Grand National 2009: Final Analysis
Hi everyone,
Apologies for the loss of the blog for a while there yesterday – we had a few technical problems and it was just not possible to keep the blog online throughout a hugely busy time for this site.
Also, it may take me till tomorrow afternoon to catch up and announce the winner of the Grand National Tipster competition – I hope you will bear with me.
Next, could we start using this thread as the final analysis point for the 2009 Grand National. I let the last post carry on longer than I should have (again!) really because of the strength of the postings but if we could all move on to here now that would be most appreciated. So, please, let us all know how you felt about GN 2009 on this thread.
Lastly, keep an eye out for Scottish and Irish Grand National threads starting up in the next few days as well as a thread for the 2010 Grand National. I hope you will all stay with us and tell all your friends next year so we continue to make this the biggest and best Grand National blog on the Internet. We really appreicate all your input – thanks very much and I hope you managed to show a profit in 2009.
Admin (Darren)
This post has 142 comments
#1
April 5th, 2009 09:35
Admin – something you might consider is creating a permanent blog topic for the discussion of EACH horse. Having a general discussion thread has proved difficult to navigate and locate pertinent information.
This might encourage bloggers to debate the chances of each runner on their merits and not simply put a red line through them because they fail on one or two long standing stats.
#2
April 5th, 2009 09:37
Reposting this from the old thread as it seems valuable
What a fool I have been. I posted this back in February…
“Stephen says:
February 18, 2009 at 9:40 PM
The stats I shall be using to narrow down the field come race day will be as follows (thanks to great work by everyone on this site)…
1. Age 8 to 12
2. Won 1+ Chases over 3m+
3. Run in 10+ Chases
4. Won a Class 2+ Chase
5. Won a Chase worth £17,000+
6. Weight no greater than 11lbs above bottom weight
7. Top 3 finish in a Class 1 Chase over 3m+
8. Top 3 finish in any of previous 3 runs
9. TS of 128+
10. RPR of 144+
11. Last run no greater than 50 days
12. Top 5 finish in Hennessy
OR Top 3 in Irish, Scots or Welsh National
OR Top 2 in a race over Aintree National fences
OR 3+ Chase wins at 3m+ (one being at 3m 4f+)
Maybe they should change the Christmas song to “The 12 trends of Aintree” ”
If I had indeed used those trends above once the field was known it would have left me with…
Rambling Minster
L’Ami
Cornish Sett
Silver Birch
Mon Mome
I think next year I WILL stick with the 12 Trends Of Aintree and see where it gets me.
#3
April 5th, 2009 09:45
Stephen, right on.
*The 2009 Grand National Winner*
MON MOME, 100-1, breaking FR bred 100 year stat.
aged 9. 61/61, age trend.
form; 218278
top 4 chase, top 3 hurdle this season, 42/42
won 1 of last 10 chases, 28/28
6 prep runs. 2-8 prep runs 27/27
days since last run, 20, 2-8 weeks 48/49, 2-7 weeks 27/27
weight,11-0, less than 11-4, 26/26, bottom half of handicap, 20/20
top 3 C1 chase, 24/24
won at 27f (won at 24f or more, 38/38)
placed at 30f (31/38 placed at 28f or more, 3 of the 7 didn’t race beyond 27f)
155 RPR, 144 or more 19/19
155 RPR left handed, 141 or more 19/19
career best RPR 155 posted this season
150 TS
Has won a C1/C2 chase worth 17K 16/16
3 career falls/ur, 2 or less 12/15
8th last time out, 7th or better 20/24
2nd in Welsh Nat,
A -top 5 Hennessey/top 3 Irish,Scots Welsh National/top 2 in race over GN fences/
B -3 wins at 24f including one at 28f or more – 30/30
(A is 16/19, 12/12)
100% trends met. Not a bad profile is it.
#4
April 5th, 2009 10:35
Systemsman, you’ve let no one down. We’re on this thread by the
way!
Systemsman says he can find the winner by Christmas and he has. Rascal,Brian and myself found it by Feb 10 …..
”This is basic and tenuous and needs much more work but my five by instinct at the moment are…. drum roll, drum roll…
1) Butlers Cabin
2) State of Play
3) Mon Mome
4) Cornish Sett
5) Southern Vic ”
on the same day I posted …
” Nothing to prove except their well being(think they meet most stats that people are looking at) between now and big day;
State Of Play, Mon Mome, Parsons Legacy, L’Ami, Cornish Sett ”
Brian posted thinking weight rise would be 5lb, actually rose 8lbs,
” Comply or Die
Hear the echo
My will
State of play
Mon mome
Butlers cabin
Parsons legacy
Cornish sett
Rambling minster
Garde Champetre
Kilbeggan Blade
Character Building
Himalayan trail ”
Only 3 horses appear on all those lists; State Of Play, Mon Mome and Cornish Sett.
I know there were hundreds of posts and I’ve picked out three but he was there/it’s good for morale/ we can find the 2010 winner early.
#5
April 5th, 2009 10:53
Mon Mome was in my list of 10 but, even forgetting the French thing and the fact he completed the national last yr, his recent form was dreadful. That’s probably why most of us ruled him out.
#6
April 5th, 2009 11:34
I must admit i never would have backed it in a hundred years. As it had 11 stone, french bred and had no form. Although i did think to myself ‘why is mon mome 100/1?’ I thought there must be something seriously wrong with the horse for it to be so unfancied and couldn’t see it beating some of the others. In fact i never would have backed any of the horses that finished. I wont be so blinded by stats next time.
I think you can rule out a few on trends etc but looking back, just stick with true distance horses with class and go with your instinct from there.
‘True vision comes from not being blinded by the obvious. The cream rises to the top as they say’.
Until next year chaps. Happy hunting.
#7
April 5th, 2009 11:45
Was really annoyed that I was unable to post yesterday lunchtime – I had a very strong tip from someone I trust for Don’t Push It (good 2nd to Denman as a Novice) – and I was unable to share it on this site
Still felt somewhat deflated after the National though can’t really argue with the form of the race when the first four all carried 11’0 or over and contained:
Previous winner
Previous Hennessy winner
Welsh National 2nd
Hennessy and Gold Cup 5th
Lessons from this year’s race – I placed a lot of emphasis on breeding this year – which turned out to be misplaced and also 100/1 meant that the price was ‘wrong’
Stripping out points awarded for breeding and price my shortlist (based on previous winner’s points threshold) for 2009 (in racecard order) would have read:
Black Apalachi
Mon Mome
L’Ami
Cornish Sett
Rambling Minster
Southern Vic
So it would have contained the winner and of course Rambo
As stated by Crisp & Systemsman – some decent long-term trends remain so looking forward to making amends next year
#8
April 5th, 2009 11:58
From an ante-post perspective I will use a similar points system to judge what previous winners had achieved by Xmas in their winning season and have another look on weights day
Then I’ll try to ignore this site until the week of the race
#9
April 5th, 2009 11:59
got caught up in rambo mania and had it all riding on him
had mon mome in my shortlist but scratched it cos it was french.
looking forward to the irish national thread
when are the next declarations etc for that?
#10
April 5th, 2009 13:00
Some pointers to the Irish National (haven’t checked them out – just found on another site)
- The weight trend here is very strong; only 1 of the last 10 winner carried more than 10-12 to victory while 28 of the 30 placed horses since 1999 have carried 11-0 or less.
- 8 of the last 9 winners have been rated between 125 and 136.
- 6yos and 7yos seriously out-perform older horses here; from 22% of the total runners since 1999, they’ve had 5 winners and 6 runners-up. Only 1 runner aged in double figures has placed since 2005.
- Of the last 9 winners to complete the course, none finished worse than seventh.
- Last year’s winner Hear The Echo was an extreme example of how lightly-raced have come to the fore here as he was having his first run since Christmas. The last 7 winners had no more than 2 outings since the turn of the year.
- Concentrate on unexposed handicappers as none of the last 10 winners had more than 8 runs in handicap chases.
#11
April 5th, 2009 13:06
I must admit to missing Mon Mome even though it fitted all basic stats.It was under 11 stone 5 pounds.It had won over 3 miles+.It was an experience chaser.It even ran in an hurdle race (recent trend).Why I’d left it out was not running in an establish trial race.I’ve forgotten it’s second to Halcon Genelardais in the 2006 Welsh National and thinking at the time it might win a Grand National.
#12
April 5th, 2009 13:44
we spoke so much about the FR stat having changed and being misleading and irrelevant now, I can’t beleive people applied it!
Breeding is still important to a degree and I would still use it after the longest standing stats! Strong Gale horses still don’t quite see it out the 36f GN trip but are great at 29f. Great runs from SV and HTE til 2 out.
I am sad to see what happened to HTE, I would be tempted as a jockey to PU when a horse is going backwards at the end of a marathon when you are not going to get a place you should put the horses future first! I now its a fine balance and you don’t know if you have pushed a horse too far, but its a horses life! jockeys should have more consideration and respect, when a horse has run its race and is not going to place why continue? if it could be a problem, esp if it may not get the trip?
Am I the only one how feels this?
how far down does place money go incidentally???
I was about the only one who forgave MMs downturn in form, but not enough!! should never have been read as NO form, but agree thought his early season form meant he had peaked, the midlands national with 11-12 I thought was too much weight over too far, so close to the GN. Ironically I backed him in that!!! no! as I thought this must mean he wasn’t going to aintree and like the horse. Why bother turning up to the main event! I wrote, shame, he’d be knackered. He finished and stayed on well for 8th I thought, but too much, a fair conclusion and this coupled with the fact that he’s ran in it UNplaced!!! twice before is mainly why he rocketed out to 100-1, would he even turn up, was something also wrong with him after that recent effort? no.
but happy to have backed Comply another fav of mine! and don’t begrudge the winner, disappointed but great race.
All ‘in the know’ experts would have concluded he was finished for the season and looked elsewhere. Hope people don’t stupidly put him down in history as another Foinavon, because 100-1, its insulting! He is a total national type come of age, a stayer! I’ve always liked the little chap and My Will, the nearly horse, didn’t back either this time
#13
April 5th, 2009 14:40
Good comments guys. We’ll fight them in high street, we’ll fight them on the exchanges …. and all that!
Cheers Pablo for pointers to Irish National.
KJ, 100-1 is insulting. A Welsh Nat 2nd, beat Star de Mohaison at Cheltenham before Christmas. He’s a very worthy GN winner, a lot better than all recent winners in my book, bar Hedgehunter (actually what did he beat, really), just my opinion. But all GN winners are heroes. And Mon Mome wasn’t a 10stoner who got lucky.
7lb higher mark than last year, only received 2lbs from State Of Play, 4lbs from My Will, 6lbs from Comply Or Die and gave them a true spanking.
Venetia Williams did say after the race that after he’d run his career best (in beating SDMA at Cheltenham) they were worried for him. So perhaps her achievement was the equal of a Mullins or a Mangan, keeping his OR down, once he’d shown what he could do, to keep competitive. All our own fault of course but if he’d stayed at 33/1 or less, may be a far reflection on his recent efforts, he would have been in our eyeline. I think some weird things happened in the last few days with the betting markets. But I think it prudent in an Eric Idle fashion to say no more.
Chin ups. 2010. It is more than likely that the winner will have ticked his ‘winner profile’ box after next December’s Welsh National( may be even after this years Irish/Scots National as Mon Mome, Comply Or Die, Silver Birch, Numbersixvalverde, Hedgehunter, Amberleigh House, Monty’s Pass, Papillon, Bobbyjo, Earth Summit, 10/12, had all ticked the box before their winning season began) so keep an eye on the first 3 at Fairyhouse and Ayr.
Go back to your contsituencies, look through the last 3 seasons Hennessey / National/ Becher results, make notes and prepare for ‘National’ Government.
#14
April 5th, 2009 14:52
Sorry, I know I’m hogging.
Pablo that six is the kind of six we should have been looking for!
KJ, that number 23? Liam Treadwell is 23 and the last 100-1 winner who was of course Foinavon won because of mayhem at the 23rd fence. Hey, I know there is a coincidence in everything if you look but what the hell!
#15
April 5th, 2009 15:04
Have got my ratings sorted to exclude breeding & price.
Over the last 11 years the winner has been in the top 3 (haven’t studied before then)
Bobbyjo – 3rd (3 horses qualified)
Papillon – 1st (3 horses qualified)
Red Marauder – 1st (5 horses qualified)
Bindaree – Joint 3rd (4 horses qualified)
Monty’s Pass – Joint 1st (3 horses qualified)
Amberleigh House – Joint 3rd (5 horses qualified)
Hedgehunter – 2nd (3 horses qualified)
Numbersixvalverde – 1st (6 horses qualified)
Silver Birch – Joint 2nd (3 horses qualified)
Comply Or Die – 1st (3 horses qualified)
Mon Mome – Joint 2nd (3 horses qualified)
Criteria:
Weight
Age
Last time out
Runs
Days since last run
RPR season
RPR best
When RPR best
RPR best – OR for Grand National
Number of chase wins 3m+
Furthest win
Class
Key Race
Chase falls
Hurdle run
Cheltenham festival
I’m going to stick with system and ensure that I cover the top 3 (or any joint 3rd) before the off in 2010 – regardless of price, Strong Gale, recent form etc
Normally 3 horses – one year it was 6
#16
April 5th, 2009 15:18
Just had a look at prices for 2010 25/1 for BA (who was running well until he fell) and a few others. And we will have the same old Denman will he wont he issue!!
Never mind we have refined the trends (see posts) and can now find the winner. A placed(1/2/3) in Class 1 Chase is a must for me.
#17
April 5th, 2009 15:22
Indeed to all the above Crisp,
he was just clouding my view to MM as they were so similar 3rd time frenchies!
Like I said on previous thread wish I’d just backed all of my lucky double first letter theory, only 3 of them in end, only 5 in jan when MM was firmly in my top8. if I’d combined these and your longest standing list, I would have got it, albeit at 33′s!
was worried that L’Ami was no.23 yesterday
Agreed, I am going to look at other seasons big ones, make a list, then post welsh nat important list in january!! weights day has to be considered but if its like this year ie. the irish not slipping the net, relatively high weights for classy types is more possible.
Pablo, MM didn’t top7 last time out so have you extended this?
think strong gale still relevant, as after thought; 2 involved fell away near end, although it seems risky, horses always go past them in the end at this kinda distance.
#18
April 5th, 2009 15:23
I’ve found a couple of old posts of mine which make interesting reading. They don’t exactly cover me in glory as I stated that Mon Mome wouldn’t win, but some of it was correct! Luckily I did back it in the end as is my second favourite horse and so made a healthy profit whilst watching the race in Hooters (recommended!). I’m not as happy as I should be thugh as this is the first time in countless years that the winner hasn’t been in the top 6 of my points based spreadsheet!!
speedyseagull says:
February 23, 2009 at 11:36 PM
Can I please stress that, if the only reason any of you are refraining from backing Mon Mome is because it finished 10th last year, you should maybe reconsider.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not backing Mon Mome as I don’t think it will win – I see it as being pretty one paced. However, I did back it last year and it was creeping into contention nicely until being badly hampered by Butler’s Cabin’s fall. It lost all rhythm after that and never got back into it.
Just to through that in there. As I say, I don’t think it will win but if any of you are keen e/w punters then you could do worse. Maybe smallish stakes though.
speedyseagull says:
March 2, 2009 at 8:26 PM
Lough Derg – L’Ami has also come up on my radar a couple of times and so I’ve followed your lead and watched National again. No doubt he was hampered but so too was Mon Mome last year. In fact Mon Mome was hampered 3 times: by Butlers Cabin falling at Bechers (badly hampered), by Knowhere’s shocking attempt at jumping Valentines and by another horse somewhere along the line (but that last one was only a minor hamperage).
Despite the above, I generally agree with the comments about unplaced horses coming back for another bite of the cherry and failing. I don’t think L’Ami or Mon Mome will win, and the same goes for Cornish Sett. One of them may get placed but that’s about it. If I was betting one of them e/w, I would go for Mon Mome.
#19
April 5th, 2009 15:28
That hurt yesterday. I actually backed Mon Mome in the race last year but ruled him out this time on account that a) he didn’t seem to stay last year, b) was running off a higher mark than last year and didn’t appear to be well handicapped c) form very much in-and-out this season and d) had a hard slog in the mud under 11-12 just 3 weeks ago.
I hope someone on here made some money on the race. I know Rambo was badly hampered a couple of times but he was a bitter disappointment.
#20
April 5th, 2009 15:30
crisp 73 great trends along with Stephens work and my revised Pre-Christams trends (will post next)- we will find that winner. Thanks – gone into my GN Black Book.
#21
April 5th, 2009 15:34
BA will get even more weight next year, even though he has fallen here twice! don’t you think? I backed him after his win over the fences in november, but my further reviews of his style of jumping and falling, led me to believe he has a tendancy to go a bit steep in landing, so it was no suprise to me that it happened at beachers brook and the fact that he was going so well, TOO well also left me with the feeling it was too good to last! didn’t even scream when it went
#22
April 5th, 2009 15:38
ground was not a problem though was it! for BA as a couple of us thought, he can do good and soft.
#23
April 5th, 2009 15:42
Pablo, MM didn’t top7 last time out so have you extended this?
Top 7 get 2 points, 8th and 9th get one point
Generally 2 points meets a trend or pattern and 1 point for being close
#24
April 5th, 2009 15:44
In a Morecambe and Wise style, ive backed the last two national winners….just not necessarily in the right National!!
This might cheer a few people up. Spoke to a friend of mine this morning, asking him if he had any luck yesterday.
“No” he replies “Only had Comply or Die in my office sweep, didnt bother having a bet”
“Shame you didnt have him last year!” I said.
“Yeah indeed. Do you know whats funny”
“What?”
“I had Mon Mome last year!!!”
Ive been laughing about it since!!
#25
April 5th, 2009 15:50
My revised Pre-Christmas winners trends. This should give you a short list at Christmas for a big price and a good chance it includes the winner (use the other trends above on this site to confirm nearer the GN date).
All past 10-12 winners had all these trends (by 19th Feb 9 for trend 4 only, and trend 6 by 15th Jan only).
1. OR 136 to 148 (11/12 trend) but add 2pts for a safety margin and check between OR136 and OR150 for your first short list
2. RPR rating 144minimum (10/11, 11 from 11 by 15th Jan)
3. Won case value £17,000 or more (12/12)
4. 3 Chase wins (any type) or more (10/11, 11/11 by 19th Feb)
5. Age 8 to 12 (13/13)
6. Completed in 10 Chases (10/11, 11/11 by 15th Jan)
7. Won over 24f or more (12/12, 10/12 at 25f or more)
8. Won Class 1 or 2 Chase-any type (12/12)
9. TS rating minimum of 111 (13/13, TS 128 or more 8/12)
Trend 1 if the only change from this year.
Also required by GN day (they may be pre-christmas but have not checked yet – work to do soon)
a. Placed (1/2/3) in Class 1 Chase at 24f or more – any time.
b. Top 5 finish in Hennessy
OR Top 3 in Irish, Scots or Welsh National
OR Top 2 in a race over Aintree National fences
OR 3+ Chase wins at 24f or more (one being at 28f or more).
c. top 4 chase, top 3 hurdle this season, 42/42
You may wish to use others but these are mine for filtering the short list down to a managable level.
#26
April 5th, 2009 15:52
Still think there’s a huge difference in a staying chaser between the age of 8 and 9; that extra year really does make a difference, and an 8 year old that finishes down the field one year may have the extra maturity to stay the distance. The Strong Gale horses [eg Southern Vic, Darkness] didn’t see out the trip.But above all the ride that Liam gave the horse was phenomenal; it was perfection [reminded me of Longshanks the other year; inside route, perfect jumping].And he was a completely fresh horse afterwards; perhaps down to Venetias way of training; always turns them out because she thinks it’s wrong for a horse to be kept in it’s box day after day [hard work for the staff]. All credit to horse, trainer and jockey.
#27
April 5th, 2009 15:52
systems i think the OR may go next year, think the GN could well be Denman’s target and therefore a lot of class horses will be in the mix
#28
April 5th, 2009 16:20
My best post in 2009 and the one I am proudest off – I will take it away as a consolation and peace of mind:
“Systemsman says:
April 1, 2009 at 10:28 AM
…. The French think i never bought into – so poor old Wacky – i start with Butlers Cabin as my NO 2 (French) and end up with L’Ami as my joint No 2 (French!!)- its going to happen one day you just know it is – maybe not this year but some time soon”.
Shame I didnt get the rignt French one though!!
For what its worth I’am already keen to get stuck into 2010, only 363 days to go from tomorrow!
#29
April 5th, 2009 16:51
“TC says:
April 5, 2009 at 3:52 PM
systems i think the OR may go next year, think the GN could well be Denman’s target and therefore a lot of class horses will be in the mix”
Reply:
Happy to take Denman on anytime if he’s top weight but will he ever run in the GN – agreed its more likely next year than at any time)?
I take your point about claas horses if Denman runs (IF) but am happy with OR 136 to OR 150 for the first short list.
#30
April 5th, 2009 17:02
Got any early fancies systems?
i’ve drawn up about 15 so far, i think offshore account will go close, should know more after Irish and scots national
#31
April 5th, 2009 17:23
Admin – I sometimes wonder if anyone takes any notice, but please can you consider putting up a separate thread for each horse next year?
Think how convenient it would be now to go to the Mon Mome thread and find all of the discussion in one place.
#32
April 5th, 2009 17:32
Systemsman. The C1 chase over 3 miles or further is a pre christmas trend 20/20. In fact, they have all met the trend in the season prior to their national win.
#33
April 5th, 2009 17:38
Hi, Just realised this should have been on this thread.
Showlad says:
April 5, 2009 at 11:55 AM
Good Morning all, on the morning after the day that was.
Firstly let me say that for the general member of the public yesterday was a great reace – full of excitement and I can never remember a National with so many with a chance at the last. To suggest a poor race because we, in the main, got our top selections wrong is utter folly.
Also I have one HUGE point to make – if we bury heads in the sand as if yesterday’s result was a blip and all will be fine next year – “it’s business as usual” – then it is UTTERLY DISASTROUS and means we have learnt NOTHING.
I think we have learned a CRUCIAL need to adopt CORE trends and then have optional add ons SEPARATELY, that we can stylise INDIVIDUALLY.
How many of us rated Mon Mome, but were put off by such stats as French bred and the Odds etc etc etc?
These 2 stats for me have never and NEVER will be CORE STATS.
C’mon we got Silver Birch as a lesson ONLY 2 YEARS AGO – though I did thank God win on him too because I REFUSED to discount him because of his odds)have never and NEVER will be CORE STATS.
I did well yesterday, through my regard of Mon Mome on my core stats and my belief that a National placer can never be discounted wholly. Recent poor form and hugely drifting odds on betfair made me think there was possibly current trouble at mill and I didn’t fill up my boots latterly on the horse. However, I rated him his as between a definite to saver must bet. His previous Welsh nat 2nd and early season form had him right up there for me. Subsequently his poor form then relegated him for me to same status as Cornish Sett: Demands respect but not my first tier of choices. I didn’t top up late huge odds, not because the odds put me off but I was afraid that the inexplicable huge drift on betfair signalled trouble or possible NR. At the same time I resisted taking a top quarter or so off my bet on him to lay, as I deemed the poor return for the lay not nearly enough for still a possible winner.
So for me it was a case of a decent/saver bet coming to my rescue – as like most of you my top tier selections had gone t*** up (I bet this year on win only).
I am SO sorry for those who suffered a big financial loss.
For this year we MUST learn from how, collectively, we did not have a Welsh National runner-up displaying great early season form in AT LEAST a saver/can’t-be-discounted reserve bet list.
But PLEASE let’s learn. We MUST!! Please no “well that’s why that happened this year, a one-off!, now back to normal analysing as usual” etc etc – NO!
For me if we can – and I KNOW we can, let’s work on together creating, as I say, A KEY STATS consensus, which does not take into our own particulart thoughts on breeding, odds, blinkers etc.
I TRULY TRULY believe we will learn and be even bigger winners if like all GREAT animals in the evolution chain – WE CHANGE, ADAPT and therefore become STRONGER and WISER.
#34
April 5th, 2009 17:39
..And this:
Showlad says:
April 5, 2009 at 12:12 PM
Thanks…
Now some of you will know my Dad was a big fan of this site and got all the info filtered through myself. The beloved man passed away before Christmas and I would really like to thank you all for the wonderful friendship, laughs and gripping reading on this site this year, that keep me going through some difficult times.
I hate to mention any names, so if you’re not below – you KNOW you are just as important to me.
Wacky for your wonderful humour and great distinctive views (and cheek!).
Crisps great stats and what a laugh.
KJ you are a one-off but what can I say ha ha…
Silver Birch, Daniel, Pablo great stats guys.
Brian you are so funny.
Brody our ‘lil devil’s advocate (we need one).
Rascal for being rascalish.
Maureen a fresh off the cuff breath of fresh air.
Speedyseagull really unusual and great research.
Systemsman wonderful reasearch and although you may rub me up the wrong way sometimes lol, never doubt that your work andvery presence is highly valued.
Stayer an acquired taste but I’ll have a double!
Stephen – great guy – loved that Rudyard post!
Logh and Whitearab our ‘lil fighters lol.
To ALL OF YOU thanks so much.
Let’s make this a little community and now go forward with NEVER DONE BEFORE research on the Scottish and Irish Nats – let’s claw a little pennies and respect back, ye?
Scottish a week on Sat – Admin please post up a thread – let’s bounce back!
I also hope admin put up a ‘checking in/keeping in touch’ thread today/tomorrow to encourage us all to keep in touch.
Shall we have a little meet up day one time?
To all of you dreading losing this wonderful contact then let’s not – let’s keep checking in
Thanks to admin who make it all possible.
Best, Showlad
#35
April 5th, 2009 17:42
More ammunition to help nail the winner next year:
1. BEST RPR SHOULD BE ABOVE OR
All winners since Seagram (RPR not available before that) have had a best chase RPR at least 5 lbs better than their GN OR
Mon Mome was RPR 155 OR 148 = 7 lbs higher
(Looking through his statistics I cannot believe why I thought he was badly handicapped!)
GN is a handicap after all and a horse needs to have a few lbs in hand
So a horse rated 145 should have an RPR of 150+
The majority of the horses will meet this criteria but here’s a list of those that didn’t this year (in racecard order) – some interesting runners
Comply Or Die: 4
Stan: 4
Silver Birch: 2
Butler´s Cabin: 0
Golden Flight: 1
Fleet Street: 3
Musica Bella: 0
Can’t Buy Time: 3
Kilbeggan Blade: 4
Brooklyn Brownie: 3
2. BEST RPR SHOULD BE RECENT or IN A TOP RACE
All winners achieved their best chase RPR during the season of their win except the following who all posted their best in a very competitive race:
Royal Athlete – 163 1 year and 2 years before (Cheltenham handicap & Gold Cup)
Bobbyjo – 153 in Irish Grand National season before
Papillon – 164 in Irish Grand National two seasons before
Hedgehunter – 156 in Thyestes season before (but did 150 winning Bobbyjo Chase a few weeks before GN victory)
#36
April 5th, 2009 17:49
completely agree Maureen, Darkness didn’t jump several either suprise, suprise… not! it is right to rule out dodgey jumpers with these fences.
In contrast SV jumping seemed to be sorted from what I saw of him if only for one race, didn’t stay! Really would like to have seen if Ruby could have made a difference, don’t think My Will would’ve done as well without him, as the horse did not adapt his jumping height wise! (not too clever of the horse) lucky horse has a straight jumping style.
Another thing you can’t deny, Ruby is a safe bet! he is the best!
Oedipe you are right about seperate threads about each horse, but we could loose the continuity of conciousness, talking about things in relation to each other, if you know what I mean! although that can be unhelpful too, this one beat that one then that beat this..
but yes we do need it!
Speedy said he found something he wrote about MM on the 23rd!!! feb, but agreed getting to the right thread! and right page even if you know when abouts it was, its too lengthy and frustrating.
#37
April 5th, 2009 18:56
Just a quick question can you confirm is it top 5 in the Hennessy held at Kempton and does it have to be in the current season or previous year or years.
I am intrigued now re these stats and trends .
Thanks guys for the fantastic site keep it up and are you going to have any more trends for the big races and festivals during the year in both national hunt and flat????
#38
April 5th, 2009 19:07
The Hennessy is held at Newbury, late November / early December.
#39
April 5th, 2009 19:08
Hopefully, anyone got stats for scot and irish nat, i’ve only got very basic ones for irish which has eliminated half the field
#40
April 5th, 2009 19:25
Having looked quickly towards feb 23! where speedy said he found MM on list, it seems this is near the beginning of a thread!!!
WHICH WOULD TAKE FOREVER TO FIND
- admin we need easier access and much shorter threads from now on, please!
lookked at last couple of pages on this years ante post thread, around 10 feb as easily accessable! and using the F3 button put in Mon MOme, F3 next appearance F3 next.. you know? and sure enough he is on my shortlist, Brians, Crisps, Rascals…. we all just thought he had too hard a season and hard race before would rule him out. The hard race at or around cheltenham theory is totally unreliable.
#41
April 5th, 2009 19:34
Yep, it did take me ages to find!!
Time to look at Scottish National! Are there any seperate threads for either this or Irish National?
#42
April 5th, 2009 20:00
“TC says:
April 5, 2009 at 5:02 PM
Got any early fancies systems?
i’ve drawn up about 15 so far, i think offshore account will go close, should know more after Irish and scots national”
Reply
As a preparation exercise for GN 2010 just list the first three in the:
Welsh National
Scots National
Irish National
Grand National
Becher Chase (top 2) and any big race over Grand National fences (top 2)
Hennessey (in November – top 5)
Only include a “runner to watch/short list” if it obtains a RPR of 144 or more in the past or between now and GN day 2010 (a TS of 128 or better would be a near essential with TS 111 absolute minimum).
For
2009 (you may need to wait for this (ie. Welsh National Dec 2009)
2008
2007
Only include a runner in the “runners to watch/short list” if is has a RPR of 144 (in a chase)or better and a near essential of a TS 128 (in a chase)or better (with TS 111 as a absoulte essential minimum)at anytime in the past or future up to GN day 2010.
Only include a runner if placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd in a Class 1 chase (this was confirmed beyond doubt this year)- anytime past or up to GN day 2010. A 1st, 2nd or 3rd in a Chase next session sometime is also essential.
And keep the list for your first attempt at a short list at Christmas 2009(or read my posting on this site around 17th December 2009 – my first bets will be made just before Christmas!!). Recheck on “weights day” and often thereafter (its like a cake recipe is it not?).
Also check out the key long term trends listed above this post (Stephen post 2, crisp 73 post 3, Systemsman post 25 etc)they are vey good and will help shorten your longer short list at any time.
#43
April 5th, 2009 20:11
” Daniel Edwards says:
April 5, 2009 at 5:32 PM
Systemsman. The C1 chase over 3 miles or further is a pre christmas trend 20/20. In fact, they have all met the trend in the season prior to their national win”
Thank you Daniel – saved me laods of work. So we can now add it to the “must have” by Christmas trends for the GN winner.
Amendment to post 25:
10. Must have placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd in Class 1 chase by Dec 31st in the GN winning year (i.e. by Dec 31st 2009 for GN 2010)
Daniel you did mean placed rather than win in a Claas 1 chase I take it?
#44
April 5th, 2009 20:25
“Pablo says:
April 5, 2009 at 5:42 PM post 35″
Wonderful fresh new work – so very useful.It was a delight to read and so hopeful at this time. Thank you – I will use it.
Yes we need to learn, adapt and evolve just like Showlad suggests (its like science fiction are we ceating some sort of unified “Super Brain”!!! – love it).
God I need some help with that Scots National – tried last year and got it all wrong (but like this years GN only just missed the winner on my short list).
#45
April 5th, 2009 20:43
ADMIN: Can you please open up 2 new threads tomorrow for both the Scottish and Irish Grand Nationals. Thanks
Guys Yes lots of research needing done, both are VERY different animals and also very different the GN.
Good exercise for our tipster brains though – as Systemsman echoes YES WE CAN!!
#46
April 5th, 2009 21:03
Didn’t know this Hear The Echo died…?
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/09/04/04/manual_191739.html
Davy Russell (Hear The Echo, collapsed on run-in): “Very sadly the horse died.”
Great horse , if so, rest in peace.
#47
April 5th, 2009 21:33
hi all
we all know it was a freak result and i as others got my fingers burned but if you backed the top 6 in the betting you would have had 2, 3,4 similar to last year as well, how often does this happen
is it a pattern that you can top up on the day
#48
April 5th, 2009 21:52
I’m still trying to find some sort of quote from Rambos’ connections as to why he pulled up; was he so far behind that when he was hampered it wasn’t worth continuing; was he injured by the fallen horse [there were legs everywhere]; did he [my personal opinion] just not take to the fences at all.Hate to say this, but was the jockey a bit nervous and inexperienced? Did the false starts affect him? They usually have quotes from the jockeys after the race but I haven’t found anything anywhere.[Showlad, I know what you mean; I've immersed myself in this race even more than usual because I lost a dear friend at Christmas; racing is a wonderful community, the best in the world, especially when times aren't so good].
#49
April 5th, 2009 22:11
Can anyone out there help me
I have stupidly organised a sweepstale for the office which includes one of the prizes being the correct choice for the LAST horse who successfully cleared the first fence…. have watched it numerous times and can’t see …. is there anywhere that I can find out or does anyone know ?????
#50
April 5th, 2009 23:49
Just have to say I had GREAT fun again this year with the G.N. blog almist to the point of obsession. Like many I deleted the winner ‘though he had a lot going for him he had too many negatives. That’s the Frech bred stat broken after 100 plus years. Yes, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.
#51
April 6th, 2009 01:18
The Discussion about Denman,First I don’t think the connections will ever risk him in the National,reputation of horses diing.If the likes of Denman was entered again surly this is a great lay bet if you’re on the Exchanges.
Secondly be placed in a top class race.Winning form is the best form as they say and I agree but how many lengths would you allow for the second and third etc.
Thirdly pro and cons for individual blogs for each horse.Pro you know where to look for each horse.Con at the weights in feb the was 123 runners who going to look up every animal and could get mixed up cross referencing said animals.
Sorry about Hear The Echo.Every year win or lose I want a casualty free national almost every year I ear of One or Two.
I know this differs for each horse,Pablo, but how long should the last run be before National(roughly).
#52
April 6th, 2009 03:47
To crisp 73
Yes, M.M. had a 50% strike rate. With C.O.D. and M.M. that is now 15/19 . I should get stuck in about that but I won’t. Over the last few weeks you did your best, you mentioned the strike rate fact 3 or 4 times to deaf ears, no one wanted to know – a voice crying in the wilderness.
The biggest sin this year is not the fact that we picked a donkey on the 14th of Feb. as our no.1 horse but the fact that no one wanted to hear anything bad about him.
Remember Systemsman held back a post because he thought it would be unpopular at the time and you said no, no Systemsman, post, post. Once he crossed over we were lost.
My advise ( which I will take myself ) for next year is, do not be afraid to give your honest opinion on any horse, be it right or wrong, even if you think it will be unpopular. This should not be a popularity contest, it’s about using every stat, trend, fact and some balance to find the G.N. winner.
#53
April 6th, 2009 07:58
I admit that I was completely taken in by Rambo’s Haydock performance and ended up with too much subjective prejudice clouding the statistical analysis.
So what to take from that?
A horse needs to be prepared for the National and the majority of winners have shown us one clue in their winning season that they are capable of good form on the day – this doesn’t have to be in their final prep race. TOO MUCH ANALYSIS OF FINAL PREP RACES – top 8 is sufficient now.
Some form in a top-class race (or over National fences) is also a must for 11 and 12 year olds – consider the records of the 11+ brigade to have won the race since 1990 (from what I can gather from RP):
Mr Frisk: 3rd Hennessy twice
Seagram: 3rd Racing Post Chase to Desert Orchid
Miinnehoma: Won SunAlliance Chase; 3rd Welsh National
Royal Athlete: 3rd in Gold Cup
Red Marauder: 5th in Hennessy
Amberleigh House: Won Becher Chase; 3rd in GN
On reflection Rambling Minster was nowhere near that level of form.
However because Rambo was so highly thought of other lesser horses also came into the equation – Brooklyn Brownie & Kilbeggan Blade. This type of horse is very unlikely to ever win the National – simply not good enough. Not collateral form with Snoopy Loopy over summer jumps or a win in the London National but top-class form is required.
Since Mr Frisk in 1990 Lord Gyllene was the last not to have top 3 in GN, Irish, Welsh or Scottish or top 2 in Topham or Becher or top 3 Racing Post Chase or top 5 Gold Cup or Hennessy – he had top 2 in Midlands National
So if we add Midlands National to the key races then 3*24f+ inc. 1*28f is perhaps no longer applicable.
It would certainly put the likes of RM, BB & KB lower down the pecking order in future.
Which all means finding the winner should not be that difficult!
#54
April 6th, 2009 08:40
I think we should remember that Rambling Minster was not properly tested over the course and probably never will be. He clearly didn’t settle – but there was only ever going to be one way to find out. Some horses show their best on certain courses or certain occasions.
I would have been more disappointed if Rambling Minster’s jumping was ultimately exposed as poor or that he lacked the stamina we all thought he had and was found wanting with a mile to go.
Like you Pablo, my two reservations were always that he lacked experience over the Aintree fences and that he did not have form or experience in a big race. I didn’t see these niggles as reasons to strike him off my list though. Far from it. He looked so strong in other respects.
Overall, we have been critical of fancied horses and also of some of our trends systems. Next year, however, I suspect there will be even more scrutiny and challenge which is no bad thing.
Saturday’s race only proved one thing – that Rambo didn’t like Aintree, not that he wasn’t good enough in theory to win the Grand National.
This is what I wrote a few weeks ago and I still think it’s the case.
Johnny Valentine says:
February 20, 2009 at 12:16 AM
Stats are really important and they have led me to my only bet so far – RAMBLING MINSTER. He looks outstanding.
In fact it’s difficult to make a case against him without sounding petty. Perhaps it would have been reassuring to see a bit of form in a Welsh National or Hennessy? Maybe a spin over the Aintree fences in the Becher Chase? Apart from that he’s surely an identikit Grand National winner.
#55
April 6th, 2009 08:57
With regards Rambo, he met the trouble in running that you can easily get when you hold up a horse in the National, as did Parson’s Legacy. Rambo was badly hampered a couple of times and even after the first time you could see him thinking “this really isn’t for me.” I heard Keith Reveley state that the horse would race more prominently in the National but for whatever reason he didn’t ever get near the front.
#56
April 6th, 2009 08:58
Agree – even with the benefit og hindsight it would have been hard not to have had Rambo in your short-list – although perhaps we should learn not to put a horse so far out at number 1 without it having some top-class form
#57
April 6th, 2009 09:11
Hi all, just wanted to say a quick thank you for everyone’s comments in the run-up to this year’s big race. It’s been interesting, informative and, most importantly, entertaining – if not profitable.
Somehow or other, despite backing about a quarter of the field I didn’t even manage a place (did lay most of them off to leave me not looking at a big loss). The final comedy nail in the coffin was that I had Mon Mome and Arteea in the office sweepstake and, when I pulled them out, asked if I could swap them! And then they both go and finish better than all my selections! Ah well, at least I got some money back somehow!
Roll on 2010 – we’ll all be on the winner then!
#58
April 6th, 2009 09:59
Lieutenant Showlad checking in….SIR!!
57 posts since the Big Day – we are bouncing back
Let’s move on with our Key Core Stats assembling and also to keep focused to LEARN from Saturday and not SHIFT BLAME.
Phil Smith posts yesterday (Hi Phil)”We all know it was a freak result”. NO. We all let a Welsh National runner-up, season winning and placed, stats fitting horse go under the radar – FACT.
If we don’t start at THIS POINT we will end up getting lead up the Aintree Garden Path ONCE AGIAN in 363 days (who’s counting!).
Re Big Race credentials I think Scots, irish and WElshNats should be included to Top 4. Do we need/shiould we re;lly cater to Top 5 in Hennessey – why should it receive special treatment? I think Top 4 in the regional Grand Nationals though is a must.
#59
April 6th, 2009 10:01
GN HQ (ADMIN): Please put up Irish and Scots thread today to keep team morale and momemtum up. SIR!!
#60
April 6th, 2009 10:09
Well to be honest even though i had Mon Mome on my shortlist back in February i have to say i wouldn’t of backed it even if everyone else said he was the best bet.
I did have a good look at the horse and i think i even asked what others on here though of it, but after some deep thought i ruled him out as i just thought what has he shown that has made him better than last year. (think someone on here also pointed that out as well, but there too many posts to look back through to find out who it was).
What i will say is that i am pleases it won as it will save me a lot of time and effort sticking up for the french. I couldn’t of fought there case any harder this year so in that respect i am a little pleased for it as now we can all move on and get over it and please dont replace it with another stat like well instead of the french lets swap it with the welsh.
Im not saying this to rub anyones nose in it or to say see i was right all along i just want us to learn and move on.
For finicial purposes i was really pleased to see SoP did get a place (Welsh as well
) as it just and so covered my bets.
What can i learn for next year: Im not sure there is anything to learn,
100-1 winner, I never bought into the odds theory anyways (see my comments regarding Silverbirch).
French bred winner, enough said already i think.
And as for it not finishing in the top 7 last time out, It finished 8th and was less than a length away from 7th but who in turn was 38 lengths from 6th so looking back would you really of put money on it if had finished 1 length closer. Not a realiable stat as some horses will only be entered into a race with 5 or 6 runners for the final prep race so it cant be reliable.
Systemsman if you feel you have let us down then don’t we are all grown adults (or i hope we are, gambling is bad kids dont do it) and can make our own mind up.
Prior to christmas you had it in your list and thats before we knew confirmed entries so if that isnt good going then i dont know what is.
Then some others reconfirmed his placing in your list in Febraury.
We all (or the majority) ruled him out on our own individual basis so there is no need to feel like you have let any of us down.
#61
April 6th, 2009 10:20
All,
The Scottish and Irish National threads will go up later today.
Thanks
#62
April 6th, 2009 10:26
With Mon Mome i think this is the case with most of us…….
Yes he might have been on some of our lists early doors.
Yes he does boast some good long distance form like the welsh national.
Yes he did meet all current trends/stats.
But with his last 3 runs being very poor, and his odds being 100/1, and for the last 2 weeks before the big day him drifting like a barge on bet fair, traded around 179/1 (i thought he was going to be a non runner) and yes on this basis i think we were all right to discount.
I guess he is the one that got away…..after all we cannot back them all.
#63
April 6th, 2009 11:11
Totally agree with your comments Puzzled.
Only differenec I would say was he merited a ‘saver bet’.
We recommended MANY saver bets throughout our campaign and he should have been one of them.
Totally with you on odds hugely drifting – I too thought trouble at mill and didn’t go past my saver bet.
Next year though guys horses like Mon Mome that start out meeting the stats – we CANNOT then let them be omitted and quietly (and dangerously) drift into the background. He met the stats, he had won and placed this season, he was a Welsh Nat runner -up.
Somehow me thinks and hopes and prays that nothing like this will escape us ever again.
#64
April 6th, 2009 11:11
Thanks Admin for new threads
#65
April 6th, 2009 11:13
At odds of 179/1 I think you could afford to back them all!
#66
April 6th, 2009 13:09
Fair play to Mon Mome and a French Bred winner to boot. I for one tend to ignore French Breds pretty much regardless and so have to think differently in future.
But let’s face it, Mon Mome never looked like he was laid out for the race. I would not want to be unkind and say it was a fluke but the facts are, in his last two runs (the latest just 3 weeks before the National) – he was beaten a distance and tailed off at Uttoxeter over 4m 2f and thrashed 45 lengths by Rambling Minster over 3m 4f. That and the stable jockey getting off him to ride Stan explains why was a 100/1 shot on the day, when he had been a 33/1 at Christmas time.
Let’s face it, these shock results do happen now and again and I still very much believe that working together as we did this year, we will come up with the right shorlist more often than not. I was perversely pleased that the horse that won and I did not back – was not one I’d back even if I had the chance to back it in the race replay!
Cheers.
#67
April 6th, 2009 13:11
We have to remember as well that this has been a very unusual winter; a lot of horses have missed valuable work and possible prep races; one of the most fancied horses was pulled out almost at the last minute, the false starts must have had an effect on some horses. But the horse that most of us thought would win had gained that position by winning races where he raced up with the pace and had become a better horse for it; he then reverted back to being a hold up horse for the National. Maybe this was to do with the false starts, or having an inexperienced jockey. What I won’t change next year is that as soon as the weights come out I back every 9 year old with a decent weight that I think is definately being aimed at the National; this year it was Mon Mome..if only I’d stopped there and then!
#68
April 6th, 2009 14:08
To all those who feel let down after this years national take heart from a story of a friend of mine. He placed a £10 e/w bet on Cerium at 500/1 with Ladbrooks, the reason he bet on this apparently he liked the way the horse stood when he saw it on tv before the race. He said he could here a member of staff laughing as he left the bookies when he tried to collect his winnings. He believed all bookies paid out on 5 places think knowing you would have won £1,250 if only you had used a bookie paying on 5 places must really hurt
#69
April 6th, 2009 14:12
bobby jo – ouch! That’s gotta hurt. A good example of the difference between ignorance and dogma.
#70
April 6th, 2009 15:57
Racing Post domain has been grabbed!
Domain racingpost.com has been caught and registered in Dropped.pl, the first domain dropcatching service in Poland.
If you see this page instead of a website that has been previously under this domain, it means that the domain has not been renewed by the owner and has been caught. The domain has been registered for a Dropped.pl user.
How embarrassing!
#71
April 6th, 2009 16:03
Thanks to Pablo (great work)and others we can now say that the early prep work for the GN 2010 consists of:
“The Grand National Cake Recipe”
Make a note of:
1. Top 3 in THE GN
2. Top 3 in Irish National
3. Top 3 in Welsh National
4. Top 3 Scottish National
5. Top 2 in Topham Chase (Aintree)
6. Top 2 Becher Chase (Aintree)
7. Top 3 Racing Post Chase
8. Top 5 Gold Cup (Cheltenham)
9. Top 5 in Hennessy (Newbury November ish)
10.Top 2 in Midlands National
For
1999 (Welsh Nat is in Dec 2009 so you need to wait for some results)
1998
1997
(I think back beyond 1997 will be of little value by April 2010)
The winner should be in this homework list all being well and you can start now! Anyone got the info available so far let me know to save me hours of work.
Which gives us a 19/19 trend
Obviously nearer the date we want runners who also meet the main trends (must be placed in a Class 1 chase etc etc)and are ofcourse entered into the GN 2010!
I also love Pablo’s other new work – the GN winner will have a RPR 5pts higher or more than its GN OR [note - given on weights day] -(note mimimum RPR to win is RPR best of 144). See his post below (its so good I just have to repost it)
“Pablo says:
April 5, 2009 at 5:42 PM
More ammunition to help nail the winner next year:
1. BEST RPR SHOULD BE ABOVE OR
All winners since Seagram – 1991(RPR not available before that) have had a best chase RPR at least 5 lbs better than their GN OR
Mon Mome was RPR 155 OR 148 = 7 lbs higher”
So thats at least a 18/18 trend (could be longer we just dont have the RPR’s)
Love your work Pablo.
Looking good for 2010. We learn best from our mistakes not our successes!
#72
April 6th, 2009 16:07
Systemsman I have all the info you are after in a spreadsheet. Is there any way to PM on this site?
#73
April 6th, 2009 16:16
Just some explanations about the ‘Winner Profile’, thought it useful as we size up our next ascent of Mount National.
Winner Profile;
A) top 5 hennessey; top3 Irish, Scots, Welsh National; top 2 in race over GN fences
B) 3 chase wins at 24f or more including 1 at 28f or more
I wrote this profile, beginning after GN 08, after looking at what previous GN winners had done prior to victory at Aintree. I wanted to see if I could throw a ‘blanket’ over, say, the last 20 years, to cover each winner. I wanted some pointers in the right direction even if not quite ‘nailing’ down all criteria. I looked at what each winner had done and then cross referenced it with the others. So it’s top 5 in Hennessey because some GN winners have finished 5th in it and as it’s probably the classiest handicap distance chase a 5th in it is not a bad performance. Likewise the Topham or Becher is only top 2 because of the standard must have finished in the top 2.(For example Rough Quest and Bindaree didn’t finish in the top 2 in Topham but ran well in other profle races)
For future reference bloggers might want to, probably wisely, use ‘top 6′ and ‘top 4′ etc.
35/37(41/47) GN winners tick the winner profile box, A, more than once, or B or occasionally both. It’s worth remembering that the Hennessey only began in the late 1950′s and the Nationals weren’t that popular until the 1970′s so I think the profile has some good grounding.
The only two winners in the last 37 Nationals not to tick the box were Red Rum ’73, had ran unplaced in ’72 Scots National, and Lucius ’78, was third in last prep run in what now is Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock, and they both had won a handful of chases at 24f-27f.
I’ve used the profile races because I think not only do they ‘cover’ the GN winners but there is also some common sense why a GN winner would do well in them. They are all ‘classy’ races which British/Irish trainers run their good staying chasers in, they are on left handed tracks -apart from Irish Nat- they are all 27f or further apart from Topham and Becher which of course are run over GN fences which is obviously a pointer to GN. It came up this year on the blog that Monty’s Pass, for example, won the Kerry National at 24f and the Topham is only 22f. But would Monty have run in the GN if he’d made a horlicks of the fences in the Topham? Of course you could say that the fact he won the Kerry over 24f, chicken and the egg!, might have persuaded connections that he could get 36f but he did finish in the top 2 in a race over the GN fences, as have Team Spirit, L’escargot, Grittar, Amberleigh House and Silver Birch since 1964 so a top 2 finish is what I look for. The case was also made about other chases including the Racing Post Chase, which GN winners have won and placed in, but classy as it is it’s run at a right handed track at only 24f. A race to log but I cross reference it with profile races. Just my opinion.
So ‘B’ on the winner profile is 3 chase wins at 24f or more including 1 at 28f or more. Jay Trump, Highland Wedding, Well To Do, Hallo Dandy, West Tip, Seagram, Royal Athlete and Lord Gyllene are the winners from the past 47 GN’s who qualify on the ‘B’ criteria of the profile. Jay Trump won the top staying chases in the USA; Highland Wedding won three Eiders and jumped round well unplaced in two previous GN’s; Well To Do won several long distance staying chases; Hallo Dandy finished 4th in ’83 GN on ground to soft for him and got his good going in ’84; West Tip was a Ritz Club chase Cheltenham Festival winner, unplaced in a Welsh National and jumped really well in ’85 GN before falling at 2nd Bechers; Seagram also won a chase at Cheltenham Festival as well as an unplaced in a Hennessey; Royal Athlete was third in a Gold Cup, fell in Irish Nat and in void GN; Lord Gyllene had won at 34f, twice placed in C1 chases and had OR of 149 in GN.
Food for thought. Pablo made a good point about criteria ‘B’. I personally think any horse in future who qualifies on ‘B’ will need to have performed on an OR of about 145 or more on good/ good to soft ground in good company. Rambling Minster had won a C1 well on an OR 143 in testing conditions. We had not seen him do well in this company on a decent racing service. But he did fit the stats this year, he ran a great race for the Reveleys at Haydock and hopefully for them and Rambo there will be a silver lining.
Finally, Silver Birch, you made a point during the blog about horses who have ran in a profile race but did not meet required ‘top5′ or ‘top3′.
Question- ‘Is the experience of running in these profile races important to a potential GN winner?’
Answer- Only 3 out of the last 38 National winners had not ran in one of the profile races. Lucius and Hallo Dandy had the same trainer, Gordon Richards, and Lord Gyllene only raced in this country for two seasons prior to his win.
Hope this is useful.
#74
April 6th, 2009 16:29
UPDATE ON RAMBO:
‘Minster done rambling for now’
5 hours ago
Rambling Minster is likely to be put away for the season after suffering minor cuts in the John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree on Saturday.
The well-backed 8-1 joint-second favourite was pulled up early on the second circuit after making a mistake and being badly hampered.
Trainer Keith Reveley said: “He’s got a couple of cuts on his back legs. He’s been poulticed over the weekend, but it’s nothing serious. He’s still a little bit stiff but he’s going to be fine in time and live to fight another day.”
He added: “I was thinking of the race at Sandown (Bet365 Gold Cup), but he’s still stiff and it wouldn’t be fair to bring him back for that one so it probably is it for the season and we’ll try again next year.
“He’ll be 12 next year so I’m not sure about the National, but there are plenty of nice staying handicap chases for him.”
Ungaro, Reveley’s other entry in the Bet365 Gold Cup, is also not a certain starter.
“I’m not sure if he’ll run. We may switch him back to hurdles, but we’ll see,” he added.
#75
April 6th, 2009 16:31
The RP ratings for the GN are on the site now. The winner judged to have run 15lbs above his racing mark of 148 (which is 2lbs higher than his OR and makes the achievement even more remarkable)
Full RPR and variance to racing mark for the 17 finishers.
Mon Mome 163 (+15 lbs)
Comply Or Die 158 (+4)
My Will 155 (+3)
State Of Play 149 (-1)
Cerium 137 (-2)
Big Fella Thanks 144 (-5)
Butler’s Cabin 140 (-7)
Southern Vic 135 (-8)
Snowy Morning 144 (-12)
Arteaa 119 (-20)
Irish Invader 119 (-24)
Idle Talk 112 (-27)
Darkness 113 (-30)
Priests Leap 100 (-53)
Offshore Account 73 (-74)
Battlecry 59 (-85)
Cornish Sett 31 (-113)
#76
April 6th, 2009 16:43
Mon Mome
Trainer: Venetia Williams
Age: 9
Weight: 11-0
Off Rating: 146 Chase Runs: 24
Runs over GN Fences: 1
Wins over 3m+: 4
Wins over 4m+: 0 Form: 18278
Wins/Races: 1/6
Prize Money: 70,000
Falls: 0
Since Last Run: 20 Biggest Chase Win: 57,000
Prize Money: 182,000
Falls: 3
We really missed a trick this yr with Mon Mome -got too carried away with RM, and also with the softer trends (well I did anyway!).
Mon Mome comes out in a list of 9 horses using this very site’s predictor tool, based on the well known trends, eg age, weight, etc. Mon Mome was also in my top 10 in my GN spreadsheet, but I guess we had to find ways of narrowing down to 5 or 6 somehow. Maybe the answer is to spread my bets more next yr and get in even earlier and grab the big prices! Could have had a few quid on all 9 of those, rather than wade in on one animal.
I AGREE NEXT YR WE MUST HAVE (PLEASE ADMIN) A DEDICATED THREAD FOR INDIVIDUAL HORSES. WILL MAKE THINGS EASIER TO DIGEST.
And we should listen more to critiques of the leading fancies.
#77
April 6th, 2009 16:52
I’ll echo those sentiments Stats Man.
#78
April 6th, 2009 16:56
One of my quirky trends I like to look at is the form figures for each horse. When you look at the figures for the last 10 winners, you see this:-
0P21
8242
4B443
24061
342P5
31364
53367
4552F
75493
80541
And Mon Mome had very similar figures, ie no more than 1 win.
Its uncanny how similar looking these form figures are at face value. Never more than 1 win, but lots of placed efforts or ‘nearly placed’
This is why I was a bit preturbed when Rambo had 2 wins in his most recent runs.
Don’t shoot me down – I just find it very interesting! Before the race I selected a few horses that looked like they had the right form figures, and of course Mon Mome was bang in there! Still ruled it out though:(
I appreciate this is not much better than talking numbers (ie No 23 and all that) but I will definitely be casting an eye on how the form figures look next yr. Maybe winning form means possible peaked too early???
#79
April 6th, 2009 17:02
I hear what you say Stats man but a cursory look at MM’s last two runs would have put most informed punters off backing him. It did not at all appear to me like his season was geared around winning the National!
#80
April 6th, 2009 17:22
Crisp and Systemsman, don’t we think the GN races (Aintree, Scots, Irish and Welsh) we should include that to Top 4 and why Top 5 Hennessy?
#81
April 6th, 2009 17:35
Just thought I let everyone know that Cerium finished with a fractured Skull. The jockey said he thought that it happened at the water when Zabenz fell and hit his horse.
#82
April 6th, 2009 17:58
Regarding evaluation of major GN trials such as the Irish/Welsh/Scots Nationals and Hennessy – rather than opt for a fixed number of finishers, would it not be more prudent to vary the number of finishers to include based upon their performance, e.g. a RPR of 130+
You might find, for example, that you get a high class finish one year, such as the 2005 Hennessy, when the first 4 home were the same first 4 in the previous season’s RSA Chase at Cheltenham.
#83
April 6th, 2009 18:26
Lots of trends being discussed and very valid indeed.Might just add to the pot with good form in large fields.The National has upto 40 runners,so good form in fields say of 15+ could be a useful statistic.Also good form at park courses. The National has some of the stiffest fences,so some (if not all park courses) might also take some jumping.
I hope these may prove useful in finding next year winner.
#84
April 6th, 2009 19:51
Thank you crisp 73 some very useful info and clarification (your winner profile is a brillent piece of work).
Just loved this:
Crisp 73
“Only 3 out of the last 38 National winners had not ran in one of the profile races. Lucius and Hallo Dandy had the same trainer, Gordon Richards, and Lord Gyllene only raced in this country for two seasons prior to his win.”
Now you just have to sit up and taake notice dont you, it so hits you in the face – nice one Crisp 73.
#85
April 6th, 2009 20:02
Stats Man post 26: Mon Mome was rated OR 148 on weights day and for the GN (I think this sites computer predictor had him wrong on 146) – its why I missed him as at christmas (I did my initial ratings around Dec 17th) he was rated OR 150 at that time after a win and my own cut of point was OR 146 (until this year OR 136 to OR 144 would have found most recent winners). Its why I am going up to OR 150 for my initial assesment next year (and taking a good look at all placed runners in those key races lited above).
#86
April 6th, 2009 20:15
Stats Man noticed in your form figures for the last 11 years (based on figures in post 28 and 26.
1. Every winner had a 3rd or better some time in GN winning year.
2. Every winner had placed 1 to 4th at least twice (including at least one at 3rd or better)
3. 4 to 5 prep runs prior to GN (2 had 4, 9 had 5!)
4. Only one win if they won in GN year (I’am not sure about this as a trend).
#87
April 6th, 2009 20:37
Systemsman, you sound to me like you’re in danger of looking for patterns in numbers without stopping to consider the meaning behind the numbers. It will take you down a blind alley if you’re not careful!
#88
April 6th, 2009 23:04
Maybe this year was just a freak result; Kilbeggan Blade was obviously not good enough [which most people thought could be the case anyway]; we’ll never know what Brooklyn Brownie would have done, and the fact is that just about everyone who studied the race in depth from whichever angle [eg.Eddie Fremantle, Mike Torpey, Tanya] came up with Rambo. Everyone agrees that the race is getting more and more difficult each year to predict, not helped by the fact that the rules seem to change each year. I read that Bobby Jo would never have got into Saturdays race. Still, it makes it more interesting.
#89
April 7th, 2009 08:19
Showlad;
I used top 5 Hennessey because after sifting through results Red Marauder was one of the ‘odd’ ones and I think his best performance over 24f or more was his 5th in the Hennessey. Since 1970, Red Rum, Aldaniti, Corbiere, Maori Venture, Rhyme N Reason(may have done better in subsequent years than his 5th in 85) Mr Frisk, Party Politics, Rough Quest, Earth Summit, Bindaree, Hedgehunter and Comply Or Die all finished 5th or better. Specify fell, Seagram was 9th.
Likewise a top 3 in Irish, Scots, Welsh Nationals was decided by Last Suspect and Miinnehoma. They came third in Irish and Welsh respectively, there best positional performance in profile races. Red Rum, Rag Trade, Rubstic, Aldaniti, Corbiere, Rhyme N Reason, Little Polveir, Party Politics, Earth Summit, Bobbyjo, Papillon, Bindaree, Hedgehunter, Numbersixvalverde, Silver Birch and Mon Mome all finished 3rd or better in these Nationals.
A top 2 finish in race over GN fences was decided by – L’Escargot-2nd in ‘old’ Sefton, longer than today’s sefton(I know he was double Gold Cup winner but I thought it was interesting that he met criteria in this way, and Monty’s Pass- 2nd in Topham. Grittar-won foxhunters, Amberleigh House – won Becher chase; Silver Birch-won Becher chase.
As I said before when compiling lists of ones to watch, you might want to look at ‘top 6′ and ‘top 4′. I was concerned this year that trainers are beginning to miss these races because of the handicapper penalising horses who have done well in them. (totally wrong in my view- handicapper should be penalising those who run in hurdle races all year and conceal their true strength!)
#90
April 7th, 2009 08:44
Oedipe- great point about looking at the RPR of the performances in the profile races. I will start to look at this.
Maureen- you’re right about Rambling Minster. He was a stat bullseye. My list, using 100% 18/18 trends or longer, read; Mon Mome, L’Ami, Cornish Sett and Rambling Minster.
So Mon Mome even met RedRum’s breeding profile. Amazing.
#91
April 7th, 2009 09:37
WHOOOO there!
Regarding the top 5 Hennesy / Top 3 National trend.
Dont anyone go changing or tweaking the trend.
It worked this year. The winner was listed on at least 4 diffeent people’s lists by 10th Febraury.
But as we all know our lists need to be shortened down by some means and its this that needs looking into.
We should of cross referenced our lists a lot earlier and then seen which horses were on them all (as already stated it would of left us with 3 horses including the winner).
As for next year and a seperate thread for each horse i dont think this will work as in december when a lot of the hard work begins we dont know which horses will be entered. Also the number of horses we talk about over the course of the months is a ridiculous number for admin to get up and us try to keep upto date with it all.
Just had a little chuckle to myself whilst looking thro my notes leading upto the national (i make notes to myself so i can read them before backing a horse) and found a few notes on why not to back Cornish sett. Amongst them were ‘has this horse improved that much from last year? Going by his form whilst racing Mon Mome i dont think it is enough of an improvement. do not be tempted by Cornish Sett and if you are then back MM instead’
Well the good news is i wasn’t tempted to back Cornish Sett,
And the bad news is i wasn’t tempted to back Cornish Sett.
#92
April 7th, 2009 09:42
Last 4 winners:
Irish: 1st Numbersixvalverde RPR 138 (OR 126) +12lb (not earth-shattering RPR but low rating)
Welsh: 1st Silver Birch RPR 148 (OR 132) + 16lb (excellent RPR for rating)
Hennessy: 4th Comply Or Die – RPR 155 (OR 146) +9lb (best rated of all the winners and OR dropped to 140 from 148 after injury)
Welsh: 2nd Mon Mome – RPR 151 (OR 136) +15lb (excellent RPR for rating)
(State Of Play produced an RPR of 165 (OR 145) +20lb in his Hennessy win – a reproduction of that form and he would have gone much closer although debatable about whether he stayed as well as Mon Mome – his RPR was 153 this season (12lb below best))
#93
April 7th, 2009 09:51
Last 4 winners:
Irish: 1st Numbersixvalverde RPR 138 (OR 126) +12lb (not earth-shattering RPR but low rating) – subsequently posted RPR 146 in winning season
Welsh: 1st Silver Birch RPR 148 (OR 132) + 16lb (excellent RPR for rating) – subsequently posted RPR 150 in winning season
Hennessy: 4th Comply Or Die – RPR 155 (OR 146) +9lb (best rated of all the winners and OR dropped to 140 from 148 after injury) – subsequently posted RPR 155 in winning season
Welsh: 2nd Mon Mome – RPR 151 (OR 136) +15lb (excellent RPR for rating) – subsequently posted RPR 155 in winning season
Clues are:
1) Have I shown good form in a key race well in excess of my rating?
2) Have I repoduced or bettered that rating this season?
If yes, yes shortlist.
If you don’t you might be sorry!
#94
April 7th, 2009 10:00
Thanks for reply me Crisp, ever the gent in replying to Qs instyaed of being selective or blanking them.
Rather than ‘keep in mind’ Top 4 Scots, Irish, Welsh etc I think the net should include Top 4. I really don’t think we should give Hennessy special treatment, but if Top 5 – OK then, but the other ‘National’ races Top 4. GC fair enough that it should be Top 5.
#95
April 7th, 2009 10:03
Showlad why does it need changed?
I cant help but think this will cause us to overlook more winners in the future as we’ll end up with a longer short list and therefore will need to be harsher when it comes to reducing it down?
#96
April 7th, 2009 10:04
Answering those 2 questions alone would have given you a shortlist as follows (including Racing Post Chase):
Black Apalachi
My Will
Big Fella Thanks
Mon Mome
Parsons Legacy
Cornish Sett
Appyling weight, age etc and it narrows down even further…
However, very good point about trainers maybe side-stepping these races.
#97
April 7th, 2009 10:51
Re GN form gigures
Oedipe (post 37) it was just a point of intersst based on a quick look. Certainly was not looking for a trend on the from figures given except that you do need a 1/2/3rd in GN year. Ofcourse you are right to pont out the dangers of patterns for the sake of patterns but I think you misunderstood the intention of my post which was only a quick point of interest.
#98
April 7th, 2009 11:06
“crisp 73 says:
April 7, 2009 at 8:44 AM
Maureen- you’re right about Rambling Minster. He was a stat bullseye. My list, using 100% 18/18 trends or longer, read; Mon Mome, L’Ami, Cornish Sett and Rambling Minster.
So Mon Mome even met RedRum’s breeding profile. Amazing.”
s
Reply – thanks Crisp good info.
Mon Mome, L’Ami, Cornish Sett and Rambling Minster.
Now what we can learn from this is that when someone put up a case against a runner we have to be more tolerant of their views and be willing to lokk at the negatives as well as the positives for All runners.
I say this as i was nearly shot down after I quetioned Rambo as a GN winner after his last win (yes I came over to the majority view and became a big fan. I still have no regrets in shortlisting him though).
Again i was nearly shot down by posts when I put up both L’Ami and Cornish Set on my short list nearer the GN date on the basis that they were better bets than KB and HT and that placed horses in the GN could win and so could French breds.
Now I dont post this now to look good (I failed to get the winner remember) but just to ask for more tolerance of alternative views that cut across the majority view at any time.
#99
April 7th, 2009 11:16
Good posts Pablo, even more head shaking in my house!
So what about weight fellow bloggers?
This was the first National since 1950 that all the horses in the frame carried 11st or more.
Mon Mome though did only carry 9lbs more than bottom weight(bottom weight to 12lbs more than bottom weight-20/20 GN winners) and Mon Mome was in the bottom half of the handicap,20/20. Perhaps the 11st 5lb or less, which is,not including Red Rum, a fifty year trend is still the wisest starting point with perhaps another positive added if it’s carrying less than a stone more than bottom weight.
#100
April 7th, 2009 11:22
Systemsman. Spot on.
Advice for us all. Whether it’s blinkers, unplaced horses or whatever, perhaps we should christen the first law of Grand National. Call it Mon Mome’s law as French breds had won before as had unplaced horses.
Mon Mome’s law ; If it’s happened before it’ll probably happen again.
#101
April 7th, 2009 11:23
I’ll be sticking with the carrying no more than 12lbs than bottom weight as its builds in for the handicap being more and more compressed.
Out of interest Crisp what was the stat for the weight carried below top weight prior to this year as it is now 10lbs below top weight.
In a way im hoping it was no more than 12lbs before this year as there is a viable explanation if it was indeed only 11lbs or 12lbs below top weight.
#102
April 7th, 2009 11:36
Crisp – I think if you look at those below 11 stone with key race form – there wasn’t much to beat to be fair:
Butler’s Cabin – weighted out of it by handicapper & no form for 2 years
L’Ami – chances but many thought running in too poor company to be winning a GN
Parson’s Legacy – doubts about layoff and ground
Cornish Sett – not enough ahead of the handicapper
Himalayan Trail – no form all season
Also Darkness & Southern Vic fancied on novice form but neither had proved themselves in a key race
Basically left Rambo as a stonking good bet after his Haydock performance or so we thought!
This 12lb above top weight is something I will bear in mind next year – this year I awarded 1 point to 11’5 or less and 2 to 10’13 or less so it didn’t make a dramatic difference to my ratings but the difference from bottom weight is one I like
The breeding thing I use works well for GB and IRE horses but I don’t know enough about French breds – so will reduce it’s importance for next year (or only use on GB and IRE horses as an indicator of stamina)
Perhaps we were all looking too hard for the below 11’0 good thing – hopefully there’ll be one next year!
#103
April 7th, 2009 11:43
Pablo says:
Perhaps we were all looking too hard for the below 11′0 good thing – hopefully there’ll be one next year!
Or hopefuly we will have learnt we dont need to find one below 11 stone as long as we stick to the 12lbs trend rule.
I would be tempted to stop looking at the breeding altogether Pablo rather than use it on just GB & IRE horses as it can only be a fair asseessment if you know all the horses breeding background and not just half the fields. Thats why i dont pay attention to the strong gale factor as i dont know enough to compare it with anything.
#104
April 7th, 2009 11:54
Hi guys,
INDIVIDUAL HORSE THREADS
I’m quite happy to give this a go but I am concerned about the amount of space this is going to take up – I’m not sure we could or should have 70 or 80 individual pages with a handful of comments on each horse.
I’m also concerned that people will simply cut and paste comments from a main thread into horse threads and we will end up with duplication. We are under pressure for space so that is also something that I would want to avoid.
I’ll put up a thread for the placed horses in this year’s National to begin with (I’ll start putting them up in the next couple of days) and then as the ante-post market starts to settle down I’ll add any horse that appears to be strongly fancied or any horse that runs well in a trial.
If anyone has a horse they particularly want to write about let me know and we will see if we can put a thread about that as well.
THREAD LENGTHS
I will do my best to make sure that the thread length stays within a manageable level but please be aware that I have other tasks to do and unfortunately I can’t focus on the blog 24/7.
Thanks
#105
April 7th, 2009 12:08
Admin,
Rather than do an individual thread for each horse would it not be easier and better if we had an individual thread for each trend.
That way people can put there ideas and thoughts forward regarding them i.e. The french Bred / Over 11 stones.
That way the same thing isn’t getting said in each thread and those that dont go by that trend dont need to read all the posts regarding it.
#106
April 7th, 2009 12:37
Admin – is it possible to add a comments link to the profiles that already exist for each horse? Strikes me this is an obvious place to link from.
#107
April 7th, 2009 13:09
I’d like to make a point about the weight trend.
To understand why the 11st barrier has existed for so long, I feel you have to take a step back and remember this is a HANDICAP race. The aim is for all the horses to finish in a heap. The winner will be the horse that is capable of running to the highest mark over their handicap. In order to do this, the horse has to be capable of improvement. So it’s probable it will either be a progressive horse that is ascending the ratings first time around, or a horse that has reached a peak, regressed, and is on the ascendency again.
Winners of the GN typically run a stone better than their official rating. There is more scope for this level of improvement from an OR around 135-150 than there is an OR around 150+, for the latter would be propelling itself out of handicap class and into Cheltenham Gold Cup territory. And history shows us, that potentially smart horses, who would have won major novice honours are not taken down a handicapping route and aimed at the GN.
So it’s simply been the case that the biggest potential for improvement has laid with the horses rated around 135-150 mark, which due to the way the weights are framed is usually around 11st and under.
In my opinion, the actualy weight carried is of less relevance than the ability of the horse to run above it’s mark. Whether it’s running off 10st or 11-10.
If, for arguments sake, Denman had been in the race off 181, then Cloudy Lane (158) would have raced with 10-1 and all the others would have been out of the handicap. (In practice that would have led a lot of the other highly rated horses to stand their ground, but I think you can understand the point.)
And if you need any more evidence, just go back to Denman’s Hennessy win.
#108
April 7th, 2009 13:27
“I would be tempted to stop looking at the breeding altogether Pablo rather than use it on just GB & IRE horses as it can only be a fair asseessment if you know all the horses breeding background and not just half the fields. Thats why i dont pay attention to the strong gale factor as i dont know enough to compare it with anything.”
Fair point but if my ratings pick out a GB or IRE horse next year as number 1 AND it scores well on breeding I will up my stake accordingly (system has been useful for other races)
There’s finding the winner and if you do having enough on if you really believe it will win
I have no regrets about backing Rambo but I have learned:
1. To let the stats do the talking first (agree with yourself what stats you are going to use and do not change them – there’s plenty of time to analyse all winners back to Mr Frisk / Seagram on RP website)
2. Get the shortlist sorted & staking plan
3. Then look at each horse
4. Hold your ground and only change stats if they make sense
5. Bet accordingly
Which is what I used to do!
#109
April 7th, 2009 13:40
Hi all
Checking in after a few days break. Must say I’m quite annoyed at the comments about us getting it all wrong. I agree we need to learn from the result but without a shadow of a doubt Rambo was the stand out bet. You give me the same card again and I’d pick Rambo out everytime. The reason why people weren’t critical of him was because there were hardly any reasons. Even looking back now, after the race, its hard to make a case against him. As far as I can see there is two things:
1. He won 2 races in GN season (can we really start punishing horses for this?)
2. He had no form in top races. (This was a horse that both trainer and jockey themselves had expressed their surprise at his change in form this season – was clearly a different horse. Plus the Blue Square Gold Cup is a pretty classy race imo).
Don’t put yourselves down guys (and girls) we did nothing wrong, result just didn’t go 100% to plan that’s all.
What we do need to ask is more why Mon Mome wasn’t backed at all – at least as a saver. For me it was his unplacing last year (which I then broke later with CS and L’ami :@) and his woeful form of late.
He was a top trends fitter and was in my list up until around 1-2 weeks before the race, but his race in Midlands Nat – so soon to the GN finished him off for me. On the day I did express “That’s 100-1? Was fave for the Welsh Nat only few months ago, no way he should be that price!” However this price combined with stable jockey’s choice just solidified my feelings that I was right to cross it off.
Think those of us who tipped up L’ami can give ourselves a slight tap on the back as he was probably the ultimate trends fitter this year and we picked him out despite the fact that he was unplaced in previous Nationals and the fact that he was French. Exactly the same for Mon Mome. Difference with MM is that L’ami had been in very good form this season and had performed well in an easy race at Cheltenham compared with MM who had a tough race half a week later finishing 8th in Midlands Nat.
RE the ‘unplaced in previous Nat’ thing, I don’t think we should just allow anything in now. There has to be a reason why they were so far behind. For me with Lami and CS it was that L’ami was much better off at weights than when unplacing, was better age, had been hampered and was with new stable. CS had had wind operation that was now helping as seen when staying on in Welsh Nat. Mon Mome was badly hampered by Butlers Cabin last year (just watched it again) and then hit the next fence (as many hampered horses seem to do) and couldn’t get back into it from then – see Aiden Coleman’s comments after the race:
10th place:
Mon Mome 1½l
Aidan Coleman: “He gave me an absolutely brilliant spin. He was going well but Tony McCoy’s horse fell in front of us at Becher’s second time and half fell in front of my horse and that took him out of the race.”
I think we still need to apply this trend for unplaced horses unless: they were hampered, are much much better off weights-wise or other outstanding circumstances (breathing op POST-race, ran 3 yrs previous when only 6 etc). After all, if they got a fair spin at it once, there has to be some decent excuse as to why they are going to fair better next time.
Already noting down everyone’s trends for this year. Nice work all.
RE the separate threads for each horse. Not sure quite how logical this is. In these threads we discuss so many different things, often in one post. There’s plenty of different conversations going on at the same time usually. Would just make it too structured imo. I think the best way is to keep on top of the threads. Make sure they don’t get too big, and maybe have a search engine in place, so users can search the blogs for info in individual horses. Find all posts that mention that horse etc. Would be much better.
Sure there’s something I’ve missed. Keep up the good work everyone.
Ells
1
#110
April 7th, 2009 15:31
Brian, from 1990 – 2008, Hedgehunter had carried the highest weight in relation to top weight, 11lbs less than top weight. I did post just before the GN so there should be a list here somewhere. So Mon Mome has raised the bar 1lb.
#111
April 7th, 2009 16:10
Brian re change – I just do not think we can justify limiting say the Welsh, Scots or Irish Nationals to Top3 but go Top 5 in Hennessy – that is my point. Views anyone?
I think the Big Nationals should go to the Top 4, unless given solid reason why not to, whether it makes a list bigger or not.
The question should be what is relevant to be included and not what should be excluded because it makes the check list longer.
#112
April 7th, 2009 16:12
TC says:
April 5, 2009 at 3:50 PM
Daniel Edwards says:
April 5, 2009 at 3:46 PM
All of the last 20 winners (Red Mauarder aside) had ALREADY by this stage placed in a C1 chase over 3miles or further. Should narrow things down a bit!
do you mean now or by end of season, as there are a couple of nationals coming up
Just responding to this one from the other thread. I meant by the end of this season, although MOST already done it by now and in fact I have just realised that ROUGH QUEST did not meet this stat, having placed in his 3 C1 chases in the same season (Racing Post Chase, Welsh National, Gold Cup)
Sorry about that guys. But though it best to come clean now!
Still, kind of links in with the stat about not having performed too well in the season of the National; best to find a horse who has proved themselves already in previous seasons and not back one on the basis of one race (Rambo!
)
I wouldnt be put off by a horse having placed in their only C1 chase in the same season, but looking back, 18/20 winners had done in by the end of the season before their National, so I definately think it helps point you in the direction of the winner, as there are surprisingly few horses who meet this and the other required stats at this stage.
#113
April 7th, 2009 16:15
Sorry, the above should say Hennessy and NOT Welsh National
#114
April 7th, 2009 16:29
Any fancies for the 2010 National?!
Russian Trigger looks like he would fit the profile for next year. Only concern would be lack of chase experience, and if that were to be rectified the impact it may have on the OR before weights day 2010.
Trainer states hopes he’ll be a National runner ‘one day’.
#115
April 7th, 2009 17:18
Amazing the bookies have already formed a good book on the GN 2010 at:
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/grand-national
Denman Fav at 20/1
#116
April 7th, 2009 17:42
“Daniel Edwards says:
April 7, 2009 at 4:12 PM
I wouldnt be put off by a horse having placed in their only C1 chase in the same season, but looking back, 18/20 winners had done in by the end of the season before their National, so I definately think it helps point you in the direction of the winner, as there are surprisingly few horses who meet this and the other required stats at this stage.”
Reply:
Bloody hell Daniel does that mean I oould start a thred named “Can we find the Grand National winnner in June? – Yes we can!”
On second thoughts I think we all deserve a rest but i will start to comply some notes on those key races ready for Dec. Would be nice to recoup just a few £’s on Irish or Scots National though (woud help buld the GN kitty).
Have already started to rebuild my GN betting bank with 2/2 winning days (sticking to AW where my system has a great strike rate)with tiny stakes (well they would be after such a loss)but i’am not one for lying down and feeling sorry for myself (well not for too long anyway).
I intend to win the GN in 2010 (and to help all of us win) and recoup the investment i made in 2009 – cant wait to give those rich bookies a bloody good hiding for taking my money!(did you know that the share price of the major bookies went up after the GN – not surprised with all that money they made).
2009 was the bookies GN
2010 will be the peoples GN!!!
#117
April 7th, 2009 19:10
Just like to add a search engine is excellent idea,mentioned by Lough ‘so tough’ Derg.I was going to say about starting each horse under it’s initial ie:-M would have My will & Mon mome.Although Z would only have Zabenz.Maybe the idea could be thought out better by someone else (or dropped as a bad idea,as it’s just off top of my head).
Next I’d like to thank Darren aka Admin for setting this site,I came across it by accident.Looking up Grand National Weights on goggle.Very informative and quite intellectual discussions going on.Would they be anymore races other than National,SN,IGN like the Bet 365 (I always know it as The Whitbread)Sandown
Trends of the race are very important but the trend of an individual horse/trainer is just as important.Like War Of Attrition Use to follow him a few seasons back so I’d know that he best at 2 miles 6 furlongs combined with a 5 week rest.Others might know trends of other horses/trainers which will help us to come to a conclusion.
#118
April 8th, 2009 12:28
Showlad; Why Hennessey top 5 and, say, Welsh National top 3? No National winner in the last 37 years has finished 6th or worse in a Hennessey and not qualified on other criteria of winner profile/ finished 4th or worse in Irish, Scots, Welsh National and not qualified on other criteria/no horse has finished 3rd or lower in a race over GN fences etc.
Have began looking at last 19 GN winners, what had they achieved by the end of April the year before their GN win. 18/19 had ran in at least 7 chases-Lord Gyllene had only been in the country for a season.
Some 2010 possibles, on winner profile,(ages next April);Character Building 10*, State Of Play 10, Parsons Legacy 12*, Miko De Beauchene 10, Iris De Balme 10*, Flintoff 9*, Hot Weld 11*, Nine De Sivola 9, Butlers Cabin 10, Comply Or Die 11,Black Apalachi 11.
I’ve asterisked some I’m quite keen on at the moment.
#119
April 8th, 2009 13:20
Character Building 10*, State Of Play 10, Parsons Legacy 12*, Miko De Beauchene 10, Iris De Balme 10*, Flintoff 9*, Hot Weld 11*, Nine De Sivola 9, Butlers Cabin 10, Comply Or Die 11,Black Apalachi 11.
With State of Play, Mike De Beauchene, Comply or Die likely to have too much weight, and Butlers Cabin having missed his best chance, I make it that the list becomes;
Character Building (OR too high perhaps?)
Parsons Legacy
Hot Weld
ALL INJURY PRONE-Long term antepost bets probably not sensible
Iris De Balme
Flintoff
Nine De Sivola (17 chase runs and no wins!! No thank you, not for me)
Black Apalachi (could be hugely intersting if his mark gets low enough)
I like Flintoff more and more. Why has nobody priced him up yet?!
#120
April 8th, 2009 13:35
Irish Raptor, Flintoff on softish ground or Russian Trigger
Iris De Balme if fit & handicapper is generous
Something might come out of the Irish GN
#121
April 8th, 2009 13:41
15/16 GN winners had won a C1/C2 chase worth 17k by the end of April, one year before their GN win. Lord Gyllene, again, is the odd won out.
#122
April 8th, 2009 13:43
Keep going Crisp!! what about the 3 mile stat? and their OR at the end of the season before
#123
April 8th, 2009 14:16
23/25 GN winners had won at 24f or more by the end of April, a year before their GN wins. Lord Gyllene/Red Marauder are odd ones out.
15/19 GN winners had recorded RPR 144 a year before their GN win.
17/19 GN winners had recorded a left handed RPR 141 a year before their GN win.
#124
April 8th, 2009 14:22
Add to above post.
Didn’t have a 144 RPR performance; Lord Gyllene,Monty’s Pass, Amberleigh House, Numbersixvalverde.
Didn’t have a left handed 141 RPR performance; Lord Gyllene, Numbersixvalverde.
#125
April 8th, 2009 14:30
RedRum; Thanks for the breeding info on Mon Mome. Could I get my requests in for 2010? Character Building, Flintoff, Iris de Blame, Parsons Legacy, Hot Weld.
#126
April 8th, 2009 14:45
Sorry to interrup the forward thinking, but thought I would just throw this in as a classic example of how blindly applying trends lead you to overlook the chances of too many runners.
http://blogs.mirror.co.uk/racing/2009/04/value-scope-lift-the-gloom-wit.html
The above link is to the Valuescope column on the eve of the 2009 GN. The key paragraph for me is “…Anyway, those with official ratings that are too high on the records and can be eliminated go from Cloudy Lane at the top to L’Ami who is number 23.”
For the future it would help to have a discussion of all horses and their full trends match, rather than limiting the field based upon a strict adherence to a single stat.
#127
April 8th, 2009 14:45
So to summarise Crisp’s stats, by the end of April 2009, the GN winner for 2010 (whoever he/she may be) will have, with perhaps about 90% certainty;
1 – Have won a chase over 3miles or further,
2 – Have run in at least 7 chases,
3 – Have won a C1/C2 chase worth 17k or more AND
4 – Have placed in a C1 chase over 3 miles or further.
Excpetions to these rules were Red Marauder, Rough Quest, Lord Gyllene.
Good work Crisp.
I like that a lot. Couple this with Systemsman OR stats, and I would think we’re down to a workable chunk already!!
Over to you Systemsman! What are the pre christmas OR stats? We can tweek accordingly to allow for the extra time before the race.
#128
April 8th, 2009 15:08
There’s a good few entered in the Irish National that qualify based on those 4 factors Daniel
I’ll get a list sometime this week when I’ve finished my Irish GN analysis
#129
April 8th, 2009 15:41
Thought I should post this again. Updated, last 30 winners.
Rubstic – won at 29f / placed at 33f
Ben Nevis – won at 33f
Aldaniti – won at 24f/ placed at 33f
Grittar – won at 26f, think this was furthest he ran
Corbiere – won at 30f
Hallo Dandy – won at 28f
Last Suspect – won at 29f
West Tip – won at 29f
Maori Venture – won at 27f /think he only ran further once, 29f/P
Rhyme N Reason – won at 29f / placed at 30f
Little Polveir – won at 33f
Mr Frisk – won at 29f
Seagram – won at 32f
Party Politics – won at 26f / placed at 30f
Miinnehoma – won at 26f / placed at 30f
Royal Athlete – won at 28f
Rough Quest – won at 26f/ placed at 27f, only ran further once, 28f/ fell
Lord Gyllene – won at 34f
Earth Summit – won at 33f
Bobbyjo – won at 29f
Papillon – won at 24f / placed at 29f
Red Marauder – won at 24f /ran further three times, 27f,29f,36f/5th,O,fell
Bindaree – won at 25f/ placed at 30f
Montys Pass – won at 24f, furthest he ran
Amberleigh House – won at 27f / placed at 36f
Hedgehunter – won at 28f / placed at 30f
Numbersixvalverde – won at 29f
Silver Birch – won at 29f / placed at 31f
Comply Or Die – won at 33f
Mon Mome – won at 27f / placed at 30f
Oedipe, I’m not blindly applying any trends and I haven’t bet on anything yet nor am I advocating anyone should do so. With regard to the weight, Valuescope and many others are wrong in their analysis on the ’11st’. Since fences were modified after 89 National we’ve had 19 races, many different top weights, many diferent OR’s of top weights but one fact. Nothing has carried more than 12lbs more than bottom weight to victory. Sure something could come out of the clouds next year carrying something near top weight but remember only Red Rum has carried more than 11-5 to victory since the 1950′s. Nothing has carried more than 14lbs more than bottom weight to victory since 1983. We don’t know what the top weight/OR will be next year. I reckon if we look at horses at a conservative OR 155 or less now we won’t be faraway.
#130
April 8th, 2009 15:44
Last 19 winners – best key race form:
Hennessy: 3rd Mr Frisk RPR 156 (OR 154) +2lb – in GN winning season (incomplete data for Mr Frisk)
Racing Post: 3rd Seagram RPR 142 (OR 154) -12lb – subsequently posted RPR 160 (OR 146) winning at Cheltenham 23 days before GN win (well in for GN)
Hennessy: 2nd Party Politics RPR 158 (OR 152) +6lb – subsequently 2nd in Welsh National RPR 148 (OR 153) -5lb in winning season (not great RPR-OR stats but 2 qualifying races in same season – knocking on the door)
Welsh: 3rd Miinnehoma RPR 148 (OR 157) -9lb – previously RPR 159 winning SunAlliance Chase and posted 160 in winning season (top class juvenile form allied to key race form > Darkness for example)
Gold Cup: 3rd Royal Athlete RPR 163 – subsequently posted 163 later that year – off injured and rated 155 in GN (benefitted from reduced OR from injury)
Gold Cup: 2nd Rough Quest RPR 170 – GN OR was 152 – well in at the weights 16 days later
Midlands: 2nd Lord Gyllene RPR 155 (OR 148) +7lb – already posted 156 and 157 in this the GN winning season (ultra-consistent quality)
Welsh: 1st Earth Summit RPR 157 (OR 143) +14lb in GN winning season (no more to be said)
Irish: 1st Bobbyjo RPR 153 (OR 121) +32lb – subsequently posted nothing of note before GN except best ever hurdles RPR (well backed to win)
Irish: 2nd Papillon RPR 164 (OR 133) +31lb – subsequently posted RPR 150 following season but nothing major in GN winning season (Trainer blames soft ground) except best ever hurdles RPR run before GN win (well backed to win)
Hennessy: 5th Red Marauder RPR 143 (OR 142) +1lb – subsequently posted 145 (poor race that year)
Welsh: 3rd Bindaree RPR 141 (OR 136) +5lb (also Hennessy 5th RPR 130 (OR 139) -9lb) – best run BEFORE Welsh National 144 in Tommy Whittle at Haydock in winning season (not great stats)
Topham 2nd: Monty’s Pass RPR 142 (OR 131) +11lb – subsequently posted PRP 148 in winning season
Becher: 2nd Amberleigh House RPR 154 (OR 131) +23lb and won National that season (also won Becher and come 2nd in race before with low rating & RPR)
Welsh: 3rd Hedgehunter RPR 125 (OR 131) -6lb BUT next run Thyestes Chase: 1st RPR 156 (OR 129) +27lb – subsequently posted 150 in only chase start in season of National win (strong hint he was back near best)
Irish: 1st Numbersixvalverde RPR 138 (OR 126) +12lb (not earth-shattering RPR but low rating) – subsequently posted RPR 146 in winning season
Welsh: 1st Silver Birch RPR 148 (OR 132) + 16lb (excellent RPR for rating) – subsequently posted RPR 150 in winning season
Hennessy: 4th Comply Or Die – RPR 155 (OR 146) +9lb (OR dropped to 140 from 148 after injury) – subsequently posted RPR 155 in winning season AND handicapper gave him a chance after injury
Welsh: 2nd Mon Mome – RPR 151 (OR 136) +15lb (excellent RPR for rating) – subsequently posted RPR 155 in winning season
Summary – mixed bag but generally strong key race form and one piece of equivalent form in current season is a strong indicator
In most cases very good form well ahead of OR posted in key races but not always the case – sometimes key race form not best form (Hedgehunter) – sometimes best form reserved for season of win (Amberleigh House) – sometimes difficult to explain why they won (no stand-out stats for Red Marauder or Bindaree)
#131
April 8th, 2009 15:57
42/42 GN stat; a top 4 chase/top 3 hurdle place in winning season.
Well, Comply Or Die nor My Will didn’t, though of course neither won. So a very strong stat in terms of longevity but perhaps when weighing up fancies a postive should be given to top 4 chase/top 3 hurdle but perhaps if you’ve got a points table then half a point awarded to top 5/top 4 hurdle?
#132
April 8th, 2009 16:59
Daniel Edwards
“Over to you Systemsman! What are the pre christmas OR stats? We can tweek accordingly to allow for the extra time before the race.”
Reply:
In case you missed it: Pre-Christmas Trends of GN winner.
All past 10-12 winners had all these trends by 19th Feb 9 for trend 4 only, and trend 6 by 15th Jan only).
1. OR 136 to 148 (11/12 trend) but add 2pts for a safety margin and check between OR136 and OR150 for your first short list
2. RPR rating 144minimum (10/11, 11 from 11 by 15th Jan)
3. Won case value £17,000 or more (12/12)
4. 3 Chase wins (any type) or more (10/11, 11/11 by 19th Feb)
5. Age 8 to 12 (13/13)
6. Completed in 10 Chases (10/11, 11/11 by 15th Jan)
7. Won over 24f or more (12/12, 10/12 at 25f or more)
8. Won Class 1 or 2 Chase-any type (12/12)
9. TS rating minimum of 111 (13/13, TS 128 or more 8/12)
Trend 1 if the only change from this year.
Even though i am looking in detail at up to OR150 for next years winner I will also dimiss nothing from considertaion!! (Denman could put a spanner in the works).
Some intersting results coming out of my reseach on past winners of the key races for 2009, 2008,and 2007. Will post my thoughts on this when the new RPR etc for 2009 Scottish and Irish National results are out. I’am paying a lot of attention to OR compared to RPR achieved in these races.
One example:
Welsh National 2007
Mon Mome 2nd
Or 136 RPR 166 = +15!
I will post a league table of best RPR compared to OR in these key races after the Scots Nat results and new RPR’s are out(obviously we wont have the 2009 Welsh Nat result yet so to make amends I will use WN results for 2008,2007 and 2006 for the moment).
#133
April 8th, 2009 17:03
Amendment to post 32:
Should read:
“One example:
Welsh National 2007
Mon Mome 2nd
OR 136 RPR 151 = +15!
Grand National 2009
Mon Mome 1st
OR 148 RPR 166 = +18!
Its time I used that spred sheet!!! (so many figures)
#134
April 8th, 2009 17:45
Systemsman, I’ve got the same data, so after you’ve posted up I’ll audit the figures to make sure we’ve not got any mistakes.
Checks and balances are good
#135
April 8th, 2009 18:12
When you are using RPR figures be aware that these are open to revision – recently for example Butler’s Cabin Irish GN performance downgraded from 150 to 147 a few weeks before this year’s GN – i.e. dead level with his rating
And Garde Champetre and L’Ami’s RPR downgraded by 7lb between their Cross Country 1-2 at the Festival and GN
So if you are using a RPR-OR threshold be sure to check the figures before placing any bets
#136
April 8th, 2009 19:18
Looking at this year’s result,yes the winner carried 11 stone to victory or 9 pounds more than bottom weight,but the key is the first 4 had 11 stone something.I think everyone seems to be rapped up with you can’t win with 11 stone or more.Analysis of placed horses (where possible,may give you an accurate picture.)
#137
April 8th, 2009 19:45
Oedipe many thanks that will be a great help. I will post ofcourse after we know the OR’s/RPR’s for the Irish and Scots Nat.
#138
April 9th, 2009 09:28
Cheers for the weight issue below top weight Crisp. I think because the top weight was reduced by 2lbs this year then it helped compress the top weights that bit closer so it does explain why that stat changed (for me anyways) and 1lb is not that big a difference anyways.
Neil, the Stat we were discussing regarding weight above bottom weight is 12lbs above so Mon Mome fitted in. The fact that 3 other horses placed above 11 stone changes nothing, if they had had a few pounds less and were only 12lbs above bottom weight then who knows if they would of won, but the fact is they didn’t win its all ifs and maybes and theres too many of them to contemplate and build a safety net around.
RE 2010 Flintoff is a horse i have been watching over the last 2 seasons to see if it will turn into a national horse at the moment im edging on the side of caution and think it could be another year before it is.
#139
April 9th, 2009 21:45
Brian the entire field was compressed into 1 stone 5 pounds.In my younger days it used to be 2 stones and most were long handicaps.
12 pounds from Zabenz (40th to get in) at 10 stone 5 is 11 stone 3 pound;Eurotrek’s weight.
However if I’d known this fact I would have dropped My Will.
My general observation is that horses you short list one year keeps popping up year after year(providing they have the correct weight and age)
Silver Birch was an horse who made my short list year on year.Kept the faith and was rewarded when it won got 47/1 on betfair.
One question on weights how do you know whose bottom weight when your compiling facts in feb when weights come out,or is this something that can only be done on or near the day.
Will be applying the 12 pound from bottom next year,thank you.
#140
April 10th, 2009 09:34
Oedipe – I’ll look into if this is possible – I have a feeling it might be but only through out our other site, OLBG. I will get back to you but need to check with the technical people who won’t be available till after Easter.
#141
April 10th, 2009 13:29
Qualifiers set to run in Irish Grand National that meet these 4 criteria:
1 – Have won a chase over 3miles or further,
2 – Have run in at least 7 chases,
3 – Have won a C1/C2 chase worth 17k or more AND
4 – Have placed in a C1 chase over 3 miles or further.
Notre Pere
Chelsea Harbour
One Cool Cookie
Casey Jones
Royal County Star
Arbor Supreme
Himalayan Trail
Niche Market
Church Island
Emma Jane
Pomme Tiepy
A New Story
Forest Leaves
Newbay Prop
Bella Mana Mou
Operation Houdini
#142
April 11th, 2009 14:48
A few quotes of the BBC website;
James Reveley (Rambling Minster, pulled up 19th): “He didn’t take to it and just didn’t like it. He jumped OK until he made a mistake down the back and he was looking after himself after that so I pulled up going down the back on the second circuit.”
Phil Kinsella (Brooklyn Brownie, fell 2nd): “All sorts of things go through your head as you watch them gallop away from you. He was great down to the first and met it lovely and gave me a lot of confidence, but he didn’t meet the second as well and that was that.”
Richard Johnson (Parsons Legacy, fell 22nd): “I wish I hadn’t fallen. He was dead right, but it was too far out to tell where we might have finished.”
Mark Walsh (Reveillez, brought down at the third) said: “It was disappointing to (only) get as far as the third, but he is a nice horse.”
David Casey (Offshore Account, 15th): “I had a great ride round and he jumped so well, but he hadn’t run over fences for over a year and it told on him in the end. He’s still a good horse to look forward to.”
Christian Williams (Big Fella Thanks, sixth): He’ll be a year older next year, and perhaps on softer ground you never know. He’s only a baby. I had AP (on Butler’s Cabin) upsides me so I knew I was in the right place. He’s got a slight cut on his hind leg and that may have made a slight difference, but if he improves again and comes back with a nice weight next year he could go close.”