Can Denman win a Grand National?
August 19th, 2008Will Denman try his luck in the 2009 Grand National? Or will connections make us wait until 2010 to see the great horse jump the Aintree fences? Or is it all just pie in the sky and sanity will take over and the currently undefeated chasing star will be wrapped in cotton wool and focused on winning umpteen Gold Cups?
No Double For Oats
The last Cheltenham Gold Cup winner to try his luck in the Grand National was Kim Bailey’s Master Oats. The 1995 Gold Cup winner had two attempts at the Grand National, the first just over three weeks after his success at Cheltenham when he finished 16 lengths 7th to Royal Athlete and then two years later when he finished fifth behind Lord Gyllene. On both occasions he ran off a mark of 173. Denman currently sits on a mark of 182. Does this suggest winning a Grand National is too big a task for Denman or for any horse who has to give so much weight away?
Perhaps it was the fact that Master Oats never had ideal conditions for his attempts at the Grand National seeing as he needed soft ground to be seen at his best and both his Aintree races were on good ground. Most recent top weights in the National have had handicap marks in the mid to high 150s so the difference between them and Denman is quite staggering.
Great Performance From Suny Bay
The only other horse in recent times to race in the Grand National with a mark of 170 or over is Suny Bay who finished a gallant second in 1998. This really is a fine effort considering Charlie Brooks’ grey was trying to give 23lb to a Welsh and Scottish National winner in Earth Summit. So high class weight carrying performances are not out of the question in the Grand National!
Suny Bay’s performance also highlights that only six other horses were in the handicap proper that year out of a thirty-seven runner field. Using this as a guide and imagining that Denman’s handicap mark (or the mark used for the National) stays fairly consistent then if he were to take part in the National nearly all of his opponents would be out of the handicap! If that were the case he must therefore be meeting them on better terms than he should be and theoretically his chances of success must improve. I appreciate he will be carrying tons of weight more than some other potentially decent horses but I would suggest that, with respect to the likes of Master Oats and Suny Bay, its been a long time since we’ve seen a horse as good as him in the National.
Denman: The New Crisp?
I’m a big fan of Crisp and his attempt to give weight to Red Rum in 1973 and Denman’s bold, attacking style reminds me of that great horse and much as I would normally shy away from horses with big weights in the National I think if Denman does turn up at Aintree then the race needs to be looked at with a completely different approach. The fact that this horse has won one Hennessy off top weight (admittedly not the best Hennessy ever) but also that his connections are talking about going back to Newbury to start his 08/09 campaign there suggests that they feel that they have a horse capable of consistently winning quality handicaps with top weight as well as the top class conditions races. Very few horses have been campaigned in this very positive way in recent years and perhaps we may yet see this great horse become the first since L’Escargot in 1975 to do the Gold Cup/National double.
What do you think? Can Denman win a Grand National? Will he turn up in 2009 or is 2010 more likely? Should the conditions be changed if it means 90% of the runners end up out of the handicap? Let us know your views on the Gold Cup winner in the Grand National
SILVER BIRCH Says:
August 21st, 2008 at 10:11 am
Hello Admin - fascinating topic to kick off and discuss denmans grand national chances…..I still believe that great champion steeplechaser that he is , the aintree distance and carrying top weight will ultimately do for him and that there will be one horse lurking further down the hadicap carrying less than eleven stone that will prove too strong in that taxing final run in from the last . The most fascinating question would be just how much would Phil Smith compress the Handicap and award Denman a rating significantly less than his 182 . Recently the cream of the crop ability wise have had to run off a mark of 155- 158 . Maybe the extent to which Phil Smith is prepared to cut Denman some slack could be the ultimate determinant of his chances… If he turned up with anything less than 160 even the most ardent of trend followers would surely have to think about having a saver on him . One things for sure we shoudnt be tinkering about with the conditions of the race because of one horse … if he turns up and has to run off 170 it probably just means a better class of horse will win carring less than eleven stone
Pav Says:
August 28th, 2008 at 9:56 am
I think it would be great if Denman ran in the National. Just out of interest, what sort of weights does that mean the other market leaders would be running off? Personally I can’t see him running in 2009 unless something perculiar happens.
Incidentally, I notice one of my shortlist, Hot Weld, is trading at 29/1 on Betfair. Have some comments been made recently on its chances that could have influenced the price?
admin Says:
September 8th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Hi Pav,
Below are ten of the high ranking horses in the current betting and my calculations based on current handicap marks as to how a Grand National might start to look with Denman taking part. I agree he probably won’t take part this year but you can never be sure with Harry Findlay and I can’t imagine the situation will change that much re weight/ratings if he is aimed at the race in 2010. So, let’s take a look:
Denman 182 12-0
Snowy Morning 162 10-8
Comply Or Die 154 10-0
King Johns Castle 152 9-12
Slim Pickings 147 9-7
Butlers Cabin 145 9-5
Hear The Echo 145 9-5
Iris De Balme 144 9-4
Himalayan Trail 141 9-1
Character Building 138 8-12
Obviously the senior handicapper could seriously tweak the figures depending on if he wants to enhance or decrease Denman’s chances. The more horses there are out of the weights, the better chance Denman would have (theoretically!)
It could well be that if Denman were to run Phil Smith might take a chance and let him run off something in the mid to high 170s and keep more horses in the handicap that way. Either way Denman is still going to have carry top weight but his giveaway to the other horses will be narrowed.
How would you feel about the prospect of Irish Grand National winners running from out of the handicap at Aintree? Could you back Denman with such a huge weight on his back? If the weights were something like the above do any of the highlighted runners particularly appeal to you at this stage?
Let us know what you think.
admin Says:
September 8th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Oh, and I’ll look into the Hot Weld situation and post asap - I see he has been introduced into the betting by a few of the major high street firms as well. Looks like its time to add him on to our site!
Gammers Says:
September 24th, 2008 at 10:28 pm
Hot Weld is definately an interesting one to have a look at, I believe he would fit most of the trends identified on this site last year and was one I was keeping an eye on for 2008 until the injury situation came to light. Would be interesting to see any early season runs.
Also interesting to see how the Denman ‘irregular heartbeat’ situation develops - not the ideal characteristic for a National winner I would think.
Jimmy Boy Says:
September 25th, 2008 at 10:05 am
The fact of the matter remains that Denman is going to be aimed at the Gold Cup all the way until March. Gamblers on this site regularly state that they don’t like their fancies running at Cheltenham.
Also, he won’t be training over National type jumps until very late on, so it doesn’t ruin his Gold Cup preparations.
I am assuming that he won’t be running in the National next year, which might be handy for the punters, because with the weights admin has quoted it looked very hard to predict a winner.