Here is the second part of the initial look at the early prices for the 2009 Grand National. We’ve already had a quick scout through the following: Denman, Comply Or Die, Butlers Cabin, Snowy Morning, Iris De Balme and Hear The Echo.

Next up is:

King John’s Castle. Arthur Moore’s house was considered a doubtful stayer in some quarters as he had mainly contested over much shorter distances during his short career over fences. These doubts were in some ways put to bed by the horse finishing a gallant second to Comply Or Die, giving the winner 2lb. Time may show that to be a very useful performance but I just felt that Paul Carberry coaxed every ounce of stamina from King’s John’s Castle and I doubt that he will be able to get any closer to winning as he will undoubtedly be carrying more weight next year.

Miko De Beauchene will undoubtedly have his supporters. However, I am concerned about his chances on a number of points. Firstly, he had a very, very hard season in 07/08 with gruelling victories at Chepstow and Haydock as well as three other runs and such a hard season may take some recovering from. Secondly, he ran off a mark of 153 in the Scottish National (when pulled up) which would have given him 11st 9lb in this year’s National. Anything like that sort of weight in 2009 would surely be too heavy a burden to carry?

He is also obviously French bred and this is a bone of contention with stats followers given the poor record of French bred horses in the National. I see the poor record of his compatriots but doubt that I would be put off by a lack of stamina in a Welsh National winner. Far more worrying to me would be the amount of weight he would be likely to carry.

Next in the betting in some places is Himalayan Trail. A very interesting potential contender from the Sue Smith yard, much would depend how he shapes in the early part of the season as he is relarively inexperienced for a horse campaigning over marathon distances. A winner of three of his five races to date over fences, including the four mile + Midlands Grand National, Himalayan Trail would need to gain some extra experience for me to be very interested in him but without wrecking his current handicap mark of 141.  If he were to jump well in a couple of decent three mile handicaps in the early part of the season I would defintely have him on my shortlist.

Finally for today is Gwanako. Paul Nicholls’ young chaser ran a fine race to win the Topham in April ‘08 at the tender age of five years old. That win pushes him up to 151 and a six year old winning the National of a mark in the 150’s would require a herculean effort. Also, his stamina seemed to be nearing the end of its tether in the Topham and he would appear to have too much against him at this point.

Do you agree or disagree? Give us your thoughts on the above or any of the horses in the early betting for the 2009 Grand National.

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This entry was posted on Thursday, May 22nd, 2008 at 6:05 pm and is filed under Grand National 2009. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.