Grand National 2009: Ante Post
Posted on December 16th, 2008 in Grand National 2009
*******UPDATED********
PLEASE POST ANTE POST TIPS/RESEARCH/COMMENTS ON THIS THREAD AND WIN A PRIZE!
I would like all the ante post comments on this thread – to encourage you I’ve got a little prize – the best ante post comment added to this thread by midnight 31st December will win a signed copy of Mick Fitzgerald’s Book Better than Sex
Please could you add your ante post comments/research/tips to this thread and not the Hennessy thread but you can copy YOUR posts from the Hennessy thread if you wish.
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This post has 833 comments
#1
December 16th, 2008 11:43
Cheers Mr Admin
How about a Welsh National post as well, given that it is arguably the best form guide for the Grand National itself.
#2
December 16th, 2008 14:30
Hi Daniel,
Yes, will get a Welsh National thread going in the next couple of days.
In the meantime have a look at our main page on the Welsh National and its relevance with regard to the big race itself:
http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/welsh-national-form.php
#3
December 16th, 2008 17:20
In todays Racing Post it was stated that from now on the top weight in the Grand National will be lowered by 2lbs (I cant remember if its 11.12 or 11.10 max).
I think this means that its even more likely that the winner will be currently OR 135 to OR 144 (and possibly only curretly OR 142 max – I could be very wrong about this ofcourse).
Will post the report when I can get it from the RP web site.
#4
December 16th, 2008 18:11
interesting stuff sytems man – that could be of importance – although i wish theyd stop tinkering about with this great race ….so in the past the top weight has has an or of 155 and wt of 11-12 – - which means historically the 11stone marker would have been about 143 – if the top weight is now 11-10 that would mean even better news for us 136-144 boys as there is an even greater likelihood that our fancies at the higher ceiling of 144 will in all likelihood carrying less than the 11 stone – although it all depends on who the topweight will be – do we think top weight will have or of 155 ? cos i guess thats what we are making all our assumptions on…
#5
December 16th, 2008 18:40
Quite right SILVER BIRCH. Everything depends on the topweight. If Halcon Genelardais runs off an OR of 164, Hear the Echo for example might well be running off 10-9 and C.O.D 10-12! If Comply or Miko are topweight off 152, it’ll all go up by 12 lb. Having said that, you can be sure the weights will not exactly reflect ORs at the time as horses with form in the race will be penalised.
So the question is, will this reduction to 11-10 be enough to entice a classy enough horse to throw the OR stat out the window? Probably not.
#6
December 17th, 2008 10:10
Has been between 155-158 in the past 5-6 years I think
#7
December 17th, 2008 11:28
Thanks Daniel – .. I rekon one horse to keep an eye on at a ridiculous price is trabolgan … yes hes been absent for a long time but hes been left on a mark of 151 – i believe he runs on sat . if he were to need that first run im sure the handicapper would knock off a further few pounds.. if perchance the top weight or this year happened to be 158 then we could have a previous hennessy winner lurking on the 11stone marker come april if the top weight is now 11-10..might not pan out like that and he has very fragile legs but one to keep a close eye on…
#8
December 17th, 2008 11:31
If you get on Betfair there are a fair few decent horses at ridiculous prices. Ok you’re relying on a few if buts and maybes to actually get them there on the day, but when you can get 300/1 and upwards, some are worth it.
Case in point is My Will. I noticed he met the trends (excluding OR) a while ago, so backed at 330/1 knowing that he was coming back this season having been off the track for 20 months or something. Now trading at 50/1!! Ok I doubt he’ll win, but if I have £10 at 330/1, I can afford to lay £30 at 50/1 and still be sitting pretty!
#9
December 17th, 2008 11:34
yip daniel . good point – ill go and have a nibble for a few pounds on trabolgan and sit back and c what unfolds.
#10
December 17th, 2008 12:09
Fascinating stuff. I think things may be a bit clearer before the new year with the Welsh National, King George and Lexus Chase all providing clues and also a better idea as to who will carry topweight (and importantly with what OR). Good showings from Cloudy Lane or Snowy Morning could impact. I’m going to stick my neck out and say Snowy Morning will be topweight with an OR of 160 to 162. I’ll also say that this puts Hear the Echo in with a great shout carrying no more than 11-0. Get on at 25s and watch the price tumble.
#11
December 17th, 2008 15:51
I’m sure many of you are already on the case, but there is a very useful tool on the BHA website where you can filter for all GB and IRE horses currently in training based on their current OR.
As we are all seemingly in agreement over the range we expect the winner to come from this can provide a good starting point for further anlaysis.
There are currently 138 horses with a chase OR between 136 and 147. I’ll be doing some further analysis to see which meet the other key trends at a later date.
#12
December 17th, 2008 16:02
Me again –
Quick correction to the above; the listing covers all horses trained in the UK, but NOT those trained in Ireland which is obviously a significant avenue we would want to include.
And on that note a contender for consideration – Mattock Ranger (trained by Noel Meade) and currently trading at 419/1 on Betfair.
This horse meets most of Systemsman’s early trends (needs one more chase win) and is off an OR of 137 currently. A decent performance in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas could turn this one into a very interesting candidate.
#13
December 17th, 2008 17:53
Interesting stuff about the handicap-as I mentioned early if perhaps Halcon Genelardais,say,or something similar to his rating runs (look at the weights for the Welsh National)then Miko De Beauchene, for example( those french breds again!)should be in on llst as would be Mr.Pointment. I think his massive weight of 11-11 in the National last year done him and looking at his first and second in the Becher, his only finishes in the top two since getting beat by Denman at Newbury, I think shows he’s an Aintree specialist and not wouldn’t be without a chance, and two more chase runs needed on 11st or thereabouts.
Back to the French. Looking at the betting there could well be ten to fifteen French breds running.
#14
December 17th, 2008 19:25
Hi Crisp – will be v interesting to c who ultimately gets top weight . re your halcon example above – u might want to trad with caution a bit .. lets say halcon is entered on 164 and miko and mr pointment are on 152. over the past few years the handicapper has compressed the handicap – so he might for example let halcon run of a mark of 158 to give it more of a chance . therefore halcon would have 11-10 based on the revised 158 but miko and mr p would still have 152 and have to carry 11-4ish … not an exact science but u can bet ur bottiom dollar the handicapper reduces the ors of the very best horses to give them a chance . unfort the horses in the middle bracket tend to suffer because of this as they are not getting as much weight from the very best horses but still having to concede the same weight to the 136 -147 club…hope that makes some kind of sense.. it will start to get really interesting if say a snoopy loopy or exotic dancer turn up and they run off approx 160 ..then the 11stone marker could be as high as 150…! and all of a sudden a lot more horses are in the mix… for the time being though im sticking to the 136 – 145 range which has served us so well for the past few years ..my only deviation from this at the mo is my crazy trabolgan bet
#15
December 17th, 2008 20:05
I was wondering if the last 4/5 National winners have been in the Betfair betting in December ?
#16
December 17th, 2008 20:56
Have now completed my study of all possible runners (in Odds Checker.com) up to 200/1. Will try to post a full report tomorrow night (sorry you will just have to wait a little longer). There could ofcourse be a winner currently lurking at over 200/1 but I doubt it.
#17
December 17th, 2008 21:41
Not had a chance to fully analyse these yet; but horses that meet most of my key trends and are available at big prices include:
Mattock Ranger 419/1; King Harald 249/1; Kilbeggan Blade 139/1; Garde Champetre 119/1 and Louping D’Ainay 349/1
More on these to follow later…
#18
December 18th, 2008 12:46
Mattock Ranger needs another chase win and hasn’t placed in a C1 race yet.
King Harald I agree with and asked about him previously.
Grade Champetre ive backed myself, but im not sure he’ll line up on the day now. More likely he’ll go to the cross country at Punchestown and then at the Cheltenham festival.
Haven’t done my home work on the other two yet.
#19
December 18th, 2008 21:51
Grand National Ante-Post 2009
Can we find the 2009 winner – YES we can! Part 2.
Well I have now completed a review of all potential GN runners listed on Odds Checker.com up to 200/1 and a number of other horses suggested by contributers to this web site. In all I have looked at 74 possible runners (its still possible I have missed the odd one at a very big price so let me know).
Using the mid December winners profile trends as a guide what did we find (the GN winner had achieved these targets by mid December in winning year)?
The trends were:
1. OR 136 to 144 (10/11 trend)
2. RPR rating 144minimum (9/10, 10 from 10 by 15th Jan)
3. Won case value £17,000 or more (11/11)
4. 3 Chase wins (any type) or more (9/10, 10/10 by 19th Feb)
5. Age 8 to 12 (12/12)
6. Completed in 10 Chases (9/10, 10/10 by 15th Jan)
7. Won over 24f or more (11/11, 9/11 at 25f or more)
8. Won Class 1 or 2 Chase-any type (11/11)
9. TS rating minimum of 111 (12/12, TS 128 or more 7/11)
RESULTS
There are 34 possible runners with a OR of 136 to 146 (I extended it a little to cover one or two good runners we could miss)
Of these 34 runners there are 22 possible runners with a OR of 136 to 146 AND a RRR minimum rating of 144.
Of these possible 22 runners there are 14 who also have won a Chase worth 17K or more.
The 14 are (and the very possible Grand National Winner 2009) – listed by lowest odds first, highest last
1. Butlers Cabin
2. Black Apalachi
3. Himalayan Trail
4. Chelsea Harbour
5. Parsons Legacy
6. Kilbeggan Blade
7. Iris de Balme
8. Endless Power
9. Garde Champetre
10. L Ami
11. Darkness
12. Southern Vic
13. Mattock Ranger
14. King Harold
Now how many pass all nine trends (with TS set at the lower 111) and are the most likely winner of the Grand national 2009?
ELEVEN!
These are in my order of merit with Star rating:
1. Butlers Cabin OR 138 (joint top). RPR 150, TS 131 *****
1. Himalayan Trail OR (joint top). RPR 145, TS 140 *****
3. Black Apalachi OR 146. RPR 158, TS 138 **** (Beecher Chase winners winning GN in same year? But its time they did!)
4. Darkness OR 143. RPR 156, TS 133 *** (if he runs)
4. Garde Champetre OR 144. RPR 154, TS 143 *** (won Class 2 only but good TS rating of 143)
4. Parsons Legacy OR 146. RPR 153, TS 141 (is this the year?) ***
7. King Harold OR 136. RPR 145, TS 140 (keep an eye on this one! Good 140 TS rating) ***
8. Kilbeggan Blade OR 141. RPR 145, TS 124 (low) *** (progressive but can he carry the extra weight?)
9. Chelsea Harbour OR 138. RPR 152, TS 122 (low). (TS 122, 9th last year!) **
10. Southern Vic OR 143. PRP 159, TS 146 (good) ** (last win Oct ’06, only won at up to 24f)
11. L Ami OR 140. RPR 163, TS 165 (had his chance twice?) *
High Chimes and Over the Creek may also come into the picture at a later date.
Its possible I have made an odd mistake which I will put right in later posts. I may also have missed the odd big price selection at more than 200/1.
Now what do you think? Did I get the star rating right? Did I miss any?
Between us all we can find the winner and pay for a free family holiday this year – good luck everyone or is that good trends!
#20
December 18th, 2008 21:54
Himalayan Trail OR is 141
#21
December 18th, 2008 23:16
That is some fantastic work systemsman.Am i aloud to shorten your list?I have to knock out french breds so take out GARDE CHAMPETRE,L’AMI and BUTLERS CABIN.CHELSEA HARBOUR has to go as it got around last year and only horses that have fallen in the race before come back and win.(in recent years)Could you look into HOT WELD,HEAR THE ECHO,NEWBAY PROP and MATTOCK RANGER please SM.
#22
December 19th, 2008 08:19
Could someone give me an opinion on Lothian Falcon?
#23
December 19th, 2008 11:40
Lothian Falcon:
OR 135 (a bit low but still possible)
RPR 135 (too low – needs 144)
TS 116 (too low but possible)
Won 24k race Ok
Won C1 race Ok
Won 3 from 10 Cheases OK
Age 9 OkWon at 25f Ok
Main problem is the 135 RPR best rating so far – much too low. So on ratings so far he does not have the class/form (best RPR 135) or speed (best TS 116) to win – but this could change ofcourse.
#24
December 19th, 2008 14:29
thanks for your continued hard work,advice and research on our behalfs as i for one really look foward to your postings systemsman.i love the GN and have some luck but do not understand in depth as you and a few of the other lads and enjoy trying to follow you and learning as i did last year.can you give me your opion on a couple of horses.MR.POINTMENT who i thought ran a cracker last year but obviously got saddled with unwinable weight, but with less weight i feel has the makings and also CORNISH SETT who again ran very well and ran lacking a prep. run following a wind op.if fitter could he come into the reckoning.
#25
December 19th, 2008 15:41
My main 2 at this stage are Himalayan trail and high chimes. I got quoted 40/1 for high chimes by both Bet365 and ladbrokes. im sure this price will change after the welsh national. Im hoping High chimes finishes 2nd or 3rd in that race.
There some good french horses this year so is this the year the french will win????
Dont think i’ll be looking at that trend this year as im sure its only a matter of time before one wins especially how there a lot of french breds being put on the irish courses earlier.
#26
December 19th, 2008 15:52
Meant to add one of the frenc breds im looking at is Mon Mome.
How does this horse match up to mid december trends?
#27
December 19th, 2008 16:12
I dont think Mon Mome has quite got the class to win the big one. He’s a bit in and out as well and has a history of tailing off come the end of the season. I should know, i backed him ew last year!
Stats wise, well;
1. OR 148 (HIGH)
2. RPR rating 155 (good)
3. Has won a Chase worth more than £17,000
4. 5 Chase wins
5. Aged 8
6. 21 Chase runs (9 is the minimum, not 10 Systemsman! Minnehomma won with 9!)
7. Won over 24f or more
8. Won Class 1 race last time out
9. TS rating minimum of 150
So he’s rated well, but looks like his good win at Cheltenham last week may have pushed him too high in the weights.
#28
December 19th, 2008 19:06
Daniel “9 is the minimum, not 10 Systemsman! Minnehomma won with 9!”
Be fair Dan I was only giving trends for the last 10 to 12 years (which most people will use). Minnehoomma won in 1994 15 years ago with nine previous Chase runs as you say.
Looking back to 1994 (15 year trends)we can see that even 8 year olds have a very poor record.
Age of GN winner since 1994 (15 years.)
12 – 2/15
11 – 2/15
10 – 5/15
9 – 5/15
8 – 1/15
Like Silver Birch I’am also interested to know what others think about the possible GN top weight likely to run as this will have an impact on the chance of those on OR 145/146/147 (I still feel the OR 137 to 142 (current OR and up to 144 (on day) looks the place to find the winner. I resisted putting an ante-post bet on Black Apalachi today because of this (current OR 146)- what I right to hold back?
#29
December 20th, 2008 14:37
Dont worry, I wasnt knocking your work!
Personally though I like to go a bit further back; 10/10 trends will mean you come undone every now and then.
In fact, with the increasing trend of big races going to more unexposed horses over the past few years, I wont be ruling out any horse with 8 chase runs this year.
#30
December 20th, 2008 18:39
Hi Guys,Newbay Prop got its head in front at Navan today and i wander if anyone thinks it could have a chance next april?This horse has already won a £73,000 chase at LEOP and run some good races in defeat behind comply or die in the eider,Priests leap in the thyestes and hear the echo in yhe irish national.Its a well bred horse out of Roselier which is known for its long distance winners.It also has very few miles on the clock for a 10yr(next year)How does it stand up on ratings please Mr Systemsman?
#31
December 21st, 2008 20:44
What do you think of battlecry’s chances systems man only 1 chase win but 4 seconds and his OR is 145. I’ve noticed he’s drifted heavily on Betfair for the wesh nat so i don’t think he’ll be involved there!
#32
December 21st, 2008 21:12
Battlecry
OR 145 (possibly OK)
RPR 154 (Good)
TS 132 (Good)
Won 3k Chase (Far too low needs 17k)
One chase win (Far too low so far – needs 3)
Age 7 (too young needs to be 7 to 12)
Won Clss4 Chase (much too low – needs class1 or 2)
Won at 17f (much too short,needs 24f minimum or more)
Novice last sessio (poor tred)
So profile not looking too good is it Texas?
#33
December 22nd, 2008 12:10
Correction it should read
“Age 7 (too young, needs to be aged 8 to 12)”
#34
December 22nd, 2008 13:32
One other horse to consider may be gypsy george … loads of stamina , won 3 chases , one = 19k – his ts and rpr are way off the mark though – however if this horse was to run well at chepstow in the welsh nat – i.e in the first three .. hed be up to about 0R Of 138..i would assume his rpr would increase accordinly too , so its his TS thats the achilles heel . not advocating a bet on him yet but worth keeping an eye on on sat
#35
December 22nd, 2008 13:55
Technically, won’t every horses age go up on the new year, which would mean Battlecry would be 8 years old. However, as systemsman has pointed out, he doesn’t look too clever with all the stats factored in.
#36
December 22nd, 2008 14:43
Thats also my interpretation Jimmy Boy – as such all my analysis to date is on horses currently aged 7 – 11, on the basis that the age stats will be right for these come the 2009 National.
Having said that, I also agree with yourself and Systemsman that Battlecry looks a poor trends pick; especially given no 3m chase wins (he does have a 3m win over hurdles)
A further strong trend is for horses to have at least placed over 27f+ prior to the National – Battlecry has never competed over more than 25f.
Overall, a horse that could certainly improve to meet all key trends in the coming year, but probably not one for the 2009 National.
#37
December 22nd, 2008 15:18
If he has a good season we may be discussing him in a year’s time for the 2010 National if his career progresses
#38
December 22nd, 2008 17:37
28 left in the welsh national now after 2day …. potential aintree contenders still engaged for sat are joe lively,always waining,darkness ,mon mome, high chimes plus the classier topweights halcon gen and miko de beauch – character building has been scratched
#39
December 22nd, 2008 17:52
sorry probably should have put the above in the welsh national thread .. oops sorry admin….
#40
December 22nd, 2008 18:52
Re: Age
As far as I am aware its the date of birth of each horse that you use to determine age not an 1st Jan each year – or am I wrong? Its certainy appears to be what the Racing Post site uses to determine age of past GN winers and the age of any current runners in any race.
#41
December 23rd, 2008 00:29
Hi Systemsman –
In response to the age question I think the RP also takes 1 Jan as the point to increase each horses age, as is standard for NH racing.
I looked into this when the ‘date foaled’ information started becoming available.
For example, in the RP analysis of last years Grand National – Race was run on 5th Apr 2008, Cloudy Lane foaled 18/02/2000 treated as an 8 yo on the racecard, as would be the case under either system. Chelsea Harbour also shown on the racecard as an 8 yo, however not foaled until 04/05/2000 so technically would not reach 8th birthday in human terms until a month after the National.
As such for any analysis done before the end of 2008 we should consider horses shown as age 7-11, rather than 8-12. Obviously as only 2 of the last 20 renewals have been won by 8 yo’s this probably wont have done too much damage in terms of identifying the winner.
Another name for the hat – SIMON. Admittedly not the best track record in the National, but seems the right type, and has the trends firmly in his favour this year; only nagging doubt would be the weight an OR of 146 will equate to on the day – anything more than 11’1 would put me off.
#42
December 23rd, 2008 10:12
backing a horse who has fallen twice in previous Nationals will get you nothing but a nasty bank balance!!
That horse is just too small for the fences.
#43
December 23rd, 2008 12:28
Thanks Gammmers for the age clarification – will also not exclude some current 7 (and 7 to 11 range)year olds who will be classified 8 on Jan 1st.
Simon:
OR 146 (just changed from 148)- i had him on my short list in 2007.
RPR 159 (very good)
TS 151 (very good)
Won 57k chase
5 Chase wins from 20 runs (very good)
Age 9 (now) (OK)
Won C1 race.
But and its a big BUT as Daniel points out GN record ‘O7/F, 08/UR (he has not finished in a place which is not so bad). With a possible 11.01 give or take a pound or two not looking so good. If he had an OR of 138 I would be interested.
Any more opinions on the ante-post short list of say three aganst the field anyone?
Problem for me is that some possible good runners have no price available in main the Hight Street bookies yet (like High Chimes and King Harold).
#44
December 23rd, 2008 12:51
Agreed Systems.
Butler’s Cabin seems the stand-out for the time being (even if he is a french bred). I see he has a hurdles run lined up over xmas to protect the handicap mark; all roads lead to Aintree for that one, I would say.
Simon, Parsons Legacy and Black Apalachi all have a profile to rival Butlers, but will be carrying in the region of 11’1 as you say, which is a concern.
Of the ones outside the ‘perfect profile’ brigade, I like the looks of Mattock Ranger, King Harald, Kilbeggan Blade and Himalayan Trail. All have lower OR’s than the three above, but would want to see their names on the list of initial entries on Jan 29th before I part with any cash.
You did say 8 against the field, right….?!
#45
December 25th, 2008 21:06
I always keep an eye on prices on Odds Checker.com to see the price trends (ups and downs.
Butlers Cabin price history on Betfair.
Some miner ups and downs between these prices but the trend is down, down, down.
09.08.2008 23/1
01.12.2008 21/1
11.12.2008 17/1
25.12.2008 33/2
I think it may go off Joint Fav with Comply Or Die (who will have too much weight. Denman wont run).
20/1 still available with Corals – how much longer?
#46
December 26th, 2008 20:15
Price Update on Betfair: Some big movers.
Butlers Cabin now 31/2 (having been as low at 15/1, was 33/2 previously) on Betfair with Xmas money.
Black Apalachi down to 22/1 (from 23/1, previously, 25/1 on 10.12.2008).
Cloudy Lane now 25/1 (from 33/1 on 25.12.2008)
Old Benny 35/1 (from 69/1 on 22.12.2008)
An Accordion 35/1 (from 84/1 on 24.12.2008)
#47
December 27th, 2008 10:15
Has anyone heard anymore re Trabolgan . hes nowdown to 148 after his first run of the season ? this is my crazy bet for the national…it may never happen but if he runs again a couple of times he may be an interestin outsider … anybody an views on this one ?
#48
December 27th, 2008 16:23
hi all,just watched the welsh nat.did no good as i backed beat the boys,but on this string 19/12 i did ask systems man and the other more knowlidgeable chaps if CORNISH SETT could be involved in april as i have backed him at 100-1 with hills if you have time i would really be interested in your views even if bad news.
#49
December 27th, 2008 18:26
Cornish Sett has a definite chance now, Nicholls says GN is he aim, he is good though perhaps not perfect on Systems’ ratings, I think, and his Welsh Nat. 2nd puts him good with thirty six year old profile trends(top 5 hennessey, a top 2 finish in Welsh, Irish or Scots Nationals, top2 in race over GN fences, three 3mile wins with at least one at 28f or five 3mile wins). In the hands of the handicapper now. Does appear though as he would want it soft now although he won on good firm in his younger days and would need to break 32 year trend of previous year unplaced to next year winner.
#50
December 27th, 2008 18:43
SB; re:Trabolgan. I did read somemwhere that his jockey said he was sound during the race and only pulled him up due to lack of fitness.
#51
December 27th, 2008 20:37
Howdy folks . i would have to say after today u can safely draw a line under darkness , high chimes gypsy george and mon mome …. i have now reassessed my top6 .. they are now
1. Himalayan Trail
2. Butlers Cabin
3.Hear the Echo
4. Southern Vic
5. Black Apalachi
6. Over the Creek
#52
December 27th, 2008 23:38
Good list Silver Birch which I dont disagree with much. Will do some reassesment and come back with my ammended list in the next 7 days (I wont to study all the xmas races in detail and not rush things). The top two will not change however.
Joint 1st: Himalayan Trail (OR 139) and Butlers Cabin (OR 138).
It is clear they are both aimed at the 2009 GN
Note on Price: Butlers Cabin is now 16/1 with 8/17 bookies on Odds Checker.com.
Note of Butlers Cabin being French Bred: If Butlers was to win the 2009 GN (a big if at this stage) we would still be able to say “French Bred” do not win the GN if they have ever run one or more races in France! Butlers Cabin has never run in France.
#53
December 28th, 2008 22:09
Sorry guys but CORNISH SETT can’t win the national as it finished the race last year and only horses that have fallen can come back and win according to the stats.Sorry but i will be laying BUTLERS CABIN as well cause french breds don’t win even if they haven’t run in france.Has anyone looked at my shortlist so far?Get the feeling im being ignored!!But if you don’t want my help just say so?MERRY XMAS
#54
December 29th, 2008 10:02
Hi Wacky – good to have u back for 2009 … where is ur list .. i havent seen it.. have u posted it on this thread ?
#55
December 29th, 2008 13:09
Wacky is this your complete ante-post short list?:
HOT WELD,HEAR THE ECHO,NEWBAY PROP and MATTOCK RANGER.
If so (please let me know) i will have a look and give my opinion for whats its worth.
#56
December 29th, 2008 15:34
Hi Guys,I bought Jumpers to follow 2008-2009 and from that i’ve sorted a few out that could fit the stats next april.This isn’t my shortlist it is possibles as its a long road to Liverpool.HEAR THE ECHO,HOT WELD,MATTOCK RANGER,MISTER TOP NOTCH,NEWBAY PROP,PRIESTS LEAP and ROYAL COUNTY STAR are the ones i,ve unearthed so far.What do you think guys?
#57
December 30th, 2008 00:37
Hi All
Of the horses on Betfair for this years National, Dad previously had a BIG win on L’Aventure and a HUGE win on Iris De Balme @100/1 in the Scottish National ’08.
Thanks to all for all the great stats and carmaraderie last year -looking forward to this years. My family originally came from Cork and had horses at that time and after.
I had great fun going back and forward to my Dad, Souter, last year with all the latest tips, assessments and developments appearing on here, of which he eagerly awaited. He’d been ill on and off for a long time, and passed away this month. I shall miss him so much during these months leading up to the Big Day, so I suppose I will just have to annoy you lot…
He was a fan of Hot Weld and looked for him at Aintree last year. As for myself, I fancy Snowy Morning going 2 places better this year. Oh well – Merry Christmas and a Great ’09 to you all.
#58
December 30th, 2008 10:27
So Sorry to hear about your dad passing away showlad…our thoughts are with you and ur family and hopefully some of the banter and craic on this site will help you get through a very difficult time .im sure the spirit of your dad is still with us on this site and hopefully youll be cheering home the winner come april with your old dad cheering it on from the high heavens … good luck and best wishes for 2009…
#59
December 30th, 2008 12:07
Sincerest apologies to you Showlad.
It would be great, and incredibly fitting, if something like Hot Weld went on to the race and won!
#60
December 30th, 2008 15:00
Thanks for your kind words SILVER BIRCH and Jimmy Boy. Dad flled his boots with a great return on Comply or die at this year’s National thanks to you all n thi site.
He’ll definitely be with us all again in the coming months, as we get on this bloody mad but fantastically Merry Horse we call ‘Picking the National Winner’ lol. Go Hot Weld!
#61
December 30th, 2008 17:06
My Deepest sympathy Showlad.I share a great love of horse racing with my father and can only imagine what you are going thru at this festive time.Lets hope HOT WELD can get to L’pool and your dad’s spirit can lift it over every fence to victory.When we find the winner of the national and have collected our winnings i would like to make a donation to the charity of your choice.Sorry even if i don’t win i will do so.
#62
December 30th, 2008 20:11
Thanks a lot Wacky.
We took a donation for MacMillan Nurses at his funeral.
My Dad, Souter, was an amazing fun man. To give you an idea his funeral songs were ‘Wish me luck, as you wave me goodbye – Gracie Fields’ and ‘The Boys in the Backroom – Marlene Dietrich’, lol
He had an amazing life, full of love and laughs. Mind you if he starts whispering “Hot Weld” when I’m on this site, I’ll jump out of my seat!
#63
December 30th, 2008 23:50
I did tell a little white lie Showlad,as i do know what you are going thru as my father was diognosed with cancer in sept 2007.He was put on a trail and has responded very well so far.Its a horrible disease and i hope your dad didn’t suffer for to long?I hope we find the winner next year and can dedicate it to ‘the boys in the backroom’.If you can have a listen to NOTHING ELSE MATTERS by METALLICA.I will make that donation i PROMISE.
#64
December 31st, 2008 01:33
sorry for your loss Showlad, both my parents have been rather ill this past year and its been so draining, my mum after several ops got the all clear yesterday, luckily. Long periods of illness of loved ones are hard to endure and my thoughts go out to you. We’ll all be glad to see the back of 2008 thats for sure, one of my few highlights and escapisms was this blog, the opinions, characters, number crunchin and it was the best build up to my luckiest favouritest race!
I would also like to say your dads tip Hot Weld caught my eye in the past and I was awaiting some interest for him, but he’s gotta get back racing and show some form soon. Hope he gets there and runs well for your dad.
#65
December 31st, 2008 02:19
Thanks Wacky and KJ.
Well it’s now officially the last day of this year..
A Great Year for this site and let’s hope an even better one in ’09.
As we can see from these recent posts, this site is much more than stats and forecasts. We all share the love of horses and of a passion for the Greatest Horse Race in the World. But it’s also clear that whatever we are going through, good times or bad, this site is something we all enjoy spending time on and sharing with on.
It’s a welcome, friendly link for us all to this most fascinating of hobbies.
So a thanks goes out to Admin and all for making it possible.
#66
December 31st, 2008 12:31
I would like to take this oppertunity to wish everyone on this site HEALTH(most important)WEALTH and HAPPINESS for 2009.I hope your dad will HEAR THE ECHO Showlad when we shout home the national winner next year!!!Oh and before i go a big well done to HAYLEY TURNER for reaching 100 winners this year.Thanks admin for 2008 its been a blast.Cheers wacky
#67
December 31st, 2008 12:49
I echo the sentiments. May everyone have a great, and prosperous, 2009.
It will only be a month or so when horses are declared, and then weights start getting published, and we can all get down to some healthy debate and discussion. Let us hope we’ll find the winner in 2009 as we did this year with our friend Comply Or Die.
#68
December 31st, 2008 22:17
Happy New Year to everyone.
I want us all to win this year and spend the money on our family holidays!(start dreaming it can be true!)
New Year Eve money review from Odds Checker.ocm
BLUE = Odds shortening
RED = Ods drifting (but it can change again!)
Now where is the serious money going on GN 2009?
“Follow the money”
Butlers Cabin 16/1 (back down to its almost lowest point again [has been 15/1 once] BLUE
Hear The Echo 20/1 (suck around this mark for some time) BLUE
Snowy Morning 22/1 (stuck around this mark, with ups and doens for some time) BLUE [too much weight!]
Himalayan Trail 33/1 (general trend is clearly dowm with ups and downs)BLUE
My Will 37/1 (trend is very much down) BLUE – msut research this one!
Chelsea Harbour 54/1 (stuck around tis mark for some time, has as lowe as 47/1) BLUE
Garde Champetre 79/1 (has been as low as 59/1 so lost of ups and downs) good value. BLUE
Not a bad short list is it? (looks like they read this site!)
REDS – Drifters (but plenty of time for change again so be careful)
Comply or Die – too much weight!
Black Apalachi – surprising
Notre Pere
Madison Du Berlais
Nozic
Simon
Old Benny
An Acordion
Air Force One
Abbeybraney
Royal County Star
#69
January 1st, 2009 20:19
Hi guys,
The winner of the Mick Fitzgerald autobiography for the best post on this thread by 31st December is detailed in this new thread:
http://blog.grand-national-guide.co.uk/uncategorized/grand-national-ante-post-prizewinner/
Thanks to all who posted and watch out for further competitions.
#70
January 2nd, 2009 11:05
After his new year’s day victory I think Rambling Minster has put himself right in the picture. Quite solid on ten year trends and perfect profile in comparison to 36 year trends as he has won four chases at 3m or more -three is required- with the added bonus that he has won at four miles. His performance in Tommy Whittle chase last season is interesting, gave 9lbs to Cloudy Lane and finished ten lengths behind him and gave 7lbs to Comply Or Die and finished six and a half lengths behind him. Only negative at the moment is that he is not quoted with many bookmakers!
#71
January 2nd, 2009 11:11
Anyone heard any news on Denmnan? I ask because of the drop in his Betfair price. People now want to back at 22 and the best you can get is 17.5! This is in addition to the drop in Hear the Echo’s price. If Denman were to run, this would put Hear the Echo and even C.O.D bang in with a chance at the weight. I suppose the Hear the Echo move could be because of Motre Pere’s impressive Welsh National win franking HtE’s Irish National form.
PS Admin. I posted recently that the OR of the topweight could be 160, leaving Hear the Echo to carry about 10-13 putting him in to the reckoning and suggesting 25/1 was a great price that wouldn’t be around long. This was removed, is there any reason why? As I’d like to contribute and think this is a valid point. Also, 25/1 didn’t last long (now generally 16/1 and shortening!
#72
January 2nd, 2009 11:18
Good post Notelppa – as systems man and i think myself commented before xmas – the top or rating could be absolutely crucial this year …evbodys been working on the assumption its gonna be about 155-156. but what happens if it is as high as 158 -160 … ?then horses like hear the echo (149) come into play – ive got him on my shortlist and will be backing him over the coming month as you cant afford to ignore an irish national winner potentially running in the national with 10-13 or – 11-0 . like yourself there are a few people keeping a close eye on this fella over the next few weeks…
#73
January 2nd, 2009 11:22
Crikey – ive just gone onto oddschecker and hear the echo has been cut into 14s and 16s in some places for the national …! do u think the bookies are scanning this site
– devastated – hes plenty short enough now. anybody any ideas why the plunge on this horse this morning – is it because denman might be national bound thus raising the top or ?
#74
January 2nd, 2009 12:47
Could this be a clue? Taken from the RP website, an interview with Paul Nicholls on New Years Day included the comment below:
Asked whether Denman – who has not raced since undergoing treatment for an irregular heartbeat – might be given an entry in the Grand National, Nicholls added: “We’ll have to talk about it, but if Paul and Harry want to enter him, I’ll enter him.”
Nicholls and Findlay have also expressed enthusiasm for making an audacious assault on France’s premier jumps race, the Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris, at Auteuil in May.
#75
January 2nd, 2009 13:29
Hi All. HAPPY NEW YEAR! Well pointed out Notelppa, Just got Echo @20s on VC – thanks. Ha, next sec they’ve just taken him to 16s lol!
Wacky, Silver Birch, Jimmy Boy, KJ etc feel free to drop me a line anytime – gmpromos@blueyonder.co.uk Be good to touch base.
Systemsman well done on your award
I suppose now it’s that game of weighing up the great early odds, against the chance of being stung by a subsequent no Show..
#76
January 2nd, 2009 14:41
hi everyone found this blog close to last year’s grand national, really enjoyed everyone’s comments,in answer to silver birch i think hear the echo’s price changes are due to andrew barr’s comments in his mark your card column in the racing post weekender,he advised an eachway interest due to promising hurdle run recently.I have a small interest on hear the echo @ 33/1 so iam hoping for a nice weight.
#77
January 2nd, 2009 15:12
I think Denman’s owners want the horse to become immortal and what better way to do it? The prize money’s so good (£1/2m to the winner – which is nearly as much as he’s won in his career to date) that they may not be able to resist it. If he does want to win the race, they’ll probably want to give him 2 cracks at it meaning he’d have to run this year.
I reckon Denman will be entered to at least see what sort of mark the handicapper throws him in at and I think with the reduction in the topweight to 11-10, the organisers are specifically trying to get him to run and I reckon he’ll be leniently treated (off, say 176). Out of interest, does anybody know if the bottom is changing with the reduction in the topweight? If it’s 10-0 and Denman runs off 176 (current OR 182), then anything with an OR of 151 or less would be out of the handicap, leaving the shortlist very, very short if the trends are to hold up this year. I certainly wouldn’t want to be on anything with an OR of <140.
#78
January 2nd, 2009 21:09
Notelppa “then anything with an OR of 151 or less would be out of the handicap, leaving the shortlist very, very short if the trends are to hold up this year. I certainly wouldn’t want to be on anything with an OR of <140.”
I will make one confident prediction about the GN 2009 – Denman will not run in it!! I can see him being listed just as an insurance policy (this often happens every year with a few good horses) but there are far better (and less dangerous) races for a horse with such talent (and worth so much). If you owned this horse would you want to risk his chance for another tilt at the Gold Cup in 2010 whatever happens in 2009 (I think he will win again for whats ist worth and a 2010 tilt at the GN might just be a possability).
I am going to take a risk and place all my early bets on the fact that Denamn is not the top weight on the day (even if he is when the weights are published and I can see that happening).
Now Hear the Echo is OR 149 and I expect will get well over 11 stone and cannot win. Howeevr if he was to run with. If he get under 11 stone on the day he in with a cance – one to watch for the moment – -thats my view anyway. His profile looks good but that OR 149 – every year I am tempted to look at runners in the 145-150 range but every year they LOSE!! (OR144 or under is a 11/11 trend). I guess it will happen sometime but I’ll take the risk for now.
#79
January 3rd, 2009 11:08
I absolutely agree Systemsman, on your analysis IF Denman doesn’t run. However, I think we have to admit it’s a possibility now. Every bookie has introduced him into the betting, all as favourite and many at single figures. As you say, “follow the money”. Even if it’s unlikely, I think we need to look at all the angles.
#80
January 3rd, 2009 11:18
I presume people have seen the Racing Post?
“BRILLIANT Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Denman will be entered in this season’s John Smith’s Grand National and trainer Paul Nicholls is “coming round to the idea of running him” in the Aintree spectacular.
The nine-year-old is due to reappear in the Aon Chase at Newbury next month before defending his crown at Cheltenham. At time of writing he was a16-1 chance for the National.”
If Paul Nicholls is “coming round” by which I presume he means “resigned to” the fact, I think we have to take it seriously. OR 136 – 144 is out of the window (even if for this year and poss next only), I’d say.
#81
January 3rd, 2009 16:50
Well ,well,well this old denman for the grand national is gathering pace. I admire u systems man for holding ure nerve with the 136 -144 approach but im going to start a second shorlist based on denman running as it completley undoes everything we have been working towards in the past few months
WITHOUT DENMAN
1. Himalayan Trail
2. Butlers Cabin
3.Hear the Echo
4. Southern Vic
5. Black Apalachi
6. Over the Creek
WITH DENMAN
A GUESS OF AN OR OF 172
1. Hear the Echo 10st -1
2. Air Force One 10st -13
3.State of Play – 10st 4
4. Snowy Morning – 10st -12
5 . Trabolgan – 10st
6. Black Apalachi – 9st 12
#82
January 3rd, 2009 19:23
What a farce the race would turn into if Denman runs!
A horse like that needs to stick to the Gold Cup and leave The National as the people’s race. It would throw the handicap into disarray. You’d think Harry Findley has enough money to splash around without needing the extra prize money.
#83
January 3rd, 2009 19:28
Whether or not Denman runs there are still trends to look for. The last thirty six winners have placed; top 5 hennessey, top2 in Irish, Welsh, Scots (or even USA)National, top 2 in race over
#84
January 3rd, 2009 19:33
Reaction from the handicapper…
This answers my earlier question, 10-0 is bottom weight. One fact I’m not keen on as an Echo fan is that the jockey put up 7lb overweight when winning the Irish National with 10-0. Still, if they needed to find an experienced jockey to do the weight, there’d be a queue.
BHA head of handicapping Phil Smith has admitted he faces “a challenge” in deciding what rating Denman should run off if the Gold Cup winner is allowed to take his chance in the John Smith’s Grand National.
If Denman runs off his official mark of 182, or indeed anything close to that, the vast majority of horses in the contest would be likely to carry just 10st but would also be required to race from out of the handicap.
Smith said: “It will be an interesting puzzle to try and decide what to do with Denman. On the one hand, I’ve got to try and give him what I think is a fair chance of winning, but I also don’t want to disadvantage the rest of the field. It will be a balancing act and once I see the entries it will be easier to make the decisions.
“It’s a challenge, but it will be less of a problem for me than the 20-odd jockeys who are going to have to do 10st.”
Also, what do people now think of the chances of a repeat performance from Comply or Die? 20/1 looks good for the best stayer. I think he still has the beating of Snowy Morning and all the other finishers from last year’s race.
#85
January 3rd, 2009 19:36
Sorry, unfinished post …. top2 in race over GN fences or three chase wins at 3miles. A dual National winner? If Denman does run Comply/Silver Birch in with a great shout. Regarding Hear The Echo. He has 3 career falls and discounting previous falls at Aintree the last 12 winners have only had one career fall or less.
#86
January 3rd, 2009 22:22
I think the bookies are laughing all the way to the bank robbing people for bets on Denman (it wont happen – just look at how many times this has been suggested in the last few years with top horses that might win a Gold Cup). I’am happy to lose the GN 2009 on my prediction (but ofcourse I will consider an insurance policy or two later if needed).
Should Denman run (can you hear me laughing in the background) then yes oher runners are to be considered such as:
Hear the Echo
Comply Or Die
Snowy Morning
etc (both Silver Birch’s lists were very good). Intersting both Hear The Echo and Black Apalachi are on both so may be worth a SMALL ante-post insurance policy soon)
But well done Crisp 73 for pointing out that Denman or no Denman there are certain trends that have to be loked for and I will take a look at your excellent list again you gave me much to think about with regard to my own short list.
#87
January 4th, 2009 13:32
After further assessment and the impracticalities of having 12 horses to try and cover on 2 lists , i have created an amalgamated list of the best 6 from the 2 with and without denman lists
revised 6 on my short list after the denman added dimension
1. Himalayan Trail
2. Black Appalachi
3. Hear the Echo
4. State of Play
5. Butlers Cabin
6. Snowy Morning
#88
January 4th, 2009 22:11
gosh! ok so if Denman is entered
then the weights are allocated
then he is withdrawn at a latter stage, which I still think is the most likely outcome..
most other horses will be off such a low weight the stats are out the window!!!
It’ll be a fun twist and a fair chance for previous winners for a change.
#89
January 5th, 2009 00:29
I’ve been looking at all these early discussions here along with the bookies… I think so too!!!
and who cares, still going to give my honest opinion
who knows looks like we could all be wrong this year haa! haa!
I do like to watch for future winners and no hopers, basically jumping, travelling, staying power
and my current feelings of these (horses I have seen)is
I like Himalayan Trail but what has it beaten? has he enough experience? seems to like springtime!
Black Appalachi impressed last time, has form.
Saw one recent race with Chelsea Harbour in who jumped horrifically, taking out other horses, for this reason I would avoid him and may I suggest jockeys do too!
If it snows again, snowy could do well hee, hee
Joe Lively won’t stay, (to recap neither will Simon)
and Joe should go to cheltenham.
Comply or Die is a worry, not because of the weight he’ll carry but because of his reappearance races, either he wants only aintree fun or he has completely lost ‘compliance’ interest in racing.
My Will is an interesting entry as he is a classy jumper/stayer. systemsman any analysis on his statistical measuring up yet?
Cornish Sett could be my dark horse as he is like a new horse! and stays all day.
I’ve heard at various points certain horses are out injured too including Iris de Balme that someone mentioned recently and Silver Birch and KJC.etc. can we somehow clarify this list please.
#90
January 5th, 2009 00:57
on the weird front, recent ‘lucky’ trend has been for horses with two words starting with same letter, so if that continues the winner/runner up could be
Mon Mome or An Accordian
#91
January 5th, 2009 13:41
good posting kj and i totally agree with your comments,but the other horse i have issues with is the well fancied hear the echo.surely his jumping qualities ar’nt upto gn.i also agree about cornish sett and as i have already stated on this thread i have backed him last may at 100′s e/w.my dark horse is mr. pointment also backed may at 50′s e/w.if he has more realistic winnable weight he will go very close i am sure.
#92
January 5th, 2009 16:34
Good list (accounting for Denman) from Silver Birch, except I can’t see Himalayan Trail winning if he’s a stone wrong with many other contenders (OR 139: 10-0 bottom weight likely to be roughly 152). Obviously, the same would go for Butler’s Cabin which is why I prefer Snowy Morning, but still don’t think he’ll make up the difference on Comply or Die.
Systemsman, I agree and am slightly worried about Hear the Echo’s jumping but his 2 falls were at the end of races on soft / heavy ground and were as a 6yo.
The way I play the ante-post market is simply to get the value then lay off to take the profit, hence the value in Hear the Echo at 25s. The value as I see it now is with Comply and Mr Pointment. I think, once the weights are out, these 2 will be popular. They might not win, but profit is profit.
My shortlists, for the record are:
With Denman:
1: Hear the Echo
2: Comply or Die
3: Black Apalachi
4: Hot Weld
5: Snowy Morning
6: Halcon Genelardais
Without Denman:
1: Butler’s Cabin
2: Himalayan Trail
3: Black Apalachi
4: My Will
5: Hear the Echo
I can only make a case for these 5.
For a banker, I’d say Comply or Die to place…
Oh well, wait and see now I guess.
#93
January 5th, 2009 17:26
So is no one actually going for Denman if he is indeed to run?
#94
January 5th, 2009 18:21
Not Denman for me. I’d expect a run like Master Oats (the last GC winner to run in the GN). Everyone’ll say, if he stands up, he’ll win but there’ll be a few with too much stamina when the weight starts to tell. This is 9 1/2 furlongs further than he’s been before. He’ll try to stay out of trouble and just not get home. For me, I hope he’s entered, cross through the hot favourite, and there’ll be value to be had elsewhere. Dependant on the ground, he might nick a place at best.
#95
January 5th, 2009 18:30
Sorry, scratch My Will from my “without Denman” list (mistake), I’d consider him if Denman does run though!
#96
January 5th, 2009 18:32
notelppa do you not rate parsons legacys chances IF he runsas he is on my shortlist and would value your comments.
#97
January 5th, 2009 23:01
I backed Parson’s Legacy last year which would have been his chance from a mark of 130 and as a 10yo. He would certainly hope that Denman runs and that could make the connections’ mind up to run him this year. Certainly through the formline of one of my list (Hot Weld) he would receive a 1 stone swing in the weights for their Scottish GN meeting but the fact that only 6 firms are pricing him up and he’s 100 on betfair makes me assume he’ll be steering clear again. If he was going to run, I think it would have been last year.
#98
January 7th, 2009 14:38
I also agree with crisps analysis of Hear the Echos’ chances, 3 career falls is 2 more than any other winners profile so I will discount him.
#99
January 7th, 2009 14:55
Mr.Pointment in my opinion is like Bewleys Berry, loves Aintree, so can jump, but just can’t stay the distance.
Good point about Parsons and Denman chances Notelppa, both woulda coulda been good horses to have in the national line up tho.
#100
January 7th, 2009 15:47
Can’t argue with Crisp’s analysis. No more than 1 fall (exc National). As I see it, that leaves Comply as my nr 1 choice (Butler’s Cabin if Denman doesn’t run). I still feel I want Hear the Echo on my side though but trends are trends and I hadn’t seen that one!
#101
January 7th, 2009 16:32
Rough Quest had 5 F/UR, which, for our purposes, are one and the same thing. Lord Gylenne also had 3 F/UR.
#102
January 7th, 2009 16:54
In fact, having just double checked, Rough Quest in fact had 5 career falls before he won his National. No Unseated Rider.
#103
January 7th, 2009 17:24
Maybe the stat holds up for the last 10 years. I’d be interested to know if anyone has done the research.
#104
January 7th, 2009 17:56
Just to clarify, I havent thrown Hear The Echo out of the equation completely- a bit premature to discard second fav! I do think though that three career falls for an 8yr old is plenty and I am also questioning his overall profile as trend breakers are usually very classy and have been thrown in at the weights.I was actually thinking about to post on significant trend breakers over the last twenty years.
The only two 8yr olds to win since 1990 were Party Politics, who had won three chases at 3miles or more and was runner up in Hennessey and Welsh Nat and Bindaree who had only one 3miles chase win but had jumped around in fourth in John Hughes/Topham, had a top 5 Hennessey finish and finished third in Welsh Nat. Party Politics raced in the National only a few points more than his highest ever OR while Bindaree’s OR in ’02 was less than his best ever. Hear The Echo’s Irish Nat win was impressive and has ran in 13 chases, is it enough? If Hear The Echo’s OR is considerably more this year than last year it would be another negative.
On the career falls front Royal Athlete had 3, Rough Quest had 5 (thought Lord Gyllene had never fallen?)
Like you Daniel I do think looking beyond 10/10 trends is prudent. Put it like this; why did Royal Athlete and Rough Quest break strongish trends? Royal Athlete was a former Gold Cup third place running off 10st 6lb! Rough Quest was a Gold Cup runner up running off 10st 7lb! perhaps both horses although prone to errors were able to run within themselves. Just a thought. If Denman doesnt run and Echo is on a ‘winnable’ weight will have to be looked at.
Back to trend breakers. Only winner with less than four prep runs and less than ten chases in last twenty years? Miinnehoma. A royal sun alliance winner, five chases wins at 3miles or further, 2nd in rehearsal chase and third in Welsh Nat at Chepstow. Won National with 10st 8lbs.
Incidentally third fav Snowy Morning has now ran in ten chases without a win- a negative for the past twenty years!
#105
January 7th, 2009 18:09
I think looking past ten years trends is essential if you want to give yourself the best chance of finding the winner. If you want to find the most LIKELY winner, sure do 10 year trends. But if, like me, you want to leave yourself a list of all the POSSIBLE winners and sort it out from there yourself, longer ones are more essential.
Apologies on Lord Gyllene, I was doing that from memory. You are right, it was Royal Athlete with 3. To answer your question re: the last 10 winners Jimmy;
2008 Comply or Die ZERO
2007 Silver Birch ONE
2006 Numbersixvalverde ZERO
2005 Hedgehunter ONE
2004 Amberleigh House ONE
2003 Montys Pass ONE
2002 Bindaree TWO
2001 Red Marauder TWO
2000 Papillon ZERO
1999 BobbyJo ONE
Re: Hear The Echo 13 chase runs, last winners have had 14,13,10,11 respectively, so 13 is by no means a bad thing. I’ve noticed a lot of big jumps races going to more unexposed horses, so it could be that we soon have a National winner with 9 or maybe 8 chase runs to his name. Before this year, the last two Welsh National winners had only had FOUR chase runs. Before them the lowest in the previous 15 years was 7. Records are there to be broken as they say, so you need to INTERPRET statistics, otherwise they are useless. Case in point being Comply or Die wearing blinkers last year. I know a few people who were put off by that.
Don’t forget, 76% of statistics are useless and that 87% of people know that
By the way, no 6,7 or 13 year old has even PLACED since 1971. Lay them all this year for a place; I will be!
#106
January 7th, 2009 18:32
No, Hear The Echo’s 13 chases isn’t a bad thing at all. Paradoxically the 8yr olds who have won the National in modern times have been very experienced in terms of chases run. Likewise older horses who are lightly raced have a good recent record.
#107
January 8th, 2009 12:59
Hi Daniel,
To clarify the stat on falls that Crisp and I are both using, it relates to all chase runs excluding those over National Fences.
One of Red Marauders 2 falls was in a previous GN, bringing him down to 1 fall. Bindaree only had 1 fall at Kempton prior to his GN win (unless you have different info to me?). This is a 10/10 stat.
I have the 20 year stats at home and will post later – I recall there are a few exceptions in the earlier years as noted above, but I favour the more recent data as the standard of the GN improves.
#108
January 8th, 2009 13:48
Yeah granted there is that, but the more selective you are the more you run the risk of getting it wrong. I would rather look at the facts as they are and decide whether Hear the Echo’s jumping is good enough, and not rule him out on the basis of a number.
No doubt Rough Quest and Royal Athelete were ruled out by many th year they won as well.
and Bindaree had not previously run in the National before his win, so he had 2 falls outside of the GN
#109
January 8th, 2009 15:08
Yep, appreciate the point. I use this stat to differentiate between runners that make my final shortlist.
Trends are there to be broken after all!
#110
January 8th, 2009 23:54
We’ve probably done the falls statistic to death over the past few days, but for the sake of completeness the 20 year record for falls (unseateds) excl runs over GN fences is as follows;
0(0), 0(0), 1(1), 1(0), NR, 0(0), 3(0), 4(0), 0(0), 1(1), 0(1), 0(0), 1(0), 0(2), 1(0), 1(0), 0(0), 0(0), 1(0), 1(0).
So in terms of purely falls, allowing 1 as a maximum, a 10/10 trend becomes an 18/20 trend. If we include URs a 9/10 becomes 15/20 unless you bump up the maximum allowed to 2 in which case its 10/10 vs 18/20 again.
I promise to leave this stat alone and move on with my life…
#111
January 9th, 2009 00:20
On a slightly more useful note; to put a historical context around the weight / OR conundrum being discussed early on in this thread.
Over the last 20 years, only one horse (Hedgehunter) has won whilst having an OR rating of less than 14lbs below top weight – Hedgehunter carried 11lbs less in 2005.
In 18 of the last 20 years the winning horse carried between 14 – 24 lbs less than the top weight.
So if Denman runs, which personally I feel won’t happen, and is given a revised mark of 176, then our winner theoretically falls into the range 152 – 162. Co-incidentally if Denman carried 11’10 off a rating of 176 anything below 152 would be out of the handicap in any case.
Nothing groundbreaking here as this is consistent with previous theories of ideal OR being 136-142 where top weight is in the mid 150′s, but framing in relationship to top weight means this can be flexed each year depending on the class of the entries.
Doesn’t help identify a winner until we know who top weight on the day will be, which from Paul Nicholls’ quotes today won’t be until after the Gold Cup.
#112
January 9th, 2009 09:19
So if the weights are published at the start of february like this Denman 11-10 halcon genelardais 10-6 5 others betweeen 10-5 and 10-1
and the rest at 10-0.
Then Denman pulls out How will the weights be raised ?
#113
January 9th, 2009 11:59
Here’s a quote that most of you will have soon on ATR, but I’ll paste it anyway:
We’ve entered Denman for the Grand National but that is as far as it has got at this stage,” Nicholls told Teletext.
“If he has a hard race in the Gold Cup like last year that would make it improbable but if something went wrong or he fell at the first, we’d kick ourselves if he wasn’t entered.
“It will be some time before a final decision is made so any speculation otherwise before then is exactly that.”
I’m sure most would be in agreement that the Gold Cup is going to be a big, tough race. So, if Nicholls is true to his word then I would doubt Denman’s participation
#114
January 9th, 2009 12:11
Interesting point to note: Hear the Echo’s current OR according to the RP is now 145 (from 149). So, even if Snowy Morning were to head the weights at his current OR of 157, Hear the Echo would get in at 10-12. This should bring him bang in to contention if Denman were to pull out. The only doubt now are the 3 falls which don’t concern me too much. Re falls stats, I can’t see why you would discount falls over the very obstacles the horses will face in the big race and even if you do, many horses fall / UR due to tiredness so perhaps you should include falls in the Becher? Either way, Hear the Echo has improved no end since his novice runs (when the falls occured), is seemingly unexposed and gave Notre Pere (OR 158) a 17L beating at level weights in the Irish National and would now be 13lb better off. Add to this the traditional Irish prep he’s had. For me, there’s now a 3 horse shortlist:
1: Hear the Echo
2: Butler’s Cabin
3: Himalayan Trail
#115
January 9th, 2009 12:43
Im completely with you Notelppa . The only bummer at the moment is that most of the value for these 3 has gone and im loath to take 14s on hear the echo 3 mths before the grand nat…However a 14/1 winner is better than a 85/1 loser and these three horses continue to crop up on most peoples lists and must be backed. I notice all 3 of these horses had hurdle preps over xmas and himlayan trail actually ran twice in the space of 48 hours.. !
#116
January 9th, 2009 12:59
Thankfully, I already have Hear the Echo at 25s. However, I’ve just taken Himalayan Trail at 33s and have Butler’s Cabin at 20s so will probably stop there. I think the 16s available on Hear the Echo is worth taking and it’s available with the big 3 so you should be able to get a decent amount on. If it’s 12/1 in 3 weeks time, you’ll be pleased with 16s. This is especially relevant as it will become more likely with time that Denman won’t run. This would have been a negative before the drop in OR but now all it would do is take out the clear favourite. I can’t see anything other than Hear the Echo or Comply or Die (housewive’s favourite) going off fav.
#117
January 9th, 2009 13:12
Permission to be smug for getting 66/1 on Himalayan Trail last year
Personally, I am doing no more backing until after Cheltenham; Yes Hear the Echo might come down a few points, but he might not run, might put in a stinker before the GN, might get injured etc etc. Far more negatives than positives I think.
PLUS that 16/1 isnt going to move far. Aside from Cloudy Lane, the rest were all 10/1 and bigger before the race last year, and Comply or Die moved from 14/1 to 7/1 fave in the space of 48 hours before the race. Thats the time when the money goes on and the prices come in.
Even if he does come down a few points, just have a few more quid!! Better than potentially throwing away your whole stake by betting now. As I say, thats my way of looking at it, but, as they say, horses for courses!
#118
January 9th, 2009 13:46
I agree. I’m sitting tight now. C.O.D. last year was still available at 25s in early March so some value will still be about. The only things that will affect prices are the weights and significant performances. Given that (as far as I know) none of the favourites have an run upcoming, no need to get involved. I just think the Hear the Echo may shorten when people realise he will have a winnable weight in the absence of Denman. Obviously, this may not happen until the weights are announced but I think his price is only going one way and if I weren’t already on, I’d be tempted.
#119
January 9th, 2009 14:47
Would anyone else agree that 10-12 is a fair bit of weight for an 8 year old to carry around the 4m4f with regards to Hear The Echo?
#120
January 9th, 2009 14:51
Going back to the reliability of the stats, by my reckoning, if you had been working on 10/10 trends you would NOT have got the following winners for the following reasons;
2000 – Papillon – Carrying 10_12.
10/10 previous highest:- 10_08 Miinnehoma-1994
2001 – Red Marauder – RPR of 145.
Previous lowest:- 150 Miinnehoma – 1994
2005 – Hedgehunter – Carrying 11_01.
Previous highest:- Papillon 10_12
AND
Last run 48 days.
Previous longest:- Red Marauder 42 days
Thats only looking at age, RPR, last run and weight. I remember Systemsman saying once he hadn’t got Silver Birch or Numbersixvalverde. Perhaps he could let us know what stats ruled them out in their winning years.
#121
January 9th, 2009 15:06
Re: Hear the Echo Jimmy
Historically, sure it might look high for an 8 yo. Corbiere in 83 was the last to carry more than 10_07 to victory as an 8 year old.
BUT he did carry 11_04 remember! and there havent exactly been many 8yo winners since then either (just the two)
Also, Royal Auclair finished 2nd as an 8yo with an incredible 11_10 on his back in 2005! Slim Pickings (8yo) was 2 lengths 3rd last year with 10_08. Whats Up Boys (8yo) was 1 3/4l runner up in 2002 with 11_06.
I think its perhaps more important to look at Hear the Echo’s form to gauge if weight is an issue for him; He won the Irish National with 10-0, but Beef or Salmon, carrying 12_00, which skewed things a bit. He was getting 4lb from Royal County Star, and 7lb from Notre Pere that day as well, if that helps. That was his last run over fences.
Perhaps more worrying for me would be Hear the Echo’s age. Yes 8yo’s CAN win, but in the last 5 runnings only 4 have placed and since 1992 when the first 3 home were all 8yo’s, only 9 have placed in 14 races. As mentioned above, only 2 8yo winners in the 25 runnings since Corbiere in 1983.
#122
January 9th, 2009 15:36
Corbiere was a different kettle of fish to Hear The Echo.
Good work there Daniel
#123
January 9th, 2009 15:39
Daniel. Just to let you know, Hear the Echo had 10-0 in the Irish National but carried 10-7 (7lb overweight) so was running at level weights with Notre Pere.
#124
January 9th, 2009 15:52
An interesting look at ‘OR at time of winning National in relation to highest OR in chases’ If anybody can have a look at it, possibly back to 1990, not sure if these figures are 100%, –
Miinnehoma -4 (four less than highest ever OR),Royal Athlete -8,
Rough Quest +1, Lord Gyllene +1, Earth Summit -10, Bobbyjo +13, Papillon -6, Red Marauder -3, Bindaree -4, Montys Pass +2,
Amberleigh House +3, Hedgehunter +3, Numbersixvalverde +3,
Silver Birch -4, Comply Or Die -9.
Don’t know if there are any trends to pull from this as such though interesting in terms of the profile of the winners. Did notice that all four of the 20/1 or or more winners in list were at least 3 less than highest ever OR- Royal, Red, Bindaree, Silver Birch. Earth and COD, who had the ‘best’ lowest OR were blinkered favourites!
#125
January 9th, 2009 16:08
Nice work Notelppa, I had missed that. 7lb overweight in such a big race!! Lucky for the jockey that he won hey!!
In that case, I would say 10_12 would not automatically rule him out.
And dont worry Jimmy, I wasn’t comparing Hear The Echo to Corbiere! That said Corbiere won his National off the back of a Welsh National win and it was only really after his GN win that he showed what a good horse he was. Irish National is a good a trial as the Welsh version I would say, so who knows, this could be the race that launches Hear The Echo.
Just a though Re: Comply Or Die. Does anybody have any info on past winners lining up in later years BUT without the customary 13lb plus hike in the weight they had to carry?
I know generally, in recent years, winners of the GN rarely win another chase, let alone another National. This would lead me to think it perhaps less to do with the rise in the weights and perhaps as much, if not more, to do with the amount of effort winning a GN takes out of a horse.
#126
January 9th, 2009 16:10
good list notelppa,what weight are you thinking himalayan trail will run off as i read somewhere that the jockey said he was very tied at utt.g/n which is 4 mile 2 fur. and he ran at 10.0 stone. on hear the echo i still fear his jumping credentials early in his career or not. butlers cabin no problems and my no1 at present and backed him at 25′s.my list for what it is worth
1 BUTLERS CABIN
2 PARSONS LEGACY
3 BLACK APALACHI
#127
January 9th, 2009 22:06
Could somebody tell me what happens to the weights if Denman(top weight) pulls out after the weights are announced .
#128
January 9th, 2009 22:10
has anyone any opininions on kilbeggan blades chances in this race. i happen to know this is the route hes headiing this year
#129
January 9th, 2009 22:46
Im not certain but in the year that Hedgehunter won the weights were put up 3lbs and that is why it won carrying 11st1lb.If Denman stays in and runs it will mean that Official Ratings and not weight will help us find the winner.Whatever the gap is between i.e denman 11st 10lbs and the next in the weights COD 11st 3lbs the weights would go up 7lbs.Hope i’ve made this clear?
#130
January 10th, 2009 09:58
In 2001, See More Business was entered and withdrawn- not sure at what stage- weights rose 9lbs, Beau went to top weight of 11st 10lbs. Interestingly, for COD backers – if Denman runs or there is a higher OR at top of weights, Papillon was actually allocated 10st 10lbs, 2lbs less than his winning weight the year before.
#131
January 10th, 2009 14:50
Mandie:
I’d say Himalayan trail should run off something like 10-6. I’m not surprised he was tired when winning by 22l at 4m 1.5f! He’ll be tired at the end of the National too!
Re Hear the Echo’s jumping. His falls came, as you say, 2 years ago. They were near the end of hard run races where he made the running. His improvement to win the Irish National was in part down to the fact that he didn’t make the running. This can also account, in part, for him making fewer mistakes.
Parsons Legacy: Seemingly unlikely to run. Connections obviously don’t fancy his chances in this race.
Black Apalachi: Good pick on trends and could be a safer option than Butler’s Cabin who fell last year and Hear the Echo whose jumping isn’t yet proven. For me though, I’ll stick to my shortlist of:
1: Hear the Echo
2: Butler’s Cabin
3: Himalayan Trail
4: Black Apalachi
The winner’s likely to come from the top 2 but should they not get round, one of the other 2 are likely to benefit.
#132
January 10th, 2009 19:55
CAN ANYBODY GIVE ME ANY THOUGHTS ON RAMBLING MINSTER. SEEMS TO FIT INTO THE TRENDS SET OUT BY SYSTEMSMAN. HAVE JUST TAKEN 300s ON BETFAIR. MONEY WASTED?
#133
January 10th, 2009 22:16
HAPPY NEW YEAR SYSTAMATIC,WACKO,BIRHY,CRISPY,NOTEPAD,GAMMO AND THE REST OF THE CREW.
DOWN TO BUSINESS,LETS NOW AGREE ON WE ALL KNOW DENMAN WILL NOT RUN.
MORE CHANCE OF ME BEING THE POPE BY NEXT SAT.MAYBE 2010,BUT THE OWNER LIKES THE COVERAGE AND LIMELIGHT.
OF THE FRONT RUNNERS MENTIONED ON HERE RECENTLY AND ON MOST PEOPLES LISTS BY THE SOUNDS OF IT
HEAR THE ECHO – WILL HAVE TOO MUCH WEIGHT AND BAD JUMPING CREDENTIALS NO MATTER HOW NOTEPAD TRIES TO CONVINCE HIMSELF EVEN MORE THAN US.
HIMALAYAN TRAIL – THE TANK WILL BE EMPTY BEFORE THE HILL IF HE COMPLETES,EASY WIN OR NOT AT UTTOXETER 2/1’2 EXTRA FURLONGS WITH MORE WEIGHT AND NOT TO MENTION THE STAMINA SAPPING FENCES.
BLACK APALACHI – LIKE BUT THINK AGAIN WILL HAVE JUST A LITTLE TOO MUCH WEIGHT AND FIND ONE OR 2 WITH ABIT MORE SPEED AT THE END,BUT MIGHT MAKE TOP SIX.
MY THOUGHTS ARE 1 BUTLERS CABIN BACKED 2 DAYS AFTER LAST YEARS
RACE.
2 HOT WELD HAD NIBBLE AT 33′S BUT WAITING
TO SEE IF RUNNING FOR SURE AND
IS FIT.
3 STAR DE MOHAISON AGAIN WAITING TO SEE IF RUNNING
RAN A CRACKER AT CHELT.OVER
3 MILE 1 1/2 WITH 11’12 ON HIS
BACK.
TRENDS ARE THE KEY TO THIS RACE WITHOUT A DOUBT BUT MAY I JUST MAKE A COUPLE OF POINTS. WACKO SAYS NO TO BUTLERS CABIN BECAUSE FRENCH BRED.IF MY WIFE HAD A PREMATURE BIRTH WITH OUR DAUGHTER WHILST HOLIDAYING IN SPAIN,YET WE RETURNED HOME AND RAISED HER IN ENGLAND DOES THAT MAKE HER SPANISH,TECHNICALLY YES BUT DO YOU GET MY POINT.
THE TREND I FIND HARD TO UNDERSTAND IS THAT IF A HORSE COMPLETED THE PREVIOUS YEARS RACE AS OPPOSED TO PULLING UP OR FALLING WHY DOES THAT MAKE IT LESS LIKELY TO WIN NEXT TIME AROUND ?.SURELY A HORSE IS MORE LIKELY TO REMEMBER A HEAVY NASTY FALL WHEN AT THE TAPE THAN ONE THAT WILL THINK BLOODY HELL NOT THAT HARD LONG RACE AGAIN.
TRENDS ARE TRENDS AND I USE THEM MYSELF BUT FEEL SOMETIMES WE SHOULD BE ABIT MORE FLEXIBLE AND LOOK AT THE BIGGER PICTURE CERTAINLY ON THE LESS RIGID TRENDS.
GOOD LUCK ALL.
#134
January 12th, 2009 14:09
Rambling Minster meets the ‘trends’ as far as im can see BUT he doesnt really look classy enough to make me want to back him.
THAT SAID, if he makes the line up (with his current mark that shouldn’t be a problem, so it depends on whether he is declared) he will not go off at 300/1 (maybe 50s??) so you could lay him off and turn it into a nice little win win bet.
#135
January 12th, 2009 15:48
good in depth discussion about Hear the Echo,
I now see why this horse could be in the reckoning, but surely the odds are pretty short.
His Irish National has to be respected with the 7lb overweight for sure, coupled with the different riding strategy seems they may have had a bit of a breakthrough!
Can we break down a few others chances in depth?
DC- I fancied a bit of Kilbeggan Blade last year watched his efforts subsequently, was unsure about him,remember seeing a poor round of jumping last year and when I saw him win recently, didn’t win with anything in hand I’d say, but that may just be his style of racing, seems to be a ‘plugger’ has low head carriage and looks quite small!?!
anyone know if he is short and who the other shorties are this year?
some of us came to the conclusion Cloudy Lane was too small for this race last year and I think it is a valid consideration
#136
January 12th, 2009 17:24
I don’t recall having seen much of Kilbeggan Blade, but looking at his form on paper as it were, I would say whilst he meets the stats, I haven’t seen anything of him yet that would impress me enough to make me think he could win a National. His RPR is only 145, he pulled up off 10_00 in the Scottish National last year having made plenty of mistakes and in his only other effort in a C1 race he pulled up as well.
I am not sure where you can find information on the size of horses, but would be delighted if somebody could enlighten me. I can look back through previous winners then.
#137
January 12th, 2009 20:36
the chances of simon were considered to be poor…if this small horse were only carrying 10 stone or 10 1 or 10 2 then surely it will get around.it had got to valentines twice in previous gn runnings on second circuit.size of fence in relation to horse was probably the negative rather than tiredness…with a stone less on his back..ie with denman running he has to be in with a good chance albeit probably 6-8 pounds out of handicap. the horse failed to finish on several occasions so i d put his rating around 150 on previous finishing form .. i d appreciate any views on this
#138
January 12th, 2009 21:51
Kilbeggan blade does not look like a horse that is geared for Aintree – but i could be wrong
.
He has already won two races this season .All of the last 10 winners were out of the first two in their first two races – presumably to protect their handicap mark and to stay fresh
#139
January 12th, 2009 22:05
yeah but his mark was low, so it needed to come up, hence the wins!
He’s entered in a C4 chase over 3 miles at Towcester at the weekend. I can’t even see him being entered if he’s running there to be honest.
#140
January 13th, 2009 00:15
Agreed, Kilbeggan is probably not THE ONE and may not even get in!
I’m advising caution at this early stage with the pennies, especially with some of the main contenders already having such short odds before declarations, is this normal? never looked quite this early before.
Also, horses I’ve heard definately won’t run have prices quoted across the board, while horses I’ve heard will run have only a couple of odds, its misleading and unfair…unless you are on betFAIR ofcourse.
#141
January 13th, 2009 10:28
Come on then KJ…
Who’s running and who’s not?
#142
January 13th, 2009 11:19
well iris de balme and notre pere aint notelppa that is for sure.nor will denman.
#143
January 13th, 2009 16:10
Some quotes regarding Hot Weld here admin:
Ferdy Murphy’s Hot Weld has been off the track since winning the 2007 Betfred Gold Cup at Sandown, but the trainer reports him to be nearing a comeback.
“The plan is very much for Hot Weld to take his chance in the Grand National. He struck into himself at Sandown and he got a bit of a bulge but there was no tendon damage,” said Murphy.
“When we got him back in for the 2007/08 season, a haematoma had hardened and was interfering with his tendon, so we decided to give him the season off. We have done plenty of work and he’s raring to go. We may run him at Doncaster at the end of the month but he will improve for that as everything is being geared towards Aintree.”
#144
January 13th, 2009 18:13
He will certainly be one I will be keeping my eye on, if his prep goes to plan that is.
To meet the stats he needs 3 runs between now and 16 days (preferably 3 weeks) before the national, which I make between 14th-18th March.
Interestingly, there are 3 weeks before the Festival and the National this year, which might make it less of a disadvantge for those running at the festival and in the GN. I seem to recall Rough Quest running just 2 weeks (16 days to be exact) after his Gold Cup run. If Denman does line up, it will be 23 days after his Gold Cup run, which would put him in line for that stat at least.
#145
January 13th, 2009 20:30
interesting, 23 hey! well that kinda lengthens the list again!.. maybe Denman (and a few other cheltenham specialists) will run.
Hedgehunter had just 15days between his 2nd place in the Gold cup and the National, carrying 11-10 and then 11-12.
If Denman stays, something will still beat him surely.
It really opens up the list of potential winners on the stats, not just to the 10-0′s but other class horses like Comply, My Will and Halcon G par example! will have much less weight?!
bet some previous winners like ole hedgehunter would fancy their chances in this senario!
#146
January 13th, 2009 22:14
notelppa,….can you have a stab at what hot welds weight should be
if he runs which it sounds like he will and he really excites me and near top of my list.cheers mate keep up your entries,very interesting.
#147
January 13th, 2009 22:21
Hi Ryme no reason,I understand what you are trying to say about french breds and maybe one day they will win the national.But there is something in the breeding which doesn’t bring enough stamina for them to have enough in the tank at the end of the race.Every year i watch the race knowing that 4 horses at most will fit the stats and with all the things that can go wrong one of them still comes thru and wins the race.When the decs come out i will give my shortlist and then i have to wait to see how many runs the horse has had and the space it has on/off before the big day.Be brave everyone and lay DENMAN as its to good a horse to risk in this race when its only 8yrs old.
#148
January 14th, 2009 10:04
Hot Weld currently has an OR of 135 I believe. This would mean he would carry, assuming Denman does not run, something like between 10_05-10_08
#149
January 14th, 2009 14:33
daniel….thanks very much for that very helpful,think i am going to have a nibble at the 33′s on offer and then see how the market trades.
#150
January 14th, 2009 15:06
Personally I would wait until he’s had at least one run, and depending on the outcome of that race, perhaps two runs.
#151
January 14th, 2009 16:43
i think trainer has stated he will only have the one run and then straight to aintree as he is at his best at time of year.
#152
January 14th, 2009 17:54
Well no horse has ever won the National having had no runs in the season (I think…certainly not for over 100 years anyway)
Does anybody know the last horse to win having had one run? The last 20, at least, have all between 3 and 8 seasonal runs.
I would definately be holding my bets on Hot Weld on that basis.
Maybe one for 2010 though.
#153
January 14th, 2009 23:03
Wonderful comments – so much to think about. Sorry I have not commented recently but have been in hospital for the last ten days.
Will try to look at some of these runners afresh and comment in a few days.
#154
January 14th, 2009 23:19
Another thing that Hot Weld may not have in its favour is the ground as its won most of its races on good to firm.Roll on the 10th Feb when the weights are declared and we can really get stuck in to finding the winner and laying the losers!!!!!!
#155
January 15th, 2009 11:41
thankyou daniel and wacky,your comments have made realise to hold off for now which i should have learnt from last year when i pilled into parsons legacy,just find the big prices tempting but i do fancy hot welds chances.at present i do not think any horse bar one really stands out for me and there is negative aspects to alot of the fancied front fancies.that one by the way (wacky wont agree)is butlers cabin.
#156
January 15th, 2009 13:10
I think its a fair shout that all the leading protagonists still have some form of niggling doubt against them . one of the lessons I learned from last year is that its dangerous to go looking for the ” perfect horse” who has a 10 out of 10 .. Last year i hummed and hawed about comply or die because he was going to be wearing blinkers. The rest is history as they say , I still backed him and done well but coulda lumped on more … i guess the moral of the story here is if u really fancy a horse and he has 80% upwards of the main trends its still worth having a go as u can end up tieing urself up in knots loking for the dream horse… hope this helps..
#157
January 15th, 2009 14:13
thanks silver birch and i totally agree.i think that was the point ryme no reason was making 10/1.
#158
January 15th, 2009 15:40
I agree with you Silver Birch.
Trends need to be backed up with logic, analysis and common sense.
example; People say greys have a bad record. Well, they do, but only 3% of runners in around the last 30 years have been greys, so given that there are upwards of 30 runners each year, you would only expect to see a grey winner every 30 years or so! (which is roughly what you do)
Another example. Only 2 horses have ever achieved the Maryland Cup, America’s leading steeplechase, Grand National double. That would put people off on the face of it.
BUT only 4 horses have ever tried and one of the other 4 came 2nd, so in fact, it would be a good thing if a horse had previously won the Maryland Cup.
Does that make sense?!
#159
January 15th, 2009 16:35
Daniel, everyone,some info on prep runs. Aldaniti had one prep run, which he won after a lay off of 16 months, Miinnehoma had two prep runs, won one of them, after a lay off of 14 months. Since 1990
2-7 prep runs have covered the winners.
#160
January 15th, 2009 16:39
Does that mean Character Building comes into your reckoning Daniel, being a grey?
He is the only one I have backed ante post so far. He seems to be doing fairly well at present.
#161
January 15th, 2009 17:55
I wouldnt exclude on the basis he is a grey. I fancied Character Building and at the start of the season, but havent been impressed this time round.
See the main page for a discussion on him in detail.
#162
January 15th, 2009 18:03
I had Miinnehoma with 3 Crips, and Little Polvier (1989 -19 runnings ago because of the Void race of ’93) with 8, but cant double check this on RP at the moment.
I suppose it depends when you ‘start’ the season as well. When did Miinnehome have his runs? I know he had 2 in March.
#163
January 15th, 2009 18:13
Miinnehoma definitely had two. Little Polveir did have 8 and I know for sure Lucius in 1978 had 9.
#164
January 16th, 2009 00:31
Hi All! Systemsman hope you’re feeling okay after your hossy stint..
Now a ‘lil question re last year… I’ve checked over last year’s posts on the blogs and nobody seriously saw KJC as a serious threat – even though he nearly spoiled the party and almost caught COD and ruined our hopes. I recall Systemsman noting that KJC’s odds were shortening – but nobody really saw the runner-up as a credible threat. Is there something massive therefore to learn in this huge oversight, stats or otherwise?
#165
January 16th, 2009 09:33
Not really. As everyone is looking for the winner, which the stats threw up. It wouldn’t have mattered if KJC was a nose behind COD, it still came second.
The winner is what we are trying to find, everything behind it doesn’t matter really.
KJC had an awful stats analysis for a National winner but fair play if they finish in a place and you can land some nice Each Way money them.
#166
January 16th, 2009 11:51
The winner takes it all, I agree Stephen.
If KJC had sneaked a place in the top 10, I would agree, but to come 2nd and still firing on all cylinders, I do think this deserves a closer look.
Does anyone think there was anything at all about KJC that was overlooked or do we think he just come super good on the day?
#167
January 16th, 2009 12:37
Showlad,
As I vaguely recall, the owner (JPMcManus??) had KJC lined up to land a massive gamble, when word leaked out the price shortened significantly and brought him to Systemsmans attention.
My interpretation is that the connections had a horse bred for stamina which they considered a good GN chance, but deliberatley gave him a non-typical preparation, racing him over too short a trip to keep the odds up and the OR down. Hence why he was missed on the stats analysis.
Not much those of us can do who study the stats to prevent this, except follow the money when those ‘in the know’ lump on.
#168
January 16th, 2009 13:05
As a last check on the eve of the GN and on the morning of the race its always important to check where the money is going (hopefully with our ante-post selections). I always keep a small wager (to recover all money invested at least) back just in case the money spots something I didnt.
I will do this exercise again this year and post the resuts for all to see.
#169
January 16th, 2009 13:47
Not to mention of course the fact he raced as though he would need to conserve every drop of energy, and accordingly meant he had to come from too far off to challenge AND when it did come to the challenge, Comply or Die had him covered quite easily.
#170
January 16th, 2009 16:23
Thats an excellent point Gammers . theres always one that flies below the radar screen each year for the reasons u mentioned above . think slim pickings and kjc are classic examples of that in recent years – so theres likely to be at least one from the emerald isle whose currently strutting his stuff at 2 or 2 1/2 miles who will surprise many and get the 4m trip without necessarily winning .. a good little exercise for ew thieves to get stuck into .
#171
January 16th, 2009 16:28
You get paid more backing the winner at 7/1 than you do backing a place at 16/1 (as KJC was I believe)
#172
January 16th, 2009 19:30
Well guys as you are talking about a horse that hasn’t been mentioned very much and has been running over shorter distances what do you think about MISTER TOP NOTCH’S chance?MTN has won only one chase at 3 miles but it was the pierse handicap chase at Leop when it beat Kings john castle carrying top weight.This season it has run mainly at 2m 5f and i think that they are trying to get its handicap mark down as it seems a little high at the moment.Any views guys?
#173
January 17th, 2009 10:49
Can’t be having Mister Top Notch, certainly not to win. Put in some decent performances this season (2 at 3m, 1 at 2m 5f and 1 Bumper at 2m 1f!). Hasn’t protected his mark, in fact has gone up 4lb this season to 158. Likely, therefore, to carry topweight if running. Surely this horse hasn’t got the quality to make top 4 under 11-10 over 4 1/2m? His longest trip in his career has been 3m 1f where he fell at Aintree and was beaten 18l by Snowy Morning at levels. Didn’t run last year at 9yo off a lower mark, why would he be risked this year?
#174
January 17th, 2009 14:34
Does anyone have any thoughts on Harmony Brig for the national as a sporting ew bet …after winning at ayr he is now being targeted at the eider…
rated 136 , 10 chase runs , 2 chase wins . has won a chase greater than 18k – ts 142 rpr 146 .. never fallen over fences … not even quoted on betfair – any thoughts anyone… would anyone like to lay me on betfair ?:-)
#175
January 17th, 2009 16:34
Anybody think Glasker Mill could be a contender now i took 150s and 160s this morning before todays race,ran a stinker in welsh nat but done well today,his or will now be about 138! -Perfect.If it goes to aintree it’ll be running off a light weight. what about it systems man,could it do it?. 60s now on Betfair!
#176
January 18th, 2009 12:55
Just to remind people that the Racing Post will be issuing a Grand National supplement soon – normally in R post on the Tuesday or ednesday in week that the weights are announced,
It gives all the statistcs of the last ten years winners together with ante post betting and topsp and rpr ratings.
i was checking last years supplemnt and noted that Comply or Die was in the top 3 of the ratings (this was prior to his Eider Chase win ).
I think the winner is normally around 40/1 or less inthe ante post market ). i checked the first 40 horses and deleted all those with an OR of 144 or more. This left about ten horses which included comply or die whi was priced at 40/1 with some bookies. oNE OF THE SHORTFALLS FOR COMPY OR DIE , AT THAT TIME WAS TAHT HE HAD NOT WON A RACE WITH MORE THAN 13 RUNNERS IN )
IT IS WORTH CHECKING THOSE LEFT AGAINST THE RPR RTAINGS PROVIDED AS C OR DIE WAS THIORD TOP IN THE RATINGS.
BEST OF LUCK ANYWAY ( PLEASE EXCUSE UPPER CASE )
#177
January 18th, 2009 18:07
As a general mark on “weights day” the the GN winner is priced at 40/1 or less by most bookmakers (check oddschecker.com)- I would allow for one 50/1 quote only as a safeguard from the many listed. Personnely I will be giving all those on 33/1 or less (with maybe at the most two 40/1 quotes) more attention.
The bookies are getting better at spotting the GN winner.
#178
January 18th, 2009 22:15
To recap my notes from Dec 18th which many may have missed:
“The trends were (to find the GN winner prior to Christmas!!):
1. OR 136 to 144 (10/11 trend)
2. RPR rating 144minimum (9/10, 10 from 10 by 15th Jan)
3. Won case value £17,000 or more (11/11)
4. 3 Chase wins (any type) or more (9/10, 10/10 by 19th Feb)
5. Age 8 to 12 (12/12)
6. Completed in 10 Chases (9/10, 10/10 by 15th Jan)
7. Won over 24f or more (11/11, 9/11 at 25f or more)
8. Won Class 1 or 2 Chase-any type (11/11)
9. TS rating minimum of 111 (12/12, TS 128 or more 7/11)
The short list was: (* donates my own current thinking)
1. Butlers Cabin ***
2. Black Apalachi
3. Himalayan Trail ***
4. Chelsea Harbour
5. Parsons Legacy
6. Kilbeggan Blade ***
7. Iris de Balme
8. Endless Power
9. Garde Champetre
10. L Ami
11. Darkness
12. Southern Vic
13. Mattock Ranger
14. King Harold
These trends now apply in full (see dates in list given).
Kilbeggan Blade won his hurdle prep race today at Towcester and is most progressive. He fits all the winners trend citeria and has a OR of 141 (spot on). I would like to see a slighly higher RPR(145)and TS(124) but they are good enough for the winner (just). I think he now has to be placed right up there on any short list of four of five.
My short list.
1. Butlers Cabin
1. Himalayan Trail
3. Kilbeggan Blade
4. Garde Champetre
Tempted to put good old Parsons Legacy in there but he has a OR of 146 just a little too high I think.
Note I am sticking to my pre Christmas assessment so far.
#179
January 18th, 2009 22:58
i like your opinion on kilbeggan systemsman my brother owns this particular horse and i have been takin any odds available since december on him on betfair and have got him from 250s down to 180 .. i believe george is going to give him one more hurdle race before the national.. but i must admit that connections were unsure about giving him a run in the national but todays performance may prove that he might deserve his place in the line up
#180
January 18th, 2009 23:00
I still don’t think Kilbeggan Blade can win the GN, for the reasons ive already outlined. Today hasnt changed my mind, but a decent chase performance between now and race day might.
#181
January 20th, 2009 17:13
Hi admin,How about looking into the Thyestes handicap chase at Gowran park on thursday? A few possible national runners like Newbay props,Chelsea harbour,Preists leap,Mattock ranger and Hold the pin to name just a few.Newbay props is the one that is standing out for me as A J Martin is a very shrewd trainer and this horse has come 4th behind COD in the Eider,3rd behind preists leap in the thyestes and 5th in the irish nat behind hear the echo.What do you think guys?
#182
January 20th, 2009 17:36
Is Himilayan Trail still entered?
Down the years I haven’t come across it in the formbook of previous winners.
#183
January 20th, 2009 17:46
wacky re newbay props,i like the sound of him as apart from as you know B.C.which we will agree to dis-agree on nothing at this stage stands out for me.i will make a point of watching the race and lets see.but i do feel it is most likely that the winner has not been discussed in depth on this thread yet.apart from the above mentioned i still fancy hot weld.
#184
January 20th, 2009 18:36
Mmmm… Newbay Prop looks an interesting one. Will need to be top 2 though to be a contender for the big one. Given that Cloudy Lane is likely to go off topweight with an OR of about 161 (just my guess), bottom weight would be 137. Do we reckon 128 would get in? If he wins the Thyestes however, sure – he wouldn’t be too far out of the handicap. The big concern for me would be that he’s a 10yo who didn’t take his chance last year or 2007. He’s not quoted by any bookmaker and no one seems to want to back him on Betfair. My guess is you won’t get a run for your money.
#185
January 20th, 2009 20:50
Just think until Comply or Die won the Eider not many had given it a second thought.You can be sure that over the next month that trainers will be trying to get there horse on the handicap mark they need.Newbay is fav for the race at gowran park so watch out!!!
#186
January 20th, 2009 21:22
Absolutely Wacky and at 5/1, you have to account for the possibility he will win it. The bigger concern for me, though would be that he’s 10 and didn’t take his chance as a 9yo. I’d love him to win, yet another boost to Hear the Echo’s Irish National form. It’s already produced a convincing winner of the Welsh National (beaten 16l at levels).
#187
January 21st, 2009 10:17
Interesting to note that Cloudy Lane has been raised to 159 following his win on Saturday. Assuming he runs off this mark as topweight, then bottom weight will be 135 and any horse with 148 or less will have less than 11-0. So I reckon you can consider any horse in the 135 – 148 bracket. Perfect for Butler’s Cabin who may well carry just 10-0, a full 17lb less then carrying when falling last year as an 8yo.
#188
January 21st, 2009 11:28
The changing of the top weight from 12_00 to 11_10 is going to make a big big diffrence.
Whereas now we say 11_01 is the highest weight, do we think that the ideal maximum weight will become 4lb less, so 10_11?
Will be interesting to see what the next few years bring. Plus it also gives those under top weight a better chance.
Personally I prefered it at 12 stone. AS you say Notelppa, letting quality horses like Butlers Cabin run with 10_00 doesnt seem right to me.
#189
January 21st, 2009 12:41
I’ll stick with the old trends until proved wrong.
Winner OR 136 to 144 (best profile).
I make Butlers Cabin (OR 135 – as listed on Racng Post web site) on 10.00 if Cloudy Lane (OR 159) is top weight on 11.10 (very likley he will be the top weight).
Bulers Cabin looks better by the day (and never ever ran in France!!).
To recap recent winners: Or / Weight / Price
2008 139 (OR) 10.09 (weight) 7/1JF (Price)
2007 138 10.06 33/1
2006 138 10.08 11/1
2005 144 11.01 7/1F
2004 139 10.10 16/1
2003 139 10.07 16/1
2002 136 10.04 20/1
2001 140 10.11 33/1
2000 139 10.12 10/1
1999 142 10.00 10/1
1998 147 10.05 7/1
Note since 1999 (10/10 trend) the winners OR has ONLY varied between 136 and 144 (amazing fact is it not?.
As Notelppa noted Butles Cabin carried 11.03 last year with OR 147. This year he is OR 135 with a winning weight on 10.00 (or therabouts). A lower weight but getting into the handicap proper is not a problem as too much weight. You could argue that BC has the perfect weight – the lowest possible weight yet in the handicap proper – not bad for class horse that has won the Irish National in 2007.
Challanging for the lead at Bechers 2nd time round last year he must have a live chance in 2009!
Butlers Cabin won the Irish National in April 2007 on OR 135 with 10.04 (29f)
In March 2007 he won the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham of 12.00 (!!) on OR 123 (33f)beating Character Building 3/4 L.
He has also prviously won at Aintree.
Someone till me why he cant win in 2009 please (I dont buy the “French” thing in this case!!).
#190
January 21st, 2009 13:16
As you say the OR of 136-144 is a 10/10 trend. Butlers Cabin OR is 135. doesn’t fit that stat.
However i have got a ante post bet on him as i can only see his price dropping from now on
#191
January 21st, 2009 13:22
You have to laugh at that!!
#192
January 21st, 2009 13:39
Without stating the obvious Systemsman, you rule Butler’s Cabin out with your statement “I’ll stick with the old trends until proved wrong.
Winner OR 136 to 144 (best profile).”.
For me, this year it has to be 135 – 148 which relates to weights 10-0 to 10-13. I’d have slight concerns if backing OR 146-148 but would have to consider. As it happens, I have a not so shortlist based on OR 135 – 148 plus the usual trends (ignoring the French trend) along with certain odds criteria and still come up with 8 against the field. Of these, I’ve discounted 2 leaving 6. For the record, these are (in OR order):
Black Apalachi OR 146
Hear the Echo OR 145
Chelsea Harbour OR 143
Hot Weld OR 141
Himalayan Trail OR 138
Butler’s Cabin OR 135
Would it be a massive surprise if a horse with 10-10 won? There are 4 listed above who’ve won with at least this weight. How can you put Butler’s Cabin forward based on the above data and discount any horse with an OR over 144? Who is the most recent winner with an OR of 135 or less? You only have to go back to 1998 to find a winner with an OR >144. Also, the conditions of the race have changed to improve the chances of higher rated horses.
#193
January 21st, 2009 14:13
If you were to stick purely to the trends that systemsman stated on 18/12 and 18/01 then i would make it that only 3 horses fit the perfect profile to win.
These being Kilbeggan Blade, Garde Champetre & Southern Vic.
#194
January 21st, 2009 14:49
Fair point Brian:
Kilbegan blade: Looking back over his form in C1 races, I can’t see him challenging. I also don’t like the fact that he’s not quoted by the major bookies and only £550 to date traded on Betfair.
Garde Champetre: I’ll keep my eyes on but would expect to miss the National. More likely to run at Cheltenham. His chance would have been last year. If I hear he’s likely to run, I’ll add him.
Southern Vic: Again, not quoted by bookies and little action on Betfair. Since Dec 06, he’s had 3 chases – UR,F,5(of6).
Of these, Garde Champetre is the only one I could consider but I’d have to be more confident of his participation.
#195
January 21st, 2009 14:58
Wasn’t putting any of them forward to win. I was just stating that these are the only ones with the perfect profile.
In my opinion i dont like trends that are 10/10 as they just scream out to me that they will be broken. Out of the three i have to agree that Garde Champetre is the only one that catches my eye but agree it will more than likely run at cheltenham.
Just wondering if there is enough time between the festival and the national if he would have a chance to do both.
I wont be really looking into the runners in any more depth now until after the weights have been announced as i just cant see any value in placing ante post bets on now.
#196
January 21st, 2009 15:09
I think this will be my last comment on the ‘trends’, at least until nearer the race.
Last year I didnt know about the trends, but then I read Hedgehunter was is the only horse in the last 24 years to carry more than 11 stone to victory, so I focused below 11_01.
Then I found out about RPR of at least 145, so discounted those below 145.
Then the days since last run ruled out another horse for me, cant remember which, and then I looked and realised no 7 year old had won for however long as the same with 13 year olds.
Just keeping it simple and doing those 4 stats left me with 12 horses. 6 of them were obvious no hopers, and of the 6 that were left I didnt fancy backing Cloudy Lane at 5/1 and I didnt want to back Snowy Morning with his questionable jumping.
This left me with 4 horses; Comply or Die, McKelvey, Slim Pickings and Bewleys Berry, backed them all ew, except for COD luckily, and got paid on 3 of them, including the winner. I much prefer thinking about it for myself!
I wont be put off by 8 chase runs, or being 8 years old, or having run one day too soon or anything like that. Trends are there to be broken, and if you follow them too rigidly, you end up not getting the winner.
I have backed 3 national winners since 2002; Bindaree, Hedgehunter and COD. Following the stats wouldn’t have got you the first two of those, and you probably wouldnt have got Silver Birch or Numbersixvalverde either. So, they are not bomb proof.
#197
January 21st, 2009 15:10
Absolutely, applying trends without common sense leads to trouble. I’d pick Hear the Echo, Butler’s Cabin and Himalayan Trail over the above 3 any day! Agreed, there’ll be little change between now and the weights announcement.
#198
January 21st, 2009 15:12
The lowest rated horse in last year’s National was 137, top was 156. Think top weight will be something rated higher than Cloudy Lane, lowest OR could 140′ish? Bobbyjo was a stone out of the handicap so I make his official OR at the time 128.
Apart from the French aspect- more debate nearer the time perhaps!- Butlers Irish National win is important -as is Hear The Echo’s- as only four winners in the last twenty two nationals (Seagram, Royal Athlete and Lord Gyllene) had not had a top 5 hennessey place, a top 3 Welsh, Scots, Irish National finish or a top 2 place in a race over National fences. Those three mentioned all won at least three chases over 3 miles and at least one at 28f or further. The last National winner not to fit these criteria was Lucius in 78. I think he won five chases all at or around 3 miles.
Personally, at the moment, I’m staying clear of French Breds and think that anything rated up to 149, at least, is in the mix. Would be an easier race to work out if Denman runs!
Not a very shortlist;
Parsons Legacy, Cornish Sett, Hear The Echo, Black Apalachi
Himlayan Trail, Character Building, Hot Weld,Royal County Star,
Rambling Minster,Kilbeggan Blade
#199
January 21st, 2009 15:16
Sorry, in last post that should be ‘three winners in last twenty two Nationals’
#200
January 21st, 2009 15:17
Oh, and before I forget, people who say Cornish Sett cant win because unplaced horses dont come back to win the National, I suggest you look a little closer at the profiles of Red Maurader and Amberleigh House.
#201
January 21st, 2009 15:24
Agree with Notelppa that common sense must prevail along with certain trends.
Crisp without sounding funny towards your methods as im sure they have pocketed you some good fortune in the past but do you not look at your list of trends and think these could be manipulted into anything to cover the winner.
For Eg. you say a top 5 hennessey, top 3 welsh, scots, irish national finish or a top 2 place over national fences. Say this year it was a 4th place finisher from a welsh national. All that would happen is that your trends next year would be top 5 hennessey, top 4 welsh, scots, irish national finish.
Given time i could find a list of trends that cover every single winner of the Grand National and adjust it slightly whenever it doesnt hold up.
#202
January 21st, 2009 15:40
Brian, you have hit the nail of the head when it comes to trends/stats. They can always be manipulated.
I have already pointed out somewhere that by following 10/10 trends AS THEY WERE AT THE TIME, would have meant you did not get quite a few of the last 10 runners. It is important to look at the stats as they were, and not just as they are, if that makes sense!
And ive just realised I said that would be my last post previously, but I couldnt help myself!
#203
January 21st, 2009 15:47
Fair comment, Brian. But tweaking trends is exactly the way to do it. Most of this research has been done since last year’s race and pre 1970′s not much of it stands up. But apart from horses running two or three times less on average than they did thirty years ago – eg many national winners prior to 1990 had 8 preps – these profiles do fit over a considerable amount of time because of things like trainers aiming horses at particular races and distances. Might just warn us about a Red Marauder or a Last Suspect(who won at least three chases at 3 miles, one of those at 30f, and finished third twice in the Irish Grand National!)
#204
January 21st, 2009 16:23
Newbay prop is THE horse on my
‘intersting low weighted n irish shortlist!’
not that I’ve gone thro everything with a fine tooth comb! – didn’t know he was running thurs, an intersting line up of pretenders, will try and watch so thanks for that. Agree he has to do very well to get in, but I think he has a good chance off a low weight, being 10 is still ideal but why didn’t they put him in last year? his form was proven, although looking at things like his 4th behind C or D for example he was way back and beaten by Elvis!!!
Still think, IF Comply can get his interest back and gets a fair weight he’s got the beating of the lot.
#205
January 21st, 2009 17:21
Big ‘IF’ though….I wouldnt want to back him without a decent outing between now and Aintree. Would be punting in the dark I think.
#206
January 21st, 2009 17:21
Getting interesting!
Some really good points on the interpretation of stats / trends. One example that occurs to me is – look at Hedgehunter. When he fell in the National, he was leading but got tired and fell at the last. If he’d scraped over that final fence and finished at a walk, would we still be saying horses can’t finish the race then go on to win it in the future? The problem with placed horses is they’re penalised for what could be a mediocre effort. This is why I’m keeping Chelsea Harbour on my list. This is only because he was 8 and is open to improvement (like Hedgehunter). Though he’s bottom of my list as he’s failed to complete in 2 of his last 3 races.
#207
January 21st, 2009 18:27
Let’s get real about Butlers Cabin (I’am not saying he is the only one who can win but must be in any short list of five/six and 20/1 wont last much longer)).
Remember the debate about blinkers last year? Ofcourse there is often some slight change in the trends (you can win the GN with blinkers! There wre so many who said this would not happen last year).
So Butlers Cabin on OR 135 and not 136 is not a problem if he gets into the handicap proper on 10.00 or so (Bindaree won well ouside the handicap). If he won it just means that the new trend would be that the best OR profile is 135 (not 136) to 144 best (not a huge change is it?)and 135 to 147 to cover all the last eleven winners.
The key point is that Butlers Cabin will have about 17lbs or so less than when he was challenging for the lead last year (see the video on YouTube) and clearly has the GN as his one and only target this year – my only concern is that will he get in the last 40 to run on OR 135?
I concur with Notelppa (also a very good short list)when he stated
“For me, this year it has to be 135 – 148 which relates to weights 10-0 to 10-13. I’d have slight concerns if backing OR 146-148 but would have to consider”.
I will try to reassess the short list over the next week now I am back on my feet.
Be prepared for a lot of rubbish being printed in the Racing Post on “weights day” when they will talk up runners with over OR 148 based on Denman running (he wont!!!).
#208
January 21st, 2009 19:02
interesting read about butlers cabin here,
seems ridiculus that a horse like this could end up carrying near 10.0, having won carrying 12.0 for 33f. I can’t say however I’ve really noticed him which is a worry recently, form is not good hence the drop with his rating.
Last year in the national he was going well considering only 7 and carrying 11.03.
But then I realised his real handicap in this race is that AP rides him!!!
#209
January 21st, 2009 19:20
Just realised, with the chance of butlers not getting in on 135
he probably won’t get AP treatment! which helps.
May consider this horse yet.
will Tony ever win this race?..
#210
January 21st, 2009 22:48
Think that things will become clearer when the weights come out on the 10th feb.But one thing is for sure i won’t be backing a french bred until they break the stat!!!Newbay prop won’t be 130 on betfair 2mrw night of that im sure!!Keep up the great banter guys & girls.
#211
January 22nd, 2009 10:06
Re 20s not lasting much longer on Butlers Cabin, you said that when he was 16s!
#212
January 22nd, 2009 11:09
Wasn’t been sarcastic towards you crisp and i think you do have some valid points in your outlook on the race. Its just i remember i was nearly put off silver birch because someone had stated horses that run at cheltenham dont win the national. After the national they then turned round and said Ah yes but there is a difference in running in the gold cup and running in the Cross country which was a fair point to make but it was made after the national therefore another trend was manipulated because before silver birch people werent saying horses that run in the gold cup (or other equally hard contested race at the festival) dont win the national!!!
I never really buy into the OR stat myself. i prefer to go by the weights (some may argue its the same thing really but i’ll agree to disagree with them).
The one stat i strictly stick to is I wont back anything that has over 11:03
#213
January 22nd, 2009 11:27
One horse i bet a while back Kings Advocate i had discounted because of his non-appearance and price drifting heavily on betfair,he’s entered at Leopardtown on sunday,his OR is 126,2 chase wins before weights day could see him sneak in on 138.
He was 9/2 fav for irish national 2 years ago so must have some ability,bit of a long shot but they might be aiming him for this.
#214
January 22nd, 2009 11:40
I think Bindaree had run at Cheltenham as well Brian.
Only those 2 in the last decade though (I think that’s right) so it is definately a negative.
If you place in a race at the festival it is even harder to win. Rough Quest was the first horse to do so in how many years was it??
#215
January 22nd, 2009 11:59
Good point Brian. I think the OR/ weight thing was talked about at length last time- ask systems and myself!! If you stick to a 10st- 11st 5lbs,nothing but Red Rum has won with this weight since the fifties, you cover all the probables however the race is framed. Nothing has won carrying 12lbs more than bottom weight since ’84 which is why Hedgehunter managed to win carriyng 11st 1lb, he was only carrying 10lbs more than bottom weight.
That is another key thing. You need to know why have the winners over the last 10years been rated 136-144 – it’s because the top OR has been less than 160. During the 90′s the top OR was higher hence the winners OR was higher because horses on an OR of say 136 could have been carrying 6-14lbs more than their OR. Systems is correct to say that when the OR is 150 something then a horse rated between mid 130′s and 140′s will probably win because those horses will carry between 10-11st.
All trends,profiles do need backing up and I think the guys stressed last year that a good run/ blow out at Cheltenham isn’t a bad thing but a hard fought win probably is given that only Seagram had managed this in a long time. Even Foinavon had a top 7 Gold Cup finish. Ok, he was the last to finish!!!! but even Miinnehoma only managed seventh in the Gold Cup the year he won.
Talking of Silver Birch it’s amazing how many boxes he ticked on the profile front- four chase wins over 3 miles including won at 30f, top3 Welsh National finish and a top 2 finish over National fences.
#216
January 22nd, 2009 12:15
Re Silver Birch, why was he missed out? I remember Systemsman saying he didnt get him. I am interested to know why.
#217
January 22nd, 2009 12:30
Ah yes but Silver Birch would of been overlooked because he was 100/1 at this stage of the year when he won.
Which is my point exactly you cant stick to all the trends/stats as it will be very rare you get the winner if your looking for the perfect profile.
The winner will fit most stats each year and the ones it doesn’t match that year get tweaked so it does fit them.
Take for example 1996 prior to that race over a ten year period no 10 year old had won therefore a 10/10 stat. Now look at how many have won it since then. Same with no favourite had won it in the 10 year before 1996 another 10/10 stat.
So rough quest would of been ruled out on both of them 10/10 stats / trends.
Now weve got a 9/10 trend that 8 year olds dont win, would you really rule out all 8 year olds because of this trend??????
Crisp Your view on 12lbs greater than bottom weight is an interesting one and one that i will look into a bit more.
Wacky are the weights revealed on the 10th Feb. i thought it was more nearer the end of Feb?
#218
January 22nd, 2009 12:53
Daniel said “Re 20s not lasting much longer on Butlers Cabin, you said that when he was 16s!”
All due to the Denman factor which blew the market apart.
Butlers Cabin is quoted as 16/1 by 6/15 bookies on Oddschecker.com. and 37/2 by betfair (I make that 18.5/1). Now when he gets down to <12 or less as the 2nd Fav or even Joint Fav on the day I bet you wished you had a safety bet on him at 20/1 or even 16/1! There were those last year who stated that the value had gone out of Comply or Die when he was 20/1 and then 16/1! Butlers Cabin will go off no better than 12/1 on the day and probably 8/1 – 10/1.
Anyone have any more ideas on Hear The Echo who now seems to fit the trends (best price only 16/1 I’am afraid). Only aged 8 (not agood record) but they still win.
#219
January 22nd, 2009 13:11
Fair point systesman on the Denman factor.
Personally, I would rather put more on at 12s or whatever the price may be nearer the time, than bet now at 20s and risk losing my stake. In light of the trainer’s comments the other day, I cant see the 20s disappearing just yet.
Re:age. I dont care if another 8 year old or 12 year old doesnt win for the next 6-7 years or so. I wont be ruling them out because they do win. When you have horses running aged 7-13, ruling out one of them on a 10/10 stat is foolish, because their are 7 different ages that can win, so you will often get a 10/10 stat that excludes a certain age! Thats why I only rule out 7 and 13yo’s when it comes to age, because they have not even BEEN PLACED since 1968 & 1970 respectively. Now that is a stat!
#220
January 22nd, 2009 13:41
Excellent point on the age thing there Daniel and i hope everyone takes heed of this advice.
I also think this point can be applied to other so called ‘Find the Winner trends’ and that is where common sense should prevail over trends (especially if the trends are only covering the last 10 or so years)
#221
January 22nd, 2009 16:19
Any interest in Priests Leap after this afternoons result? 24f in bottomless ground suggests a certain amount of stamina, and OR will go up a few lbs from 135.
Not had a proper look, but meets the basic age / weight / 24f win criteria.
#222
January 22nd, 2009 16:20
Take it that result now stops everyone from talking about newbay prop from winning the national!!!!!
#223
January 22nd, 2009 16:29
I think that could be the end of the road for Himalayan Trail re Grand National aspirations . I dont believe a pulled up in what should one of his final prep runs is good enough . He will also im sure be dropped a few pounds from his current OR of 138 and may find himself in the same dangerous territory now as Butlers cabin … anybody any thoughts ? – im afraid im removing him from my no 1 slot after today … revised fancies
1. Black Appalachi
2. Hear the Echo
3. State of Play
4. Butlers Cabin
5. Snowy Morning
6. Joe Lively
#224
January 22nd, 2009 16:39
Doesn’t look good does it for Himalayan trail but theres still a possible for 1 more run before the weights are announced (Which wacky was correct it is 10 Feb).
Think the horse that came out of that the best was Chelsea Harbour.
#225
January 22nd, 2009 16:58
I didnt see the race, but why was a 5th for Newbay Prop so bad over a 3m trip on ground that may not have favoured?
#226
January 22nd, 2009 17:29
Could be right SB about ‘Trail. Interestingly he seemed to be one we all agreed on. Not all over yet I suppose, a few winners have had a non finish among preps but he’s now had two- as did Rough Quest- and he obviously doesn’t like heavy going. Perhaps Mangan’s desire to keep down OR-running the horse on ground he doesnt like- will backfire and he’ll miss the cut. I agree with you Dan about ‘Prop. Could be the big one for the Irish. Preists Leap seems similar to Montys Pass, hasnt ran over a longer distance though MP did have a successful spin around Aintree.
#227
January 22nd, 2009 17:43
I thought Newbay Prop was running into it at the end. I think he ran an ok race. It’s hard to see him in the National though on that rating. But if he does turn up he could have a squeek at a place.
#228
January 22nd, 2009 18:04
Re Priests Leap’s chances, he went up 11lb for his victory last year, so if he went up another 11lb for this one (i know that isnt necessarily the case, but as a ballpark figure) his OR would be 146, so approximately 10_11.
#229
January 22nd, 2009 18:28
I really would apprreciate more views on Hear the Echo as i am warming to him now (am working on a complete re review of the leading runners which I will post some days hence). SILVER BIRCH i see you have him as No 2 – why?
Daniel we are argreed the price of Butlers Cabin will probably remain at or around 16/1 – 20/1 untill 48 hours after the weights are published on Feb 10th – then see some!(you ask why I never spotted Silver Birch – the answer was that I had not found this site and was using a much cruder set of “stats” rather than the excellent trends and info on this site – the price was also a major issue. I am also now early retired and have much more time to play and have fun with trends).
I do belive that between us all we can get the winner down to a short list of five and obviusly this is easier after the weights are published – looking at the ante-post is for fun and the bigger prices (what some of us want). We will all still have to take a gamble on weather Denman runs or not as he is bound to be listed in the weights distorting the whole picture with a lots of rubbish no doubt being written on weights day about high OR horses winning the GN. All my own aasessments will be made on Denman not running (I will however hold back a last minute wager till after the Gold Cup to cover anythinhg I have left out including Denman running, if he falls early in the Gold Cup).
Re: today’s race in Ireland – did this really show anything on Heavy ground (unless ofcourse its Heavy for the GN?).
#230
January 22nd, 2009 20:42
Gowran Park race- I think that Newbay Prop ran into it at the end for sure too, which is a big positive for the real thing, a mile further… e/w prospect IF gets in.
Himalyan Trail faded back tamely after a good start, I think it may have confirmed my thoughts that he is rather untested in goodish company and with any weight.
Chelsea H looks the obvious one to take from this, prominent throughout, better form argueably than last year when he finished 9th.
But with this recent results reading,. win, dangerous crazy jumping unseated, win, fall, 2nd. I can’t back a horse whose jumping is so unbelievably variable.
#231
January 22nd, 2009 20:42
Hi Systems man – I think its fair to say everybodys had at least half an eye on Hear the Echo since the word go. I just fancy him because hes an irish nat winner , who if denman runs , could be running with only ten stone on his back and although there has been much debate about his two jumping falls he just cannot safely be ruled out.. hes probably not one of the “sexiest horses” in the line up and has been flying under the radar screen in terms
of how much he has been talked up but bad horses dont win irish nationals and as more and more potential horses fall by the wayside he seems to be coming up to near the top on most peoples short list . i will admit that if denman doesnt run he has a harder task on his hands because i think hell end up with about 11 stone which will be a lot more difficult to contend with . some people are probably asking why eleven stone , i know cloudy lane will prob have an OR of aprox 160 after haydock last week but surely phil smith will know that hes a potential candidate for carrying top weight on the day and will maybe lop a few pounds off and give him 155 . therefore assuming hte runs off 145 he will be carrying 11-0.
I just cant help feeling theres going to be something a bit different about this years nat winner as i dont get the same warm feeling as most years that there is any one horse with outstanding credentials .. its a real hard slog this year but loadsa fun and fair enjoying the banter and evbodys input on the site ….:-)
#232
January 22nd, 2009 21:13
yes Birchy, I agree this year does feel different,
bit of a topsy turvy feeling, shame theres not a horse called credit crunch!
#233
January 22nd, 2009 21:40
Come on guys all good things come to those that wait.I know we all would love to find the winner now and have a small stake for a massive return,but we have to live in the real world.Just relax and buy the racing post on the 11th feb and things will become much clearer as using the trends is bound to knock alot of horses.By applying AGE,OFFICIAL RATINGS,NUMBER OF RUNS,CHASE WIN £17,000 and NO FRENCH BRED you will have a very short list.KEEP THE FAITH….
#234
January 23rd, 2009 00:11
So what did you make of your protege Newbay Prop today Wacky? Dissapointed or a promising warm up?
#235
January 23rd, 2009 10:08
Comments from Priests Leap’s trainer after yesterdays run…
“He will go for the Grand National, providing there’s cut in the ground and he will probably have another run before that.”
Why haven’t more high street firms quoted a price about him for the Natioanl?
#236
January 23rd, 2009 10:50
I dont think Butlers Cabin’s price will change after weights day; we all know what sort of weight he is going to be on already. I think a decent prep run and some more positive comments from his trainer will definately bring the price down. Personally, I shall wait a bit, although I do agree he looks the most likely winner at this stage.
#237
January 23rd, 2009 11:12
Systems- I think Hear The Echo chances are good if, something with an OR say of 165 runs or perhaps as happened last year a lot of entries meant bottom weight was 10-7 and he wasn’t giving much weight away to too many. So even off something like 11st you wouldn’t rule him out purely on weight. A low racing weight, for me, offsets his jumping record (see Royal Athlete and Rough Quest)and puts him close to the top of the list and maybe in that often heard category, ‘if he gets round he’ll win!!’.
A few stats about Irish Nat winners. Record of Irish Nat winners who had raced in Nat as 8yr olds since 1946.
Revelry ’48,11-6, fin 12th. Dominicks Bar ’52,10-13,fell.
Perris Valley ’89, 10-0, fell. Davids Lad ’02, 11-1, fell.
Butlers Cabin ’08, 11-3, fell.
Irish Nat winners who have won or placed in Nat. during same time;
Prince Regent 3rd in’46, 11.12-5, 4th in ’47, 12.12-7,
Rhyme N Reason won in ’88,9.11-0. Ebony Jane 4th in ’94, 9.10-1.
Bobbyjo won in ’99, 9.10-0. Papillon won in ’00, 9.10-12.
Numbersixvalverde won in ’06, 10.10-8.
Those stats dont look good for HTE but eleven Irish trained horses have won during the same time and three of the were 8yr olds;
Caughoo, ’47, 10-0, Early Mist ’53, 11-2, Mr What ’58, 10-6
Incidentally twelve 8yr olds have won since 1946.
#238
January 23rd, 2009 11:23
Daniel you asked why i think Newbay props run yesterday should mean he wont win.
Isn’t his OR now 128 which by reckoning would mean he wont get in.
However i could be wrong about his OR so will double check it before totally righting his chances off.
#239
January 23rd, 2009 11:31
Yep, you are right Brian. Unless of course they can get him to run a blinder in the next 2 weeks
#240
January 23rd, 2009 14:15
correct daniel BUTLERS CABIN is the one. wacky french bred my arse.
#241
January 23rd, 2009 14:23
I can see this one running and running!!
#242
January 23rd, 2009 17:46
Thanks “ryme no reason” for the support and welcome to the Bulers Cabin fan club (or at least for any sensible short list)!
Yep its going to run all the way past the winning post Daniel!!!
#243
January 23rd, 2009 17:54
All i can say guys is good luck if you back Butlers Cabin.I will live or die by the stats and hope that BC is a short price on the day so i can lay it til the cows come home. Hi Showlad,I feel that Newbay Prop ran a good race and a step up in distance will suit.But i think it will have to win a race to get a rating high enough to win the big race.Jury out and just waiting for weights now.
#244
January 23rd, 2009 18:06
Wacky, im not here to start an argument.
BUT there is an old addage in statistics. It goes;
Correlation does not equale causation.
Have a think about it!
The french bred stat comes from horses who have been trained and raced in their early days in France. On that basis Butlers Cabin is not really French.
And you say you live and die by the stats. WOuld it not be more sensible to be proactive and adjust them if you think they need adjusting than to be re-active and only adjust them afterwards?? Without doing this, how many of the past 10 winners would actually have been ‘the one’ according to the stats.
Since I first bet on the national (2002) I have 3 out of 7, and I didnt have a bet in 03, so 3 out of 6 really. That was without the stats (although I am a fan of them) I doubt the stats can over much better than that return. In fact I KNOW they can’t.
Remember; Correlation does not equal Causation.
#245
January 23rd, 2009 18:07
not sure why I spelt reactive ‘re-active’! sorry
#246
January 23rd, 2009 18:44
I understand what you are all trying to say but until a French bred horse wins the national i will put a line thru them.Just because it hasn’t run in france has no revelents on it having a better chance.I’ve had the last 4 winners since learning the stats and its not a case of digging my heels in,im just confident that better horses will be on my short list.Can we please agree to disagree as im sure like you im trying to put a different spin on the race.Good luck with BC.
#247
January 23rd, 2009 19:32
Nothing like a bit of lively debate! At the moment stats on french bred isn’t good, good point made about being proactive. When compiling any shortlist always good to put in at least one ‘against the grain’ to cover any trends/profile changes. Not against french breds winning, thugh the fact it hasn’t happened is a major negative. Nothing to do with reacing in France. The French race over shorter distances so breed horses accordingly, speed more than stamina. But as I said in an earlier post not many fancied French breds have come to Aintree without good trends( prep runs,form etc)
I think this year it could be different if Denman runs because if he does then it would seem, from what has been said, that maybe Exotic, Halcon, Star de Mohaison, Notre Pere, Miko, My Will,Mon Mome, Dear Villez, Nozic, Madison du Berlais, Garde Champetre – all highly rated french breds – would run as they would all be on a, roll up,roll up once in a lifetime racing weight in the National. If this were to happen you would have to go along with the old theory that if you throw enough balls you’ll bag a coconut.
One gripe I’ve got about Butlers is his figures for this season. I’m sure it was mentioned last time that the winner always had at least a top four placing over fences in National winning season- in fact only Papillon, Bindaree and No.6 didn’t manage a top 2 placing over fences in the last thirty odd years. Until it shows otherwise BC resembles a horse a bit on the slide. But then again ……
#248
January 23rd, 2009 20:55
I dont think you can discount BC’s stamina as he has won over the 33F with what is probably going to be either a higher or same weight as he will be allocated in the GN.
What i was wondering is has there ever been a french ‘Bred’ horse that has won the Irish / Scottish / Welsh national that has went on to contest the Grand National on a similar weights level before?
If not then the BC could be the one that goes against the grain.
#249
January 23rd, 2009 21:08
Crisp. I wouldn’t pay too much attention to placing in a prep race in the season, at least not yet. You mention 3 horses in 30 odd years who haven’t placed top 2 in their GN season. That’s also 3 in 9 years. You have to admit, this is becoming the traditional preparation. Silver Birch didn’t place in a chase until February. Papillon’s only top4 chase was 4th in a 6 runner race over 2 miles in which one fell and one was tailed off. I’d kick myself if I overlooked a winner based on such an uninformative trend. I’m with Daniel on trends I’m afraid. I would say this is the most likely of all trends to be broken. Also, it’s early days and a good run from Butler’s Cabin or Hear the Echo in a chase in Feb / March would really cement them as the 2 to be on.
#250
January 23rd, 2009 21:10
Also another query i have got is where is the french part for butlers cabin???
I know that might sound like a stupid question but when i’ve looked at its pedigree i cant find any french horses in its blood line?
Apologies in advance if its just me
#251
January 23rd, 2009 21:12
I believe BC was bred IN France from a mainly American pedigree.
#252
January 23rd, 2009 21:21
so then the stamina issues which are connected to the french bred horses dont win nationals must be ignored then as its bloodline comes from USA and not France.
Thats unless USA bred horses dont have stamina but then that will be another trend to look at.
My opinion has to be i cant discount BC on the sole reason it has the letters FR next to its name.
#253
January 23rd, 2009 21:44
Notelppa- If Butlers has a good run in a chase and finishes in top 4, wont that be upholding that statistic that you say will be broken? So you think this year’s National winner wont have placed in a chase this season? I did say, ‘Until it shows otherwise BC resembles a horse a bit on the slide’. Not for me at the moment, three runs, three duck eggs. As for being an unformative trend I think thirty odd years is quite strong and how is it unimformative to place in a race showing how good/ well a horse is? By the way although Bindaree didn’t have a top 2 placing he had a top 5 Hennessey finish and a top 3 welsh national finish. I’d say that was quite informative.
#254
January 23rd, 2009 22:06
13 out of the last 14 winners had actually had a top4 finish by this time. Hedgehunter and Royal Athlete had theirs in hurdle races but that is all that they had contested up until this time. Silver Birch had finished 4th in his only race thus far but I’m not sure what it was,hurdles or fences. Papillon didn’t have a top 4 finish at this time.
#255
January 23rd, 2009 22:10
Sorry Crisp, I may have confused 2 seperate points, those being 1: Butler’s Cabin could easily meet the trend before the off and 2: I don’t think it would be a shock any more if this trend didn’t hold up due to the change in traditional preparation. It would seem that horses aimed at the National are now more likely to be protected and, therefore, have fewer runs in chases and are also likely to be entered in races not suited to them in order to protect their handicap, meaning that the “placed top 4″ trend is less likely to be kept. This is shown by the fact that the “top 2 in a chase” trend has been broken 3 times in the last 9 years. If looking at trends in 2000, you would have said, no winner in 20 odd years has failed to get a top 2 finish. The change in preparation (started by Papillon) has now meant that this has been broken in one third of Nationals since.
I can understand the thinking behind your “horse on the slide” comment although the fact that 2 of his 3 races were over hurdles makes me think he’s being genuinely aimed at the National because the connections feel he has a chance. Surely his run at Wincanton has to be too bad to be true? Also, he’d been disappointing in his run up to last year’s race but his performance then is the reason many people fancy him.
#256
January 23rd, 2009 23:06
I believe BC was bred IN France from a mainly American pedigree.
——————————————————————————–
Brian Says:
January 23rd, 2009 at 9:21 pm
so then the stamina issues which are connected to the french bred horses dont win nationals must be ignored then as its bloodline comes from USA and not France.
Thats unless USA bred horses dont have stamina but then that will be another trend to look at.
My opinion has to be i cant discount BC on the sole reason it has the letters FR next to its name.
Cmon Wacky, that has to make you see sense, surely!?! His mum and dad got it on in France….big deal!! Does that make Brooklyn Beckham a New York’er??!!
#257
January 24th, 2009 10:06
To be fair to Wacky, he has made the point that the French like to breed horses for their own races which tend to be shorter and looking at BC’s pedigree, it doesn’t shout Grand National. This is the point that would concern me more than the (FR) business. Still, I’ll base my judgement on what I’ve seen and although I reckon he’ll get the distance, I can’t be 100% confident. Doesn’t stop me putting him nr 2 on my list though! His 2 victories in the spring of 07 and judging by how well he was going when falling last year make me think he’ll get the distance as well as any and better than most.
#258
January 24th, 2009 12:47
For some strange reason black apalachi has drifted out to nearly 70s on betfair this morning . very strange … hes a horse that needs to be kept on the right side of … theres usually no smoke without fire however so i wonder if there is a injury scare there – if the horse is fine seems a ridiculous price…..
#259
January 24th, 2009 13:56
Its great that we all have different views and i learnt from last year that if you try to hard to get people to side with you they get upset.I find it very hard to put my views across and don’t want to upset anyone this year.When the weights come out i will post my shortlist and then wait to see what these horses do in there preps races before the big day.Roll on the 11th feb when we can get stuck in!!
#260
January 24th, 2009 14:13
Oh dear not good news about black apalachci my only bet so far, hope its only a scare,
as pre weights! I still fancy his chances.
Think this french bred stat is as with all stats is valid until its not, as wacky said. its true they don’t breed them for stamina and is always a consideration in the back of my mind. The fact that BC has american parents bred in france doesn’t fill me with a sense of relief, what are they bred for? I’d imagine it will just run! ha, ha
#261
January 24th, 2009 15:02
I’m trying to keep the faith and see through the mud this year, having never looked at this race sooo early, with the Denman senario and cheltenham being a long 23 days before its hard work at this stage.
Heres a question, does anyone know the history of the amount weights have gone up between announcement and race in relation to the winner and bottom weight, or something like that, I’m sure theres a mega stat in there somewhere, no?
Well, I’m gonna leave that mathematical ultimate formula/ polyhedron making to you guys and concentrate on watching the horse itself in the next month! got Hal and Star de M to watch today, like both but weights likely to be high. Hal is a good weight carrier tho!
I have to remember that I have to zone out to zone in, having got so many GN winners, I’ll just try and get those ‘feelings’ going!
#262
January 24th, 2009 15:09
oh and Hot Welds return at doncaster today
#263
January 24th, 2009 16:26
After Himalayan Trails poor run on Tue I put Joe Lively in my top 6 for Aintree. If Denman turns up I think this fella deserves the maximum of respect . His jumping is outstanding and he beat some decent horses today . Granted , everything was in this horses favour today in terms of the track and the ground but i reckon he could be put up to nearer 160 after that so i bet hell still have less than eleven stone if Denman turns up. If denman does not turn up then i fear he will have far too much weight . one to keep a serious eye on
#264
January 24th, 2009 17:18
To be French or not to be french, that is the question ….
Looked up Butlers ancestry.
Poliglote, sire – Strictly Cool, dam
I
Saddlers Wells,sire – Alexandrie,dam Bering,sire -Strictly Raised
(french) (1/2 french)
A bit rudimentary but I make it Butlers is about 3/8 french.
#265
January 24th, 2009 22:23
Am I the only person on here that rates Character Building’s chances?
Finished a good 3rd today over hurdles. Here are the comments in the Racing Post race analysis…
“Character Building was presumably running here in order to preserve his chase rating for a tilt at the Grand National. He had won on his last outing over hurdles and despite having been upped 10lb since, was still able to compete from a 10lb lower mark than he is currently rated over fences. He put up a sound run in defeat over a trip short of his best and remains bang on course for Aintree in April.”
He is a 9 year old, rating of 140, 3rd in a Hennessy to Denman, 2nd in the 4m Chase at the Festival to Butler’s Cabin. Out of the top 4 only once in a 17 race career.
Anybody else at all rate his chances?
#266
January 25th, 2009 09:33
Stephen, I’m also very interested in CB. If the Eider does turn out to be is prep I think he needs to win it. Is the Eider a grade2? Also a bit worried about whether he’ll make the cut. Incidentally the Eider could once again be a good pointer to National as I think Rambling Minster is intending to run.
By the way, from previous post it looks a bit confusing but it’s Alexandrie who’s French and Bering who’s half french in Butlers bloodline.
#267
January 25th, 2009 10:26
Shame Hot Weld didnt turn out yesterday. Think he may need to be scratched from the equation….
#268
January 25th, 2009 10:40
Yes Crisp the Eider is indeed a Class 2 race. At the moment he seems to be on the cusp of everyones trends. Going off the trends kindly provided by systemsman somewhere above…
1. OR 136 to 144 (10/11 trend)
CB – rating is 140
2. RPR rating 144minimum (9/10, 10 from 10 by 15th Jan)
CB – Best RPR is 143
3. Won chase value £17,000 or more (11/11)
CB – Won chase worth £9,760
4. 3 Chase wins (any type) or more (9/10, 10/10 by 19th Feb)
CB – 2 Chase wins
5. Age 8 to 12 (12/12)
CB – Age 9
6. Completed in 10 Chases (9/10, 10/10 by 15th Jan)
CB – Ran in 9 chases
7. Won over 24f or more (11/11, 9/11 at 25f or more)
CB – Won over 26f
8. Won Class 1 or 2 Chase-any type (11/11)
CB – Won Class 3 Chase
9. TS rating minimum of 111 (12/12, TS 128 or more 7/11)
CB – Best TS of 130
Like I say, he is on the verge of 5 of the 9 trends above. If here were to win the Eider he would fit into atleast 8 of them if not the full 9. In addition, he has been placed in a Hennessy and ran in a “National”.
I just think we should keep an eye on him as no one really seems to have mentioned him apart from Crisp and myself.
What are everyones views?
#269
January 25th, 2009 11:11
Sorry guys but unless CB can win a £17,000 chase its only running for a place in my book.But like i said before COD wasn’t high on anyones list until it won the Eider.I have one word for today and it is SUBLIMITY……….
#270
January 25th, 2009 11:21
daniel i think with great regret i agree with you about hot weld. it aint going to happen is it.has not run now for 21 months and even i with him as my no 2 on list have to move on.
#271
January 25th, 2009 11:25
hi wacky, i really value your input on this blog but we cant agree on ote at the moment. (butlers cabin) you have to be more BRAVE my little inca.
#272
January 25th, 2009 11:46
Hi All – not posted this year yet but excellent banter like last year. Can someone clarify the Top Speed requirement – should we be looking for the minimum top speed over the horses history, for example does a hurdle race count?
#273
January 25th, 2009 12:44
Character Building is entered in the Red Square Vokda Gold Cup at Haydock on 14th February (see Racing Post website)
CB has been found wanting in a finish at Cheltenham recently, although a flatter track like Aintree might suit him better
#274
January 25th, 2009 13:35
Hi Ryme NO Reason,You have to except that we all can’t see eye to eye about everything all the time.If we did the bookies would have to make BC odds on fav for the race as they wouldn’t have any opposition!!!Keep trying all you never now i may change my mind!!!Ha Ha Ha
#275
January 25th, 2009 15:54
Character Building has to win a Chase of £17,000 or more to be in any short list (he also need a better RPR – essential)- now if he was to win the Eider anything is possible but only if, a bif if (with a RPR of 144 or more).
#276
January 25th, 2009 16:29
Been re reviewing the fild again and had a look at my old friend Parsons Legacy that I and others had for the short list last year
Profile Parsons Legacy
OR 146 (possible 10.11 or therabouts if 135 is 10.00 without Denman)- winning weight.
RPR best 155 (very good)
TS best 141 (very good)
Won Class 1(39K) and C2 HC(this year) so passe the 1st, 2nd or 3rd in GN year test)
Won 4 Chases from 21 runs (has the experiance and wins)
Age 11 (still a winning age (just)
Won over 26f (good)
3rd in Scots Nat 07
5th in 2006 Henessey
Not a bad profile is it – now what do you think out there? – I would really like to know.
P.S. He’s Irish – not French!!
Available at 33/1 in the High Street (a winning price at this stage)
#277
January 25th, 2009 17:00
nothing new though is it systems,we all were primed last year and indeed this but the only chink is IF he runs again.if so i am sure 75% of us will be on him. got burnt last year anti-post so waiting as i dont think he will or never will run the gn.think that may be down to the owners.
#278
January 25th, 2009 17:24
Systems, Parsons is in my list at the moment. Great Hennessey and National run in his locker. Recent chase he pulled up in was on ground he didn’t like, I dont think there is an injury problem(does anyone know?)He seems a bit fragile but horses like him have won before(Aldaniti,Miinnehoma etc.) Hopefully top OR is 160 plus and he’ll carry under 11st and have a cracking chance. llyr olds have a good record but have the current longest losing streak of 8-12 yr olds in the race so perhaps this is the year!(I know it’s not scientific but this was one of the final reasons I put Amberleigh House in my very shortlist in 04, 12yr olds hadn’t won for nine years)
#279
January 25th, 2009 19:47
hi guys another great threat wacky systemsman and silver birch are true legends …………. i’m not a horse type but love the national each year ive got an early bet on butlers cabin on reading this just one question has arisen after googling some of the top contenders this year ….
for those fancying hear the echo yes an irish national winner but is 4 falls from 18 starts (i think) an issue to add to the equation.
#280
January 25th, 2009 21:34
A “wait and see” on Parsons. If he runs and has 10.something I would want him on my list.
Getting very hard to see anything to give Butlers Cabin’s profile a run for his money (such a low weight IF he gets in on 10.00 and so much class). I’am still working on that new review.
Silver Birch is right to put these two in the list (my order after Butlers Cabin or 135):
2. Hear the Echo OR 145
3. Black Appalachi OR 146
+
Himalayan Trail OR 141(will run if Denman does not it would appear)
Sorry but they are all short priced (33/1 or less in the High Street).
But I think we are now waiting for the weights and a good run or two from a few after the weights (the Eider will be most revealing)are published – a 1st, 2nd or 3rd this season is very important.
#281
January 26th, 2009 12:18
Just a point regarding Hear The Echo. I know this horse is an 8 year old but if you look at its date of birth it is 26th March 2001. Now come Grand National day the horse will only have been 8 for 8 days – is this not a concern? If I am reading too much into it then apologies!
#282
January 26th, 2009 14:22
My only issue with Parsons Legacy is that he will not only need genuine good ground, but he might not even line up if it is Good-Soft. With the time of the year and the watering, Gd-Sft looks the most likely ground most years now, so that would be off putting, which is a shame, cos he was my biggest antepost bet back in August/September and at 120/1 stands to make me a fair bit of wonga!!
#283
January 26th, 2009 15:43
I had an Ante Post bet on Parsons last year and then he didnt line up so can’t have another one with what happened last year. My concern as well with Parsons is the ground and also he has only had 2 runs this season. I know there is plenty of time for another run but no entries on Racing Post at the moment. As an 11 year old this would be its last chance so maybe connections will go for it. He would need to put in a decent run in though between now and the big day if I was to back it.
#284
January 26th, 2009 21:33
Almost completed my new review and have found a surppise entry for the short list (almost a perfect profile). I know Brain will be pleased. Any gueses before I post the results soon?
I am surprised how short the short list of possible winners is – around 9 or 10 with good trends.
P.S. Denman is entered for the GN – confirmed today but dont worry its only to cover a possible early fall in GN or training upset (and he would still have to be fit for the GN!). Weights Day is going to look very odd.
#285
January 26th, 2009 21:39
And Silver Birch will be pleased – we are almost in agreement with the short list.
Come on I’ve made it easy now: the mysetery short list horse is? Tip: see my December notes.
I think things are just about getting a little clearer for a serious short list at this stage (but will they all run?).
#286
January 26th, 2009 21:44
Its not Southern Vic is it Systemsman? Just had a look at its profile and ticks all the right boxes. My only issue is that it has not run in an Irish, Welsh, Scotish Nat or Hennessey.
#287
January 26th, 2009 21:50
….next guess High Chimes
#288
January 27th, 2009 02:40
Glad to hear you’re in good health again Systemsman.
Now..as the Americans would say…post up that updated list already
#289
January 27th, 2009 09:59
I think as Dan says Systems man – is the mystery horse Southern Vic ?- could be argued hes a dark horse because we never realy saw what he was made of at aintree becuase he unseated at the canal turn , therefore he could still be well handicapped.. is this the correct answer – great to hear we are thinking alike or very close on the short list .. looks like the same suspects keep popping up
– so assuming they are entered today its maybe time for another quiet dabble from me on betfair 2 night.. 
#290
January 27th, 2009 11:20
Well Systemsman out of the 3 that i said had the closest to a perfet profile im hoping its Garde Champetre and that it bypasses Cheltenham and takes its chance in the national.
#291
January 27th, 2009 11:31
Has anybody got any ideas on the rules of raising weights when a top weight withdraws? Read a few articles recently but none of them defined the exact procedure. Just wondering because back in 78 Red Rum, 11st 13lbs pulled out on the Friday night injured but, presumably because this was after the final declaration of runners, weights were not raised and top weight was 11st 6lbs. In 1980 a similar thing happened,I think top weight was 11st 9lbs, and again weights were not raised and top weight was only 11st 4lbs. Will Denman be kept in the race until such a late stage before being pulled out? Perhaps once the weights are out somebody will clear this matter up.
#292
January 27th, 2009 13:04
Dan and Silver Birch spot on – its Southern Vic – probably the best trends profile – have a look. Only betfair give odds on him at the moment. Anyone know any more?
Will post more on this later in the week.
#293
January 27th, 2009 13:30
Crisp,
The BHA website has a section on handicapping which deoesn’t answer the specific question but is quite interesting.
The Media pack for the GN available from the Aintree website has the answer in the ‘race conditions’ page – the last opportunity for weights to be raised is 9.30 am on the Friday before the race.
Any withdrawl of top weight after this point will leave weights unchanged.
I would imagine the lastest Denman would be withdrawn is the 48 hr stage for reasons other than injury. In this instance the weights would increase.
#294
January 27th, 2009 14:22
One of my concerns about southern vic is he only seems to run in winter on soft / heavy ground.
Will he enjoy running in April on good / good to soft ground.
Out of interest Systemsman what did Garde Champetre fail on on your re-assessment of the trends?
#295
January 27th, 2009 14:32
Admin and I discussed Southern Vic on the Becher thread. Cant remember why but we ruled him out I think
#296
January 27th, 2009 14:43
Thanks for that Gammers. I’m just thinking that perhaps the weights we see on weights day will be the weights whether Denman runs or not.
#297
January 27th, 2009 14:52
crisp 73 Says:
January 27th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Thanks for that Gammers. I’m just thinking that perhaps the weights we see on weights day will be the weights whether Denman runs or not.
I dont think that is the case Crisp, unless I have misunderstood what you are saying. The year Hedgehunter won there was a late withdrawl was there not, and he went up to 11_01 from 10_12. If Denman, or whoever else is top weight pulls out, they will change.
Or are you saying that you think Denman might only pull out 24 hours before?? Whilst I am not exactly the biggest fan of Paul Nicholls, im not sure he is that much of an ar5e!!
#298
January 27th, 2009 14:53
I would think unlikely. Personally the only two situations I can see where the Feb 10 weights remain unchanged are;
a) Denman runs – consensus is only if he does not complete the Gold Cup.
b) Significant event between 9.30am Fri and the off – injury to Denman or significant change in the going to make him a late NR.
For me the most likely scenario is Denman being officially withdrawn on 17 March, at the second forfeit stage and after the GC, tho Nicholls would probably let it be known over the preceeding weekend.
#299
January 27th, 2009 15:15
Is it possible for Denman to be rated lower than he should be so it is more of a compressed field.
I personally believe top weight will be rated about the 160 mark regardless of whether Denman runs or not. Which would mean bottom weight would have a rating of 136.
#300
January 27th, 2009 15:19
I do believe the handicapper has some discretion to make it a ‘compressed handicap’ although I am not an expert in matters of handicapping, so will let one of our more qualified residents take up the theme…
post 300 by the way!! Great work on the site Admin. Any thought of turning this into a forum, making it a bit more user friendly in the process?
#301
January 27th, 2009 15:56
Just heard some sad news. Slim Pickings broke a leg on the gallops and has been put down.
#302
January 27th, 2009 16:11
Brian – good debate about the compression of the handicap – i think denmans currently rated 182 so id be amazed if phil smith gives him 160 – thatd be letting him in a stone and a half lighter than his mark – surely there would be uproar everywhere – ive been guessing he will get 172 .. (hey admin what about a prize for the person who guesses denmans handicap mark correctly! -) this particular aspect of the national will be facinating as so many different judges have quoted a different number – i cant see phil smith going any lower than 170 ….
#303
January 27th, 2009 16:41
At 170 tho bottom weight would have a rating of 146. And i just cant see he will let that many horses run out of the handicap.
I think he is going to take a gamble on Denman not running and it will back fire (or not as he might be wanting Denman to run)
I’ll split the difference tho and go for 165
#304
January 27th, 2009 18:13
Having come second in the race the previous two years, Suny Bay was OR 169 (11 stone 13) in 1999 the year when Bobbyjo won (14 lb out of the handicap – bottom weight 10 stone OR 142 – 10 or more horses ran out of the handicap that year)
Surely Denman has to be rated at least 170?
#305
January 27th, 2009 18:18
What was Master Oats OR in the national he ran in having just won the GC?
#306
January 27th, 2009 18:21
173 is the answer. Why I asked rather than looking myself I dont know!!
This was in 1995 and he carried 11_10. The winner Royal Athlete won with an OR of 155 carrying 10_06.
Granted that was 14 years ago and the handicappers brief has changed somewhat since then, but on that basis I cant see Denman going off below 170, even if he puts in a bad run at Newbury next weekend.
#307
January 27th, 2009 22:36
Brian: “Out of interest Systemsman what did Garde Champetre fail on on your re-assessment of the trends”? I never said he failed or was not in the short list but I havnt yet confirmed it either!!
Wait just a few days and all will be revealed – I want to do a prpeper job when I post the new review.
#308
January 28th, 2009 11:16
Garde Champetre is right on the money trends wise, but I think the Cross Country at Cheltenham will be his aim, as opposed to the GN, and if he runs a big race there, then it is hard to see him being in the frame come Aintree, or so I think anyway.
#309
January 28th, 2009 13:07
Excellent comments Daniel about Garde Champetre (great trends but a X country specialist and will want to win at Cheltenham) which I agree with.
#310
January 28th, 2009 14:10
I wish I had realised that before I had my ante post bet in September though!
Still, there’s always next year
#311
January 28th, 2009 14:24
so does noone think the 23days apparently between events will increase cheltenham runners chances
#312
January 28th, 2009 14:38
Its actually 22, with the GC now the Friday as opposed to the Thursday of the old 3 days festival (my mistake)
I think it may well help this year, but I still think it is a big consideration. It has been a 3 week gap before, and yet still only Seagram since 1934 has won at the festival and gone on to win at Aintree.
Anyway, the entries have just been announced. Anybody lost any antepost bets? I lost my small one on A New Story, but I was resigned to that a while ago anyway. Bewleys Berry not entered. Anyone noticed any others not entered that they are surprised by.
I see Eurotrek is entered. Real shame for him he’s been out injured for so long, because he always looked a National horse to me. 13 now though and without a run for a good 2 years…
#313
January 28th, 2009 15:05
123 entries to work through – 3 six yo’s 7 seven yo’s and 3 thirteen yo’s so down to 110 already…
#314
January 28th, 2009 15:15
Denman and the National.
Does anyone think Denman will win the Gold Cup? I think Wacky said something earlier about things being against him. He’ll only have one prep run, only two horse in forty years have won more than one Gold Cup etc. And if Denman doesn’t win it, will he be more or less likely to run at Aintree? How will it affect other potential runners? Might trainers of low rated horses gamble all on Cheltenham thinking that they might not get a run at Aintree anyway or that they will be over a stone out of the handicap? Will all the classy horses stay in the National if Denman doesn’t run? Fascinating stuff.
#315
January 28th, 2009 15:24
arrrgghh!! I had ruled him out of the GN and then you go and say that!!
I think if he has a hard race and places, he wont run in the GN either. Whilst the stats for the GC are against him, he has looked special so far, and special horses break the stats.
That said, my money is on Kauto, unless Denman really proves himself on Saturday week, in which case, its up for grabs. Cant see past those two though
#316
January 28th, 2009 15:25
If there is ever a year horses running @cheltenham
can win the GN I think this could be it!
I think if a super horse runs at cheltenham it could definately place in the GN and maybe even win?!
I don’t mean Denman necessarily, isn’t a heart op serious?
interesting other class horses to consider.
I see War of Attrition is entered, any thoughts..
Don’t think Garde Champetre is better than Spot the Diff.
but I do have a soft ‘spot’ for him!!!
Eurotrek was a real national horse I followed too Daniel,
I am shocked with his entry at 13 after 2yrs out,
not kind is it.
Also see Silver Birch is in, after 2yrs out too,
bit younger but fragile legs ooohh!
can they have any chance? its unlikey previous winners even get a fair weight!
#317
January 28th, 2009 15:37
I think Eurotrek and Silver Birch are entered on a ‘lets wait and see’ basis. Silver Birch could be interesting, but as you say, a lot of questions marks also.
I am not an expert on the issue of ‘fibrilating hearts’ but somebody I talk to regularly is and she tells me it is a very big deal and many horses never recover properly. That’s why Denman has to win and win really well at Newbury to make me want to back him in the GC.
#318
January 28th, 2009 15:39
Once again I agree Daniel (re: Denman)”I think if he has a hard race and places, he wont run in the GN either. Whilst the stats for the GC are against him, he has looked special so far, and special horses break the stats”.
Gold Cup: Its Denman or Kauto Star so back both at 7/4 and 3/1 and win otherever wins of these two (the professional thing to do). I’am still with Denman to make it 2 from 2! (but i will have a saver on Kauto).
If Denman runs in the 2009 GN I am happy to get it wrong this year – no one can get 100%. But dont worry lads/lasses he wont!!!!!! Now next year (2010 GN)will be the REAL problem to sort out!
#319
January 28th, 2009 15:50
Southern Vic is the steamer lads and lasses ….the bookies are taking no chances with this one … only 25s and 33s now . the bookies are running scared of you systems man
#320
January 28th, 2009 15:58
See the GN 2009 entries list at:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/7856143.stm
Notable NON entries – wll not run (makes our job so much easier!)
Old Benny
Iris de Balme
Royal County Star
Irish Raptor
Glasker Mill
A New Story
Gypsey George
Intersting Darkness still in there.
#321
January 28th, 2009 16:09
high chimes, an accordion and over the creek out too…
#322
January 28th, 2009 16:21
The entries of these quality horses is confusing everything! In my opinion, the only one likely to run is Joe Lively and I reckon he may take his chance even if Denman pulls out. This would mean topweight OR = 166. Otherwise, it’s Cloudy Lane (159). So, if Joe Lively enters, Bottom Weight would be an OR of 142. This puts BC 7lb wrong, C.o.D. on 10-10 and my mate Hear the Echo on 10-3. Could we be looking at a back to back winner? Don’t think so, but Hear the Echo off 10-3 looks cracking to me! If he doesn’t run, Cloudy Lane will be topweight and I think I’ve discussed possible weights in this event.
With regard to Southern Vic, I can’t be having this one (see my post of 21 Jan). I’m all for protecting your handicap, but he’s not performed well in a 3m+ chase since Jan 06 when he won a novice chase! Surely you can’t consider him can you? For me, he’s not worth a pound of anyone’s money. Don’t do it!!!
#323
January 28th, 2009 16:26
Notelppa … good post.. made me laugh in relation to the southern vic bit . im going to have to apologise in advance
but i cant control my urges and i will b having a bet on southern vic.. hes just one of these hunch horses who coincidentally passes all of the main trends . if u look back to the thyestes 2-3 years back he was trying to give black apalachi nearly two and a half stone – yet when they turn up at aintree black ap might have to give away as much as 5 lbs – thats veering on nearly a 3 stone turn around at the weights .. ill be having a nibble . may god have mercy on my soul 
#324
January 28th, 2009 16:54
Oh well, live by the trends, die by the trends I suppose. How stupid will I look if he wins now? I promise not to post on next year’s blog if Southern Vic wins this year. I’d be too embarrassed! Poor fella has only come down 4lb since that Thyestes race 2 years ago (in which he fell) then unseated in the Becher (his only attempt at National fences) and then 3rd in when coming back in distance.
#325
January 28th, 2009 17:07
Hello chaps, sorry I haven’t posted for a while, but I’ve been away for a bit.
Nicholls was quoted as saying a month or so ago that if Denman runs a big race in the GC then he will be withdrawn from the Grand National entries. Can anyone honestly envision Denman not being placed in the top 3!?
I think Denman will win on his re-appearance and then take the Gold Cup, but it could easily be a harder run race than last year. Therefore, as stated in earlier posts, I can’t see Denman running in the National. With his withdrawal I think a few of the higher rated horses will also pull out, which I’m hopeful of because I think it’ll make it easier for us.
#326
January 28th, 2009 17:13
Notelppa, good point on COD. And Silver Birch would carry even less!
On the Southern Vic front the previous most recent winner I can find with a similar profile is Specify, ’71. Only two 3 mile wins with some good form in some good races, Specify also fell in his previous appearance over National fences, ’70 GN. SV wasn’t disgraced in the ’96 Lexus. Now if he won another 3 miler after the weights are released ….
#327
January 28th, 2009 17:16
Too right Jimmy. I think they’re talking about not entering him if he runs a big race. If he does, then great he’ll be scratched. If he doesn’t, you have to ask yourself why this is and surely he wouldn’t be right. In this case, there’s no way they’ll want him to lug 11-10 round 4 1/2 miles at Aintree with a dodgy ticker. Whatever form he shows on his return, they can’t justify his entry after his layoff and heart problems.
#328
January 28th, 2009 17:34
Goodpoint Crisp – i think sv could win the bobbyjo chase (3m) after the weights are announced .then hed qualify on all the trends from sys man and yourself… ill keep on dreaming…
#329
January 28th, 2009 17:37
Having looked at the entries and current OR’s im gonna go for Denman been rated for the National at 172 (had forgot about Joe lively and worked out the 165 on Cloudy Lane) as i cant see the handicapper putting Denman any higher than 6lbs above the second rated horse
I dont think Denman will run anyways regardless of his run in the Gold cup. Next year will more than likely be his year especially if only placed in the gold cup this year and not bidding for the hatrick.
Not sure Garde Champetre running at cheltenham is going to be that big a deal than most races run at cheltenham so going to have a good look at him in more detail.
The only problem were causing now is driving the prices down when a few people are agreeing on certain horses so im pleased if no-one agrees with me on Garde Champetre for the time being and those that do then shhhh for a bit lol
#330
January 28th, 2009 17:38
Crisp, the 06 Lexus was over 2 years ago and even if using this as a form line wouldn’t make me want to back him, beaten 5 1/2 lengths by L’ami at levels? If that’s supposed to be a ray of hope, it’s a slim one for a horse on 143! Still, the one thing he may have going for him is the fact that he might be carrying 10-1 so may not give any horse more than a pound. Could he beat C.o.D receiving only 9lb, Black Apalachi receiving 3lb or Hear the Echo receiving 2lb?
#331
January 28th, 2009 17:58
Looking through the full list all of the none french believers along wih the age trend then thats 37 horses already eliminated so far so that makes it a lot easier for you.
#332
January 28th, 2009 19:02
With the demise of Slim, it only adds to the view that
this is such a draining race, it takes its toll physically on horses that win or place.
Placing twice is no small feat, and the recent history of previous winners future in racing at all is poor. It takes a mighty machine.
Even with CODs totally smooth win last year and having potentially a decent weight this year, his reappearances have been poor and form is no.1 on my list,(other j/f my psychic antennae still not working, too much thinking) at his best he can win but for most horses once is enough.
KJC could be the comeback kid! connections happy with progress, running point to point sat. will see, well hear! then how he feels.
Is it true many horses may be having less prep runs this year with the frost and waterlogging courses have had?
Anyway, its hard to dismiss horses that have run well before in this race even if statistics say no way!
I am still considering Cornish and Mon mome as they have form and my only antepost bet I have is Black Ap.
I probably should be looking at 1st timers!
#333
January 28th, 2009 19:47
Notelppa “With regard to Southern Vic, I can’t be having this one (see my post of 21 Jan). I’m all for protecting your handicap, but he’s not performed well in a 3m+ chase since Jan 06 when he won a novice chase! Surely you can’t consider him can you? For me, he’s not worth a pound of anyone’s money. Don’t do it!!!”
What?
Sothern Vic has to be in any short list curently (I will post mine in the next few days).
Joe Lively will run in the Gold up for a place and lots of money then he will be withdrawn from the GN alng with Denman(or be too tired to win).
Back to Southern Vic
3rd in Jan 2009 in G2 Chase!!!(sign of a return to form. TS 139!)
Has won a Grade 1 Novice Chase (36K)
OR 143
Best RPR 159 (!)
Bets TS 146 (!)
Check out Oddschecker.com – a horse who only Betfair was quoting yesterday is now 25/1 – to 33/1 (thoes i the know think he can win).
I got 50/1 with Coral today – lump on while you can.
Its loking like Cloudy Lane (159)will be top weight on the day making:
10.00 OR 135 (imagine what Butlers Cabin wil do with this feather weight!! Note to all: his price is dropping already – 10 bookies with <20/1 now)
10.13 OR 148
Sothern Vic would carry 10.08 on OR 143 (a good winnable weight)
Notelppa think again!
#334
January 28th, 2009 19:53
28 horses aged 8-12 with an OR of 136-144. The fly in the ointment is the 7 horses rated 160+. May throw one of our favourite stats out the window.
Best guess at top-weight come race day SNOOPY LOOPY
#335
January 28th, 2009 20:00
According to RP website quotes about Nozic – he will almost certainly be entered for the National – OR 161
Which means Southern Vic on 10.06!
#336
January 28th, 2009 20:15
Systemsman the owner of joe lively is very keen on going for the national this year so it might not be a foregone conclusion he’ll not go.
Plus even if he does drop out i think other horses above Cloudy Lane will stay in so Butlers will either be running out of the handicap or not even make it in.
#337
January 28th, 2009 21:28
Brian a Pound ot two or three out of the handicap for Butlers is no problem.
Southern Vic was 129/1 nBetfair a few week ago now 24/1 tonight! (Coral offered me 50/1 today so try them first if any left tomorrow).
Silver Birch “Southern Vic is the steamer lads and lasses ….the bookies are taking no chances with this one … only 25s and 33s now . the bookies are running scared of you systems man”
I’ve said before the bookies miss nothing including this site but it is important to see where the money goes in the next 24hours and again on weights day (+ 24 hours) and the night before (and morning of)the race for clues (you would have found the winner in 2008 by doing this)
I think the aim is not that only one horse can win the GN but to have a portfolio of 5/6 which include the winner at the biggest price posible.
Brian “Systemsman the owner of joe lively is very keen on going for the national this year so it might not be a foregone conclusion he’ll not go”.
Dont we get this every year with many high OR potential runners? When he comes 3/4th in the Gold Cup (Joe Lively OR 166) or has had a hard run would they then want him in the GN just 22 odd days later?
#338
January 28th, 2009 22:17
Ur right systems man , u need about 5 or 6 horses if u want to hit the bullseye
REVISED LISTS AFTER TODAY
WITHOUT DENMAN WITH DENMAN
Butlers Cabin Black Apalachi
Black Apalachi Hear the Echo
Himlayan Trail Southern Vic
Hear the Echo State of Play
Southern Vic Joe Lively
Trabolgan
#339
January 28th, 2009 22:26
Your optimistic Joe Lively will place in the gold Cup is there summit you want to tell us systemsman lol.
But yes i know what you mean about it happens every year but i really think some high OR horses will stay in depending on when Denman drops out. Think some will think there on a good weight because of the Denman factor and then if he drops out at a late stage it could be too late to try and persuade the owners to drop out as well (if that all makes sense)
I have heard on the grapevine that from weights day some bookmakers are going to do 2 books on the national this year; 1 with denman and 1 without. Has anyone else heard this??
It could be a good thing for us who believe Denman will not run as we’ll be able to get slighter higher price by betting on the with Denman book
#340
January 28th, 2009 22:39
Looking at where the money has gone tonight these are the most likely winners of the GN 2009 (an alternatibe method to our trends)
Listed in two blocks (in rougth order) – those under 30/1 with Betfiar first (and the most likely winners)
Butlers Cabin
Notre Pere
Southern Vic
Black Aplaachi
Hear The Echo
Chelsea Harbour
Denman
Comply Or Die
Those listed over 30/1 – 50/1 on Betfair second
Priests Leap
My Will
Madison Du Bulais
Air Force One
Exotic Dancer
Imperial Commander
Simon
War Of Attriction
Star De Mohaison
Conan Castle
Food for thought – I really dont like the second block but the winner may well lie in the first!!!
#341
January 28th, 2009 22:45
Sorry try again with the right format
WITHOUT DENMAN / WITH DENMAN
Butlers Cabin
Black Apalachi
Himlayan Trail
Southern Vic
Hear the Echo
State of Play
Joe Lively
Trabolgan
War of Attrition
What about war of attrition .. ?? 80s on betfair tonight – or 163 – lets jusy say denman turns up and gets 172. then we have an ex gold cup winner hovering on the 11 stone marker… he could be the surprise package that nobody even considered.!!!
#342
January 28th, 2009 22:50
Out of the first block i like the look of BC, Southern Vic, Black apalachi, HTE and CoD (undecided about Chelsea Harbour).
I would also add Madison Du Berlais from the second block as well as Himalayan trail and Garde Champetre.
so thats a short list of 8 (possibly 9 with Chelsea Harbour) for me at the moment. Will get te list down to four just after weights day and then i’ll be looking for a reserve incase one drops out and a long shot for an each way chance.
#343
January 28th, 2009 23:28
I still feel ruling out Character Building could be dangerous.
He is on the verge of matching all trends. One win after weights day and he is bang in contention. I still feel he is now to be honest.
#344
January 28th, 2009 23:45
Good List Brian – similar to mine (not bothered by COD though).
The jury is out on Character Building until he has won a good Chase ths season.
#345
January 29th, 2009 09:11
seems like paul barber is beginning to shy away from running denman based on comments in the sporting life this morn …
#346
January 29th, 2009 10:01
I think with only 123 entries you may find less than the full allocation of 40 runners this year. There is much that will happen between now and the beginning of April
#347
January 29th, 2009 10:01
You can tell me he meets all the stats all you like, but until Southern Vic puts a good performance this season over fences, I aint backing him!!
#348
January 29th, 2009 10:06
Notelppa. What is your reasoning for criticising my praise for Southern Vic’s performance in the ’06 Lexus based on? Yes, he was beaten by L’Ami by 5 and a half lengths at level weights. So? L’Ami was a very, very good 3 miler. Let me refresh your memory. The previous season L’Ami had finished 2nd in the in Hennessey with
11-5, finished less than 12 lengths behind Kicking King in the King George and less than 11 lengths behind War Of Attrition in the Gold Cup. In that Lexus season 06-07 L’ami, receiving only 10lbs of Kauto Star was beaten by a neck in the AON chase, and then finished less than 13 lengths behind Kauto in Gold Cup. Anyway why do you choose to ignore that he also finished less than 10 lengths behind War Of Attrition in that ’06 Lexus?
By the way, Southern Vic also has the important ‘win in his last ten chases’, trend which goes back a long way with National winners. Personally I would want him to win another 3miler before I have a punt on him.
#349
January 29th, 2009 10:56
Thanks for the advice on Southern Vic. There’s no doubt he’s been a decent enough horse but he’s failed to finish in 2 of his last 3 chases. The exception being over 2m1f. His last win at 3m+ was over 3 years ago. If there aren’t one or two better jumpers with more stamina, I’d be amazed. Good luck to him though and if he wins it’ll be one for the stats. Having said that, people were saying the same for D’Argent last year but he was never going to be good enough over the distance and I’m glad I didn’t split my C.o.D. money on him and reduce my winnings. If you end up backing 7 or 8 horses, how much money can you make? I’ll say congrats to anyone who got a big price and laid him off for a profit or free bet though as if you make your money before the race, it doesn’t matter where he finishes.
#350
January 29th, 2009 11:03
He has only run twice beyond 3 miles, and failed to finish on either occasion (f/UR) so not only are there perhaps jumping question marks, we have no idea if he stays either!!
that is why I am not backing him….yet
#351
January 29th, 2009 11:35
I think the 8 Feb will be the day to decide on wether Southern Vic is worth a punt or not.
Speaking of D’argent i see he is entered into it again. Its hard to see what the Owner / Trainer think is possible to change after his run last year. Yes he was up near the front but then he had already started to fade badly before being hampered and unseated.
#352
January 29th, 2009 11:39
…plus the fact Alan King had previously said “He is not an Aintree horse” and “he hates the fences” or words to that effect. Look in the quote section of the RP website. they are in there. Luckily I spotted them before the race last year and ruled out accordingly.
#353
January 29th, 2009 11:57
Wow, such divided opinion on Southern Vic. Does anyone know his plans? I see he’s entered in the Hennesy. A place there would be interesting. That performance (if he runs) will be a massive pointer. My big concern at the moment is with my 2nd choice, Butler’s Cabin. My current guess is he’ll be 7lb out of the handicap (based on Joe Lively being topweight).
#354
January 29th, 2009 12:02
Im still working on the top OR being between 155-158. That’s what its been the last 5 years. What has it been in the years before that?
#355
January 29th, 2009 12:03
out of the 18 runners quoted by Ladbrokes for the Irish Hennessy, Southern Vic is 33/1. Only two horses are quoted bigger. Available at 55/1 on Betfair.
So people dont fancy him to run a big race there either.
#356
January 29th, 2009 12:16
Daniel Edwards Says:
January 29th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
Im still working on the top OR being between 155-158. That’s what its been the last 5 years. What has it been in the years before that?
Between 1997 – 2007 top OR has been 173, 170, 169, 153, 153, 158, 158, 155, 155, 156, 158
So there has been a trend recently that Top OR has come down from what it use to be but i wouldn’t work everything out on Top OR being round the 158 mark this year. There are some very likely runners round the mid 160′s this year.
#357
January 29th, 2009 12:17
Re top weight, I would think you have to take each year on its own merit. Denman’s entered so there’s no reason to think either that the handicapper will be leniant to Joe Lively or that he will pull out. Logic would say, therefore, that 166 is the figure. The lowest it will be is 159 (Cloudy Lane).
#358
January 29th, 2009 12:19
Ive had my own personal go as to how the morning’s newspaper will look on grand nat morning. I reckon WOA will run as then its a cert that HTE will carry less than eleven stone. I think the biggest problem for Butlers and Himalayan is whether they will actually make the cut.. !
hcap
160 war of attrition 11-12
158 joe lively 11-8
148 state of play 10-12
148 trabolgan 10-12
146 black apalachi 10-10
145 hear the echo 10-09
143 southern vic 10-07
140 character building 10-04
136 himalayan trail 10-0 will they get in ??
135 butlers cabin 09-13 will they get in ??
#359
January 29th, 2009 12:20
Thanks for that Brian. You are right about a lot of likely runners around the 160-165 mark this year. I may re adjust and make it 160-165.
#360
January 29th, 2009 12:25
Anybody with any interest in Cornish Sett? Like Wacky I’m very wary of the stat of unplaced horses coming back to win but.. there’s always a but!!
The last horse to do so was Rag Trade. Tenth in ’75, Rag was a rejeuvanted horse the following season and won the Welsh National before winning at Aintree (actually with 8lbs more thanhe had when he flopped the previous year), Cornish seems of a similar profile and has won the Bagder Ales and come second in Welsh National- virtually the best from of his career. Decent bloodline (Accordian)OR 144? I think, 140/10-10 last year. So he will probably be carrying a few pounds less this year. Has also won(dead heat) a Grade 1 over 20f so lots of speed there somewhere. True, he was receiving 8lbs from Notre Pere in Welsh National, beaten 7 lengths, but I think NP is going places(if its soft/heavy on ”Friday 13th” Gold Cup day then you might say a few ‘our fathers’/Notre Pere, to see your horse home!)
NB;Great race at Haydock on Sat 14th Feb. 28f. And weights will already be out!
Alan King seems to have ruled out Halcon, to be fair he’s not a very big horse, from National by suggesting the Scottish Nat is the one for him.
#361
January 29th, 2009 12:27
Birchy, 2 points – 1: Why would the handicapper drop Joe Lively’s mark when there are horses above him in the ratings he’d want to give a chance? 2: Topeweight is 11-10 not 11-12.
#362
January 29th, 2009 12:39
Notelppa – sorry I stand corrected – typo on WOA – should be 11-10 – ill change joe lively to 162 … i didnt realise his new mark was out already from cheltenham … 166 …! crikey – i think thats the end of his grand national dreams .. i think thats a tad harsh raising him to 166….
Draft 2
162 Joe Lively 11-10
160 war of attrition 11-08
148 state of play 10-10
148 trabolgan 10-10
146 black apalachi 10-08
145 hear the echo 10-07
143 southern vic 10-05
140 character building 10-02
136 himalayan trail 09-12 will they get in ??
135 butlers cabin 09-11 will they get in ??
#363
January 29th, 2009 12:48
Cornish Sett is one that is causing me some sleepless nights Crisp!!
Re horses being unplaced and coming back to win; it doesn’t happen often as a horse who is beaten is usually not good enough! However, I think he showed in the Welsh he is improving (only 8 last year) and he actually ran well last time before fading. So to me, stamina would seem to be his issue.
If you look at his Welsh National run, he was dropped way out the back and was given every chance to reserve every last drop of juice in the tank. This worries me for Aintree. Whilst KJC did this last year, he could only get up to finish 2nd and was out stayed by COD. By using these tactics, you are making it very hard for that horse to actually challenge for victory, as you are inevitably given the leaders a big head start. Plus there’s always the chance the tank will empty just as you come to the finish and the other horse you are racing with will stay on better.
For that reason, I don’t think I can back Cornish Sett, whether he meets the stats or not. If he is a decent price (bigger than 20s say) I may well have an ew bet though.
#364
January 29th, 2009 12:55
RE Handicap. I think the average spread of weight in recent years has been about 22lbs from top to bottom, 11-12 down to 10-7 last year, and the average point of making the cut from the day the weights are declared is about 80th place.(I think it was 19 lbs and 73 last year) Looking at the entries you would expect something of about 160 something running, so if 11-10 is 160 OR then bottom weight would be between 10-0/136 and 10-5/141.
#365
January 29th, 2009 12:58
I think people are looking for the KJC type
with southern vic, there are good and bad points in there,
nothing to add to this discussion really til weights day, maybe.
Silver Birch- I finally backed Cornish Sett e/w last night, a couple of us rated him as freshly invigorated from his breathing op. glad he got your attention too! tactics of coming from way back is a problem for several reasons and that is my only real reservation, IF he gets to the first horse in a fight for the line he will put his head infront!
#366
January 29th, 2009 12:59
correction- sorry Crisp you noted him
#367
January 29th, 2009 13:02
I vouch for Crips’ stats on looking at the top 80 to find the likely runners. Amberleigh House missed out by 1 the year he missed out, and he was numbered 81.
Top 70 will be safe
anything between 80-90 risky.
Above 90, forget about it.
#368
January 29th, 2009 13:28
Wel I took 50/1 on Southern Vic with Corals but and its a BIF but both Sourthern Vic and all the other hopefulls need.
1. A 1st 2nd or 3rd in a Chase this season at 25f or more so SV still need sto prove he can pace at 25f or more this season! (but I couldnt resist the 50/1 could I?). He next two races will tell but if he was to win (or a good 2/3rd) – what price then?
2. All short list runners need a win in their last 10 runs (still time ofcourse to do this) 20/21 trend.
SILVER BIRCH like your ammended weights list (but i still think Joe Lively will be taken out after the Gold Cup – it will be a hard and very fast run taking a lot out of any horse however good).
#369
January 29th, 2009 13:30
kj Says:
January 29th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
I think people are looking for the KJC type
with southern vic, there are good and bad points in there,
nothing to add to this discussion really til weights day, maybe.
Think the 8 Feb will be more important for the discussion on Southern vic rather than finding out what weight he will be given.
The thing that is now going thro my head regarding Southern vic is im sure he is a half brother to CoD (not sure if this is correct but its just niggling away at the back of my head whenever i think about him)
Daniel Edwards Says:
January 29th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
I vouch for Crips’ stats on looking at the top 80 to find the likely runners. Amberleigh House missed out by 1 the year he missed out, and he was numbered 81.
Top 70 will be safe
anything between 80-90 risky.
Above 90, forget about it.
I second that. i’ll only be putting Ante post bets on horses who are in top 70. Below that its a waiting game.
#370
January 29th, 2009 13:37
So as it stands Butlers Cabin is joint 83rd with 6 others. If Butlers was to scrape in how is it determined out of the others rated 135 who gets in first?
#371
January 29th, 2009 14:02
don’t want to be pedantic here Brian but I did say weights DAY..all points made for and against Southern Vic have been made and made well, I am also waiting to see him run again and prove he is on the up.
Just looked at latest odds- Black Apalachi coming in.
Notre Pere was definately not running according to trainer a while ago, if any of you missed that, being 7 anyway I doubt the support for him is coming from us lot.
#372
January 29th, 2009 14:10
kj Says:
January 29th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
don’t want to be pedantic here Brian but I did say weights DAY..
Yeah i understood what you said KJ.
What i said is the 8 Feb (southern Vics next run out) will be more vital to wether he has a chance to win or not rather than waiting another 2 days to find out his weight. I think were all agreed on Southern vic needs another good run to convince us all regardless of what weight he is given.
#373
January 29th, 2009 14:15
sorry I thought weights day and his next run were on same day, my mistake
#374
January 29th, 2009 14:16
Dan Says:
January 29th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
So as it stands Butlers Cabin is joint 83rd with 6 others. If Butlers was to scrape in how is it determined out of the others rated 135 who gets in first?
They re-assess the OR of all horses on the same mark nearer to the day. So if Butlers Cabin OR on the day of re-assessment was 140 and there were others who were re-assessed as 142, 136, 133, 132 then BC would be 2nd of the current 135 brigade.
Hope thats explained it clear enough, if not im sure someone else can do a better job than me
#375
January 29th, 2009 14:18
kj Says:
January 29th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
sorry I thought weights day and his next run were on same day, my mistake
No problem KJ. Weights day is 10 Feb with it being announced on the 11 Feb.
#376
January 29th, 2009 14:30
War of Attrition would interest but is likely to be too high in the weights surely?
State of play keeps appearing in Birchys list could be an interesting one to discuss..
#377
January 29th, 2009 14:33
Thanks for that Brian.
I can’t see Butlers getting in off 135 and I have already some money on it but we will see.
Cornish Sett is also giving me a headache.
#378
January 29th, 2009 14:49
Don’t worry folks, I know you must think I’ve lost my typing hand in an industrial accident for not contributing a revised shortlist to the thread as yet; but actually just taking some time to digest the entries and the associated stats.
Revised shortlist should be sorted early next week!
#379
January 29th, 2009 15:28
Re; State Of Play. Fantastic profile but he isnt a very big. I would think that he would only run if he had under 11st on the day.
#380
January 29th, 2009 15:48
Another thing with State of Play – he needs time between races (see Quotes on RP) and if he were to run in the Gold Cup it might ruin his chance completely – if he misses Cheltenham and has under 11 stone I think he has a great chance
#381
January 29th, 2009 16:01
re State of Play agree with most of the comments above – if he gets in with under eleven stone and actually turns up then other than the OR blip im sure he passes every other major stat….and hes already been placed over 25 furlongs this year — from a stats angle hes hot , but fully understand some of the subjective viewpoints above
#382
January 29th, 2009 16:03
Regarding Irish Hennessy – in fairness 6/4 shot Neptune Collonges is rated 31 lb higher than 33/1 shot Southern Vic (according to RP) and they will be racing at levels
#383
January 29th, 2009 16:23
crisp,daniel and dan i fancied cornish sett after last years race as ithought he ran well considering just had wind op. and trainer said he really could have done with a prep race but gave him his chance.ran and jumped well so this year prep.looks better and i can see him running into a place.backed him 16/4/08 w.hills and got odds of 100-1.dont buy into finished last year cant win next,but a place would do.
#384
January 29th, 2009 16:34
I dont remember fancying him last year, just for the record!!
#385
January 29th, 2009 16:41
wasn’t saying you did touchy edwards,but i read your posting today and read that maybe you do this year or at least caught your eye for consideration.my mistake for the record.
#386
January 29th, 2009 16:51
#387
January 29th, 2009 17:07
On CURRENT RPR, Or and age, by my rough calculations it is down to just 27!!!
A lot of horses dont have their RPR listed at present though
#388
January 29th, 2009 21:04
Follow the Market – an alternative to trends (or use them together as I will).
Market Movers since last night.
Big changes are:
1. Black Apalachi now 20/1 or under with 16/16 bookies quoted. This is the biggest market change by far tonight plus some last night)
2. Butlers Cabin now <20/1 with 15/16 bookies quoted (I did give warning this could happen. Change last night and again tonight)
Some small change (down) also on:
War of Attriction (last night and tonight)
Milko De Beauchane (last night and tonight)
Some very small change (down) on:
Kilbegggan Blade (last night)
King Johns Castle (last night)
Parsons Legacy (tonight)
Endless Power (tonight)
#389
January 29th, 2009 21:06
Will try to post my new short list tommorow night (I will have the do the work now!!)
#390
January 29th, 2009 22:53
Interesting stuff, as usual Systems, especially concerning Black Apalachi. He’s 8lb higher than when he won Becher and trainer said afterwards he would want it soft, could be a non runner on good ground?
#391
January 29th, 2009 23:03
Re: Black Apalachi who should get in on 10st something. Anyone know when was the last time the Becher Chase winner won the GN in the same year if ever?
Is there any logic to the Becher Chase winner not winning the GN in the same year other than it not happening very often (if at all?). May be this is the year, as Black Apalachi fits the main trends and the money is clearly going on so far.
#392
January 29th, 2009 23:18
I’ve just gone thru the 123 horses that have been entered and applying age 8-12,no french breds,number of runs which is normally 4-6 so any unraced so far crossed out,won at 3 miles and a £17,000 chase and have been left with about 12.Now need there weight and OR plus the number of runs they will have before the big day.I think i,ve found 1 that we maybe very interested in but will try and find out a bit more before i get shot down in flames!!!
#393
January 29th, 2009 23:43
Nice work Wacky – cant wait for your list. I have 11 on my list but i too need another day for more research.
Slowly getting there I think? Anyone else got down to 10 or so?
#394
January 30th, 2009 00:25
Great work everybody,really enjoying everybodies opinions,just wondered though if we should discount french breds on account that the stats tell us they dont win,what about the stat that says 9 of the last 10 Grand National winners are Irish bred with the exception of Red Marauder who won what i thought was a non event National from a stats point of view due to most of the jockeys not wanting to race in the attrocious conditions that prevailed in that year.
#395
January 30th, 2009 11:39
Becher chase winners who ran in the National in the same season,
95 Into The Red, 11yr old, 125 OR in becher- 149 in Nat, 16lbs o/h, 5TH in Nat @ 20/1
96 Young Hustler, 9 , 164 – 166, 5TH @ 8/1
98 Samlee, 9, 133 – 143, 10o/h, 3RD @ 8/1
99 Earth Summit, 11, 157 – 156, 8TH @ 16/1
00 Feels Like Gold, 12, 126 – 134, 30 o/h, 14TH @ 28/1
04 Clan Royal, 9, 126 – 134, 2ND @ 10/1 co fav
06 Garvivonian, 11, 130 – 138, P-UP @ 11/1
07 Eurotrek, 11, 147- 154, P-UP @ 16/1
08 Mr.Pointment 9, 146 – 155, P-UP @ 25/1
Appears as though handicapper always comes down to heavily on becher winners. Good news for Black Apalchi fans is the two that placed were heavily backed so a good sign if BA continues to attract money.
#396
January 30th, 2009 11:50
Anybody interested in Rambling Minster? I think he could be a better prospect than Kilbeggan Blade though, granted he was beaten by the Blade, course specialist, at Sandown. As I put in earlier post look at Tommy Whittle last season. Minster gave weigh away 9lbs to Cloudy Lane(over his best distance) and 7lb Comply Or Die, beaten less than 10 lengths. Like the Blade, may be still a little bit too prove class wise?
#397
January 30th, 2009 11:53
Correction in earlier post, Feels Like Gold was not 30 o/h not in 2000 but in ’99 when he came 5th!
#398
January 30th, 2009 12:16
mornin,respect due to all hard work,
my list at mo is,
black apalachi
kilbeg/blade
s.vic
h.t.echo
darkness
ramb minster
endless power
him/trail
cornish sett.
think butlers cabin the one if gets in,also around that or i think?
king harold
nadover.
think char/bld work to do.
parsons legs a bit dodgy.
can u advise where get latest or,4 list.
cheers,keep up great work.
#399
January 30th, 2009 12:19
Regarding GARDE CHAMPETRE’S running at Cheltenham and then Aintree,Silver Birch finished 2nd in the very same race and then won in 07,far from being a negative it could well be a positive!
#400
January 30th, 2009 17:38
Well someone had to be the 400th post, so I’m going to make it myself. It just goes to show how dedicated everyone is to the site and helping each other via sharing knowledge and tips (and just to think it’s still just over 2 months to the race).
Just a word of concern, I hope no one is taking information from this site and exhanging it with other forums (or the worst being on the BBC 606 section). The more people in the know the quicker the value goes.
#401
January 31st, 2009 00:00
Slight delay – my revised short list will be posted Saturday morning. I have a short list of 11.
Note on price movement.
Butlers Cabin now <18/1 with 16/16 bookies on Oddschecker.com (did I not say this would happen?).
Both Hear The Echo and Black Apalachi continue to attract support- all 3 shoud be in any short list and deerve to be leading contenders.
There is only ONE hosre with a perfect trends profile so far and its not the three above – all will be revealed tomorrow!!
#402
January 31st, 2009 00:57
The PERFECT trends profile eh!! So is that including the French trend or not cos if its not then can you wait til the afternoon before releasing the info cos i can still spot a bit of value in one horse buts its sad to see how quick the value is going on certain horses especially at this early stage.
On another note someone mentioned about trying to find the next Kings johns castle. Well there is one horse who fits a very similar profile to KJC and thats the spookily liked name of Conna’s Castle. Not a profile to win but could easy get a place if it can go the distance (but that is a big if like it was with KJC last year).
#403
January 31st, 2009 11:41
note Denmans odd for the national have lengthened …. 9-1 to 11-1 today with butlers cabin shortening.
my list as a total non-racing type just looking at a few of the trends still more work to be done on it :
Southern Vic
Chelsea Harbour
Simon
Hot Weld
War Of Attrition
Kilbeggan Blade
Preists Leap
Character Building
Black Apalachi
Butlers Cabin
Joe Lively
#404
January 31st, 2009 11:43
still don’t like the fact that hear the echo has had something like 4 falls from 18 or so starts?
#405
January 31st, 2009 12:11
Brian in order for you to get your bet on at a good price I will post my review sometime between 12.30 at 1pm – hope this helps. Yes the price does drop sometimes afer we post here.
#406
January 31st, 2009 13:19
Cheers Systemsman. My bet on and even better managed to get a free bet token whilst placing it so got another selection to make within the next 7 days (or maybe just more piled on the same one) cant beat a free bet on the national
I managed to get 40′s on my selection and already seen some places drop the price today down to as low as 25′s
#407
January 31st, 2009 13:47
ANE-POST GRAND NATIONAL 2009 SHORT LIST
Well here it is the new review of the Grand National short list. There are twelve runners on the list (if I have missed one please let me know).
These are the Nine trends plus an extra factor (*) used for the short list.
1. OR 135 to 144 1 + A, OR 144 148 1 point.
2. RPR 144 minimum 1 point.
3. TS 128 or more 1 point + B, TS 111 or more 1 point
4. Won Chase worth £17,000 or more 1 point
5. Age 8 to 12 1 point
6. Completed 10 Chases 1 point
7. Won over 25f or more 1 point +C, won over 24f 1 pont
8. Won Class 1 or 2 Chase (or Grade 1 /2) 1 point
9. 1,2nd or 3rd in a chase over 25f or more this season = * ( a key factor to shorten the short list)
10. Won in the last ten starts 1 point.
Maximum points are 9 ABC*
Note: Any runner still has time to get the * (or the point for 10 Chases if they are on 8 or 9 now)so update this list as you go along. There will probably be other runners with maximum points at a later date.
There is one, just one horse with maximum points at this stage but a few others who are close.
The short list.
9 ABC*
1. Garde Champetre
9 with three extra factors (in no order other than equal 2nd)
2. Butlers Cabin 9 ABC
2. Black Apalachi 9 BC*
2. Parsons Legacy 9 BC*
2. Kilbeggan Blade 9 AC*
2. King Harold 9 ABC
Any of the above could get maximum points if they come 1st, 2nd or 3rd in a race prior to the Grand National over 25f or more.
9 with two extra factors (in no order other than equal 3rd at this stage)
3. Hear The Echo 9 BC
3. Simon 9 BC
3. Southern Vic 9 AB
8 with three factors
4. Darkness 8 ABC (just needs another run for 9 ABC min so keep an eye on him)
8 with two factors
5. Himalayan Trail 8 AB (only 8 runs)
6. Chelsea Harbour 8 BC (only 8 runs)
As a runner reaches the maximum points you may wish to place a bet at the best odds.
My short list on December 18th 2008 was:
1. Butlers Cabin
2. Black Apalachi
3. Himalayan Trail
4. Chelsea Harbour
5. Parsons Legacy
6. Kilbeggan Blade
7. Iris de Balme
8. Endless Power
9. Garde Champetre
10. L Ami
11. Darkness
12. Southern Vic
13. Mattock Ranger
14. King Harold
Ten of the 14 are now in todays new short list – not bad was it (if I have got the winner that is!! – its a BIG if!!!)
Brain I took 40/1 on Garde Champetre with Ladbrookes yesterday – now watch it fall over the next two weeks! (still like Butlers Cabin as well- he just needs that all important 1/2/3rd over 25f or more from now to GN day whcih I am sure he can do)
Any more short lists out there?
#408
January 31st, 2009 14:21
My only concern with Butlers cabin at the moment is if it will get in. Already got a small bet on him so am just gonna sit back and see how it looks like developing for Butlers cabin.
Glad we were singing off the same sheet with Garde Champetre, was getting a bit worried a week ago when you mentioned Southern Vic instead. Like i said earlier im gonna wait til the 8th Feb for my final verdict on southern vic.
#409
January 31st, 2009 15:07
Whats going on with backing French breds?You may have got the price but you haven’t got the winner!!Just while im here im not sure about Kilbeggan blades chances as everytime its run in a grade 1 it has pulled up.I’ve got one thats not on anyones list but im waiting on the weights!!
#410
January 31st, 2009 15:17
Great work systemsman, nothing too suprising there.
I’m interested now to see wackys non french list
I’m sure he won’t be having any of Garde Champetre!
I am undecided on this chart topper,
had kinda ruled him out by comparing his career
to Spot the Difference who it has to be said just loved the cross country really and finished the GN twice.
Physically GC seems thin across the chest which puts me off for some reason, I’ve no doubt he should finish
and certainly has a big chance.
As usual with this race I know who will finish; traffic problems permitting, and who will fade away,
still awaiting divine intervention tho!!!
Hey wacky you must have a really short list, agree kilbeggan would have to run out of his little skin, can’t wait to see what your mystery horse is
#411
January 31st, 2009 15:36
wacky what took you so long.i knew it was only a matter of minutes before FRENCH BRED terminater was on the case. oohh la la
#412
January 31st, 2009 15:57
A French bred hasn’t won the race for a 100yrs so anyone that backs one isn’t playing with the STATS!!!As i’ve said when a french bred wins i will scrub that stat,but not UNTIL!!Good luck and i can’t wait to lay these horses at shorter prices on the day, so keep steaming in guys!!
#413
January 31st, 2009 16:56
just read that 8 out of the last 10 winners have been quoted odds of between 25-1 and 40-1 ante post at the beginning of february?
#414
January 31st, 2009 17:30
I am convinced that rambling minster has passed all the trends that you have set out systemsman, except for its ts is 127(only 1 short). Any reason why he,s not on your short list. Great work by the way.
#415
January 31st, 2009 18:27
It would be interesting to see how many french breds competing over the last few years have had such a good profile as Garde Champetre-i’d say not many-i think he’s a stand out contender and i’m glad systems man thinks so too. What about it Notelppa and Birchy?
#416
January 31st, 2009 18:32
Monkerhostin was fav for the race 2yrs ago and A P MCcoy has been on many a short price french bred.Keep clutching at those straws guys!!!! ha ha ha
#417
January 31st, 2009 19:13
Great analysis Systems. My only problem is that with a topweight at 11-10 and OR of at least 159 (probably 166), the chances are, the 135 – 144 range could potentially only cover horses from 7lb out the handicap up to 10-2. I’d say it’s dangerous to up the “score” of a horse due to the fact that it may be out of the handicap. I would suggest something like OR 135 – 148 = +1 plus an “A” for 140 – 146.
Pete. Totally agree with you, GC’s stats fit the trends really well. Not only that but his form is solid. I’d be happier, though if he were slightly less exposed. Does the fact that his mark’s been unaffected by a couple of good races at the backend of last year show the quality of what he’s beaten (Pass Me By, L’ami, hoo la baloo, Nadover, Drombeag)? I start with a shortlist of horses who fit the trends then pick who seem the most likely winners from there. I think we all agree, the winner is likely to fit the majority of the trends (otherwise we’re wasting our time)! That doesn’t mean that the winner is the one with the best trends profile, it means that if the trends continue, we’ve got the winner. Then the hard bit comes in placing your bets in such a preportion amongst those horses to make the most money. To do this, analyse the horses based on their form, weight, jumping, freshness, fitness, likelihood of being entered etc. etc. For me, based on Systemsmans great work, I’d say Hear the Echo is incredibly well in at the weights, Butler’s Cabin is the ideal type of horse and Black Apalachi looks a bit classy at the weight. Himalayan Trail and Garde Champetre look the best of the rest. Parson’s Legacy has missed his chance as has Simon, Kilbeggan blade won’t win neither will L’Ami, Darkness or Southern Vic. This cuts the list down to 8. Anyway, my top 3 currently are:
1: Hear the Echo
2: Butler’s Cabin
3: Black Apalachi
I’m well in on the top 2 already and will wait and see with Black Apalachi and may well have small savers on one or two others (looking like Himalayan Trail and Garde Champetre at the moment).
Another point I like to look at (not a trend) is the difference between the betfair price and bookies’ price on ante-post markets. For me, the bigger the difference, the greater the likelihood we won’t see the horse line up.
Sorry to waffle on, I’m off. Keep up the good work! That 25/1 – 40/1 business is interesting. Hope this is wrong, or I’m screwed!!!
#418
January 31st, 2009 19:13
alanham thank you – greta work. How did I miss Rambling Minster? who by the way has a perfect score of
9ABC*
He is OR 135 up to OR143 now (will he be able to handle any extra weight with a RPR of 147 best – its OK but I would prefer 149 +++ or at least one RPR 150 or more). However he must be placed in our short list. Did I miss any others?
Checked his price which is between 25/1 and 40/1 so that looks good for this time of year as well. I will be having some of that 40/1!
So we now have two perfect scores and 13 on the short list any of whom may still win (Wacky I never said its only Garde Champetre that could win by currently any of the 13 have a very good chance if Denman does not run).
A perfect score is what we need to find and so far there are just two with five or six very close who may qualify soon.
By the end of the Cheltenham Festival I am looking for a good short list of 5 if possible with 2/3 I prefer in that list. The 1,2 or 3rd in a Chase over 25f or more this season is a key “ice breaker” (I also have a few others)for the final list.
Wacky we will agree to disagee about the French Bred thing – there is no logic to it other than it not happening so far and as better French breds get entered so one day it will happen and I DONT clasify Butlers Cabin in this catagory unless we split French breds into two, those that have run in France at any time and those like BC that have not.
#419
January 31st, 2009 19:38
Great research everyone some really knowledgable good work just like last year. big thups up.
Best placed French bred horse since 2000:
2000: Mely Moss – 2nd @ 25/1
2001: Blowing Wind – 3rd @ 16/1
2002: Blowing Wind – 3rd @ 8/1
2003: Montifault – 5th @ 33/1
2004: Clan Royal – 2nd @ 10/1
2005: Royal Auclair – 2nd @ 40/1
2006: Clan Royal – 3nd @ 5/1
2007: Liberthine – 5th @ 40/1
2008: Nadover – 7th @ 125/1
Had blowing wind, clan royal and Royal Aucliar EW in all those years so french breds have been very profitable for me.
So far my portfolio reads:
Character Building 1pt E/W @ 33/1
Placed this in April 08 and now starting to think I’m probably looking at a good place chance with little hope of scooping the win, was expecting a big move for this horse but the money just hasn’t come which is very worrying. Still near perfect on the trends one good performance between now and april and it could be a different story.
Garde Champetre 2pts E/W @ 40/1
Yep I’m firmly on the bandwagon too. Placed on entry list day, have always like horse and as soon as I saw him on the entry list my money went down quick before the price tumbled. Stays longer than the mother-in-law, very sound jumper and as the price tag suggests has a nice touch of class to compete in this company. Given luck in running can’t see him out of the first 4 home. The Silver Birch parrallel is also very encouraging.
Southern Vic 2pts E/W @ 33/1
Not a horse I fancied at first but backed on the advice of a very knowledgable mate, also ran my trends through it and like its profile alot ticks most of teh boxes nicely. Irish trained always a bonus too.
Always have 4 or 5 running for me EW so will look to back 2 more after weights day.
Butlers is tempting but I still have reservations about a horse who is so eratic and tempermental.
Alanham has a good point I ran my trends on Rambling Minister and he seems a stand out pick so I’d like to hear anyones opinion on him? Particularly why systemsman doesn’t rate him?
On Hear the Echo I was always keen on this horse until I found out it has Strong Gale on the dam side, I’m not big on breeding personally but this is a huge minus as nothing with a strong gale influence has done anything in the national. Still it will probably be the one I fear the most on the day.
At the moment my watch list is will look to take two out of these to back:
Battlecry
Beat the Boys
Butlers Cabin
Companero
Conna Castle
Cornish Sett
Darkness
Fleet Street
Himalayan Trail
Ice Tea
Kilbeggan Blade
Notre Pere
Rambling Minster
If anyone has any solid information about why I should back or discard any of those it’d be most apprieciated, I’m sure quite a few from those will go elsewhere. I think I have to agree with Wacky on Kilbeggan not too hot on him, he does seem lacking the class at the top level, but on the other had he does seem to be a horse on the upgrade as he’s definitely improved on last year.
Lets hope we all do as well as last year as I reckon about 90% made a good profit last time.
Regards
Ian
#420
January 31st, 2009 19:41
OK that’s it I’m off to the bookies in the morning to lump into Rambling looks like only one more to find, great news
#421
January 31st, 2009 21:59
Brody – with regards to your watchlist I would comment as follows;
Battlecry – Only ever won 1 chase and needs minimum of 3
Beat the Boys – Not won a chase worth £17k
Companero – Not ran in enough chases, not won a class 1 race, not won a race worth £17k
Conna Castle – Not won over 3m and TS only 122
Fleet Street – Only ran in 8 chases and only 2 wins but time to get this right
Ice Tea – Not won a class 1 race or worth £17k
Notre Pere – Possibly will be too high in the weights
Hope this helps.
#422
January 31st, 2009 22:17
At this stage I feel:
Hear The Echo is the most likely winner
Character Building should be there or thereabouts
Also backed the following with small stakes on Betfair:
Conna Castle
Southern Vic
State of Play
Fleet Street
Once race week comes my ‘system’ is very basic – I normally draw a line through:
Age under 8 or over 12
No run in previous 50 days
8th or worse in last run
Carrying more than 11 stone 5 lb
Fewer than 3 runs in current season
French Bred
This normally leaves 6 to 10 runners for form analysis, which is manageable
Excellent website by the way – wish I’d found it last year I might have backed COD – ruled it out from short list due to blinkers – doh!
#423
January 31st, 2009 22:42
Hi systemsman,Im not knocking any of your shortlist my friend,im just trying to put another spin on things as its no good just going with your great work if i see a hole in a horses form.I have a shortlist which are Black Apalachi,Darkness,King Harald,Parsons Legacy,Preists Leap And Rambling Minster.With a few that with a good run or 2 may fit the stats and they are Southern Vic,Character Building and my dark horse Cane Brake.Could anyone let me know why this horse hasn’t been mentioned by anyone yet?Maybe im barking up the wrong tree!!Wouldn’t be the 1st time
#424
January 31st, 2009 22:53
Cane Brake has a good trends record but its OR of 155 will mean it will carry more than 11st. So going by the trends how will Cane Brake win?
#425
January 31st, 2009 23:11
Its down to run on the 8th feb and has no chance of winning against Exotic dancer,albertas run and the listener to name a few so its rating may come down!!Maybe i’ve got it wrong?
#426
January 31st, 2009 23:24
Anyway thats another day out the way and only 10 days to go before the weights come out.BRING IT ON!!!
#427
February 1st, 2009 00:26
I shall do a little more work and try to tell you my own short list of six from the 13 based on the trends I have given by Tuesday.
#428
February 1st, 2009 09:09
Hi Guys went away for a days point to pointing and cant believe all the activity i missed yesterday .. another fantastic piece of work systems man …. can i ask simlar to pablos comments how state of play fits in to the trends.?.. he must surely be in there as well. i count hes got 9bc and the only fly in his ointment is his or of 150 . im with wacky at the mo in that the backing of a french bred in the past has almost been tantamount to heresy in this particular field and im still not convinced its about to be broken this year . however garde is an interesting character and i will go away and check him out….dont want u guys sitting in the bahamas whilst im licking my ice cream cone on the front at filey telling everybody who’ll listen that french breds dont win nationals….
#429
February 1st, 2009 12:16
Thank you for some superb postings.
I am new to the site and will be looking to share my thoughts with you all over the coming weeks in the countdown to the Grand National. This is a race that I have had considerable success with in the past, and this has also been the case with the Cheltenham Festival, another arena where the trend have a strong influence.
Would anybody be interested in starting a thread on the Festival, and the leading races there.
#430
February 1st, 2009 12:32
Birchys Revised List after taking further stock ….
1. Hear the Echo – Needs to place in a 25f chase v soon
2. Black Apalachi – Must be thereabouts – 11lb rise may stop it winning but looks good for 1st4
3. Garde Champetre – assuming his Gallic influence doesnt influence anything must be top4 material
4. Southern Vic – being brought quietly along a la papillon style – must be watched
5. Himalayan Trail – needs to place in a 25f chase v soon
6. State of Play – classy beast – if phil smith drops him two pounds i think hes a 9abc* – does he have the necessary character for a fight like this though?
7 Other interesting ones worth watching
War of Attrition – Classy horse who might just take to this and even with big weight could go well .. royal auclair , suny bay , whats up boys – if they can do it so can he..keep fighting his cause sporty girl
Darkness – entered for the Haydock Gold cup – if he bounces back at Haydock he comes into the reckoning.
Butlers Cabin – I fear for him – i think its going to be a real struggle for him to get in off 135 now … will keep a watching brief but if he gets in cracking weight
Beginning to get more exciting now lads and lasses and things should firm up even more once we have the weights out and the haydock gold cup and eider are out of the way .. some great comments and analysis going on ..great stuff
#431
February 1st, 2009 12:34
SILVER BIRCH re:State Of Play – I excluded anything over OR 148 – you have to set a limit somehwere and this is higher than recent winners – much higher)or the list gets too long.
If Denman runs (can you hear me laughing!) then we would ahve to look at few on higher OR’s.
#432
February 1st, 2009 12:46
“Bring on the weights” – we fear nothing!
Like Siver birch says “the weights out and the haydock gold cup and eider” we will really sort the men from the boys.
So much depends on Butlers Cabin getting in on OR 135 and if he gets 9.13 (carries 10.00) or 10.00 (and I think he will by the way)then he really must have a great chance and will go off 1st or 2nd FAV. I would like to see him placed in a Chase (1/2 or 3rd) afer the weights are out.
Re: French breds. Brody has shown that in the lsat eight years there have been six years when a French bred was 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the GN – now I call that a HIGH % and a very good trend. So everyone its only a matter of time before a french bred wins the GN (I was on Clan Royal in 2006 who came close). The facts speak for themselves Wacky – IT WILL HAPPEN SOON!
#433
February 1st, 2009 14:21
Hi Guys ‘Can’t Buy Time’ shortening across the board.
Not touted much on here.
Any thoughts?
#434
February 1st, 2009 15:15
Just reading the superb post on here.
I will be adding my views over the next few weeks as the Grand National has always been a very succesful race for me. Trends also play a big part in certain races at the Cheltenham Festival, so it would be interesting to have a few posts in that respect during the next few weeks.
#435
February 1st, 2009 16:52
Well I’am back to the research for my short list which i will try to post on Tuesday, so i will reread every entry on here and from last year – so much really good advise – but easy to miss (563 last year and over 432 this year, should just about finish reading by GN day!!) or forget.
I have to say one of the best posts for me was from Brody showing that French Breds can win the GN and as French Bred has never been outside the top 7 to finish since the year 2000! (and if they have been that clsoe so often its only a matter of time – this could be the year. I did say the same think last year but was proved wrong but we still got the winner!!) and in six of these years they have been in the top 3 to finish – completly exploded the myth that French Breds cant win the GN – well done Brody. Butlers Cabins hopes live on!!!
#436
February 1st, 2009 19:24
Hi folks,
Slightly behind most of you but have completed my analysis, which is based on Denman not running, top weight having current OR 159 and OR 135 getting in.
Criteria for selection are 1) Age 8-12, 2) OR 135-148, 3) TS min 128, 4) RPR min 144, 5) Won over 24f, 6) Placed over 27f, 7) Prize money £17k min,
Min 8 chases, 9) Min 3 chase wins, 10) Won C1 / C2 chase, 11) Max 1 fall excl Nat fences, 12) Min 2 prep races, 13) Not novice.
So the shortlist in descending OR order is:
Mon Mome, Black Apalachi, Parsons Legacy, Simon, Garde Champetre, Rambling Minster, Himalayan Trail, Butlers Cabin.
Most of these have been reviewed in earlier posts, with the exception of Mon Mome. Interested to hear peoples thoughts on this one…
#437
February 1st, 2009 19:33
I posted here earlier that french breds had run well in the National and that perhaps none of them had got to aintree with the right profile. I would also like to add that recently we’ve had french bred Iris De Balme winning the 4 mile Scottish National, not sure if he was the first, but no french bred has won the National for a century. Personally I find it just as unusual that people dismiss out of hand horses who haven’t won a chase at 3 miles when we’ve had two winners in the past forty years and countless placed horses, a winner and four placed in the past eight years, who haven’t won at or over 3 miles – better record than french breds.
You need to cover lots of scenarios!
At the moment mostly following 1990- 2008 trends profiles. Reasoning is that fences were changed radically after 1989 race results since have been markedly different from results before, the main aspect being that no horse had carried above 11-1 or 12lbs more than bottom weight. 15 out of the last 18 winners had form in the hennessey, welsh,scots/ irish/ national or in a races over GN fences. Seagram, Royal Athlete and Lord Gyllene didn’t and they all won at least three chases at 3 miles or further and won over 28f or further.
Not ante post betting for me on Black Apalachi, it’s needs it soft/heavy just as it was in Becher and will be punished by handicapper,see earlier becher winners post, not a stopping weight in itself but probably too much for BA. I think somebody said that Garde Champetre was aimed at Cheltenham?
Looking at 11st’ish being 150′ish this year? Key shortlist at moment; Parsons Legacy, Hear The Echo, Cornish Sett, Rambling Minster. Thats quite short!
With so many on the comeback trail I’m thinking that this could be the story this year, many ifs, buts, keeping an eye on Hot Weld, Silver Birch (quoted as 148OR?), Trabolgan,Comply Or Die, State Of Play, Character Building,Southern Vic, Endless Power. Think L’Ami could be first home french breds. His victory today in Ireland gives him some very good trends!
#438
February 1st, 2009 20:49
Hi Showlad,I think that Can’t buy time has as much chance of winning as french breds do of winning the national and the twins of winning the Eurovision!!!Happy days
#439
February 1st, 2009 20:55
Hope you’re right on Garde Champetre; as i’ve mentioned before, I backed at 110 on Betfair in JULY 08!!
#440
February 1st, 2009 21:12
Hi Crisp – i reckon thats a really strong trend uve got there…
15 out of the last 18 winners had form in the hennessey, welsh,scots/ irish/ national or in a races over GN fences. Seagram, Royal Athlete and Lord Gyllene didn’t
Did u know that Seagram and Royal Athelete both ran in a Henessy and Lord Gyleen had run in in a midlands national
So if you tweak ur trends to :
18 out of the last 18 winners had either run in a hennessey,or form in a welsh,scots/ irish/ / midland national or in a race over GN fences.
Then take systems man list of 12 and apply crisps trends
it leave u with these 6 babys I think
2. Butlers Cabin 9 ABC
2. Black Apalachi 9 BC*
2. Parsons Legacy 9 BC*
2. King Harold 9 ABC
3. Hear The Echo 9 BC
5. Himalayan Trail 8 AB (only 8 runs)
#441
February 1st, 2009 22:56
Nice list Silver Birch and wont be far of my own short list I think.
Intersting 5 from the 6 (HTE was not in there)were in my first short list of 11 posted on Dec 18th based on pre Chritmas GN winning trends – I’am getting a very positive feel about all this now but still need to confirm my own short list about Tuesday (and after i have got some more money on)
Loved these to snipps.
Gammers “Placed over 27f (+ the other trends mentioned)
and
SILVER BIRCH “18 out of the last 18 winners had either run in a hennessey,or form in a welsh,scots/ irish/ / midland national or in a race over GN fences.”
Now thats what I call very useful information That I for one will use for my short list – a 18 from 18 trend just cant be ignored can it?
#442
February 1st, 2009 23:08
Place over 27f is 18/20 trend, but exercise some caution as Monty’s Pass and Red Marauder were recent exceptions.
#443
February 1st, 2009 23:44
Not 18 or 20 years I’m afraid but here are results of some form analysis of last 10 winners (the Irish era – 6 Irish winners, many with hurdle preps – 2nd, 3rd and 4th last year too)
Apart from Papillon, the last 10 GN winners produced a performance in public at or near their very best RPR within the previous 12 months of their Aintree success (and all had attained at least a 144 RPR)
Although Papillon hadn’t shown much in the previous 12 months he was punted from 33/1 to 10/1 in the 48 hours leading up to the race – a clue in itself (Southern Vic yet to show much either – same trainer – lightning twice etc?)
Bobbyjo: 1989 GN winner RPR 156; April 1988 Irish National winner 153
Papillon: 1990 GN winner 156; no decent form in 12 months prior to race (164 when 2nd to Bobbyjo in 88 Irish National)
Red Marauder: 1991 GN winner 145; January 2001 Ladbroke Chase 2nd 145 (best was Nov 98 Ascot Gold Cup 152)
Bindaree: 1992 GN winner 148; December 2001 Tommy Whittle Chase 3rd 144 (also achieved 144 3 times before)
Monty’s Pass: 1993 GN winner 162; September 1992 Kerry National winner 148
Amberleigh House: 1994 GN winner 154; November 2003 Becher Chase 2nd 154
Hedgehunter: 1995 GN winner 166; February 2005 Bobbyjo Chase winner 150 (best Jan 2004 Thyestes Chase winner 156)
Numbersixvalverde: 1996 GN winner 154; January 2006 Pierse Chase 4th 146
Silver Birch: 150: 2007 GN winner 150; March 2007 Sporting Index Cross Country Chase 2nd 150
Comply Or Die: 2008 GN winner 158; February 2008 Eider Chase winner 155 (also achieved 155 twice before in Hennessy and Royal & SunAlliance Chase)
Interestingly, the last 4 winners produced one of (if not their best) career performance in the 3 months before the race – with 3 of them putting up this performance after the weights had been announced – so, from a form perspective at least, patience might well be a virtue
Perhaps one or all of the Eider, Racing Post Chase and Haydock Gold Cup could be very informative
#444
February 1st, 2009 23:50
Sorry… years should be correct on this one
Not 18 or 20 years I’m afraid but here are results of some form analysis of last 10 winners (the Irish era – 6 Irish winners, many with hurdle preps)
Apart from Papillon, all produced a performance in public at or near their very best RPR within the previous 12 months of their Aintree success (and all had attained at least a 144 RPR)
Although Papillon hadn’t shown much in the previous 12 months he was punted from 33/1 to 10/1 in the 48 hours leading up to the race – a clue in itself (Southern Vic yet to show much either – same trainer – lightning twice etc?)
Bobbyjo: 1999 GN winner RPR 156; April 1998 Irish National winner 153
Papillon: 2000 GN winner 156; no decent form in 12 months prior to race (164 when 2nd to Bobbyjo in 98 Irish National)
Red Marauder: 2001 GN winner 145; January 2001 Ladbroke Chase 2nd 145 (best was Nov 98 Ascot Gold Cup 152)
Bindaree: 2002 GN winner 148; December 2001 Tommy Whittle Chase 3rd 144 (also achieved 144 3 times before)
Monty’s Pass: 2003 GN winner 162; September 2002 Kerry National winner 148
Amberleigh House: 2004 GN winner 154; November 2003 Becher Chase 2nd 154
Hedgehunter: 2005 GN winner 166; February 2005 Bobbyjo Chase winner 150 (best Jan 2004 Thyestes Chase winner 156)
Numbersixvalverde: 2006 GN winner 154; January 2006 Pierse Chase 4th 146
Silver Birch: 150: 2007 GN winner 150; March 2007 Sporting Index Cross Country Chase 2nd 150
Comply Or Die: 2008 GN winner 158; February 2008 Eider Chase winner 155 (also achieved 155 twice before in Hennessy and Royal & SunAlliance Chase)
Interestingly, the last 4 winners produced one of (if not their best) career performance in the 3 months before the race – with 3 of them putting up this performance after the weights had been announced – so, from a form perspective at least, patience is a virtue
So one or all of the Eider, Racing Post Chase and Haydock Gold Cup could be very informative
#445
February 2nd, 2009 10:11
Pablo, good observation. And 14 of the last 17 winners(didn’t have Mr Frisk info) had won with a higher OR than their OR at the time of the their last chase win. The three that didn’t, Bindaree, Papillon and Royal Athlete, all had an OR rating of between 4-6 below their all time best. Definitely something there…
Silver, had noted runs of Seagram in Hen etc, I was trying to build ‘criteria’ profile of winners but good point all the same.
On the weight front at least one horse in the top six of the weights on weights day did run in the last eleven nationals. This would give us a top OR of at least 161 though I’m guessing that the handicapper might round this down to at least 160 as he has been compressing the weights in recent years.
#446
February 2nd, 2009 13:00
correction to last posting; 14 of the last 17 winners had the same or higher OR than their last chase win- as Comply Or Die’s was the same 139 which was 9 lower than his highest 148.
#447
February 2nd, 2009 13:32
FOLLOW THE MONEY – AN ALTERNATIVE TO TRENDS UPDATE
Latest news this morning is money on three lead runners on Betfair (they can ofcourse go out again but the general trend is down, down, down!)
Butlers Cabin 14
Hear The Echo 15
Black Apalachi 35/2
And
Southern Vic 43
On money alone at this stage (and it can change again) the winner is probably in this short list of 4. The bookies are gettng better each year at finding the GN winner early. If you want a bet on the fisrt three take the best price on offer in the next three days or they will be even lower after the weighst come out. On a no racing day I off to get my bet on!
#448
February 2nd, 2009 13:34
A word of warning to anyone considering an ante-post bet on Rambling Minster, I’ve read on another forum people saying he won’t go for the national as connections aren’t at all keen on the idea of him running in the national. I’ve no idea of the accuracy of this information but its enough of a doubt for me to keep a watching brief on his price for now and only get involved if I hear some solid news about the trainers intentions or if there is a big gamble on him and the price shortens up significantly. Luckily was going to head down to the bookies this lunchtime so might have dodged a bullet there, don’t want another Parsons Legacy debacle I really don’t like giving the bookies free money on NRs.
Just a over week till weights day and then the headache of having to reframe all of them without Denman etc.
Haydock next Saturday should be marked in everyone’s diary as one to watch, the following have all been mentioned on here often and hold entries:
Notre Pere (FR) 8 11-7 J T R Dreaper 138
Comply Or Die (IRE) 10 10-12 D Pipe 152
Mon Mome (FR) 9 10-8 Miss Venetia Williams 148
Trabolgan (IRE) 11 10-8 N J Henderson 148
Cornish Sett (IRE) 10 10-4 P F Nicholls 144
Darkness 10 10-3 C R Egerton 143
Rambling Minster 11 10-3 K G Reveley 143
Character Building (IRE) 9 10-0 J J Quinn 140
Will be watching closely to see if any of them bolts up and proves to be ahead of the handicapper like CL and CoD last year.
#449
February 2nd, 2009 13:52
@Dan re the feedback.
Thanks for that, quite a few holes in most looks like, Fleet Street might be one to keep in the notebook though, regarding Notre Pere looks like your right Sporting Life haven’t updated his OR as they have him at 138! Add to that he is a soft ground specialist so possibly only backable near or on the day.
Re. Companero he’s just one of those interesting big price horses I like to try and find for place money. I’m sure he’ll probably go for a different race like the topham or something maybe one for next year though.
#450
February 2nd, 2009 15:06
Corals are standing Butlers Cabin at 20/1, just availed myself of some of that. Much better price than betfair currently!
As Systemsman says not sure how long that price will last though so be quick if you fancy him.
#451
February 2nd, 2009 15:17
Quick question on compressing the handicap – does anyone know from prior years, whether it is only the top weighted horse that gets revised and everything else is given weight in relation to that, or can more than 1 horse be revised.
Basis currently is Denman 182, Exotic 174 – can Denman be given 174 or less, with ED also given less than his 174?
If so, what do people think we will be the OR of the horse carrying the ‘correct’ weight, i.e. gaining no advantage from the compression of the handicap?
#452
February 2nd, 2009 18:41
Brody says 20/1 still available on Butlers Cabin at Corals – amazing value.
So it could be caviar in Cannes if you take the 20/1 now or a burger in Brighton if you wait.
This price will not hold more than about another 24hours.
I fancy some of that caviar in Cannes how about you?
#453
February 2nd, 2009 18:53
I maybe barking up yhe wrong tree with this stat but i think it is relevant and its 100/100 No French Bred winner.Over 20 have tried in the last 2yrs which is 25% of the runners and none were placed.Enjoy your holiday in Brighton and maybe you will be able to have few Cannes of beer!!!!!!Butlers Cabins form figures don’t hold up as a future nat winner and its time to wake up and smell the Coffee guys!!
#454
February 2nd, 2009 19:07
Yes it will be a real shame for many if Butler doesn’t prevail.
If it were a bridge, it could be a croissant to disaster
#455
February 2nd, 2009 19:10
Still the question is at 20/1 – do you want to baguette it just now at those odds, or wait to see if it drifts after the weights…
#456
February 2nd, 2009 19:59
Just refound this post I made last year – worth a note for making that short list (i have updated it to take account of the 2008 GN):
“Despite its reputation as being a lottery for punters, 14 of the last 17 winners of the race were in the first eight in the betting”-starting price”
It may seem a long time away but I doubt if most runners will have time for more tha two more runs (any big changes now will result from the weights and more likley wins after the weights are declared).
Looking at Oddschecker.com tonight the top 20 which probably willl include the winner(and cover the first eight [other than post weights winners if diferen])in the beting on GN day)are (listed by best odds available):
* donates a runner who fits the major GN trends
1 to 10
Denman (10) ,
Butlers Cabin (16) ,(Coral 20/1?)*
Hear The Echo (16) , *
Black Apalachi (20) , *
Comply Or Die (20) ,
Snowy Morning (20) ,
Character Building (25) ,
Cloudy Lane (25) ,
Notre Pere (25) ,
Big Fella Thanks (33) ,
11 to 20
Cant Buy Time (33) ,
Chelsea Harbour (33) , *
Exotic Dancer (33) ,
Hot Weld (33) ,
Joe Lively (33) ,
King Johns Castle (33) ,
Madison Du Berlais (33) ,
Mon Mome (33) ,
My Will (33) ,
Preists Leap (33)
#457
February 2nd, 2009 20:41
All French jokes aside, as you can see from my post (the last one of last year’s GN thread)I was almost alone in selecting Butler’s Cabin and it nearly came off. Is it that near run that has given so many of us this strong faith in him? Yes flyng weight IF he gets in – but is that alone enough with such poor form?
I’m a ‘lil bit once bitten..
My post pasted in below:
Showlad Says:
April 15th, 2008 at 9:09 am
Just back from hols. Thanks to all esp Wacky and Systems Man I had a hunch that Butlers and Point would kick back into form and their exp over classy 4m + races (irish national etc) would see them prevail
#458
February 2nd, 2009 22:07
Hey guys, some great points here. just wondering if it is advised to bet the shortlist of 5 to win or to back them each way??
#459
February 2nd, 2009 23:44
Further to my post at 7:59 pm.
Major correction – please ignore fisrt list posted earlier.
Will now give the first 24 runners as listed on the site itself- Betfair.com (not the summery which is slightly different, which is what I listed above). It excludes Internet betting like Betfair and covers the other 16 bookies.
* = fits major GN trends
1 to 10
Denman (10)
Butlers Cabin (16),(Coral 20/1?)*
Hear The Echo (16 *
Black Apalachi (20) *
Snowy Morning (20)
Comply Or Die (20)
Character Building (25)
Cloudy Lane (25)
Notre Pere (25)
My Will (33)
11 to 24
Joe Lively (33)
Hot Weld (33)*? (not run since April 2007)
Cant Buy Time(33)
Chelsea Harbour (33) *
Kings Johns Castle (33)
Southern Vic (33) *
Big Fella Thanks (33)
Mon Mome (33)
Madison Du Berlais (33)
Exotic Dancer (33)
War Of Atrition (33)
Preists Leap (33)
Himalayan Trail (40) *
Kilbeggan Blade (40) *
So for “Follow the Money Fans” – an alternative to trends we have a short list so far of (and subject to possible change):
In no particuler order
1.Butlers Cabin (16),(Coral 20/1?)*
2.Hear The Echo (16 *
3.Black Apalachi (20) *
4.Chelsea Harbour (33) * (not one I fancy)
5.Southern Vic (33) *
6.Trail (40) *
7.Kilbeggan Blade (40) *
8. Hot Weld? Needs to run this season before we can give a * (anyone any ifo on this?)
Now Notelppa gave (3 from 3 on my follow the money list):
1: Hear the Echo
2: Butler’s Cabin
3: Black Apalachi
Silver Birch is his studies gave: (4 from 6 on my follow the money list)
2. Butlers Cabin 9 ABC
2. Black Apalachi 9 BC*
2. Parsons Legacy 9 BC*
2. King Harold 9 ABC
3. Hear The Echo 9 BC
5. Himalayan Trail 8 AB (only 8 runs)
Gammers gave (3/8 on the money list)
Mon Mome, Black Apalachi, Parsons Legacy, Simon, Garde Champetre, Rambling Minster, Himalayan Trail, Butlers Cabin.
Note this is not my own short list which i will post soon just the “Folow the Money” short list.
#460
February 2nd, 2009 23:53
Just found this info on Hot Weld
“Ferdy Murphy primes Hot Weld for Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/racing/article5554713.ece
Wont put a penny on him until hes had 2 runs and come 1st/2nd or 3rd at 25f or more this season.
#461
February 3rd, 2009 11:06
well found systems and much appreciated,as i am chomping on the bit and have been for a while to get some hard earned on him.will now make myself wait,but it sounds like he will only get the 1 prep race at best.not enough surely is it?
#462
February 3rd, 2009 12:24
just read an article and surprise surprise the denman owners are not now so keen to run denman this year in the gn.paul barber especially is not keen and harry findlay is also beginning to wain.i am so shocked,arn’t you.more chance of platting fog than him running.
#463
February 3rd, 2009 13:25
wacky Says:
February 2nd, 2009 at 6:53 pm
I maybe barking up yhe wrong tree with this stat but i think it is relevant and its 100/100 No French Bred winner.Over 20 have tried in the last 2yrs which is 25% of the runners and none were placed.Enjoy your holiday in Brighton and maybe you will be able to have few Cannes of beer!!!!!!Butlers Cabins form figures don’t hold up as a future nat winner and its time to wake up and smell the Coffee guys!!
Since 2001 (when you could argue thats when the French Breds started having a decent amount of runners i the field) they have occupied roughly 20-30% of all runners who have finished the race (with the exception of 2004)
So the fact that there is rougly 25% of the starters being French bred and that 25% of the finishers are french bred then it shows that they can and WILL win the GN. I would rather include them on my short list providing they meet other vital stats prior to them winning rather than after they have won and i missed out on picking the winner.
#464
February 3rd, 2009 13:26
Gammers Says:
February 2nd, 2009 at 3:17 pm
Quick question on compressing the handicap – does anyone know from prior years, whether it is only the top weighted horse that gets revised and everything else is given weight in relation to that, or can more than 1 horse be revised.
Basis currently is Denman 182, Exotic 174 – can Denman be given 174 or less, with ED also given less than his 174?
If so, what do people think we will be the OR of the horse carrying the ‘correct’ weight, i.e. gaining no advantage from the compression of the handicap?
Gammers, as I understand it every horse can potentially be allocated a revised mark for the race by the handicapper his ultimate mission is to try and get every horse into the handicap proper, good luck with that if Denman is in LOL
The mark he gives is generally based around their official chasing rating but he does adjust it where he feels its appropriate. Normally horses who have proven form over distance and more importantly course form tend to be given a higher mark like MR Pointment did last year. That’s why I’m not keen on Black Apalachi this year despite being his biggest supporter last year as I’m sure Mr Smith will stitch him up in a similar manner, despite his limited number of chase wins. Same goes for the horses who finished in the first 5 last year.
Personally there is no reason I can see for him not dropping both Exotic and Denman I can see him dropping Denman down to 175ish and Exotic 165ish easily. Anyone still in the handicap would benefit as they would be on the correct weight but horses like Butlers who would be out of the handicap would have little chance as they wouldn’t be getting hardly any weight from horses like War of Attrition and Comply or Die. Generally any horse with no prior Aintree form tends to benefit or those that have fallen in the past as there is usually no penalty for that.
Not that it matters as neither Denman nor Exotic will run. What is interesting though is that Paul Nicholls holds 10 entries high up the handicap so can potentially dictate bottom weight!
Will try and do my Phil Smith impression and see what I come up, just for fun.
#465
February 3rd, 2009 13:42
The most likely topweight, in my opinion, is Joe Lively (OR 166). If not, then Cloudy Lane on 159 will certainly run. If Brody is correct and ED is brought down to, say, 165 that would surely force him to drop Joe Lively to 160ish. This would mean OR of 10-0 horses would be 136. This would be perfect for BC (if he gets in). It would mean the 11-0 mark would be set at OR 150.
I think it’s unlikely he would drop this many and I think the topweight on the day will have at least 163. (therefore 11-00 = 153 and bottomweight = 139). Less good for BC and my nr 1 choice Hear the Echo getting just 10-6. Agree, though, about Course & Distance horses being penalised.
#466
February 3rd, 2009 14:12
So if 11-00 = OR 153 then surely the surely we need to look at horses up to this mark as 10-13 could have an OR of 151 or something? Systemsman – do you think it is wise to check out the horses OR 135-153?
#467
February 3rd, 2009 14:25
If Phil Smith wants the maximum number of runners in the handicap, he may well work backwards on a similar basis to some of our calculations above. If withdrawls mean that on average the 80th horse in the list of entries is the last to make the final 40, then 10’0 would ideally be assigned to OR 136.
With 24 lbs to play with to a top weight of 11’10, then presumably the handicapper will have a stab at the top horse he thinks will run (Joe Lively, Cloudy Lane??) and assign them OR 160.
Just a theory…
#468
February 3rd, 2009 14:38
The best and only sensible solution I can see is for him to produce two lists with and without Denman otherwise he completely screws it whichever way you look at it.
#469
February 3rd, 2009 15:03
Dan
No I stand by the ten year trends – 148 is my maximum (and way above recent winners) with the winner more like OR135 to OR146. We can look at this again when the weights come out.
#470
February 3rd, 2009 15:07
Dan dont lose your nerve at his stage and waste money. Can we do it – Yes we can!
Its getting clearer by the day. See my short list tonight.
#471
February 3rd, 2009 15:09
Brody Says:
February 3rd, 2009 at 2:38 pm
The best and only sensible solution I can see is for him to produce two lists with and without Denman otherwise he completely screws it whichever way you look at it.
Brody, Phil Smith has already suggested he might do this as it will make his job a lot easier.
If he does this then you can take the list with Denman on it and throw into your nearest bin as Denman will not be running in the grand national this year and he will only run in it next year if he does not win the gold cup this year.
#472
February 3rd, 2009 15:12
You stand by the ten year trends yet you’re backing a French bred?? Cant have it both way Systemsman.
For whats it worth, i like Butlers Cabin, but if we are applying logic to the french bred stat, then we NEED to do it to others.
#473
February 3rd, 2009 15:15
So just for fun my stab at being a handicapper and if the official one looks anything like this I’m going to demand Phil Smith’s job as it takes him two bloody weeks, only took me an hour
DENMAN (IRE) P F Nicholls 182 > 172 11-10 out
EXOTIC DANCER (FR) Jonjo O’Neill 172 > 164 11-02 out
WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) M F Morris 167 > 161 10-13 out
JOE LIVELY (IRE) C L Tizzard 166 > 160 10-12 out
SNOWY MORNING (IRE) W P Mullins 157 > 159 10-11 11-10
CLOUDY LANE D McCain Jnr 159 10-11 11-10
COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) CD D Pipe 152 > 158 10-10 11-09
MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) D Pipe 159 > 157 10-09 11-08
KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) A L T Moore 152 > 156 10-08 11-07
STAR DE MOHAISON (FR) C P F Nicholls 161 > 156 10-08 11-07
KNOWHERE (IRE) CN A Twiston-Davies 156 10-08 11-07
NOTRE PERE (FR) J T R Dreaper 158 > 155 10-07 11-06
CANE BRAKE (IRE) T J Taaffe 155 > 153 10-05 11-04
OLLIE MAGERN N A Twiston-Davies 154 > 153 10-05 11-04
SILVER BIRCH (IRE) CD G Elliott 148??? > 153 10-05 11-04
MIKO DE BEAUCHENE (FR) R H & Mrs S Alner 152 10-04 11-03
MY WILL (FR) P F Nicholls 152 10-04 11-02
STATE OF PLAY C Evan Williams 150 10-02 11-00
BLACK APALACHI (IRE) C D T Hughes 146 > 150 10-01 11-00
HEAR THE ECHO (IRE) M F Morris 149 10-01 11-00
TRABOLGAN (IRE) N J Henderson 148 10-00 10-13
CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) T Mullins 148 10-00 10-13
MON MOME (FR) CBF Miss V Williams 148 10-00 10-13
OPERA MUNDI (FR) P F Nicholls 148 10-00 10-13
PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) P J Hobbs 146 2 out 10-11
SIMON J L Spearing 146 2 out 10-11
FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) N A Twiston-Davies 145 3 out 10-10
CORNISH SETT (IRE) P F Nicholls 144 4 out 10-09
BATTLECRY N A Twiston-Davies 144 4 out 10-09
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) E Bolger 144 4 out 10-09
FLEET STREET N J Henderson 144 4 out 10-09
SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) T M Walsh 143 5 out 10-08
DARKNESS C R Egerton 143 5 out 10-08
ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) C P Bowen 142 6 out 10-07
L’AMI (FR) E Bolger 141 7 out 10-06
KILBEGGAN BLADE T R George 141 7 out 10-06
HOT WELD Ferdy Murphy 141 7 out 10-06
CONNA CASTLE (IRE) J J Mangan 141 7 out 10-06
COMPANERO (IRE) J Howard Johnson 140 8 out 10-05
HIMALAYAN TRAIL J J Mangan 138 10 out 10-03
IDLE TALK (IRE) D McCain Jnr 136 12 out 10-01
CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) J J Quinn 136 12 out 10-01
BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) N A Twiston-Davies 136 12 out 10-01
D’ARGENT (IRE) A King 136 12 out 10-01
BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) C Jonjo O’Neill 135 13 out 10-00
KING HARALD (IRE) M Bradstock 135 13 out 10-00
NADOVER (FR) C J Mann 135 13 out 10-00
PREISTS LEAP (IRE) T G O’Leary 135 13 out 10-00
RAMBLING MINSTER K G Reveley 135 13 out 10-00
The conclusion for me is that if Denman runs I’m screwed as my horses are miles out of the handicap, if the top horses withdraw though I’m looking good. One interesting one to note is War of Attrition if Mouse leaves him in he could take quite a few lbs off his main hopes back taking him under the magic 11st marker, sneaky! Paul Nicholls used the same trick last weekend to leaving in an exposed no hoper to help the well handicapped horse.
#474
February 3rd, 2009 15:18
hhhmm thats not very clear without the tabs spacing it, first number is the OR then my revised rating, then the weight, second weight is assuming the top 4 drop out and Cloudy / Snowy share top weight.
#475
February 3rd, 2009 15:23
Mmm.. Looks unlikey. Also, you’ve got the wrong OR for Hear the Echo (but then I would notice that, wouldn’t I). So you reckon War of Attrition on 161 or Cloudy Lane / Snowy Morning at 159? Wouldn’t be much to gain by including a former GC winner to take HtE down from 10-10 (off his real OR of 145) down to 10-8 would it?
#476
February 3rd, 2009 15:27
Ok Systems – I am just looking at it from a horse carrying less than 11-01 rule. Surely we can’t rule out any horse that fits the trends and is carrying less than 11-01 on the basis the OR is over 148? I dont like ruling something out when it is so dangerous to do. In the past 10 years it would be interesting to see what the horses OR was at 11-01. I will check this out….
#477
February 3rd, 2009 15:38
Im with you on this one Dan. Weight not OR for me
#478
February 3rd, 2009 15:45
Me too
Year OR Topweight OR146 OR135
2008 156 (11st 12lb) 11st 2lb 10st 7lb (bottom was 137)
2007 158 (11st 12lb) 11st 0lb 10st 3lb
2006 156 (11st 12lb) 11st 2lb 10st 5lb
2005 155 (11st 12lb) 11st 3lb 10st 6lb
2004 155 (11st 12lb) 11st 3lb 10st 6lb
2003 158 (11st 12lb) 11st 0lb 10st 3lb
2002 158 (11st 12lb) 11st 0lb 10st 3lb
2001 153 (11st 10lb) 11st 3lb 10st 6lb
2000 153 (11st 12lb) 11st 5lb 10st 8lb
1999 169 (11st 12lb) 10st 4lb 10st 0lb (10st 0lb = 142)
#479
February 3rd, 2009 16:02
Right very quickly just looked at the last 6 years as dont have time this afternoon to go back further;
2008 11-01 OR 145 Top Weight OR 156
2007 11-01 OR 147 Top Weight OR 158
2006 11-00 OR 144 Top Weight OR 156
2005 11-01 OR 144 Top Weight OR 155
2004 11-00 OR 143 Top Weight OR 155
2003 11-01 OR 147 Top Weight OR 158
So the horse that has carried 11-01 has not had a higher OR than 147 in the last 6 years and that was when the Top Weight was OR 158. This year could be very different IF Top Weights OR is around 166.
Interesting comments from Notelppa regarding War of Attrition and Hear The Echo – tactics from Mouse Morris could see Hear The Echo with a decent weight if War of Attrition runs and if it does then Top Weight would be OR 167.
#480
February 3rd, 2009 17:28
Hey all, been looking through all your blogs and some fascinating opinions on here and I hope you will appreciate my comments over the coming months. Thought it was about time I joined the debate. My grand national winners – Seagram, Party Politics, Minnehoma, Rough Quest, Lord Gyllene, Earth Summit, Bobbyjo, Red Marauder, Montys Pass, Amberleigh House, Hedgehunter, Comply or Die. No lie! I must admit it wasn’t until the Lord Gyllene year (’97) that I started looking into the national more deeply (I went with Seagram because they sponsored it and Party Politics because he was big lol). Not a bad record though and last year was by biggest cash since Earth Summit in ’98 and the first time I’ve started betting in February.
I’ll try to run through my leading contenders over the coming weeks and especially when the weights are announced but I’ll try to rule out some of your fancies too (Hear The Echo, Hear The Echo).
This is just to say hello though really but if you trust me on first sight then 80% of my current wager is on Butler’s Cabin. I have 15% on Garde Champetre and 5% on Irish Raptor each way (don’t ask, I fear its wasted investment now). Seems a lot of you agree with my main selections anyway (disregard Irish Raptor for now).
I hope you will make me welcome here and before my selections are rubbished my some – I am aware of the ‘French bred’ factor and this is the first year I have relaxed my opinion on it. This year’s race seems to be shaping out differently from other years and if there’s a trend I see breaking it could well be that one. AP McCoy might even win!
I reserve the right to change my mind, of course.
Hello all.
#481
February 3rd, 2009 17:58
Could you please get Butlers Cabins price down a bit further so i can lay it on betfair?Don’t understand how you can look at this horse with form figures of 000 this season and the fact that french bred horses in general lose there form as they get older.Plus it won’t get in the race and i will have 2 winners in the book with BC and Denman even before the big day.Happy holidays
#482
February 3rd, 2009 18:16
form fair enough. Might not get in, will be touch and go. BUT as i have said time and time again, he doesnt know where his parents had sex!!! That is the only thing that is French about him!
I have a green screen already on Betfair, so there!?
#483
February 3rd, 2009 18:42
re systems man hot weld article,
just thought let you know that was 21/jan.hot weld was n/r in that race,but also mentioned is w/hill chase at cheltenham.hope may help.
also garde champetre main aim is xcountry chelt,enda bolga quote,and he goes onto say likes to run fresh,
again this may help you all.
any thoughts one way or other, on
mon mome,
my will,
idle talk,
just trying to eliminate,possible place chances?
#484
February 3rd, 2009 21:36
Here is my own short list for whats its worth.
Its based on (at least ten year trends)
1. Pre Christmas GN winnning trends
2. Main winning trends for GN winner
3. Follow the money trends
Best price excludes interent only betting like Betfair from the other 16 bookies remaining.
Those with only one 40/1 quote or less: six against the field and the most likely winner in this group or at worse in the first nine!.
1. Butlers Cabin OR 135 Best RPR 150 Best TS 131 Price 20/1 (Coral)
1. Black Apalachi OR 146 RPR 158 TS 138 Price 20/1 (Coral)
3. Southern Vic OR 143 RPR 159 TS 146 Price 33/1 (WHill)
4. Hear The Echo OR 145 RPR 158 TS 133 Price 16/1 (Coral) See Note
5. Himalayan Trail OR 138 RPR 145 TS 140 Price 40/1 (Lad)
5. Kilbeggan Blade OR 141 RPR 145 TS 124 Price 40/1 (WHill)
Those with more than one 40/1 quote
6. Parsons Legacy OR 146 RPR 153 TS 141 Price 40/1 (WHill)
7. Garde Champetre OR 144 RPR 154 TS 143 Price 40/1 (Lad)
8. Darkness OR 143 RPR 156 TS 133 Price 50/1 (Coral)
Others to consider:
Chelsea Harbour OR 143 – 9th last year!
Simon OR 146 – had his chance!
king Harold OR 135 – price needs to drop from 50/1
Note: I have been toying with Hear The Echo all week. His rating went up from OR 127 in Dec 2007,
to 132 when he won the Irish National in 2008 to OR 145 now – thats 13lbs more weight to carry than the IN?
I’am not a fan but just cant leave him of the list. If he in the Fav or JT Fav (when Denman drops out)for the GN
it has been about 100 years since a consecutive Fav won the GN (ckecked this a few weeks ago but cant remember the date).
Can anyone out there convince me he can win? (I will have a bet on him just to play safe)
#485
February 3rd, 2009 22:11
What if Butler’s Cabin is the Fav?
That will throw your whole conclusion out of the window? lol. Sorry I only jest
Hear The Echo – What has he actually done apart from win the Irish National? Not much when you look at it. But there is still something niggling at the back of my mind that says you can’t rule him out. For me he has to be in anyone’s list come the day. Decent weight no doubt, at around 14/1, got to be had.
Southern Vic – Interesting one. Could run well for place money at 33/1.
Black Apalachi – Can’t see this one doing anything really unless it’s a bog again. Out of the top 4 for me.
I still feel Character Building deserves respect. I know he doesn’t fit “the trends” exactly at the moment. But he is so so close and one good win and he is right up there.
#486
February 3rd, 2009 22:16
Systems man – i have to say that list is verging on the perfect . i think the first 9 horses you have there is almost identical to my own ..the only deviation from your list i have is that im not keen on kilbeggan blade and will replace him with state of play – other than that i reckon its absolutely spot on.. i will be gobsmacked if the winner is not in the list above.!
My current thoughts
1. Southern Vic
2. Hear the Echo
3. Himalayan Trail
4. Garde Champetre
5, State of Play
6 . Black Apalachi
7, Butlers Cabin
8. Darkness
9. Parsons Legacy
Ones to watch
Darkness
Trabolgan
War of Attrition
#487
February 3rd, 2009 22:34
Silver Birch I value your opinion – nice we almost agree 100%.
Yes Darkness (needs to drop in price) is one to watch closely as is Rambling Minster (40/1 x5 – needs to drop to 33/1 or less soon) -keep an eye on their price every few days.
I shall now have a good look at State Of Play.
Note to all:
Rambling Minster should have been on my “Others to Consider List” with the note – his price needs to drop (too many 40/1′s).
Any other short lists out there?
#488
February 3rd, 2009 22:37
I think a lot of people’s lists will be the same or near enough the same. I think come weights day it will be easier to pick the winner and then the serious money can go down.
I am divided between the french bred stat. I don’t think there is much logic in it and it would be stupid to rule a horse out just because they are french.
#489
February 3rd, 2009 22:39
Stephen said “What if Butler’s Cabin is the Fav?
That will throw your whole conclusion out of the window? lol. Sorry I only jest
”
My reply would be: After 100years its going to happen any time now!!!!!!
I think Hear The Echo will be just Fav or JT Fav with a winner of a big race after the weights come out.
#490
February 4th, 2009 01:26
Systemsman, you want to be persuaded of Hear the Echo’s credentials? That has to be down to me I think!
Won nothing apart from the Irish National. True, but what a win. As a progressive 7yo with 7lb overweight, in his first race at over 3m (3m5f), he gives a lot of very good horses (many tipped for the National here) weight and a hiding to go with it. The only horse of note he didn’t give weight to who finished was Notre Pere (levels) and he beat him into third by 16l (check his subsequent form). Given this, is his OR now 8lb more than Notre Pere? No it’s 13lb less!!! This is because he’s being aimed specifically at this race. How else would he get in on 145? By placing or winning 3m+ chases? Anyone’s only concern can be that he’s had 3 falls, the last of which was 2 years ago. You can probably ignore his fall as a 4yo. His other 2 were consecutive races where he made the running and carried 11-10 and 11-12.
So, he has the form, his now traditional Irish hurdle prep and an amazingly low weight. He ticks most of the trend boxes although it’d be nice to see him over the proper fences between next Tuesday and April 4th. I think we’re struggling to find any outstanding candidates from the rest (Butler’s Cabin seems the most popular based on a decent performance before falling last year). Looks like an “if he gets round he wins” job to me. The price at the moment is artificially high due to the Denman factor. The worst weight he could get is 10-10 (if Cloudy Lane is topweight) but if Joe Lively, for example runs off 166, you’re looking at 10-3. He’s shown he can perform with that sort of weight on his back and looks like the longer the race the better. I think he was a revelation at Fairyhouse, maybe even to his connections and that since that day, they’ve had one aim, to take the National back to Ireland yet again.
One final point you make is that he has to carry 13lb more weight than the Irish National. Yes, he’s on a 13lb higher mark (not quite the same thing as he may have to carry 4lb less), but he was carrying 7lb overweight, so effectively, that’s 6lb not 13. Not too bad a jump now is it? Especially when you consider he was originally put up 17lb then recently brought back down from 149 to 145 due to his lack of chases. Anyway, back him or not, I’m on and more than happy to have 25s on a horse who’ll go off at single figures.
Convinced? I’ll stop now and consider others as I’m already well in the black on betfair on this one and have the profits on at the bookies! So far I have 2 big winners (HtE and Butler’s) with 100 odd losers so will concentrate on reducing that number!!!
Looking forward to hearing what Rascal has to say to the contrary!
#491
February 4th, 2009 04:08
The 4 I like at present pre-wts. are -
1 – Character Building
2 – Darkness
3 – Southern Vic
4 – Parsons Legacy.
#492
February 4th, 2009 10:32
Great summary Notelppa.
#493
February 4th, 2009 11:00
My four pre-weights are
1. Hear the Echo
2. Garde Champetre
3. Himalayan Trail
4. Butlers Cabin
Will be looking for a reserve to replace Butler’s Cabin as im very doubtful about him getting in on his current mark.
And all you french doubter’s it would be interesting if you went back through the list of winners and just seen how many of them have a french bloodline in them.
Once you have done that then tell me where the logic is that french breds dont win nationals.
#494
February 4th, 2009 12:02
The last ten winners have also placed in a C1/Grade A chase before winning the national as well, as ive mnetioned before.
I think that rules out Kilbeggan Blade
#495
February 4th, 2009 12:05
The last 10 winners all had at least 3 runds BEFORE the weights came out. Is it too risky therefore to put a line through those that only have 2 runs come weights day?
#496
February 4th, 2009 12:10
Thank you Notelppa – good points on Hear The Echo but I’am not convinced yet until he is 1st,2nd or 3rd this season in chase at 25f or more (having said that I will be having money on him at 16/1 as so many on here rate him)
Now a fun puzzle while we all wait for the weights!
Which is the WORSE bet? (I wont asked you to put them in winning order – that would be bloody hard).
Hear The Echo, Fav without Denman
Problem: Up from OR 127 the Chase before last to OR 145 now – a rise of 18!! Can he carry the extra weight compared to Dec 2007? The OR 132 he won the IN with was his best ever OR mark.
Also aged 8 – a very bad record for the GN recently (but still possible).
Butlers Cabin, 2nd Fav without Denman
Problem: French bred – but is he really?
Will he get in of 135?
Black Apalachi, 3rd Fav without Denman
Problem Won the 2008 Becher Chase but Becher Chase winners dont win the GN in the same year do they??? (any logic in this?.
After falling in last years GN (fell 2nd) he went on to come second at Punchestown over 30f in 3Ok HC (RPR 147) then went on to win the Becher Chase at Aintree (RPR 158) in his second race this season.
So which is the worse bet?
For me its still Hear The Echo (but i’am no idiot I will have him covered)
#497
February 4th, 2009 12:29
Dan “The last 10 winners all had at least 3 runs BEFORE the weights came out. Is it too risky therefore to put a line through those that only have 2 runs come weights day”
Dan trends can and do change slightly from year to year! (last year the “blinkers myth” was destroyed). I think every now and again we will all be caught out but not too often i hope.
So min two runs prior to weights coming out would be the safe option (but three best).
Daniel Edwards “The last ten winners have also placed in a C1/Grade A chase before winning the national as well, as ive mentioned before.
I think that rules out Kilbeggan Blade”
Excellent points which I will now take account of.
Also he has a low RPR of 145 (minimum 144 required) and a low TS of 124 (it has been done but min 128 is best (7/11 trend) – the RPR is more impirtant than the TS – but good speed IS important also. The absolute lowest best TS for a winner is TS 111 (12/12 trend).
If he wins again then he may look better but I think he does need another win.
#498
February 4th, 2009 12:31
To me the best bet is Hear the Echo. You say the problem with him is that he will be carrying extra weight than what he carried in the Irish National but will he really be carrying extra weight????
Depending on who the top rated horse will be then HTE could be carrying less weight than he did in the Irish National.
I think the worst bet is Black Apalachi mainly because it is a massive gamble on Butlers cabin getting in but if he does get in then surely he will be favourite and there is no way them odds will last so therefore i think the gamble is worth it in the risk/reward scenario whereas i cant see Black Apalachi’s odds dropping that much after the weights are announced so there is not that much to gain by placing the bet now. I would save this bet incase it looks like BC will not get in closer to the day.
#499
February 4th, 2009 12:40
Re Black Apalachi.
They dont win in the same year as their mark goes up so much in such a short space of time! For that reason alone, I rate him the worst bet of the 3 you’ve outlined above.
Whilst previous Becher winners who have gone on to win the GN have won with an OR about 15 higher than their Beecher win, these were 2-3 years apart.
#500
February 4th, 2009 13:06
Brody’s fun list of Top 50 horses and their weights allocation was great.
Given that the Top 40 to get in should come from no more than the Top 80 on the list that’s published on Tuesday, I wonder if anyone would attempt a stab at what those 80, top weight downwards, would be.
Would give us an idea of whom can be totally discount (the excess 43 out of the 123 entered).
Know all up to date ratings may not be to hand, but a rough guide to the 80 would be great.
Anyone?
Would give us something great to mull over whilst we wait on Tuesday coming.
#501
February 4th, 2009 13:29
“Systemsman Says:
February 4th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
Thank you Notelppa – good points on Hear The Echo but I’am not convinced yet until he is 1st,2nd or 3rd this season in chase at 25f or more (having said that I will be having money on him at 16/1 as so many on here rate him)”
Surely Butler’s Cabin has to do the same then?
#502
February 4th, 2009 13:37
Over 500 and still going strong!
On Hear the Echo, as I said earlier he carries none of my money currently but he is the horse I fear the most from the rest of the field.
I remember his Irish national win that Notepella described very well as I had Royal County Star to win and Notre Pere E/W, was looking great to scoop both bets up until the final fence and this rag horse comes out of knowhere to steam away from Tony Martin’s top chaser like he was going in reverse gear! Impressive stuff. The thing is though I also remember seeing a near identical display in the Scottish National from Iris de Balme both unfancied horses steaming clear from the last of supposedly superior horses and the thing is both have disappointed since then are they both one hit wonders? Its quite possible H T E is being laid out and not trying to protect his mark but its a leap of faith to take. The other negative for me is his breeding connection with Strong Gale.
Overall I really do like the horse he went straight in my notebook after the Irish national as a potential GN winner. But for me at the skinny current price there are one too many negatives for me to feel I’m getting value out of backing him, if he was 33/1 I’d definitely have him on my side.
Having said all that I may well bottle it nearer the day if he looks like running off a featherweight and put a saver on him to cover my stakes to even.
Oh and Brian like the list switch HTE for CB and thats my list too atm.
#503
February 4th, 2009 13:43
You pick the winners, let the bookies sort out the prices mate!
#504
February 4th, 2009 15:11
There is one vital trend that no one has yet used to pick the winner; number of times a horse has been mentioned in this thread
Denman 157
Hear the Echo 139
Butlers Cabin 137
Southern Vic 67
Black Apalachi 62
Himalayan Trail 57
Comply or Die 45
Garde Champetre 44
Mom Mome 37
Hot Weld 36
Parsons Legacy 35
Kilbeggan Blade 32
Joe Lively 30
Character Building 27
Cloudy Lane 27
Snowy Morning 21
Notre Pere 20
Darkness 20
Before you ask no I’m not sad enough to have counted them by hand.
#505
February 4th, 2009 15:14
Brody, whats the objection to Strong Gale? HTE, Darkness and Southern Vic all have SG in their pedigree, so if there’s a valid reason to rule these out it would be very useful to know.
4 horses related to Roselier this year, tho none jump off the page as likely winners.
4 sired by Accordian all look to have potential (with the exception of Battlecry for 2009 perhaps)
And the usual selection from Old Vic…
#506
February 4th, 2009 15:21
The only market principal I have backed is Character Building – his Roselier breeding is a big plus but dodgy attitude at the end of races might be a bit of a worry
Short list pre weights:
Character Building (backed)
Cornish Sett (backed)
Simon (waiting for next run)
Others backed on Betfair / for me to keep an eye:
Southern Vic
King Harald
State of Play
Battlecry
Fleet Street
Brooklyn Brownie
Abbeybraney
A few days ago I thought Hear The Echo was the most likely winner but I haven’t bet on him yet – I’m really not sure (Will he stay? was his Irish National victory a one-off performance? Or is he thrown in and if he jumps he wins?) and will wait until nearer the time to play or not
Black Apalachi is running for the bookies in my opinion unless it comes up heavy – always suspicious of long margin victories on soft or heavy – only proves the horse likes the mud or everything else gave up – otherwise I think there are better horses around him in the handicap
Butler’s Cabin – too short in the betting – have no idea of its current form (is the trainer trying to get his hurdles rating down too?) – needs to show me something before I part with my hard earned ante-post and might not even get in – take the McCoy / McManus angle out and would he be this short?
#507
February 4th, 2009 15:31
for those interested in pedigrees try http://www.pedigreequery.com
it goes 5 generations back
I don’t pretend to understand but have been informed that:
Roselier is a good influence
Strong Gale is not so good
at least that is my understanding…
#508
February 4th, 2009 15:37
I agree with you Brody and Stephen about HTE.
alot of these horses considered this year
are a bit in and out, more out than in! when they win its off a light weight, one of this lot can do it but which one.. the good jumper on the day obviously, it looks like a lucky dip!
Can’t go for BC as won’t probably get in.
form was rather last year,
seemingly all hype!
The french blood debarcle could be obscuring the real issues! I could easily argue that L’Ami and Mon Mome have a good chance! both improved form, both now the right age, been round a few times etc.
#509
February 4th, 2009 16:06
Stephen “Hear The Echo but I’am not convinced yet until he is 1st,2nd or 3rd this season in chase at 25f or more (having said that I will be having money on him at 16/1 as so many on here rate him)”
Surely Butler’s Cabin has to do the same then?”
Yes Stephen he does and a few others as well. That is the sort of form we are now waiting for, the problem being that after any of the top twenty (priced)win in a very good race (after the weights are out) their price will drop as fast as a lead weight. I am confident Butlers Cabin will get a place in a sat 25f or more after the weights are out some time. Take a big price now or wait for a skinny one – the choice is yours!
#510
February 4th, 2009 16:33
Surely on all aspects talked about here, Cornish Sett has the best profile at the moment. Three prep runs before weights day, a top four chase place, has won a race worth £17,000, second in a welsh national, has won twice over 3 miles, two career falls, (isn’t french!) OR 144.
#511
February 4th, 2009 17:02
Crisp, Cornish Sett: If you ignore the finishing in last year’s National stat, I think Cornish Sett shows the strength of the Irish National form. CS is rated 144 (1 lb less than Echo). The performance that puts him in with a shout is the Welsh National when he was beaten 7 lengths by Notre Pere despite receiving 13lb from him. This is still a good performance and shouldn’t be underestimated as he beat many very good horses. My point is that HtE beat Notre Pere in the Irish equivilent at level weights note he was 7lb overweight) by 16 lengths. Strictly on form, Echo has a 23 length beating of Cornish Sett when giving him 13lb yet he only gives him 1 lb in the National!!! On this, he’s 2 stone well in. I’m not suggesting it’s that straight forward or he can’t be beaten but it highlights a point!!
By the way, if he doesn’t win, please don’t hurt me!
#512
February 4th, 2009 17:04
I must admit Cornish Sett has an excellent profile. I knoe people will say that because he has been around before and not placed he cant win. However, could this be another trend changer? 70′s on betfair at the moment.
#513
February 4th, 2009 17:08
Regarding Pablo’s comments, these re the horses pedigree, Strong Gale has connections to the following;
DARKNESS
FUNDAMENTALIST
GALLANT APPROACH
HEAR THE ECHO
IDLE TALK
JOE LIVELY
MATTOCK RANGER
OFFSHORE ACCOUNT
SOUTHERN VIC
WAR OF ATTRITION
Is this a worry?
#514
February 4th, 2009 17:52
Full list of horses OR 155/11st 5lbs’ish(?) or less (only Red Rum has carried more in last 50 years), 8-12 yr old, top 5 in Hennessey, top 3 in Irish, Welsh, Scots national, top2 in races over GN fences. This profile has provided 28 of the last 35 GN winners/ 17 of the last 20, 11 out of the last 11 ( french breds included for now!) Red Rum ( first win),Lucius, Hallo Dandy, West Tip, Seagram, Royal Athlete, Lord Gyllene didn’t share this profile. Rummy and Lucius won a handful of chases at or around 24f, the others all won at least 3 chases at 24f or further including 1 at a distance of at least 28f. Only Lucius, Hallo Dandy and Lord Gyllene( to the best of my knowledge) hadn’t contested any of the ‘profile’ races.
Ollie Magern( not totally sure about OR have seen it as 154),Comply Or Die, Miko De Beauchene, State Of Play, Trabolgan, Silver Birch, Mon Mome, Parsons Legacy, Black Apalachi, Hear The Echo, Cornish Sett, Hot Weld, L’Ami, Endless Power, Character Building, Oulart, Brooklyn Brownie, Butlers Cabin, Flintoff.
Others to be considered on secondary criteria( I think I’ve got the full list but please check if interested)
Chelsea Harbour, Rambling Minster, Kilbeggan Blade, Himalayan
Trail, D’Argent.
Of course there are plenty who are just one aspect away from a good trends profile. I make it that those with nothing to ‘prove’ are;
State Of Play, Cornish Sett, Mon Mome, Parsons Legacy, Black Apalachi, L’Ami, Chelsea Harbour.
(Also of interest to me was Brooklyn Brownie, couldn’t find anything wrong with him except his best win was just £737 short of the magic 17k!)
#515
February 4th, 2009 18:11
Last post; I started it without including Garde Champetre, having read lots of articles stating that Cheltenham was his aim, but he does qualify in secondary criteri( has won 3 chases at 24f or further with 1 win at least at 28f) but I undertsand he needs a place in a Grade 1 race??
#516
February 4th, 2009 18:51
I may be missing something here but does Fundamentalist not meet all the trends?
#517
February 4th, 2009 19:07
Great work Crisp I written into my special GN profile book – I think I’ll call in the “Crisp Profile”.
Nice to see 6 from my short list (posted on Feb 3rd) of the nine I selected in your fist list and another three in your secondary list (I added Rambling Mimster later)making 6 from the my first 9 and 8 from the total of 12 I mentioned – the winner must in there somewhere?
#518
February 4th, 2009 20:31
Notelppa – cornish sett has consistancy, to pull out the one outstanding performance by HTE and try and ‘weigh’ it out I think is a bit of a nonsense,its swings and roundabouts in terms of who has beaten who, its typical of this years problem.
HTE is one of several lightweighters in the
‘IF they get round could well win group.’
One to fear on the day perhaps..
More my kinda list Crisp, I like the form and consistancy best too!
This year must have the fewest number getting 3prep runs, are you statisticians allowing those with 2 into your numbers crunchers?
#519
February 4th, 2009 22:22
Hey KJ what do you make of ‘My Will’ this year – saw his return run and was v impressive…
#520
February 4th, 2009 22:31
Nice work Crisp.
I think thats the shortlist we should be working from now (both sets of criteria including Garde Champetre) as this list will contain the winner.
So we have 25 horses to look at between weights day and the big day and get them narrowed down to four against the field.
Good to see i have got all my current four in the list, and systemsman has got a number of his in the list as well, so its looking like were all heading in the same direction (roughly).
#521
February 4th, 2009 23:02
Quoting from blog: Daniel Edwards Says:
January 29th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
I vouch for Crips’ stats on looking at the top 80 to find the likely runners. Amberleigh House missed out by 1 the year he missed out, and he was numbered 81.
Top 70 will be safe
anything between 80-90 risky.
Above 90, forget about it.
So on OR quoted currently on sporting life, those on OR of 135 (eight horses) are placed 85th – 92nd place (depending in the event of a tie how they will be split).
This doesn’t take into consideration 2 horses with no OR quoted.
The likes of Preists Leap also on 135, who may be favoured if OR’s on 135 had to be split.
Is Butler in real danger of not making cut at all?
#522
February 4th, 2009 23:17
Showlad
According to Racing Post the OR has been revised since recent run for:
Preists Leap – 146
Big Fella Thanks – 149
Can’t Buy Time – 143
Chelsea Harbour – 148
There may be more that have changed but that’s all I have looked at for now
#523
February 4th, 2009 23:21
Pablo
Read OR http://horses.sportinglife.com/Racecards/0,12495,294298,00.html on their Aintree Big Race Entries page. Can you send me link with updated.
Thanks
#524
February 4th, 2009 23:43
Showlad Says:
February 4th, 2009 at 11:02 pm
Is Butler in real danger of not making cut at all?
In short showlad yes. BC is in real danger of not making it in.
I have already got a small bet on BC and im now busy trying to find a replacement to go into my top 4 incase this scenario does happen.
#525
February 4th, 2009 23:46
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/racing.sd?r_date=2009-04-04#top
If you click on Preists Leap and go to his page it gives 146 in the Key Stats tab, but the card itself does not appear to have been updated
He must have gone up from 135 for his Thyestes win
#526
February 4th, 2009 23:56
Thanks Brian and Pablo
I agree Brian, although some ORs are still to be updated, Butler may be in real danger. Preist’s Leap (135 to 146) and Can’t Buy Time (130 to 143) and their upgrades, push him down 2 slots further…
Pablo, wish they would update all new ORs in every section at the same time, make life a lot easier.
#527
February 5th, 2009 00:02
If anyone is worried about losing their stake because Butler’s doesn’t make the cut (or making money by laying him) you should get your stake back if he is balloted out:
d. If the horse is balloted out or eliminated under Jockey Club rules single bets will be void. In any such cases, accumulative ante-post bets will stand on the remaining legs, at the prices laid on the selections in those races, with a double becoming a single, a treble becoming a double, etc.
Obviously you’ll have to consider a replacement as well.
#528
February 5th, 2009 00:03
Indeed but at least there’s less than a week’s racing before weights day
#529
February 5th, 2009 12:24
Is Butler in real danger of not making cut at all?
Come on whats all the drama about Butlers. There are loads of entries that will not run based on Denman’s possible entry – when he drops out so they will too one by one by one.
Shame he didnt keep his OR 138 rather than his curent OR 135. I predict he will just get in.
Thanks Brody for this info: Nice to know we get our money back if he is balloted out or eliminated under Jockey Club rules (I take it this applies so all the High Street bookies – I will go in and ask them as i have a fair bit on him). At worse I will be able to reinvest on another runner. But its not going to happen! (famous last words)
#530
February 5th, 2009 13:47
My Will-not another frenchie! sorry, but he should be on the list in the earlier profiles post(5th in Hennessey) had seen his OR as 156!? but now have seen it as 152(if this isn’t correct just ignore the rest!). I think his stats are very very good. 3rd to Hot Weld, beaten 9 lengths, in Betfred two years ago giving him 26lbs! Raced three times at 27f or more and never out of the first three. I know he was out for a time, did he come out of the Hennessey OK?
#531
February 5th, 2009 14:26
His mark his too high for me, plus he needs to have another couple of runs for me to even think about even putting place money on him, although I did have a tiny nibble at 330/1 about him last summer.
#532
February 5th, 2009 15:04
I have to say that I am loving all of this well educated opinion on the great race. I am only 23 years old but I have been into racing all my life and enjoy nothing more than cracking the National puzzle every year. Let’s hope we can do it again this time around people
Waiting for weights day on Tuesday is worse than waiting for Christmas as a kid!! I am very excited, ha ha!
#533
February 5th, 2009 15:29
I concur Stephen! Although it is starting drive me barmy trying to find the actual winner! Big negatives for all the leading fancies. I am hoping Southern Vic or Kilbeggan Blade runs a blinder between now and GN day, and then it will be easy!!
#534
February 5th, 2009 17:50
I agree Daniel. It seems very easy to pick holes in all of the runners this time around. Last year and previous years seemed much more comfortable in terms of picking out certain ones that stood out. The list this year seems to throw a lot of good horses at us but with a lot of question marks.
Hopefully once the weights are out and one or two start to drop away from the list, the clouded waters will become far more clearer.
I have only one ante post bet on at the moment and for now I think I may have to stick to that.
#535
February 5th, 2009 18:00
Following my most recent bets on Butlers Cabin and Hear the Echo, I stand to win as follows, including commission;
Butlers Cabin – £83.34
Hear the Echo – £58.64
Himalayan Trail – £24.44
Garde Champetre – £201.14
My Will – £13.04
Parsons Legacy – £106.14
Snoopy Loopy – £11.14
Any other – -£8.27 (LOSS)
I think that’s some pretty good trading! I may yet lay off Garde Champetre, as he is at a price where I would lay him off, but as he is not due a run for a while, and as he is probably my joint best pick at the moment, I think I will leave it for a bit.
Im not convinced by Black Apalchi’s stamina, so think I will swerve him. I will be laying all 6,7 & 13 yo’s win and place come race day as well. Guys, you HAVE to do this. It’s printing money!
#536
February 5th, 2009 18:49
Just been thinking about Butler’s Cabin. It seems to me that the lower the OR of the topweight, the better chance he has of getting in the 40 because the higher the rating of the topweight, the more decent horses who’ll keep their entry. In fact, I’d say that in order for him to get in, he’d probably need the topweight to be Cloudy Lane at 159. Given this and that horses balloted out are no bet, if he does get in then he’s likely to get the perfect weight and if he doesn’t you don’t lose anything. This makes him a cracking ante-post bet.
Having said that, I think once the weights are out, it’ll look like BC may be out of the handicap and I think bookies are likely to lengthen BC a bit so my suggestion would be, wait for the weights and then lump on. You’ll either end up with your money back or getting about 20s on a horse who’ll go off 8/1 – 12/1 on the day.
Does this make sense?
#537
February 5th, 2009 19:53
I think it would be great someone clarifying this bet refund position for sure. I can’t remember on being refunded for a horse that didn’t make the cut in the past. Mind you maybe I did – did I get refunded when Dunbrody didn’t make cut in GN – think I did… Appreciate the rules seem to be saying this, but would be great for any of us to be officialy told from the horses mouth (excuse the pun).
#538
February 5th, 2009 20:29
just found this on the ladbrokes site … maybe of sme help.
“Ante Post bets are those placed at our quoted prices on named selections taking part in an event before it has started. For example bets placed in January on The Derby. Each-Way terms will be available on ante post vents as advertised at the time.
Should your Ante Post selection fail to participate in the event, the bet is a loser.
The following are exceptions to this rule;
If the race / event is abandoned
If the race / event is declared void
In the case of horseracing and greyhound racing, if the conditions of the race entry are changed prior to the horses or greyhounds coming under starters orders
If the venue is altered
In the case of horseracing, a horse is balloted out or eliminated under Jockey Club Rule 125, or prevented from running under Jockey Club Rule 1A
Where we offered specific terms such as “with a run” at the time a bet is placed and the selection is subsequently withdrawn as a non-runner.
In all the above cases, Ante Post singles would be made void. Other than the terms shown above, Ante Post bets are accepted on the basis of all in, run or not, entered or not and therefore an Ante Post bet on an eventual non-runner is a loser.
Where the above conditions apply to selections in an Ante Post multiple bet, the selections in question will be treated as a non-runners and the bet settled at the Ante Post odds laid on the remaining selections.
#539
February 5th, 2009 20:48
jockey club rule 125 is about the limitation of numbers in the race ie. only 40 runners can participate on the day.
#540
February 5th, 2009 22:14
Come on guys whats your opinions on FUNDAMENTALIST, he seems to meet all the trends (apart from the 3 falls in his career he looks pretty solid) he has not been mentioned so far any reason?…..maybe i am missing something???
#541
February 5th, 2009 23:45
Thank you DRAGONMAN thats clear then. Hope the same rules apply to Corals. As I have a sever cold (and feeling bloddy aweful) at the moment cant get out to the bokies can anyone confrim Corals have the same rule (I cant imagine they dont)?
#542
February 5th, 2009 23:52
Found this on the Corals site (probably refers to telephone bettng but I am sure it also applies to its shops as its a general rule for Horse Racing bets).
“Ante post betting
An Ante Post bet is defined as one taken before 10.00am on the day that the final declaration to run is made.
Bets taken after 10.00am on the day that final declarations are made will be treated as early price bets, with non runner no bet, and Rule 4 liable to apply.
An Ante Post bet on a horse that does not run will be settled as a loser. Exceptions to this are where a horse is balloted out of the race (Jockey Club Rule 125), or had no chance to win at the time the bet was struck (e.g. the horse was dead), or where we offer the special provision ‘with a run’.
Corals:
Ante post bets are accepted at the currently quoted price only.
Where a horse is balloted out of a race, bets on the remaining runners in the race are liable to a Rule 4 deduction.
#543
February 6th, 2009 02:21
The rules on racing apply to all bookmakers equally.
#544
February 6th, 2009 10:02
Er, not quiet sure how I missed Fundamentalist!!?!
#545
February 6th, 2009 10:31
I think i am going to have to look more closely at FUNDAMENTALIST OR 145 RPR 163 TS 148 the only thing that are not in his favour are the fact that he has fallen 3 times in his career and his current price of 100/1 but then again we all know about the 100/1 offered on Silver Birch at this time of year before his National.
He will have to stay in my final list of 8 for now, i don’t think he will be my main choice at this stage but there is a long way to go and i have moved my final 8 around so much this week i feel as if i have done over 4 Miles
#546
February 6th, 2009 12:04
French breds. Not again, I can hear the groans … but this is a very interesting issue. Did everybody know that Roselier, a good sire of staying chasers is French? Four recent winners are at least half french; Rhyme N Reason, Little Polveir, Royal Athlete and Bindaree( more french blood than Butlers)Yet you can’t deny that no horse with an ‘FR’ after it’s name has won the National since 1909. Do they do it differently on the continent!!!!!
On a different note. We always talk about a ‘covering’ bet in this race; the name of 33/1 national winner Red Marauder’s dam? ‘Cover Your Money’. You couldn’t make it up!
Personally I think Fundamentalist would need a chase win over 28f but he is now rated 9lbs lower than his best ever rating, will race at a much lower weight than his 11-4 last year and has won a chase this season so he is in good form.
#547
February 6th, 2009 12:17
Puzzled thanks for your research on Fundamentalist. Won 3m 1f at Aintree last October and fits so many trends. Like Daniel it was just one of those that for no reason had gone under the radar.
A crappy start to this Friday but Systems had me in bloody stitches re Corals quote ‘Exceptions to this are where a horse is balloted out of the race (Jockey Club Rule 125), or had no chance to win at the time the bet was struck (e.g. the horse was dead)’ BLOODY HILARIOUS reminded me of that Monty Python sketch.
#548
February 6th, 2009 12:21
What about of your horse was just stunned?
#549
February 6th, 2009 12:32
Now a separate post, to split it up from the prior fun post.
Something serious for us to consider this weekend, whilst we chomp at the bit, waiting on the weights, lol.
My Dad, God rest his lovely soul, was the original stats man in my life. Thanks to much of the brilliance on this site I can now get a lot of that numbercrunching and trends help on here.
However, I want to throw into the equation – where do we allow in our strong convictions to override the stats?
One of my proudest moments in my betting was a HUGE win on Silver Birch. I was a huge fan of his career esp his Welsh GN win. After he pulled out of the 06 nat due to injury, I carefuly watched his comeback and saw before the 07 that he was nicely and gradually falling back into form. My Dad stuck to his guns and stats and despite several conversations, it was ‘no, no, no!’. Glad to share that wonderful memory with you all.
Well I stuck to mine and the rest was history. Last year I nearly struck the same feat and was convinced a similar return to form from BC was a huge threat. Neither Silver nor BC would have fitted all of the stats on odds (SB) or on recent form (BC) and therfore fell outside the net.
So, the question I throw into the group is: Do we feel there is a time when strong instinct and opinion must override the stats, especially when it’s a horse with a great record, who may just return to form on the day? Thoughts please.
#550
February 6th, 2009 13:08
From my point of view, its not a case of ‘stats v instinct’ but a blend of them both and most crucially of all selecting the RIGHT stats. I ignore any 9/10, even 19/20 stats. Personally, as I have said before, this year I will be looking at;
aged 8-12
Won over 3 miles
weight of 11_02 or less
A run within the past 50 days (perhaps longer)
RPR of 145
I will not be ruling out a horse with 8 runs, because I have noticed a lot of big races going to unexposed horses this year, and the last 4 Grand National winners have had, 14,13,11 & 10 chase runs. I will not be ruling out a horse with only 2 chase wins either,as a lot of previous winners have had only 3, so it will not be long before one wins with just 2 (especially in light of the lower number of chase runs the winners seem to have been having.
Just the above 5 stats left me with 12 horses last year, 6 of which were obvious no hopers to me(inc. D’Argent)
I didnt want to back Cloudy Lane at 5/1 and I didnt want to back such an uncertain unproven jumper as Snowy Morning.
Backed the other 4, all ew, and got paid on 3 of them. Worked last year, and I will do it again this year and again and again until it lets me down.
SO to answer your question, you need both a knowledge of the stats and an opinion OF YOUR OWN having analysed the situation FOR YOURSELF.
AND, remember…
CORRELATION DOES NOT EQUAL CAUSATION.
#551
February 6th, 2009 14:02
This is the point i was trying to make earlier in the week but i also make Amberleigh House to be half french as well. and if you wanting to go back to the ‘grandparents of horses then 50% of the last ten winners had a french grandparent.
Its true that no horse with FR next to its name has won in over 100 years but the French are now breeding some top class stayers nowadays so why cant they win.
Nobody can ever give a reason as to why they cant win but all they do say is that they just haven’t won in blah blah blah.
one final stat for you all non frenchies to consider, Over the last 10 years there has been 40 placings.
Of those 40 placings 28 of them were filled by an irish horse, 6 by a British horse and 6 by a French horse.
If you rule out french horses because they dont stay then you may as well rule out british horses as well
#552
February 6th, 2009 14:16
Lets see who is giving it Blah Blah Blah after the race!!Stats are there to be broken,but Butlers Cabins form figures are very poor even allowing for connections trying to get its handicap mark down.Everyone is in such a hurry to find the winner and if we are not patient it will be very costly!!The only thing we should be doing at the moment is laying Denman win and place as it won’t run in the race!!Get outside and enjoy the snow and forget about the race over the weekend and everything will be alot clearer on tuesday.
#553
February 6th, 2009 16:33
Ladie snd Gents – some thoughts for tomorrow – given Albertas Run may not run and its Denmans first run back, what happens if Joe Lively wins again ?- hes already on 166 – if he wins hes gonna get thrown up to about 172 -173 . so his mark for the nat will surely be somewhere around 165 if hes lucky … if he then decides to turn up at aintree then surely thr top weight could easily be 165 – 166 which leaves the 11 stone marker at about 156 ! . i dont think this is a crazy as it sounds as that race tomorrow seems to have so manyy question marks about so many of the runners and JL goes there on the top of his game .. not outwith the realms of reason and something to bear in mind…
#554
February 6th, 2009 18:50
Sorry Wacky but my advise is to get the best price you can now on these three at least:
Butlers Cabin 20/1 Coral surely wont last 48 hours weights day (if you want a bet on BC take this price now!)
Hear The Echo 16/1 Coral /Lad
Black Apalachi 20/1 Coral
Also Southern Vic 33/1 WH/Tote but I think its price may hold up a bit longer.
#555
February 6th, 2009 19:05
On Fundamentalist…
He has Strong Gale in his breeding and apparently no horse has ever been placed with Strong Gale in his breeding (although I cannot vouch for this ‘statistic’)
Interestingly (if the stat is true) two fancied horses also have Strong Gale in their pedigree:
Hear The Echo
Southern Vic
Would be great to speak with a breeding expert to explain:
a) Why all French breds are considered a bad thing, but
b) Why Roselier is the exception, and
c) What stops Strong Gales winning at 4m 4f when they can win over 3m 5f, or
d) Is there more to it than that?
Answers on a postcard…
#556
February 6th, 2009 19:12
I would rather back Denman with a dodgy ticker than a horse that is bang out of form.Also why back a non runner?Saving my money til i know that i’ve climbed the right tree and not the Eiffel Tower!!!I want to see what happens in the Vodka chase and Eider chase as like i keep telling you all that nobody was that keen on Comply or Die until it won the Eider.I don’t want a 20/1 possible winner i want the winner and im sticking to what i’ve learnt in the past 4yrs since i found the TRENDS.Keep the banter up mate its great fun!!
#557
February 6th, 2009 20:16
I’m with Wacky. I’m sure many of us have got some decent prices on fancied horses but I have to admit, I was happy enough waiting last year and still got 20s on the winner! If I’d placed my bet this time last year, it would have been on a loser.
It’s going to be a fascinating build up this year with so many runners needing a good performance before the big race.
#558
February 6th, 2009 22:42
Pablo I’m far from a breeding expert, but if you some advice from a breeding novice here goes:
a) Why all French breds are considered a bad thing, but
Because the trueism goes the French don’t race their horses over long distances so don’t breed stamina into their horses. This may have been true 50 years ago but the current bloodstock from France is much better for staying chasers with FR horses winning lots of long distance races and have come very close to the GN several times too. I’m sure there is a good summary of it on this site from the admin somewhere.
b) Why Roselier is the exception, and
Roselier has sired 2 winners and other placed horses I believe, there is no scientific reason why just put a positive next to anything with Roselier in their breeding doesn’t mean back it just that it is a very nice plus to have.
c) What stops Strong Gales winning at 4m 4f when they can win over 3m 5f, or
Don’t know, Strong Gale was expected to sire great long distance chasers but they have a very poor GN record, if you like everything else about a horse I’d still back a Strong Gale bred horse (and have) but the historical stats say they don’t win.
d) Is there more to it than that?
Probably loads but breeding is only one small piece of the puzzle for me if it was everything D’Argent would have won last year as he had a very good breeding profile. For me the basic tried and trusted trends of weight age and form are far far more important than bloodstock.
#559
February 6th, 2009 22:46
wacky Says:
February 6th, 2009 at 7:12 pm
I would rather back Denman with a dodgy ticker than a horse that is bang out of form.Also why back a non runner?Saving my money til i know that i’ve climbed the right tree and not the Eiffel Tower!!!I want to see what happens in the Vodka chase and Eider chase as like i keep telling you all that nobody was that keen on Comply or Die until it won the Eider.I don’t want a 20/1 possible winner i want the winner and im sticking to what i’ve learnt in the past 4yrs since i found the TRENDS.Keep the banter up mate its great fun!!
That comment about CoD makes me laugh so hard wacky i just spat my beer out cos of it.
It was YOU who said and i quote wacky Says:
February 26th, 2008 at 9:36 pm
Hi Systems Man,I have to ask you what your reasoning behind backing Comply or Die? As most horses dont win a race after the weights are declared+ I cant remember a horse winning over 4 miles before the big day.Also i have grave doubts about the quality of the field it beat,would you back elvis returns in a grade 1 chase? I think you will find that very few (if any)horses have won over 4 miles in the same year.Hedgehunter,numbersix and silver birch all won over a longer distance at least 1 season before.
So i think you’ll find you didn’t think CoD had a chance last year after it won the eider but you came round in the end.
This year all we are saying is dont rule out French breds as there isn’t any logic in the trend.
PS Butlers cabin isnt the only French horse to run this year, systemsman is only saying if you bet on it now at the highest price it looks like it will ever be then if it doesnt run you will get your money back. if it does run it will have a cracking weight and prob go off either fav or 2nd fav.
#560
February 6th, 2009 23:04
Very good point and you are right that i wasn’t sure about comply or die until i applied all the trends about 2 weeks before the race.But this is why we all love this blog,as we can throw our different views at each other.Im only pulling some of your legs and it all goes towards us trying even harder to get our point across so everyone sees the light and backs the winner!!Believe me we will get there but we have to be guns and roses………..PATIENCE
#561
February 6th, 2009 23:13
well said brian,this wacky geaser does have some and i repeat some good input but so have alot of others who he seems to disrespect for their efforts and opions.look back to last year when he gave russell some grieve about snowy morning and slim pickings, and both as you know came very close. no they never won but did run crackers and i think you will find russ’s list was alot nearer to the result than his.not meant to be a which hunt just a observation,and if you read back this and last year some of the posters do seem to change there tune and jump on the band-wagon to suite.systems is a legend, but crisp, notelppa and birchy have all made good input and worked hard.agreee to disagree and respect.
#562
February 6th, 2009 23:25
Or Take That Wacky? lol
I am very intrigued as to what the weights will be this year. More so than other years as Denman has thrown a spanner in the works with his entry.
I just wish April 4th would hurry up!!!
#563
February 7th, 2009 01:53
Wacky and Stephen are right
Sometimes the winner is more obvious in the few days before the race
Brody – I agree but I’m now thinking that breeding might help turn a trends-based (my trends )short list into a shorter list either way (i.e. won’t stay / might stay)
I was left with around ten last year – then ruled out French breds and anything with blinkers and cheekpieces etc and came down to Cloudy Lane, Snowy Morning, Slim Pickings, King Johns Castle
Backed the last three because I didn’t fancy Cloudy Lane at the price and made a profit
…But missed the winner because of the blinkers trend
Perhaps each year one ‘trend’ might not longer apply
For instance Bobbyjo blew away the non-Irish trained horse in 1999
#564
February 7th, 2009 02:47
criteria:
run in previous 50 days
better than 8th last time out
between 4 to 6 runs in season
aged 8 to 12
carrying less than 11st 5lb
Slim Pickings 4th
FR Vodka Bleu b
FR L´Ami b
Snowy Morning 3rd
FR D´Argent b
fav Cloudy Lane 6th (didn’t fancy)
King Johns Castle 2nd
b Tumbling Dice
b Comply Or Die 1st (ruled out)
Idle Talk didn’t fancy
FR Kelami
#565
February 7th, 2009 10:16
Just a brief message to anyone who is laying denman for the GN,if it wins today i expect any talk of it running at Aintree will go out the window.Along with a sensible price to lay it at and if like me you are confident it won’t run,then lay it not to be placed so you don’t use up to much of your availabilitys on betfair.
#566
February 7th, 2009 10:20
WACKY 565,Lay Butlers Cabin after Denman is declared a non runner!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
#567
February 7th, 2009 13:37
just looked at hear the echos profile on racing post
13 chases 3 falls 1 unseated and a pulled up …..
13 starts ……… 5 failed finishes whats that something like 40% ???
just food for thought.
#568
February 7th, 2009 15:01
interesting to see HTE and S Vic have Strong Gale in there, thanks for repointing this one out…er…can’t remember who.
I think breeding is an important after thought, I am not convinced by these two horses at all and this adds to their list of negatives.
Strong Gale has produced many good 3+milers but not 4+milers, like the french thing this may end but it is a fair point to make.
Lots of people have been pushing HTE,(SV)and BC a bit much, in the interest of debate, reasons they may not win are here and it is important to make our own minds up, differing opinions is all it is.
It is true to say that BC has no form and that is pretty crucial, the idea that he is protecting his mark has to be a joke, the distraction of IF he gets in he’ll win and if he doesn’t you’ll get your money back is a bit odd, if he does get in and doesn’t win… oh I can’t imagine the fallout.( winking smiley face icon, I don’t have and should as it diffuses tension) Think it may be a case of people continuing his run last year in their minds…the what ifs!!!
Can’t we move on?! I am worried we will miss something with all this blinkered behaviour. But it has made me laugh how these arguements keep coming back, I too nearly choked on my beer last night when I dropped in! I think we could hit 1000 posts this time on BC alone!
Anywayz, I am interested in finding the horses just outside the occasional stat, this is definately the year for it.
Why not some of these 8 year olds like Abbeybranny or Notre Pere for example or horses that have made it round before (oh)and now have lower OR and better form, other frenchsters spring to mind L’ami and Mon Mome…
#569
February 7th, 2009 15:03
Guys – quick update on my Joe Lively post yesterday . Ive just read that the trainer has stated that if he is left at the top of the weights hes unlikely to take his chance as he is only a small horse only 15.3 hands high . i think its looking more and more likely topweight will be 158-160 .apologies if i lead any one in the wrong direction yest
#570
February 7th, 2009 16:01
well denmans return less then inspiring well beaten 2nd albeit after 10 months off , what are the odds on him not getting round even if he does line up at aintree??
#571
February 7th, 2009 16:10
Hope you all took my advice and layed denman for the National?Like dragonman says i don’t think it will get around jumping like that.You can’t take it away from denman that its been a fantastic horse.
#572
February 7th, 2009 16:23
indeed, heart ops are major.
its just 1st run and seemed pretty good on it,
but will he reach the same heights again.
Walking around before you could see the depth and breath in his chest had gone, his big bottom got him round!
#573
February 7th, 2009 16:25
I would have thought that after todays performance they would not risk taking Denman to Aintree,his jumping was not fluent, he just was not his old self, and what a poor display from Joe lively i would have thought that he would not now make the trip to Aintree also….so this could mean that the 2 top weights will be absent.
#574
February 7th, 2009 17:03
joe lively is out of strong gale, again,
before I knew this I noticed in one of his recnt good wins, that it looked like his distance limit, around 3 and a half miles.
His main aim I think has always rightly been cheltenham, anyway. I think his poor performance today only 14days after winning in heavy ground is understandable.
#575
February 7th, 2009 17:04
Well, it looks like it’s down to Mouse Morris to decide who will be topweight. Madison Du Berlais will now be weighted out of it so unless War of Attrition is entered to help Hear the Echo, it’ll be Cloudy Lane on 159. Good for Butler’s Cabin. This result today is a plus for Air Force One’s form. Decent place chances I reckon, 9 or 10 of the top 11 are likely to withdraw now.
#576
February 7th, 2009 17:54
I totally agree with KJ. Let’s re-calibrate and see all runners with fresh eyes and open minds.
Out of form horses with a great past are well worth keeping in mind, but certainly not getting stuck on and can lead to us (excuse pun) getting blinkered to fresh talent and those still to reveal all their cards fully which may show in upcoming races.
I have a strong feeling that a few horses are still to come through strongly and stake their claim for our attentions this year.
#577
February 7th, 2009 18:04
It’s great to see champions in any sport, when they’ve earned the right by winning again and again, year after year, be a bit cocky, you know, but I absolutely hate those people who are cocky when they’ve achieved no more or no less than any number of previous champions in their sport. When was Denman going to run in the National? After his second or third gold cup win!
To be fair I think Nicholls has dealt with Denman in a very humble way, good for him. The ‘Tank’ was fantastic last year, great for the sport. A legend? No way, not yet. And personally I hope that if Denman doesn’t satisfy Nicholls on the gallops we don’t have to see this very brave horse struggling for the minor places in the Gold Cup, or suffering an even worse fate, at Cheltenham.
Can I christen Madison Dy Berlais the ‘bulldozer’. I wonder what weight he’ll get? If he produces more of the same in the gold cup might Pipe be tempted?
A decent run for Trabolgan. Would now need to show some form next time out, he’s entered in races on the next couple of Saturdays, but he will surely get a nice weight now. Was 148, might lose another couple of pounds.
#578
February 7th, 2009 18:13
Good post Crisp – ill be keeping my eye on trabolgan – he was on my “ones to watch” list . if he comes down another few pounds then ur right hes not out of it yet .. Joe Lively is OUT for the season so its looking more and more like a top weight of approx 158-160 … unless mr pipe decides to throw madison into the mix…!! in which case maybe 162 -164 ??
#579
February 7th, 2009 18:34
yep, one eye on trabolgan f me too.
thanks for the support Showlad, thought I was gonna get ripped to shreds. Can’t wait for tuesday, noticed on “Guess the weights” thread, how lttle people think COD will get, hope last years race hasn’t finished him as the gold cup may have finshed Denman!!!
#580
February 7th, 2009 18:49
If the top weight is Cloudy Lane on 159 as I have suspected it would be all along then the trends stand!
You cant find the winner? It could be its been obvious from the start and I’ll give you a clue initials BC!!! (but I would still have a short list of say 5/6 to play safe)
#581
February 7th, 2009 19:48
we heard you!!!
got to say again apparently, how can you feel so certain with no recent form this horse will win!.. you can’t, so please leave it, us lot who feel he is not the one ‘necessarily’ want to move on! look in more detail at others, wait for some interesting upcoming races. By the way, what happened to your top of the stats winner Garde Champetre? gone off him?
#582
February 7th, 2009 21:01
Well. What a day today has been.
Sad to see Denman not his old self. But I am pleased to be fair as it means it is highly unlikely he will line up at Aintree. Joe Lively will obviously not now either. So it’s looking like a normal top weight around the 160 mark, phew.
This means that it should be another cracking renewal and one more akin to the norm than the exception thankfully.
The weights will be a false list on Tuesday with Denman still in there but everyone will be able to work out what each horse will get once the unlikely runners are removed.
#583
February 7th, 2009 22:42
KJ my own short list was posted on February 3rd (the January 31st post was based only on trends in which Garde Champetre had a set of perfect trends – it was not the same as my own short list which uses trends and other factors)). In my own list (which willl be reviewed as we go along) Garde Champetre was placed 7th best due to more than one 40/1 quote on Oddschecker.com.
KJ you state with regard to Butlers Cabin “the idea that he is protecting his mark has to be a joke”. Well its a fact that over the last few years most top trainers do protect their best GN runners OR mark before the weights are out (many use Hurdles races) and many do not have a good run until after weights day (not surprising is it?. This really was a “joke” statement on your part.
I must say i have valued your interesting and enlightening remarks on breeding which I would like to see more of. But please dont ask those who back BC/HTE/BA etc to stop advocating their cause as many new people to this site may only read the last 20 – 50 posts or so.
#584
February 7th, 2009 23:42
As one of the few who had BC as a fav LAST year, maybe I can shed a touch of objective balancing.
BC – great horse with a lot of the right boxes ticked – absolutely. Great run last year. Could he be another Clan Royal – destined to nearly but not quite?
However after such a long run out of form could many legitimately discount him? Absolutely.
So who’s right?
NEITHER – it comes down to personal opinion. What I will say is perhaps the pushing of BC has been somewhat OTT, trying to lend a feeling of ‘you’re mad if you don’t see him as the winner’.
Maybe the answer is for us all to be a bit more gentle and respectful with our tips and opinons, ye?
We’re creating a FOR and AGAINST BC website, whilst maybe the winner is trotting by, well out of view…
Peace guys
#585
February 7th, 2009 23:49
With regards to Butlers Cabin I can see both sides of the arguement for and against him. What I would say is this – FIRSTLY his for figures are 808 I think so presuming he doesnt have a run again before the national can we then rule it out on the basis it has not been placed this season. SECONDLY – and again a big if but if it doesnt run before the national it is then going against the ‘must have run within the last 50 days’ trend. As I have said this is just another IF but if it doesnt run before the national then it must go against the trends.
#586
February 8th, 2009 00:13
Showlad is right we are getting carried away in our search for the winner.As i’ve said before we have trends that we cannot see yet, as in whether the horse runs over 20 days from the race or under 50 days from the race. Then 4-6 runs and a top 7 finish last time out, so in the words of Stevie G ‘CALM DOWN’
#587
February 8th, 2009 12:07
People may have read this already regarding Denman but if anyone hasnt this is on the RP Website;
Denman may not be seen in action before the Festival but Nicholls confirmed that the Grand National is still under serious consideration and that a more conclusive decision would be made once the weights are published this Tuesday.
“I haven’t ruled out the National,” said the trainer, adding: “It gives us another option should something stop us from going to the Gold Cup.
“That’s not to say he wouldn’t run in both but if he had a hard race then it would come too soon.
“It will be interesting to see what the weights are and once we have looked at them I will sit down with Harry Findlay and Paul Barber and discuss it.”
#588
February 8th, 2009 12:10
RE weights – what odds on a slow workout for Denman was the plan yesterday to see what the handicapper would give him on Tuesday? Crazier things have happened…
#589
February 8th, 2009 12:45
Good news for those that fancy State of Play from his trainer:
“He is in the Grand National this year and we will be keeping an eye on that as it could just be the ideal place to go now,” said the trainer.
“I can’t see any point in going anywhere near Cheltenham and if the National came right, we’d get in there off 10 stone.
“I think he’s had a greatlittle season so far but it was always my intention not to make the same mistake as last year in running him too often.
“I’ll look at the Scottish National and the Whitbread (bet365 Gold Cup) at Sandown.
“But while I have not cleared it with the owners, I just think Aintree could be the race that really suits him.”
Unless Denman runs he’ll probably have nearer 11 stone than 10
Although, David Pipe has previously stated that Madison Du Berlais would go for the National and, if so, he was rated 159 before he beat Denman yesterday and would likely go up a few pounds as a result so top weight could be a few pounds above 160
#590
February 8th, 2009 13:06
Pablo im with you on state of play – either with or without denman i think he’ll sneak in below the 11 stone marker and possesses a touch of class as well…
he also passes a lot of the trends from systems man and crisp…
some of the noises from paul nicholls suggest its no formality that denman will miss the nat … its like a form of physchological torture trying to work this out…:-) lets see what mr nicholls has to say on tue after the weights come out –
Ive updated my list to include my will. who if denman runs has a lovely racing weight
My current thoughts
1. Southern Vic
2. Hear the Echo
3. Himalayan Trail
4. Garde Champetre
5, State of Play
6 . Black Apalachi
7, Butlers Cabin
8. Darkness
9. Parsons Legacy
Ones to watch
Darkness
Trabolgan
War of Attrition – If Denman Runs
My Will – If Denman Runs
#591
February 8th, 2009 13:11
Silver Birch – if Denman does run what about Comply Or Die with the blinkers back on?
He’s entered at Haydock next week and a decent run (staying on nicely or something) with the blinkers on and he’d have to have a chance, no?
#592
February 8th, 2009 13:20
Pablo yes in agreement with you – i was thinking that last night . I backed Madison Du Berlais yest as i thought he was overpriced and also as i heard somebody mentioning on the tv that the pipe stable was back with a bang. That being the case it would not be the biggest surprise to see comply or die bounce back to form and the ultimate irony here is that if denman turns up i reckon comply or die could carry even LESS weight than last year . when was the last time that happened …? im not a great believer that a horse can win it two years in a row (other than the great rummy) but by a strange and unusual set of circumstances i dont think a horse potentially could ever have a better chance..
#593
February 8th, 2009 13:44
Weights Day (2 days to go lol):
Where do we reckon the very first list will be posted up?
Racing Post ot Sporting Life websites? Aintree’s website?
#594
February 8th, 2009 14:53
Nice list Silver birch will no take a look at State Of Play as we are almost in total agreenment on short lists. Will let you know waht i think
#595
February 8th, 2009 15:29
Any body hear that Silver Birch won a point to point on Saturday. Seen his OR as 148, is this correct? Probably didn’t face a high standard of opposition but nevertheless he appears very well. I must say his trainers enthusiasm is getting to me!
Found news article on BBC website, Mouse Morris talking about Heat The Echo’s Irish Grand National win last year;
“He came right the week before Cheltenham and he travelled very well today and jumped super. He is a real National-type horse and he would have gone to Aintree this year only he wouldn’t have got in. The plan is to go to Aintree next year.”
Blimey, if they fancied him for last year’s the National, as a 7yr old, before his Irish National win …
#596
February 8th, 2009 16:14
Like Showlad gentley put it I just want to open the picture out again and frankly distract everyone from having another kick off with wacky (with this french business…shhh)
I agree BC has a chance but alot of others do too and felt we need to pull our thoughts together on these too…seems to be happening, all is well.
#597
February 8th, 2009 16:23
getting good!
like your new revised list Birchy, the with Denman saga continues. If he’s in, then these are my classy contenders too and COD ofcourse,
hope he gets reinvigourated and the blinkers give him his powers back! all is crossed. he could have the biggest (lightest)back to back shot at it ever!!
#598
February 8th, 2009 20:02
I wish Paul Nicholls and the owners of Denman would just leave the National to the horses that should be in it. No one wants to see Denman run and ruin the race in terms of how odd the weights will look. Stick to Gold Cups thanks!
#599
February 8th, 2009 22:06
Showlad – it says on the rp website tonight that the weights will be unveiled at 11am on tue on racingpost.com .. not long to go now
#600
February 8th, 2009 23:07
Crikey great ‘lil scoop Silver Birch – thanks
#601
February 9th, 2009 10:56
DENMAN MISSES NATIONAL;
DENMAN will not run in the John Smith’s Grand National following a comprehensive defeat for last season’s Gold Cup winner in his return to action at Kempton on Saturday.
Connections of the nine-year-old, who was 10-1 favourite for the race with Ladbrokes, have decided not to go Aintree this year.
Trainer Paul Nicholls said: “I met with Paul Barber and Harry Findlay on Sunday night and we decided not to aim Denman at the National.
“I want to concentrate on getting him right for the Gold Cup. I phoned Phil Smith, the handicapper, on Sunday to let him no our intentions and to give him time to adjust the National weights.”
Weights for the Aintree showpiece will be unveiled on racingpost.com at 11am on Tuesday.
#602
February 9th, 2009 11:15
Nice one Dan!
#603
February 9th, 2009 11:55
That makes life a bit easier! Now if the other 6 horses rated 160+ would kindly do the decent thing we can get stuck into finding the winner.
#604
February 9th, 2009 12:06
Thanks Dan
It just shows you though, that they were seriously considering him for the GN. Otherwise if it was as some last minute ‘red herring in the weights’ hey would have been just left in.
Thanks to Paul Nicholls for being considerate.
Now, I wonder if any others who are not serious re their participation, will show the same consideration..
#605
February 9th, 2009 12:29
Thanks Dan. Can anyone confirm Joe Lively’s withdrawal as well?
#606
February 9th, 2009 12:33
Answered my own question – Joe Lively, a leading fancy for both the Cheltenham Gold Cup and Grand National, is out for the season after sustaining an injury when finishing a disappointing fifth behind Madison Du Berlais and Denman at Kempton on Saturday.The Colin Tizzard-trained 10-year-old is currently being treated for a serious cut to a leg at a veterinary practice in Reading and is not expected to return to his Dorset stable for two or three days.
#607
February 9th, 2009 12:39
Like the heavy snow later today its looking brighter for us all.
Re: Denman – corrcet decison by trainer. Will he finish in the Gold Cup?
Just a few more heavy weights to withdraw and we will be there for our trends – getting excited already.
#608
February 9th, 2009 14:52
Here’s a poser for everybody, what range of OR’s would you currently consider ‘safe’ for an antepost bet that fits the trends and will be in the handicap proper?
Key trend is at least 11 lbs below top weight. With Denman out, Exotic Dancer will be allocated top weight but will probably not run. Therefore the highest that top OR will be is Snoopy Loopy on 165. Barring injury the lowest that top OR will be is Cloudy Lane on 159.
If Snoopy Loopy is top weight then anything less than 141 is out of the handicap. If Cloudy Lane is top weight then anything above 148 risks being less than 11 lbs below top weight.
Is the ‘safe’ range for anteppost bets therefore only horses with OR in the range 141-148?
#609
February 9th, 2009 14:54
What does everyone think about the chance of Madison Du Berlais entering? After Saturday, surely he’ll have to be rated mid 160s? Given Denman’s exit, they won’t want to run him with topweight after the GC and possibly the RP Chase, he can’t be expected to then run 4 1/2 miles with 11-10? Anyone disagree?
#610
February 9th, 2009 15:09
Great news about Denman!!
They finally saw sense and left The National to horses that should be contesting it. The weights will look that bit more sweeter now.
I can’t see Madison Du Berlais running in the race either now, as you say Notelppa. Would be top weight and the horses target will have surely changed to the Gold Cup after the way he won at the weekend.
#611
February 9th, 2009 15:16
Madison rated 172 by the RP not seen if the official rating is the same. After that run the GC has to be Madison’s only target really, can’t see Pipe making him run the national only three weeks later off a huge weight.
Can’t see Snoopy Loopy running personally was only entered if Denman was in I think like most of the high rated horses.
For me the highest guaranteed runner is Cloudy Lane/Snow Morning area. War of Attrition to the only potential spanner in the works as the trainer might hang him out to dry to keep Hear the Echo as low as possible in the weights.
#612
February 9th, 2009 15:36
Hope Mouse Morris does enter W.o.A. Come on Echo! Take the 16s before it disappears. The only horse who’s shorter on Betfair than the bookies. I see Coral have seen sense and shortened BC.
#613
February 9th, 2009 16:11
notelppa, personally i would not take 36s on heard the echo
1 butlers cabin
2 himalayan trail
3 garde champetre
4 cornish sett
watching for parsons legacy, hot weld and state of play
hte will fall fall fall fall
#614
February 9th, 2009 16:14
agreed sing when your winning fall 4 sure.
#615
February 9th, 2009 16:26
roll on 2moro,apart from obvious contenders,
how bout king harold,
endless power,
mon mome,
garde champetre,lami,silver birch,nadover,all aim
at cross country first day cheltenham fest.
#616
February 9th, 2009 17:02
Any particular reasoning or logic to that assertion guys? Or is that just what you would like to happen? To be fair to H.T.E. although he has fallen three times the last time was two years ago and he’s completed a number of chases since with a single F or UR. Fairyhouse is a stiff jumping test and he came through that fine, of course the national is another kettle of fish and he wouldn’t be the first Irish National winner to fall, remember Point Barrow after he’d been punted into a short priced fav. And fell at the first, ouch!
#617
February 9th, 2009 17:03
should have said ‘without a single F or UR’
#618
February 9th, 2009 17:15
I backed Point Barrow….ouch
#619
February 9th, 2009 17:17
That was one of my darkest days Grand National wise Brody when Point Barrow fell at the first
I had £50ew at 33/1 and he came tumbling down. I was gutted!!
#620
February 9th, 2009 17:51
Well thats a great start to this years national and i hope you all took my advice and LAYED Denman?That was like taking candy from a baby!!!Now thats in the bag its time to get stuck into these FRENCH BREDS or part french breds it makes no difference!!!If you follow trends then keep the faith and the holiday in the Maldives awaits!!Roll on home time 2mrw..
#621
February 9th, 2009 18:33
It was stated in the Racing Post today that Butlers Cabin(sorry I mentioned THAT name)would not be allocated a weight based on his OR 135 (he too rewatched the video I have recommended to all on You Tube with BC challanging for the lead when he fell in 2008). Its more likely to be based on a OR 140 (my guess)or thereabouts (hope its not too much extra) as the handicapper wants him in the Race!!!! (watch the price tumble in the next three days).
#622
February 9th, 2009 18:42
Advise:
If you want 16/1 on Hear The Echo get on today (16/1 at Corals)- it will be gone this time tomorrow.
If you want 20/1 on Butlers Cabin its too late – best price now 16/1 (I did advise taking the 20/1 a few days ago)).
Price update later tonight and will compare tomorrows changes
#623
February 9th, 2009 18:59
oh wacky!
well done with sticking to your guns with Denman. Glad to see the trainer has kindly done the best for the horse.. and us!
Mind you this year is still a minefield, hoping after tmw this wheat chaffing is going to be easier and then someone (horse) puts in a good show.
As for this french thing ..your stirrer
it is gonna happen, you know it, I know it, respect you have decided to stick firmly to this stat as its stood f 100yrs! but when horses aren’t truely french at all you have to admit its a bit of a nonsense.
Did you know for example Bindaree, sired by Roselier FR, and his parents were french and their parents were french….definately arf french! Know you are not for changing, yet
but thought I’d have a little try, oh well..
One year soon u gonna loose, but you know that, I know that…he knows that everyone!
#624
February 9th, 2009 19:05
interesting handicapper going to get BC in,
everyone including me, wants to see what may have happened if he didn’t fall, all I want to know is if or who Tonys on, as I can’t back that! ha, ha
#625
February 9th, 2009 19:18
WACKY will you please cut the crap about butlers cabin.i know you find it hard to keep it shut,but i know you can when you try.remember 25/1/09 SUBLIMITY and i told you brave inca,never heard a murmer off you did we.you do have very valuble input but boy can you be annoying just like that ian beale off eastenders.as for did we take your advice on denman, systems man and alot of us thought the same so please stop blowing your own.
#626
February 9th, 2009 19:21
Howdi folks… hey systems man .. thanks for the update on butlers cabin . im just getting a bit concerned phil smith is beginning to make up his own rules now as he goes along… it doesnt seem really fair to other connections who may also have other horses lurking on 135 to just whack bc up 5lbs because “he wants him in the race”…what kind of precedent is that setting ? anyway .. aside from that he’ll still be worth a bet off 140 where i reckon he will carry approx 10-6 which is a lovely weight….
#627
February 9th, 2009 19:27
Never mind Ian Beale off Eastenedres, some are going on in this blog more lke Pat Butcher or Dot Cotton, like a lot o fishwives.
If Wacky is adamant on 100 year French stat – fine.
If some are adamant it’s gonna fall in 09 – fine.
Room for us all.
Let’s keep the humour going and not drop to the depths with spiteful comments.
Roll on 11 am tomorrow
I will be posting my provisional post-weights shortlist soon.
#628
February 9th, 2009 19:28
Hi KJ,Me a Stirrer?Im just stating facts my friend and i’m not backing down especially with that Donkey Butlers cabin!!!! Hope it gets enough weight as there maybe a few red faces 2mrw!!LAY LAY LAY
#629
February 9th, 2009 19:31
I have to agree Birchy, although we all want to see what would have/could have happened last year, it is unfair and unprofessional to aid a horse into the line up, when his recent form has just not have been good enough to secure a place on merit.
#630
February 9th, 2009 19:33
I reckon im now down to the final 6 .anyone else now trimmed there list after the denman announcement..? i think its beginning to get a bit clearer now….:-) i hope..!
1. Southern Vic
2. Hear the Echo
3. Butlers Cabin
4. Himalayan Trail
5. Garde Champetre
6. State of Play
#631
February 9th, 2009 19:36
For fun, can everyone give me there thoughts on who will win the GN in the event of a mudbath!!!
I’m too excited!!!!
#632
February 9th, 2009 19:40
Calm Down R n R its friendly banter and im only pulling Systemsmans leg!!If you don’t want my opinion don’t read my texts!!Just think if BC wins the national you can give me a roasting!!Keep smiling and come and try my FISH & CHIPS on albert square soon!!!
#633
February 9th, 2009 19:43
great list siver birch,except take top 2 off and 3-6 spot on.
add cornish sett as dark horse
#634
February 9th, 2009 19:53
wacky, good answer i like it
#635
February 9th, 2009 20:15
re Wacky – my FISH & CHIPS on albert square soon!!! Bloody Hilarious – now that’s more like it guys, ha, ha.
KJ Bloodbath for me wudv been Black Ap, but maybe too high in weights. Cornish Sett’s ability to stay longer than the Mother-In-Law may prevail in mudbath, as he’ll be on a better weight
Now guys..T’was the night before Christmas Eve.. that’s what it’s like initt? Can’t wait til 11am, already working out how to keep myself occupied in the morning til then, lol.
Now I have something serious to ask..something fun and interesting to bring to the table..this will keep us occupied tonight (if u get a mo to answer – would be much appreciated). So, here goes:
Could we please compile a list of front runners, who have been stated/rumoured to not be aiming for the GN.
Eg I read Notre Pere not heading for GN till 2010. So if we can post up those deemed unlikely for the GN and the reason why, the next person to add another horse to the list can cut and paste the previous and add theirs. That way we get an evolving list of those who are doubtful runners. Would be handy, yes? So I’ll start list in my next post ‘GN 2009 doubtful runners’ and then if you know of a doubtful horse add to the list.
OK, here goes..
#636
February 9th, 2009 20:16
GN 2009 Doubtful Runners
NOTRE PERE – Touted to be aimed at 2010 GN
#637
February 9th, 2009 20:44
I’m soo too excited, the mud scenario, I want to know, not mudlarking! and Yes, it is raining here, seemingly could go on for months.
You see other than backing Black Aps and Cornish what seems like ages ago,
I’m still no closer, unless like other years I already got it (never confident like others here, but often I win! BA and Cornish fans) All favourites here and my early enthusiasums have faults, can’t seperate them, the weather hasn’t helped, was thinking may be the most certain aspect, soggy.
tmw is still tmw…can’t wait for some weighty clarity of sorts. Distracting myself here trying to start up some potentially useful fun..
So what about the battle of the mud?
Madison loves it, who else, black aps!?.. but will they stay, will BC come thru in these conditions, irish will surely prevail!? what about cornish phew maybe I got this one covered, just seen Showlad agrees! hoorah thanks f that, anyone else while we wait?
who shall we crown the long distance mud champ!
As for your own very helpful distraction fun Showlad, Notre Pere is the only definate one I can remember at mo sorry.
#638
February 9th, 2009 21:02
Isn’t Garde rumoured to be main aim Chelts?
#639
February 9th, 2009 21:06
PS you’re bloody hilarious KJ, lol.
Just noticed Black Ap driftin a bit on betfair and now on Blue Sq and Ladbrokes too.. r they anticipatin’ him being punished for Beechers win at weights 2mo?
#640
February 9th, 2009 21:17
OK so here it is. The Eve of Weights Follow the Money update (an alternative to trends)
This is mainly based around the four High Street bookies (Corals/Tote/Lad/WHill)but reflects all the other bookies as well.
Most money and contraction in pric is(in no order):
1. Hear The Echo 14/1 – 16/1 (Corals)
2. Butlers Cabin 14/1 – 16/1 (corals)
Others contracting with one of the big four are (in no order):
3. Cant Buy Time
4. Himalayan Trail
5. Simon
6. My Will
7. Star De Mohaison
8. Kilbeggan Blade
9. Garde Champetre
Nice to see so many of our trends horses in these top 9 who are contracting.
The top five in the market (lowest price) are:
1. Hear the Echo
2. Butlers Cabin
3. Black Apalachi
4. Comply Or Die
5. Snowy Morning
Will be intersting to compare this with any changes late tomorrow evening (wil post update).
You are all invited round my cyber space tomorrow for a “barbie” and a chat on the weights – on second thoughts due to the snow we will just have to meet up on here!
#641
February 9th, 2009 21:22
is there possibly a “snowy morning” in prospect again
#642
February 9th, 2009 22:02
on the Butlers cabin fench thing , the way i look at it is this …….. i’m not a horse person and by no means an expert but …..
surely horses are bred for certain characteristics to do with the races they will be aimed for i dont know stature , size , temprement ??? just guessing ..
so if butlers cabin was bred with french racing in mind at french race tracks however the two may differ from english racing and tracks , then wacky is surely correct
however if his mother say was taken to france to breed with a horse that was housed in france and not necessarily a french race horse per say and brought back here shortly after birth then surely he could be the exception to the rule?
#643
February 9th, 2009 22:03
I think Butlers Cabin will get in around 10st 0lb Yeah I made a cock up in the weights comp and posted 10st 10lb for some stupid reason.
If BC is around 10st I just hope he gets in,at the moment I am hoping he gets 2/3lb more so he does get into the 40.
If he does I`ll be having a bit on tomorrow.
Last year Boyles matched your 1st bet up to £50
which I put on C o D at 25/1,and will looking for a similar deal with one of the bookies tomorrow for BC if he has over 10st 2lb.
#644
February 9th, 2009 22:23
Exotic Dancer tops the list now with an OR of 174, so even if he drops that to 172/170 and puts Butler’s Cabin up to 140, that’s still a 30lbs difference. So there is no chance he will have 10st or above tomorrow. But once the top few drop out it will all change of course.
#645
February 9th, 2009 22:45
Stephen,thanks for pointing that out.
I will just have to wait for a punt on the race.
Although I have had a nibbble on Parsons Legacy
on betfair at around 120.
Anyone have any thoughts PL will get ?
#646
February 9th, 2009 22:47
Thats what weight Parsons Legacy will get ?
#647
February 9th, 2009 23:01
Hmm Parsons Legacy is OR 146 at the moment, which could leave him around the 10st mark tomorrow in my opinion.
But no use guessing. We only have to wait until tomorrow at 11am to find out what Phil Smith has him and all others at
#648
February 9th, 2009 23:27
Showlad im fairly sure that Cane Brake won’t be running.Had a tip off from PAT in the Chippie last week!!!!!!!!
#649
February 9th, 2009 23:30
What we dont know is who else rang Phil Smith to say they have withdrawn (Exotic Dancer)?. All will be revealed tomorrow.
You wont see Butlers on 10 stone something until some of the top weights drop out (like War Of Attrition).
I think Black Apalachi is one for the mud – but its a good idea to have one in any short list if backing early (remember Earth Summit in 1998 (I payed for my sons computer at Uni with that one and a UK holiday). Hope he dosnt get too much weight tomorrow.
#650
February 10th, 2009 00:01
Sticking my neck out here – main selections so far:
State of Play
Simon
Abbeybraney
Longer prices:
Fleet Street
Brooklyn Brownie
King Harald
#651
February 10th, 2009 00:02
cripes! things gone for a spin on oddschecker,
preweights mania!
interesting that just a few are holding steady at 33s or under, could mean anything, but I think it shows these horses still respected as classy and dangerous even after indifferent runs etc. I like them all
COD
Character Building
Hot Weld
State of Play
#652
February 10th, 2009 10:26
tick tock….tick tock….
#653
February 10th, 2009 12:00
He’s late!!
#654
February 10th, 2009 12:03
..For a very important date
#655
February 10th, 2009 12:03
Weights for the John Smith’s Grand National
EXOTIC DANCER (FR) 9-11-10 Jonjo O’Neill
MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 8-11-08 David Pipe
SNOOPY LOOPY (IRE) 11-11-05 Peter Bowen
STAR DE MOHAISON (FR) 8-11-05 Paul Nicholls
NOTRE PERE (FR) 8-11-04 Jim Dreaper IRE
NOZIC (FR) 8-11-03 Paul Nicholls
AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 7-11-02 BCharlie Mann
CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02 Donald McCain Jnr
AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (IRE) 11-11-01 Noel Meade IRE
WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-01 Mouse Morris IRE
CHELSEAHARBOUR(IRE) 9-11-00 Tom Mullins IRE
IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 8-11-00 Nigel Twiston Davies
SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-00 Willie Mullins IRE
CANE BRAKE (IRE) 10-10-13 Tom Taaffe IRE
KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-10-13 Nigel Twiston-Davies
ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13 Carl Llewellyn
COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12 Pipe
GWANAKO (FR) 6-10-12 Paul Nicholls
MONKERHOSTIN (FR) 12-10-12 Philip Hobbs
OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12 Nigel Twiston-Davies
STAN (NZ) 10-10-12 VenetiaWilliams
BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-10-11 Dessie Hughes IRE
HEAR THE ECHO (IRE) 8-10-11 Mouse Morris IRE
ONE COOL COOKIE (IRE) 8-10-11 Charlie Swan IRE
PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-10-11 Tom O’Leary IRE
BALLYFITZ 9-10-10 Nigel Twiston-Davies
KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 10-10-10 Arthur Moore IRE
MIKO DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 9-10-10 Robert & Sally Alner
MY WILL (FR) 9-10-10 Paul Nicholls
EUROTREK (IRE) 13-10-09 Paul Nicholls
L’ANTARTIQUE (FR) 9-10-09 Ferdy Murphy
STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08 Evan Williams
BIG FELLA THANKS 7-10-07 Nicholls
MON MOME (FR) 9-10-06 VenetiaWilliams
OPERA MUNDI (FR) 7-10-06 Paul Nicholls
SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-06 Gordon Elliott IRE
BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05 Jonjo O’Neill
HOBBSHILL 10-10-05 Charles Egerton
OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 9-10-05 Charlie Swan IRE
PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-04 Philip Hobbs
REVEILLEZ 10-10-04 Jonjo O’Neill
ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 8-10-03 Howard Johnson
ENDLESS POWER (IRE) 9-10-03 Jim Goldie
FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-03 Nigel Twiston-Davies
GOLDEN FLIGHT(FR) 10-10-03 Nicky Henderson
L’AMI (FR) 10-10-03 Enda Bolger IRE
SIMON 10-10-03 John Spearing
BATTLECRY 8-10-02 Nigel Twiston-Davies
CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-02 Paul Nicholls
FLEET STREET 10-10-02 Nicky Henderson
MUSICA BELLA (FR) 9-10-02 Francois Cottin FR
CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-01 Jonjo O’Neill
DARKNESS 10-10-01 Charles Egerton
IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-01 Willie Mullins IRE
RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01 Keith Reveley
SILVERBURN (IRE) 8-10-01 Paul Nicholls
SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01 Ted Walsh IRE
TRABOLGAN (IRE) 11-10-01 Nicky Henderson
ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00 Peter Bowen
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00 J Enda Bolger IRE
OEDIPE (FR) 7-10-00 Nicky Henderson
HOT WELD 10-9-13 Ferdy Murphy
KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13 Tom George
BROOKLYNBROWNIE (IRE) 10-9-12 Malcolm Jefferson
CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-9-12 John Quinn
CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 10-9-12 Jimmy Mangan IRE
HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12 Jimmy Mangan IRE
PIRAYA (FR) 6-9-12 David Pipe
TUMBLING DICE (IRE) 10-9-12 Tom Taaffe IRE
ARTEEA (IRE) 10-9-11 David Pipe
CERIUM (FR) 8-9-11 Paul Murphy
IDLE TALK (IRE) 10-9-11 Donald McCain Jnr
KELAMI (FR) 11-9-11 Lisa Williamson
ZABENZ (NZ) 12-9-11 Philip Hobbs
ICE TEA (IRE) 9-9-10 Donald McCain Jnr
MALJIMAR (IRE) 9-9-10 Nick Williams
COMPANERO (IRE) 9-9-09 Johnson Howard Johnson
IRON MAN (FR) 8-9-09 Peter Bowen
MATTOCK RANGER (IRE) 9-9-09 Noel Meade IRE
NICHE MARKET (IRE) 8-9-09 Bob Buckler
POMME TIEPY (FR) 6-9-09 Willie Mullins IRE
BAGAN (FR) 10-9-08 Martin Todhunter
BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 8-9-08 Nigel Twiston-Davies
BIBLE LORD (IRE) 8-9-08 Andrew Turnell
D’ARGENT (IRE) 12-9-08 Alan King
DIX VILLEZ (FR) 10-9-08 Paul Nolan IRE
FLINTOFF (USA) 8-9-08 VenetiaWilliams
PATSY HALL (IRE) 9-9-08 Tony MartinIRE
HOMER WELLS (IRE) 11-9-07 Willie Mullins IRE
IN THE LOOP(IRE) 11-9-07 Roy Wilson IRE
KING HARALD (IRE) 11-9-07 Pie Mark Bradstock
LOTHIAN FALCON 10-9-07 Peter Maddison
NADOVER (FR) 8-9-07 Charlie Mann
OULART 10-9-07 Dessie Hughes IRE
PAK JACK (FR) 9-9-07 Richard Phillips
SEYMOURWELD 9-9-07 Charles Pogson
GALLANT APPROACH (IRE) 10-9-06 Charles Egerton
HOOPY (IRE) 7-9-06 Gordon Elliott IRE
NINE DE SIVOLA (FR) 8-9-06 Ferdy Murphy
TOM SAYERS (IRE) 11-9-06 Philip Hobbs
OODACHEE 10-9-04 Charlie Swan IRE
KINGS ADVOCATE (IRE) 9-9-03 Tom Taaffe IRE
DUN DOIRE (IRE) 10-9-02 Tony Martin IRE
LE TOSCAN (FR) 9-9-02 David Pipe
OUT THE BLACK (IRE) 11-9-02 Philip Hobbs
PUNTAL (FR) 13-9-02 David Pipe
SEA DIVA (IRE) 9-9-02 Dessie Hughes IRE
WITHOUT A DOUBT 10-9-02 Carl Llewellyn
YOU’RE SPECIAL (USA) 12-9-01 Ferdy Murphy
ALEXANDERTHEGREAT (IRE) 11-9-00 VenetiaWilliams
EMMA JANE (IRE) 9-9-00 Willie Mullins IRE
MILANDEUX MILLE (FR) 7-9-00 David Pipe
BALLYTRIM (IRE) 8-8-11 Willie Mullins IRE
ROYAL ROSA (FR) 10-8-11 Howard Johnson
SANDHURST(IRE) 9-8-11 Edgar Byrne IRE
LORD KILLESHANRA (IRE) 10-8-10 Colin Tizzard
LYSANDER (GER) 10-8-10 Ian Williams
MALKO DE BEAUMONT (FR) 9-8-10 Alan Brown
PASS ME BY 10-8-08 Suzy Smith
MONTMISERE (FR) 13-8-07 Paul Murphy
#656
February 10th, 2009 12:07
Crikey Butler’s in already! Obviously took great account of last year’s run and previous record..
#657
February 10th, 2009 12:15
So 70th line, and safe line should draw there, is with Arteea.
70-80 and still with a chance ends with Niche Market.
#658
February 10th, 2009 12:16
Wow. What a bummer. Echo gets bumped up 6lb by my reckoning (receives 1lb instead of 7 from Comply or Die).
Cloudy Lane Topweight, BC and Silver Birch are the first horses under 11-0. Total rework needed!!!
#659
February 10th, 2009 12:16
Niche Market is number 80 on 9_09. If you want to back anything carrying around that weight, consider it carefully, as he may not get in.
D’Argent, King Harald,Lothian Falcon are a few of those mentioned previously who look like they may miss out.
My Will is weighted nicely, if either Notre Pere or Nozic line up come race day.
#660
February 10th, 2009 12:18
At first sight, Himalayan Trail could be value.
#661
February 10th, 2009 12:23
Cloudy Lane looks like being top weight aswell from that list to me. So everything will be bumped up 8lbs. Meaning Hear The Echo gets 11-05, ouch!!
Meanwhile Character Building would sit on a handy 10-06
#662
February 10th, 2009 12:23
my will really came in last night, leaky business ey! is Nozic most likely to be top weight on day then? if this were to happen do all go up 7lb?
#663
February 10th, 2009 12:30
Heres some food for thought.
Apparently Exotic Dancer may well stay in and give butlers cabin the perfect weight.
Butlers Cabin has also been raised to 10:05 on purpose.
The reason is AP McCoy’s lowest weight in the last 12 month is 10:04
I love a good conspiracy theory
#664
February 10th, 2009 12:31
Still happy with my selections bar one change
State of Play
Simon
Abbeybraney
Longer prices:
Fleet Street
Brooklyn Brownie
King Harald (replace with Battlecry)
#665
February 10th, 2009 12:33
10-06 is ideal!
Silver Birch given a chance if he gets there.
State of Play 10-08
Mon Mome 10-06
L’Ami 10-03!!!
cornish 10-02!!!
Him Trail gets the featherweight he needs.
#666
February 10th, 2009 12:38
Brian, nice theory! But why would Robert Ogden risk his horse getting injured in the National just so J P McManus can win the race? It makes no sense! I could understand if it was the same owner.
Top weight will be Cloudy Lane.
#667
February 10th, 2009 12:39
After Himalayan Trail’s last 2 runs, ive lost all interest in him I think.
Time to sit back and watch the prep races over the next 4 and a bit weeks now! Dont forget, your selection needs to run between now and race day, and not after the Cheltenham Festival.
#668
February 10th, 2009 12:39
Interesting – will Jonjo leave Exotic Dancer in to nable Butlers Cabin to run off 10st5?
#669
February 10th, 2009 12:39
Wow Character Building getting a huge pull off all the main contenders.
Not happy with Butler’s weight that is ridiculous! Phil Smith obviously out to get the horse, same goes for Hear the Echo, he obviously just tried to get all the horses at the top of the betting market.
Big lumpy bet going on Himalayan Trail, missed the 40/1 at Ladbrooks by minutes last night, checked oddschecker before I left home and when I got there they’d cut him to 33/1, Will be grabbing the 33/1 fast as that will not last.
#670
February 10th, 2009 12:40
If he does leave them in, then it gives all BC’s competitors less weight as well, so it doesnt really make much difference I would argue!
#671
February 10th, 2009 12:42
No way will Jonjo hang Exotic Dancer out to dry to help Butler’s that is one of the most valuable chasers around. Not a past it old knacker like WoA.
Also everyone assuming Cloudy Lane is gonna be top weight, I can see him being rerouted to Ayr after being hammered like that, he’ll have no chance with 11-10 given his tanking off a featherweight last year.
#672
February 10th, 2009 12:49
Of Horses tipped and mentioned on this blog these are some of the horses that have come out with great weights and who look set to get in:
CORNISH SETT
L’AMI
SIMON
CAN’T BUY TIME
DARKNESS
ENDLESS POWER
RAMBLING MINISTER
SOUTHERN VIC
GARDE CHAMPETRE
TRABOLGAN
KILBEGGAN BALDE
CONNA CASTLE
HIMALAYAN TRAIL
#673
February 10th, 2009 12:51
..oh and of course CHARACTER BUILDING
#674
February 10th, 2009 12:51
I agree Daniel Ed,
infact have alot of these horses been secretly taking acting lessons to play down their chances? 
-Him Trail disappointing recently but nigglingly he likes the spring!
and gets every chance with the weight.
-If butlers gets less then so do all my other little chums. I may even fancy COD for the double! his seasonal returns, could have all been an act, bloody good actor for a horse
#675
February 10th, 2009 12:52
Not all conspiracy theories are correct
But who could honestly say that JP McManus wont “donate” some of his winnings to a certain Mr R Ogden if indeed BC does win.
We all know JP McManus loves a good gamble and would it really look out of place if Exotic dancer does run and then pull up after the first circuit. (he’ll have the perfect reason as in he was too tired after cheltenham) and he is more than capable of jumping the fences at Aintree so its not that much of a risk of him getting injured.
#676
February 10th, 2009 12:58
Timeform top 10 ratings for GN adjusted to weights carried:
My Will 185
King Johns Castle 182
Darkness 182
Comply Or Die 181+
Exotic Dancer 181
Madison Du Berlais 181
Star de Mohaison 181
Cloudy Lane 181
Southern Vic 181
Air Force One 180
War Of Attrition 180
Roll Along 180
State of Play 180
#677
February 10th, 2009 13:01
It is a risk really isn’t it. He might be alright at the fences but anything can happen. He could land on another horse, he could miss time a jump, he could have to be put down. It seems like too much of a risk to me!
Would you risk one of your favourite and most profitable horses on the off chance that another horse wins a 40 runner race and you get some of the winnings?
Let’s face it, everything is going up 7 or 8lbs so Butler’s Cabin is more likely to be around the 10-12 mark for me.
#678
February 10th, 2009 13:09
oh very naughty collusion, would someone really cosider that in a race as potentially dangerous as this, with a money making horse.
er, I can’t read that Pablo. Is it some weights topspeed comparison?
can we formulate a table of well weighted horses now and their TS, actually would be helpful.
so tell me if nicely weighted staying horses like Garde and Silver B are probably going to the cross country at cheltenham, we rule them in,
as its a hacking good blow?!
and if they go for the gold cup we rule em out generally?
#679
February 10th, 2009 13:10
Rambling Minster fans:
Keith Reveley (Rambling Minster 10st 1lb): “That sounds good enough to me and we would have a fighting chance of getting in off that.
“That would be a smashing weight so we’ll see how things go between now and then and if he’s in good form, we could give it a go.
“He’s entered at Haydock at the weekend but that must be a bit doubtful but I’d like to give him another run or two before the National.”
#680
February 10th, 2009 13:10
At least one of the top six on weights day has run in the last eleven Nationals. I think it could be Snoopy or Nozic, weights up by 5-7lbs.
#681
February 10th, 2009 13:15
First and quick thoughts.
It now revolves round who top weight will be.
Poor old Hear the Echo on 10.11- wont put a penny more on it unless one of the top two stay in.
Butlers till has a chance if Cloudy Lane is top (would make him 10.13).
Himalayan Trail looking very good on his current 9.12 – would make him 10.06 (perfect!) if CL is top(glad I got the early price weeeks ago)
Need to study all this a lot more.
#682
February 10th, 2009 13:15
Yeh but most of those at the top are only in there because Denman was. Watch them drop like flies now!
#683
February 10th, 2009 13:15
To summarise the reactions from trainers (see Sporting Life):
1) Generally the Irish boys are not happy
2) Except Preists Leap if it comes up soft
3) Cane Brake might well run
4) Rambling Minster & Kilbeggan Blade both happy with weights
#684
February 10th, 2009 13:25
Revised weights of most interesting runners *if* Cloudy is top weight on the day:
CLOUDY LANE 9-11-10 Donald McCain Jnr
AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (IRE) 11-11-09 Noel Meade IRE
WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-09 Mouse Morris IRE
CHELSEAHARBOUR(IRE) 9-11-08 Tom Mullins IRE
SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-08 Willie Mullins IRE
CANE BRAKE (IRE) 10-11-07 Tom Taaffe IRE
KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-11-07 Nigel Twiston-Davies
COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-11-06 Pipe
BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-11-05 Dessie Hughes IRE
HEAR THE ECHO (IRE) 8-11-05 Mouse Morris IRE
PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-11-05 Tom O’Leary IRE
KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 10-11-04 Arthur Moore IRE
MY WILL (FR) 9-11-04 Paul Nicholls
STATE OF PLAY 9-11-02 Evan Williams
BIG FELLA THANKS 7-11-01 Nicholls
MON MOME (FR) 9-11-00 VenetiaWilliams
SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-11-00 Gordon Elliott IRE
BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-13 Jonjo O’Neill
PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-12 Philip Hobbs
ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 8-10-11 Howard Johnson
SIMON 10-10-11 John Spearing
BATTLECRY 8-10-10 Nigel Twiston-Davies
CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-10 Paul Nicholls
FLEET STREET 10-10-10 Nicky Henderson
CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-09 Jonjo O’Neill
DARKNESS 10-10-09 Charles Egerton
RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-09 Keith Reveley
SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-09 Ted Walsh IRE
TRABOLGAN (IRE) 11-10-09 Nicky Henderson
ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-08 Peter Bowen
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-08 J Enda Bolger IRE
HOT WELD 10-10-07 Ferdy Murphy
KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-10-07 Tom George
CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-10-06 John Quinn
CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 10-10-06 Jimmy Mangan IRE
HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-10-06 Jimmy Mangan IRE
ICE TEA (IRE) 9-10-04 Donald McCain Jnr
COMPANERO (IRE) 9-10-03 Johnson Howard Johnson
BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 8-10-02 Nigel Twiston-Davies
#685
February 10th, 2009 13:32
War of Attrition plot has been undone nicely. Mouse Morris must be seething.
#686
February 10th, 2009 13:35
Will Himalayan Trail make the cut – number 67 at the moment?
#687
February 10th, 2009 13:40
number 67 should be safe. Rule of thumb is top 70 are safe, and then anything up to 80 has a good chance.
#688
February 10th, 2009 13:41
Had a quick look at the weights, hard to interpret the impact of the Butlers Cabin revision.
Seems to have gone down well with the bookies, cutting him to clear favourite, but will mean carrying 12 lbs more than his current OR suggests he should. Think AP could be waiting another year…
The clear stand-out for me now is RAMBLING MINSTER
#689
February 10th, 2009 13:42
Stephen Says:
February 10th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
It is a risk really isn’t it. He might be alright at the fences but anything can happen. He could land on another horse, he could miss time a jump, he could have to be put down. It seems like too much of a risk to me!
Would you risk one of your favourite and most profitable horses on the off chance that another horse wins a 40 runner race and you get some of the winnings?
Calm down Stephen. Like many conspiracy theories It was a tongue in cheek comment.
#690
February 10th, 2009 13:46
Rambling Minster would have to run a belter in a very decent race for me to be interested in him.
#691
February 10th, 2009 13:50
Think the handicapper has been most easy on Garde Champetre,if they ever had any doubts about running it surely they must give it its chance off such a kind weight.He’s my “Seychelles for the summer” horse and if he wins at Cheltenham i reckon his price will drop further for the nat,40s is still available.One nagging worry is the choice of jock for the big race,Nina Carberry is usually on it.Is she up to the task or will they replace her!
#692
February 10th, 2009 13:51
My prediction for the rise in weights (conspiracy theories aside
) is that the weights will go up no more than 5lbs.
Im going to get to work now on who this will leave in and then get to work on my shortlist (again!!!)
#693
February 10th, 2009 14:00
I think they will go up at least 6lb. SO I am going to work on this figure for now and see who that leaves in. Can always change as necessary as matters progress….
#694
February 10th, 2009 14:14
so Tex you think X country horses can go on 3wks later and win this! obviously Silver Birch did,
my post weights thoughts involves several who have run in cross country, my only worry really is as I said much earlier I don’t rate Garde as better than Spot the Difference, its hard not to compare these specialists, Spot finished top 10 GN 2 or 3x, think Garde will definately be top10 too, unsure he will win, but every chance
#695
February 10th, 2009 14:16
The trends still stand and the best weighted trend horses are all in with a greta chance. Will come back on this later.
The two top trend runners who “done over” appear to be:
Hear The Echo
Black Aplacahi
#696
February 10th, 2009 14:28
L’Ami has gone X country route, changed to Bolger stable, rejuvenated, only 8 with 11-08 when 10th 2yrs ago, now thats an excuse for the finished in this race never win stat, given just 10-03 now but rather unfancied, its such a sheep herding thing.
#697
February 10th, 2009 14:32
kj Says:
February 10th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
L’Ami has gone X country route, changed to Bolger stable, rejuvenated, only 8 with 11-08 when 10th 2yrs ago, now thats an excuse for the finished in this race never win stat, given just 10-03 now but rather unfancied, its such a sheep herding thing.
He fell last year on 11_01. I fancied him a bit before the race he has those dreaded letters F & R next to his name! I wonder if his best chance/chances has gone.
#698
February 10th, 2009 14:41
i for one think the weights are tops.my list of 5 have all done well and i am more than ever confident the winner is in here.
1 butlers cabin
2 himalayan trail
3 garde champetre
4 state of play
5 cornish sett (got100′s on him)
still watching parsons and hot weld.
#699
February 10th, 2009 14:43
kj 3 out of 4 of Silver Birch’s races before he won were in X country chases and i’d say GC’s form in these is better,he won with nearly 12 stone on his back last time out and if he takes to the Aintree fences with about 10-5 max on his back then he’ll be in the frame!
#700
February 10th, 2009 14:44
I think its great this year because there is not simply a stand out horse or two. ALL of them have their question marks. Makes it very interesting and very difficult!!
#701
February 10th, 2009 14:44
cross country is a fav of mine and l’ami -FRs! recent runs were notable, he has better form than last year and two years ago he was too young really with alot of weight, just a different perspective on his chances, but everyone else may be right, a place possibility, like Garde and Silver B his cross country buddies
#702
February 10th, 2009 14:46
From what I can see if the ground is the only problem to southern vic being a good each way bet for the GN -as he needs soft -.
He seems to take after his sire in needing distance and soft ground. In 2006 won grade 1 and grade 2 over 3 miles in soft ground.
He is owned by Graham bookmakers.
In 2006 Ted Walshe said that he will some day be a national horse.
Was off injured for a year and has been campaigned with GN in mind.
Has had a run over the national fences and was going well until unseated rider.
Seems to meet al the trends and will have a good racing weight whatever the top weights do.
If Ruby rides him – which he will if the groung comes up soft – the price will shorten a lot.
T. Walshe knows how to train a winner here.
He is rated 143 the same as his Irish rating – normally they are rated higher in UK than Ireland.
He is entered in the hennessy on Sunday – a good run there and he will shorten.
His last run was good considering it was 2 miles.
Anybody any views on this
#703
February 10th, 2009 14:50
Blimey, you’re all quick off the mark. I spent my lunch break doing a quick analysis of the field. You beat me too it but my first thoughts were on Exotic Dancer – keep him in and run BC off of 10-05. I’ve come down on the ‘no’ side – even if it were a tactical conspiracy Exotic’s involvement would open the race up massively and a CoD repeat would be a tempting prospect. Madison must be aimed for the Gold Cup and I can’t see that it would be worth the risk to enter him here. So I fall down on Cloudy Lane as top weight which makes everything very interesting.
Giving a couple pounds depending on variations (if Cloudy is not top weight) it rules out everyone above Black Apalachi for me. I’ve ruled out the horses aged under 8 or over 11 (though I will put Silver Birch back in when I analyse further). So on weights and age alone I have halved the field (based on the top 70).
This is basic and tenuous and needs much more work but my five by instinct at the moment are…. drum roll, drum roll…
1) Butlers Cabin
2) State of Play
3) Mon Mome
4) Cornish Sett
5) Southern Vic
Reassuring since most of my hard earned cash is on BC already. Interestingly a lot of the French bred horses (arguable point but with FR next to them) look well treated. Anyone know the price on a French bred winner – wacky?
Anyway, apologies for my crude analysis here (very basic) but once I have my Racing Post tomorrow and racing cap on tomorrow night I should have some better arguments.
#704
February 10th, 2009 14:55
One of my other ante-post horses i’m on at nice odds is Battlecry,also given a nice weight by the handicapper.Still a outsider but entered in a few races before the big one,needs an eye-catching run to seriously considered!
#705
February 10th, 2009 15:16
Revised shortlist post-weights (subject to a bit more thorough analysis later).
1) Rambling Minster – the stand out horse for me.
2) Simon
3) Parsons Legacy
4) Garde Champetre
And finally, this years ‘King Johns Castle’ – Reveillez
#706
February 10th, 2009 15:21
short and sweet,
in my zone are the following.
butlers cabin,
cornish sett,
southern vic,
darkness,
rambling minster,
endless power,
parsons leg.
if cross country good prep,then garde champetre and lami are aimed there first,see article after lami won last time.enda bolger quote.
as is silver birch,who will need run anyway.
#707
February 10th, 2009 15:28
Based on weights going up 5lbs.
My not so shortlist at the moment is:
Comply or Die
Hear the echo
My will
State of play
Mon mome
Butlers cabin
Parsons legacy
Cornish sett
Rambling minster
Garde Champetre
Kilbeggan Blade
Character Building
Himalayan trail
#708
February 10th, 2009 16:06
Gammers, may I ask what your logic is behind slecting Simon after 2 previous unsuccessful attempts at the big race, in which he has fallen and unseated?
#709
February 10th, 2009 16:17
Certainly Jimmy Boy,
2008 – UR 5 out when tracking leaders carrying 11’7
2007 – F 5 out when in touch carrying 10’11
2009 – allocated 10’3, which admittedly will rise but probably not above his 2007 weight.
Some will point to the fact he has failed to complete twice and that he is too small for the fences. By falling at Valentines (2nd time round) in each of the last 2 years he has proved he can at least clear the fences. His jumping outside of the GN has been exemplary with no other ‘F’s’ to his name. I’m backing the theory that a lighter weight and another years experience will see him home, but will certainly have my fingers crossed at Valentines on the 2nd circuit!
#710
February 10th, 2009 16:39
I think I have spotted an Irish one that looks potentially very well treated compared with his OR
Cane Brake – his National weight is 10’1 (OR 155 – which had previously put me off)
Rated 20lb higher than Butler’s Cabin but will carry 4lb less (+24lb)
Rated 5lb higher than State of Play but will carry 7lb less (+12lb)
Not an exact science but it would appear that the handicapper has given him every chance
According to his trainer:
“It’s all a guessing game at the minute what will run near the top of the weights, but we’re very much looking forward to running Cane Brake in the National.
“He’ll have one run somewhere beforehand and he ran a really good race at Leopardstown last time. Hopefully he would improve a bit for that.”
Icing on the cake would be for Barry Geraghty to get the ride
Trainer knows how to get one placed – Slim Pickings placed in the last two years – can he go one better this year?
Interested to hear your thoughts
#711
February 10th, 2009 16:41
Can someone clarify what the big deal is about Butlers Cabin was looking at his last runs he hasn’t won or even been placed since apr 07(just check out the racing post website form cards), What makes him such a contender???
#712
February 10th, 2009 16:51
List amended from Feb 4th post; Hennessey, Nationals and Aintree form;
State Of Play, Trabolgan*, Silver Birch, Mon Mome, Parsons Legacy, Cornish Sett*, Hot Weld*, L’Ami, Endless Power*, Character Building*, Brooklyn Brownie*, Butlers Cabin, Flintoff*.
(lost Black Apalachi, HTE and Oulart)
Secondary criteria, 3x3mile wins inc 1x28f or further; Rambling Minster*, Kilbeggan Blade*, Himalayan Trail*, D’Argent*.
(lost Chelsea Harbour)
I’ve asterisked those in the 136-144 zone.
I think Trabolgan, Hot Weld and Character Building have come out of the weights really well but they still have to do the business….
Nothing to prove except their well being(think they meet most stats that people are looking at) between now and big day;
State Of Play, Mon Mome, Parsons Legacy, L’Ami, Cornish Sett.
#713
February 10th, 2009 17:17
Pablo, cane brake has been alloted a weight of 10-13, if the weights were to rise between 5-7lb (which i would have thought they will) then he will be too high in the weights to meet the stats of previous winners over the last decade.
guys your thoughts please on horses like state of play who have a current OR of 150 (which goes against the stats) but even allowing for a 5lb hike in the weights will have a racing weight of 10-13, which meets the stats….
#714
February 10th, 2009 17:28
Thanks – I thought it was too good to be true!
#715
February 10th, 2009 17:32
I think State of Play is one that would be interesting, but I am not convinced he will line up. Think he will go to the Gold Cup instead and then swerve the GN.
Does anybody know what has been said about the chances of Nozic lining up on race day?
#716
February 10th, 2009 17:38
Evan Williams (State Of Play 10st 8lb): “The plan has always been to come back for a big handicap in the spring either the Scottish National, bet365 Gold Cup or the Grand National.
“I will have to talk to the owner but this race is very tempting.”
Gold Cup not on the agenda for this one – much will depend on top weight I would think
Jonjo has said that Exotic is going stright to Gold Cup then National!?!
#717
February 10th, 2009 17:41
I stand corrected. One to consider in my book.
#718
February 10th, 2009 17:49
Me too – had my biggest bet so far on State of Play – hope that Jonjo does run Exotic Dancer off 11’10
#719
February 10th, 2009 17:49
Only slight niggle is that he doesnt appear to take to too many races well. He has a bit of history of going well at the start of the season and then dropping off. I would think to be confident of a good run from him, they might try and send him out very soon, within the next couple of weeks, and then put him away until Aintree.
He holds 2 entries at Cheltenham at the moment. If he lines up in either of those, I dont think I would back him.
#720
February 10th, 2009 17:49
What do Butler’s Cabin fans make of these quotes from O’Neill?:
Of his other possibles, he went on “Butler’s Cabin (10st 5lb) gets the trip and jumps very well. He was going well last year, but I suppose it was a long way out when he fell.
“He needs good ground and that’s why he hasn’t run lately. I’m happy enough with him and the plan is to go for the National. Hopefully he’ll run at Cheltenham somewhere and then head to Aintree as long as the ground is good
A Negative next to his name perhaps?
#721
February 10th, 2009 18:00
Well the ground has been officially good for the past 2 years, and was good 5 years ago also….Most horses are ground depending. Those comments wont put me off.
#722
February 10th, 2009 18:04
I was thinking more along the lines of maybe running at Cheltenham beforehand
#723
February 10th, 2009 18:20
Delighted with my short lists initial weights apart from Hear the Echo which is an absolute outrage..!
Even if they go up 5lbs most of them are still the right side of 11 stone
I think Garde Champetre has got away with murder off 10-0 – I wont be complaining though
1. Southern Vic 10-1
2. Hear the Echo 10-11
3. Butlers Cabin 10-5
4. Himalayan Trail 9-12
5. Garde Champetre 10-0
6. State of Play 10-8
7 Post weights dabble – Simon 10-3
#724
February 10th, 2009 18:23
As long as he doesnt win at Cheltenham, I dont mind too much, although from a stats point of view, better if he doesnt of course.
#725
February 10th, 2009 19:18
Nice work crisp 73 and very intersting I am following your info with much interest.
Looks like Rambling Minster*, Kilbeggan Blade*, Himalayan Trail* and Butlers Cabin have all got to be repected.
Will post my own list after I have time to review in some detail.
#726
February 10th, 2009 20:09
Just reading through the brilliant post’s here, and wanted to thank you all for your hard work to date in our quest to find the 2009 Grand Nationalwinner.
I will be posting my views over the coming weeks, but wondered if anybody had information on the prices of the last 10 winners following publication of the weights?
#727
February 10th, 2009 20:29
Good news for those at the upper end of the handicap. David Pipe’s not runling out Madison Du Berlais. Now reckons the RP Chase is unlikely and he’ll go straight to Cheltenham and then decide about the National from there. Given his current form, and the time between meetings, who knows? Having CoD in the field may help!
Still getting over the treatment of Hear the Echo. I’m becoming a Himalayan Trail fan but still holding out hopes for Echo and my biggest winner at the moment is BC.
#728
February 10th, 2009 21:04
Looking back at the notes I made in 07 about the Betfair market on the day of the weights.
Only 12 out of the top 20 actually ran,Silver Birch was not in the top 20.In fact not one of the 1st 4 home were in the top 20 in the betting.
dun doire 14 number6 16 far from trouble 15 hedgehunter 20 nil desperandum 20 liberithine 26
#729
February 10th, 2009 21:11
In return for all the hard work you have already put in, if anybody would like an in depth form analysis for any of the leading fancies, please let me know and I will post these.
#730
February 10th, 2009 21:18
Hi guys & girls,I,ve just come in from the Chippie and i have to say i won’t be having any FRENCH Frie’s at Liverpool this year!!!Im very interested in the big race at HADDOCK on saturday and at the moment i only have a shortlist of 4. ‘I’LL BE BACK’ WITH MY SELECTIONS after i’ve BATTERED the Bookies!!!!!!! Ian Beale
#731
February 10th, 2009 22:15
When you look at the form of Character Building I don’t quite understand how he doesn’t have more weight?
Second and beaten 1/2 length by Butler’s Cabin in the 4m Chase at Cheltenham – Butler’s Cabin then went on to win the Irish National.
Third to Denman in the 2007 Hennessy – Denman then went on to destroy the Gold Cup field.
Fourth in the 2007 Hennessy was Madison Du Berlais who has since gone on to claim this seasons Hennessy and beat Denman (not the proper Denman I admit).
Fifth in the 2007 Hennessy was Knowhere who has come out and won the Old Roan Chase this season beating National top weight Exotic Dancer!
Character Building is rated 5lbs higher the Butler’s Cabin on OR and yet is rated 7lbs lower than him in the National. Come on Phil mate, sort it out!!
Anyone else have a point to make on this? It just seems odd to me given his form indicated above.
#732
February 10th, 2009 22:25
Couldn’t disagree with any of that Stephen, if Character Building bolts up on Saturday Phil Smith is going to look very silly indeed, and I’m going to be very happy with my investment in him at 33 & 25/1.
#733
February 10th, 2009 22:27
WACKO, akas ian beale, good to see your sense of humour is back and you are not being PASTIE any more.concentrate on finding the winner with the rest of us before the prices FRITTER away.we need to put the weights info. into the MIX and get on the GRAVY train.if we all now concentrate it will be a piece of FISHCAKE.hope you have more look with horses than you do with women.anyway lets CURRY up and find the winner.butlers cabin,ritas cabin or log cabin lets agree to disagree,with respect.
#734
February 10th, 2009 22:46
Cheers Brody.
I too am happy with my investment on him. I am just concerned that his strange mark that he has been given could mean he is balloted out of the race.
Nightmare of all nightmares!
#735
February 10th, 2009 22:47
regarding Character Building Stephen,
you have pointed out his truly fine moments,
can only think his recent form not so stunning
and phil thinks he may have peaked or not as good as we thought he was!?! is he right
As for BC the point that someone hit on earlier,
that he has been put up to a weight Tony can do makes (non)sense to me! Anyway BC fans can’t have all the luck in the world
#736
February 10th, 2009 22:54
sorry confused didn’t realise you were on CB and worried about him even getting in, I think he will get in and has a great chance, surely.
#737
February 10th, 2009 22:58
I go along with Showlads safety guess earlier, think he said “70 which is Arteea”. If it comes down to a ballot I would put CB top
#738
February 10th, 2009 23:07
I hope he does get in kj
I take your point about what Phil might have been thinking and that may be the case. However, he can’t base it on guess work surely? He has to go with their best form in my eyes. If he is indeed thinking as you suggest then why has Butler’s Cabin been given a 12lbs rating change with Character? BC recent form has been awful compared to Character’s, why is he not thinking he has peaked? I do know what you were saying though and appreciate your input.
I just find it all very odd when you look at the form. Plus I am sweating that he makes the line up! Ha Ha.
#739
February 10th, 2009 23:22
My two concerns with Character Building are:
1) He hasn’t recorded a RPR above 143 (for instance Denman beat him 19 lengths in the Hennessy giving him the best part of 2 stone)
2) He hasn’t looked honest at the finish recently
I’m waiting for his next run before I make up my mind
#740
February 10th, 2009 23:28
To be fair though Denman should be beating him, Denman is rated 182 and Character is rated 140 (I realise they weren’t at the time).
The next run is the key. If he wins a big staying race such as the one he is in on Saturday then he could meet every single trend as he is on the cusp of some of them now. Very similar to the way Comply Or Die got to Aintree last year.
#741
February 10th, 2009 23:37
Agreed – should be a fascinating race
#742
February 11th, 2009 00:50
Agreed, berr!!! sorry only just reloaded page, been off for a chinese the chippie was shut!
where is Ian anyway? secretly scoffing french fries somewhere!!!
psyhic weirdness coming together too I think,(hope) topical wand of possible coincidences has certainly kicked in, this, as some of you know and possibly dismiss (fair enough) is my extra winner finding factors.
Topical wand points to-
nothing wrong with Character Building watching the bankers apologysing today.
Garde champetre is a forest ranger/policeman en france, and looking at Australia on fire situation…
Comply or Die, Darkness, offshore account! are all quite “economic climate” aren’t they.
Maybe its clutching at straws but it helped me find many winners
Party Politics- election time
Bindaree- bollywood mania year, tenuous I know, thought it sounded asian u know bindi.
Silver Birch – metal peaked in cost that time.
no.6- the year of date 06-06-06
other than silver I had never seen the rest run ever! now its different I watch.
Anyway I think its funny (and unnerving) this weirdness. Any other horses to add to the Tenuous Topical Topsters.. feel free.
I might have missed something
Although my final lightning bolt is possibly yet to strike! I’m going to get some value on Garde C before its gone! or will it his is rather FR you know.
Can’t wait for saturdays race and some solid form jumping out!
#743
February 11th, 2009 10:16
State of Play- I’m a fan. I just think that if the weight rises more than 5lbs he will have to carry 11st, still good at the weights for a Hennessey winner, but he isn’t very big and he would have it all to do lumping that weight. I am convinced this is what trainer/ connections are concerned about.
#744
February 11th, 2009 10:20
KJ- I reckon if we’re all honest we all look for the ‘signs’! How about this one; the last time the Welsh rugby team completed back to back grand slams a french bred won the GN!
#745
February 11th, 2009 11:32
Crisp I agree about State of Play and the weight but too late for me because I have backed him
They are making noises about running Exotic Dancer which would suit State of Play and other classy types (My Will etc)…
…but might prevent a few fancied plodders lower down the handicap like Character Building and Himalayan Trail from running
I thought that it would be easier without Denman but I don’t think it is
#746
February 11th, 2009 12:06
Garde Champetre moved from 46 into 36 yesterday on Betfair
#747
February 11th, 2009 12:12
Crisp, I also agree about State Of Play. Regardless of the weights going up, he still has an official rating of 150, which would rule him on OR trends.
Whilst I note that Jonjo hasn’t ruled out Exotic Dancer, I cannot see him risking the horse this year if he runs well in the Gold Cup. On form shown so far this season he looks place material in that event.
#748
February 11th, 2009 12:36
With regards to Character Building at the moment it doesnt meet the trends but it could do if it wins on saturday at haydock.
What I would like to know is this;
Has there been a horse that when the weights were published didnt fit the trends but in between publishing of weights and national day has won a race so it then fits the trends?
#749
February 11th, 2009 12:44
A quick report. More at a later date.
My top three against the field (in no order)based on trends (pre Chritmas winner trends especiely) and Price Profile.
Note: Maximum weight is based on Cloudly Lane being top weight on 11.10 up 8lbs from current mark)
1. Southren Vic 10.01(min) 10.09(max)
1. Butlers Cabin 10.05 10.13
1. Himalayan Trail 9.12 10.06
Price Profile (big four High Street bookies). No 40/1 or over by any bookie on Odds checker.com
1. Southern Vic 33/1
1. Butlers Cabin 14/1 – 16/1
1. Himalayan Trail 16/1 – 20/1
Note: All three need a 1/2/3rd in a Chase over 25f or more this season so this list may change
Others later.
Wacky and Systemsman agree!! (Hear The Echo will be in the top 5/6 if he still gets in under 11.00 which i think is very doubtful – I have never been a fan as you know, nor am I keen on 8 year olds over 4miles +)
Best Lay: (not my thing but this one must make you money)
Big Fella Thanks 16/1 – 20/1 (taken loads of money in last 24 hours)
Fails on almost all trends!!
#750
February 11th, 2009 13:01
I hate to say it systemsman, but with the exception of Southern Vic, I agree. It looks to me that the only tool Mr. Smith has at his disposal is oddschecker.com!! New trend, if a horse is favourite before the weights are announced, forget it, you’ll get too much weight. How can you give a horse who hasn’t run in a chase for about a year such a penalty? I’m already well ahead if BC wins so, I think I’ll get stuck in to Himalayan Trail. There’s a couple of 7yos at near the top of the betting to lay, Big Fella and Cant buy time.
#751
February 11th, 2009 13:10
Systemsman – I backed HTE on betfair at 19′s but now with the weight it is likely going to run off I am not happy with my bet. Do you think it is a good time to Lay HTE and cut my losses?
#752
February 11th, 2009 13:16
Notelppa fair points. The more I look at Southern Vic the more holes I can find (but this applies to all my selectons when I look at them too much!). The key must be a good place at 25f or more or else forget it. I do like a horse who has won over 27f or more and always worry about those that havnt.
I will be revising my short list as we go along – it may well change but is most likely to come from my longer list of about 8 to 10 I am down to.
I will post a longer list of six to eight later.
Both Hear The Echo and Black Apalachi (the one for the mud) got “done over” by the Handicapper and now stand little chance unless the weights stay the same (unlikely).
#753
February 11th, 2009 13:22
Dan. I also backed HTE a day a or so ago(a half bet of my normal amount)based on the many fans on this site and now also regret it (moral: trust your own judgement)- but thats life.
HTE may still have a small chance if he can still get in under 11.00 but i doubt it.
Do you think it is a good time to Lay HTE and cut my losses?
You must make your own mind up on this based on a review of all known facts. If it was me I would – what do others think out there?
#754
February 11th, 2009 13:31
I think the problem with Southern Vic is that it is likes heavy or soft ground and it has never run on good or even good to soft.
#755
February 11th, 2009 13:39
I backed Hear the Echo as well, but have managed to lay it off completely, so nothing lost.
I am now sitting sweet on Parsons Legacy (one that is being forgotten about a bit I think) Butlers Cabin and Garde Champetre.
However, my betfair page is showing only a worst case scenario loss for me of £1.27!! So, I shall be having a fair bit more on whoever takes my fancy in the coming weeks.
#756
February 11th, 2009 13:52
Are we in agreement then that Hear the Echo faces a stiff task and is likely to carry in excess of 11st? Even if Exotic Dancer stayed in Mouse Morris was not happy wih the weight so that is off putting as well.
#757
February 11th, 2009 13:52
ha, ha Crisp.. I don’t know my rugby but seriously the welsh haven’t had back t back grand slams in 100yrs, that is suprising!
Its not on my ether radar sorry, I got to include this, I know others do too, as I have everytime I have won, don’t want to brag, so I suppose its good I’ve forgotten how many back to back winners I am on in this special race. Think my parents being so ill for last year has wiped my mind somewhat, anyway clear as mud after initial clarity yesterday again.
#758
February 11th, 2009 14:12
maybe the mud will happen, in which case I think we all have a contender!
I haven’t played Laying, don’t really like the idea, would feel terrible if a horse I layed fell and broke its legs. Although I am tempted, recently joined Betfair, gone no further, cause I always know journey permitting, who will probably fall or fade away and who will be thereabouts. I’d say Laying 7yr old horses is a great bet, Dan.
#759
February 11th, 2009 14:19
whats peoples thinking on garde chapetre 10 stone seems great-used to lugging 11.10 round cheltenham
and can jump big fences-nina normally rides could be the first lady to ride the winner me thinks
#760
February 11th, 2009 14:32
If you had laid 6,7,13 & 14 yo’s in the last ten years for a place and for a win, and laid, say, £10 on each, you would be showing a profit of £820.
#761
February 11th, 2009 14:34
GC was my knee jerk bet yesterday, although I think he will go to the cross country 3wks before, as Silver Birch proved it can be done. Nina riding is a negative for me in this crazy war like race, although shes a good jockey I’m worried its not the race for women, hope she proves me wrong, I got money on her now!
I am ruling in cross country horses and waiting to see how hard a race horses get in the GC before I decide on them.
Just looking again, its so hard to rule things out. Trying to guess who will be top weight and adjusting is well guesswork. I feel something could be left in up there above Cloudy, Think like HTE, BA been done in but thought he’d get it! but he is getting another runway! ha,ha.
#762
February 11th, 2009 14:36
Exactly Daniel I should be in there! this finding the winner thing is a mugs game!
#763
February 11th, 2009 14:39
Okay folks, a quick look at who has been treated kindly or harshly by Mr Smith. Both the BHA and Racing Ireland have published their ORs for this week, so we can compare these with the nominal ORs assigned for the National.
Horses ‘well in’ on National OR:
Exotic Dancer 8lbs
War of Attrition 6lbs
Madison Du Berlais 5lbs
Snoopy Loopy 4lbs
Garde Champetre & Offshore Account 2 lbs
Nozic, Air Force One, Cloudy Lane, Snowy Morning, Oodachee, Dun Doire all 1 lbs
So the horses at the top of the list benefit from compression of the handicap, but still have to carry over 11’0. Oodachee and Dun Doire will not get in. So the only horses given an advantage by the handicapper are strong trends pick GARDE CHAMPETRE and Offshore Account.
Horses treated harshly on National OR:
Dix Villez 13 lbs more than current OR
Butlers Cabin 12 lbs
Ballytrim 11 lbs
Sea Diva 10 lbs
Chelsea Harbour & Hear The Echo 8 lbs
Black Apalachi, Priests Leap, Hoopy all 7 lbs
Mattock Ranger 6 lbs
Brooklyn Brownie, Tumbling Dice, Oulart all 5 lbs
6 Horses with 4 lbs penalty
3 Horses with 3 lbs penalty
5 Horses with 2 lbs penalty
1 Horse with 1 lbs penalty.
What to make of all this?
Firstly, you can see why the Irish trainers were up in arms about the weights they were allocated. Phil Smith must feel that the Irish Racing Authorities rank equivalent horses lower than their UK counterparts.
Secondly, for all those saying HTE and BA ‘done over’ by the handicapper – neither has been treated as harshly as Butlers Cabin who has 12 lbs to make up on recent form to even be on terms with other horses in the race. This, combined with recent poor form, has put me off him massively – and suggests his current price is far too short. (See, an arguement against BC not centered on the dreaded ‘FR’!)
Food for thought…
#764
February 11th, 2009 14:44
briliant im glad ive backed the winner
One bad thing about GARDE CHAMPETRE is it comes from the back and could get brought down.
Normally horses that race up with the pace win this race-he doesnt
#765
February 11th, 2009 14:52
always has been an arguement against BC without the FR thing. Think Phil was “dreaming” giving BC the weight so Tony can ride him to glory! its the only reason for such a rise surely, if he just wanted to get him in the race he coulda had 5lb less.
Thanks for the list Gammers!
Interseting Offshore Account is now making an appearance with his topical economic name, must look into this one.
Tell me how does Cornish do in this analysis? noticed more people a bit interested in this one here too.
#766
February 11th, 2009 14:58
Dan Edwards- right about Parsons. So far so good. I read that Hobbs is looking forward to him taking part.
Trabolgan has been ruled out for the rest of the season according to Hemmings’ racing manager, another one of the list.
RE; Haydock Gold cup on Saturday; I think Rambling Minster(though there is some doubt about him running) needs to place, Character Building needs to win. Another placing over 28f would be great for Cornish Sett.
It will be very interesting to see how Aintree winner Endless Power gets on in the Racing Post chase,Feb 21st, first time over 3 miles. Great quote from his trainer about how he ‘doesn’t know how the horse get the last two miles but they’ve got to have a go’!
National seven weeks on Saturday so all fancies now need to run between now and March 21st- keeping in with trend since 1982 /
2-7 weeks/16-49 days since last prep run – Aldaniti ran 52 days before his win in 1981.(add in Aldaniti’s figures and the trend goes way back)
#767
February 11th, 2009 15:03
KJ – Cornish is racing from his correct mark.
#768
February 11th, 2009 15:05
Indeed Rocky, I am not happy with having 2 definate back of the pack runners in Garde and Cornish either, if you watch KJCs path last year, he was so lucky to come through this minefield and you think maybe with a clear path from the back (yeah right) he coulda challenged to win. Definate negative.
Hey Crisp, shame about Trabolgan, makes me wonder if I should rule out completey other horses that have been injured. Got excited about Silver Birchs’ return too.
#769
February 11th, 2009 15:11
Is it right that if either Snoopy Loopy or Exotic Dancer come first or second in any race at cheltenham then they are on for a £1m bonus if they win the national as well.
Surely that could be a very tempting offer for the connections of these horses if they manage the cheltenham part of it.
#770
February 11th, 2009 15:12
Problem with backing Silver Birch, or Hot Weld for that matter, is that to meet the trends they need to get 3 runs in between now and Aintree, and none after Cheltenham. I cant see anyhorse running 4 times in the space of 2 months and being capable of winning the GN!
#771
February 11th, 2009 15:14
Crisp – I think Brooklyn Brownie is the one to take from Endless Power’s Grand Sefton race should he get in
Mind you would be interesting should Endless Power get the 3m – likes Aintree
#772
February 11th, 2009 15:16
Brian Says:
February 11th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
Is it right that if either Snoopy Loopy or Exotic Dancer come first or second in any race at cheltenham then they are on for a £1m bonus if they win the national as well.
Surely that could be a very tempting offer for the connections of these horses if they manage the cheltenham part of it.
Managing the Cheltenham part of it will be hard enough, let alone winning the GN!! Betfair are no mugs. They set up the original one thinking no horse would do it, and then Kauto did it once, and almost did it a second time.
Seagram is the only horse in the last 50 years or so to win at the festival and then win the GN. Only 2 of the last 10 had even run at the festival (cant remember where Silver Birch and COmply or Die came in their races)
Betfair know their money is safe by changing the rules this year!
#773
February 11th, 2009 15:21
Sure Daniel, but I imagine this year that with all the meetings abandoned due to the weather, alot more horses will have had less than the required 3 runs, is this correct?
If so, do you take from this that there are less horses that can win?
or as I am tempted 2 could be enough!
#774
February 11th, 2009 15:26
Gammers, interesting stuff with OR’s concerning Butlers.
I think the Irish have paid this year for several daylight robberies; Monty’s Pass won so easily he came back a year later with 17lbs more and still finished 4th; Hedgehunter didn’t need to race until he got to the elbow; No6 took candy from babies.
What will be interesting now is a performance which puts a horse well in on the day at these weights. I think Comply Or Die was rated something like a stone ‘well in’ last year on the day itself due to his Eider win.
#775
February 11th, 2009 15:37
Pablo- agreed about Brooklyn Brownie; won at 3miles, 2nd and 4th in a grade 1, second in a race over the GN fences, dam sire is Lafontaine(Papillon’s daddy), never fallen in 37 races, has already had 3 prep runs, won one of his last ten chases … as I said in earlier post just £737 short of the magic 17k chase victory. Maybe we could have a whip-round!!
#776
February 11th, 2009 15:38
Agreed Crisp. A win on Saturday for either Rambling Minster or Character Building could start to make matters interesting. I’ll be availing myself of some 40s on Rambling before the wknd.
#777
February 11th, 2009 15:46
kj Says:
February 11th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
Sure Daniel, but I imagine this year that with all the meetings abandoned due to the weather, alot more horses will have had less than the required 3 runs, is this correct?
If so, do you take from this that there are less horses that can win?
or as I am tempted 2 could be enough!
Fair point KJ. Thats why I said to meet the trends and not that it means they cant win. Whilst I dont think it impossible either of them could still win, I would like to see them run at least twice before the big day before I would think about backing them; once wouldnt be enough for me, as I find it hard to imagine a horse coming back from a 2 year or so break and actually running a true race (as opposed to a ‘he’ll come on for that’ sort of race)
#778
February 11th, 2009 15:53
Daniel Edwards Says:
February 11th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
Managing the Cheltenham part of it will be hard enough, let alone winning the GN!! Betfair are no mugs. They set up the original one thinking no horse would do it, and then Kauto did it once, and almost did it a second time.
Seagram is the only horse in the last 50 years or so to win at the festival and then win the GN. Only 2 of the last 10 had even run at the festival (cant remember where Silver Birch and COmply or Die came in their races)
Betfair know their money is safe by changing the rules this year!
Ahh so it is right then. (Silver Birch came second at cheltenham and CoD didn’t run at cheltenham)
I know it would be extremely difficult to do and not suggesting any horse would be capable of doing it but you got to admit if either one of these horses comes in the top 2 at cheltenham its got to be an interesting prospect for the owners to consider going for it.
Also someone has mentioned earlier that Garde Champetre and cornish Sett are back runners and its difficult for horses to navigate the carnage of the National from the back. I cant get KJC run out of my mind when he ran near the back for most of the way so dont think I could put this down as a negative on any horse.
#779
February 11th, 2009 15:57
I am getting on well with my breakdown of the race but I already have pages and pages of analysis so I am going to post my process here in stages. If you spot any mistakes along the way then please let me know. You may or may not know that I already have a big stake in Butlers Cabin and a moderate investment in Garde Champetre. I am now taking a fresh look, however, with more information to hand. I’m stat-attacking and eliminating.
My first contenders to rule out are based on age. No horse under the age of 8 has won the race since the second world war (yeh, I know 99% of you know that – my analysis will get more involved later I promise). This rules out ten horses (with some supporting comments)…
AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 7-11-02 BCharlie Mann
Charlie Mann stated in Racing Post that he feels this is a year too soon for Air Force One. A potential non-runner therefore and too high in the weights to be considered.
GWANAKO (FR) 6-10-12 Paul Nicholls
6 year old (1915 since the last 6 year old winner). No wins over 3 miles.
BIG FELLA THANKS 7-10-07 Nicholls
Only run 8 races over jumps. Unseated rider at Kempton in December. All wins on soft or heavy ground. LAY, LAY, LAY – thanks big fella!
OPERA MUNDI (FR) 7-10-06 Paul Nicholls
Another that likes it soft, ran third to Cloudy Lane at Haydock on same terms.
CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-01 Jonjo O’Neill
A few concerns about ruling him out straight away. Can’t Buy Time is the first entry into my ‘Z’ list (will make sense later). I’ll see how I rule him later.
OEDIPE (FR) 7-10-00 Nicky Henderson
Also in the ‘Z’ list – I expect to lose him later.
PIRAYA (FR) 6-9-12 David Pipe
6 year old (see above). Not won over 3m, fell in June and December last year. A fools choice.
POMME TIEPY (FR) 6-9-09 Willie Mullins IRE
6 year old. Unlikely to get in.
HOOPY (IRE) 7-9-06 Gordon Elliott IRE
Won’t get in.
MILANDEUX MILLE (FR) 7-9-00 David Pipe
Won’t get in.
13 year olds fair even worse. They haven’t won since 1923. We lose another three.
EUROTREK 13-10-9
Not won since November 06. Pulled up in 2007. Likely to run off over 11st this time again which rules him out for me.
PUNTAL 13-9-2
Won’t get in.
MONTMISERE 13-8-7
Won’t get in.
Although not totally discounted I am not fond of backing 12 year olds either. Only four entered this year so let’s see if we can eliminate them.
MONKERHOSTIN 12-10-12
Hobbs not sure he’ll run – surely not a contender off 10-12.
D’ARGENT 12-9-8
Best chance last year. A grey. Unlikely to start.
ZABENZ 12-9-11
Pulled up in 2007, never contended.
SILVER BIRCH 12-10-6
As 2007 winner it would be a travesty to rule Silver Birch out this early so he stays in the mix.
So on age alone I have eliminated 14 horses (over 10%) in a matter of minutes. I have also begun my Z list (those to be considered with extreme caution) with Can’t Buy Time and Oedipe. Everyone else is currently in List A – I’ll narrow these down in my next post. Bear with me – I’ll soon get the remaining 106 down to a few.
#780
February 11th, 2009 15:59
WOOOAHH!! dont go ruling out 12 year olds. They have a far far better strike rate (in terms of percentage of the number who line up actually winning) than 8 year olds. I can give you the stats if you like. If you rule them out, you should rule out 8 year olds as well.
#781
February 11th, 2009 16:12
There are just so few of them this time round and apart from Silver Birch I can find fault with them all. I missed out YOU’RE SPECIAL who won’t get in. I listen to opinion though so I’ll backtrack and put ZABENZ in my ‘Z List’ (ironic). Any arguments on Monkerhostin, D’Argent and YOU’RE SPECIAL?
So far eliminated based on age and supporting factors – AIRFORCEONE, GWANAKO, BIG FELLA THANKS, OPERA MUNDI, PIRAYA, POMME TIEPY, HOOPY, MILANDEUX MILLE, EUROTREK, PUNTAL, MONTMISERE, MONKERHOSTIN, D’ARGENT and YOU’RE SPECIAL.
#782
February 11th, 2009 16:49
so maybe Snoopy and Exotic will stay in for chance of the big money bonus, however unlikely it is.
The great Hedgehunter came close,
2nd in the GC with 11-10
then 22days later 2nd in the GN with 11-12
what a horse.
Got to say Brian I think it may have been you, ages ago (forgive me if I’m wrong) someone said that D’Argent was unseated by a horse bumping into him, not true! just watch.
D’Argent was tiring and fading when he jumped left into the advancing 12yr old Hedgehunter.
Carrying 11-12 again! he would have definately got a place, I’m still gutted for him.
Sorry to rant, but I think a horse being able to win at both distances is rare, and if it is possible like Hedgehunter the handicapper will see to it he doesn’t.
I wouldn’t rule out 12yr olds outright either,
but agree Silver B is the only one to keep in mind there.
#783
February 11th, 2009 17:17
Good stuff Rascal enjoying reading some detailed well thought out opinion on the race, keep it coming.
Just one bit of feedback for completeness sake:
ZABENZ 12-9-11
Pulled up in 2007, never contended.
The rider broke an iron or something quite early that’s why he was PU, can’t say I blame him wouldn’t fancy jumping Beechers with broken tackle! Horse really isn’t good enough anyway so safe to rule him out or Z list him anyway.
#784
February 11th, 2009 17:38
Review continued -
In the last 20 runnings of the National the age profile of winners has been as follows:
8 Years Old – 2
9 Years Old – 6
10 Years Old – 5
11 Years Old – 4
12 Years Old – 3
Over half the winners have been aged either 9 or 10 – only 3 horses in the last 10 years have broken this trend. Don’t worry, I’m not going to rule out everyone that’s not nine or ten. But to help my picture of the winner materialise I am splitting the leading contenders into Lists A & Lists B.
This was stage 2 of my breakdown. Stage 3 eliminates horses that won’t make the top 40 cut. Only 40 horses can run, 120 entries – that’s one place for every three horses. Clearly those at the bottom of the waiting list are not going to get in. To err on the side of caution I am not going to chop a third of horses off my list. Just the last 30. This eliminates a further 25 horses.
KING HARALD (IRE) 11-9-07
NADOVER (FR) 8-9-07
NINE DE SIVOLA (FR) 8-9-06
TOM SAYERS (IRE) 11-9-06
OUT THE BLACK (IRE) 11-9-02
ALEXANDERTHEGREAT (IRE) 11-9-00
BALLYTRIM (IRE) 8-8-11
LOTHIAN FALCON 10-9-07
OULART 10-9-07
PAK JACK (FR) 9-9-07
SEYMOURWELD 9-9-07
GALLANT APPROACH (IRE) 10-9-06
OODACHEE 10-9-04
KINGS ADVOCATE (IRE) 9-9-03
DUN DOIRE (IRE) 10-9-02
LE TOSCAN (FR) 9-9-02
SEA DIVA (IRE) 9-9-02
WITHOUT A DOUBT 10-9-02
EMMA JANE (IRE) 9-9-00
ROYAL ROSA (FR) 10-8-11
SANDHURST(IRE) 9-8-11
LORD KILLESHANRA (IRE) 10-8-10
LYSANDER (GER) 10-8-10
MALKO DE BEAUMONT (FR) 9-8-10
PASS ME BY 10-8-08
I now have 48 List A horses, 30 List B, 3 List Z and 39 eliminations. So that’s about a third out of contention. Tomorrow I’ll get more interesting and you’ll see some of those high in the betting fall of my list including Hear The Echo and King John’s Castle. Hope this is helpful and logical.
#785
February 11th, 2009 17:54
Loving the work Rascal.
Just a quick question…
How have you decided who goes in List A and List B. Or is that something we find out tomorrow?
#786
February 11th, 2009 18:09
just a question about the TS requirement of 111+ and preferably 128+
looking through recent winners and placings seems to be TS of 144+
can anyone elaborate on this stat is a new stat emerging?
#787
February 11th, 2009 18:12
oh I’ve found a 136,137 and 138 but not for winner
#788
February 11th, 2009 18:21
THE MONEY is pouring in for BIG FELLA THANKS
I am getting together as much money as I can to load my Betfair account to LAY that one!! 5 chase runs, only 1 win, 7 years old, around 11_01 to carry. Yes please!
#789
February 11th, 2009 18:27
Making an anti-post bet tonight.
Do they fit the trends???
Himalayan trail
Garde champetre
Character building
Butlers cabin
Also, Nine de sivola
All on nice low weights with good stamina.
#790
February 11th, 2009 18:36
TS starts to fall back in
2004
Amberleigh House TS 142,
Clan Royal TS 136
2003
Montys Pass 145
Supreme Glory 128!!!
Amberleigh House 128!!! gosh he got up some speed the next year.
2002
Binders 129!!!
Whats up boys 143
2001
Red marauder 140 oh I didn’t get this winner! so 7yr run to maintain.
Smarty 129
2000
Papillion 134 got this one!
Mely Moss 121!!! lowest I can find still way off 111 and not the winner. Do we need a classier stat upgrade? I think so
#791
February 11th, 2009 18:47
Like Rascal says by applying his lists we eliminate the last 30 plus get rid of any 6,7 and 13 year olds.
I am actually inclined to eliminate the last 40 on the list and if anything creeps in we can review it at a later date.
I am taking out anything carrying 10st 11 or above at this moment as the weights are likely to rise by at least 5lb (if they dont go up then we can review again)
Any horse that has not won a chase over 3m+ are eliminated.
Any horse that has not ran in at least 8 chases are eliminated (trend is 10 but to play safe we will say 8 as time for more runs before the national).
Any horse that has not won a class 1 or class 2 chase are eliminated
I am taking out anything that has not run this season.
By applying the above we are left with a list of 25 which are;
MIKO DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 9-10-10 Robert & Sally Alner
MY WILL (FR) 9-10-10 Paul Nicholls
STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08 Evan Williams
MON MOME (FR) 9-10-06 VenetiaWilliams
BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05 Jonjo O’Neill
PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-04 Philip Hobbs
REVEILLEZ 10-10-04 Jonjo O’Neill
FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-03 Nigel Twiston-Davies
L’AMI (FR) 10-10-03 Enda Bolger IRE
SIMON 10-10-03 John Spearing
CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-02 Paul Nicholls
FLEET STREET 10-10-02 Nicky Henderson
DARKNESS 10-10-01 Charles Egerton
RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01 Keith Reveley
SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01 Ted Walsh IRE
ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00 Peter Bowen
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00 J Enda Bolger IRE
KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13 Tom George
BROOKLYN BROWNIE (IRE) 10-9-12 Malcolm Jefferson
CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-9-12 John Quinn
HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12 Jimmy Mangan IRE
IDLE TALK (IRE) 10-9-11 Donald McCain Jnr
KELAMI (FR) 11-9-11 Lisa Williamson
MATTOCK RANGER (IRE) 9-9-09 Noel Meade IRE
NICHE MARKET (IRE) 8-9-09 Bob Buckler
Now lets try and get the 25 down.
I know this may not have helped anyone but I thought lets go back to basics to find the winner as there has been so many posts i’m starting to get confused!
Do we all agree the winner of the national is in the list of 25 above?
I know there are some trends I have not used like won a chase worth £17k but there is still time for that to happen (Character Building fans)
#792
February 11th, 2009 18:47
Big fella Thanks now 14/1 to 16/1 on Oddschecker.
Why? Because the Racing Post advised at 25/1! – plonkers!!
Now my top advise this season is to Lay , Lay and Lay again!
Just look at this:
Aged 7 – wrong
Raced 5 Chases – wrong
Won 1 chase – wrong
TS 125 (a bit low but possible)
Novice this season!!! – wrong
Won over max 24f once – wrong
Best OR 135 prior to win (last run when TS was only 110) and now OR 149 (up 14!) – wrong?
Its ALL wrong is it not? Get on Betfair (I dont have an account and its not my sort of betting)and Lay and pay for your GN bets!
#793
February 11th, 2009 19:05
Yeah its crazy systems, good job Dan, agree we have to go back to basics occasionally for clarity, at around 800 posts this year maybe we need to take out top tips and create a highlights page!!! like your thoughts.
Can I interest you in applying a higher TS to wittle it down
#794
February 11th, 2009 19:09
kj Says:
February 11th, 2009 at 6:09 pm
“just a question about the TS requirement of 111+ and preferably 128+
looking through recent winners and placings seems to be TS of 144+
can anyone elaborate on this stat is a new stat emerging?”
KJ, I think that was my work. You are confusing TS with RPR.
To win GN:
Minimum TS required is 111 (but 128 or more is best)
Minimum RPR required is 144 (this is a VERY important factor I brought up last year)
As far as I am aware nothing has changed (are you sure you have checked the form correctly for past GN winners?).
You need both class and speed to win!
#795
February 11th, 2009 19:15
Dan the winner of the GN 2009 IS in your list of 25 or the trends mean nothing this year!
#796
February 11th, 2009 19:21
How important is a higher than normal official rating to you guys? you see in previous years the higher the rating normally meant the more weight given so i think thats why we see OR’s between 135 and 144(because the higher rated horses with more weight could not carry it round) but this year a few horses meet all trends, have a great weight(below 11st) even allowing for a 5-7lb hike in the comming weeks but have an official rating of more than 144…..thoughts please.
#797
February 11th, 2009 19:26
MY POST ON 18TH DECEMBER
“Systemsman Says:
December 18th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
Grand National Ante-Post 2009
Can we find the 2009 winner – YES we can! Part 2.
9. TS rating minimum of 111 (12/12, TS 128 or more 7/11)”
Unless I cocked up – the TS minimum of 111 over the last 12 years IS correct.
Check it out!
#798
February 11th, 2009 19:48
I am not confused I don’t think, just coincidence I suggested 144.
Bindaree I think has the lowest winning TS in last 9 years at 129.
after this lowest winner TS Amberleigh House 142.
Anyway, I FOUND WACKY
he is stuck outside of this place,
I just looked at the weights competition results and one I’ve only gone and bloody won!
Secondly, the sad and lonely figure of Ian Beale got there first crying HELP ME! now how funny is that! chums
#799
February 11th, 2009 20:14
kj Says:
February 11th, 2009 at 4:49 pm
so maybe Snoopy and Exotic will stay in for chance of the big money bonus, however unlikely it is.
The great Hedgehunter came close,
2nd in the GC with 11-10
then 22days later 2nd in the GN with 11-12
what a horse.
Got to say Brian I think it may have been you, ages ago (forgive me if I’m wrong) someone said that D’Argent was unseated by a horse bumping into him, not true! just watch.
Sorry KJ Like shaggy once said ‘it wasn’t me’ but what that has to do with what i said i ain’t a clue (will try taken some of your medication to see if that helps tho
)
The reason i brought up the £1million bonus is that it will have major effect on the weights if either of them stop in as most people seem to be going by cloudy Lane being top weight.
I personnally feel that the most the weights will rise is 5lbs but i wouldnt be surprised if Exotic dancer stays in (Or maybe im just clucthing at straws to justify my bet on HTE ha ha)
#800
February 11th, 2009 20:31
Yep, I was totally there, just an excuse to bang on (relevantly) about how a horse as good as hedgey will always find one upstart will beat him with that kinda weight.
Agree, with the bonus as temptation one of them could well line up, muddying the waters for the others actual weights and chances. I said yesterday I think could go up by 5lb aswell, Nozic stayin in after that perhaps, but as someone else pointed out recently, some really low numbers of the top 20 have lined up before!
#801
February 11th, 2009 20:32
Just realised that you meant Shaggy the rapper! I was sat here thinking “I don’t remember him saying that in Scooby Doo”
#802
February 11th, 2009 20:33
SYSTEMSMAN
Truly grateful for your or anyone elses immense wisdom on these horses.
Very impressed with this thread and everyones knowledge about the trends. Do these horses meet them? They have stamina and low weight.
Top 4:
Himalayan Trail? – Looks good?
Garde Champetre? – Cross country? Is this a negative?
Character Building? – Has it heart to win?
Butlers Cabin? – Aimed to run at festival? Is this a negative?
Long shot:
Nine de Sivola? – Too young and inexperienced?
#803
February 11th, 2009 21:07
Is that not the top 20 in the betting tho.
At least one horse in the top 6 of the weights has entered over recent years as already stated earlier on here.
#804
February 11th, 2009 21:14
Hey I found it! only took me 10mins
takes me ages to write n rewrite tho! and my bloody cursor has a mind of its own, thats why it comes out so mumbo jumbo.
Its just a total niggle of correctness and affection for the old warrior, Hedgehunter,I apologise in advance but it stuck, sorry. please look at replay D’Argent was not hampered he blundered. The rest of your statement I totally agreed with but I can’t have anyone suggest hedgey even not by name, hampered him it was the other way round. By the way I was on both D’Argent and Hedgey and they totally cancelled each other out basically, ha, ha.. still had the winner.
Don’t take me finding this personally or I’ll have to medicate you! I’m a bit of a lateral thinker sorry. Can’t believe I remembered it was you, never really like this cut and paste “you said!.. our survey says” thing, but its for Hedgey and he can’t speak
Brian Says:
January 29th, 2009 at 11:35 am
Speaking of D’argent i see he is entered into it again. Its hard to see what the Owner / Trainer think is possible to change after his run last year. Yes he was up near the front but then he had already started to fade badly before being hampered and unseated.
#805
February 11th, 2009 21:24
Hey i stand corrected. your memory’s better than mine when it comes to stuff i’ve said
Maybe i should get on your medication after all lol.
Shaggy would be so ashamed of me (even the scooby snack one)
I’ll hang my head in shame and apologise humbley (is that a word and if so why doesn’t it look right)
#806
February 11th, 2009 21:50
hee,hee,hee
#807
February 11th, 2009 22:29
Hi KJ and Brian
So the Chelts/GN double what is the criteria to win the £1 M?
You guys said Betfair changed rules to make more difficult.
Can you re-clarify what rules are?
#808
February 11th, 2009 22:43
Systems, cut and pasting you from last years blog:
So how do we find the winner?
Take basic trends (ONE)
8 to 12 years old
handicap rating above 135 on the day
weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
won over at least three miles
run in at least ten chases
won a chase worth at least £17,000
If this STILL holds good , then I think we disregard PREISTS LEAP at our PERIL.
Tom O’Leary (Preists Leap 10st 11lb): “I’d be fairly happy with that. Weight isn’t really an issue with this horse because he’s very strong. As long as the ground is soft I think he’d have a really good chance.
“I was expecting something like that because he went up 11lb for winning his second Thyestes.
“He’ll have a couple of days hunting and one more run and then it’s straight to Aintree.”
DAN thinking discounting anything currently at 10’11 is risky when we still don’t know who is staying in. Hedgey carried 11’01 to win in 2005. Think PREISTS and HTE HAVE to be in the mix.
We’re all talking about great stats + COMMON SENSE. Let’s not be shortsighted. If weights do go up 5lbs (they may not if Exotic etc runs) that still puts PREIST and HTE on 11’02. Why on earth would it not be possible for the 09 winner to carry 1 lb more than the 05 winner? To say ‘O, they’re not Hedgehunter’ would be foolish.
Let’s work as a team and keep those 2 in the mix.
#809
February 11th, 2009 22:55
PS inc 10’11 brings in Black Apalachi and One Coll Cookie too.
#810
February 12th, 2009 01:00
Hey showlad good to see you, everyones been off watchin the footy I think, so have I Beckham still our only world class player! thats why I payed it any of mine!
If u didn’t catch it earlier, Wacky is like in prison on the weights competition winners page, that bizarrely I won!!! been visiting him in his cell, posting sections from here but had enough now, been on here all day! It was the best prize finding him there bleeting! I told him it was going to make some peoples day! ah its sad, his computer can’t take all these postings. I’m off- bye
#811
February 12th, 2009 01:13
Ha, ha! Cheers KJ, hope your mum and dad are feeling better.
#812
February 12th, 2009 04:22
Dan’s list of 25 looks good – assuming the weights go up 5Lb or so.
There are 7 on the list I like – the 4 I gave pre-wts.
Character Building – needs to win a big pot soon.
Darkness – needs a few runs.
Southern Vic.
Parsons Legacy.
Plus
State of Play.
Kilbeggan Blade – maybe.
Brooklyn Brownie – maybe.
Also one more that I like, that is not on Dan’s list – Silver Birch – ok, big ask but nice wt.,in training last 4 months, won point to point last saturday and has 2 more prep runs lined up before GN. My namesake had only 2 prep runs, both in March, before winning GN.
#813
February 12th, 2009 09:55
Showlad Says:
February 11th, 2009 at 10:43 pm
DAN thinking discounting anything currently at 10′11 is risky when we still don’t know who is staying in. Hedgey carried 11′01 to win in 2005.
Fair comment – i was just going off the trends we have used and 11st 1 was the cut off. If you want to side with caution then anything on 10st 11 can remain. What I will say that Hedgehunter went onto prove what a top class horse he is and therefore could carry the weight of 11st 1. Some of the horses on 10st 11 could go on to do great things as well.
So from what I thought we had down to 25 is now back up to 28 – the 3 additions are;
BLACK APALACHI
HEAR THE ECHO
PREISTS LEAP
One Cool Cookie doesnt qualify on the basis it has not won a chase over 3m.
#814
February 12th, 2009 10:39
Showlad Says:
February 11th, 2009 at 10:29 pm
Hi KJ and Brian
So the Chelts/GN double what is the criteria to win the £1 M?
You guys said Betfair changed rules to make more difficult.
Can you re-clarify what rules are?
The rules for the Betfair million are:
3: Finishing first, second or third in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November; and
2: Being placed first or second in ANY race at the Cheltenham Festival in March; and
1: Winning the Grand National at Aintree in April
So to my reckoning come grand national day Exotic dancer and snoopy loopy will be in with a chance of scooping this as long as they come 1st or 2nd in any race at cheltenham.
#815
February 12th, 2009 11:11
Guys a word of caution from experience when dealing with any press quotes from Jonjo, he seems to think feeding them a constant stream of bull**** and misinformation is fair game. Eg. Last season he was claiming Exotic Dancer was absolutely fine and burning up the gallops after there were rumours in the press of him being injured. On the same day the much more straightforward owner Robert Ogden confirmed he’d picked up an injury in training which had badly set back his progress.
Personally I think there is the same chance of Exotic Dancer running the GN as there was Denman ie. None. He was only entered on the basis of Denman being top weight imo.
Of the other top weights Madison now has to be considered a serious contender in the GC so all of his training focus will be dedicated to winning that race can’t see Pipe taking him to the GN win or lose in the GC.
Snoopy could possibly make the GN as he is shooting for the order of merit but a much more likely and pragmatic approach would be to go for a safer and easier to score in race on Thursday or Friday like the bowl. Both the Nicholls horses would be doubtful runners to me as he has much more fancied runners down the list, mainly Big Fella. Notre’s trainer is already talking about the national as only an option, so he is far from set.
In my opinion most of the top weights are a bit of a house of cards ready to collapse as they were all banking on Denman being the one to bear the big burden. I’d be shocked if there wasn’t a minimum of a 5lb pull in the weights between now and race day.
#816
February 12th, 2009 11:15
In Dans list of top 25 and will be in my shorter list of eight which I will post soon (the last two or three are hard to sort out)
Rambling Minster
Meeets ALL the trends (perfect trends in fact!
OR 143. Won Scottish Borders “National” over 32f (and has won this season).
Beaten 9L by Cloudy Lane in a C2 HC in Jan 08. Cloudy Lane now 11.02, Rambling Minster now 10.01
25/1 – 40/1 still available (the only weakness – needs to drop below 40/1 sooon)
#817
February 12th, 2009 11:26
Anyone out there layed Big Fella Thanks? Now challanging for FAV (I hope he makes it as I hate having my money on the GN FAV and dont wont BC to be FAV).
Its all down to Tom Segal in the Racing Post. In all my years of watching the GN I have never seen such stupid advice.
Lay,Lay and Lay again and see your bank balance grow all thanks to Tom Segal.
When was the last time a 7 year old won the GN with one win from five (!!) Chase starts?
If Tom Segal reads this perhaps you could explain why you are robbing so many “blind” punters of so much of their hard earned money (in thes very difficult times)to make the bookies even richer – a bloody disgrace!
#818
February 12th, 2009 11:42
Unfortunaely for Tom segal I always keep back copies of the weights day Racing Post (an essential for any serious GN study).
Last year a certain Tom Segal in the Racing post recommended Chelsea Harbour at 501 with the title “Forcast is for a Cloudy Day” – well it certainly was when in came in a poor 6th – beaten 32.5L! (7/1 JT Fav and again so much wasted punters money).
As an aside last year Comply or Die was listed 19th in the betting list. I suggest you draw a line under anything with more than one 50/1 quote. This line is after Rambling Minster on Page 3 (rules out Cornish Set with x4 50/1 quotes).
#819
February 12th, 2009 11:48
Brody Says:
February 12th, 2009 at 11:11 am
Personally I think there is the same chance of Exotic Dancer running the GN as there was Denman ie. None. He was only entered on the basis of Denman being top weight imo.
Not sure i can agree with that brody. If Denman had of been entered how much weight would Exotic dancer of been given! Surely it wouldn’t of been that much less (I know a couple of pound makes a difference but they must of also known it was highly unlikely that Denman would of run anyways).
Im sure we’ll all find out after Cheltenham how serious connections are of the top horses but i think its gonna be a 5lb max rise in weights.
#820
February 12th, 2009 11:56
Talking about top weight, is Nozic likely to line up? If so, I think it may well be him.
#821
February 12th, 2009 12:10
Hi guys and girls,
Thank you all so much for your excellent work on here but we are starting to get some problems because the thread is just so big! Also, some text readers cannot receive updates once the thread hits 750 so I will be setting up a new thread – Grand National Tips – I would be grateful if you could move on to there.
It would be excellent if our regular posters would post an overview of where they currently are with their selections to kick things off on the new thread. Just a short post each of what your current fancies are and a summary of what you feel the most relevant points to consider would be for any novice punter coming to the race (and our site) looking for inspiration.
Once again, thanks for all the marvellous input but lets try and make sure we keep all the banter nice and friendly:-)
#822
February 12th, 2009 12:16
Dan – thanks for including those on 10′ 11 in list – can’t wait to see it develop.
Brian – thanks for £1M info
No word from you Systemsman, but then you always blank my posts for some stange reason (even when I wished you well after your time in hospital), but hey not to worry.
OK Guys looking forward to our developing short lists, and develop they will, especially after the races over next few weeks!
I will issue my short list soon and my long list – which will include my hot tips plus those that warrant a safety bet and why.
I’m in no hurry compiling mine – but with my research so far Rambling Minister is head and shoulders and I can’t believe he’s still on 40s.
#823
February 12th, 2009 12:25
OK Admin, thanks.
See y’all on new thread!!
#824
February 12th, 2009 12:47
Last post on here as its a reply to Showland.
Its not deliberate Sowland honestly so here is a reply.
“So how do we find the winner?
Take basic trends (ONE)
8 to 12 years old
handicap rating above 135 on the day
weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
won over at least three miles
run in at least ten chases
won a chase worth at least £17,000″
Yes it still stands but this was only Part 1 from last year – you need to look at the other parts as well.Some other points form oter parts.
These are also important.
RPR minium 144 (very, very important)
TS minimum 111 (but 128 or over best)
Won a Class 1 or 2 Chase (any kind)
2 to 7 prep runs (19 year trend)
Now the OR is a little bit more constroversal. On ten year trends you would use:
OR 136 to 144
But to play safe for the short list I am using
OR 135 to 146 (I would note exclude a point or two higher if carrying under 11.00 on the day). Having said all that I still am confident the winner will be OR 135 to 144!
Near the GN date you need to consider.
Last prep race 20 to 49 days before GN
Finished 1st/2nd or 3rd in a Chase(any kind) over 25f or more. Quite a few possible short list runners still need to do this.
33/1 or less on the day.
There are lots more and it depneds on how many trends you want to use and how dependable they are in you own view.
The starting point is Dan’s excellent short list of 25 (or is it 28 now).
#825
February 12th, 2009 13:12
Thank you Stephen and Brody. To clarify my current list A is the list of 9&10 year olds not already eliminated, giving them a slight edge over 8,9 and 12 year olds who are in List B. Current lists are as follows:
LIST A
EXOTIC DANCER (FR) 9-11-10
CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02
WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-01
CHELSEAHARBOUR(IRE) 9-11-00
SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-00
CANE BRAKE (IRE) 10-10-13
ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13
COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12
STAN (NZ) 10-10-12
BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 10-10-11
PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 9-10-11
BALLYFITZ 9-10-10
KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 10-10-10
MIKO DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 9-10-10
MY WILL (FR) 9-10-10
L’ANTARTIQUE (FR) 9-10-09
STATE OF PLAY 9-10-08
MON MOME (FR) 9-10-06
BUTLER’S CABIN (FR) 9-10-05
HOBBSHILL 10-10-05
OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 9-10-05
REVEILLEZ 10-10-04
ENDLESS POWER (IRE) 9-10-03
GOLDEN FLIGHT(FR) 10-10-03
L’AMI (FR) 10-10-03
SIMON 10-10-03
CORNISH SETT (IRE) 10-10-02
FLEET STREET 10-10-02
MUSICA BELLA (FR) 9-10-02
DARKNESS 10-10-01
SOUTHERN VIC (IRE) 10-10-01
GARDE CHAMPETRE (FR) 10-10-00
HOT WELD 10-9-13
KILBEGGAN BLADE 10-9-13
BROOKLYNBROWNIE (IRE) 10-9-12
CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 9-9-12
CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 10-9-12
HIMALAYAN TRAIL 10-9-12
TUMBLING DICE (IRE) 10-9-12
ARTEEA (IRE) 10-9-11
IDLE TALK (IRE) 10-9-11
ICE TEA (IRE) 9-9-10
MALJIMAR (IRE) 9-9-10
COMPANERO (IRE) 9-9-09
MATTOCK RANGER (IRE) 9-9-09
BAGAN (FR) 10-9-08
DIX VILLEZ (FR) 10-9-08
PATSY HALL (IRE) 9-9-08
LIST B
MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 8-11-08
SNOOPY LOOPY (IRE) 11-11-05
STAR DE MOHAISON (FR) 8-11-05
NOTRE PERE (FR) 8-11-04
NOZIC (FR) 8-11-03
AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (IRE) 11-11-01
IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 8-11-00
KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-10-13
OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12
HEAR THE ECHO (IRE) 8-10-11
ONE COOL COOKIE (IRE) 8-10-11
SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 12-10-06
PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 11-10-04
ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 8-10-03
FUNDAMENTALIST (IRE) 11-10-03
BATTLECRY 8-10-02
IRISH INVADER (IRE) 8-10-01
RAMBLING MINSTER 11-10-01
SILVERBURN (IRE) 8-10-01
TRABOLGAN (IRE) 11-10-01
ALWAYS WAINING (IRE) 8-10-00
CERIUM (FR) 8-9-11
KELAMI (FR) 11-9-11
IRON MAN (FR) 8-9-09
NICHE MARKET (IRE) 8-9-09
BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 8-9-08
BIBLE LORD (IRE) 8-9-08
FLINTOFF (USA) 8-9-08
HOMER WELLS (IRE) 11-9-07
IN THE LOOP(IRE) 11-9-07
LIST Z
CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 7-10-01
OEDIPE (FR) 7-10-00
ZABENZ (NZ) 12-9-11
The next stage is based on the weights, which is complicated by guessing whether or not Exotic Dancer or Madison Du Berlais choose to line up. They will both go for the Gold Cup and general feeling is that this will be a race too much. Top weight could even fall to Cloudy Lane, currently on 11-2, which would raise all horses weights by 8 pounds. Horses carrying 11-3 or over don’t win nationals in modern times (1985 was the last time this occurred). So regardless of who is top weight we can immediately rule out:
EXOTIC DANCER (FR) 9-11-10
MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 8-11-08
SNOOPY LOOPY (IRE) 11-11-05
STAR DE MOHAISON (FR) 8-11-05
NOTRE PERE (FR) 8-11-04
NOZIC (FR) 8-11-03
Chances are both EXOTIC DANCER and MADISON DU BERLAIS will pull out after Cheltenham and weights will rise leaving several additional horses over the 11-3 mark. I am not going to totally eliminate those horses but they are falling into my doubtful lists – will track them in my further analysis but with lower ‘grading’ and more scepticism.
If just EXOTIC DANCER fails to show up weights will go up 2 pounds putting the following horses on unwinnable marks:
CLOUDY LANE 9-11-02
AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (IRE) 11-11-01
WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 10-11-01
The above are joining others in LIST Z.
If both EXOTIC DANCER and MADISON DU BERLAIS don’t run weights are up 5 pounds so the following join the above on 11-3 or more:
CHELSEAHARBOUR(IRE) 9-11-00
IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 8-11-00
SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 9-11-00
CANE BRAKE (IRE) 10-10-13
KNOWHERE (IRE) 11-10-13
ROLL ALONG (IRE) 9-10-13
COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 10-10-12
OLLIE MAGERN 11-10-12
STAN (NZ) 10-10-12
These poor souls are going into a new list, namely LIST Y.
Further weight analysis will be carried out once our choice of horses has thinned out somewhat.
I have spreadsheets and further comments on the above horses and lists if anyone would like them. E-mail called_andryka@yahoo.co.uk
At present there are 39 horses in LIST A (down 9), 21 in LIST B (down 9), 9 in LIST Y and 6 in LIST Z, 45 horses have been eliminated (a further six).
Later to today I will be removing those horses that won’t make the distance (a further fifteen!). Please let me know if the above doesn’t make sense to you.
#826
February 12th, 2009 15:49
My five against the field and therefore the ones I would ‘tip’ if I was inclined to do tips:
Character Building 4pts E/W @ 33/1 25/1
Its probably all down to Saturday for this horse a good run and it looks well in at the weights for a place run at least, I’d say he got the best deal out of all from the handicapper. Solid consistent stayer, never fallen ever or UR only PU once. Never finished outside the top 4 in any race and has run well against top opposition, 2nd Butlers over 4miles at Chelts, 3rd behind Denman with Madison in 4th. Really fancied this last year has been campaigned with one target the GN, made sure I was on early this year.
Garde Champetre 4pts E/W @ 40/1
Love this horse I’m firmly on the bandwagon, it’d be great to have a first female jockey in Nina win it too. Got on entry list day, have always liked the horse and as soon as I saw him on the entry list my money went down quick before the price tumbled. Stays longer than the mother-in-law, very sound jumper and as the price tag suggests has a nice touch of class to compete in this company. Given luck in running can’t see him out of the first 4 home. The Silver Birch parallel is also very encouraging. Finally think this was given an absolutely cracking weight to win off.
Southern Vic 4pts E/W @ 33/1
Not a horse I fancied at first but backed on the advice of a few very knowledgable people, also ran my trends through it and like its profile alot ticks most of teh boxes nicely. Irish trained always a bonus too and Ted Walsh is a man who knows how to win this race. Likes soft ground so nicely covers that option if it should come up soft on the day. Again this one has been very well treated by the handicapper.
Butler’s Cabin 8pts win @ 20/1
Loved his run last year before Beechers as he was cruising comfortably. McCoy will be back on board so safe hands there, only negative for me is the huge hike in the weights was hoping he’d run off near bottom weight. Backed to win as he will either bolt up, fall or eat the starter. Yes the horse has previous of being a bit of a nutter. As for the FR thing Best placed French bred horse since 2000:
2000: Mely Moss – 2nd @ 25/1
2001: Blowing Wind – 3rd @ 16/1
2002: Blowing Wind – 3rd @ 8/1
2003: Montifault – 5th @ 33/1
2004: Clan Royal – 2nd @ 10/1
2005: Royal Auclair – 2nd @ 40/1
2006: Clan Royal – 3nd @ 5/1
2007: Liberthine – 5th @ 40/1
2008: Nadover – 7th @ 125/1
Himalayan Trail 4pts EW @ 33/1
Check out his Mids national win, ok he beat average opposition but the little bugger is still motoring on after 4miles and doesn’t put in a single bad jump, if it retains all that ability its gonna run a big race. Also transfering from Sue Smith to Jimmy Mangan is like going from Bristol City to Man Utd can’t have done the horse any harm. Has jumped round the national fences in the beecher in ground he would have hated too.
Hasn’t shown much recent form but Irish trainers like Mangan and Walsh are a bunch of fiddlers with their horses, they don’t show their hand before the big one, you sometimes have to take a leap of faith and don’t get too tied up in recent form, check out his horse Monty’s Pass finished 4 of 4 in a average hurdles race before thrashing everything and I mean thrashing. Mangan’s GN horses don’t always show it on the track they do their work at home. Now check the history, Papillon did nothing the same season before bolting up. Bobbyjo won one hurdles race and FA else before the big one!
Now I could be completely wrong and the horse is shot and will run no sort of race, but at 33/1 I think there is plenty of value there even just for place money.
Also like the following and have added to my list of ones to watch in case they put in a good show or there is a big market move for any of them:
Battlecry – needs a good run soon
Beat the Boys – probably won’t get in
Companero – probably won’t get in
Cornish Sett – unplaced horses don’t come back and win, genreally
Fleet Street – needs a good run soon
Ice Tea – probably won’t get in
Rambling Minster – will he run?
Lets hope we all do as well as last year I reckon about 90% made a good profit last time, personally got the winner and 2 places from 5 runners
Regards
Ian
#827
February 12th, 2009 16:07
Whoops wrong thread.
#828
February 12th, 2009 17:34
I think Butlers Cabin and Garde Champetre are down to run at Cheltenham, if they do this would put me off and leave Himalayan Trail and maybe Character Building although still not 100% on either.
May be worth putting a bit on both now before prices tumble especially if the latter runs well at wknd.
I see Rambling Minister meets all the current trends. Interesting…
Lets try and get this list down on current info available.
#829
February 13th, 2009 12:48
Trainers comments below regarding Character Buildings chances at Haydock tomorrow. Victory here would give him a fantastic profile and will see him shorten to one of the favourites for the National.
“We’re happy enough with him and you would think conditions at Haydock should suit him down to the ground,” said Quinn.
“We were happy with his run over hurdles at Doncaster lasttime and he has come out of the race in good form.
I am already on Character Building but will be backing him again prior to the race tomorrow.
Comply and Die has been ruled out of the Haydock race as the stable are not happy with him.
#830
February 13th, 2009 13:26
Hi Domi and Performance, we’re all over on GN Tips thread
#831
March 26th, 2009 10:07
hi guys, first time post.
only 9 days away and looking for some final tips.
my top 5 being:
Butlers Cabin
Character Building
Rambling Minister
Kilbeggan Blade (based on instinct – e/w long shot)
Brooklyn Brownie (like the look of him – e/w long shot)
as far as total surprises go im drawn to comply or die doing a double or irish invader causing an upset to the book of trends!
#832
April 4th, 2009 17:43
Will look at more lessions from this race in a few days when i have got over it. But as for the trends most of them stand but forget the price (bet next year its 20/1 or under having said that!!!)
#833
April 5th, 2010 22:43
hey peeps first time on this site some very interesting reading. I have come up with a few your points of view would be of interest top 5
big fellow thanks
snowy morning
arbor supreme
comply or die
mon mome
i am going to try a tricast so i think my first 3 and maybe a slight rotation. anyone got any views please