Big Weekend For 2009 Grand National Hopefuls
The Racing Post Chase has become a traditional race in which Grand National hopefuls continue their Aintree preparation and 2009 certainly looks to be continuing that tradition with no less than eleven Grand National entries contesting from the twenty strong field at Kempton today.
Included amongst them is one of the current favourites for the National itself, Big Fella Thanks, who is also favourite for today’s race. Much is expected of Paul Nicholls’ inexperienced seven year old and he will need to put up a good performance to maintain his high profile in the Grand National market.
Other National entrants running in the Racing Post include Endless Power, winner of the Grand Sefton over the National fences in November who looks to be on a mission to prove he has the stamina for races such as this and Silverburn, also from the Nicholls’ yard who is becoming a little frustrating and would need to put in a good performance today to be seriously considered at Aintree.
Elsewhere this weekend, other major National hopefuls are stepping out over in Ireland. Snowy Morning, Black Apalachi, Southern Vic and One Cool Cookie all contest the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse so this should prove hugely informative for punters. The race looks ideal for Southern Vic and anyone considering backing him for Aintree might want to take the 25/1 available with Blue Square as this price will surely contract if he runs well today and the booking of Paul Carberry looks ideal in a race where jumping could be key.
Also in action tomorrow at Naas in a handicap hurdle is the well fancied Himalayan Trail – don’t forget to set the videos for that one and I’m sure we’ll get plenty of comments about his chances (or not!) after the race!
Keep letting us know all your great analysis and tips – we really appreciate it.
This post has 26 comments
#1
February 21st, 2009 13:47
Interesting trend that i’ve not noticed before is – All six Irish winners had run over hurdles on at least one of thier last two starts before they won the national.So as it stands you have to put a question mark against SOUTHERN VIC.What do you think guys?Put more on RAMBO me thinks!!!
#2
February 21st, 2009 13:55
Normally because the Irish trainers have run their horses over hurdles to protect their chase rating then run them over fences when the weights came out. Southern Vic ran in a 2m1f which in effect is the same thing because he’s not going to beat a horse like Mansony over that trip. I don’t see this is that relevant to be honest.
#3
February 21st, 2009 15:36
We will see on the 4th feb if you are right!!But the last 6 winning Irish horses have followed this trend and i thought it was worth stating!!
#4
February 21st, 2009 18:21
Not sure what we are going to see on the 4th of feb! LOL
Southern Vic didn’t impress me too much today never travelled as smoothly as I’d like and made a horrible mistake three out. Only a jockey of the class of Carberry or Walsh would have stayed on and Paul did. But that was his race over and done with as he came to a standstill.
BA looked impressive but not sure we too much about him today as he got his ground, doubt he will get that ground on the 4th april, but if he does he is a major chance. Snowy didn’t look like a national contender and One Cool Cookie simply not in this class.
Shame about Big Fella had a bit running on him today thought he could have won this but never in with a prayer for the GN, would have liked him to win and shorten in the GN market too. Luckily for me had a saver on Nacarat EW which landed a nice touch. Nacarat possible one to look for come GN2010.
#5
February 21st, 2009 18:22
should have read “BA looked impressive but not sure we learnt too much about him today as he got his ground,”
#6
February 21st, 2009 19:00
thanks brody, didn’t see fairyhouse race and appreciate the round up. I had a little on BA to watch online and…nada! but I won some money off em to make up for it!
Yet again Wacky is imprisoned! to be honest theres so much there in tother cell, that when you’ve been busy like I’ve been, its too much, almost convinced recently by SV fans glad I wasn’t! BC has just been mentioned again! can u believe it! Rambo on!
#7
February 21st, 2009 23:15
Wahoo..2 bets today..Nacarat and Merigo..shame I didn’t do a double..Nacarat looks v classy..but Nicholls pleased with BFT run with regard to Aintree
#8
February 22nd, 2009 19:14
HT came 11th today and it certainly won’t be carrying my money after that display.On the hole this weekend results hasn’t put any of the horses that ran in the picture for a win at Aintree.Im still flying the flag with one horse and im getting more and more confident as the days go by.
#9
February 22nd, 2009 21:35
Sorry i should say that Black Apalachi would have a chance if the weights don’t rise over 5lbs.So my shortlist is Rambling Minster and Black Apalachi at the moment.
#10
February 22nd, 2009 22:44
hey wacky, thought I’d pop in for a visit, but I only got a minute, so here goes. I am looking good after yet another confirmation weekend of dodgey jumping and lightweighted contenders fall by the wayside! SV HT etc are going to have to sprout wings or something!
My anteposts are still ok, all have form that seems so elusive to so many,
Black apalachi- late developer on the up
Garde champetre- jumps, stays,
Cornish sett- dark horse from the backstreets
Rambo on!!!!!!!!!!!
#11
February 23rd, 2009 10:38
Perhaps I watched a different race? I thought Southern Vic was travelling very well indeed when we had our mishap at the third last, at which point it was race over and trot home. I wouldn’t be too disappointed with that, as long as the same mistake doesn’t happen at aintree. Sadly I am speaking having not touched SV at the longer prices.
#12
February 23rd, 2009 16:46
Blimey that is an optimistic reading of the run from SV Sportygirl! May I suggest rewatching it with a more critical eye, maybe I am being overally harsh but I expected much more from this horse, he was never moving fluently and the mistake at the 3rd was almost certainly due to tiredness in my opinion he’d just come under heavy pressure from BA and Snowy for the first time and was struggling to keep pace at that point. If he was that leggy around fairyhouse after 3m I can’t see him seeing out the trip round Aintree though my wallet very muc hopes he does
The only straws for me to clutch at is a) Walsh hasn’t got him fully wound up yet and still has some work to do to be ready b) the ground was against him and he will act better on the much faster Aintree track.
If you doubt my reading of the run try Sporting life’s form summary:
“raced mostly 2nd, not fluent at times and mistake 12th, improved to dispute lead when blundered badly 3 out, lost all chance and eased, mistake last opened 7/4 touched 2/1″
Hardly a glowing report
#13
February 23rd, 2009 17:16
Just watched the finish again and it’s amazing how different people read a race. I thought that the winner was under a lot more pressure than SV at the 3rd last and with three decent jumps I believe that SV would have won and be sitting as favourite or JF now. It’s all about differing opinions but that run has not put me off Southern Vic, exactly the opposite in fact. Perhaps you are being too critical ? lol
#14
February 23rd, 2009 17:30
I agree with sporty girl, i think southern vic was going well,but i aint sure about him winning,still a live bet for aintree though,33s wont last long,
#15
February 23rd, 2009 17:36
sporty girl – ur right – i think people overreacted when criticising svs overall jumping – i thot it was perfectly adequate . the point that concerns me is that he jumped well when they were just hunting around . but when the heat was turned up thats when his jumping went to pot . i agree wholeheartedly however that he was going g better than black app at the time . i remain unconvinced at the mo but id love him to prove me wrong – interesting that he is still holding up in the betting however which suggests connection may not have given up hope yet ..!
#16
February 23rd, 2009 18:23
Biggest blot on my book is Notre Pere, heard that this was unlikely to go to Aintree but on strict form lines this one has me worried. Any news would be welcome.
#17
February 23rd, 2009 18:51
SportyGirl,
Fair points regarding Southern Vic. I’ve backed the horse and immediately after the race thought I had done my money for sure. As I said on the other thread though, after viewing the race again and also looking through his form, that initial reaction was a bit rash. He was going well when he made that blunder and the form book tells us he’s a better horse going left handed so here’s to hoping.
Silver Birch makes a good point about the market. A few firms nudged him back out to 33s straight after the race but one has since clipped him back into 25s. His price on Betfair is also holding up at around 26/27 so people must be backing him somewhere.
With regards Notre Pere, he looks to me to be a slow horse that loves a slog in the mud and he’s going to have a massive weight. On decent ground he won’t have the pace and though testing ground would suit, he will have to slog a massive weight through it and fellow mudlarks like Priests Leap and Black Apalachi would have much less of a burden.
#18
February 23rd, 2009 19:10
Fair comments Stayer, but Notre Pere looks to have a bit of class and worries me, even with a burden.
#19
February 24th, 2009 09:04
Interesting thing about Southern Vic; he seems to have made a bad jumping error in Bobbyjo chase when things were hotting up,(is this correct?) and unseated at the canal turn in becher just when the race was really starting.
#20
February 24th, 2009 11:40
Interesting thing about Southern Vic; he seems to have made a bad jumping error in Bobbyjo chase when things were hotting up,(is this correct?) and unseated at the canal turn in becher just when the race was really starting.
You can watch the Becher Chase on the BBC website. Have a look at Souther Vic’s unseat, it’s one of the softest i’ve ever seen. The horse barely made a mistake and had been jumping well until then.
#21
February 24th, 2009 12:20
Jimmy Mangan obviously thinks Himalayan Trail needs more work to get him fit he’s entered him for another Hurdle race on Thursday at Thurles only over 2m2f. Fingers crossed for a more encouraging run though that short trip will surely not suit!
#22
February 24th, 2009 12:24
Btw one more thing on SV before I drop it, lets not rewrite history he did not jump fine until his error at the 3rd last, (which under almost any other jockey would have gone down in his form book as U) he also made mistakes further out particularly at the 12th which had me very worried those kind of errors will be exposed over GN fences I fear.
#23
February 25th, 2009 14:55
Re Hear The Echo, from the RacingPost website;
However, Morris has issued a warning to ante-post punters thinking of backing Hear The Echo.
Last season’s Irish National winner has been prominent in the betting for the Aintree spectacular ever since his display at Fairyhouse last April.
Mouse Morris: issues warning
PICTURE: Mark Cranham But his treatment at the hands of the English handicapper has left Morris in two minds over whether to bring the eight-year-old across the water.
“He’s in good form. We were training him for the English National but the way the weights have gone I have to make a decision whether to go for the Irish one instead as he’s a lot better off,” said Morris.
“He’s got 10st 11lb and that’s way too much compared to his mark over here as he’s only rated 145. He’s only getting 4lb off War Of Attrition and that doesn’t make logical sense.
#24
February 25th, 2009 15:21
Wacky just how many masts do you have this year with a flag flying from them.
Not so long ago you said that you had 2 horses and they were southern vic and Rambling minster.
Now that you think southern vic had a bad run at the weekend you then say that rambling minster is your only horse and then you add in Black Apalachi.
Dont get me wrong i think you have some very valid and good points to make on the GN but please come real and tell the truth about which horses are already carrying your money this year and then how many more will carry it before the big day.
We do not need a repeat of last year when yu claimed D’argent was the one and then after the national you came on boasting how you picked Comply or die out and everyone should of listened to you.
#25
February 25th, 2009 15:45
How old is Mouse Morris? He’s like a 9 year old petulant school child, whose not happy that his team is losing football at play time, its my ball and I’m taking it home. Maybe he should just be happy WoA got such a lenient mark not moaning about his jobbed up good thing beng nobbled. Butler’s got a far bigger pull and I haven’t heard any such whining from Jonjo, his racist whining on weights day did him no favours either.
#26
February 26th, 2009 19:11
Hi WTHIW,In answer to your question i’ve only backed 2 horses so far.They are the only 2 that fit the trends on most counts and they are Southern Vic(Small e-w)+ Rambling Minster(Bucket loads e-w)Will i back any others?That depends on how some horses run between now and the race and how much the weights go up.I do think that Black Apalachi will be placed but worried that the weight will tell in the end.The reason i’ve gone off SV is that its breeding(strong gale)has a poor record and the last 6 irish bred winners have run over hurdles in at least 1 of its last 2 runs before the national.Hope that helps and sorry about last year as like this year i will try 2 win big on 1 horse and save on others(COD)that fit the trends!!!