Comments on: Grand National 2009: Final Analysis

By: crisp 73

crisp 73 — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 14:48:38 +0000

A few quotes of the BBC website;
James Reveley (Rambling Minster, pulled up 19th): “He didn’t take to it and just didn’t like it. He jumped OK until he made a mistake down the back and he was looking after himself after that so I pulled up going down the back on the second circuit.”

Phil Kinsella (Brooklyn Brownie, fell 2nd): “All sorts of things go through your head as you watch them gallop away from you. He was great down to the first and met it lovely and gave me a lot of confidence, but he didn’t meet the second as well and that was that.”

Richard Johnson (Parsons Legacy, fell 22nd): “I wish I hadn’t fallen. He was dead right, but it was too far out to tell where we might have finished.”

Mark Walsh (Reveillez, brought down at the third) said: “It was disappointing to (only) get as far as the third, but he is a nice horse.”

David Casey (Offshore Account, 15th): “I had a great ride round and he jumped so well, but he hadn’t run over fences for over a year and it told on him in the end. He’s still a good horse to look forward to.”

Christian Williams (Big Fella Thanks, sixth): He’ll be a year older next year, and perhaps on softer ground you never know. He’s only a baby. I had AP (on Butler’s Cabin) upsides me so I knew I was in the right place. He’s got a slight cut on his hind leg and that may have made a slight difference, but if he improves again and comes back with a nice weight next year he could go close.”

By: Pablo

Pablo — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 13:29:11 +0000

Qualifiers set to run in Irish Grand National that meet these 4 criteria:

1 – Have won a chase over 3miles or further,
2 – Have run in at least 7 chases,
3 – Have won a C1/C2 chase worth 17k or more AND
4 – Have placed in a C1 chase over 3 miles or further.

Notre Pere
Chelsea Harbour
One Cool Cookie
Casey Jones
Royal County Star
Arbor Supreme
Himalayan Trail
Niche Market
Church Island
Emma Jane
Pomme Tiepy
A New Story
Forest Leaves
Newbay Prop
Bella Mana Mou
Operation Houdini

By: admin

admin — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 09:34:36 +0000

Oedipe – I’ll look into if this is possible – I have a feeling it might be but only through out our other site, OLBG. I will get back to you but need to check with the technical people who won’t be available till after Easter.

By: Neil

Neil — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 21:45:42 +0000

Brian the entire field was compressed into 1 stone 5 pounds.In my younger days it used to be 2 stones and most were long handicaps.
12 pounds from Zabenz (40th to get in) at 10 stone 5 is 11 stone 3 pound;Eurotrek’s weight.
However if I’d known this fact I would have dropped My Will.
My general observation is that horses you short list one year keeps popping up year after year(providing they have the correct weight and age)
Silver Birch was an horse who made my short list year on year.Kept the faith and was rewarded when it won got 47/1 on betfair.
One question on weights how do you know whose bottom weight when your compiling facts in feb when weights come out,or is this something that can only be done on or near the day.
Will be applying the 12 pound from bottom next year,thank you.

By: Brian

Brian — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 09:28:46 +0000

Cheers for the weight issue below top weight Crisp. I think because the top weight was reduced by 2lbs this year then it helped compress the top weights that bit closer so it does explain why that stat changed (for me anyways) and 1lb is not that big a difference anyways.

Neil, the Stat we were discussing regarding weight above bottom weight is 12lbs above so Mon Mome fitted in. The fact that 3 other horses placed above 11 stone changes nothing, if they had had a few pounds less and were only 12lbs above bottom weight then who knows if they would of won, but the fact is they didn’t win its all ifs and maybes and theres too many of them to contemplate and build a safety net around.

RE 2010 Flintoff is a horse i have been watching over the last 2 seasons to see if it will turn into a national horse at the moment im edging on the side of caution and think it could be another year before it is.

By: Systemsman

Systemsman — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 19:45:51 +0000

Oedipe many thanks that will be a great help. I will post ofcourse after we know the OR’s/RPR’s for the Irish and Scots Nat.

By: Neil

Neil — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 19:18:57 +0000

Looking at this year’s result,yes the winner carried 11 stone to victory or 9 pounds more than bottom weight,but the key is the first 4 had 11 stone something.I think everyone seems to be rapped up with you can’t win with 11 stone or more.Analysis of placed horses (where possible,may give you an accurate picture.)

By: Pablo

Pablo — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 18:12:08 +0000

When you are using RPR figures be aware that these are open to revision – recently for example Butler’s Cabin Irish GN performance downgraded from 150 to 147 a few weeks before this year’s GN – i.e. dead level with his rating

And Garde Champetre and L’Ami’s RPR downgraded by 7lb between their Cross Country 1-2 at the Festival and GN

So if you are using a RPR-OR threshold be sure to check the figures before placing any bets

By: Oedipe

Oedipe — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 17:45:28 +0000

Systemsman, I’ve got the same data, so after you’ve posted up I’ll audit the figures to make sure we’ve not got any mistakes.

Checks and balances are good

By: Systemsman

Systemsman — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 17:03:17 +0000

Amendment to post 32:

Should read:
“One example:
Welsh National 2007
Mon Mome 2nd
OR 136 RPR 151 = +15!

Grand National 2009
Mon Mome 1st
OR 148 RPR 166 = +18!

Its time I used that spred sheet!!! (so many figures)