Grand National 2009: Character Building
August 3rd, 2008Grand National 2009
We had a request some time ago to run the rule over the chances of Character Building in our Early Betting series so it seemed a good opportunity to start a new series where we look at one horse in a bit of depth.
Character Building: Facts and Figures
Current BHB rating 138 – this would have equated to a weight of 10-8 in last year’s race so would potentially look pretty likely to get into this year’s race if fit and well.
Currently has run 13 times under rules, registering 3 wins with 7 of those runs coming over fences and 2 of the wins.
Background
Highlights of racing career so far would have to be in defeat when finishing ¾ of a length second to Butler’s Cabin in the 2007 National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham and a staying on 19l 3rd to Denman in the following season’s Hennessy.
Was well fancied for the 2008 National after the publication of the weights only to be withdrawn due to an injury shortly before the race.
Is sired by Accordion whose three highest rating progeny are all horses who have been successful over the minimum trip: Dato Star, Flagship Uberalles and Accordion Etoile. Granted there is also the likes of Albertas Run, An Accordion and Battlecry well up in the list of high ranking offspring but I just wonder if stamina might not be as guaranteed as first appears as it may just be that his defeat by Butler’s Cabin at Cheltenham was caused by his stamina coming to an end.
Positives and Negatives
The merits or otherwise of the 2007 NH Chase can be debated but I’m not sure it was the strongest race in depth with only three of the ten finishers going on to record a further victory. Hordago went on to win a race at Cheltenham but is very in and out, Butlers Cabin followed up in the Irish National after winning this race but now looks a law unto himself and Garde Champetre has only come to life since going over the Cross Country fences. Perhaps it didn’t take a great performance to finish runner up in this race even if it was at the Cheltenham Festival?
I also have to think that Character Building’s tendency to wander around in the finish must be seen as a negative. There are three earlier comments in his form where drifting or movement in the finish has been reported and whether this was a sign of a nagging injury or dislike for getting involved in a battle then it would be more than enough to put me off considering the length of the run in at Aintree. It could be that his enforced lay off may have ironed out his injury and his problems in the finish may not now be an issue, or that it was just inexperience, but I wouldn’t want to take that chance. Also, the trainer of the horse was not too pleased at the horse being raised 3lbs for finishing 3rd at Newbury in what he suggested was a race, the winner apart, that had not worked out too well.
Nor, as I have mentioned before, would I want to part with cash on a horse who has been off injured for nearly a year. Again, I appreciate Comply Or Die has managed it but if you keep backing horses who have been off injured for a lengthy period I believe you will end up losing money.
On the plus side for the horse is that he is trained by a very shrewd man in John Quinn. Running a near 20% strike rate in the last five years with his NH horses and showing a nice profit overall with his chasers, this trainer will ensure the horse has a good chance if getting to the race but there would be a few too many question marks to make him a play for me at the available odds.
Do you agree or disagree? Is Character Building your idea of the winner of the 2009 Grand National? What other horse would you like us to take a close look at on these pages?
Character Building is currently a 33/1 chance with SkyBet.
Pav Says:
August 4th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Thanks for that info. My impression also is that Character Building didn’t quite get home in the Cheltenham race. I haven’t ruled out Butler’s Cabin for next year’s National. He’ll be a better horse and hopefully not raised too much in the weights.
Daniel Says:
August 5th, 2008 at 9:28 am
I think Butlers Cabin could be the most likely winner at this stage, but all depends on the weight obviously.
Ive picked out Parsons Legacy, Garde Champetre & Royal County Star as good ante post bets so far. All three figures and all meet the stats (as far as possible at this stage)
Any thoughts?
SILVER BIRCH Says:
August 7th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Thanks admin for the detailed analysis - my concerns with character building at the mo is that he has only 7 chase runs to his name and has still to win a race over 20k which are normally strong prerequisites for a national winner . I agree he cant be ruled out of equations and he still has the winter to resolve the above shortcomings but he doesnt look much value at the current prices - anybody else have some thoughts ? - am i being harsh…
Daniel Says:
August 8th, 2008 at 10:37 am
If anything, if you look at the winners from the past 4 years, it would seem a low number of chase runs is a good thing. Yes they’ve all had more than 9, but none of them have had more than 14 either.
I wonder if the next stat to fall might be the ‘needs 9 or more chase runs.’
Either way I wouldnt rule character building out due to 7 chase runs. 3 next season before the national would put him on 10, which numebrsixvalverde won with in 2006.
Jimmy Boy Says:
September 2nd, 2008 at 6:01 pm
Thanks for your thoughts admin. There’s a fair bit to consider with Character Building. You mention his lack of stamina a possibility after finishing runner up to Butler’s Cabin, but come the National he could be a year older and round the peak of his stamina.
The first few races back from injury will be of great interest, and maybe he’ll win some and conform to more National winning trends.
Another of interest for a profile could be An Accordion
admin Says:
September 6th, 2008 at 11:51 am
Hi Jimmy Boy,
That’s a good point about Character Building being another year older and any possibility of of a question mark about resolution in a finish could also be improved by getting a few more races under his belt, if his fitness hold up. He’ll certainly be an interesting horse to watch in 08/09.
With regards to An Accordion, I’ll try and get a full profile on him on next week.
Jimmy Boy Says:
September 8th, 2008 at 9:45 am
Well played admin. Well played
Snake Plisken Says:
September 16th, 2008 at 6:40 pm
I’m looking forward to your profile on An Accordion as i think he’s a good sort and won two good races in the spring,if he keeps progressing then he could become a major player
Jimmy Boy Says:
September 23rd, 2008 at 4:42 pm
I retract my last post. 2 weeks I’ve been left waiting
admin Says:
September 25th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
Jimmy Boy,
An Accordion profile going on this afternoon.
Jimmy Boy Says:
September 25th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Good stuff admin. That last post was more in jest than an angry rant, I hope you know.
I look forward to reading your next piece of consistently excellent work
admin Says:
September 25th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
I thought so Jimmy - keep logging in and let us know if you want any others looked at - I’ll try and not be so tardy next time!!!!
Texas Pete Says:
October 13th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
What about Surface to air Admin,any thoughts?
admin Says:
October 13th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
Hi Pete,
I’ll have a look at Surface To Air and line him up as the next horse we look at. We are currently doing some updates behind the scenes so this might take a few days but it will defintely appear on the site in the near future. Thanks for contributing.
Texas Pete Says:
October 13th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
Ok admin cheers, keep up the good work !
wacky Says:
October 14th, 2008 at 10:26 pm
Hi Admin,Im back again with a horse from my fav stable ALAN KING.What do you think about OLD BENNY’s chance? I don’t like 8yr olds normally but they do win the national occasionaly!Owned by trevor hemmings who loves to win a national and the horse has won at 4 miles already.
admin Says:
October 14th, 2008 at 11:28 pm
Hi Wacky, We’ll certainly add Old Benny to the list to have a look at in the next few weeks. I think I promised a look at Hot Weld a while back as well so watch out for all three profiles in the near future.
Systemsman Says:
November 6th, 2008 at 9:23 pm
After todays Hurdle win this horse has to go into an early short list (my first). The trainer is clearly trying to protect the Chase OR rating of 138 (spot on for GN!!) and looks headed for GN with a perfect weight if OR stays the same. An early price should be considered for this one. What do you think?
” ¾ of a length second to Butler’s Cabin in the 2007 National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham and a staying on 19l 3rd to Denman in the following season’s Hennessy” (looks a good profile to me)
Recent form (excludes todays Hurdle win)vis RP:
01Dec07 Nby 27Sft Cl1
G3HcCh,85K 10-0 3/18 19L, Denman[8/1]
11-12 Denis O’Regan 135 112 135
21Apr07 Ayr 33GF Cl1 G3HcCh,96K 10-7 PU/23 Hot Weld[6/1] 9-9 Dougie Costello 134 — —
15Mar07 Chl 33GS Cl2 NvCh,30K 12-0 2/19 ¾L, Butler’s Cabin[7/1] 12-0 Mr Derek O’Connor 125 130 141
19Feb07 Mar 20Sft Cl3 NvHcCh,9K 11-12 1/6 3½L, Ice Melted[7/4J] 11-7 Mr Derek O’Connor 120 48 132
27Jan07 Chl 21Hy Cl2 NvHcCh,15K 10-0 4/10 12L, Flying Enterprise[4/1] 10-0 G Lee 120 113 127
03Dec06 War 26Sft Cl4 Ch,3K 10-12 1/6 2L, Get My Drift[15/8F] 10-12 Russ Garritty 111 97 128
Jimmy Boy Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
a fairly good win by Character Building yesterday. He’s now down to 20/1 with most bookies for the National.
I’d be interested in how much this win affects his rating and potential weight for the big one.
Systemsman Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
It was a Hurdle so his perfect 138 rating stands.
If the trainer is aiming for the GN dont expect this horse to finish in the first 4 for the Hennessy Gold Cup on Saturday 29th November at Newbury. I would expect 7th or worse but with a good early run in the first part of the race if the horse is aimed at the 2009 GN (this race will tell us a lot). Keeping the 138 rating untill the weights are published in early Feb 2009 is all important.
Stephen Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
It won’t affect his rating for the big one as it was a hurdle race that he won yesterday.
He is on a rating of 135 over fences at the moment and the winner usually is somewhere between 135 - 145, on average. So he has 10lbs to play with before the big day. A couple of warm up displays over fences to get him to that mimimum of 10 chases, with one win in a decent one, should see him bang on come April.
It’s just a case of staying within the rating range and I can see him becoming a leading player. 25s still available if you shop around, may be worth a small EW punt at this stage. If he run well over fences next time out then see that price tumble once more.
Systemsman Says:
November 7th, 2008 at 11:15 pm
Correct CB is rated 135 (I’ve doubled checked)so he can afford to go up a few pounds say 3 to 9 pounds. A good 5th/6th or 7th in the Hennessy would do.
I cant see the price getting better than 25/1 so time for a small early stake (Number 1 for 2009). Will wait on events before considering more (especiely when he has a rating of 138 to 144).
Systemsman Says:
November 9th, 2008 at 8:04 pm
Yes I agree in full Stephen. Worth a small early bet at 25/1.
Systemsman Says:
November 19th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
Have reassessed this horse who I rated early on but not sure now.
As an Each Way bet possible for 2,3/4th place at 25/1 (it will only go lower) but the profile is still not right for the winner. Has not run in 10 chases or won a £17,000 (or more)Chase, or Class 1 or 2 Chase. No RPR of 144 or more (very important!).
In my early assessment (admitadly it is still very early and lots of time for change)he scores 5 from 10 key trends.
There is a horse on 9/10 trends rating (9 is the max possible at this point in time as the 10th trend is three to five outings since August)but I will say more about that one after I have had a large anti post money on it in the next few days.
Daniel Says:
December 1st, 2008 at 5:18 pm
Come on then, spill the beans!
Ive had all my antepost bets for now. Did them in July/August. My Will at 330/1. Now trading at 50/1. Thank you very much!
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