes (I think BC comes under this in 2007).
#1252
March 9th, 2009 00:13
“Performance Factor Says:
March 8th, 2009 at 11:55 pm
Just as a matter of interest, if anybody is hoping for a win from either Character Building (11-12) or Butlers Cabin (11-8) in the Kim Muir, it is a 9/10 stat of carrying 11-2 or less, and a 10/10 stat of 11-7 and less. If this stat is upheld, neither looks to be capable of winning!”
Reply:
Re: BC – a nice 2nd or 3rd will do for me and the GN winning trends.
#1253
March 9th, 2009 09:11
OK, here we go:
1: Rambo 6
2: Butler’s Cabin 5
3: State of Play 4
4: (getting difficult now) Black Apalachi 3
5: Hear the Echo (well I had to didn’t I) 2
6: Comply or Die (should place) 1
Leaving it..
Rambling Minster 160
State Of Play 94
Butler’s Cabin 52
Garde Champetre 46
Darkness 41
Black Apalachi 32
Southern Vic 21
Cornish Sett 24
Kilbeggan Blade 19
Parsons Legacy 15
L’Ami 13
Himalayan Trail 9
Comply or Die 9
War Of Attrition 5
Snowy Morning 7
my will 5
Hear the Echo 4
chelsea harbour 3
Character Building 3
Always Waining 3
Fundamentalist 2
Preists Leap 2
Hot Weld 3
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 2
mon mome 2
irish invader 1
Knowhere 1
Reveillez 1
snowy morning 1
#1254
March 9th, 2009 10:06
Below I have included the stat-based “profile” for Cheltenham Day 1 races. The majority of winners at the meeting will fit the respective profile and this is a useful method of narrowing down the field considerably.
Hope this helps us all boost our betting fund for the Grand National!
SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE
Winning form last time out (Cousin Vinny would have won if not unseating at last)
2-4 races over hurdles
Top 5 in betting
Won 50% of all career hurdle races.
ARKLE
Won Chase over 2m-2m1f (this rules out Calgary Bay)
1st or 2nd in all completed starts over fences
Maximum of 4 seasonal runs
5-7 year old
1st 5 in betting
Allan King or Paul Nichoolls trained
Colt or Gelding
WILLIAM HILL TROPHY HANDICAP
Carrying 11-0 or less
Won Class 3+ Handicap Chase
Won at 3m+
OR 127 – 145
7-10 year old
2nd season Chaser (novices have poor record)
25/1 and shorter
CHAMPION HURDLE
Won 2m-2m1f LTO
Won Grade 1 Hurdle or Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle
10+ Hurdle Races
Previous winner at Cheltenham Festival
Prep run within 2 months
1st 6 in betting
X-COUNTRY CHASE (only 4 previous runnings
Irish trained
Edna Bolger trained
Top 3 in betting
Won Chase in current season
3-4 prep runs
9-12 year old
DAVID NICHOLSON HURDLE
No “profile” as only one previous running
I will apply these trends tonight and give a summary of my findings by tomorrow morning. At this stage, Imsingingtheblues stands out for me in the Arkle. He is available at around 8/1, and that represents real value on the stats, with only Tatenen and Padydeplasterer looking to fit the profile!
HOpe this helps!
#1255
March 9th, 2009 10:09
Just a further note. Where trainers are included in the trends, this should not be used as a method for ruling out runners, purely to boost confidence in the respective profile horse if they are trained by the named trainer, as Indeed Imsingingtheblues is!.
#1256
March 9th, 2009 10:25
Couldn’t be having I’msinging with all the rain we’ve had here in the west country over the last 48hrs. Surely be too much cut in the ground for him, Arkle looks a tricky race this year no real stand out contenders.
#1257
March 9th, 2009 11:26
Brody
Brody, I agree that any significant softening of the ground would have an impact on Imsingtheblues chances, and as stated, I will be looking at the profiles in more depth this evening.
Cheltenham escaped the overnight rain last night and the current going is Good To Soft. He won impressively at Doncaster on this ground and currently, would be the one I am interested in. From my initial analysis, I believe only three horses fit the profile, so although this may look a difficult race on paper, it is one of the better profile races at this stage.
#1258
March 9th, 2009 12:01
Morning All
GRAND NATION TIPS TABLE CLOSES TONIGHT AT MIDNIGHT.
It will then be set to zero and re-open on 18th March after Chelts and next Forfeit Stage.
I will print up analysis of table after final results through.
Good luck if betting at Chelts (as if…lol).
#1259
March 9th, 2009 12:27
My top 6 pre Cheltenham (I know my list will definetely change after Cheltenham)
Rambling Minster = 6
State of play = 5
Garde Champetre = 4
Hear the Echo = 3
Parsons Legacy = 2
Himalayan Trail = 1
So the new tabe looks like
Rambling Minster 166
State Of Play 99
Butler’s Cabin 52
Garde Champetre 50
Darkness 41
Black Apalachi 32
Southern Vic 21
Cornish Sett 24
Kilbeggan Blade 19
Parsons Legacy 17
L’Ami 13
Himalayan Trail 10
Comply or Die 9
War Of Attrition 5
Snowy Morning 7
Hear the Echo 7
my will 5
chelsea harbour 3
Character Building 3
Always Waining 3
Fundamentalist 2
Preists Leap 2
Hot Weld 3
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 2
mon mome 2
irish invader 1
Knowhere 1
Reveillez 1
snowy morning 1
#1260
March 9th, 2009 12:42
Hi Performance.
Great stats. Any chance you could give years for stats. i.e. 12/12 10/11 etc. Plus just to check, when you say grade 1 and grade 3, you actually mean grade and not class right, only cos some people been mixing the two previously.
Thanks
Ells
1
#1261
March 9th, 2009 12:53
My top 6 so far :-
Rambling Minster 6
Black Apalachi 5
State of Play 4
Garde Champetre 3
L’ami 2 (not backed – waiting for Cheltenham)
Butler’s Cabin 1 (not backed – waiting for Cheltenham)
New List :-
Rambling Minster 172
State Of Play 103
Butler’s Cabin 53
Garde Champetre 53
Darkness 41
Black Apalachi 37
Southern Vic 21
Cornish Sett 24
Kilbeggan Blade 19
Parsons Legacy 17
L’Ami 15
Himalayan Trail 10
Comply or Die 9
War Of Attrition 5
Snowy Morning 7
Hear the Echo 7
my will 5
chelsea harbour 3
Character Building 3
Always Waining 3
Fundamentalist 2
Preists Leap 2
Hot Weld 3
Simon 2
Brooklyn Brownie 2
mon mome 2
irish invader 1
Knowhere 1
Reveillez 1
snowy morning 1
#1262
March 9th, 2009 13:07
My fav bet of the festival so far:
EW double
Big Bucks 13/2 world hurdle
Imperial Commander 6/1 Ryanair
Hard to see either out of the first three home which would land a nice little touch and both have IMO very beatable short price favs worth taking on as the win pay out will be massive.
#1263
March 9th, 2009 13:54
PF – thanks for the Cheltenham stats – very useful
I’m running the London Marathon in April and, during my run from Tooting to Epsom and back yesterday, I came to the conclusion that the Grand National is the horse racing equivalent. This is why:
PIES
If you eat too many steak & ale pies (or chicken & mushroom if you prefer but ‘shrooms are the Food of the Devil so not for me) prior to the London Marathon then you’re going to have too much weight to lug round 26.2 miles in the elite field. The same goes for National runners. This will probably rule out everything down to Priests Leap once the weights go up
FITNESS
I’m up to over 20 miles in training and have been training 4 times a week. Although it is important to taper down the training 3 weeks before the big race, you don’t want to miss much training in the 2-3 months preceeding the race. You also want to have run quite a few prep races (10Ks, half marathons etc) before in order to maintain this fitness at a competitive level. Same with the National; lack of fitness means lack of prize money. This rules out King John’s Castle, My Will, Eurotrek, L’antartique, State of Play, Silver Birch, Hobbs Hill, Offshore Account, Parsons Legacy, Reveillez, Golden Flight, Hot Weld, Brooklyn Brownie,
EXPERIENCE
Marathon runners peak when they get older. Gebressalassie was a world beater at 10k and half marathon level but took several attempts to master the marathon, it comes with experience. Same with the National; this rules out Big Fella Thanks, Opera Mundi, Can’t buy Time, Piraya.
HALF MARATHON
No-one has won the London Marathon since it was formed without having won at least a half marathon before. Got to prove your stamina and, sadly, some of our National runners have failed to do so. Cheerio to Irish Invader and Tumbling Dice
LONDON MARATHON EXPERIENCES
Plenty of runners who have previously not won the London Marathon have returned to win it, but not those who finished way behind. Also, some runners just don’t take to the hurly burly of London; falling over fellow runners and slipping on loose Lucozade Sport bottles. Same with the National; this gets rid of Mon Mome, L’Ami, Simon, Cornish Sett.
FORM
It’s all well and good having won a half marathon a long time ago but if you’ve finished way down the field in your last couple of competitive races, you ain’t going to win London which attracts a high class field. This rules out Butler’s Cabin, Battlecry, Silverburn, Always Waining, Conna Castle, Himalayan Trail.
CLASS
It’s all well and good winning a minor marathon like the ‘Totteridge Trotters Marathon’ but it would take too much of a leap to translate this to the world of the big boys. Bye bye Character Building. Similarly, you could hold out with the big boys until 24 or 25 miles but then just not have the turn of pace to see them off at the end. It is a fond farewell to Ballyfitz and, sadly, The Blade of Kilbeggan. Also, most athletes who specialise in running through the cross country bogs of the UK countryside just don’t have the quality when it comes to the proper races. Good effort from Garde Champetre but no cigar to the lad.
Which leaves us with Miko de Beauchene, Rambling Minster, Darkness, Southern Vic and…erm…Fleet Street and Fundamentalist!?!
On a more serious (and exceptionally cheeky!) note, if anyone wins big at either Cheltenham or Aintree and has any cash to burn then please consider donating a bit to my chosen marathon charity. They are called Treloar’s and they specialise in providing care, support and education for children with life limiting cerebral palsy & muscular dystrophy. If anyone wishes to, they can log on to:
http://www.justgiving.com/grahamsutherland.
I apologise for this completely brazen approach but I’ve learned that if you never ask then you never get!
By the way, does anyone else think Golden Silver has got a real e/w chance in the Arkle if it is soft? If so, then take the 20/1 whilst you can!
#1264
March 9th, 2009 14:06
Some titbits of information today 1. – war of attrition will miss the gold cup and go straight for the grand national … (least well have a serious bit of class in the race to spice it up …) 2.southern vic will run in the rearranged leinster national next monday or else at down royal a few days later in a 3m 2f chase …
#1265
March 9th, 2009 15:03
Using the stats (see below) for the champion hurdle kindly provided for us by Performance factor then i make it that no horse is going to win lol.
The closest horse to a match is Brave Inca. (only fails by not being in top 6 of the betting.
However i have gone for Katchit e/w as i think this has to be one of the best value bets on the opening day (BET365 paying top 4) as this horse loves Cheltenham.
CHAMPION HURDLE
Won 2m-2m1f LTO
Won Grade 1 Hurdle or Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle
10+ Hurdle Races
Previous winner at Cheltenham Festival
Prep run within 2 months
1st 6 in betting
#1266
March 9th, 2009 16:43
War of attrition to go for National.. just read this on the RP site. currently @ 33-1 on coral , backed in to 38 on betfair from ~75′s .. opinions please?
#1267
March 9th, 2009 16:55
Performance factor;
on the stat for the supreme novice
SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE
Winning form last time out (Cousin Vinny would have won if not unseating at last)
2-4 races over hurdles
Top 5 in betting
Won 50% of all career hurdle races
on the stat 2-4 races over hurdles. does this mean a min of 2 races and a maximum of 4.
#1268
March 9th, 2009 17:45
Interesting outsider Brooklyn Brownie entered for class3, 25f chase at Wetherby on Saturday. So he will be short of a 17k win whatever happens but, if he runs, he will have had a prep within 8 weeks, 52 days, of GN, 36/36.
#1269
March 9th, 2009 17:47
I know 8 weeks is 56 days! just stating 52 days as this has been the longest lay off since 71.
#1270
March 9th, 2009 17:51
Looking at that Sefton race(in which Brooklyn Brownie finished 2nd) of course the young jock of the moment James Reveley gave the late Endless Power a great ride over the GN fences to win the race.
#1271
March 9th, 2009 18:01
my bets for tomorrow i think
lucky 15
go native
golden silver
katchit
witchita lineman
ew bet – the sawyer 33s
#1272
March 9th, 2009 19:09
Johnny
The Supreme Novices stat is between 2 – 4 runs over hurdles.
Hope this helps.
Will have my full review of the “profile” horses for tomorrow online later tonight or first thing tomorrow morning.
#1273
March 9th, 2009 21:24
Hi Performance
I asked before, not sure if you’ve seen. Any chance you could give years for those trends, i.e. 23/23 or 11/12 etc.
Thanks
Ells
1
#1274
March 9th, 2009 21:29
Thought i’d start the Cheltenham selections of
Supreme novices – Kempes
Arkle – Imsingintheblues
willhill trophy – Wichita lineman
Champ hurdle – Really not sure think its between Binocular/celestial halo and Askazar
Cross contry chase – Garde Champetre
no idea on last race
Good website for the trend followers
http://www.cheltenhamfestivaltips.co.uk
combined a number of my selections with RAMBO
#1275
March 9th, 2009 22:54
Two for tomorrow and not at Cheltenham! – while the high rollers lose we will slip across to Southwell and make “loads of money” (it does depend on your stakes ofcourse)
Recommend:
Race 1 – 4*
15.05 Southwell
Indian Drive 1pt
Obe Royal .2pt(2/10ths of a point)
i.e. £10 on Indian Drive to win and £2 on Obe Royal to win. Current prices 6/7 and 24/5 (Betfair)(You may need to adjust if the prices change a lot)
Race 2 5*
17.05 Southwell
Never Lose (!) 2pts
Others nothing!!
1.e Never Lose £20 to win (not covred as it will win). Current price 8/11 (Betfair).
Its all about making a profit and money in the GN War Chest!
#1276
March 9th, 2009 23:04
Bets for 2mrw that look good e-w value are KEMPES 1-30,FORPADYDEPLASTERER 2-05 and CELESTIAL HALO 3-15 and add UNITED in the last if you fancy a lucky 15.LET BATTLE COMMENCE.Oh and for these 4 horses let the HEAVENS open!!!
#1277
March 10th, 2009 01:32
Been doing some studying for Midlands National this Saturday and GVA Ireland was an interesting winner in 2006 because he has Strong Gale on his dam side, as dam sire – and connections sure that he’d stay the four miles, which he duly did on heavy ground at 5/1F
Therefore, although I have pretty compelling evidence that Strong Gale was not successful as a sire of 4m+ runners, the jury might be out on whether Strong Gale is such a negative on the dam side for these marathon races (Southern Vic, Hear The Echo, Darkness, Fundamentalist & Offshore Account all have Strong Gale as dam sire – War Of Attrition one generation further back on the dam’s side)
Southern Vic’s next run will be interesting – will top up on my saver if he runs well
There is one very interesting horse entered for the Midlands on Saturday but no prices out yet unfortunately – hopefully they’ll be out on Thursday when final declarations out
Or just get the Mirror on Saturday – Valuescope on a 6-timer for his tips in the Midlands Grand National
#1278
March 10th, 2009 11:35
Morning All
Good Luck with your Chelts bets.
The GRAND NATIONAL TIPS LEAGUE TABLE is now closed until after Chelts and the next GN forfeit stage.
It will be re-open on Thursday March 19, which will give us the 18th to mull over the news of the drop outs from the next forfeit stage, which probably won’t be known (if anything like last time) until well on into the day of Wednesday the 18th.
Now where was that sticky back plastic…
Val Singleton
#1279
March 10th, 2009 12:31
Ammended recommendation for today:
For those who wish to avoid a bad day at Cheltenham and build the GN War chest.
Changed stakes:
Recommend:
Race 1 – 3* bet
15.05 Southwell
Indian Drive 2.1pts
Obe Royal 1.3pts (some danger here. its now a much closer race))
i.e. £21 on Indian Drive to win and £13 on Obe Royal to win. Current prices 6/4 and 3/1(some 7/2 avilable).You may need to adjust if the prices change a lot more.
Would return an £18 ponds profit whichever of the two wins (Indian Drive price has gone out since last night) .
Race 2 5* bet
17.05 Southwell
Never Lose (!) 2.5pts
Duke of Urbino .834pts
1.e Never Lose £50 to win and Duke of Urbino £8.34 to win at 4/7 and 6/1 (some 13/2 avilable) currently. Would return £20.23 profit if Never Lose wins (and it will)and money back should the impossible happen and Duke of Urbino wins (you might want to place the cover bet later to make sure The Duke is 2nd Fav -it could still be Aahaygirl at the off). I cant see Never Lose (if taking to AW) losing but best to play safe at a good price for cover.
#1280
March 10th, 2009 12:39
Sorry for delay in posting my promised findings from the Cheltenham stats I posted yesterday.
My selections for today as follows:
2.05 – IMSINGINGTHEBLUES
Only 3 genuine “proflie” horses here in the above, Tatenen and Forpadytheplasterer. The weather has been kind to the selection overnight!
3.20 – BINOCULAR
This is a poor race for stats this year and I think Binocular is an exceptional horse capable of overcoming his inexperience (usually 10+ runs over hurdles).
4.00 – GARDE CHAMPETRE
He beat L’ami by 1 1/4 lengths over course and distance in December and is weighted to confirm the form. I think L@ami would be better over slightly shorter.
I will post the stats for Day 2 this evening.
#1281
March 10th, 2009 13:22
hey there, can I ask how we are going to read a good performance from Comply today? I feel if he runs well with the blinkers back on, he has a good chance of winning GN with upto 11-01.
Although I came to the conclusion that weights could well go up 8lb I am backtracking thinking that ED or Snoopy may have a go and if they do that brings alot of horses back into play and once again my head is hurting (and not just from all the beers last night!)
#1282
March 10th, 2009 14:31
why is Golden Flight down to 14s on Betfair?
#1283
March 10th, 2009 14:36
14s for GN that is…
#1284
March 10th, 2009 14:49
back out to 33s – take it just anticipatin a decent run today…
#1285
March 10th, 2009 14:51
No idea Showlad certainly not on collective radar!?
I haven’t managed to resist having a go at cheltenham, usually I loose but started well, backed Go Native yesterday, hoorah! out of Be My Native so had to with the soft! drifted out after I backed it, always a worrying business this.
Showlad and anyone else ofcourse, what are you looking for in the 1440 today regarding the GN entries, I’m esp interested in COD but like I said earlier today here, not sure how to read it?! notice noone got a tip for winner in this one, I’ve gone for Star.
#1286
March 10th, 2009 15:02
Esp interesdted in Hot Weld, Reveillez and Golden Flight.
Not too int in COD (unless he storms home by 40 lengths)
#1287
March 10th, 2009 15:04
Nice one KJ, Johnny and Systemsman with Go Native
Showlad – lowest price matched is 46 – so nothing to worry about yet
#1288
March 10th, 2009 15:15
Cheers Pablo – just wonedred when he plummeted down to 14s, lol (thought he had just won somewhere else and I’d missed it lol)
Nice one Wacky and all re Paddy
#1289
March 10th, 2009 15:21
People often cancel their lay offers when a horse is about to run in another race. That’s quite ususal especially when there’s little action on that horse. The Betfair market will right itself after the race.
#1290
March 10th, 2009 15:51
unbelievable ride from AP
#1291
March 10th, 2009 16:11
indeed Pablo amazing.
think he did well, up for it in blinkers, couldn’t go with it near the end and I take that as not match fit. Carrying 11-05 was unlikely to get top 3 and in the soft, its a positive from me, and place claims if 11-01 or less hopefully in the big one 
Didn’t see any of GN fancies other than the unwillingness of Hot Weld, red pen time. And ofcourse I only had eyes for Comply! sorry I’m a softie
#1292
March 10th, 2009 16:14
Comply or die 7th
Reveillez 11th
Golden Flight 12th
Fundamentalist, Simon, Hot Weld not listed in top 17 on results yet so must have tailed off or pulled up
Golden Flight is 15s on Betfari – what is that about?!
#1293
March 10th, 2009 16:53
Fundamentalist, Simon and Hot Weld all pulled up. Disappointing run from Reveillez and Golden Flight made mistakes. Better from Comply or Die but nothing’s giving me the jitters.
#1294
March 10th, 2009 17:13
garde champetre good gutsy 1st today imo
#1295
March 10th, 2009 17:17
Yep, impressed with Garde. Very good ride from Nina I thought. I don’t think it will make much difference to National odds though. I’ve got a gut feeling that Bolger won’t run Garde though. No basis for that, just a gut!
#1296
March 10th, 2009 17:22
went for Garde there although L’Ami was always going to go close.
Interesting how L’Ami looked a bit worried about a couple of fences especially the faux canal turn nearing the end, also seems to hold back? anyway, seems to have grown into a worrier, it puts me off him
#1297
March 10th, 2009 17:23
Garde Champetre’s price seems to be collapsing.
#1298
March 10th, 2009 17:28
yep only worry for Garde is the possibility of Bolger not running him, price falling all round,
wish someone would pin that man down and get some answers!
#1299
March 10th, 2009 17:58
A BIG BIG Gold Star to anyone who can source Enda quoting ANYTHING about Garde’s intentions – he’s just won at Chelts so there MUST be a quote SOMEWHERE.
DO we lay off on him now in case he’s out by Tues or what lol?
#1300
March 10th, 2009 18:23
only Seagram has won at the Festival and then won the GN in the last how many years? 40? 60? more? Its certainly a long long time.
#1301
March 10th, 2009 18:30
Garde won a Class2 race again. Now a win at Cheltenham and the GN is against the trends I believe – how many years? Still GC has always been in my short list and most other peoples.
I dont think it changes much.
Rambo is the one! (but lets hope BC comes 2/3 this week and not 1st so that we have match Rambo/Butlers). However can it ever be wrong to win a race trends or no trends?
Bring it on – Ramboooooooooo!
#1302
March 10th, 2009 19:10
Forgive my moment of celebration but its nice when you all it right i it not?
Cheltenham Day 1:
Advised March 8th:
“I agree Torphichen (7/1, Supreme Novices)is a good EW bet (Cousin Vinny has beaten nothing so far! a week Fav). Better still take four against the Fav Torphichen (7) , Go Native (10) , Kempes (12) , Micheal Flips (12) – 1pt on each would return a minimum of 4pts profit! A good start to the Cheltenham Festival if all goes well (and more money if the GN War Chest)”.
So 4pts invested on To, GN, Ke, MF – Profit 9pts (GN won at 12/1)!
Advised March 9th and 10th (amended)
“Two for tomorrow and not at Cheltenham! – while the high rollers lose we will slip across to Southwell and make “loads of money” (it does depend on your stakes ofcourse)”
“Indian Drive 2.1pts
Obe Royal 1.3pts (some danger here. its now a much closer race))
i.e. £21 on Indian Drive to win and £13 on Obe Royal to win. Current prices 6/4 and 3/1(some 7/2 avilable).You may need to adjust if the prices change a lot more.
Would return an £18 pounds profit whichever of the two wins (Indian Drive price has gone out since last night) .
Obe Royal won – advised early price of 3/1 (7/2 was also available o the Net). Profit 1.8pts
“17.05 Southwell
Never Lose (!) 2.5pts
Duke of Urbino .834pts
1.e Never Lose £50 (double stake)to win and Duke of Urbino £8.34 to win at 4/7 and 6/1 (some 13/2 avilable) currently. Would return £20.23 profit if Never Lose wins (and it will)and money back should the impossible happen and Duke of Urbino wins (you might want to place the cover bet later to make sure The Duke is 2nd Fav -it could still be Aahaygirl at the off). I cant see Never Lose (if taking to AW) losing but best to play safe at a good price for cover.
Never Lose won – advised £50 at early price of 4/7 + £28.57 – £8.34 (advised cover)= +£20.23 (i had a much bigger bet on this with some uncoverd)
Totals (at 1pt = £10)
Bet 1 + 9pts (£90)
Bet 2 + 1.8pts (£18)
Bet 3 + 2.23pts (£20.23)
Profit: £128.23 for 1pt =£10 (and it would be more if you staked higher)or +12.82pts – a good start.
#1303
March 10th, 2009 19:11
chelt for tomorrow
ew treble
gone to lunch
coe
diamond harry
might even put masterminded on it aswell
#1304
March 10th, 2009 19:35
Just realised just how great the Bank of Rambo is. Your getting over 80% interest on your money if you back him now at 20/1.
Assuming hes 11/1 on the day (could well be shorter) a £10 stake rewards you with a £18.18 lay on the day. That’s 81.8% interest. Its amazing that whilst we are in such a recession, a bank is willing to offer such good interest rates. We know he is going to run, we know he will make the 40, we know he will have no more prep runs and therefore we know his price will drop. Sure he could get injured in training but your bank could collapse – Northern Rock anyone?
My advice – put £1000 in the Bank of Rambo today and get your 82% or higher interest rate now. Or.. take 50% interest rate and have £3500 if he wins
.
O and the State of Play Bank is offering pretty good rates too. Same situation as Rambo. 33s into 16s offers more than 100% interest lol.
Ells
1
#1305
March 10th, 2009 19:49
Oh LSTD….please don’t put a jinx on us!
Think of the poor wives and children suffering another summer holiday at Pontins, Southport…
#1306
March 10th, 2009 20:02
As promised, herewith “profile” for Cheltenham Day Two!
NATIONAL HUNT CHALLENGE CUP (poor trends race!)
7-10 year old
Finished 1st or 2nd in 3m+ chase
Finished in first 4 LTO
Jonjo O’Neill trained
BALLYMORE NOVICE HURDLE
5-6 year old
1st 5 in betting
Finished in 1st 3 LTO
Won one of last 2 outings
ROYAL SUN ALLIANCE
7-8 year old
Top 2 finish LTO
2-5 races over fences
Colt or Gelding
Win earlier in season
Nicholls / Mullins trained
Under 25/1
QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
Previous win at 2m1f
8+ career chase runs
Top 5 in betting
Paul Nicholls trained
No more than 4 seasonal runs
CORAL CUP
11st 3lb or less
6-8 year old
Phillip Hibbs trained
Top 6 finish LTO (give preference to LTO winner)
33/1 or less in market
FRED WINTER JUVENILE (only 4 previous runnings)
10-10+
Won LTO
No more than 3 races over hurdles
Raced within 37 days
CHAMPION BUMPER
Won LTO
Won bumper with 15+ runners
No more than 4 bumper runs
5-6 year old
1st 6 in betting
Willie Mullins trained
Good Luck
#1307
March 10th, 2009 21:59
Wednedsay Recommendation.
Master Minded? Not for me (altough I think he will win). Instead we are going to enjoy watching Cheltenham and then hop over to the AW again at Kempton in the evening.
7.50 kempton
Sanvean 4pts (£40) to win (no saver). Currently 11/21 with Betfair(take it if you can, a great price tonight) but likely to be a lot less tomorrow – take the best price in the morning you can get. If it takes to the AW, will win doing hand stands (Master Minded at Cheltenham or Sanvean at Kempton on the AW? Its the AW for me!!).
More money for the GN War Chest I hope (but we wont make much on this). Invest dont gamble!
#1308
March 10th, 2009 22:02
GARDE CHAMPETRE
If we believe the RPR for today’s Cross Country race…
Then, on face value this is the best handicapped runner I have found in the last 10 years – 26lb well in according to RPR – GN rating (142)
His RPR of 168 has only ever been beaten by the following horses entered in 2009 (at some point in their career)
Exotic Dancer (this season)
Madison Du Berlais (this season)
War Of Attrition (3 years ago)
Notre Pere (this season)
Monkerhostin (3 years ago – very likely non runner – so ignore)
Snoopy Loopy (this season)
Star De Mohaison (this season)
… and all set to carry 11’0 or over, while GC carries 10’0
So what’s the catch?
Will it stay? Might well do – same sire as Royal Auclair
Has it qualified by doing well in a key race? N-O, No
Did it have a hard race at Cheltenham? Maybe
Will it be entered for Grand National or will it go to Punchestown agaain? Who knows…
But can see why price coming in
HOWEVER
According to RPR today L’Ami equalled his best ever performance of 4th to War Of Attrition in Gold cup
Can we trust these Cross Country ratings???
#1309
March 10th, 2009 23:07
Day 2 Festival tips are COE 1.30(2nd to RAMBO),MAD MAX 2.05(beat Karabak but double its price)and a 25/1 shot SEIGEMASTER.Very profitable day today following ten year trends.Layed BINOCULAR and COUSIN VINNY and will be laying the front 4 in the RSA chase.Good luck
#1310
March 11th, 2009 06:14
Hi guys
Found this little scrap of info just now. Its late I know
Nina Carberry and Garde Champetre had too much class for his stable companion L’Ami and the winning jockey can now dream again of becoming the first female rider to win the Grand National.
“He’s really beginning to get the hang of it now,” said winning trainer Enda Bolger. “The key to him is Nina. Ruby and AP rode him but no-one ever got a tune out of him like Nina. He’s in the National with 10st 2lb. It’s JP’s call but I’ll be pushing for it.”
Looks like he wants it in. Shame there’s been no talk of L’ami’s intentions, got more money on him than GC.
All I will say is that was really easy for the 2 of em today. If your horse is gonna win at Cheltenham that’s how you want them to win. Didn’t need to worry about the rest of the field. Had it so easy. Can’t believe its taken much out of either of them.
Ells
1
#1311
March 11th, 2009 08:46
getb on gc before the day with a female jockey it will be the housewife fav and odds wll be tumble
#1312
March 11th, 2009 08:47
Nice to see Corals still go 20/1 on RAMBO.
#1313
March 11th, 2009 10:11
Haven’t seen the race yesterday, but note that Simon was pulled up. Any problem, or just not get into the race?
#1314
March 11th, 2009 10:30
Top 3 in C1 chase stat.
Found that Hallo Dandy finished 3rd at Aintree in 82 in what was called ‘Kelvinator’ chase, 25f, 5k. Quite possibly C1 chase, any ideas? Grittar finished 2nd in Whitbread Trial, Sandown, 24f, 9k, in ’82. American Ben Nevis ’80 won two 32f Maryland Hunt Cups which is one of the most prestigious chases in USA, and surely comparable to C1 in Blighty. From the 70′s Red Rum, L’escargot, Rag Trade, Lucius and Rubstic all had, to the best of my knowledge and Times Archive, top3 in C1 chase stat and at distance of 25f or further.
To sum then a 33/35 stat – top3 in C1 chase – with confirmation of Grittar ’82/Hallo Dandy ’84 pending?
(is it only Grittar, Red Marauder and Monty’s Pass -didn’t race further than 24f- who haven’t had top 3 in C1 chase at 25f or further?)
#1315
March 11th, 2009 10:36
Top 3 in C1 chase stat. Just noticed that all those with borderline queries or top 3 in C1 chase stat at only 24f or less had all had a run over GN fences.(coincidence?) Ben Nevis- brought down in 79 GN, Grittar – won hunters chase in 81, Hallo Dandy 4th in GN in 83,Red Marauder – fell in GN in 01, Montys Pass – 2nd in topham in 02.
#1316
March 11th, 2009 12:40
* Garde Champetre news*
WEll guys i was in the bookies this morning putting on my bets for today and they were reviewing yesterdays action on the screen, they got on to the cross country race and reported the following…….
Ed Bolger said after the race that garde Champetre did the job like a class horse, he is entered for the national and off of 10-2(not too sure why he said 10-2 as he only has 10st) i would like to take our chance as this horse has earned it, i will have to sit down and talk it over with the boss.
So going by what they quoted him as saying it looks like he wants to take his chance.
So Showlad come on wheres my big big gold star
#1317
March 11th, 2009 13:13
Churchtown Boy Says:
March 11th, 2009 at 10:11 am
Haven’t seen the race yesterday, but note that Simon was pulled up. Any problem, or just not get into the race?
Simon was never traveling from a long way out and was quickly dropped off, PU was the only thing the jockey could do. If I had money on him I’d be pretty worried by that run him and Hot Weld looked a long way from ready for a GN tilt, although Hot Weld has the excuse that he would have hated that ground.
#1318
March 11th, 2009 14:02
thanks Lough and puzzled for the good news intentions of Enda re Garde, think they’d be MAD not to have a go being given 10-0! and with little standout opposition with form and preps.
I agree it was a good hack for both Garde and L’ami, the kinda race that won’t take too much out of them, esp. Garde! who finished the race with 11-12, ears pricked and no puffing, total stayer!
L’Ami who I haven’t backed still, gave me niggling concerns
think he may have his own ideas and get a bit spooked when jumping, although to be fair only at taking the angle on the canal type fence.
He looks nervous, and had a bit of a blow at the end, although he does look like he could give more at the end maybe he hasn’t?!
Will Hill Trophy all fancies were v.disappointing, except Comply,
my concern there is he looked a bit knackered for the last few fences and although I take this as not match fit.. will it take it out of him or bring him on?
#1319
March 11th, 2009 14:34
Thanks Lough and Puzzled. We do have our spies on this iste, don’t we….lol!
Great news re Garde, I have an amount on him and rather than analyse to death what we don’t know, I will just look forward to viewing on the Big Day a horse who’s been winning at 4m on cross country, carrying 2 stone more than at GN, to see if he translates at GN.
IF he does – watch out!!
If not it was a bet in my book you simply could not ignore
#1320
March 11th, 2009 14:45
And another one bites the dust
#1321
March 11th, 2009 14:45
Well done Lough Derg and Puzzled,i was very happy with Garde yesterday and even happier reading those quotes,my main hope and stand to win a decent amount on him.I’m now a convert to Nina Carberry she was great yesterday and seems to be able to get the best out of him.I hope some of you chaps took the 40s i advised a couple of weeks ago!
#1322
March 11th, 2009 14:52
A fine effort from garde and as i said at the time i think hes got away with murder by getting in with 10-0 . i think he has to be on anybodys short list given his ability to stay 4m , carring ten stone and being in the form of his life. my only negative is that these races seem to be run at a slightly slower pace to standard races and he may get taken off his feet a bit in the early stages . however he’ll be staying on when others have cried enough . anybody not yet on would be advised to take the prices just now because if nina gets the nod hes going to be the housewives favourite and watch those odds tumble.wouldnt be surprised at all if it goes off fav or 2nd fav
#1323
March 11th, 2009 15:05
could you still get 40s 2wks ago! I got 40s a month or so ago wish I got more on now! Nina did it nicely,got to say I hope Nina doesn’t follow L’Ami in GN though, like I said I think L’Ami may have his own nervous thoughts about jumping there, anyone else got opinion on L’Amis performance, has he always looked nervous and thoughtful? am I reading too much into it? was on my top 6 list.
#1324
March 11th, 2009 15:30
KJ I thought L’Ami travelled and jumped very well only one he seemed to look a bit nervous at the Aintree replica fence, bad memories perhaps! Jumping was very good from both horses otherwise. Personally I learnt nothing new about Garde yesterday already knew he was a class performer, really can’t wait to see him and Rambo run in April got on Garde at 40′s as soon as I saw him on the initial entry list was the first name on the list that stood out.
#1325
March 11th, 2009 15:44
True, its the bad memories that worries me, thanks Brody.
Any other GN horses running today, I’ve had a bit on ballyfitz today,
Notelppa you said another one bites the dust, which horse do u mean?
#1326
March 11th, 2009 15:53
Can’t buy time. Can’t run 4 miles.
#1327
March 11th, 2009 16:13
don’t know why I bothered with that there, coulda done better just backin horses with double same letter names today, talked myself out of tricky trickster and was gonna go for massinis maguire there, damn.
In the money yesterday, should leave it now, this is always what happens to me at cheltenham, I should sew up my pockets now! just leave it alone!
Ah Notelppa indeed, but like ballyfitz not a hope.
too little too late? drifted at bookies.
What did anyone make of Complys return?
Noone wants to know
#1328
March 11th, 2009 16:34
Showlad/ Val Singleton; Cornish Sett has lost 6 points in the league table! Just disappeared. Knock them in to shape. Sett Knoakesy on them. Is Lesley Judd available as League table referee? If this carries on we’ll have to turn over to Magpie!
#1329
March 11th, 2009 16:44
Can Garde Champetre win? Big top 3 in C1 chase stat to overcome
(I don’t think we’ve had many runners up who haven’t had place in C1).
#1330
March 11th, 2009 17:05
Ninetieth Minute get in!!
#1331
March 11th, 2009 18:26
March 8th, 2009 at 10:45 am
E/W yankee for a bit of fun at Cheltenham and to hopefully add some more ammunition to the Rambo funds:
Torphichen (7/1, Supreme Novices) – David Pipe very keen on this one, stable in form, his Dad sent out another 4 year old to win this 10 years ago (Hors La Loi III), should be a big improver
Ninetieth Minute (20/1, Coral Cup) – Well handicapped on this season’s form, longer trip will not be a problem as by Old Vic and the forecast rain will help slow down the speedier types, should be staying on nicely at the end of the race
Dunbuig (7/1, Bumper) – Looks to have the best form on offer and would be much shorter, if not clear favourite, if trained by Willie Mullins – really impressive in last run
Rambling Minster (20/1) – You know why…
Torphichen didn’t do well but lots more ammo for Rambo on 4th April now!!!
#1332
March 11th, 2009 19:29
Crisp, I have a book signing ’101 things to do in the bedroom with sticky back plastic by Val Singleton’.
Pls re-post final table up and amend points.
From this I will base my anlaysis on.
Well spotted…got to rush…places to be…people to see..sticky back plastic’s for me..
#1333
March 11th, 2009 20:08
WACKO DIDNT THINK WE WOULD HERE FROM YOU.NOT A GOOD DAY AT THE OFFICE HEY.YOU COULDNT PICK A SCAB.!!!!
#1334
March 11th, 2009 21:51
well guys here’s the latest on Garde Champetre…..from the racing post.
THE jury is still out on whether Garde Champetre, winner of the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase for the second year running on Tuesday, will go for the Grand National next month.
Bookmakers have trimmed the Aintree odds of Enda Bolger’s ten-year-old – one of two winners for JP McManus on the opening day of the festival – but the owner’s racing manager, Frank Berry, said: “Nothing has been decided at the minute. We will get him home and give him a week and see how he is.”
#1335
March 11th, 2009 23:15
I would rather back a few losers than be fat and ugly like you minty!!!!!!!Why don’t you jusy GO FOR ONE!!! IB
#1336
March 11th, 2009 23:46
Well this is a GN site and NOT a Cheltenham one, so as long as Wacky delivers the goods with his tips for the Big Day –
I for one will be happy
#1337
March 12th, 2009 02:12
Big day for Character Building and Butler’s tomorrow hoping they both put up a good show.
#1338
March 12th, 2009 12:39
Howdi folks – just a quickie and looking ahead to the weekend whilst i lick my cheltenham wounds ! (good luck to those whove done well ) , does anybody know where ruby walsh is riding on sat? . is there any chance that he may take the ride on southern vic on sat . ? if he does and the horse runs well then who decides what rubys grand national mount will be? . the reason i ask is that ruby rode cooldine for willie mullins yest even though paul nicholls had what a friend in the race . so how do they decide who he will be on for the nat ? is there some sort of gentlemans agreement here ?- southern vic ? , big fella thanks , my will ? who will it be – anybody have the answers on this one
#1339
March 12th, 2009 12:54
Interesting thoughts Silver, and would JP want McCoy on Garde?
#1340
March 12th, 2009 13:00
Another winner yesterday:
“Wednesday Recommendation.
Master Minded? Not for me (altough I think he will win). Instead we are going to enjoy watching Cheltenham and then hop over to the AW again at Kempton in the evening.
7.50 kempton
Sanvean 4pts (£40) to win (no saver)”. Early price advised.
8/15 available right up to just before first show (amazing considering the form of the horse). So thats anothers 2.13pts (or £21.13 at 1pt =£10)to add to the GN War Chest.
Gn War Chest
Totals (at 1pt = £10)
Bet 1 + 9pts (£90)
Bet 2 + 1.8pts (£18)
Bet 3 + 2.23pts (£22.30)
Bet 4 + 2.13pts (£21.30)
Profit: £151.60 for 1pt =£10 (and it would be more if you staked higher)or +15.16pts.
Thurday.
Now I bet you all think I’am going off to an AW track or Hexham – wrong, we are going to back at Cheltenham! This is the day i have been waiting for my “Banker” at Cheltenham. Been waiting for months for this one, cant wait for the race.
Recommendation for GN War Chest:
15.20 Cheltenham World Hurdle
Kasbah Bliss 3pts (£30) at 5/4 (Coral/Lad)
Punchestowns (fullcover) 1pts (£10) at 7/2 (Lad/WH)
Take the morning prices to gurantee the return (if any)
If KB wins you would make £37.50 – £10 (cover) = £27.50 profit (+2.75pts).
Now KB is a bloody monster with speed, speed and more speed and will destroy all opposition up that Cheltenham hill. I not only thing he will win this year but in 2010 as well (if he stays fit). A better horse this year than last when he only just lost the race and a G3 flat winner!! (also ran well in a G1!!!). His last race PRP 173 was the same as Cheltenham last year and there is more to come. Punchestowns would win bar KB but thats racing but he has to be repected. Pun Cheltenham form is nothing special 3/8, 1/19, 2/8 (latest)so will be very vunerable to KB’s fast finish.
What a great race its going to be with BB trying to get one over on Punchestowns again (unlikely).
Now on another note Butlers Cabin runs today at 16.40 a “must” watch for any GN fan. Lets just say this “now is the race”, “now is the day” and “now is the hour” for BC to show form (hidden so far to maintain his weight). Its why I will have a small EW bet at 28/1 (Coral)- this is not one of my recomended bets but he really does have to show some form today – a good 2/3 will do and then he can race toe to toe with Rambo in the GN – what a race that will be.
#1341
March 12th, 2009 13:11
I’m with you Systemsman. I have a substantial investment on Butler’s Cabin for the National and am desperate to see him run well this afternoon. Would be a shame to have all my eggs in the Rambling Minster basket come the day (bar a saver on Garde that I’ve already made) and since I’ve championed BC since January despite his lacklustre form it will be egg on face and not in baskets if he flops today. Skipping out of work early to watch the race and my nails will be strimmed come 4.40.
#1342
March 12th, 2009 13:24
Systemsman just thought i’d let you know i listened to cheltenham stable interveiw with jonjo on racing post website, were he explained that Butler’s was very well,the race at chelt would bring him on, but he was fit,the most important point he made was that the horse needed proper good ground to show his best along with alberta’s run as he hates the soft ground lets hope it is drying out at cheltenham,with good spring weather to come for aintree.
#1343
March 12th, 2009 13:45
SILVER BIRCH Says:
March 12th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
Howdi folks – just a quickie and looking ahead to the weekend whilst i lick my cheltenham wounds ! (good luck to those whove done well ) , does anybody know where ruby walsh is riding on sat? . is there any chance that he may take the ride on southern vic on sat . ? if he does and the horse runs well then who decides what rubys grand national mount will be? . the reason i ask is that ruby rode cooldine for willie mullins yest even though paul nicholls had what a friend in the race . so how do they decide who he will be on for the nat ? is there some sort of gentlemans agreement here ?- southern vic ? , big fella thanks , my will ? who will it be – anybody have the answers on this one
Whilst watching cheltenham on channel 4 yesterday they mentioned that it was Ruby’s choice between cooldine and what a friend and he choose cooldine.
Not sure if he gets the choice in the national though!
crisp 73 Says:
March 12th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
Interesting thoughts Silver, and would JP want McCoy on Garde?
Lets hope not as Enda Bolger has even stated himself that no-one rides GC like Nina and that includes AP and ruby and you would hope that JP can see that as well and leave it to Nina.
#1344
March 12th, 2009 13:56
hee, wish all loyal BC fans the best of luck, and any cheltenham fans too. I’m not playing today, hope to nip out and watch BC and CB, god knows what to do if they run well for once
still don’t think I’ll fancy them.
Worrying thought that JP would want AP to ride Garde!!! yikes!
I really want Nina to keep the ride, like someone said think she is the key to this horse.. and deserves to take her place, I’m converted kinda, still have my doubts about women jockeys chances in this race, mainly regarding hanging on in unavoidable situations, but rather her than slave driver AP! WHY risk putting him on, he wants to win this too much! he’ll get it taken off its feet!!!
Could be a mixed blessing if BC does well today AP may stick with him.
#1345
March 12th, 2009 16:50
Brody Says:
March 9th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
My fav bet of the festival so far:
EW double
Big Bucks 13/2 world hurdle
Imperial Commander 6/1 Ryanair
Hard to see either out of the first three home which would land a nice little touch and both have IMO very beatable short price favs worth taking on as the win pay out will be massive.
GET IN!!!!
Off to the bookies to take a serious amount of cash off of them and then the pub, happy days
#1346
March 12th, 2009 16:55
Nice one Brody – don’t forget to stop by Coral and take some 20s for Rambo on the way
#1347
March 12th, 2009 17:06
Way ahead of you on that one Pablo. Well done on your results yesterday btw.
#1348
March 12th, 2009 17:53
Listened to fulke walwyn/kim muir race on festival radio! Is Character Building the new number one in the GN pop punters chart? Has got all the trends now hasn’t it? Nuts. Haven’t got a penny on it yet! How did it look?
#1349
March 12th, 2009 17:56
Character Building won very easily … i guess that him got all his trends now and i would suggest he must be worth a punt now … 3rd in a henessy remember behind denman …
doesnt look good for butlers cabin …
#1350
March 12th, 2009 18:08
Yes, Silver, that Hennessey 3rd makes, I reckon, Character the classiest horse on the lowest weight. Placed over 32f, this win probable means he’s a few pounds well in now, just like the Rumbling Monster.
#1351
March 12th, 2009 18:16
Butlers only just edged out of 4th, which is what I thought he would need, so hope still there perhaps.
#1352
March 12th, 2009 18:20
Well what did we say…a good run from CB today and when we start the new LEAGUE next Weds, he will be the highest mover no doubt.
I don’t really like pushing my punts w/o time to do a full analysis like I do on GN, so for Chelts I keep them to myself.
However I am tickled pink – I topped up on CBs GN odds when he drifted out in case of a return to form today and today got him EW AND got Butlers EW too (got his 5th with Totesport
)
Good timing as today’s my Birthday
Yay!!!!!!!!!!!!! Don’t think he’ll win GN though…well, I don’t think so anyhow….lol!
#1353
March 12th, 2009 18:20
Butler’s not out of it but I still cannot bet on him @ 12/1
Should be a fascinating duel between Character Building & Rambling Minster
Had to take evasive action and provide healthy cover on CB and Garde Champetre
Rambo & State Of Play still biggest winners in my book
With Rambo still number one on my ratings (especially if weights rise and Black Apalachi carries too much)
#1354
March 12th, 2009 18:44
I’m with you Pablo…still Rumbler and SOP biggest hopes for me, though CB will appear in my Top 6 next week. I liken him a ltl to Darkness: v unpredictable, not the geatest jumper, brilliant in spits and spats – so you have to have enough of a decent bet on him anyway, in case it all comes 2getha on the Big Day.
But Rambling holds the Golden stamina and consistency key for me.
A 5th for BC is nice but IT’S NOT NEARLY ENOUGH – he’s not in the same league for me coming in as RM, SOP, CB, Darkness, BA etc – I hold COD in that same view as BC – not enough this year.
#1355
March 12th, 2009 18:52
Only Southern Vic and My Will to come realistically
Then we should have the picture of who’s in form
Hopefully then all the rest of the Gold Cuppers will do the honourable thing and withdraw asap next week to let us sort it all out so that we can have a few days off to check out the rest of the Aintree cards and get the Spring winners rolling…
Still waiting for those Midlands National prices – come on bookies I want to bet my cash on that good thing!!!
#1356
March 12th, 2009 19:04
Is Parsons due a run b4 GN? ..or is it gonna be another damp squib and withdrawal flop…
#1357
March 12th, 2009 19:05
Well you cant win them all can you.
Big Bucks turned over both KB and Pun. KB given a lazy, overconfident and poor run at the back (its Cheltenham for gods sake!)and could not match the speed of Pun and BB – the one thing KB should have had!! Given different tactics I think there would have been a different outcome – all credit to BB and Ruby Walsh though, a great win.
Lost 4pts today.
GN War Chest
Totals (at 1pt = £10)
Bet 1 + 9pts (£90)
Bet 2 + 1.8pts (£18)
Bet 3 + 2.23pts (£22.30)
Bet 4 + 2.13pts (£21.30)
Bet 5 – 4pts (-£40)
Profit: £111.60 for 1pt =£10 (and it would be more if you staked higher)or +11.16pts.
Dont blame me if I miss out on the Gold Cup tomorrow (a mine field) and try to find an easy winner for the last day somewhere else (will post later).
Note on Butlers Cabin.
Well he almost pulled of the RW at 28/1 (first 4)but came in 5th. A very resonable result but not as good as I had hoped (some on this site have stated he need a 1 to 5 so he got the 5th at least).
He showed he was coming into himself and is clearly getting fitter. It appears he is cleary aimed at just the one race the GN – lets hope its warmer and better ground. With more work at home BC still has a chance but no 1/2/3 at 25f or more – will now drop lower in my short list.
Will have another look at CB tonight and report.
#1358
March 12th, 2009 19:15
Think Madison du berlais ew is the best bet for gold cup. hammered denman and i reckon if kauto was running in that race it might have been a length between them. Granted mdb is up 4 pounds.
Don’t know much about racehorses but do know a bit about horses when i seen the video at nichols yard on racing post denman does not look the healthiest of horses. neptune did look the good but kauto to me looks in prime condition and will probably win. so mdb looks the least risk.
#1359
March 12th, 2009 19:17
Butler’s will come on for the run but Character Building likes good ground and a flat track too and will be 9lb better off at Aintree (or 11lb better off if weights rise by more than 1lb)
Plus CB travelled supremely well
He’s definitly beaten 143 RPR I would think – not up on RP site yet
But still a doubt about him putting it all together from the Elbow at Aintree – would not suprise me if something took him in the last 100 yards
…hopefully ridden by James Reveley!
#1360
March 12th, 2009 19:22
Before we all think of lumping on CB lets ponder this question.
When was the last time the GN winner also won at Cheltenam (I think soneone answered this a week or two ago so can we have the answer again please)? Its why I didnt want BC to win today.
Will look at the form tonight and report.
Oddschecker.com
BC 10/1 (!) to 14/1 (Lad)
CB 12/1 to 16/1 (Tote)
I’ve not got a penny on BC yet so need to make my mind up fast if I want that 16/1.
I agree with others that Rambo ans SOP look the stand out bets currently (but this is before I look at CB again).
#1361
March 12th, 2009 19:24
It should read:
“I’ve not got a penny on CB yet so need to make my mind up fast if I want that 16/1″.
#1362
March 12th, 2009 19:27
Systemdsman Says:
March 4th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
Butlers Cabin – does he have just the one entry next week? Its do or die for BC – without the 1/2/3 at 25f or more his profile is crap – with it its the best on offer. Whatever the race it will be worth a small EW bet – nothing to hide now.
Systemsman Says:
March 4th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
Daniel I stand by every word – i will live or die by the trends/profiles – he has to get a place. Time will tell but i really do want him to get that place.
Systemdsman Says:
March 4th, 2009 at 7:08 pm
OK I accept that if BC comes a good 4th he is not completley out of it (but i stand by the 1/2/3 profile) but when using trends/profiles for a short list we do have to have a cut of point (obviously in the week up to the GN its gets a bit easier)- if you dont have some rules your short list gets far too long and already my list has included up to 8/9 runners at one time or another.
Now last year there was no logic behind the blinkers issue. This year coming 1/2 or 3rd in a Chase over 25f or more shows that the horse is still in form and may also still improve rather than on the way down in form – now there is some logic in that is there not (also backed by trends)?
Don’t understand how you can still think he has a chance or how he can still be on your short list based on these comments?
I’m not saying you’re not right to do so, but we all said this to you at the time if u remember “what if he runs a good 4th/5th etc”. But you were so adamant at the time I don’t see how you can now talk reasonably optomistically about his run today?
I was actually quite impressed with BC today. Still absolutely no intention of backing him, espcially now he’s shortened :S, but he ran better than I expected. Thing is, I won’t be having any more on CB (got him at 70s few week ago) because hes run in a big race less than a month before National. Now ask yourself, who has had a harder race today? CB or BC? For me CB won that quite easily, never really under any pressure whereas BC pushed hard for a furlong or two at the end. If im not willing to have any more on CB as he’s had a tough race close to National then I certainly won’t be having anything on BC. Just another reason why BC won’t win the GN.
Perfect race for punters who don’t like him though. He stills fails on stats but because he ran well he’s actually shortened. Giving us such good value for our money on the potential winners.
Ells
1
#1363
March 12th, 2009 19:35
Posted that before the additional comments had been made. Yer its a stat but again common sense needs to be applied. I’d much rather be on a horse who ran an easy race like CB and won, than a horse who ran a harder race like BC and came 5th. If I was on BC I’d rather he cantered up like CB and won than going all out and come 5th, regardless of what the stats say.
With regards to CB’s run, he did clip a few fences earlier on. Agree with the fact that he’s a similar type of Darkness. Both capable of winning but whether they will or no who knows. Think I possibly still prefer Darkness cos of the proximity between CB’s win and the GN. Joe’s Edge anyone? However he did seem to have it particularly easy.
Wish I’d had more ew today. Quinn was so confident on his chances last week. 16s too big.
Ells
1
#1364
March 12th, 2009 19:50
I agree L:ough thouigh I think Darkness has more balls when push comes to shove – I see him as a more of a threat than CB.
I respect all who rate BC, but he had a MUCH better chance last year (when I was almost alone in tipping him).
I think though the stretching of stats should stop – just come out and say ‘he fails on stats, but I have a feeling he’ll do it. etc’.
STOP pretending he’s in on stats (HE’S NOT!!).
Today’s 5th which he was pushed to, would have been lovely in Jan or Feb, but to me is not good news for the 4m + GN coming in 3 weeks!
#1365
March 12th, 2009 19:55
butler’s cabin now favourite or joint favourite with everyone except Ladbrokes. Character Building’s price has tumbled but I didn’t like his run from off the pace (doesn’t suit the national) and his jumping was sometimes temperamental. This was a race too much I feel, he spent a lot winning it, so I am sticking my neck out and saying CB won’t win the national. Need to watch the race again but I was pleased with Butler’s jumping and he looked a horse coming back to form – the exchanges seem to agree. I am very pleased I was on him at 20s though because I won’t place anymore unless the going comes good at aintree. If that’s the case I would see 8/1 as a good price. Not confident but not unduly disheartened either.
#1366
March 12th, 2009 20:06
Seagram won the Ritz Club in 1991 and then won the GN and the last horse before him to do the double was in 1961….I cant remember the name of the horse, but I know he won the Kim Muir.
Butlers Cabin run today was good, but id still rather be with rambo, so ive just had yet another fiver at 19.00 or whatever he was on Betfair.
He, Butlers Cabin and State of Play are my only serious winners.
Systemsman. Stand by your word; Butlers Cabin cannot win the National. You said it. Stand by it
#1367
March 12th, 2009 20:10
BC’s is a false price in my opinion
Surely BC’s price is a few points lower because of connections rather than form over last two years
Whereas BA and RM have recent and decent Class 1 form – and in RM’s case is not from a top stable
And CB (also from a smaller stable) has beaten BC comfortably and will in all likelihood be 11 lb better off at Aintree
#1368
March 12th, 2009 20:22
I’d be interested to know if there’s anyone out there who’s still got BC on their list, who wasn’t tipping him last year.
If what you say is true Showlad about you being one of the only ones – then I ask those people.. what’s changed? People are clearly blinded by a horse who was running well until falling a long way from home last year? And that is all he has done. Had his first ok run all year today and must have taken something out of him. I honestly cannot believe that connections will be as hopeful this year as last year.
He’s short due to his weight and his race last year. Neither of which are reasons to tip him up.
I still think people are talking through their money and not their brains when it comes to BC and SV, I really really do.
Ells
1
#1369
March 12th, 2009 20:29
Totally agree Lough.
I have saver bets on both – that is my own call – but on stats, esp SV, NO WAY!!
#1370
March 12th, 2009 20:42
I HAVE BEEN ON BUTLERS CABIN SINCE LAST YEAR AND HAVE HAD EXCHANGES WITH WACKY AND SO BUT ENOUGH IS ENOUGH AND I NOW CONCEDE I WAS WRONG AND ALSO NOW FEEL B.C WILL NOT WIN THE G.N. HE HAD A VERY HARD RACE IN MY OPION FOR WHAT IS WORTH,AND WITH HIS OBVIOUS LACK OF FITNESS AND ONLY 3 WEEKS TO RECOVER,THERE WILL BE BETTER OPTIONS.
HAD £20 E/W @25′S AND WISH I COULD REINVEST IN RAMB.MIN,STATE OF PLAY AND GARDE.CHAMP.VERY BIG INTEREST IN THESE AND THAT WILL DO FOR ME,CANT SEE MUCH CHANGING NOW.
#1371
March 12th, 2009 20:45
Just to add something more into the mix regarding Butlers Cabin. It was running off its true rating today of 135. Come National day it will be running off 147. If it cant win today off 135 how will it win off 147? Also when it won the Irish National it won off 135.
With regards to CB it was carrying 11st 12 today whereas when Seagram won at Cheltenham it was only carrying 10st 11 and then wnt to Aintree and carried 10st 6 to victory. I know CB but I wont be backing it after its just won with 11st 12 on its back.
Finally with CB winning today it looks even better for RAMBO as it beat CB at Cheltenham in January and then again at Haydock.
#1372
March 12th, 2009 20:46
Parson’s news anyone?
Gosh he’s like one of the world’s bloody mysteries lol
Wrapped in a cloak of mystique
#1373
March 12th, 2009 20:48
sorry should have said ‘ I know CB looked good today but I wont be backing it after its just won with 11st 12 on its back’.
#1374
March 12th, 2009 21:07
On the other hand Dan, he glided today and 2 stone less could be just the tonic
#1375
March 12th, 2009 21:09
btw Crisp, I will keep you late after school in detention, if you don’t post up that table with Cornish’s correct score.
It will be 1000 lines of ‘Sticky back plastic has many uses’…
#1376
March 12th, 2009 21:09
Final day tips for Chelts chaps?
#1377
March 12th, 2009 21:13
btw Skybet paying 6 places on Country Hurdle…
#1378
March 12th, 2009 21:35
HI Showlad, you must have missed the post were somebody asked same question, Parson’s Legacy going straight to aintree with no further prep runs as he runs well fresh and was already assured of place in line up on weights day at pos no 40, hope this helps.
#1379
March 12th, 2009 22:06
Interesting comments throughout the blog about horses not being able to win from behind. Look where Numbersix/ Amberleigh were on the 1st circuit in their GN. It’s not impossible/totally uncommmon.
Val- I make it that Cornish Sett lost 4pts from peter the pig and 2pts from TC, should be on 30 not 24. Do I get a blue peter badge?
one for sorrow, two for joy ….
Daniel Edwards – strange, but if the last Cheltenham winner before Seagram was 1961 well that was the last grey to win!! Nicolaus Silver. And that was also in the Chinese year of the Ox!
That Cheltenham winning stat is big but I suppose not as big as the days since last run stat that State Of Play/Parsons have to overcome or the ‘FR’ thing. Well, we’ve got to weigh it all up.
Wacky, I know you don’t normally stock un- ‘plaiced’ but have you got ‘Cornish’ Pasties in your caff?
#1380
March 12th, 2009 22:19
I agree with the posts above that CB looked impressive and in my opinion just franks the form of Rambo, so he wont be taking any of my money.
Pablo Says:
‘Still waiting for those Midlands National prices – come on bookies I want to bet my cash on that good thing!!!’
Pablo when your on the good thing
could you post it up. I’m off to Uttoxer on Saturday for the meeting. Would love to know your thoughts.
#1381
March 12th, 2009 22:42
Always a minefield re GN, I reckon when looking too closely at form between two horses over much shorter distances. Character Building didn’t like ground at Haydock, less than three lengths between CB and RM at undulating Cheltenham over 26f. Both pulled up in 07 Scots Nat, that would’ve been interesting. I don’t think there will be much between them over Aintree’s flat 36f.
#1382
March 12th, 2009 22:50
Daniel Edwards
“Systemsman. Stand by your word; Butlers Cabin cannot win the National. You said it. Stand by it”
Having had time to reflect and think this is my view.
Danile no problem. For all to hear – “BC cannot now win the GN in 2009″. He has failed to get a 1/2/3 at 25f or more or even 24f this season. Yes he is getting fitter but I fear its too little too late. The profile is now all wrong.
He scores two stars in my “Black Book” ratings (he needs three for any good short list).
If he does win its not a problem for me as I have plenty on him.
I will deal with CB in detail later as this post is my second attempt the first disappearing of my screen.
Get on Rambo and SOP (if 11.01 or less)!
Am going to re review my short list again and will post results in a few days but BC will not be in the top 5!! Sorry BC fans but we do have to face cold facts and that time has arrived.
CB
For whats is worth I think at this stage CB is place material but not the winner. Does meet most trends but no Class 1 win (my “Black Book” rating is three stars – on short list). Meets Stephnes GN winners profile but not my GN pre Christmas profile (but has met the requirements now).
Would be interested to know what people think are ths runners week points before I get stuck into him at 16/1 if still available.
#1383
March 12th, 2009 23:16
Very dignified post Systems. About time somebody came out with real money on BC and admited the truth. Least you’ve all your cash on a current favourite. Can even lay out if needs be. He may well win, but I don’t see how he has anything like as good chance as last year, especially if the weights go up a lot. Nor do i see how either he or SV can be in anyone’s top 5 at this moment in time. Whether you have money on them or not.
Ells
1
#1384
March 12th, 2009 23:34
Fatspanner – I am interested in backing a horse in Midlands especially if >10/1 but it is only through analysis – don’t know any trainers or jockeys – so “good thing” is probably an overstatement – depends on ground
#1385
March 12th, 2009 23:59
Gold Cup tomorrow – now my mum wants the winner and I just dont know what to put her £5 on. She is 81 and likes to watch it on TV so give us some help out there everyone – whoes going to win?
A few thoughts.
Runners out of form dont win do they? Thats Denman out (or is he?).
Gold Cup winners dont win the title and lose it and come back to win again do they? Thats Kato Star out (or is he?)
So do we take three against the field?
Neptune Collonges (6/1 Tote, 7/1 Betfair)
Extic Dancer (9/1 WH)
Madison Du Berlais (10/1 Coral, 11/1 Betfair)
For a minimum profit of 4pts if NC wins (using High Street bookies that is)?
Come on my mun needs help and fast!
………………………………………
Last days bet:
Tommorrows recommmended bet:
Well its not the Gold Cup or Cheltenham. We are slipping over to Fakenham
14.55 Valley Ride 4 pts (£40) – no cover
Take the 5/9 available with Betfair now or an early price tomorrow (take 1/2 or better if you can get it, otherwise the best you can). Will update on price in the morning.
So on our last day it will either be + 7.16pts (£71.60) minimum profit or +11.16pts (£111.60)with the winnings from the race above.A winner at the end of the festival week whatever happens – cant be bad.
I know its not very adventerous and not for the “big risk, high rollers” but I like to invest and make small dividends with minimum risk (better than the banks!!).
#1386
March 13th, 2009 00:07
Well. What a day today has been. The Kim Muir was the race I had been waiting for all Cheltenham in terms of Grand National clues when I knew CB and BC were running in it. I have never shouted and cheered home a horse so loudly that I didn’t have money on in the race I was watching. CB cruised around the course with ease under a huge weight. Hardly broke sweat and won like a good horse.
My two ante post bets are now the two that fit the trends perfectly. I’m on at 25/1 on each of Character Buidling and Rambling Minster. Really pleased with that.
Here are my thoughts for what they are worth…
Stand Out Horses
RAMBLING MINSTER
Fits all trends. Low weight. Everyone must have this horse.
CHARACTER BUILDING
Fits all trends. Low weight. Maybe winning at Cheltenham not ideal before tackling the GN, but it has been done(Seagram). Should be very high on any shortlist.
Best Of The Rest
BUTLERS CABIN
Fits a lot of trends. Not ideally weighted though. No top 3 finish in any of last 3 races. Layed out for race however. Each Way value possibly gone now but could sneak a place. Not the winner for me.
GARDE CHAMPETRE
Fits a lot of trends. Low weight. No Class 1 place though. Remains to be seen if Cross Country form can be transfered to the GN. Did win well at Cheltenham. Stays all day and again, could sneak a place.
STATE OF PLAY
Fits lots of trends. Weighted to do well on his best form. Has to defy a long lay off trend though going back decades. Could run well, but again place claims for me.
Going back to the stat mentioned above in the Butler’s Cabin summary; I only have data going back to 1989 but every GN winner has had a top 3 finish in any of it’s last 3 runs. Another useful tool when narrowing down your selections.
I am very, very happy with my two bets on the GN at the moment as they are the stand out trend horses on low weights and in the ideal OR range. Bring on April 4th!!
#1387
March 13th, 2009 00:16
I’m on Madison du Berlais alllll the way babyyyy! I’m a huge huge fan of both Kauto Star and Denman. Last year before this race both were unbeatable. Something had to give. Kauto has ran well this season but even I will admit he is beatable now. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him get beat these days, whereas it would in the past (it pains me to say this). Obviously Denman has had his troubles and may get some of my money depending on his price.
However I don’t see why ED is going to reverse form with Kauto :S Why’s that going to happen. NC might but again I don’t see it. He isn’t as good as these yet. But Madison du Berlais is a totally different animal this season. Just like Snoopy Loopy and Black Apalachi for some reason this horse is just not the same. He won the Hennessy in very impressive style lugging around 11-4 and then absolutely destroyed the field in the Levy Board Chase.
As I’ve always said that race was as much about Madison bein great as it was about Denman being bad. Let’s not forget Denman was still in it few furlongs out. He beat his main rival Alberta’s Run (who is rated 165) by 25l. Madison du Berlais beat him by 58l and Denman by 23l. I don’t think the handicapper has any idea what rating this horse should currently be on. I personally feel that at this point in time he is in the high 170s, based on the two runs this season seen. This fully entitles him to run well against a beatable Denman and a not 100% Denman. I think he is without doubt the 1 who’s going to get em if they aren’t right (or maybe even if they are).
He may well run terribly, but purely based on his current level of form and the way he has run he is my number one selection for GC.
Ells
1
#1388
March 13th, 2009 00:20
*beatable Kauto and not 100% Denman..
Ells
1
#1389
March 13th, 2009 00:24
David Pipe couple of weeks ago:
“We’ve decided not to run him on Saturday, he goes straight to the Gold Cup now,” said Pipe.
“We want him to win the Gold Cup and to do that you have to be at the top of your game.
“To give the horse the best possible chance of winning the Gold Cup we thought, after speaking to the owners, that it was best to go straight there.
“Of course he’s surprised us this year, especially last time, but he keeps on improving and deserves to take his chance.
“It’s great that so early in my career I’ve got a horse good enough to have a realistic chance in the Gold Cup.
Ells
1
#1390
March 13th, 2009 01:49
Regarding Butler’s Cabin, I’m pretty sure that in the last 15 years no horse has won the National who hasn’t finished in the top 3 in either of their last 3 races. I didn’t check back any further as got distracted by Cheltenham but can do so if anyone thinks it would be useful.
Regarding tips for Cheltenham Day 4, Walkon and Neptunes Collonges are good things for me and, if you want an each way outsider you could do a lot worse than Sky Hall in the 2:05. Currently 23s on Betfair
#1391
March 13th, 2009 02:12
Two horses for me tomorrow – both at nice prices:
Sky Hall (14/1, County Hurdle) – Reasonably handicapped and 7 lb claimer will come in very handy – jockey has won on horse before – stable already had a winner at festival and horse has some solid form and was going well when falling in good race at Ascot
Faltering Fullback (20/1, Martin Pipe Conditioanl Jockey’s)- Some very good form for this race, longer trip will not be a problem as by Double Trigger (dam sire Ardross) and jockey says it needs 2m 4f so may well improve for it – possibly better right-handed but decent price
#1392
March 13th, 2009 02:25
…and in the treble with you know who
#1393
March 13th, 2009 10:01
Can anyone explain why CB is now shorter than Rambo? The main thing I took out of yesterday’s race was that it franked Rambo’s form given that he’s given CB a couple of beatings recently with a small swing in weights to come in the GN. CB hasn’t won at 4m plus which Rambo has. CB’s RPR yesterday was 147 (easily his best) while Rambo’s beaten that twice and matched it twice. CB’s never won on good ground. His win yesterday was ok, but what did he beat? It was a good weight carrying performance but that’s not an issue in the National as he’s quite nicely in. He was obviously right for this race and his prep may not be as focused on the GN as Rambo’s. I for one can’t find a reason why CB should turn round the form with Rambo.
Just 3 more weeks to go!
#1394
March 13th, 2009 10:29
Agree with you but price doesn’t necessarily reflect chance – which is great!!!
I see it like this – Rambo won a race on heavy ground at Haydock weeks ago, which will have slipped under the radar of many Cheltenham fans and goers, whereas CB performed at the festival in a higher profile but weaker race – also National only 3 weeks away so coming more into focus
CB should be in top 6 or 8 in betting based on the fact that he has at least shown some form recently – not many have
I think we on this site are all much more conscious of the National picture than the average punter who’s maybe more blinkered by Cheltenham – I cannot believe for instance that none of the so-called pundits has mentioned that CB’s performance yesterday has franked Rambo’s form considerably
That’s why part of every bet I have at the moment also goes on an accumulator with Rambo at 20/1
Win or lose at Aintree, 20/1 at this stage is incredible value in my opinion
#1395
March 13th, 2009 10:47
Both CB and Rambo are the stand out trend horses. Fact.
If you are on both at this stage you should be extremely pleased going into the National. Both of them are well in at the weights. Both are in cracking form.
I can see a ding dong battle up the elbow between them both. Well, I hope so anyway!
Going into last years race I had one horse, Comply Or Die, that was the big winner for me. I had savers on 3 others in the race. This year there are two stand out chances to get our teeth into. I’m happy if either wins.
What a race we have lined up! A few weeks ago the waters were looking very muddy. Now we finally might be reaching the clearing.
#1396
March 13th, 2009 11:12
Hi all
Have been following this blog for the past year and find it very interesting and informative – you all seem to be so knowledgeable. Keep up the good work. By the way Systemsman(and your Mum!) I have it on good authority that a fiver on either Barbers Shop or Air Force One would be a good bet for the Gold Cup. I don’t think it’s Nicholls day today. Or at least I hope not!
#1397
March 13th, 2009 11:18
Not a fact as I see it – CB has NOT won a Class 1 which has stood for as long as I can remember – certainly back to Mr Frisk in 1990
#1398
March 13th, 2009 11:20
Please, Please can we start a new thread!!
This is massive and when viewing on my mobile phone away from home it takes me 25 mins to scroll to the last post!!!!!
#1399
March 13th, 2009 11:54
FAO ADMIN
A new Grand National Tips thread at this stage probably would be a good idea.
We’ll be posting up our new GRAND NATIONAL LEAGUE TABLE posts from Weds 19th, so a new thread would be great to keep track of it all and a fresh start as we go into the final stage of analysis.
#1400
March 13th, 2009 12:09
Pablo Says:
March 13th, 2009 at 11:18 am
Not a fact as I see it – CB has NOT won a Class 1 which has stood for as long as I can remember – certainly back to Mr Frisk in 1990
I was under the impression that the stat was “Won a Class 1 or 2 Chase”. In which case he has this stat.
#1401
March 13th, 2009 12:25
Update and change in todays recommended bet.
Last day of festival and both my bets are not at Cheltenham!!
Advised:
Investment 1 Fakenham
14.55 Valley Ride 4 pts (£40) – no cover
Best price now is 2/5 (5/9 was available last night with Betfair which I suggested you take)- take the 2/5 or better tis morning.
Investment 2 (new) Lingfield
16.25 Park Lane 3pts (£30) at 4/5 Lad
Dalradian 1.4pt (£10 as full cover)at 2/1 Coral
some better net prices are available.
If Parl Lane wins (will do if managing 1 mile for fisrt time)return will be 1pt profit (£10)
#1402
March 13th, 2009 12:27
Should say:
Dalradian 1.4pt (£14 as almost full cover)at 2/1 Coral.
#1403
March 13th, 2009 12:35
Re CB, I thought the stat referring to C1 races is 9/10 have place in a C1 which CB has (in the Hennesy). Only just makes that stat but does meet it.
#1404
March 13th, 2009 12:40
No! The 20s has finally gone……
#1405
March 13th, 2009 12:41
I was two hours from dropping in at Corals a few miles away to mop up some of the 20s offered on Rambo…….and it’s just gone to 16s, chaps. Bet365 biggest now at 18s.
I was tempted to wrap up a double with Denman. Surely he’s two or three points too big for a horse of that class – even if he’d had a leg sawn off!!!
Coral have still got SOP at 33s. Denman and SOP would be a nice 200/1 double.
#1406
March 13th, 2009 12:42
Stephen Says:
March 13th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
I was under the impression that the stat was “Won a Class 1 or 2 Chase”. In which case he has this stat.
Agree to differ – there are lots of ‘stats’ and ‘trends’ flying around and there are different opinions on their merit I suppose
#1407
March 13th, 2009 12:43
The 20/1 has now gone on Rambo with Corals! Everyone on here must have hit them hard and they couldn’t hold out any longer.
I still maintain that the best two trend horses are Rambo and Character. Get on them if you haven’t already!
We should be cheering them home on April 4th
#1408
March 13th, 2009 13:54
I’m under the impression that the 33/35-23/23 stat is a ‘top3 in a C1 chase’, with a different stat being a win in a C2 chase or better, preferably worth 17k+.
#1409
March 13th, 2009 14:05
Lots of interesting points re Rambling v Character. Another thing to be wary of is ‘the what did CB beat at Cheltenham’ which is a fair point but would that be said here if Butlers had won?
#1410
March 13th, 2009 14:24
For me, the fact that BC in the mix at Cheltenham is a negative for CB. Given BC’s current form, CB had to win by further. The only reason Butler’s is jf is because he looked good before falling in last year’s race after a poor season and he meets the stats. So, for me, the ‘what did CB beat at Cheltenham’ is relevant. This is confirmed by the number of horses in contention jumping the last. As far as I’m concerned, his best performance was his third to Denman 16 months ago. According to his RPR and OR, CB’s Chelts performance doesn’t compare favourably to Rambo’s Haydock win and Rambo has longer to get over it. Also, I don’t see CB being quick enough to be close enough come the final fence to produce the late winning run he needs.
#1411
March 13th, 2009 14:48
The debate between the leading fancies will rumble on until one of them wins on April 4th. As stated above, CB and Rambo are now the leading two horses by some distance in my eyes. Rambo might just be shading it as the number one, but only just.
CB was quick enough to finish third to Denman so I don’t see that being a problem. Lest we forget in that Hennessy you had Snowy Morning(Fell; went on to claim 3rd in GN), Knowhere(5th; beat Exotic Dancer this season and in Gold Cup today), Madison Du Berlais(4th; beat Denman this year and in Gold Cup today). So it was a hot race.
He is also 7lbs better off in the National vs Rambo on their running at Cheltenham for a 2 and 3/4 length defeat. This was on Good/Soft ground and would have suited them both as opposed to the bog at Haydock.
So when you look at it there really isn’t much between them I think. They both have excellent claims and should be thereabouts on the day. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and can bet on who they like. But I happy to be on both of these chasers going into the National.
#1412
March 13th, 2009 14:56
Well said, Stephen. And fingers crossed the old ‘winners profile’ is looking strong.
#1413
March 13th, 2009 15:57
Haven’t had a bet but think Hennessey form might hold up with Madison Du Bulldozer and Air Force One running well.
#1414
March 13th, 2009 17:00
Great GC. Kauto was majestic, but great to see Denmans improvement, next year could be the REAL close one! thought My Will ran well there, come in to a ridiculous price of 12s!? except with Lads who have cut Rambo in to 14s!!!
#1415
March 13th, 2009 17:13
My Will stayed on well but was catching some tired horses. 14s is plenty short enough and that must have taken a lot out of him to then run 4 1/2m 3 weeks later carrying 11-4? I don’t think so. Also, Bet365 clipped to make 16s the best price available. I think I’m done now for Rambo.
#1416
March 13th, 2009 17:24
Most firms have shortened up Exotic Dancer
Does this mean Jonjo might go for Aintree? And therefore the weights will remain the same?
If so My Will would have a squeak – Nicholls sounded quite happy with him – not saying I’d back My Will though
But if Exotic Runs then State Of Play looks strong
#1417
March 13th, 2009 17:32
i don’t think it does mean that Exotic dancer will run……the pattern this year seems to be that any national entry that gets in the 1st 4 gets it’s odds cut, there was a time that odds were dictated by money placed, not so these days.
#1418
March 13th, 2009 17:37
Sure, if Exotic Dance runs, My Will would have a great chance as would State of Play but surely he won’t after fading up the hill in the GC? They can’t fancy his chances with top weight can they??? He must be too good a horse to risk for so little chance of reward.
#1419
March 13th, 2009 17:48
puzzled Says:
March 13th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
i don’t think it does mean that Exotic dancer will run……the pattern this year seems to be that any national entry that gets in the 1st 4 gets it’s odds cut, there was a time that odds were dictated by money placed, not so these days.
…it’s called Betfair, Puzzled! But agree it doesn’t mean he’ll run
#1420
March 13th, 2009 18:29
no hill at aintree! but seriously all in that GC weighted above cloudy lane, are surely destined to pull out now!? Only stayer looked like My Will and if all above cloudy pull out he can’t win with 11-04. market is full of cheltenham and general fans moving onto next big thing… GN! almost all that have run this week however hard have come in!?! I liked Gardes easy run/win, but not too excited by CB, although I think he had an easy win, don’t fancy it.
#1421
March 13th, 2009 18:31
Rambo on!
#1422
March 13th, 2009 18:36
Looked on C4 text and Jonjo wants to run Exotic Dancer!
#1423
March 13th, 2009 18:42
jonjo confirms exotic will prob be going to aintree .. the plot thickens further
#1424
March 13th, 2009 18:45
Have a look at this…
Jonjo O’Neill is now eyeing a crack at the John Smith’s Grand National with Exotic Dancer, although he would have to shoulder 11st 10lb at Aintree.
O’Neill said: “I think we should run him in the National as it may well suit him.
“Touch wood, he would jump and travel well round there and as he likes passing horses, that would also favour him and I think we are well-in.”
#1425
March 13th, 2009 18:46
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO,
we had this so sewn up!
#1426
March 13th, 2009 18:46
Todays results at the end of the festival:
A winning day.
Advised:
Investment 1 Fakenham
14.55 Valley Ride 4 pts (£40) Won.
4/9 available at Lad all morning.(5/9 was available last night with Betfair which I suggested you take.
Profit (at 4/9)1.77pts (£17.77)
Investment 2 (new) Lingfield
16.25 Park Lane 3pts (£30)- LOST (-3pts)
Dalradian 1.4pt (£10 as full cover)at 2/1 Coral. WON +2.8pts (£28) – 3pts (£30) = – .2 (£2)
GN War Chest
Totals (at 1pt = £10)
Bet 1 + 9pts (£90)
Bet 2 + 1.8pts (£18)
Bet 3 + 2.23pts (£22.30)
Bet 4 + 2.13pts (£21.30)
Bet 5 – 4pts (-£40)
Bet 6 + 1.77pts (£17.77)
Bet 7 – .2pts (£2)
Profit 12.73pts or £127.37p (based on 1pt +£10)
Well I’am happy with that, only one losing day and £127.37 added to the GN War Chest (at only 1pt =£10). Every bet posted live for all to see.
Hope you enjoyed it as smuch as me.
#1427
March 13th, 2009 18:47
so anything from war of attrition downwards needs to be respected
#1428
March 13th, 2009 18:50
yep, mon mome down was a far easier prospect
#1429
March 13th, 2009 18:53
ahhh – this will be the grand national to remember , more twists and turns than an inspector morse thriller…he he…
#1430
March 13th, 2009 19:00
Exotic Dancer or not the trends will stand except that SOP would also be in with a big, big chance with his class and speed.
Will be having a 1/3 saver bet of CB (just like Darkness) but I really think a few people have talked up this horse. Only ever won a Class 2 this week and a Cheltenham winner does not win the GN unless you go back a long, long way.
Was also not in my pre-christams GN winners trends (see my post dated 17th December)which all the last ten winners had met by Christmas in their winning year(even if he meets them now).
No its still Ramboooooooooooo for me.Bring it on!
Will feed back more on CB later.
#1431
March 13th, 2009 19:21
Well if Exotic does run I think Snowy Morning has a huge chance on good ground
His performance behind Neptune Collonges at Punchestown last April (on NC’s best track and trip) is for me better than My Will’s staying on past beaten horses today – NC does not really get on with Cheltenham, it’s his class that pulls him through
I have Rambo and State Of Play as big winners but if Exotic lines up I’m getting stuck into Snowy big time
This horse on good ground is just short of top class and came third last year as an 8 year old
Trained by W Mullins who nurutured a good deal of improvement from Hedgehunter from 8 to 9 – I think Snowy off 11’0 is the one they all have to beat
#1432
March 13th, 2009 19:47
Systems, I don’t think anybody is talking up Character Building just stating that he does fit the trends that a lot of people follow. Appears to be a lot of negativity and I can’t understand why. If someone is sure he won’t win then they shouldn’t bet on it. I’m sure we’re all able to make up our own minds. I’ve chosen not to bet on Butlers or Hear The Echo despite a lot of talking up. If I’m wrong so be it.
#1433
March 13th, 2009 20:03
O for gods sake this is terrible news. I really hope connections decide against it. Had my shortlist sorted and then this happens. Opens up like another 3-4 horses now this. Grrrr, cmon Jonjo – see sense.
With regards to Snowy Morning. Personally I don’t see it. Even if he runs of 1lb lower than last year, hes running off a rating 11lb higher than last year. Even though his OR is identical. He was beaten 17l by BA last time out and is only claiming 2lb back for that in the GN.
Both Black Apalachi and Miko De Beauchene are the major two that come back into it. Not sure Miko will run now after fall. And I still think BA might needs softer ground. But he confirmed his Bechers when landing the BobbyJo and comes back into contention.
I still think the leading contenders are going to be the same, but it means we have more horses that ‘can’ win it, based on our trends, which really winds me up lol. Was all going swimmingly. Ah well, might not be laying out on SOP come race day now.
Ells
1
#1434
March 13th, 2009 20:16
Hang on a second there Lough
Snowy was beaten by BA on BA’s ground
Yes his rating has gone up by 11lb but his RPR has gone up by 10lb – this horse has IMPROVED over the year and we know he stays just about every yard of the trip
Something Butler’s, COD and a host of others patently haven’t
#1435
March 13th, 2009 20:32
so lets look at it like this…….
Exoctic dancer makes the line up with top weight, other horses that would not have lined up decide to take their chance as they are now racing off a nice weight.
Is their a possibility that Rambo,Garde or Character might not even make the cut?
#1436
March 13th, 2009 20:44
All of a sudden this becomes a more intriguing race and the following horses now come into the mix and warrant the maximum respect
war of attrition – 1st gold cup
snowy morning 3rd in national
knowhere 5th in hennessy
black apalachi won becher
hear the echo – won irish national
my will – 5th hennessy
miko de beauchene 1st welsh national
I guess everybodys been banking on the weights going up but all of these fellows possess class and may have been prematurely dismissed . given that the or of the top weight could be 166 this year there is every possibility that the winning OR may also be as much as 11lbs higher than usual .. i think some extra homework could be in order
hear the echo is entered in a chase on the 17th march at down royal
#1437
March 13th, 2009 20:52
Rambo is about 50th at the moment – would be a disaster if he didn’t get in but at least 10 should come out – I hope!
Has anyone looked at the Midlands National tomorrow?
Best way of getting the winner is to follow Valuescope in the Mirror – tipped winner last 5 years
Prices out now
I wanted 10/1 on Hold The Pin but only 8s available
Think he’s a good thing if he gets round
Savers on Companero, 14/1 (could be anything and is bred for 4m+) and Sea Diva 20/1 (stays all day)
#1438
March 13th, 2009 21:01
I really can’t see the owners letting Exotic go in the national with no realistic chance of it winning. There will be other opportunities at Aintree for them to pick up more prize money.
#1439
March 13th, 2009 21:02
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO puzzled,
my head really wrong now :S
Rambo must run!!!!!!!!!!! (&Garde)
this is a real nightmare on friday 13th scenario,
I’m not exaggerating here, I am also deliriously ill today too.. 1st illness all winter!
I’m not sure Snowy has improved this year Pablo, thought he likes a bit of soft too, also fallen 3 times now, is that not a no-no no?
Like I said before tho, if theres a snow shower passing on the big day again, I may fancy him as I’m partial to a bit of snow :S
#1440
March 13th, 2009 21:12
Fair point but I still severely doubt he has improved enough to overcome an 11lb increase and then some in order to make up those two places he failed to make last year.
Would agree with BC but I have to say I do agree that COD was purposely not given his blinkers until AFTER the weights. He clearly is a different horse without them, and was running and jumping impressively until being outpaced over inadequate trip.
If ED does stay in SM is only 4lb better off against COD than he was last year.
Gotta be honest COD has a real chance of doing a Red Rum if weights do stay the same. Still below 11st and excellent winner last year.
Ells
1
#1441
March 13th, 2009 21:53
ok. so Rambo 50th.ish at mo, could be ok.
Hope Exotic and others come out, but I can see why they are interested… anyway someone ends up having to carry topweight.
Glad someone prepared to even speak of COD, Think he has a bit to overcome in terms of fitness because I do think he’s been genuinely a bit poorly. Obviously he was cheekily raced to get a lower weight, and then had a disrupted time since. Had quite a hard race this week but did well enough, having said that I prefered stablemate Well Chiefs comeback run by a long way. Don’t think COD as good as last year, it is a bit of an unknowable til the day I think.
Did this race take too much out of him as too close to the national? if exotic in, COD still has a chance, along with a few others and more of a chance than BC CB SV dare I say and even more than Parsons Leg or Simon par example.
#1442
March 13th, 2009 22:22
Character Building
Positives:
OR 140 (perfect)
Weight 9.12 + 5lb would make 10.03 (good but a bit on the light side by a few pounds).
TS best 130 – OK
RPR best 147 – OK
Won Class2 26f 36k Chase this week.
3rd in Henessay 2007
3 wins from 11 runs (on the short side but OK)
% placed 7/11 – very good
Aged 9 – very good
Price – very good now (re trends).
Meets most trends for GN winner
Negatives:
Only one Class 2 win to its name (no Class 1 or second win at Class 2) – not good.
Other than this week best RPR was 143
Won at Cheltenham three weeks prior to GN. You have to go back a long way to find a Chelt winner who won the GN – very bad (may be tired or peeked too early?).
Not won over 26f – OK but 27f or more would be reassuring.
Fails to meet the pre-christmas GN winners trends (10/10 trend)but does meet them now.
Conclusion:
Assuming Exotic Dancer does not run for the moment this horse does fit almost all the GN winning trends (at the last moment) but, but does not feel quite right. He comes too much towards the bottom end of the positive trends required (place material?).
The one Class 2 win and only this week is a major weekness, and for this reason I do not see CB winning the GN but a good saver bet is advised as it cannot be discounted.
Meets Stephens GN winners profile
My “Black Book” raing *** (short list material)
Does not fit the Pre-chritmas GN winners profile (but has met the requirements now)
Still he looks a lot better trends wise than poor old BC who cant win now.
Only reinforces Rambo as the stand out trends horse.
#1443
March 13th, 2009 23:43
I hope Exotic Dancer doesn’t run. Seems a pointless idea to me. Will never win off top weight anyway. Forget it Jonjo, you have no chance.
#1444
March 13th, 2009 23:54
I have got to say, i was well pleased with my wills performance today.If exotic dancer was to run, we are talking 10st 10lbs to carry and if any horse is going to blow the trends out of the water, its this classy horse. Rambo is still my main horse but you have been warned.
#1445
March 14th, 2009 08:48
Midlands National tips from Value Scope in Mirror (winner last 5 years)
Kilcrea Asla
Operation Houdini
#1446
March 14th, 2009 09:50
Does anyone know what the highest rated horse is to have run in the national and what is the highest rated horse to have won i assume it is probably hedgehunter.
Just asking because previously runners in the national have not been classified as ‘classy’ and if Exotic Dancer who is a different class to most and run very close to denamn yesterday. He could go very well and could be afforded the extra weight. Or maybe i’m talking waffle
Exotic is also entered in the betfred gold cup on 25th apr thats just 21days after the national so would depend on jonjo priority he could hardly do both.
Comments from yesterdays race-
He made several mistakes, but no serious ones, and it was interesting to hear afterwards that connections are giving the Grand National serious consideration. However, he has top-weight, so modern history would be very much against him, and if he is ridden as he usually is there would be an obvious danger of getting interfered with or brought down. There is also no guarantee at all that he would stay.
He jumps well, travels well and loves passing horses, so we’d have to have a serious look at it [the Grand National]. He’d have top weight, but we’re still well-in. He has come up against two very good horses today. We’re very lucky to have him, as he’s a great horse in his own right – Jonjo O’Neill, trainer; he’s run a very, very good race and everything has gone right, there are no excuses. We’re thrilled with his performance. We certainly have to talk about the National. We’ll see how he comes out of this, but a steady pace and lobbing along like he does could suit him at Aintree – Barry Simpson, racing manager.
Next there was an asumption that snowy would probably be top weight that meant 11 dropping out, rambo and cb would def get in. not if exotic stays in those horses under hime could stay in as they’d have a better weight, so is there a possibility that rambo and cb wouldn’t get in.
Now i think i’m rambling and should go back to bed.
#1447
March 14th, 2009 10:55
Guys (and gals!)
++++PLEASE NOTE++++++
We will be opening a new thread later today/tomorrow due to this thread becoming a bit too big again so please be thinking about bringing your post Cheltenham thoughts together to begin the new thread.
In future we will try and keep thread lengths to a maximum of 500-600 entries to allow everyone easy access to the wonderful information!
Thanks a lot
#1448
March 14th, 2009 11:35
Difficult to say what will not run because owners like to have a runner in the National – and who can blame them?
Think Rambo needs 7 to come out given his revised OR (not revised National weight)
3 who look very unlikely to run:
Monkerhostin – doubtful, 300 on Betfair
One Cool Cookie – doutbful according to trainer, over 400 on Betfair
L’Antartique – hopelessly out-of-form, 1000 on Betfair
Plus question marks about at least four or five others plus there will be at least one or two that come out atfer exertions at Cheltenham
So I would say that Rambo is almost certain to line up and that also Character Building has a very good chance even if Exotic turns up
Also has Pipe ruled out Madison Du Berlais? Horse hates Cheltenham so you can ignore yesterday’s run and National was the plan before the Denman race at Kempton
#1449
March 14th, 2009 12:16
just been on atr “My will” by no means a cert to line up at aintree
#1450
March 14th, 2009 12:18
and in midlands national kilcrea asla also tipped by venitia williams …… if her horses don’t win that is.
#1451
March 14th, 2009 12:36
Many thanks to all who have contributed to finding this years GN winner, it has been realy enjoyable reading all the info. I couldn’t sleep last night so decided to have a look at the Midlands Grand National stats.
7,8 0r 9 year old
won over at least 24f
Below 11st
14 or below
Must have won in last 3 runs
Won on soft or heavy
Two qualifiers:-
Russian Trigger 12/1
Appleaday 14/1 Worth an interest at these prices
#1452
March 14th, 2009 12:50
Statement from Nicholls himself-looking forward to next months national with MY WILL who ran a massive race. That will have put him spot on for the natiional, he ran a blinder. He seems fine this morning.
#1453
March 14th, 2009 13:19
isn’t my will french !!!!!!
#1454
March 14th, 2009 13:30
mais oui!
#1455
March 14th, 2009 13:30
“johnny a Says:
March 14th, 2009 at 9:50 am
Just asking because previously runners in the national have not been classified as ‘classy’ and if Exotic Dancer who is a different class to most and run very close to denamn yesterday. He could go very well and could be afforded the extra weight. Or maybe i’m talking waffle”
Reply:
Sorry Johnny but i remember Master Oats winning the Gold Cup (a great winner) and still could not win the GN – so if Gold Cup winners cannot win the GN (in recent years anyway) Exotic Dancer will not and cannot!
Since 1960 the higest weight carried by the GN winner was 11.05 by Gay Tip in 1970 and ofcourse the one and only Red Rum on 12.00 in 1974 (but that was a one off for sure).
Since 1984 (24 years!!)the highest winners weight was 11.01 in 2005 by Hedgehunter.
So we rally do need to look at 11.01 and below dont we?
Cross out anything that carries 11.03 or more (11.02 allows a small change in trends by 1lb).
For me i will be looking for the winner with 11.00 or less.
#1456
March 14th, 2009 13:38
“alanham Says:
March 14th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
Statement from Nicholls himself-looking forward to next months national with MY WILL who ran a massive race. That will have put him spot on for the natiional, he ran a blinder. He seems fine this morning”.
Reply:
Wont he be just a wee bit tired?
My Will
Or 152 weight 10.10 (possible), + 5lbs + 11.01 (at the maximun of what may be possible, only achieved once in last 24 years), + 8lbs = 11.04 (cant win)
For me too much weight and a hard run too close to the GN – wont be getting my money.
#1457
March 14th, 2009 14:05
As far as I can see the only negatives with MY WILL are:
Only 2 runs this season
Raced at Cheltenham 22 days before National
Yesterday’s write-up about his race – “In rear, some headway and hit 16th, staying on again when not fluent 4 out, kept on from 2 out but never in contention” – has fallen at Aintree before
Plus a slight doubt him seeing out the trip properly – had 2 chances on good ground over 30f and didn’t stick his head in front against other French Breds and against no stand-out stayers on pedigree – in the National he will be racing against stouter-bred horses related to previous National winners
Put all these negatives together and this doesn’t scream “back me!” at 14/1
#1458
March 14th, 2009 14:16
Systems, good comments. Come on, stiff upper lips in the trenches. I say, let them all run!! Rumbling Monster runs off featherweight 10-1 rather than, say, 10-6/10-9.I’m also looking forward to Hennessey winner State of Play on 10-8, Welsh GN 2nd Cornish Sett on 10-2 and Character Building on 10-0(hope he gets in!)
#1459
March 14th, 2009 14:59
MY WILL is related to two previous national winners,HALLO DANDY and RHYME’N’ REASON so am hopeful he will appreciate the trip,was staying on in the GC.The two races over 30f was actually on good to firm ground which is unsuitable for this horse so he did well to run as he did.I really think he,s good for a top 4 place,admit odds are getting a bit short now but am already on at 33s, 25s and 16s. Who do reckon ruby walsh is going to ride?- MY WILL?
#1460
March 14th, 2009 15:21
alanham – think you have some dodgy information relating to the breeding of My Will – have looked and cannot find any similarities with Hallo Dandy or Rhyme’N Reason in last 3 generations
try http://www.pedigreequery.com
#1461
March 14th, 2009 15:31
mon mome is running in the midlands GN! I’m quite suprised by that, thought his best chance was this year in THE GN, I know what your saying ‘had his chance, FR!’ but..good form, preps, right age, not saying he would win but in this he has top weight!? obviously they don’t think he can win GN, why even turn up now!!!
#1462
March 14th, 2009 15:37
Read this from a quote from the trainer in the racing post.Just look for the quotes under MY WILL name. Will be gutted if this is untrue. Good research Pablo.
#1463
March 14th, 2009 15:38
Of My Will and Exotic, My Will a defo consideration for me – but no GC runners etc will get any of my money until ABSOLUTELY confirmed. Would rather bet on 1 confirmed runner than ALL of 4 or 5 rumoured that drop out.
I agree with Crisp tough – it’s vigilance in the trenches, stiff upper lips and business as usual!!
Any DEFINITE runs from the GC crowd can be assessed NEARER the time.
Tally Ho!!
#1464
March 14th, 2009 15:41
brooklyn brownie running wetherby 1455, haven’t really watched him run with GN in mind, so will be interesting and needs the run, gave it a point in our top6 table, Aintree experience and related to Papillon.
#1465
March 14th, 2009 15:41
Big Wins for me on CB and American Trilogy at Chelts.
Giddam Giddam and Russian Trigger good EW at Midlands Nat (now that I’ve posted the tip up it will probably be the Kiss of Death lol!).
#1466
March 14th, 2009 16:03
alanham – it’s there in black and white on RP site but think he must have got it wrong
of course doesn’t mean he can’t stay and win the race
#1467
March 14th, 2009 16:11
er.. missed that, Brooklyn Brownie won! anyone see it
I wanted to see him staying on strongly as trip a worry
#1468
March 14th, 2009 16:25
Hope you got in on that tip guys
Go Russian Trigger!
#1469
March 14th, 2009 16:42
Brooklyn giving up to 1 and half stone to win in small field.
Nice boost of a run for GN though.
Tipped a little in table, maybe he’ll be one of the risers in the new table starting Wednesday
Will have same weight as CB in Nat – if both get in – still should tho..
#1470
March 14th, 2009 17:04
Nice one Showlad – I was on Hold The Pin and Sea Diva (got paid for both places even though 15 runners) so made a profit
Really fancied Hold The Pin but got done fair and square
Flintoff the one to take from the race for me because he has the key race form (3rd in Scottish National), has won over 3 miles, was rated 136 today (gave 12lb to the winner), and has a best RPR of 146 (before today)
Hopefully trainer will find him a small Class 1 race to win in the Autumn and give him a prep or two over hurdles and a chase after weights day and then it’s all systems go for the National 2010
You heard it here first!!!
#1471
March 14th, 2009 17:06
RE: Brooklyn brownie…..do the racing post know something we don’t, re his future race plans? why topham rather than National?
A depleted field because of the drying ground. BROOKLYN BROWNIE looked in tremendous nick on his first outing since finishing runner-up in the Grand Sefton in November. Conceding upwards of 16lb, he was given a confident ride. Travelling strongly, his rider allowed Rare Society to kick clear four out. Making the most of that horse’s blunder two out, he quickly reeled him in on the run-in and scored in cosy fashion. The Topham looks a tempting option.
#1472
March 14th, 2009 17:08
Southern vic finishes in 3rd place at Nass looked a hard race for him.
#1473
March 14th, 2009 17:11
opps…..Naas rather
#1474
March 14th, 2009 17:28
Really isn’t good enough Puzzled is it?
He’s struggled since 2006 to do ANYTHING AT ALL of note
#1475
March 14th, 2009 17:56
I thought southern vic did ok there giving weight to two useful sorts . his jumping was spot on and he stayed on well once headed and finished in front of both chelsea harbour and preists leap who hell get lumps of weight from in the nat . i wouldnt have said that was earth shattering but still cant be fully ruled out and will think hes been let loose with 10-1 in the nat . still a sporting outsider… got some money to spend on the nat today after russian triggers win at uttoxeter! … excellent gutsy performance and one to watch for ayr in the scot nat…
#1476
March 14th, 2009 18:11
well done ballybriggan – a victor dartnall double on the day … ! ..
#1477
March 14th, 2009 18:12
Can’t stand the tension. I wish the trainers would just delare 10 non runners and get RM in this race.
Some of these horses that have run in the last week can’t have anything to gain or any chance in the National. Does jonjo really want to let a horse like exotic dancer carry top weight round aintree when theres better chances of winning money.
Someone please make him see sense !!!!!
#1478
March 14th, 2009 18:30
was SV blinkered? seen a b1 next to his name and makes sense as analysis said ‘jumped well’ sounds a good run, but like many is it too much too late?
#1479
March 14th, 2009 19:06
sv was blinkered and didnt put a foot wrong .. he had to do all the donkey work himself and was a sitting duck for emma jane .. stayed on well enough without getting an overly hard race.. as i already mentioned not earth shattering .. more satisfactory but still some questions marks methinks…
#1480
March 14th, 2009 20:03
Sothern Vic – no hope now – we can stop hoping its not going to happen!!
Brooklyn brownie – I watched the whole race. Lucky win due to mistake of the front runner – adds very little to what we know.
Crisp “I say, let them all run!! Rumbling Monster runs off featherweight 10-1 rather than, say, 10-6/10-9.I’m also looking forward to Hennessey winner State of Play on 10-8, Welsh GN 2nd Cornish Sett on 10-2 and Character Building on 10-0(hope he gets in!)”
I think we are now in complete agreemnet – greatlist (I only have doubs about CS who I will check agin tonight)
#1481
March 14th, 2009 20:04
Pablo, you stole my thunder re; Flintoff. I think he’s had a few problems, could have a fantastic chance in 2010. Half hope that he doesn’t get in this year. Another shot at Scots Nat, 3rd last year, would be good.
#1482
March 15th, 2009 08:48
I have followed this blog for last 2 weeks and as a result have placed £200 on Rambling Minister at 20/1 to win, my other bets are £100 e/w on comply or die at 20/1 and £100 e/w on king johns castle at 28/1. If Rambling Minister wins then many thanks to you all. The grand national as been very kind to me and have picked 5 of the last 10 winners being at present £6,000 in profit from the race. My question is despite your obvious bias for Rambling Minister and i have bought the hype, i cannot understand how Comply or Die can be so easily dismissed. He is the right age,as the experiance, seems to be carring a good weight for a previous winner and jumped superbly at cheltnam despite slowing at finish. Does anyone seriously believe the jockey was instructed to push horse to its limits on the run in so close to the national
#1483
March 15th, 2009 11:34
1, FLINTOFF may be one for the future, yes, but he’s still got a lot of boxes to tick and a couple of good races to win over the next year to be seriously considered for Aintree 2010.
It will be interesting to get 2009 out of the way and then throw forward a few fresh names for 2010. I’ve a minilist underway which I’m sure people could blow to pieces!!
2, On another front, the more I look at BUTLER’S CABIN the further he slips down the pecking order.
Was he just a ‘one season wonder’ who got lucky in a bunch finish at Fairyhouse? Would we be considering him if he’d finished a few lengths down the field in the 2007 Irish National? I think six lengths covered the first seven.
I had considered a saver bet on him (purely based on his Irish win and Cheltenham run beforehand) but no longer. I have also looked again at his 2008 GN run and my only conclusion is that he was among at least a dozen going OK when he took a tame tumble on landing at Becher’s over a mile from home when, as we all know, the real race begins.
I would be very anxious if I had cash on him at anything under 20s this year. He could still sneak into the frame at tight odds in my opinion….but is there any value in that?
#1484
March 15th, 2009 12:51
Hi All.
Couldn’t get on this thread for hours…can now, so thanks Admin
Well weekend after Chelts…the dust settles.
Anyone with an in depth on class horses that MAY run would be handy, so we have our thoughts in order in case they do run lol.
My analysis on the GRAND NATIONAL TIP LEAGUE will be posted soon ahead of us starting afresh on Wednesday 19th.
Re class horses that may…I don’t think Exotic shows any sign/experience of getting trip and certainly not with 11′ 10″ lumped on his back. My Will could be real danger though.
A Systemsman or the like examination of the class horses who may run (lol) would be appreciated, so we can get our house in order.
#1485
March 15th, 2009 12:54
Rambling Minster v Character Building
So far these are my two main fancies for the GN, but i am still favouring Rambo by a long way, especially after rambo has beaten CB twice already this season, they both carried same weight at Haydock on heavy ground and Rambo came out with a very impressive performance with CB 106 lengths behind. I do think CB performance on Thursday was good but i wasn’t that impressed by his jumping and he didn’t have a great deal of competition i thought, i do feel Butler’s cabin performance was ok, but think the GN will come too soon for him and he needs another run, cause as i said the competition was not great – with a lot of C3 horses. However i was glad to see Comply or Die put in a good performance with the blinkers on.
Just wondering what people’s opinions of Knowhere are as he has been racing in high class company for some time, i know he has fallen twice in the GN already, but he carried top weight last year and he is a classy horse, but there would obviously be question marks of him running 4m 4f
Looking at contenders for the future of GN , i reccomend you take a look at willie Mullins 7yo ARBOR SUPREME, who has already been racing in high class company and beating the likes of Chelsea Harbour and Black Apalachi over long distances
#1486
March 15th, 2009 13:46
Well now that the Cheltenham dust has settled and maybe only one more race involving Hear the Echo before we have the full picture , im becoming more and more convinced that the race lies between the 8 below . its also very consistent with the winner predictor tool that admin has now updated to cover the cheltenham results as well.(txs admin) this is a really useful tool -well worth using as a check and balance
Black Apalachi
Character Building
Rambling Minster
Garde Champetre
Darkness
Southern Vic
State of Play
Butlers Cabin
We could argue on the virtues and weaknesses of all of
them but ive loaded up on all of them and will now sit back in my armchair with my havana cigar , glass of brandy and smoking jacket and watch events unfold whilst smithers is out exercising the hounds …
#1487
March 15th, 2009 13:56
NEW THREAD STARTED
GRAND NATIONAL TIPS – MAIN THREAD
#1488
March 15th, 2009 14:12
CORRECTION NEW THREAD STARTED
GRAND NATIONAL TIPS – BEST BETS
#1489
March 15th, 2009 14:16
Hi everyone,
Aplogies to those of you who have had problems accessing this thread today – this further underlines the need to bring this thread to a close.
Thanks again for all your hard work on this thread – the level of analysis is of the highest quality.
Please start using this new thread from now on – GRAND NATIONAL 2009 – BEST BETS
Thanks again
#1490
March 17th, 2009 19:37
Re Character Building getting in to the National, I don’t think the ORs for Cheltenham have been updated as CB is still quoted at 139. I would guess this will happen any day now as there’s a story on the RP site that Kauto is the highest rated horse in the country ahead of Master Minded. I’d guess when this is done, CB will be first in line of the 9-12 brigade thus needing 2 to withdraw.
#1491
March 24th, 2009 18:15
hey peeps, the horse i fancy to run a good race is “hear the echo”, on the basis that he won the irish national last year and comply or die won a simalar race before he went to the national also i would have to have a few quid on the paul nicholls traoined horse “my will” hes had this race in mind for the horse for a while now so they must fancy there chances to take on the GN
but with the pattern that has been following heres my 1-2-3-4
1st – Hear the echo
2nd – My will
3rd- Butlers cabin
4th – black apalachi
all good prices at 10-1 or above, even though i did have the 1-3-4 last year i wouldnt fancy picking the winner this year as any 1 of about 10 can win so i might just short list a few i think have a chance and back the 10 i think
#1492
March 27th, 2009 16:05
on the mccoy thing cant find anyone taking bets on what he’s riding now …. im sure sky bet were but just ruby now??
#1493
March 30th, 2009 20:21
What do people make of the WOA withdrawal? Funny that until yesterday Mouse Morris has been banging on about WOA running and HTE missing out and now WOA doesn’t go. Coincidence or ramping?
#1494
March 31st, 2009 08:05
I’m finding it hard to keep up with all the posts now (and disagreements) and have to go to the big City Thursday (BKK, not LON) so am bowing out until next year. Thanks to Admin, Systems, Pablo, Stephen, Crisp, Showlad, KJ, Notellpa, Lough etc etc who I remember from the start and have made it a really enjoyable occasion this year. Rambo has actually made it difficult due to being the only real trends horse. I hope he backs up the stats. Good luck everybody.
#1495
August 28th, 2009 21:35
Of course in 1950 & the time of rummy the first circuit was about survival, these days the race begins in earnest from the off. Part of that reason is more stayers in the race. So to have the first four carrying eleven stone or more could be nothing but pure chance or it could be a sign that better staying horses are being entered.