Two and a half mile chasers – Can they win the National?
January 24th, 2008Hi Cloy - Don’t even bother looking up the form, he’s a two and a half miler!
Michael Hourigan’s Hi Cloy won the two and half mile Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles recently and the trainer immediately nominated the Grand National as the target for this winner of four Grade One races and ten races overall. The horse was rated 150 before his latest win yet the victory did not create a ripple in the Ante Post Market for the National and Hi Cloy is still available at 40/1 and bigger.
Why should that be? The answer could be that Hi Cloy is perceived as unlikely to stay the 4miles 4furlong trip in the National as all but one of his ten wins have come at 21 furlongs or under. This may or may not be true but how many people have just dismissed Hi Cloy’s chance because they view him purely as a two and a half mile chaser and they’ve read the stats that say those horses “can’t win a National”?
Don’t just swallow the stats - do your own research
My point is that horses that run predominantly over shorter trips shouldn’t be dismissed because of the distances they currently run over but their chance should be analysed on their probability of staying the much longer trip.
Amberleigh House - Grand Annual to Grand National!
Let’s look at Amberleigh House as an example. The 2004 Grand National winner had raced 34 times under National Hunt Rules before attempting a trip in excess of two and half miles! He had raced at the Cheltenham Festival on two occasions prior to trying three miles for the first time as a 9yo - in the County Hurdle and the Grand Annual – not the sort of background you would expect from a future Grand National winner. So much so that in his first attempt at the National Fences he was allowed to go off at 150/1 behind Red Marauder – punters were obviously convinced he would not stay the trip. He was Brought Down on this occasion but hindsight suggests that 150/1 was a massive price.
Yet Amberleigh House’s breeding suggested all along that longer distances would not be a problem as he was out of Buckskin and a mare with plenty of stamina in her pedigree and two other 3mile plus victories ensued later in his career as well as the National victory.
Amberleigh House’s victory in 2004 shows that horses with extensive experience at shorter distances will not NECESSARILY be inconvenienced by stepping up in trip in the National. Therefore horses such as Hi Cloy, Vodka Bleu and Le Volfoni should be considered on their individual merits for this year’s race and not dismissed purely as two and half mile handicappers.
Let us know what you think about this theory.
Neil Says:
January 28th, 2008 at 6:04 pm
I agree with these comments regarding any 21/2 milers. I would like to have some comments on the “cross-country” races esp. at Cheltenham. I ruled Silver Birch out of my short list of 5 for the 2007 race as his only 3m+ placing had been over the Sporting Index cross-country race, much to my frustration as he would have been in my mixrd f/casts with MCKelvey!!
admin Says:
January 28th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
Hi Neil,
Thanks for responding. I think 2 and half milers have it all to prove in the National but some DO have the capacity to stay and some commentators just seem to write them off without looking. Slim Pickings last year is a good example. Most of his form was over 2 and half miles but there was some form over three miles and a pedigree that suggested he may get the trip. As it happens he probably just didn’t see it out but it was mighty close and he was available at 100/1 and bigger in the week before the National. I think he was ignored because of a bad run in the two and half mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham festival but more importantly (to me anyway) was the fact that Tom Taaffe decided that this horse should be his first runner in the National and that Barry Geraghty wanted to ride it - hardly likely to be out with the washing, was it?
With regards Cross Country races I’m in the process of doing some research on that very subject so please keep checking back as I’ll be putting some stats up very soon (and a few opinions!)and then let me know if that covers the areas you are interested in.
I will also be looking at combination exactas and forecasts as a potential bet on the National so let us know what sort of plan you use when taking this bet on?
Steve Says:
January 29th, 2008 at 7:49 pm
I too put a line through Silver Birch last year due to his cross country run. But not so much that it was a cross country race but the fact that he ran at the festival. In recent years most winners have been trained exclusively for the national and those trained for a festival race havent done that well.
I think there was close on 4 weeks between Cheltenham and Aintree last year so maybe I shouldnt have read so much into it. But its closer to 3 weeks this year so should we be ignoring all Grand National runners who run at the festival??
admin Says:
February 4th, 2008 at 12:42 am
I was interested in Steve’s post regarding the time between the Cheltenham Festival and the Grand National and I too have always been wary of horses running at both meetings but are those fears founded? I’ve done a little bit of research and it seems not . Obviously I can’t comment on the number of horses that have been unsuccesful in running at both meetings over the last ten years but the following have run at Cheltenham in mid March and then gone on to be placed in the Grand National in the first week in April (and Bindaree even won it!). Sample used going back to 1998:
Hedgehunter 2nd 2006 2nd Gold Cup
Royal Auclair 2nd 2005 4th Gold Cup
Simply Gifted 3rd 2005 3rd Mildmay Of Flete
Lord Atterbury 3rd 2004 PU Foxhunters
Bindaree 2002 1st Unp William Hill Hcap Chase
What’s Up Boys 2nd 2002 5th Gold Cup
Blowing Wind 3rd 2002 1st Mildmay Of Flete
Niki Dee 3rd 2000 PU William Hill Hcap Chase
Addington Boy 4th 1999 5th Gold Cup
Suny Bay 2nd 1998 5th Gold Cup
St Mellion Fairway 4th 1998 Unp William Hill Hcap Chase
I’ve not included 2007 for comparison as there was four weeks between the two meetings and was unable to use 2001 as Cheltenham was cancelled due to foot and mouth.
I think this list shows that there is no real reason to believe that a horse will perform badly if it has run at the Cheltenham Festival and the National comes within three weeks. In fact perhaps we should re-examine the Gold Cup, William Hill Chase and even, dare I say it, the two and half mile Racing Post Plate (ex Mildmay of Flete) as potential races to watch for horses who might come on to the National?
I believe time will show that we will be able to add the Cross Country Race to this list. More on that next week……
trevor Says:
February 5th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
Trends can be very helpful but we must,nt get to carried away with them.When it comes to the national i wish we,de get out of this notion of 2 1/2 milers being national winners,i believe a comment which may have originated from a certain N henderson.Indeed it is possible that a horse may have been campaigned over 2 1/2 miles and yet shown the stamina to win over 4 1/2 miles,but i can,t remember one.If you look at some of the more recent winners there are many leasons to be learnt,such as Hedgehunter,clearly the best horse in the race(2nd in gold cup) but only allotted 11st 1lb,Silver birch,a previous winner of the becher,so proving his liking for the fences,bobbyjo,winner of the irish national the previous year,so proving his stamina,got in on 10 stone,Papillon 2nd in Bobbyjo,s irish national conceding 11lb,Monty,s pass,winner of the kerry national handicap chase and 2nd in the topham at aintree and Miinnehoma,beaten 18 3/4 lengths by the fellow in the gold cup but allotted only 10st 8lbs.The facts we should be looking for are class,stamina,experience of jumping the fences at aintree and a decent racing weight,as they say,its not rocket science,time and time again a combination of these statistics apply to the winner,so with this in mind,this years race should,nt be to hard to assess.
trevor Says:
February 6th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
Apologies for a slight error in the previous message,Hedgehunter was in fact 2nd in the gold cup the following year but had beaten pizzaro(a double grade 1 winner)prior to winning the national.