Comments on: Becher Chase 2008: Trends and Form Analysis

By: Systemsman

Systemsman — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 19:44:30 +0000

Daniel
Soon, very soon but I want to put a little more on first – I cant afford to do it quite all in one go as there will be many others to cover yet. The bookies watch everything and my own money affected the price of one of two last year so I’am taking no chances this year until I’m ready.

By: Daniel

Daniel — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 11:11:36 +0000

Systemsman

Whilst I value your work very highly, I dont think this blog has quite enough coverage to effect the prices of horses for the GN!!! Not this early anyway!

Its more likely that other people realised the same thing as you did.

And if your bet is on, tell us!

By: Systemsman

Systemsman — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 19:49:46 +0000

One think we do need for the winner of the GN and that is a horse who has SPEED (unless the ground rides Heavy a plodder cannot win the GN – only a horse with speed and class)and class with the right weight.
The Becher Chase added no new information but the Henessy is a different class with plenty of horses with speed. A placed horse in the Hennessy either this year or last with many of the other key trends is always worth looking at.
I still think thre is one outstading horse for the 2009 GN worth an early big bet (mines on)but as soon as you post the name the odds go way down (well they did in 2008) so for the moment I shall sit on the name for a little longer. But, hey what do I know – I got both the Scots Nat and Becher Chase wrong!

By: SILVER BIRCH

SILVER BIRCH — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 18:52:25 +0000

southern vics now trading on betfair for any interested parties

By: SILVER BIRCH

SILVER BIRCH — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 18:32:43 +0000

excellent summary admin .. i reckon aintree in april will draw upon a different set of skills and requirements,such as the ability to travel well asnd jump at a much higher speed on probably much faster ground . as denis oregan said , “it was like a days hunting” i reckon the stakes will be raised to a higher level come april . nevertheless take nothing away from black app – he fully deserved his win although i think the hadicapper could pull the curtain down on his aintree dreams for 2009 . roll on the hennessy . some interesting candidates for the nat lurking at the bottom of the weights..

By: admin

admin — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 01:12:30 +0000

I’ve watched the race a few times now and I’m not sure how much bearing it will have on the Grand National. The going dictated a completely different pace than these horses can expect on good ground in April. Case in point is the winner, Black Apalachi. Assistant trainer Richard Hughes suggested that they were going so quick in the National last year that the horse got taken off its feet and ended up on the deck after the 2nd fence. I can’t imagine that going up to 147 or 148 after this win will help with his ability to deal with the conditions in the National itself. It was an impressive display on Sunday but I’d have to have reservations about him winning a National.
As for Mr Pointment, surely he has no chance of staying 4 1/2 miles? His stamina appeared to give out last year in the National and he put in a performance on Sunday which seemed to suggest that he certainly wouldn’t have been keen to go any further. I wouldn’t entertain the idea of running him in it again if I was lucky to own a horse that talented – surely there are plenty of other good races to focus on for him?
Oulart ran well for a horse who wouldn’t like the conditions and he looks the sort who could come back for the National.
Gungadu looks like a horse with too much on at the weights at the moment and Idle Talk and Irish Raptor (grrrr!) looked like non-stayers in the conditions.
I will have to reserve judgement on Himalayan Trail. I was quite keen on him last year but I can’t understand why his connections would sell him unless they got made a huge offer. If he was sold at a public sale and someone saw the sale price, I’d be interested to know as that will give some indication (to me anyway) how much of a long term chance he really has.
I also can’t make my mind up about Southern Vic. My head says he was beat at the time of his fall but my pride wants to believe he would have got a place at least.
It was great to see some good horses over the big fences and really whetted the appetite for the next few months.

By: SILVER BIRCH

SILVER BIRCH — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 20:52:51 +0000

Hi kj -good luck …still think theres some value to be had at the bigger prices on betfair …so if u have any lively outsiders its worth lumping on , even if its only for a few quid here and there .. good luck anyway and keep those thoughts comin…only another 4 and a half months to go

By: kj

kj — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 20:40:21 +0000

I agree nice trial for the trail, stealthy.
winners of the becher don’t have a great winning record for the main event, schooling around this course is a much better stat.
black apps and himy trail prob need more chase wins over longer distances too maybe, but they are going in the right direction.
I liked the look of joe lively couple of weeks ago, but with such good cheltenham form may have to discount him. Still looking an interesting line up now, going to hold off til the weights are declared, while you guys teach me a thing or two about how to get the most out of my bets!!! 110s on betfair I am such a novice

By: Systemsman

Systemsman — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 20:38:56 +0000

With the ground Heavy I did not bet I’am pleased to say – so hard to predict (Racing Post forcast in the mornig was G/St))

By: SILVER BIRCH

SILVER BIRCH — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 16:19:13 +0000

i reckon the 1 of interest from all of that is himalayan trail – finished in 5th and will be dropped a few pounds down to a nice mark..worth keeping an eye on