Grand National 2009: Final Analysis

Hi everyone,

Apologies for the loss of the blog for a while there yesterday – we had a few technical problems and it was just not possible to keep the blog online throughout a hugely busy time for this site.

Also, it may take me till tomorrow afternoon to catch up and announce the winner of the Grand National Tipster competition – I hope you will bear with me.

Next, could we start using this thread as the final analysis point for the 2009 Grand National. I let the last post carry on longer than I should have (again!) really because of the strength of the postings but if we could all move on to here now that would be most appreciated. So, please, let us all know how you felt about GN 2009 on this thread.

Lastly, keep an eye out for Scottish and Irish Grand National threads starting up in the next few days as well as a thread for the 2010 Grand National. I hope you will all stay with us and tell all your friends next year so we continue to make this the biggest and best Grand National blog on the Internet. We really appreicate all your input – thanks very much and I hope you managed to show a profit in 2009.

Admin (Darren)

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142 Responses to Grand National 2009: Final Analysis

  1. Brian says:

    I’ll be sticking with the carrying no more than 12lbs than bottom weight as its builds in for the handicap being more and more compressed.

    Out of interest Crisp what was the stat for the weight carried below top weight prior to this year as it is now 10lbs below top weight.

    In a way im hoping it was no more than 12lbs before this year as there is a viable explanation if it was indeed only 11lbs or 12lbs below top weight.

  2. Pablo says:

    Crisp – I think if you look at those below 11 stone with key race form – there wasn’t much to beat to be fair:

    Butler’s Cabin – weighted out of it by handicapper & no form for 2 years

    L’Ami – chances but many thought running in too poor company to be winning a GN

    Parson’s Legacy – doubts about layoff and ground

    Cornish Sett – not enough ahead of the handicapper

    Himalayan Trail – no form all season

    Also Darkness & Southern Vic fancied on novice form but neither had proved themselves in a key race

    Basically left Rambo as a stonking good bet after his Haydock performance or so we thought!

    This 12lb above top weight is something I will bear in mind next year – this year I awarded 1 point to 11’5 or less and 2 to 10’13 or less so it didn’t make a dramatic difference to my ratings but the difference from bottom weight is one I like

    The breeding thing I use works well for GB and IRE horses but I don’t know enough about French breds – so will reduce it’s importance for next year (or only use on GB and IRE horses as an indicator of stamina)

    Perhaps we were all looking too hard for the below 11’0 good thing – hopefully there’ll be one next year!

  3. Brian says:

    Pablo says:

    Perhaps we were all looking too hard for the below 11′0 good thing – hopefully there’ll be one next year!

    Or hopefuly we will have learnt we dont need to find one below 11 stone as long as we stick to the 12lbs trend rule.

    I would be tempted to stop looking at the breeding altogether Pablo rather than use it on just GB & IRE horses as it can only be a fair asseessment if you know all the horses breeding background and not just half the fields. Thats why i dont pay attention to the strong gale factor as i dont know enough to compare it with anything.

  4. admin says:

    Hi guys,

    INDIVIDUAL HORSE THREADS

    I’m quite happy to give this a go but I am concerned about the amount of space this is going to take up – I’m not sure we could or should have 70 or 80 individual pages with a handful of comments on each horse.
    I’m also concerned that people will simply cut and paste comments from a main thread into horse threads and we will end up with duplication. We are under pressure for space so that is also something that I would want to avoid.
    I’ll put up a thread for the placed horses in this year’s National to begin with (I’ll start putting them up in the next couple of days) and then as the ante-post market starts to settle down I’ll add any horse that appears to be strongly fancied or any horse that runs well in a trial.
    If anyone has a horse they particularly want to write about let me know and we will see if we can put a thread about that as well.

    THREAD LENGTHS

    I will do my best to make sure that the thread length stays within a manageable level but please be aware that I have other tasks to do and unfortunately I can’t focus on the blog 24/7.

    Thanks

  5. Brian says:

    Admin,

    Rather than do an individual thread for each horse would it not be easier and better if we had an individual thread for each trend.

    That way people can put there ideas and thoughts forward regarding them i.e. The french Bred / Over 11 stones.

    That way the same thing isn’t getting said in each thread and those that dont go by that trend dont need to read all the posts regarding it.

  6. Oedipe says:

    Admin – is it possible to add a comments link to the profiles that already exist for each horse? Strikes me this is an obvious place to link from.

  7. Oedipe says:

    I’d like to make a point about the weight trend.

    To understand why the 11st barrier has existed for so long, I feel you have to take a step back and remember this is a HANDICAP race. The aim is for all the horses to finish in a heap. The winner will be the horse that is capable of running to the highest mark over their handicap. In order to do this, the horse has to be capable of improvement. So it’s probable it will either be a progressive horse that is ascending the ratings first time around, or a horse that has reached a peak, regressed, and is on the ascendency again.

    Winners of the GN typically run a stone better than their official rating. There is more scope for this level of improvement from an OR around 135-150 than there is an OR around 150+, for the latter would be propelling itself out of handicap class and into Cheltenham Gold Cup territory. And history shows us, that potentially smart horses, who would have won major novice honours are not taken down a handicapping route and aimed at the GN.

    So it’s simply been the case that the biggest potential for improvement has laid with the horses rated around 135-150 mark, which due to the way the weights are framed is usually around 11st and under.

    In my opinion, the actualy weight carried is of less relevance than the ability of the horse to run above it’s mark. Whether it’s running off 10st or 11-10.

    If, for arguments sake, Denman had been in the race off 181, then Cloudy Lane (158) would have raced with 10-1 and all the others would have been out of the handicap. (In practice that would have led a lot of the other highly rated horses to stand their ground, but I think you can understand the point.)

    And if you need any more evidence, just go back to Denman’s Hennessy win.

  8. Pablo says:

    “I would be tempted to stop looking at the breeding altogether Pablo rather than use it on just GB & IRE horses as it can only be a fair asseessment if you know all the horses breeding background and not just half the fields. Thats why i dont pay attention to the strong gale factor as i dont know enough to compare it with anything.”

    Fair point but if my ratings pick out a GB or IRE horse next year as number 1 AND it scores well on breeding I will up my stake accordingly (system has been useful for other races)

    There’s finding the winner and if you do having enough on if you really believe it will win

    I have no regrets about backing Rambo but I have learned:

    1. To let the stats do the talking first (agree with yourself what stats you are going to use and do not change them – there’s plenty of time to analyse all winners back to Mr Frisk / Seagram on RP website)

    2. Get the shortlist sorted & staking plan

    3. Then look at each horse

    4. Hold your ground and only change stats if they make sense

    5. Bet accordingly

    Which is what I used to do!

  9. Lough ' So Tough' Derg says:

    Hi all
    Checking in after a few days break. Must say I’m quite annoyed at the comments about us getting it all wrong. I agree we need to learn from the result but without a shadow of a doubt Rambo was the stand out bet. You give me the same card again and I’d pick Rambo out everytime. The reason why people weren’t critical of him was because there were hardly any reasons. Even looking back now, after the race, its hard to make a case against him. As far as I can see there is two things:
    1. He won 2 races in GN season (can we really start punishing horses for this?)
    2. He had no form in top races. (This was a horse that both trainer and jockey themselves had expressed their surprise at his change in form this season – was clearly a different horse. Plus the Blue Square Gold Cup is a pretty classy race imo).

    Don’t put yourselves down guys (and girls) we did nothing wrong, result just didn’t go 100% to plan that’s all.

    What we do need to ask is more why Mon Mome wasn’t backed at all – at least as a saver. For me it was his unplacing last year (which I then broke later with CS and L’ami :@) and his woeful form of late.

    He was a top trends fitter and was in my list up until around 1-2 weeks before the race, but his race in Midlands Nat – so soon to the GN finished him off for me. On the day I did express “That’s 100-1? Was fave for the Welsh Nat only few months ago, no way he should be that price!” However this price combined with stable jockey’s choice just solidified my feelings that I was right to cross it off.

    Think those of us who tipped up L’ami can give ourselves a slight tap on the back as he was probably the ultimate trends fitter this year and we picked him out despite the fact that he was unplaced in previous Nationals and the fact that he was French. Exactly the same for Mon Mome. Difference with MM is that L’ami had been in very good form this season and had performed well in an easy race at Cheltenham compared with MM who had a tough race half a week later finishing 8th in Midlands Nat.

    RE the ‘unplaced in previous Nat’ thing, I don’t think we should just allow anything in now. There has to be a reason why they were so far behind. For me with Lami and CS it was that L’ami was much better off at weights than when unplacing, was better age, had been hampered and was with new stable. CS had had wind operation that was now helping as seen when staying on in Welsh Nat. Mon Mome was badly hampered by Butlers Cabin last year (just watched it again) and then hit the next fence (as many hampered horses seem to do) and couldn’t get back into it from then – see Aiden Coleman’s comments after the race:
    10th place:
    Mon Mome 1½l
    Aidan Coleman: “He gave me an absolutely brilliant spin. He was going well but Tony McCoy’s horse fell in front of us at Becher’s second time and half fell in front of my horse and that took him out of the race.”

    I think we still need to apply this trend for unplaced horses unless: they were hampered, are much much better off weights-wise or other outstanding circumstances (breathing op POST-race, ran 3 yrs previous when only 6 etc). After all, if they got a fair spin at it once, there has to be some decent excuse as to why they are going to fair better next time.

    Already noting down everyone’s trends for this year. Nice work all.

    RE the separate threads for each horse. Not sure quite how logical this is. In these threads we discuss so many different things, often in one post. There’s plenty of different conversations going on at the same time usually. Would just make it too structured imo. I think the best way is to keep on top of the threads. Make sure they don’t get too big, and maybe have a search engine in place, so users can search the blogs for info in individual horses. Find all posts that mention that horse etc. Would be much better.

    Sure there’s something I’ve missed. Keep up the good work everyone.
    Ells
    1

  10. crisp 73 says:

    Brian, from 1990 – 2008, Hedgehunter had carried the highest weight in relation to top weight, 11lbs less than top weight. I did post just before the GN so there should be a list here somewhere. So Mon Mome has raised the bar 1lb.

  11. Showlad says:

    Brian re change – I just do not think we can justify limiting say the Welsh, Scots or Irish Nationals to Top3 but go Top 5 in Hennessy – that is my point. Views anyone?
    I think the Big Nationals should go to the Top 4, unless given solid reason why not to, whether it makes a list bigger or not.
    The question should be what is relevant to be included and not what should be excluded because it makes the check list longer.

  12. Daniel Edwards says:

    TC says:
    April 5, 2009 at 3:50 PM
    Daniel Edwards says:
    April 5, 2009 at 3:46 PM
    All of the last 20 winners (Red Mauarder aside) had ALREADY by this stage placed in a C1 chase over 3miles or further. Should narrow things down a bit!

    do you mean now or by end of season, as there are a couple of nationals coming up

    Just responding to this one from the other thread. I meant by the end of this season, although MOST already done it by now and in fact I have just realised that ROUGH QUEST did not meet this stat, having placed in his 3 C1 chases in the same season (Racing Post Chase, Welsh National, Gold Cup)

    Sorry about that guys. But though it best to come clean now!

    Still, kind of links in with the stat about not having performed too well in the season of the National; best to find a horse who has proved themselves already in previous seasons and not back one on the basis of one race (Rambo! ;) )

    I wouldnt be put off by a horse having placed in their only C1 chase in the same season, but looking back, 18/20 winners had done in by the end of the season before their National, so I definately think it helps point you in the direction of the winner, as there are surprisingly few horses who meet this and the other required stats at this stage.

  13. Daniel Edwards says:

    Sorry, the above should say Hennessy and NOT Welsh National

  14. Gammers says:

    Any fancies for the 2010 National?!

    Russian Trigger looks like he would fit the profile for next year. Only concern would be lack of chase experience, and if that were to be rectified the impact it may have on the OR before weights day 2010.

    Trainer states hopes he’ll be a National runner ‘one day’.

  15. Systemsman says:

    Amazing the bookies have already formed a good book on the GN 2010 at:

    http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/grand-national

    Denman Fav at 20/1

  16. Systemsman says:

    “Daniel Edwards says:
    April 7, 2009 at 4:12 PM

    I wouldnt be put off by a horse having placed in their only C1 chase in the same season, but looking back, 18/20 winners had done in by the end of the season before their National, so I definately think it helps point you in the direction of the winner, as there are surprisingly few horses who meet this and the other required stats at this stage.”

    Reply:
    Bloody hell Daniel does that mean I oould start a thred named “Can we find the Grand National winnner in June? – Yes we can!”

    On second thoughts I think we all deserve a rest but i will start to comply some notes on those key races ready for Dec. Would be nice to recoup just a few £’s on Irish or Scots National though (woud help buld the GN kitty).

    Have already started to rebuild my GN betting bank with 2/2 winning days (sticking to AW where my system has a great strike rate)with tiny stakes (well they would be after such a loss)but i’am not one for lying down and feeling sorry for myself (well not for too long anyway).

    I intend to win the GN in 2010 (and to help all of us win) and recoup the investment i made in 2009 – cant wait to give those rich bookies a bloody good hiding for taking my money!(did you know that the share price of the major bookies went up after the GN – not surprised with all that money they made).

    2009 was the bookies GN
    2010 will be the peoples GN!!!

  17. Neil says:

    Just like to add a search engine is excellent idea,mentioned by Lough ‘so tough’ Derg.I was going to say about starting each horse under it’s initial ie:-M would have My will & Mon mome.Although Z would only have Zabenz.Maybe the idea could be thought out better by someone else (or dropped as a bad idea,as it’s just off top of my head).
    Next I’d like to thank Darren aka Admin for setting this site,I came across it by accident.Looking up Grand National Weights on goggle.Very informative and quite intellectual discussions going on.Would they be anymore races other than National,SN,IGN like the Bet 365 (I always know it as The Whitbread)Sandown
    Trends of the race are very important but the trend of an individual horse/trainer is just as important.Like War Of Attrition Use to follow him a few seasons back so I’d know that he best at 2 miles 6 furlongs combined with a 5 week rest.Others might know trends of other horses/trainers which will help us to come to a conclusion.

  18. crisp 73 says:

    Showlad; Why Hennessey top 5 and, say, Welsh National top 3? No National winner in the last 37 years has finished 6th or worse in a Hennessey and not qualified on other criteria of winner profile/ finished 4th or worse in Irish, Scots, Welsh National and not qualified on other criteria/no horse has finished 3rd or lower in a race over GN fences etc.

    Have began looking at last 19 GN winners, what had they achieved by the end of April the year before their GN win. 18/19 had ran in at least 7 chases-Lord Gyllene had only been in the country for a season.
    Some 2010 possibles, on winner profile,(ages next April);Character Building 10*, State Of Play 10, Parsons Legacy 12*, Miko De Beauchene 10, Iris De Balme 10*, Flintoff 9*, Hot Weld 11*, Nine De Sivola 9, Butlers Cabin 10, Comply Or Die 11,Black Apalachi 11.
    I’ve asterisked some I’m quite keen on at the moment.

  19. Daniel Edwards says:

    Character Building 10*, State Of Play 10, Parsons Legacy 12*, Miko De Beauchene 10, Iris De Balme 10*, Flintoff 9*, Hot Weld 11*, Nine De Sivola 9, Butlers Cabin 10, Comply Or Die 11,Black Apalachi 11.

    With State of Play, Mike De Beauchene, Comply or Die likely to have too much weight, and Butlers Cabin having missed his best chance, I make it that the list becomes;

    Character Building (OR too high perhaps?)
    Parsons Legacy
    Hot Weld

    ALL INJURY PRONE-Long term antepost bets probably not sensible

    Iris De Balme
    Flintoff
    Nine De Sivola (17 chase runs and no wins!! No thank you, not for me)
    Black Apalachi (could be hugely intersting if his mark gets low enough)

    I like Flintoff more and more. Why has nobody priced him up yet?!

  20. Pablo says:

    Irish Raptor, Flintoff on softish ground or Russian Trigger

    Iris De Balme if fit & handicapper is generous

    Something might come out of the Irish GN

  21. crisp 73 says:

    15/16 GN winners had won a C1/C2 chase worth 17k by the end of April, one year before their GN win. Lord Gyllene, again, is the odd won out.

  22. Daniel Edwards says:

    Keep going Crisp!! what about the 3 mile stat? and their OR at the end of the season before ;)

  23. crisp 73 says:

    23/25 GN winners had won at 24f or more by the end of April, a year before their GN wins. Lord Gyllene/Red Marauder are odd ones out.

    15/19 GN winners had recorded RPR 144 a year before their GN win.
    17/19 GN winners had recorded a left handed RPR 141 a year before their GN win.

  24. crisp 73 says:

    Add to above post.
    Didn’t have a 144 RPR performance; Lord Gyllene,Monty’s Pass, Amberleigh House, Numbersixvalverde.

    Didn’t have a left handed 141 RPR performance; Lord Gyllene, Numbersixvalverde.

  25. crisp 73 says:

    RedRum; Thanks for the breeding info on Mon Mome. Could I get my requests in for 2010? Character Building, Flintoff, Iris de Blame, Parsons Legacy, Hot Weld.

  26. Oedipe says:

    Sorry to interrup the forward thinking, but thought I would just throw this in as a classic example of how blindly applying trends lead you to overlook the chances of too many runners.

    http://blogs.mirror.co.uk/racing/2009/04/value-scope-lift-the-gloom-wit.html

    The above link is to the Valuescope column on the eve of the 2009 GN. The key paragraph for me is “…Anyway, those with official ratings that are too high on the records and can be eliminated go from Cloudy Lane at the top to L’Ami who is number 23.”

    For the future it would help to have a discussion of all horses and their full trends match, rather than limiting the field based upon a strict adherence to a single stat.

    :)

  27. Daniel Edwards says:

    So to summarise Crisp’s stats, by the end of April 2009, the GN winner for 2010 (whoever he/she may be) will have, with perhaps about 90% certainty;

    1 – Have won a chase over 3miles or further,
    2 – Have run in at least 7 chases,
    3 – Have won a C1/C2 chase worth 17k or more AND
    4 – Have placed in a C1 chase over 3 miles or further.

    Excpetions to these rules were Red Marauder, Rough Quest, Lord Gyllene.

    Good work Crisp.

    I like that a lot. Couple this with Systemsman OR stats, and I would think we’re down to a workable chunk already!!

    Over to you Systemsman! What are the pre christmas OR stats? We can tweek accordingly to allow for the extra time before the race.

  28. Pablo says:

    There’s a good few entered in the Irish National that qualify based on those 4 factors Daniel

    I’ll get a list sometime this week when I’ve finished my Irish GN analysis

  29. crisp 73 says:

    Thought I should post this again. Updated, last 30 winners.

    Rubstic – won at 29f / placed at 33f
    Ben Nevis – won at 33f
    Aldaniti – won at 24f/ placed at 33f
    Grittar – won at 26f, think this was furthest he ran
    Corbiere – won at 30f
    Hallo Dandy – won at 28f
    Last Suspect – won at 29f
    West Tip – won at 29f
    Maori Venture – won at 27f /think he only ran further once, 29f/P
    Rhyme N Reason – won at 29f / placed at 30f
    Little Polveir – won at 33f
    Mr Frisk – won at 29f
    Seagram – won at 32f
    Party Politics – won at 26f / placed at 30f
    Miinnehoma – won at 26f / placed at 30f
    Royal Athlete – won at 28f
    Rough Quest – won at 26f/ placed at 27f, only ran further once, 28f/ fell
    Lord Gyllene – won at 34f
    Earth Summit – won at 33f
    Bobbyjo – won at 29f
    Papillon – won at 24f / placed at 29f
    Red Marauder – won at 24f /ran further three times, 27f,29f,36f/5th,O,fell
    Bindaree – won at 25f/ placed at 30f
    Montys Pass – won at 24f, furthest he ran
    Amberleigh House – won at 27f / placed at 36f
    Hedgehunter – won at 28f / placed at 30f
    Numbersixvalverde – won at 29f
    Silver Birch – won at 29f / placed at 31f
    Comply Or Die – won at 33f
    Mon Mome – won at 27f / placed at 30f

    Oedipe, I’m not blindly applying any trends and I haven’t bet on anything yet nor am I advocating anyone should do so. With regard to the weight, Valuescope and many others are wrong in their analysis on the ’11st’. Since fences were modified after 89 National we’ve had 19 races, many different top weights, many diferent OR’s of top weights but one fact. Nothing has carried more than 12lbs more than bottom weight to victory. Sure something could come out of the clouds next year carrying something near top weight but remember only Red Rum has carried more than 11-5 to victory since the 1950′s. Nothing has carried more than 14lbs more than bottom weight to victory since 1983. We don’t know what the top weight/OR will be next year. I reckon if we look at horses at a conservative OR 155 or less now we won’t be faraway.

  30. Pablo says:

    Last 19 winners – best key race form:

    Hennessy: 3rd Mr Frisk RPR 156 (OR 154) +2lb – in GN winning season (incomplete data for Mr Frisk)

    Racing Post: 3rd Seagram RPR 142 (OR 154) -12lb – subsequently posted RPR 160 (OR 146) winning at Cheltenham 23 days before GN win (well in for GN)

    Hennessy: 2nd Party Politics RPR 158 (OR 152) +6lb – subsequently 2nd in Welsh National RPR 148 (OR 153) -5lb in winning season (not great RPR-OR stats but 2 qualifying races in same season – knocking on the door)

    Welsh: 3rd Miinnehoma RPR 148 (OR 157) -9lb – previously RPR 159 winning SunAlliance Chase and posted 160 in winning season (top class juvenile form allied to key race form > Darkness for example)

    Gold Cup: 3rd Royal Athlete RPR 163 – subsequently posted 163 later that year – off injured and rated 155 in GN (benefitted from reduced OR from injury)

    Gold Cup: 2nd Rough Quest RPR 170 – GN OR was 152 – well in at the weights 16 days later

    Midlands: 2nd Lord Gyllene RPR 155 (OR 148) +7lb – already posted 156 and 157 in this the GN winning season (ultra-consistent quality)

    Welsh: 1st Earth Summit RPR 157 (OR 143) +14lb in GN winning season (no more to be said)

    Irish: 1st Bobbyjo RPR 153 (OR 121) +32lb – subsequently posted nothing of note before GN except best ever hurdles RPR (well backed to win)

    Irish: 2nd Papillon RPR 164 (OR 133) +31lb – subsequently posted RPR 150 following season but nothing major in GN winning season (Trainer blames soft ground) except best ever hurdles RPR run before GN win (well backed to win)

    Hennessy: 5th Red Marauder RPR 143 (OR 142) +1lb – subsequently posted 145 (poor race that year)

    Welsh: 3rd Bindaree RPR 141 (OR 136) +5lb (also Hennessy 5th RPR 130 (OR 139) -9lb) – best run BEFORE Welsh National 144 in Tommy Whittle at Haydock in winning season (not great stats)

    Topham 2nd: Monty’s Pass RPR 142 (OR 131) +11lb – subsequently posted PRP 148 in winning season

    Becher: 2nd Amberleigh House RPR 154 (OR 131) +23lb and won National that season (also won Becher and come 2nd in race before with low rating & RPR)

    Welsh: 3rd Hedgehunter RPR 125 (OR 131) -6lb BUT next run Thyestes Chase: 1st RPR 156 (OR 129) +27lb – subsequently posted 150 in only chase start in season of National win (strong hint he was back near best)

    Irish: 1st Numbersixvalverde RPR 138 (OR 126) +12lb (not earth-shattering RPR but low rating) – subsequently posted RPR 146 in winning season

    Welsh: 1st Silver Birch RPR 148 (OR 132) + 16lb (excellent RPR for rating) – subsequently posted RPR 150 in winning season

    Hennessy: 4th Comply Or Die – RPR 155 (OR 146) +9lb (OR dropped to 140 from 148 after injury) – subsequently posted RPR 155 in winning season AND handicapper gave him a chance after injury

    Welsh: 2nd Mon Mome – RPR 151 (OR 136) +15lb (excellent RPR for rating) – subsequently posted RPR 155 in winning season

    Summary – mixed bag but generally strong key race form and one piece of equivalent form in current season is a strong indicator

    In most cases very good form well ahead of OR posted in key races but not always the case – sometimes key race form not best form (Hedgehunter) – sometimes best form reserved for season of win (Amberleigh House) – sometimes difficult to explain why they won (no stand-out stats for Red Marauder or Bindaree)

  31. crisp 73 says:

    42/42 GN stat; a top 4 chase/top 3 hurdle place in winning season.

    Well, Comply Or Die nor My Will didn’t, though of course neither won. So a very strong stat in terms of longevity but perhaps when weighing up fancies a postive should be given to top 4 chase/top 3 hurdle but perhaps if you’ve got a points table then half a point awarded to top 5/top 4 hurdle?

  32. Systemsman says:

    Daniel Edwards
    “Over to you Systemsman! What are the pre christmas OR stats? We can tweek accordingly to allow for the extra time before the race.”

    Reply:
    In case you missed it: Pre-Christmas Trends of GN winner.

    All past 10-12 winners had all these trends by 19th Feb 9 for trend 4 only, and trend 6 by 15th Jan only).

    1. OR 136 to 148 (11/12 trend) but add 2pts for a safety margin and check between OR136 and OR150 for your first short list
    2. RPR rating 144minimum (10/11, 11 from 11 by 15th Jan)
    3. Won case value £17,000 or more (12/12)
    4. 3 Chase wins (any type) or more (10/11, 11/11 by 19th Feb)
    5. Age 8 to 12 (13/13)
    6. Completed in 10 Chases (10/11, 11/11 by 15th Jan)
    7. Won over 24f or more (12/12, 10/12 at 25f or more)
    8. Won Class 1 or 2 Chase-any type (12/12)
    9. TS rating minimum of 111 (13/13, TS 128 or more 8/12)

    Trend 1 if the only change from this year.

    Even though i am looking in detail at up to OR150 for next years winner I will also dimiss nothing from considertaion!! (Denman could put a spanner in the works).

    Some intersting results coming out of my reseach on past winners of the key races for 2009, 2008,and 2007. Will post my thoughts on this when the new RPR etc for 2009 Scottish and Irish National results are out. I’am paying a lot of attention to OR compared to RPR achieved in these races.

    One example:
    Welsh National 2007
    Mon Mome 2nd
    Or 136 RPR 166 = +15!

    I will post a league table of best RPR compared to OR in these key races after the Scots Nat results and new RPR’s are out(obviously we wont have the 2009 Welsh Nat result yet so to make amends I will use WN results for 2008,2007 and 2006 for the moment).

  33. Systemsman says:

    Amendment to post 32:

    Should read:
    “One example:
    Welsh National 2007
    Mon Mome 2nd
    OR 136 RPR 151 = +15!

    Grand National 2009
    Mon Mome 1st
    OR 148 RPR 166 = +18!

    Its time I used that spred sheet!!! (so many figures)

  34. Oedipe says:

    Systemsman, I’ve got the same data, so after you’ve posted up I’ll audit the figures to make sure we’ve not got any mistakes.

    Checks and balances are good :)

  35. Pablo says:

    When you are using RPR figures be aware that these are open to revision – recently for example Butler’s Cabin Irish GN performance downgraded from 150 to 147 a few weeks before this year’s GN – i.e. dead level with his rating

    And Garde Champetre and L’Ami’s RPR downgraded by 7lb between their Cross Country 1-2 at the Festival and GN

    So if you are using a RPR-OR threshold be sure to check the figures before placing any bets

  36. Neil says:

    Looking at this year’s result,yes the winner carried 11 stone to victory or 9 pounds more than bottom weight,but the key is the first 4 had 11 stone something.I think everyone seems to be rapped up with you can’t win with 11 stone or more.Analysis of placed horses (where possible,may give you an accurate picture.)

  37. Systemsman says:

    Oedipe many thanks that will be a great help. I will post ofcourse after we know the OR’s/RPR’s for the Irish and Scots Nat.

  38. Brian says:

    Cheers for the weight issue below top weight Crisp. I think because the top weight was reduced by 2lbs this year then it helped compress the top weights that bit closer so it does explain why that stat changed (for me anyways) and 1lb is not that big a difference anyways.

    Neil, the Stat we were discussing regarding weight above bottom weight is 12lbs above so Mon Mome fitted in. The fact that 3 other horses placed above 11 stone changes nothing, if they had had a few pounds less and were only 12lbs above bottom weight then who knows if they would of won, but the fact is they didn’t win its all ifs and maybes and theres too many of them to contemplate and build a safety net around.

    RE 2010 Flintoff is a horse i have been watching over the last 2 seasons to see if it will turn into a national horse at the moment im edging on the side of caution and think it could be another year before it is.

  39. Neil says:

    Brian the entire field was compressed into 1 stone 5 pounds.In my younger days it used to be 2 stones and most were long handicaps.
    12 pounds from Zabenz (40th to get in) at 10 stone 5 is 11 stone 3 pound;Eurotrek’s weight.
    However if I’d known this fact I would have dropped My Will.
    My general observation is that horses you short list one year keeps popping up year after year(providing they have the correct weight and age)
    Silver Birch was an horse who made my short list year on year.Kept the faith and was rewarded when it won got 47/1 on betfair.
    One question on weights how do you know whose bottom weight when your compiling facts in feb when weights come out,or is this something that can only be done on or near the day.
    Will be applying the 12 pound from bottom next year,thank you.

  40. admin says:

    Oedipe – I’ll look into if this is possible – I have a feeling it might be but only through out our other site, OLBG. I will get back to you but need to check with the technical people who won’t be available till after Easter.

  41. Pablo says:

    Qualifiers set to run in Irish Grand National that meet these 4 criteria:

    1 – Have won a chase over 3miles or further,
    2 – Have run in at least 7 chases,
    3 – Have won a C1/C2 chase worth 17k or more AND
    4 – Have placed in a C1 chase over 3 miles or further.

    Notre Pere
    Chelsea Harbour
    One Cool Cookie
    Casey Jones
    Royal County Star
    Arbor Supreme
    Himalayan Trail
    Niche Market
    Church Island
    Emma Jane
    Pomme Tiepy
    A New Story
    Forest Leaves
    Newbay Prop
    Bella Mana Mou
    Operation Houdini

  42. crisp 73 says:

    A few quotes of the BBC website;
    James Reveley (Rambling Minster, pulled up 19th): “He didn’t take to it and just didn’t like it. He jumped OK until he made a mistake down the back and he was looking after himself after that so I pulled up going down the back on the second circuit.”

    Phil Kinsella (Brooklyn Brownie, fell 2nd): “All sorts of things go through your head as you watch them gallop away from you. He was great down to the first and met it lovely and gave me a lot of confidence, but he didn’t meet the second as well and that was that.”

    Richard Johnson (Parsons Legacy, fell 22nd): “I wish I hadn’t fallen. He was dead right, but it was too far out to tell where we might have finished.”

    Mark Walsh (Reveillez, brought down at the third) said: “It was disappointing to (only) get as far as the third, but he is a nice horse.”

    David Casey (Offshore Account, 15th): “I had a great ride round and he jumped so well, but he hadn’t run over fences for over a year and it told on him in the end. He’s still a good horse to look forward to.”

    Christian Williams (Big Fella Thanks, sixth): He’ll be a year older next year, and perhaps on softer ground you never know. He’s only a baby. I had AP (on Butler’s Cabin) upsides me so I knew I was in the right place. He’s got a slight cut on his hind leg and that may have made a slight difference, but if he improves again and comes back with a nice weight next year he could go close.”