Grand National 2009: Ante Post
Posted on December 16th, 2008 in Grand National 2009
*******UPDATED********
PLEASE POST ANTE POST TIPS/RESEARCH/COMMENTS ON THIS THREAD AND WIN A PRIZE!
I would like all the ante post comments on this thread – to encourage you I’ve got a little prize – the best ante post comment added to this thread by midnight 31st December will win a signed copy of Mick Fitzgerald’s Book Better than Sex
Please could you add your ante post comments/research/tips to this thread and not the Hennessy thread but you can copy YOUR posts from the Hennessy thread if you wish.
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This post has 832 comments
#1
December 16th, 2008 11:43
Cheers Mr Admin
How about a Welsh National post as well, given that it is arguably the best form guide for the Grand National itself.
#2
December 16th, 2008 14:30
Hi Daniel,
Yes, will get a Welsh National thread going in the next couple of days.
In the meantime have a look at our main page on the Welsh National and its relevance with regard to the big race itself:
http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/welsh-national-form.php
#3
December 16th, 2008 17:20
In todays Racing Post it was stated that from now on the top weight in the Grand National will be lowered by 2lbs (I cant remember if its 11.12 or 11.10 max).
I think this means that its even more likely that the winner will be currently OR 135 to OR 144 (and possibly only curretly OR 142 max – I could be very wrong about this ofcourse).
Will post the report when I can get it from the RP web site.
#4
December 16th, 2008 18:11
interesting stuff sytems man – that could be of importance – although i wish theyd stop tinkering about with this great race ….so in the past the top weight has has an or of 155 and wt of 11-12 – - which means historically the 11stone marker would have been about 143 – if the top weight is now 11-10 that would mean even better news for us 136-144 boys as there is an even greater likelihood that our fancies at the higher ceiling of 144 will in all likelihood carrying less than the 11 stone – although it all depends on who the topweight will be – do we think top weight will have or of 155 ? cos i guess thats what we are making all our assumptions on…
#5
December 16th, 2008 18:40
Quite right SILVER BIRCH. Everything depends on the topweight. If Halcon Genelardais runs off an OR of 164, Hear the Echo for example might well be running off 10-9 and C.O.D 10-12! If Comply or Miko are topweight off 152, it’ll all go up by 12 lb. Having said that, you can be sure the weights will not exactly reflect ORs at the time as horses with form in the race will be penalised.
So the question is, will this reduction to 11-10 be enough to entice a classy enough horse to throw the OR stat out the window? Probably not.
#6
December 17th, 2008 10:10
Has been between 155-158 in the past 5-6 years I think
#7
December 17th, 2008 11:28
Thanks Daniel – .. I rekon one horse to keep an eye on at a ridiculous price is trabolgan … yes hes been absent for a long time but hes been left on a mark of 151 – i believe he runs on sat . if he were to need that first run im sure the handicapper would knock off a further few pounds.. if perchance the top weight or this year happened to be 158 then we could have a previous hennessy winner lurking on the 11stone marker come april if the top weight is now 11-10..might not pan out like that and he has very fragile legs but one to keep a close eye on…
#8
December 17th, 2008 11:31
If you get on Betfair there are a fair few decent horses at ridiculous prices. Ok you’re relying on a few if buts and maybes to actually get them there on the day, but when you can get 300/1 and upwards, some are worth it.
Case in point is My Will. I noticed he met the trends (excluding OR) a while ago, so backed at 330/1 knowing that he was coming back this season having been off the track for 20 months or something. Now trading at 50/1!! Ok I doubt he’ll win, but if I have £10 at 330/1, I can afford to lay £30 at 50/1 and still be sitting pretty!
#9
December 17th, 2008 11:34
yip daniel . good point – ill go and have a nibble for a few pounds on trabolgan and sit back and c what unfolds.
#10
December 17th, 2008 12:09
Fascinating stuff. I think things may be a bit clearer before the new year with the Welsh National, King George and Lexus Chase all providing clues and also a better idea as to who will carry topweight (and importantly with what OR). Good showings from Cloudy Lane or Snowy Morning could impact. I’m going to stick my neck out and say Snowy Morning will be topweight with an OR of 160 to 162. I’ll also say that this puts Hear the Echo in with a great shout carrying no more than 11-0. Get on at 25s and watch the price tumble.
#11
December 17th, 2008 15:51
I’m sure many of you are already on the case, but there is a very useful tool on the BHA website where you can filter for all GB and IRE horses currently in training based on their current OR.
As we are all seemingly in agreement over the range we expect the winner to come from this can provide a good starting point for further anlaysis.
There are currently 138 horses with a chase OR between 136 and 147. I’ll be doing some further analysis to see which meet the other key trends at a later date.
#12
December 17th, 2008 16:02
Me again –
Quick correction to the above; the listing covers all horses trained in the UK, but NOT those trained in Ireland which is obviously a significant avenue we would want to include.
And on that note a contender for consideration – Mattock Ranger (trained by Noel Meade) and currently trading at 419/1 on Betfair.
This horse meets most of Systemsman’s early trends (needs one more chase win) and is off an OR of 137 currently. A decent performance in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas could turn this one into a very interesting candidate.
#13
December 17th, 2008 17:53
Interesting stuff about the handicap-as I mentioned early if perhaps Halcon Genelardais,say,or something similar to his rating runs (look at the weights for the Welsh National)then Miko De Beauchene, for example( those french breds again!)should be in on llst as would be Mr.Pointment. I think his massive weight of 11-11 in the National last year done him and looking at his first and second in the Becher, his only finishes in the top two since getting beat by Denman at Newbury, I think shows he’s an Aintree specialist and not wouldn’t be without a chance, and two more chase runs needed on 11st or thereabouts.
Back to the French. Looking at the betting there could well be ten to fifteen French breds running.
#14
December 17th, 2008 19:25
Hi Crisp – will be v interesting to c who ultimately gets top weight . re your halcon example above – u might want to trad with caution a bit .. lets say halcon is entered on 164 and miko and mr pointment are on 152. over the past few years the handicapper has compressed the handicap – so he might for example let halcon run of a mark of 158 to give it more of a chance . therefore halcon would have 11-10 based on the revised 158 but miko and mr p would still have 152 and have to carry 11-4ish … not an exact science but u can bet ur bottiom dollar the handicapper reduces the ors of the very best horses to give them a chance . unfort the horses in the middle bracket tend to suffer because of this as they are not getting as much weight from the very best horses but still having to concede the same weight to the 136 -147 club…hope that makes some kind of sense.. it will start to get really interesting if say a snoopy loopy or exotic dancer turn up and they run off approx 160 ..then the 11stone marker could be as high as 150…! and all of a sudden a lot more horses are in the mix… for the time being though im sticking to the 136 – 145 range which has served us so well for the past few years ..my only deviation from this at the mo is my crazy trabolgan bet
#15
December 17th, 2008 20:05
I was wondering if the last 4/5 National winners have been in the Betfair betting in December ?
#16
December 17th, 2008 20:56
Have now completed my study of all possible runners (in Odds Checker.com) up to 200/1. Will try to post a full report tomorrow night (sorry you will just have to wait a little longer). There could ofcourse be a winner currently lurking at over 200/1 but I doubt it.
#17
December 17th, 2008 21:41
Not had a chance to fully analyse these yet; but horses that meet most of my key trends and are available at big prices include:
Mattock Ranger 419/1; King Harald 249/1; Kilbeggan Blade 139/1; Garde Champetre 119/1 and Louping D’Ainay 349/1
More on these to follow later…
#18
December 18th, 2008 12:46
Mattock Ranger needs another chase win and hasn’t placed in a C1 race yet.
King Harald I agree with and asked about him previously.
Grade Champetre ive backed myself, but im not sure he’ll line up on the day now. More likely he’ll go to the cross country at Punchestown and then at the Cheltenham festival.
Haven’t done my home work on the other two yet.
#19
December 18th, 2008 21:51
Grand National Ante-Post 2009
Can we find the 2009 winner – YES we can! Part 2.
Well I have now completed a review of all potential GN runners listed on Odds Checker.com up to 200/1 and a number of other horses suggested by contributers to this web site. In all I have looked at 74 possible runners (its still possible I have missed the odd one at a very big price so let me know).
Using the mid December winners profile trends as a guide what did we find (the GN winner had achieved these targets by mid December in winning year)?
The trends were:
1. OR 136 to 144 (10/11 trend)
2. RPR rating 144minimum (9/10, 10 from 10 by 15th Jan)
3. Won case value £17,000 or more (11/11)
4. 3 Chase wins (any type) or more (9/10, 10/10 by 19th Feb)
5. Age 8 to 12 (12/12)
6. Completed in 10 Chases (9/10, 10/10 by 15th Jan)
7. Won over 24f or more (11/11, 9/11 at 25f or more)
8. Won Class 1 or 2 Chase-any type (11/11)
9. TS rating minimum of 111 (12/12, TS 128 or more 7/11)
RESULTS
There are 34 possible runners with a OR of 136 to 146 (I extended it a little to cover one or two good runners we could miss)
Of these 34 runners there are 22 possible runners with a OR of 136 to 146 AND a RRR minimum rating of 144.
Of these possible 22 runners there are 14 who also have won a Chase worth 17K or more.
The 14 are (and the very possible Grand National Winner 2009) – listed by lowest odds first, highest last
1. Butlers Cabin
2. Black Apalachi
3. Himalayan Trail
4. Chelsea Harbour
5. Parsons Legacy
6. Kilbeggan Blade
7. Iris de Balme
8. Endless Power
9. Garde Champetre
10. L Ami
11. Darkness
12. Southern Vic
13. Mattock Ranger
14. King Harold
Now how many pass all nine trends (with TS set at the lower 111) and are the most likely winner of the Grand national 2009?
ELEVEN!
These are in my order of merit with Star rating:
1. Butlers Cabin OR 138 (joint top). RPR 150, TS 131 *****
1. Himalayan Trail OR (joint top). RPR 145, TS 140 *****
3. Black Apalachi OR 146. RPR 158, TS 138 **** (Beecher Chase winners winning GN in same year? But its time they did!)
4. Darkness OR 143. RPR 156, TS 133 *** (if he runs)
4. Garde Champetre OR 144. RPR 154, TS 143 *** (won Class 2 only but good TS rating of 143)
4. Parsons Legacy OR 146. RPR 153, TS 141 (is this the year?) ***
7. King Harold OR 136. RPR 145, TS 140 (keep an eye on this one! Good 140 TS rating) ***
8. Kilbeggan Blade OR 141. RPR 145, TS 124 (low) *** (progressive but can he carry the extra weight?)
9. Chelsea Harbour OR 138. RPR 152, TS 122 (low). (TS 122, 9th last year!) **
10. Southern Vic OR 143. PRP 159, TS 146 (good) ** (last win Oct ‘06, only won at up to 24f)
11. L Ami OR 140. RPR 163, TS 165 (had his chance twice?) *
High Chimes and Over the Creek may also come into the picture at a later date.
Its possible I have made an odd mistake which I will put right in later posts. I may also have missed the odd big price selection at more than 200/1.
Now what do you think? Did I get the star rating right? Did I miss any?
Between us all we can find the winner and pay for a free family holiday this year – good luck everyone or is that good trends!
#20
December 18th, 2008 21:54
Himalayan Trail OR is 141
#21
December 18th, 2008 23:16
That is some fantastic work systemsman.Am i aloud to shorten your list?I have to knock out french breds so take out GARDE CHAMPETRE,L’AMI and BUTLERS CABIN.CHELSEA HARBOUR has to go as it got around last year and only horses that have fallen in the race before come back and win.(in recent years)Could you look into HOT WELD,HEAR THE ECHO,NEWBAY PROP and MATTOCK RANGER please SM.
#22
December 19th, 2008 08:19
Could someone give me an opinion on Lothian Falcon?
#23
December 19th, 2008 11:40
Lothian Falcon:
OR 135 (a bit low but still possible)
RPR 135 (too low – needs 144)
TS 116 (too low but possible)
Won 24k race Ok
Won C1 race Ok
Won 3 from 10 Cheases OK
Age 9 OkWon at 25f Ok
Main problem is the 135 RPR best rating so far – much too low. So on ratings so far he does not have the class/form (best RPR 135) or speed (best TS 116) to win – but this could change ofcourse.
#24
December 19th, 2008 14:29
thanks for your continued hard work,advice and research on our behalfs as i for one really look foward to your postings systemsman.i love the GN and have some luck but do not understand in depth as you and a few of the other lads and enjoy trying to follow you and learning as i did last year.can you give me your opion on a couple of horses.MR.POINTMENT who i thought ran a cracker last year but obviously got saddled with unwinable weight, but with less weight i feel has the makings and also CORNISH SETT who again ran very well and ran lacking a prep. run following a wind op.if fitter could he come into the reckoning.
#25
December 19th, 2008 15:41
My main 2 at this stage are Himalayan trail and high chimes. I got quoted 40/1 for high chimes by both Bet365 and ladbrokes. im sure this price will change after the welsh national. Im hoping High chimes finishes 2nd or 3rd in that race.
There some good french horses this year so is this the year the french will win????
Dont think i’ll be looking at that trend this year as im sure its only a matter of time before one wins especially how there a lot of french breds being put on the irish courses earlier.
#26
December 19th, 2008 15:52
Meant to add one of the frenc breds im looking at is Mon Mome.
How does this horse match up to mid december trends?
#27
December 19th, 2008 16:12
I dont think Mon Mome has quite got the class to win the big one. He’s a bit in and out as well and has a history of tailing off come the end of the season. I should know, i backed him ew last year!
Stats wise, well;
1. OR 148 (HIGH)
2. RPR rating 155 (good)
3. Has won a Chase worth more than £17,000
4. 5 Chase wins
5. Aged 8
6. 21 Chase runs (9 is the minimum, not 10 Systemsman! Minnehomma won with 9!)
7. Won over 24f or more
8. Won Class 1 race last time out
9. TS rating minimum of 150
So he’s rated well, but looks like his good win at Cheltenham last week may have pushed him too high in the weights.
#28
December 19th, 2008 19:06
Daniel “9 is the minimum, not 10 Systemsman! Minnehomma won with 9!”
Be fair Dan I was only giving trends for the last 10 to 12 years (which most people will use). Minnehoomma won in 1994 15 years ago with nine previous Chase runs as you say.
Looking back to 1994 (15 year trends)we can see that even 8 year olds have a very poor record.
Age of GN winner since 1994 (15 years.)
12 – 2/15
11 – 2/15
10 – 5/15
9 – 5/15
8 – 1/15
Like Silver Birch I’am also interested to know what others think about the possible GN top weight likely to run as this will have an impact on the chance of those on OR 145/146/147 (I still feel the OR 137 to 142 (current OR and up to 144 (on day) looks the place to find the winner. I resisted putting an ante-post bet on Black Apalachi today because of this (current OR 146)- what I right to hold back?
#29
December 20th, 2008 14:37
Dont worry, I wasnt knocking your work!
Personally though I like to go a bit further back; 10/10 trends will mean you come undone every now and then.
In fact, with the increasing trend of big races going to more unexposed horses over the past few years, I wont be ruling out any horse with 8 chase runs this year.
#30
December 20th, 2008 18:39
Hi Guys,Newbay Prop got its head in front at Navan today and i wander if anyone thinks it could have a chance next april?This horse has already won a £73,000 chase at LEOP and run some good races in defeat behind comply or die in the eider,Priests leap in the thyestes and hear the echo in yhe irish national.Its a well bred horse out of Roselier which is known for its long distance winners.It also has very few miles on the clock for a 10yr(next year)How does it stand up on ratings please Mr Systemsman?
#31
December 21st, 2008 20:44
What do you think of battlecry’s chances systems man only 1 chase win but 4 seconds and his OR is 145. I’ve noticed he’s drifted heavily on Betfair for the wesh nat so i don’t think he’ll be involved there!
#32
December 21st, 2008 21:12
Battlecry
OR 145 (possibly OK)
RPR 154 (Good)
TS 132 (Good)
Won 3k Chase (Far too low needs 17k)
One chase win (Far too low so far – needs 3)
Age 7 (too young needs to be 7 to 12)
Won Clss4 Chase (much too low – needs class1 or 2)
Won at 17f (much too short,needs 24f minimum or more)
Novice last sessio (poor tred)
So profile not looking too good is it Texas?
#33
December 22nd, 2008 12:10
Correction it should read
“Age 7 (too young, needs to be aged 8 to 12)”
#34
December 22nd, 2008 13:32
One other horse to consider may be gypsy george … loads of stamina , won 3 chases , one = 19k – his ts and rpr are way off the mark though – however if this horse was to run well at chepstow in the welsh nat – i.e in the first three .. hed be up to about 0R Of 138..i would assume his rpr would increase accordinly too , so its his TS thats the achilles heel . not advocating a bet on him yet but worth keeping an eye on on sat
#35
December 22nd, 2008 13:55
Technically, won’t every horses age go up on the new year, which would mean Battlecry would be 8 years old. However, as systemsman has pointed out, he doesn’t look too clever with all the stats factored in.
#36
December 22nd, 2008 14:43
Thats also my interpretation Jimmy Boy – as such all my analysis to date is on horses currently aged 7 – 11, on the basis that the age stats will be right for these come the 2009 National.
Having said that, I also agree with yourself and Systemsman that Battlecry looks a poor trends pick; especially given no 3m chase wins (he does have a 3m win over hurdles)
A further strong trend is for horses to have at least placed over 27f+ prior to the National – Battlecry has never competed over more than 25f.
Overall, a horse that could certainly improve to meet all key trends in the coming year, but probably not one for the 2009 National.
#37
December 22nd, 2008 15:18
If he has a good season we may be discussing him in a year’s time for the 2010 National if his career progresses
#38
December 22nd, 2008 17:37
28 left in the welsh national now after 2day …. potential aintree contenders still engaged for sat are joe lively,always waining,darkness ,mon mome, high chimes plus the classier topweights halcon gen and miko de beauch – character building has been scratched
#39
December 22nd, 2008 17:52
sorry probably should have put the above in the welsh national thread .. oops sorry admin….
#40
December 22nd, 2008 18:52
Re: Age
As far as I am aware its the date of birth of each horse that you use to determine age not an 1st Jan each year – or am I wrong? Its certainy appears to be what the Racing Post site uses to determine age of past GN winers and the age of any current runners in any race.
#41
December 23rd, 2008 00:29
Hi Systemsman –
In response to the age question I think the RP also takes 1 Jan as the point to increase each horses age, as is standard for NH racing.
I looked into this when the ‘date foaled’ information started becoming available.
For example, in the RP analysis of last years Grand National – Race was run on 5th Apr 2008, Cloudy Lane foaled 18/02/2000 treated as an 8 yo on the racecard, as would be the case under either system. Chelsea Harbour also shown on the racecard as an 8 yo, however not foaled until 04/05/2000 so technically would not reach 8th birthday in human terms until a month after the National.
As such for any analysis done before the end of 2008 we should consider horses shown as age 7-11, rather than 8-12. Obviously as only 2 of the last 20 renewals have been won by 8 yo’s this probably wont have done too much damage in terms of identifying the winner.
Another name for the hat – SIMON. Admittedly not the best track record in the National, but seems the right type, and has the trends firmly in his favour this year; only nagging doubt would be the weight an OR of 146 will equate to on the day – anything more than 11′1 would put me off.
#42
December 23rd, 2008 10:12
backing a horse who has fallen twice in previous Nationals will get you nothing but a nasty bank balance!!
That horse is just too small for the fences.
#43
December 23rd, 2008 12:28
Thanks Gammmers for the age clarification – will also not exclude some current 7 (and 7 to 11 range)year olds who will be classified 8 on Jan 1st.
Simon:
OR 146 (just changed from 148)- i had him on my short list in 2007.
RPR 159 (very good)
TS 151 (very good)
Won 57k chase
5 Chase wins from 20 runs (very good)
Age 9 (now) (OK)
Won C1 race.
But and its a big BUT as Daniel points out GN record ‘O7/F, 08/UR (he has not finished in a place which is not so bad). With a possible 11.01 give or take a pound or two not looking so good. If he had an OR of 138 I would be interested.
Any more opinions on the ante-post short list of say three aganst the field anyone?
Problem for me is that some possible good runners have no price available in main the Hight Street bookies yet (like High Chimes and King Harold).
#44
December 23rd, 2008 12:51
Agreed Systems.
Butler’s Cabin seems the stand-out for the time being (even if he is a french bred). I see he has a hurdles run lined up over xmas to protect the handicap mark; all roads lead to Aintree for that one, I would say.
Simon, Parsons Legacy and Black Apalachi all have a profile to rival Butlers, but will be carrying in the region of 11′1 as you say, which is a concern.
Of the ones outside the ‘perfect profile’ brigade, I like the looks of Mattock Ranger, King Harald, Kilbeggan Blade and Himalayan Trail. All have lower OR’s than the three above, but would want to see their names on the list of initial entries on Jan 29th before I part with any cash.
You did say 8 against the field, right….?!
#45
December 25th, 2008 21:06
I always keep an eye on prices on Odds Checker.com to see the price trends (ups and downs.
Butlers Cabin price history on Betfair.
Some miner ups and downs between these prices but the trend is down, down, down.
09.08.2008 23/1
01.12.2008 21/1
11.12.2008 17/1
25.12.2008 33/2
I think it may go off Joint Fav with Comply Or Die (who will have too much weight. Denman wont run).
20/1 still available with Corals – how much longer?
#46
December 26th, 2008 20:15
Price Update on Betfair: Some big movers.
Butlers Cabin now 31/2 (having been as low at 15/1, was 33/2 previously) on Betfair with Xmas money.
Black Apalachi down to 22/1 (from 23/1, previously, 25/1 on 10.12.2008).
Cloudy Lane now 25/1 (from 33/1 on 25.12.2008)
Old Benny 35/1 (from 69/1 on 22.12.2008)
An Accordion 35/1 (from 84/1 on 24.12.2008)
#47
December 27th, 2008 10:15
Has anyone heard anymore re Trabolgan . hes nowdown to 148 after his first run of the season ? this is my crazy bet for the national…it may never happen but if he runs again a couple of times he may be an interestin outsider … anybody an views on this one ?
#48
December 27th, 2008 16:23
hi all,just watched the welsh nat.did no good as i backed beat the boys,but on this string 19/12 i did ask systems man and the other more knowlidgeable chaps if CORNISH SETT could be involved in april as i have backed him at 100-1 with hills if you have time i would really be interested in your views even if bad news.
#49
December 27th, 2008 18:26
Cornish Sett has a definite chance now, Nicholls says GN is he aim, he is good though perhaps not perfect on Systems’ ratings, I think, and his Welsh Nat. 2nd puts him good with thirty six year old profile trends(top 5 hennessey, a top 2 finish in Welsh, Irish or Scots Nationals, top2 in race over GN fences, three 3mile wins with at least one at 28f or five 3mile wins). In the hands of the handicapper now. Does appear though as he would want it soft now although he won on good firm in his younger days and would need to break 32 year trend of previous year unplaced to next year winner.
#50
December 27th, 2008 18:43
SB; re:Trabolgan. I did read somemwhere that his jockey said he was sound during the race and only pulled him up due to lack of fitness.
#51
December 27th, 2008 20:37
Howdy folks . i would have to say after today u can safely draw a line under darkness , high chimes gypsy george and mon mome …. i have now reassessed my top6 .. they are now
1. Himalayan Trail
2. Butlers Cabin
3.Hear the Echo
4. Southern Vic
5. Black Apalachi
6. Over the Creek
#52
December 27th, 2008 23:38
Good list Silver Birch which I dont disagree with much. Will do some reassesment and come back with my ammended list in the next 7 days (I wont to study all the xmas races in detail and not rush things). The top two will not change however.
Joint 1st: Himalayan Trail (OR 139) and Butlers Cabin (OR 138).
It is clear they are both aimed at the 2009 GN
Note on Price: Butlers Cabin is now 16/1 with 8/17 bookies on Odds Checker.com.
Note of Butlers Cabin being French Bred: If Butlers was to win the 2009 GN (a big if at this stage) we would still be able to say “French Bred” do not win the GN if they have ever run one or more races in France! Butlers Cabin has never run in France.
#53
December 28th, 2008 22:09
Sorry guys but CORNISH SETT can’t win the national as it finished the race last year and only horses that have fallen can come back and win according to the stats.Sorry but i will be laying BUTLERS CABIN as well cause french breds don’t win even if they haven’t run in france.Has anyone looked at my shortlist so far?Get the feeling im being ignored!!But if you don’t want my help just say so?MERRY XMAS
#54
December 29th, 2008 10:02
Hi Wacky – good to have u back for 2009 … where is ur list .. i havent seen it.. have u posted it on this thread ?
#55
December 29th, 2008 13:09
Wacky is this your complete ante-post short list?:
HOT WELD,HEAR THE ECHO,NEWBAY PROP and MATTOCK RANGER.
If so (please let me know) i will have a look and give my opinion for whats its worth.
#56
December 29th, 2008 15:34
Hi Guys,I bought Jumpers to follow 2008-2009 and from that i’ve sorted a few out that could fit the stats next april.This isn’t my shortlist it is possibles as its a long road to Liverpool.HEAR THE ECHO,HOT WELD,MATTOCK RANGER,MISTER TOP NOTCH,NEWBAY PROP,PRIESTS LEAP and ROYAL COUNTY STAR are the ones i,ve unearthed so far.What do you think guys?
#57
December 30th, 2008 00:37
Hi All
Of the horses on Betfair for this years National, Dad previously had a BIG win on L’Aventure and a HUGE win on Iris De Balme @100/1 in the Scottish National ‘08.
Thanks to all for all the great stats and carmaraderie last year -looking forward to this years. My family originally came from Cork and had horses at that time and after.
I had great fun going back and forward to my Dad, Souter, last year with all the latest tips, assessments and developments appearing on here, of which he eagerly awaited. He’d been ill on and off for a long time, and passed away this month. I shall miss him so much during these months leading up to the Big Day, so I suppose I will just have to annoy you lot…
He was a fan of Hot Weld and looked for him at Aintree last year. As for myself, I fancy Snowy Morning going 2 places better this year. Oh well – Merry Christmas and a Great ‘09 to you all.
#58
December 30th, 2008 10:27
So Sorry to hear about your dad passing away showlad…our thoughts are with you and ur family and hopefully some of the banter and craic on this site will help you get through a very difficult time .im sure the spirit of your dad is still with us on this site and hopefully youll be cheering home the winner come april with your old dad cheering it on from the high heavens … good luck and best wishes for 2009…
#59
December 30th, 2008 12:07
Sincerest apologies to you Showlad.
It would be great, and incredibly fitting, if something like Hot Weld went on to the race and won!
#60
December 30th, 2008 15:00
Thanks for your kind words SILVER BIRCH and Jimmy Boy. Dad flled his boots with a great return on Comply or die at this year’s National thanks to you all n thi site.
He’ll definitely be with us all again in the coming months, as we get on this bloody mad but fantastically Merry Horse we call ‘Picking the National Winner’ lol. Go Hot Weld!
#61
December 30th, 2008 17:06
My Deepest sympathy Showlad.I share a great love of horse racing with my father and can only imagine what you are going thru at this festive time.Lets hope HOT WELD can get to L’pool and your dad’s spirit can lift it over every fence to victory.When we find the winner of the national and have collected our winnings i would like to make a donation to the charity of your choice.Sorry even if i don’t win i will do so.
#62
December 30th, 2008 20:11
Thanks a lot Wacky.
We took a donation for MacMillan Nurses at his funeral.
My Dad, Souter, was an amazing fun man. To give you an idea his funeral songs were ‘Wish me luck, as you wave me goodbye – Gracie Fields’ and ‘The Boys in the Backroom – Marlene Dietrich’, lol
He had an amazing life, full of love and laughs. Mind you if he starts whispering “Hot Weld” when I’m on this site, I’ll jump out of my seat!
#63
December 30th, 2008 23:50
I did tell a little white lie Showlad,as i do know what you are going thru as my father was diognosed with cancer in sept 2007.He was put on a trail and has responded very well so far.Its a horrible disease and i hope your dad didn’t suffer for to long?I hope we find the winner next year and can dedicate it to ‘the boys in the backroom’.If you can have a listen to NOTHING ELSE MATTERS by METALLICA.I will make that donation i PROMISE.
#64
December 31st, 2008 01:33
sorry for your loss Showlad, both my parents have been rather ill this past year and its been so draining, my mum after several ops got the all clear yesterday, luckily. Long periods of illness of loved ones are hard to endure and my thoughts go out to you. We’ll all be glad to see the back of 2008 thats for sure, one of my few highlights and escapisms was this blog, the opinions, characters, number crunchin and it was the best build up to my luckiest favouritest race!
I would also like to say your dads tip Hot Weld caught my eye in the past and I was awaiting some interest for him, but he’s gotta get back racing and show some form soon. Hope he gets there and runs well for your dad.
#65
December 31st, 2008 02:19
Thanks Wacky and KJ.
Well it’s now officially the last day of this year..
A Great Year for this site and let’s hope an even better one in ‘09.
As we can see from these recent posts, this site is much more than stats and forecasts. We all share the love of horses and of a passion for the Greatest Horse Race in the World. But it’s also clear that whatever we are going through, good times or bad, this site is something we all enjoy spending time on and sharing with on.
It’s a welcome, friendly link for us all to this most fascinating of hobbies.
So a thanks goes out to Admin and all for making it possible.
#66
December 31st, 2008 12:31
I would like to take this oppertunity to wish everyone on this site HEALTH(most important)WEALTH and HAPPINESS for 2009.I hope your dad will HEAR THE ECHO Showlad when we shout home the national winner next year!!!Oh and before i go a big well done to HAYLEY TURNER for reaching 100 winners this year.Thanks admin for 2008 its been a blast.Cheers wacky
#67
December 31st, 2008 12:49
I echo the sentiments. May everyone have a great, and prosperous, 2009.
It will only be a month or so when horses are declared, and then weights start getting published, and we can all get down to some healthy debate and discussion. Let us hope we’ll find the winner in 2009 as we did this year with our friend Comply Or Die.
#68
December 31st, 2008 22:17
Happy New Year to everyone.
I want us all to win this year and spend the money on our family holidays!(start dreaming it can be true!)
New Year Eve money review from Odds Checker.ocm
BLUE = Odds shortening
RED = Ods drifting (but it can change again!)
Now where is the serious money going on GN 2009?
“Follow the money”
Butlers Cabin 16/1 (back down to its almost lowest point again [has been 15/1 once] BLUE
Hear The Echo 20/1 (suck around this mark for some time) BLUE
Snowy Morning 22/1 (stuck around this mark, with ups and doens for some time) BLUE [too much weight!]
Himalayan Trail 33/1 (general trend is clearly dowm with ups and downs)BLUE
My Will 37/1 (trend is very much down) BLUE – msut research this one!
Chelsea Harbour 54/1 (stuck around tis mark for some time, has as lowe as 47/1) BLUE
Garde Champetre 79/1 (has been as low as 59/1 so lost of ups and downs) good value. BLUE
Not a bad short list is it? (looks like they read this site!)
REDS – Drifters (but plenty of time for change again so be careful)
Comply or Die – too much weight!
Black Apalachi – surprising
Notre Pere
Madison Du Berlais
Nozic
Simon
Old Benny
An Acordion
Air Force One
Abbeybraney
Royal County Star
#69
January 1st, 2009 20:19
Hi guys,
The winner of the Mick Fitzgerald autobiography for the best post on this thread by 31st December is detailed in this new thread:
http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/uncategorized/grand-national-ante-post-prizewinner/
Thanks to all who posted and watch out for further competitions.
#70
January 2nd, 2009 11:05
After his new year’s day victory I think Rambling Minster has put himself right in the picture. Quite solid on ten year trends and perfect profile in comparison to 36 year trends as he has won four chases at 3m or more -three is required- with the added bonus that he has won at four miles. His performance in Tommy Whittle chase last season is interesting, gave 9lbs to Cloudy Lane and finished ten lengths behind him and gave 7lbs to Comply Or Die and finished six and a half lengths behind him. Only negative at the moment is that he is not quoted with many bookmakers!
#71
January 2nd, 2009 11:11
Anyone heard any news on Denmnan? I ask because of the drop in his Betfair price. People now want to back at 22 and the best you can get is 17.5! This is in addition to the drop in Hear the Echo’s price. If Denman were to run, this would put Hear the Echo and even C.O.D bang in with a chance at the weight. I suppose the Hear the Echo move could be because of Motre Pere’s impressive Welsh National win franking HtE’s Irish National form.
PS Admin. I posted recently that the OR of the topweight could be 160, leaving Hear the Echo to carry about 10-13 putting him in to the reckoning and suggesting 25/1 was a great price that wouldn’t be around long. This was removed, is there any reason why? As I’d like to contribute and think this is a valid point. Also, 25/1 didn’t last long (now generally 16/1 and shortening!
#72
January 2nd, 2009 11:18
Good post Notelppa – as systems man and i think myself commented before xmas – the top or rating could be absolutely crucial this year …evbodys been working on the assumption its gonna be about 155-156. but what happens if it is as high as 158 -160 … ?then horses like hear the echo (149) come into play – ive got him on my shortlist and will be backing him over the coming month as you cant afford to ignore an irish national winner potentially running in the national with 10-13 or – 11-0 . like yourself there are a few people keeping a close eye on this fella over the next few weeks…
#73
January 2nd, 2009 11:22
Crikey – ive just gone onto oddschecker and hear the echo has been cut into 14s and 16s in some places for the national …! do u think the bookies are scanning this site
– devastated – hes plenty short enough now. anybody any ideas why the plunge on this horse this morning – is it because denman might be national bound thus raising the top or ?
#74
January 2nd, 2009 12:47
Could this be a clue? Taken from the RP website, an interview with Paul Nicholls on New Years Day included the comment below:
Asked whether Denman – who has not raced since undergoing treatment for an irregular heartbeat – might be given an entry in the Grand National, Nicholls added: “We’ll have to talk about it, but if Paul and Harry want to enter him, I’ll enter him.”
Nicholls and Findlay have also expressed enthusiasm for making an audacious assault on France’s premier jumps race, the Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris, at Auteuil in May.
#75
January 2nd, 2009 13:29
Hi All. HAPPY NEW YEAR! Well pointed out Notelppa, Just got Echo @20s on VC – thanks. Ha, next sec they’ve just taken him to 16s lol!
Wacky, Silver Birch, Jimmy Boy, KJ etc feel free to drop me a line anytime – gmpromos@blueyonder.co.uk Be good to touch base.
Systemsman well done on your award
I suppose now it’s that game of weighing up the great early odds, against the chance of being stung by a subsequent no Show..
#76
January 2nd, 2009 14:41
hi everyone found this blog close to last year’s grand national, really enjoyed everyone’s comments,in answer to silver birch i think hear the echo’s price changes are due to andrew barr’s comments in his mark your card column in the racing post weekender,he advised an eachway interest due to promising hurdle run recently.I have a small interest on hear the echo @ 33/1 so iam hoping for a nice weight.
#77
January 2nd, 2009 15:12
I think Denman’s owners want the horse to become immortal and what better way to do it? The prize money’s so good (£1/2m to the winner – which is nearly as much as he’s won in his career to date) that they may not be able to resist it. If he does want to win the race, they’ll probably want to give him 2 cracks at it meaning he’d have to run this year.
I reckon Denman will be entered to at least see what sort of mark the handicapper throws him in at and I think with the reduction in the topweight to 11-10, the organisers are specifically trying to get him to run and I reckon he’ll be leniently treated (off, say 176). Out of interest, does anybody know if the bottom is changing with the reduction in the topweight? If it’s 10-0 and Denman runs off 176 (current OR 182), then anything with an OR of 151 or less would be out of the handicap, leaving the shortlist very, very short if the trends are to hold up this year. I certainly wouldn’t want to be on anything with an OR of <140.
#78
January 2nd, 2009 21:09
Notelppa “then anything with an OR of 151 or less would be out of the handicap, leaving the shortlist very, very short if the trends are to hold up this year. I certainly wouldn’t want to be on anything with an OR of <140.”
I will make one confident prediction about the GN 2009 – Denman will not run in it!! I can see him being listed just as an insurance policy (this often happens every year with a few good horses) but there are far better (and less dangerous) races for a horse with such talent (and worth so much). If you owned this horse would you want to risk his chance for another tilt at the Gold Cup in 2010 whatever happens in 2009 (I think he will win again for whats ist worth and a 2010 tilt at the GN might just be a possability).
I am going to take a risk and place all my early bets on the fact that Denamn is not the top weight on the day (even if he is when the weights are published and I can see that happening).
Now Hear the Echo is OR 149 and I expect will get well over 11 stone and cannot win. Howeevr if he was to run with. If he get under 11 stone on the day he in with a cance – one to watch for the moment – -thats my view anyway. His profile looks good but that OR 149 – every year I am tempted to look at runners in the 145-150 range but every year they LOSE!! (OR144 or under is a 11/11 trend). I guess it will happen sometime but I’ll take the risk for now.
#79
January 3rd, 2009 11:08
I absolutely agree Systemsman, on your analysis IF Denman doesn’t run. However, I think we have to admit it’s a possibility now. Every bookie has introduced him into the betting, all as favourite and many at single figures. As you say, “follow the money”. Even if it’s unlikely, I think we need to look at all the angles.
#80
January 3rd, 2009 11:18
I presume people have seen the Racing Post?
“BRILLIANT Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Denman will be entered in this season’s John Smith’s Grand National and trainer Paul Nicholls is “coming round to the idea of running him” in the Aintree spectacular.
The nine-year-old is due to reappear in the Aon Chase at Newbury next month before defending his crown at Cheltenham. At time of writing he was a16-1 chance for the National.”
If Paul Nicholls is “coming round” by which I presume he means “resigned to” the fact, I think we have to take it seriously. OR 136 – 144 is out of the window (even if for this year and poss next only), I’d say.
#81
January 3rd, 2009 16:50
Well ,well,well this old denman for the grand national is gathering pace. I admire u systems man for holding ure nerve with the 136 -144 approach but im going to start a second shorlist based on denman running as it completley undoes everything we have been working towards in the past few months
WITHOUT DENMAN
1. Himalayan Trail
2. Butlers Cabin
3.Hear the Echo
4. Southern Vic
5. Black Apalachi
6. Over the Creek
WITH DENMAN
A GUESS OF AN OR OF 172
1. Hear the Echo 10st -1
2. Air Force One 10st -13
3.State of Play – 10st 4
4. Snowy Morning – 10st -12
5 . Trabolgan – 10st
6. Black Apalachi – 9st 12
#82
January 3rd, 2009 19:23
What a farce the race would turn into if Denman runs!
A horse like that needs to stick to the Gold Cup and leave The National as the people’s race. It would throw the handicap into disarray. You’d think Harry Findley has enough money to splash around without needing the extra prize money.
#83
January 3rd, 2009 19:28
Whether or not Denman runs there are still trends to look for. The last thirty six winners have placed; top 5 hennessey, top2 in Irish, Welsh, Scots (or even USA)National, top 2 in race over
#84
January 3rd, 2009 19:33
Reaction from the handicapper…
This answers my earlier question, 10-0 is bottom weight. One fact I’m not keen on as an Echo fan is that the jockey put up 7lb overweight when winning the Irish National with 10-0. Still, if they needed to find an experienced jockey to do the weight, there’d be a queue.
BHA head of handicapping Phil Smith has admitted he faces “a challenge” in deciding what rating Denman should run off if the Gold Cup winner is allowed to take his chance in the John Smith’s Grand National.
If Denman runs off his official mark of 182, or indeed anything close to that, the vast majority of horses in the contest would be likely to carry just 10st but would also be required to race from out of the handicap.
Smith said: “It will be an interesting puzzle to try and decide what to do with Denman. On the one hand, I’ve got to try and give him what I think is a fair chance of winning, but I also don’t want to disadvantage the rest of the field. It will be a balancing act and once I see the entries it will be easier to make the decisions.
“It’s a challenge, but it will be less of a problem for me than the 20-odd jockeys who are going to have to do 10st.”
Also, what do people now think of the chances of a repeat performance from Comply or Die? 20/1 looks good for the best stayer. I think he still has the beating of Snowy Morning and all the other finishers from last year’s race.
#85
January 3rd, 2009 19:36
Sorry, unfinished post …. top2 in race over GN fences or three chase wins at 3miles. A dual National winner? If Denman does run Comply/Silver Birch in with a great shout. Regarding Hear The Echo. He has 3 career falls and discounting previous falls at Aintree the last 12 winners have only had one career fall or less.
#86
January 3rd, 2009 22:22
I think the bookies are laughing all the way to the bank robbing people for bets on Denman (it wont happen – just look at how many times this has been suggested in the last few years with top horses that might win a Gold Cup). I’am happy to lose the GN 2009 on my prediction (but ofcourse I will consider an insurance policy or two later if needed).
Should Denman run (can you hear me laughing in the background) then yes oher runners are to be considered such as:
Hear the Echo
Comply Or Die
Snowy Morning
etc (both Silver Birch’s lists were very good). Intersting both Hear The Echo and Black Apalachi are on both so may be worth a SMALL ante-post insurance policy soon)
But well done Crisp 73 for pointing out that Denman or no Denman there are certain trends that have to be loked for and I will take a look at your excellent list again you gave me much to think about with regard to my own short list.
#87
January 4th, 2009 13:32
After further assessment and the impracticalities of having 12 horses to try and cover on 2 lists , i have created an amalgamated list of the best 6 from the 2 with and without denman lists
revised 6 on my short list after the denman added dimension
1. Himalayan Trail
2. Black Appalachi
3. Hear the Echo
4. State of Play
5. Butlers Cabin
6. Snowy Morning
#88
January 4th, 2009 22:11
gosh! ok so if Denman is entered
then the weights are allocated
then he is withdrawn at a latter stage, which I still think is the most likely outcome..
most other horses will be off such a low weight the stats are out the window!!!
It’ll be a fun twist and a fair chance for previous winners for a change.
#89
January 5th, 2009 00:29
I’ve been looking at all these early discussions here along with the bookies… I think so too!!!
and who cares, still going to give my honest opinion
who knows looks like we could all be wrong this year haa! haa!
I do like to watch for future winners and no hopers, basically jumping, travelling, staying power
and my current feelings of these (horses I have seen)is
I like Himalayan Trail but what has it beaten? has he enough experience? seems to like springtime!
Black Appalachi impressed last time, has form.
Saw one recent race with Chelsea Harbour in who jumped horrifically, taking out other horses, for this reason I would avoid him and may I suggest jockeys do too!
If it snows again, snowy could do well hee, hee
Joe Lively won’t stay, (to recap neither will Simon)
and Joe should go to cheltenham.
Comply or Die is a worry, not because of the weight he’ll carry but because of his reappearance races, either he wants only aintree fun or he has completely lost ‘compliance’ interest in racing.
My Will is an interesting entry as he is a classy jumper/stayer. systemsman any analysis on his statistical measuring up yet?
Cornish Sett could be my dark horse as he is like a new horse! and stays all day.
I’ve heard at various points certain horses are out injured too including Iris de Balme that someone mentioned recently and Silver Birch and KJC.etc. can we somehow clarify this list please.
#90
January 5th, 2009 00:57
on the weird front, recent ‘lucky’ trend has been for horses with two words starting with same letter, so if that continues the winner/runner up could be
Mon Mome or An Accordian
#91
January 5th, 2009 13:41
good posting kj and i totally agree with your comments,but the other horse i have issues with is the well fancied hear the echo.surely his jumping qualities ar’nt upto gn.i also agree about cornish sett and as i have already stated on this thread i have backed him last may at 100’s e/w.my dark horse is mr. pointment also backed may at 50’s e/w.if he has more realistic winnable weight he will go very close i am sure.
#92
January 5th, 2009 16:34
Good list (accounting for Denman) from Silver Birch, except I can’t see Himalayan Trail winning if he’s a stone wrong with many other contenders (OR 139: 10-0 bottom weight likely to be roughly 152). Obviously, the same would go for Butler’s Cabin which is why I prefer Snowy Morning, but still don’t think he’ll make up the difference on Comply or Die.
Systemsman, I agree and am slightly worried about Hear the Echo’s jumping but his 2 falls were at the end of races on soft / heavy ground and were as a 6yo.
The way I play the ante-post market is simply to get the value then lay off to take the profit, hence the value in Hear the Echo at 25s. The value as I see it now is with Comply and Mr Pointment. I think, once the weights are out, these 2 will be popular. They might not win, but profit is profit.
My shortlists, for the record are:
With Denman:
1: Hear the Echo
2: Comply or Die
3: Black Apalachi
4: Hot Weld
5: Snowy Morning
6: Halcon Genelardais
Without Denman:
1: Butler’s Cabin
2: Himalayan Trail
3: Black Apalachi
4: My Will
5: Hear the Echo
I can only make a case for these 5.
For a banker, I’d say Comply or Die to place…
Oh well, wait and see now I guess.
#93
January 5th, 2009 17:26
So is no one actually going for Denman if he is indeed to run?
#94
January 5th, 2009 18:21
Not Denman for me. I’d expect a run like Master Oats (the last GC winner to run in the GN). Everyone’ll say, if he stands up, he’ll win but there’ll be a few with too much stamina when the weight starts to tell. This is 9 1/2 furlongs further than he’s been before. He’ll try to stay out of trouble and just not get home. For me, I hope he’s entered, cross through the hot favourite, and there’ll be value to be had elsewhere. Dependant on the ground, he might nick a place at best.
#95
January 5th, 2009 18:30
Sorry, scratch My Will from my “without Denman” list (mistake), I’d consider him if Denman does run though!
#96
January 5th, 2009 18:32
notelppa do you not rate parsons legacys chances IF he runsas he is on my shortlist and would value your comments.
#97
January 5th, 2009 23:01
I backed Parson’s Legacy last year which would have been his chance from a mark of 130 and as a 10yo. He would certainly hope that Denman runs and that could make the connections’ mind up to run him this year. Certainly through the formline of one of my list (Hot Weld) he would receive a 1 stone swing in the weights for their Scottish GN meeting but the fact that only 6 firms are pricing him up and he’s 100 on betfair makes me assume he’ll be steering clear again. If he was going to run, I think it would have been last year.
#98
January 7th, 2009 14:38
I also agree with crisps analysis of Hear the Echos’ chances, 3 career falls is 2 more than any other winners profile so I will discount him.
#99
January 7th, 2009 14:55
Mr.Pointment in my opinion is like Bewleys Berry, loves Aintree, so can jump, but just can’t stay the distance.
Good point about Parsons and Denman chances Notelppa, both woulda coulda been good horses to have in the national line up tho.
#100
January 7th, 2009 15:47
Can’t argue with Crisp’s analysis. No more than 1 fall (exc National). As I see it, that leaves Comply as my nr 1 choice (Butler’s Cabin if Denman doesn’t run). I still feel I want Hear the Echo on my side though but trends are trends and I hadn’t seen that one!
#101
January 7th, 2009 16:32
Rough Quest had 5 F/UR, which, for our purposes, are one and the same thing. Lord Gylenne also had 3 F/UR.
#102
January 7th, 2009 16:54
In fact, having just double checked, Rough Quest in fact had 5 career falls before he won his National. No Unseated Rider.
#103
January 7th, 2009 17:24
Maybe the stat holds up for the last 10 years. I’d be interested to know if anyone has done the research.
#104
January 7th, 2009 17:56
Just to clarify, I havent thrown Hear The Echo out of the equation completely- a bit premature to discard second fav! I do think though that three career falls for an 8yr old is plenty and I am also questioning his overall profile as trend breakers are usually very classy and have been thrown in at the weights.I was actually thinking about to post on significant trend breakers over the last twenty years.
The only two 8yr olds to win since 1990 were Party Politics, who had won three chases at 3miles or more and was runner up in Hennessey and Welsh Nat and Bindaree who had only one 3miles chase win but had jumped around in fourth in John Hughes/Topham, had a top 5 Hennessey finish and finished third in Welsh Nat. Party Politics raced in the National only a few points more than his highest ever OR while Bindaree’s OR in ‘02 was less than his best ever. Hear The Echo’s Irish Nat win was impressive and has ran in 13 chases, is it enough? If Hear The Echo’s OR is considerably more this year than last year it would be another negative.
On the career falls front Royal Athlete had 3, Rough Quest had 5 (thought Lord Gyllene had never fallen?)
Like you Daniel I do think looking beyond 10/10 trends is prudent. Put it like this; why did Royal Athlete and Rough Quest break strongish trends? Royal Athlete was a former Gold Cup third place running off 10st 6lb! Rough Quest was a Gold Cup runner up running off 10st 7lb! perhaps both horses although prone to errors were able to run within themselves. Just a thought. If Denman doesnt run and Echo is on a ‘winnable’ weight will have to be looked at.
Back to trend breakers. Only winner with less than four prep runs and less than ten chases in last twenty years? Miinnehoma. A royal sun alliance winner, five chases wins at 3miles or further, 2nd in rehearsal chase and third in Welsh Nat at Chepstow. Won National with 10st 8lbs.
Incidentally third fav Snowy Morning has now ran in ten chases without a win- a negative for the past twenty years!
#105
January 7th, 2009 18:09
I think looking past ten years trends is essential if you want to give yourself the best chance of finding the winner. If you want to find the most LIKELY winner, sure do 10 year trends. But if, like me, you want to leave yourself a list of all the POSSIBLE winners and sort it out from there yourself, longer ones are more essential.
Apologies on Lord Gyllene, I was doing that from memory. You are right, it was Royal Athlete with 3. To answer your question re: the last 10 winners Jimmy;
2008 Comply or Die ZERO
2007 Silver Birch ONE
2006 Numbersixvalverde ZERO
2005 Hedgehunter ONE
2004 Amberleigh House ONE
2003 Montys Pass ONE
2002 Bindaree TWO
2001 Red Marauder TWO
2000 Papillon ZERO
1999 BobbyJo ONE
Re: Hear The Echo 13 chase runs, last winners have had 14,13,10,11 respectively, so 13 is by no means a bad thing. I’ve noticed a lot of big jumps races going to more unexposed horses, so it could be that we soon have a National winner with 9 or maybe 8 chase runs to his name. Before this year, the last two Welsh National winners had only had FOUR chase runs. Before them the lowest in the previous 15 years was 7. Records are there to be broken as they say, so you need to INTERPRET statistics, otherwise they are useless. Case in point being Comply or Die wearing blinkers last year. I know a few people who were put off by that.
Don’t forget, 76% of statistics are useless and that 87% of people know that
By the way, no 6,7 or 13 year old has even PLACED since 1971. Lay them all this year for a place; I will be!
#106
January 7th, 2009 18:32
No, Hear The Echo’s 13 chases isn’t a bad thing at all. Paradoxically the 8yr olds who have won the National in modern times have been very experienced in terms of chases run. Likewise older horses who are lightly raced have a good recent record.
#107
January 8th, 2009 12:59
Hi Daniel,
To clarify the stat on falls that Crisp and I are both using, it relates to all chase runs excluding those over National Fences.
One of Red Marauders 2 falls was in a previous GN, bringing him down to 1 fall. Bindaree only had 1 fall at Kempton prior to his GN win (unless you have different info to me?). This is a 10/10 stat.
I have the 20 year stats at home and will post later – I recall there are a few exceptions in the earlier years as noted above, but I favour the more recent data as the standard of the GN improves.
#108
January 8th, 2009 13:48
Yeah granted there is that, but the more selective you are the more you run the risk of getting it wrong. I would rather look at the facts as they are and decide whether Hear the Echo’s jumping is good enough, and not rule him out on the basis of a number.
No doubt Rough Quest and Royal Athelete were ruled out by many th year they won as well.
and Bindaree had not previously run in the National before his win, so he had 2 falls outside of the GN
#109
January 8th, 2009 15:08
Yep, appreciate the point. I use this stat to differentiate between runners that make my final shortlist.
Trends are there to be broken after all!
#110
January 8th, 2009 23:54
We’ve probably done the falls statistic to death over the past few days, but for the sake of completeness the 20 year record for falls (unseateds) excl runs over GN fences is as follows;
0(0), 0(0), 1(1), 1(0), NR, 0(0), 3(0), 4(0), 0(0), 1(1), 0(1), 0(0), 1(0), 0(2), 1(0), 1(0), 0(0), 0(0), 1(0), 1(0).
So in terms of purely falls, allowing 1 as a maximum, a 10/10 trend becomes an 18/20 trend. If we include URs a 9/10 becomes 15/20 unless you bump up the maximum allowed to 2 in which case its 10/10 vs 18/20 again.
I promise to leave this stat alone and move on with my life…
#111
January 9th, 2009 00:20
On a slightly more useful note; to put a historical context around the weight / OR conundrum being discussed early on in this thread.
Over the last 20 years, only one horse (Hedgehunter) has won whilst having an OR rating of less than 14lbs below top weight – Hedgehunter carried 11lbs less in 2005.
In 18 of the last 20 years the winning horse carried between 14 – 24 lbs less than the top weight.
So if Denman runs, which personally I feel won’t happen, and is given a revised mark of 176, then our winner theoretically falls into the range 152 – 162. Co-incidentally if Denman carried 11′10 off a rating of 176 anything below 152 would be out of the handicap in any case.
Nothing groundbreaking here as this is consistent with previous theories of ideal OR being 136-142 where top weight is in the mid 150’s, but framing in relationship to top weight means this can be flexed each year depending on the class of the entries.
Doesn’t help identify a winner until we know who top weight on the day will be, which from Paul Nicholls’ quotes today won’t be until after the Gold Cup.
#112
January 9th, 2009 09:19
So if the weights are published at the start of february like this Denman 11-10 halcon genelardais 10-6 5 others betweeen 10-5 and 10-1
and the rest at 10-0.
Then Denman pulls out How will the weights be raised ?
#113
January 9th, 2009 11:59
Here’s a quote that most of you will have soon on ATR, but I’ll paste it anyway:
We’ve entered Denman for the Grand National but that is as far as it has got at this stage,” Nicholls told Teletext.
“If he has a hard race in the Gold Cup like last year that would make it improbable but if something went wrong or he fell at the first, we’d kick ourselves if he wasn’t entered.
“It will be some time before a final decision is made so any speculation otherwise before then is exactly that.”
I’m sure most would be in agreement that the Gold Cup is going to be a big, tough race. So, if Nicholls is true to his word then I would doubt Denman’s participation
#114
January 9th, 2009 12:11
Interesting point to note: Hear the Echo’s current OR according to the RP is now 145 (from 149). So, even if Snowy Morning were to head the weights at his current OR of 157, Hear the Echo would get in at 10-12. This should bring him bang in to contention if Denman were to pull out. The only doubt now are the 3 falls which don’t concern me too much. Re falls stats, I can’t see why you would discount falls over the very obstacles the horses will face in the big race and even if you do, many horses fall / UR due to tiredness so perhaps you should include falls in the Becher? Either way, Hear the Echo has improved no end since his novice runs (when the falls occured), is seemingly unexposed and gave Notre Pere (OR 158) a 17L beating at level weights in the Irish National and would now be 13lb better off. Add to this the traditional Irish prep he’s had. For me, there’s now a 3 horse shortlist:
1: Hear the Echo
2: Butler’s Cabin
3: Himalayan Trail
#115
January 9th, 2009 12:43
Im completely with you Notelppa . The only bummer at the moment is that most of the value for these 3 has gone and im loath to take 14s on hear the echo 3 mths before the grand nat…However a 14/1 winner is better than a 85/1 loser and these three horses continue to crop up on most peoples lists and must be backed. I notice all 3 of these horses had hurdle preps over xmas and himlayan trail actually ran twice in the space of 48 hours.. !
#116
January 9th, 2009 12:59
Thankfully, I already have Hear the Echo at 25s. However, I’ve just taken Himalayan Trail at 33s and have Butler’s Cabin at 20s so will probably stop there. I think the 16s available on Hear the Echo is worth taking and it’s available with the big 3 so you should be able to get a decent amount on. If it’s 12/1 in 3 weeks time, you’ll be pleased with 16s. This is especially relevant as it will become more likely with time that Denman won’t run. This would have been a negative before the drop in OR but now all it would do is take out the clear favourite. I can’t see anything other than Hear the Echo or Comply or Die (housewive’s favourite) going off fav.
#117
January 9th, 2009 13:12
Permission to be smug for getting 66/1 on Himalayan Trail last year
Personally, I am doing no more backing until after Cheltenham; Yes Hear the Echo might come down a few points, but he might not run, might put in a stinker before the GN, might get injured etc etc. Far more negatives than positives I think.
PLUS that 16/1 isnt going to move far. Aside from Cloudy Lane, the rest were all 10/1 and bigger before the race last year, and Comply or Die moved from 14/1 to 7/1 fave in the space of 48 hours before the race. Thats the time when the money goes on and the prices come in.
Even if he does come down a few points, just have a few more quid!! Better than potentially throwing away your whole stake by betting now. As I say, thats my way of looking at it, but, as they say, horses for courses!
#118
January 9th, 2009 13:46
I agree. I’m sitting tight now. C.O.D. last year was still available at 25s in early March so some value will still be about. The only things that will affect prices are the weights and significant performances. Given that (as far as I know) none of the favourites have an run upcoming, no need to get involved. I just think the Hear the Echo may shorten when people realise he will have a winnable weight in the absence of Denman. Obviously, this may not happen until the weights are announced but I think his price is only going one way and if I weren’t already on, I’d be tempted.
#119
January 9th, 2009 14:47
Would anyone else agree that 10-12 is a fair bit of weight for an 8 year old to carry around the 4m4f with regards to Hear The Echo?
#120
January 9th, 2009 14:51
Going back to the reliability of the stats, by my reckoning, if you had been working on 10/10 trends you would NOT have got the following winners for the following reasons;
2000 – Papillon – Carrying 10_12.
10/10 previous highest:- 10_08 Miinnehoma-1994
2001 – Red Marauder – RPR of 145.
Previous lowest:- 150 Miinnehoma – 1994
2005 – Hedgehunter – Carrying 11_01.
Previous highest:- Papillon 10_12
AND
Last run 48 days.
Previous longest:- Red Marauder 42 days
Thats only looking at age, RPR, last run and weight. I remember Systemsman saying once he hadn’t got Silver Birch or Numbersixvalverde. Perhaps he could let us know what stats ruled them out in their winning years.
#121
January 9th, 2009 15:06
Re: Hear the Echo Jimmy
Historically, sure it might look high for an 8 yo. Corbiere in 83 was the last to carry more than 10_07 to victory as an 8 year old.
BUT he did carry 11_04 remember! and there havent exactly been many 8yo winners since then either (just the two)
Also, Royal Auclair finished 2nd as an 8yo with an incredible 11_10 on his back in 2005! Slim Pickings (8yo) was 2 lengths 3rd last year with 10_08. Whats Up Boys (8yo) was 1 3/4l runner up in 2002 with 11_06.
I think its perhaps more important to look at Hear the Echo’s form to gauge if weight is an issue for him; He won the Irish National with 10-0, but Beef or Salmon, carrying 12_00, which skewed things a bit. He was getting 4lb from Royal County Star, and 7lb from Notre Pere that day as well, if that helps. That was his last run over fences.
Perhaps more worrying for me would be Hear the Echo’s age. Yes 8yo’s CAN win, but in the last 5 runnings only 4 have placed and since 1992 when the first 3 home were all 8yo’s, only 9 have placed in 14 races. As mentioned above, only 2 8yo winners in the 25 runnings since Corbiere in 1983.
#122
January 9th, 2009 15:36
Corbiere was a different kettle of fish to Hear The Echo.
Good work there Daniel
#123
January 9th, 2009 15:39
Daniel. Just to let you know, Hear the Echo had 10-0 in the Irish National but carried 10-7 (7lb overweight) so was running at level weights with Notre Pere.
#124
January 9th, 2009 15:52
An interesting look at ‘OR at time of winning National in relation to highest OR in chases’ If anybody can have a look at it, possibly back to 1990, not sure if these figures are 100%, –
Miinnehoma -4 (four less than highest ever OR),Royal Athlete -8,
Rough Quest +1, Lord Gyllene +1, Earth Summit -10, Bobbyjo +13, Papillon -6, Red Marauder -3, Bindaree -4, Montys Pass +2,
Amberleigh House +3, Hedgehunter +3, Numbersixvalverde +3,
Silver Birch -4, Comply Or Die -9.
Don’t know if there are any trends to pull from this as such though interesting in terms of the profile of the winners. Did notice that all four of the 20/1 or or more winners in list were at least 3 less than highest ever OR- Royal, Red, Bindaree, Silver Birch. Earth and COD, who had the ‘best’ lowest OR were blinkered favourites!
#125
January 9th, 2009 16:08
Nice work Notelppa, I had missed that. 7lb overweight in such a big race!! Lucky for the jockey that he won hey!!
In that case, I would say 10_12 would not automatically rule him out.
And dont worry Jimmy, I wasn’t comparing Hear The Echo to Corbiere! That said Corbiere won his National off the back of a Welsh National win and it was only really after his GN win that he showed what a good horse he was. Irish National is a good a trial as the Welsh version I would say, so who knows, this could be the race that launches Hear The Echo.
Just a though Re: Comply Or Die. Does anybody have any info on past winners lining up in later years BUT without the customary 13lb plus hike in the weight they had to carry?
I know generally, in recent years, winners of the GN rarely win another chase, let alone another National. This would lead me to think it perhaps less to do with the rise in the weights and perhaps as much, if not more, to do with the amount of effort winning a GN takes out of a horse.
#126
January 9th, 2009 16:10
good list notelppa,what weight are you thinking himalayan trail will run off as i read somewhere that the jockey said he was very tied at utt.g/n which is 4 mile 2 fur. and he ran at 10.0 stone. on hear the echo i still fear his jumping credentials early in his career or not. butlers cabin no problems and my no1 at present and backed him at 25’s.my list for what it is worth
1 BUTLERS CABIN
2 PARSONS LEGACY
3 BLACK APALACHI
#127
January 9th, 2009 22:06
Could somebody tell me what happens to the weights if Denman(top weight) pulls out after the weights are announced .
#128
January 9th, 2009 22:10
has anyone any opininions on kilbeggan blades chances in this race. i happen to know this is the route hes headiing this year
#129
January 9th, 2009 22:46
Im not certain but in the year that Hedgehunter won the weights were put up 3lbs and that is why it won carrying 11st1lb.If Denman stays in and runs it will mean that Official Ratings and not weight will help us find the winner.Whatever the gap is between i.e denman 11st 10lbs and the next in the weights COD 11st 3lbs the weights would go up 7lbs.Hope i’ve made this clear?
#130
January 10th, 2009 09:58
In 2001, See More Business was entered and withdrawn- not sure at what stage- weights rose 9lbs, Beau went to top weight of 11st 10lbs. Interestingly, for COD backers – if Denman runs or there is a higher OR at top of weights, Papillon was actually allocated 10st 10lbs, 2lbs less than his winning weight the year before.
#131
January 10th, 2009 14:50
Mandie:
I’d say Himalayan trail should run off something like 10-6. I’m not surprised he was tired when winning by 22l at 4m 1.5f! He’ll be tired at the end of the National too!
Re Hear the Echo’s jumping. His falls came, as you say, 2 years ago. They were near the end of hard run races where he made the running. His improvement to win the Irish National was in part down to the fact that he didn’t make the running. This can also account, in part, for him making fewer mistakes.
Parsons Legacy: Seemingly unlikely to run. Connections obviously don’t fancy his chances in this race.
Black Apalachi: Good pick on trends and could be a safer option than Butler’s Cabin who fell last year and Hear the Echo whose jumping isn’t yet proven. For me though, I’ll stick to my shortlist of:
1: Hear the Echo
2: Butler’s Cabin
3: Himalayan Trail
4: Black Apalachi
The winner’s likely to come from the top 2 but should they not get round, one of the other 2 are likely to benefit.
#132
January 10th, 2009 19:55
CAN ANYBODY GIVE ME ANY THOUGHTS ON RAMBLING MINSTER. SEEMS TO FIT INTO THE TRENDS SET OUT BY SYSTEMSMAN. HAVE JUST TAKEN 300s ON BETFAIR. MONEY WASTED?
#133
January 10th, 2009 22:16
HAPPY NEW YEAR SYSTAMATIC,WACKO,BIRHY,CRISPY,NOTEPAD,GAMMO AND THE REST OF THE CREW.
DOWN TO BUSINESS,LETS NOW AGREE ON WE ALL KNOW DENMAN WILL NOT RUN.
MORE CHANCE OF ME BEING THE POPE BY NEXT SAT.MAYBE 2010,BUT THE OWNER LIKES THE COVERAGE AND LIMELIGHT.
OF THE FRONT RUNNERS MENTIONED ON HERE RECENTLY AND ON MOST PEOPLES LISTS BY THE SOUNDS OF IT
HEAR THE ECHO – WILL HAVE TOO MUCH WEIGHT AND BAD JUMPING CREDENTIALS NO MATTER HOW NOTEPAD TRIES TO CONVINCE HIMSELF EVEN MORE THAN US.
HIMALAYAN TRAIL – THE TANK WILL BE EMPTY BEFORE THE HILL IF HE COMPLETES,EASY WIN OR NOT AT UTTOXETER 2/1′2 EXTRA FURLONGS WITH MORE WEIGHT AND NOT TO MENTION THE STAMINA SAPPING FENCES.
BLACK APALACHI – LIKE BUT THINK AGAIN WILL HAVE JUST A LITTLE TOO MUCH WEIGHT AND FIND ONE OR 2 WITH ABIT MORE SPEED AT THE END,BUT MIGHT MAKE TOP SIX.
MY THOUGHTS ARE 1 BUTLERS CABIN BACKED 2 DAYS AFTER LAST YEARS
RACE.
2 HOT WELD HAD NIBBLE AT 33′S BUT WAITING
TO SEE IF RUNNING FOR SURE AND
IS FIT.
3 STAR DE MOHAISON AGAIN WAITING TO SEE IF RUNNING
RAN A CRACKER AT CHELT.OVER
3 MILE 1 1/2 WITH 11′12 ON HIS
BACK.
TRENDS ARE THE KEY TO THIS RACE WITHOUT A DOUBT BUT MAY I JUST MAKE A COUPLE OF POINTS. WACKO SAYS NO TO BUTLERS CABIN BECAUSE FRENCH BRED.IF MY WIFE HAD A PREMATURE BIRTH WITH OUR DAUGHTER WHILST HOLIDAYING IN SPAIN,YET WE RETURNED HOME AND RAISED HER IN ENGLAND DOES THAT MAKE HER SPANISH,TECHNICALLY YES BUT DO YOU GET MY POINT.
THE TREND I FIND HARD TO UNDERSTAND IS THAT IF A HORSE COMPLETED THE PREVIOUS YEARS RACE AS OPPOSED TO PULLING UP OR FALLING WHY DOES THAT MAKE IT LESS LIKELY TO WIN NEXT TIME AROUND ?.SURELY A HORSE IS MORE LIKELY TO REMEMBER A HEAVY NASTY FALL WHEN AT THE TAPE THAN ONE THAT WILL THINK BLOODY HELL NOT THAT HARD LONG RACE AGAIN.
TRENDS ARE TRENDS AND I USE THEM MYSELF BUT FEEL SOMETIMES WE SHOULD BE ABIT MORE FLEXIBLE AND LOOK AT THE BIGGER PICTURE CERTAINLY ON THE LESS RIGID TRENDS.
GOOD LUCK ALL.
#134
January 12th, 2009 14:09
Rambling Minster meets the ‘trends’ as far as im can see BUT he doesnt really look classy enough to make me want to back him.
THAT SAID, if he makes the line up (with his current mark that shouldn’t be a problem, so it depends on whether he is declared) he will not go off at 300/1 (maybe 50s??) so you could lay him off and turn it into a nice little win win bet.
#135
January 12th, 2009 15:48
good in depth discussion about Hear the Echo,
I now see why this horse could be in the reckoning, but surely the odds are pretty short.
His Irish National has to be respected with the 7lb overweight for sure, coupled with the different riding strategy seems they may have had a bit of a breakthrough!
Can we break down a few others chances in depth?
DC- I fancied a bit of Kilbeggan Blade last year watched his efforts subsequently, was unsure about him,remember seeing a poor round of jumping last year and when I saw him win recently, didn’t win with anything in hand I’d say, but that may just be his style of racing, seems to be a ‘plugger’ has low head carriage and looks quite small!?!
anyone know if he is short and who the other shorties are this year?
some of us came to the conclusion Cloudy Lane was too small for this race last year and I think it is a valid consideration
#136
January 12th, 2009 17:24
I don’t recall having seen much of Kilbeggan Blade, but looking at his form on paper as it were, I would say whilst he meets the stats, I haven’t seen anything of him yet that would impress me enough to make me think he could win a National. His RPR is only 145, he pulled up off 10_00 in the Scottish National last year having made plenty of mistakes and in his only other effort in a C1 race he pulled up as well.
I am not sure where you can find information on the size of horses, but would be delighted if somebody could enlighten me. I can look back through previous winners then.
#137
January 12th, 2009 20:36
the chances of simon were considered to be poor…if this small horse were only carrying 10 stone or 10 1 or 10 2 then surely it will get around.it had got to valentines twice in previous gn runnings on second circuit.size of fence in relation to horse was probably the negative rather than tiredness…with a stone less on his back..ie with denman running he has to be in with a good chance albeit probably 6-8 pounds out of handicap. the horse failed to finish on several occasions so i d put his rating around 150 on previous finishing form .. i d appreciate any views on this
#138
January 12th, 2009 21:51
Kilbeggan blade does not look like a horse that is geared for Aintree – but i could be wrong
.
He has already won two races this season .All of the last 10 winners were out of the first two in their first two races – presumably to protect their handicap mark and to stay fresh
#139
January 12th, 2009 22:05
yeah but his mark was low, so it needed to come up, hence the wins!
He’s entered in a C4 chase over 3 miles at Towcester at the weekend. I can’t even see him being entered if he’s running there to be honest.
#140
January 13th, 2009 00:15
Agreed, Kilbeggan is probably not THE ONE and may not even get in!
I’m advising caution at this early stage with the pennies, especially with some of the main contenders already having such short odds before declarations, is this normal? never looked quite this early before.
Also, horses I’ve heard definately won’t run have prices quoted across the board, while horses I’ve heard will run have only a couple of odds, its misleading and unfair…unless you are on betFAIR ofcourse.
#141
January 13th, 2009 10:28
Come on then KJ…
Who’s running and who’s not?
#142
January 13th, 2009 11:19
well iris de balme and notre pere aint notelppa that is for sure.nor will denman.
#143
January 13th, 2009 16:10
Some quotes regarding Hot Weld here admin:
Ferdy Murphy’s Hot Weld has been off the track since winning the 2007 Betfred Gold Cup at Sandown, but the trainer reports him to be nearing a comeback.
“The plan is very much for Hot Weld to take his chance in the Grand National. He struck into himself at Sandown and he got a bit of a bulge but there was no tendon damage,” said Murphy.
“When we got him back in for the 2007/08 season, a haematoma had hardened and was interfering with his tendon, so we decided to give him the season off. We have done plenty of work and he’s raring to go. We may run him at Doncaster at the end of the month but he will improve for that as everything is being geared towards Aintree.”
#144
January 13th, 2009 18:13
He will certainly be one I will be keeping my eye on, if his prep goes to plan that is.
To meet the stats he needs 3 runs between now and 16 days (preferably 3 weeks) before the national, which I make between 14th-18th March.
Interestingly, there are 3 weeks before the Festival and the National this year, which might make it less of a disadvantge for those running at the festival and in the GN. I seem to recall Rough Quest running just 2 weeks (16 days to be exact) after his Gold Cup run. If Denman does line up, it will be 23 days after his Gold Cup run, which would put him in line for that stat at least.
#145
January 13th, 2009 20:30
interesting, 23 hey! well that kinda lengthens the list again!.. maybe Denman (and a few other cheltenham specialists) will run.
Hedgehunter had just 15days between his 2nd place in the Gold cup and the National, carrying 11-10 and then 11-12.
If Denman stays, something will still beat him surely.
It really opens up the list of potential winners on the stats, not just to the 10-0’s but other class horses like Comply, My Will and Halcon G par example! will have much less weight?!
bet some previous winners like ole hedgehunter would fancy their chances in this senario!
#146
January 13th, 2009 22:14
notelppa,….can you have a stab at what hot welds weight should be
if he runs which it sounds like he will and he really excites me and near top of my list.cheers mate keep up your entries,very interesting.
#147
January 13th, 2009 22:21
Hi Ryme no reason,I understand what you are trying to say about french breds and maybe one day they will win the national.But there is something in the breeding which doesn’t bring enough stamina for them to have enough in the tank at the end of the race.Every year i watch the race knowing that 4 horses at most will fit the stats and with all the things that can go wrong one of them still comes thru and wins the race.When the decs come out i will give my shortlist and then i have to wait to see how many runs the horse has had and the space it has on/off before the big day.Be brave everyone and lay DENMAN as its to good a horse to risk in this race when its only 8yrs old.
#148
January 14th, 2009 10:04
Hot Weld currently has an OR of 135 I believe. This would mean he would carry, assuming Denman does not run, something like between 10_05-10_08
#149
January 14th, 2009 14:33
daniel….thanks very much for that very helpful,think i am going to have a nibble at the 33’s on offer and then see how the market trades.
#150
January 14th, 2009 15:06
Personally I would wait until he’s had at least one run, and depending on the outcome of that race, perhaps two runs.
#151
January 14th, 2009 16:43
i think trainer has stated he will only have the one run and then straight to aintree as he is at his best at time of year.
#152
January 14th, 2009 17:54
Well no horse has ever won the National having had no runs in the season (I think…certainly not for over 100 years anyway)
Does anybody know the last horse to win having had one run? The last 20, at least, have all between 3 and 8 seasonal runs.
I would definately be holding my bets on Hot Weld on that basis.
Maybe one for 2010 though.
#153
January 14th, 2009 23:03
Wonderful comments – so much to think about. Sorry I have not commented recently but have been in hospital for the last ten days.
Will try to look at some of these runners afresh and comment in a few days.
#154
January 14th, 2009 23:19
Another thing that Hot Weld may not have in its favour is the ground as its won most of its races on good to firm.Roll on the 10th Feb when the weights are declared and we can really get stuck in to finding the winner and laying the losers!!!!!!
#155
January 15th, 2009 11:41
thankyou daniel and wacky,your comments have made realise to hold off for now which i should have learnt from last year when i pilled into parsons legacy,just find the big prices tempting but i do fancy hot welds chances.at present i do not think any horse bar one really stands out for me and there is negative aspects to alot of the fancied front fancies.that one by the way (wacky wont agree)is butlers cabin.
#156
January 15th, 2009 13:10
I think its a fair shout that all the leading protagonists still have some form of niggling doubt against them . one of the lessons I learned from last year is that its dangerous to go looking for the ” perfect horse” who has a 10 out of 10 .. Last year i hummed and hawed about comply or die because he was going to be wearing blinkers. The rest is history as they say , I still backed him and done well but coulda lumped on more … i guess the moral of the story here is if u really fancy a horse and he has 80% upwards of the main trends its still worth having a go as u can end up tieing urself up in knots loking for the dream horse… hope this helps..
#157
January 15th, 2009 14:13
thanks silver birch and i totally agree.i think that was the point ryme no reason was making 10/1.
#158
January 15th, 2009 15:40
I agree with you Silver Birch.
Trends need to be backed up with logic, analysis and common sense.
example; People say greys have a bad record. Well, they do, but only 3% of runners in around the last 30 years have been greys, so given that there are upwards of 30 runners each year, you would only expect to see a grey winner every 30 years or so! (which is roughly what you do)
Another example. Only 2 horses have ever achieved the Maryland Cup, America’s leading steeplechase, Grand National double. That would put people off on the face of it.
BUT only 4 horses have ever tried and one of the other 4 came 2nd, so in fact, it would be a good thing if a horse had previously won the Maryland Cup.
Does that make sense?!
#159
January 15th, 2009 16:35
Daniel, everyone,some info on prep runs. Aldaniti had one prep run, which he won after a lay off of 16 months, Miinnehoma had two prep runs, won one of them, after a lay off of 14 months. Since 1990
2-7 prep runs have covered the winners.
#160
January 15th, 2009 16:39
Does that mean Character Building comes into your reckoning Daniel, being a grey?
He is the only one I have backed ante post so far. He seems to be doing fairly well at present.
#161
January 15th, 2009 17:55
I wouldnt exclude on the basis he is a grey. I fancied Character Building and at the start of the season, but havent been impressed this time round.
See the main page for a discussion on him in detail.
#162
January 15th, 2009 18:03
I had Miinnehoma with 3 Crips, and Little Polvier (1989 -19 runnings ago because of the Void race of ‘93) with 8, but cant double check this on RP at the moment.
I suppose it depends when you ’start’ the season as well. When did Miinnehome have his runs? I know he had 2 in March.
#163
January 15th, 2009 18:13
Miinnehoma definitely had two. Little Polveir did have 8 and I know for sure Lucius in 1978 had 9.
#164
January 16th, 2009 00:31
Hi All! Systemsman hope you’re feeling okay after your hossy stint..
Now a ‘lil question re last year… I’ve checked over last year’s posts on the blogs and nobody seriously saw KJC as a serious threat – even though he nearly spoiled the party and almost caught COD and ruined our hopes. I recall Systemsman noting that KJC’s odds were shortening – but nobody really saw the runner-up as a credible threat. Is there something massive therefore to learn in this huge oversight, stats or otherwise?
#165
January 16th, 2009 09:33
Not really. As everyone is looking for the winner, which the stats threw up. It wouldn’t have mattered if KJC was a nose behind COD, it still came second.
The winner is what we are trying to find, everything behind it doesn’t matter really.
KJC had an awful stats analysis for a National winner but fair play if they finish in a place and you can land some nice Each Way money them.
#166
January 16th, 2009 11:51
The winner takes it all, I agree Stephen.
If KJC had sneaked a place in the top 10, I would agree, but to come 2nd and still firing on all cylinders, I do think this deserves a closer look.
Does anyone think there was anything at all about KJC that was overlooked or do we think he just come super good on the day?
#167
January 16th, 2009 12:37
Showlad,
As I vaguely recall, the owner (JPMcManus??) had KJC lined up to land a massive gamble, when word leaked out the price shortened significantly and brought him to Systemsmans attention.
My interpretation is that the connections had a horse bred for stamina which they considered a good GN chance, but deliberatley gave him a non-typical preparation, racing him over too short a trip to keep the odds up and the OR down. Hence why he was missed on the stats analysis.
Not much those of us can do who study the stats to prevent this, except follow the money when those ‘in the know’ lump on.
#168
January 16th, 2009 13:05
As a last check on the eve of the GN and on the morning of the race its always important to check where the money is going (hopefully with our ante-post selections). I always keep a small wager (to recover all money invested at least) back just in case the money spots something I didnt.
I will do this exercise again this year and post the resuts for all to see.
#169
January 16th, 2009 13:47
Not to mention of course the fact he raced as though he would need to conserve every drop of energy, and accordingly meant he had to come from too far off to challenge AND when it did come to the challenge, Comply or Die had him covered quite easily.
#170
January 16th, 2009 16:23
Thats an excellent point Gammers . theres always one that flies below the radar screen each year for the reasons u mentioned above . think slim pickings and kjc are classic examples of that in recent years – so theres likely to be at least one from the emerald isle whose currently strutting his stuff at 2 or 2 1/2 miles who will surprise many and get the 4m trip without necessarily winning .. a good little exercise for ew thieves to get stuck into .
#171
January 16th, 2009 16:28
You get paid more backing the winner at 7/1 than you do backing a place at 16/1 (as KJC was I believe)
#172
January 16th, 2009 19:30
Well guys as you are talking about a horse that hasn’t been mentioned very much and has been running over shorter distances what do you think about MISTER TOP NOTCH’S chance?MTN has won only one chase at 3 miles but it was the pierse handicap chase at Leop when it beat Kings john castle carrying top weight.This season it has run mainly at 2m 5f and i think that they are trying to get its handicap mark down as it seems a little high at the moment.Any views guys?
#173
January 17th, 2009 10:49
Can’t be having Mister Top Notch, certainly not to win. Put in some decent performances this season (2 at 3m, 1 at 2m 5f and 1 Bumper at 2m 1f!). Hasn’t protected his mark, in fact has gone up 4lb this season to 158. Likely, therefore, to carry topweight if running. Surely this horse hasn’t got the quality to make top 4 under 11-10 over 4 1/2m? His longest trip in his career has been 3m 1f where he fell at Aintree and was beaten 18l by Snowy Morning at levels. Didn’t run last year at 9yo off a lower mark, why would he be risked this year?
#174
January 17th, 2009 14:34
Does anyone have any thoughts on Harmony Brig for the national as a sporting ew bet …after winning at ayr he is now being targeted at the eider…
rated 136 , 10 chase runs , 2 chase wins . has won a chase greater than 18k – ts 142 rpr 146 .. never fallen over fences … not even quoted on betfair – any thoughts anyone… would anyone like to lay me on betfair ?:-)
#175
January 17th, 2009 16:34
Anybody think Glasker Mill could be a contender now i took 150s and 160s this morning before todays race,ran a stinker in welsh nat but done well today,his or will now be about 138! -Perfect.If it goes to aintree it’ll be running off a light weight. what about it systems man,could it do it?. 60s now on Betfair!
#176
January 18th, 2009 12:55
Just to remind people that the Racing Post will be issuing a Grand National supplement soon – normally in R post on the Tuesday or ednesday in week that the weights are announced,
It gives all the statistcs of the last ten years winners together with ante post betting and topsp and rpr ratings.
i was checking last years supplemnt and noted that Comply or Die was in the top 3 of the ratings (this was prior to his Eider Chase win ).
I think the winner is normally around 40/1 or less inthe ante post market ). i checked the first 40 horses and deleted all those with an OR of 144 or more. This left about ten horses which included comply or die whi was priced at 40/1 with some bookies. oNE OF THE SHORTFALLS FOR COMPY OR DIE , AT THAT TIME WAS TAHT HE HAD NOT WON A RACE WITH MORE THAN 13 RUNNERS IN )
IT IS WORTH CHECKING THOSE LEFT AGAINST THE RPR RTAINGS PROVIDED AS C OR DIE WAS THIORD TOP IN THE RATINGS.
BEST OF LUCK ANYWAY ( PLEASE EXCUSE UPPER CASE )
#177
January 18th, 2009 18:07
As a general mark on “weights day” the the GN winner is priced at 40/1 or less by most bookmakers (check oddschecker.com)- I would allow for one 50/1 quote only as a safeguard from the many listed. Personnely I will be giving all those on 33/1 or less (with maybe at the most two 40/1 quotes) more attention.
The bookies are getting better at spotting the GN winner.
#178
January 18th, 2009 22:15
To recap my notes from Dec 18th which many may have missed:
“The trends were (to find the GN winner prior to Christmas!!):
1. OR 136 to 144 (10/11 trend)
2. RPR rating 144minimum (9/10, 10 from 10 by 15th Jan)
3. Won case value £17,000 or more (11/11)
4. 3 Chase wins (any type) or more (9/10, 10/10 by 19th Feb)
5. Age 8 to 12 (12/12)
6. Completed in 10 Chases (9/10, 10/10 by 15th Jan)
7. Won over 24f or more (11/11, 9/11 at 25f or more)
8. Won Class 1 or 2 Chase-any type (11/11)
9. TS rating minimum of 111 (12/12, TS 128 or more 7/11)
The short list was: (* donates my own current thinking)
1. Butlers Cabin ***
2. Black Apalachi
3. Himalayan Trail ***
4. Chelsea Harbour
5. Parsons Legacy
6. Kilbeggan Blade ***
7. Iris de Balme
8. Endless Power
9. Garde Champetre
10. L Ami
11. Darkness
12. Southern Vic
13. Mattock Ranger
14. King Harold
These trends now apply in full (see dates in list given).
Kilbeggan Blade won his hurdle prep race today at Towcester and is most progressive. He fits all the winners trend citeria and has a OR of 141 (spot on). I would like to see a slighly higher RPR(145)and TS(124) but they are good enough for the winner (just). I think he now has to be placed right up there on any short list of four of five.
My short list.
1. Butlers Cabin
1. Himalayan Trail
3. Kilbeggan Blade
4. Garde Champetre
Tempted to put good old Parsons Legacy in there but he has a OR of 146 just a little too high I think.
Note I am sticking to my pre Christmas assessment so far.
#179
January 18th, 2009 22:58
i like your opinion on kilbeggan systemsman my brother owns this particular horse and i have been takin any odds available since december on him on betfair and have got him from 250s down to 180 .. i believe george is going to give him one more hurdle race before the national.. but i must admit that connections were unsure about giving him a run in the national but todays performance may prove that he might deserve his place in the line up
#180
January 18th, 2009 23:00
I still don’t think Kilbeggan Blade can win the GN, for the reasons ive already outlined. Today hasnt changed my mind, but a decent chase performance between now and race day might.
#181
January 20th, 2009 17:13
Hi admin,How about looking into the Thyestes handicap chase at Gowran park on thursday? A few possible national runners like Newbay props,Chelsea harbour,Preists leap,Mattock ranger and Hold the pin to name just a few.Newbay props is the one that is standing out for me as A J Martin is a very shrewd trainer and this horse has come 4th behind COD in the Eider,3rd behind preists leap in the thyestes and 5th in the irish nat behind hear the echo.What do you think guys?
#182
January 20th, 2009 17:36
Is Himilayan Trail still entered?
Down the years I haven’t come across it in the formbook of previous winners.
#183
January 20th, 2009 17:46
wacky re newbay props,i like the sound of him as apart from as you know B.C.which we will agree to dis-agree on nothing at this stage stands out for me.i will make a point of watching the race and lets see.but i do feel it is most likely that the winner has not been discussed in depth on this thread yet.apart from the above mentioned i still fancy hot weld.
#184
January 20th, 2009 18:36
Mmmm… Newbay Prop looks an interesting one. Will need to be top 2 though to be a contender for the big one. Given that Cloudy Lane is likely to go off topweight with an OR of about 161 (just my guess), bottom weight would be 137. Do we reckon 128 would get in? If he wins the Thyestes however, sure – he wouldn’t be too far out of the handicap. The big concern for me would be that he’s a 10yo who didn’t take his chance last year or 2007. He’s not quoted by any bookmaker and no one seems to want to back him on Betfair. My guess is you won’t get a run for your money.
#185
January 20th, 2009 20:50
Just think until Comply or Die won the Eider not many had given it a second thought.You can be sure that over the next month that trainers will be trying to get there horse on the handicap mark they need.Newbay is fav for the race at gowran park so watch out!!!
#186
January 20th, 2009 21:22
Absolutely Wacky and at 5/1, you have to account for the possibility he will win it. The bigger concern for me, though would be that he’s 10 and didn’t take his chance as a 9yo. I’d love him to win, yet another boost to Hear the Echo’s Irish National form. It’s already produced a convincing winner of the Welsh National (beaten 16l at levels).
#187
January 21st, 2009 10:17
Interesting to note that Cloudy Lane has been raised to 159 following his win on Saturday. Assuming he runs off this mark as topweight, then bottom weight will be 135 and any horse with 148 or less will have less than 11-0. So I reckon you can consider any horse in the 135 – 148 bracket. Perfect for Butler’s Cabin who may well carry just 10-0, a full 17lb less then carrying when falling last year as an 8yo.
#188
January 21st, 2009 11:28
The changing of the top weight from 12_00 to 11_10 is going to make a big big diffrence.
Whereas now we say 11_01 is the highest weight, do we think that the ideal maximum weight will become 4lb less, so 10_11?
Will be interesting to see what the next few years bring. Plus it also gives those under top weight a better chance.
Personally I prefered it at 12 stone. AS you say Notelppa, letting quality horses like Butlers Cabin run with 10_00 doesnt seem right to me.
#189
January 21st, 2009 12:41
I’ll stick with the old trends until proved wrong.
Winner OR 136 to 144 (best profile).
I make Butlers Cabin (OR 135 – as listed on Racng Post web site) on 10.00 if Cloudy Lane (OR 159) is top weight on 11.10 (very likley he will be the top weight).
Bulers Cabin looks better by the day (and never ever ran in France!!).
To recap recent winners: Or / Weight / Price
2008 139 (OR) 10.09 (weight) 7/1JF (Price)
2007 138 10.06 33/1
2006 138 10.08 11/1
2005 144 11.01 7/1F
2004 139 10.10 16/1
2003 139 10.07 16/1
2002 136 10.04 20/1
2001 140 10.11 33/1
2000 139 10.12 10/1
1999 142 10.00 10/1
1998 147 10.05 7/1
Note since 1999 (10/10 trend) the winners OR has ONLY varied between 136 and 144 (amazing fact is it not?.
As Notelppa noted Butles Cabin carried 11.03 last year with OR 147. This year he is OR 135 with a winning weight on 10.00 (or therabouts). A lower weight but getting into the handicap proper is not a problem as too much weight. You could argue that BC has the perfect weight – the lowest possible weight yet in the handicap proper – not bad for class horse that has won the Irish National in 2007.
Challanging for the lead at Bechers 2nd time round last year he must have a live chance in 2009!
Butlers Cabin won the Irish National in April 2007 on OR 135 with 10.04 (29f)
In March 2007 he won the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham of 12.00 (!!) on OR 123 (33f)beating Character Building 3/4 L.
He has also prviously won at Aintree.
Someone till me why he cant win in 2009 please (I dont buy the “French” thing in this case!!).
#190
January 21st, 2009 13:16
As you say the OR of 136-144 is a 10/10 trend. Butlers Cabin OR is 135. doesn’t fit that stat.
However i have got a ante post bet on him as i can only see his price dropping from now on
#191
January 21st, 2009 13:22
You have to laugh at that!!
#192
January 21st, 2009 13:39
Without stating the obvious Systemsman, you rule Butler’s Cabin out with your statement “I’ll stick with the old trends until proved wrong.
Winner OR 136 to 144 (best profile).”.
For me, this year it has to be 135 – 148 which relates to weights 10-0 to 10-13. I’d have slight concerns if backing OR 146-148 but would have to consider. As it happens, I have a not so shortlist based on OR 135 – 148 plus the usual trends (ignoring the French trend) along with certain odds criteria and still come up with 8 against the field. Of these, I’ve discounted 2 leaving 6. For the record, these are (in OR order):
Black Apalachi OR 146
Hear the Echo OR 145
Chelsea Harbour OR 143
Hot Weld OR 141
Himalayan Trail OR 138
Butler’s Cabin OR 135
Would it be a massive surprise if a horse with 10-10 won? There are 4 listed above who’ve won with at least this weight. How can you put Butler’s Cabin forward based on the above data and discount any horse with an OR over 144? Who is the most recent winner with an OR of 135 or less? You only have to go back to 1998 to find a winner with an OR >144. Also, the conditions of the race have changed to improve the chances of higher rated horses.
#193
January 21st, 2009 14:13
If you were to stick purely to the trends that systemsman stated on 18/12 and 18/01 then i would make it that only 3 horses fit the perfect profile to win.
These being Kilbeggan Blade, Garde Champetre & Southern Vic.
#194
January 21st, 2009 14:49
Fair point Brian:
Kilbegan blade: Looking back over his form in C1 races, I can’t see him challenging. I also don’t like the fact that he’s not quoted by the major bookies and only £550 to date traded on Betfair.
Garde Champetre: I’ll keep my eyes on but would expect to miss the National. More likely to run at Cheltenham. His chance would have been last year. If I hear he’s likely to run, I’ll add him.
Southern Vic: Again, not quoted by bookies and little action on Betfair. Since Dec 06, he’s had 3 chases – UR,F,5(of6).
Of these, Garde Champetre is the only one I could consider but I’d have to be more confident of his participation.
#195
January 21st, 2009 14:58
Wasn’t putting any of them forward to win. I was just stating that these are the only ones with the perfect profile.
In my opinion i dont like trends that are 10/10 as they just scream out to me that they will be broken. Out of the three i have to agree that Garde Champetre is the only one that catches my eye but agree it will more than likely run at cheltenham.
Just wondering if there is enough time between the festival and the national if he would have a chance to do both.
I wont be really looking into the runners in any more depth now until after the weights have been announced as i just cant see any value in placing ante post bets on now.
#196
January 21st, 2009 15:09
I think this will be my last comment on the ‘trends’, at least until nearer the race.
Last year I didnt know about the trends, but then I read Hedgehunter was is the only horse in the last 24 years to carry more than 11 stone to victory, so I focused below 11_01.
Then I found out about RPR of at least 145, so discounted those below 145.
Then the days since last run ruled out another horse for me, cant remember which, and then I looked and realised no 7 year old had won for however long as the same with 13 year olds.
Just keeping it simple and doing those 4 stats left me with 12 horses. 6 of them were obvious no hopers, and of the 6 that were left I didnt fancy backing Cloudy Lane at 5/1 and I didnt want to back Snowy Morning with his questionable jumping.
This left me with 4 horses; Comply or Die, McKelvey, Slim Pickings and Bewleys Berry, backed them all ew, except for COD luckily, and got paid on 3 of them, including the winner. I much prefer thinking about it for myself!
I wont be put off by 8 chase runs, or being 8 years old, or having run one day too soon or anything like that. Trends are there to be broken, and if you follow them too rigidly, you end up not getting the winner.
I have backed 3 national winners since 2002; Bindaree, Hedgehunter and COD. Following the stats wouldn’t have got you the first two of those, and you probably wouldnt have got Silver Birch or Numbersixvalverde either. So, they are not bomb proof.
#197
January 21st, 2009 15:10
Absolutely, applying trends without common sense leads to trouble. I’d pick Hear the Echo, Butler’s Cabin and Himalayan Trail over the above 3 any day! Agreed, there’ll be little change between now and the weights announcement.
#198
January 21st, 2009 15:12
The lowest rated horse in last year’s National was 137, top was 156. Think top weight will be something rated higher than Cloudy Lane, lowest OR could 140′ish? Bobbyjo was a stone out of the handicap so I make his official OR at the time 128.
Apart from the French aspect- more debate nearer the time perhaps!- Butlers Irish National win is important -as is Hear The Echo’s- as only four winners in the last twenty two nationals (Seagram, Royal Athlete and Lord Gyllene) had not had a top 5 hennessey place, a top 3 Welsh, Scots, Irish National finish or a top 2 place in a race over National fences. Those three mentioned all won at least three chases over 3 miles and at least one at 28f or further. The last National winner not to fit these criteria was Lucius in 78. I think he won five chases all at or around 3 miles.
Personally, at the moment, I’m staying clear of French Breds and think that anything rated up to 149, at least, is in the mix. Would be an easier race to work out if Denman runs!
Not a very shortlist;
Parsons Legacy, Cornish Sett, Hear The Echo, Black Apalachi
Himlayan Trail, Character Building, Hot Weld,Royal County Star,
Rambling Minster,Kilbeggan Blade
#199
January 21st, 2009 15:16
Sorry, in last post that should be ‘three winners in last twenty two Nationals’
#200
January 21st, 2009 15:17
Oh, and before I forget, people who say Cornish Sett cant win because unplaced horses dont come back to win the National, I suggest you look a little closer at the profiles of Red Maurader and Amberleigh House.
#201
January 21st, 2009 15:24
Agree with Notelppa that common sense must prevail along with certain trends.
Crisp without sounding funny towards your methods as im sure they have pocketed you some good fortune in the past but do you not look at your list of trends and think these could be manipulted into anything to cover the winner.
For Eg. you say a top 5 hennessey, top 3 welsh, scots, irish national finish or a top 2 place over national fences. Say this year it was a 4th place finisher from a welsh national. All that would happen is that your trends next year would be top 5 hennessey, top 4 welsh, scots, irish national finish.
Given time i could find a list of trends that cover every single winner of the Grand National and adjust it slightly whenever it doesnt hold up.
#202
January 21st, 2009 15:40
Brian, you have hit the nail of the head when it comes to trends/stats. They can always be manipulated.
I have already pointed out somewhere that by following 10/10 trends AS THEY WERE AT THE TIME, would have meant you did not get quite a few of the last 10 runners. It is important to look at the stats as they were, and not just as they are, if that makes sense!
And ive just realised I said that would be my last post previously, but I couldnt help myself!
#203
January 21st, 2009 15:47
Fair comment, Brian. But tweaking trends is exactly the way to do it. Most of this research has been done since last year’s race and pre 1970’s not much of it stands up. But apart from horses running two or three times less on average than they did thirty years ago – eg many national winners prior to 1990 had 8 preps – these profiles do fit over a considerable amount of time because of things like trainers aiming horses at particular races and distances. Might just warn us about a Red Marauder or a Last Suspect(who won at least three chases at 3 miles, one of those at 30f, and finished third twice in the Irish Grand National!)
#204
January 21st, 2009 16:23
Newbay prop is THE horse on my
‘intersting low weighted n irish shortlist!’
not that I’ve gone thro everything with a fine tooth comb! – didn’t know he was running thurs, an intersting line up of pretenders, will try and watch so thanks for that. Agree he has to do very well to get in, but I think he has a good chance off a low weight, being 10 is still ideal but why didn’t they put him in last year? his form was proven, although looking at things like his 4th behind C or D for example he was way back and beaten by Elvis!!!
Still think, IF Comply can get his interest back and gets a fair weight he’s got the beating of the lot.
#205
January 21st, 2009 17:21
Big ‘IF’ though….I wouldnt want to back him without a decent outing between now and Aintree. Would be punting in the dark I think.
#206
January 21st, 2009 17:21
Getting interesting!
Some really good points on the interpretation of stats / trends. One example that occurs to me is – look at Hedgehunter. When he fell in the National, he was leading but got tired and fell at the last. If he’d scraped over that final fence and finished at a walk, would we still be saying horses can’t finish the race then go on to win it in the future? The problem with placed horses is they’re penalised for what could be a mediocre effort. This is why I’m keeping Chelsea Harbour on my list. This is only because he was 8 and is open to improvement (like Hedgehunter). Though he’s bottom of my list as he’s failed to complete in 2 of his last 3 races.
#207
January 21st, 2009 18:27
Let’s get real about Butlers Cabin (I’am not saying he is the only one who can win but must be in any short list of five/six and 20/1 wont last much longer)).
Remember the debate about blinkers last year? Ofcourse there is often some slight change in the trends (you can win the GN with blinkers! There wre so many who said this would not happen last year).
So Butlers Cabin on OR 135 and not 136 is not a problem if he gets into the handicap proper on 10.00 or so (Bindaree won well ouside the handicap). If he won it just means that the new trend would be that the best OR profile is 135 (not 136) to 144 best (not a huge change is it?)and 135 to 147 to cover all the last eleven winners.
The key point is that Butlers Cabin will have about 17lbs or so less than when he was challenging for the lead last year (see the video on YouTube) and clearly has the GN as his one and only target this year – my only concern is that will he get in the last 40 to run on OR 135?
I concur with Notelppa (also a very good short list)when he stated
“For me, this year it has to be 135 – 148 which relates to weights 10-0 to 10-13. I’d have slight concerns if backing OR 146-148 but would have to consider”.
I will try to reassess the short list over the next week now I am back on my feet.
Be prepared for a lot of rubbish being printed in the Racing Post on “weights day” when they will talk up runners with over OR 148 based on Denman running (he wont!!!).
#208
January 21st, 2009 19:02
interesting read about butlers cabin here,
seems ridiculus that a horse like this could end up carrying near 10.0, having won carrying 12.0 for 33f. I can’t say however I’ve really noticed him which is a worry recently, form is not good hence the drop with his rating.
Last year in the national he was going well considering only 7 and carrying 11.03.
But then I realised his real handicap in this race is that AP rides him!!!
#209
January 21st, 2009 19:20
Just realised, with the chance of butlers not getting in on 135
he probably won’t get AP treatment! which helps.
May consider this horse yet.
will Tony ever win this race?..
#210
January 21st, 2009 22:48
Think that things will become clearer when the weights come out on the 10th feb.But one thing is for sure i won’t be backing a french bred until they break the stat!!!Newbay prop won’t be 130 on betfair 2mrw night of that im sure!!Keep up the great banter guys & girls.
#211
January 22nd, 2009 10:06
Re 20s not lasting much longer on Butlers Cabin, you said that when he was 16s!
#212
January 22nd, 2009 11:09
Wasn’t been sarcastic towards you crisp and i think you do have some valid points in your outlook on the race. Its just i remember i was nearly put off silver birch because someone had stated horses that run at cheltenham dont win the national. After the national they then turned round and said Ah yes but there is a difference in running in the gold cup and running in the Cross country which was a fair point to make but it was made after the national therefore another trend was manipulated because before silver birch people werent saying horses that run in the gold cup (or other equally hard contested race at the festival) dont win the national!!!
I never really buy into the OR stat myself. i prefer to go by the weights (some may argue its the same thing really but i’ll agree to disagree with them).
The one stat i strictly stick to is I wont back anything that has over 11:03
#213
January 22nd, 2009 11:27
One horse i bet a while back Kings Advocate i had discounted because of his non-appearance and price drifting heavily on betfair,he’s entered at Leopardtown on sunday,his OR is 126,2 chase wins before weights day could see him sneak in on 138.
He was 9/2 fav for irish national 2 years ago so must have some ability,bit of a long shot but they might be aiming him for this.
#214
January 22nd, 2009 11:40
I think Bindaree had run at Cheltenham as well Brian.
Only those 2 in the last decade though (I think that’s right) so it is definately a negative.
If you place in a race at the festival it is even harder to win. Rough Quest was the first horse to do so in how many years was it??
#215
January 22nd, 2009 11:59
Good point Brian. I think the OR/ weight thing was talked about at length last time- ask systems and myself!! If you stick to a 10st- 11st 5lbs,nothing but Red Rum has won with this weight since the fifties, you cover all the probables however the race is framed. Nothing has won carrying 12lbs more than bottom weight since ‘84 which is why Hedgehunter managed to win carriyng 11st 1lb, he was only carrying 10lbs more than bottom weight.
That is another key thing. You need to know why have the winners over the last 10years been rated 136-144 – it’s because the top OR has been less than 160. During the 90’s the top OR was higher hence the winners OR was higher because horses on an OR of say 136 could have been carrying 6-14lbs more than their OR. Systems is correct to say that when the OR is 150 something then a horse rated between mid 130’s and 140’s will probably win because those horses will carry between 10-11st.
All trends,profiles do need backing up and I think the guys stressed last year that a good run/ blow out at Cheltenham isn’t a bad thing but a hard fought win probably is given that only Seagram had managed this in a long time. Even Foinavon had a top 7 Gold Cup finish. Ok, he was the last to finish!!!! but even Miinnehoma only managed seventh in the Gold Cup the year he won.
Talking of Silver Birch it’s amazing how many boxes he ticked on the profile front- four chase wins over 3 miles including won at 30f, top3 Welsh National finish and a top 2 finish over National fences.
#216
January 22nd, 2009 12:15
Re Silver Birch, why was he missed out? I remember Systemsman saying he didnt get him. I am interested to know why.
#217
January 22nd, 2009 12:30
Ah yes but Silver Birch would of been overlooked because he was 100/1 at this stage of the year when he won.
Which is my point exactly you cant stick to all the trends/stats as it will be very rare you get the winner if your looking for the perfect profile.
The winner will fit most stats each year and the ones it doesn’t match that year get tweaked so it does fit them.
Take for example 1996 prior to that race over a ten year period no 10 year old had won therefore a 10/10 stat. Now look at how many have won it since then. Same with no favourite had won it in the 10 year before 1996 another 10/10 stat.
So rough quest would of been ruled out on both of them 10/10 stats / trends.
Now weve got a 9/10 trend that 8 year olds dont win, would you really rule out all 8 year olds because of this trend??????
Crisp Your view on 12lbs greater than bottom weight is an interesting one and one that i will look into a bit more.
Wacky are the weights revealed on the 10th Feb. i thought it was more nearer the end of Feb?
#218
January 22nd, 2009 12:53
Daniel said “Re 20s not lasting much longer on Butlers Cabin, you said that when he was 16s!”
All due to the Denman factor which blew the market apart.
Butlers Cabin is quoted as 16/1 by 6/15 bookies on Oddschecker.com. and 37/2 by betfair (I make that 18.5/1). Now when he gets down to <12 or less as the 2nd Fav or even Joint Fav on the day I bet you wished you had a safety bet on him at 20/1 or even 16/1! There were those last year who stated that the value had gone out of Comply or Die when he was 20/1 and then 16/1! Butlers Cabin will go off no better than 12/1 on the day and probably 8/1 – 10/1.
Anyone have any more ideas on Hear The Echo who now seems to fit the trends (best price only 16/1 I’am afraid). Only aged 8 (not agood record) but they still win.
#219
January 22nd, 2009 13:11
Fair point systesman on the Denman factor.
Personally, I would rather put more on at 12s or whatever the price may be nearer the time, than bet now at 20s and risk losing my stake. In light of the trainer’s comments the other day, I cant see the 20s disappearing just yet.
Re:age. I dont care if another 8 year old or 12 year old doesnt win for the next 6-7 years or so. I wont be ruling them out because they do win. When you have horses running aged 7-13, ruling out one of them on a 10/10 stat is foolish, because their are 7 different ages that can win, so you will often get a 10/10 stat that excludes a certain age! Thats why I only rule out 7 and 13yo’s when it comes to age, because they have not even BEEN PLACED since 1968 & 1970 respectively. Now that is a stat!
#220
January 22nd, 2009 13:41
Excellent point on the age thing there Daniel and i hope everyone takes heed of this advice.
I also think this point can be applied to other so called ‘Find the Winner trends’ and that is where common sense should prevail over trends (especially if the trends are only covering the last 10 or so years)
#221
January 22nd, 2009 16:19
Any interest in Priests Leap after this afternoons result? 24f in bottomless ground suggests a certain amount of stamina, and OR will go up a few lbs from 135.
Not had a proper look, but meets the basic age / weight / 24f win criteria.
#222
January 22nd, 2009 16:20
Take it that result now stops everyone from talking about newbay prop from winning the national!!!!!
#223
January 22nd, 2009 16:29
I think that could be the end of the road for Himalayan Trail re Grand National aspirations . I dont believe a pulled up in what should one of his final prep runs is good enough . He will also im sure be dropped a few pounds from his current OR of 138 and may find himself in the same dangerous territory now as Butlers cabin … anybody any thoughts ? – im afraid im removing him from my no 1 slot after today … revised fancies
1. Black Appalachi
2. Hear the Echo
3. State of Play
4. Butlers Cabin
5. Snowy Morning
6. Joe Lively
#224
January 22nd, 2009 16:39
Doesn’t look good does it for Himalayan trail but theres still a possible for 1 more run before the weights are announced (Which wacky was correct it is 10 Feb).
Think the horse that came out of that the best was Chelsea Harbour.
#225
January 22nd, 2009 16:58
I didnt see the race, but why was a 5th for Newbay Prop so bad over a 3m trip on ground that may not have favoured?
#226
January 22nd, 2009 17:29
Could be right SB about ‘Trail. Interestingly he seemed to be one we all agreed on. Not all over yet I suppose, a few winners have had a non finish among preps but he’s now had two- as did Rough Quest- and he obviously doesn’t like heavy going. Perhaps Mangan’s desire to keep down OR-running the horse on ground he doesnt like- will backfire and he’ll miss the cut. I agree with you Dan about ‘Prop. Could be the big one for the Irish. Preists Leap seems similar to Montys Pass, hasnt ran over a longer distance though MP did have a successful spin around Aintree.
#227
January 22nd, 2009 17:43
I thought Newbay Prop was running into it at the end. I think he ran an ok race. It’s hard to see him in the National though on that rating. But if he does turn up he could have a squeek at a place.
#228
January 22nd, 2009 18:04
Re Priests Leap’s chances, he went up 11lb for his victory last year, so if he went up another 11lb for this one (i know that isnt necessarily the case, but as a ballpark figure) his OR would be 146, so approximately 10_11.
#229
January 22nd, 2009 18:28
I really would apprreciate more views on Hear the Echo as i am warming to him now (am working on a complete re review of the leading runners which I will post some days hence). SILVER BIRCH i see you have him as No 2 – why?
Daniel we are argreed the price of Butlers Cabin will probably remain at or around 16/1 – 20/1 untill 48 hours after the weights are published on Feb 10th – then see some!(you ask why I never spotted Silver Birch – the answer was that I had not found this site and was using a much cruder set of “stats” rather than the excellent trends and info on this site – the price was also a major issue. I am also now early retired and have much more time to play and have fun with trends).
I do belive that between us all we can get the winner down to a short list of five and obviusly this is easier after the weights are published – looking at the ante-post is for fun and the bigger prices (what some of us want). We will all still have to take a gamble on weather Denman runs or not as he is bound to be listed in the weights distorting the whole picture with a lots of rubbish no doubt being written on weights day about high OR horses winning the GN. All my own aasessments will be made on Denman not running (I will however hold back a last minute wager till after the Gold Cup to cover anythinhg I have left out including Denman running, if he falls early in the Gold Cup).
Re: today’s race in Ireland – did this really show anything on Heavy ground (unless ofcourse its Heavy for the GN?).
#230
January 22nd, 2009 20:42
Gowran Park race- I think that Newbay Prop ran into it at the end for sure too, which is a big positive for the real thing, a mile further… e/w prospect IF gets in.
Himalyan Trail faded back tamely after a good start, I think it may have confirmed my thoughts that he is rather untested in goodish company and with any weight.
Chelsea H looks the obvious one to take from this, prominent throughout, better form argueably than last year when he finished 9th.
But with this recent results reading,. win, dangerous crazy jumping unseated, win, fall, 2nd. I can’t back a horse whose jumping is so unbelievably variable.
#231
January 22nd, 2009 20:42
Hi Systems man – I think its fair to say everybodys had at least half an eye on Hear the Echo since the word go. I just fancy him because hes an irish nat winner , who if denman runs , could be running with only ten stone on his back and although there has been much debate about his two jumping falls he just cannot safely be ruled out.. hes probably not one of the “sexiest horses” in the line up and has been flying under the radar screen in terms
of how much he has been talked up but bad horses dont win irish nationals and as more and more potential horses fall by the wayside he seems to be coming up to near the top on most peoples short list . i will admit that if denman doesnt run he has a harder task on his hands because i think hell end up with about 11 stone which will be a lot more difficult to contend with . some people are probably asking why eleven stone , i know cloudy lane will prob have an OR of aprox 160 after haydock last week but surely phil smith will know that hes a potential candidate for carrying top weight on the day and will maybe lop a few pounds off and give him 155 . therefore assuming hte runs off 145 he will be carrying 11-0.
I just cant help feeling theres going to be something a bit different about this years nat winner as i dont get the same warm feeling as most years that there is any one horse with outstanding credentials .. its a real hard slog this year but loadsa fun and fair enjoying the banter and evbodys input on the site ….:-)
#232
January 22nd, 2009 21:13
yes Birchy, I agree this year does feel different,
bit of a topsy turvy feeling, shame theres not a horse called credit crunch!
#233
January 22nd, 2009 21:40
Come on guys all good things come to those that wait.I know we all would love to find the winner now and have a small stake for a massive return,but we have to live in the real world.Just relax and buy the racing post on the 11th feb and things will become much clearer as using the trends is bound to knock alot of horses.By applying AGE,OFFICIAL RATINGS,NUMBER OF RUNS,CHASE WIN £17,000 and NO FRENCH BRED you will have a very short list.KEEP THE FAITH….
#234
January 23rd, 2009 00:11
So what did you make of your protege Newbay Prop today Wacky? Dissapointed or a promising warm up?
#235
January 23rd, 2009 10:08
Comments from Priests Leap’s trainer after yesterdays run…
“He will go for the Grand National, providing there’s cut in the ground and he will probably have another run before that.”
Why haven’t more high street firms quoted a price about him for the Natioanl?
#236
January 23rd, 2009 10:50
I dont think Butlers Cabin’s price will change after weights day; we all know what sort of weight he is going to be on already. I think a decent prep run and some more positive comments from his trainer will definately bring the price down. Personally, I shall wait a bit, although I do agree he looks the most likely winner at this stage.
#237
January 23rd, 2009 11:12
Systems- I think Hear The Echo chances are good if, something with an OR say of 165 runs or perhaps as happened last year a lot of entries meant bottom weight was 10-7 and he wasn’t giving much weight away to too many. So even off something like 11st you wouldn’t rule him out purely on weight. A low racing weight, for me, offsets his jumping record (see Royal Athlete and Rough Quest)and puts him close to the top of the list and maybe in that often heard category, ‘if he gets round he’ll win!!’.
A few stats about Irish Nat winners. Record of Irish Nat winners who had raced in Nat as 8yr olds since 1946.
Revelry ‘48,11-6, fin 12th. Dominicks Bar ‘52,10-13,fell.
Perris Valley ‘89, 10-0, fell. Davids Lad ‘02, 11-1, fell.
Butlers Cabin ‘08, 11-3, fell.
Irish Nat winners who have won or placed in Nat. during same time;
Prince Regent 3rd in’46, 11.12-5, 4th in ‘47, 12.12-7,
Rhyme N Reason won in ‘88,9.11-0. Ebony Jane 4th in ‘94, 9.10-1.
Bobbyjo won in ‘99, 9.10-0. Papillon won in ‘00, 9.10-12.
Numbersixvalverde won in ‘06, 10.10-8.
Those stats dont look good for HTE but eleven Irish trained horses have won during the same time and three of the were 8yr olds;
Caughoo, ‘47, 10-0, Early Mist ‘53, 11-2, Mr What ‘58, 10-6
Incidentally twelve 8yr olds have won since 1946.
#238
January 23rd, 2009 11:23
Daniel you asked why i think Newbay props run yesterday should mean he wont win.
Isn’t his OR now 128 which by reckoning would mean he wont get in.
However i could be wrong about his OR so will double check it before totally righting his chances off.
#239
January 23rd, 2009 11:31
Yep, you are right Brian. Unless of course they can get him to run a blinder in the next 2 weeks
#240
January 23rd, 2009 14:15
correct daniel BUTLERS CABIN is the one. wacky french bred my arse.
#241
January 23rd, 2009 14:23
I can see this one running and running!!
#242
January 23rd, 2009 17:46
Thanks “ryme no reason” for the support and welcome to the Bulers Cabin fan club (or at least for any sensible short list)!
Yep its going to run all the way past the winning post Daniel!!!
#243
January 23rd, 2009 17:54
All i can say guys is good luck if you back Butlers Cabin.I will live or die by the stats and hope that BC is a short price on the day so i can lay it til the cows come home. Hi Showlad,I feel that Newbay Prop ran a good race and a step up in distance will suit.But i think it will have to win a race to get a rating high enough to win the big race.Jury out and just waiting for weights now.
#244
January 23rd, 2009 18:06
Wacky, im not here to start an argument.
BUT there is an old addage in statistics. It goes;
Correlation does not equale causation.
Have a think about it!
The french bred stat comes from horses who have been trained and raced in their early days in France. On that basis Butlers Cabin is not really French.
And you say you live and die by the stats. WOuld it not be more sensible to be proactive and adjust them if you think they need adjusting than to be re-active and only adjust them afterwards?? Without doing this, how many of the past 10 winners would actually have been ‘the one’ according to the stats.
Since I first bet on the national (2002) I have 3 out of 7, and I didnt have a bet in 03, so 3 out of 6 really. That was without the stats (although I am a fan of them) I doubt the stats can over much better than that return. In fact I KNOW they can’t.
Remember; Correlation does not equal Causation.
#245
January 23rd, 2009 18:07
not sure why I spelt reactive ‘re-active’! sorry
#246
January 23rd, 2009 18:44
I understand what you are all trying to say but until a French bred horse wins the national i will put a line thru them.Just because it hasn’t run in france has no revelents on it having a better chance.I’ve had the last 4 winners since learning the stats and its not a case of digging my heels in,im just confident that better horses will be on my short list.Can we please agree to disagree as im sure like you im trying to put a different spin on the race.Good luck with BC.
#247
January 23rd, 2009 19:32
Nothing like a bit of lively debate! At the moment stats on french bred isn’t good, good point made about being proactive. When compiling any shortlist always good to put in at least one ‘against the grain’ to cover any trends/profile changes. Not against french breds winning, thugh the fact it hasn’t happened is a major negative. Nothing to do with reacing in France. The French race over shorter distances so breed horses accordingly, speed more than stamina. But as I said in an earlier post not many fancied French breds have come to Aintree without good trends( prep runs,form etc)
I think this year it could be different if Denman runs because if he does then it would seem, from what has been said, that maybe Exotic, Halcon, Star de Mohaison, Notre Pere, Miko, My Will,Mon Mome, Dear Villez, Nozic, Madison du Berlais, Garde Champetre – all highly rated french breds – would run as they would all be on a, roll up,roll up once in a lifetime racing weight in the National. If this were to happen you would have to go along with the old theory that if you throw enough balls you’ll bag a coconut.
One gripe I’ve got about Butlers is his figures for this season. I’m sure it was mentioned last time that the winner always had at least a top four placing over fences in National winning season- in fact only Papillon, Bindaree and No.6 didn’t manage a top 2 placing over fences in the last thirty odd years. Until it shows otherwise BC resembles a horse a bit on the slide. But then again ……
#248
January 23rd, 2009 20:55
I dont think you can discount BC’s stamina as he has won over the 33F with what is probably going to be either a higher or same weight as he will be allocated in the GN.
What i was wondering is has there ever been a french ‘Bred’ horse that has won the Irish / Scottish / Welsh national that has went on to contest the Grand National on a similar weights level before?
If not then the BC could be the one that goes against the grain.
#249
January 23rd, 2009 21:08
Crisp. I wouldn’t pay too much attention to placing in a prep race in the season, at least not yet. You mention 3 horses in 30 odd years who haven’t placed top 2 in their GN season. That’s also 3 in 9 years. You have to admit, this is becoming the traditional preparation. Silver Birch didn’t place in a chase until February. Papillon’s only top4 chase was 4th in a 6 runner race over 2 miles in which one fell and one was tailed off. I’d kick myself if I overlooked a winner based on such an uninformative trend. I’m with Daniel on trends I’m afraid. I would say this is the most likely of all trends to be broken. Also, it’s early days and a good run from Butler’s Cabin or Hear the Echo in a chase in Feb / March would really cement them as the 2 to be on.
#250
January 23rd, 2009 21:10
Also another query i have got is where is the french part for butlers cabin???
I know that might sound like a stupid question but when i’ve looked at its pedigree i cant find any french horses in its blood line?
Apologies in advance if its just me
#251
January 23rd, 2009 21:12
I believe BC was bred IN France from a mainly American pedigree.
#252
January 23rd, 2009 21:21
so then the stamina issues which are connected to the french bred horses dont win nationals must be ignored then as its bloodline comes from USA and not France.
Thats unless USA bred horses dont have stamina but then that will be another trend to look at.
My opinion has to be i cant discount BC on the sole reason it has the letters FR next to its name.
#253
January 23rd, 2009 21:44
Notelppa- If Butlers has a good run in a chase and finishes in top 4, wont that be upholding that statistic that you say will be broken? So you think this year’s National winner wont have placed in a chase this season? I did say, ‘Until it shows otherwise BC resembles a horse a bit on the slide’. Not for me at the moment, three runs, three duck eggs. As for being an unformative trend I think thirty odd years is quite strong and how is it unimformative to place in a race showing how good/ well a horse is? By the way although Bindaree didn’t have a top 2 placing he had a top 5 Hennessey finish and a top 3 welsh national finish. I’d say that was quite informative.
#254
January 23rd, 2009 22:06
13 out of the last 14 winners had actually had a top4 finish by this time. Hedgehunter and Royal Athlete had theirs in hurdle races but that is all that they had contested up until this time. Silver Birch had finished 4th in his only race thus far but I’m not sure what it was,hurdles or fences. Papillon didn’t have a top 4 finish at this time.
#255
January 23rd, 2009 22:10
Sorry Crisp, I may have confused 2 seperate points, those being 1: Butler’s Cabin could easily meet the trend before the off and 2: I don’t think it would be a shock any more if this trend didn’t hold up due to the change in traditional preparation. It would seem that horses aimed at the National are now more likely to be protected and, therefore, have fewer runs in chases and are also likely to be entered in races not suited to them in order to protect their handicap, meaning that the “placed top 4″ trend is less likely to be kept. This is shown by the fact that the “top 2 in a chase” trend has been broken 3 times in the last 9 years. If looking at trends in 2000, you would have said, no winner in 20 odd years has failed to get a top 2 finish. The change in preparation (started by Papillon) has now meant that this has been broken in one third of Nationals since.
I can understand the thinking behind your “horse on the slide” comment although the fact that 2 of his 3 races were over hurdles makes me think he’s being genuinely aimed at the National because the connections feel he has a chance. Surely his run at Wincanton has to be too bad to be true? Also, he’d been disappointing in his run up to last year’s race but his performance then is the reason many people fancy him.
#256
January 23rd, 2009 23:06
I believe BC was bred IN France from a mainly American pedigree.
——————————————————————————–
Brian Says:
January 23rd, 2009 at 9:21 pm
so then the stamina issues which are connected to the french bred horses dont win nationals must be ignored then as its bloodline comes from USA and not France.
Thats unless USA bred horses dont have stamina but then that will be another trend to look at.
My opinion has to be i cant discount BC on the sole reason it has the letters FR next to its name.
Cmon Wacky, that has to make you see sense, surely!?! His mum and dad got it on in France….big deal!! Does that make Brooklyn Beckham a New York’er??!!
#257
January 24th, 2009 10:06
To be fair to Wacky, he has made the point that the French like to breed horses for their own races which tend to be shorter and looking at BC’s pedigree, it doesn’t shout Grand National. This is the point that would concern me more than the (FR) business. Still, I’ll base my judgement on what I’ve seen and although I reckon he’ll get the distance, I can’t be 100% confident. Doesn’t stop me putting him nr 2 on my list though! His 2 victories in the spring of 07 and judging by how well he was going when falling last year make me think he’ll get the distance as well as any and better than most.
#258
January 24th, 2009 12:47
For some strange reason black apalachi has drifted out to nearly 70s on betfair this morning . very strange … hes a horse that needs to be kept on the right side of … theres usually no smoke without fire however so i wonder if there is a injury scare there – if the horse is fine seems a ridiculous price…..
#259
January 24th, 2009 13:56
Its great that we all have different views and i learnt from last year that if you try to hard to get people to side with you they get upset.I find it very hard to put my views across and don’t want to upset anyone this year.When the weights come out i will post my shortlist and then wait to see what these horses do in there preps races before the big day.Roll on the 11th feb when we can get stuck in!!
#260
January 24th, 2009 14:13
Oh dear not good news about black apalachci my only bet so far, hope its only a scare,
as pre weights! I still fancy his chances.
Think this french bred stat is as with all stats is valid until its not, as wacky said. its true they don’t breed them for stamina and is always a consideration in the back of my mind. The fact that BC has american parents bred in france doesn’t fill me with a sense of relief, what are they bred for? I’d imagine it will just run! ha, ha
#261
January 24th, 2009 15:02
I’m trying to keep the faith and see through the mud this year, having never looked at this race sooo early, with the Denman senario and cheltenham being a long 23 days before its hard work at this stage.
Heres a question, does anyone know the history of the amount weights have gone up between announcement and race in relation to the winner and bottom weight, or something like that, I’m sure theres a mega stat in there somewhere, no?
Well, I’m gonna leave that mathematical ultimate formula/ polyhedron making to you guys and concentrate on watching the horse itself in the next month! got Hal and Star de M to watch today, like both but weights likely to be high. Hal is a good weight carrier tho!
I have to remember that I have to zone out to zone in, having got so many GN winners, I’ll just try and get those ‘feelings’ going!
#262
January 24th, 2009 15:09
oh and Hot Welds return at doncaster today
#263
January 24th, 2009 16:26
After Himalayan Trails poor run on Tue I put Joe Lively in my top 6 for Aintree. If Denman turns up I think this fella deserves the maximum of respect . His jumping is outstanding and he beat some decent horses today . Granted , everything was in this horses favour today in terms of the track and the ground but i reckon he could be put up to nearer 160 after that so i bet hell still have less than eleven stone if Denman turns up. If denman does not turn up then i fear he will have far too much weight . one to keep a serious eye on
#264
January 24th, 2009 17:18
To be French or not to be french, that is the question ….
Looked up Butlers ancestry.
Poliglote, sire – Strictly Cool, dam
I
Saddlers Wells,sire – Alexandrie,dam Bering,sire -Strictly Raised
(french) (1/2 french)
A bit rudimentary but I make it Butlers is about 3/8 french.
#265
January 24th, 2009 22:23
Am I the only person on here that rates Character Building’s chances?
Finished a good 3rd today over hurdles. Here are the comments in the Racing Post race analysis…
“Character Building was presumably running here in order to preserve his chase rating for a tilt at the Grand National. He had won on his last outing over hurdles and despite having been upped 10lb since, was still able to compete from a 10lb lower mark than he is currently rated over fences. He put up a sound run in defeat over a trip short of his best and remains bang on course for Aintree in April.”
He is a 9 year old, rating of 140, 3rd in a Hennessy to Denman, 2nd in the 4m Chase at the Festival to Butler’s Cabin. Out of the top 4 only once in a 17 race career.
Anybody else at all rate his chances?
#266
January 25th, 2009 09:33
Stephen, I’m also very interested in CB. If the Eider does turn out to be is prep I think he needs to win it. Is the Eider a grade2? Also a bit worried about whether he’ll make the cut. Incidentally the Eider could once again be a good pointer to National as I think Rambling Minster is intending to run.
By the way, from previous post it looks a bit confusing but it’s Alexandrie who’s French and Bering who’s half french in Butlers bloodline.
#267
January 25th, 2009 10:26
Shame Hot Weld didnt turn out yesterday. Think he may need to be scratched from the equation….
#268
January 25th, 2009 10:40
Yes Crisp the Eider is indeed a Class 2 race. At the moment he seems to be on the cusp of everyones trends. Going off the trends kindly provided by systemsman somewhere above…
1. OR 136 to 144 (10/11 trend)
CB – rating is 140
2. RPR rating 144minimum (9/10, 10 from 10 by 15th Jan)
CB – Best RPR is 143
3. Won chase value £17,000 or more (11/11)
CB – Won chase worth £9,760
4. 3 Chase wins (any type) or more (9/10, 10/10 by 19th Feb)
CB – 2 Chase wins
5. Age 8 to 12 (12/12)
CB – Age 9
6. Completed in 10 Chases (9/10, 10/10 by 15th Jan)
CB – Ran in 9 chases
7. Won over 24f or more (11/11, 9/11 at 25f or more)
CB – Won over 26f
8. Won Class 1 or 2 Chase-any type (11/11)
CB – Won Class 3 Chase
9. TS rating minimum of 111 (12/12, TS 128 or more 7/11)
CB – Best TS of 130
Like I say, he is on the verge of 5 of the 9 trends above. If here were to win the Eider he would fit into atleast 8 of them if not the full 9. In addition, he has been placed in a Hennessy and ran in a “National”.
I just think we should keep an eye on him as no one really seems to have mentioned him apart from Crisp and myself.
What are everyones views?
#269
January 25th, 2009 11:11
Sorry guys but unless CB can win a £17,000 chase its only running for a place in my book.But like i said before COD wasn’t high on anyones list until it won the Eider.I have one word for today and it is SUBLIMITY……….
#270
January 25th, 2009 11:21
daniel i think with great regret i agree with you about hot weld. it aint going to happen is it.has not run now for 21 months and even i with him as my no 2 on list have to move on.
#271
January 25th, 2009 11:25
hi wacky, i really value your input on this blog but we cant agree on ote at the moment. (butlers cabin) you have to be more BRAVE my little inca.
#272
January 25th, 2009 11:46
Hi All – not posted this year yet but excellent banter like last year. Can someone clarify the Top Speed requirement – should we be looking for the minimum top speed over the horses history, for example does a hurdle race count?
#273
January 25th, 2009 12:44
Character Building is entered in the Red Square Vokda Gold Cup at Haydock on 14th February (see Racing Post website)
CB has been found wanting in a finish at Cheltenham recently, although a flatter track like Aintree might suit him better
#274
January 25th, 2009 13:35
Hi Ryme NO Reason,You have to except that we all can’t see eye to eye about everything all the time.If we did the bookies would have to make BC odds on fav for the race as they wouldn’t have any opposition!!!Keep trying all you never now i may change my mind!!!Ha Ha Ha
#275
January 25th, 2009 15:54
Character Building has to win a Chase of £17,000 or more to be in any short list (he also need a better RPR – essential)- now if he was to win the Eider anything is possible but only if, a bif if (with a RPR of 144 or more).
#276
January 25th, 2009 16:29
Been re reviewing the fild again and had a look at my old friend Parsons Legacy that I and others had for the short list last year
Profile Parsons Legacy
OR 146 (possible 10.11 or therabouts if 135 is 10.00 without Denman)- winning weight.
RPR best 155 (very good)
TS best 141 (very good)
Won Class 1(39K) and C2 HC(this year) so passe the 1st, 2nd or 3rd in GN year test)
Won 4 Chases from 21 runs (has the experiance and wins)
Age 11 (still a winning age (just)
Won over 26f (good)
3rd in Scots Nat 07
5th in 2006 Henessey
Not a bad profile is it – now what do you think out there? – I would really like to know.
P.S. He’s Irish – not French!!
Available at 33/1 in the High Street (a winning price at this stage)
#277
January 25th, 2009 17:00
nothing new though is it systems,we all were primed last year and indeed this but the only chink is IF he runs again.if so i am sure 75% of us will be on him. got burnt last year anti-post so waiting as i dont think he will or never will run the gn.think that may be down to the owners.
#278
January 25th, 2009 17:24
Systems, Parsons is in my list at the moment. Great Hennessey and National run in his locker. Recent chase he pulled up in was on ground he didn’t like, I dont think there is an injury problem(does anyone know?)He seems a bit fragile but horses like him have won before(Aldaniti,Miinnehoma etc.) Hopefully top OR is 160 plus and he’ll carry under 11st and have a cracking chance. llyr olds have a good record but have the current longest losing streak of 8-12 yr olds in the race so perhaps this is the year!(I know it’s not scientific but this was one of the final reasons I put Amberleigh House in my very shortlist in 04, 12yr olds hadn’t won for nine years)
#279
January 25th, 2009 19:47
hi guys another great threat wacky systemsman and silver birch are true legends …………. i’m not a horse type but love the national each year ive got an early bet on butlers cabin on reading this just one question has arisen after googling some of the top contenders this year ….
for those fancying hear the echo yes an irish national winner but is 4 falls from 18 starts (i think) an issue to add to the equation.
#280
January 25th, 2009 21:34
A “wait and see” on Parsons. If he runs and has 10.something I would want him on my list.
Getting very hard to see anything to give Butlers Cabin’s profile a run for his money (such a low weight IF he gets in on 10.00 and so much class). I’am still working on that new review.
Silver Birch is right to put these two in the list (my order after Butlers Cabin or 135):
2. Hear the Echo OR 145
3. Black Appalachi OR 146
+
Himalayan Trail OR 141(will run if Denman does not it would appear)
Sorry but they are all short priced (33/1 or less in the High Street).
But I think we are now waiting for the weights and a good run or two from a few after the weights (the Eider will be most revealing)are published – a 1st, 2nd or 3rd this season is very important.
#281
January 26th, 2009 12:18
Just a point regarding Hear The Echo. I know this horse is an 8 year old but if you look at its date of birth it is 26th March 2001. Now come Grand National day the horse will only have been 8 for 8 days – is this not a concern? If I am reading too much into it then apologies!
#282
January 26th, 2009 14:22
My only issue with Parsons Legacy is that he will not only need genuine good ground, but he might not even line up if it is Good-Soft. With the time of the year and the watering, Gd-Sft looks the most likely ground most years now, so that would be off putting, which is a shame, cos he was my biggest antepost bet back in August/September and at 120/1 stands to make me a fair bit of wonga!!
#283
January 26th, 2009 15:43
I had an Ante Post bet on Parsons last year and then he didnt line up so can’t have another one with what happened last year. My concern as well with Parsons is the ground and also he has only had 2 runs this season. I know there is plenty of time for another run but no entries on Racing Post at the moment. As an 11 year old this would be its last chance so maybe connections will go for it. He would need to put in a decent run in though between now and the big day if I was to back it.
#284
January 26th, 2009 21:33
Almost completed my new review and have found a surppise entry for the short list (almost a perfect profile). I know Brain will be pleased. Any gueses before I post the results soon?
I am surprised how short the short list of possible winners is – around 9 or 10 with good trends.
P.S. Denman is entered for the GN – confirmed today but dont worry its only to cover a possible early fall in GN or training upset (and he would still have to be fit for the GN!). Weights Day is going to look very odd.
#285
January 26th, 2009 21:39
And Silver Birch will be pleased – we are almost in agreement with the short list.
Come on I’ve made it easy now: the mysetery short list horse is? Tip: see my December notes.
I think things are just about getting a little clearer for a serious short list at this stage (but will they all run?).
#286
January 26th, 2009 21:44
Its not Southern Vic is it Systemsman? Just had a look at its profile and ticks all the right boxes. My only issue is that it has not run in an Irish, Welsh, Scotish Nat or Hennessey.
#287
January 26th, 2009 21:50
….next guess High Chimes
#288
January 27th, 2009 02:40
Glad to hear you’re in good health again Systemsman.
Now..as the Americans would say…post up that updated list already
#289
January 27th, 2009 09:59
I think as Dan says Systems man – is the mystery horse Southern Vic ?- could be argued hes a dark horse because we never realy saw what he was made of at aintree becuase he unseated at the canal turn , therefore he could still be well handicapped.. is this the correct answer – great to hear we are thinking alike or very close on the short list .. looks like the same suspects keep popping up
– so assuming they are entered today its maybe time for another quiet dabble from me on betfair 2 night.. 
#290
January 27th, 2009 11:20
Well Systemsman out of the 3 that i said had the closest to a perfet profile im hoping its Garde Champetre and that it bypasses Cheltenham and takes its chance in the national.
#291
January 27th, 2009 11:31
Has anybody got any ideas on the rules of raising weights when a top weight withdraws? Read a few articles recently but none of them defined the exact procedure. Just wondering because back in 78 Red Rum, 11st 13lbs pulled out on the Friday night injured but, presumably because this was after the final declaration of runners, weights were not raised and top weight was 11st 6lbs. In 1980 a similar thing happened,I think top weight was 11st 9lbs, and again weights were not raised and top weight was only 11st 4lbs. Will Denman be kept in the race until such a late stage before being pulled out? Perhaps once the weights are out somebody will clear this matter up.
#292
January 27th, 2009 13:04
Dan and Silver Birch spot on – its Southern Vic – probably the best trends profile – have a look. Only betfair give odds on him at the moment. Anyone know any more?
Will post more on this later in the week.
#293
January 27th, 2009 13:30
Crisp,
The BHA website has a section on handicapping which deoesn’t answer the specific question but is quite interesting.
The Media pack for the GN available from the Aintree website has the answer in the ‘race conditions’ page – the last opportunity for weights to be raised is 9.30 am on the Friday before the race.
Any withdrawl of top weight after this point will leave weights unchanged.
I would imagine the lastest Denman would be withdrawn is the 48 hr stage for reasons other than injury. In this instance the weights would increase.
#294
January 27th, 2009 14:22
One of my concerns about southern vic is he only seems to run in winter on soft / heavy ground.
Will he enjoy running in April on good / good to soft ground.
Out of interest Systemsman what did Garde Champetre fail on on your re-assessment of the trends?
#295
January 27th, 2009 14:32
Admin and I discussed Southern Vic on the Becher thread. Cant remember why but we ruled him out I think
#296
January 27th, 2009 14:43
Thanks for that Gammers. I’m just thinking that perhaps the weights we see on weights day will be the weights whether Denman runs or not.
#297
January 27th, 2009 14:52
crisp 73 Says:
January 27th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Thanks for that Gammers. I’m just thinking that perhaps the weights we see on weights day will be the weights whether Denman runs or not.
I dont think that is the case Crisp, unless I have misunderstood what you are saying. The year Hedgehunter won there was a late withdrawl was there not, and he went up to 11_01 from 10_12. If Denman, or whoever else is top weight pulls out, they will change.
Or are you saying that you think Denman might only pull out 24 hours before?? Whilst I am not exactly the biggest fan of Paul Nicholls, im not sure he is that much of an ar5e!!
#298
January 27th, 2009 14:53
I would think unlikely. Personally the only two situations I can see where the Feb 10 weights remain unchanged are;
a) Denman runs – consensus is only if he does not complete the Gold Cup.
b) Significant event between 9.30am Fri and the off – injury to Denman or significant change in the going to make him a late NR.
For me the most likely scenario is Denman being officially withdrawn on 17 March, at the second forfeit stage and after the GC, tho Nicholls would probably let it be known over the preceeding weekend.
#299
January 27th, 2009 15:15
Is it possible for Denman to be rated lower than he should be so it is more of a compressed field.
I personally believe top weight will be rated about the 160 mark regardless of whether Denman runs or not. Which would mean bottom weight would have a rating of 136.
#300
January 27th, 2009 15:19
I do believe the handicapper has some discretion to make it a ‘compressed handicap’ although I am not an expert in matters of handicapping, so will let one of our more qualified residents take up the theme…
post 300 by the way!! Great work on the site Admin. Any thought of turning this into a forum, making it a bit more user friendly in the process?
#301
January 27th, 2009 15:56
Just heard some sad news. Slim Pickings broke a leg on the gallops and has been put down.
#302
January 27th, 2009 16:11
Brian – good debate about the compression of the handicap – i think denmans currently rated 182 so id be amazed if phil smith gives him 160 – thatd be letting him in a stone and a half lighter than his mark – surely there would be uproar everywhere – ive been guessing he will get 172 .. (hey admin what about a prize for the person who guesses denmans handicap mark correctly! -) this particular aspect of the national will be facinating as so many different judges have quoted a different number – i cant see phil smith going any lower than 170 ….
#303
January 27th, 2009 16:41
At 170 tho bottom weight would have a rating of 146. And i just cant see he will let that many horses run out of the handicap.
I think he is going to take a gamble on Denman not running and it will back fire (or not as he might be wanting Denman to run)
I’ll split the difference tho and go for 165
#304
January 27th, 2009 18:13
Having come second in the race the previous two years, Suny Bay was OR 169 (11 stone 13) in 1999 the year when Bobbyjo won (14 lb out of the handicap – bottom weight 10 stone OR 142 – 10 or more horses ran out of the handicap that year)
Surely Denman has to be rated at least 170?
#305
January 27th, 2009 18:18
What was Master Oats OR in the national he ran in having just won the GC?
#306
January 27th, 2009 18:21
173 is the answer. Why I asked rather than looking myself I dont know!!
This was in 1995 and he carried 11_10. The winner Royal Athlete won with an OR of 155 carrying 10_06.
Granted that was 14 years ago and the handicappers brief has changed somewhat since then, but on that basis I cant see Denman going off below 170, even if he puts in a bad run at Newbury next weekend.
#307
January 27th, 2009 22:36
Brian: “Out of interest Systemsman what did Garde Champetre fail on on your re-assessment of the trends”? I never said he failed or was not in the short list but I havnt yet confirmed it either!!
Wait just a few days and all will be revealed – I want to do a prpeper job when I post the new review.
#308
January 28th, 2009 11:16
Garde Champetre is right on the money trends wise, but I think the Cross Country at Cheltenham will be his aim, as opposed to the GN, and if he runs a big race there, then it is hard to see him being in the frame come Aintree, or so I think anyway.
#309
January 28th, 2009 13:07
Excellent comments Daniel about Garde Champetre (great trends but a X country specialist and will want to win at Cheltenham) which I agree with.
#310
January 28th, 2009 14:10
I wish I had realised that before I had my ante post bet in September though!
Still, there’s always next year
#311
January 28th, 2009 14:24
so does noone think the 23days apparently between events will increase cheltenham runners chances
#312
January 28th, 2009 14:38
Its actually 22, with the GC now the Friday as opposed to the Thursday of the old 3 days festival (my mistake)
I think it may well help this year, but I still think it is a big consideration. It has been a 3 week gap before, and yet still only Seagram since 1934 has won at the festival and gone on to win at Aintree.
Anyway, the entries have just been announced. Anybody lost any antepost bets? I lost my small one on A New Story, but I was resigned to that a while ago anyway. Bewleys Berry not entered. Anyone noticed any others not entered that they are surprised by.
I see Eurotrek is entered. Real shame for him he’s been out injured for so long, because he always looked a National horse to me. 13 now though and without a run for a good 2 years…
#313
January 28th, 2009 15:05
123 entries to work through – 3 six yo’s 7 seven yo’s and 3 thirteen yo’s so down to 110 already…
#314
January 28th, 2009 15:15
Denman and the National.
Does anyone think Denman will win the Gold Cup? I think Wacky said something earlier about things being against him. He’ll only have one prep run, only two horse in forty years have won more than one Gold Cup etc. And if Denman doesn’t win it, will he be more or less likely to run at Aintree? How will it affect other potential runners? Might trainers of low rated horses gamble all on Cheltenham thinking that they might not get a run at Aintree anyway or that they will be over a stone out of the handicap? Will all the classy horses stay in the National if Denman doesn’t run? Fascinating stuff.
#315
January 28th, 2009 15:24
arrrgghh!! I had ruled him out of the GN and then you go and say that!!
I think if he has a hard race and places, he wont run in the GN either. Whilst the stats for the GC are against him, he has looked special so far, and special horses break the stats.
That said, my money is on Kauto, unless Denman really proves himself on Saturday week, in which case, its up for grabs. Cant see past those two though
#316
January 28th, 2009 15:25
If there is ever a year horses running @cheltenham
can win the GN I think this could be it!
I think if a super horse runs at cheltenham it could definately place in the GN and maybe even win?!
I don’t mean Denman necessarily, isn’t a heart op serious?
interesting other class horses to consider.
I see War of Attrition is entered, any thoughts..
Don’t think Garde Champetre is better than Spot the Diff.
but I do have a soft ’spot’ for him!!!
Eurotrek was a real national horse I followed too Daniel,
I am shocked with his entry at 13 after 2yrs out,
not kind is it.
Also see Silver Birch is in, after 2yrs out too,
bit younger but fragile legs ooohh!
can they have any chance? its unlikey previous winners even get a fair weight!
#317
January 28th, 2009 15:37
I think Eurotrek and Silver Birch are entered on a ‘lets wait and see’ basis. Silver Birch could be interesting, but as you say, a lot of questions marks also.
I am not an expert on the issue of ‘fibrilating hearts’ but somebody I talk to regularly is and she tells me it is a very big deal and many horses never recover properly. That’s why Denman has to win and win really well at Newbury to make me want to back him in the GC.
#318
January 28th, 2009 15:39
Once again I agree Daniel (re: Denman)”I think if he has a hard race and places, he wont run in the GN either. Whilst the stats for the GC are against him, he has looked special so far, and special horses break the stats”.
Gold Cup: Its Denman or Kauto Star so back both at 7/4 and 3/1 and win otherever wins of these two (the professional thing to do). I’am still with Denman to make it 2 from 2! (but i will have a saver on Kauto).
If Denman runs in the 2009 GN I am happy to get it wrong this year – no one can get 100%. But dont worry lads/lasses he wont!!!!!! Now next year (2010 GN)will be the REAL problem to sort out!
#319
January 28th, 2009 15:50
Southern Vic is the steamer lads and lasses ….the bookies are taking no chances with this one … only 25s and 33s now . the bookies are running scared of you systems man
#320
January 28th, 2009 15:58
See the GN 2009 entries list at:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/7856143.stm
Notable NON entries – wll not run (makes our job so much easier!)
Old Benny
Iris de Balme
Royal County Star
Irish Raptor
Glasker Mill
A New Story
Gypsey George
Intersting Darkness still in there.
#321
January 28th, 2009 16:09
high chimes, an accordion and over the creek out too…
#322
January 28th, 2009 16:21
The entries of these quality horses is confusing everything! In my opinion, the only one likely to run is Joe Lively and I reckon he may take his chance even if Denman pulls out. This would mean topweight OR = 166. Otherwise, it’s Cloudy Lane (159). So, if Joe Lively enters, Bottom Weight would be an OR of 142. This puts BC 7lb wrong, C.o.D. on 10-10 and my mate Hear the Echo on 10-3. Could we be looking at a back to back winner? Don’t think so, but Hear the Echo off 10-3 looks cracking to me! If he doesn’t run, Cloudy Lane will be topweight and I think I’ve discussed possible weights in this event.
With regard to Southern Vic, I can’t be having this one (see my post of 21 Jan). I’m all for protecting your handicap, but he’s not performed well in a 3m+ chase since Jan 06 when he won a novice chase! Surely you can’t consider him can you? For me, he’s not worth a pound of anyone’s money. Don’t do it!!!
#323
January 28th, 2009 16:26
Notelppa … good post.. made me laugh in relation to the southern vic bit . im going to have to apologise in advance
but i cant control my urges and i will b having a bet on southern vic.. hes just one of these hunch horses who coincidentally passes all of the main trends . if u look back to the thyestes 2-3 years back he was trying to give black apalachi nearly two and a half stone – yet when they turn up at aintree black ap might have to give away as much as 5 lbs – thats veering on nearly a 3 stone turn around at the weights .. ill be having a nibble . may god have mercy on my soul 
#324
January 28th, 2009 16:54
Oh well, live by the trends, die by the trends I suppose. How stupid will I look if he wins now? I promise not to post on next year’s blog if Southern Vic wins this year. I’d be too embarrassed! Poor fella has only come down 4lb since that Thyestes race 2 years ago (in which he fell) then unseated in the Becher (his only attempt at National fences) and then 3rd in when coming back in distance.
#325
January 28th, 2009 17:07
Hello chaps, sorry I haven’t posted for a while, but I’ve been away for a bit.
Nicholls was quoted as saying a month or so ago that if Denman runs a big race in the GC then he will be withdrawn from the Grand National entries. Can anyone honestly envision Denman not being placed in the top 3!?
I think Denman will win on his re-appearance and then take the Gold Cup, but it could easily be a harder run race than last year. Therefore, as stated in earlier posts, I can’t see Denman running in the National. With his withdrawal I think a few of the higher rated horses will also pull out, which I’m hopeful of because I think it’ll make it easier for us.
#326
January 28th, 2009 17:13
Notelppa, good point on COD. And Silver Birch would carry even less!
On the Southern Vic front the previous most recent winner I can find with a similar profile is Specify, ‘71. Only two 3 mile wins with some good form in some good races, Specify also fell in his previous appearance over National fences, ‘70 GN. SV wasn’t disgraced in the ‘96 Lexus. Now if he won another 3 miler after the weights are released ….
#327
January 28th, 2009 17:16
Too right Jimmy. I think they’re talking about not entering him if he runs a big race. If he does, then great he’ll be scratched. If he doesn’t, you have to ask yourself why this is and surely he wouldn’t be right. In this case, there’s no way they’ll want him to lug 11-10 round 4 1/2 miles at Aintree with a dodgy ticker. Whatever form he shows on his return, they can’t justify his entry after his layoff and heart problems.
#328
January 28th, 2009 17:34
Goodpoint Crisp – i think sv could win the bobbyjo chase (3m) after the weights are announced .then hed qualify on all the trends from sys man and yourself… ill keep on dreaming…
#329
January 28th, 2009 17:37
Having looked at the entries and current OR’s im gonna go for Denman been rated for the National at 172 (had forgot about Joe lively and worked out the 165 on Cloudy Lane) as i cant see the handicapper putting Denman any higher than 6lbs above the second rated horse
I dont think Denman will run anyways regardless of his run in the Gold cup. Next year will more than likely be his year especially if only placed in the gold cup this year and not bidding for the hatrick.
Not sure Garde Champetre running at cheltenham is going to be that big a deal than most races run at cheltenham so going to have a good look at him in more detail.
The only problem were causing now is driving the prices down when a few people are agreeing on certain horses so im pleased if no-one agrees with me on Garde Champetre for the time being and those that do then shhhh for a bit lol
#330
January 28th, 2009 17:38
Crisp, the 06 Lexus was over 2 years ago and even if using this as a form line wouldn’t make me want to back him, beaten 5 1/2 lengths by L’ami at levels? If that’s supposed to be a ray of hope, it’s a slim one for a horse on 143! Still, the one thing he may have going for him is the fact that he might be carrying 10-1 so may not give any horse more than a pound. Could he beat C.o.D receiving only 9lb, Black Apalachi receiving 3lb or Hear the Echo receiving 2lb?
#331
January 28th, 2009 17:58
Looking through the full list all of the none french believers along wih the age trend then thats 37 horses already eliminated so far so that makes it a lot easier for you.
#332
January 28th, 2009 19:02
With the demise of Slim, it only adds to the view that
this is such a draining race, it takes its toll physically on horses that win or place.
Placing twice is no small feat, and the recent history of previous winners future in racing at all is poor. It takes a mighty machine.
Even with CODs totally smooth win last year and having potentially a decent weight this year, his reappearances have been poor and form is no.1 on my list,(other j/f my psychic antennae still not working, too much thinking) at his best he can win but for most horses once is enough.
KJC could be the comeback kid! connections happy with progress, running point to point sat. will see, well hear! then how he feels.
Is it true many horses may be having less prep runs this year with the frost and waterlogging courses have had?
Anyway, its hard to dismiss horses that have run well before in this race even if statistics say no way!
I am still considering Cornish and Mon mome as they have form and my only antepost bet I have is Black Ap.
I probably should be looking at 1st timers!
#333
January 28th, 2009 19:47
Notelppa “With regard to Southern Vic, I can’t be having this one (see my post of 21 Jan). I’m all for protecting your handicap, but he’s not performed well in a 3m+ chase since Jan 06 when he won a novice chase! Surely you can’t consider him can you? For me, he’s not worth a pound of anyone’s money. Don’t do it!!!”
What?
Sothern Vic has to be in any short list curently (I will post mine in the next few days).
Joe Lively will run in the Gold up for a place and lots of money then he will be withdrawn from the GN alng with Denman(or be too tired to win).
Back to Southern Vic
3rd in Jan 2009 in G2 Chase!!!(sign of a return to form. TS 139!)
Has won a Grade 1 Novice Chase (36K)
OR 143
Best RPR 159 (!)
Bets TS 146 (!)
Check out Oddschecker.com – a horse who only Betfair was quoting yesterday is now 25/1 – to 33/1 (thoes i the know think he can win).
I got 50/1 with Coral today – lump on while you can.
Its loking like Cloudy Lane (159)will be top weight on the day making:
10.00 OR 135 (imagine what Butlers Cabin wil do with this feather weight!! Note to all: his price is dropping already – 10 bookies with <20/1 now)
10.13 OR 148
Sothern Vic would carry 10.08 on OR 143 (a good winnable weight)
Notelppa think again!
#334
January 28th, 2009 19:53
28 horses aged 8-12 with an OR of 136-144. The fly in the ointment is the 7 horses rated 160+. May throw one of our favourite stats out the window.
Best guess at top-weight come race day SNOOPY LOOPY
#335
January 28th, 2009 20:00
According to RP website quotes about Nozic – he will almost certainly be entered for the National – OR 161
Which means Southern Vic on 10.06!
#336
January 28th, 2009 20:15
Systemsman the owner of joe lively is very keen on going for the national this year so it might not be a foregone conclusion he’ll not go.
Plus even if he does drop out i think other horses above Cloudy Lane will stay in so Butlers will either be running out of the handicap or not even make it in.
#337
January 28th, 2009 21:28
Brian a Pound ot two or three out of the handicap for Butlers is no problem.
Southern Vic was 129/1 nBetfair a few week ago now 24/1 tonight! (Coral offered me 50/1 today so try them first if any left tomorrow).
Silver Birch “Southern Vic is the steamer lads and lasses ….the bookies are taking no chances with this one … only 25s and 33s now . the bookies are running scared of you systems man”
I’ve said before the bookies miss nothing including this site but it is important to see where the money goes in the next 24hours and again on weights day (+ 24 hours) and the night before (and morning of)the race for clues (you would have found the winner in 2008 by doing this)
I think the aim is not that only one horse can win the GN but to have a portfolio of 5/6 which include the winner at the biggest price posible.
Brian “Systemsman the owner of joe lively is very keen on going for the national this year so it might not be a foregone conclusion he’ll not go”.
Dont we get this every year with many high OR potential runners? When he comes 3/4th in the Gold Cup (Joe Lively OR 166) or has had a hard run would they then want him in the GN just 22 odd days later?
#338
January 28th, 2009 22:17
Ur right systems man , u need about 5 or 6 horses if u want to hit the bullseye
REVISED LISTS AFTER TODAY
WITHOUT DENMAN WITH DENMAN
Butlers Cabin Black Apalachi
Black Apalachi Hear the Echo
Himlayan Trail Southern Vic
Hear the Echo State of Play
Southern Vic Joe Lively
Trabolgan
#339
January 28th, 2009 22:26
Your optimistic Joe Lively will place in the gold Cup is there summit you want to tell us systemsman lol.
But yes i know what you mean about it happens every year but i really think some high OR horses will stay in depending on when Denman drops out. Think some will think there on a good weight because of the Denman factor and then if he drops out at a late stage it could be too late to try and persuade the owners to drop out as well (if that all makes sense)
I have heard on the grapevine that from weights day some bookmakers are going to do 2 books on the national this year; 1 with denman and 1 without. Has anyone else heard this??
It could be a good thing for us who believe Denman will not run as we’ll be able to get slighter higher price by betting on the with Denman book
#340
January 28th, 2009 22:39
Looking at where the money has gone tonight these are the most likely winners of the GN 2009 (an alternatibe method to our trends)
Listed in two blocks (in rougth order) – those under 30/1 with Betfiar first (and the most likely winners)
Butlers Cabin
Notre Pere
Southern Vic
Black Aplaachi
Hear The Echo
Chelsea Harbour
Denman
Comply Or Die
Those listed over 30/1 – 50/1 on Betfair second
Priests Leap
My Will
Madison Du Bulais
Air Force One
Exotic Dancer
Imperial Commander
Simon
War Of Attriction
Star De Mohaison
Conan Castle
Food for thought – I really dont like the second block but the winner may well lie in the first!!!
#341
January 28th, 2009 22:45
Sorry try again with the right format
WITHOUT DENMAN / WITH DENMAN
Butlers Cabin
Black Apalachi
Himlayan Trail
Southern Vic
Hear the Echo
State of Play
Joe Lively
Trabolgan
War of Attrition
What about war of attrition .. ?? 80s on betfair tonight – or 163 – lets jusy say denman turns up and gets 172. then we have an ex gold cup winner hovering on the 11 stone marker… he could be the surprise package that nobody even considered.!!!
#342
January 28th, 2009 22:50
Out of the first block i like the look of BC, Southern Vic, Black apalachi, HTE and CoD (undecided about Chelsea Harbour).
I would also add Madison Du Berlais from the second block as well as Himalayan trail and Garde Champetre.
so thats a short list of 8 (possibly 9 with Chelsea Harbour) for me at the moment. Will get te list down to four just after weights day and then i’ll be looking for a reserve incase one drops out and a long shot for an each way chance.
#343
January 28th, 2009 23:28
I still feel ruling out Character Building could be dangerous.
He is on the verge of matching all trends. One win after weights day and he is bang in contention. I still feel he is now to be honest.
#344
January 28th, 2009 23:45
Good List Brian – similar to mine (not bothered by COD though).
The jury is out on Character Building until he has won a good Chase ths season.
#345
January 29th, 2009 09:11
seems like paul barber is beginning to shy away from running denman based on comments in the sporting life this morn …
#346
January 29th, 2009 10:01
I think with only 123 entries you may find less than the full allocation of 40 runners this year. There is much that will happen between now and the beginning of April
#347
January 29th, 2009 10:01
You can tell me he meets all the stats all you like, but until Southern Vic puts a good performance this season over fences, I aint backing him!!
#348
January 29th, 2009 10:06
Notelppa. What is your reasoning for criticising my praise for Southern Vic’s performance in the ‘06 Lexus based on? Yes, he was beaten by L’Ami by 5 and a half lengths at level weights. So? L’Ami was a very, very good 3 miler. Let me refresh your memory. The previous season L’Ami had finished 2nd in the in Hennessey with
11-5, finished less than 12 lengths behind Kicking King in the King George and less than 11 lengths behind War Of Attrition in the Gold Cup. In that Lexus season 06-07 L’ami, receiving only 10lbs of Kauto Star was beaten by a neck in the AON chase, and then finished less than 13 lengths behind Kauto in Gold Cup. Anyway why do you choose to ignore that he also finished less than 10 lengths behind War Of Attrition in that ‘06 Lexus?
By the way, Southern Vic also has the important ‘win in his last ten chases’, trend which goes back a long way with National winners. Personally I would want him to win another 3miler before I have a punt on him.
#349
January 29th, 2009 10:56
Thanks for the advice on Southern Vic. There’s no doubt he’s been a decent enough horse but he’s failed to finish in 2 of his last 3 chases. The exception being over 2m1f. His last win at 3m+ was over 3 years ago. If there aren’t one or two better jumpers with more stamina, I’d be amazed. Good luck to him though and if he wins it’ll be one for the stats. Having said that, people were saying the same for D’Argent last year but he was never going to be good enough over the distance and I’m glad I didn’t split my C.o.D. money on him and reduce my winnings. If you end up backing 7 or 8 horses, how much money can you make? I’ll say congrats to anyone who got a big price and laid him off for a profit or free bet though as if you make your money before the race, it doesn’t matter where he finishes.
#350
January 29th, 2009 11:03
He has only run twice beyond 3 miles, and failed to finish on either occasion (f/UR) so not only are there perhaps jumping question marks, we have no idea if he stays either!!
that is why I am not backing him….yet
#351
January 29th, 2009 11:35
I think the 8 Feb will be the day to decide on wether Southern Vic is worth a punt or not.
Speaking of D’argent i see he is entered into it again. Its hard to see what the Owner / Trainer think is possible to change after his run last year. Yes he was up near the front but then he had already started to fade badly before being hampered and unseated.
#352
January 29th, 2009 11:39
…plus the fact Alan King had previously said “He is not an Aintree horse” and “he hates the fences” or words to that effect. Look in the quote section of the RP website. they are in there. Luckily I spotted them before the race last year and ruled out accordingly.
#353
January 29th, 2009 11:57
Wow, such divided opinion on Southern Vic. Does anyone know his plans? I see he’s entered in the Hennesy. A place there would be interesting. That performance (if he runs) will be a massive pointer. My big concern at the moment is with my 2nd choice, Butler’s Cabin. My current guess is he’ll be 7lb out of the handicap (based on Joe Lively being topweight).
#354
January 29th, 2009 12:02
Im still working on the top OR being between 155-158. That’s what its been the last 5 years. What has it been in the years before that?
#355
January 29th, 2009 12:03
out of the 18 runners quoted by Ladbrokes for the Irish Hennessy, Southern Vic is 33/1. Only two horses are quoted bigger. Available at 55/1 on Betfair.
So people dont fancy him to run a big race there either.
#356
January 29th, 2009 12:16
Daniel Edwards Says:
January 29th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
Im still working on the top OR being between 155-158. That’s what its been the last 5 years. What has it been in the years before that?
Between 1997 – 2007 top OR has been 173, 170, 169, 153, 153, 158, 158, 155, 155, 156, 158
So there has been a trend recently that Top OR has come down from what it use to be but i wouldn’t work everything out on Top OR being round the 158 mark this year. There are some very likely runners round the mid 160’s this year.
#357
January 29th, 2009 12:17
Re top weight, I would think you have to take each year on its own merit. Denman’s entered so there’s no reason to think either that the handicapper will be leniant to Joe Lively or that he will pull out. Logic would say, therefore, that 166 is the figure. The lowest it will be is 159 (Cloudy Lane).
#358
January 29th, 2009 12:19
Ive had my own personal go as to how the morning’s newspaper will look on grand nat morning. I reckon WOA will run as then its a cert that HTE will carry less than eleven stone. I think the biggest problem for Butlers and Himalayan is whether they will actually make the cut.. !
hcap
160 war of attrition 11-12
158 joe lively 11-8
148 state of play 10-12
148 trabolgan 10-12
146 black apalachi 10-10
145 hear the echo 10-09
143 southern vic 10-07
140 character building 10-04
136 himalayan trail 10-0 will they get in ??
135 butlers cabin 09-13 will they get in ??
#359
January 29th, 2009 12:20
Thanks for that Brian. You are right about a lot of likely runners around the 160-165 mark this year. I may re adjust and make it 160-165.
#360
January 29th, 2009 12:25
Anybody with any interest in Cornish Sett? Like Wacky I’m very wary of the stat of unplaced horses coming back to win but.. there’s always a but!!
The last horse to do so was Rag Trade. Tenth in ‘75, Rag was a rejeuvanted horse the following season and won the Welsh National before winning at Aintree (actually with 8lbs more thanhe had when he flopped the previous year), Cornish seems of a similar profile and has won the Bagder Ales and come second in Welsh National- virtually the best from of his career. Decent bloodline (Accordian)OR 144? I think, 140/10-10 last year. So he will probably be carrying a few pounds less this year. Has also won(dead heat) a Grade 1 over 20f so lots of speed there somewhere. True, he was receiving 8lbs from Notre Pere in Welsh National, beaten 7 lengths, but I think NP is going places(if its soft/heavy on ”Friday 13th” Gold Cup day then you might say a few ‘our fathers’/Notre Pere, to see your horse home!)
NB;Great race at Haydock on Sat 14th Feb. 28f. And weights will already be out!
Alan King seems to have ruled out Halcon, to be fair he’s not a very big horse, from National by suggesting the Scottish Nat is the one for him.
#361
January 29th, 2009 12:27
Birchy, 2 points – 1: Why would the handicapper drop Joe Lively’s mark when there are horses above him in the ratings he’d want to give a chance? 2: Topeweight is 11-10 not 11-12.
#362
January 29th, 2009 12:39
Notelppa – sorry I stand corrected – typo on WOA – should be 11-10 – ill change joe lively to 162 … i didnt realise his new mark was out already from cheltenham … 166 …! crikey – i think thats the end of his grand national dreams .. i think thats a tad harsh raising him to 166….
Draft 2
162 Joe Lively 11-10
160 war of attrition 11-08
148 state of play 10-10
148 trabolgan 10-10
146 black apalachi 10-08
145 hear the echo 10-07
143 southern vic 10-05
140 character building 10-02
136 himalayan trail 09-12 will they get in ??
135 butlers cabin 09-11 will they get in ??
#363
January 29th, 2009 12:48
Cornish Sett is one that is causing me some sleepless nights Crisp!!
Re horses being unplaced and coming back to win; it doesn’t happen often as a horse who is beaten is usually not good enough! However, I think he showed in the Welsh he is improving (only 8 last year) and he actually ran well last time before fading. So to me, stamina would seem to be his issue.
If you look at his Welsh National run, he was dropped way out the back and was given every chance to reserve every last drop of juice in the tank. This worries me for Aintree. Whilst KJC did this last year, he could only get up to finish 2nd and was out stayed by COD. By using these tactics, you are making it very hard for that horse to actually challenge for victory, as you are inevitably given the leaders a big head start. Plus there’s always the chance the tank will empty just as you come to the finish and the other horse you are racing with will stay on better.
For that reason, I don’t think I can back Cornish Sett, whether he meets the stats or not. If he is a decent price (bigger than 20s say) I may well have an ew bet though.
#364
January 29th, 2009 12:55
RE Handicap. I think the average spread of weight in recent years has been about 22lbs from top to bottom, 11-12 down to 10-7 last year, and the average point of making the cut from the day the weights are declared is about 80th place.(I think it was 19 lbs and 73 last year) Looking at the entries you would expect something of about 160 something running, so if 11-10 is 160 OR then bottom weight would be between 10-0/136 and 10-5/141.
#365
January 29th, 2009 12:58
I think people are looking for the KJC type
with southern vic, there are good and bad points in there,
nothing to add to this discussion really til weights day, maybe.
Silver Birch- I finally backed Cornish Sett e/w last night, a couple of us rated him as freshly invigorated from his breathing op. glad he got your attention too! tactics of coming from way back is a problem for several reasons and that is my only real reservation, IF he gets to the first horse in a fight for the line he will put his head infront!
#366
January 29th, 2009 12:59
correction- sorry Crisp you noted him
#367
January 29th, 2009 13:02
I vouch for Crips’ stats on looking at the top 80 to find the likely runners. Amberleigh House missed out by 1 the year he missed out, and he was numbered 81.
Top 70 will be safe
anything between 80-90 risky.
Above 90, forget about it.
#368
January 29th, 2009 13:28
Wel I took 50/1 on Southern Vic with Corals but and its a BIF but both Sourthern Vic and all the other hopefulls need.
1. A 1st 2nd or 3rd in a Chase this season at 25f or more so SV still need sto prove he can pace at 25f or more this season! (but I couldnt resist the 50/1 could I?). He next two races will tell but if he was to win (or a good 2/3rd) – what price then?
2. All short list runners need a win in their last 10 runs (still time ofcourse to do this) 20/21 trend.
SILVER BIRCH like your ammended weights list (but i still think Joe Lively will be taken out after the Gold Cup – it will be a hard and very fast run taking a lot out of any horse however good).
#369
January 29th, 2009 13:30
kj Says:
January 29th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
I think people are looking for the KJC type
with southern vic, there are good and bad points in there,
nothing to add to this discussion really til weights day, maybe.
Think the 8 Feb will be more important for the discussion on Southern vic rather than finding out what weight he will be given.
The thing that is now going thro my head regarding Southern vic is im sure he is a half brother to CoD (not sure if this is correct but its just niggling away at the back of my head whenever i think about him)
Daniel Edwards Says:
January 29th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
I vouch for Crips’ stats on looking at the top 80 to find the likely runners. Amberleigh House missed out by 1 the year he missed out, and he was numbered 81.
Top 70 will be safe
anything between 80-90 risky.
Above 90, forget about it.
I second that. i’ll only be putting Ante post bets on horses who are in top 70. Below that its a waiting game.
#370
January 29th, 2009 13:37
So as it stands Butlers Cabin is joint 83rd with 6 others. If Butlers was to scrape in how is it determined out of the others rated 135 who gets in first?
#371
January 29th, 2009 14:02
don’t want to be pedantic here Brian but I did say weights DAY..all points made for and against Southern Vic have been made and made well, I am also waiting to see him run again and prove he is on the up.
Just looked at latest odds- Black Apalachi coming in.
Notre Pere was definately not running according to trainer a while ago, if any of you missed that, being 7 anyway I doubt the support for him is coming from us lot.
#372
January 29th, 2009 14:10
kj Says:
January 29th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
don’t want to be pedantic here Brian but I did say weights DAY..
Yeah i understood what you said KJ.
What i said is the 8 Feb (southern Vics next run out) will be more vital to wether he has a chance to win or not rather than waiting another 2 days to find out his weight. I think were all agreed on Southern vic needs another good run to convince us all regardless of what weight he is given.
#373
January 29th, 2009 14:15
sorry I thought weights day and his next run were on same day, my mistake
#374
January 29th, 2009 14:16
Dan Says:
January 29th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
So as it stands Butlers Cabin is joint 83rd with 6 others. If Butlers was to scrape in how is it determined out of the others rated 135 who gets in first?
They re-assess the OR of all horses on the same mark nearer to the day. So if Butlers Cabin OR on the day of re-assessment was 140 and there were others who were re-assessed as 142, 136, 133, 132 then BC would be 2nd of the current 135 brigade.
Hope thats explained it clear enough, if not im sure someone else can do a better job than me
#375
January 29th, 2009 14:18
kj Says:
January 29th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
sorry I thought weights day and his next run were on same day, my mistake
No problem KJ. Weights day is 10 Feb with it being announced on the 11 Feb.
#376
January 29th, 2009 14:30
War of Attrition would interest but is likely to be too high in the weights surely?
State of play keeps appearing in Birchys list could be an interesting one to discuss..
#377
January 29th, 2009 14:33
Thanks for that Brian.
I can’t see Butlers getting in off 135 and I have already some money on it but we will see.
Cornish Sett is also giving me a headache.
#378
January 29th, 2009 14:49
Don’t worry folks, I know you must think I’ve lost my typing hand in an industrial accident for not contributing a revised shortlist to the thread as yet; but actually just taking some time to digest the entries and the associated stats.
Revised shortlist should be sorted early next week!
#379
January 29th, 2009 15:28
Re; State Of Play. Fantastic profile but he isnt a very big. I would think that he would only run if he had under 11st on the day.
#380
January 29th, 2009 15:48
Another thing with State of Play – he needs time between races (see Quotes on RP) and if he were to run in the Gold Cup it might ruin his chance completely – if he misses Cheltenham and has under 11 stone I think he has a great chance
#381
January 29th, 2009 16:01
re State of Play agree with most of the comments above – if he gets in with under eleven stone and actually turns up then other than the OR blip im sure he passes every other major stat….and hes already been placed over 25 furlongs this year — from a stats angle hes hot , but fully understand some of the subjective viewpoints above
#382
January 29th, 2009 16:03
Regarding Irish Hennessy – in fairness 6/4 shot Neptune Collonges is rated 31 lb higher than 33/1 shot Southern Vic (according to RP) and they will be racing at levels
#383
January 29th, 2009 16:23
crisp,daniel and dan i fancied cornish sett after last years race as ithought he ran well considering just had wind op. and trainer said he really could have done with a prep race but gave him his chance.ran and jumped well so this year prep.looks better and i can see him running into a place.backed him 16/4/08 w.hills and got odds of 100-1.dont buy into finished last year cant win next,but a place would do.
#384
January 29th, 2009 16:34
I dont remember fancying him last year, just for the record!!
#385
January 29th, 2009 16:41
wasn’t saying you did touchy edwards,but i read your posting today and read that maybe you do this year or at least caught your eye for consideration.my mistake for the record.
#386
January 29th, 2009 16:51
#387
January 29th, 2009 17:07
On CURRENT RPR, Or and age, by my rough calculations it is down to just 27!!!
A lot of horses dont have their RPR listed at present though
#388
January 29th, 2009 21:04
Follow the Market – an alternative to trends (or use them together as I will).
Market Movers since last night.
Big changes are:
1. Black Apalachi now 20/1 or under with 16/16 bookies quoted. This is the biggest market change by far tonight plus some last night)
2. Butlers Cabin now <20/1 with 15/16 bookies quoted (I did give warning this could happen. Change last night and again tonight)
Some small change (down) also on:
War of Attriction (last night and tonight)
Milko De Beauchane (last night and tonight)
Some very small change (down) on:
Kilbegggan Blade (last night)
King Johns Castle (last night)
Parsons Legacy (tonight)
Endless Power (tonight)
#389
January 29th, 2009 21:06
Will try to post my new short list tommorow night (I will have the do the work now!!)
#390
January 29th, 2009 22:53
Interesting stuff, as usual Systems, especially concerning Black Apalachi. He’s 8lb higher than when he won Becher and trainer said afterwards he would want it soft, could be a non runner on good ground?
#391
January 29th, 2009 23:03
Re: Black Apalachi who should get in on 10st something. Anyone know when was the last time the Becher Chase winner won the GN in the same year if ever?
Is there any logic to the Becher Chase winner not winning the GN in the same year other than it not happening very often (if at all?). May be this is the year, as Black Apalachi fits the main trends and the money is clearly going on so far.
#392
January 29th, 2009 23:18
I’ve just gone thru the 123 horses that have been entered and applying age 8-12,no french breds,number of runs which is normally 4-6 so any unraced so far crossed out,won at 3 miles and a £17,000 chase and have been left with about 12.Now need there weight and OR plus the number of runs they will have before the big day.I think i,ve found 1 that we maybe very interested in but will try and find out a bit more before i get shot down in flames!!!
#393
January 29th, 2009 23:43
Nice work Wacky – cant wait for your list. I have 11 on my list but i too need another day for more research.
Slowly getting there I think? Anyone else got down to 10 or so?
#394
January 30th, 2009 00:25
Great work everybody,really enjoying everybodies opinions,just wondered though if we should discount french breds on account that the stats tell us they dont win,what about the stat that says 9 of the last 10 Grand National winners are Irish bred with the exception of Red Marauder who won what i thought was a non event National from a stats point of view due to most of the jockeys not wanting to race in the attrocious conditions that prevailed in that year.
#395
January 30th, 2009 11:39
Becher chase winners who ran in the National in the same season,
95 Into The Red, 11yr old, 125 OR in becher- 149 in Nat, 16lbs o/h, 5TH in Nat @ 20/1
96 Young Hustler, 9 , 164 – 166, 5TH @ 8/1
98 Samlee, 9, 133 – 143, 10o/h, 3RD @ 8/1
99 Earth Summit, 11, 157 – 156, 8TH @ 16/1
00 Feels Like Gold, 12, 126 – 134, 30 o/h, 14TH @ 28/1
04 Clan Royal, 9, 126 – 134, 2ND @ 10/1 co fav
06 Garvivonian, 11, 130 – 138, P-UP @ 11/1
07 Eurotrek, 11, 147- 154, P-UP @ 16/1
08 Mr.Pointment 9, 146 – 155, P-UP @ 25/1
Appears as though handicapper always comes down to heavily on becher winners. Good news for Black Apalchi fans is the two that placed were heavily backed so a good sign if BA continues to attract money.
#396
January 30th, 2009 11:50
Anybody interested in Rambling Minster? I think he could be a better prospect than Kilbeggan Blade though, granted he was beaten by the Blade, course specialist, at Sandown. As I put in earlier post look at Tommy Whittle last season. Minster gave weigh away 9lbs to Cloudy Lane(over his best distance) and 7lb Comply Or Die, beaten less than 10 lengths. Like the Blade, may be still a little bit too prove class wise?
#397
January 30th, 2009 11:53
Correction in earlier post, Feels Like Gold was not 30 o/h not in 2000 but in ‘99 when he came 5th!
#398
January 30th, 2009 12:16
mornin,respect due to all hard work,
my list at mo is,
black apalachi
kilbeg/blade
s.vic
h.t.echo
darkness
ramb minster
endless power
him/trail
cornish sett.
think butlers cabin the one if gets in,also around that or i think?
king harold
nadover.
think char/bld work to do.
parsons legs a bit dodgy.
can u advise where get latest or,4 list.
cheers,keep up great work.
#399
January 30th, 2009 12:19
Regarding GARDE CHAMPETRE’S running at Cheltenham and then Aintree,Silver Birch finished 2nd in the very same race and then won in 07,far from being a negative it could well be a positive!
#400
January 30th, 2009 17:38
Well someone had to be the 400th post, so I’m going to make it myself. It just goes to show how dedicated everyone is to the site and helping each other via sharing knowledge and tips (and just to think it’s still just over 2 months to the race).
Just a word of concern, I hope no one is taking information from this site and exhanging it with other forums (or the worst being on the BBC 606 section). The more people in the know the quicker the value goes.
#401
January 31st, 2009 00:00
Slight delay – my revised short list will be posted Saturday morning. I have a short list of 11.
Note on price movement.
Butlers Cabin now <18/1 with 16/16 bookies on Oddschecker.com (did I not say this would happen?).
Both Hear The Echo and Black Apalachi continue to attract support- all 3 shoud be in any short list and deerve to be leading contenders.
There is only ONE hosre with a perfect trends profile so far and its not the three above – all will be revealed tomorrow!!
#402
January 31st, 2009 00:57
The PERFECT trends profile eh!! So is that including the French trend or not cos if its not then can you wait til the afternoon before releasing the info cos i can still spot a bit of value in one horse buts its sad to see how quick the value is going on certain horses especially at this early stage.
On another note someone mentioned about trying to find the next Kings johns castle. Well there is one horse who fits a very similar profile to KJC and thats the spookily liked name of Conna’s Castle. Not a profile to win but could easy get a place if it can go the distance (but that is a big if like it was with KJC last year).
#403
January 31st, 2009 11:41
note Denmans odd for the national have lengthened …. 9-1 to 11-1 today with butlers cabin shortening.
my list as a total non-racing type just looking at a few of the trends still more work to be done on it :
Southern Vic
Chelsea Harbour
Simon
Hot Weld
War Of Attrition
Kilbeggan Blade
Preists Leap
Character Building
Black Apalachi
Butlers Cabin
Joe Lively
#404
January 31st, 2009 11:43
still don’t like the fact that hear the echo has had something like 4 falls from 18 or so starts?
#405
January 31st, 2009 12:11
Brian in order for you to get your bet on at a good price I will post my review sometime between 12.30 at 1pm – hope this helps. Yes the price does drop sometimes afer we post here.
#406
January 31st, 2009 13:19
Cheers Systemsman. My bet on and even better managed to get a free bet token whilst placing it so got another selection to make within the next 7 days (or maybe just more piled on the same one) cant beat a free bet on the national
I managed to get 40’s on my selection and already seen some places drop the price today down to as low as 25’s
#407
January 31st, 2009 13:47
ANE-POST GRAND NATIONAL 2009 SHORT LIST
Well here it is the new review of the Grand National short list. There are twelve runners on the list (if I have missed one please let me know).
These are the Nine trends plus an extra factor (*) used for the short list.
1. OR 135 to 144 1 + A, OR 144 148 1 point.
2. RPR 144 minimum 1 point.
3. TS 128 or more 1 point + B, TS 111 or more 1 point
4. Won Chase worth £17,000 or more 1 point
5. Age 8 to 12 1 point
6. Completed 10 Chases 1 point
7. Won over 25f or more 1 point +C, won over 24f 1 pont
8. Won Class 1 or 2 Chase (or Grade 1 /2) 1 point
9. 1,2nd or 3rd in a chase over 25f or more this season = * ( a key factor to shorten the short list)
10. Won in the last ten starts 1 point.
Maximum points are 9 ABC*
Note: Any runner still has time to get the * (or the point for 10 Chases if they are on 8 or 9 now)so update this list as you go along. There will probably be other runners with maximum points at a later date.
There is one, just one horse with maximum points at this stage but a few others who are close.
The short list.
9 ABC*
1. Garde Champetre
9 with three extra factors (in no order other than equal 2nd)
2. Butlers Cabin 9 ABC
2. Black Apalachi 9 BC*
2. Parsons Legacy 9 BC*
2. Kilbeggan Blade 9 AC*
2. King Harold 9 ABC
Any of the above could get maximum points if they come 1st, 2nd or 3rd in a race prior to the Grand National over 25f or more.
9 with two extra factors (in no order other than equal 3rd at this stage)
3. Hear The Echo 9 BC
3. Simon 9 BC
3. Southern Vic 9 AB
8 with three factors
4. Darkness 8 ABC (just needs another run for 9 ABC min so keep an eye on him)
8 with two factors
5. Himalayan Trail 8 AB (only 8 runs)
6. Chelsea Harbour 8 BC (only 8 runs)
As a runner reaches the maximum points you may wish to place a bet at the best odds.
My short list on December 18th 2008 was:
1. Butlers Cabin
2. Black Apalachi
3. Himalayan Trail
4. Chelsea Harbour
5. Parsons Legacy
6. Kilbeggan Blade
7. Iris de Balme
8. Endless Power
9. Garde Champetre
10. L Ami
11. Darkness
12. Southern Vic
13. Mattock Ranger
14. King Harold
Ten of the 14 are now in todays new short list – not bad was it (if I have got the winner that is!! – its a BIG if!!!)
Brain I took 40/1 on Garde Champetre with Ladbrookes yesterday – now watch it fall over the next two weeks! (still like Butlers Cabin as well- he just needs that all important 1/2/3rd over 25f or more from now to GN day whcih I am sure he can do)
Any more short lists out there?
#408
January 31st, 2009 14:21
My only concern with Butlers cabin at the moment is if it will get in. Already got a small bet on him so am just gonna sit back and see how it looks like developing for Butlers cabin.
Glad we were singing off the same sheet with Garde Champetre, was getting a bit worried a week ago when you mentioned Southern Vic instead. Like i said earlier im gonna wait til the 8th Feb for my final verdict on southern vic.
#409
January 31st, 2009 15:07
Whats going on with backing French breds?You may have got the price but you haven’t got the winner!!Just while im here im not sure about Kilbeggan blades chances as everytime its run in a grade 1 it has pulled up.I’ve got one thats not on anyones list but im waiting on the weights!!
#410
January 31st, 2009 15:17
Great work systemsman, nothing too suprising there.
I’m interested now to see wackys non french list
I’m sure he won’t be having any of Garde Champetre!
I am undecided on this chart topper,
had kinda ruled him out by comparing his career
to Spot the Difference who it has to be said just loved the cross country really and finished the GN twice.
Physically GC seems thin across the chest which puts me off for some reason, I’ve no doubt he should finish
and certainly has a big chance.
As usual with this race I know who will finish; traffic problems permitting, and who will fade away,
still awaiting divine intervention tho!!!
Hey wacky you must have a really short list, agree kilbeggan would have to run out of his little skin, can’t wait to see what your mystery horse is
#411
January 31st, 2009 15:36
wacky what took you so long.i knew it was only a matter of minutes before FRENCH BRED terminater was on the case. oohh la la
#412
January 31st, 2009 15:57
A French bred hasn’t won the race for a 100yrs so anyone that backs one isn’t playing with the STATS!!!As i’ve said when a french bred wins i will scrub that stat,but not UNTIL!!Good luck and i can’t wait to lay these horses at shorter prices on the day, so keep steaming in guys!!
#413
January 31st, 2009 16:56
just read that 8 out of the last 10 winners have been quoted odds of between 25-1 and 40-1 ante post at the beginning of february?
#414
January 31st, 2009 17:30
I am convinced that rambling minster has passed all the trends that you have set out systemsman, except for its ts is 127(only 1 short). Any reason why he,s not on your short list. Great work by the way.
#415
January 31st, 2009 18:27
It would be interesting to see how many french breds competing over the last few years have had such a good profile as Garde Champetre-i’d say not many-i think he’s a stand out contender and i’m glad systems man thinks so too. What about it Notelppa and Birchy?
#416
January 31st, 2009 18:32
Monkerhostin was fav for the race 2yrs ago and A P MCcoy has been on many a short price french bred.Keep clutching at those straws guys!!!! ha ha ha
#417
January 31st, 2009 19:13
Great analysis Systems. My only problem is that with a topweight at 11-10 and OR of at least 159 (probably 166), the chances are, the 135 – 144 range could potentially only cover horses from 7lb out the handicap up to 10-2. I’d say it’s dangerous to up the “score” of a horse due to the fact that it may be out of the handicap. I would suggest something like OR 135 – 148 = +1 plus an “A” for 140 – 146.
Pete. Totally agree with you, GC’s stats fit the trends really well. Not only that but his form is solid. I’d be happier, though if he were slightly less exposed. Does the fact that his mark’s been unaffected by a couple of good races at the backend of last year show the quality of what he’s beaten (Pass Me By, L’ami, hoo la baloo, Nadover, Drombeag)? I start with a shortlist of horses who fit the trends then pick who seem the most likely winners from there. I think we all agree, the winner is likely to fit the majority of the trends (otherwise we’re wasting our time)! That doesn’t mean that the winner is the one with the best trends profile, it means that if the trends continue, we’ve got the winner. Then the hard bit comes in placing your bets in such a preportion amongst those horses to make the most money. To do this, analyse the horses based on their form, weight, jumping, freshness, fitness, likelihood of being entered etc. etc. For me, based on Systemsmans great work, I’d say Hear the Echo is incredibly well in at the weights, Butler’s Cabin is the ideal type of horse and Black Apalachi looks a bit classy at the weight. Himalayan Trail and Garde Champetre look the best of the rest. Parson’s Legacy has missed his chance as has Simon, Kilbeggan blade won’t win neither will L’Ami, Darkness or Southern Vic. This cuts the list down to 8. Anyway, my top 3 currently are:
1: Hear the Echo
2: Butler’s Cabin
3: Black Apalachi
I’m well in on the top 2 already and will wait and see with Black Apalachi and may well have small savers on one or two others (looking like Himalayan Trail and Garde Champetre at the moment).
Another point I like to look at (not a trend) is the difference between the betfair price and bookies’ price on ante-post markets. For me, the bigger the difference, the greater the likelihood we won’t see the horse line up.
Sorry to waffle on, I’m off. Keep up the good work! That 25/1 – 40/1 business is interesting. Hope this is wrong, or I’m screwed!!!
#418
January 31st, 2009 19:13
alanham thank you – greta work. How did I miss Rambling Minster? who by the way has a perfect score of
9ABC*
He is OR 135 up to OR143 now (will he be able to handle any extra weight with a RPR of 147 best – its OK but I would prefer 149 +++ or at least one RPR 150 or more). However he must be placed in our short list. Did I miss any others?
Checked his price which is between 25/1 and 40/1 so that looks good for this time of year as well. I will be having some of that 40/1!
So we now have two perfect scores and 13 on the short list any of whom may still win (Wacky I never said its only Garde Champetre that could win by currently any of the 13 have a very good chance if Denman does not run).
A perfect score is what we need to find and so far there are just two with five or six very close who may qualify soon.
By the end of the Cheltenham Festival I am looking for a good short list of 5 if possible with 2/3 I prefer in that list. The 1,2 or 3rd in a Chase over 25f or more this season is a key “ice breaker” (I also have a few others)for the final list.
Wacky we will agree to disagee about the French Bred thing – there is no logic to it other than it not happening so far and as better French breds get entered so one day it will happen and I DONT clasify Butlers Cabin in this catagory unless we split French breds into two, those that have run in France at any time and those like BC that have not.
#419
January 31st, 2009 19:38
Great research everyone some really knowledgable good work just like last year. big thups up.
Best placed French bred horse since 2000:
2000: Mely Moss – 2nd @ 25/1
2001: Blowing Wind – 3rd @ 16/1
2002: Blowing Wind – 3rd @ 8/1
2003: Montifault – 5th @ 33/1
2004: Clan Royal – 2nd @ 10/1
2005: Royal Auclair – 2nd @ 40/1
2006: Clan Royal – 3nd @ 5/1
2007: Liberthine – 5th @ 40/1
2008: Nadover – 7th @ 125/1
Had blowing wind, clan royal and Royal Aucliar EW in all those years so french breds have been very profitable for me.
So far my portfolio reads:
Character Building 1pt E/W @ 33/1
Placed this in April 08 and now starting to think I’m probably looking at a good place chance with little hope of scooping the win, was expecting a big move for this horse but the money just hasn’t come which is very worrying. Still near perfect on the trends one good performance between now and april and it could be a different story.
Garde Champetre 2pts E/W @ 40/1
Yep I’m firmly on the bandwagon too. Placed on entry list day, have always like horse and as soon as I saw him on the entry list my money went down quick before the price tumbled. Stays longer than the mother-in-law, very sound jumper and as the price tag suggests has a nice touch of class to compete in this company. Given luck in running can’t see him out of the first 4 home. The Silver Birch parrallel is also very encouraging.
Southern Vic 2pts E/W @ 33/1
Not a horse I fancied at first but backed on the advice of a very knowledgable mate, also ran my trends through it and like its profile alot ticks most of teh boxes nicely. Irish trained always a bonus too.
Always have 4 or 5 running for me EW so will look to back 2 more after weights day.
Butlers is tempting but I still have reservations about a horse who is so eratic and tempermental.
Alanham has a good point I ran my trends on Rambling Minister and he seems a stand out pick so I’d like to hear anyones opinion on him? Particularly why systemsman doesn’t rate him?
On Hear the Echo I was always keen on this horse until I found out it has Strong Gale on the dam side, I’m not big on breeding personally but this is a huge minus as nothing with a strong gale influence has done anything in the national. Still it will probably be the one I fear the most on the day.
At the moment my watch list is will look to take two out of these to back:
Battlecry
Beat the Boys
Butlers Cabin
Companero
Conna Castle
Cornish Sett
Darkness
Fleet Street
Himalayan Trail
Ice Tea
Kilbeggan Blade
Notre Pere
Rambling Minster
If anyone has any solid information about why I should back or discard any of those it’d be most apprieciated, I’m sure quite a few from those will go elsewhere. I think I have to agree with Wacky on Kilbeggan not too hot on him, he does seem lacking the class at the top level, but on the other had he does seem to be a horse on the upgrade as he’s definitely improved on last year.
Lets hope we all do as well as last year as I reckon about 90% made a good profit last time.
Regards
Ian
#420
January 31st, 2009 19:41
OK that’s it I’m off to the bookies in the morning to lump into Rambling looks like only one more to find, great news
#421
January 31st, 2009 21:59
Brody – with regards to your watchlist I would comment as follows;
Battlecry – Only ever won 1 chase and needs minimum of 3
Beat the Boys – Not won a chase worth £17k
Companero – Not ran in enough chases, not won a class 1 race, not won a race worth £17k
Conna Castle – Not won over 3m and TS only 122
Fleet Street – Only ran in 8 chases and only 2 wins but time to get this right
Ice Tea – Not won a class 1 race or worth £17k
Notre Pere – Possibly will be too high in the weights
Hope this helps.
#422
January 31st, 2009 22:17
At this stage I feel:
Hear The Echo is the most likely winner
Character Building should be there or thereabouts
Also backed the following with small stakes on Betfair:
Conna Castle
Southern Vic
State of Play
Fleet Street
Once race week comes my ’system’ is very basic – I normally draw a line through:
Age under 8 or over 12
No run in previous 50 days
8th or worse in last run
Carrying more than 11 stone 5 lb
Fewer than 3 runs in current season
French Bred
This normally leaves 6 to 10 runners for form analysis, which is manageable
Excellent website by the way – wish I’d found it last year I might have backed COD – ruled it out from short list due to blinkers – doh!
#423
January 31st, 2009 22:42
Hi systemsman,Im not knocking any of your shortlist my friend,im just trying to put another spin on things as its no good just going with your great work if i see a hole in a horses form.I have a shortlist which are Black Apalachi,Darkness,King Harald,Parsons Legacy,Preists Leap And Rambling Minster.With a few that with a good run or 2 may fit the stats and they are Southern Vic,Character Building and my dark horse Cane Brake.Could anyone let me know why this horse hasn’t been mentioned by anyone yet?Maybe im barking up the wrong tree!!Wouldn’t be the 1st time
#424
January 31st, 2009 22:53
Cane Brake has a good trends record but its OR of 155 will mean it will carry more than 11st. So going by the trends how will Cane Brake win?
#425
January 31st, 2009 23:11
Its down to run on the 8th feb and has no chance of winning against Exotic dancer,albertas run and the listener to name a few so its rating may come down!!Maybe i’ve got it wrong?
#426
January 31st, 2009 23:24
Anyway thats another day out the way and only 10 days to go before the weights come out.BRING IT ON!!!
#427
February 1st, 2009 00:26
I shall do a little more work and try to tell you my own short list of six from the 13 based on the trends I have given by Tuesday.
#428
February 1st, 2009 09:09
Hi Guys went away for a days point to pointing and cant believe all the activity i missed yesterday .. another fantastic piece of work systems man …. can i ask simlar to pablos comments how state of play fits in to the trends.?.. he must surely be in there as well. i count hes got 9bc and the only fly in his ointment is his or of 150 . im with wacky at the mo in that the backing of a french bred in the past has almost been tantamount to heresy in this particular field and im still not convinced its about to be broken this year . however garde is an interesting character and i will go away and check him out….dont want u guys sitting in the bahamas whilst im licking my ice cream cone on the front at filey telling everybody who’ll listen that french breds dont win nationals….
#429
February 1st, 2009 12:16
Thank you for some superb postings.
I am new to the site and will be looking to share my thoughts with you all over the coming weeks in the countdown to the Grand National. This is a race that I have had considerable success with in the past, and this has also been the case with the Cheltenham Festival, another arena where the trend have a strong influence.
Would anybody be interested in starting a thread on the Festival, and the leading races there.
#430
February 1st, 2009 12:32
Birchys Revised List after taking further stock ….
1. Hear the Echo – Needs to place in a 25f chase v soon
2. Black Apalachi – Must be thereabouts – 11lb rise may stop it winning but looks good for 1st4
3. Garde Champetre – assuming his Gallic influence doesnt influence anything must be top4 material
4. Southern Vic – being brought quietly along a la papillon style – must be watched
5. Himalayan Trail – needs to place in a 25f chase v soon
6. State of Play – classy beast – if phil smith drops him two pounds i think hes a 9abc* – does he have the necessary character for a fight like this though?
7 Other interesting ones worth watching
War of Attrition – Classy horse who might just take to this and even with big weight could go well .. royal auclair , suny bay , whats up boys – if they can do it so can he..keep fighting his cause sporty girl
Darkness – entered for the Haydock Gold cup – if he bounces back at Haydock he comes into the reckoning.
Butlers Cabin – I fear for him – i think its going to be a real struggle for him to get in off 135 now … will keep a watching brief but if he gets in cracking weight
Beginning to get more exciting now lads and lasses and things should firm up even more once we have the weights out and the haydock gold cup and eider are out of the way .. some great comments and analysis going on ..great stuff
#431
February 1st, 2009 12:34
SILVER BIRCH re:State Of Play – I excluded anything over OR 148 – you have to set a limit somehwere and this is higher than recent winners – much higher)or the list gets too long.
If Denman runs (can you hear me laughing!) then we would ahve to look at few on higher OR’s.
#432
February 1st, 2009 12:46
“Bring on the weights” – we fear nothing!
Like Siver birch says “the weights out and the haydock gold cup and eider” we will really sort the men from the boys.
So much depends on Butlers Cabin getting in on OR 135 and if he gets 9.13 (carries 10.00) or 10.00 (and I think he will by the way)then he really must have a great chance and will go off 1st or 2nd FAV. I would like to see him placed in a Chase (1/2 or 3rd) afer the weights are out.
Re: French breds. Brody has shown that in the lsat eight years there have been six years when a French bred was 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the GN – now I call that a HIGH % and a very good trend. So everyone its only a matter of time before a french bred wins the GN (I was on Clan Royal in 2006 who came close). The facts speak for themselves Wacky – IT WILL HAPPEN SOON!
#433
February 1st, 2009 14:21
Hi Guys ‘Can’t Buy Time’ shortening across the board.
Not touted much on here.
Any thoughts?
#434
February 1st, 2009 15:15
Just reading the superb post on here.
I will be adding my views over the next few weeks as the Grand National has always been a very succesful race for me. Trends also play a big part in certain races at the Cheltenham Festival, so it would be interesting to have a few posts in that respect during the next few weeks.
#435
February 1st, 2009 16:52
Well I’am back to the research for my short list which i will try to post on Tuesday, so i will reread every entry on here and from last year – so much really good advise – but easy to miss (563 last year and over 432 this year, should just about finish reading by GN day!!) or forget.
I have to say one of the best posts for me was from Brody showing that French Breds can win the GN and as French Bred has never been outside the top 7 to finish since the year 2000! (and if they have been that clsoe so often its only a matter of time – this could be the year. I did say the same think last year but was proved wrong but we still got the winner!!) and in six of these years they have been in the top 3 to finish – completly exploded the myth that French Breds cant win the GN – well done Brody. Butlers Cabins hopes live on!!!
#436
February 1st, 2009 19:24
Hi folks,
Slightly behind most of you but have completed my analysis, which is based on Denman not running, top weight having current OR 159 and OR 135 getting in.
Criteria for selection are 1) Age 8-12, 2) OR 135-148, 3) TS min 128, 4) RPR min 144, 5) Won over 24f, 6) Placed over 27f, 7) Prize money £17k min,
Min 8 chases, 9) Min 3 chase wins, 10) Won C1 / C2 chase, 11) Max 1 fall excl Nat fences, 12) Min 2 prep races, 13) Not novice.
So the shortlist in descending OR order is:
Mon Mome, Black Apalachi, Parsons Legacy, Simon, Garde Champetre, Rambling Minster, Himalayan Trail, Butlers Cabin.
Most of these have been reviewed in earlier posts, with the exception of Mon Mome. Interested to hear peoples thoughts on this one…
#437
February 1st, 2009 19:33
I posted here earlier that french breds had run well in the National and that perhaps none of them had got to aintree with the right profile. I would also like to add that recently we’ve had french bred Iris De Balme winning the 4 mile Scottish National, not sure if he was the first, but no french bred has won the National for a century. Personally I find it just as unusual that people dismiss out of hand horses who haven’t won a chase at 3 miles when we’ve had two winners in the past forty years and countless placed horses, a winner and four placed in the past eight years, who haven’t won at or over 3 miles – better record than french breds.
You need to cover lots of scenarios!
At the moment mostly following 1990- 2008 trends profiles. Reasoning is that fences were changed radically after 1989 race results since have been markedly different from results before, the main aspect being that no horse had carried above 11-1 or 12lbs more than bottom weight. 15 out of the last 18 winners had form in the hennessey, welsh,scots/ irish/ national or in a races over GN fences. Seagram, Royal Athlete and Lord Gyllene didn’t and they all won at least three chases at 3 miles or further and won over 28f or further.
Not ante post betting for me on Black Apalachi, it’s needs it soft/heavy just as it was in Becher and will be punished by handicapper,see earlier becher winners post, not a stopping weight in itself but probably too much for BA. I think somebody said that Garde Champetre was aimed at Cheltenham?
Looking at 11st’ish being 150′ish this year? Key shortlist at moment; Parsons Legacy, Hear The Echo, Cornish Sett, Rambling Minster. Thats quite short!
With so many on the comeback trail I’m thinking that this could be the story this year, many ifs, buts, keeping an eye on Hot Weld, Silver Birch (quoted as 148OR?), Trabolgan,Comply Or Die, State Of Play, Character Building,Southern Vic, Endless Power. Think L’Ami could be first home french breds. His victory today in Ireland gives him some very good trends!
#438
February 1st, 2009 20:49
Hi Showlad,I think that Can’t buy time has as much chance of winning as french breds do of winning the national and the twins of winning the Eurovision!!!Happy days
#439
February 1st, 2009 20:55
Hope you’re right on Garde Champetre; as i’ve mentioned before, I backed at 110 on Betfair in JULY 08!!
#440
February 1st, 2009 21:12
Hi Crisp – i reckon thats a really strong trend uve got there…
15 out of the last 18 winners had form in the hennessey, welsh,scots/ irish/ national or in a races over GN fences. Seagram, Royal Athlete and Lord Gyllene didn’t
Did u know that Seagram and Royal Athelete both ran in a Henessy and Lord Gyleen had run in in a midlands national
So if you tweak ur trends to :
18 out of the last 18 winners had either run in a hennessey,or form in a welsh,scots/ irish/ / midland national or in a race over GN fences.
Then take systems man list of 12 and apply crisps trends
it leave u with these 6 babys I think
2. Butlers Cabin 9 ABC
2. Black Apalachi 9 BC*
2. Parsons Legacy 9 BC*
2. King Harold 9 ABC
3. Hear The Echo 9 BC
5. Himalayan Trail 8 AB (only 8 runs)
#441
February 1st, 2009 22:56
Nice list Silver Birch and wont be far of my own short list I think.
Intersting 5 from the 6 (HTE was not in there)were in my first short list of 11 posted on Dec 18th based on pre Chritmas GN winning trends – I’am getting a very positive feel about all this now but still need to confirm my own short list about Tuesday (and after i have got some more money on)
Loved these to snipps.
Gammers “Placed over 27f (+ the other trends mentioned)
and
SILVER BIRCH “18 out of the last 18 winners had either run in a hennessey,or form in a welsh,scots/ irish/ / midland national or in a race over GN fences.”
Now thats what I call very useful information That I for one will use for my short list – a 18 from 18 trend just cant be ignored can it?
#442
February 1st, 2009 23:08
Place over 27f is 18/20 trend, but exercise some caution as Monty’s Pass and Red Marauder were recent exceptions.
#443
February 1st, 2009 23:44
Not 18 or 20 years I’m afraid but here are results of some form analysis of last 10 winners (the Irish era – 6 Irish winners, many with hurdle preps – 2nd, 3rd and 4th last year too)
Apart from Papillon, the last 10 GN winners produced a performance in public at or near their very best RPR within the previous 12 months of their Aintree success (and all had attained at least a 144 RPR)
Although Papillon hadn’t shown much in the previous 12 months he was punted from 33/1 to 10/1 in the 48 hours leading up to the race – a clue in itself (Southern Vic yet to show much either – same trainer – lightning twice etc?)
Bobbyjo: 1989 GN winner RPR 156; April 1988 Irish National winner 153
Papillon: 1990 GN winner 156; no decent form in 12 months prior to race (164 when 2nd to Bobbyjo in 88 Irish National)
Red Marauder: 1991 GN winner 145; January 2001 Ladbroke Chase 2nd 145 (best was Nov 98 Ascot Gold Cup 152)
Bindaree: 1992 GN winner 148; December 2001 Tommy Whittle Chase 3rd 144 (also achieved 144 3 times before)
Monty’s Pass: 1993 GN winner 162; September 1992 Kerry National winner 148
Amberleigh House: 1994 GN winner 154; November 2003 Becher Chase 2nd 154
Hedgehunter: 1995 GN winner 166; February 2005 Bobbyjo Chase winner 150 (best Jan 2004 Thyestes Chase winner 156)
Numbersixvalverde: 1996 GN winner 154; January 2006 Pierse Chase 4th 146
Silver Birch: 150: 2007 GN winner 150; March 2007 Sporting Index Cross Country Chase 2nd 150
Comply Or Die: 2008 GN winner 158; February 2008 Eider Chase winner 155 (also achieved 155 twice before in Hennessy and Royal & SunAlliance Chase)
Interestingly, the last 4 winners produced one of (if not their best) career performance in the 3 months before the race – with 3 of them putting up this performance after the weights had been announced – so, from a form perspective at least, patience might well be a virtue
Perhaps one or all of the Eider, Racing Post Chase and Haydock Gold Cup could be very informative
#444
February 1st, 2009 23:50
Sorry… years should be correct on this one
Not 18 or 20 years I’m afraid but here are results of some form analysis of last 10 winners (the Irish era – 6 Irish winners, many with hurdle preps)
Apart from Papillon, all produced a performance in public at or near their very best RPR within the previous 12 months of their Aintree success (and all had attained at least a 144 RPR)
Although Papillon hadn’t shown much in the previous 12 months he was punted from 33/1 to 10/1 in the 48 hours leading up to the race – a clue in itself (Southern Vic yet to show much either – same trainer – lightning twice etc?)
Bobbyjo: 1999 GN winner RPR 156; April 1998 Irish National winner 153
Papillon: 2000 GN winner 156; no decent form in 12 months prior to race (164 when 2nd to Bobbyjo in 98 Irish National)
Red Marauder: 2001 GN winner 145; January 2001 Ladbroke Chase 2nd 145 (best was Nov 98 Ascot Gold Cup 152)
Bindaree: 2002 GN winner 148; December 2001 Tommy Whittle Chase 3rd 144 (also achieved 144 3 times before)
Monty’s Pass: 2003 GN winner 162; September 2002 Kerry National winner 148
Amberleigh House: 2004 GN winner 154; November 2003 Becher Chase 2nd 154
Hedgehunter: 2005 GN winner 166; February 2005 Bobbyjo Chase winner 150 (best Jan 2004 Thyestes Chase winner 156)
Numbersixvalverde: 2006 GN winner 154; January 2006 Pierse Chase 4th 146
Silver Birch: 150: 2007 GN winner 150; March 2007 Sporting Index Cross Country Chase 2nd 150
Comply Or Die: 2008 GN winner 158; February 2008 Eider Chase winner 155 (also achieved 155 twice before in Hennessy and Royal & SunAlliance Chase)
Interestingly, the last 4 winners produced one of (if not their best) career performance in the 3 months before the race – with 3 of them putting up this performance after the weights had been announced – so, from a form perspective at least, patience is a virtue
So one or all of the Eider, Racing Post Chase and Haydock Gold Cup could be very informative
#445
February 2nd, 2009 10:11
Pablo, good observation. And 14 of the last 17 winners(didn’t have Mr Frisk info) had won with a higher OR than their OR at the time of the their last chase win. The three that didn’t, Bindaree, Papillon and Royal Athlete, all had an OR rating of between 4-6 below their all time best. Definitely something there…
Silver, had noted runs of Seagram in Hen etc, I was trying to build ‘criteria’ profile of winners but good point all the same.
On the weight front at least one horse in the top six of the weights on weights day did run in the last eleven nationals. This would give us a top OR of at least 161 though I’m guessing that the handicapper might round this down to at least 160 as he has been compressing the weights in recent years.
#446
February 2nd, 2009 13:00
correction to last posting; 14 of the last 17 winners had the same or higher OR than their last chase win- as Comply Or Die’s was the same 139 which was 9 lower than his highest 148.
#447
February 2nd, 2009 13:32
FOLLOW THE MONEY – AN ALTERNATIVE TO TRENDS UPDATE
Latest news this morning is money on three lead runners on Betfair (they can ofcourse go out again but the general trend is down, down, down!)
Butlers Cabin 14
Hear The Echo 15
Black Apalachi 35/2
And
Southern Vic 43
On money alone at this stage (and it can change again) the winner is probably in this short list of 4. The bookies are gettng better each year at finding the GN winner early. If you want a bet on the fisrt three take the best price on offer in the next three days or they will be even lower after the weighst come out. On a no racing day I off to get my bet on!
#448
February 2nd, 2009 13:34
A word of warning to anyone considering an ante-post bet on Rambling Minster, I’ve read on another forum people saying he won’t go for the national as connections aren’t at all keen on the idea of him running in the national. I’ve no idea of the accuracy of this information but its enough of a doubt for me to keep a watching brief on his price for now and only get involved if I hear some solid news about the trainers intentions or if there is a big gamble on him and the price shortens up significantly. Luckily was going to head down to the bookies this lunchtime so might have dodged a bullet there, don’t want another Parsons Legacy debacle I really don’t like giving