Grand National 2009

We had a request some time ago to run the rule over the chances of Character Building in our Early Betting series so it seemed a good opportunity to start a new series where we look at one horse in a bit of depth.

Character Building: Facts and Figures

Current BHB rating 138 – this would have equated to a weight of 10-8 in last year’s race so would potentially look pretty likely to get into this year’s race if fit and well.

Currently has run 13 times under rules, registering 3 wins with 7 of those runs coming over fences and 2 of the wins.

Background

Highlights of racing career so far would have to be in defeat when finishing ¾ of a length second to Butler’s Cabin in the 2007 National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham and a staying on 19l 3rd to Denman in the following season’s Hennessy.

Was well fancied for the 2008 National after the publication of the weights only to be withdrawn due to an injury shortly before the race.

Is sired by Accordion whose three highest rating progeny are all horses who have been successful over the minimum trip: Dato Star, Flagship Uberalles and Accordion Etoile. Granted there is also the likes of Albertas Run, An Accordion and Battlecry well up in the list of high ranking offspring but I just wonder if stamina might not be as guaranteed as first appears as it may just be that his defeat by Butler’s Cabin at Cheltenham was caused by his stamina coming to an end.

Positives and Negatives

The merits or otherwise of the 2007 NH Chase can be debated but I’m not sure it was the strongest race in depth with only three of the ten finishers going on to record a further victory. Hordago went on to win a race at Cheltenham but is very in and out, Butlers Cabin followed up in the Irish National after winning this race but now looks a law unto himself and Garde Champetre has only come to life since going over the Cross Country fences. Perhaps it didn’t take a great performance to finish runner up in this race even if it was at the Cheltenham Festival?

I also have to think that Character Building’s tendency to wander around in the finish must be seen as a negative. There are three earlier comments in his form where drifting or movement in the finish has been reported and whether this was a sign of a nagging injury or dislike for getting involved in a battle then it would be more than enough to put me off considering the length of the run in at Aintree. It could be that his enforced lay off may have ironed out his injury and his problems in the finish may not now be an issue, or that it was just inexperience, but I wouldn’t want to take that chance. Also, the trainer of the horse was not too pleased at the horse being raised 3lbs for finishing 3rd at Newbury in what he suggested was a race, the winner apart, that had not worked out too well.

Nor, as I have mentioned before, would I want to part with cash on a horse who has been off injured for nearly a year. Again, I appreciate Comply Or Die has managed it but if you keep backing horses who have been off injured for a lengthy period I believe you will end up losing money.

On the plus side for the horse is that he is trained by a very shrewd man in John Quinn. Running a near 20% strike rate in the last five years with his NH horses and showing a nice profit overall with his chasers, this trainer will ensure the horse has a good chance if getting to the race but there would be a few too many question marks to make him a play for me at the available odds.

Do you agree or disagree? Is Character Building your idea of the winner of the 2009 Grand National? What other horse would you like us to take a close look at on these pages?

Character Building is currently a 33/1 chance with SkyBet.