Hi Cloy – Don’t even bother looking up the form, he’s a two and a half miler!

Michael Hourigan’s Hi Cloy won the two and half mile Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles recently and the trainer immediately nominated the Grand National as the target for this winner of four Grade One races and ten races overall. The horse was rated 150 before his latest win yet the victory did not create a ripple in the Ante Post Market for the National and Hi Cloy is still available at 40/1 and bigger.

Why should that be? The answer could be that Hi Cloy is perceived as unlikely to stay the 4miles 4furlong trip in the National as all but one of his ten wins have come at 21 furlongs or under. This may or may not be true but how many people have just dismissed Hi Cloy’s chance because they view him purely as a two and a half mile chaser and they’ve read the stats that say those horses “can’t win a National”?

Don’t just swallow the stats – do your own research

My point is that horses that run predominantly over shorter trips shouldn’t be dismissed because of the distances they currently run over but their chance should be analysed on their probability of staying the much longer trip.
Amberleigh House – Grand Annual to Grand National!

Let’s look at Amberleigh House as an example. The 2004 Grand National winner had raced 34 times under National Hunt Rules before attempting a trip in excess of two and half miles! He had raced at the Cheltenham Festival on two occasions prior to trying three miles for the first time as a 9yo – in the County Hurdle and the Grand Annual – not the sort of background you would expect from a future Grand National winner. So much so that in his first attempt at the National Fences he was allowed to go off at 150/1 behind Red Marauder – punters were obviously convinced he would not stay the trip. He was Brought Down on this occasion but hindsight suggests that 150/1 was a massive price.

Yet Amberleigh House’s breeding suggested all along that longer distances would not be a problem as he was out of Buckskin and a mare with plenty of stamina in her pedigree and two other 3mile plus victories ensued later in his career as well as the National victory.

Amberleigh House’s victory in 2004 shows that horses with extensive experience at shorter distances will not NECESSARILY be inconvenienced by stepping up in trip in the National. Therefore horses such as Hi Cloy, Vodka Bleu and Le Volfoni should be considered on their individual merits for this year’s race and not dismissed purely as two and half mile handicappers.

Let us know what you think about this theory.