i am going to try a tricast so i think my first 3 and maybe a slight rotation. anyone got any views please

only 9 days away and looking for some final tips.

my top 5 being:

Butlers Cabin
Character Building
Rambling Minister
Kilbeggan Blade (based on instinct – e/w long shot)
Brooklyn Brownie (like the look of him – e/w long shot)

as far as total surprises go im drawn to comply or die doing a double or irish invader causing an upset to the book of trends!

“We’re happy enough with him and you would think conditions at Haydock should suit him down to the ground,” said Quinn.

“We were happy with his run over hurdles at Doncaster lasttime and he has come out of the race in good form.

I am already on Character Building but will be backing him again prior to the race tomorrow.

Comply and Die has been ruled out of the Haydock race as the stable are not happy with him.

Lets try and get this list down on current info available.

Character Building 4pts E/W @ 33/1 25/1
Its probably all down to Saturday for this horse a good run and it looks well in at the weights for a place run at least, I’d say he got the best deal out of all from the handicapper. Solid consistent stayer, never fallen ever or UR only PU once. Never finished outside the top 4 in any race and has run well against top opposition, 2nd Butlers over 4miles at Chelts, 3rd behind Denman with Madison in 4th. Really fancied this last year has been campaigned with one target the GN, made sure I was on early this year.

Garde Champetre 4pts E/W @ 40/1
Love this horse I’m firmly on the bandwagon, it’d be great to have a first female jockey in Nina win it too. Got on entry list day, have always liked the horse and as soon as I saw him on the entry list my money went down quick before the price tumbled. Stays longer than the mother-in-law, very sound jumper and as the price tag suggests has a nice touch of class to compete in this company. Given luck in running can’t see him out of the first 4 home. The Silver Birch parallel is also very encouraging. Finally think this was given an absolutely cracking weight to win off.

Southern Vic 4pts E/W @ 33/1
Not a horse I fancied at first but backed on the advice of a few very knowledgable people, also ran my trends through it and like its profile alot ticks most of teh boxes nicely. Irish trained always a bonus too and Ted Walsh is a man who knows how to win this race. Likes soft ground so nicely covers that option if it should come up soft on the day. Again this one has been very well treated by the handicapper.

Butler’s Cabin 8pts win @ 20/1
Loved his run last year before Beechers as he was cruising comfortably. McCoy will be back on board so safe hands there, only negative for me is the huge hike in the weights was hoping he’d run off near bottom weight. Backed to win as he will either bolt up, fall or eat the starter. Yes the horse has previous of being a bit of a nutter. As for the FR thing Best placed French bred horse since 2000:
2000: Mely Moss – 2nd @ 25/1
2001: Blowing Wind – 3rd @ 16/1
2002: Blowing Wind – 3rd @ 8/1
2003: Montifault – 5th @ 33/1
2004: Clan Royal – 2nd @ 10/1
2005: Royal Auclair – 2nd @ 40/1
2006: Clan Royal – 3nd @ 5/1
2007: Liberthine – 5th @ 40/1
2008: Nadover – 7th @ 125/1

Himalayan Trail 4pts EW @ 33/1
Check out his Mids national win, ok he beat average opposition but the little bugger is still motoring on after 4miles and doesn’t put in a single bad jump, if it retains all that ability its gonna run a big race. Also transfering from Sue Smith to Jimmy Mangan is like going from Bristol City to Man Utd can’t have done the horse any harm. Has jumped round the national fences in the beecher in ground he would have hated too.

Hasn’t shown much recent form but Irish trainers like Mangan and Walsh are a bunch of fiddlers with their horses, they don’t show their hand before the big one, you sometimes have to take a leap of faith and don’t get too tied up in recent form, check out his horse Monty’s Pass finished 4 of 4 in a average hurdles race before thrashing everything and I mean thrashing. Mangan’s GN horses don’t always show it on the track they do their work at home. Now check the history, Papillon did nothing the same season before bolting up. Bobbyjo won one hurdles race and FA else before the big one!
Now I could be completely wrong and the horse is shot and will run no sort of race, but at 33/1 I think there is plenty of value there even just for place money.

Also like the following and have added to my list of ones to watch in case they put in a good show or there is a big market move for any of them:

Battlecry – needs a good run soon
Beat the Boys – probably won’t get in
Companero – probably won’t get in
Cornish Sett – unplaced horses don’t come back and win, genreally
Fleet Street – needs a good run soon
Ice Tea – probably won’t get in
Rambling Minster – will he run?

Lets hope we all do as well as last year I reckon about 90% made a good profit last time, personally got the winner and 2 places from 5 runners

Regards

Ian

LIST A
EXOTIC DANCER (FR) 9-11-10
CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02
WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-01
CHELSEAHARBOUR(IRE) 9-11-00
SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-00
CANE BRAKE (IRE) 10-10-13
ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13
COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12
STAN (NZ) 10-10-12
BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-10-11
PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-10-11
BALLYFITZ 9-10-10
KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 10-10-10
MIKO DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 9-10-10
MY WILL (FR) 9-10-10
L’ANTARTIQUE (FR) 9-10-09
STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08
MON MOME (FR) 9-10-06
BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05
HOBBSHILL 10-10-05
OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 9-10-05
REVEILLEZ 10-10-04
ENDLESS POWER (IRE) 9-10-03
GOLDEN FLIGHT(FR) 10-10-03
L’AMI (FR) 10-10-03
SIMON 10-10-03
CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-02
FLEET STREET 10-10-02
MUSICA BELLA (FR) 9-10-02
DARKNESS 10-10-01
SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00
HOT WELD 10-9-13
KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13
BROOKLYNBROWNIE (IRE) 10-9-12
CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-9-12
CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 10-9-12
HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12
TUMBLING DICE (IRE) 10-9-12
ARTEEA (IRE) 10-9-11
IDLE TALK (IRE) 10-9-11
ICE TEA (IRE) 9-9-10
MALJIMAR (IRE) 9-9-10
COMPANERO (IRE) 9-9-09
MATTOCK RANGER (IRE) 9-9-09
BAGAN (FR) 10-9-08
DIX VILLEZ (FR) 10-9-08
PATSY HALL (IRE) 9-9-08

LIST B
MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 8-11-08
SNOOPY LOOPY (IRE) 11-11-05
STAR DE MOHAISON (FR) 8-11-05
NOTRE PERE (FR) 8-11-04
NOZIC (FR) 8-11-03
AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (IRE) 11-11-01
IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 8-11-00
KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-10-13
OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12
HEAR THE ECHO (IRE) 8-10-11
ONE COOL COOKIE (IRE) 8-10-11
SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-06
PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-04
ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 8-10-03
FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-03
BATTLECRY 8-10-02
IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-01
RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01
SILVERBURN (IRE) 8-10-01
TRABOLGAN (IRE) 11-10-01
ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00
CERIUM (FR) 8-9-11
KELAMI (FR) 11-9-11
IRON MAN (FR) 8-9-09
NICHE MARKET (IRE) 8-9-09
BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 8-9-08
BIBLE LORD (IRE) 8-9-08
FLINTOFF (USA) 8-9-08
HOMER WELLS (IRE) 11-9-07
IN THE LOOP(IRE) 11-9-07

LIST Z
CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-01
OEDIPE (FR) 7-10-00
ZABENZ (NZ) 12-9-11

The next stage is based on the weights, which is complicated by guessing whether or not Exotic Dancer or Madison Du Berlais choose to line up. They will both go for the Gold Cup and general feeling is that this will be a race too much. Top weight could even fall to Cloudy Lane, currently on 11-2, which would raise all horses weights by 8 pounds. Horses carrying 11-3 or over don’t win nationals in modern times (1985 was the last time this occurred). So regardless of who is top weight we can immediately rule out:

EXOTIC DANCER (FR) 9-11-10
MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 8-11-08
SNOOPY LOOPY (IRE) 11-11-05
STAR DE MOHAISON (FR) 8-11-05
NOTRE PERE (FR) 8-11-04
NOZIC (FR) 8-11-03

Chances are both EXOTIC DANCER and MADISON DU BERLAIS will pull out after Cheltenham and weights will rise leaving several additional horses over the 11-3 mark. I am not going to totally eliminate those horses but they are falling into my doubtful lists – will track them in my further analysis but with lower ‘grading’ and more scepticism.

If just EXOTIC DANCER fails to show up weights will go up 2 pounds putting the following horses on unwinnable marks:

CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02
AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (IRE) 11-11-01
WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-01

The above are joining others in LIST Z.

If both EXOTIC DANCER and MADISON DU BERLAIS don’t run weights are up 5 pounds so the following join the above on 11-3 or more:

CHELSEAHARBOUR(IRE) 9-11-00
IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 8-11-00
SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-00
CANE BRAKE (IRE) 10-10-13
KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-10-13
ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13
COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12
OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12
STAN (NZ) 10-10-12

These poor souls are going into a new list, namely LIST Y.

Further weight analysis will be carried out once our choice of horses has thinned out somewhat.

I have spreadsheets and further comments on the above horses and lists if anyone would like them. E-mail called_andryka@yahoo.co.uk

At present there are 39 horses in LIST A (down 9), 21 in LIST B (down 9), 9 in LIST Y and 6 in LIST Z, 45 horses have been eliminated (a further six).

Later to today I will be removing those horses that won’t make the distance (a further fifteen!). Please let me know if the above doesn’t make sense to you.

Its not deliberate Sowland honestly so here is a reply.

“So how do we find the winner?
Take basic trends (ONE)
8 to 12 years old
handicap rating above 135 on the day
weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
won over at least three miles
run in at least ten chases
won a chase worth at least £17,000″

Yes it still stands but this was only Part 1 from last year – you need to look at the other parts as well.Some other points form oter parts.
These are also important.
RPR minium 144 (very, very important)
TS minimum 111 (but 128 or over best)
Won a Class 1 or 2 Chase (any kind)
2 to 7 prep runs (19 year trend)

Now the OR is a little bit more constroversal. On ten year trends you would use:
OR 136 to 144
But to play safe for the short list I am using
OR 135 to 146 (I would note exclude a point or two higher if carrying under 11.00 on the day). Having said all that I still am confident the winner will be OR 135 to 144!

Near the GN date you need to consider.
Last prep race 20 to 49 days before GN
Finished 1st/2nd or 3rd in a Chase(any kind) over 25f or more. Quite a few possible short list runners still need to do this.
33/1 or less on the day.

There are lots more and it depneds on how many trends you want to use and how dependable they are in you own view.

The starting point is Dan’s excellent short list of 25 (or is it 28 now).