Grand National 2009: An Accordion
September 25th, 2008Current BHB Rating at 25/09/08: 152
Current wins/runs at 25/09/08: 8 runs, 4 wins (7 runs over fences, 4 wins)
An Accordion: Overview
A three time winning point to pointer, An Accordion has also had eight races under Rules, seven of which have been over fences. The fact that he has yet to run over hurdles will probably be exploited by his very shrewd trainer at some point in the horse’s career and he now looks the type that could farm a few low quality novice hurdles as a means of warming up for an attack on a race such as the Grand National.
A winner over regulation fences at distances from 22f-25f and on a variety of surfaces ranging from good ground to soft ground. His owner Brian Kilpatrick is convinced the horse is immature and will improve still further in 08/09. He may well be right as it was an impressive end to the 07/08 season when he won two high class handicaps in succession, taking the 42k Skybet Chase at Doncaster and then following that victory up with a very game victory in the 51k William Hill Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival.
The Grand National Guide View
Those two wins have seen An Accordion shoot up 20lbs in the ratings and it is a measure of his success that he stands only 2lb behind stable companion and 2008 Grand National winner Comply Or Die. Kilpatrick’s horse is two years younger than Comply Or Die but at a current rating of 152 there doesn’t seem a huge amount of scope for his rating to go much higher if he is to be competitive in the 2009 Grand National.
Other negatives I will throw into the ring are (a) stamina doubts and (b) jumping question marks.
I’m not totally convinced about Accordion stock over extreme distances as it appears that the sire tends to equip his progeny with plenty of speed. Also, although this horse had won over 3m 1f at Cheltenham he is also a half-brother to Horus, a grand chaser in his own right but one who never really looked at ease when asked to go past three miles.
As for jumping round Aintree, although there are no obvious blemishes in An Accordion’s record, he does have a tendency to make a few mistakes (see his win at Cheltenham) and whilst these may be ironed out with more experience, any further races over fences could also increase his handicap mark.
What about the stats?
Many of the stats boys from last year will believe that An Accordion is already too high in the weights as all the winning Grand National horses in the last ten years have been rated between 136 and 144. He will also need to run in at least three more races over fences in the upcoming season to meet the minimum stats requirements on experience.
His two biggest wins over fences are not particularly strong races for potential National winners, although the 2007 Skybet Chase winner Simon has been a strong contender in the last two Aintree events.
An Accordion also won the William Hill Chase at Cheltenham but winners of that race have not enjoyed much success at Aintree recently with Kelami, Dun Doire and Joes Edge all failing to cut much ice when asked to compete in the National itself.
Conclusion
An Accordion looks a horse with the potential to rise still further in the ratings but there has to be a question mark as to if the Grand National would be the right place to hone that potential. Something like the Hennessy might be a good starting place to gauge where to head for with this horse and if he showed up well in that then it may make sense to concentrate on the decent three mile handicaps with a view to moving into conditions races rather than focusing such a young horse solely on the National.
What do you think? Is An Accordion your idea of the 2009 Grand National winner?
An Accordion is currently a 33/1 chance with VCBet.
Pav Says:
September 26th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
Too lightly raced and too young to get onto my shortlist. The Wiiliam Hill Chase (Ritz Club Chase as it was) used to be a really strong pointer for the National but, as you say, not much of a guide in recent years.
SILVER BIRCH Says:
September 26th, 2008 at 5:35 pm
I reckon he may already be too high in the weights 152 already.. that would suggest the accordion is heading for about 11.6 on the great day unless he can get it down a few pounds with a couple of quiet runs
Snake Plisken Says:
September 28th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
I’d like to see this one make the line up as i reckon he’s a fine sort but looks like he’ll carry too much weight, he had two very poor races before he won his last two-obviously to keep the weight down-they might do it again if they’re aiming him for the national
Jimmy Boy Says:
September 29th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Some interesting points made in analysis. It does seem that An Accordion could be a victim of his own success with the weights looking to be fairly high, and on young shoulders. However, I do believe this could be one to watch out for, as he seems to have bags of potential.