Comments on: Bet365 Gold Cup 2009

By: Pablo

Pablo — Sun, 25 Apr 2010 12:44:36 +0000

Well done to all winners and especially TC – you have been very consistent in your support for Church Island

Hourigan has a nice young horse in Mr Cracker for chases next season

Amazing run from some of you guys on here that backed all four big priced winners – Bluesea Cracker, Always Waining, Merigo & Church Island

Top tipping – Showlad, TC etc etc

Personally I’ve done my proverbials this April!

Time to take a break & recharge the batteries for Epsom

Keep up the excellent work next jumps season!

By: Neil

Neil — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 13:02:46 +0000

After a luckless Royal Ascot, (suppose I got carried away with the success of the Derby), I think I’ll stick to the National Hunt scene.Thanks anyway Pablo.
Don’t know if you’re montering the Grand National 2010 Early Fancies but do you know of an horse call “Surface To Air” was reading some old archives “Summer National 2008″ and Surface To Air won this race and mentioned as a possible for the 2010 Grand National by Pav.
As I’ve mentioned I’d had no interest in summer jumping so Surface To Air is an horse unknown to me.

By: Neil

Neil — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 12:03:41 +0000

Thanks Pablo will study these.

By: Pablo

Pablo — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 10:08:09 +0000

Neil – the attheraces website contains a microsite dedicated to Royal Ascot – within that there is a Stats Guide to all 30 races which might help

By: Neil

Neil — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 00:44:36 +0000

To Pablo or anyone else on this site. Are the any good trends for any races at Royal Ascot like the gold cup for example.

By: Pablo

Pablo — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 23:50:38 +0000

Neil – my thoughts for next year

I think the stats say that a horse has to have good form as a 3-y-o (RPR 116+ preferably 118+ or be unbeaten or have placed in a Guineas) – normally this leaves only 2 or 3 horses – then you take a judgement and back one or two – but this year the UK challenge was pathetic and we had 5 possibilities (3 trained and owned by the same team who won most of the trials)

I hope next year we have better UK representation

Quite often the Derby is won by a horse that never wins another race – peak at the right time and get rewards – but there are so many other international prizes to be won later in the season that perhaps some trainers look to further in the season with their better middle distance prospects

The Guineas has provided in the past 4 years:

2nd Sir Percy – won Derby

5th Eagle Mountain – 2nd Derby (Authorized only qualifier on my system in this year)

2nd New Approach – won Derby

1st Sea The Stars – won Derby

At the moment the Guineas is the best trial and any horse has to put up a very good RPR to win if it hasn’t run in a Group 1 as a 3-y-o

Epsom requires a combination of speed and stamina but in an era where 10f horses rule you have to have the speed – stamina alone will only work in soft ground (unlikely in June)

By: Neil

Neil — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 20:22:12 +0000

Hi Pablo.
Been studing your system on the Derby quite effective.Some big prices selected,at first I thought that the five mentioned were the first five in the betting and I thought that you were odds on to get the winner.
I’ve learnt though that the beauty of your system is when the is not a lot of candidates in it,sure in the ten year period you had a few favourites in it,but you are looking for quailty and sometimes people latch on to these. What surprise me was some of the bigger prices (even a 20/1 which finished third in 2002)
Taking the average price of all runners in your ten year period the price would be 11/2 or just taking the average price of your winners the price would be 9/2.I think that your system is quite good,using 9/2 as a mark of value seems fair and although you would have not had Sea The Stars you would have had the 1999, 2000, 2003, 2006 and 2008 winner and many more winners to come(at value for your money.)
This is why I think this site is excellent lots of different points of view going around to learn from. Next year I be looking at your system closely.

By: Pablo

Pablo — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 14:35:26 +0000

Think the Derby is extremely dodgy for antepost bets (Crowded House?) – almost every horse to win in past 21 years has shown RPR of 116+ (last 11 years 118+) as a 3-y-o going into the race

The exceptions are:

Lammtarra and Shaamit only raced at 2
Generous (Dewhurst winner at 2) and 4th in Guineas – Group 1 form at 3
Commander In Chief and High Rise – unbeaten in only 3 starts before Derby

So there are some very strong trends – albeit the shortlist was 5 this year from 12 runners!

By: Neil

Neil — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 22:24:41 +0000

Golden Sword could take all the beating at ten to twelve furlongs in Group two races. I believe he’s entered in a few at Royal Ascot. The winner Sea The Stars next target might be the Eclipses.

By: maureen

maureen — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 21:35:44 +0000

Same here; really thought I’d got third with Golden Sword! Masterofthehorse looks worth following, though. Needed a place win to recoup quite a few losses; must remember to avoid the Derby next year as most of my horses didn’t even run!