Grand National 2009: Horses Unlikely To Run
A number of prominent horses in the betting for the 2009 Grand National have been nominated as scratchings or doubtful runners in the last twenty four hours.
John Spearing’s Simon has been scratched from the big race following a poor showing at Cheltenham and Welsh National winner Notre Pere has also been taken out of the race at Aintree following a setback.
Also, not taking the Grand National path are Ryanair Chase winner Imperial Commander and 2008 Welsh National Miko De Beauchene as both horses are going to take up alternative engagements
Imperial Commander does head for Aintree but will either run in the Melling Chase or the Betfair Bowl, whilst Miko De Beauchene is being geared to the Scottish National at Ayr.
Other horses whose participation is in doubt are Exotic Dancer and Roll Along.
Exotic Dancer may also head to the Betfair Bowl but connections of Roll Along are worried that he may need more time to recover from his exertions in the Gold Cup. He will, however, receive an entry when the updated field is announced on Tuesday.
Watch out for the updated field of Grand National runners – details on this site on Tuesday 24th March
This post has 51 comments
#1
March 18th, 2009 11:37
Any horse currently under 20/1 is not worth betting on till the day. The bookies have the market well set and most will go off at same or bigger odds. There will be a couple of springers (Ruby Walshes mount) but there is always value on the day. My personal choice is Garde Champetre as he may end up justifying the £500,000 price tag reportedly paid five odd years ago. I just hope he runs.
#2
March 18th, 2009 15:16
Looking for clues at what has been said I would have thought that Snoopy Loopy won’t run- which could in turn see Chelsea Harbour and Hear The Echo withdraw because of weight issues.
#3
March 18th, 2009 15:35
Let’s hope atleast 3 no hopers are withdrawn at the end of March so Character gets in!
I can’t believe some of the rubbish that is left in to be honest. I mean does Paul Nicholls really believe that Eurotrek is going to win the National as a 13 year old after a two year break. Do the sensible thing and pull him out Paul.
#4
March 18th, 2009 16:42
Maybe he does though Stephen!! Was reading an article recently and apparantly Eurotrek is stabled on winners row! So clearly still very highly thought of by Nicholls. Kauto Star is in box one, Denman next door, then Master Minded, Big Bucks in four, then Eurotrek in 5!! Next Big Fella Thanks followed by Noland, My Will.
#5
March 18th, 2009 17:34
I’d be happy to see CB miss the race, as he is a horse I have not backed but think has a squeak. I just don’t see him as win material. But I would not panic Stephen – I think he is a 100% certainty to make the race. At least 3 more will come out. Don’t panic.
#6
March 18th, 2009 18:14
saw an article on at the races website which to my mind said mouse morris was hinting at running HTE OR WOA in the national not both and is favouring the latter due to the weights issue.
#7
March 18th, 2009 20:52
I am just an avid follower of the sport and a punter too. Even I know that Eurotrek has zero chance of winning the National now.
Paul Nicholls is a champion trainer. Surely he must know that too. I’d love to know what he expects to happen. Another Foinavon?!
I’d have thought Can’t Buy Time must come out of the race aswell. Clearly doesn’t stay on current form. Only a 7 year old.
#8
March 19th, 2009 12:20
Character Building will get in, of that I am sure.
Arteea was number 70 on weights day, so anything above him should be safe. Also, I have noticed compared with last year, there have been more withdrawls at the first two stages, so some horses below Arteea may also get in.
#9
March 19th, 2009 13:25
I do note though that the two above CB are definite runners if they get in. Ferdy was on the radio today saying he would like Hot Weld to run and I know Tom George has made public quotes along the same lines about Kilbeggan Blade. But I agree with Daniel that CB will get a run – just not a win!
#10
March 20th, 2009 13:24
Nozic looking 50/50 for the National. Paul Nicholls said he may go for the Topham BUT Cornish Sett and Eurotrek WILL run in the national.
If that is true, then we’re looking at another 3lb hike in the weights, putting My Will on 11_04 and State of Play on 11-02.
#11
March 20th, 2009 13:55
Where did you read that Daniel?
#12
March 20th, 2009 14:23
On the Channel 4 racing teletext pages. It was PN’s words; not somebody qouting him.
#13
March 20th, 2009 14:29
Just as long as three come out so Character can get in
#14
March 20th, 2009 15:14
Excellent news about Nozic Daniel more and more runners now over the magic 11st1lb mark. Looks like it might well be Cloudy lane exactly as I predicted after all!
#15
March 20th, 2009 15:18
Im hoping it is Cloudy Lane, as it would rule out State of Play on my list, which would remove the need to churn over and over ad infinitum in my head the issue of the ‘days since last run’ trend!
If it is Cloudy Lane, I can’t see past;
Rambo
BC
Character Building (who personally Im not sure about)
Cornish Sett
Southern Vic (who personally I dont like)
and big BIG long shots;
L’Ami
Darkness.
If it is anybody else, I will be very, VERY surprised!
#16
March 20th, 2009 15:30
Looks like half the field will be 11st or more! Think the stats need to be relooked at. Its all relative so it matters not what weight the horse is carrying but what weight it has in relation to its competition.
If bottom weight is 10stone and there are plenty of runners between 10 and 11st then thats an entirely different story to if bottom weight is 10st 6lb and most the field is 11st +
#17
March 20th, 2009 15:44
BY MY RECKONING if Cloudy Lane is top weight, and all the others stay in, there will be 18 horses with more than 11 stone, and 2 with 11 stone. So yes, half the field will be 11 or more.
Personally though, I still cant see the winner having more than 11 stone, especially when you think top weight has gone down. When Corbiere carried 11_03, he was getting 11lb from top weight. When Hedgehunter carried 11_01 he was getting 11lb from top weight.
Would it not therefore be sensible to think that this year, with top weight at 11_10, we should be looking at horses getting at least 11lb i.e. 10_13 or less i.e. Butlers Cabin and below
?
What do you guys think.
#18
March 20th, 2009 15:46
I should have added that Roll Along is doubtful, and as already mentioned Chelsea Harbour and Hear The Echo may swerve, so it will perhaps be more like 14-15 carrying MORE than 11 stone, which if my memory serves me right is not a great deal more than last year, when I think 14 did.
#19
March 20th, 2009 15:46
I think there will be around 15 runners on 11st and above, meaning 25 won’t be. So there are still plenty of runners under that marker.
However I like to use the “12lbs above bottom weight” rule as the cut off. This allows for fluctuations in the bottom weight each year and makes the weight carried relative to the field as a whole.
#20
March 20th, 2009 16:07
I would have thought that Nicholls would want to run Nozic in order to keep a few lbs off of his other runners. Maybe the owners aren’t up for it though.
#21
March 20th, 2009 16:12
Its all relative though The Stayer; if PN’s horses are 2lb lighter, so are all the others.
#22
March 20th, 2009 16:29
I’m not so sure that it is all relative Daniel. There is the issue of relative vs absolute weight. In theory, if the weights all went up by a stone all the horses should still have the same chance as before. If the weights did go up by a stone then those at the top would be carrying 12-10 and those at the bottom would be on 11-5/11-6.
Now the question is this: under this arrangement would those at the top have a better chance of winning, the same chance or a lesser chance?
If you think it’s the same chance then the absolute weight that the horse is carrying is ignored. However, i think that over 4m4f absolute weight is important and the extra stone on top of 11-10 will be more of an inconvenience than an extra stone on top of 10-6. Therefore I would suggest that those lower down would benefit from the weights rise. Obviously if the weights were to rise by 2lbs the difference is much less pronounced but even 2lbs over 4m4f could make a difference in my opinion. I think trainers feel this hence in big handicaps they often leave one in at the top to keep the weight down for the more fancied runner lower down.
#23
March 20th, 2009 17:03
Now the question is this: under this arrangement would those at the top have a better chance of winning, the same chance or a lesser chance?
Pass!! its relative to the abilities of the horses I suppose!
A good point well made.
#24
March 20th, 2009 19:15
“I think trainers feel this hence in big handicaps they often leave one in at the top to keep the weight down for the more fancied runner lower down.”
As Nicholls did recently for I’msingingtheblues so he has form for this kind of thing.
#25
March 20th, 2009 19:27
Scratch that from the RP:
WEIGHTS for the John Smith’s Grand National on April 4 will rise by a further 3lb after current 11st 10lb top weight Snoopy Loopy was confirmed a non-runner on Friday and Paul Nicholls announced that Nozic, next in the handicap on 11st 8lb, is also doubtful.
Peter Bowen, Snoopy Loopy’s trainer, said his 11-year-old will run instead in the Totesport Bowlat Aintree, leaving Nozic as the new top weight.
But Nicholls revealed that burden would rule out his 66-1 outsider from the £900,000 chase, saying: “If Nozic ends up with top weight, he’d be a doubtful runner.”
Should Nozic, who also holds entries in the Topham Chase at Aintree and the Scottish National later in the year, not run Cloudy Lane, one of the joint-favourites for last year’s race, could end up at the head of the list.
Well happy with that as highest weight I have is BC, think SoP has it all to do now.
#26
March 20th, 2009 19:51
help please – narrowing down nicely now with weight increase, stumbling over a few so some advice would be useful; silver birch (am i just being loyal after having him at 33s) and offshore account.
#27
March 20th, 2009 20:39
Excellent news if this is the case.
My guess is bottom weight will be 10-6 or 10-5, something like that, on the day. Meaning that by adding 12lbs my cut off point would be 11-4 or 11-3. Obviously the ones either on this weight or very close to it have it all to do but still come into reckoning, just.
#28
March 20th, 2009 21:17
I reckon your spot on Stephen with 10-5 bottom weight. Might be a whole raft of forfeits at the top, going by what’s been said, Afistfullofdollars,WOA,HTE,Chelsea,Preists Leap? Connections know it’s nigh on impossible to win GN with huge weights.
#29
March 22nd, 2009 17:21
Stan is an unlikely runner as connections are seriously considering having a tilt at tha Nakajama Grand Jump with him.
#30
March 22nd, 2009 20:00
read on ATR website that mouse morris intends to run HTE ……OR….. WOA in the national with a favouring for the latter
#31
March 23rd, 2009 08:27
With the anticipated weight hikes is it going to be more profitable to bet ante-post with those non=runners still in, than when the new weights are published after their exemption?
#32
March 23rd, 2009 11:15
Looks like Hot Weld is also far from a certain runner, wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him go to Ayr instead:
Ferdy Murphy said he agreed to release Lee for Kilbeggan Blade because Hot Weld, for whom the trainer has booked Keith Mercer, is not a certain starter.
“Graham was offered the ride on Kilbeggan Blade,” Murphy said on Sunday. “I have an agreement with him that he has a free hand if he gets a good ride.
“There is a possibility that Hot Weld might go for the Scottish National if he did not sparkle before the race, so he wasn’t a certain runner. We weighed it up and decided he could take the ride.
“Keith has been very lucky for me round Aintree, so if Hot Weld does go there he is well able to ride him.”
#33
March 23rd, 2009 15:33
Another doubtful runner. May work out now for Himalayan Trail……
………Conna Castle is not a certain runner in the John Smith’s Grand National despite a fine run at Gowran Park last Friday.
The Jimmy Mangan-trained 10-year-old failed by only three-quarters of a length to peg back shock winner Battle Axe over two miles.
‘He ran a great race and he’s come out of it good. The owners are not exactly sure about the National. Davy Russell rode him and he didn’t seem to think he might be up to Aintree. We’re undecided,’ said Mangan.
#34
March 24th, 2009 13:16
Roll Along looks like he is being taken out too…
ROLL ALONG, who finished sixth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, will miss the John Smith’s Grand National in favour of a potential rematch with Kauto Star at Punchestown.
Trainer Carl Llewellyn said: “Roll Along is very unlikely to run in the Grand National. He is going to go to Punchestown and take on Kauto Star again. He will have a hell of a lot of weight at Aintree, 11st 6lb probably, and not many win with that weight. He is not a big horse to carry a lot of weight round there.
“We haven’t that much choice. It’s either Punchestown or the Scottish National or the Bet365 Gold Cup, in which he would have a lot of weight, so we will have to hope Kauto Star has an off day.”
#35
March 24th, 2009 15:46
Looking like Himilayan Trail will definately get a run.
Arteaa may well go off number 40, although this could in theory go as low as Zabenz.
#36
March 24th, 2009 17:14
SHARK ARE YOU SUGGESTING THAT “EUROTREK IS STABLES No1.???
AND NOT “MY WILL”
#37
March 24th, 2009 17:20
Can someone with up to date info post on here those defo not running and those doubtful – would be good to refer to.
Ta in advance.
Great thread Admin.
#38
March 24th, 2009 19:52
LAST YEAR’S Grand National runner-up King Johns Castle was on Tuesday ruled out of a return visit to Aintree on Saturday week after suffering a setback at home.
The JP McManus-owned grey made his seasonal bow when seventh over hurdles at Naas earlier this month and was a 25-1 chance with Coral, Victor Chandler and William Hill to go one better in the Aintree showpiece on April 4.
His trainer Arthur Moore said on Tuesday afternoon: “He suffered an overreach and the cut atthe back of his tendon has been pretty slow to heel. We needed to get plenty of work into him this week and it’s not possible now so unfortunately he won’t be going to Aintree next week.”
#39
March 24th, 2009 20:31
brody wisw i had seen your mail 15 minutes ago,i backed king johns castle as high as 170/1 down to 65/1, to late to lay off on betfair ” bugger”
#40
March 24th, 2009 22:39
Folks, just a reminder after reading the comments about the cut of, that the final 40 are NOT decided in the current weight listed order.
If, as I expect, the cut off is 10st 5lbs with Cloudy Lane as top weight, those around the 40 will be reordered within that weight bandby their CURRENT handicap mark
so…it would run, Kelami, Zabenz, Idle Talk, Cerium and then Arteea who is dropped to 133.
if we go lower, Maljamar is now Above Ice Tea and then the next batch will run Compnero, Niche Market, Pomme Tiepy, Mattock Ranger and Iron Man
Flintoff is best of those on the next mark, an expected 10st 2
#41
March 25th, 2009 09:31
SHARK ARE YOU SUGGESTING THAT “EUROTREK IS STABLES No1.???
AND NOT “MY WILL”
What I’m saying is that Nicholls clearly likes the horse. He has won over the fences, clearly has plenty of stamina and being so lightly raced he could very well be on a good handicap mark.
Of course the long lay off and the age go against him and that will put off most punters and probably jockeys. But at 150 on betfair I do think hes worth a couple of pounds of anyones money. If any trainer can win with a 13 year old after a long lay off then its Nicholls and if at full fitness the horses form is clearly good enough.
#42
March 25th, 2009 10:00
Showlad Says:
March 24th, 2009 at 5:20 PM
Can someone with up to date info post on here those defo not running and those doubtful – would be good to refer to.
Ta in advance.
Great thread Admin.
As far as I can tell these are the current withdrawals since the last forfeit stage, first group are def. out, second very doubtful so hold any bets till NRNB, the one’s in group 3 are based purely on my opinion would advise caution on any bets on them before NRNB:
Snoopy Loopy (IRE) 11 11-10 P Bowen 165 – OUT
Nozic (FR) 8 11-8 P F Nicholls 159 – OUT
Conna Castle (IRE) 10 10-3 James Joseph Mangan 140 – OUT
Roll Along (IRE) 9 11-4 C Llewellyn 160 – OUT
Stan (NZ) 10 11-3 Miss Venetia Williams 148 – OUT
King Johns Castle (IRE) 10 11-1 A L T Moore 151 – OUT
Hear The Echo (IRE) 8 11-2 M F Morris 149 – Very doubtful runner, going to fairyhouse
Afistfullofdollars (IRE) 11 11-9 N Meade 16 – Doubtful runner, trainer not keen to run with big weight
Ollie Magern 11 11-3 N A Twiston-Davies 151 – Doubtful runner, entered in other races at Aintree
Hot Weld 10 10-4 Ferdy Murphy 135 – Doubtful runner, off to Ayr
Parsons Legacy (IRE) 11 10-9 P J Hobbs 146 – Possible non-runner
Reveillez 10 10-9 Jonjo O’Neill 142 – Possible non-runner
Fleet Street 10 10-7 N J Henderson 142 – Possible non-runner
Can’t Buy Time (IRE) 7 10-6 Jonjo O’Neill 142 – Possible non-runner
#43
March 25th, 2009 14:16
Is Conna Castle out of the national as not heard anything elsewhere?
Do you think Chelsea harbour, Niche Market or Silver Birch will run as beleive these 3 to be good odds on betfair for outsiders?
any help would be good , if someone knows with the weights a best guess list of the 40 they think will run would be good
#44
March 25th, 2009 18:26
Is Conna Castle a non runner as not heard for sure?
also am looking at some outsiders and are thinking Silver Birch, Chelsea harbour, musicbella, niche market, Hobbs hill, not really sure out of the outsiders who will be likely to run, can anyone help?
also with the weight change when a few drop outs anyone know what the rankings are of the likely runners
thanks
#45
March 26th, 2009 19:53
regards CONNA CASTLE very strange goings on!
at time of posting still trading on betfair
I THINK “JOCKEY” was the gremlin with dubious comments because he favours riding WAR of ATTRITION
#46
March 27th, 2009 09:24
HOBBS HILL is running in a 3m Veterans Chase at Ascot today so must be an unlikely runner at Aintree.
#47
March 27th, 2009 09:28
Really Fancy Niche Market for a place if he gets in, 100-1 atm.. if the ground somehow became soft even though hes not got the exp companero could be worth a couple of pound ew.. whats the latest on these horses getting in?
#48
March 27th, 2009 12:46
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/character-building-ruled-out-of-grand-national/173757/
IMPORTANT NEWS!
CHARACTER BUILDING IS OUT!!!
Bad news for the race itself and those who had backed him.
#49
March 27th, 2009 13:12
I thought I read somewhere that they were going to do a six day declaration – does anyone know about this? Normally just Monday lunchtime 5 day decs isnt it?
#50
March 28th, 2009 10:09
I always pick a team of horses at ante post stage so that I can give myself any sort of a chance in this outstanding spectacle of a marathon. The main ones of long term interest would be EUROTREK and PARSONS LEGACY. These are both specifically trained for this race by fantastic yards and although Eurotrek is 13 and may be considered too old, Paul Nicholls thinks he must be worth holding on to. Parsons prep includes a good run before Christmas and a couple of less convincing runs close together just after, later had several races which saw the horse withdrawn. As the horse goes best when fresh maybe Mr.Hobbs has had this in mind all the time? Good luck to all. Remember this is a difficult one, but if it was easy we wouldn’t be interested would we?
#51
March 30th, 2009 12:25
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/aintree-grand-national-cloudy-lane-tops-national-weights-as-nine-defect/174806/
The following link has confirmed 9 horses who have defected plus the new top weight