Comments on: Can Denman win a Grand National?

By: Jimmy Boy

Jimmy Boy — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 09:05:54 +0000

The fact of the matter remains that Denman is going to be aimed at the Gold Cup all the way until March. Gamblers on this site regularly state that they don’t like their fancies running at Cheltenham.

Also, he won’t be training over National type jumps until very late on, so it doesn’t ruin his Gold Cup preparations.

I am assuming that he won’t be running in the National next year, which might be handy for the punters, because with the weights admin has quoted it looked very hard to predict a winner.

By: Gammers

Gammers — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 21:28:48 +0000

Hot Weld is definately an interesting one to have a look at, I believe he would fit most of the trends identified on this site last year and was one I was keeping an eye on for 2008 until the injury situation came to light. Would be interesting to see any early season runs.

Also interesting to see how the Denman ‘irregular heartbeat’ situation develops - not the ideal characteristic for a National winner I would think.

By: admin

admin — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 11:07:55 +0000

Oh, and I’ll look into the Hot Weld situation and post asap - I see he has been introduced into the betting by a few of the major high street firms as well. Looks like its time to add him on to our site!

By: admin

admin — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 11:06:24 +0000

Hi Pav,

Below are ten of the high ranking horses in the current betting and my calculations based on current handicap marks as to how a Grand National might start to look with Denman taking part. I agree he probably won’t take part this year but you can never be sure with Harry Findlay and I can’t imagine the situation will change that much re weight/ratings if he is aimed at the race in 2010. So, let’s take a look:

Denman 182 12-0
Snowy Morning 162 10-8
Comply Or Die 154 10-0
King Johns Castle 152 9-12
Slim Pickings 147 9-7
Butlers Cabin 145 9-5
Hear The Echo 145 9-5
Iris De Balme 144 9-4
Himalayan Trail 141 9-1
Character Building 138 8-12

Obviously the senior handicapper could seriously tweak the figures depending on if he wants to enhance or decrease Denman’s chances. The more horses there are out of the weights, the better chance Denman would have (theoretically!)

It could well be that if Denman were to run Phil Smith might take a chance and let him run off something in the mid to high 170s and keep more horses in the handicap that way. Either way Denman is still going to have carry top weight but his giveaway to the other horses will be narrowed.

How would you feel about the prospect of Irish Grand National winners running from out of the handicap at Aintree? Could you back Denman with such a huge weight on his back? If the weights were something like the above do any of the highlighted runners particularly appeal to you at this stage?

Let us know what you think.

By: Pav

Pav — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 08:56:51 +0000

I think it would be great if Denman ran in the National. Just out of interest, what sort of weights does that mean the other market leaders would be running off? Personally I can’t see him running in 2009 unless something perculiar happens.
Incidentally, I notice one of my shortlist, Hot Weld, is trading at 29/1 on Betfair. Have some comments been made recently on its chances that could have influenced the price?

By: SILVER BIRCH

SILVER BIRCH — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 09:11:55 +0000

Hello Admin - fascinating topic to kick off and discuss denmans grand national chances…..I still believe that great champion steeplechaser that he is , the aintree distance and carrying top weight will ultimately do for him and that there will be one horse lurking further down the hadicap carrying less than eleven stone that will prove too strong in that taxing final run in from the last . The most fascinating question would be just how much would Phil Smith compress the Handicap and award Denman a rating significantly less than his 182 . Recently the cream of the crop ability wise have had to run off a mark of 155- 158 . Maybe the extent to which Phil Smith is prepared to cut Denman some slack could be the ultimate determinant of his chances… If he turned up with anything less than 160 even the most ardent of trend followers would surely have to think about having a saver on him . One things for sure we shoudnt be tinkering about with the conditions of the race because of one horse … if he turns up and has to run off 170 it probably just means a better class of horse will win carring less than eleven stone