AGE

This to me is the strongest of the stats. No 7 yo has won since Bogskar in 1940 and no 13 yo has won since Sergeant Murphy in 1923. No 7 yo has placed since 1971 and no 13 yo has placed since 1969. 6yo’s and horses 14yo and over have an even worse record, with no winner since 1915 and 1853 respectively! It is further backed up by the poor record of 8yo’s in the race (approximately one in 20 8 year olds running in the Grand National win it, compared with one in 10 for eleven year olds) SO it is not as if loads of 8 year olds win, which would suggest that it was possible and likely that a 7 year old will soon win.

41 runners aged 7 or under and 13 or over have run in the last 10 years, so enough have tried their luck in the race.

However, near the front of the market is the Paul Nicholls runner, BIG FELLA THANKS. What do we make of his form? Well to me who looks like a horse who wants further than the 3 miles or so he has been running over. On the flipside, he has made jumping mistakes in a lot of his races, although the number of these appears to be decreasing with experience.

BUT, we don’t know he will stay the 4 and a half miles. Whilst he may look like he wants further than 3 miles, that could mean 3m4f for all we know! There is a big difference between wanting further than 3 and actually getting every yard of the 4 and half miles at Aintree.

We also don’t know how he will handle Aintree, we don’t know how he’ll handle the step up in class, we don’t know how he’ll handle the big field and he hasn’t really beaten any classy horses yet.

In short, if we are going to say that this horse can win, than we may as well say it about all 106 of the horses still declared! He does not appeal to me and reminds me of the hype surrounding Cloudy Lane last year, and we all know what happened there.

Of the others aged 7 or under; OPERA MUNDI has had his chances now at this level and been found wanting on each occasion. After his run at Haydock last time on his favoured soft ground, I think he is one we can safely call a no-hoper! The last run of CANT BUY TIME was extremely impressive, beating some decent sorts in the process. He too looks like he is crying out for further, and his jumping is generally sound, but he went up 13lb for that win, so further improvement is by no means certain. He looks an interest one for the future, but it would take a big leap of faith to say he can win the National on form to date. He holds a couple of entries at Cheltenham though, so an impressive run there may see him shorten from his current 33/1 in the market.

EUROTREK is 13 and has been off the course since Apr 07 when he was pulled up in the National, carrying 11_08. Whilst he is older, This former Becher winner is very lightly raced (only 8 chase runs) owing to a huge number of injuries sustained over the years. This could of course mean that he is closer to his best than most 13 yo’s are. He is currently set to carry 10_09, which should put him on a good racing weight come race day. That said, I would be concerned with the fact that he hasn’t proved he is race fit yet. Were he to put in a good spin between now and raceday, he is one that could, plausibly, win. Just think how we would kick ourselves if a former Becher winner won off a mark just 4lb higher than his Becher win!

In summary, I would be extremely shocked to see the Age statistics being broken this year. They are just so strong. Even ignoring them, its hard to fancy any of the 6,7 or 13 yo’s this year with any confidence. If they are to be broken however, then Eurotrek is the one most likely to do it I think, but only with a semi decent run between now and the day.

A WIN OVER 3 MILES OR MORE

Those left in without a win over 3 miles or more that I can actually see lining up are;

King Johns Castle
One Cool Cookie
Hobbs Hill
Musica Bella
Tumbling Dice

It would take a brave man to say KING JOHNS CASTLE doesn’t stay the trip just because he hasn’t won beyond 3 miles!! In fact, whilst stamina might not be his forte, he quite clearly can get the 4 and a half miles, although I worry about horses who need to challenge late from the rear of the field; Not only are they more likely to encounter traffic problems this way, it also means they have to find a late burst of speed to make up the gap at the end of a marathon trip, something which is obviously difficult to do. In addition to this, KJC hasn’t been seen on a racecourse since last year’s National, so it’s hard to have any confidence in him at this stage. That said, he is lined up for a run at the weekend, so his fans will be keeping a keen eye on that one, I am sure.

ONE COOL COOKIE has twice finished in the first 4 in the Bobbyjo, so is no donkey, but he looks as though even 25f (the furthest he has raced over) is stretching his stamina to its limits.

One that definitely makes no appeal is HOBBS HILL, who has never run beyond 2m4 and has struggled this year after a promising season last year, and MUSICA BELLA has done all his racing in France. The form is nothing to get excited about, although he has finished 2nd over 28f.

TUMBLING DICE ran last year and unseated at the 3rd. He has run over 25f and equipped himself quite well over this trip as a novice, but I don’t think anybody could possibly say he has done enough to merit any consideration; appears to me as if he is being entered again to give connections a ‘day out.’

In summary, KJC can of course win this great race, but I certainly won’t be backing him for the reasons outlined above.

What do you guys think?? Agree or disagree with any of the above?

Will deal with Weight, RPR and a C1 chase place nearer the time, and probably after Cheltenham.

Peace.